Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/15/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY ACROSS COLORADO WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NEAREST
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING. SURFACE
LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NORTHERN UTAH
AND WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...THEN ACROSS WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT AND MID LEVEL ASCENT TO BE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. SHOULD SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS IN AREA OF BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. MAY SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS THE MID
LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES. ACROSS PLAINS...LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DECREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALONG FOOTHILLS.
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. LATEST MODELS...
INCLUDING THE RAP...HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST
COMPONENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT IS IN PLACE.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH THE
LATEST RAP HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DENVER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ON THURSDAY...DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO
NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING
MOISTURE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH IMPROVING
OROGRAPHICS...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LACK OF ASCENT...ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE MORNING. ACROSS THE PLAINS...ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING WITH DECREASING LIFT...MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE. SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED WITH AN LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD ENERGY
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK
DOWNWARD MOTION FOLLOWS...THEN UPWARD ENERGY MOVES BACK IN BY 18Z
SATURDAY. THE UPWARD MOTION IS FAIRLY STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS SHOW TROUGHING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES TO
SOUTHWESTERLIES DOMINATE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
PREVAILS. FOR THE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
VARIOUS MODELS SET UP THE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND NO REAL UPSLOPE FROM ANY
OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW DECENT DRY
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF
OF THE PLAINS. NOT GOOD FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS NOT MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON ANY OF
THE MODELS...DEFINITELY LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
MOISTURE INCREASES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE STAYS FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS INCREASES OVER THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS IS POOR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE
QPF FIELDS BRING IN A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO A TINY BIT OUT
ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
OROGRAPHIC-WISE...THE MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW IS MAINLY SOUTHWEST FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS. SO WILL GO WITH MAINLY "CHANCES" IN THE HIGH
THERE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 12Z. WILL GO
WITH "SLIGHT CHANCES"S OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW THIS STORM TO HAVE DECREASED IN SIGNIFICANCE...
ALTHOUGH YOU CAN`T DISCOUNT THE UPWARD Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE
MOISTURE IS POOR OUT ON THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S
HIGHS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. SATURDAY`S ARE A BIT
COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S...BUT NOT MUCH. THE COLD AIR WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DOESN`T COME IN UNTIL SUNDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE
CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE A CHANGE FROM THREE DAYS
AGO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER SYNC WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES
OF THE STORM. THEY BOTH ALSO DRY THINGS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY...SO WILL ADJUST SOMEWHAT IN ENDING THINGS QUICKER. THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS UNTIL WE SEE THE STORM. THE COLD
AIR ON SUNDAY IS NOT SIGNIFICANT EITHER. UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KTS AT KBJC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT KBJC
DURING THE EVENING THOUGH WILL REMAIN WESTERLY WHILE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 10Z...THEN NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CEILINGS LOWERING TO
AROUND 9000 FEET AGL. AT THIS TIME...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ALONG THE NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
CLOUDS TO DECREASE AFTER 16Z WITH DECREASING WINDS...BECOMING
EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1126 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BUCKLE THE UPPER FLOW PUTTING IOWA IN A ZONAL FLOW.
THE COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
MEANS WARMING TEMPS FOR CENTRAL IOWA. THE CAVEATS TO THIS IS THAT
THE NAM MODEL HAS A RIDICULOUS AND ERRONEOUS CALCULATION OF NEARLY
TWO INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH OVER CENTRAL IOWA THUS KEEPING TEMPS WAY
TOO COOL AND MESSING WITH WIND FIELDS AS WELL.
THE RAP AND GFS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SNOW FIELDS. SOUNDINGS ARE
DRY SO IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY TODAY. THERE IS A STRONG NOSE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT AND AN EQUALLY STRONG INVERSION SO WE WILL NOT
REALIZE THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH WE COULD HAVE BUT EVEN IF WE ONLY MIX
TO 925 MB WE WILL TAP SOME OF THE WARMER AIR. NEXT IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SATELLITE PIX STILL SHOW A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA FROM ALGONA TO JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO AND NORTH OF THAT LINE.
ANOTHER STRIPE OF SNOW FROM AUDUBON TO KNOXVILLE TO OTTUMWA WAS
EVIDENT SO WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR A WARM
UP...HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER
THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A TOKEN WINDOW FOR PRECIP THU...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS. ATTENTION TURNS
TO CURRENT WA/BC SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD REACH THE MO VALLEY EARLY
THU. SOMEWHAT DEEP WEAK AND BRIEFLY MODERATE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THU BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR
SATURATION IS ABOVE 3KM AND EVEN THAT IS SUSPECT. EXAMINATION OF
295-305K ISENT LAYERS SHOW JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SOME VIRGA.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR UNDERNEATH WILL DIMINISH MEASURABLE POTENTIAL
HOWEVER SO HAVE OPTED FOR A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES WORDING...MAINLY
NE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK INTO FRIDAY PATTERN SHIFT WILL DEVELOP WITH
PRONOUNCED WRN CONUS TROUGH...INITIALLY HELPED BY CURRENT GULF OF AK
SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE FRI
AND EVENTUALLY IA SAT. THIS WILL INTRODUCE POPS AS EARLY AS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY WITH KINEMATIC FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG SURGE
OF THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED
AS OF YET...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AS K INDICES ELEVATE AND MUCAPES REACH A FEW HUNDRED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH THEN ADVANCES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FROM ECMWF...GFS TO GEM WITH SURFACE LOW
BRUSHING SE IA FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT HOWEVER AS RUN TO RUN CHANGES
CONTINUE TO BE FASTER WITH NO APPARENT TIMING CONSENSUS DEVELOPING
AS OF YET. PRECIP TYPE IS OBVIOUSLY A BIG CONCERN AND THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BUT THE MAIN TREND IS
TOWARD MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. GFS FORCING SURGE COINCIDES WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND MORE RAIN...WHILE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS NW HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON
THE TRAILING END OF DEFORMATION ZONE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN A TIME LAGGED MODEL CONSENSUS...A BLEND
OF CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RUN TO REDUCE FORECAST CHANGES. THIS
SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT HAS RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY MON. LOW END POPS STILL LINGER
INTO THE DAY MON...BUT CONSIDERING FASTER TIMING TRENDS THESE MAY
NEED TO BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED LATER TODAY.
A FEW THINGS TO MENTION REGARDING TEMPS. 00Z NAM SNOW DEPTH
INITIALIZATION WAS HORRIBLE AS IT CURRENTLY DEPICTS 1-2 INCHES FROM
I80 TO MN BORDER AND ONLY DROPS IT TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY THU.
DOES NOT REALLY GET RID OF IT UNTIL FRI NIGHT. LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LINGERING NARROW BAND OF SNOW N OF
ADAIR-INDIANOLA-FAIRFIELD NEARLY GONE...AND ONLY NRN IA SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF SPIRIT LAKE-WAVERLY LINE. FEEL THESE EFFECTS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED BY THU AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. MARKED
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S AND ABOVE
50 CENTRAL AND SE. MON LOOKS SHARPLY COLDER WITH 20F PLUS TEMP
DROP AND BRISK NW WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO RECENT COOL LEVELS
BY MON NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...13/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. ON
THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING SOME CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CIGS AT KFOD/KMCW AFTER 14Z OR
SO.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
547 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BUCKLE THE UPPER FLOW PUTTING IOWA IN A ZONAL FLOW.
THE COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
MEANS WARMING TEMPS FOR CENTRAL IOWA. THE CAVEATS TO THIS IS THAT
THE NAM MODEL HAS A RIDICULOUS AND ERRONEOUS CALCULATION OF NEARLY
TWO INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH OVER CENTRAL IOWA THUS KEEPING TEMPS WAY
TOO COOL AND MESSING WITH WIND FIELDS AS WELL.
THE RAP AND GFS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SNOW FIELDS. SOUNDINGS ARE
DRY SO IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY TODAY. THERE IS A STRONG NOSE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT AND AN EQUALLY STRONG INVERSION SO WE WILL NOT
REALIZE THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH WE COULD HAVE BUT EVEN IF WE ONLY MIX
TO 925 MB WE WILL TAP SOME OF THE WARMER AIR. NEXT IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SATELLITE PIX STILL SHOW A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA FROM ALGONA TO JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO AND NORTH OF THAT LINE.
ANOTHER STRIPE OF SNOW FROM AUDUBON TO KNOXVILLE TO OTTUMWA WAS
EVIDENT SO WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR A WARM
UP...HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER
THAN SURROUNDING AREAS. I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A TOKEN WINDOW FOR PRECIP THU...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS. ATTENTION TURNS
TO CURRENT WA/BC SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD REACH THE MO VALLEY EARLY
THU. SOMEWHAT DEEP WEAK AND BRIEFLY MODERATE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THU BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR
SATURATION IS ABOVE 3KM AND EVEN THAT IS SUSPECT. EXAMINATION OF
295-305K ISENT LAYERS SHOW JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SOME VIRGA.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR UNDERNEATH WILL DIMINISH MEASURABLE POTENTIAL
HOWEVER SO HAVE OPTED FOR A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES WORDING...MAINLY
NE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK INTO FRIDAY PATTERN SHIFT WILL DEVELOP WITH
PRONOUNCED WRN CONUS TROUGH...INITIALLY HELPED BY CURRENT GULF OF AK
SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE FRI
AND EVENTUALLY IA SAT. THIS WILL INTRODUCE POPS AS EARLY AS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY WITH KINEMATIC FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG SURGE
OF THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED
AS OF YET...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AS K INDICES ELEVATE AND MUCAPES REACH A FEW HUNDRED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH THEN ADVANCES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FROM ECMWF...GFS TO GEM WITH SURFACE LOW
BRUSHING SE IA FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT HOWEVER AS RUN TO RUN CHANGES
CONTINUE TO BE FASTER WITH NO APPARENT TIMING CONSENSUS DEVELOPING
AS OF YET. PRECIP TYPE IS OBVIOUSLY A BIG CONCERN AND THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BUT THE MAIN TREND IS
TOWARD MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. GFS FORCING SURGE COINCIDES WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND MORE RAIN...WHILE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS NW HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON
THE TRAILING END OF DEFORMATION ZONE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN A TIME LAGGED MODEL CONSENSUS...A BLEND
OF CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RUN TO REDUCE FORECAST CHANGES. THIS
SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT HAS RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY MON. LOW END POPS STILL LINGER
INTO THE DAY MON...BUT CONSIDERING FASTER TIMING TRENDS THESE MAY
NEED TO BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED LATER TODAY.
A FEW THINGS TO MENTION REGARDING TEMPS. 00Z NAM SNOW DEPTH
INITIALIZATION WAS HORRIBLE AS IT CURRENTLY DEPICTS 1-2 INCHES FROM
I80 TO MN BORDER AND ONLY DROPS IT TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY THU.
DOES NOT REALLY GET RID OF IT UNTIL FRI NIGHT. LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LINGERING NARROW BAND OF SNOW N OF
ADAIR-INDIANOLA-FAIRFIELD NEARLY GONE...AND ONLY NRN IA SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF SPIRIT LAKE-WAVERLY LINE. FEEL THESE EFFECTS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED BY THU AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. MARKED
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S AND ABOVE
50 CENTRAL AND SE. MON LOOKS SHARPLY COLDER WITH 20F PLUS TEMP
DROP AND BRISK NW WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO RECENT COOL LEVELS
BY MON NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...13/12Z
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS A PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES
INTO THE STATE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15G30KT WILL BE COMMON AFT 13/16Z
THROUGH 14/00Z. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFT
14/06Z AND INCREASE CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS INDICATE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULD AFFECT NORTHERN TAFS AND HAVE PUT A PERIOD OF THAT
INTO THE TAFS MAINLY AFT 08Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
333 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. ALOFT THE FLOW WILL BECOME
WESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BUCKLE THE UPPER FLOW PUTTING IOWA IN A ZONAL FLOW.
THE COMBINATION OF RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
MEANS WARMING TEMPS FOR CENTRAL IOWA. THE CAVEATS TO THIS IS THAT
THE NAM MODEL HAS A RIDICULOUS AND ERRONEOUS CALCULATION OF NEARLY
TWO INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH OVER CENTRAL IOWA THUS KEEPING TEMPS WAY
TOO COOL AND MESSING WITH WIND FIELDS AS WELL.
THE RAP AND GFS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SNOW FIELDS. SOUNDINGS ARE
DRY SO IT SHOULD BE A SUNNY DAY TODAY. THERE IS A STRONG NOSE OF
WARM AIR ALOFT AND AN EQUALLY STRONG INVERSION SO WE WILL NOT
REALIZE THE AMOUNT OF WARMTH WE COULD HAVE BUT EVEN IF WE ONLY MIX
TO 925 MB WE WILL TAP SOME OF THE WARMER AIR. NEXT IS SNOW ON THE
GROUND. SATELLITE PIX STILL SHOW A SWATH OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA FROM ALGONA TO JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO AND NORTH OF THAT LINE.
ANOTHER STRIPE OF SNOW FROM AUDUBON TO KNOXVILLE TO OTTUMWA WAS
EVIDENT SO WHILE THIS WILL NOT BE A SHOW STOPPER FOR A WARM
UP...HIGHS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER
THAN SURROUNDING AREA. I HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS ACCORDINGLY IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A TOKEN WINDOW FOR PRECIP THU...THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS. ATTENTION TURNS
TO CURRENT WA/BC SHORT WAVE WHICH SHOULD REACH THE MO VALLEY EARLY
THU. SOMEWHAT DEEP WEAK AND BRIEFLY MODERATE FORCING MOVES
THROUGH THU BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR
SATURATION IS ABOVE 3KM AND EVEN THAT IS SUSPECT. EXAMINATION OF
295-305K ISENT LAYERS SHOW JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SOME VIRGA.
PLENTY OF DRY AIR UNDERNEATH WILL DIMINISH MEASURABLE POTENTIAL
HOWEVER SO HAVE OPTED FOR A PERIOD OF SPRINKLES WORDING...MAINLY
NE.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK INTO FRIDAY PATTERN SHIFT WILL DEVELOP WITH
PRONOUNCED WRN CONUS TROUGH...INITIALLY HELPED BY CURRENT GULF OF AK
SHORT WAVE. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE FRI
AND EVENTUALLY IA SAT. THIS WILL INTRODUCE POPS AS EARLY AS AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY WITH KINEMATIC FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG SURGE
OF THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH NOT INCLUDED
AS OF YET...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AS K INDICES ELEVATE AND MUCAPES REACH A FEW HUNDRED.
LONG WAVE TROUGH THEN ADVANCES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
SIGNIFICANT QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION
REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR FROM ECMWF...GFS TO GEM WITH SURFACE LOW
BRUSHING SE IA FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. TIMING IS STILL SUSPECT HOWEVER AS RUN TO RUN CHANGES
CONTINUE TO BE FASTER WITH NO APPARENT TIMING CONSENSUS DEVELOPING
AS OF YET. PRECIP TYPE IS OBVIOUSLY A BIG CONCERN AND THESE TIMING
DIFFERENCES RESULT IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS BUT THE MAIN TREND IS
TOWARD MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. GFS FORCING SURGE COINCIDES WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPS AND MORE RAIN...WHILE SLOWER ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST ONLY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS NW HALF OF FORECAST AREA ON
THE TRAILING END OF DEFORMATION ZONE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE HAS RESULTED IN A TIME LAGGED MODEL CONSENSUS...A BLEND
OF CURRENT AND PREVIOUS RUN TO REDUCE FORECAST CHANGES. THIS
SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULT HAS RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...WITH
A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY MON. LOW END POPS STILL LINGER
INTO THE DAY MON...BUT CONSIDERING FASTER TIMING TRENDS THESE MAY
NEED TO BE REDUCED OR ELIMINATED LATER TODAY.
A FEW THINGS TO MENTION REGARDING TEMPS. 00Z NAM SNOW DEPTH
INITIALIZATION WAS HORRIBLE AS IT CURRENTLY DEPICTS 1-2 INCHES FROM
I80 TO MN BORDER AND ONLY DROPS IT TO AROUND A HALF INCH BY THU.
DOES NOT REALLY GET RID OF IT UNTIL FRI NIGHT. LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LINGERING NARROW BAND OF SNOW N OF
ADAIR-INDIANOLA-FAIRFIELD NEARLY GONE...AND ONLY NRN IA SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF SPIRIT LAKE-WAVERLY LINE. FEEL THESE EFFECTS SHOULD BE
MINIMIZED BY THU AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN TEMPS THIS PERIOD. MARKED
DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS WILL BE NOTED BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 40S AND ABOVE
50 CENTRAL AND SE. MON LOOKS SHARPLY COLDER WITH 20F PLUS TEMP
DROP AND BRISK NW WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO RECENT COOL LEVELS
BY MON NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...13/06Z
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
843 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LIGHT WINDS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WERE APPROACHING FORECAST
MINS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AND HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL. SO LOWERED THE MINS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION AND ADJUSTED THE WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING EAST OVER OUR CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WITH DRY LAYER AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE RFW CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA WAA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK
TO OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING LOW
TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN HOW LOW I
WENT...BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AT
LEAST IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE RFW CRITERIA MET AT LEAST ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT
OF OUR CWA. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MEETING
CRITERIA. IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL GET A FULL 3HR OF RFW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO I DECIDED TO START WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
INTI AL CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
AROUND THE BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS AND WITH LATEST SREF AND GEFS DATA BACKING OFF OF POP
VALUES...THINK LOWERING POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE
FORCING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH DRY PROFILES AND
AFOREMENTIONED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS...DO NOT THINK REALIZATION
OF INSTABILITY IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGH SAGS TO
THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AM NOT
EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-THURSDAY)...BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING EXPECTED BEFORE A ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH LEADING TO PREDOMINATELY WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET...BUT
CONTINUED WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 KNOT TO 35 KNOT RANGE WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED AT KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
443 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING EAST OVER OUR CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WITH DRY LAYER AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE RFW CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA WAA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK
TO OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING LOW
TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN HOW LOW I
WENT...BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AT
LEAST IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE RFW CRITERIA MET AT LEAST ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT
OF OUR CWA. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MEETING
CRITERIA. IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL GET A FULL 3HR OF RFW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO I DECIDED TO START WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
INTI AL CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
AROUND THE BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS AND WITH LATEST SREF AND GEFS DATA BACKING OFF OF POP
VALUES...THINK LOWERING POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE
FORCING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH DRY PROFILES AND
AFOREMENTIONED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS...DO NOT THINK REALIZATION
OF INSTABILITY IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGH SAGS TO
THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AM NOT
EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-THURSDAY)...BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING EXPECTED BEFORE A ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH LEADING TO PREDOMINATELY WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET...BUT
CONTINUED WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT. DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY WILL INCREASE TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 KNOT TO 35 KNOT RANGE WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED AT KGLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
500 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2013
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Little in the way of significant forecast problems for tonight and
Thursday. Sig pressure gradient between high over the southern
Mississippi valley and low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies has lead to gusty southerly winds today. These winds
will diminish late afternoon and early evening but maintain about 10
kts overnight...keeping temperatures from falling below the upper
20s to lower 30s.
Water vapor loop overlaid with RAP analysis and national radar show
precipitation associated with low amplitude shortwave trough
crossing the northern Rockies. This trough is forecast by all
models to move east across the northern U.S., approaching the
western Great Lakes by Thursday evening. Greatest forcing aloft and
any chance of measurable precipitation with this system is forecast
to stay well north of Kansas. Trailing surface low pressure trough
along with thicker mid and high level clouds should move into north
central and northeast Kansas Thursday afternoon. Thus...afternoon
winds on Thursday should not be as strong as those occurring today.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Focus of the longer term remains on the evolution of the storm
system into the weekend. Sfc low development will occur Friday
night into Saturday across western KS/NE as the first of two main
waves move through the longwave trough and into the plains. WAA
and lift should aid in the development of showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms later Friday night and into Saturday. Low
level winds veer in wake of the initial wave later Saturday
Saturday night so precip chcs appear sct at best during Sat night.
The second and main shortwave will emerge by Sunday along with the
associated sfc low. The low will track into Wisconsin later Sunday
with the cold front forecast to sweep through the area during the day.
The second upper wave remains progressive so don`t expect much in
the way of additional precip Sunday into Sunday night although CAA
along with shallow lift could result in light rain showers/drizzle
or some snow flurries later Sunday night.
All in all the ECMWF has trended less amplified with the pattern
into next week and as a result is not as cold while GFS remains
colder. In any case, it appears colder than avg for early next
week then moderating with dry/quiet weather after Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Limited moisture should allow for dry weather with VFR conditions
in spite of a weak upper level wave moving overhead late tonight
and Thursday. A surface trough axis is expected to remain west of
MHK so the forecast does not anticipate a wind shift prior to 00Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGES AND TOUGHS FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTHERN
TEXAS...HOWEVER THERE IS LARGE SCALE DRY AIR MASS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. A MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS IN PACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IDAHO. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE WEST VERY
LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE WITH -4F TO 5F TD VALUES
REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
LUCKILY WITH GRADIENT WELL EAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT AND RFW CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET.
THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE NW US WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KICKING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 30S) DESPITE DECENT CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MID TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC INCREASES AND
DECREASES IN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGHS ACCOMPANY A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND EMERGES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS 8-12KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE AROUND 3-6KT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE 06-09Z
TIME PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
315 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Little in the way of significant forecast problems for tonight and
Thursday. Sig pressure gradient between high over the southern
Mississippi valley and low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies has lead to gusty southerly winds today. These winds
will diminish late afternoon and early evening but maintain about 10
kts overnight...keeping temperatures from falling below the upper
20s to lower 30s.
Water vapor loop overlaid with RAP analysis and national radar show
precipitation associated with low amplitude shortwave trough
crossing the northern Rockies. This trough is forecast by all
models to move east across the northern U.S., approaching the
western Great Lakes by Thursday evening. Greatest forcing aloft and
any chance of measurable precipitation with this system is forecast
to stay well north of Kansas. Trailing surface low pressure trough
along with thicker mid and high level clouds should move into north
central and northeast Kansas Thursday afternoon. Thus...afternoon
winds on Thursday should not be as strong as those occurring today.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Focus of the longer term remains on the evolution of the storm
system into the weekend. Sfc low development will occur Friday
night into Saturday across western KS/NE as the first of two main
waves move through the longwave trough and into the plains. WAA
and lift should aid in the development of showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms later Friday night and into Saturday. Low
level winds veer in wake of the initial wave later Saturday
Saturday night so precip chcs appear sct at best during Sat night.
The second and main shortwave will emerge by Sunday along with the
associated sfc low. The low will track into Wisconsin later Sunday
with the cold front fcst to sweep through the area during the day.
The second upper wave remains progressive so don`t expect much in
the way of additional precip Sunday into Sunday night although CAA
along with shallow lift could result in light rain showers/drizzle
or some snow flurries later Sunday night.
All in all the ECMWF has trended less amplified with the pattern
into next week and as a result is not as cold while GFS remains
colder. In any case, it appears colder than avg for early next
week then moderating with dry/quiet weather after Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Noon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR conditions will continue forecast. Southerly winds will gust
to 24 to 28 kts this afternoon and then die down late
afternoon/evening. Some concern about potential for low-level wind
shear tonight as southwest winds of about 45 kts are forecast at
about 2000 ft AGL with southerly surface winds around 10 to 12
kts. Cirrus will increase Thursday morning.
GDP
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Omitt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1228 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGES AND TOUGHS FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTHERN
TEXAS...HOWEVER THERE IS LARGE SCALE DRY AIR MASS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. A MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS IN PACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IDAHO. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE WEST VERY
LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE WITH -4F TO 5F TD VALUES
REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
LUCKILY WITH GRADIENT WELL EAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT AND RFW CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET.
THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE NW US WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KICKING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 30S) DESPITE DECENT CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MST TUE NOV 12 2013
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...ALL
MODELS NOW SHOWING AN OPEN WAVE WHICH WILL KEEP QPF/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW
ON MONDAY THEN SLOW MODERATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY REBUILDS FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS 8-12KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TAF
PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH.
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING
VARIABLE AROUND 3-6KT. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE 06-09Z
TIME PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
932 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUICK ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EDGE OF THIN CIRRUS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALREADY THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO. OPTED TO
NOT ADJUST UP MIN TEMPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AS WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY MORE THAN EXPECTED AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST LOCATIONS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER BY A DEGREE OR TWO...WITH INCREASED MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
LOOKS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS EXPECT
ONLY SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND ALLOW A STRONG WARMING
TREND TO BEGIN IN EARNEST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY SUNDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
INTO OHIO LATE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL MOS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON FORECAST WARMTH AND INCREASING DEW POINTS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND USED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STG CDFNT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE RGN SUN NGT INTO ERLY MON
BRINGING A ROUND OF GUSTY SHWRS. PREFERRED THE SLOWER MDL SOLNS FOR
FROPA AND SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR ADVCTN. AN UPR TROF IS EXPD FOR MON
CONTG SHWR CHCS. NW FLOW BRINGS ENOUGH COLD AIR IN FOR PSBL SNW
SHWRS MON NGT INTO TUE...THEN HIGH PRES BLDS BACK IN FOR MD-LT WK
WITH TEMPS REMAINING BLO SEASONAL AVGS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WL PREVAIL VFR CONDS WITH A GRDL INCR IN CI ON FRI. MARGINAL
LLVL WND SHEAR IS EXPD THRU ARND 10Z AS 30-40KT SW WNDS PICK UP FM
1500-2000 FT. WNDS OVR MGW EXPD TO BE LESS SO NO MENTION OF WND
SHEAR THERE.
.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPD UNTIL THE APCH/PASSAGE OF A LT SUN/MON CDFNT. RSTRNS WL
REMAIN PSBL AFT FROPA THRU TUE AS AN UPR TROF MOVES ACRS THE GT
LKS RGN IN NW FLOW.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1234 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM AZ/UT TO SASK AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WINDS WERE BACKING WRLY OVER UPPER MI AS THE LARGE HIGH PRES
SETTLES THROUGH ERN KS. LES INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA
WAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND VERY DRY
AIR WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME OFFSHORE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
TEENS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID HIGH CLOUDS
SUPPORTED BY WAA WITH 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS
UPPER MI AND INCREASING SW WINDS WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WED...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HIGH
SINKING INTO THE SRN CONUS AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY.
HOWVER...STRONG 925-850 MB WAA WILL INCREASE STABILITY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SFC WIND GUSTS. NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS
COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
STABILITY AND INCREASING STRONG/LOW INVERSION HEIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EVEN AS 925/850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 8C-10C RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE (DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB)
AND FORCING STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (AND PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE)...THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT
WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TRACK BEING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THAT AREA. THERE AREA ALSO DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE KEWEENAW ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL HAVING CHANCE POPS
IS REASONABLE. HAVE KEPT P-TYPE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THAT
PERIOD...FIRST DUE TO THE WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN DUE TO QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND ICE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 40 DURING THAT PERIOD AND LOWS AROUND 30.
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA WILL AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET OVER THE
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION
WILL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE AT THIS POINT FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR TUESDAY
(AROUND -15C AT 850MB) WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST WIND BELTS AND DID TREND POPS UP SOME FOR THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013
WITH DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KCMX NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AS A SFC
TROF DROPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ABOVE SFC BASED INVERSION...RESULTING IN LLWS
AT KIWD AND KSAW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX.
GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30KT ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH IN ONTARIO. WINDS NEAR GALE STRENGTH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ242>245-265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EST /7 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1148 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM AZ/UT TO SASK AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WINDS WERE BACKING WRLY OVER UPPER MI AS THE LARGE HIGH PRES
SETTLES THROUGH ERN KS. LES INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA
WAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND VERY DRY
AIR WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME OFFSHORE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
TEENS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID HIGH CLOUDS
SUPPORTED BY WAA WITH 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS
UPPER MI AND INCREASING SW WINDS WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WED...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HIGH
SINKING INTO THE SRN CONUS AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY.
HOWVER...STRONG 925-850 MB WAA WILL INCREASE STABILITY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SFC WIND GUSTS. NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS
COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
STABILITY AND INCREASING STRONG/LOW INVERSION HEIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EVEN AS 925/850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 8C-10C RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE (DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB)
AND FORCING STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (AND PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE)...THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT
WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TRACK BEING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THAT AREA. THERE AREA ALSO DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE KEWEENAW ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL HAVING CHANCE POPS
IS REASONABLE. HAVE KEPT P-TYPE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THAT
PERIOD...FIRST DUE TO THE WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN DUE TO QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND ICE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 40 DURING THAT PERIOD AND LOWS AROUND 30.
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA WILL AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET OVER THE
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION
WILL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE AT THIS POINT FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR TUESDAY
(AROUND -15C AT 850MB) WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST WIND BELTS AND DID TREND POPS UP SOME FOR THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
WITH DRY AIR MASS DOMINATING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME LOW CLOUDS/MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KCMX NEAR THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD AS A SFC
TROF DROPS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. UNDER TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ABOVE SFC BASED INVERSION...RESULTING IN LLWS
AT KIWD AND KSAW OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX.
GUSTY WINDS TO 25-30KT ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH IN ONTARIO. WINDS NEAR GALE STRENGTH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ242>245-
265>267.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO 8 PM EST /7 PM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
550 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM WILL BE PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE NORTH.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS FORECAST
AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND INT HE ARROWHEAD.
THE PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. THERE WILL A BREAK THIS EVENING BEFORE ANTHER SHORT WAVE
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TONIGHT WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
ON FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE EAST
APPROACHING THE AREA. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS INDICATE THE PRECIP
SHOULD NOT REACH THE WESTERN AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY EVENING BY THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
END WEST TO EAST ACROSS MN/WI SATURDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE A BREAK LATE SATURDAY EVENING
BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ON SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL
SEE MOST OF THE RAIN IN SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED PRECIP EXPECTED IN
NE MN. AS THE SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES EAST OF WI SUNDAY...COLDER
AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CHANGE TO A RW-/SW- MIXTURE IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHWEST. BY SUNDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE ALL SNOW IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A MIXTURE IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND NW WI. THE
MIXTURE WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RIGHT NOW...IT WILL
BE A RACE BETWEEN THE BETTER MOISTURE AND THE COLD AIR. IF THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES AFTER THE BEST MOISTURE LEAVES...AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. SO HAVE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY USHERING IN COLDER AND
DRIER AIR/
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE CEILINGS
MAY ALSO BRIEFLY IMPACT KBRD/KDLH...BUT THE RAP DOES SHOW BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH. SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...AND OBSERVATIONS/RADAR SHOW THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH 06Z. SOME FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE LOWEST.
THE MVFR CEILINGS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 30 42 36 43 / 20 10 20 70
INL 27 39 34 40 / 30 10 20 40
BRD 29 45 36 43 / 10 10 20 50
HYR 29 45 36 47 / 10 10 10 90
ASX 31 45 36 48 / 10 10 10 90
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAP/STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING/STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
935 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
The warming trend will continue with warmer lows tgt than
Wednesday ngt due to continued sly sfc winds and swly low
level/boundry layer winds, mid-high level cloudiness, and slightly
higher sfc dew points compared to the previous ngt. There was a
few weak radar echoes moving into swrn MO this evng associated
with weak low-mid level waa ahead of a shortwave moving ewd
through the srn Plains. Could not rule out sprinkles from mid
level clouds towards mrng in portions of cntrl and sern MO,
although the lower level below 700 mb should remain quite dry
through 12z Friday.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A dry air mass with low dew points will promote efficient cooling
tonight, however WAA and mid/high clouds will temper the drop-off and
keep overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A weak disturbance was located over central NM around 21z per water
vapor imagery and recent RAP 1.5 PVU analyses. This feature will
quickly swing through TX tonight before reaching AR and MS tomorrow.
Although the air mass over MO/IL remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles
or light rain showers are possible over the eastern Ozarks on Fri
morning before this vort max lifts away from the area.
Look for a continued warming trend through the weekend due to
persistent southwest surface flow along with warming temperatures
aloft. Highs will probably reach the mid to upper 70s on Sun despite
substantial cloud cover and periods of precipitation. High
temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s early next week
after a strong cold front moves across the region on Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will increase on Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the surface high over the southeast US and the
developing low pressure system over the plains. Expect breezy
conditions through Sun with the highest wind speeds and gusts on
Sat.
Two low pressure systems are expected to affect our area this
weekend. The first vort max was located near the WA coast around 18z
this afternoon and is forecast to reach KS by Sat. The LLJ induced
by this feature will interact with a lifting warm front to produce
an area of rain on late Fri night and Sat morning. PW values are
forecast to rise to around 1.2" by Sat, which is around +2 SD for
November, so plenty of moisture will be available. There will
probably be a break in the rain sometime on Sat aftn between
systems. A stronger vort max is forecast to cross the Rockies and
induce surface cyclogenesis along the pre-existing baroclinic zone
over OK/KS on Sat night. Instability and lift ahead of this system
should support an area of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
The attendant cold front then moves through the CWA on Sun aftn/eve
as the system lifts towards the Great Lakes and begins to occlude.
With substantial shear in place along with at least some
instability, there is a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sun
ahead of the advancing cold front. Although there are some timing
differences between models, most of the latest model runs bring the
cold front through the LSX CWA before 00z Mon. Such timing would
limit the severe weather threat across our area to the far eastern
CWA at most. If future model runs support a slower fropa, then there
may be more of a concern for severe thunderstorms.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Dry, VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period,
accompanied by increasing high and mid-level cloud cover from the
southwest. Wind gusts have died down with sunset, and winds will
remain southerly/south-southwesterly through the overnight hours
and into Friday. While gusts are not expected to be as pronounced
on Friday as they were Thursday, LLWS is a concern tonight, though
once again, the LLWS is only marginal, and thus have not included
it in the TAF.
Specifics for KSTL:
Dry, VFR conditions continue to be the rule through 06Z Saturday,
with increasing high and mid-level cloud cover through the
forecast period. Winds will remain southerly/south-southwesterly
tonight and Friday, becoming southeasterly after 00Z Saturday. The
only concern this forecast period is that of LLWS tonight, mainly
in the 06-10Z time frame for KSTL. However, LLWS looks to be
marginal, and thus have not mentioned in the TAF at this time.
JP
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Record highs for Sunday, November 17th
STL 78 1958
COU 78 1958
UIN 78 1952
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A dry air mass with low dew points will promote efficient cooling
tonight, however WAA and mid/high clouds will temper the drop-off and
keep overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A weak disturbance was located over central NM around 21z per water
vapor imagery and recent RAP 1.5 PVU analyses. This feature will
quickly swing through TX tonight before reaching AR and MS tomorrow.
Although the air mass over MO/IL remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles
or light rain showers are possible over the eastern Ozarks on Fri
morning before this vort max lifts away from the area.
Look for a continued warming trend through the weekend due to
persistent southwest surface flow along with warming temperatures
aloft. Highs will probably reach the mid to upper 70s on Sun despite
substantial cloud cover and periods of precipitation. High
temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s early next week
after a strong cold front moves across the region on Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will increase on Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the surface high over the southeast US and the
developing low pressure system over the plains. Expect breezy
conditions through Sun with the highest wind speeds and gusts on
Sat.
Two low pressure systems are expected to affect our area this
weekend. The first vort max was located near the WA coast around 18z
this afternoon and is forecast to reach KS by Sat. The LLJ induced
by this feature will interact with a lifting warm front to produce
an area of rain on late Fri night and Sat morning. PW values are
forecast to rise to around 1.2" by Sat, which is around +2 SD for
November, so plenty of moisture will be available. There will
probably be a break in the rain sometime on Sat aftn between
systems. A stronger vort max is forecast to cross the Rockies and
induce surface cyclogenesis along the pre-existing baroclinic zone
over OK/KS on Sat night. Instability and lift ahead of this system
should support an area of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
The attendant cold front then moves through the CWA on Sun aftn/eve
as the system lifts towards the Great Lakes and begins to occlude.
With substantial shear in place along with at least some
instability, there is a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sun
ahead of the advancing cold front. Although there are some timing
differences between models, most of the latest model runs bring the
cold front through the LSX CWA before 00z Mon. Such timing would
limit the severe weather threat across our area to the far eastern
CWA at most. If future model runs support a slower fropa, then there
may be more of a concern for severe thunderstorms.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Dry, VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period,
accompanied by increasing high and mid-level cloud cover from the
southwest. Wind gusts have died down with sunset, and winds will
remain southerly/south-southwesterly through the overnight hours
and into Friday. While gusts are not expected to be as pronounced
on Friday as they were Thursday, LLWS is a concern tonight, though
once again, the LLWS is only marginal, and thus have not included
it in the TAF.
Specifics for KSTL:
Dry, VFR conditions continue to be the rule through 06Z Saturday,
with increasing high and mid-level cloud cover through the
forecast period. Winds will remain southerly/south-southwesterly
tonight and Friday, becoming southeasterly after 00Z Saturday. The
only concern this forecast period is that of LLWS tonight, mainly
in the 06-10Z time frame for KSTL. However, LLWS looks to be
marginal, and thus have not mentioned in the TAF at this time.
JP
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Record highs for Sunday, November 17th
STL 78 1958
COU 78 1958
UIN 78 1952
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1218 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
WILL AGAIN INCREASE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON A FEW
DEGREES...MAINLY FOLLOWING THE HRRR GUIDANCE (WHICH IS HANDLING
THE CURRENT VALUES...DEEPER MIXING...THE BEST).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY QRE
IN THE MID 30S WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES
WHILE REST OF THE AREA MORE IN THE MID 20S. SFC TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH ERN ND THRU MIDDAY AND INTO MN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY. WHILE THERMAL RIDGE AT
850 MB WILL SLIDE EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY A
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH WELL INTO THE
40S TO AROUND 50. ONE CAVEAT IS THICKNESS OF HIGH CLOUDS. RIGHT
NOW ONE PATCH OF THIN CLOUDS OVER NE ND WHILE A BIT THICKER BATCH
ALONG TROUGH...THEN CLEARING BEHIND IT. IF WE GET A GOOD DEAL OF
SUN ALONG WITH THE WEST WIND COULD SEE RED RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS
RISE A BIT HIGHER THAN FCST AS OFTEN TEMPS OVER PERFORM ON WEST
WIND DAYS.
WINDS TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVE. A SHORT WAVE CAUSING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP IN CNTRL/NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AND ARE A BIT FARTHER
NORTH TAKING MOST PRECIP IN SRN MANITOBA AND FAR NRN ND/NW MN. DID
ADJUST LOW POPS A BIT FARTHER NORTH BUT STILL KEPT POPS LOW AS
SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND MOISTURE STARVED. PRECIP TIMING WOULD
HAVE LOW CHANCES INTO NE ND 06Z-12Z THU INTO NW MN 12Z-18Z THU.
WENT LIGHT SNOW TURNING TO A MIX OR LIGHT RAIN AS TEMPS WARM
THURSDAY. MINOR PRECIP EVENT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
WEAK 850 MB COOLING BEHIND SYSTEM THU NIGHT THEN WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU
SE ND INTO MN LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES
INTRODUCED LOW POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM. AGAIN MOISTURE STARVED SO ANY
PRECIP VERY VERY LIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
HAS SHIFTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TO
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE WESTERN US. GFS WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER
SOLUTION AT DAY 4 THAN THE ECMWF. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
ECMWF BECOMES FASTER THAN THE GFS. WILL PREFER THE FASTER ECMWF.
WITH DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WEST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING PRECIP
NORTH LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL REMOVE POPS NORTHERN ND FOR SAT
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES FOR SUN AND MUCH OF THE NORTH SUN NIGHT.
PUSHED PRECIP EAST ON MON.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY ABOUT 2 DEGREES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
EXPECT VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TOMORROW MORNING...AND MVFR CIGS CAN
BE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN SITES (GFK...BJI AND DVL) BY
12Z. MVFR CIG COVERAGE MAY EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH LATER IN THE
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AT TVF AND GFK MID
MORNING AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING STILL TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1215 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
AS OF O6 UTC...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM APPROXIMATELY PIERRE
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH WILLISTON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO THE 05-06 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE LATE EVENING FORECAST. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING CLOSE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
SOME AREAS. BUT WITH A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT THINK
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF MUCH TONIGHT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES IN
SOME AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS SKY COVER REMAINS MINIMAL AND WINDS COULD
DIMINISH A BIT LATER TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WEST. OVERALL VERY
FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS EVENING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER
ALBERTA WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO MANITOBA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL BRING A WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES.
THE TEMPERATURE AT WILLISTON DROPPED 10 DEGREES BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM
CST. COULD SEE A FEW OTHER LOCALES DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT
IN GENERAL...MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER TONIGHT WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S READINGS INSTEAD OF SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE WARRANTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMPLETELY ERODES THE WARM LAYER BY 00Z THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH CENTRAL...AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE NAM/RAP13 925MB RH FIELDS HAVE NOT
BEEN INITIALIZING WELL AT ALL TODAY...AS THEY HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WE HAVE A CLEAR
SKY...THUS CANNOT USE THIS DATA FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SWATH OF LESS THAN 500FT CEILINGS
NEAR/OVER THE SNOWCOVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENSIVE AREAL EXTENT SEEMS SUSPECT AT THIS
TIME. WILL BRIEF THE INCOMING EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR THIS. IF
IT DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN AND ALL AREAS
SOUTH WOULD BE AFFECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH
OUR LOCAL AREA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN
THE PERCENT AND COVERAGE OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. BUFFER SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WE WILL EITHER SEE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CAA ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WE DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG EMBEDDED
ENERGY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST WILL
AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOK TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOWFALL OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE WE COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 3
INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOKS TO FALL BELOW THAT MARK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A WARM FRONT FROM KISN THROUGH KPIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE
WARM FRONTAL INVERSION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE STRATUS FREE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AS A SIMILIAR ENVIRONMENT RESULTED IN STRATUS ACROSS
WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA LAST NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
405 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
UPSLOPE FLOW SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TREND
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FROM SUMMERSVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH
ELKINS IN TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE MID MORNING...INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AND EXTENDED TO
15Z IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE...OTHERWISE
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AS EXPECTED BRINGING DRY COOL AIR
ON THE FRONT SIDE RESULTING IN ONE MORE COLD NIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20`S...500MB HEIGHT RISES AND
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH
THURSDAY AM WILL BEGIN A WELCOMED WARMING TREND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THU MOVES OFF THE E COAST ON FRI...BUT
NOT THAT FAR. THIS SPELLS DRY FCST. WHILE THE HIGH ALSO KEEPS IT
RATHER CLOUD FREE THU AND THU NT...LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SLOWLY EXITING HIGH WILL INTRODUCE SOME STRATOCU
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A S/W TROUGH IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALSO BRING SOME HIGH AND PERHAPS MID LEVEL CLOUD ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI.
DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE CONSTRAINED BY LOW SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STABLE ATMOSPHERE AMID HIGH PRESSURE...AND NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WITH THE HIGH NOT RIGHT OVER THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS
WERE CLOSE TO THE ALLBLEND WHICH IS ON THE LOW END OF MOS GUIDANCE
ON ACCOUNT OF THE RAW MODEL INFLUENCE SO NO CHANGE NEEDED THERE.
LOWS WERE CLOSER TO THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND THIS IDEA WAS
MAINTAINED ON ACCOUNT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. COULD SEE LOWS
FRI NT ENDING UP EVEN HIGHER GIVEN THE INTRODUCTION OF CLOUDS AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LOWERED RH VALUES A BIT VIA LATEST MOS WITH LARGE DRY AIR MASS IN
CONTROL. THIS DROPS RH VALUES INTO THE 20S THU AND FRI AFTERNOONS.
FUELS ARE OF COURSE RATHER WET ON ACCOUNT OF THE SNOW...BUT BY FRI
THEY MAY BEGIN TO DRY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHER SO
WE WILL AGAIN HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WX...A BUILDING
CONSEQUENCE OF THE DRY AUTUMN OF 2013.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED AMONGST THE MODELS WHICH FEATURES
UPR RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS SE STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROF MOVING INTO REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRIED TO KEEP MOST DRY FOR SATURDAY GIVEN GOOD DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
SUNDAY...THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MURKIER WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY IN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. FEEL BEST CHC FOR SHRA WILL BE ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY W OF OH RVR ON SUNDAY. THUS HAVE HIGH CHC ACROSS SE
OH FOR SAID TIME WITH LOW CHC ELSEWHERE. SFC LOW TRACK THRU W LAKES
HEADING INTO MONDAY AS UPR TROF SHARPENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUES WITH
INCREASING CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO
LKLY TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE. STRONG CAA COMMENCES LATER ON TUE WITH
ANY LINGERING SHRA CHANGING TO SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS AND PERHAPS ADJ
LOWLAND AREAS BEFORE ATMOS COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT. SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN FOR WED AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT.
FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF GFS
NUMBERS TO HIT WAA NIGHTTIME HRS AND POST FRONTAL CAA BETTER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS IS THE
EXTENT AND HEIGHT OF THE CEILINGS. RAP INDICATING THE CEILINGS
COULD REFORM AND EVEN LOWER DURING THE PREDAWN.
DID HOLD ONTO SOME 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.
SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE COULD FORM FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME
FRAME...MAINLY NEAR URBAN AREAS.
ANY LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING 18Z WEDNESDAY TO
00Z AS MIXING OCCURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF CEILINGS DURING THE 06Z TO 14Z
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS IN QUESTION. COULD BE MORE OR LESS THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 11/13/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M H M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KTB/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
102 AM EST WED NOV 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. WARMING TREND LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...A LOCAL COATING OF SNOW STILL POSSIBLE UNDER
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH ARE MAINLY STRETCHED ACROSS
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE...OTHERWISE A CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO
THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20`S...WILL MONITOR MORNING CLOUD COVER PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINTING AT PREDAWN
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ONGOING
FORECAST PER LATEST GUIDANCE.
SHOULD BE AN ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR S/SW. OVERNIGHT MINS A BIT TRICKY WITH
COMPETING FORCES AT WORK. CLEAR SKIES...LOW DEWPOINTS...AND MAX
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S LOWLANDS WOULD SUGGEST
MINS CLOSER TO COOLER GUIDANCE SUITE. A FAIRLY DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND HOWEVER ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB SHOULD LIMIT MAX
COOLING POTENTIAL HOWEVER. SO QUESTION BECOMES EACH SITE/S ABILITY
TO DECOUPLE. IN THE END...DECIDED TO KEEP INHERITED MINS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOWER MINS JUST SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE...YET STILL REMAINED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON THE
WHOLE AS WAS THE TREND WITH PREV FORECAST. EXPECT THE RIDGE TOPS AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TO SEE A `WARMER` NIGHT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB.
AREA REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT WITH CONTINUED S/SW SFC WINDS AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAX TEMPS REBOUNDING NICELY INTO THE UPPER
40S NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND LOWER 50S SOUTHERN LOWLANDS. WILL BE A BIT
ON THE BREEZY SIDE...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN
HIGH TERRAIN. COULD BE A BIT OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER CONCERN AS WELL
WITH LOW RH/S. ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...LOOKS LIKE THE LOWEST RH/S
DON/T OVERLAP WELL WITH THE STRONGER WINDS SO THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
HERE. SOME VERY DRY AIR ALOFT HOWEVER MAY ALSO RESULT IN RH VALUES
DOWN AROUND THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS WHERE
AFOREMENTIONED GUSTS AROUND 20-25KTS ARE POSSIBLE. YET...RECENT SNOW
MAY TAPER THIS THREAT AS WELL.
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HERE WITH INHERITED MINS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 30S LOWLANDS. AS WITH PREVIOUS NIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY
GOOD TEMP GRADIENT BTWN THE HIGH PEAKS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER NICE DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY...WITH A CONTINUED WARMUP AS
WELL WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. NUDGED
MAX TEMPS UP JUST SLIGHTLY PER LATEST 850MB/925MB TEMPS YET REMAINED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. EXPECT MAX TEMPS FRIDAY INTO THE
MID/UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS...AND 40S FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS LOW AS THURSDAY/S...NOR
WILL WIND GUST SPEEDS...SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED AMONGST THE MODELS WHICH FEATURES
UPR RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS SE STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
DEEP AMPLIFICATION OF UPR TROF MOVING INTO REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TRIED TO KEEP MOST DRY FOR SATURDAY GIVEN GOOD DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
SUNDAY...THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MURKIER WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY IN
INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. FEEL BEST CHC FOR SHRA WILL BE ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY W OF OH RVR ON SUNDAY. THUS HAVE HIGH CHC ACROSS SE
OH FOR SAID TIME WITH LOW CHC ELSEWHERE. SFC LOW TRACK THRU W LAKES
HEADING INTO MONDAY AS UPR TROF SHARPENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE THRU MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUES WITH
INCREASING CHC FOR SHRA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BUMPED UP POPS INTO
LKLY TO FOLLOW THIS FEATURE. STRONG CAA COMMENCES LATER ON TUE WITH
ANY LINGERING SHRA CHANGING TO SHSN ACROSS THE MTNS AND PERHAPS ADJ
LOWLAND AREAS BEFORE ATMOS COLUMN DRIES OUT TUE NIGHT. SFC HIGH
BUILDS IN FOR WED AS UPR TROF LIFTS OUT.
FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC WITH SOME INCORPORATION OF GFS
NUMBERS TO HIT WAA NIGHTTIME HRS AND POST FRONTAL CAA BETTER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS IS THE
EXTENT AND HEIGHT OF THE CEILINGS. RAP INDICATING THE CEILINGS
COULD REFORM AND EVEN LOWER DURING THE PREDAWN.
DID HOLD ONTO SOME 2 TO 3 THSD FT CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.
SOME 5 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE COULD FORM FOR THE 08Z TO 13Z TIME
FRAME...MAINLY NEAR URBAN AREAS.
ANY LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD BE DISSIPATING 18Z WEDNESDAY TO
00Z AS MIXING OCCURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF CEILINGS DURING THE 06Z TO 14Z
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS IN QUESTION. COULD BE MORE OR LESS THAN
FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 11/13/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M H M M M M H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...KTB/JM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...KTB/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
921 AM PST WED NOV 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TO THE AREA THURSDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SNOW TO THE CASCADES AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. COOL AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SERIES OF FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK
&&
.UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY...WEATHER...AND POPS IN THE SHORT
TERM WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. A VERY WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA...GENERATING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TERRAIN. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
TODAY.OTHERWISE EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS
BRINGING RAIN WITH PASS LEVEL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE THURSDAY SYSTEM LOOKS WEAK AND BRIEF...BUT THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY STORM IS BACKED BY A 140+KT 250MB JET AND WILL LIKELY
HAVE BLUSTERY WINDS ACCOMPANIED WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE CASCADES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WRITTEN 330 AM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...
OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO CENTRAL B.C. AND IS NOW GETTING
SHOVED INLAND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES ITS PLACE IN THE GULF
ALASKA. THE FORMER IS DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
WASHINGTON STATE. REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SHOWER OR
TWO TO THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY...WITH THE NORTH COAST AND ELEVATED
TERRAIN FAVORED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED FARTHER SOUTH AND
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE VALLEY.
WITH THE FRONT BEING RATHER BENIGN PUSHING QUICKLY TO OUR EAST
TODAY...OUR ONLY REAL NEAR TERM CONCERN IS THE FOG. ONE WOULD EXPECT
THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...BUT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH IS STIRRING THINGS UP A BIT. IT HAS BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES AND EXPECT WITH SUCH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SFC VISIBILITY BELOW A HALF
MILE FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS AND/OR WIDELY VARYING VISIBILITIES DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH. RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
WILL MEAN A SLOW CLEARING TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY
STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT AT ALL.
THE UPPER LOW NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SWINGS THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOME SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 3500-4000 FT WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...A BIT OF A WARMUP FOR
THE NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
FOR A FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THUS
JUST SOME LINGERING CASCADE SNOW SHOWERS.
A STRONGER SYSTEM CURRENTLY STILL TAKING SHAPE WEST OF ALASKA WILL
DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
WITH IT...BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND IT WILL ALSO PACK QUITE
A BIT OF WIND. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THEIR LOWEST
LEVELS YET. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A BIT OF WIND WITH IT AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THAT FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY THE
LATTER PORTION WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS START
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE...BUT THEN THEY DROP
TO ABOUT 2000 FEET IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY GETTING AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
COME DOWN THE OFFSHORE SIDE OF THIS INSIDE SLIDER COUPLED WITH STRONG
925-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...MEANING
THE FORCING WILL BE AROUND EVEN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
COUPLE WITH 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30-35 KT AND 700 MB WINDS UPWARDS
OF 60 KT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY LATER AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. KMD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY...THE REGION REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE...AND
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
HANGING IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE IN THE CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER. COOL AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP ON MONDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE NW INTO MORE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW WHICH TENDS TO MEAN MILD AND
RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. KMD
&&
.AVIATION...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE THESE LOW CIGS/VSBYS TO BE PERSISTENT TODAY...WITH ONLY VERY
GRADUAL IF ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR A BREAKOUT
TO VFR WILL BE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES...KSLE SOUTHWARD WILL LIKELY
STAY IFR ALL DAY AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW KEEPS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
PACKED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL/SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...IFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN FOG THIS
MORNING...SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO LOW MVFR BY 20Z-21Z. SOME CLEARING
IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 23Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WEAGLE
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY DOMINATE TO THE WEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREAS TRANSITING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY TURNED
PRIMARY ATTENTION TO A VIGOROUS SYSTEM APPROACHING FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER INLAND TOWARD NORTHEAST WASHINGTON. WILL
SEE QUITE THE DYNAMIC FETCH SET UP ON THIS TRAJECTORY. SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY SW PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS
FOR MIXING STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH
FREQUENT GALE GUSTS LOOKING LIKELY ALONG WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
UNLESS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SHOW UP IN THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL
RUNS...WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THIS EVENT WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. FEEL WIND WAVE/FRESH SWELL DOMINATED SEAS WILL
APPROACH AT LEAST 20 FT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS...WITH UPPER
TEENS CLOSER TO SHORE EARLY SATURDAY. SINCE THESE WAVES WILL BE
FRESHLY GENERATED...PERIODS WILL BE SHORT AND THUS THE SEAS WILL
BE VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAGLE/JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
330 AM PST WED NOV 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY CLIP THE REGION WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN...WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY. COOL AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO MILDER AND WET CONDITIONS
BY MID WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
OUR UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED NORTH INTO CENTRAL B.C. AND IS NOW GETTING
SHOVED INLAND AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES ITS PLACE IN THE GULF
ALASKA. THE FORMER IS DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
WASHINGTON STATE. REMNANTS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SHOWER OR
TWO TO THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY...WITH THE NORTH COAST AND ELEVATED
TERRAIN FAVORED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED FARTHER SOUTH AND
RESULTING IN A MIX OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE VALLEY.
WITH THE FRONT BEING RATHER BENIGN PUSHING QUICKLY TO OUR EAST
TODAY...OUR ONLY REAL NEAR TERM CONCERN IS THE FOG. ONE WOULD EXPECT
THE FOG TO BECOME DENSE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...BUT THE FRONT
MOVING THROUGH IS STIRRING THINGS UP A BIT. IT HAS BECOME DENSE AT
TIMES AND EXPECT WITH SUCH LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SFC VISIBILITY BELOW A HALF
MILE FOR MUCH OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE FOG IN SPOTS AND/OR WIDELY VARYING VISIBILITIES DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FARHTER SOUTH. RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW
WILL MEAN A SLOW CLEARING TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH VALLEY
STRUGGLING TO BREAK OUT AT ALL.
THE UPPER LOW NOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA SWINGS THROUGH LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SOME SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 3500-4000 FT WITH THIS FIRST WAVE...A BIT OF A WARMUP FOR
THE NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
FOR A FEW DAYS. WE WILL HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ON THURSDAY NIGHT THUS
JUST SOME LINGERING CASCADE SNOW SHOWERS.
A STRONGER SYSTEM CURRENTLY STILL TAKING SHAPE WEST OF ALASKA WILL
DIG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
WITH IT...BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND IT WILL ALSO PACK QUITE
A BIT OF WIND. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THEIR LOWEST
LEVELS YET. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE A BIT OF WIND WITH IT AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THAT FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY THE
LATTER PORTION WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE LOWLANDS. SNOW LEVELS START
OFF IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE 3000-3500 FT RANGE...BUT THEN THEY DROP
TO ABOUT 2000 FEET IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY GETTING AS
LOW AS 1500 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
COME DOWN THE OFFSHORE SIDE OF THIS INSIDE SLIDER COUPLED WITH STRONG
925-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT...MEANING
THE FORCING WILL BE AROUND EVEN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
COUPLE WITH 850 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30-35 KT AND 700 MB WINDS UPWARDS
OF 60 KT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY LATER AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. BE PREPARED FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. KMD
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MID WEEK...BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY...THE REGION REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE...AND
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
HANGING IN THE 2000-2500 FOOT RANGE IN THE CASCADES. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER. COOL AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO
SET UP ON MONDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS WANT TO BRING THE NW INTO MORE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY PACIFIC FLOW WHICH TENDS TO MEAN MILD AND
RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS FOR MID WEEK. KMD
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS FOR THE COAST WITH PRIMARILY IFR CIGS INLAND
UNDER STRATUS LEFT FROM RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A WEAK
PASSING FRONT IS HELPING LIFT THE DECK A BIT WITH SURPRISINGLY GOOD
VISIBILITIES UNDERNEATH. EXPECT THAT BY DAYBREAK THE FRONT WILL
HAVE SUFFICIENTLY PASSED AND THE REGION WILL SEE THE LOW STRATUS
DROP BACK TOWARD THE SURFACE RESULTING IN AREAS OF FOG. LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEY AND LIMIT BREAKOUT
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND METRO. MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF
CLEARING AT THE COAST PLUS BETWEEN KUAO AND KSLE BUT FEEL THE
SOUTH VALLEY STANDS LITTLE CHANCE OF BREAKING FREE OF THE CLOUDS
TODAY. KPDX AND KTTD WILL PROBABLY BREAK FREE MID AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN SOMEWHAT FREE OF STRATUS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT ONLY
HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL THE WEAK
FRONT PASSES SOMETIME AROUND 14Z. THEN SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO HAVE
THE DECK DROP A FEW HUNDRED FEET AND REACH IFR FOR THE BULK OF THE
MORNING ARRIVALS. MVFR CIGS AROUND 015 FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN CLEARING EXPECTED HEADING IN THE EVENING. NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT
HOW LONG THE CLEARING WILL LAST TODAY BEFORE A LOW END MVFR DECK
RETURNS OVERNIGHT. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY DOMINATE TO THE WEST WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREAS TRANSITING SOUTH OVER THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY TURNED
PRIMARY ATTENTION TO A VIGOROUS SYSTEM APPROACHING FRIDAY.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE B.C. COAST
BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER INLAND TOWARD NORTHEAST WASHINGTON.WILL SEE
QUITE THE DYNAMIC FETCH SET UP ON THIS TRAJECTORY. SOLID SMALL
CRAFT SW PRE-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING.
STRONG COLD AIR WILL FUNNEL DOWN THE COAST AND BRING STRONGER NW
WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE. AM HAVING ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
IN GALE GUSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRIDAY NIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY UNDER THIS SCENARIO. FEEL WIND WAVE/FRESH SWELL DOMINATED
SEAS WILL APPROACH AT LEAST 20 FT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
AND EASILY REACH THE UPPER TEENS CLOSER TO SHORE EARLY SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY EASE SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. /JBONK
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
802 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SE PART OF GRB CWA BETWEEN
03Z-04Z. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...MUCH OF C/NE/EC WI SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. PARTIAL
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF FOG OVER MOST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG
FROM BECOMING DENSE IN MOST PLACES. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF JET STREAK IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A FEW OBS OVER SW
WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...AND THINK THE
SAME CAN BE SAID OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND REACH THE FOX VALLEY BEFORE 00Z. CLEARING SKIES ARE WORKING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS IS WORKING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE EXITING BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
GOING INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ONCE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
DEPART EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...MODELS SHOW
MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING ACROSS ALL BUT FAR N-C WISCONSIN. AREA OF CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA LOOK TO AT LEAST GRAZE
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...SO HAVE KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
GOING THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF DEWPOINTS CAN RISE INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S..LIKE
THEY DID OVER MINNESOTA. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...SO LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER
OPTION. AFTER PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATION OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. THE
SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. CONTINUED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICH PLACES THEM IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY...WEAK ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING...BUT LOSE DEFINITION
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCT OR BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY...WHICH
WILL LEAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
PLENTY OF CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY
CENTERED AROUND A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN
EJECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT HPC DISCUSSIONS...THEY FAVOR USING THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NOT CONVINCED SLOWER IS
BETTER IN THIS INSTANCE SINCE THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF BLOCKING ACROSS
THE CONTINENT AND THERE IS A 150KT RELATIVELY ZONAL JET UPSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SO
WITH CONFLICTING SIGNALS...GUESS ITS BEST TO GO WITH AN ECMWF/GFS
BLEND TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A 50+KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. WITH DECENT -DIVQ IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS...RAIN IS A SOLID BET LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
REGION GETS TEMPORARILY DRY SLOTTED. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LEFT THOUGH...AND WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDY COVER AND MAYBE PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG LEFT OVER. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY HAD THIS COVERED PRETTY
WELL. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVE WITH THIS LOW...HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND
THE CYCLONE. CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMS THOUGH...UNTIL MORE
CONSENSUS DEVELOPS IN THE DETAILS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
WORKS OUT...WIND HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDY AND COLD ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S AND 30S. THEN A SLOW WARMING
TREND ENSUES MID-WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
A WEAK FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE TAFS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL
NEED TO WATCH SOME MVFR STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MN... WHICH COULD
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
OF THIS WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
557 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF JET STREAK IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A FEW OBS OVER SW
WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...AND THINK THE
SAME CAN BE SAID OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND REACH THE FOX VALLEY BEFORE 00Z. CLEARING SKIES ARE WORKING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS IS WORKING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE EXITING BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
GOING INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ONCE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
DEPART EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...MODELS SHOW
MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING ACROSS ALL BUT FAR N-C WISCONSIN. AREA OF CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA LOOK TO AT LEAST GRAZE
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...SO HAVE KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
GOING THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF DEWPOINTS CAN RISE INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S..LIKE
THEY DID OVER MINNESOTA. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...SO LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER
OPTION. AFTER PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATION OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. THE
SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. CONTINUED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICH PLACES THEM IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY...WEAK ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING...BUT LOSE DEFINITION
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCT OR BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY...WHICH
WILL LEAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
PLENTY OF CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY
CENTERED AROUND A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN
EJECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT HPC DISCUSSIONS...THEY FAVOR USING THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NOT CONVINCED SLOWER IS
BETTER IN THIS INSTANCE SINCE THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF BLOCKING ACROSS
THE CONTINENT AND THERE IS A 150KT RELATIVELY ZONAL JET UPSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SO
WITH CONFLICTING SIGNALS...GUESS ITS BEST TO GO WITH AN ECMWF/GFS
BLEND TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A 50+KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. WITH DECENT -DIVQ IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS...RAIN IS A SOLID BET LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
REGION GETS TEMPORARILY DRY SLOTTED. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LEFT THOUGH...AND WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDY COVER AND MAYBE PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG LEFT OVER. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY HAD THIS COVERED PRETTY
WELL. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVE WITH THIS LOW...HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND
THE CYCLONE. CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMS THOUGH...UNTIL MORE
CONSENSUS DEVELOPS IN THE DETAILS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
WORKS OUT...WIND HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDY AND COLD ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S AND 30S. THEN A SLOW WARMING
TREND ENSUES MID-WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
A WEAK FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER EAST CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. HAVE
INCREASED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE TAFS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WILL
NEED TO WATCH SOME MVFR STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MN... WHICH COULD
BRUSH FAR NORTHERN WI TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
OF THIS WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
544 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
322 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES INTO
THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. RAP SHOWING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET
COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. RESULT...PER REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATION WAS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WI THROUGH WINONA AND LA CROSSE...TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTH CENTRAL IA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S.
WILL BE WATCHING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER FRONTOGENESIS EXITING EAST EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AND END TO ANY LIGHT RAIN
ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TOWARD MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING A GENERAL CLEARING TREND
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONCERN THEN
BECOMES FOG POTENTIAL WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN TODAY/S LIGHT RAINFALL. WENT WITH AREAS
OF FOG IN THE MAIN RIVER STEMS AND PATCH FOG ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSE OVERNIGHT AS ANY FURTHER CLEARING/RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND
COMMUTE TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING THE INVERSION BREAKING AROUND
NOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPART
HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TERRITORY AS READING REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WITH INCREASING 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS STRONGEST OF THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING FOR BEST CHANCE OF COLUMN
SATURATION/RAINFALL. WENT WITH A SMALL/20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
WEST OF A CHARLES CITY TO ROCHESTER LINE AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) 330 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LOOK FOR A RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
AS BROADSCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE SQUARELY
INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MILD/MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS/MID-LEVEL STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PRODUCE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER BY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND POCKETS OF THUNDER TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON INTENSITY AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ALL POINT
TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THE
ECMWF. THE NAM PRODUCES 1200-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM ML MUCAPE SUNDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST WI IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AMPLE
BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS..WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AT ODDS ON MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING SLOWER/MORE
INTENSE AS IT LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD PRODUCE
DEFORMATION RAIN CHANGING TO POSSIBLY MEASURABLE SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHERHAND IS MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOW...LIFTING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT...WHICH PRODUCES A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THIS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S.
A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY THOUGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE ON OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AT KRST/KLSE.
WEAK FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT SATURATION IN THE LOWEST 2 KFT...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH A FAVORABLE DEPTH. TODAY/S LIGHT AND SPOTTY RAIN WILL HELP
SOME TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THERE COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FOG SO HAVE LOWERED
VISIBILITIES TO 1SM AT BOTH KRST/KLSE BUT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
THAT 1/4SM FOG COULD OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. FOR
FRIDAY...ONCE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....ZT
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO COUPLED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY HAS LEAD TO STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR MAX
WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM MANITOWOC TO DOOR COUNTY. HRRR AND RAP
SUGGEST THAT GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS WE
APPROACH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLACKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUS EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. OVER DOOR COUNTY MAX WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY
EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE PASSAGE OF
RELATIVELY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN FLAT ZONAL FLOW. PRIMARY FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET AND SOME MODEST
FRONTEGENETIC FORCING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. A FEW OF THE MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY
DRY...INCLUDING THE REG GEM AND WRFARW...ARE NOW SHOWING A NARROW
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
BEWTEEN ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. ONLY MODIFIED POPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINED IN CHANCE CATEGORY. STILL APPEARS
THAT NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE GENERALLY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MODEST ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY AS GRADIENT BAGGIER WITH APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS DURING THE PERIOD AS A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH UPPER
JET MAX...IN EXCESS OF 160 KNOTS...ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CANADA
HELPS TO AMPLIFY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...WITH A STRONG FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD
OF IT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE 12Z GEM AND 12Z GFS HAD THE FIRST OF TWO SURFACE LOWS PASSING
THROUGH NORTHWEST WI/NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND
LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS SHOWED A PRETTY WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS INDICATING QPF AND MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD A SINGLE...STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT
WAS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT ALSO HAD SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANGING FROM
RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. KEPT A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITONS EXPECTED TO PREVIAL THROUGH THURSDAY. SW LLWS WILL
PERSIST OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN TAFS SITES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AND
UNTIL ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY AT EASTERN LOCATIONS. GRADUAL INCREASE
IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH WEAK
FORCING...THUS EXPECT ONLY NARROW SW-NE ORIENTATED CORRIDOR OF LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH CIGS REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......ESB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HAVE UPGRADED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO A GALE WARNING ON THE
BAY AND NORTHERN LAKE. ALTHOUGH WAA WILL RESULT IN MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND SHALLOW MIXING ON WEDNESDAY...BUFKIT SHOWS 950 MB
WINDS INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS...SO SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS LOOK LIKE
A GOOD BET. THE WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD BE STRONGEST ON THE BAY AND
NORTHERN LAKE...WHERE THE FETCH IS LONGER FOR A SW WIND. COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO PLAY A FACTOR ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF
DOOR COUNTY. THE MIDNIGHT CREW CAN DECIDE IF THE REST OF THE LAKE
MICHIGAN ZONES (FROM SUE-SBM) NEED TO BE UPGRADED AT 4 AM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 1046MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE RETREATED
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA...AND THE ONLY CLOUD
COVER LEFT IS AN AREA OF THIN MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PLENTY OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE COLUMN. SO AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...TEMPS AND WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THIS OCCURS...AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STAYING RATHER THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...TEMPS
SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO THIS SOUTHWEST BREEZE. UPSTREAM TEMPS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FELL INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THAT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AND WARM ADVECTING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG INVERSION WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
WILL NOT REACH THEIR POTENTIAL FROM MIXING...AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH THOUGH...LOCALLY STRONGER ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE
DOOR PENINSULA WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. WINDS COULD
REACH UP TO 35-40 MPH THERE...WHICH BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES
INTO THE PICTURE. HAVE HAD A FEW POTENTIAL GALES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY THIS FALL AND THEY SEEMED TO UNDER PERFORM WHAT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURRED
AGAIN...BUT THE NAM/GFS/SREF INDICATE MINOR MIXING UP TO 950MB WHICH
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER COORDINATION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OVER THE
MIDDLE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE DOOR PENINSULA.
LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND UPGRADE IF NECESSARY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW FIRST BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO JUST SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A BIG SNOWSTORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAT IT/S 12Z RUN YESTERDAY SUGGESTED. IT IS NOW MORE LIKE THE GFS
IN BRING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS
THOUGH PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFFECTING THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS LLWS...WHICH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
45-50 KTS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 1-2K FEET AGL. DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 KTS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MELBOURNE FL
410 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC FROM THE
CAROLINAS WITH EASTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ECFL. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS
FIELDS SUGGESTING A WEAK MID (AND POSSIBLE LOW) LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
NE FROM AROUND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA.
FEW SPRINKLES COMING INTO SAINT LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FROM THE
ATLC...BUT OF NIL CONSEQUENCE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE AND EAST
ACROSS FL TODAY/TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A "TOP-DOWN" MOISTENING OF
THE LOCAL AIR MASS...AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK MID LEVEL VORT TO THE SW OF FL WILL CROSS THE STATE IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT DRY AIR IN THE H85-H50 LAYER DOESN`T APPEAR
TO COMPLETELY SATURATE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. EXPECT WE`LL SEE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID DECK.
BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE (LIGHT) RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE POST-SUNSET BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE IMPULSE MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLC. WHILE POPS GO FROM 30-50 TODAY
TO 50-60 TONIGHT THIS ISN`T LOOKING LIKE A HUGE QPF EVENT...ALTHOUGH
ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCALES...
ALTHOUGH SOME READINGS AROUND 80F WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
CWA...AS COASTAL AREAS THERE REMAIN IN THE L70S ATTM.
SAT-SUN...
THE DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT
INTO THE NW ATLC...PULLED BY A 110KT H25 JET MAX OVER ERN CANADA AND
PUSHED BY A 100KT ZONAL JET MAX OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A PERSISTENT
E/SE SFC/LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE SUNS AS THE RIDGE
ELONGATES...BEFORE VEERING TO THE S/SW SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL TROF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MILD WX PATTERN ACRS CENTRAL FL
THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABV AVG FOR MID NOV. MAXES IN
THE L/M80S WILL BE 5-8F ABV AVG...MINS IN THE M/U60S INTERIOR AND
U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST WILL BE 10-15F ABV AVG.
UPSTREAM...A STRONG 160KT JET STREAK PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF AK
WILL ADD ITS ENERGY TO THE TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE WRN U.S...
ALLOWING IT TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT NE WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE INDUCED MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
ERN U.S. WILL FORCE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BTWN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMA BANK TO RETROGRADE INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THIS WILL
GENERATE A S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR THAT WILL GENERATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE LCL AIRMASS WILL BECOME FULLY MODIFIED S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.8"-2.0" RANGE. HOWEVER...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE JET BECOMES ZONAL WHILE THE MID LVL RIDGE BLOCKS OUT
ANY SIG VORT IMPULSES. WITH SUCH HI PWAT VALUES ITS HARD TO ARGUE
AGAINST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POPS...BUT WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING IN
PLACE WILL EXPECT IT WILL BE LOW QPF STRATIFORM RAIN OR SHALLOW
CONVECTION AT BEST.
MON-THU...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREV FCST REASONING AS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WX PATTERN ACRS THE
CONUS THRU MIDWEEK. A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL DVLP ACRS NEW ENGLAND
AND ERN CANADA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED.
HOWEVER...IT WILL FORM TOO FAR TO THE N TO CRANK THE COLD FRONT
CLEAN THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA...LEAVING MOST OF ITS SWD PUSH TO THE
POST FRONTAL POLAR AIRMASS. EVEN THIS WILL BE HAMPERED BY THE ZONAL
NATURE OF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW THAT WILL CARRY THE BULK OF THE
RIDGE MORE TO THE E/NE ACRS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION THAN
E/SE INTO THE TN VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH REGION.
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE GETS CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN...BUT
IS LIKELY WILL LAY DOWN IN A WSW-ENE ORIENTATION OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ECMWF INDICATES THE FRONTAL TROF WILL HAVE HAVE A LITTLE
MORE AMPLITUDE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION AND THUS INDICATES THE FRONT
PUSHING INTO S FL BEFORE STALLING BY 00Z WED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE
ECX MOS GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE MEX MOS AFT 12Z TUE
THOUGH TEMP DIFFERENCES ARE LARGELY INSIGNIFICANT. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION THRU MIDWEEK AS A STRONG NE FLOW DVLPS WITH
THE RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE ERN CONUS...THOUGH ANY PRECIP WOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF LOW-TOPPED SHRAS WITH LIMITED QPF POTENTIAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 200 WITH LCL BKN050-060 ALONG THE COAST.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO BKN060-100 BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY
EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBYS PSBL IN LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH CIGS IN PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS COUPLED WITH 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLIER/FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. AS SUCH...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED SCA...
GOING WITH AN SCA FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
NEAR SHORE (0-20NM) AT 10 AM...AND WILL RUN UNTIL 4PM FROM 20-60NM.
OTHERWISE ONLY A VERY SLOW DECREASE IN SEAS IS INDICATED AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE 12-17KT RANGE.
SAT-SUN...DEEP HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST INTO THE WRN GOMEX WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE
BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE WEEKEND. ERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DAMPEN OUT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 4-5FT
RANGE THRU SUNDAY EVNG...DECREASING TO 3-4FT SUN NIGHT.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE HI PRES WILL ERODE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FL THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE EVNG.
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE DAY. NORTH
OF THE CAPE...WINDS BCMG A GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...THEN FRESHENING
OUT OF THE N AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...WINDS BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW AFT SUNSET...GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE W THRU DAYBREAK. SEAS 3-4FT THRU THE DAY...BUILDING
TO 4-6FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY...BCMG
HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG BUT SHALLOW POST FRONTAL RIDGE
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT INTO S FL. MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE EARLY
BCMG FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE NE AREAWIDE BY SUNSET WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE
THRU THE DAY...THEN 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
ROUGH SHORT PD WAVES EXPECTED DUE TO THE PREVAILING NRLY WIND
COMPONENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 68 80 70 / 50 50 30 20
MCO 76 66 82 67 / 40 60 40 30
MLB 77 71 82 72 / 30 50 40 20
VRB 79 72 82 72 / 30 60 40 20
LEE 74 66 82 67 / 50 50 40 30
SFB 76 68 82 67 / 50 50 40 20
ORL 77 67 82 67 / 50 60 40 30
FPR 79 72 82 73 / 20 50 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC FROM THE
CAROLINAS WITH EASTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER ECFL. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS
FIELDS SUGGESTING A WEAK MID (AND POSSIBLE LOW) LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
NE FROM AROUND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
EXPANSE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE PENINSULA.
FEW SPRINKLES COMING INTO SAINT LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES FROM THE
ATLC...BUT OF NIL CONSEQUENCE.
TODAY/TONIGHT...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE AND EAST
ACROSS FL TODAY/TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A "TOP-DOWN" MOISTENING OF
THE LOCAL AIR MASS...AS INDICATED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS. AFOREMENTIONED
WEAK MID LEVEL VORT TO THE SW OF FL WILL CROSS THE STATE IN THE
18Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT DRY AIR IN THE H85-H50 LAYER DOESN`T APPEAR
TO COMPLETELY SATURATE UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. EXPECT WE`LL SEE MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF THE MID DECK.
BETTER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE (LIGHT) RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE POST-SUNSET BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE IMPULSE MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLC. WHILE POPS GO FROM 30-50 TODAY
TO 50-60 TONIGHT THIS ISN`T LOOKING LIKE A HUGE QPF EVENT...ALTHOUGH
ANY RAINFALL IS WELCOME GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST LOCALES...
ALTHOUGH SOME READINGS AROUND 80F WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN
CWA...AS COASTAL AREAS THERE REMAIN IN THE L70S ATTM.
SAT-SUN...
THE DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT
INTO THE NW ATLC...PULLED BY A 110KT H25 JET MAX OVER ERN CANADA AND
PUSHED BY A 100KT ZONAL JET MAX OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. A PERSISTENT
E/SE SFC/LOW LVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU LATE SUNS AS THE RIDGE
ELONGATES...BEFORE VEERING TO THE S/SW SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL TROF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MILD WX PATTERN ACRS CENTRAL FL
THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABV AVG FOR MID NOV. MAXES IN
THE L/M80S WILL BE 5-8F ABV AVG...MINS IN THE M/U60S INTERIOR AND
U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST WILL BE 10-15F ABV AVG.
UPSTREAM...A STRONG 160KT JET STREAK PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF AK
WILL ADD ITS ENERGY TO THE TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE WRN U.S...
ALLOWING IT TO CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT NE WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY
TILTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE INDUCED MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE
ERN U.S. WILL FORCE AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BTWN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMA BANK TO RETROGRADE INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. THIS WILL
GENERATE A S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE H85-H50 LYR THAT WILL GENERATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
THE LCL AIRMASS WILL BECOME FULLY MODIFIED S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WITH PWAT VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.8"-2.0" RANGE. HOWEVER...LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MID/UPR LVL SUPPORT WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE JET BECOMES ZONAL WHILE THE MID LVL RIDGE BLOCKS OUT
ANY SIG VORT IMPULSES. WITH SUCH HI PWAT VALUES ITS HARD TO ARGUE
AGAINST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE POPS...BUT WITH SUCH WEAK FORCING IN
PLACE WILL EXPECT IT WILL BE LOW QPF STRATIFORM RAIN OR SHALLOW
CONVECTION AT BEST.
MON-THU...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. WIDESPREAD CIGS AOA 200 WITH LCL BKN050-060 ALONG THE COAST.
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO BKN060-100 BY LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY
EVENING. LCL MVFR VSBYS PSBL IN LIGHT RAIN...ALTHOUGH CIGS IN PRECIP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLD.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CURRENT BUOY/C-MAN OBS COUPLED WITH 00Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLIER/FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. AS SUCH...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED SCA...
GOING WITH AN SCA FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
NEAR SHORE (0-20NM) AT 10 AM...AND WILL RUN UNTIL 4PM FROM 20-60NM.
OTHERWISE ONLY A VERY SLOW DECREASE IN SEAS IS INDICATED AS WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE 12-17KT RANGE.
SAT-SUN...DEEP HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST INTO THE WRN GOMEX WILL MAINTAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE
BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC THRU THE WEEKEND. ERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
DAMPEN OUT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP SEAS IN THE 4-5FT
RANGE THRU SUNDAY EVNG...DECREASING TO 3-4FT SUN NIGHT.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE HI PRES WILL ERODE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FL THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE EVNG.
LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL THRU MOST OF THE DAY. NORTH
OF THE CAPE...WINDS BCMG A GENTLE W/SW AFT SUNSET...THEN FRESHENING
OUT OF THE N AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. SOUTH
OF THE CAPE...WINDS BCMG LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW AFT SUNSET...GRADUALLY
VEERING TO THE W THRU DAYBREAK. SEAS 3-4FT THRU THE DAY...BUILDING
TO 4-6FT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THRU THE DAY...BCMG
HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG BUT SHALLOW POST FRONTAL RIDGE
PUSHES THE COLD FRONT INTO S FL. MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE EARLY
BCMG FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE NE AREAWIDE BY SUNSET WITH OCNL GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE
THRU THE DAY...THEN 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
ROUGH SHORT PD WAVES EXPECTED DUE TO THE PREVAILING NRLY WIND
COMPONENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 68 80 70 / 50 50 30 20
MCO 76 66 82 67 / 40 60 40 30
MLB 77 71 82 72 / 30 50 40 20
VRB 79 72 82 72 / 30 60 40 20
LEE 74 66 82 67 / 50 50 40 30
SFB 76 68 82 67 / 50 50 40 20
ORL 77 67 82 67 / 50 60 40 30
FPR 79 72 82 73 / 20 50 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1158 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LIGHT WINDS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WERE APPROACHING FORECAST
MINS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AND HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL. SO LOWERED THE MINS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION AND ADJUSTED THE WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING EAST OVER OUR CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WITH DRY LAYER AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE RFW CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA WAA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK
TO OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING LOW
TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN HOW LOW I
WENT...BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AT
LEAST IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE RFW CRITERIA MET AT LEAST ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT
OF OUR CWA. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MEETING
CRITERIA. IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL GET A FULL 3HR OF RFW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO I DECIDED TO START WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS FOR THE
PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF COOL
ON MONDAY BUT QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
PICK...WITH THE GFS AT LEAST 12 HOURS FASTER WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. SO THURSDAY COULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN WITH THE FRONT...OR PREFRONTAL WARMING AHEAD OF IT...AND
WITH NO CLEAR CHOICE ACCEPTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. EITHER
WAY...MUCH COLDER SHOULD ARRIVE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS THE
BEST UPPER FORCING WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1010 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LIGHT WINDS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA WERE APPROACHING FORECAST
MINS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED
AND HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE FALL. SO LOWERED THE MINS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION AND ADJUSTED THE WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING EAST OVER OUR CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WITH DRY LAYER AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE RFW CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA WAA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK
TO OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING LOW
TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN HOW LOW I
WENT...BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AT
LEAST IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE RFW CRITERIA MET AT LEAST ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT
OF OUR CWA. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MEETING
CRITERIA. IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL GET A FULL 3HR OF RFW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO I DECIDED TO START WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
INTI AL CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
AROUND THE BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS AND WITH LATEST SREF AND GEFS DATA BACKING OFF OF POP
VALUES...THINK LOWERING POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE
FORCING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH DRY PROFILES AND
AFOREMENTIONED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS...DO NOT THINK REALIZATION
OF INSTABILITY IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGH SAGS TO
THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AM NOT
EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-THURSDAY)...BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING EXPECTED BEFORE A ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH LEADING TO PREDOMINATELY WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET...BUT
CONTINUED WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1008 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS CARIBOU ME
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS MAINE AND THE MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS A PRETTY
STRONG GRADIENT FROM CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR FROM CALAIS WWD TO
DEXTER. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
WILL BECOME MORE OF A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES TODAY...WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH...SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 30S IN THE
CLOUDY AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA.
940 PM UPDATE...THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH
AND AS OF 0230Z EXTENDS ON A LINE FROM ABOUT DOVER-FOXCROFT TO
MACHIAS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE CLEAR WITH AREAS TO
THE NORTH CLOUDY. THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHIFT VERY
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AREAS FROM BAXTER STATE PARK ON
NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND THE CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWLY LOWERING. TEMPERATURES
IN THE STRATUS AREAS HAVE BEEN STEADY SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL. BY MORNING THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY/TEMP
GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
627 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS THE
STRATUS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF BANGOR
WITHIN THE HOUR. THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING. IN THE FAR NORTH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD
THE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST TENDS ON THE 11U-3.9 SATELLITE CHANNEL AND
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST.
MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A FAST MOVING JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH
IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRATUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY EVNG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVRNGT FRI. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE SAT
MRNG...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/WNDS. MATCH GUIDE FOR
MAX/MIN. NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS
OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
RETREAT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES INTO THE ERN LAKES. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD A LOW CNTRD OVR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING INTO NRN CANADA...AND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE POSITION OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVR
SE WI. MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO SE JAMES BAY...THE FRONT
TO WRN ME. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO NRN LAKE MI...THE FRONT TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE ECMWF TRAILS THE GFS
BY ABOUT 12HRS. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH BY MON EVNG...THE
ECMWF BY TUE MRNG. ONCE THROUGH HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED SUPERBLEND FOR EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 3500 AGL AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 06-07Z AT KFVE
AND 08/09Z AT KCAR AND KPQI. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING FRI. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR THROUGH
FRI.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT...KFVE...KCAR...AND KPQI MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF
THIS EVENING WITH A WSW WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...RB/VJN
MARINE...RB/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1254 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A RAPIDLY MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS MAINE AND THE MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE...STRATUS DECK ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO
BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS A PRETTY
STRONG GRADIENT FROM CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR FROM CALAIS WWD TO
DEXTER. BOTH THE NAM AND RAP INDICATE THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS
WILL BECOME MORE OF A STRATOCU DECK ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES TODAY...WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING. FURTHER SOUTH...SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS IN THE CLEAR AREAS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH 30S IN THE
CLOUDY AREAS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER 50S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE
FCST AREA.
940 PM UPDATE...THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH
AND AS OF 0230Z EXTENDS ON A LINE FROM ABOUT DOVER-FOXCROFT TO
MACHIAS. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE ARE CLEAR WITH AREAS TO
THE NORTH CLOUDY. THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHIFT VERY
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AREAS FROM BAXTER STATE PARK ON
NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND THE CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWLY LOWERING. TEMPERATURES
IN THE STRATUS AREAS HAVE BEEN STEADY SINCE LATE AFTERNOON...AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. ACROSS
THE SOUTH WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FALL. BY MORNING THE COLDEST SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO THE SKY/TEMP
GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTS...OBSERVATIONS...AND
EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
627 PM UPDATE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT REMAINS THE
STRATUS THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE CWA. THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS
HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTH...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF BANGOR
WITHIN THE HOUR. THE SOUTHERN EDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING. IN THE FAR NORTH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD
THE CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
LATEST TENDS ON THE 11U-3.9 SATELLITE CHANNEL AND
OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST ARE PLANNED WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST.
MOISTURE STREAMING ALONG A FAST MOVING JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTH
IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRATUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC FRIDAY EVNG
WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH OVRNGT FRI. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NRN MAINE SAT
MRNG...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/WNDS. MATCH GUIDE FOR
MAX/MIN. NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO THE WINDS FOR GUSTS
OVER LAND 25 PERCENT OVER WATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
RETREAT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES INTO THE ERN LAKES. AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD A LOW CNTRD OVR NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING INTO NRN CANADA...AND TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE POSITION OF THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OVR
SE WI. MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO SE JAMES BAY...THE FRONT
TO WRN ME. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO NRN LAKE MI...THE FRONT TO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE ECMWF TRAILS THE GFS
BY ABOUT 12HRS. THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH BY MON EVNG...THE
ECMWF BY TUE MRNG. ONCE THROUGH HIGHER PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOADED SUPERBLEND FOR EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 3500 AGL AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 04Z AT KFVE
AND 07/08Z AT KCAR AND KPQI. THE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
VFR BY LATE MORNING FRI. VFR EXPECTED AT KBHB AND KBGR THROUGH
FRI.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT...KFVE...KCAR...AND KPQI MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 4 FT AT THE EASTERN MAINE SHELF
THIS EVENING WITH A WSW WIND OF AROUND 10 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...RB/VJN
MARINE...RB/VJN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1136 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 910 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
The warming trend will continue with warmer lows tgt than
Wednesday ngt due to continued sly sfc winds and swly low
level/boundry layer winds, mid-high level cloudiness, and slightly
higher sfc dew points compared to the previous ngt. There was a
few weak radar echoes moving into swrn MO this evng associated
with weak low-mid level waa ahead of a shortwave moving ewd
through the srn Plains. Could not rule out sprinkles from mid
level clouds towards mrng in portions of cntrl and sern MO,
although the lower level below 700 mb should remain quite dry
through 12z Friday.
GKS
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A dry air mass with low dew points will promote efficient cooling
tonight, however WAA and mid/high clouds will temper the drop-off and
keep overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A weak disturbance was located over central NM around 21z per water
vapor imagery and recent RAP 1.5 PVU analyses. This feature will
quickly swing through TX tonight before reaching AR and MS tomorrow.
Although the air mass over MO/IL remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles
or light rain showers are possible over the eastern Ozarks on Fri
morning before this vort max lifts away from the area.
Look for a continued warming trend through the weekend due to
persistent southwest surface flow along with warming temperatures
aloft. Highs will probably reach the mid to upper 70s on Sun despite
substantial cloud cover and periods of precipitation. High
temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s early next week
after a strong cold front moves across the region on Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will increase on Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the surface high over the southeast US and the
developing low pressure system over the plains. Expect breezy
conditions through Sun with the highest wind speeds and gusts on
Sat.
Two low pressure systems are expected to affect our area this
weekend. The first vort max was located near the WA coast around 18z
this afternoon and is forecast to reach KS by Sat. The LLJ induced
by this feature will interact with a lifting warm front to produce
an area of rain on late Fri night and Sat morning. PW values are
forecast to rise to around 1.2" by Sat, which is around +2 SD for
November, so plenty of moisture will be available. There will
probably be a break in the rain sometime on Sat aftn between
systems. A stronger vort max is forecast to cross the Rockies and
induce surface cyclogenesis along the pre-existing baroclinic zone
over OK/KS on Sat night. Instability and lift ahead of this system
should support an area of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
The attendant cold front then moves through the CWA on Sun aftn/eve
as the system lifts towards the Great Lakes and begins to occlude.
With substantial shear in place along with at least some
instability, there is a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sun
ahead of the advancing cold front. Although there are some timing
differences between models, most of the latest model runs bring the
cold front through the LSX CWA before 00z Mon. Such timing would
limit the severe weather threat across our area to the far eastern
CWA at most. If future model runs support a slower fropa, then there
may be more of a concern for severe thunderstorms.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period with southerly winds. An area of light rain over southern
Missouri tonight continues to make slow northeastward progression,
though sprinkles cannot be ruled out at KCOU during the late
overnight/early morning hours, confidence is too low to include in
the TAF at this time. All other TAF sites are expected to remain
dry, with the greatest chance for precipitation overnight tonight
mainly over southeastern Missouri, well south of TAF locations.
Otherwise, look for mid-level clouds to continue to filter over the
area, with low VFR cigs possible by the end of the forecast
period. The only other concern is LLWS tonight, which similar to
last night, remains marginal, precluding mention in the TAF
package.
Specifics for KSTL:
Dry conditions are expected to prevail this forecast period, with
mid-level clouds continuing to stream over the area from the
southwest. VFR conditions should persist through 06Z Saturday,
though expect MVFR by the end of the forecast period ahead of the
approaching weather system. Winds will remain southerly to
southwesterly tonight and Friday, backing to the southeast by
Friday night. Once again (and similar to last night), LLWS mainly
from now through 10-11Z remains marginal, and thus have elected
not to mention in the current TAF package.
JP
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Record highs for Sunday, November 17th
STL 78 1958
COU 78 1958
UIN 78 1952
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES INTO
THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. RAP SHOWING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET
COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. RESULT...PER REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATION WAS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WI THROUGH WINONA AND LA CROSSE...TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTH CENTRAL IA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S.
WILL BE WATCHING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER FRONTOGENESIS EXITING EAST EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AND END TO ANY LIGHT RAIN
ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TOWARD MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING A GENERAL CLEARING TREND
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONCERN THEN
BECOMES FOG POTENTIAL WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN TODAY/S LIGHT RAINFALL. WENT WITH AREAS
OF FOG IN THE MAIN RIVER STEMS AND PATCH FOG ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSE OVERNIGHT AS ANY FURTHER CLEARING/RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND
COMMUTE TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING THE INVERSION BREAKING AROUND
NOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPART
HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TERRITORY AS READING REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WITH INCREASING 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS STRONGEST OF THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING FOR BEST CHANCE OF COLUMN
SATURATION/RAINFALL. WENT WITH A SMALL/20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
WEST OF A CHARLES CITY TO ROCHESTER LINE AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LOOK FOR A RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
AS BROADSCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE SQUARELY
INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MILD/MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS/MID-LEVEL STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PRODUCE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER BY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND POCKETS OF THUNDER TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON INTENSITY AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ALL POINT
TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THE
ECMWF. THE NAM PRODUCES 1200-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM ML MUCAPE SUNDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST WI IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AMPLE
BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS..WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AT ODDS ON MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING SLOWER/MORE
INTENSE AS IT LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD PRODUCE
DEFORMATION RAIN CHANGING TO POSSIBLY MEASURABLE SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHERHAND IS MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOW...LIFTING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT...WHICH PRODUCES A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THIS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S.
A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY THOUGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
AVIATION FORECAST. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLY
AT RST...DOWN TO 3F AS OF 05Z...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A 5-10 KT
WESTERLY BREEZE. AT LSE...A SOUTH WIND HAS KEPT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS HIGH...AT 11F AS OF 05Z. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING...CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD
THEREFORE MAKE RST MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THAT 5 TO 10 KT BREEZE DOES NOT LOOK TO DIMINISH MUCH
THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO
IFR FOR 11-15Z. AT LSE...THE HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS
CONCERNING...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND THUS THE TEMP STANDS A
BETTER CHANCE OF HITTING THE DEWPOINT. HERE TOO HAVE KEPT THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES FOR 11-15Z. ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENT
WAS TO DELAY ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION TIL 10Z AT THE EARLIEST.
AFTER 15Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A DRY AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ONE ISSUE TOWARDS 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...
POSSIBLY AT BOTH TAF SITES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO TIGHTEN
UP...CAUSING WINDS TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE.
WILL LET THE NEXT TAF FORECAST ADDRESS THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
MORE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1051 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE SE PART OF GRB CWA BETWEEN
03Z-04Z. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN WI
TONIGHT...MUCH OF C/NE/EC WI SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. PARTIAL
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE
EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF FOG OVER MOST OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT.
THINK THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 15 KTS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG
FROM BECOMING DENSE IN MOST PLACES. HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF JET STREAK IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A FEW OBS OVER SW
WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...AND THINK THE
SAME CAN BE SAID OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND REACH THE FOX VALLEY BEFORE 00Z. CLEARING SKIES ARE WORKING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS IS WORKING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE EXITING BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
GOING INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ONCE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
DEPART EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...MODELS SHOW
MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING ACROSS ALL BUT FAR N-C WISCONSIN. AREA OF CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA LOOK TO AT LEAST GRAZE
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...SO HAVE KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
GOING THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF DEWPOINTS CAN RISE INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S..LIKE
THEY DID OVER MINNESOTA. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...SO LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER
OPTION. AFTER PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATION OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. THE
SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. CONTINUED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICH PLACES THEM IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY...WEAK ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING...BUT LOSE DEFINITION
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCT OR BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY...WHICH
WILL LEAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
PLENTY OF CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY
CENTERED AROUND A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN
EJECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT HPC DISCUSSIONS...THEY FAVOR USING THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NOT CONVINCED SLOWER IS
BETTER IN THIS INSTANCE SINCE THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF BLOCKING ACROSS
THE CONTINENT AND THERE IS A 150KT RELATIVELY ZONAL JET UPSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SO
WITH CONFLICTING SIGNALS...GUESS ITS BEST TO GO WITH AN ECMWF/GFS
BLEND TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A 50+KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. WITH DECENT -DIVQ IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS...RAIN IS A SOLID BET LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
REGION GETS TEMPORARILY DRY SLOTTED. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LEFT THOUGH...AND WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDY COVER AND MAYBE PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG LEFT OVER. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY HAD THIS COVERED PRETTY
WELL. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVE WITH THIS LOW...HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND
THE CYCLONE. CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMS THOUGH...UNTIL MORE
CONSENSUS DEVELOPS IN THE DETAILS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
WORKS OUT...WIND HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDY AND COLD ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S AND 30S. THEN A SLOW WARMING
TREND ENSUES MID-WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LIGHT RAIN HAS ENDED OVER EC WI...AND CLEARING WILL OCCUR THERE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN WI OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FOG
IN THE TAFS...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS. THE
FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID-MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
341 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN THE MTNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LAPSE
RATES IN THE 6-7 C/KM. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE STABLE SO SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE. 700 MB FLOW WILL BE SWLY WHICH WOULD FAVOR
PORTIONS OF ZNS 31 AND 33 FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. OVERALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN A FEW SPOTS THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ABV 10000 FT HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.
OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS. AFTN HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO HOWEVER IF MID LVL CLOUDS HANG TOGETHER
CLOSER TO THE WY-CO BORDER ALL DAY READINGS MAY STAY IN THE 50S.
.LONG TERM...WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
TIME AROUND. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A PAIR OF FAST-MOVING TROUGHS
MOVING OVER THE STATE. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
EVIDENT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM CONTAINING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALSO OFFSHORE. MODEL QPF FIELDS FOR BOTH
SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY OWING
TO THE RAPID SPEED WITH WHICH THE SYSTEMS CROSS OVER THE STATE.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL BE LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FAST FLOW COULD HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS A LITTLE BIT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL PRODUCE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. CROSS
SECTIOINS DO NOT SHOW A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED MOUNTAIN WAVE
STRUCTURE...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING TO COVER THIS WINDY PERIOD. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS
SHOW AN AWFUL LOT OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM 06Z
THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO MIX DOWNWARD OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK THINGS LOOK DRY AS ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BY
THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO A BIT MORE
TROUGHINESS OVER THE STATE WHICH COULD BRING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WSW EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE SLY BY 14Z. FOR THIS AFTN THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAP AND THE HRRR WITH REGARDS TO WIND
DIRECTIONS. THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE WLY WHILE THE RAP HAS
A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ENE BY 20Z WHICH LINGER THRU 00Z. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
PREVIOUS WND FCST IN PLACE WITH A MORE WLY DIRECTION. FOR THIS
EVENING WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR COZ035>039.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.UPDATE...
MEAN HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST NEAR 35N70W WITH WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE MS VALLEY AREA. THIS LATTER FEATURE IS
ASSOCD WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY
AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. FAIRLY SHARP SFC TROUGH IS LOCATED
JUST OFF THE NE FL/SE GA COAST AND AN AREA OF SCT SHOWERS IS NOTED
JUST E OF TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ANGLES NW INTO SE GA
COASTAL ZONES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPPER FORCING FROM APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWING UP AS PRODUCING GENERALLY WEAK RADAR
RETURNS OVER THE NE GULF AND NE FL. NOT MUCH AT ALL HAS FALLEN IN
OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THESE RETURNS YET...BUT ALL MODELS INDICATE
THAT EVENTUALLY THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN (DRY LAYER
NOTED IN JAX SOUNDING 800-600 MB OR ABOUT 6500-14000 FT) AND
GENERATE QPF OVER NE FL AND SECTIONS OF SE GA THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVE.
HAVE UPPED OUR POPS BY 10-20% OVER THE AREA FOR TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BASED ON GUIDANCE AND HRRR MODEL. CAPPED POPS AT 60-70% FOR
NOW WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
ALSO TWEAKED HIGHS A BIT LOWER OVER INTERIOR NW ZONES AS THE WEDGE
AFFECT OF THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER LAND MAINTAINS A NE TO E
WIND COMPONENT AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF LITTLE CHANGE
DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL BUT SOME
LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER
COASTAL GEORGIA DUE TO THE SFC TROUGH AND ASSOCD STRONGER LLVL
CONVERGENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BUT ANTICIPATE
MVFR BY THE AFTN MAINLY JAX METRO TAFS TO SSI AREA. VICINITY SHOWERS
LOOK GOOD BUT TEMPO MVFR GROUPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER
VSBY AND CIGS. TONIGHT...SKIES CONTINUE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MVFR MAY
BE PREVAILING BUT SOME CONFLICTING GUIDANCE...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PROBABLY MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS. MAY ALSO INTRODUCE MVFR VSBY
FOR LATE TONIGHT IN THE NEXT 18Z TAF FORECAST SET.
&&
.MARINE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SCEC CONDS OCCURRING IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH SELY WINDS 14G19KT AT 41012 AND SEAS UP TO 6
FT. WITHIN ABOUT 10-15 MILE OF THE COAST WINDS ARE NLY DUE TO THE
TROUGH...BUT NAM INSISTS ON THE TROUGH WEAKENING. NOT TOTALLY SOLD
ON THAT SO WILL TREND NEARSHORE WINDS A BIT DIFFERENT IN RESPECT TO
THE TROUGH.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO E SWELLS TODAY AND LIKELY TO
PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 55 74 61 / 60 50 20 20
SSI 68 60 70 63 / 70 60 30 30
JAX 71 60 72 63 / 70 60 30 30
SGJ 72 65 72 66 / 60 50 40 30
GNV 72 62 74 64 / 60 60 40 30
OCF 74 65 75 67 / 60 50 40 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/MCALLISTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
915 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA... KEEPING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...
FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL SW FLOW AND A PROMINENT APPROACHING WAVE IS
CAUSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD NC... AND THE DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP... NOTED WELL BY THE CONTRASTING
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CHS AND GSO. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER WITH
HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING WITH INCREASING LIFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND APPROACHES
NC LATER TODAY. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS JUST ISOLATED PATCHY
SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL/SRN SC INTO NE GA... WHICH THE HRRR BRINGS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... BUT THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL GIVEN HOW SHALLOW AND WEAKLY FORCED
THEY SHOULD BE. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 5 PM (ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR/RAP WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH THE CURRENT TEMPORAL TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM
FORCING)... EXISTING RAIN CHANCE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD... BRINGING
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SW CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON... EXPANDING ENE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY CONSIDERING THAT
THESE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE STILL ALLOWING SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE. CURRENT READINGS ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PACE... AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST GRIDDED LAMP FORECAST
GUIDANCE... SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO CURRENT HIGHS
FROM 55 SW TO 63 EAST. -GIH
BY THE EVENING...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OWING TO THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT BRIEF TAP OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.0-1.25"...DPVA ALONG WITH THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...NWP MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED WITH ITS WETTER TREND...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST
AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE CAROLINAS LARGELY DUE
TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST. GIVEN SUCH GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL POPS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...RAIN AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
MILDER NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT /...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND GENERALLY
EAST-SELY. WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH NO MEANS TO SCOUR THE LEFT-OVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SKIES WILL LOOK OMINOUS THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PREDOMINATELY
BROKEN MVFR CEILING BETWEEN 2-3KT PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVOLVING ESSENTIALLY INTO A DRY IN-SITU LIKE CAD. EXPECT THE
WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S...POSSIBLY
MID 60S IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 238 AM FRIDAY...
LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN MOIST AND MILD... WITH STRATUS... FOG AND MIST...
COURTESY OF THE RESIDUAL PIEDMONT IN-SITU DAMMING AND LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING THE WARMER AIR TO FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE.
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE SANDHILLS...
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... THE TRIAD MAY END UP
REMAINING CLOUDY ALL DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING LATE
IN THE DAY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
BREAKS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THEREFORE... EXPECT THE WARMER READINGS
FROM THE SANDHILLS THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE 70 OR THE LOWER 70S. TO THE NW... FROM RALEIGH TO
GREENSBORO... EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ON THE RISE... WITH HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC BY 12Z/MONDAY IN
THE FAR NW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THE MILD/MOIST AIR MASS OUT AND REPLACE IT
AGAIN WITH ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. THE DYNAMICS WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY SECONDARY WAVE ON THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE QPF. EVEN THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY... QPF IS ONLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.25. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z/MONDAY... WITH CLEARING IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SENSIBLE WEATHER... MILD TO WARM SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING... THEN
CLEARING... BREEZY AND TURNING COLDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S... FALLING INTO THE 50S WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY
50-55.
WED-THU... STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD/EXTEND
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION LATE WEEK. LOWS 25-30. HIGHS
47-52 WED... AND 50-55 THU.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 620 AM FRIDAY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
S/W TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
WILL RESULT IN TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AS
EARLY AS 18-21Z ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...SPREADING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
TO IFR-LIFR AS WIDESPREAD RAIN/SHOWERS MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK: ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS(LIKELY MVFR)WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR-LIFR SATURDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY...THEN DROP BACK TO MAINLY
IFR SUN EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AS A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACCOMPANY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME
MON NIGHT/TUE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VIS SAT SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CWA...WITH EXCEPTION OF
SOME LINGERING STRATUS OVER PARTS OF BELTRAMI COUNTY. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE GOING CLEAR SKIES FOR REMAINDER OF AM
AND INTO THE AFTN...THEN TIMING IN CLOUDS OVER SD. ALSO HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR SAME REASONING I REMOVED THEM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A DECENT OMEGA FIELD WITH COLUMN SATURATED IN
THE MID LEVELS...HOWEVER A VERY DRY LAYER IN THE 925 TO 850 LAYER.
SATURATED LAYER WOULD INDICATE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS THROUGH
THE WARM/DRY LAYER BENEATH...AND DO NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP AT
THE SFC. SINCE THIS PERIOD HAS FLIP FLOPPED SEVERAL TIMES...DID
KEEP IN SPRINKLES FOR THOSE AREAS. NOTE THE NAM DOES SHOW LOWER
MID LEVEL CIGS THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN...AND NOW THE 300 K
ISENTROPIC LAYER IS WHERE SATURATED CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BEGIN AS OPPOSED TO THE 305 K ON YESTERDAYS RUN. SO THE
NAM IS SATURATING COLUMN CLOSER TO SFC THAN THE GFS...WHICH HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAYS RUN. HAVE ALSO CHANGED FROM RAIN
TO DRIZZLE POPS IN THE EAST AFT 06Z (SAME REASONING AS YESTERDAY).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
FOG IN VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AREA OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG THAT
WAS AROUND TVF/CKN HAS MOVED OUT. STARTING OFF PRETTY CLEAR IN ALL
BUT A FEW AREAS IN NRN MN...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. LATEST HRRR
STILL SHOWS A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP VERY LATE TODAY IN SE ND SO WILL
KEEP THAT LOW POP. BUT OTHERWISE GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND HRRR SHOWS
LOW 50S IN SW FCST WITH UPPER 40S IN THE RRV AND LOWER TO MID 40S
IN BAUDETTE REGION WHICH IS CLOSE TO GOING FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
LOW CLOUD COVER EXITING THE NRN FCST AREA AT 09Z WITH AREAS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACING IT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER. MAINLY CLEAR DVL-GFK-PKD SOUTHWARD AND THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT A FAIRLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS
THE FAR NORTH...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE. MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL SD 18Z FRI THEN IT SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO SE ND BY 00Z AND THEN INTO NRN MN THIS EVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THAT MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AREA SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY THE
NRN EDGE OF THE 850 MB JET TOWARD 00Z OVER SE ND INTO PARTS OF NRN
MN.
MILD DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S EVEN SOME LOW 50S PSBL
SW FCST AREA.
QUIET TONIGHT...BUT GFS/NAM MOS AND 925 MB RH SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PSBL LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH IN LOW LEVEL JET
THRU PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO SE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. REGULATED ANY SMALL CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TO ERN
FCST AREA IN THIS MOISTURE REGIME. ANOTHER MILD DAY THOUGH NOT AS
WARM IN SOME AREAS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. BUT STILL HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS COMPLEX BUT OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. ALL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MAIN SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE...EDGING INTO NW-NCNTRL ND SAT NIGHT. TO SOME DEGREE...LOOKS
LIKE A DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE SD INTO NRN MN SAT EVE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF THIS LOW OVER ERN ND INTO
NW MN AS SAT NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAIN COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THRU
THE THE FCST AREA DAYTIME SUNDAY. PTYPE WOULD INDICATE INITIALLY
RAIN...THEN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MAX IN NW MN
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. BEST CHC OF
THIS TVF-ROX-BDE-BJI REGION. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN-EVE. OVERALL THOUGH AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
IS LESS THAN ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO...SO NOTHING LIKE THE
DEPARTURES EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST OUTBREAK.
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE US ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN US BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING VERY WELL THIS PERIOD. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF
HAD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE ON WED. GFS ENSEMBLE, OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THIS PERIOD COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. ON WED, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING COOLER AIR SOUTH EACH RUN TO SUPPORT THE ZONAL PATTERN.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS MAY
CHANGE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
FAST FLOW PATTERNS.
HIGH TEMPS TWEAKED UP OR DOWN A DEGREE OR SO THIS PERIOD. LOWS
INCREASED ABOUT TWO DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE AND AIRMASS JUST ABOVE
SFC IS WELL MIXED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NR 10 KTS. EXPECT RESIDUAL
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA TO ALSO SCATTER OUT
MORE AS MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS OR MID
CLOUD MAINLY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. RISK OF LOWER CIGS RETURNING
FROM THE SOUTH OVER BJI AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY SOUTH 8 TO
15 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
FOG IN VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AREA OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG THAT
WAS AROUND TVF/CKN HAS MOVED OUT. STARTING OFF PRETTY CLEAR IN ALL
BUT A FEW AREAS IN NRN MN...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. LATEST HRRR
STILL SHOWS A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP VERY LATE TODAY IN SE ND SO WILL
KEEP THAT LOW POP. BUT OTHERWISE GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND HRRR SHOWS
LOW 50S IN SW FCST WITH UPPER 40S IN THE RRV AND LOWER TO MID 40S
IN BAUDETTE REGION WHICH IS CLOSE TO GOING FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
LOW CLOUD COVER EXITING THE NRN FCST AREA AT 09Z WITH AREAS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACING IT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER. MAINLY CLEAR DVL-GFK-PKD SOUTHWARD AND THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT A FAIRLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS
THE FAR NORTH...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE. MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL SD 18Z FRI THEN IT SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO SE ND BY 00Z AND THEN INTO NRN MN THIS EVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THAT MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AREA SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY THE
NRN EDGE OF THE 850 MB JET TOWARD 00Z OVER SE ND INTO PARTS OF NRN
MN.
MILD DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S EVEN SOME LOW 50S PSBL
SW FCST AREA.
QUIET TONIGHT...BUT GFS/NAM MOS AND 925 MB RH SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PSBL LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH IN LOW LEVEL JET
THRU PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO SE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. REGULATED ANY SMALL CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TO ERN
FCST AREA IN THIS MOISTURE REGIME. ANOTHER MILD DAY THOUGH NOT AS
WARM IN SOME AREAS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. BUT STILL HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS COMPLEX BUT OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. ALL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MAIN SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE...EDGING INTO NW-NCNTRL ND SAT NIGHT. TO SOME DEGREE...LOOKS
LIKE A DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE SD INTO NRN MN SAT EVE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF THIS LOW OVER ERN ND INTO
NW MN AS SAT NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAIN COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THRU
THE THE FCST AREA DAYTIME SUNDAY. PTYPE WOULD INDICATE INITIALLY
RAIN...THEN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MAX IN NW MN
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. BEST CHC OF
THIS TVF-ROX-BDE-BJI REGION. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN-EVE. OVERALL THOUGH AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
IS LESS THAN ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO...SO NOTHING LIKE THE
DEPARTURES EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST OUTBREAK.
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE US ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN US BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING VERY WELL THIS PERIOD. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF
HAD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE ON WED. GFS ENSEMBLE, OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THIS PERIOD COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. ON WED, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING COOLER AIR SOUTH EACH RUN TO SUPPORT THE ZONAL PATTERN.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS MAY
CHANGE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
FAST FLOW PATTERNS.
HIGH TEMPS TWEAKED UP OR DOWN A DEGREE OR SO THIS PERIOD. LOWS
INCREASED ABOUT TWO DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE AND AIRMASS JUST ABOVE
SFC IS WELL MIXED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NR 10 KTS. EXPECT RESIDUAL
LOWER CLOUDS IN THE BEMIDJI-PARK RAPIDS AREA TO ALSO SCATTER OUT
MORE AS MORNING PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE JUST SOME CIRRUS OR MID
CLOUD MAINLY THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. RISK OF LOWER CIGS RETURNING
FROM THE SOUTH OVER BJI AREA LATE TONIGHT. WINDS TODAY SOUTH 8 TO
15 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
623 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM GULF REGION
AS CAN BE SEEN IN LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE LOOP AND LATEST RUC 850
DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOW AN AXIS FROM NORTHWEST ALABAMA INTO THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND. UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA HEADING THIS
WAY TODAY. CURRENTLY BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK THIS WAY REACHING THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AROUND 15Z AND INTERSTATE 65 BY 17Z. LOWER LEVELS OF
TROPOSPHERE STILL VERY DRY SO EXPECT IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN HITTING THE GROUND. MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER DURING THE EVENING WHLE
REMAINING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT CROSSVILLE
TONIGHT MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS.
BOYD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...
AN APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND ITS RESULTANT SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS THE FOCUS OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IS
QUITE DRY ACCORDING TO FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ALTHOUGH DEWS ARE
RISING THIS MORNING...BELIEVE THE MODELS RAPID MOISTENING OF THE
LOW AND MID LEVELS IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE. WITH VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z TODAY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR IN
PLACE...LEFT POPS SLGT OR BELOW UNTIL 18Z. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST MODEL DEPICTIONS SHOW PRECIP SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. THUS HAVE INCLUDED CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR THE CWA
BY 06Z TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A POTENT UPPER LOW PROGGED TO
PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN
OFF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY 18Z SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A LARGE WARM SECTOR RANGING FROM ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE
OH AND TN VALLEY. AS OF RIGHT NOW...SPC HAS THIS BROAD AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK. AT THE MOMENT...IT WOULD APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AS MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY PHASED WITH 850 LLJ ENERGY WILL BE IN THE KY/IN/OH AREA.
HOWEVER...A MESSY MIX OF 35+ KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...NEGATIVE LI
VALUES...AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE DO APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TWO THINGS APPEAR TO BE BIG DIFFERENCE MAKERS...ONE WOULD BE IF
THIS UPPER LOW CAN DIG ANY FURTHER SOUTH...IF SO...THE ROBUST
DYNAMICAL LIFT WOULD COINCIDE WITH A PRETTY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AND UPSCALE GROWTH WOULD BE VERY LIKELY. EVEN STILL...A SEVERE
THREAT STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER DIFFERENCE
MAKER WOULD BE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
VERY MOIST BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND WITH A VERY STRONG LLJ IN PLACE AT
THAT TIME...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE SCATTERED OUT IN
FRONT OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST...CLOUDY SKIES WOULD
BE IN PLACE. THIS WOULD MAKE THE INSTABILITY DIFFICULT TO REALIZE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HENCE THE USE OF THE WORD MESSY EARLIER.
TO SUM UP...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHAT EXACTLY TO EXPECT WITH
THIS SYSTEM JUST YET. AM HOPING LATER MODEL RUNS PAINT A CLEARER
PICTURE. HOWEVER...FOR NOW SCATTERED SHOWERS EVOLVING INTO A
ISOLATED DISCRETE SEVERE EVENT...EVENTUALLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE
WITH A PRIMARILY STRAIGHT LINE WIND THREAT IS THE BEST GUESS. CANT
RULE OUT A T WORD WITH THE HIGH HELICITY AND SHEAR BUT UNSETTLED
ON THE THERMODYNAMIC POTENTIAL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THAT.
AFTER THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISCREPANCY. THUS LEFT MOST OF
EXTENDED BEYOND MONDAY LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS TODAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING SATURDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...GOOD TRENDS ON THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK UP
TO .6 FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON`S DIP. VALUES NEAR .75 LATER TODAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. HRRR TRENDS KEEP MOST OF THE MEASURABLE
PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON WITH VERY LITTLE IN WESTERN AREAS
(WITH LIGHT SHOWERS BEING MORE COMMON). WIND VALUES IN THE 25-30KT
JUST ABOVE THE DECK ABOUT 2-4K FEET AGL...SHOULD MAKE IT TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY NOON OR SO...BREAKING EARLIER IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
FOCUS FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
SATURDAY...WITH COCHISE COUNTY RATHER GUSTY.
AFTER THE INITIAL MODEST ENERGY SHEARING THROUGH TONIGHT WE START TO
LOSE EVEN THAT MEAGER DYNAMICS WITH A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HANGING ON INTO SATURDAY. REINFORCING ENERGY SUNDAY MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH...PUSHING QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS AND
NOT DOING MUCH THIS FAR SOUTH.
GENERALLY DRY ZONAL FLOW THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A VERY
SLOW WARMING TREND AS WE SLOWLY PICK UP MORE INFLUENCE FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED WEST OF BAJA.
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH/MID CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH OVC CLOUDS AOA 12KFT AGL. ALSO WILL HAVE SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT 5-8K FT AGL THRU THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE
TUCSON AREA EAST. INCREASING SURFACE WIND DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH SLY/SWLY SURFACE WIND INCREASING TO 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 35-40 KTS THEN TAPERING OFF AFT 16/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORMALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG...RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
BY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
WITH TYPICAL WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM
TO 6 PM MST AZZ501>507-510-511-513>515
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST AZZ505.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
925 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...ADJUSTING WINDS UP NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJUSTING
FOR LESS CLOUD COVER. BOTH BASED ON REAL DATA.
.AVIATION...WINDS AT DIA SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT THROUGH TODAY. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM MST FRI NOV 15 2013/
SHORT TERM...A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN THE MTNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LAPSE
RATES IN THE 6-7 C/KM. AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE WITH LAPSE RATES BECOMING MORE STABLE SO SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE. 700 MB FLOW WILL BE SWLY WHICH WOULD FAVOR
PORTIONS OF ZNS 31 AND 33 FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. OVERALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
IN A FEW SPOTS THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY ABV 10000 FT HOWEVER SPEEDS WILL STAY BLO HIGH WIND
CRITERIA.
OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS. AFTN HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS NERN CO HOWEVER IF MID LVL CLOUDS HANG TOGETHER
CLOSER TO THE WY-CO BORDER ALL DAY READINGS MAY STAY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM...WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS
TIME AROUND. MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A PAIR OF FAST-MOVING TROUGHS
MOVING OVER THE STATE. ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
EVIDENT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM CONTAINING A LOT OF CLOUD COVER
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALSO OFFSHORE. MODEL QPF FIELDS FOR BOTH
SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PROBABLY OWING
TO THE RAPID SPEED WITH WHICH THE SYSTEMS CROSS OVER THE STATE.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS GOING TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL BE LIFTING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS FAST FLOW COULD HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL
IN THE MOUNTAINS A LITTLE BIT...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY WILL PRODUCE
QUITE A BIT OF WIND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPES. CROSS
SECTIOINS DO NOT SHOW A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED MOUNTAIN WAVE
STRUCTURE...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING TO COVER THIS WINDY PERIOD. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS
SHOW AN AWFUL LOT OF SUBSIDENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM 06Z
THROUGH 18Z ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL MAKE IT POSSIBLE FOR THE STRONG
WINDS TO MIX DOWNWARD OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK THINGS LOOK DRY AS ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. BY
THURSDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE POINTING TO A BIT MORE
TROUGHINESS OVER THE STATE WHICH COULD BRING A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AVIATION...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS. WINDS HAVE BEEN WSW EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE SLY BY 14Z. FOR THIS AFTN THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RAP AND THE HRRR WITH REGARDS TO WIND
DIRECTIONS. THE HRRR SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE WLY WHILE THE RAP HAS
A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT ENE BY 20Z WHICH LINGER THRU 00Z. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
PREVIOUS WND FCST IN PLACE WITH A MORE WLY DIRECTION. FOR THIS
EVENING WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME NWLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO DRAINAGE AFTER 03Z.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR COZ035>039.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
403 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1045 AM CST
UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SOME SLEET MIXED IN IN SPOTS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN FROM EARLY
TO MID MORNING AND HAD ALL DISSIPATED BY LATE MORNING AS THE
SE-NE ORIENTED BAND THAT OVER THE NEAR NORTH...NEAR WEST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST SUBURBS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS LOW COVERAGE PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE HIGHER PORTION OF THE LOW LAYERS UP
INTO THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MINOR DISTURBANCE
MOVING FROM EASTERN IA INTO NW AND N CENTRAL IL. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO N CENTRAL IL...AND INTO FAR NE IL AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSED.
TO THE SOUTH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...OR EVEN A SMALL CLOSED UPPER
LOW PER SATELLITE LOOPS...HAD MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN
OK TO THE IA-MO BOARDER DURING THE MORNING. WHILE THE LARGE AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS WELL SOUTH WITH THE CORRESPONDING BROAD
AREA OF RAIN WHERE THE STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SMALL UPPER LOW
ALSO WELL SOUTH EXTENDING ACROSS MICH OF MI NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN AND TO THE MID OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THERE WHERE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS AND AREA
OF FAIRLY WEAK LOWER UP TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE MID LEVELS. LOW
STRETCHES OF THE AND MID LEVEL UPGLIDE AND SATURATION FROM W
CENTRAL IL ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CW FA AND ONTO
THE NW CORNER OF IND MIDDAY INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN WEAKENING.
LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY THING BEYOND TRACE AMOUNTS FROM SOME
SPRINKLES OR A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER FORECASTS TO SHOW THE TIGHT TRANSITION
FROM CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
APPROXIMATELY NW QUARTER OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO BE SO HAVE LEFT MAX TEMPS
ALONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TRS
//PREV DISCUSSION...
855 AM CST
FORECAST BRIEFLY UPDATED TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE
PELLETS/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS HAS BEEN
ATTRIBUTED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD. INITIAL
REPORTS WERE OF LIGHT ICE PELLETS WITH THIS. USING THE TOP-DOWN
METHOD...IT APPEARED A LOW WET BULB BELOW CLOUD BASE SUPPORTED A
FREEZING OF THIS PRECIP. THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF ICE
PELLETS...BUT IT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORED TO BE LIGHT RAIN. NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY SW WINDS 15-19 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 23-28 KTS DURING THE DAY SAT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALLSOPP/MTF/07
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 20Z...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL IL TO MAINLY PASS
SE OF THE NE IL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH GETTING CLOSEST TO GYY
WHERE CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO 5K FT. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY IS PRODUCING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM DOWNTOWN CHICAGO TO PERU AIRPORT
AND HAVE PASSED SE OF ORD AND DPA. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 6-9K FT
TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND SCATTER OUT IN
NEXT FEW HOURS...LASTING LONGEST AT GYY WHERE CIRRUS DECKS MAY
LINGER INTO TONIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS OVER SE MO AND AR TO SPREAD NE INTO
NE IL BETWEEN 11-13Z SAT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING AFTER 16Z AT RFD AND SAT
AFTERNOON OVER THE CHICAGO AREA TAF SITES. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW GUSTS OF 15-19 KTS TO VEER SSE 7-9 KTS
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN BE SOUTH AND INCREASE BETWEEN 12-17 KTS AND
GUSTS INCREASING TO 23-28 KTS DURING SAT MORNING AFTER 14Z SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB...OFF THE NC COAST AT MIDDAY...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY HAS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CHICAGO METRO
SE AND THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING/DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...
EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO 15-19 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AGAIN AS INVERSION REDEVELOPS WITH SW WINDS
VEERING SSE AS WINDS DROP BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING SAT TO INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NE IL ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING FROM 12-17 KTS AND
WIND GUSTS INCREASING FROM 22-28 KTS AFTER 14Z SAT. THINK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING WILL BE FOCUSED SW OF NE IL AS
2-3K FT WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 2-3K FT WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS. THIS WILL ADVECT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARRIVING BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR BY MID SAT MORNING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON THOUGH COULD REACH RFD AS EARLY AS 17Z AND CHICAGO TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
ALLSOPP/07
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT OHARE/ORD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALLSOPP/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 18Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20-30 KT. MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AT 25-35 KT AND POSSIBLY UP TO
40 KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP/07
&&
.MARINE...
401 PM CST
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVES EAST... WHILE AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. AS MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES THEY WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS
MERGED LOW WILL THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS IOWA AND WISCONSIN TO EASTERLY UPPER MICHIGAN AND THEN
TOWARDS JAMES BAY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL SURPASS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SATURDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY
APPROACH GALE THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE IL AND IN
NEARSHORE WATERS. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE LAKE LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS WELL. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS TO
BELOW GALE FORCE MAY TAKE PLACE BEFORE WINDS VEER TO WEST AND
NORTHWEST SUNDAY FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE ONSET
OF COLDER AIR SURGING INTO THE AREA... WINDS MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE LAKE TO ANOTHER HIGH END GALE EVENT AND OCCASIONAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS. LATER FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED AS ATMOSPHERIC
COMPUTER MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THE LOW STRENGTH AND TRACK SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
ED F
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745...6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...NOON
SATURDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM
MONDAY.
&&
$$
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
245 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
Models coming into better agreement today with respect to timing
of dual system coming in this weekend.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday Night
Latest Satellite imagery confirms that partial clearing is likely
this afternoon and evening before lower clouds move in later
tonight. Will forecast a non-diurnal temperature trend with a low
during the period of clearing and then rising temperatures once
the clouds move in.
First shortwave of the weekend moves northwest of forecast area on
Saturday. Trainling cold front brings precip into western Illinois
by late morning and across most of the state by 00z. Best forcing
and shear remain across Iowa into Wisconsin. However most of the
forecast area should have at least chc pos except the extreme southeast.
The front gets hung up over Illinois Saturday Night and provides a
focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development as lapse
rates incr4ease as cold air aloft associated with the main wave
overrides the warmer southerly flow. bulk shear (0-6km) increases
overnight to over 70kts and may be further enhanced by the
boundary in place. Instability is lacking, but with that level of
shear it won`t take much for rotating cells and possible strong
wind gusts on the backside of the stronger storms.
For Sunday, 12z ECMWF and GFS now in much better agreement with
timing of second wave and associated cold front with the system
nearing the Illinois River by midday and then pushing very quickly
eastward during the afternoon. One big question is the lack of
deep moisture as indicated by time heights and forecast soundings.
This may prevent organization until the front gets into far
eastern Illinois. Again with shear values over 70 knots, it may
not take much instability to get strong winds to surface.
Whether organized line along the front or just a few broken cells,
either way the front will shoot across the state Sunday afternoon
strong subsidence will dry the atmosphere Sunday Night.
Very warm air being advected northward from the Gulf will be
tempered somewhat by clouds and precip. Models in good agreement
though with 850 mb temperatures rising into the double digits (C)
Saturday afternoon and then around 13-16C for Sunday. This
supports the current forecast of 60s Saturday and 60s and even
lower 70s Sunday. Temps drop off quickly after frontal passage
Sunday afternoon, but precip should be well east of forecast area
prior to air cold enough for a phase change.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday
Generally zonal flow in place before next southern stream wave
approaches toward the end of the week. Temperatures should be
slightly below normal Monday and Tuesday with a gradual warming
trend Wednesday and Thursday. Models diverge significantly after
that with GFS bringing clouds and a chance of precip in Thursday
Night and Friday with ECMWF keeping moisture south of the forecast
area. Will introduce a chance of precip Thursday Night and Friday
but the forecast is highly uncertain for that time period.
Barker
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
VFR conditions will continue through this evening, before MVFR
ceilings arrive later tonight into Saturday morning. Southerly
winds will bring increasing amounts of moisture northward into
the area over the next 24 hours. A weak upper-level disturbance
over the lower Mississippi River Valley is currently spreading
mid-level clouds across Illinois: however, these will begin to
clear from west to east across the area late this afternoon into
the evening. 17z/11am satellite imagery shows the clouds breaking
up across north-central Missouri, with satellite timing tools
bringing this partial clearing to KPIA and KSPI by around 21/22z.
Forecast soundings indicate mostly clear conditions this evening,
before better moisture and lower clouds arrive from the south
overnight. HRRR shows low clouds spreading northward after 05z,
with extrapolation suggesting MVFR ceilings of around 1500ft
arriving at the central Illinois terminals between 07z and 09z.
Southwesterly winds of 10 to 15kt this afternoon will decrease to
around 10kt tonight. As pressure gradient tightens, southerly
winds will increase markedly on Saturday, with gusts likely
exceeding 25kt. Showers associated with an approaching short-wave
will likely remain just west of the TAF sites until Saturday
afternoon: however, have included VCSH at KPIA after 15z in case
precip arrives sooner.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1205 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1045 AM CST
UPDATE FOR REST OF TODAY...NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
SOME SLEET MIXED IN IN SPOTS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN FROM EARLY
TO MID MORNING AND HAD ALL DISSIPATED BY LATE MORNING AS THE
SE-NE ORIENTED BAND THAT OVER THE NEAR NORTH...NEAR WEST AND
FAR SOUTHWEST SUBURBS CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD.
THIS LOW COVERAGE PRECIP WAS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE HIGHER PORTION OF THE LOW LAYERS UP
INTO THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MINOR DISTURBANCE
MOVING FROM EASTERN IA INTO NW AND N CENTRAL IL. DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE HAS LEAD TO A DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO N CENTRAL IL...AND INTO FAR NE IL AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSED.
TO THE SOUTH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE...OR EVEN A SMALL CLOSED UPPER
LOW PER SATELLITE LOOPS...HAD MOVED EAST-NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN
OK TO THE IA-MO BOARDER DURING THE MORNING. WHILE THE LARGE AREA
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS WELL SOUTH WITH THE CORRESPONDING BROAD
AREA OF RAIN WHERE THE STRONG LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SMALL UPPER LOW
ALSO WELL SOUTH EXTENDING ACROSS MICH OF MI NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN TN AND TO THE MID OH VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THERE WHERE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL IL TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA SHOWS AND AREA
OF FAIRLY WEAK LOWER UP TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE MID LEVELS. LOW
STRETCHES OF THE AND MID LEVEL UPGLIDE AND SATURATION FROM W
CENTRAL IL ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CW FA AND ONTO
THE NW CORNER OF IND MIDDAY INTO EARLY EVENING AND THEN WEAKENING.
LIMITING FACTOR TO ANY THING BEYOND TRACE AMOUNTS FROM SOME
SPRINKLES OR A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER FORECASTS TO SHOW THE TIGHT TRANSITION
FROM CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
APPROXIMATELY NW QUARTER OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK
TO BE ON TRACK WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO BE SO HAVE LEFT MAX TEMPS
ALONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
855 AM CST
FORECAST BRIEFLY UPDATED TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE
PELLETS/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS HAS BEEN
ATTRIBUTED TO SUBTLE MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVING OVERHEAD. INITIAL
REPORTS WERE OF LIGHT ICE PELLETS WITH THIS. USING THE TOP-DOWN
METHOD...IT APPEARED A LOW WET BULB BELOW CLOUD BASE SUPPORTED A
FREEZING OF THIS PRECIP. THERE MAY CONTINUE TO BE BRIEF ICE
PELLETS...BUT IT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORED TO BE LIGHT RAIN. NO
CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN IFR-MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY SW WINDS 15-19 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 22-28 KTS DURING THE DAY SAT.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFENCE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALLSOPP/MTF/07
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL IL TO MAINLY PASS
SOUTH OF THE NE IL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH GETTING CLOSEST TO GYY.
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER MID/LOWER MS VALLEY IS PRODUCING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG AND SE OF A LINE FROM NORTH SIDE OF CHICAGO TO DUPAGE TO
GALESBURG SE AT MIDDAY. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OF 6-9K FT TO CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SE DURING EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND SCATTER OUT IN NEXT FEW HOURS...
LASTING LONGEST AT GYY WHERE CIRRUS DECKS MAY LINGER INTO TONIGHT.
MVFR CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN MO TO SPREAD NE INTO NE IL BETWEEN 11-13Z SAT
WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON...THOUGH GETTING NEAR RFD BY 17Z SAT. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH FEW GUSTS OF 15-18 KTS TO VEER SSE 7-9 KTS BY SUNSET
AND THEN BE SOUTH AND INCREASE BETWEEN 12-17 KTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO
22-28 KTS DURING SAT MORNING AFTER 14Z.
DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB...OFF THE NC COAST AT MIDDAY...WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY HAS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CHICAGO METRO
SE AND THESE CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUNSHINE APPEARING/DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...
EXPECT A FEW GUSTS TO 15-19 KT THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AGAIN AS INVERSION REDEVELOPS WITH SW WINDS
VEERING SSE AS WINDS DROP BELOW 10 KTS TONIGHT. STRONG SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING SAT TO INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NE IL ALONG WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING FROM 12-17 KTS AND
WIND GUSTS INCREASING FROM 22-28 KTS AFTER 14Z SAT. THINK LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING WILL BE FOCUSED SW OF NE IL AS
2-3K FT WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 30-40 KTS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM 2-3K FT WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KTS. THIS WILL ADVECT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CIGS ARRIVING BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR BY MID SAT MORNING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SAT
AFTERNOON THOUGH COULD REACH RFD AS EARLY AS 17Z AND CHICAGO TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
ALLSOPP/07
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT ORD SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALLSOPP/MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 18Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20-30 KT. MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS AT 25-35 KT AND POSSIBLY UP TO
40 KTS WITH THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR LIKELY AND IFR POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MVFR CIG POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP/07
&&
.MARINE...
205 AM CST
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IN STORE FOR LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A COUPLE PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED. LARGE
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
MORNING WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
INTO MINNESOTA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
SOUTHERLY GALES FOR THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE...MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST LOW WINDS
MAY EASE A BIT SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER A SECOND LOW WILL FORM IN THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TO NORTH OR CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SUNDAY EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 KNOTS
SUNDAY...BUT A PERIOD OF GALES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SECOND LOW...SO WILL HOLD ON TO GALE WATCH AS IS...JUST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NOW...BUT WATCH/WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A PERIOD OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
GALES IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A QUIETER
PATTERN TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH OFFSHORE WINDS...DONT ANTICIPATE A GALE WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS...UNTIL POSSIBLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS OVER
LAND MAY BE GUSTING TO NEAR 35 KTS.
ALLSOPP
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1152 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 901 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
A short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over
the mid/lower Mississippi River Valley is creating enough synoptic
lift across the region to produce plenty of mid-level cloudiness.
Despite a 12z KILX upper air sounding showing very dry air below
700mb, a few sprinkles/light showers have been reported across the
W/SW CWA around Jacksonville and Springfield. Radar returns are
moving to the NE, so expect scattered sprinkles across much of the
area for the remainder of the morning and perhaps lingering into
the early afternoon across the far E/NE. Have updated forecast to
significantly increase cloud cover and add morning sprinkles. Mild
afternoon highs in the lower to middle 50s still look good. Zone
update has already been issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
VFR conditions will continue through this evening, before MVFR
ceilings arrive later tonight into Saturday morning. Southerly
winds will bring increasing amounts of moisture northward into
the area over the next 24 hours. A weak upper-level disturbance
over the lower Mississippi River Valley is currently spreading
mid-level clouds across Illinois: however, these will begin to
clear from west to east across the area late this afternoon into
the evening. 17z/11am satellite imagery shows the clouds breaking
up across north-central Missouri, with satellite timing tools
bringing this partial clearing to KPIA and KSPI by around 21/22z.
Forecast soundings indicate mostly clear conditions this evening,
before better moisture and lower clouds arrive from the south
overnight. HRRR shows low clouds spreading northward after 05z,
with extrapolation suggesting MVFR ceilings of around 1500ft
arriving at the central Illinois terminals between 07z and 09z.
Southwesterly winds of 10 to 15kt this afternoon will decrease to
around 10kt tonight. As pressure gradient tightens, southerly
winds will increase markedly on Saturday, with gusts likely
exceeding 25kt. Showers associated with an approaching short-wave
will likely remain just west of the TAF sites until Saturday
afternoon: however, have included VCSH at KPIA after 15z in case
precip arrives sooner.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 323 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
High pressure sliding off the east coast and southerly return flow
pushing warmer air and plenty of moisture into the region,
essentially loading the atmosphere ahead of the next system
developing over the western half of the country. An active weekend
on tap for the Midwest as a low pressure system develops rapidly
over ILX. Showers and thunderstorms expected on Saturday and
Sunday...with best severe weather potential Sunday afternoon.
System will be moving quickly in rather progressive flow across
the country. Models are in decent agreement overall, though the
GFS remains the quick solution, with the NAM speeding up to join
the GFS, and the ECMWF lagging behind. In all fairness, the ECMWF
still maintains a neutral tilt to the synoptic trof up to mid day
Sunday and the development would be a little slower overall.
Forecast trending to the quicker solutions, and precip clearing
by the first of the week.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Temps a couple more degrees today, warming into the lower 50s for
most of the area with breezy southerly winds keeping the warm air
moving into the Midwest. Warming trend continues through the
overnight and into tomorrow, though the increasing moisture will
keep partly cloudy today...increasing through the night and
towards morning with the approach of the next system. Waves ahead
of the developing main sfc low ripple through the southwesterly
flow aloft as the synoptic trof digs out over the SW. Precip
chances start to spread over the area for Saturday and Saturday
night. Starting to mention a slight chance for thunder on Saturday
night as the upper level dynamics get going. Best chances,
however, will be on Sunday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
Models tightening up on the timing of the front and main sfc low
Sun afternoon/evening, even with the ECMWF starting to catch up.
Faster solution was the winner with the last system, and seems to
be the consensus for this one as well in quite progressive flow
across the country. NAM/GFS both going negative tilt with the wave
aloft, which is reflected in the more explosive development of the
low. The system ramps up almost overhead and the chance for severe
weather will be a very quick window of opportunity with the possibility for
rapid development. This system will be moving fast. That being
said, plenty of warm and wet conditions out ahead of the cold
front and upper level dynamics providing plenty of lift. Severe
threat already in the Day 3, mainly east of Interstate 55. With
diffluence aloft ahead of front and depth and strength of vertical
shear, will have to watch preceding activity closely. Previous
showers/thunderstorms may limit instability in the boundary
layer ahead of the front. For now, going ahead and putting in
categorical pops east of I55 for Sun afternoon.
System should clear out quickly and cooler airmass recovering over
the region for the start of the work week. Temperatures returning
to more seasonal conditions with a dry forecast through next week.
HJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
303 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
On Friday afternoon, an upper trough was located over southern
California and Nevada while a series of weaker lead short wave
troughs were moving through fairly fast west southwest flow aloft
from the four counters into the western Plains. At the surface, low
pressure was deepening in eastern Colorado with intensifying
pressure gradient and southerly flow from southern Texas through the
Dakotas. A pool of quality low level moisture was in place across
northeast Texas and moving into eastern Oklahoma. As the lee surface
low continues to deepen overnight, expect a strong low level jet to
transport this moisture into eastern Kansas with a west to east
gradient while a strong elevated mixed layer and warm advection
builds above the moist boundary layer. The moist advection will
likely occur after a fairly quick evening cool down owing to mostly
clear skies, and the influx of moisture into cooler air along with
fairly strong ascent overnight and dry air aloft may contribute to
periods of drizzle during the early morning hours. There are also
some indications of moistening around 10 thousand feet which may
lead to weak elevated instability and at least some potential for a
few showers given the magnitude of lift. Winds at the surface will
also increase through the night as the pressure gradient strengthens.
Any light shower activity and drizzle will likely come to an end by
late Saturday morning as boundary layer mixing increases and
elevated capping increases. As mixing increases, the low level jet
will begin to mix gusts to the surface. The LLJ is forecast to have
50+ kt winds at 2500 feet AGL which would easily translate 45+ mph
wind gusts to the surface on a clear day, but the stratus deck may
be sufficient to limit overall mixing a bit, and by the time
clearing is forecast to occur, the LLJ will have weakened a bit. The
main question today is whether the depth of mixing will matter given
the strength of winds even 1500 feet AGL and the very strong late
morning pressure gradient. For now, have not issued a wind advisory,
but could certainly see the need to do so if future model guidance
suggests the 12Z NAM and recent RAP runs that highlight an even
stronger low level wind field. It`s a low confidence wind forecast
at this time that could result in peak gusts somewhere between 40
mph and 55 mph, with the strongest winds focused in east central KS.
By late afternoon, another lead short wave will approach the area.
At least partial afternoon clearing should have occurred with
temperatures in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the upper 50s. While
a strong capping inversion will be in place for much of the day, it
appears that the incoming trough will help cool the cap such that
afternoon CINH may decrease into the 10 to 50 J/KG range for a short
period between roughly 3 PM and 7 PM before rapidly increasing
again. Higher Res model guidance suggests MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000
J/KG range during this period while 0-6 km shear is 40 to 60 kts.
While these conditions would normally suggest some potential for a
few strong storms, the primary limiting factor...even with the
incoming short wave trough...is a general lack of any meaningful
surface convergence with the southwesterly low level wind field. The
lack of low level forcing along with a lopsided shear/CAPE balance
suggests it will be difficult to sustain any updrafts. At this time,
will maintain a slight chance of thunderstorms in the eastern parts
of KS generally east of Marysville to Burlington, and if one should
develop it would warrant an attentive eye.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
By Saturday evening as the boundary layer begins to cool the
southwesterly low level jet increases which will ultimately
strengthen the capping inversion. The increasing low level jet
during the evening forces drier air into the lower levels. If an
elevated storm is able to form after sunset the dry air intrusion
should hinder any persistence. All of these factors should work
against any sustained storm threat across the area...therefore went
with a dry forecast after 00z Sun. Gusty winds continue for the
southeast half of the cwa and especially southeast of the turnpike
overnight Saturday into Sunday. Low temperatures range from the mid
40s in north central KS to the mid 50s in east central KS.
On Sunday morning the main upper level trough axis passes through
the region as well as the associated cold front. The cold front
should clear the area by 15z Sun with a significant drop in dew
points following the passage. Behind the main trough axis
northwesterly flow increases in response to the deepening pressure
field across the upper Midwest as the system becomes negatively
tilted. Forecast soundings show most locations mixing between 800 to
700 mb especially across central KS where dew points are lower. Red
flag criteria is possible Sunday during the day across the western
portions of the area with winds gusting to around 35 mph in
combination with the low relative humidity. Less certain is the
effect cooler air behind the front has on temperatures and how low
the dew points get Sunday afternoon determining min RH. Therefore
did not issue any headlines and will let later shifts evaluate the
latest guidance. High temperatures on Sunday look to reach the upper
50s to low 60s.
In the wake of that system dry northwest mid level flow sets up for
the central US allowing surface high pressure to build into the
region. Winds should begin to decrease Sunday evening with a
relatively calm day in store for Monday. The mid level flow quickly
transitions to a zonal pattern and return flow develops as the high
pressure retreats then the models really start to disagree by mid
week. The 12z ECMWF/GEM suggesting precip chances by Wed as a
shortwave pushes a front through the region, but this lacks any
consistency at this point therefore kept the forecast dry. Although
the better chances for precip appear to be on Thurs and Fri as a
trough approaches from the west coast. The evolution of that system
and the associated surface features is unknown. Have added the
possibility of snow Thurs night and Friday which is advertised by
the 12z ECMWF but confidence is pretty low. Through the extended
temperatures remain near average with highs in the 50s and lows in
the 30s with a cooling trend late in the period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
Intensifying low pressure over the next 24 hours will bring
increasing wind speeds and a surge of moisture. This moisture
should result in IFR, or even LIFR ceilings at TAF sites, with an
expected arrival time between 05Z and 08Z and persisting through
14Z or so with a gradual lift to broken MVFR cigs. Is also some
potential for reduced vis with the moisture surge with a small
chance for 1/2SM or less, and even some dz or shra. MHK will be
on the western fringe of the moisture, with less confidence in the
ceilings building overhead. If so, will see persistent IFR but if
not, should have VFR through the TAF. South winds will increase
steadily from 00Z through 18Z with gusts to 35 kts or greater
possible by late Saturday morning.
Barjenbruch
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1254 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA... KEEPING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM FRIDAY...
UPDATE AT 1245 PM: HIGH CLOUDS ARE DOING LITTLE TO IMPEDE HEATING
AND OBSERVED TEMPS WERE OUTPACING FORECAST TEMPS LATE THIS
MORNING... SO HAVE ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS UPWARD TO 61-68. -GIH
FAST MID/HIGH LEVEL SW FLOW AND A PROMINENT APPROACHING WAVE IS
CAUSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD NC... AND THE DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS JUST ON OUR DOORSTEP... NOTED WELL BY THE CONTRASTING
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM CHS AND GSO. MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN FURTHER WITH
HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING WITH INCREASING LIFT AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES THE LOWER MISS VALLEY AND APPROACHES
NC LATER TODAY. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS JUST ISOLATED PATCHY
SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL/SRN SC INTO NE GA... WHICH THE HRRR BRINGS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON... BUT THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL GIVEN HOW SHALLOW AND WEAKLY FORCED
THEY SHOULD BE. WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 5 PM (ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR/RAP WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH THE CURRENT TEMPORAL TRENDS OF THE UPSTREAM
FORCING)... EXISTING RAIN CHANCE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD... BRINGING
CHANCE POPS INTO THE SW CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON... EXPANDING ENE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS ARE QUITE TRICKY CONSIDERING THAT
THESE HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING ARE STILL ALLOWING SOME FILTERED
SUNSHINE. CURRENT READINGS ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PACE... AND THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST GRIDDED LAMP FORECAST
GUIDANCE... SO WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS AT MOST TO CURRENT HIGHS
FROM 55 SW TO 63 EAST. -GIH
BY THE EVENING...AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OWING TO THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT BRIEF TAP OF GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.0-1.25"...DPVA ALONG WITH THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/FRIDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS...NWP MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED WITH ITS WETTER TREND...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST
AVERAGING AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER THE CAROLINAS LARGELY DUE
TO A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SE COAST. GIVEN SUCH GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL INTRODUCE CATEGORICAL POPS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...RAIN AND LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL RESULT IN A MUCH
MILDER NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST. -CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT /...
AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY
WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT THEREAFTER.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND GENERALLY
EAST-SELY. WHILE MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK...WITH NO MEANS TO SCOUR THE LEFT-OVER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...SKIES WILL LOOK OMINOUS THE ENTIRE DAY WITH PREDOMINATELY
BROKEN MVFR CEILING BETWEEN 2-3KT PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...EVOLVING ESSENTIALLY INTO A DRY IN-SITU LIKE CAD. EXPECT THE
WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OFFSET THE CLOUD COVER
ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S...POSSIBLY
MID 60S IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 238 AM FRIDAY...
LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES/MOISTURE EXPECTED THIS WEEK...
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN MOIST AND MILD... WITH STRATUS... FOG AND MIST...
COURTESY OF THE RESIDUAL PIEDMONT IN-SITU DAMMING AND LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE
LATE SUNDAY ALLOWING THE WARMER AIR TO FINALLY REACH THE SURFACE.
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE SANDHILLS...
COASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN PIEDMONT. HOWEVER... THE TRIAD MAY END UP
REMAINING CLOUDY ALL DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING LATE
IN THE DAY FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
BREAKS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THEREFORE... EXPECT THE WARMER READINGS
FROM THE SANDHILLS THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE MANY LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE 70 OR THE LOWER 70S. TO THE NW... FROM RALEIGH TO
GREENSBORO... EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 60S. DEW POINTS WILL BE
ON THE RISE... WITH HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC BY 12Z/MONDAY IN
THE FAR NW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THE MILD/MOIST AIR MASS OUT AND REPLACE IT
AGAIN WITH ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN. THE DYNAMICS WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF ANY SECONDARY WAVE ON THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE THE QPF. EVEN THOUGH
A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY... QPF IS ONLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.25. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SPEED UP THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 18Z/MONDAY... WITH CLEARING IN THE
NW PIEDMONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
SE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SENSIBLE WEATHER... MILD TO WARM SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING... THEN
CLEARING... BREEZY AND TURNING COLDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. EARLY
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S... FALLING INTO THE 50S WEST AND
LOWER 60S EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND COLDER MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY. LOWS IN THE 30S. HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY
50-55.
WED-THU... STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD/EXTEND
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANY INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL MODIFICATION LATE WEEK. LOWS 25-30. HIGHS
47-52 WED... AND 50-55 THU.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY...
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
18Z SAT. ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
CENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (BETWEEN NOW AND AND 23Z) FROM
THE WSW... WITH CIGS FALLING FIRST TO MVFR (THIS HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT INT/GSO). LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WSW MAINLY
AFTER 22Z (ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN) WITH
VSBYS BECOMING MAINLY MVFR IN RAIN... AND RAIN WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AT INT/GSO AND AT FAY... WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE AT
RDU/RWI. ONCE THE RAIN EXITS FROM WSW TO ENE... WHICH SHOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z... CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR WITH IFR
VSBYS IN FOG/STRATUS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS THICK STRATUS WILL THEN
LIFT SLOWLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z TO MVFR (WHILE VSBYS IMPROVE TO
VFR).
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT... MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF SAT AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VARIABLE SURFACE FLOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET WILL PROMPT
REDEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE-BASED INVERSION AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VFR VSBYS
EXPECTED LATE SUN MORNING LASTING THROUGH AFTERNOON... THEN ANOTHER
RETURN TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT WITH BRISK/GUSTY
SW WINDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY SHOULD INTRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATE MON LASTING THROUGH
WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...PWB
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
114 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
VIS SAT SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CWA...WITH EXCEPTION OF
SOME LINGERING STRATUS OVER PARTS OF BELTRAMI COUNTY. MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE GOING CLEAR SKIES FOR REMAINDER OF AM
AND INTO THE AFTN...THEN TIMING IN CLOUDS OVER SD. ALSO HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS FOR THIS AFTN FOR SAME REASONING I REMOVED THEM
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A DECENT OMEGA FIELD WITH COLUMN SATURATED IN
THE MID LEVELS...HOWEVER A VERY DRY LAYER IN THE 925 TO 850 LAYER.
SATURATED LAYER WOULD INDICATE SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS THROUGH
THE WARM/DRY LAYER BENEATH...AND DO NOT SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP AT
THE SFC. SINCE THIS PERIOD HAS FLIP FLOPPED SEVERAL TIMES...DID
KEEP IN SPRINKLES FOR THOSE AREAS. NOTE THE NAM DOES SHOW LOWER
MID LEVEL CIGS THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN...AND NOW THE 300 K
ISENTROPIC LAYER IS WHERE SATURATED CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS BEGIN AS OPPOSED TO THE 305 K ON YESTERDAYS RUN. SO THE
NAM IS SATURATING COLUMN CLOSER TO SFC THAN THE GFS...WHICH HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAYS RUN. HAVE ALSO CHANGED FROM RAIN
TO DRIZZLE POPS IN THE EAST AFT 06Z (SAME REASONING AS YESTERDAY).
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
FOG IN VALLEY CITY TO COOPERSTOWN AREA OTHERWISE PATCHY FOG THAT
WAS AROUND TVF/CKN HAS MOVED OUT. STARTING OFF PRETTY CLEAR IN ALL
BUT A FEW AREAS IN NRN MN...SO WILL ADJUST SKY COVER. LATEST HRRR
STILL SHOWS A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP VERY LATE TODAY IN SE ND SO WILL
KEEP THAT LOW POP. BUT OTHERWISE GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND HRRR SHOWS
LOW 50S IN SW FCST WITH UPPER 40S IN THE RRV AND LOWER TO MID 40S
IN BAUDETTE REGION WHICH IS CLOSE TO GOING FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
LOW CLOUD COVER EXITING THE NRN FCST AREA AT 09Z WITH AREAS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS REPLACING IT. BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS FOR LESS CLOUD
COVER. MAINLY CLEAR DVL-GFK-PKD SOUTHWARD AND THERE IS SOME PATCHY
FOG. EXPECT A FAIRLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS
THE FAR NORTH...AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 8 TO 13 KT
RANGE. MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL SD 18Z FRI THEN IT SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO SE ND BY 00Z AND THEN INTO NRN MN THIS EVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE THAT MAY
OCCUR WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AREA SEEMS TO BE AIDED BY THE
NRN EDGE OF THE 850 MB JET TOWARD 00Z OVER SE ND INTO PARTS OF NRN
MN.
MILD DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S EVEN SOME LOW 50S PSBL
SW FCST AREA.
QUIET TONIGHT...BUT GFS/NAM MOS AND 925 MB RH SHOWS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND PSBL LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING NORTH IN LOW LEVEL JET
THRU PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO SE FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. REGULATED ANY SMALL CHC OF LIGHT RAIN TO ERN
FCST AREA IN THIS MOISTURE REGIME. ANOTHER MILD DAY THOUGH NOT AS
WARM IN SOME AREAS DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. BUT STILL HIGHS IN
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS COMPLEX BUT OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL. ALL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF MAIN SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL DIVE INTO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DOWN THE FRONT
RANGE...EDGING INTO NW-NCNTRL ND SAT NIGHT. TO SOME DEGREE...LOOKS
LIKE A DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE SD INTO NRN MN SAT EVE
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIP WEST OF THIS LOW OVER ERN ND INTO
NW MN AS SAT NIGHT PROGRESSES. THEN THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO WRN ONTARIO AND MAIN COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THRU
THE THE FCST AREA DAYTIME SUNDAY. PTYPE WOULD INDICATE INITIALLY
RAIN...THEN BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO MAX IN NW MN
WHERE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN. BEST CHC OF
THIS TVF-ROX-BDE-BJI REGION. ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE AREA SUN AFTN-EVE. OVERALL THOUGH AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
IS LESS THAN ADVERTISED A FEW DAYS AGO...SO NOTHING LIKE THE
DEPARTURES EXPERIENCED WITH THE LAST OUTBREAK.
FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS
FROM NORTHERN CANADA TO THE US ROCKIES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN US BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING VERY WELL THIS PERIOD. AT 84 HOURS THE ECMWF
HAD A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
180 DEGREES OUT OF PHASE ON WED. GFS ENSEMBLE, OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW THIS PERIOD COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS RUNS. ON WED, BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
SHIFTING COOLER AIR SOUTH EACH RUN TO SUPPORT THE ZONAL PATTERN.
LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THIS MAY
CHANGE IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
FAST FLOW PATTERNS.
HIGH TEMPS TWEAKED UP OR DOWN A DEGREE OR SO THIS PERIOD. LOWS
INCREASED ABOUT TWO DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS RUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME MID CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES FOR
THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WON/T MENTION ANY PRECIP.
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD GUST UP TO NEAR 20 KT NEAR KDVL/KGFK THIS
AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20KT FOR
THE MOST PART.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...HOPPES/RIDDLE
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
232 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS INCLUDE CHANCES FOR ANY
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND WIND ADVISORY PROSPECTS FOR SATURDAY. AGREE
WITH WFO LUBBOCK AS THE HRRR AND EVEN THE RUC SHOWING PRECIP MOVING
NORTH AND EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
MAINLY PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE
AFTER 00Z AND 03Z SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER...BUT WILL INTRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MAY PUT A DAMPER ON MIXING THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AFTER
15Z TO 17Z SATURDAY...HOWEVER AGREE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY
BE MET ON THE CAPROCK BY 18Z SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH
ENOUGH ON TIMING AND LOCATION TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
FEEL THAT A NARROW WINDOW OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE BETWEEN
ABOUT 17Z AND 21Z SATURDAY...WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATING POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING ANY POPS IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL BUMP UP POPS TO AROUND 10 PERCENT OR SO.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
BUT STILL REMAINING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
20 FOOT DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MID TO
LATE MORNING TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH ONLY
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...THE STRONG
WINDS ALONE MAY JUSTIFY ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS EITHER THE MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 PERCENT OR THE 20
FOOT WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20 MPH.
SCHNEIDER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 45 71 42 66 32 / 20 0 0 0 0
BEAVER OK 46 74 38 61 27 / 5 0 0 5 0
BOISE CITY OK 42 69 34 62 28 / 5 0 0 5 0
BORGER TX 53 75 45 62 35 / 10 0 0 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 46 71 41 66 31 / 20 0 0 5 0
CANYON TX 44 72 40 70 31 / 20 0 0 0 0
CLARENDON TX 50 74 46 68 35 / 20 0 0 0 0
DALHART TX 41 68 32 62 26 / 5 0 0 5 0
GUYMON OK 46 75 38 62 29 / 5 0 0 5 0
HEREFORD TX 43 71 40 68 30 / 20 0 0 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 48 75 43 63 29 / 5 0 0 5 0
PAMPA TX 48 71 43 62 34 / 10 0 0 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 49 77 46 69 33 / 20 0 0 5 0
WELLINGTON TX 49 80 47 71 35 / 20 0 0 5 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
334 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
RAIN MOVING IN SATURDAY AND POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH WAS
TAKING PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. A WEAKER
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL/SURFACE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WS NOTED MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAS PRODUCING
SCATTERED/HIGH-BASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS A PORTION OF
SOUTHEAST ND/NORTHEAST SD. OTHERWISE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION WAS LEADING TO FAIRLY MILD AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS OUR AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THAT TROUGH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/CENTRAL PLAINS MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOWING INCREASING 285-
290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN TOWARD DAYBREAK.
RAIN WILL RAPIDLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE SQUARELY INTO THE REGION.
NAM ALSO DEPICTING 0-3KM ML MUCAPE INCREASING INTO THE 500-700J/KG
RANGE BY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MILDER AIR IN PLACE WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
APPEARS THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTION SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN PICKING UP A AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER MN. IN FACT...THE NAM IS
PRODUCING 0-3KM MUCAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE IN THE 09-12Z TIME
FRAME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI IN THE
WARM SECTOR JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALSO
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE IN THE 35-45KT RANGE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
LOCALLY STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
315 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING THROUGH
SUNDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
APPEARS ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WOULD BE CONFINED TO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THEN WANE AS BETTER INSTABILITY/DYNAMIC SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE
50S...THEN SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW AS IT
MOVES NORTH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LITTLE IF
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING AROUND
1/10 OF AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS TO DRAW IN COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIVING INTO THE 20S.
COLD/BLUSTERY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE 30S.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET PERIOD. PLAN ON HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO AROUND 40 AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES ALONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT
AROUND SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
GFS AND ECMWF A BIT AT ODDS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF WANTS TO BUILD A SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE AREA WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STICK WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MAKE
RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE
POINT THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECOMES A POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF
SITES. THE 15.12Z NAM AND 15.15Z RAP BOTH SHOW THE WINDS BETWEEN
1500 AND 2000 FEET INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE INCLUSION OF THE WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
RAPIDLY BRING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AND THIS LOOKS TO FORM
MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
START TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB JET. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE INTRODUCED THIS BY MID
MORNING. AS THE MOISTURE AND RAIN CONTINUES...EXPECT TO SEE THE
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO GO DOWN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE IF THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS POINT...SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1125 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
305 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
QUIET END TO THE WORK WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
SNIFF THE 50 DEGREE MARK...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE MID NOV
NORMALS.
SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...PER LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DON/T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT WITH LIGHT
SFC/NEAR SFC WINDS...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OBS/CONDITIONS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
305 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SPIN EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...SWINGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON SAT. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/EC ON THIS. A SHOT OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE SHORTWAVE...WITH A BIT OF QG
CONVERGENCE...MOSTLY IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. GOOD PUNCH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET NOSING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. NAM EVEN HINTS AT SOME INSTABILITY...WITH ABOUT
200-400 J/KG OF MUCAPE FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS SHOULD
SPARK IN RESPONSE TO THE FORCING/ENOUGH SATURATION...AND COULD SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE HIGHER PCPN THREAT
WILL LIE VIA THE GFS/NAM...BUT BOTH AGREE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON SAT...WITH THAT AREA MOVING NORTHEAST DURING
THE EVENING.
DEEPER/STRONGER TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PAC NW...DRIVE ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM/S SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN WI BY 18Z SUN...CONTINUING ITS NORTHEAST TRACK INTO CANADA
LATE SUN NIGHT. QG CONVERGENCE MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH THAN
WITH THE SATURDAY SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-300 MB LAYER.
GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND SOME HELP FROM THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB JET. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...AND PROBABLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE NAM IS A BIT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST IN ITS
MOVEMENT...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUN. THE GFS/EC HOLDS OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z AND TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE. LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS/EC. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO POSE MUCH OF A SNOW
THREAT.
ALL IN ALL...A WET WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE SLATED TO BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT/TUE...WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TAKING ON A MORE ZONAL LOOK THROUGH THU. THE EC FAVORS A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH THU. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WOULD BRING
A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY/LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME PCPN
CHANCES FOR TUE NIGHT/WED.
THE GFS CONTINUES MORE ACTIVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW COMPARED TO THE
EC...SLIDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THU. A SWATH OF PCPN RESULTS VIA THE
GFS. THE EC HAS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT NOT THE OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY SPINNING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT DOES HAVE THE SFC FRONT...BUT WITH
OUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...DOESN/T PRODUCE MUCH/IF ANY QPF ALONG
IT UNTIL POST THE BOUNDARY. EVEN THEN...ITS RELATIVELY LIGHT. WILL
LEAN ON THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MAKE
RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
TO THE POINT THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECOMES A POSSIBILITY AT
BOTH TAF SITES. THE 15.12Z NAM AND 15.15Z RAP BOTH SHOW THE WINDS
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 FEET INCREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE INCLUSION OF THE WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL RAPIDLY BRING THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AND THIS
LOOKS TO FORM MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING ALONG WITH
SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB
JET. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND HAVE
INTRODUCED THIS BY MID MORNING. AS THE MOISTURE AND RAIN
CONTINUES...EXPECT TO SEE THE CEILINGS CONTINUE TO GO DOWN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NOT SURE IF THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04