Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/11/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
935 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2014
.Synopsis...
A weak warm front may bring a few light showers to far northern
Shasta County through this afternoon. Dry conditions are expected
elsewhere with milder temperatures. Building high pressure will
bring clearing skies with daytime highs back to several degrees
above normal through Friday. Another frontal system will bring a
threat of light precipitation to most of the forecast area on
Saturday with daytime highs dropping to near normal. Rebuilding
high pressure will bring a return of drier conditions and warming
temperatures on Sunday, with daytime highs around 10 degrees above
normal through next week.
&&
.Discussion...
A weak upper level shortwave and surface front brushed through the
far northern part of the state overnight through this morning. This
has generally brought just a few hundredths of an inch of rain
inland to the northern and Coastal mountains, though locations on
the coast saw up to an inch. Redding saw a hundredth of an inch,
with a spotter in Burney reporting 0.03 in. Chester had 0.04 in of
rain, with a brief period of freezing rain. Radar shows few
returns currently, mainly north of Shasta County. Short term meso
WRF and HRRR models show shower potential trending down and have
lowered pops accordingly. Will keep just a slight chance of a
few showers will continue through the afternoon hours over the far
northern portion of Shasta County before the upper trough exits
completely.
Patchy fog and mist have developed this morning through portions
of the Valley, along with some patches of low stratus clouds. The
clouds should clear by late morning with linger have diminishing
by late afternoon. Plan to increase highs today a couple of
degrees with a somewhat warmer start and afternoon sunshine. Have
decided to go a little lower than some of the guidance, though,
due to the possibility of clouds lingering a bit longer than
expected. Forecast update will be out shortly.
Another Pacific storm system is forecast to move onshore on
Saturday bringing clouds and cooler temperatures and a threat of
light precipitation to most of the forecast area. Models have been
fairly consistent on this feature for the last several runs. The
latest 12z GFS even digs this system a little farther south than
the 06z run with increased rain and snow amounts. EK
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
The extended models are all in agreement that a strong ridging
pattern starting on Monday will bring another period of above
normal temperatures and dry weather. Locally breezy winds are
likely to develop late Sunday into Monday night with breezy
periods again on Tuesday. Expect enhanced northerly flow in the
valley, generally along the western half of the Sacramento Valley.
In addition, Northeast to East winds will be enhanced along the
Western Sierra Slopes. For Wednesday into the weekend, the upper
level ridge axis will move overhead which will bring lighter winds
to our region. JBB
&&
.Aviation...
Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys mainly in the Northern San Joaquin
Valley and isolated in the Sac Valley thru 20z as weak wx system
exits the region. Conditions expected to improve to VFR during the
afternoon. Strong ridge prevails over the region tonite and FRI
with VFR flight after possible morning local MVFR/IFR conditions
in stratus and fog in the interior valley. Light Nly wind flow at
the surface.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
611 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MILDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. SOME FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN
IS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SAT AFTN THROUGH SUN AFTN...
NOT MUCH TO ADD TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION PROVIDES...AS VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION INCHES NORTH TOWARD THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
NW CT. TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING TO JUST BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
PLACES...SO FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREATER
CAPITAL REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...WITH MAINLY UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TO THE NORTH
AND WEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
LARGELY DUE TO SOME SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH PASSED EAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLIER
TODAY...AND ALSO DUE TO SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS DUE TO
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 4000-6000 FT AGL.
LOOKING TO OUR SOUTH...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHERE LOW/MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES. SHORT-TERM
MODELS...SUCH AS THE RAP13 AND HRRR SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF
FORCING TRANSLATES NORTH NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT...AND GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 4 AM FURTHER N AND W. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST HYDROMETEORS
SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIQUID...ALTHOUGH SOME SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS INITIALLY. SFC TEMPS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
JUST BARELY ABOVE FREEZING...ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES THIS EVENING...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...AND EVENTUALLY RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP BEFORE SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. IN
ADDITION...EVEN IF SFC TEMPS ARE AROUND OR A BIT ABOVE
FREEZING...THE GROUND REMAINS VERY COLD FROM THE RECENT COLD
SPELL...SO UNTREATED SURFACES MAY ACCRETE A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE...EVEN WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. THEREFORE...A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AREAWIDE...ALTHOUGH THE
ENDING TIMES OF THE ADVISORY ARE EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND LATER...MID MORNING...FOR NORTHERN AREAS...WHERE
SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPS MAY LINGER IN SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS. TOTAL
ICE ACCRETION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...GENERALLY UNDER ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT MAY STILL HAVE HIGH IMPACTS ON TRAVEL DUE
TO THE FROZEN GROUND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...AS MENTIONED...SOME NORTHERN AREAS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST VT MAY REMAIN NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK THROUGH 9 AM EST SAT AM...WHERE POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY QUITE
DENSE...WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR AS THE INCREASINGLY MILD AND MOIST
AIR DRIFTS ACROSS THE VERY COLD GROUND. IT ALSO MAY BECOME QUITE
BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS/BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS...WHERE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 35-45 MPH AT TIMES. IN VALLEY AREAS...NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH WIND DUE TO A RATHER STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...BUT SHOULD
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...SOME
STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX WITHIN NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED VALLEYS. THEN...AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY...A BAND
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE FROM W TO E. THIS BAND OF RAIN COULD EVOLVE INTO A NARROW
COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND RADAR TRENDS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED.
SAT NT...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL RAINBAND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE EVENING. BEHIND IT...A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LINGERING SHOWERS OR RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE RAIN
ENDS FROM W TO E IN MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME SHOWERS
OF RAIN...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS LATER AT NIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMS. WEST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER AT NIGHT...ESP WITHIN THE MOHAWK
RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/BERKSHIRES.
SUNDAY...A BRISK WEST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP DOWN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.
HOWEVER...DESPITE GUSTY WINDS...TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN THE PACIFIC ORIGINS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS. SOME
SHOWERS OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESP
EARLY...ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOWEVER...SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO
REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SUN NT-MON...GENERALLY FAIR...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT MINS
TO FALL INTO THE 20S...AND MON MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS...WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MEAN RIDGING/SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF A PAIR
OF DISTURBANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS.
THE 12Z GFS...GGEM AND MOST GEFS MEMBERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATING AND
ALLOWING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE LOW TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER FAVORING A SOUTHERN
STREAM DOMINATED SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY RACES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND THEN PHASES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM...ALLOWING FOR A
RATHER DEEP AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION.
GIVEN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING LARGE AMPLITUDE
PATTERNS IN THE EXTENDED...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY...SIDING CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN ITS WAKE. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS TROUGH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL
SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME AS MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES TO MUCH OF THE
REGION BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION APPROACHES THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HOWEVER IT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S
TUESDAY...BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN THE UPPER 20S AND MID
30S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL INITIALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE COOLING AND SETTLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ALL
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF/KALB/KGFL FROM 03Z TO 09Z SATURDAY AT KALB/KPSF
EXTENDING TO AS LATE AS 12Z-15Z SATURDAY AT KPSF AND KGFL.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 09Z-15Z
SATURDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. THE MAIN COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE MOVING INTO THE REGION UNTO AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND HOLD NEAR IFR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS TONIGHT. AT
TIMES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...KGFL...KPOU...AND
KPSF MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LLWS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SHRA...RA...FG.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT ICE JAM FLOODING.
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH
VERY MILD AIR BEING USHERED IN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SOME SNOW MELT. SOME MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF OF AN INCH
TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THE RAIN WILL FALL ON FROZEN GROUND WHICH WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF
AND MAY CAUSE SOME STREET AND OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT AND BREAK UP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ON SOME
RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING WILL BE
GREATEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME
WILL INCLUDE...BUT NOT BE LIMITED TO...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT
WILLIAMSTOWN AND EAGLE BRIDGE...AND THE WALLOOMSAC RIVER AT
BENNINGTON.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING OR BELOW. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CTZ001-013.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ063>066.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ047>054-058>061.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR MAZ001-025.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR VTZ013>015.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1255 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OUT AS WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND
CONTINUED MILD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
BKN-OVC MID LVL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE WEAK ECHOS ON
UPSTREAM RADARS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE BOX CWA
BORDER BUT STILL FEEL THERE MAY BE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES
POSSIBLE. IN EXTREME W MA/CT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THE WAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...AM NOTING DECENT SUBSIDENCE
DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE SO RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKIES/POPS/TEMPS/DWPTS WITH THIS
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL INVOKE BROAD SCALE ASCENT OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE /CONTINENTAL IN NATURE/ RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT /IN ADDITION TO OCEAN-EFFECT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WATERS/. HRRR IS HINTING AT POSSIBLE FLURRIES BUT IT
APPEARS THE BETTER ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH WITH MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N FROM THE SE CONUS. CONSIDERING
W WINDS /BREEZY ALONG THE SHORES AND ADJACENT WATERS/ AND EXPECTED
PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATING A SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE /ALBEIT STILL A LITTLE BRISK OVER THE WATERS AND ADJACENT
SHORES/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLIDES E ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN S/SWLY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF A WARMER-MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND S
WINDS...LOWS WILL RANGE AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-TEENS /WARMER ALONG
THE SHORES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND
* LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
A PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
POLAR VORTEX RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE LACK OF ANY HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS.
08/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE MILD WEATHER
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFS AND HOLDS ON TO THE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE
TOP FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY. WEST
COAST RIDGE AND MIDWEST TROUGH SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE.
MODELS ARE STILL FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AS
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME
LIGHT QPF IS GENERATED FRI MORNING WHICH MAY MEAN SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES FOR OUR REGION. WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET...WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVER OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
TEMPERATURES BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE ENHANCED.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
MONDAY...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT COOLER...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT...
VFR. GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE W-NW.
FRIDAY...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY MOVING
FROM W TO E INTO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ON SOME
RUNWAYS. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THESE -SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DURING THEM.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN SNOW.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED INTERIOR FZRA POSSIBLE. LOWERING TO
IFR LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS BUT ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT. OCEAN-
EFFECT CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM. BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KTS DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH LIGHTER
FLOW TO THE SOUTH...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TO 10-15
FT OVER OPEN WATERS. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LIKELY. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND
FOG LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1207 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE THEREAFTER...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HRRR AND RUC13 HAVE ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER W ORANGE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 500-700 HPA TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES THEREFORE ARE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY AT THE MOMENT
TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING A FEW MORE DEGREES IN TEMPERATURE DROP WHEN
THE CLOUDS DECREASE LATE. THEREFORE LOWS REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS
FORECAST BEFORE...MOSTLY IN THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS AND LOWER
20S FOR NYC. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE NYC
METRO AREA AND ALONG THE COAST COULD CLIMB JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW YORK
CITY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN A MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
HYDROLOGIC EVENT.
AN OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED COVERING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING ALONG LOCAL AREA RIVERS CAUSED BY HEAVY RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RISING SHARPLY THROUGH THE 50S STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN
FLOODING AS A FROZEN SURFACE GROUND LAYER THAWS RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST EAST OF NEW
YORK CITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE AND WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
RETREATING OFFSHORE AND AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN RAPID LOW LVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF ITS DEVELOPING TRAILING COLD
FRONT...AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW LVL SE WIND
JET...CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ALONG LOCAL AREA RIVERS WILL
INCREASE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
OUR FIRST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
FRIDAY...CONTAINING ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WEST WINDS UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NW ROUGHLY 12-14Z
THURSDAY MORNING...STILL UNDER 10KT. BCMG LIGHT AND VRB LATE DAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURS NIGHT...VFR.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT AM -SHSN AND SCT PM MIX PCPN.
.SAT...MVFR LOWERING TO IFR. RAIN. CHC S GUSTS 40KT+ ALONG WITH
LIKELY LLWS IN AFTN/EVE HOURS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER PSBL IN RAIN EARLY...BCMG VFR. WSW GUSTS
30-40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WSW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFELCT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS KEEPING A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA.
THEREFORE...GUSTY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE UP TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...HIGH SEAS...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH SURF
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
RETREATING OFFSHORE AND AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL GALES SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO
15 FT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION ACROSS
ATLANTIC FACING SHORES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ONCE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
MAINLY BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ICE JAM FLOODING...A HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
952 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS WELL NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY EARLY SAT MORNING. THE
WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE LIGHT AND OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME SEA FOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
LOWERING VISIBILITIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA COAST. THUS FAR
THIS HAS BEEN HANDLED BY BLOG/NOWCAST/SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HOLD OFF ON
ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT WITH 925 MB SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KTS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT CANNOT IMAGINE THIS WILL BE A
CONTINUING PROBLEM. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG MENTION IN THE ZONES FOR
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING AS WE DO HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WITH THE WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING
BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MORE OF A STRATUS EVENT WITH LOW GRAY CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT...BURNING OFF INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS SAT MORNING.
ALL CONVECTION OVER LAND IS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. WILL DO A
ZONES UPDATE SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SAT-SAT NIGHT BELOW...
SAT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BE ENTERING THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE EARLY AND PUSHING THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING. THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...THEY WILL BE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST...DECREASING CONVERGENCE. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TAP DRIER AIR THAT RESIDES OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. THE RESULT FROM THE MODEL IS VERY LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS.
BASED ON QUITE HIGH DEW POINTS THOUGH...WILL RETAIN CHANCE POPS WITH
VALUES AT 50 PERCENT IN THE NORTH AND 30 IN THE SOUTH. HAVE TRIMMED
THUNDER CHANCES BACK TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE 80S. LATEST
MOS HAS LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SOUTH. IF THE MORNING STRATUS
BREAKS UP FAST ENOUGH AND PRE FRONTAL PRECIP HOLDS OFF LONG
ENOUGH...A FEW SPOTS COULD APPROACH THEIR RECORD HIGHS.
SAT NIGHT...A 130KT H30-H20 JET STREAK DIGGING ACRS THE NW CONUS
WILL COMBINE WITH A 110KT JET LIFTING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO SHUNT THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FRONTAL TROF THROUGH CENTRAL FL. WHILE
THE COMBO OF THESE TO UPR LVL FEATURES WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ENERGY TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO S FL BY DAYBREAK...A
STRONG MID LVL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK/NW CARIB WILL
DEFLECT THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM ENERGY TO THE N.
FURTHERMORE...MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR THRU THE H85-H60 LYR WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER
OF 10C IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE FROPA.
THE FCST SOLUTION IS NOT UNREASONABLE...GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H85-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AS LOW AS 40PCT.
FURTHERMORE...THE LIFTING NATURE OF THE LEADING JET STREAK TYPICALLY
IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAKS OF STRONG/SVR WX.
FINALLY...DEEP LYR LAPSE RATES ACRS THE GOMEX/SW ATLC ARE RATHER
WEAK...GENERALLY AOB 6C/KM. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40PCT RANGE...
SHIFTING FOCUS FOR TSRA ACTIVITY FROM THE NRN CWA BTWN 00Z-06Z...AND
THE SRN CWA TO 06Z-12Z TO COINCIDE WITH THE FROPA.
TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDE MIN TEMP SPREAD.
AREAS ALONG AND N OF I-4 WILL SEE MINS DROP INTO THE M/U50S DUE TO
THEIR LONGER DURATION POST FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION...WHILE AREAS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WILL HOLD IN THE M/U60S AS THE CRUX OF THE
COLD AIR WILL NOT HAVE MADE IT THAT FAR SOUTH BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.AVIATION...CURRENTLY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN SPOTS AND MAINLY VFR CONDS EVERYWHERE THIS
EVENING. S/SSW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO 20-25 KTS TONIGHT AND ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF INCREASING WINDS ON
THE KXMR 915 MHZ PROFILER. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...STILL FEEL THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
STRATUS EVENT WITH LOW CLOUDS (IFR/LIFR) DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY BURNING OFF THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BEHIND THE LATEST SURFACE TROUGH NORTH
OF THE AREA AND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.
S/SSE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COAST 15-20 KTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. NEAR SHORE THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT SCA FOR SEAS OFFSHORE
THRU 4AM WITH CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS CONTINUING NEAR SHORE. SEAS 4-6
NEAR SHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SAT NIGHT...PREVIOUS...SOUTH WINDS STARTING OUT THE DAY WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. MARINE MOS INDICATES SPEEDS
REACHING 20 KNOTS TOWARDS EVENING AT 41009. SINCE THIS IS A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN (OVER COOL CONTINENTAL SHELF WATERS) AND THERE
WILL BE LIMITED FETCH WHEN THE SPEEDS INCREASE LATE...WILL HOLD OFF
ON AN ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE...BUT EXPECT ONE MAY BE NEEDED
OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT.
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES RAPIDLY ACRS THE
LCL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH SW BREEZE AT SUNSET WILL VEER STEADILY
TO THE W BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE NW BY DAYBREAK. OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT
OFFSHORE...UP TO 7FT OVER THE GULF STREAM N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR SATURDAY...
DAB 84 SET IN 1991
MCO 86 SET IN 1972
MLB 87 SET IN 1975
VRB 84 SET IN 1972
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1238 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SENT
AN UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING
/WHICH DID NOT END UP MATERIALIZING BUT WITH THE VERY DRY
DEWPOINTS IT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE OF A CONCERN IF THE MOISTURE HAD
BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT/. REDUCED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE THEM A LITTLE AS HRRR IS
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING IN. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS...AND LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A TAD AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS HELPED
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF GA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THICKENED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED HOLD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS AN OB IN COFFEE COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWFA...REPORTING DRIZZLE WITH THE RADAR RETURNS.
TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 40S BUT
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS. DON`T THINK THE EXTREME FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING. HOWEVER..IT STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WHERE
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP...IS IT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS AS ODDS REMAIN VERY LOW FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...IF A FEW MORE OBS START REPORTING DRIZZLE IN THE SE...WILL
CONSIDER AN ADVISORY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START RISING TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SE...LIMITING
ANY FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN IN A WEDGE SITUATION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN HOUSE 4KM WRF
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
FIGHTING THE WEDGE FOR POSITIONING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
GFS NAM WRF AND ECMWF ALL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY FOR OUR
AREA.
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF AND POSITIONING
OF THE VORT MAX. WPC NOTES THAT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THESE
MODELS...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL FROM 06Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FOR TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SPEEDING UP OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
DECREASED WITH THE SYSTEM. NOW UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN SEEMS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY IN A NOD TO ECMWF.
NOW FOR THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PAINTS A SLIGHT RISK
IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEY NOTE THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY...ONGOING PRECIP AND FROPA TIMING STILL MAKE THE
FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODELS FORECAST 35-50 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A QUICK VIEW OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 50 TO 60 KT H85 JET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SHEAR WILL
DEFINITELY BE IN PLACE THE REMAINING QUESTION IS INSTABILITY AS
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
ECMWF IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT HSLC SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITY AND THEN THE THREAT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
00Z. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
ARG
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY MVFR WITH PATCHY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD DROP TO MVFR
EVERYWHERE BY 00Z TONIGHT AS SCATTERED -RA MOVES IN /HANDLED THIS
WITH VCSH/. CIGS DROP THEREAFTER TO IFR AND THEN LIFR BY 10Z AND
REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT
VLIFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY BUT KEPT THEM LIFR FOR NOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
MVFR VSBY BUT MAY BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THAT IF CIGS BOTTOM
OUT. OFF-AND-ON -RA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AGAIN HANDLED THIS
MAINLY WITH VCSH. EAST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD /HIGHER AT
ATL/.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -RA COVERAGE.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIG CATEGORY CHANGES.
MEDIUM ON VSBYS.
HIGH ON WINDS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 47 36 49 45 / 30 60 50 90
ATLANTA 46 37 49 46 / 30 50 40 100
BLAIRSVILLE 47 35 50 46 / 20 40 50 100
CARTERSVILLE 48 37 49 46 / 30 30 40 100
COLUMBUS 47 40 58 53 / 30 40 30 100
GAINESVILLE 45 36 47 44 / 30 60 50 100
MACON 48 41 59 52 / 30 60 50 70
ROME 49 36 51 47 / 20 20 40 100
PEACHTREE CITY 46 37 50 47 / 30 50 40 100
VIDALIA 53 47 62 56 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SENT
AN UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING
/WHICH DID NOT END UP MATERIALIZING BUT WITH THE VERY DRY
DEWPOINTS IT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE OF A CONCERN IF THE MOISTURE HAD
BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT/. REDUCED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE THEM A LITTLE AS HRRR IS
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING IN. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS...AND LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A TAD AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS HELPED
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF GA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THICKENED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED HOLD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS AN OB IN COFFEE COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWFA...REPORTING DRIZZLE WITH THE RADAR RETURNS.
TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 40S BUT
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS. DON`T THINK THE EXTREME FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING. HOWEVER..IT STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WHERE
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP...IS IT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS AS ODDS REMAIN VERY LOW FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...IF A FEW MORE OBS START REPORTING DRIZZLE IN THE SE...WILL
CONSIDER AN ADVISORY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START RISING TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SE...LIMITING
ANY FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN IN A WEDGE SITUATION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN HOUSE 4KM WRF
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
FIGHTING THE WEDGE FOR POSITIONING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
GFS NAM WRF AND ECMWF ALL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY FOR OUR
AREA.
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF AND POSITIONING
OF THE VORT MAX. WPC NOTES THAT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THESE
MODELS...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL FROM 06Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FOR TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SPEEDING UP OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
DECREASED WITH THE SYSTEM. NOW UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN SEEMS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY IN A NOD TO ECMWF.
NOW FOR THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PAINTS A SLIGHT RISK
IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEY NOTE THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY...ONGOING PRECIP AND FROPA TIMING STILL MAKE THE
FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODELS FORECAST 35-50 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A QUICK VIEW OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 50 TO 60 KT H85 JET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SHEAR WILL
DEFINITELY BE IN PLACE THE REMAINING QUESTION IS INSTABILITY AS
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
ECMWF IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT HSLC SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITY AND THEN THE THREAT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
00Z. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
ARG
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL IS ON THE CUSP OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. DO THINK ATL
WILL GO BKN AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 47 36 49 45 / 30 50 40 80
ATLANTA 46 37 49 46 / 30 50 30 80
BLAIRSVILLE 47 35 50 46 / 20 50 40 80
CARTERSVILLE 48 37 49 46 / 30 40 30 80
COLUMBUS 47 40 58 53 / 30 50 30 80
GAINESVILLE 45 36 47 44 / 30 50 50 80
MACON 48 41 59 52 / 30 50 30 70
ROME 49 36 51 47 / 20 30 30 80
PEACHTREE CITY 46 37 50 47 / 30 50 30 80
VIDALIA 53 47 62 56 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
922 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
857 PM CST
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHING IN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL MARK AN END TO THE MUCH OF THE RAIN
AND A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE AS IS
FOR NOW...DUE TO ALL THE REPORTS OF ICING AND BAD TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS AND SIDE WALKS. WITH TIME...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THE
GROUND ENOUGH TO LIMIT ICING OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THIS TIME MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE ANYWAYS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WE ARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THAT OF
DENSE FOG. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN AROUND A QUARTER
MILE IN FOG. IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH RIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS DENSER FOG COULD GET INTO MY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS IT APPEARS THE DENSER FOG MAY BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. I WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS...AND I MAY JUST COVER WITH AN SPS UNLESS IT
BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE FOG COULD LAST A BIT LONGER.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
624 PM CST
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR 40...THE COLD
GROUND IS ALLOWING AREA ROADS TO BECOME ICY. WE RECEIVED NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND EVEN CLOSED HIGHWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE IS URGING DRIVERS TO STAY HOME
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN HOW BAD
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WARMING. WITH TIME THE ROAD TEMPS
SHOULD WARM AND END THE THREAT FOR ICING.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* VSBY EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO LATE EVENING...WITH SUB 1SM VSBY
POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR A FEW HOURS.
* IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER SUNRISE.
* SOUTH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS EVENING THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS HOURS. VSBY HAS IMPROVED AT THE TERMINALS BUT LOWER VSBY
IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...WITH RFD LIKELY SEEING
REDUCTION TO IFR OR LIFR SOON. MAGNITUDE OF REDUCTION AT
ORD/MDW/DPA/GYY REMAINS THE BIG CONCERN. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LOWEST VSBY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THESE TERMINALS BUT REDUCTIONS
DOWN TO AROUND 1SM STILL LOOK LIKELY AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES SO VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE
LATE...THOUGH CIGS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT.
MDB
FROM 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINALS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VARIATIONS IN VSBY WITH OBS SHOWING VALUES IN THE 2-4SM RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY 1SM VSBY POSSIBLE AS WELL. IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH
OCCASIONAL VARIABILITY BUT EXPECT THAT STEADY IFR/LIFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID EVENING AS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VSBY TRENDS BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VSBY OF 3/4SM OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS LOWEST VSBY MAY BE DRAGGED NORTHEAST TO THE
POINT WHERE THE WORST OF IT REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WITH
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR APPROACHING DO EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL
FALL THIS EVENING BUT AM NOT SURE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN DENSE
FOG. WILL CONTINUE WITH 1SM FOR NOW AND MONITOR OBS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE OF ANY LOWERING IS NEEDED. OTHERWISE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS WESTERLY AND
ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VSBY TO
MARKEDLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IFR THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE MORNING HOURS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERING POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT THIS LOOK TO OCCUR
OVER A SHORT PERIOD.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTION LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN MAGNITUDE.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...LLWS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR PROBABLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/IFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
209 PM CST
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS DRIFTED
EAST...AND STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINA
COAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
EXISTED...WITH ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL CONVERGE
UPON LAKE MICHIGAN...CONSOLIDATING INTO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...WITH THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST/EAST. THEN WITH THE LOW PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN SAT.
THEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE WEST. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD WILL BECOME NORTHWEST...BEFORE RELAXING TO THE WEST SAT LATE
AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST...STRETCHING AN INFLUENCE NORTH TO LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUN. THIS COUPLED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY SUN AFTN/EVE. THE GRADIENT HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY TIGHTER...ALONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE BECOME DEEPER
TO 28.9 INCHES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVE. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE A PERIOD OF GALES FOR THE LAKE DURING THE SUN AFTN/EVE
TIMEFRAME. THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO SLACKEN OFF FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TUE NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FOR
LAKE MICHIGAN WED AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
905 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Dense fog potential will increase as the cold front progresses
across Illinois. We already issued a dense fog advisory for areas
NW of the IL river, but the latest runs of the RAP and HRRR both
show dense fog developing after midnight across nearly all of the
remainder of the KILX CWA. Forecast soundings and current dewpoint
depressions support that scenario, so may need to expand the
advisory eastward by late evening. Upstream obs along the southern
portion of the cold front are not as supportive of dense fog
farther southeast, but we have had more snow melt from a deeper
snow pack in our areas.
Steady rainfall has generally become confined to areas southeast
of I-70. A secondary batch of rain has redeveloped from STL to
Jacksonville and is progressing to the ENE into our area. It
should mainly affect areas along and southeast of I-55 over the
next 4-6 hours.
Colder air arriving behind the cold front will have the potential
to change any lingering sprinkles or light rain west of I-55 into
snow. However, subsidence should prevail by that time and precip
should be minimal after the cold air arrives.
Low temperatures are expected to dip below freezing NW of the IL
river, with around freezing east to the I-55 corridor. That could
help create some slippery conditions on untreated and secondary
roads.
Updates to the forecast grids this evening mainly covered the
addition of fog and dense fog, as well as minor low temp
adjustments. We also added slight chance of rain or snow lingering
in the NE early Sat morning. The remainder of the forecast looks
on track. Updated info will be available shortly.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 558 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
The dry slot aloft will shut down the steady rains quickly this
evening. PIA and SPI should see rain end between 00z-01z, with the
BMI btwn 01z-02z. CMI and DEC may see a break in the rain for a
few hours after the initial dry slow passes, but an additional
wave of rain is projected to affect areas southeast of DEC to CMI
later this evening. They may see some light rain as that feature
moves across southeast IL. Dry conditions should prevail the
remainder of the night as colder air arrives after midnight. No
precip is expected to be falling when temps drop far enough for
any rain to change to snow.
Forecast soundings show ceiling heights will remain LIFR the rest
of the night. Once mixing develops after sunrise on Saturday, LCL
heights should climb to around 1500FT for the bulk of the morning.
Clearing is projected to begin developing around SPI/PIA toward
18z, and then advance eastward during the afternoon.
Winds are expected to be southerly this evening, with a wind shift
to W-SW by late evening as the cold front advances to the east.
South wind speeds will remain brisk the evening in the 14-16kt
range with gusts to 22kt at times. Once the winds veer to the
west, gusts may subside initially. However, wind gusts are
expected to develop toward sunrise as pressure rises continue
behind the departing frontal system.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Main issues for this forecast package include the rain tonight and
then more chances for end of the weekend and beginning of next
week. Models look in pretty good agreement through about 66hrs but
then differ with intensity of next system and the resulting
precip. Extended models do begin to look better once we get to the
end of next week. So, confidence in forecast in the near term is
good, but wanes with the next system(s) for the end of the weekend
and the beginning of next week. So, will take a blend for now.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
Rain will continue to move across the area tonight and should
begin to wane after midnight, and then be east and northeast of
the area by morning. By then, the low pressure area associated
with the pcpn will have moved into the Grt Lks region and the
500mb trough will be pushing through the region. So, beyond
tonight, dry weather is expected for tomorrow through Sunday.
After some ridging, another weak front will move into the area
late Sunday night. The return of moisture ahead of this system
looks weak and doesn`t seem to arrive until the frontal system is
about halfway through the area. So will have chance of pcpn for
Monday in the east and southeast only. Will also have a slight chc
of pcpn for Sun night, but this will not show up in the worded
forecast. Pcpn type should also be just rain as temps should be
warm enough through the atmosphere to support all liquid and
nothing frozen, and surface temps will be above freezing.
Temps will continue to warm as area sits in a somewhat zonal
pattern for the weekend. Guidance numbers look ok, but went a
little warmer in the southeast for tonight.
LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday
The beginning of the extended is where the models really look
different. The GFS brings another wave down across the area for
Monday night through Tue, while the ECMWF has stronger southern
stream energy that holds some pcpn back for Monday night and into
Tuesday. Because of the differences, not confident enough to put
chc pops in the forecast at this time. So will just have slight
chc pops for the time period. Both models show a second
wave/trough coming into the area from the northwest, so little bit
cooler weather will move into the region. This will cause the pcpn
type to be more of snow or rain/snow mix in the south part of the
cwa. However, since this will be slight chc, the pops will not
be seen in the worded forecast. But cloudy skies will be
mentioned. Remainder of the extended period, and next week, will
be dry. GFS brings additional chances of pcpn through the area,
but ECMWF does not. For now, going with a dry forecast seems best.
Temps will slightly warmer for Tue, but then become cooler again
for Wed and again on Friday. MEX numbers seem to have a good
handle on this currently.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ027>030-036-
040.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
628 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
624 PM CST
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR 40...THE COLD
GROUND IS ALLOWING AREA ROADS TO BECOME ICY. WE RECEIVED NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND EVEN CLOSED HIGHWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE IS URGING DRIVERS TO STAY HOME
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN HOW BAD
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WARMING. WITH TIME THE ROAD TEMPS
SHOULD WARM AND END THE THREAT FOR ICING.
KJB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
326 PM CST
THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART MOVED OUT...AT LEAST
FOR THE TIME BEING. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM
INCLUDE DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AND COVERAGE...AND THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING AFD UPDATE...THE FIRST QUESTION WOULD BE
WHETHER DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN THE SATURATED SURFACE LAYER MOVING IN
OVER THE SNOWPACK WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. OBSERVATIONS JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING VSBYS AT WORST AROUND 1 MILE AND
GENERALLY QUITE A BIT HIGHER...BUT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER THEY ARE MORE COMMONLY AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2
MILE. STILL AM NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. WINDS IN THE TEENS AND MODERATE RAIN ACTUALLY SEEM
TO BE HELPING THINGS AS WELL...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE IN CASE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AND A HEADLINE BECOMES
NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEN EARLIER TODAY AROUND QUINCY HAS NOW
MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS ANTICIPATED...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX DEPICTED IN THE RAP MODEL EAST OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AM NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
AS FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL...HAVE BEEN CONSIDERING A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR URBAN AREAS WHERE RAIN MAY BE PONDING DUE TO DRAINS CLOGGED WITH
ICE AND SNOW. AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY AREAL FLOOD WARNING HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME GIVEN SO MANY VARIABLES...INCLUDING LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS...DEGREE TO WHICH THE SNOWPACK WOULD SPONGE UP THE
RAIN...EVOLUTION OF DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THE BEHAVIOR OF ICE
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINSTEM FLOODING
STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE KANKAKEE WHERE A FLOOD WARNING
WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR ANTICIPATED MINOR FLOODING. THE OTHER RIVERS
HAVE A LITTLE MORE ROOM TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAY TWEAK THE TIMING A BIT BUT
AM NOT PLANNING ANY BIG CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS. STILL
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN OVERNIGHT...EVOLVING TO DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLD AIR MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK BRINGS A
RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
CORRESPONDING TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE
TRACK APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS POISED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS NEXT FRIDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* VARIABLE VSBY BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 5SM IN RAIN THROUGH EARLY/MID
EVENING. VSBY REDUCTION DOWN TO AROUND 1SM POSSIBLE MID/LATE
EVENING AS RAIN DIMINISHES...LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE.
* IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER SUNRISE.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID EVENING...THEN
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINALS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VARIATIONS IN VSBY WITH OBS SHOWING VALUES IN THE 2-4SM RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY 1SM VSBY POSSIBLE AS WELL. IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH
OCCASIONAL VARIABILITY BUT EXPECT THAT STEADY IFR/LIFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID EVENING AS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VSBY TRENDS BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VSBY OF 3/4SM OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS LOWEST VSBY MAY BE DRAGGED NORTHEAST TO THE
POINT WHERE THE WORST OF IT REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WITH
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR APPROACHING DO EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL
FALL THIS EVENING BUT AM NOT SURE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN DENSE
FOG. WILL CONTINUE WITH 1SM FOR NOW AND MONITOR OBS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE OF ANY LOWERING IS NEEDED. OTHERWISE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS WESTERLY AND
ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VSBY TO
MARKEDLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IFR THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE MORNING HOURS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERING POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT THIS LOOK TO OCCUR
OVER A SHORT PERIOD.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS WITH RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTION MID/LATE EVENING...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW VSBY MAY FALL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...LLWS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR PROBABLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/IFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
209 PM CST
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS DRIFTED
EAST...AND STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINA
COAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
EXISTED...WITH ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL CONVERGE
UPON LAKE MICHIGAN...CONSOLIDATING INTO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...WITH THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST/EAST. THEN WITH THE LOW PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN SAT.
THEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE WEST. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD WILL BECOME NORTHWEST...BEFORE RELAXING TO THE WEST SAT LATE
AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST...STRETCHING AN INFLUENCE NORTH TO LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUN. THIS COUPLED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY SUN AFTN/EVE. THE GRADIENT HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY TIGHTER...ALONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE BECOME DEEPER
TO 28.9 INCHES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVE. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE A PERIOD OF GALES FOR THE LAKE DURING THE SUN AFTN/EVE
TIMEFRAME. THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO SLACKEN OFF FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TUE NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FOR
LAKE MICHIGAN WED AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-
ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-
ILZ022 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
610 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
326 PM CST
THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST
CHALLENGING PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART MOVED OUT...AT LEAST
FOR THE TIME BEING. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM
INCLUDE DENSE FOG AND THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM TRENDS AND COVERAGE...AND THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AS MENTIONED IN THE MORNING AFD UPDATE...THE FIRST QUESTION WOULD BE
WHETHER DENSE FOG DEVELOPS IN THE SATURATED SURFACE LAYER MOVING IN
OVER THE SNOWPACK WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS. OBSERVATIONS JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA ARE SHOWING VSBYS AT WORST AROUND 1 MILE AND
GENERALLY QUITE A BIT HIGHER...BUT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER THEY ARE MORE COMMONLY AROUND 1/4 TO 1/2
MILE. STILL AM NOT ANTICIPATING THE NEED FOR FOG HEADLINES IN THE
IMMEDIATE TERM. WINDS IN THE TEENS AND MODERATE RAIN ACTUALLY SEEM
TO BE HELPING THINGS AS WELL...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE IN CASE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AND A HEADLINE BECOMES
NECESSARY LATE THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEN EARLIER TODAY AROUND QUINCY HAS NOW
MOVED INTO THE LOCAL AREA AS ANTICIPATED...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX DEPICTED IN THE RAP MODEL EAST OF
THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AM NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.
AS FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL...HAVE BEEN CONSIDERING A FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR URBAN AREAS WHERE RAIN MAY BE PONDING DUE TO DRAINS CLOGGED WITH
ICE AND SNOW. AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY AREAL FLOOD WARNING HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME GIVEN SO MANY VARIABLES...INCLUDING LOCATION OF HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS...DEGREE TO WHICH THE SNOWPACK WOULD SPONGE UP THE
RAIN...EVOLUTION OF DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...AND THE BEHAVIOR OF ICE
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINSTEM FLOODING
STILL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE KANKAKEE WHERE A FLOOD WARNING
WAS ISSUED EARLIER FOR ANTICIPATED MINOR FLOODING. THE OTHER RIVERS
HAVE A LITTLE MORE ROOM TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF.
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...MAY TWEAK THE TIMING A BIT BUT
AM NOT PLANNING ANY BIG CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION TRENDS. STILL
EXPECTING MAINLY RAIN OVERNIGHT...EVOLVING TO DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS COLD AIR MOVES IN TOWARD MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK BRINGS A
RETURN TO SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE...THOUGH STILL BELOW
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
CORRESPONDING TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE
TRACK APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE MOST PRONOUNCED
COLD AIR INTRUSION LOOKS POISED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK...POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS NEXT FRIDAY.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* VARIABLE VSBY BETWEEN AROUND 2 AND 5SM IN RAIN THROUGH EARLY/MID
EVENING. VSBY REDUCTION DOWN TO AROUND 1SM POSSIBLE MID/LATE
EVENING AS RAIN DIMINISHES...LOWER VSBY POSSIBLE.
* IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED TOWARD MIDDAY.
* SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER SUNRISE.
* SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID EVENING...THEN
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TERMINALS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VARIATIONS IN VSBY WITH OBS SHOWING VALUES IN THE 2-4SM RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY 1SM VSBY POSSIBLE AS WELL. IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUE WITH
OCCASIONAL VARIABILITY BUT EXPECT THAT STEADY IFR/LIFR WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL EXIT FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID EVENING AS A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VSBY TRENDS BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
MID EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR
LIFTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. CURRENT OBS SHOW VSBY OF 3/4SM OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS LOWEST VSBY MAY BE DRAGGED NORTHEAST TO THE
POINT WHERE THE WORST OF IT REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINALS. WITH
WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR APPROACHING DO EXPECT THAT VSBY WILL
FALL THIS EVENING BUT AM NOT SURE THAT IT WILL RESULT IN DENSE
FOG. WILL CONTINUE WITH 1SM FOR NOW AND MONITOR OBS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE OF ANY LOWERING IS NEEDED. OTHERWISE SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS WESTERLY AND
ALLOW SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING TO OCCUR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW VSBY TO
MARKEDLY IMPROVE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IFR THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE MORNING HOURS. AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS EXPECTED...WITH SCATTERING POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...BUT THIS LOOK TO OCCUR
OVER A SHORT PERIOD.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS WITH RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REDUCTION MID/LATE EVENING...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW VSBY MAY FALL.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN HOW QUICKLY THEY IMPROVE SATURDAY MORNING.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...LLWS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR PROBABLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/IFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
209 PM CST
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS DRIFTED
EAST...AND STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC SOUTH THROUGH THE CAROLINA
COAST. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURES
EXISTED...WITH ONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE SECOND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURES WILL CONVERGE
UPON LAKE MICHIGAN...CONSOLIDATING INTO A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...WITH THE
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS NEAR THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW BEING SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST/EAST. THEN WITH THE LOW PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE...THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN. FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PORTIONS WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN SAT.
THEN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST...WINDS WILL
TURN MORE TO THE WEST. FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD WILL BECOME NORTHWEST...BEFORE RELAXING TO THE WEST SAT LATE
AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE EAST...STRETCHING AN INFLUENCE NORTH TO LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUN. THIS COUPLED WITH YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY SUN AFTN/EVE. THE GRADIENT HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY TIGHTER...ALONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE BECOME DEEPER
TO 28.9 INCHES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN EVE. THIS WILL LIKELY
CREATE A PERIOD OF GALES FOR THE LAKE DURING THE SUN AFTN/EVE
TIMEFRAME. THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO SLACKEN OFF FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH JUST A COUPLE WEAK WAVES TRAVERSING THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE LONGER RANGE PERIODS FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TUE NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FOR
LAKE MICHIGAN WED AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS BUT DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH...WHICH
LOOKS TO SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS FGEN THAT HAD DRIVEN SOME LIGHT
SNOW EARLIER HAS FADED LEAVING ONLY CLOUD COVER BEHIND...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH ONE MORE COLD SUBZERO
NIGHT TONIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING PRECIP TYPE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS PROVIDE RAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WHICH
DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER. THIS SNOW WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN THIS LIFT. DECENT
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND WOULD SUSPECT
THAT VIS IS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...AS
SAMPLING OF THIS SNOW FROM SURFACE OBS HAS BEEN LACKING. WITH THIS
WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTING THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
ALSO EXITING...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH 1 TO 3 MILE VIS IN THIS SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...COULD EASILY SEE
VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TRENDING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS DEPARTS COULD BE IN
THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
AFTER ANY LINGER SNOW DEPARTS THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT ATTENTION
BACK TOWARDS TEMPS TONIGHT. VORT MAX TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
IMPULSE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS OCCURRING...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATION OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT...DEPARTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
IN PLACE. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT AND AM NOW EXPECTING
LOW TEMPS TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS
CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. COLDEST TEMPS OF 10 TO 12 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE IF NOT CALM TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...AND FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. ALTHOUGH...SPORADIC HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY...THE CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID
LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...ALREADY BACKED WINDS AND ONGOING WAA WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
MID DAY...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THIS WAVE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
PUSH NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO OBSERVE THIS
PRECIP...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING TO THE FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
EVALUATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AS ALTHOUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/CRYSTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIP WILL START OFF AS MIX
OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...COULD OBSERVE THIS MIX INITIALLY BUT WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. THEN
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL OBSERVE
ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS VARYING PRECIP TYPE FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-88...WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING ALSO NEEDED TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE
OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY IF THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING WAA WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER WARMING OF THIS COLUMN WILL YIELD LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BETTER PRECIP AXIS PUSHES NORTH
BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO
FALL. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REINFORCING LIFT OWING TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. ALONG
WITH THIS LIFT...THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD.
