Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/09/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION, SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN STALL.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE MODELED TO BE CONCENTRATED
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NW OF I95 WITH ANOTHER BAND ALONG THE COASTS.
TRIED TO MODEL A RELATIVE DRY SLOT OVER THE DELMARVA JUST EAST I95
INTO SW NJ. EVEN THERE...SHOWERS APPEAR PROBABLE...MAYBE ONLY .01
OR .02 AMTS THERE BUT BY MIDDAY IT SHOULD BE RAINING OVER MOST OF
OUR AREA.
SSW WIND GUST 20 MPH SHIFT NW 20-30 MPH THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING FM W
TO E TOWARD SUNSET.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/7 GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH FURTHER UPWARD
MODIFICATION OF THE MORNING/MIDDAY TEMPS USING THE 2M TEMPS OF THE
NAM/RGEM.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 4 TENTHS
OF AN INCH...NO SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE RECENT 2 MONTHS OF DRYNESS.
THE 00Z/7 NSSL WRF APPEARS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS RELATIVE DRY QPF
AXIS. I FAVORED THE 00/7 SPCWRF EVOLUTION TODAY AND CAN SEE ISOLATED
.2 TO .4 INCH AMTS...ESPECIALLY POCONOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AT THIS TIME TOMORROW...5AM FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE CURRENT 5AM THURSDAY MORNING READINGS AND WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND ADDING FURTHER CHILL.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR AND COLDER WITH NW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
COAST AND TERRAIN.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/7 GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ALREADY POSTED
IN THE FCST.
PER THE 00Z/7 RGEM AND NAM HAVE GRIDDED SPRINKLES TO FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. DOESNT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RH BELOW
8000 FT AND ASSTD INSTABILITY (LARGE T1-T5 LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT
THE PCPN RISK THERE. THIS IS BENEATH THE 500MB STRONG SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INTERESTINGLY... THE
00Z/7 ECMWF SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH RH AT 850 MB SWEEPING THROUGH THE
POCONOS AROUND 06Z/8.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA EXCEPT
FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS EASTERN CANADA AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE STILL
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT REACHES OUR AREA AND FEW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS OR NEARBY OUR AREA AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN
AS OPPOSED TO SNOW.
THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR FROM CANADA WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. 850 TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FALL BELOW
540 AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OUR REGION, AND STARTS TO MOVE UP THE COAST.
THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE EURO SO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT. WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT IF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS
ITS COURSE, WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST FLAKES FOR THE SEASON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. TIMING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE AND ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL NEED TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR CEILINGS TRYING TO LIFT AT 12Z BUT ITS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
WILL REDEVELOP BACK TO KILG AND KPHL BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MY CONFIDENCE
ON CIG DETAILS THIS MORNING IS WELL BELOW AVG. THE BAND OF RAIN
MOVING NEWD FROM SE VA AND GRAZING KMIV WITH A MORE DIRECT HIT ON
KACY SHOULD KEEP IFR CIGS POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE MORE THERE.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE BULK OF THE COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD
PASS ACROSS KRDG/KABE BUT AS THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH KPHL...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR AS PER THE RUC MODEL.
THEN GUSTY NW 15-25KT FLOW ENSUES AND CIGS-CONDS SHOULD LIFT-IMPROVE
THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND G15-20KT.
EXCEPTION THE POCONOS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES LATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SWELL/PERIOD INFORMATION HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED INTO PERIODS 3 AND
4. IF THERE ARE ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THIS ADDED INFORMATION...PLEASE
LET US KNOW. THE IDEA IS TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION THAT
MAY OF VALUE TO SOME OF OUR MARINERS.
THIS SORT OF GOES IN HAND IN HAND WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE
CONSISTENT VALUE OF THE MODELED WAVE HEIGHT DATA AS THE NWS IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND THE NDFD WAVE HEIGHT GRID FROM 5 TO 6 DAYS IN EARLY DECEMBER.
SCA CONTINUES (SCA CONDITIONS WERE DELAYED ABOUT 5-6 HOURS THIS
MORNING FROM WHAT WE EXPECTED ATTM YDY). WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 22
KT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SLY FETCH IS BUILDING THE SEA STATE ON
THE ATLC WATERS AND AROUND 12Z...44009 SHOULD BE AT 5 FT.
THE GUSTY WINDS FOR ALL WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 KT THIS AFTN
SUBSEQUENT TO THE CFP.
TONIGHT...GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KT ON SOME OF THE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE DELAWARE BAY OUT THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS E OF
DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF ISOLATED NW FLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT
TONIGHT DOWN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 6PM
FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS PAST THAT BUT THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE END
TIME OF THE ADVISORY AS IS.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS RELAXING AND FALL
BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 650
SHORT TERM...DRAG 650
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 650
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 650
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1059 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The main focus of today`s discussion will be the cold frontal
passage expected to occur from west to east throughout today.
Currently it is located just east of Pensacola, and should clear
our eastern forecast area shortly after midnight. Current radar
and surface observations indicate light to moderate showers over
the western Florida Panhandle. Although some hi-res model guidance
suggests the line of showers dying before reaching the Big Bend,
these hi-res models didn`t initialize accurately. The HRRR has
consistently shown accurate representation of current shower
activity. Therefore decided to update PoP forecast based on the
HRRR`s evolution of showers throughout today. The main upper level
energy will continue to lift north, diminishing upper level
support for ongoing showers as they move eastward. Therefore
expect showers to fall apart as they move into our eastern zones.
Otherwise just made a few minor tweaks to the grids. Expect
clouds to increase from west to east, and then clear as the cold
front traverses our forecast area. Have a NW/SE temperature
gradient, with high temperatures in the lower 70s in our far
northwestern zones and lower 80s in are far southeastern zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
The 500mb flow across much of the CONUS will become fairly zonal
tonight and Friday, as the trough currently translating eastward
over the eastern U.S. "lifts out" quickly to the northeast. The
airmass across our region will be quite dry and a little bit cooler
than what we`ve observed the past few days, so we expect fair
weather and for temperatures to be near climatology.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]... The long term looks to
feature relatively benign weather with zonal flow expected to be
in place through much of the period. This will yield partly to
mostly cloudy days with temperatures largely remaining at or just
a few degrees above climatology through the period. The only
notable exception to this may be toward the tail end of the long
term period when both the GFS and Euro are indicating the pattern
over the Eastern CONUS will become a little more amplified, thus
slightly elevating the potential for higher rain chances in the
region. However, confidence at this time range is low.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
Mid-morning conditions show improvement as fog then clouds begin
to lift to MVFR then VFR and remain so through 12z Fri. Cold
frontal passage will occur over our terminals today bringing the
chance for showers at ECP, DHN, ABY, and TLH. Confidence remains
low at this time if showers will hold to make it as far east as
VLD. Nly winds around 10 knots with gusts around 15-20 knots are
expected later today in the wake of a passing weak cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be a lull in the winds and seas this morning as the
pressure gradient continues to weaken ahead of a cold front. Winds
and seas will then increase to advisory levels from west to east
behind the cold front late this afternoon into tonight, and
perhaps lingering on and off through Friday as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front with limited moisture will move across keeping RH
well above critical values. In its wake, a much drier airmass will
overspread the area on Fri. Minimum inland RH will drop into the
upper 20s but critical durations are not expected. Dispersion values
will remain within acceptable ranges each day. The airmass will
begin to moisten up again on Sat.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrology concerns are expected through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 81 45 71 44 75 / 60 0 0 0 0
Panama City 76 48 69 51 73 / 60 0 0 0 0
Dothan 73 41 67 41 73 / 70 0 0 0 0
Albany 77 42 67 41 71 / 30 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 81 45 69 43 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 50 73 47 78 / 20 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 78 50 69 52 72 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Friday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Navarro/Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Navarro/Block
MARINE...Navarro/Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Forunier
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-DAWN...OTHER THAN ACROSS EASTERN HALVES OF BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...DRY WEATHER HAS PREVAILED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE GEORGIA. AN AXIS OF SURFACE PRES
FALLS PRECEDING A LOW PRES WAVE SLIDING N ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. BY DAYBREAK... AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TIGHTENS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE WAVES. MODEL VSBY PROGS AND
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RAP INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOP BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMPLICATE
MATTERS SOMEWHAT. WHEN CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TANK IN SPACE AND
TIME...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE TO THE W WILL FLATTEN QUITE A BIT TODAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE NW FLANKS OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST COMPONENT IN
THE LOWER LEVELS DELIVERING SOME PRE-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE AND
COMPRESSION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AFTER MID MORNING...LOW CLOUDS
WILL ERODE BUT LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED LATE
MORNING SPRINKLE IN A FEW SPOTS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS COULD SPIKE TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE DOWNSLOPING COASTAL
CORRIDOR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LAYERED CLOUDS MAKE
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS RATHER LOW. MILD READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S STILL A NEAR CERTAINTY. CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES BUT POPS STILL SILENT AT THAT POINT.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
STIR ALL NIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.
LAKE WINDS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUST POTENTIAL OVER 25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE PEAK
SURGING SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK ON FRI. WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE DAMPENED UPPER
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ALLOW
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STEADILY TRACK TOWARD THE
COASTLINE SATURDAY...WITH ITS AXIS EVENTUALLY SLIPPING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITHIN BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SINCE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE UPSTATE REGION. A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
GRADIENT WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FROST ANALYSIS TOOLS ARE THEREFORE SUGGESTING THAT FROST WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND...AS COLD ADVECTION
DIMINISHES FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF HIGH PRESSURE. WILL
INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST SUNDAY. WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE
WARMING TREND...WITH SLOWLY RECOVERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORTING MILDER NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO BOTH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE SURFACE PATTERN AND THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN DESCEND FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN BY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN A DEVELOPING CUT OFF
LOW SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA
COULD BECOME LOCATED WITHIN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK
ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PASSING FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT...AND WILL JUST
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL OTHERWISE CAP RAIN
CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AS
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE WAVE
PASSING BY OFF THE COAST. WE KEPT GOOD PERSISTENCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
KSAV NEARING DAYBREAK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
ADVECTING INTO KCHS FROM THE NW AND N LATE. TIMING REMAINS
AN ISSUE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIR IFR CONDITIONS BLANKET A GOOD
PORTION OF THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
THU. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NW WINDS FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY.
EXTENDED
AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ADVECTION FOG TO SWEEP SE
INTO THE INTRA-COASTAL AND POSSIBLY THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE
HARBOR FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW END.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUED SECOND PERIOD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND HARBOR. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCITE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SURGES OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AND
EVEN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WINDOW FOR
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS IS LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER GALE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WE THOUGHT WAVEWATCH
WAS A BIT LOW AT 12Z FRIDAY NEAR SHORE WITH WIND WAVE POTENTIAL AND
WE BUMPED SEA HEIGHTS UP A FOOT OR SO.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BEGINNING WITH THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WITHIN AN ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 950 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013/
UPDATED SEVERAL GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO ADJUST TIMING OF
RAIN AND FRONT BY AN HOUR OR TWO BY PRIMARILY USING HEAVILY
WEIGHTED HRRR BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING
IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING PROSPECT FOR FOG AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL LOOK FOR FAIRLY WINDY
DAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING LIFTING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TIMING HAS FRONT AND A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...REACHING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY AROUND SUN-UP AND CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY EXITING OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. RAIN ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT INDICATES THAT THUNDER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHWEST...TAPERING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM THE
METRO AREA SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY SEE A THREAT FOR PATCHY AREAS OF
FROST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
20
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS NO LONGER
SHOWING PRECIP FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. 00Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THUS HAVE LEFT ALL
MENTION OF POPS OUT.
11/16
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY 08-09Z... THEN IFR SHOULD FOLLOW BY 10Z AS
THE -RA MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ENTERING NW GA. TIMING TOOL
INDICATES THE -RA WILL SPREAD INTO ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 10-12Z
THIS MORNING... AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF ATL BY 15-16Z. IF THE -RA
HOLDS TOGETHER... IT WOULD PUSH INTO KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES AROUND
14-15Z AND SHOULD END BY 17Z. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
14-15Z... THEN SHOULD SEE VFR BY 16-18Z TODAY. CURRENT LIGHT SE
WINDS WILL VEER SW BY 09-10Z... THEN NW BY 16Z WITH FROPA... AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 66 38 64 / 10 30 5 0
ATLANTA 54 64 39 62 / 30 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 50 60 33 59 / 50 80 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 55 61 35 61 / 70 90 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 71 41 67 / 20 20 0 0
GAINESVILLE 53 64 38 61 / 30 60 0 0
MACON 57 72 39 67 / 5 20 5 0
ROME 55 61 34 60 / 100 60 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 56 65 35 64 / 30 60 0 0
VIDALIA 59 77 48 69 / 5 20 10 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1140 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY NEXT WEEK`S BIG
PATTERN CHANGE SEEING AS THOUGH WX SHOULD BE PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER A SUNNY AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY COULD SEE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER ASS WELL. FAST MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF FROPAS AND SOME TEMP SWINGS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF PRECIP.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE FAST
MOVING LOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY
STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH BEST FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH...SO WITH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD BE A
MAJOR VIRGA OUTBREAK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND
POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS VEER BUT REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OUT AND ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HEALTHY SHOT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST VEERING WEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
(ESPECIALLY SOUTH). WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING A QUICK MOVING WEAK SFC HIGH
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
BIG PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING OUR AREA THE FIRST REAL
TASTE OF WINTER NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT BEST AT
THIS DISTANCE. THE POWERHOUSE STORM THAT HAS BEEN LAMBASTING THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN ALASKA WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND
40FT+ WAVES IS FORECAST TO BREAK INTO A COUPLE PIECES ALOFT...ONE
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CLOSING OFF INTO A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CREST AN AMPLIFYING...ALMOST OMEGA BLOCK LIKE...RIDGE
THAT DEVELOPS OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL DUMP
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH WITH IT.
AMAZINGLY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF...AND EVEN THE GEM
ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
EVOLUTION...LENDING SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO MAINLY THE MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST DROP 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE...WHICH
LOOKING UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER DATING BACK
TO 1979...THIS WOULD BE AMONG THE TOP 3-5% OF COLDEST AIR MASSES TO
AFFECT THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE OFTEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ARCTIC AIR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AM
RELUCTANT TO GO AS COLD AS THESE TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT (HIGHS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING)...BUT DID LOWER HIGHS BELOW OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
FOR TUES/WED HIGHS. OPTED TO KEEP LOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CLOSER
TO GUIDANCE WITH THE ALMOST CERTAIN OVERCAST CONDITIONS IF CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE EVEN THE SLIGHTEST WHIFF OF HOW THINGS PAN OUT.
SUCH A MASSIVE DUMP OF COLD AIR WITH A CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW IN THE
REGION SHOULD LOCK IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
IN THE CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD BE VERY EASY FOR THE CLOUDS TO LEAK AT
LEAST OCNL FLURRIES IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW COULD RESULT FROM ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ALSO VIA LAKE
EFFECT. TRYING TO FORECAST ANY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
THIS COMPLEX FLOW WOULD BE FUTILE AT THIS POINT...SO NO SENSE IN
EVEN TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AS IT WILL ALMOST
UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE MULTIPLE TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ECMWF/GFS BOTH FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET UP WHERE
EVER DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ENDS UP BEING (TOO SOON TO
CONFIDENTLY PREDICT WIND FIELDS THIS FAR OUT)...BUT CURRENT FORECAST
DELTA-T VALUES NEAR 20C WITH HIGH EL HEIGHTS IN VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW COULD ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT SOMEWHERE. HAVE KEPT POPS MODEST...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE...AND
HAVE SWITCHED P-TYPE IN THE FORECAST TO ALL SNOW GIVEN THE
FORECASTED TEMPS.
FOR THOSE OF US NOT READY FOR WINTER...BETTER MAKE PLANS TO ENJOY
SATURDAY!
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND CEILING TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRATUS DECK GRADUALLY ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. WITH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HELPING TO WARM THE SURFACE
AHEAD OF THE STRATUS DECK...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS HAS
LIFTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARMER AIR...WITH
MVFR LEVEL CIGS STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE MUCH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. OVER SW WI/SE MN...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THERE IS A THINNING OF THE STRATUS WITH SUBTLE CLOUD STREETS
EMBEDDED INDICATING THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. BEHIND THE WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD ALSO FADE WITH SUNSET AS IT
CONTINUES TO TAKE ON MORE STRATOCU CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
LOWERING INVERSION TONIGHT INSTEAD OF SCATTERING OUT...LEADING TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO STAY JUST
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH
THE IDEA OF SCATTERING/CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM NEAR OSH SOUTHWEST TO MLI...AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS WE LOSE
SUNLIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
INTO THE 5-8KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. S WINDS INCREASING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR. MODERATE SW WIND BECOMING W.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR TIL LATE IN THE DAY THEN MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
330 AM CST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER AND BECOME WEST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL THE VEER BACK TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE MI. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN
BACK TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND A LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DURING
FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHING WESTERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE FOR A PERIOD FROM
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PREDAWN SATURDAY...MAINLY
ON SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH STRONG BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH
MODERATE NORTH BREEZES ON THE LAKE AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH WILL
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUCH OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH MAY BE
CANCELLED BY MIDDAY IF WAVES SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS A RESULT OF WINDS
BACKING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD AGAIN.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1113 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 953 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
Updated the zones/grids to beef up the cloud cover across the
forecast area today. Latest satellite imagery showing an area of
stratocumulus associated with a weak trough, which extends from
eastern Wisconsin to southern Iowa. leading wing of clouds has
reached as far southeast as Peoria and Lincoln, with some lower
clouds closer to the trough itself. Latest RAP model showing this
spreading into the eastern CWA by early afternoon, while clearing
out northwest of the Illinois River, and most areas should be
mostly clear again by late afternoon except near the Indiana
border. Have also nudged down temperatures a bit across the north
with the increased clouds.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
A couple hours of MVFR ceilings expected around KPIA/KBMI early
this afternoon, as a weak surface trough swings through the area.
Surface obs showing 1700 foot ceilings as close as KGBG as of 17Z.
Clouds have also increased further south ahead of the trough, but
should stay above 3000 feet before becoming mostly clear again.
Have kept some brief gusts to around 15-20 knots following the
passage of the trough. Northwest winds behind the trough will
trend more toward the south late tonight, as a ridge of high
pressure slides by. Some increase in mid and high clouds expected
late Friday morning ahead of a warm front.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night
00Z forecast model suite is in fair agreement through this weekend
as dry and seasonably cool conditions occur. A couple of weather
system systems will pass by with just some passing clouds.
Extended models like ECMWF and GFS have trended much colder with a
stronger upper level low/trof into the eastern states during the
middle of next week. As a result have trended forecaster colder
and extended mixed precipitation chances further south especially
Tuesday night.
Early morning surface map reveals a cold front along the
Appalachians while 1030 mb high pressure was over OK and ridging
ne into MO/IL. Skies cleared during the night across central/se IL
with much cooler temps in the low to mid 30s with Galesburg down
to 29 degrees. WNW winds had settled to near 10 mph or less during
overnight hours. Aloft a broad upper level trof was over the MS
river valley with upper level ridge off the east coast and another
upper level trof off the Pacific NW coast.
West breezes to bring a cooler day on tap today across central/se
IL despite partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs mostly in the lower
50s with a few upper 40s from I-74 ne where clouds appear during
the day. 1030 mb high pressure settles into western KY/TN by dawn
Friday and ridging northward into IL and brings fair skies,
lighter winds and frosty lows of 27-32F. Leaned toward the cooler
guidance for lows tonight with good rational cooling expected.
High pressure drifts east into the mid Atlantic states by Friday
evening while a fairly strong northern stream short wave off the
Pacific NW coast races eastward into the western great lakes
region Friday night. This to be far enough north to keep its light
precipitation north of I-80 with just some passing clouds
especially over northern CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Highs
Friday of 50-55F and lows Friday night in the upper 30s and lower
40s with coolest readings in se IL where lighter winds and less
cloud cover.
A fair amount of sunshine expected Saturday with breezy sw winds
and gusts of 20-25 mph and brings milder temps around 60F or lower
60s sw counties and se IL. High pressure settles into the region
Sunday and continues fair weather with temperatures starting to cool
with highs lower 50s from I-74 north and upper 50s in southeast IL.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Dry conditions to continue one more day on Monday as high pressure
tracks to the mid Atlantic coast by noon Monday and a cold front
moves se into IL by Monday afternoon with increasing clouds. Highs
in the 50s for one more day Monday and then much cooler weather
expected for the middle of next week.
Both 00Z ECMWF and GFS models now show a strong cutoff low of
535-540 dm at 500 mb forming in the eastern states by Wednesday.
Large short wave to dive southward across IL Monday night and Tuesday
and bring a chance of rain showers and then diminishing from the
north on Wednesday. 850 mb temps drop to minus 8-12C by Wednesday
and enough cold air to bring chance of light snow showers too
starting in areas from I-74 north on Tue, across all of central IL
by overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs in the upper 30s
and lower 40s Wed and Thu with dry conditions returning to region
Wed night and Thu and precipitation chances shift se of central IL
as strong upper level low pulls away from IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1152 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE ENTERED OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER ROUGHLY OUR NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH OR SCATTER OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
BUT THERE IS SOME DEBATE HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS ACTUALLY LINGER TODAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND UPDATE WHEN/IF NEEDED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SD TO EASTERN NEB WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN SE SD
YESTERDAY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
EVER SINCE. CURRENTLY THIS AREA OF STRATUS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT 31 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE AWIPS
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
BEING THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT NIGHT
THIS STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR TAKES THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 AND THEN DIMINISHES/MOVES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR FOR CLOUD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF/WHEN NEEDED. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
SNOW FIELD THAT COVERS SW MN INTO NEB AND SD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ADDING
A CHILL TO THE AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S IN SOME FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT BEST THERE
MAY BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ELSEWHERE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG
THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE TREND AMONG ALL THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY COLDER WITH A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS COOLER IT IS STILL QUITE WARM. SO IF SNOW DOES OCCUR
MUCH OF IT SHOULD MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MVFR STRATOCU BKN-OVC DECK IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING
STARTING TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND DECAY ON IT/S WESTERN FRINGE TO
SCTRD. THIS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL TROF AND VORT ALOFT
OVERHEAD WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED CLOUD
DECAY/CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-22KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF PASSING SFC RIDGE.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THEN A WING OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
DRIFT ACRS THE AREA FRI MORNING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO 10-15 KTS BY LATE FRI
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE ENTERED OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER ROUGHLY OUR NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH OR SCATTER OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
BUT THERE IS SOME DEBATE HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS ACTUALLY LINGER TODAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND UPDATE WHEN/IF NEEDED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SD TO EASTERN NEB WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN SE SD
YESTERDAY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
EVER SINCE. CURRENTLY THIS AREA OF STRATUS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT 31 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE AWIPS
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
BEING THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT NIGHT
THIS STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR TAKES THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 AND THEN DIMINISHES/MOVES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR FOR CLOUD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF/WHEN NEEDED. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
SNOW FIELD THAT COVERS SW MN INTO NEB AND SD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ADDING
A CHILL TO THE AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S IN SOME FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT BEST THERE
MAY BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ELSEWHERE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG
THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE TREND AMONG ALL THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY COLDER WITH A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS COOLER IT IS STILL QUITE WARM. SO IF SNOW DOES OCCUR
MUCH OF IT SHOULD MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KBRL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS WITH SKC. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
NEAR CALM LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SD TO EASTERN NEB WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN SE SD
YESTERDAY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
EVER SINCE. CURRENTLY THIS AREA OF STRATUS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT 31 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE AWIPS
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
BEING THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT NIGHT
THIS STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR TAKES THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 AND THEN DIMINISHES/MOVES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR FOR CLOUD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF/WHEN NEEDED. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
SNOW FIELD THAT COVERS SW MN INTO NEB AND SD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ADDING
A CHILL TO THE AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S IN SOME FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT BEST THERE
MAY BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ELSEWHERE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG
THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE TREND AMONG ALL THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY COLDER WITH A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS COOLER IT IS STILL QUITE WARM. SO IF SNOW DOES OCCUR
MUCH OF IT SHOULD MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS SKIES CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS WITH SKC. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEAR
CALM LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
507 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
A weak cold front was entering northwestern Kansas this afternoon in
the wake of a shortwave trough progressing into the upper Midwest.
This front was little more than a wind shift line, and will only
lower temperatures a few degrees for Saturday. The biggest
difference in highs will be in far western Kansas where it was
much warmer today (75 to 80 degrees). Temperatures Saturday will
top out mainly in the middle 60s. Winds will not be very strong
behind this front tonight with only 5 to 10 kts on the high end. Lows
should fall into the 30s given the expected light north winds and
mostly clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
Challenges in the forecast continue to center around the timing and
strength of the arctic airmass to affect the southwest KS region
early/mid next week. The global models (GFS, ECMWF, GEM) have all
advertised this upcoming cold event fairly well, but the onset of
the cold event has been something that has changed daily in the
models...as none of them really caught on to the speed in which the
anticyclogenesis will develop up north late this weekend. The latest
thinking now is that the arctic cold front will reach the I-70
corridor by mid to late morning...and continue to move south at a
fast clip clearing almost the entire southwest KS region by mid to
late afternoon. This really complicates the temperature forecast
Monday, and given the faster solution, a fairly decent drop in high
temperature was required in the grids. While it appears the
southern sections of the forecast area south of the Arkansas River
to the Oklahoma border will still see some 60s Monday, areas up
north will see their highs around 15-18z...likely upper 40s to lower
50s...before the afternoon drop commences. The pressure gradient
and robust pressure rises will lead to strong north-northeast winds
in the 20 to 25 knot range (as it appears now)...so this will make
the Apparent Temperature rather chilly...into the 30s...by late
afternoon. Since this cold airmass will be shallow late
Monday/Monday Night...the precipitation chances look very
low...especially considering how fast the surface high will build
in. Given the faster timing, Monday Night looks cold with
widespread lows in the mid to upper 20s likely.
By Tuesday, the surface high will have already made it into northern
Kansas by late in the day. Some moderation of the arctic airmass
will be occurring late in the day Tuesday as insolation should
compete with whatever cold air advection is left (almost none by
late day). Surface temperatures should reach the lower to perhaps
mid 40s across the southern and western forecast area where the
airmass will modify quicker. On Wednesday, there will be a further
modification of the airmass on the western end (western KS region),
especially with downslope momentum returning thanks to an
approaching mid level trough. Winds will quickly turn back around to
the south and the 900-800mb temperatures will warm fairly
substantially. The next Pacific jet will be rounding a formidable
mid level high out in the Pacific off the coast of California late
Wednesday into early Thursday. Some of this jet energy will enter
the Four Corners region and there is some indication from the ECMWF
model of a substantial enough potential vorticity (PV) anomaly to
support lower tropospheric development Thursday. A light
precipitation event is possible as this mid level PV anomaly enters
the southern High Plains. It is far too early to tell how
significant this disturbance will be (or how cold it will be for
precipitation type forecasting), so will just be carrying 20 POPs
Thursday and Thursday Night (Rain or Snow) across the southwest KS
region.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
A cold front will move across southwest Kansas overnight as an upper
level trough crosses the central United States. Model soundings
indicating cloud cover ahead of this upper level disturbance will
be at or above 12000ft AGL so VFR conditions are expected
overnight. Gusty south winds will decrease to less than 10kts
early this evening as the cold front drops south into western
Kansas. NAM, GFS, RAP suggested that frontal passage will occur at
Hays around 02z, and then Garden City between 03z and 05z and
finally at Dodge City between 05z and 07z. As this front
passes...southerly winds at less than 10kts will shift to the
northeast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 35 65 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 35 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 34 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 35 68 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 35 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
P28 38 65 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
The 20Z water vapor imagery shows a upper level trough progressing
east through the plains into the upper Midwest and MS river valley.
Weak ridging was noted over the inter-mountain west with another
shortwave trough approaching the pacific northwest coast. At the
surface, a cool and much dryer ridge of high pressure has settled
into the central plains.
For tonight and Thursday, dry and cool weather is expected to
persist as the surface ridge keeps dry air over the forecast area.
Additionally there is no obvious wave within the northwest flow
aloft to suggest any forcing for precip. The low level saturation
that has allowed the STRATOCU deck to linger over eastern KS through
the afternoon is expected to eventually mix out and/or move east.
Latest visible satellite seems to support the RAP and HRRR PROGS of
the low level saturation dissipating. So think tonight will
eventually become mostly clear. Am a little concerned about the
formation of fog overnight since the boundary layer moisture has not
mixed out and cross over temps are 3 to 5 degrees above the forecast
min temps. The one thing against a good radiational fog is that the
models keep the center of the surface ridge over western KS and the
winds never go calm with lower dewpoint temps advecting in from the
west through the night. Think this may be enough to limit any fog
development to the favored low spots near bodies of water where the
winds are most likely to be light and variable. Thursday should be
sunny with a dry northwest flow aloft and the surface ridge still
over eastern KS. Because of this there does not look to be a lot of
low level warm air advection tomorrow so highs may struggle to warm
into the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
Winds and cloud cover should steadily increase late Thursday night
into Friday on the south end of a rather potent wave moving east
through the Dakotas. Clouds will be of the high variety with still
dry low to mid levels, limiting any precipitation chances. Specifics
on how fast and thick the clouds are Tuesday night will play a large
role in how cool temps will fall as southwest winds ramp up just off
the surface through the night. Expect winds and clouds to hold off
the longest in the south and east for the coolest temps there. A
quite windy Friday remains to be expected, though the strongest
winds may be a bit farther east, with near advisory levels possible
for much of the area. Overnight and early day warm air advection
should push temps well into the 60s. Elevated fire danger is still
anticipated in the warm, dry, and windy boundary layer. The modified
Pacific cold front with the Dakotas wave sinks in late Friday night
into Saturday and should bring little cooling and much lighter
winds.
Zonal flow aloft becomes more northwesterly by Monday as an upper
trof off the west coast deepens. Modest moisture return in
isentropic lift may still be enough for a few showers Monday night
into Tuesday. The main periods of question are for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are in rather strong agreement
with a shortwave diving south into the Northern Plains and western
Great Lakes Tuesday and on southeast through the mid Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The source region of the airmass
is northern Alaska and Yukon, but does linger for 12-24 hours in
southern Canada before coming into the CONUS, and snowpack in this
area does not appear to be now or look likely to increase much
before its arrival. Still, the operational runs drop 850mb temps
well below 0 C with its passage and suggest one of the coldest days
of the cold season so far. The ensembles show a rather large spread
in temps and height fields however, and this is not unexpected with
this smaller scale wave coming through a somewhat complex pattern.
Will suggest a cooling trend and some chance for liquid
precipitation at this point but confidence is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
The most likely scenario through the TAF period appears to be VFR
conditions at all sites. Seem to have a fair setup for shallow fog
at MHK and TOP, but winds just above the surface are expected to
limit overall fog development so have removed any vis restrictions
from the TAF, although not completely ruled out.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1211 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1205 PM UPDATE: COLD FRONT NOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST MAINE, WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. FORECAST HAD
THIS HANDLED WELL, AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. ALSO, ALLOWED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST TO EXPIRE AT NOON.
943 AM UPDATE: COLD FRONT NEARING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ALL BUT DOWNEAST
MAINE, ALTHOUGH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TWEAKED PRECIP TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST.
WIND GUSTS SO FAR HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST GUST
SO FAR BEING 36 MPH AT WINTER HARBOR, BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE
FOR NOW AS EVEN THESE WINDS JUST A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN
DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS.
707 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FURTHER S TOWARD HUL AND MLT BACK TOWARD GNR. THE LATEST RAP STILL
HOLDING ON WELL W/ITS SETUP OF DRIVING THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
STABLE LAYER IN THE LLVLS KEEPING 45-50KT JET ABOVE THE SFC.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME OF THIS JET MIXING AFT 13Z
W/SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 STILL POSSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS FCST
TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT W/AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BY EVENING RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE BEST Q- VECTOR FORCING AS
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. A STRONG LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS OF 50-55
KTS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING W/THE STRONGEST
JET ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS JET AXIS WILL ALSO AID IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY. FURTHER N, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER W/DAYTIME
HIGHS HITTING THE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR 60 FOR EASTERN MAINE. 00Z UA SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF 10-12C
TEMPERATURES AT 850-925MBS RESPECTIVELY.
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING W/PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BACK BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REALLY FALL BACK AFTER
00-03Z TIME-FRAME AS CAA MAKES IT WAY DOWN TO THE BLYR. ADJUSTED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FROM THE DAYCREW`S FCST TO THE MID/UPPER
20S NORTH AND WEST AND AROUND 30 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. A FEW FLURRIES COULDNT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE SNOW CHANGING TO A
SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/TEMPO VFR FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS &
IFR ACROSS KFVE EARLY THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
DROP TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER N, MVFR W/TEMPO IFR AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING & THEN VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. LLWS A
CONCERN THROUGH LATE MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HOLD HANG ON TO
MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI)
ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVRF/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SN/RN AND LOW
CIGS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS AND SCT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WINDS SHOWING 20
TO 25 KTS TODAY W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS. SEAS ALREADY UP
TO 6-7 FT AND EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT TODAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SCA CATEGORY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED W/SEAS HOLDING AT 6
FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
DECREASING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
952 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
943 AM UPDATE: COLD FRONT NEARING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ALL BUT DOWNEAST
MAINE, ALTHOUGH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TWEAKED PRECIP TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST.
WIND GUSTS SO FAR HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST GUST
SO FAR BEING 36 MPH AT WINTER HARBOR, BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE
FOR NOW AS EVEN THESE WINDS JUST A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN
DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS.
707 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FURTHER S TOWARD HUL AND MLT BACK TOWARD GNR. THE LATEST RAP STILL
HOLDING ON WELL W/ITS SETUP OF DRIVING THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
STABLE LAYER IN THE LLVLS KEEPING 45-50KT JET ABOVE THE SFC.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME OF THIS JET MIXING AFT 13Z
W/SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 STILL POSSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS FCST
TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT W/AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BY EVENING RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE BEST Q- VECTOR FORCING AS
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. A STRONG LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS OF 50-55
KTS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING W/THE STRONGEST
JET ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS JET AXIS WILL ALSO AID IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY. FURTHER N, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER W/DAYTIME
HIGHS HITTING THE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR 60 FOR EASTERN MAINE. 00Z UA SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF 10-12C
TEMPERATURES AT 850-925MBS RESPECTIVELY.
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING W/PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BACK BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REALLY FALL BACK AFTER
00-03Z TIME-FRAME AS CAA MAKES IT WAY DOWN TO THE BLYR. ADJUSTED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FROM THE DAYCREW`S FCST TO THE MID/UPPER
20S NORTH AND WEST AND AROUND 30 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. A FEW FLURRIES COULDNT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE SNOW CHANGING TO A
SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/TEMPO VFR FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS &
IFR ACROSS KFVE EARLY THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
DROP TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER N, MVFR W/TEMPO IFR AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING & THEN VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. LLWS A
CONCERN THROUGH LATE MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HOLD HANG ON TO
MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI)
ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVRF/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SN/RN AND LOW
CIGS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS AND SCT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WINDS SHOWING 20
TO 25 KTS TODAY W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS. SEAS ALREADY UP
TO 6-7 FT AND EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT TODAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SCA CATEGORY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED W/SEAS HOLDING AT 6
FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
DECREASING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
711 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
707 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FURTHER S TOWARD HUL AND MLT BACK TOWARD GNR. THE LATEST RAP STILL
HOLDING ON WELL W/ITS SETUP OF DRIVING THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
STABLE LAYER IN THE LLVLS KEEPING 45-50KT JET ABOVE THE SFC.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME OF THIS JET MIXING AFT 13Z
W/SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 STILL POSSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS FCST
TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT W/AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BY EVENING RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE BEST Q- VECTOR FORCING AS
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. A STRONG LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS OF 50-55
KTS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING W/THE STRONGEST
JET ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS JET AXIS WILL ALSO AID IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY. FURTHER N, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER W/DAYTIME
HIGHS HITTING THE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR 60 FOR EASTERN MAINE. 00Z UA SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF 10-12C
TEMPERATURES AT 850-925MBS RESPECTIVELY.
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING W/PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BACK BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REALLY FALL BACK AFTER
00-03Z TIME-FRAME AS CAA MAKES IT WAY DOWN TO THE BLYR. ADJUSTED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FROM THE DAYCREW`S FCST TO THE MID/UPPER
20S NORTH AND WEST AND AROUND 30 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. A FEW FLURRIES COULDNT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE SNOW CHANGING TO A
SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/TEMPO VFR FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS &
IFR ACROSS KFVE EARLY THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
DROP TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER N, MVFR W/TEMPO IFR AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING & THEN VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. LLWS A
CONCERN THROUGH LATE MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HOLD HANG ON TO
MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI)
ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVRF/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SN/RN AND LOW
CIGS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS AND SCT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WINDS SHOWING 20
TO 25 KTS TODAY W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS. SEAS ALREADY UP
TO 6-7 FT AND EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT TODAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SCA CATEGORY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED W/SEAS HOLDING AT 6
FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
DECREASING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
112 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
110 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE TO REFLECT THE 06Z RADAR LOOP. BOOSTED TEMPERATURES AS WELL
USING THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVRNGT. FCST 925MB WINDS SHOW A JET
CORE UP TO 55 KT BY 12Z THU ALG...BUT TANGENTIAL TO THE DOWNEAST
COAST. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE
ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WIND ADV GUSTS COULD BE CONTAINED
FROM REACHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE COASTAL HIGHLANDS WITH THIS
LLVL JET ORIENTATION. WIND SPEEDS ALF DIMINISH DURG THE DAY THU AS
THE LLVL JET CORE SLIDED E INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TYPICALLY...THE BEST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL OCCUR
W OF THE LLVL JET CORE TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
OCCUR MIDDAY ACROSS THE XTRM NW TO AS LATE AS ERLY EVE THU ACROSS
FAR SE WASHINGTON COUNTY.
OVRNGT TEMPS WHICH WILL BE QUITE MILD, HOLDING STEADY AND SLOWLY
RISE LATER TNGT AS SSW SFC WINDS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALF. HI TEMPS THU WILL MAX OUT ERLY ACROSS THE NW
WITH A MIDDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD REACH HIGHS
SOMETIME IN THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTLY TO
NEAR TOTAL CLRG IS INITIALLY XPCTD THU NGT WITH A MID LVL DRY
SLOT...AS TEMPS AND WINDS BECOME MORE BRISK BY DAYBREAK FRI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PULL SOME
VERY CHILLY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
AWAY ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEW TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH AHEAD OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEW LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WILL PULL AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH WITH RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY DOWNEAST. A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DRAWS ENOUGH WARM AIR
NORTHWARD TO MIX THE SNOW WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MAINE COAST.
THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AND PROLONG ANY SNOW OVER THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE FAVORING A FAST
MOVING FRONT WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. VERY
CHILLY AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE NORTH AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DOWNEAST AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH MVFR OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
LATER TNGT TO IFR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK
THU AS INCREASING S WINDS BRING MOIST BL AIR FROM THE GULF OF ME
AND AS SHWRS MOVE E INTO THE FA FROM QB. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NGT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH IN
STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNEAST WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT SCA CALLING FOR WINDS UP
TO 30 KT WITH SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TNGT INTO THU.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY THEN BE
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER. AN SCA OR A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
FOR STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
345 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
A SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LAKE SHORE AREA...
MOSTLY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE BUT
CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FINALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW.... THEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
THERE ARE TWO ISSUES OF PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING... PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THEN THERE IS THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE WARM FRONT FOR THE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BOARDER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS SEEN ON BOTH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS...IR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE LOOPS... THERE IS A SERIES OF THREE SHORTWAVES
BETWEEN CHICAGO AND MINNEAPOLIS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST. ALREADY
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER WEST CENTRAL
ALLEGAN COUNTY THEN WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 10000 FT AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C WHILE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR 11C... THAT WILL BE MORE THAN NEEDED
TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BE? AS THE
START THE AIR IS WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN... BUT INLAND OF US-31
AFTER SAY 8 PM OR SO IT MAY JUST BE COLD ENOUGH OF SNOW TO REACH
THE GROUND. GIVEN AIR TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING I DO NOT
SEE ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY
SURFACES BUT THE RAP MODEL DOES GIVE NEARLY .30 OF IN OF QPF OVER
SOUTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY. MOSTLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM. THE WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 1000 AGL BY THEN SO IT JUST MAY END UP
BEING SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. FOR NOW I HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
ONCE THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES EAST SKIES SHOULD FOR THE
MOST PART CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NORTH OF I-96 SO THAT IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN.
THAT WRAPS IN WARMER AIR FOR SATURDAY SO LAKE EFFECT IS OUT OF
PLAY THUS EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
COLD IS THE OPERATIVE WORD IN THE EXTENDED WITH A BIG ARCTIC HIGH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO
BIG STORMS IN THE OFFING BUT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN
ZONES AS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY AND MAY EVEN GO OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WEST WITH THE PATH OF
THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EURO STILL INDICATES LESS IN THE WAY OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS STRONG
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD MEAN LESS CLOUDS AND COLDER MIN
TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAN THE GFS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN AREAS OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP
FROM MKG TO AZO IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE COULD
ALSO REACH GRR TO BTL AND JXN BUT KEPT THOSE SITES VFR FOR NOW AS
CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE. THE WEAK STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A QUICK MOVER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 06Z. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND ISSUED A
GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LAKE TEMPS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE IN THE LOWER 50S BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING SURFACE AIR ONLY IN THE 40S OVER
THAT LAKE SO THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
THE 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWN CLOSE TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. THUS THE GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
EVEN WITH THE .5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL WEDNESDAY THE
RIVERS DID NOT RESPOND MUCH. SO WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK... I SEE NO SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES WITH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ON THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS. PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA INTO
FAR ERN UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C(LAKE TEMPS NEAR 8C)
ONLY PROVIDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. RADAR INDICATED
ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES INTO WEST UPPER MI AND S CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...CAA DROPPING 850/700 MB TEMPS TO -9C/-15C AND
GRADUALLY CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR INCREASE IN LES FOR
WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST NORTH OF
M-28 AND OVER THE EAST FROM MUNISING AND SHINGLETON EASTWARD.
THURSDAY...300-310 LOW LEVEL FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF AS A WEAK 850-700 MB TROUGH BRUSHES
THE ERN LAKE WITH CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS(AN INCREASE IN 850-700
MB MOISTURE AND 700 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -18C). EVEN WITH NMRS
SHSN...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEST...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH AND LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
FOR THU NIGHT WILL INITIALLY SEE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NW WINDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY STAY AROUND -8C TO -9C...SO LES IN NORTHWEST WIND
SNOWBELTS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE
LONGER FETCH AND LONGER LASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY MINOR...BUT
SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NERN CWA WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 00Z SAT...CONFINING ANY
REMAINING ISOLATED LES TO NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BY FRI EVENING. SOME
PRECIP MAY BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 00Z SAT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT THE 12/06 GFS AND 00Z/06 ECMWF SHOW MOVING FROM ERN
SD AT 00Z SAT TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z SAT THEN TO ONTARIO E OF
LAKE HURON BY 18Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE...WITH A
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES /MAINLY THE
WEAKER ONE/ SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTER THAT LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...SINCE MAIN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IS WITH PTYPE AND EXACT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. PTYPES LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA /WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN/ TO MOSTLY
RAIN OVER THE ERN CWA DUE TO WARMER AIR COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE WARM...THE WARM LAYER
WILL ALSO BE DRY SO WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SUN. THINK
THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT STILL
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THAT NUMBER.
AFTER THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT...LOW LEVEL AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES WILL MOVE IN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT /MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT SO ENDING TIME IS VERY
UNCERTAIN/. THINK IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF THE BEST
CONDITIONS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SO
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.
SUN THROUGH NEXT WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDER THAN THE GFS IN
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C OVER THE CWA FROM MON NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WED. THE GFS IS COLD AS WELL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -15C FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WED. OF COURSE...LES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
WOULD ALSO LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME POINT...BUT THIS IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE RIGHT
NOW...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE FOR LES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU TODAY...THOUGH WNW WIND FLOW WILL
FAVOR KCMX MORE THAN KIWD. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW FLURRIES. FOR THE
MOST PART...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
MORNING...THOUGH DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF WIND AT KSAW MAY LEAD TO OCNL
VFR. THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARD VFR IN THE AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT LIFTING OF THE MOISTURE LAYER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN LAKE HURON WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
QUEBEC THIS EVENING...LEAVING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY TO CROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
HUDSON BAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MOST INTERESTING THING WITH THE WEATHER TO MONITOR TODAY IS THE
SHRINKING OF THE SNOWPACK LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS SNOW ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. AS WE GET INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
US THIS SNOW...WE ARE SEEING OUR FLOW ALOFT TURN NW. WITH THE NW
FLOW COMES SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DROPPING
SOME CLOUD COVER DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. OF MORE
CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SE SODAK. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THEM NOW MOVING OVER THE
SNOWPACK...THE DECREASED MIXING THERE WILL LIKELY MEAN WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY LOSE THEM BEFORE THE SUNSETS...SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE THEM
EXPAND IN ONE FASHION OR ANOTHER TONIGHT. THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE FOG POTENTIAL SOME TONIGHT
AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT REMAINING TONIGHT TO KEEP WINDS
UP AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL MN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
MORE OF A STRATUS THAN A FOG CONCERN. ONLY LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE SW CWA...MORE OR LESS WHERE THE DEEPER SNOWPACK EXISTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND WILL BE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY. H850
THETA_E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT BASED ON THE FORCING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-94.
THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE CHANCE
POPS...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSISTENCY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES OFF LATE THURSDAY. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES EXPECT THE POPS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS... ACROSS SW MN... WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K
FEET WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MN OVERNIGHT. ITS
POSSIBLE THE AREA COULD EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND BRUSH KMSP.
SCT-BKN060-090 WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FROM KAXN TO KEAU WITH CLR-SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEST WINDS 4-7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NW
10-12 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE THREAT FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND
NORTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN AFTER 07Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT
INCLUDED SCT008 AS A HEADS UP. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN060-090 WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN040-060 THURSDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NW 10-12 KNOTS
THURSDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS BCMG S 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1141 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUIET/DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTN...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S...WHILE TO THE WEST IN INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 40S. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AS ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION...BEHIND THE TROUGH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND SETTLES ON
TO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT THE SREF IS INDICATING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE RAP OR OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ATTM. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN FCST WITH WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT...VERY
LITTLE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR CWA AND COLD/SUB FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS BEING SAID...IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPS WITH DAYTIME READINGS EDGING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
IN TERMS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BASIC ELEMENTS SUCH AS
TEMPERATURES/POPS...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS CURRENTLY A SPLIT
DECISION...FEATURING RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MON-WED
TIME FRAME. AT ANY RATE...THE ONLY PERIODS CURRENTLY FEATURING
ONLY SLIGHT...STILL-HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TUESDAY
IN THE EAST/SOUTH AND THEN WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.
GETTING INTO GREATER DETAIL AND STARTING WITH THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...UPPER FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE LOCALLY AS THE AREA
LIES IN BETWEEN A NORTHEAST CONUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EFFECT OF THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
BE HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH MOST AREAS
10+ MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PASSING CLOUDS AND BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO SHARPLY...AND KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
A BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BUT DID NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 32-35 AND SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY/GREELEY/WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING MAJOR ISSUES WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT THANKS
TO INCREASING BREEZES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT WILL BE ONGOING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...AS AGAIN EXPECT PLENTY OF
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE MT/WY AREA ON
SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5-10 MPH LIGHTER
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN IN THE WINDIER SOUTHEAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...OR
5-10 PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECT A NICE UPWARD BUMP FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. HAVE AIMED MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S RANGE...WITH MID 60S MOST
FAVORED IN KS ZONES AND THE DAWSON-FURNAS CORRIDOR IN THE WEST.
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES THIS IS ABOUT A 5-DEGREE UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON FRI NIGHT...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT NUDGES
INTO THE THE CWA...SIGNALED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT TO FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES. AGAIN...SUPPOSE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
CONTRIBUTION FROM MELTED SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE VISIBILITY
PRODUCT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/SREF ARE OVER-DOING THINGS...AND
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOG-FREE FOR NOW. CHANGED FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS LITTLE WITH MOST PLACES MID-30S.
SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH
GENERALLY SUNNIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS THE PRIMARY UPPER JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER. ON SATURDAY...BREEZES WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND
10 MPH FROM THE NORTH...AND THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH SATURDAY HIGHS RANGING
FROM LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...AND SUNDAY MID-UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
STEADILY DECREASES ALTHOUGH THAT BEING SAID...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS APPEAR IN STORE. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK. ALTHOUGH THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD 50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
PROVIDES A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COLDER MAINLY IN THE 40S. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF SOME LOW
STRATUS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NUISANCE LIGHT DRIZZLE...SO
THIS BEARS WATCHING. GETTING INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALONG A TRACK FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS TO EASTERN KS/MO. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO PASS
JUST EAST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT...NUISANCE PRECIP POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...STUCK WITH THE
INITIALIZED BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT RAIN ONLY
IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NO MENTION OF
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMP-WISE TUESDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HIGHS...AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MID 40S TO MID
50S...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF CAME IN 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW IN ALL AREAS...BUT THIS WAS LARGELY BASED OFF THE 00Z
ECMWF...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST RUN HAS COME IN DRY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES THE MAJORITY OF
FORCING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH IT. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE A COLDER TURN...ITS JUST A MATTER
OF HOW MUCH SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AIMS FOR A MID 30S-LOW 40S
RANGE IN MOST SPOTS...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS COLDER WITH MID 30S
MOST ALL PLACES. PLENTY TO SORT OUT HERE IN THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE ARE REMAINING UNDER QUIET NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECTING WHAT CLOUDS DO PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING WINDS W/NWRLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AS WE GET
TOWARD THIS EVENING/THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE VARIABLE
WINDS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
RAIN HAS BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING..MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1...IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND ONLY PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAP SHOWING WEAK 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GROWING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.1"-0.2". AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH
DRY UP ALL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925MB AT 18Z...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST AND LOWER 70S EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SINCE
STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RELATIVELY THICK THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. 64-71. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1310M FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S AND COOLER THAN
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER NC
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SPLIT... WITH PIECES OF THE RIDGE
HEADING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLIGHTLY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE FLAT AND FAST MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THE BETTER KINEMATICS AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING
WAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH... AS WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC... SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. THE PREDICTED PROFILE
OF TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SATURDAY NIGHT... PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE... THE COOL
START AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
BUT GENTLY CYCLONIC OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NE COAST... PUSHED BY A STRONGER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP WNW FLOW HOLDS OVER NC... DRAWING A PIECE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER NC... WHILE A STRONG E-W ORIENTED POLAR
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A VEIL OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD SUNDAY... SLIPPING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING
IN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO A
BONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY
BEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPT
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWN
TO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT
PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING
ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NW
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (AND
MUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSE
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TO
BUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
IN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...
MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
RAIN IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM KRDU EASTWARD WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE FORCING FOR THIS PRECIP WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
BEHIND UNTIL A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL AID IN SCOURING
CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 15-18Z AND WILL LIMITING PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES IN TO THE AREA AFTER
18Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING..MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1...IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND ONLY PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAP SHOWING WEAK 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GROWING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.1"-0.2". AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. THIS WILL PRETTY
MUCH DRY UP ALL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925MB AT 18Z...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST AND LOWER 70S EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SINCE
STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RELATIVELY THICK THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. 64-71. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1310M FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S AND COOLER THAN
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER NC
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SPLIT... WITH PIECES OF THE RIDGE
HEADING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLIGHTLY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE FLAT AND FAST MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THE BETTER KINEMATICS AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING
WAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH... AS WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC... SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. THE PREDICTED PROFILE
OF TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SATURDAY NIGHT... PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE... THE COOL
START AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
BUT GENTLY CYCLONIC OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NE COAST... PUSHED BY A STRONGER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP WNW FLOW HOLDS OVER NC... DRAWING A PIECE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER NC... WHILE A STRONG E-W ORIENTED POLAR
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A VEIL OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD SUNDAY... SLIPPING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING
IN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO A
BONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY
BEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPT
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWN
TO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT
PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING
ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NW
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (AND
MUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSE
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TO
BUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
IN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...
MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MODEL FORECAST ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS WILL REACH. CURRENTLY TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM KRDU
EASTWARD BY 08Z AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WHILE MORE PATCHY
AROUND KGSO AND KINT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND ERODING THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING..MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1...IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND ONLY PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAP SHOWING WEAK 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GROWING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.1"-0.2". AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. THIS WILL PRETTY
MUCH DRY UP ALL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925MB AT 18Z...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST AND LOWER 70S EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SINCE
STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RELATIVELY THICK THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. 64-71. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
A POSITIVE-TILTED L/W TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...A DISSIPATING
BAND OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA AS PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO A WESTERLY-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ELIMINATE/ LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND ALL
WHILE THE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER/MID 70S SE. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ABRUPT WEST-EAST
CLEARING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CAA DRIVEN
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON
FRI...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SAT MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER NC
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SPLIT... WITH PIECES OF THE RIDGE
HEADING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLIGHTLY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE FLAT AND FAST MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THE BETTER KINEMATICS AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING
WAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH... AS WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC... SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. THE PREDICTED PROFILE
OF TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SATURDAY NIGHT... PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE... THE COOL
START AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
BUT GENTLY CYCLONIC OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NE COAST... PUSHED BY A STRONGER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP WNW FLOW HOLDS OVER NC... DRAWING A PIECE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER NC... WHILE A STRONG E-W ORIENTED POLAR
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A VEIL OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD SUNDAY... SLIPPING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING
IN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO A
BONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY
BEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPT
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWN
TO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT
PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING
ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NW
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (AND
MUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSE
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TO
BUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
IN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...
MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MODEL FORECAST ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS WILL REACH. CURRENTLY TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM KRDU
EASTWARD BY 08Z AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WHILE MORE PATCHY
AROUND KGSO AND KINT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND ERODING THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
803 PM PST WED NOV 6 2013
CORRECTED MARINE SECTION...
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THEN SWEEP INLAND...REACHING THE CASCADES ABOUT MIDDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WIND LATE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
VERY BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS PRIMARILY THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING PRIMARILY TO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND WAVES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TONIGHT...NWS PORTLAND DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
WESTERN OREGON. THE 00Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN DIMINISHING BUT NOT
COMPLETELY STOPPING. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 14Z.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 47N
134W AT 0330Z. THE 00Z NAM SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID AT 03Z SEEMED TO BE
A BIT TOO FAR EAST WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER...ITS 1005 LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO REALITY. FRONT PASSED BUOY036 AROUND 01Z.
LOWEST PRESSURE AT BUOY 036 WAS 1008.7 MB...BUT WAS NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER. NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW OVERNIGHT...REACHING A
MINIMUM PRES OF 997 MB AS IT MOVES INSIDE 130W.
.THURSDAY...THIS GENERAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREAS WILL RESULT IN A WET AND BREEZY DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SOUTH WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY
PEAK IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE BEFORE TEMPORARILY DROPPING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 4KM WRFGFS VALID 12Z THU INDICATES 30-35 KT
SUSTAINED WIND ALONG THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON COAST. THE NAM
SHOWS 50 KT 925 MB WIND BARBS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AT
15Z...JUST BEFORE COLD-FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO VERY
CLOSE HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS FOR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST...BUT
WILL KEEP THE WIND JUST BELOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY
ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS AT HEADLAND LOCATIONS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH WIND EARLIER IN THE MORNING...WILL ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECONDARY SURGE
OF WIND WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND
FAR NORTH OREGON COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT NEAR 7500 FT TONIGHT BEFORE CRASHING
RATHER ABRUPTLY TO NEAR 4000 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO THE PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR THE OREGON CASCADE PASSES WITH CLOSER TO A FOOT OF SNOW
LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6KFT. THE DEEPEST INSTABILITY AND BEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THIS BEARS
WATCHING.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT
IN SHOWERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES FRIDAY BEFORE GENERALLY DISSIPATING COMPLETELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHTLY CLEARER PICTURE IS EMERGING IN REGARD
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH BEST ESTIMATES PLACING IT GENERALLY IN LINE WITH OR
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO WASHINGTON STATE ON SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING NUDGES IT
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND ON
SATURDAY WILL SPLIT AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL
ENTRAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE. EARLY ON MONDAY
THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE. MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES THEREAFTER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THE AREA WILL SEE CONTINUED UNSETTLED AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BURGESS
&&
.AVIATION...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THU AM. REMNANTS
OF WARM FRONT OVER REGION MAINTAINING STATUS QUO TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP INLAND AND IFR TO MVFR ALONG
THE COAST. AREAS TO S OF KSLE ARE OUT OF THE RAIN AND IN MUCH
BETTER CONDITIONS JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THESE AREA OF BETTER
CIGS MAY WORK ITS WAY AS FAR N AS KPDX THROUGH 09Z...BUT SUSPECT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY MVFR IN/AROUND KPDX.
S WINDS AND RAIN INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCALLY IFR...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MTNS REMAIN OBSCURED.
COLD FRONT ON COAST AROUND 15Z...AND TO CASCADES AROUND 19Z.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. CIGS LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL 21Z TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
12Z...ALONG WITH LIGHT E WINDS. AFTER 12Z...RAIN INCREASING. CIGS
REMAIN MVFR...WITH MVFR VIS DEVELOPING AS RAIN INCREASES. FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...WITH WINDS TURNING
S TO SW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT.ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. COLD FRONT STILL ABOUT 250 MILES
OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TO EAST STEADILY. 985 MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST OF WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND
TONIGHT AND THU AM. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU. STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SOLID S GALES
LATER TONIGHT AND THU AM...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER THU. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FT...BUT WILL STEADILY
BUILD UP TO 15 TO 20 FT AFTER 3 AM AS WINDS INCREASE.
SEAS HOLD AROUND 17 TO 20 FT THU AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SUBSIDE THU
NIGHT AND FRI. WINDS WILL EASE THU EVENING AS WELL. HIGH PRES OVER
COASTAL WATERS WILL BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR FRI. ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND THU FOR THE NORTH COASTAL WATERS...
OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THU AM ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THU.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES WITH A DRYING PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY THEREFORE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST REDUCING POPS WILL GO UNCHANGED. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE FROPA. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR EARLY ONSET STRATO CU. FINALLY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 135 AM EST THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF
EAST/CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LEVEL STRATO CU CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UPSTATE.
AS FOR THE FROPA...EXPECTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE CWFA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
DECREASING QPF EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...HIGHLIGHTED CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY ON BEFORE INTRODUCING
A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ALL MENTIONABLE POPS
REMOVED BY 00Z FRIDAY. NEITHER INSTABILITY NOR SHEAR LOOK TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRENCH
BROAD RIVER VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELING EFFECTS. LIKEWISE...BEHIND THE
FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS BULK MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
OFF. WITH THAT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING A
PLEASANT/COOLER NIGHT AHEAD. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM
8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EST THURSDAY...LLVL SFC RIDGING BENEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 3
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY. AS SFC RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE COAST
ON SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES. SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS BARELY DISCERNIBLE FRONT SLIPS BY OFF TO
OUR NORTH. LLVL RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE WARMING TREND BOOSTS MAX TEMPERATURE TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
MONDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LVL PATTERN OVER THE REGION AND
BROAD UPPER RIDING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUES AT WHICH TIME THE POLAR JET DIVES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS CLOSING OFF A
WELL DEFINED H5 LOW JUST TO OUR NW BY 00Z THURS AND THE ECMWF DOING
THE SAME...BUT WITH A SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER LOW.
AT THE SFC...A REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH
DISSIPATES AS WE MOVE INTO TUES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BEYOND THIS POINT STILL UNCLEAR. THE GFS KEEPS ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WELL TO OUR WEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY TRYING TO SPIN
UP A LOW OFF THE SE COAST. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE OF A
MOIST...WEDGE LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS THRU DAY 7 WITH THE
PARENT HIGH PERSISTING TO OUR NORTH. I HAVE INCREASE POPS UP TO
SOLID CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WED
AND THURS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. TEMP TRENDS WERE NOT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...WILL INITIALIZE TAF WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG FOR
THE FIRST 2 HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO LOW END VFR LEVELS. DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AND PULL MENTION OF SHRA AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON
AS LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE REPLACED MENTION OF -SHRA WITH VCSH FOR THE 19Z
GROUP. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO SOLID VFR
LEVELS WITH HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS HANGING AROUND. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL INCREASE AND VEER NORTH OF WEST AROUND THE 19Z TIMEFRAME
AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES BY. LATE IN THE PERIOD SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL INITIALIZE TAF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL DUE TO FOG BEFORE LOWERING CIGS TO HIGH END
MVFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THAT TIME INTRODUCED MENTION OF -SHRA AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THAT AT LEAST SOME SHRA WILL BE
OBSERVED. WILL HOLD MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES SCT OUT YIELDING SKC CONDITIONS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR KHKY...WILL INITIALIZE TAF WITH MENTION
OF MVFR FOG WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2HR TEMPO FOR POSSIBLE IFR VISB
RESTRICTIONS. BEYOND THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS
WITH MENTION OF VCSH AS SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OUT AHEAD OF FROPA.
AS WITH THE OTHER LOCATIONS...SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE
IN SPEED AND VEER NORTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH EACH
LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ADJACENT
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL DUE TO CHANNELING IN THE FRENCH BROAD
RIVER VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z
KCLT HIGH 86% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 74% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
708 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SO FAR...ONLY SCT MIXED PCPN HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER NC WI...AS WAS
EXPECTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. OVERALL...NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION
SEEN ON THE AREA RADAR MOSAIC...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 22Z HRRR SHOWS SCT PCPN OVER SE MN/W WI
BLOSSOMING AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DUE TO
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/W TROF...WAA AND THE
LFQ OF THE UPPER JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO CONCERNED THAT PCPN-TYPE MAY END UP BEING MAINLY SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WET BULB TEMPS ARE HOVERING AT
OR A LITTLE BLO FREEZING. CROSSHAIRS SIGNATURES (MAX OMEGA
COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) SHOWING UP ON TIMESECTIONS
OVER THE FAR NORTH...SO A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP ACCUMS A LITTLE BIT THERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST ISSUE WILL BE DEALING WITH A BAND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION (WAA) PRECIP PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN...HOWEVER EVAPORATIVE COOLER SHOULD COOL THE
COLUMN ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. HAD
REPORTS OF SPRINKLES...FLURRIES...AND EVEN SLEET WITH THE PRECIP
TO OUR WEST. SO WITHOUT MAKING IT TOO COMPLICATED IN THE
GRIDS...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WI...WITH RAIN OVER FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
ONCE THE WAA PRECIP PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL SPREAD MORE PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA. BEST AREA OF FORCING WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER JET. WILL CARRY LIKELY
POPS NORTH AND HIGH-END CHANCE POPS SOUTH. OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
MIXING WITH SLEET (OR SNOW) SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE...
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE NORTH...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
MORE OF A CONCERN. CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THICKNESSES HOVER AROUND THE
MI/WI BORDER MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF RHI...WITH MORE SNOW CLOSER TO THE BORDER. MODELS SHOW UP
TO 0.3 INCHES OF QPF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SO IF IT IS ALL
SNOW COULD GET UP TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME MIXING TO
OCCUR SO WILL HOLD ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 2 INCHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP LATE TONIGHT.
CYCLONIC ALOFT KICKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. SATURDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY AS 925MB WINDS OF 30-40 WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MIXING TO AROUND 3000FT SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO
REACH BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. COLD
AIR ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND WITH
WEST/DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES TO THE FAR NORTH. THE 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY. SOME QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM LARGE SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH. THINK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OR END MONDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR AT 850MB (-16C TO -19C) EXPECTED TO PLUNGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE DEPICTED FALLING TEMPERATURES
IN THE GRIDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW DUE
TO MOISTURE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING...AS A
SFC LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES ARE PSBL EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. RAIN IS EXPECTED AT
AUW/CWA/GRB/ATW...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED AT RHI. SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING...
WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER PCPN. LLWS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING...AS STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP JUST ABOVE THE SFC. LOOK FOR THE LLWS TO DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT...BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 KTS
BETWEEN 03-12Z SATURDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS DEGREE OF MIXING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT...ONLY MINIMAL
MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN GALE FORCE GUSTS...SO WILL UPGRADE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO A GALE WARNING FROM 00-12Z
SATURDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT WINDS
ALOFT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SO THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS FREQUENT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1110 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS SHORTWAVE
DRIVING SE FROM ERN ND/WRN MN. THIS REINFORCING THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MILLIBAR TEMPS COOLING UPSTREAM
TO -30 TO -32C. MVFR DECK HAS ADVECTED ACROSS SRN WI WITH LIGHT
RETURNS MOVING SEWD FROM NEAR KEAU...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL TO REACH THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND SREF CIG PROG
SUGGEST GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS WI BY 12Z FRI. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED FRI MRNG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 40S MOST
PLACES TODAY. IT APPEARS WE/LL BE CLOUDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NRN IA IS
EXPANDING AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS IS IN A REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE HRRR
IS DOING THE BEST JOB ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AT THIS
TIME.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE KICKING
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
GET PRETTY STEEP AND MOISTURE IN THE WEST EXTENDS TO ABOUT
7KFT...IT/S LESS IMPRESSIVE TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION DIVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST IL
THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING BACK CLEARING
SKIES BY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AS DOES THE 500MB RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTS INTO OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS BRING A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THE NAM/CANADIAN TRACKS
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE
AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE DRIER NAM FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY ON SATURDAY. 500MB FLOW IS ZONAL DURING
THIS TIME. GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS...AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING OFF.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MODEST AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY BRING
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THEY THEN BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT ON THE GFS...AND MONDAY ON THE ECMWF. NO 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE
ECMWF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIGHT SNOW THAN LIGHT RAIN DURING
THIS TIME...GIVEN COOL LOOK OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME.
ECMWF HAS AN AREA OF QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND LOW LEVEL FETCH. THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD...GIVEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES THIS FAR
OUT. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE COLD DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THERE IS AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA THAT IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND
EXPANDING WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS BEST AND HAS IT ROLLING INTO MADISON BY
ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING AND MILWAUKEE A FEW HOURS LATER. BY THAT
POINT IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY AN MVFR DECK THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SCOURING OUT
TOWARD LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING TONIGHT.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN TO
NORTHEAST SD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD ND FROM
SASKAT. THESE FEATURES GENERALLY PRODUCING SCT-BKN 4K-9K FT CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN ND TO WESTERN WI/SOUTHEAST MN. CLOUDS/MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 1500 FT RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST MN/SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHWEST
IA...ORIGINATING FROM THE SNOW COVER THERE AND STUCK IN/UNDER AN
INVERSION NEAR 900MB...WERE SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE FCST AREA.
THIS WITH WSR-88D MIGRATORY BIRD CONTAMINATED VAD WINDS INDICATING
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 40-50KTS AT 925MB. 07.00Z KABR/KMPX/KOMA RA-OBS
SHOWING THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 925MB ADVECTING THE CLOUDS
INTO THE FCST AREA.
07.00Z MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE MEDIUM TO LARGER SCALE
DETAILS. TIGHTER CONSENSUS TRENDS TOWARD STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS AS
THE SASKAT SHORTWAVE DROPS PAST THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HGTS
START TO QUICKLY RISE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
MT BY 12Z FRI. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE
REASONABLE WITH THE CENTRAL NOAM SFC FIELDS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL
LOOKED GOOD WITH THE SASKAT SHORTWAVE WHILE GEM/GFS/ECMWF LOOKED
BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING OR/WA. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE GOOD THIS CYCLE AND FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. INCREASING
SIGNAL AMONG HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DEEPEN TO AS MUCH AS 700MB OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY. THIS AS THE
SASKAT SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO EASTERN IA BY 00Z. LOWER LEVEL LAPSES
RATES STEEPEN FOR LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL
WARMING AND 800-700MB COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SOME WEAK SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. ADDED SPRINKLE/FLURRY
MENTION FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA. SFC-500MB RIDGING BUILD QUICKLY EAST INTO MN/IA/WI
TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY WESTERLY SFC-850MB WILL SCOUR THE LOWER
CLOUDS/MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SPEED OF
THE NEXT WAVE AND THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ALREADY APPROACHING THE AREA
BY 12Z FRI...MOISTURE/CLOUDS ABOVE 500MB ALREADY START TO SPILL
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE QUICKLY PASSING SFC
RIDGE AXIS AND SFC GRADIENT WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN AROUND 5KTS
TONIGHT...DID NOT ADD ANY FOG MENTION TO FCST GRIDS FOR LATE
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...-RA/
POSSIBLE -SN CHANCES FRI/FRI NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
07.00Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR FRI/FRI
NIGHT AS THE WAVE OFF THE OR/WA COAST RACES TO NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS
BORDER BY 00Z SAT. GFS/ECMWF STRONGER/MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS
THAN NAM/GEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE AT 00Z SAT. GIVEN ITS APPEARANCE IN
WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS AT 00Z SAT
SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. ECMWF WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AT 36/48HRS AS WELL. TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT FAVORS
FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISING HGTS SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH
MODELS IN 2 CAMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRI...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE FRI-SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE. SIDED WITH THE MODEL/
CONSENSUS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH PRESERVES SOME
FCST GRID CONSISTENCY UNTIL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES FRI/FRI NIGHT
SORT THEMSELVES OUT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRI AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THIS GOES INTO
WARMING. MIXING DEPTHS TO BE LIMITED FRI DUE TO THE 925-850MB
WARMING. WINDS FRI/FRI EVENING LOOKING TO BE 10-20KTS G20-30KTS
UNTIL THE SFC FRONT PASSES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRI INTO
FRI EVENING...MAINLY ABOVE 700MB. APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PROVIDES LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GIVEN THE DRY AND WARMING SFC-700MB
LAYER FOR PRECIP PARTICLES TO FALL THRU BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...
LEFT PRECIP CHANCES FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...
WHICH BLEND WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. WITH ALL THE 925-850MB
WARMING...BULK OF ANY PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING TO BE
-RA. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A COOLER COLUMN AND NORTH OF THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC-500MB LOW/
TROUGH SEND 925MB TEMPS BACK BELOW 0C BY 12Z SUN. TRENDED HIGHS/
LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT TOWARD THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 07.00Z ALREADY SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON SUNDAY...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS TOWARD
LK SUPERIOR...GFS FASTER/ECMWF SLOWER. THESE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER SUN...BUT DO LEAD TO
DIFFERENCES WHICH IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MON/TUE AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMES IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CARVES OUT MORE TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER/IMPROVING CONSISTENCY WED AS THIS
TROUGHING EXITS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND STRONG/COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION. MODEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SUN/MON THEN
RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TUE/WED...BUT GIVEN SOME IMPROVING
BETWEEN MODEL CONSENSUS...THE DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.
EVEN WITH SOME TROUGHING DIFFERENCES TO THE NORTH...THE PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE REGION AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TROUGHING SLIDING BY TO THE
NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT/MON DRIVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE REGION.
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES IT AND WHERE SATURATION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING HIGH/COLD DOME WOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF
LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW. TRACK/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE REGION IMPACTS TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY SNOW BAND AS WELL.
WITH THE MODEST CONSISTENCY AND A SIGNAL AMONG GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR AT
LEAST SOME 700-50000MB MOISTURE TO OVER-RIDE THE ADVANCING COOL DOME
MONDAY...ADDED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. SMALL -SN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE
GOOD FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS. IMPROVING
SIGNAL FOR A LARGE/COLD CAN HIGH TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUE/WED. GFS/ECMWF BOTH PROG 925MB TEMPS IN THE -7C TO -10C
RANGE LATE TUE...WARMING ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BY LATE WED. TUE/WED
SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE COLD DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
30S. GIVEN THE MODEST/AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA SNOW PACK HAVE
SURVIVED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 07.03Z RAP HAS NOW GONE BACK TO
ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF CONTINUING TO BRING THESE CLOUDS EASTWARD
INTO BOTH TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS STILL NOT REAL HIGH AS
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE CLOUDS SURVIVE ONCE THEY MOVE OFF THE
SNOW PACK. NONE THE LESS...HAVE HONORED THE RAP SOLUTION AND
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES. IF THEY
DO MAKE IT IN...THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT CARRY THEM PAST MID
MORNING. THE 07.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE MOISTURE WORKING
SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND MANITOBA ACROSS MAINLY WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT HAS ALSO SLOWED THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SO OPTED TO
INCLUDE A BROKEN VFR CEILING AT KLSE WHILE JUST GOING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KRST. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT
WITH SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.
.&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 40S MOST
PLACES TODAY. IT APPEARS WE/LL BE CLOUDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NRN IA IS
EXPANDING AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS IS IN A REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE HRRR
IS DOING THE BEST JOB ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AT THIS
TIME.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE KICKING
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
GET PRETTY STEEP AND MOISTURE IN THE WEST EXTENDS TO ABOUT
7KFT...IT/S LESS IMPRESSIVE TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION DIVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST IL
THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING BACK CLEARING
SKIES BY MORNING.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AS DOES THE 500MB RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTS INTO OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS BRING A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THE NAM/CANADIAN TRACKS
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE
AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE DRIER NAM FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY ON SATURDAY. 500MB FLOW IS ZONAL DURING
THIS TIME. GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS...AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING OFF.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MODEST AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY BRING
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THEY THEN BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT ON THE GFS...AND MONDAY ON THE ECMWF. NO 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE
ECMWF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIGHT SNOW THAN LIGHT RAIN DURING
THIS TIME...GIVEN COOL LOOK OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME.
ECMWF HAS AN AREA OF QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND LOW LEVEL FETCH. THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD...GIVEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES THIS FAR
OUT. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE COLD DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THERE IS AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA THAT IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND
EXPANDING WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS BEST AND HAS IT ROLLING INTO MADISON BY
ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING AND MILWAUKEE A FEW HOURS LATER. BY THAT
POINT IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY AN MVFR DECK THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SCOURING OUT
TOWARD LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
AT 3 PM...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS WAS PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS PRODUCING A BROKEN
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE 06.12Z AND 06.18Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB. WHILE THE 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 9 C/KM...THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THIS MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. THE GEM IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND
WEAKER WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
AIR BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER THE ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE DEEP
LIFT BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB...AND STRONG 280-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS AREA. AS RESULT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE GROUND. DUE TO THIS INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN THE PRODUCTION OF
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE GFS AND GEM AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
ECMWF. GFS SOUNDINGS SOUNDINGS SHOW 100 TO 200 MB LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THE GFS COBB LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO
CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 13-16 TO 1...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES. HOWEVER IF THE LOWER QPF IS CORRECT
IN THE ECMWF...THESE TOTALS WOULD BE MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE. THESE SNOW TOTALS MAY BE EVEN LOWER IN THE GEM DUE TO ITS
FURTHER NORTHEAST TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT IS ALSO FASTER WITH ITS SYSTEM. DUE TO
THESE COMPLEXITIES JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 30
PERCENT FOR NOW.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE 06.12Z GFS PRODUCED BAD SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14.00Z. THE TEMPERATURES PLUNGED FROM
THE UPPER 20S AT 13.18Z TO AROUND 5F BY 14.00Z. THESE VALUES
SHOWED UP IN AWIPS AND COBB DATA. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS IS PHYSICALLY NOT POSSIBLE.
THINKING THAT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME TYPE DECODING ERROR IN THE
MODEL. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THESE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY MADE
THEIR WAY INTO GFE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND AFFECTED OUR ALL
BLEND TEMPERATURE DATA. AS A RESULT...CREATED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHOUT GFS BEING IN IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA SNOW PACK HAVE
SURVIVED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 07.03Z RAP HAS NOW GONE BACK TO
ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF CONTINUING TO BRING THESE CLOUDS EASTWARD
INTO BOTH TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS STILL NOT REAL HIGH AS
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE CLOUDS SURVIVE ONCE THEY MOVE OFF THE
SNOW PACK. NONE THE LESS...HAVE HONORED THE RAP SOLUTION AND
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES. IF THEY
DO MAKE IT IN...THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT CARRY THEM PAST MID
MORNING. THE 07.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE MOISTURE WORKING
SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND MANITOBA ACROSS MAINLY WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT HAS ALSO SLOWED THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SO OPTED TO
INCLUDE A BROKEN VFR CEILING AT KLSE WHILE JUST GOING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KRST. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT
WITH SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
348 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
Much of the Midwest between systems this morning as high pressure
slides to the east and an low pushes across the great lakes. Cold
front expected to pass through ILX today, bringing slightly cooler
air, but dry. Fairly progressive pattern in fast flow across the
CONUS today will continue through much of the forecast pd. Much
more amplified flow anticipated with next big forecast issue...a
low passing through southern Canada and bringing a front as well
Monday/Mon night. Within the more amplified flow, the Arctic air
opens up and pushes into the Midwest with much colder temperatures
with that front. Models starting to dig a trof in the SW going
into next weekend. Looks like a hint at a pattern change to a
possible split flow and not too stable just yet in the extended.
Forecast at this point remains conservative overall with very few
changes.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Breezy conditions today as approaching front compressing some
isobars across Central Illinois. Some warming anticipated to push
temps into the upper 50s/lower 60s before the cooler air with the
weak cold front this afternoon. Pretty good temp drop anticipated
tonight as skies clear out under the ridge and radiational cooling
is maximized. Tomorrows highs about 10 degrees below todays.
Tomorrow nights lows a bit warmer, though concerned that the
guidance is warming too much as the southerly component to the
winds does not kick in until early morning, and the cloud cover is
lacking particularly in the east. May need an adjustment,
depending on the speed of the cloud cover increase ahead of the
next front.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Next front a result of a deeper trof digging in over the region as
much cooler air taps into the Arctic airmass to the north. Precip
will be short lived...but persisting behind the front resulting in
a switch over to a mixed precip. Models have been speeding up a
bit with the progression of this particular system. 00z NAM and
GFS falling in line as well, even pulling ahead of the timing of
the ECMWF. Differences, however, show up with available moisture
for this system...and the NAM is producing far less RH in the
boundary layer until the Ohio River Valley. Tuesdays high
temperatures confined to the 30s behind the front. Remainder of
the 7 days dry and temperatures slowly recovering from the cold
blast, albeit slowly climbing to the upper 40s/lower 50s by the
end of the week.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Strong compact vort max moving across upper Mississippi Valley
tonight continues to produce gusty south winds and a strong low-
level jet above the boundary layer. KILX VWP indicating 51 kts at
1300ft AGL. Latest RUC suggests LLJ may intensify a bit more
before shifting east and weakening by sunrise. Will retain LLWS
wording on ongoing TAFs. The combination of clouds in place and
the gusty winds has prevented much of a nocturnal inversion from
developing. As the night progresses, upstream observations and IR
imagery suggest that some partial clearing is likely and may be
sufficient enough to reduce sfc winds somewhat sooner than aloft,
Will include this trend in the new set of terminals.
Latest model suite is a bit drier than previous run with respect to
mid-level moisture and will reduce cloud coverage forecast to SCT
for Saturday and SKC Saturday evening. A weak cold front trailing the
system moving across the Great lakes should produce a wind shift
from SW to NW during the later part of the day with a drop off in
speed during the evening.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1203 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
255 PM CST
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE VERY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS...WITH BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL FIRST FOCUS ON
THE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A
STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A SHARP COLD PUSH AND POSSIBLY SOME
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN
EXCESS OF 6 MB/3HR ARE REALLY KICKING UP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND WAA ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE COMPONENT
TO THESE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB TO WARM AROUND +14 TO 15 C AT KLBF AND KDDC THIS MORNING PER
THE 12 UTC RAOBS. THE 12 UTC RAOBS ALSO INDICATED WINDS SPEEDS UP
AROUND 40KT AT 850 MB ACROSS THESE AREAS OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA...AND AREA PROFILER AND VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS
HAVE FURTHER INCREASED TO AROUND 50 KT THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THIS STRONGER LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL SET UP RIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOME STRONGER GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM NICELY ON SATURDAY AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT 850 AND 925 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 2-4 AND 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS...RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM...THIS
SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTH AND THE LOW 60S
SOUTH....AND THIS THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND THE GOING FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVERSPREAD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 20 TO 25
MPH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO
VEER MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH LOOK TO
BE A GOOD BET ALSO...ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. SO
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY...IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY.
THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...MAINLY FAR NORTH...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME
WEAK VIRGA TYPE ECHOS OUT WEST ACROSS IOWA. THIS AREA IS IN AN AREA
OF GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...POOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
HENCE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIENT ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR
MUCH TO DEVELOP OUT OF THE HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE A DEFINITE THIS EVENING...BUT I AM NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEMS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND DOMINATE THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN SOME AREAS.
THE BIG STORY FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A COLD PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA. A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG RIDGE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC...JUST WEST OF THE DATE LINE...AND A DEEP
TROUGH/LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER TROUGH...WITH A COLD AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM THE YUKON
TERRITORIES OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA...TO DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS STRONG PUSH
OF COLD AIR DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A COLD PATTERN SETTING
UP IS INCREASING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
THE PUSH A COLD AIR APPEARS TO SET UP A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING.
THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITIES OF A PERIOD SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...APPEARS THAT IT
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GOOD BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS SOUTHWARD DIGGING TROUGH COULD ALSO SET UP A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PATTERN FOR BETTER FORCING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH AN ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100+ KT
UPPER JET POSSIBLY SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE AN GOOD
ANAFRONT TYPE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH MOST THE PRECIP FALLING IN THE
COLD SECTOR. AS A RESULT OF THIS...THERE IS A DECENT POSSIBILITY FOR
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
MODERATE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE FGEN...COULD ALSO RESULT IN
A SMALL WINDOW OF SOME MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT
BE A REAL SNOW MAKER FOR US...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IF THIS STRONGER FORCING DOES MATERIALS.
A VERY STRONG SURFACE HIGH...AROUND 1045 MB...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES INTO TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP A GOOD NORTHERLY FETCH DOWN
LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY DIPPING TO OR
EVEN COLDER THAN -10 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES CELSIUS...THIS WILL SET UP A THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
FEATURING DELTA T`S IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES AND EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS AT
OR JUST ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLY
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT IT IS WAY TO EARLY FOR AMOUNTS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL...COLD WILL BE THE MAIN STORY. WITH THE 850 TEMPS PROGGED
TO DROP DOWN AROUND -10...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
MUCH ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EASILY
DROP INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS AWAY FROM THE CITY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TRY TO MODERATE SOME LATE IN THE WEEK SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KJB
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SOUTH WINDS ARND 15-19KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 21-25KT THRU 09Z.
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 2KFT AGL TO 55KT FROM THE S TO SW THRU
DAYBREAK.
* SOUTH WINDS VEERING SOUTHWEST WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN THE GUSTS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...THEN GUSTS RETURN TO 25-30KT BY MIDDAY.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN
AIRFIELDS HAS ALLOWED A STRONG CORE OF WINDS ALOFT AT 2KFT AGL TO
55-60 KTS TO DEVELOP LLVL WS OVER THE TAF SITES. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS CORE OF WINDS WILL QUICKLY PEEL
OFF TO THE EAST BY 09Z. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DECOUPLED WINDS
AT THE SFC AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS AND WIND SPEEDS DECREASING
ARND 09-12Z. THEN SHORTLY AFT DAYBREAK MIXING WILL RETURN AND HELP
BRING SPEEDS AND GUSTS BACK BY MIDDAY SAT TO 25-30KT AS WINDS
SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLVL WS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF WINDS TURNING SW TO W.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH A CHC FOR A MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TUESDAY...CHC FOR MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR LIKELY.
MTF
&&
.MARINE...
316 PM CST
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO
GALES THIS EVENING. VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE INHIBITED DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION...BUT SOME OF THE MOMENTUM FROM WINDS PUSHING 60 KTS AT
ABOUT 2500-3000 FT WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED DOWN AT TIMES...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD SURFACE GUSTS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 40-45 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50 KTS A POSSIBILITY. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THOUGH DID PUSH BACK THE START
TIME A FEW HOURS FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE AS THE WINDS APPEAR
TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE. A SHORT LULL IN
THE GALES IS EXPECTED SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT BECOMES A BIT BAGGY WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT THE
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR DEEPER MIXING.
A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OVER JAMES BAY MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST GALES ARE ONCE AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MIDDAY MONDAY...TAPERING MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4
AM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743...4 AM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ744-LMZ745...4 AM SATURDAY TO 3 PM
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1102 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 823 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Increased wind gusts this evening. Otherwise forecast on track.
Pressure falls are centered over Illinois this evening leading to
gusty conditions continuing onto the evening. Pressure fall center
has been weakening past hour or so and shifting closer to the
expected track of low pressure over southeast North Dakota will
continue to move rapidly east.
Barker
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Strong compact vort max moving across upper Mississippi Valley
tonight continues to produce gusty south winds and a strong low-
level jet above the boundary layer. KILX VWP indicating 51 kts at
1300ft AGL. Latest RUC suggests LLJ may intensify a bit more
before shifting east and weakening by sunrise. Will retain LLWS
wording on ongoing TAFs. The combination of clouds in place and
the gusty winds has prevented much of a nocturnal inversion from
developing. As the night progresses, upstream observations and IR
imagery suggest that some partial clearing is likely and may be
sufficient enough to reduce sfc winds somewhat sooner than aloft,
Will include this trend in the new set of terminals.
Latest model suite is a bit drier than previous run with respect to
mid-level moisture and will reduce cloud coverage forecast to SCT
for Saturday and SKC Saturday evening. A weak cold front trailing the
system moving across the Great lakes should produce a wind shift
from SW to NW during the later part of the day with a drop off in
speed during the evening.
Barker
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
The weather pattern will remain zonal with fast moving weather
systems through early next week. Monday night, an Arctic trough
will dig into the midwest and push our coldest air of the season
into Illinois. While a period of light snow will be possible
Monday night, no accumulation is expected. Below normal temps will
prevail Monday night through Wed at least.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.
Mid and high clouds will drift across the skies tonight, as low
pressure moves from the Dakotas into the western Great Lakes. Southerly
winds feeding into that system will help keep our lows warmer than
last night. The warmer air will surge into the western areas
first, keeping lows in the lower 40s NW of the IL river, while
lows drop into the upper 30s southeast of I-70.
Saturday should turn into a pleasant Fall day as highs climb into
the lower 60s in many areas. A dry cold front will usher a brief
airmass change for Sunday, as highs struggle to climb into the lower
50s. Monday should see some improvement in temperatures south of
I-74 as the next low moves across southern Canada and an Arctic
cold front approaches Illinois. The timing of arrival of that
front is still a bit in question. In general, it appears the front
will move through IL during the day Monday, and much colder air
will arrive for Monday night. Post-frontal rain showers are
expected to develop Monday afternoon. The cold air rushing into
the area will work to change the precip to snow Monday evening,
but dry air aloft will be working to end the precip at the same
time. So any change over to snow should be brief enough to prevent
any snow accumulation. Also, the ground temps should remain above
freezing long enough to melt any snowfall.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.
Any snow showers Monday night will be east of Illinois by sunrise
on Tuesday, with high temps well below normal for Tuesday
afternoon. We expect highs to remain the in the 30s in most areas,
which are usually highs for the 2nd week of December. Lows will
likely dip into the teens north of I-72/74 Tuesday night under clear
skies and light winds.
A gradual warming trend will occur the remainder of the week as
the Arctic high settles into the southeastern states, and southerly
winds persist for a few days. It will still feel like Fall
however, with highs by Friday only in the upper 40s to around 50.
EJS
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
439 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
SQUEEZE BTWN CLIPPER SYS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES AND
STG RIDGING CNTRD OVR THE SERN US YIELDING AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY GOING FWD AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE LAKES. PEAK SFC GUSTS LOOK TO
OCCUR IN 15-18Z WINDOW TIMED W/STG MOMENTUM XFER AND GEOSTROPHIC FLW
W/00Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKING A BIT WEAK. SHRT TERM RUC PROGS
WOULD INDICATE 40KT GUSTS FOR A TIME LT MORNING ACRS NW OH WITHIN
RETREATING LLJ CORE AND QUITE PSBL ESP IF SIG INSOLATION DVLPS.
OTRWS SHALLOW CDFNTL BNDRY TO SHIFT THROUGH CWA LT THIS AFTN/EVE
W/MOD FOLLOWING CAA SURGE ESP LT TONIGHT AS LL FLW VEERS MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY NWRLY. MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM COMPARED
TO 2M PROGS AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FM PREV FCST...ESP SW
THIRD AWAY FM ANY LK CLD INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE NAM...WITH GFS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE NAM OVER SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...
THE GFS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A
NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH. THE SRF/ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUPPORT A
MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST FETCH WITH PARCELS TRAVELLING OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. CONCERN FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS DELTA T VALUES REFLECT EXTREME
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT TEMPERATURES
COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR FCST THIS PD. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET MIGRATING
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES THIS MORNING W/SFC GUSTS SURPRISING TO THE
UPSIDE AS MID-HIGH CLD CVR IN ASSOCN/W UPR TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH
THE NRN LAKES AND SWRLY LL WAA SQUELCHING ANY BNDRY LYR COOLING.
PEAK GUSTS XPCD IN 15-18Z TIME FRAME COINCIDENT W/MAXIMIZED
MOMENTUM XFER AFT RAPID MID MORNING MIXOUT. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS
AS OF 09Z...MAY NEED TO BEST PRIOR TAF FCST WINDS A BIT AGAIN ESP
AT KFWA AS CORE OF LLJ PERSISTS OVERHEAD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
405 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
335 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
...UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT
TERM IS CLOUDS/PRECIP FIRST 24 HOURS. IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
COOLING TOPS OVER ARKLATEX REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET OVER LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
DECENT REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS AREA AS WELL...BUT DUE TO DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE RADAR RETURN IS VIRGA
WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT BEST OVERLAY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY AND THIS IS WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD RESIDE.
WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 750 MB WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AS WELL AS REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF RUNS IMPLY ROBUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL PRECIP FOR SOME RAIN TO POSSIBLY GET THROUGH THE DRY LOW
LEVELS TO THE SURFACE. THUS WILL ACCEPT THE 20/30 POPS FROM GFS MOS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND MENTION SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND GENERALLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WOULD IMPLY DIURNAL WARMING WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUS TODAY
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND HAVE WENT NEAR GFS MOS IN ONLY SHOWING 10-15
DEGREE RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS. MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED
IN SE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO LOWER 40S...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW A MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY.
TONIGHT 300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ASCENT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOISTURE THINNING OUT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS...BUT GIVEN REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM HIGH RES AND LOCAL
WRF MODELS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST KEEPING A LOW POP IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS PER GFS MOS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE W/NW WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS COULD ALLOW SOME BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ALSO BESOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...THUS WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICER DAY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEFINITE COOL DOWN LOOKS ON
TAP FOR THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE DELTA EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO EXPECT SOME
PRETTY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -4 TO -6C
WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT
...BUT EXPECT LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS H925 TEMPS RANGE
FROM 0 TO -2C. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARMER H925/H850 TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS/TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND ALSO BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS./15/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ONLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT
TIMES...BUT GIVEN DRY LOWER LEVELS EXPECT THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. /AEG/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 63 47 73 44 / 13 20 4 8
MERIDIAN 66 45 73 42 / 10 21 5 7
VICKSBURG 65 47 73 43 / 17 19 4 7
HATTIESBURG 72 49 75 46 / 4 11 8 9
NATCHEZ 68 47 73 46 / 10 13 4 7
GREENVILLE 60 45 68 43 / 26 25 3 6
GREENWOOD 60 44 69 42 / 20 26 4 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AEG/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
315 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND
KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE 04 UTC RAP WHICH HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED
TO THE 05-06 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
UPDATED TO ADD ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS AND A FEW SURFACE REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN AT WATFORD
CITY AND MINOT AND LIGHT SNOW FROM TIOGA. PRECIP SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE AND NO ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED. ALSO FURTHER
INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AREA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ND AT 00Z. GUSTY WINDS WERE
CONTINUING ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF STATE WHERE STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD WINDS
WILL PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT.
RADAR SHOWED SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR EASTERN CWA
WHICH IS COVERED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
LATE EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO SW
CWA AND LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ND PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
MODELS SHOW QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH NORTHEAST ND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP
CLOUDS PERSIST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION DWINDLING IN THE WEST AND
THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST IS MARGINAL RIGHT
NOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SOME POTENTIAL OF
ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GET SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SEEN IN CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WHICH
REPRESENTS THE MAIN LOW/MID LEVEL COLD POCKET/BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS
WILL ENTER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. COLDER ON SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40F FAR SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A BLAST
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR SNOW CHANCES AND TIMING.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM WITH THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL GEM LOOKS TO BRING THE COLDEST AIR
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLDER AIR OVER
THE AREA LONGEST. THIS RESULTS IN VARYING SOLUTIONS OF SNOWFALL OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BUT THE
DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN A MODEL BLEND WITH
PERSISTENCE IS GREATER THAN AVERAGE. HAVE THEREFORE RAISED POPS OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR MODELS TO CHANGE BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SWATH
OF A COUPLE INCHES COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
TAPERING QUICKLY AS YOU MOVE NORTHEAST.
AFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE STRAYED FROM THE
DEFAULT MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. BLENDED SOLUTION USUALLY TENDS TO NOT CAPTURE THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR WITH THESE ARCTIC SURGES...SO LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AN ACTIVE
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A QUICK WARM-UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DOWN...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. WEATHER DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD APPEARS
RATHER QUIET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1050 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SO FAR...ONLY SCT MIXED PCPN HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER NC WI...AS WAS
EXPECTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. OVERALL...NOT MUCH ORGANIZATION
SEEN ON THE AREA RADAR MOSAIC...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 22Z HRRR SHOWS SCT PCPN OVER SE MN/W WI
BLOSSOMING AS IT PIVOTS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DUE TO
STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/W TROF...WAA AND THE
LFQ OF THE UPPER JET. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO CONCERNED THAT PCPN-TYPE MAY END UP BEING MAINLY SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN WI...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WET BULB TEMPS ARE HOVERING AT
OR A LITTLE BLO FREEZING. CROSSHAIRS SIGNATURES (MAX OMEGA
COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE) SHOWING UP ON TIMESECTIONS
OVER THE FAR NORTH...SO A FEW HOURS OF MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP ACCUMS A LITTLE BIT THERE...BUT PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY SINCE ITS OCCURRING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SEVERAL ISSUES TO DEAL WITH AS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. FIRST ISSUE WILL BE DEALING WITH A BAND OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION (WAA) PRECIP PUSHING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS
SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN...HOWEVER EVAPORATIVE COOLER SHOULD COOL THE
COLUMN ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH. HAD
REPORTS OF SPRINKLES...FLURRIES...AND EVEN SLEET WITH THE PRECIP
TO OUR WEST. SO WITHOUT MAKING IT TOO COMPLICATED IN THE
GRIDS...WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WI...WITH RAIN OVER FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE.
ONCE THE WAA PRECIP PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROF WILL SPREAD MORE PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA. BEST AREA OF FORCING WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND
UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SURFACE LOW THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER JET. WILL CARRY LIKELY
POPS NORTH AND HIGH-END CHANCE POPS SOUTH. OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
MIXING WITH SLEET (OR SNOW) SOUTH OF A WAUSAU TO MARINETTE LINE...
MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE NORTH...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE
MORE OF A CONCERN. CRITICAL RAIN/SNOW THICKNESSES HOVER AROUND THE
MI/WI BORDER MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SO EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF RHI...WITH MORE SNOW CLOSER TO THE BORDER. MODELS SHOW UP
TO 0.3 INCHES OF QPF THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SO IF IT IS ALL
SNOW COULD GET UP TO 3 INCHES...HOWEVER EXPECT SOME MIXING TO
OCCUR SO WILL HOLD ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 2 INCHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP LATE TONIGHT.
CYCLONIC ALOFT KICKS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. PRECIP
SHOULD SHUT OFF FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTH WHERE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND LINGER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...BUT DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECREASING CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI. SATURDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY AS 925MB WINDS OF 30-40 WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. MIXING TO AROUND 3000FT SHOULD ALLOW GUSTS TO
REACH BETWEEN 25-35 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. COLD
AIR ADVECTION NOT VERY STRONG DURING THE DAY...AND WITH
WEST/DOWNSLOPING WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN TODAY.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES TO THE FAR NORTH. THE 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT WILL LINGER
INTO MONDAY. SOME QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM LARGE SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH. THINK
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OR END MONDAY BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. VERY COLD AIR AT 850MB (-16C TO -19C) EXPECTED TO PLUNGE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT STEADY OR FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE DEPICTED FALLING TEMPERATURES
IN THE GRIDS. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW DUE
TO MOISTURE CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
STEADY PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/SAT. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AUW TO MNM...A MIX
OF RAIN...SNOW AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND
MAINLY SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW OVER NORTHERN WI. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. LLWS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...BUT
GUSTY WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST FRI NOV 8 2013
SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 925MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 KTS
BETWEEN 03-12Z SATURDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS DEGREE OF MIXING WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION. WITH IMPRESSIVE WINDS ALOFT...ONLY MINIMAL
MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN GALE FORCE GUSTS...SO WILL UPGRADE THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO A GALE WARNING FROM 00-12Z
SATURDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z...BUT WINDS
ALOFT DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SO THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS FREQUENT.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
SHORT TERM.....BERSCH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........BERSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
548 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
338 AM CST
MULTIPLE ISSUES FOR THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE...BUT MAINLY
FOCUSING ON TEMPERATURES AND PCPN TRENDS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG...GUSTY WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WHILE SHIFTING
FROM SLY TO SWLY. EXPECT THAT THE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT
ISSUANCE TIME WILL SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WESTERLY...BUT WILL REMAIN RATHER BRISK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SUNSHINE
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT
AND WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF AS WELL AS DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER THE
REGION...EXPECT THAT TEMPS SHOULD RADIATE DOWN INTO THE LOWER
30S...WITH A FEW ISOLD SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. UNDER
BROAD NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT LOWER
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S...THOUGH SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
BY MONDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE IMPACTS OF A COLD
FRONT DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UNSEASONABLE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG
THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD...BUT HAVE SETTLED ON A SLOWER SOLUTION AS ADVERTISED BY
THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM WITH THE GFS REMAINING A FAST OUTLIER. THIS WOULD
PUSH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE IL/WI BORDER MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL HAVE A
STRONG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LIKELY SEE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE DURG
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE THE MAX TEMP AT AROUND NOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE SHOULD BE
SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...SO SOME LIGHT PCPN IS
POSSIBLE...STARTING OUT AS SOME LIGHT SHRA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...
AND THEN CHANGING OVER THE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SOME SNOW SHOWERS BY
MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN WHEN THE PCPN CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW MONDAY EVENING...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE THROUGH THE
MISSOURI VALLEY...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AND AN EVEN DRIER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. FOR TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S...WITH SOME OF
THE LOW-LYING...SHELTERED AREAS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. THE ONLY
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE AN ADJUSTMENT
TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS WELL AS
ADJUSTING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH ERN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS...WHICH WOULD THEN BRING A MORE NWLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE THERMAL PROFILES WILL STILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO
-14C OVER THE WARM LAKE WATERS WHICH ARE STILL AROUND 50F...THE MORE
NWLY FETCH WILL FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO NWRN INDIANA AND WRN
MICHIGAN...WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT ON THE LOCAL CWA BEING FOR
PORTER COUNTY...THOUGH ALL OF FAR NWRN INDIANA COULD SEE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY. HAVE HAD SOME CONCERN THAT THE MODELS WERE WAY TOO WARM
AND NOT HANDLING THE MAX TEMPS VERY WELL FOR TUESDAY. AND THIS IS
STILL THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THAT THE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE IT IS STILL OVER
NRN CANADA ARE SUB-ZERO...HAVE OPTED TO TREND LOWER THAN EVEN THE
COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A LITTLE AND STILL HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT MAX
TEMPS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ARE STILL TOO HIGH. BUT FOR NOW...GIVEN
THE FORECAST 850MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C OVER THE AREA...HAVE GONE
WITH HIGHS OF 33-34F SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHICAGO TO PONTIAC...WITH
30-32F HIGHS TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT
MORE OF THE CWA MAY NOT SEE TEMPS RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IF
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TAKES A MORE ELY TRACK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL...WITH A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. BY FRIDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
STILL ONLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT COLD FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TEENS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE LAKEFRONT AND
URBANIZED COOK COUNTY. BUT EVEN THE WARMER AREAS WILL STILL DROP
INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. ALSO...AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...SEE LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KREIN
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* SOUTHWEST WINDS ARND 15-19KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 21-25KT THRU 16Z
THEN VEERING WEST TO 18-21KT AND GUSTS NEARING 28-32KT.
* LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 2KFT AGL TO 55KT FROM THE S TO SW THRU
14Z THEN WINDS ALOFT DECREASE.
* WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHWEST BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS
SLOWLY DECREASING TO ARND 16-18KT.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST...WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING. WSR-88D KLOT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE WINDS ALOFT AT 2KFT AGL AROUND 50KT...HOWEVER THE TREND
HAS BEEN A STEADY DECLINE IN THE FREQUENCY. WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION OF LLVL WS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS. WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING...ANY HEATING WILL INCREASE THE MIXING AND ALLOW THE
CURRENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KT TO INCREASE TO 25-30KT BY MIDDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING THAT GUSTS COULD GO EVEN HIGHER BY
EARLY THIS AFTN TO AROUND 30-33KT...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FELT MORE
CONFIDENT STICKING WITH GUSTS JUST UNDER 30KT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL FLOAT OVERHEAD TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARND 4-5KFT AGL
DEVELOPING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN WESTERLY...THEN
EVENTUALLY LATER TONIGHT WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY
BY SUNSET.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLVL WS ENDING BY 14Z.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE TIMING OF WINDS TURNING W TO NW.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z MONDAY-12Z SATURDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY...CHC OF RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH A CHC FOR A MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
TUESDAY...CHC FOR MVFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
226 AM CST
MARINE CONCERNS/HAZARDS...
SPORADIC GALES CONTINUE FOR THE OPEN WATERS...WILL CONTINUE THE
GALE WARNING THIS MORNING THROUGH MID-MORNING. PERHAPS A FEW GALES
TO 40 KT MAY OCCUR FOR THE OPEN WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GALES EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TO 20-25KT GUSTS BY DAYBREAK.
GALES BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE OPEN WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GALES LOOK LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUE/WED...SO A VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP.
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS MORNING...TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EAST INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TONIGHT...REACHING THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY SUNDAY.
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO
NORTHTWEST GALES FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF THE LAKE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH A LULL IN THE GALES. HOWEVER WITH THE PATTERN
REMAINING VERY PROGRESSIVE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING TO
WEST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS GALES WILL NOT RETURN
UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MON/TUE A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
LAKE WITH A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING...ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
AND LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL CANADA
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL SETUP A LONG DURATION NORTH
FETCH FOR LAKE MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A LONG DURATION OF
GALES. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF GALES EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND
NORTH FETCH...WAVES WILL LIKELY BE LARGE FOR THE SOUTNERN HALF OF
THE LAKE. AT THIS TIME GUIDANCE INDICATES WAVES FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF TO BE 7 TO 10 FT...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON WIND DIRECTION THESE
WAVES COULD BE MUCH LARGER.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...3 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM
SATURDAY TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 AM
SUNDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 3 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
525 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
Much of the Midwest between systems this morning as high pressure
slides to the east and an low pushes across the great lakes. Cold
front expected to pass through ILX today, bringing slightly cooler
air, but dry. Fairly progressive pattern in fast flow across the
CONUS today will continue through much of the forecast pd. Much
more amplified flow anticipated with next big forecast issue...a
low passing through southern Canada and bringing a front as well
Monday/Mon night. Within the more amplified flow, the Arctic air
opens up and pushes into the Midwest with much colder temperatures
with that front. Models starting to dig a trof in the SW going
into next weekend. Looks like a hint at a pattern change to a
possible split flow and not too stable just yet in the extended.
Forecast at this point remains conservative overall with very few
changes.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Breezy conditions today as approaching front compressing some
isobars across Central Illinois. Some warming anticipated to push
temps into the upper 50s/lower 60s before the cooler air with the
weak cold front this afternoon. Pretty good temp drop anticipated
tonight as skies clear out under the ridge and radiational cooling
is maximized. Tomorrows highs about 10 degrees below todays.
Tomorrow nights lows a bit warmer, though concerned that the
guidance is warming too much as the southerly component to the
winds does not kick in until early morning, and the cloud cover is
lacking particularly in the east. May need an adjustment,
depending on the speed of the cloud cover increase ahead of the
next front.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Next front a result of a deeper trof digging in over the region as
much cooler air taps into the Arctic airmass to the north. Precip
will be short lived...but persisting behind the front resulting in
a switch over to a mixed precip. Models have been speeding up a
bit with the progression of this particular system. 00z NAM and
GFS falling in line as well, even pulling ahead of the timing of
the ECMWF. Differences, however, show up with available moisture
for this system...and the NAM is producing far less RH in the
boundary layer until the Ohio River Valley. Tuesdays high
temperatures confined to the 30s behind the front. Remainder of
the 7 days dry and temperatures slowly recovering from the cold
blast, albeit slowly climbing to the upper 40s/lower 50s by the
end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 525 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites next 24hrs.
Expecting skies to be clear through the period with maybe a little
bit of cirrus, but not enough to mention. Only issue is winds. Low
level wind shear continues this morning with 50kts at 2kft so will
keep WS mentioned in the TAFs until surface winds pick up in a
couple of hours. Then winds will be southwest and gusting to just
under 24kts. The dry cold front will sweep through this afternoon
with winds remaining gusty during the afternoon. Then at 00z,
expecting winds to decrease quickly and be at 11kts or less. CMI
will see the front come through and winds decrease at the same
time. Then expecting clear skies and west-northwest winds during
the evening and overnight at all sites.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
348 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2013
Much of the Midwest between systems this morning as high pressure
slides to the east and an low pushes across the great lakes. Cold
front expected to pass through ILX today, bringing slightly cooler
air, but dry. Fairly progressive pattern in fast flow across the
CONUS today will continue through much of the forecast pd. Much
more amplified flow anticipated with next big forecast issue...a
low passing through southern Canada and bringing a front as well
Monday/Mon night. Within the more amplified flow, the Arctic air
opens up and pushes into the Midwest with much colder temperatures
with that front. Models starting to dig a trof in the SW going
into next weekend. Looks like a hint at a pattern change to a
possible split flow and not too stable just yet in the extended.
Forecast at this point remains conservative overall with very few
changes.
SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Breezy conditions today as approaching front compressing some
isobars across Central Illinois. Some warming anticipated to push
temps into the upper 50s/lower 60s before the cooler air with the
weak cold front this afternoon. Pretty good temp drop anticipated
tonight as skies clear out under the ridge and radiational cooling
is maximized. Tomorrows highs about 10 degrees below todays.
Tomorrow nights lows a bit warmer, though concerned that the
guidance is warming too much as the southerly component to the
winds does not kick in until early morning, and the cloud cover is
lacking particularly in the east. May need an adjustment,
depending on the speed of the cloud cover increase ahead of the
next front.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Next front a result of a deeper trof digging in over the region as
much cooler air taps into the Arctic airmass to the north. Precip
will be short lived...but persisting behind the front resulting in
a switch over to a mixed precip. Models have been speeding up a
bit with the progression of this particular system. 00z NAM and
GFS falling in line as well, even pulling ahead of the timing of
the ECMWF. Differences, however, show up with available moisture
for this system...and the NAM is producing far less RH in the
boundary layer until the Ohio River Valley. Tuesdays high
temperatures confined to the 30s behind the front. Remainder of
the 7 days dry and temperatures slowly recovering from the cold
blast, albeit slowly climbing to the upper 40s/lower 50s by the
end of the week.
HJS
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2013
Strong compact vort max moving across upper Mississippi Valley
tonight continues to produce gusty south winds and a strong low-
level jet above the boundary layer. KILX VWP indicating 51 kts at
1300ft AGL. Latest RUC suggests LLJ may intensify a bit more
before shifting east and weakening by sunrise. Will retain LLWS
wording on ongoing TAFs. The combination of clouds in place and
the gusty winds has prevented much of a nocturnal inversion from
developing. As the night progresses, upstream observations and IR
imagery suggest that some partial clearing is likely and may be
sufficient enough to reduce sfc winds somewhat sooner than aloft,
Will include this trend in the new set of terminals.
Latest model suite is a bit drier than previous run with respect to
mid-level moisture and will reduce cloud coverage forecast to SCT
for Saturday and SKC Saturday evening. A weak cold front trailing the
system moving across the Great lakes should produce a wind shift
from SW to NW during the later part of the day with a drop off in
speed during the evening.
Barker
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
SQUEEZE BTWN CLIPPER SYS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES AND
STG RIDGING CNTRD OVR THE SERN US YIELDING AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY GOING FWD AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE LAKES. PEAK SFC GUSTS LOOK TO
OCCUR IN 15-18Z WINDOW TIMED W/STG MOMENTUM XFER AND GEOSTROPHIC FLW
W/00Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKING A BIT WEAK. SHRT TERM RUC PROGS
WOULD INDICATE 40KT GUSTS FOR A TIME LT MORNING ACRS NW OH WITHIN
RETREATING LLJ CORE AND QUITE PSBL ESP IF SIG INSOLATION DVLPS.
OTRWS SHALLOW CDFNTL BNDRY TO SHIFT THROUGH CWA LT THIS AFTN/EVE
W/MOD FOLLOWING CAA SURGE ESP LT TONIGHT AS LL FLW VEERS MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY NWRLY. MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM COMPARED
TO 2M PROGS AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FM PREV FCST...ESP SW
THIRD AWAY FM ANY LK CLD INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE NAM...WITH GFS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE NAM OVER SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...
THE GFS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A
NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH. THE SRF/ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUPPORT A
MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST FETCH WITH PARCELS TRAVELLING OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. CONCERN FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS DELTA T VALUES REFLECT EXTREME
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT TEMPERATURES
COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR FCST THIS PD. FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET MIGRATING
THROUGH THE WRN LAKES. PEAK GUSTS STILL XPCD IN 15-18Z TIME FRAME
COINCIDENT W/MAXIMIZED MOMENTUM XFER AFT RAPID MID MORNING MIXOUT.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AS OF 11Z...BUMPED TAF FCST WINDS A BIT
AGAIN AT KFWA AS CORE OF LLJ PERSISTS OVERHEAD.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
940 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED HIGHS FOR TODAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN ZONES
AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS IS ON SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHEAST OF MAINE LATER SUNDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE RESULTING WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH
OF HOULTON AND THE KATAHDIN REGION. HOWEVER...IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW. WITH INSTABILITY
ALOFT...GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDED SNOW
IN NE MAINE...SIGNS ARE POINTING TO INCREASING SNOWFALL FORECASTS
TOWARDS 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE. AS ALWAYS WITH EARLY SEASON
SNOWS...ELEVATION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
618 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY/POP/TEMP GRIDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT REST OF FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
925 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CARRINGTON HAD A GUST TO 51 MPH...WITH WIND 30 MPH SUSTAINED AT
MINOT AND RUGBY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING TO REST OF TEXT PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LESS BREAKS
NORTH. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP13 925MB-H85 RH FIELD...THE
TREND IS FOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
AND ERODING FROM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCUR WITH THIS THOUGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND VERY SLOWLY PERMEATES TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MONITORED AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MET
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE INITIATED. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPAND
IT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WILL METWATCH THEN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
MINOR UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LESS BREAKS
NORTH. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP13 925MB-H85 RH FIELD...THE
TREND IS FOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
AND ERODING FROM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCUR WITH THIS THOUGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND VERY SLOWLY PERMEATES TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MONITORED AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MET
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE INITIATED. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPAND
IT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WILL METWATCH THEN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
MINOR UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
628 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...AND UP TO 850MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35
KNOTS...AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS (WEAKER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA). WITH THE MODELS INDICATING DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 26 KNOTS
SUSTAINED). CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING (DELAYED THE
CLEARING UNTIL TONIGHT). TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM
TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE IS ENTERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE UP TO AN INCH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN CAA AND
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR THE SKY. ASSUMING THAT THE SKY DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS (FOLLOWING COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED
BETTER THE PAST WEEK).
ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW-
MID 40S (ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY). STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST COULD BE 5F-8F TOO COOL. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE...AND WE HAVE LOWER END POPS
HERE. ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FROPA GIVEN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED (MODELS ONLY SHOWING WINDS
ALOFT OF 25-30 KNOTS...SO IF THAT IS TRUE THIS WOULD BE SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE VALUES ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY -12C TO
-18C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOLLOWED THE COLDER GUIDANCE CONSIDERING MODEL PERFORMANCE
FOR THIS PAST WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TRANSITORY MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...LIMITED SOMEWHAT THOUGH BY
THE VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH
FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARY AMONG MODELS...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY IMPULSE MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TRANSITION WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR TO IFR TO
LIFR. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OR
EVEN MORE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
WITHIN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH FLURRIES TO THE WEST. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DECREASING THIS
EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
555 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS...WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR...WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AT KBIS...KMOT AND KJMS. GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KDIK AND KISN.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...RETURNING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP IN MONDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH LOWS INTO THE 30S TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
SQUEEZE BTWN CLIPPER SYS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES AND
STG RIDGING CNTRD OVR THE SERN US YIELDING AN INCREASINGLY BREEZY
DAY GOING FWD AS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED RISE/FALL COUPLET ACRS THE UPR
MIDWEST PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE LAKES. PEAK SFC GUSTS LOOK TO
OCCUR IN 15-18Z WINDOW TIMED W/STG MOMENTUM XFER AND GEOSTROPHIC FLW
W/00Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE LOOKING A BIT WEAK. SHRT TERM RUC PROGS
WOULD INDICATE 40KT GUSTS FOR A TIME LT MORNING ACRS NW OH WITHIN
RETREATING LLJ CORE AND QUITE PSBL ESP IF SIG INSOLATION DVLPS.
OTRWS SHALLOW CDFNTL BNDRY TO SHIFT THROUGH CWA LT THIS AFTN/EVE
W/MOD FOLLOWING CAA SURGE ESP LT TONIGHT AS LL FLW VEERS MORE
SUBSTANTIALLY NWRLY. MOS ADJUSTED GUIDANCE LOOKS A BIT WARM COMPARED
TO 2M PROGS AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FM PREV FCST...ESP SW
THIRD AWAY FM ANY LK CLD INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN
THE NAM...WITH GFS GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY OVER 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE NAM OVER SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...
THE GFS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW INITIALLY WITH A
NORTH TO NORTH/NORTHEAST FETCH. THE SRF/ECMWF AND NAM ALL SUPPORT A
MORE NORTH/NORTHWEST FETCH WITH PARCELS TRAVELLING OVER MUCH OF THE
LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MODELS ALSO ARE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND
INCREASING INVERSION HEIGHTS. CONCERN FOR HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT AS DELTA T VALUES REFLECT EXTREME
INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...ENDING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. KEPT TEMPERATURES
COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES AND APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS SCENARIO VERY WELL. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
AS OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SFC LOW WILL PASS BY WELL TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN
IOWA WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS/STRATOCU IN ITS WAKE. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH TAF SITES...BUT COULD HAVE A BRIEF
IMPACT AT KSBN GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE CLOUD SHIELD. STRONG LL WIND
FIELD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WAS BEING MIXED DOWN WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PASSES
WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BRIEFLY BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS
BUT WILL STILL BE A BUMPY RIDE.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND ALLOW SOME CLEARING TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE LOW
TO MID 20S NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST.
OTHERWISE...THE FOCUS IS ON SUNDAY`S SYSTEM. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SOUTHEAST OF MAINE LATER SUNDAY WHILE
A SURFACE LOW IN QUEBEC FILLS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND
TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY AND ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER NORTH TO THE SJV. WHILE MANY AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR WILL GET
A QUICK INCH OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
RESULTING WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY RAIN SOUTH OF HOULTON AND THE KATAHDIN REGION. IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY...CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE DAY. WITH
INSTABILITY ALOFT...GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDED SNOW IN NE MAINE...HAVE INCREASED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TOWARDS
2 TO 4 INCHES IN NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AS ALWAYS WITH EARLY SEASON
SNOWS...ELEVATION WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
ABOVE 1000 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS AFFECTING POTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES
EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDED NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START...WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S NORTH AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR START THIS EVENING...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS
MOST AREAS. ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY
START AS SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN LEVEL OFF OR SLOWLY
RISE AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR FA SUN INTO SUN EVE... PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES PROGGED
OVR SWRN QUEBEC AT 12Z SUN W/ AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT XTNDG SEWRD
ACROSS NWRN-SERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS LOW IS FCST TO THEN MV EWRD
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC ON SUN W/ MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTING SOME
SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW DVLPMNT VCNTY OF SERN MAINE/NERN BAY OF
FUNDY BY SUN EVE. EXPECT A SWATH OF PRECIP N AND E OF THE SFC OCLN
TO AFFECT THE AREA ON SUN W/ LIKELY TO CAT POPS SPREADING ENEWRD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUN AM THEN EXITING THE FA LATE SUN/SUN
EVE. BNDRY LAYER TEMPS/CRITICAL THICKNESS STILL SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN DOWNEAST/A MX OF RAIN/SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. QPF
FCSTS STILL SUPPORT .2-.3 INCHES OF LIQUID W/ SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW PSBL N AND W SPCLY HYR TERRAIN. PRECIP SHUTS OFF QUICKLY
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC OCNL FROM SW-NE LATE SUN W/ A RIDGE
OF SFC HIGH PRES THEN EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BUILD OVR THE FA SUN NGT
INTO MON. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON SUN BUT
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF CLDS TO LINGER SUN NGT LIKELY KEEPING TEMPS
FROM FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAK WAA ON MON AHEAD OF THE NXT
SYSTEM SUGGESTS TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT TO NR SEASONAL NORMS...
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION MON EVE WILL SHIFT E AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW... THIS FRONT IS PROGGED
TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE W/ COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIR TO
FOLLOW FOR TUE. THIS PTRN WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THRU MID WEEK THE
RETURN FLOW SUGGESTS MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PTRN APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PD HOWEVER AS ALL
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT ANY COASTAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN WELL S AND E OF THE AREA. POPULATED THE LONG TERM GRIDS W/
THE XTND SUPER BLEND CONSENSUS W/ NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CIGS AND SCT -SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CIGS KBGR/KBHB. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD ALL GO TO VFR BY LATER THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
START THINGS THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR AFT 06Z
SUN MRNG IN CIGS AND DEVELOPING -SN.
SHORT TERM: TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AVIATION
TERMINALS SUNDAY-WED... THE FIRST INVOLVES A CANADIAN CLIPPER AND
AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWING ACROSS THE FA ON SUN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A PD OF WDSPRD MVFR/IFR W/ RAIN
S/A MX OF RAIN AND SNOW CENTRAL AND MAINLY WET SNOW N. THIS SYSTEM
EXITS SUN NGT W/ A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FOR MON THEN A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA MON NGT/ERLY TUE.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING A PD OF MVFR/IFR
ACROSS THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THESE 2 SYSTEMS...MAINLY VFR CONDS
ARE EXPECTED THO ALWAYS THE THREAT OF SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE CAA NW
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NRN TAF SITES...
&&
.MARINE...
UPDATE...
WILL MAINTAIN END TIME FOR THE SCA AT 3PM WITH WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH. EXPECT ISSUANCE OF A NEW SCA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO MON AS LOW PRES PASSES
N OF THE WATERS AND DRAGS AN ATTENDANT OCLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
411 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOOKING AT WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO WHILE A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1000MB LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING COOLER
850MB TEMPS...FALLING FROM CURRENT VALUES OF -3 TO -5C (NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST LAKE SUPERIOR RESPECTIVELY) ON RAP ANALYSIS TO
-7.5C BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS COLDER AIR...COMBINED WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING AND AID THE PRECIPITATION. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS (AT LEAST BASED OFF WEBCAMS) ARE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
COLDER AIR SLIDING EAST ALONG THE MI/WI BORDER. THIS PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SWEEPS SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTHWEST. ALONG AND SHORTLY
AFTER THIS MOVES THROUGH IS WHEN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH AND THEN LAKE ENHANCEMENT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WON/T BE TOO LARGE OF A
FACTOR...SINCE 850MB TEMPS DO WARM SLIGHTLY (TO -4C) BEFORE FALLING
TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. EVEN WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY IN THE
5-7KFT...THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES OF 11-14 SHOW UP IN THE LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 100-150J/KG. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME
FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL ACTUALLY BE AROUND THE TIME THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE DEPARTING LATE TONIGHT. EVEN WITH THE LIMITING
FACTOR OF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT...THERE SHOULD BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF STRONGER UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS
OVER NORTHWESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER THE EAST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PARAMETER
HIGHLIGHTS THIS IDEA FAIRLY WELL IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS
FOR QPF...HAVE MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST BETWEEN 0.1-0.4INCH WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS. FARTHER EAST...ONLY HAVE A
0.1-0.2IN OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS OVER THE EAST
DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
SINCE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ALOFT...PRECIPITATION TYPE
COMES DOWN TO THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOOKING AT LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES IN SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS...THINK THERE
WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN SNOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER THE
KEWEENAW/EAST IN THE EVENING. BUT AS THE DIURNAL COOLING AND
COLDER AIR DROPPING IN TONIGHT...EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IN
MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS SHOULD STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE...AROUND 10-1 THROUGH THE NIGHT SINCE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE CLOUD LAYER STAYING BELOW THE DGZ THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THUS...HAVE A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST EXCEPT THE
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR TWIN LAKES WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL.
OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE HURON MOUNTAINS...COULD SEE AMOUNTS
IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR BARAGA
COUNTY DUE TO THE LIMITED POPULATION IMPACT (MOST OF THE POPULATION
WILL SEE UNDER 2 INCHES). DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW...AS MODELS ARE SHOWING WETBULB0 VALUES
FALLING BELOW 700FT BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN THE MID 30S.
SINCE THERE IS LITTLE SNOW ON THE GROUND ON WEBCAMS...WONDERING HOW
MUCH ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. DID GO WITH 1-1.5IN ALONG THE HIGHEST
ELEVATION LOCATIONS...WHICH IS A GOOD IN BETWEEN VALUE BASED ON THE
BORDERLINE TEMPERATURES.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN SLIDING OVER THE FAR WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND PROCEED TO CROSS THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY. THIS INCREASE IN DRIER AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND BACKING WINDS
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THINK THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK
DIMINISHING TREND DUE TO THE MARGINAL DELTA-T VALUES FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT...SO ONCE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS OUT THE SHOWERS SHOULD
FALL APART AND HAVE SHOWN THAT IDEA WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE
DAY. FORESEE SOME PEAKS OF SUN OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO
STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WEST AND AROUND 40
EAST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A SHARP CHANGE TO WINTER WEATHER WILL BE IN THE OFFERING EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDEST AIRMASS BY FAR OF THE
SEASON TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
DEVELOPING IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. IN ADDITION...WINDY N-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.
AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE PATTERN SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAY BE ABOUT 3 HR
FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY FAST
MOVING...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UP TO 0.10 INCH OF PCPN WILL FALL
WITH THE FRONT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -4C...EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO
FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.P. WITH WESTERN PARTS PERHAPS SEEING TWO INCHES
WITH SOME FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW. THEN...STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS
THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY WILL ALLOW
850MB TEMPS TO DROP TO -16C. THIS WILL YIELD GREAT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE OF OVER 9C/KM AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS AROUND 3 KM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE WOULD SUGGEST THAT LAKE EFFECT MAY BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EAST OF MARQUETTE WHERE
THE FETCH WILL BE THE LONGEST OWING TO N-NW PBL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE
INTERESTING PROBLEM WITH THIS LES EVENT WILL BE THE EXTRAORDINARY
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1047MB (OR OVER +3 STANDARD DEVIATION FROM THE
MEAN) BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. NOT
ONLY WILL THIS LEAD TO QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT IT WILL ALSO
USHER IN DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE. IN
ESSENCE...THIS EVENT WILL BE MORE LIKE A PURE LES EVENT IN JANUARY
VS THE NORMAL LAKE ENHANCED EVENTS THAT WE NORMALLY SEE IN NOVEMBER.
WILL PROBABLY SEE VERY DISTINCT LES BANDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE BANDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW...HOWEVER THE CONCERN IS THAT THESE
BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT WITH THE PBL WINDS SHIFTING FROM
AROUND 320 DEG TO 345 DEG ON MONDAY...THEN BACK TO 330 OR 320 DEG
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH. IN ADDITION...IT
IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EFFECT THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
WILL HAVE ON THE LES. THE NAM AND LOCAL WRF-ARW SUGGEST THAT THIS
DRYING WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OVER THE WEST...WHICH MAY BE
ACCURATE GIVEN THE LESSENED EFFECTIVE OVER WATER FETCH DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS. THESE SAME MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A PRIMARY BAND WITH A
LAKE NIPIGON INFLUENCE INTO ALGER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN/MONDAY NIGHT.
OVERALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COMPARED TO ALL
GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MONDAY WILL END
UP BEING A FAIRLY WINDY AND SNOWY DAY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL NECESSARILY FALL DUE TO THE REASONS GIVEN ABOVE...BUT IT
SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MODERATE SNOWFALL IN ALGER/NRN
SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE COUNTIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THROWING IN THE
STRONG WINDS...WE MAY HAVE OUR FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
STORM OF 2013/2014 FOR THESE AREAS. THOUGHT ABOUT ISSUING A WINTER
STORM WATCH...BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF SNOW
AMOUNTS. AS FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WEST INTO KEWEENAW...STILL PLENTY
OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE ALSO CLOSER TO
THE HIGH. WITH THE STRONG WINDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE KEWEENAW
WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW INCHES DESPITE FAVORABLE N-NW
WINDS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...AM THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT
SNOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT NECESSARILY ANYTHING HEAVY
DUE TO THE LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND MORE DRY AIR.
LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH A WARMING TREND TO NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY DRY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE
FRI AFTN/FRI NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THIS
EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE WEST AS
A SURFACE TROUGH BRINGS INCREASING COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS. THINK
VISIBILITIES WILL APPROACH IFR VALUES WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AT
KIWD/KCMX (ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT
KCMX). WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS...KSAW IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT MVFR. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL LEAD
TO A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2013
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR HAS LED TO WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY GALES TO 35KTS
OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND THE REST OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY...DIMINISHING
THE WINDS BELOW 30KTS. BUT AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 20-30KT RANGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...ANOTHER PERIOD OF OF NORTHWESTERLY GALES OF 35-40KTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN LAKE ON MONDAY. THE GALE WATCH
THAT WAS ISSUED LAST NIGHT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE. A STRONG HIGH TRAVELLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY AND DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 25KTS. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL
CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ240>242-263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LSZ248>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1035 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECASTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL THE VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT
IS LIMITING RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND THE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT
RAIN AND SPRINKLES STILL LOOK GOOD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING A
LITTLE FASTER AS SOLID ALTOSTRATUS EXITS AND IS REPLACED BY A MORE
BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MORE WARMING AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.
OTHERWISE...NEW GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A BIG COOL DOWN
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AND LGT SFC WINDS TO PREVAIL OVR THE NEXT 24
HRS. OCSNL -RA/DZ NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION N OF I-20 THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. /BK/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
..UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE EXPECTED MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN CONCERN IN SHORT
TERM IS CLOUDS/PRECIP FIRST 24 HOURS. IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS
COOLING TOPS OVER ARKLATEX REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET OVER LOWER LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. RADAR SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF
DECENT REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS AREA AS WELL...BUT DUE TO DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MUCH OF THE RADAR RETURN IS VIRGA
WITH ONLY SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED.
300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT BEST OVERLAY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
TODAY AND THIS IS WHERE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP SHOULD RESIDE.
WHILE BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ATMOSPHERE BELOW ABOUT 750 MB WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AS WELL AS REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS FROM HRRR AND HIGH RES WRF RUNS IMPLY ROBUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL PRECIP FOR SOME RAIN TO POSSIBLY GET THROUGH THE DRY LOW
LEVELS TO THE SURFACE. THUS WILL ACCEPT THE 20/30 POPS FROM GFS MOS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND MENTION SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND GENERALLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WOULD IMPLY DIURNAL WARMING WILL NOT BE TREMENDOUS TODAY
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND HAVE WENT NEAR GFS MOS IN ONLY SHOWING 10-15
DEGREE RISE FROM CURRENT READINGS. MORE OF A DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED
IN SE AREAS WHERE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO LOWER 40S...AND SOME
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW A MORE ROBUST TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY.
TONIGHT 300/305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE MODEL FORECASTS SHOW AXIS OF
MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ASCENT
WILL BE WEAKENING AND MOISTURE THINNING OUT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS...BUT GIVEN REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS FROM HIGH RES AND LOCAL
WRF MODELS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST KEEPING A LOW POP IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS PER GFS MOS. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE/CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE W/NW WHICH COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS COULD ALLOW SOME BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ALSO BESOME
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AS INITIAL SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...THUS WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST
MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICER DAY WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 70S. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A DEFINITE COOL DOWN LOOKS ON
TAP FOR THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ARKLAMISS ON MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE DELTA EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE MAINLY DRY
AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT THERE COULD BE A
FEW LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SO EXPECT SOME
PRETTY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF H925 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -4 TO -6C
WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY WARMER. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT
..BUT EXPECT LOWS TO STILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. A COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY AS H925 TEMPS RANGE
FROM 0 TO -2C. HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND WARMER H925/H850 TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
POPS/TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT DID CUT BELOW GUIDANCE
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND ALSO BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE USUAL COOLER LOCATIONS./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 64 47 73 44 / 13 20 4 8
MERIDIAN 67 45 73 42 / 10 21 5 7
VICKSBURG 64 47 73 43 / 17 19 4 7
HATTIESBURG 71 49 75 46 / 4 11 8 9
NATCHEZ 67 47 73 46 / 10 13 4 7
GREENVILLE 61 45 68 43 / 26 25 3 6
GREENWOOD 62 44 69 42 / 20 26 4 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CHALLENGES INCLUDE LOW END POPS THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUD/
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE.
WILL KEEP WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL 00 UTC WITH A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY
STILL NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EVENING SHIFT MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY.
FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE RAP 925 HPA RH SUGGESTING THE CLEARING LINE WILL
REACH THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 09 TO 12 UTC SUNDAY. THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPERATURES
HERE TO ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 20S. ASSSUMING SOME DEGREE OF
CLEARING TAKES PLACE ELSEWHERE...ALL OTHER AREAS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE TEENS. WEAK SNOW SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHWEST MN SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 03 UTC WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SCATTED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ITS PASSAGE. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN...BUT QPF WILL BE LIGHT AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH
IN THE DAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH IF THE SUN MAKES A PROLONGED
APPEARANCE.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES. NORTH WIND
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...BUT
STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID TEENS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A 1044 TO 1048 HPA SURFACE HIGH
DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CENTER OF
HIGH REMAINS PRIMARILY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LIMITING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WINDS WILL BECOME CALM. ASSUMING
CLEAR SKIES...THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT NOCTURNAL COOLING...BUT WITH
925 HPA TEMPERATURES STILL FROM -8 TO -12 C...TUESDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. BY FAR THE COLDEST
AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUB-
ZERO READINGS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S WITH A NOTICEABLE WARM-UP INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAJOR GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH UPPER
RIDGE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE EXTENDED
PERIOD BEGINS WEDNESDAY. WITH FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE INTO THE 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWEST WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AT SOME POINT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES POINT TOWARD A RAIN SNOW MIXTURE DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SNOW AT NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR PCPN TO THE NORTHERN AREAS LATER SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR CIGS AT KFAR SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS STREAM
DOWN VIA NORTHWEST FLOW FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FROM KTVF THROUGH KBJI FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LOSE THEIR CIGS BY 06Z TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND CORE AOA
25KTS KDVL TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE THE OTHER SITES STAY CLOSER TO 20 KTS. DECREASE TO 10
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/WJB
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
WIND ADVISORY IN GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH OBSERVED SPEEDS ARE MARGINAL.
AREAS FROM DEVILS LAKE TO COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY HAVE HOVERED
AROUND 25 TO 28 KTS SUSTAINED WITH LESSER WINDS FARTHER EAST. WILL
NOT EXPAND CURRENT HEADLINE...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL PORTIONS
OF IT EARLY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST ISSUANCE.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALSO FORMING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...BUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL MOVEMENT SINCE MORNING UPDATE.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING WEAK BAND OF LIGHT SNOW JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO NORTHWEST MN
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION...IF ANY. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WIND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM RUGBY TO CARRINGTON HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A SUSTAINED 26 KTS
(30 MPH) WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH AT CARRINGTON. EVEN FARGO HAD A
PEAK WIND TO 43 MPH AT 0830 CST. WITH THE RAP SHOWING AT LEAST 35
KTS AT 925 HPA TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND UP TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DEEPEN THAT FAR WITH CLOUD COVER...THINK
A WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN UNTIL 00 UTC TONIGHT. TRUE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET
AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BE INTERMITTENT...BUT EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE DAY. WEB CAMS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY INTO THE 2 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE DUE MORE TO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE THAN SNOW...SO ADDED FOG THROUGH 18 UTC AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH 00 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OR
DRIZZLE FREEZING ON IMPACT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...AND UP TO 850MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35
KNOTS...AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS (WEAKER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA). WITH THE MODELS INDICATING DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 26 KNOTS
SUSTAINED). CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING (DELAYED THE
CLEARING UNTIL TONIGHT). TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM
TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE IS ENTERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE UP TO AN INCH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN CAA AND
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR THE SKY. ASSUMING THAT THE SKY DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS (FOLLOWING COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED
BETTER THE PAST WEEK).
ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW-
MID 40S (ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY). STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST COULD BE 5F-8F TOO COOL. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE...AND WE HAVE LOWER END POPS
HERE. ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FROPA GIVEN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED (MODELS ONLY SHOWING WINDS
ALOFT OF 25-30 KNOTS...SO IF THAT IS TRUE THIS WOULD BE SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE VALUES ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY -12C TO
-18C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOLLOWED THE COLDER GUIDANCE CONSIDERING MODEL PERFORMANCE
FOR THIS PAST WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TRANSITORY MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...LIMITED SOMEWHAT THOUGH BY
THE VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH
FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARY AMONG MODELS...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY IMPULSE MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
VFR CIGS AT KFAR SHOULD TRANSITION TO MVFR AS LOWER CLOUDS STREAM
DOWN VIA NORTHWEST FLOW FROM DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER FROM KTVF THROUGH KBJI FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD LOSE THEIR CIGS BY 06Z TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND CORE AOA
25KTS KDVL TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON DESPITE CLOUD
COVER...WHILE THE OTHER SITES STAY CLOSER TO 20 KTS. DECREASE TO 10
KTS OR LESS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS EROSION TAKING PLACE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST CENTRAL AND JAMES
RIVE VALLEY MAINTAINING BKN/OVC CONDITIONS. WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUES WITH UPDATES TO THE SKY GRIDS AND WINDS THIS PERIOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CARRINGTON HAD A GUST TO 51 MPH...WITH WIND 30 MPH SUSTAINED AT
MINOT AND RUGBY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY AS THE
STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING TO REST OF TEXT PRODUCTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH MULTIPLE BREAKS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH LESS BREAKS
NORTH. USING A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP13 925MB-H85 RH FIELD...THE
TREND IS FOR THE OUTER EDGES OF THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING
AND ERODING FROM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
CONCUR WITH THIS THOUGHT AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND VERY SLOWLY PERMEATES TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER
THE LOW CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BRISK TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. A 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX IN SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR NOW THROUGH 21Z THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WILL BE MONITORED AS ISOLATED INSTANCES OF CRITERIA HAVE BEEN MET
NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IF THIS BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE INITIATED. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND EXPAND
IT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. WILL METWATCH THEN ADJUST IF NEED BE.
MINOR UPDATES TO WINDS AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT DATA.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
UPDATE TO ADD FLURRIES TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GIVEN
THE 10-11 UTC OBSERVATIONS. CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE RAP FOR CLOUD
COVER...THE LATEST CYCLE BEING 10 UTC. THE RAP CONTINUES TO
HANDLE WELL THE EXPANSE OF STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM CANADA. THE 06 UTC NAM/GFS SUPPORT
LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00 UTC NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE NEAR ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES THROUGH 850 MB IN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH 35 TO
40 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS RESULTS IN BORDERLINE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THEN BORDERLINE ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE WEST WHERE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHALLENGE FOR
TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE 08 UTC RAP FOR
CLOUD COVER WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRATUS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEPICTS A SLOW CLEARING TREND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY BE HELD UNDER THE STRATUS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN ITS PREFERRED CLOUD COVER...ALSO FOLLOWED THE 08
UTC RAP FOR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT STILL ON TRACK...INDICATING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
WEST. HAVE INCREASED POST-FRONTAL WINDS ABOVE THE CONSENSUS
BLEND...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH EXPECTED. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF QPF AND SNOW RATIOS
AVERAGING 15:1 RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TROTTERS...TO DICKINSON AND SELFRIDGE...AND POINTS SOUTHWEST. WIND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT COULD PRODUCE SNOW BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LIKELY APPROACH 10 BELOW
ZERO IN THE TURTLE LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO MID TEENS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CIGS WILL BEGIN IN MVFR STATUS BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO LOW VFR
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25KT WITH GUSTS TO
38KT CAN BE EXPECTED AT KJMS THROUGH 22Z SUNDAY AS WELL. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SCT TO BKN VFR CIGS
THEREAFTER. AN ARCTIC SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO KISN
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. EXPECT CIGS TO PERIODICALLY LOWER TO
MVFR STATUS ONCE AGAIN...DEVELOPING FROM NORTHERN AERODROMES
ON SOUTHWARD AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ004-005-011>013-
021>023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE IS WIND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM RUGBY TO CARRINGTON HAVE ALREADY EXCEEDED A SUSTAINED 26 KTS
(30 MPH) WITH A GUST TO 51 MPH AT CARRINGTON. EVEN FARGO HAD A
PEAK WIND TO 43 MPH AT 0830 CST. WITH THE RAP SHOWING AT LEAST 35
KTS AT 925 HPA TO MIX TO THE SURFACE AND UP TO 40 KTS AT 850 HPA
IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DEEPEN THAT FAR WITH CLOUD COVER...THINK
A WIND ADVISORY IS PRUDENT FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN UNTIL 00 UTC TONIGHT. TRUE ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET
AT ALL LOCATIONS AND BE INTERMITTENT...BUT EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH THE DAY. WEB CAMS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY INTO THE 2 TO 5 SM RANGE ARE DUE MORE TO PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE THAN SNOW...SO ADDED FOG THROUGH 18 UTC AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH 00 UTC. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...SO THERE MAY BE SOME SLICK SPOTS...BUT
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OR
DRIZZLE FREEZING ON IMPACT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND SPEEDS. LOW PRESSURE IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD...LEAVING THE REGION IN A WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. MODELS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW TO 925MB BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...AND UP TO 850MB ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATE 925MB WIND SPEEDS 30-35
KNOTS...AND 850MB WIND SPEEDS AROUND 40 KNOTS (WEAKER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA). WITH THE MODELS INDICATING DEEPER MIXING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES AROUND 26 KNOTS
SUSTAINED). CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON AN
ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDS
UPSTREAM...AND UNTIL THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...DO NOT SEE ANY POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING (DELAYED THE
CLEARING UNTIL TONIGHT). TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM
TODAY...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES. A STRONGER UPPER
WAVE IS ENTERING SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED...BUT
COULD BE UP TO AN INCH. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE GIVEN CAA AND
LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE.
LOW LEVEL RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE
TO CLEAR THE SKY. ASSUMING THAT THE SKY DOES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE TEENS (FOLLOWING COLDER GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED
BETTER THE PAST WEEK).
ON SUNDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE MOST AREAS ENOUGH TIME TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW-
MID 40S (ESPECIALLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY). STAYED CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMP
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH OUR FORECAST COULD BE 5F-8F TOO COOL. THE
STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE...AND WE HAVE LOWER END POPS
HERE. ALSO...INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FROPA GIVEN THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED (MODELS ONLY SHOWING WINDS
ALOFT OF 25-30 KNOTS...SO IF THAT IS TRUE THIS WOULD BE SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURE VALUES ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY -12C TO
-18C. NEEDLESS TO SAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
VALUES. FOLLOWED THE COLDER GUIDANCE CONSIDERING MODEL PERFORMANCE
FOR THIS PAST WEEK.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...TRANSITORY MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SFC HIGH CONTINUES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DECENT TEMP RECOVERY...LIMITED SOMEWHAT THOUGH BY
THE VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD...WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE REGION. WITH
FAVORABLE WEST WINDS...TEMPS INTO THE 40S IN SOME AREAS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT VARY AMONG MODELS...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. ANY IMPULSE MAY
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP...BUT NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS
LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
CIGS ACROSS THE REGION TRANSITION WEST TO EAST FROM MVFR TO IFR.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING OR EVEN MORE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...BRIEFLY UP TO 35 KTS
VCNTY KFAR...THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...WITH
FLURRIES TO THE WEST.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...WJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AT 3 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATEST RUC SHOWS THAT THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE SOUTHWARD OF 850 TO 925 MB MOISTURE. THIS
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION AT 800 MB THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT AND THEN THIS INVERSION LOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PRODUCES ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT THE DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION IS
ABLE TO MIX OUT ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE SATELLITE LOOP...THERE ARE CURRENTLY HOLES AT THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS MOISTURE AND THIS WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...NOT QUITE AS CERTAIN
WITH THE CLOUD FORECAST IN THE AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH DARKNESS
NOT THAT FAR AWAY...DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE RUC JUST IN CASE THE CURRENT
MOISTURE THAT IS OUT THERE CAN SPREAD BELOW THE INVERSION.
MEANWHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...THE CLOUD
FORECAST IS MORE CERTAIN AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS AREA WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE AREA
WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS AS THE 925 TO 850 LAPSE
RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONG 800 TO 600 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND 280-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE WILL QUICKLY SATURATE THE AIR MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL BE
FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE LESS THAN 30 MB.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO 5 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY START OUT
AS RAIN AND THEN TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY BE EVEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A
COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE JUST A
TRACE.
ON MONDAY MORNING...THE ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE
280-290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP TO LESS THAN 30 MB
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER BY THIS
TIME...THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE RUNNING AROUND A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH.
LIKE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE STRONG
COLD AIR ADEVCTION. SINCE THE CONSRAW TENDS TO HANDLE THESE
SITUATIONS THE BEST...WENT WITH IT FOR POPULATING THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE
20S AND LOWER 30S DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN STABILIZE AND RISE
A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE
RANGE. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON AND 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF IT WAS NOT FOR
THE LACK OF MEASURABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WINDS REMAINING
AROUND 10 MPH...TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILLS ON
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
ON TUESDAY...850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NORMALLY IN THE MID 40S FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTH 925 TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM
ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 8C. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY EVENING...
AND THEN STABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SATURATE. THE 280-290K
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DO NOT FALL TO LESS THAN 30 MB
UNTIL THIS SYSTEM GETS INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL IT MOVED INTO THIS AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
PROBLEMATIC CIG FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS POINT TO A
BROAD EXPANSE OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS ND...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING DOWN OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ERODE THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STRATUS...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AT
KRST/KLSE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAP IS QUITE
DIFFERENT...HOLDING ONTO THIS LOW SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS HOLD ONTO A 850-800 MB INVERSION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED...CLOUDS AND
THE MVFR CIGS COULD HANG AROUND TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY. GOING TO
STEER THE TAFS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY
TO CLEAR CLOUDS A BIT TOO FAST IN FALL/WINTER...AND THIS MIGHT BE
THE CASE HERE. IF MIXING BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH CLOUDS
ERODING...TAFS WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR THE QUICKER CLEARING
TREND.
AS FOR WINDS...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM RELATIVELY
STRONG/GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...SO LOOK FOR
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION.....RIECK
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
VEERING AROUND TO THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW AND FLOODING THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLIER TODAY...BUT HAVE NOT SEEN
AN OB WITH PRECIP IN IT OVER THE PAST HOUR. WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY...AND HAVE OBSERVED A FEW GUSTS
REACHING 34 TO 35 KNOTS. WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...SHOULD SEE THE GUSTINESS CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND GUSTS AND LIGHT PRECIP ARE THE
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND SOUTHEAST ONTARIO THIS EVENING AND INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
AS VEERING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH SOME SURFACE STABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...MARGINALLY
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT
PROGGED SOUNDINGS...THEY SHOW DECREASING SATURATION IN THE LOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. THINK THIS IS CONSIDERABLY
TOO OPTIMISTIC...BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS BUT ALSO ON THERMAL
TROUGHING AND VEERING FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND LONGER. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH
12Z. CONDITIONS BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER THE SNOW BELTS OF N-C WISCONSIN SO
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE. DELTA T/S ARE ONLY AROUND
13-14C...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS AN INCH OVER
NORTHERN VILAS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH BACKING WINDS AND A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS
ERODING PRETTY QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THEN A MID AND HIGH DECK
SHOULD INCREASE CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. A 125KT JET
AT 300MB COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A DECENT AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS. THE UPSTREAM LAKES ARE NOT FROZEN YET AND IT
SEEMS LIKE THEY CONTRIBUTE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR
OUTBREAKS EARLY IN THE SEASON. SO THERE COULD BE AT LEAST A
DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THEN DRY AND MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY IN FAR NORTHCENTRAL
WISCONSIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO
EXTREME AND WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AT TIMES. THE MAIN THING WORKING
AGAINST A BIG EVENT IS THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND ALSO SUBSIDENCE.
THINK THERE WILL BE SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE TWO DAYS
IN VILAS COUNTY.
IT WILL BECOME MILDER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE CENTER
OF THE COLD AIR PASSES BY AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE EAST OVER
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST...AND BRING IN
COLDER AIR AND AMPLE CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING MORE LAKE EFFECT
BASED TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT WHEN WILL START TO SEE CLEARING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. WITHIN THE PRECIP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...LOCAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING WHEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD
OCCUR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME VERY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE LATEST 12Z DATA IS SHOWING WINDS INCREASING AT 900MB TONIGHT
INTO THE 40-45 KNOT RANGE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THIS TRAJECTORY IS SUPPORTIVE OF GALES OVER THE BAY OF
GREEN BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ADJACENT TO DOOR
COUNTY. SO WITH COORDINATION FROM MQT...UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING. SOME DISCUSSION OF UPGRADING TO GALES FARTHER SOUTH...BUT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SOME STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT
SUGGESTS THE HIGHER END GUSTS WILL OCCUR MORE TOWARDS OPEN LAKE THAN
THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1144 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.UPDATE...
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD. A LARGE SWATH OF
CLOUDS COVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC LOW AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
AREA. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND IS
GRADUALLY MOVING EAST.
SKY COVER WAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GOES/R PG NSSL WRF ABI SYNTHETIC
SAT IMAGERY HAS A FAIR HANDLE ON MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER. IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY RECEDING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER DAY.
JUXTAPOSED WITH MODEL RH AND RAP PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...THIS
DOESNT SEEM TOO UNREASONABLE.
HOWEVER...THE ABI FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO QUICK GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT THE MODELS AND RAP13 HOLD ON TO AT THE LOW
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LATEST TRENDS
VIA VIS SATELLITE AND WHAT IS UPSTREAM.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. VERY IMPRESSIVE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DECENT WINDS ALOFT...WITH MEAN
1000-850 HPA WINDS AROUND 35 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD
BE REALIZED AT THE SFC...GIVEN ADEQUATE MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER
INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ET
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT OVERCAST VFR DECK TO BROKEN
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS UPSTREAM OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN MAY
OCCUR AT TAF SITES...THOUGH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP THESE
CEILINGS MIX UP TO VFR CATEGORY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. GUSTY
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND VEER NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT...BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES BY 12Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. FEW TO SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.
WOOD
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
PASSING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WEST NORTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING NORTHWEST TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35
KNOT GALES. WINDS AT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 35
KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...WHICH MAY MIX DOWN AT TIMES. NOT SURE IF
THEY WILL BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING. WILL KEEP WATCH
AND DECIDE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENS SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS ON SUNDAY...UNTIL THE GUSTS SUBSIDE BELOW
22 KNOTS.
WOOD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
IMPRESSIVE PV1.5 CENTER BELOW 500 MB NEAR GRB CURRENTLY AND PULLING
AWAY RAPIDLY THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE KICKING IN AND EVEN BRIEF
CLEARING BEFORE COLD ADVECTION MIXING CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
RAP13 TAKES SECOND SUB 500MB PV1.5 CENTER FROM NORTH DAKOTA
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MIDDAY. MODELS HOLD ONTO
DECENT MOISTURE AROUND 3000FT THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. A TAD OF CAPE SHOWN BUT VERY STRONG
INVERSION IN 850-800 MB LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION SPREADING
OUT A FAIRLY LOW LEVEL. MOISTURE STAYS BELOW -5C SO LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SPRINKLES FLURRIES SO WILL LEAVE IT DRY DESPITE SOME
HINTS FROM 4KM MODELS OF THAT POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
WILL BE COLD ADVECTING ALL DAY BUT 925 MB TEMPS UP AROUND +5C
SUGGEST UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BY MIDDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP
OFF. ECMWF MOS HAS MIDDLE 50S AND THAT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE BUT LOW
CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH.
TONIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
1030MB HIGH SETTLES INTO IOWA BY MORNING. NORTHWEST GRADIENT
REMAINS FRESH ALL NIGHT SO NOT PARTICULARLY GOOD RADIATION
CONDITIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP DROP TEMPERATURES BUT READINGS
WILL ONLY GET DOWN AROUND 30F DUE TO DECENT MIXING AND LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND LATE AFTERNOON WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WILL
HELP TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S. STEADY WAA
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE WAA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE MKX
FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODEL DISCREPANCIES LEAD TO THE MENTION OF RAIN OR
SNOW IN NORTHERN MKX FCST AREA. THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO HAVE A
FASTER SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI THAN THE
NAM...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. WPC PREFERS A NON-GFS SOLUTION SO
STEERED AWAY FROM IT AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY THAT SOME WAA PRECIP COULD TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT...THUS KEPT THE SMALL POPS IN THE FCST. PRECIP TYPE WOULD
BE RAIN IF IT/S WAA-RELATED AND SNOW IF IT/S COLD FRONT-RELATED.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THEREAFTER. SOME MODELS SUGGEST PRECIP WILL ARRIVE
JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN WI WHILE OTHERS
REMAIN DRY. THERE IS STRONGER OMEGA POST-FRONTAL WITH SLOPED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER BELOW 850MB THAT COULD LIMIT AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL ROUGHLY BE THE HIGH TEMPS TUE IN THE
NORTHWEST MKX FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEAST WI WILL LIKELY HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE MORNING. IF ALL THE PRECIP IS POST FRONTAL...THEN MODEL
TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT ALL SNOW. IF IT IS ALONG THE FRONT...THEN
EXPECT A RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE COLUMN SATURATES AND
COOLS.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST TO END THE PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SO KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP
END TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. 925MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO -10C OVERNIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR...ALLOWING LOWEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR...IN THE UPPER
TEENS INLAND FROM THE LAKE. 925MB TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO -8C BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S ON
TUESDAY...DESPITE SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN...SO IT WILL FEEL QUITE COLD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE
REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES.
A WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
WI ON THU AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN WITH IT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
HAVE MORE AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT QPF...SO EXPECT INCREASING POPS FOR
THU WITH LATER FORECASTS. THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE A WHILE TO
MOVE OUT...BUT ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTHERN WI FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WILL TURN WINDS TO THE WEST TODAY AND THEN
NORTHWEST TONIGHT. BROKEN VFR LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO BE THE RULE TODAY
BUT COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR THIS MORNING AS BATCH FROM NORTHEAST
IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA MOVES EAST.
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG CLOUDS HOLD IN. NAM SCATTERS THINGS
OUT BY 21Z WHILE GFS HOLDS ON THROUGH 03Z. WILL LEAN TOWARD SLOWER
GFS AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CAN BE STUBBORN IN THESE SITUATIONS.
MARINE...
GALES ARE SUBSIDING BUT WILL STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
COORDINATED WITH GRB AND LOT AND WILL END GALE AT NEXT NEAR SHORE
UPDATE AND GO WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY.
FLOW IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY
BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WAVES DRIVEN BY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE FOR A
WHILE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WILL RESULT
IN GUST NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS A POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY...A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
AND AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
A MAINLY CLOUDY AND SEASONALLY COOL DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS
NOW INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN. A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WILL PROPAGATE TO
THE EAST TODAY THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS FEATURE
WILL PULL SOME COOLER AIR DOWN WITH IT AND CREATE SOME STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS LAYER FORMING AND HOLDING ON THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. LOW LEVEL LIFT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK AND SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH
TO DEVELOP ANY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER THAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HAVE KNOCKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AND
WILL HELP TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEXT WEEK IS ON THE COLD AIR THAT IS PRIMED TO
TAKE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE
GOING TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 850MB TEMPERATURES
DROP FROM AROUND 0C ON SUNDAY TO AROUND -15C BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET TO 30F ON TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. 09.00Z NAM/GFS
STANDARDIZED 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOWS ABOUT -2
DEVIATIONS FROM NORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH
TYPICALLY MEANS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHING RECORD
LEVELS. THE RECORD LOWS ARE PRETTY LOW FOR THESE TWO DAYS...SO AM
NOT EXPECTING THEM TO BE BROKEN BUT THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE OTHER PART OF THIS SYSTEM IS WITH WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY
PRECIPITATION TO FORM BEHIND/ALONG THE COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING IS OFF TO THE EAST WHERE
THE MAIN TROUGH IS GOING TO TRACK...BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT
FROM THE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
SOME PRECIPITATION. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD
OCCUR IN THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WITH IT LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUICK
SHOT...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM IT. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR IT IS FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN WHERE THE
FORCING IS A BIT DEEPER.
GOING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE COLD AIR STARTS TO GET
PUSHED TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY ALREADY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY COMING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013
PROBLEMATIC CIG FORECAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS POINT TO A
BROAD EXPANSE OF MOSTLY MVFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS ND...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TRACKING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS SUGGEST THAT
SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING DOWN OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL ERODE THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW STRATUS...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AT
KRST/KLSE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAP IS QUITE
DIFFERENT...HOLDING ONTO THIS LOW SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING. ALL THE MODELS HOLD ONTO A 850-800 MB INVERSION THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO IF THE MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED...CLOUDS AND
THE MVFR CIGS COULD HANG AROUND TODAY/TONIGHT. MODELS ARE ALL DOING
A DECENT JOB DEPICTING WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY. GOING TO
STEER THE TAFS TOWARD THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY
TO CLEAR CLOUDS A BIT TOO FAST IN FALL/WINTER...AND THIS MIGHT BE
THE CASE HERE. IF MIXING BECOMES EVIDENT...WITH CLOUDS
ERODING...TAFS WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR THE QUICKER CLEARING
TREND.
AS FOR WINDS...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THEM RELATIVELY
STRONG/GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...SO LOOK FOR
DECREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HALBACH
LONG TERM....HALBACH
AVIATION.....RIECK