Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/24/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
341 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2013
CURRENTLY...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE S MTNS/GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...KALS WAS REPORTING DENSE FOG
ALTHOUGH THE KALS AIRPORT WEB CAMS WERE NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FOG AT 2 AM. OTHERWISE...SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WERE
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH MAINLY MID LVL CLOUDIENESS.
TODAY...
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE S MTNS/I-25 CORRIDOR REGION WILL DECREASE
TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER THIS MORNING.
IT WILL BE A COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
30S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MAINLY TEENS AND 20S MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS.
SNOW OVER THE C MTNS WILL DECREASE AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIF
ACCUMS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATER TODAY...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE NW FLOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE C MTNS AND SNOW
WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP...MAINLY ON THE NW SLOPES.
TONIGHT...
SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE C MTNS...ESPECIALLY N OF COTTONWOOD PASS.
HEAVIEST ACCUMS...A FEW INCHES..WILL BE LIKELY. WITH THE JET MOVING
BACK OVER THE REGION...WINDS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
PICKING UP OVER THE MTNS...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS INTO
THE 40+ MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE C MTNS...PIKES PEAK AND S
MTNS. TRAVEL ACROSS THE C MTN PASSES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE
BLOWING AND FALLING SNOW. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREEES
COLDER THAN SUN MORNINGS LOWS AS CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
LOWS AOA -10F. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2013
...A DRY WEEK AHEAD...
OVERALL WX PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF 2013. FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE COMING WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SHSN FOR THE MTS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF
SERN CO LOOKS DRY. THE ECMWF IS STILL PROGGING SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON TUE...BUT EVEN THE EC HAS BACKED OFF
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND THE NAM AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY DRY SAVE FOR
THE LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE DVD. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO NEAR ZERO FOR
THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA...SO THERE WILL NOT BE A WHITE CHRISTMAS
THIS YEAR. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER WX TO OUR AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS WILL REBOUND TO THE 50S FRI INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEKEND...AS H7 TEMPS RISE ABOVE ZERO E OF THE MTS. COULD EVEN
SEE SOME 60 DEGREE TEMPS IF THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT MORE. POPS
REMAIN NR ZERO FOR THIS LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...EVEN OVER THE MTS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEKEND INTO
THE NEW YEARS. THE EC BRINGS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER OUR AREA NEXT
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF NW FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE
GFS SPLITS THE FLOW...LEAVING US MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY...BUT THEN PHASES
THE TWO STREAMS BY NEW YEARS...POSSIBLY BRINGING US SOME SNOW TO
START OFF 2014. LOW POPS IN THE ENSEMBLE GRIDS LOOK ON TARGET FOR
NOW. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 325 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2013
KCOS...MAY SEE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO THIS MORNING PRODUCING BRIEF
MVFR...BUT OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H. HRRR WIND FIELDS
SHOWING A DIURNAL REGIME SHOOULD SET UP BY LATER TODAY.
KPUB...MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR NEXT 24H.
KALS...PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG LIKELY AT KCOS THIS MORNING. FOG/LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR JUST
OFF THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS FORMING
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY DENSE GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HE C MTNS TODAY. SNOW AND WIND
WILL PICK UP OVER THE C MTNS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1046 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2013
UPPER LOW IS LIFTING OUT INTO WESTERN OK WHILE TRAILING ENERGY IS
DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION HAS
BEEN SLOW TO GET GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WEB CAMS
AND SURFACE OBS ALONG THE CONTDVD HAVE BEEN REPORTING SOME SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY. INITIALLY HEAVIEST SNOW AND BEST LIFT WILL BE OUT
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS BACA COUNTY. STILL SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OUT THAT
WAY...BUT AN INCH OR TWO WOULDN`T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF BACA COUNTY. MEANWHILE...SHOULD START TO SEE
LIGHT SNOW RAMP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
BY 4 PM...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
NAM12 AND HRRR SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH EACH
RUN...WITH NAM12 NOW SHOWING AROUND 2-4 INCHES FOR THE SE MTS. HAVE
KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 2-6 INCH RANGE AS SUSPECT THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF
HEAVIER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER WITHOUT A PERSISTENT DEEP NE UPSLOPE
FLOW...THINK THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED. THUS
ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED AT THIS POINT. LIGHT SNOW WILL
WIND DOWN TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS OPENS
UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF GROUND FOG AT KALS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS TO THE GRIDS.
QUIET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW MAY KEEP SOME
SCATTERED OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MAY END UP SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TODAY...PERHAPS
A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND A TAD COOLER
ACROSS THE MTS WHERE H7 TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THIS
EVENINGS SYSTEM. -KT
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT SLOWLY MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 120KT JET CORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TRANSLATES OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP GENERALLY LIGHT
SNOWFALL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. PASSING SYSTEM STAYS TOO FAR NORTH AND
EAST TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THOUGH DOES SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
MONDAY NIGHT-CHRISTMAS DAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY
WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS STILL A TAD DEEPER WITH SAID SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO PRINT OUT
SOME QPF ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WITH ITS H7
FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH TO NORTHWEST...ANY SNOW WOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. AT ANY
RATE...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS WELL AS ALONG THE PALMER DVD AND RATON MESA FOR LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND HAVE STAYED THE COURSE
FOR NOW. AS FOR TEMPS...WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SAID SYSTEM LOOKS TO
KEEP BREEZY WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS CHRISTMAS EVE HELPING TO COOL HIGHS TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PROGGED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A FEW MINOR
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY
WARM AND DRY...SAVE A FEW OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL MTS...AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
KALS WL PROBABLY SEE SOME STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THRU ABOUT 16Z. OTHERWISE KALS WILL HAVE
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
826 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A STRONGER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION LATE NEXT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOLLOWED THE 23Z HRRR FOR PCPN TIMING THE REMAINDER OF THE EVE. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AND SLIDE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND
TOWARDS THE NE TONIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SURFACE WAVE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH GRADUAL CAA AND DRYING ON GUSTY NW FLOW TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED...BUT HIGH AND MID CLOUD LIKELY REMAIN
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH STRONG VORT
ENERGY AT THE BASE...APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY AND SWINGING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING.
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SIGNALING A WEAK CLIPPER WITH
THE ARCTIC FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH...PRODUCING A SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEEING A SWATH OF SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT THE EXACT AXIS IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SW 1/2
OF THE CWA.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/OR SNOW SQUALLS WITH
THIS FEATURE DUE TO COMBINATION OF VORT ENERGY LIFT...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT. WILL ADDRESS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN HWO FOR LATE CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO EVENING...WITH
COMBINATION OF LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOW ACCUM AND DROPPING TEMPS.
GUSTY NW FLOW AND GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH CAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY ON TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 30S
COAST. LOWS EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING LIKELY DROP INTO THE TEENS
INTERIOR AND LOWER 20S COAST...WITH WINDCHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE JET STREAM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
REGION WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THU
WITH OTHERS THAT MOVE TO THE NORTH FRI AND SAT WITH A LONGER
WAVELENGTH TROUGH SETTING UP AND APPROACHING LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WED AND OFFSHORE WED
NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THU FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE NEXT SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD AND APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE ONLY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THURSDAY AHEAD AND
ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT. THE VERTICAL FORCING WILL COME FROM
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SHORTWAVE AND
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL JET. MODELS DEPICT MUCH OF THIS PRECIP TO BE
OFFSHORE SO THE POPS ARE JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE. THE MODE OF THIS
PRECIP WILL BE INITIALLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY CHANGING TO
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OTHER
SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THEREAFTER WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEING THE GREATER INFLUENCE IN KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT NEXT SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF IT BUT MOISTURE IS MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT WITH ONLY LOW
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUE AFTN/EVE.
RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD...BUT IT HAS BECOME MORE SCT
IN NATURE AND WILL BE OFF AND ON FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS BEFORE
FINALLY ENDING.
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER AIR/SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAVE
STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND TIMING OF 02Z AT NYC AIRPORTS
LOOKS ON TRACK. DIRECTIONS WILL REMAIN RIGHT OF 310 MAG THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THEN...SOME UNCERTAINTY IF WINDS AT KJFK/KLGA BACK
TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG AFT 18Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KEWR.
LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR CONDS AT EASTERN TERMINALS SHOULD IMPROVE
BETWEEN 01Z AND 04Z...WITH VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH
18Z TUE. ALL NYC METRO TERMINALS/KSWF/KISP HAVE A CHC TO SEE IFR
CONDS IN -SHSN LATE TUE AFTN/EVE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT -SHRA ENDING 03-04Z. GUSTS MAY CEASE
BEFORE 12Z. OCNL GUSTS IN TEENS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT -SHRA ENDING 03-04Z. GUSTS MAY CEASE
BEFORE 12Z. OCNL GUSTS IN TEENS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT -SHRA ENDING 02-03Z. GUSTS MAY CEASE
BEFORE 10Z. OCNL GUSTS IN TEENS POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT -SHRA ENDING 02-03Z. OCNL GUSTS IN TEENS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT -SHRA ENDING 03-04Z. OCNL GUSTS IN TEENS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: SCT -SHRA ENDING 04-05Z. OCNL GUSTS IN TEENS
POSSIBLE TUE AFTN.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR RETURNS IN LATE EVE WITH NW WINDS
15-20G20-30KT DEVELOPING.
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT.
&&
.MARINE...
OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MARGINAL SCA SEAS INTO TUESDAY.
A LULL OF A FEW HOURS OF WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THEN SCA CONDS LIKELY ON OCEAN AND
POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF ARCTIC FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF POSSIBLE SCA WIND GUSTS ON THE EASTERN
WATERS EARLY WED...BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED
NIGHT. ANOTHER POSSIBLE PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS FOR EASTERN WATERS
THU-THU EVENING BEFORE AND AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
1/10 INCH ACROSS NW AREAS TO 1/3 OF AN INCH FOR EASTERN AREAS. NO
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...SEARS/NV
AVIATION...
MARINE...SEARS/NV
HYDROLOGY...SEARS/NV
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1257 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. NORTH OF IT
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAIN AND VERY
MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE
WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM...HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FROM THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IN THE 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE WARM AIR TO ARRIVE IN ALL LOCATIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
THOSE AREAS WERE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STILL PERSISTS.
WITH TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STILL
LINGERS...HAVE EXTENED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION THROUGH 200 PM. PCPN HAS BECOME INTERMITENT AND
LIGHT SO ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH SINCE IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 635 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS
TO A LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S. ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMING UP THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE TOWARDS POUGHKEEPSIE AND
HUDSON...WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 60S! THE
JUST LAUNCHED 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD SFC LAYER IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 METERS THICK...WITH A WARM NOSE OF ABOUT +16 C AT 850 HPA.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...FALLING AS FZRA/PL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. RIGHT NOW...MUCH
OF OUR CWA IS IN A DRY SLOT...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY
SLOT SHOULD START TO FILL IN TOWARDS THE MID MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE NY. RIGHT NOW...WE WILL HOLD CHC POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
BTV CWA BORDER. BY THE LATE MORNING...WE WILL RISE POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA AS
WELL.
FOR NOW...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING
ANY MEASUREABLE FREEZING RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY
SPRINKLE BEFORE THAT OCCURS...IT SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO ACCRETE MUCH
ICE AT ALL WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND AN ALREADY WET GROUND.
STILL...WE HAVE PASSED ALONG THE MESSAGE THROUGH OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
CHANNELS THAT WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...SOME WET SURFACES COULD
POTENTIALLY BE SLICK...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SPOTTY.
BASED ON WHATS HAPPENING AT KPOU/1B1...THIS WARMER AIR IS ON THE
MOVE...AND SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE COLD AIR IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA FAIRLY SOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE
SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT
FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MID 60S FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
WILL BE DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN
HOURS...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL
TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA. QPF
DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE AREAS...AND
GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT
EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE RAINFALL.
ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN
WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF
MAYBE AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA.
WMFNT AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPEND ON THE
PLACEMENT OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND THE DIVIDING LINE
BETWEEN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND WARMER AND MORE WELL-MIXED
AIR. EXPECT KGFL/KALB TO REMAIN IN PREDOMINATELY IFR FLYING
CONDITIONS...AS MOISTURE AND COOL AIR FUNNELING DOWN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY COMBINED WITH AN EXTREMELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER KEEP
FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS. HAVE ADDRESSED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 18Z-20Z AT
KGFL WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND PASSING SHOWERS MAY ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL.
MEANWHILE...WARMER AND MORE MIXED AIR WILL ALLOW FOR PREDOMINATELY
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS MINUS OCCASIONAL MVFR FROM PASSING SHOWERS AT
KPOU/KPSF. HAVE ADDRESSED THESE WITH TEMPO GROUPS. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
INITIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KGFL/KALB BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS AT KPOU AND KPSF...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS.
HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT KGFL AND KALB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE LIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING.
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...DESPITE THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED MIXING ALONG WITH IT...ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER NIGHTTIME PROFILE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE STABLE ALLOWING FOR
PERSISTING IFR FOG AT KGFL/KALB...AND MVFR LOW STRATUS AT
KPOU/KPSF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR
KPOU/KPSF LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF -SHRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THOUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SNOW MELT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING. 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING...SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
IN THE SOUTH THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1112 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. NORTH OF IT
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAIN AND VERY
MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE
WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1100 AM...HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FROM THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND IN THE 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE WARM AIR TO ARRIVE IN ALL LOCATIONS...BUT FOR
NOW HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY AROUND 10 DEGREES IN
THOSE AREAS WERE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STILL PERSISTS.
WITH TEMPS NOT MOVING MUCH WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STILL
LINGERS...HAVE EXTENED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THE LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION THROUGH 200 PM. PCPN HAS BECOME INTERMITENT AND
LIGHT SO ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
WITH THE NEXT UPDATE WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH SINCE IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 635 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS
TO A LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S. ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMING UP THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE TOWARDS POUGHKEEPSIE AND
HUDSON...WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 60S! THE
JUST LAUNCHED 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD SFC LAYER IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 METERS THICK...WITH A WARM NOSE OF ABOUT +16 C AT 850 HPA.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...FALLING AS FZRA/PL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. RIGHT NOW...MUCH
OF OUR CWA IS IN A DRY SLOT...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY
SLOT SHOULD START TO FILL IN TOWARDS THE MID MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE NY. RIGHT NOW...WE WILL HOLD CHC POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
BTV CWA BORDER. BY THE LATE MORNING...WE WILL RISE POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA AS
WELL.
FOR NOW...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING
ANY MEASUREABLE FREEZING RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY
SPRINKLE BEFORE THAT OCCURS...IT SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO ACCRETE MUCH
ICE AT ALL WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND AN ALREADY WET GROUND.
STILL...WE HAVE PASSED ALONG THE MESSAGE THROUGH OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
CHANNELS THAT WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...SOME WET SURFACES COULD
POTENTIALLY BE SLICK...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SPOTTY.
BASED ON WHATS HAPPENING AT KPOU/1B1...THIS WARMER AIR IS ON THE
MOVE...AND SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE COLD AIR IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA FAIRLY SOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE
SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT
FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MID 60S FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
WILL BE DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN
HOURS...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL
TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA. QPF
DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE AREAS...AND
GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT
EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE RAINFALL.
ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN
WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF
MAYBE AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA.
WMFNT AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY
WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DIVIDE VERY COLD AIR FROM UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR OVER THE E-CNTRL NY
CORRIDOR WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING FOR KGFL INTO THE LATE
MORNING...AND SOME SCT SHOWERS FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH...AS A WARM FRONT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TO VFR/MVFR
AT KPOU THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AT KPOU
WITH BETTER MIXING...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME
PATCHY MVFR MIST MAY BE AROUND IN THE LATE MORNING THERE. FURTHER
NORTH...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KGFL AT 16Z. MOST OF
THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE...AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR OR BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KALB WHERE LOW
VFR LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE CIGS MAY START TO RISE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES WITH 2 KFT AGL WINDS FROM THE S/SW AT 45-60 KTS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT
THE TERMINALS. THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST AT
THAT TIME. AT THE SFC...THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AT KGFL/KALB TO THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB AND KPOU. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE
S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF -SHRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THOUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SNOW MELT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING. 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING...SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
IN THE SOUTH THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-
043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
956 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. NORTH OF IT
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAIN AND VERY
MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE
WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM...HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FROMT THE
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AND IN THE 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. EVENTUALLY EXPECT THE
WARM AIR TO ARRIVE IN ALL LOCATIONS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ADJUSTED THE
HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. IF TEMPS DO
NOT RISE IN THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION SOON...MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY A LITTLE LONGER.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 635 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS
TO A LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S. ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMING UP THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE TOWARDS POUGHKEEPSIE AND
HUDSON...WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 60S! THE
JUST LAUNCHED 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD SFC LAYER IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 METERS THICK...WITH A WARM NOSE OF ABOUT +16 C AT 850 HPA.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...FALLING AS FZRA/PL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. RIGHT NOW...MUCH
OF OUR CWA IS IN A DRY SLOT...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY
SLOT SHOULD START TO FILL IN TOWARDS THE MID MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE NY. RIGHT NOW...WE WILL HOLD CHC POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
BTV CWA BORDER. BY THE LATE MORNING...WE WILL RISE POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA AS
WELL.
FOR NOW...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING
ANY MEASUREABLE FREEZING RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY
SPRINKLE BEFORE THAT OCCURS...IT SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO ACCRETE MUCH
ICE AT ALL WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND AN ALREADY WET GROUND.
STILL...WE HAVE PASSED ALONG THE MESSAGE THROUGH OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
CHANNELS THAT WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...SOME WET SURFACES COULD
POTENTIALLY BE SLICK...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SPOTTY.
BASED ON WHATS HAPPENING AT KPOU/1B1...THIS WARMER AIR IS ON THE
MOVE...AND SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE COLD AIR IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA FAIRLY SOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE
SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT
FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MID 60S FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
WILL BE DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN
HOURS...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL
TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE COASTAL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA. QPF
DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE AREAS...AND
GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE CURRENT
EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE RAINFALL.
ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL RAIN IN
SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN
WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF
MAYBE AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA.
WMFNT AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY
WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DIVIDE VERY COLD AIR FROM UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR OVER THE E-CNTRL NY
CORRIDOR WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING FOR KGFL INTO THE LATE
MORNING...AND SOME SCT SHOWERS FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH...AS A WARM FRONT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TO VFR/MVFR
AT KPOU THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AT KPOU
WITH BETTER MIXING...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME
PATCHY MVFR MIST MAY BE AROUND IN THE LATE MORNING THERE. FURTHER
NORTH...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KGFL AT 16Z. MOST OF
THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE...AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR OR BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KALB WHERE LOW
VFR LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE CIGS MAY START TO RISE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES WITH 2 KFT AGL WINDS FROM THE S/SW AT 45-60 KTS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT
THE TERMINALS. THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST AT
THAT TIME. AT THE SFC...THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AT KGFL/KALB TO THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB AND KPOU. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE
S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF -SHRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THOUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SNOW MELT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING. 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING...SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
IN THE SOUTH THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-
043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
652 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. NORTH OF IT
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAIN AND VERY
MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS...WITH MUCH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE
WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS
TO A LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S. ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMING UP THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE TOWARDS POUGHKEEPSIE AND
HUDSON...WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 60S! THE
JUST LAUNCHED 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD SFC LAYER IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 METERS THICK...WITH A WARM NOSE OF ABOUT +16 C AT 850 HPA.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...FALLING AS FZRA/PL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. RIGHT NOW...MUCH
OF OUR CWA IS IN A DRY SLOT...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY
SLOT SHOULD START TO FILL IN TOWARDS THE MID MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE NY. RIGHT NOW...WE WILL HOLD CHC POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
BTV CWA BORDER. BY THE LATE MORNING...WE WILL RISE POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA AS
WELL.
FOR NOW...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING
ANY MEASUREABLE FREEZING RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY
SPRINKLE BEFORE THAT OCCURS...IT SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO ACCRETE MUCH
ICE AT ALL WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND AN ALREADY WET GROUND.
STILL...WE HAVE PASSED ALONG THE MESSAGE THROUGH OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
CHANNELS THAT WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...SOME WET SURFACES COULD
POTENTIALLY BE SLICK...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SPOTTY.
BASED ON WHATS HAPPENING AT KPOU/1B1...THIS WARMER AIR IS ON THE
MOVE...AND SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE COLD AIR IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA FAIRLY SOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE
SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT
FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MID 60S FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
WILL BE DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN
HOURS...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL
TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA.
QPF DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE
AREAS...AND GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
CURRENT EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE
RAINFALL. ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF MAYBE
AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA. WMFNT
AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY
WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DIVIDE VERY COLD AIR FROM UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR OVER THE E-CNTRL NY
CORRIDOR WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING FOR KGFL INTO THE LATE
MORNING...AND SOME SCT SHOWERS FROM KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH...AS A WARM FRONT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF TO VFR/MVFR
AT KPOU THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AT KPOU
WITH BETTER MIXING...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD. SOME
PATCHY MVFR MIST MAY BE AROUND IN THE LATE MORNING THERE. FURTHER
NORTH...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN AT KGFL AT 16Z. MOST OF
THE FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE IN THE MVFR RANGE...AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. SOME DRIZZLE SHOULD
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR OR BRIEF PERIODS
OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KALB WHERE LOW
VFR LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE CIGS MAY START TO RISE AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A PROBLEM THIS MORNING AT ALL THE TAF
SITES WITH 2 KFT AGL WINDS FROM THE S/SW AT 45-60 KTS. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO LAST INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AT
THE TERMINALS. THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST AT
THAT TIME. AT THE SFC...THE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST OR
NORTHEAST AT KGFL/KALB TO THE SOUTH AT 8-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KALB AND KPOU. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE
S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF -SHRAS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THOUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SNOW MELT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING. 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING...SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
IN THE SOUTH THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-
043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
635 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. NORTH OF IT
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAIN AND VERY
MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS...WITH MUCH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE
WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS BEING PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS
TO A LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS
AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S. ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMING UP THE MID HUDSON VALLEY HAS
ALLOWED SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE TOWARDS POUGHKEEPSIE AND
HUDSON...WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING JUMPED UP INTO THE LOW 60S! THE
JUST LAUNCHED 12Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS THE COLD SFC LAYER IS ONLY
ABOUT 200 METERS THICK...WITH A WARM NOSE OF ABOUT +16 C AT 850 HPA.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION...FALLING AS FZRA/PL ACROSS THE BTV CWA. RIGHT NOW...MUCH
OF OUR CWA IS IN A DRY SLOT...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST 08Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY
SLOT SHOULD START TO FILL IN TOWARDS THE MID MORNING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE NY. RIGHT NOW...WE WILL HOLD CHC POPS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
BTV CWA BORDER. BY THE LATE MORNING...WE WILL RISE POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA AS
WELL.
FOR NOW...IT DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING
ANY MEASUREABLE FREEZING RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD
ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE
NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A SPOTTY
SPRINKLE BEFORE THAT OCCURS...IT SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO ACCRETE MUCH
ICE AT ALL WITH MARGINAL TEMPS AND AN ALREADY WET GROUND.
STILL...WE HAVE PASSED ALONG THE MESSAGE THROUGH OUR SOCIAL MEDIA
CHANNELS THAT WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING...SOME WET SURFACES COULD
POTENTIALLY BE SLICK...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY BE RATHER SPOTTY.
BASED ON WHATS HAPPENING AT KPOU/1B1...THIS WARMER AIR IS ON THE
MOVE...AND SHOULD WIN OUT OVER THE COLD AIR IN THE CAPITAL REGION
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA FAIRLY SOON.
HOWEVER...FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE AREA...IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE
ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE
SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT
FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME MID 60S FOR
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS
WILL BE DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN
HOURS...AS THE STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH
IN THE CAPITAL REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL
TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA.
QPF DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE
AREAS...AND GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
CURRENT EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE
RAINFALL. ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF MAYBE
AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA. WMFNT
AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY
WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DIVIDE VERY COLD AIR FROM MILD AIR OVER THE E-CNTRL NY CORRIDOR WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING FOR KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD BEFORE A STEADIER
RAINSHIELD MOVES IN TOWARDS 12Z.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL/KALB TO VFR/MVFR AT
KPOU AND KPSF THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL BE FOR WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT KPOU UNTIL AFTER 12Z...BUT EXPECT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR KGFL...KALB...KPSF THROUGH MOST OF THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY.
EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE BACK ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL AROUND 10Z.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 18Z-21Z FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
TERMINALS WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SOME IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS. THE CIGS MAY START TO RISE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO NE AT KALB AND KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING AT 5-10 KTS...THEN VEER TO TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z
WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. KPOU AND KPSF WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS...THEN INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KPSF...AS THE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
IN ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THOUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SNOW MELT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING. 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING...SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
IN THE SOUTH THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-
043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
445 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER
ARRIVES TUE AND WED.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
445 AM UPDATE...KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. 22/06Z NAM IS TOO WARM AT THE SURFACE AT
09Z...BUT IS NOT AS OVERLY WARM AS THE OTHER AVAILABEL GUIDANCE.
THE 22/07Z RAP ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BETWEEN THESE TWO SOURCES...EXPECTATIONS FOR SOME
ICING IN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HAVE INCREASED. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS
ICING COULD EXPAND WEST INTO CHESHIRE COUNTY...BUT IT IS SLIGHTLY
MORE LIKELY FOR THE COLDER AIR TO SURGE SOUTH INTO MIDDLESEX AND
ESSEX COUNTIES WHERE THE TERRAIN IS NOT AS MUCH OF AN IMPEDIMENT.
POSTED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN SOME ICING IS HIGHEST. THE NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO
EXPAND THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR.
LATEST NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. JUST STARTING TO SE
SIGNS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST NH. STARTING
TO THINK THIS WILL BE A CASE WHERE THE STRATUS SORT OF DEVELOPS IN
PLACE RATHER THAN BEING ENTIRELY ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION.
STILL HAVING TROUBLE GETTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE
BERKSHIRES. RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ECHOES DIMINISHING AS
THEY MOVE EAST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DEEP...LINGERING DRY AIR
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS EVIDENCED IN THE 22/00Z CHH AND
OKX SOUNDINGS. DO NOT EXPECT THIS DRY AIR TO LAST ALL DAY...BUT
DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL SOUTH OF
I-90. ONLY HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK THE TIMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LOCATION OF A FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING TODAY/S
FORECAST. BESIDES DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THIS FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHERN MA LATER TODAY. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COULD BE
AS MUCH AS A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES
DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THIS FRONT AN AREA HAPPENS TO BE. MORE
THOUGHT WILL NEED TO BE GIVEN TO TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY.
IF TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING...IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...EVEN LOOKING AT THE COLDER NAM SOLUTION. WILL LIKELY
NEED TO CONSIDER A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHERN NH LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. NEED TO
FIGURE OUT THE PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT FIRST THOUGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RAIN AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A MILD NIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER HIGH FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.00-1.75 INCHES. THUS...COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE GREATEST RISK WOULD BE TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
*MAINLY DRY BUT MUCH COLDER CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY
* DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
22/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THIS UPDATE IS SHOWING GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. THE SOMEWHAT
AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROF-RIDGE SETUP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS ARE FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. GIVEN
THIS...FEEL THAT A GENERAL CONSENUS OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WILL WORK AS A GOOD
BASELINE FOR THIS LONG-TERM FORECAST UPDATE.
IN TERMS OF THE SYNOPTIC SETUP...THROUGH MID WEEK A LONGWAVE TROF
WILL BE SETTLING OVER NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES IN
THE ATLANTIC BUT SLIDES A BIT FURTHER E. THIS TROF WILL CARRY WITH
IT SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK WHICH WILL WARM A
SECONDARY AND WEAKER RIDGE /AND ASSOCIATED 1040 HIGH PRES/ MOVES
OVER. THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL WITH YET ANOTHER TROF BY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND OPEN AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE STRONG RIDGING OFFSHORE. THERFORE...WITH THIS
UDPATE...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS
THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN KEEPS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AT BAY.
DETAILS...
MON NIGHT...
FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP SHIELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE BOX CWA WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH TIME SUCH
THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE CLEAR OF THE EVEN THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BY
12Z. AT THIS POINT...EXAMINING BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGESTS MUCH OF
THE REMNANT PRECIP IS RAIN...BUT A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS COLD ADVECTION
INCREASES AHEAD OF HIGH PRES AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. ANY ACCUMS
WOULD BE LIGHT TO NONE.
TUE INTO WED...
AS TROF SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THE NOSE OF 1040 HPA HIGH PRES
AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. H85 TEMPS
AVERAGE AROUND -12C DURING THE DAY TUE THEN SLIDE DOWN AS LOW AS
-20C BY EARLY WED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE BLUSTERY ON
TUE WITH DECENT PRES GRADIENT APPARENT...YIELDING 20+ MPH NW
FLOW...BUT AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER ON WED. AVERAGE TEMPS
ARE LIKELY TO BE 10-15 DEGREES /F/ BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE DEC. DRY
WEATHER PREVAILS OTHERWISE UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 1040 HIGH
PRES.
THU AND FRI...
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN AS IT APPROAHCES THE
NORTHEAST US/CANADA. ATTENDANT CLIPPER LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND SRN QUEBEC. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP
SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY SIDE OF THIS CLIPPER.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW FLURRIES ARE SEEN WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATE THU...BUT ITS LIKELY ONLY CLOUD COVER IS OBSERVED.
THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE AN OFFSHORE WAVE WHICH MAY RIDE THE FRONT
JUST AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE WAVE PHASING IS FAR TOO LATE TO
AFFECT SRN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A SLIGHT MODERATE WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL ON THU...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED CLIPPER WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF BLUSTERY AND COOLER WX FOR THE DAY FRI.
NEXT WEEKEND...
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY /AS IS TYPICAL/ FROM DAY 6 ONWARD.
EARLY INDICATION IS THAT HIGH PRES MAY ONCE AGAIN SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION BEHIND THE CLIPPER AND PHASING WAVES OFFSHORE...BUT
THIS WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE FINAL FLOW PATTERN ONCE THE PHASING
DOES/DOES NOT OCCUR. FOR NOW...WILL ERR ON THE SUGGESTED DRIER
SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 AM UPDATE...
IFR BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS WILL LOWER THROUGH
TODAY...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECISE TIMING. LLWS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA WITH STRONG WSW JET JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. MODERATE PROBABILITY OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND POSSIBLY NORTHEAST MA LATE TODAY.
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KMHT.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
FOG AND -SHRA. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN...
POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES. AREAS OF FOG.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
MON NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR AS PRECIP ENDS NW TO SE.
TUE AND WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SOME NW WINDS 25-30 KT AT TIMES TUE.
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THIS FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY AS A
FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRES MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY MONDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THRU MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...
MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW LATE MON NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THIS NW WIND
SHIFT...WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
IT APPEARS SEAS WILL SLACKEN ENOUGH AS WINDS RECEDE EARLY WED THAT
A PERIOD OF MAINLY QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH
PRES.
THU...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO BUILDS FROM THE S AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY THU. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE REACHED...OVER THE SRN WATERS FIRST.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 22ND...
HARTFORD /BDL/ 59 DEGREES...1990
WORCESTER /ORH/ 63 DEGREES...1923
BOSTON /BOS/ 62 DEGREES...1990
PROVIDENCE /PVD/ 61 DEGREES...1990
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR NHZ012-015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DOODY
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...BELK/DOODY
MARINE...BELK/DOODY
CLIMATE...STAFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
403 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE MAINE COAST
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. NORTH OF IT
IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH RAIN AND VERY
MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY OFFSHORE MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW YORK TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS...WITH MUCH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THE
WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 321 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS TO A
LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO +7 TO +15
DEGREES C ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LIGHTER RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
IS OCCURRING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AS A DRY SLOT
IS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE PRECIP SHOWN ON
UPSTREAM RADARS. THE LATEST 03Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD
START TO FILL IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE RATHER HIGH POPS BY AROUND DAYBREAK DESPITE
THE CURRENT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS SHOWN ON RADAR. FOR NOW...IT
DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO
START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS.
FURTHER NORTH...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS
FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE
GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOW TO MID
60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS...AS THE
STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE CAPITAL
REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE
HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA.
QPF DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE
AREAS...AND GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
CURRENT EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE
RAINFALL. ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF MAYBE
AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA. WMFNT
AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY
WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DIVIDE VERY COLD AIR FROM MILD AIR OVER THE E-CNTRL NY CORRIDOR WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING FOR KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD BEFORE A STEADIER
RAINSHIELD MOVES IN TOWARDS 12Z.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL/KALB TO VFR/MVFR AT
KPOU AND KPSF THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL BE FOR WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT KPOU UNTIL AFTER 12Z...BUT EXPECT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR KGFL...KALB...KPSF THROUGH MOST OF THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY.
EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE BACK ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL AROUND 10Z.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 18Z-21Z FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
TERMINALS WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SOME IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS. THE CIGS MAY START TO RISE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO NE AT KALB AND KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING AT 5-10 KTS...THEN VEER TO TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z
WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. KPOU AND KPSF WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS...THEN INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KPSF...AS THE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
IN ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THOUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING SNOW MELT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO NEW ENGLAND BY THIS
EVENING. 1-2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 50S AND 60S REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. EVEN AS THE RAIN TAPERS
OFF THIS EVENING...SNOW MELT AND RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
IN THE SOUTH THE RAINFALL WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ADDITIONAL RAIN
AND UP TO AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED.
FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-
043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
345 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST WEST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL RECEIVE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...INCREASING THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. STRATUS HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. FOG HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP BUT IS PATCHY IN COVERAGE WITHOUT TOO MUCH REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY.
LOOKING AT LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE FOG LOOKS TO INCREASE BY
09Z AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KEEPING PATCHY COVERAGE OF FOG
UNTIL 08Z AND THEN EXPAND TO AREAS. MOST MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT
BRINGING MUCH LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AROUND 12-15Z WITH DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL
BE AN ADVECTION FOG. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WINDS AND THIS CAN
BE CONVEYED BY ONGOING CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WITHOUT MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION WITH A LITTLE MORE
REDUCTION INLAND WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. IF WINDS FURTHER DECOUPLE
AND DECREASE...A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP.
REGARDING SHOWERS...TRENDED LOWER IN POPS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEING RESTRICTED TO MAINLY INTERIOR PORTIONS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. STILL EXPECTING SOME DRIZZLE
TO FORM TOWARDS MORNING WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED WITH A
STEADY TO SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY FROM LOW AND MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IF TEMPS WERE MIXED DOWN FROM H85...HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SUN. DESPITE THESE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS...FG AND DZ THRU THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS SO WENT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE...THE MET. MOST IF NOT ALL
CLIMATE SITES HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BREAK THEIR RECORDS.
IF THE CLOUDS DO BREAK UP IN THE EARLY AFTN...TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP
INTO 70S GENERALLY FROM THE CITY N AND W.
CONTINUED CHC FOR MEASUREABLE RAIN COVERED WITH -SHRA DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAIN FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE TIL SUN NGT PER THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. FCST THEREFORE BRINGS POPS UP THRU THE NGT...AND
TRANSITIONS PCPN TO MODERATE RAIN. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST WINDOW
FOR ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL OCCUR. IT WILL REMAIN STEAMY WITH LOW
TEMPS ABV MAX NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHEAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO DEEP TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH BRIEF RIDGING BY MID WEEK. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AT THE SFC...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE STALLED OR SLOW
MOVING FRONT MONDAY. THIS FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH (ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH) MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME TUESDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THESE OVERALL FEATURES AND
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.
RAIN...MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES...MONDAY WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MOISTURE THOUGH WILL BE LIMITED.
DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW MORE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEN A BRIEF SHOT OF
COLDER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER CONTINUES
LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND MONDAY...AND WPC/ECE AND MEX NUMBERS
FOLLOWED TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH TODAY...THEN TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES AS THE STRATUS AND FOG HAS NOT YET
DEVELOPED...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. TREND TO BETTER CONDITIONS
CONTINUES. STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. A 55-65KT LLJ BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT...WILL PEAK BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. THINK SOME OF THIS WILL MIX
DOWN...WITH 20-30KT GUSTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SW. KSWF HAS THE HIGHEST CHC
FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE AIRFIELD. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
SCT SHOWERS WILL BE BEYOND 12Z...BUT ORGANIZED FRONTAL SHOWERS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS UNTIL AFT 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN FG/BR AND -SHRA.
.MON...MVFR-IFR IN -SHRA INTO THE AFTN...THEN CONDS IMPROVING W TO E.
WIND SHIFT FROM SW-NW WITH COLD FROPA AFTER 18Z.
.TUE...VFR. NW WIND 15-20G20-30KT.
.WED-THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
REDUCED VSBY AND MODERATE SSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS THRU SUN NGT. A SCA FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE HARBOR
TNGT THRU SUN NGT. STRONGEST WINDS ON THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THE SW
FETCH. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED. HAVE INCLUDED 1NM VSBY IN THE FCST...BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VSBY TO DROP BLW 1NM IF WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN
FCST. THIS WOULD REQUIRE A DENSE FG ADVY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY...OCEAN SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. THEN THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DEPART...WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THIS MID
WEEK TIMEFRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINOR ACCUMS. MOST OF THE MEASUREABLE RAIN IS FCST TO OCCUR SUN
NGT INTO MON. AROUND AN INCH OF BASIN AVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ATTM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
DECEMBER 22
RECORD FORECAST
EWR 65/1998 69
BDR 59/1998 59
NYC *63/1998 69
LGA 64/1998 67
JFK 62/1998 62
ISP 59/2011 62
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
NOTE: RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT JFK AND ISP ON SUNDAY
DECEMBER 22. THE FORECAST LOW AT JFK IS 50 WITH A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF
50 IN 1990. THE FORECAST LOW AT ISP IS 53 WITH A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF
50 IN 1990.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR MONDAY DECEMBER 23
RECORD FORECAST
EWR 58/1990 53
BDR 51/1990 49
NYC 57/1990 56
LGA 54/1990 56
JFK 50/1990 51
ISP 52/1990 54
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
AVIATION...MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
321 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO THE
MAINE COAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY AS A STORM MOVES ALONG IT TODAY.
NORTH OF IT IT WILL BE CHILLY WITH RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN...WITH
RAIN AND VERY MILD WEATHER TO ITS SOUTH. THE STORM WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN SLIDE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM ONTARIO INTO NEW
YORK TUES INTO CHRISTMAS...WITH SURGES OF MUCH COLD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION. THE WEEK WILL END WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING
WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND GENERALLY
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 321 AM EST...WIDE VARIETY OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR IS PULLED SOUTHWARD THANKS TO A
LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR THE GLENS FALLS AND SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA. TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE THANKS TO A
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO +7 TO +15
DEGREES C ACROSS OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...THE WARMER TEMPS AT THIS
HOUR ARE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS OF THE CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 50S.
WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE SFC BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...OVERRUNNING PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...IS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LIGHTER RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN
IS OCCURRING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AS A DRY SLOT
IS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE PRECIP SHOWN ON
UPSTREAM RADARS. THE LATEST 03Z 3KM HRRR SHOWS THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD
START TO FILL IN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY TOWARDS UPSTATE
NY...SO WE WILL CONTINUE RATHER HIGH POPS BY AROUND DAYBREAK DESPITE
THE CURRENT LULL IN THE PRECIP AS SHOWN ON RADAR. FOR NOW...IT
DOESN/T APPEAR THAT THE CAPITAL REGION WILL BE SEEING ANY FREEZING
RAIN...AS THE APPROACHING STORM SHOULD ALLOW THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO
START TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND BRING THE ALBANY AREA
INTO THE WARM SECTOR ONCE THE NEXT ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS.
FURTHER NORTH...IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE
WARM FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH AND TEMPS TO WARM UP. AS A RESULT...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. ICE ACCRETION AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM A
TRACE TO A TENTH ACROSS THE SARATOGA SPRINGS AREA TO A FEW TENTHS
FOR GLENS FALLS TO ABOUT FOUR TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF LAKE
GEORGE. ASIDE FROM SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...THIS MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE SFC TEMPS WARM
SIGNIFICANTLY...AS THOSE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE MIXED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO REACH INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOW TO MID
60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
WHILE IT WILL RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...MOST AREAS WILL BE
DONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS...AS THE
STORM/S COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM JUST A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY CT...TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE CAPITAL
REGION TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. SEE THE
HYDRO SECTION ON HOW WE EXPECT THIS RAINFALL TO AFFECT AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THIS PERIOD THE MODEL SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF) ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT. DURING THE THIS EVENING THE SFC LOW AND ITS UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT NE OUT OF FCA. A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WAVES
WILL DIG A TROF OVER GRTLKS...MAINTAINING A STRONG SW 500HPA FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. FOR A TIME THIS WILL ACT TO
WEAKEN THE SFC LOW FURTHER OVER NEW ENG...BUT THE SFC LOW WILL
DRAG A CDFNT THROUGH THE REGION TNGT. GIVEN THE UPPER FLOW COOLER
AIR WILL BE SLOW TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT....AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABV FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...WITH SNOW MELT CONTINUING.
BY MONDAY THIS CDFNT WILL NEARLY STALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND WITH DIGGING 500HPA TROF INTERACTING WITH THE
COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL TRIGGER A BOUT OF OVERRUNINNG RAIN...ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR THAT WILL BACK BUILD INTO SE PORTIONS OF FCA.
QPF DURING MONDAY WITH THIS SHOULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 IN THESE
AREAS...AND GIVEN THESE AREAS WERE IN THE WARM SECTOR MUCH OF THE
CURRENT EVENT...THEY MELTED MOST OF THEIR SNOW...BUT HAD LITTLE
RAINFALL. ADD TO THAT THE 2-3 DAYS THIS OCCURRED...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN IN SOUTHEAST AREAS MONDAY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER
THAN WITHIN BANK RISES.
FURTHER WEST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST WIND GRADIENT
WILL INCR AND AS THE 500HPA TROF PUSHES EAST A MUCH STRONGER 2NDRY
CDFNT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS MONDAY WILL HOLDS STEADY THEN FALL DURING THE AFTN.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES THE PASSAGE OF THE 500HPA TROF...CAA WILL
RESULT IN SCT -SHSN ACTIVITY. HWVR LLVL FLOW WILL BE TOTALLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR LK EFFECT OVER EASTERN NY.
ONCE THE 500HPA TROF EXITS CHRISTMAS EVE BOTH A 500HPA RIDGE...AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER NYS AND MID ATLC REGION. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ONE OF THE LONGEST NIGHTS OF THE YEAR...CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR MASS. LOWS WILL PLUNGE TO -20F IN PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
TO AROUND 10 IN THE SE.
TEMPS WILL RECOVER CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S AS SFC HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE. SOME CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT
WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EFP WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SYSTEMS IN W-NW FLOW.
MOST WILL BE FAIRLY WK CDFNTS AND/OR 500HPA SHORT WVS...WHICH
WILL INCR CLOUDS AND PRODUCE SCT -SHSN AND AT TIMES HAVE SOME
INTERACTION WITH THE GRTLKS. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMALS
AFTER A FRIGID CHRISTMAS. TYPICAL WINTER IN UPSTATE NY.
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND THURS THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS RACES ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW WEAK FRONTS AND A 500HPA SHORT WV. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL INCR CLOUDS MAINLY N & W. THU NT IT WILL DRAG A
CDFNT THROUGH WITH SOME -SHSN ACTIVITY MAINLY N & WEST. IN ITS
WAKE FRI CAA AND A 2NDARY CDFNT AND NW FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT -SHSN
WITH SOME LK ASSISTANCE. WK SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER FCA FRI NT.
SAT ANOTHER WK SHORT WV AND SFC SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GRTLKS
WITH A LITTLE WAA INCRG CLOUDS AND SCT -SHSN IN ECMWF...GETTING SOME
ASSIST FM THE LKS. GFS HAS MORE CLOUDS AND A WIDESPREAD LT -SN OF MAYBE
AN INCH. SAT NT INTO SUN FLOW BCMS ZONAL TO WSW AT 500HPA. WMFNT
AND SFC LOW SETS UP N OF RGN.
NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE BWTN GFS AND ECMWF. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC MID
SHIFT AND TWEAK POPS A TAD. OTHERWISE A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY
WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
DIVIDE VERY COLD AIR FROM MILD AIR OVER THE E-CNTRL NY CORRIDOR WITH
SOME FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING FOR KGFL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR KALB-KPSF SOUTHWARD BEFORE A STEADIER
RAINSHIELD MOVES IN TOWARDS 12Z.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM LIFR/IFR AT KGFL/KALB TO VFR/MVFR AT
KPOU AND KPSF THIS MORNING. THE TREND WILL BE FOR WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE AT KPOU UNTIL AFTER 12Z...BUT EXPECT IFR
CIGS/VSBYS FOR KGFL...KALB...KPSF THROUGH MOST OF THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY PM...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS CNTRL/NRN NY.
EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE BACK ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL AROUND 10Z.
THE RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH BTWN 18Z-21Z FOR THE E-CNTRL NY
TERMINALS WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SOME IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS. THE CIGS MAY START TO RISE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E TO NE AT KALB AND KGFL EARLY THIS
MORNING AT 5-10 KTS...THEN VEER TO TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KTS BY 12Z
WITH SOME GUSTS AT KALB IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. KPOU AND KPSF WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS...THEN INCREASE TO 8-15 KTS
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KTS AT KPSF...AS THE STRONGER LLJ MOVES
IN ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM THE S/SW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS
AFTER 00Z/MON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CHRISTMAS DAY TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MILD TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SNOW MELT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE PROPAGATING ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO VERMONT WITH 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED IN THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
IN THE NORTH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST...BUT SNOW MELT
SLOWER...WHILE IN THE SOUTH RAINFALL WILL BE AROUND A HALF
INCH...BUT ALMOST ALL THE SNOW WILL MELT. IN THE SOUTH THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...BUT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL EXIST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN AND UP TO
AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT FROM SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED. FLOOD
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ041>043-083-084.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>040-042-
043-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...GJM/SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NEW YORK NY
125 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY. THE
FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST WEST OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL RECEIVE A CONTINUOUS FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST...INCREASING THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION. STRATUS HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND. FOG HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP BUT IS PATCHY IN COVERAGE WITHOUT TOO MUCH REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY.
LOOKING AT LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE FOG LOOKS TO INCREASE BY
09Z AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. KEEPING PATCHY COVERAGE OF FOG
UNTIL 08Z AND THEN EXPAND TO AREAS. MOST MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT
BRINGING MUCH LOWER VSBYS UNTIL AROUND 12-15Z WITH DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR DENSE FOG AND THIS WILL
BE AN ADVECTION FOG. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WINDS AND THIS CAN
BE CONVEYED BY ONGOING CONDITIONS. RELATIVELY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WITHOUT MUCH IF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION WITH A LITTLE MORE
REDUCTION INLAND WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER. IF WINDS FURTHER DECOUPLE
AND DECREASE...A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP.
REGARDING SHOWERS...TRENDED LOWER IN POPS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
BEING RESTRICTED TO MAINLY INTERIOR PORTIONS. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH HRRR FORECAST REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. STILL EXPECTING SOME DRIZZLE
TO FORM TOWARDS MORNING WITH SATURATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED WITH A
STEADY TO SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY FROM LOW AND MID 40S TO MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IF TEMPS WERE MIXED DOWN FROM H85...HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SUN. DESPITE THESE EXTREMELY WARM TEMPS ALOFT
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE AREA WILL REMAIN
SOCKED IN WITH STRATUS...FG AND DZ THRU THE DAY. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
HIGHS SO WENT WITH THE COOLEST GUIDANCE...THE MET. MOST IF NOT ALL
CLIMATE SITES HOWEVER SHOULD STILL BREAK THEIR RECORDS.
IF THE CLOUDS DO BREAK UP IN THE EARLY AFTN...TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP
INTO 70S GENERALLY FROM THE CITY N AND W.
CONTINUED CHC FOR MEASUREABLE RAIN COVERED WITH -SHRA DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAIN FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE TIL SUN NGT PER THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF. FCST THEREFORE BRINGS POPS UP THRU THE NGT...AND
TRANSITIONS PCPN TO MODERATE RAIN. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST WINDOW
FOR ACCUMULATING PCPN WILL OCCUR. IT WILL REMAIN STEAMY WITH LOW
TEMPS ABV MAX NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOUTHEAST RIDGE GIVES WAY TO DEEP TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH BRIEF RIDGING BY MID WEEK. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AT THE SFC...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE STALLED OR SLOW
MOVING FRONT MONDAY. THIS FRONT TRACKS TO THE EAST...WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH (ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH) MOVING THROUGH
SOMETIME TUESDAY.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THESE OVERALL FEATURES AND
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK.
RAIN...MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY AT TIMES...MONDAY WILL TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. MOISTURE THOUGH WILL BE LIMITED.
DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW MORE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
AS FOR TEMPS...LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM EARLY MORNING READINGS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. THEN A BRIEF SHOT OF
COLDER AIR MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY IN WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
HIGH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER CONTINUES
LATE IN THE WEEK.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND MONDAY...AND WPC/ECE AND MEX NUMBERS
FOLLOWED TUESDAY ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH SUN THEN TRACK ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DIFFICULT FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...06Z TAFS ARE A
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
STRATUS/FOG FINALLY DEVELOPING WITH IFR CONDS AT KGON/KISP. 00Z
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AND SINCE
CONDS AT W TERMINALS WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS TO DROP...HAVE
SIDED WITH THIS THINKING. EXCEPTIONS BEING KJFK/KHPN WHICH SHOULD DROP
TO LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN TIMING AND
FLIGHT CAT AFT 12Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WINDS. A 55-65KT LLJ BETWEEN 1500-2000
FT...WILL PEAK BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. ALREADY SEEING 55KT AT 2K FT
IN 435Z ACARS SOUNDING FROM KEWR. THINK SOME OF THIS WILL MIX
DOWN...WITH 20-30KT GUSTS BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z.
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE SW. LOOKS LIKE THEY MAY JUST MISS
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THEY GET CLOSER. KSWF
HAS THE HIGHEST CHC FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE AIRFIELD.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SCT SHOWERS WILL BE BEYOND 12Z...BUT
ORGANIZED FRONTAL SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OTHER TERMINALS
UNTIL AFT 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...MVFR-IFR IN FG/BR AND -SHRA.
.MON...MVFR-IFR IN -SHRA INTO THE AFTN...THEN CONDS IMPROVING W TO E.
WIND SHIFT FROM SW-NW WITH COLD FROPA AFTER 18Z.
.TUE...VFR. NW WIND 15-20G20-30KT.
.WED-THU...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
REDUCED VSBY AND MODERATE SSW FLOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS THRU SUN NGT. A SCA FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE HARBOR
TNGT THRU SUN NGT. STRONGEST WINDS ON THE ERN WATERS DUE TO THE SW
FETCH. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP
FOG DEVELOPMENT LIMITED. HAVE INCLUDED 1NM VSBY IN THE FCST...BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VSBY TO DROP BLW 1NM IF WINDS ARE WEAKER THAN
FCST. THIS WOULD REQUIRE A DENSE FG ADVY.
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY...OCEAN SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED. THEN THE LOW AND COLD FRONT DEPART...WITH GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THIS MID
WEEK TIMEFRAME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED THRU SUN. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MINOR ACCUMS. MOST OF THE MEASUREABLE RAIN IS FCST TO OCCUR SUN
NGT INTO MON. AROUND AN INCH OF BASIN AVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ATTM.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGHS AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
DECEMBER 22
RECORD FORECAST
EWR 65/1998 69
BDR 59/1998 59
NYC *63/1998 69
LGA 64/1998 67
JFK 62/1998 62
ISP 59/2011 62
* ALSO OCCURRED IN PREVIOUS YEARS
NOTE: RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT JFK AND ISP ON SUNDAY
DECEMBER 22. THE FORECAST LOW AT JFK IS 50 WITH A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF
50 IN 1990. THE FORECAST LOW AT ISP IS 53 WITH A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF
50 IN 1990.
THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR MONDAY DECEMBER 23
RECORD FORECAST
EWR 58/1990 53
BDR 51/1990 49
NYC 57/1990 56
LGA 54/1990 56
JFK 50/1990 51
ISP 52/1990 54
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-340-
345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...JMC/PW
HYDROLOGY...JMC
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST
TODAY TO NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
COLD NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER THE DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COLD CANADIAN AIR TO END THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING
POPS AND ONLY MENTIONING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GIVEN UPSTREAM
ECHOES OBSERVED THUS FAR AND HRRR PROGS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH A DRY SLOT PULLING NORTH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY . THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS
STILL STREAMING INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...BUT WAS PULLING EAST
QUICKLY. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
TO THE EAST OF TERRE HAUTE...VINCENNES AND LAFAYETTE.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. NAM AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL PLUME WILL QUICKLY PULL EAST AND THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL END BY 12Z...HOWEVER SEVERAL
LINGERING THINGS STILL EXIST THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY.
FIRST OFF...THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH PUSH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT AS THE
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONGLY CYCLONIC TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH RH/S TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP TODAY...RAIN INITIALLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FALL BELOW FREEZING THUS PRECIP
TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY AND A NON DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WILL BE USED. WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD EXPECTED 12Z VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND WILL USE A BLEND.
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INDIANA ON NORTHERLY WINDS AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -18C DEPENDING UPON YOUR FAVORITE MODEL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS UNAVAILABLE...YET
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ENTIRELY BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AMID SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS GIVEN ALL
OF THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM PULL THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF INDIANA ON
TUESDAY AS ANTICYCLONIC LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE EXTENDED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIVER
FLOODING TO RUN ITS COURSE. THAT BEING SIAD...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT TWO DIFFERENT SYSTEMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS SUNDAY.
SO...KEPT SMALL REGIONAL ALLBLEND POPS. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
ONLY SNOW AS PRECIPITATION TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LATE WEEKEND FRONTAL SYSTEM SUGGESTS
POSSIBILITY EXISTS OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IF NOT JUST RAIN.
ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
STARTING OFF IN THE 20S AND 30S AND THEN WARMING TO THE 30S AND 40S
BY SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT OR
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME AND VFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY BASED ON BASED
ON MODEL TIME SECTIONS. BASED ON CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS...HUF AND BMG
SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED CU TOMORROW WITH IND AND LAF EXPECTED TO
SEE CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING LIGHT CATEGORIES OVERALL.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF MID DAY MVFR CU MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL QUICKLY PULL NORTHEAST
TODAY TO NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
COLD NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HOWEVER THE DRY AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED BY
REINFORCING COLD CANADIAN AIR TO END THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE...BUT FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING
POPS AND ONLY MENTIONING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GIVEN UPSTREAM
ECHOES OBSERVED THUS FAR AND HRRR PROGS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE UNITED STATES...WITH A DRY SLOT PULLING NORTH INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY . THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS
STILL STREAMING INTO ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...BUT WAS PULLING EAST
QUICKLY. RADAR MOSAICS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
TO THE EAST OF TERRE HAUTE...VINCENNES AND LAFAYETTE.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE POPS. NAM AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL PLUME WILL QUICKLY PULL EAST AND THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL END BY 12Z...HOWEVER SEVERAL
LINGERING THINGS STILL EXIST THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME VERY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TODAY.
FIRST OFF...THE NAM AND THE GFS BOTH PUSH YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TOWARD CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT AS THE
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN STRONGLY CYCLONIC TODAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH RH/S TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIP TODAY...RAIN INITIALLY THIS
MORNING...BUT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FALL BELOW FREEZING THUS PRECIP
TYPE WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TODAY AND A NON DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WILL BE USED. WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD EXPECTED 12Z VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND WILL USE A BLEND.
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS INDIANA ON NORTHERLY WINDS AS 850MB
TEMPS FALL TO -15C TO -18C DEPENDING UPON YOUR FAVORITE MODEL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS UNAVAILABLE...YET
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE ENTIRELY BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO KEEP TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AMID SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS GIVEN ALL
OF THIS WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
GFS AND NAM PULL THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WELL EAST OF INDIANA ON
TUESDAY AS ANTICYCLONIC LOWER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A CLEAR SKY ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS GIVEN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS COOLER THAN THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM. THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE FORCING. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT
ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW GIVEN THE UPPER WAVE...SO WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF AND DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF
COLD AIR SHOTS BUT SAW NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM ALLBLEND WHICH
REPRESENTS A GOOD COMPROMISE.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES AT OR
SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME AND VFR AFTER 15Z MONDAY BASED ON BASED
ON MODEL TIME SECTIONS. BASED ON CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS...HUF AND BMG
SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED CU TOMORROW WITH IND AND LAF EXPECTED TO
SEE CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD REGARDING LIGHT CATEGORIES OVERALL.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR AT THE ONSET AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF MID DAY MVFR CU MONDAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/NIELD
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1119 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS EVENING WITH REGARD TO THE
IMPACTS OF THE WINTER STORM. HOWEVER...HERE IS AN UPDATE OF WHERE
THINGS STAND. WE ARE IN THE BRIEF LULL IN STRONG FORCING BETWEEN
THE EARLIER WAA PCPN OVER THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 AND THE UPCOMING
STRONG DEFORMATION ZONE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI. IN THE
MEAN TIME...WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW/LIGHT
SLEET CONTINUES OVER THE CWA. THE SNOW TO SLEET LINE SEEMS TO
CURRENTLY BE FROM NEAR BURLINGTON TO JUST EAST OF MOLINE...TO
DE KALB ILLINOIS. NORTHWEST OF THIS LINE...THE DOMINANT P-TYPE IS
SNOW...AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO. THE RAP MODEL WHICH IS
HANDLING THE 800MB WARM WEDGE NOTED ON THE 00Z DVN
SOUNDING...SHOWS A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE REMAINING CWA
BETWEEN NOW AND 3 AM. HRRR AND RAP...ALONG WITH THE 00Z NAM
INDICATE THE DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD HIT HARD SOMETIME ABOUT 10 PM
WEST...11 CENTRAL...TO MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD LAST THROUGH
15Z OR SO BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE REGION.
THUS...HEAVY SNOW RATES FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS SEEM LIKELY IN OUR
WESTERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD...MATCHING AMOUNTS WELL ENOUGH NOT THE CHANGE
THEM.
ERVIN
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
VIGOROUS WINTER STORM NOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION. STORM IS
LARGELY EVOLVING AS FORECAST. WARM WEDGE ALOFT RESULTING IN FREEZING
RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SURFACE LOW NOW OVER
ARKANSAS WILL TRACK UP THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIP
SHIELD SPREAD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SLIGHTLY MORE INTO OUR AREA AS
THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST...RESULTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIP THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS VIA
AWIPS AND BUFKIT SHOW CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THEN FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW AS THE MAIN WAVE
APPROACHES.
MAIN SNOWFALL EVENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP NOW
OVER EASTERN OK AND KS WILL CONGEAL INTO INTENSE DEFORMATION ZONE
ACROSS NORTHERN MO AND EASTERN IA THIS EVENING. IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ONLY BE OFFSET BY RAPID
MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM. STILL...WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF INTENSE
SNOWFALL RATES FROM LATE EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD MORNING...CREATING POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
LIGHT SNOW FROM THE WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING
AND SLOWLY END ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS. CLOUD COVER WILL AID IN
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP BUT THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL MIGHT BE NEEDED OVER PART OF THE WESTERN
THIRD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO KEEP FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW GOING FOR A GOOD PART OF MONDAY
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES. BASED ON
PROJECTED LOWS AND WINDS...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WOULD BE NEEDED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH FRESH SNOW
AND DECREASING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH LOW TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LOWS MAY PUSH 20 BELOW IN THE FAVORED
COLD AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
ON TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NORTHERN THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 10 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUES NIGHT/WED AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED NIGHT AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED BUT SNOW/RAIN RATIOS WILL BE
HIGH. SO WHAT MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WILL GO INTO PRODUCING A VERY
DRY SNOW. A REASONABLE GUESS ON AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT WOULD BE AROUND
AN INCH WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
AREA.
THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS BUT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS WARMER RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 1116 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
IFR CONDITIONS TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PRECEDE A LARGE WINTER
STORM OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY IN EASTERN IOWA AND ILLINOIS. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO BE
15 TO 20 KTS...GUSTING TO MID 20S AT TIMES. CIGS OF 100 FT TO 800
FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 OR LESS AT TIMES...OVERNIGHT
IN ALL LOCATIONS EXPECT POSSIBLY BRL. SNOW WILL END BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY...BUT FOLLOWING THIS TIME...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CAN
BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY POOR FLYING
FORECAST...WITH SHORT TERM ICING AT TERMINALS FOLLOWED BY HEAVY
SNOW.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
801 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...CALLS TO SPOTTERS FROM BROWNVILLE-LINCOLN-
TOPSFIELD INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW.
THE SNOW MAYBE MIXED WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT HOUR IN
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. HAVE ALLOWED ALL OF THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORIES/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THE ABOVE CORRIDOR TO
EXPIRE AS OF 8 PM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS WITH REPORTS OF MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN UPSTREAM OF HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. HAVE EXTENDED THE ICE STORM WARNINGS
UNTIL 10 PM AND BEEFED UP THE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR A COUPLE OF
MORE HOURS. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY END AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL SOME FZRA AFFECTING THE ICE STORM WRNG AND FZRA ADV AREAS
AT THE TM OF THIS UPDATE. WE DID XTND THE END TM OF THESE HDLNS
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE NRN WNTR WX ADV FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HRS...WHILE TRUNCATING ZONES 3...4 AND 10 FROM THE WNTR WX ADV DUE
TO MIXED PRECIP ENDING THERE.
OTHERWISE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIP
WINDING DOWN FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FA BY LATE EVE...SO IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WILL NEED TO XTND REMAINING WNTR WX HDLNS
ANY FURTHER. OTHERWISE...COLDER AIR WITH CLRG TO PRTL CLRG SKIES
ARE SLATED FOR THE FA LATE TNGT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. A SIG
NW BREEZE IS LIKELY TO CONT ON TUE...WITH POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS
FOR FURTHER DAMAGE IN THE MAX ICE ACCRETION ZONE DOWNEAST IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANNY MELTING...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY N OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ON TUE...HI
TEMPS TUE WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES AT BEST FROM OVRNGT
LOWS UNDER MSLY CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR A BITTERLY COLD
CHRISTMAS DAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.
MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SN AND/OR MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR
CONTG THRU THE DAY TUE.
SHORT TERM:IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW AND FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR OUTER MZS050-051
INTO TUE AFTN BASED ON BLENDED FCST WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN GFS WV HTS
WHICH ALSO HAD TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY 1 TO 2 FT THRU TNGT GIVEN
THE LATEST LOW BIAS COMPARED TO BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS 5-7 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/VJN/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
554 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
554 PM UPDATE...CALLS TO WEATHER SPOTTERS INDICATE A COUPLE OF
REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY SHORTLY
BEFORE 6 PM...SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TWO
MORE HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
ZONES 5 AND 6...AND THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FROM THE KCBW 88-D
IS DOING A GOOD JOB AT DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN ALL SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL SOME FZRA AFFECTING THE ICE STORM WRNG AND FZRA ADV AREAS
AT THE TM OF THIS UPDATE. WE DID XTND THE END TM OF THESE HDLNS
AND WHATS LEFT OF THE NRN WNTR WX ADV FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HRS...WHILE TRUNCATING ZONES 3...4 AND 10 FROM THE WNTR WX ADV DUE
TO MIXED PRECIP ENDING THERE.
OTHERWISE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIP
WINDING DOWN FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FA BY LATE EVE...SO IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WILL NEED TO XTND REMAINING WNTR WX HDLNS
ANY FURTHER. OTHERWISE...COLDER AIR WITH CLRG TO PRTL CLRG SKIES
ARE SLATED FOR THE FA LATE TNGT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. A SIG
NW BREEZE IS LIKELY TO CONT ON TUE...WITH POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS
FOR FURTHER DAMAGE IN THE MAX ICE ACCRETION ZONE DOWNEAST IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANNY MELTING...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY N OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ON TUE...HI
TEMPS TUE WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES AT BEST FROM OVRNGT
LOWS UNDER MSLY CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR A BITTERLY COLD
CHRISTMAS DAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.
MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SN AND/OR MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR
CONTG THRU THE DAY TUE.
SHORT TERM:IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW AND FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR OUTER MZS050-051
INTO TUE AFTN BASED ON BLENDED FCST WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN GFS WV HTS
WHICH ALSO HAD TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY 1 TO 2 FT THRU TNGT GIVEN
THE LATEST LOW BIAS COMPARED TO BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS 5-7 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-
032.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...CB/VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...CB/VJN/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
335 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME FZRA AFFECTING THE ICE STORM WRNG AND FZRA ADV AREAS AT
THE TM OF THIS UPDATE. WE DID XTND THE END TM OF THESE HDLNS AND
WHATS LEFT OF THE NRN WNTR WX ADV FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HRS...WHILE
TRUNCATING ZONES 3...4 AND 10 FROM THE WNTR WX ADV DUE TO MIXED
PRECIP ENDING THERE.
OTHERWISE MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE PRECIP
WINDING DOWN FROM W TO E ACROSS THE FA BY LATE EVE...SO IT
APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WILL NEED TO XTND REMAINING WNTR WX HDLNS
ANY FURTHER. OTHERWISE...COLDER AIR WITH CLRG TO PRTL CLRG SKIES
ARE SLATED FOR THE FA LATE TNGT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. A SIG
NW BREEZE IS LIKELY TO CONT ON TUE...WITH POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS
FOR FURTHER DAMAGE IN THE MAX ICE ACCRETION ZONE DOWNEAST IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANNY MELTING...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY N OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ON TUE...HI
TEMPS TUE WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES AT BEST FROM OVRNGT
LOWS UNDER MSLY CLR TO PTLY CLDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR A BITTERLY COLD
CHRISTMAS DAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.
MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CURRENT IFR CONDITIONS IN SN AND/OR MIXED PRECIP SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR
CONTG THRU THE DAY TUE.
SHORT TERM:IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW AND FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR OUTER MZS050-051
INTO TUE AFTN BASED ON BLENDED FCST WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN GFS WV HTS
WHICH ALSO HAD TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY 1 TO 2 FT THRU TNGT GIVEN
THE LATEST LOW BIAS COMPARED TO BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS 5-7 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011-
032.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ005-
006-031.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...VJN/OKULSKI
MARINE...VJN/OKULSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
644 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFF THE
COAST LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
645AM UPDATE...
COLD AIR IS FINALLY MAKING PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHWEST... WITH
PORTLAND NOW DOWN TO 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER... THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST. EXPECT ANOTHER FEW ROUNDS OF RAIN
TO MOVE THROUGH... THOUGH THEY WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE LAST
ROUND. STILL MAINTAINING CURRENT HEADLINES THOUGH THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE LESS TOTAL ICING ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND MORE OF A MIX IN NORTHEAST ZONES. THE
MIDCOAST REGION AND INTERIOR AREAS LIKE AUGUSTA AND WATERVILLE
WILL LIKELY BE HARDEST HIT BY THE ICE. MEANWHILE... THE
FLIRTATIONS WITH SLEET AND SNOW CONTINUE. 12Z GYX SOUNDING HAS A
+11C LAYER AT 850 MB (THOUGH -4C JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE)... WHICH
IS VERY MUCH A FREEZING RAIN SOUNDING. HOWEVER... THE GRADIENT
JUST NORTH OF HERE IS VERY STOUT. NAM MODEL IS SHOWING THIS
WELL... BUT PROBABLY NOT EXTREME ENOUGH. SEVERAL REPORTS FROM
AUGUSTA AREA OF SLEET AND OCCASIONALLY SNOW. THE SLEET IS LOGICAL
FROM THE DEEP COLD LAYER BELOW THE WARM LAYER ALOFT... BUT THE
SNOW IS NOT AS SIMPLE TO EXPLAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
SNOW IN THIS REGION IS BEING GENERATED BELOW THE ABOVE FREEZING
LAYER... FULLY WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COLD LAYER WHICH IS JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW FORMATION. AS A RESULT... SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT
DUE TO THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE LAYER IN WHICH IT IS BEING
GENERATED. EXPECT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY TO FALL
AS FREEZING RAIN OR MAYBE SLEET. HAVE PUT A LOT OF EFFORT INTO THE
HOURLY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO TRY TO SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF
SEVERAL WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... BASED
HEAVILY ON THE HRRR FORECAST.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
FIRST ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS MOVING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. FREEZING LINE HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH... WITH THE LINE EXISTING ROUGHLY FROM COLEBROOK TO NORTH OF
BERLIN DOWN TO LEWISTON AND OFFSHORE NEAR WISCASSET AND HAS HELD
STEADY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THIS
LINE... RAIN IS FREEZING AS IT REACHES THE SURFACE. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH... A CHANGE TO SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED ROUGHLY FROM THE
VT/QUEBEC BORDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTH OF EUSTIS
AND SOUTH OF GREENVILLE AND OVER TO HOULTON. WITH FEW AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS WHICH REPORT WEATHER IN THIS REGION... CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS REGRETTABLY LOW. INTERPRETATION OF DUAL POL
RADAR SEEMS TO PRODUCE A VERY SIMILAR SNOW LINE TO WHAT WAS JUST
DESCRIBED... HOWEVER BECAUSE THE RADAR BEAM IS HIGH IN THIS AREA
IT IS LESS USEFUL AS A DETERMINATOR. ONE OTHER INTERESTING FACT IS
THAT BANGOR HAS BEEN REPORTING SLEET FOR SEVERAL HOURS...
OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SNOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD AIR IN
THIS AREA IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SLEET... AND OCCASIONALLY
SNOW. THIS COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MAINE TODAY AS THE CURRENT WAVE BRINGING
THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST. THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR MIDCOAST
REGION HAS A CHANCE TO CHANGE TO SLEET OR SNOW FOR A BIT... BUT
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP CURRENT WARNING HEADLINES IN PLACE TO AVOID
CONFUSION SINCE THE ICING HAZARD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT.
BATCH OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKES IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD MAINTAIN ITSELF A BIT
INTO VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 6-8 AM. HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST... BUT DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BY AROUND 15Z... WITH ANOTHER
ROUND PROBABLY STARTING BY 18Z. BY THIS TIME... THE FREEZING LINE
WILL LIKELY HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWEST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE... ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS A LARGER AREA. HAVE
A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT THE FREEZING LINE WILL MOVE
ALL THE WAY INTO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY OR CENTRAL MERRIMACK COUNTY...
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN THERE EVEN THOUGH
HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO FALL TO 33-34 AS THERE IS
A CHANCE TEMPERATURES FALL LOWER THAN FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN
THE STRUCTURE OF ADVISORY AND WARNING HEADLINES TODAY.
AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY BE HARDEST HIT BY ICING TODAY ARE AREAS
CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED. THE AREA INCLUDING LEWISTON...
AUGUSTA... AND BELFAST HAVE LIKELY ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT ICING
AND ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 0.5
INCHES. SOME REPORTS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH HAVE AN INCREASINGLY LOWER CHANCE OF REACHING THE 0.5 INCH
LEVEL AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
FIRST HEAVY BATCH OF RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE TONIGHT... AND ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS BEGIN TO EXPIRE AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
MOVES EAST. IN FACT... AS THE LAST WAVE MOVES EAST... SOME WARMER
AIR MAY MIX DOWN AND ALLOW MUCH OF THE NEW HAMPSHIRE TO RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AND MUCH OF MAINE TO FOLLOW SUIT MONDAY MORNING.
ON MONDAY... ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE
OFFSHORE FRONT. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION
INTO COASTAL AREAS... BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. HAVE EXTENDED THE ICE STORM
WARNING THROUGH NOON FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE AS
TEMPERATURES HERE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF STAYING BELOW FREEZING
AS PRECIPITATION STARTS UP AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT.
AN AREA OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY. SHOULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
THROUGH. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK BUT THIS
COLD AIR LIFTS OUT QUICKLY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS OFF ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WITH THE ECMWF BEING SLOWER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE FREEZING RAIN ARE THE MAINE
TERMINALS. PORTSMOUTH... CONCORD... WHITEFIELD... AND LEBANON MAY
NOT SEE FREEZING RAIN.
LONG TERM...EXPECT MVFR FOR PWM AND PSM MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT SLIDES OFF THE COAST. VFR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF THE OFFSHORE FRONT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT... SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A GENERIC ADVISORY
TO COVER BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR MEZ012>014-019>022-
024>028.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ018-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ002-004.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ003-005-
006-008>010-013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...HAWLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY...REACHING NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590 IN EFFECT UNTIL 15Z FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
EXCEPT FOR LOWER SRN MD.
AS OF 0830Z...AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AND A BERMUDA HIGH. 988 MB SFC LOW OVER WRN OH AND TRACKING
NE. QLCS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE ALLEGHENY FRONT FROM THE WEST.
SYSTEM HAS A HISTORY OF 60 TO 65 MPH GUSTS. VERY DYNAMIC
SYSTEM...HIGH SHEAR AND LOW CAPE. JUST BECAUSE THERE IS LITTLE IF
ANY LIGHTNING DOES NOT MEAN THESE LINES ARE NOT STRONG. HOW WELL THE
LINES SURVIVE CROSSING THE ROAD BUMPS OF THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. 05Z HRRR DOES BRING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LINE
ACROSS THE METRO AREAS THROUGH THE MID MORNING. A GOOD PROXY FOR
BALT-WASH WILL BE KMRB AND KHGR WHICH SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10Z
AND 11Z. BALT-WASH CORRIDOR IS PROGGED BE IMPACTED 11Z TO 13Z.
WIND ADVISORY FOR 40 KT GUSTS ABOVE 2000 FT ON THE RIDGELINES. THIS
IS ESSENTIALLY AHEAD OF THE LINE...I.E. UNTIL 8 AM OR SO.
TODAY...THE SFC LOW SLOWLY FILLS AS IT MOVES NE TO NY STATE. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHES WV BY SUNSET...BUT STALLS WELL INTO
MONDAY. EXPECT A MORNING WAVE OF PRECIP...THEN A SECONDARY WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN TEMPERATURES TODAY...ALREADY AROUND 70F THIS
MORNING. LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY
LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FLOODING THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN ALONG STALLED COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES DOMINATING AT THIS TIME...NO
FLOOD WATCH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE BOUNDARIES SET UP. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF FAVOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF DC FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
UPSLOPE SNOW ON BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIGHT FOR LATE
MONDAY...PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO ABOVE 3 KFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT 36 HRS WL FEATURE PLENTY OF WX...BEGINNING MON NGT
THINGS BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN. FNT IS XPCTD TO BE MOVG
OFFSHORE...HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA. IT`S DFCLT TO ENVISION
SNOW IN THE FCST WHEN THE CURRENT TEMPS ARE RANGING FM 65-70...BUT
W/ COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRES STARTING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE RGN
THE SUB-1300 850-1000 THCKNS LN LOOKS TO BE MOVG E OF THE BLU RDG
AFTR MDNGT MON NGT. UPSLOPE SNOWS XPCTD TO BEGIN ON THE WRN SLOPES
OF THE HIGHLANDS AFTR MDNGT AS WELL. IF ACCUMS OCCUR IT IS LOOKING
TO BE LGT - UPR TROF WL MOVE E TO THE CST TUE AFTN...SFC HIGH PRES
IS XPCTD TO BUILD IN QUICKLY.
LOW ON NGT MOVG BACK TOWARDS LATE DEC NORMS...20S BLUE RDG AND
W....30S E. TUE HIGHS IN THE 30S BLUE RDG AND W...L40S E.
HIGH PRES SETTLES OVR THE AREA TUE NGT BRINGING CLR SKIES FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. LOWS IN THE 20S E OF THE MTNS...MU TEENS W OF BLUE
RDG...L TEENS IN THE HIGHLANDS.
CHRISTMAS DAY STILL LOOKING NICE UNDER HIGH PRES - SUNNY SKIES W/
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
AN UPPER SHORT WV TROF LOOKS TO TRACK N OF THE AREA FRI. FOR NOW
THE DAY WL BE LEFT DRY. HIGH PRES THEN XPCTD TO RETURN FOR NEXT WKND.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CIGS IN STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. LINES OF WINDY SHOWERS APPROACH
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THEM AS
THEY CROSS THE APPALACHIAN RIDGES. LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
SLOW BUT GRADUAL CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO A RISE IN CEILINGS AND IMPROVING VISIBILITY...RESULTING
IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
VFR CONDS TUE THRU THU.
&&
.MARINE...
S-SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GUST UP TO 30 KT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...SLOWLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENDED SCA FOR WATERS
SOUTH OF SANDY PT AND MIDDLE/LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC FOR THIS EVENING.
RAIN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH STALLED COLD FRONT. GUSTS WITH THE
RAIN COULD REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
KT.
HIGH PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA MON NGT AND TUE WL LKLY LEAD TO SCA`S
FOR ALL OF THE WATERS. HIGH PRES BLDG OVR THE AREA TUE NGT THRU
THU - NO PROBS ON THE WATERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPS SET ON SAT AT IAD...DCA...BWI...MRB. RECORD HIGH
MINS SET SAT AT IAD...DCA...AND BWI. THE BWI AND DCA MIN RECORDS
WERE 118 YRS OLD!
RECORDS HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY AND MON:
12/22...
MIN MAX
BWI...48 (1931)......70 (1889)
DCA...49 (1923)......72 (1889)
IAD...49 (1990)......67 (1984)
12/23...(HI MIN ONLY)
BWI...59 (1990)*
DCA...57 (1990)
IAD...61 (1990)*
* = HIGHEST MIN TEMP IN DECEMBER. THE HIGHEST DECEMBER MIN TEMP
FOR THE DCA PERIOD OF RECORD WAS 59 ON DEC 5 1973.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ025>027-029-
030-036>040-503-504.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ055-501-502-
505-506.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ532>534-536-537-540>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
531-535-538-539.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...BAJ/WOODY!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 5H TROUGH
SLOWLY PUSHING E ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL TRANSITION TO Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE THIS EVENING. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS NE WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IMPACTING MAINLY FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. A
FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS HAVE PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW. LES HAS BEEN VERY FLUFFY WITH SNOW RATIOS 40-50/1.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONTINUING LES EVENT FOR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISHING LES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
MORE INTENSE LES BANDS AND THUS GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
ERN HALF OF MQT COUNTY INTO PERHAPS WRN ALGER COUNTY. GIVEN
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUING LES ACCUMULATION INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
HRS WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON AND MQT-BARAGA
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
LES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
HRS WITH Q-VECT DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENING WIND
FIELDS. LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE MAY STRENGTHEN DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS
AND DEVELOPING LAND BREEZES TO ALLOW MORE LOCALLY INTENSE LES BANDS
TO FORM AND PERHAPS EVEN A MESOLOW OR TWO OFF THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER MQT BAY AS DEPICTED BY LOCAL AND REGIONAL
MESOSCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING SFC RDG AXIS SHOULD KEEP LES BANDS OR
MESOLOW FEATURES MOVING ENOUGH EASTWARD TO EFFECTIVELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS WHERE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS LINGER. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR
EAST AND INTERIOR WEST SECTIONS. THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BDR
WITH LIKELY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PLUMMET TO 10 BELOW OR COLDER WHERE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER LUCE COUNTY COULD ALSO DIP NEAR 10 BELOW
ZERO. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN
REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF FOR MIN TEMPS.
TUESDAY...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OVER
NCNTRL CWA WILL BE PUSHED OUT OVR SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SSW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN SOME
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
START INCREASING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION SSW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. NAM ALSO SHOWS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA 00Z WED. BOTH THE LOW AND
THE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST WITH THE REMAINS OF THE LOW HELPING TO
DIG A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED. NAM SHOWS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TUE NIGHT LASTING INTO WED BEFORE BOTH MOVE OUT WED NIGHT
INTO THU. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM COMES IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND WILL HAVE SOME LAKE
MICHIGAN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE ERN CWA WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COULD SEE UP TO 8 INCHES IN ERN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT THOUGH EACH DAY FOR LOWS AND HIGHS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU AS THE TEMPERATURES SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM CONSIDERING
THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
12Z SAT WHICH WILL MEAN A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS STARTING. A BROAD
500 MB TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN AND INTO
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN RULE FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GOING BACK BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SAT AND THIS WOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON
LIGHT NRLY WINDS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT AT IWD AND TUE MORNING AT CMX AND SAW AS LAKE EFFECT COMES
TO AN ENDS WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT
MORE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...SOUTH WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THEN...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ TONIGHT
FOR MIZ002-009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
300 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NE THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WEAKENING
LIFT AS NOTED ON MID-LVL Q-VECT ANALYSIS AND EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
Q-VECT DIVERGENCE HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED SYSTEM SNOW OVER THE EAST
HALF OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SYSTEM SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SCNTRL AND ERN COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA
WILL LIKELY END UP IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS LOCALLY
RECEIVING 4 INCHES. SNOW RATIOS APPEAR TO BE LOWER THAN EXPECTED IN
PREV FCST LEADING TO DIMINISHED SNOW AMTS. SNOWFLAKES HERE AT NWS
MQT ARE QUITE SMALL LEADING TO 6/1 SLR ON THE 18Z. DESPITE
DIMINISHED SNOW AMTS...SMALL FLAKES ARE RESULTING IN REDUCED VSBYS.
SOME ACCIDENTS ALSO REPORTED IN MENOMINEE COUNTY FROM SLIPPERY ROADS
THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH SYSTEM SNOW BASICALLY DONE THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
LES WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING IN NE FLOW.
GRADUALLY COLDER 8H TEMPS MOVING IN FM THE WEST BEHIND DEPARTED LOW
SHOULD ALLOW SNOW RATIOS TO INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT TO NEAR 20/1
WEST AND NCNTRL AS NOTED ON BUFKIT SNDG DATA. THE INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER OVER-WATER TEMPS ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AND ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL FROM APPROACHING MID-LVL TROUGH FM THE NRN
PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AMTS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR FAR WEST AND NCNTRL COUNTIES. NO BIG CHANGES
EXPECTED WITH FORECAST AS LES ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR
GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON AND BARAGA-MARQUETTE COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTING STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING A FOOT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS FROM NORTH OF KIWD TO THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND FROM
HERMAN THROUGH HURON MOUNTAINS TO NEGAUNEE. BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE
WRN COUNTIES IS THAT LES AMOUNTS MAY BE LESS THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED IN IWD AREA AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANGING ON TO THE NE
FLOW A BIT LONGER THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH MAY PUSH THE BEST LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE AND THUS DOMINANT LES BANDS WEST OF KIWD. LES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY PICK UP OVER THE FAR WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BACK FM NE TO NNE BUT INITIAL LACK OF MODERATE SNOW COULD LIMIT
STORM AMOUNTS IN THE KIWD AREA TO CLOSER TO 8 INCHES. PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL SEE TOTALS APPROACHING A FOOT THROUGH THE
EVENT.
AS MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE MON AFTERNOON...MODELS
SHOW Q-VECT CONV DIMINISHING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL AT THAT TIME AND ALLOW FOR LES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST INTO MON EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI AT 00Z
TUE...EXITING E BY 06Z TUE AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE CWA
FROM THE NW. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO THE CENTRAL CWA BY 00Z WED. THE
12Z/22 NAM IS NOT AS STRONG OR AS FAST WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM...AND ALSO HAS THE SFC TROUGH BEING STRONGER
WITH A MESO LOW OVER SCENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR EVEN AFTER THE RIDGE
MOVES OVER. THINK THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS SHOW IT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE NAM. EXPECT ONGOING
LES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO TAPER OFF THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING. GENERALLY...2-4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED MON
NIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NCENTRAL UPPER MI...WITH OTHER
AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SEEING 1-2 INCHES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A QUICK /6
HOUR OR LESS DURATION/ COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MI TUE NIGHT. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.P.
CHRISTMAS MORNING...SSE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS AROUND -14C
WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. COULD SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES IN AROUND 12
HOURS. COLDER AIR COMES IN WITH NW LOW LEVEL WINDS LATER CHRISTMAS
DAY...LEADING TO NW WIND LES THAT WILL PERSIST UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES
THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE CWA MAY SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT AREA WIDE SNOW
FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT SOME MODELS SHOW MOVING THROUGH...BUT
IF...WHEN AND WHERE ARE QUESTIONS THAT MAKE THIS VERY UNCERTAIN.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE DECREASES FARTHER OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MODELS DO GENERALLY AGREE ON MODERATING TEMPERATURES ON SAT
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING
COLDER FOR NEXT SUN. RAN WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
WITH NE WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...MVFR CIGS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST PD.
VISIBILITIES HAVE DECREASED TO IFR TODAY AT KCMX AND KSAW WITH THE
FINE-FLAKED SYSTEM SNOW SPREADING INTO THE REGION. AS SYSTEM SNOW
EXITS EAST THIS EVENING EXPECT A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. PREVAILING VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE
ESPECIALLY AS FLOW BACKS FROM NE TO NNE ON MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THESE
WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE WINDS FINALLY
SLACKEN. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ007-
013-014-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST /11 PM CST/ MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY
FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
202 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL GENERATE PERIODS
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
MID AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR WILL FILTER
BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS
EAST...GENERATING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN.
CHANCES FOR SNOW CONTINUES CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPERS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
WEATHER EVENT STARTING TO UNFOLD. INITIAL NRN EDGE OF OF
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...HAS WORKED INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SNOW WAS
ALREADY LIGHT...AND WILL LIGHTEN MORE AND MAYBE EVEN STOP FOR
JUST A BIT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THEN...NEXT ROUND OF
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION FROM SW LOWER AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN RACE
IN 09-12Z. THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW IS DUE IN PART TO JUST
WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING ATTM...AND POSSIBLY LESS LOW LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION...STOLEN TO SOME DEGREE FROM EARLIER
CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS.
THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL SET FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. STRONGEST FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE KANSAS
CITY AREA...NOW STARTING TO LIFT INTO NW IL/SRN WI...AND SNOW WAS
DEVELOPING/EXPANDING. WHILE LATEST HI RES HRRR IS CURIOUSLY
SUGGESTING A LULL 11-15Z...THAT IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
FORCING/DEFORMATION WILL START TO MOVE IN. THIS IS WHEN IT
SHOULD BE DEVELOPING THE MAIN SNOW OVERHEAD. HARDEST FALLING SNOW
WILL BE 13Z-18Z IN NRN LOWER...AND 16-20Z ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.
FCST SOUNDINGS STILL DO SUGGEST A MIX WITH SLEET MAYBE NEAR THE
SAG BAY THROUGH 13Z...BUT THEN THINGS SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...SNOW AMOUNTS AND
QPF LOOK GOOD. NO REAL SIGNIFICANT UPDATES. WILL BE SENDING OUT
SPSAPX OVERNIGHT WHEN HEAVIER SNOWS START TO MOVE IN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
SNOW HAS BACKED UP INTO ARENAC AND PARTS OF GLADWIN AND IOSCO
COUNTIES. THE NEXT NORTHWARD PUSH IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE MI. THAT SAID...MOST GRID FINE-TUNING TO
THIS POINT INVOLVES SLOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF SNOW INTO
NORTHERN MI. ONSET HAS BEEN SLOWED BY A COUPLE OF HOURS IN MUCH OF
NORTHERN MI...WITH PRECIP HELD BACK BY DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL AIR
FEEDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE (NOTING THAT EASTERN UPPER MI
IS CLEAR BELOW CIRRUS LEVEL).
TO COUNTER THAT...SNOW INTENSITY MAY BE MORE IMPRESSIVE LATE TONIGHT
(AFTER 08Z) THAN EARLIER PROGGED. STORM-RELATIVE EASTERLY FLOW IN
THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT REALLY TAKES OFF AFTER 06Z...THANKS TO
TIGHTENING PRESSURE/HEIGHT GRADIENTS OVER LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...AND A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN STORM MOTION TO THE NE.
DESPITE THE SLOWER ONSET...AM CONCERNED THAT QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS MAY
BE A BIT LOW IN PARTS OF N CENTRAL/NE LOWER...ESPECIALLY FROM
GRAYLING TO APN. COULD STAND TO ADD ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMS TO
THESE AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT (THOUGH ELIMINATING THE SAME FROM
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY FORECAST...NOT CHANGING OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS
MUCH).
NO CHANGES TO OUR PRESENT HEADLINES. NEW WSW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
BETWEEN 11 PM AND MIDNIGHT TO FRESHEN TIMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
998MB LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS LIFTED PAST LOUISVILLE...CINCY AND
COLUMBUS. WARM CONVEYOR BELT ARCS FROM SW INDIANA TOWARD LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT POKES SW-WARD FROM
SOUTHERN LOWER MI TO NORTHERN MIZZOU...AND IT IS THIS PART OF THE
STORM THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MI AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES NE. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN FAR SE SECTIONS LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO
PRECIP TIMING...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
INVERTED SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN GULF UP THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP UNDERWAY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
AXIS. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NRN TEXAS AND ABOUT TO SWING
UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT...THEN
UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SFC LOW ON TRACK
TO SPIN UP ALONG THE EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ADVANCE UP
THROUGH NRN OHIO/FAR SE LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
KICKING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. ONGOING WARM
CONVEYOR PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH WILL INITIALLY PUSH UP INTO PARTS OF
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATER TONIGHT BEFORE GETTING PINCHED OFF AND
KICKED INTO THE EASTERN LAKES SUNDAY. HOWEVER...HEAVIER WRAP
AROUND/DEFORMATION SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW IS
OUR BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PERIOD OF HEAVIEST
SNOW LOOKING TO OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE SWINGS UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO AMONGST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST DAY...AND EVEN THE NAM SOLUTION (WHICH HAS
HAD THE FURTHEST NORTHERN TRACK) HAS ADJUSTED BACK SOUTH WITH ITS
18Z RUN. SO ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUE TO GIVE NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN A MAINLY SNOW...WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SLEET OVER THE FAR SE COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT.
CONSENSUS QPF FORECAST DRAGS HEAVIEST QPF BULLSEYE RIGHT UP ACROSS
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
SKIMMING FAR EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW ON SUNDAY.
AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS GO...BASICALLY HAVE A 2 PERIOD (TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW) COMBINED TOTAL OF 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES LIQUID OVER NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN...0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES IN EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OF COURSE BE DEPENDENT ON JUST WHAT SNOW:WATER
RATIOS ARE REALIZED. HAVE <10:1 RATIOS OVER THE S/SE COUNTIES AND
10-15:1 FOR NRN HALF OF THE CWA...YIELDING A NICE 4 TO 7 INCHES
SWEET SPOT CENTERED UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE LAST DAY OR
TWO. PLAN NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
HAVE ALREADY ADDED EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO AN ADVISORY FOR
SOME BEEFIER SNOWFALL OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THOSE COUNTIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
LET THE COLD AND SNOW CONTINUE! REALLY NO BIG SIGNS OF ANY BREAK
FROM THE ONGOING STRETCH OF COLD/SNOWY WEATHER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...
WITH PERSISTENT GULF OF ALASKA RIDGING FAVORING DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
RENEWAL THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THAT
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR FLOWING OUT OF CANADA...WITH A COUPLE
REINFORCING SHOTS OF CHILLY WEATHER EXPECTED AS STRONGER UPPER
WAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN LAKES. GUIDANCE TRENDS
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF SUCH
FEATURES...WITH ONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS DAY ITSELF...AND
ANOTHER ONE THE DAY AFTER...SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN MORE TYPICAL LAKE
EFFECT CONDITIONS BOTH EARLY AND LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEK. ALL THE
WHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
STARTING THIS WHOLE THING OFF...THE LAST VESTIGES OF HEAVIER SNOW
SHOULD BE EXITING THE REGION BEFORE 00Z...AS THE STRONGER SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE SHEARS OUT INTO ONTARIO AND DYNAMIC FORCING GOES TO
ZERO. THAT WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A RATHER NEBULOUS REGIME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PARTS OF MONDAY...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY WHILE A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CARVES OUT OVER
THE WESTERN LAKES. MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
DEPARTING SYSTEM SHOULD DRAW IN SOME QUITE CHILLY BUT SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR RIGHT ON THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...INTERACTING WITH THE BAGGY
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PERHAPS PRODUCE A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE LAKE
VORTICES...NONE OF WHICH ARE HIGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT HINTS OF A STRONGER CONVERGENCE
BAND TAKING SHAPE DOWNSTATE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS
TO REMAIN SHARPEST...ALL WHILE DRIER SUB-850MB AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HONESTLY...JUST A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR HOW THINGS WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY OUT...BUT DOES LOOK
LIKE THERE COULD BE SOME PESKY LINGERING LIGHT SNOWS RIGHT ON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLUMN REMAINS NEARLY SATURATED...WITH
PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE FLUFF TO THE SNOW WITH AN EVER-DEEPENING DGZ.
A STRONGER SOUTHERN MID-LAKE MICHIGAN CONVERGENCE BAND SHOULD GET
TURNED ASHORE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALOFT...BUT THE SETUP FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN LOOKS
MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE...WITH MEAN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FAVORING
SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE ONLY NEAR THE LAKESHORES...AS THE LOW LEVELS
DRY EVEN FURTHER. IN FACT...THAT SETUP MAY EVEN LEAD TO SOME
CLEARING LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH
TUESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKING DOWNRIGHT COLD AS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
RESIDES OVERHEAD. SHOULD SEE HIGHS NO BETTER THAN THE MID TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME SPOTS (HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER) MORE
THAN LIKELY STRUGGLING THROUGH THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKING A LITTLE MORE SNOWY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
CONTINUED HINTS THAT ANOTHER DECENT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...GUIDANCE IS PEGGING A MODERATE SHOT
OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT...SUFFICIENT TO BRING A ROUND
OF SYNOPTIC SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. A VERY PRELIMINARY
ACCUMULATION GUESS WOULD BE A QUICK INCH OR TWO BASED ON THE
FAST-HITTING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT OF COURSE LOTS CAN CHANGE.
THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS WITH A QUITE COLD
PRE-SYSTEM AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND RATHER STRONG SUB-800MB SOUTHWEST
FLOW PROGGED. DURATION OF THAT FLOW IS ALSO MODELED AROUND 18
HOURS...SO NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME SPOTS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY TOTALS.
CONFIDENCE A LITTLE LOWER WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...
AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DROPS INTO GREAT LAKES. ECMWF HAS
FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEEN THE STRONGEST OUTLIER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. GFS HAS BEEN
TRENDING THIS WAY SLOWLY...WITH WHAT LOOKS (ON PAPER AT LEAST) LIKE
A FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE SNOWS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOLDS
AROUND THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AMBIENT THERMAL TROUGHING HANGS FIRM
OVER THE WATERS...FAVORING A TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS. AIRMASS ON ALL GUIDANCE IS PLENTY COLD...WITH H8
TEMPS AVERAGING -17C...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY AS THERE IS
SOME SNEAKY POTENTIAL WITH THIS ONE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE THINGS
MAY GET A LITTLE MORE QUIET AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY WARMER TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND AS A LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED BY MOST GUIDANCE
TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
SNOW ARRIVES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LASTING THRU EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN INDY AND LOUISVILLE WILL MOVE NE...REACHING
TOLEDO BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND NE NY STATE BY EVENING. SNOW ALONG
THE N AND NW FLANK OF THE LOW WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
VSBYS/CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER TO IFR...AND WILL PROBABLY BE LIFR
AT TIMES UP UNTIL SNOW DIMINISHES TOWARD 18Z. LIGHTER SHSN WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
NE-ERLY WINDS THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST...BACKING A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AT APN...WITH SOME BLSN ISSUES.
WIND BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 411 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WINTER STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE MOST COMMON
ALTHOUGH FEW GUSTS REACHING GALE FORCE ON LAKE HURON ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WINDS BACK NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ016>036-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ008-015.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345>347.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BA
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...BA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1142 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES CONTINUED TO FALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONGER LAKE SNOW BAND NOW
EVIDENT JUST EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS MOVING WEST. WE DON`T PLAN ON
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE LAKE SNOW ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
AT THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE SHEAR EXISTS IN THE SURFACE TO 850MB
LAYER...WITH SURFACE/925MB WINDS NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AND THE
850MB FLOW EASTERLY. THIS IS NOT OUR TYPICAL SET UP FOR LES AND AT
THIS POINT...THE PLUMES ARE DOMINATED BY THE 850MB FLOW.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY TO A WARNING.
WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE AFFECTS OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SHARPENING AND PRESSURE RISE MINIMUM OR SOME WEAK
FALLS OCCURRING ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. WEAK RETURNS ARE ALSO
EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS IN LINE WITH THE NAM. AS THIS LARGER SCALE
LIFT INCREASES OVERNIGHT...WE EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOR THE LAKE SNOW BANDS TO
INCREASE AS WELL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST DATA AND
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER AN ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN PORTS/COASTAL
LAKE/CARLTON COUNTY AREAS INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING
AS WE WILL BE UNDER THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE EASTERLY 850MB
FLOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LIGHT...WITH
LUTSEN/SILVER BAY REPORTING AN INCH AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...AND
DULUTH ONLY A TENTH OR TWO AS OF MID EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
AT 330 PM...IT WAS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS.
THE EXCEPTION WAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHERE
AN INCH OF SNOW FELL THIS AFTERNOON IN COASTAL LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AT
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO THE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF INDICATE A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE...WITH SEVERAL WAVES
IN THE LINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL SWIRLS AND CONSIDERABLE
VARIABILITY TO THE LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AT ROCK OF AGES CONTINUED ON ONE SIDE OF THIS BAND...WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT DEVILS ISLAND ON THE OTHER SIDE.
WINDS WILL OVERWHELMINGLY BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE OTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
RESULT WILL BE A PHASING OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. OVERALL LOOKING FOR AN INCH OR TWO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ON SUNDAY.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WE
COULD HAVE HANDLED THIS EVENT IN A COUPLE WAYS REGARDING HEADLINES
BUT AFTER EXTENSIVE DISCUSSION...WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE PERIOD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...RATHER THAN
HAVING A LARGE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING OUT FOR 5 PERIODS...WITH
GENERALLY ADVISORY TYPE SNOW FOR MOST OF THE PERIODS. THINK THERE
IS A FAIR CHANCE WE MAY NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR MONDAY.
BUT FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT TRANSITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL BANDS...SWIRLS AND CONVERGENCE BANDS...AND THE
RESULT SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ADVISORY TYPE SNOW.
WE ALSO COULD HAVE ISSUED THE ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR MONDAY...BUT FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE...DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT FOR NOW. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A
POTENTIAL WARNING ON MONDAY WOULD BE THE GOGEBIC RANGE. WE DO
AGREE THAT ADDED UP OVER 4-5 PERIODS...THE AMOUNTS COULD BE
IMPRESSIVE...SOME ON THE ORDER OF A FOOT OR MORE IN THE GOGEBIC
RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
FIRST CONCERN IN EXTENDED IS ON LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECM/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE H85-H50 TROUGH AXIS PASSES
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BRINGING A STRONG
PUSH OF CAA WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BACKING OUT OF THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT...LAPSE
RATES/INVERSION HTS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE MONDAY DUE TO THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD AIR. HAVE INCREASED QPF/SN AMOUNTS MONDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE HIGHER INSTABILITY.
FOCUS TURNS TO ELONGATED VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECM/GFS BOTH
SUGGEST THE DIGGING WAVE...WITH SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT...SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. CURRENT TIMING
WOULD FAVOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF TIMING SLOWS...ITS POSSIBLE THE COLD FRONT/LIGHT
SNOW HOLD OFF UNTIL CHRISTMAS DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED IFR...COVERED MUCH
OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. SNOW CONTINUED AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR...WITH SOME FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE AN INVERTED TROUGH TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION AND CAUSE LIGHT SNOW TO EXPAND ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING AROUND THE LAKE.
MVFR AND SOME IFR VSBYS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...LASTING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 8 13 -8 1 / 90 90 70 20
INL -9 2 -20 -5 / 40 50 20 10
BRD 4 11 -13 -2 / 70 90 50 10
HYR 11 21 1 6 / 60 90 80 70
ASX 11 21 9 9 / 80 90 90 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ001>004.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
842 PM MST MON DEC 23 2013
.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MT UNTIL
13 UTC. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION INCREASING OVER CENTRAL
MT AS OF 0330 UTC...AND NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BATCH OF
MOISTURE WILL CROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC. A WARM
LAYER ALOFT IS SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO MELT HYDROMETEORS...AND THEN ALLOW REFREEZE AT THE GROUND. THE
NEAR-SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR EVEN HIGHER THAN 32 F
IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT THE ROAD AND SIDEWALK SURFACES LOOK
TO STAY BELOW FREEZING...SO EVEN IF LIQUID REACHES THE SURFACE IT
WILL END UP FREEZING ON CONTACT. THE SREF OUTPUT FROM BOTH 15 AND
21 UTC LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO WITH 50-70 PERCENT CHANCES
OF FREEZING RAIN /OR RAIN...WHICH IMPLIES FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE
STATE OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURES/. THE PRECIPITATION-TYPE ALGORITHM
FROM NUMEROUS RECENT HRRR RUNS ALSO STRONGLY SUPPORTS THIS IDEA.
THE ONLY PLACE WHERE THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM AIR ALOFT IS UNCERTAIN
IS OVER FALLON COUNTY...WHERE SLEET OR A MIX TYPES IS POSSIBLE IF
YOU TAKE GUIDANCE AT FACE VALUE. STILL...THERE WAS ENOUGH RISK TO
INCLUDE THEM IN THE ADVISORY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING
RAIN ARE RELATIVELY LOWER THAN FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF BAKER.
FINALLY...WE DID MAKE SOME FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MT TOO...NAMELY TO DECREASE POPS IN MANY PLACES IN RESPECT TO THE
LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 0.40
INCHES THOUGH...DESERVING OF SOME CHANCE-STYLE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR
PLACES LIKE BILLINGS. WE LEFT THE WIND ADVISORY UP FOR LIVINGSTON
AND NYE AS WELL AS BIG TIMBER SINCE MID-EVENING OBSERVATIONS HAVE
WINDS STILL NEAR CRITERIA AT THE LIVINGSTON AIRPORT. SCHULTZ
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...
WARMER AIR PUSHING EAST GRADUALLY AS BILLINGS HAS WARMED UP TO 30
DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIVINGSTON HAS RISEN TO 40 DEGREES.
THE EAST WAS STILL STUCK IN THE ARCTIC HOWEVER WITH MILES CITY AT
ZERO AND BAKER WITH 5 DEGREES. MODELS ADVANCE THE WARMER AIR EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING...SO EXPECT RISING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOW
FORECAST VERY TRICKY AS LOWS WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING. BLOWING
SNOW HAS BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED.
APPEARS TO BE MORE DRIFTING THAN BLOWING AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO WARM...THE THREAT WILL SUBSIDE. WILL CANCEL THE BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY.
WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY STRONG AT LIVINGSTON WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS
TIGHTENING...SO EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP TONIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THIS WILL DECREASE
WINDS AT LIVINGSTON. WINDS HAVE NOT HIT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BIG
TIMBER YET...BUT HAVE GOTTEN CLOSE. GRADIENT WILL ACTUALLY FAVOR
BIG TIMBER ONCE THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT SO
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP. MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE LIVINGSTON
ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT AS WINDS TYPICALLY DECREASE BEHIND A
FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL LET THE EVENING AND MIDNIGHT SHIFT
MONITOR THAT. WILL LEAVE WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN PLACE.
A STRONG WAVE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING INTO EASTERN
OREGON. VERY STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. MODELS
LIMIT QPF OVER CENTRAL ZONES DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT FEEL
FORCING WILL OVERPOWER THE DOWNSLOPE AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. RAISED
POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE EAST
OF BILLINGS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE MAY POSE A
PROBLEM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE WAVE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EAST TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY. RAISED
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS AND WENT WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES THERE.
THE WAVE SHIFTS OUT EARLY TUESDAY AND LEAVES BEHIND NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A DRYING TREND. SHORTWAVE ENERGY GETS DEFLECTED EASTWARD
AND WILL LEAVE THE AREA DRY. GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT OVER THE WEST
AND WILL KEEP WINDS UP FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON.
TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...A FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA COMBINED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IDAHO WILL SET UP LEE-SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS OUR AREA RESULTING IN CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT AND A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. DYNAMICS ARE DECENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS SHOW A
GOOD FRONTOGENESIS BAND ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND -12C TO -20C SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED SATURDAY HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES ALONG WITH SUNDAY MORNING LOWS AND THESE MAY NEED
TO GO LOWER IN THE FUTURE. LEE-SIDE TROUGHING RETURNS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A RETURN TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HOOLEY
&&
.AVIATION...
A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH
MAY AFFECT KMLS BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. BT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/038 017/029 017/040 027/045 026/036 019/024 014/032
51/N 01/B 10/N 00/N 03/J 32/J 11/B
LVM 032/034 021/032 017/041 025/045 023/035 016/025 015/029
42/S 01/N 10/N 00/N 13/J 33/J 11/B
HDN 024/037 013/028 014/038 023/044 022/034 014/022 007/030
62/S 01/B 10/N 00/U 03/J 32/J 11/B
MLS 015/035 012/024 008/031 020/039 021/031 011/015 901/027
93/S 01/B 10/B 00/B 13/J 32/J 11/B
4BQ 025/036 012/026 009/034 020/043 021/033 012/019 001/027
95/S 11/B 10/B 00/U 03/J 32/J 11/B
BHK 015/032 011/022 001/029 019/038 020/029 007/011 903/025
95/S 11/B 10/B 00/B 13/J 21/E 11/B
SHR 022/036 012/029 012/038 021/045 021/036 015/022 008/031
62/S 01/B 10/B 00/U 03/J 42/J 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
ZONES 30>33-36-37.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
41-65-66.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
1223 PM PST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...DRY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NEVADA
FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...UPDATED TEMPERATURE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, RAISING
MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO CURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S. BAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 329 AM /
SYNOPSIS...LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
ELKO COUNTY TODAY POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN FLURRIES. BIG PICTURE
WISE...WIDESPREAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY RIDGING.
EXPECTING INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL BRING
THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BACK. OTHER THAN THE COLD SNAP OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA...GENERALLY EXPECTING MILD CONDITIONS FOR
CHRISTMAS AND THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELKO
CONTINUES TO DEPICT SATURATION OR NEAR SATURATION...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS PINGS INTO NEAR 90 PERCENT RH FROM 700 MB
TO 500 MB OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF LKN THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND RUC TAKE IT ONE STEP FURTHER BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND JACKPOT...BUT MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE UNEVENTFUL. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXTENSIVE MELTING
THAT OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCOURSE OVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. KEPT
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS.
LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. QUIET WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THE HOLIDAY WEEK BEGINS WITH A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES A WEAK TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS MOISTURE STAVED AND
POSITIVELY TILTED...NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES CONTINUING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS BENEATH THIS RIDGE INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE MAINLY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN SNOW COVER AREAS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT. RECOVERY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...SO EXPECT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MANY
VALLEY AREAS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WILL BREAKDOWN
DURING FRIDAY ALLOWING A TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SOME MOISTURE FOR MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RAPID
SNOWMELT SATURDAY...FOG AND LOW CIGS BECOMES THE CONCERN FOR MAINLY
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE NEW AVIATION
PACKAGE PLAN TO MENTION VCFG AT KWMC/KEKO/KELY THIS MORNING AND A
COMBINATION OF MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. KTPH SHOULD BE IN
BETTER SHAPE WITH SKC CONDITIONS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
329 AM PST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
ELKO COUNTY TODAY POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN FLURRIES. BIG PICTURE
WISE...WIDESPREAD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY RIDGING.
EXPECTING INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP OVER THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL BRING
THE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BACK. OTHER THAN THE COLD SNAP OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA...GENERALLY EXPECTING MILD CONDITIONS FOR
CHRISTMAS AND THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PROGGED SOUNDING FOR ELKO
CONTINUES TO DEPICT SATURATION OR NEAR SATURATION...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT SNOW MELT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS PINGS INTO NEAR 90 PERCENT RH FROM 700 MB
TO 500 MB OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF LKN THROUGH 18Z TODAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM AND RUC TAKE IT ONE STEP FURTHER BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND JACKPOT...BUT MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE UNEVENTFUL. IN THE WAKE OF THE EXTENSIVE MELTING
THAT OCCURRED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCOURSE OVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. KEPT
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. QUIET WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THE HOLIDAY WEEK BEGINS WITH A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE WEEK CONTINUES A WEAK TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS MOISTURE STAVED AND
POSITIVELY TILTED...NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
FOLLOWING THIS TROUGH...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
BUILD INTO THE WESTERN STATES CONTINUING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS BENEATH THIS RIDGE INDICATE A STRONG INVERSION WILL
BE IN PLACE MAINLY ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY IN SNOW COVER AREAS WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AT NIGHT. RECOVERY DURING THE
DAY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...SO EXPECT
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN MANY
VALLEY AREAS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WILL BREAKDOWN
DURING FRIDAY ALLOWING A TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
SOME MOISTURE FOR MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RAPID
SNOWMELT SATURDAY...FOG AND LOW CIGS BECOMES THE CONCERN FOR MAINLY
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. WITH THE NEW AVIATION
PACKAGE PLAN TO MENTION VCFG AT KWMC/KEKO/KELY THIS MORNING AND A
COMBINATION OF MVFR/VFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. KTPH SHOULD BE IN
BETTER SHAPE WITH SKC CONDITIONS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/89/89
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE AREA BRING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM SUN UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A FRZG RAIN ADVSY FOR OUR FAR
NRN ZNS TIL 12Z. SFC/MESO-NET OBS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY DOWNWARD
TEMP/DEW PT TREND THE LAST FEW HRS...AS LOW-LVL COLD AIR CONTS TO
BLEED SWD ATTM. READINGS ARE DOWN TO 31-32F N/W OF A KPEO-KSYR-
KRME LN...AND WE SUSPECT THEY`LL STAY ABT WHERE THEY ARE THE NEXT
3-6 HRS. GIVEN RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM...WE FELT AN ADVSY WAS OUR
BEST BET.
TWDS DAYBREAK (10-12Z)...AS THE MAIN SFC WV APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...BLYR WAA SHOULD INCREASE...CAUSING THE LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZN
TO LIKELY BEGIN LIFTING NWD AGN. AS THIS OCCURS...WE SHOULD SEE
THE SHALLOW COLD AMS GET ERODED FROM S TO N...WITH -FZRA GETTING
LESS WIDESPREAD.
OUTSIDE OF MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMP/DEW PT/WX GRIDS...WE JUST
MADE OTHER SLIGHT TWEAKS ATTM.
PREV DISC... 740 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM FORECAST AS FRONT WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF NORTHEAST MOVING CYCLONE. AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT
ARE FLIRTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S, WITH FREEZING
RAIN BECOMING A FACTOR.
LATEST NAM12 925MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
REASONABLY WELL, AND WE USED THIS AS OUR BASIS FOR MOVING THE FRONT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, BELIEVE THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR THE COLD AIR TO POUR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF STEUBEN COUNTY, UP THROUGH WESTERN SENECA COUNTY, BETWEEN 3Z
AND 8Z. THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT
WINDOW IN THIS AREA.
THEREAFTER THE WARM AIR COMES THROUGH ON A TRUCK...DRIVEN BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND PUSHING SURFACE TEMPS THROUGH THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER PROBLEM OF THE EVENING IS OBVIOUSLY QPF. HAVE REWORKED
THE 0Z-6Z QPF GRIDS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, AND STAYED PRETTY
MUCH IN LINE WITH HPC FOR 6Z-12Z. THE GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
MAP THE LAST 24 HOURS, AT ONE TIME BEING AN OUTLIER ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF QPF, AND NOW BEING ON THE LOW SIDE. ITS INCONSISTENCY
GIVES ME LITTLE CONFIDENCE, SO I WEIGHTED IT LOW COMPARED TO THE
NEW NAM12, HRRR, AND RAP PROJECTIONS. IN TOTAL, THE NET EFFECT WAS
A DECREASE IN STORM TOTAL QPF OF ABOUT 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES. THIS
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD COMPARED WITH UPSTREAM RADAR DEPICTION.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING QPF SCENARIO.
EARLIER DISC... 3 PM UPDATE... COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR THE FCST AS
VERY WRM AIR STREAMS NEWRD TNGT LOADED WITH MOISTURE.
MEANWHILE...CONFLUENT UPR FLOW TRIES TO BLD THE LL COLD OVER NRN
NY WITH SFC RDGG. SOME OF THAT COLDER AIR ALREADY HAS AFFECTED THE
FAR NRN ZONES AND SYR DROPPED 7F IN THE PAST HR. LOOKS LIKE A
CLOSE CALL BUT THAT THE BLO FRZG AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES ZONES THRU TNGT...BEFORE BEING PUSHED NWRD.
OTR ISSUE IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT. MODELS CONT TO KEEP THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN GNRLY NORTH OF THE SUSQ BASIN...AND JUST
TOUCHING THE FINGER LAKES. 12 HR QPF LOOS TO BE UNDER 2 INCHES BUT
WITH SNOW MELT...SOME FCST PTS WILL HIT A MINOR FLOOD STAGE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. HAVE XTNDD THE CVRG OF THE WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
NY COUNTIES XCPT SULLIVAN...AND TWO NRN PA COUNTIES. SEE HYDRO
DISC FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOOD PTNL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO REAL BRK IN THE SHRT TERM AS A GOOD SLUG OF PCPN PASSES WITH A
SFC TROF/COLD FNT ON SUNDAY. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PCPN WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE SO THERE WILL HOPEFULLY LTL XTRA EFFECT ON THE RVRS.
FNT STALLS AGAIN...THIS TIME EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HWVR...THERE
IS NO COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF AND AS A WV MVES UP THE MON...MSTLY
RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE ERN ZONES WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW LATE AS
THE COLD AIR FNLY BEGINS TO ARRIVE. WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AND INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE LATE MON. WILL WORRY ABT
THAT LTR.
UPR TROF SETTLES IN WITH SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LE SNOWS AS H8
TEMPS APRCH -20C LATE IN THE DAY. FLOW IS RATHER SHEARED EARLY
ON...BUT MAY ALIGN LATE IN THE PD INCRSG ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR. COLDER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL. COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR.
MOSTLY IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN CENTRAL NY TUES NGT GETS SHUT OFF AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE EAST COAST WED AND WED NGT. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
SINKS SE INTO THE AREA LATE THU AND THU NGT WITH A SFC COLD FRONT.
LAKE EFFECT BEHIND IT FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WEATHER FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A WARM
FRONT IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.AROUND
10Z...THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH. WITH THAT BEING SAID TAF
SITES SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS. TAFS SITES
NORTH OF THIS FRONT ARE LOOKING AT MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND VISBYS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT KELM AND KBGM WILL REMAIN AT
FUEL ALTERNATE CIGS. THE CIGS AT THESE SITES MAY FALL TO AROUND
500 FT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND LEFT OUT OF TAF AS THEY WILL BE
ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE WARM FRONT.
CIGS AT SITES KRME... KSYR... AND KITH WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
MID MORNING AS THE FRONT REMAINS WELL TO SOUTH. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY AT KRME AND KSYR AS COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY
FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO END AFTER SUNRISE AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY OVER
THE REGION. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/-SHSN.
TUE AND WED...VFR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN -SHSN EARLY.
THU...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
9 PM UPDATE...
SEVERAL POINTS ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LAKELAND OF NINE MILE CREEK EVEN ECLIPSING
MODERATE STAGE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MORE DECIDEDLY NORTHWEST OF
MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...YET DEGREE OF
SNOWMELT IN LAST 12-24 HOURS HAS ALSO BEEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
SNOWMELT AND THE ADDITIONAL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO INCH-
AND-A-QUARTER OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA /MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN TIER
PA/ WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR RIVERS. RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS ARE CRUNCHING UPDATED FORECASTS BASED ON OBSERVED AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOWMELT AND CURRENT STAGES. WE
ANTICIPATE MAKING SOME WARNING DECISIONS LATER THIS EVENING FOR
SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER POINTS...JOINING LAKELAND WITH RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. STILL EXPECTING ACTION STAGE TO SOMEWHERE INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE FOR VAST MAJORITY OF AFFECTED RIVER POINTS. MODERATE
STAGES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY ONE OR TWO SITES. SMALL STREAM
AND STORM DRAIN TROUBLES STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1253 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND BRING RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THRU THE AREA BRING DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM SUN UPDATE... WE`VE ISSUED A FRZG RAIN ADVSY FOR OUR FAR
NRN ZNS TIL 12Z. SFC/MESO-NET OBS HAVE SHOWN A STEADY DOWNWARD
TEMP/DEW PT TREND THE LAST FEW HRS...AS LOW-LVL COLD AIR CONTS TO
BLEED SWD ATTM. READINGS ARE DOWN TO 31-32F N/W OF A KPEO-KSYR-
KRME LN...AND WE SUSPECT THEY`LL STAY ABT WHERE THEY ARE THE NEXT
3-6 HRS. GIVEN RADAR COVERAGE UPSTREAM...WE FELT AN ADVSY WAS OUR
BEST BET.
TWDS DAYBREAK (10-12Z)...AS THE MAIN SFC WV APPROACHES FROM THE
SW...BLYR WAA SHOULD INCREASE...CAUSING THE LOW-LVL BAROCLINIC ZN
TO LIKELY BEGIN LIFTING NWD AGN. AS THIS OCCURS...WE SHOULD SEE
THE SHALLOW COLD AMS GET ERODED FROM S TO N...WITH -FZRA GETTING
LESS WIDESPREAD.
OUTSIDE OF MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMP/DEW PT/WX GRIDS...WE JUST
MADE OTHER SLIGHT TWEAKS ATTM.
PREV DISC... 740 PM UPDATE...
CHALLENGING NEAR TERM FORECAST AS FRONT WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF NORTHEAST MOVING CYCLONE. AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT
ARE FLIRTING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S, WITH FREEZING
RAIN BECOMING A FACTOR.
LATEST NAM12 925MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING
REASONABLY WELL, AND WE USED THIS AS OUR BASIS FOR MOVING THE FRONT
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS, BELIEVE THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR THE COLD AIR TO POUR INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF STEUBEN COUNTY, UP THROUGH WESTERN SENECA COUNTY, BETWEEN 3Z
AND 8Z. THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT
WINDOW IN THIS AREA.
THEREAFTER THE WARM AIR COMES THROUGH ON A TRUCK...DRIVEN BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND PUSHING SURFACE TEMPS THROUGH THE
40S AND 50S ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE OTHER PROBLEM OF THE EVENING IS OBVIOUSLY QPF. HAVE REWORKED
THE 0Z-6Z QPF GRIDS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE, AND STAYED PRETTY
MUCH IN LINE WITH HPC FOR 6Z-12Z. THE GFS HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
MAP THE LAST 24 HOURS, AT ONE TIME BEING AN OUTLIER ON THE HIGH
SIDE OF QPF, AND NOW BEING ON THE LOW SIDE. ITS INCONSISTENCY
GIVES ME LITTLE CONFIDENCE, SO I WEIGHTED IT LOW COMPARED TO THE
NEW NAM12, HRRR, AND RAP PROJECTIONS. IN TOTAL, THE NET EFFECT WAS
A DECREASE IN STORM TOTAL QPF OF ABOUT 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES. THIS
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD COMPARED WITH UPSTREAM RADAR DEPICTION.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING QPF SCENARIO.
EARLIER DISC... 3 PM UPDATE... COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR THE FCST AS
VERY WRM AIR STREAMS NEWRD TNGT LOADED WITH MOISTURE.
MEANWHILE...CONFLUENT UPR FLOW TRIES TO BLD THE LL COLD OVER NRN
NY WITH SFC RDGG. SOME OF THAT COLDER AIR ALREADY HAS AFFECTED THE
FAR NRN ZONES AND SYR DROPPED 7F IN THE PAST HR. LOOKS LIKE A
CLOSE CALL BUT THAT THE BLO FRZG AIR WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES ZONES THRU TNGT...BEFORE BEING PUSHED NWRD.
OTR ISSUE IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT. MODELS CONT TO KEEP THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN GNRLY NORTH OF THE SUSQ BASIN...AND JUST
TOUCHING THE FINGER LAKES. 12 HR QPF LOOS TO BE UNDER 2 INCHES BUT
WITH SNOW MELT...SOME FCST PTS WILL HIT A MINOR FLOOD STAGE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. HAVE XTNDD THE CVRG OF THE WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL
NY COUNTIES XCPT SULLIVAN...AND TWO NRN PA COUNTIES. SEE HYDRO
DISC FOR DETAILS ON THE FLOOD PTNL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO REAL BRK IN THE SHRT TERM AS A GOOD SLUG OF PCPN PASSES WITH A
SFC TROF/COLD FNT ON SUNDAY. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE PCPN WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE SO THERE WILL HOPEFULLY LTL XTRA EFFECT ON THE RVRS.
FNT STALLS AGAIN...THIS TIME EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HWVR...THERE
IS NO COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF AND AS A WV MVES UP THE MON...MSTLY
RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE ERN ZONES WITH PERHAPS SOME SNOW LATE AS
THE COLD AIR FNLY BEGINS TO ARRIVE. WLD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
AND INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE LATE MON. WILL WORRY ABT
THAT LTR.
UPR TROF SETTLES IN WITH SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LE SNOWS AS H8
TEMPS APRCH -20C LATE IN THE DAY. FLOW IS RATHER SHEARED EARLY
ON...BUT MAY ALIGN LATE IN THE PD INCRSG ACTIVITY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR. COLDER AND DRIER
THAN NORMAL. COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR.
MOSTLY IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IN CENTRAL NY TUES NGT GETS SHUT OFF AS A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SITS OVER THE EAST COAST WED AND WED NGT. A DIGGING SHORT WAVE
SINKS SE INTO THE AREA LATE THU AND THU NGT WITH A SFC COLD FRONT.
LAKE EFFECT BEHIND IT FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WITH SHALLOW
SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIPPING SOUTH TO ABOUT KELM-KBGM AND THUS LOW
CIGS ALONG AND NORTH OF THERE. WAVES OF RAIN ALSO PASSING ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MOIST SSW WIND AT KAVP ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF IFR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LLWS DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
A 50-60 KT JET PASSES AT ABOUT 2 KFT AGL. THE JET DECREASING MID
MORNING ONWARD...BUT RESTRICTIONS FROM IFR CIGS AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL MVFR OR WORSE VIS AS WAVES OF RAIN CONTINUE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT BEGINS TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA AND WAVE ALOFT REMOVES DEEPER MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/-SHSN.
TUE AND WED...VFR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN -SHSN EARLY.
THU...VFR.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
9 PM UPDATE...
SEVERAL POINTS ARE FORECAST TO GET INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT...AND LAKELAND OF NINE MILE CREEK EVEN ECLIPSING
MODERATE STAGE. MODEL CONSENSUS IS MORE DECIDEDLY NORTHWEST OF
MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS...YET DEGREE OF
SNOWMELT IN LAST 12-24 HOURS HAS ALSO BEEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
SNOWMELT AND THE ADDITIONAL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO INCH-
AND-A-QUARTER OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA /MOST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND INTO NORTHERN TIER
PA/ WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES FOR RIVERS. RIVER FORECAST
CENTERS ARE CRUNCHING UPDATED FORECASTS BASED ON OBSERVED AND
EXPECTED RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOWMELT AND CURRENT STAGES. WE
ANTICIPATE MAKING SOME WARNING DECISIONS LATER THIS EVENING FOR
SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER POINTS...JOINING LAKELAND WITH RIVER FLOOD
WARNING. STILL EXPECTING ACTION STAGE TO SOMEWHERE INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE FOR VAST MAJORITY OF AFFECTED RIVER POINTS. MODERATE
STAGES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY ONE OR TWO SITES. SMALL STREAM
AND STORM DRAIN TROUBLES STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NY
COUNTIES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-
036-037-044>046-055>057.
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
015>018.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1027 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY...MAINTAINING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...HAVING PUSHED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY ON DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THE POST COLD
FRONTAL SENSIBLE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WILL EXPERIENCE A WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE VEERING TO THE NW-N AT 5 TO 15 MPH...COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. LATEST PROGS CONTINUE
WITH POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYLIGHT TUESDAY B4 FINALLY BEING PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER S/W TROF. OVERNITE LOWS HAVE
BEEN TWEAKED...WITH MINS OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...A DRIER COLUMN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME AND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE
H85-H5 LAYER. THUS THE TREND FOR TUESDAY IS CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL. COLDER
AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S) WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
UNEVENTFUL WITH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTING A MODEST
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND MODEST RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL ONLY SERVE TO RESET ANY TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AS THE COLD AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT LINGERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VIA AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THIS BRIEF WARMUP IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY. THE TRENDS ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT AND THE CONSOLATION IS THAT THE WILD TEMPERATURE
SWINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW WEEKS ARE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY A THING OF THE PAST.
FINALLY THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SKIRTS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED. REGARDLESS OF THE FORCING
MECHANISMS...POPS REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SEA FOG WILL IMPROVE AND/OR SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
KCRE/KMYR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STILL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO LIGHTNING IS BEING
DETECTED THUS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. BRIEF GUSTY
W WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TO RE-DEVELOP AT
KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND FRONT CIGS AT
KFLO/KMYR SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT TIMES AROUND 06Z.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF POST FRONTAL IFR OR LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR THESE CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR.
MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NW-N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. SCEC HAS REPLACED THE SCA FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS...AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 7 AM TUESDAY.
SW-WSW AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS EVENING...WILL VEER TO THE NW
AROUND 15 KT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
FURTHER VEER TO THE NORTH AT 10-20 KT DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE
HOURS. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR WIND PROGS ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY A 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD SSE
BORDERLINE SWELL...AND A 10 SECOND PERIOD SE GROUND SWELL.
COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...AND
4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. THE 7 FOOTERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AREAL COVERAGE OF SEA FOG
HAS DECREASED...AND WILL FURTHER DECREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE POST FRONTAL LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...N TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE WIND WILL VEER TO
THE NE DURING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO
THE VICINITY. THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN A RANGE OF SEAS
THAT WILL BE FETCH LIMITED NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE MOST PART SEAS
WILL APPROACH 5 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE CENTRAL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST IS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. FOR
THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE OF ROGUE GUSTS
OVER 15 POSSIBLE. AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WINDS DROP BACK DOWN TO 10-15
KNOTS...AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SPEED TRENDS
WITH 2-4 FEET THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 3-5 FEET FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
810 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY...MAINTAINING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...ROUGHLY...THE SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORFOLK VA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS LUMBERTON NC TO COLUMBIA SC. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THE POST COLD FRONTAL WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
FA WILL EXPERIENCE...WIND CHANGE TO THE NW-N...COLD AIR ADVECTION
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO DAYLIGHT TUESDAY B4 FINALLY
BEING PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND OFFSHORE FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
S/W TROF. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING DUE TO VERY WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE DAYS INSOLATION OVER-WITH THE THREAT FOR
THUNDER WILL ONLY CONTINUE THRU MIDNIGHT. ONLY MASSAGED THE
OVERNITE LOWS...WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD
AS IT IS APPROACHES RALEIGH BUT IS IT STILL LAGS A BIT TO THE
SOUTH. A POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. THE 18Z UTC RUC IS SHOWING THE 850 LOW LEVEL JET MAX
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OUT
OF THE AREA BY 22 UTC. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WHAT IS ENHANCING
THE LOW TOP CONVECTION IN INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.
SEA FOG IS NOW BREAKING UP ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR BEFORE BECOMING A NONE FACTOR.
MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT TO THE COAST BY 7 PM BUT THE
MODELS MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THEN SLOWLY TAPER THE
RAIN OFF OVERNIGHT. QPF VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...A DRIER COLUMN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME AND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE
H85-H5 LAYER. THUS THE TREND FOR TUESDAY IS CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL. COLDER
AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S) WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
UNEVENTFUL WITH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTING A MODEST
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND MODEST RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL ONLY SERVE TO RESET ANY TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AS THE COLD AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT LINGERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VIA AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THIS BRIEF WARMUP IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY. THE TRENDS ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT AND THE CONSOLATION IS THAT THE WILD TEMPERATURE
SWINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW WEEKS ARE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY A THING OF THE PAST.
FINALLY THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SKIRTS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED. REGARDLESS OF THE FORCING
MECHANISMS...POPS REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SEA FOG WILL IMPROVE AND/OR SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
KCRE/KMYR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STILL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO LIGHTNING IS BEING
DETECTED THUS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. BRIEF GUSTY
W WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TO RE-DEVELOP AT
KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND FRONT CIGS AT
KFLO/KMYR SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT TIMES AROUND 06Z.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF POST FRONTAL IFR OR LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR THESE CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR.
MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NW-N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM MONDAY...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. SCEC HAS REPLACED THE SCA FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS...AND IS ALSO IN EFFECT THRU 7 AM TUESDAY.
SW AROUND 15 KT THIS EVENING...WILL VEER TO THE NW AROUND 15 KT
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND FURTHER VEER TO
THE NORTH AT 10-20 KT BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
WIND PROGS ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
GOVERNED BY A 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD SSE BORDERLINE SWELL...AND A 10
SECOND PERIOD SE GROUND SWELL. COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND
DRIVEN WAVES...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT FOR
THE ILM SC WATERS...AND 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. THE 7
FOOTERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AREAL
COVERAGE OF SEA FOG HAS DECREASED...AND WILL FURTHER DECREASE
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ONCE THE POST FRONTAL LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 PM AS IT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND ADVECT TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT FOR THE WATERS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS IS EXPECTED AFTER 7 PM AND
WITH THIS FRONT A GOOD PUSH OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT 8 PM SOUTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET AND 2 AM FOR THE WATERS TO THE NORTH. SEAS SHOULD RELAX
LATE AND WILL BEGIN AT 4 TO 6 FEET BUT WILL SETTLE OUT TO A RANGE
OF 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 5 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...N TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE WIND WILL VEER TO
THE NE DURING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO
THE VICINITY. THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN A RANGE OF SEAS
THAT WILL BE FETCH LIMITED NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE MOST PART SEAS
WILL APPROACH 5 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE CENTRAL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST IS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. FOR
THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE OF ROGUE GUSTS
OVER 15 POSSIBLE. AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WINDS DROP BACK DOWN TO 10-15
KNOTS...AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SPEED TRENDS
WITH 2-4 FEET THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 3-5 FEET FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH/DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
636 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY...MAINTAINING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD
AS IT IS APPROACHES RALEIGH BUT IS IT STILL LAGS A BIT TO THE
SOUTH. A POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH. THE 18Z UTC RUC IS SHOWING THE 850 LOW LEVEL JET MAX
CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT NORTH OUT
OF THE AREA BY 22 UTC. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE WHAT IS ENHANCING
THE LOW TOP CONVECTION IN INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA.
SEA FOG IS NOW BREAKING UP ALONG THE GEORGETOWN COAST AND WILL
LINGER FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR BEFORE BECOMING A NONE FACTOR.
MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FRONT TO THE COAST BY 7 PM BUT THE
MODELS MAINTAIN A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THEN SLOWLY TAPER THE
RAIN OFF OVERNIGHT. QPF VALUES APPEAR TO BE LESS THAN A HALF OF AN
INCH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...A DRIER COLUMN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME AND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE
H85-H5 LAYER. THUS THE TREND FOR TUESDAY IS CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL. COLDER
AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S) WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
UNEVENTFUL WITH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTING A MODEST
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND MODEST RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL ONLY SERVE TO RESET ANY TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AS THE COLD AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT LINGERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VIA AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THIS BRIEF WARMUP IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY. THE TRENDS ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT AND THE CONSOLATION IS THAT THE WILD TEMPERATURE
SWINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW WEEKS ARE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY A THING OF THE PAST.
FINALLY THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SKIRTS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED. REGARDLESS OF THE FORCING
MECHANISMS...POPS REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...AN INITIAL COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. LIFR
CONDITIONS IN SEA FOG WILL IMPROVE AND/OR SHIFT OFFSHORE OF
KCRE/KMYR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STILL THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MOVING EAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NO LIGHTNING IS BEING
DETECTED THUS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW. BRIEF GUSTY
W WINDS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.
WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TO RE-DEVELOP AT
KFLO/KLBT THIS EVENING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND FRONT CIGS AT
KFLO/KMYR SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS COULD FLIRT WITH IFR AT TIMES AROUND 06Z.
THERE SEEMS TO BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF POST FRONTAL IFR OR LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...AND IT MAY
TAKE UNTIL SUNRISE FOR THESE CIGS TO RISE TO MVFR.
MORNING MVFR CIGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE NW-N.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 PM AS IT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND ADVECT TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT FOR THE WATERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS IS EXPECTED AFTER 7 PM AND
WITH THIS FRONT A GOOD PUSH OF OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AND THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AT 8 PM SOUTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET AND 2 AM FOR THE WATERS TO THE NORTH. SEAS SHOULD RELAX
LATE AND WILL BEGIN AT 4 TO 6 FEET BUT WILL SETTLE OUT TO A RANGE
OF 2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND 5 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...N TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE WIND WILL VEER TO
THE NE DURING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO
THE VICINITY. THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN A RANGE OF SEAS
THAT WILL BE FETCH LIMITED NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE MOST PART SEAS
WILL APPROACH 5 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE CENTRAL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST IS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. FOR
THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE OF ROGUE GUSTS
OVER 15 POSSIBLE. AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WINDS DROP BACK DOWN TO 10-15
KNOTS...AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SPEED TRENDS
WITH 2-4 FEET THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 3-5 FEET FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ254-
256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
923 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO OUR
WEST THIS EVENING. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS IT
PIVOTS ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH AT MOST. GOOD
CAA WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL STAY UP
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH COOL NW FLOW.
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT THAT SHARP OF A DROP OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE FA. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED ANY SNOW SHOWER MENTION TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH RATHER STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WHICH TELECONNECTS TO ERN CONUS TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE GREAT LAKES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING
THE RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISE AHEAD OF IT WHICH PUSH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST...WILL ALLOW FOR
ITS REORGANIZATION AND REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST A BIT...WHICH
PROMISES A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE DETAILS...THURS WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE
OF A WEAK WAVE/COLD FRONT WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
ON THURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW MEANING LAKE-INDUCED FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
BE IN PLAY THUS DRY CONDITIONS THU AFTN THROUGH SAT. A LEADING WEAK
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH ITS DYNAMICS/MOISTURE...BUT SUNDAY/S
WAVE WILL BRING A SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN IN ITS WAKE. THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ON SUNDAY TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL
THREAT ON STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NWLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. BEYOND MONDAY...HINTS OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
THAT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOWS AND REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRIER THAN
NORMAL...AND AVERAGING OUT COLDER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON
THUR/FRI AND AGAIN MON.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAIRLY SOLID MVFR DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA...BUT AS
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...NOT
SURE HOW FAST THESE BREAKS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. IN
FACT...MANY OF THE HI RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND ARW-
WRF...ARE INDICATING SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A VCSH AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT
AND SOME TEMPO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE LATER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY...AND ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME OF THE CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA
HOWEVER EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL
MOVE INTO THE FA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE FA. LIMITED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR TWO. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON TUESDAY WITH COOL NW FLOW.
LIMITED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT THAT SHARP OF A DROP OFF LATER IN THE NIGHT
AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES ACROSS THE FA. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
A COUPLE MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIMITED ANY SNOW SHOWER MENTION TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH RATHER STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS WHICH TELECONNECTS TO ERN CONUS TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL
HEIGHTS/TEMPS IN THE GREAT LAKES. A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING
THE RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISE AHEAD OF IT WHICH PUSH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND WITH MODIFYING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL HAVE A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST...WILL ALLOW FOR
ITS REORGANIZATION AND REDEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE WEST A BIT...WHICH
PROMISES A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE DETAILS...THURS WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE
OF A WEAK WAVE/COLD FRONT WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
ON THURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE AREA BRINGS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW MEANING LAKE-INDUCED FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD NOT
BE IN PLAY THUS DRY CONDITIONS THU AFTN THROUGH SAT. A LEADING WEAK
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MORE POTENT WAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH ITS DYNAMICS/MOISTURE...BUT SUNDAY/S
WAVE WILL BRING A SHARP FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC
ORIGIN IN ITS WAKE. THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW ON SUNDAY TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL
THREAT ON STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH NWLY
FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. BEYOND MONDAY...HINTS OF ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
THAT MAY BRING LIGHT SNOWS AND REINFORCING COLD AIR FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRIER THAN
NORMAL...AND AVERAGING OUT COLDER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON
THUR/FRI AND AGAIN MON.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FAIRLY SOLID MVFR DECK IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA...BUT AS
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT...NOT
SURE HOW FAST THESE BREAKS WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. IN
FACT...MANY OF THE HI RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE RAP AND ARW-
WRF...ARE INDICATING SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.
WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR A VCSH AT ALL THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT
AND SOME TEMPO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE LATER
PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
702 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TODAY
GIVING A KICK TO A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING DRIER BUT NOTABLY
COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY TODAY HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. FOLLOWED SREF POP GUIDANCE STARTING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF A KCLE
TO KMFD LINE BY 15Z. BY 18Z WILL DROP FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO
CHANCE AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY AND HAVE USED THE HRRR WHICH IS
ABLE TO BEST GRAPHICALLY HANDLE MOVING THE TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. IN SHORT...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO RECOVER WITH THE MILD AIR LIFTING TO THE LAKESHORE AGAIN EARLY
WHILE THE WEST WILL REMAIN COOL. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE COOLER
AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH AS
IS.
MEDIA REMIND YOUR VIEWERS AND LISTENERS NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY MORNING MONDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
DOWN TO -7 TO -9 ON THE LAKE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR
LAKE EFFECT TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -12C OR SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SNOW BELT IN THE
MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
DROP TO -14C BY 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
(-20C) THANKFULLY DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. STILL
HOWEVER...-14C WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE AND
IN FACT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...DROPPING BACK TO LIKELY TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
COUNTERING THE -16C TEMPS ON THE LAKE. WILL DROP POPS THROUGH
LIKELY TO CHANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRUSHING
THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT A LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS SO WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS DROP AS
AN UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER
OF THE TWO. WILL FOLLOW WPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD GENERALLY BRINGING BACK A SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...DRYING IT OUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR TIFFIN OHIO IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD LAKE ERIE
WITH ITS WARM FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAIL EAST OF THE LOW.
LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND HAVE LEFT ONLY
MID CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BUT STILL SOME LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
EAST OF I-71. OVER WESTERN OHIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING LOW CLOUDS EAST WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. ONCE COOLER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TOWARD NOON...WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
FURTHER WEAKEN AFTER 21Z. TOWARD SUNSET EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP
AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND MAINLY AFFECT THE MFD CAK
CLE YNG AND ERI TAF SITES IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NW PA.
.OUTLOOK...SPOTTY NON VFR LINGERS INTO MONDAY...IMPROVING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED...WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR GUSTING AROUND 30 KNOTS WHILE
WINDS IN THE COOLER AIR ARE NOT AS STRONG. WHILE THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL NOT REACH TOO FAR ONTO THE LAKE GIVEN THAT THE WATER IS
MUCH COOLER THAN THE AIR...FELT STILL THAT A SMALL CRAFT WOULD BE
WARRANTED AS WINDS CLOSE TO SHORE WOULD BE STRONG.
PREVIOUS...EXPECTING A VARIABLE WIND EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BEHIND THE LOW HOWEVER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR SO. MID WEEK THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
637 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TODAY
GIVING A KICK TO A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING DRIER BUT NOTABLY
COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE.
ORIGINAL...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL OCCURRING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY TODAY HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. FOLLOWED SREF POP GUIDANCE STARTING WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF A KCLE
TO KMFD LINE BY 15Z. BY 18Z WILL DROP FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO
CHANCE AND MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER.
HIGHS WILL BE VERY TRICKY TODAY AND HAVE USED THE HRRR WHICH IS
ABLE TO BEST GRAPHICALLY HANDLE MOVING THE TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. IN SHORT...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO RECOVER WITH THE MILD AIR LIFTING TO THE LAKESHORE AGAIN EARLY
WHILE THE WEST WILL REMAIN COOL. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE COOLER
AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH AS
IS.
MEDIA REMIND YOUR VIEWERS AND LISTENERS NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY MORNING MONDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
DOWN TO -7 TO -9 ON THE LAKE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR
LAKE EFFECT TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -12C OR SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SNOW BELT IN THE
MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
DROP TO -14C BY 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
(-20C) THANKFULLY DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. STILL
HOWEVER...-14C WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE AND
IN FACT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...DROPPING BACK TO LIKELY TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
COUNTERING THE -16C TEMPS ON THE LAKE. WILL DROP POPS THROUGH
LIKELY TO CHANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRUSHING
THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT A LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS SO WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS DROP AS
AN UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER
OF THE TWO. WILL FOLLOW WPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD GENERALLY BRINGING BACK A SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...DRYING IT OUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW IN SOUTHWEST OHIO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MANSFIELD TO MEADVILLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND KEEP THE RAIN GOING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND MINIMAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON AREA AND WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD DROP VISIBILITIES
CONSIDERABLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
EXPECTING RAIN TO FINALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND
12Z AS RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...SPOTTY NON VFR LINGERS INTO MONDAY...IMPROVING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED...WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR GUSTING AROUND 30 KNOTS WHILE
WINDS IN THE COOLER AIR ARE NOT AS STRONG. WHILE THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL NOT REACH TOO FAR ONTO THE LAKE GIVEN THAT THE WATER IS
MUCH COOLER THAN THE AIR...FELT STILL THAT A SMALL CRAFT WOULD BE
WARRANTED AS WINDS CLOSE TO SHORE WOULD BE STRONG.
PREVIOUS...EXPECTING A VARIABLE WIND EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BEHIND THE LOW HOWEVER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS OR SO. MID WEEK THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
417 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST TODAY
GIVING A KICK TO A FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING DRIER BUT NOTABLY
COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN COUNTIES EARLY TODAY HOWEVER MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
FOLLOWED SREF POP GUIDANCE STARTING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
EARLY...DROPPING TO SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF A KCLE TO KMFD LINE BY
15Z. BY 18Z WILL DROP FAR EASTERN COUNTIES TO CHANCE AND MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE VERY
TRICKY TODAY AND HAVE USED THE HRRR WHICH IS ABLE TO BEST
GRAPHICALLY HANDLE MOVING THE TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. IN
SHORT...EXPECT TEMPS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL COUNTIES TO RECOVER
WITH THE MILD AIR LIFTING TO THE LAKESHORE AGAIN EARLY WHILE THE
WEST WILL REMAIN COOL. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE COOLER AIR WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS.
MEDIA REMIND YOUR VIEWERS AND LISTENERS NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE DRY SLOT CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AREA ALTHOUGH BY MORNING MONDAY 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
DOWN TO -7 TO -9 ON THE LAKE. WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH FOR
LAKE EFFECT TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -12C OR SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SNOW BELT IN THE
MORNING INCREASING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
DROP TO -14C BY 12Z TUESDAY WHILE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
(-20C) THANKFULLY DROPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. STILL
HOWEVER...-14C WILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE AND
IN FACT WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...DROPPING BACK TO LIKELY TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
COUNTERING THE -16C TEMPS ON THE LAKE. WILL DROP POPS THROUGH
LIKELY TO CHANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKE WITH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRUSHING
THE AREA. AM CONCERNED THAT A LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS SO WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THE DAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS DROP AS
AN UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA HOWEVER THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TIMING WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER
OF THE TWO. WILL FOLLOW WPC/ECMWF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD GENERALLY BRINGING BACK A SHOT AT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...DRYING IT OUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW IN SOUTHWEST OHIO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEAST THROUGH MANSFIELD TO MEADVILLE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AND KEEP THE RAIN GOING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND MINIMAL THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH MANSFIELD AND AKRON CANTON AREA AND WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME VERY LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD DROP VISIBILITIES
CONSIDERABLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
EXPECTING RAIN TO FINALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND
12Z AS RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE REGION.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA.
.OUTLOOK...SPOTTY NON VFR LINGERS INTO MONDAY...IMPROVING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECTING A VARIABLE WIND EARLY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS BEHIND
THE LOW HOWEVER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS
OR SO. MID WEEK THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS REACHING NEAR 30 KNOTS THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
911 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE POPS. THE
MAIN VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE RUC KEEPS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA. WAS TEMPTED TO
RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON ANTICIPATED
CLOUDS. HOWEVER... WITH AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY... HAVE ENOUGH DOUBT THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
INHIBITED ALL THAT MUCH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED. THEREFORE... WILL UPDATE
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH OUT
TO SEA TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. ASIDE FROM
THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS DROPPING
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES NR VIRGINIA BEACH SLOWING EXIT OF SFC FRONT
ALONG THE E COAST THIS EVENING. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL EARLY THIS
EVENING WELL WEST OF THE FRONT IN REGION OF FGEN FORCING BENEATH
RIGHT ENTRANCE TO POWERFUL UPPER JET. LATEST RAP OUTPUT CAPTURES
THIS FORCING THE THE 8-7H LVL AND IMPLIES THE LAST OF THE RAIN
WILL EXIT LANCASTER CO BY 00Z.
THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND WILL BE
APPROACHING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE
PUSHED OFF WELL TO THE EAST BY OVERNIGHT...BUT BETWEEN GR LAKES
MOISTURE AND THE INCREASE IN UPPER FORCING...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE
INTO NW PA. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVERAGE LESS THAN
ADVISORY LEVELS IN MOST AREAS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW REPORTS OF 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF NW WARREN CO THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL END THE RECENT SPELL OF VERY MILD WEATHER WITH
TEENS AND 20S GETTING BACK VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROF WILL PASS BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT HELPING SUPPORT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
COATING TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ELSEWHERE.
FORCING FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WANING RAPIDLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGE HURRIES TO FILL IN BEHIND OUR
DEPARTING TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPS FROM NEAR 20 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 49 IN THE SE WILL
REPRESENT A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROFFING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CONUS AS MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAM DIRECTS SEVERAL WAVES OF COLD AIR INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT
STRONG SFC HIGH WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. IN GENERA...MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER-WISE DESPITE SEVERAL FRONTAL PASSAGES...AS
SYSTEMS WILL BE MOISTURE LIMITED AND NOT ABLE TO PRODUCE MUCH
PCPN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST...BUT ON THE DECREASE.
LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUE...AS A STRONG UPPER
LVL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THINK
THAT BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS
DAY.
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THU...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY AT BFD.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR HIGH PRES.
THU-FRI...OCNL SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR CIGS WEST. VFR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS.
SAT...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT OUR OFFICIAL CLIMATE
SITES /HARRISBURG AND WILLIAMSPORT/ YESTERDAY. THERE WERE ALSO
SEVERAL "UNOFFICIAL" RECORD HIGHS SET AT NON-LCD SITES SUCH AS
ALTOONA AND BRADFORD.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT HARRISBURG
YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 64 DEGREES SET BACK
IN 1949. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT HARRISBURG
SINCE 1888.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT
WILLIAMSPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 60 DEGREES
SET BACK IN 1949. A CONTINUOUS WEATHER RECORD HAS BEEN KEPT AT
WILLIAMSPORT SINCE 1895.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
CLIMATE...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
.AVIATION...
NO THREAT TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT NLY WINDS TODAY WILL
VEER S-SWLY BY TONIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WINTER DOES NOT WANT TO LET UP FOR THE REGION WITH RENEWED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS HAS STILL
TO PASS LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND 750-700MB EDGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LIFT PEAKING AROUND
12Z UNDER SATURATED SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH...THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MODEL RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS IS A DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. THIS CAN CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
TOTALS WITH THE MORE MOIST RAP SHOWING MORE SNOWFALL.
LONG TERM...
WITH THE EXIT EAST OF THE CURRENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH MONDAY...LESSER
AMPLITUDE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. NEXT SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIM BY TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRONT INTO THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW
APPEARS IN THE WORKS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH BACKING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SPREAD IN THE
DEVELOPING INTER-MOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST WARMING MONDAY...A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT
WILL SLIP IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER WARMING
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THEN THE SLIGHT CHRISTMAS DAY
COOL-DOWN WITH SLOW WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BIGGER BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES AND MORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE NEXT COOLING THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 19 42 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 20 42 24 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 40 21 46 25 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 42 22 49 26 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 42 23 49 26 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 44 24 50 28 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 44 24 51 27 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 40 22 46 24 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 45 23 50 27 57 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 45 24 51 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE EXISTS A VERY SMALL
CHANCE AT SNOW FLURRIES AT KLBB DURING THE MORNING HOURS BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013/
SHORT TERM...
WINTER DOES NOT WANT TO LET UP FOR THE REGION WITH RENEWED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS HAS STILL
TO PASS LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND 750-700MB EDGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LIFT PEAKING AROUND
12Z UNDER SATURATED SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH...THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MODEL RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS IS A DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. THIS CAN CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
TOTALS WITH THE MORE MOIST RAP SHOWING MORE SNOWFALL.
LONG TERM...
WITH THE EXIT EAST OF THE CURRENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH MONDAY...LESSER
AMPLITUDE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. NEXT SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIM BY TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRONT INTO THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW
APPEARS IN THE WORKS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH BACKING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SPREAD IN THE
DEVELOPING INTER-MOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST WARMING MONDAY...A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT
WILL SLIP IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER WARMING
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THEN THE SLIGHT CHRISTMAS DAY
COOL-DOWN WITH SLOW WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BIGGER BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES AND MORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE NEXT COOLING THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 19 46 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 20 46 24 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 40 21 49 25 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 42 23 51 26 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 42 23 52 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 44 23 52 28 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 44 23 52 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 40 22 49 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 45 22 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 45 23 53 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
331 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...
WINTER DOES NOT WANT TO LET UP FOR THE REGION WITH RENEWED CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS HAS STILL
TO PASS LATER THIS MORNING. WEAK Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE AREA. THIS WAS COUPLED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND 750-700MB EDGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LIFT PEAKING AROUND
12Z UNDER SATURATED SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH...THE ONLY DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MODEL RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS IS A DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. THIS CAN CERTAINLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN SNOW
TOTALS WITH THE MORE MOIST RAP SHOWING MORE SNOWFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WITH THE EXIT EAST OF THE CURRENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH MONDAY...LESSER
AMPLITUDE AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME DOMINANT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. NEXT SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIM BY TO THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER FRONT INTO THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. FLATTER WESTERLY FLOW
APPEARS IN THE WORKS EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH BACKING AND INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATER IN THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SPREAD IN THE
DEVELOPING INTER-MOUNTAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ON THE RISE. THIS
PATTERN WILL YIELD MODEST WARMING MONDAY...A WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT
WILL SLIP IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BETTER WARMING
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THEN THE SLIGHT CHRISTMAS DAY
COOL-DOWN WITH SLOW WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BIGGER BOOST IN
TEMPERATURES AND MORE GUSTY SOUTHWEST BREEZES EXPECTED SATURDAY
BEFORE NEXT COOLING THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 19 46 24 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
TULIA 38 20 46 24 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 40 21 49 25 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 42 23 51 26 56 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 43 23 52 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 44 23 52 28 55 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 44 23 52 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 40 22 49 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
SPUR 45 22 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 45 23 53 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
01/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO PARTS
OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND
WITH IT WILL COME AN ABRUPT END TO OUR VERY MILD WEATHER. COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 200 AM EST SUNDAY...
ADDED MORE COUNTIES TO WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING. WATCHING
CONVECTION TO THE WEST MOVING EAST. MORE CHANGES AS MORNING
PROGRESSES.
AS OF 101 AM EST SUNDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SCATTERED STORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN INDIANA THIS MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERN WINDS ADVECTING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ELEVATION ABOVE 3000 FEET TO CAPTURE LOW LEVEL JET.
MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER...
AS OF 1040 PM EST SATURDAY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INCHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB
AND ADVECT PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...VERY HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS FOR LATE DECEMBER. HAVE RAISED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NEAR FLOYD
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ANOTHER REGION TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE ACTUALLY FRONT...AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING PERIODIC
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER
12Z/7AM. THIS TIMING IS SUPPORT BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
AS WELL AS THE 18Z LOCAL WRF.
THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR EQUALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE EXPECTING NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY BEGINS WITH MILD TEMPS AND HEALTHY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
UP ALONG BLUE RIDGE WITH VISIBILITIES SOCKED IN ALONG BLUE
RIDGE...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WITH HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC AROUND DAYBREAK MODELS HAVE
DEFINITELY SLOWED THIS DOWN. SEEING EXTREMELY LIMITED INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDER...BUT WENT AHEAD ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER BY NOON
FOR MUCH OF SW VA AND NW NC. SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION MAY HAVE
VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH IT AS IT ENTERS FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FCST
AREA...BUT MOST MODELS HAVE THIS WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT ENTERS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS
WEST OF I-81 AND SOUTH OF 460...MAYBE INTO NW NC. GENERALLY SW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THIS...AND MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT VERY HIGHEST RIDGES...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH...AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS...TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
BY AFTERNOON...PARTS OF THIS LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION SHOULD
SNEAK INTO PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE IN
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST TRENDS. STILL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
SOUTH ALONG BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENHANCING PRECIP AMOUNTS THERE
REGARDLESS OF TIMING OF THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDER. NAM STILL IS SLOWEST AND LARGELY DUE TO STRONGLY
INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SPREADS
MORE PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE WEST AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SOME HINTS OF THIS IN GFS BUT IT STILL REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM NAM AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED
ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF MORE OUT INTO PIEDMONT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY GOING CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF IDEA...AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS GFS...BUT DID ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ALONG BLUE RIDGE MORE SO THAN WHAT THESE MODELS HAVE.
THUS HAVE INCREASED OVERALL STORM QPF SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 2.5 TO
3 INCHES FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST. PLEASE READ THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT GONE WITH ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...STILL LOOKING AT A RECORD BREAKING MILD
AFTERNOON, DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT WITH THE PIEDMONT HOLDING OFF ON RAIN UNTIL
LATE...LIKELY TO SEE MID 70S. JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
TIE OR BREAK A RECORD MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR RECORDS.
ON MONDAY THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO FILTER
IN...BUT NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS EVEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN WITH THIS WAVE. COLD AIR
MAY BEGIN TO RUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE IN THE EAST UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AGAIN...SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL IN TERMS OF HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OR DEVELOP MORE PRECIP...AND HAVE NOT DROPPED POPS TOO LOW
ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THIS REASON...BUT THERE COULD BE A BREAK
MOST OF MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST WHILE SHOWERS STILL PLAGUE THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING EAST AFTER THE WAVE GOES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN TYPICAL
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF THE WEST...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUES MORNING WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE DIGGING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY THIS TIME...AND WHILE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MORE WESTERLY...NOT IDEAL FOR BEST UPSLOPE SNOWS...THE
ADVECTION OVER VERY MOIST GROUND JUST UPSTREAM IS STILL A CONCERN.
STILL LEANING MORE TOWARD THE MODELS THAT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING. RIGHT
NOW THINKING A VERY LIGHT ACCUM IN NW NC MTNS...WITH AN INCH OR
TWO IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WV. NAM STILL STINGY ON THIS...BUT
THINKING GFS HAS BEST HANDLE...AND COULD EVEN BE MORE.
THIS WAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH AND SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY TUES..WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION...DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS AT THE MOMENT...AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WITH MANY AREAS OF THE WEST REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. WENT WITH COLDER ECMWF MOS-BASED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...
STRONG DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY COLD MORNINGS
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND WILL MEAN SW SURFACE
FLOW...POTENTIALLY PUSHING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR +5C. A COLDER PATTERN
COULD ARRIVE PAST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES SOUTH
THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE POTENTIALLY LINKING FROM GREENLAND TO
ALASKA.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST SATURDAY...
IFR STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR AT
KLYH/KDAN/KROA/KBCB THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON
50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WINDS. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO NEAR A KLWB-KBLF LINE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM 1AM THROUGH 8AM.
ON SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE FIRST STRONG BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOES THROUGH BUT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
FOR NOW HAVE LOWERED INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
A REINFORCING WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND
DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL MONDAY.
EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THEN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SE WV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR COME INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
THIS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SECOND WAVE RIDING UP ALONG FRONT
SLOWING IT DOWN..WITH STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
GULF. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WOULD BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR DECEMBER. WHILE SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE MAXIMUM PRECIP
OUTPUT...SOME SIGNS THAT TWO AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...AND ALSO OUT IN THE PIEDMONT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND JUST OVER 3 INCHES...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
NOT ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...BUT
COULD BRING THE DAN RIVER UP TO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
TUESDAY FROM UPSTREAM AND LOCAL RUNOFF. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER IN NW NC FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL
AS ROANOKE RIVER FOR MON/TUES TIME FRAME. IF HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE CORRECT...THERE COULD BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...BOTH FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
YET TO GO WITH A WATCH OF ANY KIND YET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE AT EACH CLIMATE SITE FOR
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER ARE AT RISK OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
BLACKSBURG 55/DEC 23 1990
ROANOKE 60/DEC 14 1927
LYNCHBURG 62/DEC 16 1971
DANVILLE 60/DEC 6 2011
BLUEFIELD 58/DEC 22 1990
LEWISBURG 58/DEC 28 1982
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009>011-015-
018>020-022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/SK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
HYDROLOGY...SK
CLIMATE...CF/DS/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
112 AM EST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO PARTS
OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND
WITH IT WILL COME AN ABRUPT END TO OUR VERY MILD WEATHER. COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 101 AM EST SUNDAY...
ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS WITH SCATTERED STORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN INDIANA THIS MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. STRONG SOUTHERN WINDS ADVECTING
PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ELEVATION ABOVE 3000 FEET TO CAPTURE LOW LEVEL JET.
MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER...
AS OF 1040 PM EST SATURDAY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INCHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB
AND ADVECT PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...VERY HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS FOR LATE DECEMBER. HAVE RAISED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NEAR FLOYD
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ANOTHER REGION TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE ACTUALLY FRONT...AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING PERIODIC
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER
12Z/7AM. THIS TIMING IS SUPPORT BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
AS WELL AS THE 18Z LOCAL WRF.
THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR EQUALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE EXPECTING NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY BEGINS WITH MILD TEMPS AND HEALTHY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
UP ALONG BLUE RIDGE WITH VISIBILITIES SOCKED IN ALONG BLUE
RIDGE...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WITH HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC AROUND DAYBREAK MODELS HAVE
DEFINITELY SLOWED THIS DOWN. SEEING EXTREMELY LIMITED INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDER...BUT WENT AHEAD ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER BY NOON
FOR MUCH OF SW VA AND NW NC. SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION MAY HAVE
VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH IT AS IT ENTERS FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FCST
AREA...BUT MOST MODELS HAVE THIS WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT ENTERS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS
WEST OF I-81 AND SOUTH OF 460...MAYBE INTO NW NC. GENERALLY SW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THIS...AND MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT VERY HIGHEST RIDGES...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH...AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS...TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
BY AFTERNOON...PARTS OF THIS LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION SHOULD
SNEAK INTO PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE IN
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST TRENDS. STILL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
SOUTH ALONG BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENHANCING PRECIP AMOUNTS THERE
REGARDLESS OF TIMING OF THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDER. NAM STILL IS SLOWEST AND LARGELY DUE TO STRONGLY
INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SPREADS
MORE PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE WEST AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SOME HINTS OF THIS IN GFS BUT IT STILL REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM NAM AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED
ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF MORE OUT INTO PIEDMONT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY GOING CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF IDEA...AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS GFS...BUT DID ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ALONG BLUE RIDGE MORE SO THAN WHAT THESE MODELS HAVE.
THUS HAVE INCREASED OVERALL STORM QPF SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 2.5 TO
3 INCHES FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST. PLEASE READ THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT GONE WITH ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...STILL LOOKING AT A RECORD BREAKING MILD
AFTERNOON, DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT WITH THE PIEDMONT HOLDING OFF ON RAIN UNTIL
LATE...LIKELY TO SEE MID 70S. JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
TIE OR BREAK A RECORD MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR RECORDS.
ON MONDAY THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO FILTER
IN...BUT NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS EVEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN WITH THIS WAVE. COLD AIR
MAY BEGIN TO RUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE IN THE EAST UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AGAIN...SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL IN TERMS OF HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OR DEVELOP MORE PRECIP...AND HAVE NOT DROPPED POPS TOO LOW
ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THIS REASON...BUT THERE COULD BE A BREAK
MOST OF MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST WHILE SHOWERS STILL PLAGUE THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING EAST AFTER THE WAVE GOES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN TYPICAL
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF THE WEST...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUES MORNING WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE DIGGING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY THIS TIME...AND WHILE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MORE WESTERLY...NOT IDEAL FOR BEST UPSLOPE SNOWS...THE
ADVECTION OVER VERY MOIST GROUND JUST UPSTREAM IS STILL A CONCERN.
STILL LEANING MORE TOWARD THE MODELS THAT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING. RIGHT
NOW THINKING A VERY LIGHT ACCUM IN NW NC MTNS...WITH AN INCH OR
TWO IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WV. NAM STILL STINGY ON THIS...BUT
THINKING GFS HAS BEST HANDLE...AND COULD EVEN BE MORE.
THIS WAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH AND SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY TUES..WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION...DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS AT THE MOMENT...AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WITH MANY AREAS OF THE WEST REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. WENT WITH COLDER ECMWF MOS-BASED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...
STRONG DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY COLD MORNINGS
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND WILL MEAN SW SURFACE
FLOW...POTENTIALLY PUSHING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR +5C. A COLDER PATTERN
COULD ARRIVE PAST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES SOUTH
THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE POTENTIALLY LINKING FROM GREENLAND TO
ALASKA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST SATURDAY...
IFR STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR AT
KLYH/KDAN/KROA/KBCB THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON
50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WINDS. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO NEAR A KLWB-KBLF LINE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM 1AM THROUGH 8AM.
ON SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE FIRST STRONG BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOES THROUGH BUT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
FOR NOW HAVE LOWERED INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
A REINFORCING WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND
DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL MONDAY.
EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THEN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SE WV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR COME INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
THIS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SECOND WAVE RIDING UP ALONG FRONT
SLOWING IT DOWN..WITH STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
GULF. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WOULD BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR DECEMBER. WHILE SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE MAXIMUM PRECIP
OUTPUT...SOME SIGNS THAT TWO AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...AND ALSO OUT IN THE PIEDMONT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND JUST OVER 3 INCHES...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
NOT ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...BUT
COULD BRING THE DAN RIVER UP TO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
TUESDAY FROM UPSTREAM AND LOCAL RUNOFF. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER IN NW NC FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL
AS ROANOKE RIVER FOR MON/TUES TIME FRAME. IF HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE CORRECT...THERE COULD BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...BOTH FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
YET TO GO WITH A WATCH OF ANY KIND YET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE AT EACH CLIMATE SITE FOR
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER ARE AT RISK OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
BLACKSBURG 55/DEC 23 1990
ROANOKE 60/DEC 14 1927
LYNCHBURG 62/DEC 16 1971
DANVILLE 60/DEC 6 2011
BLUEFIELD 58/DEC 22 1990
LEWISBURG 58/DEC 28 1982
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ007-009-015-018>020-
022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR WVZ043>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/SK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS/KK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
HYDROLOGY...SK
CLIMATE...CF/DS/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1158 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO PARTS
OF MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND
WITH IT WILL COME AN ABRUPT END TO OUR VERY MILD WEATHER. COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1040 PM EST SATURDAY...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INCHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KTS AT 850 MB
AND ADVECT PLENTY OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE REALIZED IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...VERY HIGH
SURFACE DEW POINTS FOR LATE DECEMBER. HAVE RAISED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM NEAR FLOYD
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ANOTHER REGION TO WATCH FOR PRECIPITATION IS SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE ACTUALLY FRONT...AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP TO BRING PERIODIC
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA UNTIL AFTER
12Z/7AM. THIS TIMING IS SUPPORT BY THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
AS WELL AS THE 18Z LOCAL WRF.
THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR EQUALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. WE ARE EXPECTING NEW RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
EVERYWHERE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 350 PM EST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY BEGINS WITH MILD TEMPS AND HEALTHY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
UP ALONG BLUE RIDGE WITH VISIBILITIES SOCKED IN ALONG BLUE
RIDGE...LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WITH HEAVIER BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS JUST
ENTERING FAR SOUTHWEST VA AND NW NC AROUND DAYBREAK MODELS HAVE
DEFINITELY SLOWED THIS DOWN. SEEING EXTREMELY LIMITED INSTABILITY
FOR THUNDER...BUT WENT AHEAD ADDED SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER BY NOON
FOR MUCH OF SW VA AND NW NC. SHALLOW LINE OF CONVECTION MAY HAVE
VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH IT AS IT ENTERS FAR WESTERN PORTION OF FCST
AREA...BUT MOST MODELS HAVE THIS WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT ENTERS
DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT SOME DAMAGING WINDS
WEST OF I-81 AND SOUTH OF 460...MAYBE INTO NW NC. GENERALLY SW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THIS...AND MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT VERY HIGHEST RIDGES...BUT SHOULD BE ISOLATED
ENOUGH...AND NOT HIGH ENOUGH POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS...TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
BY AFTERNOON...PARTS OF THIS LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION SHOULD
SNEAK INTO PIEDMONT...BUT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE IN
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST TRENDS. STILL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM
SOUTH ALONG BLUE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENHANCING PRECIP AMOUNTS THERE
REGARDLESS OF TIMING OF THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDER. NAM STILL IS SLOWEST AND LARGELY DUE TO STRONGLY
INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE RIDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND SPREADS
MORE PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE WEST AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SOME HINTS OF THIS IN GFS BUT IT STILL REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM NAM AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS SUGGESTED
ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF MORE OUT INTO PIEDMONT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY GOING CLOSER TO
GFS/ECMWF IDEA...AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS GFS...BUT DID ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL ALONG BLUE RIDGE MORE SO THAN WHAT THESE MODELS HAVE.
THUS HAVE INCREASED OVERALL STORM QPF SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH 2.5 TO
3 INCHES FROM BLUE RIDGE EAST. PLEASE READ THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL...BUT FOR NOW HAVE NOT GONE WITH ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...STILL LOOKING AT A RECORD BREAKING MILD
AFTERNOON, DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT WITH THE PIEDMONT HOLDING OFF ON RAIN UNTIL
LATE...LIKELY TO SEE MID 70S. JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD
TIE OR BREAK A RECORD MAX TEMP FOR THE DATE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR RECORDS.
ON MONDAY THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO FILTER
IN...BUT NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AS EVEN THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS HAS SLOWED THINGS DOWN WITH THIS WAVE. COLD AIR
MAY BEGIN TO RUSH IN LATE IN THE DAY IN THE WEST...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT ARRIVE IN THE EAST UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AGAIN...SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL IN TERMS OF HOW FAR WEST THIS WAVE WILL
SPREAD OR DEVELOP MORE PRECIP...AND HAVE NOT DROPPED POPS TOO LOW
ACROSS THE FAR WEST FOR THIS REASON...BUT THERE COULD BE A BREAK
MOST OF MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST WHILE SHOWERS STILL PLAGUE THE
BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE FINALLY
PUSHING EAST AFTER THE WAVE GOES BY LATE IN THE DAY.
WITH WESTERLY FLOW...SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN TYPICAL
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS OF THE WEST...BUT CHANCES INCREASE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUES MORNING WITH
STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE DIGGING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
AREA. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BY THIS TIME...AND WHILE LOW LEVEL
WINDS MORE WESTERLY...NOT IDEAL FOR BEST UPSLOPE SNOWS...THE
ADVECTION OVER VERY MOIST GROUND JUST UPSTREAM IS STILL A CONCERN.
STILL LEANING MORE TOWARD THE MODELS THAT PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
UPSLOPE ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING. RIGHT
NOW THINKING A VERY LIGHT ACCUM IN NW NC MTNS...WITH AN INCH OR
TWO IN WESTERN GREENBRIER WV. NAM STILL STINGY ON THIS...BUT
THINKING GFS HAS BEST HANDLE...AND COULD EVEN BE MORE.
THIS WAVE MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH AND SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY TUES..WITH CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION...DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WIND ADV CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS AT THE MOMENT...AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPS WITH MANY AREAS OF THE WEST REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
DAY. WENT WITH COLDER ECMWF MOS-BASED GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM EST SATURDAY...
STRONG DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO SOME VERY COLD MORNINGS
NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS IN THE DEEPEST COLDEST VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEKEND WILL MEAN SW SURFACE
FLOW...POTENTIALLY PUSHING H85 TEMPS TO NEAR +5C. A COLDER PATTERN
COULD ARRIVE PAST NEXT WEEKEND AS THE POLAR VORTEX DIVES SOUTH
THANKS TO AN UPPER RIDGE POTENTIALLY LINKING FROM GREENLAND TO
ALASKA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1155 PM EST SATURDAY...
IFR STRATUS COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE THIS EVENING.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE IFR AT
KLYH/KDAN/KROA/KBCB THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON
50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WINDS. ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALSO NEAR A KLWB-KBLF LINE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM 1AM THROUGH 8AM.
ON SUNDAY MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER THE FIRST STRONG BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOES THROUGH BUT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
FOR NOW HAVE LOWERED INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE.
A REINFORCING WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AND
DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL MONDAY.
EXPECT A SHARP WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH...THEN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SE WV MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR COME INTO THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 335 PM EST SATURDAY...
MODEL TRENDS TOWARD HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND
THIS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SECOND WAVE RIDING UP ALONG FRONT
SLOWING IT DOWN..WITH STRONG FETCH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
GULF. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES
WOULD BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR DECEMBER. WHILE SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE LIKELY OVERDOING THE MAXIMUM PRECIP
OUTPUT...SOME SIGNS THAT TWO AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...AND ALSO OUT IN THE PIEDMONT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE
BETWEEN 2 AND JUST OVER 3 INCHES...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
NOT ONLY LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...BUT
COULD BRING THE DAN RIVER UP TO ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
TUESDAY FROM UPSTREAM AND LOCAL RUNOFF. MAY ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
HEADWATERS OF THE NEW RIVER IN NW NC FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL
AS ROANOKE RIVER FOR MON/TUES TIME FRAME. IF HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE CORRECT...THERE COULD BE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS...BOTH FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
YET TO GO WITH A WATCH OF ANY KIND YET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE AT EACH CLIMATE SITE FOR
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER ARE AT RISK OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
HIGHEST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...
BLACKSBURG 55/DEC 23 1990
ROANOKE 60/DEC 14 1927
LYNCHBURG 62/DEC 16 1971
DANVILLE 60/DEC 6 2011
BLUEFIELD 58/DEC 22 1990
LEWISBURG 58/DEC 28 1982
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015-018>020-
022>024-034-035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR WVZ043>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/SK
NEAR TERM...AMS/DS
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...AMS/DS
HYDROLOGY...SK
CLIMATE...CF/DS/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
829 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
.UPDATE...
IMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR ABOUT 20 MILES OFF
SHORE...OUT OVER THE LAKE. IT IS A BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 4-7KFT LAYER THAT ARE PUSHING TOWARD SHORE...AND THE
BRISK AND EXTREMELY DRY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TRYING TO BEAT IT
BACK. THE HRRR SAYS IT WILL NEVER MAKE IT TO SHORE. IT GETS
CLOSE...THEN HEADS EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. REALITY WOULD SUGGEST
SOME OF THOSE HIGHER RETURNS WILL MAKE IT TO SHORE...BUT IT
APPEARS THEY WILL TEMPERED DUE TO THE DRY LOW LEVELS. WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME SHORELINE AREAS SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN GET A SNEAKY
INCH OF SNOW ACCUM OUT OF THIS. THE SHEBOYGAN AREA HAS ALREADY
GOTTEN 1-3 INCHES TODAY...IT/S BEEN SNOWING UP THERE NEARLY ALL
DAY.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF HELPING TO DRIVE ALL THIS DOES DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF US BY MORNING...SO I EXPECT THE SNOW TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MAYBE NOT AS FAST AS THE PREV FORECAST THOUGHT
HOWEVER.
THE OTHER MAIN STORY IS THE COLD. TEMPS DROPPED EARLY AND FAST IN
THE SOUTH WHERE SKIES CLEARED FOR A TIME. WITH WINDS STILL
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST OF MADISON...WIND CHILL READINGS WERE HITTING
-20 ALREADY. EXPECT THESE COLD WIND CHILLS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR
IOWA/LAFAYETTE AND GREEN COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 3-4 AM
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF SLOWLY EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AFTER 12-13Z TUESDAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BRING SIMILAR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO
SNOW AFTER 02Z WED AT MADISON AND 04Z AT MILWAUKEE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013/
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MAIN ISSUES WILL BE ENDING THE LIGHT SNOW...SUBSEQUENT CLEARING...
FRIGID TEMPS AND POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ISSUES. WITH LIGHT SNOW
PIVOTING NORTHEAST AROUND CIRCULATION NEAR KARX...EXPECT THE
STEADIEST SNOW INTO THE EVENING TO BE ACROSS THE NE 1/2 OF THE CWA.
THE CIRCULATION DOES DRIFT ESE WITH TIME SO SOME AREAS THAT CLEARED
OUT IN SW CWA MAY STILL SEE SOME CLOUDS/FLURRIES THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW TEMPS. 925 TEMPS DROP TO -14 TO -16C.
TEMPS ALREADY DROPPING OFF QUITE QUICKLY IN THE SW CWA. RIDGE AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER AND 925 MB WINDS REALLY DROP OFF ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN CWA. SO WILL DROP TEMPS A BIT FURTHER. WITH UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...POTENTIAL FOR REST OF CWA
TO CLEAR OUT AS WELL. 925/850 MB RH PROGS ARE SHOWING A DECREASING
TREND IN THIS REGARD...SO NO REAL REASON NOT TO EXPECT A DECENT TEMP
DROPOFF CWA WIDE.
WIND CHILL GETS TO NEAR -20 IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
THOUGH TEMPORAL AND AREAL EXTENT NOT GREAT...SO AFTER COLLAB WITH
KARX WILL HOLD OFF ON ADVISORY THERE...BUT CWA WIDE WIND CHILLS TO
EVENTUALLY DROP INTO THAT BITTER -10 TO 20 RANGE.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
AFTER A FRIGID START...SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST OF WI. 850
MB WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MOISTURE AOA 10K FEET ARRIVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPS REBOUND TO -11 OR -12C...HOWEVER EXPECT A
MIXING OUT TO LOWER THAN THAT SO GOING WITH ONLY TEENS FOR HIGHS.
SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SNOW
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST SHOT WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SEEN
WITH DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS OCCURS WITHIN SATURATED
AIR COLUMN TAPPING DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH ZONE.
HIGH POPS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS
OF 17/19 TO 1 GIVES AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASING DURING THIS TIME MAY LEAD TO
DRIFTING ON EAST TO WEST ROADS. NO ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...BUT MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IF SNOW AMOUNTS INCREASE IN LATER FORECASTS.
KEPT POPS GOING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS MODELS
BRING ANOTHER 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. NAM IS A
BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
MOISTURE IS MODEST THROUGH THE AIR COLUMN...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAVE
POPS GOING. MAY SEE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH DURING THIS PERIOD. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LEFT THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW...AS HIGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST. MORE
500 MB SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SLOW TO SATURATE. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
SEVERAL 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA PER ECWMF AND GFS MODELS. AIRMASS SEEMS FAIRLY
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...SO KEPT FORECAST DRY PER CONSENSUS BLEND OF
POPS. KEPT POPS IN LATER ON...AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. MAINTAINED CONSENSUS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WHICH KEEPS THE AREA COLD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
NW-SE ORIENTED MVFR SNOW AREA ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW IFR VSBYS IN THIS BAND. RADAR
ANIMATION SHOWS CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR KLSE. BAND OF SNOW
PIVOTING AROUND THIS FEATURE. EXPECT SNOW TO PERSIST MAINLY IN THE
NE 1/2 OF CWA THIS EVENING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY DEF
ZONE PCPN DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NEAR KLSE.
DRYING THEN WORKS IN AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ACROSS THE CWA AT 18Z TUESDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE OH VLY BY 00Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW SETS UP THOUGH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
DISTURBANCE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND REMAIN GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
REMAIN SO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT GUSTS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST WAVES LIKELY TOWARDS OPEN WATER.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ062-067-068.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CONTINUING LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT/MON...LOWS/WIND CHILLS MON NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE
WITH TROUGHING NORTHWEST THRU LOWER MI/WI INTO NORTHERN MN. MAIN
SNOW AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT TRACKED NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING WAS ALREADY EXITING NORTHEAST WI. WARNINGS/
ADVISORIES IN/AROUND THE AREA BEFORE 18Z DUE TO THE RAPID EXIT OF
THIS SNOW AREA.. LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER WESTERN WI/MUCH OF MN AT
MID-DAY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. VISIBILITIES IN MUCH OF
THIS SNOW VARIED FROM 1 TO 7 MILES.
INITIALIZATIONS OF 22.12Z MODELS GENERALLY GOOD WITH SOLUTIONS VERY
SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...THOUGH NO 22.12Z CAN-GEM DATA
AVAILABLE THIS CYCLE. THIS AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT A
RATHER DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/MON THEN
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN MON NIGHT. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
STRONGER/SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH THRU THE PERIOD. CHECK OF OBS VS.
MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED ALL TO BE QUITE REASONABLE WITH THE LK ERIE
SFC LOW AND TROUGHING BACK INTO MN/WI. BLEND OF THE MODELS LOOKED
BEST WITH THE 12-18Z PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS THOUGH
INDIVIDUALLY ALL WERE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS. PER WV IMAGERY ALL
LOOKED QUITE GOOD WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER NOAM. NO ONE
FAVORITE AND WITH SOLUTIONS TRENDING TOWARD AN EVEN TIGHTER
CONSENSUS...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FOR THE SHORT TERM...ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/SHORTWAVES OVER THE DAKOTAS TO SASKAT/ALB TO CARVE OUT A DEEP
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE NEXT 24HRS. FALLING HGTS
AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES WORK
TO DEEPEN AN 850-700MB LOW/CIRCULATION OVER WESTERN WI/EASTERN MN
TONIGHT...TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE INCREASING
LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE WORKS WITH THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO
CONTINUE WRINGING OUT SOME OF THE PLENTIFUL SFC-700MB AND ABOVE
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. DEEPEST OF THE MOISTURE/STRONGER OF THE
CONVERGENCE/LIFT IS OVER THE NORTHEAST 3/4 OR SO OF THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT/MON AS THE WEAK 850-700MB LOW DEVELOPS/MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED 70-100 PERCENT -SN CHANCES FOR THE
NORTHEAST 3/4 OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...THEN TREND THESE SLOWLY
EASTWARD AND DOWNWARD MONDAY AS THE 850-500MB TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY
PASSES. GIVEN THE COOLING COLUMN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ABOUT
HALF THE DEPTH OF THE SFC-700MB LAYER SNOW-WATER RATIOS LOOKING TO
BE MORE IN THE 15-20 TO 1 RANGE. MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES 0.05 TO
0.15 INCH OF QPF OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...
THUS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS REACHING NEAR OR JUST BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE. WIND CHILLS AT SITES LIKE
KTOB/KAUM/KCCY DIP TO AROUND -20 LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING. WILL
ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR 06Z-18Z MON FOR THE WESTERN 6
COUNTIES OF THE FCST AREA.
RATHER SHARP SFC-850MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST INTO THE FCST AREA MON
NIGHT...TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER MODEL CONSENSUS
RELUCTANT TO CLEAR OUT THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WI EAST OF THIS
RIDGE AXIS. WITH LIGHTER WINDS MON NIGHT...CLOUDS OR NO CLOUDS WILL
HAVE AS MUCH AS A 5F TO 10F IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS...WARMER UNDER THE
CLOUDS. GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTIES STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR LOWS MON NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE -5F TO -15F RANGE.
THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH EVEN THE LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS TO
PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. TO
AVOID THE /DOUBLE HEADLINE/ WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE TUE THRU WED NIGHT PERIOD ARE
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS LATE TUE THRU WED NIGHT.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS AMONG THE 22.12Z MODELS CONTINUES IN THE TUE
THRU WED NIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING QUICKLY PASSES AND THE NEXT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME DIFFERENCES BY LATER WED/WED
NIGHT WITH GFS LOOKING TO BE A FAST OUTLIER WITH A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE REGION. FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE GOOD TUE/TUE NIGHT...THEN AVERAGE FOR WED/WED NIGHT.
SFC-700MB RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TUE...WITH
RATHER STRONG 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND SFC-500MB MOISTURE
SPREADING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE PLUS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT PROVIDE RATHER DEEP UPWARD FORCING THRU THE COLUMN CENTERED
ON TUESDAY EVENING. DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATED LATE TUE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE RATHER FLUFFY CHRISTMAS EVE
SNOW. BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS QPF PRODUCTION...1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW LOOKS QUITE LIKELY FOR THE FCST AREA FROM LATE TUE AFTERNOON
INTO WED MORNING. IF NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE CORRECT WITH A RATHER
STRONG SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIFT MOVES BY TO SQUEEZE OUT MORE LIGHT SNOW LATER WED INTO WED
NIGHT. FOR NOW LEFT -SN CHANCES WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN THE 20-40
PERCENT RANGE. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND FOR HIGHS/LOWS TUE
THRU WED NIGHT.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 22.00Z/22.12Z SHOW GOOD BETWEEN MODEL
AND RUN-TO-RUN AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM THU/FRI...WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING ACROSS THE REGION
THRU THIS FLOW. ACTUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HGTS OVER THE REGION TO
RISE A BIT SAT AS THE THU/FRI TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST AND STRONGER
TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANY RISE OF HGTS/WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION LOOKS SHORT LIVED AS MODELS MAINTAIN
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR RENEWED TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY. WITH THE BETTER BETWEEN MODEL CONSISTENCY THIS CYCLE
THE DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE PLUS SIDE OF AVERAGE.
SOME GFS/ECMWF CONSISTENCY FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/TROUGH TO BE
ROTATING EAST OF THE FCST AREA AT 12Z THU. DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT FOR THU INTO FRI...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A
BREAK FROM THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OF MUCH OF THE TONIGHT THRU WED
NIGHT PERIOD. THE HIGH MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRI
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN. THU NIGHT SHAPING UP
TO BE A NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO LOWS ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS/LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE THE AREA THAT NIGHT. MDT/STRONG
LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT.
APPEARS MUCH OF THIS GOES INTO WARMING...WITH SFC- 700MB MOISTURE
REMAINING SCANT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD MOTION GENERATED.
850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO GO FROM AROUND -8C TO -12C AT 12Z FRI TO 0C
TO +6C BY 12Z SAT AS WESTERLY SFC-700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT/SAT DRY FOR NOW WITH THE
STRONG UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND. GOOD GFS/ECMWF
CONSISTENCY FOR A STRONGER SFC THRU 700MB TROUGH TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOWER LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO FOLLOW THE
TROUGH AXIS. IF PRESENT TIMING/ CONSENSUS MAINTAINS...WHAT SMALL
MODEL CONSENSUS -SN CHANCES ARE IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR SAT
NIGHT/SUN WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED. MODEL/ ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
THU THRU SUN HIGHS/LOWS APPEAR REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN DEC 22 2013
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE CEILINGS ARE GOING TO DO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. POCKET OF VFR CONDITIONS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE
SNOW BAND AND IS OVER BOTH TAF SITES. HOWEVER...OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST...LARGE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EXPECT THAT
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN THAT THE CEILINGS SHOULD GO DOWN
TO MVFR AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST THAT WAY. FOR THE MOST
PART...EXPECT THE VISIBILITY TO REMAIN VFR DESPITE HAVING LIGHT SNOW
FALLING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 22.16Z RAP INDICATES
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE LIGHT SNOW TO
EXTEND FROM ABOUT THE TWIN CITIES INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN STAYING
NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ086-094.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
IAZ008-009-018-019.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1128 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING HAS BEEN WITH WHETHER OR NOT A TIER
OF COUNTIES NEEDS TO BE ADDED ONTO THE CURRENT ADVISORY/WARNING.
CURRENTLY...SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN FALLING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SOME WEAK 280-290K
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. BEFORE
WE SEE ANY SNOW DEVELOP LOCALLY...THE DRY LAYER BETWEEN 800-600MB
WILL HAVE TO SATURATE OUT. THE 22.01 RAP RH FIELDS SHOW SOME
INCREASING RH IN THAT COLUMN COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH AROUND AND AFTER 6Z. THIS COINCIDES FAIRLY WELL WITH WHAT
22.00Z HRRR REFLECTIVITY GRAPHICS SHOW WITH THE SNOW MOVING UP
INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AROUND/AFTER 6Z.
BASED ON THE PATH OF THE 500MB VORT MAX THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND THE CURRENT HEAVY SNOW THAT IS FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KANSAS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH IN THE HEAVY SNOW THAT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE 2AM TO 10AM
TIME FRAME IS WHEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL COME THROUGH WITH SOME
1...MAYBE 2...INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND.
FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...THE 22.00Z AND PRIOR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT A SECONDARY DEFORMATION BAND SETTING UP ALONG THE
ADVISORY COUNTIES AND POSSIBLE JUST TO THE WEST OF IT. THIS LIFT
IS COMING IN THE 500-300MB LEVELS AND IS OVER THE DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600MB...SO THERE IS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE DRY
LAYER WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY SNOW/ICE FROM MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND. 22.01Z RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DRY LAYER WINNING OUT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE BRIEFLY SATURATING UP
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO FINALLY OCCUR TOWARD DAYBREAK.
DUE TO THE SHORT LENGTH OF WHEN THIS SNOW COULD FALL...HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT ADVISORY...BUT WILL
UP THE TOTALS AN INCH OR TWO FROM CHARLES CITY IOWA NORTH
NORTHEAST TOWARD BLACK RIVER FALLS WISCONSIN FOR WHERE IT LOOKS
LIKE THIS BAND COULD SET UP. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH DOWNSTREAM
OBS FOR WHETHER ANY FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS NEED TO BE MADE TO THIS
AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...WINTER STORM TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT/SUN...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES SUN NIGHT.
DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ARKANSAS. PER WV IMAGERY...
SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND COULD BE SEEN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS TX AT MID-DAY.
UPPER MIDWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TODAY...WITH GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850MB. MID-DAY TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
21.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITHOUT LARGE ERRORS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A TIGHTER/COMMON CONSENSUS THRU SUN
NIGHT...TOWARD THE EARLIER ECMWF/CAN-GEM RUNS. THIS AS THE AZ/
NORTHERN MEX/WEST TX SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEAST
TONIGHT/SUN TO WESTERN QUEBEC BY 00Z MON...AND ENERGY OVER BC/ALB
CARVES OUT A RATHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE REGION LATER SUN NIGHT.
MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT DO REMAIN IMPACT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT/SUNDAY.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED MODELS ALL REASONABLE ON
THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV IMAGERY...
MODELS ALL APPEAR GOOD WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
BLEND OF THE MODELS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE 12-18Z PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC TROUGH/FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LOW THRU OHIO VALLEY. WITH MODELS TRENDING MORE SIMILAR...
TOWARD A TIGHTER COMPROMISE SOLUTION...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE SNOW AMOUNT DIFFERENCES...AND A SLIGHT TREND
TOWARD DRIER/LESS SNOW...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS SHY OF GOOD
THIS CYCLE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION TO ABOUT
800MB AND CLOUD TOP TEMPS IN THE -5C TO -10C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
FALLING PRESSURES/DIVERGENCE ALOFT STARTING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA...PROVIDING A LITTLE LIFT TO THE LOWER LEVELS AND GETTING FEW
REPORTS OF -FZDZ. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING IT TAKES THRU MUCH OF
THE EVENING FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE FOR ICE IN THE LOWER CLOUD/
MOISTURE LAYER. AVIATION FORECASTER DID ADD MENTION OF -FZDZ WITH
THE -SN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE EVENING.
VIGOROUS TX SHORTWAVE LIFTS TO NEAR THE IA/MO/IL INTERSECTION BY
12Z SUN...WHILE THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE VICINITY OF NORTHWEST OH.
850MB LOW LIFTS ACROSS MO TO NEAR OR EAST OF CHICAGO BY 12Z SUN.
ON THIS TRACK...MUCH OF THE STRONGER/DEEPER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-
DYNAMIC FORCING JUST CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA.
BULK OF THE FORCING/LIFT TO PASS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
WILL BE FROM UPPER LEVEL PV ADVECTION/DIVERGENCE/LIFT AHEAD OF THE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AT LEAST SEMI-
COUPLED JET MAXES. PLENTY OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR BEING LIFTED NORTH
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH DYNAMICS/LIFT AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH
PRODUCING ABUNDANT CONVECTION/PRECIP NEAR THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT
ACROSS THE MID MS TO OH VALLEYS. THE SLIGHT DROP IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT/SUN MAY BE TIED TO THIS WALL OF
CONVECTION ROBBING MUCH OF THE INCOMING MOISTURE BEFORE IT WOULD
REACH THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/NAM NOW BARELY PRODUCE ENOUGH QPF FOR
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
WHILE CAN-GEM STILL HOLDS ONTO WARNING/ADVISORY AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA. WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT
ABOVE 850MB AND EVEN 700MB...AND VERTICAL MOTIONS NOT OVERLY
STRONG EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA...HAVING A
HARD TIME SEEING SNOW-WATER RATIOS IN THE 15 TO 20 TO 1 RANGED TO
PRODUCE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT...BUT LEFT THEM IN RANGES TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT ADVISORIES/
WARNINGS...WHICH WILL BE LEFT AS FOR NOW. TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING OF
NEW SNOW WILL ADD THAT TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR LATER
TONIGHT/MUCH OF SUNDAY.
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS DURING THE MORNING WITH
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNING TO THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPPING
TOWARD THE AREA. STRONG HGT FALLS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN/
SUN NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG PV ADVECTION AND DIVERGENCE/
LIFT ALOFT. MUCH COLDER COLUMN OVER THE AREA BY SUN NIGHT WITH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE LOWER...IN THE 850-700MB RANGE. INCREASING
MODEL SIGNAL/CONSENSUS FOR THE FEATURE TO PRODUCE 1 TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA SUN
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND RAISED SNOW CHANCES THESE PERIODS INTO THE 70-80
PERCENT RANGE OVER THAT PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. USED THE MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS/HIGHS TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...PLENTY OF
CLOUDS THRU SUN NIGHT AND BY LATER TONIGHT STRONGER GRADIENT SFC
WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW
CHANCES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.
21.12Z MODELS IN IMPROVING AGREEMENT AS THE DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THEN HGTS RISING QUICKLY WITH ITS
PASSAGE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING IN MON NIGHT. CONSENSUS
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY PASSES TUE...
THEN THE NEXT STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION AND
SENDS MID LEVEL HGTS CRASHING AGAIN. TREND THRU THE PERIOD FAVORS
STRONGER/SLOWER OF THE EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE MON THRU
TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE.
PLENTY OF SFC-600MB MOISTURE...A COLD COLUMN...DEEP/TIGHT CYCLONIC
CONVERGENCE AND A SFC TROUGH COMBINE TO CONTINUE WRINGING OUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ON MON...RAISED -SN CHANCE
TO THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. -SN
CHANCES WANE MON AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF THE 700-500MB TROUGH
AXIS. RATHER SHARP SFC-700MB RIDGE AXIS AND SUBSIDENCE WITHIN IT
BUILDING EAST LATE MON/MON NIGHT SHOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS
BUT WITH THE SLOWING TREND AMONG THE MODELS...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT OVER THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA. MORE CLOUDS
FOR MORE OF THE NIGHT MON NIGHT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON LOW TEMPS.
WARMER MODEL CONSENSUS LOWS MON ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE
FCST AREA LOOK GOOD. ANY SHOT AT CLEAR SKIES/SOME SUNSHINE APPEAR
SHORT LIVED AS SFC-700MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES QUICKLY WITH INCREASING
LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION ON TUE. GIVEN THE DEPTH/
STRENGTH OF THE UPWARD MOTION AND MOISTURE INCREASE SIGNAL...-SN
CHANCES MOVE QUICKLY BACK INTO THE FCST AREA TUE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS...RAISED -SN CHANCES INTO THE 40-60 PERCENT
RANGE FOR TUE NIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKING
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. USED A BLEND
OF THE NUMERICAL TEMPS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS MON-TUE NIGHT.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
21.00S AND 21.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A
RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON WED WITH AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. GOOD CONSENSUS FOR BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NOAM FRI/SAT...
WITH PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES ON SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. SOME CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER/TRACKABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT. ALL IN ALL...DAY 4-7
FCST IS AVERAGE.
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS IN THE FCST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY/WED NIGHT. THE MAIN
LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT FROM THE TUE
NIGHT SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE AREA WED MORNING...WITH
DECREASING -SN CHANCES THRU THE DAY. GFS/ECMWF THEN DROP A RATHER
VIGOROUS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT. SOUNDINGS/X-
SECTIONS SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN FOR THIS LIFT TO
WRING OUT SOME -SN...EVEN WITH LESSER LOW LEVEL SUPPORT/LIFT AND
LOWER OVERALL PW VALUES. APPEARS THE AREA GETS A BREAK FROM THE
PRECIP/-SN BY LATER THU AND FOR FRI AS HGTS RISE A BIT AND A
LARGER/DRY/COLD SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS HIGH MOVES EAST RATHER QUICKLY FRI. A MDT/STRONG ROUND OF LOWER
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SPREAD INTO/ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRI THRU
SAT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN THIS
FLOW APPEARS DELAYED INTO FRI NIGHT/SAT. MAY YET NEED A -SN CHANCE
AGAIN BY SAT BUT WILL STAY WITH THE DRY MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR
NOW UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL IS SEEN. TEMPS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
WED-SAT WITH THE AREA UNDER THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE LARGER/COLD HIGH FOR THU/FRI. MODEL/
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE SNOW THAT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND HOW
LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
MVFR...BUT WILL DROP TO IFR ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LSE HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING THE LOWER VISIBILITY
SNOW WITH THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE HALF TO 2 MILE RANGE
DOWN IN IOWA UPSTREAM FROM LSE. EXPECT THAT THE MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR SEEING THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 11-14Z WITH THE
MODERATE SNOW ENDING BY LATE MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AT
LSE/RST...SO KEPT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ034-041-042-
053.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ043-044-054-
055-061.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ010-011-019.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR IAZ029-030.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2013
...Updated for long term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
At 00z Tuesday a -31c 500mb trough was located over southern
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. An upper level ridge
axis was located downstream of this 500mb trough, and extended
from Wyoming into southwest Manitoba. Across the Central Plains a
northwest flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb level. A 850mb
temperature gradient at 00z Tuesday was located across western
Nebraska and central Kansas. 850mb temperatures earlier this
evening ranged from -19c at Omaha and -16c at Topeka to -8c at
North Platte, -4c at Dodge City, and +2c at Amarillo. At the
surface an area of high pressure was located across eastern Kansas
and a trough of low pressure was located across eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the lee
of the Rockies early today as an upper level trough, which was
located over the Pacific Northwest at 00z Tuesday, approaches the
Rockies. By late day/early evening this upper level trough will
cross the Rockies and move out into the plains. At this time given
the track of this upper trough, the 00z NAM and GFS model
soundings indicating only mid level moisture will accompany this
upper level disturbance, and given the dry layer forecast to be
present in the 850mb-700mb level the chances for precipitation
still appears small. Increasing clouds however can be expected
which may initially limit the cooling early tonight behind a cold
front that will be crossing western Kansas. Still given some
clearing behind this upper trough after midnight the lows tonight
should still fall back into the teens by early Christmas day.
Colder temperatures overnight will be over the snow pack from
roughly Larned to Minneola.
As for temperatures today, westerly downslope flow will improve
and 850mb temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front are
forecast to range from 5c to near 10c during the afternoon across
western Kansas. This continues to suggest afternoon temperatures
climbing in the lower 50s for areas that did not receive snow over
the past weekend. Will however trim a few degrees off from these
warm 850mb mix down temperatures in north central Kansas given the
increase in cloud cover late today. In areas that continue to have
snow on the ground will stay close to the previous forecast with
highs today only in the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
The large scale pattern through Friday will be characterized by
mid to high level flow from the eastern pacific into southwest
Canada and the northern Rockies. At the surface, pressures
will generally be falling in this pattern due to the increased
low to mid level cross mountain flow, leading to fairly mild
maximum temperatures at least 1 standard deviation above average.
This means highs in the 50s, except for the areas that received
heavy snow on December 21st, which may stay 5 to 15 degrees cooler
depending on how fast the snow melts.
By Saturday through Monday, the upper level flow will amplify again,
leading to mid level flow more parallel to the Rockies and directed
over land from western Canada into the northern and central plains.
This will lead to a cold air surge at low levels into the plains,
although not as cold as some of the airmasses we have experienced
already this cold season. Highs by Sunday will fall back into the
30s, with lows falling back into the teens.
The global models that go out beyond 7 days (ECMWF, GFS and GEM)
indicate some degree of upper level troughing approaching the
plains around January 1st. The GFS is the most amplified, the ECMWF
in the middle and the GEM the weakest. Therefore, some sort of
precipitation event cannot be ruled out, and precipitation type is
also in question.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Low status and patchy freezing fog had developed earlier this
evening as a southeast wind developed. SREF and HRRR were both in
decent agreement with keeping the IFR/low MVFR status around
through at least 12z Tuesday as this south/southeasterly flow
continues. Area more favorable for the lower cigs lasting longer
early this morning will be at HYS and DDC. At GCK the winds are
forecast to veer more to the southwest between 12z and 15z
allowing for some drier air in the lower levels to advect in from
the west. In addition to the low clouds some MVFR/IFR visibilities
will also be possible, mainly in the DDC area through early
Tuesday morning. Given the low level winds from the NAM BUFR
soundings do not think widespread dense freezing fog will be an
issue at any taf site.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 15 38 16 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 51 15 47 18 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 52 18 47 22 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 41 17 45 18 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 47 17 46 18 / 10 10 0 0
P28 35 16 39 15 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
136 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2013
...Updated short term discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
At 00z Tuesday a -31c 500mb trough was located over southern
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. An upper level ridge
axis was located downstream of this 500mb trough, and extended
from Wyoming into southwest Manitoba. Across the Central Plains a
northwest flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb level. A 850mb
temperature gradient at 00z Tuesday was located across western
Nebraska and central Kansas. 850mb temperatures earlier this
evening ranged from -19c at Omaha and -16c at Topeka to -8c at
North Platte, -4c at Dodge City, and +2c at Amarillo. At the
surface an area of high pressure was located across eastern Kansas
and a trough of low pressure was located across eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the lee
of the Rockies early today as an upper level trough, which was
located over the Pacific Northwest at 00z Tuesday, approaches the
Rockies. By late day/early evening this upper level trough will
cross the Rockies and move out into the plains. At this time given
the track of this upper trough, the 00z NAM and GFS model
soundings indicating only mid level moisture will accompany this
upper level disturbance, and given the dry layer forecast to be
present in the 850mb-700mb level the chances for precipitation
still appears small. Increasing clouds however can be expected
which may initially limit the cooling early tonight behind a cold
front that will be crossing western Kansas. Still given some
clearing behind this upper trough after midnight the lows tonight
should still fall back into the teens by early Christmas day.
Colder temperatures overnight will be over the snow pack from
roughly Larned to Minneola.
As for temperatures today, westerly downslope flow will improve
and 850mb temperatures ahead of the approaching cold front are
forecast to range from 5c to near 10c during the afternoon across
western Kansas. This continues to suggest afternoon temperatures
climbing in the lower 50s for areas that did not receive snow over
the past weekend. Will however trim a few degrees off from these
warm 850mb mix down temperatures in north central Kansas given the
increase in cloud cover late today. In areas that continue to have
snow on the ground will stay close to the previous forecast with
highs today only in the 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Tuesday night will begin with a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas. Some of the snowpack will remain from Sat-Sun`s snow storm,
and temperatures will show cold bias in the eastern sections of our
CWA, in the Larned, Stafford, and Pawnee counties, where 14 to 15
inches of snow fell and will slow to melt. Mostly clear skies are
anticipated through the day 5.5 forecast, with clouds moving in next
Sunday. Wednesday will see an east to west temperature gradient,
with MaxT`s ranging from around 33F degrees in St. John to 38F
degrees in Dodge City, to 47F degrees near the Colorado border.
This same temperature pattern will exist from Wednesday into
Saturday, rising to the 43F degree to 56F degree range by both
Friday and Saturday. Winds will basically be from the west or
northwest and not over the 10 to 20 mph range. At night, winds will
tend to drop off to less than 10 mph, allowing the mercury to fall
significantly. Lows on Wednesday will dip into the teens to near
12F degrees in the deepest snow between Kinsley and Larned, and
range upward to around 21F degrees near Hays and Liberal. Lows will
increase each day through Saturday and Sunday mornings, leveling off
in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees by Sat.
On Sunday, both the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting an arctic
outbreak of cold air to plunge south through the plains and invade
central Kansas Sunday afternoon. Clouds will increase to cloudy and
probably be thick stratus. We could have another non-diurnal
temperature pattern on Sunday, with highs occurring in the mid day,
then falling in the afternoon. Since Sunday is day 7, will not put
the hourly temps in the grids, but it may be something we have to
watch as the Sunday period approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Low status and patchy freezing fog had developed earlier this
evening as a southeast wind developed. SREF and HRRR were both in
decent agreement with keeping the IFR/low MVFR status around
through at least 12z Tuesday as this south/southeasterly flow
continues. Area more favorable for the lower cigs lasting longer
early this morning will be at HYS and DDC. At GCK the winds are
forecast to veer more to the southwest between 12z and 15z
allowing for some drier air in the lower levels to advect in from
the west. In addition to the low clouds some MVFR/IFR visibilities
will also be possible, mainly in the DDC area through early
Tuesday morning. Given the low level winds from the NAM BUFR
soundings do not think widespread dense freezing fog will be an
issue at any taf site.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 39 15 38 16 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 51 15 45 18 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 52 18 47 22 / 0 10 0 0
LBL 41 17 45 18 / 10 0 0 0
HYS 47 17 44 18 / 10 10 0 0
P28 35 16 39 15 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1121 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2013
...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
At 00z Tuesday a -31c 500mb trough was located over southern
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. An upper level ridge
axis was located downstream of this 500mb trough, and extended
from Wyoming into southwest Manitoba. Across the Central Plains a
northwest flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb level. A 850mb
temperature gradient at 00z Tuesday was located across western
Nebraska and central Kansas. 850mb temperatures earlier this
evening ranged from -19c at Omaha and -16c at Topeka to -8c at
North Platte, -4c at Dodge City, and +2c at Amarillo. At the
surface an area of high pressure was located across eastern Kansas
and a trough of low pressure was located across eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Tonight:
Low level stratus is expected to be pretty much gone by this afternoon,
however, there still will be some mid to high level clouds that will
stick around through the overnight. These clouds are ahead of a synoptic
system coming out of the northern Rockies and eventually across the
Central/Northern Plains tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast will remain
free of precipitation through the overnight hours. Minimums will be
in the lower teens (F).
Tomorrow:
The aforementioned synoptic system will result in continuation of scattered
mid to high level clouds tomorrow. The NAM suggests potential for flurries,
but not buying into this solution, as low levels are fairly dry and
"warm". Will keep precipitation probabilities at or below 10 percent.
Kind of a moot point anyway, because flurries typically don`t measure
(0.01" or higher). Anyway, there will be a gradient of temperatures
across the forecast area of responsibility. The 23.12Z NAM breaks the
inversion across west-central Kansas and advertises upper 50sF. The
rest of the mesoscale/global models (WRF, EC, etc) suggest lower maximums.
The ongoing max temp forecast still looks on track and will continue
as is. Farther east, deep snowpack will have a meso-alpha perhaps beta
influence on temperatures with values struggling to get higher than
the freezing mark, if that.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Tuesday night will begin with a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas. Some of the snowpack will remain from Sat-Sun`s snow storm,
and temperatures will show cold bias in the eastern sections of our
CWA, in the Larned, Stafford, and Pawnee counties, where 14 to 15
inches of snow fell and will slow to melt. Mostly clear skies are
anticipated through the day 5.5 forecast, with clouds moving in next
Sunday. Wednesday will see an east to west temperature gradient,
with MaxT`s ranging from around 33F degrees in St. John to 38F
degrees in Dodge City, to 47F degrees near the Colorado border.
This same temperature pattern will exist from Wednesday into
Saturday, rising to the 43F degree to 56F degree range by both
Friday and Saturday. Winds will basically be from the west or
northwest and not over the 10 to 20 mph range. At night, winds will
tend to drop off to less than 10 mph, allowing the mercury to fall
significantly. Lows on Wednesday will dip into the teens to near
12F degrees in the deepest snow between Kinsley and Larned, and
range upward to around 21F degrees near Hays and Liberal. Lows will
increase each day through Saturday and Sunday mornings, leveling off
in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees by Sat.
On Sunday, both the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting an arctic
outbreak of cold air to plunge south through the plains and invade
central Kansas Sunday afternoon. Clouds will increase to cloudy and
probably be thick stratus. We could have another non-diurnal
temperature pattern on Sunday, with highs occurring in the mid day,
then falling in the afternoon. Since Sunday is day 7, will not put
the hourly temps in the grids, but it may be something we have to
watch as the Sunday period approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Low status and patchy freezing fog had developed earlier this
evening as a southeast wind developed. SREF and HRRR were both in
decent agreement with keeping the IFR/low MVFR status around
through at least 12z Tuesday as this south/southeasterly flow
continues. Area more favorable for the lower cigs lasting longer
early this morning will be at HYS and DDC. At GCK the winds are
forecast to veer more to the southwest between 12z and 15z
allowing for some drier air in the lower levels to advect in from
the west. In addition to the low clouds some MVFR/IFR visibilities
will also be possible, mainly in the DDC area through early
Tuesday morning. Given the low level winds from the NAM BUFR
soundings do not think widespread dense freezing fog will be an
issue at any taf site.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 11 39 16 38 / 20 10 10 0
GCK 12 49 17 45 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 15 49 19 47 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 11 45 20 45 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 11 43 20 44 / 0 10 10 0
P28 10 35 15 39 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1116 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2013
...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
At 00z Tuesday a -31c 500mb trough was located over southern
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. An upper level ridge
axis was located downstream of this 500mb trough, and extended
from Wyoming into southwest Manitoba. Across the Central Plains a
northwest flow was present at the 700mb and 500mb level. A 850mb
temperature gradient at 00z Tuesday was located across western
Nebraska and central Kansas. 850mb temperatures earlier this
evening ranged from -19c at Omaha and -16c at Topeka to -8c at
North Platte, -4c at Dodge City, and +2c at Amarillo. At the
surface an area of high pressure was located across eastern Kansas
and a trough of low pressure was located across eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Tonight:
Low level stratus is expected to be pretty much gone by this afternoon,
however, there still will be some mid to high level clouds that will
stick around through the overnight. These clouds are ahead of a synoptic
system coming out of the northern Rockies and eventually across the
Central/Northern Plains tomorrow. Otherwise, the forecast will remain
free of precipitation through the overnight hours. Minimums will be
in the lower teens (F).
Tomorrow:
The aforementioned synoptic system will result in continuation of scattered
mid to high level clouds tomorrow. The NAM suggests potential for flurries,
but not buying into this solution, as low levels are fairly dry and
"warm". Will keep precipitation probabilities at or below 10 percent.
Kind of a moot point anyway, because flurries typically don`t measure
(0.01" or higher). Anyway, there will be a gradient of temperatures
across the forecast area of responsibility. The 23.12Z NAM breaks the
inversion across west-central Kansas and advertises upper 50sF. The
rest of the mesoscale/global models (WRF, EC, etc) suggest lower maximums.
The ongoing max temp forecast still looks on track and will continue
as is. Farther east, deep snowpack will have a meso-alpha perhaps beta
influence on temperatures with values struggling to get higher than
the freezing mark, if that.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Tuesday night will begin with a northwest flow aloft over western
Kansas. Some of the snowpack will remain from Sat-Sun`s snow storm,
and temperatures will show cold bias in the eastern sections of our
CWA, in the Larned, Stafford, and Pawnee counties, where 14 to 15
inches of snow fell and will slow to melt. Mostly clear skies are
anticipated through the day 5.5 forecast, with clouds moving in next
Sunday. Wednesday will see an east to west temperature gradient,
with MaxT`s ranging from around 33F degrees in St. John to 38F
degrees in Dodge City, to 47F degrees near the Colorado border.
This same temperature pattern will exist from Wednesday into
Saturday, rising to the 43F degree to 56F degree range by both
Friday and Saturday. Winds will basically be from the west or
northwest and not over the 10 to 20 mph range. At night, winds will
tend to drop off to less than 10 mph, allowing the mercury to fall
significantly. Lows on Wednesday will dip into the teens to near
12F degrees in the deepest snow between Kinsley and Larned, and
range upward to around 21F degrees near Hays and Liberal. Lows will
increase each day through Saturday and Sunday mornings, leveling off
in the mid 20s to around 30F degrees by Sat.
On Sunday, both the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting an arctic
outbreak of cold air to plunge south through the plains and invade
central Kansas Sunday afternoon. Clouds will increase to cloudy and
probably be thick stratus. We could have another non-diurnal
temperature pattern on Sunday, with highs occurring in the mid day,
then falling in the afternoon. Since Sunday is day 7, will not put
the hourly temps in the grids, but it may be something we have to
watch as the Sunday period approaches.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
Low status and areas of freezing fog had developed earlier this
evening as a southeast wind developed. SREF and HRRR were both in
decent agreement with keeping the IFR/low MVFR status around
through at least 12z Tuesday as this south/southeasterly flow continues.
Area more favorable for the lower cigs lasting longer early this
morning will be at HYS and DDC. At GCK the winds are forecast to
veer more to the southwest between 12z and 15z allowing for some drier
air in the lower levels to advect in from the west. In addition to
the low clouds some MVFR/IFR visibilities will also be possible,
mainly in the DDC area through early Tuesday morning. Given the
low level winds from the NAM BUFR soundings do not think widespread
dense fog will be an issue at any taf site.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 11 39 16 38 / 20 10 10 0
GCK 12 49 17 45 / 10 10 10 0
EHA 15 49 19 47 / 0 0 10 0
LBL 11 45 20 45 / 20 10 0 0
HYS 11 43 20 44 / 0 10 10 0
P28 10 35 15 39 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1213 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPDATE...IT LOOKS LIKE FREEZING PRECIP HAS GONE OVER TO SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST WHILE THE COAST STILL SHOWED
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR PLAIN RAIN MIXING W/SNOW. THIS IS
MOST EVIDENT FROM THE LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT DRY WEDGE IN THE
MID LEVELS AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THE LLVLS. LAST 3HR TRENDS FROM
THE OBS IN BAR HARBOR SHOW JUST RAIN W/TEMPERATURES AROUND 34F. ANY
FREEZING PRECIP SHOULD MOVE E AN END BY 3 AM. ADJUSTED THE PRECIP
CHANCES TOWARD MORNING DOWN TO 20-30% USING THE HRRR GUIDANCE AS
THE HRRR INDICATED PRECIP SHIELD PULLING OFF THE COAST AND TO THE
E.
COLDER AIR WITH CLRG TO PRTL CLRG SKIES ARE SLATED FOR THE FA
LATE TNGT WITH INCREASING NW WINDS. A SIG NW BREEZE IS LIKELY TO
CONT ON TUE...WITH POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER DAMAGE IN
THE MAX ICE ACCRETION ZONE DOWNEAST IN THE ABSENCE OF ANNY
MELTING...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
DUE TO MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN ON TUE...HI TEMPS TUE WILL
ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES AT BEST FROM OVRNGT LOWS UNDER MSLY CLR
TO PTLY CLDY SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR A BITTERLY COLD
CHRISTMAS DAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER.
MORE ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER ON YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER
QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINE VARY CONSIDERABLY LATE THIS EVENING FROM IFR TO VFR. PATCHES
OF LOWER STRATUS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT MAKING THE CEILING FORECAST
A CHALLENGE AND WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK TUE
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR CONTG THRU THE DAY TUE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TUE EVENING IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM: IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO SNOW AND FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS RUNNING AROUND 5 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF
LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONT WITH SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR THE OUTER
WATERS INTO TUE AFTN BASED ON BLENDED FCST WW3/SWAN NAM/SWAN GFS
WV HTS WHICH ALSO HAD TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS BY 1 TO 2 FT THRU
TNGT GIVEN THE LATEST LOW BIAS COMPARED TO BUOY OBS.
SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON CHRISTMAS DAY FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS 5-7 FEET THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1227 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 5H TROUGH
SLOWLY PUSHING E ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THIS TROUGH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL TRANSITION TO Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE THIS EVENING. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS NE WIND PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR IMPACTING MAINLY FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MI. A
FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE BANDS HAVE PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOW. LES HAS BEEN VERY FLUFFY WITH SNOW RATIOS 40-50/1.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONTINUING LES EVENT FOR FAR WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISHING LES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS
MORE INTENSE LES BANDS AND THUS GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
ERN HALF OF MQT COUNTY INTO PERHAPS WRN ALGER COUNTY. GIVEN
EXPECTATION OF CONTINUING LES ACCUMULATION INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING
HRS WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR GOGEBIC-ONTONAGON AND MQT-BARAGA
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
LES SHOULD GENERALLY BE WINDING DOWN BY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
HRS WITH Q-VECT DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA AND WEAKENING WIND
FIELDS. LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE MAY STRENGTHEN DUE TO WEAKENING WINDS
AND DEVELOPING LAND BREEZES TO ALLOW MORE LOCALLY INTENSE LES BANDS
TO FORM AND PERHAPS EVEN A MESOLOW OR TWO OFF THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER MQT BAY AS DEPICTED BY LOCAL AND REGIONAL
MESOSCALE MODELS. HOWEVER...WINDS BACKING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF ADVANCING SFC RDG AXIS SHOULD KEEP LES BANDS OR
MESOLOW FEATURES MOVING ENOUGH EASTWARD TO EFFECTIVELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS WHERE THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS LINGER. COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR
EAST AND INTERIOR WEST SECTIONS. THE WRN INTERIOR ALONG THE WI BDR
WITH LIKELY SEE A FEW LOCATIONS PLUMMET TO 10 BELOW OR COLDER WHERE
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER LUCE COUNTY COULD ALSO DIP NEAR 10 BELOW
ZERO. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE BETTER PERFORMING CANADIAN
REGIONAL GEM AND ECMWF FOR MIN TEMPS.
TUESDAY...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LINGERING LAKE EFFECT OVER
NCNTRL CWA WILL BE PUSHED OUT OVR SOUTH CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME SSW AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
SFC TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. MAY BE ABLE TO SNEAK IN SOME
SUNSHINE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY AFTN BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS
START INCREASING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION SSW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 00Z WED. NAM ALSO SHOWS A
CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA 00Z WED. BOTH THE LOW AND
THE TROUGH MOVE TO THE EAST WITH THE REMAINS OF THE LOW HELPING TO
DIG A DEEP UPPER TROUGH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED. NAM SHOWS
SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE CWA WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE TUE NIGHT LASTING INTO WED BEFORE BOTH MOVE OUT WED NIGHT
INTO THU. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ABOUT THE SAME THING.
DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM COMES IN FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND WILL HAVE SOME LAKE
MICHIGAN LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER THE ERN CWA WHICH WAS ALREADY COVERED
IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COULD SEE UP TO 8 INCHES IN ERN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A BIT THOUGH EACH DAY FOR LOWS AND HIGHS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU AS THE TEMPERATURES SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM CONSIDERING
THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
12Z SAT WHICH WILL MEAN A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS STARTING. A BROAD
500 MB TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z SUN AND INTO
MONDAY WITH COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN RULE FOR MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GOING BACK BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SAT AND THIS WOULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LINGERING LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN ON
LIGHT NRLY WINDS. EXPECT CIGS AND VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
TONIGHT AT IWD AND TUE MORNING AT CMX AND SAW AS LAKE EFFECT COMES
TO AN ENDS WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST MON DEC 23 2013
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM OVER THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT
MORE IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...SOUTH WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED
THEN...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE. WINDS DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004-005.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AT LEAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE STATE. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN PERSISTED THERE UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT DURING THE MORNING THE MORE MOIST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR...
MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MOVES INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE
STATE. THE HRRR WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...AND WITH THE
DIMINISHING MOISTURE NOTED ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...THAT MUCH OF THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY AROUND 12Z. WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FOR THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN WILL SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES LESS THAN SLIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...MAKING
THE CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT
REMOTE. TOO MUCH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS FORECAST...COINCIDENT WITH DRY
AIR TO OUR WEST AS NOTED ON THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS. EVEN THE
TREND IS DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH EXPECT LINGERING
STRATOCU INTO THE MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING
THAT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S KNOTS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BACKING MORE
NORTHWEST WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL BE FALLING DURING
THE DAY...BUT THEIR VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE BUT
WITH ONLY MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES...FOR HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MOSTLY BELOW A QUARTER-INCH AND K INDICES HIGHLY
NEGATIVE. DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS MOVE IN AS WELL. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS ARE DRY...SUGGESTIVE OF CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
20S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...NEARER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED VALUES
BASED ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
APPROACH OF A JET AXIS ALOFT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THE NAM IS
CERTAINLY DRIER THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT
AND LOWERS PRESSURES MORE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE...SHOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO ENCROACH ON CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY MORE OPAQUE SOUTH. WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TRIAD AND NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH A BLEND IN THE MIDDLE INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE
AND KRWI...AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY. THIS
RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TOWARD KTDF...25 TO 30 OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND MID 20S IN BETWEEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER ON ITS HEELS. MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE NC/SC COAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT FRONT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INLAND AND THUS DONT PRODUCE ANY QPF OVER THE RAH CWA.
CIRRUS SHOULD BE RATHER ABUNDANT...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH THE PASSING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE MODERATION OF
TEMPS....THOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH SEASONAL NORMS...48-52.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 26-31.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DOMINATED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE NAO/AO PHASES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAINED SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING A BIT...INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...
BEFORE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD...
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS
EARLY MORNING...WITH KRWI LIKELY THE LAST TAF SITE TO BECOME VFR
AROUND 12Z...COINCIDENT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. WHILE THE NAM MODEL DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...EVEN THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST BROKEN VFR-LEVEL CEILINGS ENDING BY
AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY...WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S KNOTS AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. BASED ON
THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
OTHER GUIDANCE APPEARS DRIER AS OF THIS WRITING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
256 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AT LEAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE STATE. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN PERSISTED THERE UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT DURING THE MORNING THE MORE MOIST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR...
MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MOVES INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE
STATE. THE HRRR WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...AND WITH THE
DIMINISHING MOISTURE NOTED ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...THAT MUCH OF THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY AROUND 12Z. WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FOR THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN WILL SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES LESS THAN SLIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...MAKING
THE CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT
REMOTE. TOO MUCH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS FORECAST...COINCIDENT WITH DRY
AIR TO OUR WEST AS NOTED ON THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS. EVEN THE
TREND IS DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH EXPECT LINGERING
STRATOCU INTO THE MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING
THAT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S KNOTS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BACKING MORE
NORTHWEST WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL BE FALLING DURING
THE DAY...BUT THEIR VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE BUT
WITH ONLY MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES...FOR HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MOSTLY BELOW A QUARTER-INCH AND K INDICES HIGHLY
NEGATIVE. DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS MOVE IN AS WELL. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS ARE DRY...SUGGESTIVE OF CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
20S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...NEARER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED VALUES
BASED ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
APPROACH OF A JET AXIS ALOFT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THE NAM IS
CERTAINLY DRIER THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT
AND LOWERS PRESSURES MORE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE...SHOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO ENCROACH ON CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY MORE OPAQUE SOUTH. WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TRIAD AND NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH A BLEND IN THE MIDDLE INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE
AND KRWI...AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY. THIS
RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TOWARD KTDF...25 TO 30 OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND MID 20S IN BETWEEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM MONDAY...
ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA EARLY IN
THE DAY WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE COAST...EXITING NE OF THE CAROLINAS
BY MID-EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF I-95...SO WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WILL LIKELY
KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID-UPR 40S.
THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER US THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR
WEATHER AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING HIGH. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT ANY RAIN WITH THE FRONT
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FROPA ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE TRIAD...
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THIS
EARLY MORNING...WITH KRWI LIKELY THE LAST TAF SITE TO BECOME VFR
AROUND 12Z...COINCIDENT WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST. WHILE THE NAM MODEL DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS FASTER THAN THE
GFS...EVEN THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST BROKEN VFR-LEVEL CEILINGS ENDING BY
AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY...WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S KNOTS AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. BASED ON
THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
OTHER GUIDANCE APPEARS DRIER AS OF THIS WRITING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1232 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY...MAINTAINING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM MONDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...AND NOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS...HAVING PUSHED EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE THIS
EVENING OR EARLY ON DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE HOURS. THE POST COLD
FRONTAL SENSIBLE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FA WILL EXPERIENCE A WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE VEERING TO THE NW-N AT 5 TO 15 MPH...COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER DEWPOINTS. LATEST PROGS CONTINUE
WITH POST-FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYLIGHT TUESDAY B4 FINALLY BEING PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE FROM A PROGRESSIVE UPPER S/W TROF. OVERNITE LOWS HAVE
BEEN TWEAKED...WITH MINS OCCURRING AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...A DRIER COLUMN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE COAST. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING...BUT RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME AND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE
H85-H5 LAYER. THUS THE TREND FOR TUESDAY IS CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THE RECENT WARM SPELL. COLDER
AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S) WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LEADING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE
40S FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER MINS...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER
UNEVENTFUL WITH THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTING A MODEST
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND MODEST RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE THERE WILL BE TWO FRONTS THAT MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THAT WILL ONLY SERVE TO RESET ANY TEMPERATURE
MODIFICATION.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
AS THE COLD AIR MASS THAT FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT LINGERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY VIA AIRMASS MODIFICATION. THIS BRIEF WARMUP IS
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS MONDAY. THE TRENDS ARE
RATHER CONSISTENT AND THE CONSOLATION IS THAT THE WILD TEMPERATURE
SWINGS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST FEW WEEKS ARE AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY A THING OF THE PAST.
FINALLY THE ONLY POPS IN THE FORECAST ARE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
FROM WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT SKIRTS THE AREA. THE SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH PATTERN SEEMS TO HAVE DISAPPEARED. REGARDLESS OF THE FORCING
MECHANISMS...POPS REMAIN LOW AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL THE TERMINALS. KFLO/KMYR
SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO CIGS...BECOMING VFR IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING. THERE IS A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SCATTER OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING. NW-N WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. VFR WITH LIGHT N WINDS AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM MONDAY...SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ILM NC WATERS
THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. SCEC HAS REPLACED THE SCA FOR THE ILM SC
WATERS...AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU 7 AM TUESDAY.
SW-WSW AROUND 15 KT LATE THIS EVENING...WILL VEER TO THE NW
AROUND 15 KT IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
FURTHER VEER TO THE NORTH AT 10-20 KT DURING THE PRE-DAWN TUE
HOURS. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR WIND PROGS ILLUSTRATE THIS NICELY.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE GOVERNED BY A 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD SSE
BORDERLINE SWELL...AND A 10 SECOND PERIOD SE GROUND SWELL.
COMBINED WITH LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND DRIVEN WAVES...SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FT FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...AND
4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS. THE 7 FOOTERS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AREAL COVERAGE OF SEA FOG
HAS DECREASED...AND WILL FURTHER DECREASE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
ONCE THE POST FRONTAL LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...N TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE WIND WILL VEER TO
THE NE DURING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO
THE VICINITY. THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY WILL RESULT IN A RANGE OF SEAS
THAT WILL BE FETCH LIMITED NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE MOST PART SEAS
WILL APPROACH 5 FT CLOSER TO 20 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM MONDAY...ONCE AGAIN THE CENTRAL THEME FOR THE EXTENDED
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST IS A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. FOR
THURSDAY THE FLOW WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE OF ROGUE GUSTS
OVER 15 POSSIBLE. AS A DRY FRONT MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS. SATURDAY WINDS DROP BACK DOWN TO 10-15
KNOTS...AGAIN FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SPEED TRENDS
WITH 2-4 FEET THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 3-5 FEET FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SRP
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1102 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FORECAST SITES CURRENTLY RESIDE BETWEEN TWO REGION OF LOWER
CEILINGS BOTH TO THE EAST AND WEST. THE EASTERN LOW CLOUDS MAY
BRUSH FAR NW AR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THE TREND WILL
BE TOWARD FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER WEST...MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY NEAR THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR
INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY FOR IMPACTS OK SITES. THIS REGION OF
LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EVENTUALLY PREVAILING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CST MON DEC 23 2013/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE POPS. THE
MAIN VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS THE EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND THE EFFECT ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE RUC KEEPS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA. WAS TEMPTED TO
RAISE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON ANTICIPATED
CLOUDS. HOWEVER... WITH AREAS OF CLEAR SKIES OUT THERE
CURRENTLY... HAVE ENOUGH DOUBT THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
INHIBITED ALL THAT MUCH. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LEFT UNCHANGED. THEREFORE... WILL UPDATE
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 14 40 26 46 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 20 44 26 49 / 10 0 0 10
MLC 17 46 28 49 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 9 40 23 46 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 12 38 24 46 / 10 0 10 10
BYV 11 36 27 46 / 10 0 10 10
MKO 15 43 25 47 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 10 40 25 46 / 10 0 10 10
F10 16 44 27 47 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 21 46 27 50 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1023 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR CHRISTMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
TRICKY NEAR TERM CLOUD COVER FCST TODAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER LONG
ISLAND MOVING EAST QUICKLY AS UPPER TROF INDUCED CLOUDS OVER PA
MOVE EAST. THIS LEAVES A SUNNY PERIOD FOR THE LUNCH HOUR. WITH
CLOUDS COMING QUICKLY BACK FOR THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
USED LATEST HRRR AND NSSL WRF CLOUD FIELDS TO DEPICT THIS IN THE
GRIDS.
COLD FRONT NOW RACING THROUGH WEST CENTRAL PA WITH INSTABILITY
SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR OUR AREA IS SET FOR EARLY
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS SNOW, THOUGH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING
ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY PRESENT ISSUES...SEE SHORT TERM
SECTION.
WITH SUNSHINE...HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WITH MAXES AROUND
40 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /4 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS SIGNIFICANT THIS EVENING WITH SFC TO 950
HPA LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 9 C / KM ALONG WITH NARROW CAPE UP
TO 600 HPA.
THINK WE`RE LOOKING AT SNOW SQUALLS. UNFORTUNATELY, WITH TEMPS
EARLY THIS EVENING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG THE COAST, WE HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR A FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY.
THE UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES ON THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF SNOW.
CURRENTLY, HAVE POPS AT 40% AS THINKING COVERAGE WILL BE AROUND
THIS AMOUNT. TOTALS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS THOUGH COULD RESULT IS A
SERIOUS TRAVEL ISSUE AS TEMPS FALL RAPIDLY ON STRONG NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
PLANNING ON ISSUING AN SPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR REMAINS THROUGH MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY. THE GFS IS TOO
SLOW TO BRING THE ARCTIC AIR IN AND LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER NAM
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS CHRISTMAS DAY. WARM ADVECTION
QUICKLY SETS UP LATE IN THE DAY...HOWEVER TOO LATE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S. TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS NIGHT
POSSIBLY START TO CLIMB.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE REGION SOME CLOUDY SKIES AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAYTIME. THE FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SLIDING EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN RISE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EACH DAY...EXCEPT SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AA TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXITS
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM 21Z TO 03Z. RIGHT NOW...THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS...KSWF...KHPN...AND KISP ARE THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS.
WINDS WILL BACK 30 TO 50 DEGREES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE WINDS WILL THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROF LATER THIS EVENING AND WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 KTS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TONIGHT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
MORNING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 310 MAGNETIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
MORNING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 310 MAGNETIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
MORNING. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 310 MAGNETIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WED...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.THU...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH A SURGE OF ARCTIC COLD AIR THIS EVENING....GUSTS INCREASE TO
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...AND MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH GALE FORCE ON THE
OUTER WATERS WITH THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE COLD AIR. SO WILL LEAVE
THE ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS TONIGHT...AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY JUST FOR TONIGHT. MAY BE A
BIT TOO LONG AS THE COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS
ALOFT DIMINISH. THEN WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY STILL BE AROUND 5 FT
EAST OF MORICHES INLET EARLY IN THE MORNING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH
GUSTS TO THE AREA WATERS. BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA WATERS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 IS
OUT OF SERVICE.
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 IS OUT OF SERVICE.
DURING THE TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TEST OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS DRIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS WINTER. LOWS ARE
APPROACHING 30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL MN WITH 15 BELOW INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND NW WISCONSIN. STUBBORN CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER WAVE OVERHEAD YESTERDAY MORNING WAS STILL CIRCULATING
AROUND ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BECOME SOUTHERLY IN FAR WESTERN MN WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH. THE WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES LOOK GOOD FOR
THIS MORNING WITH THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST DROPPING OUT OF
THE ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA AROUND NOON TODAY...WHICH IS WHEN THE
CURRENT PRODUCTS EXPIRE. FORECAST HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WITH LOWS TONIGHT ONLY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE HIGHS.
OUR NEXT ADVENTURE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS ARE A LITTLE RICHER WITH THE SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY ON THE NAM/GFS 290K THETA SURFACES. WE ARE NOW SEEING 2.5
TO 3.5 G/KG FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG WITH STRONG ADIABATIC OMEGA. THERE IS AN ALIGNMENT OF ABOUT 2
HOURS WHERE MAXIMUM OMEGA IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES
APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR.
THE OVERALL IDEA ON THE SNOW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW PUSHING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN LATE THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN THE 3-4 PM TIME FRAME AND
EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM. THE PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST WORKS OUT TO BE 3 TO 4
INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM REDWOOD FALLS
THROUGH RED WING TO EAU CLAIRE WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES SOUTH OF THIS
LINE. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MN...ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT...AND IN THE
EAU CLAIRE TO LADYSMITH AREAS AROUND 4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONE
CONCERN TODAY AS THAT AS THE SNOW SPREADS INTO WEST CENTRAL MN
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO
A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY IN SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. ON THE
PLUS SIDE...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. HENCE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
I FEEL LIKE I AM BEGINNING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE...BUT
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH OUR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT WEEK...WITH NW FLOW EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE AS WE
MAINTAIN A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ERN PAC AND MEAN TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM
AS THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY DEEPENS/EXPANDS THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...DID MAKE
SOME BIG CHANGES TO POPS IN THE UPWARD DIRECTION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LIKELY POPS NOW INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND 40S
INTRODUCED FOR THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY IS THE RESULT OF A RATHER STRONG
UPPER WAVE DROPPING DOWN ON THE BACK SIDE OF TODAY/S SYSTEM. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5 PVU POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY WORKING DOWN
I-94 DURING THE DAY. TRACK RECORDS FOR WAVES OF THIS STRENGTH SO FAR
THIS MONTH HAS BEEN FOR A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW...AND
WITH THIS EXPECTED...INCREASED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW...BUT LOOKS
GOOD FOR YET ANOTHER HIGH POP/VERY LOW QPF EVENT.
FOR THURSDAY...THE 24.00 MODELS ACTUALLY CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPS...WITH BOTH ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. FOR
THOSE VARIABLES...DID A BLEND OF 00Z GUIDANCE WITH THE GOING
FORECAST TO KEEP FROM HAVING A HUGE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THE BIG
IMPACT OF THIS IS THAT AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
THAN WHAT MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING PREVIOUSLY. IN THE WARM SECTOR
WORKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...THE GFS/NAM ARE SHOWING SFCS DEWPS
UP AROUND 20...WITH SPEC HUMIDITY ON THE 295K SFC UP AROUND 2.5
G/KG. MOST GUIDANCE PAINTS THIS BAND COMING DOWN ALONG/NORTH OF
I-94...SO THIS IS WHERE WE STARTED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF 40 POPS.
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE...THIS WAVE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE A WHOLE WHOPPING 1-2 INCHES OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW.
FROM THE SNOW END OF THINGS...WE ACTUALLY LOOK TO GET A BREAK FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE PLAINS...PUSHING THESE PESKY
NW FLOW WAVES NORTH OF THE MPX AREA. OF COURSE THE ADVANTAGE TO THIS
IS THAT WE WILL HAVE A COUPLE OF BRIEF WARM DAYS FRIDAY AND LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SOME HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR SOUTHERN MN LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH NOT IN THE FORECAST NOW...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT POWERFUL
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR RETURNS. MORE WORRISOME THAN THE LIGHT SNOW
THOUGH ARE THE WINDS THE ECMWF/GEM/GFS SHOW DEVELOPING IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OUT IN WRN AND SRN
MN SUNDAY NIGHT ARE SHOWING MID CHANEL MIXING WINDS OF AROUND 35
KTS...WITH TOP OF THE CHANNEL OF 45 KTS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS COLD AIR
ARRIVES...SO THIS WILL NEED TO WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FOR WHAT COMES BEHIND THIS FRONT...WELL LETS JUST SAY IT/S NOT
PRETTY IF YOU HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF THE ARCTIC AIR! BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK BEING THE COLDEST
STRETCH OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN YET. COULD VERY WELL END UP SEEING A 2
TO 4 DAY STRETCH WHERE MUCH OF THE AREA STRUGGLES TO SEE HIGHS GET
ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS AGAIN GOING DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. ENJOY!
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
IFR CEILINGS HAVE BLOSSOMED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WI...JUST NICKING KRNH WITH KEAU NEARLY IN THE CENTER. RAP 0.5KM
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE SATURATION MOVING NORTHEAST
OF THESE TWO TAFS SITES BY 15Z. MOVEMENT FROM SATELLITE WOULD
SUPPORT THIS TREND. BACK TO THE WEST...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MN/DAKOTA BORDER AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHERE
THE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED WELL BACK IN WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...CEILINGS DROP QUICKLY TO LOW MVFR WITH SOME IFR. FOLLOWED
THE LATEST HOPWRF REFLECTIVITY FORECAST FOR THE TIMING ON BRINGING
THE SNOW INTO THE TAF SITES. THIS WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
SET WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE. MOST SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS POINT
TO A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW AS THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND
ON CHRISTMAS. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS AS THE ARCTIC WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES.
KMSP...
NO CONCERNS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS
ARRIVE. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS IN MODERATE SNOW
FORECAST IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME. SNOW ACCUMULATION REACHING 3
INCHES BY LATE IN THE EVENING WITH THE SNOW TAPERING OF
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 06Z. SE WINDS INCREASING TO 12-15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS LOWERING BELOW 10
KNOTS LATE IN THE EVENING AND VEERING W OVERNIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR WITH -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS W 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. CHANCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN. WINDS S AT 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR MNZ042>045-049>052-057>062-065>069-073>076-082>084-091-
092.
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ043>045-050>053-
059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-091>093.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ041-047-048-054>056-064.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ041-047-
048-054>056-064.
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ042-049-057-058-
065>067-073>075-082-083.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ053-063-070-077-078-085-093.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>028.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
958 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
POTENT VORT MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS MONTANA MOVING
SOUTHEAST.ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WAS A 1010MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OF 1039MB WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
OTHERWISE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ECHOES COMING SOUTHEAST
INTO NW CHERRY COUNTY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY CROSS
SECTIONS OF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH ASOS
REPORTS ARE INCONCLUSIVE. IR SATELLITE AND RAP MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION VECTORS INDICATE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
REGION WHICH THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED WELL. STILL...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME AND CURRENT ECHO COVERAGE
SUPPORTS THAT. IF WEAK CONVECTION IS INDEED A POSSIBILITY...SLEET
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND HENCE MENTION OF SLEET IS INCLUDED FOR
THE NORTHERN MOST FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...FCST REMAINS
CLOSE TO WHERE IT WAS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY AS WARM
AIR SURGES EASTWARD AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MIXING POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION WITH EXISTING SNOW COVER...SO
TEMPS WERE ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. ATTM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NERN WYOMING
PER 09Z SFC ANALYSIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NERN WYOMING INTO NERN NEBRASKA. EAST OF THE
APPG WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES PER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES PER BUFKIT SOUNDING
DATA ARE INDICATIVE OF A VERY SHALLOW...ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ABOVE
THE SUBZERO SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
OF SLEET ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT TO
ALL SNOW. MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES TO BE MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN CWA LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST
POPS IN THESE AREAS. UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV SOLNS
YIELDED QPFS OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH TDY IN THE NORTH...AND
WILL KEEP CORRESPONDING SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. THEN THERE
IS THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
A TIGHT WINDOW OF NEAR ADVISORY WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE COUNTIES
AROUND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE BY EARLY EVENING. DECIDED TO FORGO AN ADVISORY FOR
THE PANHANDLE COUNTIES ATTM AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WINDS ARE
NOT SUPPORTED WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS WINDS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH
EXCEPTION IN THE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 MPH. WITH A
LIGHT BREEZE CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE
FLOW...BUT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PACIFIC AIRMASS
AND DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE
30S TO LOWER 40S CHRISTMAS DAY...TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY FRIDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY...ENTERING NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN FOR AT LEAST WESTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE COLDER AIR
A BIT FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE COLDER GFS SCENARIO SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH MID TO
UPPER 20S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR
THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH CIGS
DROPPING DOWN TO 5000 FT AGL. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 25 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KTS TONIGHT. FOR THE
KVTN TERMINAL...LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH VISBYS DOWN TO
1SM. CIGS WILL LOWER TO 2000 FT AGL BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AT 15 TO 25 KTS TODAY...DECREASING TO 10 TO
15 KTS TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS AT LEAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH WEAK SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES ON THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE STATE. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN PERSISTED THERE UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT DURING THE MORNING THE MORE MOIST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR...
MOVING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MOVES INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE
STATE. THE HRRR WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF...AND WITH THE
DIMINISHING MOISTURE NOTED ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS...THAT MUCH OF THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BY AROUND 12Z. WILL RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF
INTERSTATE 95 FOR THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...THEN WILL SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH CHANCES LESS THAN SLIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS DRIER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...MAKING
THE CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH ALOFT
REMOTE. TOO MUCH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS FORECAST...COINCIDENT WITH DRY
AIR TO OUR WEST AS NOTED ON THE 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS. EVEN THE
TREND IS DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THOUGH EXPECT LINGERING
STRATOCU INTO THE MORNING IN MANY AREAS.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH MIXING
THAT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S KNOTS...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BACKING MORE
NORTHWEST WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WILL BE FALLING DURING
THE DAY...BUT THEIR VALUES SUGGEST HIGHS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE BUT
WITH ONLY MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM LATE NIGHT TEMPERATURES...FOR HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MOSTLY BELOW A QUARTER-INCH AND K INDICES HIGHLY
NEGATIVE. DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS MOVE IN AS WELL. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS ARE DRY...SUGGESTIVE OF CLEAR OR MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
20S...WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...NEARER THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSER TO EXPECTED VALUES
BASED ON 1000-850MB THICKNESSES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE ON THE AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE
APPROACH OF A JET AXIS ALOFT...AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THE NAM IS
CERTAINLY DRIER THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS DEEPER WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT
AND LOWERS PRESSURES MORE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THE 00Z ECMWF OFFERS A GOOD COMPROMISE...SHOWING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
STARTING TO ENCROACH ON CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AND SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY MORE OPAQUE SOUTH. WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE TRIAD AND NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...WITH A BLEND IN THE MIDDLE INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE
AND KRWI...AND CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE TOWARD KFAY. THIS
RESULTS IN LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S TOWARD KTDF...25 TO 30 OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AND MID 20S IN BETWEEN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER ON ITS HEELS. MODELS
INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE NC/SC COAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT FRONT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN INTENSIFYING UPPER JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INLAND AND THUS DONT PRODUCE ANY QPF OVER THE RAH CWA.
CIRRUS SHOULD BE RATHER ABUNDANT...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
DAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH THE PASSING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL LIMIT SOME OF THE MODERATION OF
TEMPS....THOUGH HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH SEASONAL NORMS...48-52.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT 26-31.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DOMINATED BY THE
NORTHERN STREAM AS SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SLOWLY CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY A TREND TOWARD NEGATIVE NAO/AO PHASES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAINED SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL LIKELY PLAGUE THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING A BIT...INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...
BEFORE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WERE SLOWLY SPREADING EAST
AND THEY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING
THIS EARLY MORNING...WITH KFAY LIKELY BEING PREDOMINANTLY VFR BY
14Z. THEN...CURRENTLY EXPECT BROKEN VFR-LEVEL CEILINGS ENDING BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY...WINDS SHOULD BACK MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S KNOTS AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...THOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS TOWARD
KRWI AND KFAY MAY BE MORE NOTICEABLE A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE THERE COMPARED
TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. BASED ON
THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY AND KRWI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST.
OTHER GUIDANCE APPEARS DRIER AS OF THIS WRITING.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA (LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER FORCING
FROM UPPER WAVE)...AND A BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING TO THE NORTH
(LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION). THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOWFALL SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY UP
TO 3. THE SOUTHERN AND HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
2-4 INCHES...POSSIBLY UP TO 5. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL
THIS STRONGER AREA OF PRECIP TRACK. THE RAP INITIALIZED THIS AREA
TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL THROW OUT THIS SOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT...INDICATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND INTO THE WADENA AREA. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING...MOSTLY
LIMITING THE 3+ TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIDGERWOOD TO PARK
RAPIDS LINE. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS TO END THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT 19Z AS IT APPEARS SNOW WILL BE
OVER BY THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 3+ INCHES OF SNOW. TO THE NORTH...1-3
INCHES OF SNOW NOT REALLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
20-30 MPH WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES...WILL LET IT
RIDE (THIS WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HAZARDS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY. 00Z
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...MAKING CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS
QUITE LOW. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF SNOWFALL (JUST SOUTH OF THE FA)...WHILE THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/RAP/HRRR BRING THE HEAVIER BAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FA (WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH). THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING QPF AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIER BAND (AND
AROUND 0.10 INCHES ELSEWHERE)...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO 4-6 INCHES.
THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH...AND CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST...AND STICK TO THE ONGOING FORECAST UNTIL THEN.
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...AND
SHALLOWER MIXING POTENTIAL. THIS MEANS WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL LIKELY 20-30MPH THIS MORNING (WHICH COMBINED
WITH FALLING SNOW COULD STILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH HARD
TO TIME UPPER WAVES. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK WAVE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30%-40%
RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE. WINDS FROM THE NW COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
DRIFTING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH
HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THE NEXT WAVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...FRIDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT BALMY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS AS RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM CAUSE BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL RIBBON IS
NORTH OF CWFA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
GENERATED BY EXIT REGION OF 300MB JET JUSTIFY LOW POPS SAGGING
INTO NORTHERN THIRD CWFA AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. BASED ON CURRENT AND
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD POPS SOUTH WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT IN LEFT
REAR QUAD OF JET.
00Z SUITE OF MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD SURGE. THE TEMPERATURE WILL PROBABLY PEAK EARLY SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN ANOTHER DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET...DEEP
LAYERED COLD ADVECTION AND ORIENTATION OF ISOBARS SUGGEST QUITE
BREEZY CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL FOR SATURDAY. HAVE UPPED WIND SPEEDS
ON SATURDAY INTO EVENING USING GFS/BCMOS BLEND.
BEYOND THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2013 ARE COLD AND DRY AS ARCTIC
RIDGE SLIDES ALONG AND WEST OF CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THIS REGION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBY...AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-
053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-027-029-030.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-
003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1005 AM MST TUE DEC 24 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...OVERALL...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. CHINOOK
WINDS FAIRLY STRONG IN AND NEAR FOOTHILLS...WITH SOME RECENT GUSTS
TO 60 MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 93 FROM BOULDER TO GOLDEN. GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES AS WELL. FAIRLY DECENT
MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION COMBINING WITH GOOD MOUNTAIN WAVE TO
PRODUCE THE GUSTY AND ERRATIC CHINOOK WINDS. ACROSS THE PLAINS
AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILL...WINDS LIGHTER WITH SOME SORT OF A
ANTICYCLONE IN THE DENVER AREA. SNOW ACROSS MOUNTAINS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS MID LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WYOMING. SPATIAL CROSS SECTIONS STILL
INDICATING A DECREASE IN THE WINDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW DECREASES TO AROUND 40 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING ASCENT. THIS ASCENT WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE INVERSION.
LATEST MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 4
INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. GUSTY WINDS OVER HIGHER PASSES WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING
SNOW. ACROSS PLAINS...APPEARS COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF CHEYENNE.
THERE ARE SOME PRESSURE RISES ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO. MODELS SHOW FRONT RACING SOUTH BY 20Z..A BIT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER THINKING. WINDS TO BE GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE EAST OF DENVER AREA.
STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CHEYENNE AREA SHOWINGS SIGNS OF DECREASING.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR DOES SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE PLAINS
EAST OF DENVER AS WELL AS THE PALMER DIVIDE. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL ASCENT TO PERHAPS SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW SHOWERS BY THE EVENING. THIS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE...
LOW POPS LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH
PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING SNOW
ACROSS MOUNTAINS. THOUGH WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS
PLAINS...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW INCREASING TO 50
KTS AT MOUNTAIN TOP BY MIDNIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS THE RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES
OVERNIGHT.
.AVIATION...WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE DENVER AREA WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ONGOING AT KBJC. FRONT JUST NORTH OF CHEYENNE...AND SHOULD RACE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z. WILL BACK OFF THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT TO 19Z FOR THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...REST OF TAF
TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER FROPA THEN DECREASING WITH A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE EVENING. STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z WITH PERHAPS CEILINGS AROUND
7000 FEET AGL. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. VFR TO PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM MST TUE DEC 24 2013/
UPDATE...
AVIATION...UPDATED DENVER AREA TAFS TO REFLECT AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
TIME FOR THE COLD FRONT AND ITS WIND SHIFT. FRONT AT PRESENT TIME
WAS JUST PASSING TORRINGTON IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WITHIN THE PAST
30 MINUTES...THE FRONT BLEW THROUGH CASPER WITH IFR CIGS...MODERATE
SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHERN WINDS TO 31 KTS. AT ITS PRESENT SPEED...
COULD SEE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING IN THE DENVER AREA BY
18Z OR EVEN 17Z. THAT WOULD BE 2 TO 3 HOURS EARLIER THAN WHAT
MODELS INDICATE. FURTHERMORE...IT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS
MORNING SHOULD IT APPEAR CIGS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS NOW
INDICATED IN TAFS. HOWEVER...MODELS PRESENTLY DO NOT INDICATE
THIS HAPPENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 AM MST TUE DEC 24 2013/
RESENT...
SHORT TERM...TODAY-TONIGHT: FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...
700-500 MB TROUGH MOVING ALONG IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW STREAM AND
PRESENTLY PASSING OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. AT THE
SURFACE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO ACROSS
NORTHWEST WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA AS OF 09Z. AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT ALL THAT COLD AS REVEALED BY THE
RAIN...NOT SNOW...FALLING FROM THE CLOUD BAND ALONG THE FRONT
CROSSING SOUTHERN MONTANA. LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT AT THIS HOURS IN THE RELATIVELY MILD 20S AND 30S. MEANWHILE
CLOSER TO HOME...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINING WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE AND INCREASING MTN TOP STABILITY TO CRANK CHINOOK
WIND MACHINE ALONG THE OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. GUSTS DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND
GILPIN COUNTIES IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. MODEL SPATIAL CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT NEAR. THOSE HIGH WIND
PRONE AREAS...SUCH AS UP AROUND WONDERVU... GEORGETOWN...WARD AND
NEDERLAND IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER AND BOULDER COULD SEE
GUSTS APPROACHING 65 MPH PRIOR TO 12Z. FURTHERMORE A MOUNTAIN WAVE
CLOUD SHIELD HAVE FORMED IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE WHICH HAS
ALSO HELPED TO PRODUCE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BASE
OF THE FOOTHILLS.
TODAY...STRONG/GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE MOUNTAIN WAVE AND CROSS MOUNTAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAX. UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONT WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING
THIS MORNING WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A SHRINKING CLOUD/PRECIP BAND AS
THIS SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. THE COLD FRONT IS
TIMED TO REACH THE NORTHEAST COLORADO BORDER BY ABOUT 18Z TODAY...
WHERE IT THEN RACES SOUTH WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WRF...HRRR AND NAM MODELS SHOW THE FRONT AND
ITS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING DENVER AND THE I-70 CORRIDOR EAST
OF THE METRO AREA AROUND 21Z (2 PM MST)...AND EXITING SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA AN HOUR OR SO LATER. GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH WITH
THE FRONT AND FOR AN HOUR OR SO AFTER FROPA...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS STAYING EAST OF I-25. WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS WITH FROPA...BUT STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH STRONG SFC TO MILD-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE
AREA NOT LONG AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH UP NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER LATE
TODAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...WEAK SFC-500 MB QG ASCENT WITH TROUGH
AND FRONT STILL NECESSITATES MENTIONING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW ON THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY
ACCUMULATION...EVEN ON THE PALMER DIVIDE. MOUNTAIN AREAS...SPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN LINE TO SEE SEVERAL
HOURS OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOWFALL LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS PROBABLY NO
MORE THAN 3-4 INCHES ON HIGHEST WEST-NORTHWEST SLOPES. SNOWFALL
SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DRYING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SAME TIME...RIDGES AND EAST SLOPES COULD SEE
WESTERLY WINDS RAMPING UP AGAIN WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH IN
WIND PRONE AREAS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WEAK ACROSS COLORADO AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS INLAND INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A DECREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
THAT BRUSHES FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THURSDAY BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS RATHER DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMALS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
READINGS INTO THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS.
THE NEXT FEATURE WITH POTENTIAL WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS THE DRIER MODEL WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS MORE MOISTURE AND SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER COLORADO. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS WELL.
AVIATION...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15KTS IN THE DENVER AREA THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 30KTS
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS SUCH AS AT BJC. THIS AFTERNOON COLD FRONT RACES
SOUTH THROUGH THE DENVER METRO AREA WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KTS.
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE EAST OF I-25 AROUND 21Z. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LAST AN HOUR OR SO AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEN LIGHTEN UP AS THEY TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5-10KTS BEFORE 06Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT RAN/SNOW SHOWER IN THE DENVER AREA
SHORTLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. THEN CLEARING IN THE EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHRTWV RDG AXIS
MOVING INTO THE WRN LKS BTWN DEPARTING TROF IN THE SE GRT LKS
RESPONSIBLE FOR LES THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A PAIR OF SHRTWVS DIGGING
SEWD THRU SCENTRAL CANADA/THE NRN ROCKIES E OF MEAN RDG NEAR THE W
COAST. WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG ACRS THE AREA...LINGERING LES NEAR LK
SUP HAS DIMINISHED AND PUSHED INTO THE OPEN WATERS AS THE FLOW IS
SHIFTING TO THE SSW IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LO PRES TROF IN THE NRN
PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO CLIPPER SHRTWVS. THE 12Z INL/MPX
RAOBS SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH PWATS UNDER 0.10 INCH...SO
SKIES ARE TURNING MOSUNNY AT MOST PLACES AS THE SSW FLOW SHIFTS
LINGERING LO CLDS BACK OUT OVER LK SUP. MID CLDS IN ADVANCE OF
APRCHG CLIPPER SHRTWVS/SFC TROF ARE PUSHING EWD THRU MN...WITH SN
FALLING OVER NW MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THIS SN HAS BEEN
MDT AT SOME PLACES UNDER THE SHARPER H85-5 QVECTOR CVNGC...THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR INFLOW.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE EXPECTED POPS/SN AMOUNTS
LATE TNGT AND XMAS MRNG ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM CLIPPER SHRTWVS AND
GOING WINTER STORM WATCH OVER THE ERN CWA/NEED FOR ANY NEW HEADLINES.
TNGT INTO XMAS DAY...UPR TROF TO THE NW IS FCST TO SHIFT TO THE SE
AND STRETCH FM NW ONTARIO THRU MN AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z
WED. MODELS SHOW PCPN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF ARRIVING OVER THE WRN
CWA LATE THIS EVNG AND PUSHING TO THE E...WITH A 6-9 PERIOD OF SN AT
MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE THE SN DIMINISHES OVER THE W 09-12Z WED AND BY
ABOUT 18Z WED OVER THE ERN CWA FOLLOWING DEPARTURE OF DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC. MAIN NEGATIVES FOR SGNFT SN FALL INCLUDE FCST SHARPER
H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC/SHARPER H7 UVV ASSOCIATED WITH INCOMING OUT OF
PHASE SHRTWVS FOCUSING TO THE S OF UPR MI... LACK OF SGNFT MSTR
INFLOW WITH ONLY ABOUT 1.5-2 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR H7...AND
LIMITED RESIDENCE OF TIME OF PCPN. ONE FACTOR IN FAVOR OF SOMEWHAT
HIER SN AMOUNTS IS FCST DEEP DGZ THAT MAY BOOST SN/WATER RATIOS AS
HI AS 20-25:1. CONSIDERING MODEL QPF 0.05-0.15 INCH...EXPECT 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SN. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE OVER THE ERN CWA DOWNWIND OF
LK MI...WHERE INCRSG SSW FLOW UP THE LENGTH OF LK MI IN THE PRESENCE
OF DEEP MSTR/H85 TEMPS ARND -15C WL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LK
ENHANCED SN. PRESENCE OF LINGERING BAND IN NRN LK MI AS SHOWN ON
RECENT STLT IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTN INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS
FCST. BULK OF HIER RES MODELS SHOW THE HEAVIER LES BAND IMPACTING
FAR SE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY/SRN LUCE COUNTY IN THE 09Z-15Z WED TIME
FRAME. WITH MODEL QPF RANGING FM 0.25 INCH TO AS MUCH AS 0.40 INCH
AND DEEP DGZ SHOWN ON THE FCST SDNGS...EXPECT AT LEAST A HI END ADVY
SNFALL IN THIS AREA. FCST SDNGS ALSO SHOW A PERIOD OF NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW FLOW WITHIN THE MIXED LYR FOR A FEW HRS DURING
TIME OF PEAK SN INTENSITY. GIVEN THESE FVRBL CONDITIONS...OPTED TO
UPGRADE WATCH TO A WRNG FOR LUCE COUNTY...WHERE HEAVIER LES BAND IS
MOST LIKELY TO RESIDE THE LONGEST AND DROP UP TO 9 TO PERHAPS 10
INCHES ALONG M-28 E OF ERY. WENT WITH AN ADVY FOR SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LK ENHANCEMENT...ESPECIALLY E OF SENEY AND
MANISTIQUE. AS FOR TEMPS...ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLDS/STEADY S WIND WL
ALLOW FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SMALL TEMP DIP EARLY OVER THE W HALF.
BUT TO THE E...EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY OVER THE INTERIOR ERN
CWA THIS EVNG BEFORE THE CLDS AND STEADY S WINDS ARRIVE LATER.
LATER ON XMAS DAY...AS THE UPR TROF AND SFC REFLECTION SHIFT SLOWLY
THRU THE UPR GREAT LKS...THE LLVL FLOW IS PROGGED TO VEER TOWARD THE
W. THIS WSHFT TO A MORE WSW DIRECTION WL END THE THREAT OF LK
ENHANCED SHSN OVER THE E BY EARLY AFTN BUT CAUSE SOME LES TO DVLP
OVER THE W IN THE AFTN AS H85 TEMPS DIP BACK NEAR -18C BY 00Z THU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL CONV ALONG A COLD FRONT AND 850
MB TEMPS DROPPING FROM -15C TO -19C WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LES
INTO NORTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN WED EVENING AND OVER ERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH A FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE DGZ IN THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER GIVING SLR VALUES NEAR 25/1...INVERSION HEIGHTS
NEAR 6K FT AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM CALUMET TO TWIN LAKES AND NORTH OF M-28 EAST OF
MUNISING.
THU INTO THU NIGHT...NW FLOW LES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A WEAK
SFC RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN LAKES
BRINGING BACKING WINDS AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. THE STRONGEST
FORCING AND MOST FAVORABLE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
UPPER MICHIGAN.
FRI...THE ECMWF WAS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW BY LATE FRI WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD NW
ONTARIO COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
PCPN...ONLY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED...MAINLY OVER THE EAST.
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS UPPER MI
WILL BE IN THE WARMER SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW. TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 30. MODEL DIFFERENCES WERE EVEN
GREATER BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE ECMWF WAS SLOWER/DEEPER WITH
SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. REGARDLESS OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WITH WINDS VEERING
SHARPLY TO THE NNW SHOULD BRING LES OR LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO NRN
UPPER SAT NIGHT.
SUN-TUE...ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LES EXPECTED FOR NW WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS.
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST HALF
BOTH EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
AS THE PRES GRADIENT OVER UPR MI TIGHTENS BTWN A DEPARTING SFC HI
PRES RDG AND AN APRCHG LO PRES TROF...EXPECT GUSTY S WINDS TO DVLP
LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD/SAW LOCATIONS. OTRW...
VFR CONDITIONS WL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE EVNG AS SN IN ADVANCE OF THE TROF MOVES W-E INTO UPR MI. THE
BEST CHC FOR THE IFR VSBYS WL BE AT SAW...WHERE THE LLVL S WIND WL
NOT DOWNSLOPE. EVEN AFTER THE SN DIMINISHES W-E BY SUNRISE ON WED...
MVFR SC CIGS WL LINGER. AS THE WEAKER FLOW VEERS TOWARD THE W LATER
ON WED MRNG...MORE SHSN/IFR VSBYS MAY IMPACT CMX LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 438 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING
BETWEEN DEPARTING SURFACE HI PRES RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING LO PRES
TROF...OPTED TO MAINTAIN GOING GALE WARNING FOR THE ECENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AWAY FROM THIS FAVORED AREA...SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOSER APPROACH AND THEN PASSAGE OF LO PRES
TROF AND WEAKER GRADIENT ON WED WILL CAUSE THE GALES TO DIMINISH AS
THE WINDS VEER TOWARD THE W-NW. NORTHWEST TO NORTH GALES WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ014-085.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1137 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
POTENT VORT MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS MONTANA MOVING
SOUTHEAST.ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX WAS A 1010MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER OF 1039MB WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI.
OTHERWISE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS ORIENTED NORTH TO
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ALONG
THE WEST COAST.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME WEAK
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH ECHOES COMING SOUTHEAST
INTO NW CHERRY COUNTY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY CROSS
SECTIONS OF INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH ASOS
REPORTS ARE INCONCLUSIVE. IR SATELLITE AND RAP MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION VECTORS INDICATE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
REGION WHICH THE MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED WELL. STILL...SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME AND CURRENT ECHO COVERAGE
SUPPORTS THAT. IF WEAK CONVECTION IS INDEED A POSSIBILITY...SLEET
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AND HENCE MENTION OF SLEET IS INCLUDED FOR
THE NORTHERN MOST FORECAST AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...FCST REMAINS
CLOSE TO WHERE IT WAS. TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY FOR TODAY AS WARM
AIR SURGES EASTWARD AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
MIXING POTENTIAL IS IN QUESTION WITH EXISTING SNOW COVER...SO
TEMPS WERE ONLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEAL WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLIPPER
SYSTEM. ATTM...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NERN WYOMING
PER 09Z SFC ANALYSIS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS
FEATURE THROUGH EASTERN WYOMING...AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST FROM NERN WYOMING INTO NERN NEBRASKA. EAST OF THE
APPG WARM FRONT THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION AS MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASES PER MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AND OMEGA. TEMPERATURE PROFILES PER BUFKIT SOUNDING
DATA ARE INDICATIVE OF A VERY SHALLOW...ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ABOVE
THE SUBZERO SURFACE LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE VERY SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR THIS MORNING...DECIDED TO KEEP A MENTION
OF SLEET ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
CLEARS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR PCPN WILL SHIFT TO
ALL SNOW. MID LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES TO BE MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NERN CWA LATER TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST
POPS IN THESE AREAS. UTILIZING A BLEND OF THE MET AND MAV SOLNS
YIELDED QPFS OF UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH TDY IN THE NORTH...AND
WILL KEEP CORRESPONDING SNOW ACCUMS TO AN INCH OR LESS. THEN THERE
IS THE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE
A TIGHT WINDOW OF NEAR ADVISORY WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE COUNTIES
AROUND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS FALLING BACK INTO THE 20
TO 30 MPH RANGE BY EARLY EVENING. DECIDED TO FORGO AN ADVISORY FOR
THE PANHANDLE COUNTIES ATTM AS THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WINDS ARE
NOT SUPPORTED WITH THE MAV GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS WINDS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE...WITH
EXCEPTION IN THE VALLEY...WHERE WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 MPH. WITH A
LIGHT BREEZE CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE. SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE
FLOW...BUT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A PACIFIC AIRMASS
AND DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE
30S TO LOWER 40S CHRISTMAS DAY...TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY FRIDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY...ENTERING NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE COLDEST AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
RETURN FOR AT LEAST WESTERN NEBRASKA BY MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE COLDER AIR
A BIT FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE COLDER GFS SCENARIO SUPPORTS HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 30S BY MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH MID TO
UPPER 20S FARTHER EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
TRICKY FORECAST IN TIMING ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND INCREASES IN
WIND. COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD AND HAS MADE IT THROUGH
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND KVTN WINDS HAVE
INCREASED IN THE LAST HOUR. IN ADDITION...IR SAT PICS AND RAP
MODEL MID LEVEL DEFORMATION VECTORS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS SD AND INTO FAR NRN NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...DRY AIR AND MORE OF A FRONTOLYTICAL STRUCTURE SUGGEST
LESSER CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT
RADAR RETURNS.
THE TAF FOR KVTN INCLUDES THE MENTION AND CIGS NEARING IFR FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. AS FOR
KLBF...NO MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND LESSER MID LEVEL FORCING
FOR ASCENT. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE ON THIS IDEA AND WITH A
WEAK CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THIS AFERNOON. SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHT FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR KLBF...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME DUE TO
A LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN LOW LEVEL SATURATION.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JWS
SYNOPSIS...TAYLOR
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...JWS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
112 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
BACK EDGE OF SNOW BAND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR BAUDETTE TO FARGO TO
LISBON...MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 MPH. WILL ALLOW
THE NORTHERN VALLEY PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM AND
WILL ALSO CANCEL THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR THE PORTION SET
TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER RETURNS/HEAVIER SNOW
COAGULATING ACROSS NORTHEAST SD ALONG TRACK OF 850 HPA LOW. SNOW
AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN LIKELY TO BE ON THE
LOW END OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST RANGE (1-2 INCHES)...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY GIVEN SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBLITY.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HIGHER POCKETS OF 3-4 INCHES STILL NOT OUT THE
QUESTION. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE REST OF THE GRIDS TO
FALL IN-LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE SNOW/WIND AND ASSOCIATED ADVISORY
HEADLINES. WILL FOLLOW CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR
OUTPUT FOR UPDATE DETAILS.
WSR-88D SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FROM ROSEAU/
HALLOCK THROUGH GRAND FORKS/THIEF RIVER FALLS AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ND. STRONGEST WIND IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MN WHERE RAP IS SHOWING 925 HPA WINDS AROUND 50 KTS.
VERY STRONG INVERSION IS KEEPING MUCH OF THIS FROM MIXING TO THE
SURFACE...BUT STILL SEEING SOME OBSERVATIONS SUSTAINED AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH SNOW IS
RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 MILE.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS...
CURRENT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES IS STILL REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL MN COINCIDENT WITH 850 HPA LOW TRACK. DID
ADD RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY UNTIL 01 UTC AS THERE
IS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH LAMOURE/
DICKEY COUNTIES. WINDS NOT AS STRONG IN THIS AREA...BUT A QUICK 2
TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
A WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED FROM HALLOCK TO
COOPERSTOWN TO JAMESTOWN...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AT THE 1 PM UPDATE. FOR NOW...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE
ALL SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ALL OTHER GRIDS
GOOD WITH ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA (LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER FORCING
FROM UPPER WAVE)...AND A BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING TO THE NORTH
(LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION). THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOWFALL SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY UP
TO 3. THE SOUTHERN AND HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
2-4 INCHES...POSSIBLY UP TO 5. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL
THIS STRONGER AREA OF PRECIP TRACK. THE RAP INITIALIZED THIS AREA
TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL THROW OUT THIS SOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT...INDICATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND INTO THE WADENA AREA. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING...MOSTLY
LIMITING THE 3+ TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIDGERWOOD TO PARK
RAPIDS LINE. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS TO END THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT 19Z AS IT APPEARS SNOW WILL BE
OVER BY THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 3+ INCHES OF SNOW. TO THE NORTH...1-3
INCHES OF SNOW NOT REALLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
20-30 MPH WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES...WILL LET IT
RIDE (THIS WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HAZARDS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY. 00Z
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...MAKING CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS
QUITE LOW. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF SNOWFALL (JUST SOUTH OF THE FA)...WHILE THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/RAP/HRRR BRING THE HEAVIER BAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FA (WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH). THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING QPF AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIER BAND (AND
AROUND 0.10 INCHES ELSEWHERE)...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO 4-6 INCHES.
THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH...AND CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST...AND STICK TO THE ONGOING FORECAST UNTIL THEN.
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...AND
SHALLOWER MIXING POTENTIAL. THIS MEANS WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL LIKELY 20-30MPH THIS MORNING (WHICH COMBINED
WITH FALLING SNOW COULD STILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH HARD
TO TIME UPPER WAVES. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK WAVE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30%-40%
RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE. WINDS FROM THE NW COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
DRIFTING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH
HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THE NEXT WAVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...FRIDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT BALMY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS AS RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM CAUSE BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL RIBBON IS
NORTH OF CWFA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
GENERATED BY EXIT REGION OF 300MB JET JUSTIFY LOW POPS SAGGING
INTO NORTHERN THIRD CWFA AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. BASED ON CURRENT AND
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD POPS SOUTH WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT IN LEFT
REAR QUAD OF JET.
00Z SUITE OF MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD SURGE. THE TEMPERATURE WILL PROBABLY PEAK EARLY SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN ANOTHER DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET...DEEP
LAYERED COLD ADVECTION AND ORIENTATION OF ISOBARS SUGGEST QUITE
BREEZY CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL FOR SATURDAY. HAVE UPPED WIND SPEEDS
ON SATURDAY INTO EVENING USING GFS/BCMOS BLEND.
BEYOND THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2013 ARE COLD AND DRY AS ARCTIC
RIDGE SLIDES ALONG AND WEST OF CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
SNOW BAND ALONG A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE PROPAGATING EAST AT 25 KTS AND
USED THIS SPEED TO TIME BAND ACROSS FA. WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
SNOW MOVES EAST OF ROUGHLY A KFAR-KFSE LINE AND EARLY EVENING FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FA. VSBY GENERALLY FROM 3/4 TO 2 MILES IN SNOW
BAND WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. MORE MVFR CIGS DROPPING IN BEHIND
SNOW BAND SO WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS LIFT INTO VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ052-
053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-
006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1014 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
CONCERNS THIS MORNING INCLUDE SNOW/WIND AND ASSOCIATED ADVISORY
HEADLINES. WILL FOLLOW CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RAP/HRRR
OUTPUT FOR UPDATE DETAILS.
WSR-88D SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FROM ROSEAU/
HALLOCK THROUGH GRAND FORKS/THIEF RIVER FALLS AND INTO SOUTHEAST
ND. STRONGEST WIND IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST MN WHERE RAP IS SHOWING 925 HPA WINDS AROUND 50 KTS.
VERY STRONG INVERSION IS KEEPING MUCH OF THIS FROM MIXING TO THE
SURFACE...BUT STILL SEEING SOME OBSERVATIONS SUSTAINED AROUND 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH SNOW IS
RESULTING IN SOME REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/2 MILE.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS...
CURRENT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 1 TO 4
INCHES IS STILL REASONABLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE ND/SD
BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL MN COINCIDENT WITH 850 HPA LOW TRACK. DID
ADD RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY UNTIL 01 UTC AS THERE
IS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH LAMOURE/
DICKEY COUNTIES. WINDS NOT AS STRONG IN THIS AREA...BUT A QUICK 2
TO 4 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
A WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW HAS DEVELOPED FROM HALLOCK TO
COOPERSTOWN TO JAMESTOWN...SO MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AT THE 1 PM UPDATE. FOR NOW...UPDATED POPS TO REMOVE
ALL SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ALL OTHER GRIDS
GOOD WITH ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF HEAVIER PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA (LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER FORCING
FROM UPPER WAVE)...AND A BAND OF PRECIP EXTENDING TO THE NORTH
(LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION). THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOWFALL SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY 1-2 INCHES...POSSIBLY UP
TO 3. THE SOUTHERN AND HEAVIER AREA OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
2-4 INCHES...POSSIBLY UP TO 5. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL
THIS STRONGER AREA OF PRECIP TRACK. THE RAP INITIALIZED THIS AREA
TOO FAR NORTH...AND WILL THROW OUT THIS SOLUTION. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT...INDICATING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND INTO THE WADENA AREA. SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ABOVE THINKING...MOSTLY
LIMITING THE 3+ TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LIDGERWOOD TO PARK
RAPIDS LINE. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS TO END THE NORTHERN VALLEY AT 19Z AS IT APPEARS SNOW WILL BE
OVER BY THIS TIME. THE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD FOR AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 3+ INCHES OF SNOW. TO THE NORTH...1-3
INCHES OF SNOW NOT REALLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WINDS ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
20-30 MPH WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES...WILL LET IT
RIDE (THIS WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HAZARDS).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WIND SPEEDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY. 00Z
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...MAKING CONFIDENCE WITH DETAILS
QUITE LOW. THE ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF SNOWFALL (JUST SOUTH OF THE FA)...WHILE THE
GFS/NAM/GEM/RAP/HRRR BRING THE HEAVIER BAND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FA (WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH). THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING QPF AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITHIN THE HEAVIER BAND (AND
AROUND 0.10 INCHES ELSEWHERE)...WHICH WOULD EQUATE TO 4-6 INCHES.
THE 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH...AND CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND INCOMING MODEL
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MAKING ANY RADICAL CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST...AND STICK TO THE ONGOING FORECAST UNTIL THEN.
THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL THIS MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...AND
SHALLOWER MIXING POTENTIAL. THIS MEANS WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG...BUT STILL LIKELY 20-30MPH THIS MORNING (WHICH COMBINED
WITH FALLING SNOW COULD STILL LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY).
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...EXPECT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH HARD
TO TIME UPPER WAVES. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK WAVE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE 30%-40%
RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE. WINDS FROM THE NW COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
DRIFTING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH
HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES...WILL CONTINUE. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THE NEXT WAVE LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 30-40% RANGE FOR THIS FEATURE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...FRIDAY LOOKS DOWNRIGHT BALMY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS AS RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF WEEKEND SYSTEM CAUSE BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY/THERMAL RIBBON IS
NORTH OF CWFA ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT
GENERATED BY EXIT REGION OF 300MB JET JUSTIFY LOW POPS SAGGING
INTO NORTHERN THIRD CWFA AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. BASED ON CURRENT AND
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD POPS SOUTH WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT IN LEFT
REAR QUAD OF JET.
00Z SUITE OF MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD SURGE. THE TEMPERATURE WILL PROBABLY PEAK EARLY SATURDAY
THEN BEGIN ANOTHER DOWNWARD SPIRAL BEHIND THE FRONT. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE...MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET...DEEP
LAYERED COLD ADVECTION AND ORIENTATION OF ISOBARS SUGGEST QUITE
BREEZY CONDITIONS POST FRONTAL FOR SATURDAY. HAVE UPPED WIND SPEEDS
ON SATURDAY INTO EVENING USING GFS/BCMOS BLEND.
BEYOND THAT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF 2013 ARE COLD AND DRY AS ARCTIC
RIDGE SLIDES ALONG AND WEST OF CWFA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THIS REGION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS/VSBY...AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ039-
049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-027-029-030.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ002-
003-005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...EWENS/TG
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
603 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST THE AREA AND THE INVERSION LOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FLOW HAS VEERED TO NORTHWEST DECREASING THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONE TO TWO MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA SO WILL CONTINUE
THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES WITH NO CHANGES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN NW PA FOR THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EAST OF CLE AND SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN GEAUGA COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS AREA AND THIS SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND EITHER SLOWER CLEARING THIS EVENING
OR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL READING WILL BE
RATHER COLD AND BE AROUND 10.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS
DAY AND PRODUCE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO LITTLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE
MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO NEAR -12C SO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WARMING CONDITIONS SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH.
FAIR MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 0C AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FOR
SUNDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WARMER...SO
WILL MENTION A MIX FOR SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH JUST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...LOW CHANCE WITH MOISTURE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH THE LAKE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 20C.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN ON TUESDAY. SOME TIMING
QUESTIONS WITH THAT...SO WILL LEAVE THE POPS LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE AREA THRU MIDNIGHT WILL HELP TO END
THE LAKE EFFECT SHSN AROUND ERI WHILE THE MVFR STRATO CU OVER ALL
BUT THE WESTERN AREA WILL RECEDE TO THE EAST. HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY
WED. SOME LIGHT SHSN MAY BE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AROUND AND
NEAR LERI BY LATE IN THE DAY WED BUT SINCE THE OVERALL POP FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE IS ONLY 30% WILL JUST CARRY 6SM SHSN OR VCSH IN
TAFS LATE WED AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FREQUENTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN TONIGHT...SO THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9
PM ON THE EAST END...IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THE NEXT THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT MAY LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
357 PM EST TUE DEC 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT
SOUTH TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE WINDING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST THE AREA AND THE INVERSION LOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FLOW HAS VEERED TO NORTHWEST DECREASING THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CLOUDS GRADUALLY
CLEARING OVER THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT BANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ONE TO TWO MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA SO WILL CONTINUE
THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES WITH NO CHANGES. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN NW PA FOR THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER EAST OF CLE AND SOME CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY IN GEAUGA COUNTY. THE HRRR MODEL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THIS AREA AND THIS SEEMS VERY
REASONABLE. ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN SLIGHTLY MORE WIND AND EITHER SLOWER CLEARING THIS EVENING
OR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL READING WILL BE
RATHER COLD AND BE AROUND 10.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES CHRISTMAS
DAY AND PRODUCE MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY SO LITTLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AND WILL BE
MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
ANOTHER IMPLUSE WILL DEEPEN THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO NEAR -12C SO SOME LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE SNOWBELT THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WARMING CONDITIONS SO ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOWBANDS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND DIMINISH.
FAIR MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 0C AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FOR
SUNDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE SO WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS IN QUESTION. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE WARMER...SO
WILL MENTION A MIX FOR SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH JUST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...LOW CHANCE WITH MOISTURE LIMITED EVEN THOUGH THE LAKE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 20C.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN ON TUESDAY. SOME TIMING
QUESTIONS WITH THAT...SO WILL LEAVE THE POPS LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FIRST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC SNOW IS MOVING EAST BUT THE TROUGH
OVER LAKE ERIE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA AND EXPECT
ADDITIONAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
LAST INTO THE EVENING AT KERI IF LAKE HURON SNOW BANDS CAN GET
INTO NW PA. THE AIR MASS WILL REALLY DRY OUT TODAY AS ARCTIC AIR
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT.
.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SNOW
SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FREQUENTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
A RIDGE IS BUILDING IN TONIGHT...SO THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WILL LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 9
PM ON THE EAST END...IT WILL BE CLOSE.
THE NEXT THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTER ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT MAY LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1140 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING WITH SNOW MOVING EAST. THE BAND OF ECHOES IS NOT THAT WIDE
THIS MORNING AS IT WAS MOVING EAST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWED THIS
BAND WELL. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY OUT WEST. THE EAST
MAY YET HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOWFALL.
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SHOW MORE DEVELOPMENT AND QPF THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE P-TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST SHAPING UP OVER THE AREA...WITH PLENTY
OF ISSUES. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS
INDICATED A VERY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY SLIDING E/SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. VERY IMPRESSIVE H5 HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 150 METERS NOTED OVER THE PAC NW. IN CONJUNCTION...VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA SIGNAL NOTED ON REGIONAL RAOBS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS. AT THE SFC...MSAS ANALYSIS AT 10Z
SHOWED A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER MT/WY WITH A STRONG SLY SFC FLOW
OVER THE CWA.
INITIAL CONCERN IS WIND CHILL VALUES. WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WAA
PATTERN...TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
IN THE CWA NOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. STILL
FLIRTING WITH WIND CHILL ADV CRITERIA /ESP IN THE FAR EAST/...BUT
BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL AS SCHEDULED AROUND 12Z /6AM
CST/.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE P-TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE. RADAR ECHOES ARE ALREADY EXPANDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT AND WRN SD AS OF 10Z AND THIS LINE OF PCPN IS
MOVING EWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED WARM LAYER
TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE WRN CWA...SO EXPECTING AN WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING. ICE ACCUMS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. HIGHEST ICE AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR KPIR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW LONG
ANY ICING CAN PERSIST...AS THE MODELS DO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR WHICH MAY ACT TO WET BULB THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FURTHER EAST...EXPECTING SNOW TO BE THE
DOMINANT PTYPE AS THE WARM NOSE FOLDS S/SE. BIG QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN ON STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF FORCING. 00Z GFS WAS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH QPF IN OUR AREA...WITH 00Z NAM/GEM SHOWING BEST
FORCING/SATURATION OVER ND. DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...USED A
MODEL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WHICH APPEARED MOST REASONABLE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES MODELS REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BAND. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
RATHER SHORT LIVED...BUT INTENSE BURST OF SNOWFALL. ALL IN
ALL...HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST RANGING FROM AROUND 4 INCHES
IN OUR MN COUNTIES TO AROUND 2 INCHES WEST OF ABERDEEN. ONCE THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL RUN TO 00Z
WED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH MILDER...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SWD LATE TONIGHT.
WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS LOBE OF
ENERGY...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TRACKING S/W ENERGY OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROF...SAID S/W ENERGY SHOULD BE SWEEPING SEWD THROUGH
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY DRAGGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW UP OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. LOW LEVEL CAA ON WEDNESDAY
AND SOME SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BETTER
MIXING ENVIRONMENT AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS COMING LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER AN EXPECTED LIGHT
SNOW EVENT. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WINT WX ADV FOR BLOWING SNOW.
OTHERWISE...STILL MONITORING NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CAA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY WARMER
PACIFIC-MODIFIED AIRMASS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT NW FLOW SYSTEM PUSHES THE POLAR FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
MULTIPLE-DAY PERIOD OF ARCTIC COLD AIR AROUND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE PINGING SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL PROLLY NEED TO TAKE A WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH TO HOW
MUCH OF THE REGION WARMS TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE POTENTIAL TO PLACE A GOOD CRUST ON TOP OF REGION-WIDE SNOW
COVER...AND THEREFORE JUST HOW MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS THAT DAY. FOR NOW...JUST ADDED
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MENTION INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED AT THE KMBG AND KPIR TAF SITES THIS
MORNING AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. MVFR CIGS ARE
STILL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KPIR AND KMBG HOWEVER.
RECENT REPORTS INDICATE PTYPE HAS TURNED ALL TO SNOW...AND
EXPECTING PRECIP TO REMAIN SNOW AS THE BAND PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA. MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT KATY AND KABR WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE. WINDS AT KABR AND KATY WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
WALWORTH.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1055 AM CST TUE DEC 24 2013
.UPDATE...
HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ACROSS THE WEST THIS
MORNING WITH SNOW MOVING EAST. THE BAND OF ECHOES IS NOT THAT WIDE
THIS MORNING AS IT WAS MOVING EAST. THE HRRR MODEL SHOWED THIS
BAND WELL. THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY OUT WEST. THE EAST
MAY YET HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SNOWFALL.
THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SHOW MORE DEVELOPMENT AND QPF THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE P-TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM
VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST SHAPING UP OVER THE AREA...WITH PLENTY
OF ISSUES. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS
INDICATED A VERY POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY SLIDING E/SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. VERY IMPRESSIVE H5 HEIGHT FALLS ON THE
ORDER OF 150 METERS NOTED OVER THE PAC NW. IN CONJUNCTION...VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA SIGNAL NOTED ON REGIONAL RAOBS...WITH A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PWATS. AT THE SFC...MSAS ANALYSIS AT 10Z
SHOWED A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER MT/WY WITH A STRONG SLY SFC FLOW
OVER THE CWA.
INITIAL CONCERN IS WIND CHILL VALUES. WITH ABOVE MENTIONED WAA
PATTERN...TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY RISING OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
IN THE CWA NOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. STILL
FLIRTING WITH WIND CHILL ADV CRITERIA /ESP IN THE FAR EAST/...BUT
BELIEVE WE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL AS SCHEDULED AROUND 12Z /6AM
CST/.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE P-TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THE NEXT
UPPER DISTURBANCE. RADAR ECHOES ARE ALREADY EXPANDING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT AND WRN SD AS OF 10Z AND THIS LINE OF PCPN IS
MOVING EWD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL DEFINED WARM LAYER
TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE WRN CWA...SO EXPECTING AN WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW THROUGH MID-MORNING. ICE ACCUMS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH. HIGHEST ICE AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER NEAR KPIR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW LONG
ANY ICING CAN PERSIST...AS THE MODELS DO INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR WHICH MAY ACT TO WET BULB THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. FURTHER EAST...EXPECTING SNOW TO BE THE
DOMINANT PTYPE AS THE WARM NOSE FOLDS S/SE. BIG QUESTIONS STILL
REMAIN ON STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY OF FORCING. 00Z GFS WAS THE MOST
BULLISH WITH QPF IN OUR AREA...WITH 00Z NAM/GEM SHOWING BEST
FORCING/SATURATION OVER ND. DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...USED A
MODEL BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF WHICH APPEARED MOST REASONABLE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A NUMBER OF THE HI-RES MODELS REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL BAND. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
RATHER SHORT LIVED...BUT INTENSE BURST OF SNOWFALL. ALL IN
ALL...HAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE EAST RANGING FROM AROUND 4 INCHES
IN OUR MN COUNTIES TO AROUND 2 INCHES WEST OF ABERDEEN. ONCE THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER...THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
QPF MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. WINTER WX ADVISORY WILL RUN TO 00Z
WED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH MILDER...WITH READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING...BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SWD LATE TONIGHT.
WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS LOBE OF
ENERGY...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TRACKING S/W ENERGY OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROF...SAID S/W ENERGY SHOULD BE SWEEPING SEWD THROUGH
THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA ON WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY DRAGGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW UP OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. LOW LEVEL CAA ON WEDNESDAY
AND SOME SUBSIDENCE PROMOTING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/BETTER
MIXING ENVIRONMENT AND A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS COMING LESS THAN 24 HOURS AFTER AN EXPECTED LIGHT
SNOW EVENT. MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WINT WX ADV FOR BLOWING SNOW.
OTHERWISE...STILL MONITORING NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE CAA
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY WARMER
PACIFIC-MODIFIED AIRMASS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT NW FLOW SYSTEM PUSHES THE POLAR FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
MULTIPLE-DAY PERIOD OF ARCTIC COLD AIR AROUND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE PINGING SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF RATHER STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
HOWEVER...WILL PROLLY NEED TO TAKE A WAIT-AND-SEE APPROACH TO HOW
MUCH OF THE REGION WARMS TO ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE POTENTIAL TO PLACE A GOOD CRUST ON TOP OF REGION-WIDE SNOW
COVER...AND THEREFORE JUST HOW MUCH OF THE REGION COULD SEE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS THAT DAY. FOR NOW...JUST ADDED
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW MENTION INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION. SO
FAR...KMBG HAS DROPPED TO AN IFR CIG CONDITION WHILE KABR...KATY
AND KPIR HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAYS SHOW PRECIPITATION
APPROACHING THE KMBG AND KPIR TERMINALS RIGHT NOW...AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROGS ARE ALL STILL VERY SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED PRECIP
AND FREEZING PRECIP THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS AT BOTH
TERMINALS. AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS/SLEET HAVE BEEN
INCORPORATED INTO THE KPIR AND KMBG TAFS FOR A COUPLE HOURS THIS
MORNING.
FURTHER EAST...THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS WILL SEE SUB-VFR
CIG/VIS CONDITIONS IN SNOW SETTING UP AT OR AFTER 15Z THIS
MORNING...PERSISTING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-
DEWEY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-
LYMAN-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
WALWORTH.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN