Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/14/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
819 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER
WYOMING AND COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER. AIRMASS IS DRY AT THE LOWER LEVELS. EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE LOW POPS FOR THIS. ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PULL COOLER AIR
INTO THE STATE AND RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8000 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TURN NORTHERLY AFTER 08Z AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013/
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY ACROSS COLORADO WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NEAREST
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING. SURFACE
LEE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN AND NEAR
FOOTHILLS. MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NORTHERN UTAH
AND WESTERN WYOMING THIS EVENING...THEN ACROSS WYOMING AND
NORTHERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. BEST LIFT AND MID LEVEL ASCENT TO BE
NORTH OF COLORADO. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL QG ASCENT. SHOULD SEE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS IN AREA OF BETTER MID LEVEL ASCENT. MAY SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AS THE MID
LEVEL ASCENT INCREASES. ACROSS PLAINS...LEE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DECREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALONG FOOTHILLS.
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY. LATEST MODELS...
INCLUDING THE RAP...HAVE BEEN SHOWING A BIT MORE OF A NORTHEAST
COMPONENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z WHEN THE BEST LIFT IS IN PLACE.
MODELS STILL INDICATING A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THOUGH THE
LATEST RAP HAS SHOWN SOME INCREASE. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE LOW
POPS FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD DENVER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ON THURSDAY...DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO
NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING
MOISTURE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NORTHWEST WITH IMPROVING
OROGRAPHICS...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LACK OF ASCENT...ANY
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE MORNING. ACROSS THE PLAINS...ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY DURING THE EARLY
MORNING WITH DECREASING LIFT...MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE. SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON. AIRMASS WILL BE COOLER WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED WITH AN LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO COLORADO
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE UPWARD ENERGY
IS PROGGED FOR THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WEAK
DOWNWARD MOTION FOLLOWS...THEN UPWARD ENERGY MOVES BACK IN BY 18Z
SATURDAY. THE UPWARD MOTION IS FAIRLY STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WINDS FIELDS SHOW TROUGHING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOUTHEASTERLIES TO
SOUTHWESTERLIES DOMINATE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...DOWNSLOPING
PREVAILS. FOR THE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
VARIOUS MODELS SET UP THE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO. THERE IS AN INVERTED TROUGH AND NO REAL UPSLOPE FROM ANY
OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW DECENT DRY
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN HALF
OF THE PLAINS. NOT GOOD FOR A DECENT SNOWFALL. FOR MOISTURE...
THERE IS NOT MUCH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON ANY OF
THE MODELS...DEFINITELY LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
MOISTURE INCREASES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE STAYS FAIRLY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS INCREASES OVER THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS IS POOR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE
QPF FIELDS BRING IN A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS MORE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO A TINY BIT OUT
ON THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT.
OROGRAPHIC-WISE...THE MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW IS MAINLY SOUTHWEST FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS. SO WILL GO WITH MAINLY "CHANCES" IN THE HIGH
THERE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 12Z. WILL GO
WITH "SLIGHT CHANCES"S OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL THE
MODELS SHOW THIS STORM TO HAVE DECREASED IN SIGNIFICANCE...
ALTHOUGH YOU CAN`T DISCOUNT THE UPWARD Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY. THE
MOISTURE IS POOR OUT ON THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY`S
HIGHS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN THURSDAY`S. SATURDAY`S ARE A BIT
COOLER THAN FRIDAY`S...BUT NOT MUCH. THE COLD AIR WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH DOESN`T COME IN UNTIL SUNDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE
CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. QUITE A CHANGE FROM THREE DAYS
AGO. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER SYNC WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES
OF THE STORM. THEY BOTH ALSO DRY THINGS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY ON
SUNDAY...SO WILL ADJUST SOMEWHAT IN ENDING THINGS QUICKER. THERE
ARE STILL SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS UNTIL WE SEE THE STORM. THE COLD
AIR ON SUNDAY IS NOT SIGNIFICANT EITHER. UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING AT KDEN AND KAPA WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KTS AT KBJC. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT KBJC
DURING THE EVENING THOUGH WILL REMAIN WESTERLY WHILE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AT KDEN AND KAPA. WINDS TO THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS AROUND 10Z...THEN NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KTS. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CEILINGS LOWERING TO
AROUND 9000 FEET AGL. AT THIS TIME...ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ALONG THE NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
CLOUDS TO DECREASE AFTER 16Z WITH DECREASING WINDS...BECOMING
EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...MEIER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2013
...Blast of Arctic Air to Arrive Later Today...
.NEAR TERM [Rest of Today]...
This morning, the local forecast area remains in a weak
spot in the surface pressure gradient between relatively lower
pressure in the Gulf and near the Bahamas, and an anomalously
strong high pressure center building south over the Central
Plains. The 12 UTC surface analysis showed a 1047-mb high centered
over eastern Nebraska. A strong cold front at the leading edge of
this airmass will reach our northwestern zones late in the day. We
remain far enough out ahead of the front that our highs should be
fairly warm, around seasonal normals in the lower to mid 70s. The
latest HRRR and local 4km WRF- ARW show the front arriving in the
northwest part of our area around 18-19 UTC, with temperatures
beginning to sharply fall between 20-00 UTC. Therefore, we did not
follow the usual diurnal temperature curve in all areas. The
frontal passage looks to be a dry one, with most of the effects
occurring behind the cold front. More on that below.
&&
.SHORT TERM [6 PM This Evening Through Thursday]...
Aforementioned arctic front will blow through the forecast area
this evening as a sharp upper trough digs into the Deep South. A
shallow, but much colder air mass will pour into the forecast area
tonight on very gusty northerly winds, as a 1040mb surface high
slides south to the Missouri Boot heel. Winds are expected to gust
to near 35 mph this evening as the cold air advection kicks in.
However, current forecast keeps the winds just below wind
advisory criteria (gusts 40mph or higher or sustained 26mph or
higher).
Outside of the wind, the other concern overnight will be the
potential for a light freeze for southeast Alabama. Statistical
guidance as well as most raw numerical guidance shows portions of
southeast Alabama dropping below 32 degrees for an hour or two
around sunrise. While a pure advection freeze would be somewhat
unusual for early November, the agreement in the guidance has
convinced me to go with a Freeze Watch tonight for southeast
Alabama. The next shift can refine the numbers and make the
decision on whether or not to upgrade to a Freeze Warning. With
temperatures approaching freezing in this area and the strong
northerly winds, wind chill values will reach the lower 20s as
well.
The intense low-level cold advection will continue through the day
on Wednesday as the surface high slides east to the southern
Appalachians. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon are unlikely
to get out of the 50s for all of the region, except perhaps a
portion of Dixie County.
For Wednesday night, the 1033mb surface high is forecast to settle
over the Carolina Piedmont, with the gradient relaxing for the
forecast area. This ridge position is not ideal for radiational
cooling in the TAE CWA. However, give the arctic nature of the
airmass, winds should diminish enough to allow for a widespread
light freeze away from the coast. Lows are generally expected to
be between 29 and 32, but a few colder values are possible in well
sheltered areas. Will issue a freeze watch for most of the area
away from the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Weak upper ridging returns on Thursday. The ridge slides east
Friday becoming centered over or just south of the Bahamas through
the weekend placing the local area in deep moist southwest flow.
The ridge is forecast to flatten Monday as the next trough moves
east from the Central Plains. A few embedded upper level
disturbances combined with increasing deep layer moisture will bring
an unsettled weather pattern with rain chances Friday through the
weekend. Then more rain is expected on Monday with the approach and
possible passage of the next cold front. After chilly mid week
temperatures, we will see a gradual warming trend through the
period. Min and max temps will be below seasonal levels through
Friday recovering to near or just above climo for the weekend and
the first day of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12 UTC Wednesday] VFR conditions should prevail through
this TAF cycle with mainly cirrus clouds overhead. NW-N winds will
increase in the afternoon behind a cold front. Most gusts will be
around 20-25 knots after 21 UTC, but peak gusts could reach as
high as 30-35 knots, especially in the evening (after 00 UTC). The
strong winds will prevent any visibility restrictions from
developing overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate rapidly late
this afternoon into the evening in the wake of a strong cold
front. Northerly 25- to 30-knot winds are expected by mid-evening
over the waters, with frequent gusts to gale force. The frequent
gusts to gale force necessitate a Gale Warning for the waters by
mid-evening lasting through early Wednesday morning. Thereafter,
a tight pressure gradient will keep Small Craft Advisory
conditions in place into much of Thursday. Conditions should
drop below headline levels by Friday into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels today will remain above critical levels,
but we should see gradually increasing winds and high dispersion
values. Fuels will continue to dry today. Over much of the area,
the last ten days have not had any wetting rains. Tomorrow
(Wednesday), a much drier air mass will surge into the area behind
a cold front. The combination of low relative humidity and breezy
winds could create red flag conditions over much of our Alabama
and Florida zones. Despite earlier concerns about ERC values in
Florida, the latest ERC forecast for today has all zones at least
at 24, and with another day of drying it`s at least conceivable
that any zones could reach the minimum threshold of 26 for red
flag criteria. Therefore, we expanded the Fire Weather Watch to
include all Florida zones. Relative humidity levels rebound
quickly by Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With minimal rain chances in the forecast, there will be no
hydrological concerns over the few several days. Scattered showers
will return to the forecast this weekend as we return to an
unsettled weather pattern. It will take a significant amount of
rain to cause any concerns on area rivers and that is not
currently anticipated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 76 40 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 74 40 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 72 32 54 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 73 33 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 76 38 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 76 42 60 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 75 42 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for all zones.
GA...FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for all zones.
AL...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
all zones.
FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for all zones.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH Wednesday afternoon for all zones.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for all zones.
GALE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
all zones.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Wool/Lamers
SHORT TERM/MARINE...Wool/Camp
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2013
...Blast of Arctic Air to Arrive Later Today...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Early this morning, the local forecast area remains in a weak
spot in the surface pressure gradient between relatively lower
pressure in the Gulf and near the Bahamas, and an anomalously
strong high pressure building south over the central Plains. The
result is relatively weak flow, and some locally dense fog has
developed in parts of south-central Georgia near Valdosta. This
will be monitored in case an advisory is needed. The main story
will be the approach of the strong cold front from the northwest
today. We remain far enough out ahead of the front currently such
that our highs should be fairly warm - around seasonal normals in
the mid-70s in most locations. The latest HRRR and local 4km WRF-
ARW show the front arriving in the northwest part of our area
around 18-19 UTC, with temperatures beginning to sharply fall
between 20-00 UTC. Therefore, we did not follow the usual diurnal
temperature curve in all areas. The frontal passage looks to be a
dry one, with most of the effects occurring behind the cold front.
More on that below.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Aforementioned arctic front will blow through the forecast area
this evening as a sharp upper trough digs into the Deep South. A
shallow, but much colder air mass will pour into the forecast area
tonight on very gusty northerly winds, as a 1040mb surface high
slides south to the Missouri Bootheel. Winds are expected to gust
to near 35 mph this evening as the cold air advection kicks in.
However, current forecast keeps the winds just below wind
advisory criteria (gusts 40mph or higher or sustained 26mph or
higher).
Outside of the wind, the other concern overnight will be the
potential for a light freeze for southeast Alabama. Statistical
guidance as well as most raw numerical guidance shows portions of
southeast Alabama dropping below 32 degrees for an hour or two
around sunrise. While a pure advection freeze would be somewhat
unusual for early November, the agreement in the guidance has
convinced me to go with a Freeze Watch tonight for southeast
Alabama. The next shift can refine the numbers and make the
decision on whether or not to upgrade to a Freeze Warning. With
temperatures approaching freezing in this area and the strong
northerly winds, wind chill values will reach the lower 20s as
well.
The intense low-level cold advection will continue through the day
on Wednesday as the surface high slides east to the southern
Appalachians. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon are unlikely
to get out of the 50s for all of the region, except perhaps a
portion of Dixie County.
For Wednesday night, the 1033mb surface high is forecast to settle
over the Carolina Piedmont, with the gradient relaxing for the
forecast area. This ridge position is not ideal for radiational
cooling in the TAE CWA. However, give the arctic nature of the
airmass, winds should diminish enough to allow for a widespread
light freeze away from the coast. Lows are generally expected to
be between 29 and 32, but a few colder values are possible in well
sheltered areas. Will issue a freeze watch for most of the area
away from the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Weak upper ridging returns on Thursday. The ridge slides east
Friday becoming centered over or just south of the Bahamas through
the weekend placing the local area in deep moist southwest flow.
The ridge is forecast to flatten Monday as the next trough moves
east from the Central Plains. A few embedded upper level
disturbances combined with increasing deep layer moisture will bring
an unsettled weather pattern with rain chances Friday through the
weekend. Then more rain is expected on Monday with the approach and
possible passage of the next cold front. After chilly mid week
temperatures, we will see a gradual warming trend through the
period. Min and max temps will be below seasonal levels through
Friday recovering to near or just above climo for the weekend and
the first day of next week.
&&
.AVIATION [through 06 UTC Wednesday]...
Despite high clouds encroaching on the area, some fog has developed
over SC-SE Georgia, with VLD roughly on the western periphery of the
area of fog. Latest observations have dipped below airfield minimums
(1/4SM visibility, and 100 foot CIGS). Therefore, we included a
temporary condition for dense fog through 11 UTC, although this may
need to be extended based on trends. At the other terminals, VFR
should prevail, and fog at VLD should dissipate by mid-morning. NW-N
winds will increase in the afternoon. Most gusts will be around
20-25 knots after 21 UTC, but peak gusts could reach as high as
30-35 knots - especially in the evening (after 00 UTC).
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate rapidly late
this afternoon into the evening in the wake of a strong cold
front. Northerly 30 knot winds are expected by mid-evening over
the waters, with frequent gusts to gale force. The frequent gusts
to gale force necessitate a Gale Warning for the waters by mid-
evening lasting through early Wednesday morning. Thereafter, a
tight pressure gradient will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions
in place into much of Thursday. Conditions should drop below
headline levels by Friday into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels today will remain above critical levels,
but we should see gradually increasing winds and high dispersion
values. Fuels will continue to dry today. Over much of the area,
the last ten days have not had any wetting rains. Tomorrow
(Wednesday), a much drier air mass will surge into the area behind
a cold front. The combination of low relative humidity and breezy
winds could create red flag conditions over much of our Alabama
and Florida zones. Despite earlier concerns about ERC values in
Florida, the latest ERC forecast for today has all zones at least
at 24, and with another day of drying it`s at least conceivable
that any zones could reach the minimum threshold of 26 for red
flag criteria. Therefore, we expanded the Fire Weather Watch to
include all Florida zones. Relative humidity levels rebound
quickly by Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With minimal rain chances in the forecast, there will be no
hydrological concerns over the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 76 40 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 74 40 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 72 32 54 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 73 33 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 76 38 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 76 42 60 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 75 42 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH Wednesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-South Walton-Washington.
FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland
Bay-Inland Jefferson-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
Madison-Washington.
GA...FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-
Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH Wednesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton
Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
GALE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Camp
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1257 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL RETURN IN
FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...THEN EXPECT A WARM UP AS WE ENTER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WEAKENING TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS EVENING/S SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS GETTING INTO THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LATEST RAP KEEPS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAK AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EAST PART. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...AND ALSO HAS IT MOVING THROUGH AS AN OPEN TROUGH
ALOFT INSTEAD OF TRYING TO CUT OFF A LOW. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN IS JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS NOW LOOKING AS IF IT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL LAG THE MAIN FRONT BY 12-24 HOURS
THOUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
BEFORE STEADYING OUT LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN RAPIDLY FALLING
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH HAS SPED UP
IN ALL THE MODELS ALSO...AND THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE
DIMINISHED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE FROM AROUND 12/22Z TO 13/04Z. DURING THIS
WINDOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. ALOFT...THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IF
ANY AT ALL...WHICH WOULD ALSO INDICATE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.
AFTER 13/06Z ...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPS RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 30S UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL MODERATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS
MAINLY TO OUR S AND E...MAY AFFECT OGB IN THE NEAR TERM BEFORE
PUSHING TO OUR EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SHIFTING AND
INCREASING WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT DECREASING WINDS EARLY WED. NO
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WED/THU AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THU NT/FRI. SOME CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THU NT INTO EARLY FRI. SOME CIG
RESTRICTIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI/SAT.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
955 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OR FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT FORECAST READINGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
LOWERED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGITS AT SOME FAVORED
OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR HAS FLOODED THE REGION WITH 20S AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -14C NOT FAR UPSTREAM FROM THE 00Z GRB RAOB. MODIFYING
THAT GRB SOUNDING FOR TEMP/DEW POINTS OBSERVED AT THE SOUTH
BUOY...WHICH SHOULD BOTH REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
TONIGHT...YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS
OF AROUND 6000 FT /EL AROUND 9000 FT/. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WITH SOME ECHOES TOWARD MID-LAKE. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER
ECHOES IN THERE ALONG WITH A STRAND OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
SATELLITE...WHICH SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
CURRENTLY THAT IS POINTING INTO BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN.
NO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THAT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS...WITH NUMEROUS SOURCES HAVING A NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WOBBLING THAT AREA
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. WITH NO
REAL CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...COULD ENVISION THIS STRUGGLES TO
MOVE BACK WEST MUCH. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHOWERS ALREADY EXIST AND
ON A CONVERGENT AXIS POINT TOWARD SOMEWHERE IS PROBABLE TO GET
HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY STILL JUST EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RAPID CUT-OFF TO THE WEST INTO OR JUST EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY. SO IT REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT THE TWO COUNTIES UNDER
THE ADVISORY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP SOME LATER TONIGHT AS SOME
COLD AIR STRATOCU IN EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...NOT SO MUCH A CONVERGENT AXIS OF THEM...BUT A FEW DRIFT
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INCLUDING CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT RE-INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL READINGS
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE TEENS
AND SET THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE THE WINDS EASE
WHICH WILL BE THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT THE PROBABILITY OF NEEDING TO LOWER...WHICH MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY INDICATING MAY BE A CHILLY ONE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NRN IL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ANY PCPN
AND LAYERED CLOUD HAS PUSHED WILL TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT GYY. PERSISTENT NNWY-NLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD STREAMING INTO NRN INDIANA...IMPACTING GYY. ALSO
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A LAKE EFFECT PLUME OF SNOW HAS SET UP
OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE LAKE AND THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN
THAT THE PLUME MAY MEANDER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING SOME SNOW TO
GYY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN
LAKE EFFECT PLUME SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF GYY...BUT THIS SITE COULD
STILL SEE SOME SHSN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH WEATHER GROUP FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS...WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH WISCONSIN...THOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE PORTIONS OF
THE CLOUD COVER WELL INLAND ERODING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN WITH BKN-OVC COVERAGE WITH 040-050
BASES. WILL START OUT WITH SCT050...THROUGH PERIODS OF BKN CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WILL BE VFR.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. WITH SKIES CLEARING...THE SFC LAYER IS DECOUPLING FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND GUSTINESS HAS ENDED AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS LIKELY AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY BACKING FROM NWLY TO WLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5KT BY
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD
BE UNRESTRICTED WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER SOME PASSING ALTOSTRATUS
OR CI.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CST
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NWLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
BRISK NWLY-WLY WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO
QUICKLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILL RE-INTENSIFY AND THE BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP TO
35-40KT GALES ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER AREA AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONG WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO...IN ADDITION TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE OPEN
WATERS...THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
WELL.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1151 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
955 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OR FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT FORECAST READINGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
LOWERED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGITS AT SOME FAVORED
OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR HAS FLOODED THE REGION WITH 20S AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -14C NOT FAR UPSTREAM FROM THE 00Z GRB RAOB. MODIFYING
THAT GRB SOUNDING FOR TEMP/DEW POINTS OBSERVED AT THE SOUTH
BUOY...WHICH SHOULD BOTH REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
TONIGHT...YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS
OF AROUND 6000 FT /EL AROUND 9000 FT/. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WITH SOME ECHOES TOWARD MID-LAKE. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER
ECHOES IN THERE ALONG WITH A STRAND OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
SATELLITE...WHICH SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
CURRENTLY THAT IS POINTING INTO BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN.
NO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THAT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS...WITH NUMEROUS SOURCES HAVING A NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WOBBLING THAT AREA
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. WITH NO
REAL CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...COULD ENVISION THIS STRUGGLES TO
MOVE BACK WEST MUCH. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHOWERS ALREADY EXIST AND
ON A CONVERGENT AXIS POINT TOWARD SOMEWHERE IS PROBABLE TO GET
HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY STILL JUST EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RAPID CUT-OFF TO THE WEST INTO OR JUST EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY. SO IT REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT THE TWO COUNTIES UNDER
THE ADVISORY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP SOME LATER TONIGHT AS SOME
COLD AIR STRATOCU IN EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...NOT SO MUCH A CONVERGENT AXIS OF THEM...BUT A FEW DRIFT
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INCLUDING CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT RE-INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL READINGS
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE TEENS
AND SET THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE THE WINDS EASE
WHICH WILL BE THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT THE PROBABILITY OF NEEDING TO LOWER...WHICH MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY INDICATING MAY BE A CHILLY ONE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NRN IL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ANY PCPN
AND LAYERED CLOUD HAS PUSHED WILL TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT GYY. PERSISTENT NNWY-NLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD STREAMING INTO NRN INDIANA...IMPACTING GYY. ALSO
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A LAKE EFFECT PLUME OF SNOW HAS SET UP
OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE LAKE AND THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN
THAT THE PLUME MAY MEANDER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING SOME SNOW TO
GYY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN
LAKE EFFECT PLUME SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF GYY...BUT THIS SITE COULD
STILL SEE SOME SHSN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH WEATHER GROUP FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS...WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH WISCONSIN...THOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE PORTIONS OF
THE CLOUD COVER WELL INLAND ERODING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN WITH BKN-OVC COVERAGE WITH 040-050
BASES. WILL START OUT WITH SCT050...THROUGH PERIODS OF BKN CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WILL BE VFR.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. WITH SKIES CLEARING...THE SFC LAYER IS DECOUPLING FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND GUSTINESS HAS ENDED AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS LIKELY AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY BACKING FROM NWLY TO WLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5KT BY
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD
BE UNRESTRICTED WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER SOME PASSING ALTOSTRATUS
OR CI.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1108 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.UPDATE....
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
LAKE BAND LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY POP AND WEATHER FORECASTS TO MATCH
RADAR BUT OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME. EARLIER UPDATED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO REFLECT TOTALS RECEIVED SO FAR BUT WARNING
ITSELF STILL LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN TO LET EXPIRE AT 18Z.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH AS READINGS HAVE WARMED
QUICKLY THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
BKN LK EFFECT BANDING NOTED THIS MORNING IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND
A FUNCTION OF SOME IN CLOUD SHEAR AHD OF APCHG MID LVL SW TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH WI ATTM. HWVR WELL DEFINED AND STG CVRG ZONE
NOTED IN BUOY/SFC OBS W/SOME ORGANIZATION NOTED RECENTLY TO SNOW
BAND WWD OF MUSKEGON/HOLLAND. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE CONTS TO
FOLLOW PRIOR EARLY EVENING TRENDS OF PUSHING BAND WWD INTO NW IN
IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LL THERMAL TROUGH/LAND BREEZE CIRC AND
SO FAR THE CASE SINCE 1 AM AS BAND HAD SHIFTED WEST OF BENTON
HARBOR. THUS W/MORNING ISSUANCE WILL DROP PRIOR HEADLINES ACRS ST
JOE/MARSHALL/PULASKI WHILE LEAVING REMAINDER OF WSW INTACT AS
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS STILL CLEARLY FVRD LTR THIS MORNING. XPC BAND
WILL PEAK IN 10-15Z TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO LESSENING SHEAR
BUT CONVERSELY RAPIDLY BREAKUP EWD AS MID LVL TROUGH PASSES TWD
18Z AS STG AND VRY DRY SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES BAND. AT LEAST ONE
IN/HR SNOW RATES LIKELY ACRS LAPORTE AND SWRN BERRIEN COUNTIES LTR
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 1040MB SFC
RIDGE AND DECOUPLED SFC FLW WILL YIELD A VRY COLD NIGHT W/TEMPS NOT
FAR FM RECORD MINS. DEEP SNOW CVR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
WILL AWAIT RESULTS OF SNOW ACCUMS THAT FALL OUT TDA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ENSEMBLE SPREADS AMONG
MEMBERS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND HOW FAST. USED THE MEAN GFS
ENSEMBLE BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE WEST SOLUTION WITH
SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
INTENSE LAND BREEZE CIRC HOLDING BROKEN BUT INTENSE BAND OF SHSN
WEST OF KSBN TERMINAL AND XPC THAT WILL CONT TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LT MORNING IN TUNE W/LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. REGARDLESS IMPACTS WILL
BE FLEETING W/BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY TWD EARLY AFTN.
DROPPED PRIOR FUEL ALT TEMPO MENTION. OTWS NO CONCERNS AT KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ004-012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
604 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
BKN LK EFFECT BANDING NOTED THIS MORNING IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND
A FUNCTION OF SOME IN CLOUD SHEAR AHD OF APCHG MID LVL SW TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH WI ATTM. HWVR WELL DEFINED AND STG CVRG ZONE
NOTED IN BUOY/SFC OBS W/SOME ORGANIZATION NOTED RECENTLY TO SNOW
BAND WWD OF MUSKEGON/HOLLAND. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE CONTS TO
FOLLOW PRIOR EARLY EVENING TRENDS OF PUSHING BAND WWD INTO NW IN
IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LL THERMAL TROUGH/LAND BREEZE CIRC AND
SO FAR THE CASE SINCE 1 AM AS BAND HAD SHIFTED WEST OF BENTON
HARBOR. THUS W/MORNING ISSUANCE WILL DROP PRIOR HEADLINES ACRS ST
JOE/MARSHALL/PULASKI WHILE LEAVING REMAINDER OF WSW INTACT AS
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS STILL CLEARLY FVRD LTR THIS MORNING. XPC BAND
WILL PEAK IN 10-15Z TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO LESSENING SHEAR
BUT CONVERSELY RAPIDLY BREAKUP EWD AS MID LVL TROUGH PASSES TWD
18Z AS STG AND VRY DRY SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES BAND. AT LEAST ONE
IN/HR SNOW RATES LIKELY ACRS LAPORTE AND SWRN BERRIEN COUNTIES LTR
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 1040MB SFC
RIDGE AND DECOUPLED SFC FLW WILL YIELD A VRY COLD NIGHT W/TEMPS NOT
FAR FM RECORD MINS. DEEP SNOW CVR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
WILL AWAIT RESULTS OF SNOW ACCUMS THAT FALL OUT TDA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ENSEMBLE SPREADS AMONG
MEMBERS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND HOW FAST. USED THE MEAN GFS
ENSEMBLE BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE WEST SOLUTION WITH
SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
INTENSE LAND BREEZE CIRC HOLDING BROKEN BUT INTENSE BAND OF SHSN
WEST OF KSBN TERMINAL AND XPC THAT WILL CONT TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LT MORNING IN TUNE W/LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. REGARDLESS IMPACTS WILL
BE FLEETING W/BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY TWD EARLY AFTN.
DROPPED PRIOR FUEL ALT TEMPO MENTION. OTWS NO CONCERNS AT KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ004-012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
351 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
BKN LK EFFECT BANDING NOTED THIS MORNING IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND
A FUNCTION OF SOME IN CLOUD SHEAR AHD OF APCHG MID LVL SW TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH WI ATTM. HWVR WELL DEFINED AND STG CVRG ZONE
NOTED IN BUOY/SFC OBS W/SOME ORGANIZATION NOTED RECENTLY TO SNOW
BAND WWD OF MUSKEGON/HOLLAND. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE CONTS TO
FOLLOW PRIOR EARLY EVENING TRENDS OF PUSHING BAND WWD INTO NW IN
IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LL THERMAL TROUGH/LAND BREEZE CIRC AND
SO FAR THE CASE SINCE 1 AM AS BAND HAD SHIFTED WEST OF BENTON
HARBOR. THUS W/MORNING ISSUANCE WILL DROP PRIOR HEADLINES ACRS ST
JOE/MARSHALL/PULASKI WHILE LEAVING REMAINDER OF WSW INTACT AS
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS STILL CLEARLY FVRD LTR THIS MORNING. XPC BAND
WILL PEAK IN 10-15Z TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO LESSENING SHEAR
BUT CONVERSELY RAPIDLY BREAKUP EWD AS MID LVL TROUGH PASSES TWD
18Z AS STG AND VRY DRY SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES BAND. AT LEAST ONE
IN/HR SNOW RATES LIKELY ACRS LAPORTE AND SWRN BERRIEN COUNTIES LTR
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 1040MB SFC
RIDGE AND DECOUPLED SFC FLW WILL YIELD A VRY COLD NIGHT W/TEMPS NOT
FAR FM RECORD MINS. DEEP SNOW CVR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
WILL AWAIT RESULTS OF SNOW ACCUMS THAT FALL OUT TDA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ENSEMBLE SPREADS AMONG
MEMBERS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND HOW FAST. USED THE MEAN GFS
ENSEMBLE BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE WEST SOLUTION WITH
SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
LAND BREEZE CIRC INTENSIFICATION WELL UNDERWAY W/RECENT NOTABLE
VEERING ALG WRN MI SHORELINE ALG W/NOTED SINGLE BAND
INTENSIFICATION WEST OF KMKG. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RUC...LOCAL WRF AND ESP HRRR MODEL LOOK PROMISING BY TAKING
BAND WWD INTO NW IN TWD 12Z AND THEN BENDING BACK EWD AS LARGER
SCALE FLW BEGINS TO BACK W/APCH OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. THUS XPC
NO PROBS AT KSBN THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z AND PERHAPS LONGER BUT
EVENTUALLY BAND WILL WORK THROUGH KSBN AIRFIELD IN 15-18Z WINDOW
W/BRIEF IFR FUEL ALT PSBL BUT PASSAGE OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID A BREAKDOWN.
VFR CONDS OTRWS THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ004-012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM IS ON POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION
REGARDING THIS EVENING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS VALID.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
CWA AND EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPS AND BRIEF TIME WINDOW BEFORE DRY AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING.
VERY COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL WILL THEN
FILTER OVER THE STILL VERY WARM LAKE BY LATER THIS EVENING.
INITIALLY...A RESPECTABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP CONVECTIVE
DEPTHS TO 8 KFT OR LESS BUT THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ARRIVE BY
LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING 700MB DELTA-T`S TO RISE TO AROUND 30C AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO APPROACH 12KFT. FETCH IS NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUR
CWA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE. ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM APPROACHING RIDGE RESULTS IN
NORTHERLY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY NNE FLOW OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF ENHANCED OMEGA
CURLING A BIT OVER BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPINGING RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SINGLE
DOMINANT BAND FORMING BY AROUND 06Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH ALMOST
18Z TOMORROW. DEGREE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS STILL VERY MUCH A CONCERN.
MODELS STILL INDICATE VERY DRY MIDLEVELS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LIMITED LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION FOR OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LONG AXIS FETCH AND EXPECTED DOMINANT BAND
FORMATION STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS BAND WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. CONVECTIVE DEPTHS WONT INITIALLY
REACH THE FAVORED DGZ BUT DO REACH THAT LEVEL BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES. LAKE EFFECT BAND MAY MEANDER A BIT DURING THE
PERIOD AND STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE
IMPACTED AREA BUT EXPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW BAND OF 4-8"
ACCUMULATION SOMEWHERE IN LAPORTE AND WESTERN BERRIEN/ST. JOSEPH IN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND. EVEN IF SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NOT QUITE THAT HIGH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...THE PEAK OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OF THE SEASON. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR OUR NORTHWEST THREE AND LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM
IN STARKE, PULASKI, AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A QUICK END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL BY AROUND 18Z. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND PRODUCING APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL LATER PERIODS WITH
APPROACH OF A DEEPER TROUGH AND POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
COLD AIR NEAR OF JUST OUTSIDE THE DAY 7 PERIOD.
ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ENDING BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST.
KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY PART OF EVENING BUT
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT ITS
INFLUENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR SKIES MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS.
THIS BECOMES PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK WARMING ALOFT. EXPECTED SNOW COVER
FROM LAKE EFFECT WILL HELP THE COOLING PROCESS OVER WESTERN AREAS.
WITH MOS AND CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE ALREADY IN THE TEENS...HAVE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER. LOWS MAY FLIRT
WITH RECORDS IN THESE AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SKIES CLEAR.
WED HIGHS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN WEST GIVEN COLDER START SO ADJUSTED
ALLBLEND DOWN. MODELS SHOWING A NICE WARMING TREND WITH QUIET
WEATHER INTO EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME VERY PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER PLAINS WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO
LOWER 48. GFS ONCE AGAIN VERY FAST WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR WITH ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
PREFER TO GO CLOSER TO ALLBLEND AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD
KEEP OUR AREA ON WARMER SIDE OF BOUNDARY MONDAY. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LATTER PORTION OF WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPS TO REBOUND QUITE NICELY INTO UPPER 50S WITH A
CHANCE AT SOME 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
LAND BREEZE CIRC INTENSIFICATION WELL UNDERWAY W/RECENT NOTABLE
VEERING ALG WRN MI SHORELINE ALG W/NOTED SINGLE BAND
INTENSIFICATION WEST OF KMKG. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RUC...LOCAL WRF AND ESP HRRR MODEL LOOK PROMISING BY TAKING
BAND WWD INTO NW IN TWD 12Z AND THEN BENDING BACK EWD AS LARGER
SCALE FLW BEGINS TO BACK W/APCH OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. THUS XPC
NO PROBS AT KSBN THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z AND PERHAPS LONGER BUT
EVENTUALLY BAND WILL WORK THROUGH KSBN AIRFIELD IN 15-18Z WINDOW
W/BRIEF IFR FUEL ALT PSBL BUT PASSAGE OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID A BREAKDOWN.
VFR CONDS OTRWS THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ012>014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-004.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OUT PACING THE FORECAST TEMPS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO THIS MORNING. 11AM TEMPS WERE WITHIN
4 DEGREES OF MAX TEMPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDING
OFF THE RAP SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MIXING OUT TO AROUND 925 MB THIS
AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 30. GIVEN THE RATE THE
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING THIS MORNING AND MIXING BUMPED MAXES UP
MOST AREAS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS STRONG...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS FALL SEASON TO THE REGION
WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREA TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM ARE MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS WITH SOME LOWER 20S SOUTH SECTIONS. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A WARM UP BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY. LEAD PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE WEST COAST SUPPORTS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
TODAY...SUNNY BUT SEASONABLY QUITE COLD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH. BL MIXING HEIGHTS SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR MEAN GUIDANCE
IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH SECTIONS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS AGAIN VERY
COLD AND SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOW LYING
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED...FEATURING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE HIGH WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID SOUTH ALLOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
BROAD FLAT RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALLOW ONLY SHALLOW MIXING AND LEAD TO AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AFTER
THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. LOWS WED NIGHT ARE KEPT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRENDING MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOW SHOWN
DELAYED TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH QPF LIMITED TO ONLY THE GFS. WITH
MODEST UPPER FORCING PRIMARILY PREFRONTAL...WILL KEEP VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN GOING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODERATE...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50
WHILE CLOUD COVER AND MIXING HOLDS MINS IN THE 30S.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A SW FLOW OUT AHEAD AND EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS DIFFER IN BOTH THE
HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES AND THEN THE AMOUNT OF PHASING OF THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES THAT WILL AFFECT HOW THE MAIN
SURFACE WAVE LIFTS THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD WITH ASSOCIATED WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
LEADING TO ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH ANY DISTURBANCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 50S
BOTH DAYS WHILE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LIMIT LOWS TO THE 40S BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MONDAY...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS DEPICTING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE AND ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW ON BOARD WITH A
MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION THAN THE RADICALLY DIFFERING LOOK OF THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BOTH SUGGEST A RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW EVENT FOR THE
LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TRACKING MAINLY
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST NE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NOON WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KTS AROUND 15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
410 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGES AND TOUGHS FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTHERN
TEXAS...HOWEVER THERE IS LARGE SCALE DRY AIR MASS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. A MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS IN PACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IDAHO. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE WEST VERY
LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE WITH -4F TO 5F TD VALUES
REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
LUCKILY WITH GRADIENT WELL EAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT AND RFW CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET.
THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE NW US WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KICKING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 30S) DESPITE DECENT CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MID TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC INCREASES AND
DECREASES IN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGHS ACCOMPANY A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND EMERGES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS
A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSSURE
FILTERS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1144 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1145AM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND IT A LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER INFLUENCED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
TERRAIN IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOKS PROMISING FOR CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN DROPPING THIS
MORNING FOR MANY AREAS... SO CONFIDENCE IN REACHING FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER... WITH THE SUN COMING OUT
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING THE UPPER 30S. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST SKY COVER USING CMC REGIONAL MODEL AS THIS MODEL
HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TWO CLOUD DECKS.
9AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM BOSTON TO
NEW YORK CITY. UPSLOPE GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
DRIER. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. ALSO
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS EVEN LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE GETTING SOME OF THE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
THAT HEAVY... BUT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPING
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES. EVEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
LATER IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN.
630AM UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND IS
TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATIONS...TO THE
RECREATION FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LEFT SOME POPS IN THE PORTSMOUTH
AREA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THAT REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODEST MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THIS HOUR. RAISED MAXES TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY MIDDAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER WNW FACING TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO
CLEAR. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
FEW MORE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. -10 TO -12C AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE. FURTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ALL IN ALL...CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WITH TEENS MOVING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. IN THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS...SINGLE NUMBERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUING...BRINGING WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REACH THE COASTLINE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE 30S
SOUTH...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE
EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THRU THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS BECOME VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STRONG WNW FLOW. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
856 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM BOSTON TO
NEW YORK CITY. UPSLOPE GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
DRIER. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. ALSO
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS EVEN LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE GETTING SOME OF THE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
THAT HEAVY... BUT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPING
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES. EVEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
LATER IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN.
630AM UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND IS
TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATIONS...TO THE
RECREATION FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LEFT SOME POPS IN THE PORTSMOUTH
AREA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THAT REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODEST MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THIS HOUR. RAISED MAXES TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY MIDDAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER WNW FACING TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO
CLEAR. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
FEW MORE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. -10 TO -12C AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE. FURTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ALL IN ALL...CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WITH TEENS MOVING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. IN THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS...SINGLE NUMBERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUING...BRINGING WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REACH THE COASTLINE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE 30S
SOUTH...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE
EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THRU THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS BECOME VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STRONG WNW FLOW. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
625 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND IS
TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATIONS...TO THE
RECREATION FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LEFT SOME POPS IN THE PORTSMOUTH
AREA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PCPN IN THAT
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODEST MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THIS HOUR. RAISED MAXES TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ALBIET
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISC...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER WNW FACING TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO CLEAR. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A FEW MORE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. -10 TO -12C AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE. FURTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ALL IN ALL...CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WITH TEENS MOVING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. IN THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS...SINGLE NUMBERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUING...BRINGING WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REACH THE COASTLINE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE 30S
SOUTH...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SAT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. SUN NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL S/WVES WILL MOVE THRU THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING SCT SHWRS TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS BECOME VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STRONG WNW FLOW. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
LONG TERM...SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS WED
NIGHT OTRW NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM AZ/UT TO SASK AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WINDS WERE BACKING WRLY OVER UPPER MI AS THE LARGE HIGH PRES
SETTLES THROUGH ERN KS. LES INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA
WAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND VERY DRY
AIR WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME OFFSHORE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
TEENS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID HIGH CLOUDS
SUPPORTED BY WAA WITH 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS
UPPER MI AND INCREASING SW WINDS WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WED...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HIGH
SINKING INTO THE SRN CONUS AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY.
HOWVER...STRONG 925-850 MB WAA WILL INCREASE STABILITY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SFC WIND GUSTS. NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS
COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
STABILITY AND INCREASING STRONG/LOW INVERSION HEIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EVEN AS 925/850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 8C-10C RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE (DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB)
AND FORCING STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (AND PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE)...THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT
WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TRACK BEING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THAT AREA. THERE AREA ALSO DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE KEWEENAW ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL HAVING CHANCE POPS
IS REASONABLE. HAVE KEPT P-TYPE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THAT
PERIOD...FIRST DUE TO THE WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN DUE TO QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND ICE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 40 DURING THAT PERIOD AND LOWS AROUND 30.
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA WILL AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET OVER THE
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION
WILL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE AT THIS POINT FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR TUESDAY
(AROUND -15C AT 850MB) WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST WIND BELTS AND DID TREND POPS UP SOME FOR THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALONG WITH BACKING WINDS...CLEARING OVER WRN UPPER MI WILL MOVE
INTO SAW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAT PERIOD. LLWS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WINDS ABOVE INVERSION AT IWD AND SAW.
GUSTY WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH IN ONTARIO. WINDS NEAR GALE STRENGTH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS REPLACEMENT PROCESS CONTINUES TODAY WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM A 330 DEGREE
DIRECTION. THIS WILL CAUSE MOST/ALL TAF SITES TO START SEEING
ENTRY LEVEL MVFR CIGS. LAPSE RATES ALLOW A COMBINATION OF
CONVECTIVE CU AND ADVECTION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN STRATO CU TO LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE STATE. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE 3000 FT. THIS
IS SUPPORTED FROM KAPX AND KDTX 12Z SOUNDINGS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 733 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPDATE...
WEAK BUT NOTICABLE RIDGING HAS TURNED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN THUMB FROM A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND BACK
OVER LAKE HURON. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CURVATURE OF THE
BANDS IS SUCH THAT THEIR TRAJECTORIES NO LONGER TAKE THEM THROUGH
EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY WILL CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY EARLY DUE TO LITTLE CHANCE FOR THESE BANDS TO PUSH
WESTWARD WITH BACKING WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MM
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
733 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.UPDATE...
WEAK BUT NOTICABLE RIDGING HAS TURNED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN THUMB FROM A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND BACK
OVER LAKE HURON. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CURVATURE OF THE
BANDS IS SUCH THAT THEIR TRAJECTORIES NO LONGER TAKE THEM THROUGH
EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY WILL CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY EARLY DUE TO LITTLE CHANCE FOR THESE BANDS TO PUSH
WESTWARD WITH BACKING WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 605 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
//DISCUSSION...
DRY ARCTIC AIR UNDER N-NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID STRATO CU FIELD BACK
INTO SE MI WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000 FT. THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
TURNS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BACK TO THE TAF SITES.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
605 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
DRY ARCTIC AIR UNDER N-NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID STRATO CU FIELD BACK
INTO SE MI WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000 FT. THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
TURNS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BACK TO THE TAF SITES.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ049-MIZ055...UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1149 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
//DISCUSSION...
DRY ARCTIC AIR UNDER N-NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD HOLD THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE CERTAINLY IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE LAKE CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY ADVANCE TOWARD SE MI...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME
BRIEF INTERVALS OF OVERCAST SKIES. GIVEN THE INVERSION
HEIGHT...CLOUD BASES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FT. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TUES
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID STRATO CU FIELD BACK
INTO SE MI.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ049-MIZ055...UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
837 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
PARTS OF THE FORECAST WERE UPDATED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FOCUS IS
ON THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES/TYPE.
THERE ARE SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AS AN ILL DEFINED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW TO W WINDS SHOULD HELP
BOLSTER TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD...SO I RAISED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST JUST A BIT IN SPOTS.
I HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT LATER IN THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A RELATIVELY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND THE LIGHT SW TO W FLOW AND ITS MIXING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG FROM FORMING. THEREFORE...I
REFRAINED FROM DRAMATICALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AND DID NOT ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST...BUT THIS
IS SOMETHING THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE.
THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS ALREADY A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...SO I EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE
BORDERLAND LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. I SLIGHTLY ALTERED THE PCPN TYPE
FORECAST SO THAT IT BEGINS AS SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. MOST
OF THE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE GFS
AND HRRR SUGGEST IT MAY BE EARLIER. THIS PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. I SUSPECT IT WILL BEGIN AS VIRGA BECAUSE OF THE DRY LAYER
UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
EARLIER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN BECAUSE IF IT MANAGES TO REACH THE
GROUND...THEN THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. IF IT HOLDS OFF TILL LATER IN THE MORNING...THE PCPN SHOULD
BE RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC TROFS WERE WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AT 19Z. MEANWHILE...A WARM
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE FEATURES
HAS BEEN WIND SHIFTS AND WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS SEEN IN
SFC OBS WITH TEMPS AROUND 50F IN NW MN. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HAD REACHED THE LOWER 50S DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A GUSTY SW
SFC WIND COVERED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ALONG WITH SOME CI
CLOUDS.
THE WARM FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FA AND REFORM FURTHER S IN WEST CENTRAL MN. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS FRONTAL ACTIVITY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
CANADA AND REACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. A LONG WAVE TROF
MOVES INTO MN AS WELL. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS
WILL AFFORD A SMALL POP OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY IN WI FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE VCNTY OF A SFC TROF. LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
COLD FRONT. PTYPE WILL START AS ALL SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHLAND BECOMES SITUATED INT HE WARM SLOT AHEAD OF THE TOUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH PWATS
RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 0.6-0.8" RANGE. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SAT. BASED ON NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MID-LVL TEMP PROFILES HAVE PTYPE REMAINING ALL
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A VERY MINIMAL THREAT
FOR -FZDZ IF THE SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT ANY ICE GROWTH.
FOCUS TURNS TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
IN THE STORM TRACK AND TIMING. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE
H85 TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS OVER
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AS
EXPECTED...THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BY A GOOD
12HR. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE H85 LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECM BRINGS THE H85 LOW
OVER NRN WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK
WILL DETERMINE THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST WED NOV 12 2013
UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC TROFS WERE WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AT 19Z. MEANWHILE...A WARM
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE FEATURES
HAS BEEN WIND SHIFTS AND WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS SEEN IN
SFC OBS WITH TEMPS AROUND 50F IN NW MN. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HAD REACHED THE LOWER 50S DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A GUSTY SW
SFC WIND COVERED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ALONG WITH SOME CI
CLOUDS.
THE WARM FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FA AND REFORM FURTHER S IN WEST CENTRAL MN. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS FRONTAL ACTIVITY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
CANADA AND REACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. A LONG WAVE TROF
MOVES INTO MN AS WELL. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS
WILL AFFORD A SMALL POP OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY IN WI FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE VCNTY OF A SFC TROF. LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
COLD FRONT. PTYPE WILL START AS ALL SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHLAND BECOMES SITUATED INT HE WARM SLOT AHEAD OF THE TOUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH PWATS
RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 0.6-0.8" RANGE. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SAT. BASED ON NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MID-LVL TEMP PROFILES HAVE PTYPE REMAINING ALL
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A VERY MINIMAL THREAT
FOR -FZDZ IF THE SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT ANY ICE GROWTH.
FOCUS TURNS TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
IN THE STORM TRACK AND TIMING. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE
H85 TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS OVER
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AS
EXPECTED...THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BY A GOOD
12HR. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE H85 LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECM BRINGS THE H85 LOW
OVER NRN WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK
WILL DETERMINE THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 42 30 41 / 0 10 10 10
INL 27 35 26 38 / 10 30 30 10
BRD 30 44 29 44 / 0 10 10 20
HYR 28 43 29 44 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 32 43 31 44 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SOUTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL USHER IS GRADUAL WARMING.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS COVERING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE CLOUDS...WITH THE
RAP DOING AN OK JOB. THE RAP SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z...AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
15-16Z. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE OCCURRING DUE TO
LAKE PROCESSES. WE UPPED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
FOLLOWED THE RAP IN DIMINISHING THEM THROUGH THE MORNING. WE ALSO
MENTION SOME FLURRIES...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
BY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER TWENTIES.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM -10C TO -14C THIS MORNING TO +6C TO +9C
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THERE WILL
BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLING A STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING INVERSION DUE TO THE WAA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WHERE
THE WIND IS ABLE TO GO LIGHT. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
AND STRONG THROUGH THE DAY LIMITING THE MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS
LOWER THAN IF WE HAD BETTER MIXING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-MS/OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM OMAHA TO
MARQUETTE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT ALSO
ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
N/NW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. THE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
15Z AS LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS AND GUSTY SW SFC WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 16 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
INL 30 17 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 29 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 26 15 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 32 18 43 31 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
533 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SOUTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL USHER IS GRADUAL WARMING.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS COVERING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE CLOUDS...WITH THE
RAP DOING AN OK JOB. THE RAP SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z...AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
15-16Z. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE OCCURRING DUE TO
LAKE PROCESSES. WE UPPED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
FOLLOWED THE RAP IN DIMINISHING THEM THROUGH THE MORNING. WE ALSO
MENTION SOME FLURRIES...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
BY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER TWENTIES.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM -10C TO -14C THIS MORNING TO +6C TO +9C
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THERE WILL
BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLING A STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING INVERSION DUE TO THE WAA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WHERE
THE WIND IS ABLE TO GO LIGHT. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
AND STRONG THROUGH THE DAY LIMITING THE MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS
LOWER THAN IF WE HAD BETTER MIXING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-MS/OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM OMAHA TO
MARQUETTE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT ALSO
ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
N/NW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. THE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
WEAK AND DRY S/W TRACKING NW-SE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OFF AND CONDITIONS BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AROUND HYR THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WAA WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LLWS...ALONG
WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 16 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
INL 30 17 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 29 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 26 15 40 28 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 32 18 43 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
317 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SOUTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL USHER IS GRADUAL WARMING.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS COVERING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE CLOUDS...WITH THE
RAP DOING AN OK JOB. THE RAP SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z...AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
15-16Z. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE OCCURRING DUE TO
LAKE PROCESSES. WE UPPED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
FOLLOWED THE RAP IN DIMINISHING THEM THROUGH THE MORNING. WE ALSO
MENTION SOME FLURRIES...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
BY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER TWENTIES.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM -10C TO -14C THIS MORNING TO +6C TO +9C
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THERE WILL
BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLING A STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING INVERSION DUE TO THE WAA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WHERE
THE WIND IS ABLE TO GO LIGHT. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
AND STRONG THROUGH THE DAY LIMITING THE MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS
LOWER THAN IF WE HAD BETTER MIXING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-MS/OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM OMAHA TO
MARQUETTE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT ALSO
ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
N/NW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. THE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA...INCLUDING KBRD/HIB/KINL...WILL SEE
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE LOW CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT ARE LINGERING MUCH LONGER THAN THOUGHT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATER THIS MORNING.
THE LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME W TO WSW TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 16 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
INL 30 17 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 29 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 26 15 40 28 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 32 18 43 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
529 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
ISOLATED THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE.
LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY MILD...NEAR 40 DEGREES. A
LITTLE COOLER FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE CALM WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN RISE TO UPPER 30S AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
AND WIND INCREASES.
ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SOME...AND NOT MUCH MIXING EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
LOCALS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
THE GFS40..GEMNH...NAM12 AND THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. A CROSS-SECTION FROM ONEILL TO HOLDREGE SHOWS
SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 300-310K LAYER.
THE LIFTED PARCELS ARE NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED...SO ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THE AREA INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUPER-COOLED SATURATED AIR
AND WEAK LIFT THAT IS MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30F...ANY THAT DOES FALL WILL PROBABLY FREEZE ON
SURFACES.
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A
TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS40 AND THE GEMNH OF ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER YET. OTHERWISE...THEY ARE SHOWING A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH AN OPEN UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AT LEAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT A CROSS SECTION FROM ABOUT GILLETTE WYOMING TO
NEAR EMPORIA KANSAS AND FROM VALENTINE TO MCCOOK...THE COMBINATION
OF SYSTEM-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FOLDED THETA-E WILL GENERATE STRONG UPWARD
MOTION. MODERATE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN
THAT LAYER OF 1-3G/KG. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS A QUICK HIT
AND...BECAUSE IT WILL BE ONLY ABOUT EIGHT HOURS DURATION...THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...THE QPF OF
0.07-0.12 INDICATED BY THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THAT SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT. A FORECAST SOUNDING FOR NORTH PLATTE...WHICH IS ABOUT
THE MIDDLE OF THE MAXIMUM UPWARD MOTION...SHOWS A FAIRLY WARM LAYER
BELOW 725MB WITH THE WET BULB ZERO NEAR 820MB. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
FAIRLY RAPID COOLING AND LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS SERN MT...WILL MOVE
THROUGH WRN AND NCNTL NEB TONIGHT. THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS NWRN NEB WEST OF KVTN. THIS RAIN AND MVFR WILL
LAST FROM 08Z-12Z AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR AND SPRINKLES AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST. VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER 12Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
946 PM EST WED NOV 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY BRING MILDER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS. INITIAL AREA OF OVERCAST SKIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
SINCE SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH INFRARED SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY AT MID-LEVELS.
THOUGH CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT...STILL BELIEVE THAT
LOW TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MANY AREAS AS STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS WILL HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND WITH LOW
LEVELS WARMING. TEMPS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TREND WITH TEMPS HOVERING OR SLIGHTLY RISING FROM CURRENT READINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.
I`VE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH LAKE
EFFECT CAN TAKE PLACE AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS BULLISH
ON ITS POTENTIAL. THERE`S FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND I COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUDINESS THERE.
HOWEVER WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN UNSATURATED ICE NUCLEI
LAYER...IF ANYTHING WERE TO FALL OUT OF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IT
MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE. SO I`VE OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE HRRR AND REMOVE MENTION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN SOME MILDER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH EACH PERIOD A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS MAX AND MIN TEMPS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE ABV NORMAL
CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE W/ ASSOCIATED STRONG CD FRONT RESIDES OVER THE GREAT
LKS/MIDWEST REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG WAA ON
SSW FLOW. 925MB TEMPS INCR FROM 0C TO +4C ON SATURDAY TO +8C TO
+10C ON SUNDAY AS GRADIENT INCR AHEAD OF FRONT. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING FOR SUNDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE 2-DAY PERIOD
W/ HIGHS RAMPING UP FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWS 50S TO THE 50S TO NEAR
60F IN SPOTS SUNDAY IN MANY SPOTS. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE CLD COVER
DEPENDENT AS FRONT APPROACHES FOR N NY. MDLS IN FAIR CONSENSUS
THAT FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THRU REGION SUN NGT/MON DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...CVLY WESTWARD WILL HAVE
CHANCE FOR 50S FOR HIGHS BFR CD AIR BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG
JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM 925MB TO 700MB COULD BRING SFC
WIND GUSTS NEAR 30-40MPH. W/ FRONT TAPPING INTO GULF
MOISTURE...MDL QPF COULD BRING 0.50-1.00" RAINFALL AMTS. AS FRONT
PASSES THRU AREA SUNDAY NGT/MONDAY...COLDER AIR ON INCR WNW FLOW
BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANGEOVER FROM -RW TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
FIRST....THEN GOING INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ENTIRE CWA
SLIPPING FROM NEAR TO BLW NORMAL TEMPS...-SW FOR ALL AREAS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ON HIR TRRN/NW FACING SLOPES.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...AREA OF 1000-3000 FOOT CEILINGS ARE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS EVENING...BUT
WILL EXIT THE AREA AFTER 03Z LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20000
FEET AFTER 04Z. NO OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE EXPECTED. PRIOR TO 12Z THERE MAY BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BEFORE THE SURFACE WINDS PICK UP WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT
2000 FEET AROUND 35 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED S/W`S
AND SFC BOUNDARY WL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV THRU THE PERIOD. ALSO...SOME BREEZY
TO GUSTY WINDS WL BE POSSIBLE ON THURS INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF WEAK
BOUNDARY. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION FOR SAT INTO
SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES...BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHIFT INTO THE SSW ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING...AND
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
WAVES - BUILDING TO 2-4 FEET - WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF
THE BROAD LAKE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF GRAND ISLE. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN S-SW 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
MARINE...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
322 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
0.05 AND 0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN OR SNOW. WET
BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE VA BORDER
COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. AS
COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT
THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A MOSTLY WET SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER AND IN THE TRIAD
REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. THE
PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-4 HOURS LONG WITH MUCH
OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE TO ACTUAL SNOW
LIQUID QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND A
WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER
AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN
SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING ALOFT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COATING OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE
ACCUMULATED SNOW MELTS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS BUT A WARM
GROUND SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. STRONG CAA SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST AS A STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SETTLES OVER
GA/SC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE. COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S... WITH
TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS FALLING TO AROUND 20. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
THU AND THU NIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC SURFACE
RIDGE...ONE THAT PEAKED AT 1048 MB OVER KS AND NE EARLIER TODAY...
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AND THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER
DRYNESS...INCLUDING AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. DRY ADIABATIC...BUT
SHALLOW MIXING TO ABOUT 2000 FEET AMIDST THE ARCTIC RIDGING...
SUPPORTS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL
BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S GIVEN PROJECTED LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1335 METERS.
FRI THROUGH TUE: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SHORTWAVE/SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS REMAIN...AND AS SUCH...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ONLY AVERAGE.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS STILL FOR A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE...ALBEIT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
MODIFIED SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WILL SUPPORT A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN
RIDGING WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS PROCESS
MAY THEN PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY SAT-SUN...HOWEVER.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN INCREASINGLY STRONG AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND ALONG
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MON-TUE. MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TO
LOWER 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
321 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.05 AND
0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND
ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SNOW. WET BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A
MOSTLY WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER
AND IN THE TRIAD REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT. THE PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-3
HOURS LONG WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE
TO ACTUAL SNOW LIQUID GFS ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING AND A WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH
IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FORCING ALOFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COASTING OF WET
SNOW BEFORE MELTING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS. STRONG CAA
SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
THU AND THU NIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC SURFACE
RIDGE...ONE THAT PEAKED AT 1048 MB OVER KS AND NE EARLIER TODAY...
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AND THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER
DRYNESS...INCLUDING AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. DRY ADIABATIC...BUT
SHALLOW MIXING TO ABOUT 2000 FEET AMIDST THE ARCTIC RIDGING...
SUPPORTS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL
BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S GIVEN PROJECTED LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1335 METERS.
FRI THROUGH TUE: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SHORTWAVE/SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS REMAIN...AND AS SUCH...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ONLY AVERAGE.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS STILL FOR A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE...ALBEIT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
MODIFIED SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WILL SUPPORT A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN
RIDGING WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS PROCESS
MAY THEN PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY SAT-SUN...HOWEVER.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN INCREASINGLY STRONG AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND ALONG
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MON-TUE. MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TO
LOWER 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.05 AND
0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND
ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SNOW. WET BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A
MOSTLY WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER
AND IN THE TRIAD REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT. THE PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-3
HOURS LONG WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE
TO ACTUAL SNOW LIQUID GFS ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING AND A WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH
IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FORCING ALOFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COASTING OF WET
SNOW BEFORE MELTING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS. STRONG CAA
SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINTAINING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL NC AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING AT 850MB...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...HOWEVER...AND GUIDANCE
MOSTLY INDICATES MID 50S FOR HIGHS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE HIGH AND 850MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFT OFFSHORE. RH CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OUT WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE BASED ON THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S....POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE WEST IF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS AND
THE PARENT HIGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND
THEN STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW PIEDMONT BY NOON...THROUGH THE TRIANGLE
AREA BY AROUND 100 PM AND THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
BY 400 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALREADY WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER EVENT A MERE 6-12 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE RECENT RUC RUNS...HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE TRIAD...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE REGION OF STRONGEST DVPA
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR TRENDS IN SOUTHERN VA
BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TO TO SEE IF THE ADVERTISED BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. HAVE FOCUSED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF THE RAH CWA BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BUT IF A LARGER AND MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE PTYPE COULD CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WARM
GROUND...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH ACTUAL SNOWS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF THE INCH SHOULD RESULT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTING TO 25 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT WITH
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 1270M LOWS IN THE MID 20S LOOK
REASONABLE. -BLAES/CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINTAINING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL NC AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING AT 850MB...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...HOWEVER...AND GUIDANCE
MOSTLY INDICATES MID 50S FOR HIGHS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE HIGH AND 850MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFT OFFSHORE. RH CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OUT WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE BASED ON THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S....POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE WEST IF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS AND
THE PARENT HIGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND
THEN STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW PIEDMONT BY NOON...THROUGH THE TRIANGLE
AREA BY AROUND 100 PM AND THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
BY 400 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALREADY WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER EVENT A MERE 6-12 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE RECENT RUC RUNS...HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE TRIAD...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE REGION OF STRONGEST DVPA
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR TRENDS IN SOUTHERN VA
BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TO TO SEE IF THE ADVERTISED BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. HAVE FOCUSED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF THE RAH CWA BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BUT IF A LARGER AND MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE PTYPE COULD CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WARM
GROUND...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH ACTUAL SNOWS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF THE INCH SHOULD RESULT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTING TO 25 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT WITH
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 1270M LOWS IN THE MID 20S LOOK
REASONABLE. -BLAES/CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINTAINING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL NC AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING AT 850MB...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...HOWEVER...AND GUIDANCE
MOSTLY INDICATES MID 50S FOR HIGHS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE HIGH AND 850MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFT OFFSHORE. RH CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OUT WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE BASED ON THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S....POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE WEST IF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS AND
THE PARENT HIGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO
18Z TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...A NARROW BAND OF ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PRODUCE A
2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH POSSIBLY A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 06Z.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN... RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
MAYBE SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CBL/BSD
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMPLETELY ERODES THE WARM LAYER BY 00Z THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH CENTRAL...AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE NAM/RAP13 925MB RH FIELDS HAVE NOT
BEEN INITIALIZING WELL AT ALL TODAY...AS THEY HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WE HAVE A CLEAR
SKY...THUS CANNOT USE THIS DATA FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SWATH OF LESS THAN 500FT CEILINGS
NEAR/OVER THE SNOWCOVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENSIVE AREAL EXTENT SEEMS SUSPECT AT THIS
TIME. WILL BRIEF THE INCOMING EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR THIS. IF
IT DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN AND ALL AREAS
SOUTH WOULD BE AFFECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH
OUR LOCAL AREA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN
THE PERCENT AND COVERAGE OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. BUFFER SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WE WILL EITHER SEE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CAA ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WE DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG EMBEDDED
ENERGY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST WILL
AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOK TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOWFALL OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE WE COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 3
INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOKS TO FALL BELOW THAT MARK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CLOUDS LESS THAN 1KFT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR
BKN/OVC CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
519 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
015-025 MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DO NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AROUND SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES 03-06Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED OVERNIGHT AND IS RAPIDLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARDS. LEADING WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ONLY A COUNTY
AWAY FROM REACHING WACO. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. RAP AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED
THIS THE BEST THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS SHOWING THE FRONT AT THE
COAST BY 18Z. GIVEN THESE NEW TRENDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE FRONT THOUGH. ANY FASTER OR SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD DRASTICALLY
CHANGE THE HIGHS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(1047MB HIGH PRESSURE AROUND NEBRASKA) HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FROM AROUND A LINE
OF CLEVELAND TO CONROE TO BRENHAM. HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOUGH. IF WINDS
STAY ELEVATED SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN
GENERAL THOUGH LIGHTEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
BORDER. ON THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARDS TAKING THE BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE WITH IT.
THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW SUITE EASTWARDS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHTER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT RETURN FLOW POSSIBLY
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN SECOND NIGHT IS USUALLY COOLER
HAVE WENT A CLOSE COPY OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER ISSUE IS RETURNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY
MORNING. NAM... GFS... AND ECMWF ARE ALL HINTING AT CLOUD COVER
RETURNING FOR SOUTHERN SITES FIRST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE
NORTH. HAVE WARMED GALVESTON A BIT THURSDAY MORNING TO TAKE THIS
INTO ACCOUNT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN REMAINS TRICKY. INSTABILITY IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS LOW. LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY TEXAS APPEARS TO BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE JET BUT MOISTURE HAS YET TO FULLY RETURN.
BY SATURDAY THE MOISTURE HAS STARTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(~1.6" PWATS) BUT THE AREA NOW FALLS UNDER THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH (MORE OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND EAST). ON SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL BE DIVING DOWN TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN WITH IT AND POSSIBLY BEFORE IT. AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS WE WILL FALL IN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THE JET. GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BITING EITHER WAY. 23
MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY NOON. NORTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENTS GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS SHOULD PUSH
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS AND SHIP CHANNEL AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCA THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS AND
THEN ISSUE A GALE WARNING FROM 00Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE
GULF WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE BAYS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE TX. AS THE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 32 54 32 61 / 10 0 0 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 37 57 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 56 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
449 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED OVERNIGHT AND IS RAPIDLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARDS. LEADING WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ONLY A COUNTY
AWAY FROM REACHING WACO. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. RAP AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED
THIS THE BEST THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS SHOWING THE FRONT AT THE
COAST BY 18Z. GIVEN THESE NEW TRENDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE FRONT THOUGH. ANY FASTER OR SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD DRASTICALLY
CHANGE THE HIGHS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(1047MB HIGH PRESSURE AROUND NEBRASKA) HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FROM AROUND A LINE
OF CLEVELAND TO CONROE TO BRENHAM. HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOUGH. IF WINDS
STAY ELEVATED SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN
GENERAL THOUGH LIGHTEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
BORDER. ON THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARDS TAKING THE BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE WITH IT.
THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW SUITE EASTWARDS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHTER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT RETURN FLOW POSSIBLY
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN SECOND NIGHT IS USUALLY COOLER
HAVE WENT A CLOSE COPY OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER ISSUE IS RETURNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY
MORNING. NAM... GFS... AND ECMWF ARE ALL HINTING AT CLOUD COVER
RETURNING FOR SOUTHERN SITES FIRST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE
NORTH. HAVE WARMED GALVESTON A BIT THURSDAY MORNING TO TAKE THIS
INTO ACCOUNT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN REMAINS TRICKY. INSTABILITY IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS LOW. LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY TEXAS APPEARS TO BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE JET BUT MOISTURE HAS YET TO FULLY RETURN.
BY SATURDAY THE MOISTURE HAS STARTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(~1.6" PWATS) BUT THE AREA NOW FALLS UNDER THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH (MORE OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND EAST). ON SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL BE DIVING DOWN TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN WITH IT AND POSSIBLY BEFORE IT. AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS WE WILL FALL IN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THE JET. GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BITING EITHER WAY. 23
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY NOON. NORTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENTS GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS SHOULD PUSH
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS AND SHIP CHANNEL AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCA THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS AND
THEN ISSUE A GALE WARNING FROM 00Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE
GULF WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE BAYS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE TX. AS THE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 32 54 32 61 / 10 0 0 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 37 57 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 56 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog is forming across parts of the area ahead of a strong
cold front. Visibilities may drop as low as 1/4sm in some
locations. The front currently across the southern Texas panhandle
will move quickly south through the terminals overnight. North to
northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusty is expected behind the
front with IFR and MVFR ceilings developing. There could also be a
TEMPO period of MVFR visibilities in fog late tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Generally MVFR ceilings expected at all the
terminals during the day Tuesday with winds diminishing to 10 to
15 mph by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013/
UPDATE...
Moving things up by about 2-3 hours...
DISCUSSION...
Going to shoot out a quick update here in a bit to accelerate the front
by a few hours. Latest obs of temperature advection, 2D frontogenesis,
and grad mag thetae pairs up nicely with latest RUC13 progs. Looks
to me that the cold air is lagging the wind shift by about an hour
and that this lag may collapse as grad mag thetae catches up with
the boundary after 06Z or so. Wouldn`t be surprised if areas along
the front will see v dot del dirt (thanks, LUB!) lowering visibilities
briefly to below 3SM.
Have to look at lowering precip chances as we`re not overly optimistic.
Latest BUFR soundings keep the significant moist layer above the
inversion above 0C, and we`re not seeing much in the way of column
moistening or the potential for cold rain processes. However an
area of fog and maybe drizzle lagging FROPA by an hour or so looks
to be a safe bet. Probably key off RUC13 and what we can synthesize
from the latest HRRR output on winds, temps, and dewpoints. Don`t
expect much adjustments beyond maybe 18Z tomorrow, and that would
be for continuity more than anything else.
Wind chill will be the significant impact felt around here during the
morning hours...while temperatures will be significantly colder,
freezing temps aren`t expected until late Tuesday night. Northeasterly
winds 20-30 mph will make it feel like it`s in the 20s, however.
Dress warm and make sure pets and plants are tended to.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures are present this afternoon with some remnant low
clouds across the southeast Permian Basin and the Lower Trans
Pecos. A large upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region
with an associated arctic cold front currently racing southward
across the plains toward northern Oklahoma. Temperatures behind
this front in Kansas are mostly in the 30s. This modified arctic
cold front should reach the northern Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico shortly after midnight CST. Strong gusty winds are expected
with this front. The winds across the Guadalupe Mountains may
approach high wind criteria Tuesday morning. Did not issue a High
Wind Warning yet since conditions are marginal but do expect winds
to be gusty through the pass. Light rain and areas of fog are also
expected with the front. The rain is expected to spread across the
CWA as the front moves south. The fog will develop south and west
of the Pecos River during the later morning hours. Temperatures
will be significantly colder tomorrow with highs in the 30s to 40s
across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA. The warmest temperatures of
the day will be during the early morning hours for most of the area.
The rain will end across the Permian Basin after sunset Tuesday
evening and will mostly be concentrated south and west of the Pecos
River. This will allow for skies to clear across most of the
Permian Basin Wednesday morning. These clearing skies along with
near calm winds and a surface high across the region will allow for
temperatures to plummet. A hard freeze is possible for most of the Permian
Basin Wednesday morning so a Freeze Watch has been issued.
Temperatures will warm up on Wednesday afternoon but are still
expected to remain well below normal values. Another upper trough
will swing southward toward the Southern Plains on Thursday. This
will send a cold front into the northern CWA Thursday night, but
this front should not have much of an impact on temperatures. Rain
will be possible Friday as another upper trough approaches from the
west. The rain is then expected to spread eastward on Saturday. The
GFS and ECMWF are different in regards to the approaching upper
trough next weekend into early next week. Thus, the timing of the
cold front associated with this trough is in question. The GFS
pushes the cold front through on Sunday and attempts to form a low
south into Mexico. The ECMWF brings in the front on Monday and
hints at a low developing over southern Arizona. Due to this
discrepancy, did not have much confidence in the extended forecast
in regards to temperatures.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE
VERY COLD TROUGH LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1226 PM EST TUESDAY...
TRIMMED BACK POPS AND SNOW IN THE WEST AS HRRR AND WRFARW HAD
INDICATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SECOND AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SOUTHSIDE DID MANAGE TO PUSH 60 DEGREES WITH MORNING RISE OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN TONIGHT.
AS OF 1010 AM EST TUESDAY...
AN ACRTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. MOST OF
PRECIPITATION IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. THIS MORNING RNK WRFARW CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TWO MAIN
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ONE IN THE THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SECOND IN THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TEMPERATURES...POPS
AND WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 417 AM EST TUESDAY...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST. RESISSUED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADDED SOME WORDING FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z/7A THERE FIRST. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE REALLY ACCELERATED
AHEAD OF THIS IMPRESSIVE FRONT WITH LWB/BLF NOT TOO FAR FROM 50F
ATTM. TEMPS WILL FALL A GOOD 20F THERE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH RH IS VERY DRY...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. ALTHOUGH GROUND IS VERY WARM...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CONCERN OF A FLASH FREEZE AND A THIN LAYER OF ICE FORMING
WITH SUCH A FAST TEMPERATURE DROP...AND THEN SNOW ON TOP OF IT.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD REALLY DRY OUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...HOWEVER THIS EFFECT IS SOMETIMES MITIGATED ACROSS THE
JFZ/MKJ/BLF CORRIDOR. THUS...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ENOUGH
SNOW SURVIVES SUCH THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EXTREME SW
RECEIVE A QUICK INCH...ESPECIALLY IN TAZEWELL COUNTY.
NOT TO BE OUTDONE...GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AN AREA OF
SATURATED NEGATIVE EPV LINES UP JUST SE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE DARTS JUST ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TODAY IF PART OF THIS PRECIP
SHIELD CATCHES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ROUGHLY FROM FVX/LYH
THROUGH DAN/SIF. IF THIS AREA OF PRECIP EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH...INTO THE LYH/FVX AREA...THERE WILL BE MORE COLDER AIR AND
POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD PUT A LIGHT
COATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. H85 TEMPS CRASH QUICK ENOUGH EVEN
ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT SUCH THAT PRECIP MAY VERY WELL END AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT FAR SOUTH.
HUGE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE NEARLY 1040MB ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE USUAL CULPRITS...POSSIBLY NEAR 45 MPH AT
TNB/GEV WITH CRASHING INVERSION EARLY EVENING. EVEN ROA MAY GUST
TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY VERY WELL BRIEFLY DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM EST TUESDAY...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD WITH TEMPERATURES 15F-20F BELOW
NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10F BELOW
NORMAL.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE +5F TO +15F RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER TEENS
IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
WILL START FRIDAY OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING 40+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS TO OUR AREA AFTER STARTING THE
MORNING OFF WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND THE LOW 2O...AND
THEREFORE DELAYED ONSET BETTER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AFTER DARK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
TRIGGERING PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS RESULTING IN AN
EASTERLY WIND OFF THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT IS AT
THIS POINT THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS DEVELOP DIFFERENT
IDEAS AS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES.
BY SUNDAY...THE 11/12Z GFS FORECAST MODEL BECOMES ABOUT 24 HOURS
FASTER WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND AN ASSOCIATED DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE 11/12Z ECMWF MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD BE
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE WOULD
KEEP US IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK. MODELS DO AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
WINTER WEATHER...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS THEY TRY TO RESOLVE THE COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS IMPACTS MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONDITION IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 WITH GUSTS 15-30KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA/-SHSN POTENTIAL. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A WESTERN TROF WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A PROGRESSIVE
SWLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW PROMISES TO BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND -SHRA
TO THE AREA SAT AND BEYOND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN
-SHRA/BR. WILL NEED TO WATCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER THREAT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY MON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COLDEST HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 13TH:
ROANOKE: 38 IN 1976
BLUEFIELD: 28 IN 1976
DANVILLE: 41 IN 1968
LYNCHBURG: 36 IN 1911
BLACKSBURG: 34 1968.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ043-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/KM
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/KM
CLIMATE...PH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
545 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO COUPLED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY HAS LEAD TO STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR MAX
WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM MANITOWOC TO DOOR COUNTY. HRRR AND RAP
SUGGEST THAT GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS WE
APPROACH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLACKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUS EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. OVER DOOR COUNTY MAX WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY
EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE PASSAGE OF
RELATIVELY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN FLAT ZONAL FLOW. PRIMARY FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET AND SOME MODEST
FRONTEGENETIC FORCING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. A FEW OF THE MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY
DRY...INCLUDING THE REG GEM AND WRFARW...ARE NOW SHOWING A NARROW
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
BEWTEEN ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. ONLY MODIFIED POPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINED IN CHANCE CATEGORY. STILL APPEARS
THAT NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE GENERALLY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MODEST ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY AS GRADIENT BAGGIER WITH APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS DURING THE PERIOD AS A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH UPPER
JET MAX...IN EXCESS OF 160 KNOTS...ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CANADA
HELPS TO AMPLIFY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...WITH A STRONG FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD
OF IT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE 12Z GEM AND 12Z GFS HAD THE FIRST OF TWO SURFACE LOWS PASSING
THROUGH NORTHWEST WI/NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND
LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS SHOWED A PRETTY WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS INDICATING QPF AND MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD A SINGLE...STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT
WAS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT ALSO HAD SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANGING FROM
RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. KEPT A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING. LLWS SHOULD PERSIST AT RHI UNTIL AROUND 07Z...AUW/CWA
AROUND 10Z...AND ATW/GRB UNTIL 14Z. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO MAINLY SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT LOCAL MVFR
CIGS WITH THE PCPN...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN MOST
AREAS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 1046MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE RETREATED
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA...AND THE ONLY CLOUD
COVER LEFT IS AN AREA OF THIN MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PLENTY OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE COLUMN. SO AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...TEMPS AND WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THIS OCCURS...AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STAYING RATHER THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...TEMPS
SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO THIS SOUTHWEST BREEZE. UPSTREAM TEMPS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FELL INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THAT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AND WARM ADVECTING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG INVERSION WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
WILL NOT REACH THEIR POTENTIAL FROM MIXING...AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH THOUGH...LOCALLY STRONGER ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE
DOOR PENINSULA WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. WINDS COULD
REACH UP TO 35-40 MPH THERE...WHICH BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES
INTO THE PICTURE. HAVE HAD A FEW POTENTIAL GALES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY THIS FALL AND THEY SEEMED TO UNDER PERFORM WHAT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURRED
AGAIN...BUT THE NAM/GFS/SREF INDICATE MINOR MIXING UP TO 950MB WHICH
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER COORDINATION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OVER THE
MIDDLE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE DOOR PENINSULA.
LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND UPGRADE IF NECESSARY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW FIRST BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO JUST SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A BIG SNOWSTORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAT IT/S 12Z RUN YESTERDAY SUGGESTED. IT IS NOW MORE LIKE THE GFS
IN BRING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS
THOUGH PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONLY SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. WSW LLWS
WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE LATER IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...SO HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF
WIND SHEAR. DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE TOMORROW...CONTINUED
THE LLWS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTED A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
15K FEET. AS THE 1045 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE MORNING AND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
11.21Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SOME EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL EFFECT CLARK...TAYLOR...ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES
THROUGH 12.08Z. DUE TO THIS...DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COUNTIES. AFTER 12.08Z...THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A TASTE OF MID DECEMBER FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS COLD AIR FLOWS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE TUMBLED BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TODAY...AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL GO FROM -4 C THIS MORNING...TO -12 C BY 12Z TUE. 850 MB TEMP
ANOMALIES VIA THE SREF REMAINS -1.5 INTO TUE. EXPECTING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL STAY UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HOLDS FAST. NOT AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THAT SAID...LOWS IN LOW TO MID TEENS ARE
LIKELY.
NOT MUCH REBOUND FROM THE COLD START TO TUE...WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS PERSISTING. SOME MINOR WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FILTERING OUT
THE POTENTIAL SUNSHINE. THANKFULLY...THE COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF AS
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RETURN MORE SEASONABLE AIR
TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WED...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE THE SFC HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO WEST...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO
THE SEASONABLE VALUES...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WED NIGHT...SPINNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH MINIMAL QPF CURRENTLY
INDICATED. THIS BIT OF ENERGY COULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLATED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
WON/T OCCUR UNTIL BOTH FEATURES HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST.
MODELS PART WAYS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IT WANTED TO BRING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
11.12Z RUN POINTING TO ONLY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DRIVES A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME. A SFC FRONT WOULD LEAD
THE SHORTWAVE...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
EC HAS THE ANOTHER/SAME SHORTWAVE...BUT ABOUT A DAY BEHIND IT. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING THIS STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MON/TUE. SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD
RESULT...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN WHICH
SCENARIO WILL WIN OUT. WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...AND THEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SCATTERED DECK
OF CLOUDS OVER 15K FEET FOR TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SKIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLEAR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE 1045 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHIFTS SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING AND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1058 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WHILE A POTENT 1043MB SURFACE HIGH IS NOSING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRAILING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA
ARE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE ARRIVE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH...LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS ARE GROWING A LITTLE MORE SOLID THANKS TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND TRAJECTORIES HAVE
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY TO ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION...SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP IN THE
MID TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT WILL STILL HAVE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP NNW WINDS PERSISTENT THOUGH LESS GUSTY. WIND
TRAJECTORIES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT STRATO-CU TO BUILD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE STRATUS BEHAVIOR OVER MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION THOUGH. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND SLIGHTLY. SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE THE LAKE CLOUDS/STRATUS RETREAT TOWARDS THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C
WISCONSIN LATE. BUT DESPITE CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE
BRISK NNW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AND WILL GO WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL CAUSE
MORNING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO RETREAT NORTH TO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
SHOULD OTHERWISE SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. RATHER THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER SOUTH AROUND
MIDDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PARTIALLY FILTER THE SUN. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE BRIEF COLD SNAP WILL END WEDNESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING SOME
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES EAST. THEN DRY AND MILD SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH TWO
SURFACE LOWS IN THE PLAINS PHASING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MOVING INTO MICHIGAN WITH RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WHICH SLOWS AND
DEEPENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WOULD BRING RAIN AND MILD WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN A SNOWSTORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT/S TOO FAR OUT TO THINK ABOUT RIGHT NOW AND IT
IS RATHER EARLY IN THE SEASON...BUT THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS ARE THE ONES
THAT PRODUCE SOME OF THE BIGGER SNOWS IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
PASSING LAKE EFFECT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FEED INTO
THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...
A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEW NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE NNE WINDS FROM 2 TO 7 THSD FT TONIGHT. THE LAKE SNOW THAT WAS
OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PUSHING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRUSH THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WITH CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NNW THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PUSHING ANY LAKE SNOW BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A BAND OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEW NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE NNE WINDS FROM 2 TO 7 THSD FT TONIGHT. THE LAKE SNOW THAT WAS
OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PUSHING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRUSH THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WITH MVFR
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NNW THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PUSHING ANY LAKE SNOW BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
KENOSHA BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE SNOW
INTENSITY AND ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED ON GRASSY AREAS...WITH ROADS JUST REMAINING WET.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND CLEAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR WITHIN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWEST AND BECOME LESS GUSTY LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWER 20S NEAR THE LAKE. THIS IS QUITE A COLD
AIRMASS...AS NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...EXITING DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH MIXING
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE COLD SPELL COMING TO AN END AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT RAISES 850 MB TEMPERATURES 6C TO
8C...AND 925MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT AT THE SURFACE AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION PREVENTS MIXING WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.
925MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT IMPACT OF THE SHORTER
DAYS BEING FELT AND WITH THE COOL MORNING START LIMITS MIXING UP TO
THAT LEVEL. CONSRAW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOK ON
TRACK.
BETTER MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. TWO
ROUNDS OF LIFT WITH THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REFLECTED IN LOW LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX MOVING ACROSS IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF LIFT WITH DCVA
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS REFLECTED IN UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MAX MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF LIFT SO TAGGED
BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO THE SECOND ROUND THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW 1/2 THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
EARLIER POTENTIAL ON FASTER MODELS.
TEMPS COOL WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH SO WENT WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EVENING GOING TO
ALL SNOW IN THE NW OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.
MID-RANGE MODELS TAKE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE EAST BY 12 NOON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH TIMING/POSITION LEAVE A WIDE
VARIANCE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COLDER GFS HAS 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 540 DM...AND BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WI/IL
BORDER SUNDAY WITH EVEN LOWER THICKNESSES FILTERING IN BEHIND. WILL
STAY WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW THAT LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST.
STILL A WET SUNDAY...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN ALTERNATE AND
AIRPORT MINIMUMS...WILL END AT KENOSHA BY 2130Z. EXPECT UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT RUNWAYS SHOULD JUST
REMAIN WET.
GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS PASS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
831 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND...NOT TO SAY SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNR AND CYS
RADARS ARE SHOWING A NICE DONUT HOLE AROUND THE RADARS INDICATIVE
OF MOISTURE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...BUT RATHER MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
AND VIRGA. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN AND SNOW AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE. LATEST 00Z
NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF A GREAT DEAL OVER THE 18Z RUN. GFS
RUN WILL BE IN SOON AND EXPECTING A SIMILAR RESULT. THE HRRR IS
PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS WELL. IR
SATELLITE IS ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IF
ANYTHING. BACKED OFF ON POPS TONIGHT BUT WAS NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PULL POPS OUT COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN THE MOUNTAINS MAY STRUGGLE TO PICK UP
MUCH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
CURRENTLY WATCHING OBSERVATIONS SITES FROM AROUND THE AREA FOR
ANY SIGNS OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. NAM AND GFS HAVE BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS THIS EVENING. NAM PRODUCES 3
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHICH
WOULD BE EQUIVALENT TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GFS DOES NOT
PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH
AN INCH OR SO INTO THE SNOWY RANGE...OTHERWISE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH
SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...BUT
WILL BE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA TO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE CWA
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING AT 21Z. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AND WILL BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DEPICTING MORE QPF THAN THE GFS.
WILL INCREASE POPS SOME OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SLOWLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ONLY A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH AN INCH OR SO OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THE AXIS WILL BE BE NEAR THE WESTERN WYOMING
BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT FEATURE WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION AT THAT TIME...OVER UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE CWA FRIDAY ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES SHOULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY STILL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
CWA DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...OROGRAPHICS WILL PRODUCE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 18Z SATURDAY WILL ALREADY BE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE IS STILL
HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY MODELS. THE ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...BUT IS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TOWARD THE GFS. THE
TROUGH AXIS ON BOTH MODELS IS EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE 300 MB JET
WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION DURING THAT TIME. FOR NOW HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS...WITH POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS
PAINTING SOME JET AIDED QPF OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE CWA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY QPF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH AROUND 06Z. A WEAK FRONT
WILL PASS OVER THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06-12Z BEHIND THE FRONT. COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS MAINLY AT KCYS AND KLAR...BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR
ON THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A MILD...DRY AND BREEZY DAY TODAY...A SERIES
OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
EACH FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL BE
MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...WEILAND
AVIATION...FINCH
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1151 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGES AND TOUGHS FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTHERN
TEXAS...HOWEVER THERE IS LARGE SCALE DRY AIR MASS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. A MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS IN PACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IDAHO. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE WEST VERY
LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE WITH -4F TO 5F TD VALUES
REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
LUCKILY WITH GRADIENT WELL EAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT AND RFW CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET.
THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE NW US WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KICKING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 30S) DESPITE DECENT CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
OTHER MAJOR MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WARMED UP TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED...PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH...FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1029 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGES AND TOUGHS FROM MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTHERN
TEXAS...HOWEVER THERE IS LARGE SCALE DRY AIR MASS EVIDENT ON WV
IMAGERY. A MOIST MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS IN PACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS IDAHO. AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH SW GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. TO THE WEST VERY
LOW TD VALUES HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE WITH -4F TO 5F TD VALUES
REPORTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO.
LUCKILY WITH GRADIENT WELL EAST AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WINDS HAVE
BEEN LIGHT AND RFW CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET.
THE SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE NW US WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...KICKING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE I AM ONLY ANTICIPATING THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD OVERNIGHT TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING (MID TO UPPER 30S) DESPITE DECENT CAA BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AFTER A MILD DAY TODAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HIGHS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 50S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MID TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC INCREASES AND
DECREASES IN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF FRAGMENTED LEE TROUGHS ACCOMPANY A
SERIES OF UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND EMERGES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. CURRENTLY EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AS
PRECIPITATION ALSO BEGINS TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES WITH A RIDGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSSURE FILTERS
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN BECOME LIGHT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1113 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1113 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
The latest RAP and NAM solutions show the pressure gradient
remaining up through the night across eastern KS. Because of this
and with recent OBS showing some gusts near 20 KTS, have updated
the min temps to bump them up due to continued mixing of the
boundary layer. There are two concerns. One is that I may not be
warm enough across east central KS where winds are most likely to
remain in the 10 to 15 MPH range overnight. The second is across
north central KS where the surface trough may move in just before
sunrise and allow the boundary layer to decouple and temps to
quickly drop off. However latest OBS across central NEB show that
temps have not be inclined to cool rapidly once the winds weaken,
possibly due to the increasing cloud cover from the approaching
upper wave. Because of this opted to keep lows at CNK (notorious
for keeping a wind through the night) in the middle 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Little in the way of significant forecast problems for tonight and
Thursday. Sig pressure gradient between high over the southern
Mississippi valley and low pressure developing in the lee of the
Rockies has lead to gusty southerly winds today. These winds
will diminish late afternoon and early evening but maintain about 10
kts overnight...keeping temperatures from falling below the upper
20s to lower 30s.
Water vapor loop overlaid with RAP analysis and national radar show
precipitation associated with low amplitude shortwave trough
crossing the northern Rockies. This trough is forecast by all
models to move east across the northern U.S., approaching the
western Great Lakes by Thursday evening. Greatest forcing aloft and
any chance of measurable precipitation with this system is forecast
to stay well north of Kansas. Trailing surface low pressure trough
along with thicker mid and high level clouds should move into north
central and northeast Kansas Thursday afternoon. Thus...afternoon
winds on Thursday should not be as strong as those occurring today.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Focus of the longer term remains on the evolution of the storm
system into the weekend. Sfc low development will occur Friday
night into Saturday across western KS/NE as the first of two main
waves move through the longwave trough and into the plains. WAA
and lift should aid in the development of showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms later Friday night and into Saturday. Low
level winds veer in wake of the initial wave later Saturday
Saturday night so precip chcs appear sct at best during Sat night.
The second and main shortwave will emerge by Sunday along with the
associated sfc low. The low will track into Wisconsin later Sunday
with the cold front forecast to sweep through the area during the day.
The second upper wave remains progressive so don`t expect much in
the way of additional precip Sunday into Sunday night although CAA
along with shallow lift could result in light rain showers/drizzle
or some snow flurries later Sunday night.
All in all the ECMWF has trended less amplified with the pattern
into next week and as a result is not as cold while GFS remains
colder. In any case, it appears colder than avg for early next
week then moderating with dry/quiet weather after Sunday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1113 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
Limited moisture should allow for dry weather with VFR conditions
in spite of a weak upper level wave moving overhead late tonight
and Thursday. A surface trough axis is expected to remain west of
MHK so the forecast does not anticipate a wind shift prior to 06Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...GDP
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWEST
INTO WYOMING. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY... AND WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WITH
SOME PCPN OCCURRING UP AROUND 8-10K FT AGL OR SO. THERE IS SOME PCPN
REACHING THE GROUND OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT OVERALL
THINGS ARE VIRGA GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WHICH WAS QUITE
APPARENT ON THE KMPX... KABR... AND KOAX 00Z SOUNDINGS. AS THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST TODAY IT MAY EVENTUALLY MANAGE TO GET SOME
PCPN TO THE GROUND. THE 03Z HOPWRF KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ALOFT... BUT SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING SOME PCPN... BUT THE ECMWF ALSO
PRODUCES SOME. FORCING IS DECENT... WITH A BAND OF DPVA AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE... BUT MOISTURE IS THE OBVIOUS MISSING COMPONENT.
THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE FORCING THIS
MORNING... WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMPLEST THING TO DO IS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST... WHICH
INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTH/EAST PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF
FREEZING PCPN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE IN PCPN OCCURS
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AOB FREEZING... SINCE CURRENT
OBS OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUGGEST SOME LOCAL READINGS ARE DOWN
IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE... WE/LL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT... BUT WILL BE RIGHT BACK INTO RETURN
FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH BASICALLY ONE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD DRIVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS MN/WI ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE ECWMF AND
GEM ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN TWO
PARTS. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS YIELDS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MN/WI. A
SECOND LOW THEN RIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO EASTERN
WI FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE FROM THE ECMWF IS TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW AT THIS TIME IN
MN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN WESTERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD AIR IS MOVING IN ABOUT AS FAST
AS THE MOISTURE IS LEAVING... SO THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY.
IT WILL CERTAINLY TURN WINDY AND COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE DROP IN HIGHS FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 DEGREES OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED BY A CATEGORY OR MORE IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MORE ON TARGET THEN THE REST. IN
FACT THE ECMX MOS INDICATES MIDDLE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY
(WEDNESDAY). THE MAIN CULPRIT DRAGGING DOWN THE CR EXTEND HIGHS
WAS DGEX WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACK ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. MID-HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG/AHEAD
OF THESE FEATURES... AND WE SHOULD SEE THEM OVERSPREAD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOWER CEILINGS... PERHAPS AOB 5K FT AGL OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA... WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND12-17Z... AND
THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN AS WELL.
HOWEVER... THINGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
VEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH MINIMAL UNCERTAINTY. THE
ONLY REAL QUESTION WOULD BE WHETHER SOME LOWER CEILINGS MANIFEST
THEMSELVES THURSDAY MORNING... BUT AT THIS POINT THAT APPEARS TO
BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND WOULD STILL BE VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRIDAY...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH RAIN... IFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH RAIN...
IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW... IFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...LRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1123 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
UPDATE FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 836 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
PARTS OF THE FORECAST WERE UPDATED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FOCUS IS
ON THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN CHANCES/TYPE.
THERE ARE SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AS AN ILL DEFINED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SW TO W WINDS SHOULD HELP
BOLSTER TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD...SO I RAISED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST JUST A BIT IN SPOTS.
I HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT LATER IN THE MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A RELATIVELY DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND THE LIGHT SW TO W FLOW AND ITS MIXING MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG FROM FORMING. THEREFORE...I
REFRAINED FROM DRAMATICALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AND DID NOT ADD FOG INTO THE FORECAST...BUT THIS
IS SOMETHING THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE.
THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS ALREADY A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA...SO I EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO BEGIN TO ROLL INTO THE
BORDERLAND LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW MORNING. I SLIGHTLY ALTERED THE PCPN TYPE
FORECAST SO THAT IT BEGINS AS SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING...AND THEN
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD
RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE MAY BE A BAND OF PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. MOST
OF THE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT THE GFS
AND HRRR SUGGEST IT MAY BE EARLIER. THIS PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOUDS AROUND 10 KFT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. I SUSPECT IT WILL BEGIN AS VIRGA BECAUSE OF THE DRY LAYER
UNDERNEATH THE CLOUD DECK. HOWEVER...WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
EARLIER POTENTIAL FOR PCPN BECAUSE IF IT MANAGES TO REACH THE
GROUND...THEN THERE COULD BE A SHORT WINDOW OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN. IF IT HOLDS OFF TILL LATER IN THE MORNING...THE PCPN SHOULD
BE RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A COUPLE OF WEAK SFC TROFS WERE WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AT 19Z. MEANWHILE...A WARM
FRONT WAS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA AND A COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE FEATURES
HAS BEEN WIND SHIFTS AND WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS SEEN IN
SFC OBS WITH TEMPS AROUND 50F IN NW MN. TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HAD REACHED THE LOWER 50S DUE TO COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. A GUSTY SW
SFC WIND COVERED THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONTS ALONG WITH SOME CI
CLOUDS.
THE WARM FRONT WILL FALL APART AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FA AND REFORM FURTHER S IN WEST CENTRAL MN. EVEN WITH
ALL THIS FRONTAL ACTIVITY...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING. CLOUDS HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AND KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
CANADA AND REACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 18Z. A LONG WAVE TROF
MOVES INTO MN AS WELL. THERE IS A BIT MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THIS
WILL AFFORD A SMALL POP OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY IN WI FOR LIGHT
RAIN IN THE VCNTY OF A SFC TROF. LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
COLD FRONT. PTYPE WILL START AS ALL SNOW NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY MID MORNING THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
NORTHLAND BECOMES SITUATED INT HE WARM SLOT AHEAD OF THE TOUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A SURGE OF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH PWATS
RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 0.6-0.8" RANGE. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
FOR RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ZONES...WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SAT. BASED ON NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MID-LVL TEMP PROFILES HAVE PTYPE REMAINING ALL
RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A VERY MINIMAL THREAT
FOR -FZDZ IF THE SFC TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPS
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND LIMIT ANY ICE GROWTH.
FOCUS TURNS TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM CONTINUE TO HAVE RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY
IN THE STORM TRACK AND TIMING. HOWEVER...THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE
H85 TROUGH DEEPENS INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT LIFTS OVER
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AS
EXPECTED...THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTER OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS BY A GOOD
12HR. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE H85 LOW CENTER TRACKS ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE ECM BRINGS THE H85 LOW
OVER NRN WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DIFFERENCE IN STORM TRACK
WILL DETERMINE THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
LIGHT SW TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
POSSIBILITY OF IFR/MFVR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS AND/OR VFR CIGS IN THE 3 TO 5 KFT RANGE WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME -SN AND -RA
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...INCLUDING KINL AND KHIB...LATE
THURSDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 31 42 30 41 / 0 10 10 10
INL 27 35 26 38 / 10 30 30 10
BRD 30 44 29 44 / 0 10 10 20
HYR 28 43 29 44 / 10 10 10 10
ASX 32 43 31 44 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
337 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM. UPPER TROUGH MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA SLIDING EAST. CHADRON HAS REPORTED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR A WHILE BUT PINE RIDGE JUST STARTED. WILL
RETAIN SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
EASTERLY MOVEMENT AROUND 20KTS. TEMPERATURES HOLDING UP WITH CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SOME TEN DEGREES COOLER TODAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 30.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE WEST FRIDAY AND
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING EAST TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. AT THE
SFC A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE FIRST LOW IS EXPECT TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY. TRACK STILL UNCERTAIN AS MODELS CONTINUE TO WOBBLE AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO LIFT IT
QUICKLY ACROSS NW KS/S CENTRAL THEN E NEBRASKA. RAIN/THUNDER LOOKS
GOOD TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM BL
LOOKS TO KEEP THE OUR PART OF NEB DRY. MODELS HAVE EVEN CUT BACK
ON RH PERCENTAGES ALOFT WITH MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWING SCT
SKIES. THUS THINK THERE COULD BE SOME PEAKS OF SUN AND TRENDED
WITH GUIDANCE AND RAISED TEMPS.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW AS THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE MORNING. PRECIP
CHANCES SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AS THE COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDING PROFILES COOL QUICKLY WITH RAIN TO
CHANCE TO SNOW DURING THE DAY/EVENING FROM NW TO SE. THE HOLD OUT
FOR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SURF TEMPS AS THEY WARM INTO THE
40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO COOL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. GROWING CONCERN ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES...AS MODELS
ARE FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE JET SUPPORT IS QUICKER TO
PUSH EAST. MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN REDUCING QPF AMOUNTS...AND MOS
GUIDANCE HAS REDUCED POPS. DO EXPECT AT LEAST CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIP...ALTHOUGH NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OCCURS NEXT WEEK. THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO RETURN QUICKLY TO
THE HIGH PLAINS. A COUPLE DAYS AGO 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMED OUT IN
THE -10 TO -15 DEGREE C RANGE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW
REBOUND...HOWEVER NOW THEY BARELY FALL BELOW ZERO DEGREES C.
GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SUIT WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY SOME 5 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER FROM THE 12Z RUN FOR HIGHS. CLEARING SKIES AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE
TEENS...HOWEVER TEMPS ARE ABLE TO REBOUND QUICKLY...WELL INTO THE
40S AND EVEN 50S POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THE 00Z EC HAS
ARRIVED WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTION HIGHS
COULD NEAR 60 BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODEL SOLNS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 FROM KOGA NORTH BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NRN NEB OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KVTN. SOME
SOLNS LIKE THE GFS AND HRRR MODELS CARRY THE SHOWERS THROUGH KONL.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS MIGHT BE A STRETCH
BUT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS FROM 12Z ON THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1130 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST
WYOMING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...BUT DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
ISOLATED THAT MANAGES TO REACH THE GROUND. OTHERWISE A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST...WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WARMER AIR ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SURFACE.
LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE VERY MILD...NEAR 40 DEGREES. A
LITTLE COOLER FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHERE CALM WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN RISE TO UPPER 30S AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
AND WIND INCREASES.
ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL SOME...AND NOT MUCH MIXING EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S LOOK GOOD FOR MOST
LOCALS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
THE GFS40..GEMNH...NAM12 AND THE 00Z ECMWF SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE CYCLOGENESIS OVER COLORADO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. A CROSS-SECTION FROM ONEILL TO HOLDREGE SHOWS
SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 300-310K LAYER.
THE LIFTED PARCELS ARE NOWHERE NEAR SATURATED...SO ACTUAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN THE AREA INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUPER-COOLED SATURATED AIR
AND WEAK LIFT THAT IS MORE INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 30F...ANY THAT DOES FALL WILL PROBABLY FREEZE ON
SURFACES.
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE
SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH. THERE IS A
TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS40 AND THE GEMNH OF ABOUT 6 HOURS.
THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER YET. OTHERWISE...THEY ARE SHOWING A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH AN OPEN UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AT LEAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT A CROSS SECTION FROM ABOUT GILLETTE WYOMING TO
NEAR EMPORIA KANSAS AND FROM VALENTINE TO MCCOOK...THE COMBINATION
OF SYSTEM-RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-300K LAYER AND
INSTABILITY INDICATED BY FOLDED THETA-E WILL GENERATE STRONG UPWARD
MOTION. MODERATE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IN
THAT LAYER OF 1-3G/KG. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS A QUICK HIT
AND...BECAUSE IT WILL BE ONLY ABOUT EIGHT HOURS DURATION...THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. IN FACT...THE QPF OF
0.07-0.12 INDICATED BY THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. THERE IS ENOUGH
LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER THAT SNOW PRODUCTION SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT. A FORECAST SOUNDING FOR NORTH PLATTE...WHICH IS ABOUT
THE MIDDLE OF THE MAXIMUM UPWARD MOTION...SHOWS A FAIRLY WARM LAYER
BELOW 725MB WITH THE WET BULB ZERO NEAR 820MB. THAT SHOULD RESULT IN
FAIRLY RAPID COOLING AND LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE HEAVY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
THE LATEST RAP AND NAM MODEL SOLNS SUGGEST AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61 FROM KOGA NORTH BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
THROUGH NRN NEB OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS KVTN. SOME
SOLNS LIKE THE GFS AND HRRR MODELS CARRY THE SHOWERS THROUGH KONL.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS MIGHT BE A STRETCH
BUT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS FROM 12Z ON THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY EVENING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1239 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY BRING MILDER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE MAINLY
DRY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 946 PM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS. INITIAL AREA OF OVERCAST SKIES EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS
SINCE SHIFTED EASTWARD WITH INFRARED SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT UPSTREAM CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY AT MID-LEVELS.
THOUGH CLOUDINESS IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT...STILL BELIEVE THAT
LOW TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MANY AREAS AS STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS WILL HELP KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED AND WITH LOW
LEVELS WARMING. TEMPS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TREND WITH TEMPS HOVERING OR SLIGHTLY RISING FROM CURRENT READINGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.
I`VE REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH LAKE
EFFECT CAN TAKE PLACE AS RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BECOME LESS BULLISH
ON ITS POTENTIAL. THERE`S FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR LAKE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND I COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUDINESS THERE.
HOWEVER WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN UNSATURATED ICE NUCLEI
LAYER...IF ANYTHING WERE TO FALL OUT OF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IT
MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT DRIZZLE. SO I`VE OPTED TO
SIDE WITH THE HRRR AND REMOVE MENTION OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH REMAINS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S TOMORROW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA USHERING IN SOME MILDER AIR. TEMPS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUING ON SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH EACH PERIOD A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS MAX AND MIN TEMPS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
AROUND DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WILL HAVE ABV NORMAL
CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE W/ ASSOCIATED STRONG CD FRONT RESIDES OVER THE GREAT
LKS/MIDWEST REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION UNDER STRONG WAA ON
SSW FLOW. 925MB TEMPS INCR FROM 0C TO +4C ON SATURDAY TO +8C TO
+10C ON SUNDAY AS GRADIENT INCR AHEAD OF FRONT. AS A
RESULT...LOOKING FOR SUNDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE 2-DAY PERIOD
W/ HIGHS RAMPING UP FROM THE UPPER 40S/LOWS 50S TO THE 50S TO NEAR
60F IN SPOTS SUNDAY IN MANY SPOTS. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE CLD COVER
DEPENDENT AS FRONT APPROACHES FOR N NY. MDLS IN FAIR CONSENSUS
THAT FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH THRU REGION SUN NGT/MON DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE OFFSHORE. AS A RESULT...CVLY WESTWARD WILL HAVE
CHANCE FOR 50S FOR HIGHS BFR CD AIR BEHIND FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG
JET DYNAMICS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM 925MB TO 700MB COULD BRING SFC
WIND GUSTS NEAR 30-40MPH. W/ FRONT TAPPING INTO GULF
MOISTURE...MDL QPF COULD BRING 0.50-1.00" RAINFALL AMTS. AS FRONT
PASSES THRU AREA SUNDAY NGT/MONDAY...COLDER AIR ON INCR WNW FLOW
BEHIND SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANGEOVER FROM -RW TO -SW AT HIR ELEV
FIRST....THEN GOING INTO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH ENTIRE CWA
SLIPPING FROM NEAR TO BLW NORMAL TEMPS...-SW FOR ALL AREAS WITH
HIGHEST POPS ON HIR TRRN/NW FACING SLOPES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE WL BE LOW CIGS AT SLK THIS
MORNING AND WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACRS OUR
TAF SITES CREATING BREEZY SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS. THIS WL CONT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS BTWN 15 AND 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...THIS SOUTHWEST FLW WL HELP ADVECT LOW LEVEL LAKE
ENHANCED MOISTURE IN SLK TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER CIGS ANTICIPATED.
WL MENTION MVFR CIGS...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF BR/-DZ BTWN 10-16Z TODAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR
DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS WL SLOWLY BECM
MOSTLY CLR THIS AFTN...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC HIGH PRES WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE WINDS ALOFT WL BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
NEXT SYSTEM WL IMPACT REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A PERIOD
OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND MVFR CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...VERY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS BTWN 30 AND 40 KNOTS WL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRNT. THIS WL CREATE AREAS OF LLVL WS AND
TURBULENCE...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE HIGHER TRRN AND OPEN VALLEY
TERMINALS. A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WL OCCUR BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS SHIFT INTO THE SSW ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN THIS EVENING...AND
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
WAVES - BUILDING TO 2-4 FEET - WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF
THE BROAD LAKE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF GRAND ISLE. A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY LATE MORNING
THURSDAY...BUT LIKELY REMAIN S-SW 10-20 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...NEILES/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WFO BTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1046 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO COUPLED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY HAS LEAD TO STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR MAX
WINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM MANITOWOC TO DOOR COUNTY. HRRR AND RAP
SUGGEST THAT GRADIENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE AS WE
APPROACH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN SLACKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THUS EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING. OVER DOOR COUNTY MAX WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER...CLOSER TO 45 MPH INTO EARLY
EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE.
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE PASSAGE OF
RELATIVELY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN FLAT ZONAL FLOW. PRIMARY FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH RRQ OF UPPER JET AND SOME MODEST
FRONTEGENETIC FORCING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
DEPICTING A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF WEAK
SURFACE FRONT. A FEW OF THE MODELS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY
DRY...INCLUDING THE REG GEM AND WRFARW...ARE NOW SHOWING A NARROW
BAND OF VERY LIGHT QPF TO MOVE RATHER QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA
BEWTEEN ABOUT 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. ONLY MODIFIED POPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINED IN CHANCE CATEGORY. STILL APPEARS
THAT NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. AS SYSTEM IS
VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH WEAK FORCING...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF MAYBE A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. WILL
SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE GENERALLY
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY MORE MODEST ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY AS GRADIENT BAGGIER WITH APPROACHING SURFACE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS DURING THE PERIOD AS A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH UPPER
JET MAX...IN EXCESS OF 160 KNOTS...ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CANADA
HELPS TO AMPLIFY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS...WITH A STRONG FLOW OF WARM AND MOIST AIR AHEAD
OF IT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE 12Z GEM AND 12Z GFS HAD THE FIRST OF TWO SURFACE LOWS PASSING
THROUGH NORTHWEST WI/NORTHEAST MN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A SECOND
LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SOMETIME ON SUNDAY. BOTH
OF THESE MODELS SHOWED A PRETTY WIDESPREAD AREA OF QPF OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS INDICATING QPF AND MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD A SINGLE...STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT
WAS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTHWEST WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT ALSO HAD SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION FORECAST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND...AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...CHANGING FROM
RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. KEPT A CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING. LLWS SHOULD PERSIST AT RHI UNTIL AROUND 08Z...AUW/CWA
AROUND 11Z...AND ATW/GRB UNTIL 14Z. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO MAINLY SPRINKLES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP BY THURSDAY EVG...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL JUST INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ESB
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
951 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 829 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA HAVE YET TO INDICATE ANY
PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND...NOT TO SAY SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS NOT OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS. UNR AND CYS
RADARS ARE SHOWING A NICE DONUT HOLE AROUND THE RADARS INDICATIVE
OF MOISTURE NOT REACHING THE GROUND...BUT RATHER MIDLEVEL CLOUDS
AND VIRGA. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN AND SNOW AT ANY ONE LOCATION IS ON THE LOW SIDE. LATEST 00Z
NAM RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF A GREAT DEAL OVER THE 18Z RUN. GFS
RUN WILL BE IN SOON AND EXPECTING A SIMILAR RESULT. THE HRRR IS
PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS WELL. IR
SATELLITE IS ALSO LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING IF
ANYTHING. BACKED OFF ON POPS TONIGHT BUT WAS NOT QUITE CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PULL POPS OUT COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT. EITHER WAY
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN THE MOUNTAINS MAY STRUGGLE TO PICK UP
MUCH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
CURRENTLY WATCHING OBSERVATIONS SITES FROM AROUND THE AREA FOR
ANY SIGNS OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND. NAM AND GFS HAVE BIG
DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS THIS EVENING. NAM PRODUCES 3
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER NORTHERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHICH
WOULD BE EQUIVALENT TO 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE GFS DOES NOT
PRODUCE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WITH
AN INCH OR SO INTO THE SNOWY RANGE...OTHERWISE SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH
SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM...BUT
WILL BE KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RADAR THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA TO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE CWA
IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH AND WEST PARTS OF THE CWA. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTH
CENTRAL WYOMING AT 21Z. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY
EAST AND WILL BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 12Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z. SOME SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE NAM DEPICTING MORE QPF THAN THE GFS.
WILL INCREASE POPS SOME OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE SLOWLY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ONLY A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH AN INCH OR SO OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES SEEING SOME SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ENTERING CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THE AXIS WILL BE BE NEAR THE WESTERN WYOMING
BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THAT FEATURE WILL
BE ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION AT THAT TIME...OVER UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE CWA FRIDAY ALONG
WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE SNOWY AND
SIERRA MADRE RANGES SHOULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY STILL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
CWA DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...OROGRAPHICS WILL PRODUCE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THAT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY 18Z SATURDAY WILL ALREADY BE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIGGING. THE TIMING OF THAT FEATURE IS STILL
HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY MODELS. THE ECMWF IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE
GFS...BUT IS TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TOWARD THE GFS. THE
TROUGH AXIS ON BOTH MODELS IS EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z SUNDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BEHIND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BETTER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW
OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE 300 MB JET
WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION DURING THAT TIME. FOR NOW HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS...WITH POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATING
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS
PAINTING SOME JET AIDED QPF OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE CWA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT
REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE CWA FOR TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE GFS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY QPF.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 943 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND TRAILING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ARE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. SOME OF THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
TOPS MAY BE OBSCURED DO TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SNOW...OTHERWISE
MAINLY LOOKING AT VFR TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. ANY MVFR CIGS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL ERODE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTER A MILD...DRY AND BREEZY DAY TODAY...A SERIES
OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
EACH FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND WILL BE
MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LIEBL
SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...WEILAND
AVIATION...LIEBL
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1025 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY
THEN PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
MILDER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RETURN TO MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALREADY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS UNDER SUNNY SKIES. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND FEW EDITS WERE MADE.
7 AM UPDATE...
EVALUATING H925 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +4-6C...AND
ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX-UP TO THIS PRESSURE LEVEL
RESULTING IN A DRY-ADIABATIC PROFILE THROUGHOUT...THEN IT IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /PRESENT CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS/ THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WILL GET INTO THE LOW-
50S. UTILIZING NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR FORECASTED
HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE... BUT FOR NOW TONED IT DOWN BASED ON THE PRIOR
FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTLINING THE
ANTICIPATED WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE. H850 JET ON ORDER OF 35-40
KNOTS WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...
PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECASTED HIGHS ARE FOR THE LOW-50S ACROSS THE LOWER INTERIOR...
WITH UPPER-40S ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
W-SW WINDS CONTINUE...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND +7C TO +8C THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL WORK IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH THE LIGHT/VRBL OR
CALM WINDS...RANGING TO AROUND 40 ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
DEWPTS WILL START TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
FRIDAY...
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS SE MA AND THE S COAST. EXPECT BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* DRY WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
* WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE SUNDAY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY
* ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY MIDWEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
WHILE TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED...SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. FEEL
THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF TWO FACTORS: ONE, THAT PACIFIC ENERGY TO
EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS HAS NOT BEEN WELL SAMPLED, AND
TWO, THAT SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY AS TO THE INTERACTION AND
POSSIBLE PHASING OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE VARIANCE AND VARIABILITY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT PER ENSEMBLE MEMBER
SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS OF FORECAST
NAO/AO TELECONNECTIONS...THOUGH A TREND TOWARDS A NEAR-NEUTRAL STATE
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST WEEK.
GIVEN THAT BROAD-SCALE TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND FOLLOWING
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC/HPC...A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IS
FAVORED.
*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY AIR AND DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD
QUIET. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN A REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND BROAD-ASCENT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ISENTROPIC MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-50S WITH LOWS AROUND THE
MID 30S.
*/SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...
A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS CERTAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND LONGEVITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN. NOTED EARLIER...
PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES ARE ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...THERE IS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE LOCALIZED SHOULD AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS OUR AREA AS
CONTINUALLY SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. WITH MINOR TO MODERATE DROUGHT
ESTIMATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT AS AGREED UPON BY ALL SOLUTIONS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
FLOODING. ALSO THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY...SO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER.
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS UNDER QUESTION...WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM-MOIST ADVECTION NORTHWARD PER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORELINE
BUT DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GALES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
ALSO ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT OUTCOMES.
*/WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...
COLD DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS
PREVAILING INTO ROUGHLY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH SITUATED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST RESULTING IN RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
25 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...STRONGER ALONG THE SOUTH
COASTLINE WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT AS VFR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL...BUT RETURN TOMORROW ALONG
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TERMINALS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS LATE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY LATE. INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
*/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD -RA WITH POSSIBLE +RA RESULTING
IN IFR VSBYS. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INITIALLY INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORELINE
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
LATE BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REMAINING BLUSTERY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL CRAFTS ARE UP FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE COD WHERE
GUSTS WILL REACH 35 KT. HAVE PUT GALES UP THERE. AS THE JET MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W-SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE OUTER WATERS EARLY. SMALL CRAFTS ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD COME DOWN EARLY...BUT WILL REMAIN UP ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY LATE. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER ALL WATERS.
*/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS INITIALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THE STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH WATERS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO BE ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A TIME
OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT INNER BAYS AND HARBORS.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REMAINING BLUSTERY. GALES MAY CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS. SEAS TO REMAIN CHOPPY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH
RETURN W-SW FLOW IN PLACE INTO THIS WEEKEND. VERY LOW DEWPTS
REMAIN IN PLACE...IN THE TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL RISE ONLY
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING
THE DAY. WILL ALSO SEE W-SW WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
TODAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS ALONG
WITH THE INCREASING WIND ESPECIALLY ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/N CT
INTO N RI AND THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THERE MAY BE
CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.
FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 PERCENT AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE S COAST. HOWEVER...W-SW WINDS WILL BE LOWER...
THOUGH MAY GUST UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS N RI AND INTERIOR SE MA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232-
251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234-250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...RLG/SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
642 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY
THEN PUSH SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW
MILDER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RETURN TO MUCH
COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS ARE ACTUALLY WARMING BY A FEW DEGREES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS OF 4 AM...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND HAD WARMED BY A FEW
DEGREES...PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
EVALUATING H925 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND +4-6C...AND
ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX-UP TO THIS PRESSURE LEVEL
RESULTING IN A DRY-ADIABATIC PROFILE THROUGHOUT...THEN IT IS
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE /PRESENT CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS/ THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WILL GET INTO THE LOW-
50S. UTILIZING NEAR- TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR FORECASTED
HIGHS AROUND THE MID-50S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE...
BUT FOR NOW TONED IT DOWN BASED ON THE PRIOR FORECAST.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTLINING THE
ANTICIPATED WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE. H850 JET ON ORDER OF 35-40
KNOTS WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...
PUSHING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.
FORECASTED HIGHS ARE FOR THE LOW-50S ACROSS THE LOWER INTERIOR...
WITH UPPER-40S ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...
W-SW WINDS CONTINUE...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WORK IN...WITH H85 TEMPS
AROUND +7C TO +8C THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SOME CLOUDS WILL WORK IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH THE LIGHT/VRBL OR
CALM WINDS...RANGING TO AROUND 40 ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET.
DEWPTS WILL START TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
FRIDAY...
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ACROSS SE MA AND THE S COAST. EXPECT BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE MILDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S...RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* DRY WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND
* WIDESPREAD RAIN LATE SUNDAY POSSIBLY AS LATE AS TUESDAY
* ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR BY MIDWEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
WHILE TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED...SPECIFICS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. FEEL
THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF TWO FACTORS: ONE, THAT PACIFIC ENERGY TO
EVOLVE INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS HAS NOT BEEN WELL SAMPLED, AND
TWO, THAT SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY AS TO THE INTERACTION AND
POSSIBLE PHASING OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE VARIANCE AND VARIABILITY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT PER ENSEMBLE MEMBER
SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYSIS OF FORECAST
NAO/AO TELECONNECTIONS...THOUGH A TREND TOWARDS A NEAR-NEUTRAL STATE
HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST WEEK.
GIVEN THAT BROAD-SCALE TRENDS ARE WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND FOLLOWING
GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY WPC/HPC...A BLEND OF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS IS
FAVORED.
*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY AIR AND DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PERIOD
QUIET. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN
CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE AREA IN A REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AND BROAD-ASCENT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH ISENTROPIC MOIST ASCENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...HIGHS AROUND THE LOW-50S WITH LOWS AROUND THE
MID 30S.
*/SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...
A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS CERTAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND LONGEVITY REMAIN UNCERTAIN. NOTED EARLIER...
PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES ARE ROUGHLY 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...THERE IS THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL BE LOCALIZED SHOULD AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS OUR AREA AS
CONTINUALLY SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF. WITH MINOR TO MODERATE DROUGHT
ESTIMATED ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FRONT AS AGREED UPON BY ALL SOLUTIONS...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
FLOODING. ALSO THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH INSTABILITY...SO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THUNDER.
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS UNDER QUESTION...WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM-MOIST ADVECTION NORTHWARD PER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORELINE
BUT DO NOT FEEL THEY WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. GALES WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
ALSO ULTIMATELY DETERMINE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT OUTCOMES.
*/WEDNESDAY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...
COLD DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS
PREVAILING INTO ROUGHLY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HIGH SITUATED
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST RESULTING IN RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. DISSIPATING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIGS. INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS LATE MORNING
INTO AFTERNOON...STRONGER ALONG THE SOUTH COASTLINE WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS RELAX TONIGHT AS VFR CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL...BUT RETURN TOMORROW ALONG THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY LATE. INCREASING
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
*/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
LOW-END VFR TO MVFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD -RA WITH POSSIBLE +RA RESULTING
IN IFR VSBYS. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INITIALLY INCREASING OUT OF
THE SOUTH THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH-SHORELINE
WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE TERMINALS
LATE BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REMAINING BLUSTERY.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH MIDDAY. SMALL CRAFTS ARE UP FOR ALL
WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS TO E OF CAPE COD WHERE
GUSTS WILL REACH 35 KT. HAVE PUT GALES UP THERE. AS THE JET MOVES
OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SEAS BUILD UP TO 6-8 FT ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W-SW WINDS TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
ON THE OUTER WATERS EARLY. SMALL CRAFTS ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
SHOULD COME DOWN EARLY...BUT WILL REMAIN UP ON THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT MAINLY FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT.
FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS TO CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT
ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS...THOUGH SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
*/FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY LATE. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER ALL WATERS.
*/SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS INITIALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH THE STRONGEST OF WHICH
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH WATERS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. ANTICIPATE SEAS TO BE ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A TIME
OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT INNER BAYS AND HARBORS.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY REMAINING BLUSTERY. GALES MAY CONTINUE FOR ALL
WATERS. SEAS TO REMAIN CHOPPY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST WITH
RETURN W-SW FLOW IN PLACE INTO THIS WEEKEND. VERY LOW DEWPTS
REMAIN IN PLACE...IN THE TEENS EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL RISE ONLY
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE S COAST...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING
THE DAY. WILL ALSO SEE W-SW WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
TODAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WITH THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS ALONG
WITH THE INCREASING WIND ESPECIALLY ACROSS E AND CENTRAL MA/N CT
INTO N RI AND THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...THERE MAY BE
CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.
FRIDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND
35 PERCENT AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS
AWAY FROM THE S COAST. HOWEVER...W-SW WINDS WILL BE LOWER...
THOUGH MAY GUST UP TO 20 MPH ACROSS N RI AND INTERIOR SE MA.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ232.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ233-234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
FIRE WEATHER...EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWING
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHWEST
INTO WYOMING. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY... AND WILL HELP
PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MID-HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BLOSSOMED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY... WITH
SOME PCPN OCCURRING UP AROUND 8-10K FT AGL OR SO. THERE IS SOME PCPN
REACHING THE GROUND OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA... BUT OVERALL
THINGS ARE VIRGA GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WHICH WAS QUITE
APPARENT ON THE KMPX... KABR... AND KOAX 00Z SOUNDINGS. AS THIS
SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST TODAY IT MAY EVENTUALLY MANAGE TO GET SOME
PCPN TO THE GROUND. THE 03Z HOPWRF KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
ALOFT... BUT SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR
SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS
THE MOST AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING SOME PCPN... BUT THE ECMWF ALSO
PRODUCES SOME. FORCING IS DECENT... WITH A BAND OF DPVA AND SOME
UPPER DIVERGENCE... BUT MOISTURE IS THE OBVIOUS MISSING COMPONENT.
THE THALER QG DIAGNOSTICS SWING THROUGH MOST OF THE FORCING THIS
MORNING... WITH SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMPLEST THING TO DO IS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST... WHICH
INCLUDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTH/EAST PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF
FREEZING PCPN CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING IN CASE IN PCPN OCCURS
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AOB FREEZING... SINCE CURRENT
OBS OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUGGEST SOME LOCAL READINGS ARE DOWN
IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE... WE/LL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ARRIVE
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TONIGHT... BUT WILL BE RIGHT BACK INTO RETURN
FLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH BASICALLY ONE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD DRIVE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS MN/WI ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY. THE ECWMF AND
GEM ARE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN TWO
PARTS. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS YIELDS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MN/WI SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MN/WI. A
SECOND LOW THEN RIDES NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO EASTERN
WI FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW/MID LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILE FROM THE ECMWF IS TOO WARM FOR MUCH SNOW AT THIS TIME IN
MN WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN WESTERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD AIR IS MOVING IN ABOUT AS FAST
AS THE MOISTURE IS LEAVING... SO THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY.
IT WILL CERTAINLY TURN WINDY AND COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE DROP IN HIGHS FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 15 DEGREES OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARMING TREND DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED BY A CATEGORY OR MORE IF THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS MORE ON TARGET THEN THE REST. IN
FACT THE ECMX MOS INDICATES MIDDLE 40S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY
(WEDNESDAY). THE MAIN CULPRIT DRAGGING DOWN THE CR EXTEND HIGHS
WAS DGEX WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY... BRINGING MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SOME CEILINGS AOA 5K FT
AGL COULD OCCUR FOR A SHORT TIME ALONG WITH SOME SPRINKLES... BUT
THAT SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THINGS. WINDS WILL VEER AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH... THEN BEGIN TO BACK AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS BACK UP OVER THE REGION. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT... BUT AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AROUND TO KEEP IT
FROM HAPPENING. HOWEVER... THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH MINIMAL UNCERTAINTY. THERE
COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER CEILINGS FOR A SHORT TIME TODAY... BUT
THEY WOULD STILL BE VFR. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MVFR FOG LATE
TONIGHT... BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED LATE. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH RAIN... IFR
POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH RAIN...
IFR POSSIBLE. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW... IFR POSSIBLE EARLY. WEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING
NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO
20 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
158 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING EAST OVER OUR CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WITH DRY LAYER AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE RFW CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA WAA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK
TO OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING LOW
TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN HOW LOW I
WENT...BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AT
LEAST IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE RFW CRITERIA MET AT LEAST ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT
OF OUR CWA. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MEETING
CRITERIA. IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL GET A FULL 3HR OF RFW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO I DECIDED TO START WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
INTI AL CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AS A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE
AROUND THE BASE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING DRIER AND DRIER WITH THESE
SYSTEMS AND WITH LATEST SREF AND GEFS DATA BACKING OFF OF POP
VALUES...THINK LOWERING POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME. AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE PERIOD OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE
FORCING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH DRY PROFILES AND
AFOREMENTIONED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS...DO NOT THINK REALIZATION
OF INSTABILITY IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR.
OTHER CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGH SAGS TO
THE SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AM NOT
EXPECTING WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING FOR ADVISORY TYPE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-THURSDAY)...BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE
RIDGING EXPECTED BEFORE A ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOMEWHAT
PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH LEADING TO PREDOMINATELY WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR THICK MOUNTAIN CIRRUS DUE TO STRONG CROSS
MOUNTAIN FLOW LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON HOW WARM THINGS WILL GET...BUT
CONTINUED WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. KMCK SHOULD
SEE WINDS DIMINISH FIRST WITH GRADIENT ALREADY BEGINNING TO RELAX.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
LIKELY WONT INCREASE AT KMCK UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1252 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
WESTERN KS. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS IS SPREADING EAST OVER OUR CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS OUR CWA THIS MORNING IS NOW OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
WITH DRY LAYER AND ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTH...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POSSIBLE RFW CONDITIONS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
SW FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA WAA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BACK
TO OUR AREA...ALONG WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS. I FOLLOWED THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND AND BUMPED TEMPS UP A LITTLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA WHERE HIGHS AROUND 70F ARE LIKELY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS...SUPPORTING LOW
TD VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON. I WAS CONSERVATIVE IN HOW LOW I
WENT...BUT STILL ENDED UP WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AT
LEAST IN THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD SEE RFW CRITERIA MET AT LEAST ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT
OF OUR CWA. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST I AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN MEETING
CRITERIA. IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL GET A FULL 3HR OF RFW
CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SO I DECIDED TO START WITH A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MST WED NOV 13 2013
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS ENTIRELY BUT WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW IN THE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE
OTHER MAJOR MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE BEHIND
THAT SYSTEM WHICH WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WARMED UP TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS ISC ALLOWED...PROBABLY
NOT ENOUGH...FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1009 AM MST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. KMCK SHOULD
SEE WINDS DIMINISH FIRST WITH GRADIENT ALREADY BEGINNING TO RELAX.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO. CURRENTLY EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND 14Z WITH GUSTS TO 30KT. WINDS
LIKELY WONT INCREASE AT KMCK UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ013-027-041.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ253-254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A dry air mass with low dew points will promote efficient cooling
tonight, however WAA and mid/high clouds will temper the drop-off and
keep overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A weak disturbance was located over central NM around 21z per water
vapor imagery and recent RAP 1.5 PVU analyses. This feature will
quickly swing through TX tonight before reaching AR and MS tomorrow.
Although the air mass over MO/IL remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles
or light rain showers are possible over the eastern Ozarks on Fri
morning before this vort max lifts away from the area.
Look for a continued warming trend through the weekend due to
persistent southwest surface flow along with warming temperatures
aloft. Highs will probably reach the mid to upper 70s on Sun despite
substantial cloud cover and periods of precipitation. High
temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s early next week
after a strong cold front moves across the region on Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will increase on Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the surface high over the southeast US and the
developing low pressure system over the plains. Expect breezy
conditions through Sun with the highest wind speeds and gusts on
Sat.
Two low pressure systems are expected to affect our area this
weekend. The first vort max was located near the WA coast around 18z
this afternoon and is forecast to reach KS by Sat. The LLJ induced
by this feature will interact with a lifting warm front to produce
an area of rain on late Fri night and Sat morning. PW values are
forecast to rise to around 1.2" by Sat, which is around +2 SD for
November, so plenty of moisture will be available. There will
probably be a break in the rain sometime on Sat aftn between
systems. A stronger vort max is forecast to cross the Rockies and
induce surface cyclogenesis along the pre-existing baroclinic zone
over OK/KS on Sat night. Instability and lift ahead of this system
should support an area of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
The attendant cold front then moves through the CWA on Sun aftn/eve
as the system lifts towards the Great Lakes and begins to occlude.
With substantial shear in place along with at least some
instability, there is a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sun
ahead of the advancing cold front. Although there are some timing
differences between models, most of the latest model runs bring the
cold front through the LSX CWA before 00z Mon. Such timing would
limit the severe weather threat across our area to the far eastern
CWA at most. If future model runs support a slower fropa, then there
may be more of a concern for severe thunderstorms.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Primary weather concern this afternoon will be south to southwest
winds that will occasionally gust into the 20-25 kt range...mainly
over the northwest half of the CWA. These winds will diminish
heading into the early evening hours, and ramping up of low level
jet may cause some LLWS concerns after 03z. Progged low level
winds from NAM are just a bit below LLWS criteria but it will be
close, and evening shift will need to keep an eye on this. While
any cloudiness through this evening will be limited to cirrus,
lower level moisture return on Friday morning should mean a
gradual lowering of cigs but attm it appears cloud bases will
remain aoa 5kft.
Specifics for KSTL: Winds of 200-210 degrees will occasionally
gust to around 20 kts this afternoon, with surface winds backing a
bit and rapidly diminishing into the 8-10kt range by early this
evening. As mentioned in primary AFD will need to keep an eye on
LLWS potential later this evening and overnight, as winds at the
1500-2000 agl are progged to increase into the 35-40kt range.
Cloudiness through 06z will be aoa 10kft.
Truett
&&
.CLIMATE:
Issued at 348 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Record highs for Sunday, November 17th
STL 78 1958
COU 78 1958
UIN 78 1952
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
338 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A dry air mass with low dew points will promote efficient cooling
tonight, however WAA and mid/high clouds will temper the drop-off and
keep overnight lows in the mid 30s.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
A weak disturbance was located over central NM around 21z per water
vapor imagery and recent RAP 1.5 PVU analyses. This feature will
quickly swing through TX tonight before reaching AR and MS tomorrow.
Although the air mass over MO/IL remains fairly dry, a few sprinkles
or light rain showers are possible over the eastern Ozarks on Fri
morning before this vort max lifts away from the area.
Look for a continued warming trend through the weekend due to
persistent southwest surface flow along with warming temperatures
aloft. Highs will probably reach the mid to upper 70s on Sun despite
substantial cloud cover and periods of precipitation. High
temperatures will fall back into the 30s and 40s early next week
after a strong cold front moves across the region on Sunday
afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds will increase on Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens between the surface high over the southeast US and the
developing low pressure system over the plains. Expect breezy
conditions through Sun with the highest wind speeds and gusts on
Sat.
Two low pressure systems are expected to affect our area this
weekend. The first vort max was located near the WA coast around 18z
this afternoon and is forecast to reach KS by Sat. The LLJ induced
by this feature will interact with a lifting warm front to produce
an area of rain on late Fri night and Sat morning. PW values are
forecast to rise to around 1.2" by Sat, which is around +2 SD for
November, so plenty of moisture will be available. There will
probably be a break in the rain sometime on Sat aftn between
systems. A stronger vort max is forecast to cross the Rockies and
induce surface cyclogenesis along the pre-existing baroclinic zone
over OK/KS on Sat night. Instability and lift ahead of this system
should support an area of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
The attendant cold front then moves through the CWA on Sun aftn/eve
as the system lifts towards the Great Lakes and begins to occlude.
With substantial shear in place along with at least some
instability, there is a potential for severe thunderstorms on Sun
ahead of the advancing cold front. Although there are some timing
differences between models, most of the latest model runs bring the
cold front through the LSX CWA before 00z Mon. Such timing would
limit the severe weather threat across our area to the far eastern
CWA at most. If future model runs support a slower fropa, then there
may be more of a concern for severe thunderstorms.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2013
Primary weather concern this afternoon will be south to southwest
winds that will occasionally gust into the 20-25 kt range...mainly
over the northwest half of the CWA. These winds will diminish
heading into the early evening hours, and ramping up of low level
jet may cause some LLWS concerns after 03z. Progged low level
winds from NAM are just a bit below LLWS criteria but it will be
close, and evening shift will need to keep an eye on this. While
any cloudiness through this evening will be limited to cirrus,
lower level moisture return on Friday morning should mean a
gradual lowering of cigs but attm it appears cloud bases will
remain aoa 5kft.
Specifics for KSTL: Winds of 200-210 degrees will occasionally
gust to around 20 kts this afternoon, with surface winds backing a
bit and rapidly diminishing into the 8-10kt range by early this
evening. As mentioned in primary AFD will need to keep an eye on
LLWS potential later this evening and overnight, as winds at the
1500-2000 agl are progged to increase into the 35-40kt range.
Cloudiness through 06z will be aoa 10kft.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
1000 AM PST Thu Nov 14 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of dense fog will continue over the Lewiston area into this
afternoon. A weak weather system today may produce a few showers
mainly over the mountains. A major weather change is expected to
arrive Friday as a strong weather system from the northwest brings
rain and snow to most of the region. Heavy snow accumulations are
possible in the mountains...as well as the northern valleys and
Idaho Panhandle. Colder air will seep in from Canada on Saturday
behind a cold front with much cooler temperatures through early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Update...A weak weather system will track across the area today
bringing mainly mid level clouds above areas of low level stratus
that lingers cross the area due to a moist boundary layer. Models
show a pocket of mid level instability over Northwest Washington
this morning tracking into south Central Washington this
afternoon. In addition the best lift will also track in this area
giving the Cascade crest the best chance of showers with a few
showers also possible along the East Slopes. With only weak
upslope into the Idaho Panhandle, and best dynamic tracking well
west of this area...GFS, NAM, and HRRR show very little shower
activity and shower coverage has been lowered for Sandpoint,
Kellogg, and Lookout Pass.
Overall fog coverage is diminishing this morning but remains dense
in the Lewiston area. This weak system passing through today may
allow for some improvement...but this will likely be a slow
process given fog and stratus is trapped in the valley. Thus areas
of fog has been extended into the afternoon and have adjusted highs
down into the mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: A moist boundary layer will linger though 18z Friday
resulting in continued areas of stratus. Most of the stratus has
lifted into 3000-4000 ft AGL except KLWS where VLIFR persists.
Model guidance is not handling this well so confidence is low. The
fog should begin to lift after 22z with a weak system passing
through and then mid level clouds should prevent fog from
reforming tonight. Again however this is a low confidence
forecast. As the next system approaches tonight south-southwest
winds will aid in increasing low level moisture with IFR/MVFR
stratus likely increasing around KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW by 12z. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 45 33 37 32 33 24 / 10 10 100 100 90 30
Coeur d`Alene 46 34 37 32 32 23 / 10 20 90 100 100 30
Pullman 46 32 38 33 35 26 / 10 10 90 100 90 30
Lewiston 46 35 44 35 39 30 / 10 10 50 90 80 30
Colville 45 33 38 32 34 17 / 10 10 100 100 90 30
Sandpoint 44 33 36 31 32 19 / 20 20 100 100 100 30
Kellogg 41 34 36 31 32 21 / 20 30 90 100 100 70
Moses Lake 49 31 45 34 41 28 / 10 0 20 20 10 10
Wenatchee 50 35 45 31 41 28 / 10 0 10 20 10 10
Omak 47 32 42 29 36 21 / 10 0 20 30 20 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
night for Central Panhandle Mountains.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon
for Northern Panhandle.
WA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday
night for Northeast Blue Mountains.
Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon
for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
322 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
322 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN CHANCES INTO
THIS EVENING AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
WATER VAPOR COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWING A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST OUT OF THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION. RAP SHOWING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 300MB JET
COUPLED WITH FAIRLY STRONG 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS OUR REGION
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL WAVE. RESULT...PER REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATION WAS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST WI THROUGH WINONA AND LA CROSSE...TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTH CENTRAL IA. CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK IN THE UPPER
30S TO THE MID 40S.
WILL BE WATCHING THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO SLIP EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER FRONTOGENESIS EXITING EAST EARLY
ON IN THE EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING AND END TO ANY LIGHT RAIN
ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TOWARD MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING A GENERAL CLEARING TREND
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONCERN THEN
BECOMES FOG POTENTIAL WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER GIVEN TODAY/S LIGHT RAINFALL. WENT WITH AREAS
OF FOG IN THE MAIN RIVER STEMS AND PATCH FOG ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSE OVERNIGHT AS ANY FURTHER CLEARING/RADIATIONAL
COOLING COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF DENSE FOG IN THE MORNING AROUND
COMMUTE TIME.
FOR FRIDAY...MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING THE INVERSION BREAKING AROUND
NOON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPART
HIGH AND IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TERRITORY AS READING REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WITH INCREASING 290K ISENTROPIC LIFT/850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS STRONGEST OF THIS FORCING WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING FOR BEST CHANCE OF COLUMN
SATURATION/RAINFALL. WENT WITH A SMALL/20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
WEST OF A CHARLES CITY TO ROCHESTER LINE AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW/INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) 330 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LOOK FOR A RAPID EXPANSION OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
AS BROADSCALE SOUTHERLY FLOW/LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVE SQUARELY
INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY. MILD/MOIST CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH DYNAMICS/MID-LEVEL STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO PRODUCE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER BY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN AND POCKETS OF THUNDER TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
MODELS ON INTENSITY AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ALL POINT
TOWARD OUR AREA BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THE
ECMWF. THE NAM PRODUCES 1200-1500J/KG OF 0-3KM ML MUCAPE SUNDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST WI IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AMPLE
BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS..WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AT ODDS ON MOVEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING SLOWER/MORE
INTENSE AS IT LIFTS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD PRODUCE
DEFORMATION RAIN CHANGING TO POSSIBLY MEASURABLE SNOW FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHERHAND IS MORE OPEN/PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
LOW...LIFTING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT...WHICH PRODUCES A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.
COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI IN THIS COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 30S.
A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A QUIET PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY THOUGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
1144 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
BROAD TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN STATES HAS CREATED MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN BACK TO
NORTHWEST IOWA. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EVEN WITH THIS. BAND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH MODEL HINTS OF
WEAKENING IN FORCING AS IT DOES. BESIDES OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO...MINIMAL IMPACT. WEAKENING NATURE OF PASSING SYSTEM
LIKELY WILL NOT CREATE MUCH OF A WIND SHIFT EITHER.
WITH TEMPERATURES BEING HELD BACK A BIT TODAY...AND SMALL AMOUNT OF
RAIN FALLING...COULD SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SATURATION AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER TONIGHT FOR PATCHY FOG. HIGHEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ALONG
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND EAST. IF FOG DOES FORM IT SHOULD BE SHALLOW
AND BURN OFF QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
THIS EVENING BUT FOR NOW KEPT FOG IN VICINITY OF TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...SHEA
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE/RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF JET STREAK IS PRODUCING A BAND OF SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
FROM NORTHWEST IOWA TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. A FEW OBS OVER SW
WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING THE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...AND THINK THE
SAME CAN BE SAID OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THIS BAND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND REACH THE FOX VALLEY BEFORE 00Z. CLEARING SKIES ARE WORKING
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MIDDLE 50S. THEN ANOTHER AREA OF STRATUS IS WORKING
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST
CONCERNS INCLUDE CLOUD AND LIGHT PRECIP TRENDS...FOLLOWED BY
TEMPS.
TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE EXITING BY MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
GOING INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. ONCE MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
DEPART EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE IN THE EVENING...MODELS SHOW
MID-LEVEL DRYING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THINK THIS WILL
LEAD TO CLEARING ACROSS ALL BUT FAR N-C WISCONSIN. AREA OF CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA LOOK TO AT LEAST GRAZE
NORTHERN WISCONSIN...SO HAVE KEPT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
GOING THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING WHERE SKIES CLEAR OUT...AND WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF DEWPOINTS CAN RISE INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S..LIKE
THEY DID OVER MINNESOTA. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...BUT THERE
MAY BE TOO MUCH WIND FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...SO LOW STRATUS IS A BETTER
OPTION. AFTER PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING...WILL INCREASE
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT WITH ANTICIPATION OF STRATUS DEVELOPING. THE
SREF SUPPORTS THIS IDEA. CONTINUED TO GO WITH THE WARMER SIDE OF
TEMPS TONIGHT...WHICH PLACES THEM IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
FRIDAY...WEAK ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING...BUT LOSE DEFINITION
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SCT OR BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...ANY SHALLOW FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY...WHICH
WILL LEAVE A MOSTLY SUNNY OR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
PLENTY OF CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY
CENTERED AROUND A SECONDARY LOW PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN
EJECTING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES. LOOKING AT HPC DISCUSSIONS...THEY FAVOR USING THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL
MODELS THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. NOT CONVINCED SLOWER IS
BETTER IN THIS INSTANCE SINCE THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF BLOCKING ACROSS
THE CONTINENT AND THERE IS A 150KT RELATIVELY ZONAL JET UPSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH. THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. SO
WITH CONFLICTING SIGNALS...GUESS ITS BEST TO GO WITH AN ECMWF/GFS
BLEND TO MITIGATE THESE DIFFERENCES.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL SIDE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...A 50+KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND
TRANSPORT MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE. WITH DECENT -DIVQ IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS...AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW
LEVELS...RAIN IS A SOLID BET LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WILL INCREASE POPS. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL BE
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
REGION GETS TEMPORARILY DRY SLOTTED. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LEFT THOUGH...AND WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF CLOUDY COVER AND MAYBE PATCHY
DRIZZLE/FOG LEFT OVER. PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY HAD THIS COVERED PRETTY
WELL. THE SECONDARY LOW WILL THEN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
LIFT NE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVE WITH THIS LOW...HEAVIEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO
REMAIN ALL LIQUID. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPS.
REST OF THE FORECAST...THE SURFACE LOW WILL EXIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS ANTICIPATED AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND
THE CYCLONE. CANNOT GET EXCITED ABOUT ACCUMS THOUGH...UNTIL MORE
CONSENSUS DEVELOPS IN THE DETAILS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION
WORKS OUT...WIND HEADLINES WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOUDY AND COLD ON
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 20S AND 30S. THEN A SLOW WARMING
TREND ENSUES MID-WEEK ONWARD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF PERIOD...BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME
CONCERNS. WEAK FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED...WHICH LEADS TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
RATHER LOW ALTHOUGH THEY ARE INCREASING GRADUALLY. NOT SURE IF
THEY WILL INCREASE ENOUGH THOUGH...SO TRENDED VSBYS DOWN A LITTLE
AT THE MORE FOG PRONE AREAS AT AUW AND RHI. MVFR STRATUS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS MOVING EAST AND COULD GRAZE NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...THE FOG CONCERN WILL DIMINISH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
WEST TO NORTHWEST GALES ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC