Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
915 AM PST WED JAN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:06 AM PST WEDNESDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOW
CLOUDS. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS NO LONGER REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AT THIS HOUR...HOWEVER DID MOVE THROUGH THAT REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS ALSO IMPACTING THE CENTRAL COAST AND HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS HOWEVER HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 30S.
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AREA WIDE AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING DECENT ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST WEDNESDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. IN FACT, SFO ENDED UP REPORTING A TRACE OF RAINFALL CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT MARKING THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT 30 DAYS THAT ANY RAIN
HAS BEEN REPORTED THERE. WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBS ALSO SHOWS SOME
POCKETS OF FOG ALONG WITH A REPORT DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE
AROUND SANTA ROSA. IN MANY RESPECTS MANY OF THE OBS SEEM LIKE
WHAT WE WOULD USUALLY SEE DURING EARLY SUMMER "JUNE GLOOM"
MORNINGS AND NOT WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT FOR JANUARY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE -- LOOK FOR 50S
TO LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH 60S INLAND.
A SYSTEM FROM THE PACNW WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BROUGHT THE FAR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
EXTENT OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH BAY FOR THURSDAY. THAT LOOK
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AS THE LOW WILL SIMPLY BE TOO FAR TO THE
EAST. RAIN CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS INCREASE AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO OUR CWA. SOME INLAND SPOTS
WILL RETURN BACK TO THE LOWER 70S. COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT
WARM AS MUCH DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
OVER THE WEEKEND THE STRONGEST PACIFIC SYSTEM OF THE WEEK MOVES TO
THE PACNW/BC COASTLINE. PROGS FOR SATURDAY HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY
NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE FAR
SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE NORTH BAY AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR SOUTH AS SANTA CRUZ COUNTY. POPS WERE INCREASE INTO THE HIGH
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NAPA/SONOMA AND GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SF
BAY DOWN TO SANTA CRUZ. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOW AND RAIN
DURATION IS EXPECTED TO JUST BE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
QUICKLY ADVANCES. AROUND A TENTH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
BAY AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS AROUND SF INTO SAN MATEO COUNTY.
AND AS QUICKLY AS THE RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE, THEY WILL END AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OFF THE COAST REBUILDS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING NEARLY TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE COLD LOW REPOSITIONS ITSELF BACK NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH THE
RIDGE HERE EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS NORTH THROUGH
BC, YUKON TERRITORY AND ALASKA. AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE FLOW
WILL RETURN TO BEING OFFSHORE AND 850MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE UP TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. RECORD HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE
HIT NEXT WEEK -- POSSIBLY AT MANY SPOTS.
MJO FORECAST SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
MAKING IT THAT MUCH HARDER FOR THE RIDGE TO BE UNDERCUT GOING INTO
AT LEAST THE 20TH OF JANUARY.
&&
.CLIMATE...IN A TYPICAL JANUARY, SAN FRANCISCO WOULD HAVE HIGHS 60
OR ABOVE 7 TIMES. WE HAVE ALREADY EQUALED THAT NUMBER FOR THE
MONTH.
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE SIMILAR FOR DECEMBER, JANUARY, AND
FEBRUARY FOR MOST OF OUR AREA. BY MARCH, THE EXPECTED AMOUNT
DECREASES BY ABOUT 25 PERCENT. IN APRIL WE USUALLY RECEIVE ONLY 5
TO 10 PERCENT OF OUR RAIN FOR THE YEAR. WE HAVE NOW GONE THROUGH
WHAT WOULD USUALLY BE OVER 40% OF OUR RAINFALL FOR THE WATER YEAR.
FOR THE WATER YEAR, BEN LOMOND HAS ONLY PICKED UP 2.39" WHICH IS
JUST 11 PERCENT OF NORMAL TO DATE. IN ORDER TO GET TO 100% BY THE END
OF JUNE, 48.09" WILL NEED TO FALL (OR MORE THAN 0.43" WOULD NEED TO
FALL EVERY DAY UNTIL THE END OF APRIL.)
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 3:42 AM PST WEDNESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CA COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT
TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW COASTAL LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. LOW MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE
PRESENT...MAINLY THROUGH THE SF BAY AREA...THROUGH 21Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE HRRR AND WRF ARE THE ONLY SHORT TERM MODELS
HANDLING THE LOW CLOUDS CORRECTLY...WITH VERY PATCHY CIGS OVER THE
MONTEREY BAY AND NORTH BAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
CLOUDINESS...LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS EARLY AS 02Z
THURSDAY. AGAIN VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO TIMING.
VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
21Z...LOW CONFIDENCE. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z THURSDAY.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN EARLY RETURN OF MVFR CIGS AROUND 02Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: RILEY
CLIMATE: BELL
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
146 PM PST TUE JAN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 01:27 PM PST TUESDAY...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. ACROSS THE BAY AREA...AN INCREASE IN
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS (BETWEEN 3-5KFT) CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND AS
WELL. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GENERALLY PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WOULD BRING A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IF IT DOES OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. A
RIDGE BUILDS BACK BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AND BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE BAY AREA.
FURTHER SOUTH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND SUPPORT SAYING TO THE NORTH. OVERALL...THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THESE WEAK SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN REBUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST COAST SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER WARMING TREND AND ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN NEAR THE MONTEREY BAY APPROACHING THE LOWER
70S.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEDIUM TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATING
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM...WRF...AND HRRR ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MARINE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN 03 AND
06Z WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH MAY BE IMPACTED AN HOUR LATER THAN
THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
22Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
$$
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: RILEY
CLIMATE: BELL/RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
944 AM PST TUE JAN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:25 AM PST TUESDAY...HAVE MADE A FEW UPDATES
TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BY A
DEGREE OR SO...MAINLY INLAND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON VIS
SAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO IMPACT
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS WELL. WILL TAKE
A LOOK AT THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:00 AM PST TUESDAY...FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE HAS SWITCHED TO MORE ONSHORE AND WE ARE EVEN SEEING A FEW
REPORTS OF PATCHY FOG AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY/SALINAS VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHERE WE WERE 24
HOURS AGO, ALTHOUGH WITH DEW POINTS HIGHER, A FAIR NUMBER OF SPOTS
ARE AT LEAST 1-3 DEGREES WARMER. AFTER HITTING 30S AND 40S THIS
MORNING, LOOK FOR CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY ALTHOUGH A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO KEEP SPOTS AT THE COAST
A BIT COOLER. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AT THE COAST WITH 60S
TO LOWER 70S INLAND. CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY ALTHOUGH A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP ANOTHER 1-2C.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING A SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN FROM THE NW AND
APPROACH NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
DIVERTED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, HOWEVER FAR SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF MOISTURE COULD END UP BRUSHING OUR CWA. ABOUT 15 PERCENT OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING RAIN DOWN AS FAR SOUTH AS SFO, SO KEPT A
MENTION OF RAIN GOING FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. ANY AMOUNTS THAT DO
FALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FOR
NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL THEN
ADVANCE TO THE PACNW/NORCAL COAST FOR SATURDAY. THIS ONE HAS A
BETTER SHOT THAN THE ONE ON THURSDAY AS ITS TRAJECTORY IS MORE
FROM THE NW AND NOT SIMPLY AN INSIDE SLIDER FROM THE NORTH. ABOUT
40% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING RAIN INTO THE CWA SO POPS WERE
SLIGHTLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED. AGAIN, IF ANY RAIN FALLS, IT
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT. A TENTH LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER END OF THE
RANGE EVEN FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS VENADO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
SPOTS SUCH AS SAN FRANCISCO AND HALF MOON BAY EVEN SAW A FEW TIPS
OF THE BUCKET.
JUST AS QUICKLY AS OUR RAIN CHANCES COME, THEY WILL COME TO AN END
AS THE EASTPAC/WEST COAST RIDGE REBUILDS MUCH STRONGER AND DIVERTS
ALL RAINFALL WELL TO OUR NORTH. IN FACT, MOST OF NEXT WORK WEEK
LOOKS DRY ALL OF THE WAY THROUGH THE STATE OF OREGON AND MUCH OF
WASHINGTON.
WORTH NOTING THAT THE LONG RANGE (16 DAY) OPERATIONAL GFS IS
SHOWING MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AFTER THE 20TH OF JANUARY. 0Z
RUN INDICATES MORE THAN 2" POSSIBLE WITH THE 06Z INDICATING HALF
THAT VALUE.
&&
.CLIMATE...SAN FRANCISCO HAS REPORTED MEASURABLE RAINFALL ONLY 6
DAYS SO FAR FOR THE WATER YEAR (GOING BACK TO JULY 1, 2013). THAT TIES
THE RECORD FOR FEWEST NUMBER OF DATES.
WITH JUST 1.30" OF RAIN SO FAR FOR THE CURRENT WATER YEAR, SANTA
CRUZ IS HAVING ITS DRIEST START ON RECORD. IN A TYPICAL YEAR,
12.55" WOULD ALREADY BE RECORDED.
ON AN AVERAGE JANUARY DAY, MONTEREY WOULD RECEIVE 0.14" OF RAIN,
BEN LOMOND 0.32", HALF MOON BAY 0.18", AND 0.27" IN CLOVERDALE.
FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...ROSSBY WAVE THEORY SUGGESTS WHEN A
STRONG RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST COAST AN EQUALLY STRONG
TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF AMERICA. THUS
WHILE THE BAY AREA AND MOST OF CALIFORNIA HAVE SEEN A WARM AND
MILD JANUARY MUCH OF THE EAST COAST HAS BEEN BRUTALLY COLD AND
SNOWY. RELIABLE CLIMATE DATA RECORDS IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO GO
ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1850 WHILE MADISON WISCONSIN HAS CLIMATE
RECORDS BACK TO 1871. ON JANUARY 6TH 1887 DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO
SET A RECORD HIGH OF 73 DEGREES THAT STILL STANDS TODAY WHILE ON
JANUARY 7TH 1887 MADISON WISCONSIN FELL TO -29 DEGREES WHICH STILL
REMAINS A RECORD LOW. IN JANUARY OF 1887 DOWNTOWN SF RECEIVED 1.90
INCHES OF RAIN WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT FALLING IN A TWO DAY WINDOW
FROM JANUARY 18-19. LITTLE OR NO RAIN FELL THE REST OF THE MONTH.
SO WHAT HAPPENED IN FEBRUARY OF 1887 IN DOWNTOWN SF? 9.24 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL (ALONG WITH 3.7 INCHES OF SNOW ON FEB 5TH). NOT HARD
SCIENCE HERE FOLKS BUT STILL HOPE AS MANY OF OUR READERS ARE
ACHING FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 9:40 AM PST TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEDIUM TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS INDICATING
THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM...WRF...AND HRRR ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MARINE LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN 03 AND
06Z WEDNESDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. AGAIN LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THE APPROACH MAY BE IMPACTED AN HOUR LATER THAN
THE TERMINAL.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
22Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CIGS
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
$$
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TDAY...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RGASS
AVIATION: RILEY
CLIMATE: BELL/RWW
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, TWITTER, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.SANFRANCISCOBAYAREA.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
954 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OUT AS WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND
CONTINUED MILD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING HAS
INDUCED CLOUD COVER FROM MID LVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS MUCH
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND ERN NY. AS THE WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THIS IS LIKELY THE BULK OF THE
FANFARE WE WILL SEE FROM IT. AM MONITORING A VERY WEAK BAND OF
ECHOS FROM KBGM WSR-88D DATA THAT SUGGEST POSSIBLE LIGHT FLURRY
ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND WITH DWPTS APPROACHING 0F...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
SOME OF THESE FLURRIES SPILL INTO CT OR SRN MA BEFORE DISSIPATION.
AT THIS POINT...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEYOND
THESE FEATURES ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DWPTS WERE MADE TO
BRING THEM CLOSER TO EXPECTED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL INVOKE BROAD SCALE ASCENT OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE /CONTINENTAL IN NATURE/ RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT /IN ADDITION TO OCEAN-EFFECT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WATERS/. HRRR IS HINTING AT POSSIBLE FLURRIES BUT IT
APPEARS THE BETTER ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH WITH MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N FROM THE SE CONUS. CONSIDERING
W WINDS /BREEZY ALONG THE SHORES AND ADJACENT WATERS/ AND EXPECTED
PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATING A SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE /ALBEIT STILL A LITTLE BRISK OVER THE WATERS AND ADJACENT
SHORES/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLIDES E ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN S/SWLY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF A WARMER-MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND S
WINDS...LOWS WILL RANGE AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-TEENS /WARMER ALONG
THE SHORES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND
* LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
A PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
POLAR VORTEX RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE LACK OF ANY HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS.
08/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE MILD WEATHER
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFS AND HOLDS ON TO THE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE
TOP FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY. WEST
COAST RIDGE AND MIDWEST TROUGH SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE.
MODELS ARE STILL FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AS
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME
LIGHT QPF IS GENERATED FRI MORNING WHICH MAY MEAN SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES FOR OUR REGION. WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET...WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVER OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
TEMPERATURES BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE ENHANCED.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
MONDAY...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT COOLER...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
00Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR EXCEPT SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS OVER KBID/KACK WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. W WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE E SHORELINE TERMINALS
INITIALLY. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL DECKS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES FOR N CT TERMINALS...CLEARING INTO THURSDAY...SKC WITH
LIGHT SW FLOW BECOMING VARIABLE INTO EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN SNOW.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED INTERIOR FZRA POSSIBLE. LOWERING TO
IFR LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS BUT ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT. OCEAN-
EFFECT CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM. BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KTS DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH LIGHTER
FLOW TO THE SOUTH...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TO 10-15
FT OVER OPEN WATERS. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LIKELY. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND
FOG LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
701 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OUT AS WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND
CONTINUED MILD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. DID TWEAK NEAR-TERM
CONDITIONS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL INVOKE BROADSCALE ASCENT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE /CONTINENTAL IN NATURE/ RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT /IN ADDITION TO OCEAN-EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS
THE WATERS/. HRRR IS HINTING AT POSSIBLE FLURRIES BUT IT APPEARS
THE BETTER ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N FROM THE SE CONUS. CONSIDERING
W WINDS /BREEZY ALONG THE SHORES AND ADJACENT WATERS/ AND EXPECTED
PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATING A SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE /ALBEIT STILL A LITTLE BRISK OVER THE WATERS AND ADJACENT
SHORES/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLIDES E ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN S/SWLY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF A WARMER-MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND S
WINDS...LOWS WILL RANGE AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-TEENS /WARMER ALONG
THE SHORES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND
* LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
A PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
POLAR VORTEX RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE LACK OF ANY HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS.
08/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE MILD WEATHER
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFS AND HOLDS ON TO THE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE
TOP FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY. WEST
COAST RIDGE AND MIDWEST TROUGH SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE.
MODELS ARE STILL FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AS
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME
LIGHT QPF IS GENERATED FRI MORNING WHICH MAY MEAN SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES FOR OUR REGION. WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET...WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVER OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
TEMPERATURES BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE ENHANCED.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
MONDAY...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT COOLER...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
00Z UPDATE...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR EXCEPT SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS OVER KBID/KACK WHICH WILL DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. W WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE E SHORELINE TERMINALS
INITIALLY. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SCT-BKN MID-LEVEL DECKS OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES FOR N CT TERMINALS...CLEARING INTO THURSDAY...SKC WITH
LIGHT SW FLOW BECOMING VARIABLE INTO EVENING. INCREASING CLOUDS
AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN SNOW.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED INTERIOR FZRA POSSIBLE. LOWERING TO
IFR LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS BUT ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT. OCEAN-
EFFECT CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM. BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KTS DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH LIGHTER
FLOW TO THE SOUTH...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TO 10-15
FT OVER OPEN WATERS. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LIKELY. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND
FOG LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/BELK
MARINE...SIPPRELL/BELK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1235 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. PERSISTENT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE -10 TO -25
DEGREE RANGE.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
AROUND 10 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
THE REGION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED WEST-EAST
ORIENTED VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTIES. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE
BAND HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE
SNOW BAND IS NOW NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND STILLWATER
RESERVOIR...AFFECTING THE DEEP WOODS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE 12Z RUN OF LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE LATEST
12Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST THE BAND TO SLOWLY MOVE AND
SHIFT DURING THE DAY. EVENTUALLY...IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
SOUTH TOWARDS THE OLD FORGE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.
WE ARE STILL CONFIDENT FOR THE SNOW BAND TO EXTEND THROUGH
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TODAY AS A
MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION FROM LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY OCCURS. LOCAL
CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES WITHIN AN EXTREME LAKE-AIR INSTABILITY
REGIME SUCH AS THIS ONE...THE INLAND EXTENT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
UNTIL A MULTI- LAKE CONNECTION IS ESTABLISHED. WE CUT BACK
SLIGHTLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTING 12 TO 30 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS
MAINLY FROM AROUND OLD FORGE AND ALONG ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF NEAR 30 INCHES WILL PROBABLY WIND UP
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE FOREST BETWEEN STILLWATER RESERVOIR AND
THE ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY BORDER.
OUTSIDE OF THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR LIMITED
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST
DURING THE TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THUS WILL CONTINUE ALL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS RATHER THAN SINGLE DIGITS.
IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AGAIN WITH THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM OLD FORGE AND
ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL INLAND
EXTENT TOOL FROM CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATING THE SNOW BAND MAY EVEN
EXTEND WELL EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL THE WAY TO INDIAN LAKE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPPING INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER TO AROUND 1 KM.
WILL MENTION JUST CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LEFTOVER WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WIND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE TIME.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH TEMPS LIKELY WARM ENOUGH FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IF ANY
PCPN OCCURS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THIS
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. POPS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY AND
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE LOWS
LIKELY OCCURRING EARLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC OR POLAR
ORIGIN...SO IT WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ONLY
FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW SINCE IT IS STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH AGAIN FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE OCCASIONAL BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 KFT
REMAINS TIED TO THE TERRAIN. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LAKE-EFFECT
CLOUDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THESE CLOUDS WEST OF THE TAF SITES. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE A STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WIND BEING INDUCED BY
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO NUDGE NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 12-18 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT KALB WHERE TERRAIN CHANNELING MAY ALLOW GUSTS
TO REACH 35 KNOTS AT TIMES.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT AS NIGHTTIME MIXING IS
DEPRESSED. REGARDLESS...WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS.
OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT WEDNESDAY...SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES TO END THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A
WESTERLY WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS...AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER ICE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1158 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF NOON EST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. PERSISTENT AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE -10 TO -25
DEGREE RANGE.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
AROUND 10 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
THE REGION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED WEST-EAST
ORIENTED VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTIES. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE
BAND HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE
SNOW BAND IS NOW NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND STILLWATER
RESERVOIR...AFFECTING THE DEEP WOODS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE 12Z RUN OF LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE LATEST
12Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST THE BAND TO SLOWLY MOVE AND
SHIFT DURING THE DAY. EVENTUALLY...IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
SOUTH TOWARDS THE OLD FORGE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.
WE ARE STILL CONFIDENT FOR THE SNOW BAND TO EXTEND THROUGH
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TODAY AS A
MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION FROM LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY OCCURS. LOCAL
CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES WITHIN AN EXTREME LAKE-AIR INSTABILITY
REGIME SUCH AS THIS ONE...THE INLAND EXTENT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
UNTIL A MULTI- LAKE CONNECTION IS ESTABLISHED. WE CUT BACK
SLIGHTLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTING 12 TO 30 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS
MAINLY FROM AROUND OLD FORGE AND ALONG ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF NEAR 30 INCHES WILL PROBABLY WIND UP
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE FOREST BETWEEN STILLWATER RESERVOIR AND
THE ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY BORDER.
OUTSIDE OF THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR LIMITED
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST
DURING THE TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THUS WILL CONTINUE ALL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS RATHER THAN SINGLE DIGITS.
IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AGAIN WITH THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM OLD FORGE AND
ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL INLAND
EXTENT TOOL FROM CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATING THE SNOW BAND MAY EVEN
EXTEND WELL EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL THE WAY TO INDIAN LAKE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPPING INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER TO AROUND 1 KM.
WILL MENTION JUST CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LEFTOVER WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WIND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE TIME.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH TEMPS LIKELY WARM ENOUGH FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IF ANY
PCPN OCCURS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THIS
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. POPS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY AND
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE LOWS
LIKELY OCCURRING EARLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC OR POLAR
ORIGIN...SO IT WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ONLY
FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW SINCE IT IS STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH AGAIN FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A STRONG LAKE
EFFECT RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...IT SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A WEST
TO EAST DIRECTION...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
CLOUDS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SCT-BKN AT 3.5-5 KFT
AGL...WITH MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AT KPSF. TONIGHT EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS.
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
BE 16 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE...THEN LOWER TO 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU AFTER
07Z...AND AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER ICE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
924 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO
INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. PERSISTENT AND GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN
THE -10 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE.
WIND CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
AROUND 10 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...WITH SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING OVER
THE REGION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED WEST-EAST
ORIENTED VALLEYS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HERKIMER
AND NORTHWEST HAMILTON COUNTIES. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE
BAND HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY. THE
SNOW BAND IS NOW NORTH OF OLD FORGE AND STILLWATER
RESERVOIR...AFFECTING THE DEEP WOODS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE ADIRONDACK PARK. THE 12Z RUN OF LOCAL HIRESWRF AND THE LATEST
12Z RUN OF THE 3KM HRRR ALL SUGGEST THE BAND TO SLOWLY MOVE AND
SHIFT DURING THE DAY. EVENTUALLY...IT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
SOUTH TOWARDS THE OLD FORGE AREA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.
WE ARE STILL CONFIDENT FOR THE SNOW BAND TO EXTEND THROUGH
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND INTO WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTY TODAY AS A
MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION FROM LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY OCCURS. LOCAL
CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATES WITHIN AN EXTREME LAKE-AIR INSTABILITY
REGIME SUCH AS THIS ONE...THE INLAND EXTENT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
UNTIL A MULTI- LAKE CONNECTION IS ESTABLISHED. WE CUT BACK
SLIGHTLY ON THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTING 12 TO 30 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS
MAINLY FROM AROUND OLD FORGE AND ALONG ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF NEAR 30 INCHES WILL PROBABLY WIND UP
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE FOREST BETWEEN STILLWATER RESERVOIR AND
THE ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY BORDER.
OUTSIDE OF THE INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR LIMITED
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN VERMONT. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WESTERLY BREEZE WILL PERSIST
DURING THE TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THUS WILL CONTINUE ALL WIND CHILL HEADLINES
THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH MID TO UPPER TEENS ARE EXPECTED FOR
HIGHS RATHER THAN SINGLE DIGITS.
IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AGAIN WITH THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY FROM OLD FORGE AND
ROUTE 28 NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCAL INLAND
EXTENT TOOL FROM CSTAR RESEARCH INDICATING THE SNOW BAND MAY EVEN
EXTEND WELL EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY...WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALL THE WAY TO INDIAN LAKE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPPING INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER TO AROUND 1 KM.
WILL MENTION JUST CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LEFTOVER WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH WITH LESS WIND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE TIME.
SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20 TO 30 POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH TEMPS LIKELY WARM ENOUGH FOR MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IF ANY
PCPN OCCURS.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EAST
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THIS
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. POPS HAVE
BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING LIKELY AND
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS DECREASING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH THE LOWS
LIKELY OCCURRING EARLY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S...AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE OF ARCTIC OR POLAR
ORIGIN...SO IT WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. DRY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IT WILL HAVE LITTLE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST AREA SINCE IT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ONCE
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ONLY
FORECAST 30 POPS FOR NOW SINCE IT IS STILL 6 TO 7 DAYS OUT.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH AGAIN FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A STRONG LAKE
EFFECT RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...IT SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A WEST
TO EAST DIRECTION...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
CLOUDS TODAY AT THE TAF SITES WILL BE SCT-BKN AT 3.5-5 KFT
AGL...WITH MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AT KPSF. TONIGHT EXPECT MAINLY SCT
CLOUDS.
THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL
BE 16 TO 22 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE...THEN LOWER TO 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING. TONIGHT THW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AT KGFL/KPOU AFTER
07Z...AND AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RIVER ICE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ058-063.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-059>061-064>066-082>084.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
916 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS BUT DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH...WHICH
LOOKS TO SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS FGEN THAT HAD DRIVEN SOME LIGHT
SNOW EARLIER HAS FADED LEAVING ONLY CLOUD COVER BEHIND...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
MDB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH ONE MORE COLD SUBZERO
NIGHT TONIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING PRECIP TYPE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS PROVIDE RAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WHICH
DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER. THIS SNOW WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN THIS LIFT. DECENT
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND WOULD SUSPECT
THAT VIS IS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...AS
SAMPLING OF THIS SNOW FROM SURFACE OBS HAS BEEN LACKING. WITH THIS
WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTING THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
ALSO EXITING...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH 1 TO 3 MILE VIS IN THIS SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...COULD EASILY SEE
VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TRENDING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS DEPARTS COULD BE IN
THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
AFTER ANY LINGER SNOW DEPARTS THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT ATTENTION
BACK TOWARDS TEMPS TONIGHT. VORT MAX TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
IMPULSE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS OCCURRING...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATION OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT...DEPARTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
IN PLACE. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT AND AM NOW EXPECTING
LOW TEMPS TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS
CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. COLDEST TEMPS OF 10 TO 12 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE IF NOT CALM TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...AND FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. ALTHOUGH...SPORADIC HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY...THE CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID
LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...ALREADY BACKED WINDS AND ONGOING WAA WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
MID DAY...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THIS WAVE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
PUSH NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO OBSERVE THIS
PRECIP...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING TO THE FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
EVALUATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AS ALTHOUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/CRYSTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIP WILL START OFF AS MIX
OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...COULD OBSERVE THIS MIX INITIALLY BUT WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. THEN
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL OBSERVE
ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS VARYING PRECIP TYPE FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-88...WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING ALSO NEEDED TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE
OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY IF THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING WAA WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER WARMING OF THIS COLUMN WILL YIELD LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BETTER PRECIP AXIS PUSHES NORTH
BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO
FALL. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REINFORCING LIFT OWING TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. ALONG
WITH THIS LIFT...THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD.
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS...WITH RISES EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS RAIN AND SLIGHT WARMING
WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TO BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ASPECT IN THE HWO...WITH AN
ESF LIKELY ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT SNOW...POTENTIALLY SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
* LOWERING CIGS TO LOW END MVFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO IFR
THURSDAY EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SKIES REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...BY MID
TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THINGS WILL BECOME
MORE PROBLEMATIC. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A
HALF INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING OVER TO SOME -FZDZ BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERING
CIGS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY COULD RESULT IN WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS
AT THE LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY EVENING.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -SN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON -SN ENDING OR BECOMING -FZDZ BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CST
A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN...AT LEAST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SCOOTS
EAST LATER THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP AN
INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT GUST
MAGNITUDE BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED A FAIRLY STOUT
SUSTAINED WIND OF AROUND 25 KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE LOW PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO TURNING
WINDS WESTERLY. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH COULD MEAN ACTIVE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS AS SEEN IN
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
845 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH ONE MORE COLD SUBZERO
NIGHT TONIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING PRECIP TYPE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS PROVIDE RAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WHICH
DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER. THIS SNOW WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN THIS LIFT. DECENT
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND WOULD SUSPECT
THAT VIS IS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...AS
SAMPLING OF THIS SNOW FROM SURFACE OBS HAS BEEN LACKING. WITH THIS
WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTING THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
ALSO EXITING...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH 1 TO 3 MILE VIS IN THIS SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...COULD EASILY SEE
VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TRENDING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS DEPARTS COULD BE IN
THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
AFTER ANY LINGER SNOW DEPARTS THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT ATTENTION
BACK TOWARDS TEMPS TONIGHT. VORT MAX TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
IMPULSE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS OCCURRING...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATION OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT...DEPARTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
IN PLACE. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT AND AM NOW EXPECTING
LOW TEMPS TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS
CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. COLDEST TEMPS OF 10 TO 12 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE IF NOT CALM TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...AND FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. ALTHOUGH...SPORADIC HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY...THE CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID
LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...ALREADY BACKED WINDS AND ONGOING WAA WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
MID DAY...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THIS WAVE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
PUSH NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO OBSERVE THIS
PRECIP...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING TO THE FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
EVALUATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AS ALTHOUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/CRYSTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIP WILL START OFF AS MIX
OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...COULD OBSERVE THIS MIX INITIALLY BUT WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. THEN
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL OBSERVE
ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS VARYING PRECIP TYPE FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-88...WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING ALSO NEEDED TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE
OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY IF THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING WAA WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER WARMING OF THIS COLUMN WILL YIELD LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BETTER PRECIP AXIS PUSHES NORTH
BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO
FALL. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REINFORCING LIFT OWING TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. ALONG
WITH THIS LIFT...THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD.
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS...WITH RISES EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS RAIN AND SLIGHT WARMING
WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TO BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ASPECT IN THE HWO...WITH AN
ESF LIKELY ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
LIGHT SNOW...POTENTIALLY SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
* LOWERING CIGS TO LOW END MVFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO IFR
THURSDAY EVENING.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SKIES REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...BY MID
TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...THINGS WILL BECOME
MORE PROBLEMATIC. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWESTERN INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. OVERALL THE SNOW
LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A
HALF INCH POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE LIGHT SNOW TRANSITIONING OVER TO SOME -FZDZ BY
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERING
CIGS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY COULD RESULT IN WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS
AT THE LOCAL AIRFIELDS.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BY EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY...BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY EVENING.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -SN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON -SN ENDING OR BECOMING -FZDZ BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT WINDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DIRECTION.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CST
A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN...AT LEAST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SCOOTS
EAST LATER THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP AN
INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT GUST
MAGNITUDE BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED A FAIRLY STOUT
SUSTAINED WIND OF AROUND 25 KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE LOW PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO TURNING
WINDS WESTERLY. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH COULD MEAN ACTIVE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS AS SEEN IN
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1059 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1055 AM CST
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TRENDS FOR ANY FORECAST CHANGES
THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONFIRMED A SHARP
850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF 8C JUST BETWEEN KDVN AND KILX.
THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA IS LIKELY SQUEEZING THIS
THERMAL GRADIENT AS WELL AS INDUCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AS
SHORT WAVE ACROSS KS WORKS EAST THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE LIGHT ECHOES FURTHER INCREASE ALONG THIS THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE
850-700MB LAYER INDUCES SOME WEAK TO MODEST ASCENT. LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES REMAIN THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE AT THE GROUND. THIS
IS ALL WELL COVERED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE
AREA WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES STARTED CHILLY WITH
ANOTHER MORNING SEEING THE COOLEST TEMP IN THE LOWEST 17000 FT
BEING AT THE SURFACE /PER DVN/! BUT THESE VALUES HAVE REBOUNDED
FAIRLY WELL WITH SOME 6 DEGREE PER HOUR CLIMBS AT SEVERAL SITES.
THAT RATE WILL SLOW SOME AS MID-CLOUD CONTINUES TO THICKEN SOUTH
OF I-80. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT NEAR
THE WI STATE WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW COVER RESIDES AND THE
CHILLIEST VALUES WERE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY. OVERALL THIS WAS
JUST A SLIGHT NUDGE UPWARD FOR A FEW COMMUNITIES.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
332 AM CST
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA TODAY...THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY WITH A
FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY FOR RAIN...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS SOME MIXED
PRECIP OR FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ARCTIC AIR REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AND A SHARP BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE
OF THE HIGH. LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER DEEP SNOW
COVER HAVE ALLOWED OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE -10 TO -15
DEGREE RANGE ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-88...THOUGH WITH WIND CHILLS JUST
INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS IN A FEW SPOTS. MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS KEPT TEMPS JUST ABOVE
ZERO THERE. THIS ORIENTATION OF FRONTAL ZONE AND CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...KEEPING A FAIRLY LARGE
GRADIENT FROM COLDER TEMPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL TO ONLY MODERATELY
COLD READINGS IN THE SOUTH. SO ONE MORE DAY OF SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE
ZERO HIGHS AND ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO MINS FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES REMAINS BEFORE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST MODERATION TAKES HOLD
ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TEMPS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THURSDAY...WITH A LITTLE SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE A BLEND TOWARD THE COLDER OUTPUT WAS USED.
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A NARROW SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE STREATOR-KANKAKEE-DE MOTTE AREAS.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES APPROACH TODAY...
WITH GUIDANCE DEPICTING AN AREA OF MODERATE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOST NOTABLE IN THE 850-800MB LAYER. A LITTLE WEAKLY NEGATIVE EPV
NOTED ABOVE THE F-GEN LAYER INITIALLY FROM 800-750MB...THOUGH THIS
DOES NOT APPEAR TO PERSIST ONCE THE COLUMN BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FAIRLY WEEK WITH MOST OF THE LIFT PROVIDED BY
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE F-GEN...WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS LIMITED TO SAME NARROW SWATH AS SEEN IN THE 280-285 K
SURFACES. OVERALL...FORCING IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK OMEGA WHICH IS GENERALLY CENTERED BELOW BETTER
CRYSTAL/FLAKE GROWTH TEMPERATURE LAYER ALOFT. QPF LIMITED TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS ACROSS OUR FARTHEST SOUTH TIER OF COUNTIES...WITH
NAM/GFS/RAP COBB DATA SUGGESTING SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS OF AROUND 15/1
YIELDING ABOUT A HALF INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD END EARLY IN THE EVENING...AS RESPONSIBLE
PAIR OF MID-LEVEL WAVES RACE OFF TO THE EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUBBLE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS WI/NORTHERN IL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SOUTH AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS BACKED FLOW INDUCES A REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WHICH PRODUCES SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THERE MAY BE SOME TROUBLE SATURATING MID-LEVEL ICE NUCLEATION
TEMPERATURE LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS CAUSES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN P-TYPE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MIX WITH LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOMEWHAT DEEPER
SATURATION ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THURSDAY WHICH SUGGESTS
A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW THERE. SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE LOWER AS
THE AIR MASS MODERATES...WITH PERHAPS A 10/1 OR 12/1 RATIO YIELDING
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
MID-LEVELS DRY OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING HOWEVER ATOP
MOIST LOW LEVELS...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AROUND AREA-WIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH TAKES PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY...WITH RAIN DEVELOPING INTO THE REGION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM DURING THE LATE MORNING/MID-DAY HOURS. FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER WILL BE THE LAST TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...AND THUS HAVE PERHAPS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
RECEIVING SOME FREEZING RAIN. THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD
OCCUR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED...SNOW MELT AND RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREAK-UP ICE JAM FLOODING.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP OCCURS PRE-FRONTALLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH LITTLE QPF PRODUCED AFTER COLD FROPA. BRIEF
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS SURFACE AND ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...BEFORE ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX INDICATED. SEASONABLY/NORMAL COLDER AIR RETURNS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* NONE.
KREIN/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP CLEAR
SKIES AND LGT/VRBL-CALM WINDS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
LATE THIS MORNING. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL UNDERCUT THE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THROUGH CNTRL IL/IN...SPREADING SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A REINFORCING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY
WLY-NWLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 10KT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
MVFR LIKELY...IFR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/MVFR EARLY...THEN DRY/VFR.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY. MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD...LEADING
TO THE BRISK WEST WINDS GIVING WAY TO LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY///A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEADING TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LAKE. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 30KT BY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE LAKE.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL COVER THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE SHIFTING WINDS TO
WESTERLY.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1022 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1020 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2014
Morning surface data shows stationary front from TX into central
MO into south central IL. Upper air and moisture channel imagery
shows weak upper level wave over central KS to central OK.
Combinatio of upper wave and weak lift over the boundary should be
provide enough support to develop minor band of light snow over
northern portions of central IL, over northern portions of CWA.
Minro accumulations still possible. Will keep same current
forecast trend for this light snow this afternoon.
Goetsch
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 510 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2014
Main forecast concern will be timing and coverage of light snow as
a weak frontal boundary remains across the area with mostly VFR
cigs expected thru 22z. Any snows that do develop later this
morning out to our west and makes it this far east will have the
potential to drop cigs briefly down to MVFR this evening. Otherwise,
look for cigs to lower to between 4500-6000 feet by later this
morning, with the potential for cigs to lower to 2500-3500 feet
in any light snow that may push across a terminal site. The snow
threat should exit east of our area after 02z with low VFR cigs
expected to prevail overnight. Surface winds will be variable in
direction, mostly from the northeast at less than 10 kts today and
then gradually veer more into an easterly direction tonight.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 159 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2014
High pressure ridge to the NW and to the SE...but Central Illinois
is in a bit of a weak spot of the ridge that will result in some
low chance pops for today. Other issues with the forecast are the
general warming trend through Day 7...and a couple of precip
chances...tonight and into tomorrow... and Friday into the first
portion of the weekend. Current weather map is dominated by rather
weak sfc systems overall with a deep low NE of Hudson Bay. Deep
cold air over the Great Lakes and NE slowly making its way east,
with warmer temperatures in the SW. Previously NWrly flow becoming
more zonal and will set up todays chances for precip.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
High temps finally making it back to double digits above zero as
the airmass shifts once again. Though a southerly component is
returning to sfc winds on the back side of the southeastern
high in the southern half of the state...pressure gradient in the weak
spot in the ridge is all but non existent and the winds will
remain light in most locations through tonight. Quasi
boundary/weak convergence at the sfc contributing to some weak,
albeit persistent frontogenetic forcing for Central Illinois.
Locating exactly where this band of snowfall will set up is
extraordinarily difficult. HRRR is furthest north...NAM further
south and the RUC/RAPP right in the middle. Pops for this
afternoon across the nrn half of the CWA as a result with
generally light snowfall amounts listed. As the high pressure to
the southeast continues to slide to the east...a southerly
component returns to the sfc tomorrow and more warm air ushered
into the FA. Tonight and into tomorrow, a system will move out of
the SW but collide with the colder air in place over Central
Illinois and bring another quick chance of snow...with best
chances on Thursday. Accumulations should generally be less than
an inch. At the end of the snow, as the system comes to an
end...ice crystals are lost aloft and FZDZ chances will move into
the western half of the state. Overnight tomorrow night the
flurry/freezing drizzle chances may linger a bit through the night.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Temperatures should be climbing above zero across Central Illinois
for Friday and into the weekend. Another system moving in Friday
will be a bit problematic in the first portion of the day while
sfc temps are below freezing and a deep layer of warm air is in
place aloft as the precip starts. Should that profile
maintain...will be a mix of rain and freezing rain until the temps
rebound. After 18z, dominated by rain in ILX CWA. Friday
night...will see the best chances for rain...ending from nw to se
on Saturday early as the system has slowed considerably in the
last 2 synoptic runs. Next major wave aloft has major differences
in track and timing...with the ECMWF looking like the prev 00z GFS
and tracking the sfc system southeast of the Ohio River Valley.
GFS is far enough south that it never impacts the CWA. The new GFS
is actually dry, keeping the majority of the energy to the north
and just allowing generally warmer temperatures, at least through
Day 7, and a drier forecast.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
1036 AM CST
MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY ADJUSTING SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF A WAVE
OF ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A
FAIRLY THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD QUICKLY EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA...AND ANTICIPATE THIS TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. CURRENT WIND
CHILL WARNING WHICH IS SET TO EXPIRE AT MID DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE ON PAR...WITH WIND CHILLS STILL IN THE 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
RANGE AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...RISING ABOVE ZERO IN MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH...DO
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BUT ALSO OBSERVING SOME SLIGHT MODERATION AS
WELL. CURRENT BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//PREV DISCUSSION...
352 AM CST
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS TODAY...A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FINALLY A MIXED PRECIP/RAIN SYSTEM FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.
THE DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHICH WERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP. OF COURSE
SURFACE TEMPS OVER DEEP SNOW COVER ARE STILL QUITE COLD...THOUGH
TEMPS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STEADY IN THE -8 TO -14 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEST WINDS STILL PRODUCING
WIND CHILLS IN THE -28 TO -34 RANGE AT 3 AM...THOUGH THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE
WEST. WHILE A COUPLE OF AWOS SITES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ARE JUST SHY
OF WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SEE NO ADVANTAGE IN CHANGING
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO DOWNGRADE BLOCKS
OF THE WARNING A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ABOVE ZERO...DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND CHILLS RISING ABOVE EVEN ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY A BIT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WHILE
A COUPLE OF QUICK-MOVING CLIPPERS RIDE THE JET ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IN A RATHER SHEARED AND MOISTURE-STARVED FASHION.
LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...THOUGH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS DECREASE TO NIL AS IT THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE ELEVATED THERMAL
GRADIENT...MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE A DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN
LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE. BAROCLINIC
ZONE ENDS UP STRETCHED WEST-EAST FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL AND IND ON WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
(CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST) APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH MODEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A LITTLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF/GFS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SECOND SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH SNOW REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
LIFTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. WHILE SOME
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH VARIOUS MODELS...A BLEND OF EC/GFS/SREF QPF
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES. TEMPS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONTRAST FROM NORTH-SOUTH THANKS TO PRESENCE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE LONG-WAVE TROUGH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHICH INDUCES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMING TEMPS...THOUGH WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESS FIELDS...THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
COULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...THOUGH
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS ALL/MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BE SLOWING THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIP A LITTLE...WHICH WOULD HELP MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF
MIXED PRECIP WITH COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF DO PRODUCE 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME MELTING OF DEEP SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40. ECMWF DEPICTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...WHILE GFS TRENDS DRIER/COLDER...AS
MODELS DIFFER WITH PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG-WAVE BY DAYS 6-7. FOR NOW HAVE USED A
BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* NONE
IZZI
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS IN THE 15-20KT RANGE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LESS GENERALLY THAN
10KT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LITTLE THREAT OF ANY CIGS BELOW FL030.
IZZI
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS
IZZI
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING RAIN. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AND MVFR CIGS/VIS .
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT SHOULD HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING AS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. ALSO...WILL NEED TO
REPLACE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHILE MAINTAINING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. ALSO...WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH BY THIS EVENING THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE ARCTIC
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE AND WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY...ESPECIALLY WITH A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP INTO THE 30KT
RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...THERE WILL BE NO THREAT FOR
FREEZING SPRAY...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BY THEN.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1045 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
Will update the forecast at noon allowing the wind chill warning
to expire at that time across central IL. Wind chills late this
morning average from 15-25 below zero, except closer to 10 below
zero in southern 6 counties. Bloomington is coldest wind chill of
26 below zero. Mid level clouds already spreading east into
eastern IL late this morning with areas west of I-57 nearly cloudy.
Updated sky grids to increase cloud cover today and evening. Rest of
forecast looks on track into this evening. Highs range from 8-15F
with coolest readings from I-74 northeast. South to southwest
winds of 10-15 mph today with few gusts of 15-20 mph.
1040 mb arctic high pressure over the lower MS river valley and
ridging into TN/KY will continue to weaken to 1035 mb over the
Carolinas by dawn Wed. A warm front from northeast Nebraska to
near the MO/IA border to move into central IL tonight with temps
not falling much tonight due to this frontal boundary in area and
more cloud cover. Lows tonight around 5F northern areas and lower
teens southern areas.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
VFR conditions are expected today across the forecast area with
the potential for cigs to lower to MVFR cat after 00z...especially
across the north.
Arctic high pressure will continue drift away from the region
today with the latest satellite data and upstream surface
observations indicating a band of mid level clouds over parts of
north central Iowa. This cloud band is expected to drift southeast
and affect most of the TAF sites today with a weak weather system
developing over parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri this
evening. Models indicate a weak warm front developing over northeast
Missouri with the frontal system edging slowly to the east. Along and
north of this boundary, some MVFR cigs are forecast to develop after
00z this evening which is being confirmed by the latest HRRR and
Short Range Ensemble models. As a result, will continue to lower
the cigs from 6000-8000 feet that are expected over the area later
this morning thru this afternoon, to btwn 2500-3500 feet tonight.
For now, will limit the MVFR cigs to the northern TAF sites (KPIA
and KBMI).
Surface winds will continue to back more into a southerly direction
today as the high pressure system shifts off to our southeast. Wind
speeds today will range from 10 to 15 kts. Winds will be light
south to southeast tonight with speeds less than 10 kts.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
Arctic blast slowly edging south and temperatures expected to
begin to modify slowly this afternoon. Expansive area of high
pressure spreading over the center of the country gets interrupted
by a quick system on Wed night...and another for Friday and the
first half of the weekend. Temperatures starting to warm up enough
to have an impact on precip type. Extended differs greatly as a
wave ejects out of the southwest...but the GFS carries the system
further south and east, missing Central Illinois altogether. ECMWF
has a bit more of a southwesterly flow aloft...more amplified than
the GFS, and as a result quite a bit more qpf to wrap up the
weekend and start the next work week.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Finally saying goodbye to the bitterly cold temperatures as the
airmass slowly modifies behind the arctic blast. Highs today above
zero...and though very little change in the hourly temperatures
through the overnight with the lows being only a few degrees lower
than todays highs...tomorrow temps climb a bit more. Models
alternating with timing of impacts of two small features for
Wednesday/Wed night. Precip coverage and likelihood smaller with
the day time feature, focused more to the north along a weak
boundary. Better chances for precip Wed night into Thursday.
System should be dominated by snow early on, but accumulations
will remain small.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Small accumulations generally less than an inch for Thursday will
come to an end late Thursday as the airmass dries aloft and
crystals are lost. Mixing in some freezing drizzle on the back
edge of the precip with this system. At this point, temperatures
should be climbing above zero across Central Illinois for Friday
and into the weekend. Another system moving in Friday night being
a bit more problematic with the midlevels warming and a lack of
dendrites the precip will have the potential to be more of a
wintry mix and icy. NAM significantly warmer...even at the surface
by a couple degrees resulting in more of a rain solution. So at
this point... precip on Friday before noon a bit of an issue.
After 18z, dominated by rain in ILX CWA. Friday night...timing of
cold air moving in behind the precip will also possibly change the
rain over... but the timing differences at this point put the end
of the rain prior to the arrival of the colder air. Next major
system has major differences in track and timing...another wave
rippling across the swrn portion of the conus and moving into the
Ohio River Valley. GFS is far enough south that it never impacts
the CWA. The ECMWF tracks more NE. The extended, as a result, has
a couple periods with chance pops until more consistency works
into the solutions.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING until Noon CST today FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
545 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
352 AM CST
FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN BITTER COLD TEMPS AND
WIND CHILLS TODAY...A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FINALLY A MIXED PRECIP/RAIN SYSTEM FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TEMPS CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING.
THE DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND CORE OF COLDEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHICH WERE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION PER 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING PER GOES WATER VAPOR LOOP. OF COURSE
SURFACE TEMPS OVER DEEP SNOW COVER ARE STILL QUITE COLD...THOUGH
TEMPS HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STEADY IN THE -8 TO -14 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT. GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WEST WINDS STILL PRODUCING
WIND CHILLS IN THE -28 TO -34 RANGE AT 3 AM...THOUGH THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE
WEST. WHILE A COUPLE OF AWOS SITES ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ARE JUST SHY
OF WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA...SEE NO ADVANTAGE IN CHANGING
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AND WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO DOWNGRADE BLOCKS
OF THE WARNING A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...ABOVE ZERO...DURING THE
DAY WITH WIND CHILLS RISING ABOVE EVEN ADVISORY CRITERIA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
UPPER FLOW PROGGED TO DE-AMPLIFY A BIT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WHILE
A COUPLE OF QUICK-MOVING CLIPPERS RIDE THE JET ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ONE SUCH SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IN A RATHER SHEARED AND MOISTURE-STARVED FASHION.
LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...THOUGH SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN POPS DECREASE TO NIL AS IT THE
SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE ELEVATED THERMAL
GRADIENT...MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE A DEARTH OF MOISTURE IN
LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN SOME MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...AM NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS WAVE. BAROCLINIC
ZONE ENDS UP STRETCHED WEST-EAST FROM THE IA/MO BORDER EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL IL AND IND ON WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
(CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST) APPROACHES. GUIDANCE IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH MODEST
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A LITTLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF/GFS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SECOND SHORT WAVE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH SNOW REDEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND
LIFTING ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. WHILE SOME
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH VARIOUS MODELS...A BLEND OF EC/GFS/SREF QPF
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF PERHAPS 1-2 INCHES. TEMPS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CONTRAST FROM NORTH-SOUTH THANKS TO PRESENCE OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE LONG-WAVE TROUGH UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHICH INDUCES
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WARMING TEMPS...THOUGH WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES/THICKNESS FIELDS...THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
COULD BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...THOUGH
WOULD LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS ALL/MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BE SLOWING THE ONSET
OF THE PRECIP A LITTLE...WHICH WOULD HELP MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF
MIXED PRECIP WITH COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF DO PRODUCE 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH COMBINED WITH SOME MELTING OF DEEP SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO
SOME FLOODING/HYDRO ISSUES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40. ECMWF DEPICTS ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...WHILE GFS TRENDS DRIER/COLDER...AS
MODELS DIFFER WITH PHASING OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHERN PORTION OF LONG-WAVE BY DAYS 6-7. FOR NOW HAVE USED A
BLENDED GUIDANCE SOLUTION FOR TEMPS/PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* WEST WINDS OCNLY GUSTING TO ARND 18KT...DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON.
* VFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY LOWERING
THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAINING VFR.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA...WITH A MODERATE
WESTERLY GRADIENT IN PLACE BETWEEN A DEEP LOW OVER ERN CANADA AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY.
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT THAT THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND SOME GUSTINESS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...FURTHER DECREASING WINDS WHILE GRADUALLY BACKING TO MORE
SWLY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS
SHOULD BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK A LITTLE MORE SWLY...A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP LOWER CIGS...BUT EXPECT THAT ANY DEVELOPING CIGS WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO VFR LEVELS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING RAIN. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR EARLY...THEN VFR.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/VIS
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW AND MVFR CIGS/VIS .
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER THE LAKE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES. HAVE DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
HOWEVER...WINDS GUSTING TO 30KT SHOULD HANG IN THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...KEEPING THE THREAT OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY GOING AS THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. ALSO...WILL NEED TO
REPLACE THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHILE MAINTAINING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS. ALSO...WILL MAINTAIN THE GOING
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH BY THIS EVENING THAT THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL SUBSIDE. BY EARLY THURSDAY THE ARCTIC
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE LAKE AND WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY...ESPECIALLY WITH A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP INTO THE 30KT
RANGE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
DRAWING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD...THERE WILL BE NO THREAT FOR
FREEZING SPRAY...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
BY THEN.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WIND CHILL WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
IN...WIND CHILL WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 UNTIL
NOON TUESDAY.
LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-
LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-
LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
528 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
Arctic blast slowly edging south and temperatures expected to
begin to modify slowly this afternoon. Expansive area of high
pressure spreading over the center of the country gets interrupted
by a quick system on Wed night...and another for Friday and the
first half of the weekend. Temperatures starting to warm up enough
to have an impact on precip type. Extended differs greatly as a
wave ejects out of the southwest...but the GFS carries the system
further south and east, missing Central Illinois altogether. ECMWF
has a bit more of a southwesterly flow aloft...more amplified than
the GFS, and as a result quite a bit more qpf to wrap up the
weekend and start the next work week.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Finally saying goodbye to the bitterly cold temperatures as the
airmass slowly modifies behind the arctic blast. Highs today above
zero...and though very little change in the hourly temperatures
through the overnight with the lows being only a few degrees lower
than todays highs...tomorrow temps climb a bit more. Models
alternating with timing of impacts of two small features for
Wednesday/Wed night. Precip coverage and likelihood smaller with
the day time feature, focused more to the north along a weak
boundary. Better chances for precip Wed night into Thursday.
System should be dominated by snow early on, but accumulations
will remain small.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
Small accumulations generally less than an inch for Thursday will
come to an end late Thursday as the airmass dries aloft and
crystals are lost. Mixing in some freezing drizzle on the back
edge of the precip with this system. At this point, temperatures
should be climbing above zero across Central Illinois for Friday
and into the weekend. Another system moving in Friday night being
a bit more problematic with the midlevels warming and a lack of
dendrites the precip will have the potential to be more of a
wintry mix and icy. NAM significantly warmer...even at the surface
by a couple degrees resulting in more of a rain solution. So at
this point... precip on Friday before noon a bit of an issue.
After 18z, dominated by rain in ILX CWA. Friday night...timing of
cold air moving in behind the precip will also possibly change the
rain over... but the timing differences at this point put the end
of the rain prior to the arrival of the colder air. Next major
system has major differences in track and timing...another wave
rippling across the swrn portion of the conus and moving into the
Ohio River Valley. GFS is far enough south that it never impacts
the CWA. The ECMWF tracks more NE. The extended, as a result, has
a couple periods with chance pops until more consistency works
into the solutions.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Tue Jan 7 2014
VFR conditions are expected today across the forecast area with
the potential for cigs to lower to MVFR cat after 00z...especially
across the north.
Arctic high pressure will continue drift away from the region
today with the latest satellite data and upstream surface
observations indicating a band of mid level clouds over parts of
north central Iowa. This cloud band is expected to drift southeast
and affect most of the TAF sites today with a weak weather system
developing over parts of southern Iowa into northern Missouri this
evening. Models indicate a weak warm front developing over northeast
Missouri with the frontal system edging slowly to the east. Along and
north of this boundary, some MVFR cigs are forecast to develop after
00z this evening which is being confirmed by the latest HRRR and
Short Range Ensemble models. As a result, will continue to lower
the cigs from 6000-8000 feet that are expected over the area later
this morning thru this afternoon, to btwn 2500-3500 feet tonight.
For now, will limit the MVFR cigs to the northern TAF sites (KPIA
and KBMI).
Surface winds will continue to back more into a southerly direction
today as the high pressure system shifts off to our southeast. Wind
speeds today will range from 10 to 15 kts. Winds will be light
south to southeast tonight with speeds less than 10 kts.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING until Noon CST today FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
600 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN US
TODAY...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NARROW BAND
OF SNOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE IA-MO BORDER AND INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED BY THE RAP AND HRR
TO WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE FORCING RAPIDLY EXITS TO THE
EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CWFA TONIGHT... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS
UNIVERSALLY SHOWING LARGE AREA LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS YET ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
INITIALLY...SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ONSET OF PRECIP...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34...AS IT TAKES TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO
SATURATE. IN THE END...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF AREA FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH MID LEVEL
DRYING ABOVE THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...AIR MASS COULD
WELL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE MORE ICE CRYSTALS THAN DRIZZLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DOMINANT CONCERN.
OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS THURSDAY WILL CLIMB ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY AREA WIDE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS IN EARNEST BY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
A WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT.
THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING. THURSDAY
NIGHT...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW MOIST AIR
INTO TO THE REGION PROVIDING A SET UP FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE. IF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE MATERIALIZES...JUST TRACE AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
WITH WITH PW/S OVER THE REGION INCREASING TO 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF FORCING OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE UPPER WAVE. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 100-120KT H3
JET LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS CONCENTRATED ALONG OR JUST EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ONGOING FROM THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
WHEN THE PRECIP DEVELOPS/MOVES IN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80
SHOULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET BRIEFLY DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. TO THE NORTH A LIGHT MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON THEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME ANY ICE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL FURTHER EAST INTO IL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE 06Z RUNS WITH
AXIS OF 1+ INCHES OF RAIN ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION KEEPING THE
HEAVIER RAIN TO THE EAST. THE FORCING FIELDS FROM THE ECMWF WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST A MORE EASTERN LOCATION FOR THE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. GOING WITH THE CONSENSUS THEN WOULD YIELD 24 HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF IN INCH RANGE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SNOW ON THE GROUND MOST OF THIS RAIN SHOULD
BE ABSORBED INTO THE SNOW PACK RATHER RUNNING OFF INTO
RIVERS...LESSENING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RISES AND ICE
JAMS. ONE THING TO WATCH FOR THOUGH ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WHERE THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
OCCUR WOULD BE STREET FLOOD FROM POOR DRAINAGE DUE TO SNOW BLOCKING
STORM DRAINS.
THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH COOLER H8 TEMPS FILLING IN AND CHANGING ANY
LINGERING PRECIP TO LIGHT SNOW. THE PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW IN
THE NORTHWEST FOURTH EARLY ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. A MINOR PRECIP EVENT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES CURRENT DATA SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 30S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR LOWS. MID TO LATE WEEK AN UPPER TROF
IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BRINGING A SURGE OF CANADIAN
AIR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS EAST
TUESDAY WITH S/W MOVING JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY WILL COOL OFF SOME WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S AND HIGHS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN A NARROW BAND
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CIGS AND FEW FLURRIES OR PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE SOUTH OF I-80. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MENTION WITH 00Z TAFS
BUT DID HINT AT POSSIBILITY WITH SCT020-030 CLOUD LAYER. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE THURSDAY AM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH
THE LOWEST OF THE CONDITIONS FAVORING KMLI TO KBRL ON EAST DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CALM TO LIGHT N/NW WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED
TO VEER TO E/SE AT 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT/THURSDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...DLF
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
549 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS
IS UNDERWAY INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF. DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A SIMILAR OUTCOME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
THIS WILL RESULT IN DEPOSITION OF A LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER A
FURTHER EXPANSION TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. SOME FREEZING FOG WITH LOCALLY LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE COMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
STRONGER PACIFIC UPPER TROF DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BETTER FETCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN. THE
LATEST GFS SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIKEWISE QPF EAST
QUICKER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
THE NAM REMAINS MORE BULLISH AND THE ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE.
FOR NOW HAVE MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN SOME ICING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE FUTURE WINTER HEADLINE.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO FOR A CHANGE.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY AND MILDER
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS WHICH WILL AFFECT
DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
A TROF ON SUNDAY WHICH SUGGESTS A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
CHALLENGE BY MID-WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM TROF WITHIN THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW A BIT COLDER
AIR THAN ADVERTISED TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MESSY AND MAINLY IFR AVIATION FORECAST FOR ALL SITES. NAM/GFS
APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING CONFIDENCE OF LATTER TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST. RUC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR...LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CORRELATION
WITH ONGOING WEATHER/TRENDS. THESE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER TO
SPREAD LOW CLOUDS NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER ALL SEEM
TO POINT TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. WITH INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU...NOT EXPECTING
A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...OPTED TO BE
QUITE STINGY WITH FZDZ FORECAST...LIMITING IT TO THE MOST LIKELY
SITE/S: KCNU. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 24 35 31 43 / 20 10 50 70
HUTCHINSON 21 34 29 42 / 20 10 50 60
NEWTON 22 34 30 42 / 20 10 50 70
ELDORADO 24 35 30 44 / 30 10 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 26 36 32 47 / 30 10 60 80
RUSSELL 16 34 26 41 / 10 10 20 40
GREAT BEND 17 34 27 41 / 10 10 30 40
SALINA 16 33 27 40 / 20 10 30 60
MCPHERSON 19 33 29 41 / 20 10 40 60
COFFEYVILLE 28 37 32 49 / 40 20 60 90
CHANUTE 26 36 31 46 / 40 20 50 90
IOLA 25 35 31 46 / 40 20 40 90
PARSONS-KPPF 28 36 32 48 / 40 20 50 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ069>072-
083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
812 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2014
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 810 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2014
Quick update to adjust temps, dewpoints, and weather for the
overnight period. An inverted trough stretches along the Ohio River
in western Kentucky northeastward through southern Indiana and into
central Ohio. A weak PV anomaly oriented nearly parallel to this
surface trough has provided some lift. The atmosphere continues to
moisten from the top down, and the reflectivity noticed on radar is
a mix of precipitation aloft and clouds. There still remains quite a
bit of dry air at the lower levels. However, the cloud bases are
lowering and surface dewpoints are increasing into the lower 20s
across our west at this hour. The projection is for this to continue
overnight along the inverted trough corridor. Have not received any
reports of flurries across our CWA, but that may change later as the
low-levels moisten some more, as was noted upstream across southern
IL and far western KY. So, have initially added flurries to the
forecast across southern Indiana, Kentucky counties along the Ohio
River, and along and west of I-65 in Kentucky. The HRRR seemed to
have a fairly good handle on this situation, showing reflectivity,
yet no precip accumulations. Will continue to monitor trends.
Updated products out shortly.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2014
Arctic high finally modifying as it slips off the Carolina coast,
with another Canadian high building SE from Minnesota. Weak surface
trough is draped roughly along I-70, and even with an upper wave
zipping across the Ohio Valley, it it too moisture-starved to
generate anything other than mid/high clouds this afternoon. The
next wave upstream is starting to draw Gulf moisture into the
southern Plains, and a stronger wave is moving into the Four Corners
region. These features will be our next weathermaker Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night.
Tonight we will hold onto fairly extensive cloud cover, which will
limit our diurnal temp range. Went close to the warmer NAM MOS for
lows tonight, with lower to mid 20s in most spots.
Temps on Thursday will be critical in determining precip type as the
disturbance ejecting out of the southern Plains finally moistens the
low levels enough to get precip to the surface. Guidance temps in
pretty good agreement, ranging from the upper 30s over Indiana to
the mid 40s near Lake Cumberland. POPs ramp up in the afternoon, and
we expect mainly rain. However, there could be enough wet-bulb
effect that there could be some mixing with sleet at the onset.
Either way, impacts will be mitigated because QPF will be quite low,
no more than a few hundredths of an inch.
Slight chance or low chance POPs will continue through much of the
night, with the focus gradually shifting into southern Indiana.
Temps should flatline in the mid 30s, and forecast soundings do not
suggest that much ice will be present after about 03Z. Can`t rule
out a brief period of mixed light precip early in the evening, but
it is a low probability and brief enough that the mention will be
limited to the late afternoon for now. Will keep the timing a bit
more vague in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, given that the evening
timing can be better conveyed in that forum.
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2014
The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a digging trough across the west-central CONUS. This will
place the Ohio Valley within southwesterly flow for the first part
of the weekend, before the flow transitions to more zonal/weak
northwesterly for the start of the upcoming week.
Guidance is in general agreement with the handling of a PV anomaly
slated to push through the region on Saturday. Out ahead of it,
surface cyclogenesis will take place across the Central Plains on
Friday, inducing increasing southerly surface flow throughout the
Ohio Valley. Isentropic ascent/moisture transport may lead to
widespread cloud cover and perhaps an isolated shower north of the
Ohio River, but expect most to stay dry. With the increased surface
flow and rising heights aloft, temperatures into the upper 40s and
lower 50s certainly seem attainable. If more sunshine breaks out
than is currently forecasted (most likely place across southern KY),
then temperatures will need to be nudged up even more.
The multi-model consensus pushes the surface cold front through the
region during the first part of the day on Saturday. PWATs out
ahead of this front will increase to around 1.4 inches, which puts
them right around the 99th percentile in relation to climatology for
this time of year. In addition, the upper-level forcing from the PV
anomaly will be overspreading the surface cold front as it passes
through the Ohio Valley, fostering rather deep ascent. Despite the
progressive nature of the front, this strong ascent will likely
promote a solid band of moderate to locally heavy rainfall.
Guidance suggests some very meager elevated instability, but think
any thunder will remain so isolated it`s not worth mentioning in the
forecast at this time. Overall rainfall amounts with this system
looks to be about an inch.
Guidance quickly diverges by early next week as the aforementioned
system exits the region. The ECMWF has been consistent in
developing a southern stream low, which tracks into central KY on
Tuesday. The GFS and to a certain extent, the GEM, do not agree
with the ECMWF solution. Given its consistency and at least some
weak support from the multi-model ensemble, cannot discount the
ECMWF solution. Therefore, will continue with slight chance pops
Monday night into Tuesday. Taken at face value, the ECMWF solution
would mostly be snow, but will continue with a rain/snow mix in the
grids given the high forecast uncertainty and the GEM/GFS being much
warmer.
Temperatures throughout the period will actually be quite mild.
Readings out ahead of the approaching front will warm into the
low to mid 50s on Friday and Saturday (although they will likely
drop slightly through the afternoon Saturday as the front passes).
Behind the front, temperatures won`t cool too much, with highs in
the upper 40s and lower 50s still expected Sunday and into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 640 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2014
Weak surface and upper troughs will remain over the Ohio Valley
through the valid TAF period. Low-level moisture remains limited,
but the moisture working northeastward from western KY and southern
IL will help moisten the column a little more and drop cigs, yet
remaining VFR. Might see a few flurries or virga as this moisture
works this way this evening. Winds are becoming light and should go
variable/nearly calm overnight. Light southeast winds are expected
during the day Thursday. Another weak wave aloft will move into the
area during the afternoon, providing a chance of precipitation.
Probabilities remain too low to include in TAFs at this time.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........MJP
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
632 PM EST WED JAN 8 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER SATURDAY...THEN
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST MOVES
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO BRING DOWN THE PERCENTAGES
INITIALLY BASED THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING LESS CLOUDS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. SOME CLOUDS MOVING INTO WESTERN MAINE IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. USING THE SATELLITE LOOP
AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR AND GEM PUTS THICKENING CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LATEST TEMPERATURES ARE MATCHING UP WELL. STILL EXPECTING BELOW
ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA BY MORNING.
SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVE AS THE SFC-BL BECOMES SOMEWHAT
DECOUPLED. THIS WILL MAKE LOW TEMP FCSTNG FOR LATE TNGT A TOUGH
CALL...WITH PROTECTED VLYS ONLY MAINTAINING A LGT BREEZE WHILE
OPEN HIER TRRN HOLD ON TO A SOMEWHAT STRONGER BREEZE. IN
ADDITION... EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE FA WILL BEGIN MCLR...MODELS
INDICATE A SERIES OF SUB-SYNOPTIC S/WVS MOVG WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
NRN HLF OF THE FA OVRNGT THAT MAY SPREAD SOME MID/LOW CLDNSS TO NW
AND XTRM NE PTNS OF THE FA LATE TNGT INTO ERLY THU.
SUBSEQUENTLY...WE WENT BLO GUIDANCE FOR OVRNGT LOWS ACROSS
PROTECTED VLYS...SPCLY THE N AND W AND CLOSER TO GUIDANCE
ELSEWHERE.
W TO NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURG THE DAY THU AS THE LAST OF
THE S/WVS CROSSES THE FA...WITH ANY CLDNSS MOVG E OR DISSIPATING
FROM THE FA BY AFTN AS THE S/WV MOVES E INTO NEW BRUNSWICK PROV.
HI TEMPS...WHICH WERE A LITTLE TO COOL FOR TDY...SHOULD BE SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE ACROSS THE FA...SO WE USED THE MODIFIED
HI TEMPS FOR TDY ALSO FOR THU`S HI TEMP.
WITH WINDS MSLY LESS THAN 10 MPH TNGT AND WITH WRMG BY MID MORN
THU...WE DO NOT SEE THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HDLNS ATTM...
BUT OVRNGT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WIND CHILLS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY. THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE OUR LAST COLD NIGHT FOR THE WEEK, THOUGH; MILDER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO SPILL INTO THE REGION AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY. AS SUCH, WE`LL START TO SEE A WARM UP ON FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO AROUND 30
ALONG THE COAST.
THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES ANOTHER WINTRY MIX-TO-RAIN EVENT FOR THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE EARLY, ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE
AND FOG. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY MORNING, STARTING OUT AS SNOW, BUT THEN QUICKLY MIXING
WITH AND/OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE MILDER AIR
MOVES OVER THE COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE
SAINT JOHN VALLEY WHERE THE COLD AIR MAY HANG IN LONGER). HOWEVER,
MUCH LIKE OUR LAST RAIN EVENT, FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE EVEN
ONCE AIR TEMPS HAVE GONE ABOVE FREEZING, OWING TO THE COLD GROUND
AND OTHER SURFACES. AT THIS TIME, THE RAPID WARM UP LOOKS TO
LIMIT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION; LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING TO
OUR WEST, KEEPING US IN THE MILD AIR AND RAIN RIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH
COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE RAIN MAY
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BRIEFLY BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END SUNDAY EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT VARIES FROM
FORECAST MODEL TO FORECAST MODEL...BUT A WIDESPREAD HALF INCH UP
TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. DON`T BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
ANY RIVER FLOODING ISSUES...BUT GIVEN THAT THE RIVERS ARE ALREADY
RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL FROM THE LAST EVENT AND THE FACT THAT
THE PERIOD OF WARM AIR WILL BE LONGER THAN THE LAST ONE...THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC KEEPS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
WIDELY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO APPEAR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS MOVES A WEAK LOW ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF USHERS ANOTHER STRONG LOW WELL TO OUR WEST,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN YET ANOTHER RAIN EVENT. HAVE GONE WITH A
MODEL BLEND FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM FOR UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE XCPTN OF KFVE LATE
TNGT INTO ERLY THIS MORN WHERE MVFR SC CLGS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOIST SOUTH FLOW COULD RESULT IN IFR
IN DRIZZLE AND FOG AT KBHB AND KBGR FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT IFR WILL
LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A WINTRY MIX
SPREADS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN
BY 18Z-20Z.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: DECIDED TO DROP THE INTRA COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SCA
AND EXTENDED THE OUTER ZONES THROUGH 11 PM AS 44027 & 44034 ARE
STILL SHOWING GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK WHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS LATE TNGT INTO TUE MORN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASE AGAIN
TO SCA RANGE BRIEFLY MIDDAY THU INTO THE AFTN HRS AS A MSL PRES
GRAD SURGE OCCURS BEHIND A LAST S/WV MOVG INTO THE CAN MARITIMES.
SHORT TERM: HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS FRIDAY.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEADLINES (WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A GALE
WARNING) WILL BE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SOUTH
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/HASTINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
317 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED FM NCENTRAL ONTARIO S INTO THE GRT LKS...WITH DEEP CYC NW
FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ARND SFC LO PRES IN NRN QUEBEC. H5/H7/H85
TEMPS WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 00Z EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO
INTO MI WERE -45C/-35C/-30C. LLVL NW WINDS ARE UP TO 35-40 KTS PER
THE MQT 88D VWP UNDER THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR
LKS... AND THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY SFC WINDS AND THE BRUTAL
COLD THAT HAS DROPPED SFC TEMPS TO ARND -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W
HAVE CAUSED WIND CHILLS TO FALL AS LO AS -35F TO -45F OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. LES ALSO PERSISTS IN THE W TO NW WIND SN
BELTS OVER THE W AND NEAR LK SUP E OF PICTURED ROCKS. AN AREA OF
THICKER CLDS AND SOME SPOTTY -SN ARE SPREADING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO
TOWARD THE UPR LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD IN NW
ONTARIO ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE POLAR VORTEX.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON RECORD LO TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS/LES AND GOING HEADLINES.
TDAY...AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
SLIDING SEWD THRU NE LK SUP THIS MRNG WL MAINTAIN DEEPER MSTR/MIXED
LYR AND AID IN MORE WDSPRD LES. THE SHSN WL BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER OVER
THE E GIVEN LONGER FETCH/OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTENING OVER THE E NEAR
LK SUP...WHERE SHARPENED LAND BREEZE CNVGC WL BE THE RULE AND SLGTLY
WARMER TEMPS MODIFIED BY LONGER PASSAGE OVER LK SUP WL NOT HAMPER SN
GROWTH AS SGNFTLY AS OVER THE W. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV
TO THE E BY THIS AFTN...DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL
DOMINATE...WITH ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE DRYING THE MID LVLS AND
CAUSING INVRN BASES TO SINK TO 4-5K FT. SO EXPECT LES INTENSITY TO
DIMINISH. DEPARTURE OF CORE OF COLDEST AIR/POLAR VORTEX TO THE NE
INTO QUEBEC THAT CAUSES H85 TEMPS TO RISE FM ARND -25C AT 12Z TO
CLOSER TO -20C BY 00Z WED WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER A BIT COMPARED
TO MON. IN CONCERT WITH SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT/SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WINDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD EASE ABV WRNG THRESHOLDS THIS AFTN AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE LES SHOULD
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL. DID EXTEND THE GOING WRNG FOR A FEW HRS OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVY CRITERIA THAT WL PERSIST
THERE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTN.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS FARTHER TO THE NE...THE PRES
GRADIENT/LLVL WINDS WL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND H85 TEMPS WL RISE TO ARND
-18C BY 12Z WED UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THAT WL SHARPEN AN INVRN
ARND 3-4K FT. EVEN THOUGH A SLOW WARMING WL ALLOW FOR IMPROVED SN
GROWTH...LOWERING INVRN BASE SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W. WL NOT EXTEND LES ADVYS BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT
00Z THIS EVNG GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIMINISHING SN TRENDS/WINDS THAT WL
ALSO DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN/WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS WL MODERATE TNGT...SFC TEMPS MAY STILL PLUNGE SHARPLY AOB -20F
AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH EXPECTATION THAT LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WL ALLOW FOR MOCLR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTER WINDS. APRNT
TEMPS MAY REACH THE WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA...BUT OVERALL WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENUF TO JUSTIFY NO EXTENTION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES
WHERE THE TEMPS FALL MORE SHARPLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
FOR WED/WED NIGHT...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC LOW MOVING E AND A
SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
WNW-NW WIND LES WED AS WARMING TEMPS WILL PUT MORE OF THE LOW LEVELS
IN THE DGZ SO RATIOS WILL BE A BIT BETTER ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NE OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP OFFSET LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR WED NIGHT...EXPECT LES TO LINGER MAINLY OVER
NE UPPER MI AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES S OF THE CWA WHILE DIMINISHING
OVERALL. DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST MUCH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD AND EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THU INTO EARLY SAT IS TRICKY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW WED NIGHT...WITH NRN AND SRN JET STREAM INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH THESE TYPES OF
NRN AND SRN STREAM INTERACTIONS...THE SITUATION IS ALWAYS MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING ENERGY ALLOCATION. AREA
WIDE SYSTEM SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY AS ENERGY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCES AND
DEFINITELY FINE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. ONE THING MORE CERTAIN
IS THAT SW WINDS THU THROUGH FRI WILL RESULT AS THE HIGH EXITS E AND
THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SW FLOW LES
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPS AND THE NORMALLY TRICKY
NATURE OF LES IN THAT REGIME...WILL NOT ADD SIGNIFICANT EMPHASIS AT
THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING
CLOSER TO FREEZING FRI AND SAT.
SUN INTO MON ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS INDICATE A QUICK
HITTING DISTURBANCE GENERALLY MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...EVEN
GIVEN THE CURRENT GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT. BEST THAT CAN BE SAID AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION AND AT LEAST A QUICK SHOT OF WARMER TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING IS POSSIBLE. USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
CMX...GUSTY WNW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WL BRING NEARLY CONTINUOUS
-SHSN/BLSN AND LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS REMAINING. IN FACT VIS HAS
BEEN STUCK AT 1/4SM OR LESS SINCE 13Z. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND
OVERALL...BUT IT WILL BE SLOW GOING. A NEARLY STEADY BAND OF LES
SHOWN ON THE VIS SATELLITE IMG SHOWN THAT IT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY N
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE
VIS/CEILINGS...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS DIMINISH AND VIS IMPROVES. LARGER SCALE DRYING WILL QUICKLY
TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IWD...MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
OFF SHORE...WITH VFR CEILINGS DOMINATING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRIER AIR SWINGS IN.
SAW...A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP ACROSS N CENTRAL UPPER
MI WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT SAW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE VFR CEILINGS/VIS TAKE
HOLD AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS W-WNW WINDS KEEP THE FOCUS OF
LES TO THE W AND E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
WEAKENING W-WNW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONTINUED ARCTIC AIRMASS AND STEADY WIND
DIRECTION...WAVES WILL NOT DIMINISH RAPIDLY AND FREEZING SPRAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS
NEARING 25-30KTS NO GALES ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FCST
PERIOD AT THIS TIME.
THE DEEP LOW N QUEBEC WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH SLOWLY FILLING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA AND THE N PLAINS WILL SINK ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY...AND BRIEFLY PUSH A RIDGE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT A WEAKENING RIDGE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES UNTIL LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM MANITOBA
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE
DRAGGING A TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A
BRIEF RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
ALLOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO SLIDE ACROSS ONTARIO SUNDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 9
AM EST /8 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-012>014-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-249>251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1251 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED FM NCENTRAL ONTARIO S INTO THE GRT LKS...WITH DEEP CYC NW
FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ARND SFC LO PRES IN NRN QUEBEC. H5/H7/H85
TEMPS WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 00Z EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO
INTO MI WERE -45C/-35C/-30C. LLVL NW WINDS ARE UP TO 35-40 KTS PER
THE MQT 88D VWP UNDER THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR
LKS... AND THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY SFC WINDS AND THE BRUTAL
COLD THAT HAS DROPPED SFC TEMPS TO ARND -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W
HAVE CAUSED WIND CHILLS TO FALL AS LO AS -35F TO -45F OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. LES ALSO PERSISTS IN THE W TO NW WIND SN
BELTS OVER THE W AND NEAR LK SUP E OF PICTURED ROCKS. AN AREA OF
THICKER CLDS AND SOME SPOTTY -SN ARE SPREADING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO
TOWARD THE UPR LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD IN NW
ONTARIO ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE POLAR VORTEX.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON RECORD LO TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS/LES AND GOING HEADLINES.
TDAY...AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
SLIDING SEWD THRU NE LK SUP THIS MRNG WL MAINTAIN DEEPER MSTR/MIXED
LYR AND AID IN MORE WDSPRD LES. THE SHSN WL BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER OVER
THE E GIVEN LONGER FETCH/OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTENING OVER THE E NEAR
LK SUP...WHERE SHARPENED LAND BREEZE CNVGC WL BE THE RULE AND SLGTLY
WARMER TEMPS MODIFIED BY LONGER PASSAGE OVER LK SUP WL NOT HAMPER SN
GROWTH AS SGNFTLY AS OVER THE W. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV
TO THE E BY THIS AFTN...DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL
DOMINATE...WITH ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE DRYING THE MID LVLS AND
CAUSING INVRN BASES TO SINK TO 4-5K FT. SO EXPECT LES INTENSITY TO
DIMINISH. DEPARTURE OF CORE OF COLDEST AIR/POLAR VORTEX TO THE NE
INTO QUEBEC THAT CAUSES H85 TEMPS TO RISE FM ARND -25C AT 12Z TO
CLOSER TO -20C BY 00Z WED WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER A BIT COMPARED
TO MON. IN CONCERT WITH SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT/SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WINDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD EASE ABV WRNG THRESHOLDS THIS AFTN AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE LES SHOULD
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL. DID EXTEND THE GOING WRNG FOR A FEW HRS OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVY CRITERIA THAT WL PERSIST
THERE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTN.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS FARTHER TO THE NE...THE PRES
GRADIENT/LLVL WINDS WL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND H85 TEMPS WL RISE TO ARND
-18C BY 12Z WED UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THAT WL SHARPEN AN INVRN
ARND 3-4K FT. EVEN THOUGH A SLOW WARMING WL ALLOW FOR IMPROVED SN
GROWTH...LOWERING INVRN BASE SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W. WL NOT EXTEND LES ADVYS BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT
00Z THIS EVNG GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIMINISHING SN TRENDS/WINDS THAT WL
ALSO DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN/WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS WL MODERATE TNGT...SFC TEMPS MAY STILL PLUNGE SHARPLY AOB -20F
AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH EXPECTATION THAT LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WL ALLOW FOR MOCLR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTER WINDS. APRNT
TEMPS MAY REACH THE WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA...BUT OVERALL WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENUF TO JUSTIFY NO EXTENTION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES
WHERE THE TEMPS FALL MORE SHARPLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
FOR WED/WED NIGHT...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC LOW MOVING E AND A
SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
WNW-NW WIND LES WED AS WARMING TEMPS WILL PUT MORE OF THE LOW LEVELS
IN THE DGZ SO RATIOS WILL BE A BIT BETTER ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NE OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP OFFSET LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR WED NIGHT...EXPECT LES TO LINGER MAINLY OVER
NE UPPER MI AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES S OF THE CWA WHILE DIMINISHING
OVERALL. DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST MUCH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD AND EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THU INTO EARLY SAT IS TRICKY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW WED NIGHT...WITH NRN AND SRN JET STREAM INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH THESE TYPES OF
NRN AND SRN STREAM INTERACTIONS...THE SITUATION IS ALWAYS MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING ENERGY ALLOCATION. AREA
WIDE SYSTEM SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY AS ENERGY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCES AND
DEFINITELY FINE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. ONE THING MORE CERTAIN
IS THAT SW WINDS THU THROUGH FRI WILL RESULT AS THE HIGH EXITS E AND
THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SW FLOW LES
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPS AND THE NORMALLY TRICKY
NATURE OF LES IN THAT REGIME...WILL NOT ADD SIGNIFICANT EMPHASIS AT
THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING
CLOSER TO FREEZING FRI AND SAT.
SUN INTO MON ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS INDICATE A QUICK
HITTING DISTURBANCE GENERALLY MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...EVEN
GIVEN THE CURRENT GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT. BEST THAT CAN BE SAID AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION AND AT LEAST A QUICK SHOT OF WARMER TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING IS POSSIBLE. USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
CMX...GUSTY WNW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WL BRING NEARLY CONTINUOUS
-SHSN/BLSN AND LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS REMAINING. IN FACT VIS HAS
BEEN STUCK AT 1/4SM OR LESS SINCE 13Z. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND
OVERALL...BUT IT WILL BE SLOW GOING. A NEARLY STEADY BAND OF LES
SHOWN ON THE VIS SATELLITE IMG SHOWN THAT IT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY N
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE MORE VARIABILITY IN THE
VIS/CEILINGS...WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
AS WINDS DIMINISH AND VIS IMPROVES. LARGER SCALE DRYING WILL QUICKLY
TAKE HOLD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IWD...MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
OFF SHORE...WITH VFR CEILINGS DOMINATING. THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS
AND DRIER AIR SWINGS IN.
SAW...A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP ACROSS N CENTRAL UPPER
MI WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT SAW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE VFR CEILINGS/VIS TAKE
HOLD AND REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS W-WNW WINDS KEEP THE FOCUS OF
LES TO THE W AND E.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
EXPECT NW GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE TO DIMINISH TO 30 KTS BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES SLACKENS...SO DROPPED THE GOING GALE
WARNING AT 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH WINDS/WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE ARCTIC COLD AND SUFFICIENT WAVE
ACTION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DECREASE WINDS...CAUSING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO DIMINISH.
AS THE HIGH EXITS EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WARMER SW WINDS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ006-007-
014-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>003-006-007.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ012-013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ266-
267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-249>251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
641 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED FM NCENTRAL ONTARIO S INTO THE GRT LKS...WITH DEEP CYC NW
FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ARND SFC LO PRES IN NRN QUEBEC. H5/H7/H85
TEMPS WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 00Z EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO
INTO MI WERE -45C/-35C/-30C. LLVL NW WINDS ARE UP TO 35-40 KTS PER
THE MQT 88D VWP UNDER THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR
LKS... AND THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY SFC WINDS AND THE BRUTAL
COLD THAT HAS DROPPED SFC TEMPS TO ARND -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W
HAVE CAUSED WIND CHILLS TO FALL AS LO AS -35F TO -45F OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. LES ALSO PERSISTS IN THE W TO NW WIND SN
BELTS OVER THE W AND NEAR LK SUP E OF PICTURED ROCKS. AN AREA OF
THICKER CLDS AND SOME SPOTTY -SN ARE SPREADING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO
TOWARD THE UPR LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD IN NW
ONTARIO ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE POLAR VORTEX.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON RECORD LO TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS/LES AND GOING HEADLINES.
TDAY...AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
SLIDING SEWD THRU NE LK SUP THIS MRNG WL MAINTAIN DEEPER MSTR/MIXED
LYR AND AID IN MORE WDSPRD LES. THE SHSN WL BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER OVER
THE E GIVEN LONGER FETCH/OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTENING OVER THE E NEAR
LK SUP...WHERE SHARPENED LAND BREEZE CNVGC WL BE THE RULE AND SLGTLY
WARMER TEMPS MODIFIED BY LONGER PASSAGE OVER LK SUP WL NOT HAMPER SN
GROWTH AS SGNFTLY AS OVER THE W. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV
TO THE E BY THIS AFTN...DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL
DOMINATE...WITH ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE DRYING THE MID LVLS AND
CAUSING INVRN BASES TO SINK TO 4-5K FT. SO EXPECT LES INTENSITY TO
DIMINISH. DEPARTURE OF CORE OF COLDEST AIR/POLAR VORTEX TO THE NE
INTO QUEBEC THAT CAUSES H85 TEMPS TO RISE FM ARND -25C AT 12Z TO
CLOSER TO -20C BY 00Z WED WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER A BIT COMPARED
TO MON. IN CONCERT WITH SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT/SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WINDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD EASE ABV WRNG THRESHOLDS THIS AFTN AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE LES SHOULD
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL. DID EXTEND THE GOING WRNG FOR A FEW HRS OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVY CRITERIA THAT WL PERSIST
THERE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTN.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS FARTHER TO THE NE...THE PRES
GRADIENT/LLVL WINDS WL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND H85 TEMPS WL RISE TO ARND
-18C BY 12Z WED UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THAT WL SHARPEN AN INVRN
ARND 3-4K FT. EVEN THOUGH A SLOW WARMING WL ALLOW FOR IMPROVED SN
GROWTH...LOWERING INVRN BASE SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W. WL NOT EXTEND LES ADVYS BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT
00Z THIS EVNG GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIMINISHING SN TRENDS/WINDS THAT WL
ALSO DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN/WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS WL MODERATE TNGT...SFC TEMPS MAY STILL PLUNGE SHARPLY AOB -20F
AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH EXPECTATION THAT LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WL ALLOW FOR MOCLR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTER WINDS. APRNT
TEMPS MAY REACH THE WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA...BUT OVERALL WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENUF TO JUSTIFY NO EXTENTION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES
WHERE THE TEMPS FALL MORE SHARPLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
FOR WED/WED NIGHT...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC LOW MOVING E AND A
SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
WNW-NW WIND LES WED AS WARMING TEMPS WILL PUT MORE OF THE LOW LEVELS
IN THE DGZ SO RATIOS WILL BE A BIT BETTER ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NE OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP OFFSET LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR WED NIGHT...EXPECT LES TO LINGER MAINLY OVER
NE UPPER MI AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES S OF THE CWA WHILE DIMINISHING
OVERALL. DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST MUCH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD AND EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THU INTO EARLY SAT IS TRICKY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW WED NIGHT...WITH NRN AND SRN JET STREAM INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH THESE TYPES OF
NRN AND SRN STREAM INTERACTIONS...THE SITUATION IS ALWAYS MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING ENERGY ALLOCATION. AREA
WIDE SYSTEM SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY AS ENERGY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCES AND
DEFINITELY FINE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. ONE THING MORE CERTAIN
IS THAT SW WINDS THU THROUGH FRI WILL RESULT AS THE HIGH EXITS E AND
THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SW FLOW LES
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPS AND THE NORMALLY TRICKY
NATURE OF LES IN THAT REGIME...WILL NOT ADD SIGNIFICANT EMPHASIS AT
THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING
CLOSER TO FREEZING FRI AND SAT.
SUN INTO MON ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS INDICATE A QUICK
HITTING DISTURBANCE GENERALLY MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...EVEN
GIVEN THE CURRENT GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT. BEST THAT CAN BE SAID AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION AND AT LEAST A QUICK SHOT OF WARMER TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING IS POSSIBLE. USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
CMX...GUSTY WNW FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WL BRING NEARLY CONTINUOUS
-SHSN/BLSN AND LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THIS MRNG. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MRNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE WL BRING
ABOUT A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SHSN. IN CONCERT WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS/BLSN ACCOMPANYING THE EASING OF THE PRES GRADIENT...THE VSBY
AT CMX WL LIKELY RISE INTO THE IFR RANGE LATER TDAY/TNGT.
IWD...WITH A VEERING OF THE LLVL WINDS BEHIND A PASSING DISTURBANCE
THIS MRNG...EXPECT LOWER LK CLDS/MVFR CIGS TO COME BACK OVER THIS
LOCATION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE FLOW BACKS A BIT AGAIN TNGT...
THE LO CLDS ARE LIKELY TO SCT OUT AGAIN.
SAW...ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE SC THIS MRNG RELATED TO THE PASSING UPR
DISTURBANCE...DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE W TO NW FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
EXPECT NW GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE TO DIMINISH TO 30 KTS BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES SLACKENS...SO DROPPED THE GOING GALE
WARNING AT 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH WINDS/WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE ARCTIC COLD AND SUFFICIENT WAVE
ACTION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DECREASE WINDS...CAUSING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO DIMINISH.
AS THE HIGH EXITS EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WARMER SW WINDS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003-006-007-012>014-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>003-006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-249>251.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ248.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
422 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP POLAR VORTEX
CENTERED FM NCENTRAL ONTARIO S INTO THE GRT LKS...WITH DEEP CYC NW
FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR ARND SFC LO PRES IN NRN QUEBEC. H5/H7/H85
TEMPS WITHIN THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR AT 00Z EXTENDING FM NW ONTARIO
INTO MI WERE -45C/-35C/-30C. LLVL NW WINDS ARE UP TO 35-40 KTS PER
THE MQT 88D VWP UNDER THE FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPR
LKS... AND THE COMBINATION OF THE STEADY SFC WINDS AND THE BRUTAL
COLD THAT HAS DROPPED SFC TEMPS TO ARND -20F OVER THE INTERIOR W
HAVE CAUSED WIND CHILLS TO FALL AS LO AS -35F TO -45F OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. LES ALSO PERSISTS IN THE W TO NW WIND SN
BELTS OVER THE W AND NEAR LK SUP E OF PICTURED ROCKS. AN AREA OF
THICKER CLDS AND SOME SPOTTY -SN ARE SPREADING SEWD THRU NW ONTARIO
TOWARD THE UPR LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHRTWV DIGGING SSEWD IN NW
ONTARIO ON THE WRN FLANK OF THE POLAR VORTEX.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON RECORD LO TEMPS/WIND
CHILLS/LES AND GOING HEADLINES.
TDAY...AREA OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
SLIDING SEWD THRU NE LK SUP THIS MRNG WL MAINTAIN DEEPER MSTR/MIXED
LYR AND AID IN MORE WDSPRD LES. THE SHSN WL BE SOMEWHAT HEAVIER OVER
THE E GIVEN LONGER FETCH/OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTENING OVER THE E NEAR
LK SUP...WHERE SHARPENED LAND BREEZE CNVGC WL BE THE RULE AND SLGTLY
WARMER TEMPS MODIFIED BY LONGER PASSAGE OVER LK SUP WL NOT HAMPER SN
GROWTH AS SGNFTLY AS OVER THE W. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHRTWV
TO THE E BY THIS AFTN...DNVA/LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC WL
DOMINATE...WITH ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE DRYING THE MID LVLS AND
CAUSING INVRN BASES TO SINK TO 4-5K FT. SO EXPECT LES INTENSITY TO
DIMINISH. DEPARTURE OF CORE OF COLDEST AIR/POLAR VORTEX TO THE NE
INTO QUEBEC THAT CAUSES H85 TEMPS TO RISE FM ARND -25C AT 12Z TO
CLOSER TO -20C BY 00Z WED WL ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER A BIT COMPARED
TO MON. IN CONCERT WITH SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT/SLOWLY DIMINISHING
WINDS...WIND CHILLS SHOULD EASE ABV WRNG THRESHOLDS THIS AFTN AND
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE LES SHOULD
SUBSIDE A BIT AS WELL. DID EXTEND THE GOING WRNG FOR A FEW HRS OVER
THE INTERIOR W HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR ADVY CRITERIA THAT WL PERSIST
THERE A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTN.
TNGT...AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETREATS FARTHER TO THE NE...THE PRES
GRADIENT/LLVL WINDS WL SLOWLY SLACKEN AND H85 TEMPS WL RISE TO ARND
-18C BY 12Z WED UNDER GENERAL SUBSIDENCE THAT WL SHARPEN AN INVRN
ARND 3-4K FT. EVEN THOUGH A SLOW WARMING WL ALLOW FOR IMPROVED SN
GROWTH...LOWERING INVRN BASE SHOULD LIMIT LES INTENSITY ESPECIALLY
OVER THE W. WL NOT EXTEND LES ADVYS BEYOND SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT
00Z THIS EVNG GIVEN THE EXPECTED DIMINISHING SN TRENDS/WINDS THAT WL
ALSO DIMINISH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BLSN/WIND CHILLS. ALTHOUGH H85
TEMPS WL MODERATE TNGT...SFC TEMPS MAY STILL PLUNGE SHARPLY AOB -20F
AWAY FM LK MODERATION WITH EXPECTATION THAT LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WL ALLOW FOR MOCLR SKIES IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHTER WINDS. APRNT
TEMPS MAY REACH THE WIND CHILL ADVY CRITERIA...BUT OVERALL WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT ENUF TO JUSTIFY NO EXTENTION OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES
WHERE THE TEMPS FALL MORE SHARPLY AT THE MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
FOR WED/WED NIGHT...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN A SFC LOW MOVING E AND A
SFC HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE W. WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE IN
WNW-NW WIND LES WED AS WARMING TEMPS WILL PUT MORE OF THE LOW LEVELS
IN THE DGZ SO RATIOS WILL BE A BIT BETTER ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING NE OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE
SOME SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP OFFSET LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS. FOR WED NIGHT...EXPECT LES TO LINGER MAINLY OVER
NE UPPER MI AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES S OF THE CWA WHILE DIMINISHING
OVERALL. DID NOT CHANGE FORECAST MUCH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED
GOOD AND EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
THU INTO EARLY SAT IS TRICKY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NW WED NIGHT...WITH NRN AND SRN JET STREAM INTERACTIONS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE WRN CONUS. WITH THESE TYPES OF
NRN AND SRN STREAM INTERACTIONS...THE SITUATION IS ALWAYS MORE
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING ENERGY ALLOCATION. AREA
WIDE SYSTEM SNOW IS A POSSIBILITY AS ENERGY LIFTS NE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...BUT OVERALL CHANCES AND
DEFINITELY FINE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. ONE THING MORE CERTAIN
IS THAT SW WINDS THU THROUGH FRI WILL RESULT AS THE HIGH EXITS E AND
THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SW FLOW LES
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT WITH WARMING TEMPS AND THE NORMALLY TRICKY
NATURE OF LES IN THAT REGIME...WILL NOT ADD SIGNIFICANT EMPHASIS AT
THIS TIME. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE 850MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 0C FRI INTO EARLY SAT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RISING
CLOSER TO FREEZING FRI AND SAT.
SUN INTO MON ARE EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS INDICATE A QUICK
HITTING DISTURBANCE GENERALLY MOVING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...BUT DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN...EVEN
GIVEN THE CURRENT GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT. BEST THAT CAN BE SAID AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION AND AT LEAST A QUICK SHOT OF WARMER TEMPS
AROUND FREEZING IS POSSIBLE. USED A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
WITH WNW FLOW...MAINLY KCMX WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW.
THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING OF THE SMALL SNOWFLAKES AT
WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KCMX. KIWD IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE ENOUGH LIGHT SNOW FOR MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCMX BY TUE AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DIMINISH SLOWLY AND DEEPER MOISTURE DEPARTS/INVERSIONS
FALL...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE AT KSAW WITH A DOWNSLOPE WNW WIND
COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
EXPECT NW GALES TO 35-40 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL LAKE TO DIMINISH TO 30 KTS BY THIS EVENING AS THE PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES SLACKENS...SO DROPPED THE GOING GALE
WARNING AT 00Z WED. ALTHOUGH WINDS/WAVES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE ARCTIC COLD AND SUFFICIENT WAVE
ACTION WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DECREASE WINDS...CAUSING HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TO DIMINISH.
AS THE HIGH EXITS EAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WARMER SW WINDS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...LEADING TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
SATURDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003-006-007-012>014-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ001>003-006-007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR LSZ162-243>245-248>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ265-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
THANKS TO SUNNY SKIES AND OUR SOMEWHAT OLD AND NON-PRISTINE SNOWPACK
WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO MIX TO AROUND 925 MB. BUT OUR STAY ABOVE
ZERO WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS
COLD AIR OUTBREAK BEING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WRN/CENTRAL MN. THE CULPRIT FOR THE COLD NIGHT TONIGHT IS THE 1030MB
HIGH UP IN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE SETTLING OVER MN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE US OUR FIRST GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO DECOUPLE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SETTING UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE? A STRIP OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE TWIN CITIES BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A QUICK PEEK OUT THE WINDOW SHOWS THAT IR
SATELLITE IS EMBELLISHING THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER A
BIT...AS IT IS A RATHER THIN ALTO CU DECK...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA OF THE RAP WITH THIS AREA OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS
A REINFORCING SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVES IN. WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV/MET...WHICH RESULTED IN LOWS BETWEEN 28 AND 33 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO BASICALLY NORTHWEST OF A BENSON TO KANABEC LINE. UNDER
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...LADYSMITH WAS ABLE TO DROP DOWN TO
-30...SO AS LONG AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DON/T STICK AROUND FOR TOO
LONG...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SEEING TEMPS OF -30 OR COLDER IN OUR
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS LIKE BENSON AND LITTLE FALLS.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND TO SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES CRASH TO BETWEEN 25 BELOW ZERO IN
SOUTHERN MN TO THE LOWER 40S BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5 MPH OR LESS...SO WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO
GO WITH NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES /DUE TO LACK OF WINDS/...BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WHERE FORECAST LOWS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE COOLER
THAN -25 GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 40 BELOW...WHICH IS INTO WARNING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DECIDED TO
STICK WITH THE ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THIS WILL BE
NOTHING LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WE WILL NOT SEE
MUCH MIXING...AS EVIDENCED BY NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 900 AND 925 MB...BUT ONLY
MAKING IT TO 950MB OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEDNESDAY BEING COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. AFTER BLENDING
IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND RAW MODEL DATA...ENDED UP WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN
GOING WITH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY AND COLD FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS UNTIL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
MN/WI BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLOSELY MIRROR
TONIGHTS. FARTHER WEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE A NON- DIURNAL TREND IN PLACE. A PWAT FORECAST
OFF THE GFS 07.12 HAS 0.5 INCHES RETURNING ACROSS MINNESOTA...AND
AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. THIS NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX IS AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS OF NOW THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL EAST
OF I-35...SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY...WITH NEAR 30 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAYS HIGHS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 30S...BUT COULD SEE LOW
40S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE.
CURRENTLY...THE EC 07.12 IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND WOULD FAVOR A
WARMER SOLUTION. FOR NOW HAVE A BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR A WARM
SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EXISTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
VFR THROUGH PERIOD. SOME HIGHER LEVEL MID CLOUD DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THIS
WILL GRADUALLY DRY UP OVERNIGHT. LIGHT W-NW WINDS BECOMING L/V
OVER THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST. VFR THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN/-IP. WIND SSW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
356 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BACK ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
THANKS TO SUNNY SKIES AND OUR SOMEWHAT OLD AND NON-PRISTINE SNOWPACK
WHICH HAS ALLOWED US TO MIX TO AROUND 925 MB. BUT OUR STAY ABOVE
ZERO WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH PERHAPS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS
COLD AIR OUTBREAK BEING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR
WRN/CENTRAL MN. THE CULPRIT FOR THE COLD NIGHT TONIGHT IS THE 1030MB
HIGH UP IN SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL BE SETTLING OVER MN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE US OUR FIRST GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO DECOUPLE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SETTING UP IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE? A STRIP OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT STRETCHES FROM THE TWIN CITIES BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. A QUICK PEEK OUT THE WINDOW SHOWS THAT IR
SATELLITE IS EMBELLISHING THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUD COVER A
BIT...AS IT IS A RATHER THIN ALTO CU DECK...SO WILL STICK WITH THE
IDEA OF THE RAP WITH THIS AREA OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS
A REINFORCING SHOT OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVES IN. WITH CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED...FAVORED THE FORECAST TOWARD A BLEND OF THE BIAS
CORRECTED MAV/MET...WHICH RESULTED IN LOWS BETWEEN 28 AND 33 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO BASICALLY NORTHWEST OF A BENSON TO KANABEC LINE. UNDER
SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...LADYSMITH WAS ABLE TO DROP DOWN TO
-30...SO AS LONG AS THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DON/T STICK AROUND FOR TOO
LONG...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SEEING TEMPS OF -30 OR COLDER IN OUR
TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS LIKE BENSON AND LITTLE FALLS.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
WIND TO SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES CRASH TO BETWEEN 25 BELOW ZERO IN
SOUTHERN MN TO THE LOWER 40S BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 5 MPH OR LESS...SO WOULD HAVE PREFERRED TO
GO WITH NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES /DUE TO LACK OF WINDS/...BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES WHERE FORECAST LOWS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE COOLER
THAN -25 GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 40 BELOW...WHICH IS INTO WARNING
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...DECIDED TO
STICK WITH THE ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THIS WILL BE
NOTHING LIKE WHAT WAS SEEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...WE WILL NOT SEE
MUCH MIXING...AS EVIDENCED BY NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY MIXING UP TO BETWEEN 900 AND 925 MB...BUT ONLY
MAKING IT TO 950MB OR LESS FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEDNESDAY BEING COOLER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. AFTER BLENDING
IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND RAW MODEL DATA...ENDED UP WITH FORECAST
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD BEEN
GOING WITH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE UPPER MIDWEST DRY AND COLD FOR A FEW
MORE DAYS UNTIL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE...WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND PRECIP CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE
MN/WI BORDER...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLOSELY MIRROR
TONIGHTS. FARTHER WEST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE A NON- DIURNAL TREND IN PLACE. A PWAT FORECAST
OFF THE GFS 07.12 HAS 0.5 INCHES RETURNING ACROSS MINNESOTA...AND
AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WISCONSIN RIVER
VALLEY. THIS NORTHWARD MOISTURE FLUX IS AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS OF NOW THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL EAST
OF I-35...SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
CONSIDERABLY...WITH NEAR 30 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAYS HIGHS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 30S...BUT COULD SEE LOW
40S DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE.
CURRENTLY...THE EC 07.12 IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND WOULD FAVOR A
WARMER SOLUTION. FOR NOW HAVE A BLENDED GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR A WARM
SUNDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EXISTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
FAIRLY BENIGN TAF PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED...AS SFC RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD NOW WILL REPLACED BY...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS OVER NRN MN WILL NOT COME MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THEIR
CURRENT POSITION...AS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
AS WELL...MEANING ITS MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH W TO
NW WINDS OF 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH NOT MUCH VARIATION
EXPECTED FROM CURRENT TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN/-IP. WIND SSW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
353 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
THE VERY COLD CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAIN THE FOCUS OF
ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FROM PORT WING TO SAXON THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
COLD ARCTIC UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO ROTATE TO THE
EAST/NE THIS MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS...EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...SLIDES SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER SERN MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO WILL
DROP SWD THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA THIS MORNING
AND TRIGGER A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION.
THE BULK OF THE POLAR AIR HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH COLD AIR TO DROP TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...AND WITH W WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN IN THE -30 TO -45 DEG F RANGE. WIND
CHILL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY...WITH SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL MN DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. OVERALL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER TODAY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN AS THE SFC PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN/CENTRAL MN...AND SKIES CLEARING OUT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN DROPPING TEMPS
TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S BELOW ZERO. NOT SURE THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS NAM OR ECMWF ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
TOO WELL. THE 00Z RUN OF THE GEM IS THE ONLY SHOWING THE COLDEST
AREA ALIGNED WITH THE RIDGE...WITH LOWS 30 TO 35 BELOW ZERO FROM
FARGO/GRAND FORKS TO THE TWIN CITIES...AND AROUND -30 AT BRAINERD
AND HINCKLEY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE INTL BORDER.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...AND
REMAIN 5 TO 10 MPH TO THE NORTH WHERE A WEAK GRADIENT WILL LINGER.
SO...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO ADVISORY AND WARNING
CRITERIA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN...-40S NORTH...-30S SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL LET THE
WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORY THIS MORNING CONTINUE BEFORE
ISSUING ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RISE IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WEST WINDS. ADDITIONAL WARMING CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A NICE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...PUSHING A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE CWA ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH
HIGH TEMPS 10 TO 15 ABOVE NEARLY EVERYWHERE. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
FARTHER NORTH AND SLOWER THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POPS NORTH A LITTLE. EVEN SO...IF THE MODELS MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY ON THIS WAVE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED.
THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PERIODS OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL THAN IT IS NOW...WITH A STRONG OR CUT
OFF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...THOUGH THE GIST OF THE
PATTERN IS GENERALLY THE SAME. A TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND INTERACT WITH A PLUME OF WARM MOIST
AIR. THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM MISSES THE FORECAST AREA TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
BRINGING SOME 850MB TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE ZERO INTO THE AREA WITH
THIS WAVE. WHILE THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WILL BE
MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER AIR AND MIXED PRECIP TYPES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30...WITH TEENS TO AROUND 20 FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY WE HAVE MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM...NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. AGAIN...SOME FAIRLY WARM AIR BEING
DRAWN INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPE
ISSUES. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT COLDER
AIR WILL COME BACK FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MORE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH MORE MVFR CEILINGS. MOST TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS. THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING
A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS...AND WE USED A COMBINATION OF
THE RAP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE/OBS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. THE RAP DOES SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THE LONGEST AND THAT WOULD IMPACT
KINL/KHIB. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -9 -21 0 -15 / 0 0 0 0
INL -12 -30 -3 -18 / 0 0 0 10
BRD -3 -24 1 -16 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -8 -23 3 -17 / 0 0 0 0
ASX -7 -18 3 -12 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1136 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH 11 PM OBSERVATIONS
FROM 20 TO 26 BELOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WE HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWS MORE CLOUDS
NEARING OR JUST ENTERING OUR WESTERN ZONES...WITH MORE IN THE
ARROWHEAD. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS CLOUD COVER VERY
WELL...BUT IT DOES APPEAR IT WILL HOLD IN THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY
MORNING AT LEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
THE NORTHLAND CAN CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
WITH VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. THE
PARTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO
AROUND -30 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM MOS GUIDANCE WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE SKIES COULD
BE CLOUDIER THOUGH DEPENDING ON IF SOME CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTH OUT
OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO CAN HOLD TOGETHER TONIGHT...SO
SOME AREAS COULD BE A BIT WARMER. THE NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF 45 TO 55 DEGREES BELOW ZERO UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER...WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW DUE TO WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY SHOULD
BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WARM UP ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGREES FROM
TODAY TO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WISCONSIN THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.
THE WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION DOES NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR
ANY PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
THE ARCTIC ORIGIN AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPLY INTO
THE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO RANGE ONCE AGAIN. SOME 30S BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
RIGHT AROUND ZERO FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...AND MAY TOP
ZERO IN THE SOUTH. IT IS AT ABOUT THIS POINT THAT WE START TIPPING
BACK IN THE OTHER DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO...BUT A BIG WARMUP IS STILL IN
STORE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BY MIDWEEK WE
TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SET US
UP FOR A PRETTY DRAMATIC JANUARY THAW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAYING ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND WAA
CONTINUING. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH HIGHS AROUND
30 ON SUNDAY. NOTHING MAJOR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE GFS DOES HINT AT A LITTLE MORE WELL
DEFINED SYSTEM ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
LATEST SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW MORE CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH MORE MVFR CEILINGS. MOST TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME MVFR CEILINGS. THE MODELS ARE NOT DOING
A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THESE CLOUDS...AND WE USED A COMBINATION OF
THE RAP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM SATELLITE/OBS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS. THE RAP DOES SHOW THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA THE LONGEST AND THAT WOULD IMPACT
KINL/KHIB. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -29 -6 -19 1 / 0 0 0 0
INL -31 -12 -29 -3 / 0 0 0 0
BRD -29 -3 -23 1 / 0 0 0 0
HYR -29 -6 -21 3 / 10 0 0 0
ASX -24 -4 -19 5 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
025-026-033>038.
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
559 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EASTWARDS. ON AVERAGE...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW AND
OTHERS WITH LESS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING WHILE STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ALONG A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD IA/IL. IN RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA WILL SPREAD
W/E TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MODELS
INDICATE PRESENCE OF DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND WAA/LIFT OVER THE
LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE
LLVL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM BUT IS PRESENT NONTHELESS. OUR AREA
IS ON THE BUFFER OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW POPS AND THE GFS HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS
FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE RAP IS THE MOST ROBUST IN SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND THE HRRR IS TRENDING TOWARD A FOG
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE SREF DO NOT. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY WILL TREND WITH MORE OF STRATUS VS FOG FOR
NOW AND HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE RETURN FLOW AND AS CLOUDS
DEPART WEST/EAST. HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SOME DEGREE WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE UPSWING COMPARED TO
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST 24 HRS OR SO.
THURSDAY EVENING STARTS OUT WITH W/SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE REGION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS..THIS
TROUGH SLIDES E/SE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL WORK THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z THE 5/700MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP THROUGH ERN NEB/KS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY PERIOD IS
NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND BECAUSE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN A E/SE SHIFT OF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. ALREADY BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE SFC SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SRLY WINDS SET UP OVER THE CWA. THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THAT...WITH MODELS ALSO
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE SWRLY FLOW AT 850MB...HELPING WITH SOME
WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z...WITH ONLY THE FZDZ MENTION GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH...AS THAT SRLY FLOW HELPS TO MOISTEN UP LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. THROUGH THE 12-18Z PERIOD...INHERITED FORECAST
ONLY HAD 50 POPS GOING IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WAS FINE
KEEPING THAT GOING...BUT DID TRIM THE WRN EDGE. THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MUCH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF THE LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BEING
E/SE OF THE CWA...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC/LOWER LEVEL COOL
FRONT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER. ALONG WITH THIS...MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE 7/500
MB TROUGH AXIS...THEN SWINGING THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...SO ADDED SOME LOW POPS BACK WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THAT FAR WEST BEHIND THE SFC/LOWER LEVEL FRONT
WONT BE AS GOOD...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THAT
MID LEVEL AXIS TO AMOUNT TO A LOT. ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH PRECIP THE CWA WILL ACTUALLY SEE...THE THERMAL PROFILE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS IS ALSO STILL IN QUESTION. STILL A CONCERN WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARMER LAYER OFF THE SFC...ITS NOT OVERLY
WARM...SO WHERE THE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING...SOME QUESTION
WITH WHETHER IT WOULD FALL AS FZRA OR SLEET. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON
SFC TEMPS...KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING...SO KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH SFC TEMPS WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THE 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...SO HAVE PTYPE MENTION AS RA/SN. PLENTY OF
THINGS TO IRON OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.
AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FORECAST
REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING TO SEE
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES.
MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS AT LEAST RISE INTO THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY IS THE ONLY OTHER TIME FRAME WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
GOING...AND THEY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF OVER THE AREA...WITH REALLY NO CHANCE FOR BETTER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK IN BEFORE IT GETS HERE. ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS/GEM A
TOUCH QUICKER SHOWING IT MAINLY A DAYTIME SUNDAY EVENT...WITH THE
ECMWF LINGERING THINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND COOLER
AIR - WHICH LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
40S...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT MAY SEE SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
LIVED BATCH OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF ALL OF THIS IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. HIGHS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO TANK TONIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN OVER
TIME. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAN
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...BUT DISCOUNTING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTIONS DUE TO RECENT INITIATION ERRORS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1221 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SNOW CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES. RADAR ACTIVITY PICKED UP IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVED ACROSS NEBRASKA. KBBW
HAS REPORTED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3SM AND FROM THE RADAR TRENDS
WOULD ASSUME THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO ADDED IN LOW
CHANCES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 91. THINKING ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINIMAL...UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IF ANYTHING. CLOUD
COVER HAS STAYED IN PLACE WHICH HAS LIMITED WARMING TODAY. AND
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT EITHER STAYING STEADY OR COOLING THROUGH
THE DAY EVEN IF MOST AREAS CAN MIX YET THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE
HARD TO REACH THE UPPER 30S. THE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP
AND CLEAR ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST SO COULD
STILL SEE SOME LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE MID 30S BUT THIS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO PLACES WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
KLNX RADAR IN VCP31 IS GROWING VERY QUIET WITH ECHO RETURNS
RAPIDLY DECREASING. IT APPEARS OUR WEAK UA DISTURBANCE IS EXITING
THE FORECAST AREA. A NEW FORECAST IS OUT FOR FLURRIES ENDING THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE...ANGLED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO SRN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY
MORNING. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND INTO WRN ALBERTA BY THIS TIME SETTING UP A SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC
RIDGE MAINTAINING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST ZONES COULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE REST OF THE FCST AREA REMAINS
OVERCAST. THE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE IN THE NAM...GFS
AND RAP MODELS BUT GIVEN THE UPSLOPE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THESE MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST.
OVERALL THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CLOUDS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE LIGHT SNOW FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NO SFC OBS
REPORTING LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND RADAR
SUGGESTS THE AREA OF SNOW IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE FORECAST
CONTINUES LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WITH FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NOTE THAT SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST 2 INCH SNOW TOTALS
IN PLACES BUT A LOOK AT THE NEDOR CAMS INDICATES LESS THAN AN
INCH ACCUMULATIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS VISIBLE AND NONE OF THE CAMS
SUGGESTED MODERATE SNOW WAS FALLING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR
HIGHWAY 281 WITH WARMER READINGS RISING TO THE LOWER 30S WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB AND THE ERN PANHANDLE. LOWS TONIGHT FALL
INTO TEENS. A 30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
LOWS ON THE WARM SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
ROLLER COAST OF TEMPS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS GOING UP FOR THURSDAY
AS WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING WEAK TROUGH. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID 30S EAST TO LOWER 40S SW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR EXISTING SNOW AS AN INCH OR SO MAY CAUSE TEMPS TO BE
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST BY A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER SW WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WHICH WILL HELP IN MIXING THE LOWER
LEVELS.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. SFC
LOW TRACKS FROM NW TX TO THE NE...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODELS. LIFT/PRECIP DOES SEE MINOR PATH ADJUSTMENTS...HOWEVER
MODELS ALL KEEP IT TO THE SE OF THE CWA. AS WINDS BECOME NW
DURING THE DAY...A BRIEF MIXING WILL STILL HELP TO WARM TEMPS TO
SEASONAL NORMS...POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY WITH STRONG WAA.
TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE EARLY...PENDING SOME MINOR TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO ARRIVAL OF WARMER AIR. EITHER WAY...WARMER FOR
SATURDAY WITH 40S FOR MOST AREAS...AND EVEN 50 FOR SW.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MID 20S TO AROUND 30 EXPECTED SUNDAY MORN. AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...WITH 850 MB WINDS NEAR 50 KTS. MODELS DO NOT MIX ALL THIS
DOWN...HOWEVER DO EXPECT A WINDY DAY AND WILL MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE SOME WEAK
LIFT WITH THE WAVE. MOISTURE IS LIMITED INITIALLY AND WILL BE A
TOP DOWN SATURATION. ANOTHER ISSUE IS TEMPS WITH THIS WAVE. STILL
SEEING SOME WARM AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S. LONG RANGE SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST SNOW EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH WARMING TEMPS AND A CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN.
FOR NEXT WEEK...RIDGE AMPLIFIES OUT WEST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWS ANOTHER CLIPPER TO BACK ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...WHILE THE EC IS A LITTLE STRONG WITH THE RIDGE AND
KEEPS THE CLIPPER TO THE NORTHEAST. PENDING HOW FAR TO THE SW THE
CLIPPER DOES PUSHES...WILL PLAY A BIG PART TO THE FORECAST. THUS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE. THOUGHT IS FOR
THE WARMER/DRIER AIR TO WIN...AS MOST OF THE WINTER THE BULK OF
THE WAVES HAVE GONE EAST OF THE AREA. THAT SAID...COOLER AIR AND
POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIP /FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES/ CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BEHIND IT...SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP CLEAR THE
CLOUDS OUT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THE INVERSION SETS IN...MOISTURE
WILL GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS SO EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KVTN AND KLBF OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF COLORADO THURSDAY MORNING AND
AHEAD OF IT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
SCOUR OUT THE STRATUS SO EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BROOKS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BROOKS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1130 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SNOW CHANCES TODAY AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT HAD VERY LOW VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW.
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE SNOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TO THE SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING A BAND OF SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH THEN MOVING IT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING
AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CONCERN IS THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF BOTH ARE MUCH
WEAKER WITH PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR DOES NOT GO OUT VERY FAR INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SNOW WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE A HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND LESS
THAN A HALF INCH IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THE SNOW
MOVES OUT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT SOME AND THE DENDRITIC LAYER IS
DRY..BUT LATE TONIGHT THERE IS A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER THAT IS COLD.
THIS COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD JUST THE FAR SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST THERE IS A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE
BUT IT IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED BEFORE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH TO SEE IF THAT MOIST LAYER CONTINUES OR WHETHER IT WILL DRY
OUT.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WHICH IS VERY NEAR TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW.
STILL EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF TOWARD MORNING SO WILL
LEAVE FORECAST HIGHS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP
DOWN TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 10 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BY 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE FROM THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN ALL SUGGEST THIS MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
BY 12Z FRIDAY...INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 00Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA
OF LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REALIZED OVER THE
PANHANDLE OF TEXAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AND INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
SHOULD PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS OF MID LEVEL OMEGA
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO POTIONS OF THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS
FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC AND SREF-MEAN. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE WEST/NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS OMEGA AXIS WILL CLIP PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OUR CWA STILL EXPECTED TO OBSERVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...AS WELL AS MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE PAST 24 HOURS...OPTED TO KEEP POPS GOING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY...AND ACTUALLY INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA INTO THE 40-50% RANGE.
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR CWA ON
FRIDAY WILL START IN THE LOWER 20S...BUT EVENTUALLY RISE RISE INTO
THE 30S TO NEAR 40 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
FROM THE ACROSS OUR CWA...PER THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER WILL EXIST...PRIMARILY BETWEEN
750MB AND 900MB...THROUGH 15Z OR 18Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...FREEZING
RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG...TO GRAND ISLAND AND
FULLERTON...WITH CHANCES FOR SUCH ACTIVITY INCREASING AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THESE SAME FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
ALSO SUGGEST WE WILL LIKELY BE WAITING FOR THE MID TO LOWER
TROPOSPHERE TO SATURATE UNTIL AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...THUS IS WHY THE
AFOREMENTIONED POPS WERE NOT INTRODUCED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...BASED ON GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THE TEMPERATURE THROUGH
MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 18Z AND AS
A RESULT...FREEZING RAIN WORDING COMES TO AN END IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BY 18Z FRIDAY...WITH RAIN THEN EXPECTED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
TAKING AN AVERAGE OF THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN
AND WPC GUIDANCE PROVIDES LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NEAR THE TRI-CITIES...TO AROUND 0.10"
FARTHER SOUTHEAST DURING THE 12-18Z FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.05" ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THIS IT
CERTAINLY SEEMS AS THOUGH WE ARE HEADING TOWARDS AN ADVISORY-
WORTHY EVENT ON FRIDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICING APPEARING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...WE ARE STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS
FROM THIS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...AT WHICH TIME SUFFICIENT SAMPLING BY THE
UPPER AIR NETWORK SHOULD ALLOW MODEL GUIDANCE TO REALLY NAIL DOWN
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. PROVIDED THE CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HWO
SOMEWHAT VAGUE WITH RESPECT TO ICING AMOUNTS...BUT CERTAINLY
MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE WAITING FOR THE MID
TO LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO SATURATE THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRIDAY. THAT
BEING SAID...PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR RISING DEW
POINT VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ALL
SUGGEST 0-0.5KM RH VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90-100% RANGE ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE-THIRD OF OUR CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
FRIDAY. THESE SAME SETS OF GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST LOW LEVEL
TURBULENT MIXING ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KTS WILL BE PRESENT DURING
THE SAME TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
PHILLIPSBURG TO HEBRON....IN THE HWO AND GRIDS 06-12Z FRIDAY.
BEYOND THE DAY FRIDAY...THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD REMAINS DRY...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SUGGEST A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND
ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING ~20% POPS TO MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE
POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
A WARM LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 SATURDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL ALSO LIKELY BE COMMON DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT KGRI AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CIGS MAINLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
BUT COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR AT TIMES. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER THURSDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
825 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE DAY WILL START WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH WEAKER BUT PERSISTENT LAKE SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO THE
REGION THURSDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOW PLUME HAS SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD VARIATION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY DRIFT A FEW MILES
SOUTH THEN RETURN NORTH A COUPLE MILES AGAIN AROUND NOON...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING OF THE
LAKE ERIE BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE FROM ABOUT 1 INCH PER
HOUR TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS A WEAKENING AFTER 20Z WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER SHEAR 00Z TO 06Z.
WIND ALONG THE FLANKS OF THE LAKE SNOW BAND WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. 00Z NAM12 BUFKIT SHOWS A 55KT JET AT
ABOUT 3KFT TO 5KFT WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LOWER LEVELS OF THE LAKE
PLUMES. THIS WILL MIX DOWN AS GUSTS ALONG THE FLANKS OF THE SNOW
PLUME AND PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND EVEN HANGING JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL
WARNING AS THE WIND PICK UP DURING THE DAY EVEN AS THE TEMPS CLIMB
OUT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... LAKE SNOW BAND WILL BE MORE INTENSE WITH A
LONGER FETCH ALONG THE FULL LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL FOCUS
ON THE CENTRAL TUG HILL WITH THE VERY GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
BE AT THE TRIPLE JUNCTION OF JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.
THE BAND WILL WANDER ONLY SLIGHTLY...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH DURING
THE MORNING INTO SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES.
THERE IS ANOTHER MORE DIFFUSE BAND OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHICH
WILL PROVIDE HALF INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BUILD STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH 2
TO 3 FOOT TOTAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ERIE
COUNTY... BOUNDED BY A FOOT OR SO IN NORTHERNMOST CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND 15 TO 18 INCH
AMOUNTS INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND GENESEE COUNTIES. THE TUG HILL WILL
MAINTAIN ITS REPUTATION OF ACCUMULATING A MORE PRODIGIOUS SNOWFALL
ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 FEET...OR MORE...AS SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4
INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL TIME DEALING WITH FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
ONGOING WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. PROBABLY LOOKING
AT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES OFF LAKE
ERIE...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT HEADLINE
WORTHY STILL BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD WIND DOWN COMPLETELY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA...WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRASTICALLY
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. AIR MASS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS MODIFICATION
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANGE TO MILDER WEATHER WILL COME AS A RESULT OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE HIGH LATITUDES. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...PERSISTENT RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA NORTHWARDS ACROSS ALASKA TO NORTHERN SIBERIA
HAS COMBINED WITH A POLAR VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC TO
ESTABLISH FREQUENT CROSS POLAR FLOWS. THIS PATTERN HAS FUNNELED
FRIGID AIR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHERE H925/H85 TEMPERATURES THE PAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE
DABBLED CLOSE TO HISTORICAL LOWS. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
AVOID THIS PATTERN DURING THE PAST FEW WINTERS...BUT THE CURRENT
NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS
KIND OF HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW.
THIS GLACIAL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK
THOUGH...AS THE TENACIOUS RIDGING DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL WEAKEN AND
ALLOW THE POLAR VORTEX TO RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS NUNAVUT AND THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE FEED OF
HYPERBOREAL AIR WHILE ENCOURAGING A STRONG PACIFIC BASED CURRENT TO
FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH STRIKINGLY MILDER AIR.
RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL AMPLIFY A BIT ON FRIDAY
WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE MILDER
AIR NORTHWARDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 0C BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. READINGS MAY TICKLE THE 40 DEG MARK IN THE
NORMALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY.
A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS AT LEAST A SUGGESTION BY THE ECMWF OF A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THIS WOULD ONLY ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AND GIVEN THE WARM FLOW (H85 TEMPS AS HIGH AS
+5C) AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SYNOPTIC
PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE PROCESS.
FOR SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...BUT IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE H85-7 FLOW.
FURTHERMORE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP A
SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD KEEP
OUR REGION WITHIN A RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW SO THAT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN VISIT THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LIFR AT TIMES FOR KBUF TODAY. THE LAKE SNOW
BANDS WILL IMPACT KBUF AND KART THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN EXTEND
TO KROC WITH A LESSER IMPACT. KIAG AND KJHW SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BETTER THAN UPPER MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL VARY
LITTLE IN POSITION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES. GUSTY WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR TO MVFR IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.
THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH IFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY COLD AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN ENHANCED WAVE ACTION
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THE LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
RETREATS INTO THE POLAR REGIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN JUST TIGHT ENOUGH
TO KEEP WAVES FROM SUBSIDING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HYDROGRAPHS AND VISUAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS
FORMED DURING THE BRIEF WARM-UP LAST NIGHT ON BUFFALO...CAYUGA...
AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO AREA. AN ICE JAM HAS ALSO
FORMED ON THE GENESEE RIVER NEAR PORTAGEVILLE.
EVEN THOUGH ICE JAMS HAVE FORMED...TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO VERY
COLD VALUES HAVE COMPLETELY SHUT OFF RUNOFF. WITH JUST BASE FLOWS
RUNNING THROUGH THE CREEKS THE ICE JAMES WILL PROBABLY NOT PRODUCE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THEY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED NEXT
WEEKEND HOWEVER WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN AND RUNOFF BEGINS.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE KBUF WSR-88D IS EXPERIENCING DEGRADED SIGNAL STRENGTH.
INTERNAL CALIBRATIONS ARE TRYING TO COMPENSATE...BUT THE RADAR IS
LIKELY READING RETURNS THAT ARE 5-8 DBZ BELOW WHAT WOULD NORMALLY
BE EXPECTED. THE RADAR WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT OF SERVICE TO FIX
THE ISSUE...AND THIS WILL NOT BE DONE UNTIL A FAIR WEATHER DAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>006-
010>014-019>021-085.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ010>012-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003-013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ019-
020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
EQUIPMENT...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
719 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
THE DAY WILL START WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION AND VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT EXTREMELY LOW WIND CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH WEAKER BUT PERSISTENT LAKE SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO THE
REGION THURSDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND ARRIVES AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...
EAST OF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOW PLUME HAS SHOWN ONLY SLIGHT
NORTHWARD VARIATION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY DRIFT A FEW MILES
SOUTH THEN RETURN NORTH A COUPLE MILES AGAIN AROUND NOON...THEN BACK
TO THE SOUTH AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A STRENGTHENING OF THE
LAKE ERIE BAND WITH SNOWFALL RATES TO INCREASE FROM ABOUT 1 INCH PER
HOUR TO ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS A WEAKENING AFTER 20Z WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER SHEAR 00Z TO 06Z.
WIND ALONG THE FLANKS OF THE LAKE SNOW BAND WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. 00Z NAM12 BUFKIT SHOWS A 55KT JET AT
ABOUT 3KFT TO 5KFT WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LOWER LEVELS OF THE LAKE
PLUMES. THIS WILL MIX DOWN AS GUSTS ALONG THE FLANKS OF THE SNOW
PLUME AND PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH THE HEAVY SNOW. AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND EVEN HANGING JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR. WILL MAINTAIN THE WIND CHILL
WARNING AS THE WIND PICK UP DURING THE DAY EVEN AS THE TEMPS CLIMB
OUT THE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... LAKE SNOW BAND WILL BE MORE INTENSE WITH A
LONGER FETCH ALONG THE FULL LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL FOCUS
ON THE CENTRAL TUG HILL WITH THE VERY GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
BE AT THE TRIPLE JUNCTION OF JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES.
THE BAND WILL WANDER ONLY SLIGHTLY...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH DURING
THE MORNING INTO SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES.
THERE IS ANOTHER MORE DIFFUSE BAND OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY WHICH
WILL PROVIDE HALF INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BUILD STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT WITH 2
TO 3 FOOT TOTAL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ERIE
COUNTY... BOUNDED BY A FOOT OR SO IN NORTHERNMOST CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND 15 TO 18 INCH
AMOUNTS INTO WESTERN WYOMING AND GENESEE COUNTIES. THE TUG HILL WILL
MAINTAIN ITS REPUTATION OF ACCUMULATING A MORE PRODIGIOUS SNOWFALL
ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 4 FEET...OR MORE...AS SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 4
INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF QUESTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BRUTALLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL TIME DEALING WITH FRIGID
TEMPERATURES...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
ONGOING WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING
MOISTURE PROFILES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. PROBABLY LOOKING
AT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES OFF LAKE
ERIE...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT HEADLINE
WORTHY STILL BELOW ZERO.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD WIND DOWN COMPLETELY THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA...WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRASTICALLY
LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS. AIR MASS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS MODIFICATION
CONTINUES WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER DURING THIS PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE CHANGE TO MILDER WEATHER WILL COME AS A RESULT OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE HIGH LATITUDES. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...PERSISTENT RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA NORTHWARDS ACROSS ALASKA TO NORTHERN SIBERIA
HAS COMBINED WITH A POLAR VORTEX OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC TO
ESTABLISH FREQUENT CROSS POLAR FLOWS. THIS PATTERN HAS FUNNELED
FRIGID AIR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHERE H925/H85 TEMPERATURES THE PAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE
DABBLED CLOSE TO HISTORICAL LOWS. WE HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO
AVOID THIS PATTERN DURING THE PAST FEW WINTERS...BUT THE CURRENT
NEUTRAL ENSO EVENT IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC LENDS SUPPORT TO THIS
KIND OF HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW.
THIS GLACIAL PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THIS WEEK
THOUGH...AS THE TENACIOUS RIDGING DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL WEAKEN AND
ALLOW THE POLAR VORTEX TO RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS NUNAVUT AND THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE FEED OF
HYPERBOREAL AIR WHILE ENCOURAGING A STRONG PACIFIC BASED CURRENT TO
FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH STRIKINGLY MILDER AIR.
RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL AMPLIFY A BIT ON FRIDAY
WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CIRCULATE MILDER
AIR NORTHWARDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 0C BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. READINGS MAY TICKLE THE 40 DEG MARK IN THE
NORMALLY WARMER GENESEE VALLEY.
A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY.
THERE IS AT LEAST A SUGGESTION BY THE ECMWF OF A WAVE ALONG THE
FRONT...AND THIS WOULD ONLY ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN. WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AND GIVEN THE WARM FLOW (H85 TEMPS AS HIGH AS
+5C) AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE LOW
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SYNOPTIC
PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST IN THE PROCESS.
FOR SUNDAY...FAIRLY STRONG RIDGING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. HIGHS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
40.
THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...BUT IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE H85-7 FLOW.
FURTHERMORE...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP A
SFC LOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD KEEP
OUR REGION WITHIN A RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW SO THAT DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN VISIT THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH LIFR AT TIMES FOR KBUF TODAY. THE LAKE SNOW
BANDS WILL IMPACT KBUF AND KART THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN EXTEND
TO KROC WITH A LESSER IMPACT. KIAG AND KJHW SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
BETTER THAN UPPER MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL VARY
LITTLE IN POSITION.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
EAST OF THE LAKES. GUSTY WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT IFR TO MVFR IN LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.
THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH IFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW LIKELY.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LAKES WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY COLD AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN ENHANCED WAVE ACTION
AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON THE LAKES.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
RETREATS INTO THE POLAR REGIONS AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN JUST TIGHT ENOUGH
TO KEEP WAVES FROM SUBSIDING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY CALM
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HYDROGRAPHS AND VISUAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ICE JAMS
FORMED DURING THE BRIEF WARM-UP LAST NIGHT ON BUFFALO...CAYUGA...
AND CAZENOVIA CREEKS IN THE BUFFALO AREA. AN ICE JAM HAS ALSO
FORMED ON THE GENESEE RIVER NEAR PORTAGEVILLE.
EVEN THOUGH ICE JAMS HAVE FORMED...TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO VERY
COLD VALUES HAVE COMPLETELY SHUT OFF RUNOFF. WITH JUST BASE FLOWS
RUNNING THROUGH THE CREEKS THE ICE JAMES WILL PROBABLY NOT PRODUCE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THEY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED NEXT
WEEKEND HOWEVER WHEN TEMPERATURES WARM AGAIN AND RUNOFF BEGINS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>006-
010>014-019>021-085.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ010>012-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ007-008.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ003-013.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ019-
020.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ030.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LOZ042>045-062>065.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
651 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO LOCALLY AFFECT SOUTHERN PARTS OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TREND
TOWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 647 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/SKY COVER AS
WELL AS DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS NEXT 3-4 HOURS. PRIMARY LAKE
ONTARIO SNOW BAND REMAINS SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY. AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO WSWLY...ANTICIPATE A SLOW NWD
MOVEMENT OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND...LIKELY REACHING OUR CWA
BETWEEN 15-18Z CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z SOLN OF THE BTV-4KM-WRF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THRU NOON TODAY (17Z)...BASED ON 20 BELOW READINGS
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...FOR LAKE EFFECT
REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTN...CONTINUES FOR SERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY THRU 12Z WED.
UNUSUALLY DEEP 500MB TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
AND ACROSS NY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 500MB HEIGHT VALUES BELOW
500DM PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CAA CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -22 TO -24C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 490DM BY MID-MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ARE RESULTING IN SOME MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS...SO TEMPERATURES WON/T RIVAL LAST WEEK/S COLD
SNAP (WHEN HIGH TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ON JANUARY 2ND AND 3RD).
DESPITE THAT...LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SFC-
750MB...WHICH IS QUITE DEEP FOR JANUARY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. LOOKING AT WSW
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES...AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
WE/LL MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS VT THIS AM. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF
N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU AROUND 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BDNRY SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH. VEERING WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFTS LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND SOUTH
OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS
INDICATE THE BAND WILL OSCILLATE BACK NWD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS RETURNING TO SRN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SRN FRANKLIN/WRN ESSEX NY
COUNTIES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. ALSO NOTING THAT 850MB FLOW IS 35 TO
40 KTS...SO BAND COULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM A SIGNIFICANT
DISTANCE...EVEN BRINGING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPSLOPE INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN
GREENS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN/EVE. MAIN IMPACT TO ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED TO SRN ST. LAWRENCE CO. SNOW COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY ROUTE 3
CORRIDOR FROM BACKUS TO CRANBERRY LAKE TO TUPPER LAKE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR WHERE ADDITION ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 4" ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15-00Z TODAY. SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 20:1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE
PERIODICALLY IMPACT SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. IT APPEARS BASED ON 4 AND
12KM BTV-WRF SOLNS THAT INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO OUR
CWA WILL LESSEN AFTER 09Z WED. THUS...THE CURRENT ENDING TIME OF
THE ADVISORY AT 12Z WED CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. ANTICIPATE SOME
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-8" BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF NY STATE HIGHWAY 3. ELSEHWERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. WSWLY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND
WITH WINDS REMAINING 10-15 MPH...NOT MUCH PROSPECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT LOCALLY 0 TO -5F ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT.
GRADIENT FLOW RELAXES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...SO WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE LESS SEVERE. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THOUGH
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS
FOR AFTN HIGHS...SO A SLIGHT MODERATION FROM EXPECTED HIGHS
TUESDAY.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE NRN ZONES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION OR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.1 IN. SATURATED LAYER IN
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS 4-7 KFT LIKELY INDICATIVE OF CLOUD COVER...SO
WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD AND GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND
LOCALLY IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE DRIES OUT THE COLUMN WITH 1000-500MB
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT
850-700MB FLOW VEERS FROM WSW TO NWLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...SO
THERE WILL BE LESS IMPACT OF MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THUS...WILL INDICATE DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
FOR THURSDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT W-NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
AND AFTN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 20S...AS GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODERATING COMMENCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST...BRINGING SW FLOW AND WAA OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S-L30S FRIDAY...WARMING
TO THE M30S-L40S ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL WARM FROM 0F TO 15F ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND M20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
HUDSONS BAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPING SWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS IN ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
AIR IS DIFFICULT TO ERODE AT THE SFC...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL HRS OF FZRA. BY THE EARLY AFTN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE BL...TRANSITIONING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NT...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW. LITTLE TO NO SN
FALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS PT AS PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY END
BEFORE COLD AIR REALLY SETTLES IN. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M30S-NEAR 40 AND MIN
TEMPS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
ANOTHER UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SW-W
WINDS PERSISTING THIS MORNING. MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY
AFFECTING KSLK/KMSS WITH SOME ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW AT KMPV
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES. AFTER DAYBREAK...STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS
PSBL. KSLK AND KMPV MOST LIKELY TO BCM MVFR/IFR LATE THIS
MRONING.
HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HRS...WINDS WIIL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS. FETCH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY SHRINK AS WINDS WEAKEN
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. DUE TO LAKE EFFECT BANDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
MOST PERSISTENT AT KSLK.
00Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY.
06Z FRIDAY ONWARD...A WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR/MVFR MIX IN
-RW/-SW SATURDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
647 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO LOCALLY AFFECT SOUTHERN PARTS OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TREND
TOWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THRU NOON TODAY (17Z)...BASED ON 20 BELOW READINGS
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...FOR LAKE EFFECT
REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTN...CONTINUES FOR SERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY THRU 12Z WED.
UNUSUALLY DEEP 500MB TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
AND ACROSS NY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 500MB HEIGHT VALUES BELOW
500DM PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CAA CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -22 TO -24C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 490DM BY MID-MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ARE RESULTING IN SOME MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS...SO TEMPERATURES WON/T RIVAL LAST WEEK/S COLD
SNAP (WHEN HIGH TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ON JANUARY 2ND AND 3RD).
DESPITE THAT...LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SFC-
750MB...WHICH IS QUITE DEEP FOR JANUARY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. LOOKING AT WSW
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES...AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
WE/LL MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS VT THIS AM. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF
N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU AROUND 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BDNRY SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH. VEERING WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFTS LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND SOUTH
OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS
INDICATE THE BAND WILL OSCILLATE BACK NWD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS RETURNING TO SRN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SRN FRANKLIN/WRN ESSEX NY
COUNTIES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. ALSO NOTING THAT 850MB FLOW IS 35 TO
40 KTS...SO BAND COULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM A SIGNIFICANT
DISTANCE...EVEN BRINGING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPSLOPE INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN
GREENS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN/EVE. MAIN IMPACT TO ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED TO SRN ST. LAWRENCE CO. SNOW COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY ROUTE 3
CORRIDOR FROM BACKUS TO CRANBERRY LAKE TO TUPPER LAKE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR WHERE ADDITION ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 4" ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15-00Z TODAY. SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 20:1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE
PERIODICALLY IMPACT SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. IT APPEARS BASED ON 4 AND
12KM BTV-WRF SOLNS THAT INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO OUR
CWA WILL LESSEN AFTER 09Z WED. THUS...THE CURRENT ENDING TIME OF
THE ADVISORY AT 12Z WED CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. ANTICIPATE SOME
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-8" BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF NY STATE HIGHWAY 3. ELSEHWERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. WSWLY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND
WITH WINDS REMAINING 10-15 MPH...NOT MUCH PROSPECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT LOCALLY 0 TO -5F ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT.
GRADIENT FLOW RELAXES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...SO WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE LESS SEVERE. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THOUGH
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS
FOR AFTN HIGHS...SO A SLIGHT MODERATION FROM EXPECTED HIGHS
TUESDAY.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE NRN ZONES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION OR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.1 IN. SATURATED LAYER IN
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS 4-7 KFT LIKELY INDICATIVE OF CLOUD COVER...SO
WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD AND GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND
LOCALLY IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE DRIES OUT THE COLUMN WITH 1000-500MB
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT
850-700MB FLOW VEERS FROM WSW TO NWLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...SO
THERE WILL BE LESS IMPACT OF MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THUS...WILL INDICATE DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
FOR THURSDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT W-NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
AND AFTN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 20S...AS GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODERATING COMMENCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST...BRINGING SW FLOW AND WAA OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S-L30S FRIDAY...WARMING
TO THE M30S-L40S ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL WARM FROM 0F TO 15F ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND M20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
HUDSONS BAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPING SWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS IN ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
AIR IS DIFFICULT TO ERODE AT THE SFC...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL HRS OF FZRA. BY THE EARLY AFTN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE BL...TRANSITIONING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NT...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW. LITTLE TO NO SN
FALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS PT AS PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY END
BEFORE COLD AIR REALLY SETTLES IN. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M30S-NEAR 40 AND MIN
TEMPS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
ANOTHER UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SW-W
WINDS PERSISTING THIS MORNING. MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING...MAINLY
AFFECTING KSLK/KMSS WITH SOME ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC SNOW AT KMPV
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES. AFTER DAYBREAK...STRONG
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS
PSBL. KSLK AND KMPV MOST LIKELY TO BCM MVFR/IFR LATE THIS
MRONING.
HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HRS...WINDS WIIL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15-25KTS. FETCH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY SHRINK AS WINDS WEAKEN
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. DUE TO LAKE EFFECT BANDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
MOST PERSISTENT AT KSLK.
00Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY.
06Z FRIDAY ONWARD...A WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR/MVFR MIX IN
-RW/-SW SATURDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
348 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SOME HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO ARE EXPECTED TO LOCALLY AFFECT SOUTHERN PARTS OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TREND
TOWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES STARTING THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...ONLY CHANGE TO ONGOING HEADLINES WAS TO
EXTEND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THRU NOON TODAY (17Z)...BASED ON 20 BELOW READINGS
LASTING A COUPLE HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...FOR LAKE EFFECT
REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD THIS AFTN...CONTINUES FOR SERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY THRU 12Z WED.
UNUSUALLY DEEP 500MB TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO
AND ACROSS NY EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 500MB HEIGHT VALUES BELOW
500DM PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS VCNTY OF LAKE ONTARIO. STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CAA CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -22 TO -24C AND 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 490DM BY MID-MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ARE RESULTING IN SOME MODERATION
OF THE AIR MASS...SO TEMPERATURES WON/T RIVAL LAST WEEK/S COLD
SNAP (WHEN HIGH TEMPS WERE BELOW ZERO ON JANUARY 2ND AND 3RD).
DESPITE THAT...LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC FROM THE SFC-
750MB...WHICH IS QUITE DEEP FOR JANUARY. STEEP LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH A STRONG WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE EAST
OF HUDSON BAY WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING ALL AREAS THRU THE DAYLIGHT HRS TODAY. LOOKING AT WSW
SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES...AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT
WE/LL MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WIND
CHILLS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 BELOW ACROSS VT THIS AM. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF
N-CENTRAL AND NERN VT. GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE OF
MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION...IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU AROUND 09Z WITH SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ANY ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BDNRY SHOULD BE UNDER
AN INCH. VEERING WINDS BRIEFLY SHIFTS LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BAND SOUTH
OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE BTV 4KM AND 12KM WRF MODELS
INDICATE THE BAND WILL OSCILLATE BACK NWD WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS RETURNING TO SRN ST. LAWRENCE INTO SRN FRANKLIN/WRN ESSEX NY
COUNTIES BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. ALSO NOTING THAT 850MB FLOW IS 35 TO
40 KTS...SO BAND COULD EXTEND DOWNSTREAM A SIGNIFICANT
DISTANCE...EVEN BRINGING SOME OCCASIONAL FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPSLOPE INTO THE CENTRAL/NRN
GREENS FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN/EVE. MAIN IMPACT TO ROAD
CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED TO SRN ST. LAWRENCE CO. SNOW COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY ROUTE 3
CORRIDOR FROM BACKUS TO CRANBERRY LAKE TO TUPPER LAKE. WILL
MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS SERN ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY FOR WHERE ADDITION ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 4" ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 15-00Z TODAY. SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND 20:1.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE
PERIODICALLY IMPACT SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY INTO THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. IT APPEARS BASED ON 4 AND
12KM BTV-WRF SOLNS THAT INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS INTO OUR
CWA WILL LESSEN AFTER 09Z WED. THUS...THE CURRENT ENDING TIME OF
THE ADVISORY AT 12Z WED CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. ANTICIPATE SOME
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-8" BY THE TIME THE EVENT ENDS...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF NY STATE HIGHWAY 3. ELSEHWERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING COVERAGE OF ANY FLURRY ACTIVITY. WSWLY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...AND
WITH WINDS REMAINING 10-15 MPH...NOT MUCH PROSPECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT LOCALLY 0 TO -5F ACROSS N-CENTRAL AND NERN
VT AND WITHIN THE ADIRONDACK REGION BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FT.
GRADIENT FLOW RELAXES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY...SO WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE LESS SEVERE. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FOR SRN ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...THOUGH
INTENSITY SHOULD BE LESS. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
STAYED NEAR MOS CONSENSUS ON TEMPS...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER TEENS
FOR AFTN HIGHS...SO A SLIGHT MODERATION FROM EXPECTED HIGHS
TUESDAY.
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM INDICATE THAT A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRAZE THE NRN ZONES. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION OR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.1 IN. SATURATED LAYER IN
NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS 4-7 KFT LIKELY INDICATIVE OF CLOUD COVER...SO
WILL INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD AND GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AND
LOCALLY IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE DRIES OUT THE COLUMN WITH 1000-500MB
RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT
850-700MB FLOW VEERS FROM WSW TO NWLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...SO
THERE WILL BE LESS IMPACT OF MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THUS...WILL INDICATE DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
FOR THURSDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT W-NW DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS
AND AFTN HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 20S...AS GRADUAL AIR
MASS MODERATING COMMENCES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EST TUESDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE SRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST...BRINGING SW FLOW AND WAA OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M20S-L30S FRIDAY...WARMING
TO THE M30S-L40S ON SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL WARM FROM 0F TO 15F ON
THURSDAY NIGHT TO THE UPPER TEENS AND M20S FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASING THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LVL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR
HUDSONS BAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPING SWD THRU THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS IN ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE COLD
AIR IS DIFFICULT TO ERODE AT THE SFC...RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL HRS OF FZRA. BY THE EARLY AFTN...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM AIR
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE BL...TRANSITIONING ALL PRECIP TO RAIN.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NT...PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN...TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW. LITTLE TO NO SN
FALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS PT AS PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY END
BEFORE COLD AIR REALLY SETTLES IN. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL RESIDE
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE M30S-NEAR 40 AND MIN
TEMPS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.
ANOTHER UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING KSLK/KMSS WITH SOME ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC SNOW AT KMPV AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THESE SITES.
SLIGHT TROUGHING AT 700MB WILL DISRUPT SW FLOW...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT BAND
SOUTHWARD FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. TIMING OF PROGRESSION OF
THIS TROUGH HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY...EXPECT FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN TO
MORE SW ORIENTATION BTWN 08Z AND 10Z...RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TO KSLK...PSBLY KMSS AS WELL.
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY...FLOW AT 850MB INCREASES...PSBLY ALLOWING
FOR SOME FLURRIES/-SHSN IN THE CPV WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AT KSLK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. KMPV WILL SEE A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING. THIS INCREASE IN
FLOW WILL BE REFLECTED AT THE SFC WITH WINDS INCREASING AT
15-25KTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30KTS PSBL.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. DUE TO LAKE EFFECT BANDS...SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE
MOST PERSISTENT AT KSLK.
00Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY.
06Z FRIDAY ONWARD...A WARM FRONT MOVING NEWD WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH VFR/MVFR MIX IN
-RW/-SW SATURDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ026-027-
029>031-034-087.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
206 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION BY THURSDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1145 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LWR TEMPS SOME MORE AS HORNELL NY IS NOW DOWN TO
-2F AS OF 04Z. HV OPTED TO COMBINE CURRENT FCST TEMPS WITH LATEST
RAP AS RAP IS DROPPING THEM OFF CLOSER TO REALITY. THUS THINK THAT
OVRNGT MINS, ON AVERAGE, WL BE ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES CLDR THAN FCST.
IN ADDITION, HV ADJUSTED POPS ACRS NRN ONEIDA CNTY TO RMV POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP INTO NRN ONEIDA CNTY
AFT 07Z AS UL WV PASSES.
1005 PM UPDATE...
WITHIN THE PAST TWO HOURS...A NICE SQUALL DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER THAT LED TO A PERIOD OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AREA AND POINTS EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY...STILL READILY APPARENT ON RADAR...IS RAPIDLY MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS ATTM. LOCAL SCANNER BROADCASTS
INDICATE NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE BINGHAMTON AREA AS ROADS
QUICKLY ICED UP...AND REPORTS OF ALMOST 3" HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS BROOME COUNTY.
SO WITH THIS NEARLY GONE...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVER THE PAST FEW
HRS...SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS CARRIED THE BAND FURTHER AND FURTHER
NORTH AS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF MAIN MID-LEVEL
VORTEX DESCENDS UPON THE REGION. THAT SAID...MODELS STILL INDICATE
BAND WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT SOUTH AFTER 6Z AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
WAVE PASSES. AS THIS OCCURS...WE STILL EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL KEEP
CURRENT LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY IN PLACE. QUICK LOOK AT KBUF RADAR
SHOWS DEVELOPING STREAMERS SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY WHICH WITH TIME
WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE ONTARIO BAND. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE EXPECT A RESURGENCE/STRENGTHENING OF THE BAND AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MODELS
INDICATE LOW /MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS NEXT UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH SHOULD CARRY HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH ONCE AGAIN.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY IS WINDS AS ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RECENT OBS HAVE INDICATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 KTS IN SOME PLACES...WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS (HORNELL CURRENTLY REPORTING 0 DEGREES/WHILE PENN YAN
CURRENTLY SITTING AT 4). QUICK LOOK AT MSAS PRESSURE RISE IMAGES
SHOWS MAX PRESSURE RISE COUPLET EXITING OFF THE EAST THIS
HR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS WILL APPARENT WELL WEST IN A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
650 PM UPDATE... VERY INTERESTING WX OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE NY THIS HR...WITH MAIN ATTENTION FOCUSED ON FALLING TEMPS
BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AND ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING OUT WEST THIS HR WITH SINGLE DIGITS NOW
BEING REPORTED AS CLOSE AS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (0 DEGREES
CURRENTLY AT OLEAN...WHILE WELLSVILLE IS DOWN TO ONLY 3 DEGREES
THIS HR). UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS ONLY THE START AS TEMPS ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO THIS
EVENING AS ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED
WITH STEADY WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL CREATE VERY
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...HENCE THE ONGOING WIND CHILL WARNING WHICH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA.
NOW TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE BAND OVER
THE BUFFALO METRO THIS EVENING WITH THE BUFFALO AIRPORT NOW
REPORTING VSBYS DOWN TO 1/16TH OF A MILE. TAKE THESE SNOWFALL
RATES AND COMBINE THEM WITH STRONG WINDS...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS HR. MEANWHILE CLOSER
TO OUR NECK OF THE WORDS...DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY STILL SEEN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY STILL DISPLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE ONEIDA COUNTY LINE. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN THIS
EVENING ON WHETHER MAIN BAND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ONEIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BAND WILL
TEMPORARILY SHIFT SOUTH FOR A FEW HRS ON THE BACKSIDE OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THAT
SAID HOWEVER...HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN NORTH
AND THUS FEEL CURRENT LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AT 4 PM...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
SECONDARY TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
WITH TRUE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW DUE TO CAA ALONE AND NO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. A WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE UNTIL THIS SECONDARY TROF
DROPS THROUGH. LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING TUE THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FOR THIS REASON
ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADV. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER.
LOOKING AT THE WIND DIRECTION IN THE LOWER PART OF THE UNSTABLE
LAYER WOULD KEEP THE BAND NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY BUT THE TOP PART
OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW IMPLY A NRN ONEIDA COUNTY
BAND. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, MAYBE A
BROAD BUT LESS INTENSE LAKE BAND WILL DEVELOP.
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS T85 RANGE FROM -23/-26C.
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREME WIND CHILLS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD H5 TROF REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY DROPPING INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE AREA ZERO WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE TEENS.
BY THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY ALONG WITH SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. ACTIVE BUT WARMER PATTERN.
BOTH EURO AND GFS BRING US RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. UPPED
POPS TO LIKELY. AFTER THAT A BRIEF RIDGE WITH LITTLE PRECIP. FOR
THE NEXT SYSTEM MODELS DIFFER BY 12 HOURS ON ANOTHER PERIOD OF
RAIN. GFS SUN NGT AND EURO MONDAY. WENT WITH THE EURO AND NO
PRECIP SUN NGT AND CHC POPS MON. MAYBE A COOL DOWN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW THAT MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
230 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFF TO SEA AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. APPEARS TO
BE ANOTHER WET FORECAST AND KEPT CHANCES FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEAST THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASES AND THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND SO RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE TYPE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE TIMING
THIS LOW SO KEPT POPS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
WITH A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL STAY WEST AND
NORTH OF REGION FOR THE MOST PART. AT RME BAND HAS DROPPED DOWN
EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH BY 12Z. AT BGM WITH
THE OPENNESS ON TOP OF A HILL BLOWING SNOW COULD REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO MVFR AND MAYBE IFR BRIEFLY.
THE MAIN STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STG W WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT ALL SITES INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHSN/FLRYS
FOR THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS...WITH VFR AT KAVP.
THU...VFR.
THU NGT THROUGH FRI NGT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT
SNOW...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
SAT...MVFR IN RAIN.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1149 PM EST MON JAN 6 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION BY THURSDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1145 PM UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LWR TEMPS SOME MORE AS HORNELL NY IS NOW DOWN TO
-2F AS OF 04Z. HV OPTED TO COMBINE CURRENT FCST TEMPS WITH LATEST
RAP AS RAP IS DROPPING THEM OFF CLOSER TO REALITY. THUS THINK THAT
OVRNGT MINS, ON AVERAGE, WL BE ABOUT 1-3 DEGREES CLDR THAN FCST.
IN ADDITION, HV ADJUSTED POPS ACRS NRN ONEIDA CNTY TO RMV POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP INTO NRN ONEIDA CNTY
AFT 07Z AS UL WV PASSES.
1005 PM UPDATE...
WITHIN THE PAST TWO HOURS...A NICE SQUALL DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER THAT LED TO A PERIOD OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AREA AND POINTS EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY...STILL READILY APPARENT ON RADAR...IS RAPIDLY MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN CATSKILLS ATTM. LOCAL SCANNER BROADCASTS
INDICATE NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS WITHIN THE BINGHAMTON AREA AS ROADS
QUICKLY ICED UP...AND REPORTS OF ALMOST 3" HAVE BEEN RECEIVED
ACROSS BROOME COUNTY.
SO WITH THIS NEARLY GONE...ATTENTION SHIFTS BACK TO ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVER THE PAST FEW
HRS...SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS CARRIED THE BAND FURTHER AND FURTHER
NORTH AS CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF MAIN MID-LEVEL
VORTEX DESCENDS UPON THE REGION. THAT SAID...MODELS STILL INDICATE
BAND WILL TEMPORARILY SHIFT SOUTH AFTER 6Z AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
WAVE PASSES. AS THIS OCCURS...WE STILL EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOWS
TO MOVE BACK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND WILL KEEP
CURRENT LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY IN PLACE. QUICK LOOK AT KBUF RADAR
SHOWS DEVELOPING STREAMERS SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY WHICH WITH TIME
WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE CURRENT LAKE ONTARIO BAND. AS THIS
OCCURS...WE EXPECT A RESURGENCE/STRENGTHENING OF THE BAND AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MODELS
INDICATE LOW /MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK AS NEXT UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH SHOULD CARRY HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH ONCE AGAIN.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY IS WINDS AS ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RECENT OBS HAVE INDICATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 KTS IN SOME PLACES...WITH TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS (HORNELL CURRENTLY REPORTING 0 DEGREES/WHILE PENN YAN
CURRENTLY SITTING AT 4). QUICK LOOK AT MSAS PRESSURE RISE IMAGES
SHOWS MAX PRESSURE RISE COUPLET EXITING OFF THE EAST THIS
HR...HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS WILL APPARENT WELL WEST IN A FAIRLY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONTINUED STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
650 PM UPDATE... VERY INTERESTING WX OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE NY THIS HR...WITH MAIN ATTENTION FOCUSED ON FALLING TEMPS
BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH
THE AREA AND ONGOING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
TEMPS RAPIDLY FALLING OUT WEST THIS HR WITH SINGLE DIGITS NOW
BEING REPORTED AS CLOSE AS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (0 DEGREES
CURRENTLY AT OLEAN...WHILE WELLSVILLE IS DOWN TO ONLY 3 DEGREES
THIS HR). UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS ONLY THE START AS TEMPS ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO THIS
EVENING AS ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS COMBINED
WITH STEADY WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL CREATE VERY
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS...HENCE THE ONGOING WIND CHILL WARNING WHICH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES WITHIN THE CWA.
NOW TO THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...VERY IMPRESSIVE LAKE BAND OVER
THE BUFFALO METRO THIS EVENING WITH THE BUFFALO AIRPORT NOW
REPORTING VSBYS DOWN TO 1/16TH OF A MILE. TAKE THESE SNOWFALL
RATES AND COMBINE THEM WITH STRONG WINDS...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
ARE OCCURRING UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS HR. MEANWHILE CLOSER
TO OUR NECK OF THE WORDS...DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY STILL SEEN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY STILL DISPLACED WELL
NORTH OF THE ONEIDA COUNTY LINE. BIG QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN THIS
EVENING ON WHETHER MAIN BAND WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ONEIDA LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BAND WILL
TEMPORARILY SHIFT SOUTH FOR A FEW HRS ON THE BACKSIDE OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH NOW APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THAT
SAID HOWEVER...HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN NORTH
AND THUS FEEL CURRENT LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AT 4 PM...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA RANGED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A
SECONDARY TROF WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING
WITH TRUE ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW DUE TO CAA ALONE AND NO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. A WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF NRN
ONEIDA COUNTY AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE UNTIL THIS SECONDARY TROF
DROPS THROUGH. LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH MID MORNING TUE THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FOR THIS REASON
ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADV. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER.
LOOKING AT THE WIND DIRECTION IN THE LOWER PART OF THE UNSTABLE
LAYER WOULD KEEP THE BAND NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY BUT THE TOP PART
OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOWS WESTERLY FLOW IMPLY A NRN ONEIDA COUNTY
BAND. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT, MAYBE A
BROAD BUT LESS INTENSE LAKE BAND WILL DEVELOP.
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. MAX TEMPS ON
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS T85 RANGE FROM -23/-26C.
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP EXTREME WIND CHILLS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD H5 TROF REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, OCCASIONALLY DROPPING INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TUE NIGHT WILL BE AREA ZERO WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE TEENS.
BY THURSDAY, SFC HIGH PRES IN THE VCNTY ALONG WITH SOME AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFF TO SEA AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE REGION. APPEARS TO
BE ANOTHER WET FORECAST AND KEPT CHANCES FOR EITHER RAIN OR SNOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHEAST THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP INCREASES AND THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND SO RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE TYPE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MODELS HAVE DISCREPANCIES ON THE TIMING
THIS LOW SO KEPT POPS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
620 PM MON UPDATE... THIS TAF PD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDS...AS FOR
THE MOST PART...SIG LES BANDS OFF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONT STAY
WELL REMOVED FROM OUR TERMINAL SITES.
IT`S PSBL THAT THE LK ONT BAND COULD VERY BRIEFLY DROP SWD AFTER
06Z...AND APPROACH KRME. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...IFR CONDS WOULD
PROBABLY OCCUR. FOR NOW...WE`VE INTRODUCED THIS PSBLTY FOR JUST A
FEW HRS...PRIOR TO 12Z TUE. WE ALSO COULD WELL SEE TRANSITORY
-SHSN/FLRYS ACRS CNY JUST ABT ANYTIME THIS PD...EACH ONE PERHAPS
BRINGING BRIEF RESTRICTIVE CONDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR
BREVITY...AND ALSO LACK OF PREFERENCE FOR ANY ONE SPECIFIC TIME
FRAME...WE`VE ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS FOR SUCH ATTM.
THE MAIN STORY SHOULD BE THE STG WRLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-35
KT INDICATED AREA-WIDE.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THROUGH WED...OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL IN SHSN/FLRYS FOR THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS...WITH MOSTLY VFR AT KAVP.
THU THROUGH SAT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW...OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
631 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOMALOUSLY COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST DAY OF 2014...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH NOON TODAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS ALREADY BEEN MET (WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 0 TO -10F AS OF 07Z) IN MOST AREAS WEST OF HWY
1...WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN /I-95 CORRIDOR/ EXPECTED TO
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNRISE.
TODAY/TONIGHT: THE POLAR VORTEX (A COLD/EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW)
CENTERED IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT (TO A MORE
TYPICAL LOCATION NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND)...RESULTING IN SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE /HEIGHT RISES ALOFT/ ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...
REINFORCING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION AND PROLONGING
THE ADVECTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD (`TO BUILD A FIRE`) ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 925-900 MB (2500-3500 FT AGL)...AND
THE DRY ADIABATIC METHOD WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS /NEAR 20F/ IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 20S
ELSEWHERE (WARMEST SOUTH/SE). THOUGH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO MODIFY TONIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS WED MORNING.
INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT BY VIRTUE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOC/W SUCH A COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (-12 TO -15C AT 900 MB)...
THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR VERY SHALLOW CU/TCU TO DEVELOP GIVEN SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS (PER 00Z GSO RAOB) AND THAT IT IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT FOR
ANY UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
THIS TYPE OF REGIME. GIVEN THAT TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
WILL FALL WITHIN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE (I.E. -12 TO -15C)...IF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT IT WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE FOR
SHALLOW CU/TCU TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WED MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY...EXPECT CONTINUED
COLD/CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S (NORTH) TO LOWER
40S (SOUTH). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 221 AM TUESDAY...
EVEN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS PULLING OUT
RAPIDLY TO THE NE AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT... THE LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S EXPECTED WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS.
MODERATION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT EXTENDING INTO
NC/SC FROM THE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD... WAA WILL COMMENCE
ALOFT AND THIS WILL OVERRUN THE COLD STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. P-TYPE WITH WARMING ALOFT WOULD BE
LIQUID... BUT CONCERNS REMAIN WITH THE VERY COLD DRY SURFACE LAYER
OF SOME LIGHT GLAZE OR ICING IN THE PIEDMONT (ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRIAD REGION) LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (SIMILAR TO THE EVENT LAST
SUNDAY). THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THAT IF ENOUGH LIGHT RAIN FALLS... TEMPS
WOULD COOL RAPIDLY TO NEAR 30 IN THE TRIAD. CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB
FORECASTS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL... WITH LESSER CHANCES OF ANY
ICING AT RDU... TO NIL IN THE FAY/GSB/RWI AREAS OF THE WARMER
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. CURRENT POP IS 50 OR LESS... OR LESS
THAN LIKELY... WITH QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT MATERIALIZES.
FOR NOW... WE WILL ADD MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN EARLY (IN THE TRIAD ZONES ONLY)... WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOWS 30-38 NW TO SE. IN ADDITION... MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES PRECEDING THIS POTENTIAL LIGHT
QPF EVENT THE DAY BEFORE (THURSDAY) WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AS
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY INCREASES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
LINGERING ANOMALOUSLY SURFACE LAYER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING A TOP THE
LAYER. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT GLAZING EARLY FRIDAY IN THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS WARMING ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN... EVEN IN THE
DAMMING REGION... EVEN IF THE WARMING IS SUBTLE AT THE SURFACE. THE
HYBRID CAD SHOULD LOCK IN OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND DEPENDING
ON THE QPF AND LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE... TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
AT WINSTON AND GREENSBORO. TO THE SE... A WARMER... WETTER AIR MASS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OCEAN. THIS WILL SET UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FRIDAY WITH THE NW EXPERIENCING 40... AND THE SE
POTENTIALLY WARMING TO NEAR 60. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IF FOR THE HYBRID CAD TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK... AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH INTO VA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MANY AREAS IN THE EAST TO REACH INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
CONFINED TO THE NW PIEDMONT. SKIES MAY REMAIN CLOUDY IN THE NW...
BUT BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST OF A WET SUBTROPICAL LOW LIKELY BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES.
THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WAVE
TRAIN OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS AND THE POTENTIAL BRIEF CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS... ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS GUARANTEES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME
50S... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT SOME 50S NW. UNTIL THE MODELS
RESOLVE THE SYSTEM ISSUES... WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 7-12 KT WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 20 KT THIS MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY AND
DECREASING TO 5-8 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
WEAKENS...THEN CALM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRI-SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 7TH...
RDU 15 1988
GSO 14 1988
FAY 13 1959
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 7TH...
RDU 21 1988
GSO 21 1988
FAY 31 1988
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH...
RDU 7 1970
GSO 6 1970
FAY 14 1970
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF
FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...STRONG CAA CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING AS
ARCTIC AIR MASS SPILLING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO E NC.
CURRENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND TO LOW/MID COAST. BNDRY
LAYER REMAINS MIXED AND NW WINDS CONTINUE AOA 10 KT OCNL GUSTING
TO 20 KT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO LOW TEENS COAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
TUMBLE INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS BY DAYBREAK WHEN WE EXPECT THE LOWEST
WIND CHILLS TO OCCUR...GENERALLY 0 TO 5 BELOW. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH RISING VALUES ABOVE CRITERIA BY
MID MORNING. RECORD BREAKING COLD MINS THIS MORNING AND RECORD
LOW MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY BE ATTAINED AS
THICKNESS VALS AT 18Z ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 1240-1245 M
RANGE...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN FA. GEFS MEAN 850MB TEMPS AND
M-CLIMATE ANOMOLIES INDICATE THESE TEMPS OCCURRING JUST OUTSIDE
THE 30 YEAR CFSR PERIOD...ANOTHER INDICATOR OR RECORD BREAKING
POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE EAST AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES ALONG WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS...EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RECORDS SHOULD BE ATTAINED FOR AREAS
ONCE AGAIN AS MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE COAST DROP WELL INTO THE
TEENS. WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR AS CALM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM UPPER
TROUGHING TO RIDGING WITH A COLD REGIME EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING
TO ONE FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE AND RETREAT
TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHS WILL RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF OF THE COAST THURSDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE PRODUCING AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE WEAK LIFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS BUT THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH REGARDS TO THE QPF FORECAST. THINK REGION WITH BEST
THREAT FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN
TO THE CRYSTAL COAST WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP (20%) WILL BE
CARRIED. THE EASTERLY (MARITIME FLOW) WILL BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED
WITH LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS LEADING TO A BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
FACTOR IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH EXPECTED
SATURDAY TO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND POSSIBLY A FEW 70S
DEPENDING ON HOW THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CARRYING LOW CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN BECOMES BETTER
DEFINED WITH SATURDAY LOOKING TO BE WETTEST DAY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM TUE...VFR SKC THROUGH THE TAF PD. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL RELAX THROUGH THE DAY AS GRADIENT DECREASES. CALM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY EXPECTING INCREASING
CLOUDS THU AHEAD OF A WEAK COASTAL TROF AND SHOULD SEE A SOME
SHOWERS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING THU NIGHT AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS LEADS TO AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW WNW WINDS AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KT...MOST NOTEABLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS RUNNING 5 TO
9 FEET WITH HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HAVE CUT BACK
ENDING TIME OF GALES TO 12Z...AS MODELLED SOUNDINGS OVER THE
WATERS AND HRRR BOTH INDICATING A RELAXING GRADIENT BY THEN. GALES
WILL HAVE TO BE REPLACED BY SCA BY THEN. SHOULD SEE A RAPID DEC IN
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES APPROACHES AND GRADIENT
RELAXES. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET BY EARLY THIS EVENING
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF WW4 AND LOCAL NWPS FOR SEAS FCST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEDNESDAY DIMINISHING FROM 15 KT EARLY TO LESS THAN 10 KT. AS A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THURSDAY WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY WHILE INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 KT. WAVE WATCH IS BUILDING SEAS TO 6+ FT SATURDAY SO MARINERS
SHOULD PLAN FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES IN THE MARINE GUIDANCE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR JANUARY 7TH:
NEW BERN 23 2010
CAPE HATTERAS 27 1984
WILLIAMSTON 18 1995
KINSTON 15 1969
GREENVILLE 10 1924
BAYBORO 20 1988
MOREHEAD CITY 23 2010
OCRACOKE 28 1999
MANTEO 23 1988
WASHINGTON 25 2010
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR JANUARY 7TH:
NEW BERN 34 1988
CAPE HATTERAS 38 1973
WILLIAMSTON 29 1988
KINSTON 26 1942
GREENVILLE 27 1924
BAYBORO 30 1988
MOREHEAD CITY 33 1988
OCRACOKE 40 2010
MANTEO 33 1988
WASHINGTON 43 2010
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR JANUARY 8TH:
NEW BERN 18 1970
CAPE HATTERAS 20 1970
WILLIAMSTON 16 1970
KINSTON 16 1968
GREENVILLE 13 1986
BAYBORO 19 1986
MOREHEAD CITY 16 1968
OCRACOKE 23 1968
MANTEO 20 1986
WASHINGTON 21 1903
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-
152-154-156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/TL
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOMALOUSLY COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST DAY OF 2014...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH NOON TODAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS ALREADY BEEN MET (WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 0 TO -10F AS OF 07Z) IN MOST AREAS WEST OF HWY
1...WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN /I-95 CORRIDOR/ EXPECTED TO
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNRISE.
TODAY/TONIGHT: THE POLAR VORTEX (A COLD/EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW)
CENTERED IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT (TO A MORE
TYPICAL LOCATION NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND)...RESULTING IN SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE /HEIGHT RISES ALOFT/ ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...
REINFORCING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION AND PROLONGING
THE ADVECTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD (`TO BUILD A FIRE`) ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 925-900 MB (2500-3500 FT AGL)...AND
THE DRY ADIABATIC METHOD WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS /NEAR 20F/ IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 20S
ELSEWHERE (WARMEST SOUTH/SE). THOUGH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO MODIFY TONIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS WED MORNING.
INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT BY VIRTUE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOC/W SUCH A COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (-12 TO -15C AT 900 MB)...
THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR VERY SHALLOW CU/TCU TO DEVELOP GIVEN SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS (PER 00Z GSO RAOB) AND THAT IT IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT FOR
ANY UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
THIS TYPE OF REGIME. GIVEN THAT TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
WILL FALL WITHIN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE (I.E. -12 TO -15C)...IF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT IT WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE FOR
SHALLOW CU/TCU TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WED MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY...EXPECT CONTINUED
COLD/CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S (NORTH) TO LOWER
40S (SOUTH). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 221 AM TUESDAY...
EVEN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS PULLING OUT
RAPIDLY TO THE NE AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT... THE LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S EXPECTED WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS.
MODERATION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT EXTENDING INTO
NC/SC FROM THE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD... WAA WILL COMMENCE
ALOFT AND THIS WILL OVERRUN THE COLD STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. P-TYPE WITH WARMING ALOFT WOULD BE
LIQUID... BUT CONCERNS REMAIN WITH THE VERY COLD DRY SURFACE LAYER
OF SOME LIGHT GLAZE OR ICING IN THE PIEDMONT (ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRIAD REGION) LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (SIMILAR TO THE EVENT LAST
SUNDAY). THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THAT IF ENOUGH LIGHT RAIN FALLS... TEMPS
WOULD COOL RAPIDLY TO NEAR 30 IN THE TRIAD. CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB
FORECASTS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL... WITH LESSER CHANCES OF ANY
ICING AT RDU... TO NIL IN THE FAY/GSB/RWI AREAS OF THE WARMER
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. CURRENT POP IS 50 OR LESS... OR LESS
THAN LIKELY... WITH QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT MATERIALIZES.
FOR NOW... WE WILL ADD MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN EARLY (IN THE TRIAD ZONES ONLY)... WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOWS 30-38 NW TO SE. IN ADDITION... MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES PRECEDING THIS POTENTIAL LIGHT
QPF EVENT THE DAY BEFORE (THURSDAY) WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AS
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY INCREASES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
LINGERING ANOMALOUSLY SURFACE LAYER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING A TOP THE
LAYER. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT GLAZING EARLY FRIDAY IN THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD BE VERY
SHORT LIVED AS WARMING ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN... EVEN IN THE
DAMMING REGION... EVEN IF THE WARMING IS SUBTLE AT THE SURFACE. THE
HYBRID CAD SHOULD LOCK IN OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND DEPENDING
ON THE QPF AND LIGHT RAIN COVERAGE... TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40
AT WINSTON AND GREENSBORO. TO THE SE... A WARMER... WETTER AIR MASS
WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE OCEAN. THIS WILL SET UP A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FRIDAY WITH THE NW EXPERIENCING 40... AND THE SE
POTENTIALLY WARMING TO NEAR 60. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN... DRIZZLE AND
FOG SHOULD LINGER MUCH OF THE DAY OVER THE PIEDMONT.
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IF FOR THE HYBRID CAD TO EVENTUALLY
BREAK... AS A WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH INTO VA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MANY AREAS IN THE EAST TO REACH INTO THE 60S WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
CONFINED TO THE NW PIEDMONT. SKIES MAY REMAIN CLOUDY IN THE NW...
BUT BECOME PARTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST OF A WET SUBTROPICAL LOW LIKELY BRINGING BACK RAIN CHANCES.
THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE WAVE
TRAIN OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS AND THE POTENTIAL BRIEF CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN STATES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. REGARDLESS... ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS GUARANTEES WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME
50S... WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXCEPT SOME 50S NW. UNTIL THE MODELS
RESOLVE THE SYSTEM ISSUES... WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE OF RAIN IN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY AND
DECREASING TO 5-10 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRI-SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 7TH...
RDU 15 1988
GSO 14 1988
FAY 13 1959
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 7TH...
RDU 21 1988
GSO 21 1988
FAY 31 1988
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH...
RDU 7 1970
GSO 6 1970
FAY 14 1970
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
243 AM EST TUE JAN 7 2014
.SYNOPSIS...ANOMALOUSLY COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM TUESDAY...
...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST DAY OF 2014...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC
THROUGH NOON TODAY. ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS ALREADY BEEN MET (WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 0 TO -10F AS OF 07Z) IN MOST AREAS WEST OF HWY
1...WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN /I-95 CORRIDOR/ EXPECTED TO
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SUNRISE.
TODAY/TONIGHT: THE POLAR VORTEX (A COLD/EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW)
CENTERED IN VICINITY OF JAMES BAY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT (TO A MORE
TYPICAL LOCATION NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND)...RESULTING IN SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE /HEIGHT RISES ALOFT/ ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...
REINFORCING SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE REGION AND PROLONGING
THE ADVECTION OF AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD (`TO BUILD A FIRE`) ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO CENTRAL NC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING UP TO 925-900 MB (2500-3500 FT AGL)...AND
THE DRY ADIABATIC METHOD WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS /NEAR 20F/ IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT TO THE LOWER/MID 20S
ELSEWHERE (WARMEST SOUTH/SE). THOUGH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO MODIFY TONIGHT...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS WED MORNING.
INTERESTINGLY...THE LATEST RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR
VERY SHALLOW INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS/SE COASTAL PLAIN AND
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT BY VIRTUE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
ASSOC/W SUCH A COLD LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS (-12 TO -15C AT 900 MB)...
THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE THAT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR VERY SHALLOW CU/TCU TO DEVELOP GIVEN SUCH A DRY
AIRMASS (PER 00Z GSO RAOB) AND THAT IT IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT FOR
ANY UPSTREAM MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
THIS TYPE OF REGIME. GIVEN THAT TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
WILL FALL WITHIN THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE (I.E. -12 TO -15C)...IF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT IT WOULD AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE FOR
SHALLOW CU/TCU TO DEVELOP AND PERHAPS PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES. WITH
THE ABOVE IN MIND...FEEL THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO IS TOO
UNLIKELY TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME AND WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WED MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WED NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY...EXPECT CONTINUED
COLD/CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S (NORTH) TO LOWER
40S (SOUTH). -VINCENT
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 221 AM TUESDAY...
EVEN WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS PULLING OUT
RAPIDLY TO THE NE AND RAPIDLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT... THE LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION SHOULD BRING ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S EXPECTED WITH SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
SPOTS.
MODERATION WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER NEW ENGLAND BUT EXTENDING INTO
NC/SC FROM THE NORTH BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD... WAA WILL COMMENCE
ALOFT AND THIS WILL OVERRUN THE COLD STABLE NEAR SURFACE LAYER BY
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY...
MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT. P-TYPE WITH WARMING ALOFT WOULD BE
LIQUID... BUT CONCERNS REMAIN WITH THE VERY COLD DRY SURFACE LAYER
OF SOME LIGHT GLAZE OR ICING IN THE PIEDMONT (ESPECIALLY IN THE
TRIAD REGION) LATE THURSDAY NIGHT (SIMILAR TO THE EVENT LAST
SUNDAY). THERE APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THAT IF ENOUGH LIGHT RAIN FALLS... TEMPS
WOULD COOL RAPIDLY TO NEAR 30 IN THE TRIAD. CURRENT SURFACE WET BULB
FORECASTS INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL... WITH LESSER CHANCES OF ANY
ICING AT RDU... TO NIL IN THE FAY/GSB/RWI AREAS OF THE WARMER
SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. CURRENT POP IS 50 OR LESS... OR LESS
THAN LIKELY... WITH QPF OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS IF IT MATERIALIZES.
FOR NOW... WE WILL ADD MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN EARLY (IN THE TRIAD ZONES ONLY)... WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN ELSEWHERE. LOWS 30-38 NW TO SE. IN ADDITION... MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES PRECEDING THIS POTENTIAL LIGHT
QPF EVENT THE DAY BEFORE (THURSDAY) WILL WARM INTO THE 40S AS
CLOUDINESS GRADUALLY INCREASES ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL
UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
LINGERING ANOMALOUSLY SURFACE LAYER WITH CLOUDS INCREASING A TOP THE
LAYER. HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S
FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...
FRIDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HYBRID CAD WEDGE LOCKED IN
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND A WARMER...WETTER AIRMASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL SET UP A LARGE MAX TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ON
FRIDAY WITH THE NW EXPERIENCING MID 40S TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING PRESENTED BY THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT MID 30S TO MID 40S.
SATURDAY MORNING THE WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...PRESSURED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...DESPITE THE
OVERCAST SKIES. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE VERY GOOD ALONG THE FRONT
AND BOTH MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OUTDOOR PLANS MAY
BE HINDERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT ANY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT
LIVED AS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE OVER AND AN INVERTED TROUGH KEEPS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LEAST
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND FOR THE DAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FROM NW TO SE AND FAIRLY
DRY ALTHOUGH OVERCAST. SO RIGHT NOW...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR PLANS. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN LOW BETWEEN THE MODELS
MAKES PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIFFICULT TO PREDICT FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS FAVORS A COASTAL TRACK AND KEEPS THE NW DRIER AND
THE ECMWF LAGS AND FAVORS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD MAKE
PRECIP CHANCES GREATER IN THE NW VS THE SE. EITHER WAY IT WILL STILL
BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WNW WINDS SUSTAINED AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY AND
DECREASING TO 5-10 KT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE MSLP GRADIENT
WEAKENS. EXPECT CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS ASSOC/W ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE THU/THU NIGHT AND INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRI-SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. -VINCENT
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 7TH...
RDU 15 1988
GSO 14 1988
FAY 13 1959
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 7TH...
RDU 21 1988
GSO 21 1988
FAY 31 1988
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY 8TH...
RDU 7 1970
GSO 6 1970
FAY 14 1970
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ011-
027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...BADGETT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
552 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
STRATUS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE WEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT...IMPACTING KCDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. CEILINGS MAY
FURTHER DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAPROCK. WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR KLBB AT THIS TIME
AS CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING
FARTHER WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. ICING
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN UP THROUGH A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FLOW WILL VEER NWRLY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS THIS EVENING
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AS ARCING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE...WHILE INDICATING OPEN ON OBJECTIVE AND MODEL
ANALYSIS...APPEARS TO BE WEAKLY CLOSED ON WV IMAGERY THUS
SUGGESTING THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WHILE THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
NOT OFFER ANY RAINFALL...IT LIKELY WILL HELP THE MOIST ADVECTION
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY EXTENDING TO SRN KS. THE RAP WOULD
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATTM THOUGH
ALL NWP SOLUTIONS INDICATE A WRAP-AROUND MORPHOLOGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE AND
AMALGAMATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
WOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS AFFECTING THE NWRN ZONES AS WELL. AN
ATTENDANT RISK OF PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY GRIMM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER HAVE NOT DIMINISHED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FA EXTENDING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MAXIMUM HEIGHT
FALLS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHARP TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
OVER THE AREA...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE EASTWARD POSITION
ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE TOO LATE TO INTERACT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS FAR WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY MORNING MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
WITHIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH STRONG
DOWNGLIDE ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS STILL MUCH SHARPER WITH THIS
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. ONE THING THESE MODELS DO AGREE
UPON ARE STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HIT THE GYM AND BECOME PUMPED UP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A
RETURN TO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR WEST TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 18 58 30 54 24 / 0 0 20 0 0
TULIA 20 53 34 56 26 / 0 0 40 10 0
PLAINVIEW 21 53 36 57 27 / 0 0 40 10 0
LEVELLAND 22 54 38 58 27 / 0 0 40 10 0
LUBBOCK 22 53 38 59 28 / 0 0 50 10 0
DENVER CITY 26 55 39 58 29 / 0 0 40 10 0
BROWNFIELD 24 55 39 58 29 / 0 0 40 10 0
CHILDRESS 24 48 37 56 31 / 0 0 60 40 0
SPUR 26 52 40 61 31 / 0 0 60 30 0
ASPERMONT 29 52 44 63 33 / 0 0 70 50 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
THE LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST...AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO CENTRAL CANADA. AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO FLOW SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN...BUT THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE STRATUS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS HAVE WARMED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND BETWEEN 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RESPECTIVELY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS UPSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WHICH MAKES CLOUD FORECAST PROBLEMATIC. DO NOT THINK
MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD COVER...BUT DO INDICATE
DIMINISHING LOW LEVEL RH THAT WOULD POINT TOWARDS THIS CLOUD COVER
BREAKING UP. SO GENERALLY WENT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN SKY CONDITIONS TURNING
MOSTLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE INCOMING SURFACE
HIGH...WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DECOUPLING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP...AND IF THIS OCCURS...LOW TEMPS
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN IN THE GOING FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...DID SIDE WITH THE COLDER GUIDANCE BUT DID NOT GO WITH THE
COLDEST SOLUTIONS IN CASE DECOUPLING DID NOT OCCUR. THIS WOULD
PLACE LOW TEMPS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 BELOW...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS OVER N-C WISCONSIN...AND A FEW WARMER SPOTS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO 25 T0 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL GO ON AS PLANNED...WITH THE CAVEAT
THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A CALM WIND FOR A PERIOD LATE TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW MODERATION...AND WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...READINGS WILL RETURN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
APPARENT TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE
MORNING...SO WILL RUN HEADLINES THROUGH 18Z.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 240 PM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS UNDER
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PCPN POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE
WAA FLOW. INITIAL WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERED ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PCPN BUT UNSURE OF SATURATION FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN SOME ZL-
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WARRANTED.
MAIN SHORTWAVE TO PASS OVER LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH
PROGS INDICATED UP TO 0.25 WATER EQUIVALENT BY FRIDAY MIDNIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A MIX OF ZR/S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND THEREFORE HAS THE
POTENTIAL OF A HEADLINE FOR MIXED PCPN LATE THIS WEEK. HWO ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING THIS CONCERN.
SURFACE RIDGE UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME TO END PCPN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WAA PATTERN STARTING UP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT
OVER THE AREA LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED WITH
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION TOWARD TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE LOW END CHANCES OF PCPN WITH THE VARIOUS FROPAS.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...END PERIODS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME COLDER AIR TO WORK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST TUE JAN 7 2014
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING EAST INTO THE STATE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF MVFR CLOUD COVER REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHERN CANADA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO GET PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT NOT
SURE HOW WELL THE MODELS HAVE THIS HANDLED. WILL EXTEND THE TEMPO
MVFR GROUP TO LATE AFTERNOON...BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GET EXTENDED AGAIN
IF THE CLOUDS HOLD TOGETHER. IF THE CLOUDS DO BREAK UP AS
ANTICIPATED BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1137 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S..
WITHIN THIS DEEP TROUGH...THE POLAR VORTEX STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO INTO LOWER MI. THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTEX
HAS BEEN ON ITS BACK SIDE...NOTED BY 925MB TEMPS AT 12Z OF -34C AT
MPX AND -35C AT INL...OR 3-3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL.
THIS ARCTIC AIR HAS MODIFIED SOMEWHAT THROUGH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT
925MB TEMPS PER RAP ANALYSIS ARE STILL NEAR -30C. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.
HOWEVER...A PERSISTENT 10 TO 20 MPH WIND WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH HAVE
KEPT WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 35 TO 45 BELOW ZERO. THESE WINDS ARE A
RESULT OF A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND A DEEP LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC.
THE POLAR VORTEX IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND GREAT LAKES REGION...LIFTING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO ENTER THE
REGION. ONE CAVEAT TO THE WARMER AIR IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WHICH MODELS SHOW DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE
OF THE VORTEX...COMING INTO NORTHERN WI AT 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SLOW SOME OF THE WARM UP.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES...925MB READINGS ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...REACHING -24 TO -28C BY 12Z TUE AND TO -18 TO -
22C BY 00Z WED. DESPITE THE WARMING ABOVE THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL COOL DOWN CLOSE TO READINGS SEEN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF
WINDS WHICH ARE GOING TO BE LIGHTER. HOWEVER...A BREEZE WILL PERSIST
SINCE THE SURFACE RIDGE IS STILL OFF TO OUR WEST...WHICH MEANS WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO STAY BETWEEN 35 AND 55 BELOW ZERO. WINDS
DO MANAGE TO BACK MORE WEST TO POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY...
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH MN THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES SHORTWAVE. THIS BACKING OF WINDS PLUS WARMER
925MB VALUES AND SOME SUN SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS TOWARDS THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AT LEAST SOUTHWEST OF I-94. NORTH OF I-94...WIND
CHILL ISSUES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE WARNING EXPIRES.
SKY COVER REMAINS A TRICKY FORECAST IN THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS.
ANTICIPATING A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ONCE ANY
DIURNAL STRATOCUMULUS DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
MN LOOKS TO MAKE A RUN AT LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD THEN INCREASE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH EVEN SOME LOWER STRATUS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT PICKS UP AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR FROM
THE CLOUDS AS WELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AS CLOUD HEIGHTS THERE FALL.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PATTERN GREATLY DEAMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE U.S....BECOMING ZONAL BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE TEMPERATURE FLOW FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE PACIFIC. WE DO
HAVE TO WAIT JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER AS THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BRINGS A BRIEF REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE NOTICED THE MOST IN
NORTHERN WI WHERE WIND CHILLS LOOK TO STAY DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 35
BELOW ZERO. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS PROGGED TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH SHOULD HELP TO CALM THE WINDS DOWN...WHICH DOES BRING A
CONCERN FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
WISCONSIN. AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW
0.1 INCHES...SO TEMPERATURES COULD REALLY TANK IN THE TYPICALLY
COLD SPOTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AREA KICKS WARM ADVECTION INTO HIGH GEAR ON THURSDAY. 925MB TEMPS
CLIMB TO -6 TO -10C. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE QUITE A FEW CLOUDS
AROUND...THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP PROPEL TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20...ABOUT 30 DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY. NOTE...THERE COULD BE SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE. THERE WERE SOME
HINTS OF THE 06.15Z SREF OF SOME POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WARM ADVECTION...BUT KEPT THESE OUT WITH NO OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING IT.
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...
1. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THU...TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRI AND GREAT LAKES ON SAT. A PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON THE ORDER OF A 0.5-0.7 INCHES COMES INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY. COMBINING THIS MOISTURE WITH THE DPVA AND
ISENTROPIC LOOKS TO YIELD SOME PRECIPITATION. HAVE RAISED POPS ABOUT
5-10 PERCENT...BUT IF THE TRENDS IN THE 06.12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE
THESE CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER. NOTE THAT THE 06.12Z
CANADIAN HOLDS PRECIPITATION OFF TIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS PARTLY
THE CAUSE TOO OF THE SMALLER CHANCE INCREASE. THE TYPE IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN ISSUE TOO...DUE TO A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AND
WARM LAYER INITIALLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS ONCE THINGS
SATURATE...EVAPORATIVE COOLING KNOCKS DOWN ANY WARM LAYER AND CLOUDS
ARE SEEDED WITH ICE. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. ANY LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD OCCUR
AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.
2. A SERIES OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PREVIOUSLY ECMWF RUNS WERE SUGGESTING THAT
THESE TROUGHS WERE GOING TO HOLD BACK OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. NOW
THEY ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...LIKE THE 05.12Z GFS RUN. THIS MEANS A
BIT LESS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AS MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THE
SATURDAY SYSTEM IS SLOWER TO COME BACK. THEREFORE...CHANCES WERE
LOWERED. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ENDS UP
MAINLY DRY.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE FRIDAY AND SUNDAY SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS HELP TO PULL EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925MB TEMPS
GET UP CLOSE TO 0C ON FRIDAY...COOL SLIGHTLY TO -2 TO -6C ON
SATURDAY...BACK UP TO 0-3C ON SUNDAY AND DOWN TO -2 TO -6C ON
MONDAY. EACH OF THESE DAYS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...AND SUNDAY THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD TRY TO
PUSH 40. RAISED HIGHS A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST OF THE COLD. WARM ADVECTION
CLOUD ALREADY STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE ONLY MID AND
HIGH CLOUD WILL MAKE IT TO THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS LATEST MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF BOTH TAF
FORECAST LOCATIONS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
SO FAR NO RECORDS HAVE BEEN SET AT EITHER LA CROSSE OR ROCHESTER.
HOWEVER...A FEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT COOPERATIVE
OBSERVER SITES...
BYRON MN...........-24. OLD RECORD -10 IN 2010
FRIENDSHIP WI......-22. OLD RECORD -18 IN 1942
OWEN WI............-26. OLD RECORD -26 IN 1979
WINONA DAM 5A MN...-21 OLD RECORD -12 IN 1942
THE COLDEST THE WIND CHILL GOT TO IN LA CROSSE WAS -48 AND AT
ROCHESTER WAS -53. NEITHER MADE IT INTO THE TOP 10...BUT WERE ONLY
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE FEBRUARY 2-3 1996 ARCTIC OUTBREAK.
SEE OUR TOP NEWS STORY ON OUR WEBSITE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ARX FOR MORE
CLIMATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-
029-030.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...MW
CLIMATE...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1022 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 825 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES THIS EVENING. PLAN IS TO POST A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ONCE THE WARNING EXPIRES AT NOON TOMORROW. LOOKING AT OUR
CURRENT GRIDS...WOULD GUESS NOON TUE-NOON WED FOR TIMING OF THE
ADVISORY...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON ANY CHANGES TO THE
T/WIND/APPARENT-T FCST.
UPDATED WSW AND HWO JUST SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO THE GULF COAST OF
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POLAR VORTEX IS SHIFTING EAST INTO
MICHIGAN THOUGH THE CORE OF THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR IS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT WARMED TOO MUCH SO FAR TODAY...WITH
READINGS HOLDING STEADY FROM THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE 35 TO 45 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
RANGE. AREAS OF THIN CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WITH A FEW FLURRIES BEING
REPORTED ON AREA OBSERVATION SITES. AS THE ARCTIC AIR
MODIFIES...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS/FLURRY CHANCES.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE GULF COAST...BUT
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL CANADA. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODIFYING ALOFT...BRISK WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THE
EXTREME COLD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BUT WITH THIN CLOUDS DROPPING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND MINNESOTA...FIGURE THE REGION WILL HAVE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE
WINDS PUSHES IN DRIER AIR IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE SUSTAINED
WINDS AND A MODIFYING AIRMASS...TEMPS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WILL LIKELY BE A
FEW DEGREES COLDER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. BUT WITH WINDS REMAINING
IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 50
DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE. THUS NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES.
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OVERHEAD. THE WEST WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG OR GUSTY AS
TODAY...AND COMBINED WITH FURTHER MODIFYING OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...SHOULD SEE TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
ACCORDING TO THE LEADING GUIDANCE. THE EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE FOLLOWED WITH SOME RESOLUTION WITH A FEW PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FOR STARTERS...ANTICIPATE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL TAKE ITS TIME
TO DEPART THIS WEEK EVEN THOUGH H850 TEMPERATURES INCREASE. VERY
COLD DRY AIR MASS WILL BE RECYCLED BACK NORTH WITH THE RETURN FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANTICIPATED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER A
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE LARGE DIURNAL CHANGES WITH
SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER
MOST LOCATIONS.
RETURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS LATER THURSDAY SO TEMPS
WILL START TO ASCEND QUICKER WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING
THE FREEZING MARK THIS WEEKEND OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. CLOUDS MAY
BE ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH...BUT EXPECT THE
AREA TO REMAIN DRY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL SETTLED OVER THE
AREA.
MODEL TIMING OF VARIOUS SHORT WAVES IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW POINTING
TO A FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A WEAK RIDGE SETTLES
OVER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES OVER LATER SUNDAY. AGAIN MODEL TIME IN QUESTION DUE TO
TIMING OF THESE SHORT WAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW AND LIKELY WILL NEED
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST MON JAN 6 2014
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR DOMINATES THE
AREA. THOUGH MARGINAL...WL INCLUDE LLWS OVERNIGHT AS SFC WINDS
HAVE COME DOWN A BIT...AND INVERSION WL STRENGTHEN/LOWER BY
MORNING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TDH
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1255 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING OUT AS WARMER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND IS
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND
CONTINUED MILD WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
BKN-OVC MID LVL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE WEAK ECHOS ON
UPSTREAM RADARS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE BOX CWA
BORDER BUT STILL FEEL THERE MAY BE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES
POSSIBLE. IN EXTREME W MA/CT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THE WAVE APPROACHES. HOWEVER...AM NOTING DECENT SUBSIDENCE
DIRECTLY BEHIND THIS FEATURE SO RAPID CLEARING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKIES/POPS/TEMPS/DWPTS WITH THIS
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL INVOKE BROAD SCALE ASCENT OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE /CONTINENTAL IN NATURE/ RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT /IN ADDITION TO OCEAN-EFFECT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE WATERS/. HRRR IS HINTING AT POSSIBLE FLURRIES BUT IT
APPEARS THE BETTER ASCENT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
SOUTH WITH MUCH OF THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DEEP-
LAYER SUBSIDENCE. WILL KEEP WITH A DRY FORECAST...BUT HAVE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.
IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N FROM THE SE CONUS. CONSIDERING
W WINDS /BREEZY ALONG THE SHORES AND ADJACENT WATERS/ AND EXPECTED
PARTY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ANTICIPATING A SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THURSDAY...
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE NE CONUS. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE /ALBEIT STILL A LITTLE BRISK OVER THE WATERS AND ADJACENT
SHORES/. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS AROUND THE MID- TO UPPER-20S.
THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRES SLIDES E ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN S/SWLY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF WHICH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF A WARMER-MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS AND S
WINDS...LOWS WILL RANGE AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-TEENS /WARMER ALONG
THE SHORES/.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* GRADUALLY WARMING TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND
* LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY
* MAINLY DRY AND MILD EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
A PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
POLAR VORTEX RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE LACK OF ANY HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCKING WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER
CONDITIONS TO OUR REGION. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS.
08/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST WITH AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE MILD WEATHER
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN
GFS AND HOLDS ON TO THE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. WE CONTINUE
TOP FAVOR THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING SUNDAY. WEST
COAST RIDGE AND MIDWEST TROUGH SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MOVES OFFSHORE.
MODELS ARE STILL FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AS
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. SOME
LIGHT QPF IS GENERATED FRI MORNING WHICH MAY MEAN SOME LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES FOR OUR REGION. WE HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AS AREA OF
MOISTURE MOVES OFFSHORE BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND
DEEPENING MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIGHT...BUT ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET...WHICH WILL BRING A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVER OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HAVE GONE HIGHER THAN MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
TEMPERATURES BE WARMER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG WINDS WOULD BE ENHANCED.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
MONDAY...
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND A BIT COOLER...BUT TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SOMETIME IN THIS TIME FRAME COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS...
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY.
THROUGH TONIGHT...
VFR. GRADUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH BUILDING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE W-NW.
FRIDAY...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY MOVING
FROM W TO E INTO MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMS POSSIBLE ON SOME
RUNWAYS. VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THESE -SHSN WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR VSBYS DURING THEM.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING IN SNOW.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR
IN THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED INTERIOR FZRA POSSIBLE. LOWERING TO
IFR LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SMALL CRAFTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MAINLY FOR SEAS BUT ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT. OCEAN-
EFFECT CLOUDS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO CALM. BREEZY WEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KTS DURING THE DAY MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WITH LIGHTER
FLOW TO THE SOUTH...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS TO 10-15
FT OVER OPEN WATERS. WINDS SHIFTING TO WEST DURING SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS LIKELY. VSBYS REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND
FOG LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...DOODY/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1207 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE THEREAFTER...LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...HRRR AND RUC13 HAVE ADDED IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER W ORANGE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 500-700 HPA TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES THEREFORE ARE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY AT THE MOMENT
TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING A FEW MORE DEGREES IN TEMPERATURE DROP WHEN
THE CLOUDS DECREASE LATE. THEREFORE LOWS REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME AS
FORECAST BEFORE...MOSTLY IN THE TEENS MOST LOCATIONS AND LOWER
20S FOR NYC. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE NYC
METRO AREA AND ALONG THE COAST COULD CLIMB JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALLOWING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF NEW YORK
CITY. ANY SNOW THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN A MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. EXPECT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT
HYDROLOGIC EVENT.
AN OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED COVERING THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM
FLOODING ALONG LOCAL AREA RIVERS CAUSED BY HEAVY RAIN AND
TEMPERATURES RISING SHARPLY THROUGH THE 50S STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION...A WIND SWEPT HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE WIDESPREAD URBAN
FLOODING AS A FROZEN SURFACE GROUND LAYER THAWS RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST EAST OF NEW
YORK CITY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE AND WEAK LOW LVL WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE FOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
RETREATING OFFSHORE AND AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN RAPID LOW LVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF ITS DEVELOPING TRAILING COLD
FRONT...AIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW LVL SE WIND
JET...CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS AND
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ALONG LOCAL AREA RIVERS WILL
INCREASE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
OUR FIRST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
FRIDAY...CONTAINING ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM BY LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
WEST WINDS UNDER 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT NW ROUGHLY 12-14Z
THURSDAY MORNING...STILL UNDER 10KT. BCMG LIGHT AND VRB LATE DAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURS NIGHT...VFR.
.FRI...CHC MVFR IN SCT AM -SHSN AND SCT PM MIX PCPN.
.SAT...MVFR LOWERING TO IFR. RAIN. CHC S GUSTS 40KT+ ALONG WITH
LIKELY LLWS IN AFTN/EVE HOURS.
.SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER PSBL IN RAIN EARLY...BCMG VFR. WSW GUSTS
30-40KT.
.MONDAY...VFR. WSW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFELCT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS KEEPING A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA.
THEREFORE...GUSTY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GUSTS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE UP TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
SEAS REMAINING BELOW 5 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
PREPARE FOR STRONG WINDS...HIGH SEAS...HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH SURF
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
RETREATING OFFSHORE AND AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY
FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL GALES SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO
15 FT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION ACROSS
ATLANTIC FACING SHORES LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ONCE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EST OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
MAINLY BE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ICE JAM FLOODING...A HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/GC
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/JM/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/JM/BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC/GC
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
256 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS BUT DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH...WHICH
LOOKS TO SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS FGEN THAT HAD DRIVEN SOME LIGHT
SNOW EARLIER HAS FADED LEAVING ONLY CLOUD COVER BEHIND...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH ONE MORE COLD SUBZERO
NIGHT TONIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING PRECIP TYPE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS PROVIDE RAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WHICH
DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER. THIS SNOW WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN THIS LIFT. DECENT
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND WOULD SUSPECT
THAT VIS IS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...AS
SAMPLING OF THIS SNOW FROM SURFACE OBS HAS BEEN LACKING. WITH THIS
WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTING THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
ALSO EXITING...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH 1 TO 3 MILE VIS IN THIS SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...COULD EASILY SEE
VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TRENDING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS DEPARTS COULD BE IN
THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
AFTER ANY LINGER SNOW DEPARTS THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT ATTENTION
BACK TOWARDS TEMPS TONIGHT. VORT MAX TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
IMPULSE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS OCCURRING...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATION OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT...DEPARTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
IN PLACE. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT AND AM NOW EXPECTING
LOW TEMPS TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS
CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. COLDEST TEMPS OF 10 TO 12 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE IF NOT CALM TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...AND FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. ALTHOUGH...SPORADIC HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY...THE CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID
LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...ALREADY BACKED WINDS AND ONGOING WAA WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
MID DAY...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THIS WAVE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
PUSH NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO OBSERVE THIS
PRECIP...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING TO THE FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
EVALUATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AS ALTHOUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/CRYSTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIP WILL START OFF AS MIX
OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...COULD OBSERVE THIS MIX INITIALLY BUT WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. THEN
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL OBSERVE
ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS VARYING PRECIP TYPE FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-88...WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING ALSO NEEDED TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE
OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY IF THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING WAA WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER WARMING OF THIS COLUMN WILL YIELD LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BETTER PRECIP AXIS PUSHES NORTH
BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO
FALL. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REINFORCING LIFT OWING TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. ALONG
WITH THIS LIFT...THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD.
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS...WITH RISES EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS RAIN AND SLIGHT WARMING
WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TO BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ASPECT IN THE HWO...WITH AN
ESF LIKELY ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
LIGHT SNOW...THEN SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY EARLY
EVENING.
* CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CIGS LOWERING
IFR THURSDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THEN...THE HGI WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SELY-SSELY AND INCREASE...BUT REMAIN UNDER 10KT. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND SOME LIGHT PCPN. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH A SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO
EXTEND TO 15KFT...INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IF
THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT QUITE THAT DEEP...PCPN COULD START OUT AS
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE PROFILE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL LOWER WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING THE MOIST LAYER WILL
NO LONGER BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION AND ANY
LINGERING PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...VIS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN STARTING AS -SN AND THEN CHANGING OVER
TO -FZDZ BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGE OVER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CATAGORY
CHANGES.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
300 AM CST
CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET
TODAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE
TO BUILD TO THE EAST...BUT SLOWER THAN THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
DEEPENS AS TRACKS EAST AS WELL...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE LAKE. IN THE MEANTIME...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING...TRACK NORTHEAST TO LAKE
MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...QUICKLY SHIFTING WINDS TO
WESTERLY.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AS SEEN IN
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS WAVES WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE
NEARSHORE FORECAST.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1152 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.DISCUSSION...
915 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. MAINLY
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS BUT DID LOWER MINS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH...WHICH
LOOKS TO SEE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO REMOVED
THE SLIGHT POP IN THE FAR SOUTH AS FGEN THAT HAD DRIVEN SOME LIGHT
SNOW EARLIER HAS FADED LEAVING ONLY CLOUD COVER BEHIND...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
MDB
//PREV DISCUSSION...
335 PM CST
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS ARE WITH ONE MORE COLD SUBZERO
NIGHT TONIGHT...SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING PRECIP TYPE LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE WARMING TEMPS PROVIDE RAIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
OF CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW WHICH
DEVELOPED THIS PAST AFTERNOON PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PONTIAC TO RENSSELAER. THIS SNOW WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ANTICIPATED MID LEVEL FEATURE TRAVERSING THE REGION...WITH
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AIDING IN THIS LIFT. DECENT
RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED AND WOULD SUSPECT
THAT VIS IS GENERALLY STAYING IN THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE...AS
SAMPLING OF THIS SNOW FROM SURFACE OBS HAS BEEN LACKING. WITH THIS
WAVE SLOWLY DEPARTING THIS EVENING...EXPECT THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE LIFT TO WEAKEN WHILE THE FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WEAKENS WHILE
ALSO EXITING...WITH LATEST RAP ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWING THIS
WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH 1 TO 3 MILE VIS IN THIS SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS...COULD EASILY SEE
VIS BRIEFLY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES. HAVE LIKELY POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
TRENDING TOWARDS CHANCE POPS AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING...WITH SNOW AMOUNTS BY THE TIME THIS DEPARTS COULD BE IN
THE HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.
AFTER ANY LINGER SNOW DEPARTS THIS EVENING...WILL SHIFT ATTENTION
BACK TOWARDS TEMPS TONIGHT. VORT MAX TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND
IMPULSE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS OCCURRING...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CONTINUED MODERATION OF THIS
COLD AIR MASS TONIGHT...DEPARTING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
THE SOUTH AND THIS HIGH OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW FOR A GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
IN PLACE. HAVE FURTHER LOWERED TEMPS TONIGHT AND AM NOW EXPECTING
LOW TEMPS TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THIS
CLOUD FREE SKY...WHICH AT THIS TIME IS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80. COLDEST TEMPS OF 10 TO 12 BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND CLOSER TO THE WISCONSIN
BORDER. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE IF NOT CALM TONIGHT AND DONT ANTICIPATE WIND CHILLS TO
STRAY TOO FAR FROM LOW TEMPS TONIGHT...AND FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. ALTHOUGH...SPORADIC HIGHER WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL YIELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BRIEFLY
OVERNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL START OFF DRY...THE CONTINUED
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED MID
LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS
WAVE APPROACHES...ALREADY BACKED WINDS AND ONGOING WAA WILL BRING
A SWATH OF PRECIP NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH
MID DAY...AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA AS THIS WAVE AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
PUSH NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA TO OBSERVE THIS
PRECIP...WITH GUIDANCE VARYING TO THE FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THIS PRECIP SHIELD. HAVE INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINING CWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILE WILL NEED TO BE CAREFULLY
EVALUATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING...AS ALTHOUGH
THE COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/CRYSTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE FOR AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE ITS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIP WILL START OFF AS MIX
OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA...COULD OBSERVE THIS MIX INITIALLY BUT WITH A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS PRECIP TO BE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW. THEN
AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WILL OBSERVE
ALL SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS VARYING PRECIP TYPE FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF WET SNOW FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF I-88...WITH HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST. HAVE NOT
MADE MENTION OF ANY ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS...BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING ALSO NEEDED TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH ANY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION COULD BE
OBSERVED AND ESPECIALLY IF THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
ONGOING WAA WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN INTO FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. FURTHER WARMING OF THIS COLUMN WILL YIELD LIQUID
PRECIP...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S.
THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH A PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE BETTER PRECIP AXIS PUSHES NORTH
BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY MID DAY FRIDAY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO
FALL. YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF REINFORCING LIFT OWING TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW. ALONG
WITH THIS LIFT...THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THIS PERIOD.
RESULTANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND 1 INCH AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS RAINFALL COINCIDING WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK
COULD RAISE SOME ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO AREA RIVERS AND
CREEKS...WITH RISES EXPECTED. ALSO...THIS RAIN AND SLIGHT WARMING
WILL CREATE A SETUP FOR ICE JAM FLOODING TO BECOME MORE OF AN
ISSUE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS ASPECT IN THE HWO...WITH AN
ESF LIKELY ISSUED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW...THEN SWITCHING OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
BY EARLY EVENING.
* CIGS/VIS LOWERING TO MVFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND AND CIGS
LOWERING IFR THURSDAY EVENING.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH CALM TO LGT/VRBL WINDS INTO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. BY
THEN...THE HGI WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL BECOME
SELY-SSELY AND INCREASE...BUT REMAIN UNDER 10KT. A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS
AND SOME LIGHT PCPN. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH A SATURATED LAYER EXPECTED TO
EXTEND TO 15KFT...INITIAL PCPN SHOULD BE LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IF
THE MOIST LAYER IS NOT QUITE THAT DEEP...PCPN COULD START OUT AS
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE PROFILE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL LOWER WITH
TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING THE MOIST LAYER WILL
NO LONGER BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION AND ANY
LINGERING PCPN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. WITH
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...VIS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH MVFR TO IFR LEVELS INTO THE
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ONSET OF PCPN.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PCPN STARTING AS -SN AND THEN CHANGING OVER
TO -FZDZ BY EARLY EVENING...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THE CHANGE OVER.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIG TRENDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CATAGORY
CHANGES.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
FRIDAY...WINTRY MIX EARLY...BECOMING ALL RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE. MVFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MVFR POSSIBLE.
KJB
&&
.MARINE...
214 PM CST
A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN...AT LEAST OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SCOOTS
EAST LATER THURSDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE. THIS
WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP AN
INVERSION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT GUST
MAGNITUDE BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE REALIZED A FAIRLY STOUT
SUSTAINED WIND OF AROUND 25 KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HAVING THE LOW PASS DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. THIS WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN AS IT DOES SO TURNING
WINDS WESTERLY. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WHICH COULD MEAN ACTIVE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE AMOUNT OF ICE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS NEARSHORE AREAS AS SEEN IN
WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM YESTERDAY.
MTF
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
331 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TODAY-TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS INCREASED
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...HAS ACTUALLY LED TO A
LITTLE SEEDER FEEDER LIGHT SNOW TO MIX WITH THE DRIZZLE OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS WELL. THE SHORTWAVE/WEAK LIFT WILL GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGRESSES...WHICH WILL
BASICALLY END THE CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. SO HAVE DECIDED TO END THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...AS THIS AREA WILL
HAVE A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. WILL KEEP THE
ADVISORY GOING FOR
WILL SEE THE LOW CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AS
RETURN SURFACE FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WELL.
FRIDAY: THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE PLAINS...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY. A LOT BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PULLS INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 135 FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS ALSO LED TO MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT GETTING SHUNTED FURTHER EAST WITH
EACH RUN. SO HAVE DIMINISHED POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135
SOME.
THIS SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY HAVE A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...
BUT MORNING SURFACE TEMPS ON FRIDAY...MAY MAKE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE TRICKY WHEN IT COMES TO PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SURFACE TEMPS MAY BE JUST BELOW FREEZING...WHEN PRECIPITATION
BEGINS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
RAIN FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. BUT EXPECT THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO CHANGE
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY TO RAIN...AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN MAY BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR UNTIL AROUND
NOON TIME FRIDAY...WITH ANY GLAZING ON ELEVATED SURFACES. WITH
EASTWARD PUSH OF THE MAIN RAIN SWATH...THINK HEAVIEST QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SO SOAKING RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING
AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CENTRAL KANSAS...AS THIS AREA MAY NEED
A WINTER ADVISORY WITH LATER FORECASTS...BECAUSE SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF GLAZING.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: NOT ALOT OF COLD AIR AFTER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW LEADING TO A
NICE WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE TEMPS ACTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER A WEEK FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
NEXT QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. VERY LITTLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...WITH POSSIBLY
JUST A SPRINKLE CHANCE AT BEST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR SUNDAY
EVENING.
GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SO
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES SOME FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE
50S. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
60 FOR HIGHS. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER MODEL
RUNS/FORECASTS GO EVEN WARMER WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES.
REST OF THE EXTENDED: THE GENERAL THEME FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A
GLANCING BLOW FOR MOST OF KANSAS FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW STRONG THIS COLDER AIR WILL BE...BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY
EAST OF THE AREA.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MAINLY IFR AVIATION FORECAST. 0000 UTC RUNS OF NAM/GFS STILL APPEAR
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING CONFIDENCE OF LATTER TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST. RUC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR...STILL HAVE THE BEST CORRELATION WITH
ONGOING WEATHER/TRENDS. CHANGES FROM 0000 UTC TAFS ARE FOR A BIT
SLOWER ONSET...AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE NORTH COMPONENT
AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR. AGAIN THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. OPTED AGAIN TO BE QUITE STINGY WITH FZDZ FORECAST. WITH
INFLUX OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU...NOT
EXPECTING A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AND RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 35 33 43 28 / 10 30 50 10
HUTCHINSON 34 30 42 27 / 10 20 50 10
NEWTON 34 32 42 28 / 10 30 50 10
ELDORADO 35 34 44 28 / 10 30 60 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 36 34 47 30 / 10 30 60 10
RUSSELL 34 27 41 25 / 10 10 30 0
GREAT BEND 34 28 41 26 / 10 10 30 0
SALINA 33 28 40 27 / 10 20 50 10
MCPHERSON 33 30 41 27 / 10 20 50 10
COFFEYVILLE 37 35 49 31 / 20 50 80 30
CHANUTE 36 34 46 30 / 20 40 80 20
IOLA 35 34 46 30 / 20 40 80 20
PARSONS-KPPF 36 35 48 30 / 20 40 80 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ071-
072-095-096-099-100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1155 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS
IS UNDERWAY INTO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF. DRIZZLE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A SIMILAR OUTCOME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
THIS WILL RESULT IN DEPOSITION OF A LIGHT GLAZE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES AND UNTREATED ROADS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
COVERED WELL WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...HOWEVER A
FURTHER EXPANSION TO THE NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. SOME FREEZING FOG WITH LOCALLY LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DAWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE COMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
STRONGER PACIFIC UPPER TROF DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BETTER FETCH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS FOR FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN. THE
LATEST GFS SHUNTS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIKEWISE QPF EAST
QUICKER ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...THOUGH
THE NAM REMAINS MORE BULLISH AND THE ECMWF A BIT OF A COMPROMISE.
FOR NOW HAVE MADE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS AND QPF
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH NOT NEARLY
AS MUCH AS THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN SOME ICING...PRIMARILY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE FUTURE WINTER HEADLINE.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
ABOVE CLIMO FOR A CHANGE.
DARMOFAL
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SUPPORT A DRY AND MILDER
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS WHICH WILL AFFECT
DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
A TROF ON SUNDAY WHICH SUGGESTS A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
CHALLENGE BY MID-WEEK WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM TROF WITHIN THE DEVELOPING EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW A BIT COLDER
AIR THAN ADVERTISED TO ADVECT SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
DARMOFAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
MAINLY IFR AVIATION FORECAST. 0000 UTC RUNS OF NAM/GFS STILL APPEAR
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING CONFIDENCE OF LATTER TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST. RUC AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE HRRR...STILL HAVE THE BEST CORRELATION WITH
ONGOING WEATHER/TRENDS. CHANGES FROM 0000 UTC TAFS ARE FOR A BIT
SLOWER ONSET...AS SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE NORTH COMPONENT
AND ADVECTING DRIER AIR. AGAIN THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. OPTED AGAIN TO BE QUITE STINGY WITH FZDZ FORECAST. WITH
INFLUX OF MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THU...NOT
EXPECTING A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AND RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 0000 UTC. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 25 35 31 43 / 20 10 50 70
HUTCHINSON 21 34 29 42 / 20 10 50 60
NEWTON 22 34 30 42 / 20 10 50 70
ELDORADO 23 35 30 44 / 30 10 50 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 26 36 32 47 / 30 10 60 80
RUSSELL 16 34 26 41 / 10 10 20 40
GREAT BEND 17 34 27 41 / 10 10 30 40
SALINA 14 33 27 40 / 20 10 30 60
MCPHERSON 20 33 29 41 / 20 10 40 60
COFFEYVILLE 28 37 32 49 / 40 20 60 90
CHANUTE 26 36 31 46 / 40 20 50 90
IOLA 25 35 31 46 / 40 20 40 90
PARSONS-KPPF 28 36 32 48 / 40 20 50 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ069>072-
083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATELLITE IS GIVING A GOOD CLEARING SIGNAL WITH THE ARCTIC
STRATUS DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850 WINDS ARE
CLEARLY SOUTHWEST SHUNTING THESE CLOUDS RAPIDLY EAST. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE RAP IS SUGGESTING REFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BUT THE 06Z NAM INDICATES THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP
BUT FARTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF SOLID WEST AND SOUTHWEST 800 MB
WINDS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/OR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. SIMILARLY...LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO JUST THE 20S WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FASTER 06Z NAM IS EVEN
SHUNTING THE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO ANY SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ECM WAS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH ACROSS KS WHILE THE THE GFS WAS ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE GEM WAS EAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET WAS IN
THE MIDDLE LIKE THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SNOW CHANCES HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE VS
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE WA/OR SYSTEM
SLOWS THEN MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TOMORROW A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB DURING
THE DAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN
OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WAS LOST FOR THE 06Z
UPDATE. THIS PROVIDES HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE IN A LOW PRECIP/IF ANY TYPE OF AN EVENT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A DIVING JET TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND WEAK OMEGA
IN A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD RESULT IN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER AT
TIMES TO A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND LIFT GENERALLY ABOVE THE HIGHEST RH...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
EXPANDS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 10 C IN
THE SW...ABOVE ZERO IN THE NE. GUIDANCE REBOUNDS TEMPS
NICELY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 50S SW...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN FROM THE NW...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER LL MOISTURE IS LACKING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
QUICK PACE OF SYSTEM AND TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED LOW SLGHT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES DEPENDING
ON TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK PATTERN CONTINUES TO SEE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH FAST MOVING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES PENDING TIMING OF THE WAVES. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND FORECAST IS DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS PENDING TIME OF DAY...MAY NEED TO ADD
A MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSING WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
STRATUS CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER THE WESTWARD
EXPANSION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING THE LAST HOUR. STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH...WITH IMPACT TO KVTN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SOME CONCERN THAT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE SOME REDUCED VSBY IS
POSSIBLE...FROM FOG...HOWEVER OBS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY YET. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT IT TO BE WEST OF THE TERMINAL SITES. TOMORROW MORNING
THE IFR STATUS WILL MIX OUT AND SKIES BECOME SCT/BKN VFR...AND
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1202 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
FCST TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE LOW COMPARED TO
REALITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRI-CITIES N AND E. USED CONSENSUS
OF SHORT-TERM MODELS TO INCREASE THEM THRU 9 AM...WHICH MODESTLY
BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP ABOUT 3F.
A VERY COMPLEX CLOUD COVER SITUATION IS UNFOLDING...WITH A TONGUE
OF CLEAR SKIES FROM STOCKTON KS UP TO THE TRI-CITIES...WITH LOW
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG TO THE NW...AND MID-LEVEL CIGS TO THE SE.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN HOW SKY COVER EVOLVES THE REST OF THE NIGHT
...BUT THE UPS CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLY
A TOUCH OF IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
5-10 MPH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE
EXTREMELY LOW VSBYS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRATUS OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA...THE
THREAT FOR FRZG DRIZZLE HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN.
OVERALL...EXPECT VARIABLE CLOUDS THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 953 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER DUE TO STRATUS COVERAGE
AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE...AS WELL AS THE QPF FIELD.
ALTHOUGH BROKEN BOW HAS DIPPED TO AS LOW AS 2 MILES
VISIBILITY...THIS APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED...SO LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST. GFS LAMP DATA SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SITUATION...AND THIS WOULD INDICATE NOT INCLUDING ANY FOG
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EASTWARDS. ON AVERAGE...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW AND
OTHERS WITH LESS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING WHILE STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ALONG A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD IA/IL. IN RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA WILL SPREAD
W/E TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MODELS
INDICATE PRESENCE OF DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND WAA/LIFT OVER THE
LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE
LLVL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM BUT IS PRESENT NONTHELESS. OUR AREA
IS ON THE BUFFER OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW POPS AND THE GFS HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS
FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE RAP IS THE MOST ROBUST IN SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND THE HRRR IS TRENDING TOWARD A FOG
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE SREF DO NOT. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY WILL TREND WITH MORE OF STRATUS VS FOG FOR
NOW AND HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE RETURN FLOW AND AS CLOUDS
DEPART WEST/EAST. HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SOME DEGREE WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE UPSWING COMPARED TO
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST 24 HRS OR SO.
THURSDAY EVENING STARTS OUT WITH W/SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE REGION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS..THIS
TROUGH SLIDES E/SE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL WORK THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z THE 5/700MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP THROUGH ERN NEB/KS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY PERIOD IS
NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND BECAUSE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN A E/SE SHIFT OF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. ALREADY BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE SFC SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SRLY WINDS SET UP OVER THE CWA. THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THAT...WITH MODELS ALSO
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE SWRLY FLOW AT 850MB...HELPING WITH SOME
WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z...WITH ONLY THE FZDZ MENTION GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH...AS THAT SRLY FLOW HELPS TO MOISTEN UP LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. THROUGH THE 12-18Z PERIOD...INHERITED FORECAST
ONLY HAD 50 POPS GOING IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WAS FINE
KEEPING THAT GOING...BUT DID TRIM THE WRN EDGE. THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MUCH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF THE LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BEING
E/SE OF THE CWA...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC/LOWER LEVEL COOL
FRONT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER. ALONG WITH THIS...MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE 7/500
MB TROUGH AXIS...THEN SWINGING THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...SO ADDED SOME LOW POPS BACK WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THAT FAR WEST BEHIND THE SFC/LOWER LEVEL FRONT
WONT BE AS GOOD...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THAT
MID LEVEL AXIS TO AMOUNT TO A LOT. ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH PRECIP THE CWA WILL ACTUALLY SEE...THE THERMAL PROFILE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS IS ALSO STILL IN QUESTION. STILL A CONCERN WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARMER LAYER OFF THE SFC...ITS NOT OVERLY
WARM...SO WHERE THE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING...SOME QUESTION
WITH WHETHER IT WOULD FALL AS FZRA OR SLEET. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON
SFC TEMPS...KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING...SO KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH SFC TEMPS WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THE 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...SO HAVE PTYPE MENTION AS RA/SN. PLENTY OF
THINGS TO IRON OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.
AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FORECAST
REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING TO SEE
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES.
MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS AT LEAST RISE INTO THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY IS THE ONLY OTHER TIME FRAME WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
GOING...AND THEY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF OVER THE AREA...WITH REALLY NO CHANCE FOR BETTER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK IN BEFORE IT GETS HERE. ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS/GEM A
TOUCH QUICKER SHOWING IT MAINLY A DAYTIME SUNDAY EVENT...WITH THE
ECMWF LINGERING THINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND COOLER
AIR - WHICH LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
40S...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT MAY SEE SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
LIVED BATCH OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF ALL OF THIS IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. HIGHS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST WED JAN 8 2014
REST OF TONIGHT THRU 12Z: HIGHLY VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING APPROACHING FROM THE SW. SO EXPECT MVFR
CIG TO BECOME SCT. WHETHER THE STRATUS RETURNS BEFORE DAYBREAK
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. CLEARING SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG /AND POSSIBLY IFR/ WITH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS CLOSE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW
THU: ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES. UNSURE IF STRATUS WILL BE AROUND.
EXPECT VFR TO DEVELOP BY 15Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT STRATOCU
AROUND 2K FT. S WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 23 KTS AT TIMES.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
THU EVE: HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE WHICH SUGGESTS THE
RETURN OF FOG/STRATUS. HOWEVER...S WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL KEEP THE
LOW-LEVELS MIXED. HOW THIS TRANSLATES TO CIGS/VSBYS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT SHOULD MITIGATE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO /VLIFR/.
CONFIDENCE: LOW
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1014 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER DUE TO STRATUS COVERAGE
AND BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE JUST A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE NORTH AS NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE...AS WELL AS THE QPF FIELD.
ALTHOUGH BROKEN BOW HAS DIPPED TO AS LOW AS 2 MILES
VISIBILITY...THIS APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED...SO LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST. GFS LAMP DATA SEEMS TO BE DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SITUATION...AND THIS WOULD INDICATE NOT INCLUDING ANY FOG
AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EASTWARDS. ON AVERAGE...SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITH MORE SNOW AND
OTHERS WITH LESS. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW CLOUD
COVER/STRATUS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AND SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD MORNING WHILE STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SETTLE ALONG A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST TOWARD IA/IL. IN RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS/WAA WILL SPREAD
W/E TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE MODELS
INDICATE PRESENCE OF DEEPER LLVL MOISTURE AND WAA/LIFT OVER THE
LOW CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE
LLVL MOISTURE THAN THE NAM BUT IS PRESENT NONTHELESS. OUR AREA
IS ON THE BUFFER OF THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT BUT SREF
CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW POPS AND THE GFS HAS BEEN HIT OR MISS
FOR LIGHT PCPN IN THIS AREA TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HALF OF THE SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS IN THE
RETURN FLOW. THE RAP IS THE MOST ROBUST IN SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND THE HRRR IS TRENDING TOWARD A FOG
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE NAM AND THE SREF DO NOT. WITH WINDS
REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY WILL TREND WITH MORE OF STRATUS VS FOG FOR
NOW AND HAVE THE NEXT SHIFT MONITOR THE FOG POTENTIAL CLOSELY.
THURSDAY IS STILL LOOKING DRY DURING THE DAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE RETURN FLOW AND AS CLOUDS
DEPART WEST/EAST. HAVE WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S...AND TEMPS MAY
STRUGGLE TO SOME DEGREE WHERE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS ON THE
GROUND. REGARDLESS...TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE UPSWING COMPARED TO
TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FIRST 24 HRS OR SO.
THURSDAY EVENING STARTS OUT WITH W/SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS OVER THE REGION...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS..THIS
TROUGH SLIDES E/SE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS...THEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL WORK THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. BY 00Z THE 5/700MB
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP THROUGH ERN NEB/KS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY PERIOD IS
NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOWER
LEVEL/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND BECAUSE THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN A E/SE SHIFT OF THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. ALREADY BY 00Z
THURSDAY...THE SFC SHOWS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SRLY WINDS SET UP OVER THE CWA. THROUGH
SUNRISE FRIDAY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE WITH THAT...WITH MODELS ALSO
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE SWRLY FLOW AT 850MB...HELPING WITH SOME
WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONTINUE TO KEEP ANY POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH 12Z...WITH ONLY THE FZDZ MENTION GOING IN THE FAR
SOUTH...AS THAT SRLY FLOW HELPS TO MOISTEN UP LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE. THROUGH THE 12-18Z PERIOD...INHERITED FORECAST
ONLY HAD 50 POPS GOING IN SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SO WAS FINE
KEEPING THAT GOING...BUT DID TRIM THE WRN EDGE. THE LATEST MODELS
RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MUCH BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE CORRIDOR OF THE LLJ OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BEING
E/SE OF THE CWA...ALONG/AHEAD OF THE MAIN SFC/LOWER LEVEL COOL
FRONT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER. ALONG WITH THIS...MODELS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE 7/500
MB TROUGH AXIS...THEN SWINGING THROUGH AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...SO ADDED SOME LOW POPS BACK WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON HRS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THAT FAR WEST BEHIND THE SFC/LOWER LEVEL FRONT
WONT BE AS GOOD...SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THAT
MID LEVEL AXIS TO AMOUNT TO A LOT. ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
MUCH PRECIP THE CWA WILL ACTUALLY SEE...THE THERMAL PROFILE WITH ANY
PRECIP THAT FALLS IS ALSO STILL IN QUESTION. STILL A CONCERN WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND WHILE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A WARMER LAYER OFF THE SFC...ITS NOT OVERLY
WARM...SO WHERE THE SFC TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING...SOME QUESTION
WITH WHETHER IT WOULD FALL AS FZRA OR SLEET. MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON
SFC TEMPS...KEEPING SOME LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING...SO KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH SFC TEMPS WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THE 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING BELOW ZERO...SO HAVE PTYPE MENTION AS RA/SN. PLENTY OF
THINGS TO IRON OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS.
AS WE GET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE FORECAST
REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OVER IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST DISTURBANCE. EXPECTING TO SEE
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES.
MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WRLY COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS LOOKS TO HELP TEMPS AT LEAST RISE INTO THE 40S...WITH
LOWER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY IS THE ONLY OTHER TIME FRAME WITH ANY PRECIP CHANCES
GOING...AND THEY REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOT SHOWING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF QPF OVER THE AREA...WITH REALLY NO CHANCE FOR BETTER
MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK IN BEFORE IT GETS HERE. ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS WITH TIMING...WITH THE GFS/GEM A
TOUCH QUICKER SHOWING IT MAINLY A DAYTIME SUNDAY EVENT...WITH THE
ECMWF LINGERING THINGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...AND COOLER
AIR - WHICH LOOKS TO MAINLY AFFECT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND QUICKLY
SLIDE EAST. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
40S...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS
POINT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING PRECIP TO THE N/NE OF THE
CWA...BUT MAY SEE SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FOR TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORT
LIVED BATCH OF COOLER AIR MOVES THROUGH. TIMING OF ALL OF THIS IS
THE MAIN QUESTION. HIGHS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 40S...WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
CEILINGS SHOULD START TO TANK TONIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN OVER
TIME. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THAN
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...BUT DISCOUNTING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
SOLUTIONS DUE TO RECENT INITIATION ERRORS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
305 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
BLOWING SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
THE FLOW HAS TRANSITIONED TO MORE ZONAL IN NATURE AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS BROUGHT A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE CWA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH HAS BROUGHT A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THINK THAT FALLING SNOW
WILL BE PRETTY INSIGNIFICANT SO KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER...THE WINDS HAVE BROUGHT VIS DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES IN SOME
SPOTS THIS MORNING. ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE GRIDS
FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE A BIT
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAVE BROUGHT RISING
TEMPS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE ZERO AT THIS POINT. WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE HIGHER THAN 25 BELOW AT EXCEPT A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS.
WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...WILL
CANCEL THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY A BIT EARLY.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY...WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE ZERO AND EVEN GETTING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND 20S. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY TRICKY AS MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUDS. THINK THAT WE WILL AT LEAST SEE SOME CLEARING
OUT EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...SO KEPT TEMPS ON THE
COOL SIDE IN THE LOW TEENS FOR NOW BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CLOUDS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH THE SFC TROUGH
AXIS...BUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM
AIR INTO THE AREA. KEPT HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WARM TREND WILL
CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SFC TROUGH ON FRIDAY BUT 850MB TEMPS STAY IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO AT THE
SFC. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND MOVE OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT THINK THERE
COULD BE SOME PRECIP IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...SO KEPT 20 TO 30 POPS GOING. THERE WILL BE SOME WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVING IN AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING
PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF WHATEVER MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE THE TYPE JUST AS SNOW AND KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS. TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S AND NOT FALL OFF TOO
MUCH INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
SUNDAY...PUTTING THE AREA IN WESTERLY SFC FLOW BEFORE COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPS MAY RISE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING...DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. KEPT LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
OVER NW MN...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE
WARMER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH 1 TO 3C 850 MB TEMPS...IS
CORRECT.
AFTER SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WITH REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. 850 MB TEMPS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS DURING RECENT DAYS...WITH LESS AMPLITUDE IN THE FLOW AND
MORE PACIFIC INFLUENCE IN THE AIR MASS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST LATE MON/MON NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DOES BRING IN COLDER TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS
TRANSITORY...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND FOR WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
EXITING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE 03Z RAP INDICATES THAT
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...IFR CIGS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ONLY A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THAT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED HERE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE RISING. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
COLDER AND WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER (BUT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
TEMPS CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WITH
THE RESULTING COLD WIND CHILLS. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THE SFC HIGH WAS
STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FA WITH LIGHT SOUTH RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. BAND OF CLOUDS ALMOST INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST FA NOW AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD
TONIGHT. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS SLOWLY EXPANDING EAST
ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER UNTIL THESE REACH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FA
THERE WILL BE SOME EARLY EVENING TEMP FALL WITH RATHER WEAK WINDS.
THEREFORE WIND CHILLS WILL GET DOWN INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ONE
MORE NIGHT. WITH THE CLOUDS NEARING THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES HAVE
ELECTED TO LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE ADVISORY BUT WILL KEEP MOST OTHER
COUNTIES FROM 00Z UNTIL 12Z THU. HAD CONSIDERED SEGMENTING THE
ADVISORY BUT TIMING CLOUDS WINDS AND TEMPS IS TOUGH SO WENT WITH ONE
GROUP AND LATER SHIFTS CAN TRIM COUNTIES AS THEY SEE FIT. LOOKING AT
925MB WINDS REALLY CRANKING UP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME PRETTY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. PREVIOUS SHIFTS HAD INSERTED SOME
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THU MORNING AND WILL
ALSO ADD SOME BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE KDVL REGION. DID NOT
ADD ANY BLSN AS THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT INVERSION BUT THIS WILL
ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED. SHOULD FINALLY BE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THIS COLD STRETCH ON THU MORNING. THU HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S LOOK REALLY GOOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
FOR FRI INTO SAT LEFT THE FORECAST DRY ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME VERY LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE IN THE EAST. LOOKING AT
PORTIONS OF THE WEST OR SW FA GETTING SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS ON
FRI AND SAT SO THOSE AREAS MAY GET A LITTLE WARMER.
FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE TO EVEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT TIMES. SUNDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH 850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C AND EVEN UP TO +6C IN
THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND PERHAPS A STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUE...WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT...LIKELY
EXITING DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE 03Z RAP INDICATES THAT
AN AREA OF IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
REMAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONSIDERING UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS...IFR CIGS WOULD APPEAR TO BE ONLY A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017-023-024-032.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
427 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW THE
BEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WENT CLOSELY TO THE HRRR FOR
PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...SE
LIGHT RAIN...AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WENT NON DIURNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS EVENT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SHIELD OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWITCH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 30S IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WITH MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS PERSISTING. A DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION AFTER 00Z. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
LIGHT SNOW WHICH WOULD DROP VISIBILITIES TO IFR ALONG WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE CINCINNATI AREA LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 28 51 24 58 / 0 10 5 0 0
BEAVER OK 43 25 47 25 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 26 49 22 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BORGER TX 49 30 53 27 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 29 52 23 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
CANYON TX 50 28 52 23 59 / 0 10 5 0 0
CLARENDON TX 48 31 56 26 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
DALHART TX 51 23 48 23 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 47 28 47 21 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 54 28 53 23 59 / 0 5 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 30 50 25 56 / 0 5 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 47 29 50 24 56 / 0 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 46 32 55 27 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 45 33 56 26 60 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
SHERMAN...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS IMPACTING KCDS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO LIFR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
COUPLED WITH DECREASING WINDS UNDERNEATH PRESSURE RISES.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS TO WHETHER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AS
FAR WEST AS KLBB...SO WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. BE CAUTIOUS OF ICING POTENTIAL
TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CST WED JAN 8 2014/
SHORT TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR ZONAL FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FLOW WILL VEER NWRLY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS THIS EVENING
THEN SWING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AS ARCING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL
DISTURBANCE...WHILE INDICATING OPEN ON OBJECTIVE AND MODEL
ANALYSIS...APPEARS TO BE WEAKLY CLOSED ON WV IMAGERY THUS
SUGGESTING THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE MAY BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. WHILE THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL
NOT OFFER ANY RAINFALL...IT LIKELY WILL HELP THE MOIST ADVECTION
TO OUR EAST WHICH IS ALREADY EXTENDING TO SRN KS. THE RAP WOULD
APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATTM THOUGH
ALL NWP SOLUTIONS INDICATE A WRAP-AROUND MORPHOLOGY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE AND
AMALGAMATING THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
WOULD BRING LOW CLOUDS INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
FA OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS AFFECTING THE NWRN ZONES AS WELL. AN
ATTENDANT RISK OF PATCHY FOG WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING THEREAFTER AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM...
MODEL TRENDS ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY GRIMM FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOWEVER HAVE NOT DIMINISHED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE FA EXTENDING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MAXIMUM HEIGHT
FALLS ARE TRENDING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS SHARP TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
OVER THE AREA...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A MORE EASTWARD POSITION
ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE TOO LATE TO INTERACT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THIS FAR WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY MORNING MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
WITHIN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH STRONG
DOWNGLIDE ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
FOLLOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL ENTER THE PICTURE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS STILL MUCH SHARPER WITH THIS
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ALSO
INDICATING A SIMILAR SOLUTION. ONE THING THESE MODELS DO AGREE
UPON ARE STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG SURFACE WINDS WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTER MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HIT THE GYM AND BECOME PUMPED UP OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A
RETURN TO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR WEST TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 48 18 58 30 54 / 0 0 0 20 0
TULIA 44 20 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 40 10
PLAINVIEW 48 21 53 36 57 / 0 0 0 40 10
LEVELLAND 53 22 54 38 58 / 0 0 0 40 10
LUBBOCK 53 22 53 38 59 / 0 0 0 50 10
DENVER CITY 53 26 55 39 58 / 0 0 0 40 10
BROWNFIELD 54 24 55 39 58 / 0 0 0 40 10
CHILDRESS 44 24 48 37 56 / 0 0 0 60 40
SPUR 53 26 52 40 61 / 0 0 0 60 30
ASPERMONT 53 29 52 44 63 / 0 0 0 70 50
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1036 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SENT
AN UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING
/WHICH DID NOT END UP MATERIALIZING BUT WITH THE VERY DRY
DEWPOINTS IT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE OF A CONCERN IF THE MOISTURE HAD
BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT/. REDUCED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE THEM A LITTLE AS HRRR IS
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING IN. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS...AND LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A TAD AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS HELPED
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF GA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THICKENED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED HOLD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS AN OB IN COFFEE COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWFA...REPORTING DRIZZLE WITH THE RADAR RETURNS.
TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 40S BUT
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS. DON`T THINK THE EXTREME FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING. HOWEVER..IT STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WHERE
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP...IS IT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS AS ODDS REMAIN VERY LOW FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...IF A FEW MORE OBS START REPORTING DRIZZLE IN THE SE...WILL
CONSIDER AN ADVISORY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START RISING TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SE...LIMITING
ANY FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN IN A WEDGE SITUATION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN HOUSE 4KM WRF
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
FIGHTING THE WEDGE FOR POSITIONING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
GFS NAM WRF AND ECMWF ALL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY FOR OUR
AREA.
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF AND POSITIONING
OF THE VORT MAX. WPC NOTES THAT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THESE
MODELS...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL FROM 06Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FOR TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SPEEDING UP OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
DECREASED WITH THE SYSTEM. NOW UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN SEEMS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY IN A NOD TO ECMWF.
NOW FOR THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PAINTS A SLIGHT RISK
IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEY NOTE THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY...ONGOING PRECIP AND FROPA TIMING STILL MAKE THE
FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODELS FORECAST 35-50 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A QUICK VIEW OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 50 TO 60 KT H85 JET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SHEAR WILL
DEFINITELY BE IN PLACE THE REMAINING QUESTION IS INSTABILITY AS
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
ECMWF IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT HSLC SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITY AND THEN THE THREAT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
00Z. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
ARG
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
ATL IS ON THE CUSP OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING. DO THINK ATL
WILL GO BKN AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. EAST WINDS AOB 10 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 47 36 49 45 / 30 50 40 80
ATLANTA 46 37 49 46 / 30 50 30 80
BLAIRSVILLE 47 35 50 46 / 20 50 40 80
CARTERSVILLE 48 37 49 46 / 30 40 30 80
COLUMBUS 47 40 58 53 / 30 50 30 80
GAINESVILLE 45 36 47 44 / 30 50 50 80
MACON 48 41 59 52 / 30 50 30 70
ROME 49 36 51 47 / 20 30 30 80
PEACHTREE CITY 46 37 50 47 / 30 50 30 80
VIDALIA 53 47 62 56 / 30 50 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
835 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
UPDATED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT EARLIER AND ISSUED NOWCAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR COVERAGE OF FOG AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE/FREEZING
FOG. WHILE THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
LOCATION OF DENSE FOG...I AN SCEPTICALLY OF ITS TREND TO OVERSPREAD
THE CWA WITH DENSE FOG BY 18Z AND LINGER THESE CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAP SHOW CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD MATCH THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTER AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST AND BL CONDITIONS
MODIFY. COULD STILL SEE LINGERING FOG FURTHER EAST WHERE BL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLOWER TO RECOVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND THEN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...GOOD HEATING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 328 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH AROUND 09Z. AFTER 09Z...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
AT MCK...PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH AFTER 14Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
VFR AFTER 14Z. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED
IN THE VICINITY RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BETWEEN
10-12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
533 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATELLITE IS GIVING A GOOD CLEARING SIGNAL WITH THE ARCTIC
STRATUS DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850 WINDS ARE
CLEARLY SOUTHWEST SHUNTING THESE CLOUDS RAPIDLY EAST. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE RAP IS SUGGESTING REFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BUT THE 06Z NAM INDICATES THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP
BUT FARTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF SOLID WEST AND SOUTHWEST 800 MB
WINDS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/OR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. SIMILARLY...LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO JUST THE 20S WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FASTER 06Z NAM IS EVEN
SHUNTING THE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO ANY SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ECM WAS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH ACROSS KS WHILE THE THE GFS WAS ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE GEM WAS EAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET WAS IN
THE MIDDLE LIKE THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SNOW CHANCES HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE VS
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE WA/OR SYSTEM
SLOWS THEN MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TOMORROW A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB DURING
THE DAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN
OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WAS LOST FOR THE 06Z
UPDATE. THIS PROVIDES HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE IN A LOW PRECIP/IF ANY TYPE OF AN EVENT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A DIVING JET TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND WEAK OMEGA
IN A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD RESULT IN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER AT
TIMES TO A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND LIFT GENERALLY ABOVE THE HIGHEST RH...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
EXPANDS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 10 C IN
THE SW...ABOVE ZERO IN THE NE. GUIDANCE REBOUNDS TEMPS
NICELY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 50S SW...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN FROM THE NW...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER LL MOISTURE IS LACKING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
QUICK PACE OF SYSTEM AND TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED LOW SLGHT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES DEPENDING
ON TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK PATTERN CONTINUES TO SEE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH FAST MOVING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES PENDING TIMING OF THE WAVES. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND FORECAST IS DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS PENDING TIME OF DAY...MAY NEED TO ADD
A MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSING WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE FCST AREA BY 15Z-18Z. VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS COULD MOVE INTO NWRN NEB AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS OR/WA THIS MORNING.
SOME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR ERN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA...ALONG OR EAST
OF HIGHWAY 183.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
630 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MILDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. DRIER AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING AS LOW AS 500
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND THIS MORNING WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE
ADVECTING MODIFIED ATLANTIC AIR ONSHORE. ATLANTIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
OVER THE RESIDUAL ARCTIC AIR AT THE SURFACE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
EXPANDING DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND NOW SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS AREA OF LIFT ALONG THE
285-290K ISENTROPIC SURFACES WAS SHOWN ON THE 00Z MODELS TO MAINLY
AFFECT THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WESTWARD TODAY...BUT SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THIS LIFT IS CURRENTLY AIMED FARTHER EAST. THIS
MASSIVELY COMPLICATES SKY COVER FORECASTS SINCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CLOUDS PERSISTING ALL DAY ALONG THE COAST IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT.
NEITHER THE 06Z NAM OR 06Z GFS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CLOUDS...AND
EVEN THE 10Z RUC SHOWS INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ACCOUNT FOR ALL THE
CLOUDS OBSERVED. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE I AM FORECASTING SKIES TO
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY INLAND...AND VARIABLY CLOUDY ALONG THE
COAST WITH AT LEAST ONE PERIOD OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OLD ARCTIC HIGH IS NOW NORTHEAST OF HATTERAS AND IS MOVING OUT
TO SEA. A COASTAL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT APPRECIABLY STRENGTHEN
TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HELP TO VEER WINDS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 850 MB MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. 850 MB TEMPS CURRENTLY
AROUND +2C SHOULD WARM TO +5C BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN TO +8C LATE
TONIGHT.
ASSUMING CLOUDS BEHAVE OUR HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LOWS FOR TONIGHT ARE
TRICKY ESPECIALLY IN THE WILMINGTON AREA WHERE EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO
OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD ALLOW STOUT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO WRECK
OUR FORECAST. IF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INHIBIT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THE ONSHORE WIND SHOULD HOLD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE COAST...WITH UPPER 30S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...AND ONLY 20-30
PERCENT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT SHOOTS NORTH
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.
ONE FINAL NOTE: TODAY MARKS THE POINT IN WILMINGTON WHERE THE DAILY
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS REACH THE BOTTOM OF THEIR ANNUAL CURVES. THE
RAW NCDC DATA SHOWS AVERAGES FOR TODAY OF 55.9/35.3 AND THOSE BEGIN
TO TICK UPWARD ON JANUARY 13TH. BY THE END OF JANUARY THE NORMAL
HIGH SHOULD BE UP BY 2 DEGREES WITH A ONE DEGREE RISE IN THE NORMAL
LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS COASTAL TROUGH PUSHED INLAND AND THEN LIFTS FARTHER NORTH
AS WARM FRONT BY LATE FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...INTO THE 60S FRI AND 70S ON SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST LIFT
ON FRI WILL REMAIN FARTHER INLAND RIDING OVER SHALLOW DENSER COLD
AIR IN PLACE AND WILL SHOW BEST POPS THERE INITIALLY. BY SATURDAY
WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. STILL LOOKS LIKE STRONG LLJ
WILL DEVELOP WITH BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT THROUGH SAT AFTN. LOOKS LIKE
ALL WEATHER WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFF SHORE
SAT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD DRIER FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND MILD AIR TO FOLLOW COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT
MOVES FARTHER OFF SHORE THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP
FROM THE GULF COAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAVE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE COME MONDAY AS GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO KICK
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A WARMER MOISTER RETURN
FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. A DEEP SW FLOW SETS UP THROUGH MONDAY AS MID
TO UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AMPLIFYING THE
SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TO TRACK UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT GFS KEEPS MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES BRINGING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY TUES MORNING. THE OTHER MODELS TRACK THE DISTURBANCE UP
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT OVER LOCAL AREA BRINGING CLOUDY AND WET
WEATHER THROUGH TUES BEFORE H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTH PUSHING COLD FRONT
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO CLEAR OUT ALL WEATHER ON WED. BY THURS HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LEAVING DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER.
OVERALL EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER BEHIND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S MOST PLACES SUN AND MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP WITH DRIER FORECAST FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUES WITH TEMPS
CONTINUING TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...WELL INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AIDED
BY WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO TUES. BY WED GOING WITH DRY COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH...LEAVING ALL WEATHER EAST OF LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS
5-8KFT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR TO
PERSIST TODAY WITH SCT/BKN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST
WINDS AOB 10 KTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT AS A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH NEARS OUR COAST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
GENERATE -RA...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THEREFORE...HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR
KFLO AND KLBT OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE COASTAL SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
MVFR CIGS COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW
ADVECTS MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. VFR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF
HATTERAS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINAS TODAY. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA
COAST WILL DRIFT A BIT WESTWARD TONIGHT...CAUSING A SLOW VEERING OF
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. ANY REAL SHIFT TO
WARM SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MORE OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND
EXPECTED WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE.
WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING ARE 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OUT AT THE
FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AS HIGH AS 16 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A
FEW MORE KNOTS DURING THE DAY...PEAKING EARLY THIS EVENING AT 14-18
KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. SEAS CURRENTLY 2-3 FEET
WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING ONSHORE FETCH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH...AND SHOULD BUILD TO 3-5 FEET TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR 6-FOOT SEAS TO DEVELOP NEAR 20 MILES DISTANCE FROM SHORE...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF GEORGETOWN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR. IF
THIS THREAT BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT WE MAY NEED TO RAISE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES INLAND ON FRI AND THEN SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH AS
WARM FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY LEAVING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. OVERALL EXPECT
LIGHTER ON SHORE FLOW TO BEGIN WITH WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS 10-15 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE UP TO
15-20 KTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL FURTHER INCREASE UP TO 25
KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
INCREASING ON SHORE FETCH AND SOUTHERLY PUSH ON SATURDAY WILL RAISE
SEAS FROM TO 3-5 FT EARLY FRIDAY UP INTO SCA THRESHOLDS BY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WNA SHOWS SEAS UP TO 7 TO 9 FT BY
SAT AFTN JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. OFF SHORE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL
KNOCK NEAR SHORE SEAS DOWN RAPIDLY DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...A DECREASING OFF SHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UP FROM THE GULF BEHIND EXITING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN SW TO W FLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY DOWN LESS THAN 4 FT MOST WATERS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
SEAS IN THE 2-4 FEET RANGE MOST WATERS THROUGH EARLY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS ON SUNDAY MOVING OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT A RETURN FLOW UP TO 15 KTS THROUGH MONDAY.
INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS DRY COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD WATERS FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WATERS
MON NIGHT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW THE
BEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WENT CLOSELY TO THE HRRR FOR
PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...SE
LIGHT RAIN...AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WENT NON DIURNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS EVENT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SHIELD OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWITCH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 30S IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KDAY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE
EXPECT A MID TO HIGH DECK TO PERSIST. APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHT
SNOW COULD DEVELOP OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY
AFFECT KDAY TO KCMH/KLCK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. BUT BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME AFTER 00Z AREA WIDE AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD START AS SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO IFR AND CEILINGS TO MVFR. TEMPERATURES
MAY WARM JUST ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO RAIN BEFORE
ENDING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING IN THE CINCINNATI
AREA. ONCE SNOW ENDS VISIBILITIES SHOULD COME UP TO MVFR BUT
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BELOW 2000 FT.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
912 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AND TO ADJUST SKY/HIGH TEMP GRIDS FOR TODAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
MOVE IN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD RESPOND NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
EXPECTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
726 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 28 51 24 58 / 0 10 5 0 0
BEAVER OK 43 25 47 25 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 26 49 22 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BORGER TX 49 30 53 27 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 29 52 23 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
CANYON TX 50 28 52 23 59 / 0 10 5 0 0
CLARENDON TX 48 31 56 26 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
DALHART TX 51 23 48 23 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 47 28 47 21 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 54 28 53 23 59 / 0 5 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 30 50 25 56 / 0 5 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 47 29 50 24 56 / 0 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 46 32 55 27 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 45 33 56 26 60 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 50 28 51 24 58 / 0 10 5 0 0
BEAVER OK 43 25 47 25 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 49 26 49 22 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BORGER TX 49 30 53 27 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 54 29 52 23 57 / 0 5 5 0 0
CANYON TX 50 28 52 23 59 / 0 10 5 0 0
CLARENDON TX 48 31 56 26 59 / 0 10 10 0 0
DALHART TX 51 23 48 23 56 / 0 5 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 47 28 47 21 55 / 0 5 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 54 28 53 23 59 / 0 5 5 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 45 30 50 25 56 / 0 5 10 0 0
PAMPA TX 47 29 50 24 56 / 0 10 10 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 46 32 55 27 58 / 0 10 10 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 45 33 56 26 60 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...
SHERMAN...WHEELER.
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
935 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2014
.Synopsis...
A weak warm front may bring a few light showers to far northern
Shasta County through this afternoon. Dry conditions are expected
elsewhere with milder temperatures. Building high pressure will
bring clearing skies with daytime highs back to several degrees
above normal through Friday. Another frontal system will bring a
threat of light precipitation to most of the forecast area on
Saturday with daytime highs dropping to near normal. Rebuilding
high pressure will bring a return of drier conditions and warming
temperatures on Sunday, with daytime highs around 10 degrees above
normal through next week.
&&
.Discussion...
A weak upper level shortwave and surface front brushed through the
far northern part of the state overnight through this morning. This
has generally brought just a few hundredths of an inch of rain
inland to the northern and Coastal mountains, though locations on
the coast saw up to an inch. Redding saw a hundredth of an inch,
with a spotter in Burney reporting 0.03 in. Chester had 0.04 in of
rain, with a brief period of freezing rain. Radar shows few
returns currently, mainly north of Shasta County. Short term meso
WRF and HRRR models show shower potential trending down and have
lowered pops accordingly. Will keep just a slight chance of a
few showers will continue through the afternoon hours over the far
northern portion of Shasta County before the upper trough exits
completely.
Patchy fog and mist have developed this morning through portions
of the Valley, along with some patches of low stratus clouds. The
clouds should clear by late morning with linger have diminishing
by late afternoon. Plan to increase highs today a couple of
degrees with a somewhat warmer start and afternoon sunshine. Have
decided to go a little lower than some of the guidance, though,
due to the possibility of clouds lingering a bit longer than
expected. Forecast update will be out shortly.
Another Pacific storm system is forecast to move onshore on
Saturday bringing clouds and cooler temperatures and a threat of
light precipitation to most of the forecast area. Models have been
fairly consistent on this feature for the last several runs. The
latest 12z GFS even digs this system a little farther south than
the 06z run with increased rain and snow amounts. EK
.Extended Discussion (Monday through Thursday)
The extended models are all in agreement that a strong ridging
pattern starting on Monday will bring another period of above
normal temperatures and dry weather. Locally breezy winds are
likely to develop late Sunday into Monday night with breezy
periods again on Tuesday. Expect enhanced northerly flow in the
valley, generally along the western half of the Sacramento Valley.
In addition, Northeast to East winds will be enhanced along the
Western Sierra Slopes. For Wednesday into the weekend, the upper
level ridge axis will move overhead which will bring lighter winds
to our region. JBB
&&
.Aviation...
Areas of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys mainly in the Northern San Joaquin
Valley and isolated in the Sac Valley thru 20z as weak wx system
exits the region. Conditions expected to improve to VFR during the
afternoon. Strong ridge prevails over the region tonite and FRI
with VFR flight after possible morning local MVFR/IFR conditions
in stratus and fog in the interior valley. Light Nly wind flow at
the surface.
&&
.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1238 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING. HAVE ALREADY SENT
AN UPDATE TO REFRESH WORDING AND REMOVE FREEZING DRIZZLE WORDING
/WHICH DID NOT END UP MATERIALIZING BUT WITH THE VERY DRY
DEWPOINTS IT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE OF A CONCERN IF THE MOISTURE HAD
BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT/. REDUCED POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TO INCREASE THEM A LITTLE AS HRRR IS
INDICATING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP PUSHING IN. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS AS WELL TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS...AND LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A TAD AS WELL. UPDATED PRODUCTS
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TDP
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS MORNING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION...INSENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAS HELPED
INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF GA. REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE THICKENED CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED HOLD TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE SE. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING NORTH FROM
THE PANHANDLE. THERE IS AN OB IN COFFEE COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWFA...REPORTING DRIZZLE WITH THE RADAR RETURNS.
TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 40S BUT
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS. DON`T THINK THE EXTREME FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING. HOWEVER..IT STILL
REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WHERE
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP...IS IT
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS AS ODDS REMAIN VERY LOW FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION AND COVERAGE OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN LOW.
HOWEVER...IF A FEW MORE OBS START REPORTING DRIZZLE IN THE SE...WILL
CONSIDER AN ADVISORY.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO START RISING TOWARDS DAWN IN THE SE...LIMITING
ANY FURTHER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE MID MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...EVEN IN A WEDGE SITUATION.
NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. IN HOUSE 4KM WRF
SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
FIGHTING THE WEDGE FOR POSITIONING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
GFS NAM WRF AND ECMWF ALL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY FOR OUR
AREA.
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF AND POSITIONING
OF THE VORT MAX. WPC NOTES THAT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SPED UP
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO THESE
MODELS...MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD FALL FROM 06Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THE 00Z ECMWF FOR TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. SINCE
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SPEEDING UP OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE
DECREASED WITH THE SYSTEM. NOW UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN SEEMS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS
DIFFER GREATLY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. DECIDED TO
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY IN A NOD TO ECMWF.
NOW FOR THE MORE PRESSING ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK PAINTS A SLIGHT RISK
IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THEY NOTE THAT
UNCERTAINTIES WITH MOISTURE RETURN AND THEREFORE
INSTABILITY...ONGOING PRECIP AND FROPA TIMING STILL MAKE THE
FORECAST UNCERTAIN. MODELS FORECAST 35-50 KT 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A QUICK VIEW OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A 50 TO 60 KT H85 JET ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SHEAR WILL
DEFINITELY BE IN PLACE THE REMAINING QUESTION IS INSTABILITY AS
USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE
ECMWF IS SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERNIGHT HSLC SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBILITY AND THEN THE THREAT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
00Z. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD
CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.
ARG
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAINLY MVFR WITH PATCHY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD DROP TO MVFR
EVERYWHERE BY 00Z TONIGHT AS SCATTERED -RA MOVES IN /HANDLED THIS
WITH VCSH/. CIGS DROP THEREAFTER TO IFR AND THEN LIFR BY 10Z AND
REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS AT
VLIFR CIGS LATE FRIDAY BUT KEPT THEM LIFR FOR NOW. HAVE INTRODUCED
MVFR VSBY BUT MAY BE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THAT IF CIGS BOTTOM
OUT. OFF-AND-ON -RA THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AGAIN HANDLED THIS
MAINLY WITH VCSH. EAST WINDS 5-10KT THROUGH THE PERIOD /HIGHER AT
ATL/.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -RA COVERAGE.
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIG CATEGORY CHANGES.
MEDIUM ON VSBYS.
HIGH ON WINDS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 47 36 49 45 / 30 60 50 90
ATLANTA 46 37 49 46 / 30 50 40 100
BLAIRSVILLE 47 35 50 46 / 20 40 50 100
CARTERSVILLE 48 37 49 46 / 30 30 40 100
COLUMBUS 47 40 58 53 / 30 40 30 100
GAINESVILLE 45 36 47 44 / 30 60 50 100
MACON 48 41 59 52 / 30 60 50 70
ROME 49 36 51 47 / 20 20 40 100
PEACHTREE CITY 46 37 50 47 / 30 50 40 100
VIDALIA 53 47 62 56 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
400 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. PV HEIGHT MINIMUM IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND ALL INDICATIONS BY SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED ALOFT...WITH COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LESS OF A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH
TEMPS SLOW TO RECOVER SO FAR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT I BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE TO MATCH THE
SLOWER RATE OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. BL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE AND FURTHER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS DRY OUT THE BL. WHILE
FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AS NOSE OF H3 JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST
OF THESE PERIODS. 15-18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. I KEPT POP MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE
STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE NW AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 300MB JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH AXIS. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES IN THE LEFT EXIT OF
THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH SATURATED MID LEVELS
REMAINING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVING OVER THE AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DRY OUT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN.
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
HIGH CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARMER AND WINDY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER THEME. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH USUALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING PRECIP. OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH BELIEVE THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 400 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-10Z TIMEFRAME SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15-20KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z FRIDAY
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10KTS OR SO FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT BOTH TERMINALS IN
THE 11-15Z TIME FRAME ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW KGLD LOOKS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR IT.
OTHERWISE...ONLY AVIATION CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
BR/FG AND MVFR CIGS AT KMCK AS STRATUS DECK CURRENTLY JUST EAST
OF THE TERMINAL COULD SPREAD WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT IN
THE 06Z-13Z TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
DOWN IN THE 16Z-19Z TIMEFRAME AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME MVFR
CIGS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
222 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. PV HEIGHT MINIMUM IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND ALL INDICATIONS BY SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED ALOFT...WITH COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LESS OF A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH
TEMPS SLOW TO RECOVER SO FAR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT I BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE TO MATCH THE
SLOWER RATE OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. BL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE AND FURTHER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS DRY OUT THE BL. WHILE
FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AS NOSE OF H3 JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST
OF THESE PERIODS. 15-18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. I KEPT POP MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE
STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE NW AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
FRIDAY NIGHT A STRONG 300MB JET STREAK WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH AXIS. AS THE JET STREAK MOVES IN THE LEFT EXIT OF
THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. WITH SATURATED MID LEVELS
REMAINING BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND A 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVING OVER THE AREA...CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL DRY OUT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN.
SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT. BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS
WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
SATURDAY NIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DUE TO
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
HIGH CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WARMER AND WINDY WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER THEME. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME MINIMAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TO
PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SPLIT UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH USUALLY IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING PRECIP. OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE JET DYNAMICS WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH BELIEVE THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH BOTH FRONTAL PASSAGES. WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LIGHT FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MVFR VIS. AT THIS POINT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO NEAR 5-6SM AT KMCK COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE VALID TAF TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHER...AND THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF. FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND ADVECT NORTH TO BE NEAR KMCK. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS AT
KMCK AFTER 06Z. JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 12KT AT KMCK UNTIL CLOSER TO 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
107 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SPLIT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN US. PV HEIGHT MINIMUM IS OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO WITH
ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS AFTERNOON...FOG HAS LIFTED OVER THE CWA...HOWEVER THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE AREA OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE
SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EAST AND ALL INDICATIONS BY SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE MODIFIED ALOFT...WITH COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
THERE HAS BEEN LESS OF A REFLECTION OF THE CHANGE IN AIR MASS WITH
TEMPS SLOW TO RECOVER SO FAR. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS...BUT I BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE TO MATCH THE
SLOWER RATE OF WARMING THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CWA. BL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER OVER EASTERN LOCATIONS WHERE FOG/STRATUS HAVE
BEEN SLOWER TO ERODE AND FURTHER FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST AS GUSTY NW WINDS DRY OUT THE BL. WHILE
FORCING WILL BE INCREASING AS NOSE OF H3 JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE THROUGH MOST
OF THESE PERIODS. 15-18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE AND
WOULD SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. I KEPT POP MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE
STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE NW AND OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS LIGHT SNOW MIXING
WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. DUE TO THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LIGHT FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MVFR VIS. AT THIS POINT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO NEAR 5-6SM AT KMCK COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE VALID TAF TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHER...AND THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF. FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND ADVECT NORTH TO BE NEAR KMCK. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS AT
KMCK AFTER 06Z. JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 12KT AT KMCK UNTIL CLOSER TO 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
UPDATED FORECAST A LITTLE BIT EARLIER AND ISSUED NOWCAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR COVERAGE OF FOG AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF DENSE/FREEZING
FOG. WHILE THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT
LOCATION OF DENSE FOG...I AN SCEPTICALLY OF ITS TREND TO OVERSPREAD
THE CWA WITH DENSE FOG BY 18Z AND LINGER THESE CONDITIONS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAP SHOW CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WHICH WOULD MATCH THE EXPECTED CHANGES IN THE SURFACE PATTER AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH IN COLORADO SHIFTS EAST AND BL CONDITIONS
MODIFY. COULD STILL SEE LINGERING FOG FURTHER EAST WHERE BL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE SUPPORTED INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND TEMPS WILL BE
SLOWER TO RECOVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE SURFACE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THIS SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE TROUGH. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL TURN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
AND THEN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...GOOD HEATING AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 50S DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY WILL BRING LOW
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST THU JAN 9 2014
LIGHT FOG IS STILL BEING REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MVFR VIS. AT THIS POINT
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK...THOUGH BRIEF DROPS TO NEAR 5-6SM AT KMCK COULD NOT BE RULED
OUT NEAR THE VALID TAF TIME. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT FOR NOW SINCE
CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS IS HIGHER...AND THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
BE VERY BRIEF. FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND ADVECT NORTH TO BE NEAR KMCK. AT THIS TIME VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL...THOUGH WE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 3-5SM VIS AT
KMCK AFTER 06Z. JUST NOT A HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE AT THE TERMINAL TO
INCLUDE IN THIS UPDATE. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AFTER 06Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW 12KT AT KMCK UNTIL CLOSER TO 12-14Z BASED ON CURRENT
GUIDANCE.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
359 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM... AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AFTERNOON RADAR COMPOSITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SNOW
SHOWER PATTERN COMING TOGETHER WITH SOME GUSTO OVER NORTHERN INDIANA
AND WESTERN OHIO. THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC AND IS HELPING SHAPE UP THE WARM FRONT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE SURFACE AND ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
THE NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE INDUCED DCVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING IN
A LOW STABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RESULTING IN THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION RESPONSE. THE TEXTURE OF THE
RADAR COMPOSITE EVEN SUGGESTS WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ABOVE THE
FRONTAL SURFACE, ROUGHLY IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER JUDGING FROM MODEL
THETA-E PROFILES. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM AND RAP HAVE A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AS THE WAVE SLIDES
JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO BORDER. THEY SHOW THE MOST INTENSE VERTICAL
MOTION OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HOWELL TO
PORT HURON WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND MID EVENING. THIS
WILL CONSIST OF A GOOD COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MID LEVEL SHEARING DEFORMATION FUELED BY SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR 3
G/KG. EXPECT THE RESULT TO BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH IMBEDDED
HEAVIER BURSTS ADDING UP TO ABOUT AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION AS FAR
NORTH AS INTERSTATE 69. BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE LESS
TOWARD THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB AND THEN WILL DIMINISH OVER
THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TRAILING THE WAVE WILL THEN SET THE
STAGE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TOWARD SUNRISE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBSIDENCE INDUCED MID LEVEL DRYING TAKING
PLACE TOWARD 12Z WHICH WILL ELIMINATE ICE CRYSTAL NUCLEATION. THAT
WILL LEAVE A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE FORCED BY WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER/FRONTAL
SLOPE. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE AND GROUND
SURFACES ARE VERY COLD, UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE, DURATION, AND
INTENSITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS
POINT. OTHERWISE, THE STRONG NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WILL
HAVE MINS OCCURRING DURING EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT, BUT ONLY INTO THE LOWER AND MID 20S BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERNS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD IS THE START TIME AND TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BEFORE
WARMER AIR WORKS UP INTO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
DOWNTURN IN THE PRECIP FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WORKS IN WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. 120+ KNOT JET GETS GOING WITH THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS JET THEN STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM. AS THE
LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...THIS
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO SE MI. AS WITH THE CASE OF
TRANSITIONING PRECIP TYPE THE BIGGEST CAVEAT WILL BE HOW LONG
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN LINGERS BEFORE THE WARMER AIR WORKS IN
CHANGING PRECIP TO ALL RAIN. THIS TRANSITION DOES APPEAR TO BE OF
SHORTER DURATION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND PUSHES IN THE
WARMER AIR. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF DRIZZLE WITH THE ONSET OF
PRECIP BEFORE MID LEVELS SATURATE. BETTER FORCING AND PRECIP
CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. POPS INCREASE FROM 00Z TO 12Z ON SATURDAY WHICH
COINCIDES WITH FAVORED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
PWAT VALUES REMAINED NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH...WHICH IS GOOD FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH A LITTLE FASTER...PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED A TINY BIT.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE HEAVIER PRECIP. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE RIDGING MOVES BACK IN AND
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPED A
LITTLE BIT TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SNOW COVER AND THE FASTER
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. WAA
WORKS IN AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
LATE FRIDAY BEFORE CAA TAKES OVER WITH THE EXITING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND STEADY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN ONCE AGAIN.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP SUNDAY MOSTLY
DRY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST MODELS REGARDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE LOOKS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT TUESDAY COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPS
LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ABOVE NORMAL /FORECASTED HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S/ ON MONDAY AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DROPPING TO THE MID 20S BY THURSDAY. LOWS WILL
ALSO START OFF ABOVE NORMAL /LOW 30S/ FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND STEADILY
DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS /BELOW NORMAL/ BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS WILL THEN MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OVER LAKE HURON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THROUGH LAKE
MICHIGAN. SUSTAINED SPEEDS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 28 KNOTS
OVER MUCH OF THE LAKE...HOWEVER WARMER AIR FLOWING OVER THE LAKE
SURFACE WILL KEEP STABILITY HIGH AND LIMIT WIND GUSTS TO BELOW GALE
FORCE. COLDER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH A
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE LAKE
SURFACE MAY ALLOW GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF LAKE HURON. A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY AND
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BRIEFLY BACK OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1258 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014/
//DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN OF SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER SE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
ORGANIZING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICK IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION BEFORE CEILING LOWERS TO IFR TOWARD SUNRISE AS WELL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE SOLID FROM PTK SOUTHWARD DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT CATCHES UP TO
ALL LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
HIGHER TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE DTW TO PTK CORRIDOR CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS MBS JUST WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THERE.
FOR DTW... SNOW SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM OHIO AND INDIANA WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL NEAR 22Z AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BURST OF LARGE BUT DRY FLAKES CAPABLE
OF IFR RESTRICTION AND A QUICK HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR ANY GREATER
SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOWARD SUNRISE AND LAST THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN
TEMPERATURE IS ON SCHEDULE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ462...FROM 7 AM
SATURDAY TO 7 PM SATURDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM....SS/RK/HLO
MARINE.......SS/HLO
AVIATION.....BT
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1106 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER THE NWRN AREAS
FROM LIFT FROM APPROACHING WEAK S/WV IN THE NW DELTA. ALSO IN THIS
REGION A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA. SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS OCCURRING JUST ALONG/SLIGHTLY IN
THE FAR NW DELTA IN CHICOT COUNTY. ADDED CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IN FAR NRN ASHLEY/CHICOT/BOLIVAR COUNTIES UNTIL 20Z. THIS
REGION SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BE JUST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SOME DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS AIDING IN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA REGION. GLOBAL/HI-RES
MODELS...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND HWRF...KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN
THE DELTA TODAY. OVERALL...CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD FOR TODAY. HAD TO
INCREASE QPF IN THE NW SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING FAIRLY
QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD BUILDING SURFACE HIGH. SOME OF
THE CLOUDS WERE CLEARING SOMEWHAT ALONG/SE OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO
COLUMBUS. AREAS IN THE E SHOULD BE MODERATING SLIGHTLY WHILE WARMER
TEMPS IN THE W/SW ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
WENT CLOSE TO MAV HIGHS FOR TODAY...SLIGHTLY LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
NW DUE TO RAIN/CLOUDS AND INCREASING HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL/SW DUE TO
SOME DECREASING CLOUDS. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING DESPITE A SCT-BKN CLOUD DECK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE DELTA WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
AFFECTING MOSTLY KGLH. -RA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THIS REGION TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED MVFR CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /28/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL
BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE DELTA FOR
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FOLLOWED BY TEMPS AND POPS.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WESTWARD. THIS WAS
SEPARATING THE COOLER AIR ACROSS THE OZARKS WITH THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION AND THE MORE MODERATE AIR WITH SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
ADVECTION HAVE IMPEDED THE COOLING ACROSS THE DELTA REGION THIS
MORNING...AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY FROM 35 TO AROUND
40 DEGREES. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT THE LOCAL WRF...HRR AND NATIONAL WRF MODELS KEEP
THE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELTA REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. WENT CLOSE TO
GMOS GUIDANCE. ON POPS ADJUSTED THE BETTER NAM POPS. THE GMOS AND MAV
POPS WERE TOO FAR SOUTHEAST IN COMPARISON TO LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF
RUNS. FOR TONIGHT LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 30S EAST HALF TO THE
MIDDLE 40S SOUTHWEST. WENT CLOSER TO THE MILDER NAM GUIDANCE WITH THE
CLOUD COVER. FOR POPS LOCAL AND NATIONAL WRF KEEPS THE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE DELTA REGION...BUT MODEL POPS LOOK TO HAVE TOO MUCH POP COVERAGE.
SO OPTED TO KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST POPS FOR MAINLY THE DELTA
REGION.
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THINGS START TO PICK UP SOME FROM THE
WEST. A SHARP SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE PIVOTS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS WAS THE FASTEST WITH THE TRACK. OPTED TO GO
WITH THE SLOWER TRACK OF THE OTHER MODELS. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MODERATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.3 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR WEST DURING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER. INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. SPC
HAS A 5 PERCENT RISK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DUE TO BETTER INSTABILITY
AND SOME SHEAR. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WARRANTS ANY MENTIONING IN THE
HWO. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAINS WILL START TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST AS
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL BE ENDING THE EMBEDDED
THUNDER FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO
MAV GUIDANCE. THIS WILL BRING SOME ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS THE
REGION. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTHWEST
TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WENT CLOSE TO THE NAM GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. /17/
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM ARE
SLOWER WITH THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY THAN THE GFS...SO HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55 DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.. EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR BUILD OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A NICE DAY IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY
AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S.
THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
PRETTY CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND ALSO
DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS
DONE A MUCH BETTER JOB WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS THIS
WINTER SO FAR...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS IT AND BUMP POPS UP ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
REMAIN ALL RAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE ENDING MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...USHERING
IN COLDER AIR.
THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
THIS WOULD INDICATE COOLER TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED...SO WILL BUMP TEMPS
DOWN A BIT BELOW MEX GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS LOOK
MAINLY DRY/COOL AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 54 39 61 55 / 12 11 24 100
MERIDIAN 56 39 60 57 / 6 10 19 100
VICKSBURG 55 41 64 56 / 33 19 28 100
HATTIESBURG 60 38 62 57 / 6 10 18 100
NATCHEZ 56 47 64 56 / 13 12 28 100
GREENVILLE 42 40 60 50 / 82 26 30 100
GREENWOOD 46 41 62 55 / 49 23 28 100
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/28/17/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
328 PM MST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS WIND.
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER OUR MTNS SO FAR...AND WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
TURNING NW WE ARE SEEING SOME ECHOES FORM SE OF BILLINGS...AS WAS
EXPECTED. STRONGEST ASCENT IS PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTH SO PCPN
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT INTO THE EVENING...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE BIG HORNS. FISHER CK SNOTEL ABOVE COOKE
CITY PICKED UP 6 INCHES OF SNOW EARLIER TODAY.
ATTENTION TURNS QUICKLY TO INCREASING PACIFIC JET AND ENERGY ALONG
THE BC COAST. LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD COMMENCE BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR NEXT LIVINGSTON...BIG TIMBER...BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS
WIND EVENT WILL MATERIALIZE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS WILL BE A
MORE DYNAMIC EVENT WITH FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW...SO SHOULD BE A
SOLID WIND ADVISORY WITH GUSTS OF 60-65 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. CORE OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW...60 KTS PER THE GFS AND
70 KTS PER THE NAM...WILL PUSH INTO THE CRAZY MTN/WHEATLAND COUNTY
AREA 12-18Z TOMORROW. LATEST RAP IS CONSISTENT WITH THESE SPEEDS
AT 14Z TOMORROW. SUBSIDENCE FROM PAC SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE
MECHANISM TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO SFC...SO FEEL WE SHOULD SEE
GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH FROM MELVILLE TO HARLOWTON TO A LITTLE SOUTH
OF JUDITH GAP DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...THOUGH SFC AND MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL NOT BE PERFECTLY LINKED UP. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND
WARNING TO COVER THESE AREAS. SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MODEST DECREASE
IN THE WIND BY FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND PRESSURE RISES AND AS NEXT GAP
EVENT GETS WARMED UP. FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...INCREASED MIXING
WITH UP TO 40-45 KTS OF 850MB FLOW SHOULD YIELD STRONG GUSTS AS
FAR EAST AS BILLINGS BY LATE MORNING...WHERE SFC GUSTS WILL REACH
40-50 MPH. AN OVERALL WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS BEGINS EARLY SATURDAY AND WILL KEEP
HIGH WIND WATCHES INTACT ACROSS OUR WEST FROM SAT-MON. WITH 700MB
WINDS TO 80 KTS AND A TIGHTER SFC GRADIENT THERE SHOULD BE 70+
MPH GUSTS AT THE GAP LOCATIONS...WITH A BIT LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
OUR WEST. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FIND A TIME WHEN MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY COULD BE A THREAT...AND THINK SATURDAY IS A RISK. NAM MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT SHOWS A REGION OF NEAR 90 KT OF MTN TOP WIND
ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FRONT BY 18Z SATURDAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER AND
LATER WITH THE WIND POTENTIAL...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE
LEE OF THE MTNS SOMETIME IN THE MIDDAY TO EVENING TIME PERIOD ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE PREFRONTAL HOURS BEING MOST FAVORED FOR THIS
TO OCCUR. COLD ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZING WILL REDUCE THE MTN
WAVE THREAT LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS TO COVER THIS. NO
DOUBT THE WINDS WILL BE SCREAMING ON THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE RED
LODGE...SO OUTDOOR RECREATIONISTS TAKE NOTE.
OTHERWISE...MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES LATE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT BEING THE EXPECTED TIME PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.
WILL KEEP POPS HIGH AND SNOW AMOUNTS SPREAD OVER THE NEXT FEW
PERIODS. ACCUMS SHOULD ADD UP TO EXCEED A FOOT OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WARMEST AIRMASS
WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS TO AROUND
+10C WITHIN THERMAL SFC TROF. WIND SHIFT MAY OCCUR TOO LATE FOR
BILLINGS TO MAXIMIZE ITS TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...PER
USUAL INFLUENCE FROM THE CLARKS FORK/SW WINDS...BUT IF WINDS DO
SHIFT WESTERLY BEFORE 00Z WE COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE 50S. SNOW
COVER WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR. AS IT STANDS...FEEL SOME AREAS WILL
SEE 50+ DEGREE HIGHS.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...PRODUCING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
PICKING UP ON SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD WILL PUSH EAST DURING
THE DAY AND SURFACE HIGH WILL SKIM ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE
WINDY ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE HELPING
TO PUSH 45 TO 50 KTS OF 850 HPA AND 700 HPA WIND TOWARD THE
SURFACE.
A STRONG PACIFIC JET STREAK MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY...ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY STRONG 850 AND 700 HPA
WINDS. MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH 60 TO 90 KNOTS OF WIND
CONCENTRATED AROUND 850MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MAGNITUDE OF WIND...EXPECT A STRONG MIXED
WIND EVENT FOR LIVINGSTON...BIG TIMBER AND UP TO HARLOWTON. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE STRONG ALL ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL WIND HIGHLIGHTS THAT MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL THERE. HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
MODELS WANT TO KEEP PLENTY OF WIND AROUND ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH
A MORE MODEST 50 KTS OR SO AT 850 MB. THUS THE WINDY PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS MONDAY
MAY BE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES.
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW CONTINUES. HOWEVER...THE MOIST FLOW MAY START TO
SUBSIDE BY MIDWEEK...ENDING THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THERE.
CHURCH
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT NEAR KLVM AND IN THE NEARBY
FOOTHILLS...WITH GUSTS 50 TO 55 KTS POSSIBLE BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. CHURCH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 029/042 030/048 034/043 034/046 032/044 029/044 027/038
12/J 11/N 21/N 02/W 31/N 11/N 12/W
LVM 031/040 033/049 032/040 034/043 031/043 029/042 030/034
23/W 22/W 32/W 22/W 21/N 11/N 22/W
HDN 018/040 021/047 027/040 028/042 028/039 024/041 020/033
32/W 12/J 22/W 13/W 31/N 11/N 12/J
MLS 019/036 020/040 028/035 025/038 023/036 022/038 019/032
22/J 12/W 32/J 14/J 32/J 11/N 12/J
4BQ 020/038 020/045 029/036 026/041 026/038 022/042 021/032
53/J 11/B 32/J 14/J 32/J 11/N 11/N
BHK 021/037 020/040 029/032 021/038 023/035 018/039 019/031
22/J 11/B 32/J 13/J 22/J 11/N 11/N
SHR 017/041 021/048 027/038 023/041 025/042 021/044 020/034
52/W 00/N 23/W 12/J 31/N 11/U 12/J
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 28-63.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 28-41-63-65-66.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
MST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 41-65-66.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 56.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
310 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND SNOW
COVER HAS IMPACTED TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH THE STRATUS SLOW TO
ERODE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES...WHILE A NEW AREA OF STRATUS IS
ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH KS EARLY THIS AFTN. TEMPS HAVE MANAGED
TO REACH THE MID 20S TO THE MID 30S SO FAR WITH A FEW MORE HOURS
OF INSOLATION LEFT.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
EMERGING ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN STEADY ENOUGH
TO LIMIT DENSE FOG POTENTIAL BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE RAP AND
HRRR INDICATE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE FOG. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AS INDICATED ON THE
295K SURFACE...PRIMARILY ORIENTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND THE
LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD
MORNING AND THIS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. ALSO ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...HAVE INTRODUCED LOW POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THIS AREA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
RAP INITIALLY INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN
SATURATE TO MORE OF A IP/SN SOUNDING. HAVE MENTIONED ZL/IP FOR NOW
WITH PCPN TYPE TRANSITIONING TO R/S DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
BE AROUND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE NAM REMAINING THE
DRIEST AMONGST THE MODELS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL CWA AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE TRANSLATING EASTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN AND
A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/LIFT MOVE ACROSS FM LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...MORE ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS SPC
WRF...GFS...ECMWF AND EVEN THE GEM INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED PCPN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A
QUICK SHOT OF SNOW INITIALLY THEN DRY OUT/WARM BEHIND THE TROUGH
AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SIMPLE RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR PCPN TYPE ATTM.
WITH A WARMING TEMP PROFILE...GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF ACCUMULATION BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MINOR
AMOUNTS...GENERALLY UNDER ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
DRYING OUT/CLOUDS DECREASING IN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WITH THIS
RIDGE...AND A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
HELP BRING WARMER AIR TO THE PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. WENT A BIT ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS...SEE NO REASON WHY WE CANNOT REACH THE UPPER 40S TO EVEN NEAR
50.
BY SUNDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS
HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT REINTRODUCE
POPS TO THE FORECAST AS THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES DURING
THE DAY AND NIGHT ON SUNDAY.
THE WAVE DEEPENS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY MONDAY...BRINGING COOLER 850
MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA. PERHAPS MONDAY MIGHT NEED TO
BE A TAD COOLER THAN FORECAST BUT STILL CURRENTLY EXPECTING MID 40S
FOR HIGHS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...NUMEROUS WAVES CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTH AND SKIRT ALONG THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THEM SUGGEST
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION OR A LONG LASTING COLD SPELL.
IN FACT...RIDGING REBOUNDS ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR 50. TOWARDS THURSDAY...YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE/CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS TIMING OF STRATUS AND HOW
LOW CIGS MAY DROP. CURRENTLY THE STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP ACROSS
KGRI BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL ATTM. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING/CIGS
LOWERING AFTER DARK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR TONIGHT AND VSBYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR IN BR. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
SATELLITE IS GIVING A GOOD CLEARING SIGNAL WITH THE ARCTIC
STRATUS DRAPED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. H850 WINDS ARE
CLEARLY SOUTHWEST SHUNTING THESE CLOUDS RAPIDLY EAST. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE RAP IS SUGGESTING REFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TONIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BUT THE 06Z NAM INDICATES THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOP
BUT FARTHER EAST AS A RESULT OF SOLID WEST AND SOUTHWEST 800 MB
WINDS. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING AND
INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER WA/OR.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S AND THE FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE WARM SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP. SIMILARLY...LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO JUST THE 20S WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND WEST WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE WOBBLING THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NORTH
AND SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FASTER 06Z NAM IS EVEN
SHUNTING THE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO ANY SNOW CHANCES REMAIN SLIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE ECM WAS THE
FARTHEST SOUTH ACROSS KS WHILE THE THE GFS WAS ACROSS NRN NEB.
THE GEM WAS EAST BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET WAS IN
THE MIDDLE LIKE THE 00Z NAM WHICH SHOWED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
LINCOLN AND CUSTER COUNTIES BY NOON FRIDAY.
THE SNOW CHANCES HINGE ON THE TIMING OF THE RETURN MOISTURE VS
THE ARRIVAL OF THE WA/OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. IF THE WA/OR SYSTEM
SLOWS THEN MOISTURE WOULD HAVE TIME TO RECOVER ACROSS THE FCST
AREA AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
TOMORROW A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS KS/NEB DURING
THE DAY...THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN
OUTLIER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SW INTO CENTRAL NEB
DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WAS LOST FOR THE 06Z
UPDATE. THIS PROVIDES HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO REST OF THE MODEL
SUITE IN A LOW PRECIP/IF ANY TYPE OF AN EVENT. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A DIVING JET TO THE WEST.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION AND WEAK OMEGA
IN A SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD RESULT IN
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SW INTO CENTRAL NEB. TEMPS WARM INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A CHANGE OVER AT
TIMES TO A MIX OR ALL LIQUID. SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE...AND LIFT GENERALLY ABOVE THE HIGHEST RH...THUS NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF FOR THE CWA.
AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WARM
FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA...AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
EXPANDS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 10 C IN
THE SW...ABOVE ZERO IN THE NE. GUIDANCE REBOUNDS TEMPS
NICELY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 50S SW...AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE NEXT WEAK CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN FROM THE NW...AND EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. DECENT MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...HOWEVER LL MOISTURE IS LACKING PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
QUICK PACE OF SYSTEM AND TOP DOWN SATURATION WILL LIMIT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. CONTINUED LOW SLGHT CHC POPS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY ONLY BE FLURRIES/SPRINKLES DEPENDING
ON TEMPS.
NEXT WEEK PATTERN CONTINUES TO SEE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST...WITH FAST MOVING NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BE A REGULAR OCCURRENCE...WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES PENDING TIMING OF THE WAVES. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AND FORECAST IS DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS PENDING TIME OF DAY...MAY NEED TO ADD
A MENTION OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WITH THE PASSING WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...BUT DRY AIR FORECASTED IN THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION AS
VIRGA WITH LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO
KEEP CLOUD BASES FAIRLY HIGH AROUND 9000 FT AGL...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING SOME TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
1254 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING RAIN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HRRR HAS BEEN HANDLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE LIGHT SNOW THE
BEST THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WENT CLOSELY TO THE HRRR FOR
PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
PRIMARILY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...SE
LIGHT RAIN...AND THEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN BETWEEN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. WENT NON DIURNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FA WITH
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW EXPECTED. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT DO OCCUR WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THURSDAY NIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME RESIDUAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING
HOURS.
A MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
MODELS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION HOWEVER MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
BRINGING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND RAIN WILL
TRANSITION BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW MAY DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST.
THIS EVENT WOULD AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO
THE SHIELD OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL LOW.
MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SWITCH TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 30S IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPING ACRS THE TAFS SITES LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES IN RESPONSE
TO THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT. INITIALLY PRECIP EXPECTED TO START OUT
AS SNOW BUT THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHD OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACRS THE NRN TAF SITES THIS
EVENING DURG THE TRANSITION UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM UP ABOVE FREEZING.
HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME SINCE IT SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN DURATION AND AMOUNT.
BEST LIFT TO OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. IFR VSBYS WILL BE LKLY WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED.
BEST LIFT SHIFTS EAST AROUND 06Z...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WL LKLY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATING A GOOD DEAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE
TONIGHT. IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACRS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HAVE LIMITED IFR CIGS TO KDAY AND
KILN BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT THIS CHANCE ACRS ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO BE SLOW TO IMPROVE FRIDAY WITH A GENERAL
LULL IN PRECIP BEING IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1248 PM EST THU JAN 9 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES MODERATING INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COLD
FRONT WITH RAIN CROSSES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
WORKING ON THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AND HAVE REVAMPED THE POP GRIDS
FOR TIMING USING THE SREF AND LOCAL HRRR AND WRF MODELS. STILL
WORKING ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AS OVER-RUNNING WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED
SFC FRONT PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH EAST. EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK PUSHING UP ACROSS EASTERN TN AND WV THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE THIS PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRACKS NORTH AND ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WAA ALOFT...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT. HAVE BUMPED POPS AND EXTENDED MENTION OF ISOLD SHOWERS PAST
12 FRIDAY KEEPING QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LITTLE TO NO
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AS INHERITED FORECAST THAT STRADDLES THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKING REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FORECAST. DID SPEED UP FRONT ON SATURDAY
A BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS. A FEW SPITS OR SPATS OF -FRZ RA
POSSIBLE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH DEPARTING MID LEVEL SYS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH THOUGH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE MILD ON FRIDAY NIGHT AMID STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW. AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT CROSSES 12-18Z ON SATURDAY. QPF AMOUNTS HALF AN INCH TO
ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
HILLTOPS AND RIDGES. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO REACH INTO MID TO UPPER
50S. DEEP MOISTURE QUICK PULLS OUT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA BECOMING DRY SLOTTED UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES SATURDAY
NIGHT. KEPT POPS GOING FOR THIS REASON AND INSERTED SOME DZ
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH EXTENSIVE DRYING ALOFT AMID CLOUT TOPS/OMEGA
ONLY REACHING INTO -4 TO -6C RANGE. AS TEMPS COOL...ALLOWED FOR
SOME FRZ DZ ON THE RIDGES IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. STILL
HAVE SOME SHRA/SHSN IN AS WELL BUT THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A
MISTY/DZ SCENARIO. THE LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT ON
SUNDAY WITH WAA QUICKLY RETURNING. ANY DZ ENDS IN THE MORNING.
WENT A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY GIVING SOME NOD TO THE LOW
STRATUS FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BENEATH THE INVERSION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF CWA BY BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT. UPPER TROUGH PASSES
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A TRANSITION TO NW FLOW AND MORE UPSLOPE TYPE
PRECIP SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH A 500MB TROUGH
LATE MONDAY PER GFS OR TUESDAY PER ECMWF. NOT ONLY TIMING
DIFFERENCES...BUT GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING NORTH...WHILE ECMWF IS MORE
OF A SOUTHERN SOLUTION. WITH UNCERTAINTY IN MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO
WPC FROM MONDAY ON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH A DRY DAY
MONDAY AND THEN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALSO STAYED
CLOSE TO WPC FOR TEMPS...IN GENERAL GOING A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL TRAVERSE
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BRINGING GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT
ON MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MET GUIDANCE BRINGS THESE
CEILINGS DOWN BELOW 2KFT. WILL COMPLY WITH THIS DATA SET AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...AND KEEP CEILINGS BETWEEN 2KFT AND 3KFT
DURING THE PRECIPITATION.
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AFTER 03Z FRIDAY.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB/CKB/EKN. SNOW IS ALSO BRIEFLY POSSIBLE
AT THE ONSET.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TURNING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH UNTIL 06Z. MEDIUM AFTER 06Z.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND ONSET OF PRECIP MAY VARY. PRECIP
TYPE MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN COULD DEVELOP SATURDAY IN STRONG FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT TEMPORARILY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON... BUT OTHERWISE WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL ALSO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA /ESPECIALLY EAST/
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED RAIN EXPLICITLY IN
THE KOKC AND KOUN TAFS... BUT OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS WHERE CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT AS THE REDUCED
VSBY/CIGS IN THE FOG WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION ISSUES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES THROUGH 09/18Z.
ADJUSTED TEMPS...AND WX.
DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. OVERALL... SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN
OBSERVED... BUT POCKETS OF DENSE FG/FZFG REMAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES... HOWEVER... MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SLOWLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. WITH AT/NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
NRN/NWRN OK... WHERE FREEZING FOG REMAINS A HAZARD. NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING... HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED PER OKDPS TRAFFIC MONITOR... BUT A FEW
SLICK SPOTS LIKELY REMAIN. THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON... AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TREND AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THIS
AFTN. THEREFORE... EXTENDED THE DENSE FG AND FZFG ADVISORIES
THROUGH 18Z.
TRENDED BACK HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING/AFTN... GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FORECAST WAS RUNNING A TAD WARM COMPARED TO OBS. STILL
EXPECT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIFR FOG AND CIGS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
VISBYS FIRST COMING UP AROUND 14-15Z AND THEN CIGS IMPROVING A BIT
AROUND 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER
00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND BRIEF LIFR WILL RETURN DUE TO LOW
CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
END OF...OR JUST OUTSIDE OF...THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY NEAR
OKC/OUN AND PERHAPS LAW/SPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL HEADLINES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE NW AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. SEVERAL SITES REPORTING DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW WEST OF
I35...ALONG WITH SOME EARLIER OHP REPORTS...SO FGYS IN GOOD SHAPE
TOO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST...VERY LITTLE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV OVER THE WA/OR
BORDER...NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...COMBINED LIFT FROM STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS SHOULD MOST
DEFINITELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MORE HEAVY DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND SE OK. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG SWSLY LLJ IS ANTICIPATED AND ASSOCIATED WAA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW SUPPORT MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE
SAME AREA. THEREFORE...ISO THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AND
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE/E OK WITHIN
BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD.
EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SW/W FLOW PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
AGAIN...ONLY EXPECT BRIEF MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS WITH THIS FRONT
WITH TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OUT WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 38 56 32 / 10 70 50 0
HOBART OK 41 36 56 29 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 42 62 32 / 10 50 50 0
GAGE OK 41 32 52 26 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 33 51 28 / 10 40 40 0
DURANT OK 43 42 62 37 / 20 90 90 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021-022-024.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ023-027-033>036.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
EXTENDED DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG ADVISORIES THROUGH 09/18Z.
ADJUSTED TEMPS...AND WX.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. OVERALL... SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES HAS BEEN
OBSERVED... BUT POCKETS OF DENSE FG/FZFG REMAIN. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE UNDER OVERCAST SKIES... HOWEVER... MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SLOWLY CLIMBED ABOVE FREEZING. WITH AT/NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS
NRN/NWRN OK... WHERE FREEZING FOG REMAINS A HAZARD. NUMEROUS
ACCIDENTS WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS MORNING... HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED PER OKDPS TRAFFIC MONITOR... BUT A FEW
SLICK SPOTS LIKELY REMAIN. THE HRRR AND RUC SHOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON... AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT TREND AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THIS
AFTN. THEREFORE... EXTENDED THE DENSE FG AND FZFG ADVISORIES
THROUGH 18Z.
TRENDED BACK HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING/AFTN... GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...FORECAST WAS RUNNING A TAD WARM COMPARED TO OBS. STILL
EXPECT AFTN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
MAINLY IFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIFR FOG AND CIGS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER MOST
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
VISBYS FIRST COMING UP AROUND 14-15Z AND THEN CIGS IMPROVING A BIT
AROUND 18-20Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AFTER
00Z FROM THE SOUTH AND BRIEF LIFR WILL RETURN DUE TO LOW
CIGS/FOG/DRIZZLE. SOME ISOLATED TS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
END OF...OR JUST OUTSIDE OF...THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY NEAR
OKC/OUN AND PERHAPS LAW/SPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY FOR NOW GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL HEADLINES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
TEMPS HOVER AROUND FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE NW AS A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST. SEVERAL SITES REPORTING DENSE FOG RIGHT NOW WEST OF
I35...ALONG WITH SOME EARLIER OHP REPORTS...SO FGYS IN GOOD SHAPE
TOO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST...VERY LITTLE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRATUS SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED A BIT FOR FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT EXPECTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV OVER THE WA/OR
BORDER...NOT DIGGING AS FAR SOUTH AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
HOWEVER...COMBINED LIFT FROM STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A
SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF WEST TEXAS SHOULD MOST
DEFINITELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MORE HEAVY DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT RAIN LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND SE OK. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG SWSLY LLJ IS ANTICIPATED AND ASSOCIATED WAA
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW SUPPORT MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE
SAME AREA. THEREFORE...ISO THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AND
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE/E OK WITHIN
BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAPID CLEARING AND A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERHEAD.
EVEN WARMER TEMPS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE LOW TO MID
LEVEL SW/W FLOW PRESENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
AGAIN...ONLY EXPECT BRIEF MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS WITH THIS FRONT
WITH TEMPS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...WITH TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OUT WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 41 38 56 32 / 10 70 50 0
HOBART OK 41 36 56 29 / 0 20 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 44 42 62 32 / 10 50 50 0
GAGE OK 41 32 52 26 / 0 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 37 33 51 28 / 10 40 40 0
DURANT OK 43 42 62 37 / 20 90 90 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ004>007-
009>012-014>018-021-022-024.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ023-027-033>036.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
1115 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TAF SITES FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT BR/FG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE WAS SENT TO ALLOW THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
AND TO ADJUST SKY/HIGH TEMP GRIDS FOR TODAY. SUNSHINE SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO
MOVE IN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
PANHANDLES SHOULD RESPOND NICELY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S
EXPECTED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CORRIDOR OF FORECAST
AREA. FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED IN THIS AREA.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
AVIATION...
MVFR BR EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAMA AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS PERSIST. BY 16Z...SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...CAUSING ANY REMAINING BR TO DISSIPATE. SURFACE
WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WITH ONLY HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TREND TO WESTERLY. FOLLOWING DISSIPATION OF MORNING
BR...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
DISCUSSION...
FREEZING FOG SLOW TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING...BUT STARTING TO SEE
EVIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG OFF THE CAPROCK OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z TODAY.
LATEST HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FREEZING FOG SPREADING WEST
TO ROUGHLY A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE BY 12Z TODAY...AND
THEN LIFTING THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BY 16Z TO 17Z TODAY. WILL KEEP
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE AND EXPIRE THE ADVISORY AT 15Z TODAY.
THE FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
BY 18Z TO 21Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH DRY AND USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE GRIDS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BY LATE SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS AND DRY THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS 20 FOOT WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. ON SUNDAY...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 20
OR 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
07/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
411 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
EXIT SOUTHEAST WI BY LATE EVENING AS WELL...AND THE AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE MILWAUKEE TO KENOSHA AREA WILL DIMINISH. ORIGINALLY WE
WERE THINKING IT WOULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
LOW LAYER AIR IS COOL ENOUGH TO DEVELOP ICE CRYSTALS AND THAT/S WHY
WE/RE SEEING SNOW.
THE ONLY FORCING LEFT AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...WHICH
NAM AND RAP FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT LAYER TO BE VERY SHALLOW...LESS
THAN 5000 FEET. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING AND
THEN STAY STEADY OR GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A MID
LEVEL TROUGH IN THE MORNING...THEN EJECTING INTO THE MIDWEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SWING UP INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY
EVENING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
HELP TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE MORNING...THUS A
CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
SLOWER WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF.
MEANWHILE...WE WILL ALSO BE SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...AND
STRONG WARMING WILL BE OCCURRING AT 850-700MB. IT WILL BE A MATTER
OF WHEN THE WHOLE COLUMN CAN SATURATE BEFORE RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
CAN FULLY DEVELOP. IN THE MEANTIME...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
MIXED PCPN...MAINLY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND
OVERSPREAD THE CWA FRI AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES VIA THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A LOW LEVEL JET AS
WELL AS THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM SE IA TO ERN LOWER MI FROM THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH 12Z SAT AND DEEPEN FROM 997 MB TO 990 MB. SFC
TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT HOWEVER A
FROZEN GROUND AND ROADS CAN STILL BECOME ICY. WENT WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WHERE TEMPS WILL HOVER
CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK VERSUS SLIGHTLY MILDER CONDITIONS OVER
SE WI. THE INITIAL BAND OF PCPN COULD BE FREEZING RAIN OVER ALL OF
SRN WI INITIALLY WITH TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING OVER SE WI AND ONLY
RAIN EXPECTED. THE RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. AROUND INCH OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...BUT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON WHERE COOLER TEMPS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ARE EXPECTED.
LIGHTER PCPN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD.
BRISK WLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL ON SAT FOLLOWED BY
THE PASSAGE OF A SFC RIDGE SAT NT. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A PROGRESSIVE JET STREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SLY WINDS...WARM ADVECTION...AND CHANCES OF MIXED PCPN
FOR MAINLY SUN NT.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
NW FLOW TO PREVAIL WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LOWS AND CHANCES OF LGT
SNOW AFFECTING THE REGION FOR MON NT INTO TUE AND AGAIN ON THU.
TEMPS TO BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WI THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREA OF MVFR AND FUEL ALT TOWARD WEST
CENTRAL WI TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. ONCE THOSE LOWER
CEILINGS MOVE IN...NOT SURE IF THEY WILL GET OUT OF HERE OVERNIGHT
OR IF THEY WILL JUST HANG AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WI EXPECTED TO EXIT BY LATE EVENING.
GLOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING...BUT
QUESTIONABLE ABOUT DEEP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PATCHY FOG WILL
ACCOMPANY THE WARMER...MOISTER AIR AS WELL.
RAIN WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KEEP AN EYE ON PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO DETERMINE IF IT WILL FREEZE ONTO VARIOUS SURFACES. IT WILL BE
HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECTING WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 22 KNOTS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN.
HIGH RESOLUTION VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM WED REVEALS EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER COVERING MAJORITY OF NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE THE ICE TO BREAK UP A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ056-062-063-067.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR WIZ046-047-057.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1203 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014
.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS A BREAK TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BAND. NO
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW SIGNALS WITH THIS INITIAL SHALLOW BAND.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH LATE EVENING. RAP SOUNDINGS FROM THIS
MORNING ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY COOLER SATURATED COLUMN FROM SFC TO
10KFT OVER FAR SOUTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE. OBS
IN CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL ARE SHOWING SNOW AT THIS TIME.
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER IL RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND WAA OVER
SOUTHERN WI TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WE COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN WI SHOULD
ONLY BE TEMPORARY AND MOVE OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN THIS EVENING AND
HANG THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BREAKS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME -ZL OR LIGHT
SNOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMER...MOISTER AIR AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 4 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE BITTER COLD -5 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE. AS
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 14Z...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM
RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO AVOID A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS OF -20 OR
COLDER. HENCE WL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVY...BUT WILL REISSUE SPS
FOR BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOCALIZED WIND CHILL VALUES THIS
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY TO ABOVE ZERO ONCE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ADVANCE INTO SOUTHERN WI. BOTH AREAS OF CLOUDS BEING
CAUSED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND SURGING WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO THE EAST AND NORTH. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
OMEGA WITH BOTH WEAK SYSTEMS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER AREA TO THE SOUTH HAS A BIT MORE LAYER
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND LOWER LATE AFTERNOON CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS. CONTINUE SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTN. MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS LATE
AFTN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ICE
CRYSTAL INITIATION IN CLOUD LAYER.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND WEAK OMEGA JUST TO THE
SOUTH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING. HENCE WL REMOVE LOW
POPS AFTER THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER THICKENING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING OVER COLD SURFACE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME PATCHY FOG...FLURRIES
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO REMAIN STEADY OR RISE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE EARLY FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS INDICATING
THE SATURATION MAY NOT BE DEEP/COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION. THUS WENT WITH MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
SURFACE TEMPS AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW FARTHER NORTHWEST. HARD TO
NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODEL
TEMPERATURES...SO KEPT A GENERAL MIX.
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL WEST TO EAST BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIP LIKELY TRANSITIONING FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT BY
THE TIME THE SOUTHEAST COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. COULD SEE A COUPLE
INCHES NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY IF LATEST ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN ARE
RIGHT WITH DEFORMATION SNOW MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW
LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL ROLL THROUGH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...SO KEPT SOME POPS GOING. NOT VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OR THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE...SO CONFIDENCE STILL ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH THE SPECIFICS FOR NOW. WENT WITH CONSENSUS OF
SOLUTIONS...RESULTING IN TEMPS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW.
LOOKS DRIER AND COLDER WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING POSSIBLY
REACHING MVFR LEVELS LATER TODAY. GOOD CHANCE FOR LOWER CIGS
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME -ZL. PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE
WARMER...MOISTER AIR AS WELL.
MARINE...LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TODAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH OF A PROLONGED PERIOD TO HOIST SMALL CRAFT AT
THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN.
HIGH RESOLUTION VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM WED REVEALS EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER COVERING MAJORITY OF NEARSHORE WATERS. INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY CAUSE THE ICE TO BREAK UP A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV