Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/10/13


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1030 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER AIR STREAMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY/S COLD FRONT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLDER AIRMASS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING WIND. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND AND MAY YIELD A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE... IN BREVITY... BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING THROUGH WHICH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON WILL INVOKE MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LENDING TO CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. PER THE 08.12Z CHATHAM AND ALBANY SOUNDINGS...A WELL-MIXED PROFILE EVEN BEYOND H8 IS PLAUSIBLE. TEMPERATURES... MID- TO UPPER-40S WITH COOLER SPOTS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...COMBINED WITH WINDS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND -6 TO -8C. WINDS... PRESENTLY RADAR WIND PROFILERS EXHIBITING 20 KT FLOW AT H925. HRRR AND RAP NEAR-TERM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST AROUND 30 KT FLOW UP TO H8 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING A WELL-MIXED PROFILE...EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT THE SURFACE DURING MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY...TAPERING WITH SUNSET /EXCEPT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE IN PROXIMITY TO WARMER WATERS/. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN AMPLIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE SECOND WEAKER SHORTWAVE. H5 WINDS ARE SEEN ENHANCING IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WITH THE EXITING DISTURBANCE AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST... AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP. BUT BY THE POINT OF LOW-LEVEL WIND ENHANCEMENT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE PRESENCE OF GALES OVER THE WATERS. PRECIPITATION... WHILE THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE IS IN OPERATION...DOWNSLOPING MOTIONS EAST OF THE BERKSHIRES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUPPRESSION OF ACTIVITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. A SPOT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... TONIGHT... AS MENTIONED ABOVE A SECOND PULSE OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S BUT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER GIVEN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANY DIURNAL CLOUDS FROM TODAY WILL ERODE TONIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SATURDAY... SUNSHINE TO START BUT CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM NY STATE. BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT TRACK ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THUS DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS FOR WINDS...AS PGRAD WEAKENS WINDS WILL SLACKEN BY SAT AFTERNOON. TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME AS TODAY WITH HIGHS 45-50. HOWEVER WITH LIGHTER WINDS SAT IT WILL NOT FEEL AS COLD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST SAT NIGHT/SUN * SECOND COLD FRONT BRINGS CHILLY TEMPS FOR TUE/WED * POTENTIAL STORM IN THU TIME FRAME OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES... 08/00Z LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID RANGE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ARE APPARENT. IN LOOKING AT GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS...THE PNA LOOKS TO SLIGHTLY TREND POSITIVE WHILE THE NAO SHOWS VARIABILITY IN ITS TREND TOWARD NEUTRAL. THE AO IS REALLY THE ONLY TELECONNECTION THAT SHOWS A STRONG RAPID DECLINE FROM HIGHLY POSITIVE TO NEAR NEUTRAL. WHAT THIS ALL SUGGESTS IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE NRN CONUS AND ATLANTIC BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THEREFORE...WHILE A RAPID DIP IN THE AO MIGHT BE A SIGNAL...THE VARIABILITY SUGGESTS THE JURY MAY STILL BE OUT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. IN TERMS OF THE DETERMINISTIC VS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND EVEN ITS OWN ECENS MEAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...WHILE ITS GEFS MEMBERS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD. THE UKMET LAY BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS. IN SUM...WILL USE A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF FOR THE MID TERM GIVEN THE AGREEMENT...WITH A BLEND OF HPC/GFS/ECMWF FOR LATE NEXT WEEK SUCH THAT ALL SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE ENVELOPE ARE ACCOUNTED FOR. HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS DEVELOP AS ALL THE PLAYERS LINE UP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THAT THE DIVING AO SIGNAL MAY SUPPORT THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHIFT. WX FOR SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL INITIALLY BE DEFINED BY NEARLY UNIFORM ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROF STRETCHING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE INTO THE MARITIMES. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE TO THE N WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK CLIPPERS IN TOW LATE SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN BY TUE. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES DRY HIGH PRES AND A COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE DEPTH OF THE FINAL DEPTH OF THE LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD BY LATE NEXT WEEK WILL ULTIMATELY DEFINE THE WX FROM WED-ONWARD. DETAILS... SAT NIGHT INTO SUN... FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL RIDE ALONG THE CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE ZONAL JET ACROSS THE REGION...IN ESSENCE...THROUGH NRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS LEAVES THE SRN NEW ENGLAND STATES ON THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY SIDE OF THIS CLIPPER...AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AND WEAK LIFT...EXPECT THAT THIS WILL PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A FOCUS ON THE WRN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN SRN NH...WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NOV...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY SUN WILL BE FIGHTING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S...WHILE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON... HIGH PRES REGAINS CONTROL WITH A COOL START SUN NIGHT...BUT RETURN FLOW AND WARMING TEMPS ON MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DRY WX PREVAILS WITH LOWS BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO A COOLER START. MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT... A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. AM NOTING A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER LIFT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL HIGHLIGHT SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS PARTICULARLY TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE DAY. INITIALLY THE AIRMASS MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME OVERNIGHT SNOWS...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES BEGIN NEAR NORMAL...BUT LOOK TO POSSIBLY COOL RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUE. WED... COLD AIRMASS AND HIGH PRES LOOK TO BUILD IN AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LATE NEXT WEEK... AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MAINLY WITH THE DEPTH/ORIENTATION OF LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WHERE/WHETHER A WAVE OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROF TO THE S. WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COASTAL LOW. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS. ISOLATED -SHRA/-SHSN MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF IJD- ORH- EEN. SCT-BKN 040-080 CIGS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVERNIGHT ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE TERMINALS...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TAPER INTO SATURDAY WITH SKC. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. A FEW ISOLATED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N OR HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA/-SHSN ARE POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS 25+ POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. TODAY/TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20-30KT. OFFSHORE RAIN SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. CHOPPY/STEEP SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS LEFTOVER S-SW SWELLS COMBINE WITH INCREASING WNW WIND WAVES. OUTLOOK...SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE SATURDAY...WINDS SLACKEN AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE NE. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY. SUN THRU TUE... WINDS PICK UP AGAIN ON SUN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS BY SUN EVENING...BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY NONETHELESS INTO THE DAY MON. SEAS ALSO BUILD ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH 5+ FEET POSSIBLE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL LATE DAY MON...SCA CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON TUE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL...ALBEIT LOW THIS FAR OUT...OF AN EPISODE OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS/SEAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING WITH COLD E TO NE COLD FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN. && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN CT/WESTERN-CENTRAL MA AND SOUTHWEST NH WHERE RAINFALL THURSDAY WAS LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES. THUS DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TODAY. FARTHER SOUTHEAST HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED THURSDAY ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE RAIN TOTALS WERE 0.25-0.50 INCHES AND OVER 1 INCH ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS! AS A RESULT FIRE WEATHER IS LESS OF A CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA. MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM 30-45 PERCENT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230>237- 250-251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/DOODY NEAR TERM...NOCERA/DOODY/SIPPRELL SHORT TERM...NOCERA LONG TERM...DOODY AVIATION...NOCERA/DOODY MARINE...NOCERA/DOODY FIRE WEATHER...NOCERA/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
451 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING T0 EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST FETCH EXTENDS FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AM NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE COLD FRONT BY MODELS SO HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z. THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL HAVE THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THAT TIME WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA COMPLETELY BY 21Z LATER THAT DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT AROUND NOON WITH A COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST TO THE UPPER 50S OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. GLANCING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES. BASED ON COOLER AND DRIER GUIDANCE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. WITH A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST COLORADO. SOUTH WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BUT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD REGARDLESS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK)...MODELS AGREE ON SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERNS BUT DISAGREE ON THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. THEIR SOLUTIONS ALSO DISAGREE ON SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT SHOULD PASS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE MENTIONED RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SO HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IF ANY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 451 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE RH VALUES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER ABOUT 10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN VFR FROM FOG AT EITHER TERMINAL IS LOW. THE RAP MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT GLD BUT IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
515 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2013 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 Light easterly winds will continue this evening, slowly veering to the south with time. This is a result of surface high pressure over the Dakotas that will move into the lower Missouri valley by early Sunday morning. Skies will remain clear through the evening as broad zonal flow aloft won`t enhance high or mid level cloud development for western Kansas. However, weak theta-e advection will increase between about 9 and 15 UTC Sunday as the surface high sinks southeast. Given an increase in the surface dew points and falling temperatures from strong boundary radiational cooling, patchy fog is probably going to develop where winds decrease the most. Models suggest the best opportunity for that to be west of highway 83 toward the Colorado line and south of Garden City where dew point depressions decrease to 1 or less and winds could briefly go calm. The WRF forecast soundings begin to saturate near the surface after 9 UTC and saturate in deeper layers of stratus across the region that spread northward and eastward through the day into central Kansas. An increase in surface pressure gradient will lead to more breezy wind on Sunday. Increased cloud cover will effectively slow surface warming and cut temperatures up to 5 degrees as skies become broken in the afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 The biggest impact during the extended period will be the Arctic airmass that will make a brief visit. There has been some inconsistency in timing of the associated front. The model runs today(except for the GFS) have delayed the arrival. Gut feeling and past experiences would point to a faster solution as shallow Arctic air tends to slide across the high plains faster than models can resolve. I was tempted to stay the course with the previous forecast but will give in to the NAM and ECWMF 12z runs and neighboring offices and go with the slower arrival. So will have fropa entering my northern counties in the Hays and Wakeeney areas a little before Noon and move the front to the OK/KS border by 4 PM. With the slower solution will bump max temps for Monday from Highway 50 and points south. Behind the front stratus should rush in and persist through much of Tuesday. So, temperatures Tuesday will be quite chilly relative to mid November. The surface high pressure with the airmass will be anomalously high. The center will slide east of the area but will be strong enough to clear skies out Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday night should be the coldest of the year. The last half of the week will see some deepening of heights across the Rockies and there have been hints from the global models, especially the ECMWF, of a shortwave rotating through the long wave trough position such that there could be a little precipitation. Temperatures should stay seasonable. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 512 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 Low level moisture will increase across southwest Kansas overnight as southeast winds at around 10kts develop after midnight. The 18z GFS and NAM both supporting status and areas of fog developing by 12z across western Kansas. The 20z HRRR also begins to hint at this scenario by 10z. Based on this trend along with moisture return and isentropic lift developing towards 09z across western Kansas will begin to spread MVFR cigs back into the GCK and DDC areas towards 12z. HYS will begin to see an increase in these MVFR cigs after 15z. At this time widespread dense fog does not appear to be issue at any taf site but a period of 1-4sm br will be possible at GCK and DDC between 12z and 18z with the lower visibilities occurring around GCK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 38 61 41 65 / 0 0 0 10 GCK 37 61 38 63 / 0 0 0 10 EHA 37 63 38 71 / 0 0 0 10 LBL 38 63 39 69 / 0 0 0 10 HYS 37 61 40 52 / 0 0 0 10 P28 40 63 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Russell LONG TERM...Hutton AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
432 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... MAIN CHALLENGES THIS FCST CYCLE WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. 08Z IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE W AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FEATURE IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE 00Z NAM/GFS AND THE LATEST RAP AND THE 00Z UA CONFIRMS THIS AS WELL. SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDING FROM 950-700MBS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL MEAN MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND WEST W/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. WEAK FORCING IS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR N AND W TODAY LEADING TO SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. DECIDED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE PRECIP CHANCES WHICH SUPPORT 20-30% IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WNW FLOW ADDING A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES BELOW THE 15% THRESHOLD FURTHER E AND S. A SECOND TROF AXIS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA W/ANY FLURRIES MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WNW WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP A BIT. ATTM, DECIDED ON LOWS TO DROP IN TO MID20S ACROSS NORTH AND WEST AND UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TROF AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING W/SKIES STARTING TO CLEAR. HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO BRIEFLY RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON W/SUNSHINE AND WNW WINDS SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHILLY DAY W/AFTERNOON HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A SURFACE RIDGE WILL CREST THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW. ANOTHER LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID COAST OF MAINE ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND LOW WILL THEN TRACK QUICKLY EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY SUNDAY EVENING. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A BIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE AS BL TEMPS WARM DURING SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS DURING SUNDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SOME LIGHT SNOW BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS BL TEMPERATURES WARM. THERE COULD BE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN MAINE BEHIND THE EXITING MARITIMES LOW. BRIEF RIDGING IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH AND LOW/MID 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. TUESDAY WILL BE A BLUSTERY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH STRUGGLING TO GET TO THE FREEZING MARK. FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION BY LATE NEXT WEEK PER THE LATEST ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. SO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AT THIS POINT REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ON TAP THROUGH SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR/MVFR EXPECTED SUNDAY ALL TERMINALS IN SNOW/RAIN. MVFR IN SCT -SHSN MONDAY NIGHT. VFR/MVFR DUE TO CIGS...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SWAN GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING A FOOT TOO HIGH ON ITS WAVES. STAYED CLOSE TO THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT OF 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT INTO TONIGHT. EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW SCA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...DUDA AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
656 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER 850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO -7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL. OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40 EAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 A SHARP CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFERING EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIRMASS BY FAR OF THE SEASON TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. IN ADDITION...WINDY N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAY BE ABOUT 3 HR FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UP TO 0.10 INCH OF PCPN WILL FALL WITH THE FRONT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C...EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH WESTERN PARTS PERHAPS SEEING TWO INCHES WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -16C. THIS WILL YIELD GREAT AMOUNTS OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE OF OVER 9C/KM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3 KM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LAKE EFFECT MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF MARQUETTE WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE THE LONGEST OWING TO N-NW PBL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE INTERESTING PROBLEM WITH THIS LES EVENT WILL BE THE EXTRAORDINARY HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1047MB (OR OVER +3 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE MEAN) BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS LEAD TO QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT WILL ALSO USHER IN DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IN ESSENCE...THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE LIKE A PURE LES EVENT IN JANUARY VS THE NORMAL LAKE ENHANCED EVENTS THAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN NOVEMBER. WILL PROBABLY SEE VERY DISTINCT LES BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE BANDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS THAT THESE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WITH THE PBL WINDS SHIFTING FROM AROUND 320 DEG TO 345 DEG ON MONDAY...THEN BACK TO 330 OR 320 DEG MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. IN ADDITION...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL HAVE ON THE LES. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW SUGGEST THAT THIS DRYING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OVER THE WEST...WHICH MAY BE ACCURATE GIVEN THE LESSENED EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PRIMARY BAND WITH A LAKE NIPIGON INFLUENCE INTO ALGER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO ALL GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MONDAY WILL END UP BEING A FAIRLY WINDY AND SNOWY DAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL NECESSARILY FALL DUE TO THE REASONS GIVEN ABOVE...BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MODERATE SNOWFALL IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THROWING IN THE STRONG WINDS...WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM OF 2013/2014 FOR THESE AREAS. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW AMOUNTS. AS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WEST INTO KEWEENAW...STILL PLENTY OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE ALSO CLOSER TO THE HIGH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KEWEENAW WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES DESPITE FAVORABLE N-NW WINDS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ANYTHING HEAVY DUE TO THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MORE DRY AIR. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA/-SHSN TRANSITIONING -SHSN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES E. WITH GUSTY W WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE NW...PCPN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX AND BECOME MORE FREQUENT AT KIWD/KSAW. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX/KIWD WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS VARYING BTWN IFR/MVFR...BUT IFR WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW CIGS UPSTREAM OF LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD KEEP CIGS MVFR...OCNL BRIEF IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX AS CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MAKE INROADS. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI SUN AND WINDS BACK SW...LINGERING -SHSN WILL END EARLY AND STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-263>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263. GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ249>251. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251. GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LSZ248. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1214 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013 A SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LAKE SHORE AREA... MOSTLY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR THE SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FINALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH SHOWERS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW.... THEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN THE AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013 THERE ARE TWO ISSUES OF PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FIRST IS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING... PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THEN THERE IS THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT FOR THE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS SEEN ON BOTH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS...IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOPS... THERE IS A SERIES OF THREE SHORTWAVES BETWEEN CHICAGO AND MINNEAPOLIS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST. ALREADY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER WEST CENTRAL ALLEGAN COUNTY THEN WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 10000 FT AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C WHILE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR 11C... THAT WILL BE MORE THAN NEEDED TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BE? AT THE START THE AIR IS WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN... BUT INLAND OF US-31 AFTER SAY 8 PM OR SO IT MAY JUST BE COLD ENOUGH OF SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. GIVEN AIR TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING I DO NOT SEE ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY SURFACES BUT THE RAP MODEL DOES GIVE NEARLY .30 OF IN OF QPF OVER SOUTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY. MOSTLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM. THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 1000 AGL BY THEN SO IT JUST MAY END UP BEING SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. FOR NOW I HAVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS. ONCE THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES EAST SKIES SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NORTH OF I-96 SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE MOSTLY RAIN. THAT WRAPS IN WARMER AIR FOR SATURDAY SO LAKE EFFECT IS OUT OF PLAY THUS EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART AS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013 COLD IS THE OPERATIVE WORD IN THE EXTENDED WITH A BIG ARCTIC HIGH BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO BIG STORMS IN THE OFFING BUT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN ZONES AS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY AND MAY EVEN GO OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WEST WITH THE PATH OF THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EURO STILL INDICATES LESS IN THE WAY OF ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD MEAN LESS CLOUDS AND COLDER MIN TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAN THE GFS. MIN TEMPS WERE LOWERED THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2013 MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS /09Z OR SO/ AT BTL AND AZO BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS COMPLETELY END. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013 I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LAKE TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE IN THE LOWER 50S BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING SURFACE AIR ONLY IN THE 40S OVER THAT LAKE SO THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING THE 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWN CLOSE TO THE LAKE SURFACE. THUS THE GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013 EVEN WITH THE .5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL WEDNESDAY THE RIVERS DID NOT RESPOND MUCH. SO WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK... I SEE NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ON THE SHORT TERM. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LMZ844>849. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WDM SHORT TERM...WDM LONG TERM...OSTUNO AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...WDM MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013 .UPDATE... Issued at 453 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 Surface winds continue to be a bit strong at this hour but with the rapid setting of the sun the higher end gusts that exceeded 45 MPH will fade quickly this evening. Pressure gradient should be sufficient to keep boundary layer winds breezy well into the overnight hours but these speeds will be below advisory criteria, thus the Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 238 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 As expected, strong winds have overspread NW MO/NE KS early this afternoon as a SW wind shift has aligned the boundary layer unidirectionally with unseasonably strong winds just above the surface (50 knots @ 925mb and 65 knots @ 850mb). Current wind advisory looks kosher and expect frequent gusts of 40 to locally 45 mph to continue across these areas for the next 2 hours before sunset leads to partial decoupling. A gusty character will likely persist through mid evening before the low level jet axis shifts east with the attendant upper trough over the northern tier states. Southwest winds should keep temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s for lows tomorrow morning, with another mild day expected Saturday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler across far nrn MO tomorrow as some banded mid-high cloud cover acts in concert with slightly cooler 900-800mb air edging southward. Otherwise, dry and seasonably mild readings will continue for the weekend with no significant impacts once we get beyond the next several hours. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday) Issued at 238 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 The big concern in the medium range is focused on temperatures. Models are in excellent agreement, and thus a high confidence forecast, in a very anomalous arctic airmass moving southward into the United States on Monday. 12Z guidance has maintained consistency regarding the timing and arrival of the cold air moving into the area Monday afternoon. As this front moves through, temperatures should begin to fall in the afternoon, and have adjusted the diurnal curve to represent this. Atmospheric profiles continue to indicate a shallow layer of moisture accompanying the front southward through the area. While the moisture may not be deep enough for widespread rain/snow showers, wouldn`t be surprised to see sprinkles/flurries into Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday: The nearly +3 to +4SD high pressure area will settle across the region Tuesday night, likely pushing overnight lows well into the teens for some. High temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday will fall some 20 degree below seasonal normals (30s for highs, teens/20s for lows), and a review of daily records reveals a high likelihood that average temps all three days may fall within the top 10 coldest days in recorded history for each date. Friday: The cold air will linger into Friday, despite the overrunning warm air aloft. Expect additional cloud cover and perhaps a return to the 50s for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Noon) Issued at 115 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 Strong south winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts perhaps as high as 40 knots will overspread KSTJ and KMCI by 19Z, with slightly lower speeds anticipated at the lower elevation terminal at MKC. These winds will persist through 23Z with speeds/gusts gradually diminishing this evening as the atmosphere decouples. Recent RUC analysis shows the 925-850mb jet streak responsible for the winds may be slower to shift east of the terminals than previously anticipated. Right now I`m anticipating the boundary layer to remain sufficiently mixed through the evening to disqualify low level wind shear potential, but if surface speeds drop more than anticipated the 00Z update or an amendment may be needed through 06Z. Other than passing high clouds early this afternoon, clear skies and && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Cutter SHORT TERM...Bookbinder LONG TERM...Dux AVIATION...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
239 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 238 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 As expected, strong winds have overspread NW MO/NE KS early this afternoon as a SW wind shift has aligned the boundary layer unidirectionally with unseasonably strong winds just above the surface (50 knots @ 925mb and 65 knots @ 850mb). Current wind advisory looks kosher and expect frequent gusts of 40 to locally 45 mph to continue across these areas for the next 2 hours before sunset leads to partial decoupling. A gusty character will likely persist through mid evening before the low level jet axis shifts east with the attendant upper trough over the northern tier states. Southwest winds should keep temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s for lows tomorrow morning, with another mild day expected Saturday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler across far nrn MO tomorrow as some banded mid-high cloud cover acts in concert with slightly cooler 900-800mb air edging southward. Otherwise, dry and seasonably mild readings will continue for the weekend with no significant impacts once we get beyond the next several hours. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday) Issued at 238 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 The big concern in the medium range is focused on temperatures. Models are in excellent agreement, and thus a high confidence forecast, in a very anomalous arctic airmass moving southward into the United States on Monday. 12Z guidance has maintained consistency regarding the timing and arrival of the cold air moving into the area Monday afternoon. As this front moves through, temperatures should begin to fall in the afternoon, and have adjusted the diurnal curve to represent this. Atmospheric profiles continue to indicate a shallow layer of moisture accompanying the front southward through the area. While the moisture may not be deep enough for widespread rain/snow showers, wouldn`t be surprised to see sprinkles/flurries into Monday night. Tuesday-Thursday: The nearly +3 to +4SD high pressure area will settle across the region Tuesday night, likely pushing overnight lows well into the teens for some. High temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday will fall some 20 degree below seasonal normals (30s for highs, teens/20s for lows), and a review of daily records reveals a high likelihood that average temps all three days may fall within the top 10 coldest days in recorded history for each date. Friday: The cold air will linger into Friday, despite the overrunning warm air aloft. Expect additional cloud cover and perhaps a return to the 50s for the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Noon) Issued at 115 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 Strong south winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts perhaps as high as 40 knots will overspread KSTJ and KMCI by 19Z, with slightly lower speeds anticipated at the lower elevation terminal at MKC. These winds will persist through 23Z with speeds/gusts gradually diminishing this evening as the atmosphere decouples. Recent RUC analysis shows the 925-850mb jet streak responsible for the winds may be slower to shift east of the terminals than previously anticipated. Right now I`m anticipating the boundary layer to remain sufficiently mixed through the evening to disqualify low level wind shear potential, but if surface speeds drop more than anticipated the 00Z update or an amendment may be needed through 06Z. Other than passing high clouds early this afternoon, clear skies and && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ025-102>105. MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>023-028>030-037. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bookbinder LONG TERM...Dux AVIATION...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
117 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 Early this morning, a surface ridge of high pressure is residing over the area making for a cool start to the day. The surface ridge will quickly push east into the Tennessee River Valley this morning. As this occurs, a upper level shortwave will move into the northern Plains forcing a cold front into the Plains states. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the area allowing for strong southerly winds between 20-30 MPH with gusts to 30-40 MPH today. This will also help push temperatures above average into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tonight the aforementioned upper level shortwave moves into the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes on Saturday. This will force a trailing weak cold front through the area on Saturday. However, with a lack of cold air behind this front, temperatures will continue to remain above average in the low to mid 60s. Saturday night another cool surface ridge of high pressure will move into the area from the northern Plains. With mostly clear skies and light winds, a good radiational cooling setup will be in place. As such, opted for the cooler side of guidance with lows near 30 across the Iowa/Missouri border to the mid to upper 30s across central Missouri/eastern Kansas. High pressure will continue to reside over the area Sunday. With little mixing and a cool start to the day expect high temperatures to return to near average in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 315 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 Medium range models are coming into better alignment on a highly amplified pattern developing early next week that will bring a significantly cold airmass into the area Monday night and Tuesday. Both GFS and ECMWF have sped up the arrival of this airmass with cold frontal passage now timed into the forecast area Monday afternoon and evening. GFS is particularly fast bringing the front in early in the day. If this model verifies then forecast highs on Monday are much too warm, but will continue with a model blend solution for now which incorporates the slower ECMWF. Moisture won`t have too much time to return to the region behind Sunday`s high pressure, but there could be enough shallow moisture ahead of Monday`s front to squeeze out a few rain showers or even light non-accumulating snow as the front blasts through. Cold air advection behind the front will be strong and should keep highs on Tuesday in the middle to upper 30s while temperatures Tuesday night drop into the 20s. Could even see some teens Tuesday night with an anomalously deep surface high settling in. Upper level flow will flatten somewhat by Wednesday and Thursday as the very deep surface high shifts east of the area. This will allow temps to moderate somewhat but still remain several degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Noon) Issued at 115 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 Strong south winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts perhaps as high as 40 knots will overspread KSTJ and KMCI by 19Z, with slightly lower speeds anticipated at the lower elevation terminal at MKC. These winds will persist through 23Z with speeds/gusts gradually diminishing this evening as the atmosphere decouples. Recent RUC analysis shows the 925-850mb jet streak responsible for the winds may be slower to shift east of the terminals than previously anticipated. Right now I`m anticipating the boundary layer to remain sufficiently mixed through the evening to disqualify low level wind shear potential, but if surface speeds drop more than anticipated the 00Z update or an amendment may be needed through 06Z. Other than passing high clouds early this afternoon, clear skies and VFR conditions are expected. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM...Hawblitzel AVIATION...Bookbinder
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
147 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY... TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR 1320M AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S (WARMEST IN THE SOUTH). THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER. TONIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE GENERAL CONFLUENCE OF THAT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS. PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FINALLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...NEGATIVE K INDEX VALUES...AND AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH...ANTICIPATE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE UNDER A LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY AROUND 30 BUT SOME MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS...AND A FEW MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST IN THE HIGH-CLOUD PORTION OF THE AIR MASS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND WEAKER... RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WOULD PORTEND A GOOD INCREASE OF CIRRUS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64... WHILE THE NAM WOULD NOTE MUCH LESS OR THINNER SUCH CLOUDS. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...USUALLY GOOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS... IS MORE AKIN TO THE NAM...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHER QUANTITY OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WARM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SURFACE WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THE GUIDANCE FORECAST OF A NEARLY 30-DEGREE DIURNAL SEEMS POSSIBLE...FOR HIGHS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND EXISTS...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STIRRING AND THE GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO BE COOL IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 150 PM FRIDAY... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: A DRY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY... WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUN...WITH A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS LATE SAT INTO SUN. GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND RISING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES IN THE PRESENCE OF SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT...IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z MON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MON/MON NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLAR VORTEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS ON MON SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN SUN (AND MORE SIMILAR TO SAT)...IN THE LOWER 60S. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL...WITH VAST DIFFERENCES PERSISTING AMONG THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) AND GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE GFS REMAINS WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST ON TUE...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN A DRY ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WED-THU. THE ECMWF REMAINS STRONGER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS DUE TO SOME DEGREE OF PHASING WITH THE POLAR VORTEX TRACKING EAST ACROSS JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN EXPLOSIVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE TUE-THU PERIOD. GIVEN THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHICH MODEL IS BETTER HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 4-5 DAYS OUT...AND THAT THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPLICATIONS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL NC TUE-THU...WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECASTS OTHER THAN TO FURTHER REDUCE TEMPERATURES ON WED/THU GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE SOME ON AND OFF GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS EAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...KRR/DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...VINCENT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
105 PM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY... TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR 1320M AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S (WARMEST IN THE SOUTH). THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER. TONIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE GENERAL CONFLUENCE OF THAT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS EEKING INTO THE AREA. PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FINALLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...NEGATIVE K INDEX VALUES...AND AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH...ANTICIPATE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE UNDER A LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY AROUND 30 BUT SOME MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS...AND A FEW MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST IN THE HIGH-CLOUD PORTION OF THE AIR MASS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND WEAKER... RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WOULD PORTEND A GOOD INCREASE OF CIRRUS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64... WHILE THE NAM WOULD NOTE MUCH LESS OR THINNER SUCH CLOUDS. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...USUALLY GOOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS... IS MORE AKIN TO THE NAM...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHER QUANTITY OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WARM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SURFACE WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THE GUIDANCE FORECAST OF A NEARLY 30-DEGREE DIURNAL SEEMS POSSIBLE...FOR HIGHS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND EXISTS...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STIRRING AND THE GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO BE COOL IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: QUIET AND DRY BUT TURNING COOLER. EXPECT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING... MOST MARKEDLY OVER SRN NC AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVER NRN MEX INTO TX SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL DRAW IN ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE YUKON AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...SWEEPING A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE VA BORDER SECTIONS...WHICH COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED EARLY SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN PERSISTS WITH A DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY OF 64-69. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MSLP PATTERN INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WESTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD GO NEARLY CALM. LOWS 32-40. MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY/COOL MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING QUICKLY WEST-TO-EAST OVER NC... AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG VORTEX CROSSING SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...HIGHS 60-65 AND LOWS 37-42. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: STILL ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN THE QUIET WEATHER...AS A DEEP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING POLAR SURFACE FRONT DROP SSE TOWARD NC. SURPRISINGLY... AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN IT WAS WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE 00Z/08 GFS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS HAS TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE PHASED...DRIER...AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND IT LACKS A CLOSED LOW IN FAVOR OF A MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ITS LAST 4 RUNS IN CLOSING OFF AN INTENSE VORTEX OVER KY/TN/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WOBBLES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE THU... A SCENARIO ALSO HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GEFS RUNS. THE 00Z/08 ECMWF GENERATES ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC AND OFF OUR COAST...FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN TURN SPREADS A LOT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP OVER THE INLAND SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...IT WOULD BE FOOLHARDY TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT IT...BASED ON BOTH ITS CONSISTENCY AND ITS HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE. BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH TO THIS EVENT...HOLDING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THAN TO ANY EXTREME...BUT CERTAINLY THIS POSSIBLE STORM BEARS WATCHING. APART FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TOWARD 1280 M...NEARLY 60 M BELOW NORMAL...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -7C TO -10C. CURRENT TEMPS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS (NOW OVER NRN YUKON/NRN NW TERRITORIES AND THE BEAUFORT SEA) ARE WELL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE IT ARRIVES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP...HOWEVER THE OPTIMAL PATTERN FOR A LOT OF COLD AIR IN NC AND THE OPTIMAL PATTERN TO GET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NC ARE USUALLY VERY DIFFERENT. WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SO DIVERGENT...WE CANNOT AT THIS TIME STATE A PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY WED MORNING INTO THU AND WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP AS JUST COLD RAIN FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY ISSUE MAY BE SOME ON AND OFF GUSTINESS OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS EAST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...KRR/DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...KRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
958 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 945 AM FRIDAY... TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE ONLY PROGGED TO RISE TO NEAR 1320M AND THIS SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S (WARMEST IN THE SOUTH). THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER. TONIGHT...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT DESPITE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE GENERAL CONFLUENCE OF THAT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS EEKING INTO THE AREA. PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FINALLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...NEGATIVE K INDEX VALUES...AND AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH...ANTICIPATE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE UNDER A LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY AROUND 30 BUT SOME MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS...AND A FEW MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST IN THE HIGH-CLOUD PORTION OF THE AIR MASS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND WEAKER... RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WOULD PORTEND A GOOD INCREASE OF CIRRUS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64... WHILE THE NAM WOULD NOTE MUCH LESS OR THINNER SUCH CLOUDS. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...USUALLY GOOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS... IS MORE AKIN TO THE NAM...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHER QUANTITY OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WARM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SURFACE WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THE GUIDANCE FORECAST OF A NEARLY 30-DEGREE DIURNAL SEEMS POSSIBLE...FOR HIGHS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND EXISTS...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STIRRING AND THE GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO BE COOL IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: QUIET AND DRY BUT TURNING COOLER. EXPECT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING... MOST MARKEDLY OVER SRN NC AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVER NRN MEX INTO TX SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL DRAW IN ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE YUKON AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...SWEEPING A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE VA BORDER SECTIONS...WHICH COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED EARLY SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN PERSISTS WITH A DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY OF 64-69. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MSLP PATTERN INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WESTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD GO NEARLY CALM. LOWS 32-40. MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY/COOL MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING QUICKLY WEST-TO-EAST OVER NC... AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG VORTEX CROSSING SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...HIGHS 60-65 AND LOWS 37-42. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: STILL ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN THE QUIET WEATHER...AS A DEEP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING POLAR SURFACE FRONT DROP SSE TOWARD NC. SURPRISINGLY... AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN IT WAS WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE 00Z/08 GFS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS HAS TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE PHASED...DRIER...AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND IT LACKS A CLOSED LOW IN FAVOR OF A MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ITS LAST 4 RUNS IN CLOSING OFF AN INTENSE VORTEX OVER KY/TN/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WOBBLES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE THU... A SCENARIO ALSO HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GEFS RUNS. THE 00Z/08 ECMWF GENERATES ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC AND OFF OUR COAST...FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN TURN SPREADS A LOT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP OVER THE INLAND SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...IT WOULD BE FOOLHARDY TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT IT...BASED ON BOTH ITS CONSISTENCY AND ITS HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE. BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH TO THIS EVENT...HOLDING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THAN TO ANY EXTREME...BUT CERTAINLY THIS POSSIBLE STORM BEARS WATCHING. APART FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TOWARD 1280 M...NEARLY 60 M BELOW NORMAL...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -7C TO -10C. CURRENT TEMPS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS (NOW OVER NRN YUKON/NRN NW TERRITORIES AND THE BEAUFORT SEA) ARE WELL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE IT ARRIVES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP...HOWEVER THE OPTIMAL PATTERN FOR A LOT OF COLD AIR IN NC AND THE OPTIMAL PATTERN TO GET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NC ARE USUALLY VERY DIFFERENT. WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SO DIVERGENT...WE CANNOT AT THIS TIME STATE A PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY WED MORNING INTO THU AND WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP AS JUST COLD RAIN FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 610 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED A TREND TOWARD LIGHTER WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING FROM KRDU HAD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND...THE DIMINISHING TREND AND THE ALREADY MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA WILL RESULT IN THE LACK OF AN LLWS MENTION IN THE 12Z VALID TAF. VERY EARLY THIS MORNING... THERE COULD STILL BE A NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND OF 30 TO 35KT AT OR JUST ABOVE 2000FT. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A SURFACE NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A FEW SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT WITH MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...FALLING AOB 5KT... POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH EARLY BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY CALM AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LIGHT NORTHEAST AT KFAY. BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DEFINED PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN VEER MOSTLY WESTERLY SUNDAY. BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT...WINDS MAY VEER QUICKLY AROUND THE CLOCK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MODESTLY GUSTY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM LATE IN THIS PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS...CURRENTLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MVFR. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...KRR/DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
610 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVING EAST...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDDAY. THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A DRY AIR MASS VIRTUALLY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL...AT OR BELOW A QUARTER-INCH. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT... BUT DESPITE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE GENERAL CONFLUENCE OF THAT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS EEKING INTO THE AREA. PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FINALLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...NEGATIVE K INDEX VALUES...AND AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH...ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE WSR-88DS SHOWED WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 40KT FROM THE NORTH...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE GFS FORECASTS 925MB WINDS FALLING TO NEAR 30KT VERY EARLY TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY BELOW 20KT BY 18Z. EXPECT A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT DURING THE DAY BASED ON MIXING AVAILABLE VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS. MET AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED...AND THE HIGHS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. HIGHS TODAY 55 TO 60. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE UNDER A LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY AROUND 30 BUT SOME MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS...AND A FEW MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST IN THE HIGH-CLOUD PORTION OF THE AIR MASS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND WEAKER... RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WOULD PORTEND A GOOD INCREASE OF CIRRUS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64... WHILE THE NAM WOULD NOTE MUCH LESS OR THINNER SUCH CLOUDS. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...USUALLY GOOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS... IS MORE AKIN TO THE NAM...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHER QUANTITY OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WARM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SURFACE WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THE GUIDANCE FORECAST OF A NEARLY 30-DEGREE DIURNAL SEEMS POSSIBLE...FOR HIGHS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND EXISTS...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STIRRING AND THE GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO BE COOL IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: QUIET AND DRY BUT TURNING COOLER. EXPECT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING... MOST MARKEDLY OVER SRN NC AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVER NRN MEX INTO TX SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL DRAW IN ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE YUKON AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...SWEEPING A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE VA BORDER SECTIONS...WHICH COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED EARLY SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN PERSISTS WITH A DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY OF 64-69. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MSLP PATTERN INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WESTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD GO NEARLY CALM. LOWS 32-40. MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY/COOL MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING QUICKLY WEST-TO-EAST OVER NC... AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG VORTEX CROSSING SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...HIGHS 60-65 AND LOWS 37-42. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: STILL ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN THE QUIET WEATHER...AS A DEEP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING POLAR SURFACE FRONT DROP SSE TOWARD NC. SURPRISINGLY... AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN IT WAS WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE 00Z/08 GFS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS HAS TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE PHASED...DRIER...AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND IT LACKS A CLOSED LOW IN FAVOR OF A MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ITS LAST 4 RUNS IN CLOSING OFF AN INTENSE VORTEX OVER KY/TN/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WOBBLES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE THU... A SCENARIO ALSO HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GEFS RUNS. THE 00Z/08 ECMWF GENERATES ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC AND OFF OUR COAST...FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN TURN SPREADS A LOT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP OVER THE INLAND SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...IT WOULD BE FOOLHARDY TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT IT...BASED ON BOTH ITS CONSISTENCY AND ITS HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE. BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH TO THIS EVENT...HOLDING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THAN TO ANY EXTREME...BUT CERTAINLY THIS POSSIBLE STORM BEARS WATCHING. APART FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TOWARD 1280 M...NEARLY 60 M BELOW NORMAL...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -7C TO -10C. CURRENT TEMPS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS (NOW OVER NRN YUKON/NRN NW TERRITORIES AND THE BEAUFORT SEA) ARE WELL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE IT ARRIVES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP...HOWEVER THE OPTIMAL PATTERN FOR A LOT OF COLD AIR IN NC AND THE OPTIMAL PATTERN TO GET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NC ARE USUALLY VERY DIFFERENT. WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SO DIVERGENT...WE CANNOT AT THIS TIME STATE A PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY WED MORNING INTO THU AND WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP AS JUST COLD RAIN FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 610 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. THE WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWED A TREND TOWARD LIGHTER WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE JUST BEFORE DAWN...AND ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AMDAR SOUNDING FROM KRDU HAD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND...THE DIMINISHING TREND AND THE ALREADY MARGINAL LLWS CRITERIA WILL RESULT IN THE LACK OF AN LLWS MENTION IN THE 12Z VALID TAF. VERY EARLY THIS MORNING... THERE COULD STILL BE A NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND OF 30 TO 35KT AT OR JUST ABOVE 2000FT. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A SURFACE NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A FEW SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT WITH MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...FALLING AOB 5KT... POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH EARLY BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY CALM AND VARIABLE...EXCEPT LIGHT NORTHEAST AT KFAY. BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DEFINED PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN VEER MOSTLY WESTERLY SUNDAY. BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT...WINDS MAY VEER QUICKLY AROUND THE CLOCK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MODESTLY GUSTY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM LATE IN THIS PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS...CURRENTLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MVFR. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
250 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVING EAST...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDDAY. THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A DRY AIR MASS VIRTUALLY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL...AT OR BELOW A QUARTER-INCH. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT... BUT DESPITE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE GENERAL CONFLUENCE OF THAT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS EEKING INTO THE AREA. PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FINALLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...NEGATIVE K INDEX VALUES...AND AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH...ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE WSR-88DS SHOWED WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 40KT FROM THE NORTH...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE GFS FORECASTS 925MB WINDS FALLING TO NEAR 30KT VERY EARLY TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY BELOW 20KT BY 18Z. EXPECT A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT DURING THE DAY BASED ON MIXING AVAILABLE VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS. MET AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED...AND THE HIGHS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. HIGHS TODAY 55 TO 60. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE UNDER A LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY AROUND 30 BUT SOME MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS...AND A FEW MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST IN THE HIGH-CLOUD PORTION OF THE AIR MASS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND WEAKER... RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WOULD PORTEND A GOOD INCREASE OF CIRRUS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64... WHILE THE NAM WOULD NOTE MUCH LESS OR THINNER SUCH CLOUDS. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...USUALLY GOOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS... IS MORE AKIN TO THE NAM...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHER QUANTITY OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WARM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SURFACE WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THE GUIDANCE FORECAST OF A NEARLY 30-DEGREE DIURNAL SEEMS POSSIBLE...FOR HIGHS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND EXISTS...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STIRRING AND THE GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO BE COOL IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: QUIET AND DRY BUT TURNING COOLER. EXPECT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING... MOST MARKEDLY OVER SRN NC AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVER NRN MEX INTO TX SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL DRAW IN ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE YUKON AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...SWEEPING A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE VA BORDER SECTIONS...WHICH COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED EARLY SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN PERSISTS WITH A DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY OF 64-69. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MSLP PATTERN INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WESTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD GO NEARLY CALM. LOWS 32-40. MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY/COOL MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING QUICKLY WEST-TO-EAST OVER NC... AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG VORTEX CROSSING SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...HIGHS 60-65 AND LOWS 37-42. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: STILL ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN THE QUIET WEATHER...AS A DEEP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING POLAR SURFACE FRONT DROP SSE TOWARD NC. SURPRISINGLY... AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN IT WAS WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE 00Z/08 GFS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS HAS TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE PHASED...DRIER...AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND IT LACKS A CLOSED LOW IN FAVOR OF A MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ITS LAST 4 RUNS IN CLOSING OFF AN INTENSE VORTEX OVER KY/TN/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WOBBLES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE THU... A SCENARIO ALSO HINTED AT BY THE LATEST GEFS RUNS. THE 00Z/08 ECMWF GENERATES ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC AND OFF OUR COAST...FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN TURN SPREADS A LOT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP OVER THE INLAND SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...IT WOULD BE FOOLHARDY TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT IT...BASED ON BOTH ITS CONSISTENCY AND ITS HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE. BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH TO THIS EVENT...HOLDING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THAN TO ANY EXTREME...BUT CERTAINLY THIS POSSIBLE STORM BEARS WATCHING. APART FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TOWARD 1280 M...NEARLY 60 M BELOW NORMAL...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -7C TO -10C. CURRENT TEMPS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS (NOW OVER NRN YUKON/NRN NW TERRITORIES AND THE BEAUFORT SEA) ARE WELL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE IT ARRIVES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP...HOWEVER THE OPTIMAL PATTERN FOR A LOT OF COLD AIR IN NC AND THE OPTIMAL PATTERN TO GET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NC ARE USUALLY VERY DIFFERENT. WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SO DIVERGENT...WE CANNOT AT THIS TIME STATE A PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY WED MORNING INTO THU AND WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP AS JUST COLD RAIN FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS...STILL VFR...JUST EAST OF KRWI EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF THAT TERMINAL...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING THE RELATIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED LLWS FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGSO...KINT..AND KRDU WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A GENERALLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND...AND WSR-88D DATA WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS TO 40KT WITHIN THE FIRST 2000FT...SUGGEST ITS OCCURRENCE. WINDS AT THE 2K FT LEVEL SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z BASED ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A FEW SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT WITH MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...FALLING AOB 5KT...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DEFINED PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN VEER MOSTLY WESTERLY SUNDAY. BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT...WINDS MAY VEER QUICKLY AROUND THE CLOCK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MODESTLY GUSTY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM LATE IN THIS PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS...CURRENTLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MVFR. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
230 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH AXIS ALOFT MOVING EAST...AND BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUGGEST THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AXIS WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MIDDAY. THE AIR MASS IS FAIRLY DRY ALOFT...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOW A DRY AIR MASS VIRTUALLY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL...AT OR BELOW A QUARTER-INCH. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT... BUT DESPITE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THE GENERAL CONFLUENCE OF THAT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WITH MAYBE A FEW CIRRUS EEKING INTO THE AREA. PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF HALIFAX AND EDGECOMBE COUNTIES FINALLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST IN CONCERT WITH THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DIMINISHING IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z. UNDER SUBSIDENCE...NEGATIVE K INDEX VALUES...AND AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH...ANTICIPATE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE TODAY AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. AREA VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE WSR-88DS SHOWED WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 40KT FROM THE NORTH...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE GFS FORECASTS 925MB WINDS FALLING TO NEAR 30KT VERY EARLY TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY BELOW 20KT BY 18Z. EXPECT A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT DURING THE DAY BASED ON MIXING AVAILABLE VIA BUFR SOUNDINGS. MET AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE AND GENERALLY FOLLOWED...AND THE HIGHS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. HIGHS TODAY 55 TO 60. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MORE VARIABLE UNDER A LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY AROUND 30 BUT SOME MID TO UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS...AND A FEW MID 30S SOUTHEAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE PROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND THE GFS IS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS NOTICEABLY MORE MOIST IN THE HIGH-CLOUD PORTION OF THE AIR MASS WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVES...WHILE THE NAM IS DRIER AND WEAKER... RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WOULD PORTEND A GOOD INCREASE OF CIRRUS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 64... WHILE THE NAM WOULD NOTE MUCH LESS OR THINNER SUCH CLOUDS. THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL...USUALLY GOOD WITH HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS... IS MORE AKIN TO THE NAM...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL HAVE SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT... WITH THE HIGHER QUANTITY OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES RELATIVE TO THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES WARM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND THE SURFACE WIND VEERS SOUTHWEST. WITH A DRY AIR MASS...THE GUIDANCE FORECAST OF A NEARLY 30-DEGREE DIURNAL SEEMS POSSIBLE...FOR HIGHS AROUND 60. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND EXISTS...AS WINDS OFF OF THE SURFACE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DRY SURFACE FRONT. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE STIRRING AND THE GUIDANCE TENDENCY TO BE COOL IN THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL SHOW A DEFINITE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MAV MOS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS WITHIN TWO OR THREE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY... FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: QUIET AND DRY BUT TURNING COOLER. EXPECT A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING... MOST MARKEDLY OVER SRN NC AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS NOW OVER NRN MEX INTO TX SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL DRAW IN ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE YUKON AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...SWEEPING A WEAK DRY COOL FRONT THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC REGION. THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING BY JUST TO OUR NORTH SHOULD BRING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE VA BORDER SECTIONS...WHICH COULD BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED EARLY SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NEVERTHELESS...WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE COLUMN PERSISTS WITH A DOWNSLOPE WNW LOW LEVEL FLOW. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT...SUPPORTING HIGHS SUNDAY OF 64-69. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE COOLER SURFACE HIGH STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE MSLP PATTERN INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH IN THE EAST TO CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WESTERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD GO NEARLY CALM. LOWS 32-40. MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY/COOL MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING QUICKLY WEST-TO-EAST OVER NC... AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW OVER NC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG VORTEX CROSSING SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...HIGHS 60-65 AND LOWS 37-42. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: STILL ANTICIPATING A BREAK IN THE QUIET WEATHER...AS A DEEP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING POLAR SURFACE FRONT DROP SSE TOWARD NC. SURPRISINGLY... AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS ACTUALLY WORSE THAN IT WAS WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE 00Z/08 GFS OVER THE LAST 4 RUNS HAS TRENDED LESS AMPLIFIED...MORE PHASED...DRIER...AND MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND IT LACKS A CLOSED LOW IN FAVOR OF A MOISTURE-STARVED MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN ITS LAST 4 RUNS IN CLOSING OFF AN INTENSE VORTEX OVER KY/TN/SRN APPALACHIANS LATE WED/WED NIGHT WHICH WOBBLES EASTWARD BEFORE LIFTING OUT LATE THU. THE 00Z/08 ECMWF GENERATES ABUNDANT FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER NC AND OFF OUR COAST...FOSTERING DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPLOSIVE COASTAL LOW ALONG THE NEARSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN TURN SPREADS A LOT OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP OVER THE INLAND SOUTHEAST AND MIDATLANTIC LATE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS HAD LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...IT WOULD BE FOOLHARDY TO TOTALLY DISCOUNT IT...BASED ON BOTH ITS CONSISTENCY AND ITS HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE. BUT GIVEN THAT THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH TO THIS EVENT...HOLDING CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THAN TO ANY EXTREME...BUT CERTAINLY THIS POSSIBLE STORM BEARS WATCHING. APART FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNT AND PLACEMENT...THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE INCOMING AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE COLD...WITH PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES DROPPING TOWARD 1280 M...NEARLY 60 M BELOW NORMAL...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TAKING 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO -7C TO -10C. CURRENT TEMPS WITHIN THIS AIR MASS (NOW OVER NRN YUKON/NRN NW TERRITORIES AND THE BEAUFORT SEA) ARE WELL BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT...AND THIS AIR MASS WILL HAVE LIMITED TIME TO MODIFY BEFORE IT ARRIVES. PARTIAL THICKNESSES FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP...HOWEVER THE OPTIMAL PATTERN FOR A LOT OF COLD AIR IN NC AND THE OPTIMAL PATTERN TO GET SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NC ARE USUALLY VERY DIFFERENT. WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SO DIVERGENT...WE CANNOT AT THIS TIME STATE A PREFERRED SCENARIO WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS EARLY WED MORNING INTO THU AND WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP AS JUST COLD RAIN FOR NOW...BUT WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL AND OBSERVED TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS...STILL VFR...JUST EAST OF KRWI EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF THAT TERMINAL...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING THE RELATIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED LLWS FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGSO...KINT..AND KRDU WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A GENERALLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND...AND WSR-88D DATA WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS TO 40KT WITHIN THE FIRST 2000FT...SUGGEST ITS OCCURRENCE. WINDS AT THE 2K FT LEVEL SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z BASED ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A FEW SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT WITH MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...FALLING AOB 5KT...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DEFINED PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN VEER MOSTLY WESTERLY SUNDAY. BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT...WINDS MAY VEER QUICKLY AROUND THE CLOCK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MODESTLY GUSTY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM LATE IN THIS PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS...CURRENTLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MVFR. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...GIH AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1240 AM EST FRI NOV 08 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 850 PM THURSDAY... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. GOOD CAA BEHIND THE FRONT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH THIN CIRRUS POSSIBLE WILL LEAD TO LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN OUR FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. EXPECT WE WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST A LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT AFTER THE GUSTINESS BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO DIE DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONG ~1030MB CP SURFACE HIGH OVER THE TN/MS VALLEY SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TO START THE DAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1310M...REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY. FCST SOUNDINGS AND IN-HOUSE THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORT FORECAST HIGHS A GOOD 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COOLER WITH AFTER MIXING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS. SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING MAY TEMPER WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE COULD BE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S FRIDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY... SATURDAY THOUGH MONDAY: A DRY WEST/WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EARLY SAT WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY IN THE PACIFIC NW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY... BUILDING INTO THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT (AS A DRY COLD FRONT) BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE REGION ON MON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ON SAT...NEAR NORMAL ON SUN...THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN ON MON. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LARGE IN THIS PERIOD...WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MID NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED DISAGREEMENT...LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN (~1045 MB HIGH) WILL PLUNGE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUILDING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON TUE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER ON WED/THU. PRECIP CHANCES ARE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN GIVEN SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION THE RANGE (DAY 6-7) IN THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY (MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN) EXISTS TO JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF A 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE DAY 6-7 PERIOD (~WED). PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS/TIMING (PERHAPS TYPE) WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM NEXT WEEK...A SYSTEM THAT HAS YET TO EVOLVE. AS A RESULT...IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO ACCEPT ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION AT THIS RANGE. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1240 AM FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS...STILL VFR...JUST EAST OF KRWI EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD STAY JUST EAST OF THAT TERMINAL...WITH THE RAP MODEL SHOWING THE RELATIVE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z. INCLUDED LLWS FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING AT KGSO...KINT..AND KRDU WHERE THE COMBINATION OF A GENERALLY DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND...AND WSR-88D DATA WITH SLIGHTLY VEERING WINDS TO 40KT WITHIN THE FIRST 2000FT...SUGGEST ITS OCCURRENCE. WINDS AT THE 2K FT LEVEL SHOULD DIMINISH BY 12Z BASED ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A FEW SURFACE GUSTS APPROACHING 20KT WITH MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET...FALLING AOB 5KT...POSSIBLY VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE NORTH. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DEFINED PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...THEN VEER MOSTLY WESTERLY SUNDAY. BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT...WINDS MAY VEER QUICKLY AROUND THE CLOCK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MODESTLY GUSTY TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM LATE IN THIS PERIOD...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS...CURRENTLY A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF MVFR. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
613 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 UDPATED TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORY. STILL HAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW MN (BDE-BJI AREAS) BUT OTHERWISE AREA IS CLOUDY. REALLY UNSURE HOW FAST CLEARING WILL MAKE IT EASTWARD FROM CNTRL ND AND AGREE WITH WFO BIS AND SLOW CLEARING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW END POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUD/ TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 00 UTC WITH A FEW OBSERVATION SITES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY STILL NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTING THE CLEARING LINE WILL REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY. THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES HERE TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S. ASSSUMING SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING TAKES PLACE ELSEWHERE...ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. WEAK SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH IF THE SUN MAKES A PROLONGED APPEARANCE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES. NORTH WIND FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID TEENS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A 1044 TO 1048 HPA SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CENTER OF HIGH REMAINS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. ASSUMING CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FROM -8 TO -12 C...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUB- ZERO READINGS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES POINT TOWARD A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 ISSUE WILL BE CIGS AND CLEARING TRENDS. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY ABATE TONIGHT....SO EXPECT ONLY A SLOW CLEARING TREND EASTWARD THRU ERN ND AFTER MIDNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS MAY CONTINUE TO BE TOO FAST WITH CLEARING AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN ERN ND AND RRV WITH LOWER END MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CIGS IN NW MN TONIGHT. CLEARING MAY NOT REACH MUCH OF MN FCST AREA TIL PAST 12Z SUN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 LACK OF GROUND TRUTH COUPLED WITH UNIMPRESSIVE RADAR ECHOES CONTINUES TO BE THE CHALLENGE. THE COLUMN IS EVER SO GRADUALLY SATURATING...BUT THE 290K ISENTROPIC SFC REALLY DOES NOT CRANK UP THE LIFT UNTIL AFT 18Z. THEREFORE...DO SEE PRECIP CHANCES STILL LIKELY THIS AFTN. HOWEVER TEMPS DID WARM UP MORE THAN EXPECTED PRIOR TO ONSET OF PRECIP...SO HAVE REMOVED ANY ACCUMULATION THROUGH 00Z. WEB CAMS ARE SHOWING WET ROADS IN NORTHEASTERN ND BUT HARD TO TELL IF IT IS RAIN OR SNOW MELTING AS IT FALLS THROUGH THE WARM/DRY LAYER. LIKELY SOME OF EACH. MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE IS TO TREND DOWNWARD POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ESPECIALLY THE WEST...ENDING PRECIP THIS EVENING QUICKER THAN INITIALLY ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AS COLUMN SATURATES AND SNOW FALLS IN MY NORTHEAST...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY NOT LAST UNTIL MORNING DUE TO STILL WARM GROUND TEMPS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 SO FAR RADAR ECHOES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE START OF ANY PRECIP THIS MORNING. THE BEST ECHOES ARE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND BUT NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF GROUND TRUTH ON WEB CAMS OR METARS. 12Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT DRY LAYER AROUND 825 MB...THUS ANY ICE CRYSTALS FALLING FROM -10 TO -20 LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE. CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN FURTHER SATURATION OF THE COLUMN BEGINS AND THEN P-TYPE. WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT ACTUALLY FALLS (SOUNDINGS TRENDING MORE TOWARD RAIN). AS FAR AS POPS...WILL BLEND IN 12Z NAM DATA WHICH FOCUSES MORE ON NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA. 12Z NAM STILL SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS...ROSEAU...BELTRAMI AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THEY SEE MORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BY LATE AFTN. NO SIG CHANGES MAKE TO TEMPS/WINDS ON THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. 00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER WITH DETAILS. COMPARING 00Z MODELS...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP (THE 500MB WAVE IS SOUTH OF OTHER MODELS). 06Z MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (RAP/HRRR/NAM12). USING A COMBINATION OF THESE MODELS BEGINS TO CLEAR UP THE PICTURE A LITTLE BIT. A LEAD BAND OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PRECIP RESULTING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FA...AND MOST OF WHAT FALLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIQUID (MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW DVL BASIN). SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE RISING AT A FAST ENOUGH RATE THAT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIP SHOULD RESULT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (THAT ARE ABLE TO PICK UP ON FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION) INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP WOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW. THUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF 925MB TEMPS FROM THE NAM/RAP/GFS/ECMWF FOR P-TYPE. THIS INDICATES AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA COULD BE ALL SNOW. THE RAP IS A BIT WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH WOULD MEAN MOST AREAS LIQUID...WITH ONLY ROSEAU TO BAUDETTE SNOW. GIVEN THAT THE RAP USUALLY VERIFIES BEST WITH 925MB TEMPS...THE WARM AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND NO CLEAR ORGANIZED BANDING POTENTIAL...WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO THE ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...BEMIDJI AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING 1-2 INCHES...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE/IF HEAVIER BANDS SET UP. SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...LIKELY ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS IS DRY...BUT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE FROPA. MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE AT THE SFC AN ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD. MODELS LARGELY KEEP A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -12 TO -15C ON MONDAY. THUS...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT RISE HIGHER THAN THE 20S...WHILE MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPS...AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 MOST LOCATIONS HAVE CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THERE WILL BE A TREND OF INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND DECREASING CEILINGS AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL ND. FOR NOW KEPT KFAR AS MOSTLY RA WITH -RASN OR ALL SN FURTHER NORTH. CIGS SHOULD GO DOWN TO MVFR BY THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SITES DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF BY EVENING AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 15 TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...SPEICHER SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1003 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 SO FAR RADAR ECHOES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR THE START OF ANY PRECIP THIS MORNING. THE BEST ECHOES ARE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND BUT NOT SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF GROUND TRUTH ON WEB CAMS OR METARS. 12Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWS A DECENT DRY LAYER AROUND 825 MB...THUS ANY ICE CRYSTALS FALLING FROM -10 TO -20 LAYER WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE. CHALLENGE WILL BE WHEN FURTHER SATURATION OF THE COLUMN BEGINS AND THEN P-TYPE. WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT ACTUALLY FALLS (SOUNDINGS TRENDING MORE TOWARD RAIN). AS FAR AS POPS...WILL BLEND IN 12Z NAM DATA WHICH FOCUSES MORE ON NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA. 12Z NAM STILL SHOWS A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS...ROSEAU...BELTRAMI AREA...WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IF THEY SEE MORE EVAPORATIVE COOLING BY LATE AFTN. NO SIG CHANGES MAKE TO TEMPS/WINDS ON THIS UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. 00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER WITH DETAILS. COMPARING 00Z MODELS...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP (THE 500MB WAVE IS SOUTH OF OTHER MODELS). 06Z MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (RAP/HRRR/NAM12). USING A COMBINATION OF THESE MODELS BEGINS TO CLEAR UP THE PICTURE A LITTLE BIT. A LEAD BAND OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PRECIP RESULTING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FA...AND MOST OF WHAT FALLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIQUID (MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW DVL BASIN). SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE RISING AT A FAST ENOUGH RATE THAT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIP SHOULD RESULT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (THAT ARE ABLE TO PICK UP ON FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION) INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP WOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW. THUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF 925MB TEMPS FROM THE NAM/RAP/GFS/ECMWF FOR P-TYPE. THIS INDICATES AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA COULD BE ALL SNOW. THE RAP IS A BIT WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH WOULD MEAN MOST AREAS LIQUID...WITH ONLY ROSEAU TO BAUDETTE SNOW. GIVEN THAT THE RAP USUALLY VERIFIES BEST WITH 925MB TEMPS...THE WARM AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND NO CLEAR ORGANIZED BANDING POTENTIAL...WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO THE ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...BEMIDJI AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING 1-2 INCHES...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE/IF HEAVIER BANDS SET UP. SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...LIKELY ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS IS DRY...BUT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE FROPA. MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE AT THE SFC AN ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD. MODELS LARGELY KEEP A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -12 TO -15C ON MONDAY. THUS...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT RISE HIGHER THAN THE 20S...WHILE MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPS...AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CIGS COULD BE MVFR WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING. KBJI HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...12 SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. 00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER WITH DETAILS. COMPARING 00Z MODELS...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP (THE 500MB WAVE IS SOUTH OF OTHER MODELS). 06Z MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (RAP/HRRR/NAM12). USING A COMBINATION OF THESE MODELS BEGINS TO CLEAR UP THE PICTURE A LITTLE BIT. A LEAD BAND OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PRECIP RESULTING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FA...AND MOST OF WHAT FALLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIQUID (MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW DVL BASIN). SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE RISING AT A FAST ENOUGH RATE THAT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIP SHOULD RESULT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (THAT ARE ABLE TO PICK UP ON FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION) INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP WOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW. THUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF 925MB TEMPS FROM THE NAM/RAP/GFS/ECMWF FOR P-TYPE. THIS INDICATES AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA COULD BE ALL SNOW. THE RAP IS A BIT WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH WOULD MEAN MOST AREAS LIQUID...WITH ONLY ROSEAU TO BAUDETTE SNOW. GIVEN THAT THE RAP USUALLY VERIFIES BEST WITH 925MB TEMPS...THE WARM AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND NO CLEAR ORGANIZED BANDING POTENTIAL...WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO THE ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...BEMIDJI AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING 1-2 INCHES...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE/IF HEAVIER BANDS SET UP. SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...LIKELY ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS IS DRY...BUT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE FROPA. MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE AT THE SFC AN ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD. MODELS LARGELY KEEP A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -12 TO -15C ON MONDAY. THUS...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT RISE HIGHER THAN THE 20S...WHILE MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPS...AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND CIGS COULD BE MVFR WITHIN MORE ORGANIZED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING. KBJI HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...TG SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 CHALLENGE WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE SYSTEM TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE/IF SNOWFALL COULD OCCUR. 00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT STILL DIFFER WITH DETAILS. COMPARING 00Z MODELS...THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST SOUTH WITH THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP (THE 500MB WAVE IS SOUTH OF OTHER MODELS). 06Z MODEL RUNS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND TO THE ECMWF WITH THE LOCATION OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH INCOMING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS (RAP/HRRR/NAM12). USING A COMBINATION OF THESE MODELS BEGINS TO CLEAR UP THE PICTURE A LITTLE BIT. A LEAD BAND OF 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH SOME PRECIP RESULTING. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE. 925MB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE FA...AND MOST OF WHAT FALLS THIS MORNING SHOULD BE LIQUID (MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW DVL BASIN). SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE RISING AT A FAST ENOUGH RATE THAT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN. AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIP SHOULD RESULT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS (THAT ARE ABLE TO PICK UP ON FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION) INDICATE A BAND OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA BY MID-AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP WOULD THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FROM THE UPPER LOW. THUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIP AT SOME TIME THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF 925MB TEMPS FROM THE NAM/RAP/GFS/ECMWF FOR P-TYPE. THIS INDICATES AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA COULD BE ALL SNOW. THE RAP IS A BIT WARMER WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPS...WHICH WOULD MEAN MOST AREAS LIQUID...WITH ONLY ROSEAU TO BAUDETTE SNOW. GIVEN THAT THE RAP USUALLY VERIFIES BEST WITH 925MB TEMPS...THE WARM AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND NO CLEAR ORGANIZED BANDING POTENTIAL...WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TO THE ROSEAU...BAUDETTE...BEMIDJI AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING 1-2 INCHES...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH WHERE/IF HEAVIER BANDS SET UP. SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NW MN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE. WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI NOV 8 2013 SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...LIKELY ON SUNDAY. AIRMASS IS DRY...BUT COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE FROPA. MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE AT THE SFC AN ARCTIC HIGH DROPS SOUTHWARD. MODELS LARGELY KEEP A WEAKENING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPS AT 925 MB WILL FALL TO AROUND -12 TO -15C ON MONDAY. THUS...HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD NOT RISE HIGHER THAN THE 20S...WHILE MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPS...AS THE SFC HIGH CENTER SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND MODELS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A FLATTER LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES. THE UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST THU NOV 7 2013 LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HIGH CLOUDS-MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE VALLEY 12-14Z THEN INTO BEMIDJI AREA BY 16Z. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20 KTS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SFC LOW WILL MOVE THRU FCST AREA ND-MN THIS AFTN-THIS EVE WITH MAIN PRECIP NORTHERN FCST AREA WITH SNOW CHANCES BETTER NORTH OF DVL-GFK-BJI WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MIDDLE THEN MOSTLY -RA IN THE SOUTHERN FCST AREA. MOSTLY VFR CIGS UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS. ALSO MVFR VSBSYS LIKELY IN -SN AREAS (TVF-BJI) LATE TODAY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TG LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST OUT WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WILL TAKE A MENTION AS FAR WEST AS KCLE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KYNG. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS HAVEN`T DONE MUCH SINCE SUNSET AND HAVE RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY DAYBREAK CAN`T SEE A 20 DEGREE DROP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. NEXT MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON 850MB TEMPS EXPECT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE FOR MONDAY HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C. DRY AIR FILLS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB/LAKE INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME WITH FLOW FROM THE NORTH OFF LAKE HURON. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS BUT WOULD EXPECT A LAKE HURON BAND SETTING UP SOMEWHERE WITH MULTIBAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE WITH A SHORT FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY THOUGH AND THEN THERE IS THE DRY AIR. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT THEN GET GOING AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE LAKES MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING TO CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN BOOST BACK TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TAPER TO CHANCE AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FOR WED SO TEMPS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHSN ARE IN QUESTION. WILL TEND TO STAY CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW WITH SMALL CHANCE SHSN ON WED THEN DRY WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE MOST OF THE TIME THRU SAT ALTHOUGH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRI TO SLOW THE WARMING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY THEN STALLS OVER VIRGINIA FRI AND SAT. DRY AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THU THEN THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT BRINGS A BAND OF MOISTURE ON FRI SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND ALSO ON SAT AS THE MOISTURE HANGS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT ERI AND YNG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. && .MARINE... UPDATED TO CANCEL THE LOW WATER ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE WATER LEVEL TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK. HOWEVER...THE WATER LEVEL COULD APPROACH THE CRITICAL MARK...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE IT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TURN A SW FLOW TO WNW. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY KICK UP TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUSTAINED AT 30 KNOTS AND STAY WITH A SCA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT TO LESSEN THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR THE SCA TO END WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATER MON TO VEER THE FLOW TO NW AND INCREASE THE FLOW TO 30 KNOTS AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY WED TO LESSEN THE FLOW AGAIN WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW. THE SCA MAY STILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE AS THE FLOW MAY NOT DROP OFF ENOUGH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ144>146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
936 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST OUT WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WILL TAKE A MENTION AS FAR WEST AS KCLE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KYNG. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS HAVEN`T DONE MUCH SINCE SUNSET AND HAVE RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY DAYBREAK CAN`T SEE A 20 DEGREE DROP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. NEXT MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON 850MB TEMPS EXPECT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE FOR MONDAY HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C. DRY AIR FILLS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB/LAKE INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME WITH FLOW FROM THE NORTH OFF LAKE HURON. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS BUT WOULD EXPECT A LAKE HURON BAND SETTING UP SOMEWHERE WITH MULTIBAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE WITH A SHORT FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY THOUGH AND THEN THERE IS THE DRY AIR. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT THEN GET GOING AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE LAKES MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING TO CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN BOOST BACK TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TAPER TO CHANCE AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FOR WED SO TEMPS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHSN ARE IN QUESTION. WILL TEND TO STAY CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW WITH SMALL CHANCE SHSN ON WED THEN DRY WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE MOST OF THE TIME THRU SAT ALTHOUGH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRI TO SLOW THE WARMING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY THEN STALLS OVER VIRGINIA FRI AND SAT. DRY AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THU THEN THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT BRINGS A BAND OF MOISTURE ON FRI SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND ALSO ON SAT AS THE MOISTURE HANGS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GUST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT ERI AND YNG WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP ON SUNDAY. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TURN A SW FLOW TO WNW. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY KICK UP TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUSTAINED AT 30 KNOTS AND STAY WITH A SCA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT TO LESSEN THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR THE SCA TO END WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATER MON TO VEER THE FLOW TO NW AND INCREASE THE FLOW TO 30 KNOTS AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY WED TO LESSEN THE FLOW AGAIN WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW. THE SCA MAY STILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE AS THE FLOW MAY NOT DROP OFF ENOUGH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ144>146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
932 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .UPDATE... BIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND FORECAST WERE TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH AND WEST TO BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE. THE 00Z HRRR SHOWING VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE ACROSS TEXAS AND BEAVER COUNTIES...AND A LITTLE OF EASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY...SOUTH TO POTTER AND RANDALL COUNTIES EAST TO WHEELER AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY FROM 08Z AND 09Z SUNDAY TO 15Z SUNDAY. LATEST NAM ALSO SUPPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN HALF MILE IN DENSE FOG AT KAMA AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH THE 00Z NAM IN THE SMOKE MANAGEMENT GRIDS AND SMOOTHED OUT THE HOURLY TEMPS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AND UPDATED DEW POINTS...WINDS...WEATHER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS TONIGHT. ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT. SCHNEIDER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/ AVIATION... CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY... WHEN FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LIFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z SUNDAY. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RESUME AROUND 20Z SUNDAY AT KAMA AND KGUY...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KDHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COCKRELL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/ DISCUSSION... THERE ARE THREE MAIN PERIODS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST. TONIGHT...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE OFF THE CAPROCK...WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S...AND SATURATION COULD BE REACHED AS EARLY AS 1 AM. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE POOLING OFF THE CAPROCK. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...THE RISK FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY DENSE FOG...IS LESS THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN A COMPLETE TURN FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS LATER ARRIVAL WILL BE HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY HIGHS AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR THE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL VERY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT ONLY. JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JOHNSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY... HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE... OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER. OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS. && $$ 03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .UPDATE...LATEST RAP LOW LEVEL RH IS FAIRLY WELL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT SKY COVER. USING THE RAP...STILL LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. THOUGH TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHOULD SEE LOWS NEAR NORMAL AS THE CLOUDS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WATCHING MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATEST RAP DROPS THIS DECK THROUGH THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND CONSIDER MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TO TAFS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE LOWER CIGS WOULD BE FROM 12 TO 16Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY THEN RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM MID OR LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTH BY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH FOR VFR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MAY SEE ENOUGH SATURATION NORTH FOR A RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT. GUSTS IN THE 24 TO 28 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS SHOWING LOW CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS...A BIT WARMER ALONG THE LAKE. PASSING 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING NORTHWEST WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED PER 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS. SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. WARM ADVECTION BRINGS THICKNESSES UP ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG COLD FRONT TO INITIALLY START OUT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...THEN QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THEN ALL SNOW ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A SLUSHY 0.10 OF AN INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS. MORNING HIGHS THEN FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS TO KEEP LAKE-EFFECT SNOW OUT OVER THE LAKE...WITH ALL THE MODELS INDICATING A MID-LAKE BAND. SOME OF THE LAND AREAS EXTENDING INTO THE LAKE LIKE SHEBOYGAN AND WIND POINT COULD BE BRUSHED BY A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ADD A POP. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. BROAD STRONG ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE CENTER OF THE U.S. WITH 515 DM TO 520 DM 1000-500MB THICKNESSES...AND 925MB TEMPERATURES OF -7C TO -10C...WITH THE GFS AS LOW AS -12C IN THE FAR NW CWA...BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THESE 925MB TEMPS YIELD LOWS IN THE TEENS INLAND AND LOW20S RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AS THE 925 MB TEMPS MODIFY UPWARD SLIGHTLY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE POCKET OF COLDEST AIR SWINGS EAST OF THE REGION. LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SETTLING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULTING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH ALLOWS 925 MB TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM TOWARD...BUT NOT QUITE AT...NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. FORCING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING...WITH THE LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLY STARTING OUT AS LIGHT SNOW BEFORE A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO RAIN. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CATEGORY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK MIXING OUT AROUND AND SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. MORE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD MOVE INTO MADISON THIS EVENING...LINGERING UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT SOMEWHAT AT THE EASTERN SITES...MOVING IN AGAIN BY MID EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT THE EASTERN SITES...AND AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT MADISON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST...WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL VEER NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED. WINDS AT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 35 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH WILL SPORADICALLY MIX DOWN AT TIMES. HAVE SEEN A FEW MARINE OBSERVATION SITES TODAY GUSTING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS. IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF THE 35 KNOT GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A GALE WARNING. AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...KEPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING. WIND GUST OBSERVATIONS AT AND NEAR THE SHORE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 15Z SUNDAY...UNTIL THE GUSTS SUBSIDE BELOW 22 KNOTS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DDV TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW AND FLOODING THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN AN OB WITH PRECIP IN IT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE OBSERVED A FEW GUSTS REACHING 34 TO 35 KNOTS. WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...SHOULD SEE THE GUSTINESS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT PRECIP ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH SOME SURFACE STABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...MARGINALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...THEY SHOW DECREASING SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK THIS IS CONSIDERABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT ALSO ON THERMAL TROUGHING AND VEERING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN SO INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. DELTA T/S ARE ONLY AROUND 13-14C...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS AN INCH OVER NORTHERN VILAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BACKING WINDS AND A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THEN A MID AND HIGH DECK SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. A 125KT JET AT 300MB COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A DECENT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPSTREAM LAKES ARE NOT FROZEN YET AND IT SEEMS LIKE THEY CONTRIBUTE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO EXTREME AND WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AT TIMES. THE MAIN THING WORKING AGAINST A BIG EVENT IS THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND ALSO SUBSIDENCE. THINK THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS IN VILAS COUNTY. IT WILL BECOME MILDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR PASSES BY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 540 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WSTRN WI LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NC WI TONIGHT...AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE-EFFECT. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD ACCOMPANY THE PCPN... MAINLY NORTH OF RHI. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS SHOWING WINDS INCREASING AT 900MB TONIGHT INTO THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SUPPORTIVE OF GALES OVER THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT TO DOOR COUNTY. SO WITH COORDINATION FROM MQT...UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. SOME DISCUSSION OF UPGRADING TO GALES FARTHER SOUTH...BUT OFFSHORE WINDS AND SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE HIGHER END GUSTS WILL OCCUR MORE TOWARDS OPEN LAKE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
542 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE SOUTHWARD OF 850 TO 925 MB MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AT 800 MB THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THIS INVERSION LOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCES ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE LOOP...THERE ARE CURRENTLY HOLES AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AND THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST IN THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DARKNESS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE RUC JUST IN CASE THE CURRENT MOISTURE THAT IS OUT THERE CAN SPREAD BELOW THE INVERSION. MEANWHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...THE CLOUD FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AS THE 925 TO 850 LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG 800 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND 280-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WHERE THE 280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 30 MB. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE JUST A TRACE. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 30 MB ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER BY THIS TIME...THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. LIKE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THE CONSRAW TENDS TO HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS THE BEST...WENT WITH IT FOR POPULATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN STABILIZE AND RISE A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE LACK OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILLS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NORMALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8C. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION... TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY EVENING... AND THEN STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE. THE 280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO NOT FALL TO LESS THAN 30 MB UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL IT MOVED INTO THIS AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 542 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 FORECAST FOCUSED ON CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS VFR CLOUDS /3 TO 5 KFT/ CONTINUE IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...MUCH OF MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN. BOTH KRST/KLSE LIE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS DECK...AND WILL BOUNCE IN/OUT BETWEEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIS EVENING BEFORE A MORE WESTERLY PUSH SHUNTS THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO 06Z. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH THERE ARE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT TRY TO TRAP SOME OF THE CLOUDS BELOW A 750 MB INVERSION AND THEN LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST WINDS IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...MORE CONFIDENT IN AN WESTERLY PUSH...KEEPING THE TAF SITES SCATTERED. FOR SUNDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH...SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHICH IS SLATED TO PASS THROUGH DRY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION.....ZT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
312 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SW ONTARIO AND STRONG HIGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB WAS MAINTAINING W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF WI AND MN DRIFTING SE INTO FAR N CENTRAL AND NE IA...WHILE SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER EASTERN IA...NW IL AND FAR NORTHEAST MO. ALOFT...A BROAD NW FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST...SENDING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOWER MIXING COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT THE CURRENT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA ALLOWING A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES SHOULD CLOUD OVER IN THE AFTERNOON AS AN AREA MID LEVEL CLOUDS CAUSED BY WARM ADVECTION AND MODEST GULF MOISTURE RETURN OVER NEB MIGRATES EASTWARD. CONSIDERING THIS...PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH ARE CLOSE TO LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND LOOK REASONABLE. TONIGHT...INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEARLY BISECT IA FROM SW TO NE BY 12Z. THIS WOULD KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MIXED PREFRONTAL SW FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. LOWS WILL OCCUR CLOSE TO THE 12Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME AND DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION. FOR NOW...HAVE LOWS CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND...FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS MAINLY POST FRONTAL AND BASED ON CURRENT TIMING HAVE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MAIN SHOW CONTINUES TO BE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY. MODEL PREFERENCES...WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL TIMING AND POSITION... GENERALLY FAVOR THE GFS DUE TO ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. REST OF THE MODELS HAVE CLOSED IN ON THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH HAS BEEN THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE...GFS IS NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND WILL USE WITH CAUTION...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE NAM. PRECIP POTENTIAL MONDAY REMAINS IN QUESTION. FORCING IS STRONG BUT MOISTURE LACKING...SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS TIED TO FROPA AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB FRONT. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE RAPIDLY WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO HAVE ENDED PRECIP CHANCES A BIT EARLIER WITH ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST ENDING BY 00Z. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...HAVE ALSO STAYED WITH THE COLDER GFS WHEN DETERMINING PRECIP TYPE. GFS SOUNDING SHOWS ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING BY 18Z TO WELL SOUTH OF I-80...AND HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIP TYPE TO CHANGE TO SNOW MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. REGARDLESS...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE. LATER IN THE WEEK...DIGGING SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE IN QUESTION AND MAIN FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GO SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND...AND WILL AGAIN CARRY LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE ENERGY BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY MOST MODELS. HRRR KEEPS CLOUDS NORTH BUT LATEST RAP STARTING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME EROSION IN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT REGIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO IOWA...I HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT CIGS AND ONLY HINT WITH SCATTERED DECK AROUND 3KFT AGL AT KDBQ...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHEETS SHORT TERM...SHEETS LONG TERM...DMD AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1153 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 AT 3 PM A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PLACED EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE WINDS THIS EVENING AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS WERE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. MODELS SOUNDINGS WERE DEEPLY MIXED THIS AFTERNOON AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECOUPLING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SO LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER 23 UTC. LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH 06 UTC AND DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS BY 12 UTC. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND AS THE WINDS WEAKEN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S BY 12 UTC ON SUNDAY. IF THE HIGH BUILDS IN FASTER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH A CANADIAN AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE THEME FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID 30S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF FAIRLY MILD MONDAY MORNING BUT FALL DRAMATICALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING AND PUSHES THE FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY 18Z MONDAY. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS UP TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HENCE...I WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE SNOW IS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS HUGE IN AREAL EXTENT AND COVERS THE ENTIRE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW SURFACE PRESSURE TO BE AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ON THESE DAYS AVERAGE AROUND MINUS 12 DEGREES CENTIGRADE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE TEENS. RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 11TH AND 12TH ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SO WE WILL NOT BE APPROACHING RECORD LOW TERRITORY. THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEXT WEEKEND BUT I WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST BEING THAT IT IS SEVEN DAYS OUT. ..KUHL.. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOW CLOUDS WITH HIGH MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY MOST MODELS. HRRR KEEPS CLOUDS NORTH BUT LATEST RAP STARTING TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THESE CLOUDS TO BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME EROSION IN INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT REGIME WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO IOWA...I HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT CIGS AND ONLY HINT WITH SCATTERED DECK AROUND 3KFT AGL AT KDBQ...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...COUSINS SHORT TERM...COUSINS LONG TERM...KUHL AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
911 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 911 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 ADDED PATCHY FOG AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH THIS UPDATE. NAM/RAP SHOWING GOOD BL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CWA (SOUTH OF I-70 CORRIDOR). SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...SAND MID 30 TO LOW 40F TD VALUES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS SW KS AND NORTHERN OK/TX. WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON EASTERN SIDE OF LEE TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE HIGHER TD VALUES ADVECT NORTH INTO OUR CWA...MATCHING TIMING OF NAM/RAP RH SATURATING. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS FOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER FOR NOW PATCHY COVERAGE SEEMED REASONABLE. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 150 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH A WEAK LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING T0 EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST FETCH EXTENDS FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE RETURN FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AM NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT IN THIS HAPPENING...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 247 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE COLD FRONT BY MODELS SO HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WARMED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND 12Z. THE GFS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER IN THIS SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAM...CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL HAVE THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT THAT TIME WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE AREA COMPLETELY BY 21Z LATER THAT DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT AROUND NOON WITH A COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGHS FOR MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FIRST TO THE UPPER 50S OVER EAST COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. GLANCING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THERE IS SOME SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. HAVE ONLY MENTIONED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES. BASED ON COOLER AND DRIER GUIDANCE...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY. WITH A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST COLORADO. SOUTH WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BUT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE COLD REGARDLESS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK)...MODELS AGREE ON SIMILAR UPPER AIR PATTERNS BUT DISAGREE ON THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. THEIR SOLUTIONS ALSO DISAGREE ON SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT SHOULD PASS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST. WITH EACH SHORTWAVE...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE MENTIONED RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SO HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. HAVE SIDED WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...IF ANY...FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 451 PM MST SAT NOV 9 2013 VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE RH VALUES MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER ABOUT 10Z BUT THE PROBABILITY OF LESS THAN VFR FROM FOG AT EITHER TERMINAL IS LOW. THE RAP MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH A MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...POSSIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT GLD BUT IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...DR SHORT TERM...LOCKHART LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
306 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/ QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA. && .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE) ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP. MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS. WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE. THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LAKE EFFECT THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KPLN AND KTVC. MAINLY MVFR OVERCAST...BUT COULD SEE A BRIEF DIVE INTO HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS. DRYING TAKES SLOW HOLD LATER TODAY...ALLOWING CIGS TO RISE AND SHOWERS TO END. GUSTY WEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST...WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY LATER TODAY. NEXT FRONT TO ARRIVE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD (EARLY MONDAY MORNING). WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCTION OF NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP (LIKELY MOSTLY SNOW) THIS EVENING. WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SD SHORT TERM...DL LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...MB MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
302 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER 850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO -7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL. OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40 EAST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 INTERESTING FORECAST PERIOD STARTING 12Z MON AS A SFC TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL BE SE OF THE CWA BY THIS TIME. THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE FACT THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL START BEHIND THE FRONT...AS WELL AS 850MB TEMPS AROUND -15C. MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE NW-NNW WINDS AND FAIRLY STEADY -15C OR SO 850MB TEMPS THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND INTO TUE OVER THE ERN CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT LES IN NW WIND SNOWBELTS MON INTO MON NIGHT. SOME DETAILS WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AS NOTED WELL BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. EVEN WITH SUBSTANTIAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS TO AROUND 3KM...THE INFLUENCE OF THE IMPRESSIVE 1045MB SFC HIGH TO OUR W MAKES SOME DETAILS WITH THE SNOWFALL FORECAST CHALLENGING. THE TRICKIEST AREA LOOKS TO BE OVER THE WRN U.P. WHERE THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE NW-NNW FLOW...BUT DRY MID LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND AMOUNTS...BUT TO AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT. THIS WILL BE LESS OF AN ISSUE OVER ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE GREATER FETCH AND EVEN LES BANDING OFF LAKE NIPIGON WILL HELP THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FURTHER. SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL /AND THAT SHOULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVER AT LEAST THE ERN CWA/ ON MON INTO EARLY MON NIGHT BEFORE INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND MORE DRY AIR MOVES IN. MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT ANY POSSIBLE HEADLINES OVER ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE TO HEADLINES OUT E IS THAT IT WILL BE WINDY WHICH WILL LOWER THE SLR AND WIND DIRECTIONS LOOK TO VARY SOME THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WHICH MAY KEEP MORE DOMINANT BANDS MORE TRANSIENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS LOOKS TO BE LINING UP TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM OF THE SEASON OVER THE ERN CWA...THE WINDS WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES...AND THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AND EVENING PEAK TRAVEL HOURS SO IMPACTS WOULD BE HIGHER IN THIS SCENARIO. DECIDED TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES FOR MON AND MON NIGHT. THINKING IS THAT EVEN IF ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT MEET SPECIFIC WARNING CRITERIA...SOCIETAL IMPACTS SHOULD JUSTIFY THE HEADLINE. A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED OVER WRN UPPER MI AS WELL...BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME OVER THERE TO ISSUE ANYTHING. AS ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY...EXPECT LES TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TUE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CWA. CONDITIONS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY LATE WED AS THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH AND THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO KY...BRINGING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 7C BY 00Z THU WITH STRONG SW FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER NORMAL /OR EVEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL/. TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO GREAT CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CWA ON FRI...BUT MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THAT SYSTEM WELL. USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS FROM WED ON AND FOCUSED ATTENTION ON SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED MON INTO TUE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA/-SHSN TRANSITIONING -SHSN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES E. WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW...PCPN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX AND SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AT KIWD/KSAW. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX/KIWD WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD KEEP CIGS HIGHER IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WINDS BACK SW... LINGERING -SHSN WILL END EARLY AND STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD...FROPA WILL OCCUR AT KCMX/KIWD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHSN/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER FROPA... ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 30KT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ006-007-085. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244- 245-263>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ240>242-263. GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ248>251. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...TITUS AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1159 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER 850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO -7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE 5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A 0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL. OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40 EAST. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 A SHARP CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFERING EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIRMASS BY FAR OF THE SEASON TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. IN ADDITION...WINDY N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAY BE ABOUT 3 HR FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY FAST MOVING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UP TO 0.10 INCH OF PCPN WILL FALL WITH THE FRONT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C...EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH WESTERN PARTS PERHAPS SEEING TWO INCHES WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -16C. THIS WILL YIELD GREAT AMOUNTS OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE OF OVER 9C/KM AND INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 3 KM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LAKE EFFECT MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF MARQUETTE WHERE THE FETCH WILL BE THE LONGEST OWING TO N-NW PBL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE INTERESTING PROBLEM WITH THIS LES EVENT WILL BE THE EXTRAORDINARY HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1047MB (OR OVER +3 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE MEAN) BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT ONLY WILL THIS LEAD TO QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT WILL ALSO USHER IN DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IN ESSENCE...THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE LIKE A PURE LES EVENT IN JANUARY VS THE NORMAL LAKE ENHANCED EVENTS THAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN NOVEMBER. WILL PROBABLY SEE VERY DISTINCT LES BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE BANDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS THAT THESE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WITH THE PBL WINDS SHIFTING FROM AROUND 320 DEG TO 345 DEG ON MONDAY...THEN BACK TO 330 OR 320 DEG MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. IN ADDITION...IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL HAVE ON THE LES. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW SUGGEST THAT THIS DRYING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OVER THE WEST...WHICH MAY BE ACCURATE GIVEN THE LESSENED EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PRIMARY BAND WITH A LAKE NIPIGON INFLUENCE INTO ALGER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO ALL GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MONDAY WILL END UP BEING A FAIRLY WINDY AND SNOWY DAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL NECESSARILY FALL DUE TO THE REASONS GIVEN ABOVE...BUT IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MODERATE SNOWFALL IN ALGER/NRN SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THROWING IN THE STRONG WINDS...WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORM OF 2013/2014 FOR THESE AREAS. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW AMOUNTS. AS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WEST INTO KEWEENAW...STILL PLENTY OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE ALSO CLOSER TO THE HIGH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KEWEENAW WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES DESPITE FAVORABLE N-NW WINDS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ANYTHING HEAVY DUE TO THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MORE DRY AIR. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY DRY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 LAKE ENHANCED -SHRA/-SHSN TRANSITIONING -SHSN WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR MOVES E. WITH WINDS VEERING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW...PCPN WILL CONTINUE AT KCMX AND SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AT KIWD/KSAW. UPSLOPE FLOW AT KCMX/KIWD WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD KEEP CIGS HIGHER IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME PERIODS OF VFR. AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI TODAY AND WINDS BACK SW... LINGERING -SHSN WILL END EARLY AND STRATOCU/MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT...LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD...FROPA WILL OCCUR AT KCMX/KIWD...ACCOMPANIED BY SHSN/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER FROPA... ESPECIALLY AT KCMX WHERE GUSTS SHOULD EXCEED 30KT. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LSZ244-245-263>267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251-265. GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263. GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ248>251. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ221-248-250. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ROLFSON MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
310 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY... NORTHERN END OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS OF THIS WRITING...AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FORECASTS FROM THE RAP AND GFS...ALONG WITH THE HRRR WRF CLOUD COVER FORECAST...ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BY 12Z TO 14Z IN THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD KFAY AND KCTZ. THIS TIMING SEEMS REASONABLE...AS THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE NORTHERN END OF THE HIGH CLOUDS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE ACTUALLY SHOWING A FEW MORE THIN SPOTS AND EROSION ON THE WEST END. AFTER THE HIGH CLOUDS DEPART AND THE WEAK LIFT MOVES OFF WITH THEM... CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY AS WELL AS K INDICES GO STRONGLY NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL VEER AND THERE WILL BE A FEW WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...MAYBE A COUPLE JUST HIGHER THAN 20 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 WHERE THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE HIGHER VALUES JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND GOOD SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...67 TO 72. TONIGHT...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR MASS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH HELPS TO DIMINISH THE WIND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MINS DUE TO THE CONCERN ABOUT THE COOLNESS OF THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WITH THIS HIGH... ALTHOUGH JUST ENOUGH MIXING COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. STILL...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY... WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS A 90KT JET AT 300MB IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 12Z TUESDAY... THOUGH APPROACHING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN 850MB LIFT INCREASES ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. K INDICES REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY PERSISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT... HIGH-LEVEL NAM AND GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL BOTH SUGGEST SOME MID- AND/OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 FOR THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...THE NAM MOISTURE FORECAST IS MUCH DRIER ALOFT COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE NAM HIGHER 300MB WINDS OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AREAS OF AT LEAST HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS WIND SPEED FORECAST AROUND 300MB VERIFIES THEN. WILL FORECAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THAT...PLUS THE TYPICAL COOL GUIDANCE BIAS THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS MONDAY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...60 TO 65. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY... FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH NC ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THEN EAST... FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWS AND CLOSES OFF AS A BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL NC BY LATE WED. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS... AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE LAST FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z AND INTO SE NC BY SUNSET... WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL TEMP PATTERN WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN CWA. GIVEN THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE POLAR FRONT WITH ITS REARWARD SLOPING ASCENT... WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB TROUGH). FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CAROLINAS/ERN TN/NRN GA WHERE THE MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST AND VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING SATURATION FROM AROUND 925 MB UP TO 650 MB... DEEPEST IN THE WRN CWA INCLUDING THE TRIAD (WHERE LIFT WILL BE GREATEST)... AND ALL OF THIS SATURATION OCCURS BELOW 0C. THIS SATURATION ALSO EXTENDS UP BEYOND -15C FOR SEVERAL HOURS... MEANING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT WHEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BEST ALIGNED TEMPORALLY (MIDDAY TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING)... THE LOWEST 100 MB OR SO IS FAIRLY DRY... INCREASING THE ODDS OF EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION OF ANY FALLING HYDROMETEORS... PLUS THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. SO WHILE WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN... IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL... ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% IN THE WRN CWA DOWN TO 10-20% IN THE CENTRAL/EAST) AND LOW AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING AVERAGE TIMING OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF... WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AROUND NOON... DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... FINALLY EXITING THE SW CWA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE STRONG SURGE OF WINDS BEGINNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE VERY EXPANSIVE AND DENSE ARCTIC HIGH PUSHING IN WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN THE MSLP GRADIENT SUCH THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NEAR THE VA BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS... RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CWA WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MSLP GRADIENT SLACKENS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE PLUMMETING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS 28-36. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN A WORD: COLD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST AND SE OF CENTRAL NC (AS THE BAGGY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER COASTAL NC) WILL CAUSE A CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SWRLY UPPER JET CORE JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC AND NC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DPVA... RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD FORM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS COULD BRUSH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT WITH A STEADY NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HEART OF A VERY CHILLY HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... HIGHS COULD BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL... AND MODELS AGREE ON MORNING 850 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280 M. HIGHS 41-46. AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT... WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND TEMPS SHOULD CRASH... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 22-29. BOTH OF THESE HIGHS AND LOWS WED/WED NIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOVE RECORD COLD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AND WARMING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED OVER NC/VA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EASE OUT TO SEA... SUPPLANTED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY... BUT AS THIS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI INTO SAT... INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO NC... WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL 925-850 MB FLOW FROM THE SE AND S SHOULD BRING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S THU... RISING TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRI AND LOW-MID 60S SAT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S THU NIGHT RISING TO MID 30S-AROUND 40 FRI NIGHT. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE QUICKLY DEPART BY AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY... WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE ONE-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 5 TO 6 PERCENT AND TEN-HOUR FUELS JUST BELOW 10 PERCENT...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...AND PLAN TO DISCUSS ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE DURING THE MORNING FOR ANY NEEDED INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13: RDU: 39 (1911) GSO: 35 (1907) FAY: 43 (1976) RECORD LOW 11/14: RDU: 20 (1977) GSO: 19 (1986) FAY: 24 (1932) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...DJF FIRE WEATHER...DJF/WSS CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
238 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY... SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT MORE...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR WRF HIGH-CLOUD FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS...PUSHING THEM ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SOME WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS... THEN WHEN THEY DEPART LATE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RENEWED FALL TO NEAR FORECAST MINS. PROBABLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING HIGHER IS TOWARD KFAY...KMEB...AND KCTZ AND DID OPT TO RAISE MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY... A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA IS A BIT LATER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS DYING DOWN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. -KC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z MON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MON/MON NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLAR VORTEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY... FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH NC ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THEN EAST... FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWS AND CLOSES OFF AS A BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL NC BY LATE WED. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS... AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE LAST FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z AND INTO SE NC BY SUNSET... WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL TEMP PATTERN WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN CWA. GIVEN THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE POLAR FRONT WITH ITS REARWARD SLOPING ASCENT... WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB TROUGH). FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CAROLINAS/ERN TN/NRN GA WHERE THE MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST AND VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING SATURATION FROM AROUND 925 MB UP TO 650 MB... DEEPEST IN THE WRN CWA INCLUDING THE TRIAD (WHERE LIFT WILL BE GREATEST)... AND ALL OF THIS SATURATION OCCURS BELOW 0C. THIS SATURATION ALSO EXTENDS UP BEYOND -15C FOR SEVERAL HOURS... MEANING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT WHEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BEST ALIGNED TEMPORALLY (MIDDAY TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING)... THE LOWEST 100 MB OR SO IS FAIRLY DRY... INCREASING THE ODDS OF EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION OF ANY FALLING HYDROMETEORS... PLUS THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. SO WHILE WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN... IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL... ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% IN THE WRN CWA DOWN TO 10-20% IN THE CENTRAL/EAST) AND LOW AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING AVERAGE TIMING OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF... WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AROUND NOON... DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... FINALLY EXITING THE SW CWA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE STRONG SURGE OF WINDS BEGINNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE VERY EXPANSIVE AND DENSE ARCTIC HIGH PUSHING IN WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN THE MSLP GRADIENT SUCH THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NEAR THE VA BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS... RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CWA WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MSLP GRADIENT SLACKENS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE PLUMMETING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS 28-36. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN A WORD: COLD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST AND SE OF CENTRAL NC (AS THE BAGGY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER COASTAL NC) WILL CAUSE A CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SWRLY UPPER JET CORE JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC AND NC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DPVA... RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD FORM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS COULD BRUSH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT WITH A STEADY NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HEART OF A VERY CHILLY HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... HIGHS COULD BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL... AND MODELS AGREE ON MORNING 850 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280 M. HIGHS 41-46. AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT... WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND TEMPS SHOULD CRASH... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 22-29. BOTH OF THESE HIGHS AND LOWS WED/WED NIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOVE RECORD COLD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AND WARMING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED OVER NC/VA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EASE OUT TO SEA... SUPPLANTED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY... BUT AS THIS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI INTO SAT... INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO NC... WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL 925-850 MB FLOW FROM THE SE AND S SHOULD BRING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S THU... RISING TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRI AND LOW-MID 60S SAT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S THU NIGHT RISING TO MID 30S-AROUND 40 FRI NIGHT. -GIH && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE QUICKLY DEPART BY AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY... RECENT ROUND OF DRY WEATHER (ONLY 0.01 AT KGSO THE PAST WEEK) WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN 1 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND 5-6 PERCENT WITH 10 HOUR FUELS 7-8N PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LOWER TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE 1 HOUR FUELS ARE LOWEST. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING HAS BEEN ANALYZED AND THE NC FORESTRY SERVICE CONSULTED. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13: RDU: 39 (1911) GSO: 35 (1907) FAY: 43 (1976) RECORD LOW 11/14: RDU: 20 (1977) GSO: 19 (1986) FAY: 24 (1932) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...KC/VINCENT LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...DJF FIRE WEATHER...WSS CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1246 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY... SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY DIMINISHED THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS HELPING TO SUPPORT MORE...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HRRR WRF HIGH-CLOUD FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS...PUSHING THEM ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST BY 12Z. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SOME WITH THE HIGH CLOUDS... THEN WHEN THEY DEPART LATE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RENEWED FALL TO NEAR FORECAST MINS. PROBABLY THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING HIGHER IS TOWARD KFAY...KMEB...AND KCTZ AND DID OPT TO RAISE MINS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 225 PM SATURDAY... A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...VEERING AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE THE TIMING OF THE FROPA IS A BIT LATER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS DYING DOWN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK MONDAY...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. -KC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WILL RESULT IN PRESSURE RISES OVER THE OH VALLEY...PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NC WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA BY 12Z MON. FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MON/MON NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLAR VORTEX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IN THE WAKE OF THE DRY COLD FRONT...EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...IN THE LOWER 60S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 220 PM SATURDAY... CONFIDENCE IS RAPIDLY INCREASING W/REGARD TO THE FORECAST TUE-THU. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY TUE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON WED BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE THU/FRI AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STRONG (1045 MB) ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY TUE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS A LARGELY DRY COLD FRONT TUE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STRONG DPVA ASSOC/W SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST COULD RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...PRIMARILY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUE-THU FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP FRI/SAT. WILL LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE TUE/TUE NIGHT (BEST CHANCE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT) AND DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. -VINCENT && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE QUICKLY DEPART BY AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT. BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 1010 PM SATURDAY... RECENT ROUND OF DRY WEATHER (ONLY 0.01 AT KGSO THE PAST WEEK) WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN 1 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AROUND 5-6 PERCENT WITH 10 HOUR FUELS 7-8N PERCENT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LOWER TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN THE PIEDMONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IN THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE 1 HOUR FUELS ARE LOWEST. WHILE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FIRE DANGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING HAS BEEN ANALYZED AND THE NC FORESTRY SERVICE CONSULTED. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...KC/VINCENT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...DJF FIRE WEATHER...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 WRN EDGE OF CLOUDS BREAKING UP A BIT MORE NOW SO EDGED CLEARING A BIT FASTER EASTWARD INTO RRV OVERNIGHT THOUGH STILL THINK AREAS FROM ROX-BJI WILL STAY IN THE CLOUDS TIL PAST 12Z. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALL DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...TEENS IN CLEAR AREAS AND MID-UPR 20S IN CLOUD AREAS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 UDPATED TO EXPIRE WIND ADVISORY. STILL HAVE SOME FLURRIES IN NW MN (BDE-BJI AREAS) BUT OTHERWISE AREA IS CLOUDY. REALLY UNSURE HOW FAST CLEARING WILL MAKE IT EASTWARD FROM CNTRL ND AND AGREE WITH WFO BIS AND SLOW CLEARING. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW END POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUD/ TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 00 UTC WITH A FEW OBSERVATION SITES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY STILL NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVENING SHIFT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY. FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTING THE CLEARING LINE WILL REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY. THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES HERE TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S. ASSSUMING SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING TAKES PLACE ELSEWHERE...ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS. WEAK SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO AS HIGH AS THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH IF THE SUN MAKES A PROLONGED APPEARANCE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES. NORTH WIND FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...BUT STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID TEENS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A 1044 TO 1048 HPA SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CENTER OF HIGH REMAINS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LIMITING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. ASSUMING CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT WITH 925 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FROM -8 TO -12 C...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUB- ZERO READINGS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER RIDGE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES POINT TOWARD A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 INITIALLY TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH CLOUD CLEARING CONCERNS WITH MVFR CIGS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT OF GFK/FAR 06Z-09Z PERIOD AS CLOUDS BREAK UP....CLOUDS LIKELY TO HOLD ON LONGER TIL PAST 12Z AT BJI BUT CLEARING THERE UNCERTAIN. TVF AS WELL NEAR SOME CLEARING HOLES AND MAY GO BTWN SCT-BKN OVERNIGHT BUT MOSTLY BKN MVFR. DVL CLEAR. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL TURM MORE WEST OR SOUTHWEST IN MANY AREAS BY 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN EARLY SUN MORNING WITH COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH DVL REGION 17-18Z...GFK 19-20Z ....FAR-TVF 21Z...BJI 22Z OR SO. EXPECTING BKN LOW END VFR CLOUDS WITH FRONT ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WIND AND SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWER. CLEARING BEHIND FRONT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RIDDLE SHORT TERM...ROGERS LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
330 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN OCCUR. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 20S LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE HAD. LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE CU/STRATOCU ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON ABOVE 3KFT. THIS WILL SCATTER OUT SUNDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD ARE THE WINDS...WHICH CONTINUE GUSTY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. OUT OF THE W TO SW OVERNIGHT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO W TO NW AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN STRENGTHEN FOR SUNDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT STILL STRONGEST ACROSS THE N...WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS CODED AROUND 35 KTS EKN...45 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ARA FROM THE W. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATE TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUNDAY NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE. MVFR CIGS MAY VARY IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 11/10/13 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H M L M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WERE FINALLY RECOVERING OUT OF THE 20S IN NRN WV EARLY THIS MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL GET STRONGER TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING FIRST THING THIS MORNING. 10-HR FUELS ARE GENERALLY 7-8 PERCENT AND DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD BE HIGHER TODAY. RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND FIRE DANGER FCST IS MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF HIGH THOUGH WORRIED THE HIGH AREAS MAY VERIFY LARGER AND THERE ARE A PLETHORA OF DRY LEAVES ABOUT. AT THIS TIME IT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE AN SPS WILL NOT NEED ISSUED SINCE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WORSE THAN RECENT DAYS OTHER THAN FUELS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM FIRE WEATHER...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
1141 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... FORECAST OUT WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER LAKE ERIE AND THE EAST END OF THE AREA. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SHOWERS CONTINUING MOST OF THE NIGHT AND HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WILL TAKE A MENTION AS FAR WEST AS KCLE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS KYNG. FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH SKIES SHOULD AVERAGE OUT TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPS HAVEN`T DONE MUCH SINCE SUNSET AND HAVE RAISED LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS. EVEN WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH BY DAYBREAK CAN`T SEE A 20 DEGREE DROP. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. NEXT MAIN WEATHER MAKER WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BASED ON 850MB TEMPS EXPECT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE FOR MONDAY HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIP TO END IN SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP BELOW 0C. DRY AIR FILLS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS DROP TO -12C BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB/LAKE INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME WITH FLOW FROM THE NORTH OFF LAKE HURON. WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THIS DEVELOPS IN LATER MODEL RUNS BUT WOULD EXPECT A LAKE HURON BAND SETTING UP SOMEWHERE WITH MULTIBAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKESHORE WITH A SHORT FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN QUICKLY THOUGH AND THEN THERE IS THE DRY AIR. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT THEN GET GOING AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE LAKES MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS. HAVE LIKELY POPS MONDAY WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING TO CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN BOOST BACK TO LIKELY NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TAPER TO CHANCE AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW QUICK THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FOR WED SO TEMPS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHSN ARE IN QUESTION. WILL TEND TO STAY CLOSE TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW WITH SMALL CHANCE SHSN ON WED THEN DRY WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION SHOULD DOMINATE MOST OF THE TIME THRU SAT ALTHOUGH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRI TO SLOW THE WARMING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY THEN STALLS OVER VIRGINIA FRI AND SAT. DRY AIR SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA THU THEN THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT BRINGS A BAND OF MOISTURE ON FRI SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON FRI AND ALSO ON SAT AS THE MOISTURE HANGS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR JUST RAIN. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CLOUDS WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ELSEWHERE THE CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND AND SOME SUNSHINE. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH ALOFT AFT 09Z/3AM EST. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS LIKE IT SHOULD JUST BE RAIN BUT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MONDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. && .MARINE... UPDATED TO CANCEL THE LOW WATER ADVISORY. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE WATER LEVEL TO FALL BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK. HOWEVER...THE WATER LEVEL COULD APPROACH THE CRITICAL MARK...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE IT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY TURN A SW FLOW TO WNW. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY KICK UP TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP SUSTAINED AT 30 KNOTS AND STAY WITH A SCA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT TO LESSEN THE FLOW ENOUGH FOR THE SCA TO END WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATER MON TO VEER THE FLOW TO NW AND INCREASE THE FLOW TO 30 KNOTS AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH VALLEY WED TO LESSEN THE FLOW AGAIN WHILE WINDS BACK TO THE SW. THE SCA MAY STILL NEED TO BE CONTINUED ON THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE AS THE FLOW MAY NOT DROP OFF ENOUGH. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ142-143. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ144>146. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...KUBINA SHORT TERM...TK LONG TERM...ADAMS AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...ADAMS/KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
455 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON MONDAY BEFORE A POLAR FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE AS THEY PRESS INTO PA FROM THE N. THE COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT AS SFC PRESSURE FIELD AND WIND SHOW LITTLE DISCONTINUITY. RH PROGS FROM RUC AND NAM DO INCREASE LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 8KFT...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO BE CONDUCIVE TO MAKING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NRN MTS AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES. 8H TEMPS DROP 4C IN THE NEXT 12 HRS. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT...THE CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL HELP TO STIFLE HEATING TODAY. THE DOWNSLOPE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE SE WILL HELP TEMPS RISE THERE. WILL KEEP BEST POPS IN THE N WHERE MDLS PLACE THE MEAGER QPF. THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN WHEN THE TEMPS THEN DROP ENOUGH IN THE NRN NTS AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS LOWER TO TURN PRECIP TO THE COLD SIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A LITTLE ANTICYCLONIC BUMP OVERNIGHT SHOULD DRY THINGS UP AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE. BUT THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE APPROACHING COLD AIR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON UNDER A 1047MB HIGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE WE ENJOY RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE DAY. CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY THOUGH...AND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE INTO WARREN COUNTY JUST AFTER NOON. TIMING IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALL PREV THINKING. FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE PRECIP MAKES IT DOWN THE HILLS INTO THE SERN COS. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. GOOD HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTIONS COULD DEVELOP ON NWRLY WINDS. TEMPS GO PRETTY COLD...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE SOME INTENSE SQUALLS. WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR POST-FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKES TUESDAY MORNING. A +3 STANDARD DEVIATION HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THE GIANT HIGH SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY LATE WEEK...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...BRINGING COLD DRY AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME NW FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER...THOUGH WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WARM UP THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP NOTED UPSTREAM ALONG FRONT AND ONLY SCT -SHRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY FROPA ACROSS NW PA. BIGGEST CONCERN MAY BE THE THREAT OF LLWS...THE RESULT OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR OVR THE W MTNS LATE TONIGHT...AS RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AM AT KBFD AND KJST. 18Z MDL DATA INDICATES FROPA WILL OCCUR ARND 09Z AT KBFD AND ARND 14Z AT KLNS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WNW WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA FROM LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN. MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD GATHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STRATOCU/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD WITH CIGS ARND 3 KFT. OUTLOOK... MON...EVENING SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS NW MTNS. TUE...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS KJST. WED AND THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1119 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .AVIATION... NO CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST OF SIX HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z... PERSISTING THROUGH 16Z. VLIFR VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP AT KAMA AND KGUY AROUND 12Z BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME UNTIL HIGHER CERTAINTY OF TIMING CAN BE ATTAINED. IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z...WITH CEILINGS DISIPATING OR LIFTING INTO VFR RANGE BY 20Z AT KAMA AND KGUY. QUICKER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KDHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH END OF FORECAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COCKRELL && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/ UPDATE... BIG CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS GRIDS AND FORECAST WERE TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH AND WEST TO BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO AND CANYON LINE. THE 00Z HRRR SHOWING VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE ACROSS TEXAS AND BEAVER COUNTIES...AND A LITTLE OF EASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY...SOUTH TO POTTER AND RANDALL COUNTIES EAST TO WHEELER AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY FROM 08Z AND 09Z SUNDAY TO 15Z SUNDAY. LATEST NAM ALSO SUPPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN HALF MILE IN DENSE FOG AT KAMA AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. ALSO UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER GRIDS WITH THE 00Z NAM IN THE SMOKE MANAGEMENT GRIDS AND SMOOTHED OUT THE HOURLY TEMPS BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z SUNDAY AND UPDATED DEW POINTS...WINDS...WEATHER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY GRIDS TONIGHT. ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT. SCHNEIDER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/ AVIATION... CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z SUNDAY... WHEN FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. LIFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND 15Z OR 16Z SUNDAY. IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RESUME AROUND 20Z SUNDAY AT KAMA AND KGUY...WITH QUICKER IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KDHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COCKRELL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/ DISCUSSION... THERE ARE THREE MAIN PERIODS OF INTEREST IN THIS FORECAST. TONIGHT...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...AND A RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE OFF THE CAPROCK...WHERE THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE A BIT DEEPER...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 40S...AND SATURATION COULD BE REACHED AS EARLY AS 1 AM. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERLY WINDS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE POOLING OFF THE CAPROCK. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION...THE RISK FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY DENSE FOG...IS LESS THUS HAVE NOT ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN A COMPLETE TURN FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS...THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF ALL TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL. THE FRONT IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS LATER ARRIVAL WILL BE HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY HIGHS AND A SHORTER WINDOW FOR THE DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL VERY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...THOUGH WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS...HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY NIGHT ONLY. JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JOHNSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY... HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE... OCHILTREE...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER. OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS. && $$ 03/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
333 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 THE MAIN FOCUS GOING INTO TONIGHT IS WITH THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS IT COMES THROUGH. CURRENTLY...A SWATH OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVERS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW LEFT OVER FROM A DEPARTING LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SKIES CLEAR OUT FURTHER TO THE WEST WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. 10.00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWINGING THIS RIDGE IN LATER THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT THESE PESKY LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL FORCING COMES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH THIS WAA BAND AS THERE WILL BE SOME FAIRLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT AS THIS FORCING COMES IN. SOME OF THE 10.00Z MESO MODELS SHOW SOME RETURNS ON THEIR REFLECTIVITY PRODUCTS...BUT THINKING THAT IT WOULD JUST BE VIRGA WITH THE RAIN DRYING UP BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. BY THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING/SATURATION BECOMES DEEP ENOUGH THAT SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THIS WAA BAND. THE FORCING BECOMES DEEPER OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN AS WELL WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT TO THE SOUTH. THIS DEEPER FORCING APPEARS TO GO ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN...BUT IT WILL START TO CHANGE OVER AS THE COLDER AIR COMES IN WITH THE COLD FRONT. NOT MUCH OF A WARM LAYER ALOFT OR A DEEP REFREEZE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...SO AM NOT THINKING THAT SLEET WILL OCCUR WITH THE RAIN JUST CHANGING STRAIGHT OVER TO SNOW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON MONDAY WITH THE WINDOW FOR ANY SNOW APPEARING TO BE VERY SMALL. THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IN A FRONTOGENETIC BAND THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD. DEEP SUBSIDENCE COMES IN QUICKLY THOUGH AND SHOULD SHUT OFF ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING. DUE TO THE LIMITED SHOT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE...EXPECT THAT ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY MINOR IF THEY EVEN OCCUR. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO -10C OR LOWER WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND. THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO LINGER ONLY FOR A FEW DAYS WITH TUESDAY LIKELY BEING THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS NOT GOING ABOVE FREEZING. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO KICK IN ALREADY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH PULLS A WARMER AIR MASS OFF OF THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 10.00Z GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE REGION IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH MEANS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AS ANY FORCING APPEARS TO STAY UP IN SOUTHERN CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 SECONDARY PUSH OF CLOUDS IS WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER BOTH SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE VFR BUT WILL LIKELY COME IN MVFR AT KRST GIVEN ITS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. THE 10.03Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELD THAN THE 10.00Z NAM AND KEEPS THE CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN UNTIL 12Z OR SO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THE NEXT ROUND OF VFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK BETTER OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE NAM SUGGEST THE WINDS AROUND TWO THOUSAND FEET COULD REACH 40 KNOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HALBACH LONG TERM...HALBACH AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1116 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE SOUTHWARD OF 850 TO 925 MB MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AT 800 MB THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN THIS INVERSION LOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCES ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE LOOP...THERE ARE CURRENTLY HOLES AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AND THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST IN THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DARKNESS NOT THAT FAR AWAY...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE RUC JUST IN CASE THE CURRENT MOISTURE THAT IS OUT THERE CAN SPREAD BELOW THE INVERSION. MEANWHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...THE CLOUD FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE AREA WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AS THE 925 TO 850 LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG 800 TO 600 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND 280-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WHERE THE 280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 30 MB. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE JUST A TRACE. ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 30 MB ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER BY THIS TIME...THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. LIKE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SINCE THE CONSRAW TENDS TO HANDLE THESE SITUATIONS THE BEST...WENT WITH IT FOR POPULATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN STABILIZE AND RISE A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE LACK OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILLS ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NORMALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8C. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION... TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY EVENING... AND THEN STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE. THE 280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO NOT FALL TO LESS THAN 30 MB UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL IT MOVED INTO THIS AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 SECONDARY PUSH OF CLOUDS IS WORKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE OVER BOTH SITES BY 06Z. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART ARE VFR BUT WILL LIKELY COME IN MVFR AT KRST GIVEN ITS HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATION. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. THE 10.03Z RAP LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE MOISTURE FIELD THAN THE 10.00Z NAM AND KEEPS THE CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND AND WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS IN UNTIL 12Z OR SO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS ALREADY DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THE NEXT ROUND OF VFR CEILINGS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD DECK SO CONFIDENCE ON ANY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP ACTUALLY REACHING THE SURFACE IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK BETTER OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE BETTER SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE NAM SUGGEST THE WINDS AROUND TWO THOUSAND FEET COULD REACH 40 KNOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1049 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW AND FLOODING THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WERE OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN AN OB WITH PRECIP IN IT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE OBSERVED A FEW GUSTS REACHING 34 TO 35 KNOTS. WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...SHOULD SEE THE GUSTINESS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT PRECIP ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST OF THE LOW...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THOUGH SOME SURFACE STABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...MARGINALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT PROGGED SOUNDINGS...THEY SHOW DECREASING SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK THIS IS CONSIDERABLY TOO OPTIMISTIC...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT ALSO ON THERMAL TROUGHING AND VEERING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z. CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN SO INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. DELTA T/S ARE ONLY AROUND 13-14C...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS AN INCH OVER NORTHERN VILAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH BACKING WINDS AND A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THEN A MID AND HIGH DECK SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. A 125KT JET AT 300MB COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A DECENT AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPSTREAM LAKES ARE NOT FROZEN YET AND IT SEEMS LIKE THEY CONTRIBUTE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAKS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO EXTREME AND WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AT TIMES. THE MAIN THING WORKING AGAINST A BIG EVENT IS THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND ALSO SUBSIDENCE. THINK THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS IN VILAS COUNTY. IT WILL BECOME MILDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE COLD AIR PASSES BY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. && .AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 LOW PRESSURE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AND DECREASING WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WSTRN WI SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MAINLY NC WI TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...AND CONDITIONS BECOME BRIEFLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE-EFFECT. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE REGION BY MID TO LATE SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013 THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS SHOWING WINDS INCREASING AT 900MB TONIGHT INTO THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SUPPORTIVE OF GALES OVER THE BAY OF GREEN BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT TO DOOR COUNTY. SO WITH COORDINATION FROM MQT...UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. SOME DISCUSSION OF UPGRADING TO GALES FARTHER SOUTH...BUT OFFSHORE WINDS AND SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT SUGGESTS THE HIGHER END GUSTS WILL OCCUR MORE TOWARDS OPEN LAKE THAN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......RDM AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 MULTIPLE BAND CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS NROTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS HAVING CLEAR CONNECTIONS WITH LAKE SUPERIOR CONVECTION. 12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION NEAR 650MB/-18C. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AROUND A 1002MB LOW ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTHEAST (LARGE AREA 3-4MB/3H PRESSURE RISES OVER MICHIGAN/ WISCONSIN). WHILE CONDITIONS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM RIDGING APPROACHES AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT/INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL...THIS IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PLENTY OF INERTIA WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY. DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WON`T HURT THE CAUSE EITHER...SO WILL SLOW DOWN THE "DIMINISHING" OF THIS EVENT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING (MAY END PRECIP LATE WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK WEST). GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. HAVE MADE SOME CONTORTIONS TO ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES...COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/GALE WARNINGS AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES FOR MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SWEPT THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR (SEEN ALREADY SUPPRESSING LAKE EFFECT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR) STARTS TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IDEA IN HAND. VERY MINIMAL COOLING TAKING PLACE...AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL RAIN AND SOME ADDITIONAL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/ QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE) ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP. MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS. WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE. THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 DRIER AIR ALREADY SWEEPING INTO NRN MICHIGAN AFTER EARLIER LAKE EFFECT FLARE UP. CIGS LOOKING TOUGH TO DISCERN BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR. LOWERING INVERSION AND MOISTURE STUCK UNDERNEATH LOOK LIKE MVFR WILL TRY AND HOLD ON. THIS SUPPORTED MORE SO BY UPSTREAM OBS OF PREDOMINANTLY MVFR....BEST SHOT AT VFR IS AT MBL. COULD BE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DRYING...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING IN LATE AND THIS EVENING. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SHOW OF WEATHER ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW UP TO 22-26KTS TODAY...LIGHTENING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST LATE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341. GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323- 342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SYNOPSIS...SMD SHORT TERM...DL LONG TERM...SMD AVIATION...SMD MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
643 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SWEPT THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR (SEEN ALREADY SUPPRESSING LAKE EFFECT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR) STARTS TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IDEA IN HAND. VERY MINIMAL COOLING TAKING PLACE...AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL RAIN AND SOME ADDITIONAL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/ QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE) ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP. MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS. WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE. THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 DRIER AIR ALREADY SWEEPING INTO NRN MICHIGAN AFTER EARLIER LAKE EFFECT FLARE UP. CIGS LOOKING TOUGH TO DISCERN BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW END VFR. LOWERING INVERSION AND MOISTURE STUCK UNDERNEATH LOOK LIKE MVFR WILL TRY AND HOLD ON. THIS SUPPORTED MORE SO BY UPSTREAM OBS OF PREDOMINANTLY MVFR....BEST SHOT AT VFR IS AT MBL. COULD BE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED DRYING...BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ADVANCING IN LATE AND THIS EVENING. QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE SHOW OF WEATHER ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS IN A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW UP TO 22-26KTS TODAY...LIGHTENING UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST LATE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ321. && $$ UPDATE...SD SYNOPSIS...SD SHORT TERM...DL LONG TERM...SD AVIATION...SD MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
906 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 900 AM ESTF: SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING UP FROM OK AND WRN KS. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HI-RES RAP HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF RECENT TRENDS AND SPREAD THIS CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. SO TODAY IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS NICE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT N OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON-ST.PAUL-FULLERTON MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. USED A BLEND OF GFS/EC/GEM 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND THIS SLASHED 7-8F OFF THE 350 AM GID FCST. OTHER MORE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THRU THE DAY AS WE WATCH HOW THINGS UNFOLD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS TO END UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS VALUES...TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM INHERITED VALUES...WITH READINGS GENERALLY 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ORD UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COULD SEE WINDS PICK UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BY AROUND 12Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED EARLY THEN HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY...DO NOT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST AS A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT WARM. ON TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. THIS TIME THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES START A WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT IT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME IS THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AT THE TERMINAL BY LATE MORNING AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 22KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD...BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR 5KFT BY 11/08Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...SAR LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...SAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
637 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...SWEEPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY... HIGH CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY THINNED AND SCATTERED EVEN SOUTH OF U.S. 64 AS OF THIS WRITING...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MOST CURRENT HRRR WRF SHOWED. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED MOST OF THE REMAINING CLOUDS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. AFTER A FEW MID AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS DEPART AND THE WEAK LIFT MOVES OFF WITH THEM...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN PLACE AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. 85MB THETA-E ACTUALLY DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY...AND K INDICES GO STRONGLY NEGATIVE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES...WINDS WILL VEER AND THERE WILL BE A FEW WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH...MAYBE A COUPLE JUST HIGHER THAN 20 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 WHERE THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE HIGHER VALUES JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE WITH MIXING. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND GOOD SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...67 TO 72. TONIGHT...FEW IF ANY CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN A DRY AIR MASS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT. A NOTICEABLE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH HELPS TO DIMINISH THE WIND OVER MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE MINS DUE TO THE CONCERN ABOUT THE COOLNESS OF THE AIR MASS UPSTREAM WITH THIS HIGH... ALTHOUGH JUST ENOUGH MIXING COULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN WHAT WILL BE FORECAST. STILL...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM SUNDAY... WINDS INCREASE ALOFT LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS A 90KT JET AT 300MB IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE POLAR FRONT SHOULD STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST AT 12Z TUESDAY... THOUGH APPROACHING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN 850MB LIFT INCREASES ON BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS. K INDICES REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND AN 850MB THETA-E ACTUALLY PERSISTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...ALTHOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN THE WINDS ALOFT... HIGH-LEVEL NAM AND GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS AND THE CANADIAN CLOUD COVER MODEL BOTH SUGGEST SOME MID- AND/OR HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64 FOR THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT...THE NAM MOISTURE FORECAST IS MUCH DRIER ALOFT COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH THE NAM HIGHER 300MB WINDS OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR AREAS OF AT LEAST HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT IF THE GFS WIND SPEED FORECAST AROUND 300MB VERIFIES THEN. WILL FORECAST A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH THAT...PLUS THE TYPICAL COOL GUIDANCE BIAS THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT. THICKNESSES SUGGEST HIGHS MONDAY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...60 TO 65. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AROUND 40. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 235 AM SUNDAY... FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: THE POLAR FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SE THROUGH NC ON TUESDAY... ALTHOUGH IT`S LOOKING LIKE IT WILL COME THROUGH A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MID LEVEL VORTEX MOVES ACROSS SE QUEBEC THROUGH THE MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THEN EAST... FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES BEFORE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH SLOWS AND CLOSES OFF AS A BAGGY MID LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL NC BY LATE WED. MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS... AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE LAST FEW RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE NRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 18Z AND INTO SE NC BY SUNSET... WITH COLDER AIR RUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO AN ATYPICAL TEMP PATTERN WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NRN CWA. GIVEN THE ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE POLAR FRONT WITH ITS REARWARD SLOPING ASCENT... WE SHOULD SEE A RAPID INCREASE IN CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT (JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB TROUGH). FORCING FOR ASCENT QUICKLY STRENGTHENS TUE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH... PARTICULARLY IN THE WRN CAROLINAS/ERN TN/NRN GA WHERE THE MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST AND VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING SATURATION FROM AROUND 925 MB UP TO 650 MB... DEEPEST IN THE WRN CWA INCLUDING THE TRIAD (WHERE LIFT WILL BE GREATEST)... AND ALL OF THIS SATURATION OCCURS BELOW 0C. THIS SATURATION ALSO EXTENDS UP BEYOND -15C FOR SEVERAL HOURS... MEANING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THE PRESENCE OF ICE ALOFT. HOWEVER... IT APPEARS THAT WHEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE BEST ALIGNED TEMPORALLY (MIDDAY TUE THROUGH TUE EVENING)... THE LOWEST 100 MB OR SO IS FAIRLY DRY... INCREASING THE ODDS OF EVAPORATION/SUBLIMATION OF ANY FALLING HYDROMETEORS... PLUS THE EARLIER PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT AND ANY PRECIP WILL MEAN THAT SURFACE TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP. SO WHILE WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME FLURRIES WITHIN THE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NRN COASTAL PLAIN... IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. OVERALL... ANY PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT WITH LOW COVERAGE (30% IN THE WRN CWA DOWN TO 10-20% IN THE CENTRAL/EAST) AND LOW AMOUNTS. FOLLOWING AVERAGE TIMING OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE SREF... WILL BRING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH AROUND NOON... DROPPING SOUTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... FINALLY EXITING THE SW CWA A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. A BIGGER STORY MAY END UP BEING THE STRONG SURGE OF WINDS BEGINNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE VERY EXPANSIVE AND DENSE ARCTIC HIGH PUSHING IN WILL DRAMATICALLY TIGHTEN THE MSLP GRADIENT SUCH THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM NEAR 50 NEAR THE VA BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WITH FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPS... RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SRN CWA WITH TEMPS NOT FALLING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND MSLP GRADIENT SLACKENS BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND HOLDING TEMPS UP A BIT DESPITE THE PLUMMETING DEW POINTS AND CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOWS 28-36. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IN A WORD: COLD. THE PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST AND SE OF CENTRAL NC (AS THE BAGGY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER COASTAL NC) WILL CAUSE A CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SWRLY UPPER JET CORE JUST OFF THE MIDATLANTIC AND NC COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING DPVA... RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER LIFT AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD FORM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SUCH THAT ANY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA... ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDINESS COULD BRUSH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE MSLP GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE BUT WITH A STEADY NNE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE HEART OF A VERY CHILLY HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST... HIGHS COULD BE 20 OR MORE DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL... AND MODELS AGREE ON MORNING 850 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -9C AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280 M. HIGHS 41-46. AS THE CORE OF THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NC WED NIGHT... WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND TEMPS SHOULD CRASH... AND EXPECT LOWS OF 22-29. BOTH OF THESE HIGHS AND LOWS WED/WED NIGHT SHOULD HOLD ABOVE RECORD COLD LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DRY AND WARMING. THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY PARKED OVER NC/VA INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY EASE OUT TO SEA... SUPPLANTED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST... AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY... BUT AS THIS CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD FRI INTO SAT... INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO NC... WHILE THE LOWER-LEVEL 925-850 MB FLOW FROM THE SE AND S SHOULD BRING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MOISTURE FOR INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS AS WELL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S THU... RISING TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S FRI AND LOW-MID 60S SAT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S THU NIGHT RISING TO MID 30S-AROUND 40 FRI NIGHT. -GIH && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 635 AM SUNDAY... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD. A FEW MID AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEPART...LEAVING CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE. WINDS VEER TO WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND A DRY SURFACE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE COULD BE A FEW LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS KNOTS...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 20KT NORTH OF KFAY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVENING CONTINUE TO VEER AND BECOME NORTHERLY UNDER 10KT...LIGHT NORTHEAST LATE. BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY. IMMEDIATELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE... EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND WINDS NEAR 2000FT TO 3000FT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST 30 TO 35KT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF THESE TOWARD THE TRIAD. && .FIRE WEATHER... AS OF 305 PM SUNDAY... WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 64. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE ONE-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES AROUND 5 TO 6 PERCENT AND TEN-HOUR FUELS JUST BELOW 10 PERCENT...WILL HIGHLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...AND PLAN TO DISCUSS ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THE NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE DURING THE MORNING FOR ANY NEEDED INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. && .CLIMATE... HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 13TH AND RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER 14TH. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP 11/13: RDU: 39 (1911) GSO: 35 (1907) FAY: 43 (1976) RECORD LOW 11/14: RDU: 20 (1977) GSO: 19 (1986) FAY: 24 (1932) && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJF NEAR TERM...DJF SHORT TERM...DJF LONG TERM...HARTFIELD AVIATION...DJF FIRE WEATHER...DJF/WSS CLIMATE...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
543 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN OCCUR. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 20S LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE HAD. LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS AS IT CROSSES EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CU/STRATOCU ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH BASES ABOVE 3KFT. THIS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD ARE THE WINDS...WHICH CONTINUE GUSTY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV. OUT OF THE W TO SW EARLY THIS MORNING...THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SWITCH TO W TO NW ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THIS MORNING AND THEN STRENGTHEN FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT STILL STRONGEST ACROSS THE N...WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS CODED OVER 30 KTS EKN...AROUND 40 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHEST RIDGES. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN GO CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. IN THE MEANTIME...MODERATE TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE. MVFR CIGS MAY VARY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WERE FINALLY RECOVERING OUT OF THE 20S IN NRN WV EARLY THIS MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL GET STRONGER TODAY...IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSING FIRST THING THIS MORNING. 10-HR FUELS ARE GENERALLY 7-8 PERCENT AND DO NOT SEE WHY THEY WOULD BE HIGHER TODAY. RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND FIRE DANGER FCST IS MODERATE WITH POCKETS OF HIGH THOUGH WORRIED THE HIGH AREAS MAY VERIFY LARGER AND THERE ARE A PLETHORA OF DRY LEAVES ABOUT. AT THIS TIME IT AGAIN LOOKS LIKE AN SPS WILL NOT NEED ISSUED SINCE CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE WORSE THAN RECENT DAYS OTHER THAN FUELS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY DRY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM FIRE WEATHER...TRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
654 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN ON MONDAY BEFORE A POLAR FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SLIGHT WIND SHIFT PUTS THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE SEMI-INTENSE SHOWER/SQUALL IN THE NRN TIER COS AT 12Z. RH PROGS FROM RUC AND NAM DO INCREASE LAYER OF MOISTURE BELOW 8KFT...AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO BE CONDUCIVE TO MAKING SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST LIFT APPEARS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN MTS AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES. 8H TEMPS DROP 4C IN THE NEXT 12 HRS. WHILE NOT TERRIBLY SIGNIFICANT...THE CLOUD COVER IN THE NW WILL HELP TO STIFLE HEATING TODAY. THE DOWNSLOPE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE SE WILL HELP TEMPS RISE THERE. WILL KEEP BEST POPS IN THE N WHERE MDLS PLACE THE MEAGER QPF. THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RAIN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN WHEN THE TEMPS THEN DROP ENOUGH IN THE NRN NTS AND THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPS LOWER TO TURN PRECIP TO THE COLD SIDE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A LITTLE ANTICYCLONIC BUMP OVERNIGHT SHOULD DRY THINGS UP AND CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE. BUT THE FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE APPROACHING COLD AIR. THIS SHOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON UNDER A 1047MB HIGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY WHILE WE ENJOY RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE DAY. CLOUDS INCREASE QUICKLY THOUGH...AND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE INTO WARREN COUNTY JUST AFTER NOON. TIMING IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALL PREV THINKING. FRONTAL PRECIP SHOULD TURN TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT...BUT LITTLE PRECIP MAKES IT DOWN THE HILLS INTO THE SERN COS. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START UP AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND A DUSTING IS EXPECTED ON THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. GOOD HURON/GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTIONS COULD DEVELOP ON NWRLY WINDS. TEMPS GO PRETTY COLD...AND THIS SHOULD MAKE SOME INTENSE SQUALLS. WILL LIMIT ACCUMS ON THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR POST-FRONT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WILL BE CROSSING THE LAKES TUESDAY MORNING. A +3 STANDARD DEVIATION HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS. THE GIANT HIGH SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY LATE WEEK...AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO INCHES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES A HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION...BRINGING COLD DRY AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME NW FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO LINGER...THOUGH WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THROUGH THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WARM UP THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL PA THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE PRECIP NOTED UPSTREAM ALONG FRONT AND ONLY SCT -SHRA EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY FROPA ACROSS NW PA AS IT DOES SO. THREAT OF LLWS REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY TAF SITES WHERE THE RESULT OF STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC. SFC WINDS ELSEWHERE HAVE BECOME MDT FROM THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALL AIRFIELDS ARE VFR AT THIS POINT WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR OVER THE W MTNS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG FRONT ASCENDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MDL SOUNDINGS EVEN SUGGEST A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY AM AT KBFD AND KJST. FROPA EXPECTED AT KBFD SOON AND AT KLNS ARND 14Z-15Z. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WNW WIND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL PA FROM LATE AM THRU LATE AFTN. MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. HOWEVER...COLD AIR FLOWING OVR LK ERIE SHOULD GATHER ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE STRATOCU/SCT FLURRIES AT KBFD WITH CIGS ARND 3 KFT. OUTLOOK... MON...EVENING SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS NW MTNS. TUE...EARLY AM SHSN/REDUCED CIGS POSS KJST. WED AND THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DANGELO NEAR TERM...DANGELO SHORT TERM...DANGELO LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU AVIATION...GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
553 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... L0W PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... UPDATE 1800 EDT: A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AS OF 6 PM. ANOTHER BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM MILLINOCKET TO DANFORTH WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1>6. THE HRRR SHOWS THE STEADY SNOW ENDING BY 03 UTC/10 PM FOR ALL ZONES. WILL REEVALUATE THE ADVISORY END TIME FOR NORTHEAST ZONES BY 9 PM. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WITH SNOW CONTINUING TO AFFECT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH...SNOW WILL BE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST OVER EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY BETWEEN PRESQUE ISLE AND HOULTON WHERE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES WILLB BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FURTHER SOUTH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END WITH LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WINDING DOWN THROUGH THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE MINOR IF ANY. THESE FLURRIES WIND DOWN MONDAY MORNING WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS SOUTH AND MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW SQUALL WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS MONDAY EVENING. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING IN COLDER AIR LATER MONDAY NIGHT. WET ROADS MAY BECOME ICY AS TEMPS FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR. TUESDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COLD AS THE TROUGH MOVES BY TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS AND WIND CHILLS MAY REMAIN IN THE TEENS IN MANY SPOTS. SOME FLURRIES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BREEZE LIKELY CONTINUING. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY OVER THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND ACROSS MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DOWNEAST WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ON WEDNESDAY AND A CHILLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING ONTO THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE LAKE WEEK PERIOD BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE MAY CONTINUE. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL THEN BE MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST AND SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEING A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS SOME WARM ADVECTION MOISTURE BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS AS THE MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: EXPECT MAINLY IFR IN THE NORTH THROUGH AFTERNOON IN SNOW WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SNOW WINDS DOWN AND EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR HEADING INTO MONDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT HOWEVER STILL EXPECT STRATUS TO BRING MVFR/IFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATER TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST LATE MONDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST AND VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DOWNEAST ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BECOME MVFR IN SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY DROP BELOW SCA ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001-002. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003>006. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI SHORT TERM...BLOOMER LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI/BLOOMER MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OKULSKI/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
100 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY WILL NOT REALLY BE THE STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BLAST IN HERE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FOR A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND BLOWING SNOW CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE SNOWS WILL NOT END UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...WILL TAKE SHAPE AS RAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...MAYBE NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1059 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 MULTIPLE BAND CONVECTION STILL GOING STRONG ACROSS NROTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS HAVING CLEAR CONNECTIONS WITH LAKE SUPERIOR CONVECTION. 12Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION NEAR 650MB/-18C. 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TIGHT CYCLONIC GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AROUND A 1002MB LOW ALONG THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO PUSHING SOUTHEAST (LARGE AREA 3-4MB/3H PRESSURE RISES OVER MICHIGAN/ WISCONSIN). WHILE CONDITIONS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT WILL WANE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM RIDGING APPROACHES AND MID LEVELS DRY OUT/INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL...THIS IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PLENTY OF INERTIA WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY. DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WON`T HURT THE CAUSE EITHER...SO WILL SLOW DOWN THE "DIMINISHING" OF THIS EVENT UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING (MAY END PRECIP LATE WEST OF THE M-37 CORRIDOR AS WINDS BEGIN TO BACK WEST). GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. HAVE MADE SOME CONTORTIONS TO ONGOING MARINE HEADLINES...COMBINATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES/GALE WARNINGS AND A GALE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST LOWER NEARSHORE ZONES FOR MONDAY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 520 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALREADY SWEPT THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND HAD REINVIGORATED LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. DRIER AIR (SEEN ALREADY SUPPRESSING LAKE EFFECT OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR) STARTS TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE THIS IDEA IN HAND. VERY MINIMAL COOLING TAKING PLACE...AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL RAIN AND SOME ADDITIONAL SWITCHOVER TO SNOW WILL LEAD TO VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 LET THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUE! MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INITIALLY WILL DEAL WITH ONGOING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...AND JUST WHAT TYPE IT WILL BE THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER THAT...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BREAK BY LATE TODAY AND THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...BUT WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A DECENT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP BAND MAKING AN APPEARANCE VERY LATE TONIGHT (AND INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL) AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION. EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS PLACES A 1002MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ONTARIO/ QUEBEC BORDER EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH AN OK DUMP OF COOLER AIR ALOFT ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES (H8 TEMPS AROUND -5/6C PER LATEST RAP ANALYSIS). PERIODIC SPOKES OF DEEPER MOISTURE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP...WITH SOME WELL ORGANIZED BANDS HAVING MADE AN APPEARANCE...PARTICULARLY OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR UP AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING TOWARD THE FAR WESTERN LAKES...IN ADVANCE OF QUITE THE STRONG COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. FIRST THINGS FIRST...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD EASILY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY AS STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AND THE THERMAL REGIME ACTUALLY COOLS SLIGHTLY THROUGH 15-18Z. GRADUAL INTRUSION OF SAID COOLER AIR SHOULD REMOVE ENOUGH OF THE CURRENT WARM NOSE TO KICK MUCH OF THE PRECIP OVER TO JUST SNOW OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND PERHAPS EASTERN UPPER...WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGESTING NO BETTER THAN A 1-2C WARM LAYER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMBINE THAT WITH ENOUGH SHEAR FOR BANDED STRUCTURES...AND THERE COULD BE A SPOT OR TWO THAT PICKS UP A QUICK HALF INCH...THOUGH SUSPECT THAT WOULD BE MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN OR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST A LITTLE TOO WARM. LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARMING THERMAL REGIME WITH TIME INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES...SHOULD HELP BRING ABOUT AN END TO LAKE PRECIP BY 21Z...ALL AS SHORTWAVE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. THAT SETUP SHOULD GIVE US A FAIRLY QUIET EVENING...THOUGH MAY STILL DEAL WITH SOME PESKY LOWER LAKE CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND PROBABLY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE REAL STORY WILL COME TOWARD 09Z OR SO AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. GUIDANCE TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HEAVILY FAVORED A BAND OF FRONTAL PRECIP ALONG THIS FEATURE GIVEN SUCH A STRONG PUSH OF DEEPER COLD AIR...LIKELY ENHANCED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY RE-STRENGTHENING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AS SOME VERY COLD AIR ALOFT CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SETUP PLAY OUT NUMEROUS TIMES BEFORE...AND EXPECT WE WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP MARCH FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT SUPPORTING SOME FAIRLY HEFTY LIQUID AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES. THE TROUBLE WITH THAT IS THAT THINGS LOOK PLENTY COLD/DRY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM THE GET GO...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL PROBABLY DEAL WITH INITIALLY JUST RAIN...BEFORE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD ENDS (I.E. SUNRISE MONDAY). COMBINE WHAT COULD EASILY BE A QUICK 2-3" OF SNOW WITH INCREASING WINDS/FALLING TEMPS AND A SLOPPY MORNING COMMUTE IS ON TAP...AGAIN ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVENT CERTAINLY LOOKS HEADLINE-WORTHY...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MAKE THAT FINAL DETERMINATION BASED ON THE LATEST TIMING/FRONTAL POSITION DATA. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 FORECAST WILL START OUT WITH A BANG RIGHT OFF THE BAT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALREADY HAVE BLOWN THROUGH EASTERN UPPER...WHILE MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH NRN LOWER. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS INITIALLY LIGHT EARLY ON IN EASTERN UPPER. HOWEVER...H8 TEMPS PLUMMETING TO -14C RESULTS IN EXTREME OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR GUARANTEED ACTIVITY. THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE IN NW LOWER...WHERE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE ONGOING...RESULTING IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND SHORELINE RAIN. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FRONT...NICE FGEN SIGNAL...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS BLOWING UP FOR A FEW HOURS. SNOWFLAKES LIKELY GETTING LARGER WITH GREATER LIFT DEVELOPING IN THE DGZ TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AS INSTABILITY REALLY GETS CRANKING. AFTER A LULL...IN INTENSITY...THE NW FLOW REGIMES WILL GET RE-ENERGIZED AGAIN AS BETTER MOISTURE (ALTHOUGH NOT IMPRESSIVE) ARRIVES THROUGH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DO VEER MORE NNW THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO LETTING UP. MOISTURE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ADVANCING HIGHER PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOWS. THE FRONTAL BLAST SNOWFALL IN NW LOWER IS STILL LOOKING TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LIKELY HEADLINES FOR SNOWS AT THE MORNING COMMUTE...OBVIOUS TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. NICE IMPACT CONSIDERING ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF DAY. LESSER AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. COULD FORESEE A HEADLINE NOW...BUT TIMING OF ACTUAL FRONT AND TIMING OF MAIN IMPACTS STILL JUST A TOUCH TOO UNCERTAIN. PROBABLY GOING TO BE AN ADVISORY WITH AN SPS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. TUESDAY NIGHT...FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES DOWN THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH LIKELY LITTLE FANFARE. IN THE LOW LEVELS...WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK AND BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE ALSO WARMING. CAN FORESEE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES...BEFORE LOADS OF DRY AIR TOO MUCH WARM AIR SWEEP IN OVERNIGHT TO END THINGS. WEDNESDAY ONWARD...NOT LOOKING ALL THAT EXCITING. A NO PRECIP DAY WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING. BROAD ROCKIES UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS WITH SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A SLOW AND GRADUAL TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WORKS UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO NRN MICHIGAN MAYBE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE BETTER AND STILL FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH. NOT REALLY THE GREATEST OF RAIN CHANCE...BUT A BONA FIDE SMALL 30 PERCENT WORDING IS APPROPRIATE. THIS BROAD TROUGHING LINGERS INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER ENERGY AND BETTER GULF TAP ADVECTING STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND THROUGH ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN OVER NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STARTING AS RAIN THEN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 250 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 WELL...IT`S NOVEMBER...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY WORK WEEK. CURRENT GALES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...HANGING ON THE LONGEST OVER LAKE HURON. WE SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT...BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME VERY COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS FOR ALL THE WATERS. PROBABLY LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH FINALLY SOME HINTS THAT THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE WATERS. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345-346. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341. GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR LMZ323- 342-344>346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JPB SYNOPSIS...SMD SHORT TERM...DL LONG TERM...SMD MARINE...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1146 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 FCST IS EVOLVING CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED IN THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. CLOUDS HAVE THINNED AND BROKEN UP IN SPOTS...BUT OVERALL TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS AND BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY REMAINS. NO CHANGE FROM BELOW. UPDATE ISSUED AT 906 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 900 AM ESTF: SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FCST UPDATE. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS MOVING UP FROM OK AND WRN KS. THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HI-RES RAP HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF RECENT TRENDS AND SPREAD THIS CLOUDINESS OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. SO TODAY IS NOT LOOKING QUITE AS NICE AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT N OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON-ST.PAUL-FULLERTON MAY ESCAPE WITH JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. USED A BLEND OF GFS/EC/GEM 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS AND THIS SLASHED 7-8F OFF THE 350 AM GID FCST. OTHER MORE MODEST ADJUSTMENTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THRU THE DAY AS WE WATCH HOW THINGS UNFOLD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 ANOTHER NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SURFACE HIGH...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM THIS MORNINGS VALUES...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS TO END UP BEING VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS VALUES...TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND RAISED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM INHERITED VALUES...WITH READINGS GENERALLY 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENTERS NEBRASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HELPING TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ANTICIPATED COLD/ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ORD UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COULD SEE WINDS PICK UP ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN BY AROUND 12Z. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE REACHED EARLY THEN HAVE STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LOWS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TIGHTENS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE WINDS ALOFT ARE ONLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY...DO NOT EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONG. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST AS A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A BIT WARM. ON TUESDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN. THIS TIME THERE IS WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES START A WARMING TREND. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT IT WASHES OUT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME IS THAT THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 THIS AFTERNOON: VFR CIGS AROUND 4K FT WILL INVADE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SSE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY G18 KTS OR SO. TONIGHT: VFR CIGS AROUND 4K FT WILL DEPART TO THE E LEAVING JUST A COUPLE SHREDS OF CIRRUS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS AND SHIFT TO SSW. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS AROUND 09Z WITH A SECOND WIND SHIFT TO WNW. MON: MVFR OVC INVADES BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NNE AND INCREASE TO 15 KTS AND GUST 20-25 KTS. CIG CONFIDENCE: HIGH VSBY CONFIDENCE: HIGH WIND CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM DUE TO MINOR ISSUES WITH TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS WX CONFIDENCE: HIGH && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HALBLAUB SHORT TERM...SAR LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030AM UPDATE. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT...BUT WITH MOISTURE SO SHALLOW...NO POPS. WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN OCCUR. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 20S LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE HAD. LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 16Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY... BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS ARE CODED 30 TO 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A GUST TO 45 KTS OVER THE HIGHEST OF RIDGES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WITH SCT CU OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SOME MVFR OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL CLEAR...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY...WITH VFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AROUND 18Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. 10-HR FUELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6-8 PERCENT RANGE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S...SO FIRE DANGER FCST IS MOSTLY MODERATE. NO RED FLAG WARNING IS EXPECTED...BUT ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IS PRESENT. HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PER FORESTRY REQUEST FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JMV FIRE WEATHER...JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
531 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES FIRST THING THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TONIGHT. STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1030AM UPDATE. ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS WITH PASSAGE OF COOL FRONT...BUT WITH MOISTURE SO SHALLOW...NO POPS. WINDS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND LACKING ICE CRYSTALS FOR THE MOST PART...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE SOMETHING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS MORNING BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE STRATOCU WILL PERSIST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FORM OVER NRN WV TODAY...ALL OF THIS DISSIPATING THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS I FROM THE W FOR TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE FRONT IS THE GUSTY WINDS EITHER SIDE OF IT BUT STRONGER ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH. USED THE RUC ALGORITHM TOOL WHICH GENERATES GUSTS INTO THE 20S...EXCEPT 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EVEN AROUND 40 KTS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES TODAY. BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR DEW POINTS SUGGESTS SOME 20S WHICH WILL GET RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON TO GO WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SEE FIRE SECTION. THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. HIGHS TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED GOOD WITH WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE TODAY...VALUES CLOSE TO BIAS CORRECTED MOS. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECOUPLE TONIGHT. AS DRY AS IT IS...ROLLING WITH MAINLY FOG FREE FCST FROM GUIDANCE TONIGHT. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE WINDS KEEPING UP. DID ADJUST DEW POINTS DOWN VIA ADJMET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING UPSTREAM...THEY OUGHT TO WIND UP ALMOST AS LOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE AHEAD OF IT YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... OVERALL DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO START THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS IN STORE...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND CREATE A QUICK CHANGE OVER IN PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN...TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...BEFORE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO EITHER REMAIN RATHER STEADY...OR CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BELOW 0C...WITH GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH EXPECTED...AM STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF BURST OF SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS. MAY STILL SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON RATE OF SNOWFALL TUESDAY MORNING...AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY HAVE CODED UP LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN WV ZONES AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES. STILL DOESNT APPEAR AS THOUGH A PROLONGED UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE FLOW SHOULD TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS UPPER TROUGH SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORIES IN THE HWO FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT WHEN MORE FINE TUNING CAN OCCUR. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH DRIER...MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 20S LOWLANDS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS...COLD NOVEMBER AIR SETTLES IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HAD TO HANG ON TO SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT SHOULD GET A QUICKLY CLEARING SKY. THE DOMINANT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DRY EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT ALSO A SLOW RECOVERY TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BE HAD. LOW TEENS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY OVER THE SNOWSHOE AREA AND THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...WITH LOW TO MID 20S DOWN IN THE LOWLANDS. MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ANYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE SUN IN THE FORECAST THAT DAY TO ASSIST IN THE MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS. EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 16Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY... BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THE MAIN IMPACT THIS PERIOD IS THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KTS OR SO...EVEN HIGHER OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HAVE GUSTS ARE CODED 30 TO 35 KTS...POSSIBLY A GUST TO 45 KTS OVER THE HIGHEST OF RIDGES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA WITH SCT CU OVER THE SOUTH...BUT SOME MVFR OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS. WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE ARA FROM THE W. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUSTY WINDS WILL TEND TO FLUCTUATE. MVFR CIGS MAY VARY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY VSBY IN SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .FIRE WEATHER... GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THE HIGHEST MOUNTAINS. 10-HR FUELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY IN THE 6-8 PERCENT RANGE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S...SO FIRE DANGER FCST IS MOSTLY MODERATE. NO RED FLAG WARNING IS EXPECTED...BUT ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IS PRESENT. HAVE ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT PER FORESTRY REQUEST FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...TRM FIRE WEATHER...TRM/JMV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
140 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO FURTHER REFINE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE...SURFACE OBS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION NWP TRENDS. SPECIFICALLY...HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ AVIATION... LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRATUS DECK IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO KLBB BY 19Z. CURRENT CLEARING LINE IS TIMED INTO KCDS AT 20Z...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY KEEP KCDS IN/NEAR MVFR CIGS PERIODICALLY THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE TERMINALS MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE IFR CONDITIONS REFLECTED AT KCDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB FOR EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ UPDATE... LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND WAS LYING EAST AND NORTH OF A DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO MEADOW TO TAHOKA TO JUSTICEBURG TO SWENSON LINE AS OF 16Z. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FOG WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE WAS STILL ADVANCING WEST. WE CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE FOG ADVISORY PAST 16Z...BUT RECENT TRENDS AT KLBB AND KPVW SHOW FOG SLOWLY THINNING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 SM. THIS TREND IS CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL WEB CAMS AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH BOTH KAMA AND KCDS WERE STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD THROUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST AND THE HWO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DO SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE AND DENSITY SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY OR SO...THOUGH REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER. IT APPEARS THE STRATUS DECK MAY HANG ON MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES AND FOR THIS REASON DID BUMP DOWN FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN REALITY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IF CLOUDS PERSIST ALL DAY...THOUGH THEY COULD YET SEE A LITTLE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE TRENDS DID INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DELAYING THE RETURN OF SUN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ SHORT TERM... FOG BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE AND PERSISTENT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THERMALLY INDUCED MIXING...BUT WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE CEILINGS SLOW TO LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES...VEER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWLY ERODING STRATUS UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION. FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 70 WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AND TRY TO ADVECT NORTH FROM THE BIG COUNTRY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. LONG TERM... NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE SONORAN DESERT UP THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A 508 DAM LOW WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILST DRAGGING A POTENT TROUGH AXIS INTO OUR AREA BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. OUT WEST...UPPER LOW WILL COME ASHORE UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR DUE IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NWP HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM/ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY PROBABLY WONT GET OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE 30S NORTHWEST AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 20S CENTRAL/EAST AND PROBABLY TEENS NORTHWEST...WELL...AT LEAST MULESHOE. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING THOUGH PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS /STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE/ EXISTS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST BUT THE NWP SOLUTIONS ARE NOT YET CONVINCING. AND IN THE LATTER EXTENDED...THE MJO ENTERED A WEAK PHASE 2 BACK ON THE 5TH OR 6TH. THIS MAY SUGGEST A COLD SNAP AROUND TUE/WED OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 41 72 32 40 25 / 0 0 20 10 0 TULIA 43 70 30 41 23 / 0 0 20 10 0 PLAINVIEW 44 71 32 42 24 / 0 0 20 10 0 LEVELLAND 46 72 37 43 27 / 0 0 20 20 10 LUBBOCK 47 71 37 42 25 / 0 0 20 20 10 DENVER CITY 46 69 38 46 29 / 0 0 20 20 10 BROWNFIELD 46 71 35 43 27 / 0 0 20 20 10 CHILDRESS 47 74 36 46 24 / 0 0 20 10 0 SPUR 49 73 37 43 25 / 0 10 20 20 0 ASPERMONT 50 74 42 42 25 / 0 10 20 20 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1155 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .AVIATION... LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STRATUS DECK IS ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO KLBB BY 19Z. CURRENT CLEARING LINE IS TIMED INTO KCDS AT 20Z...BUT ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT MAY KEEP KCDS IN/NEAR MVFR CIGS PERIODICALLY THROUGH MUCH OR ALL OF THE THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE TERMINALS MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THOUGH EXACTLY HOW LOW VISIBILITIES DROP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE IFR CONDITIONS REFLECTED AT KCDS AND LIFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB FOR EARLY MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH WILL VEER FROM EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ UPDATE... LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND WAS LYING EAST AND NORTH OF A DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO MEADOW TO TAHOKA TO JUSTICEBURG TO SWENSON LINE AS OF 16Z. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FOG WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE WAS STILL ADVANCING WEST. WE CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE FOG ADVISORY PAST 16Z...BUT RECENT TRENDS AT KLBB AND KPVW SHOW FOG SLOWLY THINNING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 SM. THIS TREND IS CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL WEB CAMS AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH BOTH KAMA AND KCDS WERE STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD THROUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST AND THE HWO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DO SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE AND DENSITY SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY OR SO...THOUGH REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER. IT APPEARS THE STRATUS DECK MAY HANG ON MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES AND FOR THIS REASON DID BUMP DOWN FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN REALITY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IF CLOUDS PERSIST ALL DAY...THOUGH THEY COULD YET SEE A LITTLE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE TRENDS DID INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DELAYING THE RETURN OF SUN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ SHORT TERM... FOG BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE AND PERSISTENT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THERMALLY INDUCED MIXING...BUT WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE CEILINGS SLOW TO LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES...VEER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWLY ERODING STRATUS UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION. FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 70 WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AND TRY TO ADVECT NORTH FROM THE BIG COUNTRY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. LONG TERM... NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE SONORAN DESERT UP THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A 508 DAM LOW WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILST DRAGGING A POTENT TROUGH AXIS INTO OUR AREA BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. OUT WEST...UPPER LOW WILL COME ASHORE UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR DUE IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NWP HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM/ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY PROBABLY WONT GET OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE 30S NORTHWEST AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 20S CENTRAL/EAST AND PROBABLY TEENS NORTHWEST...WELL...AT LEAST MULESHOE. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING THOUGH PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS /STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE/ EXISTS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST BUT THE NWP SOLUTIONS ARE NOT YET CONVINCING. AND IN THE LATTER EXTENDED...THE MJO ENTERED A WEAK PHASE 2 BACK ON THE 5TH OR 6TH. THIS MAY SUGGEST A COLD SNAP AROUND TUE/WED OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 66 41 72 32 40 / 0 0 0 20 10 TULIA 62 43 70 30 41 / 0 0 0 20 10 PLAINVIEW 65 44 71 32 42 / 0 0 0 20 10 LEVELLAND 69 46 72 37 43 / 0 0 0 20 20 LUBBOCK 68 47 71 37 42 / 0 0 0 20 20 DENVER CITY 71 46 69 38 46 / 0 0 0 20 20 BROWNFIELD 71 46 71 35 43 / 0 0 0 20 20 CHILDRESS 62 47 74 36 46 / 0 0 0 20 10 SPUR 68 49 73 37 43 / 0 0 10 20 20 ASPERMONT 69 50 74 42 42 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1017 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 .UPDATE... LARGE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND WAS LYING EAST AND NORTH OF A DIMMITT TO LITTLEFIELD TO MEADOW TO TAHOKA TO JUSTICEBURG TO SWENSON LINE AS OF 16Z. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FOG WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE/RETREAT NORTHWARD...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE WAS STILL ADVANCING WEST. WE CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE FOG ADVISORY PAST 16Z...BUT RECENT TRENDS AT KLBB AND KPVW SHOW FOG SLOWLY THINNING FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 SM. THIS TREND IS CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL WEB CAMS AROUND THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH BOTH KAMA AND KCDS WERE STILL REPORTING DENSE FOG. GIVEN THE OVERALL TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG REMAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HAZARD THROUGH A SHORT TERM FORECAST AND THE HWO. LATEST RAP AND HRRR DO SUGGEST FOG COVERAGE AND DENSITY SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY OR SO...THOUGH REMAINING SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER. IT APPEARS THE STRATUS DECK MAY HANG ON MUCH OR ALL OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES AND FOR THIS REASON DID BUMP DOWN FORECAST HIGHS SLIGHTLY...INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN REALITY...HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO HIT 60 IF CLOUDS PERSIST ALL DAY...THOUGH THEY COULD YET SEE A LITTLE SUN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE TRENDS DID INCREASED SKY COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WHILE DELAYING THE RETURN OF SUN TO THE CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. THE UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ AVIATION... DENSE FOG LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KCDS THROUGH ABOUT 15-16Z...PRODUCING VLIFR CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/4 STATUTE MILE. EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE BY 16Z WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR CRITERIA...FURTHER IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND 21Z. KLBB WILL SEE STRATUS/FOG MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING WITH AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD. THROUGH 15-16Z...WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MID-LATE MORNING. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TONIGHT ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOME STRATUS AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT BELIEVE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS JUNCTURE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013/ SHORT TERM... FOG BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS SPREAD SOUTH AND WEST THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE RIDGING MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FOG WILL BE MOST DENSE AND PERSISTENT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN THE MID 40S. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX OUT FOR THE MOST PART BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF THERMALLY INDUCED MIXING...BUT WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE CEILINGS SLOW TO LIFT. IN ADDITION...THE CONTINUATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH TRACKING EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WILL...ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES...VEER WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO MAINTAIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SLOWLY ERODING STRATUS UNDERNEATH A STUBBORN TEMPERATURE INVERSION. FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TOPPING OUT RIGHT AROUND 70 WHERE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLIER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER AND TRY TO ADVECT NORTH FROM THE BIG COUNTRY ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S WITH READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. LONG TERM... NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM THE SONORAN DESERT UP THE COAST OF WESTERN CANADA. TO OUR NORTHEAST...A 508 DAM LOW WILL DROP INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILST DRAGGING A POTENT TROUGH AXIS INTO OUR AREA BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. OUT WEST...UPPER LOW WILL COME ASHORE UP IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA. THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG DUMP OF COLD AIR DUE IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. NWP HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE NAM/ECM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND LIGHT POST FRONTAL PRECIP CONTINUES TO LOOK REASONABLE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY PROBABLY WONT GET OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS THE 30S NORTHWEST AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS NOW. ANY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE LIGHT. INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOWS WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE 20S CENTRAL/EAST AND PROBABLY TEENS NORTHWEST...WELL...AT LEAST MULESHOE. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY BUT DOES NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR INTO OUR AREA BEFORE RETREATING THOUGH PERHAPS A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS /STILL BELOW MENTIONABLE/ EXISTS IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE A BIT HIGHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LEE TROUGH TO OUR WEST BUT THE NWP SOLUTIONS ARE NOT YET CONVINCING. AND IN THE LATTER EXTENDED...THE MJO ENTERED A WEAK PHASE 2 BACK ON THE 5TH OR 6TH. THIS MAY SUGGEST A COLD SNAP AROUND TUE/WED OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 66 41 72 32 40 / 0 0 0 20 10 TULIA 62 43 70 30 41 / 0 0 0 20 10 PLAINVIEW 65 44 71 32 42 / 0 0 0 20 10 LEVELLAND 69 46 72 37 43 / 0 0 0 20 20 LUBBOCK 68 47 71 37 42 / 0 0 0 20 20 DENVER CITY 71 46 69 38 46 / 0 0 0 20 20 BROWNFIELD 71 46 71 35 43 / 0 0 0 20 20 CHILDRESS 62 47 74 36 46 / 0 0 0 20 10 SPUR 68 49 73 37 43 / 0 0 10 20 20 ASPERMONT 69 50 74 42 42 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/07
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW PRESSURE DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO. ATTACHED TO THE SURFACE LOW IS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOW STRATO-CU ACROSS THE NORTH IS FINALLY EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE MOMENT...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE STATE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. BUT QUICKLY ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...DROPPING VSBYS TO 1 1/2SM. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MANITOBA. WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING TONIGHT...SNOW CHANCES/ACCUMS AND TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS. TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE VORT PASSING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UPPER PENINSULA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 06Z AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. FORCING IS VERY GOOD ALONG THE FRONT...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE...AND DECENT MID-LEVEL FGEN AND -DIVQ. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE THOUGH...AND THINK THE NAM MAY BE A LITTLE TOO AMBITIOUS IN GENERATING PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT SHOULD SEE A BKN BAND OF PRECIP RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PTYPE AS MOSTLY SNOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHILE PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEN PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH. COULD SEE A DUSTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA. MAX OMEGA WILL RESIDE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY BECOME BRIEFLY INTENSE WITHIN THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. BECAUSE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE FAST MOVING...TOUGH TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTH...BUT ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY...ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY FLOOD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING...AND TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH OFF THE MORNING LOWS. MAY ACTUALLY SEE TEMPS FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS VERY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS N-C WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH ACCUMULATION. MAY SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS PARTIALLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR ASSERTS ITS INFLUENCE. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE MORNING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY...AND SHOULD LEAD TO APPARENT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE. MORNING HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WEST UPPER RIDGE/EAST TROF TRANSITIONS TO WESTERN TROF AND EASTERN RIDGE. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE LK SUPERIOR SNOWBELT EARLY IN PERIOD...BUT WINDS BACK QUICKLY ENDING THREAT. WARM AIR ADVECTION ON BACKSIDE OF RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...ENHANCED BY LIFT FROM WEAK WAVE PRODUCES A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY RAIN...LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. AS RIDGE MOVES OFF EAST COAST...DEEPER MOISTURE INFLUX NOTED. ANOTHER WAVE IN SW FLOW PRODUCES LARGER AREA OF RAIN...CLIPPING THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN NEXT WEEKEND. SW FLOW WILL USHER IN MILDER TEMPS AFTER TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMS BY END OF WEEK. TEMP FORECAST A BLEND OF BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013 MVFR STRATUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND EXIT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. WILL THEN SEE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID TO LATE EVENING...WHILE GUSTY NORTHWEST BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH AT THE SAME TIME. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN RAPIDLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND COULD SEE BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW OUT OF THE STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY DROPPING VSBYS AS LOW AS IFR. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END EXCEPT OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN. AS CLOUDS DEPART BY MID MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....MPC LONG TERM......JKL AVIATION.......MPC