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS...WITH RISES EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS RAIN AND SLIGHT WARMING
WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TO BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ASPECT IN THE HWO...WITH AN
ESF LIKELY ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
LIGHT SNOW...THEN SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY EARLY
EVENING.
* CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CIGS LOWERING
IFR THURSDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THEN...THE HGI WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SELY-SSELY AND INCREASE...BUT REMAIN UNDER 10KT. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND SOME LIGHT PCPN. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH A SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO
EXTEND TO 15KFT...INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IF
THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT QUITE THAT DEEP...PCPN COULD START OUT AS
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE PROFILE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL LOWER WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING THE MOIST LAYER WILL
NO LONGER BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION AND ANY
LINGERING PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...VIS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN STARTING AS -SN AND THEN CHANGING OVER
TO -FZDZ BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGE OVER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CATAGORY
CHANGES.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET
TODAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO THE EAST...BUT SLOWER THAN THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
DEEPENS AS TRACKS EAST AS WELL...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE LAKE. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING...TRACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS TO
WESTERLY.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEEN IN
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS WAVES WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE
NEARSHORE FORECAST.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1152 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS BUT DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH...WHICH
LOOKS TO SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS FGEN THAT HAD DRIVEN SOME LIGHT
SNOW EARLIER HAS FADED LEAVING ONLY CLOUD COVER BEHIND...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH ONE MORE COLD SUBZERO
NIGHT TONIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING PRECIP TYPE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS PROVIDE RAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WHICH
DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER. THIS SNOW WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN THIS LIFT. DECENT
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND WOULD SUSPECT
THAT VIS IS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...AS
SAMPLING OF THIS SNOW FROM SURFACE OBS HAS BEEN LACKING. WITH THIS
WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTING THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
ALSO EXITING...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH 1 TO 3 MILE VIS IN THIS SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...COULD EASILY SEE
VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TRENDING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS DEPARTS COULD BE IN
THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
AFTER ANY LINGER SNOW DEPARTS THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT ATTENTION
BACK TOWARDS TEMPS TONIGHT. VORT MAX TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
IMPULSE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS OCCURRING...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATION OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT...DEPARTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
IN PLACE. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT AND AM NOW EXPECTING
LOW TEMPS TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS
CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. COLDEST TEMPS OF 10 TO 12 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE IF NOT CALM TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...AND FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. ALTHOUGH...SPORADIC HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY...THE CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID
LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...ALREADY BACKED WINDS AND ONGOING WAA WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
MID DAY...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THIS WAVE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
PUSH NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO OBSERVE THIS
PRECIP...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING TO THE FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
EVALUATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AS ALTHOUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/CRYSTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIP WILL START OFF AS MIX
OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...COULD OBSERVE THIS MIX INITIALLY BUT WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. THEN
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL OBSERVE
ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS VARYING PRECIP TYPE FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-88...WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING ALSO NEEDED TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE
OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY IF THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING WAA WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER WARMING OF THIS COLUMN WILL YIELD LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BETTER PRECIP AXIS PUSHES NORTH
BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO
FALL. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REINFORCING LIFT OWING TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. ALONG
WITH THIS LIFT...THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD.
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS...WITH RISES EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS RAIN AND SLIGHT WARMING
WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TO BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ASPECT IN THE HWO...WITH AN
ESF LIKELY ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW...THEN SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY EARLY EVENING.
* CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AND CIGS
LOWERING IFR THURSDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THEN...THE HGI WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SELY-SSELY AND INCREASE...BUT REMAIN UNDER 10KT. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND SOME LIGHT PCPN. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH A SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO
EXTEND TO 15KFT...INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IF
THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT QUITE THAT DEEP...PCPN COULD START OUT AS
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE PROFILE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL LOWER WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING THE MOIST LAYER WILL
NO LONGER BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION AND ANY
LINGERING PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...VIS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN STARTING AS -SN AND THEN CHANGING OVER
TO -FZDZ BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGE OVER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CATAGORY
CHANGES.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CST
A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN...AT LEAST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SCOOTS
EAST LATER THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP AN
INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT GUST
MAGNITUDE BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED A FAIRLY STOUT
SUSTAINED WIND OF AROUND 25 KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE LOW PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO TURNING
WINDS WESTERLY. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH COULD MEAN ACTIVE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS AS SEEN IN
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
755 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
QUITE A FEW SITES NOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE ON VISIBILITIES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS AHEAD OF PASSING SURFACE
LOW. AS RESULT... HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT... SAY AROUND 09Z OR SO
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON VISIBILITIES AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE POOR VISIBILITIES IN DENSE FOG COUPLED WITH ICY ROADWAYS
ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 MAKING IT ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS BEST
SUITED FOR NOT TRAVELING UNLESS NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 444 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE JACKSON COUNTY IN IOWA AND JO DAVIESS
AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. REPORTS OF
SEVERAL ROADS COMPLETELY COVERED IN JACKSON COUNTY... IA38...IA136
IA64. PAVEMENT TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
ALLOWING FOR THE ICY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER....ONCE THIS PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT AND MAY SEE MORE ICING WHETHER
THROUGH REFREEZE OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
CALLS ARE NOW COMING IN REPORTING SLICK ROADS. THUS WILL HOIST A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPORAL
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO CHANGED THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WAS IMPINGING UPON AN 850 MB WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAD A LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS WITH LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KMHK WITH A WARM FRONT EAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
BASED ON TRENDS FROM PRESSURE FALLS AND THE RAP MODEL...THE LOW
SHOULD PASS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA BETWEEN KALO AND KCID THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. RIGHT NOW NO ADVISORY FOR DENSE
FOG IS PLANNED. HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE IS NEEDED
AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BUDGED MUCH IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR FROM
KDBQ ON WEST. THUS THIS AREA IS RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SEEING FREEZING
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOUT ANOTHER DEGREE. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY SPOTTY
OVER THE FOUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY WESTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY
THROUGH MID EVENING.
ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALLOWING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. DURING THE CHANGE OVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO UNDER
AN INCH.
ON SATURDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST/EAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE A DUSTING AT BEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES TO A RIDGE DOMINATED WESTERN U.S.
AND A MEAN TROF SETTING UP OVER THE EAST.
MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF A TROF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
MIXING IS ALSO SUGGESTED WITH A TIGHT SLP GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. MODELS MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WITH OUT ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE BETTER MOISTURE GETTING PUSHED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN MONDAY WITH THE LESS PHASED ECM SOLUTION
LIFTING A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROF OUT OF TEXAS...SENDING A SURFACE
LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMS PRECIP SHIELD WITH
THIS FEATURE JUST MISSES THE SOUTHEAST CWFA MONDAY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON A WEAK S/W RACING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND MN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LATEST RUNS MOVING IT/S WEAK
SURFACE LOW THROUGH IA AND FAVOR THE NORTHEAST CWFA FOR SOME LOW
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. JUST A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER S/W MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW EAST ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN
BORDER...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BLOCKING ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. BUT THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN ANOTHER CHUNK
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH BOTH THE ECM AND GFS BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS
-22C OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
GENERALLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIKELY AREAS
OF BELOW MINIMUMS DEVELOPING IN DENSE FOG. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN. THIS WILL SEND A FRONT
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-JO
DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 444 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE JACKSON COUNTY IN IOWA AND JO DAVIESS
AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. REPORTS OF
SEVERAL ROADS COMPLETELY COVERED IN JACKSON COUNTY... IA38...IA136
IA64. PAVEMENT TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
ALLOWING FOR THE ICY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER....ONCE THIS PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT AND MAY SEE MORE ICING WHETHER
THROUGH REFREEZE OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
CALLS ARE NOW COMING IN REPORTING SLICK ROADS. THUS WILL HOIST A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPORAL
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO CHANGED THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WAS IMPINGING UPON AN 850 MB WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAD A LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS WITH LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KMHK WITH A WARM FRONT EAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
BASED ON TRENDS FROM PRESSURE FALLS AND THE RAP MODEL...THE LOW
SHOULD PASS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA BETWEEN KALO AND KCID THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. RIGHT NOW NO ADVISORY FOR DENSE
FOG IS PLANNED. HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE IS NEEDED
AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BUDGED MUCH IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR FROM
KDBQ ON WEST. THUS THIS AREA IS RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SEEING FREEZING
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOUT ANOTHER DEGREE. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY SPOTTY
OVER THE FOUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY WESTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY
THROUGH MID EVENING.
ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALLOWING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. DURING THE CHANGE OVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO UNDER
AN INCH.
ON SATURDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST/EAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE A DUSTING AT BEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES TO A RIDGE DOMINATED WESTERN U.S.
AND A MEAN TROF SETTING UP OVER THE EAST.
MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF A TROF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
MIXING IS ALSO SUGGESTED WITH A TIGHT SLP GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. MODELS MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WITH OUT ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE BETTER MOISTURE GETTING PUSHED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN MONDAY WITH THE LESS PHASED ECM SOLUTION
LIFTING A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROF OUT OF TEXAS...SENDING A SURFACE
LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMS PRECIP SHIELD WITH
THIS FEATURE JUST MISSES THE SOUTHEAST CWFA MONDAY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON A WEAK S/W RACING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND MN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LATEST RUNS MOVING IT/S WEAK
SURFACE LOW THROUGH IA AND FAVOR THE NORTHEAST CWFA FOR SOME LOW
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. JUST A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER S/W MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW EAST ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN
BORDER...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BLOCKING ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. BUT THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN ANOTHER CHUNK
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH BOTH THE ECM AND GFS BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS
-22C OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
GENERALLY LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIKELY AREAS
OF BELOW MINIMUMS DEVELOPING IN DENSE FOG. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN. THIS WILL SEND A FRONT
THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.
IL...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR JO DAVIESS-
STEPHENSON.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. PV HEIGHT MINIMUM IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND ALL INDICATIONS BY SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED ALOFT...WITH COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LESS OF A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH
TEMPS SLOW TO RECOVER SO FAR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT I BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE TO MATCH THE
SLOWER RATE OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. BL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE AND FURTHER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS DRY OUT THE BL. WHILE
FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AS NOSE OF H3 JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST
OF THESE PERIODS. 15-18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. I KEPT POP MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE
STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE NW AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 300MB JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH AXIS. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES IN THE LEFT EXIT OF
THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH SATURATED MID LEVELS
REMAINING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVING OVER THE AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DRY OUT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN.
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
HIGH CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARMER AND WINDY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER THEME. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH USUALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING PRECIP. OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH BELIEVE THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-10Z TIMEFRAME SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z FRIDAY
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10KTS OR SO FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS IN
THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
BR/FG AND MVFR CIGS AT KMCK AS STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF THE TERMINAL COULD SPREAD WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT IN
THE 06Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
DOWN IN THE 16Z-19Z TIMEFRAME AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
CIGS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. PV HEIGHT MINIMUM IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND ALL INDICATIONS BY SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED ALOFT...WITH COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LESS OF A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH
TEMPS SLOW TO RECOVER SO FAR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT I BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE TO MATCH THE
SLOWER RATE OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. BL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE AND FURTHER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS DRY OUT THE BL. WHILE
FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AS NOSE OF H3 JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST
OF THESE PERIODS. 15-18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. I KEPT POP MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE
STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE NW AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 300MB JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH AXIS. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES IN THE LEFT EXIT OF
THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH SATURATED MID LEVELS
REMAINING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVING OVER THE AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DRY OUT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN.
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
HIGH CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARMER AND WINDY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER THEME. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH USUALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING PRECIP. OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH BELIEVE THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LIGHT FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MVFR VIS. AT THIS POINT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO NEAR 5-6SM AT KMCK COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE VALID TAF TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHER...AND THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF. FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND ADVECT NORTH TO BE NEAR KMCK. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS AT
KMCK AFTER 06Z. JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 12KT AT KMCK UNTIL CLOSER TO 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
107 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. PV HEIGHT MINIMUM IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND ALL INDICATIONS BY SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED ALOFT...WITH COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LESS OF A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH
TEMPS SLOW TO RECOVER SO FAR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT I BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE TO MATCH THE
SLOWER RATE OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. BL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE AND FURTHER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS DRY OUT THE BL. WHILE
FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AS NOSE OF H3 JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST
OF THESE PERIODS. 15-18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. I KEPT POP MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE
STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE NW AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LIGHT FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MVFR VIS. AT THIS POINT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO NEAR 5-6SM AT KMCK COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE VALID TAF TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHER...AND THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF. FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND ADVECT NORTH TO BE NEAR KMCK. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS AT
KMCK AFTER 06Z. JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 12KT AT KMCK UNTIL CLOSER TO 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
UPDATED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT EARLIER AND ISSUED NOWCAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR COVERAGE OF FOG AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE/FREEZING
FOG. WHILE THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
LOCATION OF DENSE FOG...I AN SCEPTICALLY OF ITS TREND TO OVERSPREAD
THE CWA WITH DENSE FOG BY 18Z AND LINGER THESE CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAP SHOW CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD MATCH THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTER AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST AND BL CONDITIONS
MODIFY. COULD STILL SEE LINGERING FOG FURTHER EAST WHERE BL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLOWER TO RECOVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND THEN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...GOOD HEATING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LIGHT FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MVFR VIS. AT THIS POINT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO NEAR 5-6SM AT KMCK COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE VALID TAF TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHER...AND THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF. FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND ADVECT NORTH TO BE NEAR KMCK. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS AT
KMCK AFTER 06Z. JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 12KT AT KMCK UNTIL CLOSER TO 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
835 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
UPDATED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT EARLIER AND ISSUED NOWCAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR COVERAGE OF FOG AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE/FREEZING
FOG. WHILE THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
LOCATION OF DENSE FOG...I AN SCEPTICALLY OF ITS TREND TO OVERSPREAD
THE CWA WITH DENSE FOG BY 18Z AND LINGER THESE CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAP SHOW CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD MATCH THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTER AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST AND BL CONDITIONS
MODIFY. COULD STILL SEE LINGERING FOG FURTHER EAST WHERE BL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLOWER TO RECOVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND THEN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...GOOD HEATING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 09Z. AFTER 09Z...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
AT MCK...PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AFTER 14Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
331 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS INCREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...HAS ACTUALLY LED TO A
LITTLE SEEDER FEEDER LIGHT SNOW TO MIX WITH THE DRIZZLE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE/WEAK LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WILL
BASICALLY END THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. SO HAVE DECIDED TO END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...AS THIS AREA WILL
HAVE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR
WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AS
RETURN SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL.
FRIDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY. A LOT BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS ALSO LED TO MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT GETTING SHUNTED FURTHER EAST WITH
EACH RUN. SO HAVE DIMINISHED POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
SOME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
BUT MORNING SURFACE TEMPS ON FRIDAY...MAY MAKE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...WHEN PRECIPITATION
BEGINS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO CHANGE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO RAIN...AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR UNTIL AROUND
NOON TIME FRIDAY...WITH ANY GLAZING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH
EASTWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN RAIN SWATH...THINK HEAVIEST QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SO SOAKING RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING
AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CENTRAL KANSAS...AS THIS AREA MAY NEED
A WINTER ADVISORY WITH LATER FORECASTS...BECAUSE SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF GLAZING.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: NOT ALOT OF COLD AIR AFTER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO A
NICE WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE TEMPS ACTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
NEXT QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...WITH POSSIBLY
JUST A SPRINKLE CHANCE AT BEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY
EVENING.
GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SOME FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE
50S. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
60 FOR HIGHS. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS/FORECASTS GO EVEN WARMER WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES.
REST OF THE EXTENDED: THE GENERAL THEME FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A
GLANCING BLOW FOR MOST OF KANSAS FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW STRONG THIS COLDER AIR WILL BE...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY
EAST OF THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MAINLY IFR AVIATION FORECAST. 0000 UTC RUNS OF NAM/GFS STILL APPEAR
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING CONFIDENCE OF LATTER TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST. RUC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR...STILL HAVE THE BEST CORRELATION WITH
ONGOING WEATHER/TRENDS. CHANGES FROM 0000 UTC TAFS ARE FOR A BIT
SLOWER ONSET...AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE NORTH COMPONENT
AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR. AGAIN THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. OPTED AGAIN TO BE QUITE STINGY WITH FZDZ FORECAST. WITH
INFLUX OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU...NOT
EXPECTING A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AND RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 35 33 43 28 / 10 30 50 10
HUTCHINSON 34 30 42 27 / 10 20 50 10
NEWTON 34 32 42 28 / 10 30 50 10
ELDORADO 35 34 44 28 / 10 30 60 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 36 34 47 30 / 10 30 60 10
RUSSELL 34 27 41 25 / 10 10 30 0
GREAT BEND 34 28 41 26 / 10 10 30 0
SALINA 33 28 40 27 / 10 20 50 10
MCPHERSON 33 30 41 27 / 10 20 50 10
COFFEYVILLE 37 35 49 31 / 20 50 80 30
CHANUTE 36 34 46 30 / 20 40 80 20
IOLA 35 34 46 30 / 20 40 80 20
PARSONS-KPPF 36 35 48 30 / 20 40 80 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ071-
072-095-096-099-100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1155 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS
IS UNDERWAY INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF. DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A SIMILAR OUTCOME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
THIS WILL RESULT IN DEPOSITION OF A LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER A
FURTHER EXPANSION TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. SOME FREEZING FOG WITH LOCALLY LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE COMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
STRONGER PACIFIC UPPER TROF DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BETTER FETCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN. THE
LATEST GFS SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIKEWISE QPF EAST
QUICKER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
THE NAM REMAINS MORE BULLISH AND THE ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE.
FOR NOW HAVE MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN SOME ICING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE FUTURE WINTER HEADLINE.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO FOR A CHANGE.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY AND MILDER
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS WHICH WILL AFFECT
DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
A TROF ON SUNDAY WHICH SUGGESTS A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
CHALLENGE BY MID-WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM TROF WITHIN THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW A BIT COLDER
AIR THAN ADVERTISED TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MAINLY IFR AVIATION FORECAST. 0000 UTC RUNS OF NAM/GFS STILL APPEAR
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING CONFIDENCE OF LATTER TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST. RUC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR...STILL HAVE THE BEST CORRELATION WITH
ONGOING WEATHER/TRENDS. CHANGES FROM 0000 UTC TAFS ARE FOR A BIT
SLOWER ONSET...AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE NORTH COMPONENT
AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR. AGAIN THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. OPTED AGAIN TO BE QUITE STINGY WITH FZDZ FORECAST. WITH
INFLUX OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU...NOT
EXPECTING A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AND RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 25 35 31 43 / 20 10 50 70
HUTCHINSON 21 34 29 42 / 20 10 50 60
NEWTON 22 34 30 42 / 20 10 50 70
ELDORADO 23 35 30 44 / 30 10 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 26 36 32 47 / 30 10 60 80
RUSSELL 16 34 26 41 / 10 10 20 40
GREAT BEND 17 34 27 41 / 10 10 30 40
SALINA 14 33 27 40 / 20 10 30 60
MCPHERSON 20 33 29 41 / 20 10 40 60
COFFEYVILLE 28 37 32 49 / 40 20 60 90
CHANUTE 26 36 31 46 / 40 20 50 90
IOLA 25 35 31 46 / 40 20 40 90
PARSONS-KPPF 28 36 32 48 / 40 20 50 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ069>072-
083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
913 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A ~1034MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PIEDMONT INTO NE GA. TO THE SOUTHEAST, A
COASTAL TROUGH HAS NOW LIFTED INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AND BRIEFLY LIFTED ACROSS FAR SE TIP OF THE
COMMONWEALTH EARLY THIS AFTN (TEMPS JUMPED INTO THE LOW 60S EARLY
THIS AFTN BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE U40S OVER THE PAST FEW
HRS).
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS AFTN...WITH SHRAS IN ASSN
WITH THE LATEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWING DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THIS LATEST ROUND OF SHRAS LIFTING E-NE ACROSS THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC IN SSW FLOW ALOFT. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...WITH
SHRAS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. FOR TEMPS, WE`VE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF THE HRRR AND HIGH RES NAM W/TEMP TRENDS THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS WILL FALL VERY LITTLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...LIKELY RISING GRADUALLY TOWARD
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS AREA. CONSIDERING THE
LIGHT WINDS, THIS WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG
INLAND EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEEKEND GETS OFF TO A VERY WET START, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A
STEADY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH 300MB COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN BY AFTN. HOWEVER...QPF SHOULD LARGELY AVG
0.75-1.25" DUE TO THE QUICK MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE VERY MILD, AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SURGES N OF THE
LOCAL AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA...WITH A S WIND OF 15-20MPH IN THE WARM
SECTOR, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30MPH EXPECTED. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE U50S/L60S IN THE MODIFIED WEDGE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
FAR NW TIER...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE...AND LOW 70S ACROSS FAR EASTERN VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW...AS A FEW RECORD HIGHS
FOR THE DATE APPEAR ATTAINABLE. SREF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE 90+%
CONFIDENCE IN 2M DEWPOINT VALUES AOA 60F ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
SECTIONS. THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SAT AFTN,
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF RIC /TRI- CITIES AREA TOWARDS HAMPTON
ROADS/TIDEWATER AREAS.
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN DEPICTION OF STRONG LIFT (UPRIGHT
FRONTOGENESIS) FROM THE SURFACE TO ~850MB ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
PER THE GFS/NAM SAT AFTN. THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR IN A SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING A 65-70KT LLJ...50-60KT OF SW 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR...AND 500-700 J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FACTORS...THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MOD RAINFALL (FALLING HEAVILY AT TIMES). HOWEVER,
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FORCED LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
(RARE BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR JANUARY) CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN
SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA OF CONCERN
REMAINS MAINLY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF S-CENTRAL/SE VA
AND NE NC. BASED ON THE LATEST 12Z/10 DATA...THE TIMING OF THE
GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE AFTER 18Z/1P SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK BY THE SPC...AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA
IN THE HWO.
A TRANSITION DAY SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
OFFSHORE AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A CLEARING SKY. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS MILD AS SATURDAY, MAXIMA REMAIN ~1 S.D. ABOVE
NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MOST. EARLY
MORNING LOWS MONDAY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SW ON MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARRELS EASTWARD FROM THE
PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS. FOR NOW, HAVE PLAYED TOWARDS THE
DRIER/WEAKER GFS SOLUTION...WITH WARM SW FLOW ALLOWING MAXIMA TO
WARM BACK INTO THE U50S TO L60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFIED...BUT
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH MID-LEVEL FEATURES
DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MON NIGHT-TUES AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTS NEWD
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH TUES MORNING OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC TUES AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS
MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SWLY FLOW WHICH WOULD
ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT.
MEANWHILE...GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE ENERGY AND HAS LIMITED
MOISTURE. SFC PATTERNS ALSO QUITE DIFFERENT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE OH VALLEY. HAVE TRENDED CURRENT FORECAST TOWARD THE
ECMWF...BUT MAINTAINED SOME GFS GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTIES. THE RESULT IS CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING TUES MORNING INTO TUES AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT/MOISTURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TUES
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP. BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH TUES NIGHT-WEDS MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. UPPER DYNAMICS WILL DEVELOP A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
TO JUST OFFSHORE EARLY WEDS. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED/SHALLOW...BUT BASED ON DYNAMICS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ATTM.
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RIDGING NWD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURS-FRI...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE LEFT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK DRY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUES (UPPER 50S-LOW 60S) BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS THRU THE EXTENDED. MILD MON NIGHT
(LOW-MID 40S) BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
LOWS (LOW-MID 30S) THRU THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT RAIN DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FRONT AT 02Z JUST WEST OF ORF AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
W-NW THRU THE NIGHT. SITES NORTH AND WEST OF A WARM FRONT (KRIC) ARE
EXPERIENCING IFR CONDITIONS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THOSE AREAS. ECG/ORF/PHF/SBY NOW
REPORTING MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THRU THE NIGHT AND
BE GUSTY 20-25KT ON SAT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
SHOWERS AND CHC OF TSTMS PSBL SAT AFTN AS TEMP RISE WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.
OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS SAT AFTN AS FRONT APPROACHES. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN DETERIORATING CONDS ONCE AGAIN
AROUND TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS LOCATED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE BEHIND A LIFTING WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHENS AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
(925MB) WILL INCREASE TO ~50 KT TONIGHT-SAT MORNING...BUT WAA/WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND COLD WATERS WILL LIMIT THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS
FROM REACHING THE WATER. HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT-SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FT (UP
TO 10+ FT 20 NM OUT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS). COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS LATE SAT-EARLY SAT NIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST AND REMAIN 15-20 KT OVER THE BAY/RIVERS AND 20-25 KT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. A LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATE SAT...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY HANDLE THESE BRIEF/STRONG WINDS WITH SPECIAL
MARINE WARNINGS INSTEAD OF GALE WORDING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EWD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SAT NIGHT-SUN...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA LATE SUN MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADIENT TO RELAX
AND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST
SUN NIGHT...FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS TUES-WEDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY JANUARY 11
RIC 72/1975
ORF 75/1974
SBY 68/1975
ECG 75/1974
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...DAP/JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SNOW
SHOWER PATTERN COMING TOGETHER WITH SOME GUSTO OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND WESTERN OHIO. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC AND IS HELPING SHAPE UP THE WARM FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE INDUCED DCVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING IN
A LOW STABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RESULTING IN THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE. THE TEXTURE OF THE
RADAR COMPOSITE EVEN SUGGESTS WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
FRONTAL SURFACE, ROUGHLY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER JUDGING FROM MODEL
THETA-E PROFILES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS THE WAVE SLIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. THEY SHOW THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL
MOTION OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOWELL TO
PORT HURON WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND MID EVENING. THIS
WILL CONSIST OF A GOOD COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MID LEVEL SHEARING DEFORMATION FUELED BY SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR 3
G/KG. EXPECT THE RESULT TO BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH IMBEDDED
HEAVIER BURSTS ADDING UP TO ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS FAR
NORTH AS INTERSTATE 69. BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LESS
TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB AND THEN WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TRAILING THE WAVE WILL THEN SET THE
STAGE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TOWARD SUNRISE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE INDUCED MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING
PLACE TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL ELIMINATE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION. THAT
WILL LEAVE A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FORCED BY WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER/FRONTAL
SLOPE. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE AND GROUND
SURFACES ARE VERY COLD, UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE, DURATION, AND
INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE, THE STRONG NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
HAVE MINS OCCURRING DURING EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD IS THE START TIME AND TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE
WARMER AIR WORKS UP INTO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WORKS IN WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. 120+ KNOT JET GETS GOING WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS JET THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE
LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...THIS
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO SE MI. AS WITH THE CASE OF
TRANSITIONING PRECIP TYPE THE BIGGEST CAVEAT WILL BE HOW LONG
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN LINGERS BEFORE THE WARMER AIR WORKS IN
CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. THIS TRANSITION DOES APPEAR TO BE OF
SHORTER DURATION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND PUSHES IN THE
WARMER AIR. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF DRIZZLE WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIP BEFORE MID LEVELS SATURATE. BETTER FORCING AND PRECIP
CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. POPS INCREASE FROM 00Z TO 12Z ON SATURDAY WHICH
COINCIDES WITH FAVORED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PWAT VALUES REMAINED NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH...WHICH IS GOOD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER...PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED A TINY BIT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RIDGING MOVES BACK IN AND
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW COVER AND THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. WAA
WORKS IN AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY BEFORE CAA TAKES OVER WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND STEADY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP SUNDAY MOSTLY
DRY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST MODELS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT TUESDAY COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS
LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL /FORECASTED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S/ ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
ALSO START OFF ABOVE NORMAL /LOW 30S/ FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND STEADILY
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS /BELOW NORMAL/ BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS WILL THEN MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN. SUSTAINED SPEEDS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 28 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE...HOWEVER WARMER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE
SURFACE WILL KEEP STABILITY HIGH AND LIMIT WIND GUSTS TO BELOW GALE
FORCE. COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1258 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
//DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN OF SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
ORGANIZING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICK IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION BEFORE CEILING LOWERS TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE AS WELL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE SOLID FROM PTK SOUTHWARD DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT CATCHES UP TO
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
HIGHER TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE DTW TO PTK CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS MBS JUST WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE.
FOR DTW... SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM OHIO AND INDIANA WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL NEAR 22Z AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BURST OF LARGE BUT DRY FLAKES CAPABLE
OF IFR RESTRICTION AND A QUICK HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR ANY GREATER
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOWARD SUNRISE AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURE IS ON SCHEDULE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ462...FROM 7 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SS/RK/HLO
MARINE.......SS/HLO
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
640 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE FZDZ MIGHT BE ABOUT ALL THE MPX AREA SEES
FROM THE UPPER WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS NOW. THE
PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A DELAYED PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE CURRENTLY HEADING FOR NW MN AND A SRN STREAM WAVE THAT IS
MOVING UP OUT OF IA TOWARD WI. THESE TWO SYSTEMS DO NOT REALLY
LOOK TO BECOME ONE UNTIL SAT MORNING OVER MICH. THE RUB THERE IS
THAT THE SRN STREAM WAVE IS THE ONE WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AND WITH THESE SYSTEMS NOT PHASING UNTIL
SATURDAY...WE ARE SEEING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST TODAY/TONIGHT. RUNS OF THE HOPWRF TODAY HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY INCHING A DEFORMATION BAND EAST WITH TIME AND WITH
THE 15Z RUN ALL 4 MEMBERS ARE NOW SHOWING A BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOUT DECORAH...IA UP TOWARD WAUSAU...EAST OF
THE MPX CWA. ON RADAR...THERE IS A CLUSTER OF HIGHER RETURNS THAT
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THESE PRECIPITATION SWATHS AND WITH THE HRRR
PICKING UP ON THIS SCENARIO NOW AS WELL...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DUD IN THE SNOWFALL
DEPARTMENT FOR THE MPX AREA.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...STILL ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SFC TROUGH THAT
IS STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER SLIDES EAST THIS
EVENING...MEETING UP WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO
WI. HAVE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS
WHICH SHOW JUST LIGHT QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
ERN MN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST.
SAID SFC TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE MPX AREA AROUND 9Z...WITH ANY SNOW
LIKELY CUTTING OFF AFTER THAT. BASICALLY...THERE MIGHT BE ONE OR
TWO LUCKY FOLKS OUT THERE THAT PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SNOW OUT OF
THIS...OTHERWISE IT IS JUST A SEA OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE UNTIL THE
SFC TROUGH CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME WNW.
AS FOR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE RAP AND NAM OF SKIES
SCATTERING OUT AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BECOME MORE WRLY...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THINKING WE WOULD SEE SOME CLEARING...DID FOLLOW THE IDEA
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS OF KNOCKING LOWS BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF TWIN CITIES.
NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SATURDAY...OTHER CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO NRN NODAK SWEEP THROUGH HERE DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STILL LOOKING TO NESTLE UP INTO THE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EXISTING
FORECAST...MAINLY JUST BLENDING IN LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL
DATA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. COOLING TREND
APPEARS TO TAKE HOLD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER AREA OF COLD
AIR DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE AMPLIFYING HUDSON BAY VORTEX.
A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY STILL OCCUR UNDER STRONG WAA
PATTERN UNDER STRONG 130KT H25 JET SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARMING ALOFT INDICATES FAVORABLE THICKNESS FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT
ZR-/ZL- INTO THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
LOWER 30S DURING TH DAY. WHATEVER IS LEFT INTO THE
EVENING/SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BUT ONLY LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED.
DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...
AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. TIMING IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE 12Z GFS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE 12Z EC. WONT GET TOO CUTE ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
NOW...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF PACIFIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THE NEXT MAIN SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...IT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AS COLD AS THE
LAST WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST AND THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
VERY TRICKY FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
CEILINGS FOR ALL SITES AND P-TYPES FOR THE WI SITES. SFC TROUGH
SWINGING THRU WRN MN AT INITIALIZATION TIME IS ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING SKIES IN WRN MN...WHILE IFR-AND-LOWER CONDS WITH
BR/FG/FZFG AND EVEN SOME PATCHY -FZDZ LIES AHEAD OF SAID TROUGH
AND IS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. IN THE CLEARING...WINDS HAVE SWUNG
TO WLY...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO GO WITH LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS
IN THE IFR CONDS DESPITE THE WIND SHIFT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE MAINTAINED
SIMILAR THINKING TO THE 18Z TAFS BY TIMING IN THE WLY WIND SHIFT
ALONG WITH CONDS GOING TO VFR GRADUALLY FROM W TO E THIS EVE THRU
THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LOWER CLOUDS FILL BACK IN DURG THE DAY TMRW AS
MOISTURE/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF SWING THRU THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS SECOND BATCH...AM NOT THINKING CIGS WILL DROP
INTO MVFR SO HAVE HELD CLOUDS IN LOWER-RANGE VFR ATTM. AS FOR
PRECIP...ONLY KEAU IS LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP THRU THIS EVENING /AND
POSSIBLY KRNH/ AND WILL LIKELY BE -FZDZ RATHER THAN -SN SINCE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CRYSTAL GROWTH AREAS WILL BE WELL S AND
E OF KEAU. PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS.
KMSP...IFR CONDS TO PERSIST THRU THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY MRNG
HRS...POSSIBLY EVEN WITH CEILINGS DROPPING INTO LIFR LEVELS FOR
SOME HOURS...BUT AM ANTICIPATING A BINOVC AND WILL LOOK FOR VFR
CONDS TO PREVAIL SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH THE SWITCH TO W
WINDS...MODELS ARE HIGHLY OVERDOING THE COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS SO
TIMING THE LARGE BREAK OVER WRN MN AND ERN ND WILL PUT VFR CONDS
IN THE MSP AREA BY 10Z. VFR CONDS THEN LOOK TO HOLD ON THRU MIDDAY
BEFORE LOWER-END VFR CIGS RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
UPR LVL TROF. AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP INTO MSP OTHER THAN BR AND
POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT -FZDZ FOR THIS EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN OVERNIGHT. WINDS W-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1106 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER THE NWRN AREAS
FROM LIFT FROM APPROACHING WEAK S/WV IN THE NW DELTA. ALSO IN THIS
REGION A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING JUST ALONG/SLIGHTLY IN
THE FAR NW DELTA IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDED CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IN FAR NRN ASHLEY/CHICOT/BOLIVAR COUNTIES UNTIL 20Z. THIS
REGION SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BE JUST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS AIDING IN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA REGION. GLOBAL/HI-RES
MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND HWRF...KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
THE DELTA TODAY. OVERALL...CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY. HAD TO
INCREASE QPF IN THE NW SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WERE CLEARING SOMEWHAT ALONG/SE OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO
COLUMBUS. AREAS IN THE E SHOULD BE MODERATING SLIGHTLY WHILE WARMER
TEMPS IN THE W/SW ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS FOR TODAY...SLIGHTLY LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
NW DUE TO RAIN/CLOUDS AND INCREASING HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW DUE TO
SOME DECREASING CLOUDS. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING DESPITE A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE DELTA WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
AFFECTING MOSTLY KGLH. -RA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THIS REGION TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL
BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE DELTA FOR
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND POPS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WESTWARD. THIS WAS
SEPARATING THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION AND THE MORE MODERATE AIR WITH SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION HAVE IMPEDED THE COOLING ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THIS
MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY FROM 35 TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THE LOCAL WRF...HRR AND NATIONAL WRF MODELS KEEP
THE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. WENT CLOSE TO
GMOS GUIDANCE. ON POPS ADJUSTED THE BETTER NAM POPS. THE GMOS AND MAV
POPS WERE TOO FAR SOUTHEAST IN COMPARISON TO LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF
RUNS. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST HALF TO THE
MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST. WENT CLOSER TO THE MILDER NAM GUIDANCE WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. FOR POPS LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF KEEPS THE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE DELTA REGION...BUT MODEL POPS LOOK TO HAVE TOO MUCH POP COVERAGE.
SO OPTED TO KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR MAINLY THE DELTA
REGION.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS START TO PICK UP SOME FROM THE
WEST. A SHARP SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST WITH THE TRACK. OPTED TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE OTHER MODELS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MODERATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR WEST DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SPC
HAS A 5 PERCENT RISK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SOME SHEAR. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WARRANTS ANY MENTIONING IN THE
HWO. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAINS WILL START TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ENDING THE EMBEDDED
THUNDER FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
MAV GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING SOME ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. /17/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ARE
SLOWER WITH THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55 DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.. EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
PRETTY CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND ALSO
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS
DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER SO FAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS IT AND BUMP POPS UP ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
REMAIN ALL RAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...USHERING
IN COLDER AIR.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
THIS WOULD INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...SO WILL BUMP TEMPS
DOWN A BIT BELOW MEX GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS LOOK
MAINLY DRY/COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 54 39 61 55 / 12 11 24 100
MERIDIAN 56 39 60 57 / 6 10 19 100
VICKSBURG 55 41 64 56 / 33 19 28 100
HATTIESBURG 60 38 62 57 / 6 10 18 100
NATCHEZ 56 47 64 56 / 13 12 28 100
GREENVILLE 42 40 60 50 / 82 26 30 100
GREENWOOD 46 41 62 55 / 49 23 28 100
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/28/17/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
949 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 945 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
The new swath of rain with the warm conveyor was centered from
just west of Litchfield through the St. Louis metro into southeast
MO. It is moving rather quickly to the northeast and should exit
much if not all of MO before midnight as the progressive upstream
trof continues to advance east and dry air moves in aloft.
Adjustments this evening were just temporal trends with the rain
and temperatures. During the overnight period and more
specifically after 09z I increased the pops through central and
northeast MO. There is a growing area of rain and snow across
eastern KS due to what appears to be a mid-upper level deformation
zone. The RAP and HRRR rotate this precipitation into the
aforementioned area after 09z and weaken it by 12z. My pops while
higher than the previous forecast may not be high enough if it
maintains more identity.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 1217 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Focus will be precip tonight, but in two areas. First, the ongoing
RA that will be moving out of the region late tonight. The second,
is precip associated with the upper trof currently over the
Plains.
Believe ongoing precip will be confined to the ern half of the CWA
at the beginning of the period. Precip shud continue pushing
quickly ewd and only be in the far ern counties by Midnight. Not
much change in the way of QPF thru tonight.
The other area of precip may be across nrn portions of the CWA
late tonight as the upper trof moves thru. Mdls are in fairly good
agreement with timing/placement of this feature. However, mdls
suggest a lack of available moisture will prevent any precip by
the time the trof reaches the CWA. POPs or mention of flurries may
need to be added to these areas late tonight.
As for temps, expect temps to remain steady or even rise ahead of
the cdfnt as it moves thru the area. Resultant temps are around
the warmer guidance as airmass behind the fnt is not that cold
based on upstream obs.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
(Saturday through Monday)
After further critique of the latest guidance for Sat, have
decided to add slight chance for SN continuing into the early
morning hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty if enuf
moisture will remain to produce SN, but believe it is worthy of
slight chances. If the SN does occur, with the relatively warm
bndy temps, do not anticipate much in the way of accumulations.
Next system reaches the region on Sun night into Mon as another
deep trof approaches the region. For now, have kept POPs in the
low chance range due to a fair amount of uncertainty among
guidance regarding strength and placement of the trof and sfc
reflection.
Continued trend twd warm temps with upper ridging moving into the
region.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Period begins with a focus on precip chances on Tues as a clipper
approaches the area. Each mdl has a different soln with vast
differences between them. Given the system is a clipper, will
likely have low confidence in any given soln until much closer to
Tues. For now, will just add slight chances for SN and refine the
fcst as time approaches.
As for temps, have tried to trend twd a compromise of guidance.
Have low confidence in any single soln as area remains under
meridional flow, producing warming and cooling periods.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Rain has ended at KCOU/KUIN, but a stray shower or thunderstorm is
still possible at KCOU until 05-07z depending on the evolution of
SHRA/TSRA occurring over southwestern MO. This potential will be
closely monitored over the next few hours. Although a few sites
were reporting VFR conditions at TAF issuance time, this is likely
to be short lived based on surrounding IFR obs and prevailing
flow. Winds will become westerly with the passage of a cold front
later tonight, and the arrival of drier air on Saturday combined
with mixing will cause IFR/MVFR cigs to dissipate. Beyond the end
of the valid TAF period, fog and/or stratus is expected to
redevelop on Saturday night due to the moist ground.
For KSUS/KCPS, please see the section for KSTL below.
Specifics for KSTL: Although VFR conditions were reported at TAF
issuance time, such conditions are likely to be short lived based
on surrounding IFR obs and prevailing flow. Rain will continue on
and off for a few more hours before ending, and there is also a
chance that the thunderstorms developing over eastern OK and
southwestern MO may spread northeastward towards KSTL. This
potential will be closely monitored over the next few hours.
Measurable precipitation then ends with the passage of a cold
front between 06-08z. Drier air will lead to improving cigs,
especially after 12-15z. Beyond the end of the TAF period, fog
and/or stratus is expected to redevelop on Saturday night due to
the moist ground.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
328 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS WIND.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR MTNS SO FAR...AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NW WE ARE SEEING SOME ECHOES FORM SE OF BILLINGS...AS WAS
EXPECTED. STRONGEST ASCENT IS PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SO PCPN
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE BIG HORNS. FISHER CK SNOTEL ABOVE COOKE
CITY PICKED UP 6 INCHES OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY.
ATTENTION TURNS QUICKLY TO INCREASING PACIFIC JET AND ENERGY ALONG
THE BC COAST. LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD COMMENCE BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR NEXT LIVINGSTON...BIG TIMBER...BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS
WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE A
MORE DYNAMIC EVENT WITH FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW...SO SHOULD BE A
SOLID WIND ADVISORY WITH GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. CORE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW...60 KTS PER THE GFS AND
70 KTS PER THE NAM...WILL PUSH INTO THE CRAZY MTN/WHEATLAND COUNTY
AREA 12-18Z TOMORROW. LATEST RAP IS CONSISTENT WITH THESE SPEEDS
AT 14Z TOMORROW. SUBSIDENCE FROM PAC SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
MECHANISM TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...SO FEEL WE SHOULD SEE
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH FROM MELVILLE TO HARLOWTON TO A LITTLE SOUTH
OF JUDITH GAP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THOUGH SFC AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL NOT BE PERFECTLY LINKED UP. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WARNING TO COVER THESE AREAS. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODEST DECREASE
IN THE WIND BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND PRESSURE RISES AND AS NEXT GAP
EVENT GETS WARMED UP. FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...INCREASED MIXING
WITH UP TO 40-45 KTS OF 850MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD STRONG GUSTS AS
FAR EAST AS BILLINGS BY LATE MORNING...WHERE SFC GUSTS WILL REACH
40-50 MPH. AN OVERALL WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP
HIGH WIND WATCHES INTACT ACROSS OUR WEST FROM SAT-MON. WITH 700MB
WINDS TO 80 KTS AND A TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT THERE SHOULD BE 70+
MPH GUSTS AT THE GAP LOCATIONS...WITH A BIT LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
OUR WEST. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FIND A TIME WHEN MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY COULD BE A THREAT...AND THINK SATURDAY IS A RISK. NAM MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT SHOWS A REGION OF NEAR 90 KT OF MTN TOP WIND
ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FRONT BY 18Z SATURDAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND
LATER WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE
LEE OF THE MTNS SOMETIME IN THE MIDDAY TO EVENING TIME PERIOD ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE PREFRONTAL HOURS BEING MOST FAVORED FOR THIS
TO OCCUR. COLD ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZING WILL REDUCE THE MTN
WAVE THREAT LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS TO COVER THIS. NO
DOUBT THE WINDS WILL BE SCREAMING ON THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE RED
LODGE...SO OUTDOOR RECREATIONISTS TAKE NOTE.
OTHERWISE...MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES LATE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT BEING THE EXPECTED TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.
WILL KEEP POPS HIGH AND SNOW AMOUNTS SPREAD OVER THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS. ACCUMS SHOULD ADD UP TO EXCEED A FOOT OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WARMEST AIRMASS
WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+10C WITHIN THERMAL SFC TROF. WIND SHIFT MAY OCCUR TOO LATE FOR
BILLINGS TO MAXIMIZE ITS TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...PER
USUAL INFLUENCE FROM THE CLARKS FORK/SW WINDS...BUT IF WINDS DO
SHIFT WESTERLY BEFORE 00Z WE COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 50S. SNOW
COVER WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. AS IT STANDS...FEEL SOME AREAS WILL
SEE 50+ DEGREE HIGHS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...PRODUCING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
PICKING UP ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD WILL PUSH EAST DURING
THE DAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL SKIM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
WINDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE HELPING
TO PUSH 45 TO 50 KTS OF 850 HPA AND 700 HPA WIND TOWARD THE
SURFACE.
A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY STRONG 850 AND 700 HPA
WINDS. MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH 60 TO 90 KNOTS OF WIND
CONCENTRATED AROUND 850MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MAGNITUDE OF WIND...EXPECT A STRONG MIXED
WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON...BIG TIMBER AND UP TO HARLOWTON. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE STRONG ALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS THAT MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL THERE. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
MODELS WANT TO KEEP PLENTY OF WIND AROUND ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
A MORE MODEST 50 KTS OR SO AT 850 MB. THUS THE WINDY PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS MONDAY
MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE MOIST FLOW MAY START TO
SUBSIDE BY MIDWEEK...ENDING THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT NEAR KLVM AND IN THE NEARBY
FOOTHILLS...WITH GUSTS 50 TO 55 KTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/042 030/048 034/043 034/046 032/044 029/044 027/038
12/J 11/N 21/N 02/W 31/N 11/N 12/W
LVM 031/040 033/049 032/040 034/043 031/043 029/042 030/034
23/W 22/W 32/W 22/W 21/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 018/040 021/047 027/040 028/042 028/039 024/041 020/033
32/W 12/J 22/W 13/W 31/N 11/N 12/J
MLS 019/036 020/040 028/035 025/038 023/036 022/038 019/032
22/J 12/W 32/J 14/J 32/J 11/N 12/J
4BQ 020/038 020/045 029/036 026/041 026/038 022/042 021/032
53/J 11/B 32/J 14/J 32/J 11/N 11/N
BHK 021/037 020/040 029/032 021/038 023/035 018/039 019/031
22/J 11/B 32/J 13/J 22/J 11/N 11/N
SHR 017/041 021/048 027/038 023/041 025/042 021/044 020/034
52/W 00/N 23/W 12/J 31/N 11/U 12/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 28-41-63-65-66.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 41-65-66.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 56.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
310 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND SNOW
COVER HAS IMPACTED TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH THE STRATUS SLOW TO
ERODE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES...WHILE A NEW AREA OF STRATUS IS
ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH KS EARLY THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED
TO REACH THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S SO FAR WITH A FEW MORE HOURS
OF INSOLATION LEFT.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY ENOUGH
TO LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE RAP AND
HRRR INDICATE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE FOG. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS INDICATED ON THE
295K SURFACE...PRIMARILY ORIENTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE
LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD
MORNING AND THIS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THIS AREA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP INITIALLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN
SATURATE TO MORE OF A IP/SN SOUNDING. HAVE MENTIONED ZL/IP FOR NOW
WITH PCPN TYPE TRANSITIONING TO R/S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
BE AROUND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE
DRIEST AMONGST THE MODELS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL CWA AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE TRANSLATING EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AND
A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS FM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MORE ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SPC
WRF...GFS...ECMWF AND EVEN THE GEM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED PCPN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW INITIALLY THEN DRY OUT/WARM BEHIND THE TROUGH
AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SIMPLE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PCPN TYPE ATTM.
WITH A WARMING TEMP PROFILE...GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINOR
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY UNDER ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT/CLOUDS DECREASING IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH THIS
RIDGE...AND A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
HELP BRING WARMER AIR TO THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. WENT A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS...SEE NO REASON WHY WE CANNOT REACH THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN NEAR
50.
BY SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT REINTRODUCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES DURING
THE DAY AND NIGHT ON SUNDAY.
THE WAVE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER 850
MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. PERHAPS MONDAY MIGHT NEED TO
BE A TAD COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT STILL CURRENTLY EXPECTING MID 40S
FOR HIGHS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...NUMEROUS WAVES CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTH AND SKIRT ALONG THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THEM SUGGEST
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OR A LONG LASTING COLD SPELL.
IN FACT...RIDGING REBOUNDS ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR 50. TOWARDS THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS TIMING OF STRATUS AND HOW
LOW CIGS MAY DROP. CURRENTLY THE STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS
KGRI BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL ATTM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING/CIGS
LOWERING AFTER DARK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR TONIGHT AND VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR IN BR. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATELLITE IS GIVING A GOOD CLEARING SIGNAL WITH THE ARCTIC
STRATUS DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850 WINDS ARE
CLEARLY SOUTHWEST SHUNTING THESE CLOUDS RAPIDLY EAST. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE RAP IS SUGGESTING REFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BUT THE 06Z NAM INDICATES THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP
BUT FARTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF SOLID WEST AND SOUTHWEST 800 MB
WINDS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/OR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. SIMILARLY...LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO JUST THE 20S WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FASTER 06Z NAM IS EVEN
SHUNTING THE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO ANY SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ECM WAS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH ACROSS KS WHILE THE THE GFS WAS ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE GEM WAS EAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET WAS IN
THE MIDDLE LIKE THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SNOW CHANCES HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE VS
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE WA/OR SYSTEM
SLOWS THEN MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TOMORROW A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB DURING
THE DAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN
OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WAS LOST FOR THE 06Z
UPDATE. THIS PROVIDES HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE IN A LOW PRECIP/IF ANY TYPE OF AN EVENT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A DIVING JET TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND WEAK OMEGA
IN A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD RESULT IN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER AT
TIMES TO A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND LIFT GENERALLY ABOVE THE HIGHEST RH...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
EXPANDS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 10 C IN
THE SW...ABOVE ZERO IN THE NE. GUIDANCE REBOUNDS TEMPS
NICELY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 50S SW...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN FROM THE NW...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER LL MOISTURE IS LACKING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
QUICK PACE OF SYSTEM AND TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED LOW SLGHT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES DEPENDING
ON TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK PATTERN CONTINUES TO SEE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH FAST MOVING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES PENDING TIMING OF THE WAVES. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND FORECAST IS DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS PENDING TIME OF DAY...MAY NEED TO ADD
A MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSING WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT DRY AIR FORECASTED IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION AS
VIRGA WITH LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO
KEEP CLOUD BASES FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000 FT AGL...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING SOME TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
533 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATELLITE IS GIVING A GOOD CLEARING SIGNAL WITH THE ARCTIC
STRATUS DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850 WINDS ARE
CLEARLY SOUTHWEST SHUNTING THESE CLOUDS RAPIDLY EAST. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE RAP IS SUGGESTING REFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BUT THE 06Z NAM INDICATES THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP
BUT FARTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF SOLID WEST AND SOUTHWEST 800 MB
WINDS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/OR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. SIMILARLY...LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO JUST THE 20S WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FASTER 06Z NAM IS EVEN
SHUNTING THE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO ANY SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ECM WAS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH ACROSS KS WHILE THE THE GFS WAS ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE GEM WAS EAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET WAS IN
THE MIDDLE LIKE THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SNOW CHANCES HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE VS
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE WA/OR SYSTEM
SLOWS THEN MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TOMORROW A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB DURING
THE DAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN
OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WAS LOST FOR THE 06Z
UPDATE. THIS PROVIDES HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE IN A LOW PRECIP/IF ANY TYPE OF AN EVENT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A DIVING JET TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND WEAK OMEGA
IN A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD RESULT IN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER AT
TIMES TO A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND LIFT GENERALLY ABOVE THE HIGHEST RH...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
EXPANDS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 10 C IN
THE SW...ABOVE ZERO IN THE NE. GUIDANCE REBOUNDS TEMPS
NICELY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 50S SW...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN FROM THE NW...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER LL MOISTURE IS LACKING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
QUICK PACE OF SYSTEM AND TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED LOW SLGHT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES DEPENDING
ON TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK PATTERN CONTINUES TO SEE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH FAST MOVING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES PENDING TIMING OF THE WAVES. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND FORECAST IS DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS PENDING TIME OF DAY...MAY NEED TO ADD
A MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSING WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE INTO NWRN NEB AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OR/WA THIS MORNING.
SOME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR ERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG OR EAST
OF HIGHWAY 183.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATELLITE IS GIVING A GOOD CLEARING SIGNAL WITH THE ARCTIC
STRATUS DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850 WINDS ARE
CLEARLY SOUTHWEST SHUNTING THESE CLOUDS RAPIDLY EAST. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE RAP IS SUGGESTING REFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BUT THE 06Z NAM INDICATES THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP
BUT FARTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF SOLID WEST AND SOUTHWEST 800 MB
WINDS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/OR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. SIMILARLY...LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO JUST THE 20S WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FASTER 06Z NAM IS EVEN
SHUNTING THE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO ANY SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ECM WAS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH ACROSS KS WHILE THE THE GFS WAS ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE GEM WAS EAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET WAS IN
THE MIDDLE LIKE THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SNOW CHANCES HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE VS
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE WA/OR SYSTEM
SLOWS THEN MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TOMORROW A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB DURING
THE DAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN
OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WAS LOST FOR THE 06Z
UPDATE. THIS PROVIDES HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE IN A LOW PRECIP/IF ANY TYPE OF AN EVENT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A DIVING JET TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND WEAK OMEGA
IN A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD RESULT IN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER AT
TIMES TO A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND LIFT GENERALLY ABOVE THE HIGHEST RH...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
EXPANDS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 10 C IN
THE SW...ABOVE ZERO IN THE NE. GUIDANCE REBOUNDS TEMPS
NICELY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 50S SW...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN FROM THE NW...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER LL MOISTURE IS LACKING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
QUICK PACE OF SYSTEM AND TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED LOW SLGHT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES DEPENDING
ON TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK PATTERN CONTINUES TO SEE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH FAST MOVING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES PENDING TIMING OF THE WAVES. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND FORECAST IS DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS PENDING TIME OF DAY...MAY NEED TO ADD
A MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSING WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING THE LAST HOUR. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH...WITH IMPACT TO KVTN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE SOME REDUCED VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...FROM FOG...HOWEVER OBS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY YET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT IT TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. TOMORROW MORNING
THE IFR STATUS WILL MIX OUT AND SKIES BECOME SCT/BKN VFR...AND
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1202 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
FCST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LOW COMPARED TO
REALITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. USED CONSENSUS
OF SHORT-TERM MODELS TO INCREASE THEM THRU 9 AM...WHICH MODESTLY
BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP ABOUT 3F.
A VERY COMPLEX CLOUD COVER SITUATION IS UNFOLDING...WITH A TONGUE
OF CLEAR SKIES FROM STOCKTON KS UP TO THE TRI-CITIES...WITH LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO THE NW...AND MID-LEVEL CIGS TO THE SE.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN HOW SKY COVER EVOLVES THE REST OF THE NIGHT
...BUT THE UPS CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLY
A TOUCH OF IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
5-10 MPH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE
EXTREMELY LOW VSBYS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA...THE
THREAT FOR FRZG DRIZZLE HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN.
OVERALL...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER DUE TO STRATUS COVERAGE
AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE...AS WELL AS THE QPF FIELD.
ALTHOUGH BROKEN BOW HAS DIPPED TO AS LOW AS 2 MILES
VISIBILITY...THIS APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED...SO LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST. GFS LAMP DATA SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SITUATION...AND THIS WOULD INDICATE NOT INCLUDING ANY FOG
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EASTWARDS. ON AVERAGE...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW AND
OTHERS WITH LESS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING WHILE STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ALONG A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD IA/IL. IN RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA WILL SPREAD
W/E TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MODELS
INDICATE PRESENCE OF DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND WAA/LIFT OVER THE
LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE
LLVL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM BUT IS PRESENT NONTHELESS. OUR AREA
IS ON THE BUFFER OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW POPS AND THE GFS HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS
FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE RAP IS THE MOST ROBUST IN SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND THE HRRR IS TRENDING TOWARD A FOG
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE SREF DO NOT. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY WILL TREND WITH MORE OF STRATUS VS FOG FOR
NOW AND HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE RETURN FLOW AND AS CLOUDS
DEPART WEST/EAST. HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SOME DEGREE WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE UPSWING COMPARED TO
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST 24 HRS OR SO.
THURSDAY EVENING STARTS OUT WITH W/SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE REGION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS..THIS
TROUGH SLIDES E/SE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL WORK THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z THE 5/700MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP THROUGH ERN NEB/KS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY PERIOD IS
NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND BECAUSE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN A E/SE SHIFT OF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. ALREADY BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE SFC SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SRLY WINDS SET UP OVER THE CWA. THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THAT...WITH MODELS ALSO
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE SWRLY FLOW AT 850MB...HELPING WITH SOME
WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z...WITH ONLY THE FZDZ MENTION GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH...AS THAT SRLY FLOW HELPS TO MOISTEN UP LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. THROUGH THE 12-18Z PERIOD...INHERITED FORECAST
ONLY HAD 50 POPS GOING IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WAS FINE
KEEPING THAT GOING...BUT DID TRIM THE WRN EDGE. THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MUCH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF THE LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BEING
E/SE OF THE CWA...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC/LOWER LEVEL COOL
FRONT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER. ALONG WITH THIS...MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE 7/500
MB TROUGH AXIS...THEN SWINGING THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...SO ADDED SOME LOW POPS BACK WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THAT FAR WEST BEHIND THE SFC/LOWER LEVEL FRONT
WONT BE AS GOOD...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THAT
MID LEVEL AXIS TO AMOUNT TO A LOT. ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH PRECIP THE CWA WILL ACTUALLY SEE...THE THERMAL PROFILE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS IS ALSO STILL IN QUESTION. STILL A CONCERN WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARMER LAYER OFF THE SFC...ITS NOT OVERLY
WARM...SO WHERE THE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING...SOME QUESTION
WITH WHETHER IT WOULD FALL AS FZRA OR SLEET. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON
SFC TEMPS...KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING...SO KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH SFC TEMPS WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THE 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...SO HAVE PTYPE MENTION AS RA/SN. PLENTY OF
THINGS TO IRON OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.
AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FORECAST
REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING TO SEE
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES.
MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS AT LEAST RISE INTO THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY IS THE ONLY OTHER TIME FRAME WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
GOING...AND THEY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF OVER THE AREA...WITH REALLY NO CHANCE FOR BETTER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK IN BEFORE IT GETS HERE. ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS/GEM A
TOUCH QUICKER SHOWING IT MAINLY A DAYTIME SUNDAY EVENT...WITH THE
ECMWF LINGERING THINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND COOLER
AIR - WHICH LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
40S...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT MAY SEE SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
LIVED BATCH OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF ALL OF THIS IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. HIGHS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
REST OF TONIGHT THRU 12Z: HIGHLY VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING FROM THE SW. SO EXPECT MVFR
CIG TO BECOME SCT. WHETHER THE STRATUS RETURNS BEFORE DAYBREAK
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. CLEARING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG /AND POSSIBLY IFR/ WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CLOSE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
THU: ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES. UNSURE IF STRATUS WILL BE AROUND.
EXPECT VFR TO DEVELOP BY 15Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT STRATOCU
AROUND 2K FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 23 KTS AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
THU EVE: HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WHICH SUGGESTS THE
RETURN OF FOG/STRATUS. HOWEVER...S WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL KEEP THE
LOW-LEVELS MIXED. HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO CIGS/VSBYS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT SHOULD MITIGATE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO /VLIFR/.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1014 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER DUE TO STRATUS COVERAGE
AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE...AS WELL AS THE QPF FIELD.
ALTHOUGH BROKEN BOW HAS DIPPED TO AS LOW AS 2 MILES
VISIBILITY...THIS APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED...SO LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST. GFS LAMP DATA SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SITUATION...AND THIS WOULD INDICATE NOT INCLUDING ANY FOG
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EASTWARDS. ON AVERAGE...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW AND
OTHERS WITH LESS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING WHILE STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ALONG A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD IA/IL. IN RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA WILL SPREAD
W/E TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MODELS
INDICATE PRESENCE OF DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND WAA/LIFT OVER THE
LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE
LLVL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM BUT IS PRESENT NONTHELESS. OUR AREA
IS ON THE BUFFER OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW POPS AND THE GFS HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS
FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE RAP IS THE MOST ROBUST IN SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND THE HRRR IS TRENDING TOWARD A FOG
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE SREF DO NOT. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY WILL TREND WITH MORE OF STRATUS VS FOG FOR
NOW AND HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE RETURN FLOW AND AS CLOUDS
DEPART WEST/EAST. HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SOME DEGREE WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE UPSWING COMPARED TO
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST 24 HRS OR SO.
THURSDAY EVENING STARTS OUT WITH W/SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE REGION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS..THIS
TROUGH SLIDES E/SE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL WORK THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z THE 5/700MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP THROUGH ERN NEB/KS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY PERIOD IS
NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND BECAUSE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN A E/SE SHIFT OF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. ALREADY BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE SFC SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SRLY WINDS SET UP OVER THE CWA. THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THAT...WITH MODELS ALSO
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE SWRLY FLOW AT 850MB...HELPING WITH SOME
WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z...WITH ONLY THE FZDZ MENTION GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH...AS THAT SRLY FLOW HELPS TO MOISTEN UP LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. THROUGH THE 12-18Z PERIOD...INHERITED FORECAST
ONLY HAD 50 POPS GOING IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WAS FINE
KEEPING THAT GOING...BUT DID TRIM THE WRN EDGE. THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MUCH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF THE LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BEING
E/SE OF THE CWA...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC/LOWER LEVEL COOL
FRONT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER. ALONG WITH THIS...MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE 7/500
MB TROUGH AXIS...THEN SWINGING THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...SO ADDED SOME LOW POPS BACK WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THAT FAR WEST BEHIND THE SFC/LOWER LEVEL FRONT
WONT BE AS GOOD...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THAT
MID LEVEL AXIS TO AMOUNT TO A LOT. ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH PRECIP THE CWA WILL ACTUALLY SEE...THE THERMAL PROFILE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS IS ALSO STILL IN QUESTION. STILL A CONCERN WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARMER LAYER OFF THE SFC...ITS NOT OVERLY
WARM...SO WHERE THE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING...SOME QUESTION
WITH WHETHER IT WOULD FALL AS FZRA OR SLEET. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON
SFC TEMPS...KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING...SO KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH SFC TEMPS WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THE 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...SO HAVE PTYPE MENTION AS RA/SN. PLENTY OF
THINGS TO IRON OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.
AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FORECAST
REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING TO SEE
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES.
MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS AT LEAST RISE INTO THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY IS THE ONLY OTHER TIME FRAME WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
GOING...AND THEY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF OVER THE AREA...WITH REALLY NO CHANCE FOR BETTER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK IN BEFORE IT GETS HERE. ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS/GEM A
TOUCH QUICKER SHOWING IT MAINLY A DAYTIME SUNDAY EVENT...WITH THE
ECMWF LINGERING THINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND COOLER
AIR - WHICH LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
40S...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT MAY SEE SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
LIVED BATCH OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF ALL OF THIS IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. HIGHS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO TANK TONIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN OVER
TIME. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAN
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...BUT DISCOUNTING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTIONS DUE TO RECENT INITIATION ERRORS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
758 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IT`S
ASSOCIATED FRONTS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BIT OF PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. SUNDAY WILL TURN BREEZY AND COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE AS GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE NOT LIKELY TO FALL ALL THAT MUCH. THESE
WILL START TO CLIMB IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS LOW- LEVEL WIND
FIELDS STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I`LL BE MONITORING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW- LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS
PLACES THE 925 MB 0C ISOTHERM ALONG THE NY STATE THRUWAY EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF SARATOGA SPRINGS TO BRATTLEBORO...WHICH MATCHES
UP NICELY WITH LATEST NAM/WRF PROGS. EXPECTATION IS THAT ONCE THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRONGER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION...RESULTING IN COMPLETE MELTING
TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREAS AND COLD RAIN
ELSEHWERE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 LOOK GOOD AT THIS
POINT.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDING ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL ICE JAM FLOODING
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WARM TEMPS AND MELTING SNOW AND ICE.
CONDITIONS START OUT FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING MILD TEMPERATURES AROUND FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS ARE EITHER BELOW OR RIGHT ABOUT
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAWN. WHILE MOST
OF THE REGION WILL WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER
ASCENT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MOVES IN...AREAS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND THE FAR NORTHERN CORNER OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN MASSENA WILL LIKELY STAY LOCKED IN BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE A CHANGEOVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING MID SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE TO FORM WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
BEING SLICK ROAD SURFACES ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND UNTREATED
ROADWAYS. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 417 PM EST FRIDAY...BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...SAY 10 AM OR
SO...SURFACE TEMPS WARM RAPIDLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY 925-850MB JET OF 50-70KTS MOVES IN.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURS FROM
700-500MB IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE THE BEST QG FORCING ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 300% OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE
40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE ALL SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH MODERATE RAIN...RAPID
WARMING AND SNOW MELT ON TOP OF FROZEN GROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICE JAMS AND STREET FLOODING INCREASES AND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FOR THIS EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ALL THE
DETAILS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO VERMONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST SO DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH PRECIP AROUND BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WE`LL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY BUT MILD WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUING THEIR DISCREPANCIES ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MEAN
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER MERIDIONAL TROUGH AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A
POTENTIAL SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME I`LL
LEAN MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SLOWER/DEEPER EURO/UKMET/HPC
SOLUTIONS GIVEN GFS`S INHERENT BIAS TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DURING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIMES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A RETURN TO MORE INCLEMENT/RAINY
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RVR VALLEY ACROSS OR
JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. QUICK MOVING NATURE OF SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL
DRY SLOT WOULD LIKELY KEEP QPF WITHIN REASONABLE LEVELS...BUT WITH
A PRONOUNCED WARM SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT/ICE MOVEMENT WOULD APPEAR QUITE
POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN MAY TRANSITION BACK TO A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW/SHSN BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT UNDER FAIRLY ROBUST POST-
FRONTAL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL JANUARY WEATHER BY
NEXT WED-FRI AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WON`T BE EXCESSIVELY CHILLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS
SO LOOKING AT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 25.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN MAINLY AFTER 08Z SATURDAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING ANY POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN TO CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY 13Z SATURDAY...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MAINLY IFR BY 15Z SATURDAY IN RAIN.
ALSO...EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
BY 13Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...COLDER AIR RETURNS SUNDAY WITH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EST FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE POTENTIAL ICE JAM AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL OF 0.5" TO OVER AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT AND PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TOWARD
THE NW. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL GO DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF WITH
FROZEN GROUND (6" FROST DEPTH AT BTV MEASURED AT 12Z WEDNESDAY)
AND EXISTING SNOW/ICE COVER ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING PROLONGED
COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE STRETCH PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. SOME
MELTING SNOW AND ICE WILL ADD TO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL.
THE ANTICIPATED WARMUP AND RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE
MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL BREAKUP. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH QUICKER RESPONSE TO RUNOFF AND
THINNER ICE COVER. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE THE
FIRST PROBLEMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAIN STEM RIVERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WINOOSKI
SOUTH...COULD SEE PROBLEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH A POTENTIAL
CREST SUNDAY. THESE SOUTHERN BASINS WILL SEE THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AND WARMEST TEMPS SO ICE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THAT SAID...CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED ICE JAM PROBLEMS FOR ALL OF NORTHERN VT AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH KNOWN EXISTING JAMS
WHICH COULD SEE ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED
STREAMFLOW/RIVER LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO ICE/SNOW COVERED
DRAINS AND CULVERTS. TIMING FOR MINOR STREET FLOODING WOULD
MAINLY BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...WINDY AND ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE AS CHANNELED SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS TONIGHT. WAVES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
THE BROAD LAKE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND WAVES OF 3 TO
5 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND
RAINFALL INCREASING RUNOFF INTO THE LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ026-034.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/WGH
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
620 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IT`S
ASSOCIATED FRONTS BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BIT OF PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS
RAIN. SUNDAY WILL TURN BREEZY AND COLDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EST FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE AS GOING FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING ARE NOT LIKELY TO FALL ALL THAT MUCH. THESE
WILL START TO CLIMB IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS LOW- LEVEL WIND
FIELDS STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. I`LL BE MONITORING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE LOW- LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS
PLACES THE 925 MB 0C ISOTHERM ALONG THE NY STATE THRUWAY EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF SARATOGA SPRINGS TO BRATTLEBORO...WHICH MATCHES
UP NICELY WITH LATEST NAM/WRF PROGS. EXPECTATION IS THAT ONCE THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRONGER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION...RESULTING IN COMPLETE MELTING
TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREAS AND COLD RAIN
ELSEHWERE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30 LOOK GOOD AT THIS
POINT.
PREVIOUS NEAR-TERM DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 417 PM EST FOLLOWS...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDING ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY EAST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL ICE JAM FLOODING
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...WARM TEMPS AND MELTING SNOW AND ICE.
CONDITIONS START OUT FAIRLY TRANQUIL FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION TODAY SHIFTS EAST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LEAVING GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS IN THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
EXTENDED EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING 850-700MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING MILD TEMPERATURES AROUND FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT TEMPS ARE EITHER BELOW OR RIGHT ABOUT
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...BUT SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS DAWN. WHILE MOST
OF THE REGION WILL WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER
ASCENT AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT MOVES IN...AREAS EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND THE FAR NORTHERN CORNER OF THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN MASSENA WILL LIKELY STAY LOCKED IN BELOW
FREEZING. THAT SAID...A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY IN THESE LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE A CHANGEOVER
TO PLAIN RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING MID SATURDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZE TO FORM WITH THE MAIN IMPACT
BEING SLICK ROAD SURFACES ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY AND UNTREATED
ROADWAYS. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 417 PM EST FRIDAY...BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY...SAY 10 AM OR
SO...SURFACE TEMPS WARM RAPIDLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE INTL
BORDER AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY 925-850MB JET OF 50-70KTS MOVES IN.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURS FROM
700-500MB IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AROUND MID-DAY BEFORE THE BEST QG FORCING ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO OVER 300% OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE
40S WITH A FEW 50S POSSIBLE ALL SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH MODERATE RAIN...RAPID
WARMING AND SNOW MELT ON TOP OF FROZEN GROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICE JAMS AND STREET FLOODING INCREASES AND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FOR THIS EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR ALL THE
DETAILS.
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO VERMONT SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THOUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST SO DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH PRECIP AROUND BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SO WE`LL LIKELY
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY BUT MILD WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 237 PM EST FRIDAY...ACTIVE WX PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUING THEIR DISCREPANCIES ON EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MEAN
CENTRAL CONUS UPPER MERIDIONAL TROUGH AND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF A
POTENTIAL SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM TUE/TUE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME I`LL
LEAN MORE STRONGLY TOWARD THE SLOWER/DEEPER EURO/UKMET/HPC
SOLUTIONS GIVEN GFS`S INHERENT BIAS TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
DURING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIMES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE ON MONDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES...A RETURN TO MORE INCLEMENT/RAINY
WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY TUESDAY AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RVR VALLEY ACROSS OR
JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. QUICK MOVING NATURE OF SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL
DRY SLOT WOULD LIKELY KEEP QPF WITHIN REASONABLE LEVELS...BUT WITH
A PRONOUNCED WARM SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT/ICE MOVEMENT WOULD APPEAR QUITE
POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT PCPN MAY TRANSITION BACK TO A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW/SHSN BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT UNDER FAIRLY ROBUST POST-
FRONTAL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION.
THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL JANUARY WEATHER BY
NEXT WED-FRI AS TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN AS MEAN UPPER TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WON`T BE EXCESSIVELY CHILLY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS
SO LOOKING AT HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY FROM 15 TO 25.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME VFR CIGS EARLY (THRU
00Z)...BUT GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THEREAFTER
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO GENERALLY ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND
WHILE SOME BRIEF POCKETS OF -FZRA ARE POSSIBLE EARLY...THIS WILL
MAINLY BE A RAIN EVENT FROM 12Z ONWARD. WINDS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY (NORTHEASTERLY AT KMSS) FROM 5 TO 10
KTS...INCREASING AND OCCNLY GUSTY (MAINLY AT KBTV/KSLK/KRUT)
AFTER 06Z. SOME LLWS CONCERNS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 12Z ONWARD AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET FROM 40-50 KTS ACCOMPANIES MAIN
PUSH OF PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...COLDER AIR RETURNS SUNDAY WITH
ANY LINGERING PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO SCATTERED MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SNOW SHOWERS
AS A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 415 PM EST FRIDAY...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
21Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CHAMPLAIN ISLANDS AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
MAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE POTENTIAL ICE JAM AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AS TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 40S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL OF 0.5" TO OVER AN INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VT AND PROGRESSIVELY LOWER TOWARD
THE NW. MUCH OF THE RAINFALL WILL GO DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF WITH
FROZEN GROUND (6" FROST DEPTH AT BTV MEASURED AT 12Z WEDNESDAY)
AND EXISTING SNOW/ICE COVER ACROSS THE REGION FOLLOWING PROLONGED
COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE STRETCH PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. SOME
MELTING SNOW AND ICE WILL ADD TO RUNOFF FROM RAINFALL.
THE ANTICIPATED WARMUP AND RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ICE
MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL BREAKUP. THE SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS
WILL BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH QUICKER RESPONSE TO RUNOFF AND
THINNER ICE COVER. SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD HAVE THE
FIRST PROBLEMS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. MAIN STEM RIVERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WINOOSKI
SOUTH...COULD SEE PROBLEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND WITH A POTENTIAL
CREST SUNDAY. THESE SOUTHERN BASINS WILL SEE THE GREATEST
RAINFALL AND WARMEST TEMPS SO ICE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE MOST
PRONOUNCED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT. THAT SAID...CAN`T RULE
OUT ISOLATED ICE JAM PROBLEMS FOR ALL OF NORTHERN VT AND IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH KNOWN EXISTING JAMS
WHICH COULD SEE ADDITIONAL MOVEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED
STREAMFLOW/RIVER LEVELS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LOCAL STREET FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY DUE TO ICE/SNOW COVERED
DRAINS AND CULVERTS. TIMING FOR MINOR STREET FLOODING WOULD
MAINLY BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM EST FRIDAY...WINDY AND ROUGH TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE LAKE AS CHANNELED SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS TONIGHT. WAVES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS
THE BROAD LAKE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND WAVES OF 3 TO
5 FEET WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY...WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND
RAINFALL INCREASING RUNOFF INTO THE LAKE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ026-034.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NYZ028>031-034-035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG/KGM
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MILDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS LOW AS 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND THIS MORNING WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE
ADVECTING MODIFIED ATLANTIC AIR ONSHORE. ATLANTIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
OVER THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
EXPANDING DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NOW SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AREA OF LIFT ALONG THE
285-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES WAS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MODELS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD TODAY...BUT SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THIS LIFT IS CURRENTLY AIMED FARTHER EAST. THIS
MASSIVELY COMPLICATES SKY COVER FORECASTS SINCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CLOUDS PERSISTING ALL DAY ALONG THE COAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
NEITHER THE 06Z NAM OR 06Z GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUDS...AND
EVEN THE 10Z RUC SHOWS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE
CLOUDS OBSERVED. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE I AM FORECASTING SKIES TO
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY INLAND...AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
COAST WITH AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OLD ARCTIC HIGH IS NOW NORTHEAST OF HATTERAS AND IS MOVING OUT
TO SEA. A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN
TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HELP TO VEER WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 850 MB MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. 850 MB TEMPS CURRENTLY
AROUND +2C SHOULD WARM TO +5C BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO +8C LATE
TONIGHT.
ASSUMING CLOUDS BEHAVE OUR HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE
TRICKY ESPECIALLY IN THE WILMINGTON AREA WHERE EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW STOUT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO WRECK
OUR FORECAST. IF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INHIBIT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THE ONSHORE WIND SHOULD HOLD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE COAST...WITH UPPER 30S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...AND ONLY 20-30
PERCENT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT SHOOTS NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
ONE FINAL NOTE: TODAY MARKS THE POINT IN WILMINGTON WHERE THE DAILY
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THEIR ANNUAL CURVES. THE
RAW NCDC DATA SHOWS AVERAGES FOR TODAY OF 55.9/35.3 AND THOSE BEGIN
TO TICK UPWARD ON JANUARY 13TH. BY THE END OF JANUARY THE NORMAL
HIGH SHOULD BE UP BY 2 DEGREES WITH A ONE DEGREE RISE IN THE NORMAL
LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS COASTAL TROUGH PUSHED INLAND AND THEN LIFTS FARTHER NORTH
AS WARM FRONT BY LATE FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...INTO THE 60S FRI AND 70S ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
ON FRI WILL REMAIN FARTHER INLAND RIDING OVER SHALLOW DENSER COLD
AIR IN PLACE AND WILL SHOW BEST POPS THERE INITIALLY. BY SATURDAY
WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LLJ
WILL DEVELOP WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT THROUGH SAT AFTN. LOOKS LIKE
ALL WEATHER WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SHORE
SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND MILD AIR TO FOLLOW COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP
FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE COME MONDAY AS GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO KICK
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A WARMER MOISTER RETURN
FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. A DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MONDAY AS MID
TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFYING THE
SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TO TRACK UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT GFS KEEPS MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY TUES MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS TRACK THE DISTURBANCE UP
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT OVER LOCAL AREA BRINGING CLOUDY AND WET
WEATHER THROUGH TUES BEFORE H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTH PUSHING COLD FRONT
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO CLEAR OUT ALL WEATHER ON WED. BY THURS HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER.
OVERALL EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER BEHIND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES SUN AND MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WELL INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO TUES. BY WED GOING WITH DRY COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...LEAVING ALL WEATHER EAST OF LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS
5-8KFT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO
PERSIST TODAY WITH SCT/BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH NEARS OUR COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
GENERATE -RA...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR
KFLO AND KLBT OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW
ADVECTS MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA
COAST WILL DRIFT A BIT WESTWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING A SLOW VEERING OF
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. ANY REAL SHIFT TO
WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
EXPECTED WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE.
WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING ARE 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AS HIGH AS 16 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
FEW MORE KNOTS DURING THE DAY...PEAKING EARLY THIS EVENING AT 14-18
KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FETCH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH...AND SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FEET TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR 6-FOOT SEAS TO DEVELOP NEAR 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF GEORGETOWN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. IF
THIS THREAT BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT WE MAY NEED TO RAISE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES INLAND ON FRI AND THEN SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AS
WARM FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY LEAVING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT
LIGHTER ON SHORE FLOW TO BEGIN WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO
15-20 KTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL FURTHER INCREASE UP TO 25
KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING ON SHORE FETCH AND SOUTHERLY PUSH ON SATURDAY WILL RAISE
SEAS FROM TO 3-5 FT EARLY FRIDAY UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNA SHOWS SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
SAT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OFF SHORE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL
KNOCK NEAR SHORE SEAS DOWN RAPIDLY DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A DECREASING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN SW TO W FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY DOWN LESS THAN 4 FT MOST WATERS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
SEAS IN THE 2-4 FEET RANGE MOST WATERS THROUGH EARLY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD WATERS FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WATERS
MON NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
LATE EVENING UPDATE MAINLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER. THE RAP
IS HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AND HAVE FAVORED THAT MODEL FOR OVERNIGHT
TRENDS. THIS NECESSITATED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS...WITH COLDEST READINGS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE
MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE WARMER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/FLURRIES NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE EVENING...ALTHOUGH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT
TO TRAVEL IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL PULL SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT
MODEL AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONFIRM STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN A WARM
ADVECTION FIELD. DO NOT SEE AN EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST AS THE
COLD AIR ONLY SLOWLY SCOURS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR WIND HAZARDS
SUNDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY TWO MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS...MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS ALBERTA INTO
SASKATCHEWAN THEN INTO MANITOBA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACT...BUT IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN ABOVE 32F FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER ELSEWHERE. BY 00 UTC SUNDAY MODELS BRING WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
PRECIPITATION THEN DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. BEING IN THE DRY
SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE CYCLONE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SFC AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. COUPLED WITH WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...THERE IS AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DEPICTED TO BE NEAR 40KTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE OUR SNOW
COVER WILL LIKELY BE CRUSTED OVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN LOCATIONS. DID NOT MENTION BLOWING
SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
WE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN AND WIND POTENTIAL IN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. PERHAPS NOT
AS STRONG AS SUNDAYS WINDS IT APPEARS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER
SHOT OF MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS THE
CWA. WILL MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THIS TIME WITH A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH.
WE STILL LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE DRY SECTOR SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT
GUIDANCE (12Z GFS/ECMWF) ARE HINTING AT MID TO HIGH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING MODEL
TRENDS REGARDING THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
THE RAP IS MODELING LOW LEVEL IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ARE SKIRTING KBIS...AND
WILL MOVE INTO KJMS SHORTLY. THE RAP IS ALSO INDICATING A
SECONDARY BATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY IMPACTING KMOT/KJMS AND POSSIBLY KBIS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
721 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
UPDATE MAINLY TO ADD FLURRIES/PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE NORTH THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...OBS...AND MINOT RADAR
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES OR SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH THIS EVENING. MAJOR TRAVEL ISSUES NOT EXPECTED...BUT
SOME ROADS REMAIN SLICK FROM PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION AND RE-FREEZING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL PULL SOME COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. CURRENT
MODEL AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY...THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONFIRM STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN A WARM
ADVECTION FIELD. DO NOT SEE AN EFFICIENT TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM TO
THE SURFACE WITH THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION SURGE. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX NORTHWEST AS THE
COLD AIR ONLY SLOWLY SCOURS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR WIND HAZARDS
SUNDAY...THEN FOLLOWED BY TWO MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS...MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ON SATURDAY A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS ALBERTA INTO
SASKATCHEWAN THEN INTO MANITOBA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REACT...BUT IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN ABOVE 32F FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT...COLDER ELSEWHERE. BY 00 UTC SUNDAY MODELS BRING WARM
ADVECTION PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
PRECIPITATION THEN DEVELOPING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SAT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA. BEING IN THE DRY
SECTOR OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE CYCLONE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SFC AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. COUPLED WITH WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS ALOFT...THERE IS AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER ARRIVES ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS EAST INTO ONTARIO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
DEPICTED TO BE NEAR 40KTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE OUR SNOW
COVER WILL LIKELY BE CRUSTED OVER...THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN LOCATIONS. DID NOT MENTION BLOWING
SNOW IN THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
WE OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT THE FREEZING RAIN AND WIND POTENTIAL IN A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. PERHAPS NOT
AS STRONG AS SUNDAYS WINDS IT APPEARS. MODELS DO INDICATE A BETTER
SHOT OF MOISTURE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW...ACROSS THE
CWA. WILL MONITOR THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...THIS TIME WITH A MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH.
WE STILL LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE DRY SECTOR SO AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE BIGGEST CONCERN
WITH THIS FEATURE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT
GUIDANCE (12Z GFS/ECMWF) ARE HINTING AT MID TO HIGH ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS TO NEAR WARNING CRITERIA. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING MODEL
TRENDS REGARDING THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
THE RAP IS MODELING LOW LEVEL IFR/MVFR CLOUD DECK MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION IN KBIS TAF...IN ADDITION TO KMOT/KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF
HALLOCK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLEAR AREA WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA HAVE
STALLED WITH SUNSET...AND CLOUDS BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT ARE
MOVING INTO THE REGION QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. RAP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ADVECT INTO THE ENTIRE FA BY MIDNIGHT (WHICH MAKES
SENSE GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS). ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FA...LOWER
VSBY (LIKELY DUE TO FOG) REMAIN...AND RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN WINDS FINALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO THE ABOVE
THINKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES AND LOW END PCPN
CHANCES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL USE
BLEND FOR FORECAST. FOR TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CANADA. OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT COOLER BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
LIGHT MIXING.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS FA ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION
GETS GOING FROM THE VALLEY WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE IN THE 20S.
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
AT THE LEAST HOLD STEADY. MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN POTENTIAL IN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE. WITH WARM LAYER DEVELOPING ALOFT COULD SEE A MIX/
OR PATCHY ZR AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GEM/ECMWF MOST
BULLISH WITH PCPN POTENTIAL AND IF VERIFIES COULD SEE SOME
SLIPPERY AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND COOLING NOT TIL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET CLOSE TO IF NOT ABOVE FREEZING.
FAIRLY GOOD/QUICK SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
COLUMN BEGINS TO RECOVER MONDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION -SN POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
A NW FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IMPACTING THE FCST AREA.
HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS TIME.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST MON NIGHT WILL PROVIDE A LOW
CHANCE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO
REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR FOR TUESDAY.
5H HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WITH THIS WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST...HEIGHTS WILL THEN FALL
DURING THE DAY WED. THE SFC LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA
PUTTING THE AREA IN MILD WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW FOR WED. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW WED/WED
NIGHT THOUGH BOTH MODELS BRING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN MN
DURING THIS PERIOD. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETUP WED
NIGHT INTO THU WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE. WILL UP
THE WINDS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE MEAN UPPER TROF FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT
OF COLD AIR. AS A RESULT TEMPS FRI WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT KBJI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND NOT SURE WHEN IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR. BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING IS POSSIBLE...BUT WOULD NOT LAST TOO
LONG. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL AFFECT THE OTHER TAF SITES BY
MIDNIGHT (AS WINDS BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST)...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...FRAZIER/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
305 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
THE FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE ZONAL IN NATURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS BROUGHT A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAS BROUGHT A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT FALLING SNOW
WILL BE PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT SO KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES IN SOME
SPOTS THIS MORNING. ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS
FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAVE BROUGHT RISING
TEMPS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO AT THIS POINT. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN 25 BELOW AT EXCEPT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS.
WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WILL
CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY A BIT EARLY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE ZERO AND EVEN GETTING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY TRICKY AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUDS. THINK THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME CLEARING
OUT EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...SO KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS...BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AIR INTO THE AREA. KEPT HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SFC TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO AT THE
SFC. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT THINK THERE
COULD BE SOME PRECIP IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS GOING. THERE WILL BE SOME WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING
PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF WHATEVER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE THE TYPE JUST AS SNOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND NOT FALL OFF TOO
MUCH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...PUTTING THE AREA IN WESTERLY SFC FLOW BEFORE COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS MAY RISE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. KEPT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
OVER NW MN...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WARMER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH 1 TO 3C 850 MB TEMPS...IS
CORRECT.
AFTER SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS DURING RECENT DAYS...WITH LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE FLOW AND
MORE PACIFIC INFLUENCE IN THE AIR MASS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST LATE MON/MON NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES BRING IN COLDER TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS
TRANSITORY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND FOR WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
EXITING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE 03Z RAP INDICATES THAT
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...IFR CIGS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ONLY A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED HERE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RISING. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
COLDER AND WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER (BUT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
TEMPS CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WITH
THE RESULTING COLD WIND CHILLS. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THE SFC HIGH WAS
STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FA WITH LIGHT SOUTH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BAND OF CLOUDS ALMOST INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST FA NOW AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST
ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER UNTIL THESE REACH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA
THERE WILL BE SOME EARLY EVENING TEMP FALL WITH RATHER WEAK WINDS.
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS WILL GET DOWN INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ONE
MORE NIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS NEARING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORY BUT WILL KEEP MOST OTHER
COUNTIES FROM 00Z UNTIL 12Z THU. HAD CONSIDERED SEGMENTING THE
ADVISORY BUT TIMING CLOUDS WINDS AND TEMPS IS TOUGH SO WENT WITH ONE
GROUP AND LATER SHIFTS CAN TRIM COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. LOOKING AT
925MB WINDS REALLY CRANKING UP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD INSERTED SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND WILL
ALSO ADD SOME BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE KDVL REGION. DID NOT
ADD ANY BLSN AS THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION BUT THIS WILL
ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED. SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THIS COLD STRETCH ON THU MORNING. THU HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S LOOK REALLY GOOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
FOR FRI INTO SAT LEFT THE FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. LOOKING AT
PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SW FA GETTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS ON
FRI AND SAT SO THOSE AREAS MAY GET A LITTLE WARMER.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE TO EVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES. SUNDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C AND EVEN UP TO +6C IN
THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND PERHAPS A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE...WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
EXITING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE 03Z RAP INDICATES THAT
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...IFR CIGS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ONLY A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017-023-024-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1039 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIAMI VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE COUPLE HOURS. THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN MIAMI
VALLEY...JUST A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
ARRIVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING MID- LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...IT IS NOT APPARENT THAT CURRENT ECHOES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CWA ARE REACHING THE GROUND...SO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY
STILL BE A FEW HOURS OFF. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
FOR A WHILE...BEFORE RISING (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA)
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THE RAP WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THESE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...AS IT IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ILN CWA...EXCEEDING 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR JANUARY. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL COME ON
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA. WITH SOUNDINGS APPEARING MOIST ADIABATIC (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED)...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THERE APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF GENERALLY
JUST UNDER AN INCH...WHILE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN
AXIS OF OVER AN INCH THAT WORKS THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA. BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY ON THE HIGH-RES RUNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME LOCALIZED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY GET AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED
ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND MMEFS RUNS (USING NAEF/SREF/GEFS
INPUT)...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN TO LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. A FEW ACTION STAGE RIVER
READINGS...OR PERHAPS AN ADVISORY OR TWO...MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE BEING CONTINUED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
DISAPPEAR AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED...BUT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS (MIXING WITH SNOW LATE) APPEAR LIKELY.
THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME (UNDER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIXED LAYER WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...AND ABUNDANT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT ICE
CRYSTALS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FORM. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL
END UP BEING DRIZZLE (OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPS).
BY SUNDAY MORNING...RIDGING WILL BE ENTERING THE CWA...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY NOT ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR VERY QUICKLY...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA (WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING EARLIER IN THE SOUTH). WITH THE CWA RETURNING
TO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...TEMPS WILL RISE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN CROSS BACK UNDER THE FREEZING MARK
ON SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AS A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES UP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH READINGS BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL 30S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER COLD SURFACES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF IFR FOG AND CIGS ACROSS KDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THIS
AREA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE THE EVENING...BEFORE THIS BAND OF FOG
LIFTS NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEE
VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE RAIN BRINGS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO THOSE
LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
MVFR VSBYS IFR CIGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS AND CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE...WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE LATE
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/LATTO
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
942 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIAMI VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR WAYNE CO INDIANA...AND
PREBLE/DARKE OHIO WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITIES REMAINING. OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER THE INITIAL ADVISORY
PORTION THAT HAS BEEN CANCELLED HAVE THE MAJORITY OF OBS NOW
COMING IN AT 2 MILES OR BETTER. HOWEVER...WITH THE CLOUD DECK ONLY
A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET OFF THE SURFACE...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MIAMI VALLEY...JUST A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN ARRIVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING MID- LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...IT IS NOT APPARENT THAT CURRENT ECHOES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CWA ARE REACHING THE GROUND...SO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY
STILL BE A FEW HOURS OFF. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
FOR A WHILE...BEFORE RISING (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA)
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THE RAP WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THESE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...AS IT IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ILN CWA...EXCEEDING 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR JANUARY. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL COME ON
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA. WITH SOUNDINGS APPEARING MOIST ADIABATIC (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED)...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THERE APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF GENERALLY
JUST UNDER AN INCH...WHILE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN
AXIS OF OVER AN INCH THAT WORKS THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA. BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY ON THE HIGH-RES RUNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME LOCALIZED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY GET AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED
ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND MMEFS RUNS (USING NAEF/SREF/GEFS
INPUT)...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN TO LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. A FEW ACTION STAGE RIVER
READINGS...OR PERHAPS AN ADVISORY OR TWO...MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE BEING CONTINUED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
DISAPPEAR AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED...BUT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS (MIXING WITH SNOW LATE) APPEAR LIKELY.
THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME (UNDER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIXED LAYER WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...AND ABUNDANT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT ICE
CRYSTALS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FORM. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL
END UP BEING DRIZZLE (OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPS).
BY SUNDAY MORNING...RIDGING WILL BE ENTERING THE CWA...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY NOT ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR VERY QUICKLY...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA (WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING EARLIER IN THE SOUTH). WITH THE CWA RETURNING
TO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...TEMPS WILL RISE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN CROSS BACK UNDER THE FREEZING MARK
ON SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AS A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES UP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH READINGS BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL 30S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER COLD SURFACES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF IFR FOG AND CIGS ACROSS KDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THIS
AREA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE THE EVENING...BEFORE THIS BAND OF FOG
LIFTS NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEE
VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE RAIN BRINGS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO THOSE
LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
MVFR VSBYS IFR CIGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS AND CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE...WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE LATE
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ042-060.
KY...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...LATTO/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
704 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN PRODUCED TO ALLOW FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND
NORTHWARD...ENVELOPING LARGE ENOUGH SECTIONS OF SEVERAL COUNTIES
TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED EARLY...AS VISIBILITIES
ARE VERY GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE NEWEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT SURFACE SATURATION IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS FOG POTENTIAL. A
NARROW AXIS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL CWA (AROUND FRANKLIN COUNTY
INDIANA) THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CWA (DELAWARE COUNTY OHIO) CONTAINS
A FEW OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING QUARTER-MILE DENSE FOG. RH
PROJECTIONS AND SREF/HRRR/RAP VISIBILITY PRODUCTS ALL INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE LOWER
VISIBILITIES GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND WEST WITH TIME. FOR NOW
THIS THREAT WILL BE COVERED BY THE HWO AND A NEW SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...BUT IF THE DENSE AREA EXPANDS AT ALL...AN ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY. RIGHT NOW...THIS AREA IS FAIRLY NARROW AND NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A HEADLINE.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...IT IS NOT APPARENT THAT
CURRENT ECHOES IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA ARE REACHING THE GROUND...SO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY STILL BE A FEW HOURS OFF. MOST OF THE
IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED
IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
FOR A WHILE...BEFORE RISING (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA)
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THE RAP WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THESE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...AS IT IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ILN CWA...EXCEEDING 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR JANUARY. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL COME ON
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA. WITH SOUNDINGS APPEARING MOIST ADIABATIC (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED)...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THERE APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF GENERALLY
JUST UNDER AN INCH...WHILE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN
AXIS OF OVER AN INCH THAT WORKS THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA. BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY ON THE HIGH-RES RUNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME LOCALIZED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY GET AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED
ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND MMEFS RUNS (USING NAEF/SREF/GEFS
INPUT)...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN TO LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. A FEW ACTION STAGE RIVER
READINGS...OR PERHAPS AN ADVISORY OR TWO...MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE BEING CONTINUED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
DISAPPEAR AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED...BUT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS (MIXING WITH SNOW LATE) APPEAR LIKELY.
THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME (UNDER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIXED LAYER WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...AND ABUNDANT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT ICE
CRYSTALS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FORM. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL
END UP BEING DRIZZLE (OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPS).
BY SUNDAY MORNING...RIDGING WILL BE ENTERING THE CWA...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY NOT ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR VERY QUICKLY...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA (WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING EARLIER IN THE SOUTH). WITH THE CWA RETURNING
TO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...TEMPS WILL RISE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN CROSS BACK UNDER THE FREEZING MARK
ON SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AS A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES UP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH READINGS BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL 30S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER COLD SURFACES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
PERIODS OF IFR FOG AND CIGS ACROSS KDAY AND LOCATIONS NEAR THIS
AREA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE THE EVENING...BEFORE THIS BAND OF FOG
LIFTS NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE
A FEW HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS SEE
VFR CONDITIONS...BEFORE RAIN BRINGS LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO THOSE
LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS WITH
MVFR VSBYS IFR CIGS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP VSBYS AND CIGS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE...WHILE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE LATE
MORNING...CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT. THESE WINDS AND CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ026-034-
035-042>045-051>053-060-061.
KY...NONE.
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR INZ050-058-
059.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW THE
BEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WENT CLOSELY TO THE HRRR FOR
PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...SE
LIGHT RAIN...AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WENT NON DIURNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS EVENT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SHIELD OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWITCH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 30S IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING ACRS THE TAFS SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES IN RESPONSE
TO THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT. INITIALLY PRECIP EXPECTED TO START OUT
AS SNOW BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHD OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES THIS
EVENING DURG THE TRANSITION UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME SINCE IT SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN DURATION AND AMOUNT.
BEST LIFT TO OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. IFR VSBYS WILL BE LKLY WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
BEST LIFT SHIFTS EAST AROUND 06Z...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WL LKLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HAVE LIMITED IFR CIGS TO KDAY AND
KILN BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THIS CHANCE ACRS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH A GENERAL
LULL IN PRECIP BEING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1248 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD
FRONT WITH RAIN CROSSES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WORKING ON THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AND HAVE REVAMPED THE POP GRIDS
FOR TIMING USING THE SREF AND LOCAL HRRR AND WRF MODELS. STILL
WORKING ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AS OVER-RUNNING WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH EAST. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK PUSHING UP ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WV THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKS NORTH AND ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WAA ALOFT...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. HAVE BUMPED POPS AND EXTENDED MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS PAST
12 FRIDAY KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LITTLE TO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AS INHERITED FORECAST THAT STRADDLES THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST. DID SPEED UP FRONT ON SATURDAY
A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. A FEW SPITS OR SPATS OF -FRZ RA
POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH DEPARTING MID LEVEL SYS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH THOUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD ON FRIDAY NIGHT AMID STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT CROSSES 12-18Z ON SATURDAY. QPF AMOUNTS HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
HILLTOPS AND RIDGES. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH INTO MID TO UPPER
50S. DEEP MOISTURE QUICK PULLS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA BECOMING DRY SLOTTED UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT. KEPT POPS GOING FOR THIS REASON AND INSERTED SOME DZ
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE DRYING ALOFT AMID CLOUT TOPS/OMEGA
ONLY REACHING INTO -4 TO -6C RANGE. AS TEMPS COOL...ALLOWED FOR
SOME FRZ DZ ON THE RIDGES IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL
HAVE SOME SHRA/SHSN IN AS WELL BUT THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
MISTY/DZ SCENARIO. THE LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT ON
SUNDAY WITH WAA QUICKLY RETURNING. ANY DZ ENDS IN THE MORNING.
WENT A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY GIVING SOME NOD TO THE LOW
STRATUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BENEATH THE INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF CWA BY BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT. UPPER TROUGH PASSES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW AND MORE UPSLOPE TYPE
PRECIP SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH A 500MB TROUGH
LATE MONDAY PER GFS OR TUESDAY PER ECMWF. NOT ONLY TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING NORTH...WHILE ECMWF IS MORE
OF A SOUTHERN SOLUTION. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC FROM MONDAY ON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH A DRY DAY
MONDAY AND THEN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...IN GENERAL GOING A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL TRAVERSE
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT
ON MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MET GUIDANCE BRINGS THESE
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW 2KFT. WILL COMPLY WITH THIS DATA SET AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND KEEP CEILINGS BETWEEN 2KFT AND 3KFT
DURING THE PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB/CKB/EKN. SNOW IS ALSO BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
AT THE ONSET.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TURNING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH UNTIL 06Z. MEDIUM AFTER 06Z.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND ONSET OF PRECIP MAY VARY. PRECIP
TYPE MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW THE
BEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WENT CLOSELY TO THE HRRR FOR
PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...SE
LIGHT RAIN...AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WENT NON DIURNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS EVENT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SHIELD OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWITCH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 30S IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KDAY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MID TO HIGH DECK TO PERSIST. APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD DEVELOP OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. BUT BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME AFTER 00Z AREA WIDE AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD START AS SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM JUST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE
ENDING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING IN THE CINCINNATI
AREA. ONCE SNOW ENDS VISIBILITIES SHOULD COME UP TO MVFR BUT
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 2000 FT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW THE
BEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WENT CLOSELY TO THE HRRR FOR
PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...SE
LIGHT RAIN...AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WENT NON DIURNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS EVENT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SHIELD OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWITCH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 30S IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WITH MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING. A DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHT SNOW WHICH WOULD DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE CINCINNATI AREA LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT TEMPORARILY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL ALSO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY EAST/
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN EXPLICITLY IN
THE KOKC AND KOUN TAFS... BUT OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS WHERE CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT AS THE REDUCED
VSBY/CIGS IN THE FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES THROUGH 09/18Z.
ADJUSTED TEMPS...AND WX.
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. OVERALL... SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN
OBSERVED... BUT POCKETS OF DENSE FG/FZFG REMAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES... HOWEVER... MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SLOWLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. WITH AT/NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
NRN/NWRN OK... WHERE FREEZING FOG REMAINS A HAZARD. NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING... HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED PER OKDPS TRAFFIC MONITOR... BUT A FEW
SLICK SPOTS LIKELY REMAIN. THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON... AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TREND AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THIS
AFTN. THEREFORE... EXTENDED THE DENSE FG AND FZFG ADVISORIES
THROUGH 18Z.
TRENDED BACK HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING/AFTN... GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FORECAST WAS RUNNING A TAD WARM COMPARED TO OBS. STILL
EXPECT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIFR FOG AND CIGS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
VISBYS FIRST COMING UP AROUND 14-15Z AND THEN CIGS IMPROVING A BIT
AROUND 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER
00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND BRIEF LIFR WILL RETURN DUE TO LOW
CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
END OF...OR JUST OUTSIDE OF...THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY NEAR
OKC/OUN AND PERHAPS LAW/SPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL HEADLINES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE NW AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. SEVERAL SITES REPORTING DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW WEST OF
I35...ALONG WITH SOME EARLIER OHP REPORTS...SO FGYS IN GOOD SHAPE
TOO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST...VERY LITTLE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV OVER THE WA/OR
BORDER...NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...COMBINED LIFT FROM STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS SHOULD MOST
DEFINITELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MORE HEAVY DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND SE OK. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG SWSLY LLJ IS ANTICIPATED AND ASSOCIATED WAA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW SUPPORT MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE
SAME AREA. THEREFORE...ISO THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AND
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE/E OK WITHIN
BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD.
EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SW/W FLOW PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
AGAIN...ONLY EXPECT BRIEF MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS WITH THIS FRONT
WITH TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OUT WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 38 56 32 / 10 70 50 0
HOBART OK 41 36 56 29 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 42 62 32 / 10 50 50 0
GAGE OK 41 32 52 26 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 33 51 28 / 10 40 40 0
DURANT OK 43 42 62 37 / 20 90 90 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021-022-024.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ023-027-033>036.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES THROUGH 09/18Z.
ADJUSTED TEMPS...AND WX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. OVERALL... SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN
OBSERVED... BUT POCKETS OF DENSE FG/FZFG REMAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES... HOWEVER... MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SLOWLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. WITH AT/NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
NRN/NWRN OK... WHERE FREEZING FOG REMAINS A HAZARD. NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING... HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED PER OKDPS TRAFFIC MONITOR... BUT A FEW
SLICK SPOTS LIKELY REMAIN. THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON... AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TREND AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THIS
AFTN. THEREFORE... EXTENDED THE DENSE FG AND FZFG ADVISORIES
THROUGH 18Z.
TRENDED BACK HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING/AFTN... GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FORECAST WAS RUNNING A TAD WARM COMPARED TO OBS. STILL
EXPECT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIFR FOG AND CIGS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
VISBYS FIRST COMING UP AROUND 14-15Z AND THEN CIGS IMPROVING A BIT
AROUND 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER
00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND BRIEF LIFR WILL RETURN DUE TO LOW
CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
END OF...OR JUST OUTSIDE OF...THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY NEAR
OKC/OUN AND PERHAPS LAW/SPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL HEADLINES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE NW AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. SEVERAL SITES REPORTING DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW WEST OF
I35...ALONG WITH SOME EARLIER OHP REPORTS...SO FGYS IN GOOD SHAPE
TOO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST...VERY LITTLE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV OVER THE WA/OR
BORDER...NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...COMBINED LIFT FROM STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS SHOULD MOST
DEFINITELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MORE HEAVY DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND SE OK. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG SWSLY LLJ IS ANTICIPATED AND ASSOCIATED WAA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW SUPPORT MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE
SAME AREA. THEREFORE...ISO THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AND
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE/E OK WITHIN
BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD.
EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SW/W FLOW PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
AGAIN...ONLY EXPECT BRIEF MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS WITH THIS FRONT
WITH TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OUT WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 38 56 32 / 10 70 50 0
HOBART OK 41 36 56 29 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 42 62 32 / 10 50 50 0
GAGE OK 41 32 52 26 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 33 51 28 / 10 40 40 0
DURANT OK 43 42 62 37 / 20 90 90 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021-022-024.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ023-027-033>036.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1115 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT BR/FG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AND TO ADJUST SKY/HIGH TEMP GRIDS FOR TODAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
MOVE IN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD RESPOND NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
912 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AND TO ADJUST SKY/HIGH TEMP GRIDS FOR TODAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
MOVE IN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD RESPOND NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
726 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 28 51 24 58 / 0 10 5 0 0
BEAVER OK 43 25 47 25 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 26 49 22 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BORGER TX 49 30 53 27 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 29 52 23 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
CANYON TX 50 28 52 23 59 / 0 10 5 0 0
CLARENDON TX 48 31 56 26 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
DALHART TX 51 23 48 23 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 47 28 47 21 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 54 28 53 23 59 / 0 5 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 30 50 25 56 / 0 5 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 47 29 50 24 56 / 0 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 46 32 55 27 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 45 33 56 26 60 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 28 51 24 58 / 0 10 5 0 0
BEAVER OK 43 25 47 25 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 26 49 22 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BORGER TX 49 30 53 27 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 29 52 23 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
CANYON TX 50 28 52 23 59 / 0 10 5 0 0
CLARENDON TX 48 31 56 26 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
DALHART TX 51 23 48 23 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 47 28 47 21 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 54 28 53 23 59 / 0 5 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 30 50 25 56 / 0 5 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 47 29 50 24 56 / 0 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 46 32 55 27 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 45 33 56 26 60 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
SHERMAN...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 28 51 24 58 / 0 10 5 0 0
BEAVER OK 43 25 47 25 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 26 49 22 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BORGER TX 49 30 53 27 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 29 52 23 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
CANYON TX 50 28 52 23 59 / 0 10 5 0 0
CLARENDON TX 48 31 56 26 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
DALHART TX 51 23 48 23 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 47 28 47 21 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 54 28 53 23 59 / 0 5 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 30 50 25 56 / 0 5 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 47 29 50 24 56 / 0 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 46 32 55 27 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 45 33 56 26 60 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
SHERMAN...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS IMPACTING KCDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO LIFR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
COUPLED WITH DECREASING WINDS UNDERNEATH PRESSURE RISES.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS
FAR WEST AS KLBB...SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. BE CAUTIOUS OF ICING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FLOW WILL VEER NWRLY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS THIS EVENING
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AS ARCING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE...WHILE INDICATING OPEN ON OBJECTIVE AND MODEL
ANALYSIS...APPEARS TO BE WEAKLY CLOSED ON WV IMAGERY THUS
SUGGESTING THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WHILE THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
NOT OFFER ANY RAINFALL...IT LIKELY WILL HELP THE MOIST ADVECTION
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY EXTENDING TO SRN KS. THE RAP WOULD
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATTM THOUGH
ALL NWP SOLUTIONS INDICATE A WRAP-AROUND MORPHOLOGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE AND
AMALGAMATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
WOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS AFFECTING THE NWRN ZONES AS WELL. AN
ATTENDANT RISK OF PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY GRIMM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER HAVE NOT DIMINISHED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FA EXTENDING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MAXIMUM HEIGHT
FALLS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHARP TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
OVER THE AREA...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE EASTWARD POSITION
ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE TOO LATE TO INTERACT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS FAR WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY MORNING MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
WITHIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH STRONG
DOWNGLIDE ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS STILL MUCH SHARPER WITH THIS
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. ONE THING THESE MODELS DO AGREE
UPON ARE STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HIT THE GYM AND BECOME PUMPED UP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A
RETURN TO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR WEST TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 48 18 58 30 54 / 0 0 0 20 0
TULIA 44 20 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 40 10
PLAINVIEW 48 21 53 36 57 / 0 0 0 40 10
LEVELLAND 53 22 54 38 58 / 0 0 0 40 10
LUBBOCK 53 22 53 38 59 / 0 0 0 50 10
DENVER CITY 53 26 55 39 58 / 0 0 0 40 10
BROWNFIELD 54 24 55 39 58 / 0 0 0 40 10
CHILDRESS 44 24 48 37 56 / 0 0 0 60 40
SPUR 53 26 52 40 61 / 0 0 0 60 30
ASPERMONT 53 29 52 44 63 / 0 0 0 70 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
520 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DEALING WITH WINTRY MIX INTO
TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER...INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THESE
FEATURES WERE PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AT GROUND LEVEL. RADAR
SHOWING RETURNS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AREAS OF MAINLY DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED. SOME SLEET WAS ALSO SHOWING UP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI WHERE THERE WILL BE
LACK OF ICE ISSUES IN THE COLUMN AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. SO...A
MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WHERE THE SNOW FALLS...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A TOMAH/LA CROSSE/OELWEIN LINE...PERHAPS 1/2-1 INCH IS
POSSIBLE. OF NOTE IS THE RAP SHOWING LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6 AM
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LOOKING FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST BY NOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
PLAINS. AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING PUSHING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
MILDER PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. UNFORTUNATELY...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO/THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX WITH A TRICKY THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE. COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING RELATIVELY MILDER AIR
ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE TEENS/LOWER 20S. FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...BUT ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE HEADACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME EMBEDDED
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
AS WELL. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRY
CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW
PASSES THROUGH.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS ON TAP GOING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MODIFIED SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR IN THE AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD - PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS - RESULTING IN PERIODS OF -FZDZ IN ADDITION TO -SN. THIS
IS EVIDENCED VIA SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. MESO MODELS POINT TO
MOST OF THE PCPN EXITING EAST BY 06Z. SUB 1 KFT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
SAT MORNING. SHARP CUT OFF FROM CLOUD TO CLEAR EVIDENT IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SKIES COULD GO FROM OVC TO SCT/SKC IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS UNTIL LATER SAT AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING...AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME CLEARING COULD LEAD
TO HIGHER GUSTS SAT AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ010-011-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
411 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
EXIT SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE EVENING AS WELL...AND THE AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA AREA WILL DIMINISH. ORIGINALLY WE
WERE THINKING IT WOULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LOW LAYER AIR IS COOL ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ICE CRYSTALS AND THAT/S WHY
WE/RE SEEING SNOW.
THE ONLY FORCING LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...WHICH
NAM AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW...LESS
THAN 5000 FEET. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AND
THEN STAY STEADY OR GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MORNING...THEN EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
HELP TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE MORNING...THUS A
CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...WE WILL ALSO BE SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND
STRONG WARMING WILL BE OCCURRING AT 850-700MB. IT WILL BE A MATTER
OF WHEN THE WHOLE COLUMN CAN SATURATE BEFORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
CAN FULLY DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MIXED PCPN...MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND
OVERSPREAD THE CWA FRI AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES VIA THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET AS
WELL AS THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM SE IA TO ERN LOWER MI FROM THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z SAT AND DEEPEN FROM 997 MB TO 990 MB. SFC
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT HOWEVER A
FROZEN GROUND AND ROADS CAN STILL BECOME ICY. WENT WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK VERSUS SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS OVER
SE WI. THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OVER ALL OF
SRN WI INITIALLY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING OVER SE WI AND ONLY
RAIN EXPECTED. THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AROUND INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON WHERE COOLER TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHTER PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD.
BRISK WLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL ON SAT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A SFC RIDGE SAT NT. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A PROGRESSIVE JET STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND CHANCES OF MIXED PCPN
FOR MAINLY SUN NT.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NW FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LOWS AND CHANCES OF LGT
SNOW AFFECTING THE REGION FOR MON NT INTO TUE AND AGAIN ON THU.
TEMPS TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREA OF MVFR AND FUEL ALT TOWARD WEST
CENTRAL WI TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ONCE THOSE LOWER
CEILINGS MOVE IN...NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET OUT OF HERE OVERNIGHT
OR IF THEY WILL JUST HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WI EXPECTED TO EXIT BY LATE EVENING.
GLOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUESTIONABLE ABOUT DEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARMER...MOISTER AIR AS WELL.
RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KEEP AN EYE ON PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL FREEZE ONTO VARIOUS SURFACES. IT WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 22 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN.
HIGH RESOLUTION VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM WED REVEALS EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER COVERING MAJORITY OF NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE THE ICE TO BREAK UP A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ056-062-063-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ046-047-057.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1203 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS A BREAK TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BAND. NO
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SIGNALS WITH THIS INITIAL SHALLOW BAND.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH LATE EVENING. RAP SOUNDINGS FROM THIS
MORNING ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURATED COLUMN FROM SFC TO
10KFT OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. OBS
IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL ARE SHOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IL RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND WAA OVER
SOUTHERN WI TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN WI SHOULD
ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND MOVE OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AND
HANG THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BREAKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME -ZL OR LIGHT
SNOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMER...MOISTER AIR AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 4 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE BITTER COLD -5 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE. AS
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO AVOID A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS OF -20 OR
COLDER. HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVY...BUT WILL REISSUE SPS
FOR BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOCALIZED WIND CHILL VALUES THIS
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY TO ABOVE ZERO ONCE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ADVANCE INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH AREAS OF CLOUDS BEING
CAUSED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND SURGING WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO THE EAST AND NORTH. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
OMEGA WITH BOTH WEAK SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER AREA TO THE SOUTH HAS A BIT MORE LAYER
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LOWER LATE AFTERNOON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS. CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTN. MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS LATE
AFTN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ICE
CRYSTAL INITIATION IN CLOUD LAYER.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND WEAK OMEGA JUST TO THE
SOUTH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. HENCE WL REMOVE LOW
POPS AFTER THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THICKENING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER COLD SURFACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME PATCHY FOG...FLURRIES
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE EARLY FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE SATURATION MAY NOT BE DEEP/COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION. THUS WENT WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
SURFACE TEMPS AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW FARTHER NORTHWEST. HARD TO
NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURES...SO KEPT A GENERAL MIX.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL WEST TO EAST BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP LIKELY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT BY
THE TIME THE SOUTHEAST COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. COULD SEE A COUPLE
INCHES NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY IF LATEST ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ARE
RIGHT WITH DEFORMATION SNOW MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING. NOT VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OR THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SO CONFIDENCE STILL ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH THE SPECIFICS FOR NOW. WENT WITH CONSENSUS OF
SOLUTIONS...RESULTING IN TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW.
LOOKS DRIER AND COLDER WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING POSSIBLY
REACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER TODAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME -ZL. PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WARMER...MOISTER AIR AS WELL.
MARINE...LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH OF A PROLONGED PERIOD TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT AT
THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN.
HIGH RESOLUTION VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM WED REVEALS EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER COVERING MAJORITY OF NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE THE ICE TO BREAK UP A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHARLESTON SC
452 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. VISIBILITIES
HAVE INCREASED ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...
SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THOSE AREAS. AT
THE COAST...DENSE SEA FOG CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. VISIBILITIES
HAVE RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA
OVER THE PAST HOUR AND AREA WEBCAMS SUGGEST VISIBILITIES ARE NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES. OPTED TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
TIDAL BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR GOING
TRENDS. DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS ALL COASTAL ZONES...
INCLUDING INLAND CHATHAM AND THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA...FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY
A STRONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAKOUT
AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
/QLCS/...WILL REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY PROGS AND MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO 800-1000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING AS
LOW AS -4C. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...HEALTHY
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT INDUCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETTING
COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS WITHIN A TYPICAL MID-JANUARY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE DISCRETE CELLS OR
EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN BOWING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CAN
DEVELOP. RAP 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 300 M2/S2 AND
THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SHERBS3 TORNADO PARAMETER RISES ABOVE THE
BENCH MARK OF 1 UNIT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALL SUGGESTING THERE
IS A REASONABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FOR TODAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS PLACED WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO ATTRIBUTES IN ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS AND HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WINDOW OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE
BEACHES.
SUNDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...YET PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH QUICKLY TOWARD THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REMAINING
GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO
OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...YET STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT BRIEF DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
MONDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND TRAILING FRONT AS THEY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN GENERAL...A
SOLID TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TIME FRAME. WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EVEN AS
CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACTUALLY
APPEARS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PULLS THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A RESULT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
DRIVEN BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE DESCENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LACK
OF SOLID COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE EAST COAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED
IN THE MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST SEEN IN
DAYS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
DURATION AND TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. KSAV HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE BUT HAS BEEN JUMPING OVER THE PAST HOUR. SUSPECT THIS
IS TEMPORARY WITH OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH SHOWING STEADIER DENSE
FOG TRENDS. AT KCHS...CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT THINK THE FOG RISK MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER HERE
GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FORECAST.
STILL...DENSE SEA FOG IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND MAY EVENTUALLY ENVELOP KCHS PRIOR TO DAY BREAK.
WILL CALL FOR PREVAILING LIFR AT KSAV 09-13Z AND PREVAILING MVFR
WITH TEMPO LIFR AT KCHS TO TREND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A LINE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 20-23Z. WILL NOT INCLUDE
TSRA JUST YET...BUT WILL SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR VSBYS AND
CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. WESTERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL FORECAST
ZONES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
20-25 KT OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...RISING TO
4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
POP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE LINE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TONIGHT...THE SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WEST
WITH THE FRONT AND INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 20-25 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 25-30 KT OFFSHORE
WATERS. RIGHT NOW WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF STINT OF 35 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...EXCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE A DECAYING EFFECT OF SEAS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY ABOUT 1-2 FT...BUT SEAS OF
6-8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LONGER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE ABLE TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE MONDAY...LIKELY
PULLING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A MORE SOLID SURGE INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ117>119-
139-141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
358 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE SEA FOG
IMPACTS THE COASTAL AREAS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO IMPROVING
VISIBILITIES PRIOR TO SUNRISE. IN FACT...VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF I-16...WHICH MAY BE THE
BEGINNING OF A MORE SUSTAINED TREND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
VISIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
THAT PORTIONS OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY.
AT THE COAST...SEA FOG WILL NOT BE AS EASILY MOVED BY THE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND WE ARE MONITORING FOR A
POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO CHARLESTON
COUNTY WHERE COASTAL WEBCAMS SHOW VERY DENSE FOG...MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17.
A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY
A STRONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...
WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAKOUT
AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...POSSIBLY
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
/QLCS/...WILL REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY PROGS AND MODIFIED POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO 800-1000 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING AS
LOW AS -4C. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...HEALTHY
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT INDUCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETTING
COUPLED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS WITHIN A TYPICAL MID-JANUARY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WHERE DISCRETE CELLS OR
EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN BOWING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CAN
DEVELOP. RAP 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 300 M2/S2 AND
THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SHERBS3 TORNADO PARAMETER RISES ABOVE THE
BENCH MARK OF 1 UNIT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALL SUGGESTING THERE
IS A REASONABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.
FOR TODAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS PLACED WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO ATTRIBUTES IN ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS AND HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WINDOW OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE
BEACHES.
SUNDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...YET PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH QUICKLY TOWARD THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REMAINING
GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO
OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...YET STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT BRIEF DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
MONDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND TRAILING FRONT AS THEY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN GENERAL...A
SOLID TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TIME FRAME. WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EVEN AS
CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACTUALLY
APPEARS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PULLS THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A RESULT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
DRIVEN BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE DESCENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LACK
OF SOLID COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE EAST COAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED
IN THE MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST SEEN IN
DAYS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE
DURATION AND TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. KSAV HAS ALREADY DROPPED
TO 1/4 MILE BUT HAS BEEN JUMPING OVER THE PAST HOUR. SUSPECT THIS
IS TEMPORARY WITH OBSERVATIONS TO THE SOUTH SHOWING STEADIER DENSE
FOG TRENDS. AT KCHS...CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT THINK THE FOG RISK MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER HERE
GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FORECAST.
STILL...DENSE SEA FOG IS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND MAY EVENTUALLY ENVELOP KCHS PRIOR TO DAY BREAK.
WILL CALL FOR PREVAILING LIFR AT KSAV 09-13Z AND PREVAILING MVFR
WITH TEMPO LIFR AT KCHS TO TREND. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A LINE OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 20-23Z. WILL NOT INCLUDE
TSRA JUST YET...BUT WILL SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR VSBYS AND
CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. WESTERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THE RISK FOR DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING HOURS AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL FORECAST
ZONES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
20-25 KT OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...RISING TO
4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
POP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE LINE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TONIGHT...THE SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WEST
WITH THE FRONT AND INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 20-25 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 25-30 KT OFFSHORE
WATERS. RIGHT NOW WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF STINT OF 35 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...EXCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE A DECAYING EFFECT OF SEAS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY ABOUT 1-2 FT...BUT SEAS OF
6-8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LONGER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE ABLE TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE MONDAY...LIKELY
PULLING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A MORE SOLID SURGE INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-042-
043-047>049-051.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
242 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WEDGE/WARM FRONT
HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING. THERE WERE AREAS OF
DENSE FOG AND WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THE HRRR
MAINTAINS FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 1000 AM. THE FOG WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET AND LIFT WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET PLUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS TODAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE
CLOSE WITH GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 0.6 OF AN INCH...BUT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.6 OF AN INCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED
LI/S LOWERING TO -1 TO -2 THIS AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY IS
QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE IT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY FOG EARLY AND THEN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY DOES
DEVELOP THEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG
SHEAR. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE H85 WINDS NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE MAIN
THREAT IS DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BUT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE 03Z HRRR SHOWS THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE ABOUT TO ENTER THE WEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 100 PM. THIS MODEL ALSO SHOWS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS LINE
FARTHER SOUTH IN COASTAL GEORGIA WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE
TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z SPC WRF DISPLAYS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE
IN THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE 300 PM TO 700 PM TIME FRAME...BUT
THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
COAST BECOMES MORE DOMINATE.
WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY BECAUSE OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE
MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL INCONSISTENCY. EXPECT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING
THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS DOMINATING THROUGH 12/00Z THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH CALM
WINDS CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE LIFR RANGE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LIFR THROUGH 13Z WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND IMPROVE CIGS AND
VSBYS TO IFR RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE...HOWEVER TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE 16Z THROUGH 22Z. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL SITES BY 12/02Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH 13Z THEN INCREASE STEADILY TO SOUTHERLY AT 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...FINALLY VEERING TO WESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
111 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND A MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH. EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEDGE/WARM FRONT IN THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FOG.
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH THE
WARM MOIST AIR MASS RESULTING IN LI/S UP TO -3 AND A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET OF NEARLY 60 KTS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE IS FROM DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER STRONG SHEAR
MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SOME ROTATION EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE WILL BE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
BRINGING LIKELY POPS. GFS WITH MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PULLING TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. EXPECT A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY...WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS DOMINATING THROUGH 12/00Z THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER WITH CALM
WINDS CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE LOWERED INTO THE LIFR RANGE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN LIFR THROUGH 13Z WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS AND IMPROVE CIGS AND
VSBYS TO IFR RANGE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES DURING
THE MORNING ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE...HOWEVER TIMING CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE 16Z THROUGH 22Z. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
ALL SITES BY 12/02Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THROUGH 13Z THEN INCREASE STEADILY TO SOUTHERLY AT 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS...FINALLY VEERING TO WESTERLY AT 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 18 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1220 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE
MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOISTURE HAS BECOME MORE SHALLOW BEHIND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THROUGH. EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEDGE/WARM FRONT IN THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FOG.
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND THE HRRR SUPPORT DENSE FOG. WE HAVE ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH THE
WARM MOIST AIR MASS RESULTING IN LI/S UP TO -3 AND A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET OF NEARLY 60 KTS. SPC HAS THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE IS FROM DAMAGING WINDS IN THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER STRONG SHEAR
MAY ALSO INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SOME ROTATION EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. POPS WILL DECREASE
RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WILL BE ON TAP
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS DISPLAY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM
BRINGING LIKELY POPS. GFS WITH MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM PULLING TO THE
NORTH TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. EXPECT A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY...WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL READINGS BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS DOMINATING THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE SHOWS MOST OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. WINDS WILL ROTATE FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. HIGHER WIND GUSTS MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE PARTICULARLY
IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
RESTRICTIONS IMPROVING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
063>065-077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
QUITE A FEW SITES NOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE ON VISIBILITIES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LOW VISIBILITIES BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS AHEAD OF PASSING SURFACE
LOW. AS RESULT... HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT... SAY AROUND 09Z OR SO
WE MAY START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON VISIBILITIES AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE POOR VISIBILITIES IN DENSE FOG COUPLED WITH ICY ROADWAYS
ESPECIALLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-80 MAKING IT ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS BEST
SUITED FOR NOT TRAVELING UNLESS NECESSARY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 444 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
EXPANDED ADVISORY TO INCLUDE JACKSON COUNTY IN IOWA AND JO DAVIESS
AND STEPHENSON COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. REPORTS OF
SEVERAL ROADS COMPLETELY COVERED IN JACKSON COUNTY... IA38...IA136
IA64. PAVEMENT TEMPS HOVERING AROUND FREEZING IN THESE AREAS
ALLOWING FOR THE ICY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AS TEMPS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW.
HOWEVER....ONCE THIS PASSES AND WINDS SHIFT TO WEST WILL SEE TEMPS
DROP LATE THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT AND MAY SEE MORE ICING WHETHER
THROUGH REFREEZE OR POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 336 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
CALLS ARE NOW COMING IN REPORTING SLICK ROADS. THUS WILL HOIST A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPORAL
AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO CHANGED THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A LLJ RUNNING FROM TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WAS IMPINGING UPON AN 850 MB WARM
FRONT RUNNING FROM KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HAD A LARGE AREA OF RAIN FROM MISSOURI INTO
ILLINOIS WITH LIGHTER RAIN/DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS IOWA.
18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW NEAR KMHK WITH A WARM FRONT EAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE COLD FRONT RAN FROM THE LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WITH 40S AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
BASED ON TRENDS FROM PRESSURE FALLS AND THE RAP MODEL...THE LOW
SHOULD PASS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST AREA BETWEEN KALO AND KCID THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. RIGHT NOW NO ADVISORY FOR DENSE
FOG IS PLANNED. HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONE IS NEEDED
AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT BUDGED MUCH IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR FROM
KDBQ ON WEST. THUS THIS AREA IS RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SEEING FREEZING
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LIFT CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOUT ANOTHER DEGREE. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY SPOTTY
OVER THE FOUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY WESTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY
THROUGH MID EVENING.
ONCE THE LOW PASSES...COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA ALLOWING THE RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. DURING THE CHANGE OVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO UNDER
AN INCH.
ON SATURDAY...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SEE OVER ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST/EAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE A DUSTING AT BEST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND THEN THE PATTERN CHANGES TO A RIDGE DOMINATED WESTERN U.S.
AND A MEAN TROF SETTING UP OVER THE EAST.
MILD CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION SUNDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF A TROF DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE CROSSES THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY WITH H8
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD
MIXING IS ALSO SUGGESTED WITH A TIGHT SLP GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EVEN WITH THE SNOW COVER...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. MODELS MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
WITH OUT ANY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH
THE BETTER MOISTURE GETTING PUSHED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN MONDAY WITH THE LESS PHASED ECM SOLUTION
LIFTING A PIECE OF THE UPPER TROF OUT OF TEXAS...SENDING A SURFACE
LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMS PRECIP SHIELD WITH
THIS FEATURE JUST MISSES THE SOUTHEAST CWFA MONDAY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON A WEAK S/W RACING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
AND MN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE LATEST RUNS MOVING IT/S WEAK
SURFACE LOW THROUGH IA AND FAVOR THE NORTHEAST CWFA FOR SOME LOW
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW. JUST A QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ANOTHER S/W MOVING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WILL SEND A SURFACE LOW EAST ALONG THE U.S. CANADIAN
BORDER...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DRY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BLOCKING ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. BUT THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DRAGGING DOWN ANOTHER CHUNK
OF ARCTIC AIR WITH BOTH THE ECM AND GFS BRINGING H8 TEMPS AS COLD AS
-22C OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TREND FROM LIFR/VLIFR TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AM. MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN DECREASING
CLOUDS BY MID SATURDAY AM THROUGH MIDDAY... BUT THEN MORE LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS ARE SHOWN BY SEVERAL MODELS TO PROPAGATE
BACK DOWN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTN
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ALL AREAS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND RETURN TO VFR BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-JO
DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE FZDZ MIGHT BE ABOUT ALL THE MPX AREA SEES
FROM THE UPPER WAVES WORKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS NOW. THE
PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE A DELAYED PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE CURRENTLY HEADING FOR NW MN AND A SRN STREAM WAVE THAT IS
MOVING UP OUT OF IA TOWARD WI. THESE TWO SYSTEMS DO NOT REALLY
LOOK TO BECOME ONE UNTIL SAT MORNING OVER MICH. THE RUB THERE IS
THAT THE SRN STREAM WAVE IS THE ONE WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION AND WITH THESE SYSTEMS NOT PHASING UNTIL
SATURDAY...WE ARE SEEING THE PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH FASTER
AND FARTHER EAST TODAY/TONIGHT. RUNS OF THE HOPWRF TODAY HAVE BEEN
PROGRESSIVELY INCHING A DEFORMATION BAND EAST WITH TIME AND WITH
THE 15Z RUN ALL 4 MEMBERS ARE NOW SHOWING A BAND OF ENHANCED
PRECIP FALLING FROM ABOUT DECORAH...IA UP TOWARD WAUSAU...EAST OF
THE MPX CWA. ON RADAR...THERE IS A CLUSTER OF HIGHER RETURNS THAT
MATCHES UP WELL WITH THESE PRECIPITATION SWATHS AND WITH THE HRRR
PICKING UP ON THIS SCENARIO NOW AS WELL...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A DUD IN THE SNOWFALL
DEPARTMENT FOR THE MPX AREA.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...STILL ANTICIPATE SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SFC TROUGH THAT
IS STILL HANGING OUT ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER SLIDES EAST THIS
EVENING...MEETING UP WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH INTO
WI. HAVE FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS
WHICH SHOW JUST LIGHT QPF/SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER
ERN MN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING EAST.
SAID SFC TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE MPX AREA AROUND 9Z...WITH ANY SNOW
LIKELY CUTTING OFF AFTER THAT. BASICALLY...THERE MIGHT BE ONE OR
TWO LUCKY FOLKS OUT THERE THAT PICK UP A HALF INCH OF SNOW OUT OF
THIS...OTHERWISE IT IS JUST A SEA OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE UNTIL THE
SFC TROUGH CLEARS AND WINDS BECOME WNW.
AS FOR TONIGHT...FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE RAP AND NAM OF SKIES
SCATTERING OUT AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
BECOME MORE WRLY...MUCH LIKE WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN TODAY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THINKING WE WOULD SEE SOME CLEARING...DID FOLLOW THE IDEA
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS OF KNOCKING LOWS BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF TWIN CITIES.
NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SATURDAY...OTHER CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO NRN NODAK SWEEP THROUGH HERE DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS STILL LOOKING TO NESTLE UP INTO THE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGE. SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO EXISTING
FORECAST...MAINLY JUST BLENDING IN LATEST BIAS CORRECTED MODEL
DATA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
LONGER TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RATHER PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. COOLING TREND
APPEARS TO TAKE HOLD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER AREA OF COLD
AIR DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE AMPLIFYING HUDSON BAY VORTEX.
A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION MAY STILL OCCUR UNDER STRONG WAA
PATTERN UNDER STRONG 130KT H25 JET SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARMING ALOFT INDICATES FAVORABLE THICKNESS FOR POSSIBLE LIGHT
ZR-/ZL- INTO THE DAY AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
LOWER 30S DURING TH DAY. WHATEVER IS LEFT INTO THE
EVENING/SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BUT ONLY LIGHT
QPF AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED.
DETERMINISTIC EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY...
AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. TIMING IS IN QUESTION...WITH THE 12Z GFS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE 12Z EC. WONT GET TOO CUTE ON TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
NOW...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS AS
IT PASSES THROUGH.
BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT SURGE OF PACIFIC AIR FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE
THE NEXT MAIN SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHEAST. AT THE MOMENT...IT DOESNT APPEAR TO BE AS COLD AS THE
LAST WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS AS IT DIVES
SOUTHEAST AND THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
SEVERAL COMPLICATING ISSUES ACRS THE COVERAGE AREA AFFECTING THE
TAFS TONIGHT. IN WRN MN...FOG. IN CENTRAL-ERN MN...FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. IN WRN WI...LOW CEILINGS AND LEFTOVER -FZDZ/-SN.
OVERALL...IFR-OR-WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY WELL BE
FLUCTUATING SO AMENDMENTS MAY WELL BE FAIRLY FREQUENT TO UPDATE
THE FIRST 6 HRS. BY DAYBREAK...PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD NO LONGER BE
ISSUES BUT SOME MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN...ESP IN WRN WI. OVER
MN...THE SHIFT TO WLY WINDS WILL AID IN BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR
TO HELP SCOUR OUT THE LLVL MOISTURE. VFR CONDS THRU LATE MRNG THEN
ANOTHER SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPR TROF WILL
MOVE THRU. CLOUDS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LOW-END VFR...POSSIBLY MVFR.
BY LATE DAY...VFR CONDS PREVAIL WHILE WINDS BACK TO SSE AND
DIMINISH IN SPEED.
KMSP...IFR CONDS TO START WITH STILL SOME OCNL BOUTS OF -FZDZ FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN CONDS IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VFR FOR MIDDAY...THEN ADDITIONAL CEILINGS
RETURN MID-TO-LATE DAY. AM NOT THINKING THESE WILL BE MVFR BUT
THAT POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER THE SWATH OF
MIDLVL CEILINGS EXIT BY LATE AFTN...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TMRW NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO WLY...WHICH WILL AID IN CLEARING OUT
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TNGT...THEN REMAIN WLY THRU THE DAY BEFORE
BACKING SAT EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN OVERNIGHT. WINDS W-SW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1152 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
.UPDATE:
Issued at 945 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
The new swath of rain with the warm conveyor was centered from
just west of Litchfield through the St. Louis metro into southeast
MO. It is moving rather quickly to the northeast and should exit
much if not all of MO before midnight as the progressive upstream
trof continues to advance east and dry air moves in aloft.
Adjustments this evening were just temporal trends with the rain
and temperatures. During the overnight period and more
specifically after 09z I increased the pops through central and
northeast MO. There is a growing area of rain and snow across
eastern KS due to what appears to be a mid-upper level deformation
zone. The RAP and HRRR rotate this precipitation into the
aforementioned area after 09z and weaken it by 12z. My pops while
higher than the previous forecast may not be high enough if it
maintains more identity.
Glass
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 1217 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Focus will be precip tonight, but in two areas. First, the ongoing
RA that will be moving out of the region late tonight. The second,
is precip associated with the upper trof currently over the
Plains.
Believe ongoing precip will be confined to the ern half of the CWA
at the beginning of the period. Precip shud continue pushing
quickly ewd and only be in the far ern counties by Midnight. Not
much change in the way of QPF thru tonight.
The other area of precip may be across nrn portions of the CWA
late tonight as the upper trof moves thru. Mdls are in fairly good
agreement with timing/placement of this feature. However, mdls
suggest a lack of available moisture will prevent any precip by
the time the trof reaches the CWA. POPs or mention of flurries may
need to be added to these areas late tonight.
As for temps, expect temps to remain steady or even rise ahead of
the cdfnt as it moves thru the area. Resultant temps are around
the warmer guidance as airmass behind the fnt is not that cold
based on upstream obs.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
(Saturday through Monday)
After further critique of the latest guidance for Sat, have
decided to add slight chance for SN continuing into the early
morning hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty if enuf
moisture will remain to produce SN, but believe it is worthy of
slight chances. If the SN does occur, with the relatively warm
bndy temps, do not anticipate much in the way of accumulations.
Next system reaches the region on Sun night into Mon as another
deep trof approaches the region. For now, have kept POPs in the
low chance range due to a fair amount of uncertainty among
guidance regarding strength and placement of the trof and sfc
reflection.
Continued trend twd warm temps with upper ridging moving into the
region.
(Tuesday through Friday)
Period begins with a focus on precip chances on Tues as a clipper
approaches the area. Each mdl has a different soln with vast
differences between them. Given the system is a clipper, will
likely have low confidence in any given soln until much closer to
Tues. For now, will just add slight chances for SN and refine the
fcst as time approaches.
As for temps, have tried to trend twd a compromise of guidance.
Have low confidence in any single soln as area remains under
meridional flow, producing warming and cooling periods.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Satellite imagery and upstream surface obs suggest that cigs will
remain IFR to MVFR overnight before improving to VFR during the
morning due to the arrival of drier air and the onset of mixing.
The cold front which has already moved through KCOU/KUIN will
reach KSUS/KCPS within a few hours. Winds will turn westerly
behind the front and remain westerly for most of the TAF period.
Decreasing winds near an approaching surface high, very moist
grounds, and radiational cooling will probably cause fog and/or
stratus to redevelop on Saturday night.
A period of rain or snow is possible at KCOU this morning between
09-12z, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF. Later
shifts will need to monitor upstream trends across KS and western
MO.
Specifics for KSTL: Satellite imagery and upstream surface obs
suggest that currently variable cigs will settle to MVFR overnight
before improving to VFR during the morning due to the arrival of
drier air and the onset of mixing. Winds will turn westerly behind
a cold front within a few hours and then remain westerly for most
of the TAF period. Decreasing winds near an approaching surface
high, very moist grounds, and radiational cooling will probably
cause fog and/or stratus to redevelop on Saturday night.
Kanofsky
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
305 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE...THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL LINGERING IN THE
UPPER 30S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD...TO THE MID 60S TOWARD KCTZ. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT KRDU WAS IN THE MID 40S WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE AT THE NWS OFFICE TO THE EAST ACROSS TOWN WAS NEAR 60.
THE WEDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT COULD BE A SLOW PROCESS...AND WILL STAY ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGH TODAY IN THE TRIAD. FROM U.S. 1
EAST...ANTICIPATE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE TO VALUE NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S...WARMEST FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
NOTE RECORD HIGHS AT KRDU OF 75 AND KFAY OF 79 BOTH SET IN 1930. NOT
GOING THAT WARM...AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LEVEL OF
WARMTH CURRENTLY.
THE WARMTH...THOUGH...WILL HELP IN DEVELOPING SOME INSTABILITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN
THE RAP...WITH THE FORMER SUGGESTING LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO -2C
TO -4C ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 BY THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
700J/KG OF CAPE IN THE LOWEST KM AS A STRONG 700MB SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA...AHEAD OF A 110KT 500MB JET AND WINDS OF AT LEAST
65KT AT 850MB. THE RAP ONLY FORECASTS ABOUT 200J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED
CAPE...BUT EVEN WITH THE CAPE FORECAST OF THE RAP...AND THE LIMITED
MIXING ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD EXIST ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND 60KT OF 0-3KM
SHEAR THAT A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER...MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO NOTE A SLIGHT RISK FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE
HWO. AS DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN
THE 0-3KM HELICITY FORECAST BY THE GFS BETWEEN 100 AND 300M2/S2...
WITH SIMILAR VALUES FORECAST BY THE LATEST RAP.
IN TERMS OF OTHER ITEMS TO CONSIDER...MANY AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BUT VISIBILITIES WERE PRIMARILY ABOVE
A HALF-MILE. A FEW POCKETS OF VISIBILITY FROM A HALF-MILE OR LESS.
FOR NOW AM NOT PLANNING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. IN ADDITION...AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE WITH
MIXING GRADIENT WIND GUSTS TO 35MPH.
TONIGHT...MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FAIRLY SUBSIDENT BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS...AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY TONIGHT...
DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A
QUARTER-INCH BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND EXPECT A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT MODELS ARE STRONGLY DRY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID
40S TOWARD KCTZ...AROUND 40 IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALLING BELOW A QUARTER-INCH SUNDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WITH MIXING...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE MID 50 TO AROUND 60.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST WHICH COULD ALLOW
A RETURN OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THE RELATIVELY
STRONGER 300MB WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THOUGH...SO ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY THIN BROKEN AT TIMES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S...COOLEST AND CLOSE TO FREEZING IN SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. -DJF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH PRECEDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT YIELDING CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE BY SOME 8-12
DEGREES...IN RETURN SSW FLOW AROUND PROGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD - SIMILAR TO
THOSE EVIDENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS - CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME. THAT IS...THE ECMWF AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION...WITH
MORE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW FOR MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER INLAND THAN A MORE
SUPPRESSED/OFFSHORE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. WILL FOLLOW
PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUED WPC PREFERENCE TOWARD THE
WETTER-FOR CENTRAL-NC ECMWF SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...CARRY A HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITY OF RAIN MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. CONTINUED
RELATIVELY MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM...WITH
THE ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CLIPPER SURFACER LOW FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST CENTERED AROUND WED. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS
AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SHEAR VORTICITY SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS...IN
A REGION OUTSIDE OF THE DOMAIN OF THE EC AND GFS MODEL DATA
AVAILABLE TO RAH...IT IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A PREFERENCE TOWARD ONE
CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE OTHER. BOTH CLUSTERS OF SOLUTIONS ARE
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AT OUR LATITUDE -
NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE PRIMARY VORT AND CLIPPER SFC LOW PASS TO
OUR NORTH - SO WE WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN THE FLAVOR OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CENTERED ON THE DAY WED. THERMAL PROFILES INDEED APPEAR QUITE
COLD...PARTICULARLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER (IN THE H85-7
LAYER)..CHARACTERISTIC OF STEEP LAPSE RATE ALOFT/MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEMS. THE NON-SPECIFIC MENTION OF "RAIN OR SNOW" WILL SUFFICE
UNTIL A CLEARER MODEL PREFERENCE AND/OR CONSENSUS BECOMES APPARENT.
CLEARING IN BRIEF MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU...IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT AND
APPROACHING MOISTURE-STARVED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IN CONTINUED
STRONGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FOR A
PERIOD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A MORE SHOWERY CHARACTER. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR REMAINS A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL BASED ON THE CRITERIA
DUE TO THE GRADUAL VEERING AND INCREASE OF THE WIND SPEED WITH
HEIGHT ALOFT. STILL...CONTINUING THE MENTION OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE TRIAD THROUGH THE
TRIANGLE...DEEPER INTO THE WEDGED AIR MASS. DURING SATURDAY...A
VIGOROUS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIKELY BAND OF
SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE BAND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD...BUT
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO THE EAST...AND IT IS NOTED IN THE FORECASTS
FOR KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI WEST GUSTS TO 40KT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN IT IS EXPECTED A STRONGLY-FORCED LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. RAPID DRYING TAKES PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR WEST-TO-EAST
ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE WEST WIND THAT REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH MIXING
SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
332 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
USED A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM FROM
THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BEGIN WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS EVERYWHERE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RADAR SHOWING WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR
HINTED AT WITH THE FIRST SURGE HAVING EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE SECOND SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING IN. AND YET ANOTHER WAVE NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. EVENTUALLY THIS MAY ALL BLEND TOGETHER EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF
THE CWA...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AROUND/AFTER DAWN. BY 15Z BROUGHT POPS TO CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SURFACE TROF/SHORT WAVE ALOFT ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AGAIN USED MAINLY NAM TIMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BLENDING INTO
THE GFS TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ALSO
EXTEND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL BEGIN WITH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS AT
12Z HOWEVER IN THE WEST WILL DROP CLOUDS TO PC IN THE MORNING. FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE CLOUDS IN THE EAST AS WELL. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL COME MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY BY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MERGES
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS DOESNT SHOW THIS
AS AGGRESSIVELY HOWEVER SO WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON DID BACK OFF LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE NUMBERS.
AFTER A 6 TO 12 HOURS BREAK MODELS BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER AT 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AND
SURFACE LOW SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BROUGHT SNOW IN CLOUDS BUT
ESSENTIALLY BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY
CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY MILD TEMPS...COOLING OFF MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE PATH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA STAYING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY. RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TO START. THE WARM FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DOES NOT HAVE A BIG PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH IT AND WILL
MODERATE TEMPS ONLY TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL HAVE RETURNED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS PRETTY POOR DUE TO THE RAPID UP AND
DOWN SWINGS OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS AREA. THIS IS
ALL THANKS TO A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DOWN SLOPE
FLOW IS TAKING PLACE AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS
OVER THE EAST ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
HELPING TO SUPPRESS RAINFALL.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND
WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM WEST
TO EAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME CLEARING AT VERY END OF THE PERIOD FOR
FINDLAY. LEFT MENTION OF SNOW OUT FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED CHANCES
THAT IT WILL OCCUR.
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SNOWBELT. SOME NON VFR MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY AID IN ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND YIELD
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WILL
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SHIFTING/RIDGING/RAFTING OF
ICE ON THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TAKES
A PATH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY GO NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
ON SUNDAY...WITH RIDGING BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIAMI VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL INDIANA HAVE SEEN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE COUPLE HOURS. THEREFORE...THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN MIAMI
VALLEY...JUST A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN
ARRIVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION > INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING MID- LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...IT IS NOT APPARENT THAT CURRENT ECHOES IN THE SOUTHWEST
CWA ARE REACHING THE GROUND...SO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY
STILL BE A FEW HOURS OFF. MOST OF THE IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE COVERED IN THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY
FOR A WHILE...BEFORE RISING (ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA)
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THE RAP WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THESE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...AS IT IS HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION
WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE WITHIN A REGIME
OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTING A VERY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE
REGION. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE WELL OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE ILN CWA...EXCEEDING 300 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR JANUARY. THE STRONGEST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL COME ON
THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ILN
CWA. WITH SOUNDINGS APPEARING MOIST ADIABATIC (AS WOULD BE
EXPECTED)...INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. THERE APPEARS TO
BE JUST ENOUGH CONDITIONAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...AND AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE A LITTLE BIT CONVECTIVE IN NATURE.
THE LARGER-SCALE MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF GENERALLY
JUST UNDER AN INCH...WHILE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW AN
AXIS OF OVER AN INCH THAT WORKS THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE ILN CWA. BASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY ON THE HIGH-RES RUNS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...SOME LOCALIZED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MAY GET AS HIGH AS AN INCH AND A HALF. BASED
ON FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND MMEFS RUNS (USING NAEF/SREF/GEFS
INPUT)...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN TO LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. A FEW ACTION STAGE RIVER
READINGS...OR PERHAPS AN ADVISORY OR TWO...MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE BEING CONTINUED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
DISAPPEAR AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED...BUT POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
AS ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS (MIXING WITH SNOW LATE) APPEAR LIKELY.
THIS POST-FRONTAL REGIME (UNDER THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A MIXED LAYER WITH WEAK AND SHALLOW
INSTABILITY...AND ABUNDANT LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE. EVENTUALLY...AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...MOISTURE BECOMES SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT ICE
CRYSTALS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO FORM. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL
END UP BEING DRIZZLE (OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE BASED ON SURFACE
TEMPS).
BY SUNDAY MORNING...RIDGING WILL BE ENTERING THE CWA...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY NOT ALLOW CLOUDS TO SCOUR VERY QUICKLY...BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE CWA (WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING EARLIER IN THE SOUTH). WITH THE CWA RETURNING
TO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...TEMPS WILL RISE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN CROSS BACK UNDER THE FREEZING MARK
ON SUNDAY NIGHT / EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY MONDAY AS A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE MOVES UP A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR TUESDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ON WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW. A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THURSDAY WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND
COLD ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL START ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S. COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH READINGS BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WHILE THE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SOME WARM ADVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL 30S FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT KDAY OUT OF THE THUNDER ATTM AS THE
NARROW AREA OF LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO
COINCIDE STRONGLY WITH THE MODEL TAKE OF 1000-850MB STRONGEST
THETA E ADVECTION WHICH WILL REMAIN ALONG AND E OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. SUSTAINED 14-17KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 AND 30KT
OUT OF THE WEST WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS TIME THROUGH ABOUT 0-1Z.
LOW MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT WHEN THE
GRADIENT RELAXES SOME.
THE H5 TROUGH IS CROSSING THE REGION 3-6Z TOMORROW NIGHT AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AT LEAST LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/LATTO
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...FRANKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1105 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DEALING WITH WINTRY MIX INTO
TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CONUS AT THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER...INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS. THESE
FEATURES WERE PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE AREA FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AT GROUND LEVEL. RADAR
SHOWING RETURNS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH AREAS OF MAINLY DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED. SOME SLEET WAS ALSO SHOWING UP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST IA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI.
LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WI WHERE THERE WILL BE
LACK OF ICE ISSUES IN THE COLUMN AND WARMER AIR ALOFT. SO...A
MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. WHERE THE SNOW FALLS...GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A TOMAH/LA CROSSE/OELWEIN LINE...PERHAPS 1/2-1 INCH IS
POSSIBLE. OF NOTE IS THE RAP SHOWING LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT...HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6 AM
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 20S.
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT LOOKING FOR ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO SHIFT OFF
TO THE EAST BY NOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
PLAINS. AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING PUSHING EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT PUSHING EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
MILDER PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S. UNFORTUNATELY...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH INTO/THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX WITH A TRICKY THERMAL
PROFILE IN PLACE. COLDER AIR UNDERCUTTING RELATIVELY MILDER AIR
ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE TEENS/LOWER 20S. FORTUNATELY...
PRECIPITATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT...BUT ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION COULD
CAUSE HEADACHES. WILL CONTINUE TO TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A DEEP
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SOME EMBEDDED
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL GIVE THE AREA A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
AS WELL. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 20S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW LOOKS TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OF FLURRY
CHANCES WILL BE SEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW
PASSES THROUGH.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS ON TAP GOING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MODIFIED SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
THE -SN/-FZDZ CONTINUED TO SHIFT EAST LATE THIS EVENING...AND WILL
LIKELY BE EAST OF KRST AROUND 06Z. TRENDS SUGGEST CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
KLSE. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY AS THEY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR. SOME SUB 500 FT WOULD ALSO SEEM LIKELY AT KRST.
MEANWHILE...LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLEARING
WEDGE BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD REACH KRST BY 12Z.
MORE CLOUDS FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MN...ROTATING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST POST
A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. RAP/NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUDS
WOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING...EXITING BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. GOING TO TRY AND TIME A TEMPO GROUP FOR WHEN A
BREAK IN THE CIGS IS MORE LIKELY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS SHAKY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SAT...AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IF THE ANTICIPATED CLEARING OCCURS.
ANTICIPATING VFR CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ010-011-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
335 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:06 AM PST SATURDAY...A 975 MB LOW IS
DEEPENING WEST OF SEATTLE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE
INLAND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW AND
WILL MOVE INTO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. LIGHT RAIN WAS
REPORTED THE LAST FEW HOURS IN CRESCENT CITY AND ALL EYES WILL BE
ON THIS PRECIP AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS THE NORTH BAY BY
LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD
WITH THE NAM/GFS AND EVEN THE RAP/HRRR SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOWING
LIGHT RAINFALL BETWEEN 18-00Z THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS SONOMA COUNTY BUT CANT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FROM THE GOLDEN GATE DOWN TO THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO COLD ADVECTION OR JET
DYNAMICS THIS FAR SOUTH AND EXPECT NO PRECIP FOR THE SANTA CLARA
VALLEY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH SUCH A WEAK BOUNDARY. IN A NORMAL
YEAR RAINFALL LIKE THIS WOULD HARDLY BE WORTH MENTIONING AS NORMAL
RAINFALL PER DAY THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ALMOST 0.25 PER DAY IN THE
NORTH BAY. PERHAPS VENADO WILL SEE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH BUT
ONLY EXPECT A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR MOST REPORTING LOCATIONS FROM THE
GOLDEN GATE NORTH WITH TRACE AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE CITY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END BY THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALLOWING SOME FOG TO FORM
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SUNDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
UNSEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS MONDAY AND CONTINUES
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH 16
CELSIUS BY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD REPRESENT THE 99TH
PERCENTILE EVER RECORDED AT THE OAKLAND UPPER AIR SITE SHOULD IT
VERIFY WITH DATA GOING BACK TO 1948. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HILLS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. STILL DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET.
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY SUSTAINED BUT LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER ALMOST ALL OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMING VERY DRY. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDS WITH TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST
DAY AT THIS TIME WITH LOCAL DOWN-SLOPE WARMING BEING MAXIMIZED.
IRONICALLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT MAY END UP BEING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER BELOW FOR MORE ON THAT.
THE RIDGE WILL STAY IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS LOOK TO TURN ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS HINT
AT A FRONT BUMPING INTO THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND BUT ALSO SHOW
ANY PRECIP FALLING APART BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE.
AT THIS POINT WERE WATCHING THE EXTENDED 2 WEEK FORECAST FOR ANY
HOPE OF A PATTERN CHANGE. THE 240 HOUR FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF SHOWS
A STRONG 180 KT JET ACROSS THE PACIFIC WHILE THE 12-16 DAY GFS RUNS
SHOW SOME ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE RIDGE. ITS GETTING HARD BUT
WILL HAVE TO STAY PATIENT AND SEE IF THE PATTERN BREAKS AT ALL
AFTER MLK WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AND
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS A MIX OF CLOUDS COVER THE REGION WITH A
FORECASTED FROPA LATER TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SPEAKING OF HIGH CLOUDS
THEY ARE MAKING IT DIFF TO SEE ANY STRATUS OR FOG ON THE
SATELLITE. KSTS IS STILL REPORTING FOG. WILL KEEP FOG AT KSTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR SF BAY...DELAYED ANY CIGS/STRATUS
UNTIL ALMOST 15Z. NOT EVEN THAT CONF STRATUS WILL ACTUALLY
DEVELOP. A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH 18-20Z WITH POSS -RA FOR KSTS
AND VCSH AROUND SF BAY AND NO RAIN MENTION S OF SF BAY. CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSS PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TO START THEN DEV CIGS AROUND 15Z...PT
SOUNDS AND HRRR MODEL REALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. POSS CIGS AND
VCSH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW CONF.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY FOG LINGERS...BUT NONE BEING
REPORTED AT KSNS/KMRY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS. POSS CIGS LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. MEDIUM CONF.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO GENERATE BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY.NW SWELL 14
TO 18 FEET TONIGHT/SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF 15-16 SECONDS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO LARGER SURF ALONG THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE PERIOD
AND SWELL HEIGHT SQUARED SEAS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. SWELLS QUICKLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 3:06 AM SATURDAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY IN THE
NORTH BAY BUT IN GENERAL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
(GREATER THAN A TENTH). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVENT
LOOKS MODERATE IN STRENGTH WITH 925 MB WINDS IN THE 15-30 KT
RANGE. RH VALUES WILL INITIALLY REMAIN HIGH...AROUND 40% WITH MORE
NOTED DRYING OCCURRING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE COMBINATION OF RECORD WARMTH...RECORD DRY FUELS AND
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL AT THE VERY LEAST ELEVATE FIRE DANGER AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN THOUGH STRICT RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT
BE MET. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY BE DEALING WITH A SANTA ANA AND
FIRE RESOURCES AT A MINIMUM GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT
RH...TEMP AND WIND TRENDS BY TUESDAY LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO WHEN
THE PFEIFFER FIRE STARTED LAST MONTH IN BIG SUR.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH SUMMARY FOR NEXT WEEK:
CITY MON 1/13/14 TUES 1/14/14 WEDS 1/15/14
-----------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD 65 IN 1994 68 IN 1924 67 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL 68 IN 2009 68 IN 1967 73 IN 1967
NAPA 81 IN 1924 72 IN 1924 70 IN 1966
SAN FRANCISCO 72 IN 2009 69 IN 2009 73 IN 2009
SFO AIRPORT 72 IN 2009 67 IN 1948 69 IN 1974
OAKLAND DT 78 IN 2009 70 IN 2009 75 IN 2009
OAKLAND AP 69 IN 2009 65 IN 2009 74 IN 2009
RICHMOND 69 IN 2012 66 IN 1959 72 IN 2009
LIVERMORE 73 IN 2009 68 IN 2009 75 IN 1920
MOUNTAIN VIEW 71 IN 2009 73 IN 2009 72 IN 2009
SAN JOSE 75 IN 2009 73 IN 2009 73 IN 2009
GILROY 73 IN 2009 74 IN 2009 72 IN 2012
MONTEREY 77 IN 2009 76 IN 2009 76 IN 2009
SANTA CRUZ 80 IN 1948 81 IN 1975 75 IN 2009
SALINAS 84 IN 2009 80 IN 2009 79 IN 2009
KING CITY 83 IN 2009 76 IN 1981 82 IN 2009
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: RC/RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1040 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD JAMES BAY IN CANADA TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG IT NEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL THEN NOSE INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHARP TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN ONE OF THE
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. STRONG S WINDS AND MUCH MILDER
TEMPERATURE LIE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE USED
LATEST LAV AND RUC GUIDANCE TO BEST CAPTURE FORECAST TRENDS. ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDER TO NW HALF OF FORECAST AREA THRU 18Z AS SOME
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER COLD MARINE WATERS HAVE
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD FOG AND THAT WAS ADDED TO THE GRIDDED
FORECAST WITH VISIBILITIES A HALF MILE OR LESS.
STARTING TO SEE RESPONSE FROM SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IN NW
PART OF FORECAST AREA FROM RAIN SO FAR. MORE DETAILS IN HYDROLOGY
SECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY TONIGHT. AN ATTACHED COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP
MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...AND
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND PSBLY A FEW
TSTMS (SOUTH) TO THE REGION. POPS ARE CATEGORICAL THROUGH THE DAY.
THE GREATEST CHC FOR THUNDER IS MOSTLY SOUTH (DELMARVA/SRN NJ)
WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. SPC HAS THESE AREAS IN THE
SGT CHC FOR THUNDER TODAY.
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK ARE RATHER STRONG TODAY...THE DEGREE OF
MIXING SHOULD NOT BE THAT GREAT WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING OVER A
COOLER SFC AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH A WIND ADV WAS CONSIDERED...WE
DECIDED INSTEAD TO ISSUE AND SPS WITH THE MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS
NEAR TSTMS TODAY. SPOTTY GUSTS AROUND 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE.
TEMPS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW UPWARD TREND AS OF LATE. TEMPS
OVER THE SRN AREAS (WHICH ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S) SHOULD REACH THE
MID 60S...WHILE THEN NRN AREAS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.
QPF WILL AVERAGE AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY
AND EARLY TONIGHT...LOCAL 2.0 INCH AMTS ARE POSSIBLE. SEE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES OFF THE
COAST 01Z-03Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WRLY AND PCPN WILL END FROM W TO E.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK THROUGH THE 40S (SOUTH) AND INTO THE
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE NRN AREAS. PCPN WILL END AS RAIN IN ALL AREAS
WITH THE COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATER AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
GUSTY WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM AS WE
HEAD BACK TOWARD A COLDER REGIME. THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED
BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB, THE 500MB TROF IS DEEPER. THE 850MB AND
925MB INITIALIZATION AVERAGED ABOUT A DEGREE TOO LOW. THIS IS A
TENDENCY THAT HAS BEEN AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND PROBABLY
ONE OF THE REASONS FOR MORE SNOW NORTHWEST YESTERDAY. FARTHER INTO
THE LONG TERM, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME CLOSER
WITH DOUBLE BARREL THREATS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND A CANADIAN OR
ARCTIC CFP AT THE END OF THE DETERMINISTIC PERIOD. HERE WE TOOK A
MODELING CONSENSUS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE SORTED BETTER. THE
TUESDAY SYSTEM`S TROF THAT IS NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD GET
INTO THE DENSER SOUNDING NETWORK ON SUNDAY.
A BRISK BUT DRY DAY FOR SUNDAY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OFF ONTARIO
AND AT LEAST A HIGH ENOUGH INVERSION, WE DID INCLUDE SOME SNOW
FLURRIES FOR THE POCONOS. ELSEWHERE, THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD OCCUR. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN EDGING COOLER AND WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY, MORE IN
LINE WITH GFS MOS THAN NAM MOS.
IF THERE IS GOING TO BE A RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, IT WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS GETS CLOSEST TO OUR CWA UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. THE CAA IS ALSO DONE. WE WENT WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE IN
OUTLYING/MORE RURAL AREAS AND A COMPROMISE ELSEWHERE.
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MILDER AIR ON MONDAY. THIS REBOUND MAY BE
TEMPERED BY SOME RETURN FLOW MOISTURE (CLOUDS) AS BY THEN THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION. BASED ON FCST 925MB TEMPS, WE
REMAINED OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COASTAL PLAIN LOCATIONS REACHING THE
50S. SO WE ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE.
THE NEXT PCPN EVENT IS SLATED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS
REMAINS AMONG THE FASTEST. MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS 500MB TROF IS
DEEPER AND THIS TIME OF YEAR DEEPER SOLUTIONS NORMALLY PREVAIL. SO
WE SLOWED THE TIMING DOWN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. DEEPER ALSO MEANS
WETTER WITH MORE GULF MOISTURE INVOLVEMENT. WE WILL KEEP A BUNCH
OF EYES ON THIS FACET. PTYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN. SLOWER
TIMING ALSO MEAN HIGHER TEMPS AND WE KEPT MINS AND MAX TEMPS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY.
THERE SHOULD BE A PCPN BREAK ON TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. HERE THE GFS REMAINS FASTER AND DOES NOT
DIG THE NEXT NEXT TROF AS MUCH AS OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE
ECMWF WHILE IT REMAINS STRONGER WITH THE COLD AIR CYCLOGEN ALONG
THE FRONT, HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE DEEPER/MORE SOUTHERN
DEVELOPMENT IT HAD LAST NIGHT. ONE OF THE REASONS IS THE CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC HAS DP/DTING BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH
EACH SUCCEEDING RUN. THIS HAS DEFACTOED THE NAO TO BE LESS
NEGATIVE AND THUS A MORE NORTHERN DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS FAR FROM
BEING ETCHED IN STONE AND THIS ONE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE
SOME SNOW OCCUR.
AFTER THIS LOW DEPARTS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL, THIS HIGH`S
ORIGIN IS FROM THE PACIFIC. SO UNLIKE LAST WEEK`S VERSION, THIS AIR
MASS HAS MORE OF ITS COLDNESS (RELATIVE TO NORMAL) IN THE UPPER HALF
OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY.
THIS ONE MAY BE MOISTURE STARVED. BUT THE ENSUING HIGH BEHIND THIS
FRONT IS COMING FROM WESTERN CANADA AND WILL BRING EVEN COLDER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. PLEASE DONT CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES IN FOG AND RAIN. A LOW LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TWO THOUSAND FT WINDS IN THE 50
TO 60 KNOT RANGE. A FEW TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH/EAST...BUT THEY WERE NOT PLACED IN THE TAFS ATTM. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE WRN TERMINALS 21-23Z.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE DEL VALLEY 23Z-01Z AND THE
OFF TH COAST 01Z-03Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY AND REMAIN GUSTY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E AND THEN
CIGS/VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA. SKIES
MAY IMPROVE BACK TO FEW/SCT BY DAWN SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS
AND GUSTY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
MONDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR IN RAIN.
POSSIBLY SNOW POCONO AIRPORTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A VFR PERIOD. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING BETWEEN SYSTEMS
IS LOW.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A GREATER
INFILTRATION OF SNOW AS A PRECIPITATION TYPE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
LATER WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
MID-MORNING MARINE FORECAST UPDATE ADDED WIDESPREAD FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF MILE (AND EVEN LOWER IN SOME
LOCATIONS) DUE TO MILD HIGH DEW POINT AIR OVER COLD MARINE WATERS.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE IN PLACE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
MARINE PRODUCTS WERE UPDATED JUST BEFORE 700 AM TO PLACE THE GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT. BUOYS ARE ALREADY SHOWING GUSTS APPROACHING
GALES...AND THE TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE.
ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE ONGOING FLAGS FOR THE WATERS. THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE OCEAN WAS ALSO PLACED OVER DEL BAY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST AT THE ELEVATED WIND PLATFORMS OVER THE
BAY. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL STEADILY INCREASE TODAY AS THE SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW/FRONT REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
IS A CHC FOR A TSTM WITH LOCAL HIGHER WINDS/SEAS OVER ALL THE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGHER DEW POINTS MOVING ACROSS THE COLD WATERS...THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH WINDS TO MIX IT INTO A LOW OVC HOWEVER. CONFID IN LOW
VSBY DENSE FOG IS LOW...SO IT WAS NOT PLACED IN THE GRIDS.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT WRLY/NWRLY AND THE PCPN ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GALES WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH SCA FLAGS FOR A WHILE LATER
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...DIMINISHING LATE
IN THE DAY AS THE CAA WEAKENS AS DOES THE WESTERLY FLOW.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW PRECEDING A COLD FRONT.
TUESDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
DELAWARE BAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LULL
PERIOD WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
RETURNING BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME RESPONSE IN SMALLER CREEKS AND
STREAMS TO RAINFALL SO FAR (WHICH HAS BEEN A HALF INCH OR LESS).
HEAVIER RAIN LIES AHEAD. ALSO SEEING REPORTS IN SOCIAL MEDIA OF
EXTREME PONDING OF WATER FROM RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN SO FAR DUE TO
GROUND BEING FROZEN. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHER LEVELS OF RUNOFF FROM
TODAY`S RAIN, LEADING TO A HIGHER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT STREAM RESPONSE TO RAINFALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
INTO TONIGHT, A PLUME OF PW VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST
TO SURGE ACROSS OUR AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
GOOD AMOUNT OF FLOW AND ALSO FORCING TO PRODUCE A SHIELD OF RAIN,
SOME OF WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE PROGRESSIVE, THEREFORE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BE
MORE LIMITED IN DURATION. HOWEVER, DURING TIMES OF HEAVIER RAIN
THERE CAN BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND SOME FLOODING IN AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE 1-HOUR AND 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS THE
LOWEST GENERALLY ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, WE
HAVE HAD ICE JAMS ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND RIVER/CREEK ICE CONTINUES.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW THE ICE BEHAVES, THEREFORE RAPID CHANGES
IN WATER LEVELS CAN OCCUR.
A RAPID WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH THE AREA GETTING WELL
INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME LOWER TO MID 60S. MUCH OF THE REGION
THOUGH HAS LITTLE SNOW COVER SO THERE WILL BE LESS RUNOFF FROM
THIS. BUT, THE TOP LAYER OF GROUND IS FROZEN AND UNLESS IT DOES A
QUICK THAW, RUNOFF WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT. WALKING OUTSIDE THE
OFFICE OVERNIGHT, THERE IS SOME GIVE TO THE GROUND, BUT NOT MUCH
YET.
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS
GET TO FLOOD STAGE, ESPECIALLY SMALLER STREAMS. THEREFORE, A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE FLOOD WATCH, SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-
015>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...SZATKOWSKI/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1100 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR
FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL IS A DEEP AND SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN STATES.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND WILL PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TROUGH IS "BOOKENDED" BY LONGWAVE RIDGES OVER
BOTH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NOW EXITING OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BEING SHOVED SOUTH AND EAST
OUT OF THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS DOWN
FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
BRINGING WITH IT A WARM AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HIGH DEWPOINT
AIR OVER THE NOW COOL SHELF WATERS OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS RESULTING IN AREAS/WIDESPREAD SEA FOG (SOME VERY
DENSE) OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE FOG IS MOST PREVALENT TO THE
NORTH OF SARASOTA AND CONDITION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT CAN PASS AND CLEAR THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS AWAY. GENERALLY
SPEAKING WE LOOK FOR DEWPOINTS TO BE 3-5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES FOR A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEA FOG.
AFTER LAST WEEKS "COLD SNAP"...THE SHELF WATERS COOLED OFF
CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE ALLOWED THESE CONDITIONS TO BE MET. A MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING AND MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED THIS MORNING FROM AREAS TO THE WEST OF EGMONT KEY.
ENOUGH WITH THE FOG...ON TO THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD AND FORCE
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW/MID LEVEL WAA ALONG
WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING/DCVA/QV CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ARE SUPPORTING MULTIPLE MCS CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
GA/AL TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF LATE THIS MORNING. THIS FORCING
ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE RRQ JET PLACEMENT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
TIME INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO OUR
ZONES NORTH OF TAMPA BAY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCES BEFORE SUNSET WILL BE UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA. SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUCH
AS THE HRRR ARE HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY AND HAVE INCLUDED A 30%
CHANCE POP INLAND (JUST IN CASE).
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. THE CHANCES FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORM IS
FAIRLY HIGH AND HENCE SO ARE THE POPS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUTLOOKED CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS QUITE LIMITED THIS
FAR SOUTH AND WILL BE STARTING TO EXIT THE AREA. ALSO...HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE TRULY ROOTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ELEVATED WHICH
WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE WIND THREAT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE A THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
SINCE THE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUITE STRONG. DESPITE THE
LIMITING FACTORS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IN CASE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE
BASED PARCELS OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BE MAINLY
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CONVECTION
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND LIKELY MORE BROKEN WITH TIME AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS PIVOTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ALL RAIN DOWN TO EVEN FORT MYERS BY SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY.
A DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL FILL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
OF THE PENINSULA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GULF. ENJOY YOUR SATURDAY AND WATCH OUT
FOR THE FOG ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH PATCHY BR ARE NOW LIFTING WITH ONLY
IFR CIGS AT SRQ/PIE/TPA. AFT 15Z EXPECT VFR...LCL MVFR CIGS...WITH
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. APPROACHING FRONT WITH MAINLY
SHRA ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT. AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 59 72 55 / 40 60 10 10
FMY 83 65 79 57 / 20 40 10 10
GIF 82 58 72 53 / 40 60 10 10
SRQ 78 61 72 53 / 40 60 10 10
BKV 80 52 71 44 / 60 60 10 10
SPG 77 61 70 58 / 40 60 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
720 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ACTIVE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY A
STRONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER-MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST... WHICH IS
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAKOUT
AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...
POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM /QLCS/...WILL REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. H3R INSTABILITY PROGS AND NAM/RAP MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO 900-1200 J/KG WITH
LIFTED INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -4 TO -6C. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...HEALTHY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT
INDUCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETTING COUPLED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN A TYPICAL
MID-JANUARY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WHERE DISCRETE CELLS OR EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN
BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP. RAP 0-1KM HELICITY
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 300 M2/S2 AND THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
SHERBS3 TORNADO PARAMETER RISES ABOVE THE BENCH MARK OF 1 UNIT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...ALL SUGGESTING THERE IS A REASONABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.
FOR TODAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS PLACED WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO ATTRIBUTES IN ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS AND HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WINDOW OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE
BEACHES.
SUNDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...YET PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH QUICKLY TOWARD THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REMAINING
GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO
OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...YET STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT BRIEF DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
MONDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND TRAILING FRONT AS THEY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN GENERAL...A
SOLID TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TIME FRAME. WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EVEN AS
CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACTUALLY
APPEARS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PULLS THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A RESULT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
DRIVEN BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE DESCENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LACK
OF SOLID COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE EAST COAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED
IN THE MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST SEEN IN
DAYS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING INTO VERY LOW STRATUS DECKS AT
BOTH TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. LIFR CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE SLOWLY RISING. UNTIL THEN...CIGS
WILL REMAIN VERY NEAR AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AND WELL BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING. SQUALL LINE WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM 20-23Z. WILL
INCLUDE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA FOR NOW...BUT BRIEF STINTS
AS LOW AS LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN. THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY 00-23Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES HOLD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
SATELLITE AND GOES LIFR PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SEA FOG HAS MOVED
INTO THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THIS AREA THROUGH 10 PM.
TODAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL FORECAST
ZONES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
20-25 KT OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...RISING TO
4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
POP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE LINE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TONIGHT...THE SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WEST
WITH THE FRONT AND INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 20-25 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 25-30 KT OFFSHORE
WATERS. RIGHT NOW WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF STINT OF 35 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...EXCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE A DECAYING EFFECT OF SEAS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY ABOUT 1-2 FT...BUT SEAS OF
6-8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LONGER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE ABLE TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE MONDAY...LIKELY
PULLING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A MORE SOLID SURGE INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
621 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SUNDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE COAST
MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS INLAND JASPER AND INLAND CHATHAM
COUNTIES. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THESE TWO
ZONES. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY UNTIL 10 AM. 1 PM TO 7 PM TIMING
FOR SEVERE TSTMS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK PER H3R OUTPUT.
TODAY...AN ACTIVE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION BEING DRIVEN BY A
STRONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER-MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST... WHICH IS
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BREAKOUT
AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE. ATTM IT APPEARS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...
POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A STRONG/SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM /QLCS/...WILL REACH THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND REACH THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. H3R INSTABILITY PROGS AND NAM/RAP MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO 900-1200 J/KG WITH
LIFTED INDICES DROPPING AS LOW AS -4 TO -6C. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR...HEALTHY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT
INDUCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETTING COUPLED WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITHIN A TYPICAL
MID-JANUARY HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES WHERE DISCRETE CELLS OR EMBEDDED MESO-VORTICES WITHIN
BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP. RAP 0-1KM HELICITY
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 300 M2/S2 AND THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
SHERBS3 TORNADO PARAMETER RISES ABOVE THE BENCH MARK OF 1 UNIT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA...ALL SUGGESTING THERE IS A REASONABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES.
FOR TODAY...WILL HIGHLIGHT POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS
WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS PLACED WITH THE EXPECTED
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S UNDER MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL INCLUDE
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO ATTRIBUTES IN ALL GRIDDED AND TEXT
PRODUCTS AND HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE WINDOW OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S AT THE
BEACHES.
SUNDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...YET PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL PULL THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH QUICKLY TOWARD THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS. COLD ADVECTION
WILL BE WEAK BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WIND DIRECTIONS REMAINING
GENERALLY WEST/SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TO
OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...YET STILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL SUPPORT BRIEF DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH WARM ADVECTION WITHIN BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST
WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE.
MONDAY...SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RETREATING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WAVE AND TRAILING FRONT AS THEY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IN GENERAL...A
SOLID TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
TIME FRAME. WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EVEN AS
CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASES. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL ACTUALLY
APPEARS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING..AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PULLS THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD AS A RESULT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
TUESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS A BIT UNSETTLED EVEN AFTER
THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE...WITH ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SWEEPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS
WAKE WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AS YET ANOTHER FRONT
DRIVEN BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER SHORTWAVE DESCENDS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND THE LACK
OF SOLID COLD ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE EAST COAST STATES
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE NOTABLE COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED
IN THE MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST SEEN IN
DAYS...AS LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER SET UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER PATTERN ON
THURSDAY WILL BE RATHER TRANSIENT...AS BROAD TROUGHING BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONSIDERING DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL AND RAIN CHANCES TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOG IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING INTO VERY LOW STRATUS DECKS AT
BOTH TERMINALS AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE. LIFR CIGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z BEFORE SLOWLY RISING. UNTIL THEN...CIGS
WILL REMAIN VERY NEAR AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AND WELL BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY LATE MORNING. SQUALL LINE WILL
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY FROM 20-23Z. WILL
INCLUDE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA FOR NOW...BUT BRIEF STINTS
AS LOW AS LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN. THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY 00-23Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES HOLD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS WARM/MOIST AIR FLOWS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS. A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL FORECAST
ZONES...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS LATER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS
CLOSER. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND
20-25 KT OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...RISING TO
4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY
POP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE LINE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
TONIGHT...THE SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING
AND BE FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WEST
WITH THE FRONT AND INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 20-25 KT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 25-30 KT OFFSHORE
WATERS. RIGHT NOW WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH
A BRIEF STINT OF 35 KT WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS...EXCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE A DECAYING EFFECT OF SEAS OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY ABOUT 1-2 FT...BUT SEAS OF
6-8 FT WILL LINGER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE FETCH WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY LONGER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
BE ABLE TO END BY SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE MONDAY...LIKELY
PULLING A COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
SURGE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONLY MARGINAL ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A MORE SOLID SURGE INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITHIN COLD ADVECTION AND WESTERLY
FLOW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ048>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
329 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
857 PM CST
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHING IN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL MARK AN END TO THE MUCH OF THE RAIN
AND A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE AS IS
FOR NOW...DUE TO ALL THE REPORTS OF ICING AND BAD TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS AND SIDE WALKS. WITH TIME...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THE
GROUND ENOUGH TO LIMIT ICING OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THIS TIME MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE ANYWAYS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WE ARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THAT OF
DENSE FOG. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN AROUND A QUARTER
MILE IN FOG. IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH RIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS DENSER FOG COULD GET INTO MY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS IT APPEARS THE DENSER FOG MAY BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. I WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS...AND I MAY JUST COVER WITH AN SPS UNLESS IT
BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE FOG COULD LAST A BIT LONGER.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
624 PM CST
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR 40...THE COLD
GROUND IS ALLOWING AREA ROADS TO BECOME ICY. WE RECEIVED NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND EVEN CLOSED HIGHWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE IS URGING DRIVERS TO STAY HOME
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN HOW BAD
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WARMING. WITH TIME THE ROAD TEMPS
SHOULD WARM AND END THE THREAT FOR ICING.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY UNTIL SUNRISE
* VSBY RETURNS TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SHORTLY AFTER WIND SHIFT TO
WEST
* IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 09Z...
HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SOME LOCATIONS DOWN TO 1/4SM AND OTHERS STILL VFR...INCLUDING
ORD/MDW. STILL FEEL THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT ORD/MDW AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY SEEING RATHER DENSE FOG DEVELOP FOR A TIME PRIOR TO
WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. REST OF TRENDS FROM
PREVIOUS TAF LOOK GOOD.
IZZI
UPDATED 06Z...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS
THRU EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RFD AROUND 09Z AND
THROUGH CHGO METRO AROUND 11Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST AND A SLOW
FILTERING IN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RESULTING IN IMPROVING
VSBY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS (MOSTLY IFR) EXTENDS BACK
ACROSS ALL OF IOWA AND IS UNLIKELY TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE LOW CIGS TO HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
* LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR TODAY
* NO CONFIDENCE IN CIG FORECAST THIS EVENING
* LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNRISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY REST OF
TODAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...LLWS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR PROBABLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/IFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
155 AM CST
APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL ENTER ANOTHER BUSY PERIOD ON LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF GALES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND ONLY
BRIEF TIME WINDOWS OF LIGHTER WINDS. A MODERATELY STRONG WEST WIND
WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE REGION
WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THEY BACK TO SOUTHWEST. AN INTENSE AND FAST MOVING LOW
WILL RACE EAST ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTH
GALES...PROBABLY HIGHER END GALES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WINDS SHOULD EASE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY MONDAY MORNING THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING A FAIRLY STRONG
CLIPPER RACING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GALES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET BY THURSDAY.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
242 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
Area of dense fog has been rolling eastward across the state early
this morning ahead of a cold front, which was just crossing the
Illinois/Iowa border at 2 am. The back edge of the fog is about
50-75 miles east of the front, so am most concerned east of the
Illinois River for the next few hours. The lingering rain was
mainly along the Indiana border and should be out of the forecast
area soon. Temperatures have remained quite mild overnight, with
upper 30s and lower 40s in many areas except the far northwest.
Main forecast concerns involve precipitation chances next week,
with periodic clipper systems zipping southeast. Also have some
concerns with the extent of cold air late next week, with
discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF models on how far south
the cold air will surge.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday:
Will drop the dense fog advisory west of the Illinois River. HRRR
has been doing a reasonable job with the low visibilities, and the
threat will be more across the east. Will expand the advisory to
cover the remainder of the CWA east of I-57 for a few hours early
this morning, and extend the time a bit to around 7 am. Much of
the fog should be out of the area by that point, except perhaps
around Champaign and Danville.
Deep upper trough to quickly swing eastward today, followed by
another broadening trough early next week. Southerly winds to
25-30 mph and decent sunshine should boost temperatures into the
mid-upper 40s everywhere, with some lower 50s in the southwest and
southeast corners of the CWA. Cooler conditions on Monday as a
cold front passes with the trough. Surge of moisture pushing
northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the trough
has trended a bit further east with the latest model runs, and
associated rainfall may largely miss us. Have maintained some
30-40% PoP`s mainly in the morning across the eastern CWA, but
would not be surprised to see those continue to lower with
subsequent forecasts.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:
Active upper pattern on tap for the upcoming week, with concerns
for light precipitation and surge of cold air.
Regarding the precipitation, first clipper will be racing
southeast Monday night. The GFS is much more progressive and keeps
the precip to the north, while the ECMWF and GEM models favor a
more southern track and somewhat higher chances of precip. Have
raised PoP`s a bit from the initialization levels to favor these
latter models, and will mention a chance of snow on Tuesday, with
a mix in the afternoon in the central and south. Second and
stronger system will track more across the northern Great Lakes
region and have kept precip chances out of our area, but Thursday
and Thursday night will be rather windy.
Latest ECMWF continues its trend of plunging a lobe of cold air
much further south than the GFS late in the week, as the former
model digs the eastern U.S. trough much deeper. 850 mb temps of
-18C on the ECMWF would favor some teens for highs by Friday,
while the GFS`s trough is already well to our east. Have not gone
as cold as the ECMWF, but will continue with highs below freezing
in all areas on Friday.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1147 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
The cold front is just arriving in far western IL as of 05z, and
will progress eastward across the terminal sites over the next 5-6
hours. Dense fog has begun to expand eastward with BMI and CMI
down to 1/4SM FG. HRRR and RAP hi-res models still show widespread
coverage of dense fog across a majority of central IL overnight,
gradually clearing from the west late, with PIA vis improving to
vfr after 11z. Have gone more pessimistic with vis across the
board through sunrise, with the VLIFR mainly across the north. SPI
and DEC have dodged the dense fog so far, but can not rule out a
brief period of FG the rest of the night. Dense fog may linger at
CMI to 13z, then clear out to VFR quickly.
Clouds will remain in the IFR/LIFR range through much of the
morning. Some VLIFR may continue at BMI until after sunrise as
well. Clouds should improve to MVFR Sat afternoon, with a clearing
line expected to push across the area by Sat evening.
Winds will shift from S-SW to W with the cold FROPA, with winds
shifting at PIA around 07-08z, and at CMI toward 12z. Wind speeds
should remain steady in the 09-13kt range overnight, with gusts to
22-24kt returning Sat morning as mixing deepens.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 7 AM CST this morning for
ILZ031-037-038-045-046-055>057-062-063-066>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
155 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
857 PM CST
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
PUNCHING IN ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL MARK AN END TO THE MUCH OF THE RAIN
AND A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN HEADLINE AS IS
FOR NOW...DUE TO ALL THE REPORTS OF ICING AND BAD TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON AREA ROADS AND SIDE WALKS. WITH TIME...TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD SLOWLY WARM THE
GROUND ENOUGH TO LIMIT ICING OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THIS TIME MOST OF THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE ANYWAYS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WE ARE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THAT OF
DENSE FOG. SEVERAL SITES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES DROPPING DOWN AROUND A QUARTER
MILE IN FOG. IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT FOR DENSE FOG WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH RIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS DENSER FOG COULD GET INTO MY WESTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS AS IT APPEARS THE DENSER FOG MAY BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. I WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS...AND I MAY JUST COVER WITH AN SPS UNLESS IT
BECOMES CLEAR THAT THE FOG COULD LAST A BIT LONGER.
KJB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
624 PM CST
WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM TO NEAR 40...THE COLD
GROUND IS ALLOWING AREA ROADS TO BECOME ICY. WE RECEIVED NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS AND EVEN CLOSED HIGHWAYS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. THE ILLINOIS STATE POLICE IS URGING DRIVERS TO STAY HOME
THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GIVEN HOW BAD
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE...WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WARMING. WITH TIME THE ROAD TEMPS
SHOULD WARM AND END THE THREAT FOR ICING.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* IFR OR LOWER CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY OVERNIGHT
* VSBY RETURNS TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE SHORTLY AFTER WIND SHIFT TO
WEST
* IFR CIGS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CHGO METRO TERMINALS
THRU EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
IN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH RFD AROUND 09Z AND
THROUGH CHGO METRO AROUND 11Z WITH WIND SHIFT TO WEST AND A SLOW
FILTERING IN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS RESULTING IN IMPROVING
VSBY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRATUS (MOSTLY IFR) EXTENDS BACK
ACROSS ALL OF IOWA AND IS UNLIKELY TO MIX OUT SATURDAY...SO WOULD
ANTICIPATE LOW CIGS TO HANG AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO EVENING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO LOW END MVFR IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SATURDAY
* NO CONFIDENCE IN CIGS SATURDAY EVENING
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN VSBY TRENDS REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VSBY SATURDAY
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS...LLWS POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. VFR PROBABLE.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/IFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
155 AM CST
APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL ENTER ANOTHER BUSY PERIOD ON LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF GALES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND ONLY
BRIEF TIME WINDOWS OF LIGHTER WINDS. A MODERATELY STRONG WEST WIND
WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE REGION
WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THEY BACK TO SOUTHWEST. AN INTENSE AND FAST MOVING LOW
WILL RACE EAST ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTH
GALES...PROBABLY HIGHER END GALES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WINDS SHOULD EASE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY MONDAY MORNING THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING A FAIRLY STRONG
CLIPPER RACING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GALES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET BY THURSDAY.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1147 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Dense fog potential will increase as the cold front progresses
across Illinois. We already issued a dense fog advisory for areas
NW of the IL river, but the latest runs of the RAP and HRRR both
show dense fog developing after midnight across nearly all of the
remainder of the KILX CWA. Forecast soundings and current dewpoint
depressions support that scenario, so may need to expand the
advisory eastward by late evening. Upstream obs along the southern
portion of the cold front are not as supportive of dense fog
farther southeast, but we have had more snow melt from a deeper
snow pack in our areas.
Steady rainfall has generally become confined to areas southeast
of I-70. A secondary batch of rain has redeveloped from STL to
Jacksonville and is progressing to the ENE into our area. It
should mainly affect areas along and southeast of I-55 over the
next 4-6 hours.
Colder air arriving behind the cold front will have the potential
to change any lingering sprinkles or light rain west of I-55 into
snow. However, subsidence should prevail by that time and precip
should be minimal after the cold air arrives.
Low temperatures are expected to dip below freezing NW of the IL
river, with around freezing east to the I-55 corridor. That could
help create some slippery conditions on untreated and secondary
roads.
Updates to the forecast grids this evening mainly covered the
addition of fog and dense fog, as well as minor low temp
adjustments. We also added slight chance of rain or snow lingering
in the NE early Sat morning. The remainder of the forecast looks
on track. Updated info will be available shortly.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1147 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
The cold front is just arriving in far western IL as of 05z, and
will progress eastward across the terminal sites over the next 5-6
hours. Dense fog has begun to expand eastward with BMI and CMI
down to 1/4SM FG. HRRR and RAP hi-res models still show widespread
coverage of dense fog across a majority of central IL overnight,
gradually clearing from the west late, with PIA vis improving to
vfr after 11z. Have gone more pessimistic with vis across the
board through sunrise, with the VLIFR mainly across the north. SPI
and DEC have dodged the dense fog so far, but can not rule out a
brief period of FG the rest of the night. Dense fog may linger at
CMI to 13z, then clear out to VFR quickly.
Clouds will remain in the IFR/LIFR range through much of the
morning. Some VLIFR may continue at BMI until after sunrise as
well. Clouds should improve to MVFR Sat afternoon, with a clearing
line expected to push across the area by Sat evening.
Winds will shift from S-SW to W with the cold fropa, with winds
shifting at PIA around 07-08z, and at CMI toward 12z. Wind speeds
should remain steady in the 09-13kt range overnight, with gusts to
22-24kt returning Sat morning as mixing deepens.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 253 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2014
Main issues for this forecast package include the rain tonight and
then more chances for end of the weekend and beginning of next
week. Models look in pretty good agreement through about 66hrs but
then differ with intensity of next system and the resulting
precip. Extended models do begin to look better once we get to the
end of next week. So, confidence in forecast in the near term is
good, but wanes with the next system(s) for the end of the weekend
and the beginning of next week. So, will take a blend for now.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
Rain will continue to move across the area tonight and should
begin to wane after midnight, and then be east and northeast of
the area by morning. By then, the low pressure area associated
with the pcpn will have moved into the Grt Lks region and the
500mb trough will be pushing through the region. So, beyond
tonight, dry weather is expected for tomorrow through Sunday.
After some ridging, another weak front will move into the area
late Sunday night. The return of moisture ahead of this system
looks weak and doesn`t seem to arrive until the frontal system is
about halfway through the area. So will have chance of pcpn for
Monday in the east and southeast only. Will also have a slight chc
of pcpn for Sun night, but this will not show up in the worded
forecast. Pcpn type should also be just rain as temps should be
warm enough through the atmosphere to support all liquid and
nothing frozen, and surface temps will be above freezing.
Temps will continue to warm as area sits in a somewhat zonal
pattern for the weekend. Guidance numbers look ok, but went a
little warmer in the southeast for tonight.
LONG TERM...Monday night through Friday
The beginning of the extended is where the models really look
different. The GFS brings another wave down across the area for
Monday night through Tue, while the ECMWF has stronger southern
stream energy that holds some pcpn back for Monday night and into
Tuesday. Because of the differences, not confident enough to put
chc pops in the forecast at this time. So will just have slight
chc pops for the time period. Both models show a second
wave/trough coming into the area from the northwest, so little bit
cooler weather will move into the region. This will cause the pcpn
type to be more of snow or rain/snow mix in the south part of the
cwa. However, since this will be slight chc, the pops will not
be seen in the worded forecast. But cloudy skies will be
mentioned. Remainder of the extended period, and next week, will
be dry. GFS brings additional chances of pcpn through the area,
but ECMWF does not. For now, going with a dry forecast seems best.
Temps will slightly warmer for Tue, but then become cooler again
for Wed and again on Friday. MEX numbers seem to have a good
handle on this currently.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 AM CST Saturday FOR ILZ027>030-036-
040.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
650 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE...A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE...THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEDGE FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL LINGERING IN THE
UPPER 30S IN THE IMMEDIATE TRIAD...TO THE MID 60S TOWARD KCTZ. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE AT KRDU WAS IN THE MID 40S WHILE THE
TEMPERATURE AT THE NWS OFFICE TO THE EAST ACROSS TOWN WAS NEAR 60.
THE WEDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT IT COULD BE A SLOW PROCESS...AND WILL STAY ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE HIGH TODAY IN THE TRIAD. FROM U.S. 1
EAST...ANTICIPATE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RISE TO VALUE NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S...WARMEST FAR SOUTHEAST. WILL
NOTE RECORD HIGHS AT KRDU OF 75 AND KFAY OF 79 BOTH SET IN 1930. NOT
GOING THAT WARM...AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LEVEL OF
WARMTH CURRENTLY.
THE WARMTH...THOUGH...WILL HELP IN DEVELOPING SOME INSTABILITY
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN
THE RAP...WITH THE FORMER SUGGESTING LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO -2C
TO -4C ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1 BY THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
700J/KG OF CAPE IN THE LOWEST KM AS A STRONG 700MB SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA...AHEAD OF A 110KT 500MB JET AND WINDS OF AT LEAST
65KT AT 850MB. THE RAP ONLY FORECASTS ABOUT 200J/KG OF SURFACE-BASED
CAPE...BUT EVEN WITH THE CAPE FORECAST OF THE RAP...AND THE LIMITED
MIXING ON THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...THERE COULD EXIST ENOUGH BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND 60KT OF 0-3KM
SHEAR THAT A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER...MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO NOTE A SLIGHT RISK FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IN THE
HWO. AS DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN
THE 0-3KM HELICITY FORECAST BY THE GFS BETWEEN 100 AND 300M2/S2...
WITH SIMILAR VALUES FORECAST BY THE LATEST RAP.
IN TERMS OF OTHER ITEMS TO CONSIDER...MANY AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BUT VISIBILITIES WERE PRIMARILY ABOVE
A HALF-MILE. A FEW POCKETS OF VISIBILITY FROM A HALF-MILE OR LESS.
FOR NOW AM NOT PLANNING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. IN ADDITION...AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE WITH
MIXING GRADIENT WIND GUSTS TO 35MPH.
TONIGHT...MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FAIRLY SUBSIDENT BY 06Z. LINGERING SHOWERS...AND
A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY TONIGHT...
DIMINISH WEST-TO-EAST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL TO AROUND A
QUARTER-INCH BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND EXPECT A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT MODELS ARE STRONGLY DRY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S IN THE TRIAD TO THE MID
40S TOWARD KCTZ...AROUND 40 IN THE U.S. 1 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
SUNDAY...SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVERALL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FALLING BELOW A QUARTER-INCH SUNDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT. WITH MIXING...THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN
AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE MID 50 TO AROUND 60.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST WHICH COULD ALLOW
A RETURN OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. THE RELATIVELY
STRONGER 300MB WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THOUGH...SO ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT
MOVE IN SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY THIN BROKEN AT TIMES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S...COOLEST AND CLOSE TO FREEZING IN SOME OF
THE TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. -DJF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY MONDAY...WITH PRECEDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT YIELDING CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE AVERAGE BY SOME 8-12
DEGREES...IN RETURN SSW FLOW AROUND PROGRESSIVE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD - SIMILAR TO
THOSE EVIDENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS - CONTINUE TO
PLAGUE THE MON NIGHT-TUE TIME FRAME. THAT IS...THE ECMWF AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR A SLOWER TROUGH PROGRESSION...WITH
MORE SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANCE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW FOR MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FARTHER INLAND THAN A MORE
SUPPRESSED/OFFSHORE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. WILL FOLLOW
PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONTINUED WPC PREFERENCE TOWARD THE
WETTER-FOR CENTRAL-NC ECMWF SOLUTIONS...AND AS SUCH...CARRY A HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY PROBABILITY OF RAIN MON NIGHT-TUE...WITH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. CONTINUED
RELATIVELY MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SATURDAY...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM...WITH
THE ECMWF AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS REGARDING A TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG CLIPPER SURFACER LOW FORECAST TO
MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND SOME
DEGREE OF SECONDARY COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST CENTERED AROUND WED. SINCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN QUESTION IS
AN ELONGATED AXIS OF SHEAR VORTICITY SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS...IN
A REGION OUTSIDE OF THE DOMAIN OF THE EC AND GFS MODEL DATA
AVAILABLE TO RAH...IT IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A PREFERENCE TOWARD ONE
CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE OTHER. BOTH CLUSTERS OF SOLUTIONS ARE
RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AT OUR LATITUDE -
NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE PRIMARY VORT AND CLIPPER SFC LOW PASS TO
OUR NORTH - SO WE WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN THE FLAVOR OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
CENTERED ON THE DAY WED. THERMAL PROFILES INDEED APPEAR QUITE
COLD...PARTICULARLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER (IN THE H85-7
LAYER)..CHARACTERISTIC OF STEEP LAPSE RATE ALOFT/MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEMS. THE NON-SPECIFIC MENTION OF "RAIN OR SNOW" WILL SUFFICE
UNTIL A CLEARER MODEL PREFERENCE AND/OR CONSENSUS BECOMES APPARENT.
CLEARING IN BRIEF MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR
THU...IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHARPENING TROUGH ALOFT AND
APPROACHING MOISTURE-STARVED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE IN CONTINUED
STRONGLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE SCATTERED FOR A
PERIOD AS IT TRANSITIONED TO A MORE SHOWERY CHARACTER. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR REMAINED A CONCERN TOWARD THE TRIAD...WITH WIND SPEEDS
STILL FAIRLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AT THE SURFACE THERE...VEERING
RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AROUND 40KT BY 2000FT. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE TRIAD AND HAVE NOTED A
TEMPORARY CONDITION WITH THUNDER IN THE KINT AND KGSO TAFS EARLY
THIS MORNING. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A LIKELY BAND OF SHOWERS...AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY WINDS WITH THE BAND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD...BUT
INSTABILITY INCREASES TO THE EAST...AND IT IS NOTED IN THE FORECASTS
FOR KRDU...KFAY...AND KRWI WEST GUSTS TO 40KT DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN IT IS EXPECTED A STRONGLY-FORCED LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. NOTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE TRIAD WITH THE
EXPECTED BAND...JUST SLIGHTLY LESS IN TERMS OF THE SPEED OF THE
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS DUE TO LESSER INSTABILITY THERE. RAPID DRYING
TAKES PLACE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR WEST-TO-EAST ACCOMPANIED BY A NOTICEABLE WEST WIND
THAT REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND
20KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH MIXING SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THEN AS
WELL.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF/MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
858 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT OVER INDIANA REGENERATING SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AS THE PRIMARY FRONT PUSHES EAST OF YOUNGSTOWN. SOME FOG DEVELOPED
IN THE MORE STABLE AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE INITIAL FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OH NEAR TOLEDO. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND FRONT WE
EXPECT THIS TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BUT WE AREN`T LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION...PERHAPS A FEW MORE TENTHS OF AN INCH TODAY.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL WITH A BRIEF TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOW. THE AIR WILL COOL FASTER THAN THE GROUND SO WILL SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MELTING BEFORE ANY OF THE SNOW BEGINS TO STICK AND
ACCUMULATE...BY WHICH TIME THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AGAIN USED MAINLY NAM TIMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BLENDING INTO
THE GFS TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ALSO
EXTEND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL BEGIN WITH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS AT
12Z HOWEVER IN THE WEST WILL DROP CLOUDS TO PC IN THE MORNING. FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE CLOUDS IN THE EAST AS WELL. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL COME MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY BY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MERGES
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS DOESNT SHOW THIS
AS AGGRESSIVELY HOWEVER SO WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON DID BACK OFF LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE NUMBERS.
AFTER A 6 TO 12 HOURS BREAK MODELS BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER AT 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AND
SURFACE LOW SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BROUGHT SNOW IN CLOUDS BUT
ESSENTIALLY BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY
CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY MILD TEMPS...COOLING OFF MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE PATH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA STAYING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY. RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TO START. THE WARM FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DOES NOT HAVE A BIG PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH IT AND WILL
MODERATE TEMPS ONLY TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL HAVE RETURNED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE
HAD US ALL IFR/MFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INSTEAD MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN MVFR/VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TOL. EARLY MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR COME IN CLOSEST TO CURRENT REALITY SO HAVE LEANED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING TOL LATE MORNING...AND ERIE EARLY EVENING. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS LURK TO THE WEST ACROSS NW OH AND MI/IND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HRRR DID NOT REALLY GET THIS IFR PAST THE I-71
CORRIDOR AND CLE/MFD. ALL OTHERS JUST DROP TO MVFR LATER. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MVFR OVERCAST THROUGH 12Z
SUN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 00Z SUN VERY LIMITED AND LEFT OUT
OF TAF FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY AID IN ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND YIELD
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WILL
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SHIFTING/RIDGING/RAFTING OF
ICE ON THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TAKES
A PATH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY GO NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
653 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...UDJUSTED POPS BASED ON RADAR. ALSO BROUGHT LIKELY POPS
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS FROM
NRN INDIANA GET INTO THE AREA. BOOSTED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS
WELL.
ORIGINAL...USED A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR FOR THE
NEAR TERM FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BEGIN WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER ALMOST
IMMEDIATELY FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RADAR SHOWING
WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR HINTED AT WITH THE FIRST SURGE HAVING EXITED
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING IN. AND YET
ANOTHER WAVE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. EVENTUALLY THIS MAY ALL BLEND
TOGETHER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE CWA...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING TO THE EASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND/AFTER DAWN. BY 15Z BROUGHT POPS TO CHANCE IN THE
FAR WEST. MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SURFACE TROF/SHORT WAVE ALOFT
ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN
THE MORNING WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AGAIN USED MAINLY NAM TIMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BLENDING INTO
THE GFS TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ALSO
EXTEND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL BEGIN WITH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS AT
12Z HOWEVER IN THE WEST WILL DROP CLOUDS TO PC IN THE MORNING. FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE CLOUDS IN THE EAST AS WELL. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL COME MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY BY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MERGES
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS DOESNT SHOW THIS
AS AGGRESSIVELY HOWEVER SO WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON DID BACK OFF LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE NUMBERS.
AFTER A 6 TO 12 HOURS BREAK MODELS BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER AT 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AND
SURFACE LOW SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BROUGHT SNOW IN CLOUDS BUT
ESSENTIALLY BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY
CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY MILD TEMPS...COOLING OFF MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE PATH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA STAYING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY. RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TO START. THE WARM FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DOES NOT HAVE A BIG PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH IT AND WILL
MODERATE TEMPS ONLY TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL HAVE RETURNED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE
HAD US ALL IFR/MFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INSTEAD MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN MVFR/VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TOL. EARLY MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR COME IN CLOSEST TO CURRENT REALITY SO HAVE LEANED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING TOL LATE MORNING...AND ERIE EARLY EVENING. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS LURK TO THE WEST ACROSS NW OH AND MI/IND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HRRR DID NOT REALLY GET THIS IFR PAST THE I-71
CORRIDOR AND CLE/MFD. ALL OTHERS JUST DROP TO MVFR LATER. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MVFR OVERCAST THROUGH 12Z
SUN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 00Z SUN VERY LIMITED AND LEFT OUT
OF TAF FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY AID IN ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND YIELD
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WILL
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SHIFTING/RIDGING/RAFTING OF
ICE ON THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TAKES
A PATH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY GO NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO WESTERN QUEBEC THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM
THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SUNDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
USED A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND THE HRRR FOR THE NEAR TERM FROM
THE PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH THE DAY. WILL BEGIN WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS EVERYWHERE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TAPER ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RADAR SHOWING WHAT THE EARLIER HRRR
HINTED AT WITH THE FIRST SURGE HAVING EXITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THE SECOND SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING IN. AND YET ANOTHER WAVE NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. EVENTUALLY THIS MAY ALL BLEND TOGETHER EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES OF
THE CWA...WITH THE FOCUS MOVING TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES
AROUND/AFTER DAWN. BY 15Z BROUGHT POPS TO CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST.
MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER SURFACE TROF/SHORT WAVE ALOFT ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA THAT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE MORNING
WITH TEMPS FALLING DURING MUCH OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AGAIN USED MAINLY NAM TIMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BLENDING INTO
THE GFS TUESDAY. FOR TONIGHT MODELS SHOW THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL ALSO
EXTEND NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL BEGIN WITH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS AT
12Z HOWEVER IN THE WEST WILL DROP CLOUDS TO PC IN THE MORNING. FOR
THE AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE CLOUDS IN THE EAST AS WELL. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL COME MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO MONDAY REACHING JAMES BAY BY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
THE NAM DEVELOPS MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF THE GULF COAST MERGES
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS DOESNT SHOW THIS
AS AGGRESSIVELY HOWEVER SO WHILE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON DID BACK OFF LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE NUMBERS.
AFTER A 6 TO 12 HOURS BREAK MODELS BRING A CLIPPER THROUGH THE
AREA. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER AT 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE AND
SURFACE LOW SO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BROUGHT SNOW IN CLOUDS BUT
ESSENTIALLY BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW SOMETIME TUESDAY
CONTINUING TUESDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY MILD TEMPS...COOLING OFF MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE PATH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA STAYING NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY. RIDGING WEDNESDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TO START. THE WARM FRONT EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING DOES NOT HAVE A BIG PUSH OF WARM AIR WITH IT AND WILL
MODERATE TEMPS ONLY TO NEAR FREEZING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT
AN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL HAVE RETURNED TO END THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD HAVE
HAD US ALL IFR/MFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INSTEAD MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE BEEN MVFR/VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TOL. EARLY MORNING RUNS
OF THE HRRR COME IN CLOSEST TO CURRENT REALITY SO HAVE LEANED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL EXIT EAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN ITS WAKE WITH A COLD
FRONT CROSSING TOL LATE MORNING...AND ERIE EARLY EVENING. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS LURK TO THE WEST ACROSS NW OH AND MI/IND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HRRR DID NOT REALLY GET THIS IFR PAST THE I-71
CORRIDOR AND CLE/MFD. ALL OTHERS JUST DROP TO MVFR LATER. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAINING MVFR OVERCAST THROUGH 12Z
SUN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 00Z SUN VERY LIMITED AND LEFT OUT
OF TAF FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS...SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR MON THRU WED.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW SHIFT SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY AID IN ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND YIELD
GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. WILL
CONTINUE THE GALE WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE SHIFTING/RIDGING/RAFTING OF
ICE ON THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. MONDAYS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SHIFT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TAKES
A PATH ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES EITHER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FINALLY GO NORTHWEST AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
328 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...OUR STRONGEST STORM SO FAR THIS SEASON IS PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ONSHORE INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN MORE GUSTY WINDS AND SQUALLY SHOWERS AS
THE PARENT LOW MOVES ONSHORE LATER TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW
THE CASCADE PASSES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN THE FIRST
HEAVY SNOW IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR THE CASCADES. A WARM FRONT WILL
FOLLOW WITH MORE RAIN SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRYING
TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN IMPRESSIVE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EVIDENT ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A CENTER NEAR 48N/135W. AN ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WITH A STRONG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHING MOVING
ONSHORE INTO WESTERN WA AND NEAR ASTORIA THIS MOMENT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR AND
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.
NOT MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THUS FAR AS DRY
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DOMINATED MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE DRYING PRODUCED
BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED DECENT MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESPITE THE FACT IT IS NIGHT TIME. GUSTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED AS HIGH
AS 45 MPH IN THE PORTLAND AREA. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO BRIEFLY KNOCK OUT
POWER TO OUR OFFICE HERE IN PARKROSE/NE PORTLAND...AND A FEW OTHER
POWER OUTAGES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE PORTLAND METRO AREA.
THE WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
COAST RANGE...ALREADY EXCEEDING OUR PREVIOUS STRONGEST WINDS OF THE
SEASON FROM OUR STORM BACK IN LATE SEPTEMBER. ASTORIA AIRPORT HAS
REPORTED A FEW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...WITH THE HIGHEST BEING 64
MPH. THE NOAA/NOS WIND SENSOR AT GARIBALDI REPORTED 73 MPH AND AN
ODOT WIND SENSOR ON THE MEGLER BRIDGE NEAR ASTORIA HAS REPORTED A
PEAK GUST OF 79 MPH SO FAR. THE BIG WINNER IS THE BPA SITE ON NASELLE
RIDGE IN PACIFIC COUNTY WA WITH A GUST OF 93 MPH...BUT THIS SITE IS
HIGHLY ELEVATED AT 2000 FT AND EXPOSED. THIS COINCIDES NICELY WITH
THE 75 KT WINDS SHOWN BY THE KLGX DOPPLER RADAR AT AROUND 2000 FT
MSL.
THE FIRST PEAK OF WINDS WILL COME JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE INLAND VALLEYS...GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IN THE COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...AND 70-80 MPH BEACHES AND HEADLANDS. EXPECT A BRIEF
LULL AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS RAIN STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE
AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS BRIEFLY SLACKEN.
A SECOND SURGE OF WIND WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AS AN IMPRESSIVE
BENT-BACK OCCLUSION FEATURE PUSHES ONSHORE. THE RAP MODEL HAS BEEN
DAUNTING WITH 60-70 KT WINDS HOVERING JUST 1500-2500 FT ABOVE THE
VALLEY FLOOR AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ONSHORE. THE LATEST RUNS ONLY SEEM
TO BE GETTING STRONGER. 00Z/06Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE...WITH 55-65 KT WINDS 3000-4000 FT MSL. EITHER WAY THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH IN THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A HIGH WIND WARNING. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH...AND CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKE A SOLID WIND ADVISORY IS THE
BEST WAY TO GO FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.
THE COAST AND COAST RANGE WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY...AND THAT IS WHY
WE HAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT
GUSTS 55-65 MPH TO IMPACT THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES AS THE LOW AND
BENT-BACK OCCLUSION MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH COAST.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. THE INITIAL
SHOT OF FOCUSED...HEAVY RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE TO SHORT TO CAUSE HYDRO
ISSUES. THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL SEE A QUICK INCH OF RAIN FROM THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF THIS MORNING...WHILE THE VALLEYS GET 0.25-0.50
INCH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND DROP THE SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 3000-3500 FEET. MEANWHILE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY... GREAT
FOR OROGRAPHICS IN THE CASCADES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED
HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE CASCADES...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FALLING
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE SNOW WILL COME WITH A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WIND...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.
A WARM FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY.
A DECENT MOISTURE PLUME WILL OVERRUN THE EXISTING COLD AIR AS A MILD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS NORTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN...RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.25-0.50
INCH IN THE VALLEYS TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH.
THE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTH SUN/MON AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SHOULD DRY OUT THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH...BUT STRENGTHENING INVERSIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS. BY MON NIGHT MOST OF SW WASHINGTON AND NW
OREGON SHOULD BE DRY...WITH FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND MILDER CONDITIONS
UP ABOVE. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. AFTER THIS...MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION AND DOMINATE THE PATTERN UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT
RAIN IN SW WASHINGTON ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DAILY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY BY THURSDAY AND OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...FRONT NEAR THE COAST BRINGING RAIN...STRONG WINDS AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ALONG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED AT THE COAST AROUND 12Z AND A COUPLE OF HOURS
LATER FOR THE INLAND TAF LOCATIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE FRONT...THEN TRENDING TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE
MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR TO DEVELOP IN
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE VERY
GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONT. WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE A
CONCERN FOR MANY SITES AS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 60+ KT IS BEING
ADVERTISED BY THE FCST MODELS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT. EXPECT THE
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...FRONT NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINAL AROUND 14Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MID TO LATE
MORNING. EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR DEVELOPING DURING SHOWERS.
ALSO...LOOK FOR VERY GUSTY S/SW WINDS TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. PYLE/MH
&&
.MARINE...THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH BUOY 46089 AROUND 09Z...BUT
WINDS THERE HAVE BARELY BEEN GALES. CLOSER IN THERE IS GOOD
EVIDENCE OF A COASTAL JET WITH NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND BEACH WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING STORM FORCE GUSTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND THE COLUMBIA RIVER ENTRANCE. ON THE CENTRAL
COASTAL WATERS WINDS ARE WEAKER BUT COULD SEE BRIEF STORM FORCE
GUSTS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ASHORE 4 TO 5 AM. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND EASE. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SUB GALE WINDS.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG
TROUGH FOLLOWING THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE WATERS LATER IN THE
MORNING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS.
ASCAT SATELLITE WINDS FROM THE 06Z PASS MATCHED UP QUITE WELL WITH
THE NAM BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS. WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODELS HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY IT WILL BE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 KT MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO
HAVE LOWERED THE STORM WARNING TO GALES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST
GIVEN THE TRACK THE MODELS ARE TAKING THE TROUGH.
THE SEAS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND OF KEEPING MAX SEAS AROUND 30
FT THIS EVENING. THE WESTERLY SWELL WILL CLIMB ABOVE 20 FT THIS
MORNING PEAK NEAR 30 FT THIS EVENING...AND LIKELY DROP BELOW 20 FT
SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC FETCH SITUATION AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO QUICK TO DECAY THE OFFSHORE SEAS. MODELS ALSO
TEND TO BE TOO SLOW BUILDING THE SEAS IN THESE SITUATIONS. WENT A
LITTLE HIGHER ON THE MAX SEAS THAN ENP OR GWW AND DECAYED THEM A
BIT MORE SLOWLY. UNFORTUNATELY THE CORE OF THE HIGHEST SWELL IS IN
A DATA VOID AREA SO THERE IS NO GROUND TRUTH DATA TO PERFORM
FURTHER ANALYSIS AGAINST MODEL OUTPUT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST
IS HIGH.
BY SUN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS HIGH PRES BUILD TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF OREGON FOR A CALMER PERIOD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-LOWER
COLUMBIA-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL COAST
RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COAST RANGE OF
NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR GREATER VANCOUVER
AREA-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 4 AM PST
SUNDAY.
&&
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
621 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT FOR TODAY WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AN AREA OF STRATUS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSH IS MOVING
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE GEM
REGIONAL...HRRR AND RAP...WHICH ALL SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THIS CLOUD COVER. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST CLOUDS MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA OR DISSIPATE...BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT WE SEE RAPID CLEARING
BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THUS WHILE A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING
MAY END UP CLOUDY...WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SUN OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED HIGHS UP SOME IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WHERE MID 40S SEEM LIKELY...AND SOME IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREA
EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WHERE WE WILL LIKELY HIT OR JUST SURPASS
THE FREEZING MARK. OTHERWISE THE GOING HIGHS SEEMED IN GOOD SHAPE.
WINDS WILL BE BLUSTERY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE MIX
INTO A 20 TO 30 KT JET AT 925 MB. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A PERIOD
WHERE WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
OUR FAR EASTERN CWA. THESE WINDS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AS
WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING AS THE CORE OF
WINDS ALOFT PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS.
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICK
EVENING DROP IN TEMPERATURES AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY MID EVENING...ENHANCING
MIXING AND CAUSING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
JUST HOW FAR WE FALL IN THE EVENING IS ALWAYS HARD TO SAY. FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 20S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH LOW
30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BY 12Z...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 30 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE. OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE
STRONG WINDS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. 925MB WINDS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA COULD SEE A PERIOD
WHERE WINDS GUST AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH...MAINLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
TO 5 AM OR SO. THE REST OF US WILL SEE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE GENERALLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM...THE NAM APPEARS TO HAVE SOME ISSUES
WITH WAVE PLACEMENT AND TIMING WHEN COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THEREFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE FOLLOWED IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS. BASICALLY THERE ARE THREE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES TO MONITOR...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND THE LAST
ONE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THEN THE ECMWF WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND FOR THAT MATTER ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ALSO. WITH THE GFS USUALLY A BIT FAST...TRENDED
MORE WITH THE ECMWF FOR FRONTAL TIMING. INITIALLY...SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT DAY AS SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE 925MB TEMPERATURES OFF OF BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF...WIDESPREAD 40S FOR HIGHS ARE WARRANTED. THIS GO
AROUND...THE WEIGHTED MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKED THE BEST AS IT
CAPTURED THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE
IN SW MN...AND THE STRONGER WARMING OVER AREAS WHICH ARE EITHER
FREE OF SNOW COVER OR NEARLY FREE. THE SNOW COVERED AREAS IT KEPT
IN THE LOWER 40S WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THEN
THE FIRST OF THE THREE COLD FRONTS COMES DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH
STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE. LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE
MID TEENS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE
MO RIVER VALLEY. 925MB WINDS ARE AVERAGING ABOUT 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WHICH SUGGESTS A BREEZY NIGHT OF ABOUT 15 TO 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. AGAIN FOLLOWING THE ECMWF TIMING CLOSER THEN THE
GFS...A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IT IS LIKELY
THAT HIGHS WILL NOT REACH 30 IN SW MN. BUT THE WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOULD GIVE 40 TO 45 DEGREE READINGS IN OUR
SOUTH CENTRAL SD ZONES...AS WELL AS ABOUT 40 IN SIOUX CITY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH AFTER MONDAY EVENING. THIS
FRONT HAS A LITTLE BETTER LIFT WITH IT...MORE WIND OFF THE
SURFACE...A STRONG PV SURGE AND SOME BETTER MOISTURE DEPTH.
HOWEVER MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY BE TOUGH TO FIND...SO BELIEVE
THAT ONLY LOW POPS ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED NORTH OF SIOUX CITY
AND STORM LAKE IOWA. 925MB TO 850MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW MONDAY
EVENING...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL ONE BELIEVES. FOR INSTANCE THE
FASTER GFS WOULD SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN OTHER THAN IN SW MN. SO FOR NOW THIS FAR OUT...
PREFERRED JUST LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM TIMING SETTLES
DOWN A BIT. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...ANY PRECIP LEFTOVER WILL BE ALL
LIGHT SNOW. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...THE COLD AIR PUSH IS NOT
REAL SEVERE DESPITE THE DEEP PV SURGE...AND THE STRONG WINDS DO
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FAIRLY MIXED. THEREFORE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S EXCEPT IN SW MN AND THE SPENCER IA AREA WHERE TEENS ARE MORE
LIKELY. IT WILL BE WINDY...BUT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING 30
TO 40 KNOTS AT 925MB...NOT QUITE CONVINCED THAT IT WILL REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CERTAINLY PUT AN ADDED
CHILL TO THE AIR.
ON TUESDAY...ONLY A MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES OFF OF THE LOWS ARE LIKELY. WIND SPEEDS MAY JUST NUDGE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA PRIMARILY IN THE MO RIVER VALLEY
COUNTIES. HOWEVER AS IT WAS MONDAY NIGHT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE A
LITTLE STRONGER SPEEDS AT 925MB...AS THEY ACTUALLY RELAX A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...MUCH WARMER
THEN SOME PREVIOUS READINGS FROM DAYS GONE PAST...BUT IT WILL BE A
CHILLY DAY NONETHELESS.
THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS YET. DESPITE THE TIMING
DIFFERENCE...IN GENERAL BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AVERAGING 45 TO
50 KNOTS AT 925MB LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND THAT
WOULD BE CERTAINLY STRONG ENOUGH FOR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...
POSSIBLY EVEN PUSHING HIGH WIND WARNING IN SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
FORTHCOMING HWO. AT THIS TIME...THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS DRY. BUT ONE
THING OF NOTE IS THAT THE NEW ECMWF DOES REALLY POUR QUITE A BIT
OF COLD AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR EXAMPLE THE ALL BLEND IS GIVING US WIDESPREAD 20S AND 30S FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE RAW ECMWF HIGHS ARE SHOWING MORE
LIKE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR BUT AT LEAST THE ECMWF HAS FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A 1036MB HIGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW END MVFR OR HIGH END IFR STRATUS
WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWEST AT KSUX...BUT RAP AND HRRR HAVE PRETTY CONSISTENTLY INDICATED
STRATUS SHOULD MAKE IT THERE. THUS INTRODUCED THESE CIG REDUCTIONS
INTO ALL THREE TAF SITES. EXIT OF THE STRATUS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE IT EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS...AS THE EXPECTED TIME OF RETURN TO VFR MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY. ONCE THE STRATUS
EXITS...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT CREATING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE....GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KTS. AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE BUFFALO RIDGE COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHENARD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
933 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:33 AM PST SATURDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH WEAK ECHOES SHOWING
UP ON RADAR. NO MEASURABLE RAIN HAS BEEN PICKED UP THUS FAR AT ANY
AREA GAUGES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND SOME
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE 12Z NAM KEEPS ALL RAIN NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE...ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY END BY THIS EVENING
WITH FOG FORMATION POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD ON SUNDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S. SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE BRIEFLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING EFFECTS. AT THIS TIME
WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT THERE COULD BE ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND FOR THE MOST PART BEYOND THROUGH
TEN DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE AND
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS A MIX OF CLOUDS COVER THE REGION WITH A
FORECAST FROPA LATER TODAY. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SPEAKING OF HIGH CLOUDS
THEY ARE MAKING IT DIFF TO SEE ANY STRATUS OR FOG ON THE
SATELLITE. KSTS IS STILL REPORTING FOG. WILL KEEP FOG AT KSTS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. FOR SF BAY...DELAYED ANY CIGS/STRATUS
UNTIL ALMOST 15Z. NOT EVEN THAT CONF STRATUS WILL ACTUALLY
DEVELOP. A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH 18-20Z WITH POSS -RA FOR KSTS
AND VCSH AROUND SF BAY AND NO RAIN MENTION S OF SF BAY. CLEAR
SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH POSS PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR TO START THEN DEV CIGS AROUND 15Z...PT
SOUNDS AND HRRR MODEL REALLY MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. POSS CIGS AND
VCSH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW CONF.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY FOG LINGERS...BUT NONE BEING
REPORTED AT KSNS/KMRY. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS. POSS CIGS LATER TODAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. MEDIUM CONF.
&&
.MARINE...AS OF 3:30 AM PST SATURDAY...NO REAL CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO GENERATE BUILDING
NORTHWEST SWELL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TODAY.NW SWELL 14
TO 18 FEET TONIGHT/SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF 15-16 SECONDS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO LARGER SURF ALONG THE BEACHES. GIVEN THE PERIOD
AND SWELL HEIGHT SQUARED SEAS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. SWELLS QUICKLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 3:06 AM SATURDAY...SOME LIGHT RAIN TODAY IN THE
NORTH BAY BUT IN GENERAL NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
(GREATER THAN A TENTH). NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST BAY HILLS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVENT
LOOKS MODERATE IN STRENGTH WITH 925 MB WINDS IN THE 15-30 KT
RANGE. RH VALUES WILL INITIALLY REMAIN HIGH...AROUND 40% WITH MORE
NOTED DRYING OCCURRING LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE COMBINATION OF RECORD WARMTH...RECORD DRY FUELS AND
DRY EASTERLY FLOW WILL AT THE VERY LEAST ELEVATE FIRE DANGER AND
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EVEN THOUGH STRICT RED FLAG CRITERIA MAY NOT
BE MET. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY BE DEALING WITH A SANTA ANA AND
FIRE RESOURCES AT A MINIMUM GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. CURRENT
RH...TEMP AND WIND TRENDS BY TUESDAY LOOK EERILY SIMILAR TO WHEN
THE PFEIFFER FIRE STARTED LAST MONTH IN BIG SUR.
&&
.CLIMATE...RECORD HIGH SUMMARY FOR NEXT WEEK:
CITY MON 1/13/14 TUES 1/14/14 WEDS 1/15/14
-----------------------------------------------------------------
KENTFIELD 65 IN 1994 68 IN 1924 67 IN 1945
SAN RAFAEL 68 IN 2009 68 IN 1967 73 IN 1967
NAPA 81 IN 1924 72 IN 1924 70 IN 1966
SAN FRANCISCO 72 IN 2009 69 IN 2009 73 IN 2009
SFO AIRPORT 72 IN 2009 67 IN 1948 69 IN 1974
OAKLAND DT 78 IN 2009 70 IN 2009 75 IN 2009
OAKLAND AP 69 IN 2009 65 IN 2009 74 IN 2009
RICHMOND 69 IN 2012 66 IN 1959 72 IN 2009
LIVERMORE 73 IN 2009 68 IN 2009 75 IN 1920
MOUNTAIN VIEW 71 IN 2009 73 IN 2009 72 IN 2009
SAN JOSE 75 IN 2009 73 IN 2009 73 IN 2009
GILROY 73 IN 2009 74 IN 2009 72 IN 2012
MONTEREY 77 IN 2009 76 IN 2009 76 IN 2009
SANTA CRUZ 80 IN 1948 81 IN 1975 75 IN 2009
SALINAS 84 IN 2009 80 IN 2009 79 IN 2009
KING CITY 83 IN 2009 76 IN 1981 82 IN 2009
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 PM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM 3 PM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM
CLIMATE: RC/RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER CO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1011 AM MST SAT JAN 11 2014
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON
EXCEPT 00Z MON FOR KDEN)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST SAT JAN 11 2014
3 TAF SITES...KBJC...KAPA AND KDEN ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
NEXT 24-30 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
WINDS.
IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THAT WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNTS. LATEST HRRR HAS WEAK SFC LOW IN
VICINITY OF DIA...SO WINDS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IF ATMOS MIXES OUT...THEN DIA MAY SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR AWHILE.
KBJC WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE WNW THROUGH TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND
EXPECT GUSTY NW WINDS AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /HODANISH
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ031-
033-034.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
440 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ARRIVES MONDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
INITIAL LINE OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH CG/S PER THE NLDN WERE
NOW EAST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES. ANOTHER LINE OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WAS EVOLVING ACROSS EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS. PER THE HRRR EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES...THIS
LINE MAY FILL IN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...PRESSURE FALLS WERE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8-10MBS/3HRS
OBSERVED IN METARS AND MSAS ANALYSIS AS A MESOLOW PROGRESSED
ACROSS EASTERN NY. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST
OF THE NY COUNTIES AROUND 03Z SUNDAY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES AROUND 05Z SUNDAY. WE WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THEN WE SHIFT GEARS TOWARD LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INCREASING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD TOWARD
-6C/-7C OVERNIGHT OVER THE RELATIVELY OPEN WATERS WHERE AVERAGE
WATER TEMPS WERE AROUND 3C PER THE GLERL OBSERVATIONS. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE DELTA T/S WOULD REMAIN LESS THAN FAVORABLE EVEN WITH
UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION FROM EITHER HURON OR GEORGIAN BAY. SO WE
WILL HOLD POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT THRESHOLDS WITH A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIXTURE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH TOO WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAINLY TERRAIN BASED CHC TO
SCT RA/SN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS PER THE MOS GUIDANCE LOOK RATHER
CLOSE AND PER THE UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT LOW OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL
SHADE ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING WHERE
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY /MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO/ WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EAST...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE SKY FORECAST ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN SOME
SUNSHINE...THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHT TAPS INTO 30-40KT WINDS.
FURTHERMORE...POTENTIAL FOR SOME FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK MAY
INCREASE THOSE MAGNITUDES. PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST BELOW
THRESHOLDS BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. PER THOSE MIXING LAYER
HEIGHTS...WE WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S FOR THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND ANY LAKE
RESPONSE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN ALOFT...AND
THE LOSS OF SNOW PACK...WE WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S UNDER A PTCLOUDY-MOCLR SKY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DEPARTURE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WIND FOR A
RELATIVELY MILD DAY UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED/PROGGED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
THERMAL PROFILES OFFER A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY
LIQUID TO START THEN A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TOWARD
THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE BUT WITH A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVAL
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER AND MILDER THERMAL PROFILES...WE WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL INVOLVE A "WAVY" PATTERN AS SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO ULTIMATELY CARVE OUT A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM WILL BE THE DOMINATING
ONE. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY
BE LIMITED WITH EACH OF THE SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL BUT TREND TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
ON TUESDAY...INITIAL VORTICITY FROM A DIGGING MID LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COULD SPAWN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OR LOW MID ATLANTIC REGION. INTERESTING...THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO
REFLECT THIS IDEA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF...KEEPING ANY WEAK
SURFACE WAVE WELL TO THE EAST. HOWEVER SINCE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF AND
WPC SOLUTIONS INDICATED IT...WE WENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SOLUTION. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATED THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
MISSES OUR REGION...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 30-50 POPS ON THAT DAY
(HIGHEST SOUTHEAST).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...35 TO 40 REMAINING AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES...LOWER 40S CAPITAL REGION...MID TO UPPER 40S
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD FALL (ASSUMING IT WILL BE LIGHT) SHOULD BE
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...RAIN AND A WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR AS
THE FIRST SURFACE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT....WHILE THE FIRST SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST...ALL
MODELS (EXCEPT THE CANADIAN) DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY NEAR
OUR REGION...AS THE THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF. WE
INCREASE POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 30 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK...MID OR
UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...EXCEPT AROUND
40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MEAN ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND WET SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
LITTLE RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BACK
DOWN IN THE 20S (TEENS ADIRONDACKS) ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR
EAST...AND AGAIN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND POSSIBLE RIDGING LOOKS TO DRY
US OUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. ONLY PLACES TO HAVE POPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE THE ELEVATED TERRAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTER
AREAS...LOWER 30S CAPITAL REGION...MID OR UPPER 30S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THEN ON FRIDAY...AN EVEN STRONGER DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHES WITH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...INCREASES CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ONCE MORE.
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND
30 NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
TO MAINLY THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOLDING THEM MAINLY IN THE 20S
ON SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS....OTHER
AREAS LOOK DRY BUT BRISK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING PEAK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AND A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OCCASIONALLY...CIGS AND OR VSBYS COULD
SLIP TO LIFR AS THEY HAVE AT KGFL AND KALB.
WILL CONTINUE WITH LLWS ALTHOUGH OUR VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED
SLIGHTLY LESS STRONG WIND AROUND THE 2000 FOOT LEVEL (CLOSER TO
40KTS AS OPPOSED TO 60 KTS). SO FAR...THERE HAVE BEEN OFFICIALLY NO
REPORTS OF LLWS IN THE PIREPS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WILL REMOVE
ANY LLWS WITH THE OFFICIAL EVENING ISSUANCES OF THE TAFS.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...A
LEFTOVER VCSH OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN PARTICULAR...GUSTS STILL ABOVE 20 KTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY NIGHT:
LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT ICE JAM FLOODING.
RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
CATSKILLS BEING THE CENTER OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS PER
MESONET OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD
WITH MAINLY 50S AND NOW SOME LOWER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND WESTERN GREENS
/DOWNSLOPING/. LATEST NERFC QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST QPF WILL OCCUR
BEFORE 00Z WITH AROUND ONE INCH MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. FURTHERMORE...ICE JAMS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR ICE TO MOVE.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WE WILL EXPERIENCE A DIURNAL RANGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT/MELTING
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED AREAS OF ICE JAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
420 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ARRIVES MONDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
INITIAL LINE OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITH CG/S PER THE NLDN WERE
NOW EAST OF OUR NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES. ANOTHER LINE OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WAS EVOLVING ACROSS EASTERN PA/WESTERN NJ INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS. PER THE HRRR EXPERIENTIAL REFLECTIVITIES...THIS
LINE MAY FILL IN A BIT MORE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON...PRESSURE FALLS WERE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 8-10MBS/3HRS
OBSERVED IN METARS AND MSAS ANALYSIS AS A MESOLOW PROGRESSED
ACROSS EASTERN NY. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST
OF THE NY COUNTIES AROUND 03Z SUNDAY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES AROUND 05Z SUNDAY. WE WILL TAPER OFF POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THEN WE SHIFT GEARS TOWARD LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY INCREASING
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD TOWARD
-6C/-7C OVERNIGHT OVER THE RELATIVELY OPEN WATERS WHERE AVERAGE
WATER TEMPS WERE AROUND 3C PER THE GLERL OBSERVATIONS. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE DELTA T/S WOULD REMAIN LESS THAN FAVORABLE EVEN WITH
UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION FROM EITHER HURON OR GEORGIAN BAY. SO WE
WILL HOLD POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT THRESHOLDS WITH A RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
MIXTURE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH TOO WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAINLY TERRAIN BASED CHC TO
SCT RA/SN SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS PER THE MOS GUIDANCE LOOK RATHER
CLOSE AND PER THE UPSTREAM OVERNIGHT LOW OBSERVATIONS...WE WILL
SHADE ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING WHERE
CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY /MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO/ WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EAST...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO
THE SKY FORECAST ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN SOME
SUNSHINE...THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHT TAPS INTO 30-40KT WINDS.
FURTHERMORE...POTENTIAL FOR SOME FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK MAY
INCREASE THOSE MAGNITUDES. PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST BELOW
THRESHOLDS BUT WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. PER THOSE MIXING LAYER
HEIGHTS...WE WILL FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S FOR THE
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 30S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS FOR TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND ANY LAKE
RESPONSE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN ALOFT...AND
THE LOSS OF SNOW PACK...WE WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S UNDER A PTCLOUDY-MOCLR SKY.
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE DEPARTURE
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS AND
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WIND FOR A
RELATIVELY MILD DAY UNDER PARTIAL SUNSHINE. NCEP MODEL SUITE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED/PROGED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
THERMAL PROFILES OFFER A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY
LIQUID TO START THEN A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF RA/SN
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TOWARD
THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE BUT WITH A LITTLE SLOWER ARRIVAL
ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER AND MILDER THERMAL PROFILES...WE WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL INVOLVE A "WAVY" PATTERN AS SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES LOOK TO ULTIMATELY CARVE OUT A TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THE NORTHERN JETSTREAM WILL BE THE DOMINATING
ONE. WHILE IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY
BE LIMITED WITH EACH OF THE SYSTEMS AS THEY MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL BUT TREND TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
ON TUESDAY...INITIAL VORTICITY FROM A DIGGING MID LATITUDE TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COULD SPAWN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
OR LOW MID ATLANTIC REGION. INTERESTING...THE GFS WAS THE FIRST TO
REFLECT THIS IDEA...BUT HAS NOW BACKED OFF...KEEPING ANY WEAK
SURFACE WAVE WELL TO THE EAST. HOWEVER SINCE THE CANADIAN/ECMWF AND
WPC SOLUTIONS INDICATED IT...WE WENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SOLUTION. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATED THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
MISSES OUR REGION...IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 30-50 POPS ON THAT DAY
(HIGHEST SOUTHEAST).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...35 TO 40 REMAINING AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION AND BERKSHIRES...LOWER 40S CAPITAL REGION...MID TO UPPER 40S
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THIS WILL MEAN MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD FALL (ASSUMING IT WILL BE LIGHT) SHOULD BE
RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...RAIN AND A WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A BRIEF AREA OF SUBSIDENCE WILL OCCUR AS
THE FIRST SURFACE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT....WHILE THE FIRST SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR EAST...ALL
MODELS (EXCEPT THE CANADIAN) DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW ON WEDNESDAY NEAR
OUR REGION...AS THE THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE
REGION...WITH THE ECMWF ACTUALLY CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF. WE
INCREASE POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT AND 40 PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...AROUND 30 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PARK...MID OR
UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...EXCEPT AROUND
40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MEAN ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL
MAINLY AS RAIN IN THE VALLEYS...AND WET SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A
LITTLE RAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BACK
DOWN IN THE 20S (TEENS ADIRONDACKS) ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR
EAST...AND AGAIN SOME SUBSIDENCE AND POSSIBLE RIDGING LOOKS TO DRY
US OUT WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. ONLY PLACES TO HAVE POPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE THE ELEVATED TERRAIN DUE TO POSSIBLE RESIDUAL LAKE ENHANCED
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTER
AREAS...LOWER 30S CAPITAL REGION...MID OR UPPER 30S MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THEN ON FRIDAY...AN EVEN STRONGER DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHES WITH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...INCREASES CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ONCE MORE.
A SOUTHERLY BREEZE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM AROUND
30 NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS...MOUNTAIN SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX.
ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE...LOWERING TEMPERATURES
TO MAINLY THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOLDING THEM MAINLY IN THE 20S
ON SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM SOME POSSIBLE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREENS....OTHER
AREAS LOOK DRY BUT BRISK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF
SITES AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED THROUGH THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SHEAR AT 2KFT BETWEEN 55-65
KTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT ALL THE TAF SITES. TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM 20Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...A LEFTOVER
VCSH OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN PARTICULAR...GUSTS STILL ABOVE 20 KTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON: MODERATE VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUES-THUR: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT ICE JAM FLOODING.
RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
CATSKILLS BEING THE CENTER OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS PER
MESONET OBSERVATIONS. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE MILD
WITH MAINLY 50S AND NOW SOME LOWER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NW CT...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND WESTERN GREENS
/DOWNSLOPING/. LATEST NERFC QPF SUGGESTS THE BEST QPF WILL OCCUR
BEFORE 00Z WITH AROUND ONE INCH MAINLY INTO THE TERRAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. FURTHERMORE...ICE JAMS REMAIN THE GREATEST THREAT
AS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR ICE TO MOVE.
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WE WILL EXPERIENCE A DIURNAL RANGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ICE MOVEMENT/MELTING
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED AREAS OF ICE JAMS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1255 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM`S LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. THE STEADY RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVES OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE
COOLER SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
CONCERNS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ON THE INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS PER THE MESOSCALE OBSERVATIONS...PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND REGIONAL RADAR REVEAL A MESOLOW DEVELOPING
WITH AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. METARS UPSTREAM SHOW ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES.
FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE INCREASED THOSE VALUES A COUPLE OF MORE
DEGREES.
CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE RUC13 AND OUR VWP SHOW LOW LEVEL JET WAS
ON THE INCREASE WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 60KTS JUST ABOVE 2K FEET.
THIS TOO WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW MELT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
TERRAIN. RIVER RESPONSE WAS JUST BEGINNING AS WE CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SWEEP ACROSS AREA THIS
EVENING BRINGING THE STEADY RAIN TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE
WILL BE A THREAT FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SWINGS OVER
AHEAD SUNDAY. THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM PROGRESSIVE WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN ITS WAKE. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST
MONDAY AS ANOTHER DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES. OUR REGION WILL BE
UNDER BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND ADVANCING
TROUGH WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...BUT A
COOL DOWN BACK TO TYPICAL MID JANUARY WX WILL OCCUR BY THE MID WEEK
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE FCST AREA...WITH A SRN STREAM CYCLONE FORMING OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT APPEARS TO BE FAR
ENOUGH EAST BASED ON THE ECMWF FOR ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE
REGION. THE GFS IS EVEN FURTHER OUT TO SEA FOR NO IMPACT...WHILE
THE CANADIAN GGEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF...BUT SLIGHT SLOWER ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. A CHC OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WAS
INCLUDED MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE COAST WILL PLAY A CRUCIAL ROLE ON HOW WARM THE SFC TEMPS GET ON
TUESDAY. OUR LATEST FCST IS CLOSE TO THE WPC GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U30S TO L40S NORTH AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER
HUDSON REGION WITH GENERALLY MID AND U40S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. A
CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS CONTINUED DURING THE DAY. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE PM WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO
-2C TO -6C OVER THE REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...WHERE
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
FCST AREA DEPENDING HOW CLOSE THE COASTAL WAVE IS LOCATED. HAVE
LEANED CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF/WPC SCENARIO HERE WITH THE FRONT...AND
WAVE DRIFTING EASTWARD OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER LOW
WILL APPROACH EMBEDDED IN THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND OR
SNOW SHOWERS TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WED PM INTO WED NIGHT.
THE EC IS A LITTLE HEAVIER ON THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MOVES
THE SFC WAVE OVER THE SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND BORDER. THE GFS LIFTS
THE CLIPPER N/NE TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH LITTLE
PCPN OVER THE REGION. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS
FOR THE MOST OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHC OF SOME SUSTAINED SNOWFALL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE
HIGHEST CHC POPS ARE KEPT HERE WED NIGHT. LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH HIGHS WED CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN
THE M20S TO L30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MID TO
U30S FROM ALY SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRIEFLY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
H500 UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH ANOTHER CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS. THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AT THIS
TIME. IN THE WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE H850 TEMPS COULD TUMBLE BACK
TO -17C TO -20C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS BY 00Z/SAT. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS TO MID AND U30S
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TO START THE TAF PERIOD...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF
SITES AS A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY WORKED THROUGH THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SHEAR AT 2KFT BETWEEN 55-65
KTS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT ALL THE TAF SITES. TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
TAF SITES FROM 20Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...A LEFTOVER
VCSH OR -SHRA IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WESTERN TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE
FRONT AND IN PARTICULAR...GUSTS STILL ABOVE 20 KTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB/KPSF. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON: MODERATE VFR. NO SIG WX
TUES-THUR: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT ICE JAM FLOODING.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALLOWING SNOW MELT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3/4 TO AN INCH FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH AND WEST AND 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE RAINFALL WILL FALL ON FROZEN GROUND WHICH WILL BECOME RUNOFF
AND MAY POTENTIALLY CAUSE STREET OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS. THE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL MAY
CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT AND BREAK UP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ON SOME OF
THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. ICE JAM FLOODING WOULD HAVE ITS GREATEST
THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AT THIS TIME
WILL INCLUDE...BUT NOT BE LIMITED TO...THE HOOSIC RIVER AT
WILLIAMSTOWN AND EAGLE BRIDGE...AND THE WALLOOMSAC RIVER AT
BENNINGTON.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING OR BELOW. OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
400 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...PREFRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING ACRS THE PANHANDLE
TOWARD THE BIG BEND THIS AFTN. SAT PICS SHOW THE COLDEST STORM TOPS
TRAILING BACK TO THE LOOP CURRENT OVER THE CENTRAL GOMEX BUT
STRUGGLING TO EXPAND MUCH BEYOND A 100NM BAND AS IT APPROACHES THE
NRN PENINSULA. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING RESPECTABLE MID LVL OMEGA/UPR
LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THE LINE...AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...VORTICITY FIELDS ARE QUITE WEAK...AS ARE THE PREFRONTAL
MID LVL LAPSE RATES (GENERALLY AOB 5C/KM).
TONIGHT...
STORM SYSTEM CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE FED BY A
100-120KT H30-H20 JET STREAK DIGGING ACRS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND
A 120-140KT JET LIFTING OUT OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO CRANK A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BY DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...DEEP MID/UPR
LVL RIDGING OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIB WILL DEFLECT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SYSTEM ENERGY TO THE N AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL FL. FURTHERMORE...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THRU THE
H85-H60 LYR THAT WILL ERODE THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
CENTRAL FL.
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ACRS THE N...HOWEVER...THE LIFTING NATURE OF
THE LEADING JET STREAK AND THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROF AXIS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY CONDUCIVE TO SIG OUTBREAKS OF STRONG/SVR WX. RADAR/SAT
TREND DOES NOT LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE MUCH MORE THAN A THIN LINE OF
SHRAS/TSRAS WITH WIND GUSTS BTWN 35-40KTS...WILL GO WITH SCT POPS
AREAWIDE...50PCT ACRS THE I-4 CORRIDOR...DECREASING TO 30PCT ARND
THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MIN TEMP FCST AS TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD. READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE M/U50S
ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION OF POST
FRONTAL COOL AIR ADVECTION...THE TREASURE COAST WILL HOLD IN THE
M/U60S AS THE CRUX OF THE COOL AIR WILL NOT HAVE MADE IT THAT FAR
SOUTH BY DAYBREAK.
SUNDAY...
PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL PUSH THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES RIDGE
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH THRU THE DAY. MODERATE H100-H85 FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING STEADILY FROM NW AT DAYBREAK...TO DUE N BY
MIDDAY...TO THE E/NE BY SUNSET. SHORT DURATION OF THE NRLY FLOW WILL
RETURN MAX TEMPS TO NEAR CLIMO AVG FOR EARLY JAN...U60S/L70S ALONG
AND N OF I-4 AND L/M70S TREASURE COAST AND THE NE SHORE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMING CYCLONIC AGAIN EARLY MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT REMAINING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE S/SW SHOULD
LIFT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO 1.3-1.5 INCH RANGE BY LATE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO MON. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROMOTE A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE IN THE DAY...WELL AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING/POP
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH GFS
FASTER/WETTER WITH SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHEREAS ECM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ANY SURFACE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING INLAND ACROSS THE SE STATES...AND THEREFORE
LOWER POPS LOCALLY. TRENDED TOWARD SLOWER ECM GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
ALSO CLOSER TO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT DID RAISE POPS
SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.
WARMER MINS TUE MORNING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TUE-FRI...
AS STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUE...LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. OWING TO THE SLOWER ECM
SCENARIO...TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE THE FOCUS OF BOTH MODELS FOR
BRINGING PRECIP THROUGH CWA. RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
TUESDAY POST FROPA...GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 70S.
COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A REINFORCING DRY FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER
30S/LOW 40S IN COLDER SPOTS.
MAY NEED TO TREND TEMPS DOWN FURTHER BEHIND SECONDARY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH DEEPER AMPLITUDE OF MID/UPPER
TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 12/00Z...SFC WND BCMG SW WITH OCNL G22-26KT...CHC MVFR SHRAS
ALL SITES THRU 12/06Z...SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS N OF KTIX-KISM AFT THRU
12/03Z. BTWN 12/06Z-12/09Z...SFC WND BCMG W/NW BTWN 8-12KTS...SLGT
CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KMLB-KLAL CONTG THRU 12/12Z. AFT 12/12Z SFC WND
BCMG N/NW 8-12KTS ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
THE LCL ATLC AND GENERATES A MODERATE TO FRESH SW BREEZE THAT WILL
VEER STEADILY TO THE W IN THE PREDAWN HRS...THEN TO THE NW BY
DAYBREAK. LCL WATERS WILL BE FETCH PROTECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE OFFSHORE BREEZE...LIMITING SEA HEIGHTS TO 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE...THOUGH SEAS UP TO 7FT OVER THE GULF STREAM ARE
EXPECTED N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE DUE
TO SHORT PD WIND CHOP.
SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL PUSH THE POST FRONTAL HI PRES
RIDGE ACRS THE SE CONUS AND INTO THE W ATLC THRU THE PD. SFC/BNDRY
LYR WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING FROM NW TO NE WHILE DIMINISHING TO
A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE. SHORT DURATION OF THE ENHANCED WIND
FIELD WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE
AROUND DAYBREAK...DECREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE
AROUND SUNSET.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW AOB 15 KT WILL VEER FROM
EAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL TROUGH.
TUE-WED...WINDS COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS ON MONDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS...BUT APPEARS THAT THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
15KTS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BECOMING NORTHWEST TUES EVE AND
NIGHT. SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS ON
WED...BACK WINDS TO THE WEST ON WED WITH THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT
BRINGING WINDS UP TO 20KTS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS 2-4FT ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE STRONGER
OFFSHORE COMPONENT INTO TUES WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6FT WELL OFFSHORE
NORTH OF THE CAPE BY LATE TUE INTO WED. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WILL BUILD TO
3-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-6 FEET OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BECOME SCATTERED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD FROPA TONIGHT WILL FORCE SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS TO VEER TO NW
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES RIDGE ON SUN THAT
WILL PUSH WINDS TO THE N/NE. A BRIEF BUT STRONG PERIOD OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO FALL TO 30-35PCT FOR 4-6HRS
ACRS THE INTERIOR N OF LAKE KISSIMMEE/LAKE MARIAN. HOWEVER...ERC
NUMBERS ARE LOW ENOUGH DUE TO RECENT PRECIP EVENTS THAT OVERALL FIRE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 58 66 49 77 / 50 0 10 30
MCO 60 71 50 79 / 50 0 10 20
MLB 63 70 55 79 / 40 0 10 20
VRB 65 71 55 80 / 30 10 10 20
LEE 56 69 49 77 / 50 0 10 30
SFB 59 70 51 78 / 50 0 10 20
ORL 60 71 52 78 / 50 0 10 20
FPR 66 72 55 80 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR
FORECAST THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WILL IS A DEEP AND SHARP LONGWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
STATES. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND WILL PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TROUGH IS "BOOKENDED" BY LONGWAVE
RIDGES OVER BOTH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BEING SHOVED SOUTH AND EAST
OUT OF THE PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS DOWN
FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS BRINGING WITH IT A WARM
AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE NOW COOL
SHELF WATERS OF THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
RESULTING IN AREAS/WIDESPREAD SEA FOG (SOME VERY DENSE) OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE FOG IS MOST PREVALENT TO THE NORTH OF SARASOTA
AND CONDITION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CAN PASS AND
CLEAR THE MORE HUMID AIRMASS AWAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE LOOK FOR
DEWPOINTS TO BE 3-5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SURFACE WATER
TEMPERATURES FOR A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEA FOG. AFTER LAST WEEKS
"COLD SNAP"...THE SHELF WATERS COOLED OFF CONSIDERABLY AND HAVE
ALLOWED THESE CONDITIONS TO BE MET. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT TO THE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE EVENING AND
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED THROUGH
THE DAY FROM AREAS TO THE WEST OF EGMONT KEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD AND FORCE
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW/MID LEVEL WAA ALONG
WITH DEEP SYNOPTIC FORCING/DCVA/QV CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS ARE SUPPORTING A SOLID MCS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS FROM GA TO
THE NORTHEAST GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING ALONG WITH A
FAVORABLE RRQ JET PLACEMENT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME INCREASING
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO OUR ZONES NORTH OF TAMPA
BAY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEFORE SUNSET WILL BE FOR THESE NORTHERN ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL NOT ARRIVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...BUT AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA. SOME OF
THE MORE RELIABLE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUCH AS THE HRRR
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT DO TO THE LACK OF
ACTIVITY THUS FAR WILL DECREASE THE POPS TO 20% FOR THESE
SOUTH-CENTRAL INLAND ZONES.
DURING THE EVENING HOURS THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES OVER THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FOR
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. THE CHANCES FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORM IS
FAIRLY HIGH AND HENCE SO ARE THE POPS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUTLOOKED CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTY FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS QUITE LIMITED THIS
FAR SOUTH AND WILL BE STARTING TO EXIT THE AREA. ALSO...HIGHLY
QUESTIONABLE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE TRULY ROOTED AT THE
SURFACE WITH THE FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. MORE
LIKELY THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY ELEVATED WHICH
WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE WIND THREAT. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE A THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS
SINCE THE OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT IS QUITE STRONG. DESPITE THE
LIMITING FACTORS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IN CASE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE
BASED PARCELS OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS
WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BE MAINLY
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE CONVECTION
WILL ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND LIKELY MORE BROKEN WITH TIME AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND JET DYNAMICS PIVOTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND END ALL RAIN DOWN TO EVEN FORT MYERS BY SUNRISE
ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY...A DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL FILL THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS
RISE ALOFT OF THE PENINSULA...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD INTO THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GULF.
SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE ONE "COOLER" NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING A THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR EVEN OUR MOST
NORTHERN ZONES...ALTHOUGH WITH THE HIGH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FROST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATE AT NIGHT FOR THE COLDEST RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR LOW TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
40S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 40S/MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH (POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER) BEGINS TO DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND APPROACH OUR REGION LATER MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF DO NOT FULLY AGREE ON THE DETAILS...BUT DO
AGREE ON AT LEAST SOME LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH AND RESULTING IN A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK FROM
THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO APPROACH OUR ZONES MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THE MORE NORTHWARD LOW TRACK IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TRUE NORTHERN GULF SST BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND LATER
FRONTAL ARRIVAL OF THE ECMWF. THIS SOLUTION KEEP US A BIT WARMER AND
RESULTS IN AN ARRIVAL TIME OF ANY ORGANIZED SHOWERS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS...WITH JUST SOME MINOR DISCONTINUITIES. THE FIRST REVOLVES
AROUND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME
FRAME...WHERE THE GFS IS FASTER THEN THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN...SO
WILL LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLOWER
SOLUTION. THE OTHER DISCONTINUITY RESIDES AROUND THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS AN IMPACT ON THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. AS A RESULT...WILL LEAN
THE FORECAST MID WEEK TOWARD THE CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTION. BY LATE
NEXT WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION ON THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE
DEGREE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN...BUT GIVEN THAT THERE IS
QUITE SOME TIME BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND...WILL JUST TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FORECAST ERROR.
AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CARRY RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE NEXT COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO EXPECT THAT RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
11/18Z-12/18Z...GUSTY WINDS WITH GENERALLY VFR CLOUDS BUT LCL MVFR
CIG REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE FOR THE OVER
NIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS...POSSIBLE SEA FOG DRIFTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS...AND VCNTY SHRA EXCEPT VCNTY TSRA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD FROM KSRQ NORTHWARD. DRY AIR FILTERS IN JUST AFTER DAY
BREAK WITH CLEARING AND NORTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST IN
ITS WAKE AND BRIEFLY REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS BEFORE DROPPING BACK
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE
IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT OR
TUESDAY. AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG TO THE NORTH OF SARASOTA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING ENDS THE THREAT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND USHER IN A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW ERC VALUES...NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ENOUGH
MOISTURE RETURN WILL REACH THE AREA BY MONDAY TO PREVENT ANY
CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
FOG POTENTIAL...AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE FOG
LIFTING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 59 71 52 73 / 60 0 0 10
FMY 65 76 55 79 / 40 0 0 10
GIF 58 73 50 77 / 60 0 0 10
SRQ 61 71 53 75 / 60 0 0 10
BKV 55 70 43 75 / 60 0 0 10
SPG 61 69 54 74 / 60 0 0 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL LEVY-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND LEVY-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1122 AM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG H85 JET AND LIFT WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET PLUS CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
AND GFS PLUS SREF MEAN INDICATED GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
0.7 OF AN INCH...BUT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.6 OF AN INCH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE NAM
DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO -1 TO -2 THIS AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE LOOP ALSO SHOWS SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS COULD INCREASE THE INSTABILITY THREAT FOR
AREAS MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN MIDLANDS...EAST OF COLUMBIA. THE NAM
AND GFS HAVE H85 WINDS NEAR 60 KNOTS. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BUT FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ALSO SUPPORT POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. 06Z HRRR INDICATES THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NOON TO 500 PM TIME FRAME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE SHOWER CHANCE WILL
DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE MORE
MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE
MODEL INCONSISTENCY. EXPECT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW DRY RIDGING DOMINATING
THURSDAY WITH YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LITTLE MOISTURE FRIDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH COOLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS DOMINATING THROUGH 12/00Z THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH WSR-88D
NETWORK SHOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN GA TOWARD AGS/DNL. WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED AT THE TAF
SITES WITH FURTHER INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY 16-18Z AT ALL SITES.
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR
IN MANY AREAS. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE CONCERN...THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 17-21Z. WITH THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AROUND 45-50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR BY 12/01Z AT
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL AND 12/02Z OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
77
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
426 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
306 PM CST
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE COMING WEEK...THE FIRST THING THAT BECOMES
APPARENT IS HOW CHALLENGING THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MIGHT
BE...WITH MULTIPLE POTENTIAL PERIODS OF NON DIURNAL TRENDS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF MORE SNOW APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SUNDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH PRONOUNCED WARM
ADVECTION ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING UNDER A 50 TO 60 KT
JET AT 850 MB. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DOWNSTATE
ILLINOIS HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS SNOWPACK...WHICH WOULD FURTHER AID IN
THE POTENTIAL WARMING OR AT LEAST NOT HINDER THE EFFECTS. FORECAST
MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE SOURCES...SO
HOPEFULLY THIS IS NOT JUST A WISHCAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC THEN PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN REMAIN
NEARLY FLAT IN POST FRONTAL FLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY MAY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS
THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION IS FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE LOW.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF A
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS IS THE MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...THE ECM/GEM ARE THE SLOWEST...AND
THE NAM SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. THE ACTUAL TRACK THAT
DEVELOPS WILL DETERMINE BOTH TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL POSSIBILITIES
TUESDAY...BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT STILL IS A BIT EARLY TO LEAN TOO
HEAVILY ON ANY SOLUTION. REGARDLESS OF THE FINAL TRACK...THIS
PERIOD APPEARS TO BRING THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY FOR A QUICK SHOT OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THE SURFACE LOW AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW THAT MODELS CANNOT AGREE ON
TUESDAY WILL EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF COLD NORTHWEST FLOW THAT DROPS OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR SOME AREAS AND KEEPS A LID ON THE DAYTIME WARMING
WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGHS TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WINDS QUICKLY TURN SOUTHWEST AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
PRODUCING ANOTHER POTENTIAL MILD WARMUP TO ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. IN REALITY THIS MAY END UP BEING LESS OF A
WARMUP IF THE FASTER MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TO BE BELIEVED AND THE NEXT
IN AN ENDLESS SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER
IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES FALL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING
PERIOD...THEN REMAIN FLAT OR ONLY GRADUALLY RISING DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. COLD NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS.
LENNING
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* MVFR CIGS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAY LOWER
TOWARDS 010-015 THIS EVENING.
* WEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING GUSTING 25-30 KT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
ONE BAND OF CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEPART TO THE EAST
TODAY BUT ANOTHER CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY CLEARING/SCATTERING AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THIS NEXT BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. EXPECT MVFR TO CONTINUE AS
A RESULT THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOWERING FROM CURRENT BASES NEAR
2000 FT DOWN INTO THE 1000-1500 FT RANGE THIS EVENING BEFORE
SCATTERING OCCURS LATER TONIGHT.
MDB
FROM 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON BROUGHT A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WINDS BECAME MORE
WESTERLY...AND HAVE GUSTED AT TIMES TO 20-22KT. SKIES HAVE
REMAINED POOR WITH CIGS ARND 1200-1500FT AGL. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON CIGS IMPROVING MUCH BEYOND CURRENT HEIGHTS...HOWEVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SOME THINNING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA/FAR WESTERN IL. ALTHOUGH THIS CLEARING DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT ALL OF THE WAY TO ORD/MDW. BASED ON THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR OR ERODING ALL TOGETHER...HAVE
HELD ONTO LOW END MVFR BKN DECK. FURTHER WEST AT RFD AND POSSIBLY
DPA...SKIES MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SCT AFT 02Z THIS EVENING AND LINGER
THRU MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING BKN YET AGAIN. WITHIN THIS WINDOW OF
SCT CIGS...SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT RFD/DPA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST ARND 8-10KT...THEN ARND
DAYBREAK SUN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY SUN. WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT EXPECTED
SUN...AND THIN CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CIRRUS
DECK...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT 18 TO 22KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SOME LOWERING THIS EVENING. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF SCATTERING/CLEARING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY...CHANCE OF IFR CIGS.
MONDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...SNOW AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
223 PM CST
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION. W/NW WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING...THEN SHOULD
BACK TO THE SOUTH DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO
QUICKLY PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. GALES TO 40 KT ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
PERIOD. DECIDED NOT TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING YET BECAUSE OF MODERATE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS MAINLY CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF
STABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS
WHICH COULD INHIBIT WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN MONDAY WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY TO AROUND 30 KT. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY THOUGH THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE LOW. CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTIONS
SUCH AS THE GEM/ECWMF. YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS DEEP
LOW WILL LIKELY BRING STRONG GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN...AND CANNOT
RULE OUT STORM FORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 316 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
A progressive upper level pattern is expected for much of the
upcoming week in the Midwest. The result will fairly quiet weather
with only minor chances of light precipitation and fluctuating
temperatures.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
Cooler temperatures are expected tonight with a light west wind.
However, readings will still be above typical values for mid-
January. Low level warm advection will kick in Sunday as low and
mid level wind field back to more of southwesterly flow. In
addition, the latest visible satellite and observations from
early today indicate that there are only a few areas of widespread
snow cover remaining west of the Illinois River and along the I-70
corridor. This will allow temperatures to climb well into the 45
to 50 degree range Sunday afternoon, which in turn will melt most
of the remaining snow.
Should see a return to mostly cloudy conditions this evening,
especially in northern and central IL. However, as the main upper
level trough over us now rapidly shifts to the east overnight,
subsidence should result in decreasing clouds late tonight. Only a
few clouds are expected Sunday, which will help warm things up.
An upper level trough, now approaching the western U.S. coast will
quickly move toward the Midwest by Monday. At the same time, an
upper low in the Baja region will lift out with the advancing
trough. This southern stream system may bring some light rain into
parts of southeast IL, but overall the forecast area will remain
dry on Monday but turn colder as a cold front moves through during
the morning.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday
The best chance for precipitation in the longer term looks to be
Tuesday as a fast moving Clipper system moves across northern
Illinois early in the day. Moisture will be rather sparse, so
light precipitation is expected during the day Tuesday. Low level
temperature fields could be warm enough for rain or a rain/snow
mix south of a Jacksonville-SPI-MTO-Marshall line Tuesday morning.
However, increasing northwest winds and cold advection during the
day Tuesday would be more conducive for light snow in nearly all
of the forecast area by afternoon, along with falling
temperatures. The exception may be areas south of I-70, so will
keep the potential for a mix of rain/snow there all day.
High pressure will settle in for Wednesday with clearing skies and
a return to chilly temperatures. The longer range models are in
generally good agreement by showing a building ridge in western
U.S. with a developing northwest flow over the Midwest by Friday.
This would result in a brief warm up for Thursday, followed by a
return to colder than normal temperatures for the end of the week.
There is some disagreement as to how far south any associated
precpitation may develop for late in the week. The GFS indicates a
clear cut lake effect snow situation, while the European model is
a bit stronger and colder with its upper level pattern - resulting
in light snow reaching central IL. Will keep the forecast dry for
now and wait for more consistent model runs to see if there is
enough low level moisture and forcing to mention late week light
snow.
Miller
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
1725z satellite imagery shows back edge of the cloud cover along a
KPIA to KSPI line. Based on timing tools, clearing will reach KDEC
and KBMI by 19z and KCMI by 20z. Once these clouds leave the TAF
sites, the next issue will be monitoring low clouds currently
sinking southeastward into central Iowa. Trajectory of this cloud
cover brings it across the northern half of the KILX CWA late this
afternoon and evening. HRRR has a very good handle on the clouds
initially, but then tends to re-develop low clouds on the back
side of the deck across Iowa tonight, resulting in a slow clearing
trend overnight. NAM forecast soundings seem a bit more reasonable
based on current satellite trends, so will lean toward this
solution. As such, have brought MVFR ceilings back into KPIA after
22z, then further east to KBMI and KCMI after 00z. Clouds will
then depart during the 06z to 08z time frame. Further south, think
cloud area will only graze the southernmost terminals, so will
keep skies mostly clear this evening at both KSPI and KDEC. Winds
will initially be from the west with gusts to between 20 and 25kt
this afternoon, then will diminish to less than 10kt overnight.
As high pressure shifts east of the area, winds will back to
southerly and gust to between 15 and 20kt by Sunday morning.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1211 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
334 AM CST
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
IN THE NEAR TERM...PRIMARY CONCERN IS WITH EXTENT AND DURATION OF
DENSE FOG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. WILL MAKE A DECISION BEFORE SENDING OUT ZONES ON
WHETHER TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU THE EARLY
MORNING...LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-57...OR RIDE WITH AN SPS.
COLD FROPA AND SHIFT TO WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN QUICK IMPROVEMENT
IN VSBY AS IS OCCURRING CURRENTLY IN NW IL. ANY LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CWA WILL BE OFF TO THE EAST BY MID MORNING...IF
NOT SOONER.
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...
A LOOK AT OBSERVATIONS AND FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE OVC
WELL BEHIND COLD FRONT BACK TO CENTRAL IA. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING
TREND IN SKY GRIDS...SO MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL LIKELY BE
SPENT CLOUDY TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED MODEST COOL
ADVECTION IN WAKE OF FRONT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MORNING
HIGHS...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
DESPITE CLOUD COVER. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND
THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR INVERSION AND DECOUPLING. HAVE
TRENDED LOWS A BIT COLDER/MID TEENS/FOR AREAS THAT RETAIN A DEEP
SNOW PACK WEST OF FOX VALLEY/RFD STILL AT 9 INCHES AS OF 06Z.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO WESTERN ONTARIO...THOUGH WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE FLOW WILL ENABLE
A QUICK WARM UP. 925 MB TEMPS WARMING TO +4 TO +6C ACROSS THE AREA
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S EAST OF A LINE
FROM UGN TO VYS...WITH U30S TO AROUND 40 TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE
WHERE SNOW PACK WILL BE SLOWER TO MELT. IN ADDITION...GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH GUSTS SOLIDLY IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE STRONGER MOMENTUM FURTHER ALOFT CAN BE
TAPPED INTO. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECTING IT TO BE A DRY FROPA...AS
GUIDANCE SHOWING ANY QPF SUCH AS THE NAM APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.
MONDAY...
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND QUICKER WITH SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM...SO SLIGHT POPS CURRENTLY IN GRIDS IN FAR SOUTHEAST
ON MONDAY MORNING MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IF TRENDS CONTINUE. IF
ANY PRECIP OCCURS AT THAT TIME...IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THERE WILL BE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER
ON STRENGTH AND TIMING DURING MONDAY. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE A MINOR
RISE IN TEMPS ON MONDAY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS...BUT IF FASTER GFS
VERIFIES...TEMPS WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THINGS DO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING MONDAY NIGHT. OPERATIONAL
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH GFS WHICH
HAS HAD THIS SYSTEM FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...IS MUCH FASTER WITH IT. THE
INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALL FEATURING THIS SYSTEM AS
WELL...THOUGH WITH DECENT SPREAD IN TRACK AND TIMING. DESPITE UPPER
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW BEING FAIRLY STOUT AS CURRENTLY MODELED...THESE
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEMS FROM THIS RANGE TYPICALLY SHOW LARGE RUN TO
RUN VARIANCE UNTIL GUIDANCE BETTER SAMPLES ASSOCIATED FEATURES. FOR
NOW HAVE FAVORED THE SLOWER ECMWF (WHICH FINALLY CAME INTO LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM) AND GGEM...WHICH RESULTS IN CHANCE
POPS INTO THE FAR NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
RANGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES
INDICATE P-TYPE WOULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW...BUT TRACK OF LOW AND 850
MB LOW...WILL BE KEY AS TO WHETHER WE SEE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN
DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
AFTER THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A COLD DAY WITH
THERMAL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HOWEVER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THEN FAVORS A
VERY DEEP SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ON
THURSDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP TO OR ABOVE FREEZING LIKELY IN THAT
SET-UP. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COLD AIR MASS/THOUGH NOT THAT TERRIBLY
COLD IN CONTEXT OF THIS WINTER SO FAR/TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK WITH
850 MB TEMPS IN THE MINUS TEENS CELSIUS IF NOT A BIT COLDER. HIGHS
MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* LOW END MVFR CIGS LINGERING THRU THIS AFTN...POSSIBLY A PERIOD
OF CIGS THINNING TO A SCT DECK...THEN BACK TO BKN LATE TONIGHT.
* WEST WINDS TO 16KT WITH GUSTS ARND 20-22KT THRU THIS AFTN. GUSTS
DIMINISH THIS EVE...THEN RETURN AGAIN LATE SUN MORNING AND COULD
BE GUSTING TO 28KT SUN MIDDAY/AFTN.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON BROUGHT A TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS EARLY
THIS MORNING. BEHING THIS BOUNDARY WINDS BECAME MORE
WESTERLY...AND HAVE GUSTED AT TIMES TO 20-22KT. SKIES HAVE
REMAINED POOR WITH CIGS ARND 1200-1500FT AGL. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF ON CIGS IMPROVING MUCH BEYOND CURRENT HEIGHTS...HOWEVER BASED
ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SOME THINNING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA/FAR WESTERN IL. ALTHOUGH THIS CLEARING DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WILL MAKE IT ALL OF THE WAY TO ORD/MDW. BASED ON THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS LIFTING TO VFR OR ERODING ALL TOGETHER...HAVE
HELD ONTO LOW END MVFR BKN DECK. FURTHER WEST AT RFD AND POSSIBLY
DPA...SKIES MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SCT AFT 02Z THIS EVENING AND LINGER
THRU MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING BKN YET AGAIN. WITHIN THIS WINDOW OF
SCT CIGS...SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP AT RFD/DPA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE WEST ARND 8-10KT...THEN ARND
DAYBREAK SUN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHERLY BY MIDDAY SUN. WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT EXPECTED
SUN...AND THIN CLOUD COVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CIRRUS
DECK...WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AT 18 TO 22KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KT IN THE AFTN HOURS.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CIGS CLEARING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHALLOW FOG REMAINING WEST OF ORD/MDW
TONIGHT.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LLWS POSSIBLE EARLY...CHANCE OF IFR CIGS.
MONDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CIGS.
TUESDAY...SNOW AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...VFR PROBABLE.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
155 AM CST
APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL ENTER ANOTHER BUSY PERIOD ON LAKE MICHIGAN
WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF GALES EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND ONLY
BRIEF TIME WINDOWS OF LIGHTER WINDS. A MODERATELY STRONG WEST WIND
WILL DEVELOP TODAY IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE REGION
WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THEY BACK TO SOUTHWEST. AN INTENSE AND FAST MOVING LOW
WILL RACE EAST ACROSS CANADA SUNDAY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTH
GALES...PROBABLY HIGHER END GALES OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE WINDS SHOULD EASE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY MONDAY MORNING THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. TRACK/TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING A FAIRLY STRONG
CLIPPER RACING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND POSSIBLE GALES IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GALES LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET BY THURSDAY.
IZZI
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 10 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...11 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1150 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
Primary forecast challenge today will be sky trends. 16z/10am
satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover across most of the
KILX CWA: however, clearing is beginning to work its way into
west-central Illinois. Based on timing tools, skies will partially
clear as far east as the I-55 corridor by early afternoon, then
further east to the Indiana border after 4 PM. The potential
complication with the clearing trend is another deck of low clouds
currently dropping southeastward into central Iowa. Timing tools
bring this cloud area into the Illinois River Valley by early
afternoon, then spread it eastward across the northern half of the
CWA through the evening hours. NAM forecast soundings have a good
handle on the clouds, although clouds appear to be moving a bit
faster than the model projects. End result will be a cloudy
morning giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies by early
afternoon, followed by increasing clouds from the northwest once
again by mid to late afternoon. Will send updated zones shortly.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
1725z satellite imagery shows back edge of the cloud cover along a
KPIA to KSPI line. Based on timing tools, clearing will reach KDEC
and KBMI by 19z and KCMI by 20z. Once these clouds leave the TAF
sites, the next issue will be monitoring low clouds currently
sinking southeastward into central Iowa. Trajectory of this cloud
cover brings it across the northern half of the KILX CWA late this
afternoon and evening. HRRR has a very good handle on the clouds
initially, but then tends to re-develop low clouds on the back
side of the deck across Iowa tonight, resulting in a slow clearing
trend overnight. NAM forecast soundings seem a bit more reasonable
based on current satellite trends, so will lean toward this
solution. As such, have brought MVFR ceilings back into KPIA after
22z, then further east to KBMI and KCMI after 00z. Clouds will
then depart during the 06z to 08z time frame. Further south, think
cloud area will only graze the southernmost terminals, so will
keep skies mostly clear this evening at both KSPI and KDEC. Winds
will initially be from the west with gusts to between 20 and 25kt
this afternoon, then will diminish to less than 10kt overnight.
As high pressure shifts east of the area, winds will back to
southerly and gust to between 15 and 20kt by Sunday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 240 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2014
Area of dense fog has been rolling eastward across the state early
this morning ahead of a cold front, which was just crossing the
Illinois/Iowa border at 2 am. The back edge of the fog is about
50-75 miles east of the front, so am most concerned east of the
Illinois River for the next few hours. The lingering rain was
mainly along the Indiana border and should be out of the forecast
area soon. Temperatures have remained quite mild overnight, with
upper 30s and lower 40s in many areas except the far northwest.
Main forecast concerns involve precipitation chances next week,
with periodic clipper systems zipping southeast. Also have some
concerns with the extent of cold air late next week, with
discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF models on how far south
the cold air will surge.
SHORT TERM...Today through Monday:
Will drop the dense fog advisory west of the Illinois River. HRRR
has been doing a reasonable job with the low visibilities, and the
threat will be more across the east. Will expand the advisory to
cover the remainder of the CWA east of I-57 for a few hours early
this morning, and extend the time a bit to around 7 am. Much of
the fog should be out of the area by that point, except perhaps
around Champaign and Danville.
Deep upper trough to quickly swing eastward today, followed by
another broadening trough early next week. Southerly winds to
25-30 mph and decent sunshine should boost temperatures into the
mid-upper 40s everywhere, with some lower 50s in the southwest and
southeast corners of the CWA. Cooler conditions on Monday as a
cold front passes with the trough. Surge of moisture pushing
northeast from the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the trough
has trended a bit further east with the latest model runs, and
associated rainfall may largely miss us. Have maintained some
30-40% PoP`s mainly in the morning across the eastern CWA, but
would not be surprised to see those continue to lower with
subsequent forecasts.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:
Active upper pattern on tap for the upcoming week, with concerns
for light precipitation and surge of cold air.
Regarding the precipitation, first clipper will be racing
southeast Monday night. The GFS is much more progressive and keeps
the precip to the north, while the ECMWF and GEM models favor a
more southern track and somewhat higher chances of precip. Have
raised PoP`s a bit from the initialization levels to favor these
latter models, and will mention a chance of snow on Tuesday, with
a mix in the afternoon in the central and south. Second and
stronger system will track more across the northern Great Lakes
region and have kept precip chances out of our area, but Thursday
and Thursday night will be rather windy.
Latest ECMWF continues its trend of plunging a lobe of cold air
much further south than the GFS late in the week, as the former
model digs the eastern U.S. trough much deeper. 850 mb temps of
-18C on the ECMWF would favor some teens for highs by Friday,
while the GFS`s trough is already well to our east. Have not gone
as cold as the ECMWF, but will continue with highs below freezing
in all areas on Friday.
Geelhart
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE MOVING A BIT
QUICKER THAN PROGGED EVEN BY FASTEST HRRR SOLUTION. HAVE
ACCORDINGLY MOVED SHRAS OUT A BIT FASTER WITH LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE. LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS ERODING WEDGE FRONT NOW
JUST WEST OF RIC METRO...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS, LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NOW
CROSSING INTO WESTERN EDGE OF TOR WATCH BOX...IN EFFECT FOR SE VA
/HAMPTON ROADS AND TIDEWATER/ AND NE NC UNTIL 01Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO WESTERN VA AT 20Z. AS EXPECTED, SEEING A NARROW LINE OF
FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN VA ATTM. PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS, MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WARM
SECTOR (ALONG WITH 50-70 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW/MIDLVL LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM) HAS PROVED SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN STRONG
60-80KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK (AKQ VWP SHOWING SW WINDS ~60KT
BETWEEN 1-2KFT UP). AS CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EAST, EXPECT DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR
RETURNS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
OFFSHORE AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS MILD AS SATURDAY...MAXIMA REMAIN ~1 S.D. ABOVE
NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SW ON MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARRELS EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM SW FLOW ALLOWS MAXIMA TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVER THE MIDWEST
MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. LEADING ENERGY WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF
STATES NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE LEADING ENERGY THAN OTHER MODELS...RESULTING IN
STRONGER SWLY FLOW AND RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH ALSO AFFECT PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
AND ATTENDANT WAVY FRONT OVER THE REGION. STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION
DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE
THE WEAKER GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE WEAK/WAVY FRONT OFFSHORE. TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF BASED ON RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND PV FIELDS
(BETTER PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES WRT TO UPPER LEVEL FIELDS). WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE-HIGH END CHANCE POPS TUES MORNING-AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIP PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUES NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
SHALLOW...AND WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...QPF AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE
GULF STATES TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SFC PATTERN PROBLEMS
ARISE...MAINLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
BOTH INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDS. LEADING
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDS...WITH A WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDS AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS LOOK TO
OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE FOR PRECIP WEDS. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO MODEL SPREAD WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ATTM. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED ACROSS THE FAR
NW ZONES.
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RIDGING NWD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURS-FRI...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST-GULF STATES FRI-SAT AS COLD AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION. PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE COLD AIR WILL PREVENT
THE EXTREME TEMPS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUES (UPPER 50S-LOW 60S) BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SAT
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S. MILD MON NIGHT (LOW-MID 40S)
BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LOWS (LOW-MID
30S) THRU THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTN/EVNG IS THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CDFNT. S WNDS HAVE INCREASED (20-25 KT) AND WILL BECOME GUSTY (30
KT) INTO THIS AFTN AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY EAST. TIMING OF
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PCPN ON RADAR HAS THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM MID AFTN THROUGH 00-03Z/12. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THUNDER AND
STRONGER WINDS(40-50 KT) ALONG THE LINE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
SOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DRYING AND IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 03-06Z/12...AND VFR CONDS FOR
SUN/MON...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. SLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAY AND 25-30 KT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BEFORE BACKING TO THE W LATE THIS
EVENING POST FRONTAL. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT...BUT ISOLATED WATER
SPOUTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
GENERALLY TO 5-8 FT (9-10 FT 20 NM OUT) THRU EARLY TONIGHT. BRIEF
DOWNTURN IN WINDS EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...BUT WLY WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BACK TO SCA SPEEDS
AND PERSIST THROUGH OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-8 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF STATES TONIGHT-SUN
MORNING...EXTENDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND SCA SPEEDS TO SUBSIDE. SCA HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-6 FT
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE SE COAST
SUN NIGHT-MON AS SLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE WATERS. GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER THE WATER MON NIGHT-TUES...WITH SLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
15 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 5+ FT IN THE NRN COASTAL WATERS.
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE WATERS MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING
TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS WED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCRSG S WNDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH TDA AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT HAS
PUSHED WATER LEVELS UP OVR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CHES BAY...MNLY
INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE (DORCHESTER TO SOMERSET COUNTIES) AND ALG
THE NORTHERN SHORE OF ACCOMACK COUNTY IN VA. XPCG WTR LEVELS FOR
HI TIDES THROUGH THIS AFTN TO BE ABT 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV
NRML...PTNTLLY REACHING 3 FT MLLW AT CAMBRIDGE (MINOR FLOODING 3.5
FT MLLW) AND BISHOPS HEAD MD (MINOR FLOODING 3.2 FT MLLW)...THEN
DEPARTURES AVGG 0.5 TO 1 FT ABV NRML FOR THE HIGH TIDE TNGT IN
THOSE AREAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE TIED AT SBY (1975).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
339 PM EST SAT JAN 11 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST LATE MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR MOSAIC INDICATING LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE MOVING A BIT
QUICKER THAN PROGGED EVEN BY FASTEST HRRR SOLUTION. HAVE
ACCORDINGLY MOVED SHRAS OUT A BIT FASTER WITH LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE. LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS ERODING WEDGE FRONT NOW
JUST WEST OF RIC METRO...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. VIA SPC MESOANALYSIS, LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION NOW
CROSSING INTO WESTERN EDGE OF TOR WATCH BOX...IN EFFECT FOR SE VA
/HAMPTON ROADS AND TIDEWATER/ AND NE NC UNTIL 01Z.
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS APPROACHIGN COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING
INTO WESTERN VA AT 20Z. AS EXPECTED, SEEING A NARROW LINE OF
FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN VA ATTM. PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS, MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THE WARM
SECTOR (ALONG WITH 50-70 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND LOW/MIDLVL LAPSE
RATES OF 6-7 C/KM) HAS PROVED SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN STRONG
60-80KT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE DECK (AKQ VWP SHOWING SW WINDS ~60KT
BETWEEN 1-2KFT UP). AS CONVECTIVE LINE ROLLS EAST, EXPECT DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR
RETURNS TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION DAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
OFFSHORE AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BRINGS A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WHILE NOT
NEARLY AS MILD AS SATURDAY...MAXIMA REMAIN ~1 S.D. ABOVE
NORMAL...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SW ON MONDAY...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BARRELS EASTWARD FROM
THE PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WARM SW FLOW ALLOWS MAXIMA TO
WARM BACK INTO THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
AMPLIFIED...BUT PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD OVER THE MIDWEST
MON NIGHT-TUES MORNING AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. LEADING ENERGY WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF
STATES NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TUES. ECMWF REMAINS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE LEADING ENERGY THAN OTHER MODELS...RESULTING IN
STRONGER SWLY FLOW AND RESULTANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH ALSO AFFECT PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE
AND ATTENDANT WAVY FRONT OVER THE REGION. STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION
DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WHILE
THE WEAKER GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE WEAK/WAVY FRONT OFFSHORE. TRENDED
FORECAST TOWARD ECMWF BASED ON RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND PV FIELDS
(BETTER PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES WRT TO UPPER LEVEL FIELDS). WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE-HIGH END CHANCE POPS TUES MORNING-AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIP PUSHING OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUES NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER
SHALLOW...AND WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...QPF AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
MEANWHILE...ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE
GULF STATES TUES INTO TUES NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SFC PATTERN PROBLEMS
ARISE...MAINLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW. HOWEVER...MODELS
BOTH INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDS. LEADING
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL LIFT FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WEDS...WITH A WAVE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDS AFTERNOON. STRONG DYNAMICS LOOK TO
OVERCOME LIMITED MOISTURE FOR PRECIP WEDS. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE
DUE TO MODEL SPREAD WILL RESULT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE-LOW END CHANCE
POPS ATTM. RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WED ACROSS THE FAR
NW ZONES.
TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WED NIGHT-THURS MORNING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...RIDGING NWD INTO THE LOCAL
AREA. NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THURS-FRI...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRI. COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST-GULF STATES FRI-SAT AS COLD AIR
RETURNS TO THE REGION. PACIFIC ORIGIN OF THE COLD AIR WILL PREVENT
THE EXTREME TEMPS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL TUES (UPPER 50S-LOW 60S) BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS SAT
EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S. MILD MON NIGHT (LOW-MID 40S)
BEFORE RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LOWS (LOW-MID
30S) THRU THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE AFTN/EVNG IS THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CDFNT. S WNDS HAVE INCREASED (20-25 KT) AND WILL BECOME GUSTY (30
KT) INTO THIS AFTN AS THE LINE MAKES ITS WAY EAST. TIMING OF
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF PCPN ON RADAR HAS THE PRECIP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM MID AFTN THROUGH 00-03Z/12. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE DUE TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS OVER NE NC AND SE VA. THUNDER AND
STRONGER WINDS(40-50 KT) ALONG THE LINE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE ENTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
SOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
DRYING AND IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED AFTER 03-06Z/12...AND VFR CONDS FOR
SUN/MON...THEN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN MON NIGHT INTO
TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SSE WNDS PREVAIL OVR THE WTRS ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO INCRS THIS
MRNG INTO THIS AFTN AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT FM THE W. WNDS AT 925
MB INCRS TO ABT 50-60KT FM ABT 18-21Z/11...HWVR WAA AND COLD WTRS
WILL LMT TRANSFER OF THOSE HIGHER SPDS TO THE WTR. SPDS INCRSG TO
20 TO 30 KT OVR THE WTRS BY THIS AFTN...KEEPING GUSTS BLO GALES
(34 KT) FOR NOW...HWVR WOULD NOT RULE OUT A VERY SHORT PD LT THIS
AFTN/EVE...ESP ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION...FOR GUSTS ABV GALES.
WAVES ON THE BAY TO BUILD TO 3-5 FT...SEAS TO 6-10 FT THIS AFTN
AND CONT INTO THE E.
THE CDFNT PUSHES OFF THE CST AND E OF THE WTRS AFT MDNGT...SWINGING
THE WNDS TO W. SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD E OVR SE CONUS TNGT-
SUN...EXTENDING NWD OVER THE LOCAL AREA WTRS BY LT SUN MRNG/AFTN.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDSPEEDS TO DIMINISH AND SEAS/WAVES TO SUBSIDE.
AS HI PRES PUSHES OFF THE SE CST SUN NGT...FLO RETURNS TO THE S.
UNSETTLED CONDS WILL RETURN TO THE WTRS TUE-WED.
SCAS RMNG UP FOR ALL WTRS THROUGH LT TNGT/SUN MRNG ON THE
RIVERS/BAY AND SND...AND ON THE OCN THROUGH SUN AFTN.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
INCRSG S WNDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH TDA AHD OF APPROACHING CDFNT HAS
PUSHED WATER LEVELS UP OVR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CHES BAY...MNLY
INVOF LWR MD ERN SHORE (DORCHESTER TO SOMERSET COUNTIES) AND ALG
THE NORTHERN SHORE OF ACCOMACK COUNTY IN VA. XPCG WTR LEVELS FOR
HI TIDES LATE THIS MRNG THROUGH THIS AFTN TO BE ABT 1 TO 1.5 FT
ABV NRML...PTNTLLY REACHING 3 FT MLLW AT CAMBRIDGE (MINOR FLOODING
3.5 FT MLLW) AND BISHOPS HEAD MD (MINOR FLOODING 3.2 FT
MLLW)...THEN DEPARTURES AVGG 0.5 TO 1 FT ABV NRML FOR THE HIGH
TIDE TNGT IN THOSE AREAS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE TIED AT SBY (1975).
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...ALB/SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
908 AM MST SAT JAN 11 2014
.UPDATE...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING...THEREFORE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE. INSPECTION OF MESOSCALE MODELS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND SSEO...CONFIRM THE FORECAST THINKING OF STRONG WINDS
FOR LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON WHERE HIGHLIGHTS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE. FURTHERMORE...THESE MODELS PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
ON THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE RED LODGE...AND SHOW SOME HINTS OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY BRINGING STRONGER WINDS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CARBON COUNTY. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN FOR STRONG WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE FORT SMITH AREA AND LOCATIONS IN THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS THERE BASED ON MAGNITUDE
OF 700 MB WINDS COMING ACROSS AND INDICATIONS FROM HIGH RES
MODELS.
CHURCH
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
WINDS. INHERITED A WIND ADVISORY FOR GAP FLOW AREAS AND BIG
TIMBER...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR RED LODGE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES...AND
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR WHEATLAND AND JUDITH GAP. PATTERN FEATURES A
JET MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY USHERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE
AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH SUN WHEN ANOTHER JET MOVES IN FROM BC AND
THE PACIFIC NW. THIS FAST FLOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
THE REGION WITH 700 MB WINDS RANGING FROM 50 TO 75 KT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE FORECAST TO GET CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE ON SUN MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SUN ALSO LOOKED LIKE THE
PERIOD WITH THE BEST MIXING POTENTIAL BASED ON BUFKIT...BUT LIFT
FROM THE DYNAMICS WILL HINDER THE MIXING DOWN OF THE STRONGEST
WINDS. REGARDING THE SURFACE GRADIENT...IT LOOKED THE MOST
SUPPORTIVE FOR GAP WINDS THIS MORNING...THEN TURNED MORE SW TO NE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE GRADIENT ORIENTATION DID NOT SUPPORT STRONG
WINDS IN WHEATLAND COUNTY...HOWEVER THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
MIXING FOR THIS AREA TO REACH HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT TIMES. OPTED
TO GO WITH A HIGH-END WIND ADVISORY FOR THE GAP AREAS AND BIG
TIMBER. THIS CAN ALWAYS BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN LATER PERIODS
IF NEEDED. WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR JUDITH GAP AND
WHEATLAND COUNTY. REGARDING RED LODGE...NOT ALL THE FACTORS WERE
PRESENT FOR A MOUNTAIN WAVE...HOWEVER THERE WAS GOOD
SUBSIDENCE...MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY AND STRONG WIND. THUS WILL GO
WITH A WARNING THERE AND EMPHASIZE STRONG WIND IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE RED LODGE.
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BASED ON LATEST
MODEL MOISTURE FIELDS. WILL NOT MENTION FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES WERE REMAINING CLOSE TO FREEZING AND THE SSEO DID
NOT SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN
THE MOUNTAINS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE E TODAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES. A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY AND A SECOND FRONT ON
SUN WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION. MADE ONLY SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TODAY TO TREND BETTER FROM YESTERDAY/S
READINGS. ARTHUR
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ENSURING WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IN PLACE THROUGHTHE
EXTENDED WITH JET STREAM SUPPORT STRONGEST ON MONDAY BUT STILL
POTENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE WANING LATER IN THE WEEK.
FOR MONDAY ORIENTATION OF THE JET IS NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS
PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED WHICH IS EVIDENT IN WEAKER SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES. BUFKIT DATA SHOWS A LOT MORE ASCENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON SO IT MAY BE TOUGH FOR VERY HIGH WINDS TO MATERIALIZE.
HOWEVER THE 850 MB WINDS CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 65 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE REGION SO FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE TO CHANGE VERY MUCH
FOR VERY STRONG WINDS TO MATERIALIZE.
TUESDAY FAVORS GAP FLOW AREAS AND LESS ON THE PLAINS WITH PRESSURE
FALLS BUT STILL MIXED GUSTS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND.
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED BECAUSE SOME STRONGER PRESSURE
RISES MATERIALIZE AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN. 700MB WINDS ARE VERY STRONG ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PRESSURE
RISES TO SUPPORT THE WINDS MIXING DOWN. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HAVE A
SLACKENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH INCREASING WINDS AGAIN FOR
SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK BEST ON MONDAY DUE TO JET SUPPORT AND
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BUT DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCES WILL LIMIT PRECIP
AMOUNTS IN WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA. LOOKS DRIER FOR MOST OF THE WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH EROSION OF THE SNOWPACK BECOMING CRITICAL TO NIGHTTIME
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK. BORSUM
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 60KTS TODAY AT KLVM. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 50KTS FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AT KBIL THIS AFTERNOON TOO WITH SOME GUSTS TO
25KTS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE
PRODUCING SNOWFALL OVER THE WEST FACING SLOPES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. TWH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 034/043 032/048 035/046 030/050 026/039 023/041
2/J 21/N 02/W 31/N 11/N 11/N 11/B
LVM 048 033/040 033/045 035/045 033/048 030/039 031/042
2/W 32/W 22/W 21/N 11/N 21/N 11/B
HDN 043 027/040 024/044 027/041 023/047 019/035 013/036
2/J 22/W 23/W 31/N 11/N 11/B 11/B
MLS 041 028/035 021/040 025/038 023/044 019/032 013/033
2/J 32/W 24/W 32/J 01/N 11/N 11/B
4BQ 043 028/036 024/043 026/040 024/048 021/034 015/036
2/J 22/W 24/W 32/J 01/N 11/N 11/B
BHK 043 029/032 017/040 024/037 020/043 018/030 012/034
1/E 32/J 24/W 22/J 01/N 11/N 11/B
SHR 048 025/038 021/043 026/044 023/050 020/038 017/042
0/N 22/W 22/W 31/N 11/U 11/B 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 29-34-35-38-39-42-56-57.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
41-65-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 56.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
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