Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/12/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
TUESDAY, THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE RAPID PROGRESS TOWARD OUR
REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE OR TIMING. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM
USED LAV GUIDANCE FOR UPDATES THROUGH 100 AM WITH THE GRIDS FOR
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED. WINDS
HAVE BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN SW GRADIENT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LATEST RUC GUIDANCE WAS USED
FOR WIND FORECAST OVER NEXT 6 HOURS.
THE VERY STRONG CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE
AREA DURG THE MRNG HOURS. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION FROM SW TO NW
AND GUSTY WIND.
AT THE ONSET, PRECIP WILL BE ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE
AS TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM. HOWEVER, AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION MOVES
IN, PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW FROM THE NW. THE GROUND IS
STILL WARM AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE POCONOS AND FAR NWRN NJ.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SO ANY SNOW THAT MIXES IN WOULD LIKELY NOT STICK ON ROADS ETC,
MAINLY ON COOLER GRASSY SURFACES, CARS ETC. THE MAIN QUESTION
FURTHER S AND E IS IF THERE WILL BE BURST OF SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK
THAT COULD DROP A QUICK COATING OR COUPLE OF TENTHS EVEN ALG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SEWD PROGRESSION AND WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIP IS BEHIND THE FRONT, IT SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE DURG THE
ERLY MRNG NW AND LATE MRNG SE, WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY BUT COLD AND
WINDY DAY IN STORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE OUT OF THE 30S IN MANY
AREAS AND IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER WITH A GUST NW WIND IN THE 10 TO
20 AND POSSIBLY HIGHER RANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMM OVER THE
CONUS, BOTH OF THEM SHOWED SLIGHTLY MORE ERRORS (IN BOTH
DIRECTIONS) IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CANADA. OVERALL IT APPEARS AS A
WASH. AT 850MB THE GFS LOOKED BETTER, 925MB THE WRF-NMMB, ANY
ERRORS TENDED TO BE COLD BY ABOUT A DEGREE.
THE LAST SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROF IS YET TO MOVE THROUGH
OUR CWA AS WE START TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED,
THE CAP IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH. NOT SURE IF THE LAKE EFFECT TRAJECTORY
WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA, ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING LIKELIER THAN
YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS, WE DID ADD SOME FLURRIES NORTHWEST. IT
REMAINS MORE OF AN ADVECTION NIGHT THAN RADIATIONAL NIGHT AND STAT
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND
SUCCESSIVE RUNS. GIVEN ITS CLOSE TO CONTINUITY, WE DID NOT DIFFER
MUCH. BY NOW CLIMO SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE STAT GUIDANCE AS WE
ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE ZERO HOUR. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIR MASS, ANY ERRORS MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.
THE THERMAL TROF PASSES EARLY WEDNESDAY AND JUST A QUESTION OF HOW
MUCH OF AN AIR MASS RECOVERY BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP IS FORECAST TO BE STILL WITHIN REACH IN THE MORNING, BUT WELL
BEYOND BY THE AFTERNOON ALL AREAS. THERE IS TREMENDOUS RIDGING
FORECAST WITH 500MB HEIGHT RISES ON THE ORDER OF 200M. TOUGH TO
MUSTER MANY CLOUDS IN THAT SCENARIO. BECAUSE THE FORECAST 925MB/850MB
TEMPS ARE STILL PRETTY LOW AT 18Z, WE REMAINED PRETTY CONSERVATIVE
WITH FCST MAX TEMPS. WITH LIKELY PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, ITS
NOT GOING TO FEEL THAT MUCH BETTER EITHER.
BETTER CHANCE AT RADIATING AS WINDS DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE SHOWING MORE OF A MIN TEMP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN COASTAL AND
URBAN AREAS AND MORE RURAL SPOTS THAN TUESDAY NIGHT FAVORING GOING
BELOW STAT GUIDANCE IN THESE LATTER PLACES. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR.
THE AIR MASS RECOVERY SHOULD BECOME MORE APPARENT AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES AND WHAT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARM AIR
ALOFT RETURNING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWEST THAN SOUTHEAST AND THUS LESS
OF A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS OUR CWA THAN AVERAGE. HERE WE
LIKE THE WARMER EC STAT GUIDANCE AS PRETTY STEADY FCSTS OF 925MB
TEMPS OF AROUND 6C SHOULD GET MOST OF OUR CWA INTO THE 50S.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION STARTING WITH A GOOD
NIGHT FRO RADIATIONAL COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH MODELED MEAN RH
FROM 1000-500 MB RELATIVITY LOW DID UNDERCUT WPC SKY GRIDS, MOSTLY
SUNNY AND CLEAR OVERALL. WENT WARMER THAN MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS, MORE IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON 850
MB TEMPS AND THAT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... A FEW FEATURES OF INTEREST HAVE ENTERED
INTO TODAY`S DISCUSSION WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE FIRST IS A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND SECOND IS A
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COAST MOVING
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND. THE WEEK COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER. FEATURE NUMBER TWO LOOKS
MORE WELL DEFINED TODAY COMPARED TO TWENTY FOUR HOURS AGO. THE CMC
HAS BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WHILE THE 00Z OPERATIONAL EC DOES NOT
HAVE THIS LOW, QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD! IT SHOULD EB NOTED HOWEVER ON
THE EC ENSEMBLE MEAN THERE IS REGION OF LOWER THAN NORMAL PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE GULF NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL THE IDEA OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS GAINING SOME MERIT, HOWEVER
TIMING VARIATIONS DO EXIST. THOUGH SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN
DRY WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME CONTINUITY ALONG IMPROVED/TIGHTER TIMING
AMONG GUIDANCE BEFORE INCREASING POPS A LOT. EVEN WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW DID UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE, GOING A TOUCH CLOSER TO
MODELED TWO METER TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND WENT A TOUCH ABOVE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES/ STAT GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY WARM DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH CAN EB REFINED AS NEW DATA
COMES IN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32 IN THE POCONOS
NEGATING ANY FREEZING RAIN THREAT.
MONDAY: A MUCH STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE CLOSER
TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE GFS SWINGS IT THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE
ECMWF MOVING IT THROUGH BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. THINK STRONG
SOUTHERLY-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES BRINGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. WITH
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT GIVEN TIMING
DIFFERENCES. EVEN THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF DOES BRING SHOWERS MONDAY.
WENT WITH THE WARMER MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES ON THE GFS IN
THIS PERIOD FOR HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST WAS TO INCLUDE SOME
GUSTS IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED EARLY AND LATE, WITH A PERIOD OF REDUCED CIGS (AND
PSBLY VSBYS) IN THE MIDDLE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD. AS IT
DOES, A STRONG CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW CROSSING THE AREA ON
TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AND
GUSTY WIND AS HIGH AS 25 KT WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU A GOOD PORTION
OF TUE.
THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THE FRONT IS PRECIP AND WHAT IMPACT IT WILL
HAVE ON CIGS AND PSBLY VSBY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE ONSET
FOR MAINLY RAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD SOME SNOW WILL MIX
IN N AND W AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FCSTS AT KRDG AND KABE.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AS WELL. THE GROUND IS WARM, TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO COLDER SURFACES. AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU AND PRECIP INCREASES,
MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR,
ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS A BURST OF SNOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
THIS, SO IT IS NOT BEING FCST ATTM.
CONDS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NW TO SE BY LATER IN THE
MRNG/ERLY AFTN AT THE LATEST BUT THE GUSTY NW WIND WILL REMAIN.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25
KT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. MORE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CAUSE BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT. WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN SW GRADIENT AHEAD OF
FRONT AND ARE NOW SEEING 25+ KT GUSTS AT BUOY 44065. STRONG CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND CROSSES THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. THE
STRONG SWLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
AND PSBLY EVEN INCREASE. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM
PD. WIND GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 30 KT AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
AS HIGH AS 5 OR 6 FT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE SCA WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A,LOW CHANCE OF GALES ON THE SOUTHERN AREA WATERS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING PEAK WIND GUSTS
IN THE LOW 30S, JUST BELOW GALE CRITERIA. IT IS PROBABLE THAT MARINE
SCA HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AND
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SEAS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. LESSER CONFIDENCE AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
FOR NOVEMBER 12TH THE SNOWFALL RECORDS AT THE FOLLOWING CLIMATE
SITES ARE A TRACE AT ATLANTIC CITY SET BACK IN 1976, 0.4 IN
PHILADELPHIA SET BACK IN 1968 AND 6.4 INCHES IN ALLENTOWN IN 1968.
WILMINGTON HAS NEVER RECORDED SNOW ON THIS DATE.
ANY SNOWFALL IN WILMINGTON WOULD BE A "RECORD". A TRACE WOULD ALSO
TIE A RECORD IN ATLANTIC CITY WITH ANY MEASURABLE SNOW BREAKING A
RECORD.
FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE RECORD LEVELS. THURSDAY MORNINGS RECORD LOWS ARE
HISTORICALLY EVEN LOWER AND APPEAR OUT OF REACH.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...GAINES/GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
12/00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BEGINNING A RAPID AND SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. SHARP AND AMPLIFIED RIDGED FLOW OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST QUICKLY TURNS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE
DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A NEARLY ZONAL AND BENIGN
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...BUT
THAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE. GLOBAL GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE CAROLINA/GA COAST BY THIS TIME TUESDAY
EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...THIS EVOLVING TROUGH IS PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO/TN VALLEY ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST REAL
INTRUSION OF WINTER AIR INTO PORTIONS OF THE EAST...WITH 850MB TEMPS
DOWN TO -8 TO -10C AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAROLINAS. THIS TYPE OF
AIRMASS WILL CERTAINLY NOT REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THIS STRONG FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A BRIEF BUT NOTICEABLY SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
BACKING UP A BIT TO THE PRESENT...SENSIBLE WEATHER IS BENIGN AND DRY
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 1022MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS. FOR
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT DRY/RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WITH JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S...WITH
COOLER MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE DAY (FOR MUCH OF THE REGION) WILL
REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. COLUMN MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR THIS
FRONT TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SPRINKLES DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE FOCUS...HOWEVER...
ISOLATED AT BEST...AND FOR NOW WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST NORTH OF I-4. LATE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
EVENING...A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES AT A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-4 AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS A BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILE...BUT EVEN HERE...LOOKING AT 20-30% RAIN CHANCES
AND ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
12/00Z-13/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALTHOUGH LAL/PGD COULD SEE
PATCHY BR TOWARD SUNRISE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FL MAY RESULT IN VCNTY SHRA AT
PGD/FMY/RSW. LIGHT NE WINDS OVERNIGHT BACK TO NW IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST FLOW. LATE TUESDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
NIGHT...WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME HAZARDOUS AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SOLID ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING.
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
MARINERS WITH BOATING PLANS FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE OF RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 81 59 69 / 10 10 20 10
FMY 66 84 65 74 / 10 20 20 20
GIF 63 82 58 69 / 10 10 20 10
SRQ 66 81 61 71 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 59 80 54 65 / 10 10 20 10
SPG 68 80 62 67 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
938 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL RETURN IN
FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...THEN EXPECT A WARM UP AS WE ENTER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WEAKENING TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS EVENING/S SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS GETTING INTO THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LATEST RAP KEEPS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAK AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EAST PART. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...AND ALSO HAS IT MOVING THROUGH AS AN OPEN TROUGH
ALOFT INSTEAD OF TRYING TO CUT OFF A LOW. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN IS JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS NOW LOOKING AS IF IT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL LAG THE MAIN FRONT BY 12-24 HOURS
THOUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
BEFORE STEADYING OUT LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN RAPIDLY FALLING
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH HAS SPED UP
IN ALL THE MODELS ALSO...AND THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE
DIMINISHED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE FROM AROUND 12/22Z TO 13/04Z. DURING THIS
WINDOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. ALOFT...THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IF
ANY AT ALL...WHICH WOULD ALSO INDICATE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.
AFTER 13/06Z ...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPS RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 30S UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL MODERATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD. WINDS MAY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT THAT TIME DEPENDING
ON THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT. HAVE ADDED ANOTHER PERIOD
AROUND 20-21Z OF INCREASING WIND WITH GUSTS ALONG WITH BROKEN
CLOUDS..BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
958 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
955 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OR FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT FORECAST READINGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
LOWERED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGITS AT SOME FAVORED
OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR HAS FLOODED THE REGION WITH 20S AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -14C NOT FAR UPSTREAM FROM THE 00Z GRB RAOB. MODIFYING
THAT GRB SOUNDING FOR TEMP/DEW POINTS OBSERVED AT THE SOUTH
BUOY...WHICH SHOULD BOTH REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
TONIGHT...YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS
OF AROUND 6000 FT /EL AROUND 9000 FT/. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WITH SOME ECHOES TOWARD MID-LAKE. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER
ECHOES IN THERE ALONG WITH A STRAND OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
SATELLITE...WHICH SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
CURRENTLY THAT IS POINTING INTO BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN.
NO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THAT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS...WITH NUMEROUS SOURCES HAVING A NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WOBBLING THAT AREA
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. WITH NO
REAL CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...COULD ENVISION THIS STRUGGLES TO
MOVE BACK WEST MUCH. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHOWERS ALREADY EXIST AND
ON A CONVERGENT AXIS POINT TOWARD SOMEWHERE IS PROBABLE TO GET
HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY STILL JUST EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RAPID CUT-OFF TO THE WEST INTO OR JUST EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY. SO IT REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT THE TWO COUNTIES UNDER
THE ADVISORY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP SOME LATER TONIGHT AS SOME
COLD AIR STRATOCU IN EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...NOT SO MUCH A CONVERGENT AXIS OF THEM...BUT A FEW DRIFT
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INCLUDING CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT RE-INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL READINGS
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE TEENS
AND SET THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE THE WINDS EASE
WHICH WILL BE THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT THE PROBABILITY OF NEEDING TO LOWER...WHICH MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY INDICATING MAY BE A CHILLY ONE.
MTF
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL PASS THROUGH GYY IN THE NEXT HOUR AND
THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THESE WILL REMAIN EAST OF GYY...
BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 05Z-10Z WHEN THEY MOVE WEST...
POTENTIALLY REACHING GYY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT GYY BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION WITH
THIS FORECAST.
ONCE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR MDW/GYY EARLY THIS EVENING...MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREA OF 4-5KFT
STRATOCU OVER NORTHEAST WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. QUITE A BIT OF WIND
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING BUT AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE THAT GUSTS WILL
BECOME LESS PREVAILING. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
902 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL PASS THROUGH GYY IN THE NEXT HOUR AND
THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THESE WILL REMAIN EAST OF GYY...
BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 05Z-10Z WHEN THEY MOVE WEST...
POTENTIALLY REACHING GYY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT GYY BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION WITH
THIS FORECAST.
ONCE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR MDW/GYY EARLY THIS EVENING...MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREA OF 4-5KFT
STRATOCU OVER NORTHEAST WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. QUITE A BIT OF WIND
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING BUT AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE THAT GUSTS WILL
BECOME LESS PREVAILING. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN
UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
539 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WILL PASS THROUGH GYY IN THE NEXT HOUR AND
THEN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THESE WILL REMAIN EAST OF GYY...
BUT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD BETWEEN 05Z-10Z WHEN THEY MOVE WEST...
POTENTIALLY REACHING GYY. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW THAT THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT GYY BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION WITH
THIS FORECAST.
ONCE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR MDW/GYY EARLY THIS EVENING...MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREA OF 4-5KFT
STRATOCU OVER NORTHEAST WI AND THE UPPER PENINSULA WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. QUITE A BIT OF WIND
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION...EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING BUT AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...POSSIBLE THAT GUSTS WILL
BECOME LESS PREVAILING. WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
AND THEN MORE WESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...QUICKLY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS/DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011...9 PM MONDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN
UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OVER SW ONTARIO AND STRONG HIGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB
WAS MAINTAINING W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS COVERING
MUCH OF WI AND MN DRIFTING SE INTO FAR N CENTRAL AND NE IA...WHILE
SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER EASTERN IA...NW IL AND FAR NORTHEAST MO.
ALOFT...A BROAD NW FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST...SENDING AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS MIGRATES EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXING COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THE CURRENT
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA
ALLOWING A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLOUD OVER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAUSED BY WARM
ADVECTION AND MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN OVER NEB MIGRATES
EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THIS...PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE MID
40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH ARE CLOSE TO LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND
LOOK REASONABLE.
TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD
WHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE FRONT
ADVANCING TO NEARLY BISECT IA FROM SW TO NE BY 12Z. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MIXED PREFRONTAL SW FLOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WILL
OCCUR CLOSE TO THE 12Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AND DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
FRONTAL POSITION. FOR NOW...HAVE LOWS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...FROM
THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS MAINLY POST FRONTAL AND BASED ON CURRENT TIMING
HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MAIN SHOW CONTINUES TO BE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.
MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING AND POSITION...
GENERALLY FAVOR THE GFS DUE TO ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. REST OF
THE MODELS HAVE CLOSED IN ON THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN THE
FASTEST WITH THE FRONT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH RESPECT TO
MOISTURE...GFS IS NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND
WILL USE WITH CAUTION...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM.
PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY REMAINS IN QUESTION. FORCING IS STRONG BUT
MOISTURE LACKING...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS TIED TO FROPA AT THE
SURFACE AND THROUGH PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB FRONT. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE RAPIDLY WORKING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SO HAVE ENDED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT EARLIER WITH ALL BUT THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ENDING BY 00Z. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE...HAVE ALSO STAYED WITH THE COLDER GFS WHEN
DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. GFS SOUNDING SHOWS ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW
FREEZING BY 18Z TO WELL SOUTH OF I-80...AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP
TYPE TO CHANGE TO SNOW MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
REGARDLESS...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO EXTREMELY LIMITED
MOISTURE.
LATER IN THE WEEK...DIGGING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE IN QUESTION AND
MAIN FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HAVE KEPT LOW
POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND...AND WILL AGAIN CARRY LOW POPS
FOR SATURDAY AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY MOST MODELS. HRRR
KEEPS CLOUDS NORTH BUT LATEST RAP STARTING TO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
A PORTION OF SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME EROSION IN INCREASINGLY
SUBSIDENT REGIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO IOWA...I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT CIGS AND ONLY HINT WITH SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 3KFT AGL AT KDBQ...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH MID TO
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...DMD
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AT 3 PM A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PLACED EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS UNDER A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDS THIS EVENING AND
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. MODELS SOUNDINGS WERE
DEEPLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE DECOUPLING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SO
LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER 23 UTC. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN IOWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06 UTC AND
DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS BY 12 UTC.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S BY 12 UTC ON SUNDAY. IF THE HIGH BUILDS IN FASTER...TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A CANADIAN
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE THEME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF FAIRLY MILD
MONDAY MORNING BUT FALL DRAMATICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A
IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND PUSHES THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS UP TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS LIGHT SNOW
WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE
AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HENCE...I WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE SNOW IS VERY UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS HUGE IN AREAL EXTENT AND COVERS THE ENTIRE
CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE TO BE
AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE COLDEST 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS AVERAGE AROUND
MINUS 12 DEGREES CENTIGRADE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE TEENS. RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 11TH AND 12TH ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO
WE WILL NOT BE APPROACHING RECORD LOW TERRITORY.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND BUT I WILL LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST BEING THAT IT IS SEVEN DAYS OUT. ..KUHL..
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY MOST MODELS. HRRR
KEEPS CLOUDS NORTH BUT LATEST RAP STARTING TO SHOW POTENTIAL
FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
A PORTION OF SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME EROSION IN INCREASINGLY
SUBSIDENT REGIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO IOWA...I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT CIGS AND ONLY HINT WITH SCATTERED DECK
AROUND 3KFT AGL AT KDBQ...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH MID TO
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING
AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
911 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013
ADDED PATCHY FOG AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH
THIS UPDATE. NAM/RAP SHOWING GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CWA (SOUTH OF I-70
CORRIDOR). SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...SAND MID 30 TO
LOW 40F TD VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SW KS AND NORTHERN OK/TX.
WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON EASTERN SIDE OF LEE
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER TD VALUES
ADVECT NORTH INTO OUR CWA...MATCHING TIMING OF NAM/RAP RH
SATURATING. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER FOR NOW PATCHY COVERAGE SEEMED REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTHEAST WYOMING T0 EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST FETCH EXTENDS FURTHER
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWESTWARD
WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AM NOT
COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR
NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE
COLD FRONT BY MODELS SO HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF
BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT MOVING
INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z. THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS
SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL
HAVE THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THAT TIME WITH THE FRONT
CLEARING THE AREA COMPLETELY BY 21Z LATER THAT DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT AROUND NOON WITH A COOLING TREND FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST TO THE UPPER
50S OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. GLANCING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE.
HAVE ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES. BASED ON COOLER
AND DRIER GUIDANCE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. WITH
A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST COLORADO.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SOME STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BUT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD
REGARDLESS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK)...MODELS AGREE ON SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERNS BUT DISAGREE
ON THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. THEIR SOLUTIONS ALSO DISAGREE ON SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT SHOULD PASS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HAVE MENTIONED RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THE DAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO
PINPOINT THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SO HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HAVE
SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 451 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD
AND MCK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE RH VALUES MAY BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER ABOUT 10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF LESS
THAN VFR FROM FOG AT EITHER TERMINAL IS LOW. THE RAP MODEL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS
TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT GLD
BUT IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
553 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
L0W PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE 1800 EDT: A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS OF 6 PM. ANOTHER BAND OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM MILLINOCKET TO DANFORTH WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1>6.
THE HRRR SHOWS THE STEADY SNOW ENDING BY 03 UTC/10 PM FOR ALL
ZONES. WILL REEVALUATE THE ADVISORY END TIME FOR NORTHEAST ZONES
BY 9 PM.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW
CONTINUING TO AFFECT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST OVER EASTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON WHERE ANOTHER
1-3 INCHES WILLB BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. FURTHER SOUTH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE MINOR IF ANY. THESE FLURRIES WIND DOWN MONDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS SOUTH AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS MONDAY EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING IN
COLDER AIR LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WET ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AS TEMPS
FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. TUESDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY AND COLD AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AND WIND
CHILLS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN MANY SPOTS. SOME FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A BREEZE LIKELY CONTINUING. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DOWNEAST WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AND A CHILLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ONTO THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE LAKE WEEK PERIOD BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MAY CONTINUE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL THEN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AS SOME WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS AS
THE MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY IFR IN THE NORTH THROUGH AFTERNOON IN SNOW WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WINDS DOWN AND EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY.
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OUT HOWEVER STILL EXPECT STRATUS TO BRING MVFR/IFR INTO THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST LATE MONDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MVFR IN SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. WINDS
WILL THEN LIKELY DROP BELOW SCA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ003>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI/BLOOMER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY
BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
MULTIPLE BAND CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS NROTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS HAVING CLEAR CONNECTIONS WITH
LAKE SUPERIOR CONVECTION. 12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION NEAR
650MB/-18C. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AROUND A 1002MB LOW ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO PUSHING
SOUTHEAST (LARGE AREA 3-4MB/3H PRESSURE RISES OVER MICHIGAN/
WISCONSIN).
WHILE CONDITIONS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT WILL WANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM RIDGING APPROACHES AND MID LEVELS DRY
OUT/INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL...THIS IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME AND
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PLENTY OF INERTIA WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY.
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WON`T HURT THE CAUSE EITHER...SO WILL SLOW
DOWN THE "DIMINISHING" OF THIS EVENT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
TOWARD EVENING (MAY END PRECIP LATE WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR AS
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK WEST).
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. HAVE MADE SOME CONTORTIONS TO ONGOING
MARINE HEADLINES...COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/GALE
WARNINGS AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
FOR MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SWEPT THROUGH NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND HAD REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DRIER AIR (SEEN ALREADY SUPPRESSING LAKE EFFECT OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR) STARTS TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IDEA IN HAND. VERY MINIMAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE...AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL RAIN AND SOME
ADDITIONAL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY
WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT
WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A
BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND
MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY
MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/
QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL
ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30
KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR
WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME
ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID
COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK
MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER
THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT
PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE
EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE
PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL
DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF
FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER
COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY
LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT
IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE
MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH
INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON
TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS
HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL
DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE
MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN
UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND
SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN
SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES
LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD
THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS
CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE)
ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE
NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP.
MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL
BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A
QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE
MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR
VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD
FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF
MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE
AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE
ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN
OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN
CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE.
THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND
BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STARTING AS RAIN
THEN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME
HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SMD
MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY
BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
MULTIPLE BAND CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS NROTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS HAVING CLEAR CONNECTIONS WITH
LAKE SUPERIOR CONVECTION. 12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION NEAR
650MB/-18C. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AROUND A 1002MB LOW ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO
BORDER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO PUSHING
SOUTHEAST (LARGE AREA 3-4MB/3H PRESSURE RISES OVER MICHIGAN/
WISCONSIN).
WHILE CONDITIONS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT WILL WANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM RIDGING APPROACHES AND MID LEVELS DRY
OUT/INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL...THIS IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME AND
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PLENTY OF INERTIA WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY.
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WON`T HURT THE CAUSE EITHER...SO WILL SLOW
DOWN THE "DIMINISHING" OF THIS EVENT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
TOWARD EVENING (MAY END PRECIP LATE WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR AS
WINDS BEGIN TO BACK WEST).
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. HAVE MADE SOME CONTORTIONS TO ONGOING
MARINE HEADLINES...COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/GALE
WARNINGS AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES
FOR MONDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SWEPT THROUGH NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND HAD REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DRIER AIR (SEEN ALREADY SUPPRESSING LAKE EFFECT OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR) STARTS TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IDEA IN HAND. VERY MINIMAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE...AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL RAIN AND SOME
ADDITIONAL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY
WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT
WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A
BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND
MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY
MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/
QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL
ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30
KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR
WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME
ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID
COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK
MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER
THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT
PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE
EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE
PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL
DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF
FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER
COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY
LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT
IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE
MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH
INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON
TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS
HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL
DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE
MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN
UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND
SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN
SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES
LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD
THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS
CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE)
ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE
NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP.
MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL
BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A
QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE
MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR
VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD
FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF
MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE
AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE
ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN
OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN
CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE.
THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND
BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
DRIER AIR ALREADY SWEEPING INTO NRN MICHIGAN AFTER EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT FLARE UP. CIGS LOOKING TOUGH TO DISCERN BETWEEN MVFR AND
LOW END VFR. LOWERING INVERSION AND MOISTURE STUCK UNDERNEATH LOOK
LIKE MVFR WILL TRY AND HOLD ON. THIS SUPPORTED MORE SO BY UPSTREAM
OBS OF PREDOMINANTLY MVFR....BEST SHOT AT VFR IS AT MBL. COULD BE
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DRYING...BUT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING IN LATE AND THIS EVENING. QUITE AN
IMPRESSIVE SHOW OF WEATHER ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW UP TO 22-26KTS
TODAY...LIGHTENING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME
HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323-
342-344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...SMD
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
643 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY
BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SWEPT THROUGH NRN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND HAD REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
DRIER AIR (SEEN ALREADY SUPPRESSING LAKE EFFECT OVER CENTRAL LAKE
SUPERIOR) STARTS TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IDEA IN HAND. VERY MINIMAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE...AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL RAIN AND SOME
ADDITIONAL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY
WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT
WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A
BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND
MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY
MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/
QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL
ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30
KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR
WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME
ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID
COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK
MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER
THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT
PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE
EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE
PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL
DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF
FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER
COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY
LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT
IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE
MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH
INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON
TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS
HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL
DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE
MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN
UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND
SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN
SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES
LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD
THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS
CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE)
ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE
NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP.
MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL
BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A
QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE
MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR
VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD
FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF
MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE
AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE
ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN
OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN
CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE.
THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND
BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
DRIER AIR ALREADY SWEEPING INTO NRN MICHIGAN AFTER EARLIER LAKE
EFFECT FLARE UP. CIGS LOOKING TOUGH TO DISCERN BETWEEN MVFR AND
LOW END VFR. LOWERING INVERSION AND MOISTURE STUCK UNDERNEATH LOOK
LIKE MVFR WILL TRY AND HOLD ON. THIS SUPPORTED MORE SO BY UPSTREAM
OBS OF PREDOMINANTLY MVFR....BEST SHOT AT VFR IS AT MBL. COULD BE
SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DRYING...BUT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING IN LATE AND THIS EVENING. QUITE AN
IMPRESSIVE SHOW OF WEATHER ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW UP TO 22-26KTS
TODAY...LIGHTENING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME
HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SD
SYNOPSIS...SD
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD
MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
306 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY
BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY
WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT
WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A
BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT
WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND
MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS
WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY
MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/
QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR
ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL
ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30
KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR
WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME
ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID
COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK
MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS
EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER
THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT
PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE
EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST
SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE
PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD.
THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL
DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO
AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF
FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER
COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF
SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST
LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY
LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT
IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL
AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING
OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE
MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH
INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON
TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS
HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL
DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE
MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN
UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME
OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN
SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND
SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN
SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES
LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD
THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS
CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET
RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE)
ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE
NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP.
MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL
BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A
QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE
MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR
VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME
OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD
FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF
MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE
AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE
ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN
OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN
CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE.
THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND
BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF
RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LAKE EFFECT THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KPLN AND KTVC. MAINLY MVFR OVERCAST...BUT
COULD SEE A BRIEF DIVE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
STRONGER LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS. DRYING TAKES SLOW HOLD LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING CIGS TO RISE AND SHOWERS TO END. GUSTY WEST...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATER TODAY.
NEXT FRONT TO ARRIVE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD (EARLY MONDAY
MORNING). WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCTION OF NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP
(LIKELY MOSTLY SNOW) THIS EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD
SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME
HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SD
SHORT TERM...DL
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
302 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER
850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO
-7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY
AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A
FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE
5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING
FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS
OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER
HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS
FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A
0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND
COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL.
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS
IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA
COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION
WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES
FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S.
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW
MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD
FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE
DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
INTERESTING FORECAST PERIOD STARTING 12Z MON AS A SFC TROUGH/STRONG
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE SE OF THE CWA BY THIS TIME.
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE FACT THAT MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. MODELS ARE IN
GREAT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE NW-NNW WINDS AND FAIRLY STEADY -15C
OR SO 850MB TEMPS THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND INTO TUE OVER THE ERN CWA.
THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LES IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON
INTO MON NIGHT.
SOME DETAILS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AS NOTED WELL
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. EVEN WITH SUBSTANTIAL LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 3KM...THE INFLUENCE OF
THE IMPRESSIVE 1045MB SFC HIGH TO OUR W MAKES SOME DETAILS WITH THE
SNOWFALL FORECAST CHALLENGING. THE TRICKIEST AREA LOOKS TO BE OVER
THE WRN U.P. WHERE THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE NW-NNW FLOW...BUT DRY MID
LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT SNOWFALL
INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS...BUT TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. THIS WILL BE
LESS OF AN ISSUE OVER ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE GREATER FETCH AND EVEN
LES BANDING OFF LAKE NIPIGON WILL HELP THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC
SETUP FURTHER. SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL /AND THAT SHOULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES OVER AT LEAST THE ERN CWA/ ON MON INTO EARLY MON
NIGHT BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES IN.
MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINES OVER ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO HEADLINES OUT E
IS THAT IT WILL BE WINDY WHICH WILL LOWER THE SLR AND WIND
DIRECTIONS LOOK TO VARY SOME THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WHICH MAY
KEEP MORE DOMINANT BANDS MORE TRANSIENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS
LOOKS TO BE LINING UP TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE ERN CWA...THE WINDS WOULD REDUCE
VISIBILITIES...AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING PEAK TRAVEL HOURS SO IMPACTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN THIS
SCENARIO. DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. THINKING IS THAT
EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT MEET SPECIFIC WARNING
CRITERIA...SOCIETAL IMPACTS SHOULD JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE. A HEADLINE
MAY BE NEEDED OVER WRN UPPER MI AS WELL...BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME OVER THERE TO ISSUE ANYTHING.
AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...EXPECT LES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TUE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SENDING A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY LATE WED AS
THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH AND THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO
KY...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 7C BY 00Z THU WITH STRONG SW FLOW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER NORMAL /OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS SHOULD
STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO
GREAT CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE CWA ON FRI...BUT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THAT SYSTEM WELL.
USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FROM WED ON AND FOCUSED ATTENTION ON
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MON INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA/-SHSN TRANSITIONING -SHSN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES E. WITH WINDS
VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW...PCPN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX AND
SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AT KIWD/KSAW. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX/KIWD
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR ALSO
POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD KEEP CIGS
HIGHER IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR. AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WINDS BACK SW...
LINGERING -SHSN WILL END EARLY AND STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR
OUT...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NEAR THE END OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...FROPA WILL OCCUR AT KCMX/KIWD...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHSN/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER FROPA...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 30KT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING
THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH
THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-
245-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1159 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER
850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO
-7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY
AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A
FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE
5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING
FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS
OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER
HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS
FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A
0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND
COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL.
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS
IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA
COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION
WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES
FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S.
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW
MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD
FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE
DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A SHARP CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFERING EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIRMASS BY FAR OF THE
SEASON TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
DEVELOPING IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. IN ADDITION...WINDY N-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAY BE ABOUT 3 HR
FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY FAST
MOVING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UP TO 0.10 INCH OF PCPN WILL FALL
WITH THE FRONT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C...EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO
FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH WESTERN PARTS PERHAPS SEEING TWO INCHES
WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY WILL ALLOW
850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -16C. THIS WILL YIELD GREAT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE OF OVER 9C/KM AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 3 KM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LAKE EFFECT MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF MARQUETTE WHERE
THE FETCH WILL BE THE LONGEST OWING TO N-NW PBL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE
INTERESTING PROBLEM WITH THIS LES EVENT WILL BE THE EXTRAORDINARY
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1047MB (OR OVER +3 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE
MEAN) BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS LEAD TO QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IN
ESSENCE...THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE LIKE A PURE LES EVENT IN JANUARY
VS THE NORMAL LAKE ENHANCED EVENTS THAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN NOVEMBER.
WILL PROBABLY SEE VERY DISTINCT LES BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE BANDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS THAT THESE
BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WITH THE PBL WINDS SHIFTING FROM
AROUND 320 DEG TO 345 DEG ON MONDAY...THEN BACK TO 330 OR 320 DEG
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. IN ADDITION...IT
IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
WILL HAVE ON THE LES. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW SUGGEST THAT THIS
DRYING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OVER THE WEST...WHICH MAY BE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LESSENED EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PRIMARY BAND WITH A
LAKE NIPIGON INFLUENCE INTO ALGER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO ALL
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MONDAY WILL END
UP BEING A FAIRLY WINDY AND SNOWY DAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL NECESSARILY FALL DUE TO THE REASONS GIVEN ABOVE...BUT IT
SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MODERATE SNOWFALL IN ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THROWING IN THE
STRONG WINDS...WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
STORM OF 2013/2014 FOR THESE AREAS. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW
AMOUNTS. AS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WEST INTO KEWEENAW...STILL PLENTY
OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE ALSO CLOSER TO
THE HIGH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KEWEENAW
WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES DESPITE FAVORABLE N-NW
WINDS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT
SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ANYTHING HEAVY
DUE TO THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MORE DRY AIR.
LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA/-SHSN TRANSITIONING -SHSN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES E. WITH WINDS
VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW...PCPN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX AND
SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AT KIWD/KSAW. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX/KIWD
WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR ALSO
POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD KEEP CIGS
HIGHER IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR. AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WINDS BACK SW...
LINGERING -SHSN WILL END EARLY AND STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR
OUT...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NEAR THE END OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...FROPA WILL OCCUR AT KCMX/KIWD...ACCOMPANIED BY
SHSN/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER FROPA...
ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 30KT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING
THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH
THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ244-245-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
FCST IS EVOLVING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED IN THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP IN SPOTS...BUT OVERALL
TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY REMAINS. NO
CHANGE FROM BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
900 AM ESTF: SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FCST
UPDATE. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATUS MOVING UP FROM OK AND WRN KS. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HI-RES RAP HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF RECENT TRENDS AND SPREAD
THIS CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
SO TODAY IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS NICE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT N OF A LINE
FROM LEXINGTON-ST.PAUL-FULLERTON MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
USED A BLEND OF GFS/EC/GEM 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND THIS SLASHED
7-8F OFF THE 350 AM GID FCST.
OTHER MORE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THRU THE DAY
AS WE WATCH HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS TO END UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM INHERITED VALUES...WITH READINGS GENERALLY 5 OR
SO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ORD UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BY AROUND 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED
EARLY THEN HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS SO ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE BREEZY...DO NOT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST AS A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT WARM. ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.
THIS TIME THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES START A WARMING
TREND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
IN THE STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT
IT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN
THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR CIGS AROUND 4K FT WILL INVADE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HRS. SSE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY G18 KTS OR SO.
TONIGHT: VFR CIGS AROUND 4K FT WILL DEPART TO THE E LEAVING JUST A
COUPLE SHREDS OF CIRRUS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND
SHIFT TO SSW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS AROUND 09Z WITH A SECOND
WIND SHIFT TO WNW.
MON: MVFR OVC INVADES BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NNE
AND INCREASE TO 15 KTS AND GUST 20-25 KTS.
CIG CONFIDENCE: HIGH
VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WIND CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO MINOR ISSUES WITH TIMING OF WIND
SHIFTS
WX CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
906 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
900 AM ESTF: SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FCST
UPDATE. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATUS MOVING UP FROM OK AND WRN KS. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HI-RES RAP HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF RECENT TRENDS AND SPREAD
THIS CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
SO TODAY IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS NICE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT N OF A LINE
FROM LEXINGTON-ST.PAUL-FULLERTON MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
USED A BLEND OF GFS/EC/GEM 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND THIS SLASHED
7-8F OFF THE 350 AM GID FCST.
OTHER MORE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THRU THE DAY
AS WE WATCH HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE
MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURE READINGS TO END UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
VALUES...TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM INHERITED VALUES...WITH READINGS GENERALLY 5 OR
SO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS NEBRASKA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.
WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH ORD UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COULD SEE
WINDS PICK UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BY AROUND 12Z.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED
EARLY THEN HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN
THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS SO ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE BREEZY...DO NOT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST AS A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TRENDING COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SOME
CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT WARM. ON TUESDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD.
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
TO BE A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.
THIS TIME THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES START A WARMING
TREND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES
IN THE STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
ECMWF WITH THE WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT
IT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN
THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME IS THAT THERE WILL BE A
WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF
AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL BY LATE MORNING AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 22KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT VALID
PERIOD...BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT BY 11/08Z.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
637 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY THINNED AND SCATTERED EVEN SOUTH OF U.S. 64
AS OF THIS WRITING...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MOST CURRENT HRRR WRF
SHOWED. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED MOST OF THE REMAINING
CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AFTER A
FEW MID AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS DEPART AND THE WEAK LIFT MOVES OFF
WITH THEM...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE AS
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
DAY. 85MB THETA-E ACTUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY...AND K INDICES
GO STRONGLY NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL VEER AND THERE WILL BE A FEW WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO
20 MPH...MAYBE A COUPLE JUST HIGHER THAN 20 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64 WHERE THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
HIGHER VALUES JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND WITH A
DRY AIR MASS AND GOOD SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...67 TO 72.
TONIGHT...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR MASS
WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH HELPS TO
DIMINISH THE WIND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MINS DUE TO THE CONCERN
ABOUT THE COOLNESS OF THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WITH THIS HIGH...
ALTHOUGH JUST ENOUGH MIXING COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. STILL...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
ENOUGH LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS A 90KT JET
AT 300MB IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 12Z TUESDAY...
THOUGH APPROACHING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN 850MB LIFT INCREASES ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. K INDICES
REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AN 850MB THETA-E
ACTUALLY PERSISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT...
HIGH-LEVEL NAM AND GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL BOTH SUGGEST SOME MID- AND/OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 FOR THE
DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...THE NAM MOISTURE FORECAST IS MUCH DRIER
ALOFT COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE NAM HIGHER 300MB WINDS OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AREAS
OF AT LEAST HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS WIND SPEED FORECAST
AROUND 300MB VERIFIES THEN. WILL FORECAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THAT...PLUS THE TYPICAL COOL GUIDANCE BIAS THE
NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUGGEST
HIGHS MONDAY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...60 TO
65. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
SE THROUGH NC ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX
MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THEN EAST... FROM THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SLOWS AND CLOSES OFF AS A BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL NC BY
LATE WED. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS... AS THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE LAST
FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z AND INTO SE NC BY SUNSET... WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL TEMP
PATTERN WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN
CWA. GIVEN THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE POLAR FRONT WITH ITS
REARWARD SLOPING ASCENT... WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB
TROUGH). FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TUE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CAROLINAS/ERN TN/NRN GA WHERE THE
MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST AND
VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING SATURATION FROM AROUND 925 MB UP TO 650
MB... DEEPEST IN THE WRN CWA INCLUDING THE TRIAD (WHERE LIFT WILL BE
GREATEST)... AND ALL OF THIS SATURATION OCCURS BELOW 0C. THIS
SATURATION ALSO EXTENDS UP BEYOND -15C FOR SEVERAL HOURS... MEANING
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS THAT WHEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BEST ALIGNED
TEMPORALLY (MIDDAY TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING)... THE LOWEST 100 MB OR
SO IS FAIRLY DRY... INCREASING THE ODDS OF EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION
OF ANY FALLING HYDROMETEORS... PLUS THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. SO
WHILE WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN... IT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL... ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% IN THE WRN CWA DOWN TO 10-20% IN THE
CENTRAL/EAST) AND LOW AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING AVERAGE TIMING OF THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF... WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AROUND NOON... DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
FINALLY EXITING THE SW CWA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A
BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE STRONG SURGE OF WINDS BEGINNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE VERY EXPANSIVE AND DENSE ARCTIC
HIGH PUSHING IN WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN THE MSLP GRADIENT SUCH
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NEAR THE VA BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS... RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CWA
WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
A BIT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MSLP GRADIENT
SLACKENS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE
PLUMMETING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS
28-36.
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN A WORD: COLD. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST AND SE OF CENTRAL NC (AS THE
BAGGY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER COASTAL NC) WILL CAUSE A
CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SWRLY UPPER JET CORE JUST OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DPVA...
RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD FORM FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS COULD BRUSH THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THE MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT
WITH A STEADY NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HEART OF A VERY CHILLY HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... HIGHS COULD BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES F
BELOW NORMAL... AND MODELS AGREE ON MORNING 850 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO
-9C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280 M. HIGHS 41-46. AS THE
CORE OF THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT... WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AND TEMPS SHOULD CRASH... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 22-29.
BOTH OF THESE HIGHS AND LOWS WED/WED NIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOVE RECORD
COLD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AND WARMING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED OVER NC/VA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EASE OUT TO SEA...
SUPPLANTED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A LOT OF
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY... BUT AS THIS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD FRI INTO SAT... INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO NC... WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL 925-850 MB
FLOW FROM THE SE AND S SHOULD BRING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR
INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S
THU... RISING TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRI AND LOW-MID 60S SAT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S THU NIGHT RISING TO MID 30S-AROUND
40 FRI NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW MID AND
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEPART...LEAVING
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND
BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME
NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT...LIGHT NORTHEAST LATE.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND WINDS NEAR
2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...BUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THESE TOWARD
THE TRIAD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE 25 TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE ONE-HOUR
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 5 TO 6 PERCENT AND TEN-HOUR FUELS JUST
BELOW 10 PERCENT...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST...AND PLAN TO DISCUSS ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE DURING THE MORNING FOR ANY NEEDED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...DJF/WSS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
NORTHERN END OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING...AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS FROM
THE RAP AND GFS...ALONG WITH THE HRRR WRF CLOUD COVER FORECAST...ARE
ALL CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BY
12Z TO 14Z IN THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. THIS TIMING SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE NORTHERN END
OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE ACTUALLY
SHOWING A FEW MORE THIN SPOTS AND EROSION ON THE WEST END. AFTER THE
HIGH CLOUDS DEPART AND THE WEAK LIFT MOVES OFF WITH THEM...
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE AS A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. 850MB
THETA-E ACTUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS K INDICES GO
STRONGLY NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL
VEER AND THERE WILL BE A FEW WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
MPH...MAYBE A COUPLE JUST HIGHER THAN 20 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64 WHERE THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
HIGHER VALUES JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND WITH A
DRY AIR MASS AND GOOD SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...67 TO 72.
TONIGHT...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR MASS
WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE
EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH HELPS TO
DIMINISH THE WIND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MINS DUE TO THE CONCERN
ABOUT THE COOLNESS OF THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WITH THIS HIGH...
ALTHOUGH JUST ENOUGH MIXING COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. STILL...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
ENOUGH LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE 30S FOR LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY...
WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS A 90KT JET
AT 300MB IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 12Z TUESDAY...
THOUGH APPROACHING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
WHEN 850MB LIFT INCREASES ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. K INDICES
REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AN 850MB THETA-E
ACTUALLY PERSISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT...
HIGH-LEVEL NAM AND GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND THE CANADIAN
CLOUD COVER MODEL BOTH SUGGEST SOME MID- AND/OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 FOR THE
DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...THE NAM MOISTURE FORECAST IS MUCH DRIER
ALOFT COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE NAM HIGHER 300MB WINDS OUTSIDE
OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AREAS
OF AT LEAST HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS WIND SPEED FORECAST
AROUND 300MB VERIFIES THEN. WILL FORECAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THAT...PLUS THE TYPICAL COOL GUIDANCE BIAS THE
NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUGGEST
HIGHS MONDAY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...60 TO
65. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
SE THROUGH NC ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX
MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THEN EAST... FROM THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SLOWS AND CLOSES OFF AS A BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL NC BY
LATE WED. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS... AS THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE LAST
FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z AND INTO SE NC BY SUNSET... WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL TEMP
PATTERN WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN
CWA. GIVEN THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE POLAR FRONT WITH ITS
REARWARD SLOPING ASCENT... WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB
TROUGH). FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TUE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CAROLINAS/ERN TN/NRN GA WHERE THE
MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST AND
VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING SATURATION FROM AROUND 925 MB UP TO 650
MB... DEEPEST IN THE WRN CWA INCLUDING THE TRIAD (WHERE LIFT WILL BE
GREATEST)... AND ALL OF THIS SATURATION OCCURS BELOW 0C. THIS
SATURATION ALSO EXTENDS UP BEYOND -15C FOR SEVERAL HOURS... MEANING
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS THAT WHEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BEST ALIGNED
TEMPORALLY (MIDDAY TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING)... THE LOWEST 100 MB OR
SO IS FAIRLY DRY... INCREASING THE ODDS OF EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION
OF ANY FALLING HYDROMETEORS... PLUS THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. SO
WHILE WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN... IT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL... ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% IN THE WRN CWA DOWN TO 10-20% IN THE
CENTRAL/EAST) AND LOW AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING AVERAGE TIMING OF THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF... WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AROUND NOON... DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
FINALLY EXITING THE SW CWA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A
BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE STRONG SURGE OF WINDS BEGINNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE VERY EXPANSIVE AND DENSE ARCTIC
HIGH PUSHING IN WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN THE MSLP GRADIENT SUCH
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NEAR THE VA BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS... RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CWA
WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
A BIT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MSLP GRADIENT
SLACKENS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE
PLUMMETING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS
28-36.
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN A WORD: COLD. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST AND SE OF CENTRAL NC (AS THE
BAGGY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER COASTAL NC) WILL CAUSE A
CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SWRLY UPPER JET CORE JUST OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DPVA...
RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD FORM FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS COULD BRUSH THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THE MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT
WITH A STEADY NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HEART OF A VERY CHILLY HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... HIGHS COULD BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES F
BELOW NORMAL... AND MODELS AGREE ON MORNING 850 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO
-9C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280 M. HIGHS 41-46. AS THE
CORE OF THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT... WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AND TEMPS SHOULD CRASH... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 22-29.
BOTH OF THESE HIGHS AND LOWS WED/WED NIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOVE RECORD
COLD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AND WARMING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED OVER NC/VA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EASE OUT TO SEA...
SUPPLANTED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A LOT OF
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY... BUT AS THIS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD FRI INTO SAT... INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO NC... WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL 925-850 MB
FLOW FROM THE SE AND S SHOULD BRING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR
INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S
THU... RISING TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRI AND LOW-MID 60S SAT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S THU NIGHT RISING TO MID 30S-AROUND
40 FRI NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE QUICKLY DEPART
BY AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND
BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME
NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND
WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY...
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 64. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE 25 TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE ONE-HOUR
FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 5 TO 6 PERCENT AND TEN-HOUR FUELS JUST
BELOW 10 PERCENT...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST...AND PLAN TO DISCUSS ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE DURING THE MORNING FOR ANY NEEDED
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...DJF/WSS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
238 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT MORE...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR WRF HIGH-CLOUD FORECAST SEEMED TO
HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS...PUSHING THEM ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO
THE EAST BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SOME WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS...
THEN WHEN THEY DEPART LATE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RENEWED FALL
TO NEAR FORECAST MINS. PROBABLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS BEING HIGHER IS TOWARD KFAY...KMEB...AND KCTZ AND DID OPT TO
RAISE MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA IS A BIT LATER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS DYING DOWN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. -KC
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z MON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BY MON/MON NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY...ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A POLAR VORTEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY...
FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP
SE THROUGH NC ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME
THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX
MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THEN EAST... FROM THE MIDWEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH
SLOWS AND CLOSES OFF AS A BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL NC BY
LATE WED. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS... AS THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE LAST
FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z AND INTO SE NC BY SUNSET... WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL TEMP
PATTERN WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN
CWA. GIVEN THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE POLAR FRONT WITH ITS
REARWARD SLOPING ASCENT... WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB
TROUGH). FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TUE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CAROLINAS/ERN TN/NRN GA WHERE THE
MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST AND
VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING SATURATION FROM AROUND 925 MB UP TO 650
MB... DEEPEST IN THE WRN CWA INCLUDING THE TRIAD (WHERE LIFT WILL BE
GREATEST)... AND ALL OF THIS SATURATION OCCURS BELOW 0C. THIS
SATURATION ALSO EXTENDS UP BEYOND -15C FOR SEVERAL HOURS... MEANING
A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. HOWEVER... IT
APPEARS THAT WHEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BEST ALIGNED
TEMPORALLY (MIDDAY TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING)... THE LOWEST 100 MB OR
SO IS FAIRLY DRY... INCREASING THE ODDS OF EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION
OF ANY FALLING HYDROMETEORS... PLUS THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. SO
WHILE WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN... IT
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL... ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% IN THE WRN CWA DOWN TO 10-20% IN THE
CENTRAL/EAST) AND LOW AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING AVERAGE TIMING OF THE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF... WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH
AROUND NOON... DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...
FINALLY EXITING THE SW CWA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A
BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE STRONG SURGE OF WINDS BEGINNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE VERY EXPANSIVE AND DENSE ARCTIC
HIGH PUSHING IN WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN THE MSLP GRADIENT SUCH
THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NEAR THE VA BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WITH
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS... RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CWA
WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
A BIT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MSLP GRADIENT
SLACKENS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE
PLUMMETING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS
28-36.
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN A WORD: COLD. THE PROGRESSION OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST AND SE OF CENTRAL NC (AS THE
BAGGY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER COASTAL NC) WILL CAUSE A
CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SWRLY UPPER JET CORE JUST OFF
THE MIDATLANTIC AND NC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DPVA...
RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD FORM FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS COULD BRUSH THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THE MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT
WITH A STEADY NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HEART OF A VERY CHILLY HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... HIGHS COULD BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES F
BELOW NORMAL... AND MODELS AGREE ON MORNING 850 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO
-9C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280 M. HIGHS 41-46. AS THE
CORE OF THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT... WINDS
SHOULD DECOUPLE AND TEMPS SHOULD CRASH... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 22-29.
BOTH OF THESE HIGHS AND LOWS WED/WED NIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOVE RECORD
COLD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AND WARMING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED OVER NC/VA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EASE OUT TO SEA...
SUPPLANTED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS LONGWAVE
TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A LOT OF
SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY... BUT AS THIS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD FRI INTO SAT... INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO NC... WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL 925-850 MB
FLOW FROM THE SE AND S SHOULD BRING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR
INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S
THU... RISING TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRI AND LOW-MID 60S SAT.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S THU NIGHT RISING TO MID 30S-AROUND
40 FRI NIGHT. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE QUICKLY DEPART
BY AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND
BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME
NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND
WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...
RECENT ROUND OF DRY WEATHER (ONLY 0.01 AT KGSO THE PAST WEEK) WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN 1 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AROUND 5-6 PERCENT WITH 10 HOUR FUELS 7-8N PERCENT. MINIMUM
RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LOWER TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN
THE PIEDMONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE 1 HOUR FUELS ARE LOWEST.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET...A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO
HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE 12Z GSO
SOUNDING HAS BEEN ANALYZED AND THE NC FORESTRY SERVICE CONSULTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KC/VINCENT
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1246 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED THE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING TO
SUPPORT MORE...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR WRF HIGH-CLOUD FORECAST SEEMED TO
HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS...PUSHING THEM ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO
THE EAST BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SOME WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS...
THEN WHEN THEY DEPART LATE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RENEWED FALL
TO NEAR FORECAST MINS. PROBABLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS BEING HIGHER IS TOWARD KFAY...KMEB...AND KCTZ AND DID OPT TO
RAISE MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY...
A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...VEERING
AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA IS A BIT LATER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS DYING DOWN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
MONDAY...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. -KC
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING FROM NEW
ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER THE
CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z MON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BY MON/MON NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY...ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A POLAR VORTEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS RAPIDLY INCREASING W/REGARD TO THE FORECAST TUE-THU.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUE WILL CLOSE
OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WED BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY OFFSHORE THU/FRI AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. STRONG (1045 MB) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY TUE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS A LARGELY DRY
COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONG DPVA ASSOC/W SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIP LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TUE-THU FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP FRI/SAT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE TUE/TUE NIGHT (BEST CHANCE
IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT) AND DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. -VINCENT
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE QUICKLY DEPART
BY AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND
BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME
NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND
WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE
THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY...
RECENT ROUND OF DRY WEATHER (ONLY 0.01 AT KGSO THE PAST WEEK) WITH
SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN 1 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS AROUND 5-6 PERCENT WITH 10 HOUR FUELS 7-8N PERCENT. MINIMUM
RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LOWER TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN
THE PIEDMONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE 1 HOUR FUELS ARE LOWEST.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET...A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO
HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE 12Z GSO
SOUNDING HAS BEEN ANALYZED AND THE NC FORESTRY SERVICE CONSULTED.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...KC/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...DJF
FIRE WEATHER...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MOST
AREAS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS IN THE FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL...CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE HIGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN A LITTLE FASTER. LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN NEAR ZERO. OTHERWISE CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE WARRANTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
NO UPDATES TO THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST. MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT A COLD 1043 MB HIGH DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO ADJUST SOME LOW LYING AND PROTECTED
AREAS DOWN...WHILE ELEVATED AREAS MAY NOT DROP AS MUCH AS FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
TRANQUIL WEATHER COVERS THE SHORT TERM WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. VERY DRY
AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL OFFSET ANY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM
FORMING DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/RISING MOTION FIELDS.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SPOTTY AREAS RECEIVED UP TO
TWO INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...PER SOUNDING DATA...THERE COULD
BE A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER/500FT THICK...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES TONIGHT. HAVE SOME MENTION OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SPREAD LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A CLEAR SKY. A 1043MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
BOTTINEAU WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TO JAMESTOWN MONDAY EVENING...THEN
SOUTH TO NEAR GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. IN DOING
SO...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 10
BELOW TO 15 BELOW ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AND WILL CONTINUE IT IN THIS FORECAST.
ON TUESDAY...SUNNY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S CENTRAL
AND LOWER 40S WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WAA OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. EXPECT TO SEE STEADY TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES
WEST (30S)...WITH STEADY TO SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES EAST
(20S). WITH WARM AND MORE MOIST AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
AND FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAA IS REPLACED
WITH CAA ON WEDNESDAY AS AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
MONTANA ADVECTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE
CAA...STILL EXPECT MILD DAYTIME HIGHS WED...WELL INTO THE 40S WITH
LOW 50S FORECAST SOUTHWEST.
MID LEVEL WAVE PUSHES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE PERCENT AND COVERAGE OF CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. BUFFER
SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL EITHER SEE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CAA ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WE DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG EMBEDDED
ENERGY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST WILL
AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY ADVERTISED TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. ONE POSSIBLE PROBLEM MAY BE LOW STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING
OVER THE WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION IS GREATEST AND OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED SNOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ONLY
AFFECT KDIK AND KISN. 12 NOV 01 UTC HRRR INDICATES LOWER
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TRYING TO WORK INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG/STRATUS AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WRN EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP A BIT MORE NOW SO EDGED CLEARING A
BIT FASTER EASTWARD INTO RRV OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL THINK AREAS
FROM ROX-BJI WILL STAY IN THE CLOUDS TIL PAST 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ALL DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...TEENS IN CLEAR AREAS AND MID-UPR
20S IN CLOUD AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UDPATED TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORY. STILL HAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW MN
(BDE-BJI AREAS) BUT OTHERWISE AREA IS CLOUDY. REALLY UNSURE HOW
FAST CLEARING WILL MAKE IT EASTWARD FROM CNTRL ND AND AGREE WITH
WFO BIS AND SLOW CLEARING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW END POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUD/
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 00 UTC WITH A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY
STILL NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTING THE CLEARING LINE WILL
REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY. THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
HERE TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S. ASSSUMING SOME DEGREE OF
CLEARING TAKES PLACE ELSEWHERE...ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS. WEAK SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH
IN THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH IF THE SUN MAKES A PROLONGED
APPEARANCE.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES. NORTH WIND
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...BUT
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A 1044 TO 1048 HPA SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CENTER OF
HIGH REMAINS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LIMITING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. ASSUMING
CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT WITH
925 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FROM -8 TO -12 C...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUB-
ZERO READINGS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES POINT TOWARD A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
INITIALLY TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CLOUD CLEARING CONCERNS
WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT OF GFK/FAR 06Z-09Z PERIOD AS
CLOUDS BREAK UP....CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD ON LONGER TIL PAST 12Z AT
BJI BUT CLEARING THERE UNCERTAIN. TVF AS WELL NEAR SOME CLEARING
HOLES AND MAY GO BTWN SCT-BKN OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY BKN MVFR. DVL
CLEAR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL TURM MORE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
IN MANY AREAS BY 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN EARLY SUN MORNING
WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH DVL REGION 17-18Z...GFK 19-20Z
....FAR-TVF 21Z...BJI 22Z OR SO. EXPECTING BKN LOW END VFR CLOUDS
WITH FRONT ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND SOME
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWER. CLEARING BEHIND FRONT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030AM UPDATE. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WITH PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT...BUT WITH MOISTURE SO
SHALLOW...NO POPS. WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND
LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM
OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT
BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM
TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY
FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS
KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM
RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH
EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL
SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF
SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE
CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL
DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN
OCCUR.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER 20S LOWLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD
NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW
RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO BE HAD.
LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE
SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
16Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR
SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS ARE CODED 30 TO
35 KTS...POSSIBLY A GUST TO 45 KTS OVER THE HIGHEST OF RIDGES. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WITH SCT CU OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SOME MVFR
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY...WITH VFR
CEILINGS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. 10-HR
FUELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6-8 PERCENT RANGE WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S...SO FIRE DANGER FCST IS
MOSTLY MODERATE. NO RED FLAG WARNING IS EXPECTED...BUT ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER IS PRESENT. HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PER FORESTRY
REQUEST FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV
FIRE WEATHER...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030AM UPDATE. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS WITH PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT...BUT WITH MOISTURE SO
SHALLOW...NO POPS. WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND
LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM
OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT
BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM
TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY
FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS
KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM
RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH
EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL
SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF
SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE
CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL
DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN
OCCUR.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER 20S LOWLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD
NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW
RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO BE HAD.
LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE
SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
16Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR
SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS ARE CODED 30 TO
35 KTS...POSSIBLY A GUST TO 45 KTS OVER THE HIGHEST OF RIDGES. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WITH SCT CU OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SOME MVFR
OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ARA FROM THE W.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE. MVFR CIGS
MAY VARY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. 10-HR
FUELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6-8 PERCENT RANGE WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S...SO FIRE DANGER FCST IS
MOSTLY MODERATE. NO RED FLAG WARNING IS EXPECTED...BUT ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER IS PRESENT. HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PER FORESTRY
REQUEST FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
FIRE WEATHER...TRM/JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
543 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND
LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM
OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT
BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM
TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY
FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS
KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM
RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH
EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL
SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF
SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE
CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL
DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN
OCCUR.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER 20S LOWLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD
NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW
RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO BE HAD.
LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE
SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AS
IT CROSSES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CU/STRATOCU ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH BASES ABOVE 3KFT. THIS
WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD ARE THE WINDS...WHICH CONTINUE GUSTY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. OUT OF THE W TO SW EARLY THIS
MORNING...THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO W TO NW ONCE THE FRONT
CROSSES THIS MORNING AND THEN STRENGTHEN FOR THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT
STILL STRONGEST ACROSS THE N...WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR
SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS
CODED OVER 30 KTS EKN...AROUND 40 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST
RIDGES.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN GO CALM
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
W. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATE TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO
NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE. MVFR CIGS
MAY VARY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WERE FINALLY RECOVERING OUT OF THE 20S IN NRN WV EARLY
THIS MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL GET
STRONGER TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING FIRST
THING THIS MORNING. 10-HR FUELS ARE GENERALLY 7-8 PERCENT AND DO
NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD BE HIGHER TODAY. RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
30S AND FIRE DANGER FCST IS MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF HIGH THOUGH
WORRIED THE HIGH AREAS MAY VERIFY LARGER AND THERE ARE A PLETHORA OF
DRY LEAVES ABOUT.
AT THIS TIME IT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE AN SPS WILL NOT NEED ISSUED SINCE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WORSE THAN RECENT DAYS OTHER THAN FUELS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
FIRE WEATHER...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND
LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT
IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM
OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT.
THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT
BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM
TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET
RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.
HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY
FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS
KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON
MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING
A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM
RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH
EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT
AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL
SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF
SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE
CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL
DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN
OCCUR.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH
DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND
LOWER 20S LOWLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD
NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY
CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW
RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION
TO BE HAD.
LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE
SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE
AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CU/STRATOCU ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 3KFT. THIS WILL SCATTER OUT
SUNDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE.
THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD ARE THE WINDS...WHICH CONTINUE GUSTY
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. OUT OF THE W TO SW OVERNIGHT...THESE
GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO W TO NW AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEN STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT STILL STRONGEST ACROSS THE
N...WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS CODED AROUND 35 KTS EKN...45
KTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ARA FROM THE W. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATE TO
STRONG W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE
NW SUNDAY NT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE. MVFR
CIGS MAY VARY IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 11/10/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H M L M M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WERE FINALLY RECOVERING OUT OF THE 20S IN NRN WV EARLY
THIS MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL GET
STRONGER TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING FIRST
THING THIS MORNING. 10-HR FUELS ARE GENERALLY 7-8 PERCENT AND DO
NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD BE HIGHER TODAY. RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE
30S AND FIRE DANGER FCST IS MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF HIGH THOUGH
WORRIED THE HIGH AREAS MAY VERIFY LARGER AND THERE ARE A PLETHORA OF
DRY LEAVES ABOUT.
AT THIS TIME IT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE AN SPS WILL NOT NEED ISSUED SINCE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WORSE THAN RECENT DAYS OTHER THAN FUELS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM
FIRE WEATHER...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1141 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST OUT WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF THE AREA.
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT AND
HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WILL TAKE A
MENTION AS FAR WEST AS KCLE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KYNG. FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS
HAVEN`T DONE MUCH SINCE SUNSET AND HAVE RAISED LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY DAYBREAK
CAN`T SEE A 20 DEGREE DROP.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. NEXT
MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON 850MB TEMPS EXPECT RAIN WILL BE THE
MAIN PTYPE FOR MONDAY HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C. DRY AIR FILLS IN RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C BY 12Z TUESDAY.
850MB/LAKE INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME WITH FLOW FROM THE NORTH
OFF LAKE HURON. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL
RUNS BUT WOULD EXPECT A LAKE HURON BAND SETTING UP SOMEWHERE WITH
MULTIBAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE WITH A SHORT FETCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY THOUGH AND THEN THERE IS
THE DRY AIR. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT THEN GET
GOING AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE LAKES MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE
LIKELY POPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING TO CHANCE MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN BOOST BACK TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TAPER TO CHANCE AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF
THE AREA FOR WED SO TEMPS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHSN
ARE IN QUESTION. WILL TEND TO STAY CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW
WITH SMALL CHANCE SHSN ON WED THEN DRY WED NIGHT.
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE MOST OF THE TIME THRU SAT ALTHOUGH A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRI TO SLOW THE
WARMING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY THEN STALLS OVER
VIRGINIA FRI AND SAT. DRY AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THU THEN THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT BRINGS A BAND OF MOISTURE ON FRI SO WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND ALSO ON SAT AS THE MOISTURE HANGS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ELSEWHERE THE CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER
DAYBREAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH ALOFT AFT 09Z/3AM EST. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT
SHOULD JUST BE RAIN BUT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE LOW WATER ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE WATER LEVEL TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL
MARK. HOWEVER...THE WATER LEVEL COULD APPROACH THE CRITICAL
MARK...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE IT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TURN A SW
FLOW TO WNW. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY KICK UP TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUSTAINED AT 30 KNOTS AND STAY WITH A SCA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT TO LESSEN
THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR THE SCA TO END WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATER MON TO VEER
THE FLOW TO NW AND INCREASE THE FLOW TO 30 KNOTS AGAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY WED TO LESSEN THE FLOW AGAIN WHILE
WINDS BACK TO THE SW. THE SCA MAY STILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON
THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE AS THE FLOW MAY NOT DROP OFF ENOUGH.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ144>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
654 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON MONDAY BEFORE A POLAR FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT PUTS THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SEMI-INTENSE
SHOWER/SQUALL IN THE NRN TIER COS AT 12Z. RH PROGS FROM RUC AND
NAM DO INCREASE LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 8KFT...AND LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO BE CONDUCIVE TO MAKING SHOWERS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER THE
NRN MTS AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES. 8H TEMPS DROP 4C IN THE NEXT 12
HRS. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT...THE CLOUD COVER IN THE NW
WILL HELP TO STIFLE HEATING TODAY. THE DOWNSLOPE AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVERAGE IN THE SE WILL HELP TEMPS RISE THERE. WILL KEEP BEST POPS
IN THE N WHERE MDLS PLACE THE MEAGER QPF. THE PRECIP SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN WHEN THE TEMPS
THEN DROP ENOUGH IN THE NRN NTS AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS LOWER
TO TURN PRECIP TO THE COLD SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE ANTICYCLONIC BUMP OVERNIGHT SHOULD DRY THINGS UP AND
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE. BUT THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE
APPROACHING COLD AIR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
UNDER A 1047MB HIGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE WE ENJOY
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE DAY. CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY THOUGH...AND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
INTO WARREN COUNTY JUST AFTER NOON. TIMING IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALL
PREV THINKING. FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LITTLE PRECIP MAKES IT DOWN THE HILLS INTO THE SERN
COS. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. GOOD
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTIONS COULD DEVELOP ON NWRLY WINDS.
TEMPS GO PRETTY COLD...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE SOME INTENSE SQUALLS.
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR
POST-FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKES TUESDAY MORNING. A
+3 STANDARD DEVIATION HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THE GIANT HIGH SHOULD KEEP US DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY LATE WEEK...AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE OFF THE
LAKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
COLD DRY AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME NW FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER...THOUGH WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WARM UP THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL
PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP
NOTED UPSTREAM ALONG FRONT AND ONLY SCT -SHRA EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY FROPA ACROSS NW PA AS IT DOES SO. THREAT OF LLWS REMAINS
MAINLY OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES WHERE THE RESULT OF
STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC. SFC
WINDS ELSEWHERE HAVE BECOME MDT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
ALL AIRFIELDS ARE VFR AT THIS POINT WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR OVER THE W MTNS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AM AT KBFD AND KJST.
FROPA EXPECTED AT KBFD SOON AND AT KLNS ARND 14Z-15Z. A TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WNW WIND ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA FROM
LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN. MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD GATHER
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STRATOCU/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD WITH CIGS
ARND 3 KFT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS NW MTNS.
TUE...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS KJST.
WED AND THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
455 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON MONDAY BEFORE A POLAR FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY PRESS INTO PA FROM THE N. THE
COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT AS SFC PRESSURE FIELD AND
WIND SHOW LITTLE DISCONTINUITY. RH PROGS FROM RUC AND NAM DO
INCREASE LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 8KFT...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEP ENOUGH TO BE CONDUCIVE TO MAKING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NRN MTS AS
THE COLD AIR ADVANCES. 8H TEMPS DROP 4C IN THE NEXT 12 HRS. WHILE
NOT TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT...THE CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL HELP TO
STIFLE HEATING TODAY. THE DOWNSLOPE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE IN
THE SE WILL HELP TEMPS RISE THERE. WILL KEEP BEST POPS IN THE N
WHERE MDLS PLACE THE MEAGER QPF. THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN WHEN THE TEMPS THEN DROP ENOUGH
IN THE NRN NTS AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS LOWER TO TURN PRECIP
TO THE COLD SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE ANTICYCLONIC BUMP OVERNIGHT SHOULD DRY THINGS UP AND
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE. BUT THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE
APPROACHING COLD AIR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
UNDER A 1047MB HIGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE WE ENJOY
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE DAY. CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY THOUGH...AND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE
INTO WARREN COUNTY JUST AFTER NOON. TIMING IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALL
PREV THINKING. FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT LITTLE PRECIP MAKES IT DOWN THE HILLS INTO THE SERN
COS. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. GOOD
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTIONS COULD DEVELOP ON NWRLY WINDS.
TEMPS GO PRETTY COLD...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE SOME INTENSE SQUALLS.
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR
POST-FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKES TUESDAY MORNING. A
+3 STANDARD DEVIATION HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THE GIANT HIGH SHOULD KEEP US DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY LATE WEEK...AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE OFF THE
LAKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
COLD DRY AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME NW FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER...THOUGH WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE NEXT
WEEK...THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WARM UP THE END OF NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. VERY
LITTLE PRECIP NOTED UPSTREAM ALONG FRONT AND ONLY SCT -SHRA
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY FROPA ACROSS NW PA. BIGGEST CONCERN MAY BE
THE THREAT OF LLWS...THE RESULT OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR OVR THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF HIGHER
MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MDL SOUNDINGS
EVEN SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
AM AT KBFD AND KJST.
18Z MDL DATA INDICATES FROPA WILL OCCUR ARND 09Z AT KBFD AND ARND
14Z AT KLNS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
GUSTY WNW WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL PA FROM LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN. MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDS
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD
GATHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STRATOCU/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD
WITH CIGS ARND 3 KFT.
OUTLOOK...
MON...EVENING SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS NW MTNS.
TUE...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS KJST.
WED AND THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
904 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013
.UPDATE...
Moving things up by about 2-3 hours...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Going to shoot out a quick update here in a bit to accelerate the front
by a few hours. Latest obs of temperature advection, 2D frontogenesis,
and grad mag thetae pairs up nicely with latest RUC13 progs. Looks
to me that the cold air is lagging the wind shift by about an hour
and that this lag may collapse as grad mag thetae catches up with
the boundary after 06Z or so. Wouldn`t be surprised if areas along
the front will see v dot del dirt (thanks, LUB!) lowering visibilities
briefly to below 3SM.
Have to look at lowering precip chances as we`re not overly optimistic.
Latest BUFR soundings keep the significant moist layer above the
inversion above 0C, and we`re not seeing much in the way of column
moistening or the potential for cold rain processes. However an
area of fog and maybe drizzle lagging FROPA by an hour or so looks
to be a safe bet. Probably key off RUC13 and what we can synthesize
from the latest HRRR output on winds, temps, and dewpoints. Don`t
expect much adjustments beyond maybe 18Z tomorrow, and that would
be for continuity more than anything else.
Wind chill will be the significant impact felt around here during the
morning hours...while temperatures will be significantly colder,
freezing temps aren`t expected until late Tuesday night. Northeasterly
winds 20-30 mph will make it feel like it`s in the 20s, however.
Dress warm and make sure pets and plants are tended to.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
AVIATION...
A strong cold front currently across the northern Texas panhandle
will move south tonight and be in Mexico by sunrise Tuesday.
Ahead of the front low level moisture will return to the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos this evening. Have included IFR ceilings at
KINK, KMAF, KPEQ and KFST by or shortly after 12/06Z. By late tonight
behind the front, MVFR ceilings are expected at all the terminals.
Was not confident enough to include any post frontal fog given
breezy conditions expected.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures are present this afternoon with some remnant low
clouds across the southeast Permian Basin and the Lower Trans
Pecos. A large upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region
with an associated arctic cold front currently racing southward
across the plains toward northern Oklahoma. Temperatures behind
this front in Kansas are mostly in the 30s. This modified arctic
cold front should reach the northern Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico shortly after midnight CST. Strong gusty winds are expected
with this front. The winds across the Guadalupe Mountains may
approach high wind criteria Tuesday morning. Did not issue a High
Wind Warning yet since conditions are marginal but do expect winds
to be gusty through the pass. Light rain and areas of fog are also
expected with the front. The rain is expected to spread across the
CWA as the front moves south. The fog will develop south and west
of the Pecos River during the later morning hours. Temperatures
will be significantly colder tomorrow with highs in the 30s to 40s
across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA. The warmest temperatures of
the day will be during the early morning hours for most of the area.
The rain will end across the Permian Basin after sunset Tuesday
evening and will mostly be concentrated south and west of the Pecos
River. This will allow for skies to clear across most of the
Permian Basin Wednesday morning. These clearing skies along with
near calm winds and a surface high across the region will allow for
temperatures to plummet. A hard freeze is possible for most of the Permian
Basin Wednesday morning so a Freeze Watch has been issued.
Temperatures will warm up on Wednesday afternoon but are still
expected to remain well below normal values. Another upper trough
will swing southward toward the Southern Plains on Thursday. This
will send a cold front into the northern CWA Thursday night, but
this front should not have much of an impact on temperatures. Rain
will be possible Friday as another upper trough approaches from the
west. The rain is then expected to spread eastward on Saturday. The
GFS and ECMWF are different in regards to the approaching upper
trough next weekend into early next week. Thus, the timing of the
cold front associated with this trough is in question. The GFS
pushes the cold front through on Sunday and attempts to form a low
south into Mexico. The ECMWF brings in the front on Monday and
hints at a low developing over southern Arizona. Due to this
discrepancy, did not have much confidence in the extended forecast
in regards to temperatures.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 36 38 25 55 / 10 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 35 38 26 54 / 20 20 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 39 45 34 58 / 0 30 10 0
DRYDEN TX 54 57 39 56 / 0 30 20 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 44 48 34 57 / 0 30 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 42 47 31 55 / 0 30 20 0
HOBBS NM 35 38 32 55 / 10 20 10 0
MARFA TX 40 50 31 54 / 0 30 20 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 37 39 26 55 / 10 20 10 0
ODESSA TX 37 39 26 54 / 10 20 10 0
WINK TX 43 46 31 59 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry.
&&
$$
12/70
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
140 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO FURTHER REFINE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE...SURFACE
OBS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION NWP TRENDS. SPECIFICALLY...HAVE SLOWED THE
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS
ANOTHER NOTCH. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
AVIATION...
LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO KLBB BY 19Z. CURRENT CLEARING LINE IS TIMED INTO KCDS AT
20Z...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY KEEP KCDS IN/NEAR MVFR
CIGS PERIODICALLY THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE TERMINALS MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES DROP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE IFR CONDITIONS
REFLECTED AT KCDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB FOR EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD THOUGH WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
UPDATE...
LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND WAS
LYING EAST AND NORTH OF A DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO MEADOW TO
TAHOKA TO JUSTICEBURG TO SWENSON LINE AS OF 16Z. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FOG WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT
THE WESTERN EDGE WAS STILL ADVANCING WEST. WE CONSIDERED EXTENDING
THE FOG ADVISORY PAST 16Z...BUT RECENT TRENDS AT KLBB AND KPVW
SHOW FOG SLOWLY THINNING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 SM. THIS TREND IS
CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL WEB CAMS AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH BOTH
KAMA AND KCDS WERE STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN THE OVERALL
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...BUT
GIVEN THE FACT THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD THROUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND THE HWO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DO SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE AND
DENSITY SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY OR SO...THOUGH REMAINING SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER. IT APPEARS THE
STRATUS DECK MAY HANG ON MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES AND FOR THIS REASON DID BUMP
DOWN FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN
REALITY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IF CLOUDS PERSIST ALL
DAY...THOUGH THEY COULD YET SEE A LITTLE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS DID INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DELAYING THE RETURN OF
SUN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
FOG BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE AND PERSISTENT IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.
SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH
THE ONSET OF THERMALLY INDUCED MIXING...BUT WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE CEILINGS SLOW TO LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE
CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING
IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES...VEER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWLY ERODING
STRATUS UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION. FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 70
WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN
THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AND TRY TO
ADVECT NORTH FROM THE BIG COUNTRY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE SONORAN DESERT
UP THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A 508 DAM LOW
WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILST DRAGGING A POTENT TROUGH AXIS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. OUT WEST...UPPER LOW WILL COME ASHORE
UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR DUE IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NWP HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE NAM/ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP
CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY PROBABLY WONT GET
OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE 30S NORTHWEST
AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ANY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 20S CENTRAL/EAST AND
PROBABLY TEENS NORTHWEST...WELL...AT LEAST MULESHOE.
ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT
MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING THOUGH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS /STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE/ EXISTS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST BUT THE NWP SOLUTIONS ARE NOT YET CONVINCING.
AND IN THE LATTER EXTENDED...THE MJO ENTERED A WEAK PHASE 2 BACK ON
THE 5TH OR 6TH. THIS MAY SUGGEST A COLD SNAP AROUND TUE/WED OF
THANKSGIVING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 41 72 32 40 25 / 0 0 20 10 0
TULIA 43 70 30 41 23 / 0 0 20 10 0
PLAINVIEW 44 71 32 42 24 / 0 0 20 10 0
LEVELLAND 46 72 37 43 27 / 0 0 20 20 10
LUBBOCK 47 71 37 42 25 / 0 0 20 20 10
DENVER CITY 46 69 38 46 29 / 0 0 20 20 10
BROWNFIELD 46 71 35 43 27 / 0 0 20 20 10
CHILDRESS 47 74 36 46 24 / 0 0 20 10 0
SPUR 49 73 37 43 25 / 0 10 20 20 0
ASPERMONT 50 74 42 42 25 / 0 10 20 20 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.AVIATION...
LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN VLIFR
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRATUS
DECK IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO KLBB BY 19Z. CURRENT CLEARING LINE IS TIMED INTO KCDS AT
20Z...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY KEEP KCDS IN/NEAR MVFR
CIGS PERIODICALLY THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE TERMINALS MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES DROP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE IFR CONDITIONS
REFLECTED AT KCDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB FOR EARLY MONDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD THOUGH WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
UPDATE...
LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND WAS
LYING EAST AND NORTH OF A DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO MEADOW TO
TAHOKA TO JUSTICEBURG TO SWENSON LINE AS OF 16Z. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FOG WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT
THE WESTERN EDGE WAS STILL ADVANCING WEST. WE CONSIDERED EXTENDING
THE FOG ADVISORY PAST 16Z...BUT RECENT TRENDS AT KLBB AND KPVW
SHOW FOG SLOWLY THINNING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 SM. THIS TREND IS
CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL WEB CAMS AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH BOTH
KAMA AND KCDS WERE STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN THE OVERALL
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...BUT
GIVEN THE FACT THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD THROUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND THE HWO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DO SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE AND
DENSITY SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY OR SO...THOUGH REMAINING SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER. IT APPEARS THE
STRATUS DECK MAY HANG ON MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES AND FOR THIS REASON DID BUMP
DOWN FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN
REALITY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IF CLOUDS PERSIST ALL
DAY...THOUGH THEY COULD YET SEE A LITTLE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS DID INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DELAYING THE RETURN OF
SUN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
FOG BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE AND PERSISTENT IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.
SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH
THE ONSET OF THERMALLY INDUCED MIXING...BUT WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE CEILINGS SLOW TO LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE
CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING
IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES...VEER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWLY ERODING
STRATUS UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION. FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 70
WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN
THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AND TRY TO
ADVECT NORTH FROM THE BIG COUNTRY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE SONORAN DESERT
UP THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A 508 DAM LOW
WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILST DRAGGING A POTENT TROUGH AXIS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. OUT WEST...UPPER LOW WILL COME ASHORE
UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR DUE IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NWP HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE NAM/ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP
CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY PROBABLY WONT GET
OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE 30S NORTHWEST
AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ANY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 20S CENTRAL/EAST AND
PROBABLY TEENS NORTHWEST...WELL...AT LEAST MULESHOE.
ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT
MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING THOUGH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS /STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE/ EXISTS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST BUT THE NWP SOLUTIONS ARE NOT YET CONVINCING.
AND IN THE LATTER EXTENDED...THE MJO ENTERED A WEAK PHASE 2 BACK ON
THE 5TH OR 6TH. THIS MAY SUGGEST A COLD SNAP AROUND TUE/WED OF
THANKSGIVING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 41 72 32 40 / 0 0 0 20 10
TULIA 62 43 70 30 41 / 0 0 0 20 10
PLAINVIEW 65 44 71 32 42 / 0 0 0 20 10
LEVELLAND 69 46 72 37 43 / 0 0 0 20 20
LUBBOCK 68 47 71 37 42 / 0 0 0 20 20
DENVER CITY 71 46 69 38 46 / 0 0 0 20 20
BROWNFIELD 71 46 71 35 43 / 0 0 0 20 20
CHILDRESS 62 47 74 36 46 / 0 0 0 20 10
SPUR 68 49 73 37 43 / 0 0 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 69 50 74 42 42 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.UPDATE...
LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND WAS
LYING EAST AND NORTH OF A DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO MEADOW TO
TAHOKA TO JUSTICEBURG TO SWENSON LINE AS OF 16Z. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE FOG WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT
THE WESTERN EDGE WAS STILL ADVANCING WEST. WE CONSIDERED EXTENDING
THE FOG ADVISORY PAST 16Z...BUT RECENT TRENDS AT KLBB AND KPVW
SHOW FOG SLOWLY THINNING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 SM. THIS TREND IS
CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL WEB CAMS AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH BOTH
KAMA AND KCDS WERE STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN THE OVERALL
TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...BUT
GIVEN THE FACT THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD THROUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST
AND THE HWO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DO SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE AND
DENSITY SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY OR SO...THOUGH REMAINING SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER. IT APPEARS THE
STRATUS DECK MAY HANG ON MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES AND FOR THIS REASON DID BUMP
DOWN FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN
REALITY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IF CLOUDS PERSIST ALL
DAY...THOUGH THEY COULD YET SEE A LITTLE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THESE TRENDS DID INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DELAYING THE RETURN OF
SUN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
AVIATION...
DENSE FOG LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KCDS THROUGH ABOUT
15-16Z...PRODUCING VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1/4 STATUTE MILE. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE BY 16Z WITH
CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AROUND 21Z. KLBB WILL SEE STRATUS/FOG MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z
THIS MORNING WITH AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD.
THROUGH 15-16Z...WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID-LATE
MORNING. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT ATTEMPT TO
DEVELOP SOME STRATUS AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT BELIEVE VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS JUNCTURE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
FOG BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE AND PERSISTENT IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL
RESIDE IN THE MID 40S.
SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH
THE ONSET OF THERMALLY INDUCED MIXING...BUT WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE CEILINGS SLOW TO LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE
CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING
IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES...VEER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWLY ERODING
STRATUS UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION. FORECASTING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 70
WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIER.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THUS...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN
THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AND TRY TO
ADVECT NORTH FROM THE BIG COUNTRY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF BROAD
SURFACE RIDGING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE SONORAN DESERT
UP THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A 508 DAM LOW
WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILST DRAGGING A POTENT TROUGH AXIS INTO
OUR AREA BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. OUT WEST...UPPER LOW WILL COME ASHORE
UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE BIG STORY
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR DUE IN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NWP HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE NAM/ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP
CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY PROBABLY WONT GET
OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE 30S NORTHWEST
AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ANY RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 20S CENTRAL/EAST AND
PROBABLY TEENS NORTHWEST...WELL...AT LEAST MULESHOE.
ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT
MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING THOUGH PERHAPS A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS /STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE/ EXISTS IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH TO
OUR WEST BUT THE NWP SOLUTIONS ARE NOT YET CONVINCING.
AND IN THE LATTER EXTENDED...THE MJO ENTERED A WEAK PHASE 2 BACK ON
THE 5TH OR 6TH. THIS MAY SUGGEST A COLD SNAP AROUND TUE/WED OF
THANKSGIVING WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 66 41 72 32 40 / 0 0 0 20 10
TULIA 62 43 70 30 41 / 0 0 0 20 10
PLAINVIEW 65 44 71 32 42 / 0 0 0 20 10
LEVELLAND 69 46 72 37 43 / 0 0 0 20 20
LUBBOCK 68 47 71 37 42 / 0 0 0 20 20
DENVER CITY 71 46 69 38 46 / 0 0 0 20 20
BROWNFIELD 71 46 71 35 43 / 0 0 0 20 20
CHILDRESS 62 47 74 36 46 / 0 0 0 20 10
SPUR 68 49 73 37 43 / 0 0 10 20 20
ASPERMONT 69 50 74 42 42 / 0 0 10 20 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST OF SIX HOURS
AGO. STILL EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z...
PERSISTING THROUGH 16Z. VLIFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AT KAMA AND
KGUY AROUND 12Z BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME UNTIL
HIGHER CERTAINTY OF TIMING CAN BE ATTAINED. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z...WITH
CEILINGS DISIPATING OR LIFTING INTO VFR RANGE BY 20Z AT KAMA AND
KGUY. QUICKER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KDHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH END OF FORECAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
UPDATE...
BIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND FORECAST WERE TO EXPAND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH AND WEST TO BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE. THE 00Z HRRR SHOWING VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE ACROSS TEXAS AND BEAVER
COUNTIES...AND A LITTLE OF EASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY...SOUTH TO POTTER
AND RANDALL COUNTIES EAST TO WHEELER AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES
BETWEEN ROUGHLY FROM 08Z AND 09Z SUNDAY TO 15Z SUNDAY. LATEST NAM
ALSO SUPPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN HALF MILE IN DENSE
FOG AT KAMA AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS
WITH THE 00Z NAM IN THE SMOKE MANAGEMENT GRIDS AND SMOOTHED OUT THE
HOURLY TEMPS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AND UPDATED DEW
POINTS...WINDS...WEATHER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS TONIGHT.
ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT.
SCHNEIDER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
AVIATION...
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY...
WHEN FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LIFR CEILINGS WILL THEN
PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z SUNDAY. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RESUME AROUND
20Z SUNDAY AT KAMA AND KGUY...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT
KDHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE THREE MAIN PERIODS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST.
TONIGHT...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST RISK
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE OFF THE CAPROCK...WHERE
THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY IN THE MID 40S...AND SATURATION COULD BE REACHED AS EARLY AS
1 AM. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
MOISTURE POOLING OFF THE CAPROCK. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...THE
RISK FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY DENSE FOG...IS LESS THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN A COMPLETE TURN FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL
RUNS...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL TRENDED SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS LATER ARRIVAL WILL BE HIGHER TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY HIGHS AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR THE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST
GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL VERY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS
EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT
ONLY.
JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
JOHNSON
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...
HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.
&&
$$
03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
544 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...THIS EVENING
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
11.21Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SOME EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL EFFECT CLARK...TAYLOR...ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES
THROUGH 12.08Z. DUE TO THIS...DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COUNTIES. AFTER 12.08Z...THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A TASTE OF MID DECEMBER FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS COLD AIR FLOWS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE TUMBLED BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TODAY...AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL GO FROM -4 C THIS MORNING...TO -12 C BY 12Z TUE. 850 MB TEMP
ANOMALIES VIA THE SREF REMAINS -1.5 INTO TUE. EXPECTING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL STAY UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HOLDS FAST. NOT AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THAT SAID...LOWS IN LOW TO MID TEENS ARE
LIKELY.
NOT MUCH REBOUND FROM THE COLD START TO TUE...WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS PERSISTING. SOME MINOR WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FILTERING OUT
THE POTENTIAL SUNSHINE. THANKFULLY...THE COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF AS
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RETURN MORE SEASONABLE AIR
TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WED...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE THE SFC HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO WEST...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO
THE SEASONABLE VALUES...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WED NIGHT...SPINNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH MINIMAL QPF CURRENTLY
INDICATED. THIS BIT OF ENERGY COULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLATED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
WON/T OCCUR UNTIL BOTH FEATURES HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST.
MODELS PART WAYS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IT WANTED TO BRING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
11.12Z RUN POINTING TO ONLY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DRIVES A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME. A SFC FRONT WOULD LEAD
THE SHORTWAVE...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
EC HAS THE ANOTHER/SAME SHORTWAVE...BUT ABOUT A DAY BEHIND IT. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING THIS STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MON/TUE. SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD
RESULT...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN WHICH
SCENARIO WILL WIN OUT. WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THROUGH TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN
THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE AT BOTH KLSE AND KRST.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...A SCATTERED 15-25K DECK CLOUDS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
541 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WHILE A POTENT 1043MB SURFACE HIGH IS NOSING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRAILING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA
ARE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE ARRIVE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH...LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS ARE GROWING A LITTLE MORE SOLID THANKS TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND TRAJECTORIES HAVE
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY TO ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION...SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP IN THE
MID TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT WILL STILL HAVE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP NNW WINDS PERSISTENT THOUGH LESS GUSTY. WIND
TRAJECTORIES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT STRATO-CU TO BUILD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE STRATUS BEHAVIOR OVER MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION THOUGH. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND SLIGHTLY. SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE THE LAKE CLOUDS/STRATUS RETREAT TOWARDS THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C
WISCONSIN LATE. BUT DESPITE CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE
BRISK NNW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AND WILL GO WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL CAUSE
MORNING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO RETREAT NORTH TO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
SHOULD OTHERWISE SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. RATHER THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER SOUTH AROUND
MIDDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PARTIALLY FILTER THE SUN. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE BRIEF COLD SNAP WILL END WEDNESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING SOME
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES EAST. THEN DRY AND MILD SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH TWO
SURFACE LOWS IN THE PLAINS PHASING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MOVING INTO MICHIGAN WITH RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WHICH SLOWS AND
DEEPENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WOULD BRING RAIN AND MILD WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN A SNOWSTORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT/S TOO FAR OUT TO THINK ABOUT RIGHT NOW AND IT
IS RATHER EARLY IN THE SEASON...BUT THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS ARE THE ONES
THAT PRODUCE SOME OF THE BIGGER SNOWS IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAINLY VFR CLOUDS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
WINDS TURNING MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT AND ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO FEED INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTH IS FINALLY EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT QUICKLY ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...DROPPING
VSBYS TO 1 1/2SM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MANITOBA. WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMS AND TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE VORT PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS VERY GOOD ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
-DIVQ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE THOUGH...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT SHOULD SEE A
BKN BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PTYPE AS
MOSTLY SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHILE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN PRECIP
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH. COULD SEE A
DUSTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. MAX OMEGA WILL RESIDE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY INTENSE WITHIN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. BECAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING...TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...BUT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOOD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH OFF THE
MORNING LOWS. MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT DURING THE
MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS PARTIALLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY...AND SHOULD LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. MORNING HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEST UPPER RIDGE/EAST TROF TRANSITIONS TO
WESTERN TROF AND EASTERN RIDGE. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PERIOD.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE LK SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT WINDS BACK QUICKLY ENDING THREAT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE...ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM WEAK WAVE PRODUCES A PERIOD OF
LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN...LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI.
AS RIDGE MOVES OFF EAST COAST...DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX NOTED.
ANOTHER WAVE IN SW FLOW PRODUCES LARGER AREA OF RAIN...CLIPPING
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SW FLOW WILL USHER IN MILDER TEMPS AFTER TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMS BY END OF WEEK. TEMP FORECAST A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MVFR STRATUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND EXIT NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. WILL THEN SEE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID TO LATE EVENING...WHILE GUSTY
NORTHWEST BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH AT THE SAME
TIME. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN RAPIDLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD SEE BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW OUT OF
THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY DROPPING VSBYS AS LOW AS IFR.
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END EXCEPT OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN. AS CLOUDS DEPART BY MID MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS GOING INTO TONIGHT IS WITH THE TIMING OF THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS IT COMES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY...A SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVERS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW LEFT OVER
FROM A DEPARTING LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SKIES CLEAR OUT
FURTHER TO THE WEST WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. 10.00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SWINGING THIS RIDGE IN LATER THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD CLEAR OUT THESE PESKY LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE INITIAL FORCING COMES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH THIS WAA BAND AS THERE WILL BE SOME FAIRLY
DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT AS THIS FORCING COMES IN. SOME OF THE
10.00Z MESO MODELS SHOW SOME RETURNS ON THEIR REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCTS...BUT THINKING THAT IT WOULD JUST BE VIRGA WITH THE RAIN
DRYING UP BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BY THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS
LIKE THE FORCING/SATURATION BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN
AND/OR SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THIS WAA
BAND. THE FORCING BECOMES DEEPER OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN AS WELL WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF
IT TO THE SOUTH. THIS DEEPER FORCING APPEARS TO GO ACROSS EASTERN
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...BUT
IT WILL START TO CHANGE OVER AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN WITH THE
COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT OR A DEEP REFREEZE
LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...SO AM NOT THINKING THAT SLEET WILL OCCUR
WITH THE RAIN JUST CHANGING STRAIGHT OVER TO SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON
MONDAY WITH THE WINDOW FOR ANY SNOW APPEARING TO BE VERY SMALL.
THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH IN A FRONTOGENETIC BAND THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD. DEEP
SUBSIDENCE COMES IN QUICKLY THOUGH AND SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY CHANCES
FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING. DUE TO THE LIMITED SHOT OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY
MINOR IF THEY EVEN OCCUR. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO -10C OR LOWER WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW
MUCH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND.
THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO LINGER ONLY FOR A FEW DAYS WITH TUESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NOT GOING
ABOVE FREEZING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO KICK IN
ALREADY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND AN
APPROACHING TROUGH PULLS A WARMER AIR MASS OFF OF THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 10.00Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE REGION IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MEANS THAT THERE SHOULD
BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS ANY FORCING APPEARS TO STAY UP IN SOUTHERN
CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SECONDARY PUSH OF CLOUDS IS WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER BOTH SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS
FOR THE MOST PART ARE VFR BUT WILL LIKELY COME IN MVFR AT KRST
GIVEN ITS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW
LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. THE 10.03Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELD THAN THE 10.00Z NAM AND KEEPS
THE CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN UNTIL 12Z OR SO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THE NEXT ROUND OF VFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 06Z
MONDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK SO CONFIDENCE ON
ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. THE CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK BETTER OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THERE COULD ALSO BE
A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE NAM SUGGEST
THE WINDS AROUND TWO THOUSAND FEET COULD REACH 40 KNOTS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM...HALBACH
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE SOUTHWARD OF 850 TO 925 MB MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AT 800 MB THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN THIS INVERSION LOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PRODUCES ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS
ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE LOOP...THERE ARE CURRENTLY HOLES AT THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AND THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST IN THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DARKNESS
NOT THAT FAR AWAY...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE RUC JUST IN CASE THE CURRENT
MOISTURE THAT IS OUT THERE CAN SPREAD BELOW THE INVERSION.
MEANWHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...THE CLOUD
FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE AREA
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AS THE 925 TO 850 LAPSE
RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG 800 TO 600 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND 280-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE
FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 30 MB.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT
AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE JUST A
TRACE.
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 30 MB
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME...THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
LIKE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THE CONSRAW TENDS TO HANDLE THESE
SITUATIONS THE BEST...WENT WITH IT FOR POPULATING THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN STABILIZE AND RISE
A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF IT WAS NOT FOR
THE LACK OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILLS ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ON TUESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NORMALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8C. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY EVENING...
AND THEN STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE. THE 280-290K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO NOT FALL TO LESS THAN 30 MB
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL IT MOVED INTO THIS AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SECONDARY PUSH OF CLOUDS IS WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA
LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER BOTH SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS
FOR THE MOST PART ARE VFR BUT WILL LIKELY COME IN MVFR AT KRST
GIVEN ITS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW
LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. THE 10.03Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELD THAN THE 10.00Z NAM AND KEEPS
THE CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND
WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN UNTIL 12Z OR SO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD THE NEXT ROUND OF VFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 06Z
MONDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK SO CONFIDENCE ON
ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE IS NOT
VERY HIGH. THE CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK BETTER OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THERE COULD ALSO BE
A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE NAM SUGGEST
THE WINDS AROUND TWO THOUSAND FEET COULD REACH 40 KNOTS FOR A
SHORT PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM....BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW AND FLOODING THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN
AN OB WITH PRECIP IN IT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE OBSERVED A FEW GUSTS
REACHING 34 TO 35 KNOTS. WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...SHOULD SEE THE GUSTINESS CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT PRECIP ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH SOME SURFACE STABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...MARGINALLY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT
PROGGED SOUNDINGS...THEY SHOW DECREASING SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
TOO OPTIMISTIC...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT ALSO ON THERMAL
TROUGHING AND VEERING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z. CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN SO
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. DELTA T/S ARE ONLY AROUND
13-14C...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS AN INCH OVER
NORTHERN VILAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH BACKING WINDS AND A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THEN A MID AND HIGH DECK
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. A 125KT JET
AT 300MB COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A DECENT AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPSTREAM LAKES ARE NOT FROZEN YET AND IT
SEEMS LIKE THEY CONTRIBUTE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR
OUTBREAKS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO
EXTREME AND WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AT TIMES. THE MAIN THING WORKING
AGAINST A BIG EVENT IS THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND ALSO SUBSIDENCE.
THINK THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS
IN VILAS COUNTY.
IT WILL BECOME MILDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER
OF THE COLD AIR PASSES BY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS AND
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING AND DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO WSTRN WI SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MAINLY NC WI TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AND CONDITIONS BECOME BRIEFLY FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE-EFFECT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS SHOWING WINDS INCREASING AT 900MB TONIGHT
INTO THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SUPPORTIVE OF GALES OVER THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT TO DOOR
COUNTY. SO WITH COORDINATION FROM MQT...UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING. SOME DISCUSSION OF UPGRADING TO GALES FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT
SUGGESTS THE HIGHER END GUSTS WILL OCCUR MORE TOWARDS OPEN LAKE THAN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
301 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2013
...Blast of Arctic Air to Arrive Later Today...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Early this morning, the local forecast area remains in a weak
spot in the surface pressure gradient between relatively lower
pressure in the Gulf and near the Bahamas, and an anomalously
strong high pressure building south over the central Plains. The
result is relatively weak flow, and some locally dense fog has
developed in parts of south-central Georgia near Valdosta. This
will be monitored in case an advisory is needed. The main story
will be the approach of the strong cold front from the northwest
today. We remain far enough out ahead of the front currently such
that our highs should be fairly warm - around seasonal normals in
the mid-70s in most locations. The latest HRRR and local 4km WRF-
ARW show the front arriving in the northwest part of our area
around 18-19 UTC, with temperatures beginning to sharply fall
between 20-00 UTC. Therefore, we did not follow the usual diurnal
temperature curve in all areas. The frontal passage looks to be a
dry one, with most of the effects occurring behind the cold front.
More on that below.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Aforementioned arctic front will blow through the forecast area
this evening as a sharp upper trough digs into the Deep South. A
shallow, but much colder air mass will pour into the forecast area
tonight on very gusty northerly winds, as a 1040mb surface high
slides south to the Missouri Bootheel. Winds are expected to gust
to near 35 mph this evening as the cold air advection kicks in.
However, current forecast keeps the winds just below wind
advisory criteria (gusts 40mph or higher or sustained 26mph or
higher).
Outside of the wind, the other concern overnight will be the
potential for a light freeze for southeast Alabama. Statistical
guidance as well as most raw numerical guidance shows portions of
southeast Alabama dropping below 32 degrees for an hour or two
around sunrise. While a pure advection freeze would be somewhat
unusual for early November, the agreement in the guidance has
convinced me to go with a Freeze Watch tonight for southeast
Alabama. The next shift can refine the numbers and make the
decision on whether or not to upgrade to a Freeze Warning. With
temperatures approaching freezing in this area and the strong
northerly winds, wind chill values will reach the lower 20s as
well.
The intense low-level cold advection will continue through the day
on Wednesday as the surface high slides east to the southern
Appalachians. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon are unlikely
to get out of the 50s for all of the region, except perhaps a
portion of Dixie County.
For Wednesday night, the 1033mb surface high is forecast to settle
over the Carolina Piedmont, with the gradient relaxing for the
forecast area. This ridge position is not ideal for radiational
cooling in the TAE CWA. However, give the arctic nature of the
airmass, winds should diminish enough to allow for a widespread
light freeze away from the coast. Lows are generally expected to
be between 29 and 32, but a few colder values are possible in well
sheltered areas. Will issue a freeze watch for most of the area
away from the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Weak upper ridging returns on Thursday. The ridge slides east
Friday becoming centered over or just south of the Bahamas through
the weekend placing the local area in deep moist southwest flow.
The ridge is forecast to flatten Monday as the next trough moves
east from the Central Plains. A few embedded upper level
disturbances combined with increasing deep layer moisture will bring
an unsettled weather pattern with rain chances Friday through the
weekend. Then more rain is expected on Monday with the approach and
possible passage of the next cold front. After chilly mid week
temperatures, we will see a gradual warming trend through the
period. Min and max temps will be below seasonal levels through
Friday recovering to near or just above climo for the weekend and
the first day of next week.
&&
.AVIATION [through 06 UTC Wednesday]...
Despite high clouds encroaching on the area, some fog has developed
over SC-SE Georgia, with VLD roughly on the western periphery of the
area of fog. Latest observations have dipped below airfield minimums
(1/4SM visibility, and 100 foot CIGS). Therefore, we included a
temporary condition for dense fog through 11 UTC, although this may
need to be extended based on trends. At the other terminals, VFR
should prevail, and fog at VLD should dissipate by mid-morning. NW-N
winds will increase in the afternoon. Most gusts will be around
20-25 knots after 21 UTC, but peak gusts could reach as high as
30-35 knots - especially in the evening (after 00 UTC).
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate rapidly late
this afternoon into the evening in the wake of a strong cold
front. Northerly 30 knot winds are expected by mid-evening over
the waters, with frequent gusts to gale force. The frequent gusts
to gale force necessitate a Gale Warning for the waters by mid-
evening lasting through early Wednesday morning. Thereafter, a
tight pressure gradient will keep Small Craft Advisory conditions
in place into much of Thursday. Conditions should drop below
headline levels by Friday into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels today will remain above critical levels,
but we should see gradually increasing winds and high dispersion
values. Fuels will continue to dry today. Over much of the area,
the last ten days have not had any wetting rains. Tomorrow
(Wednesday), a much drier air mass will surge into the area behind
a cold front. The combination of low relative humidity and breezy
winds could create red flag conditions over much of our Alabama
and Florida zones. Despite earlier concerns about ERC values in
Florida, the latest ERC forecast for today has all zones at least
at 24, and with another day of drying it`s at least conceivable
that any zones could reach the minimum threshold of 26 for red
flag criteria. Therefore, we expanded the Fire Weather Watch to
include all Florida zones. Relative humidity levels rebound
quickly by Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With minimal rain chances in the forecast, there will be no
hydrological concerns over the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 76 40 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 74 40 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 72 32 54 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 73 33 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 76 38 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 76 42 60 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 75 42 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH Wednesday afternoon for Calhoun-Central
Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Wakulla-Holmes-
Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-South Walton-Washington.
FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland
Bay-Inland Jefferson-Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
Madison-Washington.
GA...FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-
Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-
Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-
Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
AL...FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH Wednesday afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
Henry-Houston.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton
Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
GALE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60
NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Camp
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1257 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL RETURN IN
FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...THEN EXPECT A WARM UP AS WE ENTER INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WEAKENING TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN DRY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE EXCEPT SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS EVENING/S SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME OF
THIS CLOUDINESS GETTING INTO THE EXTREME EAST PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE LATEST RAP KEEPS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAK AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE EAST PART. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
PREVIOUS DAYS...AND ALSO HAS IT MOVING THROUGH AS AN OPEN TROUGH
ALOFT INSTEAD OF TRYING TO CUT OFF A LOW. MODELS SHOW THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND THEN IS JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS NOW LOOKING AS IF IT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WILL LAG THE MAIN FRONT BY 12-24 HOURS
THOUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
BEFORE STEADYING OUT LATE IN THE DAY...AND THEN RAPIDLY FALLING
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH HAS SPED UP
IN ALL THE MODELS ALSO...AND THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE
DIMINISHED. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AS IF THE BEST CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE FROM AROUND 12/22Z TO 13/04Z. DURING THIS
WINDOW...SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S. ALOFT...THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION IN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWS VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...IF
ANY AT ALL...WHICH WOULD ALSO INDICATE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN.
AFTER 13/06Z ...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWEEPS RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION ON STRONG GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 30S UNDER DRY CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUT HIGHS WILL
STRUGGLE...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTING LOW
CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AND A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WILL MODERATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS...SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CIGS
MAINLY TO OUR S AND E...MAY AFFECT OGB IN THE NEAR TERM BEFORE
PUSHING TO OUR EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SHIFTING AND
INCREASING WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL KEEP
FORECAST VFR AT THIS TIME. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXPECT DECREASING WINDS EARLY WED. NO
IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED WED/THU AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST BY THU NT/FRI. SOME CIG
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THU NT INTO EARLY FRI. SOME CIG
RESTRICTIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EXPECTED FRI/SAT.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES SUN/MON.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
321 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
955 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OR FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT FORECAST READINGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
LOWERED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGITS AT SOME FAVORED
OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR HAS FLOODED THE REGION WITH 20S AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -14C NOT FAR UPSTREAM FROM THE 00Z GRB RAOB. MODIFYING
THAT GRB SOUNDING FOR TEMP/DEW POINTS OBSERVED AT THE SOUTH
BUOY...WHICH SHOULD BOTH REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
TONIGHT...YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS
OF AROUND 6000 FT /EL AROUND 9000 FT/. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WITH SOME ECHOES TOWARD MID-LAKE. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER
ECHOES IN THERE ALONG WITH A STRAND OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
SATELLITE...WHICH SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
CURRENTLY THAT IS POINTING INTO BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN.
NO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THAT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS...WITH NUMEROUS SOURCES HAVING A NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WOBBLING THAT AREA
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. WITH NO
REAL CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...COULD ENVISION THIS STRUGGLES TO
MOVE BACK WEST MUCH. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHOWERS ALREADY EXIST AND
ON A CONVERGENT AXIS POINT TOWARD SOMEWHERE IS PROBABLE TO GET
HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY STILL JUST EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RAPID CUT-OFF TO THE WEST INTO OR JUST EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY. SO IT REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT THE TWO COUNTIES UNDER
THE ADVISORY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP SOME LATER TONIGHT AS SOME
COLD AIR STRATOCU IN EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...NOT SO MUCH A CONVERGENT AXIS OF THEM...BUT A FEW DRIFT
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INCLUDING CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT RE-INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL READINGS
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE TEENS
AND SET THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE THE WINDS EASE
WHICH WILL BE THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT THE PROBABILITY OF NEEDING TO LOWER...WHICH MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY INDICATING MAY BE A CHILLY ONE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NRN IL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ANY PCPN
AND LAYERED CLOUD HAS PUSHED WILL TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT GYY. PERSISTENT NNWY-NLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD STREAMING INTO NRN INDIANA...IMPACTING GYY. ALSO
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A LAKE EFFECT PLUME OF SNOW HAS SET UP
OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE LAKE AND THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN
THAT THE PLUME MAY MEANDER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING SOME SNOW TO
GYY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN
LAKE EFFECT PLUME SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF GYY...BUT THIS SITE COULD
STILL SEE SOME SHSN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH WEATHER GROUP FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS...WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH WISCONSIN...THOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE PORTIONS OF
THE CLOUD COVER WELL INLAND ERODING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN WITH BKN-OVC COVERAGE WITH 040-050
BASES. WILL START OUT WITH SCT050...THROUGH PERIODS OF BKN CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WILL BE VFR.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. WITH SKIES CLEARING...THE SFC LAYER IS DECOUPLING FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND GUSTINESS HAS ENDED AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS LIKELY AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY BACKING FROM NWLY TO WLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5KT BY
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD
BE UNRESTRICTED WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER SOME PASSING ALTOSTRATUS
OR CI.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 09Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
315 AM CST
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND SPREADS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NWLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE GRADUALLY DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP
BRISK NWLY-WLY WINDS OVER THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO
QUICKLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO NORTHERN QUEBEC
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS ANOTHER...WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN
PLAINS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHILL RE-INTENSIFY AND THE BRISK
WEST WINDS WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND RAMP BACK UP TO
35-40KT GALES ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
SINCE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER AREA AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...STRONG WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO...IN ADDITION TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE OPEN
WATERS...THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
WELL.
KREIN
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1151 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
955 PM CST
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY OR FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR PORTER COUNTY TONIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ELSEWHERE SLIGHTLY. LOOKING AHEAD TO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT FORECAST READINGS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE
LOWERED...WITH A CHANCE FOR SINGLE DIGITS AT SOME FAVORED
OUTLYING LOCATIONS.
COLD AIR HAS FLOODED THE REGION WITH 20S AT THE SURFACE AND 850MB
TEMPS OF -14C NOT FAR UPSTREAM FROM THE 00Z GRB RAOB. MODIFYING
THAT GRB SOUNDING FOR TEMP/DEW POINTS OBSERVED AT THE SOUTH
BUOY...WHICH SHOULD BOTH REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT
TONIGHT...YIELDS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 200 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS
OF AROUND 6000 FT /EL AROUND 9000 FT/. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A BLOSSOMING OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WITH SOME ECHOES TOWARD MID-LAKE. THERE ARE SOME HIGHER
ECHOES IN THERE ALONG WITH A STRAND OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON IR
SATELLITE...WHICH SEEM TO LINE UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
LAKE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
CURRENTLY THAT IS POINTING INTO BERRIEN COUNTY MICHIGAN.
NO SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THAT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS...WITH NUMEROUS SOURCES HAVING A NORTHWEST WIND
OVER THE MICHIGAN SHORE WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WOBBLING THAT AREA
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE WEST...WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO PORTER COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS. WITH NO
REAL CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE FIELD...GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS...COULD ENVISION THIS STRUGGLES TO
MOVE BACK WEST MUCH. BUT GIVEN THAT THE SHOWERS ALREADY EXIST AND
ON A CONVERGENT AXIS POINT TOWARD SOMEWHERE IS PROBABLE TO GET
HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIALLY STILL JUST EAST OF THE AREA
WITH A RAPID CUT-OFF TO THE WEST INTO OR JUST EAST OF PORTER
COUNTY. SO IT REMAINS CHALLENGING...BUT THE TWO COUNTIES UNDER
THE ADVISORY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...HAVE BUMPED CLOUD COVER UP SOME LATER TONIGHT AS SOME
COLD AIR STRATOCU IN EASTERN WI CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH...AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE SOME ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS...NOT SO MUCH A CONVERGENT AXIS OF THEM...BUT A FEW DRIFT
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INCLUDING CHICAGO LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY
CAUSE A SLIGHT RE-INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT OVERALL READINGS
SHOULD SLOWLY DROP. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE TEENS
AND SET THE STAGE FOR VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ONCE THE WINDS EASE
WHICH WILL BE THE CASE TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL PASS ALONG TO THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT THE PROBABILITY OF NEEDING TO LOWER...WHICH MOS
GUIDANCE IS ALREADY INDICATING MAY BE A CHILLY ONE.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER NRN IL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ANY PCPN
AND LAYERED CLOUD HAS PUSHED WILL TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT GYY. PERSISTENT NNWY-NLY WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUD STREAMING INTO NRN INDIANA...IMPACTING GYY. ALSO
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A LAKE EFFECT PLUME OF SNOW HAS SET UP
OVER THE SERN CORNER OF THE LAKE AND THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN
THAT THE PLUME MAY MEANDER FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING SOME SNOW TO
GYY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MAIN
LAKE EFFECT PLUME SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF GYY...BUT THIS SITE COULD
STILL SEE SOME SHSN...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE VCSH WEATHER GROUP FOR
NOW. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS...WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH WISCONSIN...THOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE PORTIONS OF
THE CLOUD COVER WELL INLAND ERODING WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN HAVE BEEN HOLDING IN WITH BKN-OVC COVERAGE WITH 040-050
BASES. WILL START OUT WITH SCT050...THROUGH PERIODS OF BKN CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY CIGS DEVELOPING WILL BE VFR.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NWLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW. WITH SKIES CLEARING...THE SFC LAYER IS DECOUPLING FROM
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND GUSTINESS HAS ENDED AND SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTINESS IS LIKELY AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY BACKING FROM NWLY TO WLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5KT BY
SUNSET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...SKIES SHOULD
BE UNRESTRICTED WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER SOME PASSING ALTOSTRATUS
OR CI.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
* WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHSN BEFORE DAYBREAK.
* SATURDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA. MVFR POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
351 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
BKN LK EFFECT BANDING NOTED THIS MORNING IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND
A FUNCTION OF SOME IN CLOUD SHEAR AHD OF APCHG MID LVL SW TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH WI ATTM. HWVR WELL DEFINED AND STG CVRG ZONE
NOTED IN BUOY/SFC OBS W/SOME ORGANIZATION NOTED RECENTLY TO SNOW
BAND WWD OF MUSKEGON/HOLLAND. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE CONTS TO
FOLLOW PRIOR EARLY EVENING TRENDS OF PUSHING BAND WWD INTO NW IN
IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LL THERMAL TROUGH/LAND BREEZE CIRC AND
SO FAR THE CASE SINCE 1 AM AS BAND HAD SHIFTED WEST OF BENTON
HARBOR. THUS W/MORNING ISSUANCE WILL DROP PRIOR HEADLINES ACRS ST
JOE/MARSHALL/PULASKI WHILE LEAVING REMAINDER OF WSW INTACT AS
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS STILL CLEARLY FVRD LTR THIS MORNING. XPC BAND
WILL PEAK IN 10-15Z TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO LESSENING SHEAR
BUT CONVERSELY RAPIDLY BREAKUP EWD AS MID LVL TROUGH PASSES TWD
18Z AS STG AND VRY DRY SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES BAND. AT LEAST ONE
IN/HR SNOW RATES LIKELY ACRS LAPORTE AND SWRN BERRIEN COUNTIES LTR
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 1040MB SFC
RIDGE AND DECOUPLED SFC FLW WILL YIELD A VRY COLD NIGHT W/TEMPS NOT
FAR FM RECORD MINS. DEEP SNOW CVR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
WILL AWAIT RESULTS OF SNOW ACCUMS THAT FALL OUT TDA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ENSEMBLE SPREADS AMONG
MEMBERS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND HOW FAST. USED THE MEAN GFS
ENSEMBLE BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE WEST SOLUTION WITH
SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
LAND BREEZE CIRC INTENSIFICATION WELL UNDERWAY W/RECENT NOTABLE
VEERING ALG WRN MI SHORELINE ALG W/NOTED SINGLE BAND
INTENSIFICATION WEST OF KMKG. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RUC...LOCAL WRF AND ESP HRRR MODEL LOOK PROMISING BY TAKING
BAND WWD INTO NW IN TWD 12Z AND THEN BENDING BACK EWD AS LARGER
SCALE FLW BEGINS TO BACK W/APCH OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. THUS XPC
NO PROBS AT KSBN THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z AND PERHAPS LONGER BUT
EVENTUALLY BAND WILL WORK THROUGH KSBN AIRFIELD IN 15-18Z WINDOW
W/BRIEF IFR FUEL ALT PSBL BUT PASSAGE OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID A BREAKDOWN.
VFR CONDS OTRWS THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ004-012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR
WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FOCUS OF SHORT TERM IS ON POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION
REGARDING THIS EVENING`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS VALID.
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO OUR NORTHWEST
CWA AND EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN
RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPS AND BRIEF TIME WINDOW BEFORE DRY AIR
ADVECTION BRINGS AN END TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIP LATER THIS
EVENING.
VERY COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS NEAR 2 SD BELOW NORMAL WILL THEN
FILTER OVER THE STILL VERY WARM LAKE BY LATER THIS EVENING.
INITIALLY...A RESPECTABLE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP CONVECTIVE
DEPTHS TO 8 KFT OR LESS BUT THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL ARRIVE BY
LATER TONIGHT...ALLOWING 700MB DELTA-T`S TO RISE TO AROUND 30C AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS TO APPROACH 12KFT. FETCH IS NEARLY IDEAL FOR OUR
CWA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH OVER MUCH OF
THE LAKE. ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE FROM APPROACHING RIDGE RESULTS IN
NORTHERLY OR EVEN SLIGHTLY NNE FLOW OVER OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND
ALMOST ALL OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE BAND OF ENHANCED OMEGA
CURLING A BIT OVER BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES. CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPINGING RIDGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A SINGLE
DOMINANT BAND FORMING BY AROUND 06Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH ALMOST
18Z TOMORROW. DEGREE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS STILL VERY MUCH A CONCERN.
MODELS STILL INDICATE VERY DRY MIDLEVELS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LIMITED LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION FOR OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LONG AXIS FETCH AND EXPECTED DOMINANT BAND
FORMATION STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE EXACT TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS BAND WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY
WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. CONVECTIVE DEPTHS WONT INITIALLY
REACH THE FAVORED DGZ BUT DO REACH THAT LEVEL BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HIGH SNOW RATIOS AND
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES. LAKE EFFECT BAND MAY MEANDER A BIT DURING THE
PERIOD AND STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE
IMPACTED AREA BUT EXPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW BAND OF 4-8"
ACCUMULATION SOMEWHERE IN LAPORTE AND WESTERN BERRIEN/ST. JOSEPH IN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY AND THE ORIENTATION
OF THE BAND. EVEN IF SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NOT QUITE THAT HIGH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...THE PEAK OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE AND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
OF THE SEASON. HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING FOR OUR NORTHWEST THREE AND LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY DOWNSTREAM
IN STARKE, PULASKI, AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO
BACK BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A QUICK END TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL BY AROUND 18Z. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID 30S WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND PRODUCING APPARENT TEMPS IN THE 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL LATER PERIODS WITH
APPROACH OF A DEEPER TROUGH AND POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
COLD AIR NEAR OF JUST OUTSIDE THE DAY 7 PERIOD.
ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ENDING BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
TUE NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWEST.
KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY PART OF EVENING BUT
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NUDGES INTO
THE AREA. THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT ITS
INFLUENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CLEAR SKIES MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OR CALM OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST AREAS.
THIS BECOMES PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AS STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED DESPITE WEAK WARMING ALOFT. EXPECTED SNOW COVER
FROM LAKE EFFECT WILL HELP THE COOLING PROCESS OVER WESTERN AREAS.
WITH MOS AND CONSENSUS BLEND GUIDANCE ALREADY IN THE TEENS...HAVE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES MORE TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER. LOWS MAY FLIRT
WITH RECORDS IN THESE AREAS DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WINDS DECOUPLE AND
SKIES CLEAR.
WED HIGHS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN WEST GIVEN COLDER START SO ADJUSTED
ALLBLEND DOWN. MODELS SHOWING A NICE WARMING TREND WITH QUIET
WEATHER INTO EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE DIFFERENCES
BECOME VERY PRONOUNCED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER PLAINS WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO
LOWER 48. GFS ONCE AGAIN VERY FAST WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
TROUGH AND COLDER AIR WITH ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
PREFER TO GO CLOSER TO ALLBLEND AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD
KEEP OUR AREA ON WARMER SIDE OF BOUNDARY MONDAY. PCPN CHANCES BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LATTER PORTION OF WEEKEND
WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION. TEMPS TO REBOUND QUITE NICELY INTO UPPER 50S WITH A
CHANCE AT SOME 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
LAND BREEZE CIRC INTENSIFICATION WELL UNDERWAY W/RECENT NOTABLE
VEERING ALG WRN MI SHORELINE ALG W/NOTED SINGLE BAND
INTENSIFICATION WEST OF KMKG. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
THE RUC...LOCAL WRF AND ESP HRRR MODEL LOOK PROMISING BY TAKING
BAND WWD INTO NW IN TWD 12Z AND THEN BENDING BACK EWD AS LARGER
SCALE FLW BEGINS TO BACK W/APCH OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. THUS XPC
NO PROBS AT KSBN THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z AND PERHAPS LONGER BUT
EVENTUALLY BAND WILL WORK THROUGH KSBN AIRFIELD IN 15-18Z WINDOW
W/BRIEF IFR FUEL ALT PSBL BUT PASSAGE OF MID LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID A BREAKDOWN.
VFR CONDS OTRWS THROUGH THE PD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ012>014.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ003-004.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1149 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
//DISCUSSION...
DRY ARCTIC AIR UNDER N-NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE
LOW CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD HOLD THROUGH DAYBREAK. THERE CERTAINLY IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE LAKE CLOUDS FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY ADVANCE TOWARD SE MI...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME
BRIEF INTERVALS OF OVERCAST SKIES. GIVEN THE INVERSION
HEIGHT...CLOUD BASES SHOULD HOLD MAINLY BETWEEN 4K AND 5K FT. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TUES
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID STRATO CU FIELD BACK
INTO SE MI.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ049-MIZ055...UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
317 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SOUTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL USHER IS GRADUAL WARMING.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS COVERING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE CLOUDS...WITH THE
RAP DOING AN OK JOB. THE RAP SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z...AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
15-16Z. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE OCCURRING DUE TO
LAKE PROCESSES. WE UPPED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
FOLLOWED THE RAP IN DIMINISHING THEM THROUGH THE MORNING. WE ALSO
MENTION SOME FLURRIES...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
BY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER TWENTIES.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM -10C TO -14C THIS MORNING TO +6C TO +9C
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THERE WILL
BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLING A STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING INVERSION DUE TO THE WAA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WHERE
THE WIND IS ABLE TO GO LIGHT. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
AND STRONG THROUGH THE DAY LIMITING THE MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS
LOWER THAN IF WE HAD BETTER MIXING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-MS/OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM OMAHA TO
MARQUETTE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT ALSO
ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
N/NW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. THE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA...INCLUDING KBRD/HIB/KINL...WILL SEE
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A
GENERAL CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THESE LOW CIGS
AROUND 2500 FT ARE LINGERING MUCH LONGER THAN THOUGHT...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THE MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO LATER THIS MORNING.
THE LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BECOME W TO WSW TODAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 16 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
INL 30 17 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 29 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 26 15 40 28 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 32 18 43 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1126 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog is forming across parts of the area ahead of a strong
cold front. Visibilities may drop as low as 1/4sm in some
locations. The front currently across the southern Texas panhandle
will move quickly south through the terminals overnight. North to
northeast winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusty is expected behind the
front with IFR and MVFR ceilings developing. There could also be a
TEMPO period of MVFR visibilities in fog late tonight and early
Tuesday morning. Generally MVFR ceilings expected at all the
terminals during the day Tuesday with winds diminishing to 10 to
15 mph by Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013/
UPDATE...
Moving things up by about 2-3 hours...
DISCUSSION...
Going to shoot out a quick update here in a bit to accelerate the front
by a few hours. Latest obs of temperature advection, 2D frontogenesis,
and grad mag thetae pairs up nicely with latest RUC13 progs. Looks
to me that the cold air is lagging the wind shift by about an hour
and that this lag may collapse as grad mag thetae catches up with
the boundary after 06Z or so. Wouldn`t be surprised if areas along
the front will see v dot del dirt (thanks, LUB!) lowering visibilities
briefly to below 3SM.
Have to look at lowering precip chances as we`re not overly optimistic.
Latest BUFR soundings keep the significant moist layer above the
inversion above 0C, and we`re not seeing much in the way of column
moistening or the potential for cold rain processes. However an
area of fog and maybe drizzle lagging FROPA by an hour or so looks
to be a safe bet. Probably key off RUC13 and what we can synthesize
from the latest HRRR output on winds, temps, and dewpoints. Don`t
expect much adjustments beyond maybe 18Z tomorrow, and that would
be for continuity more than anything else.
Wind chill will be the significant impact felt around here during the
morning hours...while temperatures will be significantly colder,
freezing temps aren`t expected until late Tuesday night. Northeasterly
winds 20-30 mph will make it feel like it`s in the 20s, however.
Dress warm and make sure pets and plants are tended to.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
Warm temperatures are present this afternoon with some remnant low
clouds across the southeast Permian Basin and the Lower Trans
Pecos. A large upper level trough is over the Great Lakes region
with an associated arctic cold front currently racing southward
across the plains toward northern Oklahoma. Temperatures behind
this front in Kansas are mostly in the 30s. This modified arctic
cold front should reach the northern Permian Basin and southeast New
Mexico shortly after midnight CST. Strong gusty winds are expected
with this front. The winds across the Guadalupe Mountains may
approach high wind criteria Tuesday morning. Did not issue a High
Wind Warning yet since conditions are marginal but do expect winds
to be gusty through the pass. Light rain and areas of fog are also
expected with the front. The rain is expected to spread across the
CWA as the front moves south. The fog will develop south and west
of the Pecos River during the later morning hours. Temperatures
will be significantly colder tomorrow with highs in the 30s to 40s
across the northern 2/3rds of the CWA. The warmest temperatures of
the day will be during the early morning hours for most of the area.
The rain will end across the Permian Basin after sunset Tuesday
evening and will mostly be concentrated south and west of the Pecos
River. This will allow for skies to clear across most of the
Permian Basin Wednesday morning. These clearing skies along with
near calm winds and a surface high across the region will allow for
temperatures to plummet. A hard freeze is possible for most of the Permian
Basin Wednesday morning so a Freeze Watch has been issued.
Temperatures will warm up on Wednesday afternoon but are still
expected to remain well below normal values. Another upper trough
will swing southward toward the Southern Plains on Thursday. This
will send a cold front into the northern CWA Thursday night, but
this front should not have much of an impact on temperatures. Rain
will be possible Friday as another upper trough approaches from the
west. The rain is then expected to spread eastward on Saturday. The
GFS and ECMWF are different in regards to the approaching upper
trough next weekend into early next week. Thus, the timing of the
cold front associated with this trough is in question. The GFS
pushes the cold front through on Sunday and attempts to form a low
south into Mexico. The ECMWF brings in the front on Monday and
hints at a low developing over southern Arizona. Due to this
discrepancy, did not have much confidence in the extended forecast
in regards to temperatures.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...
Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Martin...Midland...
Mitchell...Reagan...Scurry.
&&
$$
29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR SHIFTED A BIT FASTER TO THE
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ON TUESDAY MORNING...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS ABOVE
15K FEET. AS THE 1045 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHIFTS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST DURING THE MORNING AND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
11.21Z RAP CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT SOME EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL EFFECT CLARK...TAYLOR...ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES
THROUGH 12.08Z. DUE TO THIS...DRAMATICALLY INCREASED THE CLOUDS
ACROSS THE COUNTIES. AFTER 12.08Z...THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A TASTE OF MID DECEMBER FOR EARLY NOVEMBER AS COLD AIR FLOWS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES
HAVE TUMBLED BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT TODAY...AND 850 MB TEMPS
WILL GO FROM -4 C THIS MORNING...TO -12 C BY 12Z TUE. 850 MB TEMP
ANOMALIES VIA THE SREF REMAINS -1.5 INTO TUE. EXPECTING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL STAY UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HOLDS FAST. NOT AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. THAT SAID...LOWS IN LOW TO MID TEENS ARE
LIKELY.
NOT MUCH REBOUND FROM THE COLD START TO TUE...WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS PERSISTING. SOME MINOR WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS...BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FILTERING OUT
THE POTENTIAL SUNSHINE. THANKFULLY...THE COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF AS
A SHIFT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL RETURN MORE SEASONABLE AIR
TO THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WED...PERSISTING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE THE SFC HIGH SINKS SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO WEST...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO
THE SEASONABLE VALUES...POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WED NIGHT...SPINNING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON THU. THIS COULD PRODUCE A BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WITH MINIMAL QPF CURRENTLY
INDICATED. THIS BIT OF ENERGY COULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE SLATED
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN MN. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
WON/T OCCUR UNTIL BOTH FEATURES HAVE PASSED TO THE EAST.
MODELS PART WAYS FOR THE WEEKEND. THE EC HAS BACKED OFF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IT WANTED TO BRING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE
11.12Z RUN POINTING TO ONLY WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE GFS DRIVES A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE SAME TIME. A SFC FRONT WOULD LEAD
THE SHORTWAVE...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE
EC HAS THE ANOTHER/SAME SHORTWAVE...BUT ABOUT A DAY BEHIND IT. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING THIS STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MON/TUE. SOME SIGNIFICANT PCPN COULD
RESULT...ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN WHICH
SCENARIO WILL WIN OUT. WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR
NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...AND THEN A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SCATTERED DECK
OF CLOUDS OVER 15K FEET FOR TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN SKIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN CLEAR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE 1045 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHIFTS SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE WINDS WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST DURING
THE MORNING AND TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1058 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WHILE A POTENT 1043MB SURFACE HIGH IS NOSING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRAILING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA
ARE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE ARRIVE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH...LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS ARE GROWING A LITTLE MORE SOLID THANKS TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND TRAJECTORIES HAVE
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY TO ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION...SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP IN THE
MID TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT WILL STILL HAVE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP NNW WINDS PERSISTENT THOUGH LESS GUSTY. WIND
TRAJECTORIES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT STRATO-CU TO BUILD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE STRATUS BEHAVIOR OVER MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION THOUGH. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND SLIGHTLY. SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE THE LAKE CLOUDS/STRATUS RETREAT TOWARDS THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C
WISCONSIN LATE. BUT DESPITE CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE
BRISK NNW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AND WILL GO WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL CAUSE
MORNING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO RETREAT NORTH TO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
SHOULD OTHERWISE SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. RATHER THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER SOUTH AROUND
MIDDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PARTIALLY FILTER THE SUN. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE BRIEF COLD SNAP WILL END WEDNESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING SOME
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES EAST. THEN DRY AND MILD SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH TWO
SURFACE LOWS IN THE PLAINS PHASING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MOVING INTO MICHIGAN WITH RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WHICH SLOWS AND
DEEPENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WOULD BRING RAIN AND MILD WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN A SNOWSTORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT/S TOO FAR OUT TO THINK ABOUT RIGHT NOW AND IT
IS RATHER EARLY IN THE SEASON...BUT THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS ARE THE ONES
THAT PRODUCE SOME OF THE BIGGER SNOWS IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
PASSING LAKE EFFECT VFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE WINDS TURNING TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO FEED INTO
THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......TDH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1034 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...
A BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEW NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE NNE WINDS FROM 2 TO 7 THSD FT TONIGHT. THE LAKE SNOW THAT WAS
OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PUSHING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRUSH THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WITH CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NNW THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PUSHING ANY LAKE SNOW BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
A BAND OF VFR STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEW NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE A LITTLE
MORE NNE WINDS FROM 2 TO 7 THSD FT TONIGHT. THE LAKE SNOW THAT WAS
OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS BEEN PUSHING
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRUSH THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES WITH MVFR
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NNW THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PUSHING ANY LAKE SNOW BACK OUT OVER THE LAKE. THEN VFR
CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013/
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE LAST OF THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS...WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF
KENOSHA BETWEEN 21Z AND 22Z. THE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
WITHIN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE SNOW
INTENSITY AND ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED ON GRASSY AREAS...WITH ROADS JUST REMAINING WET.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND CLEAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRIER AIR WITHIN STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION REGIME. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHWEST AND BECOME LESS GUSTY LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT. 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS SUGGEST
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOWER 20S NEAR THE LAKE. THIS IS QUITE A COLD
AIRMASS...AS NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
SOME MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING...EXITING DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH MIXING
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 30 IN MOST AREAS...STILL WELL BELOW NORMALS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH THE COLD SPELL COMING TO AN END AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. WARM ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT RAISES 850 MB TEMPERATURES 6C TO
8C...AND 925MB TEMPS 4C TO 5C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
IMPACT AT THE SURFACE AS NOCTURNAL INVERSION PREVENTS MIXING WITH
LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR ONE MORE NIGHT.
925MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BUT IMPACT OF THE SHORTER
DAYS BEING FELT AND WITH THE COOL MORNING START LIMITS MIXING UP TO
THAT LEVEL. CONSRAW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S LOOK ON
TRACK.
BETTER MIXING OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. TWO
ROUNDS OF LIFT WITH THE FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
REFLECTED IN LOW LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX MOVING ACROSS IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE SECOND ROUND OF LIFT WITH DCVA
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS REFLECTED IN UPPER LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MAX MOVING IN OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR THE FIRST ROUND OF LIFT SO TAGGED
BETTER PCPN CHANCES TO THE SECOND ROUND THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NW 1/2 THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
EARLIER POTENTIAL ON FASTER MODELS.
TEMPS COOL WITH PASSAGE OF TROUGH SO WENT WITH RAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EVENING GOING TO
ALL SNOW IN THE NW OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO
MEDIUM.
MID-RANGE MODELS TAKE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE EAST BY 12 NOON
FRIDAY. DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH TIMING/POSITION LEAVE A WIDE
VARIANCE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. COLDER GFS HAS 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES BELOW 540 DM...AND BRINGS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WI/IL
BORDER SUNDAY WITH EVEN LOWER THICKNESSES FILTERING IN BEHIND. WILL
STAY WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR NOW THAT LEANS TOWARD THE WARMER
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST.
STILL A WET SUNDAY...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN COOLING TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH CONDITIONS BETWEEN ALTERNATE AND
AIRPORT MINIMUMS...WILL END AT KENOSHA BY 2130Z. EXPECT UP TO ONE
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT RUNWAYS SHOULD JUST
REMAIN WET.
GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING...GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS. THE GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS PASS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING...BECOMING NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE HIGH WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...AND LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1048 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2013
...Blast of Arctic Air to Arrive Later Today...
.NEAR TERM [Rest of Today]...
This morning, the local forecast area remains in a weak
spot in the surface pressure gradient between relatively lower
pressure in the Gulf and near the Bahamas, and an anomalously
strong high pressure center building south over the Central
Plains. The 12 UTC surface analysis showed a 1047-mb high centered
over eastern Nebraska. A strong cold front at the leading edge of
this airmass will reach our northwestern zones late in the day. We
remain far enough out ahead of the front that our highs should be
fairly warm, around seasonal normals in the lower to mid 70s. The
latest HRRR and local 4km WRF- ARW show the front arriving in the
northwest part of our area around 18-19 UTC, with temperatures
beginning to sharply fall between 20-00 UTC. Therefore, we did not
follow the usual diurnal temperature curve in all areas. The
frontal passage looks to be a dry one, with most of the effects
occurring behind the cold front. More on that below.
&&
.SHORT TERM [6 PM This Evening Through Thursday]...
Aforementioned arctic front will blow through the forecast area
this evening as a sharp upper trough digs into the Deep South. A
shallow, but much colder air mass will pour into the forecast area
tonight on very gusty northerly winds, as a 1040mb surface high
slides south to the Missouri Boot heel. Winds are expected to gust
to near 35 mph this evening as the cold air advection kicks in.
However, current forecast keeps the winds just below wind
advisory criteria (gusts 40mph or higher or sustained 26mph or
higher).
Outside of the wind, the other concern overnight will be the
potential for a light freeze for southeast Alabama. Statistical
guidance as well as most raw numerical guidance shows portions of
southeast Alabama dropping below 32 degrees for an hour or two
around sunrise. While a pure advection freeze would be somewhat
unusual for early November, the agreement in the guidance has
convinced me to go with a Freeze Watch tonight for southeast
Alabama. The next shift can refine the numbers and make the
decision on whether or not to upgrade to a Freeze Warning. With
temperatures approaching freezing in this area and the strong
northerly winds, wind chill values will reach the lower 20s as
well.
The intense low-level cold advection will continue through the day
on Wednesday as the surface high slides east to the southern
Appalachians. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon are unlikely
to get out of the 50s for all of the region, except perhaps a
portion of Dixie County.
For Wednesday night, the 1033mb surface high is forecast to settle
over the Carolina Piedmont, with the gradient relaxing for the
forecast area. This ridge position is not ideal for radiational
cooling in the TAE CWA. However, give the arctic nature of the
airmass, winds should diminish enough to allow for a widespread
light freeze away from the coast. Lows are generally expected to
be between 29 and 32, but a few colder values are possible in well
sheltered areas. Will issue a freeze watch for most of the area
away from the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Weak upper ridging returns on Thursday. The ridge slides east
Friday becoming centered over or just south of the Bahamas through
the weekend placing the local area in deep moist southwest flow.
The ridge is forecast to flatten Monday as the next trough moves
east from the Central Plains. A few embedded upper level
disturbances combined with increasing deep layer moisture will bring
an unsettled weather pattern with rain chances Friday through the
weekend. Then more rain is expected on Monday with the approach and
possible passage of the next cold front. After chilly mid week
temperatures, we will see a gradual warming trend through the
period. Min and max temps will be below seasonal levels through
Friday recovering to near or just above climo for the weekend and
the first day of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12 UTC Wednesday] VFR conditions should prevail through
this TAF cycle with mainly cirrus clouds overhead. NW-N winds will
increase in the afternoon behind a cold front. Most gusts will be
around 20-25 knots after 21 UTC, but peak gusts could reach as
high as 30-35 knots, especially in the evening (after 00 UTC). The
strong winds will prevent any visibility restrictions from
developing overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions over the coastal waters will deteriorate rapidly late
this afternoon into the evening in the wake of a strong cold
front. Northerly 25- to 30-knot winds are expected by mid-evening
over the waters, with frequent gusts to gale force. The frequent
gusts to gale force necessitate a Gale Warning for the waters by
mid-evening lasting through early Wednesday morning. Thereafter,
a tight pressure gradient will keep Small Craft Advisory
conditions in place into much of Thursday. Conditions should
drop below headline levels by Friday into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels today will remain above critical levels,
but we should see gradually increasing winds and high dispersion
values. Fuels will continue to dry today. Over much of the area,
the last ten days have not had any wetting rains. Tomorrow
(Wednesday), a much drier air mass will surge into the area behind
a cold front. The combination of low relative humidity and breezy
winds could create red flag conditions over much of our Alabama
and Florida zones. Despite earlier concerns about ERC values in
Florida, the latest ERC forecast for today has all zones at least
at 24, and with another day of drying it`s at least conceivable
that any zones could reach the minimum threshold of 26 for red
flag criteria. Therefore, we expanded the Fire Weather Watch to
include all Florida zones. Relative humidity levels rebound
quickly by Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
With minimal rain chances in the forecast, there will be no
hydrological concerns over the few several days. Scattered showers
will return to the forecast this weekend as we return to an
unsettled weather pattern. It will take a significant amount of
rain to cause any concerns on area rivers and that is not
currently anticipated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 76 40 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 74 40 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 72 32 54 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 73 33 54 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 76 38 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 76 42 60 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 75 42 58 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for all zones.
GA...FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for all zones.
AL...FREEZE WATCH from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
all zones.
FREEZE WATCH from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for all zones.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH Wednesday afternoon for all zones.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this
evening for all zones.
GALE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for
all zones.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday
for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
Fl out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Wool/Lamers
SHORT TERM/MARINE...Wool/Camp
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Wool
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
604 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
BKN LK EFFECT BANDING NOTED THIS MORNING IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND
A FUNCTION OF SOME IN CLOUD SHEAR AHD OF APCHG MID LVL SW TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH WI ATTM. HWVR WELL DEFINED AND STG CVRG ZONE
NOTED IN BUOY/SFC OBS W/SOME ORGANIZATION NOTED RECENTLY TO SNOW
BAND WWD OF MUSKEGON/HOLLAND. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE CONTS TO
FOLLOW PRIOR EARLY EVENING TRENDS OF PUSHING BAND WWD INTO NW IN
IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LL THERMAL TROUGH/LAND BREEZE CIRC AND
SO FAR THE CASE SINCE 1 AM AS BAND HAD SHIFTED WEST OF BENTON
HARBOR. THUS W/MORNING ISSUANCE WILL DROP PRIOR HEADLINES ACRS ST
JOE/MARSHALL/PULASKI WHILE LEAVING REMAINDER OF WSW INTACT AS
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS STILL CLEARLY FVRD LTR THIS MORNING. XPC BAND
WILL PEAK IN 10-15Z TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO LESSENING SHEAR
BUT CONVERSELY RAPIDLY BREAKUP EWD AS MID LVL TROUGH PASSES TWD
18Z AS STG AND VRY DRY SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES BAND. AT LEAST ONE
IN/HR SNOW RATES LIKELY ACRS LAPORTE AND SWRN BERRIEN COUNTIES LTR
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 1040MB SFC
RIDGE AND DECOUPLED SFC FLW WILL YIELD A VRY COLD NIGHT W/TEMPS NOT
FAR FM RECORD MINS. DEEP SNOW CVR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
WILL AWAIT RESULTS OF SNOW ACCUMS THAT FALL OUT TDA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ENSEMBLE SPREADS AMONG
MEMBERS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND HOW FAST. USED THE MEAN GFS
ENSEMBLE BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE WEST SOLUTION WITH
SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
INTENSE LAND BREEZE CIRC HOLDING BROKEN BUT INTENSE BAND OF SHSN
WEST OF KSBN TERMINAL AND XPC THAT WILL CONT TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LT MORNING IN TUNE W/LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. REGARDLESS IMPACTS WILL
BE FLEETING W/BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY TWD EARLY AFTN.
DROPPED PRIOR FUEL ALT TEMPO MENTION. OTWS NO CONCERNS AT KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ004-012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
856 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
9AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM BOSTON TO
NEW YORK CITY. UPSLOPE GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
DRIER. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. ALSO
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS EVEN LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE GETTING SOME OF THE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
THAT HEAVY... BUT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPING
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES. EVEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
LATER IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN.
630AM UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND IS
TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATIONS...TO THE
RECREATION FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LEFT SOME POPS IN THE PORTSMOUTH
AREA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THAT REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODEST MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THIS HOUR. RAISED MAXES TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY MIDDAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER WNW FACING TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO
CLEAR. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
FEW MORE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. -10 TO -12C AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE. FURTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ALL IN ALL...CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WITH TEENS MOVING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. IN THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS...SINGLE NUMBERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUING...BRINGING WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REACH THE COASTLINE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE 30S
SOUTH...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE
EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THRU THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS BECOME VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STRONG WNW FLOW. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
625 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND IS
TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATIONS...TO THE
RECREATION FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LEFT SOME POPS IN THE PORTSMOUTH
AREA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PCPN IN THAT
REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODEST MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THIS HOUR. RAISED MAXES TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ALBIET
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY MIDDAY.
PREV DISC...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER WNW FACING TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE
FIRST TO CLEAR. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ALL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A FEW MORE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. -10 TO -12C AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE. FURTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ALL IN ALL...CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WITH TEENS MOVING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. IN THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS...SINGLE NUMBERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUING...BRINGING WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REACH THE COASTLINE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE 30S
SOUTH...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA SAT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE EAST COAST. SUN NIGHT AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL S/WVES WILL MOVE THRU THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALLOWING SCT SHWRS TO DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS BECOME VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STRONG WNW FLOW. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
LONG TERM...SCA CONDS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS WED
NIGHT OTRW NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
733 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.UPDATE...
WEAK BUT NOTICABLE RIDGING HAS TURNED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN THUMB FROM A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND BACK
OVER LAKE HURON. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CURVATURE OF THE
BANDS IS SUCH THAT THEIR TRAJECTORIES NO LONGER TAKE THEM THROUGH
EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY WILL CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY EARLY DUE TO LITTLE CHANCE FOR THESE BANDS TO PUSH
WESTWARD WITH BACKING WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 605 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
//DISCUSSION...
DRY ARCTIC AIR UNDER N-NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID STRATO CU FIELD BACK
INTO SE MI WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000 FT. THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
TURNS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BACK TO THE TAF SITES.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
605 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
DRY ARCTIC AIR UNDER N-NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...WHICH SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD BRING A MORE SOLID STRATO CU FIELD BACK
INTO SE MI WITH CEILING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000 FT. THE FLOW WEAKENS AND
TURNS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT...BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
BACK TO THE TAF SITES.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...MIZ049-MIZ055...UNTIL 11 AM TUESDAY.
LAKE HURON...
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
533 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SOUTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL USHER IS GRADUAL WARMING.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS COVERING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE CLOUDS...WITH THE
RAP DOING AN OK JOB. THE RAP SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z...AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
15-16Z. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE OCCURRING DUE TO
LAKE PROCESSES. WE UPPED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
FOLLOWED THE RAP IN DIMINISHING THEM THROUGH THE MORNING. WE ALSO
MENTION SOME FLURRIES...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
BY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER TWENTIES.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM -10C TO -14C THIS MORNING TO +6C TO +9C
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THERE WILL
BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLING A STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING INVERSION DUE TO THE WAA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WHERE
THE WIND IS ABLE TO GO LIGHT. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
AND STRONG THROUGH THE DAY LIMITING THE MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS
LOWER THAN IF WE HAD BETTER MIXING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-MS/OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM OMAHA TO
MARQUETTE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT ALSO
ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
N/NW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. THE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
WEAK AND DRY S/W TRACKING NW-SE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING
BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OFF AND CONDITIONS BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A FEW LAKE EFFECT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
AROUND HYR THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SW AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. A STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WAA WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LLWS...ALONG
WITH A SHARP INVERSION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FOG.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 16 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
INL 30 17 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 29 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 26 15 40 28 / 0 0 0 10
ASX 32 18 43 31 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
146>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND
THEN STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW PIEDMONT BY NOON...THROUGH THE TRIANGLE
AREA BY AROUND 100 PM AND THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
BY 400 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALREADY WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER EVENT A MERE 6-12 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE RECENT RUC RUNS...HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE TRIAD...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE REGION OF STRONGEST DVPA
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR TRENDS IN SOUTHERN VA
BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TO TO SEE IF THE ADVERTISED BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. HAVE FOCUSED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF THE RAH CWA BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BUT IF A LARGER AND MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE PTYPE COULD CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WARM
GROUND...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH ACTUAL SNOWS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF THE INCH SHOULD RESULT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTING TO 25 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT WITH
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 1270M LOWS IN THE MID 20S LOOK
REASONABLE. -BLAES/CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINTAINING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL NC AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING AT 850MB...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...HOWEVER...AND GUIDANCE
MOSTLY INDICATES MID 50S FOR HIGHS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE HIGH AND 850MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFT OFFSHORE. RH CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OUT WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE BASED ON THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S....POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE WEST IF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS AND
THE PARENT HIGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 15 TO
18Z TODAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...A NARROW BAND OF ANA-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL PRODUCE A
2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH POSSIBLY A
BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY 06Z.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS THE
REGION. THEN... RETURN FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND
MAYBE SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CBL/BSD
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
519 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MAKING GOOD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
015-025 MVFR CIGS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS DO NOT FULLY DECOUPLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE
AROUND SUNSET AND AM EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES 03-06Z THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED OVERNIGHT AND IS RAPIDLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARDS. LEADING WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ONLY A COUNTY
AWAY FROM REACHING WACO. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. RAP AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED
THIS THE BEST THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS SHOWING THE FRONT AT THE
COAST BY 18Z. GIVEN THESE NEW TRENDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE FRONT THOUGH. ANY FASTER OR SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD DRASTICALLY
CHANGE THE HIGHS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(1047MB HIGH PRESSURE AROUND NEBRASKA) HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FROM AROUND A LINE
OF CLEVELAND TO CONROE TO BRENHAM. HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOUGH. IF WINDS
STAY ELEVATED SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN
GENERAL THOUGH LIGHTEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
BORDER. ON THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARDS TAKING THE BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE WITH IT.
THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW SUITE EASTWARDS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHTER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT RETURN FLOW POSSIBLY
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN SECOND NIGHT IS USUALLY COOLER
HAVE WENT A CLOSE COPY OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER ISSUE IS RETURNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY
MORNING. NAM... GFS... AND ECMWF ARE ALL HINTING AT CLOUD COVER
RETURNING FOR SOUTHERN SITES FIRST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE
NORTH. HAVE WARMED GALVESTON A BIT THURSDAY MORNING TO TAKE THIS
INTO ACCOUNT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN REMAINS TRICKY. INSTABILITY IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS LOW. LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY TEXAS APPEARS TO BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE JET BUT MOISTURE HAS YET TO FULLY RETURN.
BY SATURDAY THE MOISTURE HAS STARTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(~1.6" PWATS) BUT THE AREA NOW FALLS UNDER THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH (MORE OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND EAST). ON SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL BE DIVING DOWN TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN WITH IT AND POSSIBLY BEFORE IT. AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS WE WILL FALL IN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THE JET. GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BITING EITHER WAY. 23
MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY NOON. NORTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENTS GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS SHOULD PUSH
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS AND SHIP CHANNEL AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCA THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS AND
THEN ISSUE A GALE WARNING FROM 00Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE
GULF WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE BAYS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE TX. AS THE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 32 54 32 61 / 10 0 0 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 37 57 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 56 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
449 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PICKED UP SPEED OVERNIGHT AND IS RAPIDLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARDS. LEADING WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY ONLY A COUNTY
AWAY FROM REACHING WACO. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN WHAT MODELS HAVE
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISING. RAP AND TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE HANDLED
THIS THE BEST THIS MORNING. THE RAP IS SHOWING THE FRONT AT THE
COAST BY 18Z. GIVEN THESE NEW TRENDS HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE FRONT THOUGH. ANY FASTER OR SLOWER MOVEMENT COULD DRASTICALLY
CHANGE THE HIGHS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(1047MB HIGH PRESSURE AROUND NEBRASKA) HAVE ADDED A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE WESTERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH COOLER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FROM AROUND A LINE
OF CLEVELAND TO CONROE TO BRENHAM. HAVE UPDATED THE FREEZE WATCH
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TOUGH. IF WINDS
STAY ELEVATED SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN
GENERAL THOUGH LIGHTEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE TEXAS/ OKLAHOMA
BORDER. ON THURSDAY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARDS TAKING THE BEST AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE WITH IT.
THEREFORE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL FOLLOW SUITE EASTWARDS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE LIGHTER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT RETURN FLOW POSSIBLY
STARTING THURSDAY MORNING BUT GIVEN SECOND NIGHT IS USUALLY COOLER
HAVE WENT A CLOSE COPY OF WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE OTHER ISSUE IS RETURNING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY
MORNING. NAM... GFS... AND ECMWF ARE ALL HINTING AT CLOUD COVER
RETURNING FOR SOUTHERN SITES FIRST WITH FEW TO SCATTERED IN THE
NORTH. HAVE WARMED GALVESTON A BIT THURSDAY MORNING TO TAKE THIS
INTO ACCOUNT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE MAIN LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE RAIN REMAINS TRICKY. INSTABILITY IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS LOW. LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE TRICKY. INITIALLY ON FRIDAY TEXAS APPEARS TO BE IN A MORE
FAVORABLE REGION OF THE JET BUT MOISTURE HAS YET TO FULLY RETURN.
BY SATURDAY THE MOISTURE HAS STARTED TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
(~1.6" PWATS) BUT THE AREA NOW FALLS UNDER THE CONVERGENT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THOUGH (MORE OFF TOWARDS THE NORTH
AND EAST). ON SUNDAY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE
CROSSING THE CANADIAN BORDER WHICH WILL BE DIVING DOWN TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS THAT IT
WILL BRING SOME RAIN WITH IT AND POSSIBLY BEFORE IT. AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS WE WILL FALL IN THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THE JET. GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS APPROACHING 2.00" OFF THE COAST MONDAY WITH A SHARP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY
BEFORE BITING EITHER WAY. 23
&&
.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NORTH TEXAS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFF THE COAST BY NOON. NORTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN COMBINE TO GENERATE STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS
WITH FREQUENTS GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. THE STRONG NORTH WINDS SHOULD PUSH
WATER OUT OF THE BAYS AND SHIP CHANNEL AND A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.
WILL MAINTAIN AN SCA THROUGH 00Z FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS AND
THEN ISSUE A GALE WARNING FROM 00Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE
GULF WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE BAYS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SE TX. AS THE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC STATES... ONSHORE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 55 32 54 32 61 / 10 0 0 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 62 37 57 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 67 44 56 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZOS...BURLESON...GRIMES...HOUSTON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
TRINITY...WALKER...WASHINGTON.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA
SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1108 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 543 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
QUICKLY DIMINISHING. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.UPDATE....
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
LAKE BAND LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY POP AND WEATHER FORECASTS TO MATCH
RADAR BUT OVERALL TRENDS REMAIN THE SAME. EARLIER UPDATED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING TO REFLECT TOTALS RECEIVED SO FAR BUT WARNING
ITSELF STILL LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN TO LET EXPIRE AT 18Z.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE SOUTH AS READINGS HAVE WARMED
QUICKLY THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
BKN LK EFFECT BANDING NOTED THIS MORNING IN SAT/RADAR IMAGERY AND
A FUNCTION OF SOME IN CLOUD SHEAR AHD OF APCHG MID LVL SW TROUGH
DROPPING THROUGH WI ATTM. HWVR WELL DEFINED AND STG CVRG ZONE
NOTED IN BUOY/SFC OBS W/SOME ORGANIZATION NOTED RECENTLY TO SNOW
BAND WWD OF MUSKEGON/HOLLAND. NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE CONTS TO
FOLLOW PRIOR EARLY EVENING TRENDS OF PUSHING BAND WWD INTO NW IN
IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING LL THERMAL TROUGH/LAND BREEZE CIRC AND
SO FAR THE CASE SINCE 1 AM AS BAND HAD SHIFTED WEST OF BENTON
HARBOR. THUS W/MORNING ISSUANCE WILL DROP PRIOR HEADLINES ACRS ST
JOE/MARSHALL/PULASKI WHILE LEAVING REMAINDER OF WSW INTACT AS
HEAVY SNOW THREAT IS STILL CLEARLY FVRD LTR THIS MORNING. XPC BAND
WILL PEAK IN 10-15Z TIME FRAME CORRESPONDING TO LESSENING SHEAR
BUT CONVERSELY RAPIDLY BREAKUP EWD AS MID LVL TROUGH PASSES TWD
18Z AS STG AND VRY DRY SUBSIDENCE OVERTAKES BAND. AT LEAST ONE
IN/HR SNOW RATES LIKELY ACRS LAPORTE AND SWRN BERRIEN COUNTIES LTR
THIS MORNING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR ALL AREAS TONIGHT. CLOSE PROXIMITY OF 1040MB SFC
RIDGE AND DECOUPLED SFC FLW WILL YIELD A VRY COLD NIGHT W/TEMPS NOT
FAR FM RECORD MINS. DEEP SNOW CVR AREAS COULD SEE SINGLE DIGITS BUT
WILL AWAIT RESULTS OF SNOW ACCUMS THAT FALL OUT TDA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE
TROF DIGS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. FOR THIS PACKAGE...THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE INDICATING BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ENSEMBLE SPREADS AMONG
MEMBERS. MOST OF THE UNCERTAINTY HAS TO DO WITH HOW MUCH ENERGY
EJECTS FROM THE WESTERN TROF AND HOW FAST. USED THE MEAN GFS
ENSEMBLE BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN. THE SFC LOW TRACKS
ARE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF FAVORS A MORE WEST SOLUTION WITH
SFC DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...KEPT A CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
INTENSE LAND BREEZE CIRC HOLDING BROKEN BUT INTENSE BAND OF SHSN
WEST OF KSBN TERMINAL AND XPC THAT WILL CONT TO BE THE CASE UNTIL
LT MORNING IN TUNE W/LATEST HRRR SOLUTION. REGARDLESS IMPACTS WILL
BE FLEETING W/BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY TWD EARLY AFTN.
DROPPED PRIOR FUEL ALT TEMPO MENTION. OTWS NO CONCERNS AT KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR INZ004-012.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR INZ003.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OUT PACING THE FORECAST TEMPS BY
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO THIS MORNING. 11AM TEMPS WERE WITHIN
4 DEGREES OF MAX TEMPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS. FORECAST SOUNDING
OFF THE RAP SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MIXING OUT TO AROUND 925 MB THIS
AFTERNOON YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 30. GIVEN THE RATE THE
TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING THIS MORNING AND MIXING BUMPED MAXES UP
MOST AREAS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
ANALYSIS AT 2 AM SHOWS STRONG...COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
PLAINS BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS FALL SEASON TO THE REGION
WITH CLEAR SKIES. AREA TEMPERATURES AT 2 AM ARE MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS WITH SOME LOWER 20S SOUTH SECTIONS. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE A WARM UP BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY. LEAD PACIFIC
ENERGY ARRIVING NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE WEST COAST SUPPORTS ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
TODAY...SUNNY BUT SEASONABLY QUITE COLD WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 MPH. BL MIXING HEIGHTS SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR MEAN GUIDANCE
IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH SECTIONS.
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS INTO EARLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS LOWS AGAIN VERY
COLD AND SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED LOW LYING
LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO DOMINATE THE EXTENDED...FEATURING
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEDNESDAY...THE LARGE HIGH WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID SOUTH ALLOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
BROAD FLAT RIDGE OVERHEAD AND A PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
ALLOW ONLY SHALLOW MIXING AND LEAD TO AN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TO HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH AFTER
THE VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. LOWS WED NIGHT ARE KEPT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRENDING MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER IN THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS. THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS NOW SHOWN
DELAYED TO FRIDAY MORNING WITH QPF LIMITED TO ONLY THE GFS. WITH
MODEST UPPER FORCING PRIMARILY PREFRONTAL...WILL KEEP VERY LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN GOING OVER THE AREA FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MODERATE...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50
WHILE CLOUD COVER AND MIXING HOLDS MINS IN THE 30S.
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A SW FLOW OUT AHEAD AND EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS DIFFER IN BOTH THE
HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES AND THEN THE AMOUNT OF PHASING OF THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES THAT WILL AFFECT HOW THE MAIN
SURFACE WAVE LIFTS THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW GULF
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTHWARD WITH ASSOCIATED WARM...MOIST ADVECTION
LEADING TO ROUNDS OF RAIN WITH ANY DISTURBANCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 50S
BOTH DAYS WHILE HIGHER DEWPOINTS LIMIT LOWS TO THE 40S BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MONDAY...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS DEPICTING A MORE PHASED UPPER WAVE AND ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW ON BOARD WITH A
MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION THAN THE RADICALLY DIFFERING LOOK OF THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS. BOTH SUGGEST A RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW EVENT FOR THE
LOCAL AREA FOR MONDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TRACKING MAINLY
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST NE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY NOON WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KTS AROUND 15Z
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DLF
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1144 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE REGION MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
1145AM UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SLOWLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND IT A LOW LEVEL CLOUD LAYER INFLUENCED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE
TERRAIN IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN ITS WAKE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOKS PROMISING FOR CLEARING SKIES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL BEEN DROPPING THIS
MORNING FOR MANY AREAS... SO CONFIDENCE IN REACHING FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER... WITH THE SUN COMING OUT
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING THE UPPER 30S. HAVE
UPDATED FORECAST SKY COVER USING CMC REGIONAL MODEL AS THIS MODEL
HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE TWO CLOUD DECKS.
9AM UPDATE...
BAND OF SNOW HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM BOSTON TO
NEW YORK CITY. UPSLOPE GENERATED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING
DRIER. HAVE ADJUSTED POP FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. ALSO
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS EVEN LOWER
ELEVATIONS ARE GETTING SOME OF THE SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
THAT HEAVY... BUT SOME ISOLATED SPOTS WITH PERSISTENT UPSLOPING
COULD SEE A FEW INCHES. EVEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN
LATER IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN.
630AM UPDATE...
MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER
AIR IS ALREADY FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND IS
TRIGGERING SNOW SHOWERS. HAVE INCLUDED THIS PRECIPITATION...WHICH
IS MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000 FEET ELEVATIONS...TO THE
RECREATION FORECAST. HAVE ALSO LEFT SOME POPS IN THE PORTSMOUTH
AREA AS THE LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN THAT REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MODEST MODIFICATIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS THIS HOUR. RAISED MAXES TODAY A FEW DEGREES...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF BY MIDDAY.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER WNW FACING TERRAIN. DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO
CLEAR. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE TOUGH TO BREAK ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A
FEW MORE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. -10 TO -12C AT 850 MB WILL KEEP
READINGS ONLY IN THE 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE. FURTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR READINGS IN THE 20S...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER...ALL IN ALL...CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
WITH TEENS MOVING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE. IN THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS...SINGLE NUMBERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD. IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COOLER WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE CONTINUING...BRINGING WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN.
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL SPILL OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY REACH THE COASTLINE.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE 30S
SOUTH...BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. A WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE
EAST COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THRU THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALLOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD LATE IN
THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
WHITEFIELD AND LEBANON WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW. DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST AREAS BECOME VFR IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SEAS
WILL BE CHOPPY WITH STRONG WNW FLOW. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
TODAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT
LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE NO FLAGS.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
SHORT TERM... CANNON
LONG TERM... MARINE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM AZ/UT TO SASK AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS RESULTING IN NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...WINDS WERE BACKING WRLY OVER UPPER MI AS THE LARGE HIGH PRES
SETTLES THROUGH ERN KS. LES INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA
WAS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS WINDS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND VERY DRY
AIR WITH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING LES WILL END BY LATE THIS EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME OFFSHORE. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
TEENS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID HIGH CLOUDS
SUPPORTED BY WAA WITH 300K-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING ACROSS
UPPER MI AND INCREASING SW WINDS WILL LIMIT COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WED...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE HIGH
SINKING INTO THE SRN CONUS AND LOW PRES MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY.
HOWVER...STRONG 925-850 MB WAA WILL INCREASE STABILITY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SFC WIND GUSTS. NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WINDS
COULD STILL GUST INTO THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. THE
STABILITY AND INCREASING STRONG/LOW INVERSION HEIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S EVEN AS 925/850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO
THE 8C-10C RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT EAST
AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. A LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER JAMES BAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...IT WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE (DRY AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB)
AND FORCING STILL LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MUCH OF THURSDAY. BUT AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT (AND PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE)...THINK THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXPANSION OF THE
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT
WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF THE
SHOWERS...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TRACK BEING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN OR LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS FOR THAT AREA. THERE AREA ALSO DIFFERENCES ON THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR...SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FOR THE KEWEENAW ON FRIDAY...BUT FEEL HAVING CHANCE POPS
IS REASONABLE. HAVE KEPT P-TYPE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THAT
PERIOD...FIRST DUE TO THE WARM LAYER AROUND 850MB WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THEN DUE TO QUESTIONS ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND ICE
PRESENT IN THE CLOUDS FOR THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 40 DURING THAT PERIOD AND LOWS AROUND 30.
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH FROM ALASKA WILL AMPLIFY THE POLAR JET OVER THE
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF RAIN
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY UNDER THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY.
THEN...AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION
WILL SEE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS FAR
OUT...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE AT THIS POINT FOR MEASURABLE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN. COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW FOR TUESDAY
(AROUND -15C AT 850MB) WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST WIND BELTS AND DID TREND POPS UP SOME FOR THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
AS THE AIR MASS MODERATES WITH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVING
IN ALONG WITH BACKING WINDS...CLEARING OVER WRN UPPER MI WILL MOVE
INTO SAW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAT PERIOD. LLWS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...
RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WINDS ABOVE INVERSION AT IWD AND SAW.
GUSTY WRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT CMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM LATE WED MORNING THROUGH WED EVENING
OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE
NORTH IN ONTARIO. WINDS NEAR GALE STRENGTH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 30 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.AVIATION...
//DISCUSSION...
AIRMASS REPLACEMENT PROCESS CONTINUES TODAY WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FORM WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM A 330 DEGREE
DIRECTION. THIS WILL CAUSE MOST/ALL TAF SITES TO START SEEING
ENTRY LEVEL MVFR CIGS. LAPSE RATES ALLOW A COMBINATION OF
CONVECTIVE CU AND ADVECTION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN STRATO CU TO LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE STATE. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 00Z
THIS EVENING, BUT MOST CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE 3000 FT. THIS
IS SUPPORTED FROM KAPX AND KDTX 12Z SOUNDINGS.
//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS BELOW 5000 FT TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 733 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
UPDATE...
WEAK BUT NOTICABLE RIDGING HAS TURNED SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN THUMB FROM A NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TO A NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFFSHORE AND BACK
OVER LAKE HURON. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CURVATURE OF THE
BANDS IS SUCH THAT THEIR TRAJECTORIES NO LONGER TAKE THEM THROUGH
EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY WILL CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY EARLY DUE TO LITTLE CHANCE FOR THESE BANDS TO PUSH
WESTWARD WITH BACKING WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 400 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY ARE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SETTING UP OVER LAKE HURON AND IMPACTING THE EASTERN
THUMB...SPECIFICALLY EASTERN SANILAC AND HURON COUNTIES. CURRENT
RADAR OBSERVATIONS OUT OF EXETER SHOW A MULTIPLE BAND STRUCTURE OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE KDTX RADAR SHOWS THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
WITH TOPS ALL THE WAY UP TO 16K FEET. THE WESTERN-MOST BAND HAS
ALREADY DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW OVER HARBOR BEACH. THE RUC MODEL HAS
THESE BANDS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A
CONTINUED FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS LAKE HURON. WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND
20 TO 1 DURING THIS EVENT...PILING UP 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HURON AND SANILAC COUNTIES
APPEARS LIKELY. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
THESE COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SUBTLE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WINDS WESTERLY LATE THIS MORNING...TURNING WINDS WESTERLY
AND PUSHING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING THEM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA SKIES HAVE BECOME FOR THE MOST PART
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD AIR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A COLD AIRMASS
IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDDLE 30S
TODAY. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PUSH EAST OF THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WITH MID 20S HANGING ON IN THE DETROIT METRO AREA.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSIENT
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
STABLE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE STATE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN SOLIDLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN EDGE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL EMERGE DURING THE
MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY BY NOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
FORECASTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 MPH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. MODEL 950MB THETA E PLAN VIEWS AND
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A BRICK WALL IN MODERATING
POTENTIAL. THE GRIDS MAY BE A TAD COOL BUT HIGHS OF 38-41 DEGREES
SEEMS REASONABLE.
THURSDAY SHOWS MORE OF THE SAME FROM A MSLP PERSPECTIVE WITH
SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN RESIDING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE. SOME HIGHER HEAT CONTENT IS MODELED TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM. MULTIPLE MODEL CORES
ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS SHOWN TO LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY
WHICH MAY PROVIDE A BOOST IN THE DIURNAL HEATING RESPONSE AS MIXING
FROM THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS IS AGAINST WHAT MAY BE AT FIRST GLANCE A LOWERED
MIXING HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...SUSPECT A GOOD AFTERNOON
BOOST IN TEMPERATURES IS THE CALL DESPITE A LACK OF NEAR SURFACE
WARM AIR ADVECTION. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S...A SOLID
5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPINGE ON AN AREA THAT WILL
ALREADY BE INFLUENCED BY FLOW THAT IS HIGHLY VEERED. FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD AROUND 12Z FRIDAY...BUT
THAT IS THE BULK THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOING FOR IT. LACK OF ANY
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH A DRY AIRMASS LIMITS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. 12.00Z ECMWF ARRIVED DEFINING THIS
CAMP...BUT IT NEEDS TO BE NOTED THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE STICKING POINT IS
THE DEGREE OF PHASING OR ENERGY TRANSFER OUT OF TEXAS OR THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OUTGOING FORECAST IS IN THE DRY END OF THE SPECTRUM.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO AN EXTREME LEVEL FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA GOING FOR A WILD RIDE IN 3 TO
4 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT ENDS UP VERIFYING LOCALLY...INTER-INTRA
MODEL EVOLUTION WILL BE FUN TO WATCH.
MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED BELOW GALE FORCE THE PAST FEW HOURS
OUT OVER LAKE HURON. WIND MAGNITUDES WILL EASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED VALUES THEN HOLDING IN THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE DECISION WAS
MADE TO CANCEL THE GALE WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT A FEW HOURS
EARLY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE. HAVE ISSUED A
GALE WATCH FOR SAGINAW BAY ALONG WITH THE OPEN WATERS OF CENTRAL
LAKE HURON.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
HURON...UNTIL 10 PM TUESDAY.
GALE WATCH...LHZ362-LHZ363-LHZ421-LHZ422...FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4
AM THURSDAY.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....MM
UPDATE.......KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....CB
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SE SOUTH DAKOTA/NE NEBRASKA
BORDER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
TODAY...THEN SOUTHWEST. THE TRANSITION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL USHER IS GRADUAL WARMING.
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLOUDS COVERING PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WERE OCCURRING IN SPOTS UNDER THESE CEILINGS.
THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THESE CLOUDS...WITH THE
RAP DOING AN OK JOB. THE RAP SHOWS MOST OF THE CLOUDS DIMINISHING
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 12Z...AND OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY
15-16Z. THE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WERE OCCURRING DUE TO
LAKE PROCESSES. WE UPPED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
FOLLOWED THE RAP IN DIMINISHING THEM THROUGH THE MORNING. WE ALSO
MENTION SOME FLURRIES...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE.
BY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE GONE...WITH JUST SOME
HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THROUGH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER TWENTIES.
IT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA. 850MB TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM -10C TO -14C THIS MORNING TO +6C TO +9C
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS THERE WILL
BE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BATTLING A STRENGTHENING AND
LOWERING INVERSION DUE TO THE WAA. TEMPS WILL DROP QUICKLY WHERE
THE WIND IS ABLE TO GO LIGHT. WE DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
TONIGHT.
IT WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER
THIRTIES TO LOWER FORTIES. THE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
AND STRONG THROUGH THE DAY LIMITING THE MIXING AND KEEPING TEMPS
LOWER THAN IF WE HAD BETTER MIXING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SWD FROM CANADA ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
PRODUCING CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE
TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE WAVE
LIFTS TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
LIKELY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY USHER IN ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE NW EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW. A STRONG SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-MS/OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION MONDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FROM OMAHA TO
MARQUETTE...AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND FREE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT ALSO
ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO BE POSITIONED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRONG
N/NW WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S. THE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
BLAST OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM N TO S
ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z. LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
15Z AS LOW LEVEL MIXING OCCURS AND GUSTY SW SFC WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 16 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
INL 30 17 42 27 / 0 0 0 10
BRD 29 18 42 28 / 0 0 0 10
HYR 26 15 40 28 / 10 0 0 10
ASX 32 18 43 31 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
322 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN
0.05 AND 0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND
SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN OR SNOW. WET
BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE VA BORDER
COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. AS
COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT
THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A MOSTLY WET SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST LIKELY TO SEE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER AND IN THE TRIAD
REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. THE
PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-4 HOURS LONG WITH MUCH
OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE TO ACTUAL SNOW
LIQUID QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING AND A
WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER
AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN
SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING ALOFT COULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COATING OF WET SNOW BEFORE THE
ACCUMULATED SNOW MELTS ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS BUT A WARM
GROUND SHOULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. STRONG CAA SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS
IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUESDAY...
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST AS A STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SETTLES OVER
GA/SC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE AND LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE. COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S... WITH
TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS FALLING TO AROUND 20. -BLAES
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
THU AND THU NIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC SURFACE
RIDGE...ONE THAT PEAKED AT 1048 MB OVER KS AND NE EARLIER TODAY...
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AND THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER
DRYNESS...INCLUDING AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. DRY ADIABATIC...BUT
SHALLOW MIXING TO ABOUT 2000 FEET AMIDST THE ARCTIC RIDGING...
SUPPORTS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL
BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S GIVEN PROJECTED LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1335 METERS.
FRI THROUGH TUE: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SHORTWAVE/SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS REMAIN...AND AS SUCH...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ONLY AVERAGE.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS STILL FOR A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE...ALBEIT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
MODIFIED SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WILL SUPPORT A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN
RIDGING WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS PROCESS
MAY THEN PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY SAT-SUN...HOWEVER.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN INCREASINGLY STRONG AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND ALONG
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MON-TUE. MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TO
LOWER 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
321 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.05 AND
0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND
ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SNOW. WET BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A
MOSTLY WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER
AND IN THE TRIAD REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT. THE PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-3
HOURS LONG WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE
TO ACTUAL SNOW LIQUID GFS ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING AND A WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH
IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FORCING ALOFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COASTING OF WET
SNOW BEFORE MELTING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS. STRONG CAA
SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...
THU AND THU NIGHT: THE CENTER OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC SURFACE
RIDGE...ONE THAT PEAKED AT 1048 MB OVER KS AND NE EARLIER TODAY...
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THU AND THU NIGHT. DEEP LAYER
DRYNESS...INCLUDING AT THE SURFACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS...WILL FAVOR CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. DRY ADIABATIC...BUT
SHALLOW MIXING TO ABOUT 2000 FEET AMIDST THE ARCTIC RIDGING...
SUPPORTS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AT THIS TIME THAT IT WILL
BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY HINDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ONCE AGAIN...INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S GIVEN PROJECTED LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AROUND 1335 METERS.
FRI THROUGH TUE: MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
SHORTWAVE/SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES AND DETAILS REMAIN...AND AS SUCH...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ONLY AVERAGE.
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION IS STILL FOR A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE...ALBEIT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
FEATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
MODIFIED SURFACE RIDGE...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WILL SUPPORT A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN
RIDGING WILL THEN STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US IN RESPONSE TO
UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ROCKIES...AND THIS PROCESS
MAY THEN PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. WILL RETAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
TO MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY SAT-SUN...HOWEVER.
THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN INCREASINGLY STRONG AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AND ALONG
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MON-TUE. MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...TO
LOWER 70S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS REGION AT 19Z. SURFACE COLD ADVECTION FINALLY
BEGINNING TO KICK IN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER OUTSIDE OF ANY COOLING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES EARLIER TODAY CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...IT MADE IT TO 61 IN WINSTON-SALEM...
WHICH IS NOT A TYPICAL OR FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR AN IMPENDING WINTER
EVENT. HOWEVER...LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ALOFT BREAKING OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND EXPANDING
INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AND TRIAD AREA. DUAL POL RADAR ANALYSIS
FROM KRAX SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION AT 4-8KFT APPEARS TO BE ALL SNOW.
JUST NOW GETTING SOME REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE WITH
LIGHT RAIN IN ROXBORO AND REIDSVILLE WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY VALUES NOW PEAKING AT
AROUND 25DBZ.
RECENT RAP AND HRRR RUNS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
CAM MODELS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHT RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OR AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT AND SHIFT
SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE RAP/NAM/GFS ARE
VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THAT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO FALL IN A CORRIDOR BETWEEN RALEIGH/FAYETTEVILLE WEST
TO GREENSBORO/ALBEMARLE WHERE AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0.05 AND
0.10 INCHES WITH A SWEET SPOT POTENTIALLY NEAR BURLINGTON AND
ASHEBORO. WITH COOLING ALOFT AND SATURATION EXTENDING INTO THE ICE
NUCLEATION REGION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ALOFT WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS DETERMINING WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO SNOW. WET BULB TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 30S
IN THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH COLD/DRY ADVECTION PUSHING SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO A
MOSTLY WET SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEFORE ENDING. LOCATIONS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WILL BE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER
AND IN THE TRIAD REGION WHERE COLDER AND DRIER SURFACE CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT. THE PRECIPITATION DURATION WILL TYPICALLY LAST 2-3
HOURS LONG WITH MUCH OF IT FALLING AS JUST RAIN. THIS SHOULD CONFINE
TO ACTUAL SNOW LIQUID GFS ON THE ORDER OF 0.05 OR LESS. THESE
AMOUNTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING AND A WARM GROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHOULD RESULT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
NOTE THOUGH THAT A HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT BURST OF SNOW WHICH
IS POSSIBLE IN A PATTERN SUCH AS THIS WITH STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND
FORCING ALOFT COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE A QUICK COASTING OF WET
SNOW BEFORE MELTING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN 02-05Z WITH CLEARING SKIES QUICKLY ARRIVING AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND WETNESS ALONG WITH DRYING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME POSSIBLY ICY SPOTS. STRONG CAA
SHOULD SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 24-29 DEGREE RANGE OVERNIGHT. -BLAES
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINTAINING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL NC AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING AT 850MB...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...HOWEVER...AND GUIDANCE
MOSTLY INDICATES MID 50S FOR HIGHS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE HIGH AND 850MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFT OFFSHORE. RH CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OUT WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE BASED ON THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S....POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE WEST IF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS AND
THE PARENT HIGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
145 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 AM TUESDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ARCTIC FRONT NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER AND
THEN STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NC. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW PIEDMONT BY NOON...THROUGH THE TRIANGLE
AREA BY AROUND 100 PM AND THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
BY 400 PM. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALREADY WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER EVENT A MERE 6-12 HOURS IN THE FUTURE. COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA BUT LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THE
SURFACE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 30S UNTIL AFTER NIGHTFALL OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE RECENT RUC RUNS...HRRR RUNS AS WELL AS MANY OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION CAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE TRIAD...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
AND THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE REGION OF STRONGEST DVPA
EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL BE WATCHING RADAR TRENDS IN SOUTHERN VA
BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TO TO SEE IF THE ADVERTISED BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING. HAVE FOCUSED POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF THE RAH CWA BUT HAVE KEPT RAIN THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS BUT IF A LARGER AND MORE
STEADY AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...THE PTYPE COULD CHANGE TO
MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. A WARM
GROUND...ABOVE FREEZING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND QPF AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED
WITH ACTUAL SNOWS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF THE INCH SHOULD RESULT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND GUSTING TO 25 MPH. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
MANY LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BEFORE FALLING
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG CAA OVERNIGHT WITH
THICKNESSES BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 1270M LOWS IN THE MID 20S LOOK
REASONABLE. -BLAES/CBL
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...
DEEP COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PUSH EAST AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. H5 ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH A WEAKENING ~1040 MB
CP HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA WILL SUPPORT VERY COLD...MID JANUARY
LIKE TEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE FULL COMPLIMENTS OF SUNSHINE...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDS 40S...EXACERBATED
BY LINGERING NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
MPH(STRONGEST EAST) MAINLY BEFORE NOON...SUPPORTIVE OF WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT
THE LOWER TERCIL OF TEMPERATURES THAT TYPICALLY CORRESPONDS TO
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES OF AROUND 1310 METERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 20S... WITH TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 20.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...
THURSDAY.THURSDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US THURSDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAINTAINING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL NC AS RETURN FLOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT AND WARMING AT 850MB...TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON
THURSDAY. MIXING WILL REMAIN SHALLOW...HOWEVER...AND GUIDANCE
MOSTLY INDICATES MID 50S FOR HIGHS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
20S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
BY FRIDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST
US AS A SURFACE HIGH AND 850MB ANTICYCLONE SHIFT OFFSHORE. RH CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTURE RETURNING RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OUT WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBTLE DISTURBANCES IN THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF PRECIP...THOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHEN THE FAVORED PERIOD FOR
PRECIP WOULD BE BASED ON THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FORCING. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SHOWERS...IT APPEARS THE WEEKEND WILL BE CLOUDY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S....POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE WEST IF ANY
WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING DEVELOPS AS THE THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS AND
THE PARENT HIGH REPOSITIONS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND.
BEYOND SUNDAY...
WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MASS FIELDS OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE
DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND A SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...
24-HR TAF PERIOD:
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL NC EARLIER TODAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERATING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OCCUR WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
LITTLE STEADIER AND HEAVIER RESULTING IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW STRATUS AT AROUND 2KFT AND RAIN...WITH POTENTIALLY SOME SNOW
MIXED IN. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM
JUST WEST OF BOTH KRDU AND KFAY WESTWARD TO THE TRIAD TAF SITES
INCLUDING KINT AND KGSO. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 04Z AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND A FAIRLY
STEADY NORTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AT 8-10KTS.
LOOKING AHEAD:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE
SURFACE HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSPORTS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AREAS OR PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
-BLAES
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND
RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH.
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13:
RDU: 39 (1911)
GSO: 35 (1907)
FAY: 43 (1976)
RECORD LOW 11/14:
RDU: 20 (1977)
GSO: 19 (1986)
FAY: 24 (1932)
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...BLAES/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...BLAES
CLIMATE...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT...MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH FRONTS. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY WILL
HELP MIX DOWN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT BEFORE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
COMPLETELY ERODES THE WARM LAYER BY 00Z THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S NORTH CENTRAL INTO
EAST CENTRAL...TO AROUND 50 DEGREES SOUTH CENTRAL...AND LOWER 50S
SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. THE NAM/RAP13 925MB RH FIELDS HAVE NOT
BEEN INITIALIZING WELL AT ALL TODAY...AS THEY HAVE BEEN INDICATING
A HIGH AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL RH THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WE HAVE A CLEAR
SKY...THUS CANNOT USE THIS DATA FOR TONIGHT. THE HRRR REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A SWATH OF LESS THAN 500FT CEILINGS
NEAR/OVER THE SNOWCOVER IN SOUTH DAKOTA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY BY AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE
RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENSIVE AREAL EXTENT SEEMS SUSPECT AT THIS
TIME. WILL BRIEF THE INCOMING EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR THIS. IF
IT DOES MATERIALIZE...THEN BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN AND ALL AREAS
SOUTH WOULD BE AFFECTED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE
PASSAGE OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL WAVE PUSHING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITHIN A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH
OUR LOCAL AREA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN
THE PERCENT AND COVERAGE OF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. BUFFER SOUNDINGS
INDICATE WE WILL EITHER SEE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE CAA ADVERTISED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WE DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
DAKOTAS. FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL AS A VERY BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA. STRONG EMBEDDED
ENERGY PUSHING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST WILL
AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH THEN DEVELOPING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SNOW WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOK TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NORTH
DAKOTA...SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOWFALL OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE WE COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 3
INCHES...BUT AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS LOOKS TO FALL BELOW THAT MARK.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION RESULTING IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
OVER THE NEXT 24HRS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA
AND ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER
WILL PERSIST WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SCT CLOUDS LESS THAN 1KFT
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...NOTHING
SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR
BKN/OVC CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1240 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. THE
VERY COLD TROUGH LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY RIDGING
ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COMBINES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1226 PM EST TUESDAY...
TRIMMED BACK POPS AND SNOW IN THE WEST AS HRRR AND WRFARW HAD
INDICATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SECOND AREA OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SOUTHSIDE DID MANAGE TO PUSH 60 DEGREES WITH MORNING RISE OF
TEMPERATURES...BUT TEMPERATURES FALLING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MADE ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES...POPS AND
WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN TONIGHT.
AS OF 1010 AM EST TUESDAY...
AN ACRTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TONIGHT. MOST OF
PRECIPITATION IS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN
ITS WAKE. THIS MORNING RNK WRFARW CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TWO MAIN
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ONE IN THE THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SECOND IN THE EAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TEMPERATURES...POPS
AND WEATHER FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS OF 417 AM EST TUESDAY...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST. RESISSUED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADDED SOME WORDING FOR WINDS GUSTING TO 40
MPH ACROSS WESTERN GREENBRIER AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES
AROUND 12Z/7A THERE FIRST. CURRENT TEMPS HAVE REALLY ACCELERATED
AHEAD OF THIS IMPRESSIVE FRONT WITH LWB/BLF NOT TOO FAR FROM 50F
ATTM. TEMPS WILL FALL A GOOD 20F THERE OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH RH IS VERY DRY...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THE
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. ALTHOUGH GROUND IS VERY WARM...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CONCERN OF A FLASH FREEZE AND A THIN LAYER OF ICE FORMING
WITH SUCH A FAST TEMPERATURE DROP...AND THEN SNOW ON TOP OF IT.
DOWNSLOPING SHOULD REALLY DRY OUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD...HOWEVER THIS EFFECT IS SOMETIMES MITIGATED ACROSS THE
JFZ/MKJ/BLF CORRIDOR. THUS...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ENOUGH
SNOW SURVIVES SUCH THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE EXTREME SW
RECEIVE A QUICK INCH...ESPECIALLY IN TAZEWELL COUNTY.
NOT TO BE OUTDONE...GOOD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AN AREA OF
SATURATED NEGATIVE EPV LINES UP JUST SE OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE DARTS JUST ALONG THE
VA/NC BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TODAY IF PART OF THIS PRECIP
SHIELD CATCHES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FAIR
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS DEFORMATION ZONE ROUGHLY FROM FVX/LYH
THROUGH DAN/SIF. IF THIS AREA OF PRECIP EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH...INTO THE LYH/FVX AREA...THERE WILL BE MORE COLDER AIR AND
POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW THAT COULD PUT A LIGHT
COATING ON THE GRASSY SURFACES. H85 TEMPS CRASH QUICK ENOUGH EVEN
ALONG THE SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT SUCH THAT PRECIP MAY VERY WELL END AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON THAT FAR SOUTH.
HUGE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE NEARLY 1040MB ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP
MOST OF THE NIGHT AT THE USUAL CULPRITS...POSSIBLY NEAR 45 MPH AT
TNB/GEV WITH CRASHING INVERSION EARLY EVENING. EVEN ROA MAY GUST
TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND CHILLS MAY VERY WELL BRIEFLY DIP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 224 AM EST TUESDAY...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE AREA COLD WITH TEMPERATURES 15F-20F BELOW
NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY...THIS RIDGE BEGINS TO
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTING IN ON
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN AROUND 10F BELOW
NORMAL.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THEN WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE +5F TO +15F RANGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...UPPER TEENS
IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EST MONDAY...
WILL START FRIDAY OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH ATLANTIC
MOISTURE RETURNING AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP BY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
RETURNING 40+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS TO OUR AREA AFTER STARTING THE
MORNING OFF WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND THE LOW 2O...AND
THEREFORE DELAYED ONSET BETTER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AFTER DARK.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY...
TRIGGERING PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
AGAINST THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS RESULTING IN AN
EASTERLY WIND OFF THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT IS AT
THIS POINT THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST MODELS DEVELOP DIFFERENT
IDEAS AS TO THE WEATHER PATTERN...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
DECREASES.
BY SUNDAY...THE 11/12Z GFS FORECAST MODEL BECOMES ABOUT 24 HOURS
FASTER WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND AN ASSOCIATED DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THIS WOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE 11/12Z ECMWF MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD BE
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE WOULD
KEEP US IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORKWEEK. MODELS DO AGREE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR
WINTER WEATHER...SO FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS THEY TRY TO RESOLVE THE COMPLEX
WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS IMPACTS MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
CONDITION IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN AS MOISTURE MOVES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 WITH GUSTS 15-30KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN SOME THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS AND VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID
PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN -SHRA/-SHSN POTENTIAL. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TRANSITIONS TO A WESTERN TROF WHICH WILL ESTABLISH A PROGRESSIVE
SWLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW PROMISES TO BRING ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND -SHRA
TO THE AREA SAT AND BEYOND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN
-SHRA/BR. WILL NEED TO WATCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER THREAT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY MON.
&&
.CLIMATE...
COLDEST HIGHS FOR NOVEMBER 13TH:
ROANOKE: 38 IN 1976
BLUEFIELD: 28 IN 1976
DANVILLE: 41 IN 1968
LYNCHBURG: 36 IN 1911
BLACKSBURG: 34 1968.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WVZ043-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/KM
NEAR TERM...KK/KM
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...NF
AVIATION...KK/KM
CLIMATE...PH
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A 1046MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND FLURRIES HAVE RETREATED
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA...AND THE ONLY CLOUD
COVER LEFT IS AN AREA OF THIN MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOOKING
UPSTREAM...PLENTY OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND 12Z RAOBS SHOWS A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE COLUMN. SO AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...TEMPS AND WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEST WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AS
THIS OCCURS...AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT. DESPITE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STAYING RATHER THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...TEMPS
SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH DUE TO THIS SOUTHWEST BREEZE. UPSTREAM TEMPS
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FELL INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SO WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THAT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO WHILE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AND WARM ADVECTING FROM
THE WEST. A STRONG INVERSION WILL DEVELOP...WHICH WILL PREVENT THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...TEMPS
WILL NOT REACH THEIR POTENTIAL FROM MIXING...AND REMAIN IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SHOULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 MPH THOUGH...LOCALLY STRONGER ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE
DOOR PENINSULA WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. WINDS COULD
REACH UP TO 35-40 MPH THERE...WHICH BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES
INTO THE PICTURE. HAVE HAD A FEW POTENTIAL GALES WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALREADY THIS FALL AND THEY SEEMED TO UNDER PERFORM WHAT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF THAT OCCURRED
AGAIN...BUT THE NAM/GFS/SREF INDICATE MINOR MIXING UP TO 950MB WHICH
WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER COORDINATION...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AND MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES OVER THE
MIDDLE BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE DOOR PENINSULA.
LATER SHIFTS CAN TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AND UPGRADE IF NECESSARY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
FLOW FIRST BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO JUST SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED THE IDEA OF A BIG SNOWSTORM EARLY NEXT
WEEK THAT IT/S 12Z RUN YESTERDAY SUGGESTED. IT IS NOW MORE LIKE THE GFS
IN BRING A WEAKER SURFACE LOW FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING AND AMOUNTS
THOUGH PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONLY SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD. WSW LLWS
WILL RAMP UP OVERNIGHT...AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE LATER IN
STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...SO HAVE DELAYED THE MENTION OF
WIND SHEAR. DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE TOMORROW...CONTINUED
THE LLWS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC