Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 12/07/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

1247 PM MST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
WESTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES...ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGE WESTERN REGION
TROUGH...WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RATHER COLD NIGHT-TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND A WARMING TREND BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
MID MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A LARGE PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS IN
THE PROCESS OF PRODUCING A WINTRY MIX OVER PARTS OF
TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AMONG OTHER
STATES. MEANWHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA ARE
LARGELY IN THE CLEAR THIS MORNING. ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND SOME CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY OVER
THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO IMPERIAL COUNTY...SKIES WERE CLEAR AS OF
16Z. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE IN FAR SOUTHWEST
IMPERIAL COUNTY THROUGH LATE DAY. LOCAL WRFS AND HRRR GUIDANCE
SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE SHOWER IN THAT AREA BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE AND POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE.

HAVENT ADDRESSED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT BUT INITIAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FREEZE WARNING FOR MOST OF THE LOWER AZ DESERTS LOOKS
ON TRACK. GIVEN THE COLD START THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO ONLY REACH THE MID 50S THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD BE FAIRLY
EASY TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...
FRIDAY WILL BE IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER INTERESTING AND A LITTLE COMPLICATED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF/DISTURBANCE...ROTATING AROUND THE FLOW
PATTERN OF THE MUCH LARGER WESTERN REGION LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
WILL APPROACH AZ LATER SATURDAY. DUE TO THE MASSIVELY COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE WESTERN REGION VERY LITTLE MOISTURE EXISTS IN QUANTITATIVE
TERMS. HOWEVER...BITTERLY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SPREAD OFF THE
WA...OR...AND NRN CA COASTS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERATING STRONG
LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO MECHANICALLY FORCE
RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AT AND BELOW
700 MB...INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST CA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. DUE TO RATHER STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
SATURDAY...RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS WILL HINDER PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY OF SOUTHEAST CA...BUT A VERY WINDY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIST AT OR BELOW 700 MB...
TEMPERATURES AT THESE LEVELS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH MOISTURE LOCATED
IN THE ICE CRYSTAL/PRECIP GROWTH ZONES OF MINUS 10 DEG C AND COLDER.
COMPOUND THIS WITH 30 KNOTS 800/700 MB SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT 4500 FT...WITH 2-3 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS INCLUDING
PHOENIX.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST
PART DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD QUICKLY TO THE AREA. IN OTHER
WORDS CLEARING AND COLDER SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AGAIN...AND NEARLY SIMILAR
TO WHAT IS FORECAST TOMORROW OR FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...FREEZE
WARNING CRITERIA IS MARGINAL AND CERTAINLY NOTHING LIKE THE STRONG
COLD WAVES WEVE HAD IN THE RECENT PAST. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY APPROACHING NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW-SCT CU AROUND 10KFT...AND LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z FRIDAY MORNING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT...
MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE 4000-4500 FEET SATURDAY...LOWERING SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BREEZY ELSEWHERE. CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST BREEZINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A COLD START MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR AZZ021>024-026>028.

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

919 AM MST THU DEC 5 2013

FRIDAY...
FRIDAY WILL BE IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS...WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING ON SATURDAY. THEREFORE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL EXIST AT OR BELOW 700 MB...
TEMPERATURES AT THESE LEVELS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH MOISTURE LOCATED
IN THE ICE XTAL/PRECIP GROWTH ZONES OF MINUS 10 DEG C AND COLDER.
COMPOUND THIS WITH 30 KNOTS 800/700 MB SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS
IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ABOUT 1 INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AT 4500 FT...WITH 2-3 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL AZ DESERTS INCLUDING
PHOENIX.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST
PART DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD QUICKLY TO THE AREA. IN OTHER
WORDS CLEARING AND COLDER SUNDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY APPROACHING NORMAL.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
CLOUDINESS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF THE
PHOENIX METRO AND THAT IS WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AS
WELL...MAINLY SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. LIGHT WEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TONIGHT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPILLING OVER THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL
DRIFT OVER THE IMPERIAL COUNTY TODAY WITH LOCAL CIGS OF 5-7 KFT
MSL...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21Z-03Z. EXPECT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL FAVOR NORTHERLY DIRECTIONS AND BE
LIGHT EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ON THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 4000-4500 FEET SATURDAY...LOWERING SEVERAL
HUNDRED FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3 INCHES ABOVE 5000
FEET ARE POSSIBLE. WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...BREEZY ELSEWHERE.
CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. AFTER A
COLD START MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR AZZ021>024-026>028.

CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

935 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS...A CHANCE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND A
REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH DURING THE PAST 1-3 HOURS ONGOING FROM THE NWRN PORTION
OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY AND SE PINAL COUNTY. ALTHOUGH CELL MOVEMENT HAS BEEN
NEWD...AREAL COVERAGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD. RUC HRRR
CONTINUES TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THUS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
MAINLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD/SWD. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE OVERDONE. PRECIP TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...THEN PRECIP TO DECREASE
FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST THUR AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS BY MIDDAY
THUR ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 4000 FEET ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS TO ABOUT 6500 FEET IN FAR SERN SECTIONS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO DECREASE MIN TEMPS ABOUT 2-4
DEGS FROM TUCSON WWD THE REST OF TONIGHT. OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SLY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. HOWEVER...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE ON TAP EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON THUR.
MARKEDLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM TUCSON WWD THUR. EXPECT MUCH
COOLER TEMPS THUR...WITH HIGH TEMPS PARTICULARLY FROM TUCSON WWD
NEARLY 15 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS TODAY.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN STATES. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH
BEFORE IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TIGHT
GRADIENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF TUCSON. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN KDUG INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TO THE EAST
UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES 45 KT FLOW ACROSS COCHISE AT 06Z TONIGHT. THIS USUALLY
MEANS THAT LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR THE HUACHUCA MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY EXTENDING INTO NW PINAL
COUNTY. AT 230 PM MST...KEMX RADAR JUST BEGINNING TO INDICATE SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION. THE HRRR AND UNIVERSITY
OF ARIZONA WRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST
INTO TUCSON BY 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH PCPN BEGINNING TO EXPAND AND
ENHANCE AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS EVENING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN AFFECTING THE
CWA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND STILL EXPECT ONLY A TENTH TO A THIRD INCH WITH MAYBE
A HALF INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS MAY BARELY HIT LOW END SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT
WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.

THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THE WIND OR THE PCPN...BUT
THE TEMPERATURES. COLD AIRMASS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH WILL BRING THE
FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER DESERTS FROM
TUCSON WEST. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR FRIDAY
MORNING TO GET THE WORD OUT TO PROTECT PEOPLE...PETS...PIPES AND
PLANTS.

ANOTHER STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER AND THUS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
THE GFS BRINGING PCPN AND ANOMALOUSLY COLDER TEMPS. INCREASED POPS AND
LOWERED TEMPS SAT NIGHT INTO MONDAY TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/00Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY FROM
KTUS VICINITY EWD/SWD THRU THURSDAY MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. CLOUD DECKS
THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY 3-6K FT AGL. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF KTUS. CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST-TO-EAST WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
EVENING. SURFACE WIND EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THRU THURSDAY EVENING
WLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. SURFACE WIND KTUS VICINITY WWD/
NWWD GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SUBSIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIMITED...ALTHOUGH
MANY AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. A SECOND STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THIS TROUGH LATE SATURDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...ALONG WITH REINFORCING THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
AZZ501>506.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS EUREKA CA

745 PM PST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN AND SNOW WILL TAPER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF NW CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTH. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO SHOW
A TAPERING OF CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEW 00Z NAM HAS
JUST COME IN AND IS HOLDING ON TO THE PRECIP TOO LONG, BUT THE
LATEST RUC SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON TARGET. IF THE RUC HOLDS TRUE,
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF NW CALIFORNIA BY
MIDNIGHT. ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTERWARD
MIDNIGHT. ADJUST SKY GRIDS AS WELL TO REFLECT A CLOUD DECK
BREAKING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. LEAVING WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR NOW,
BUT MAY DROP THEM AN HOUR OR TWO EARLY IF MOST OF PRECIP ENDS
EARLY. BFG

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 346 PM PST...

SYNOPSIS...A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL REPORTS OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW TODAY...WITH
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AS LOW AS SEA LEVEL THIS MORNING. LEVELS HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY RISING OUT NEAR THE COAST AS WARMER AIR GRADUALLY
SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MANY INLAND SITES HAVE NOT
WARMED UP VERY MUCH TODAY...WITH ALL SITES IN ZONE 4 LESS THAN 32F
AND MOST SITES BELOW 2500FT IN ZONES 3 AND 76 RANGING FROM 27-35F
AS OF 2PM. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ON THE VALLEY FLOORS IN MOST ALL
INTERIOR ZONES TODAY. SO FAR THE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO A COUPLE OF INCHES AROUND 500 FEET. IN ADDITION...ALL
THE WEB CAMS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES HAVE BEEN SHOWING PERIODIC
SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE WEAK TONIGHT
AND THE CHANCE FOR LOW TOP CONVECTION AND BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW AND
HAIL SEEMS FAIRLY LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ALL INTERIOR ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS PERIODIC
SNOW CONTINUES TO OCCUR AT VERY LOW ELEVATIONS IN ALL INTERIOR
ZONES. THIS FIRST SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
TRAVEL HAZARDOUS ON ALL THE ROADS THIS EVENING. EVEN AFTER THE
SNOW SHOWERS END...ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS
DUE TO LOCAL POCKETS OF ICE AND SLUSH.

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS MAY
START TO INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TAKES THE LID OFF AND
ALLOWS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY MAY OFFSET THIS AND SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LINGER SHOWERS...MOSTLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN... SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY USHERING IN
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE. A COLD AND DRY AIR MASS WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING EXTREMELY COLD
CONDITIONS TO NW CA AGAIN. ONCE AGAIN WE ARE EXPECTING RECORD COLD
TEMPERATURES IN ALL ZONES SUNDAY. IT MAY BE THE COLDEST MORNING SO
FAR THIS SEASON IF THE NE WINDS DECOUPLE. HARD FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL BE NEEDED FOR ZONES 1 AND 2 AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. INLAND ZONES WILL DIP
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH POCKETS OF ICE ON ROADWAYS AND
PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG SUNDAY MORNING.

DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS UP
OFFSHORE. EVEN THOUGH THE AIR MASS WARMS UP ALOFT...MANY LOWER
ELEVATIONS SITES WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD MONDAY MORNING. I AM
NOT SURE IF WE WILL NEED ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE COAST.
IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE ON MONDAY.

LONG-RANGE...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST FOR THE MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. MODELS PROG THE
TROUGH TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR QUITE SOME TIME...BRINGING A
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH
THE COAST BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. RAISED POPS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING MODEL CONFIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND REMAIN
FAIRLY STEADY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STP

AVIATION...STORM SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NW CA THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA ALONG THE COAST WITH IFR
CONDITIONS IN -SHSN ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY SLY
WINDS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT TO NLY IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPO LOWER IN STRONGER SHOWERS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM
N TO S OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR INTO SAT AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SLY WINDS RISING QUICKLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WITH BUOY OBS REPORTING 20G30KT OVER PZZ450. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
N AND RISE SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN BUILDING
SHORT PERIOD SEAS. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN MODELS...AND
MARGINAL GALES AND STEEP HAZ SEAS FCST OVERNIGHT INTO SAT OVER THE
OFFSHORE ZONES...ELECTED TO HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUN WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PST TONIGHT ABOVE 1500 FEET
FOR THE CAZ003-004-076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST SATURDAY PZZ450.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY PZZ470-475.

GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PST SATURDAY PZZ470.

GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM PST SATURDAY PZZ475.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PST SUNDAY PZZ455.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1142 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

CANCELLED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THERE WAS LITTLE INDICATION THAT ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION.
NEITHER THE RAP13 NOR THE HRRR INDICATED ANY ADDITIONAL QPF DURING
THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...REDUCED POPS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...
WILL HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR
IN RESPONSE TO A REPORT FROM A TRAINED SPOTTER WHO OBSERVED AREAS
OF DENSE FOG IMPACTING THE INTERSTATE FROM NEWCASTLE TO SILT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ALLOWED THE WARNING ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM GLENWOOD SPRINGS
EASTWARD TO EXPIRE. REMAINING HIGHLIGHTS WILL STAY IN EFFECT AS
ASPEN...MONTROSE AND SOME POINTS IN BETWEEN CONTINUE TO REPORT
SNOW AT THIS HOUR. A BUSY DAY!

UPDATE ISSUED AT 514 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

LOCAL WEBCAMS SHOW SUN PEAKING THROUGH THE CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. WEBCAMS FACING NORTH AND WEST OF PAGOSA SPRINGS SHOW
PLENTY OF CLEARING SO DROPPED THE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THOSE TWO AREAS.
REMAINING WARNINGS WILL STAY IN PLACE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 455 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEFINITE CLEARING FROM THE ROAN/TAVAPUTS
NORTH AND ALSO AREAS TO THE W AND SW. WITH THAT IN MIND...DROPPED
THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN THOSE AREAS. KEPT REMAINING
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT SINCE
BEST SUPPORT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. ANTICIPATE THE
HIGHLIGHTS IN DURANGO AND PAGOSA SPRINGS WILL BE COMING DOWN EARLY
TOO BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS BEFORE DOING
ANYTHING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THE STRONG AND COLD WINTER STORM WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT TONIGHT AS
THE CORE OF THE 140-150 KT UPPER JET LIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.
LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED ARCHULETA COUNTY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS TEMPS AT PAGOSA WERE NOW FALLING. HAVE PRUNED SOME MORE
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE W AND
NW. LEFT THE CO MTNS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CO VALLEYS UNDER
WINTER WARNINGS/ADVISORIES AS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH CONCERNED THAT DURANGO
AND PAGOSA ZONES MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING CRITERIA.

WHILE SOME CLEARING OBSERVED LATE TODAY IN NW CO AND NE UT...EXPECT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG TO FILL IN MANY OF THESE VALLEYS
LATER TONIGHT AS INVERSIONS SET UP. THE ARCTIC-TINGED AIR WILL
RESULT IN VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
WIDESPREAD AND FRESH SNOW COVER...DAYTIME RECOVERY ON THURSDAY WILL
BE RESTRICTED AS THE EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN. A WEAKER
AND DRIER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW OVER THE SAN JUANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THE DOOR TO THE ARCTIC REMAINS OPEN THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT BRISK
SHOTS OF FRESH FRIGID AIR AND SOME NEW SNOW. BY TUESDAY A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE WEST WILL CUT OFF THE ARCTIC EXPRESS FOR THIS
REGION. SO THEN VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY SETUP FOR CONTINUED
FRIGID CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY THE BROAD WESTERN TROUGH IS RELOADING. THE NEXT OPEN
ALASKAN DISTURBANCE IS DIVING DUE SOUTH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW
AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BACKS THE
UPPER WINDS TO WEST THEN SOUTHWEST. 700MB TEMPERATURE CLIMBS TO
-12/SOUTH AND -16/NORTH...WHILE THE 300-500MB LAYER STARTS TO
COOL. THIS WILL ASSIST WITH SNOWFALL PRODUCTION BY RAISING THE
SNOW PRODUCTION LAYER UP TO THE MTN TOP LAYER AND STEEPENS THE
LAPSE RATE. THE TROUGH PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
BEST SNOW ACCUMULATION SHIFTING FRONT SW TO NW (SKI) SLOPES. SNOW
PERSISTS OVER THE NW COLORADO MTNS INTO MONDAY AS THE H5 -40C COLD
CORE BRUSHES THE NORTH. THIS IS IMPRESSIVELY COLD AIR AND WILL
LIKELY SCOUR OUT ANY WEAK INVERSIONS THAT HAVE FORMED. HIGHLIGHTS
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE.

BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE PROGRESSES
INLAND SOMEWHAT. THIS BRINGS A QUICK MODIFICATION TO THE COLD MID-
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL LIKELY LOCK THE SNOW
COVERED VALLEYS INTO WHAT WILL BECOME STRONG AND PERSISTENT
INVERSIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER
SOME AREAS OF SNOW WILL PERSIST LATE TONIGHT ALONG OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED SLOPES AND DRAINAGES. TAF SITES THAT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
SNOW AT TIMES UNTIL AROUND 09Z...INCLUDE KASE/KMTJ/KTEX. LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
INCREASE A LITTLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...05/19Z-06/00Z...AS THE NEXT
WAVE PASSES. IN ADDITION TO THE LINGERING SNOW...PATCHY FOG WILL
FORM IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AND MAY IMPACT AREA TAF SITES.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ007-008.

UT...NONE.

UPDATE...NL
SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...EH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TALLAHASSEE FL

300 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2013

...Unseasonably warm weather to continue...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Northwest parts of our forecast area (roughly DTS-DHN) have been
experiencing a relatively persistent rain band through the evening
and into the early part of the overnight hours. Looking at surface
observations, there is a subtle boundary near the Florida
Panhandle coast. Southerly winds with higher thetae values over
the water stand in contrast to backed winds and lower thetae
values over the land areas. North of the boundary, there appears
to be a narrow band of stronger southwesterly winds in the 1-2km
AGL layer (around 30 knots or so). It is in this region of more
focused moisture transport and isentropic ascent that the rain
band has been focused. Rainfall rates have not been trivial - dual
pol estimates from EOX and EVX are around 0.5-1.0"/hr in narrow
bands of training echoes. QPF and PoPs were increased for the
06-12z period in these areas earlier this evening (around 05z).
The HRRR and other CAM output do show a continuation of rain
showers in the NW third of our area through the day today, but the
rain is of a more scattered nature. Thus, PoPs were pared back for
the 12-00z timeframe, but maintained due to continued isentropic
ascent in nearly saturated layers.

Highs were adjusted to be close to yesterday: mid 70s in cloudier
areas in our northwest, and around 80 elsewhere. The record high in
Tallahassee today is 81, which is what we are forecasting so we
should get close to record highs barring any unforseen cloud cover.

Finally, there is the issue of fog during the pre-dawn and early
morning hours. A Dense Fog Advisory was issued earlier as fog was
causing visibility to decrease at many observing sites, and when the
visibility in Tallahassee was around 1/8 mile. Since then, a
mid-level cloud deck has caused fog to dissipate and redevelop, with
substantial fluctuations in visibility. However, with each new set
of observations that comes in, there is usually at least one or two
sites that are down around 1/4 mile. Therefore, the advisory will be
maintained as is, but will be re-evalulated closer to sunrise.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Strong upper ridge will remain in place over Florida tonight into
Saturday, keeping temperatures well above normal and in sharp
contrast to the record cold temperatures in the plains states.
Boundary between the airmasses will stretch from far northeast
Alabama into central Louisiana tonight, and will slowly push
southeastward Friday into Saturday. Ahead of the front (away from
the center of the upper ridge), isolated showers will be possible
across SE Alabama tonight and Friday. Very warm temperatures are
expected through Friday night, with highs in the lower 80s and
lows generally in the 60s. The highs on Friday will be very close
to record temperatures for the date.

The cold front will edge into the forecast area on Saturday before
stalling and lifting back to the north Saturday night. This will
lead to a wide range of temperatures across the region, with
temperatures forecast to hold steady in the 50s in southeast
Alabama, while upper 70s are expected south and east of the
boundary.

Fog will continue to be of concern over the next few nights.
However, the more southeasterly direction expected tonight is not
as favorable a trajectory for advecting the moist Gulf airmass
across the cool Apalachee Bay waters. By Friday night, the flow is
expected to be weaker, which will also limit the potential for
advection fog. So while widespread fog is expected, the potential
for widespread dense fog is much less certain.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
The cold front will push back north as a warm front Saturday night,
meaning that our area never gets into the deeper moisture or lift
behind the front. The drier return flow on Sunday is short-lived,
as a second much stronger cold front pushes through the area late
Monday night into early Tuesday. This front has the upper support
to push all the way south across the FL peninsula, putting AL, GA,
and northern FL well into the cold air. As a result, the very warm
temperatures of the past week could drop by 15 to 20 degrees
behind the front on Tuesday and Wednesday, with readings in the
50s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia to the 50s and lower 60s across
northern FL.

Precipitation will generally be scattered through the period with
a chance of thunderstorms along and ahead of the first front
Saturday and again with the much more vigorous front on Monday.

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...
Current conditions are varying widely early this morning due to a
scattered deck of mid-level clouds between 7000-10000 feet. This is
causing fog to dissipate and redevelop with flight categories at
some of the terminals varying between VFR and LIFR in the space of a
couple hours. The bottom line is that when mid-level cloud cover
thins a bit, there is a good chance of IFR/LIFR with fog through
14-15z this morning at TLH, ABY, and VLD, and perhaps also at ECP. A
band of rain showers near DHN should prevent much fog there although
CIGS should be in the IFR range. We expect VFR after 15z, with
another round of fog developing tomorrow evening.

.MARINE...
Light to moderate southeasterly flow will continue over the
coastal waters through Friday night as high pressure remains
anchored off the east coast. A front will slide into the western
waters on Saturday before lifting back to the north Saturday
night, with southeasterly flow continuing into early next week.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected the next several days. Dense
fog is likely in spots over the next several nights with poor
mixing and light winds.

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the western
half of the forecast area through Saturday. Total rainfall amounts
should generally remain below 1 inch, which will lead to only
minimal impacts on area rivers and streams.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 81 59 78 63 75 / 20 10 10 10 30
Panama City 75 65 76 65 70 / 30 10 10 30 30
Dothan 76 63 80 59 62 / 40 20 10 30 50
Albany 79 61 81 64 69 / 30 10 10 20 40
Valdosta 81 61 81 62 78 / 20 10 10 10 20
Cross City 81 59 81 59 79 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 76 64 74 66 73 / 10 10 10 10 20

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland
Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben
Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...None.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee
River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Hollingsworth
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Camp

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1047 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND WAVER OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING
ALONG IT. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
STATES WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO THE UPSTATE AND WILL
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN MIDLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS AROUND DAYBREAK. LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN HAS
INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...HOWEVER LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TRACK FOR LOWER TO MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE POST FRONTAL WITH THE
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING OCCURRING WITH THE
OVERRUNNING OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COLD DOME OF
THE DENSE POLAR AIR MASS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAK
NEAR 1.65 INCHES SATURDAY AND REMAIN AROUND 1.3 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND BECOMES MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. EXPECT COLD-AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 40S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS. EXPECT
A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WEDGE
SETS UP. TEMPERATURES IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WILL
BE A CHALLENGE BUT FORECASTING LOWER 50S.

WARM ADVECTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
FORM OF A 40-KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE THE WEDGE FROM
THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AS THE FORECAST AREA FALLS BACK INTO THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PROMOTE A
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FOR MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL ROTATE TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION MONDAY PROMOTING WARM-AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 60S NORTH AND
LOWER 70S SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH A WARM MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AGAIN CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.7
INCHES...POOLING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DECREASING
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MIXING AND JUST SHALLOW MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
HELPED CAUSE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING LOWERING CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT. THE NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATE MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BY 09Z. BELIEVE WIND WILL HELP HOLD UP CEILINGS AND WE
HAVE FORECASTED MAINLY LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS. AN AVERAGE OF THE MAV
AND MET MOS PLUS THE 00Z HRRR INDICATE IFR CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE
10 TO 14 GMT TIME FRAME. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD BECAUSE HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT. FOG WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BECAUSE OF MIXING.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT THAT LLWS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT. BASED ON THE LATEST KCAE 88D VAD WIND PROFILE PLUS
THE NAM WE HAVE INCLUDED LLWS IN THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY AND REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH AT COLUMBIA WAS 82 TODAY. THIS TIED THE RECORD FOR THE
DATE SET IN 1998. THE ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE
MONTH OF DECEMBER AT COLUMBIA IS 83. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN
THE COLUMBIA AREA DATE BACK TO 1887.

THE HIGH AT AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD TODAY WAS ALSO 82. THIS TIED THE
RECORD FOR THE DATE SET IN 1998. THIS TEMPERATURE ALSO TIED THE
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN AUGUSTA. DAILY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN AUGUSTA DATE BACK TO 1873.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1250 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ZONES. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT.

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. FORECAST WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
ISSUES WITH IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH ARE
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER FL/SE GA AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SUBTLE IMPULSES MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF RAIN TRENDS. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND LEANED HEAVILY
TOWARD RAP SOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM. AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE VERY
CLOSE TO ATLANTA BUT MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
METRO AREA IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MACON AND ATHENS THROUGH 8AM BEFORE EXITING
THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER AREA OF RAIN ALLOWED ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHEAST GA TO MIX..WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 1-2 MILES. WHILE
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AND WILL DROP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

SURFACE FRONT NEAR ARKLATEX WILL SLOWLY TREK ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TODAY WITH GOOD GULF MOISTURE SPREADING AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW MUCAPE OF 400-900 NORTH OF A LINE FROM AMERICUS TO
MILLEDGEVILLE. BEST SHEAR AXIS REMAINS WEST OF FORECAST AREA...
HOWEVER ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS NORTH AND WEST GA
18-06Z. SEVERE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FRONT STALLS OR DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW AN INCREASED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED
THUNDER ONCE AGAIN

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK IN LINE AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV AND
MET...LEANING TOWARD WARMER GUIDANCE EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AT THE CLIMATE STATIONS.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER N GA FORECAST TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL GA AND S DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS N GA FRIDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN
GENERAL ON SATURDAY AS A MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA.

GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH COLD AIR DAMMING SETTING UP SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING MONDAY. RAIN AND DRIZZLE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH THE SMALLEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF CENTRAL GA.

GFS/EUROPEAN SIMILAR WITH BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO N GA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY THEN EXITING THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER N AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN PRECIP CHANCES WILL END. SOME
MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

LARGE VARIATIONS OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM N TO S UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE PLUNGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OCCURS.

BDL

CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-05

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 77 1977 39 1984 59 1912 20 1935
1971 1886
1905
KATL 75 1998 33 1895 60 1998 20 1899
1977
KCSG 82 1977 45 1984 63 1994 26 1960
1957
KMCN 80 1977 44 1945 64 1912 22 2000
1901

RECORDS FOR 12-06

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAHN 77 1998 37 1992 59 1912 20 1937
1962
KATL 75 2001 25 1937 57 2011 14 1937
1998
1912
KCSG 78 1951 42 1992 63 2011 24 1962
1962
KMCN 78 1924 33 1937 63 1912 20 1937

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
TAF SITES CONTINUE WITH IFR AND SOME MVFR. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS GOING BACK DOWN TO IFR
WITH SOME LIFR BY 06Z. PATCHES OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT PREVAILING RAIN OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO
CONVECTION EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15KT FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 71 60 76 56 / 50 50 30 50
ATLANTA 72 62 74 49 / 50 50 70 80
BLAIRSVILLE 66 60 66 46 / 60 80 90 100
CARTERSVILLE 72 63 75 45 / 50 60 90 100
COLUMBUS 76 63 79 55 / 50 40 20 60
GAINESVILLE 67 61 72 51 / 50 60 70 80
MACON 76 61 80 60 / 50 20 20 40
ROME 74 62 74 45 / 60 70 100 100
PEACHTREE CITY 72 64 77 49 / 50 40 60 80
VIDALIA 76 62 81 63 / 50 20 10 20

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

1030 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE ZONES. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT.

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. FORECAST WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013/

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.

LARGE VARIATIONS OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM N TO S UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE PLUNGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OCCURS.

BDL

CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-05

RECORDS FOR 12-06

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
TAF SITES ARE A MIX IFR/LIFR...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-16Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL IMPACT MCN/AHN. SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW AND
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF TAF SITES FOR NOW. WINDS ARE SOUTH WITH ATL
MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEEDS/VISIBILITY/WEATHER.

ATWELL

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

649 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. FORECAST WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013/

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.

LARGE VARIATIONS OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM N TO S UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE PLUNGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OCCURS.

BDL

CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-05

RECORDS FOR 12-06

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEEDS/VISIBILITY/WEATHER.

ATWELL

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ATWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

639 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013/

ATWELL

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.

LARGE VARIATIONS OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM N TO S UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE PLUNGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OCCURS.

BDL

CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-05

RECORDS FOR 12-06

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
TAF SITES ARE A MIX IFR/LIFR...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-16Z. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL IMPACT MCN/AHN. SHRA
AND ISOLATED TS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW AND
HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF TAF SITES FOR NOW. WINDS ARE SOUTH WITH ATL
MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5-10KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS/WIND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEEDS/VISIBILITY/WEATHER.

ATWELL

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ATWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

425 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT CONTINUE TO HAVE
ISSUES WITH IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH ARE
PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER FL/SE GA AS BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE SUBTLE IMPULSES MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT
EXACT TIMING OF RAIN TRENDS. THE RAP HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
AREA OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA AND LEANED HEAVILY
TOWARD RAP SOLUTION IN THE NEAR TERM. AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE VERY
CLOSE TO ATLANTA BUT MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
METRO AREA IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE MORNING RUSH HOUR...
IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF MACON AND ATHENS THROUGH 8AM BEFORE EXITING
THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER AREA OF RAIN ALLOWED ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHEAST GA TO MIX..WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AND VISIBILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO 1-2 MILES. WHILE
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AND WILL DROP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

ATWELL

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY.

LARGE VARIATIONS OF TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM N TO S UNTIL
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN THE PLUNGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA OCCURS.

BDL

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 12-05

RECORDS FOR 12-06

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
TAF SITES ARE A MIX IFR/MVFR WITH PATCHY LIFR BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. BASED UPON RAINFALL EXPECT ALL TAF SITE LIFR/IFR BY
DAYBREAK WITH CIGS BELOW 010 AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 1SM.
COULD SEE PATCHY VISIBILITIES TO 1/2SM BUT DO NOT HAVE IT IN TAF
SITE AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL IMPACT
CSG/MCN/AHN BUT BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOULD STAY EAST OF
ATL. WINDS ARE MAINLY SOUTH WITH ATL MAINLY SOUTHWEST...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHT 7KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION STAYING OUT OF
SOUTHWEST.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY/CIGS/WEATHER BASED UPON
TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG AND LOWERING CIGS.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS.

ATWELL

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ATWELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

215 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON COLDER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A PUSH OF EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM...LIKELY ENHANCED BY FRESH SNOW COVER.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX.
COLDER/DRIER ARCTIC AIR WAS STEADILY SPREADING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S AND DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY OFFSET ANY DIURNAL WARMING TODAY
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO DIP A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING THEN BECOME
STEADY. THOUGH APPROACHING AIR MASS IS DRIER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
LOW CLOUDINESS WITHIN COLD ADVECTION AND EVEN A NARROW BAND OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR. THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND A TIGHTENING IN THE THERMAL GRADIENT AROUND NEAR 800
MB...WHICH THE RAP DEPICTS NICELY WITH AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
CLOSELY TIED TO CURRENT RADAR RETURNS. THE RAP CONTINUES TO SPREAD
THIS FORCING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING IT PRIOR TO MIDDAY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY ERODE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH PRESENCE OF
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL MINOR AMPLITUDE
MID-LEVEL WAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME DEGREE OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...SERIES OF FAST
MOVING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TIGHTEN LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...FRONT FRONTOGENETIC BANDING DEVELOPING
SNOW FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO OHIO. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FOCUS AXIS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA LATER TODAY
INTO FRIDAY...WITH FARTHEST NORTH SOLUTIONS CLIPPING SOUTHEAST TIER
OF WFO LOT CWA COUNTIES WITH AT BEST A MINOR ACCUMULATION OF LESS
THAN A HALF INCH WITH DISTURBANCES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH PERSISTENT INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF
20S/LOW 30S TODAY...THEN HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRI/SAT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO THE TEENS
SOUTHEAST.

ENERGY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTH INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST COAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME
MINOR DETAIL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE...THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS IN A BROAD SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. DRY EASTERLY FLOW IN MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL LIKELY BE A BIT SLOW TO SATURATE AS WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY...THOUGH LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH CURRENT MODEL QPF SUGGESTING PERHAPS 2-3 INCHES
ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE TAPERING TO FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING. IF THIS SNOW COVER
DOES MATERIALIZE...ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WOULD LIKELY
PRODUCE COLDER TEMPS EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. COLDEST PERHAPS WOULD BE
TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN WEAK RIDGE AXIS WOULD SUPPORT BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERED OUT MID MORNING. A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINS OVER E CENTRAL IA BUT WAS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO PER MODELS DRYING UP THIS REMAINING
POCKET OF LOWER LEVEL RH. LOCAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH FRI WITH LOWER LEVELS
REMAINING DRY AS THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURVING SE FROM
WESTERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVES A BIT
FURTHER E BEHIND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NE THEN NNE
OVER JAMES BAY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY.

TREND OF WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING HAS BEEN TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SLOWLY RELAXES AS THE
EASTERN ONTARIO LOW INCHES FURTHER AWAY. DIRECTION HAS BEEN
GENERALLY W WITH SOME SUBTLE BACKING AND VEERING NOTED BETWEEN
250 AND 290 DEG. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE INTO A MORE WNW-NW DIRECTION
LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE LARGE RIDGE
GRADUALLY MOVES A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
ONTARIO LOW.

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

*HIGH ALL ELEMENTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION +/- 20 DEG TIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

LENNING

.MARINE...
214 PM CST

STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN EARLIER TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LAKE...WHERE FREQUENT GALES TO 35 KT CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME
THESE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN AS
THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH WITH WINDS GALES COMING TO AN END.
FREEZING SPRAY LOOKS TO BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT.

FURTHER SOUTH THIS EVENING A CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP WAVES ELEVATED ALONG THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS GOING FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE THRU
FRI MORNING. WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKE...WHILE
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO KEEP WAVES ELEVATED. SO COULD SEE THE
NEED FOR ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR INDIANA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH A MUCH LIGHTER GRADIENT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OVERHEAD SUN. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUN...ARRIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MON.
THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS QUICKLY TO 29.6 INCHES MON EVENING JUST NORTH OF
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING GRADIENT
AND POSSIBLE GALES FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE. THEN A
BRIEF LULL MAY OCCUR WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING EAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE MORNING...THEN A TIGHT GRADIENT RETURNS
TUE NIGHT.

BEACHLER

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

157 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...

* MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...

*HIGH ALL ELEMENTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION +/- 20 DEG TIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

LENNING

.MARINE...
321 AM CST

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING
DRAGGED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE LAST EVENING. WINDS TURNED
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT ARE VEERING TO WEST THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT. IN THE TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE CLOSER TO
THE LOW...GALES TO 40 KTS WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE ALSO
WILL BE WINDY...BUT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONSIDERABLY LESS FREQUENT ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. LATEST 3 AM CST
SHIP OBS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE LAKE HAD WIND SPEEDS
ONLY IN THE TEENS...WHILE SHIP OBS IN THE NORTHERN LAKE HAD WINDS
IN THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE.

DEBATED WHETHER TO TRIM THE END OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FALLS OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. DECIDED WITH SUCH COLD AIR AND A NORTHWEST
FETCH...WAVES SHOULD BE EASY TO MAINTAIN...AND GUSTS INTO THE MID
20 KNOT RANGE MAY WELL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1154 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS TIL LATE AFTERNOON.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

TRS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

*HIGH ALL ELEMENTS...WITH WIND DIRECTION +/- 20 DEG TIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

LENNING

.MARINE...
321 AM CST

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1013 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* GUSTY WEST WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING REST OF TODAY AND LOOSING
GUSTS AT SUNDOWN.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 16Z...

ORD AND MDW HAVE BOTH LOST THEIR MVFR CIGS IN THE PAST HOUR.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT IT WILL REMAIN VFR AT ORD WHILE
MDW WILL LIKELY BE SCT V BKN TIL 17Z. STILL SOME MVFR CIGS
REMAINING OVER SE AND E CENTRAL IA...FAR NW IL AND FAR S CENTRAL
WI BUT MODELS DRY UP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEFORE IT MUCH
FURTHER E.

GENERAL TREND IN WIND SPEEDS HAS BEEN A VERY GRADUAL DECREASE AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRES
IN EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NE TO JAMES BAY BY
00Z. DIRECTION GENERALLY WESTERLY WITH SOME SUBTLE BACKING AND
VEERING NOTED BETWEEN 250 AND 280 DEG. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO
WNW-NW LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AS THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES CURVING SE FROM WESTERN CANADA TO ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
GRADUALLY MOVES A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING
ONTARIO LOW.

TRS

PREVIOUS... UPDATED 12Z...

DESPITE POCKETS OF VFR THE TREND THIS MORNING IS MORE LIKELY TO BE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MVFR. SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER CIGS
COMPARED TO EARLIER TAFS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL VERY GRADUALLY VEER NORTHWESTERLY
AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING WE SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS. ALSO INCLUDED
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WHICH ACTUALLY IS EXPECTED TO
BE MORE LIKE FLURRIES AND HOPEFULLY NOT ANY SORT OF PROBLEM.

LENNING

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOSS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND OTHER ELEMENTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

LENNING

.MARINE...
321 AM CST

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

816 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS MORNING.

* GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING AND VEERING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.

TRS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LENNING

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF LOSS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND OTHER ELEMENTS.

TRS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

LENNING

.MARINE...
321 AM CST

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

551 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF VFR.

* GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY...DIMINISHING AND VEERING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.

* PERIODS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.

LENNING

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

LENNING

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF HIGHER CEILINGS THIS MORNING.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS AND OTHER ELEMENTS.

LENNING

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATE. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR LOWER EARLY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

LENNING

.MARINE...
321 AM CST

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

345 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
345 AM CST

RATZER

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...

* MVFR CIGS WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF IFR.

* GUSTY WEST WINDS VERY GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWEST.

LENNING

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOVING
INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT HAS DRAGGED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND SLOWLY TURNING
NORTHWEST BY EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ALSO HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP DURING THE MORNING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
POCKETS OF IFR ALSO ARE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...SO
PERIODS OF 600-800 FT CIGS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

LENNING

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING
AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT IFR WILL NOT DEVELOP.

LENNING

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...CHC SNOW...WITH SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS.
MONDAY...SLT CHC SNOW EARLY.
TUESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

KJB

.MARINE...
321 AM CST

LENNING

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868 UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
THURSDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

219 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

...Updated short term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

At 12z Thursday a 1400-160kt 300mb jet extended from northeast
Colorado into the western Great Lakes. Another upper level jet was
located near the based of the 500mb trough that was positioned from
southern California into southwest Montana. A -25 to -32c 500mb
thermal trough was located near the four corners region. A surface
to 850mb ridge axis was located across from western Nebraska into
western Oklahoma and a surface cold front extended from eastern
Colorado south southeast across eastern New Mexico into west
central Texas.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Upper level through that was located across southern California
and Nevada earlier today will track east and cross New Mexico by
late day. Ahead of this this upper trough some mid level moisture
will linger across western Kansas. Backing 700mb winds ahead of
this upper wave appears to enhance frontogenisis across portions
of southwest Kansas late today and early this evening which may
give rise to a period of steady light to moderate snow. Both the
NAM, GFS, and even the RAP hints at enhanced precipitation briefly
ahead of this wave along this baroclinic zone so will follow this
trend through midnight as the upper level trough moves out into
the central high plains. Given the potential for a period of
steadier snow early tonight could easily see snowfall
accumulations in the one to two inch range given the high liquid
to snow ratio. The area more favorable for this measurable
snowfall still appears to be along and south of a Ulysses to Dodge
City to Pratt line. Snow totals of around two inches still not out
of the question near the Oklahoma border so will trim several
counties out of the current winter weather advisory.

Tonight the dewpoint will be at or several degrees below zero
under mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be slow to fall this
evening but at this time given these expected low dewpoints, last
nights temperatures across northwest Kansas, and the low levels
cooling by a couple more degrees have decided to stay close to the
guidance for overnight lows. Given these overnight lows ranging
from around 1 degree in west central Kansas to near 10 degrees in
south central Kansas along with wind speeds of around 10 mph the
wind chills by early Friday morning are expected to fall back into
the -8 to -15 degree range. The coldest wind chills early Friday
morning will be across west central Kansas so will be issuing a
wind chill advisory for this area late tonight/early Friday.

On Friday the upper level trough will move east into the mid
Mississippi valley. Subsidence behind this disturbance may give
rise to some breaks of sun late in the day as high pressure at the
surface will continue to build into western Kansas. Despite to
break of sunshine the 900-850mb temperatures continue to support
highs only in the teens Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Friday night:

Sfc high pressure will shift off to the east Friday night. This will
result in northeasterly winds eventually shifting southeast on the backside
of said departing high. A cold night is expected with minimums near
0F. Would not rule out a few negative values if skies clear more than
expected. Will have to watch for the potential for a wind chill advisory
during the overnight and morning hours.

Saturday and beyond:

The forecast becomes a bit more interesting during the weekend. An amplified
trof will eject from the central Rockies and out across the plains by
Sunday. This wave does have some upper level dynamics associated with
it (140-150 kt jet streak traverses across the forecast area of responsibility).
At the low levels, fairly intense warm air advection, 280-290 Kelvin
isentropic lift, and 850-600 hPa increasing frontogenesis will lead
to snow late Saturday and into Sunday. The more enhanced area of said
parameters is forecast along and north of the 850 hPa pressure perturbation
...basically the northern half of the forecast area. Models still show
low end snow advisory amounts along and north of highway 96. Even some
of the GEFS members show 2-4" of snow. There is huge bust potential
in temperatures for Sunday, should this snow/snow pack/cloud cover come
into fruition. The ECE shows a high of 8 for KDDC versus 22 from the
MEX. Will apply a slight bias towards the ECMWF solution versus the
GFS. Boise verification shows this guidance doing better than the
MEX with the current cold air mass over Kansas.

After Sunday, the forecast will remain precipitation free as isentropic
downglide and subsidence develops in the wake of the departing synoptic
trof. There is some question of when this cold air will be dislodged
and more of a low level 850 hPa downslope plume will develop. The ECMWF
indicates this possibility of seeing "warmer" temperatures (i.e. above
freezing) by mid to late next week. The deterministic runs have been
fairly consistent over the last few days.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

An upper level disturbance will cross western Kansas late this
afternoon/early this evening. This will result in lowering
ceilings along with improving the chances for light snow at DDC
and GCK. Based on the 12z BUFR soundings the better chance for
snow at DDC and GCK will be from 21z Thursday to 03z Friday with
the ceilings lowering between 21z Thursday and 00z Friday into
MVFR category.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 5 15 0 16 / 70 0 0 30
GCK 2 15 0 13 / 50 0 0 30
EHA 2 13 1 17 / 80 0 0 30
LBL 5 15 0 15 / 80 0 0 30
HYS 4 15 0 15 / 20 0 0 40
P28 10 21 4 20 / 50 10 0 40

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from Midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 9
AM CST /8 AM MST/ Friday FOR KSZ043-044-061>063.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 PM CST this evening FOR
KSZ084>088.

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

229 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

...Updated for the long term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

At 12z Wednesday a 300mb jet extended from southern California
into far western Nebraska. A -35c to -37c 500mb low was located
over southeastern Idaho with an upper level trough extending
southwest of this upper low into southern California. Ahead of
this upper level trough 80 to 90meter 12hour height rises were
observed near the four corners region which was where the left
exit region of a 300mb +100kt jet was positioned. A 700mb
baroclinic zone stretched from the four corners region across
western Kansas and into southeastern Nebraska with an area of
higher dewpoints observed along this baroclinic zone. The 850mb
temperatures at 12z Wednesday across the central plains varied
from -3c at Amarillo to -9c at Dodge city to -16c at North Platte.
This a 18c to 25c drop when comparing the 850mb temperatures from 12z
Wednesday to 12z Tuesday. Dodge City and North Platte soundings
from 12z also indicated a fairly deep layer of moisture which
extended from near the surface to at least the 800mb level.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

19z visible satellite loop indicating some clearing skies across
western Kansas as the low clouds gradually erode. Further west mid
level cloud cover/moisture was on the increase and this appears to
be related to a 700mb baroclinic zone that extended from northeast
Colorado into Nebraska. Tonight 700mb frontogenesis will be
improving along this mid level baroclinic zone as the right
entrance region of a 300mb jet crosses western Kansas. Based on
the NAM and RAP at 18z Wednesday this 700mb baroclinic zone should
be located across northeast Colorado 18z and based on the latest
composite mosaic radar loop these models appear to have a decent
handle on this. As a result will follow the 700mb baroclinic zone
from NAM and RAP overnight and place the better chances for
measurable snow along this boundary given the improving
frontogenesis and the location of the right entrance region of an
upper level jet as it crosses the central plains during the
overnight hours.

Initial thoughts for snow amounts tonight...a brief period of
steady light to even moderate snow may accompany the jet steak
which may result in a quick inch of snow across portions of west
central and north central Kansas. Have therefore place snow
accumulations of 1 to around 1.5 inches in this this area between
00z Thursday and 12z Thursday. Further south some light
snow/flurries will still be possible, however given the loss of
the upper level dynamics lower snow amounts are anticipated.

On Thursday the better mid level forcing will be located near the
Oklahoma border through much of the day as a southern branch upper
level disturbance approaches southwest Kansas from New Mexico.
Another brief period of steady light to moderate snow will be be
possible during the day across far southwest Kansas and near the
Oklahoma border. Once again 1 to 2 inches of snowfall will be
possible with this steadier snow and lower snow amounts further
north. At this time snow totals over the next 24 to 36 hours are
expected to be mainly between 1 to 2 inches so inserted these snow
totals into the hazardous weather outlook but will not issue a
winter weather advisory at this time.

Wind chill values towards daybreak will fall back mainly into the
5 to 10 degrees below zero range with wind chill readings
approaching -15c in a few locations of west central Kansas. On
Thursday as afternoon temperatures struggle to reach the 15 to
near 20 degree range the wind chill values are expected to be
mainly in the single digits.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

Friday night will see the strong arctic high pressure system shift
slightly to the east, with a southerly flow returning at the surface
in our western zones near the Colorado border. A trough of low
pressure will form in eastern Colorado Friday afternoon, and migrate
into far western Kansas overnight Friday night. On Saturday, a mid
level wave of low pressure will cross from the Rockies into the
Plains, and may bring a little snow to far western Kansas by noon
time, near the trough. The mid level lift and instability will move
across the rest of southwestern Kansas and spread light snow into
central Kansas Saturday afternoon. The large upper level trough at
H5 will slowly move eastward into plains Saturday night, and send
small waves of energy through the plains. This will support light
snow through Sunday, with a slight chance of snow in our east, east
of a Hays to Coldwater line, Sunday night. This snow event looks
very weak, and an inch or less of new snow is anticipated. After
Sunday night, the upper and lower support for snow will shift east
and we should see a slight warm up.

Friday night looks really cold with the arctic air extending well
south of us into Oklahoma. In addition, skies will be mostly clear
for much of the night, allowing temps to dive quickly after
sundown. For these reasons, some of our zones from Syracuse to
Dighton to Wakeeney may bottom out to the -2F degree range. light
easterly winds at 7 to 8 knots will still produce wind chill
readings in the advisory level, down in the -15F to -19F range. A
wind chill advisory may be needed for Friday night, but later shifts
can evaluate that. Saturday, Sunday and even Monday all look very
cold with maximum temperatures only in the teens and minimums in the
single digits. Tuesday will see a little warm up with south winds
returning. Highs Tuesday into Thursday will reach the 30s, while
low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s.

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

VFR conditions will prevail tonight with northerly winds at 15 to
20 knots gusting to around 25 knots at times. There is a slight
chance of light snow towards sunrise and have placed a TEMPO group
to account for this. Northerly winds then decrease to around 10
knots tomorrow morning.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 7 16 2 / 60 70 0 0
GCK 18 7 14 2 / 40 50 0 0
EHA 14 7 15 3 / 80 80 0 0
LBL 16 9 16 2 / 80 80 0 0
HYS 19 7 15 1 / 10 20 0 0
P28 25 12 19 5 / 50 50 10 0

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1151 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC COLD HAS ENTERED THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND FOR
A WHILE. SOME LIGHT SNOW FELL THIS MORNING...WITH HEAVIEST BANDS
OVER EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING NEARLY AN INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.
TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD BRING A
QUICK INCH IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT OTHERWISE THE COLD WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD IN THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE LEAD TO SNOWFALL ENDING AND
EVEN SOME CLEARING SKIES...AND HIGHS WERE A CHALLENGE OF BALANCING
THE ADDITIONAL SOLAR RADIATION WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS ARE A
BIT STRONGER THAN THE ORIGINAL FORECAST...BUT A BLEND OF 12Z MOS
GUIDANCE HANDLED THE STRONGER WINDS A LITTLE BETTER THAN MOST OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO AND PARTS OF NW KANSAS/SW
NEBRASKA WILL REACH LOWS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD
COLD VALUES. A QUICK CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL DUE TO A NARROW BAND
ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS AS SUGGESTED BY SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. A FEW
SPOTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70 COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...BUT ANY
SNOWFALL THAT DOES FALL WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT. SNOWFALL AND CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPS IN THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ONCE THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY AS COLD
AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD...850 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -20 C...VERY COLD
EVEN BY WINTER STANDARDS. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
ZERO...APPROACHING RECORD VALUES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AM VERY CONFIDENT ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO -15 TO -25...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO. IF SKIES CLEAR AS RAPID AS THE RUC IS INDICATING...EVEN
COLDER TEMPS/WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...COLD. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS...EVEN WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS WILL BE
NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT WILL FINALLY RELENT TOWARDS THE VERY END
OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AND WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN ADVISORY RANGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE IN SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE
FRESH SNOW PACK COMBINED WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING COULD TANK TO
NEAR 10 BELOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE AND
THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
WITH METARS SHOWING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT KGLD AND KMCK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AT BOTH
SITES SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

1016 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THURSDAY...COLD. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS...EVEN WITH
PARTIAL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH WIND CHILLS WILL BE
NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS AROUND
ZERO. MY CURRENT LOW TEMP FORECAST IS A CONSERVATIVE BLEND...AND IF
SKIES CLEAR NEAR DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE RECORD LOWS IN
THE -5 TO -15F BELOW ZERO RANGE. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS WE
WILL PROBABLY NEED TO CONSIDER WIND CHILL ADVISORIES BOTH NIGHTS.

MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE ON THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH. BEYOND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THE FORECAST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY DURING THESE PERIODS. I DECIDED AGAINST MENTION OF
FLURRIES...THOUGH I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD THURSDAY IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET SOME WEAK INSTABILITY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
LOOKS TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING
OVER THE PACIFIC NW MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SUNDAY. VERY GOOD
FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THIS
FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS LESS CONTINUITY ON THE TRACK AND THIS
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS OVER OUR CWA. DURING THIS
FORECAST UPDATE I BUMPED POPS UP SOME ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE
SNOW. BEST GUESS BASED ON A MEAN STORM TRACK PUTS SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE 1-3" RANGE OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF SETTING UP.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AND H5 PATTERN BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL. MODELS DO
ADVERTISE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS FINALLY APPROACHING (OR
GOING ABOVE) FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHERN JET STREAM
STILL APPEARS TO BE VERY ACTIVE HOWEVER SO ADDITIONAL REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD AIR COULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH RECORD VALUES TONIGHT.

CURRENT DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY (DEC 5)...
GOODLAND.....-8 (1972)
HILL CITY....-5 (1909)
BURLINGTON...-11 (1972)
MCCOOK.......-10 (1909)
YUMA.........-5
TRIBUNE......-2
COLBY........-8

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THURSDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...FS
CLIMATE...JJM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1116 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

A WELL DEFINED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SPORADIC ISOLATED THUNDER IS
SINKING SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE LARGELY
FOLLOWED THE SUGGESTION OF THE HRRR MODEL FOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DURING THE DAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO TONIGHT BASED ON ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FORECAST IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. TEMPS ARE
WARMING MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE RAIN TODAY...AND HAVE
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH EAST...NOW ALIGNED FROM WESTERN
OHIO DOWN THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION HAS BLOSSOMED ALONG
AND OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR ALREADY SEEING SOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
BAND. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE POP GRIDS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS...AS THERE ARE STILL A FEW STRAGGLING VALLEYS...STILL
REPORTING AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...THAT REFUSE TO MIX OUT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

VERY DYNAMIC WEATHER IS ON THE WAY AS MULTIPLE IMPACTS WILL AFFECT
THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND.

A DEEP AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED SOUTH ACROSS THE
OH/IN BORDER AND THEN ARCS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER AND THEN ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
FIRED UP ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY DOWN
THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OUT AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES ITS EASTWARD PUSH. MEANWHILE...EASTERN KENTUCKY
REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPERATURES MORE SUMMER-LIKE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COMPARED TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
DUSK AND THEN SETTLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MAKING A MORE DECISIVE PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER FOR THIS EVENT...SO
WILL ONLY CARRY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN THE EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...UNTIL THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TODAY AND GIVEN THAT THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN AT
LEAST SOME IN CLOUD LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OUT WEST ALREADY...WILL
INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER. GIVEN THE STRONGER WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...IT IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE COULD MIX
DOWN.

HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH AND BRINGS MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT STEADY
RAINS TO PICK UP TONIGHT...POSSIBLY FALLING HEAVY AT TIMES...AS WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE UP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

ON FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE OVERALL BEST LIFT
TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING RAMPS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS A BETTER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PASSES BY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF THUNDER
POTENTIALLY AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES THERE. THE BEST 12 HOUR
QPF WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR ON FRIDAY...WITH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
POSSIBLE...SO ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON RIVERS STILL LOOKS ON TARGET. TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THIS BATCH
OF RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WITH A BIT OF A
LIGHTER TREND OVERALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

FINALLY...AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ENOUGH COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY
UNDERCUT THE WARM NOSE ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A SNOW...SLEET...AND
PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/ DRIZZLE THREAT. IMPACTS FROM THIS LOOK TO BE
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT WORST AS THE GROUND WILL BE VERY WARM AND DEEPER
MOISTURE CUTS OFF QUICKLY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP CUTOFF WHERE
THE WINTRY MIX FALLS AND CREATES SOME TEMPORARY SLICK
CONDITIONS...MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SANDY HOOK TO
STANTON. ANOTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE WILL BE SOME REFREEZING THAT TAKES
PLACE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC AIR INVADES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S
NORTHWEST...TO AROUND 30 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

VERY COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTED BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BELIEVE IT OR NOT. THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE EXTENDED IS PROGGED TO FEATURE
COLD AND MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS...THERE WILL EXIST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF QUICKLY TO DRIZZLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FREE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL CHANGE
QUICKLY...HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...ALONG THE WESTERN
OF EDGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE THIS AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED SATURDAY NIGHT...IT WILL GET
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM...AND CARRIED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WITH
COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY FORM NORTH OF THE APPROACHING LOW LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING IN ON SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS ALL SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW AS MOIST
AIR OVERRUNS THE COLD SURFACE AIR MASS. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
RAIN SHOULD MELT MOST OR ALL OF THIS OF LATER IN THE DAY. THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN
IN LIQUID FORM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS
THEN EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST
MEXMOS AND ECEMOS NUMBERS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE
TWO FOR FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS ACROSS THE BOARD. PRECIPITATION
COULD BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD...BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS TUESDAY ONWARD WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE
UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE
40S FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MID 30S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH AND THEN STALLS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN
WITH IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. AN AMPLE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EAST OF I-75 THROUGH
15Z. SOUTH WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE DAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PADUCAH KY

1152 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Used the latest HRRR model to update wind and temperature fields
tonight as the front is just a tad faster but temperatures really
drop right behind the front. Otherwise forecast looks on track
with a few showers developing southwest of IND. This precipitation
should increase and spread southwest into our area later this
evening. New NAM is still a bit faster than other models with the
onset of freezing rain by about 3 hours but will not make any
changes at this point.

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

The 12Z models have sped up the arrival of the surface freezing
line, which is currently well past Kansas City and trucking this
way. The other trend is for a cooler overall solution, with many
areas quickly changing to sleet as the cold air arrives and then
quite a period of pure snow, especially across southern Illinois
and southeast Missouri.

Given that impacts now appear likely across southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois by late Thursday afternoon, will go ahead and
upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning at this time. Far northwest
areas will begin at 3 PM Thursday, and most of the area will begin
at 6 PM. The far southeast 4 counties of west Kentucky will not
start until Midnight Thursday Night, and some of that area may
not see problems until after daybreak. It will be a close call
down there for Friday morning.

Given the copious liquid equivalent precipitation forecast, there
will be the potential for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of icing, mainly over
west Kentucky and the Missouri Bootheel. Much of southeast
Missouri, southern Illinois and southwest Indiana will see mainly
sleet and snow with some locations receiving as much as a half a
foot before it is done. The precipitation should end as light snow
from west to east Friday afternoon and evening. An inch of snow
may still fall 00Z-03Z Saturday in the far southeast, so will
continue the Warning down there until 03Z.

In the meantime, it will be quite mild tonight ahead of the cold
front, and some scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two
will be possible mainly over the bootheel and west Kentucky
overnight tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Dry and chilly conditions are expected Saturday as high pressure
briefly settles over the northern U.S. As the high moves north, low
pressure will slide northeast from the western Gulf of Mexico,
skirting eastern portions of the PAH FA Sunday into Sunday night.
With cold air already in place, moisture pushed northward by this
weather system will be a wintry mix. ECMWF takes the low a bit
farther east than yesterday, and thus has backed off a bit on QPF.
GFS still shows significant moisture across our region late Saturday
night into Sunday. In either case, best moisture will be across
west Kentucky. Soundings continue to indicate a wintry mix, but
while yesterday`s run showed a majority freezing rain, today looks
more like an even mixture of freezing rain and sleet across west
Kentucky into southern portions of southeast Missouri. Farther
north and west, where temperatures will be colder and QPF will be
significantly lower, precipitation will be mainly light snow and
sleet.

Wintry precipitation is expected to transition to rain by Sunday
afternoon from the Pennyrile region west to the Land Between the
Lakes region in west Kentucky as temperatures climb a little above
freezing. This will help negate more significant ice accumulations.
Overall confidence is still not very high due to model
discrepancies, so kept snow and ice amounts fairly low for now.
Moisture is not as deep as our upcoming late work week system and is
moving more quickly, so amounts should not be as high as our first
system. However, if the late week system leaves us with snow/ice
coverage, this could have a big impact on our surface temps and lead
to more accumulation of whatever falls.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east Sunday night into
Monday, with just a small chance of light snow or sleet lingering in
our eastern counties on Monday. Any additional accumulations during
this time period will be light. Behind this weather system, the big
story will be bitterly cold temperatures. Monday highs will still
be in the upper 20s to middle 30s, which is 15 to 20 degrees below
seasonal normals. By Monday night, lows will be in the upper single
digits to middle teens, and then even a few degrees colder Tuesday
night, which would put us around 25 degrees below normal. Wind
chills around zero will be possible both Monday night and Tuesday
night across some of our northern counties.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

With the passage of a frontal system, cigs/vsbys will slowly
deteriorate from northwest to southeast through the valid period
with IFR cigs possible at KCGI/KPAH by the end of the period.
precipitation will likely begin as rain, then transition to
freezing rain, and eventually to ice pellets/sleet. Northwest winds
10-15 mph will gust up to 15-20 mph behind the frontal passage.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
ILZ077-078-083-086-087-089>091-093-094.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088-092.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
MOZ112-114.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday FOR
KYZ001>008-010-011-013>016-018>020.

WINTER STORM WARNING from Midnight Thursday Night to 9 PM CST
Friday FOR KYZ009-012-017-021-022.

SHORT TERM...PS
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1204 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON TODAY...
SPREADING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND MAY SPREAD RAIN OR SNOW
INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
ON SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
ON SUNDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOON...SOME SHELTERED AREAS IN INTERIOR ME STILL BELOW FREEZING
WITH SOME -SHRA MOVING THRU. AS WITH PLACES WHERE SHRA MOVES THRU
EARLIER...THESE SHOULD BUT UP A FEW DEGREES AS THE RAIN MIXES SOME
WARMER AIR DOWN...SO FZRA LOOKS TO BE BE ISOLATED AND BRIEF. BACK
OFF POPS TO REFLECT MORE SCT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...AS STEADIER
RAIN LOOKS TO BE MORE LKLY TONIGHT.

855 AM...SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGRESSING NWD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY PRECIP ATTM. ONLY PRECIP NEARBY IS LIGHT RA IN CENTRAL
MA/CT. PREV TREND IS FOR ANY RAIN TO MIX DOWN WARMER /ABV FRZING/
TEMPS AND WEAKEN INVERSION...THEREFORE THREAT OF ANY PATCHY FZRA
IS EXTREMELY S OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF FZRA
IN THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE...
SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REMAINS IN FULL SWING THIS MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES PER
LATEST 88D IMAGERY EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
DUE TO A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...NO
REPORTS AS OF 12Z. USED THE BTV TOP/DOWN WEATHER TOOL. WILL NOT BE
ISSUING AN ADVISORY WITH SUCH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR ICE THIS MORNING.

TIDES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SHOULD COME UP
CLOSE TO THE 12 FOOT FLOOD STAGE IN PORTLAND. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
MUCH WIND OR WAVE ACTION...PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WATER LEVELS
IN HAMPTON WILL BE RUNNING HIGH TODAY.

PREV DISC...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTLINE IS BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
PRIOR TO OUR EXPECTED DAYTIME WARM UP TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY AS LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FROPA FINALLY OCCURS TONIGHT...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM A
STRATIFORM TO A SHOWERY TYPE OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COOLING OFF...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH BRINGS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS TO
WHETHER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND OR NOT. CURRENTLY...THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH LEADS US TO THE LONG
RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE E ALONG A STALLED
FRONT LOCATED S OF NEW ENGL. SRN AREAS OF ME/NH WILL BE ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD SO SOME LGT PCPN IS EXPECTED. THE PCPN
SHOULD PRODUCE PSBLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER SRN AREAS AS ANY
MIXED PCPN GRDLY CHANGES TO SNOW AS CAA OCCURS FRI NIGHT. BY SAT
MRNG SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUN ALLOWING ANOTHER NICE DAY.
SUN NIGHT THE SFC/UPR RDG AXIS OVR NEW ENGL MOVES EWD ALLOWING A
MOIST SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A BROAD WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EWD INTO THE REGION BY MON MORNING. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT CONDS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SOME ACCUMS
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET MON MRNG BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX AND
THEN RAIN FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. BY MON NIGHT SYSTEM RAPIDLY
EXITS AND CLEARING EXPECTED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE. TUES AND WED MUCH COLDER
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

ACCEPTED TIMING AND POPS OF SUPERBLEND GUID FOR DAYS 4-7.

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
FRI NIGHT IFR CONDS IN SNW OR MIXED PCPN OVER SRN AREAS WHILE NRN
AND CNTRL AREAS MAILY VFR. ON SAT CONDS BECOME VFR ACROSS ALL
AREAS AND CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES SUN
NIGHT AND MON LOWERING CONDS TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL AREAS.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WITH TIME. WILL ISSUES SCA FOR SEAS...WHICH WILL CARRY ON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ONLY.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NW WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDS SUN.
ON MON AN INCRG E FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

919 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
855 AM...SFC WARM FRONT IS PROGRESSING NWD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ANY PRECIP ATTM. ONLY PRECIP NEARBY IS LIGHT RA IN CENTRAL
MA/CT. PREV TREND IS FOR ANY RAIN TO MIX DOWN WARMER /ABV FRZING/
TEMPS AND WEAKEN INVERSION...THEREFORE THREAT OF ANY PATCHY FZRA
IS EXTREMELY S OF THE MTNS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF FZRA
IN THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE WOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FROPA FINALLY OCCURS TONIGHT...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM A
STRATIFORM TO A SHOWERY TYPE OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COOLING OFF...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH BRINGS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE E ALONG A STALLED
FRONT LOCATED S OF NEW ENGL. SRN AREAS OF ME/NH WILL BE ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD SO SOME LGT PCPN IS EXPECTED. THE PCPN
SHOULD PRODUCE PSBLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER SRN AREAS AS ANY
MIXED PCPN GRDLY CHANGES TO SNOW AS CAA OCCURS FRI NIGHT. BY SAT
MRNG SKIES CLEAR AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRES
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUN ALLOWING ANOTHER NICE DAY.
SUN NIGHT THE SFC/UPR RDG AXIS OVR NEW ENGL MOVES EWD ALLOWING A
MOIST SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS A BROAD WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EWD INTO THE REGION BY MON MORNING. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT CONDS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SOME ACCUMS
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET MON MRNG BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX AND
THEN RAIN FROM S-N DURING THE DAY. BY MON NIGHT SYSTEM RAPIDLY
EXITS AND CLEARING EXPECTED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE. TUES AND WED MUCH COLDER
TEMPS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED.

ACCEPTED TIMING AND POPS OF SUPERBLEND GUID FOR DAYS 4-7.

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WITH TIME. WILL ISSUES SCA FOR SEAS...WHICH WILL CARRY ON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ONLY.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NW WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDS SUN.
ON MON AN INCRG E FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDS.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
KING TIDES PEAK TODAY AROUND MIDDAY...11.5 FT AT 1215 EST AT
PORTLAND...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES...IMPACT SHOULD
BE LIMITED.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

904 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

PREV DISC...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTALINE IS BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
PRIOR TO OUR EXPECTED DAYTIME WARMUP TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY AS LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS TO
WHETHER A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE FRONT AND SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND OR NOT. CURRENTLY...THE NAM IS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE
NORTHERN PROXIMITY OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH LEADS US TO THE LONG
RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

ACCEPTED TIMING AND POPS OF SUPERBLEND GUID FOR DAYS 4-7.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WITH TIME. WILL ISSUES SCA FOR SEAS...WHICH WILL CARRY ON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ONLY.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NW WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDS SUN.
ON MON AN INCRG E FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDS.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

712 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SOUTHERN AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
REMAINS IN FULL SWING THIS MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT ECHOES PER
LATEST 88D IMAGERY EXISTS OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT MAKING IT TO THE GROUND
DUE TO A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

PREV DISC...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTALINE IS BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
PRIOR TO OUR EXPECTED DAYTIME WARMUP TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY AS LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FROPA FINALLY OCCURS TONIGHT...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM A
STRATIFORM TO A SHOWERY TYPE OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COOLING OFF...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH BRINGS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ACCEPTED TIMING AND POPS OF SUPERBLEND GUID FOR DAYS 4-7.

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WITH TIME. WILL ISSUES SCA FOR SEAS...WHICH WILL CARRY ON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ONLY.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NW WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDS SUN.
ON MON AN INCRG E FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

330 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
EACH CONSECUTIVE RUN. HOWEVER...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE NEW JERSEY COASTALINE IS BEGINNING TO GENERATE SOME LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS MAY FREEZE ON CONTACT IF IT ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH
PRIOR TO OUR EXPECTED DAYTIME WARMUP TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS VERY CLOSELY AS LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
FROPA FINALLY OCCURS TONIGHT...CHANGING THE PRECIPITATION FROM A
STRATIFORM TO A SHOWERY TYPE OF WEATHER. TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE COOLING OFF...SO THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH BRINGS TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS TO BELOW FREEZING BY FRIDAY MORNING.

ACCEPTED TIMING AND POPS OF SUPERBLEND GUID FOR DAYS 4-7.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 3 TO 5 FOOT
WAVES WITH TIME. WILL ISSUES SCA FOR SEAS...WHICH WILL CARRY ON
INTO FRIDAY. THIS IS FOR THE OUTER WATERS ONLY.

LONG TERM...
NO FLAGS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. NW WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CONDS SUN.
ON MON AN INCRG E FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1246 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY... SPREADING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY AND MAY SPREAD RAIN OR SNOW INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH COLDER
AIR MOVING IN. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 20S
AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION. DRY AIR CONTINUES
IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS OUR REGION AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING IN OFF THE BRINK AROUND 13Z.

PREV DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP. SKY STARTS OFF INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
AREA... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL. HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON... WARMER AIR WILL BE PUSHING NORTH ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. WILL LIKELY SEE CLOUDS MOVE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A FEW DEGREES BY MORNING. COULD SEE SOME FOG
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOP BY MORNING AS WELL. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY AFTER
SUNRISE... WHICH LIMITS THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER... IF
PRECIPITATION DOES BEGIN EARLIER OR DRIZZLE SETS UP LATE TONIGHT
THEN THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. CONFIDENCE IN
FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME... BUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR LAST MINUTE ADVISORY
COULD BE ISSUED ONCE THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ACCURACY OF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS BETTER KNOWN.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...
THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE QUITE LIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO
MORE OF A HEAVY FOG/DRIZZLE SITUATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
MAY START OUT AS FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOME AREAS
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS.

TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION HANG AROUND. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. A FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH ON FRIDAY... TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO GET COOLER... ESPECIALLY
ALOFT. THIS MAY ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE
ENDING. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS BEING DRIVEN BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY
DECLINES. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THURSDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY 00Z SATURDAY...
LEAVING JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER
AN INITIALIZATION WITH AN ABNORMALLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AND A WEAK HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
LEADS ME TO THINK THAT THE TROUGH MAY REMAIN STALLED OVER OUR AREA
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE FRONT
STALLS... EITHER OFFSHORE OR NEARSHORE... A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BRINGING FURTHER SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP IT ALL SNOW IN
THE INTERIOR... WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
COAST WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS MID DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION. FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... AND MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A CLOUDY DAY WITH SOME SORT OF PRECIPITATION IS
A SAFE BET BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES IN THIS STORM.
NOTABLE THERE ARE HINTS OF A DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE MAIN LOW MOVES FURTHER INLAND
UP THE ST. LAWRENCE. THIS SECONDARY/MESO LOW COULD SERVE TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST.... OR COULD BECOME THE MAIN
LOW CENTER IF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVE FURTHER EAST. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS THIS SHOULD BE A CLEAR CUT SNOW EVENT. AS USUAL THE
COAST IS CONSIDERABLY MORE DICEY WITH THE PRECIP TYPE STILL UP FOR
GRABS. HAVE OPTED FOR A BASIC RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THIS POINT AS IT IS
STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE A CLEAR CALL BUT UNDOUBTEDLY PERIODS OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TOO.

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
FOG/DRIZZLE MOVE IN. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR
OR LIFR CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...
EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER
STORM WILL RETURN CONDITIONS TO IFR FOR MONDAY.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO GET QUIETER OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. BUT A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW GETS STRONGER ON THURSDAY. COULD SEE GUSTS
TO 25 KT BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WATERS THROUGH THE START OF THE PERIOD. GALES MAY BE NEEDED
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

424 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MILD S-SW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT...WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE COAST. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE TONIGHT (DEW PTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60) WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL...WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. LATEST RADAR
COMPOSITE SHOWS A BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND OFF THE LOWER
MD EASTERN SHORE. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PUSHING
EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WILL CARRY CHC POPS
(30-40%) DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO A
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING...WHERE A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH IS
DIGGING INTO THE NCTRL U.S. AND ANOTHER HIGH IN THE WRN ATLANTIC
IS PREVENTING THE COLD FRONT FROM PROGRESSING EWD. ONCE ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS END THIS EVENING...A DRY PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY THEN RIDES ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SW TO NE AND MAY BRING PCPN BACK INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE FA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SAG
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SW FLOW
WILL ALLOW MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...AM EXPECTING STEADIER PCPN TO ARRIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS POPS
GO...HAVE LIKELY POPS (60%) SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG A
FLUVANNA TO HANOVER TO DORCHESTER MD LINE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF VA HWY 58. CONTINUED WAA ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE MIXING WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S. RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW). FOR NW AREAS...TEMPS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOW-MID
60S DEPENDING ON WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP OCCUR. THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA FRI NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA SAT MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVERNIGHT FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE POST-FRONTAL ARCTIC AIR CAN MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH. AM
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING A CONTRAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S NW TO LOW/MID 50S FAR SE.

SATURDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. N-NE SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLDER AIR INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS EITHER HOLDING
STEADY OR ONLY RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THEIR MORNING LOWS.
HIGHS AROUND 40 NW TO THE LOW/MID 50S FAR SE. THE QUESTION THAT
STILL REMAINS IS JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP LINGERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON SATURDAY. ATTM...THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS STILL FAVOR
LIGHT RAIN LINGERING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FARMVILLE-RICHMOND-
SALISBURY LINE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING INTO JUST FAR
SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM/SREF SOLUTIONS NOT
ONLY DRIVE THE SFC COLD FRONT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BUT THEY
FLATTEN THE FRONT INTO A MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION...WHICH
SUPPORTS LESS PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN. CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PRECIP
GETTING HUNG UP NEAR SE COASTAL AREAS AND BEING SLOWER TO EXIT THE
REGION CONSIDERING THE GIVEN POSITION/STRENGTH OF THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE. WILL KEEP BEST PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
FA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LAYING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO A MORE FLAT W-E ORIENTATION SAT NIGHT...THEN PULLING IT BACK
UP THE APPALACHIANS ALMOST LIKE A RETROGRADING LEE TROUGH.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE TN VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD AIR WEDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM AS COLD ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE N/NE. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR IN THE SOUTHEAST
VERSUS THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
PRECIP-TYPE FORECAST. MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIP
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE DIFFERENT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHERE RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING THE PRECIP NWD OVERNIGHT. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A DRY LOOK
TO IT...NOT BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE FA UNTIL
AROUND 12Z SUN. THIS DELAY IS ALSO RESULTING IN A COLDER
TEMPERATURE BIAS OVER NWRN AREAS. THE SREF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE FAST GFS/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER/COLDER NAM. USING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS TO DETERMINE A GENERAL P-TYPE...
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-95 FROM EMPORIA TO NEW KENT COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NECK DURING THIS TIME. FARTHER EAST...ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE PROBABLY
REAMINING FREE OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z SAT. LOW TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING WEST OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO NEW
KENT TO THE INTERIOR LOWER MD EASTER SHORE...AND IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40 SOUTH AND EAST AND SE OF THIS LINE.

SUNDAY...
THE CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WHEN OVERRUNNING
PRECIP CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE COLD NEAR-SURFACE AIR. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR SUNDAY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT COLDER TEMPS THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITHIN THE CAD SETUP...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
AND GFS. THE COLDER TREND MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FROZEN
PRECIP TO HOLD ON LONGER ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND
THEREFORE SUGGESTING A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WX HEADLINES
BEING NECESSARY ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES IN FACT
START OUT COLDER...THEN THERE COULD BE MORE SNOW/SLEET THAN FIRST
THOUGHT ACROSS THE NW AS WELL BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING
RAIN. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPES AND DURATION OF
FROZEN PRECIP...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST JUST
YET. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LUNENBURG TO TRI-CITIES TO NORTHERN NECK TO SALISBURY
LINE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S WEST TO THE LOW
50S ALONG THE SE COAST.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DUE TO THE 12Z MODELS COLDER AND SLOWER WITH ONSET OF THE EVENT
SUNDAY...BUFKIT DATA NOW SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NWRN MOST COUNTYS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE WEDGE WILL
BE LOCKED IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE FZ RAIN FOR LOUISA/
FLUVANNA/WESTERN GOOCHLAND AND WESTERN CAROLINA COUNTY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTW...RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FA WITH STEADY TEMPS
MOST OF THE NIGHT...SLOWLY RISING AFTER 08Z AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PULLS SOME OCEANIC AIR INLAND.

FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE OF FA MON MORNING WITH MODELS
INDICATING A SERIES OF WEAK WAVES MOVING NE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE PROGGED TO CONTINUE THE RAIN CHCS ACROSS THE AREA
MON. MUCH MILDER AS THE FLOW BECOMES SW BUT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER TRICKY TEMP FORECAST. EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN
TEMPS AS RESIDUAL WEDGING LEADS TO TEMPS HOLDING AROUND 50 NORTHERN
MOST COUNTYS...WITH MUCH MILDER AIR (AND MAYBE SOME PARTIAL SUN)
RESULTING IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 60S AND POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IVOF
ALBEMARLE SOUND.

SAID COLD FRONT SLOWS ITS SOUTHERLY MOVEMENT MON NITE AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF S/W RIDES NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN CHCS GOING INTO TUESDAY. ONE
CAVEAT TO THE FORECAST IS THE COLDER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING...CRITICAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORTS SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN MOST COUNTYS...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A RAIN/SNOW MIX
LATE MON NIGHT FROM LKU-SBY. RAIN ELSEWHERE WITH LOWS IN THE
M30S-M40S. FRONT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY
WITH CAA SETTING IN. STILL A CHC FOR RAIN WITH HIGHS FROM 40 NORTH
TO M50S SOUTH.

NEXT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WED AND THURS.
THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN STATES BY MID WEEK WITH
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM STAYING JUST SOUTH OF AKQ FA. THE 12Z
ECMWF PUSHES THE COASTAL SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL TREND THE DAY 6 AND 7 FORECAST AS
DRY AND COLDER. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE M30S-M40S. LOWS 20-30.

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME IFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR KRIC. LOOKING AT
THE RAP AND NAM WOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO LIFT TO MVFR OR VFR
CEILINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE AREA WHICH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SBY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WINDS KEEP UP AROUND 10 KTS SO EVEN WITH VERY MOIST AIR BELIEVE IT
WILL BE MAINLY STRATUS THAT FORMS. BROUGHT ALL SITES BACK DOWN TO
IFR CEILINGS BUT HELD MOST VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. STILL IN THE
HUMID AIR MASS ON FRIDAY BUT WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD GET
CLOUDS BACK TO VFR RANGE BY LATE MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF RAIN AND WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT SOME CLEARING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY ON SUNDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND WITH A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR MIXED
PRECIP AT KRIC SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED N OF THE AREA TODAY WITH A S FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS PROGGED TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER
WNA SUGGESTS SEAS OUT NEAR 20 NM FLURT WITH 5 FT FRI. GIVEN WNA
SEEMS TO RUN HIGH IN A S FLOW...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT
OUT A MARGINAL SCA FOR SEAS OUT NEAR 20 NM SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED
IN SHORT TERM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DESPITE THIS BEING A LATE 3RD / 4TH
PERIOD EVENT...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST SCA HEADLINES FOR THE
CHES BAY / LOWER JAMES RIVER / COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. WENT WITH A 00Z STARTING TIME FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AS THE
FLOW AROUND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE INCREASES THE GRADIENT ACROSS NC.
SEAS 4-5 FT ALL AREAS BY SAT...THEN 5-6 FT THEREAFTER. HELD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF THE RIVERS AS THAT SEEMS TO BE A 4TH
PERIOD HEADLINE.

SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS AS A PERSISTANT NE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIMING OF THE EVENT...PREDICTED TIDES AND
LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BLO ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY (12/6)...
RIC 81 IN 1998
ORF 79 IN 1998
SBY 77 IN 1998
ECG 80 IN 1998

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ638-
654-656-658.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...MPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPR
CLIMATE...AKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

409 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL EVENTUALLY START TO SAG
SOUTHWARD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SW FLOW
WILL ALLOW MILD WX TO CONTINUE AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...AN EXPECTING STEADIER PCPN TO
ARRIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR
AS POPS GO...HAVE LIKELY POPS (60%) SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG A
FLUVANNA TO HANOVER TO DORCHESTER MD LINE BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF VA HWY 58. CONTINUED WAA ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AND FAVORABLE MIXING WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRI...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN AREAS WHERE TEMPS COULD REACH
THE MID-UPPER 70S. FOR NW AREAS...TEMPS MAY ONLY BE IN THE LOW-
MID 60S DEPENDING ON WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP OCCUR. THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA FRI NIGHT AND MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA SAT MORNING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STEADY OVERNIGHT FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE POST-FRONTAL ARCTIC AIR CAN MOVE INTO
THE REGION AND WHEN WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH. AM
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING A CONTRAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S NW TO LOW/MID 50S FAR SE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LAYING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO A MORE FLAT W-E ORIENTATION SAT NIGHT...THEN PULLING IT BACK
UP THE APPALACHIANS ALMOST LIKE A RETROGRADING LEE TROUGH.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING UP THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE TN VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD AIR WEDGE IS
BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM AS COLD ARCTIC AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
FROM THE N/NE. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER AIR IN THE SOUTHEAST
VERSUS THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
PRECIP-TYPE FORECAST. MODEL DISCREPANCIES REGARDING PRECIP
PLACEMENT AND TIMING ARE DIFFERENT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHERE RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR FREEZING
RAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING THE PRECIP NWD OVERNIGHT. THE NAM HAS MORE OF A DRY LOOK
TO IT...NOT BRINGING PRECIP BACK INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE FA UNTIL
AROUND 12Z SUN. THIS DELAY IS ALSO RESULTING IN A COLDER
TEMPERATURE BIAS OVER NWRN AREAS. THE SREF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE
BTWN THE FAST GFS/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER/COLDER NAM. USING THICKNESS
HEIGHTS AND WET BULB ZERO TEMPS TO DETERMINE A GENERAL P-TYPE...
HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INTO NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-95 FROM EMPORIA TO NEW KENT COUNTY INTO THE
NORTHERN NECK DURING THIS TIME. FARTHER EAST...ALL RAIN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE PROBABLY
REAMINING FREE OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER 12Z SAT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW FREEZING NE OF A LINE FROM EMPORIA TO NEW KENT TO THE
INTERIOR LOWER MD EASTER SHORE...AND IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 SOUTH
AND SE OF THIS LINE.

THE CHALLENGING FORECAST CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WHEN OVERRUNNING
PRECIP CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE COLD NEAR-SURFACE AIR. MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR SUNDAY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT COLDER TEMPS THAN WHAT HAS
BEEN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED WITHIN THE CAD SETUP...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
AND GFS. THE COLDER TREND MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FROZEN
PRECIP TO HOLD ON LONGER ALONG/WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AND
THEREFORE SUGGESTING A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WX HEADLINES
ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES IN FACT START OUT
COLDER...THAN THERE COULD BE MORE SNOW/SLEET THAN FIRST THOUGHT
ACROSS THE NW AS WELL BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH P-TYPES AND DURATION OF FROZEN
PRECIP...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST JUST YET.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF FROZEN
PRECIP ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LUNENBURG TO TRI-CITIES TO NORTHERN NECK TO SALISBURY
LINE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 30S WEST TO THE LOW
50S ALONG THE SE COAST.

SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL AREAS AS A PERSISTANT NE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS AOA 5 FT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...BMD/JDM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...LKB/JAB
MARINE...MPR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1242 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW UP FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...

SIGNIFICANT LK EFFECT AND BLOWING SNOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
KEWEENAW. VIS SATELLITE SHOWS TYPICAL ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE TIP OF BAYFIELD PENINSULA STREAMING INTO THE
VCNTY OF HOUGHTON AND HANCOCK. THINK THIS SNOW BAND RECEIVED
INITIAL BOOST FROM FORCING MOVING ACROSS BRINGING LGT SNOW TO
REST OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. OVERWATER INSTABILITY AND DEPTH OF
LAKE CONVECTIVE LAYER INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SO THE FAVORABLE
LAKE EFFECT SETUP WILL ONLY BECOME MORE SO THROUGH THE AFTN. EXPECT
THE HEAVY LK EFFECT SNOW TO PERSIST BEFORE SHIFTING/RE-ORIENTING
LATER THIS AFTN INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS SECONDARY TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH VEERS WINDS TO MORE NW...LIMITING THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE
AREA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODEL OUTPUT FOR REST OF
DAY AND WINDS UPSTREAM...ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY AS THAT IS WHERE THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY.

TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 10 INCHES IF THE BAND STAYS PUT...BUT
THAT IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE TO SAY IF THAT WILL OCCUR. SNOW RATES
WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL BE OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR. SNOW WILL
BE HARD TO MEASURE DUE TO STRONG WINDS BUT THAT ALSO RESULTS IN VERY
POOR VSBY AS SEEN ON WEB CAMS THIS MORNING AND CMX BEING LESS THAN
1/4SM AT TIMES.

WARNING WILL GO THROUGH 03Z WHEN SHIFTING WINDS SHOULD RE-ORIENT THE
HEAVIER SNOW AREAS. VERY LIKELY THIS MAY OCCUR EARLIER THAN 03Z BUT
WANTED TO GIVE EXTRA WIGGLE ROOM AT THE END OF THE WARNING. BEYOND
03Z THE LK EFFECT ADVY KICKS BACK IN. NO CHANGES TO KEWEENAW COUNTY
ADVY AS HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...BOOSTED POPS FOR NEXT FEW HOURS AWAY FM
KEWEENAW AS LGT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS WITH SHALLOW DEPTH
DISTURBANCE. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT SNOW TO TAPER OFF/END
LEAVING JUST PERSISTENT FALLING TEMPS AND LOWERING WIND
CHILLS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

CONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW WHICH WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING ARE ONLY SHOWING A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA
WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO NEARLY 30MPH.
ALSO A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ARE BEING DISPLAYED ACROSS THE CWA
WITH IWD AROUND 19F WILE NEWBERRY IS AROUND 36F. THE COOL DOWN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT....LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT WHILE A COLD
FRONT STRETCHES SOUTH AND WESTWARD FROM NORTH CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHEAST MN AS OF 06Z. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD...PUSHING INTO ONTARIO BY DAY BREAK TODAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW
ANY LIQUID REMAINING ON THE ROADWAYS TO REFREEZE ALLOWING TRAVEL TO
CONTINUE TO BE SLIPPERY ONCE AGAIN...THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A SPS
TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THIS POTENTIAL HAZARD. THE POSITIVE SIDE OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THAT THE MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE AREA...LEAVING TEMPERATURES ALOFT COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OVERHEAD. FOR THE
DETAILS...WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY STRONG OUT OF THE WEST AS THE
SURFACE CONTINUES LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
OF 12Z/05 TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY 18Z/05...WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY.

WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF
LAKES SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME
A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERLY WIND FAVORED SNOW BELTS OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA. AT 850MB THE COLDER TEMPERATURES REALLY START TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY 12Z/05 WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. UNDER -10C TO -14C 850MB TEMPS. THIS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPMENT AS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING AROUND 4C TO 5C. TEMPERATURE INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 12Z ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 7KFT WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT
BEGINNING TO BE COLLOCATED IN THE FAVORED DGZ...MAINLY OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH IN
AT 850MB BY EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND 18Z WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM -14C OVER THE EAST TO -17 OVER THE WEST AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS LIFT TO AROUND 8KFT. THIS HELPS TO PLACE A GREATER DEAL OF
MOISTURE AN FORCING IN THE DGZ...ALLOWING FOR BETTER SNOW GROWTH
OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. REALLY NOT MANY CHANGES OCCUR FROM
18Z/05 THROUGH 06Z/06...EXCEPT FOR EVEN COLDER AIR PRESSES INTO THE
UPPER PENINSULA AT 850MB...WITH TEMPERATURES AT THAT LEVEL DROPPING
TO -20C OVER THE WESTERN U.P. SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR BUILDS IN ALOFT BY
06Z WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.

AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...THE MAIN ISSUE DURING THIS ENTIRE
TIME FRAME WILL BE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE THICK CLOUD BANK THAT HAS LINGERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL TRY TO FINALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS CLEARING ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLDER 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH THE INLAND WEST
AREAS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. THESE BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE WIND CHILL READINGS FALL TO 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO. THIS
WOULD BE MARGINAL FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...BUT THIS MAY BE NEEDED
BY THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

ALSO...AWAY FROM THE KEWEENAW DECIDED TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR
NORTHWESTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA ALONG WITH CAA ALLOWING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO
THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE OF THE LAKE. RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR 38KT WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF THE LAKE.
ALREADY THIS MORNING THERE WERE A COUPLE OF OBS COMING IN WITH GUSTS
TO 32KTS...WITH THESE GUSTS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE TEMPS/LES MAINLY IN THE
W-NW SN BELTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LARGER SCALE SN EVENT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL TEMPS WL RUN WELL BLO NORMAL MOST OF THE
LONGER TERM WITH ARCTIC AIRMASSES DOMINATING.

FRI INTO SAT...AS THE LO TO THE NE DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO QUEBEC AND
ARCTIC HI PRES SLIDES FM WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THE STEADY
FLOW OF VERY COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO GRDLY VEER TOWARD THE WNW AND
DIMINISH WITH TIME AS H85 TEMPS FALL SLOWLY TO ARND -17C OVER THE E
AND -21C OVER THE W BY 12Z SAT. THIS TYPICAL WINTER WX REGIME WL
FAVOR NEARLY CONTINUOUS LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. A SHRTWV
TRACKING EWD THRU SRN ONTARIO/NRN LK SUP ON FRI NGT AND ACCOMPANYING
DEEPER MSTR MAY RESULT IN SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE LES. ALTHOUGH THE
WINDS/BLSN WL BE DIMINISHING GRDLY...EXPECT LES/WINTER WX ADVYS TO
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FAVORED LES BELTS WITH FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF
THE LLVL OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ. WENT HIER THAN MODEL CONSENSUS POPS
FOR LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS...USING CLIMATOLOGY GRIDS TO
EVALUATE THE POPS. AS THE LLVL WINDS DIMINISH...LAND BREEZE CNVGC
MAY PLAY A MORE IMPORTANT ROLE IN ENHANCING THE LES BANDS IN SOME
PLACES...WITH AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVIER SN FALL APRCHG WARNING
CRITERIA. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST NEAR LK SUP E OF GRAND
MARAIS ON FRI NGT. SN/WATER RATIOS WL ALSO LIKELY BE MORE FVRBL FOR
LARGER FLAKES AS THE FLAKE FRACTURING DIMINISHES WITH THE WEAKENING
WINDS. AWAY FM THE FAVORED SN BELTS...THE WX DURING THIS TIME WL BE
VERY COLD BUT DRY. SUB ZERO MIN TEMPS WITH DAYTIME TEMPS STRUGGLING
TO RISE ABV 10F WL THE RULE OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF WITHIN THE LESS
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR.

SAT NGT/SUN...THE SLOW EWD PUSH OF THE ARCTIC HI CENTER FM THE NRN
PLAINS THRU THE GREAT LKS/SLOWLY BACKING WINDS TO WSW ON SUN WL
CAUSE THE LES TO DIMINISH. THESE SHSN WL LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE
KEWEENAW...AND EXTNENDED LES ADVY FOR THAT AREA UNTIL 12Z SUN.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY WAD CLDS SPILL INTO THE UPR LKS ON SUN TO
THE E OF A DEEPENING TROF IN THE PLAINS...TEMPS AT SOME PLACES OVER
THE INTERIOR ON EARLY SUN MRNG MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS BLO ZERO WITH
LGT WINDS UNDER THE ARRIVING SFC HI CENTER.

EXTENDED...NEXT LARGER SCALE PCPN EPISODE IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE ON SUN
NGT INTO EARLY MON. SOME OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS WERE SHOWING A
PHASING OF THE ARCTIC/POLAR BRANCHES WITH A DEEPER SFC LO TRACKING
THRU THE WCENTRAL GREAT LKS. IF THIS SCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY...A
WDSPRD ADVY SN WL BE PSBL OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. BUT THE MORE RECENT
LONGER TERM GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD LESS PHASING/A
WEAKER SFC LO THAT WOULD CAUSE JUST A FEW INCHES...MAINLY OVER THE E
CLOSER TO LO TRACK THRU LOWER MI. SINCE THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
WEAKER LO...GUIDANCE IS ALSO INDICATING THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING INTO
THE UPR LKS FOR LATER MON INTO TUE MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -25C INSTEAD OF -28C OR EVEN
-30C. STILL...LES WOULD BE A GOOD BET IN THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS. A
NUMBER OF THE LONGER TERM MODELS INDICATE A CLIPPER LO PRES MIGHT
TRACK THRU THE UPR LKS ON TUE AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE
WDSPRD -SN. THE CHILLY NW FLOW BTWN THE DEPARTING CLIPPER LO IN
ONTARIO AND HI PRES SINKING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WL THEN BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LES IN THE FAVORED SN BELTS. FINALLY...SOME OF THE
EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS HINTING THE UPR FLOW WL TREND MORE ZONAL LATER
NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MODERATION TO THE ARCTIC CHILL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

AT CMX...STRONG BAND OF LK EFFECT SNOW WILL REMAIN IN THE VCNTY INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT BLO AIRPORT MINS WITHIN THE SNOW BAND AS
VSBY LOWERS TO LESS THAN 1/4SM IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS
WINDS GUST TO OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING...BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

AT IWD AND SAW...WEST WINDS WILL NOT FAVOR MUCH LK EFFECT SNOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR CLOUDS OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY
SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AT SAW BUT SHOULD PERSIST AT IWD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AND REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KTS INTO FRIDAY.

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

EXPECT W GALES AS HI AS 40-45 KTS TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT ON THE
SW FLANK OF LO PRES MOVING NE THRU ONTARIO. FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLS OUT OVER THE LAKE. THERE MAY
BE POCKETS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. THE W GALES WILL THEN
SLOWLY DIMINISH W-E LATE TONIGHT/FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY
SLACKENS WITH THE SLOW APPROACH OF HI PRES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE S-SW ON SUN AND DIMINISH UNDER 15 KTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE HI PRES TO THE E. A LO PRES SYSTEM MOVING NE THRU
LOWER MI ON SU NIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING HI. NW GALES AND MORE
FREEZING SPRAY WILL THEN DEVELOP ON MON AS ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
INVADES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ246>248-250-251.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ241>245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1037 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW UP FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

CONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW WHICH WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE WEST
AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. CMX AND IWD WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE
STRONGER GUSTS...APPROACHING 40KTS AT TIMES. VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT
BE AN ISSUE FOR IWD OR SAW THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER AT OR AROUND MVFR TO IFR AT IWD AND CMX AS LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN. KSAW WILL SEE CEILINGS IMPROVE THROUGH THE
DAY...LIKELY BECOMING VFR BY MID AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS VISIBILITY
GOES...THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE AT CMX AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND LINGERS INTO THE
NIGHT TIME. KEPT THE GOING VISIBILITY OF 1SM AT CMX AS BLSN MAY BE
INTRODUCED WITH ANY FRESH SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR...COULD SEE VISIBILITY
FALLING LOWER THAN 1SM AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
BANDS...BUT ITS A BIT EARLY TO PIN POINT THE BEST TIME FOR THIS TO
OCCUR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MIZ003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ003.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ246>248-250-251.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY FOR LSZ241>245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

647 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

CONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW WHICH WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ246>248-250-251.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ241>245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

505 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

CONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KEWEENAW WHICH WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW SOME
LINGERING DRIZZLE THROUGH 08Z/05 KEEPING VSBY DOWN AT KSAW BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WESTERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO NEARLY
30 KNOTS AT TIMES. IWD AND CMX MAY ALSO HAVE SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
BEFORE THE STRONGER...COLDER WINDS PUSH IN DROPPING CEILINGS DOWN AND
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACT TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY AT CMX AND IWD IF BLSN BECOMES AN ISSUE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ264.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ246>248-250-251.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ241>245.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1247 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

20Z SFC CHART INDICATES ELONGATED SFC TROUGH FROM WCNTRL WI INTO
NORTHEAST IA WITH MSLP OF 998MB. WV AND RUC FCST SHOWS SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TOWARD
NORTHWEST WI WHILE DEEPENING OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION IN FULL
SWING AHEAD OF MAINLY 850MB LOW LIFTING INTO NW WISCONSIN. RUC13 AND
NAM12 HAVE DONE NICE JOB WITH THE WARM LAYER AT H9-H85 TODAY AND
BOTH SHOW H85 TEMPS OVER 2C REACHING NORTH OF ALL CWA BY 00Z.
SOUNDINGS OVER US CURRENTLY WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY FZRA BUT LINGERING
COLD POCKET NEAR SFC /TEMPS STILL IN MID-UPR 20S/ IS ALLOWING SLEET
TO HANG ON LONGER. CURRENTLY SNOW IS STILL FALLING OVER KEWEENAW
PENINSULA BUT IS EVEN STARTING TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN. PLAN FOR EVENING IS THAT
MIXED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW WILL CHANGE TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET WHILE MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN JUST RAIN OCCURS FOR
CNTRL CWA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LK MICHIGAN SHORE. IF HEAVIER
PRECIP WAS EXPECTED OVR CNTRL THIS EVENING...ICING COULD BE BIGGER
ISSUE. RIGHT NOW...APPEARS THAT HEAVIER PRECIP IS GOING TO OCCUR IN
STRIPE FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD WESTERN LK SUPERIOR IN AREAS
OF STRONGEST PVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.
GIVEN TREND TO MORE FZRA THOUGH...INCREASED ICE ACCUMS OVER INTERIOR
WEST AND CNTRL TO 0.10-0.20 INCHES THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS MID-LEVEL DRYING IN THE H7-H6 LAYER ARRIVES 03Z-06Z OVER THE
SOUTH AND AFTER 06Z IN THE NORTH...EXPECT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO
TAPER OFF TO MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. ACTUALLY HEADLINES
SO FAR ARE WORKING OUT PRETTY WELL. DID HAVE TO GO WITH MORE SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN AS WARM AIR WORKED IN QUICKER...BUT OVERALL IDEA
OF WINTRY MIX IS COVERED WITH GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVY. TIMING FOR
ENDING OF ADVY SEEMS GOOD AS WELL. ONLY POSSIBLE TROUBLE SPOTS WILL
IN THE INTERIOR CNTRL AND EAST THIS EVENING DUE TO ICING IF HEAVIER
PRECIP ENDS UP BLOSSOMING TO THE EAST OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE. SOME
SHORT TERM HIGHER-RES MODELS INDICATE EXPANSION OF PRECIP OVER
SCNTRL THIS EVENING...BUT RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM NOT REALLY SHOWING
THIS. IF SFC TEMPS STAY BLO FREEZING THAT AREA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE ADVY.

NOW ONTO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MAIN ISSUE SEEMS TO BE LK EFFECT
AND BLOWING SNOW ON THE KEWEENAW. WEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 40 MPH AT
TIMES LEADING TO THE BLSN/POOR VISIBILITY...PROBABLY 1/4-1/2SM AT
TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW. LARGER SCALE FORCING BECOMES
NEGATIVE BUT THERE IS A LOT OF LINGERING MOISTURE BLO H8 WITH
COOLING AT INVERSION TOP TO -16C OR SO BY MIDDAY. GIVEN LK SUPERIOR
WATER TEMPS AROUND 3-4C THIS GIVES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST MODERATE LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WSW WINDS
OVER LAND WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND OVER LK SUPERIOR INDICATES
STRONGER CONVERGENCE AREA SETS UP ACROSS KEWEENAW. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE HELD DOWN SOME BY LOWER SLR/S AS THERE IS A LOT OF FRACTURING OF
SNOWFLAKES DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. EXPECT ADVY LEVEL SNOWS OF 3-5"
OR 4-7" WITH A LOT OF WIND/BLSN. WILL ISSUE A SEPARATE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVY FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...GOING INTO PLACE RIGHT
WHEN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR THE MESSY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN DIMINISHES.

AND FINALLY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AWAY FM THE
KEWEENAW...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FM THE WEST.
ALREADY SEEING THIS ARCTIC AIR POURING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN.
EXPECT SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD WORKS
EAST...WITH READINGS LIKELY INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS BY EVENING
OVER THE FAR WEST CWA. THIS COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FREEZE ANY
LINGERING SLUSH AND WATER IS ON THE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN TOUGHER TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

THE EASY PART OF THIS FCST PERIOD WILL BE THE LACK OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ONLY SNOW...WITH SFC TEMPS MAXING OUT IN THE
LOW TO MID 20F DEGREE RANGE /MONDAY/ AND 850MB TEMPS TOPPING OUT
AROUND -15C EAST EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AROUND -12 TO -15C.

WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LES OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER MI THURSDAY
NIGHT. AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT
LES ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER 6-12HRS IF THE 3-5IN OF SNOW FALL OVER
KEWEENAW...N HOUGHTON...AND FAR W ONTONAGON COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LES PARAMETER OFF THE GFS REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 2 THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DISCUSS THE NEED...AS THE WINDS
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25KTS
OVERNIGHT. THE WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WINDS SLOWLY MOVING MORE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...LES WILL LINGER MAINLY ACROSS
THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.

KEPT MENTION OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE LOWEST VALUES FLIRT WITH -25C OVER THE SW
CORNER OF THE CWA.

STRONG SFC HIGH OVER SW CANADA FRIDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ENDED UP SPLITTING UP SOME
OF THE MORE EXTENDED POPS AS A RESULT...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL SLIDE BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY
POPS OVER THE E HALF...AS THE HIGH EXITS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE NEARS FROM THE LOWER AND CENTRAL MS VALLEY.
THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO CROSS LAKE HURON AROUND 12Z MONDAY...DEEPENING
AS IT MOVES TO S QUEBEC MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF W TO NW WINDS...WITH GALES AGAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...AND EXIT NORTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY WHILE
FURTHER DEEPENING THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH OUR INITIAL E TO NE WINDS
/GALES TO 35KTS OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR/ BECOMING OUT OF THE S AND SW
FOR ALL BUT FAR W LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT...BEFORE W GALES OF 35 TO
40 KNOTS START UP THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL EXIT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY TO DEEPEN AND SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS
LAKE HURON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. W TO NW GALES TO 35KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR MIZ002-009>011-084.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004-
005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ246>248-250-251.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241>245.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

1203 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EST THU DEC 5 2013

COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES WITH COLD AIR COMING IN. SNOW
CONTINUE AT IWD AND CMX THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. USED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR CIGS/VIS AND MORE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR IWD AND CMX. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES AS COLD AIR MOVES IN AND THEN
SHOULD STAY MVFR AT IWD AND SAW THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP CMX DOWN TO LIFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR MIZ002-009>011-084.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ001-003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ004-
005.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ265>267.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LSZ263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ246>248-250-251.

GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ241>245.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

105 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

We have inserted a slight chance for a wintry mix overnight from
southwestern Missouri up towards Lake of the Ozarks and Rolla. The
last few runs of the NAM and RAP have hinted at QPF output late
tonight. They appear to be hitting on forcing along the 850 mb
front. There may also be aid from continued upslope flow along the
Ozark Plateau. Point soundings indicate that parcels lifted from
850 mb would be briefly buoyant. As for precipitation types...we
went with a mixture of light freezing rain and sleet. Freezing
drizzle will also be possible as any precipitation will likely
occur right on the edge of appreciable cloud ice. A very thin
glaze of ice will be possible along with a dusting of sleet if
this precipitation materializes. This may result in localized slick
spots on area roadways during the predawn hours.

.SHORT TERM...(Through This Evening)
Issued at 138 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

A cold front was in the process of making its way east across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures ahead of the front were in the
lower 60s. Behind the front, temperatures had fallen to around 40
degrees. The cold air will filter into the region through this
evening, bringing an abrupt end to the mild weather the region has
seen over the past few days.

As the front pushes east, the rapid drop in temperatures was
allowing for the development of advection fog. Visibilities along
and just behind the front were dropping to less than a mile. The
thickest fog will remain closely associated with the front, with
visibilities improving behind the front. Some light fog and low
clouds will remain over the region after the front moves through
with winds turning to the northwest and temperatures falling
through the evening and overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 138 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Cold air will continue to build into the area during the overnight
hours tonight, with temperatures dropping below freezing in most
locations during the predawn hours. By 12z tomorrow morning, expect
all but the far southeastern corner of the CWA to be below freezing,
with areas along and north of I-44 well into the mid to low 20s.

Precipitation should begin to develop during the morning hours on
Thursday, with a steady increase in both coverage and intensity from
mid morning through mid afternoon as the upper level jet intensifies
over the Midwest, with the Ozarks well within its right entrance
region. Onset of precip appears to be a little slower, with the
heaviest activity afternoon tomorrow. With some dry air to be
overcome, especially the further north and west that one goes in
the CWA, it may take a bit for precip to reach the ground,
especially along the I-44 corridor. Once it does however, given
cold ground temps, would expect to see rapid increases on area
roadways.

Initial precipitation type remains most likely to be a mix of snow,
sleet, and perhaps a little freezing rain along the I-44 corridor,
with a mix of sleet, rain, and freezing rain across far south
central Missouri, before enough cold air builds in for a change over
the freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and snow, and eventually
all snow by tomorrow evening. Guidance continues to trend colder
aloft, and thus believe the vast majority of freezing rain
accumulations will remain south of the CWA. Will continue to
advertise a glaze to tenth of an inch of freezing rain along and
southeast of an Anderson to Marshfield to Salem line. Along with
the ice accumulations, snow/sleet accumulations should be fairly
minor during the daytime hours tomorrow, with a quarter inch to one
inch of combined snow and sleet by late afternoon. Again, however,
it`s important to note that with cold temps in place before the
onset of precipitation, immediate accumulations and impacts are
expected tomorrow during the daytime hours.

By tomorrow evening, enough cold air should be in place to change
precipitation over to all snow for all but the extreme southeastern
portion of the forecast area. That area should finally change over
to all snow between midnight and 3 AM. After a relative lull in
activity during the evening hours, another wave of snow should
overspread the area as the upper jet increases in intensity and
another shortwave arrives from the Southern Plains. Will need to
watch the Thursday night/Friday morning snow carefully for the
potential for higher accumulations that what is currently forecast,
given the potential for much higher than usual snow to liquid ratios
due to the very cold temperatures. For this forecast, generally
used a 13:1-17:1 ratio, depending in temperature. In addition to
SLR issues, cross sections indicate the potential for some lower
static stability and possible development of slantwise convection,
especially if an axis of mid level frontogenesis develops far enough
north to tap into the CSI. Snow should end during the day Friday as
the mid level wave swings through.

Once all is said and done Friday evening, storm total snow
accumulations should range from 1-3 inches north of I-44, 2-5 along
the greater I-44 corridor, and 4-6 inches across southern and south
central Missouri. A glaze to tenth of an inch of freezing rain will
also be possible Thursday across south central Missouri.

With heavier accumulations and more substantial mixed precipitation
across southern/south central Missouri, will go ahead and upgrade
the Winter Storm Watch area to a Winter Storm Warning. North of the
Warning, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued as far north as
roughly U.S. 54. The main impact for this event will likely be to
roadways/travel, especially considering what should be almost
immediate accumulations once precipitation begins on Thursday.

Friday night and Saturday look to be dry across the region, as very
cold and dry air builds into the area. Temperatures Friday night
will fall into the single digits, especially with fresh snow cover
in place. Highs Saturday will only warm into the low to perhaps mid
20s.

Another wave of precipitation will overspread the area Saturday
night into Sunday, most likely in the form of snow. A few
additional inches of snowfall will be possible with this system. The
majority of this activity looks to end by Monday morning.

After relative "warmth" in the upper 20s on Sunday, the coldest air
in nearly two and a half years will overspread the area for Monday
and Tuesday. For now, highs both days look to be in low 20s, with
low temperatures in the single digits, approaching zero. It is
worth noting that some guidance does bring in even colder readings,
with the possibility of later forecasts taking low temperatures
below zero Monday and Tuesday mornings in some spots. Much will
depend on snow cover both here and to our north, so this will
certainly be something to keep an eye on over the next few days.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

Ceilings will continue to hover between high-end IFR and low-end
MVFR for the early overnight period. Flight conditions will then
briefly improve as we approach sunrise. A storm system will then
spread a wintry mix of precipitation into southern Missouri on
Thursday. It appears that a mixture of sleet and snow will change
to all snow at Springfield with precipitation falling from late
morning through the afternoon. Joplin will be right on the
northern edge of the precipitation and will also see a sleet and
snow mixture quickly changing to all snow. Branson will see mixed
precipitation longer before finally changing to all snow from mid
to late afternoon. IFR conditions can be expected with steadier
snow, with LIFR possible at Branson where snow may be moderate to
heavy at times. The snow will then end by early evening with
ceilings remaining in the MVFR to high-end IFR range.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Friday
FOR MOZ095>098-101>106.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
Friday FOR MOZ057-058-069>071-077>083-088>094.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
Friday FOR KSZ097-101.

UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1132 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.EQUIPMENT...
OUR RADAR FAILED AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR AND WILL NOT COME BACK ON-
LINE. WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CONTACTING TECHS.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE TOO LOW COMPARED
TO REALITY. WE SHOULD BE BACK ON-TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKY
COVER WAS ALSO INCREASED TO 100% WHERE SKIES ARE CLOUDY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON
KS TO MANKATO TO HEBRON. IT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST
AREA BY 2 AM.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND H85 TEMPS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE STRUGGLED IN THE ARCTIC AIR AND READINGS AVERAGE IN
THE TEENS/20S ATTM. WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A DEPARTING SFC LOW ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND A 1035MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING SOUTHEAST FM MONTANA. THE
COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPS HAVE RESULTED IN
WINDS CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES CONTINUE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE
HEAD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN IN A SUBSIDENT/CLEARING AREA.

THIS EVENING...A 150KT H25 JET EMERGES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND CROSSES THRU NEBRASKA AND A MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLD AIR IS REINFORCED WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH
MOVING THRU THIS EVENING AND A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
PROGGED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. IN FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTOGENESIS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BANDED
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING. MODELS ARE NOT
IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL SET UP WITH THE GFS
THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE BAND...THE 12Z NAM WAS THE FARTHEST
SOUTH WITH THE BAND BUT HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE 18Z RUN.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP WERE MORE SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT 18Z
NAM...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE TRENDED FARTHER
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE POSITION. THIS BEING
SAID...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS IS STILL THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION
FOR SNOWFALL THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND WHERE BAND
SETS UP...SOME HALF INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR SO ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FARTHER NORTH OF THE BAND...FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FRIGID AND CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCOUR
BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE WENT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TONIGHT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE STEADY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO ROUGHLY 8 TO 18 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR CWA. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NW ZONES...AND THE 18 BELOW VALUES REMAIN SHY OF WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE AND CONTINUE TO MENTION COLD
WIND CHILLS IN THE HWO.

THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON THURSDAY...WITH FRIGID
-18C AIR SETTLING IN AT H85. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
NOSE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE PLAINS AND DRY AND VERY COLD WEATHER IS
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THE COLD AIRMASS AND
WILL GIVE TEMPS ABOUT A 10 DEGREE RISE FROM MORNING LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS WILL BE CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. WITH THE TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...THE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO
THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WINDS TURN TO
THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS WARM ADVECTION
OF MOIST AIR OVER THE COLD SURFACE. EXPECT SNOW TO START ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE
SOME VARIABLE QPF AMOUNTS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES THERE WILL MOST
LIKELY BE LIGHT FLUFFY SNOWFALL. AN ADVANTAGE IS THAT CURRENTLY
THERE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH THE SYSTEM. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE IS THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE MAIN WAVE IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IS FURTHER NORTH AND NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL BECOME SCT...REVEALING
SCT-BKN CIRRUS AT 25K FT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE GUSTING UP TO 32
KTS WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

THU: VFR WITH SCT-BKN 25K FT CIRRUS IN THE MORNING. A FEW STRATOCU
COULD DEVELOP AROUND 3K FT AFTER 17Z. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

THU EVE: VFR WITH SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT BECOMING A
CIG BY MIDNIGHT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

EQUIPMENT...HALBLAUB
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1107 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL REINVIGORATE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MTNS
LATE EVE/EARLY MORN AND SPREAD EASTWARD. HAVE GONE MUCH MORE
BULLISH FOR SNOW IMPACTS AT SAF/AEG/ABQ/LVS AND TCC. THE MAIN
PERIOD OF IMPACT ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10Z TO
16Z ALTHOUGH SAF SHOULD LAST A BIT LONGER BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. LVS SHOULD LAST A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS PREDICTED. COULD VERY WELL SEE LIFR THERE. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR AT SAF/ABQ BUT NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT AWW SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1...POSSIBLY 2 INCHES AT
ABQ. WILL BE MONITORING THAT VERY CLOSELY. WIND NOT NEARLY AS MUCH
OF A FACTOR TODAY WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING SPEEDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS REST OF TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...907 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013...
...ESTANCIA VALLEY AND EAST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES IN THE CROSSHAIRS
FOR HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY...

HAVE MADE SOME DETAILED CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO NARROW IN
ON EXPECTED AREA OF MOST SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX IMPACTS THRU THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHALLENGE HAS BEEN WHERE A MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW
SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NM THEN EXPANDS INTO A BROADER AREA OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST 00Z NAM GUIDANCE AND RUC13 SHOW
THE BAND NOW FARTHER NORTH MORE LIKE SEVERAL ITERATIONS OF THE GFS/
CANADIAN AND ECMWF. GIVEN THIS NEW INFO AND A FOCUSED ATTEMPT AT QPF
WITH VERY SNOW RATIOS WE WILL EXPAND THE WARNING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF
THE EAST CENTRAL AND NE PLAINS...AS WELL AS ADD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE ADVISORY. COULD BE VERY INTERESTING FOR THE ESTANCIA
VALLEY AND EAST MTN COMMUNITIES WHERE THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH
LAYER IS SPOT ON WITH THE BEST LIFT AND QPF...AND WITH HIGH SNOW
RATIOS WE MAY SEE SNOW RATES NEAR 1 OR EVEN 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A
FEW HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS OF NORTHWEST NM MAY BE DONE WITH
THIS EVENT HOWEVER WILL GIVE THE MID SHIFT ANOTHER SHOT TO LOOK AT
IT BEFORE DROPPING ANY HIGHLIGHTS.

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...249 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH
AND WEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SWEEPING TOWARD NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FESTOONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER...WITH SOUTHBOUND INCURSIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. SNOW STARTED SO FAR AT FARMINGTON AND
GALLUP...WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW ON TAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE PEGGED WELL ABOVE
WARNING CRITERIA NEAR RUIDOSO...CLINES CORNERS...AND LAS
VEGAS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH COMMON AND WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN A STRONGLY FORCED PATTERN
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN
EVOLUTION EMERGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK. TROUGH STRETCHED
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
DIG TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MAKING EASTWARD SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING FROM ARCTIC
CANADA WESTWARD TOT HE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A QUICK TRAILING WAVE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM FORM
CENTRAL COLORADO TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS NOW
PAINTING A DEEPER SHORTWAVE LATE TUESDAY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...AND DIFFER ON SPEED OF MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. ECMWF HAS THIS ONE OUTTA HERE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
WINTRY WAVE AMPLIFIES FROM ARCTIC CANADA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY...AND DIGS THIS INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SONORA IN NORTHERN MEXICO. GFS SOLUTION LACKS THIS DEEP
DRAMA...SHEARING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVES EASTWARD AND KEEPING
THEM CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO...WHICH SITS IN NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF CLOSED LOW IS A NEW FEATURE
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...THUS WILL SEE IF THIS REAPPEARS IN
FUTURE RUNS WITH BETTER CONTINUITY.

OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTHWARD WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
TIER OVER THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SOUTHBOUND PROGRESS
TO INTERSTATE 40 IN THE WEST. EASTERN WINDS WILL BACK OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND WESTWARD PUSH OF THE COLD WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE EASTERN SNOW EVENT TO COME. SNOW COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
SNOW REACHING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
SANGRE DE CRISTO SUMMITS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN SUMMITS...WILL
BE MOST FAVORED FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. PORTIONS OF CHAVES AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY HAVE SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN FOR AWHILE
AS ICY RAIN CHANGES OVER TO WET SNOW. 20 TO 30 DEGREE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROPS TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH NORTHEAST
PLAINS SPOTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOTS OF TEENS AND 20S
ELSEWHERE. WIND SPEEDS WILL RATCHET DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT EVENING
GUSTS AND DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH...AND OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL SET UP SOME OVERNIGHT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS COMING IN A LITTLE HIGHER THIS ROUND...AND
ACCOUNTING FOR ENHANCEMENTS ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...HAVE EXPANDED WINTER STORM WARNING COVERAGE THIS
ROUND TO THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND
PLACED MOST REMAINING ZONES UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR THURSDAY...AXIS OF TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING INTO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS COLD PUSH
OVER THE EAST MAKES INTENSE EFFORT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. VIGOROUS UP SLOPE FLOW AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL SHIFT AND INTENSIFY SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE EAST...WITH
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND PILED UP ON THE EAST SLOPES AND SUMMITS OF THE
MANZANO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS...AND ON THE SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES
BORDERING THE SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY IN CATRON COUNTY.
FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A THREAT IN THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY OVER
CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. 30 TO 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DROPS FROM THOSE LOGGED ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
EAST...WITH CENTRAL POINTS DROPPING 15 TO 25 DEGREES...AND EASTERN
SPOTS 8 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES. CLIMATE
COMPARISONS PUT THESE TEMPERATURES 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW EARLY
DECEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW OVER THE
CENTRAL...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEST.
THURSDAY WINDS WILL BE MUCH REDUCED...WITH SOME SOUTHWEST
BREEZINESS CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
CHUPADERA MESA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW TAPERING OFF AND
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT

FOR FRIDAY...BRISK AND BLUSTERY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS
WESTERN TROUGH MAKES FAST PASS ACROSS THE STATE...LEAVING ARCTIC
AIR MASS UNTOUCHED AS IT DEPARTS. ONLY MODEST TEMPERATURE
RELIEF...MOST OF THIS FOR THE FRIGID EAST...AS SKIES CLEAR AND
SNOW ENDS. COLD PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO LATE FRIDAY WILL REDEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
EAST...WITH MODEST ACCUMULATION SHOWING UP MOSTLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...WESTBOUND COLD FRONT SLOSHED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES STRENGTHENING
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES WORKING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD BUT LESS INTENSE
SNOW COVERAGE OVER THE EAST...WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER IN OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS.
UPSTREAM...AMPLIFYING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...TROUGH WILL BLUSTER AND SWEEP
ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR CLEARING
SKIES...CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LAST OF THE
SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. SOME MODEST
TEMPERATURE MODERATION ON TUESDAY...WITH SPOTS REMAINING 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW MID DECEMBER NORMALS.

SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NM
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. FOUR DISTINCT DISTURBANCES WITHIN THAT FLOW
WILL IMPACT THE STATE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IS ONGOING AND WILL
EXIT EAST THURSDAY MORNING. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW THE FIRST...CONTINUING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FLOW WILL BE IN TRANSITION FRIDAY...SETTING UP
A THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL DIG DEEPER INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE
SATURDAY AND SWEEP ACROSS NM FROM THE WEST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE THE NEXT BEST PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS AND WIND. THE FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT BE FAIRLY
MOISTURE STARVED.

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS NW NM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.
WINDS HAVE FINALLY INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NE WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT AND USHER
IN COOLER TEMPS AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS A RESULT...SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES AREA WIDE.

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE SPILLING INTO THE STATE WITH THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE THURSDAY. AS EACH FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH DURING
THE DAY...THE FOCUS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL SHIFT TO AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DESPITE THE COOLER
AIR...DECENT WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW VENT RATES TO
REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
HOWEVER...VENT RATES WILL PLUMMET AND BECOME POOR BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH
OF THE STATE...THOUGH 25 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. OVERNIGHT RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING UP AND BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO PERSISTENT
EASTERLY UP SLOPE FLOW. WARMING WILL BE MINIMAL AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHTER WINDS AND
GENERALLY LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE FRIDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESTRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS THE THIRD DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM FOR
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENT. AS THE THIRD
DISTURBANCE EXITS LATE MONDAY...THE FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...CAUSING SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO MONDAY MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED TO DAYTIME HIGHS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE
FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP COLD AIR ENTRENCHED WITH POOR VENT
RATES LIKELY TUESDAY.

24/44

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-512>516-521>524-528>534-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>509-511-517>520-525>527-535-536-538.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

907 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013

.UPDATE...
...ESTANCIA VALLEY AND EAST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES IN THE CROSSHAIRS
FOR HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT THRU THURSDAY...

GUYER

.PREV DISCUSSION...714 PM MST WED DEC 4 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIND IS BECOMING LESS OF AN AVIATION HAZARD AS SPEEDS LOWER. THE
MAIN COLD FRONT TO WATCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE GUSTS COULD RANGE BETWEEN 25 TO 30
KT. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE FOUND WITH THE BAND OF SNOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. LATEST MODELS SHOW
THIS BAND REMAINING MORE CONSOLIDATED AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT SOME SNOWFALL AT AEG/SAF AND
ABQ THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE BEST TIME FOR THESE SITES TO
EXPERIENCE SNOWFALL AND REDUCED CIGS/VIS WILL BE 8Z TO 14Z. AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN LOOK FOR THIS CHANGE IN UPDATED
TERMINAL FORECASTS. MVFR AND SOME IFR AND EVEN LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SNOW BAND. AS THURS
PROGRESSES THE SNOW BAND WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. LVS/TCC AND EVEN
ROW SHOULD BE IMPACTED.

SHY

24/44

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-512>516-521>524-528>534-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501>509-511-517>520-525>527-535-536-538.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

958 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

UPDATE FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND SKY COVER. A BATCH OF STRATUS
HAS EXPANDED AND DRIFTED SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
AREA IS MODELED WELL BY THE 13KM RAP AND PERSISTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT SATURDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

ARCTIC AIR FIRMLY IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL. DIMINISHED WINDS
DEEP SNOW COVER AND AND THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO FALL INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. EVEN A MODEST AMOUNT OF WIND WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 40 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH
C=SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST. ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME CLOUDS...AND LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
HOLD THE WIND CHILLS IN THE ADVISORY CATEGORY. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE FURTHER ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH. WILL CONCENTRATE TO ION THE MOST HAZARDOUS ASPECTS OF THE
ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FIRST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A BRIEF PHASING OF THE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
STREAMS SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NORTHERN STREAM TAKING FIRM CONTROL
AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST OF THE ARCTIC AIR RETREATS
NORTH.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS
THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM COLORADO INTO
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS. WITH SNOW RATIOS AT 20 TO 1...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTH WILL REMAIN DRY BUT VERY COLD.
EXPECTING A WIND CHILL HEADLINE/ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS
AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW...THUS WILL NOT SEE WIND
CHILL CRITERIA BEING MET CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY BUT VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN
25 AND 39 BELOW ZERO...WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER REMAINS POISED TO
SWEEP THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG H85 WINDS
OF 50KT WILL ACCOMPANY THE CLIPPER. HOW MUCH OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL
TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE IS STILL UNKNOWN. GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND AN ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATE IS NOT SEEN UNTIL FARTHER UP IN THE SOUNDING. THUS THERE MAY BE
A DISCONNECT WITH LINKING UP TO THESE STRONGEST WINDS. CONCUR WE
WILL HAVE WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...WHICH
WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT NOT READY TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT AT THIS TIME. HAVE COLLABORATED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND INCREASED WINDS BUY 5KT OVER THE ALLBLEND.
WILL AWAIT FUTURE RUNS BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES. DO EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT OR POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH UP TO ONE
INCH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WE WILL LIKELY NEED WIND
CHILL HEADLINES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTH
AND EXTENDING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH READINGS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 BELOW ZERO.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. GENERALLY A DRY AND
COLD PATTERN DURING THIS TIME. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15
AND 28 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST
FROM ZERO TO 15 ABOVE. NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY MAY ALLOW ANOTHER
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND ALLBLEND BOTH ADVERTISE THIS...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND WILL IMPACT KMOT
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH
00Z SATURDAY.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-034>037-046>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ031>033-040>045.

UPDATE...RK
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...RK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

710 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST SUNDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MAINTAINED INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
630 PM UPDATE...REVISED POPS/WINDS OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY FOLLOWING
LATEST NAM AND RAP TIMING. SCT SHRA OVER THE MTNS ATTM SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IMPROVES AHEAD OF
FRONT...WHICH IS STILL TAKING ITS TIME PUSHING ACRS THE MTNS. RAP
AND SOME CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRONTAL BAND WILL WEAKEN IN THE
MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND REDEVELOP IN THE PIEDMONT JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
THUNDER CHANCES SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH IN THE FCST...THOUGH MORE
ACTIVITY OVER OUR CWFA IS EXPECTED THAN AREAS WEST...WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED. MUCAPE BEST ACRS THE SOUTH...AND KEPT
MAINLY A CHC MENTION THERE.

AT 230 PM EST FRIDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN USA
PERSISTS. THE RESULT WILL BE A INCREASE IN WAVELENGTH...AND MINOR
DEAMPLIFICATION. A SHORTWAVE IN THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN
AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE TROUGH AND CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY DAWN...ACCOMPANIED BY A
BROAD BAND OF PRECIPITATION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT LEAVES THE MOUNTAINS
AND HEATING ABATES...REDUCING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION.

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE...AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENDS WITH VEERING WINDS.
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE TN BORDER WILL ENSUE...BUT COLD ADVECTION
WILL HAVE JUST BEGUN...AND NO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER CLOUD COVER.

DESPITE THE EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...CLOUDS COVER AND SCATTERED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MAXIMUMS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE EARLY IN THE DAY AND NEAR NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS
THE FRONT. BY LATE IN THE DAY A VERY COLD LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NC MOUNTAIN BORDERING TN...BUT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM EST FRIDAY...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MOST OF
THE REGION PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THIS WON/T BE THE TYPE OF COLD AIR
DAMMING EVENT WHERE THE COLD AND DRY AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE AS
THE PCPN DEVELOPS. IN FACT...IT WILL TAKE A PCPN INDUCED LLVL
AGEOSTROPHIC ADJUSTMENT TO REALLY DRIVE THE COOL AIR INTO THE REGION
TO THE POINT THE SFC TEMPS DROP TO FREEZING. THEREFORE...I/D EXPECT
PCPN TO START AS RAIN AND GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT OF THE BLUE RIDGE...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
THE FOOTHILLS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

OVERALL THE THINKING ON THIS SHIFT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE MID
SHIFT. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE QPF INTO THE
WEDGE BNDRY ON THE LATEST GFS WHILE THE NAM IS LIGHTER. PERHAPS THIS
EXPLAINS WHY THE GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS NOW HAVE NEARLY A HALF INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN AT HICKORY WHILE THE NAM HAS NOTHING. RATHER THAN
CHASE INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS...I/M GOING TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
SREF CONSENSUS. I/LL ALSO KEEP FREEZING RAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO
AREAS ON THE NAM WHERE THE SFC WET BULB IS FREEZING OR BELOW.
TYPICALLY THIS WORKS WELL FOR ME WITH ICE EVENTS. I WILL EXPAND THE
WATCH JUST A LITTLE...TO INCLUDE BURKE...CATAWBA IREDELL AND DAVIE
COUNTIES. I/D SAY MY CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST PARTS OF THESE
COUNTIES WILL HIT ICE STORM CRITERIA IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH...THAT BEING AROUND 50 PERCENT. AT THE VERY LEAST...WE CAN
TRANSITION THESE LOWER CONFIDENCE ZONES TO AN ADVISORY.

GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. FORTUNATELY THIS MEANS THAT ROADS SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES FROM ICE-LADEN TREES. AS THE
PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY SUNDAY EVENING...EVERYONE SHOULD SEE
SFC TEMPERATURES RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING.

LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW AND
A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF QPF...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS COULD CAUSE SOME GOOD RISES ALONG THE TUCKASEGEE RIVER AND IT/S
TRIBUTARIES...BUT I DON/T THINK THIS WILL BE ENOUGH PCPN TO CAUSE
FLOODING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...GOOD CONFIDENCE IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE AS
THE OP MODELS ARE AGREEING WELL WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND THE MESOSCALE MASS FIELDS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WX FCST.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS EAST OVER THE CWFA TUE AND SOME
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COULD HELP SPAWN A FEW GENERAL
TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN TIER COUNTIES. BACK TO THE WEST...THERE SHOULD
BE LINGERING HIGH RH IN THE COLD AIR TO PRODUCE LOW ACCUM -SNSH
ACROSS THE WRN/MOST MTNS THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE. AFTER TUE...THE UPPER
PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY CONFLNT OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE WRN RIDGE BRINGING DOWN A 1040 MB CANADIAN HIGH WED
REINFORCING A CONTINENTAL HIGH ALREADY OVER THE AREA. THUS...WILL
ANTICIPATE A DRY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MAINTAINED IN A
RELATIVELY LOW THETA/E AIRMASS THROUGH THU. SOME CI/ACU WILL BE
PRESENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES WHILE A
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS WEST AND INSTIGATES WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER TX BY
LATE FRI. A MOIST ATL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE EARLY FRI AND ISENT
LIFT -SHRA ARE PROBABLE BEGINNING EARLY SOUTH INCREASING IN COVERAGE
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW LAYERED THICKNESSES SUPPORT AN EARLY
MORNING -SN/RA MIX FRI ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...HOWEVER SFC
MINS ARE NOT VERY CONFIDENT AT THAT TIME RANGE.

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR WITH S TO SW WINDS THIS EVENING PERHAPS WITH
OCCASIONAL LOW END GUSTS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE AREA THOUGH
THEY ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASE TOWARD DAWN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. GUIDANCE PRETTY SOLID
ON MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE MEMBERS
INDICATING IFR. WITH WIDESPREAD IFR OVER EAST TN ATTM IN THE FRONTAL
PRECIP...DID ALLOW A PERIOD OF IFR DURING SHRA. WSHFT TO NW
ANTICIPATED JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...GOING NE THEREAFTER WITH GUSTS
MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS POST FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS THAT AT LEAST
SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE MTNS THIS EVENING AS FRONT
SLOWLY ENTERS THE REGION. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE IN THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THRU...FLIPPING WINDS TO
NW. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS BEFORE HEAVIER...MORE
STEADY RAIN ARRIVES WITH THE FRONT. CIGS LOOK TO DROP TO IFR AT MOST
SITES IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE THE WIND SHIFT
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO VEER INTO SATURDAY. CIGS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO RETURN TO MVFR FOR THE EARLY HRS OF THE DAY AND THEN VFR
ACRS THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT WITH THE FRONTAL MOISTURE
LINGERING ACRS THE SOUTH MVFR LIKELY TO LAST ALL DAY.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS EACH NIGHT AND PERHAPS
WELL THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS CAN BE
EXPECTED. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NRN NC
MTNS/FOOTHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY ACROSS MAINLY UPSTATE SC.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z
KCLT HIGH 98% HIGH 81% HIGH 87% MED 71%
KGSP HIGH 94% HIGH 85% MED 76% HIGH 82%
KAVL MED 79% MED 69% MED 75% HIGH 89%
KHKY HIGH 96% HIGH 80% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 94% HIGH 80% MED 75% HIGH 82%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 89% HIGH 84% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY DEC 6TH...

AVL...73 IN 1998
CLT...78 IN 1998
GSP...76 IN 1998

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-501>506.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JAT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...DEO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

404 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...AS OF WRITING...COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED ALL BUT SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY AND OFFSHORE
MARINE ZONES. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE
LIGHT PRECIP AND TEMPS. SHALLOW AND DRY AIRMASS FROM SFC TO H9 IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATE EVENING /AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/ WAA OVER SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS SHOULD
INCREASE RESULTING IN LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN DEVELOPING...WITH THE
PRECIP FORECAST REFLECTING A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND TTU 4KM WRF
/GIVEN BETTER MODEL RESOLUTION AND BETTER HANDLING OF SHALLOW
AIRMASS/ THE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS H5 S/W DISTURBANCE KICKS EAST AND H85
FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE CWA...WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
OF FRIDAY CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS
TO HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NAM IS THE DRIEST AND EVEN WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME SIGNIFICANT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY /WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF HINTING AT SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL/. GFS AND CMC ARE MORE
PESSIMISTIC AND KEEP THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST A
FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE...PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. WEAK
COASTAL TROUGHING TRIES TO DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF CWA. TEMPS
FRI NIGHT COULD APPROACH FREEZING ACROSS N/NE ZONES WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. AT THIS TIME...ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO BE
BRIEF AND ISOLATED IN NATURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE TRICKY AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN LOWEST 100 MB
COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE. FEEL THAT
GREATEST EVAP COOLING WILL BE ACROSS NE ZONES AND THUS HAVE
COOLEST TEMPS DRAWN THERE. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY 25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A
LITTLE WARMER THAN FORECAST VALUES IF ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE COLDER THAN TONIGHT AS
STRONGER CAA OCCURS WITH ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO AT
LEAST THE MID 30S. WITH CAA ADVECTION OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT...SOME LOCATIONS /ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAINS AND VICTORIA
REGION/ MAY HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES REACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA /WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF AT LEAST 10 MPH/. WILL BE SOMETHING TO TAKE A LOOK WITH
FRIDAY/S FORECAST PACKAGES.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE OZARKS BY
SUNDAY MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925-85H LAYER ALONG WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT
85H INCREASES TO 35-45 KNOTS. AT THE BEGINNING OF SATURDAY...SHALLOW
COLD AIR MASS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR FROM TILDEN OVER TO
BEEVILLE AND VICTORIA. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THE
DAY SUNDAY WITH A POSSIBLE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OUT WEST FOR
A SLIGHT WARM UP. BUT THE NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWNSTREAM FROM AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE INTO ALASKA
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DISPERSAL OF ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL REACH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST AND A VERY
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HANDLE ENERGY
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LATE IN THE PERIOD. ECMWF SHOWS A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO INTO TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THAT WOULD LEAD TO SOME MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE AND POSSIBLY INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. BUT FOR NOW WENT
WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SHOWED ONLY A MODEST WARM UP TO THE MID/UPPER 50S BY
THURSDAY.
&&

.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS
MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 41 44 35 38 35 / 50 60 20 40 50
VICTORIA 36 41 32 36 33 / 60 70 20 50 50
LAREDO 44 51 35 40 36 / 50 30 10 20 20
ALICE 40 44 34 37 34 / 50 50 20 40 40
ROCKPORT 41 45 33 38 37 / 60 70 20 50 50
COTULLA 41 48 32 38 33 / 60 40 10 20 20
KINGSVILLE 41 46 34 38 35 / 50 60 20 40 40
NAVY CORPUS 43 46 35 39 38 / 50 60 20 50 50

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT
O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

1152 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

PRIMARY CONCERN...ONSET OF FREEZING PRECIP.

ARCTIC AIR IS BEGINNING TO SPILL ACROSS THE RED RIVER...AND
PRESSURE RISES UPSTREAM SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONTAL
INVERSION...AND THESE CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST.

THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE VERY
LIGHT IF NOT ENTIRELY VIRGA. METROPLEX TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
FREEZING BY SUNSET THURSDAY...BUT THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY EVENING...PERSISTING THROUGH
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.

WACO...
GROUND FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS NORTH WINDS AND DRY ADVECTION
INCREASE. THE ONSET OF POTENTIALLY FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 06Z WACO TAF.

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING BALLOON DATA HAS BEEN ANALYZED AND AT 850MB IT
INDICATES VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE PLAINS IS NOW POURING SOUTH.
DODGE CITY REPORTED -10C AT 850MB AND NORTH PLATTE HAD -17C WITH
NORTH WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS AND PRESSURES WERE
NOW RISING TO OUR NORTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO THE VERY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
ACROSS THE PLAINS GIVE A BETTER INDICATION OF WHAT OUR SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THAN THE CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE
DO. THIS IS BECAUSE THE AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT UNDERGOES GRADUAL
SUBSIDENCE BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE AT A GIVEN LOCATION.
850MB IS A GREAT LEVEL TO ANALYZE ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA FOR
AN APPROXIMATION OF WHAT OUR SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE HERE. ASSUMING
ONLY ADIABATIC COMPRESSIONAL WARMING TAKES PLACE .../I.E. NO
SUNSHINE/RADIATIVE/LATENT HEAT CHANGES OCCUR/... THE -10C
EXTRAPOLATES TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 30S F AND THE -17C TO MID
20S F. THIS AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALSO OF NOTE...THE 6-12 HOUR OLD FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS/SREF/NAM WERE 2-4 DEG C TOO WARM AT 850MB ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALL OF THIS RAISES OUR CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO UNDERESTIMATE THE SPEED OF THIS COLD AIR AND THAT THE COLDER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE EARLIER.

THE RAP HAS SO FAR DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB WITH THIS FRONT AND IT IS
FORECASTING THE FRONT TO CLEAR THE SOUTHERN CWA BY SUNRISE. AS A
RESULT HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS TOMORROW. THE RAP IS ALSO
FORECASTING THE FREEZING LINE TO REACH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND
STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP WILL ORIGINATE ABOVE 700MB OR ABOUT 10000 FEET WHICH WILL
LIMIT ITS INTENSITY. FURTHERMORE THE AIR BELOW IT WILL BE VERY DRY
AND SOME OF THIS PRECIP WILL BE LOST TO EVAPORATION BEFORE IT CAN
REACH THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS IT IS LIKELY THAT PRECIP WILL REACH
THE GROUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL PUSH SURFACE TEMPS INTO THE 20S. WHILE GROUND
SURFACES ARE STILL VERY WARM...TEMPS IN THE 20S AND WINDS OF 15
MPH WILL BE ENOUGH TO COOL ELEVATED SURFACES/BRIDGES BELOW
FREEZING TO START ACCUMULATING ICE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING BEGINS AT NOON IN THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF
A CISCO TO WEATHERFORD TO SHERMAN LINE AND THIS REGION MAY BEGIN
TO SEE IMPACTS BY AFTERNOON.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE QUESTIONABLE. EITHER WAY FEEL THAT IT IS TOO
LOW OF A RISK FOR IMPACTS TO BRING THE WARNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EVEN THOUGH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SHOW UP ON
CARS AND TREES BY THE AFTERNOON RUSH.

THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WERE TO INCREASE ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS NORTH OF I-20.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION
FROM FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S AS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MOVES
INTO THE REGION. EVEN DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
RAIN DROPS THAT WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING WHEN
THEY REACH THE GROUND...STRONG COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THIS EVENT WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
AND LIKELY IN 20S ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WE ARE PARTICULARLY
CONCERNED ABOUT DENTON...COLLIN...COOKE...GRAYSON...AND FANNIN
COUNTIES WHERE THE JUXTAPOSITION OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT
ICING OF TREES IN THIS AREA WOULD LEAD TO LIMB BREAKAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES THAT MAY LAST FOR DAYS IN SOME COMMUNITIES. FURTHERMORE
NOT ALL TREES HAVE LOST THEIR LEAVES YET WHICH WILL ADD TO TREE
LIMB STRESS DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF MORE ICE. MORE SLEET IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ICE ACCUMULATION ON
TREES AND HOPEFULLY MITIGATE DAMAGE TO THE POWER GRID BUT IT IS A
TOUGH CALL. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA...AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20...SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
DISRUPTIONS WILL OCCUR FROM ICE ON ROADS. ICE MAY LINGER FOR DAYS
AS SKIES STAY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
ANOTHER SHOT AT SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

WILL BE UPDATING THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCREASE THE
SEVERITY OF THE WORDING AND IMPACTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

TR.92

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

WE/VE UPGRADED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO CANTON LINE AND ADDED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHEASTWARD TO A TEMPLE TO PALESTINE
LINE.

TODAY/S FRONT HAS REACHED A NORTH OF PARIS TO EASTLAND LINE BY 2
PM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR IS
SPREADING THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WILL INVADE NORTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN OVERNIGHT DUE TO FRONTAL LIFTING AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH ON
THURSDAY DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS
FREEZING RAIN BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MID EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A
HAMILTON TO DALLAS TO PARIS LINE WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED FROM
COMANCHE TO SHERMAN. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IF THIS RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...THEN A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM COULD DEVELOP IF TEMPERATURES CAN FALL INTO THE 20S.
HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A CASE WHERE RAIN FALLING THROUGH THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT GAINS ENOUGH HEAT TO PREVENT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING. THUS...THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TRANSITION TO ALL FREEZING RAIN REMAINS
HARD TO DETERMINE. IT COULD REMAIN WEST OF THE METROPLEX THROUGH
FRIDAY MIDDAY OR IT COULD MIGRATE EAST ACROSS THE METROPLEX BEFORE
DAYBREAK AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY ANY TOKEN...TEMPERATURES
ABOVE HOUSE TOPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE TO ACCUMULATE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND STRUCTURES...AND THIS COULD BRING DOWN POWER
LINES AND TREE LIMBS...AND MAKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ICY.

AS THE FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ON FRIDAY...SLEET WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
SLEET AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL UP TO ONE HALF INCH. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL RETURN
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.

WITH COLD TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS FORECAST...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND IN SOME AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ONCE THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES OVER THE REGION...HIGHS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE 40 DEGREES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LOWS WILL VARY DAY TO DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY WILL BE IN THE TEENS
AND 20S THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME RED RIVER
LOCATIONS MAY SEE SINGLE DIGITS ON TUESDAY MORNING. 75

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 37 26 29 19 / 20 50 90 50 10
WACO, TX 40 43 29 32 21 / 20 30 80 50 10
PARIS, TX 35 36 27 29 17 / 20 50 90 60 10
DENTON, TX 35 35 24 26 17 / 20 60 90 50 10
MCKINNEY, TX 35 36 25 27 18 / 20 50 90 50 10
DALLAS, TX 37 37 26 29 20 / 20 50 90 50 10
TERRELL, TX 37 38 27 29 20 / 20 40 90 50 10
CORSICANA, TX 40 41 29 33 22 / 20 30 80 60 10
TEMPLE, TX 42 44 30 32 22 / 20 30 80 60 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 35 35 23 25 17 / 20 60 70 40 10

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ094-095-104>107-118>123-130>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ135-
146>148-156>161.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>093-100>103-115>117-129.

25/92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1129 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TAFS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BRINGING WARM...MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION. BEGINNING TO SEE VIS DROPPING IN FOG. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AND ALSO LOOKING FOR CIGS TO DROP. EXPECTING FLYING
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR BY AROUND 07Z AND TO VLIFR A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATER. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT NEAR SUNRISE WHEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND TURN THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.
THEN CIGS WILL RISE TO MVFR LATE MORNING THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 15 WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. EXPECT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER 00Z WHICH SHOULD BE
LIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON VIS. BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
06Z AT 30 HOUR AIRPORTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...
DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAVE ALLOWED FOG TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING. WITH CONTINUED
COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
LATEST HI-RES RUC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ABOVE AND WE HAVE OPTED
TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A
CARRIZO SPRINGS TO UVALDE TO SAN ANTONIO TO AUSTIN LINE.
VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.

THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HI-RES RUC ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A
QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT. VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONG ARCTIC
FRONT IS SET TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 09Z AND INTO
AUSTIN BY 12Z AND SAT BY 15Z. MODEL RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS SUGGEST A
SLIGHT ACCELERATION OF THE FRONT POSSIBLE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE
TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD FOR THURSDAY...AND BY LATE EVENING...A FEW
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY MAY BE AT RISK OF
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ARCTIC
FRONT... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERRUN
THE ARCTIC AIR AND PRODUCE A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. PF AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW 1/10 INCH...
AND SO A WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL THREAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...
WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONFINE EARLY ICING TO
MAINLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FRIDAY AS A SHALLOW
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME CONTINUED DRY AIR REINFORCEMENT IN THE
LOWEST 3000 FT OR MORE. LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES WILL EVENTUALLY
BE REDUCED TO DRIZZLE AT THE SURFACE...SO VERY LITTLE ICING IS
ANTICIPATED...DESPITE SEVERAL HOURS OF OPPORTUNITY OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SLEET SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING FROM THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS ON
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THIS AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER THAN THE ONE
PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING. IF ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS DETECTED IN
THE BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES THAT
RESULT WOULD WARRANT A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WARNING TO BE
ISSUED.

BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES IN
THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
AS IT DOES SO...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WAKE SUBSIDENCE TO
CLEAR OUT SKIES AND MODIFY THE TEMPERATURES TO END THE FREEZING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MODEL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
GFS...SHOW THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE
SHALLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THUS FURTHER INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR CLEARING SKIES. NEVERTHELESS...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
FURTHER REINFORCED ON MONDAY WITH THE COLDEST MORNING LOWS OF THE
SEASON EXPECTED OVER MANY AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...
LEADING TO A HIGHER CHANCE FOR CLOUD COVER AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 51 57 33 38 29 / 10 30 70 60 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 54 59 34 38 28 / 10 30 70 60 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 60 62 37 39 29 / 10 30 70 50 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 46 49 31 35 25 / 10 30 70 50 20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 60 68 39 47 33 / - 20 60 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 48 53 31 35 26 / 10 30 70 60 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 60 67 38 40 33 / 10 20 60 30 20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 59 61 36 38 29 / 10 30 70 60 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 65 67 38 39 33 / 10 30 60 70 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 64 36 39 32 / 10 20 70 50 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 63 65 38 41 34 / 10 20 60 50 20

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BASTROP...BEXAR...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...
DIMMIT...FAYETTE...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
LAVACA...LEE...MEDINA...TRAVIS...UVALDE...WILSON...ZAVALA.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1111 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM...FOLLOWED
BY THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SURGE.

AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED 998 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DECORAH IOWA...WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM NEAR PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WISCONSIN EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. FINALLY...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WAS ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA AND IOWA.

THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LATER THIS EVENING...THEN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD MAKE A CLEAN SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
03Z. THE SURGE OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW IS KEEPING
WINTER PRECIPITATION THREAT LOW AT THIS TIME BUT STILL PLENTY OF
1/4 SM VISIBILITIES OR LOWER. LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR IMPROVED VISIBILITIES...AND AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-90 IN WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY
HANG ONTO THE REDUCED VISIBILITIES THE LONGEST.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG LOW LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION
COMBINED WITH VERY LITTLE ICE SATURATION ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR CAPTURE THIS FAIRLY WELL.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION...THE LIFT BEGINS TO DROP OFF BUT THERE IS LIKELY TO BE
A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. AS EVEN COLDER AIR WORKS IN
ALOFT...SATURATION IN THE ICE GROWTH LAYER RETURNS SO PRECIPITATION
COULD END AS SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE TAPERING
OFF ALTOGETHER TOWARD MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT LIKELY
COULD BE ENDED TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY MORNING...GOOD CONSENSUS THAT PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND 900 MB.
LIFT IS VERY WEAK BUT THE SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD PUT THE DGZ
CLOSER TO 900 MB. THIS SUPPORTS VERY LIGHT BUT OCCASIONAL TO PERIODS
OF SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED CLOSER TO ROCHESTER AND LA CROSSE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM ARE ARCTIC AIR MASS SURGES AND
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS AND QUICKLY DEPARTS NORTHEAST OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY WHILE THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH. AS WELL ADVERTISED PREVIOUSLY...THE ARCTIC AIR SURGE
BEGINS IN EARNEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS NOTED BY 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM AN AVERAGE OF -8C 12Z THURSDAY...TO -17C
BY 18Z FRIDAY. 850 MB STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES FALL TO 2 TO 2.5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHICH IS NOT RECORD COLD TERRITORY BUT
CERTAINLY UNSEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE FRESH SNOWPACK
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS LIKELY TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS WELL. LATEST
SNOW DEPTH READINGS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A FEW INCHES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO ALMOST 10 INCHES IN TAYLOR COUNTY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY BY A FEW DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A NOTICEABLY COLDER DAY ON TAP THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. STIFF NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. FOR REFERENCE...NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS. AS FAR AS LOW TEMPERATURES GO...SEVERAL
MORNINGS OF SUB ZERO READINGS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS LIKELY NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH TO OUR
WEST. THIS KEEPS A 10 TO 15 MPH WIND DURING THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 15 TO 25 DEGREE BELOW
ZERO RANGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
COLD BUT DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
HOWEVER...ON SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A SURFACE
LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. PREVIOUS MODEL
CYCLES...AND THE 04.12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT WHICH BOOSTS CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA 18Z
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 06Z MONDAY. ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH COUPLED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IS LIKELY TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF LIFT TO SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE BOOSTED
TO LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ELSEWHERE. STILL TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS
LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -20 TO
-25C RANGE. AIDED BY A POSSIBLE FRESH SNOWPACK...WIDESPREAD MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY WITH TEENS
BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

WINDS HAVE INCREASED POST A COLD FRONT...AND WILL STAY STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. DON/T SEE A
LLWS THREAT AT THIS TIME.

CIGS ARE PROBLEMATIC AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN WHEN THE MVFR
/TO IFR/ CLOUD DECK WILL CLIMB/CLEAR. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME SATURATION UNDER AN INVERSION
THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME
IMPROVEMENT ON THU...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS...BUT LIKELY
STAYING MVFR. THESE 1500-2500 KFT CIGS COULD HANG AROUND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY POINTS TO
CLEARING OVER WESTERN MN...BUT VAD/PROFILER WINDS ARE WEST TO
NORTHWEST...SUGGESTING THIS CLEARING WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
KRST/KLSE. GOING TO STAY PESSIMISTIC WITH THE MVFR CIGS FOR NOW AND
HOLD THEM THROUGH MUCH OF THU...BRINGING VFR IN FOR THE EVENING
HOURS.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...ZT
LONG TERM....ZT
AVIATION.....RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

501 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE REGION TODAY...AND DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN BAND OF PCPN IS NOW OFFSHORE PER RADAR AND STLT. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WX ADVY AS A RESULT. ONLY SOME RESIDUAL
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR AND VERIFIED BY
OBS. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED DOWN TO KFRG AND KISP ON LI.

FOLLOWED THE HRRR TIL 11Z FOR THE RESIDUAL LGT PCPN THIS MRNG.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW TODAY. EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WAS INVOF PORT JERVIS...AND ADVECTING EWD...AT 330 AM.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
MODIFYING ARCTIC HI WILL BUILD OVER THE CWA TNGT. MSAS ANALYSIS AT
8Z PLACED THE 1044 CENTER OF THE HI OVER ERN MT. THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD TEMPS WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
PINE BARRENS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUT A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
TO FILTER IN FROM THE SW.

AN INCREASING HIGH OVC CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUN WITH BACKING MID AND
UPR LVL FLOW. CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN IN THE AFTN. GFS TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LIFT IS FAIRLY ROBUST AFT 18Z...SO IT WILL JUST BE A
MATTER OF HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR SATURATION AND PCPN...WHICH BASED
ON THE 00Z SUITE OF DATA WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME RAIN
MIXED IN ON LI AND IN THE CITY. FCST HAS BEEN SPED UP WITH MOST
SPOTS WITH CHCS FOR SNOW BY DARK. BASED ON THE CURRENT TIMING OF
THE SYSTEM...LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED BY 5 PM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK AND THEN AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

WEATHER THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE POLAR
VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY...WHICH WILL ROTATE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ONE OF THESE
SHORTWAVES PHASING WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN
US...RESULTING IN A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
REGION WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. BASED ON CLOSLEY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS TRACK OF A DOUBLE
BARRELED COASTAL LOW...A TRANSITION TO RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. ACROSS INTERIOR
AREAS...PARTICULARLY NW ZONES...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE
POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A BRIEF TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN. SREF
PLUMES INDICATING A MEAN OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS FAR NW
ZONES...WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS FOR CITY COAST. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A WINTRY MORNING COMMUTE FOR INTERIOR AREAS...WHILE AT
THE CITY/COAST ROADS SHOULD MAINLY BE WET WITH RAIN AND RISING
TEMPS.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WITH DRYING CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY...BUT THE
FRONT LINGERS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
FOR ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO POSSIBLY BRUSH THE REGION
WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THIS TIME BASED ON MODEL SPREAD.

THEN FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...MODEL INDICATING SEVERAL
PIECES OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER CANADA SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN
US. CURRENTLY HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TO STAY BELOW FREEZING FROM
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY BASED ON ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE UPPER TEEN/LOWER 20S
FOR HIGHS LATE WEEK IF POLAR VORTEX DROPS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND/SE CANADA AS DEPICTED BY SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAIN PRECIP SHIELD HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...WITH MAINLY JUST DRIZZLE
AND ISOLATED LIGHT RASN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 10-12Z. WITH
TEMPS AT FREEZING AT KSWF POTETNIAL EXISTS FOR -FZDZ THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK.

IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E AFTER
11-13Z...WITH VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. ISOLD GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KLGA/KEWR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH
SAT AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.TONIGHT AND SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.

.MARINE...
NLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER OFF MONTAUK...SO THE SCA HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THRU THE EVE FOR THE ERN MOST OCEAN ZONE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON SUN WITH HIPRES OVER THE WATERS.

SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ONTHE OCEAN AND LI SOUND WATERS...POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH THE
REGION...BUT OCEAN SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS. MARGINAL SCA
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW MON NIGHT/EARLY
TUE...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN. THE NEXT TIME OF CONCERN WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD
EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS
WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES
TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.

DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

414 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOLLOWED THE HRRR TIL 11Z FOR THE RESIDUAL LGT PCPN THIS MRNG.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW TODAY. EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WAS INVOF PORT JERVIS...AND ADVECTING EWD...AT 330 AM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA INTO MONDAY. AS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION
WILL POSSIBLY START OUT AS SNOW AND/OR SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ON
MONDAY...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. THE
FAR NORTHERN ZONES COULD HOLD ON THE WINTRY MIXTURE LONGER INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE WARM AIR PUSHES THROUGH.

AT THIS TIME...LIGHT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY INLAND. WHATEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATION THE
CITY/COAST COULD MANAGE WOULD BE WASHED AWAY FAIRLY QUICKLY BY RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DRY WEATHER...BUT WITH COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.

IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E AFTER
11-13Z...WITH VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. ISOLD GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KLGA/KEWR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH
SAT AFTN/EVE.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

354 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

FOLLOWED THE HRRR TIL 11Z FOR THE RESIDUAL LGT PCPN THIS MRNG.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES AND NLY FLOW TODAY. EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD WAS INVOF PORT JERVIS...AND ADVECTING EWD...AT 330 AM.

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES EXITS TO THE E OVERNIGHT...PRECIPITATION
WILL COME TO AN END FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN ON
SAT.

P-TYPE IS ON THE VERGE OF CHANGING OVER TO -SN AT KSWF ALTHOUGH
PRECIP IS COMING TO AN END. A DEEP MOIST COLUMN IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE DZ AND FZDZ AS TEMPS FALLING BELOW THE FREEZING MARK
LATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RAIN WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...BUT
COULD MIX WITH -SNPL OR COMPLETELY CHANGEOVER TO -SN BRIEFLY BEFORE
DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN RESULTING IN DZ. FZDZ IS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KHPN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TEMP IS LOW AND THEREFORE HAVE
LEFT AS PLAIN -DZ FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE MONITORED.

GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS THROUGH 10Z OR
SO...THEN IMPROVING CONDS W TO E THEREAFTER. VFR SHOULD RETURN TO
ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. ISOLD GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
POSSIBLE AT KLGA/KEWR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH
SAT AFTN/EVE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...VFR.
.SUN NIGHT...IFR. SNOW...THEN SNOW/SLEET/RAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
SNOW/SLEET ACROSS INTERIOR.
.MON...IFR. RAIN. WINTRY MIX ACROSS INTERIOR EARLY...THEN RAIN.
SE WINDS 10-15 KT...BCMG NW LATE.
.MON NIGHT...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.TUE...VFR. W WINDS AOB 10 KT.
.WED...VFR. W WIND 15-25 KT.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY ON SUN.

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING AROUND HALF INCH TO AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT TO THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FROM LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...JMC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JMC/FIG
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

254 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH INTO IDAHO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST...SE ID WILL SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALREADY RECEIVING
SNOW. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SET IN... SNOW RATIOS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 1 MEANING WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
FLUFFY SNOW. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY... LOWER SNAKE HIGHLANDS... SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS SO MADE MENTION OF SOME
BLOWING SNOW TO GO WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BIGGEST PUSH OF SNOWFALL AFTER 11
AM TODAY WHICH IS PRETTY IN LINE WITH THE NAM. THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING... VALLEY SITES COULD SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING 9 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. EP

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. THE EXTREME COLD WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL WARM WHEN THE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH COULD KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY...THE MODELS HAVE
WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM SUBSTANTIALLY. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOME GIVEN THE CHANGE...BUT STILL CONTINUING TO MENTION SOME
SNOW IN CASE THE MODELS FLIP FLOP. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
LATE WEEK AND COULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

VALLE

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE A GOOD BET TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

VALLE

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ022>025.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

406 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOCALIZED SURFACE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL GIVE WAY TONIGHT TO THE CENTER OF A +1035 MB
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SIGNAL IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
AS WELL AS MIDLEVEL OMEGA PLAN VIEWS SUGGESTS NO DEGREE OF DYNAMIC
FORCING SUPPORTIVE FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME WITH MOISTURE PROFILES AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE...SATELLITE TRENDS ON LAKE EFFECT STRATOCUMULUS SUPPORTS A
BUILDING SCT-OVC CLOUD DECK EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD DECK MAY
VERY WELL ESTABLISH ITSELF PRIOR TO THE COMMENCEMENT OF DIURNAL
MIXING PROCESSES. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHAT SORT OF PERSISTENCE THE
SC DECK COULD HOLD DESPITE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
BACKGROUND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE RAP IS A NEW AND SUPPORTIVE
OUTLIER SUGGESTING THAT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SATURATION/CLOUD WILL EXIST
UNDER THE INVERSION BASE AT 3.5 KFT AGL. WILL TAKE THE PESSIMISTIC
CLOUD ROUTE HERE FOR A MEANINGFUL CHUNK OF TODAY. THE FORECAST WILL
READ MOSTLY CLOUDY TRANSITIONING TO PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...ROUGHLY 13 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE FORECAST QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS WHAT LOWS WILL DROP TO. IT
APPEARS THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING WITH
THE ONLY MISSING CONDITION...A FRESH SNOWPACK. DON`T HAVE A GOOD
CALIBRATED FEEL YET. SIDED WITH A MIX OF MOS...WHICH GIVES LOW TEENS
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT ISLAND...WITH MID TEENS IN DETROIT METRO.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
HEIGHT FALL CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL
PRESENT A SUSTAINABLE CONDUIT FOR MULTIPLE REINFORCING ROUNDS OF
ARCTIC AIR TO INFILTRATE SE MICHIGAN RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. LEAD PUSH OF MODIFIED ARCTIC FIRMLY IN RESIDENCE LOCALLY
TO START SUNDAY LODGED WITHIN A 1035MB LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SLOWLY
SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION. SUPPRESSED MIXING POTENTIAL WITHIN A
STABLE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL ENSURE HIGHS AGAIN HOLD IN THE
20S.

ATTENTION FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD REMAINS CENTERED ON THE
DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ANCHORING THE
BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS BARRELING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA THIS WEEKEND WILL SQUEEZE THIS WAVE
NORTHEASTWARD...THE VORTICITY CENTER SHEARING FROM NORTHERN IL/
SOUTHERN WI THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ASSESSMENT
OF LATEST 300-200MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY FIELDS SUGGEST ENOUGH
SEPARATION WILL EXIST BETWEEN THESE HEIGHT FALL CORES TO LEAVE THE
LEAD WAVE IN A MORE WEAKENED/LESS PHASED STATE AS THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE LOWER PENINSULA. WHILE THE BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITHIN THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL GET
PINCHED OFF TO THE SOUTH/EAST...SOLID DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE TO THE
INBOUND MOIST LAYER (2-4 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WITHIN THE
850-925 MB LAYER) WILL EXIST AT THE INTERFACE OF THE NORTHWARD
ARCING ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION GIVEN EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. GIVEN
THE PROJECTED TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM...STRONGEST FORCING DOES
REMAIN CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE TRI-CITIES WILL BE
ON THE FRINGE ON THE MAIN AREA OF DCVA AND BETTER CONVERGENCE.
WITH THAT SAID...CERTAINLY ENOUGH BACKGROUND ASCENT WORKING INTO
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO BRING A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE ADDED DEGREE OF FORCING AND LIKELIHOOD OF
SLIGHTLY LONGER RESIDENCE TIME WILL FOCUS THE GREATER ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL INTO THE TRI-CITIES...WHERE SOME AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH STILL SEEM PLAUSIBLE. ELSEWHERE AN INCH OR LESS WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN SNOW RATIOS EXPECTED WITH THE LOW LEVEL PROFILE
WARMING WITH TIME.

COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY ENSUES ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SHORT LIVED DRY SLOT FOR THE MORNING PERIOD
BEFORE A LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE PLUME EXPANDS EASTWARD WITHIN THE
BACKGROUND OF COLD/CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN EXTENSIVE
STRATUS DECK FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY PRODUCTION. THE MAIN ARCTIC BLAST WILL ACCOMPANY A
CLIPPER CRUISING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. A
TRAILING WAVE MAY REINFORCE THIS AIRMASS INTO WEDNESDAY...THE NET
RESULT BEING A STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE 2ND WEEK IN DECEMBER. A SOLID GRADIENT
ATTENDANT TO THESE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL PROVIDE THE
ADDITIVE WIND ELEMENT...RESULTING IN DAYTIME WIND CHILL READINGS
OF SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.MARINE...

A STRONGER WESTERLY WIND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS BACK INTO THE REGION
WILL INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR GALES MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1155 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

//DISCUSSION...

LAKE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING IN STRATUS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500
FEET TONIGHT WITH A WESTERLY FEED AT THE LOW LEVELS. THIS LAKE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE TAF SITES ON AN ON DURING THE
EVENING...MAINLY FNT AND MBS...BUT STILL MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO
PTK AND DET. OVERALL THINKING IS MBS BEING CLOSER TO THE MOISTURE
SOURCE WILL BE MOST AT RISK...WITH LOWER CHANCES AT THE METRO
AIRPORTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY WILL CLEAR OUT THIS
LAKE MOISTURE...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

FOR DTW...THINKING IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE MOISTURE WILL
ONLY BRING A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 3K FT. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A BKN DECK AT THIS LEVEL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN A BKN DECK
FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

353 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL
TO THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND CROSS
EARLY TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...PATCHY SHOWERS ARE INDICATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. PER LATEST 3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS...BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL START TO ARRIVE IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BEHIND
STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. THE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THEIR MAXIMUM THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY FALL THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON.
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE...THIS SYSTEM CONTAINS MOSTLY
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND THINK THE QPF TOTAL WILL BE RATHER LIGHT...ON
THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER INCH OF LESS FOR THE MOST PART. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY WET AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOLLOWING THE NEAR RECORD-WARMTH OF
THE PAST TWO DAYS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM SATURDAY...A STEADY LIGHT RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS...PLACING EASTERN NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WILL
BE PRESENT SUN AS WINDS JUST ALOFT REMAIN SW WITH STRONG NLY
SURFACE WINDS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING SOUTH
OVER THE AREA FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUN. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON SUN DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING IN THE 40S
INLAND TO 50S ALONG THE COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH BECOMES
A WEAK LOW THAT MOVES NNE ALONG THE NC COAST SUN NIGHT. AS THE LOW
MOVES NE OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...COLD AIR
DAMMING SCENARIO WILL SHIFT NW OF THE REGION AS SW RETURN FLOW
TAKES OVER WITH EASTERN NC AGAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. RAIN CHANCES
WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS E NC LATE SUN...WITH ONLY ISO
SHOWERS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN MON WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILD TO THE 1375-1385 METER RANGE...BUT MIXED
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION SO HELD TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S TO
UPPER 60S...ALTHOUGH GREATER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN
TEMPS REACHING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY TUES MORNING
MEANING ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP REGIME EXPECTED WITH HIGHS BEING
REALIZED IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS PLENTY OF GULF
OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN SW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE MON
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CWA TRANSITIONING TO THE REST OF THE AREA
TUES. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST OPER
MODEL RUNS BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. RAIN WILL
QUICKLY END BY TUES EVENING FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT SWEEPS
OFFSHORE. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING MOST AREAS INLAND. MODEST AGREEMENT THURS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF SC/GA WHICH MAY WRAP AROUND SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THUS ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURS. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE THURS NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI...WITH
TEMPS STILL 5-8 F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES WITH PRECIPITATION NOT LIKELY TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE IFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. N WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUN...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. A
WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH NE THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT
WITH SW FLOW TAKING OVER AND PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING WITH LOWER
CIGS LIFTING N OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THOUGH FOG MAY
BE A POSSIBILITY SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSS THE TERMINALS
FROM NW TO SE TUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH TUES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
VFR RETURNING IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 355 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING INTO
THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIME NORTH
OF CAPE LOOKOUT. LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL INDICATES SEAS AS HIGH AS 9
TO POSSIBLE 10 FEET LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE NOW OFFSHORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SUN MORNING AS N SURGE OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES WITH SEAS
ELEVATED 5-7 FT. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS SUN AFTERNOON WHICH
DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MOVES NNE ALONG THE NC COAST
SUN NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW ONCE THE WEAK LOW LIFTS
NORTH OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA MON MORNING INTO TUES WITH SW WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 3-5
FT. WINDS SHIFT NW/N AND INCREASE 15-20 KT DUE TO POST-FRONTAL CAA
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
TUES NIGHT INTO WED. SEAS BUILD 4-7 FT LATE TUES/TUES NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SE OVER THE WATERS WED WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6
FT ALTHOUGH MAY SEE HIGHER SEAS LINGER FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

103 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH
INTO SUNDAY THEN LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND CROSS
EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM SATURDAY...THE 3 KM HRRR AND RAP MODELS SHOW THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE IN THE MHX CWA UNTIL
AFTER 10Z AND MOSTLY AFTER 12Z. HAVE DROPPED POPS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DELAY. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND WILL ARRIVE IN OUR AREA BY DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT OVER NRN TIER EARLY WILL PUSH S
THRU THE REGION SATURDAY MORN. TEMPS WILL NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL CURVE WITH HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY WITH TEMPS LOWERING
WITH STRONG CAA IN WAKE OF FRONT. BY LATE AFTN TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 40S N TO LOWER 50S FAR S. MDLS SIMILAR IN SHOWING DEEP
MOISTURE MAINLY WITH AND BEHIND COLD FRONT AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. RAINFALL WILL NOT BE OVERLY
HEAVY WITH AROUND 1/4 INCH MOST SPOTS.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS...PLACING EASTERN NC IN SW FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION WILL
BE PRESENT SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS WINDS JUST ALOFT REMAIN SW
WITH STRONG NLY SURFACE WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING IN THE 40S INLAND TO
50S ALONG THE COAST. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING SUN AFTERNOON...WHICH BECOMES A WEAK LOW
THAT MOVES NNE ALONG THE NC COAST SUN NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES NE
OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...COLD AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO WILL SHIFT NW OF THE REGION AS SW RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER
WITH EASTERN NC AGAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS E NC LATE SUN...WITH ONLY ISO SHOWERS
EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN MON WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED
BACK INTO THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES BUILD TO THE 1380 METER RANGE...BUT MIXED
CLOUDS MAY INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION SO HELD TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S
TO UPPER 60S...ALTHOUGH GREATER BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN
TEMPS REACHING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EASTERN NC EARLY TUES
MORNING...MEANING ANOTHER NON-DIURNAL TEMP REGIME EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS BEING REALIZED IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
PLENTY OF GOM MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE STRONG FORCING
EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE LATE MON NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
TRANSITIONING TO THE REST OF THE FA TUE. HAVE INC POPS TO LIKELY
DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST OPERATIONAL RUNS BETWEEN GFS/ECM
AND ECM ENSEMBLE MEAN. RAIN WILL QUICKLY END BY TUE EVENING AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WED/THUR WITH LOWS
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS INLAND.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS LIMITED TO KOAJ WITH VFR
ELSEWHERE CURRENTLY. PRECIPITATION NOT LIKELY TO ARRIVE UNTIL
AFTER 12Z. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IN OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE IFR THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. N WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH SUN. A WEAK LOW OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH NE
THROUGH THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH SW FLOW TAKING OVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING WITH LOWER CIGS LIFTING N OF THE REGION...THOUGH
FOG MAY BE A POSSIBILITY SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSS THE
TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE TUES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH TUES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH VFR RETURNING IN MO SUNNY SKIES.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 1 AM SATURDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. SW WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET...BUT THE BUOY 30
MILES SE OF NEW RIVER HAS INCREASED TO 6 FEET AND EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. AS NRLY WINDS INCREASE SAT
SEAS TO 8 FT OR SO EXPECTED OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS BY AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS N SURGE OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES THROUGH SUN
MORNING. SEAS SHOULD MAX OUT AT 6 TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK
INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS SUN
AFTERNOON WHICH DEVELOPS INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MOVES NNE
ALONG THE NC COAST SUN NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW ONCE
THE WEAK LOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE WATERS SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA MON MORNING WITH SW WINDS 10-15
KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-7 FT MON
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TUE WITH WINDS TURNING SHARPLY
NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET WITH THE STRONG CAA.

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JAC/CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL/LEP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1153 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

EXPANDED THE WIND CHILL WARNING TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. 05-06 UTC OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE WIND CHILLS TO 45 BELOW ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST...AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY BUT VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN
25 AND 39 BELOW ZERO...WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE ANOTHER WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS IS DRIFTING SOUTH AND WILL IMPACT KMOT AND
POSSIBLY KISN OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE UNDER THIS
DECK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TAF SITES THROUGH 06 UTC
SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AT KBIS AND KJMS POST 06 UTC.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CST /NOON MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS POCATELLO ID

428 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...UPON FURTHER INSPECTION OF TEMPS AND WINDS WE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST...AND WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE ONCE AGAIN. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -15 TO -25
ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. MANY OTHER AREAS IN SE ID WILL LIKELY
REACH WIND CHILL VALUES OF AT LEAST -10.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE A GOOD BET TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

VALLE

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.

WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
IDZ020.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ022>025.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

1001 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TO OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHILE A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS
NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY RAIN
LEFT IS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD PUSH TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF AREAS. THIS FOLLOWS
THE HRRR DEPICTION OF THE ECHOS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
EXCEPT ACRS THE FAR NORTH...EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS LOW LEVEL N/NE FLOW TENDS TO KEEP IN THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EVEN AS BULK OF THE COLUMN DRIES OUT. LIKE THE GRIDDED
LAMP TEMPS WHICH KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
N-NE SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL COLDER AIR INTO THE MID ATLC
REGION TONIGHT...SETTING THE THE STAGE FOR THE WINTER PRECIP EVENT
SUN. JUST S CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN ACRS THE FAR SOUTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 20S N TO THE MID-UPPER 30S SE. HEADLINE-WISE...ONLY CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO ADD MECKLENBURG COUNTY TO THE WATCH. PER COORDINATION
W/ SURROUNDING OFFICES AND BASED ON LATEST THINKING...THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AMOUNTS AND SUBSEQUENT ICE
ACCUMULATION ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF FARMVILLE. ALSO DID RAISE
AN ADVSY YET AS THIS IS MAINLY STILL 3RD PERIOD.

LATEST 00Z MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW CYCLES...ALTHOUGH ONE THING OF NOTE ON BOTH THE NAM/GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS IS A FAIRLY SHORT TIME-FRAME WHEN THERE IS SATURATION
THROUGH THE -10C TO -20C LAYER (DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER). THIS IS
RATHER PRONOUNCED ACRS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE IN THESE OVERRUNNING EVENTS THERE IS INITIALLY SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT WHAT WILL LIKELY OVERCOME THAT RATHER
QUICKLY IS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY
STRONG FORCING BY 12Z ACRS SOUTHERN VA...THEN RAPIDLY LIFT THIS OFF
TO THE NORTH FROM 18Z/SUN TO 00Z/MON. THIS OFTEN AIDS THE PRECIP
IN COMING IN FAST...AND THIS IS THE MAIN REASON MECKLENBURG HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE WATCH (COULD SEE ACCUMULATING ICE HERE PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK SUN). HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN RECEIVING 0.25" OF ICE (OR
GREATER) IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TRANSITION TO A WARNING IN THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT ZONES SINCE THE PRECIP MAY BECOME RATHER LIGHT
BY LATE MORNING AND BEYOND AS THE -10C TO -20 C RAPIDLY DRIES OUT
AND THE FORCING LIFTS NORTH. CONFIDENCE FOR 0.25" ICE IS HIGHEST
ACRS THE NW ZONES AS THE DRYING IS LESS PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE
AFTN HRS AND THIS IS ALSO WHERE SFC TEMPS WILL STAY THE COLDEST THE
LONGEST...PERHAPS IN THE UPPER 20S IN WESTERN LOUISA/FLUVANNA
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THE MOST DIFFICULT REGION WITH RESPECT TO
ICE ACCUMULATION WILL PROBABLY BE METRO RICHMOND...AND IT IS
LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ALONG A SLIVER OF COUNTIES BORDERING
THE WATCH (AS WELL AS PART OF THE WATCH THAT MAY NOT GET
TRANSITIONED TO A WARNING). THESE AREAS WILL TEND TO HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S...BUT WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW 32 F THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTN. THE MD ERN SHORE MAY SEE A FEW HRS OF SLEET/SNOW AND
PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN BUT EXPECT THE MARINE LAYER TO QUICKLY CHANGE
P-TYPE TO ALL RAIN NOT MUCH AFTER 18Z. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WARM
ENOUGH OVER THE VA ERN SHORE...SE VA AND NE NC FOR PCPN TO BE JUST
RAIN FM THE START. HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NE NC COAST TO
AROUND 30 F IN LOUISA COUNTY.

WARMER AIR (TEMPS RISING ABV FREEZING) WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
NW INTO THE PIEDMONT SUN EVENING...BUT MAY NEVER MAKE IT TO
WESTERN LOUISA/FLUVANNA AND PERHAPS CUMBERLAND/GOOCHLAND. EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH THROUGH 12Z/MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BY 06Z...ENHANCING PRECIP (AND
SHOULD THIS STILL BE FREEZING RAIN THERE WOULD BE ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATION).

LOWS SUN NGT REMAINING NEARLY STEADY AROUND 30 F NW...TO THE UPPER
40S NC COASTAL AREAS.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
WATCH...WARNING OR ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR COUNTIES COULD CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GFS/NAM DIFFER WRT FRONTAL POSITION MONDAY. NAM IS FURTHER NORTH
WHERE BEST LIFT AND SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL BE WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
TSCTNS DO AGREE ON ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF EVEN IN THE SOUTH.
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS BUT QPF-WISE THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH ANY
RESIDUAL ICE ON THE GROUND WILL MAKE FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN COUNTIES THAT MAY HAVE SOME MORNING
ICE...RANGING TO AROUND 60 F FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO ENHANCE PCPN ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...
JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PROGGED ACROSS NORTHERN MOST COUNTYS FOR
PCPN TO BECOME MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW LATE. CHC POPS ALL AREAS
WITH LOWS FROM THE L30S NORTH TO L40S SOUTH.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONT TO SHOW A THIRD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY CONTINUING THE PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE AREA TUE.
DESPITE LOWERING THICKNESSES...TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. HIGHS NEAR 40 NORTH TO L50S SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION FINALLY PUSHES FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF FA TUESDAY NIGHT.
WILL SHOW DECREASING CLOUDINESS. CAA RESULTS IN TEMPS DROPPING INTO
THE 20S TO L30S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

COLD & DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WED & FRI IN THE U30S
TO U40S. THURS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN THE M30S-L40S. LOWS
20-30...SOME TEENS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH INTO ERN NC ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES. PRECIP AND IFR/MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNG HRS. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TODAY. THE NRLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
INTO THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN FOR KORF/KECG/KPHF...WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY FOR MIXED WINTER
PRECIP AT KRIC AND KSBY BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN. IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST SUN NIGHT/MON WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AT EACH OF THE
TAF SITES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY WILL VFR/DRY WEATHER BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.MARINE...
ALL SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN PUT INTO EFFECT WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE AS CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AT SCA THRESHOLDS OR WILL BE THERE
BY LATER THIS MORNG. COLD FRNT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG THE NC/VA
BORDER WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH TDY...WITH A STRONG CAA SURGE
FOLLOWING THE FROPA LEADING TO 20-25 KT NLY WINDS OVR THE WTRS
(15-20 KT OVR THE RIVERS). WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TNGT AS THE FRNT
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES FOR THE
RIVERS AT 06Z THEN THE NRN BAY AT 12Z. STILL THINK WINDS WILL STAY
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVR THE SRN BAY INTO SUN SO WILL END THE
HEADLINE THERE AT THE END OF THE THIRD PERIOD. AS FOR SEAS OVR CSTL
WTRS FOR TDY THRU SUN...EXPECT MAINLY 4-5 FT SEAS AND UP TO 6-7 FT
OVR SRN CSTL WTRS.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON WITH SEAS AROUND 4
FT. ANOTHER COLD FRNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MON NGT/TUE
MORNG...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN PSBL.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIMING OF THE EVENT...PREDICTED TIDES AND
LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BLO ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ048-049-060>064-068-069.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ065>067.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-634-650-
652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-633.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS/LSA
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

631 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

UNSTABLE REGIME OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN ALLOWING FOR
STRATOCUMULUS PERSISTENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH MANY LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING UNDER A HEALTHY STRATOCU DECK. LATEST RAP MOISTURE
PROFILES SUPPORTS TRAPPING SATURATION AND MOISTURE UNDER ACTIVE
850-500MB SUBSIDENCE. WITH A BUILDING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE AND A LOW
BACKGROUND RH SIGNAL...SUSPECT CLOUDS WILL LESSEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN BENIGN AHEAD OF
INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TOMORROW.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN DURATION OF CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS
ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

944 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE
GENERALLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWG STRATOCUMULUS ACRS A LARGE PART OF
NRN...CNTRL AND WRN PA AND PARTS OF SW NY AND NRN AND ERN NY. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ARND 280-290 DEGREES TODAY AND DIRECT LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE INTO NC NY FROM LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO SW NY FROM
LAKE ERIE. LAKE ONTARIO WATER TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ARND 8C ON
THE WRN END AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS AT -14C OR SO WE HAVE A 22C
DIFFERNTIAL WHICH IS DECENT. HOWEVER...MODELS VARY ON THE AMNT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMING ACRS THE LAKE. THE GFS IS DRIER HAVING
SFC DWPTS ARND 20F WITH THE RAP AND NAM HAVING SFC DWPTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS LEADS TO VARIATIONS IN THE SOUNDINGS AND
LES POTENTIAL. THE NAM/RAP WUD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND AND MAYBE A FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION OR MORE. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY AND WE WUD SEE MAINLY LIGHTER ACC/S. THERE ALSO WAS SOME
SHEAR BELOW THE INVERSION TOO WHICH ALSO GOES AGAINST ADVY AMNTS.
SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FCST OF 1-3 INCHES DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH THE HIGHEST AMNTS ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. WILL
KEEP FLURRIES FOR SW NY COUNTIES OF STEUBEN/YATES AND PARTS OF
CHEMUNG AND EVEN BRADFORD PA THIS PM. OTHERWISE WILL SEE PC TO MC
SKIES INTO TONIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LES CONTINUES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LIKELY CONTRACTS BACK TWD LAKE ERIE SPARING STUEBEN CO DUE TO
WEAKER WINDS. SO WILL KEEP LES GOING IN NC NY TONIGHT AND TAPER
OFF THE FLURRIES IN SW NY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE PC REST OF AREA.

PREVIOUS DSCN...
3 AM UPDATE...

STEADY PRECIPITATION HAS NOW MOVED WELL SE OF THE AREA INTO SRN
NJ. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS
MORNING ENDING BY 12Z. DRIER AIR QUICKLY COMING EAST INTO NY AND
PA AS SEEN ON THE RADAR MOSAIC. BEHIND THIS COLDER AIR ON A WNW
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. WITH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL MARGINAL AND SYNOPTIC MOISTURE GONE LES
WILL BE WEAK. MOSTLY 1 OR 2 INCHES PER 12 HOURS...DESPITE A SINGLE
BAND ALONG THE THRUWAY IN ONONDAGA...MADISON...AND ONEIDA. TODAY
THE BAND WILL HAVE A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION ON A 290 FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES TONIGHT ON WHEN THE BAND WILL SHIFT INTO JUST ONEIDA
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO 270. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE A LULL LATE EVE THEN
WITH THE BAND DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO A WEAK RESURGENCE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BAND WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER
SINKING AIR WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST TO BE OVER THE NE US
SUN AFTN.

SNOW AMOUNTS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BRIEF BURSTS COULD
PUT DOWN HALF AN INCH PER HOUR.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVER TODAY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT A LAKE
ERIE SNOW BAND TO MAKE IT INTO STEUBEN COUNTY. SHORT FETCH AND NO
CONNECTION. RADARS UPSTREAM NOT SHOWING MUCH FOR LAKE EFFECT AND
LITTLE INLAND EXTENT.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL VERY BREIFLY BEFORE A WEAK
STORM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW BUT CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN QUICKLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MODELS KEEP QPF LOW WITH
LESS THAN TWO TENTHS NORTH AND MAYBE A THIRD OF AN INCH IN THE FAR
SOUTH. AT THIS EARLY POINT...SNOWFALL WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 2
INCHES. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IN THE SOUTHERN TUG OF ONEIDA COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE COLDER AIR AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THE BIGGER PROBLEM
WILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKE THE LAST EVENT
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH AT HIGHER
ELEVEATIONS IN THE POCONOS. BY NOON MONDAY SFC TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. ALSO BY THAT TIME STEADY PRECIP WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OUT
OF THE AREA. MON AFTN INTO MON NGT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. CAA TOO COULD SET OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT
BUT FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST OF THAT NORTH OF THE CWA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...CURRENT EXTENDED IN GOOD SHAPE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS
MOST PROBABLE DUE TO WELL ALIGNED FLOW.

PREVIOUS DISC...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY COLD WESTERLY FLOW
WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNSTREAM OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. A
SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WELL-
ORGANIZED AND ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS BUT A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WILL BE RATHER QUIET FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE MVFR/LOW VFR STRATO CU TODAY
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. AT KSYR, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE
FOR MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WHEN ACTIVITY WILL
LIFT NORTH OF AREA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS. AT KRME, FLURRIES WITH
MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WHEN FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

AT KITH/KELM/KBGM/KAVP, CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4K FT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND
SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KNOTS
DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

TUE/WED...SCT MVFR MAINLY SYR/RME.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE/RRM
AVIATION...RRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

644 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A DAMP AND COOL COUPLE OF DAYS. MONDAY WILL BRIEFLY TURN
WARMER AGAIN BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON TUESDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL
BE COOLER AND DRIER.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM SATURDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM ALLIGATOR RIVER ACROSS RDU TO CLT...WILL DROP TO THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND REACH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ILM CWA BY
MID-MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND CLEAR
THE ILM CWA BY MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...VIA LATEST HRRR MODEL
SFC WIND PLOTS. LOOKING AT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD
AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT...GIVING WAY TO POST FRONTAL
PCPN IN THE FORM OF STRATIFORM LIGHT RAINS AND DRIZZLE. THE SFC
PRESSURE PATTERN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL REFLECT A COLD AIR
DAMMING EVENT WITH A NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SFC TO
700MB KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY AND THE CONTINUED THREAT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PCPN.

TODAYS MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY DECENT CAA AND A RATHER STEADY DECLINE OF
TEMPS AFTER ITS PASSAGE. THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN QUITE SHALLOW
AS EVIDENCED WITH MODEL PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESS...IE. FROM
562-567DAM THIS MORNING TO ONLY 558-562DAM BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THIS MORNING
...WILL DROP INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH THE 40S
TONIGHT WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE ILM
CWA.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS AS A COLD AIR WEDGE SUNDAY
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MONDAY...ALL OF THIS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

I HAVE MADE ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO WALK BACK VALUES FOR
MONDAY AND INCREASE VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FORCING
COUPLES WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. DIDNOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
MAKE CHANGES TO SUNDAYS VALUES AS WE CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE LOW QPF
AMOUNTS.

ONCE AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE STABLE WITH THE
CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD THE LOWER MET GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED NOW SHIFTS
TO THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY AND THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS WPC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LATE TUESDAY
ARRIVAL. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AS A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE
BITTER COLD AIRMASS NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVES ACROSS. THE END OF
THE PERIOD WILL SEE A VERY FAMILIAR FEATURE ESPECIALLY AS OF LATE
WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY FORCED COASTAL TROUGH.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...COLD FRONT MARCHING SOUTHWARD...EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. UPSTREAM
STATIONS SHOW SPORADIC IFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...TRANSITIONING IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME.
THERE IS SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ITS MORE
PARALLEL THAN PERPENDICULAR...SO MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE
FLEETING...ONLY ISOLATED RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR WEDGE STRATUS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
INTERMITTENT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM/THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM SATURDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POST FRONTAL N-NE
SURGE AND RESULTANT SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NNW TO SSE TODAY...
WHICH IS NEARLY COMPARABLE TO A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT...THE AREA WATERS
WILL BE SUBJECT TO A DECENT PUSH OF POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS FROM
THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG AND DECENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE LOOKING AT POST FRONTAL N-NE
WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS INITIALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE
MAINLY FROM THE EARLIER S-SW WIND WAVE ACTION...WILL BUILD TO A
PEAK OF 4 TO 7 FT TONIGHT. AGAIN...WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE
THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS WITH AVERAGE PERIODS AROUND 5 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...MOST OF SUNDAY WILL SEE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH INITIAL SPEEDS OF 20-25 KNOTS MOSTLY TOWARD
THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE. THE WEDGE WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL SHOW THE VARIABILITY OF THE WINDS AS A RESIDUAL
RANGE OF 3-5 FEET WILL DROP TO 2-4 FEET EARLY MONDAY INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL BE THE BIG
EVENT FOR THE EXTENDED COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. THE FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE BY
0000 UTC WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE 15-20 KNOTS. FOR WEDNESDAY THE
FLOW WILL VEER MORE TO NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE IN A 15-20 KNOT RANGE
PROBABLY EDGING CLOSER TO 15 FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS
OF 2-4 FEET.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-
256.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...HDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WAKEFIELD VA

111 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

LOWS SUN NGT REMAINING NEARLY STEADY AROUND 30 F NW...TO THE UPPER
40S NC COASTAL AREAS.

STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO ANY
WATCH...WARNING OR ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR COUNTIES COULD CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/NAM DIFFER WRT FRONTAL POSITION MONDAY. NAM IS FURTHER NORTH
WHERE BEST LIFT AND SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL BE WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
TSCTNS DO AGREE ON ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND AT LEAST A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF EVEN IN THE SOUTH.
RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALL AREAS BUT QPF-WISE THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL POSITION ALONG WITH ANY
RESIDUAL ICE ON THE GROUND WILL MAKE FOR A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS.
KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S IN COUNTIES THAT MAY HAVE SOME MORNING
ICE...RANGING TO AROUND 60 F FAR SOUTHERN AREAS.

COLD & DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS WED & FRI IN THE U30S
TO U40S. THURS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN THE M30S-L40S. LOWS
20-30...SOME TEENS POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL INTO NC AND STRONG N-NE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. MOST PRECIP HAS
DIMINISHED EXCEPT A LITTLE SCATTERED RAIN OVER NE NC. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDS OVER SBY/RIC/PHF THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...WITH
MOSTLY MVFR CONDS AT ORF AND ECG AS POST FRONTAL MVFR CLOUDS
LINGER OVER SE VA AND NE NC. A WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH THE
MID ATL REGION OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAIN AND MIXED
WINTRY PRECIP EARLY SUN MORNING INTO THE AFTN AND EVENING. TEMPS
FOR ECG/ORF/PHF ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SO THE
PRECIP SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN FOR THOSE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...CANNOT
NOT RULE OUT THE CHC FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN FOR PHF EARLY. RIC IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN BEGIN BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM SUNDAY AND THIS COULD LAST INTO
THE EARLY AFTN BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THE WX SHOULD
BEGIN 1 TO 2 HRS LATER AT SBY PSBLY BEGINNING AS MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY NE DURING THE PERIOD
WITH PSBL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS. IFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE
MORNING AND AFTN FOR MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK... IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST SUN NIGHT/MON WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN PSBLY LAST INTO TUE AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE MON WITH SEAS AROUND 4
FT. ANOTHER COLD FRNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION MON NGT/TUE
MORNG...WITH SCA CONDITIONS AGAIN PSBL.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
GIVEN THE ASTRONOMICAL TIMING OF THE EVENT...PREDICTED TIDES AND
LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN BLO ANY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/JAB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...MAS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

424 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN CONUS RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING FROM NRN
CA INTO NEVADA. AT THE SFC...WRLY WINDS PREVAILED THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN LAKES. VERY COLD AIR REMAINED
WITH MID AFTERNOON READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 5F TO 15F RANGE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. VIS SATELLITE INDICATED BACKING WINDS OVER
WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE LES BANDS BECOMING ALIGNED FROM SW-NE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT LES BANDS INTO THE KEWEENAW TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHER RES MODELS INDICATED
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONV AND LES FROM AT LEAST CMX
NORTHWARD...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER GIVEN THE SATELLITE TRENDS. SO...THE
ONGOING HEADLINES WERE RETAINED FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE LIFTED
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST. IF A DOMINANT BAND CAN REDEVELOP AND
BRUSH THE WRN SHORE OF THE KEWEENAW...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE.

WITH A PERIOD OF FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR LOWER END OF GUIDANCE WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN INTERIOR RANGING TO AROUND ZERO
OVER THE INTERIOR EAST. WINDS INTO THE 5 T0 10 MPH RANGE TIL LATE
TONIGHT CAUSED WIND CHILL READINGS TO DIP TO NEAR 25 BELOW...SO THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS RETAINED. THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT COULD CAUSE TEMPS TO LEVEL OFF A BIT OR RISE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD 12Z SUN.

SUN...ANY REMAINING LES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OF KEWEENAW
AS WINDS BACK IN THE DEVELOPING WAA PATTERN. A BROAD AREA OF
280K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW FROM MN/WI INTO
UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS IN
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF THE PCPN...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL SPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
BY 00Z/09 WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...AROUND A HALF INCH OR
LESS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

DEEP TROUGHING ORIENTED FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND WEST TO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS IS REINFORCED THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
WEEK. COLD AIRMASS MAY FINALLY MAY START TO RELAX BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL. FLOW PATTERN THIS WEEK REMAINS ACTIVE
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOWS. MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE/PV ANAMOLY CROSSING NEVADA/UTAH THIS AFTN/EVENING
HEADS OUT INTO CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY AFTN THEN LIFTS ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...RELATIVE
TERM IN THIS AIRMASS...OCCURS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA
SUNDAY EVENING WITH PVA/DEEP LAYER FORCING THROUGH REST OF NIGHT.
CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW FGEN FORCING BLO H9...MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST. MINIMAL SLANTWISE INSTABILITY/NEGATIVE EPV TO RESULT
IN HEAVIER BANDED SNOW THOUGH. ENHANCEMENT TO SYSTEM SNOW MAY OCCUR
NEAR BAY OF GREEN BAY AND LK MICHIGAN WITH ESE/E WINDS IN LOW-LEVELS
WITH TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP OF H85 AROUND -10C /LK MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPS ARE AROUND +5C/. TRICK IS HOW LONG FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION
PERSISTS AND WHETHER THERE IS TOO MUCH SHEAR IN LAKE CONVECTIVE
LAYER TO OFFSET THIS. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" OF SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH
MIXING RATIOS 1-2G/KG AND WITH 0.15-0.20 AVERAGED MODEL QPF USING
SLR/S 17-19:1. BASED ON SOUNDINGS...HIGHER SLR/S SEEMED TOUGHER TO
ACHIEVE AS BULK OF LIFT WILL BE OCCURRING AT TEMPS LESS THAN -20C.
SLR/S WILL PROBABLY BE EVEN LOWER HEADING FARTHER NORTH INTO UPR
MICHIGAN...SO SNOW AMOUNTS OF AN INCH MAYBE TWO ARE EXPECTED CLOSER
TO LK SUPERIOR SHORE. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVY FOR THE SYSTEM
SNOW. BASED ON SREF PLUMES AND FCST POPS...VALID TIME OF ADVY FAR
SCNTRL WILL START LATE SUNDAY AFTN AND GO THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
MONDAY. ADVY FOR ZONES TO THE EAST WILL START AND END A FEW HOURS
LATER.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR BY 18Z ON
MONDAY AND THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER RETURN TO THE COLD AND WINDY
WEATHER THAT OCCURRED LATE THIS LAST WEEK INTO TODAY. AND YES...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RAMP UP AGAIN IN THE AREAS
FAVORED BY WNW-W FLOW. SO...ONCE AGAIN...KEWEEENAW PENINSULA WILL BE
IN LINE FOR HEAVY LK EFFECT SNOWS. SOUNDINGS IN WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE INDICATE MOIST/UNSTABLE PROFILE TO H7 WITH SHARP CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS KEWEENAW BY MID MORNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING ON MONDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY...IF WESTERLY FLOW CAN PERSIST IN ONE AREA...LEADING TO
STRONG CONVERGENCE...FOOT PLUS AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL
HOUGHTON COUNTY... AFFECTING PAINESDALE...ATLANTIC MINE...HOUGHTON
AND HANCOCK AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CALUMET AND MOHAWK. LAKE
EFFECT HEADLINES ARE RUNNING THEIR COURSE CURRENTLY...SO DID NOT
WANT TO PUT UP ANOTHER LK EFFECT SNOW WATCH AT THIS TIME. WILL LET
MID SHIFT ASSESS THIS POTENTIAL. MAIN ISSUE AWAY FM THE INCREASING
LK EFFECT BY MONDAY AFTN WILL BE ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD TEMPS AND
LOWERING WIND CHILL READINGS.

DOES APPEAR THAT AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE/PRETTY DECENT AREA OF H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ARRIVES LATER MONDAY NIGHT...BLYR WINDS BACK SW
ENOUGH TO DISRUPT HEAVIER SNOW ON THE KEWEENAW. THIS MAY PROVIDE A
GOOD BREAK POINT FOR WHATEVER HEADLINE IS ISSUED FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
WILL JUST MAKE INTO KEWEENAW COUNTY BEFORE STALLING OUT. TOUGH TO
SAY AT THIS POINT. SOUNDINGS ELSEHWERE INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTENING
AND LIFT TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY NORTH HALF.
SNOW AMOUNTS FM THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE LGT SIDE...LESS THAN AN
INCH MAINLY. OTHER IMPACT FM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE FOR TEMPS TO TRY
TO RISE SOME LATER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WINDS INCREASE. THIS MAKES
FOR TRICKY WIND CHILL FORECAST. CURRENT FCST FOR WINDS AND TEMPS
DOES SUGGEST THAT WESTERN HALF OF CWA MAY SEE WIND CHILL CRITERIA
BE MET AT TIMES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LAST IMPACT
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH STRONGER SFC TROUGH SOUTH ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR RESULTING IN MORE OF A NW WIND IN BLYR FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT. USED LK EFFECT CLIMATOLOGY POPS TO BRING HIGHER POPS TO AREAS
FAVORED BY WNW FLOW SUCH AS ONTONAGON COUTNY AND ALSO IN THE EASTERN
CWA...MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING AND TO THE NORTH OF NEWBERRY.

IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE...COLDEST AIR OF WEEK POURS ACROSS
WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -25C TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE MORE WIND CHILL ISSUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
INLAND TEMPS FALL BLO ZERO AND WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE TROUGH.
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS OVER INLAND
WEST POSSIBLY STAYING AT OR BLO ZERO THE ENTIRE DAY. COLDEST NIGHT
OF THE WEEK LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS WINDS GO CALM MAY SEE MINS
LESS THAN 20 BLO ZERO.

SLIGHT WARMING TREND FOR LATE THIS WEEK...BUT STILL QUITE A BIT BLO
NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW LK EFFECT STAYS IN
PLACE ON KEWEENAW THURSDAY BUT THEN SHOULD REORIENT TO MORE NNW-N
FLOW AREAS ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS. MAY SEE
SOME SYSTEM SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH BUT
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES THERE STILL...SO WILL JUST HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. DID BUMP UP THE CONSENSUS POPS FOR THE LK
EFFECT AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

AT CMX...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT CMX THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE
VISIBILITY TO REMAIN AT LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR AROUND 1500FT THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST. WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW LATE
TONIGHT...EXPECT IMPROVMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BY SUN MORNING.

AT SAW AND IWD...SW TO W WINDS WILL FAVOR VFR CONDITIONS IN THE DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 416 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

EXPECT BRIEF BREAK IN STRONGER WINDS OVER LK SUPERIOR LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 25 KTS. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...EXPECT
THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND WEST GALES TO DEVELOP THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE GALES FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ003.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ SUNDAY TO 7 AM
EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ012-013.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MIZ001.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-
004-009>011-084.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
MIZ007-014-085.

LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ264>267.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ162-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1228 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.AVIATION...

//DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. MBS/FNT HAVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS STILL HOLDING ON...BUT SCATTERING OUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR
TONIGHT BUT WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. NON VFR CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP LOOK TO HOLD OFF
TIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. CURRENTLY THERE ARE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15
KNOTS BUT VERY SPORADIC/ISOLATED AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* NONE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 406 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

118 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

PREVIOUS DSCN...
3 AM UPDATE...

SNOW AMOUNTS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BRIEF BURSTS COULD
PUT DOWN HALF AN INCH PER HOUR.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MED RNG WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MODULATED BY
PASSING S/WV`S AND ASSCD SFC TROFS. MDLS SHOW ONE PASSING ON
TUE...AND ANOTHER ONE ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...MED RNG
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH GFS SHOWING RIDGING WHILE THE EURO DROPS
DOWN ANOTHER CDFNT. GIVEN THIS...WE DEFAULTED TO WPC FOR THE
LATTER PDS...BUT MODIFIED CLD/POPS FIELDS TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT
POTNL THRU MID/LATE WEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS COLD TEMPS AND PDS OF
LAKE EFECT SNOW ACRS FAR NRN ZONES...AND PSBLY SOME -SHSN ACRS
THE SRN TIER AND NRN PA DUE TO INFLUENCE OF LAKE ERIE. GFS
PROFILES SUGGEST POTNL FOR SIG LES SNOW ACCUMS ACRS THE FAR NRN
ZONES.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE E AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS FCST PD. RME WILL BE
THE MOST AFFECTED WITH IFR/MVFR THIS AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT
HRS (AND BRIEF PDS OF BLO ALT MINS)...WITH SOME IMPRVMNT AFTER 06Z AS
WRLY FLOW/SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SYR SHUD BE ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVNG...WITH OCNL MVFR
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE PA...VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH VFR ALL SITES XPCTD ON SUN.
WINDS THIS AFTN W TO NW 10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING THIS EVNG AND BCMG
L&V ON SUN MRNG.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR MIXED PCPN AND SHRA.

TUE/WED/THU...SCT MVFR SYR/RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

116 PM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

PREVIOUS DSCN...
3 AM UPDATE...

SNOW AMOUNTS WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT BRIEF BURSTS COULD
PUT DOWN HALF AN INCH PER HOUR.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MED RNG WILL BE DOMINATED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW...MODULATED BY
PASSING S/WV`S AND ASSCD SFC TROFS. MDLS SHOW ONE PASSING ON
TUE...AND ANOTHER ONE ON THURSDAY. AFTER THIS TIME...MED RNG
GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH GFS SHOWING RIDGING WHILE THE EURO DROPS
DOWN ANOTHER CDFNT. GIVEN THIS...WE DEFAULTED TO WPC FOR THE
LATTER PDS...BUT MODIFIED CLD/POPS FIELDS TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT
POTNL THRU MID/LATE WEEK. BOTTOM LINE IS COLD TEMPS AND PDS OF
LAKE EFECT SNOW ACRS FAR NRN ZONES...AND PSBLY SOME -SHSN ACRS
THE SRN TIER AND NRN PA DUE TO INFLUENCE OF LAKE ERIE. GFS
PROFILES SUGGEST POTNL FOR SIG LES SNOW ACCUMS ACRS THE FAR NRN
ZONES.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE E AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS ACRS THE BGM CWA THIS FCST PD. RME WILL BE
THE MOST AFFECTED WITH IFR/MVFR THIS AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT
HRS (AND BRIEF PDS OF BLO ALT MINS)...WITH SOME IMPRVMNT AFTER 06Z AS
WRLY FLOW.SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. SYR SHUD BE ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTN AND EVNG...WITH OCNL MVFR
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE ACRS CNTRL NY AND NE PA...VFR WILL PREVAIL
THIS AFTN INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...WITH VFR ALL SITES XPCTD ON SUN.
WINDS THIS AFTN W TO NE 10-15 KTS...DIMINISHING THIS EVNG AND BCMG
L&V ON SUN MRNG.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR MIXED PCPN AND SHRA.

TUE/WED/THU...SCT MVFR SYR/RME IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...TAC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

330 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...AS WINDS DECOUPLE WITH THE PASSING HIGH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE LATER
TONIGHT...AS THE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER BAND SHOULD SET UP NORTH TO SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS
EVENING. HRRR INDICATING THIS BAND SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...POSSIBLY TRACKING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR THE LAKE IN THE 09Z TO 12Z SUNDAY PERIOD.
ADDED POPS IN THIS AREA FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH A WEAK BUT DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS. THE SFC LOW WILL
BECOME CLOSED OFF AT 1015 MB NEAR OR EAST OF KMKE BY 06Z MON AND
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND INTO CANADA ON MON. A LARGE SCALE AND FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW TO
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON SUN WITH SNOW INTENSIFYING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SW.

A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS ON QPF YIELDS QPF TOTALS OF 0.15-0.22.
THE DEPTH OF THE DENDRITE ZONE VARIES ON MODELS BUT HAS TRENDED
LESS DEEP FROM YESTERDAY. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS
OF SNOW RATIOS CLOSE TO 20 TO 1 VERSUS SOMETHING HIGHER. THIS
YIELDS 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 2-3 NEAR THE IL BORDER.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT NWD TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
QPF...SO LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE IL BORDER IS REASONABLE. LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS THEN NEED TO BE ADDED IN FOR OZAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE 1000-850 MB SELY FLOW AND LAKE TO 850 MB TEMP
DIFFERENCES OF 14-17C. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHARTS SUGGESTS ADDING
AT LEAST 3 INCHES SO FORECASTING 4-7 INCHES OF SNOW IN SHEBOYGAN
AND NRN OZAUKEE COUNTIES. IF GREATER LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IS EXPECTED
A WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. A WINTER WX ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CWA FOR THIS SNOW EVENT.

BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL ON MON WITH
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS RETURNING AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SUN. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH COMBINED WITH A POWDERY SNOW PACK SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR TRAVEL. A SHORTWAVE SFC RIDGE WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN WI MON NT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ARCTIC AIR
MAKING FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT. SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD
MORNING AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER FROM IT ON TUE
WITH THE SNOW REMAINING OVER NRN WI. DESPITE SWLY WINDS...HIGH
TEMPS TO ONLY REACH INTO THE TEENS. THE BRISK WINDS HOWEVER WILL
MAINTAIN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FOR MON-TUE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

A COUPLE WEAK CLIPPERS WILL BRING ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW
OR FLURRIES FOR TUE NT INTO POSSIBLY WED AND AGAIN FOR THU. ARCTIC
AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO THU NT. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE NRN PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WARM
ADVECTION BRINGING MODERATING TEMPS AND CHANCES OF LGT SNOW.

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS TAF SITES. WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA BY LATER TONIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO KENOSHA AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY...AND MILWAUKEE/WAUKESHA BY 15Z SUNDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THE BAND WILL LINGER FOR A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD
THEREAFTER...WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3
MILES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY.

THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WILL REACH MADISON BY 15Z SUNDAY...AND
THE EASTERN SITES BY 18Z SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL BECOME ALL LIGHT
BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z MONDAY WEST TO EAST ACROSS TAF SITES...THEN
ENDING BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z MONDAY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
VEER SOUTHWEST BY 06Z MONDAY...AND WEST BY 12Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SOME 1/2 MILE VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OF THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY VARIETY. SNOWFALL
RATES OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RATES POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...HIGHEST AT MADISON/MILWAUKEE AND LOWEST AT KENOSHA.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING