Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/11/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
632 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY...THEN
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SQUALLS. MUCH
COLDER AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF REAR-WARD
SUBSIDENCE AND STRENGTHENING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN
CLOUD BREAKS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE LOW-LEVELS.
A FEW POINTS TOWARDS THE FORECAST...SPC MESOANALYIS SHOWS STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE. RAP H925-85 FLOW IS
MODELED 25-35 KTS PRESENTLY...WITH 35-45 KTS UPSTREAM ACROSS
NY/PA. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS CONCUR. WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD WITH VALUES AROUND THE MID- 50S AIDING TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WARMER FOR THE SHORES.
CONSIDERING SUCH POINTS...THE EVENING LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY...MORE
SO ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE AND ADJACENT WATERS. FREQUENT GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WHILE GUSTS
OF AROUND 35 MPH WILL IMPACT THE SHORES. A COLDER AIRMASS DIGGING
IN WILL RESULT IN LOWS DOWN TO THE LOW- TO MID-30S WITH 20S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
SFC RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
THEN OFFSHORE. STILL A TAD BREEZY IN THE MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER ANY PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT. MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 40S...TO NEAR
50 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE WEST AND CLEARING THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
MOVES IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND GUIDANCE INDICATING GOOD
FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
A 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH SNE...AND COULD EVEN SEE SOME
BRIEF HEAVIER SQUALLS PER AREA OF -EPV COLOCATED WITH THE FGEN
BAND. FOR PTYPE...PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS RAIN THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS. ALONG THE COAST THE SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
BEFORE ENDING. MINOR ACCUM LESS THAN 1" POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HEADLINES...
* RAIN/SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
* BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO MIDWEEK
* HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE-WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND
* A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK
*/OVERVIEW AND MODEL CONSENSUS...
WHILE TRENDS ARE APPARENT...THE LARGE DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD
WITHIN FORECASTED ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS LENDS TO BROAD-SCALE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO OUTCOMES NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
THIS IS LIKELY THE CONSEQUENCE AS TO HOW POLAR LOWS ARE INDIVIDUALLY
HANDLED AS WELL AS THEIR INTERACTION WITH PACIFIC DISTURBANCES
THROUGH THE MARITIME FLOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS. IF THE NAO/AO
INDICES SHIFT NEGATIVE AS SUGGESTED...THEN LIKELY INTO THE LATER
HALF OF NOVEMBER AN ACTIVE PATTERN WOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS CLOSER TO RECORD EXTREMES.
THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN OUTCOMES DO EXIST...TRENDS WITHIN THE H5
PATTERN ARE COHESIVE AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ALLOWING FOR A
COMPREHENSIVE BLEND. 10.12Z GFS/NAM AND 10.0Z GEFS MEAN CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 10.12Z CANADIAN AND 10.0Z ECMWF
WITH REGARDS TO THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. +NAO/+AO
DO SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOWNSTREAM. GOOD AGREEMENT
OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
POOR HANDLING OF AN UPSTREAM HUDSON BAY CLIPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS ABOUT THE POINT
/FRIDAY/ WHEN SURFACE OUTCOME SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES LENDING TO
OVERALL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
WILL HIT UPON THE KEY THREATS AND IMPACTS WITHIN THE DAILIES BELOW.
*/DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...
*/TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE WITH ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS.
BROAD-SCALE LIFT TO THE REAR OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL YIELD
LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING PERIOD. SQUALLS POSSIBLE
WITH AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LATER. MINOR ACCUMULATION. COULD BE SOME
VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH STRONGER SQUALLS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
FEEL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN AND TIGHTEN TO THE REAR OF
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALLOWING THE
MIX-DOWN OF FASTER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE...WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE AND ADJACENT WATERS.
COLD AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING...COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON TAP.
HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER-30S TO LOW-40S. LOWS AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-
20S. COLDER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEENS. EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.
*/WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER DAY OF A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS AT THE SURFACE AROUND 15 MPH...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTH
AND EAST OVER THE WATERS. WINDS TAPER INTO THE EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. COLDEST AIR ACROSS THE REGION AROUND
0Z THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCEEDING THEREAFTER. MAY LIMIT
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS OF
THE LOW- TO MID-20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS HIGHS
EARLIER IN THE DAY ONLY RISE INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-30S.
*/THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND GRADUALLY
RISING SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
WILL BE LIMITED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...BUT AN
OCCASIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUST OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
*/SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST. WINDS VEERING EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. ACTIVE WEATHER
POSSIBLE BY THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. SCT-BKN 050 CIGS MAINLY WEST. W/NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25
KTS OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS ALONG THE SHORES.
WHILE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES MONDAY AS WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
EXPECT THE RETURN OF BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THE TERMINALS MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED -SHRA/-SHSN WHICH
COULD POSE MVFR/IFR IMPACTS IN BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
*/TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
VFR. -SHRA/-SHSN FOR THE MORNING WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS /MVFR OVER
THE FAR SOUTH AND EAST/. CLEARING THEREAFTER. BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 KTS /30 KTS SOUTH AND EAST/ TAPERING INTO EVENING
EXCEPT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE TERMINALS.
*/WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING TO TAPER TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
*/THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
VFR. WINDS BACKING SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS TONIGHT FOR
G35-40 KT. WE DOWNGRADED TO A STRONG SCA WITH G30 KT FOR BOS
HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT MAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME SW DURING
TUE...BUT ANOTHER PULSE OF GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY MON
NIGHT...INITIALLY SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFTING TO NW LATE
MON NIGHT. LOW PROB OF NEAR GALES. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE MON
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
*/TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE WATERS WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
REAR. THEREAFTER BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30
KTS SLOWLY TAPERING INTO THE EVENING. SEAS BECOMING MORE CHOPPY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...LOW CONFIDENCE GALE HEADLINES.
*/WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
NORTHWEST WINDS TAPERING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. SEAS TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY. EXPECTING A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAINLY
FOR SEAS.
*/THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. GUSTS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH - 14TH...
BOSTON... 14 /1883/ - 16 /1905/
HARTFORD... 18 /2001/ - 15 /1986/
PROVIDENCE...20 /2001/ - 16 /1905/
WORCESTER... 15 /1986/ - 10 /1986/
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ231>234-250-251-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237-255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...KJC/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...KJC/SIPPRELL
MARINE...KJC/SIPPRELL
CLIMATE...SIPPRELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1003 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
AREA LAKES. THE HRRR INDICATES LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAKE
MARION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS FARTHER WEST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIXING SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY COLD AIR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR MASS ORIGIN.
LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL 30 KT JET WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION.
THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT THEN DECREASING MONDAY MORNING
WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ031-036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
816 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
ON AREA LAKES. THE HRRR INDICATES LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
LAKE MARION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS FARTHER
WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIXING SHOULD
HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY COLD AIR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR MASS ORIGIN.
LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR ALONG
WITH A LOW LEVEL 30 KT JET WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION.
THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT THEN DECREASING MONDAY MORNING
WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ031-036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
637 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
ON AREA LAKES. THE HRRR INDICATES LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
LAKE MARION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS FARTHER
WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIXING SHOULD
HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY COLD AIR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR MASS ORIGIN.
LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUDS OF EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOVED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL 30 KT JET WILL LIMIT
ANY CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION. THE LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT THEN
DECREASING MONDAY MORNING WILL KEEP THE WINDS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ031-036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
609 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
ON AREA LAKES. THE HRRR INDICATES LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
LAKE MARION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS FARTHER
WEST. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIXING SHOULD
HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY COLD AIR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR MASS ORIGIN.
LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER IMPULSE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A DRY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER FORECAST INTO TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ031-036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
548 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CST
MULTIPLE ISSUES FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...BUT MAINLY
FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES AND PCPN TRENDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE SHIFTING
FROM SLY TO SWLY. EXPECT THAT THE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
ISSUANCE TIME WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
AND WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT THAT TEMPS SHOULD RADIATE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
30S...WITH A FEW ISOLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. UNDER
BROAD NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S...THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
BY MONDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE IMPACTS OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UNSEASONABLE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD...BUT HAVE SETTLED ON A SLOWER SOLUTION AS ADVERTISED BY
THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM WITH THE GFS REMAINING A FAST OUTLIER. THIS WOULD
PUSH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE IL/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL HAVE A
STRONG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LIKELY SEE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE DURG
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE THE MAX TEMP AT AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...SO SOME LIGHT PCPN IS
POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS SOME LIGHT SHRA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
AND THEN CHANGING OVER THE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN WHEN THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW MONDAY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND AN EVEN DRIER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH SOME OF
THE LOW-LYING...SHELTERED AREAS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE AN ADJUSTMENT
TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH ERN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...WHICH WOULD THEN BRING A MORE NWLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO
-14C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS WHICH ARE STILL AROUND 50F...THE MORE
NWLY FETCH WILL FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO NWRN INDIANA AND WRN
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL CWA BEING FOR
PORTER COUNTY...THOUGH ALL OF FAR NWRN INDIANA COULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. HAVE HAD SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS WERE WAY TOO WARM
AND NOT HANDLING THE MAX TEMPS VERY WELL FOR TUESDAY. AND THIS IS
STILL THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THAT THE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE IT IS STILL OVER
NRN CANADA ARE SUB-ZERO...HAVE OPTED TO TREND LOWER THAN EVEN THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A LITTLE AND STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MAX
TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ARE STILL TOO HIGH. BUT FOR NOW...GIVEN
THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C OVER THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHS OF 33-34F SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC...WITH
30-32F HIGHS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT
MORE OF THE CWA MAY NOT SEE TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IF
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TAKES A MORE ELY TRACK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
STILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT COLD FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AND
URBANIZED COOK COUNTY. BUT EVEN THE WARMER AREAS WILL STILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. ALSO...AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 15-19KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 21-25KT THRU 16Z
THEN VEERING WEST TO 18-21KT AND GUSTS NEARING 28-32KT.
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 2KFT AGL TO 55KT FROM THE S TO SW THRU
14Z THEN WINDS ALOFT DECREASE.
* WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS
SLOWLY DECREASING TO ARND 16-18KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST...WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING. WSR-88D KLOT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WINDS ALOFT AT 2KFT AGL AROUND 50KT...HOWEVER THE TREND
HAS BEEN A STEADY DECLINE IN THE FREQUENCY. WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION OF LLVL WS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING...ANY HEATING WILL INCREASE THE MIXING AND ALLOW THE
CURRENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT TO INCREASE TO 25-30KT BY MIDDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING THAT GUSTS COULD GO EVEN HIGHER BY
EARLY THIS AFTN TO AROUND 30-33KT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FELT MORE
CONFIDENT STICKING WITH GUSTS JUST UNDER 30KT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FLOAT OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARND 4-5KFT AGL
DEVELOPING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY...THEN
EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY
BY SUNSET.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLVL WS ENDING BY 14Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF WINDS TURNING W TO NW.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH A CHC FOR A MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TUESDAY...CHC FOR MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CST
MARINE CONCERNS/HAZARDS...
SPORADIC GALES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WILL CONTINUE THE
GALE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-MORNING. PERHAPS A FEW GALES
TO 40 KT MAY OCCUR FOR THE OPEN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GALES EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TO 20-25KT GUSTS BY DAYBREAK.
GALES BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GALES LOOK LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUE/WED...SO A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP.
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS MORNING...TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EAST INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...REACHING THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY.
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
NORTHTWEST GALES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH A LULL IN THE GALES. HOWEVER WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING VERY PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING TO
WEST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GALES WILL NOT RETURN
UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MON/TUE A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
LAKE WITH A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING...ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SETUP A LONG DURATION NORTH
FETCH FOR LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A LONG DURATION OF
GALES. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF GALES EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND
NORTH FETCH...WAVES WILL LIKELY BE LARGE FOR THE SOUTNERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE INDICATES WAVES FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO BE 7 TO 10 FT...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION THESE
WAVES COULD BE MUCH LARGER.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
525 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
Much of the Midwest between systems this morning as high pressure
slides to the east and an low pushes across the great lakes. Cold
front expected to pass through ILX today, bringing slightly cooler
air, but dry. Fairly progressive pattern in fast flow across the
CONUS today will continue through much of the forecast pd. Much
more amplified flow anticipated with next big forecast issue...a
low passing through southern Canada and bringing a front as well
Monday/Mon night. Within the more amplified flow, the Arctic air
opens up and pushes into the Midwest with much colder temperatures
with that front. Models starting to dig a trof in the SW going
into next weekend. Looks like a hint at a pattern change to a
possible split flow and not too stable just yet in the extended.
Forecast at this point remains conservative overall with very few
changes.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Breezy conditions today as approaching front compressing some
isobars across Central Illinois. Some warming anticipated to push
temps into the upper 50s/lower 60s before the cooler air with the
weak cold front this afternoon. Pretty good temp drop anticipated
tonight as skies clear out under the ridge and radiational cooling
is maximized. Tomorrows highs about 10 degrees below todays.
Tomorrow nights lows a bit warmer, though concerned that the
guidance is warming too much as the southerly component to the
winds does not kick in until early morning, and the cloud cover is
lacking particularly in the east. May need an adjustment,
depending on the speed of the cloud cover increase ahead of the
next front.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Next front a result of a deeper trof digging in over the region as
much cooler air taps into the Arctic airmass to the north. Precip
will be short lived...but persisting behind the front resulting in
a switch over to a mixed precip. Models have been speeding up a
bit with the progression of this particular system. 00z NAM and
GFS falling in line as well, even pulling ahead of the timing of
the ECMWF. Differences, however, show up with available moisture
for this system...and the NAM is producing far less RH in the
boundary layer until the Ohio River Valley. Tuesdays high
temperatures confined to the 30s behind the front. Remainder of
the 7 days dry and temperatures slowly recovering from the cold
blast, albeit slowly climbing to the upper 40s/lower 50s by the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Expecting skies to be clear through the period with maybe a little
bit of cirrus, but not enough to mention. Only issue is winds. Low
level wind shear continues this morning with 50kts at 2kft so will
keep WS mentioned in the TAFs until surface winds pick up in a
couple of hours. Then winds will be southwest and gusting to just
under 24kts. The dry cold front will sweep through this afternoon
with winds remaining gusty during the afternoon. Then at 00z,
expecting winds to decrease quickly and be at 11kts or less. CMI
will see the front come through and winds decrease at the same
time. Then expecting clear skies and west-northwest winds during
the evening and overnight at all sites.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
348 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
Much of the Midwest between systems this morning as high pressure
slides to the east and an low pushes across the great lakes. Cold
front expected to pass through ILX today, bringing slightly cooler
air, but dry. Fairly progressive pattern in fast flow across the
CONUS today will continue through much of the forecast pd. Much
more amplified flow anticipated with next big forecast issue...a
low passing through southern Canada and bringing a front as well
Monday/Mon night. Within the more amplified flow, the Arctic air
opens up and pushes into the Midwest with much colder temperatures
with that front. Models starting to dig a trof in the SW going
into next weekend. Looks like a hint at a pattern change to a
possible split flow and not too stable just yet in the extended.
Forecast at this point remains conservative overall with very few
changes.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Breezy conditions today as approaching front compressing some
isobars across Central Illinois. Some warming anticipated to push
temps into the upper 50s/lower 60s before the cooler air with the
weak cold front this afternoon. Pretty good temp drop anticipated
tonight as skies clear out under the ridge and radiational cooling
is maximized. Tomorrows highs about 10 degrees below todays.
Tomorrow nights lows a bit warmer, though concerned that the
guidance is warming too much as the southerly component to the
winds does not kick in until early morning, and the cloud cover is
lacking particularly in the east. May need an adjustment,
depending on the speed of the cloud cover increase ahead of the
next front.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Next front a result of a deeper trof digging in over the region as
much cooler air taps into the Arctic airmass to the north. Precip
will be short lived...but persisting behind the front resulting in
a switch over to a mixed precip. Models have been speeding up a
bit with the progression of this particular system. 00z NAM and
GFS falling in line as well, even pulling ahead of the timing of
the ECMWF. Differences, however, show up with available moisture
for this system...and the NAM is producing far less RH in the
boundary layer until the Ohio River Valley. Tuesdays high
temperatures confined to the 30s behind the front. Remainder of
the 7 days dry and temperatures slowly recovering from the cold
blast, albeit slowly climbing to the upper 40s/lower 50s by the
end of the week.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Strong compact vort max moving across upper Mississippi Valley
tonight continues to produce gusty south winds and a strong low-
level jet above the boundary layer. KILX VWP indicating 51 kts at
1300ft AGL. Latest RUC suggests LLJ may intensify a bit more
before shifting east and weakening by sunrise. Will retain LLWS
wording on ongoing TAFs. The combination of clouds in place and
the gusty winds has prevented much of a nocturnal inversion from
developing. As the night progresses, upstream observations and IR
imagery suggest that some partial clearing is likely and may be
sufficient enough to reduce sfc winds somewhat sooner than aloft,
Will include this trend in the new set of terminals.
Latest model suite is a bit drier than previous run with respect to
mid-level moisture and will reduce cloud coverage forecast to SCT
for Saturday and SKC Saturday evening. A weak cold front trailing the
system moving across the Great lakes should produce a wind shift
from SW to NW during the later part of the day with a drop off in
speed during the evening.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL FIRST FOCUS ON
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SHARP COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN
EXCESS OF 6 MB/3HR ARE REALLY KICKING UP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT
TO THESE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB TO WARM AROUND +14 TO 15 C AT KLBF AND KDDC THIS MORNING PER
THE 12 UTC RAOBS. THE 12 UTC RAOBS ALSO INDICATED WINDS SPEEDS UP
AROUND 40KT AT 850 MB ACROSS THESE AREAS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA...AND AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS
HAVE FURTHER INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KT THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL SET UP RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOME STRONGER GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT 850 AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 2-4 AND 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...THIS
SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND THE LOW 60S
SOUTH....AND THIS THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE GOING FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 20 TO 25
MPH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
VEER MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET ALSO...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY.
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FAR NORTH...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME
WEAK VIRGA TYPE ECHOS OUT WEST ACROSS IOWA. THIS AREA IS IN AN AREA
OF GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...POOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HENCE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIENT ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE A DEFINITE THIS EVENING...BUT I AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND DOMINATE THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME AREAS.
THE BIG STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A COLD PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC...JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE...AND A DEEP
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER TROUGH...WITH A COLD AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE YUKON
TERRITORIES OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA...TO DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS STRONG PUSH
OF COLD AIR DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COLD PATTERN SETTING
UP IS INCREASING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
THE PUSH A COLD AIR APPEARS TO SET UP A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES OF A PERIOD SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...APPEARS THAT IT
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GOOD BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SOUTHWARD DIGGING TROUGH COULD ALSO SET UP A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PATTERN FOR BETTER FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KT
UPPER JET POSSIBLY SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE AN GOOD
ANAFRONT TYPE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH MOST THE PRECIP FALLING IN THE
COLD SECTOR. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE FGEN...COULD ALSO RESULT IN
A SMALL WINDOW OF SOME MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT
BE A REAL SNOW MAKER FOR US...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IF THIS STRONGER FORCING DOES MATERIALS.
A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH...AROUND 1045 MB...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP A GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY DIPPING TO OR
EVEN COLDER THAN -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES CELSIUS...THIS WILL SET UP A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
FEATURING DELTA T`S IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS AT
OR JUST ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLY
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS WAY TO EARLY FOR AMOUNTS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. WITH THE 850 TEMPS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN AROUND -10...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EASILY
DROP INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS AWAY FROM THE CITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TRY TO MODERATE SOME LATE IN THE WEEK SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTH WINDS ARND 15-19KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 21-25KT THRU 09Z.
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 2KFT AGL TO 55KT FROM THE S TO SW THRU
DAYBREAK.
* SOUTH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE GUSTS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN GUSTS RETURN TO 25-30KT BY MIDDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN
AIRFIELDS HAS ALLOWED A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT AT 2KFT AGL TO
55-60 KTS TO DEVELOP LLVL WS OVER THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL QUICKLY PEEL
OFF TO THE EAST BY 09Z. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECOUPLED WINDS
AT THE SFC AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS AND WIND SPEEDS DECREASING
ARND 09-12Z. THEN SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK MIXING WILL RETURN AND HELP
BRING SPEEDS AND GUSTS BACK BY MIDDAY SAT TO 25-30KT AS WINDS
SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLVL WS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF WINDS TURNING SW TO W.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH A CHC FOR A MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TUESDAY...CHC FOR MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
316 PM CST
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO
GALES THIS EVENING. VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE INHIBITED DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SOME OF THE MOMENTUM FROM WINDS PUSHING 60 KTS AT
ABOUT 2500-3000 FT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN AT TIMES...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD SURFACE GUSTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 40-45 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KTS A POSSIBILITY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THOUGH DID PUSH BACK THE START
TIME A FEW HOURS FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AS THE WINDS APPEAR
TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SHORT LULL IN
THE GALES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT BECOMES A BIT BAGGY WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT THE
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MIXING.
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST GALES ARE ONCE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MIDDAY MONDAY...TAPERING MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...4 AM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 823 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Increased wind gusts this evening. Otherwise forecast on track.
Pressure falls are centered over Illinois this evening leading to
gusty conditions continuing onto the evening. Pressure fall center
has been weakening past hour or so and shifting closer to the
expected track of low pressure over southeast North Dakota will
continue to move rapidly east.
Barker
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Strong compact vort max moving across upper Mississippi Valley
tonight continues to produce gusty south winds and a strong low-
level jet above the boundary layer. KILX VWP indicating 51 kts at
1300ft AGL. Latest RUC suggests LLJ may intensify a bit more
before shifting east and weakening by sunrise. Will retain LLWS
wording on ongoing TAFs. The combination of clouds in place and
the gusty winds has prevented much of a nocturnal inversion from
developing. As the night progresses, upstream observations and IR
imagery suggest that some partial clearing is likely and may be
sufficient enough to reduce sfc winds somewhat sooner than aloft,
Will include this trend in the new set of terminals.
Latest model suite is a bit drier than previous run with respect to
mid-level moisture and will reduce cloud coverage forecast to SCT
for Saturday and SKC Saturday evening. A weak cold front trailing the
system moving across the Great lakes should produce a wind shift
from SW to NW during the later part of the day with a drop off in
speed during the evening.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
The weather pattern will remain zonal with fast moving weather
systems through early next week. Monday night, an Arctic trough
will dig into the midwest and push our coldest air of the season
into Illinois. While a period of light snow will be possible
Monday night, no accumulation is expected. Below normal temps will
prevail Monday night through Wed at least.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.
Mid and high clouds will drift across the skies tonight, as low
pressure moves from the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes. Southerly
winds feeding into that system will help keep our lows warmer than
last night. The warmer air will surge into the western areas
first, keeping lows in the lower 40s NW of the IL river, while
lows drop into the upper 30s southeast of I-70.
Saturday should turn into a pleasant Fall day as highs climb into
the lower 60s in many areas. A dry cold front will usher a brief
airmass change for Sunday, as highs struggle to climb into the lower
50s. Monday should see some improvement in temperatures south of
I-74 as the next low moves across southern Canada and an Arctic
cold front approaches Illinois. The timing of arrival of that
front is still a bit in question. In general, it appears the front
will move through IL during the day Monday, and much colder air
will arrive for Monday night. Post-frontal rain showers are
expected to develop Monday afternoon. The cold air rushing into
the area will work to change the precip to snow Monday evening,
but dry air aloft will be working to end the precip at the same
time. So any change over to snow should be brief enough to prevent
any snow accumulation. Also, the ground temps should remain above
freezing long enough to melt any snowfall.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.
Any snow showers Monday night will be east of Illinois by sunrise
on Tuesday, with high temps well below normal for Tuesday
afternoon. We expect highs to remain the in the 30s in most areas,
which are usually highs for the 2nd week of December. Lows will
likely dip into the teens north of I-72/74 Tuesday night under clear
skies and light winds.
A gradual warming trend will occur the remainder of the week as
the Arctic high settles into the southeastern states, and southerly
winds persist for a few days. It will still feel like Fall
however, with highs by Friday only in the upper 40s to around 50.
EJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RETURNING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP IN MONDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH LOWS INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
SQUEEZE BTWN CLIPPER SYS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES AND
STG RIDGING CNTRD OVR THE SERN US YIELDING AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY GOING FWD AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE LAKES. PEAK SFC GUSTS LOOK TO
OCCUR IN 15-18Z WINDOW TIMED W/STG MOMENTUM XFER AND GEOSTROPHIC FLW
W/00Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKING A BIT WEAK. SHRT TERM RUC PROGS
WOULD INDICATE 40KT GUSTS FOR A TIME LT MORNING ACRS NW OH WITHIN
RETREATING LLJ CORE AND QUITE PSBL ESP IF SIG INSOLATION DVLPS.
OTRWS SHALLOW CDFNTL BNDRY TO SHIFT THROUGH CWA LT THIS AFTN/EVE
W/MOD FOLLOWING CAA SURGE ESP LT TONIGHT AS LL FLW VEERS MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY NWRLY. MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM COMPARED
TO 2M PROGS AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FM PREV FCST...ESP SW
THIRD AWAY FM ANY LK CLD INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE NAM...WITH GFS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE NAM OVER SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...
THE GFS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A
NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH. THE SRF/ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUPPORT A
MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST FETCH WITH PARCELS TRAVELLING OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. CONCERN FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS DELTA T VALUES REFLECT EXTREME
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT TEMPERATURES
COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
AS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SFC LOW WILL PASS BY WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN
IOWA WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS/STRATOCU IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES...BUT COULD HAVE A BRIEF
IMPACT AT KSBN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE CLOUD SHIELD. STRONG LL WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS BEING MIXED DOWN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BRIEFLY BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS
BUT WILL STILL BE A BUMPY RIDE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
SQUEEZE BTWN CLIPPER SYS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES AND
STG RIDGING CNTRD OVR THE SERN US YIELDING AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY GOING FWD AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE LAKES. PEAK SFC GUSTS LOOK TO
OCCUR IN 15-18Z WINDOW TIMED W/STG MOMENTUM XFER AND GEOSTROPHIC FLW
W/00Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKING A BIT WEAK. SHRT TERM RUC PROGS
WOULD INDICATE 40KT GUSTS FOR A TIME LT MORNING ACRS NW OH WITHIN
RETREATING LLJ CORE AND QUITE PSBL ESP IF SIG INSOLATION DVLPS.
OTRWS SHALLOW CDFNTL BNDRY TO SHIFT THROUGH CWA LT THIS AFTN/EVE
W/MOD FOLLOWING CAA SURGE ESP LT TONIGHT AS LL FLW VEERS MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY NWRLY. MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM COMPARED
TO 2M PROGS AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FM PREV FCST...ESP SW
THIRD AWAY FM ANY LK CLD INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE NAM...WITH GFS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE NAM OVER SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...
THE GFS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A
NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH. THE SRF/ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUPPORT A
MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST FETCH WITH PARCELS TRAVELLING OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. CONCERN FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS DELTA T VALUES REFLECT EXTREME
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT TEMPERATURES
COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR FCST THIS PD. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET MIGRATING
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. PEAK GUSTS STILL XPCD IN 15-18Z TIME FRAME
COINCIDENT W/MAXIMIZED MOMENTUM XFER AFT RAPID MID MORNING MIXOUT.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AS OF 11Z...BUMPED TAF FCST WINDS A BIT
AGAIN AT KFWA AS CORE OF LLJ PERSISTS OVERHEAD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
439 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
SQUEEZE BTWN CLIPPER SYS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES AND
STG RIDGING CNTRD OVR THE SERN US YIELDING AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY GOING FWD AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE LAKES. PEAK SFC GUSTS LOOK TO
OCCUR IN 15-18Z WINDOW TIMED W/STG MOMENTUM XFER AND GEOSTROPHIC FLW
W/00Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKING A BIT WEAK. SHRT TERM RUC PROGS
WOULD INDICATE 40KT GUSTS FOR A TIME LT MORNING ACRS NW OH WITHIN
RETREATING LLJ CORE AND QUITE PSBL ESP IF SIG INSOLATION DVLPS.
OTRWS SHALLOW CDFNTL BNDRY TO SHIFT THROUGH CWA LT THIS AFTN/EVE
W/MOD FOLLOWING CAA SURGE ESP LT TONIGHT AS LL FLW VEERS MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY NWRLY. MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM COMPARED
TO 2M PROGS AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FM PREV FCST...ESP SW
THIRD AWAY FM ANY LK CLD INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE NAM...WITH GFS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE NAM OVER SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...
THE GFS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A
NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH. THE SRF/ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUPPORT A
MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST FETCH WITH PARCELS TRAVELLING OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. CONCERN FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS DELTA T VALUES REFLECT EXTREME
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT TEMPERATURES
COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR FCST THIS PD. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET MIGRATING
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES THIS MORNING W/SFC GUSTS SURPRISING TO THE
UPSIDE AS MID-HIGH CLD CVR IN ASSOCN/W UPR TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES AND SWRLY LL WAA SQUELCHING ANY BNDRY LYR COOLING.
PEAK GUSTS XPCD IN 15-18Z TIME FRAME COINCIDENT W/MAXIMIZED
MOMENTUM XFER AFT RAPID MID MORNING MIXOUT. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS
AS OF 09Z...MAY NEED TO BEST PRIOR TAF FCST WINDS A BIT AGAIN ESP
AT KFWA AS CORE OF LLJ PERSISTS OVERHEAD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
757 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
L0W PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE 1955 EDT: CANCELLED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATED ZONES ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE 1800 EDT: A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS OF 6 PM. ANOTHER BAND OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM MILLINOCKET TO DANFORTH WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1>6.
THE HRRR SHOWS THE STEADY SNOW ENDING BY 03 UTC/10 PM FOR ALL
ZONES. WILL REEVALUATE THE ADVISORY END TIME FOR NORTHEAST ZONES
BY 9 PM.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW
CONTINUING TO AFFECT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST OVER EASTERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON WHERE ANOTHER
1-3 INCHES WILLB BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. FURTHER SOUTH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS
COME TO AN END WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL.
FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE MINOR IF ANY. THESE FLURRIES WIND DOWN MONDAY
MORNING WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS SOUTH AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH.&&
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT WILL
PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AS
THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS MONDAY EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING IN
COLDER AIR LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WET ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AS TEMPS
FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. TUESDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY AND COLD AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AND WIND
CHILLS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN MANY SPOTS. SOME FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A BREEZE LIKELY CONTINUING. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL
BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DOWNEAST WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AND A CHILLY BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ONTO THE EAST COAST
THROUGH THE LAKE WEEK PERIOD BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MAY CONTINUE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL THEN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AS SOME WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS AS
THE MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY IFR IN THE NORTH THROUGH AFTERNOON IN SNOW WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW
WINDS DOWN AND EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY.
FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OUT HOWEVER STILL EXPECT STRATUS TO BRING MVFR/IFR INTO THIS
EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST LATE MONDAY
EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST ON
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MVFR IN SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. WINDS
WILL THEN LIKELY DROP BELOW SCA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI/BLOOMER
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE LOW
TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS IS ON SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHEAST OF MAINE LATER SUNDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER NORTH TO THE SJV. WHILE MANY AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR WILL GET
A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
RESULTING WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH OF HOULTON AND THE KATAHDIN REGION. IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT...GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW IN NE MAINE...HAVE INCREASED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARDS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AS ALWAYS WITH EARLY SEASON
SNOWS...ELEVATION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...
WILL MAINTAIN END TIME FOR THE SCA AT 3PM WITH WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. EXPECT ISSUANCE OF A NEW SCA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
940 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN ZONES
AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS IS ON SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHEAST OF MAINE LATER SUNDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH
OF HOULTON AND THE KATAHDIN REGION. HOWEVER...IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOW
IN NE MAINE...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO INCREASING SNOWFALL FORECASTS
TOWARDS 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE. AS ALWAYS WITH EARLY SEASON
SNOWS...ELEVATION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
618 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/POP/TEMP GRIDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
405 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER
850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO
-7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY
AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A
FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE
5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING
FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS
OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER
HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS
FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A
0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND
COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL.
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS
IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA
COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION
WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES
FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S.
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW
MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD
FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE
DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A SHARP CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFERING EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIRMASS BY FAR OF THE
SEASON TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
DEVELOPING IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. IN ADDITION...WINDY N-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAY BE ABOUT 3 HR
FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY FAST
MOVING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UP TO 0.10 INCH OF PCPN WILL FALL
WITH THE FRONT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C...EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO
FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH WESTERN PARTS PERHAPS SEEING TWO INCHES
WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY WILL ALLOW
850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -16C. THIS WILL YIELD GREAT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE OF OVER 9C/KM AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 3 KM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LAKE EFFECT MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF MARQUETTE WHERE
THE FETCH WILL BE THE LONGEST OWING TO N-NW PBL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE
INTERESTING PROBLEM WITH THIS LES EVENT WILL BE THE EXTRAORDINARY
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1047MB (OR OVER +3 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE
MEAN) BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS LEAD TO QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IN
ESSENCE...THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE LIKE A PURE LES EVENT IN JANUARY
VS THE NORMAL LAKE ENHANCED EVENTS THAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN NOVEMBER.
WILL PROBABLY SEE VERY DISTINCT LES BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE BANDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS THAT THESE
BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WITH THE PBL WINDS SHIFTING FROM
AROUND 320 DEG TO 345 DEG ON MONDAY...THEN BACK TO 330 OR 320 DEG
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. IN ADDITION...IT
IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
WILL HAVE ON THE LES. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW SUGGEST THAT THIS
DRYING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OVER THE WEST...WHICH MAY BE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LESSENED EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PRIMARY BAND WITH A
LAKE NIPIGON INFLUENCE INTO ALGER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO ALL
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MONDAY WILL END
UP BEING A FAIRLY WINDY AND SNOWY DAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL NECESSARILY FALL DUE TO THE REASONS GIVEN ABOVE...BUT IT
SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MODERATE SNOWFALL IN ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THROWING IN THE
STRONG WINDS...WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
STORM OF 2013/2014 FOR THESE AREAS. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW
AMOUNTS. AS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WEST INTO KEWEENAW...STILL PLENTY
OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE ALSO CLOSER TO
THE HIGH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KEWEENAW
WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES DESPITE FAVORABLE N-NW
WINDS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT
SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ANYTHING HEAVY
DUE TO THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MORE DRY AIR.
LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THIS
EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE WEST AS
A SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS. THINK
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH IFR VALUES WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AT
KIWD/KCMX (ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
KCMX). WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS...KSAW IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT MVFR. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING
THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH
THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HALTED THE GOOD WARMING THAT TOOK PLACE THIS
MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REACHED NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG INTERSTATE 94 IN NORTH
DAKOTA...EXTENDING INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL SURGE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD ACROSS CANADA WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS...BUT EXPECTING THIS COLD AIRMASS TO MODIFY BY 10-15
DEGREES DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE 20S.
SOMETHING TO WATCH IS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND ND. THIS BAND IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL MN AND WRN WI
TONIGHT...AND FAR SOUTHERN MN MONDAY MORNING. ONE THING THIS BAND
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL NARROW WHEN FORCING COINCIDES WITH NEAR BOUNDARY
LAYER SATURATION. THUS...ONLY ANTICIPATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION...IF IT EVEN HAPPENS AT ALL. WILL
MAINTAIN MEDIUM POPS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY.
A 1045 MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WITH
STRONG CAA LIMITING ANY RECOVERY FROM TONIGHT/S LOWS. VERY DRY AIR
WILL BRING RAPID CLEARING AS PW VALUES OF NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH
ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THESE VALUES WOULD BE
NEAR THE RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME COLD OVERNIGHT
LOWS INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING TO
THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF
RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
HOWEVER...AND IF IT OCCURS IT WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.
LONGER RANGE MODELS CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A LEADING SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST
AND AFFECT THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THE
MOMENT...MOST OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF A MIX SATURDAY MORNING...IF THE MOISTURE ARRIVES
EARLY ENOUGH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NAO TELECONNECTION IS
TRENDING STRONGLY NEGATIVE ONCE AGAIN. THIS WOULD CONFIRM THE SIGNAL THE
LONGER TERM MODELS ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT STORM
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES MOVING IN...WITH A NARROW AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS EVIDENT IN NORTH DAKOTA OBSERVATIONS...AS FAR WEST AS
JAMESTOWN. SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ALSO IN SOME OBS INCLUDING
FARGO BETWEEN 23Z-00Z. LATEST RAP LATCHES ON TO THIS...AND THERE
IS SOME HINT OF THIS AS SEEN IN BUFKIT AND IN THE LAMP GUIDANCE.
HAVE ADDED MVFR CEILINGS LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT FOR 2-4 HOURS
AT MOST SITES PLUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
ARRIVE WITH THE FRONT. AIR MASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE MORNING.
KMSP...TWO MAIN CONCERNS AND/OR CHANGES. ADDED SOME SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CEILING WITH FLURRIES AROUND 06Z...AND ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE
TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFTS. NARROW SWATH OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDS
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 00Z...AND THIS DOES LOOK TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS KMSP WITH FRONT. MAY BE SOME FLURRIES BRINGING
VSBY DOWN TO 4SM AT BRIEF TIMES. AS FOR WIND...LEADING TROUGH WILL
BRING WIND TO THE W OR NW LATE THIS EVENING BUT INCOMING SURGE OF
COLD AIR AND NNW WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS WILL ARRIVE A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE WNW WIND SHIFT. CLEARING SKIES BY 18Z BUT
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCOMING ARCTIC AIR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. SW WINDS 15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS VRB 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...TDK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1035 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT
IS LIMITING RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND THE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES STILL LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING A
LITTLE FASTER AS SOLID ALTOSTRATUS EXITS AND IS REPLACED BY A MORE
BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WARMING AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...NEW GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AND LGT SFC WINDS TO PREVAIL OVR THE NEXT 24
HRS. OCSNL -RA/DZ NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF I-20 THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. /BK/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
..UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT
TERM IS CLOUDS/PRECIP FIRST 24 HOURS. IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
COOLING TOPS OVER ARKLATEX REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET OVER LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
DECENT REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS AREA AS WELL...BUT DUE TO DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE RADAR RETURN IS VIRGA
WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT BEST OVERLAY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY AND THIS IS WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD RESIDE.
WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 750 MB WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AS WELL AS REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF RUNS IMPLY ROBUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL PRECIP FOR SOME RAIN TO POSSIBLY GET THROUGH THE DRY LOW
LEVELS TO THE SURFACE. THUS WILL ACCEPT THE 20/30 POPS FROM GFS MOS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND MENTION SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND GENERALLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WOULD IMPLY DIURNAL WARMING WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUS TODAY
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND HAVE WENT NEAR GFS MOS IN ONLY SHOWING 10-15
DEGREE RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS. MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED
IN SE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO LOWER 40S...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW A MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY.
TONIGHT 300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ASCENT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOISTURE THINNING OUT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS...BUT GIVEN REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM HIGH RES AND LOCAL
WRF MODELS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST KEEPING A LOW POP IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS PER GFS MOS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE W/NW WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS COULD ALLOW SOME BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ALSO BESOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...THUS WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICER DAY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEFINITE COOL DOWN LOOKS ON
TAP FOR THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE DELTA EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO EXPECT SOME
PRETTY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -4 TO -6C
WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT
..BUT EXPECT LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS H925 TEMPS RANGE
FROM 0 TO -2C. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARMER H925/H850 TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS/TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND ALSO BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 64 47 73 44 / 13 20 4 8
MERIDIAN 67 45 73 42 / 10 21 5 7
VICKSBURG 64 47 73 43 / 17 19 4 7
HATTIESBURG 71 49 75 46 / 4 11 8 9
NATCHEZ 67 47 73 46 / 10 13 4 7
GREENVILLE 61 45 68 43 / 26 25 3 6
GREENWOOD 62 44 69 42 / 20 26 4 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
335 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT
TERM IS CLOUDS/PRECIP FIRST 24 HOURS. IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
COOLING TOPS OVER ARKLATEX REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET OVER LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
DECENT REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS AREA AS WELL...BUT DUE TO DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE RADAR RETURN IS VIRGA
WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT BEST OVERLAY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY AND THIS IS WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD RESIDE.
WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 750 MB WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AS WELL AS REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF RUNS IMPLY ROBUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL PRECIP FOR SOME RAIN TO POSSIBLY GET THROUGH THE DRY LOW
LEVELS TO THE SURFACE. THUS WILL ACCEPT THE 20/30 POPS FROM GFS MOS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND MENTION SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND GENERALLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WOULD IMPLY DIURNAL WARMING WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUS TODAY
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND HAVE WENT NEAR GFS MOS IN ONLY SHOWING 10-15
DEGREE RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS. MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED
IN SE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO LOWER 40S...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW A MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY.
TONIGHT 300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ASCENT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOISTURE THINNING OUT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS...BUT GIVEN REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM HIGH RES AND LOCAL
WRF MODELS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST KEEPING A LOW POP IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS PER GFS MOS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE W/NW WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS COULD ALLOW SOME BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ALSO BESOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...THUS WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICER DAY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEFINITE COOL DOWN LOOKS ON
TAP FOR THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE DELTA EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO EXPECT SOME
PRETTY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -4 TO -6C
WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT
...BUT EXPECT LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS H925 TEMPS RANGE
FROM 0 TO -2C. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARMER H925/H850 TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS/TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND ALSO BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS./15/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ONLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT
TIMES...BUT GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVELS EXPECT THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 63 47 73 44 / 13 20 4 8
MERIDIAN 66 45 73 42 / 10 21 5 7
VICKSBURG 65 47 73 43 / 17 19 4 7
HATTIESBURG 72 49 75 46 / 4 11 8 9
NATCHEZ 68 47 73 46 / 10 13 4 7
GREENVILLE 60 45 68 43 / 26 25 3 6
GREENWOOD 60 44 69 42 / 20 26 4 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW END POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUD/
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 00 UTC WITH A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY
STILL NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTING THE CLEARING LINE WILL
REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY. THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
HERE TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S. ASSSUMING SOME DEGREE OF
CLEARING TAKES PLACE ELSEWHERE...ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS. WEAK SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH
IN THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH IF THE SUN MAKES A PROLONGED
APPEARANCE.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES. NORTH WIND
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...BUT
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A 1044 TO 1048 HPA SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CENTER OF
HIGH REMAINS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LIMITING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. ASSUMING
CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT WITH
925 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FROM -8 TO -12 C...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUB-
ZERO READINGS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES POINT TOWARD A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR CIGS AT KFAR SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS STREAM
DOWN VIA NORTHWEST FLOW FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FROM KTVF THROUGH KBJI FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LOSE THEIR CIGS BY 06Z TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND CORE AOA
25KTS KDVL TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE THE OTHER SITES STAY CLOSER TO 20 KTS. DECREASE TO 10
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIND ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH OBSERVED SPEEDS ARE MARGINAL.
AREAS FROM DEVILS LAKE TO COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 25 TO 28 KTS SUSTAINED WITH LESSER WINDS FARTHER EAST. WILL
NOT EXPAND CURRENT HEADLINE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS
OF IT EARLY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST ISSUANCE.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALSO FORMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...BUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL MOVEMENT SINCE MORNING UPDATE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING WEAK BAND OF LIGHT SNOW JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO NORTHWEST MN
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...IF ANY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WIND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM RUGBY TO CARRINGTON HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A SUSTAINED 26 KTS
(30 MPH) WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH AT CARRINGTON. EVEN FARGO HAD A
PEAK WIND TO 43 MPH AT 0830 CST. WITH THE RAP SHOWING AT LEAST 35
KTS AT 925 HPA TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND UP TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DEEPEN THAT FAR WITH CLOUD COVER...THINK
A WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN UNTIL 00 UTC TONIGHT. TRUE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET
AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BE INTERMITTENT...BUT EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE DAY. WEB CAMS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY INTO THE 2 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE DUE MORE TO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE THAN SNOW...SO ADDED FOG THROUGH 18 UTC AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH 00 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OR
DRIZZLE FREEZING ON IMPACT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...AND UP TO 850MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35
KNOTS...AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS (WEAKER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA). WITH THE MODELS INDICATING DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 26 KNOTS
SUSTAINED). CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING (DELAYED THE
CLEARING UNTIL TONIGHT). TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM
TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE IS ENTERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE UP TO AN INCH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN CAA AND
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR THE SKY. ASSUMING THAT THE SKY DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS (FOLLOWING COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED
BETTER THE PAST WEEK).
ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW-
MID 40S (ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY). STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST COULD BE 5F-8F TOO COOL. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE...AND WE HAVE LOWER END POPS
HERE. ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FROPA GIVEN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED (MODELS ONLY SHOWING WINDS
ALOFT OF 25-30 KNOTS...SO IF THAT IS TRUE THIS WOULD BE SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE VALUES ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY -12C TO
-18C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOLLOWED THE COLDER GUIDANCE CONSIDERING MODEL PERFORMANCE
FOR THIS PAST WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TRANSITORY MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...LIMITED SOMEWHAT THOUGH BY
THE VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH
FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARY AMONG MODELS...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY IMPULSE MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR CIGS AT KFAR SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS STREAM
DOWN VIA NORTHWEST FLOW FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FROM KTVF THROUGH KBJI FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LOSE THEIR CIGS BY 06Z TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND CORE AOA
25KTS KDVL TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE THE OTHER SITES STAY CLOSER TO 20 KTS. DECREASE TO 10
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS EROSION TAKING PLACE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVE VALLEY MAINTAINING BKN/OVC CONDITIONS. WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES WITH UPDATES TO THE SKY GRIDS AND WINDS THIS PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CARRINGTON HAD A GUST TO 51 MPH...WITH WIND 30 MPH SUSTAINED AT
MINOT AND RUGBY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING TO REST OF TEXT PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LESS BREAKS
NORTH. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP13 925MB-H85 RH FIELD...THE
TREND IS FOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
AND ERODING FROM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCUR WITH THIS THOUGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND VERY SLOWLY PERMEATES TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MONITORED AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MET
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE INITIATED. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPAND
IT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WILL METWATCH THEN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
MINOR UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CIGS WILL BEGIN IN MVFR STATUS BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO
38KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KJMS THROUGH 22Z SUNDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS
THEREAFTER. AN ARCTIC SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO KISN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO PERIODICALLY LOWER TO
MVFR STATUS ONCE AGAIN...DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN AERODROMES
ON SOUTHWARD AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WIND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM RUGBY TO CARRINGTON HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A SUSTAINED 26 KTS
(30 MPH) WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH AT CARRINGTON. EVEN FARGO HAD A
PEAK WIND TO 43 MPH AT 0830 CST. WITH THE RAP SHOWING AT LEAST 35
KTS AT 925 HPA TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND UP TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DEEPEN THAT FAR WITH CLOUD COVER...THINK
A WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN UNTIL 00 UTC TONIGHT. TRUE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET
AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BE INTERMITTENT...BUT EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE DAY. WEB CAMS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY INTO THE 2 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE DUE MORE TO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE THAN SNOW...SO ADDED FOG THROUGH 18 UTC AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH 00 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OR
DRIZZLE FREEZING ON IMPACT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...AND UP TO 850MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35
KNOTS...AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS (WEAKER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA). WITH THE MODELS INDICATING DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 26 KNOTS
SUSTAINED). CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING (DELAYED THE
CLEARING UNTIL TONIGHT). TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM
TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE IS ENTERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE UP TO AN INCH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN CAA AND
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR THE SKY. ASSUMING THAT THE SKY DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS (FOLLOWING COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED
BETTER THE PAST WEEK).
ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW-
MID 40S (ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY). STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST COULD BE 5F-8F TOO COOL. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE...AND WE HAVE LOWER END POPS
HERE. ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FROPA GIVEN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED (MODELS ONLY SHOWING WINDS
ALOFT OF 25-30 KNOTS...SO IF THAT IS TRUE THIS WOULD BE SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE VALUES ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY -12C TO
-18C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOLLOWED THE COLDER GUIDANCE CONSIDERING MODEL PERFORMANCE
FOR THIS PAST WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TRANSITORY MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...LIMITED SOMEWHAT THOUGH BY
THE VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH
FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARY AMONG MODELS...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY IMPULSE MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TRANSITION WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR TO IFR.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OR EVEN MORE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...BRIEFLY UP TO 35 KTS
VCNTY KFAR...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH
FLURRIES TO THE WEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
925 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CARRINGTON HAD A GUST TO 51 MPH...WITH WIND 30 MPH SUSTAINED AT
MINOT AND RUGBY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING TO REST OF TEXT PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LESS BREAKS
NORTH. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP13 925MB-H85 RH FIELD...THE
TREND IS FOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
AND ERODING FROM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCUR WITH THIS THOUGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND VERY SLOWLY PERMEATES TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MONITORED AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MET
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE INITIATED. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPAND
IT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WILL METWATCH THEN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
MINOR UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LESS BREAKS
NORTH. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP13 925MB-H85 RH FIELD...THE
TREND IS FOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
AND ERODING FROM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCUR WITH THIS THOUGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND VERY SLOWLY PERMEATES TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MONITORED AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MET
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE INITIATED. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPAND
IT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WILL METWATCH THEN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
MINOR UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
628 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...AND UP TO 850MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35
KNOTS...AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS (WEAKER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA). WITH THE MODELS INDICATING DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 26 KNOTS
SUSTAINED). CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING (DELAYED THE
CLEARING UNTIL TONIGHT). TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM
TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE IS ENTERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE UP TO AN INCH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN CAA AND
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR THE SKY. ASSUMING THAT THE SKY DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS (FOLLOWING COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED
BETTER THE PAST WEEK).
ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW-
MID 40S (ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY). STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST COULD BE 5F-8F TOO COOL. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE...AND WE HAVE LOWER END POPS
HERE. ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FROPA GIVEN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED (MODELS ONLY SHOWING WINDS
ALOFT OF 25-30 KNOTS...SO IF THAT IS TRUE THIS WOULD BE SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE VALUES ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY -12C TO
-18C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOLLOWED THE COLDER GUIDANCE CONSIDERING MODEL PERFORMANCE
FOR THIS PAST WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TRANSITORY MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...LIMITED SOMEWHAT THOUGH BY
THE VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH
FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARY AMONG MODELS...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY IMPULSE MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TRANSITION WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR TO IFR TO
LIFR. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OR
EVEN MORE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITHIN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH FLURRIES TO THE WEST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DECREASING THIS
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND
KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 04 UTC RAP WHICH HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED
TO THE 05-06 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS AND A FEW SURFACE REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN AT WATFORD
CITY AND MINOT AND LIGHT SNOW FROM TIOGA. PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND NO ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED. ALSO FURTHER
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ND AT 00Z. GUSTY WINDS WERE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF STATE WHERE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT.
RADAR SHOWED SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA
WHICH IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
LATE EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO SW
CWA AND LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ND PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
MODELS SHOW QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST ND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP
CLOUDS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION DWINDLING IN THE WEST AND
THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST IS MARGINAL RIGHT
NOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SEEN IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WHICH
REPRESENTS THE MAIN LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POCKET/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. COLDER ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40F FAR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A BLAST
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES AND TIMING.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM WITH THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL GEM LOOKS TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE AREA LONGEST. THIS RESULTS IN VARYING SOLUTIONS OF SNOWFALL OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BUT THE
DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN A MODEL BLEND WITH
PERSISTENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SWATH
OF A COUPLE INCHES COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
TAPERING QUICKLY AS YOU MOVE NORTHEAST.
AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE STRAYED FROM THE
DEFAULT MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BLENDED SOLUTION USUALLY TENDS TO NOT CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR WITH THESE ARCTIC SURGES...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AN ACTIVE
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A QUICK WARM-UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD APPEARS
RATHER QUIET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
958 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE HIGH-IMPACT SUB-ADVISORY (HISA) EVENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEM...AS ACCUMS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...
ROADS THAT ARE WET FROM RAIN OR MELTING SNOW WILL QUICKLY ICE UP
AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. ISSUED AN SPS AND UPDATED THE HWO TO GET THE
WORD OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTH IS FINALLY EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT QUICKLY ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...DROPPING
VSBYS TO 1 1/2SM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MANITOBA. WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMS AND TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE VORT PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS VERY GOOD ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
-DIVQ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE THOUGH...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT SHOULD SEE A
BKN BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PTYPE AS
MOSTLY SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHILE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN PRECIP
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH. COULD SEE A
DUSTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. MAX OMEGA WILL RESIDE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY INTENSE WITHIN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. BECAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING...TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...BUT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOOD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH OFF THE
MORNING LOWS. MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT DURING THE
MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS PARTIALLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY...AND SHOULD LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. MORNING HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEST UPPER RIDGE/EAST TROF TRANSITIONS TO
WESTERN TROF AND EASTERN RIDGE. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PERIOD.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE LK SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT WINDS BACK QUICKLY ENDING THREAT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE...ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM WEAK WAVE PRODUCES A PERIOD OF
LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN...LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI.
AS RIDGE MOVES OFF EAST COAST...DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX NOTED.
ANOTHER WAVE IN SW FLOW PRODUCES LARGER AREA OF RAIN...CLIPPING
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SW FLOW WILL USHER IN MILDER TEMPS AFTER TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMS BY END OF WEEK. TEMP FORECAST A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE
WI/MI AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE BY
7 AM MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND
SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS...DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHER THAN A BRIEF MIX AT THE ONSET...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY ALL SNOW AT AUW/CWA...WHILE TEMPS LOOK
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT RHI. FOR GRB/ATW...ENOUGH WARM AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO START AS
RAIN...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS. THINK
THE SNOW WILL STAY NORTH OF RHI...HOWEVER WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT AUW/CWA/GRB/ATW AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
604 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTH IS FINALLY EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT QUICKLY ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...DROPPING
VSBYS TO 1 1/2SM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MANITOBA. WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMS AND TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE VORT PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS VERY GOOD ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
-DIVQ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE THOUGH...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT SHOULD SEE A
BKN BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PTYPE AS
MOSTLY SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHILE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN PRECIP
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH. COULD SEE A
DUSTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. MAX OMEGA WILL RESIDE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY INTENSE WITHIN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. BECAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING...TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...BUT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOOD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH OFF THE
MORNING LOWS. MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT DURING THE
MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS PARTIALLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY...AND SHOULD LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. MORNING HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEST UPPER RIDGE/EAST TROF TRANSITIONS TO
WESTERN TROF AND EASTERN RIDGE. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PERIOD.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE LK SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT WINDS BACK QUICKLY ENDING THREAT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE...ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM WEAK WAVE PRODUCES A PERIOD OF
LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN...LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI.
AS RIDGE MOVES OFF EAST COAST...DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX NOTED.
ANOTHER WAVE IN SW FLOW PRODUCES LARGER AREA OF RAIN...CLIPPING
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SW FLOW WILL USHER IN MILDER TEMPS AFTER TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMS BY END OF WEEK. TEMP FORECAST A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING THE
WI/MI AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN INTO THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE BY
7 AM MONDAY. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND
SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE STRONGER SNOW
SHOWERS...DROPPING CIGS/VSBYS TO IFR. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHER THAN A BRIEF MIX AT THE ONSET...TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY ALL SNOW AT AUW/CWA...WHILE TEMPS LOOK
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW AT RHI. FOR GRB/ATW...ENOUGH WARM AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE PRECIP TO START AS
RAIN...THEN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO MIX
WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN...AS
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS. THINK
THE SNOW WILL STAY NORTH OF RHI...HOWEVER WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT AUW/CWA/GRB/ATW AS
CLOUDS DEPART AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE SOUTHWARD OF 850 TO 925 MB MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AT 800 MB THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN THIS INVERSION LOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PRODUCES ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS
ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE LOOP...THERE ARE CURRENTLY HOLES AT THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AND THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST IN THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DARKNESS
NOT THAT FAR AWAY...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE RUC JUST IN CASE THE CURRENT
MOISTURE THAT IS OUT THERE CAN SPREAD BELOW THE INVERSION.
MEANWHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...THE CLOUD
FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE AREA
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AS THE 925 TO 850 LAPSE
RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG 800 TO 600 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND 280-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE
FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 30 MB.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT
AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE JUST A
TRACE.
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 30 MB
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME...THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
LIKE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE STRONG
COLD AIR ADEVCTION. SINCE THE CONSRAW TENDS TO HANDLE THESE
SITUATIONS THE BEST...WENT WITH IT FOR POPULATING THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN STABILIZE AND RISE
A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF IT WAS NOT FOR
THE LACK OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILLS ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ON TUESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NORMALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8C. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY EVENING...
AND THEN STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE. THE 280-290K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO NOT FALL TO LESS THAN 30 MB
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL IT MOVED INTO THIS AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
PROBLEMATIC CIG FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS POINT TO A
BROAD EXPANSE OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS ND...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING DOWN OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ERODE THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STRATUS...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AT
KRST/KLSE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAP IS QUITE
DIFFERENT...HOLDING ONTO THIS LOW SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS HOLD ONTO A 850-800 MB INVERSION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED...CLOUDS AND
THE MVFR CIGS COULD HANG AROUND TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY. GOING TO
STEER THE TAFS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY
TO CLEAR CLOUDS A BIT TOO FAST IN FALL/WINTER...AND THIS MIGHT BE
THE CASE HERE. IF MIXING BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH CLOUDS
ERODING...TAFS WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR THE QUICKER CLEARING
TREND.
AS FOR WINDS...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM RELATIVELY
STRONG/GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...SO LOOK FOR
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW AND FLOODING THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN
AN OB WITH PRECIP IN IT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE OBSERVED A FEW GUSTS
REACHING 34 TO 35 KNOTS. WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...SHOULD SEE THE GUSTINESS CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT PRECIP ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH SOME SURFACE STABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...MARGINALLY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT
PROGGED SOUNDINGS...THEY SHOW DECREASING SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
TOO OPTIMISTIC...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT ALSO ON THERMAL
TROUGHING AND VEERING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z. CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN SO
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. DELTA T/S ARE ONLY AROUND
13-14C...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS AN INCH OVER
NORTHERN VILAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH BACKING WINDS AND A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THEN A MID AND HIGH DECK
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. A 125KT JET
AT 300MB COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A DECENT AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPSTREAM LAKES ARE NOT FROZEN YET AND IT
SEEMS LIKE THEY CONTRIBUTE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR
OUTBREAKS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO
EXTREME AND WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AT TIMES. THE MAIN THING WORKING
AGAINST A BIG EVENT IS THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND ALSO SUBSIDENCE.
THINK THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS
IN VILAS COUNTY.
IT WILL BECOME MILDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER
OF THE COLD AIR PASSES BY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE EAST OVER
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST...AND BRING IN
COLDER AIR AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING MORE LAKE EFFECT
BASED TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN WILL START TO SEE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. WITHIN THE PRECIP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS SHOWING WINDS INCREASING AT 900MB TONIGHT
INTO THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SUPPORTIVE OF GALES OVER THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT TO DOOR
COUNTY. SO WITH COORDINATION FROM MQT...UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING. SOME DISCUSSION OF UPGRADING TO GALES FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT
SUGGESTS THE HIGHER END GUSTS WILL OCCUR MORE TOWARDS OPEN LAKE THAN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1144 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD. A LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS COVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
AREA. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST.
SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOES/R PG NSSL WRF ABI SYNTHETIC
SAT IMAGERY HAS A FAIR HANDLE ON MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER. IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY RECEDING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER DAY.
JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEL RH AND RAP PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...THIS
DOESNT SEEM TOO UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THE ABI FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO QUICK GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT THE MODELS AND RAP13 HOLD ON TO AT THE LOW
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LATEST TRENDS
VIA VIS SATELLITE AND WHAT IS UPSTREAM.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT WINDS ALOFT...WITH MEAN
1000-850 HPA WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD
BE REALIZED AT THE SFC...GIVEN ADEQUATE MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ET
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT OVERCAST VFR DECK TO BROKEN
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY
OCCUR AT TAF SITES...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP THESE
CEILINGS MIX UP TO VFR CATEGORY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND VEER NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES BY 12Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WEST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KNOT GALES. WINDS AT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 35
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH MAY MIX DOWN AT TIMES. NOT SURE IF
THEY WILL BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING. WILL KEEP WATCH
AND DECIDE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY...UNTIL THE GUSTS SUBSIDE BELOW
22 KNOTS.
WOOD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
IMPRESSIVE PV1.5 CENTER BELOW 500 MB NEAR GRB CURRENTLY AND PULLING
AWAY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE KICKING IN AND EVEN BRIEF
CLEARING BEFORE COLD ADVECTION MIXING CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
RAP13 TAKES SECOND SUB 500MB PV1.5 CENTER FROM NORTH DAKOTA
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY. MODELS HOLD ONTO
DECENT MOISTURE AROUND 3000FT THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. A TAD OF CAPE SHOWN BUT VERY STRONG
INVERSION IN 850-800 MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION SPREADING
OUT A FAIRLY LOW LEVEL. MOISTURE STAYS BELOW -5C SO LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES FLURRIES SO WILL LEAVE IT DRY DESPITE SOME
HINTS FROM 4KM MODELS OF THAT POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
WILL BE COLD ADVECTING ALL DAY BUT 925 MB TEMPS UP AROUND +5C
SUGGEST UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
OFF. ECMWF MOS HAS MIDDLE 50S AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH.
TONIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
1030MB HIGH SETTLES INTO IOWA BY MORNING. NORTHWEST GRADIENT
REMAINS FRESH ALL NIGHT SO NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BUT READINGS
WILL ONLY GET DOWN AROUND 30F DUE TO DECENT MIXING AND LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND LATE AFTERNOON WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL
HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S. STEADY WAA
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE WAA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODEL DISCREPANCIES LEAD TO THE MENTION OF RAIN OR
SNOW IN NORTHERN MKX FCST AREA. THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO HAVE A
FASTER SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI THAN THE
NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. WPC PREFERS A NON-GFS SOLUTION SO
STEERED AWAY FROM IT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME WAA PRECIP COULD TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN THE FCST. PRECIP TYPE WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT/S WAA-RELATED AND SNOW IF IT/S COLD FRONT-RELATED.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THEREAFTER. SOME MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL ARRIVE
JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. THERE IS STRONGER OMEGA POST-FRONTAL WITH SLOPED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER BELOW 850MB THAT COULD LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL ROUGHLY BE THE HIGH TEMPS TUE IN THE
NORTHWEST MKX FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE MORNING. IF ALL THE PRECIP IS POST FRONTAL...THEN MODEL
TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW. IF IT IS ALONG THE FRONT...THEN
EXPECT A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND
COOLS.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SO KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP
END TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO -10C OVERNIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR...ALLOWING LOWEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR...IN THE UPPER
TEENS INLAND FROM THE LAKE. 925MB TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO -8C BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COLD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES.
A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
WI ON THU AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE MORE AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT QPF...SO EXPECT INCREASING POPS FOR
THU WITH LATER FORECASTS. THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MOVE OUT...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTHERN WI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST TODAY AND THEN
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. BROKEN VFR LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO BE THE RULE TODAY
BUT COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING AS BATCH FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA MOVES EAST.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG CLOUDS HOLD IN. NAM SCATTERS THINGS
OUT BY 21Z WHILE GFS HOLDS ON THROUGH 03Z. WILL LEAN TOWARD SLOWER
GFS AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE STUBBORN IN THESE SITUATIONS.
MARINE...
GALES ARE SUBSIDING BUT WILL STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
COORDINATED WITH GRB AND LOT AND WILL END GALE AT NEXT NEAR SHORE
UPDATE AND GO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.
FLOW IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WAVES DRIVEN BY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE FOR A
WHILE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WILL RESULT
IN GUST NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
A MAINLY CLOUDY AND SEASONALLY COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
NOW INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WILL PROPAGATE TO
THE EAST TODAY THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE
WILL PULL SOME COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT AND CREATE SOME STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS LAYER FORMING AND HOLDING ON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LIFT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO DEVELOP ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE KNOCKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND
WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS ON THE COLD AIR THAT IS PRIMED TO
TAKE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE
GOING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP FROM AROUND 0C ON SUNDAY TO AROUND -15C BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 30F ON TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. 09.00Z NAM/GFS
STANDARDIZED 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOWS ABOUT -2
DEVIATIONS FROM NORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
TYPICALLY MEANS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS. THE RECORD LOWS ARE PRETTY LOW FOR THESE TWO DAYS...SO AM
NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE BROKEN BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE OTHER PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS WITH WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM BEHIND/ALONG THE COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING IS OFF TO THE EAST WHERE
THE MAIN TROUGH IS GOING TO TRACK...BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME PRECIPITATION. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WITH IT LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUICK
SHOT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM IT. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR IT IS FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE
FORCING IS A BIT DEEPER.
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE COLD AIR STARTS TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALREADY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
PROBLEMATIC CIG FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS POINT TO A
BROAD EXPANSE OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS ND...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING DOWN OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ERODE THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STRATUS...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AT
KRST/KLSE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAP IS QUITE
DIFFERENT...HOLDING ONTO THIS LOW SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS HOLD ONTO A 850-800 MB INVERSION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED...CLOUDS AND
THE MVFR CIGS COULD HANG AROUND TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY. GOING TO
STEER THE TAFS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY
TO CLEAR CLOUDS A BIT TOO FAST IN FALL/WINTER...AND THIS MIGHT BE
THE CASE HERE. IF MIXING BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH CLOUDS
ERODING...TAFS WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR THE QUICKER CLEARING
TREND.
AS FOR WINDS...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM RELATIVELY
STRONG/GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...SO LOOK FOR
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SO FAR...ONLY SCT MIXED PCPN HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER NC WI...AS WAS
EXPECTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. OVERALL...NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION
SEEN ON THE AREA RADAR MOSAIC...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 22Z HRRR SHOWS SCT PCPN OVER SE MN/W WI
BLOSSOMING AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DUE TO
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/W TROF...WAA AND THE
LFQ OF THE UPPER JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO CONCERNED THAT PCPN-TYPE MAY END UP BEING MAINLY SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WET BULB TEMPS ARE HOVERING AT
OR A LITTLE BLO FREEZING. CROSSHAIRS SIGNATURES (MAX OMEGA
COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) SHOWING UP ON TIMESECTIONS
OVER THE FAR NORTH...SO A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP ACCUMS A LITTLE BIT THERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST ISSUE WILL BE DEALING WITH A BAND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION (WAA) PRECIP PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN...HOWEVER EVAPORATIVE COOLER SHOULD COOL THE
COLUMN ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. HAD
REPORTS OF SPRINKLES...FLURRIES...AND EVEN SLEET WITH THE PRECIP
TO OUR WEST. SO WITHOUT MAKING IT TOO COMPLICATED IN THE
GRIDS...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WI...WITH RAIN OVER FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
ONCE THE WAA PRECIP PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL SPREAD MORE PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA. BEST AREA OF FORCING WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER JET. WILL CARRY LIKELY
POPS NORTH AND HIGH-END CHANCE POPS SOUTH. OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
MIXING WITH SLEET (OR SNOW) SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE...
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE NORTH...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
MORE OF A CONCERN. CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THICKNESSES HOVER AROUND THE
MI/WI BORDER MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF RHI...WITH MORE SNOW CLOSER TO THE BORDER. MODELS SHOW UP
TO 0.3 INCHES OF QPF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SO IF IT IS ALL
SNOW COULD GET UP TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME MIXING TO
OCCUR SO WILL HOLD ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 2 INCHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP LATE TONIGHT.
CYCLONIC ALOFT KICKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. SATURDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY AS 925MB WINDS OF 30-40 WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MIXING TO AROUND 3000FT SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO
REACH BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. COLD
AIR ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND WITH
WEST/DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES TO THE FAR NORTH. THE 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY. SOME QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM LARGE SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH. THINK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OR END MONDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR AT 850MB (-16C TO -19C) EXPECTED TO PLUNGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE DEPICTED FALLING TEMPERATURES
IN THE GRIDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW DUE
TO MOISTURE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
STEADY PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/SAT. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AUW TO MNM...A MIX
OF RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND
MAINLY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER NORTHERN WI. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. LLWS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...BUT
GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 KTS
BETWEEN 03-12Z SATURDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS DEGREE OF MIXING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT...ONLY MINIMAL
MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN GALE FORCE GUSTS...SO WILL UPGRADE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO A GALE WARNING FROM 00-12Z
SATURDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT WINDS
ALOFT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SO THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS FREQUENT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
327 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A DRY COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA AND THE CSRA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK, INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT ON AREA LAKES. THE HRRR SHOWS LAKE WINDS CURRENTLY ABOUT
15 KNOTS WELL BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. VWP SHOWS 1
KFT WINDS 35 KT AND THE RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS 1500
FOOT WINDS NE 33 KT AT 09Z WHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDING GIVE 1500 FOOT
WINDS NE AT 28 KT. SO IF WINDS MIX DOWN ON LAKE MARION...THERE
COULD BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT HRRR TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE MARION ARE
50-55 DEGREES. SO THE WINDS MAY MIX DOWN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 40S. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WITH DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DROP OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR LAKE MARION UNTIL 11 AM BUT WINDS MAY DROP OFF 2-3 HOURS
EARLY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER 60S
NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH STILL LOOK OK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
EASTERN STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY
COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR
MASS ORIGIN. LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A DRY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
146 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
AREA LAKES. THE HRRR SHOWS LAKE WINDS CURRENTLY ABOUT 15 KNOTS
WELL BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. VWP SHOWS 1 KFT WINDS
30 KT AND THE RUC13 FORECAST SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS 1500 FOOT WINDS
NE 33 KT AT 09Z WHILE NAM BUFR SOUNDING GIVE 1500 FOOT WINDS NE
AT 28 KT. SO IF WINDS MIX DOWN ON LAKE MARION...THERE COULD BE
SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION BUT HRRR TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE MARION ARE 50-55
DEGREES. SO THE WINDS MAY MIX DOWN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY COLD AIR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR MASS ORIGIN.
LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A DRY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1237 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
INCREASED MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
AREA LAKES. THE HRRR INDICATES LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON LAKE
MARION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS A LITTLE LESS FARTHER WEST.
SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MIXING SHOULD HELP
HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. WE LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE EASTERN
STATES...RIDGE OUT WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL TRANSPORT VERY COLD AIR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ARCTIC AIR MASS ORIGIN.
LATEST MODELS RUN SUGGEST MORE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT APPROACHES SO CUT TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION
DEVELOPS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
QPF EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LOW. MODELS APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT. MODELS ARE TRENDING
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN ANY SORT OF BRIEF WINTRY MIX THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL
LIQUID FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT INDICATING
RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOISTURE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. BEST
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS. POPS AND QPFS
REMAIN LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. WITH A DEVELOPING TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...IT WILL BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BELOW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
A DRY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ALONG WITH SOME
WIND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
TUE NT/WED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ031-
036>038.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
352 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS
A WAYS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOME
SPOTTY FOG THAT HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE
AT TIMES.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FAIRLY HIGH...IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF THE VISIBILITY DROPS IN FOG.
EXPECT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MOIST
AIR THERE WILL BE SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
START TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FOG THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE
AND HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. THE HRRR AND SREF BOTH
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE. WILL START WITH THAT AND
WATCH.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THERE IS VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO WARM VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND
WILL PROBABLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MAINLY 10
TO 20 KNOTS SO THE WIND SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO.
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING OUT
OF THE OF THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE...AS THE HEART OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT
THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED SOME SINCE MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID
NOVEMBER LOWS.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WITH THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODIFY CLOSER TO...OR EVEN ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN JUST SPRINKLES.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND JUST BEYOND...MODEL DISCREPANCY
GROWS AND THE 00Z EC CONTINUES TO BRING A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16C ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THAT
THE EC APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET AND GEM LOOKING MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE ON MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. BY EVENING THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CEILINGS WILL
LIFT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MONITORING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TIMING OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WAS PLACED AT THE END OF
THE DFW TAF.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAD CLEARED OUT EARLIER THIS EVENING AND WAS
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA AT 0530Z. CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP FASTER THAN EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...BRINGING 11 PM/05Z TEMPERATURES DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF OBSERVED DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL CLOSE TO THIS AFTERNOONS DEW
POINTS WHICH TYPICALLY REPRESENT THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE WHEN
CONCERNED WITH RADIATIONAL FOG FORECASTING.
BASED ON OUR 00Z RAOB AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT...LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES WITH HEIGHT...SO DO NOT EXPECT AREAS OF
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP NEAR AREA TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. REGARDLESS...SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS LIKELY NEAR ALL
AREA TAF SITES...SO WENT AHEAD WITH MVFR VSBYS MENTIONED IN THE
10-15Z WINDOW FOR THE DFW AREA...AND 08 TO 15Z WINDOW FOR WACO
WITH THESE TAFS.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITH HEIGHT IS TOO
GREAT TO ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP...AND IF THAT IS THE CASE FOG
CAN BE REMOVED IN THE 09Z AMENDMENTS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY FALL TO IFR AT TIMES IF FOG DEVELOPS AS LIGHT WINDS MAY
LOCALLY INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW FOG. AT THIS POINT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST THE TAFS AS NECESSARY TO GAUGE IMPACTS
TO THE MORNING FLIGHT SCHEDULE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MENTIONED THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
AT THE END OF THE DFW TAF. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MOVING ACROSS DFW BY 10Z.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE AREA
AND MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE CLEAR BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRATUS
WILL TEND TO REDEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST...LIKELY ENCOMPASSING THE
WESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE
SUNRISE. AS A RESULT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT WHERE LOW TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
URBAN HEAT ISLAND AROUND THE METROPLEX. MOISTURE DEPTH LOOKS A BIT
TOO SHALLOW FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME GROUND FOG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE AN
EASIER TIME ERODING MONDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE TRUE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP STEADILY INTO THE 50S
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COMPLIMENTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THE TRUE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND
OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES AND AROUND MID TO
LATE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE 40S WITH SKIES CLOUDING OVER. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL RESULT IN POST
FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TUESDAY
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL PUT WIND
CHILLS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. LOWS
THERE WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. OTHERWISE EXPECT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EXPERIENCING THEIR FIRST FREEZE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM...AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY
IN THE 40S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIMITING
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. THE
EASTERN ZONES WILL BE THE COLDEST...AND THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL
HAVE A SHOT AT A FIRST FREEZE IF THEY MISS OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INVADE THE AREA THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED
SHOWERS...MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE VIRGA INITIALLY...BUT ENOUGH
COLUMN SATURATION SHOULD OCCUR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THESE LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM...BUT
HAVE GONE COLDER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE WITH LOW TO MID 50S.
MEANWHILE...WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NEARLY STEADY. HAVE RAISED
THESE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
WITH SURFACE TEMPS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MODERATE...POSSIBLY
EVEN RISING DURING THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS OF 30 TO 40
PERCENT LOOK GOOD BEFORE THE SYSTEM CLEARS US FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS BY SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 60S OR 70S.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD MORE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BACK TO THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER...RAIN CHANCES...AND WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE GFS SAYS IS WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY AND IS DRIER. WILL
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AND FEATURE LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST AS IT HAS PROVED TO BE SUPERIOR TO THE GFS LATELY.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LOOKS LIKELY BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 50 71 44 51 31 / 0 0 10 10 0
WACO, TX 46 71 51 57 31 / 0 0 5 10 0
PARIS, TX 44 69 45 50 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENTON, TX 45 71 41 50 24 / 0 0 20 10 0
MCKINNEY, TX 42 70 43 52 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
DALLAS, TX 50 71 45 52 31 / 0 0 10 10 0
TERRELL, TX 45 71 46 53 30 / 0 0 10 10 0
CORSICANA, TX 46 72 51 55 31 / 0 0 10 10 0
TEMPLE, TX 46 72 51 59 32 / 0 0 5 10 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 48 71 43 50 26 / 0 0 20 10 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.AVIATION...
KLBB DEWPOINT DEPRESSION NEAR ZERO THIS HOUR AND VERY CLOSE TO
DEVELOPING STRATUS LAYER. WE EXPECT LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AT KLBB...LIFTING SLIGHTLY NEAR DAYBREAK...THEN
BREAKING SWIFTLY BY MID-MORNING AS DRIER SOUTHWEST COMPONENT
PREVAILS. AT KCDS...THE CLOUD LAYER JUST WEST IN THE MID TO UPPER
IFR CIG HEIGHT RANGE IS MORE LIKELY TO FILL BACK EAST TO KCDS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THAN SURFACE SATURATION BASED ON PERSISTENT
TRENDS IN THE RAP THIS EVENING. CIG AT KCDS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT
EARLY MONDAY BEFORE BREAKING UP CLOSE TO MIDDAY. NEXT ON THE
HORIZON WILL BE THE SHARP CANADIAN COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD
TIMED PER LATEST WRF/NAM TO KCDS NEAR 04Z AND KLBB NEAR 06Z. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
UPDATE...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST FAVORED AREA INITIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS COUNTY. DENSE FOG
ADVISORY ISSUED VALID UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY. RMCQUEEN
AVIATION...
EARLIER TAF PACKAGE CONTINUED TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF AN LIFR
STRATUS LAYER AT KLBB CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LASTING UNTIL NEAR OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. CONDITIONS AT
KCDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR IFR/MVFR BREAK-OFF UNTIL LIFTING LATE
MONDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/
SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS WERE FINALLY RETREATING NORTHWARD...THOUGH THE NORTHEAST
ZONES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO RECEIVE INSOLATION BEFORE THE SUN
SETS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WERE ALREADY
FILLING IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND MAY CONTINUE TO
FILL IN ACROSS THE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE WE WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES OVERNIGHT
WILL MAINTAIN AND EVEN INCREASE THE SHALLOW MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE...AND COUPLED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
BOUT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. TOUGH TO SAY
EXACTLY HOW THICK THE FOG WILL BECOME...BUT WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AROUND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN MIND
WE HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE WEATHER GRIDS AND ALSO THE HWO. THINK FOG
WILL DEVELOP FIRST WHERE SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
/LIKELY THE NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES/...WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES /AND
LOWER T-TD SPREADS/WORK WITH A MAXIMIZED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. FOG
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS FAVORED AREA AS EARLY AS 3Z OR SO...WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AT RISK OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...EVEN AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOL...WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY ALLOW LOWS TO
DIP INTO THE 30S.
THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT/BREAK BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE FA EXPECTED TO SEE A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. OBVIOUSLY THE EXACT
DURATION/COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM WE
GET...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AREA
WIDE. BIG CHANGES WILL FOLLOW THOUGH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT VEERS IN
ADVANCE OF A RIDGE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CONTINENT.
LONG TERM...
COLD AIR THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
HAS BEEN LET LOOSE FROM THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE NRN
PLAINS...ALMOST TO SOUTH DAKOTA AS OF 20Z. PROBABLY NOT MUCH TO
SLOW IT SO PREFER THE FASTEST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN
STRENGTH OF THIS AIR MASS WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARD COLDER END OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MODEL QPF AND MOS POPS ARE OVERDONE.
BOTH PLAN VIEWS AND TIME-HEIGHTS SUGGEST BEST BET IS SOME DRIZZLE
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN TUESDAY AFTN.
SO WILL LOWER POPS SOME AND CONVERT MENTION OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
TO DRIZZLE WITH A MENTION OF FRZG DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE FREEZING TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...ATTM NO IMPACTS EXPECTED ATTM FROM THE POSSIBLE LIGHT
FREEZING PRECIP.
MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH AN OVERALL
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN WHAT BECOMES A MORE ZONAL BROADSCALE
PATTERN WITH EACH RUN. THAT WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF INCREASING
TEMPS MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH MEXMOS EXHIBITING THAT
TREND ON THE 00Z AND 12Z RUNS. FOR NOW WILL TREND FCST THAT
DIRECTION BUT LEAN TOWARD TEMPS OF ENSEMBLE MEAN. PRECIP CHANCES
REMAIN LOW DESPITE A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.
IN PART...THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW WILL KEEP MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE RETURN FROM OCCURRING WHILE THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF
THE TROUGHS SUGGEST FORCING MAY BE LIMITED. IF PRECIP DOES FALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP THAT PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST POPS BUT KEEP THEM BELOW 15 PCT
AND THUS KEEP PRECIP MENTION OUT OF THE FCST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 37 73 25 37 23 / 0 0 10 10 0
TULIA 43 70 27 38 22 / 0 0 10 10 0
PLAINVIEW 44 71 28 38 22 / 0 0 10 10 0
LEVELLAND 45 72 31 37 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
LUBBOCK 47 71 31 37 24 / 0 0 10 10 0
DENVER CITY 46 70 34 41 27 / 0 0 10 10 0
BROWNFIELD 46 71 33 37 26 / 0 0 10 10 0
CHILDRESS 48 75 32 41 21 / 0 0 10 10 0
SPUR 49 73 32 39 22 / 0 0 10 10 0
ASPERMONT 52 75 36 40 23 / 0 0 10 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>042.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
306 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...PUSHING
SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. RADAR SHOWED A BAND OF PRECIPITATION SETTING UP FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BACK INTO NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THIS BAND. EXPECT THIS
BAND TO PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS TO
AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A
PERIOD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE FRONT SHOW
FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING FROM 950 MB THROUGH 700 MB WITH WEAK
NEGATIVE EPV NOTED RIGHT AROUND 700 MB. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TRACE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA. ARCTIC AIR WILL INVADE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
-12 TO -15 C RANGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
IS UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURE STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OF -2.0. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL
RATHER CHILLY TODAY. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...INTO THE 20S BY THIS AFTERNOON THEN TUMBLING INTO THE TEENS
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT. HOWEVER SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL
BE COMMON TONIGHT LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY PROVIDING SUNNY
SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO AROUND 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL OF MID NOVEMBER WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND +7 ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOISTURE IS VERY
SLOW TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S.
THESE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH COULD LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND
IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE REGION. FORECAST
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE
THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT SO HAVE MOVED THE WIND SHIFT UP AN HOUR FOR BOTH SITES.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
ARE GOING TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT. STARTING TO SEE A FEW SITES
REPORTING SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WITH THE 11.00Z NAM AND 11.03Z RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW
THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF BRINGING IN MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE NAM
CAME IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER THAN THE 10.18Z RUN AND NOW SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM ALSO CAME IN STRONGER WITH THE PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WITH A STRETCHED OUT SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IT BRINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO. LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...CONCERNED THAT THIS
FORCING MAY BE TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH BEYOND FLURRIES OR SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE OMEGA IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRETTY WEAK WITH
THE STRONGER LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE
MVFR VISIBILITY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE LOW CEILINGS. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW GUSTY
WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE THEN LOOK TO REMAIN
THROUGH ALL OF MONDAY UNTIL SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SHOULD
DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THE MIXING. THE CEILINGS SHOULD GO BACK UP TO
VFR BY MID MORNING AS THE BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN
THE TREND IN THE FORECAST...BUT DID NOT HAVE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO
JUSTIFY ADDING A VFR CHANGE GROUP SO SHOWED THIS HAPPENING WHEN
THE WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1130 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE HIGH-IMPACT SUB-ADVISORY (HISA) EVENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SNOWFALL SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
PROBLEM...AS ACCUMS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...
ROADS THAT ARE WET FROM RAIN OR MELTING SNOW WILL QUICKLY ICE UP
AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. ISSUED AN SPS AND UPDATED THE HWO TO GET THE
WORD OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW
PRESSURE DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTH IS FINALLY EXITING
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY MOVING INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT QUICKLY ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...DROPPING
VSBYS TO 1 1/2SM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MANITOBA. WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMS AND TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE VORT PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT
INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS VERY GOOD ALONG THE
FRONT...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN AND
-DIVQ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE THOUGH...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT SHOULD SEE A
BKN BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PTYPE AS
MOSTLY SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHILE PRECIP WILL
LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN PRECIP
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH. COULD SEE A
DUSTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. MAX OMEGA WILL RESIDE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY INTENSE WITHIN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. BECAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING...TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S NORTH...BUT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST.
MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOOD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH OFF THE
MORNING LOWS. MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT DURING THE
MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS VERY
DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS PARTIALLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY...AND SHOULD LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. MORNING HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEST UPPER RIDGE/EAST TROF TRANSITIONS TO
WESTERN TROF AND EASTERN RIDGE. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS
PERIOD.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE LK SUPERIOR
SNOWBELT EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT WINDS BACK QUICKLY ENDING THREAT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE AT THE
SURFACE...ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM WEAK WAVE PRODUCES A PERIOD OF
LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN...LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI.
AS RIDGE MOVES OFF EAST COAST...DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX NOTED.
ANOTHER WAVE IN SW FLOW PRODUCES LARGER AREA OF RAIN...CLIPPING
THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SW FLOW WILL USHER IN MILDER TEMPS AFTER TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMS BY END OF WEEK. TEMP FORECAST A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING
GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS...FALLING
TEMPS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AT ATW/GRB. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1SM-2SM. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW...AND SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR A WHILE MONDAY MORNING. LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
NC WI THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1104 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT/MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...ALREADY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. TWO CONCERNS WITH THIS FRONT...JUST HOW COLD
IT WILL GET AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN.
FIRST...SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 3 C AT 00Z TONIGHT
TO -13 C BY 00Z SUN EVENING. 850 MB TEMP SREF ANOMALIES ARE AROUND
-1.5 MON-TUE. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE MIDNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT...WITH SLOWLY FALLING TO STEADY TEMPERATURES THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. THE FORECAST AREA IS STILL UNDER A SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
THOUGH...KEEPING WINDS UP A BIT...AND THUS NOT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE AND EXPECTING THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON. TUE WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID DECEMBER
RATHER THAN EARLY NOV.
SECOND...FOR PCPN...THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYS WELL
NORTH...BUT THERE IS SOME ELONGATED PIECES OF ENERGY THAT STRETCH
WESTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH...TRAILING THE SFC
COLD FRONT. A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING X-SECTION VIA THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
A DECENT SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE FRONT...STRONGEST
POST THE FRONT BETWEEN 12-18Z. SOME SLOPING QG CONVERGENCE ALSO WITH
THE SYSTEM...WHILE ALL THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THUS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z.
SOME HINTS OF HELP WITH LIFT FROM THE 300 MB JET...MOSTLY FOR
NORTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT.
PLENTY OF LIFT FOR PCPN...BUT HOW MUCH SATURATION IT WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH BRINGS A LOT OF QUESTION MARKS. THE NORTH-SOUTH X-SECTIONS
POINT TO A SMALL WINDOW OF DEEPER SATURATION...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLDER/DRIER PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL AIR QUICKLY DRIVES
INTO THE SATURATION...LIKELY PROVIDING AN EFFECTIVE DETERRENT TO
ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. BUT THERE IS A 3-4 HOUR WIND WHERE
EVERYTHING COMES TOGETHER AND LIGHT/VERY LIGHT PCPN WOULD BE LIKELY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW. DON/T SEE MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATION...WITH MINIMAL QPF IN LATEST MODEL RUNS AND SREF
PROBABILITIES. IT COULD END UP BEING A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS TO A TENTH OR
TWO. THE EARLY/MID MORNING TIME FRAME WOULD BE FAVORED BASED ON
CURRENT TIMING VIA THE GFS/NAM/EC.
ONE CAVEAT TO POINT OUT FOR THE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT. SOME MESO
MODELS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD COME OUT OF THE MASS OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WOULD BE TRIGGERED BY
INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH SOME 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. CHANCES WOULD STAY MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WILL NOT ADD TO THE FORECAST. IF IT
WOULD OCCUR...PROBABLY ONLY SPRINKLES. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIFTING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO
MORE ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A MORE PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERN FLOW OF AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO
THE SEASONABLE NORMALS...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE FLOW WILL STAY NORTH OR
SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND EC BOTH FAVOR SWINGING A
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SUN. WHILE THE BRUNT OF THE PCPN CHANCES
WITH THIS FEATURE WOULD CURRENTLY STAY SOUTH/EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ITS TRACK WOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING AT LEAST A SMALL
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS. COULD BE RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON TIMING.
THE GFS IS THE PERKIER OF THE MODELS. WILL STICK WITH CONSENSUS
SOLUTION FOR CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE
THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT SO HAVE MOVED THE WIND SHIFT UP AN HOUR FOR BOTH SITES.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHETHER THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW
ARE GOING TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT. STARTING TO SEE A FEW SITES
REPORTING SOME MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA. WITH THE 11.00Z NAM AND 11.03Z RAP CONTINUING TO SHOW
THE LOW LEVELS BECOMING SATURATED BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF BRINGING IN MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE NAM
CAME IN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER THAN THE 10.18Z RUN AND NOW SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM ALSO CAME IN STRONGER WITH THE PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WITH A STRETCHED OUT SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IT BRINGS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW STAYS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO. LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...CONCERNED THAT THIS
FORCING MAY BE TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH BEYOND FLURRIES OR SOME
VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE OMEGA IN THE LOW LEVELS IS PRETTY WEAK WITH
THE STRONGER LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE
MVFR VISIBILITY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE LOW CEILINGS. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TO ALLOW GUSTY
WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE THEN LOOK TO REMAIN
THROUGH ALL OF MONDAY UNTIL SUNSET WHEN THE INVERSION SHOULD
DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THE MIXING. THE CEILINGS SHOULD GO BACK UP TO
VFR BY MID MORNING AS THE BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER/CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN
THE TREND IN THE FORECAST...BUT DID NOT HAVE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO
JUSTIFY ADDING A VFR CHANGE GROUP SO SHOWED THIS HAPPENING WHEN
THE WINDS DIMINISH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIECK
LONG TERM....RIECK
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
523 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS
A WAYS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOME
SPOTTY FOG THAT HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE
AT TIMES.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FAIRLY HIGH...IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF THE VISIBILITY DROPS IN FOG.
EXPECT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MOIST
AIR THERE WILL BE SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
START TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FOG THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE
AND HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. THE HRRR AND SREF BOTH
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE. WILL START WITH THAT AND
WATCH.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THERE IS VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO WARM VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND
WILL PROBABLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MAINLY 10
TO 20 KNOTS SO THE WIND SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO.
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING OUT
OF THE OF THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE...AS THE HEART OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT
THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED SOME SINCE MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID
NOVEMBER LOWS.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WITH THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODIFY CLOSER TO...OR EVEN ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN JUST SPRINKLES.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND JUST BEYOND...MODEL DISCREPANCY
GROWS AND THE 00Z EC CONTINUES TO BRING A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16C ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THAT
THE EC APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET AND GEM LOOKING MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA ALREADY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER DARK TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
601 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE STRONG
COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CWA FROM NEAR IMT TO RRL. BEHIND
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO QUITE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
FILLED IN/EXPANDED MIDNIGHT ONWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FGEN
FORCING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI. LIGHT SNOW FALLING NORTH OF
FRONT...RAIN SOUTH. NO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED AS OF YET...THOUGH WEBCAMS
FAR NORTH LOOK LIKE GOOD INCH HAS FALLEN SO FAR.
MAIN CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW PROGRESSION
SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER. FORCING EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE TRIED
TO DEPICT TEMP DROP THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN NEAR STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SLOWER DROP IN TEMPS OVER FOX VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WILL UPDATE SPS SENT OUT EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS
WEST AND NORTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUE MAKING
CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LES OVER THE NORTH. HAVE STAYED WITH
CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING AND PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNOW
BELT FOR TODAY GIVEN DRY AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
COLD TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH APPARENT TEMPS
TODAY RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE NEAR ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH. LIGHTER WINDS LATER TUE WILL BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MDLS CONT TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPR RDGS OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD UPR TROF OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. MEAN FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WL SWITCH FROM NW TO SW AS
THIS UPR TROF DEVELOPS WHICH WL BRING MILDER...BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO NE WI TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN FCST ISSUE WL BE TRYING
TO DETERMINE BEST PERIOD TO MENTION PCPN CHCS AS THE MDLS DIFFER
ON WHICH BRANCH OF THE JET WL BECOME MORE DOMINANT.
THE SFC RDG AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TUE NGT. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPR
RDG WL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY TOWARD WI. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR NE WI UNDER MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND W-SW WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST THRU THE
NGT AND THIS WL HELP TO COUNTER THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
OVERHEAD. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO VALUES SEEN MON
NGT (GENERALLY TEENS INLAND...AROUND 20 NEAR LAKE MI). INCREASING
SW WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC HI OVER THE TN VALLEY AND A SFC LOW
MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO ON WED WL BRING A MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI.
8H TEMPS CONT TO RISE TO ALMOST +6C BY 00Z THU AND WITH SKIES
STILL MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPS WL BE ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS).
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED NGT AS A WEAK CDFNT
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. NO PCPN IS FCST INITIALLY DUE
TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER WI AT THE ONSET. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS THE PAST TWO NGTS. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY
SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. THIS APPROACHING CDFNT IS PROGGED
TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED...WAITING FOR A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF
(OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY) TO CATCH UP ON THU. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WL CONT TO GRADUALLY SATURATE...AS WELL AS SEEING
INCREASED LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM ENUF SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHO A
MIX IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE PCPN CAN REACH NRN WI.
THE WEAK CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION TO THEN PUSH ACROSS MOST
OF WI THU NGT AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF PCPN TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. FCST ISSUE WL BE ON PCPN TYPE AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S AND THE 8H 0C ISOTHERM HOVERS OVER NE WI. SINCE THE BULK
OF PCPN APPEARS TO MOVE THRU NE WI THU EVENING...ANTICIPATE PCPN TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER CNTRL AND E-CNTRL
WI. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY FRI...ALTHO THE LACK
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY KEEP MORE CLOUDS
AROUND THRU THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CDFNT AND WINDS
ALOFT ONLY VEERING TO THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ON FRI ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
LARGE MDL DIFFERENCES REMAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS/GEM FAVOR MORE
OF A NRN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING NE WI SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTS TO FOCUS ON A STRONGER SRN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING N-NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD INDICATE RAIN AS
THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD TAP MORE GULF MOISTURE AND THEREBY BRINGS HEAVIER
RAINS TO NE WI. UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED...
WL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR BOTH SAT NGT AND SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WILL BRING GUSTY NW WINDS...FALLING TEMPS AND SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE
SNOW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NC WI THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
SEES CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......TE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE STRONG
COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CWA FROM NEAR IMT TO RRL. BEHIND
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO QUITE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
FILLED IN/EXPANDED MIDNIGHT ONWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FGEN
FORCING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI. LIGHT SNOW FALLING NORTH OF
FRONT...RAIN SOUTH. NO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED AS OF YET...THOUGH WEBCAMS
FAR NORTH LOOK LIKE GOOD INCH HAS FALLEN SO FAR.
MAIN CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW PROGRESSION
SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER. FORCING EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE TRIED
TO DEPICT TEMP DROP THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN NEAR STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SLOWER DROP IN TEMPS OVER FOX VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WILL UPDATE SPS SENT OUT EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS
WEST AND NORTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUE MAKING
CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LES OVER THE NORTH. HAVE STAYED WITH
CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING AND PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNOW
BELT FOR TODAY GIVEN DRY AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
COLD TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH APPARENT TEMPS
TODAY RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE NEAR ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH. LIGHTER WINDS LATER TUE WILL BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MDLS CONT TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPR RDGS OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD UPR TROF OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. MEAN FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WL SWITCH FROM NW TO SW AS
THIS UPR TROF DEVELOPS WHICH WL BRING MILDER...BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO NE WI TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN FCST ISSUE WL BE TRYING
TO DETERMINE BEST PERIOD TO MENTION PCPN CHCS AS THE MDLS DIFFER
ON WHICH BRANCH OF THE JET WL BECOME MORE DOMINANT.
THE SFC RDG AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TUE NGT. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPR
RDG WL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY TOWARD WI. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR NE WI UNDER MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND W-SW WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST THRU THE
NGT AND THIS WL HELP TO COUNTER THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
OVERHEAD. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO VALUES SEEN MON
NGT (GENERALLY TEENS INLAND...AROUND 20 NEAR LAKE MI). INCREASING
SW WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC HI OVER THE TN VALLEY AND A SFC LOW
MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO ON WED WL BRING A MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI.
8H TEMPS CONT TO RISE TO ALMOST +6C BY 00Z THU AND WITH SKIES
STILL MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPS WL BE ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS).
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED NGT AS A WEAK CDFNT
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. NO PCPN IS FCST INITIALLY DUE
TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER WI AT THE ONSET. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS THE PAST TWO NGTS. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY
SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. THIS APPROACHING CDFNT IS PROGGED
TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED...WAITING FOR A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF
(OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY) TO CATCH UP ON THU. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WL CONT TO GRADUALLY SATURATE...AS WELL AS SEEING
INCREASED LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM ENUF SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHO A
MIX IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE PCPN CAN REACH NRN WI.
THE WEAK CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION TO THEN PUSH ACROSS MOST
OF WI THU NGT AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF PCPN TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. FCST ISSUE WL BE ON PCPN TYPE AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S AND THE 8H 0C ISOTHERM HOVERS OVER NE WI. SINCE THE BULK
OF PCPN APPEARS TO MOVE THRU NE WI THU EVENING...ANTICIPATE PCPN TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER CNTRL AND E-CNTRL
WI. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY FRI...ALTHO THE LACK
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY KEEP MORE CLOUDS
AROUND THRU THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CDFNT AND WINDS
ALOFT ONLY VEERING TO THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ON FRI ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
LARGE MDL DIFFERENCES REMAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS/GEM FAVOR MORE
OF A NRN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING NE WI SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTS TO FOCUS ON A STRONGER SRN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING N-NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD INDICATE RAIN AS
THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD TAP MORE GULF MOISTURE AND THEREBY BRINGS HEAVIER
RAINS TO NE WI. UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED...
WL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR BOTH SAT NGT AND SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NW WINDS...FALLING
TEMPS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD AT ATW/GRB. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1SM-2SM. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE SNOW...AND SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR A WHILE MONDAY MORNING. LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
NC WI THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEES AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
503 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013...correction
Much colder air will arrive tonight and modify only slightly
through Wednesday morning. A warming trend still looks likely
later this week as the mid week upper ridge shifts east of IL and
a southwest flow develops aloft. The warming will become more
noticeable next weekend as highs return to the 50s on Saturday and
around 60 on Sunday. Rainy conditions are forecast for at least
the last half of next weekend, as a long wave trough digs into the
Plains. The timing of that system is still uncertain, but another
cold push of air is projected behind that upper trough for either
Monday (GFS) or Tuesday (ECMWF).
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday.
The strong cold front will quickly depart to the southeast by
evening, with post-frontal rain quickly changing to snow. Most
upstream reports have indicated the snow melted as it fell, but
slippery conditions developed as air temps plummeted below
freezing. Some accidents have been reported due to icy spots on
roads. The band of snow seems to be expanding in depth between
19z-20z, and that could keep snow flying for up to 4 hours or so
once it develops. However, measurable snow is not really expected
for more than a few minutes unless a snow burst overcomes the warm
ground for a while. Visibilities have dipped to 1/4 mile in snow
at times upstream in Iowa/Wisconsin, mainly due to windy
conditions during the snowfall and not due to the heavy nature of
the snowfall.
The main axis of precipitation seems well correlated to the 850mb
frontogenesis. Radar images show a more pronounced band of
precipitation correlating to the change-over to snow, just
passing over DVN at 20z. LAPS soundings show the change-over also
correlating to a 925mb temp of -2C. Timing those conditions and
that band into our area would put the change to snow in GBG around
330 pm, PIA at 430 pm, BMI by 515 pm, Lincoln at 6 pm, CMI/SPI at
630 pm, Effingham around 9 pm, and Lawrenceville around 1015 pm.
Depending on the progression of 850mb Fgen, snow will generally
last from 2 to 4 hours after those times. Areas southwest of a
line from Rushville to Effingham will see weaker forcing, based on
the latest RAP output, which should limit precip amounts in those
areas.
Subsidence and dry air should help to shut down the preciptation
in our southeastern areas between 2-3 am. Skies should begin to
clear about 4 to 5 hours after the precipitation ends, based on
satellite trends and forecast RH in the low to mid levels. Lows
will have a chance to drop into the upper teens W of I-55, with
low to mid 20s elsewhere.
Dry and unseasonably cold air will limit highs on Tuesday to the
low 30s near GBG and upper 30s near LWV. Clear skies and light
winds under the surface ridge axis on Tuesday night should allow
all areas to drop into the teens for lows. Some warming in the
850mb layer should help to temper lows from dropping into the
10-15 deg range. A couple of traditional cold spots may end up
that cold.
Wednesday will see the surface ridge slide east of IL and rising
heights aloft aiding in warming through a deep column. The air
temps near the ground will be slow to rebound, but a steady rise
by 5 degrees for highs is expected Wed and Thursday.
LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday.
Northern and southern stream jet interactions will aid in carving
a trough in the Rockies and western Plains on Thursday. Increasing
southwest flow in the lee of the trough will push moisture and clouds
into Illinois Thursday night. We could see enough rising motion
from warm advection to generate a few rain showers west of I-55.
Chance PoPs were only included west of Rushville to Lacon in the
NW. The rain may change to snow north of Peoria late Thur night,
but precip amounts will be light and no accumulation is expected.
A 500mb shortwave and the corresponding surface trough will pass
across IL on Friday, with additional rain showers possible. We
only used slight chance PoPs for Friday as the system will be
weakening as it pushes into a ridge over the eastern states.
The upper trough across the western half of the lower 48 is
expected to amplify next weekend, increasing the moisture return
into IL. A low level jet is expected to intensify by Sunday
morning and nose into IL, triggering more widespread showers
starting as early as Saturday night. Showers may linger through
Monday per the GFS, or through Tues if the slower ECMWF verifies.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 441 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2013
Transition zone between precip phases has moved south of KPIA and
should be south of KBMI by TAF valid time and the rest of the
terminals soon after. Vsbys ahead of the snow are generally MVFR
with occasional IFR. Once the precip transitions to snow, vsbys
generally fall to IFR. There may be a brief period of vsbys blo 1
nm during the periods of more substantial snow. CIGs are IFR at
all terminals and should remain so until precip ends in the 02-04z
time frame.
The main axis of the shortwave should move across Illinois later
tonight and fairly rapid clearing should be likely following its passage.
Winds will be gusty out of the north through much of the night as
striong 1040mb+ high moves quickly into the middle Missouri
Valley. As the high center pushes into Kansas and Missouri Tuesday
afternoon, winds should drop off and begin to gain a westerly component.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
413 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 22Z...
* SNOW ENDING AROUND 23Z AT ORD...00Z AT MDW.
* IFR CIGS QUICKLY LIFTING THROUGH MVFR AFTER SNOW ENDS...WITH VFR
CIGS BY 2330Z AT ORD...0030Z AT MDW.
* STRONG/GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY TURNING BACK NORTH/
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 23Z-01Z.
* GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 22Z...
BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS STEADILY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN IL
WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. A LAKE ENHANCED
BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS A FEW HOURS AGO SHIFTING
WINDS NORTH/NORTHEAST. WINDS STILL FROM 010 ON THE ONE MINUTE DATA
AT ORD/MDW. EXPECT WIND DIRECTIONS TO SLOWLY SHIFT BACK TO NORTH/
NORTHWEST AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REMAIN
GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL
AND SOUTHERN WI SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING...THUS GUSTS COULD BECOME
LESS PREVAILING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CMS
PREVIOUS 18Z DISCUSSION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR RFD WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND GYY BY THE 21Z
TIME FRAME. VISIBILITY OF 3-5 MILES IN THIS RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED BUT WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1-2
MILES IN THE SNOW. BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW CANT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN PREVAILING VIS STAYING AROUND 1-2
MILES. THIS SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AROUND 23Z...BUT LINGER OVER
THE GYY TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD COME RATHER CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF GYY...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF/STRAY SNOW SHOWER
TO INCH CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DROPPING
AT THIS HOUR AS WELL...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. DO EXPECT A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS WILL IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEPARTING PRECIP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT THEN IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY EVENING. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASED SPEEDS/GUSTS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 22Z...
* HIGH FOR SNOW/VIS/CIG AND IMPROVEMENT TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
* MEDIUM FOR WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTIONS/GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. JUST EAST OF TERMINALS MVFR CIGS AND
PSBL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THEN CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AFT DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...CHC OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...PSBL MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011...9 PM MONDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN
UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
400 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW OVER THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES.
* IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* NNW WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR RFD WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND GYY BY THE 21Z
TIME FRAME. VISIBILITY OF 3-5 MILES IN THIS RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED BUT WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1-2
MILES IN THE SNOW. BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW CANT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN PREVAILING VIS STAYING AROUND 1-2
MILES. THIS SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AROUND 23Z...BUT LINGER OVER
THE GYY TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD COME RATHER CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF GYY...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF/STRAY SNOW SHOWER
TO INCH CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DROPPING
AT THIS HOUR AS WELL...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. DO EXPECT A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS WILL IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEPARTING PRECIP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT THEN IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY EVENING. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASED SPEEDS/GUSTS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TRENDS/TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. JUST EAST OF TERMINALS MVFR CIGS AND
PSBL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THEN CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AFT DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...CHC OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...PSBL MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
338 PM CST
A COLD FRONT PUSHED DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE MI DURING LATE
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE
NW AND N WITH 35 KT GALES. WINDS HAD FALLEN TO A BIT BELOW GALE
FORCE ON THE N AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AT MID
AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO ON THE S PORTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI WILL QUICKLY MOVE S DOWN THE LAKE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE BACK TO 35 KT GALES BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING TO DO SO DURING TUESDAY. WINDS BACK TO
W TUE NIGHT AND SW WED...INCREASING TO 35-40 KT GALES AS A LARGE
HIGH MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
THU. SW GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED OVER ALBERTA TUE DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY E TO JAMES BAY BY THU MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES MEETING OR EXCEEDING OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA WILL ALONG THE IL SHORE UNTIL LATE TUE EVENING...AND
INTO OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY WED AFTERNOON.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...INZ002-INZ011...9 PM MONDAY TO NOON
TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
301 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND MODIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS LIKELY
LATER THIS WEEK AS THE MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF IL AND
A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE WARMING WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 50S ON SATURDAY AND
AROUND 60 ON SUNDAY. RAINY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT ANOTHER
COLD PUSH OF AIR IS PROJECTED BEHIND THAT UPPER TROUGH FOR EITHER
MONDAY (GFS) OR TUESDAY (ECMWF).
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING, WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW. MOST
UPSTREAM REPORTS HAVE INDICATED THE SNOW MELTED AS IT FELL, BUT
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AS AIR TEMPS PLUMMETED BELOW
FREEZING. SOME ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE TO ICY SPOTS ON
ROADS. THE BAND OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE EXPANDING IN DEPTH BETWEEN
19Z-20Z, AND THAT COULD KEEP SNOW FLYING FOR UP TO 4 HOURS OR SO
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE SNOW IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES UNLESS A SNOW BURST OVERCOMES THE WARM
GROUND FOR A WHILE. VISIBILITIES HAVE DIPPED TO 1/4 MILE IN SNOW AT
TIMES UPSTREAM IN IOWA/WISCONSIN, MAINLY DUE TO WINDY CONDITIONS
DURING THE SNOWFALL AND NOT DUE TO THE HEAVY NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL.
THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS WELL CORRELATED TO THE 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR IMAGES SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CORRELATING TO THE CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW, JUST
PASSING OVER DVN AT 20Z. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CHANGE-OVER ALSO
CORRELATING TO A 925MB TEMP OF -2C. TIMING THOSE CONDITIONS AND
THAT BAND INTO OUR AREA WOULD PUT THE CHANGE TO SNOW IN GBG AROUND
330 PM, PIA AT 430 PM, BMI BY 515 PM, LINCOLN AT 6 PM, CMI/SPI AT
630 PM, EFFINGHAM AROUND 9 PM, AND LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 1015 PM.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF 850MB FGEN, SNOW WILL GENERALLY
LAST FROM 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THOSE TIMES. AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO EFFINGHAM WILL SEE WEAKER FORCING, BASED ON
THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT, SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOWER IN THOSE
AREAS.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD HELP TO SHUT DOWN THE PRECIPTATION
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 2-3 AM. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS, BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND FORECAST RH IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. LOWS
WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS W OF I-55, WITH
LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW 30S NEAR GBG AND UPPER 30S NEAR LWV. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
ALL AREAS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR LOWS. SOME WARMING IN THE
850MB LAYER SHOULD HELP TO TEMPER LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE
10-15 DEG RANGE. A COUPLE OF TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY END UP
THAT COLD.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE EAST OF IL AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AIDING IN WARMING THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN. THE AIR
TEMPS NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND, BUT A STEADY RISE
BY 5 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IS EXPECTED WED AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET INTERACTIONS WILL AID IN CARVING
A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO ILLINOIS THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH RISING MOTION
FROM WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF I-55.
CHANCE POPS WERE ONLY INCLUDED WEST OF RUSHVILLE TO LACON IN THE
NW. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF PEORIA LATE THUR NIGHT,
BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS IL ON FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WE
ONLY USED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASING THE MOISTURE RETURN
INTO IL. A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND NOSE INTO IL, TRIGGERING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY PER THE GFS, OR THROUGH TUES IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1120 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST STARTING
TO COME THROUGH KBMI/KSPI, AND SHOULD GO THROUGH KDEC/KCMI OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS START TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT, AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LIKELY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS START TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND KPIA/KBMI BETWEEN 21-24Z AND FROM KSPI-KCMI
AROUND 00Z BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 1000-1500 FEET WITH THE PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH MAY
DIP BELOW 1000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE EVENING, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RATHER SHARP CLEARING LINE, CURRENTLY EVIDENT FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, SHOULD COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT
SOME CLOUDINESS CONTINUING LATER NEAR KCMI, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST
INDIANA.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
305 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND MODIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WARMING TREND STILL LOOKS LIKELY
LATER THIS WEEK AS THE MID WEEK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF IL AND
A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. THE WARMING WILL BECOME MORE
NOTICEABLE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 50S ON SATURDAY AND
AROUND 60 ON SUNDAY. RAINY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THAT SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT ANOTHER
COLD PUSH OF AIR IS PROJECTED BEHIND THAT UPPER TROUGH FOR EITHER
MONDAY (GFS) OR TUESDAY (ECMWF).
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING, WITH POST-FRONTAL RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW. MOST
UPSTREAM REPORTS HAVE INDICATED THE SNOW MELTED AS IT FELL, BUT
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS DEVELOPED AS AIR TEMPS PLUMMETED BELOW
FREEZING. SOME ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE TO ICY SPOTS ON
ROADS. THE BAND OF SNOW SEEMS TO BE EXPANDING IN DEPTH BETWEEN
19Z-20Z, AND THAT COULD KEEP SNOW FLYING FOR UP TO 4 HOURS OR SO
ONCE IT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, MEASURABLE SNOW IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED
FOR MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES UNLESS A SNOW BURST OVERCOMES THE WARM
GROUND FOR A WHILE. VISIBILITIES HAVE DIPPED TO 1/4 MILE IN SNOW
AT TIMES UPSTREAM IN IOWA/WISCONSIN, MAINLY DUE TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE SNOWFALL AND NOT DUE TO THE HEAVY NATURE OF
THE SNOWFALL.
THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS WELL CORRELATED TO THE 850MB
FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR IMAGES SHOW A MORE PRONOUNCED BAND OF
PRECIPITATION CORRELATING TO THE CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW, JUST
PASSING OVER DVN AT 20Z. LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CHANGE-OVER ALSO
CORRELATING TO A 925MB TEMP OF -2C. TIMING THOSE CONDITIONS AND
THAT BAND INTO OUR AREA WOULD PUT THE CHANGE TO SNOW IN GBG AROUND
330 PM, PIA AT 430 PM, BMI BY 515 PM, LINCOLN AT 6 PM, CMI/SPI AT
630 PM, EFFINGHAM AROUND 9 PM, AND LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 1015 PM.
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF 850MB FGEN, SNOW WILL GENERALLY
LAST FROM 2 TO 4 HOURS AFTER THOSE CHANGE-OVER TIMES. AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM RUSHVILLE TO EFFINGHAM WILL SEE WEAKER
FORCING, BASED ON THE LATEST RAP OUTPUT, SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE LOWER IN THOSE AREAS.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SHOULD HELP TO SHUT DOWN THE PRECIPTATION
IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BETWEEN 2-3 AM. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO
CLEAR ABOUT 4 TO 5 HOURS AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS, BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND FORECAST RH IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. LOW
TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS W OF I-55,
WITH LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL LIMIT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO THE
LOW 30S NEAR GBG AND UPPER 30S NEAR LWV. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ON TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
ALL AREAS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR LOWS. SOME WARMING IN THE
850MB LAYER SHOULD HELP TO TEMPER LOWS FROM DROPPING INTO THE
10-15 DEG RANGE. A COUPLE OF TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS MAY END UP
THAT COLD.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE EAST OF IL AND RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AIDING IN WARMING THROUGH A DEEP COLUMN. THE AIR
TEMPS NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND, BUT A STEADY RISE
BY 5 DEGREES FOR HIGHS IS EXPECTED WED AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JET INTERACTIONS WILL AID IN CARVING
A TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
INTO ILLINOIS THURSDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH RISING MOTION
FROM WARM ADVECTION TO GENERATE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF I-55.
CHANCE POPS WERE ONLY INCLUDED WEST OF RUSHVILLE TO LACON IN THE
NW. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH OF PEORIA LATE THUR NIGHT,
BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
A 500MB SHORTWAVE AND THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS IL ON FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WE
ONLY USED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES INTO A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND, INCREASING THE MOISTURE RETURN
INTO IL. A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND NOSE INTO IL, TRIGGERING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY PER THE GFS, OR THROUGH TUES IF THE SLOWER ECMWF VERIFIES.
SHIMON
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1120 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST STARTING
TO COME THROUGH KBMI/KSPI, AND SHOULD GO THROUGH KDEC/KCMI OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS START TO PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT, AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE AREA, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LIKELY. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD START SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS START TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND KPIA/KBMI BETWEEN 21-24Z AND FROM KSPI-KCMI
AROUND 00Z BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO ALL SNOW. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 1000-1500 FEET WITH THE PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH MAY
DIP BELOW 1000 FEET IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE EVENING, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RATHER SHARP CLEARING LINE, CURRENTLY EVIDENT FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, SHOULD COME THROUGH THE TAF SITES LATE THIS
EVENING, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT
SOME CLOUDINESS CONTINUING LATER NEAR KCMI, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
ON THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST
INDIANA.
GEELHART
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
259 PM CST
SEVERAL NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THE EVENING...WITH
LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE EVENING IMPACTING PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST INDIANA TO SOME DEGREE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY AS PART OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPREADING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGING IS BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH YET ANOTHER TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JAMES BAY UPPER LOW IS
MOVING INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING IT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HAVING EXITED THE SOUTHERN CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
IS SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS EVENING...CURRENT POST FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID EVENING OR SO. FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOWFALL PRODUCING VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE AS
THE COLDER AIR SPREAD SOUTH...WITH AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY RAIN
CHANGING OVER. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND OTHER NON PAVED SURFACES AND EXPECT THAT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO THROUGH SUNSET. PRECIP MAY END
BEFORE THIS OCCURS IN SOME AREAS BUT THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL FOR
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON VARIOUS SURFACES TO FREEZE BEFORE DRYING SO
MOTORISTS AND PEDESTRIANS SHOULD BE ALERT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW
PLACEMENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA. NORTHERLY
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION BRINGING H85
TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND -12 C CREATING LAKE TO H85 DELTA-TS OF 20+C.
GENERATING LAKE EFFECT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...ITS THE PLACEMENT
THAT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WILL
START OUT NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND
NORTHERLY SOUTH AS THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN. WITH
TIME...THE MEAN FLOW WILL GAIN MORE OF A WEST COMPONENT/THOUGH STILL
REMAINING NORTHWESTERLY OVERALL/ INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE INITIAL
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN SHORE BASED ON THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND
FAIRLY STRONG SPEEDS FOCUSING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO SHORE.
THE BAND MAY ARC SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE. AM CONCERNED BY THE NEARLY DUE NORTH DIRECTION
THIS EVENING BUT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ORGANIZED BANDS MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN PORTER COUNTY AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF JASPER COUNTY SEEING A PERIOD OF DECENT SNOWFALL LATER
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE BAND FURTHER EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN BULLISH ON KEEPING THE BAND CLOSER TO THE MICHIGAN
SHORE AND INTO LAPORTE AND BERRIEN COUNTIES AND EVEN POINTS FURTHER
EAST...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY IN PORTER/JASPER. AM WONDERING IF
THEY ARE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH ON HOW FAR EAST THE FOCUS BECOMES.
WITH A STRONG NORTH COMPONENT HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE BAND
DEVELOPING ALL THE WAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LAKE AND MORE OR LESS
STAYING THERE UNLESS TIMING OF ACTUAL PLUME DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED
UNTIL WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHWEST. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF
THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE FALLS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS THOUGHT
PROCESS. WHILE THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE...WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR PORTER AND JASPER
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PERIOD OF
BEST HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF EACH
COUNTY. SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE QUITE INTENSE ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL
INCHES PER HOUR BUT THE DURATION IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. COMBINE
THIS WITH GUSTY WINDS FAIRLY ROUGH CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ASSUMING
THE BAND AFFECTS THESE AREAS. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING LEVEL
SNOWS OVER 6 INCHES BUT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUPPORT FOR LESSER
AMOUNTS HAVE A HARD TIME GOING WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT.
FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT THE BAND WILL INITIALLY IMPACT PORTER/JASPER
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE GOING WITH AN
ADVISORY THAN JUST KEEPING THE WATCH. THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. BEYOND THAT...LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S TONIGHT WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 30 NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ENDING EAST TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE
IT INTO LOW TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...DID NOT HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF TIME TO LOOK
FURTHER AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SETTLING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW MODEST WARM ADVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
CONSERVATIVE WITH UPPER 30S HIGHS WITH ANY SNOWPACK IN NW INDIANA
LIKELY KEEPING THINGS IN THE 30S REGARDLESS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
BROKEN DOWN AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AS A FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS AND BRING A WEAK COOL
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW AT NIGHT AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
SPREADING IN LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES BUT ECMWF/GFS ARE AT
ODDS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS. A WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT THIS MAY BE BRIEF IF A FASTER
SOLUTION PANS OUT. EITHER WAY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW POINTS TOWARD
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
IF THE SLOWER SOLUTION PANS OUT.
MDB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW OVER THE
NEXT HOUR...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES.
* IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
* NNW WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR RFD WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW MIX QUICKLY
TRANSITIONED OVER TO ALL SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
REMAINING TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND GYY BY THE 21Z
TIME FRAME. VISIBILITY OF 3-5 MILES IN THIS RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED BUT WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO FALL TO 1-2
MILES IN THE SNOW. BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW CANT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONCE AGAIN PREVAILING VIS STAYING AROUND 1-2
MILES. THIS SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF BY AROUND 23Z...BUT LINGER OVER
THE GYY TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD COME RATHER CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. ANY HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF GYY...BUT WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF/STRAY SNOW SHOWER
TO INCH CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY DROPPING
AT THIS HOUR AS WELL...WITH MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. DO EXPECT A
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN CEILINGS WILL IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DEPARTING PRECIP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT CEILINGS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT THEN IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY EARLY EVENING. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO INCREASE TODAY...BUT WITH INCREASED SPEEDS/GUSTS STILL
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH PRECIP TRENDS/TIMING THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. JUST EAST OF TERMINALS MVFR CIGS AND
PSBL LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHC OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THEN CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AFT DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY...CHC OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS.
SUNDAY...PSBL MVFR CIGS WITH CHC OF RAIN.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
201 AM CST
MARINE CONCERNS...
GALES DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE...THEN OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE.
FOR MOST OF THE ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER GALES...WHILE EAST OF GARY GALES WILL
DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
GALES COME TO AN END MID-MORNING TUE...ALTHOUGH FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS HAZARDOUS WAVES WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUE EVENING WITH
THE VERY COLD AIR SLIDING ACROSS THE LAKE AND PERSISTING NORTHWEST
WINDS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
MORNING...WITH WINDS QUICKLY FLIPPING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
THEN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN GALES
TO 40 KT. COULD SEE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE A PERIOD
OF GALES TO 45 KT THIS AFTN. FURTHER SOUTH THE GRADIENT IS
SLIGHTLY LESS THIS AFTN/EVE...SO HAVE GALES BETWEEN 35-40KT.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PROVIDE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE GRADIENT AND ALLOWS THE WINDS TO DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH FLOW
TURNING WEST THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WED. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND GALES FOR THE OPEN
WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THUR.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...INZ002...9 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 PM
TUESDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 3 AM
WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1246 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT AREAS NEAR HIGHWAY 10
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 131. ONE TO LOCALLY
FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATES WILL WARM TO MAINLY 45 TO 50.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
SO FAR (11 AM) THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE IS
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NORTH OF ROUTE 10 YET. THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE IS NEAR ROUTE
20. I EXPECT THE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH RR QUAD OF
TO CONTINUE PROGRESS SOUTH WITH TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AFTER 2 PM
AND REACH THE I-96 AREA BY 4 PM AND I-96 BY 6 PM.
AS FOR THE SNOW...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD REACH THE GRR AREA
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3 PM... SO MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WET SNOW
BEFORE IT END. I DO NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OUR ADVISORY
AREA. UP THERE...SINCE UP TO 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN... AND
THERE SEEMS TO BE A LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW MOVING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THEY COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
BRINGING THE STORM TOTAL TO 5 INCHES.
I MAY NEED SOME SORT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN
AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY AS LATE MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE SNOW BAND MAY MOVE ON SHORE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THE SNOW
BAND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS TO
REACH WELL INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA NEAR US-131 SO I MAY NEED AN
ADVISORY UP THERE TOO FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREEN BAY REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GRR CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER IT PASSES WE SHOULD WET BULB DOWN
TO SWITCH OVER THE ALL SNOW.
HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE...OSCEOLA
AND CLARE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SLUSHY/SNOW COVERED ROADS THERE...AND
BEING THE FIRST SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS TO ADVISORY
DRIVERS. WILL RUN IT THROUGH 3 PM AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LULL BETWEEN THE END OF THE SYNOPTIC PCPN AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
LAKE EFFECT THAT KICKS IN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES ARE INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER
ABOUT 03Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW IS 340-355 THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO THIS
FAVORS AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131. THERE SHOULD BE A DOMINATE BAND SET
UP AND DEPENDING ON IT/S EXACT ORIENTATION SOME AREAS NEAR THE
POINTS AND WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES COULD GET A DECENT
SNOW. I HAVE ONE TO FOUR INCHES INDICATED FOR NOW. WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE EFFECT PORTION OF THIS EVENT AS IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WE HAVE TIME
TO FINE TUNE THINGS.
THE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE
NORMAL AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LARGE
DRY SURFACE HIGH BECOMES PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
A BIG NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
BIGGEST ITEMS OF INTEREST WITH THE 18Z FCSTS WILL BE CIG/VSBY
TRENDS ALONG WITH PCPN TYPE FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...THEN CLOUD
AND LAKE EFFECT TRENDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN IS ONGOING OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 1730Z WITH KMKG
JUST CHANGING TO SNOW AT 17Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING FOUND ALONG
THE PCPN CHANGEOVER LINE THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KGRR JUST AFTER
18Z. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR ACROSS THE I-94
TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL CHANGE TO COME FROM DUE NORTH ALSO AND
GUST A BIT TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OR SO.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD PCPN IS JUST COMING INTO KLDM AS OF
1740Z. WE EXPECT THIS TO ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AND CLEAR
THE KJXN AREA LAST AROUND 23Z THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS THE PCPN ENDS.
A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF MODERATE TO INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE JUST OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS
THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH. INLAND LOCATIONS WILL NOT
BE AFFECTED...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF KMKG. THIS COULD
IMPACT ANY FLIGHTS TAKING OFF OR COMING INTO KMKG FROM THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...A BKN STRATOCU DECK BASED AROUND 3500 FT SHOULD RULE
FOR MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT AND THROUGH 18Z TUE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 831 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
I UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY (830 AM) ONLY ONE STATION NEAR
GREEN BAY HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD ADVECTION OVER A RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN (50 DEGREE) IT
WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE THE GALES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
NO ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ038>040.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1217 PM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT AREAS NEAR HIGHWAY 10
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 131. ONE TO LOCALLY
FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATES WILL WARM TO MAINLY 45 TO 50.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
SO FAR (11 AM) THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE IS
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NORTH OF ROUTE 10 YET. THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE IS NEAR ROUTE
20. I EXPECT THE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH RR QUAD OF
TO CONTINUE PROGRESS SOUTH WITH TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AFTER 2 PM
AND REACH THE I-96 AREA BY 4 PM AND I-96 BY 6 PM.
AS FOR THE SNOW...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD REACH THE GRR AREA
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3 PM... SO MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WET SNOW
BEFORE IT END. I DO NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OUR ADVISORY
AREA. UP THERE...SINCE UP TO 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN... AND
THERE SEEMS TO BE A LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW MOVING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THEY COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
BRINGING THE STORM TOTAL TO 5 INCHES.
I MAY NEED SOME SORT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN
AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY AS LATE MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE SNOW BAND MAY MOVE ON SHORE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THE SNOW
BAND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS TO
REACH WELL INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA NEAR US-131 SO I MAY NEED AN
ADVISORY UP THERE TOO FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREEN BAY REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GRR CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER IT PASSES WE SHOULD WET BULB DOWN
TO SWITCH OVER THE ALL SNOW.
HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE...OSCEOLA
AND CLARE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SLUSHY/SNOW COVERED ROADS THERE...AND
BEING THE FIRST SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS TO ADVISORY
DRIVERS. WILL RUN IT THROUGH 3 PM AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LULL BETWEEN THE END OF THE SYNOPTIC PCPN AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
LAKE EFFECT THAT KICKS IN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES ARE INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER
ABOUT 03Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW IS 340-355 THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO THIS
FAVORS AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131. THERE SHOULD BE A DOMINATE BAND SET
UP AND DEPENDING ON IT/S EXACT ORIENTATION SOME AREAS NEAR THE
POINTS AND WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES COULD GET A DECENT
SNOW. I HAVE ONE TO FOUR INCHES INDICATED FOR NOW. WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE EFFECT PORTION OF THIS EVENT AS IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WE HAVE TIME
TO FINE TUNE THINGS.
THE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE
NORMAL AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LARGE
DRY SURFACE HIGH BECOMES PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
A BIG NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND QUICKLY TOWARD MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS MORNING AS RAIN DEVELOPS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WHICH MAY LOWER THE VSBYS INTO IFR CATEGORY
FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
ICING IN THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY TODAY AS THIS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW
MOVES THROUGH. FREEZING LEVELS DESCENDING FROM 4000-6000 FT AT
12Z... TO AROUND 2500 FT AT 15Z... TO 1000 FT OR LESS AFTER 18Z.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN RATHER STRONG/GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 831 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
I UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY (830 AM) ONLY ONE STATION NEAR
GREEN BAY HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT GIVEN THE STRENGHT OF THE
COLD ADVECTION OVER A RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN (50 DEGREE) IT
WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE THE GALES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
NO ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ038>040.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1115 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS
WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT AREAS NEAR HIGHWAY 10
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY MAINLY WEST OF U.S. 131. ONE TO LOCALLY
FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AND TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATES WILL WARM TO MAINLY 45 TO 50.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 11115 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
SO FAR (11 AM) THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE IS
JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT THE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
REMAIN NORTH OF ROUTE 10 YET. THE RAIN TO SNOW LINE IS NEAR ROUTE
20. I EXPECT THE THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH RR QUAD OF
TO CONTINUE PROGRESS SOUTH WITH TIME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AFTER 2 PM
AND REACH THE I-96 AREA BY 4 PM AND I-96 BY 6 PM.
AS FOR THE SNOW...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD REACH THE GRR AREA
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 3 PM... SO MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WET SNOW
BEFORE IT END. I DO NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OUR ADVISORY
AREA. UP THERE...SINCE UP TO 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN... AND
THERE SEEMS TO BE A LAKE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW MOVING SOUTH OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...THEY COULD SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES
BRINGING THE STORM TOTAL TO 5 INCHES.
I MAY NEED SOME SORT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR VAN BUREN
AND POSSIBLY EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY AS LATE MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THE SNOW BAND MAY MOVE ON SHORE OVERNIGHT. ALSO THE SNOW
BAND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS TO
REACH WELL INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA NEAR US-131 SO I MAY NEED AN
ADVISORY UP THERE TOO FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREEN BAY REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GRR CWA BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER IT PASSES WE SHOULD WET BULB DOWN
TO SWITCH OVER THE ALL SNOW.
HAVE DECIDED TO POST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAKE...OSCEOLA
AND CLARE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATES LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SLUSHY/SNOW COVERED ROADS THERE...AND
BEING THE FIRST SNOW...THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS TO ADVISORY
DRIVERS. WILL RUN IT THROUGH 3 PM AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A
LULL BETWEEN THE END OF THE SYNOPTIC PCPN AND THE BEGINNING OF THE
LAKE EFFECT THAT KICKS IN TONIGHT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES ARE INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS A SHORT WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER
ABOUT 03Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MEAN FLOW IS 340-355 THROUGH THIS PERIOD...SO THIS
FAVORS AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131. THERE SHOULD BE A DOMINATE BAND SET
UP AND DEPENDING ON IT/S EXACT ORIENTATION SOME AREAS NEAR THE
POINTS AND WESTERN ALLEGAN AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES COULD GET A DECENT
SNOW. I HAVE ONE TO FOUR INCHES INDICATED FOR NOW. WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE EFFECT PORTION OF THIS EVENT AS IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY TOWARD MIDNIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WE HAVE TIME
TO FINE TUNE THINGS.
THE SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING IN. TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE LOW AND MID 40S FOR WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES MODERATING ABOVE
NORMAL AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LARGE
DRY SURFACE HIGH BECOMES PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT
ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT.
A BIG NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... SO INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND QUICKLY TOWARD MVFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS MORNING AS RAIN DEVELOPS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A 1-2
HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WHICH MAY LOWER THE VSBYS INTO IFR CATEGORY
FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.
ICING IN THE CLOUDS IS LIKELY TODAY AS THIS BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW
MOVES THROUGH. FREEZING LEVELS DESCENDING FROM 4000-6000 FT AT
12Z... TO AROUND 2500 FT AT 15Z... TO 1000 FT OR LESS AFTER 18Z.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...
ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ALONG THE LK MI SHORELINE INCLUDING MKG.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 22 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN RATHER STRONG/GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 831 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
I UPDATED THE GRIDS TO SHOW GALES IN THE NEAR SHORE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY (830 AM) ONLY ONE STATION NEAR
GREEN BAY HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BUT GIVEN THE STRENGHT OF THE
COLD ADVECTION OVER A RELATIVELY WARM LAKE MICHIGAN (50 DEGREE) IT
WOULD SEEM WE SHOULD SEE THE GALES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EST MON NOV 11 2013
NO ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ038>040.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MEADE
AVIATION...MEADE
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1241 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INDICATE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN ISOLATED FLURRIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS
A WAYS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOME
SPOTTY FOG THAT HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE
AT TIMES.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FAIRLY HIGH...IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF THE VISIBILITY DROPS IN FOG.
EXPECT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MOIST
AIR THERE WILL BE SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
START TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FOG THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE
AND HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. THE HRRR AND SREF BOTH
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE. WILL START WITH THAT AND
WATCH.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THERE IS VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO WARM VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND
WILL PROBABLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MAINLY 10
TO 20 KNOTS SO THE WIND SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO.
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING OUT
OF THE OF THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE...AS THE HEART OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT
THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED SOME SINCE MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID
NOVEMBER LOWS.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WITH THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODIFY CLOSER TO...OR EVEN ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN JUST SPRINKLES.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND JUST BEYOND...MODEL DISCREPANCY
GROWS AND THE 00Z EC CONTINUES TO BRING A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16C ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THAT
THE EC APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET AND GEM LOOKING MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CREATING QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS OUT
OF THE NORTH SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1200 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
THIS TIME THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS
A WAYS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SOME
SPOTTY FOG THAT HAS BEEN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE
AT TIMES.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FAIRLY HIGH...IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL OFF THE VISIBILITY DROPS IN FOG.
EXPECT THAT WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MOIST
AIR THERE WILL BE SOME FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
START TO INCREASE. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FOG THIS
MORNING. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD THE FOG WILL BE
AND HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP. THE HRRR AND SREF BOTH
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE. WILL START WITH THAT AND
WATCH.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THERE IS VERY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO WARM VERY MUCH AT ALL TODAY AND
WILL PROBABLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WELL. WINDS ALOFT REMAIN MAINLY 10
TO 20 KNOTS SO THE WIND SHOULD BE BREEZY WITH 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OR SO.
A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WITH THIS THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEARLY CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE...WHILE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SHIFTING OUT
OF THE OF THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE...AS THE HEART OF THE APPROACHING COLD AIRMASS
WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...OR ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS TUESDAY NIGHT...ALBEIT
THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE MODIFIED SOME SINCE MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW...AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MID
NOVEMBER LOWS.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR TIME TO
TIME...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THERE WILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE MAIN PIECE OF GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WITH THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
MODIFY CLOSER TO...OR EVEN ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD...AND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO FORM
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN JUST SPRINKLES.
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND JUST BEYOND...MODEL DISCREPANCY
GROWS AND THE 00Z EC CONTINUES TO BRING A VERY STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16C ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...KEEPING THE COLDER AIRMASS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THAT
THE EC APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET AND GEM LOOKING MORE SIMILAR
TO THE GFS...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CREATING QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE. WIND SPEEDS OUT
OF THE NORTH SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LOW CLOUD STREAMERS HAVE COMBINED AND BECOME A BIT MORE CELLULAR
IN NATURE PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT STILL BLANKET
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN REMAINS SUNNY...BUT INCREASED SKY GRIDS THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL OTHER AREAS. CLOUDS NOT LIKELY TO
DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT OT THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
CHALLENGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDE CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING TWO LARGE LOW CLOUD STREAMERS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN ORIGINATING FROM LAKE
MANITOBA AND LAKE WINNIPEG RESPECTIVELY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IS MOSTLY SUNNY AND THERE IS A GREATER MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS FROM WINNIPEG TO FERGUS FALLS IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
STREAMERS. RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOGETHER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH EXPANSION IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION. AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A VERY SLOW EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. INCREASED SKY COVER
MOST AREAS IN THE GRIDS.
GIVEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. A COLD DAY FOR SURE...BUT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE CURRENT
VALUES. TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...
BUT DO NOT THINK AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP 20 DEGREES. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE INITIALLY THEN A WARMING TREND. MODELS REMAIN IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A COLD DAY WITH MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...WITH SOME LAKE AFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE OF THE WOODS
NEAR BAUDETTE DURING THE MORNING. THE FETCH IS A BIT TOO WESTERLY
FOR MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF
WINDS TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY.
FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1042MB WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE ND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND AROUND ZERO IN GRAND
FORKS. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUE MORNING ARE -9 AT THE NWS IN GRAND
FORKS...-5 AT GFK AND -7 FARGO. THEREFORE...LOWS WON/T FALL TO
RECORD LEVELS...BUT -5 AT THE AIRPORT IN GFK COULD BE APPROACHED WITH
A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA WILL BEGIN. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGHS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
FOR WEDNESDAY...EVEN WARMER AIR AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WEST SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND +10C BY 18Z WED...SOME AREAS COULD EVEN APPROACH
50 WITH NO SNOW COVER TO SPEAK OF.
FOR THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT HELPING TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
FORCING IS WEAK...A BIT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH ITS EVOLUTION THAN THE GFS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER COLD SURGE AND BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ARRIVE. THE 00Z GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IS EVIDENT AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS TIME.
THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MVFR CIGS EMANATING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG STREAMING DOWN AND COVERING
A REGION ESSENTIALLY BOUNDED BY KDVL TO THE WEST AND KBJI TO THE
EAST. PLENTY OF COVER UPSTREAM TO KEEP MVFR IN PLACE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1017 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
CHALLENGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDE CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING TWO LARGE LOW CLOUD STREAMERS
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MN ORIGINATING FROM LAKE
MANITOBA AND LAKE WINNIPEG RESPECTIVELY. THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IS MOSTLY SUNNY AND THERE IS A GREATER MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS FROM WINNIPEG TO FERGUS FALLS IN-BETWEEN THE TWO
STREAMERS. RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TOGETHER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND WITH PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH EXPANSION IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION. AS SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES WITH BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A VERY SLOW EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. INCREASED SKY COVER
MOST AREAS IN THE GRIDS.
GIVEN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. A COLD DAY FOR SURE...BUT
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE CURRENT
VALUES. TWEAKED THE DIURNAL CURVE BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...
BUT DO NOT THINK AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP 20 DEGREES. REST OF THE
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THIS UPDATE...WITH FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND CLOUD TRENDS...WITH ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE INITIALLY THEN A WARMING TREND. MODELS REMAIN IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A COLD DAY WITH MOST AREAS NOT GETTING OUT OF
THE TEENS. THERE WILL BE LINGERING CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST...WITH SOME LAKE AFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE OF THE WOODS
NEAR BAUDETTE DURING THE MORNING. THE FETCH IS A BIT TOO WESTERLY
FOR MUCH OF ANY ACCUMULATION THOUGH...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF
WINDS TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY.
FOR TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1042MB WILL MOVE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT A VERY COLD NIGHT...WITH SOME
AREAS IN NE ND A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND AROUND ZERO IN GRAND
FORKS. THE RECORD LOWS FOR TUE MORNING ARE -9 AT THE NWS IN GRAND
FORKS...-5 AT GFK AND -7 FARGO. THEREFORE...LOWS WON/T FALL TO
RECORD LEVELS...BUT -5 AT THE AIRPORT IN GFK COULD BE APPROACHED WITH
A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND STRONG MID
LEVEL WAA WILL BEGIN. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES FROM
TODAYS HIGHS...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
FOR WEDNESDAY...EVEN WARMER AIR AND WESTERLY SFC FLOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 40S FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WEST SFC WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS
WARMING TO AROUND +10C BY 18Z WED...SOME AREAS COULD EVEN APPROACH
50 WITH NO SNOW COVER TO SPEAK OF.
FOR THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
CANADIAN BORDER. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT HELPING TO KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A BIT FROM WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH
FORCING IS WEAK...A BIT OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE.
MODEL DIFFERENCES SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH ITS EVOLUTION THAN THE GFS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE A STRONGER COLD SURGE AND BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ARRIVE. THE 00Z GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...BRINGS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS. SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IS EVIDENT AMONG GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DURING THIS TIME.
THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW...AND WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH
FROM CONTINUITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MVFR CIGS EMANATING FROM LAKE WINNIPEG STREAMING DOWN AND COVERING
A REGION ESSENTIALLY BOUNDED BY KDVL TO THE WEST AND KBJI TO THE
EAST. PLENTY OF COVER UPSTREAM TO KEEP MVFR IN PLACE THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...WJB
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS BLASTED INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
WHILE A POTENT 1043MB SURFACE HIGH IS NOSING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TRAILING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA
ARE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE ARRIVE. MEANWHILE FARTHER NORTH...LAKE
EFFECT STREAMERS ARE GROWING A LITTLE MORE SOLID THANKS TO MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING SW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND TRAJECTORIES HAVE
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT THE
DRY AIR HAS LIMITED THE INTENSITY TO ONLY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION...SNOW
SHOWERS AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP IN THE
MID TEENS BELOW ZERO...BUT WILL STILL HAVE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP NNW WINDS PERSISTENT THOUGH LESS GUSTY. WIND
TRAJECTORIES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT STRATO-CU TO BUILD SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO THE STRATUS BEHAVIOR OVER MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO ALSO SUPPORTS THIS
IDEA. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN FOR THE EVENING. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION THOUGH. THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND SLIGHTLY. SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE THE LAKE CLOUDS/STRATUS RETREAT TOWARDS THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C
WISCONSIN LATE. BUT DESPITE CLEARING TAKING PLACE OVERNIGHT...THE
BRISK NNW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AND WILL GO WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S SOUTH.
TUESDAY...STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL CAUSE
MORNING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO RETREAT NORTH TO THE UPPER PENINSULA.
SHOULD OTHERWISE SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. RATHER THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER SOUTH AROUND
MIDDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY PARTIALLY FILTER THE SUN. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN COLD...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO LOWER
30S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 11 2013
THE BRIEF COLD SNAP WILL END WEDNESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER
RIDGE ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING SOME
SUPPORT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY RAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EDGES EAST. THEN DRY AND MILD SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AT THE SURFACE. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH TWO
SURFACE LOWS IN THE PLAINS PHASING OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MOVING INTO MICHIGAN WITH RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
EVENTUALLY PRODUCING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER IOWA WHICH SLOWS AND
DEEPENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT WOULD BRING RAIN AND MILD WEATHER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN A SNOWSTORM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THAT/S TOO FAR OUT TO THINK ABOUT RIGHT NOW AND IT
IS RATHER EARLY IN THE SEASON...BUT THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS ARE THE ONES
THAT PRODUCE SOME OF THE BIGGER SNOWS IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH IT IS VERY DRY...NNW WINDS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
MVFR CLOUDS AND VSBYS IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCLUDING RHINELANDER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL REACH. SOME INDICATIONS
UPSTREAM THAT THEY COULD REACH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT...SO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT AUW/CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1131 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE STRONG
COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS CWA FROM NEAR IMT TO RRL. BEHIND
THE FRONT TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO QUITE GUSTY BEHIND FRONT. RADAR RETURNS HAVE
FILLED IN/EXPANDED MIDNIGHT ONWARD IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FGEN
FORCING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI. LIGHT SNOW FALLING NORTH OF
FRONT...RAIN SOUTH. NO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED AS OF YET...THOUGH WEBCAMS
FAR NORTH LOOK LIKE GOOD INCH HAS FALLEN SO FAR.
MAIN CHANGE IN THIS FORECAST WAS TO SLOW PROGRESSION
SLIGHTLY...INCLUDING RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER. FORCING EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. HAVE TRIED
TO DEPICT TEMP DROP THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN NEAR STEADY TEMPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SLOWER DROP IN TEMPS OVER FOX VALLEY
THIS MORNING...WILL UPDATE SPS SENT OUT EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS
WEST AND NORTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUE MAKING
CONDITIONS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LES OVER THE NORTH. HAVE STAYED WITH
CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING AND PREVIOUS SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE SNOW
BELT FOR TODAY GIVEN DRY AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS.
COLD TEMPS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH APPARENT TEMPS
TODAY RUNNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE NEAR ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS
SOUTH. LIGHTER WINDS LATER TUE WILL BRING SOME IMPROVEMENT.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
MDLS CONT TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPR RDGS OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC AND WRN ATLANTIC WITH A BROAD UPR TROF OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. MEAN FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WL SWITCH FROM NW TO SW AS
THIS UPR TROF DEVELOPS WHICH WL BRING MILDER...BUT MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO NE WI TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. MAIN FCST ISSUE WL BE TRYING
TO DETERMINE BEST PERIOD TO MENTION PCPN CHCS AS THE MDLS DIFFER
ON WHICH BRANCH OF THE JET WL BECOME MORE DOMINANT.
THE SFC RDG AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD TO SRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES TUE NGT. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPR
RDG WL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY TOWARD WI. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR NE WI UNDER MOSTLY CLR
SKIES AND W-SW WINDS UNDER 10 MPH. WEAK WAA TO PERSIST THRU THE
NGT AND THIS WL HELP TO COUNTER THE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS
OVERHEAD. MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO VALUES SEEN MON
NGT (GENERALLY TEENS INLAND...AROUND 20 NEAR LAKE MI). INCREASING
SW WINDS BETWEEN THE SFC HI OVER THE TN VALLEY AND A SFC LOW
MOVING INTO WRN ONTARIO ON WED WL BRING A MILDER AIR MASS INTO WI.
8H TEMPS CONT TO RISE TO ALMOST +6C BY 00Z THU AND WITH SKIES
STILL MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPS WL BE ABLE TO RISE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS (MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGS).
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED WED NGT AS A WEAK CDFNT
PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES. NO PCPN IS FCST INITIALLY DUE
TO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER WI AT THE ONSET. PERSISTENT SW WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WL PREVENT TEMPS FROM
FALLING AS FAR AS THE PAST TWO NGTS. LOOK FOR READINGS TO ONLY
SETTLE INTO THE MID TO UPR 20S. THIS APPROACHING CDFNT IS PROGGED
TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED...WAITING FOR A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF
(OVER THE UPR MS VALLEY) TO CATCH UP ON THU. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
ATMOSPHERE WL CONT TO GRADUALLY SATURATE...AS WELL AS SEEING
INCREASED LIFT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE FCST
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM ENUF SUCH THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WOULD FALL AS RAIN...ALTHO A
MIX IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE PCPN CAN REACH NRN WI.
THE WEAK CDFNT/SHORTWAVE TROF COMBINATION TO THEN PUSH ACROSS MOST
OF WI THU NGT AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF PCPN TO THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA. FCST ISSUE WL BE ON PCPN TYPE AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPR 20S
TO LWR 30S AND THE 8H 0C ISOTHERM HOVERS OVER NE WI. SINCE THE BULK
OF PCPN APPEARS TO MOVE THRU NE WI THU EVENING...ANTICIPATE PCPN TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER CNTRL AND E-CNTRL
WI. THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO CLEAR THE REGION BY FRI...ALTHO THE LACK
OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY KEEP MORE CLOUDS
AROUND THRU THE DAY. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CDFNT AND WINDS
ALOFT ONLY VEERING TO THE WEST...MAX TEMPS ON FRI ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER.
LARGE MDL DIFFERENCES REMAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE GFS/GEM FAVOR MORE
OF A NRN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING NE WI SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF CONTS TO FOCUS ON A STRONGER SRN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING N-NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM SAT
NGT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILES WOULD INDICATE RAIN AS
THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE NO MATTER WHICH SOLUTION VERIFIES...THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD TAP MORE GULF MOISTURE AND THEREBY BRINGS HEAVIER
RAINS TO NE WI. UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED...
WL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR BOTH SAT NGT AND SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION. THOUGH IT IS VERY DRY...NNW WINDS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
MVFR CLOUDS AND VSBYS IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCLUDING RHINELANDER THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE BEEFIER SNOW SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
HOW FAR SOUTH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL REACH. SOME INDICATIONS
UPSTREAM THAT THEY COULD REACH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT...SO
ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT AUW/CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUDS TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER
TONIGHT AS WELL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....TE
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC