Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 01/03/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
149 PM PST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JANUARY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT EAST
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
IN FACT, NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A
QUICK MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TODAY. RIDGING
ALOFT THROUGH TOMORROW WILL YIELD CONTINUED INVERSIONS IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS. WITH NO SNOW COVER AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE, THESE
INVERSIONS ARE NOT SUPER STRONG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW WEAK
MIXING TO ~1000 FT AGL TODAY/TOMORROW WHICH MAY HELP DISPERSE
POLLUTANTS/HAZE A LITTLE.
FAST MOVING TROF SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP ERODE INVERSIONS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS. HIGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
IN THE 55-60 RANGE ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY
MEDIUM - DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY INVERSIONS ARE MIXED OUT. COOLER
AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A NOTICEABLE
DROP IN TEMPS. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE BACK - BUT LIGHT EAST
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED TO ABOUT 7000-7500 FT MSL.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTS OF FZFG LATE TONIGHT IN THE FALLON/LOVELOCK
VICINITIES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO CONFLICTING INGREDIENTS -
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO STREAM INTO THE AREA BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HRRR GUIDANCE POINT TO RENEWED FOG DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH FAVORABLE MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. CS
&&
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR KEEPING THE
BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, DECREASING THE CHANCE OF A TRUE PACIFIC STORM REACHING THE
SIERRA. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE, BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
FOR SUNDAY, THE INVERSION IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES OF RECOVERY IN MOST OF
THE REGION WITH LIMITED AREAS OF CIRRUS COVERAGE. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND THE
SIERRA VALLEYS, EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE WEST CENTRAL NV
BASIN WHERE INVERSION WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT.
FOR MONDAY, HAVE TRENDED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS RIDGE
FLATTENS BUT A THICK LAYER OF CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE DAY. EARLIER THIS WEEK, A SIMILAR PATTERN
OCCURRED WHICH RESULTED IN MAX TEMPS BEING SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
ON TUESDAY, AS MENTIONED ABOVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE IS STILL INDICATED ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. AIR
MASS IS LIKELY TO BE COOL ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80. THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP DECREASES ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER
WHERE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LATER NEXT WEEK, THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK APPEARS TO BE
FAVORING INCREASED CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIP IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, BUT STILL DRY IN THE SIERRA. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM RUN TO RUN SO THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS
FOR THE PACIFIC MOISTURE TO BE DIRECTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN BREAKING OUT OF THIS DRY
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THE MONTH. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR FOR AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH JUST
PERIODS OF SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. HAZE AT RNO/CXP WILL CONTINUE BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO RESTRICT VISIBILITIES BELOW 6SM. IFR FZFG MAY
DEVELOP AT LOL/NFL FROM 12-16Z/THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO HIGH CLOUDS POTENTIALLY LIMITING FOG FORMATION. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1008 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GLANCE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERLY
COLORADO TODAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOUNTAINS
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO BETTER PROXIMITY
TO DYNAMICS THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE GIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THAT AREA. STILL A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES WITH NAM12 KEEPING
ALL THE SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF OFFER
UP MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TODAY. RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO OFFER
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY OUT TOWARDS KIOWA COUNTY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SCATTERED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...EVEN A BRIEF LIKELY
POP FOR THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS OF TELLER AND NRN EL
PASO RIGHT AROUND 15Z. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN UNDER
AN INCH.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. CAA WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY
THE GUSTY WINDS AND MIXING...SO HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND
NOON...THEN STAY STEADY BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TOWARDS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LARGELY
TOP OUT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS WILL ONLY
MAKE THE TEENS. OTHER CONUNDRUM WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR ALAMOSA.
ON THE ONE HAND...THE UPPER TROF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
MIXING TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
20S. ON THE OTHER HAND IF INVERSIONS ARE TOO STRONG THEN HIGHS
COULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS. HAVE GONE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG VALLEY EDGES WHERE MIXING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPERATURES IN
KALS COULD APPROACH -20 BASED ON MET GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE...THOUGH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MET AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE...TEENS LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHILE LEE TROFING AND SOME
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S ALONG THE LOWER
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25. GIVEN HOW DRY
THE ATMOS IS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING FOG
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS PROBABILITY LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM TO AROUND +2C BY FRIDAY. WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60F ON THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...EXCEPT FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE PASSING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A COLD ASSOCIATED WITH EACH
DISTURBANCE. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SOME
ARCTIC AIR...AND THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE AMOUNT OF COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
HAVING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR STAYING FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND ONLY WENT WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONTS. IF THE COLD AIR MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...THEN
HIGHS COLD EASILY BE 10F COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WEAK STABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOSTLY LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS
WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL
BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN LESSER CHANCES FOR SNOW.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH.
.TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE ANTICIPATED. WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE SMALL. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1002 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME -SHRASN VC THE KPUB
AND KOCS TERMINALS TODAY. COULD SEE A BRIEF INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE THINGS TAPER OFF TO
THE E INTO KS. WINDS FROM THE N-NW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT
THERE COULD BE AN OCCASIONAL GUSTY PERIOD OR TWO. IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...THE PROBABILITY OF FG WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT BUT LOW DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...SO WILL GO WITH THE ONGOING
FORECAST WHICH KEEPS KALS CLEAR TONIGHT. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
658 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GLANCE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERLY
COLORADO TODAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOUNTAINS
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO BETTER PROXIMITY
TO DYNAMICS THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE GIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THAT AREA. STILL A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES WITH NAM12 KEEPING
ALL THE SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF OFFER
UP MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TODAY. RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO OFFER
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY OUT TOWARDS KIOWA COUNTY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SCATTERED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...EVEN A BRIEF LIKELY
POP FOR THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS OF TELLER AND NRN EL
PASO RIGHT AROUND 15Z. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN UNDER
AN INCH.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. CAA WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY
THE GUSTY WINDS AND MIXING...SO HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND
NOON...THEN STAY STEADY BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TOWARDS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LARGELY
TOP OUT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS WILL ONLY
MAKE THE TEENS. OTHER CONUNDRUM WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR ALAMOSA.
ON THE ONE HAND...THE UPPER TROF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
MIXING TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
20S. ON THE OTHER HAND IF INVERSIONS ARE TOO STRONG THEN HIGHS
COULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS. HAVE GONE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG VALLEY EDGES WHERE MIXING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPERATURES IN
KALS COULD APPROACH -20 BASED ON MET GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE...THOUGH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MET AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE...TEENS LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHILE LEE TROFING AND SOME
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S ALONG THE LOWER
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25. GIVEN HOW DRY
THE ATMOS IS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING FOG
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS PROBABILITY LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM TO AROUND +2C BY FRIDAY. WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60F ON THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...EXCEPT FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE PASSING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A COLD ASSOCIATED WITH EACH
DISTURBANCE. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SOME
ARCTIC AIR...AND THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE AMOUNT OF COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
HAVING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR STAYING FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND ONLY WENT WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONTS. IF THE COLD AIR MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...THEN
HIGHS COLD EASILY BE 10F COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WEAK STABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOSTLY LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS
WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL
BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN LESSER CHANCES FOR SNOW.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH.
.TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE ANTICIPATED. WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE SMALL. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
MID CLOUDS ARE HAMPERING FOG FORMATION AT KALS THIS MORNING SO
HAVE UPDATED TAF TO REMOVE FOG. PASSING SHOWERS AT KCOS HAVE
PROMPTED INCLUSION OF A VFR TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHSN. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
444 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GLANCE THROUGH NORTHERN AND EASTERLY
COLORADO TODAY SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MOUNTAINS
AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW...WITH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PICKING UP SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO BETTER PROXIMITY
TO DYNAMICS THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY OROGRAPHIC
FLOW INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE GIVING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION FOR THAT AREA. STILL A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES WITH NAM12 KEEPING
ALL THE SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS AND ECMWF OFFER
UP MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALBEIT LIGHT...ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS TODAY. RAP13 AND HRRR SEEM TO OFFER
A CONSENSUS SOLUTION WITH LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY OUT TOWARDS KIOWA COUNTY PICKING UP SOME LIGHT SNOW. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SCATTERED POPS FOR THESE AREAS...EVEN A BRIEF LIKELY
POP FOR THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS OF TELLER AND NRN EL
PASO RIGHT AROUND 15Z. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN UNDER
AN INCH.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BRINGING SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS...ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES. CAA WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY
THE GUSTY WINDS AND MIXING...SO HIGHS WILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND
NOON...THEN STAY STEADY BEFORE FALLING AGAIN TOWARDS EVENING. HAVE
KEPT HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LARGELY
TOP OUT IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S...THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS WILL ONLY
MAKE THE TEENS. OTHER CONUNDRUM WILL BE TEMPERATURES FOR ALAMOSA.
ON THE ONE HAND...THE UPPER TROF HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME
MIXING TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
20S. ON THE OTHER HAND IF INVERSIONS ARE TOO STRONG THEN HIGHS
COULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS. HAVE GONE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG VALLEY EDGES WHERE MIXING IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN TEMPERATURES IN
KALS COULD APPROACH -20 BASED ON MET GUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SEEM
TOO UNREASONABLE...THOUGH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MET AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE...TEENS LOOK LIKELY
FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY WHILE LEE TROFING AND SOME
WESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 20S ALONG THE LOWER
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25. GIVEN HOW DRY
THE ATMOS IS ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING FOG
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AS PROBABILITY LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WARM TO AROUND +2C BY FRIDAY. WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60F ON THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...IT WILL BE DRY
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE
COUNTY BY LATE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD...EXCEPT FOR THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED.
.SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ONE DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE PASSING MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A COLD ASSOCIATED WITH EACH
DISTURBANCE. THE REGION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF SOME
ARCTIC AIR...AND THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE AMOUNT OF COOLING
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS
HAVING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR STAYING FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION...AND ONLY WENT WITH MODEST COOLING BEHIND THE
FRONTS. IF THE COLD AIR MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST...THEN
HIGHS COLD EASILY BE 10F COOLER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE
GRIDS. A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. WITH THE WEAK STABILITY...THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THE LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE REMAINING MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...LIGHT SNOW WILL MOSTLY LIKELY ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. ANTICIPATE AMOUNTS
WILL STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY WILL
BE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN LESSER CHANCES FOR SNOW.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY MIX OUT SATURDAY...BUT WITH COLDER AIR
ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT INCREASE MUCH.
.TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH
A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE ANTICIPATED. WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE REGION...CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE SMALL. --PGW--
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THROUGH MID DAY AT BOTH THE KPUB AT KCOS TAF SITES. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
BE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. SOME VFR
CIGS WITH -SHSN WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING...THOUGH BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF
THE KCOS TERMINAL. IF LIGHT SNOW DOES AFFECT THE KCOS TERMINAL...
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH. -SHSN WILL BE EVEN
LESS LIKELY FOR KPUB SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF. KALS
STILL HAS A SHOT FOR SEEING SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG BETWEEN 11Z AND
16Z...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS PERSISTENT AS PAST
FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED -SHSN TODAY WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VIS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS AT TIMES.
CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COMING TO AN END AROUND 09Z. FOG AT
KALS LOOKS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1256 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...LATEST DATA SHOWS A FRONTAL SURGE MAYBE ENHANCED BY
PRECIPITATION NOW ADVANCING SOUTH TOWARD THE CO/WYOMING BORDER. AS
A RESULT...THIS SURGE SHOULD BE THROUGH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BEFORE
DAYBREAK SO HAVE INCREASED POPS BASED ON RAP13 GUIDANCE. THIS
MODELS SEEMS TO BE DOING BEST SO FAR WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES
OF SNOW FOR THE DENVER AREA AS WELL WITH FAVORABLE JET POSITION AND
Q-G LIFT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALSO ADDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE PLAINS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
GIVEN WARMTH OF LOW LEVELS AND MIXING BEFORE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
OCCURS.
&&
.AVIATION...MAY HAVE TO SPEED UP SNOW ARRIVAL AS EARLY AS 12Z
BASED ON LATEST FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND RADAR TRENDS TO OUR NORTH.
BETTER CHANCE WE COULD SEE AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KDEN AND KAPA. STILL THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A WEAK PRESSURE RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA AS SOME OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HAVE DELAYED AND TRIMMED BACK SNOW CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
SECTIONS SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
SNOW CHANCES OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE
FIGHTING THE DRYING...POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW TRYING TO DEVELOP.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH DRIER OF THE MODELS. THE RAP WAS
DRY IN EARLIER RUNS WITH MORE DOWNSLOPE...BUT NOW IS SHOWING MORE
UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY...WHILE QG FIELDS DO SHOW SOME MODEST UPWARD ASCENT
AND WITH THE JET AROUND...HARD TO GO TOO DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TWEAK TIMING AND SNOW CHANCES TO CURRENT GRIDS.
AVIATION...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING AGAIN FOR EARLIER CHANCES OF
SNOW FORM CURRENT TIMING BASED ON LATEST DATA. LATEST TIMING WITH
FRONT INTO DEN NOW AROUND 12-13Z AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 15-21Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY AT DEN AND LESSER CHANCES AT BJC.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013/
SHORT TERM...THERE ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS
.WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER UP TO 25 KNOTS.
NEARLY ALL THE CWA EAST OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF
CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM IS
JUST UPSTREAM ACCORDING THE CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES. NEAR IN
THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM. MODELS BRING THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE CWA FROM ABOUT 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTED JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
AT 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
SHOW UPWARD MOTION FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY STRONG AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST TWO DISTURBANCES...LAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT DOWNSLOPE THIS EVENING...WITH A FRONT AND UPSLOPE BEHIND IT
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE UPSLOPE COVERS THE PLAINS
AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW ...WITH DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLIES AFTER THAT. THERE IS A BIT OF A INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS/PLAINS INTERFACE. FOR MOISTURE...IS BEST ON
THE GFS...BUT THE NAM AND ECMWF DO HAVE SOME. IT EXISTS QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS SEEM TO
LACK SOME FROM THE DOWNSLOPING. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE SOME
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
POPS...WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR THE MOST PART AND KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THEM. WILL NOT GO "LIKELY"S OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS NOT SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH UPSLOPE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5 TO 10 C COLDER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON`S.
LONG TERM...A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND BE WARMEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE GFS BUT HAS COLD AIR MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY AND
HAS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS
PRECIP CENTERED MORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND DOWNSLOPING RIGHT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
HELPING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE.
HOWEVER, I WOULD NOT COUNT OUT SNOW FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT COULD COUNTERACT THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
CONTINUED JET SUPPORT COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 40S THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL AS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLIES ARE PRETTY GOOD NOW AT DIA. WE SHOULD
GO TO DRAINAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THEN GET A BIT OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM AFTER 05Z. WILL BRING UPSLOPE WIND SHIFT IN
ABOUT 11Z. CEILING WILL BECOME AN ISSUE BY 12Z. THEY COULD GET AS
LOW AS 1000 AGL. SNOW ONLY IN PROB30 GROUP NOW...BUT PERHAPS A
TEMPO GROUP WILL BE NEEDED. WOULD NOT PUT IT IN THE PREDOMINANT
PERIOD OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
917 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHERN WYOMING WITH A WEAK PRESSURE RISE ACROSS
SOUTHERN MONTANA AS SOME OBSERVATIONS SITES ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HAVE DELAYED AND TRIMMED BACK SNOW CHANCES OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
SECTIONS SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT
SNOW CHANCES OVER THE FRONT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE
FIGHTING THE DRYING...POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPE FLOW TRYING TO DEVELOP.
THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH DRIER OF THE MODELS. THE RAP WAS
DRY IN EARLIER RUNS WITH MORE DOWNSLOPE...BUT NOW IS SHOWING MORE
UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME
INSTABILITY...WHILE QG FIELDS DO SHOW SOME MODEST UPWARD ASCENT
AND WITH THE JET AROUND...HARD TO GO TOO DRY. WILL CONTINUE TO
TWEAK TIMING AND SNOW CHANCES TO CURRENT GRIDS.
.AVIATION...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST TIMING AGAIN FOR EARLIER CHANCES OF
SNOW FORM CURRENT TIMING BASED ON LATEST DATA. LATEST TIMING WITH
FRONT INTO DEN NOW AROUND 12-13Z AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW
BETWEEN 15-21Z. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AN
INCH OR LESS...MAINLY AT DEN AND LESSER CHANCES AT BJC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013/
SHORT TERM...THERE ARE NORTHWEST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS
..WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER UP TO 25 KNOTS.
NEARLY ALL THE CWA EAST OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF
CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM IS
JUST UPSTREAM ACCORDING THE CURRENT SATELLITE PICTURES. NEAR IN
THE IMMEDIATE UPSTREAM. MODELS BRING THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE CWA FROM ABOUT 12Z-18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTED JET MAXIMUM IS PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL CWA
AT 00Z LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS
SHOW UPWARD MOTION FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT IS PROGGED TO BE PRETTY STRONG AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT IS STRONGER THAN THE LAST TWO DISTURBANCES...LAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PRETTY
DECENT DOWNSLOPE THIS EVENING...WITH A FRONT AND UPSLOPE BEHIND IT
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE UPSLOPE COVERS THE PLAINS
AND LOWER FOOTHILLS THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW ...WITH DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLIES AFTER THAT. THERE IS A BIT OF A INVERTED TROUGH
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS/PLAINS INTERFACE. FOR MOISTURE...IS BEST ON
THE GFS...BUT THE NAM AND ECMWF DO HAVE SOME. IT EXISTS QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FOOTHILLS AND IMMEDIATE PLAINS SEEM TO
LACK SOME FROM THE DOWNSLOPING. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE SOME
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
MINIMAL AMOUNTS OVER THE PLAINS FROM 12Z TO 00Z ON WEDNESDAY. FOR
POPS...WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR THE MOST PART AND KEEP THE
ADVISORIES GOING IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE PLAINS...THE BEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THEM. WILL NOT GO "LIKELY"S OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS NOT SHOWING DECENT ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH UPSLOPE. FOR
TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS ARE 5 TO 10 C COLDER THAN THIS
AFTERNOON`S.
LONG TERM...A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND BE WARMEST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN JUST
AHEAD OF THE GFS BUT HAS COLD AIR MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY AND
HAS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS
PRECIP CENTERED MORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WITH THE FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND DOWNSLOPING RIGHT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS
HELPING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE SNOW AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE.
HOWEVER, I WOULD NOT COUNT OUT SNOW FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
AS BANDED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET THAT COULD COUNTERACT THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
CONTINUED JET SUPPORT COMBINED WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 40S THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL AS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW OVER THE REGION. INCREASED WINDS WITH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS LATER IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...NORTHWESTERLIES ARE PRETTY GOOD NOW AT DIA. WE SHOULD
GO TO DRAINAGE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THEN GET A BIT OF WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THEM AFTER 05Z. WILL BRING UPSLOPE WIND SHIFT IN
ABOUT 11Z. CEILING WILL BECOME AN ISSUE BY 12Z. THEY COULD GET AS
LOW AS 1000 AGL. SNOW ONLY IN PROB30 GROUP NOW...BUT PERHAPS A
TEMPO GROUP WILL BE NEEDED. WOULD NOT PUT IT IN THE PREDOMINANT
PERIOD OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON MST
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....BOWEN
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
649 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL REFORM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DRY...BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM THREATENS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 649 AM EST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. A BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OFF LAKE ONTARIO...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WELL WEST OF OUR AREA. SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ARE OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE THESE AREAS AS WELL.
THE LATEST 09Z HRRR SHOWS SOME FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
MOHAWK VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE. BY
LATER THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL START TO WIND DOWN
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER...AS A STRONG AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS WESTERN PA.
BROAD SW FLOW OVER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TODAY.
MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT THIS SNOW WILL
START TO SPREAD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. WHILE THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH A PARTIAL TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THIS AFTN.
AFTER A VERY COLD START...MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM THE
TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE 20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE
THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AREAS...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NORTHEAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE FAIRLY FAR OFF THE
COAST...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO GET
THROWN BACK INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DEFORMATION WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...BEFORE SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME BANDING OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. WHILE SNOW RATES AREN/T EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME AT
ANY POINT DURING THIS STORM...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH...GENERALLY 15:1 OR
HIGHER...AS STRONG OMEGA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES /WHICH WILL BE VERY LOW TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPS IN PLACE/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO
ADDS UP VERY EASILY TO OCCUR.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS. THE 00Z AND 06Z
NAM HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...WITH OVER 1.00 INCH LIQUID OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM AND GEFS MEAN ARE
SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVE OR TAKE. THE
03Z SREF MEAN FOR KALB IS 0.84 INCHES. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS...AS THE NAM CAN SOMETIMES PICK UP ON MESOSCALE ASPECTS
THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT. EVEN WITH THESE LESSER AMOUNTS...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA /9
INCHES IN 24 HOURS/ ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED HIGH RATIOS...WHICH IS WHY THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ADKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...BUT A PLOWABLE
SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COLD DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. AFTER TEMPS
REACH THE THEIR HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL BASICALLY HOLD
STEADY/SLOWLY FALL FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TONIGHT/THURSDAY...AND FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS WILL FALL ZERO TO MINUS 20 FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A N-NE WIND IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. A WIND CHILL WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF -30 TO
-40 BELOW ZERO FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA..AND
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY FRI AFTN.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE SUN...IT WON/T DO ANYTHING FOR
TEMPS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME AREAS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY MAY NOT EVEN REACH ZERO
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CRESTING OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY. DESPITE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP IT WILL BE COLD WITH
THE FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PIECES OF
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE ABOUT THIS LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AND THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED AS THE POTENT SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST
PASSING THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW BEING FARTHER TO WEST. WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GFSENSEMBLE TRACKS. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THEREFORE P-TYPES.
HAVE USED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WHICH TOOK A
COMPROMISE TRACK THEN LEANED TOWARD THE GFS THE COLDER SCENARIO.
BASED ON THIS HAVE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WOULD EXPECT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD ON MONDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHWARD.
UNCERTAINTY IS THIS FORECAST IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THIS STORM SYSTEM ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT OUR NORMAL LOWS SHOULD
BE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CONDITIONS THEN
DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. IN THE
MEANTIME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE AREA
MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LOWER
AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW MOVES IN.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED A BIT WITH GUSTS AT KALB AND
KPSF. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
TOWARD THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO FORM AND
THICKEN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
433 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TODAY WILL REFORM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DRY...BUT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER
WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM THREATENS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES. A BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OFF LAKE ONTARIO...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WELL WEST OF OUR AREA. SOME STRATOCU CLOUDS
FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY ARE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS
HERKIMER COUNTY. THE LATEST 07Z HRRR SHOWS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INVERSION HEIGHTS SLOWLY
LOWER...SO LITTLE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE OVER HERKIMER COUNTY THIS MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS WESTERN PA.
BROAD SW FLOW OVER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TODAY.
MOST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT THIS SNOW WILL
START TO SPREAD TOWARDS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. WHILE THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THIS AFTN.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE
20S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE
THE ADIRONDACKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AREAS...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...
WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTH OF THE AREA...ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE NORTHEAST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BE FAIRLY FAR OFF THE
COAST...BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO GET
THROWN BACK INTO OUR AREA. WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TOWARDS OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...DEFORMATION WILL ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...BEFORE SNOWFALL TAPERS OFF EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME BANDING OF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. WHILE SNOW RATES AREN/T EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME AT
ANY POINT DURING THIS STORM...THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE EVENT
WILL ALLOW FOR A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ACROSS OUR AREA.
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE VERY HIGH...GENERALLY 15:1 OR
HIGHER...AS STRONG OMEGA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONES /WHICH WILL BE VERY LOW TO THE GROUND DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPS IN PLACE/. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW TO
ADDS UP VERY EASILY TO OCCUR.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF OCCURS. THE 00Z AND 06Z
NAM HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING MUCH MORE QPF THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...WITH OVER 1.00 INCH LIQUID OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. MEANWHILE..THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM AND GEFS MEAN ARE
SHOWING AROUND 0.60 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GIVE OR TAKE. THE
03Z SREF MEAN FOR KALB IS 0.84 INCHES. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSE
TO MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL
TRENDS...AS THE NAM CAN SOMETIMES PICK UP ON MESOSCALE ASPECTS
THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT. EVEN WITH THESE LESSER AMOUNTS...IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA /9
INCHES IN 24 HOURS/ ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED HIGH RATIOS...WHICH IS WHY THE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE ADKS/LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
AREA...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...BUT A PLOWABLE
SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COLD DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT. AFTER TEMPS
REACH THE THEIR HIGH ON WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL BASICALLY HOLD
STEADY/SLOWLY FALL FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TONIGHT/THURSDAY...AND FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS WILL FALL ZERO TO MINUS 20 FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A N-NE WIND IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. A WIND CHILL WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL VALUES OF -30 TO
-40 BELOW ZERO FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA..AND
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SKIES LOOK TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY FRI AFTN.
DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE SUN...IT WON/T DO ANYTHING FOR
TEMPS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME AREAS
IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY MAY NOT EVEN REACH ZERO
FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WE WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CRESTING OVER THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH A FRESH SNOW THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY. DESPITE A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP IT WILL BE COLD WITH
THE FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS.
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AS A POTENT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DIGGING A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PIECES OF
ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE ABOUT THIS LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AND THE FORECAST GETS
COMPLICATED AS THE POTENT SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRACK THE LOW FARTHER TO THE WEST
PASSING THE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER LOW BEING FARTHER TO WEST. WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OPERATIONAL
GFS IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GFSENSEMBLE TRACKS. THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE THERMAL PROFILE AND THEREFORE P-TYPES.
HAVE USED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WHICH TOOK A
COMPROMISE TRACK THEN LEANED TOWARD THE GFS THE COLDER SCENARIO.
BASED ON THIS HAVE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WOULD EXPECT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
LITCHFIELD ON MONDAY WITH RAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTHWARD.
UNCERTAINTY IS THIS FORECAST IS HIGH AT THIS TIME.
FOLLOWING THIS STORM SYSTEM ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT OUR NORMAL LOWS SHOULD
BE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 04Z-06Z/THURSDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW EXPECTED TO START BY LATE IN
THE EVENING.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH
GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND PICK UP IN SPEED A BIT WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT
KALB AND KPSF. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
WEEK...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW RIVER AND LAKE ICE TO FORM AND
THICKEN.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066.
WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1251 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH NEW YEARS DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SQUALLS WHICH WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE
TO BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
WILL FOLLOW TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1251 AM EST...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HAS WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT...BUT IS STILL IMPACTING THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. KTYX
RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS NOW WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE
TUG HILL PLATEAU. THE LATEST 03Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS BAND SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE HEAVIEST ECHOES
REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION AND CLOSER TO THE LAKE SHORE.
STILL...SINCE SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS /ESP NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AROUND THE OLD FORGE
AREA/ OVERNIGHT WE WILL KEEP THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES IN
PLACE...BUT THEY MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL THEIR CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIME OF 10 AM THIS MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BAND SITS OVER ONE LOCATION...BUT
LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES
LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OLD FORGE/INLET AREA.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A FAIRLY QUIET START TO 2014 WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT BAND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY FALLS APART. AFTER
THAT...NEW YEAR`S DAY WILL START OFF DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORNING SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...ANY SUNSHINE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND
THIS WILL BRING US OUR NEXT SNOW STORM BY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM...WHICH INCLUDES MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC AS WELL
AS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...WILL THICKEN LATE IN THE DAY. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD BREAK OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING WOULD BE ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS BUT OVERALL...MOST PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEW
YEAR`S DAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S...LOWER 20S LOCALLY IN
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT ONLY TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.
AN STEADY OVERRUNNING SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AT NIGHT ESPECIALLY LATE WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT. ALOFT...IT LOOKS AS A FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL SET UP OVER OUR
REGION WHICH WILL SERVE AS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE/COLD CONVEYOR BELT
FOR ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO OVERRUN. THE SNOW COULD BE MODERATE AT
TIMES (ABOUT HALF AN INCH PER HOUR) BUT MUCH OF TIME THE SNOWFALL
RATE COULD BE A LITTLE LESS. THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO LOOKS TO BE A
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL OF 13:1...PROBABLY
CLOSER TO 20:1. GIVEN THAT SNOW LOOKS TO FALL THROUGH
THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING...WE ARE LOOKING FOR A GENERAL 6-12 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS).
IT WILL BE VERY COLD WHEN IT IS SNOWING...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE TEENS (AND EVEN SINGLE NUMBERS UP NORTH). THIS WILL MAKE IT
HARD FOR TREATED ROADS TO STAY WET. IT WILL ALSO INCREASE OF
RISK FROST BITE FOR THOSE NOT PROPERLY DRESSED TO REMOVE SNOW...OR
HAVING TO WALK FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OUTSIDE.
THE SNOW LOOKS TO FINALLY MOVE OUT ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY...ENERGY
FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PHASE WITH AN OCEAN STORM WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS STORM ORIGINALLY LOOKED TO BRING
MORE SNOW ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THAT THREAT IS NOW GONE.
WHAT IS NOT GONE HOWEVER...IS BITTERLY COLD AIR THAT WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAY OF DISTURBANCE. THE OCEAN STORM...DESPITE BEING WELL
OFFSHORE...WILL HELP PINWHEEL AIR COLDER THAN -20C OVER OUR REGION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A BREEZE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
LOOK TO STAY IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
NORTHWARD...TEENS SOUTH. IN FACT...MANY FOLKS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO ALL DAY LONG. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A 10 TO 20 MPH NORTHWEST WIND WILL PRODUCE
POTENTIAL DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE...ONLY TO
GET EVEN LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING EARLY ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH FRESH
SNOW COVER...LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECT TEMPS TO
PLUMMET WITH LOWS FORECAST TO DROP TO BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 20 BELOW
ZERO...WITH SOME PLACES IN THE ADIRONDACKS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 25
BELOW ZERO.
THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL RECOVER BY AS
MUCH AS 30 TO 40 DEGREES ON SATURDAY...IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD
WITH LOWS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIG DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE
NEXT STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. ECMWF
HAS THE LOW TRACKING WELL TO THE WEST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHEAST NY. THE
RESULTANT WEATHER WOULD BE MAINLY RAIN BASED ON THE ECMWF...WITH
MAINLY SNOW OR MIXED PCPN WITH THE GFS. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED A
COLDER SOLUTION...BUT MILD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME
POINT OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S.
AFTER THE STORM GOES BY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO
15 ABOVE...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
FRIGID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BETWEEN 5 ABOVE AND 10 BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 04Z-06Z/THURSDAY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A COMPLEX
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDS FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN WITH LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW EXPECTED TO START BY LATE IN
THE EVENING.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST SURFACE WINDS AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH
GUSTS CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND WILL BE MORE
WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AND PICK UP IN SPEED A BIT WITH GUSTS EXPECTED AT
KALB AND KPSF. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS SN.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. IT WILL BE VERY COLDER SO ICE FORMATION AND THICKENING WILL
OCCUR.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ032-033.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1033 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO TORONTO
AND INDIANAPOLIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. TWO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY, ONE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
A SECONDARY LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THESE WILL MERGE INTO
ONE LOW OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VARIABLE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS TODAY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. ENJOY THIS
RELATIVE WARMTH!
THE 12Z HRRR AND NAM ARE BOTH FCSTG MEASURABLE SNOW TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MONROE AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON (20-23Z)
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.
HALF AN INCH OR SO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE. THE 12Z
RAP HAS TEMPORARILY BACKED OFF THIS POSSIBILITY. RADAR AT 15Z AND
ON-GOING LIGHT SNOW KIPT WWD HAS CONVINCED ME TO MAKE THE ADJUSTMENT.
POPS WERE RAISED TO 40-50 PCT IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES AND THE 0-12 HR
GRAPHIC NOW HAS 0.3" THERE.
OTRW THE 330 AM FCST WAS BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN THE 930AM AND 1017
AM ESTF UPDATES WITH THE STANDARD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR REALITY
TEMPS/SKYCOVER.
TONIGHT...THE SPC WRF AND SOME OTHER MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT PCPN
FROM COASTAL NNJ THROUGH NW NJ. THIS SHALLOW WAA AT THE TOP OF THE
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWS WEAK 3MB/SEC UVM PULSES NEAR 4000
FT. THIS COULD HAPPEN AS SNOW GRAINS OR LIGHT SNOW AND WILL
REEVALUATE FOR THE 330 PM PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
WE SAW THE SWD SHIFTED AND DRIER 12Z/1 NAM PUTTING A LITTLE LESS
EMPHASIS ON THE WESTWARD OF THE TWO SFC LOWS E OF THE MID ATLC
COAST.
THE 00Z/1 CYCLES WERE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON THE UPCOMING EVENT WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS QPF ABOUT 30 PCT OF THE NAM WHICH WAS MODELING
MUCH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE TRAILING SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST INSTEAD
OF THE PROBABLE PRIMARY FURTHER EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST....NEAR
38/70 BY DAYS END. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
LATE THU AFTN AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKING SWD WILL PROVIDE
FURTHER LIFT IN THE I80 REGION NWD AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS ITS
SWD INTRUSION.
ALL THE 00Z/1 CYCLE MODELS AS WELL AS THE 12Z/1 NAM HAVE A DRY WEDGE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 800-650 MB THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY.
SO THE DAYTIME EVOLUTION IS STILL MUCH IN DOUBT THO THE SREF IMPLIES
1-3" OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN DAYBREAK THU AND SUNSET THU
I80 REGION OR NORTH OF THAT ACROSS NORTHERN MONROE AND NORTHERN
SUSSEX COUNTIES IN NJ. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY S OF I78...ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPS AND LITTLE GOING ON DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE POLAR/ARCTIC JET INDUCING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE A TON OF MOISTURE POOLS
NEAR A FRONT, A SURFACE LOW, AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE TWO LOWS BEGIN TO PHASE
OFFSHORE. COME FRIDAY, THE MERGED LOW DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OFFERING A
BRIEF RETURN FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, FROM THE
WEST, ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A HIGH TO OUR
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW/WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. ABOUT NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW/WELL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LATTER DAY
THE COLDER OF THE TWO. THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY
COULD SEE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WIND WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS WELL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WON`T
BE AS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
20-25 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20F ACROSS THE
POCONOS, -10 TO -15F ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY, 0 TO -10 ACROSS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. WITH LESS WIND FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 ABOVE TO -15.
PRECIPITATION...WHILE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS TURNS TO ALL SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
STAYS THAT WAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY. ON
SUNDAY, THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIXED AND/OR RAIN EVENT.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME.
IMPACTS...WHILE SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THURSDAY N
OF I80, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS, GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, LOW
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY WITH 20- TO POTENTIALLY 30-1 RATIOS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 15-1 RATIOS SHOULD BE COMMON WHERE TEMPS
HANG OUT IN THE TEENS.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
COASTAL (TIDAL) FLOODING AND FREEZING SPRAY ON AND RIGHT NEXT TO
AREA WATERS. MORE ON THIS BELOW.
MORE IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT, BUT LOOKS MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST ZONES.
HEADLINES...WINTER STORM WATCH I80 NORTH 23Z THURSDAY THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 10000 FT. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWERING CIGS
ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE KTTN. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY KABE-KSMQ. GUSTY
ENE WIND DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
IFR AT NIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST, THEN
SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY ALL IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...WHILE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING CLOSER TO THE REGION WE WILL PROBABLY OPT FOR
A STRAIGHT GALE THU NIGHT- FRI PER STRONG 03Z/1 SREF SIGNAL (40
PCT 34 KT SUSTAINED). WE MAY BEGIN THE GALE IN THE NNJ WATERS AT
4 PM THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH INCREASING SEAS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEW MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TOTAL TIDE LEVELS. THE THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE APPROACHED WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE FROM SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY AND ALSO AT LEWES, DELAWARE. THE
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS OF GREATER CONCERN AS CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING,
WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF NJ HAVING THE HIGHEST DEPARTURES,
INCLUDING THE COASTS OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND INTO
RARITAN BAY. IN ADDITION, DELAWARE BAY WOULD ALSO BE AT RISK FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.
ELSEWHERE, TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME INTO THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER OR ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY,
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FOR A PERSPECTIVE AT THIS FORECAST JUNCTURE...
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST AT LEAST DATING BACK AS FOLLOWS:
OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING JANUARY 4, 2014:
KILG AROUND 7F. LAST TIME WAS 1/16-17/2009 AT 7 AND 5 RESPECTIVELY.
KPHL AROUND 7F. LAST TIME WAS JAN 17, 2009.
KABE AROUND 0F. LAST TIME THIS COLD WAS JAN 24, 2011.
FOR THOSE LOOKING AT RECORDS WITH A PROBABLE FRESH SNOW COVER TO
ASSIST MAGNIFYING THE INCOMING LATE WEEK COLD AIRMASS...
1/3 1/4
KACY...-2 1879 0 1918 POR 1874
KPHL...-3 1879 2 1918 POR 1872
KILG...+4 1918 -1 1918 POR 1894
KABE...+6 1945 -4 1981 POR 1922
KTTN...-4 1879 -1 1918 POR 1865
KGED...+8 1962 4 1979 POR 1948
KRDG...+1 1918 -5 1981 POR 1869
KMPO...-7 1904 -23 1981 POR 1901
POR = PERIOD OF RECORD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KRUZDLO 1034A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1034A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1034A
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 1034A
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO 1034A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
850 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HAPPY NEW YEAR! HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA SHIFTS OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO TORONTO AND INDIANAPOLIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY, ONE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND A SECONDARY LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST. THESE
WILL MERGE INTO ONE LOW OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VARIABLE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. BOTH THE 11Z/1 HRRR AND RAP
MODELS ARE FCSTG MEASURABLE SNOW TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MONROE
AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SWD MOVING ARCTIC BOUNDARY. HALF AN INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE AND PRESUMING THE 12Z
NAM CONFIRMS...WE WILL ENSURE THIS IS ACCOUNTED FOR THE 930 AM
UPDATE... SO THIS SMALL CHANGE IS PENDING THE 930AM UPDATE AND
RECEIPT OF THE FIRST 24 HRS OF THE 12Z/1 NAM. THAT WOULD MEAN POPS
INCREASED 40 PCT IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES AND SNOWFALL INCREASED BY
.4. THE 00Z/1 SPC WRF HAS NOT FCST THIS HRRR/RAP SOLN.
OTRW THE 330 AM FCST IS PROBABLY UNCHANGED AT 930 AM WITH THE
STANDARD MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR REALITY TEMPS/SKYCOVER.
TODAY`S TEMPS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TONIGHT...THE SPC WRF AND SOME OTHER MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT PCPN
FROM COASTAL NNJ THROUGH NW NJ AFTER ROUGHLY 05Z. WE`LL MONITOR
THE MODELS FOR SNOW AND OR ICE AND CONSIDER FOR THE 330 PM
ISSUANCE A PRE STORM ADVY IF ICE?
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
00Z CYCLES WERE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON THE UPCOMING EVENT WITH THE
ECMWF AND GFS QPF ABOUT 30 PCT OF THE NAM WHICH WAS MODELING MUCH
MORE EMPHASIS ON THE TRAILING SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST INSTEAD OF
THE PROBABLE PRIMARY FURTHER EAST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST....NEAR
38/70 BY DAYS END. THERE WILL BE TREMENDOUS CYCLONIC CURVATURE
LATE THU AFTN AND THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SINKING SWD WILL PROVIDE
FURTHER LIFT IN THE I80 REGION NWD AS THE ARCTIC AIR BEGINS ITS
SWD INTRUSION.
ALL THE 00Z/1 CYCLE MODELS HAVE A DRY WEDGE BETWEEN ROUGHLY
800-650 MB THURSDAY MORNING/MIDDAY.
SO THE DAYTIME EVOLUTION IS STILL MUCH IN DOUBT THO THE SREF
IMPLIES 1-3" OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN DAYBREAK THU AND
SUNSET THU I80 REGION OR NORTH OF THAT ACROSS NORTHERN MONROE AND
NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES IN NJ. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY S OF
I78...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND LITTLE GOING ON DURING THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE POLAR/ARCTIC JET INDUCING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE A TON OF MOISTURE POOLS
NEAR A FRONT, A SURFACE LOW, AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THE TWO LOWS BEGIN TO PHASE
OFFSHORE. COME FRIDAY, THE MERGED LOW DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT OFFERING A
BRIEF RETURN FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION, FROM THE
WEST, ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. THE REGION COULD EXPERIENCE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A HIGH TO OUR
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FURTHER EAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES...BELOW/WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. ABOUT NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BELOW/WELL BELOW NORMAL
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE LATTER DAY
THE COLDER OF THE TWO. THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY
COULD SEE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE.
WIND WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS WELL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WON`T
BE AS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
20-25 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20F ACROSS THE
POCONOS, -10 TO -15F ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY, 0 TO -10 ACROSS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. WITH LESS WIND FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM 15 ABOVE TO -15.
PRECIPITATION...WHILE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS TURNS TO ALL SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
STAYS THAT WAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING. SATURDAY REMAINS DRY. ON
SUNDAY, THE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD ARRIVE WITH THE
COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A MIXED AND/OR RAIN EVENT.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME.
IMPACTS...WHILE SOME SNOW COULD BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE ON THURSDAY N
OF I80, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS COULD BE FELT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD
AIRMASS, GUSTY WINDS PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, LOW
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY WITH 20- TO POTENTIALLY 30-1 RATIOS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 15-1 RATIOS SHOULD BE COMMON WHERE TEMPS
HANG OUT IN THE TEENS.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF
COASTAL (TIDAL) FLOODING AND FREEZING SPRAY ON AND RIGHT NEXT TO
AREA WATERS. MORE ON THIS BELOW.
MORE IMPACTS COULD BE REALIZED ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT, BUT LOOKS MORE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST ZONES.
HEADLINES...WINTER STORM WATCH I80 NORTH 23Z THURSDAY THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR, WITH CLOUD CEILINGS MAINLY OF THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
VARIETY. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOWERING CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
VARIABLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THURSDAY...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR, ESPECIALLY KABE-KSMQ.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ON SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
IFR AT NIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SEAS AND WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. WEST WINDS THIS
MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST, THEN
SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY ALL IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...WHILE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN
THE DAY, AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE REGION WE WILL PROBABLY OPT FOR A STRAIGHT
GALE THU NIGHT-FRI PER STRONG SREF SIGNAL (40 PCT 34 KT SUSTAINED).
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ALONG
WITH INCREASING SEAS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEW MOON HAVING JUST OCCURRED ON WEDNESDAY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TOTAL TIDE LEVELS. THE THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE APPROACHED WITH THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE FROM SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY AND ALSO AT LEWES, DELAWARE. THE
FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE IS OF GREATER CONCERN AS CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING,
WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF NJ HAVING THE HIGHEST DEPARTURES,
INCLUDING THE COASTS OF MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES AND INTO
RARITAN BAY. IN ADDITION, DELAWARE BAY WOULD ALSO BE AT RISK FOR
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT.
ELSEWHERE, TIDAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME INTO THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER OR ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY,
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FOR A PERSPECTIVE AT THIS FORECAST JUNCTURE...
THE COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST AT LEAST DATING BACK AS FOLLOWS:
OUR LATEST FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MORNING JANUARY 4, 2014:
KILG AROUND 7F. LAST TIME WAS 1/16-17/2009 AT 7 AND 5 RESPECTIVELY.
KPHL AROUND 7F. LAST TIME WAS JAN 17, 2009.
KABE AROUND 0F. LAST TIME THIS COLD WAS JAN 24, 2011.
FOR THOSE LOOKING AT RECORDS WITH A PROBABLE FRESH SNOW COVER TO
ASSIST MAGNIFYING THE INCOMING LATE WEEK COLD AIRMASS...
1/3 1/4
KACY...-2 1879 0 1918 POR 1874
KPHL...-3 1879 2 1918 POR 1872
KILG...+4 1918 -1 1918 POR 1894
KABE...+6 1945 -4 1981 POR 1922
KTTN...-4 1879 -1 1918 POR 1865
KGED...+8 1962 4 1979 POR 1948
KRDG...+1 1918 -5 1981 POR 1869
KMPO...-7 1904 -23 1981 POR 1901
POR = PERIOD OF RECORD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO/DRAG 850A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MIKETTA 850A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MIKETTA 850A
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...DRAG/KRUZDLO 850A
MARINE...DRAG/KRUZDLO 850A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
1004 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...CENTRAL CONUS TROF WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING WITH SHORTWAVES SWINGING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY. OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD DECK STILL
HOVERING AROUND 10KFT WITH SOME LOWER CUMULUS STARTING TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING AOA 4-5 KFT. THIS MORNINGS JAX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
DRY LAYER IN THE 700 TO 850 MB LATER LENDING TO A LOW PWAT OF 1.14
INCHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS LATE
MORNING...TURNING THE MORNING PARADIGM OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA
INTO A INTERMIXING OF LIGHT RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE UPSTREAM SOUNDING AT TAMPA WAS 1.57
INCHES. THE HRRR DOES DEPICT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME EMBEDDED BUT STILL SPOTTY MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVELS BECOME MORE SATURATED.
&&
.AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN A STEADY PERIOD OF A
MORE MODERATE RAINFALL TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS IN THE 2
TO 4 FOOT RANGE. FORECAST DOES BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED
TONIGHT AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE WITH WINDS TURNING
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA WATERS. DEPENDING ON STRENGTH OF
TROUGH...WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT MAY END UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 56 48 63 33 / 60 100 100 30
SSI 57 54 61 35 / 80 100 100 50
JAX 59 56 65 33 / 90 100 100 50
SGJ 62 60 70 37 / 90 90 100 60
GNV 61 57 68 36 / 80 80 90 60
OCF 63 58 72 41 / 70 70 80 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/CORDERO/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
942 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MAINLY ADJUSTED
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH OF I75
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL INDICATION THAT ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. BUT, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
IT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO SHOWERS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THERE
ALSO SEEMS TO BE A WEAK, EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GFS IS SHOWING PWATS
WILL DROP FROM AROUND 1.6 INCHES TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES SOUTH OF
THE I75 LINE, COINCIDING WITH MODEL OUTPUT OF PRECIPITATION. SO,
HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES TAPERING TO SLIGHTS CHANCE TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014/
AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT. LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WAS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...AND SCATTERED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...CIGS
AT 4-5 KFT ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EAST
WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014/
SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EASTERLY FLOW IS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER METRO MIAMI AND FT LAUDERDALE. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. AS IT DOES...THE INCREASED CONVERGENCE
AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OVERRUNNING
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FEATURE. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY...WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA. ASSUMING BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
AS FORECAST...SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...THUS MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO REACH LOW 80S.
AFTER THE PSEUDO-WARM FRONT REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA...SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...ALTHOUGH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. PARENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
THURSDAY...QUICKLY LIFTING THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAWN
FRIDAY. SHOWER CHANCES ARE LOW WITH THIS FRONT...BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THUS...FORECAST MAXIMA FRIDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED SEVERAL
DEGREES...AND MAY EXHIBIT LITTLE DIURNAL TREND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F MOST AREAS...WITH NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA POSSIBLY REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY
APPEARS QUITE PROGRESSIVE...AND WILL HEAD OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WINDS
SHOULD TURN ONSHORE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...CURBING COOLING AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
STILL...MINIMA WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...LIKELY
RANGING FROM UPPER 40S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY CONTINUES...TO
L/M60S ACROSS METRO MIAMI AND FT LAUDERDALE.
MOISTURE RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-
ESTABLISHES. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH BACK OVER THE REGION...BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND THEN PUSH TOWARD EASTERN SEABOARD ON
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE /ARCTIC IN ORIGIN/ BEHIND
THIS FRONT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL IN SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW...FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REFLECT A RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
MARINE...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY...GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING WINDS TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING HAZARDOUS
WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT BETTER CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TODAY AND SUNDAY.
EAST WINDS TODAY OF 15-20 KTS WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS. LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED REACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 72 84 63 / 50 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 74 83 65 / 50 20 20 10
MIAMI 83 72 83 66 / 30 20 20 10
NAPLES 83 69 82 61 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
418 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A COASTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
SET UP AND WAS EVEN INLAND A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH PUSHES SEAWARD...A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL
CAUSE THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH PRECIP ALOFT STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WAS
INHIBITING MUCH RAIN AT THE SURFACE...BUT AS ISENTROP LIFT
CONTINUES TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.
THE 00Z GFS ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. MOS POPS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH TO OVER 80 IN THE NORTH. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THOSE VALUES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SHIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS SHOULD STAY HIGH IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR LIKELY POPS THERE. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL GET FULLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING ALOFT BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN COOLING WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 IN THE NORTH. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF
SOLAR INSOLATION AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY REACH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. MILD SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL KEEP MINS IN THE 60S AND
POSSIBLY BE AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THU-THU NIGHT...
AIDED BY A STRONG CONFLUENT H85-H30 FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RACE INTO THE MID
ATLC BY DAYBREAK THU...THEN UP THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NW
ATLC. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL THRU
THE DAY...PROVIDING A RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
CURRENT AIRMASS WILL REQUIRE SOME TIME TO MODIFY AS THE KTBW/KXMR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THRU THE H100-H70
LYR. DEEPER MOISTURE LURKS TO THE S AND SW...HOWEVER. THE KMFL
SOUNDING SHOWS THE AIRMASS OVER S FL NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE
H100-H60 LYR WHILE THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
OVER 90PCT BLANKETING THE WRN GOMEX.
A STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL DVLP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SW THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL TROF PLOWS INTO A
MODERATELY STRONG HI PRES RIDGE OVER SW ATLC. THE RESULTING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE U70S/M80S...ABOUT
10-15F ABV AVG...DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SFC LIFT TO KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.
HOWEVER...STRONG/SVR WX APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SE CONUS IS
DOMINATED BY A STRONG LIFTING H30-H20 JET THAT WILL PULL THE
MERIDIONAL JET DIGGING OUT OF WRN CANADA TO THE E...KEEPING ITS
ENERGY WELL N OF THE FL PENINSULA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE 560DM THICKNESS
LINE PUSHING S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS...AND
BOTH MOS OUTPUTS DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M40S NW OF I-4...M/U50S SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THIS WOULD REPRESENT A 24HR TEMP SWING BTWN
25-30F.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...
STRONG POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WILL PUSH A DRY/STABLE ACRS
CENTRAL FL. DESPITE MSUNNY SKIES...A DEEP N/NWRLY FLOW WILL GENERATE
A COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SOLID 10-15F
BLO AVG...L/M50S N OF I-4 AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST. THE COOL AIR
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY FRI NIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE AND BEGIN TO
PUSH WARM OCEAN AIR BACK ONSHORE...MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U40S OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL BE NEAR AVG...M/U50S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG.
SAT-MON...
PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM HOLDS ON TO A STRONG ZONAL COMPONENT. POST
FRONTAL RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE W ATLC ON SAT AND GRADAULLY
WEAKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE E ON SAT...THEN TO THE SE ON
SUN. WX PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN DRY THRU THE DAY ON SAT AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW STEADILY MODIFIES THE DRY AIR...BUT WILL NEED TO REINTRODUCE
POPS BACK TO THE FCST SAT NIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE...PUSHING
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FL STRAITS BACK TO THE N AS A
WARM FRONT.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WARM FRONT
STALLS ACRS CENTRAL FL AHEAD OF A NEW COLD FRONT FCST TO PUSH INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH ON SUN...THEN THRU CENTRAL FL ON MON. DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...THE WARM S/SERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS BACK UP ABV AVG TO START THE WEEK. MINS IN THE M50S/L60S
INTERIOR...L/M60S ALONG THE COAST. MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S/M80S ON
SUN...DROPPING BACK INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE ON MON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.
ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL FL BEHIND THIS NEW FRONT WITH PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR N OF I-4 DROPPING INTO THE M30S...M/U40S TREASURE COAST.
GFS MOS IS 5-10F WARMER ACRS THE BOARD WITH MINS NEAR CLIMO AVG.
HOWEVER...THE 01/00Z GFS RUN DID TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
ECMWF...IF ONLY BY A FEW DEGS. STAY TUNED...
&&
.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY UP THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF RAIN WITH LOW
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY KISM-KMCO-KTIX
NORTHWARD. MOS HAS CEILINGS THERE A LITTLE BELOW 1000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND BELOW 500 FEET TONIGHT. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THERE TOO OVERNIGHT. WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WARM FRONT NEAR THE KMLB-KSUA CORRIDOR...THE PRECIP MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
WITH A CHANCE THEY COULD BE AS LOW AS FL015...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER POOR FOR BOATING. WITH RESPECT
TO WINDS...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW SEAWARD OF A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS. RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...NORTHEAST WINDS MIGHT
BE IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIP...RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. SOUTH
OF THERE...THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY MOIST AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH JUST A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SEBASTIAN INLET TO
CANAVERAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THU-THU NIGHT...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. A FRESH TO STRONG SRLY BREEZE WILL
VEER TO THE SW BY LATE AFTN AS A BROAD STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...THEN TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS ITS
COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FL...NMRS SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRAS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT
WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS BLO 7FT THRU THE DAY BUT ALSO WILL GENERATE
ROUGH WIND CHOP WITHIN SIGHT OF SHORE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET AS WIND VEER TO THE NW.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO LCL CONDITIONS AS A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND KEEPS THE COLD FRONT SUPPRESSED OVER
THE FL STRAITS. MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...VEERING TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND AND SRLY
GULFSTREAM COMPONENTS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS BTWN 6-8FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-9FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE WEEKEND AND VEER TO THE E ON SAT...THEN
TO THE SE ON SUN AS THE HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC AND
WEAKENS. THE SE BREEZE WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONT BACK INTO
CENTRAL FL AS A WARM FRONT...RAISING THE PROSPECT OF ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. ERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE E FL COAST THRU
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 4-6FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
RANGE OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JAN 2:
DAB 82 SET IN 2006
MCO 86 SET IN 1924
MLB 85 SET IN 1939
VRB 86 SET IN 1996
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 63 78 44 / 80 70 70 40
MCO 75 62 81 47 / 70 60 70 40
MLB 77 67 82 52 / 60 50 50 40
VRB 80 69 82 57 / 60 40 40 40
LEE 70 60 79 41 / 70 70 70 40
SFB 73 63 80 46 / 70 60 70 40
ORL 73 63 80 46 / 70 60 70 40
FPR 79 67 82 58 / 60 40 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A COASTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
SET UP AND WAS EVEN INLAND A LITTLE IN THE SOUTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH PUSHES SEAWARD...A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL
CAUSE THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS ALREADY EVIDENT WITH PRECIP ALOFT STREAMING
ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER WAS
INHIBITING MUCH RAIN AT THE SURFACE...BUT AS ISENTROP LIFT
CONTINUES TODAY THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF.
THE 00Z GFS ALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LOCAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. MOS POPS TODAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT IN THE
SOUTH TO OVER 80 IN THE NORTH. HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THOSE VALUES.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SHIFT THE WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA. POPS SHOULD STAY HIGH IN THE NORTH ESPECIALLY
FOR THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR LIKELY POPS THERE. SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL GET FULLY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING ALOFT BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN COOLING WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO STRUGGLE
TO REACH 70 IN THE NORTH. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BRIEF
SOLAR INSOLATION AND ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY REACH TO AROUND 80
DEGREES. MILD SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT WILL KEEP MINS IN THE 60S AND
POSSIBLY BE AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THU-THU NIGHT...
AIDED BY A STRONG CONFLUENT H85-H30 FLOW OVER THE ERN CONUS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL RACE INTO THE MID
ATLC BY DAYBREAK THU...THEN UP THE ERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE NW
ATLC. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL THRU
THE DAY...PROVIDING A RESPECTABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
CURRENT AIRMASS WILL REQUIRE SOME TIME TO MODIFY AS THE KTBW/KXMR
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THRU THE H100-H70
LYR. DEEPER MOISTURE LURKS TO THE S AND SW...HOWEVER. THE KMFL
SOUNDING SHOWS THE AIRMASS OVER S FL NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE
H100-H60 LYR WHILE THE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
OVER 90PCT BLANKETING THE WRN GOMEX.
A STRONG SRLY FLOW WILL DVLP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO THE SW THRU THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL TROF PLOWS INTO A
MODERATELY STRONG HI PRES RIDGE OVER SW ATLC. THE RESULTING WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS INTO THE U70S/M80S...ABOUT
10-15F ABV AVG...DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SFC LIFT TO KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED IN THE FCST.
HOWEVER...STRONG/SVR WX APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE SE CONUS IS
DOMINATED BY A STRONG LIFTING H30-H20 JET THAT WILL PULL THE
MERIDIONAL JET DIGGING OUT OF WRN CANADA TO THE E...KEEPING ITS
ENERGY WELL N OF THE FL PENINSULA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE 560DM THICKNESS
LINE PUSHING S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE EARLY MORNING HRS...AND
BOTH MOS OUTPUTS DROP TEMPS INTO THE L/M40S NW OF I-4...M/U50S SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THIS WOULD REPRESENT A 24HR TEMP SWING BTWN
25-30F.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...
STRONG POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE WILL PUSH A DRY/STABLE ACRS
CENTRAL FL. DESPITE MSUNNY SKIES...A DEEP N/NWRLY FLOW WILL GENERATE
A COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A SOLID 10-15F
BLO AVG...L/M50S N OF I-4 AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST. THE COOL AIR
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY FRI NIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE NE AND BEGIN TO
PUSH WARM OCEAN AIR BACK ONSHORE...MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U40S OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL BE NEAR AVG...M/U50S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV AVG.
SAT-MON...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
SLOWLY UP THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF RAIN WITH LOW
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY KISM-KMCO-KTIX
NORTHWARD. MOS HAS CEILINGS THERE A LITTLE BELOW 1000 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON AND BELOW 500 FEET TONIGHT. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
TO HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THERE TOO OVERNIGHT. WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH/WARM FRONT NEAR THE KMLB-KSUA CORRIDOR...THE PRECIP MAY BE
A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE BUT STILL EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
WITH A CHANCE THEY COULD BE AS LOW AS FL015...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER POOR FOR BOATING. WITH RESPECT
TO WINDS...EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW SEAWARD OF A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS. RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...NORTHEAST WINDS MIGHT
BE IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIP...RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. SOUTH
OF THERE...THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY MOIST AND SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH JUST A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT SEBASTIAN INLET TO
CANAVERAL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THU-THU NIGHT...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. A FRESH TO STRONG SRLY BREEZE WILL
VEER TO THE SW BY LATE AFTN AS A BROAD STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE
ERN SEABOARD...THEN TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS ITS
COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FL...NMRS SHRAS AND ISOLD TSRAS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT
WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS BLO 7FT THRU THE DAY BUT ALSO WILL GENERATE
ROUGH WIND CHOP WITHIN SIGHT OF SHORE. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE AFT SUNSET AS WIND VEER TO THE NW.
FRI-FRI NIGHT...
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT TO LCL CONDITIONS AS A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND KEEPS THE COLD FRONT SUPPRESSED OVER
THE FL STRAITS. MODERATE TO FRESH NRLY BREEZE THRU THE
DAY...VEERING TO NE OVERNIGHT. THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND AND SRLY
GULFSTREAM COMPONENTS WILL GENERATE ROUGH SEAS BTWN 6-8FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-9FT OFFSHORE.
SAT-SUN...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THRU THE WEEKEND AND VEER TO THE E ON SAT...THEN
TO THE SE ON SUN AS THE HI PRES RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC AND
WEAKENS. THE SE BREEZE WILL PUSH THE STALLED FRONT BACK INTO
CENTRAL FL AS A WARM FRONT...RAISING THE PROSPECT OF ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. ERLY SWELLS WILL IMPACT THE E FL COAST THRU
THE WEEKEND...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 4-6FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT
RANGE OFFSHORE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR JAN 2:
DAB 82 SET IN 2006
MCO 86 SET IN 1924
MLB 85 SET IN 1939
VRB 86 SET IN 1996
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 63 78 44 / 80 70 70 40
MCO 75 62 81 47 / 70 60 70 40
MLB 77 67 82 52 / 60 50 50 40
VRB 80 69 82 57 / 60 40 40 40
LEE 70 60 79 41 / 70 70 70 40
SFB 73 63 80 46 / 70 60 70 40
ORL 73 63 80 46 / 70 60 70 40
FPR 79 67 82 58 / 60 40 40 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC
AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW IN
ITS WAKE AND LINGER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OVERVIEW...THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. A NUMBER OF
HAZARDS/IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...COLDEST INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING PUDDLES IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS COULD FREEZE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
BLACK ICE...BUT THINK THIS THREAT IS FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE
GROUND SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WINDY CONDITIONS
ENSUE AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. MADE MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO TAKE
CURRENT TRENDS INTO ACCOUNT.
WINDS...IMPRESSIVE POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC RISES ARE STEADILY
INCREASING WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. SURFACE WINDS ARE RESPONDING
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH. AUGUSTA REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 43 MPH AT 859 PM. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING
PRESSURE RISES...AND EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TO SEE
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH OVERNIGHT. RECENTLY
EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS
A SECONDARY PRESSURE RISE MAX IS MATURING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THIS WAS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES AND
POWERLINES...THUS THE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR BOTH WINDS AND
IMPACT.
LAKE WINDS...LATEST H3R WIND PROGS SUGGEST WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA /30-35 KT/ ON LAKE MOULTRIE FROM
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL VERY CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
NOW...BUT ONE MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT. WILL CAP
WINDS AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WITH WAVES 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
WIND CHILLS...BREEZE TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15-20
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS WELL
ABOVE OUR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 DEGREES...ANYONE
VENTURING OUTDOORS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
BITING COLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY CROSS OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS BREEZY WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES AT SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN THE 30 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY PUSH TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
NUMERICAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INITIALLY OVER
THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ONCE THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES FURTHER AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SURGES FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY...YET PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REFLECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S INLAND...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED...TO
THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH
SUBSEQUENT WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-COLD FRONTAL COMPRESSION
SUPPORTING A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL GAP BETWEEN WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND COLD FRONTAL RAIN MORE
TOWARD THE EVENING TIME FRAME. HAVE TRIED TO REPRESENT THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE POP GRADIENT...WHILE MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
MORNING...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES. ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT...AND THE
DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER AND MORE LIKE THE GFS. THIS SEEMS
QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND I HAVE DIMINISHED POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE DAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL
BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AS SUCH...I HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH LOW 20S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 20S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KSAV AND WILL CLEAR KCHS BY 00Z. IT WILL
TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STEADY CLEARING OCCURS...BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 02-03Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A NEARBY
COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN FORCE TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INDUCE FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...7-10
FT OFFSHORE. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS IMPRESSIVE MIXING PROFILES
COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH DOWN THE WANDO AND COOPER
RIVERS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD 2-4 FT...HIGHEST NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
DANGEROUS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST COLD ADVECTION MAINTAINS
STRONG NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW. THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A STEADY WEAKENING OF
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AND/OR PUSH ONSHORE SUNDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACCORDINGLY...YET QUICKLY DETERIORATE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ANOTHER SMALL WINDOW FOR GALE CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY WITH THIS NEXT FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
LOW TIDE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL BLOW OUT TIDE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
-2.0 TO -3.0 FT MLLW...WHICH COULD EASILY CAUSE SOME NAVIGATION
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS NEAR THE COAST. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS OFFICE DOES NOT ISSUE LOW WATER ADVISORIES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-
114>119-137>141.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
759 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AND LINGER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT GOING TRENDS...MAINLY
TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS AND DENSE FOG FROM THE FORECAST.
OVERVIEW...THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE. A NUMBER OF HAZARDS/IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...COLDEST INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING PUDDLES IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS COULD FREEZE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
BLACK ICE...BUT THINK THIS THREAT IS FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE
GROUND SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WINDY CONDITIONS
ENSUE AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
WINDS...IMPRESSIVE POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC RISES ARE STEADILY
INCREASING WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. SURFACE WINDS ARE RESPONDING
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE
INCREASING PRESSURE RISES...AND EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
TO SEE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH OVERNIGHT.
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STATESBORO-SAVANNAH LINE WHERE 1000 HPA GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST. GIVEN AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES...THUS THE
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR BOTH WINDS AND IMPACT.
LAKE WINDS...LATEST H3R WIND PROGS SUGGEST WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA /30-35 KT/ ON LAKE MOULTRIE FROM
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL VERY CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
NOW...BUT ONE MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL CAP WINDS AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WITH WAVES 2-4
FT...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
WIND CHILLS...BREEZE TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15-20
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS WELL
ABOVE OUR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 DEGREES...ANYONE
VENTURING OUTDOORS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
BITING COLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY CROSS OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS BREEZY WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES AT SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN THE 30 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY PUSH TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
NUMERICAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INITIALLY OVER
THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ONCE THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES FURTHER AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SURGES FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY...YET PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REFLECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S INLAND...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED...TO
THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH
SUBSEQUENT WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-COLD FRONTAL COMPRESSION
SUPPORTING A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL GAP BETWEEN WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND COLD FRONTAL RAIN MORE
TOWARD THE EVENING TIME FRAME. HAVE TRIED TO REPRESENT THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE POP GRADIENT...WHILE MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
MORNING...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES. ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT...AND THE
DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER AND MORE LIKE THE GFS. THIS SEEMS
QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND I HAVE DIMINISHED POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE DAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL
BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AS SUCH...I HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH LOW 20S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 20S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KSAV AND WILL CLEAR KCHS BY 00Z. IT WILL
TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STEADY CLEARING OCCURS...BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 02-03Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A NEARBY
COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INDUCE FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...7-10
FT OFFSHORE. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS IMPRESSIVE MIXING PROFILES
COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH DOWN THE WANDO AND COOPER
RIVERS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD 2-4 FT...HIGHEST NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
DANGEROUS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST COLD ADVECTION MAINTAINS
STRONG NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW. THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A STEADY WEAKENING OF
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AND/OR PUSH ONSHORE SUNDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACCORDINGLY...YET QUICKLY DETERIORATE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ANOTHER SMALL WINDOW FOR GALE CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY WITH THIS NEXT FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL BLOW OUT TIDE CONDITIONS AND
INCREASED TIDAL DEPARTURES. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
-2.0 TO -3.0 FT MLLW...WHICH COULD EASILY CAUSE SOME NAVIGATION
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS NEAR THE COAST. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ087-088-100-101-118-
119.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
641 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH COLD DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
WITH GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE UPSTATE. FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING 15 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. SEVERAL CALLS HAVE COME IN
CONCERNING WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AROUND 7PM IN THE
WESTERN MIDLANDS AND 9 TO 10PM IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. AS THE
RAIN ENDS WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
UNTIL 4AM IN THE WESTERN MIDLANDS...5AM FOR THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
AND 6AM EASTERN MIDLANDS. ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
48 ALONG THE NC LINE...50 IN THE COLUMBIA AREA AND 52 IN THE AGS
AREA. WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF WINDY AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ON THE
RELATIVELY WARM ROADS BELIEVE THE ROADS WILL DRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. BY DAYBREAK SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 10AM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS MOVED EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN...MAINLY LIGHT...AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
LIGHT AMOUNTS...GENERALLY ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD COOL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL MOVE OFF
EAST COAST FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA BEHIND IT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SUBSIDE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 20S
NORTH TO NEAR 30 SOUTH. DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S SOUTH FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE
EXCELLENT NET RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO
MID 20S. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS
DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
TREND POPS UPWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL HAVE POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE AT THIS TIME. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MODERATE INTO
30S...ABOVE FREEZING AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT STRONG
COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN EARNEST
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES...HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND
CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY WARMING ONLY TO AROUND 40. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE
18Z HRRR AND FORECASTED MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AROUND 02Z.
IT WILL BE WINDY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND
THE LATEST GFS LAMP INDICATE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST GETS CLOSER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-
020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE AND LINGER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
OVERVIEW...THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA AND IS ON TARGET TO CLEAR THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA BY 8 PM AND COMPLETELY OFFSHORE BY 9 PM.
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT
ITSELF...MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS ENDED. A NUMBER OF
HAZARDS/IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
RAIN CHANCES...ADJUSTED POPS TO MATCH GOING RADAR TRENDS.
MAINTAINED HIGH POPS...UP TO 70 PERCENT...FOR THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA AND ALL COASTAL WATERS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS WITH
MUCH POWER POPS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BY
MID-EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...COLDEST INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LINGERING PUDDLES IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS COULD FREEZE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY
BLACK ICE...BUT THINK THIS THREAT IS FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN THE
GROUND SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT AS WINDY CONDITIONS
ENSUE AND DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 10-15 DEGREE RANGE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
WINDS...IMPRESSIVE POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC RISES ARE STEADILY
INCREASING WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. SURFACE WINDS ARE RESPONDING
WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOWING WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-35
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH THE
INCREASING PRESSURE RISES...AND EXPECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
TO SEE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH OVERNIGHT.
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STATESBORO-SAVANNAH LINE WHERE 1000 HPA GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE HIGHEST. GIVEN AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES...THUS THE
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR BOTH WINDS AND IMPACT.
LAKE WINDS...LATEST H3R WIND PROGS SUGGEST WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA /30-35 KT/ ON LAKE MOULTRIE FROM
ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL VERY CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
NOW...BUT ONE MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WILL CAP WINDS AT 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT WITH WAVES 2-4
FT...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
DENSE FOG...DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
VSBYS ARE REPORTED TO BE NEAR 1/2 MILE ALONG THE BEACHES AND IS
VERIFIED BY COASTAL WEBCAMS A FOLLY BEACH...SULLIVANS ISLAND AND
ISLE OF PALMS PRIOR TO SUNSET. ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS WIND INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
WIND CHILLS...BREEZE TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15-20
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS IS WELL
ABOVE OUR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 5 DEGREES...ANYONE
VENTURING OUTDOORS TOMORROW MORNING SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A
BITING COLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY CROSS OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WHILE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION...AS NORTHERLY FLOW
REMAINS BREEZY WITHIN A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE SUPPRESSED NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
BE DOWN AROUND 20 DEGREES AT SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN THE 30 DEGREE
RANGE THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY PUSH TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS INTO A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN. A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE PROGRESSIVE HIGH PRESSURE...WITH
NUMERICAL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT ENHANCED CONVERGENCE
WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INITIALLY OVER
THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS ONCE THE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES FURTHER AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SURGES FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY...YET PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL REFLECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING COASTAL TROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S INLAND...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE SCATTERED...TO
THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH
SUBSEQUENT WARM ADVECTION AND PRE-COLD FRONTAL COMPRESSION
SUPPORTING A BRIEF WARMING TREND INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE POSITION
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS INDICATE A POTENTIAL GAP BETWEEN WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND COLD FRONTAL RAIN MORE
TOWARD THE EVENING TIME FRAME. HAVE TRIED TO REPRESENT THIS
SCENARIO WITH THE POP GRADIENT...WHILE MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES
GENERALLY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
LAKE WINDS...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
MORNING...AS MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GUST TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING...AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES. ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE STRENGTH OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT...AND THE
DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER AND MORE LIKE THE GFS. THIS SEEMS
QUITE PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND I HAVE DIMINISHED POPS A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE A TRICKY TEMPERATURE DAY AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN
THE MORNING...FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL
BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ON TUESDAY ARE ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. AS SUCH...I HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST DOWN A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH LOW 20S INLAND RANGING TO UPPER 20S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. SIMILAR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED KSAV AND WILL CLEAR KCHS BY 00Z. IT WILL
TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE STEADY CLEARING OCCURS...BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS BY 02-03Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A NEARBY
COASTAL TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INDUCE FAVORABLE MIXING PROFILES OVER THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT OVER
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 30-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD 4-7 FT NEARSHORE...7-10
FT OFFSHORE. OPTED TO UPGRADE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS IMPRESSIVE MIXING PROFILES
COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FETCH DOWN THE WANDO AND COOPER
RIVERS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT OVERNIGHT.
WAVES WILL BUILD 2-4 FT...HIGHEST NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE.
MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT AS CONDITIONS WILL BE
DANGEROUS.
COASTAL WEBCAMS AND PILOT BOAT REPORTS INDICATE WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 1/2 NM. HAVE ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
UNTIL 8 PM...AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ROBUST COLD ADVECTION MAINTAINS
STRONG NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW. THE GRADUAL PROGRESSION OF HIGH
PRESSURE TOWARD THE EAST COAST WILL SUPPORT A STEADY WEAKENING OF
THE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SATURDAY...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AND/OR PUSH ONSHORE SUNDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACCORDINGLY...YET QUICKLY DETERIORATE AGAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE ANOTHER SMALL WINDOW FOR GALE CONDITIONS EARLY
MONDAY WITH THIS NEXT FRONT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE WILL RESULT IN IDEAL BLOW OUT TIDE CONDITIONS AND INCREASED
TIDAL DEPARTURES. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH -2.0 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...WHICH COULD EASILY CAUSE SOME NAVIGATION
PROBLEMS ON AREA WATERWAYS NEAR THE COAST. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ087-088-100-101-118-
119.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ330-350-352-354.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
439 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT RADAR INDICATING PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN CROSSING THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WAS RIDGING
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. PWAT RANGING FROM LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH NORTH TO AROUND ONE INCH SOUTH IS FORECAST TO AROUND ONE
INCH NORTH TO 1.30 INCHES SOUTH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH RAINFALL NORTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOUTH/EAST...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH GIVEN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE
CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS BUT WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM AROUND AN INCH IN
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND THE REGION WILL FALL WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 150 KT UPPER JET FURTHER SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD OMEGA OVER THE
REGION.
HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE HIGH LIKELY POPS WILL BE HELD. LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY EXPECT AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING
DRAWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE -5C TO -10C RANGE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WILL HOLD OFF ON LAKE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL MID SHIFT TONIGHT OR MORNING UPDATE THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THEN FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND THEN A
COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER REASONABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. EXISTING FORECAST WAS DRIER AND I
HAVE STARTED TRENDING TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE AS THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER FOR OUR AREA WITH PRECIP OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE LONGER TERM RANGES.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE NEXT COLD/ARCTIC FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION.
WILL INCREASE POP INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL RAISE POPS
INTO THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN
EARNEST UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING ONLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THE 17Z HRRR AND GFS LAMP SHOWED VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS TROUGH 06Z. THE GFS LAMP AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATED
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 08Z TO 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
ITS WAKE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
433 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT RADAR INDICATING PATCHES OF LIGHT
RAIN CROSSING THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WAS RIDGING
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. PWAT RANGING FROM LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH NORTH TO AROUND ONE INCH SOUTH IS FORECAST TO AROUND ONE
INCH NORTH TO 1.30 INCHES SOUTH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH RAINFALL NORTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOUTH/EAST...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH GIVEN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE
CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS BUT WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM AROUND AN INCH IN
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND THE REGION WILL FALL WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 150 KT UPPER JET FURTHER SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD OMEGA OVER THE
REGION.
HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE HIGH LIKELY POPS WILL BE HELD. LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY EXPECT AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING
DRAWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE -5C TO -10C RANGE FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WILL HOLD OFF ON LAKE WIND
ADVISORY UNTIL MID SHIFT TONIGHT OR MORNING UPDATE THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THEN FALL WELL BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY AND THEN A
COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER REASONABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. EXISTING FORECAST WAS DRIER AND I
HAVE STARTED TRENDING TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE AS THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER FOR OUR AREA WITH PRECIP OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE LONGER TERM RANGES.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE NEXT COLD/ARCTIC FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION.
WILL INCREASE POP INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL RAISE POPS
INTO THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE IN
EARNEST UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING ONLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THE 17Z HRRR AND GFS LAMP SHOWED VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS TROUGH 06Z. THE GFS LAMP AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATED
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 08Z TO 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
ITS WAKE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
417 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COLD DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT RADAR INDICATING
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WAS RIDGING
INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. PWAT RANGING FROM LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH NORTH TO AROUND ONE INCH SOUTH IS FORECAST TO AROUND ONE
INCH NORTH TO 1.30 INCHES SOUTH TONIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING.
AREAS NORTH OF MCCORMICK...COLUMBIA AND SUMTER WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH. SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSH RAINFALL NORTH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL
POPS SOUTH/EAST...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH GIVEN
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 40S ARE
CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF EVENTS BUT WILL SHOW A GRADIENT FROM AROUND AN INCH IN
THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND THE REGION WILL FALL WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 150 KT UPPER JET FURTHER SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD OMEGA OVER THE
REGION.
HAVE INCREASED POPS THURSDAY TO CATEGORICAL FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS WHERE HIGH LIKELY POPS WILL BE HELD. LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY EXPECT AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE EAST.
THE TROUGH WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING
DRAWING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE STRONG COLD ADVECTION TAKES PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE -5C TO -10C RANGE ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONG THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WILL HOLD OFF ON LAKE
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MID SHIFT TONIGHT OR MORNING UPDATE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S WITH PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY THEN FALL
WELL BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ON FRIDAY AND THEN A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
UNDER REASONABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST WPC GUIDANCE TRENDS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT. EXISTING FORECAST WAS DRIER AND I
HAVE STARTED TRENDING TOWARD THE WPC GUIDANCE AS THE ECMWF HAS
GENERALLY PERFORMED BETTER FOR OUR AREA WITH PRECIP OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE LONGER TERM RANGES.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A RETURN FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 40S. YET ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIG
ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS DEEP POLAR VORTEX DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE NEXT COLD/ARCTIC FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION.
WILL INCREASE POP INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ON SUNDAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL RAISE POPS
INTO THE 50 TO 65 PERCENT RANGE. A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE COLD DRY AIR DOES NOT ARRIVE
IN EARNEST UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 20S. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO AROUND 20 WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WARMING ONLY INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP. THE 17Z HRRR AND GFS LAMP SHOWED VFR OR
MVFR CONDITIONS TROUGH 06Z. THE GFS LAMP AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATED
IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 08Z TO 12Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
ITS WAKE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT HAS BEEN
DROPPED. THE ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE SNOW OVER NORTHWEST IL HAS DIMINISHED AND LITTLE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE SNOW FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THE SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN SAGE SOUTH
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
JUST SENT AN UPDATED WSW AND GRIDS REMOVING EASTERN IOWA COUNTIES
FROM TONIGHTS WSW. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM DUBUQUE...JACKSON
AND CLINTON COUNTIES EAST.
THE FGEN FORCED SNOW THAT HAD BEEN ONGOING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING HAS SHIFTED EAST AND DEVELOPED FURTHER
SOUTH. SHORT RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE 00Z/RAP13 AND HRRR HAVE
CAPTURED THIS TREND AND SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL SO
TONIGHT FURTHER WEST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WHERE THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WILL PROBABLY BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HOWEVER WITH THE BANDED NATURE OF THE SNOW...THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME NARROW SWATHS OF AN INCH OR TWO ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WEDNESDAYS GRIDS INCLUDING SNOWFALL
WITH THE 00Z NAM STILL SUPPORTING A DECENT SNOW FALL CENTRAL AND
SOUTH NEW YEARS DAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
THE NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSITIONED IN THE NORTHERN 1/4
OF THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON. BY OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAMS AND
CALLS...THERE HAS BEEN ROUGHLY 1 INCH PER HOUR FALLING IN THIS AREA
SINCE AROUND NOON. FARTHER SOUTH...A STRONG STATIONARY FRONT IS
LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER...EASILY SEEN IN OBS THAT
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID TEENS IN A FEW TENS OF MILES IN
OUR SOUTH. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IS CAUSING THE SNOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE FRONT...AND THIS TYPE OF FORCING WILL ALSO DOMINATE TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 9 PM IN THE NORTH...THEN
WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH IN A WEAKENING FASHION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
LIGHTER SNOWS AFTER MID EVENING...BUT WITH 3 TO 5 ALREADY ON THE
GROUND IN THE NORTH...WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 30 TO INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDORS...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS FORCING
ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE
1 TO 2 INCHES NORTHEAST TO AN INCH OR INTO THE CENTRAL CWA.
ANOTHER...ARGUABLY STRONGER ROUND OF FRONTOGENESIS ARRIVES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY CONTINUING ALL DAY AS IS GRADUALLY
SETTLES SOUTH. THIS TOO SHOULD HAVE SNOW RATIOS OF 15 TO 20:1...AND
AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE RATHER FLUFFY. THE NAM AND GEM BOTH CARRIED
THIS IDEA IN PAST RUNS AND CURRENT...BUT IS NOW SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z
GFS...12Z ECMWF...12Z UKMET...NMM EAST...SPC WRF AND LAST HOURS OF
THE RAP RUNS. THUS...WE HAVE HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY SNOW OVER CENTRAL CWA FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
WEDNESDAY. WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 6
HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. THIS SUPPORTS ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SHOULD THE
MESOCALE MODELS BE CORRECT ON THE STRENGTH OF FORCING...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT AMOUNTS WITHIN THE BAND FROM OTTUMWA TO THE QUAD CITIES
IN THE 4 TO 7 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR TOTALS
IN THE 3 TO 4 INCH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST DRAW IN THE SAME
AIRMASS WE HAD YESTERDAY. THE WARMTH IN THE FAR SOUTH JUST IS NOT
COMING OUR WAY IN THIS FORECAST.
ERVIN
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LATEST 12Z RUN MODELS HAVE COME
AROUND WITH RESPECT TO EXTENT OF FORCING ACRS AND SOUTH OF THE CWA
WED EVENING AS UPPER VORT PIVOTS IN TROF BASE ACRS SOUTHEAST IA.
DECENT ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS RIBBON ALONG AND NORTH OF CENTRAL IL
INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS SFC FRONT...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
ANALYSIS ON 285K SFC SHOULD LAY DOWN AN ADDITIONAL 0.5 UP TO OVER AN
INCH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE DVN CWA FROM 00Z-03Z OR SO
AND WORRIED IT MAY BE MORE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT USED 17:1 OR
HIGHER LSR/S. BUT FOR NOW WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY END AT 00Z
COORDINATING WITH THE ABOVE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. THUS EVEN THE
HWY 34 CORRIDOR AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH MAY END UP WITH 1-3 INCHES BY
MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SNOWFALL LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THEN AS L/W PHASING PROCESS SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...ANOTHER BOUT OR INCOMING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO DEAL WITH...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCING OR
MAINTAINING 7-11KT WINDS INTO THU MORNING. SIDING WITH THE COOLER
MAV BUT GOING ABOVE IT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MIXING WINDS AND
LINGERING CLOUD COVER...STILL MANY SUBZERO READINGS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN DEEPER SNOWPACK...MAY NOT BE
GOING COLD ENOUGH ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. THESE COLD AMBIENT TEMPS
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY MAKE FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THU MORNING. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SLIDE MAIN SFC RIDGE AXIS ACRS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA BY 00Z FRI
MAKING FOR SOME CLOUD CLEAR OUT AS THU PROGRESSES. HIGHS ONLY TO
RECOVER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN MUCH OF THE CWA. THEN
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A NEAR RECORD COLD ARCTIC NIGHT THU NIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING AND AGAIN WILL SIDE WITH THE MUCH COLDER MAV MOS
GUIDANCE VALUES. CID MAY HAVE THE BEST CHC OF BREAKING IT/S RECORD
FOR THE 3RD OF JAN BEING -15F. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BE
DECOUPLING...EVEN 5 KT WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOLID WIND CHILL ADVISORY
AND POSSIBLE EVEN SOME WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA LATE THU NIGHT
AFTER 06Z INTO MID FRI MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ARCTIC RIDGE PROGGED TO MIGRATE OFF TO THE
EAST ON FRI WHICH WILL ALLOW RATHER ROBUST LLVL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
TO BRING ABOUT A SUBSTANTIAL SFC TEMP MODERATION. AFTER SUCH A
FRIGID START TO THE MORNING...12 HR HIGHS WILL OCCUR AT AROUND 00Z
SAT...AND 24 HR HIGHS PROBABLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRI NIGHT. THE
LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST TEMPORARY
FLATTENING FLOW PATTERN TO USHER A MORE VIGOROUS WAVE ACRS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS INTO SAT MORNING. WAA
SHIELD OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD STAY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT. DISCREPANCIES POP UP WITH THIS SYSTEM/S
SFC FROPA THROUGH THE CWA BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE 12Z ECMWF MAINTAINS
A DRY FROPA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED WETTER WITH POST FRONTAL
BAN OF SNOWS ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA SAT
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM BY EARLY SAT
EVENING. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING FOE EXPECTING THE
ECMWF TO TREND WETTER AND PRODUCE SOME PRECIP IN THE CWA. BEFORE
FROPA...MILDEST DAY IN THE PERIOD SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S IN
THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH. WOULD BE WARMER IF IT
WERE NOT FOR THE SNOWPACK. RE-ESTABLISHING L/W TROF BASE SOMEWHERE
ACRS THE MID CONUS AND PROBABLY WEST OF OF THE MS RVR VALLEY...AND
WAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE DEEP PLAINS LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY WILL BE A WINDOW TO WATCH FOR FURTHER NORTHWEST PULL OUT
PATHWAY. RIGHT NOW THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES JUST CLIP THE
FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WITH 1-2+ INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY LLVL COLD CONVEYOR WRAPPING IN AROUND THIS
FEATURE TO BRING ABOUT COLDER TEMPS AGAIN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THEN BULK OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HUGELY
NEGATIVE ANOMALY IN THEIR L/W TROF FORMATION ACRS THE UPPER AND MID
MS RVR VALLEY BY 12Z MON. SEEMS THE POLAR VORTEX GYRATING ACRS THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION REMAINS TRAPPED AND ACTING AS A TYPE OF
BLOCK FOR RIDGING OFF THE COASTS.
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE 12Z GFS HAD AN INCREDIBLY INTENSE SFC
HIGH OF 1058 MB INTO NORTH CENTRAL MT BY 12Z MON...WITH THE RIDGE
CENTER THEN MODERATING TO THE LOWER 1040S AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACRS THE REGION FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE EURO NOT QUITE
SO STRONG WITH A 1045 MB HIGH...BUT THEY BOTH ADVERTISE ARCTIC DOME
OF AIR TO SURGE ACRS THE CWA/FROPA AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. SHARPLY
DROPPING TEMPS...AND IF THE MODEL PROGGED -26C TO -28C H85 MB
AIRMASS VERIFIES AND MAKE IT ACRS THE CWA...COULD BE SOME -15 TO
-25F LOW TEMPS BY TUE MORNING IN PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA. INCREDIBLE
COLD. WILL IT MODERATE THEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS BULK OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST...OR THEY CONTINUE TO MISHANDLE SUCH
A NEG ANOMALY REGIME AND OPEN THE REGION/MIDWEST BACK TO MORE ARCTIC
DUMPS AFTER NEXT WED. ..12..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
THE SNOW OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN IOWA HAS DIMINISHED
AND LITTLE IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR CIGS THE
REST OF TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MORE
SNOW SPREADS OVER THE AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THE
LOWERS...IFR/LIFR...CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THIS
WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS WITH CONDITIONS AT KMLI AND KBRL
DETERIORATING TO IFR AND LIFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WHITESIDE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2014
...Updated for Aviation...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
Water vapor loop during the overnight hours showed a digging
shortwave trough across eastern Wyoming...reaching northern Colorado
as of 09Z. This shortwave trough encompassed a much larger scale
gyre that was centered over southeastern Hudson Bay. In the lower
troposphere, temperatures were fairly mild on the High Plains with
850mb temperatures from +8 to +10C. Meanwhile, the very sharp
baroclinic zone at 850mb was found from northeastern Montana through
northeastern Nebraska per 00Z RAOB and RAP analysis. Surface
temperatures across Nebraska on the 09Z analysis ranged from 35F at
Scottsbluff to +8F at O`Neill on the other side of the front. Below
zero temperatures (degF) were not too far away into southeastern
South Dakota.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
There seems to be enough of a signal in the most recent mesoscale
model solutions to bump up snowfall amounts in the northeast
counties (northeast of a Scott City to Jetmore to Pratt line). A
look at the 03Z run of the SREF Plumes for Hays indicates a mean
of all perturbations just under 2 inches. However, much of that is
influenced by the seemingly wet WRF-ARW core. The WRF-ARW
perturbations are clustered between 3 and 4 inches at Hays. While
we do not necessarily believe total snowfall will be quite that
high given the fast speed of the system, some brief moderate-high
snowfall rates as the 700mb zone of frontogenesis passes would
argue for at least an inch or two of final snowfall. As a result,
we have bumped up the snowfall just a bit to around an inch and a
half along I-70... and the half inch line down to roughly Scott
City-Jetmore-Pratt line. With the increased snowfall forecast, we
will have to think more about the blowing and drifting potential
as 18 to 22 knot sustained winds will add to reduced visibility
for a few hours this afternoon. We will hold off on issuing a
winter weather advisory with sub-two inch forecast amounts, but it
is something that the incoming day shift will need to monitor
closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
As mentioned in the synopsis section, a sharp baroclinic zone was
found across Nebraska. As the mid-level shortwave trough moves
southeast into western Kansas today, some of this arctic air
residing in central Nebraska will advect southward on
northeast...and eventually due north winds. The problem in the
forecast for today is just how far southwest this arctic airmass
will reach. North-northwest winds at the surface near the Colorado
border will not be advecting in much of that arctic air at all (It
was still 31F in Douglas, WY and 35F in Scottsbluff, NE as of
09Z!). We foresee a fairly sharp temperature gradient across
western Kansas today. There is a rather high degree of uncertainty
in the temperature forecast west of Highway 283. The official
forecast will call for steady or falling temperatures through the
day northeast of roughly Dighton to Dodge City to Pratt. Northeast
of this line, there is a fairly high degree of confidence in the
temperature forecast...and that it will be very cold with
temperatures falling through the 20s...and into the mid to upper
teens potentially at Hays. Then there is the
Elkhart-Johnson-Syracuse corridor. This area, if they see any of
this arctic air at all, will be later in the day. This will allow
the Colorado border areas to warm well into the upper 30s to lower
40s. By early to mid afternoon, we could very well see a 30-degree
temperature gradient from southwest to northeast across the DDC
forecast area (from Elkhart to Hays).
Now on to the snow. Nothing much has really changed from previous
forecast thinking. The shortwave trough will be zipping southeast
quickly today, and there will only be a 2 to 4 hour period of light
to briefly moderate snow across the far northeastern zones (most
particularly, Hays-Victoria)...along the zone of strongest 700mb
frontogenesis. The best of this frontogenetic response at 700mb will
be just northeast of the DDC forecast area (across north-central
Kansas) as is indicated by the latest NAM12 and WRF runs. There
could be a brief period of some showery type snow along the Scott
City to Dodge City to Pratt corridor from midday to late afternoon
as a pocket of very slight potential instability develops in the mid
levels right near the 400-500mb potential vorticity anomaly. This
could put down a quickly quarter to half inch of snow in some
scattered spots along the Scott City-Dodge City-Pratt axis.
All of the snow and/or snow showers will be well east of the
southwest Kansas region by early this evening. Downslope
trajectories will resume overnight with a light westerly surface
wind developing especially along/west of Highway 83. Temperatures
should stabilize in the upper teens to lower 20s if not very slowly
rise toward 12Z. Across central Kansas, temperatures will likely
bottom out around +10F.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
A warming trend will commence Thursday and Friday as the mid to
upper level flow becomes more zonal across the Rockies, and surface
pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies. Highs should make it
into the 40s in most places Thursday as the arctic air gets shunted
into eastern Kansas given the increasing low to mid level westerly
momentum. A progressive, positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach from the northwest by Saturday, and as one would expect with
a positively tilted system, a cold surge will pass through western
Kansas ahead of the feature. In spite of the cold advection, some
light snow is possible as the trough approaches, with only minor
accumulations of an inch or less expected. Then by Sunday, a lobe of
the polar vortex will rotate southeastward into the northern plains
and upper Midwest. This will provide a glancing blow of arctic air
into Kansas for Sunday night into Monday, with moderating
temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday into the 30s for highs as the
low level flow quickly becomes more westerly. The next upper
trough will approach Kansas by Wednesday and Thursday, but a lack
of deep moisture may preclude precipitation. However, if this
system is slower and more amplified, then some rain or snow would
be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
A mesoscale band of moderate snow associated with an upper level
shortwave trough will quickly move across southwest and south
central Kansas this afternoon, then end before 21-23Z. Cigs may
drop to IFR conditions especially in the KHYS area where around 2
inches of snow is forecast. Winds of 20-30kt with the snow band
may have some reduced visibilities. Cigs improve rapidly behind
the snow band with MVFR to VFR conditions overnight and winds
decreasing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 16 44 21 / 60 10 0 0
GCK 31 18 45 20 / 30 10 0 0
EHA 46 21 49 26 / 30 10 0 0
LBL 39 21 47 26 / 40 10 0 0
HYS 20 11 36 17 / 100 10 0 0
P28 34 17 39 19 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Umscheid
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2014
...Updated for aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
Water vapor loop during the overnight hours showed a digging
shortwave trough across eastern Wyoming...reaching northern Colorado
as of 09Z. This shortwave trough encompassed a much larger scale
gyre that was centered over southeastern Hudson Bay. In the lower
troposphere, temperatures were fairly mild on the High Plains with
850mb temperatures from +8 to +10C. Meanwhile, the very sharp
baroclinic zone at 850mb was found from northeastern Montana through
northeastern Nebraska per 00Z RAOB and RAP analysis. Surface
temperatures across Nebraska on the 09Z analysis ranged from 35F at
Scottsbluff to +8F at O`Neill on the other side of the front. Below
zero temperatures (degF) were not too far away into southeastern
South Dakota.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
There seems to be enough of a signal in the most recent mesoscale
model solutions to bump up snowfall amounts in the northeast
counties (northeast of a Scott City to Jetmore to Pratt line). A
look at the 03Z run of the SREF Plumes for Hays indicates a mean
of all perturbations just under 2 inches. However, much of that is
influenced by the seemingly wet WRF-ARW core. The WRF-ARW
perturbations are clustered between 3 and 4 inches at Hays. While
we do not necessarily believe total snowfall will be quite that
high given the fast speed of the system, some brief moderate-high
snowfall rates as the 700mb zone of frontogenesis passes would
argue for at least an inch or two of final snowfall. As a result,
we have bumped up the snowfall just a bit to around an inch and a
half along I-70... and the half inch line down to roughly Scott
City-Jetmore-Pratt line. With the increased snowfall forecast, we
will have to think more about the blowing and drifting potential
as 18 to 22 knot sustained winds will add to reduced visibility
for a few hours this afternoon. We will hold off on issuing a
winter weather advisory with sub-two inch forecast amounts, but it
is something that the incoming day shift will need to monitor
closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
As mentioned in the synopsis section, a sharp baroclinic zone was
found across Nebraska. As the mid-level shortwave trough moves
southeast into western Kansas today, some of this arctic air
residing in central Nebraska will advect southward on
northeast...and eventually due north winds. The problem in the
forecast for today is just how far southwest this arctic airmass
will reach. North-northwest winds at the surface near the Colorado
border will not be advecting in much of that arctic air at all (It
was still 31F in Douglas, WY and 35F in Scottsbluff, NE as of
09Z!). We foresee a fairly sharp temperature gradient across
western Kansas today. There is a rather high degree of uncertainty
in the temperature forecast west of Highway 283. The official
forecast will call for steady or falling temperatures through the
day northeast of roughly Dighton to Dodge City to Pratt. Northeast
of this line, there is a fairly high degree of confidence in the
temperature forecast...and that it will be very cold with
temperatures falling through the 20s...and into the mid to upper
teens potentially at Hays. Then there is the
Elkhart-Johnson-Syracuse corridor. This area, if they see any of
this arctic air at all, will be later in the day. This will allow
the Colorado border areas to warm well into the upper 30s to lower
40s. By early to mid afternoon, we could very well see a 30-degree
temperature gradient from southwest to northeast across the DDC
forecast area (from Elkhart to Hays).
Now on to the snow. Nothing much has really changed from previous
forecast thinking. The shortwave trough will be zipping southeast
quickly today, and there will only be a 2 to 4 hour period of light
to briefly moderate snow across the far northeastern zones (most
particularly, Hays-Victoria)...along the zone of strongest 700mb
frontogenesis. The best of this frontogenetic response at 700mb will
be just northeast of the DDC forecast area (across north-central
Kansas) as is indicated by the latest NAM12 and WRF runs. There
could be a brief period of some showery type snow along the Scott
City to Dodge City to Pratt corridor from midday to late afternoon
as a pocket of very slight potential instability develops in the mid
levels right near the 400-500mb potential vorticity anomaly. This
could put down a quickly quarter to half inch of snow in some
scattered spots along the Scott City-Dodge City-Pratt axis.
All of the snow and/or snow showers will be well east of the
southwest Kansas region by early this evening. Downslope
trajectories will resume overnight with a light westerly surface
wind developing especially along/west of Highway 83. Temperatures
should stabilize in the upper teens to lower 20s if not very slowly
rise toward 12Z. Across central Kansas, temperatures will likely
bottom out around +10F.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
A warming trend will commence Thursday and Friday as the mid to
upper level flow becomes more zonal across the Rockies, and surface
pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies. Highs should make it
into the 40s in most places Thursday as the arctic air gets shunted
into eastern Kansas given the increasing low to mid level westerly
momentum. A progressive, positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach from the northwest by Saturday, and as one would expect with
a positively tilted system, a cold surge will pass through western
Kansas ahead of the feature. In spite of the cold advection, some
light snow is possible as the trough approaches, with only minor
accumulations of an inch or less expected. Then by Sunday, a lobe of
the polar vortex will rotate southeastward into the northern plains
and upper midwest. This will provide a glancing blow of arctic air
into Kansas for Sunday night into Monday, with moderating
temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday into the 30s for highs as the
low level flow quickly becomes more westerly. The next upper
trough will approach Kansas by Wednesday and Thursday, but a lack
of deep moisture may preclude precipitation. However, if this
system is slower and more amplified, then some rain or snow would
be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
A cold front will pass across the TAF sites this morning. MVFR
CIGS will develop well behind the front by late morning and early
afternoon. Light snow is expected to develop at KHYS by 18z and
persist for a few hours as an upper level disturbance passes, with
visbys falling to IFR or MVFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 16 38 19 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 31 18 41 18 / 30 10 0 0
EHA 46 21 47 24 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 39 21 45 24 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 20 11 33 15 / 80 10 0 0
P28 30 17 36 17 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Umscheid
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
512 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2014
...Update to snowfall forecast...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
Water vapor loop during the overnight hours showed a digging
shortwave trough across eastern Wyoming...reaching northern Colorado
as of 09Z. This shortwave trough encompassed a much larger scale
gyre that was centered over southeastern Hudson Bay. In the lower
troposphere, temperatures were fairly mild on the High Plains with
850mb temperatures from +8 to +10C. Meanwhile, the very sharp
baroclinic zone at 850mb was found from northeastern Montana through
northeastern Nebraska per 00Z RAOB and RAP analysis. Surface
temperatures across Nebraska on the 09Z analysis ranged from 35F at
Scottsbluff to +8F at O`Neill on the other side of the front. Below
zero temperatures (degF) were not too far away into southeastern
South Dakota.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
There seems to be enough of a signal in the most recent mesoscale
model solutions to bump up snowfall amounts in the northeast
counties (northeast of a Scott City to Jetmore to Pratt line). A
look at the 03Z run of the SREF Plumes for Hays indicates a mean
of all perturbations just under 2 inches. However, much of that is
influenced by the seemingly wet WRF-ARW core. The WRF-ARW
perturbations are clustered between 3 and 4 inches at Hays. While
we do not necessarily believe total snowfall will be quite that
high given the fast speed of the system, some brief moderate-high
snowfall rates as the 700mb zone of frontogenesis passes would
argue for at least an inch or two of final snowfall. As a result,
we have bumped up the snowfall just a bit to around an inch and a
half along I-70... and the half inch line down to roughly Scott
City-Jetmore-Pratt line. With the increased snowfall forecast, we
will have to think more about the blowing and drifting potential
as 18 to 22 knot sustained winds will add to reduced visibility
for a few hours this afternoon. We will hold off on issuing a
winter weather advisory with sub-two inch forecast amounts, but it
is something that the incoming day shift will need to monitor
closely.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
As mentioned in the synopsis section, a sharp baroclinic zone was
found across Nebraska. As the mid-level shortwave trough moves
southeast into western Kansas today, some of this arctic air
residing in central Nebraska will advect southward on
northeast...and eventually due north winds. The problem in the
forecast for today is just how far southwest this arctic airmass
will reach. North-northwest winds at the surface near the Colorado
border will not be advecting in much of that arctic air at all (It
was still 31F in Douglas, WY and 35F in Scottsbluff, NE as of
09Z!). We foresee a fairly sharp temperature gradient across
western Kansas today. There is a rather high degree of uncertainty
in the temperature forecast west of Highway 283. The official
forecast will call for steady or falling temperatures through the
day northeast of roughly Dighton to Dodge City to Pratt. Northeast
of this line, there is a fairly high degree of confidence in the
temperature forecast...and that it will be very cold with
temperatures falling through the 20s...and into the mid to upper
teens potentially at Hays. Then there is the
Elkhart-Johnson-Syracuse corridor. This area, if they see any of
this arctic air at all, will be later in the day. This will allow
the Colorado border areas to warm well into the upper 30s to lower
40s. By early to mid afternoon, we could very well see a 30-degree
temperature gradient from southwest to northeast across the DDC
forecast area (from Elkhart to Hays).
Now on to the snow. Nothing much has really changed from previous
forecast thinking. The shortwave trough will be zipping southeast
quickly today, and there will only be a 2 to 4 hour period of light
to briefly moderate snow across the far northeastern zones (most
particularly, Hays-Victoria)...along the zone of strongest 700mb
frontogenesis. The best of this frontogenetic response at 700mb will
be just northeast of the DDC forecast area (across north-central
Kansas) as is indicated by the latest NAM12 and WRF runs. There
could be a brief period of some showery type snow along the Scott
City to Dodge City to Pratt corridor from midday to late afternoon
as a pocket of very slight potential instability develops in the mid
levels right near the 400-500mb potential vorticity anomaly. This
could put down a quickly quarter to half inch of snow in some
scattered spots along the Scott City-Dodge City-Pratt axis.
All of the snow and/or snow showers will be well east of the
southwest Kansas region by early this evening. Downslope
trajectories will resume overnight with a light westerly surface
wind developing especially along/west of Highway 83. Temperatures
should stabilize in the upper teens to lower 20s if not very slowly
rise toward 12Z. Across central Kansas, temperatures will likely
bottom out around +10F.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
A warming trend will commence Thursday and Friday as the mid to
upper level flow becomes more zonal across the Rockies, and surface
pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies. Highs should make it
into the 40s in most places Thursday as the arctic air gets shunted
into eastern Kansas given the increasing low to mid level westerly
momentum. A progressive, positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach from the northwest by Saturday, and as one would expect with
a positively tilted system, a cold surge will pass through western
Kansas ahead of the feature. In spite of the cold advection, some
light snow is possible as the trough approaches, with only minor
accumulations of an inch or less expected. Then by Sunday, a lobe of
the polar vortex will rotate southeastward into the northern plains
and upper midwest. This will provide a glancing blow of arctic air
into Kansas for Sunday night into Monday, with moderating
temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday into the 30s for highs as the
low level flow quickly becomes more westerly. The next upper
trough will approach Kansas by Wednesday and Thursday, but a lack
of deep moisture may preclude precipitation. However, if this
system is slower and more amplified, then some rain or snow would
be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
The next cold front is due between 10-12Z across the DDC, GCK, HYS
terminals. Behind the front, ceilings are expected to lower into
the MVFR range at anywhere from 1000 to 2000 foot broken or
overcast. Winds will the increase late morning and into the
afternoon from the north at 20 knots sustained with higher gusts.
The snow which is forecast will be light and be confined mainly to
the HYS terminal...where we will drop the visibility to about a
mile for a few hours during the heavier snow which really should
not accumulate much over an inch, if that.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 16 44 21 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 31 18 45 20 / 30 10 0 0
EHA 46 21 49 26 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 39 21 47 26 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 20 11 34 17 / 80 10 0 0
P28 30 17 40 19 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Umscheid
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
353 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2014
...Updated for long term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
Water vapor loop during the overnight hours showed a digging
shortwave trough across eastern Wyoming...reaching northern Colorado
as of 09Z. This shortwave trough encompassed a much larger scale
gyre that was centered over southeastern Hudson Bay. In the lower
troposphere, temperatures were fairly mild on the High Plains with
850mb temperatures from +8 to +10C. Meanwhile, the very sharp
baroclinic zone at 850mb was found from northeastern Montana through
northeastern Nebraska per 00Z RAOB and RAP analysis. Surface
temperatures across Nebraska on the 09Z analysis ranged from 35F at
Scottsbluff to +8F at O`Neill on the other side of the front. Below
zero temperatures (degF) were not too far away into southeastern
South Dakota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
As mentioned in the synopsis section, a sharp baroclinic zone was
found across Nebraska. As the mid-level shortwave trough moves
southeast into western Kansas today, some of this arctic air
residing in central Nebraska will advect southward on
northeast...and eventually due north winds. The problem in the
forecast for today is just how far southwest this arctic airmass
will reach. North-northwest winds at the surface near the Colorado
border will not be advecting in much of that arctic air at all (It
was still 31F in Douglas, WY and 35F in Scottsbluff, NE as of
09Z!). We foresee a fairly sharp temperature gradient across
western Kansas today. There is a rather high degree of uncertainty
in the temperature forecast west of Highway 283. The official
forecast will call for steady or falling temperatures through the
day northeast of roughly Dighton to Dodge City to Pratt. Northeast
of this line, there is a fairly high degree of confidence in the
temperature forecast...and that it will be very cold with
temperatures falling through the 20s...and into the mid to upper
teens potentially at Hays. Then there is the
Elkhart-Johnson-Syracuse corridor. This area, if they see any of
this arctic air at all, will be later in the day. This will allow
the Colorado border areas to warm well into the upper 30s to lower
40s. By early to mid afternoon, we could very well see a 30-degree
temperature gradient from southwest to northeast across the DDC
forecast area (from Elkhart to Hays).
Now on to the snow. Nothing much has really changed from previous
forecast thinking. The shortwave trough will be zipping southeast
quickly today, and there will only be a 2 to 4 hour period of light
to briefly moderate snow across the far northeastern zones (most
particularly, Hays-Victoria)...along the zone of strongest 700mb
frontogenesis. The best of this frontogenetic response at 700mb will
be just northeast of the DDC forecast area (across north-central
Kansas) as is indicated by the latest NAM12 and WRF runs. There
could be a brief period of some showery type snow along the Scott
City to Dodge City to Pratt corridor from midday to late afternoon
as a pocket of very slight potential instability develops in the mid
levels right near the 400-500mb potential vorticity anomaly. This
could put down a quickly quarter to half inch of snow in some
scattered spots along the Scott City-Dodge City-Pratt axis.
All of the snow and/or snow showers will be well east of the
southwest Kansas region by early this evening. Downslope
trajectories will resume overnight with a light westerly surface
wind developing especially along/west of Highway 83. Temperatures
should stabilize in the upper teens to lower 20s if not very slowly
rise toward 12Z. Across central Kansas, temperatures will likely
bottom out around +10F.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
A warming trend will commence Thursday and Friday as the mid to
upper level flow becomes more zonal across the Rockies, and surface
pressures fall in the lee of the Rockies. Highs should make it
into the 40s in most places Thursday as the arctic air gets shunted
into eastern Kansas given the increasing low to mid level westerly
momentum. A progressive, positively tilted shortwave trough will
approach from the northwest by Saturday, and as one would expect with
a positively tilted system, a cold surge will pass through western
Kansas ahead of the feature. In spite of the cold advection, some
light snow is possible as the trough approaches, with only minor
accumulations of an inch or less expected. Then by Sunday, a lobe of
the polar vortex will rotate southeastward into the northern plains
and upper midwest. This will provide a glancing blow of arctic air
into Kansas for Sunday night into Monday, with moderating
temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday into the 30s for highs as the
low level flow quickly becomes more westerly. The next upper
trough will approach Kansas by Wednesday and Thursday, but a lack
of deep moisture may preclude precipitation. However, if this
system is slower and more amplified, then some rain or snow would
be possible.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
The next cold front is due between 10-12Z across the DDC, GCK, HYS
terminals. Behind the front, ceilings are expected to lower into
the MVFR range at anywhere from 1000 to 2000 foot broken or
overcast. Winds will the increase late morning and into the
afternoon from the north at 20 knots sustained with higher gusts.
The snow which is forecast will be light and be confined mainly to
the HYS terminal...where we will drop the visibility to about a
mile for a few hours during the heavier snow which really should
not accumulate much over an inch, if that.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 15 38 19 / 30 10 0 0
GCK 30 13 41 18 / 30 10 0 0
EHA 44 19 47 24 / 20 10 0 0
LBL 38 15 45 24 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 20 11 33 15 / 40 10 0 0
P28 30 15 36 17 / 30 40 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
340 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2014
...Updated synopsis and short term sections...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
Water vapor loop during the overnight hours showed a digging
shortwave trough across eastern Wyoming...reaching northern Colorado
as of 09Z. This shortwave trough encompassed a much larger scale
gyre that was centered over southeastern Hudson Bay. In the lower
troposphere, temperatures were fairly mild on the High Plains with
850mb temperatures from +8 to +10C. Meanwhile, the very sharp
baroclinic zone at 850mb was found from northeastern Montana through
northeastern Nebraska per 00Z RAOB and RAP analysis. Surface
temperatures across Nebraska on the 09Z analysis ranged from 35F at
Scottsbluff to +8F at O`Neill on the other side of the front. Below
zero temperatures (degF) were not too far away into southeastern
South Dakota.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
As mentioned in the synopsis section, a sharp baroclinic zone was
found across Nebraska. As the mid-level shortwave trough moves
southeast into western Kansas today, some of this arctic air
residing in central Nebraska will advect southward on
northeast...and eventually due north winds. The problem in the
forecast for today is just how far southwest this arctic airmass
will reach. North-northwest winds at the surface near the Colorado
border will not be advecting in much of that arctic air at all (It
was still 31F in Douglas, WY and 35F in Scottsbluff, NE as of
09Z!). We foresee a fairly sharp temperature gradient across
western Kansas today. There is a rather high degree of uncertainty
in the temperature forecast west of Highway 283. The official
forecast will call for steady or falling temperatures through the
day northeast of roughly Dighton to Dodge City to Pratt. Northeast
of this line, there is a fairly high degree of confidence in the
temperature forecast...and that it will be very cold with
temperatures falling through the 20s...and into the mid to upper
teens potentially at Hays. Then there is the
Elkhart-Johnson-Syracuse corridor. This area, if they see any of
this arctic air at all, will be later in the day. This will allow
the Colorado border areas to warm well into the upper 30s to lower
40s. By early to mid afternoon, we could very well see a 30-degree
temperature gradient from southwest to northeast across the DDC
forecast area (from Elkhart to Hays).
Now on to the snow. Nothing much has really changed from previous
forecast thinking. The shortwave trough will be zipping southeast
quickly today, and there will only be a 2 to 4 hour period of light
to briefly moderate snow across the far northeastern zones (most
particularly, Hays-Victoria)...along the zone of strongest 700mb
frontogenesis. The best of this frontogenetic response at 700mb will
be just northeast of the DDC forecast area (across north-central
Kansas) as is indicated by the latest NAM12 and WRF runs. There
could be a brief period of some showery type snow along the Scott
City to Dodge City to Pratt corridor from midday to late afternoon
as a pocket of very slight potential instability develops in the mid
levels right near the 400-500mb potential vorticity anomaly. This
could put down a quickly quarter to half inch of snow in some
scattered spots along the Scott City-Dodge City-Pratt axis.
All of the snow and/or snow showers will be well east of the
southwest Kansas region by early this evening. Downslope
trajectories will resume overnight with a light westerly surface
wind developing especially along/west of Highway 83. Temperatures
should stabilize in the upper teens to lower 20s if not very slowly
rise toward 12Z. Across central Kansas, temperatures will likely
bottom out around +10F.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
Cold frontal passages will likely repeat around Saturday with another
chance for accumulating snow, although certainty at this time is
low.
Colder temperatures were forecast for Thursday morning. This was
mainly due to the great agreement in MOS guidance from the WRF
model, ECMWF and GFS as opposed to the warmer mesoscale models. If
widespread stratus develops temperatures may be significantly
warmer, but any stratus is difficult to time. Temperatures were
warmed around 5 degrees on Friday as downslope develops near the
surface trough over extreme eastern Colorado. Afternoon highs could
approach 60 degrees judging by the warm air advection at 850 mb and
ECMWF surface temperatures.
By Saturday, another synoptic scale trough will be rapidly
amplifying across the northern and central Rockies regions. Recent
runs have differed significantly on developing snow along or behind
the surface front. The latest GFS run this morning is more in line
with the ECMWF solution which produces on the order of a tenth of an
inch of QPF in southwest Kansas. Either model might easily produce
up to an inch or two of snow where rates are the best. This
assumption is based on the fact that there is no lower tropospheric
circulation, and the precipitation will be mainly caused by mid
level lift from deformation/frontogenesis, and sufficiently cold air
to produce efficient dendritic growth. Still this morning`s ensemble
forecasts exhibited quite a large range of solutions, the majority
of which left western and central Kansas completely dry. Beyond the
weekend, another surface anticyclone will probably slide south along
the front range Monday into Tuesday. This could play out as a dry
frontal passage or even widespread stratus with weak upslope
enhanced light snow or flurries along and behind the front around
Monday as the GFS/ECMWF indicate. The higher confidence part of the
forecast is falling temperatures heading into Tuesday, when single
digit lows will probably return.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
The next cold front is due between 10-12Z across the DDC, GCK, HYS
terminals. Behind the front, ceilings are expected to lower into
the MVFR range at anywhere from 1000 to 2000 foot broken or
overcast. Winds will the increase late morning and into the
afternoon from the north at 20 knots sustained with higher gusts.
The snow which is forecast will be light and be confined mainly to
the HYS terminal...where we will drop the visibility to about a
mile for a few hours during the heavier snow which really should
not accumulate much over an inch, if that.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 16 44 21 / 20 10 0 0
GCK 31 18 45 20 / 20 10 0 0
EHA 46 21 49 26 / 10 10 0 0
LBL 39 21 47 26 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 20 11 34 17 / 80 10 0 0
P28 30 17 40 19 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1028 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 03Z STILL FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THOUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A STRONG GRADIENT MAINTAINED AS
WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION HITTING THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS...ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OF 10 TO 20
JOULES AT THE SURFACE...HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS AS SOME ISOLATED AREAS HAVE
SEEN A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS
WHERE TERRAIN HAS PROFOUND EFFECTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE ALREADY
TREACHEROUS ROADS DUE TO SNOWFALL...BLACK ICE...AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...HAS LEAD TO THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND
AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE TIER COUNTIES. ALSO CONTINUING A BIT LONGER
TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE
KEEPING THE STRONGER GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z AND BECOMING
LIGHT BY DAWN.
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLING IN WILL DROP SOME
WINDS CHILLS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP AND WSW TO
ADDRESS THESE IMPACT TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME SMALLER INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP AS WELL. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...TEMPS...WINDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SENT THEM TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOW DEEPER LOW JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH
THE TIGHT ISOBARS CROSSING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BRINGING IN THE MUCH
COLDER AIR. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND NOW HERE AT JKL. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO IT WILL BE SNOW
EVERYWHERE...IN PLACES THAT STILL ARE PRECIPITATING. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THIS POST FRONTAL SNOW AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF SNOW IS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA ON RADAR AND THIS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW 40S NEAR MIDDLESBORO TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS ARE PEGGED TO
THE TEMPERATURE IN MOST SPOTS WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOW
REPORTED AT MOST OBS SITES IN THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SHARP AND DEEP TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL THEN QUICKLY CLIMB
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE. FAST...
MOSTLY ZONAL...FLOW FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY VERY
MINOR BITS OF ENERGY FLOATING BY IN THE AIR STREAM AT MID LEVELS.
WITH NO GREAT DISTINCTION IN THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. SOME
PLACES...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW
FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE RESURGENCE AROUND
00Z AS THAT SNOW OVER INDIANA MOVES INTO OUR CWA. EVEN IN THOSE
PLACES...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS WET ROADS A THREAT TO
ICE OVER SINCE THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY STRUCTURE AND FOCUS
ON THE REFREEZE FOR WESTERN MOST PLACES THAT WILL NOT GET MUCH OF THE
UPSLOPE. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/ SQUALLS...COLD TEMPS...
AND LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD HELP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORIES PICK UP SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SNOWS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...ENDING LAST IN LOCATIONS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS TOWARD DAWN. BY THAT TIME
READINGS WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
WINDS RUNNING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN MANY SPOTS DOWN NEAR ZERO. THE QUICK EXIT
OF THE WEATHER MAKER WILL RETURN SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BUT CAA AND THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AGAIN ALONG WITH NOTICEABLE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
AGAIN LEANED ON THE SOLID CONSSHORT OR BC VERSION FOR HOURLY TEMPS...
DEWS...AND WINDS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH CONSALL AFTER THAT. AS FOR
POPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO IT NOT PICKING UP ON
UPSLOPE SNOWS VERY WELL...DRY AFTER THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH ITS QPF THAN THE GFS FOR
THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM...AND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...IS SIMILAR
IN BOTH MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THIS TIME AROUND. TOOK DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...AS THE MODELS HAVE MORE WESTERLY...AS OPPOSED
TO NORTHWESTERLY...FLOW FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BE MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN THE WEEK ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WOULD BRING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION ALOFT TO AID IN ICE CRYSTAL AND THEREFORE SNOWFLAKE
FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS...DUE TO THE GOOD
DYNAMICS...COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT. BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL
INTO THE AREA TO BEING THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS COULD CONCEIVABLE
DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 24 TO MINUS 30
RANGE...SUBZERO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SURPRISING.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL MODIFY ONLY SLIGHT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING
IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS BARELY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 DEGREES NORTH OF I-64. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS AND LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
AS WELL...AS THE COLD AIR MASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. A
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO END THE WEEK...WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 16Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
AND WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL FINALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE AREA BY 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ052-058>060-
104-106-108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-
050-051-079-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ068-069-080-
085>087-107-109>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
627 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME SMALLER INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP AS WELL. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...TEMPS...WINDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SENT THEM TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOW DEEPER LOW JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH
THE TIGHT ISOBARS CROSSING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BRINGING IN THE MUCH
COLDER AIR. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND NOW HERE AT JKL. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO IT WILL BE SNOW
EVERYWHERE...IN PLACES THAT STILL ARE PRECIPITATING. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THIS POST FRONTAL SNOW AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF SNOW IS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA ON RADAR AND THIS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW 40S NEAR MIDDLESBORO TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS ARE PEGGED TO
THE TEMPERATURE IN MOST SPOTS WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOW
REPORTED AT MOST OBS SITES IN THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SHARP AND DEEP TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL THEN QUICKLY CLIMB
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE. FAST...
MOSTLY ZONAL...FLOW FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY VERY
MINOR BITS OF ENERGY FLOATING BY IN THE AIR STREAM AT MID LEVELS.
WITH NO GREAT DISTINCTION IN THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. SOME
PLACES...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW
FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE RESURGENCE AROUND
00Z AS THAT SNOW OVER INDIANA MOVES INTO OUR CWA. EVEN IN THOSE
PLACES...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS WET ROADS A THREAT TO
ICE OVER SINCE THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY STRUCTURE AND FOCUS
ON THE REFREEZE FOR WESTERN MOST PLACES THAT WILL NOT GET MUCH OF THE
UPSLOPE. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/ SQUALLS...COLD TEMPS...
AND LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD HELP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORIES PICK UP SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SNOWS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...ENDING LAST IN LOCATIONS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS TOWARD DAWN. BY THAT TIME
READINGS WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
WINDS RUNNING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN MANY SPOTS DOWN NEAR ZERO. THE QUICK EXIT
OF THE WEATHER MAKER WILL RETURN SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BUT CAA AND THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AGAIN ALONG WITH NOTICEABLE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
AGAIN LEANED ON THE SOLID CONSSHORT OR BC VERSION FOR HOURLY TEMPS...
DEWS...AND WINDS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH CONSALL AFTER THAT. AS FOR
POPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO IT NOT PICKING UP ON
UPSLOPE SNOWS VERY WELL...DRY AFTER THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH ITS QPF THAN THE GFS FOR
THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM...AND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...IS SIMILAR
IN BOTH MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THIS TIME AROUND. TOOK DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...AS THE MODELS HAVE MORE WESTERLY...AS OPPOSED
TO NORTHWESTERLY...FLOW FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BE MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN THE WEEK ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WOULD BRING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION ALOFT TO AID IN ICE CRYSTAL AND THEREFORE SNOWFLAKE
FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS...DUE TO THE GOOD
DYNAMICS...COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT. BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL
INTO THE AREA TO BEING THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS COULD CONCEIVABLE
DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 24 TO MINUS 30
RANGE...SUBZERO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SURPRISING.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL MODIFY ONLY SLIGHT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING
IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS BARELY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 DEGREES NORTH OF I-64. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS AND LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
AS WELL...AS THE COLD AIR MASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. A
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO END THE WEEK...WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 16Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
AND WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL FINALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE AREA BY 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ052-
058>060-104-106-108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050-051-068-069-079-080-083-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ085>087-107-
109>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
858 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS THE COLD OUTBREAK EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS IN THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 0 TO
5 BELOW RANGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES BACK IN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 30
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS ASSESSING SNOW POTENTIAL
NEAR THE LAKESHORE...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE SABLE POINTS OF MASON
AND OCEANA COUNTIES. A DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND NEAR THE WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. THE LAST
SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS...AS WELL AS THE NAM...APPEAR TO BE PLACING
OR MOVING THIS FEATURE TOO FAR EAST TOWARDS THE POINTS.
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVER INLAND ZONES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VERY COLD INLAND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING
AND A LAND BREEZE THAT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING THE SNOW BAND
OFFSHORE. DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE GAYLORD OFFICE AND WE BOTH CONCUR
THAT THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. HAVE THEREFORE
TRIMMED POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER. DID NOT CHANGE THE INHERITED FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY POPS INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO CONTINUITY IN TIME AND SPACE. WIND CHILL
VALUES AND SNOWFALL ARE THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 0-5 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY THE
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE BELOW ZERO. VALUES THIS LOW HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN THIS AREA
SINCE FEB 2007. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY.
ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR... STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS... BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND MAYBE A WIND
CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE A SNOWY PERIOD OF TIME. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM NEAR THE POLE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THIS AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND
THE LOW WILL BRING THE COLD AIR... CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW. A FEW
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO RESULT IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO BUMP
UP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SMALL ICE CRYSTALS. THEREFORE THE SNOW WILL NOT
STACK UP... BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THIS SNOW AROUND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SKIES WERE CLEARING FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. THE BAND OF SNOW
OFFSHORE OF KMKG WILL APPROACH THAT SITE TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY OFFSHORE MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AROUND DAYBREAK THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO MOVE IN...MAINLY
KMKG. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR FOR THAT SITE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AT KMKG. GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND REACH GALES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA. A
SUSPECTED ICE JAM UPSTREAM IS CAUSING A SHARP RISE AT THE SMYRNA
RIVER GAUGE. THE ICE JAM ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER THAT HAS IMPACTED
EVART SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS NOW
ON A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT
EVART AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GAINING ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THOSE RIVERS THAT ICE OVER COMPLETELY WILL HAVE
A MINIMAL ICE JAM THREAT. RIVERS WITH JAGGED ICE BUILDUP ARE IN
DANGER OF EXPERIENCING JAMMING AND RAPID FLUCTUATIONS. WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR. HOPEFULLY RIVER LEVELS
WILL LOCK IN SOMEWHAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS THE COLD OUTBREAK EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS IN THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 0 TO
5 BELOW RANGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES BACK IN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 30
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS ASSESSING SNOW POTENTIAL
NEAR THE LAKESHORE...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE SABLE POINTS OF MASON
AND OCEANA COUNTIES. A DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND NEAR THE WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. THE LAST
SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS...AS WELL AS THE NAM...APPEAR TO BE PLACING
OR MOVING THIS FEATURE TOO FAR EAST TOWARDS THE POINTS.
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVER INLAND ZONES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VERY COLD INLAND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING
AND A LAND BREEZE THAT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING THE SNOW BAND
OFFSHORE. DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE GAYLORD OFFICE AND WE BOTH CONCUR
THAT THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. HAVE THEREFORE
TRIMMED POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER. DID NOT CHANGE THE INHERITED FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY POPS INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO CONTINUITY IN TIME AND SPACE. WIND CHILL
VALUES AND SNOWFALL ARE THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 0-5 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY THE
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE BELOW ZERO. VALUES THIS LOW HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN THIS AREA
SINCE FEB 2007. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY.
ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR... STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS... BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND MAYBE A WIND
CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE A SNOWY PERIOD OF TIME. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM NEAR THE POLE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THIS AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND
THE LOW WILL BRING THE COLD AIR... CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW. A FEW
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO RESULT IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO BUMP
UP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SMALL ICE CRYSTALS. THEREFORE THE SNOW WILL NOT
STACK UP... BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THIS SNOW AROUND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SKIES WERE CLEARING FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. THE BAND OF SNOW
OFFSHORE OF KMKG WILL APPROACH THAT SITE TONIGHT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY OFFSHORE MOST OF THE NIGHT AS A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AROUND DAYBREAK THE FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR THE SNOW TO MOVE IN...MAINLY
KMKG. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR FOR THAT SITE DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AT KMKG. GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 421 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN WAVES OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF A SNOW BAND THAT SHOULD PERSIST
JUST OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TO SOLID SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA DURING FRIDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA. A
SUSPECTED ICE JAM UPSTREAM IS CAUSING A SHARP RISE AT THE SMYRNA
RIVER GAUGE. THE ICE JAM ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER THAT HAS IMPACTED
EVART SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS NOW
ON A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT
EVART AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GAINING ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THOSE RIVERS THAT ICE OVER COMPLETELY WILL HAVE
A MINIMAL ICE JAM THREAT. RIVERS WITH JAGGED ICE BUILDUP ARE IN
DANGER OF EXPERIENCING JAMMING AND RAPID FLUCTUATIONS. WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR. HOPEFULLY RIVER LEVELS
WILL LOCK IN SOMEWHAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
956 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN BISMARCK WITH 0.5 INCH ACCUMULATION
AT THE OFFICE. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE HERE SO NO CHANGES. WILL UPDATE ALL
PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS MORE ROBUST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL UPDATE FLURRIES TO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW AT KBIS SO
FAR. THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. WITH
HIGHER SLR RATIOS IN THE EASTERN CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH FROM BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AREAS DOWN THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RAP MESOSCALE MODEL DEPICTS LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADD A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED AREA OF ISOLATED FLURRIES NORTH
AND WEST...AND CONTINUED FLURRIES LATER INTO THE EVENING IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL COVER IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION FROM MULTIPLE HEADLINES.
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH WIND SPEEDS.
HOWEVER...COMPARING MODELS DURING THE RECENT BLIZZARD EVENT WITH
THE FRIDAY STORM...ALONG WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FRESH SNOW
COVER...THE BALANCE TILTS TOWARD A BLIZZARD WATCH. STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH ANY CRUST THAT DEVELOPS ON
THE LOOSE SNOW DURING THE WARM-UP FRIDAY. HAVE COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WATCH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTH...LESS THAN AN INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE MAIN
TRAVEL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERMS OF A BLIZZARD WATCH ONGOING FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LIFE THREATENING WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 00Z
SATURDAY WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLY
ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN
BRISK AT 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRUTAL H85 TEMPS OF
-35C TO -37C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THAT WILL BE NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDEST CHUNK OF
AIR. THAT WOULD PUT THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA
POSSIBILITIES TO WITHIN 5 MINUTES OR LESS ON EXPOSED SKIN SURFACES.
A WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS DURING THE EXTREME COLD SNAP.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 ABOVE ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 8
ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW...AND HIGHS 15 BELOW TO
25 BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 50 TO 60 BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
AND LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT CLEAR OUT OF KBIS AND KMOT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL EXPECT THIS AREA TO TRACK SLOWLY
EAST...POSSIBLY REACHING THE JAMESTOWN AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KISN AND KDIK TONIGHT. FRIDAY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A
RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TO TAF SITES FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTH
WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
GIVEN RADAR RETURNS FROM MINOT AND SFC OBS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF ND...BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO
THE PERIOD JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM SEEM TO DO FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE GOING TRENDS...AND HAVE SOME PRECIP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TRANSITIONED TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS LATER TONIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES EAST AS THE
MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAKENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE...BUT NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WEB CAM TRENDS
FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THROUGH IN A FLURRY MENTION AFTER 03Z AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SNOW
REPORTS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND AND THE RAP AND NAM SHOW SOME WEAK QPF
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS FOR NOW. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY RISING TEMPS...ALTHOUGH
THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BE STEADY FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS AND
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF
MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW IN ALL AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
30KT TO MIX FROM THE SOUTH IN THE VALLEY...AND BLOWING SNOW IS
LIKELY WITH VSBYS DOWN TO ONE MILE AT TIMES IN OPEN COUNTRY. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE SOUTH WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH LATE...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY BY 00Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN THE FAR N/NW AFTER 21Z...WITH
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX
FROM 880MB PER THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
MIXED LAYER. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE FALLING SNOW...AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVECTING SOUTH...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AFTER 21Z FRI...MOVING INTO THE GFK AREA BY 2Z OR
SO THEN TO FARGO AFTER 3Z. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL START THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IN THE NORTH AT 21Z FRI THEN POINTS SOUTH AT 00Z
SAT IN CASE FRONT SPEEDS UP A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING WITH
30-35KT TO MIX UNTIL 18Z SAT. THEREFORE...BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
A PROBLEM IN THE VALLEY WITH LIKELY FALLING TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN ALL
AREAS ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...CONTINUED INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -35C BY SUNDAY EVENING.
COUPLE THIS WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AND 10-25MPH WINDS...LIFE
THREATENING WIND CHILLS TO 60 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE A
DANGEROUS ARCTIC OUTBREAK GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WIND
CHILLS...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING. CAUTION IS URGED BY ANYONE VENTURING OUTDOORS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
FOR MON-THU...THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING TO HOLD A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...HOWEVER APPEARS ANY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN ND
WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY. AN H500 SHORT WAVE
RIDGE THEN CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER FROM WED TO THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TO BRING MUCH WELCOMED RELIEF
TO THE FRIGID AIRMASS. TEMPS IN THE TEENS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO GUST OVER 20
KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IMPACT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL HAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VIS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND SOME FALLING
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...FALLING SNOW AT THIS
POINT MAY BE THE HEAVIEST AROUND KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KDVL LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTERWORDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERALL...TRIED TO HAVE AN
OVERALL TREND OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BUT WILL HAVE TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
826 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 827 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS MORE ROBUST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL UPDATE FLURRIES TO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW AT KBIS SO
FAR. THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. WITH
HIGHER SLR RATIOS IN THE EASTERN CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH FROM BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AREAS DOWN THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RAP MESOSCALE MODEL DEPICTS LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADD A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED AREA OF ISOLATED FLURRIES NORTH
AND WEST...AND CONTINUED FLURRIES LATER INTO THE EVENING IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL COVER IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION FROM MULTIPLE HEADLINES.
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH WIND SPEEDS.
HOWEVER...COMPARING MODELS DURING THE RECENT BLIZZARD EVENT WITH
THE FRIDAY STORM...ALONG WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FRESH SNOW
COVER...THE BALANCE TILTS TOWARD A BLIZZARD WATCH. STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH ANY CRUST THAT DEVELOPS ON
THE LOOSE SNOW DURING THE WARM-UP FRIDAY. HAVE COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WATCH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTH...LESS THAN AN INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE MAIN
TRAVEL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERMS OF A BLIZZARD WATCH ONGOING FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LIFE THREATENING WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 00Z
SATURDAY WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLY
ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN
BRISK AT 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRUTAL H85 TEMPS OF
-35C TO -37C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THAT WILL BE NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDEST CHUNK OF
AIR. THAT WOULD PUT THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA
POSSIBILITIES TO WITHIN 5 MINUTES OR LESS ON EXPOSED SKIN SURFACES.
A WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS DURING THE EXTREME COLD SNAP.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 ABOVE ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 8
ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW...AND HIGHS 15 BELOW TO
25 BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 50 TO 60 BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 827 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS JUST CLEARING OUT OF WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
AND MOVING INTO MINOT AND BISMARCK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT THIS AREA TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN AND KDIK TONIGHT. FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO TAF SITES FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
654 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RAP MESOSCALE MODEL DEPICTS LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADD A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED AREA OF ISOLATED FLURRIES NORTH
AND WEST...AND CONTINUED FLURRIES LATER INTO THE EVENING IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL COVER IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION FROM MULTIPLE HEADLINES.
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH WIND SPEEDS.
HOWEVER...COMPARING MODELS DURING THE RECENT BLIZZARD EVENT WITH
THE FRIDAY STORM...ALONG WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FRESH SNOW
COVER...THE BALANCE TILTS TOWARD A BLIZZARD WATCH. STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH ANY CRUST THAT DEVELOPS ON
THE LOOSE SNOW DURING THE WARM-UP FRIDAY. HAVE COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WATCH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTH...LESS THAN AN INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE MAIN
TRAVEL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERMS OF A BLIZZARD WATCH ONGOING FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LIFE THREATENING WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 00Z
SATURDAY WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLY
ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN
BRISK AT 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRUTAL H85 TEMPS OF
-35C TO -37C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THAT WILL BE NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDEST CHUNK OF
AIR. THAT WOULD PUT THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA
POSSIBILITIES TO WITHIN 5 MINUTES OR LESS ON EXPOSED SKIN SURFACES.
A WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS DURING THE EXTREME COLD SNAP.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 ABOVE ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 8
ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW...AND HIGHS 15 BELOW TO
25 BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 50 TO 60 BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS JUST CLEARING OUT OF WILLISTON AND DICKINSON
AND MOVING INTO MINOT AND BISMARCK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT THIS AREA TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST...POSSIBLY REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT
KISN AND KDIK TONIGHT. FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A RISK OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO TAF SITES FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
644 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THROUGH IN A FLURRY MENTION AFTER 03Z AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SNOW
REPORTS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND AND THE RAP AND NAM SHOW SOME WEAK QPF
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS FOR NOW. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY RISING TEMPS...ALTHOUGH
THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BE STEADY FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS AND
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF
MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW IN ALL AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
30KT TO MIX FROM THE SOUTH IN THE VALLEY...AND BLOWING SNOW IS
LIKELY WITH VSBYS DOWN TO ONE MILE AT TIMES IN OPEN COUNTRY. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE SOUTH WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH LATE...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY BY 00Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN THE FAR N/NW AFTER 21Z...WITH
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX
FROM 880MB PER THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
MIXED LAYER. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE FALLING SNOW...AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVECTING SOUTH...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AFTER 21Z FRI...MOVING INTO THE GFK AREA BY 2Z OR
SO THEN TO FARGO AFTER 3Z. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL START THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IN THE NORTH AT 21Z FRI THEN POINTS SOUTH AT 00Z
SAT IN CASE FRONT SPEEDS UP A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING WITH
30-35KT TO MIX UNTIL 18Z SAT. THEREFORE...BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
A PROBLEM IN THE VALLEY WITH LIKELY FALLING TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN ALL
AREAS ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...CONTINUED INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -35C BY SUNDAY EVENING.
COUPLE THIS WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AND 10-25MPH WINDS...LIFE
THREATENING WIND CHILLS TO 60 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE A
DANGEROUS ARCTIC OUTBREAK GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WIND
CHILLS...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING. CAUTION IS URGED BY ANYONE VENTURING OUTDOORS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
FOR MON-THU...THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING TO HOLD A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...HOWEVER APPEARS ANY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN ND
WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY. AN H500 SHORT WAVE
RIDGE THEN CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER FROM WED TO THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TO BRING MUCH WELCOMED RELIEF
TO THE FRIGID AIRMASS. TEMPS IN THE TEENS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO GUST OVER 20
KTS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH IMPACT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL HAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS COULD BRING SOME REDUCED VIS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AND SOME FALLING
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN SITES. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
A BIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF THE
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...FALLING SNOW AT THIS
POINT MAY BE THE HEAVIEST AROUND KGFK...KTVF...AND KBJI. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KDVL LATE IN THE PERIOD
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTERWORDS. MVFR CIGS
WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. OVERALL...TRIED TO HAVE AN
OVERALL TREND OF DETERIORATING CONDITIONS BUT WILL HAVE TO MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
130 PM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED JAN 1 2014
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO ADJUST FOR
THE 18-1930 UTC SKY TRENDS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL. THIS IS CLOSE THE 18 UTC RAP SKY COVER FORECAST INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ADDED
A MENTION OF FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE STRATUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE BANDED SNOW TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. KMOT
DROPPED TO 1 SM WITH SNOW EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND LARGE FLAKES
HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR SOME TIME IN BISMARCK. COVERAGE WAS
DETERMINED USING A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP AND
RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MY WEST. NO OTHER CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EXTENDS NORTH
INTO ALASKA...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL EMBEDDED ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF A SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAINTAINS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST NOW
THROUGH 18Z AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND AS THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DECREASING THE OVERRUNNING FLOW WITH
WINDS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND
MAY RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER SOUTH AND WESTWARD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES FROM 10 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST...SINGLE DIGITS BELOW CENTRAL...AND 10-15 BELOW EAST ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH TODAY...WARMING BY ONLY 5 DEGREES OR
SO WITH THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS POSITION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE WE SAW ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME THE PLACEMENT OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS I EXPECT
THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MY EASTERN ONE HALF TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH MORNING
LOWS ON THURSDAY 20-25 BELOW NORTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EAST.
BALMY SOUTHWEST WHERE A LOW OF ZERO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS WINDS MAY BE CALM WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS ON THE FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRIGID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN PRE-CLIPPER WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR
SNOW. 00 UTC NAM/GFS/SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WEST SUPPORT
ONLY MINIMAL MELTING ALOFT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF UP TO
0.1 INCH MEANS THAT EVEN IF IT IS ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER WILL DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -20F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THIS
COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND...SO RESULTING WIND CHILLS WILL BE
-40F TO -50F. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00 UTC ECMWF SUPPORTS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST WED JAN 1 2014
SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1001 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
ALLOWED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THIS UPDATE...AS
WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ADDED
A MENTION OF FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE STRATUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE BANDED SNOW TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. KMOT
DROPPED TO 1 SM WITH SNOW EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND LARGE FLAKES
HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR SOME TIME IN BISMARCK. COVERAGE WAS
DETERMINED USING A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP AND
RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MY WEST. NO OTHER CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EXTENDS NORTH
INTO ALASKA...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL EMBEDDED ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF A SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAINTAINS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST NOW
THROUGH 18Z AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND AS THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DECREASING THE OVERRUNNING FLOW WITH
WINDS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND
MAY RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER SOUTH AND WESTWARD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES FROM 10 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST...SINGLE DIGITS BELOW CENTRAL...AND 10-15 BELOW EAST ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH TODAY...WARMING BY ONLY 5 DEGREES OR
SO WITH THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS POSITION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE WE SAW ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME THE PLACEMENT OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS I EXPECT
THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MY EASTERN ONE HALF TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH MORNING
LOWS ON THURSDAY 20-25 BELOW NORTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EAST.
BALMY SOUTHWEST WHERE A LOW OF ZERO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS WINDS MAY BE CALM WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS ON THE FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRIGID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN PRE-CLIPPER WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR
SNOW. 00 UTC NAM/GFS/SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WEST SUPPORT
ONLY MINIMAL MELTING ALOFT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF UP TO
0.1 INCH MEANS THAT EVEN IF IT IS ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER WILL DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -20F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THIS
COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND...SO RESULTING WIND CHILLS WILL BE
-40F TO -50F. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00 UTC ECMWF SUPPORTS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
648 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND ARCTIC AIR
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND A NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY NEAR THE HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE ALASKA RIDGING MAY BREAK
DOWN AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
UPDATED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE BANDED SNOW TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD THIS MORNING. KMOT
DROPPED TO 1 SM WITH SNOW EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND LARGE FLAKES
HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR SOME TIME IN BISMARCK. COVERAGE WAS
DETERMINED USING A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP AND
RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MY WEST. NO OTHER CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EXTENDS NORTH
INTO ALASKA...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL EMBEDDED ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF A SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAINTAINS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST NOW
THROUGH 18Z AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND AS THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DECREASING THE OVERRUNNING FLOW WITH
WINDS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND
MAY RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER SOUTH AND WESTWARD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES FROM 10 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST...SINGLE DIGITS BELOW CENTRAL...AND 10-15 BELOW EAST ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH TODAY...WARMING BY ONLY 5 DEGREES OR
SO WITH THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS POSITION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE WE SAW ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME THE PLACEMENT OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS I EXPECT
THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MY EASTERN ONE HALF TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH MORNING
LOWS ON THURSDAY 20-25 BELOW NORTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EAST.
BALMY SOUTHWEST WHERE A LOW OF ZERO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS WINDS MAY BE CALM WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS ON THE FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRIGID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN PRE-CLIPPER WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR
SNOW. 00 UTC NAM/GFS/SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WEST SUPPORT
ONLY MINIMAL MELTING ALOFT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF UP TO
0.1 INCH MEANS THAT EVEN IF IT IS ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER WILL DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -20F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THIS
COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND...SO RESULTING WIND CHILLS WILL BE
-40F TO -50F. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00 UTC ECMWF SUPPORTS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
VFR TO MVFR BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING
KDIK...WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS THIS MORNING...BEFORE IMPROVING
LATER TODAY. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KDIK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 18Z. SKIES WILL TREND SCT NORTH AND EAST AFTER 06Z FOR KMOT
AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SCHECK
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
459 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND ARCTIC AIR
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND A NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY NEAR THE HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS/ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE ALASKA RIDGING MAY BREAK
DOWN AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST RAP AND
RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NORTHWEST AND
CENTRAL...EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH OVER MY WEST. NO OTHER CHANGES
WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST EXTENDS NORTH
INTO ALASKA...WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THIS RESULTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL EMBEDDED ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST OF A SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS...MAINTAINS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING...CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST NOW
THROUGH 18Z AS ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND AS THE SFC
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST DECREASING THE OVERRUNNING FLOW WITH
WINDS TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION TODAY...AND
MAY RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LINGER SOUTH AND WESTWARD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES FROM 10 ABOVE
SOUTHWEST...SINGLE DIGITS BELOW CENTRAL...AND 10-15 BELOW EAST ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH TODAY...WARMING BY ONLY 5 DEGREES OR
SO WITH THE COLD AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE STATE.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS POSITION IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS WHERE WE SAW ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WEST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME THE PLACEMENT OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THUS I EXPECT
THE SNOW TO BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN ND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IN CONTROL OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MY EASTERN ONE HALF TONIGHT COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH MORNING
LOWS ON THURSDAY 20-25 BELOW NORTHWEST...CENTRAL...AND EAST.
BALMY SOUTHWEST WHERE A LOW OF ZERO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. WIND
CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS WINDS MAY BE CALM WHERE
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY`S FORECAST IS ON THE FRIDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRIGID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHEN PRE-CLIPPER WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN OR
SNOW. 00 UTC NAM/GFS/SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WEST SUPPORT
ONLY MINIMAL MELTING ALOFT...SINCE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION
FALLS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIQUID PRECIPITATION OF UP TO
0.1 INCH MEANS THAT EVEN IF IT IS ALL SNOW...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL.
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FOLLOWING THIS CLIPPER WILL DROP LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -20F ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THIS
COLD WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND...SO RESULTING WIND CHILLS WILL BE
-40F TO -50F. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00 UTC ECMWF SUPPORTS EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
VFR TO MVFR BKN-OVC CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING
KDIK...WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CIGS AT TIME. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KDIK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SYNOPSIS...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
100 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS COMBINING WITH CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT EAST
OF A SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE FAR WESTERN
DAKOTAS TO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. INCREASED POPS AND
MAINTAINED HIGH SKY COVER THROUGH 12Z. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS REMAIN...CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST 09Z THROUGH 15Z AS
ENERGY ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST DECREASING THE OVERRUNNING FLOW.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STEADY THANKS TO AMPLE
CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF CAA. LOWS FROM 15 BELOW OVER MY
EASTERN COUNTIES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTHWEST ARE
FORECAST. THE INHERITED MIN T FORECAST REQUIRED ONLY MINIMAL
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TREND BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. UPDATED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...KEEPING
HIGHER CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM AROUND THE HARVEY AREA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH ELLENDALE THROUGH 06 UTC...THEN CHANCE POPS DIMINISHING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. IN THE WEST...KNOCKED BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
THROUGH AROUND 08 UTC. THEN BROUGHT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST FROM 08-15 UTC. LATEST RAP AND HRRR MESOSCALE MODELS
AND THE NEW 01 JAN 14 00 UTC NAM CLIP THE SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE CURRENTLY DROPPING FORM
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. WILL CANCEL THE
REMAINING PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ANY ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
THE CURRENT HAZARD ENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS AN IMPULSE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT HAS PRETTY MUCH
ENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FOR NOW. WILL UPDATE THE
WSW TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY WATFORD CITY...TROTTERS...
KILLDEER...BEACH AND DICKINSON.
ADJUSTED EVENING POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND THE 23 UTC
RAP. BRINGING HIGH CHANCE LOW QPF SNOWS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL THIS EVENING...THEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND TAPERING LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SOUTHWEST AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL.
ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS THE MAIN IDEAS
MENTIONED ABOVE REMAIN NEARLY THE SAME.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RADAR LOOP/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COUPLE MINOR SHORTWAVES UPSTREAM IN ALBERTA
AND WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTERACTING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT IN EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA EARLY
TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN
CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY. IN
DOING SO...EXPECT A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL
TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN AND FORCE THE TIGHTEST
PORTION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER SOUTHWEST. THUS WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING OVERNIGHT IN COMBINATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND WEAK FORCING...A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
EVENT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. EXPECT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION OF LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING AS SCHEDULED IN THE SOUTHWEST.
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 17Z WEDNESDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 30 BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS AGAIN WILL FOCUS ON THE ARCTIC INTRUSION FORECAST
THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODEL DIFFERENCES
EXIST...THE MAIN SCENARIO THIS WEEK WILL BE A COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...A WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS
ARCTIC FRONT...AND THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE AN ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
WITH A WARM FRONT TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. A COLD NIGHT
MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS AROUND 15 TO 25 BELOW NORTH AND
CENTRAL...WITH ZERO TO 15 BELOW SOUTHWEST.
SOME MILD AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE MOVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
FRIDAY. ON THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE AROUND ZERO
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THE WARM FRONT
WILL NUDGE INTO THE WEST AND FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 20S TO AROUND 30 ABOVE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY. RISING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ON FRIDAY THERE SHOULD BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW ELSEWHERE.
THE LEADING EDGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAISED WINDS FROM THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FIRST BATCH OF COLD
AIR WILL BE MORE MODERATE...WITH THE MODELS SAVING THE COLDEST AIR
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 15 TO 25
BELOW RANGE...WITH HIGHS MONDAY 5 TO 15 BELOW...AND LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AGAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE. WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH DANGEROUS ADVISORY AND WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - WITH THE LOWEST READINGS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LIKELY IN THE WARNING CATEGORY (-40 AND
BELOW) ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014
VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KDIK. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ002>005-
011>013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
959 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND SETTLE IN THE
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WHEN THE HIGH PASSES EAST
DURING THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE TO THE
COLD AIR THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS ON
SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
WINTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST UPDATE TONIGHT WAS ACTUALLY RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH SNOW GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE CWA FROM WNW-
TO-ESE. REPORTS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATE THAT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE RATHER POOR. THE SNOW HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
(WITH THE WARNINGS DROPPED TO ADVISORIES) IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BECAUSE AS LONG AS NEW SNOW IS COMING
DOWN...CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. AFTER 06Z...THE
SNOW SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE ILN CWA...WITH THE ADVISORIES ABLE TO
COME DOWN AFTER THAT. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY STILL BE
NEEDED IF BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS. RECENT
MODEL RUNS (00Z NAM / 01Z RAP / 00Z HRRR) HAVE ALL COME IN MUCH
COLDER WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...WELL BELOW THE 18Z GFS AND EVEN IN
LINE WITH THE 12Z RUN OF THE NOTORIOUSLY COLD CANADIAN MODEL.
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURE OBS AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SEEM TO SUGGEST
THAT THESE NEW RUNS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO CHILLY...BUT THE COMBINED
MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE FORCED A DOWNWARD MIN TEMP
ADJUSTMENT BY A COUPLE DEGREES. WITH ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE
WIND MAGNITUDE FORECAST FROM THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE...THERE WAS
NOT QUITE ENOUGH JUSTIFICATION TO EXPAND THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IT WAS CLOSE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7. NORTHERN CWA NOT IN
THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 BUT THE MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS ALREADY PAST THEM AND I WILL CANCEL THESE AT 7 AS WELL.
THE EASTERN WARNING AND SOUTHEASTERN ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL 10 AS
AN AREA OF DECENT ECHO RETURNS IS MOVING ESE INTO THESE AREAS AND
WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE THE BULK OF THE SNOW IN THIS REGION.
WIND CHILL WARNING COINCIDES WITH APPARENT TEMPS AT OR BELOW -10
AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H8 RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY AND ANY LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL GO THE WAYSIDE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO
50KT ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER MORNING LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO GET PAST THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
AGAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH KEEPS A LIGHT WIND FIELD OVER THE
REGION FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
KICK UP TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SATURDAY WILL SEE MILDER READINGS IN
THE 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM
SO HAVE GONE WITH 100 POPS. MODELS HAVE ALSO COME INTO CLOSER
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS. GFS STILL OFFERS THE COLDER
SOLUTION...SUGGESTING BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AND ALL SNOW. THE ECMWF
IS TRENDING COLDER...BUT IS STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. HEDGED
BETWEEN THE TWO AND BROUGHT A CHANGE TO RAIN UP TO I-71 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CUT INTO SNOWFALL THERE. RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BY SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS WOULD LEAD TO
HEADLINES FOR WINTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY.
SNOW WILL DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH LOWS AVERAGING ZERO. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY IN THE VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
MONDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN MANY YEARS.
UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING ARCTIC AIRMASS...AND WITH SNOW
COVER CONTRIBUTING ITS INFLUENCE...LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 15 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY UP TO 5
BELOW IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS 40 BELOW
ZERO...WELL INTO WIND CHILL HEADLINE TERRITORY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. UNDER THE FRIGID AIRMASS...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID SINGLE DIGITS ARE ANTICIPATED. ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
ON MONDAY NIGHT.
LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE TEENS ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO INCREASE...WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW STARTING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS
ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE. OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES...THE MAJORITY OF
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...THOUGH BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE (THANKS IN PART TO THE BLOWING SNOW).
OVERNIGHT...SNOW WILL COME TO AN END...AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT WELL
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT NEAR
DAYBREAK...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND THEN.
NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY GUSTY (UP TO 30 KNOTS) OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CLOSER TO MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A LULL IN WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SSW BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
SNOW (MAYBE MIXING WITH RAIN) ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ063>065-
073-074-079>082-088.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ096>100.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS/HATZOS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...HATZOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
1145 PM PST TUE DEC 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW MORE
VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND HANG WITH US THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO PASS LEVELS
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING MORE DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.LATE EVENING UPDATE...ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE LOWLANDS.
VISIBILITIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED TO BE WELL LESS THAN 1/4 NEAR
THE COLUMBIA RIVER...AND CAMERAS SHOW A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE
LOW CLOUD DECK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
OF THE INVERSION WITH THE UPPER RIDGE GETTING CLOSER. GRADIENTS ARE
NEAR NIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SUGGEST THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY GO CALM WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DENSE FOG TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD MORESO OVERNIGHT BEFORE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASE...BUT
WANTED TO GET THE HEADS UP FOR LATE NIGHT TRAVELERS THAT POCKETS OF
DENSE FOG HAVE ALREADY BEGUN. WHILE FREEZING FOG IS NOT A
WIDESPREAD CONCERN...TEMPERATURES IN CORVALLIS ARE ALREADY AT
FREEZING AND EUGENE IS CLOSE. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER FARTHER NORTH
WHERE LESS CLEARING OCCURRED BEFORE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND WHERE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXIST. /KMD
&&
.SHORT TERM...DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE THIS EVENING WILL CENTER AROUND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. A
MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS IS SETTLING IN ACROSS THE DISTRICT...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 40 F. SKIES HAVE MOSTLY
CLEARED SALEM SOUTHWARD WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY PROMOTE
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SUSPECT ONLY A FEW OUTLYING VALLEYS WILL
FALL BELOW FREEZING. FOG MAY BECOME RATHER DENSE OVERNIGHT IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY...LINGERING INTO NEW YEARS
MORNING.
WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ONLY SERVE TO STRENGTHEN VALLEY
INVERSIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MEANWHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECT THE VALLEY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WHICH
FORM TONIGHT TO LINGER THROUGH MOST OF NEW YEARS DAY...THEN THICKEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AREAS ABOVE THE VALLEY
INVERSIONS SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD NEW
YEARS DAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DISTRICT. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THU/FRI...SO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID.WEAGLE
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL STILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST
OREGON. HOWEVER...QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS FARTHER SOUTH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW PASS LEVELS...BUT AT THIS
POINT...INSTABILITY APPEARS IT WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...CASCADES PASSES SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO GENERALLY
DECREASE FRIDAY...BUT THE EC DOES SUGGEST INSTABILITY MAY HANG WITH
US A BIT LONGER AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPS OUR CASCADES.
/NEUMAN
.HYDROLOGY...THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE 13/14 WINTER WILL BE ON NEW
YEARS DAY. WHILE RIVERS ARE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TIDAL
ANOMALIES ARE NOTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT...THERE IS A CHANCE A FEW
ROADS ALONG THE COAST MAY HAVE AN ISSUE WITH FLOODING. THE MAIN AREA
OF CONCERN IS AROUND TILLAMOOK WHERE TILLAMOOK RIVER...FRASIER AND
BROUTON ROADS MAY BE VULNERABLE TO BRIEF FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE ON
NEW YEARS DAY. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE COAST...FOOTHILLS AND AREAS NEAR THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE TO CLEAR. THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. SKY COVER WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. A
SPLITTING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY-ISH...BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. /NEUMAN
&&
.AVIATION...VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT INTO
WED. WILL SEE MVFR OR POSSIBLY HIGH END IFR STRATUS WITH ONLY
PATCHY FOG REFORM N OF A KTMK TO KMMV TO KUAO LINE. TO SOUTH OF
THAT LINE MORE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FOG
AND IFR STRATUS TO REFORM. ANY CLOUDS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ON WED...BUT VFR NOT EXPECTED TIL AFTER 20Z. COASTAL AREA REMAIN
IN MOIST AIR MASS...SO EXPECT CONTINUED IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS
AND VIS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH CIGS 3500 TO
4500 FT. NOT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH WED AM...THOUGH WILL SEE CIGS
CLOSER 1000 TO 1500 FT FROM 08Z TO AT LEAST 18Z. WILL LIFT BACK TO
VFR CIGS WED AFTERNOON. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS
HOLDING 6 TO 7 FT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
NEXT THREAT OF ENHANCED WINDS NOT UNTIL LATER THU NIGHT AND FRI
WHEN A FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO POP
20 TO 25 KT S WINDS...WITH SEAS BUILDING BACK TO 10 FT ON FRI.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP... KEEPING CONDITIONS
RATHER BENIGN ON SAT AND SUN. RAMHARTKEY
&&
.CLIMATE...AS 2013 COMES TO A CLOSE...IT WILL GO DOWN IN THE BOOKS
AS THE DRIEST CALENDAR YEAR IN RECORDED HISTORY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE
NO EXCEPTION...THE 21.19 INCHES OF RAIN RECORDED THIS YEAR IN EUGENE
WILL BREAK THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY MORE THAN 2 INCHES. IMPRESSIVE
CONSIDERING RECORDS FOR EUGENE GO ALL THE WAY BACK TO 1890.
SALEM...ANOTHER SITE WITH RECORDS DATING BACK TO THE LATE 19TH
CENTURY...WILL ALSO SEE 2013 GO DOWN AS THEIR DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD.
ANOTHER ODDITY OF 2013 IS THAT SEPTEMBER WAS THE WETTEST MONTH OF
THE YEAR FOR ALL OF OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES. NORMALLY SEPTEMBER IS
ONE OF THE 4 DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON.
A RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE HISTORIC
DRY WEATHER WE EXPERIENCED IN 2013.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL. I AM SURE MANY PEOPLE ALONG THE WEST COAST
ARE WISHING FOR MORE RAIN IN 2014...AND THE ODDS ARE HIGHLY IN THEIR
FAVOR.WEAGLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PORTLAND METRO
AREA THROUGH 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE GREATER VANCOUVER METRO AREA THROUGH
10 AM WEDNESDAY.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
2 AM TO 6 AM PST WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT..
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
807 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MESOSCALE BANDING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW OVER MY
FAR SERN ZONES. DECIDED TO ISSUE THE WARNING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND SPOTTER REPORTS.
REST FROM PREVIOUS...
THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING US OUR
SNOW SEEMS TO BE COAGULATING INTO A SINGLE CENTER DOWN OVER
EASTERN NC/VA WHERE PRESSURES ARE FALLING MOST RAPIDLY. LOCALLY WE
SEEM TO BE SEEING SOME DRY SLOTTING SHOOTING UP FROM WV INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LIGHTER SNOWS FROM
AOO-JST-UNV NORTHWESTWARD.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONFINED TO MY SERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING PORTRAYED BY THE RUC ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS FORCING TO BE PRETTY MUCH
AT ITS PEAK...WITH ACTIVITY SLATED TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY BETWEEN
ABOUT 03-06Z. SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE LOWER SUSQ SHOW THEY HAVE
PICKED UP A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE CONCERN IS THAT THEY WILL REACH WARNING NUMBERS
BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS
POINT I STILL LIKE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE
SO AM NOT PLANNING TO UPGRADE...YET.
AS SNOW BEGINS TO DWINDLE OVERNIGHT...THE WIND WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 25MPH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SEVERAL INCHES OF THE DRY FLUFFY SNOW. IT WILL TURN FRIGID WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER THE NORTH RANGING TO MID TEENS
OVER THE SOUTH. FACTORING IN THE WIND AND CHILLS...IT WILL FEEL
WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLD...MORNING LOWS JUST BELOW
ZERO IN NORTHWEST AND LOW TEENS IN SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH 10-15KT
WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL MAKE FOR A BITTER
FEELING COLD DAY WITH A STINGING WIND. BE SURE TO BUNDLE THE KIDS
UP FOR SCHOOL.
THE WIND WILL ABATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE TOO
MUCH FRIDAY AND WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT BUT FRIDAY
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD POSSIBLY BE COLDEST
OF THE WINTER TO DATE...BUT WE ARE LOOKING AT COLDER AIR NEXT
TUESDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
***SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA JANUARY 7-8TH***
THE MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH HIGH PRES MIGRATING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. RETURN SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN RESUMES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF A DEEP VORTEX
SPINNING ALONG THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER HELPS TO
INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE LOW WITH
THE ECMWF REPRESENTING THE STRONGER AND WRN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE CMC/UKMET/SREF MEAN IN THE MIDDLE AND
GFS/GEFS WEAKER AND FURTHEST TO THE EAST. WHILE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST DETAILS SUCH AS THE TRACK WHICH WOULD
IMPACT SENSIBLE WX PTYPES...THERE IS ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PCPN THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AOA CONSENSUS MOS/RAW
MODEL BLEND TO 60-80 PCT FOR DAY 4.
ENTER THE DEEP FREEZE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE ERN U.S NEXT WEEK...DRIVING A TRUE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS IS
EXPECTED TO INVADE THE REGION FROM LATE ON DAY 5/MON NGT THRU DAY
6/TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -25 TO -35C /-3 TO -4SD/
WILL SUPPORT FRIGID/BITTER TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DAILY HI/LO DEPARTURES -20 AND -30 DEGREES BELOW EARLY JANUARY
CLIMO. THE EPICENTER OF THE COLD OUTBREAK SHOULD PEAK ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWS FROM 0F IN THE LSV TO -20F BELOW IN THE NW MTNS. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...A BLUSTERY WEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE BONE-
CHILLING ARCTIC AIR TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -40F
BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
MAKING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA A REAL CONCERN IF EXPOSED TO THE
ELEMENTS FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AND PREPARE FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE AREA SINCE
JANUARY 1994. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO START RAISING AWARENESS BY
HIGHLIGHTING THE UPCOMING COLD EPISODE BY ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE EXTREME COLD
IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SUN-MON SYSTEM
WILL BE SECONDARY TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAK. THE LLVL
FLOW BACKS MORE THE WSW AND SHOULD SHIFT LES INTO SW NY BY TUES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS FROM THE
NEAR ZERO IN THE LSV TO 10 BELOW IN THE NW...AS A 1040MB HIGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH HEAVIER BANDS NOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF PA. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING. EXPECT VSBY CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS
THAN A MILE.
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THE WINDS START TO COME AROUND FROM THE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-30KT RANGES. IN
PLACES WHERE IT SNOWS SEVERAL INCHES...BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST (KBFD) AND THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT FAST IN THE 0800 TO 1000 UTC TIME
FRAME. SKIES AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE. THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE
WINDY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK... FRI...LOWER CIGS RAPIDLY LIFTING IN SOUTH AND EAST IN MORNING.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING EWD.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ019-
025>028-034>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063-064.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
PAZ010>012-017-018-024-033.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004-005-010-
011-017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ065-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
643 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE EAST COAST. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR NEXT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING US OUR
SNOW SEEMS TO BE COAGULATING INTO A SINGLE CENTER DOWN OVER
EASTERN NC/VA WHERE PRESSURES ARE FALLING MOST RAPIDLY. LOCALLY WE
SEEM TO BE SEEING SOME DRY SLOTTING SHOOTING UP FROM WV INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA...WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE OF LIGHTER SNOWS FROM
AOO-JST-UNV NORTHWESTWARD.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS CONFINED TO MY SERN ZONES WHERE THE BEST LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING PORTRAYED BY THE RUC ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. THE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS FORCING TO BE PRETTY MUCH
AT ITS PEAK...WITH ACTIVITY SLATED TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY BETWEEN
ABOUT 03-06Z. SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE LOWER SUSQ SHOW THEY HAVE
PICKED UP A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE CONCERN IS THAT THEY WILL REACH WARNING NUMBERS
BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS
POINT I STILL LIKE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE ON AVERAGE
SO AM NOT PLANNING TO UPGRADE...YET.
AS SNOW BEGINS TO DWINDLE OVERNIGHT...THE WIND WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 25MPH MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
SEVERAL INCHES OF THE DRY FLUFFY SNOW. IT WILL TURN FRIGID WITH
LOWS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER THE NORTH RANGING TO MID TEENS
OVER THE SOUTH. FACTORING IN THE WIND AND CHILLS...IT WILL FEEL
WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN PROBLEM FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLD...MORNING LOWS JUST BELOW
ZERO IN NORTHWEST AND LOW TEENS IN SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH 10-15KT
WINDS AND GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE WILL MAKE FOR A BITTER
FEELING COLD DAY WITH A STINGING WIND. BE SURE TO BUNDLE THE KIDS
UP FOR SCHOOL.
THE WIND WILL ABATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT RISE TOO
MUCH FRIDAY AND WILL NOT FALL TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT BUT FRIDAY
OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS COULD POSSIBLY BE COLDEST
OF THE WINTER TO DATE...BUT WE ARE LOOKING AT COLDER AIR NEXT
TUESDAY TIME-FRAME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
***SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA JANUARY 7-8TH***
THE MEDIUM RANGE/LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH HIGH PRES MIGRATING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. RETURN SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY MODERATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GETTING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN RESUMES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE SRN EDGE OF A DEEP VORTEX
SPINNING ALONG THE NRN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADIAN BORDER HELPS TO
INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK/DEPTH OF THE LOW WITH
THE ECMWF REPRESENTING THE STRONGER AND WRN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE CMC/UKMET/SREF MEAN IN THE MIDDLE AND
GFS/GEFS WEAKER AND FURTHEST TO THE EAST. WHILE THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST DETAILS SUCH AS THE TRACK WHICH WOULD
IMPACT SENSIBLE WX PTYPES...THERE IS ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PCPN THEREFORE INCREASED POPS AOA CONSENSUS MOS/RAW
MODEL BLEND TO 60-80 PCT FOR DAY 4.
ENTER THE DEEP FREEZE...THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE ERN U.S NEXT WEEK...DRIVING A TRUE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN THE LAST 20 YEARS IS
EXPECTED TO INVADE THE REGION FROM LATE ON DAY 5/MON NGT THRU DAY
6/TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF -25 TO -35C /-3 TO -4SD/
WILL SUPPORT FRIGID/BITTER TO NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
DAILY HI/LO DEPARTURES -20 AND -30 DEGREES BELOW EARLY JANUARY
CLIMO. THE EPICENTER OF THE COLD OUTBREAK SHOULD PEAK ON TUESDAY
WITH LOWS FROM 0F IN THE LSV TO -20F BELOW IN THE NW MTNS. TO MAKE
MATTERS WORSE...A BLUSTERY WEST WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE BONE-
CHILLING ARCTIC AIR TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -40F
BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
MAKING FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA A REAL CONCERN IF EXPOSED TO THE
ELEMENTS FOR ONLY A SHORT PERIOD. PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS
AND PREPARE FOR THE COLDEST AIRMASS TO AFFECT THE AREA SINCE
JANUARY 1994. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO START RAISING AWARENESS BY
HIGHLIGHTING THE UPCOMING COLD EPISODE BY ISSUING SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE EXTREME COLD
IN THE HWO.
SOME LAKE EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE SUN-MON SYSTEM
WILL BE SECONDARY TO THE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR OUTBREAK. THE LLVL
FLOW BACKS MORE THE WSW AND SHOULD SHIFT LES INTO SW NY BY TUES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD WITH READINGS FROM THE
NEAR ZERO IN THE LSV TO 10 BELOW IN THE NW...AS A 1040MB HIGH
MOVES OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS BLEND SUPPORTS TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL BY NEXT THURSDAY/DAY 8.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH HEAVIER BANDS NOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF PA. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING. EXPECT VSBY CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO BE REDUCED TO LESS
THAN A MILE.
AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THE WINDS START TO COME AROUND FROM THE
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP INTO THE 20-30KT RANGES. IN
PLACES WHERE IT SNOWS SEVERAL INCHES...BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT
VISIBILITIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST (KBFD) AND THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...THE SNOW SHOULD EXIT FAST IN THE 0800 TO 1000 UTC TIME
FRAME. SKIES AND VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE. THOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE
WINDY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
WINDS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK... FRI...LOWER CIGS RAPIDLY LIFTING IN SOUTH AND EAST IN MORNING.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRES DRIFTING EWD.
SUN-MON...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE AIRSPACE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ019-
025>028-034>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR PAZ006-012-018-037-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
PAZ010>012-017-018-024-033.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004-005-010-
011-017-024-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ004>006-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...GRUMM/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1028 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
WHILE THE OVERALL THINKING OF THE FORECAST IN TERMS OF
DYNAMICS/FORCING REMAINS SIMILAR TO WHAT IS DISCUSSED
BELOW...HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO LATEST MODEL RUNS
AND CURRENT WEATHER. FIRST OF ALL...DID GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR/MOST OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE REASONING BEHIND
THIS IS THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING QUICKER THAN THOUGHT
OVER THAT AREA...AND WINDS HAVE REMAINED A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
FORECASTED. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT WINDS WILL TAPER DOWN LATER IN
THE NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT...BUT EVEN SO...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THAT AREA...WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO WILL BE REALIZED OVERNIGHT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STILL HAVING RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z NAM NOW TRENDING
BACK TO THE SOUTH. THIS ALIGNS IT WELL WITH MOST OTHER MODELS
PUTTING THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER
CORRIDOR...OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z GEM WHICH TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH. WHAT IS A LITTLE MORE DISTURBING IS THAT LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO COME IN A LITTLE WETTER. IN LIGHT OF THAT...UPPED QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THAT AREA...YIELDING SNOWFALL TOTALS CLOSER TO 3
INCHES. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS...PUSHING INTO
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THINK THAT MOST OF THE EFFECTED AREA WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW THAT. UPDATES ARE OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS WAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES LINGERING. ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE HAD GREAT
DIFFICULTY PINPOINTING WHERE THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS WAVE...AND HOW MUCH QPF WILL FALL. THUS NEEDLESS TO SAY A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THE WAVE SEEMS TO
GO TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
FURTHER NORTH...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST
MODELS ARE TRENDING THE AREA OF SNOW FURTHER NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
REGION WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE MID LEVEL FRONT INTERACTS WITH
SOME OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING. MODELS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE FRONT...SUGGESTING WE COULD SEE SOME ENHANCED
BANDING. THE THERMAL PROFILE DOES FEATURE A DECENT SIZED AREA IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SUGGESTING RATIOS COULD END UP AROUND
15 TO 1. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF VALUES SUGGEST 1 TO 2 INCHES IN
THE SNOW BAND...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES IF RATIOS END
UP A BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER THE RUC...HRRR AND 18Z NAM ARE ALL MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF VALUES. THESE THREE WOULD SUGGEST A BAND OF
3 TO 5 INCHES. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING...POTENTIAL BANDING AND
MODELS TRENDING UPWARD IN QPF...THIS CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. HOWEVER DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THIS AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWER AND THE MODEL INCONSISTENCY
FROM RUN TO RUN. THUS...TRENDED AMOUNTS UP...BUT ONLY TOWARDS MODEL
CONSENSUS...WHICH AT THIS TIME STILL SEEMS LIKE THE MORE LIKELY
SOLUTION.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE THIS BAND SETS UP. RIGHT
NOW ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IS THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION...WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS AS YOU GET TOWARDS
INTERSTATE 90. HOWEVER THE GEM AND HRRR ARE FURTHER NORTH...PUTTING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO OR JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL GO WITH THE MORE LIKELY SOLUTION ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT NORTHWARD TRENDS CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE HRRR AND GEM SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW...WILL
STICK WITH THE 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...DECREASING
TO AROUND AN INCH IN SIOUX FALLS AND LESS TO THE NORTH...BUT AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AND SEE
IF ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. EXPECT SNOW TO START AROUND 10 PM IN OUR
WEST...APPROACH SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT...AND
SPENCER TO STORM LAKE AROUND 2 AM.
IT WILL BE A COLD ONE TONIGHT AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO THE
SOUTH. KEPT THE TREND OF STAYING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THOUGH...GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST A WEAKLY MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND THE 20 BELOW ZERO ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN OUR NORTH. HOWEVER DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ONE AT THIS TIME...AS
WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND GENERALLY BE UNDER 10
MPH...AND IF WINDS STAY UP MORE...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY STAY A
BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST. THUS FEEL LIKE WIND CHILLS WILL HOVER A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 20 BELOW...AND GIVEN OUR COLD WINTER THUS
FAR...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SNOW SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...GIVING
WAY TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGHS
WILL WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIND CHILLS LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
CONTINUED COLD WEATHER PATTERN LOCKED IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MID AND LONG RANGE FORECAST. PREDOMINATE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL USHER IN SEVERAL WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH WILL
PROVIDE REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR. THE FIRST BLAST OF COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY COLD
LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW FOR A LARGE
AREA...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW THE 10 MPH THRESHOLD FOR A
WIND CHILL HEADLINE.
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE VERY COLD WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING A LITTLE
MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFF
TO OUR EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
INCOMING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ONLY REACHING HIGHS AROUND ZERO. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LEADING INTO THE ONLY MILD DAY OF THE
PERIOD. AFTER A SLIGHT DIP IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY EVENING...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN RISING OVERNIGHT WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF...HOWEVER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOME 20 DEGREES
OR MORE FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE RECENT
SNOWFALL COULD BE A CONCERN AS THE WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY.
STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BACK INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ZERO FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH PLACES NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SQUARELY INTO WIND CHILL WARNING TERRITORY AND AS COLD AS 35 TO 45
BELOW ZERO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CST TUE DEC 31 2013
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SNOW WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOCUSED THROUGH
THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA. VISIBILITIES
WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE IN HEAVIER SNOW ACTIVITY. LIGHT SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 12Z ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WILL MOST
LIKELY HOLD ON TO LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
054>056.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
081-089-090-097.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ002-003-013-
014.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...CHENARD
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
305 PM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON A PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK WAS LOCATED EAST OF A LINE
FROM CARRIZO SPRINGS TO FREDERICKSBURG TO GEORGETOWN. THIS CLOUD DECK
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. AT 21Z THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS MOVING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY
BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST RUC13 MODEL
SOLUTION. THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PRE-FRONTAL PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS DIMMIT AND
SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES. POST-FRONTAL WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE
NORTHERLY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 MPH. LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR
40 SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER AS CAA CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH THE
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HARD
FREEZE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LOW TEMP FCST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK DUE TO A SERIES
OF FROPAS. HOWEVER A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ONCE
AGAIN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR OUR EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. A RE-ENFORCEMENT OF THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT. WAA/OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 36 52 29 53 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 33 51 24 52 35 / - 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 35 54 26 54 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 31 49 24 52 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 36 55 30 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 31 50 24 52 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 37 57 25 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 35 52 26 54 37 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 36 51 28 53 41 / 10 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 37 56 28 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 39 57 29 56 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1017 PM PST Tue Dec 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will move over the Inland Northwest through
Wednesday although a few lingering areas of light rain and snow
will remain possible mainly in the Idaho Panhandle. A stronger
storm system will pass through Thursday night bringing mainly rain
in the valleys and snow in the mountains. A cooler and drier
pattern is expected this weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update: A shortwave disturbance has slid into the central ID
Panhandle early this evening. The RUC model seems to have a good
handle on this piece of energy and slides it southeast of the
region by 8:00 PM tonight. Radar imagery already shows showers
across the area winding down as drier air aloft filters into the
region behind this disturbance. I expect this drying trend to
continue and updated the forecast to trend down our precip chances
through tonight. The only area expected to see some light snow
will be in the Central Panhandle Mountains, but will not be of
much concern. Other forecast updates were to expend the fog threat
to the south a bit faster and to include the Palouse region. The
L-C Valley is a tougher call for fog tonight as their dew point
depression is still a bit high. With temperatures remaining around
the freezing mark, any dense fog that forms will have the potential
for creating slick travel conditions. /SVH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widespread low stratus and fog is filling its way
southward into the Upper Columbia Basin late this evening. KGEG,
KSFF, KCOE and KMWH will likely see IFR/LIFR cigs/vis through at
least the late morning hours on Wednesday. Confidence is lower at
how much these low clouds will impact KEAT, KPUW and KLWS taf
locations. Satellite imagery shows a southward and westward trend of
low clouds filling in toward KEAT and is anticipated that IFR cigs
will develop some time between 09-12Z. Easterly and southeasterly
flow is expected to keep much of the stratus north and west of KPUW
and LWS, but some shallow fog at either taf site can not be ruled
out. /SVH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 26 36 28 38 31 38 / 10 10 10 20 70 20
Coeur d`Alene 29 38 27 40 30 37 / 10 10 10 20 80 30
Pullman 30 40 29 41 32 39 / 10 10 0 10 70 40
Lewiston 31 41 31 45 35 45 / 10 10 0 10 50 40
Colville 25 33 27 33 29 35 / 10 20 30 30 60 20
Sandpoint 28 36 27 37 29 37 / 10 20 30 40 90 30
Kellogg 31 37 29 38 31 35 / 50 20 20 30 90 60
Moses Lake 22 35 26 36 25 40 / 0 0 10 10 20 10
Wenatchee 26 36 27 36 27 40 / 0 0 0 10 20 10
Omak 22 32 25 32 24 36 / 0 10 10 20 30 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until Noon PST Friday for East Slopes
Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper
Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1210 PM CST WED JAN 1 2014
.UPDATE...UPGRADED MILWAUKEE AND RACINE TO WARNING BASED ON
RECENT SNOWS COMBINED WITH ONGOING TRENDS AND DECENT BAND MOVING
ONSHORE. ON TOP OF THIS...THE LAKE EFFECT SETUP CONTINUES TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE WITH TIME AS THE PROGGD EQL/LAKE INDUCED
CAPE CONTINUES TO RISE. DELTA T RISES TO 20C TONIGHT. SO MAY BE
ADDING MORE INCHES TO THE GOING FORECAST AMOUNTS BASED ON WHERE
THE PRIMARY BAND INTERSECTS LAND AREAS. MESO MODELS INCLUDING
HRRR/ARW/SPC WRF ARE EITHER NOT TOO EXCITED OR SHOW A NEAR-MISS
WITH PRIMARY BAND. HOWEVER NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS PAINT QUITE A BIT
OF CONCERN WITH FAVORABLE FETCH AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
TIME. NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW THE QPF AFFECTING AT LEAST THE
LAKESHORE COUNTIES IN THE QPF PANELS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
THURSDAY. DECENT CORRIDOR OF 925-850 MILLIBAR CONVERGENCE DURING
THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS. TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT SNOWS PERSISTING
THIS PERIOD FOR THE EASTERN TAFS INCLUDING KUES. KMSN WILL SEE
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WIDESPREAD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LAKE EFFECT WITH IFR VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER BANDS. KUES
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF THE POTENTIAL AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SHORE PARALLEL LATER TNGT INTO THU. MEANWHILE POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR KMKE AND KENW INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST WED JAN 1 2014/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHIFTING WINDS CAUSING SOME SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND -3. WIND CHILLS WL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND -20 THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER SO WL POST WIND CHILL
ADVISORY.
FAR SOUTHERN WI WILL GET CLIPPED BY LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET FOR A TIME THIS MORNING
BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. HENCE EXPECT A PERIOD OF -SN THIS
MORNING WITH UP TO ONE INCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. -SN SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER LATE MRNG THRU MID-AFTN.
PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. 1000-850MB WINDS IN
THE PROCESS OF TURNING ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SAGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN SYSTEM SNOW WITH
THIS LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF WI TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD THE TN
VALLEY AND UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS TNGT INTO THU.
THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
TODAY THRU THU. AVERAGING LAKE MI TEMP AROUND 36...RESULTS IN
DELTA T VALUES OF 15 TO 18 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY...INCREASING TO
20 DEGREES CELSIUS TNGT INTO THU. FOR THE BULK OF THE
TIME...ENHANCED SYNTOPTIC SCALE LIFT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
DEEP MOISTURE IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE HOWEVER PERIODS OF DRYING
NOTED ABOVE 3500FT INVERSION TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASING
CONVERGENCE AND DELTA T VALUES WILL RESULT IN OCNL SHSN IN
EASTERN CWA DEVELOPING THIS MRNG. BEST THREAT FOR HEAVIER SHSN MAY
BE TNGT INTO THU WHEN FETCH BACKS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASES TO AROUND
100 MILES AND INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASES RESULTING IN GREAT LAKE
INDUCED CAPE.
WL CONVERT WINTER WX ADVY TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AND EXPAND
NORTH TO INCLUDE REST OF LAKE SHORE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR
POTENTIAL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TOTAL ADDITIONAL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
LIKELY IN SOME SOUTHERN LAKESHORE AREAS BUT SPREAD OVER A GREATER
PERIOD. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME TO INCREASE TO WARNING
BUT WL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR TNGT AND
THU.
SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOWING MAIN SINGLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVING SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING IT FURTHEST
INLAND...WITH THE OTHER MODELS JUST GRAZING THE SHORELINE.
FAVORABLE SETUP CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES OF 18 TO
21 DEGREES CELSIUS...SATURATED LOW LEVELS IN DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED HIGH POPS IN LAKESHORE
COUNTIES...LOWERING TO THE WEST.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR THE LAKE WITH THIS
BAND. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT SETUP OF THE
BAND...COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY...WITH COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES AND SOLID SNOWPACK SHOULD
ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AWAY FROM THE
LAKE...SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NEAR IT. COULD EVEN BE A BIT
COLDER GIVEN THIS SETUP.
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD.
GFS/CANADIAN MODELS TRY TO BRING IN LIGHT QPF TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH THE OTHERS DRY. LEFT
LOW POPS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY PER GFS...OR SATURDAY EVENING PER ECMWF. LOW PRESSURE
THEN STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING FURTHER NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS LOW
TRACK...WHICH KEEPS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRY. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE GFS...AND KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON THE
EDGE OF THE QPF SHIELD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH THE LOW TRACK. FOR NOW...USED CONSENSUS
POPS WHICH HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON INTO THE REGION.
1000/500MB THICKNESSES FALL IN THE 490S DECAMETER RANGE...WITH A
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES FROM THE CONSENSUS BLEND FOR
THIS PERIOD. FOR NOW...COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE 25 TO
35 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IN THE 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO
RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
DROP INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO RANGE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS PERIOD FOR THE BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT EASTERN TAF SITES
FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY TNGT INTO THU.
MARINE...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CAUSE HIGHER
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
ALSO LIKELY DUE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WL CONTINUE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AND EXTEND TO 00Z/03.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ066-071.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ065-070-
072.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ052-059-
060.
LM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
416 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
.SHORT TERM...(NEW YEARS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
KCYS 88D RETURNS ALONG WITH AREA METARS SHOW THAT ALMOST ALL AREAS
ARE OR HAVE ALREADY SEEN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS HAVE RECEIVED FROM A TRACE TO UP TO A
COUPLE OF INCHES. 10Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE ERN COLORADO PLAINS WITH THE FRONT REACHING A DEPTH OF
AROUND 6 KFT AGL. SATELLITE PIX SHOW BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING FROM
THE FRONT RANGE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AS A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE AND H3 JET STREAK MOVING INTO WRN WYOMING. LATEST MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT THE BEST QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE PEAKING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TODAY. SNOWFALL HAS BEEN AIDED BY LEFT
EXIT REGION JET SUPPORT...AS WELL AS EVIDENT CSI ATOP THE LLVL
FRONTAL INVERSION. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT TO SEE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL SEE PERHAPS AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE SNOWY/SIERRA MADRE
RANGES HAVE FARED BETTER WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES ALREADY
OBSERVED. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS
AS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY. SHORTWAVE AND H3 JET AXIS
SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO SNOW CHANCES WEST TO
EAST. WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY IN CAA BEHIND FROPA. SO ONLY
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 30S TODAY.
HEIGHTS RISE RAPIDLY ON THURSDAY AS TRANSITORY RIDGING MOVES THRU.
MODELS DO STILL SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE
MOVING THRU ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN WEAKER OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. IT WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE
HIS WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S.
LLVL GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN A BIT EARLIER THAN EARLY MODELS
SHOWED...NOW DOING SO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. KCAG-KCPR GRADIENTS
BEGIN TO INFLATE TO BETWEEN 50-60 METERS AS EARLY AS 06Z FRIDAY. H7
WIND PROGS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS WILL YIELD A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE NEXT
HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
ADIABATIC WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BOOSTING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. SO FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SNOW CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE HIER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS 700MB WINDS OF AROUND
50 KTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. FROPA IS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COLDER
ON SAT AS 700MB TEMPS DROP TO -15C. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE SUN AND MON AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD ON SUN NIGHT AND MON.
THIS IS THE COLDEST AIRMASS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SFC
HIGH. THE GFS SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF -25C JUST OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA WITH -30C IN THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z MON. THUS...IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ON SUN AND MON IN
THE WEAK LLVL UPSLOPE. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY TUES AND TEMPS
BEGIN TO MODERATE AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED
BY WEAK SFC TROUGHING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
LATEST RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH LATE THIS
EVENING. CHADRON ALREADY IFR AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING THIS
IFR AREA DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. SNOW ALSO IMPACTING KRWL AND KLAR AROUND THE 09Z
TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST WED JAN 1 2014
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE DISTRICTS...WITH UP TO
A COUPLE OF INCHES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OF COURSE...MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY A WARM-UP THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL AGAIN
MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE DUE IN
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR WYZ112-
114.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAHN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...HAHN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1045 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
WINDS REMAIN UP IN OUR WIND PRONE AREAS THIS EVENING...DESPITE
GUIDANCE SHOWING THESE WINDS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN NOW. WENT AHEAD
AND EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO 3 AM SO THE MID SHIFT CAN
REASSESS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
TONIGHT...PRIMARY CHALLENGES...AS ARE QUITE TYPICAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ARE WINDS AND SNOW.
WINDS AT BORDEAUX...ALONG INTERSTATE 25 IN PLATTE COUNTY...AND AT
ARLINGTON...ALONG INTERSTATE 80 IN EASTERN CARBON COUNTY...STILL
GUSTING NEAR 60 MPH AT MID AFTERNOON. SUSPECT WINDS AND WIND GUSTS
IN OUR HIGH WIND WARNING AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AT MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS WEAKEN
AND 500-300 MB AND 700-500 MB QUASIGEOSTROPHIC RISING MOTION ADVECTS
ACROSS OUR COUNTIES...THUS WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING INTACT
AND LET THE EVENING FORECAST TEAM ASSESS THE APPROPRIATE TIME TO END
THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
AS FOR SNOW...INHERITED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OUR SIERRA MADRE
AND SNOWY RANGES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE PLAUSIBLE
AND ON TRACK. PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR COUNTIES...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 500-300 MB
AND 700-500 MB QUASIGEOSTROPHIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COUPLET
MOVING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH DOWNWARD MOTION
INDICATED IN THESE LEVELS WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
FORTUNATELY...FOR TRAVEL PURPOSES ON THIS NEW YEARS EVE...LOOKS LIKE
THE BULK OF THE AREAL SNOW COVERAGE WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BASED ON PROJECTED MOISTURE DEPTH...PROGRESSIVE TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MODEL QPF FROM THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...FORECAST
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...WPC...QPF...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY PAN OUT WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE
RANGE...TO THE WEST OF THE SNOWY RANGE OVER SOUTHERN CARBON COUNTY.
A FEW OTHER LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES...WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...COULD
SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT BELIEVE AMOUNTS WILL BE PRIMARILY
LESS THAN 3 INCHES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...THUS NO ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. MODELS LOOK ERRONEOUSLY TOO LOW
WITH POPS...AND HAVE GONE WITH 50 TO 100 PERCENT POPS FOR LATE
TONIGHT CONSIDERING OUR FAVORED UPSLOPE AND OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
LOCALES.
NEW YEARS DAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SOUTHEAST
OF OUR COUNTIES...THUS EXPECT AREAL SNOW COVERAGE TO DECREASE...
THOUGH ENOUGH LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE
ALOFT TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH OF A RAWLINS TO CHADRON LINE. THE NEW YEAR
WILL DAWN WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES PER PROGGED 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -14 CELSIUS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY PERIOD WITH LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT...THOUGH EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25 DUE TO PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.
THURSDAY...ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...THOUGH
WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER EFFECTS OVER OUR COUNTIES EXCEPT TO
REINFORCE THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. THUS EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TYPICAL BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS PER PROGGED LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED DRY DUE TO LACK OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT LOOKS QUITE LIKELY FOR OUR WIND
PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS BORDEAUX...ARLINGTON...ELK MOUNTAIN AND
VEDAUWOO BASED ON PROGGED SURFACE THROUGH 700 MB GRADIENTS. DECENT
MIXING WILL MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR FROM WHEATLAND TO THE
COLORADO STATE LINE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
ONE MORE MILD DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGES ENSUE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INITIALLY...BRINGING NEXT UPPER TROF ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWS AS WELL AS COLDER
TEMPERATURES. DISAGREEMENTS THEN BEGIN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA. GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THIS...PRODUCING A MORE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA ESPECIALLY
THE PLAINS WHILE THE EC IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE COLDER AIR AND
BRINGS IT DOWN QUICKER AND IN SEPARATE SURGES. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE EC AS IT TENDS TO PERFORM BETTER WITH THESE SCENARIOS
BUT WILL HAVE TO GO COLDER IF IT TRENDS TOWARDS THE GFS. OTHERWISE
SOME LIGHT SNOWS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR MASS...
MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
LATEST RADAR SHOWING AREA OF SNOW DROPPING SOUTH LATE THIS
EVENING. CHADRON ALREADY IFR AND LATEST HRRR FORECAST SHOWING THIS
IFR AREA DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. SNOW ALSO IMPACTING KRWL AND KLAR AROUND THE 09Z
TIME FRAME AND CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST TUE DEC 31 2013
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES BASED ON PROJECTED HUMIDITIES.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ112-114.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ106-110-116-
117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLAYCOMB
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
422 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SEND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
992 HPA LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 225 SE OF KMTP AT 8Z. LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRODUCING SNOW BANDS ACROSS
THE NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON BANDING A
BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES A TAD COLDER THAN
FORECAST PROMOTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS...HAVE UPPED
SNOW FALL TOTALS TO 8-12 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND 6-10 ACROSS
THE NEW YORK CITY/NE NJ/S WESTCHESTER.
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BY AROUND MID MORNING BASED ON
TIMING OF BACK EDGE OF SNOW ON RADAR. SOME INDICATION THAT COULD
HAVE A LINGERING DEFORMATION BAND OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON - BUT FOR NOW DO NOT THINK WILL ADD MUCH TO
ACCUMULATION. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH - AS
SOMETIMES THEY ARE GOOD FOR AN EXTRA INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.
EVEN AS SNOW SHUTS DOWN - STRONG N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 30-45 MPH
WILL CAUSING BLOWING OF THE DRY POWDERY SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS
- WITH VALUES 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES AND
5 TO 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS IS.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON - WITH WIND CHILLS INCREASING TO FROM
-10 TO AROUND 0.
FOR HIGHS TODAY TOOK A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RUC 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT VALUES DURING THE TEENS TODAY - WITH
MOST HIGHS FOR THE DAY REACHED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT - AND THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LIKELY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TODAY AT SOME CLIMATE SITES. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE
AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COUPLED WITH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY FROM 5 ABOVE TO AROUND 10
BELOW - COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AROUND 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - AND CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE LOWEST OF
MAV/MET/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND BLENDING 2 PARTS OF THIS AND
1 PART OF A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS
INSURES THAT THE FORECAST LOWS ARE COLDER THAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
- HOWEVER NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SEEMED
EXCESSIVELY COLD - ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR CT.
THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES AT SOME LOCATIONS. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER FULL LATITUDE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO REAL BLOCK...A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA...COLD AIR COMES IN
WITH A FURY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ALSO QUICKLY LIFTS OUT IN THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.
MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM WRF ON THE FASTER END OF THE SUITE...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE
MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH...AND THE ECMWF LAGGING JUST BEHIND. GEFS AND
SREF LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW WAS
TO NOT BREAK MUCH FROM CONTINUITY WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...PREFERRING A FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK MON.
WARM ADVECTION RAINS DEVELOP SUN AFT...PRIMARILY FROM NYC POINTS
NORTH AND WEST...WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN
EVENT AS COLD AIR LAGS SUFFICIENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MON MORNING INTO TUE...WITH A
PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. 85H TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND
-25 DEGREES F. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUE ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO OF
NOTE IS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS FORECAST COULD REACH
0 TO -10 DEGREES F AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM THROUGH THIS MORNING***
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WITH
MOSTLY IFR CONDS AND MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN INCH PER
HOUR PER HOUR...SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH
FALLING SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM 11Z-14Z FROM WEST TO
EAST...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES AT KSWF...TO 8-10 INCHES OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS AND FROM 8-10 INCHES OVER EASTERN LONG
ELSEWHERE...HIGHEST ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
NORTH WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...WILL BACK NW A LITTLE LATER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...BY ABOUT 14Z-15Z. NW WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS.
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RAIN AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL
CT TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON MORNING...IFR CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. S WINDS
G20-30KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. W WINDS G20-30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE STORM CENTER DEEPENS WHILE PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN WATERS FALL BELOW GALE
WARNING CRITERIA BY AROUND NOON TODAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALL
WATERS SUBSIDE BELOW GALES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO TRIM BACK THE GALE WARNING...WILL KEEP THE GALE
WARNING AS IS...LASTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TO START...BUT
QUICKLY SUBSIDING. ONLY THE OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY STILL HAVE
SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ONLY BECAUSE OF SEAS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY ON THE
OCEAN...IF NOT...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY MID-MORNING.
SUB SCA SAT MORNING INCREASES TO SCA SOUTHEAST OF LI LATE SAT
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES. A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS MON
INTO WED WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS AND NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
FALL MAINLY THIS MORNING...ALL AS SNOW.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING. GENERAL ESTIMATES OF EVENT TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM A
MODEL CONSENSUS ARE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE OCCURS THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT
TIDAL PILING WILL BE MAIN FACTOR FOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS
CYCLE. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THAT THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
DAILY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES.
THE STEVENS INSTITUTE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BETTER PERFORMER WITH
THIS STORM SO FAR AND WHEN FACTORING IN AN EXTRA RESIDUAL (NOTING
RECENT OBSERVATIONS) ON TOP OF ITS SURGE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
THIS UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH WAVES AND A SE SWELL
FOR A GOOD PORTION LEADING UP TO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...THE
SOUTH-SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND QUEENS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. IT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE PARTS OF THE LOWER
HARBOR...BUT THINKING IS THAT ANY MODERATE FLOODING WOULD BE JUST
ISOLATED.
WITH THIS SAID...WILL BE GOING WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS WHERE
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE WARRANTED. ALSO...NO HEADLINES FOR
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY AS THEY LIKELY FALL SHORT OF MINOR
THRESHOLDS.
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE HOWEVER SOUTHERN NASSAU AND
QUEENS DON/T EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING...AND INSTEAD
JUST HAVE MINOR FLOODING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX COUNTY DO NOT EVEN REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WITH TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE AS IT WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO TIDE CYCLES AND TIDAL
PILING WOULD NO LONGER BE A FACTOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE RECORDS FOR JANUARY 3:
LOCATION RECORD LOW HIGH FORECAST VALUE
BRIDGEPORT...CT 16 1981 18
ISLIP...NY 20 2008 17
LAGUARDIA...NY 17 1981 18
JFK AIRPORT...NY 22 2008/1981 18
NYC-CENTRAL PARK...NY 12 1918 17
NEWARK...NJ 19 1981 18
LOCATION RECORD LOW FORECAST VALUE
BRIDGEPORT...CT 9 2008 9
ISLIP...NY 7 2001 10
LAGUARDIA...NY 12 1981 7
JFK AIRPORT...NY 14 2008 11
NYC-CENTRAL PARK...NY -4 1879 8
NEWARK...NJ 10 1981 8
CLIMATE RECORDS FOR JANUARY 4:
LOCATION RECORD LOW FORECAST VALUE
BRIDGEPORT...CT -1 1981 1
ISLIP...NY 10 2008 2
LAGUARDIA...NY 4 1981 2
JFK AIRPORT...NY 8 1981 3
NYC-CENTRAL PARK...NY -3 1981 2
NEWARK...NJ 1 1981 1
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-079-176-177.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081-
177-179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067>075-176-178.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ072-074-075.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/PW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...MALOIT/LN
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
157 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN DEPARTS
TO THE EAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY. ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND IT AS WESTERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST - HAVE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON HRRR 2-M TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEM TO AVE
BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS A RESULT - COULD END UP WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS - SO ADDED LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE WSW TEXT.
SPS OUT FOR SNOW BAND IMPACTING S NASSAU AND SUFFOLK - WITH RATES
1-2 INCH/HR. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AMOUNTS IF NEEDED.
AT 4Z A 996 HPA LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES S OF KMTP LIFTING
NNE PER LATEST PRESSURE FALLS...WITH RAPID DEEPENING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WITH THE STEEP PRESSURE FALLS DUE EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW WINDS AND
VISIBILITIES TREND - THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSED EXPANSION
OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING - WITH MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING SE CT
AND POSSIBLY NYC. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY THROUGH 9Z THEN A TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E.
MODEL OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE...WITH GFS AND
ECMWF A BIT WETTER THAN NAM/WRF.
SREF ENSEMBLE WOULD SUGGEST A QPF BLEND IS PERHAPS THE WAY TO GO AT
THIS TIME. QPF OF AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
VERY COLD AIR THIS TIME FRAME.
MORNING SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW DEPARTS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER LI
PER LOW TRACK/HEAVIEST SNOW CLIMATOLOGY.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPS RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY...AND IN FACT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
BEFORE DROPPING LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WENT CLOSER TO COLDER MAV
DATA...WHICH MAY NOT EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH AS MOS TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
AND DOES NOT USUALLY HANDLE IMPACTS OF A FRESH SNOW PACK WELL.
HOWEVER...SOME WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH LATE AT
NIGHT...WHICH COULD HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT
WILL DIVE BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. A RIDGING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS APPROACHING.
AT THE SURFACE...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUANCE OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE A
MODERATION OF THE AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS
SATURDAY...ONLY TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 950 MB. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE MODERATION WILL BE MORE REMARKABLE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WITH THE INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL LIKELY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH LIGHTER WINDS THERE.
A REMARKABLE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES FREEZING OR BELOW IN
THE MORNING WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST APPROACHING
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL PRESENT A CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX TO START...CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AS WARMER AIR RIDES INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
RAIN AT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE AREA. ALONG WITH THIS WILL ALSO BE ADVECTION
FOG...PATCHY IN NATURE DURING THE AREA BUT LIKELY GROWING IN AREA AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY LULLS IN RAIN ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON A NON-DIURNAL TREND...RISING SLOWLY SUNDAY EVENING.
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS RAIN COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. THE
RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION ON A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BY SET
IN THE MORNING WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL BE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT THURSDAY AS PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVE ACROSS. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE DEEP
ANOMALOUS TROUGH PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. ALSO
OF NOTE IS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS FORECAST COULD REACH
0 TO -10 DEGREES F AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VAST DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO ARE APPARENT WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND MUCH
OF ITS MEMBERS WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SIDES
MORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL SPEED AND MORE
WESTERN TRACK OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM THROUGH THIS MORNING***
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WITH
LIFR/VLIFR CONDS AND MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER
HOUR PER HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 11Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH FALLING SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM 12Z-14Z FROM WEST TO EAST...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS
UNTIL MIDDAY. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES OVER WESTERN TERMINALS
AND FROM 8-10 INCHES OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT.
NORTH WINDS /350-010 MAG/ 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT WILL BACK
NW /320-340 MAG/ AFTER 12Z.
NW WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY 06Z SAT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RAIN AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL
CT TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON MORNING...IFR CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. S WINDS
G20-30KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. W WINDS G20-30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEEPENING DID ADD OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 50 KT FOR THE TWO EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
WIND AND GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS
AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH GALES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL.
GALE CONDITIONS END LATER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS
DIMINISH QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
ROUGH SEAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SUB SCA SAT MORNING INCREASES TO SCA SOUTHEAST OF LI LATE SAT
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES. A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL FALLING AS SNOW.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING.
GENERAL ESTIMATES OF EVENT TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM A MODEL
CONSENSUS ARE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM COMES THRU OVERNIGHT...AS A RESULT PEAK
WINDS DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES IN THE CITY AND ALONG
THE GREAT S BAY. ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR GREAT SOUTH
BAY - WITH MINOR FLOODING MEASURED AT AREA GAGES THERE.
ACROSS THE SOUND...HIGH TIDE IS AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO THIS LINES UP
BETTER WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT
4 FT ON THE SOUND...SO EXPECT WAVES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 3-6 FT ON
THE N FACING SOUND COASTS. AS A RESULT...THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
THE SURGE TO PRODUCE MODERATE FLOODING. A WARNING HAS THEREFORE
BEEN ISSUED FROM THE BRONX AROUND TO CNTRL SUFFOLK. DUE TO
OFFSHORE COMPONENT WINDS...EXPECTING THE IMPACTS TO BE LESSER FROM
WESTCHESTER TO CT...SO AN ADVY ISSUED FOR THOSE SPOTS. AN INCREASE
OF A HALF FT IN SURGE ABV THE HIGHEST GUIDANCE WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR THESE AREAS TO REACH MODERATE.
AN ADVY HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR SERN LI. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR THE
N FACING PORTIONS OF THE S FORK AND SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC WHERE WAVE ACTION WILL SUPPLEMENT THE SURGE.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FRIDAY
MRNG/AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN SOUND WHERE
THE ETSS IS TRYING TO HOLD ONTO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WATER.
BECAUSE THIS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER...MINOR OR BLW IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME FOR ALL AREAS ATTM.
MINOR BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUND AND
WRN OCEAN...WITH MODERATE EROSION ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN
OCEANFRONT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ009-010.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081-
177-179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067>075-176-178.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ073-078-176-177.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...GOODMAN/MPS
MARINE...JC/JM/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1158 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...THEN DEPARTS
TO THE EAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY. THIS WILL DEEPEN TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MONDAY. ANOTHER
ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS IN BEHIND IT AS WESTERN CANADA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING OFF MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST - HAVE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON HRRR 2-M TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEM TO AVE
BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS. AS A RESULT - COULD END UP WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS - SO ADDED LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TO THE WSW TEXT.
SPS OUT FOR SNOW BAND IMPACTING S NASSAU AND SUFFOLK - WITH RATES
1-2 INCH/HR. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AMOUNTS IF NEEDED.
AT 4Z A 996 HPA LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES S OF KMTP LIFTING
NNE PER LATEST PRESSURE FALLS...WITH RAPID DEEPENING EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. WITH THE STEEP PRESSURE FALLS DUE EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA. DEPENDING ON HOW WINDS AND
VISIBILITIES TREND - THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A SHORT FUSED EXPANSION
OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING - WITH MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES BEING SE CT
AND POSSIBLY NYC. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
GENERALLY THROUGH 9Z THEN A TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E.
MODEL OUTPUT FOR TONIGHT REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE...WITH GFS AND
ECMWF A BIT WETTER THAN NAM/WRF.
SREF ENSEMBLE WOULD SUGGEST A QPF BLEND IS PERHAPS THE WAY TO GO AT
THIS TIME. QPF OF AROUND 1/2 INCH TO 3/4 OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COLD AIR THIS TIME FRAME.
MORNING SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW DEPARTS. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER LI
PER LOW TRACK/HEAVIEST SNOW CLIMATOLOGY.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SKIES CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST.
TEMPS RISE LITTLE DURING THE DAY...AND IN FACT REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
BEFORE DROPPING LATER IN THE DAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. AS WINDS
LIGHTEN AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR...TEMPS WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. WENT CLOSER TO COLDER MAV
DATA...WHICH MAY NOT EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH AS MOS TRENDS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY
AND DOES NOT USUALLY HANDLE IMPACTS OF A FRESH SNOWPACK WELL.
HOWEVER...SOME WAA MID AND HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH LATE AT
NIGHT...WHICH COULD HAVE A MINOR IMPACT ON TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE JET STREAM LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT
WILL DIVE BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK. A RIDGING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS APPROACHING.
AT THE SURFACE...THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A
CONTINUANCE OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE A
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS...ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS
SATURDAY...ONLY TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 950 MB. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE MODERATION WILL BE MORE REMARKABLE AT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST WITH THE INCREASINGLY ONSHORE FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUE TO MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT STILL LIKELY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH LIGHTER WINDS THERE.
A REMARKABLE REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES FREEZING OR BELOW IN
THE MORNING WITH NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST APPROACHING
WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL PRESENT A CHANCE
FOR A WINTRY MIX TO START...CHANGING TO RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AS WARMER AIR RIDES INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
RAIN AT NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE AREA. ALONG WITH THIS WILL ALSO BE ADVECTION
FOG...PATCHY IN NATURE DURING THE AREA BUT LIKELY GROWING IN AREA AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN ANY LULLS IN RAIN ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON A NON-DIURNAL TREND...RISING SLOWLY SUNDAY EVENING.
A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS RAIN COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF SLIGHTLY OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. THE
RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE FRONT. SHARP COLD AIR ADVECTION ON A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS WE
GO THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BY SET
IN THE MORNING WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS BUILDS IN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL BE
BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL AS NEXT THURSDAY AS PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES ALOFT MOVE ACROSS. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK THE DEEP
ANOMALOUS TROUGH PATTERN CHANGES TO MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. ALSO
OF NOTE IS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS FORECAST COULD REACH
0 TO -10 DEGREES F AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER WITH THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
VAST DIFFERENCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO ARE APPARENT WITHIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND MUCH
OF ITS MEMBERS WITH THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SIDES
MORE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A SLOWER FRONTAL SPEED AND MORE
WESTERN TRACK OF THE LOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY***
SNOW OVERSPREADS THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. SNOW BECOMES
MODERATE TO HEAVY WITH LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR FROM AROUND 05Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH FALLING SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM 12Z-14Z FROM WEST TO EAST...BLOWING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR VSBYS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE DAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES OVER WESTERN TERMINALS AND
FROM 8-10 INCHES OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT.
N-NE WINDS (020-040 MAG) AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WILL BACK
TO THE NORTH (350-010 MAG) AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH 30-40 KT
GUSTS BY 05Z. WINDS BACK FURTHER TO THE NW (330-350 MAG) AFTER
12Z FRIDAY.
NW WINDS 20-25G25-35KT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS BY 06Z.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUNDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
KNYC/COASTAL CT/LONG ISLAND/NE NJ TERMINALS AND RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING...IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN RAIN. SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
.MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS BACK TO THE
WEST. 20-30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE.
.TUESDAY...VFR. WEST WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEEPENING DID ADD OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 50 KT FOR THE TWO EASTERN COASTAL OCEAN ZONES OVERNIGHT.
WIND AND GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS
AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS
TIME FRAME...WITH GALES EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL.
GALE CONDITIONS END LATER FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WINDS
DIMINISH QUITE A BIT FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.
ROUGH SEAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SUB SCA SAT MORNING INCREASES TO SCA SOUTHEAST OF LI LATE SAT
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES. A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
BETWEEN 1/2 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALL FALLING AS SNOW.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING.
GENERAL ESTIMATES OF EVENT TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM A MODEL
CONSENSUS ARE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM COMES THRU OVERNIGHT...AS A RESULT PEAK
WINDS DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES IN THE CITY AND ALONG
THE GREAT S BAY. ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT FOR GREAT SOUTH
BAY - WITH MINOR FLOODING MEASURED AT AREA GAUGES THERE.
ACROSS THE SOUND...HIGH TIDE IS AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO THIS LINES UP
BETTER WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS. SEAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT
4 FT ON THE SOUND...SO EXPECT WAVES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 3-6 FT ON
THE N FACING SOUND COASTS. AS A RESULT...THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
THE SURGE TO PRODUCE MODERATE FLOODING. A WRNG HAS THEREFORE BEEN
ISSUED FROM THE BRONX AROUND TO CNTRL SUFFOLK. DUE TO OFFSHORE
COMPONENT WINDS...EXPECTING THE IMPACTS TO BE LESSER FROM
WESTCHESTER TO CT...SO AN ADVY ISSUED FOR THOSE SPOTS. AN INCREASE
OF A HALF FT IN SURGE ABV THE HIGHEST GUIDANCE WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
THESE AREAS TO REACH MODERATE.
AN ADVY HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR SERN LI. THIS IS PRIMARILY FOR THE
N FACING PORTIONS OF THE S FORK AND SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC WHERE WAVE ACTION WILL SUPPLEMENT THE SURGE.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FRIDAY
MRNG/AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN SOUND WHERE
THE ETSS IS TRYING TO HOLD ONTO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WATER.
BECAUSE THIS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER...MINOR OR BLW IS THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME FOR ALL AREAS ATTM.
MINOR BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUND AND
WRN OCEAN...WITH MODERATE EROSION ALONG THE CNTRL AND ERN
OCEANFRONT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ078>081-177-179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ080-
081-179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ073-078-176-
177.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-
350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/MET/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...JC/JM/MET/PW
HYDROLOGY...JM/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1207 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM
FOR THE BLUEGRASS AND FOR AREAS WEST OF I 75 SINCE IT WAS STILL
SNOWING. THE BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM FOR ROAD
CREWS TONIGHT BECAUSE THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE
ROADWAYS WHEN THEY ARE CLEARED. THE NEXT PROBLEM IS THE WIND CHILL
CAUSED BY THE WIND AND THE COLD AIR THAT CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE
AREA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 03Z STILL FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS THOUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A STRONG GRADIENT MAINTAINED AS
WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH
THE AREA. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION HITTING THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS...ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OF 10 TO 20
JOULES AT THE SURFACE...HAS ALLOWED FOR CONTINUED BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT HOURS AS SOME ISOLATED AREAS HAVE
SEEN A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION THAN EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS
WHERE TERRAIN HAS PROFOUND EFFECTS. THIS ALONG WITH THE ALREADY
TREACHEROUS ROADS DUE TO SNOWFALL...BLACK ICE...AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS...HAS LEAD TO THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND
AS WELL AS THE MIDDLE TIER COUNTIES. ALSO CONTINUING A BIT LONGER
TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE
KEEPING THE STRONGER GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE BUMPED UP THE
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS AND GUSTS TO 20 THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z AND BECOMING
LIGHT BY DAWN.
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLING IN WILL DROP SOME
WINDS CHILLS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP AND WSW TO
ADDRESS THESE IMPACT TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SOME SMALLER INTENSE BANDS OF SNOW HAVE SET UP AS WELL. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...TEMPS...WINDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.
HAVE FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SENT THEM TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOW DEEPER LOW JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY WITH
THE TIGHT ISOBARS CROSSING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. THIS IS RESULTING IN
STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BRINGING IN THE MUCH
COLDER AIR. RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND NOW HERE AT JKL. ANOTHER HOUR OR SO IT WILL BE SNOW
EVERYWHERE...IN PLACES THAT STILL ARE PRECIPITATING. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THIS POST FRONTAL SNOW AREA.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER DECENT BATCH OF SNOW IS DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN
INDIANA ON RADAR AND THIS SHOULD MOVE OVER OUR CWA THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM THE LOW 40S NEAR MIDDLESBORO TO
AROUND FREEZING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS ARE PEGGED TO
THE TEMPERATURE IN MOST SPOTS WITH THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS NOW
REPORTED AT MOST OBS SITES IN THE AREA.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE SHARP AND DEEP TROUGH
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA. HEIGHTS WILL THEN QUICKLY CLIMB
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WAVE. FAST...
MOSTLY ZONAL...FLOW FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY VERY
MINOR BITS OF ENERGY FLOATING BY IN THE AIR STREAM AT MID LEVELS.
WITH NO GREAT DISTINCTION IN THE MODELS HAVE FAVORED A BLEND WITH A
LEAN TOWARD THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM SPECIFICS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS. SOME
PLACES...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST...WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW
FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE RESURGENCE AROUND
00Z AS THAT SNOW OVER INDIANA MOVES INTO OUR CWA. EVEN IN THOSE
PLACES...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS WET ROADS A THREAT TO
ICE OVER SINCE THE ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ACCORDINGLY...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT ADVISORY STRUCTURE AND FOCUS
ON THE REFREEZE FOR WESTERN MOST PLACES THAT WILL NOT GET MUCH OF THE
UPSLOPE. OTHERWISE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS/ SQUALLS...COLD TEMPS...
AND LOSS OF SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD HELP THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
ADVISORIES PICK UP SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE SNOWS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT...ENDING LAST IN LOCATIONS
NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS TOWARD DAWN. BY THAT TIME
READINGS WILL BE DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
WINDS RUNNING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN MANY SPOTS DOWN NEAR ZERO. THE QUICK EXIT
OF THE WEATHER MAKER WILL RETURN SUNNY SKIES TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...
BUT CAA AND THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE TEENS
AGAIN ALONG WITH NOTICEABLE RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES.
AGAIN LEANED ON THE SOLID CONSSHORT OR BC VERSION FOR HOURLY TEMPS...
DEWS...AND WINDS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY WITH CONSALL AFTER THAT. AS FOR
POPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE TONIGHT DUE TO IT NOT PICKING UP ON
UPSLOPE SNOWS VERY WELL...DRY AFTER THAT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH ITS QPF THAN THE GFS FOR
THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WEATHER SYSTEM...AND THE
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL LARGE
SCALE WEATHER PATTERN...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...IS SIMILAR
IN BOTH MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...WENT MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION THIS TIME AROUND. TOOK DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS
SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...AS THE MODELS HAVE MORE WESTERLY...AS OPPOSED
TO NORTHWESTERLY...FLOW FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BE MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM TO
BEGIN THE WEEK ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG...WITH A WELL
DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A 50 TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WOULD BRING AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION ALOFT TO AID IN ICE CRYSTAL AND THEREFORE SNOWFLAKE
FORMATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS...DUE TO THE GOOD
DYNAMICS...COULD STILL RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE INITIAL EVENT. BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL
INTO THE AREA TO BEING THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN LOWS COULD CONCEIVABLE
DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 24 TO MINUS 30
RANGE...SUBZERO LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WOULD NOT BE ALL THAT SURPRISING.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL MODIFY ONLY SLIGHT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS PEAKING
IN THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH HIGHS BARELY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 DEGREES NORTH OF I-64. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT...AS WINDS GO NEARLY CALM BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS AND LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
AS WELL...AS THE COLD AIR MASS MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. A
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS TO END THE WEEK...WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IFR AND MVFR FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY 16Z
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
AND WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL FINALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY RETURN FOR THE AREA BY 18Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-079-083-084-104-106-108.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ088-118-120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ068-069-080-
085>087-107-109>117-119.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1124 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THE BIG WEATHER STORY IS THE COLD OUTBREAK EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS IN THE 0 TO 10 BELOW RANGE ARE
EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH.
ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 0 TO
5 BELOW RANGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE LAKESHORE IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAVIER SNOW WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES BACK IN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR 30
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE VERY SHORT TERM IS ASSESSING SNOW POTENTIAL
NEAR THE LAKESHORE...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE SABLE POINTS OF MASON
AND OCEANA COUNTIES. A DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND NEAR THE WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE THIS MORNING IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. THE LAST
SEVERAL HRRR MODEL RUNS...AS WELL AS THE NAM...APPEAR TO BE PLACING
OR MOVING THIS FEATURE TOO FAR EAST TOWARDS THE POINTS.
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL CLEAR OUT OVER INLAND ZONES
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VERY COLD INLAND TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING
AND A LAND BREEZE THAT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF KEEPING THE SNOW BAND
OFFSHORE. DISCUSSED THIS WITH THE GAYLORD OFFICE AND WE BOTH CONCUR
THAT THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. HAVE THEREFORE
TRIMMED POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER. DID NOT CHANGE THE INHERITED FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY POPS INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO CONTINUITY IN TIME AND SPACE. WIND CHILL
VALUES AND SNOWFALL ARE THE CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 0-5 DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY THE
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE BELOW ZERO. VALUES THIS LOW HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN THIS AREA
SINCE FEB 2007. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY.
ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR... STRONG GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THE COLDEST WIND
CHILLS... BETWEEN 20 AND 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND MAYBE A WIND
CHILL WARNING WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE A SNOWY PERIOD OF TIME. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH FROM NEAR THE POLE AND MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. THIS AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND
THE LOW WILL BRING THE COLD AIR... CYCLONIC FLOW AND SNOW. A FEW
SHORTWAVES SHOULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO RESULT IN SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP TO BUMP
UP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE FORM OF SMALL ICE CRYSTALS. THEREFORE THE SNOW WILL NOT
STACK UP... BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL BLOW THIS SNOW AROUND. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
TRUE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ENSUE WEDNESDAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY VFR WEATHER AT THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ALONG THE COAST NEAR KMKG CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
FRIDAY AM AS A BAND OF SNOW PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WE GO THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGEST VALUES WILL
OCCUR ON THE LAKESHORE WHERE VALUES WILL EASILY TOP 25 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND REACH GALES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA. A
SUSPECTED ICE JAM UPSTREAM IS CAUSING A SHARP RISE AT THE SMYRNA
RIVER GAUGE. THE ICE JAM ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER THAT HAS IMPACTED
EVART SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS NOW
ON A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT
EVART AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GAINING ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THOSE RIVERS THAT ICE OVER COMPLETELY WILL HAVE
A MINIMAL ICE JAM THREAT. RIVERS WITH JAGGED ICE BUILDUP ARE IN
DANGER OF EXPERIENCING JAMMING AND RAPID FLUCTUATIONS. WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR. HOPEFULLY RIVER LEVELS
WILL LOCK IN SOMEWHAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
103 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE 06-07 UTC
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NEAR 15
MB/6 HR PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 10 UTC
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH BLOWING
SNOW A THREAT UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 30S BY
MID MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO CLEAN UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN BISMARCK WITH 0.5 INCH ACCUMULATION
AT THE OFFICE. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO TAPER FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE HERE SO NO CHANGES. WILL UPDATE ALL
PRODUCTS SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 827 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS MORE ROBUST THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL UPDATE FLURRIES TO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW AT KBIS SO
FAR. THINK AMOUNTS WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. WITH
HIGHER SLR RATIOS IN THE EASTERN CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH FROM BOTTINEAU...RUGBY AREAS DOWN THROUGH
HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
LATEST RADAR LOOP IS INDICATING LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST RAP MESOSCALE MODEL DEPICTS LIGHT
REFLECTIVITIES TRACKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADD A MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HAVE EXPANDED AREA OF ISOLATED FLURRIES NORTH
AND WEST...AND CONTINUED FLURRIES LATER INTO THE EVENING IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL COVER IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO AVOID CONFUSION FROM MULTIPLE HEADLINES.
12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH BEGINNING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST WITH WIND SPEEDS.
HOWEVER...COMPARING MODELS DURING THE RECENT BLIZZARD EVENT WITH
THE FRIDAY STORM...ALONG WITH CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FRESH SNOW
COVER...THE BALANCE TILTS TOWARD A BLIZZARD WATCH. STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH ANY CRUST THAT DEVELOPS ON
THE LOOSE SNOW DURING THE WARM-UP FRIDAY. HAVE COVERED THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WATCH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS THE NORTH...LESS THAN AN INCH CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN...BUT THE MAIN
TRAVEL HAZARD WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERMS OF A BLIZZARD WATCH ONGOING FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LIFE THREATENING WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 50 AND 60 BELOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER BY 00Z
SATURDAY WITH A SHARP TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND POSSIBLY
ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
MILE. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE SATURDAY MORNING BUT REMAIN
BRISK AT 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BRUTAL H85 TEMPS OF
-35C TO -37C ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THAT WILL BE NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDEST CHUNK OF
AIR. THAT WOULD PUT THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA
POSSIBILITIES TO WITHIN 5 MINUTES OR LESS ON EXPOSED SKIN SURFACES.
A WIND CHILL WARNING HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE HOISTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORMS DURING THE EXTREME COLD SNAP.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH HIGHS 15 TO 25 ABOVE ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 15 BELOW IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO 8
ABOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 15 BELOW TO 30 BELOW...AND HIGHS 15 BELOW TO
25 BELOW ZERO. THESE TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL YIELD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 50 TO 60 BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
IFR STRATUS WITH LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT KBIS
AND KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST 10 UTC. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KTS
TONIGHT AT KJMS WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW. A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TO 45KTS...LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1154 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...SNOW
HAS BEEN MORE HIT AND MISS BUT BLOWING SNOW HAS STARTED GOING
ACROSS THE VALLEY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
GIVEN RADAR RETURNS FROM MINOT AND SFC OBS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF ND...BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING INTO
THE PERIOD JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAP AND NAM SEEM TO DO FAIRLY
WELL WITH THE GOING TRENDS...AND HAVE SOME PRECIP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT TRANSITIONED TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS LATER TONIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES EAST AS THE
MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAKENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT. BLOWING SNOW MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE...BUT NOT
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WEB CAM TRENDS
FOR NOW AND WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THROUGH IN A FLURRY MENTION AFTER 03Z AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME SNOW
REPORTS IN NORTH CENTRAL ND AND THE RAP AND NAM SHOW SOME WEAK QPF
MOVING THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THINK THAT ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO POPS FOR NOW. THE REST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY RISING TEMPS...ALTHOUGH
THE EASTERN COUNTIES MAY BE STEADY FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS AND
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND PREFER THE CONSISTENT GFS/ECMWF
MIX THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THERE WILL BE
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW IN ALL AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
30KT TO MIX FROM THE SOUTH IN THE VALLEY...AND BLOWING SNOW IS
LIKELY WITH VSBYS DOWN TO ONE MILE AT TIMES IN OPEN COUNTRY. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE SOUTH WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH LATE...BUT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY BY 00Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN THE FAR N/NW AFTER 21Z...WITH
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 40-45KT TO MIX
FROM 880MB PER THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE NAM A BIT WEAKER WITH THE
MIXED LAYER. GIVEN THAT THERE WILL BE FALLING SNOW...AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVECTING SOUTH...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEY AFTER 21Z FRI...MOVING INTO THE GFK AREA BY 2Z OR
SO THEN TO FARGO AFTER 3Z. FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE...WILL START THE
BLIZZARD WATCH IN THE NORTH AT 21Z FRI THEN POINTS SOUTH AT 00Z
SAT IN CASE FRONT SPEEDS UP A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
FOR SATURDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG DURING THE MORNING WITH
30-35KT TO MIX UNTIL 18Z SAT. THEREFORE...BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
A PROBLEM IN THE VALLEY WITH LIKELY FALLING TEMPS BELOW ZERO IN ALL
AREAS ON SATURDAY.
FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN...CONTINUED INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE WITH 925MB TEMPS FALLING TO -35C BY SUNDAY EVENING.
COUPLE THIS WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AND 10-25MPH WINDS...LIFE
THREATENING WIND CHILLS TO 60 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE A
DANGEROUS ARCTIC OUTBREAK GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF WIND
CHILLS...SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING/DRIFTING. CAUTION IS URGED BY ANYONE VENTURING OUTDOORS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
FOR MON-THU...THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING TO HOLD A FRIGID ARCTIC AIR MASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING WELL BELOW AVG TEMPS TO THE AREA EARLY IN THE
WEEK. AN UPPER WAVE DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS TUE NIGHT INTO
WED...HOWEVER APPEARS ANY SNOW WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN ND
WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE VALLEY. AN H500 SHORT WAVE
RIDGE THEN CONTINUES THE DRY WEATHER FROM WED TO THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP TO BRING MUCH WELCOMED RELIEF
TO THE FRIGID AIRMASS. TEMPS IN THE TEENS ARE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014
SOME BLOWING SNOW HAS REDUCED VIS AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER CIGS
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...THINK THAT THIS
WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. THINK THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IN AND
OUT OF MVFR TO VFR WITH SOME DROPS TO IFR...AND COVERED THIS WITH
TEMPO GROUPS. THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BRINGING SOME DECREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS FOR A WHILE BUT LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FZRA IN
THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY EVENING...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW REDUCING VIS DOWN TO A MILE OR POSSIBLY LESS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR MNZ004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
624 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN FORMS ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SUNDAY...TRACKING NORTHEAST
INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL SEND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
990 HPA LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES SE OF KMTP AT 11Z. LOW
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO THE NW OF THE LOW PRODUCING SNOW
BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...WITH LIGHTER
SNOW TO THE WEST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM W TO E THIS MORNING BY
AROUND 7 AM OVER FAR WESTERN ZONES 8-9AM AT NYC AND BY 10-11AM OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES.
STILL ON TRACK FOR 8-12 INCHES ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND 6 TO 10
INCHES ELSEWHERE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION THAT COULD HAVE A LINGERING
DEFORMATION BAND OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON -
BUT FOR NOW DO NOT THINK WILL ADD MUCH TO ACCUMULATION. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE THOUGH - AS SOMETIMES THEY ARE GOOD FOR AN
EXTRA INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL.
EVEN AS SNOW SHUTS DOWN - STRONG N-NE WINDS GUSTING TO 30-45 MPH
WILL CAUSING BLOWING OF THE DRY POWDERY SNOW AND VERY LOW WIND CHILLS
- WITH VALUES 15 TO AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES AND 5 TO AROUND 10 BELOW ELSEWHERE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT HAVE LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AS IS.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON - WITH WIND CHILLS INCREASING TO FROM
-10 TO AROUND 0.
FOR HIGHS TODAY TOOK A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM 925 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WITH NAM AND RUC 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE. EXPECT VALUES DURING THE TEENS TODAY - WITH
MOST HIGHS FOR THE DAY REACHED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT - AND THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS LIKELY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TODAY AT SOME CLIMATE SITES. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THE
AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
COUPLED WITH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS
TO PLUMMET TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY FROM 5 ABOVE TO AROUND 10
BELOW - COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS AROUND 20-25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL - AND CONSISTENT WITH TAKING THE LOWEST OF
MAV/MET/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND BLENDING 2 PARTS OF THIS AND
1 PART OF A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES. THIS
INSURES THAT THE FORECAST LOWS ARE COLDER THAN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE
- HOWEVER NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR SEEMED
EXCESSIVELY COLD - ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR CT.
THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES AT SOME LOCATIONS. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...YET AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER FULL LATITUDE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO REAL BLOCK...A NEUTRAL NAO AND PNA...COLD AIR COMES IN
WITH A FURY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ALSO QUICKLY LIFTS OUT IN THE MID
WEEK PERIOD.
MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM WRF ON THE FASTER END OF THE SUITE...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE
MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH...AND THE ECMWF LAGGING JUST BEHIND. GEFS AND
SREF LEANING TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. PREFERENCE RIGHT NOW WAS
TO NOT BREAK MUCH FROM CONTINUITY WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...PREFERRING A FRONTAL PASSAGE CLOSE TO DAYBREAK MON.
WARM ADVECTION RAINS DEVELOP SUN AFT...PRIMARILY FROM NYC POINTS
NORTH AND WEST...WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING WIDESPREAD RAIN
SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THERMO PROFILES SUPPORT AN ALL RAIN
EVENT AS COLD AIR LAGS SUFFICIENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION ENSUES FROM MON MORNING INTO TUE...WITH A
PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE. 85H TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE AROUND
-25 DEGREES F. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS TUE ONLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS INLAND AND THE LOWER TO MID TEENS ALONG THE COAST. ALSO OF
NOTE IS THAT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS FORECAST COULD REACH
0 TO -10 DEGREES F AT TIMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
AIRMASS GRADUALLY MODERATES WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM THROUGH THIS MORNING***
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...WITH
MOSTLY IFR CONDS AND MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES OF ABOUT AN INCH PER
HOUR PER HOUR...SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 11Z-12Z. ALTHOUGH
FALLING SNOW SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FROM 11Z-14Z FROM WEST TO
EAST...BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM 6-8 INCHES AT KSWF...TO 8-10 INCHES OVER WESTERN
TERMINALS AND FROM 8-10 INCHES OVER EASTERN LONG
ELSEWHERE...HIGHEST ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
NORTH WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT...HIGHEST AT THE NYC
METRO AND LONG ISLAND TERMINALS...WILL BACK NW A LITTLE LATER THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...BY ABOUT 14Z-15Z. NW WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMD LIKELY AFTER 12Z TO FINE TUNE WINDS AND
FLIGHT CAT AS SNOW ENDS BUT AS BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SAT THROUGH TUE...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT NW WINDS.
.SAT-SAT NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.
.SUNDAY...MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND RAIN AT THE NYC METRO/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL
CT TERMINALS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MON MORNING...IFR CONDS LIKELY IN RAIN. S WINDS
G20-30KT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING.
.MON AFTERNOON-TUE...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR. W WINDS G20-30 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE STORM CENTER DEEPENS WHILE PASSING SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN WATERS FALL BELOW GALE
WARNING CRITERIA BY AROUND NOON TODAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ALL
WATERS SUBSIDE BELOW GALES BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO TRIM BACK THE GALE WARNING...WILL KEEP THE GALE
WARNING AS IS...LASTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS EVENING...SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS TO START...BUT
QUICKLY SUBSIDING. ONLY THE OCEAN WATERS WILL PROBABLY STILL HAVE
SCA CONDITIONS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ONLY BECAUSE OF SEAS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY ON THE
OCEAN...IF NOT...SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY MID-MORNING.
SUB SCA SAT MORNING INCREASES TO SCA SOUTHEAST OF LI LATE SAT
THROUGH SUN MORNING. THIS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES. A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT IMPACTS THE AREA. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WESTERLY WINDS MON
INTO WED WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS AND NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/10 TO 4/10 OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WILL
FALL MAINLY THIS MORNING...ALL AS SNOW.
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN
COULD COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR
FLOODING. GENERAL ESTIMATES OF EVENT TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS FROM A
MODEL CONSENSUS ARE AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE OCCURS THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT
TIDAL PILING WILL BE MAIN FACTOR FOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THIS
CYCLE. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THAT THIS WILL BE THE HIGHER OF THE TWO
DAILY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES.
THE STEVENS INSTITUTE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BETTER PERFORMER WITH
THIS STORM SO FAR AND WHEN FACTORING IN AN EXTRA RESIDUAL (NOTING
RECENT OBSERVATIONS) ON TOP OF ITS SURGE GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
THIS UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH WAVES AND A SE SWELL
FOR A GOOD PORTION LEADING UP TO THE MID-MORNING HOURS...THE
SOUTH-SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU AND QUEENS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. IT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE PARTS OF THE LOWER
HARBOR...BUT THINKING IS THAT ANY MODERATE FLOODING WOULD BE JUST
ISOLATED.
WITH THIS SAID...WILL BE GOING WITH A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS WHERE
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE WARRANTED. ALSO...NO HEADLINES FOR
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTY AS THEY LIKELY FALL SHORT OF MINOR
THRESHOLDS.
THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE HOWEVER SOUTHERN NASSAU AND
QUEENS DON/T EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOODING...AND INSTEAD
JUST HAVE MINOR FLOODING. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX COUNTY DO NOT EVEN REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
NOT EXPECTING ANY COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES WITH TONIGHT/S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE AS IT WILL BE THE LOWER OF THE TWO TIDE CYCLES AND TIDAL
PILING WOULD NO LONGER BE A FACTOR.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE RECORDS FOR JANUARY 3:
LOCATION RECORD LOW HIGH FORECAST VALUE
BRIDGEPORT...CT 16 1981 17
ISLIP...NY 20 2008 13
LAGUARDIA...NY 17 1981 18
JFK AIRPORT...NY 22 2008/1981 17
NYC-CENTRAL PARK...NY 12 1918 16
NEWARK...NJ 19 1981 17
LOCATION RECORD LOW FORECAST VALUE
BRIDGEPORT...CT 9 2008 9
ISLIP...NY 7 2001 10
LAGUARDIA...NY 12 1981 7
JFK AIRPORT...NY 14 2008 11
NYC-CENTRAL PARK...NY -4 1879 8
NEWARK...NJ 10 1981 8
CLIMATE RECORDS FOR JANUARY 4:
LOCATION RECORD LOW FORECAST VALUE
BRIDGEPORT...CT -1 1981 1
ISLIP...NY 10 2008 2
LAGUARDIA...NY 4 1981 2
JFK AIRPORT...NY 8 1981 3
NYC-CENTRAL PARK...NY -3 1981 2
NEWARK...NJ 1 1981 1
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR CTZ009>011.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ071-073-078-079-176-177.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ078>081-
177-179.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067>075-176-178.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ072-
074-075.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ178-
179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ080-081.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT/PW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/DW
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
.DISCUSSION...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...
...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER TODAY...
CURRENT...VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUING ACROSS ECFL THIS MORNING.
BOTH RUC ANLYS FIELDS AND THE MORNING RAOBS FROM JAX/TBW/XMR SHOW
NEARLY SATURATED AND DIVGT CONDITIONS IN THE H50-H20 LAYER ACTING
TO PRODUCE THOSE CLOUDS. ALSO...AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CAA-INDUCED
CLOSED-CELL MARINE STRATOCU IS ALREADY IMPINGING UPON COASTAL
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES. CCAFS 915MHZ WIND PROFILER DATA IS
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS....SHOWING 0-2KM WINDS ALREADY STARTING TO
VEER TO 360-010.
STRONG CAA HAS BEEN WINNING OUT OVER WEAK EARLY JAN/EARLY MORNING
DIURNAL HEATING AS TEMPS AREAWIDE HAVE CONTINUED TO EITHER SLOWLY
DROP OR HOLD STEADY IN THE 2-3HRS SINCE SUNRISE. THIS HAS ALSO
KEPT WCI VALUES IN LAKE/VOLUSIA COS IN THE L30S...SO HAVING THE
NPW/WCA ISSUED UNTIL 10AM TODAY WAS AN EXCELLENT CALL BY THE THU
AFTERNOON SHIFT.
REST OF TODAY...BLUSTERY AND CHILLY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RELAX AS THEY TRY
AND VEER TO NNE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
IN THE CAA PATTERN WITH MAXES RANGING FROM ~50F AROUND LAKE GEORGE
AND THE OCALA FOREST...TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY...WHICH
MEANS 50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP...
WIND AND SKY COVER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS
WILL CHANGE ALL THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO "MOSTLY CLOUDY" OR BECOMING
SO BY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MARINE CLOUDS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CIGS AOB BKN-OVC150 WILL GRADUALLY LIFT ENE AWAY
FROM THE AREA AS H25 JET STREAK/ATTENDANT MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MVFR CIGS BKN-OVC025-030 CURRENTLY INVADING OMN-DAB-EVB-TIX WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ALONG THE MLB-VRB-FPR CORRIDOR AS 0-1KM
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...GIVEN CURRENT WIND/SEA CONDITIONS AT 41009/41012...AS
WELL AS WINDS AT SPGF1...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE GALE
WARNING (FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE) INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR WINDS/SEAS CONTINUE ON TRACK.
&&
UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014/
TONIGHT...RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR AS WINDS VEER
ONSHORE...PUSHING WARM OCEAN AIR AND A BLANKET OF MARINE STRATOCU
BACK ACRS CENTRAL FL. SO RAPID THE MODIFICATION WILL BE THAT SOME
"MIN" TEMPS ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS TONIGHT ACTUALLY MAY
BE WARMER THAN THIS AFTN "MAX" TEMPS...CERTAINLY A DIFFERENCE OF
ARND 5F BTWN THE TWO WILL BE COMMON. INTERIOR TEMPS WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGS BLO AVG ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR (L/M40S)...WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BLO 10MPH AFT SUNSET...LCL CRITERIA FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY NOT EXPECTED.
PRECIP NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION....BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE...VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE WELL BLO 10KFT. ANY IMPACT
FROM SUCH LOW TOPPED SHRAS WOULD BE MINIMAL...WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY
THRU DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
ALLOWING FOR MARINE CLOUDINESS TO PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL.
SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND A MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SPREAD CLOUDINESS ACROSS SRN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SOME LATE
DAY SHOWERS MAY ALSO BREAK OUT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THE ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE RELATIVELY WARM ATLC WILL ALLOW FOR A 15-20 WARM UP IN
TEMPS FROM VERY COOL FRIDAY READINGS. WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 70 NORTH
COASTAL AREAS TO MID 70S SRN SECTIONS.
SAT NIGHT...MID LVL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK NE ACROSS SRN FL WITH
VEERING LOW LVL FLOW. NAM KEEPS MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP OFF THE
TREASURE COAST WHILE 18Z/00Z GFS ALLOWS SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH
HEALTHIER QPF FROM BREVARD SOUTH TO MARTIN COUNTY. WILL LEAN TWD THE
GFS AND SHOW HIGH CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH LOWER CHC POPS TO
SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS NRN INTERIOR SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 50S
NORTH AND MID 60S S CSTL.
SUNDAY...LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND ADEQUATE
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO MOS AROUND 30 PCT FOR LAKE COUNTY TO 50 PCT
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
MONDAY....A REINFORCING TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY AND ALLOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE DOWN THE FL PENINSULA.
THE FAST MOVING FRONT WILL NOT HAVE SUBSTANTIAL PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH...EXCEPT ACROSS S FL. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS NRN AREAS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SRN
AREAS. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
THE LWR MS VALLEY INTO THE SE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST
PROLONGED STRETCH OF COLD NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW FOR AROUND 36 HOURS
THIS WINTER SEASON. THIS WILL PRODUCE TWO COLD NIGHTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOW INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL AND 40S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SRN TREASURE COAST.
WED-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MID ATLC ON WEDNESDAY
AND OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK ALLOW LOW LVL WINDS TO VEER TO
ONSHORE OFF THE RELATIVELY MILD ATLANTIC WATERS. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THU INTO FRI WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO MID TO
UPPER 70S MOST AREAS. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 03/12Z...W/NW SFC WND G21-25KT...AREAS CIGS BTWN FL020-030 LCL
CIGS BTWN FL010-020. BTWN 03/12Z-03/22Z...N/NW SFC WND G22-26KTS...
VFR ALL SITES. AFT 03/22Z...VFR CIGS BTWN FL030-040 COASTAL SITES...
BTWN FL040-050 INTERIOR SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS A POST FRONTAL HI
PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE GREAT LAKES
GENERATES A STRONG N/NW BREEZE WITH NEAR GALE STRENGTH OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. OFFSHORE DATA BUOYS ALREADY
MEASURING 25-30KT NW WINDS WITH FRQT GUSTS AOA GALE FORCE. SEAS HAVE
YET TO RESPOND TO THE INCREASED WINDS BUT WILL BUILD STEADILY TO
6-8FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 12FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY AS WINDS VEER
TO THE N/NE AND COUNTER THE SRLY GULF STREAM CURRENT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BLO SCA CRITERIA AFT SUNSET AS THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN...THOUGH OVERALL
CONDITION WILL REMAIN QUITE POOR.
CURRENT GALE/SCA CONFIGURATION LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL EXTEND THE
EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE SCA TO 09Z AREAWIDE...AND TO 15Z FOR THE
OFFSHORE LEG.
EAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING TO 4-6 FT. SE/S FLOW AT 10-15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. NEXT FRONT
WILL BRING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS DURING THE DAY AND WINDS INCREASE TO 25
KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-13 FEET BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE OFFSHORE AND GULF
STREAM WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RHS WILL APPROACH 35 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH BREEZY N WINDS. ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY MISSING BUT WITH SOME
RAIN YESTERDAY WILL HOLD OFF ANY RED FLAG HEADLINES. ONSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY WILL MITIGATE ANY LOW RH CONCERNS. STRONG AND GUSTY NW
WINDS NEXT MONDAY AND LOW RH MAY REQUIRE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...TEMPERATURES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AT
ORLANDO/MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH AND IN THE UPPER 50S AT DAYTONA
BEACH WILL BE THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 50 47 70 60 / 10 10 20 20
MCO 56 46 73 59 / 0 10 10 30
MLB 56 53 73 64 / 10 10 20 50
VRB 59 54 74 63 / 10 10 20 50
LEE 50 40 70 57 / 0 10 10 20
SFB 53 45 72 59 / 0 10 10 20
ORL 54 46 72 60 / 0 10 10 30
FPR 60 55 74 64 / 10 10 20 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 AM
SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
FCST ON TRACK. DID ADJUST TEMPS SLIGHTLY THSI MORNING BUT OVERALL
THINGS SEEM OK. REPORT OF AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW IN WARROAD-
BAUDETTE AREA. WINDS STARTING TO DIMINISH A BIT IN THE RRV AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IN ERN MT. LATEST RAP MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOW THIS AFTN AND THIS COULD CAUSE
ISSUES IF HEAVY ENOUGH DUE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
MANY ISSUES TO START WITH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CALGARY
ALBERTA ATTM AND THIS WILL TRACK AS EXPECTED TO NEAR GRAND FORKS
BY 00Z...THEN EAST THRU NRN MN TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWS
IN FAR NW MN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SNOW ASSOC
WITH SFC LOW ARRIVES IN THAT AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. COORD WITH
DLH AND BASED ON SNOWFALL FCST OF 3-5 INCHES IN ROSEAU-WARROAD-
BAUDETTE-WASKISH WILL GO WINTER WX ADVISORY 12Z FRI-12Z SAT.
SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK EXPECT A WARM AIR SURGE EAST THIS AFTN INTO
THE DVL BASIN MIDDAY AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID TO LATE
AFTN WITH TEMPS LOWER 30S IN DVL BASIN AND UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S IN
THE MID/SRN RRV. SOUTH OF THE LOW NOT MUCH PRECIP...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SHARPENING 500 MB
TROUGH IN SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN MID TO LATE AFTN. IN THIS WARMER
AIR ALOFT REGION...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WOULD BE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TYPE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. NORTH OF THE LOW
SNOW WILL DROP INTO NRN ND MID AFTN INTO LATE AFTN. SFC LOW
POSITION NEAR GRAND FORKS AT 00Z WOULD MEAN NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NW FCST AREA-FAR NRN RRV AROUND 21-22Z AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LOW AFTER 00Z. GFS MODEL A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP/WIND THAN PAST RUNS AND 06Z NAM PRETTY
STRONG TOO AND WITH A SHARP SURGE OF COLD SFC-925 MB TEMPS AND
GOOD MIXED LAYER TO 925 MB WHERE WINDS WILL BE 45 KTS WOULD EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON TIMING OF WINDS WILL
HOIST BLIZZARD WARNING FOR FAR NRN RRV/DVL BASIN STARTING AT 21Z
FRI THRU 15Z SAT. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY GRAND FORKS
SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF START TIME NOT TIL AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP
WATCH AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO FINE TUNE BEGINNING OF WARNING
HEADLINES. FRESH SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH AN
INCH OR MAYBE TWO CANDO-GRAFTON-HALLOCK WITH THAT HEAVIER SNOWFALL
MORE TOWARD ROSEAU EASTWARD. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. FOR AREAS OF MINNESOTA NOT IN LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA NOR IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY (TVF-BJI SOUTHWARD)
COULD SEE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFT DETERMINE
EXTENT AND TIMING OF THAT.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIMITED AND CLEARING WORKS IN. TEMPS WILL
FALL SLOWLY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HOLDING UP AND WIND CHILL WILL DROP INTO
ADVISORY AND THEN WARNING CRITERIA BY 12Z SUN.
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MAIN COLD SHOT AT LEAST AT 925-850 MB LAYER AS
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SUN-SUN NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPS SUN NIGHT FROM GOING OFF THE DEEP END...TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE IN ALBERTA-
SASK-MONTANA WILL CREATE A STIFF NORTHWEST BREEZE AND VERY LOW
WIND CHILLS. WILL ADDRESS WIND CHILL WARNINGS AS NEEDED ONCE THIS
BLIZZARD SYSTEM DEPARTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. BOTH SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA BY MID-WEEK WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORT-WAVES
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE DEEP FREEZE WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT EXPECT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEREAFTER AS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO THE EAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RISE ABOVE ZERO WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AT FAR/GFK
MAINLY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW OVER THE SENSOR. OTHERWISE WITHOUT
BLOWING SNOW MOST CIGS IN THE LOW END VFR RANGE. VSYBS REDUCED IN
BLOWING SNOW TO 1-3SM IN THE RRV WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM AS WELL BY
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. QUESTION IS CHANCE FOR
FREEZING PRECIP THIS AFTN ESP AT GFK/FAR. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF
DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINITY ON WHEN/HOW MUCH. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS (OR HIGHER) FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH DVL/RRV BASIN. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER
AND VSBYS TOO TO IFR LEVELS IN THIS REGION. A BIT HIGHER VSBYS
BEMIDJI BUT STILL SOME SNOWFALL TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THIEF RIVER FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED CEILOMETER OUTAGE
AND AWAITING A REPLACEMENT WENT AMENDMENT NOT SCHEDULED (AMD NOT
SKED) DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINITY OF CIGS TODAY-TONIGHT AND NO REAL
WAY TO CHECK IN REAL TIME, SO UPDATES WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY
MAJOR TAF ISSUANCE TIMES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MNZ004-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ005-006-
009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 PM MST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH STILL MOVING INTO NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN...BEGINNING TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP. NO
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ACROSS MOUNTAINS...CLOSEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHERN UTAH. WINDS A BIT GUSTY IN AND NEAR
FOOTHILLS AND ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH MIXING AND
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF TROUGH. WESTERLY WINDS
HAVE SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS DIA WHICH HELPED TO WARM TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR 60. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN SOUTHWARD TOWARD COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO WESTERN
COLORADO OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS MOUNTAINS. OROGRAPHICS WILL IMPROVE BY
03Z ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL QG ASCENT AS JET SAGS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD COLORADO. SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP
BY THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 31...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH IMPROVING OROGRAPHICS AND
LIFT. MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 06Z...WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE SNOWFALL. ALSO THE
APPROACHING JET WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VERTICAL MOTION. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW BY MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES. CURRENT HILITES STILL LOOK
REASONABLE...WITH THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONE 31. DID DELAY
THE ONSET OF THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 30..32..33 AND 34 UNTIL 03Z
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS...GUSTY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS BEFORE
DECREASING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF WYOMING AROUND 06Z AND ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA BY 09Z. UPSLOPE WILL THEN DEVELOP AROUND 12Z. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN AND
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS BY MORNING AS LIFT INCREASES. ON
SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COMBINATION OF GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND MID LEVEL QG ASCENT WITH
JET IN VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HILITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS...INCREASING UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT
WILL BRING A DECENT SHOT OF SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN AND
NEAR FOOTHILLS. LATEST MODELS STILL SHOWING AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 4
INCH RANGE. NAM ON THE LOW END...GFS THE HIGHER END ACROSS THE
DENVER AREA SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. THERE IS STILL SOME
CHANCE FOR A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON AND COULD HELP PRODUCE MORE SNOW. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LOWER AMOUNTS AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT
DEVELOPS BEFORE ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES. AIRMASS TO BE COLDER...
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE MIDDLE 20S ACROSS
PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...THE AMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL JETSTREAM OVER COLORADO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AROUND 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BANDED
SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...BUT MDLS NOT DEVELOPING MUCH
QPF AT THIS TIME SO WL STICK TO SLGT CHC POPS. IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SO WL ADD AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW TO THE GRIDS. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO INCREASING STABILITY. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR SUNDAY EVENING...WL KEEP THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LOCKED IN THE
FREEZER THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE
WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM
MAY MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY BUT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. IT WILL BE DRY AGAIN ON THURSDAY
WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER COLORADO...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
POTENTIAL TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW WL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SNOW CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS...WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT BJC. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST RAP INDICATING WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY 02Z. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DRAINAGE WINDS COULD
DEVELOP AT KDEN AND KAPA DURING THE EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z. WILL TREND THE TAFS IN THAT DIRECTION.
MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL. FRONT STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA AROUND 09Z WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS UPSLOPE DEVELOPS
BY 12Z ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 00Z AS UPSLOPE WEAKENS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL EXPECTED FOR AREA
AIRPORTS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ030-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....COOPER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
958 AM MST FRI JAN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...MIXING HAS COMMENCED IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS MOST AREAS. GRADIENT ACROSS STATE FROM GRAND
JUNCTION TO DENVER HAS INCREASED TO 10.27 MB. SOME GUSTS TO 40
MPH BEING REPORTED AT KBJC AS WELL AS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF
JEFFERSON COUNTY. SHOULD SEE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AND
NEAR FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND JET. LATEST RAP
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 60
KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP BY 00Z. MODELS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS IN AND
NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP THROUGH THE EVENING. SO NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO
EXCEED HIGH WIND CRITERIA. STILL...WOULD SUSPECT THERE WILL BE
SOME GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE RIDGES AS WELL AS WIND PRONE AREAS
OF THE FOOTHILLS. WILL BOOST THE WINDS A BIT IN THE GRIDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS. UPPER TROUGH STILL MOVING INTO
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING ACROSS UTAH AND WESTERN WYOMING. MOISTURE WILL BE
GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
CROSS SECTIONS KEEP MOISTURE ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP. LATEST RAP SHOWS
SOME QPF ACROSS ZONE 31 AROUND 00Z. WILL BE BACKING OFF ON THE
CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE TO
THEN DEEPEN THIS EVENING AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
OROGRAPHICS IMPROVE. SHOULD BE A GOOD SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HILITES LOOK
FINE. TIMING OKAY FOR NOW...AS SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
AFTER 00Z.
.AVIATION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ONGOING AT KBJC WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KTS. SOUTHWESTERLIES ONGOING AT KDEN AND KAPA. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 20 OR 21Z
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 22 KTS AT KDEN AND KAPA. WINDS TO THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 01Z. CURRENT TAFS SHOW THIS TREND
AND STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING
ISSUANCE. SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BY THE
EVENING...CEILINGS TO REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS AREA AROUND 09Z WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS TO
LOWER BY 11Z WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH IFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. AT THIS TIME...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM MST FRI JAN 3 2014/
SHORT TERM...WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF TONIGHTS PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. WEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN DENVER SUBURBS HAVE
HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S THIS
MORNING. ELSEWHERE ON THE PLAINS...LOWS HAVE DROPPED AS LOW AS THE
MID TEENS AND LOWER 20S. AFTER SUNRISE...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME
WELL MIXED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING BY AFTERNOON. THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAIN RIDGES SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY BECAUSE OF THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE STATE.
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW FAVORED LOCATIONS ON
THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES...BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NECESSARY.
TONIGHT WILL SEE BIG CHANGES SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE STATE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MOVE
FROM THE WYOMING BORDER TO THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
6 AM. ALOFT...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY
STRONG JET WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING VERICAL MOTIONS AND BANDED
PRECIPITATION FIELDS. MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD SEE OROGRAPHIC
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE
EVENING. ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THE MOUNTAINS...IT SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES
30...32...33 AND 34 AND A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 31 WHERE
AMOUNTS WILL BE HEAVIEST.
LONG TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SAT AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND A STG CDFNT. COMBINATION OF
FAVORABLE MID LEVEL QG ASCENT THRU THE AFTN HOURS AND AXIS OF
UPPER LEVEL JET SAGGING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO A DECENT
SHOT OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS. APPEARS BANDED PCPN WILL BE ALONG THE
CO-WY BORDER AT 12Z AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THRU THE AFTN HOURS
WITH BAND EXITING SRN AREAS OF CWA BY LATE AFTN. GFS IS CERTAINLY
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOW AMOUNTS ON SAT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA (3 TO 6 INCHES) OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITHIN A 12 HOUR WINDOW WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MORE
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. IF BANDED PCPN DOES OCCUR AND MOISTURE
DEPTH IS DEEPER THEN GFS MAY END BE CORRECT WITH SNOW AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE IF AMOUNTS WILL REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER NERN CO. IN THE MTNS AMOUNTS MAY REACH
WARNING CRITERIA IN ZN 31 WITH HIGH END ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN ZNS 33
AND 34 THRU SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES AS WELL SO
WILL SEE BLOWING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER PASSES. HIGHER VALLEYS IN
ZNS 30 AND 32 MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL ON SAT DUE TO
BANDED PCPN SO WILL INCLUDE THEM AS WELL. HIGHS ON SAT WILL STAY
IN THE 20S OVER NERN CO.
BY SAT NIGHT THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL WEAKEN WITH MID LVL DESCENT OVER
THE AREA. THUS SNOW CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS NERN CO. IN THE
MTNS OROGRAPHICS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE SAT NIGHT ALTHOUGH STABILITY
WILL INCREASE SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. ON SUN STG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE AREA. OROGRAPHICS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE MTNS HOWEVER MOISTURE DEPTH WILL DECREASE
SOME SO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO
NERN CO SUN AFTN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE. AS THE STG UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS SUN
AFTN INTO SUN EVENING THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF BANDED PCPN
OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO PROBABLY NORTH OF A DENVER TO LIMON LINE.
SINCE THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION A
SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW. HIGHS COULD END UP BEING COLDER THAN SAT OVER
NERN CO AS READINGS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABV 20.
FOR MON THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. CURRENT CROSS-
SECTIONS SHOW MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL NOT
MENTION ANY POPS. AS FAR AS HIGHS WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 20S
ALTHOUGH AREAS OVER THE FAR ERN PLAINS MAY STILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABV
20. BY TUE WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH MODELS NOT SHOWING
MUCH MOISTURE THRU THE AFTN HOURS SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW POPS IN
THE MTNS. HIGHS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER NERN CO WITH READINGS
RISING BACK INTO THE 30S. FOR WED A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW TO THE MTNS. OVER NERN CO
WILL KEEP FCST DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION...KDEN AND KAPA SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY
WINDS THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AT KBJC...WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...
STILL EXPECT COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE DENVER AREA AFTER 2 AM
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SNOWFALL DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
EXPECTED ALL DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ030-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR COZ031.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RPK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1254 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
THE BIG WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF AN ARCTIC BLAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
COMING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANTIME...WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY BEFORE LAKE CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE WIND IS GOING TO PICK
UP AND WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE EARLY TODAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
0. WIND CHILLS 20 TO 30 BELOW SEEM LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER
AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR
MUSKEGON...BUT BOTH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS WEAK.
REGARDING INCREASING WIND LATER TODAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXPOSED LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE NORTH
/I.E... THE SABLE POINTS/ COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. GIVEN A WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INLAND EXTENT TO THE STRONGEST
WINDS SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICES...
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS
ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA.
A BIT MORE CERTAIN IS DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREFORE PLAN TO ISSUE A SEPARATE WATCH TO COVER THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING AND THEN SNOW
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER DRAGGING THE ARCTIC
FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT...WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD FALL JUST SHY. WIND
CHILLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND WEST OF US-131 AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ACCUMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR
ALONG WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS TEMPS MAKE A RUN AT 30 IN SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL MUCH COLDER. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ACCUMS IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE SEEM POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN THE DGZ
AS IT LOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPS WON/T MOVE MUCH SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM.
WIND CHILL READINGS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AROUND -25 OR
COLDER WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR THE FIRST
DAY BACK TO SCHOOL.
SINCE WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY
MONDAY... THE HIGH TEMP FOR MONDAY 1/6 WILL PROBABLY BE THE MIDNIGHT
READING. TEMPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY FALL BELOW ZERO.
IF IT TURNS OUT THAT THE HIGH ON MONDAY IS ONLY AROUND ZERO... THIS
COULD BE IN THE TOP TEN COLDEST HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST AT GRR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE VERY COLD TEMPS AND SNOW WILL
MAKE ROADS ICY AND CHEMICALS WILL PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE.
TOTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
GIVEN THAT A DGZ WILL NOT BE PRESENT DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS.
THAT MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SLIGHT WARMING
ALLOWS THE DGZ TO RETURN TO THE CLOUD LAYER.
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT ON TUESDAY... THE
SNOW THREAT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER H5
TROUGH DIGS WEST OF MI AND MAY INDUCE WARM ADVECTION SNOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FEET AT MUSKEGON
DUE TO A SNOWBAND... WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL INGREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH STEADY WINDS BY MORNING OF 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS NEAR THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT COULD GUST AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND REACH GALES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA. A
SUSPECTED ICE JAM UPSTREAM IS CAUSING A SHARP RISE AT THE SMYRNA
RIVER GAUGE. THE ICE JAM ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER THAT HAS IMPACTED
EVART SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS NOW
ON A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT
EVART AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GAINING ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THOSE RIVERS THAT ICE OVER COMPLETELY WILL HAVE
A MINIMAL ICE JAM THREAT. RIVERS WITH JAGGED ICE BUILDUP ARE IN
DANGER OF EXPERIENCING JAMMING AND RAPID FLUCTUATIONS. WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR. HOPEFULLY RIVER LEVELS
WILL LOCK IN SOMEWHAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...63
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1134 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
THE BIG WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
OF AN ARCTIC BLAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
COMING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANTIME...WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE
TODAY BEFORE LAKE CLOUDS DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE WIND IS GOING TO PICK
UP AND WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE EARLY TODAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE
0. WIND CHILLS 20 TO 30 BELOW SEEM LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER
AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
DOMINANT LAKE SNOW BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR
MUSKEGON...BUT BOTH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS WEAK.
REGARDING INCREASING WIND LATER TODAY...LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXPOSED LAKESHORE AREAS TO THE NORTH
/I.E... THE SABLE POINTS/ COULD SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING
MET AT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. GIVEN A WIND DIRECTION GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INLAND EXTENT TO THE STRONGEST
WINDS SO DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA OFFICES...
WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY BE TRAVEL RELATED AS
ALREADY ICY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE AREA.
A BIT MORE CERTAIN IS DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEREFORE PLAN TO ISSUE A SEPARATE WATCH TO COVER THIS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING AND THEN SNOW
POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER DRAGGING THE ARCTIC
FRONT APPROACHES. IN FACT...WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD FALL JUST SHY. WIND
CHILLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 10 TO 15 BELOW RANGE FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CLIMBING THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP NORTH OF MUSKEGON AND WEST OF US-131 AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ACCUMS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS MOISTURE IS A LIMITING FACTOR
ALONG WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS TEMPS MAKE A RUN AT 30 IN SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL MUCH COLDER. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ACCUMS IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE SEEM POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME OMEGA IN THE DGZ
AS IT LOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPS WON/T MOVE MUCH SUNDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING CONTINUE TO BE THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM.
WIND CHILL READINGS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AROUND -25 OR
COLDER WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR THE FIRST
DAY BACK TO SCHOOL.
SINCE WE WILL BE COLD ADVECTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY
MONDAY... THE HIGH TEMP FOR MONDAY 1/6 WILL PROBABLY BE THE MIDNIGHT
READING. TEMPS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY FALL BELOW ZERO.
IF IT TURNS OUT THAT THE HIGH ON MONDAY IS ONLY AROUND ZERO... THIS
COULD BE IN THE TOP TEN COLDEST HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST AT GRR.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
131 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THAT MAY PRODUCE TRAVEL IMPACTS. THE VERY COLD TEMPS AND SNOW WILL
MAKE ROADS ICY AND CHEMICALS WILL PROBABLY BE INEFFECTIVE.
TOTAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
GIVEN THAT A DGZ WILL NOT BE PRESENT DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR MASS.
THAT MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SLIGHT WARMING
ALLOWS THE DGZ TO RETURN TO THE CLOUD LAYER.
ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR LIFTS OUT ON TUESDAY... THE
SNOW THREAT CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER H5
TROUGH DIGS WEST OF MI AND MAY INDUCE WARM ADVECTION SNOWS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST FRI JAN 3 2014
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MKG... VFR LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE TONIGHT
WHEN GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
AT MKG... A BAND OF DISSIPATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL COME ONSHORE
AROUND MID MORNING BRINGING MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS... AND POSSIBLY A
PERIOD OF IFR. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40
KTS AT TIMES AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A WARNING. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH
THAT WINDS WILL REALLY PICK UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND REACH GALES LATE IN THE DAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 236 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014
A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA. A
SUSPECTED ICE JAM UPSTREAM IS CAUSING A SHARP RISE AT THE SMYRNA
RIVER GAUGE. THE ICE JAM ON THE MUSKEGON RIVER THAT HAS IMPACTED
EVART SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED. THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT EVART IS NOW
ON A GRADUAL DECLINE. THE FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR THE MUSKEGON RIVER AT
EVART AND THE PERE MARQUETTE RIVER AT SCOTTVILLE HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GAINING ICE COVERAGE AND THICKNESS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THOSE RIVERS THAT ICE OVER COMPLETELY WILL HAVE
A MINIMAL ICE JAM THREAT. RIVERS WITH JAGGED ICE BUILDUP ARE IN
DANGER OF EXPERIENCING JAMMING AND RAPID FLUCTUATIONS. WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BY A BLAST OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR. HOPEFULLY RIVER LEVELS
WILL LOCK IN SOMEWHAT WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
BEFORE THE MAIN SURGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AHEAD OF THIS AIR MASS HAS MODIFIED
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS EVENING
AS IT MOVES FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADAR ALSO ALREADY INDICATED A LARGE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ND...SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL SD. ABV THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 85H
TEMPS NEAR +6C IN WC MN TO NEAR 0C IN EC MN. HOWEVER...IN THE LOWEST
1-2K...TEMPS WERE NEAR -10C IN EC MN...TO -4C IN WC MN. THE DEPTH OF
THE COLDER TEMPS IN EASTERN MN WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY SLEET AND SOME
-SN. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE PRECIPITATION HAS A BETTER
CHC OF HOLDING AS LIQUID AND NOT REFREEZING IN THE FORM OF SLEET.
THEREFORE...A BETTER CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WC MN
DURING THE EVENING HRS BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES AFT MIDNIGHT.
DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH FURTHER THE WARMER AIR ADVECTS TO THE
EAST...WILL DEPEND IF EASTERN MN GETS MORE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
WC WI WILL LIKELY REMAIN SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW. QPF
AMTS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT EVEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN CAN CAUSE HAZARDOUS ROADS IF NOT TREATED. A WINTER WX
ADV WAS ISSUED BASED ON THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION AND THEN BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY SMALL CHGS IN THE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY AS TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WIND
CHILL VALUES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM -30 TO -35F
IN CENTRAL/WC MN...TO AROUND -15 IN WC WI.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
THE WORST ARCTIC OUTBREAK SO FAR THIS COLD SEASON WILL BE UNDERWAY
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DRIVE A POLAR VORTEX... CURRENTLY OVER THE YUKON... TO NEAR KDLH BY
SUNDAY EVENING... WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES BELOW 486
(DAM). VERTICAL PROFILES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850MB SHOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE -30 TO -35 DEG C RANGE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS UPCOMING COLD IS QUITE SIMILAR PATTERN-WISE TO
THAT IN EARLY JANUARY 1982. A CHECK ON WEATHER MAPS DURING THAT
COLD OUTBREAK SHOWED THE UPPER LOW BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STAYING WELL WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE FA. THIS RESULTS IN THE LIKELYHOOD OF SOME CLOUDINESS
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ALSO A NW WIND FROM 10 TO
20 MPH IN THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC COLD. MSP DURING THE COLD WAVE
IN EARLY JANUARY 1982 HAD A LOW TEMPERATURES OF -26 DEG F. IN
FACT...LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA REACHED -25 TO -32 DEG F. THIS IS
VERY SIMILAR THE FORECAST VALUES AHEAD.
TODAY/S FORECAST HAS LOWS DROPPING BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING AND
NOT RISING ABOVE ZERO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS A RUN OF 88 HOURS
BELOW ZERO FOR MSP. NOT A TOP 10 RECORD... WHICH RUNS FROM 186
HOURS DOWN TO 130 HOURS. THE WORST STRETCH OF COLD IS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE -25
TO -32 DEG F RANGE... WITH -27 FOR MSP (THIS WOULD TIE THE RECORD).
THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE COLDEST MSP HAS BEEN SINCE DECEMBER 26TH
1996. THE ECE AND GFS MOS FOR MSP ARE -27 AND -29 DEG F
RESPECTIVELY. THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW HIGHS ON
MONDAY WITH VALUES ONLY FORECAST IN THE -14 TO -20 DEG F RANGE. WE
HAVE MSP AT -17 FOR THE HIGH ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD LOW
HIGH (-14). MONDAY NIGHT WE ARE BACK DOWN IN THE -20 TO -26 DEG F
RANGE WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...NW WINDS WILL BE BLOWING THE WHOLE TIME.
WIND CHILL VALUES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE -50 TO
-60 DEG F RANGE WITH VALUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE -40 TO -50 DEG F RANGE. A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 PM SATURDAY UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY.
THE BALANCE OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE ONE OF TEMPERATURE MODERATION
AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HIGHS INCREASE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER 20S BY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/GEM AND EC ON HOW CLOSE WE
WILL BE TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SNOW EVENT. THE GEM AND GFS WOULD
JUST NICK OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WHILE THE EC WOULD BRING
THE SNOW THROUGH A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE. COLLABORATION TODAY
WAS TO KEEP VERY SMALL POPS CONFINED TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE TWIN CITIES FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
MAIN CHG TO THIS AVIATION TAF PERIOD IS TO CONCENTRATE ON TIMING
OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WC MN/CENTRAL MN
TOWARD 22-00Z. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/MVFR
IN BLSN WITH CIGS HOLDING ARND 1K...TO LOCALLY 2-3K IN WC WI.
A WARM LAYER ABV THE SFC (85H) IS NOTED IN WESTERN MN... AND AS
FAR EAST AS AXN/MKT TO AEL BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AT 17Z. STRONG
WSW WINDS AT 85H WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THESE HIGHER TEMPS
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP SUB-FREEZING LAYER BLW 90H WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE REFREEZING
OF THE PRECIPITATION. EC MN WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SLEET WITH
STC/RWF/AXN A PERIOD OF FZRA/PL THRU THE EVENING BEFORE CHG OVER
TO -SN AFT 6Z. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
ACROSS SD IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...WILL DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION DEVELOPS. AM LEANING TOWARD AT LEAST 0.1 INCH OF ICE
AT AXN THIS EVENING...WITH LESSER AMTS AT STC/RWF. RNH/EAU SHOULD
STAY ALL SNOW...WITH A MIXTURE OF PL DURING THE LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SSW AND GUSTY THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CHG TO THE SW/NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN
IS MODERATE AT AXN/STC...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT RWF.
KMSP...
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 85H TEMPS HOLD NEAR +2C AND THE
DEEPER LAYER OF TEMPS -10C BLW 90H WHICH WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW. CONFIDENCE OF
FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THE AIRPORT...BUT IF ANY -FZRA
DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE AFT 2Z. SOME LOWER VSBYS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTN AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 26 KTS. S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BECOMING MORE SW TONIGHT...THEN W/NW SATURDAY
AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUN THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
TUE...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUE NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING SOUTH.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ041-047-
048-054>057-064-065-067-073>077-082>085-091>093.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ042>045-
049>053-058>063-066-068>070-078.
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ014>016-023>028.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN DUE TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED
FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO MIXED
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING ARCTIC FRONT. DETAILS
ON THIS LATER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS SPILLING DOWN THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE SURFACE
RIDGE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST... ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
SOUTHERLY... WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MOVE UPWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY... AS ROBUST WARM
ADVECTION OCCURS ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND AS WELL...
BUT THEY HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO... AND LOOK TO ONLY HAVE A CHANCE OF
GETTING CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER... 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET WELL ABOVE FREEZING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... WHICH WILL SPELL SOME
PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT... THE
BEST COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SATURATION LOOK TO OCCUR OFF
TO OUR NORTH... BUT WE SHOULD SEE A WINDOW OF SOME LIGHT PCPN WITH
THE COLD FRONT AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. KEPT BEST POPS
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING... WITH HIGHEST VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND BELOW FREEZING VALUES AT
AND NEAR THE SURFACE... BOTH SLEET AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ANY PCPN THAT OCCURS. AS TEMPERATURES TURN
SHARPLY COLDER LATER TONIGHT... ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW. AT THIS POINT... PCPN AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT... AND IT IS TOUGH
TO SAY IF/WHERE ANYTHING GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH MIGHT
OCCUR. WITH THAT IN MIND... AM HOLDING OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES DUE TO MIXED PCPN. HOWEVER... PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF THE PCPN... WE WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
TODAY... PARTICULARLY NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TODAY... SO WILL BE
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FAR WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA INTO MID-AFTERNOON. PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA AT TIMES... AS WINDS
GUST NEAR 30 MPH. THERE COULD BE BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... BUT THOSE COULD
BE MITIGATED BY ANY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WHICH FALLS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY... THIS IS ANOTHER ITEM WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED... AND
WILL CERTAINLY BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
THE FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM IS SQUARELY ON THE INTENSE...POSSIBLY
RECORD BREAKING COLD AIR OUTBREAK LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A HISTORIC EVENT...AND A
FORECASTER IS LUCKY IF HE/SHE SEES ONE LIKE THIS IN THEIR ENTIRE
CAREER. SURPRISINGLY FOR SUCH AN EXTREME EVENT...THERE IS VERY
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OF IT OCCURRING...ASIDE
FROM SMALLER DETAILS SUCH AS WHETHER WE CAN BREAK ALL TIME COLD
RECORD HIGHS MONDAY. EVEN MOS IS CALLING FOR ALL TIME RECORD
HIGHS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK FOR THE 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF -35 OR
COLDER WIND CHILLS OCCURRING.
THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS AIR MASS IS IN NUNAVUT WHERE CURRENT
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -30. MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO MODERATION
AS THIS CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO LIMITED SUN AND CONTINUOUS SNOW PACK. THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER STABLE IN
DEPICTING NEAR RECORD COLD AIR FOR SEVERAL RUNS. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE FOR LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 15 TO 20 BELOW RANGE MONDAY. THE MOS
NUMBERS FOR MONDAY ARE BOLSTERED BY 925 MB TEMPS IN THE -29 TO
-34C RANGE WHICH WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS
BELOW ZERO IF WE CAN EVEN MIX THAT DEEP. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS
DOWNWARD TO REFLECT THE GOOD CONSISTENCY. THE COLDEST HIGH EVER
RECORDED AT MSP IS -17F...OCCURRING WITH THE INFAMOUS COLD
OUTBREAKS OF 2/2/1996 AND 12/23/1983. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS
FOR THAT ALL TIME RECORD TO BE TIED. USUALLY FOR SUCH EXTREME
TEMPS TO OCCUR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WOULD BE NECESSARY. IT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY IN
THIS AIRMASS. IN FACT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL ICE CRYSTALS.
IF THE AIR TEMPERATURES WERE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH...PERHAPS THE
WIND ACCOMPANYING THE BITTER COLD AIR IS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE OUTBREAK WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO 35 TO 50 BELOW...EXCEPT BETWEEN 50 AND 60 BELOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE
COLD...EXTREMELY COLD.
A COUPLE OTHER NOTES...BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK - PARTICULARLY IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARIES IN WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH.
MAY NEED A HEADLINE FOR THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
YET TO JUMP ON THAT.
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...MUCH MILDER AIR WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE CONUS AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER. THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNIFICANT
SNOW STORMS ON THE HORIZON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
MAIN CHG TO THIS AVIATION TAF PERIOD IS TO CONCENTRATE ON TIMING
OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WC MN/CENTRAL MN
TOWARD 22-00Z. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL BE MAINLY IFR/MVFR
IN BLSN WITH CIGS HOLDING ARND 1K...TO LOCALLY 2-3K IN WC WI.
A WARM LAYER ABV THE SFC (85H) IS NOTED IN WESTERN MN... AND AS
FAR EAST AS AXN/MKT TO AEL BASED ON THE LATEST RAP AT 17Z. STRONG
WSW WINDS AT 85H WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THESE HIGHER TEMPS
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MN BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL
DEEP SUB-FREEZING LAYER BLW 90H WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE REFREEZING
OF THE PRECIPITATION. EC MN WILL LIKELY HOLD ONTO SLEET WITH
STC/RWF/AXN A PERIOD OF FZRA/PL THRU THE EVENING BEFORE CHG OVER
TO -SN AFT 6Z. DEPENDING UPON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS
ACROSS SD IN THE NEXT FEW HRS...WILL DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH
ACCUMULATION DEVELOPS. AM LEANING TOWARD AT LEAST 0.1 INCH OF ICE
AT AXN THIS EVENING...WITH LESSER AMTS AT STC/RWF. RNH/EAU SHOULD
STAY ALL SNOW...WITH A MIXTURE OF PL DURING THE LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SSW AND GUSTY THIS AFTN/OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
CHG TO THE SW/NW BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING RAIN
IS MODERATE AT AXN/STC...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT RWF.
KMSP...
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 85H TEMPS HOLD NEAR +2C AND THE
DEEPER LAYER OF TEMPS -10C BLW 90H WHICH WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW. CONFIDENCE OF
FREEZING RAIN IS LOW AT THE AIRPORT...BUT IF ANY -FZRA
DEVELOPS...IT WOULD BE AFT 2Z. SOME LOWER VSBYS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTN AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 26 KTS. S/SSW WINDS CONTINUE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...BECOMING MORE SW TONIGHT...THEN W/NW SATURDAY
AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
SUN THRU MON NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT.
TUE...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
TUE NIGHT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT BECOMING SOUTH.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ041-
047-048-054>057-064-065-067-073>077-082>085-091>093.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093.
WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1020 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
NO CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE...AS WE ARE STILL TRYING TO GET TIMING
ON POTENTIAL BLIZZARD. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF MIXED PRECIP
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD CREATE
ICY CONDITIONS. THIS IS HANDLED WELL AND NO CHANGES PLANNED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE VALLEY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
FCST ON TRACK. DID ADJUST TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL
THINGS SEEM OK. REPORT OF AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW IN WARROAD-
BAUDETTE AREA. WINDS STARTING TO DIMINISH A BIT IN THE RRV AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IN ERN MT. LATEST RAP MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN PRECIP SOUTH OF THE LOW THIS AFTN AND THIS COULD CAUSE
ISSUES IF HEAVY ENOUGH DUE TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET CHANCES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
MANY ISSUES TO START WITH. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CALGARY
ALBERTA ATTM AND THIS WILL TRACK AS EXPECTED TO NEAR GRAND FORKS
BY 00Z...THEN EAST THRU NRN MN TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOWS
IN FAR NW MN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE SNOW ASSOC
WITH SFC LOW ARRIVES IN THAT AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT. COORD WITH
DLH AND BASED ON SNOWFALL FCST OF 3-5 INCHES IN ROSEAU-WARROAD-
BAUDETTE-WASKISH WILL GO WINTER WX ADVISORY 12Z FRI-12Z SAT.
SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK EXPECT A WARM AIR SURGE EAST THIS AFTN INTO
THE DVL BASIN MIDDAY AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID TO LATE
AFTN WITH TEMPS LOWER 30S IN DVL BASIN AND UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S IN
THE MID/SRN RRV. SOUTH OF THE LOW NOT MUCH PRECIP...BUT ALL MODELS
INDICATE SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SHARPENING 500 MB
TROUGH IN SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN MID TO LATE AFTN. IN THIS WARMER
AIR ALOFT REGION...ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WOULD BE OF A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET TYPE. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. NORTH OF THE LOW
SNOW WILL DROP INTO NRN ND MID AFTN INTO LATE AFTN. SFC LOW
POSITION NEAR GRAND FORKS AT 00Z WOULD MEAN NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NW FCST AREA-FAR NRN RRV AROUND 21-22Z AND
THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE LOW AFTER 00Z. GFS MODEL A BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP/WIND THAN PAST RUNS AND 06Z NAM PRETTY
STRONG TOO AND WITH A SHARP SURGE OF COLD SFC-925 MB TEMPS AND
GOOD MIXED LAYER TO 925 MB WHERE WINDS WILL BE 45 KTS WOULD EXPECT
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. BASED ON TIMING OF WINDS WILL
HOIST BLIZZARD WARNING FOR FAR NRN RRV/DVL BASIN STARTING AT 21Z
FRI THRU 15Z SAT. FOR THE REST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY GRAND FORKS
SOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF START TIME NOT TIL AFTER 00Z...WILL KEEP
WATCH AND ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO FINE TUNE BEGINNING OF WARNING
HEADLINES. FRESH SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IN THE NRN VALLEY WITH AN
INCH OR MAYBE TWO CANDO-GRAFTON-HALLOCK WITH THAT HEAVIER SNOWFALL
MORE TOWARD ROSEAU EASTWARD. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY TWO
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH. FOR AREAS OF MINNESOTA NOT IN LAKE OF
THE WOODS AREA NOR IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY (TVF-BJI SOUTHWARD)
COULD SEE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH SOME BLOWING
SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFT DETERMINE
EXTENT AND TIMING OF THAT.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY MORNING WITH BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIMITED AND CLEARING WORKS IN. TEMPS WILL
FALL SLOWLY DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY SAT NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS HOLDING UP AND WIND CHILL WILL DROP INTO
ADVISORY AND THEN WARNING CRITERIA BY 12Z SUN.
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MAIN COLD SHOT AT LEAST AT 925-850 MB LAYER AS
UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND FLURRIES
TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH SUN-SUN NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPS SUN NIGHT FROM GOING OFF THE DEEP END...TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN SFC LOW IN WESTERN QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE IN ALBERTA-
SASK-MONTANA WILL CREATE A STIFF NORTHWEST BREEZE AND VERY LOW
WIND CHILLS. WILL ADDRESS WIND CHILL WARNINGS AS NEEDED ONCE THIS
BLIZZARD SYSTEM DEPARTS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. BOTH SHOW A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON
MONDAY MOVING INTO EASTERN CANADA BY MID-WEEK WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK SHORT-WAVES
WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
LITTLE MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE DEEP FREEZE WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT EXPECT
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEREAFTER AS A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY TRANSLATES TO THE EAST. HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RISE ABOVE ZERO WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -12 C.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CST FRI JAN 3 2014
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. AREAS OF IFR CIGS AT FAR/GFK
MAINLY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW OVER THE SENSOR. OTHERWISE WITHOUT
BLOWING SNOW MOST CIGS IN THE LOW END VFR RANGE. VSYBS REDUCED IN
BLOWING SNOW TO 1-3SM IN THE RRV WILL IMPROVE TO P6SM AS WELL BY
LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH. QUESTION IS CHANCE FOR
FREEZING PRECIP THIS AFTN ESP AT GFK/FAR. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF
DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN/HOW MUCH. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH-
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS (OR HIGHER) FOR A PERIOD THIS EVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH DVL/RRV BASIN. CIGS LIKELY TO LOWER
AND VSBYS TOO TO IFR LEVELS IN THIS REGION. A BIT HIGHER VSBYS
BEMIDJI BUT STILL SOME SNOWFALL TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THIEF RIVER FALLS DUE TO CONTINUED CEILOMETER OUTAGE
AND AWAITING A REPLACEMENT WENT AMENDMENT NOT SCHEDULED (AMD NOT
SKED) DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF CIGS TODAY-TONIGHT AND NO REAL
WAY TO CHECK IN REAL TIME, SO UPDATES WILL BE LIMITED TO GENERALLY
MAJOR TAF ISSUANCE TIMES.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>003-027-029-030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MNZ004-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ005-006-
009.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE