Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/07/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1018 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH UVV INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT OUT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE
ECHOES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD SEE THEM INCREASING
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EL PASO COUNTY INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
UPDATED TO TAPER BACK POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
WITH POPS RAMPING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRERNT
OBSERVATIONS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT RAN ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS WINDS
HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE 18Z NAM12 AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS BEGIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS BEGIN AT 00Z AND LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG VORT MAX/BEST LIFT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SAN JUANS NORTHEAST THROUGH
PUEBLO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE BAND
SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST EL PASO AND EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SCATTERED POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW IF 00Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING THROUGH COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THIS WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +1C TO +3C DOWN TO -7C TO -9C
BY TUESDAY EVENING (00Z WED). ANY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE AREA
AFTER THAT TIME WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER MONUMENT HILL IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 AND 12Z EC NOW CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS...
THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE GRADUALLY COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL COMES TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE WETS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT AREAS TUESDAY EVENING IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER
FALLS BEFORE THAT. ALSO...THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS OF LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ALL IS DONE...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST A DUSTING OR LESS. LOOKS DRY FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER. THEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY...MILD AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WINDY AS IT APPEARS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND/OR HIGH FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE DAY APPROACHES. THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT FRIDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE WITH
RADAR INDICATING SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS
TIME. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEADING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT ALS..COS AND PUB FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON
RUNWAYS WITH WARM ROAD SURFACES...THOUGH MAY SEE UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...MAINLY AT ALS AND COS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN
12Z-15Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AT
COS AND PUB. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALS
AFT 16Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...BREEZY TO WINDY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
THROUGH WED MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS PUSHING INTO THE W ATLC AS OF MID AFTN...GFS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CENTER HAS LOST BTWN 3-4MB OF SFC PRES SINCE
MIDDAY. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H1000 AND H925 WINDS BTWN
20-25KTS...CONFIRMED BY THE KMLB/KTBW/KJAX VAD WIND PROFILERS. MOST
SFC/OCEAN OBS REFLECTING THE DECREASE AS WELL AS SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED A TOUCH SINCE PEAKING EARLIER THIS MRNG.
WHILE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED...THEY STILL HAVE TO SPIN DOWN
FROM A HIGH LVL. AS SUCH...BREEZY/WINDY CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUNSET BEFORE DROPPING BACK. SOME GUSTS ABV 20MPH MAY PERSIST ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND
AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ON SCHEDULE (SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
SECTION).
LATEST BEACH OBS INDICATE NO DUNE BREACHES OCCURRED WITH THE LATEST
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WHILE STILL HIGH...ARE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND AS WELL. TIDE HAS EBBED AND WILL REBUILD THROUGH 9PM
THIS EVNG. BUOY OBS STILL SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF WAVE ENERGY OVER
THE LCL ATLC...AND WITH STEADY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING...WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY/COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONFIG IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE
DROPPED LATER THIS EVNG SHOULD NO ADDITIONAL DUNE EROSION OCCUR.
REGARDLESS...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MRNG FOR
ALL COUNTIES.
THE DEEP AND STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOW LVL AIRMASS OVER THE SW ATLC...H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES LARGELY
AOB 75PCT. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERHEAD WILL PREVENT ANY
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DVLPG...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLD/SCT LOW-TOPPED ATLC SHRAS TO PUSH ACRS THE
EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA THRU THE PD. IMPACT WILL BE LIMITED TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...QPF AOB 0.10".
WITH THE AIRMASS BLO H85 NOW MORE OR LESS FULLY MODIFIED AND STEADY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABV AVG WITH MINS IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND L/M70S ALONG THE COAST...WED AFTN
MAXES IN THE L/M80S.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT WED AND THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BACKING WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WED AND REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THU. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE BREAKING OF THE MID LEVEL CAP POP REMAIN
LOW...AROUND 20 PERCENT...DUE TO THE SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY.
HIGHS LOW AND MID 80S. LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR AND NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL TO THE UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70S AT THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE AND WESTERN MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES.
FRI-SUN (MODIFIED)... GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER
THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
FRI WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL
CWA BUT MAINTAIN MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE
FLOW. FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT FRI-SUN.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 06/18Z...ERLY SFC WND G22-27KTS ALL SITES BCMG E/NE G18-23KTS
CSTL SITES S OF KTIX AFT 06/00Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD/SCT SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WIND EVENT HAS PEAKED AS OBS FROM THE DATA
BUOYS/C-MAN STATIONS OVER THE PAST SVRL HRS SHOW A CLEAR DOWNWARD
TREND...SUSTAINED WINDS NOW AOB 20KTS WITH GUSTS AOB 25KTS...SEAS
STILL RATHER TREACHEROUS AT 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 9-12FT OFFSHORE WITH
DOMINANT PDS 9-10SEC. SFC PGRAD BTWN KJAX-KMFL DOWN TO ARND 7MB IS
IN LINE WITH THESE OBS.
WITH CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN...DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE. WILL ALLOW THE GALE
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 21Z...REPLACED WITH AN SCA VALID THRU 06/16Z.
EXTENSION OF THE SCA MAY BE NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WIND FIELD DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE OPENING UP WITH FCST
DOMINANT ARND 10SEC AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK. MAY BE ABLE TO GET AWAY
WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SCA
CONFIGURATION.
THU-SAT... WINDS VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO VARIABLE AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WED NIGHT/EARLY THU TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OVERNIGHT THU. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT THU
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRI AND HIGHER SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY FRI NIGHT AND 5 FEET NEARSHORE TO 9
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 82 67 83 / 20 30 20 20
MCO 67 85 67 85 / 20 20 20 20
MLB 73 83 71 85 / 20 30 20 30
VRB 73 83 71 85 / 30 30 20 40
LEE 66 84 66 85 / 20 20 20 20
SFB 67 84 67 85 / 20 20 20 20
ORL 67 84 68 85 / 20 20 20 20
FPR 73 82 71 85 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INDIAN
RIVER-MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
ST. LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
950 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED SEVERAL GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO ADJUST TIMING OF
RAIN AND FRONT BY AN HOUR OR TWO BY PRIMARILY USING HEAVILY
WEIGHTED HRRR BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING
IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING PROSPECT FOR FOG AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL LOOK FOR FAIRLY WINDY
DAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING LIFTING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TIMING HAS FRONT AND A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...REACHING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY AROUND SUN-UP AND CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY EXITING OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. RAIN ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT INDICATES THAT THUNDER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHWEST...TAPERING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM THE
METRO AREA SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY SEE A THREAT FOR PATCHY AREAS OF
FROST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
20
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS NO LONGER
SHOWING PRECIP FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. 00Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THUS HAVE LEFT ALL
MENTION OF POPS OUT.
11/16
AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BY 05Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY ABOUT 08Z.
LINE OF SHOWERS ENTERS NORTHWEST GEORGIA AROUND 05Z IMPACTING THE
ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z AND KAHN BETWEEN 13Z
AND 16Z. IF THE SHOWERS ARE ABLE TO REACH THE KCSG AND KMCN TAF
AIRPORTS...THE TIMING WILL BE ROUGHLY IN THE 14/15Z THROUGH 17Z
TIME FRAME. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-10KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
22Z WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TO AROUND 3-6KTS AFTER 22Z BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z AROUND 2-5KT AND EVENTUALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST 8-12KT WITH
GUSTS 15-22KT BY 14-16Z MOST AREAS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF -DZ AND IFR CIGS TONIGHT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
30
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 66 38 64 / 10 30 5 0
ATLANTA 54 64 39 62 / 30 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 50 60 33 59 / 50 80 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 55 61 35 61 / 70 90 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 71 41 67 / 20 20 0 0
GAINESVILLE 53 64 38 61 / 30 60 0 0
MACON 57 72 39 67 / 5 20 5 0
ROME 55 61 34 60 / 100 60 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 56 65 35 64 / 30 60 0 0
VIDALIA 59 77 48 69 / 5 20 10 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1228 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SCATTERED DZ/-SHRA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS LIKELY.
* A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS ARND 25KT.
* MORE WIDESPREAD RA WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. LIFR CIGS PSBL.
* WINDS BECOMING W TO NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WED AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER W TEXAS/E NEW MEXICO WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH E IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI. SCATTERED SHRA/DZ ARE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A GYY TO PERU LINE AND SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH.
VSBYS WILL DROP TO ARND 3SM AS THE DZ MOVES OVERHEAD WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO ARND 900 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF..ONLY
LASTING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE DZ/-SHRA WILL PUSH NE LEADING
TO A FEW DRY HOURS LATE THIS AFTN IN THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. RFD IS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...THEREFORE THE WINDOW OF
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE NARROW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS DRY PERIOD.
THE LOW PUSHES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR-LIFR CIGS
AND STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TOMORROW.
THE MORE MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERHEAD WITH S WINDS GUSTING
TO ARND 25 KT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TURNING W TO NW AND GUSTING 15-20 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS....MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND EXACT HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Warm front almost stationary just to the northwest of the CWA this
morning and plenty of llvl moisture in the area. Scattered showers
moving into some slightly drier air and echos are diminishing
somewhat as they push northeast. That being said, ceilings and vis
both dropping as the boundary layer increases in RH this morning.
With the wave still just to the se...expect this trend to continue
through much of the afternoon. Have expanded current pops and pops
through the afternoon. With prolonged rainfall, expect
temperatures will have a hard time with the diurnal swing and have
adjusted those temps, particularly south of I-70. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Prolonged IFR and LIFR conditions at PIA BMI and SPI this morning
as llvl moisture increases from southerly flow and scattered rain
showers. VFR conditions just to the south and will provide a brief
break for the early afternoon hours. Timing is a bit problematic
as the areas with the best clearing did not drop quite as far this
morning. Break in the conditions expected through the early
evening before the approaching front spreads more showers this
evening and through the overnight. Gusts continuing through the
overnight and tomorrow morning with winds just off the sfc to
35kts at 1500ft. Momentum transfer with rain showers expected to
translate some of that wind to the surface resulting in a blustery
overnight and early morning for Wed. Dropping categories to MVFR
late tonight until morning...then a drop to IFR mainly for cigs at
this point. Will be difficult to drop vis much below MVFR with the
stronger winds.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night
00Z models continue to trend quicker with cold frontal passage Wed
and diminishing/ending showers from west to east during Wed afternoon
over the IL River valley and rest of central and eastern IL Wed
evening. Also have increased chances of light rain showers and
sprinkles today over central IL, with band over se IL shifting
northward during the day and mainly impacting the IL river valley
by late afternoon.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1041 mb high pressure over
Maine New Brunswick Canada and ridging across the Atlantic states
while a cold front extended from 1000 mb low pressure along the
northern Ontario/Manitoba province line through se parts of WI/IA
into nw MO and central KS to 1004 mb low pressure over west
central NM. Warm air advection and isentropic lift had developing
a band of light rain showers and sprinkles over southern MO and se
IL into west central IN during the night. NAM and RUC models shows
this light qpf shifting northward during the day and focused nw of
the IL river by late afternoon. So have increase chances of light
rains showers and sprinkles this morning and shifting into the IL
river valley during the afternoon while eastern IL is trending
drier. Highs today in the lower 60s, except some upper 50s over
the IL river valley where cloudy skies prevail today.
Better forcing into the IL river valley overnight and across rest
of central and eastern IL Wednesday as cold front pushes east
across IL during the day Wednesday. Lows tonight in the lower 50s.
Highs Wed range from mid 50s nw of IL river to the lower 60s over
se IL with breezy conditions expected and wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph possible Wed. Have 80-100% chance of showers across region Wed
morning and then diminish over the IL river valley behind cold
front Wed afternoon and diminish over eastern IL during Wed
evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch across region expected
Wed.
Dry and cooler conditions behind the cold front overnight Wed
night and Thursday and clouds quickly decrease with fair amount of
sunshine expected Thu and highs in the lower 50s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night
More of a zonal upper level flow sets up late this week into the
weekend with generally dry conditions expected. A short wave
moving east into the western great lakes Friday night to give
isolated light rain showers from Galesburg to Lacon north with
most of central IL staying dry. Temps cool a bit Saturday night
and Sunday behind this weather system. Dry conditions look to hold
through Monday night across central and southeast IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1004 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY...IFR CIGS PSBL.
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS ARND 25KT.
* ADDITIONAL RA WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. LIFR CIGS PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ADJUSTED TAFS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR RUN.
THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MORE STEADY SHOWERS MOVE IN
LATE THIS AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THINKING LOWER CIGS WILL
MOVE IN WITH THE PRECIP. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE TIED TO PRECIP
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE A FEW DRY HOURS THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING A BIT TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR...BUT RAIN
RETURNS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR VSBY ARE
STILL EXPECTED. IFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED SW-NE FROM
NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO
TO CENTRAL IL TODAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS DO SHOW A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BACK UP
TO VFR. THE RAIN WITH THE MO DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR
THE MOST PART SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT EAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST TO
OVER MN AND THE MID MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE BECAME WEAK OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY LATE THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS....MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
EXACT HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
820 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MVFR CIGS SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY...IFR CIGS PSBL.
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS ARND 25KT.
* ADDITIONAL RA WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. LIFR CIGS PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
ADJUSTED TAFS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR RUN.
THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MORE STEADY SHOWERS MOVE IN
LATE THIS AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THINKING LOWER CIGS WILL
MOVE IN WITH THE PRECIP. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE TIED TO PRECIP
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE A FEW DRY HOURS THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING A BIT TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR...BUT RAIN
RETURNS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR VSBY ARE
STILL EXPECTED. IFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED SW-NE FROM
NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO
TO CENTRAL IL TODAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS DO SHOW A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BACK UP
TO VFR. THE RAIN WITH THE MO DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR
THE MOST PART SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT EAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST TO
OVER MN AND THE MID MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE BECAME WEAK OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY LATE THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS....MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
EXACT HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
608 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING
* POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
* TIMING OF ONSET OF STEADY RA TONIGHT
* INCREASING SSE-S WIND LATER AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED SW-NE FROM
NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO
TO CENTRAL IL TODAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS DO SHOW A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BACK UP
TO VFR. THE RAIN WITH THE MO DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR
THE MOST PART SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT EAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST TO
OVER MN AND THE MID MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE BECAME WEAK OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY LATE THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY MID AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night
00Z models continue to trend quicker with cold frontal passage Wed
and diminishing/ending showers from west to east during Wed afternoon
over the IL River valley and rest of central and eastern IL Wed
evening. Also have increased chances of light rain showers and
sprinkles today over central IL, with band over se IL shifting
northward during the day and mainly impacting the IL river valley
by late afternoon.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1041 mb high pressure over
Maine New Brunswick Canada and ridging across the Atlantic states
while a cold front extended from 1000 mb low pressure along the
northern Ontario/Manitoba province line through se parts of WI/IA
into nw MO and central KS to 1004 mb low pressure over west
central NM. Warm air advection and isentropic lift had developing
a band of light rain showers and sprinkles over southern MO and se
IL into west central IN during the night. NAM and RUC models shows
this light qpf shifting northward during the day and focused nw of
the IL river by late afternoon. So have increase chances of light
rains showers and sprinkles this morning and shifting into the IL
river valley during the afternoon while eastern IL is trending
drier. Highs today in the lower 60s, except some upper 50s over
the IL river valley where cloudy skies prevail today.
Better forcing into the IL river valley overnight and across rest
of central and eastern IL Wednesday as cold front pushes east
across IL during the day Wednesday. Lows tonight in the lower 50s.
Highs Wed range from mid 50s nw of IL river to the lower 60s over
se IL with breezy conditions expected and wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph possible Wed. Have 80-100% chance of showers across region Wed
morning and then diminish over the IL river valley behind cold
front Wed afternoon and diminish over eastern IL during Wed
evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch across region expected
Wed.
Dry and cooler conditions behind the cold front overnight Wed
night and Thursday and clouds quickly decrease with fair amount of
sunshine expected Thu and highs in the lower 50s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night
More of a zonal upper level flow sets up late this week into the
weekend with generally dry conditions expected. A short wave
moving east into the western great lakes Friday night to give
isolated light rain showers from Galesburg to Lacon north with
most of central IL staying dry. Temps cool a bit Saturday night
and Sunday behind this weather system. Dry conditions look to hold
through Monday night across central and southeast IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
A storm system is expected to impact the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A lead wave of light
rain will lift north across the area mainly this morning,
accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs. Most of the terminals should
return to VFR conditions behind the initial rainfall, although KPIA
may stay lower due to its closer proximity to the approaching system.
The rainfall will gradually become more widespread tonight as the
system draws closer. This will have MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions becoming widespread as well.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
128 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
217 PM CST
TONIGHT...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NOTED WITH BUILDING CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DO EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL...WITH SOME THIN SHIELDING. SFC WINDS HAVE REMAINED
SOUTHERLY...WITH GOOD MIXING THIS AFTN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY WARMED INTO THE MID 50S...AND MAY
TOUCH 60 DEG SOUTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE LATER THIS AFTN
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
UPSTREAM AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EXIST...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT
AS THE CHANNEL OF MOISTURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWFA THAT ANY
CLEARING/THINNING WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS LIKELY INHIBITING MUCH
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...AND COULD SEE TEMPS HOVER ARND 50 CLOSER TO
CHICAGO.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT TO DELAY PRECIP
FROM ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWFA UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
TUE...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES NEAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM THE ELONGATED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY FEED OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE INTO
THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE AND SATURATE THE MOIST CHANNEL THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT A MILD START TO THE DAY...THEN TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM
MUCH BEYOND THE MID 50S TUE AFTN. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...HOWEVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE
TEMPS NEAR 60 DEG. THE MOIST CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
THE CWFA...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MODERATE AT TIMES. HAVE BUMPED
MORE AREAS INTO CATEGORICAL POPS TUE AFTN/NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY
IN THE LOW 50S...PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPR 40S.
ALTHOUGH WITH CONTINUED FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR AND CLOUD COVER THAT
TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH.
WED WILL FEATURE THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MOIST CHANNEL CONTINUES TO FEED
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
FROPA MIDDAY WED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO STEADILY COOL
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OR POST FROPA INTO THE 40S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FEED IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S WED AFTN. SO HIGH TEMPS WED FOR THE NORTHWEST CWFA
WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MID-LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST WED NIGHT ARRIVING
OVERHEAD OF THE CWFA...WITH BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THE LLVLS AND
BRING P-CLOUDY SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO COOL WED NGT/THUR TO ARND -5 TO -8 DEG C...HOWEVER
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BEFORE IT WOULD BECOME MIXED WITH RA/SN.
FOR THUR TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EASTERN CWFA...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LLVLS. EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE CWFA...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY A PORTION OF NORTHWEST INDIANA THAT COULD
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES. TEMPS THUR WILL BE MORE SEASONAL IN
THE MID/UPR 40S.
QPF FOR THE MID-WEEK EVENT APPEARS TO BE ABUNDANT. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.7 TO 1.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWFA WITHIN A 30-36HR TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING...MEDIUM/HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL NOISE AMONGST MEMBERS WITH
THE PAST FEW CYCLES...WHICH POINT TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEMI-ZONAL SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAY CONTINUE INTO SAT. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH MAY SLIDE
INTO THE PAC-NW FRI AND ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW QUICK THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWFA SAT/SUN.
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
* TIMING OF ONSET OF STEADY RA TONIGHT
* INCREASING SSE-S WIND LATER AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THEY OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN THE
FINER SCALE WHICH IS CRITICAL TO FORMULATING POINT FORECASTS
WHICH TAFORS BASICALLY ARE. SOME MODELS WERE ALREADY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM SE KS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY 05.06Z SO DISCOUNTED THE CONTINUED SPREAD OF THESE
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY.
TREND OF MODELS IS TO CONTINUE TO RE-MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT BUT INDICATE MINIMAL LIFT IN THIS MOISTURE TO GENERATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT NOR THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A PROB30 FOR -SHRA
FIRST PART OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A TEMPO FOR -RA SECOND
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE RED RIVER TO OVER SE OK LATE THIS EVENING IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE NE AND APPROACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE ACROSS IT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS W
OF THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT E TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES E TO OVER MN AND THE MID
MO VALLEY BY 06.12Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT
AN EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING
OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH TIME.
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A
FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS THIS LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY 06.06Z. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN
THE EVENING WITH GUSTS 20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY MID AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING WEST. RAIN/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MODERATE NW WINDS...BECOMING VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
236 PM CST
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GALES HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAKE TODAY
IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO HUDSON BAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW TO A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS
LOW ITSELF LIFTS OVER THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LEAVING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND LIGHTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Only minor changes made to the hourly forecast grids for sky cover
and temperatures. Otherwise, the current forecast is on target
overnight for mainly cloudy conditions and temperatures only
dropping another 6-8 degrees because of the sky cover.
Weak shortwave in NE Texas is expected to move NE overnight and
NNE Tuesday morning. NAM, RAP and SREF models all indicate that
the best isentropic lift and moisture will be in west central IL,
with eastern IL relatively dry. The 00Z ILX sounding had a lot of
dry air in upper levels (above 10,000 ft), and still a fair amount
of dry air below 5,000 ft. Thus, any rain should hold off until
after daybreak.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
A couple of periods of MVFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours - one during the morning in all of central and eastern IL
and one in central IL late Tuesday evening.
Tracking a weak shortwave moving toward the Ozarks with light rain
and a mix of VFR, MVFR and even IFR ceilings in spots. Still
expecting this to lift toward central IL shortly after daybreak
with showers and generally MVFR ceilings for a few hours during
the morning. Patchy IFR ceilings are being observed in the
ArkLaTex region, so will keep an eye on this to potentially
develop when the shortwave trough approaches. The NAM model is
indicating IFR ceilings for a short period Tuesday morning, but am
not anticipating widespread problems at this time.
In the wake of the shortwave, ceilings are expected to recover to
VFR conditions in the afternoon. All of the models are indicating
an increase in the pressure gradient during the afternoon hours,
so bumped up the winds and added gusts at all locations. The windy
conditions will continue through the evening as low pressure moves
along the slow moving boundary in extreme eastern IA.
Introduced predominant light rain, and MVFR ceilings/visibility,
late Tuesday evening - in the 03-05Z time frame - along and west
of the I-55 corridor. The GFS seems to be quick with its
advancement of the rain Tuesday evening, and the NAM might be a
bit slow, so went with a compromise of the two for timing the rain.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Forecast concerns today are the main precipitation (pcpn)
producing cold front on Wednesday, and a minor front again on
Saturday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.
Morning upper air shows upper level jet diving south along west US
coast, with a west southwest jet from northern Mexico into MO/IL.
Surface data depicts frontal zone already into central plains,
will stream of moisture from the gulf ahead of the front into MS
River valley. 925mb and 850mb data depicts this flow well, with
good low level jet pushing moisture toward region. Wetern US jet
flow progged to move shortwave into the plains by Tuesday, then
getting the frontal boundary moving. Prog of the frontal movement
and approach of upper system from the west results in a delay of
pcpn entering central IL later in the day Tuesday. Best chances of
pcpn then on Tuesday night through Wednesday, tapering off
Wednesday night. Adjusted QPF slightly with combination of HPCQPF
12z and 18z, adjusting slightly down amounts a bit. Resultant
total storm QPF still in the 1 to 1.3 inch range in the eastern
1/3 of central IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
High pressure moves in late part of week and then a second cold
front moves through Saturday. Moisture limited with this system,
and so should come through mainly dry over CWA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
The 20Z water vapor imagery shows a upper level trough progressing
east through the plains into the upper Midwest and MS river valley.
Weak ridging was noted over the inter-mountain west with another
shortwave trough approaching the pacific northwest coast. At the
surface, a cool and much dryer ridge of high pressure has settled
into the central plains.
For tonight and Thursday, dry and cool weather is expected to
persist as the surface ridge keeps dry air over the forecast area.
Additionally there is no obvious wave within the northwest flow
aloft to suggest any forcing for precip. The low level saturation
that has allowed the STRATOCU deck to linger over eastern KS through
the afternoon is expected to eventually mix out and/or move east.
Latest visible satellite seems to support the RAP and HRRR PROGS of
the low level saturation dissipating. So think tonight will
eventually become mostly clear. Am a little concerned about the
formation of fog overnight since the boundary layer moisture has not
mixed out and cross over temps are 3 to 5 degrees above the forecast
min temps. The one thing against a good radiational fog is that the
models keep the center of the surface ridge over western KS and the
winds never go calm with lower dewpoint temps advecting in from the
west through the night. Think this may be enough to limit any fog
development to the favored low spots near bodies of water where the
winds are most likely to be light and variable. Thursday should be
sunny with a dry northwest flow aloft and the surface ridge still
over eastern KS. Because of this there does not look to be a lot of
low level warm air advection tomorrow so highs may struggle to warm
into the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
Winds and cloud cover should steadily increase late Thursday night
into Friday on the south end of a rather potent wave moving east
through the Dakotas. Clouds will be of the high variety with still
dry low to mid levels, limiting any precipitation chances. Specifics
on how fast and thick the clouds are Tuesday night will play a large
role in how cool temps will fall as southwest winds ramp up just off
the surface through the night. Expect winds and clouds to hold off
the longest in the south and east for the coolest temps there. A
quite windy Friday remains to be expected, though the strongest
winds may be a bit farther east, with near advisory levels possible
for much of the area. Overnight and early day warm air advection
should push temps well into the 60s. Elevated fire danger is still
anticipated in the warm, dry, and windy boundary layer. The modified
Pacific cold front with the Dakotas wave sinks in late Friday night
into Saturday and should bring little cooling and much lighter
winds.
Zonal flow aloft becomes more northwesterly by Monday as an upper
trof off the west coast deepens. Modest moisture return in
isentropic lift may still be enough for a few showers Monday night
into Tuesday. The main periods of question are for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are in rather strong agreement
with a shortwave diving south into the Northern Plains and western
Great Lakes Tuesday and on southeast through the mid Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The source region of the airmass
is northern Alaska and Yukon, but does linger for 12-24 hours in
southern Canada before coming into the CONUS, and snowpack in this
area does not appear to be now or look likely to increase much
before its arrival. Still, the operational runs drop 850mb temps
well below 0 C with its passage and suggest one of the coldest days
of the cold season so far. The ensembles show a rather large spread
in temps and height fields however, and this is not unexpected with
this smaller scale wave coming through a somewhat complex pattern.
Will suggest a cooling trend and some chance for liquid
precipitation at this point but confidence is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 524 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MVFR at FOE will dissipate very close to 00Z, with VFR expected
thereafter. The one exception is some potential for patchy
shallow fog near TAF sites, mainly MHK and TOP, mainly between 10Z
and 13Z, although confidence in timing is low. Outside of fog
potential, expect mostly clear skies through the TAF period.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
...Updated Aviation section...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper air analysis, and nearly every model reviewed, showed an
upper level trough from eastern Montana to eastern Arizona late
Monday evening. There was an upper level jet at the 250mb level
at 00z, running from about the Baja California area northeastward
right through Kansas and on towards southern Minnesota. This jet
was around 120kts for much of that defined area. Wind speeds near
Kansas settle down to near the 40 to 50kt range at the 500mb
level. There was a 500mb cut off low over central Manitoba,
Canada, with a broad trough back toward southern California. The
low pressure system over Manitoba was even more developed at the
700mb level. The zero isotherm at 700mb was from central Iowa
southwest to northwestern Kansas, then it looped northwesterly
into Northern Colorado. The deep, low pressure system was stacked
nearly vertical down to the 850mb level. There was elevated 850mb
moisture from southwestern Oklahoma through central Kansas. The
lower level flow over the plains was basically southeast,
producing an upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Nearly every model that was looked at, from the HRRR and RUC13, to
the NAM and NamDNG5, to the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS models, showed the
large upper trough approaching western Kansas from the west today.
The models also showed a surface front over southwestern Kansas
moving north this morning this morning as a warm front to near I-70,
then turning back toward the south as a cold front this afternoon.
This frontal boundary will provide plenty of low level lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms today as well as isentropic assent
conditions, and the upper trough will supply plenty of upper level
lift across most of western Kansas. Therefore, high level Pops are
warranted, and nearly all of southwestern Kansas will get some
beneficial rain. Temperatures are a bit challenging. Since we will
be socked in with lower ceilings, I did lower max temperatures
today a couple of degrees, which is more in line with the MET and
MAV guidance products. Besides, our WFO neighbors to our northwest
and west were lower than we had for max temperatures today.
The precipitation should lighten up and become more of a light rain
event around sundown, and then quickly exit to the east. The upper
trough will be moving at a pretty good pace, and the clouds will
leave just as fast. Very cold air is set to enter western Kansas
tonight, and the I expect a hard freeze in a few counties which have
not had a Hard Freeze Warning as of yet. Some spots in my 7 county
Warning have experienced a hard freeze, but not perhaps the entire
county. To the east of the Hard Freeze Warning area, the later
departing precip and clouds will delay cooling as well. Therefore,
lows in LaCrosse and Dodge City areas will be near 30F, with only
mid 30s in the Comanche and Barber county areas. Another day,
perhaps not too far out, will take care of the Hard Freeze warnings
for Dodge and eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper trough axis will be shifted onto the eastern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. As a result low level (850 mb level ECMWF
fields show this) warm air advection and downslope winds will
return to western and central Kansas. Temperatures will be
rebounding from several degrees below zero especially from Hays to
Liberal and westward, so despite warm advection and adiabatic
warming, the heating will be limited. The most sensible models
forecast low to mid 50`s by afternoon with breezy winds and strong
insolation. Surface high pressure then builds southward into Texas
leaving Kansas in the northern edge of the anticyclone. By Thursday
lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains leading
to the development of southerly winds across the area and warm
advection in the boundary layer. A second shortwave will dive
through Nebraska late Friday night, bring a fast moving cold front
over the area again. By the weekend the polar jet lifts to the
northern tier of states in a zonal pattern before buckling by Monday or
Tuesday and forming an amplified ridge across the western 1/3 of
the country. This pattern adds confidence to the current forecast of
dry with a warming trend through the 60`s and increasingly mild
overnights (40`s or generally above freezing) early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Rain showers and stratus will continue at DDC, GCK, and HYS
through the early evening hours. This will result in LIFR/IFR
flight category. By early evening, the low stratus will begin to
scatter out with ceiling expected to rise through the MVFR
category. A cold front will push through during the 20-21Z time
frame with an abrupt shift in winds to the north-northwest at 18
to 22 knots sustained. A few gusts around 30 knots will likely
occur for the first couple of hours after the frontal passage late
in the afternoon. VFR flight category is expected by late in the
evening as total cloud cover starts to scatter out with subsidence
starting to take over as the entire storm system begins to move
away from western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 30 52 29 61 / 70 10 0 0
GCK 25 52 27 60 / 40 0 0 0
EHA 28 53 31 62 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 30 53 27 63 / 50 0 0 0
HYS 28 51 28 59 / 70 0 0 0
P28 36 53 30 62 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ043-
044-063-076-077-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
537 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper air analysis, and nearly every model reviewed, showed an
upper level trough from eastern Montana to eastern Arizona late
Monday evening. There was an upper level jet at the 250mb level
at 00z, running from about the Baja California area northeastward
right through Kansas and on towards southern Minnesota. This jet
was around 120kts for much of that defined area. Wind speeds near
Kansas settle down to near the 40 to 50kt range at the 500mb
level. There was a 500mb cut off low over central Manitoba,
Canada, with a broad trough back toward southern California. The
low pressure system over Manitoba was even more developed at the
700mb level. The zero isotherm at 700mb was from central Iowa
southwest to northwestern Kansas, then it looped northwesterly
into Northern Colorado. The deep, low pressure system was stacked
nearly vertical down to the 850mb level. There was elevated 850mb
moisture from southwestern Oklahoma through central Kansas. The
lower level flow over the plains was basically southeast,
producing an upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Nearly every model that was looked at, from the HRRR and RUC13, to
the NAM and NamDNG5, to the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS models, showed the
large upper trough approaching western Kansas from the west today.
The models also showed a surface front over southwestern Kansas
moving north this morning this morning as a warm front to near I-70,
then turning back toward the south as a cold front this afternoon.
This frontal boundary will provide plenty of low level lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms today as well as isentropic assent
conditions, and the upper trough will supply plenty of upper level
lift across most of western Kansas. Therefore, high level Pops are
warranted, and nearly all of southwestern Kansas will get some
beneficial rain. Temperatures are a bit challenging. Since we will
be socked in with lower ceilings, I did lower max temperatures
today a couple of degrees, which is more in line with the MET and
MAV guidance products. Besides, our WFO neighbors to our northwest
and west were lower than we had for max temperatures today.
The precipitation should lighten up and become more of a light rain
event around sundown, and then quickly exit to the east. The upper
trough will be moving at a pretty good pace, and the clouds will
leave just as fast. Very cold air is set to enter western Kansas
tonight, and the I expect a hard freeze in a few counties which have
not had a Hard Freeze Warning as of yet. Some spots in my 7 county
Warning have experienced a hard freeze, but not perhaps the entire
county. To the east of the Hard Freeze Warning area, the later
departing precip and clouds will delay cooling as well. Therefore,
lows in LaCrosse and Dodge City areas will be near 30F, with only
mid 30s in the Comanche and Barber county areas. Another day,
perhaps not too far out, will take care of the Hard Freeze warnings
for Dodge and eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper trough axis will be shifted onto the eastern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. As a result low level (850 mb level ECMWF
fields show this) warm air advection and downslope winds will
return to western and central Kansas. Temperatures will be
rebounding from several degrees below zero especially from Hays to
Liberal and westward, so despite warm advection and adiabatic
warming, the heating will be limited. The most sensible models
forecast low to mid 50`s by afternoon with breezy winds and strong
insolation. Surface high pressure then builds southward into Texas
leaving Kansas in the northern edge of the anticyclone. By Thursday
lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains leading
to the development of southerly winds across the area and warm
advection in the boundary layer. A second shortwave will dive
through Nebraska late Friday night, bring a fast moving cold front
over the area again. By the weekend the polar jet lifts to the
northern tier of states in a zonal pattern before buckling by Monday or
Tuesday and forming an amplified ridge across the western 1/3 of
the country. This pattern adds confidence to the current forecast of
dry with a warming trend through the 60`s and increasingly mild
overnights (40`s or generally above freezing) early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Numerous thunderstorms with ceilings between 400-1000 ft will
continue between KDDC and KHYS this morning. A cold front will move
into the Terminals in the afternoon, bringing a northwest shift in
the wind directions and another round of thunderstorms ahead of the
boundary, especially near HYS and DDC again. With light easterly
upslope flow and a moist boundary layer from recent rains fog
development is possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 30 52 29 / 80 50 10 0
GCK 58 25 52 27 / 80 40 0 0
EHA 65 28 53 31 / 60 30 0 0
LBL 62 30 53 27 / 70 40 0 0
HYS 56 28 51 28 / 90 50 0 0
P28 59 36 53 30 / 70 60 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ043-
044-063-076-077-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
...Updated for the Synopsis and Short Term Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper air analysis, and nearly every model reviewed, showed an
upper level trough from eastern Montana to eastern Arizona late
Monday evening. There was an upper level jet at the 250mb level
at 00z, running from about the Baja California area northeastward
right through Kansas and on towards southern Minnesota. This jet
was around 120kts for much of that defined area. Wind speeds near
Kansas settle down to near the 40 to 50kt range at the 500mb
level. There was a 500mb cut off low over central Manitoba,
Canada, with a broad trough back toward southern California. The
low pressure system over Manitoba was even more developed at the
700mb level. The zero isotherm at 700mb was from central Iowa
southwest to northwestern Kansas, then it looped northwesterly
into Northern Colorado. The deep, low pressure system was stacked
nearly vertical down to the 850mb level. There was elevated 850mb
moisture from southwestern Oklahoma through central Kansas. The
lower level flow over the plains was basically southeast,
producing an upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Nearly every model that was looked at, from the HRRR and RUC13, to
the NAM and NamDNG5, to the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS models, showed the
large upper trough approaching western Kansas from the west today.
The models also showed a surface front over southwestern Kansas
moving north this morning this morning as a warm front to near I-70,
then turning back toward the south as a cold front this afternoon.
This frontal boundary will provide plenty of low level lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms today as well as isentropic assent
conditions, and the upper trough will supply plenty of upper level
lift across most of western Kansas. Therefore, high level Pops are
warranted, and nearly all of southwestern Kansas will get some
beneficial rain. Temperatures are a bit challenging. Since we will
be socked in with lower ceilings, I did lower max temperatures
today a couple of degrees, which is more in line with the MET and
MAV guidance products. Besides, our WFO neighbors to our northwest
and west were lower than we had for max temperatures today.
The precipitation should lighten up and become more of a light rain
event around sundown, and then quickly exit to the east. The upper
trough will be moving at a pretty good pace, and the clouds will
leave just as fast. Very cold air is set to enter western Kansas
tonight, and the I expect a hard freeze in a few counties which have
not had a Hard Freeze Warning as of yet. Some spots in my 7 county
Warning have experienced a hard freeze, but not perhaps the entire
county. To the east of the Hard Freeze Warning area, the later
departing precip and clouds will delay cooling as well. Therefore,
lows in LaCrosse and Dodge City areas will be near 30F, with only
mid 30s in the Comanche and Barber county areas. Another day,
perhaps not too far out, will take care of the Hard Freeze warnings
for Dodge and eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper trough axis will be shifted onto the eastern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. As a result low level (850 mb level ECMWF
fields show this) warm air advection and downslope winds will
return to western and central Kansas. Temperatures will be
rebounding from several degrees below zero especially from Hays to
Liberal and westward, so despite warm advection and adiabatic
warming, the heating will be limited. The most sensible models
forecast low to mid 50`s by afternoon with breezy winds and strong
insolation. Surface high pressure then builds southward into Texas
leaving Kansas in the northern edge of the anticyclone. By Thursday
lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains leading
to the development of southerly winds across the area and warm
advection in the boundary layer. A second shortwave will dive
through Nebraska late Friday night, bring a fast moving cold front
over the area again. By the weekend the polar jet lifts to the
northern tier of states in a zonal pattern before buckling by Monday or
Tuesday and forming an amplified ridge across the western 1/3 of
the country. This pattern adds confidence to the current forecast of
dry with a warming trend through the 60`s and increasingly mild
overnights (40`s or generally above freezing) early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
As moisture continues to move up from central Oklahoma, MVFR cigs
will develop early in this taf period. Toward morning, after about
10Z or 11Z, low ifr cigs are likely to develop along with fog with
vsbys in the 3-4sm range. Right around sunrise, lifr conditions
should develop, with areas of ovc001 and 1sm vsbys. There is a
short wave approaching from the west by mid morning Tuesday, and
light rain will move across the tafs. Cigs will improve to around
ovc020 an the visibility will increase into 6sm or better.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 30 52 29 / 80 50 10 0
GCK 58 25 52 27 / 80 40 0 0
EHA 65 28 53 31 / 60 30 0 0
LBL 62 30 53 27 / 70 40 0 0
HYS 56 28 51 28 / 90 50 0 0
P28 59 36 53 30 / 70 60 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ043-
044-063-076-077-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
640 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS. PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA INTO
FAR ERN UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C(LAKE TEMPS NEAR 8C)
ONLY PROVIDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. RADAR INDICATED
ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES INTO WEST UPPER MI AND S CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...CAA DROPPING 850/700 MB TEMPS TO -9C/-15C AND
GRADUALLY CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR INCREASE IN LES FOR
WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST NORTH OF
M-28 AND OVER THE EAST FROM MUNISING AND SHINGLETON EASTWARD.
THURSDAY...300-310 LOW LEVEL FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF AS A WEAK 850-700 MB TROUGH BRUSHES
THE ERN LAKE WITH CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS(AN INCREASE IN 850-700
MB MOISTURE AND 700 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -18C). EVEN WITH NMRS
SHSN...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEST...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH AND LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
FOR THU NIGHT WILL INITIALLY SEE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NW WINDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY STAY AROUND -8C TO -9C...SO LES IN NORTHWEST WIND
SNOWBELTS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE
LONGER FETCH AND LONGER LASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY MINOR...BUT
SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NERN CWA WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 00Z SAT...CONFINING ANY
REMAINING ISOLATED LES TO NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BY FRI EVENING. SOME
PRECIP MAY BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 00Z SAT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT THE 12/06 GFS AND 00Z/06 ECMWF SHOW MOVING FROM ERN
SD AT 00Z SAT TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z SAT THEN TO ONTARIO E OF
LAKE HURON BY 18Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE...WITH A
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES /MAINLY THE
WEAKER ONE/ SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTER THAT LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...SINCE MAIN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IS WITH PTYPE AND EXACT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. PTYPES LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA /WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN/ TO MOSTLY
RAIN OVER THE ERN CWA DUE TO WARMER AIR COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE WARM...THE WARM LAYER
WILL ALSO BE DRY SO WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SUN. THINK
THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT STILL
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THAT NUMBER.
AFTER THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT...LOW LEVEL AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES WILL MOVE IN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT /MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT SO ENDING TIME IS VERY
UNCERTAIN/. THINK IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF THE BEST
CONDITIONS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SO
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.
SUN THROUGH NEXT WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDER THAN THE GFS IN
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C OVER THE CWA FROM MON NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WED. THE GFS IS COLD AS WELL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -15C FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WED. OF COURSE...LES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
WOULD ALSO LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME POINT...BUT THIS IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE RIGHT
NOW...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE FOR LES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...LAKE
EFFECT -SHSN WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THRU THU MORNING...THOUGH WNW
WIND FLOW WILL FAVOR KCMX MORE THAN KIWD. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE
FLOW AT KSAW SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS JUST A FEW
FLURRIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO VARY BTWN HIGH MVFR AND VFR AT
KCMX/KIWD...WITH KSAW GOING TO PREVAILING VFR THIS EVENING UNDER
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN LAKE HURON WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
QUEBEC THIS EVENING...LEAVING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY TO CROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
HUDSON BAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NW ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOC 999 MB SFC LOW IS HELPING
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO
NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE 140+ KT 250-300 MB JET MOVING OVER ONTARIO AND
800-700 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN UPPER MI
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN
UPPER MI ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT
FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS TROF AND NOSING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES). STRONG 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND 800-700 MB FGEN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS THERMAL GRADIENT AND RAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO
DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANGE FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL FALLS
TO NEGAUNEE. EAST OF THIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY
THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GREATLY LIMITING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 0.50-0.90 INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE WRN CWA AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
8-9/1 THROUGH MUCH OF EVENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF
CRYSTAL FALLS AND NEGAUNEE AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARQUETTE-IRON COUNTIES
WESTWARD EXCLUDING NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
A BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE IWD AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SAW AND CMX SEEING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. SNOW MAY
BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES NEAR IWD TO ALLOW VISIBILITY TO FALL INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...HOWEVER THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ALLOWING CEILINGS TO
DROP WELL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW OBS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
LIFR AT THE IWD AND CMX TAF SITE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
BELOW AT EACH TAF SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO TODAY...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THIS MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
717 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NW ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOC 999 MB SFC LOW IS HELPING
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO
NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE 140+ KT 250-300 MB JET MOVING OVER ONTARIO AND
800-700 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN UPPER MI
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN
UPPER MI ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT
FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS TROF AND NOSING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES). STRONG 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND 800-700 MB FGEN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS THERMAL GRADIENT AND RAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO
DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANGE FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL FALLS
TO NEGAUNEE. EAST OF THIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY
THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GREATLY LIMITING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 0.50-0.90 INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE WRN CWA AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
8-9/1 THROUGH MUCH OF EVENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF
CRYSTAL FALLS AND NEGAUNEE AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARQUETTE-IRON COUNTIES
WESTWARD EXCLUDING NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AND IFR RESPECTIVELY AT KCMX AND KSAW IN RAIN AND DEVELOPING NE
FLOW. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AT KIWD AS COLDER AIR CHANGES
PCPN OVER TO MAINLY SNOW THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO TODAY...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THIS MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NW ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOC 999 MB SFC LOW IS HELPING
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO
NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE 140+ KT 250-300 MB JET MOVING OVER ONTARIO AND
800-700 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN UPPER MI
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN
UPPER MI ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT
FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS TROF AND NOSING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES). STRONG 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND 800-700 MB FGEN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS THERMAL GRADIENT AND RAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO
DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANGE FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL FALLS
TO NEGAUNEE. EAST OF THIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY
THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GREATLY LIMITING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 0.50-0.90 INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE WRN CWA AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
8-9/1 THROUGH MUCH OF EVENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF
CRYSTAL FALLS AND NEGAUNEE AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARQUETTE-IRON COUNTIES
WESTWARD EXCLUDING NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO TODAY...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THIS MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
PRELIMINARY LONG TERM DISCUSSION. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL
BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
SLOWEST. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE
BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY EXIT E
WEDNESDAY. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER
TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF 6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT
18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE
NE THROUGH THE DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK
TO THE FAR E TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR
FINALLY WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY
COOLING TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE BEST/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING
DENDRITIC CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH
HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES DURING THE DAY. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1231 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A COUPLED JET (RIGHT REAR
OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES). A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LIKELY LEADING
TO A SHARP CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OVER THE EAST AND SNOW OVER THE
WEST. TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
FURTHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LIMITED COLD AIR TO PULL SOUTH
AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARMER WATER TEMPS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE REGIONS. THUS...THINKING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IS
COMPLICATED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO HAVE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS A
SITUATION OF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH NEAR SURFACE WARM OR
ISOTHERMAL LAYER...HAVE FOLLOWED 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0
VALUES TO DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR WARMING WILL LIKELY RUN FROM SKANDIA TO IRON
MOUNTAIN.
AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...EXPECT 0.40-1.0 INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH A
FGEN BAND FROM ROUGHLY WATERSMEET TO BARAGA COUNTY. IN THAT
SAME REALM...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS ARE SHIFTING THE QPF
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED FORCING
LOCATIONS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIFT TO BE JUST BELOW THE DGZ WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED QPF
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN SNOW AREAS WOULD EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES AND THAT SITS RIGHT IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME TIME (DUE TO THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING DURING
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -7 TO -9C RANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO DELTA-T VALUES
ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE
7-8KFT RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FORECASTS FOR
THE SNOW BELTS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...SHOWED
DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THEM LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATION OVER THE EAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED OFF SNOW ALOFT FALLING
THROUGH A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...LEANED ON 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR P-TYPE WHICH INDICATES A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. A
LOT OF VARIABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH HOW COLD THE AIR
WILL BE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH MORE THAN
LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
339 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THAT STRETCHES FROM A 1010 MB SFC LOW OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT SHEBOYGAN IN WISCONSIN. SPLAYED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA IS 1025 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WE HAVE SEEN SOME VERY DRY AIR BUILD IN AT THE SFC WITH
THE HIGH...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY IMAGE AT 21Z SHOWS THE
IMPACT OF THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH A NICE DONUT HOLE AROUND THE
MPX RADAR. HOWEVER...REFLECTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RDA IS LOWER
THAN IT IS EAST AND NORTHEAST...SO YOU CAN GET THE SENSE OF HOW THE
ATMO IS QUICKLY MOISTENING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITES.
REGIONAL RADAR RIGHT NOW SHOWS TWO ENHANCED AREAS OF REFLECTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST MODELS SHOW THIS CURRENT TREND OF TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF QPF CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. ONE AREA
CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A BLOB OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT 21Z ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ITS
ASSOCIATED THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE. THE SECOND IS A BAND OF RADAR
RETURNS THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NORTH PLATTE IN CENTRAL
NEB...NORTHEAST THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND CONTINUES ON COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY NORTHEAST TO REDWOOD FALLS/BUFFALO/CAMBRIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY OVER TO THE SPOONER WI AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ENHANCED FGEN ALONG WITH SOME CSI CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THESE TWO PIECES OF FORCING IN SEVERAL OF THE
HI-RES MODELS. FOR INSTANCE...THE 05.18 HRRR SHOWS QPF OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES ACROSS SE MN WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE...A LULL IN TOTAL
QPF FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH HASTINGS WHERE ONLY A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF IS INDICATED...WITH THE CSI BAND SHOWING UP FROM REDWOOD FALLS
THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AND UP TOWARD RICE LAKE WHERE RUN TOTAL QPF IS
UP MORE IN THE 0.5 INCH RANGE THANKS TO THE ENHANCED FGEN/CSI
FORCING. FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...IT IS WHERE THIS FGEN
BAND SETS UP THAT WILL RESULT IN THE 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT
ARE EXPECTED.
COUPLE OF THINGS THAT MAKE THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST DIFFICULT ARE
NARROW NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FGEN BAND /NOT MUCH MORE THAN 50 MILES
WIDE/ ALONG WITH HOW QUICKLY DO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO COOL TO
ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING MANY PLACES IN
THE TWIN CITIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S...IT IS THOSE DEWPOINTS AND
THE ATTENDANT WET BULB TEMPERATURES THAT YOU REALLY NEED TO PAY
ATTENTION TO. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...SFC WEB BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH MEANS AS THE PRECIP EVAPORATES WE WILL
QUICKLY SEE TEMPS FALL OFF TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...WITH A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WEST OF A BLUE EARTH/WASECA/LADYSMITH
LINE SHORTLY AFTER RAIN BEGINS. EAST OF THIS LINE...DEWPS ARE STILL
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS RAPID CHANGEOVER WAS
LITCHFIELD...WHICH FIRST REPORTED RAIN AT 230 PM AND WAS ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW 20 MINUTES LATER.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS FOR WHERE THE 3-5 INCH BAND SETS UP
WAS NOT ALL THAT LARGE...RANGING ON THE 05.12 RUNS FROM BEING
CENTERED ALONG THE HENNEPIN/DAKOTA COUNTY LINE WITH THE NAM AND MORE
ALONG THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE WITH THE GFS/GEM.
HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/ECMWF BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. THE
ONE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WARNING
TYPE SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES/ IS SW MN...WHERE THE SNOW IS
ALREADY FLYING AND THE RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE FGEN BAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LONGEST.
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...THOUGH WOULD SAY THAT
MOST OF MN COULD BE ENDED AROUND 9Z...WITH WI ENDING AT 12Z...ABOUT
3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
FOR AS MUCH FUN AS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON. DID FAVOR THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW TOWARD A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...WHICH RESULTED IN THE COOLEST TEMPS /WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S/ ALONG WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDES
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUNSHINE AND NEAR NOMRAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS LESS SO AND
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPER
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR NOW. STILL
PROVIDES JUST A CHANCE OF MIXED TYPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EVENT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING ON OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT
WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CWA. THE ECWMF IS FASTER WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT DRAWING IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON THIS COLD
AIR INTRUSION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. STILL TIME TO DECIPHER MODEL TRNEDS
WITH THIS OVERALL DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT ALL BUT AXN TO SOME DEGREE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
TAFS...WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM/HOPWRF. THE
GFS/RAP/HRRR/GEM HAVE SHIFTED NW SOME WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
BAND...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW NW OF MSP/RNH. FOR
CLOUDS...LOOKING AT WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN DOWN IN ERN
NEB/WRN IA...GFSLAMP CIG FORECAST IS WAY TO OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
CIG FORECAST...INSTEAD STUCK CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXISTING TAFS
HAD...WHICH MATCH UP BETTER WITH WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TO
THE SW. ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE IN THE CIG DEPARTMENT WAS TO DELAY
THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO A RAP TIMING. FOR PRECIP END...IF
ANYTHING THESE TAFS MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THE SNOW/MVFR CIGS A
LITTLE BE TOO LONG...AS DRYING WILL BE COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST...WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF WI BY 18Z WED.
KMSP...STUCK WITH CONTINUITY WITH THESE TAFS...BUT IF THE
GFS/HRRR/RAP END UP BEING CORRECT...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL COME
CLOSER TO 3Z...WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WINDOW ONLY BEING A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONG. CURRENT TAF STICKS CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM 1Z TO 4Z...BUT
IF THE GFS IDEA COMES TO FRUITION...THE SNOW TOTAL WILL BE MORE
LIKE 1 INCH...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR
CONFINED MORE TO THE 3-5Z WINDOW. BASED ON CIGS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN
IA...CURRENT TAF CIG FORECAST LOOKS MORE REALISTIC THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING WITH THE GFSLAMP. WE MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS COME IN WITH
THE END OF THE SNOW...WHICH MAY HAPPEN A BIT SOONER THAN WHAT THE
18Z TAF HAS...BUT DOES LOOK GOOD TO SEE SKC SKIES BY WED
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
EYES ARE ON THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM ON TRACK TO AFFECT
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SAID TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...WHEN AN AREA OF IMPRESSIVE 700MB 2D FRONTOGENESIS IS
ALSO PROGGED TO BE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI...PER ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...NAMELY TIMING THE
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION. DO THINK PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN AT ONSET. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE TO
BE KNOCKING ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE METRO AREA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WI
NOT FULLY OCCURRING UNTIL BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE FAR
EASTERN CWA /I.E. EAU CLAIRE/ WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A FULL TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AND OMEGA
IN THE KEY DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY
AMOUNTS /3-5 INCHES/ FROM SOUTHWEST MN NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI.
EXPECT THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 7 PM CST THIS EVE AND 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PV
BOOT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPLIES THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR
SNOWFALL GENERATION.
IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM HAVE LED TO DENSE FOG OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL MN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE /NEARING ZERO FEET/ EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MID MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHTS STORM...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. ZONAL FLOW ALSO HAS A TENDENCY TO HAVE
MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPS FROM WARM TO COLD. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE AREAS NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL FROM
HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 40 BY MID NOVEMBER...PLUS OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S BY THIS TIME FRAME. THIS MILDER FLOW WILL
LIKELY PLAY HAVOC ON PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY OSCILLATE ACROSS MN FOR EVERY WX SYSTEM THAT MOVES THRU.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG WITH QUICK BURST OF LIGHT QPF AMTS.
LOOKING AT THE NAO AND PNA /NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION & PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN FOR MID NOVEMBER INDICATES A MORE NEGATIVE
TREND FOR THE PNA...AND ONLY A SLIGHT POSITIVE FOR THE NAO. THESE
TWO PATTERN TOGETHER FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST HAVE A TENDENCY TO
PRODUCE MILDER TEMPS...BUT WETTER CONDS. THIS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE WARMER AND WETTER
CONDS TO OCCUR ACROSS MN/WI BY MID NOVEMBER.
IN ADDITION TO THE NAO/PNA PATTERN CHANGES...THE MJO /MADDEN
JULIAN OSCILLATION AND ITS CORRELATION TO THE CHANGES IN THE
TROPICS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PHASE 1. THIS BASICALLY MEANS...AND
HIGHLY BASED ON THE CHANGES IN THE MJO...THAT OUR REGION HAS A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/WETTER TREND BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. FOR MORE IN
DEPTH INFORMATION ON THE MJO PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING LINK.
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRECIP/CWLINK/MJO/MJO.SHTML. ALL
LETTERS ARE LOWER CASE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CW AND MJO AFTER
CWLINK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT ALL BUT AXN TO SOME DEGREE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
TAFS...WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM/HOPWRF. THE
GFS/RAP/HRRR/GEM HAVE SHIFTED NW SOME WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
BAND...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW NW OF MSP/RNH. FOR
CLOUDS...LOOKING AT WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN DOWN IN ERN
NEB/WRN IA...GFSLAMP CIG FORECAST IS WAY TO OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
CIG FORECAST...INSTEAD STUCK CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXISTING TAFS
HAD...WHICH MATCH UP BETTER WITH WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TO
THE SW. ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE IN THE CIG DEPARTMENT WAS TO DELAY
THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO A RAP TIMING. FOR PRECIP END...IF
ANYTHING THESE TAFS MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THE SNOW/MVFR CIGS A
LITTLE BE TOO LONG...AS DRYING WILL BE COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST...WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF WI BY 18Z WED.
KMSP...STUCK WITH CONTINUITY WITH THESE TAFS...BUT IF THE
GFS/HRRR/RAP END UP BEING CORRECT...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL COME
CLOSER TO 3Z...WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WINDOW ONLY BEING A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONG. CURRENT TAF STICKS CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM 1Z TO 4Z...BUT
IF THE GFS IDEA COMES TO FRUITION...THE SNOW TOTAL WILL BE MORE
LIKE 1 INCH...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR
CONFINED MORE TO THE 3-5Z WINDOW. BASED ON CIGS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN
IA...CURRENT TAF CIG FORECAST LOOKS MORE REALISTIC THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING WITH THE GFSLAMP. WE MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS COME IN WITH
THE END OF THE SNOW...WHICH MAY HAPPEN A BIT SOONER THAN WHAT THE
18Z TAF HAS...BUT DOES LOOK GOOD TO SEE SKC SKIES BY WED
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-
091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
538 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUIET/DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTN...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S...WHILE TO THE WEST IN INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 40S. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AS ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION...BEHIND THE TROUGH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND SETTLES ON
TO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT THE SREF IS INDICATING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE RAP OR OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ATTM. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN FCST WITH WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT...VERY
LITTLE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR CWA AND COLD/SUB FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS BEING SAID...IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPS WITH DAYTIME READINGS EDGING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
IN TERMS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BASIC ELEMENTS SUCH AS
TEMPERATURES/POPS...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS CURRENTLY A SPLIT
DECISION...FEATURING RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MON-WED
TIME FRAME. AT ANY RATE...THE ONLY PERIODS CURRENTLY FEATURING
ONLY SLIGHT...STILL-HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TUESDAY
IN THE EAST/SOUTH AND THEN WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.
GETTING INTO GREATER DETAIL AND STARTING WITH THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...UPPER FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE LOCALLY AS THE AREA
LIES IN BETWEEN A NORTHEAST CONUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EFFECT OF THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
BE HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH MOST AREAS
10+ MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PASSING CLOUDS AND BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO SHARPLY...AND KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
A BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BUT DID NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 32-35 AND SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY/GREELEY/WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING MAJOR ISSUES WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT THANKS
TO INCREASING BREEZES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT WILL BE ONGOING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...AS AGAIN EXPECT PLENTY OF
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE MT/WY AREA ON
SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5-10 MPH LIGHTER
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN IN THE WINDIER SOUTHEAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...OR
5-10 PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECT A NICE UPWARD BUMP FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. HAVE AIMED MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S RANGE...WITH MID 60S MOST
FAVORED IN KS ZONES AND THE DAWSON-FURNAS CORRIDOR IN THE WEST.
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES THIS IS ABOUT A 5-DEGREE UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON FRI NIGHT...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT NUDGES
INTO THE THE CWA...SIGNALED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT TO FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES. AGAIN...SUPPOSE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
CONTRIBUTION FROM MELTED SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE VISIBILITY
PRODUCT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/SREF ARE OVER-DOING THINGS...AND
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOG-FREE FOR NOW. CHANGED FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS LITTLE WITH MOST PLACES MID-30S.
SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH
GENERALLY SUNNIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS THE PRIMARY UPPER JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER. ON SATURDAY...BREEZES WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND
10 MPH FROM THE NORTH...AND THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH SATURDAY HIGHS RANGING
FROM LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...AND SUNDAY MID-UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
STEADILY DECREASES ALTHOUGH THAT BEING SAID...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS APPEAR IN STORE. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK. ALTHOUGH THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD 50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
PROVIDES A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COLDER MAINLY IN THE 40S. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF SOME LOW
STRATUS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NUISANCE LIGHT DRIZZLE...SO
THIS BEARS WATCHING. GETTING INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALONG A TRACK FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS TO EASTERN KS/MO. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO PASS
JUST EAST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT...NUISANCE PRECIP POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...STUCK WITH THE
INITIALIZED BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT RAIN ONLY
IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NO MENTION OF
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMP-WISE TUESDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HIGHS...AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MID 40S TO MID
50S...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF CAME IN 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW IN ALL AREAS...BUT THIS WAS LARGELY BASED OFF THE 00Z
ECMWF...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST RUN HAS COME IN DRY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES THE MAJORITY OF
FORCING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH IT. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE A COLDER TURN...ITS JUST A MATTER
OF HOW MUCH SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AIMS FOR A MID 30S-LOW 40S
RANGE IN MOST SPOTS...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS COLDER WITH MID 30S
MOST ALL PLACES. PLENTY TO SORT OUT HERE IN THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MVFR SKY COVER HAS ERODED/MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINAL. ANY
ADDITIONAL SKY COVER WILL BE SCANT IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SREF AND
NAM DMO MODEL OUTPUTS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG...BUT MOST
MODEL DATA DO NOT PREDICT FOG AND THIS IS QUITE AN UNLIKELY
SCENARIO FOR FOG WITH A WEST COMPONENT OF WIND AND NO SNOW COVER
NEAR OR AROUND THE TERMINAL.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
305 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW
IN OUR W/NW BY MID/LATE MORNING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF AN INCH WHILE OTHER REPORTS OF OVER ONE INCH
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH AND MADE THE SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE GOTHENBURG AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO
ARCADIA/ORD/GREELEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAP HAS BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING/SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WELL AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NEB. THE MID LEVEL H7 CIRCULATION TENDS TO INTERMITTENTLY CLOSE
AS IT LIFTS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND/PSEUDO
DEFORMATION REMAINING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THIS BEING
SAID...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD.
AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH...THE LINGERING RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GENOA TO HASTINGS TO
FRANKLIN FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NW/W CWA...WHERE CURRENTLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SNOW
BAND SETS UP THIS EVENING. THE LAST SNOW REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE
ORD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAD A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF JUST OVER
ONE INCH. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE
PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ENDED PCPN BY 06Z...BUT OUR FAR
NORTH MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION
NEXT TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE VERY FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRIDAY AND WITH WINDS ALOFT OF OVER 40 KTS
EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH
SOUTH WINDS THE GFS BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS EAST WINDS AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE WENT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS TIME AND HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RAIN
WILL MIX WITH SNOW IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE
IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY BEFORE IMPROVING TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039-
040-046-060.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST PER
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOME LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE PUSHED PAST 1 INCH...AS IT PRODUCED DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH TAPPED DECENT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS/WAS DESPITE ANEMIC UPPER HGT FALLS...20-40M AT
H5. SHORT TERM QPF FROM 4KM WRF/RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO LIFT
PRECIP ENE WITH IT EXITING SWRN ZONES NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF DWINDLING PRECIP
PROBABLY LINGERING OVER NERN NEBR ALL NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
TRACE FLURRIES YET IN THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT STLT/RADAR
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE
ALONE FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON SERN
EDGE OF ADVISORY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH APPROACHING NIGHTFALL...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE EASILY TO COME BY BUT MOST
ADDITIONAL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...OR LESS...AFT 00Z. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY MAKE IT TO OMAHA/LINCOLN BUT IT APPEARS COLDER
AIR SUPPORTING THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE CITIES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM IS MAINLY TEMPERATURE
DRIVEN AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. DID BUMP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON WED WHERE GROUND
WILL BE ABSENT ANY SNOW AS WIND DIRECTION...NW SHIFTING TO WSW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. BUT IF CLOUDS FAIL TO CLEAR...WHICH
WAS NOT EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE A DWINDLING IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NORTH...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN PREV FORECAST
AND LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CHANGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT
...ESPECIALLY E...AS RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET UP TOO LATE TO
KEEP MANY TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 20S THAT GUIDANCE
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAVE LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH GREAT VARIATION SEEN BTWN THE ECM/GFS/CMC. THUS MAKING TEMP
FCST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
AS OF NOW...LATEST ECM PROGS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM
ZONAL TO DEVELOPING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS...ONE OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUS FAVORING A COLD
PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER BASICALLY
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE THE CMC DIGS AN UPPER
TROF THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. COMPARISON
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS BTWN THE 05/00Z ECMMOS AND 05/12Z MEX CLEARLY
SHOWING THE DISTINCTION. HIGHS PROGGED NEXT TUES AT KOMA...ECM MOS
36/MEX 49. GIVEN THAT THE ECM HAS PROVEN TO OUT PERFORM ON A REGULAR
BASIS...FEEL COMPELLED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION.
AS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES...WILL AGAIN OPT TO GO WITH THE
DRIER ECM.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER.
SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 18Z WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA BY 01Z. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END TOWARD 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030-031.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR SEVERAL HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING BY 14-18Z. BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO IFR BY 17-20Z. COULD ALSO SEE THE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT KOFK BY 19-21Z...BECOMING ALL SNOW THERE BY 23Z. COULD SEE
THE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AT KOMA/KLNK BY 06/04-06.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BIG QUESTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL BE WHETHER ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP SOUTH OF
I80 WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
4-5000 FEET WERE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. BEST TIMING
WOULD BE AFTER 4 AM...THUS MADE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
DOUBT ANY PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY NOON ON TUESDAY...WITH LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE SLOWER ONSET...WHICH
WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NE/SD BORDER MAY BE ALL SNOW FROM THE ONSET...AND NE/KS/MO
BORDER REGION WILL BE ALL RAIN.
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ONE QUESTION WOULD BE WHETHER THE NORFOLK AND
WAYNE METRO AREAS WOULD NEED TO BE INCLUDED. RIGHT NOW...WE ONLY
HAVE ONE TO TWO INCHES FORECAST FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES. 00Z NAM
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER GFS/SREF STILL
INDICATING SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE NEXT FORECASTER
LOOK AT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE 3 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
DEWALD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHERE
WILL THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE...AMOUNTS...AND IF HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED.
THE 12Z H5 PATTERN HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND A
SECOND TRAILING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DID DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH WINDS HAD MADE IT TO NEBRASKA CITY AND RED OAK BY
20Z. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TROF HAD SHIFTED WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND IOWA.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT H5 TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM MONTANA
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ORGANIZES OVER COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. 12Z NAM/GFS BEGIN
TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AN H7/H85 40KT SPEED MAX TRAVELS FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENT MID LEVEL TROF. BY
18Z THE NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPERATURES AND POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST OF NELIGH TO WAYNE...WITH
THE NELIGH TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE AREA BEING A TRANSITION ZONE DURING
THE DAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AND RAIN LIKELY FARTHER
SOUTH. SOME INSTABILITY DOES WORK INTO THE SOUTH AND WITH SUCH A
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THUNDER EVEN FARTHER
NORTH.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE A SOLID 3 TO 4 G/KG AND HAVE WATER
EQUIVALENTS BETWEEN .6 AND .8 ON AN INCH. THE GROUND IS STILL
WARM...HOWEVER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS MENTIONED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOME LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO A
DAVID CITY...MACY LINE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW AREA BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES IS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE A BAND OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ALIGNED FROM WAHOO THROUGH TEKAMAH TOWARD HARLAN IOWA.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN IOWA DURING THE
EVENING...AND DIMINISHING FURTHER AFTER 06Z. AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS...CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A RAIN SNOW
MIX AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WORKS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND SURFACE LOW BOTH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH...IN CASE IT STARTS TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH AND
BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE DRY COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS A COOL-DOWN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD THEN MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016-017-030.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER ROUGHLY
THE PAST 18 HOURS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM HOWEVER THESE WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS A POTENT DRY SLOT SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE AREA. A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND TEMPS ARE PLUMMETING ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LATEST HRRR AND RUC
GUIDANCE WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OR A SMALL
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES BETWEEN RED RIVER
AND RATON PASS...AND FROM NEAR DES MOINES/CAPULIN EAST TO CLAYTON FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE FOCUSED CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER COLORADO AND EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY AIR INVADES THE STATE. 20Z OBS ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND AROUND
SW COLORADO ALREADY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS. CLEAR SKIES ON
TAP WILL LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 10F WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUN MAKING IT FEEL
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE EVEN STRONGER
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS WITHIN THE ABQ METRO ON THE ORDER OF 20+
DEGREES BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
A FAST MOVING DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS COLORADO AND
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD TO
MODIFYING TEMPS WITH READINGS NOW 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. NEUTRAL TO
VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
BY WARM ADVECTION AS THE FLOWS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK VERY NICE AS TEMPS MODIFYING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
A FEW TO 11 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
FARTHER EAST...READINGS SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 11 DEGREES DUE TO THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE BETTER VENTILATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
A WEAK LEE TROUGH. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW TO 9 DEGREES...EXCEPT FROM
ALBUQUERQUE TO GALLUP...FARMINGTON AND CHAMA WHERE A BROAD AREA OF
POOR VENTILATION SHOULD PERSIST AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
CAUSING WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 20-35 KTS WHILE
A SHARP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT VENTILATION AREAWIDE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE BREEZIEST IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 9 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. POOR VENTILATION MAY ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN A BIT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN AFTER SATURDAYS BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THE PLAINS.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPIRING WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPDATED MAX/MIN
TEMPS FOR FIRST 2 PERIODS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP AS SEEN ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS TODAY BEFORE THE
DEEPEST DRY AIR SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE PLAINS AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. A FEW BRIEF STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BNDRY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 19 50 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 11 47 14 57 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 16 49 18 56 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 52 14 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 11 50 13 57 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 13 52 14 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 19 53 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 20 66 20 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 14 45 12 52 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 47 28 54 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 23 47 27 53 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 16 49 14 55 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 10 37 12 45 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 43 12 52 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 16 47 14 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 19 50 21 57 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 53 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 45 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 53 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 57 21 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 59 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 57 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 57 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 59 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 50 26 57 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 52 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 51 13 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 23 48 24 57 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 53 25 58 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 58 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 54 28 61 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 18 52 26 57 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 55 23 58 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 56 22 61 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 20 52 26 58 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 53 32 60 / 30 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 51 30 58 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 30 58 30 65 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 59 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 30 59 30 66 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 57 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 62 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 30 59 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 31 53 28 59 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
915 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF RAIN. IT WILL TURN COOLER THURSDAY WITH RAIN SHOWERS
FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKES. AS
THE POOL OF AIR COOLS MORE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL FORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW OF THIS LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OVERNIGHT.
RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS LOCATIONS WEST OF
ROCHESTER...WHICH IS GENERALLY WELL ALIGNED WITH MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR TO RGEM/NAM MODELS. ONE AREA OF NOTE IS THE
RADAR RETURNS ON THE SOUTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL...WHICH ARE THE
LIKELY RESULT OF UPSLOPING. THIS WAS NOT RESOLVED AS WELL BY MODEL
GUIDANCE...WITH SOME MODELS MERGING THIS UPSLOPE GENERATED
PRECIPITATION WITH THE STEADY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAD TO ADJUST TIMING A BIT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ACTUALLY A LLJ...WHICH
IS 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB ON THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING. THIS WILL
INCREASE PWATS TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
LIFT...COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL YIELD A
PERIOD OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 50 KNOT WINDS JUST 2K FEET
OFF THE DECK. HOWEVER AS THE RAIN SATURATED THE LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY WEDGE A COOLER...AND MORE STABLE LAYER WILL FORM WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT THESE STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THIS SAID...JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THERE COULD BE GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN THE NEAR +2SD PWATS CROSSING THE REGION ALONG WITH AMPLE
SYNOPTIC LIFT EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT TO RANGE FROM AROUND
A HALF AN INCH UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. GREATEST TOTALS
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE ADDED UPSLOPE FACTORS MAY YIELD NEAR AN
INCH OF RAINFALL BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE OVERNIGHT...SUCH THAT THE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD BE JUST EXITING THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP
DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY DAYS END. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION...ABOUT A 24
HOUR CHANGE FROM +8C TO -5C WILL MAINTAIN BRISK WINDS ALONG WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THIS OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S WILL NOT RISE
MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OR SO TOMORROW FOR OUR HIGHS.
A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE
WILL AGAIN DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND AS WIND SHEAR DIMINISHES LAKE EFFECT RAIN
WILL FALL EAST OF BOTH GREAT LAKES...FAVORED OVER THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND FROM THE TUG HILL AND SOUTHWARD INTO OSWEGO COUNTY. A
SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY DROP A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE. OUTSIDE OF THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -8C OVERNIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WHICH SHOULD FOCUS
MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF METRO BUFFALO INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT...LOOK
FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
WHILE CLOSER TO THE LAKES IT SHOULD STAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...EVEN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...PERHAPS AN INCH. HOWEVER...DEEPER
MOISTURE...BETTER OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AND A LONGER FETCH COULD
LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATION OF A FEW INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL.
THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DISAPPEAR AS
DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. A COMPLETE DISAPPEARING ACT IS PROBABLY NOT
LIKELY IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS...WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS SILL
ABOVE 8K FEET AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD AT -5C TO
-6C COMING IN OFF THE LAKES.
LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
WAVE ENDS THAT ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A DRY DAY FOR SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION IN A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLIPPER WAVE TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL DRAG A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS
FEATURE LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY A LIMITED RISK FOR SHOWERS
ALONG IT. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS NEARLY A WHOLE DAY
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL PENETRATE...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXISTS FOR MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE DEPTH OF
COLD AIR AND MOISTURE WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN HOW ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SCENARIO PLAYS OUT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR CIGS TO LOWER AS
DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS FENDS OFF THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...AS THIS
LAYER SATURATES...EXPECT MVFR VSBY/CIGS IN RAINFALL TO SPREAD FROM
W-E ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
EXPECT THE LOWEST CIGS TO BE NEAR THE FRONT...WHERE A PERIOD OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. WITH ONLY A FEW IFR
OBS UPSTREAM...HAVE GENERALLY HEDGED TAFS JUST ABOVE IFR FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW EITHER WAY RIGHT AT
FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT DRIER AIR TO LIFT CIGS ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER. THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT JHW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR/IFR EAST- SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE MVFR IN SHOWERS
MAINLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BASED ON WINDS AT ART/GTB...HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AS WELL.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES ON THE LAKES...THOUGH WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE
NIAGARA RIVER TO END.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BOTH
LAKES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS SEVERAL
BURSTS OF COOLER AIR PASS OVER THE LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
LOZ030.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
SLZ022-024.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
327 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AND
EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST. EARLIER MODEL
RUNS HAD SUGGESTED A MARINE LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER
06Z ACROSS NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVER EASTERN MAINE NOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO THIS HAPPENING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING ANY LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OCEAN MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS
WESTWARD OR INLAND NEAR NYC. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND BY THIS POINT IN THE NIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA BY 06Z. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC WHICH
CAPTURES THIS MOISTURE WELL AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH LOW CLOUDS CLOSER TO 12Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
HI CLDS ARE TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN
DESPITE THE STRONG SFC RDGG. BELIEVE THESE CLDS WILL CONT TO ERODE
AS THE RDG BLDS ALOFT ON TUE. OTR CNCRN OVRNGT IS THE RETURN FLOW
ARND THE BOTTOM OF THE HI AND THE MARINE MOISTURE WITH IT. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE THE DVLPMT OF SOME LOW CLDS OVER THE NEPA ZONES TNGT
WITH THE LL MOISTURE...BUT THE WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT AFT SUNRISE.
THE HI CLDS TO THE WEST AND THE LOW CLDS TO THE SOUTH WILL IMPACT
OVRNGT LOWS AND GRNL XPCT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD 10F HIER TNGT THAN
LAST. MOS GUID IN RSNBLE AGREEMENT IN THE LOWS WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS IN THE LWR 20S BY TUE MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI VERY SLOWLY EDGES EAST THRU WED BUT UPR HGTS CONT TO BLDS
AHD OF THE NEXT WV. AIR WILL CONT TO MODERATE WITH RDGS RCHG INTO
THE UPR 50S AND LWR 60S WED AFTN. MARINE ST TUE MRNG WILL NOT BE A
PRBLM WED AS THE FLOW BECOMES DEEP SWLY PUSHING THAT LL MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST.
FNT APCHS AND PASSES THU. SOME LGT RAIN MAY BRK OUT OVER THE WEST
WED NGT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHD OF THE FNT
ON THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND WLD HAVE THE FNT
PASS THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THU. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA NEARER THE UPR WV...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE
FNT MAY PASS DRY. WILL KEEP IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THU..,.BUT CERTAINLY EVERYONE
WILL SEE SOME RAIN ON THU.
CAA AND DRY AIR IS STRONG ON THU BHD THE FNT...BUT ANY LE SHD WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE SHRT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
325 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST BASED ON LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL RUNS. PREV THINKING ON TRACK AS PER
BLO...
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN ACTIVE
JETSTREAM REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THAT
SAID...EXPECT DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...850
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO NEAR -7C WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A DECENT
RESPONSE FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. QUICK LOOK
AT SEVERAL GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RA/SN MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TOWARDS EARLY FRI MORNING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES INTO THE
REGION...WITH FAIR/DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COMPACT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
EJECT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR
NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM NEARS...WITH MAIN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUN. AS FEATURE ROLES THROUGH...EXPECT RA SHWRS ON SUN BEFORE
PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO A MIX SUN NGT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST
AND LOW LVL S TO SE FLOW. BKN CI DECK WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDA...BUT MVFR DECK PSBL 10-14Z AT AVP. THESE MVFR CIGS SHUD BREAK
UP BY LATE MRNG. EAST WINDS THIS MRNG AT SYR/RME...OTRW SRLY FLOW
10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT AND WED MORN...POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KBGM/KAVP...WITH
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE.
WED AFTN AND NGT...VFR.
THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS (LWR END MVFR/PSBL IFR) SEEM
LIKELY IN SHWRS.
THU NGT AND FRI...MVFR IN MIXED SHOWERS IN NY. AVP VFR.
SAT...RETURN TO VFR REGION-WIDE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1228 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AND
EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST. EARLIER MODEL
RUNS HAD SUGGESTED A MARINE LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER
06Z ACROSS NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVER EASTERN MAINE NOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO THIS HAPPENING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING ANY LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OCEAN MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS
WESTWARD OR INLAND NEAR NYC. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND BY THIS POINT IN THE NIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA BY 06Z. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC WHICH
CAPTURES THIS MOISTURE WELL AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH LOW CLOUDS CLOSER TO 12Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
HI CLDS ARE TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN
DESPITE THE STRONG SFC RDGG. BELIEVE THESE CLDS WILL CONT TO ERODE
AS THE RDG BLDS ALOFT ON TUE. OTR CNCRN OVRNGT IS THE RETURN FLOW
ARND THE BOTTOM OF THE HI AND THE MARINE MOISTURE WITH IT. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE THE DVLPMT OF SOME LOW CLDS OVER THE NEPA ZONES TNGT
WITH THE LL MOISTURE...BUT THE WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT AFT SUNRISE.
THE HI CLDS TO THE WEST AND THE LOW CLDS TO THE SOUTH WILL IMPACT
OVRNGT LOWS AND GRNL XPCT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD 10F HIER TNGT THAN
LAST. MOS GUID IN RSNBLE AGREEMENT IN THE LOWS WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS IN THE LWR 20S BY TUE MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI VERY SLOWLY EDGES EAST THRU WED BUT UPR HGTS CONT TO BLDS
AHD OF THE NEXT WV. AIR WILL CONT TO MODERATE WITH RDGS RCHG INTO
THE UPR 50S AND LWR 60S WED AFTN. MARINE ST TUE MRNG WILL NOT BE A
PRBLM WED AS THE FLOW BECOMES DEEP SWLY PUSHING THAT LL MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST.
FNT APCHS AND PASSES THU. SOME LGT RAIN MAY BRK OUT OVER THE WEST
WED NGT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHD OF THE FNT
ON THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND WLD HAVE THE FNT
PASS THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THU. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA NEARER THE UPR WV...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE
FNT MAY PASS DRY. WILL KEEP IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THU..,.BUT CERTAINLY EVERYONE
WILL SEE SOME RAIN ON THU.
CAA AND DRY AIR IS STRONG ON THU BHD THE FNT...BUT ANY LE SHD WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE SHRT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN ACTIVE
JETSTREAM REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THAT
SAID...EXPECT DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...850
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO NEAR -7C WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A DECENT
RESPONSE FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. QUICK LOOK
AT SEVERAL GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RA/SN MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TOWARDS EARLY FRI MORNING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES INTO THE
REGION...WITH FAIR/DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COMPACT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
EJECT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR
NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM NEARS...WITH MAIN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUN. AS FEATURE ROLES THROUGH...EXPECT RA SHWRS ON SUN BEFORE
PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO A MIX SUN NGT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST
AND LOW LVL S TO SE FLOW. BKN CI DECK WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDA...BUT MVFR DECK PSBL 10-14Z AT AVP. THESE MVFR CIGS SHUD BREAK
UP BY LATE MRNG. EAST WINDS THIS MRNG AT SYR/RME...OTRW SRLY FLOW
10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT AND WED MORN...POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KBGM/KAVP...WITH
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE.
WED AFTN AND NGT...VFR.
THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS (LWR END MVFR/PSBL IFR) SEEM
LIKELY IN SHWRS.
THU NGT AND FRI...MVFR IN MIXED SHOWERS IN NY. AVP VFR.
SAT...RETURN TO VFR REGION-WIDE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
715 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE COAST WILL PRODUCE SOME RAIN OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
THURSDAY CLEARING OUT ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND BRINGING
COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINTAINING DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...LATEST INTERIM MODEL RUNS...ALONG WITH
LATEST SFC AND SAT IMAGERY DATA...ALL INDICATE AN INVERTED SFC
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IE. COASTAL TROF...LYING JUST OFFSHORE FROM
THE COAST OF THE ILM CWA COASTLINE. THE LATEST AND PREFERRED
GFS...ALSO INDICATED BY THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONTINUES TO
ILLUSTRATE ITS PARTIAL ONSHORE MOVEMENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE CAPE
FEAR REGION DURING THE WED PRE-DAWN HOURS. PREVIOUS FORECAST
SHOWED THIS AND SEE NO REASON TO DETOUR FROM PREVIOUS THINKING.
DID HOWEVER...LOWER THE QPF OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE RATHER WEAK
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS. EVEN-THOUGH A SOLID 6+ HRS OF PCPN TO OCCUR
...THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN RW- OR LIGHTER YET...RW--. THE
OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FCST REMAINS IN LINE WITH LOW TEMPS
STAYING IN THE 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF THE ILM
CWA...WITH UPPER 50S WESTERN 1/3RD OF THE FA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...............................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A WONDERFUL EARLY NOVEMBER DAY IN THE
CAROLINAS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS A HORIZONTALLY-CONVERGENT AND
VERTICALLY-ASCENDING FLOW DEVELOPS NEAR A COASTAL TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS TROUGH...EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT AND MAY
ACTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
MILD ATLANTIC AIR STREAMING UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT-LIKE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LIFTED ALONG THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES...LIKELY
YIELDING AROUND ONE-THIRD INCH OF SHOWERY RAIN FROM MYRTLE BEACH...
SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN. ONE
OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM GEORGETOWN AND
MARION THROUGH DILLON AND LUMBERTON. FARTHER INLAND FOR AREAS WEST
OF FLORENCE...THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING
YOU AS VEERING WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB COULD CREATE A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BEFORE THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO PUSH THAT FAR INLAND. I HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
HERE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
IN TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 12Z GFS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS DO
THE LATEST SEVERAL RUC AND HRRR RUNS. THE 12Z NAM REALLY EMPHASES
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST. WHILE SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THERE A WEAK LOW
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JAX...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO BULLISH
CLOSING THIS FEATURE OFF ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
IS ALSO THE FARTHEST WEST WITH ITS QPF MAX COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER
50S INLAND. KEEP IN MIND OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LOWS HAVE
FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE CAPE
FEAR COAST THURS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND DISSIPATE AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURS. THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THURS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL RUN
NORTH FROM THE BRUNSWICK AND CAPE FEAR COAST UP THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA. THE NAM SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH AND PUSHES IT INLAND
FURTHER SO MAY KEEP POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND FOR NOW. THIS AXIS
OF GREATEST PCP THURS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFF SHORE BY
THURS AFTN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOSES SOME OF ITS MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THURS MORNING BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT THURS AFTN. AS
MENTIONED...LOOKS LIKE GREATEST PCP WILL COME EARLIER IN THE DAY
WITH TROUGH ALONG THE COAST...BUT EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH LATE THURS AFTN.
DEEP COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. 850 TEMPS BEGIN TO
PLUMMET THURS AFTN DROPPING FROM AROUND 13C DOWN TO 3C TO 4C BY
FRI MORNING. PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DROP OUT TO A QUARTER OF INCH ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 40S FRI NIGHT IN CAA BEHIND FRONT. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE COOLER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY
BUT THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
THROUGH FRI EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND 60
IN CONTINUED CAA UNDER BRIGHT FALL SUNSHINE. BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRI EVENING AS WINDS DROP
OFF AND CLEAR SKIES EXIST. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOST
PLACES FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE
EXTENDED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF FLAT 5H FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE EAST.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT ALLOW REINFORCING AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ADVECT WEST
TO EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER
THAN A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO DISCUSS DURING NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY CLEAR (ALTHOUGH SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT)...AND
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT SUN-WED WILL FEATURE
HIGHS APPROACHING 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD /WED NIGHT/ AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MUCH COOLER AIR...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ALSO BE DRY. THUS...NO
PRECIP FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...INCREASING LOW CIGS WITH AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CREATE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL CREATE VARYING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW CIGS ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO KILM...CURRENTLY
CREATING IFR...THOUGH VARIABILITY OF LINGERING CLOUD HEIGHTS IS
ALLOWING FOR RESTRICTIONS TO VARY BETWEEN IFR...MVFR...AND VFR.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS LIGHT SHOWERS PROGRESSING ONSHORE AS
WELL. ANTICIPATE THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS TO INCREASE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITIES. DO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY INLAND...CREATING LOWERED RESTRICTIONS AS
SUPPORTED BY LATEST TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS. OVERALL
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IS EXPECTED. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST AS NE
WINDS AOB 5 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND THEN VFR
BY THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BECOMING LIGHT/ISOLATED IN NATURE...MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST..AND THEN
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AOB 12 KTS...BECOMING LIGHT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 PM WEDNESDAY...THE INVERTED SFC TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE...IE. THE COASTAL TROF...LYING PARALLEL TO THE ILM
COASTLINE AND JUST OFFSHORE...IS PROGGED TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE FAVORED GFS...
PARTIALLY PUSHES THE COASTAL TROF ONSHORE ACROSS THE ILM NC
COASTAL COUNTIES...IE. THE CAPE FEAR REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED THIS
IDEOLOGY...RESULTING WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING ESE-SSE AFTER ITS
INLAND PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WEST OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THAT
10-15 KT RANGE WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THAT 3 TO 6 FOOT RANGE...WITH THE 6
FOOTERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR.
SCA CONTINUES THRU THU MORNING ACROSS THE ILM NC WATERS DUE TO
SIG SEAS REMAINING CONDUCIVE.
BORDERLINE SCEC HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ILM SC WATERS TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOLID 3 TO 5 FOOT SIG. SEAS...AND WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.............................................
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC (JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND) HAS MAINTAINED A HEALTHY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THE HIGH IS BREAKING DOWN WHICH HAS CUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALMOST IN HALF OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
COASTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY LINED UP NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SHOULD
APPROACH THE COAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATING IN THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A ZONE OF ENHANCED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST BEHIND OF (EAST
OF) TROUGH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN 4-6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
AREA WATERS TONIGHT... THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD VEER
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS EXCEPT
5 KNOTS STRONGER FOR AREAS THAT ACTUALLY GET INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
INLAND...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UP TO 15 KTS TO START THE DAY ON
THURS. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3 TO 6 FT
INITIALLY BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS WINDS VEER AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THURS NIGHT.
PLENTY OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE A WELL MIXED MARINE
ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING IN DEEPER CAA. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ALONE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT SEAS
WILL SHOOT UP ALSO.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. THE DECREASE IN SPEED AND VEERING OF WINDS LATER FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EXTENDED...AND WINDS BEGIN THE
PERIOD FROM THE NE AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE BACKING SLOWLY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW. AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...IT DRIVES A DRY
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KTS AND TURNING BACK TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE NE WINDS
PERSIST MONDAY...WHILE ONLY SLOWLY EASING. SEAS WILL BE WIND-
DRIVEN DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THANKS TO THE LOW
SPEEDS...AMPLITUDES WILL BE 1-3 FT EACH DAY...WITH A BRIEF
INCREASE TO 2-4 FT LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH THE FROPA.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA NOW THROUGH 18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH...AND CLEAR
IN BETWEEN. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH...KEPT TEMPERATURES
STEADY TO SLIGHTLY RISING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN NOW THROUGH 12Z. COLD WEST UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
OVERALL...EDITS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WERE MINOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
AREA OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM EARLIER
IS THINNING AND LIFTING A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND RAP13
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT HIGH RH ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING IT OUT TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN SKY CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL OF THESE TRENDS HANDLED
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RUC13 KEEPS THIS AREA
INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EVEN SAGS IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT DOES KEEP HIGH RH ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 925MB-H85
LAYER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF MOVEMENT SOUTH BUT AGREE THAT
THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MINOR UPDATE TO THE SKY GRIDS IN KEEPING THE ABOVE AREA IN LONGER
AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME TRENDS DEVELOP.
REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS DOING WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WAS
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LOW WAS CLEARING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL RATHER QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRYING DEWPOINTS FROM WESTERLY SUBSIDING FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE WEST TO AROUND
20 NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. ON TUESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NORTH DAKOTA ONLY SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY N THE 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED THE RESULTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MISS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM
AIR TO LOWER AND MID LEVELS...BUT SURFACE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT TIMING...BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME EITHER ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S...THEN BECOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS BOTH SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS
COOL QUICKLY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SCT LOW VFR TO BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE MAINLY PUSHES EAST OF KMOT.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER KBIS-KJMS.
OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT
24HRS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED...BETTER REPRESENTED THE CURRENT LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER
THE LAKE THEN BLENDED THAT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
GRIDS. ON BALANCE STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKE THIS
MORNING BUT THIN -A BIT- ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...RADAR DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN MOVING NNE INTO WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. HRRR SHOWED THIS AND MODELS DO SHOW A TONGUE OF MOISTURE
HOWEVER WAS THINKING MODELS MIGHT BE OVERSTATING A BIT BUT LOOKS
LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WARRANTED FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WEST. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. WILL START OUT TODAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
SS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THERE. HIGHS BASICALLY 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TODAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN GFS AND NAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEING JUST WEST OF THE AREA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WEST HALF OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON DROPPING TO CHANCE POPS EAST. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL
AREAS. BY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WHILE THE
NAM A A BIT SLOWER. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND CONTINUE
WITH MORNING POPS EAST. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -4 TO -6C OVER THE LAKE. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION EXPECT THE LAKE TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN WITH A GOOD SHOT
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW MENTIONED WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO WILL GO DRY. HIGHS 55 TO 60
TODAY AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES GIVEN THE CONTINUING COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS THE
HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS
HOWEVER MOST PLACES WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
PRECIP ALL RAIN. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE 850 MB TEMPS
DIPPING TO MINUS 4C ON SUNDAY COULD WELL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
NON- VFR MAY LINGER NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRONGER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THEN YDY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
803 PM PST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE THEN SWEEP INLAND...REACHING THE CASCADES ABOUT MIDDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY PRE-FRONTAL SOUTH WIND LATE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
VERY BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS
TO DROP BELOW CASCADE PASS LEVELS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS PRIMARILY THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING PRIMARILY TO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY. A
STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL SEND WAVES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TONIGHT...NWS PORTLAND DUAL-POL DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
WESTERN OREGON. THE 00Z HRRR RUN SHOWS THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN DIMINISHING BUT NOT
COMPLETELY STOPPING. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD
FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 14Z.
WATER VAPOR AND INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 47N
134W AT 0330Z. THE 00Z NAM SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID AT 03Z SEEMED TO BE
A BIT TOO FAR EAST WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER...ITS 1005 LOW CENTER
APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO REALITY. FRONT PASSED BUOY036 AROUND 01Z.
LOWEST PRESSURE AT BUOY 036 WAS 1008.7 MB...BUT WAS NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER. NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE LOW OVERNIGHT...REACHING A
MINIMUM PRES OF 997 MB AS IT MOVES INSIDE 130W.
.THURSDAY...THIS GENERAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREAS WILL RESULT IN A WET AND BREEZY DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SOUTH WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND LIKELY
PEAK IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE BEFORE TEMPORARILY DROPPING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 4KM WRFGFS VALID 12Z THU INDICATES 30-35 KT
SUSTAINED WIND ALONG THE S WA AND EXTREME N OREGON COAST. THE NAM
SHOWS 50 KT 925 MB WIND BARBS ALONG THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST AT
15Z...JUST BEFORE COLD-FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO VERY
CLOSE HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS FOR THE S WA AND N OREGON COAST...BUT
WILL KEEP THE WIND JUST BELOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VERY
ISOLATED 60 MPH GUSTS AT HEADLAND LOCATIONS. A SECONDARY SURGE OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE TO THE PRE-FRONTAL
SOUTH WIND EARLIER IN THE MORNING...WILL ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY
MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SECONDARY SURGE
OF WIND WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST AND
FAR NORTH OREGON COAST.
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT NEAR 7500 FT TONIGHT BEFORE CRASHING
RATHER ABRUPTLY TO NEAR 4000 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER TO THE PASSES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET FOR THE OREGON CASCADE PASSES WITH CLOSER TO A FOOT OF SNOW
LIKELY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6KFT. THE DEEPEST INSTABILITY AND BEST
OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT THIS BEARS
WATCHING.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A STABILIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT
IN SHOWERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES FRIDAY BEFORE GENERALLY DISSIPATING COMPLETELY FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON SATURDAY. WEISHAAR
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLIGHTLY CLEARER PICTURE IS EMERGING IN REGARD
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH BEST ESTIMATES PLACING IT GENERALLY IN LINE WITH OR
ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
LIFT INTO WASHINGTON STATE ON SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING NUDGES IT
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND ON
SATURDAY WILL SPLIT AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP ANOTHER CLOSED LOW...WHICH WILL
ENTRAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS OFFSHORE. EARLY ON MONDAY
THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE COAST...BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE IT FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE. MODEL
SPREAD INCREASES THEREAFTER...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THE AREA WILL SEE CONTINUED UNSETTLED AND RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. BURGESS
&&
.AVIATION...POOR FLYING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO WED AM. REMNANTS
OF WARM FRONT OVER REGION MAINTAINING STATUS QUO TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT PRECIP INLAND AND IFR TO MVFR ALONG
THE COAST. AREAS TO S OF KSLE ARE OUT OF THE RAIN AND IN MUCH
BETTER CONDITIONS JUST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THESE AREA OF BETTER
CIGS MAY WORK ITS WAY AS FAR N AS KPDX THROUGH 09Z...BUT SUSPECT
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY MVFR IN/AROUND KPDX.
S WINDS AND RAIN INCREASE AFT 12Z WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
AND LOCALLY IFR...AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. MTNS REMAIN OBSCURED.
COLD FRONT ON COAST AROUND 15Z...AND TO CASCADES AROUND 19Z.
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND JUST AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. CIGS LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL 21Z TO IMPROVE TO VFR.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
12Z...ALONG WITH LIGHT E WINDS. AFTER 12Z...RAIN INCREASING. CIGS
REMAIN MVFR...WITH MVFR VIS DEVELOPING AS RAIN INCREASES. FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z...WITH WINDS TURNING
S TO SW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT.ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. COLD FRONT STILL ABOUT 250 MILES
OFFSHORE BUT MOVING TO EAST STEADILY. 985 MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST OF WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND
TONIGHT AND WED AM. THIS WILL PUSH FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SOLID S GALES
LATER TONIGHT AND WED AM...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT LATER WED AM. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 7 FT...BUT WILL STEADILY
BUILD UP TO 15 TO 20 FT AFTER 3 AM AS WINDS INCREASE.
SEAS HOLD AROUND 17 TO 20 FT THU AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SUBSIDE WED
NIGHT AND THU. WINDS WILL EASE WED EVENING AS WELL. HIGH PRES OVER
COASTAL WATERS WILL BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THU AND FRI.
ROCKEY.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND WED FOR THE NORTH COASTAL WATERS...
OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
GALE WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WED AM ON THE CENTRAL OREGON
COASTAL WATERS...OR FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA BAR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1203 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING. HOWEVER, FLIGHT CATEGORY
TIMING IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AT KAMA, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY 09Z-17Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS 11Z-13Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT INTO
MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 17Z WITH VFR BRIEFLY RETURNING AFTER 19Z. WE SAY
BRIEFLY BECAUSE A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND
0130Z, AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS. -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE 11Z-15Z. EVEN IF THIS DOESN`T
MATERIALIZE, DZ WILL BE LIKELY 01Z-17Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY
AFTER 0130Z.
AT KDHT, -TSRA/VCTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTERWARD,
VCSH/DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 09Z- 16Z, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFR 12Z-14Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z, WITH BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING 19Z-2230Z. AFTER 2230Z, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINAL, RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, -SHRA COULD ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
AGAIN 23Z-02Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
AT KGUY, FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE DETERIORATING INTO IFR CATEGORY
10Z-17Z, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS 11Z-14Z. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 17Z, BUT WE THINK
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE 07Z-10Z, AND VCSH/DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE
10Z-17Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 2130Z,
RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE 22Z-04Z. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF -SN 02Z-04Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...INCREASING POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VORTICITY MAXIMA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT AS WARM
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
AT KAMA, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 05Z AND INTO IFR CATEGORY 09Z-17Z; CONDITIONS COULD BE AS LOW
AS VLIFR BRIEFLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND 20Z. THERE COULD BE VCSH OR EVEN
DZ 09Z-17Z.
AT KDHT, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 05Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 09Z-16Z; A BRIEF DETERIORATION TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
AFTER 16Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL 05Z-09Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 09Z-16Z. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AFTER 23Z, BUT WE DIDN`T BRING IT THROUGH SINCE
IT`S AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
AT KGUY, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 11Z-16Z; BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD STICK AROUND AFTER 16Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WE`LL RAISE THEM INTO VFR
AFTER 20Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL 07Z-11Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 11Z-
16Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 22Z, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AFTER 22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STATE OF THE FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PANHANDLES REMAIN LOCKED
IN DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FRONT. THIS WILL BE A
BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 3 HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHILE LEAVING PERCENTAGES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS CLOSER THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN. INCREASED POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THE RECENT TREND OF HIGHER POPS FURTHER
WEST AS SHOWN IN THE HRRR RUC.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS POPS AND STRUCTURE
BUT SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE TREND THIS SEASON OF
NOCTURNAL COLD FRONTS MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS MUCH
SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER THE INITIAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE TIME FRAME FOR A THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT OR 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JC/JJ
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
525 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
AT 3 PM...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS WAS PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS PRODUCING A BROKEN
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE 06.12Z AND 06.18Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB. WHILE THE 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 9 C/KM...THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THIS MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. THE GEM IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND
WEAKER WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
AIR BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER THE ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE DEEP
LIFT BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB...AND STRONG 280-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS AREA. AS RESULT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE GROUND. DUE TO THIS INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN THE PRODUCTION OF
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE GFS AND GEM AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
ECMWF. GFS SOUNDINGS SOUNDINGS SHOW 100 TO 200 MB LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THE GFS COBB LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO
CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 13-16 TO 1...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES. HOWEVER IF THE LOWER QPF IS CORRECT
IN THE ECMWF...THESE TOTALS WOULD BE MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE. THESE SNOW TOTALS MAY BE EVEN LOWER IN THE GEM DUE TO ITS
FURTHER NORTHEAST TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT IS ALSO FASTER WITH ITS SYSTEM. DUE TO
THESE COMPLEXITIES JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 30
PERCENT FOR NOW.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE 06.12Z GFS PRODUCED BAD SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14.00Z. THE TEMPERATURES PLUNGED FROM
THE UPPER 20S AT 13.18Z TO AROUND 5F BY 14.00Z. THESE VALUES
SHOWED UP IN AWIPS AND COBB DATA. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS IS PHYSICALLY NOT POSSIBLE.
THINKING THAT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME TYPE DECODING ERROR IN THE
MODEL. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THESE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY MADE
THEIR WAY INTO GFE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND AFFECTED OUR ALL
BLEND TEMPERATURE DATA. AS A RESULT...CREATED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHOUT GFS BEING IN IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH EXPECT TO
SEE SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. FIRST BATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA SHOULD BRING A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN DECK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. IFR CLOUDS DEVELOPED
DURING THE DAY OVER THE FRESH SNOW PACK ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. EARLIER RUNS OF THE RAP WERE SUGGESTING THIS
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WOULD GET ADVECTED OVER THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW SUGGESTS
THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN SO HAVE STARTED TO BACK OUT OF THE EARLIER
FORECAST OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE TAKEN
THIS TO JUST A SCATTERED DECK. AFTER THAT...THE 06.18Z NAM
SUGGESTS AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH VFR CEILINGS OF 3 TO 4 THOUSAND
FEET OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE...SO HAVE
ONLY INDICATED ANOTHER SCATTERED LAYER AS THIS MOISTURE COMES ACROSS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NOW. REPORTS OF ROADS IN
THAT AREA INDICATE MAINLY WET TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN CONDITIONS
AND ENDING OF SNOW. MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN TRENDS
OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS
CURRENT PUSHING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SWEETWATER AND
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS PUSHED EASTWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED
AROUND RAWLINS. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL IT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG WITH LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW HAS RECENTLY STARTED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK...ALTHOUGH TWEAKED THE TIMING OF
THE ADVISORY IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING
WESTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING 110 KT JET MAX
ALOFT...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAY NEED
HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF I80 AND I25 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GFS MOS SHOWS
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH
PLAINS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS 10 KNOTS TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS BUT
FAILED TO COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH STABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A VIGOROUS JET...KEPT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB WINDS SPIKE UP TO 50KTS AT 06Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 18Z. WILL LIKELY BE IN WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THAT
TIME...AT THE VERY LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
SEE A SMALL LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THEY DO PICK UP AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS FINALLY START TO COME DOWN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS
UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MAYBE SOME 60S BY
MONDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SLOW IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS DOWN THROUGH 18Z. ONCE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN...WE
SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
810 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS SE WYOMING AND CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL CLEAR OUT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SE WY BUT LEAVE A BIT LONGER OVER THE
PANHANDLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED/REMOVED POPS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SE WYOMING WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS
CURRENT PUSHING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SWEETWATER AND
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS PUSHED EASTWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED
AROUND RAWLINS. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL IT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG WITH LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW HAS RECENTLY STARTED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK...ALTHOUGH TWEAKED THE TIMING OF
THE ADVISORY IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING
WESTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING 110 KT JET MAX
ALOFT...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAY NEED
HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF I80 AND I25 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GFS MOS SHOWS
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH
PLAINS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS 10 KNOTS TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS BUT
FAILED TO COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH STABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A VIGOROUS JET...KEPT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB WINDS SPIKE UP TO 50KTS AT 06Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 18Z. WILL LIKELY BE IN WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THAT
TIME...AT THE VERY LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
SEE A SMALL LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THEY DO PICK UP AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS FINALLY START TO COME DOWN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS
UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MAYBE SOME 60S BY
MONDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SLOW IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS DOWN THROUGH 18Z. ONCE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN...WE
SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
425 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO LARAMIE COUNTY. AS EXPECTED...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE RESULTING IN DRIER AIR
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGE...AND GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS
CURRENT PUSHING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SWEETWATER AND
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS PUSHED EASTWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED
AROUND RAWLINS. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL IT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG WITH LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW HAS RECENTLY STARTED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK...ALTHOUGH TWEAKED THE TIMING OF
THE ADVISORY IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING
WESTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING 110 KT JET MAX
ALOFT...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAY NEED
HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF I80 AND I25 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GFS MOS SHOWS
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH
PLAINS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS 10 KNOTS TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS BUT
FAILED TO COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH STABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A VIGOROUS JET...KEPT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB WINDS SPIKE UP TO 50KTS AT 06Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 18Z. WILL LIKELY BE IN WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THAT
TIME...AT THE VERY LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
SEE A SMALL LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THEY DO PICK UP AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS FINALLY START TO COME DOWN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS
UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MAYBE SOME 60S BY
MONDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SLOW IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS DOWN THROUGH 18Z. ONCE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN...WE
SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ102-
108-112-114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRE-DAWN...OTHER THAN ACROSS EASTERN HALVES OF BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...DRY WEATHER HAS PREVAILED ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE GEORGIA. AN AXIS OF SURFACE PRES
FALLS PRECEDING A LOW PRES WAVE SLIDING N ALONG THE COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE. BY DAYBREAK... AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION TIGHTENS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE WAVES. MODEL VSBY PROGS AND
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST RAP INDICATE THAT WE MAY SEE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOP BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND
EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMPLICATE
MATTERS SOMEWHAT. WHEN CONDITIONS BEGIN TO TANK IN SPACE AND
TIME...DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME AREAS.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE TO THE W WILL FLATTEN QUITE A BIT TODAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE NW FLANKS OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST COMPONENT IN
THE LOWER LEVELS DELIVERING SOME PRE-FRONTAL DOWNSLOPE AND
COMPRESSION UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AFTER MID MORNING...LOW CLOUDS
WILL ERODE BUT LAYERS OF MID CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED LATE
MORNING SPRINKLE IN A FEW SPOTS. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY.
HIGH TEMPS COULD SPIKE TO 80 DEGREES ALONG THE DOWNSLOPING COASTAL
CORRIDOR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LAYERED CLOUDS MAKE
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS RATHER LOW. MILD READINGS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S STILL A NEAR CERTAINTY. CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES BUT POPS STILL SILENT AT THAT POINT.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
STIR ALL NIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.
LAKE WINDS...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH GUST POTENTIAL OVER 25 KT AT TIMES DURING THE PEAK
SURGING SEVERAL HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK ON FRI. WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY...AS THE DAMPENED UPPER
TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ALLOW
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO STEADILY TRACK TOWARD THE
COASTLINE SATURDAY...WITH ITS AXIS EVENTUALLY SLIPPING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DIRECTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITHIN BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS WILL
ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE
NIGHTTIME LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY
DECOUPLE FRIDAY NIGHT...SINCE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE UPSTATE REGION. A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
GRADIENT WILL THUS BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
FROST ANALYSIS TOOLS ARE THEREFORE SUGGESTING THAT FROST WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND...AS COLD ADVECTION
DIMINISHES FOLLOWING THE EASTWARD DRIFT OF HIGH PRESSURE. WILL
INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST SUNDAY. WEEKEND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE
WARMING TREND...WITH SLOWLY RECOVERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORTING MILDER NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE
TO BOTH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE SURFACE PATTERN AND THE LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN DESCEND FROM
THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIVING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG FRONT WILL BE
DRIVEN BY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITHIN A DEVELOPING CUT OFF
LOW SWEEPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA
COULD BECOME LOCATED WITHIN STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW MID TO LATE WEEK
ON THE BACK SIDE OF A COASTAL LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PASSING FRONT. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT...AND WILL JUST
ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL OTHERWISE CAP RAIN
CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AS
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE WAVE
PASSING BY OFF THE COAST. WE KEPT GOOD PERSISTENCE WITH THE
PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AT
KSAV NEARING DAYBREAK WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
ADVECTING INTO KCHS FROM THE NW AND N LATE. TIMING REMAINS
AN ISSUE BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIR IFR CONDITIONS BLANKET A GOOD
PORTION OF THE COASTAL CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
THU. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH NW WINDS FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER
TODAY.
EXTENDED
AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ADVECTION FOG TO SWEEP SE
INTO THE INTRA-COASTAL AND POSSIBLY THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE
HARBOR FORECAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW END.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUED SECOND PERIOD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND HARBOR. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCITE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SURGES OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AND
EVEN A BRIEF WINDOW FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WINDOW FOR
FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS IS LONG
ENOUGH TO CONSIDER GALE WATCHES OR WARNINGS. WE THOUGHT WAVEWATCH
WAS A BIT LOW AT 12Z FRIDAY NEAR SHORE WITH WIND WAVE POTENTIAL AND
WE BUMPED SEA HEIGHTS UP A FOOT OR SO.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
BE ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT. EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND ALLOWS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BEGINNING WITH THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOLLOWED BY THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BY MIDNIGHT. THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WITHIN AN ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RESULT OF LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ330.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 950 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013/
UPDATED SEVERAL GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO ADJUST TIMING OF
RAIN AND FRONT BY AN HOUR OR TWO BY PRIMARILY USING HEAVILY
WEIGHTED HRRR BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE EVERYTHING
IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING PROSPECT FOR FOG AND LIGHT
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL LOOK FOR FAIRLY WINDY
DAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING LIFTING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TIMING HAS FRONT AND A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...REACHING THE ATLANTA METRO
AREA BY AROUND SUN-UP AND CONTINUING SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY EXITING OUR CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. RAIN ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG
UPPER SUPPORT INDICATES THAT THUNDER WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MODEST AT BEST WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHWEST...TAPERING TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM THE
METRO AREA SOUTH AND EAST. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY SEE A THREAT FOR PATCHY AREAS OF
FROST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
20
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE CWA BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS IS NO LONGER
SHOWING PRECIP FOR SATURDAY SO HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. 00Z RUN OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP
PRECIP OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THUS HAVE LEFT ALL
MENTION OF POPS OUT.
11/16
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY 08-09Z... THEN IFR SHOULD FOLLOW BY 10Z AS
THE -RA MOVES IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST RADAR SHOWS AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ENTERING NW GA. TIMING TOOL
INDICATES THE -RA WILL SPREAD INTO ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BY 10-12Z
THIS MORNING... AND SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF ATL BY 15-16Z. IF THE -RA
HOLDS TOGETHER... IT WOULD PUSH INTO KCSG AND KMCN TAF SITES AROUND
14-15Z AND SHOULD END BY 17Z. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
14-15Z... THEN SHOULD SEE VFR BY 16-18Z TODAY. CURRENT LIGHT SE
WINDS WILL VEER SW BY 09-10Z... THEN NW BY 16Z WITH FROPA... AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 12-14KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 53 66 38 64 / 10 30 5 0
ATLANTA 54 64 39 62 / 30 60 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 50 60 33 59 / 50 80 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 55 61 35 61 / 70 90 0 0
COLUMBUS 59 71 41 67 / 20 20 0 0
GAINESVILLE 53 64 38 61 / 30 60 0 0
MACON 57 72 39 67 / 5 20 5 0
ROME 55 61 34 60 / 100 60 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 56 65 35 64 / 30 60 0 0
VIDALIA 59 77 48 69 / 5 20 10 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SD TO EASTERN NEB WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN SE SD
YESTERDAY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
EVER SINCE. CURRENTLY THIS AREA OF STRATUS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT 31 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE AWIPS
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
BEING THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT NIGHT
THIS STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR TAKES THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 AND THEN DIMINISHES/MOVES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR FOR CLOUD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF/WHEN NEEDED. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
SNOW FIELD THAT COVERS SW MN INTO NEB AND SD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ADDING
A CHILL TO THE AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S IN SOME FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT BEST THERE
MAY BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ELSEWHERE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG
THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE TREND AMONG ALL THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY COLDER WITH A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS COOLER IT IS STILL QUITE WARM. SO IF SNOW DOES OCCUR
MUCH OF IT SHOULD MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS SKIES CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS WITH SKC. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WEST WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR NEAR
CALM LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1134 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
The 20Z water vapor imagery shows a upper level trough progressing
east through the plains into the upper Midwest and MS river valley.
Weak ridging was noted over the inter-mountain west with another
shortwave trough approaching the pacific northwest coast. At the
surface, a cool and much dryer ridge of high pressure has settled
into the central plains.
For tonight and Thursday, dry and cool weather is expected to
persist as the surface ridge keeps dry air over the forecast area.
Additionally there is no obvious wave within the northwest flow
aloft to suggest any forcing for precip. The low level saturation
that has allowed the STRATOCU deck to linger over eastern KS through
the afternoon is expected to eventually mix out and/or move east.
Latest visible satellite seems to support the RAP and HRRR PROGS of
the low level saturation dissipating. So think tonight will
eventually become mostly clear. Am a little concerned about the
formation of fog overnight since the boundary layer moisture has not
mixed out and cross over temps are 3 to 5 degrees above the forecast
min temps. The one thing against a good radiational fog is that the
models keep the center of the surface ridge over western KS and the
winds never go calm with lower dewpoint temps advecting in from the
west through the night. Think this may be enough to limit any fog
development to the favored low spots near bodies of water where the
winds are most likely to be light and variable. Thursday should be
sunny with a dry northwest flow aloft and the surface ridge still
over eastern KS. Because of this there does not look to be a lot of
low level warm air advection tomorrow so highs may struggle to warm
into the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
Winds and cloud cover should steadily increase late Thursday night
into Friday on the south end of a rather potent wave moving east
through the Dakotas. Clouds will be of the high variety with still
dry low to mid levels, limiting any precipitation chances. Specifics
on how fast and thick the clouds are Tuesday night will play a large
role in how cool temps will fall as southwest winds ramp up just off
the surface through the night. Expect winds and clouds to hold off
the longest in the south and east for the coolest temps there. A
quite windy Friday remains to be expected, though the strongest
winds may be a bit farther east, with near advisory levels possible
for much of the area. Overnight and early day warm air advection
should push temps well into the 60s. Elevated fire danger is still
anticipated in the warm, dry, and windy boundary layer. The modified
Pacific cold front with the Dakotas wave sinks in late Friday night
into Saturday and should bring little cooling and much lighter
winds.
Zonal flow aloft becomes more northwesterly by Monday as an upper
trof off the west coast deepens. Modest moisture return in
isentropic lift may still be enough for a few showers Monday night
into Tuesday. The main periods of question are for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are in rather strong agreement
with a shortwave diving south into the Northern Plains and western
Great Lakes Tuesday and on southeast through the mid Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The source region of the airmass
is northern Alaska and Yukon, but does linger for 12-24 hours in
southern Canada before coming into the CONUS, and snowpack in this
area does not appear to be now or look likely to increase much
before its arrival. Still, the operational runs drop 850mb temps
well below 0 C with its passage and suggest one of the coldest days
of the cold season so far. The ensembles show a rather large spread
in temps and height fields however, and this is not unexpected with
this smaller scale wave coming through a somewhat complex pattern.
Will suggest a cooling trend and some chance for liquid
precipitation at this point but confidence is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
The most likely scenario through the TAF period appears to be VFR
conditions at all sites. Seem to have a fair setup for shallow fog
at MHK and TOP, but winds just above the surface are expected to
limit overall fog development so have removed any vis restrictions
from the TAF, although not completely ruled out.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
112 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
110 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE POPS UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MAINE TO REFLECT THE 06Z RADAR LOOP. BOOSTED TEMPERATURES AS WELL
USING THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE WHICH WAS HANDLING THINGS QUITE WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVRNGT. FCST 925MB WINDS SHOW A JET
CORE UP TO 55 KT BY 12Z THU ALG...BUT TANGENTIAL TO THE DOWNEAST
COAST. THE IMPLICATION IS THAT WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE
ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT WIND ADV GUSTS COULD BE CONTAINED
FROM REACHING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE COASTAL HIGHLANDS WITH THIS
LLVL JET ORIENTATION. WIND SPEEDS ALF DIMINISH DURG THE DAY THU AS
THE LLVL JET CORE SLIDED E INTO THE CAN MARITIMES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. TYPICALLY...THE BEST COLD FRONTAL RN SHWRS WILL OCCUR
W OF THE LLVL JET CORE TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH WILL
OCCUR MIDDAY ACROSS THE XTRM NW TO AS LATE AS ERLY EVE THU ACROSS
FAR SE WASHINGTON COUNTY.
OVRNGT TEMPS WHICH WILL BE QUITE MILD, HOLDING STEADY AND SLOWLY
RISE LATER TNGT AS SSW SFC WINDS INCREASE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALF. HI TEMPS THU WILL MAX OUT ERLY ACROSS THE NW
WITH A MIDDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SHOULD REACH HIGHS
SOMETIME IN THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PARTLY TO
NEAR TOTAL CLRG IS INITIALLY XPCTD THU NGT WITH A MID LVL DRY
SLOT...AS TEMPS AND WINDS BECOME MORE BRISK BY DAYBREAK FRI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PULL SOME
VERY CHILLY AIR ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN MAINE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
AWAY ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A NEW TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH AHEAD OF A LOW TRACKING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NEW LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WILL PULL AN OCCLUDED FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA. AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH WITH RAIN
SHOWERS LIKELY DOWNEAST. A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DRAWS ENOUGH WARM AIR
NORTHWARD TO MIX THE SNOW WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A WEAK SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MAINE COAST.
THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AND PROLONG ANY SNOW OVER THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS RIGHT NOW APPEAR TO BE FAVORING A FAST
MOVING FRONT WITH JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. VERY
CHILLY AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND FLURRIES OVER THE NORTH AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE
DOWNEAST AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR WITH MVFR OVR DOWNEAST AREAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
LATER TNGT TO IFR FROM SW TO NE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK
THU AS INCREASING S WINDS BRING MOIST BL AIR FROM THE GULF OF ME
AND AS SHWRS MOVE E INTO THE FA FROM QB. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN
IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NGT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH IN
STRATUS FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR
EARLY SUNDAY AND MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
A FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK DOWNEAST WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WE WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT SCA CALLING FOR WINDS UP
TO 30 KT WITH SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TNGT INTO THU.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA WILL BE NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE SATURDAY THEN BE
LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER. AN SCA OR A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
FOR STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS. PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA INTO
FAR ERN UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C(LAKE TEMPS NEAR 8C)
ONLY PROVIDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. RADAR INDICATED
ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES INTO WEST UPPER MI AND S CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...CAA DROPPING 850/700 MB TEMPS TO -9C/-15C AND
GRADUALLY CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR INCREASE IN LES FOR
WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST NORTH OF
M-28 AND OVER THE EAST FROM MUNISING AND SHINGLETON EASTWARD.
THURSDAY...300-310 LOW LEVEL FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF AS A WEAK 850-700 MB TROUGH BRUSHES
THE ERN LAKE WITH CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS(AN INCREASE IN 850-700
MB MOISTURE AND 700 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -18C). EVEN WITH NMRS
SHSN...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEST...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH AND LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
FOR THU NIGHT WILL INITIALLY SEE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NW WINDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY STAY AROUND -8C TO -9C...SO LES IN NORTHWEST WIND
SNOWBELTS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE
LONGER FETCH AND LONGER LASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY MINOR...BUT
SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NERN CWA WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 00Z SAT...CONFINING ANY
REMAINING ISOLATED LES TO NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BY FRI EVENING. SOME
PRECIP MAY BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 00Z SAT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT THE 12/06 GFS AND 00Z/06 ECMWF SHOW MOVING FROM ERN
SD AT 00Z SAT TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z SAT THEN TO ONTARIO E OF
LAKE HURON BY 18Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE...WITH A
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES /MAINLY THE
WEAKER ONE/ SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTER THAT LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...SINCE MAIN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IS WITH PTYPE AND EXACT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. PTYPES LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA /WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN/ TO MOSTLY
RAIN OVER THE ERN CWA DUE TO WARMER AIR COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE WARM...THE WARM LAYER
WILL ALSO BE DRY SO WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SUN. THINK
THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT STILL
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THAT NUMBER.
AFTER THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT...LOW LEVEL AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES WILL MOVE IN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT /MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT SO ENDING TIME IS VERY
UNCERTAIN/. THINK IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF THE BEST
CONDITIONS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SO
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.
SUN THROUGH NEXT WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDER THAN THE GFS IN
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C OVER THE CWA FROM MON NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WED. THE GFS IS COLD AS WELL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -15C FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WED. OF COURSE...LES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
WOULD ALSO LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME POINT...BUT THIS IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE RIGHT
NOW...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE FOR LES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
WITH SUFFICIENT OVERWATER INSTABILITY...LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE
EXPECTED OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU TODAY...THOUGH WNW WIND FLOW WILL
FAVOR KCMX MORE THAN KIWD. DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE FLOW AT KSAW
SHOULD PREVENT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A FEW FLURRIES. FOR THE
MOST PART...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
MORNING...THOUGH DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF WIND AT KSAW MAY LEAD TO OCNL
VFR. THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARD VFR IN THE AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT LIFTING OF THE MOISTURE LAYER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN LAKE HURON WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
QUEBEC THIS EVENING...LEAVING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY TO CROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
HUDSON BAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1102 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MOST INTERESTING THING WITH THE WEATHER TO MONITOR TODAY IS THE
SHRINKING OF THE SNOWPACK LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS SNOW ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. AS WE GET INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
US THIS SNOW...WE ARE SEEING OUR FLOW ALOFT TURN NW. WITH THE NW
FLOW COMES SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DROPPING
SOME CLOUD COVER DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. OF MORE
CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SE SODAK. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THEM NOW MOVING OVER THE
SNOWPACK...THE DECREASED MIXING THERE WILL LIKELY MEAN WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY LOSE THEM BEFORE THE SUNSETS...SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE THEM
EXPAND IN ONE FASHION OR ANOTHER TONIGHT. THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE FOG POTENTIAL SOME TONIGHT
AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT REMAINING TONIGHT TO KEEP WINDS
UP AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL MN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
MORE OF A STRATUS THAN A FOG CONCERN. ONLY LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE SW CWA...MORE OR LESS WHERE THE DEEPER SNOWPACK EXISTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND WILL BE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY. H850
THETA_E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT BASED ON THE FORCING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-94.
THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE CHANCE
POPS...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSISTENCY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES OFF LATE THURSDAY. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES EXPECT THE POPS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
A SMALL AREA OF STRATUS... ACROSS SW MN... WITH CIGS LESS THAN 1K
FEET WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE MN OVERNIGHT. ITS
POSSIBLE THE AREA COULD EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND BRUSH KMSP.
SCT-BKN060-090 WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FROM KAXN TO KEAU WITH CLR-SCT CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEST WINDS 4-7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NW
10-12 KNOTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
KMSP...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE THREAT FOR STRATUS TO EXPAND
NORTH FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN AFTER 07Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT
INCLUDED SCT008 AS A HEADS UP. OTHERWISE SCT-BKN060-090 WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH SCT-BKN040-060 THURSDAY MORNING.
WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING NW 10-12 KNOTS
THURSDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS BCMG S 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1141 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUIET/DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTN...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S...WHILE TO THE WEST IN INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 40S. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AS ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION...BEHIND THE TROUGH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND SETTLES ON
TO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT THE SREF IS INDICATING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE RAP OR OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ATTM. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN FCST WITH WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT...VERY
LITTLE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR CWA AND COLD/SUB FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS BEING SAID...IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPS WITH DAYTIME READINGS EDGING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
IN TERMS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BASIC ELEMENTS SUCH AS
TEMPERATURES/POPS...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS CURRENTLY A SPLIT
DECISION...FEATURING RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MON-WED
TIME FRAME. AT ANY RATE...THE ONLY PERIODS CURRENTLY FEATURING
ONLY SLIGHT...STILL-HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TUESDAY
IN THE EAST/SOUTH AND THEN WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.
GETTING INTO GREATER DETAIL AND STARTING WITH THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...UPPER FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE LOCALLY AS THE AREA
LIES IN BETWEEN A NORTHEAST CONUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EFFECT OF THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
BE HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH MOST AREAS
10+ MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PASSING CLOUDS AND BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO SHARPLY...AND KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
A BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BUT DID NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 32-35 AND SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY/GREELEY/WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING MAJOR ISSUES WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT THANKS
TO INCREASING BREEZES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT WILL BE ONGOING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...AS AGAIN EXPECT PLENTY OF
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE MT/WY AREA ON
SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5-10 MPH LIGHTER
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN IN THE WINDIER SOUTHEAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...OR
5-10 PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECT A NICE UPWARD BUMP FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. HAVE AIMED MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S RANGE...WITH MID 60S MOST
FAVORED IN KS ZONES AND THE DAWSON-FURNAS CORRIDOR IN THE WEST.
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES THIS IS ABOUT A 5-DEGREE UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON FRI NIGHT...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT NUDGES
INTO THE THE CWA...SIGNALED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT TO FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES. AGAIN...SUPPOSE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
CONTRIBUTION FROM MELTED SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE VISIBILITY
PRODUCT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/SREF ARE OVER-DOING THINGS...AND
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOG-FREE FOR NOW. CHANGED FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS LITTLE WITH MOST PLACES MID-30S.
SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH
GENERALLY SUNNIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS THE PRIMARY UPPER JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER. ON SATURDAY...BREEZES WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND
10 MPH FROM THE NORTH...AND THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH SATURDAY HIGHS RANGING
FROM LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...AND SUNDAY MID-UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
STEADILY DECREASES ALTHOUGH THAT BEING SAID...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS APPEAR IN STORE. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK. ALTHOUGH THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD 50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
PROVIDES A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COLDER MAINLY IN THE 40S. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF SOME LOW
STRATUS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NUISANCE LIGHT DRIZZLE...SO
THIS BEARS WATCHING. GETTING INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALONG A TRACK FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS TO EASTERN KS/MO. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO PASS
JUST EAST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT...NUISANCE PRECIP POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...STUCK WITH THE
INITIALIZED BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT RAIN ONLY
IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NO MENTION OF
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMP-WISE TUESDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HIGHS...AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MID 40S TO MID
50S...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF CAME IN 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW IN ALL AREAS...BUT THIS WAS LARGELY BASED OFF THE 00Z
ECMWF...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST RUN HAS COME IN DRY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES THE MAJORITY OF
FORCING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH IT. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE A COLDER TURN...ITS JUST A MATTER
OF HOW MUCH SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AIMS FOR A MID 30S-LOW 40S
RANGE IN MOST SPOTS...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS COLDER WITH MID 30S
MOST ALL PLACES. PLENTY TO SORT OUT HERE IN THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE ARE REMAINING UNDER QUIET NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECTING WHAT CLOUDS DO PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINAL AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...KEEPING WINDS W/NWRLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. AS WE GET
TOWARD THIS EVENING/THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...THIS HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MORE VARIABLE
WINDS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
315 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING..MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1...IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND ONLY PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAP SHOWING WEAK 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GROWING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.1"-0.2". AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. THIS WILL PRETTY
MUCH DRY UP ALL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925MB AT 18Z...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST AND LOWER 70S EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SINCE
STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RELATIVELY THICK THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. 64-71. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1310M FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S AND COOLER THAN
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER NC
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SPLIT... WITH PIECES OF THE RIDGE
HEADING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLIGHTLY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE FLAT AND FAST MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THE BETTER KINEMATICS AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING
WAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH... AS WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC... SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. THE PREDICTED PROFILE
OF TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SATURDAY NIGHT... PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE... THE COOL
START AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
BUT GENTLY CYCLONIC OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NE COAST... PUSHED BY A STRONGER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP WNW FLOW HOLDS OVER NC... DRAWING A PIECE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER NC... WHILE A STRONG E-W ORIENTED POLAR
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A VEIL OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD SUNDAY... SLIPPING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING
IN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO A
BONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY
BEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPT
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWN
TO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT
PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING
ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NW
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (AND
MUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSE
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TO
BUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
IN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...
MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MODEL FORECAST ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS WILL REACH. CURRENTLY TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM KRDU
EASTWARD BY 08Z AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WHILE MORE PATCHY
AROUND KGSO AND KINT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND ERODING THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
300 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING..MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1...IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND ONLY PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAP SHOWING WEAK 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GROWING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.1"-0.2". AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. THIS WILL PRETTY
MUCH DRY UP ALL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925MB AT 18Z...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST AND LOWER 70S EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SINCE
STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RELATIVELY THICK THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. 64-71. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...
A POSITIVE-TILTED L/W TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TN VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AS THE
ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NC PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...A DISSIPATING
BAND OF SHOWERS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE
AREA AS PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT TO A WESTERLY-NWLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL ELIMINATE/ LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AND ALL
WHILE THE LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER/MID 70S SE. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL DRY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO ABRUPT WEST-EAST
CLEARING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CAA DRIVEN
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 40 SE.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
ON FRIDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ON
FRI...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SAT MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER NC
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SPLIT... WITH PIECES OF THE RIDGE
HEADING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLIGHTLY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE FLAT AND FAST MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THE BETTER KINEMATICS AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING
WAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH... AS WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC... SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. THE PREDICTED PROFILE
OF TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SATURDAY NIGHT... PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE... THE COOL
START AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
BUT GENTLY CYCLONIC OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NE COAST... PUSHED BY A STRONGER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP WNW FLOW HOLDS OVER NC... DRAWING A PIECE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER NC... WHILE A STRONG E-W ORIENTED POLAR
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A VEIL OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD SUNDAY... SLIPPING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING
IN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO A
BONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY
BEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPT
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWN
TO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT
PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING
ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NW
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (AND
MUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSE
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TO
BUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
IN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...
MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OBSERVED FROM KFAY TO KRWI WILL
EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEAR TERM MODEL FORECAST ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS WILL REACH. CURRENTLY TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM KRDU
EASTWARD BY 08Z AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE...WHILE MORE PATCHY
AROUND KGSO AND KINT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING TO
WESTERLY AND ERODING THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE. ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED AND LIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY VFR. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
TO AROUND 20KT AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
345 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER BROAD NORTHWEST
GRADIENT FLOW. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN TO
NORTHEAST SD...IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING TOWARD ND FROM
SASKAT. THESE FEATURES GENERALLY PRODUCING SCT-BKN 4K-9K FT CLOUDS
OVER EASTERN ND TO WESTERN WI/SOUTHEAST MN. CLOUDS/MOISTURE IN
THE 700 TO 1500 FT RANGE OVER SOUTHWEST MN/SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHWEST
IA...ORIGINATING FROM THE SNOW COVER THERE AND STUCK IN/UNDER AN
INVERSION NEAR 900MB...WERE SPREADING EAST TOWARD THE FCST AREA.
THIS WITH WSR-88D MIGRATORY BIRD CONTAMINATED VAD WINDS INDICATING
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 40-50KTS AT 925MB. 07.00Z KABR/KMPX/KOMA RA-OBS
SHOWING THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 925MB ADVECTING THE CLOUDS
INTO THE FCST AREA.
07.00Z MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AT LEAST WITH THE MEDIUM TO LARGER SCALE
DETAILS. TIGHTER CONSENSUS TRENDS TOWARD STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS AS
THE SASKAT SHORTWAVE DROPS PAST THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND HGTS
START TO QUICKLY RISE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
MT BY 12Z FRI. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE
REASONABLE WITH THE CENTRAL NOAM SFC FIELDS. PER WV IMAGERY...ALL
LOOKED GOOD WITH THE SASKAT SHORTWAVE WHILE GEM/GFS/ECMWF LOOKED
BETTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE WAVE APPROACHING OR/WA. SHORT-TERM FCST
CONFIDENCE GOOD THIS CYCLE AND FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. INCREASING
SIGNAL AMONG HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
DEEPEN TO AS MUCH AS 700MB OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY. THIS AS THE
SASKAT SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO EASTERN IA BY 00Z. LOWER LEVEL LAPSES
RATES STEEPEN FOR LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL
WARMING AND 800-700MB COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SOME WEAK SFC-700MB FN CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FOR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. ADDED SPRINKLE/FLURRY
MENTION FOR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST 1/3 OF
THE FCST AREA. SFC-500MB RIDGING BUILD QUICKLY EAST INTO MN/IA/WI
TONIGHT. INCREASINGLY WESTERLY SFC-850MB WILL SCOUR THE LOWER
CLOUDS/MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE SPEED OF
THE NEXT WAVE AND THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ALREADY APPROACHING THE AREA
BY 12Z FRI...MOISTURE/CLOUDS ABOVE 500MB ALREADY START TO SPILL
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...THE QUICKLY PASSING SFC
RIDGE AXIS AND SFC GRADIENT WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN AROUND 5KTS
TONIGHT...DID NOT ADD ANY FOG MENTION TO FCST GRIDS FOR LATE
TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...-RA/
POSSIBLE -SN CHANCES FRI/FRI NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
07.00Z MODELS CONVERGING ON A TIGHTER CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR FRI/FRI
NIGHT AS THE WAVE OFF THE OR/WA COAST RACES TO NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS
BORDER BY 00Z SAT. GFS/ECMWF STRONGER/MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS
THAN NAM/GEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE AT 00Z SAT. GIVEN ITS APPEARANCE IN
WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS AT 00Z SAT
SEEM QUITE REASONABLE. ECMWF WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
AT 36/48HRS AS WELL. TIGHTER CONSENSUS FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT FAVORS
FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION FRI NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY RISING HGTS SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH
MODELS IN 2 CAMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FRI...FCST CONFIDENCE
IN THE FRI-SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE. SIDED WITH THE MODEL/
CONSENSUS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFS/ECMWF...WHICH PRESERVES SOME
FCST GRID CONSISTENCY UNTIL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES FRI/FRI NIGHT
SORT THEMSELVES OUT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRI AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 925-700MB WARM ADVECTION MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MUCH OF THIS GOES INTO
WARMING. MIXING DEPTHS TO BE LIMITED FRI DUE TO THE 925-850MB
WARMING. WINDS FRI/FRI EVENING LOOKING TO BE 10-20KTS G20-30KTS
UNTIL THE SFC FRONT PASSES. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRI INTO
FRI EVENING...MAINLY ABOVE 700MB. APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PROVIDES LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GIVEN THE DRY AND WARMING SFC-700MB
LAYER FOR PRECIP PARTICLES TO FALL THRU BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...
LEFT PRECIP CHANCES FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...
WHICH BLEND WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. WITH ALL THE 925-850MB
WARMING...BULK OF ANY PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING TO BE
-RA. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST
AREA WITH A COOLER COLUMN AND NORTH OF THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SFC-500MB LOW/
TROUGH SEND 925MB TEMPS BACK BELOW 0C BY 12Z SUN. TRENDED HIGHS/
LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT TOWARD THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 07.00Z ALREADY SHOWING SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON SUNDAY...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS TOWARD
LK SUPERIOR...GFS FASTER/ECMWF SLOWER. THESE DIFFERENCES LOOK TO
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER SUN...BUT DO LEAD TO
DIFFERENCES WHICH IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER MON/TUE AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMES IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CARVES OUT MORE TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. BETTER/IMPROVING CONSISTENCY WED AS THIS
TROUGHING EXITS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND STRONG/COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE REGION. MODEST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SUN/MON THEN
RATHER POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TUE/WED...BUT GIVEN SOME IMPROVING
BETWEEN MODEL CONSENSUS...THE DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS
CYCLE.
EVEN WITH SOME TROUGHING DIFFERENCES TO THE NORTH...THE PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE REGION AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. TROUGHING SLIDING BY TO THE
NORTHEAST SUN NIGHT/MON DRIVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE REGION.
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES IT AND WHERE SATURATION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER
THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING HIGH/COLD DOME WOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF
LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW. TRACK/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE REGION IMPACTS TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY SNOW BAND AS WELL.
WITH THE MODEST CONSISTENCY AND A SIGNAL AMONG GEM/GFS/ECMWF FOR AT
LEAST SOME 700-50000MB MOISTURE TO OVER-RIDE THE ADVANCING COOL DOME
MONDAY...ADDED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES. SMALL -SN CHANCES MON NIGHT/TUE
GOOD FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS. IMPROVING
SIGNAL FOR A LARGE/COLD CAN HIGH TO SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TUE/WED. GFS/ECMWF BOTH PROG 925MB TEMPS IN THE -7C TO -10C
RANGE LATE TUE...WARMING ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES BY LATE WED. TUE/WED
SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE COLD DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW-MID
30S. GIVEN THE MODEST/AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA SNOW PACK HAVE
SURVIVED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 07.03Z RAP HAS NOW GONE BACK TO
ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF CONTINUING TO BRING THESE CLOUDS EASTWARD
INTO BOTH TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS STILL NOT REAL HIGH AS
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE CLOUDS SURVIVE ONCE THEY MOVE OFF THE
SNOW PACK. NONE THE LESS...HAVE HONORED THE RAP SOLUTION AND
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES. IF THEY
DO MAKE IT IN...THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT CARRY THEM PAST MID
MORNING. THE 07.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE MOISTURE WORKING
SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND MANITOBA ACROSS MAINLY WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT HAS ALSO SLOWED THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SO OPTED TO
INCLUDE A BROKEN VFR CEILING AT KLSE WHILE JUST GOING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KRST. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT
WITH SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.
.&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 40S MOST
PLACES TODAY. IT APPEARS WE/LL BE CLOUDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NRN IA IS
EXPANDING AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS IS IN A REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE HRRR
IS DOING THE BEST JOB ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AT THIS
TIME.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE KICKING
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
GET PRETTY STEEP AND MOISTURE IN THE WEST EXTENDS TO ABOUT
7KFT...IT/S LESS IMPRESSIVE TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION DIVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST IL
THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING BACK CLEARING
SKIES BY MORNING.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AS DOES THE 500MB RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTS INTO OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS BRING A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THE NAM/CANADIAN TRACKS
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE
AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE DRIER NAM FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY ON SATURDAY. 500MB FLOW IS ZONAL DURING
THIS TIME. GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS...AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING OFF.
.SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MODEST AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY BRING
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THEY THEN BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT ON THE GFS...AND MONDAY ON THE ECMWF. NO 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE
ECMWF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIGHT SNOW THAN LIGHT RAIN DURING
THIS TIME...GIVEN COOL LOOK OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME.
ECMWF HAS AN AREA OF QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND LOW LEVEL FETCH. THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD...GIVEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES THIS FAR
OUT. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE COLD DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THERE IS AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA THAT IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND
EXPANDING WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS BEST AND HAS IT ROLLING INTO MADISON BY
ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING AND MILWAUKEE A FEW HOURS LATER. BY THAT
POINT IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY AN MVFR DECK THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SCOURING OUT
TOWARD LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
AT 3 PM...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN KANSAS WAS PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS PRODUCING A BROKEN
DECK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE 06.12Z AND 06.18Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE
CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB. WHILE THE 900 TO 850 MB LAPSE
RATES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 9 C/KM...THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY
SHALLOW...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THIS MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. THE GEM IS THE ONLY
MODEL THAT IS CURRENTLY GENERATING ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE GFS...GEM...AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND
WEAKER WITH ITS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
AIR BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER THE ALSO SHOW THAT THERE WILL BE DEEP
LIFT BETWEEN 700 AND 400 MB...AND STRONG 280-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS AREA. AS RESULT...EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO MAKE ITS WAY
TO THE GROUND. DUE TO THIS INCREASED THE PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS
OCCURS...MODERATE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 275 TO 285K ISENTROPIC
LIFT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN THE PRODUCTION OF
A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE GFS AND GEM AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE
ECMWF. GFS SOUNDINGS SOUNDINGS SHOW 100 TO 200 MB LOCATED IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THE GFS COBB LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO
CONTINUING TO RANGE FROM 13-16 TO 1...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES. HOWEVER IF THE LOWER QPF IS CORRECT
IN THE ECMWF...THESE TOTALS WOULD BE MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE. THESE SNOW TOTALS MAY BE EVEN LOWER IN THE GEM DUE TO ITS
FURTHER NORTHEAST TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IT IS ALSO FASTER WITH ITS SYSTEM. DUE TO
THESE COMPLEXITIES JUST KEPT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 30
PERCENT FOR NOW.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE 06.12Z GFS PRODUCED BAD SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 14.00Z. THE TEMPERATURES PLUNGED FROM
THE UPPER 20S AT 13.18Z TO AROUND 5F BY 14.00Z. THESE VALUES
SHOWED UP IN AWIPS AND COBB DATA. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE DEW
POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS IS PHYSICALLY NOT POSSIBLE.
THINKING THAT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN SOME TYPE DECODING ERROR IN THE
MODEL. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THESE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY MADE
THEIR WAY INTO GFE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FIELDS AND AFFECTED OUR ALL
BLEND TEMPERATURE DATA. AS A RESULT...CREATED THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITHOUT GFS BEING IN IT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA SNOW PACK HAVE
SURVIVED THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 07.03Z RAP HAS NOW GONE BACK TO
ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF CONTINUING TO BRING THESE CLOUDS EASTWARD
INTO BOTH TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS STILL NOT REAL HIGH AS
INTERESTED TO SEE IF THE CLOUDS SURVIVE ONCE THEY MOVE OFF THE
SNOW PACK. NONE THE LESS...HAVE HONORED THE RAP SOLUTION AND
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CEILINGS FOR BOTH SITES. IF THEY
DO MAKE IT IN...THE RAP SUGGESTS THEY WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DID NOT CARRY THEM PAST MID
MORNING. THE 07.00Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE MOISTURE WORKING
SOUTH FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND MANITOBA ACROSS MAINLY WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IT HAS ALSO SLOWED THE
SPEED AT WHICH THE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA SO OPTED TO
INCLUDE A BROKEN VFR CEILING AT KLSE WHILE JUST GOING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT KRST. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE/SCATTER OUT
WITH SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE
REGION, SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND THEN STALL.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ARE MODELED TO BE CONCENTRATED
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NW OF I95 WITH ANOTHER BAND ALONG THE COASTS.
TRIED TO MODEL A RELATIVE DRY SLOT OVER THE DELMARVA JUST EAST I95
INTO SW NJ. EVEN THERE...SHOWERS APPEAR PROBABLE...MAYBE ONLY .01
OR .02 AMTS THERE BUT BY MIDDAY IT SHOULD BE RAINING OVER MOST OF
OUR AREA.
SSW WIND GUST 20 MPH SHIFT NW 20-30 MPH THIS AFTN WITH CLEARING FM W
TO E TOWARD SUNSET.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/7 GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH FURTHER UPWARD
MODIFICATION OF THE MORNING/MIDDAY TEMPS USING THE 2M TEMPS OF THE
NAM/RGEM.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 4 TENTHS
OF AN INCH...NO SIGNIFICANT DENT IN THE RECENT 2 MONTHS OF DRYNESS.
THE 00Z/7 NSSL WRF APPEARS TOO FAR WEST WITH ITS RELATIVE DRY QPF
AXIS. I FAVORED THE 00/7 SPCWRF EVOLUTION TODAY AND CAN SEE ISOLATED
.2 TO .4 INCH AMTS...ESPECIALLY POCONOS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AT THIS TIME TOMORROW...5AM FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL BE 20 DEGREES COLDER
THAN THE CURRENT 5AM THURSDAY MORNING READINGS AND WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND ADDING FURTHER CHILL.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR AND COLDER WITH NW WIND GUST 15-20 MPH...ESPECIALLY
COAST AND TERRAIN.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/7 GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ALREADY POSTED
IN THE FCST.
PER THE 00Z/7 RGEM AND NAM HAVE GRIDDED SPRINKLES TO FLURRIES IN THE
POCONOS. DOESNT MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN BUT APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH RH BELOW
8000 FT AND ASSTD INSTABILITY (LARGE T1-T5 LAPSE RATES) TO SUPPORT
THE PCPN RISK THERE. THIS IS BENEATH THE 500MB STRONG SECONDARY
SHORT WAVE PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INTERESTINGLY... THE
00Z/7 ECMWF SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH RH AT 850 MB SWEEPING THROUGH THE
POCONOS AROUND 06Z/8.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES START TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA EXCEPT
FOR A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND THEN
SINK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS EASTERN CANADA AND DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE STILL
WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS IT REACHES OUR AREA AND FEW SHOWERS MIGHT MAKE
IT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION AND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS OR NEARBY OUR AREA AND
POINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN
AS OPPOSED TO SNOW.
THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE PERIOD TO WATCH WILL BE TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR FROM CANADA WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. 850 TEMPS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE -5 TO -10
RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF OUR AREA. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES FALL BELOW
540 AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST AND
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS, GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL BE ALONG THE
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR OUR REGION, AND STARTS TO MOVE UP THE COAST.
THE GFS IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE EURO SO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE AT THIS POINT. WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT IF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS
ITS COURSE, WE MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST FLAKES FOR THE SEASON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. TIMING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE AND ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL NEED TO LINE UP JUST RIGHT FOR THIS SYSTEM.
DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH A
COOLING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR CEILINGS TRYING TO LIFT AT 12Z BUT ITS POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
WILL REDEVELOP BACK TO KILG AND KPHL BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MY CONFIDENCE
ON CIG DETAILS THIS MORNING IS WELL BELOW AVG. THE BAND OF RAIN
MOVING NEWD FROM SE VA AND GRAZING KMIV WITH A MORE DIRECT HIT ON
KACY SHOULD KEEP IFR CIGS POTENTIAL MUCH OF THE MORE THERE.
IN THE MEANTIME...THE BULK OF THE COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD
PASS ACROSS KRDG/KABE BUT AS THAT FRONT MOVES THROUGH KPHL...CONDITIONS
MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR AS PER THE RUC MODEL.
THEN GUSTY NW 15-25KT FLOW ENSUES AND CIGS-CONDS SHOULD LIFT-IMPROVE
THIS AFTN.
TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND G15-20KT.
EXCEPTION THE POCONOS WHERE MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES LATE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
SWELL/PERIOD INFORMATION HAS NOW BEEN EXTENDED INTO PERIODS 3 AND
4. IF THERE ARE ANY MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THIS ADDED INFORMATION...PLEASE
LET US KNOW. THE IDEA IS TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE INFORMATION THAT
MAY OF VALUE TO SOME OF OUR MARINERS.
THIS SORT OF GOES IN HAND IN HAND WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE
CONSISTENT VALUE OF THE MODELED WAVE HEIGHT DATA AS THE NWS IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND THE NDFD WAVE HEIGHT GRID FROM 5 TO 6 DAYS IN EARLY DECEMBER.
SCA CONTINUES (SCA CONDITIONS WERE DELAYED ABOUT 5-6 HOURS THIS
MORNING FROM WHAT WE EXPECTED ATTM YDY). WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 22
KT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SLY FETCH IS BUILDING THE SEA STATE ON
THE ATLC WATERS AND AROUND 12Z...44009 SHOULD BE AT 5 FT.
THE GUSTY WINDS FOR ALL WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 KT THIS AFTN
SUBSEQUENT TO THE CFP.
TONIGHT...GUSTS WILL APPROACH 30 KT ON SOME OF THE WATERS...
ESPECIALLY DOWN THE DELAWARE BAY OUT THROUGH THE ATLC WATERS E OF
DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF ISOLATED NW FLOW GUSTS TO 35 KT
TONIGHT DOWN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING AS BOTH SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH 6PM
FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS PAST THAT BUT THE TREND IS FOR A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE END
TIME OF THE ADVISORY AS IS.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS RELAXING AND FALL
BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 650
SHORT TERM...DRAG 650
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 650
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 650
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1059 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The main focus of today`s discussion will be the cold frontal
passage expected to occur from west to east throughout today.
Currently it is located just east of Pensacola, and should clear
our eastern forecast area shortly after midnight. Current radar
and surface observations indicate light to moderate showers over
the western Florida Panhandle. Although some hi-res model guidance
suggests the line of showers dying before reaching the Big Bend,
these hi-res models didn`t initialize accurately. The HRRR has
consistently shown accurate representation of current shower
activity. Therefore decided to update PoP forecast based on the
HRRR`s evolution of showers throughout today. The main upper level
energy will continue to lift north, diminishing upper level
support for ongoing showers as they move eastward. Therefore
expect showers to fall apart as they move into our eastern zones.
Otherwise just made a few minor tweaks to the grids. Expect
clouds to increase from west to east, and then clear as the cold
front traverses our forecast area. Have a NW/SE temperature
gradient, with high temperatures in the lower 70s in our far
northwestern zones and lower 80s in are far southeastern zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday]...
The 500mb flow across much of the CONUS will become fairly zonal
tonight and Friday, as the trough currently translating eastward
over the eastern U.S. "lifts out" quickly to the northeast. The
airmass across our region will be quite dry and a little bit cooler
than what we`ve observed the past few days, so we expect fair
weather and for temperatures to be near climatology.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]... The long term looks to
feature relatively benign weather with zonal flow expected to be
in place through much of the period. This will yield partly to
mostly cloudy days with temperatures largely remaining at or just
a few degrees above climatology through the period. The only
notable exception to this may be toward the tail end of the long
term period when both the GFS and Euro are indicating the pattern
over the Eastern CONUS will become a little more amplified, thus
slightly elevating the potential for higher rain chances in the
region. However, confidence at this time range is low.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
Mid-morning conditions show improvement as fog then clouds begin
to lift to MVFR then VFR and remain so through 12z Fri. Cold
frontal passage will occur over our terminals today bringing the
chance for showers at ECP, DHN, ABY, and TLH. Confidence remains
low at this time if showers will hold to make it as far east as
VLD. Nly winds around 10 knots with gusts around 15-20 knots are
expected later today in the wake of a passing weak cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
There will be a lull in the winds and seas this morning as the
pressure gradient continues to weaken ahead of a cold front. Winds
and seas will then increase to advisory levels from west to east
behind the cold front late this afternoon into tonight, and
perhaps lingering on and off through Friday as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front with limited moisture will move across keeping RH
well above critical values. In its wake, a much drier airmass will
overspread the area on Fri. Minimum inland RH will drop into the
upper 20s but critical durations are not expected. Dispersion values
will remain within acceptable ranges each day. The airmass will
begin to moisten up again on Sat.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrology concerns are expected through the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 81 45 71 44 75 / 60 0 0 0 0
Panama City 76 48 69 51 73 / 60 0 0 0 0
Dothan 73 41 67 41 73 / 70 0 0 0 0
Albany 77 42 67 41 71 / 30 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 81 45 69 43 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 82 50 73 47 78 / 20 10 0 0 10
Apalachicola 78 50 69 52 72 / 60 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
Friday for Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Navarro/Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Navarro/Block
MARINE...Navarro/Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Forunier
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
954 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 953 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
Updated the zones/grids to beef up the cloud cover across the
forecast area today. Latest satellite imagery showing an area of
stratocumulus associated with a weak trough, which extends from
eastern Wisconsin to southern Iowa. leading wing of clouds has
reached as far southeast as Peoria and Lincoln, with some lower
clouds closer to the trough itself. Latest RAP model showing this
spreading into the eastern CWA by early afternoon, while clearing
out northwest of the Illinois River, and most areas should be
mostly clear again by late afternoon except near the Indiana
border. Have also nudged down temperatures a bit across the north
with the increased clouds.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
A weak front/trof will cross the central Illinois terminals today,
resulting in a slight wind shift from west southwest to west
northwest. While no precipitation is expected with this feature,
it may be accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs. There are clouds
currently in the vicinity of the boundary diving southeast across
Iowa per satellite loops. These clouds, or potential diurnal
development would result in the cigs locally. In any event, the
cloud coverage should diminish with time this afternoon, and the
heights will rise above MVFR levels. Any cigs that do develop will
scatter out by sunset. Little or no cloud cover is expected
through the night.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night
00Z forecast model suite is in fair agreement through this weekend
as dry and seasonably cool conditions occur. A couple of weather
system systems will pass by with just some passing clouds.
Extended models like ECMWF and GFS have trended much colder with a
stronger upper level low/trof into the eastern states during the
middle of next week. As a result have trended forecaster colder
and extended mixed precipitation chances further south especially
Tuesday night.
Early morning surface map reveals a cold front along the
Appalachians while 1030 mb high pressure was over OK and ridging
ne into MO/IL. Skies cleared during the night across central/se IL
with much cooler temps in the low to mid 30s with Galesburg down
to 29 degrees. WNW winds had settled to near 10 mph or less during
overnight hours. Aloft a broad upper level trof was over the MS
river valley with upper level ridge off the east coast and another
upper level trof off the Pacific NW coast.
West breezes to bring a cooler day on tap today across central/se
IL despite partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs mostly in the lower
50s with a few upper 40s from I-74 ne where clouds appear during
the day. 1030 mb high pressure settles into western KY/TN by dawn
Friday and ridging northward into IL and brings fair skies,
lighter winds and frosty lows of 27-32F. Leaned toward the cooler
guidance for lows tonight with good rational cooling expected.
High pressure drifts east into the mid Atlantic states by Friday
evening while a fairly strong northern stream short wave off the
Pacific NW coast races eastward into the western great lakes
region Friday night. This to be far enough north to keep its light
precipitation north of I-80 with just some passing clouds
especially over northern CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Highs
Friday of 50-55F and lows Friday night in the upper 30s and lower
40s with coolest readings in se IL where lighter winds and less
cloud cover.
A fair amount of sunshine expected Saturday with breezy sw winds
and gusts of 20-25 mph and brings milder temps around 60F or lower
60s sw counties and se IL. High pressure settles into the region
Sunday and continues fair weather with temperatures starting to cool
with highs lower 50s from I-74 north and upper 50s in southeast IL.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Dry conditions to continue one more day on Monday as high pressure
tracks to the mid Atlantic coast by noon Monday and a cold front
moves se into IL by Monday afternoon with increasing clouds. Highs
in the 50s for one more day Monday and then much cooler weather
expected for the middle of next week.
Both 00Z ECMWF and GFS models now show a strong cutoff low of
535-540 dm at 500 mb forming in the eastern states by Wednesday.
Large short wave to dive southward across IL Monday night and Tuesday
and bring a chance of rain showers and then diminishing from the
north on Wednesday. 850 mb temps drop to minus 8-12C by Wednesday
and enough cold air to bring chance of light snow showers too
starting in areas from I-74 north on Tue, across all of central IL
by overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs in the upper 30s
and lower 40s Wed and Thu with dry conditions returning to region
Wed night and Thu and precipitation chances shift se of central IL
as strong upper level low pulls away from IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
548 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE ENTERED OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER ROUGHLY OUR NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH OR SCATTER OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
BUT THERE IS SOME DEBATE HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS ACTUALLY LINGER TODAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND UPDATE WHEN/IF NEEDED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SD TO EASTERN NEB WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN SE SD
YESTERDAY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
EVER SINCE. CURRENTLY THIS AREA OF STRATUS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT 31 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE AWIPS
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
BEING THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT NIGHT
THIS STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR TAKES THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 AND THEN DIMINISHES/MOVES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR FOR CLOUD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF/WHEN NEEDED. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
SNOW FIELD THAT COVERS SW MN INTO NEB AND SD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ADDING
A CHILL TO THE AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S IN SOME FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT BEST THERE
MAY BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ELSEWHERE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG
THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE TREND AMONG ALL THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY COLDER WITH A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS COOLER IT IS STILL QUITE WARM. SO IF SNOW DOES OCCUR
MUCH OF IT SHOULD MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KBRL. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN AS
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDS WITH SKC. SOUTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL TURN NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH OCNL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WEST
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
NEAR CALM LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
952 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
943 AM UPDATE: COLD FRONT NEARING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ALL BUT DOWNEAST
MAINE, ALTHOUGH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TWEAKED PRECIP TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST.
WIND GUSTS SO FAR HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST GUST
SO FAR BEING 36 MPH AT WINTER HARBOR, BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE
FOR NOW AS EVEN THESE WINDS JUST A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN
DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS.
707 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FURTHER S TOWARD HUL AND MLT BACK TOWARD GNR. THE LATEST RAP STILL
HOLDING ON WELL W/ITS SETUP OF DRIVING THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
STABLE LAYER IN THE LLVLS KEEPING 45-50KT JET ABOVE THE SFC.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME OF THIS JET MIXING AFT 13Z
W/SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 STILL POSSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS FCST
TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT W/AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BY EVENING RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE BEST Q- VECTOR FORCING AS
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. A STRONG LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS OF 50-55
KTS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING W/THE STRONGEST
JET ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS JET AXIS WILL ALSO AID IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY. FURTHER N, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER W/DAYTIME
HIGHS HITTING THE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR 60 FOR EASTERN MAINE. 00Z UA SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF 10-12C
TEMPERATURES AT 850-925MBS RESPECTIVELY.
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING W/PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BACK BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REALLY FALL BACK AFTER
00-03Z TIME-FRAME AS CAA MAKES IT WAY DOWN TO THE BLYR. ADJUSTED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FROM THE DAYCREW`S FCST TO THE MID/UPPER
20S NORTH AND WEST AND AROUND 30 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. A FEW FLURRIES COULDNT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE SNOW CHANGING TO A
SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/TEMPO VFR FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS &
IFR ACROSS KFVE EARLY THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
DROP TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER N, MVFR W/TEMPO IFR AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING & THEN VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. LLWS A
CONCERN THROUGH LATE MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HOLD HANG ON TO
MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI)
ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVRF/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SN/RN AND LOW
CIGS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS AND SCT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WINDS SHOWING 20
TO 25 KTS TODAY W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS. SEAS ALREADY UP
TO 6-7 FT AND EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT TODAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SCA CATEGORY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED W/SEAS HOLDING AT 6
FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
DECREASING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
711 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
707 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FURTHER S TOWARD HUL AND MLT BACK TOWARD GNR. THE LATEST RAP STILL
HOLDING ON WELL W/ITS SETUP OF DRIVING THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
STABLE LAYER IN THE LLVLS KEEPING 45-50KT JET ABOVE THE SFC.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME OF THIS JET MIXING AFT 13Z
W/SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 STILL POSSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS FCST
TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT W/AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BY EVENING RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE BEST Q- VECTOR FORCING AS
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. A STRONG LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS OF 50-55
KTS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING W/THE STRONGEST
JET ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS JET AXIS WILL ALSO AID IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY. FURTHER N, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER W/DAYTIME
HIGHS HITTING THE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR 60 FOR EASTERN MAINE. 00Z UA SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF 10-12C
TEMPERATURES AT 850-925MBS RESPECTIVELY.
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING W/PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BACK BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REALLY FALL BACK AFTER
00-03Z TIME-FRAME AS CAA MAKES IT WAY DOWN TO THE BLYR. ADJUSTED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FROM THE DAYCREW`S FCST TO THE MID/UPPER
20S NORTH AND WEST AND AROUND 30 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. A FEW FLURRIES COULDNT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE SNOW CHANGING TO A
SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/TEMPO VFR FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS &
IFR ACROSS KFVE EARLY THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
DROP TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER N, MVFR W/TEMPO IFR AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING & THEN VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. LLWS A
CONCERN THROUGH LATE MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HOLD HANG ON TO
MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI)
ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVRF/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SN/RN AND LOW
CIGS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS AND SCT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WINDS SHOWING 20
TO 25 KTS TODAY W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS. SEAS ALREADY UP
TO 6-7 FT AND EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT TODAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SCA CATEGORY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED W/SEAS HOLDING AT 6
FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
DECREASING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
640 AM EST THU NOV 07 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH BREEZY AND COOLER
WEATHER ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...
RAIN HAS BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING..MAINLY EAST OF US HWY 1...IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT AND ONLY PRODUCING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN...THOUGH A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAP SHOWING WEAK 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS AND GROWING DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AS THE CAPPING INVERSION ERODES. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN BELOW 0.1"-0.2". AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY BY THE TIME THE
FRONT CROSS CENTRAL NC BETWEEN 18Z TO 00Z. THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH
DRY UP ALL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. MODEST PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
RANGE...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.
DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO 925MB AT 18Z...PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION...YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEST AND LOWER 70S EAST.
HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE SINCE
STRATUS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND RELATIVELY THICK THIS MORNING BEFORE
BEING ERODED BY WESTERLY FLOW AROUND MIDDAY. 64-71. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND COLD
ADVECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY AND THEN SETTLING OVER CENTRAL NC
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1310M FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S AND COOLER THAN
MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER NC
SATURDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL WEAKEN AND SPLIT... WITH PIECES OF THE RIDGE
HEADING OFFSHORE AND TO OUR WEST AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLIGHTLY
JUST OFF THE NC COAST. THIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES WITHIN THE FLAT AND FAST MID
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS. THE BETTER KINEMATICS AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING
WAVE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR NORTH... AS WILL THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RELATIVELY DRY COLUMN OVER
CENTRAL NC... SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST. THE PREDICTED PROFILE
OF TEMP/MOISTURE/WIND SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS
SATURDAY NIGHT... PRIMARILY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE ALOFT HOLDS TO OUR NORTH. OTHERWISE... SKIES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. DESPITE THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE... THE COOL
START AND SHALLOW MIXING SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY FLAT
BUT GENTLY CYCLONIC OVER THE ERN CONUS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE NE COAST... PUSHED BY A STRONGER VORTEX WHICH
MOVES FROM NRN MANITOBA ACROSS ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEP WNW FLOW HOLDS OVER NC... DRAWING A PIECE OF CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER NC... WHILE A STRONG E-W ORIENTED POLAR
FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. EXPECT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A VEIL OF HIGH THIN
CLOUDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE MILD SUNDAY... SLIPPING BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY AS THE HEART OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE CALM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE COMING
TO AN END BY MIDWEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TREND TOWARD
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NC TUESDAY... LIKELY PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY
EVENING OR NIGHT... PROPELLED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES OVER NC ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUNGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CHILLY AIR MASS BUILDING
IN... FALLING AT GSO TO 1305 M ON THE 00Z/07 GFS AND TO A
BONE-CHILLING 1275 M ON THE 00Z/07 ECMWF (WHICH SEEMS FAR TOO LOW
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THESE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING THIS
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING THROUGH THE MID MISS VALLEY
BEFORE CLOSING OFF A LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY... WHICH WOULD PROMPT
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
MIDATLANTIC AND NRN NC. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW INCREASES IN DEPTH DOWN
TO 700-850 MB... STRENGTHENING SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALOFT MAY BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IT`S HARD TO IGNORE THAT
PROJECTED PARTIAL THICKNESSES ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO BRING
ABOUT A CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE WINTRY PRECIP IN OUR FAR NRN AND NW
SECTIONS... ALTHOUGH THE 00Z/07 ECMWF IS AT SUCH AN EXTREME (AND
MUCH STRONGER/COLDER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN)... WITH ITS 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING WELL BELOW ZERO (TO -9C AT GSO) AND A PARTICULARLY INTENSE
MID LEVEL VORTEX OVER WV BY THURSDAY MORNING... THAT IT`S TOUGH TO
BUY INTO IT. SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS SO MUCH MORE DRAMATIC THAN ITS
PREVIOUS RUN AND WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM ITS WASHED-OUT ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN... FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CHILLY (BUT ABOVE-FREEZING)
TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. BUT THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES
IN THERMAL STRUCTURE... IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS RANGE...
MODELS DO AGREE ON AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
AN UNIMPEDED TAP INTO TRUE POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION AND AT LEAST
SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INFLUX. STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD...
RAIN IS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FROM KRDU EASTWARD WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
AND VSBYS IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE FORCING FOR THIS PRECIP WILL SHIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER
BEHIND UNTIL A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS SHOW WESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL AID IN SCOURING
CEILINGS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 15-18Z AND WILL LIMITING PRECIP
ALONG THE FRONT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES IN TO THE AREA AFTER
18Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST TO AROUND 20KT AND
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 AM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES EAST ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF MILD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST THURSDAY...LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES WITH A DRYING PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY THEREFORE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST REDUCING POPS WILL GO UNCHANGED. OTHERWISE...LOW STRATUS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPSTATE AND
NC MOUNTAINS WILL SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE FROPA. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR EARLY ONSET STRATO CU. FINALLY...TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 135 AM EST THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF
EAST/CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LEVEL STRATO CU CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL UPSTATE.
AS FOR THE FROPA...EXPECTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES BY
DAYBREAK. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE CWFA. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
DECREASING QPF EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...HIGHLIGHTED CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY ON BEFORE INTRODUCING
A GRADUAL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ALL MENTIONABLE POPS
REMOVED BY 00Z FRIDAY. NEITHER INSTABILITY NOR SHEAR LOOK TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THUS NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPSTATE AND INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FRENCH
BROAD RIVER VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELING EFFECTS. LIKEWISE...BEHIND THE
FRONT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AS BULK MOISTURE LEVELS DROP
OFF. WITH THAT...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING A
PLEASANT/COOLER NIGHT AHEAD. SPEAKING OF TEMPERATURES...EXPECTING
HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
EFFECTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM
8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EST THURSDAY...LLVL SFC RIDGING BENEATH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SUNSHINE...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES OF 2 TO 3
CATEGORIES BELOW CLIMO ON FRIDAY. AS SFC RIDGING SHIFTS TO THE COAST
ON SATURDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES. SENSIBLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AS BARELY DISCERNIBLE FRONT SLIPS BY OFF TO
OUR NORTH. LLVL RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE WARMING TREND BOOSTS MAX TEMPERATURE TO AROUND NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EST THURSDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z
MONDAY WITH A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER LVL PATTERN OVER THE REGION AND
BROAD UPPER RIDING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUES AT WHICH TIME THE POLAR JET DIVES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE MISS RIVER VALLEY
BY EARLY WED. BEYOND THIS POINT OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT WITH THE LATEST 00Z RUN OF THE GFS CLOSING OFF A
WELL DEFINED H5 LOW JUST TO OUR NW BY 00Z THURS AND THE ECMWF DOING
THE SAME...BUT WITH A SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER LOW.
AT THE SFC...A REINFORCING CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EARLY MONDAY. THE HIGH
DISSIPATES AS WE MOVE INTO TUES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BEYOND THIS POINT STILL UNCLEAR. THE GFS KEEPS ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH WELL TO OUR WEST WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY TRYING TO SPIN
UP A LOW OFF THE SE COAST. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE OF A
MOIST...WEDGE LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINAS THRU DAY 7 WITH THE
PARENT HIGH PERSISTING TO OUR NORTH. I HAVE INCREASE POPS UP TO
SOLID CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WED
AND THURS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS. TEMP TRENDS WERE NOT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...WILL INITIALIZE TAF WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG FOR
THE FIRST 2 HOURS BEFORE RETURNING TO LOW END VFR LEVELS. DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD AND PULL MENTION OF SHRA AT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON
AS LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY. THEREFORE REPLACED MENTION OF -SHRA WITH VCSH FOR THE 19Z
GROUP. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO SOLID VFR
LEVELS WITH HIGH ALTITUDE CIRRUS HANGING AROUND. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL INCREASE AND VEER NORTH OF WEST AROUND THE 19Z TIMEFRAME
AS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES BY. LATE IN THE PERIOD SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
ELSEWHERE...A MIXTURE OF VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL INITIALIZE TAF WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AT ALL SC SITES AND KAVL DUE TO FOG BEFORE LOWERING CIGS TO HIGH END
MVFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. AT THAT TIME INTRODUCED MENTION OF -SHRA AS SHOWERS SHOULD BE
SLOW ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THAT AT LEAST SOME SHRA WILL BE
OBSERVED. WILL HOLD MVFR CIGS THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES SCT OUT YIELDING SKC CONDITIONS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR KHKY...WILL INITIALIZE TAF WITH MENTION
OF MVFR FOG WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2HR TEMPO FOR POSSIBLE IFR VISB
RESTRICTIONS. BEYOND THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS
WITH MENTION OF VCSH AS SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OUT AHEAD OF FROPA.
AS WITH THE OTHER LOCATIONS...SKY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE
IN SPEED AND VEER NORTHERLY AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH EACH
LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON ADJACENT
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL DUE TO CHANNELING IN THE FRENCH BROAD
RIVER VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRES RETURNS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z
KCLT HIGH 86% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP MED 75% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 73% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 74% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 81% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1140 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
328 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY NEXT WEEK`S BIG
PATTERN CHANGE SEEING AS THOUGH WX SHOULD BE PRETTY UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER A SUNNY AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY COULD SEE CLOUD COVER
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH THAT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER ASS WELL. FAST MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN A COUPLE OF FROPAS AND SOME TEMP SWINGS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT NOT MUCH THREAT OF PRECIP.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE FAST
MOVING LOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY
STEADY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH BEST FORCING
STAYS TO OUR NORTH...SO WITH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD BE A
MAJOR VIRGA OUTBREAK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES AND
POSSIBLY A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS VEER BUT REMAIN ELEVATED SATURDAY WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OUT AND ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. HEALTHY SHOT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHWEST VEERING WEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH EVEN SOME LOW 60S POSSIBLE
(ESPECIALLY SOUTH). WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACCOMPANYING A QUICK MOVING WEAK SFC HIGH
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.
BIG PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING OUR AREA THE FIRST REAL
TASTE OF WINTER NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT BEST AT
THIS DISTANCE. THE POWERHOUSE STORM THAT HAS BEEN LAMBASTING THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN ALASKA WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND
40FT+ WAVES IS FORECAST TO BREAK INTO A COUPLE PIECES ALOFT...ONE
DIVING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND CLOSING OFF INTO A
STRONG CUT OFF LOW. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CREST AN AMPLIFYING...ALMOST OMEGA BLOCK LIKE...RIDGE
THAT DEVELOPS OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS THEN FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY BRINGING A SUBSTANTIAL DUMP
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SOUTH WITH IT.
AMAZINGLY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLES...THE ECMWF...AND EVEN THE GEM
ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR
EVOLUTION...LENDING SOME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO MAINLY THE MUCH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST DROP 850MB TEMPS INTO THE -10C TO -12C RANGE...WHICH
LOOKING UPPER AIR CLIMO FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NOVEMBER DATING BACK
TO 1979...THIS WOULD BE AMONG THE TOP 3-5% OF COLDEST AIR MASSES TO
AFFECT THE AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE OFTEN OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH ARCTIC AIR IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED VERY COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN AM
RELUCTANT TO GO AS COLD AS THESE TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT (HIGHS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING)...BUT DID LOWER HIGHS BELOW OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
FOR TUES/WED HIGHS. OPTED TO KEEP LOWS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CLOSER
TO GUIDANCE WITH THE ALMOST CERTAIN OVERCAST CONDITIONS IF CURRENT
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE EVEN THE SLIGHTEST WHIFF OF HOW THINGS PAN OUT.
SUCH A MASSIVE DUMP OF COLD AIR WITH A CLOSING OFF UPPER LOW IN THE
REGION SHOULD LOCK IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPS
IN THE CLOUD LAYER IT WOULD BE VERY EASY FOR THE CLOUDS TO LEAK AT
LEAST OCNL FLURRIES IN THE CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES FOR SOME MEASURABLE SNOW COULD RESULT FROM ANY SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TRANSLATING THROUGH THIS AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND ALSO VIA LAKE
EFFECT. TRYING TO FORECAST ANY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH
THIS COMPLEX FLOW WOULD BE FUTILE AT THIS POINT...SO NO SENSE IN
EVEN TALKING ABOUT WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AS IT WILL ALMOST
UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE MULTIPLE TIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ECMWF/GFS BOTH FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SET UP WHERE
EVER DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN ENDS UP BEING (TOO SOON TO
CONFIDENTLY PREDICT WIND FIELDS THIS FAR OUT)...BUT CURRENT FORECAST
DELTA-T VALUES NEAR 20C WITH HIGH EL HEIGHTS IN VICINITY OF THE
UPPER LOW COULD ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE LAKE
EFFECT SOMEWHERE. HAVE KEPT POPS MODEST...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKE...AND
HAVE SWITCHED P-TYPE IN THE FORECAST TO ALL SNOW GIVEN THE
FORECASTED TEMPS.
FOR THOSE OF US NOT READY FOR WINTER...BETTER MAKE PLANS TO ENJOY
SATURDAY!
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND CEILING TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRATUS DECK GRADUALLY ADVECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. WITH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING HELPING TO WARM THE SURFACE
AHEAD OF THE STRATUS DECK...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS HAS
LIFTED TO BE PRIMARILY VFR AS IT MOVES INTO THE WARMER AIR...WITH
MVFR LEVEL CIGS STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE MUCH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. OVER SW WI/SE MN...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THERE IS A THINNING OF THE STRATUS WITH SUBTLE CLOUD STREETS
EMBEDDED INDICATING THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MAY SQUEEZE OUT A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...THOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. BEHIND THE WAVE SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP
TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER...WHICH SHOULD ALSO FADE WITH SUNSET AS IT
CONTINUES TO TAKE ON MORE STRATOCU CHARACTERISTICS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT AS SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...SOME OF THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME TRAPPED UNDER THE
LOWERING INVERSION TONIGHT INSTEAD OF SCATTERING OUT...LEADING TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR THIS APPEARS TO STAY JUST
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THOUGH...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WITH
THE IDEA OF SCATTERING/CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM NEAR OSH SOUTHWEST TO MLI...AND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
SLIGHTLY TO THE WNW AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS WE LOSE
SUNLIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT WINDS TO DROP
INTO THE 5-8KT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. S WINDS INCREASING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR. MODERATE SW WIND BECOMING W.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR TIL LATE IN THE DAY THEN MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. MINOR
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
330 AM CST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT FURTHER AND BECOME WEST THIS
MORNING BUT WILL THE VEER BACK TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES LAKE MI. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LARGE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN
BACK TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MOVES TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND A LOW MOVES EAST
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN DURING
FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD AND REACHING WESTERN ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH GALE FORCE FOR A PERIOD FROM
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PREDAWN SATURDAY...MAINLY
ON SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH STRONG BREEZES PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH
MODERATE NORTH BREEZES ON THE LAKE AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH WILL
MOVES FROM CENTRAL CANADA TO OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MUCH OF THE
INDIANA NEARSHORE WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE...THOUGH MAY BE
CANCELLED BY MIDDAY IF WAVES SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS A RESULT OF WINDS
BACKING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD AGAIN.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1113 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 953 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
Updated the zones/grids to beef up the cloud cover across the
forecast area today. Latest satellite imagery showing an area of
stratocumulus associated with a weak trough, which extends from
eastern Wisconsin to southern Iowa. leading wing of clouds has
reached as far southeast as Peoria and Lincoln, with some lower
clouds closer to the trough itself. Latest RAP model showing this
spreading into the eastern CWA by early afternoon, while clearing
out northwest of the Illinois River, and most areas should be
mostly clear again by late afternoon except near the Indiana
border. Have also nudged down temperatures a bit across the north
with the increased clouds.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1112 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
A couple hours of MVFR ceilings expected around KPIA/KBMI early
this afternoon, as a weak surface trough swings through the area.
Surface obs showing 1700 foot ceilings as close as KGBG as of 17Z.
Clouds have also increased further south ahead of the trough, but
should stay above 3000 feet before becoming mostly clear again.
Have kept some brief gusts to around 15-20 knots following the
passage of the trough. Northwest winds behind the trough will
trend more toward the south late tonight, as a ridge of high
pressure slides by. Some increase in mid and high clouds expected
late Friday morning ahead of a warm front.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 325 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night
00Z forecast model suite is in fair agreement through this weekend
as dry and seasonably cool conditions occur. A couple of weather
system systems will pass by with just some passing clouds.
Extended models like ECMWF and GFS have trended much colder with a
stronger upper level low/trof into the eastern states during the
middle of next week. As a result have trended forecaster colder
and extended mixed precipitation chances further south especially
Tuesday night.
Early morning surface map reveals a cold front along the
Appalachians while 1030 mb high pressure was over OK and ridging
ne into MO/IL. Skies cleared during the night across central/se IL
with much cooler temps in the low to mid 30s with Galesburg down
to 29 degrees. WNW winds had settled to near 10 mph or less during
overnight hours. Aloft a broad upper level trof was over the MS
river valley with upper level ridge off the east coast and another
upper level trof off the Pacific NW coast.
West breezes to bring a cooler day on tap today across central/se
IL despite partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs mostly in the lower
50s with a few upper 40s from I-74 ne where clouds appear during
the day. 1030 mb high pressure settles into western KY/TN by dawn
Friday and ridging northward into IL and brings fair skies,
lighter winds and frosty lows of 27-32F. Leaned toward the cooler
guidance for lows tonight with good rational cooling expected.
High pressure drifts east into the mid Atlantic states by Friday
evening while a fairly strong northern stream short wave off the
Pacific NW coast races eastward into the western great lakes
region Friday night. This to be far enough north to keep its light
precipitation north of I-80 with just some passing clouds
especially over northern CWA by Friday afternoon/evening. Highs
Friday of 50-55F and lows Friday night in the upper 30s and lower
40s with coolest readings in se IL where lighter winds and less
cloud cover.
A fair amount of sunshine expected Saturday with breezy sw winds
and gusts of 20-25 mph and brings milder temps around 60F or lower
60s sw counties and se IL. High pressure settles into the region
Sunday and continues fair weather with temperatures starting to cool
with highs lower 50s from I-74 north and upper 50s in southeast IL.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Dry conditions to continue one more day on Monday as high pressure
tracks to the mid Atlantic coast by noon Monday and a cold front
moves se into IL by Monday afternoon with increasing clouds. Highs
in the 50s for one more day Monday and then much cooler weather
expected for the middle of next week.
Both 00Z ECMWF and GFS models now show a strong cutoff low of
535-540 dm at 500 mb forming in the eastern states by Wednesday.
Large short wave to dive southward across IL Monday night and Tuesday
and bring a chance of rain showers and then diminishing from the
north on Wednesday. 850 mb temps drop to minus 8-12C by Wednesday
and enough cold air to bring chance of light snow showers too
starting in areas from I-74 north on Tue, across all of central IL
by overnight Tuesday night and Wednesday. Highs in the upper 30s
and lower 40s Wed and Thu with dry conditions returning to region
Wed night and Thu and precipitation chances shift se of central IL
as strong upper level low pulls away from IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1152 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
THE AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND HAS ACTUALLY EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 24 KNOTS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAVE ENTERED OUR NW COUNTIES AND THE LATEST
TRENDS INDICATE THE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER ROUGHLY OUR NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH OR SCATTER OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
BUT THERE IS SOME DEBATE HOW LONG THESE CLOUDS ACTUALLY LINGER TODAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS AND UPDATE WHEN/IF NEEDED.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE DVN CWA WITH LIGHT WEST OR NORTHWEST
WINDS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SD TO EASTERN NEB WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THEN WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST AGAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER THE SNOW FIELD IN SE SD
YESTERDAY HAS HELD TOGETHER AND HAS BEEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
EVER SINCE. CURRENTLY THIS AREA OF STRATUS WAS PUSHING ACROSS
NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN MN AT 31 KNOTS...ACCORDING TO THE AWIPS
DISTANCE SPEED TOOL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD TRENDS TODAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TODAY...THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT SEEMS TO HAVE A
HANDLE ON THE LOW STRATUS SPREADING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA.
BEING THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AT NIGHT
THIS STRATUS MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE HRRR TAKES THE CLOUDS AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80 AND THEN DIMINISHES/MOVES THE CLOUDS EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. WILL FOLLOW THE
HRRR FOR CLOUD TRENDS IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW AND WILL MONITOR AND
MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF/WHEN NEEDED. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THE AREA MOVES AWAY FROM THE DEEPER
SNOW FIELD THAT COVERS SW MN INTO NEB AND SD. NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GUST TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ADDING
A CHILL TO THE AIR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE CWA. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL CREATE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...POSSIBLY LOWER 20S IN SOME FAVORED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING IS NORTH OF THE AREA. AT BEST THERE
MAY BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WITH PLENTY OF VIRGA ELSEWHERE. THUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AS THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
SUNDAY ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER WEATHER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
WEAK STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG
THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY YIELDS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR LINGERING PRECIPITATION.
THE TREND AMONG ALL THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO GET SLOWLY COLDER WITH A
CONTINUOUS FEED OF DRY COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO TURN OVER TO ALL SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE GROUND IS COOLER IT IS STILL QUITE WARM. SO IF SNOW DOES OCCUR
MUCH OF IT SHOULD MELT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
MVFR STRATOCU BKN-OVC DECK IMPACTING MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING
STARTING TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND DECAY ON IT/S WESTERN FRINGE TO
SCTRD. THIS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL TROF AND VORT ALOFT
OVERHEAD WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
WITH SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THUS EXPECT CONTINUED CLOUD
DECAY/CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-22KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WITH ARRIVAL OF PASSING SFC RIDGE.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...THEN A WING OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
DRIFT ACRS THE AREA FRI MORNING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHING EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO 10-15 KTS BY LATE FRI
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. ..12..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1211 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1205 PM UPDATE: COLD FRONT NOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST MAINE, WITH RAIN BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. FORECAST HAD
THIS HANDLED WELL, AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES. ALSO, ALLOWED
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOWNEAST COAST TO EXPIRE AT NOON.
943 AM UPDATE: COLD FRONT NEARING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER, WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ALL BUT DOWNEAST
MAINE, ALTHOUGH EXPECT RAIN TO REACH DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST. TWEAKED PRECIP TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT TRENDS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR COASTAL DOWNEAST.
WIND GUSTS SO FAR HAVE NOT BEEN THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH HIGHEST GUST
SO FAR BEING 36 MPH AT WINTER HARBOR, BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY RIDE
FOR NOW AS EVEN THESE WINDS JUST A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA CAN
DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS.
707 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES TO FOCUS THE LINE OF SHOWERS
FURTHER S TOWARD HUL AND MLT BACK TOWARD GNR. THE LATEST RAP STILL
HOLDING ON WELL W/ITS SETUP OF DRIVING THE LINE OF SHOWERS INTO
CENTRAL MAINE LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
STABLE LAYER IN THE LLVLS KEEPING 45-50KT JET ABOVE THE SFC.
LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME OF THIS JET MIXING AFT 13Z
W/SOME GUSTS UP TO 40 STILL POSSIBLE ESP ACROSS THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE STATE THIS MORNING AND IS FCST
TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REACH THE
DOWNEAST REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT W/AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BY EVENING RANGING
FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO THE BEST Q- VECTOR FORCING AS
DEPICTED BY THE NAM. A STRONG LLVL JET FROM 925-850MBS OF 50-55
KTS IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING W/THE STRONGEST
JET ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS JET AXIS WILL ALSO AID IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COAST THROUGH ABOUT 16Z TODAY. FURTHER N, GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER W/DAYTIME
HIGHS HITTING THE 50S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE W/THE POTENTIAL OF
NEAR 60 FOR EASTERN MAINE. 00Z UA SHOWED A WARM NOSE OF 10-12C
TEMPERATURES AT 850-925MBS RESPECTIVELY.
SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS EVENING W/PARTIAL CLEARING.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO FALL BACK BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. READINGS WILL REALLY FALL BACK AFTER
00-03Z TIME-FRAME AS CAA MAKES IT WAY DOWN TO THE BLYR. ADJUSTED
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN FROM THE DAYCREW`S FCST TO THE MID/UPPER
20S NORTH AND WEST AND AROUND 30 FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION.&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY KEEPING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOWNEAST. A FEW FLURRIES COULDNT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
EVENING AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS TO LOW
LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING A PERIOD OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE ACROSS THE NORTH WOULD BE SNOW CHANGING TO A
SNOW/RAIN MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN DOWN EAST. QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE LIGHT BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
PERHAPS AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO CROSS THE REGION DURING MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
EXPECTED. A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES NORTH AND WEST AND PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR W/TEMPO VFR FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS &
IFR ACROSS KFVE EARLY THIS MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE MVFR
DROP TO IFR LATER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APCHG COLD FRONT.
FURTHER N, MVFR W/TEMPO IFR AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING & THEN VFR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION. LLWS A
CONCERN THROUGH LATE MORNING. KBGR AND KBHB WILL HOLD HANG ON TO
MVFR CIGS A WHILE LONGER INTO EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ACROSS
THESE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES (KFVE/KCAR/KPQI)
ON FRIDAY OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MVRF/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SN/RN AND LOW
CIGS. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO CIGS AND SCT SHSN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED OUT TO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION.
A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 WAS USED FOR THE WINDS SHOWING 20
TO 25 KTS TODAY W/GUSTS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HRS. SEAS ALREADY UP
TO 6-7 FT AND EXPECTING HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 7-9 FT TODAY.
WINDS/SEAS WILL DROP OFF SOME TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE SCA CATEGORY. GUSTS OF 25 KTS EXPECTED W/SEAS HOLDING AT 6
FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
DECREASING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
345 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
A SURFACE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING SHOWERS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LAKE SHORE AREA...
MOSTLY SOUTH OF MUSKEGON THIS EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CLEAR THE SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FRIDAY PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE BUT
CHILLY TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST ALONG OR
JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER WILL BRING A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FINALLY A STRONG COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW.... THEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EVEN IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
THERE ARE TWO ISSUES OF PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRST IS THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS EVENING... PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND WEST OF GRAND RAPIDS. THEN THERE IS THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE WARM FRONT FOR THE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST ALONG THE
CANADIAN BOARDER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS SEEN ON BOTH THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOPS...IR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE LOOPS... THERE IS A SERIES OF THREE SHORTWAVES
BETWEEN CHICAGO AND MINNEAPOLIS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST. ALREADY
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR OVER WEST CENTRAL
ALLEGAN COUNTY THEN WEST OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 10000 FT AND WITH
850 MB TEMPS NEAR -8C WHILE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NEAR 11C... THAT WILL BE MORE THAN NEEDED
TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM NOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT WILL THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BE? AS THE
START THE AIR IS WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN... BUT INLAND OF US-31
AFTER SAY 8 PM OR SO IT MAY JUST BE COLD ENOUGH OF SNOW TO REACH
THE GROUND. GIVEN AIR TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING I DO NOT
SEE ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY
SURFACES BUT THE RAP MODEL DOES GIVE NEARLY .30 OF IN OF QPF OVER
SOUTHERN VAN BUREN COUNTY. MOSTLY BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM. THE WET
BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE NEAR 1000 AGL BY THEN SO IT JUST MAY END UP
BEING SNOW. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS. FOR NOW I HAVE TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
ONCE THIS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES EAST SKIES SHOULD FOR THE
MOST PART CLEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BOARDER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BUT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE IS NORTH OF I-96 SO THAT IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE. IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN.
THAT WRAPS IN WARMER AIR FOR SATURDAY SO LAKE EFFECT IS OUT OF
PLAY THUS EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MOST PART AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
COLD IS THE OPERATIVE WORD IN THE EXTENDED WITH A BIG ARCTIC HIGH
BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO
BIG STORMS IN THE OFFING BUT SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO FAR WESTERN
ZONES AS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTHERLY AND MAY EVEN GO OFFSHORE
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WEST WITH THE PATH OF
THE ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EURO STILL INDICATES LESS IN THE WAY OF
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS SFC RIDGING REMAINS STRONG
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WOULD MEAN LESS CLOUDS AND COLDER MIN
TEMPS ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA THAN THE GFS. MIN TEMPS WERE
LOWERED THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 00Z WHEN AREAS OF MVFR COULD DEVELOP
FROM MKG TO AZO IN LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THESE COULD
ALSO REACH GRR TO BTL AND JXN BUT KEPT THOSE SITES VFR FOR NOW AS
CHANCES ARE LOWER THERE. THE WEAK STORM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE A QUICK MOVER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 06Z. WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
I CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT AND ISSUED A
GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. LAKE TEMPS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF LAKE MICHIGAN ARE IN THE LOWER 50S BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING SURFACE AIR ONLY IN THE 40S OVER
THAT LAKE SO THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING
THE 40 TO 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWN CLOSE TO THE
LAKE SURFACE. THUS THE GALE WATCH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST THU NOV 7 2013
EVEN WITH THE .5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL WEDNESDAY THE
RIVERS DID NOT RESPOND MUCH. SO WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK... I SEE NO SIGNIFICANT
ISSUES WITH AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ON THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ844>849.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1110 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS SHORTWAVE
DRIVING SE FROM ERN ND/WRN MN. THIS REINFORCING THE COLD UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. 500 MILLIBAR TEMPS COOLING UPSTREAM
TO -30 TO -32C. MVFR DECK HAS ADVECTED ACROSS SRN WI WITH LIGHT
RETURNS MOVING SEWD FROM NEAR KEAU...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING A GREAT
DEAL TO REACH THE SURFACE. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND SREF CIG PROG
SUGGEST GRADUAL CLEARING TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS WI BY 12Z FRI. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED FRI MRNG AS WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST THU NOV 7 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
A CHILLY DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER 40S MOST
PLACES TODAY. IT APPEARS WE/LL BE CLOUDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND NRN IA IS
EXPANDING AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
THIS IS IN A REGION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHEARED SHORT WAVE. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE HRRR
IS DOING THE BEST JOB ON THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD AT THIS
TIME.
AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION NOTED...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE KICKING
OUT SOME LIGHT QPF AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
GET PRETTY STEEP AND MOISTURE IN THE WEST EXTENDS TO ABOUT
7KFT...IT/S LESS IMPRESSIVE TO THE EAST. IN ADDITION...THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE CIRCULATION DIVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHWEST IL
THIS AFTERNOON.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BRING BACK CLEARING
SKIES BY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
SHIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY...AS DOES THE 500MB RIDGE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY WITH CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES.
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THIS TIME. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET NOSE POINTS INTO OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION...MODELS BRING A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS SOME
VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. THE NAM/CANADIAN TRACKS
NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACKING RIGHT THROUGH THE
AREA.
AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE DRIER NAM FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE SHOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...GUSTY ON SATURDAY. 500MB FLOW IS ZONAL DURING
THIS TIME. GRADUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS...AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT PER AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOLING OFF.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOW MODEST AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. THEY BRING
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD
BRING A DRY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THEY THEN BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT ON THE GFS...AND MONDAY ON THE ECMWF. NO 500MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS MORE QPF THAN THE
ECMWF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
THAT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIGHT SNOW THAN LIGHT RAIN DURING
THIS TIME...GIVEN COOL LOOK OF TEMPERATURE PROFILES. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS FOR MONDAY IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA. 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION DURING THIS TIME.
ECMWF HAS AN AREA OF QPF WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH FAVORABLE DELTA T VALUES AND LOW LEVEL FETCH. THE
ECMWF ALSO SHOWS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW...WILL USE CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
PERIOD...GIVEN SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH FEATURES THIS FAR
OUT. IT CERTAINLY LOOKS QUITE COLD DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH MOVING INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOOKS LIKE WE/LL SEE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THERE IS AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IA THAT IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AND
EXPANDING WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS BEST AND HAS IT ROLLING INTO MADISON BY
ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING AND MILWAUKEE A FEW HOURS LATER. BY THAT
POINT IT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY AN MVFR DECK THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO BEGIN SCOURING OUT
TOWARD LATE EVENING OR EARLY MORNING TONIGHT.
MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WOOD