Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/06/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COLD MORNINGS
WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TODAY WAS STILL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MORE SO TONIGHT. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST...BUT LOCALIZED REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DUST PRONE AREAS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY IN PINAL COUNTY. THAT SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS THROUGH 04/21Z WITH SFC WINDS BELOW 8 KTS.
CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 04/21Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT AGL AND
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PSBL AFT 05/00Z AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. SWLY
SFC WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT
04/19Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 05/03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL KICK UP A 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MORE SO TONIGHT.
THE BREEZE WILL DIE OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR WITH SOME RESIDUAL MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPTS STILL
UP IN THE 30S AND 40S EVEN AS SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES
FALL FROM THE .65 RANGE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT .45 TO .5 AS OF
2 AM. THIS SLOW DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
STARTS TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES YET THIS MORNING...AND BY 21Z SHOWS A
RATHER BRISK FLOW AND LONG FETCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION AS DEEP AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF SHOW A NICE STRONG LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE
ENHANCING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF OUR
AREA...WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. STRONG UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE PVA LOBE MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COUPLET PHASE THROUGH SE AZ BETWEEN 02Z-12Z
WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE KEEPING MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY WELL INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE A COLDER AND MORE EFFICIENT SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING AS LOW AS 7500 TO 8500 FEET AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET. VALLEY STORM TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF .05
TO .35 WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPOTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
TRAILING AND WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO OUR PART OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
3500-4000 FEET AND FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS (PORTIONS OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM COUNTIES) WITH LIMITED BRIEF HARD
FREEZE POTENTIAL IN COLDEST SPOTS.
RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD FOR A RAPID WARMING RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WITH CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN REGION THROUGH MUCH
HIGHER LATITUDES WE SHOULD CAP THAT TREND OFF BY THE WEEKEND. BACK
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND COLD MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR WITH SOME RESIDUAL MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPTS STILL
UP IN THE 30S AND 40S EVEN AS SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES
FALL FROM THE .65 RANGE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT .45 TO .5 AS OF
2 AM. THIS SLOW DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
STARTS TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES BY 16Z...AND BY 21Z SHOWS A RATHER
BRISK FLOW AND LONG FETCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION AS DEEP AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
12Z. NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF SHOW A NICE STRONG LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE
ENHANCING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF OUR
AREA...WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. STRONG UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE PVA LOBE MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COUPLET PHASE THROUGH SE AZ BETWEEN 02Z-12Z
WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE KEEPING MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY WELL INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE A COLDER AND MORE EFFICIENT SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING AS LOW AS 7500 TO 8500 FEET AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET. VALLEY STORM TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF .05
TO .35 WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPOTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
TRAILING AND WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO OUR PART OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
3500-4000 FEET AND FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS (PORTIONS OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM COUNTIES) WITH LIMITED BRIEF HARD
FREEZE POTENTIAL IN COLDEST SPOTS.
RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD FOR A RAPID WARMING RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WITH CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN REGION THROUGH MUCH
HIGHER LATITUDES WE SHOULD CAP THAT TREND OFF BY THE WEEKEND. BACK
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 05/09Z. FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH 04/17Z
WITH SFC WINDS BELOW 8 KTS. CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 04/18Z WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT AGL AND SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PSBL AFT 04/23Z AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. SWLY SFC WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 04/18Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 05/03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL KICK UP A 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THE BREEZE WILL
DIE OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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MEYER/MEADOWS/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
310 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT RAN ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS WINDS
HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE 18Z NAM12 AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS BEGIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS BEGIN AT 00Z AND LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG VORT MAX/BEST LIFT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SAN JUANS NORTHEAST THROUGH
PUEBLO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE BAND
SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST EL PASO AND EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SCATTERED POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW IF 00Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING THROUGH COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THIS WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +1C TO +3C DOWN TO -7C TO -9C
BY TUESDAY EVENING (00Z WED). ANY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE AREA
AFTER THAT TIME WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER MONUMENT HILL IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 AND 12Z EC NOW CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS...
THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE GRADUALLY COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL COMES TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE WETS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT AREAS TUESDAY EVENING IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER
FALLS BEFORE THAT. ALSO...THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS OF LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ALL IS DONE...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST A DUSTING OR LESS. LOOKS DRY FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER. THEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY...MILD AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WINDY AS IT APPEARS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND/OR HIGH FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE DAY APPROACHES. THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT FRIDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
KALS...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELD
UNTIL 02Z TONIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE IN
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AT KALS IS BETWEEN 02-06Z TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AFTER 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.
KCOS...BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 13Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AIR FIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AIR FIELD BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION AT THE COAST
THROUGH WED MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WX PATTERN AS THE
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN
INVERTED TROF NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CREATE A TIGHT PGRAD ACRS
THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS INDICATING SOLID 25KT WINDS
THRU 5KFT WELL INTO THE ATLC AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS. WINDS APPROACHING 30KTS IN AREAS N OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND S OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.
WILL RETOOL THE FCST TO UPGRADE AND EMPHASIZE OVERALL WIND/HIGH SURF
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE TIGHT PGRAD WILL MAINTAIN
STEADY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE AIRMASS WELL
MIXED. SFC FRICTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR
AFT SUNSET...COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE AFT SUNRISE TUE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC...FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE E
AND SHUNTING ANY WIND/WAVE ENERGY DIRECTLY ONSHORE.
MORNING BEACH REPORTS INDICATED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DUNE EROSION
ALONG THE BEACHES N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUT SOME MINOR EROSION S OF
THE INLET. DATA BUOY009 WAS APPROACHING THE 10FT MARK AS OF MID AFTN
WITH NEARSHORE BUOYS APPROACHING 8FT. SEAS LIKELY NEAR 12FT IN THE
GULF STREAM. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED AFTER
THE SUSTAINED NRLY WIND EVENTS LAST MONTH...THE FACT THE GULF STREAM
PASSES MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...AND WITH THE
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR OCCURRING THRU MIDWEEK...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN
COUNTY EFFECTIVE THRU THE TUE MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
MINIMAL NOCTURNAL WIND DIFFERENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
FULL WIND ADVISORY AFT SUNRISE TUE. NOCTURNAL MINIMUMS OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AFT
SUNSET...BUT WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT AFT SUNRISE TUE.
DENSE MARINE STRATOCU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACRS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THRU TUE...BUT THE SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
H90-H70 LYR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT. WILL
SEE ISOLD -SHRAS DVLP IN LCL CONVERGENCE BANDS...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ANY IMPACT MINIMAL. QPF VALUES AOB 0.10"
COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND WELL MIXED AIR WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...5-10F INTERIOR (M/U60S)...AND 10-15F
ALONG THE COAST (L/M70S). THESE SAME WX FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
LIMIT SFC HEATING TUE AFTN...MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S/L80S WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 10F OFF THEIR MORNING MINS ALONG THE COAST...10-15F
INTERIOR.
WED...SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE WINDY ONSHORE
DIMINISHING TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY. LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP STILL LIMITING ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THUS LOW TOPPED SHOWERS COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC
FOR ANOTHER DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THU-SUN... GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT
RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A
RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL CWA
AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI-SUN.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 05/00Z...ALL SITES FRQT E/NE SFC WND G23-29KTS...PREVAILING
CIGS BTWN FL060-070...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD -SHRAS. BTWN
05/00Z-05/15Z...CSTL SITES OCNL E/NE SFC WND G22-25KTS...ALL SITES
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL050-060 WITH BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLD -SHRAS. AFT
05/15Z...E/NE SFC WND G23-28KTS...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD
SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS INTERACTION BTWN
THE EAST COAST HIGH PRES RIDGE AND THE INVERTED TROF JUST E OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL A GENERATE STRONG E/NE BREEZE WITH NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS. AFTN WINDS SUSTAINED 22-27KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT
BUOY008/009...SETTLEMENT POINT AND LAKE WORTH...AND THE NEW SMYRNA
BEACH ARPT. SEAS 8-10FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 12FT OFFSHORE WITH
DOMINANT PDS BTWN 7-9SEC.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 0KT WINDS IMPINGING ON THE E FL COAST N
OF THE CAPE AND S OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AFT COORD WITH WFO MFL...HAVE
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE SCA TO A GALE WARNING BTWN 05/03Z-05/21Z AS
FQNT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED.
WED...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARRIBEAN RELAXES. SEAS SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AS 10 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE
DROP DOWN TO 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS WED NIGHT.
THU-SAT...WINDS VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO VARIABLE AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WED NIGHT/EARLY THU TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OVERNIGHT THU. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS START OVERNIGHT THU
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...IF NOT INTO SUN...AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRI AND HIGHER SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEAS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY FRI NIGHT AND 5
FEET NEARSHORE TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SAT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUE...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WILL ADVECT SUFFICIENT
OCEAN MOISTURE ONSHORE TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW FAR INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE VALUES
DROP BRIEFLY TO 40 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED 20FT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES WHICH WILL
POSE A CONCERN FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A DECREASE IN WINDS WED AND
ESPECIALLY THU WILL REDUCE FIRE CONCERNS SLIGHTLY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 79 68 84 / 20 20 20 10
MCO 69 81 67 86 / 20 20 10 10
MLB 72 80 74 84 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 72 80 73 84 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 66 81 64 85 / 20 20 10 10
SFB 69 81 67 85 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 68 81 66 85 / 20 20 10 10
FPR 72 80 73 85 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
ST. LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60
NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
344 AM CST
OVERALL TRENDS OF MODELS OVER LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS BEEN FOR
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS SLOWING DOWN AND THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
MODELS...WHICH WERE THE MORE PREVALENT...MAINTAINING THEIR
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ETA 04.00Z RUN STILL FASTEST IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH A COUPLE OF GFS-
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS AGREE WITH THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT THE
MAJORITY OR THE MEAN. WITH TIME EVEN THE QUICKER ETA SLOWS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO AGREE WITH THE
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
00Z GFS-ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUITE OF MODELS AND
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO A GOOD FIT WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHILE
RETAINING FINER DETAILS SEEN IN SOME OTHER MODELS THAT THE MEAN
SMOOTHS OUT. THUS...FOR OVERALL TRENDS AM USING 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS.
ALSO USING VARIOUS MODEL 850-700HPA QC FRONTOGENESIS PROGS WHICH
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SUSPECTED TOO QUICK
ETA...AND MODEL QPF FIELDS DISREGARDING THOSE FROM THE 00Z ETA
KEEPS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY
HUNDREDTH OR TWO AMOUNTS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS TO 3/4THS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER AND MID MO VALLEY MID.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS OF THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS TO BE IMPEDED THROUGH
MID-WEEK BY A STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE PROGGED TO PARK ITSELF
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FL...OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND OVER THE BAHAMAS BEFORE
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
GFS-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF VARIOUS QPF 6HR ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FIT THE NOTION OF ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SPREADING GRADUALLY EASTWARD WITH TIME DURING LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND IS SUPPORTED BY 03Z SREF OUTPUT
OF PROBABILITY OF QPF AMOUNTS. MODEL RUN ACCUM PRECIP PROGS
SHOWING GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS FALLING MAINLY FROM LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY THOUGH NCEP WPC 1-3
DAY QPF TOTALS NOT AS GENEROUS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING A
HEAVIER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND FROM EASTERN NE ACROSS IA TO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WI WHERE THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC BAND SETS UP FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FORM
SOUTHERN MO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL TO WEST CENTRAL IN WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC BAND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER FROM LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY PLAY OUT BASED
ON THE FACT THE SREF AND GFS-ENSEMBLE QPF FORECASTS AND
PROBABILITY OF QPF AMOUNTS DONT SHOW THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND
JUMPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...RATHER SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNTIL THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVELS ARE SHOWN
TO BY DRYING BY THEN BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS COOLING
TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN MINIMAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS HAS ALREADY BE UNDERWAY
SINCE EARLIER TONIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LOWER
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROGS STILL SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE DATE.
WITH AT LEAST MODEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
HELD UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PERIOD OF MILDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD TOWN JUST A BIT FROM REACHING
THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY DUE THE EXPECTED PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA. WHILE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER THANKS TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S GULF
SOURCE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA DURING LATE MORNING-MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AN EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN AN EARLIER ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
LIMITING NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED
IN THE NDFD DATA BASE SO WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS ON WEDNESDAY TO
SHOW THIS ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS UPPER TOUGH MOVES OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
MORNING THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMING ZONAL. THIS WILL
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT PENETRATION OF COLD AIR INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND BY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SPREADING FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE IT CROSSES THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CONTINUES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLED FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ACROSS
EASTERN TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE TN AND OH VALLEYS ALONG
WITH THE ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE BLOCKED SO THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
HAVE WHAT EVER PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MANAGES TO BRING EAST OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO WORK
WITH. MODELS DEPICT MODERATELY STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT BUT A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION...AND KEEP ANY OF IT NORTH OF NORTHERN IL FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER FRIDAY AND
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING EAST ALONG/NEAR THE 49TH PARALLEL THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW WILL DRAW MILDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMALS.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG S WINDS ARND 15KT GUSTING TO 20-30KT THROUGH LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
* SSW WINDS 10G15KT THROUGH LATE EVENING.
* CHANCE OF -RA AT ORD TOMORROW AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA. THE THROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND EXPECTING VFR BKN TO OVC
SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BTWN 25 AND 30KT THIS AFTN AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 10G15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO TURN SSW WITH GUSTS
COMPLETELY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE SW U.S. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
LOW VFR TONIGHT AND THEN LOW VFR TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
IS MOST LIKELY AT RFD IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S OR
SSE...ESPECIALLY AT ORD...WTH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT RFD LATE
TOMORROW...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ORD
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP AT ORD
TOMORROW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR IN
RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING WEST. IFR LIKELY IN
RAIN.
THURSDAY...MODERATE NW WINDS. BECOMING VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
SUNDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
US WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTH 2/3 OF THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING INTO THE SOUTH 1/3 OF THE LAKE
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS A FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND INTO HUDSON BAY TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON WHETHER THIS
NEXT LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH OR NORTH PART OF THE LAKE...AS
WELL AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND STRONG
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. A QUIETER PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
ALLSOPP
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Morning surface analysis shows cold front extending from western
Minnesota to the Texas panhandle. Stream of mainly mid/high-level
moisture well ahead of the front has produced a swath of
cloudiness from the western Gulf Coast into the Great Lakes.
Generally high clouds blanket central Illinois: however, clouds
have lowered to between 5000 and 9000ft further west across Iowa
into Missouri, where a few light showers have been occurring from
time to time. HRRR suggests these showers will continue to push
eastward and dissipate across west-central Illinois this
afternoon. 12z KILX upper air sounding was quite dry below 500mb,
so do not believe measurable precip will occur anywhere across the
area today. However based on radar trends and upstream obs, have
added scattered sprinkles across the Illinois River Valley. Main
story today will be the breezy and warm conditions. Southerly
winds gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high
temperatures into the lower 60s. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1146 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
VFR conditions are expected through the entire 18z TAF period.
Mid/high clouds will be prevalent across central Illinois over the
next 24 hours, with lower clouds generally remaining just west of
the area until Tuesday evening. A lead short-wave ahead of a
slowly approaching cold front may potentially bring MVFR ceilings
and a few light showers Tuesday morning: however, confidence for
those conditions is not high enough to include in the forecast at
this time. Have lowered ceilings to around 3500ft and introduced
VCSH as this wave passes between 13z and 18z. Winds will be
strong/gusty from the south this afternoon, with gusts
occasionally reaching 25kt. Gusts will subside tonight, but
sustained southerly winds of 10 to 15kt are expected to continue
overnight into Tuesday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
00Z models continue slower trend of bringing in qpf into central
and southeast IL Tue, especially the NAM model which keeps our CWA
dry until late Tuesday evening & Tue overnight. Did not go that
dry yet but did trend lower with pops on Tuesday. Best chances of
rain appears to be from overnight Tue night through Wed evening
with around 1 inch of rain expected, and perhaps a bit higher over
southeast IL.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1038 mb high pressure over
western Quebec and Lake Ontario while 1000 mb low pressure was
wst of Lake Winnipeg with its cold front extending southward
through eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska and central Kansas.
Shield of high/cirrus clouds 20-25k ft blankets IL and se winds
5-15 mph keeping milder/nearly steady temps in the low to mid 40s.
Aloft an upper level ridge was east of the MS river from MI and
the Ohio River valley into AL/GA, while 532 dm 500 mb low was over
southern Saskatchewan with large upper level trof over the
Rockies. IL was getting into a sw upper level flow early today.
Models show high clouds thinning somewhat during the day so some
sunshine to filter through the cirrus clouds with partly to mostly
cloudy skies expected today. Breezy south winds gusting 20-30 mph
by afternoon to give milder highs of 59-63F. Dry conditions to
prevail tonight with clouds thickening and lowering especially
west of I-57. Lows of 44-48 degrees tonight.
A warm front sets up nw of IL Tuesday with 20-30% chance of light
rain showers west of I-57 Tuesday morning and increasing to 30-50%
Tuesday afternoon, with just slight chance of light rain showers
in eastern IL Tue afternoon while staying dry over the Wabash
River valley in southeast IL. Highs mostly in the lower 60s again
on Tuesday.
A vigorous short wave to dig into the Central Plains Tues night
and eject ne into the western Great Lakes Wed. Deepening surface
low pressure ejecting ne from central plains to drag a cold front
east through IL Wednesday and exiting southeast IL during Wed
evening. This to bring our best chance of rain showers especially
over IL River valley Tuesday night and shifting eastward into
eastern IL on Wednesday. Rain chances then diminish from west to
east during Wed night. Kept just slight chance of thunderstorms
east of I-57 Wed but SPC currently does not carry thunderstorm
chances through Day 3 outlooks over IL. Highs Wed range from mid
50s nw of IL River to lower 60s in southeast IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday night
Dry weather expected to prevail across IL Thursday through Sunday
along with cooler temperatures with frosty lows near or just below
freezing Thursday night. A fairly strong upper level short wave
tracks into the western great lakes region late this week but
still appears to keep its light rain shower chances north of
central IL Friday night and Saturday. Temps that modify a bit late
this week to cool back down on Sunday behind this weather system.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PRIOR FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM ECHOES
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW DROPS FROM THESE ECHOES EARLIER THAN 06Z. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 50 KTS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. EVEN
THEN...THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST THE BEST
LIFT/PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AFTER 060600Z...HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MODEL DATA INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY EVENING. FORCING NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE QUITE
STRONG...GIVEN AN ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WILL GO WITH
HIGH POPS ALL AREAS BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY LOOK GENERALLY POOR ON WEDNESDAY. SO DESPITE
THE GOOD FORCING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING.
LIFTING STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY
EVENING WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY LATER IN THE NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY...HIGHEST IN THE EAST.
REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARM AT THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL
NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FLOW WILL BE ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT QUITE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH TO MENTION ANY RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY. TEMPS
GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND NORMAL. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE DEPICTED THIS
PATTERN VERY WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR FROM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 060300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 920 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
NO UPDATE NEEDED TO TAF.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ARE SET TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH LAF AND HUF NEAR 20Z AND
IND AND BMG NEAR 22Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AT THE
WESTERN SITES AND AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. BY 14Z..ENOUGH
MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO PULL THE WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE TAF
SITES AFTER 12Z...STARTING OFF AT LAF AND HUF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
720 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA A FEW
HOURS EARLIER THAN PRIOR FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR UPSTREAM ECHOES
OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND HRRR OUTPUT SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW DROPS FROM THESE ECHOES EARLIER THAN 06Z. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
DON/T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AROUND 50 KTS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. EVEN
THEN...THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SUGGEST THE BEST
LIFT/PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL STAY OFF TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS AFTER 060600Z...HIGHEST IN
THE NORTHWEST.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK
REASONABLE...SO ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MODEL DATA INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES BY EVENING. FORCING NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD BE QUITE
STRONG...GIVEN AN ASSOCIATED 50-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET. WILL GO WITH
HIGH POPS ALL AREAS BY THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY LOOK GENERALLY POOR ON WEDNESDAY. SO DESPITE
THE GOOD FORCING...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIGHTNING.
LIFTING STILL LOOKS PRETTY GOOD OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY
EVENING WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY LATER IN THE NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP SOME POPS GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON THURSDAY...HIGHEST IN THE EAST.
REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS MOS HIGHS
MAY BE A LITTLE WARM AT THAT TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WILL
NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THICKNESSES.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD FLOW WILL BE ZONAL WITH
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING NORTH OF THE AREA...NOT QUITE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH TO MENTION ANY RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE SATURDAY AND THEN BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY. TEMPS
GENERALLY EXPECTED AROUND NORMAL. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE DEPICTED THIS
PATTERN VERY WELL SO DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR FROM FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 060000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 624 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE AFTER 14Z
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ARE SET TO OCCUR AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH LAF AND HUF NEAR 20Z AND
IND AND BMG NEAR 22Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 06Z AT THE
WESTERN SITES AND AFTER 09Z ACROSS THE EASTERN SITES. BY 14Z..ENOUGH
MIXING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO PULL THE WIND SHEAR WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...SHOULD SEE SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE TAF
SITES AFTER 12Z...STARTING OFF AT LAF AND HUF.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...MK
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
323 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
EVENTUAL DRIZZLE FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...AS
THE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH A CHILLY RADIATED-
OUT AIRMASS. ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AS STRONG 850-600MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...THINKING WIDESPREAD ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATING
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
CENTRAL KS LATE TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM`S DEPICTION OF A
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH HOLDS TRUE. EITHER WAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNNY YET COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MIXING
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR 50 DEGREES.
ADK
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (SUNDAY)...STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...AS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE EXITING EASTERN KS AS OF 1730Z. THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A KMHK-KICT-KAWK AND WAS STILL ADVANCING
EAST. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. THE RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE CAPTURED
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT MUCH BETTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
FROM THE 12Z CYCLE THIS MORNING. USED THIS AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
MEANS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z WITH CIGS MOSTLY AROUND 7
HUNDRED FEET. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 4 MILES WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING
THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 53 58 37 50 / 70 80 80 10
HUTCHINSON 48 58 35 50 / 70 80 70 10
NEWTON 50 57 36 49 / 70 80 80 10
ELDORADO 53 57 38 49 / 70 80 90 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 59 40 51 / 70 90 90 20
RUSSELL 42 58 31 49 / 60 90 60 0
GREAT BEND 43 59 32 50 / 70 90 60 0
SALINA 46 59 34 50 / 70 90 70 0
MCPHERSON 47 58 35 49 / 70 80 70 10
COFFEYVILLE 55 60 45 52 / 70 90 100 30
CHANUTE 54 59 42 51 / 70 90 100 30
IOLA 54 59 41 51 / 70 90 100 30
PARSONS-KPPF 55 60 44 52 / 70 90 100 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation sections...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
A longwave trough encompassed much of western/central North America
with large scale ridging across eastern North America and across the
far northeast Pacific (west and south of British Columbia). There
was a significant polar jet streak rounding the western ridge and
diving southeast across the west coast of Washington-Oregon-Northern
California. There were a couple of shortwave perturbations that
were lifting northeast through the northern Great Plains into the
eastern Canadian Prairies. Tied to these features, there was a
fairly significant 700mb cold front moving south through Nebraska
into northwestern Kansas. This baroclinic zone was quasi-stationary
as it extended southwest through southern Colorado west to southern
Nevada. Temperatures were cold over a large area at 700mb with -12
to -15C common across the northern High Plains into the northern
Rockies. There were two cold fronts that could be identified at
850mb. The first one pushed through southwestern Kansas early this
morning where 850mb temperatures were falling into the lower single
digits. The second northern front was pushing through South Dakota
early this morning with 850mb temperatures behind this front as cold
as -9C at Glasgow, MT. Low level moisture was on the increase with
850mb dewpoint temperatures around +10C across the lower Rio Grande
Valley (Del Rio, TX with a south wind).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
The main focus continues to be on the day 2 and 3 synoptic trough
that will create impacts for Kansas. The models including the GFS,
ECMWF and WRF 40 KM all generally agree on the timing of strong
warm air and including dew points, theta-e advection from surface
to above the 850 mb level early Tuesday morning. The model data
show broad isentropic lift across areas west of Dodge City to the
Colorado line, around 12 UTC with MUCAPES on the order of 500-900
Joules/kg. The area of instability and lift will shift eastward
during the day as the trough axis and deeper cold air move into
eastern Colorado. As a result, the precipitation probabilities
were increased to around 80 percent with the isentropic lift/warm
air advection timeframe. Precipitation type will likely be rain,
rain showers or a rain snow mix as well after the initial frontal
boundary moves through southwest Kansas. The best chances for any
snow will be across west central Kansas, say from Hays to Dighton
and Syracuse, where thermal profiles are most supportive before
frontogenetic response lifting become essentially zero. Widespread
temperatures falling into the mid 20`s are likely Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning west of a Hays to Cimarron to Hugoton
line.
The remainder of the forecast period will bring a day or so of
upper ridging around Thursday before another westerly fast moving
intense upper shortwave crashes into the Central or Northern Plains
Friday. Cool and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will change to
sunny and warmer in the 50`s and maybe 60`s by Friday before the
next wave contributes to slightly cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Aviation weather conditions will deteriorate overnight tonight as
low level moisture pushes north-northwest into the southwest Kansas
region. This will result in development of MVFR stratus after 07Z or
so late tonight...with IFR stratus expected a few hours after that.
Eventually, close to daybreak Tuesday, the ceiling will likely fall
to LIFR category with rain overspreading the region. Light rain is
expected to be off and on during much of the morning Tuesday as an
approaching upper level disturbance increased the atmospheric lift
across the western Kansas region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 60 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 30 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 20 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 40 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 70 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 60 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1137 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF FEATURES WITHIN THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ONE WEAK IMPULSE IS LIFTING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS TRACKING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LAST BUT
NOT LEAST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND DOWN INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
TODAY THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. ONE MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES IN THE 300-305K LAYER. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SHOT AT A
FEW STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE. ALSO
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY DRIZZLE TUE AS THE BULK
OF OF THE SATURATION REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
BY TUE MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
ROCKIES WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR TUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVELS STILL
EXTREMELY SATURATED...STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND
WILL QUICKLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING
ONLY FAR SE KS WILL STILL BE SEEING SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS. NOT
OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO LACK OF
CLOUD ICE ONCE THE LOW LEVEL FINALLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TRACKING A FAST MOVING IMPULSE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NW AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MILD TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THESE EXTENDED PERIODS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE EXITING EASTERN KS AS OF 1730Z. THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A KMHK-KICT-KAWK AND WAS STILL ADVANCING
EAST. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. THE RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE CAPTURED
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT MUCH BETTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
FROM THE 12Z CYCLE THIS MORNING. USED THIS AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST MEANS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z WITH CIGS MOSTLY AROUND 7 HUNDRED
FEET. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 4 MILES WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THIS
TIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 62 53 60 37 / 10 60 90 70
HUTCHINSON 62 50 59 35 / 10 60 80 70
NEWTON 61 51 59 35 / 10 60 90 70
ELDORADO 62 52 60 38 / 10 60 90 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 64 53 60 38 / 10 60 90 70
RUSSELL 61 44 54 29 / 10 70 90 30
GREAT BEND 60 45 56 31 / 10 70 80 50
SALINA 63 47 58 34 / 10 70 90 60
MCPHERSON 61 49 58 34 / 10 60 80 70
COFFEYVILLE 66 51 60 48 / 10 50 90 90
CHANUTE 64 53 59 45 / 10 50 90 90
IOLA 65 53 59 44 / 10 50 90 80
PARSONS-KPPF 65 52 59 47 / 10 50 90 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
The main focus continues to be on the day 2 and 3 synoptic trough
that will create impacts for Kansas. The models including the GFS,
ECMWF and WRF 40 KM all generally agree on the timing of strong
warm air and including dew points, theta-e advection from surface
to above the 850 mb level early Tuesday morning. The model data
show broad isentropic lift across areas west of Dodge City to the
Colorado line, around 12 UTC with MUCAPES on the order of 500-900
Joules/kg. The area of instability and lift will shift eastward
during the day as the trough axis and deeper cold air move into
eastern Colorado. As a result, the precipitation probabilities
were increased to around 80 percent with the isentropic lift/warm
air advection timeframe. Precipitation type will likely be rain,
rain showers or a rain snow mix as well after the initial frontal
boundary moves through southwest Kansas. The best chances for any
snow will be across west central Kansas, say from Hays to Dighton
and Syracuse, where thermal profiles are most supportive before
frontogenetic response lifting become essentially zero. Widespread
temperatures falling into the mid 20`s are likely Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning west of a Hays to Cimarron to Hugoton
line.
The remainder of the forecast period will bring a day or so of
upper ridging around Thursday before another westerly fast moving
intense upper shortwave crashes into the Central or Northern Plains
Friday. Cool and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will change to
sunny and warmer in the 50`s and maybe 60`s by Friday before the
next wave contributes to slightly cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AT 15G20KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, A MID LEVEL DECK AROUND BKN080 WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST, AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS EAST, AND UPSLOPE AFFECT
WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, AND RAIN WILL FORM TOWARD 08
TO 10Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN, AND WILL
LIKELY DETERIORATE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 90 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 80 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 90 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 90 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 60 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...LONG TERM UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
The main focus continues to be on the day 2 and 3 synoptic trough
that will create impacts for Kansas. The models including the GFS,
ECMWF and WRF 40 KM all generally agree on the timing of strong
warm air and including dew points, theta-e advection from surface
to above the 850 mb level early Tuesday morning. The model data
show broad isentropic lift across areas west of Dodge City to the
Colorado line, around 12 UTC with MUCAPES on the order of 500-900
Joules/kg. The area of instability and lift will shift eastward
during the day as the trough axis and deeper cold air move into
eastern Colorado. As a result, the precipitation probabilities
were increased to around 80 percent with the isentropic lift/warm
air advection timeframe. Precipitation type will likely be rain,
rain showers or a rain snow mix as well after the initial frontal
boundary moves through southwest Kansas. The best chances for any
snow will be across west central Kansas, say from Hays to Dighton
and Syracuse, where thermal profiles are most supportive before
frontogenetic response lifting become essentially zero. Widespread
temperatures falling into the mid 20`s are likely Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning west of a Hays to Cimarron to Hugoton
line.
The remainder of the forecast period will bring a day or so of
upper ridging around Thursday before another westerly fast moving
intense upper shortwave crashes into the Central or Northern Plains
Friday. Cool and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will change to
sunny and warmer in the 50`s and maybe 60`s by Friday before the
next wave contributes to slightly cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
For the most part, VFR and breezy conditions should be expected.
Winds will south at 20g28kt prior to a cold front plowing through. a
cold front will move southeastward through the terminal areas
tonight, shifting winds to the north around 10 to 12z. Toward 12z
on Tuesday, some light rain and cigs in the bkn to ovc 040 range
will develop as cold air and moisture advects in.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 90 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 80 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 90 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 90 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 60 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
THURSDAY PRECEDES ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. THE GFS
IS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN IT WAS FOR THE 00Z
RUN YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS DEPICTING ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THINK THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
JUSTIFY PLACING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING BECOMES THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD BE QUITE CONSISTENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT SO HAVE
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHER THAN THAT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CIGS AROUND 2500FT
FROM 08Z-15Z OR SO. THIS IS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM 00Z GUIDANCE
SO FOR NOW KEPT CIGS VFR BUT HINTED AT MVFR POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SFC HIGH MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM NORTHWEST
TO EAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO CIRRUS LEVEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CIGS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT
REMAIN VFR AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...Updated for the short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
A large upper level open wave trough is anticipated to move into the
western CONUS Monday then into the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday.
This system will then eject northeastward into the
remainder of the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. As this
system approaches, mid levels of the atmosphere will become
saturated allowing for cloudy skies to envelop western Kansas by
Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms will become possible after
midnight, mainly across central Kansas as well as northern Kansas
where the best lift will be observed. An area of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across northeastern New Mexico Monday night
then shift eastward across the Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday. An
associated frontal boundary will be positioned across western Kansas
during the afternoon and this is where rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. The low and frontal boundary shift
eastward Tuesday night with the chance of wrap around showers
continuing across western Kansas. Temperatures will fall rapidly
behind this front and some places could see snow or a mix of rain
and snow after midnight. Strong northerly winds will also be felt
behind this front making it feel cooler than it actually is. The
system then moves out of the area by sunrise Wednesday with
decreasing cloudiness from west to east. As for temperatures, lows
Tuesday morning are forecasted to range from the upper 30s across
west central Kansas to lower 50s across south central Kansas where
increased dewpoints will be found. In fact, temperatures could start
rising after midnight across south central Kansas due to the
increased moisture. A wide range of temperatures are expected
Tuesday afternoon due to the position of the aforementioned front
with highs ranging from the mid 40s across west central Kansas to
around 60 degrees across portions of the KS/OK border and south
central Kansas. Lows behind this front Wednesday morning are
anticipated to range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas
to upper 30s across south Central Kansas. Highs Wednesday afternoon
should reach to around 50 degrees.
Tranquil weather is then expected Wednesday night through Saturday
with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. This is due to a weak
upper level ridge positioned south of the CWA. Models are suggesting
an upper level shortwave to move through the Northern Plains Friday
into Saturday but the atmosphere above the Central High plains
should be dry enough that only a slight increase in clouds and a
wind shift could be observed. Highs Thursday through Saturday will
generally range from the mid 50s to mid 60s with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
For the most part, VFR and breezy conditions should be expected.
Winds will south at 20g28kt prior to a cold front plowing through. a
cold front will move southeastward through the terminal areas
tonight, shifting winds to the north around 10 to 12z. Toward 12z
on Tuesday, some light rain and cigs in the bkn to ovc 040 range
will develop as cold air and moisture advects in.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 90 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 80 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 90 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 90 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 60 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show a stream of
embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the main wave
positioned across the western conus. The southwesterly flow has
allowed ample mid level moisture from the western coast to trail
northeast across the central plains, resulting in a mid level deck
of scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. This cloud
cover however has not hindered the strong southerly winds
continuing to gust to around 45 mph near the Concordia and Abilene
areas, lessening between 30 and 40 mph gusts near the Manhattan
and Topeka areas. Will continue with the current wind advisory
through 6 PM when winds weaken below criteria.
The surface trough responsible for the tight pressure gradient
should shift slightly eastward into western Kansas this evening as
a progressive upper shortwave trough lifts northeast through the
northern plains. This should keep the gusty winds in place
overnight, weakening slightly between 15 and 20 mph sustained with
gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with cloud cover in the area, lows in
the upper 40s will be common. In terms of precipitation, very weak
echos develop per the 4 km ARW and 3 km HRRR for late this evening
into the overnight hours. The NAM also hints at weak isentropic
lift on the 310 and 315K surfaces as an area of weak mid level
vorticity is noted across eastern areas of Kansas. The limiting
factors are the lack of strong mid level forcing and dry air at
the low levels with cloud bases near 10 KFT. Kept slight chances
for any developing shower just in case it is able to overcome the
drier air and reach the surface.
Another warm Monday afternoon is in store as the weak cold front
tracks southeast, weakening winds to around 10 mph along and
behind the boundary. Surface high pressure builds in bringing weak
cold advection into the area. Have trended highs toward 60 degrees
for north central areas, warming to the lower and middle 60s for
east central Kansas as southerly winds around 15 mph are
maintained through mid afternoon when the boundary arrives.
Conditions remain dry through the afternoon as a strong shortwave
trough deepens out west, bringing increasing rain chances by
Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning the pattern sets up
for a rainy early/mid week. By 12z Tuesday, the inverted surface
trof has set up along the central and northern portions of the cwa
while tropical moisture is swept northward over the central
plains. Rain showers expected to lift into the southern counties
in the evening and spread into Nebraska by sunrise. Not much
instability to work with throughout this entire system
progression, and will only carry isolated thunder as a result.
Of interest is PW values which come in at 1 to near 1.5 inches by
12z Tuesday which is about 180% of normal for this time of year.
Without a specific boundary or focusing mechanism in the cwa on
Tuesday would anticipate the moisture and ascent to bring a broad
area of moderate rain throughout the day, before the cold front
associated with the upper trof sweeps through in the overnight
hours. May see some pockets of heavier rain as the front moves
through, but have gone with generally 1-1.5 inches across the area
from evening Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
EC has come in not quite as cold at 850mb as the trof passes and
also not as far south. Cold temps already lagged behind the
moisture and will therefore keep mention of any snow mixed in with
the rain out of the forecast. Will have to see how the cold pool
moves across the northern counties on Wednesday morning into
afternoon as it could be cold/unstable enough to generate a few
flakes. Also will expect falling temperatures on Wednesday
afternoon as colder air comes in. Highs in the 50s on a rainy
Tuesday afternoon will become a dry breezy 40s for Wednesday.
Fortunately temperatures warm up slowly through the end of the
week as zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and the lee
trof/southerly surface winds return on Friday. GFS and EC differ
with the strength of the shortwave that slides across the northern
plains later Friday into Saturday, but with northern track have
kept the warmer drier trend at this time with highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Winds will continue to be the main concern through 15Z Monday as
south winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25kt will prevail ahead of
an approaching low pressure and cold front. The front is expected
to move through MHK by 17Z and TOP and FOE around 19Z. Winds will
shift to the west then north through 23Z and decrease to less than
10 kts. Sprinkles or light showers may move near TOP and FOE
through 10Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS
SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER
VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND
H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE
LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR
SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO
DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS
FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS
ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CIGS AROUND 2500FT
FROM 08Z-15Z OR SO. THIS IS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM 00Z GUIDANCE
SO FOR NOW KEPT CIGS VFR BUT HINTED AT MVFR POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SFC HIGH MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM NORTHWEST
TO EAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO CIRRUS LEVEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CIGS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT
REMAIN VFR AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...QUIET DAY OVERALL BUT THERE WAS AN INTERESTING LITTLE
FEATURE OVER THE CWA TODAY. IF YOU NOTICED IT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH SHORES OR HAPPENED TO SEE IT ON SATELLITE THERE WAS THE
IMMEDIATE/SHARP CLEARING LINE IN THE CLOUDS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE
AROUND 4500-5K FT HIGH AND THE CLEARING LINE MOVED FROM WEST TO
EAST. OVERALL IT WAS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT WAS CAUSING THIS BUT
LOOKING AT THE RUC13 THE 295K LEVEL THERE WAS A NOTICEABLE RISE IN
THETA SFC EAST OF 55. MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER IT AND THUS LOW
CLOUDS STAYED IN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. WEST OF 55 THE
THETA SFC WERE FALLING AND FALLING QUICKLY SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MIXING AND THUS CLEARING SKIES.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
WED AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
AIRMASS IS STILL RECOVERING WITH 12Z PWS STILL NEAR 0.50" AND
MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN PLACE UNTIL WED
AFTN. AN ALREADY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY A TAD
MORE OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE THE ERN GULF
AND FL/EXTREME SERN CONUS WHILE THE H5 JET CORE STILL UP STREAM OF
THE L/W TROUGH APPROACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CAUSE THE
TROUGH TO DIG ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HRS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT AND THEN AS THE TROUGH STOPS DIGGING TOMORROW
THE SFC LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND LIFT ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ARKLATEX TUE NIGHT AND INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH OUR
REGION UNTIL WED NIGHT NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE TROUGH AND SFC LOW
BOTH QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE NE.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY IN PLACE LATE WED ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS RAIN
CHANCE WILL INCREASE BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY
HOLD OFF TILL THE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS. AS FOR STRONG/SVR CHANCES
THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN ADDITION THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND EVEN MID LVL WINDS WILL
NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE (MAYBE 40-45KTS AT BEST). RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED/THU
MORNING. ONCE THIS OCCURS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO
THE REGION.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND COOL
ONCE AGAIN AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY FRI. ZONAL FLOW WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SFC. BOTH LL TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND RECOVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN DRY. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EAST COAST AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS IS LEADING TO
A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NOW THE SOUNDS AS WELL. THE ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES TEMPORARILY. FOR THE
TIDAL LAKES...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR POSSIBLY UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES
FOR TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
EASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. 95/CAB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A
THINK LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST ALL DAY AN
NOW IS BEGINNING TO THIN. EXPECT THIS DECK TO NOT BE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT FALL OFF QUITE
SO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON
TUESDAY. /MEFFER/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 75 56 78 / 10 10 10 40
BTR 59 77 61 82 / 10 10 10 40
ASD 56 75 60 79 / 20 10 10 30
MSY 62 76 65 80 / 20 20 10 30
GPT 57 74 62 77 / 10 10 10 20
PQL 53 75 58 78 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG/MARINE: CAB
AVIATION: MEFFER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG ~1038 SFC HIGH (+2 STD DEV) WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...USHERING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE (-1 TO -1.5
STD DEV). ALOFT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN CONUS
AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PLUME
OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR STREAMING FROM NEAR
THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA (REMNANTS OF SONIA) INTO THE OH VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...NE FLOW (BREEZY NEAR THE
COAST...DIMINISHING TONIGHT) WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/STRATO-CU OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE...SPREADING WWD THRU
TONIGHT. NO ACTIVITY VISIBLE ON RADAR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP OVER THE SE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO SPREAD WWD THAN ANTICIPATED...SO OPTED TO LOWERS TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO INLAND TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. SPEED MAX WILL EMERGE ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY...EJECTING THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EWD INTO
THE PLAINS LATE TUES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE ERN CONUS TUES AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) ANCHORS OFF THE SE COAST. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF THE NE COAST TUES-WEDS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THRU WED.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE WED AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE COASTAL TROUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. RAIN MAY
END UP BEING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
SRN STREAM INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUES-WEDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE WEDS AS THE SFC/H85 HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HANDLING
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. TROUGH WILL
EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NE THURS...PUSHING THE BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIP NOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA (MAINLY E OF INTERSTATE 95) IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THURS AS THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY DISSIPATES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW AND THETA-E
ADVECTION (MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY) MAKE THIS SCENE RIO SEEM
REASONABLE. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS
AND RAISE POPS ALONG THE COAST. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
(STILL REMAINING CHANCE POPS). FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURS.
WHILE CAA WILL WANE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (MID 50S N TO MID 60S S) DUE TO LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WARMER WED AND THURS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NEURALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MILD WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TO MORE ZONAL FROM THE MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS IS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
BY ALL THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. WILL LOOK
FOR NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE ANOTHER TROF
GO BY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SOME CLEAR
NIGHTS AND CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE
NIGHTTIME LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AROUND RIC AND
AREA OF MVFR (BKN020-BKN025) HAS PUSHED IN ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STRONG NLY FLOW. AS THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION EXPECT THE MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FROM PHF TO ORF AND ECG INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK NEAR THE COAST BUT THESE IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE (REACHING RIC BEFORE 12Z
TUE) DUE TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PUSH INTO SBY AND PERSIST TROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEXT
CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS WILL BE THU/THU NGT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CDFNTL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT INTO THE EVENING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS. LOOKING AT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE THE HRRR LOCAL WRF AND HIRES ARW ALL SHOWS
WINDS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE BRING WINDS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND WITH LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE LONG OCEAN
FETCH GENERATING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THIS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. PROBABLY SEAS WILL DROP UNDER 5 FEET
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THEN
THE NAM BUT LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE NAM
FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE WATER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND
SAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...ALB/JAO
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A COUPLED JET (RIGHT REAR
OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES). A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LIKELY LEADING
TO A SHARP CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OVER THE EAST AND SNOW OVER THE
WEST. TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
FURTHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LIMITED COLD AIR TO PULL SOUTH
AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARMER WATER TEMPS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE REGIONS. THUS...THINKING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IS
COMPLICATED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO HAVE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS A
SITUATION OF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH NEAR SURFACE WARM OR
ISOTHERMAL LAYER...HAVE FOLLOWED 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0
VALUES TO DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR WARMING WILL LIKELY RUN FROM SKANDIA TO IRON
MOUNTAIN.
AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...EXPECT 0.40-1.0 INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH A
FGEN BAND FROM ROUGHLY WATERSMEET TO BARAGA COUNTY. IN THAT
SAME REALM...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS ARE SHIFTING THE QPF
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED FORCING
LOCATIONS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIFT TO BE JUST BELOW THE DGZ WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED QPF
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN SNOW AREAS WOULD EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES AND THAT SITS RIGHT IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME TIME (DUE TO THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING DURING
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -7 TO -9C RANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO DELTA-T VALUES
ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE
7-8KFT RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FORECASTS FOR
THE SNOW BELTS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...SHOWED
DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THEM LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATION OVER THE EAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED OFF SNOW ALOFT FALLING
THROUGH A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...LEANED ON 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR P-TYPE WHICH INDICATES A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. A
LOT OF VARIABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH HOW COLD THE AIR
WILL BE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH MORE THAN
LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A TROUGH INTO MN HAS SUPPORTED MVFR CIGS AT CMX/SAW.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD HAS KEPT CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE.
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT VSBY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH
GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. VEERING WINDS TO WSW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE UPPER MI WILL HELP PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-249>251-
264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH TOO MANY
UNKNOWNS...WILL KEEP FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE
BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z
WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM AT IWD...THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW
SNOW. WENT WITH A MORE BROAD 1-4IN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE DGZ IS WAY UP
BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB...WITH SNOW RATIOS MAXING OUT NEAR 10:1. WHILE
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER
MI...WARMER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED EAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EITHER WAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK
WET...WITH A CWA AVERAGE INCH OF WATER. THIS IS EVEN A BIT LOWER
THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE W THIRD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL EXIT E
OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS NEARING -9C/ SLIDING
OVER THE W. ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY E.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI TURING WINDS TO A MORE W DIRECTION. WILL NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DRY WX SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR MOST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A TROUGH INTO MN HAS SUPPORTED MVFR CIGS AT CMX/SAW.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD HAS KEPT CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE.
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT VSBY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH
GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. VEERING WINDS TO WSW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE UPPER MI WILL HELP PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-249>251-
264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH TOO MANY
UNKNOWNS...WILL KEEP FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE
BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z
WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM AT IWD...THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW
SNOW. WENT WITH A MORE BROAD 1-4IN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE DGZ IS WAY UP
BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB...WITH SNOW RATIOS MAXING OUT NEAR 10:1. WHILE
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER
MI...WARMER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED EAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EITHER WAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK
WET...WITH A CWA AVERAGE INCH OF WATER. THIS IS EVEN A BIT LOWER
THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE W THIRD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL EXIT E
OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS NEARING -9C/ SLIDING
OVER THE W. ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY E.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI TURING WINDS TO A MORE W DIRECTION. WILL NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DRY WX SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR MOST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MOIST UPSLOPE SSE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT BOTH KSAW AND
KCMX INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING AS -SHRA MOVE IN FM THE SW. SHRA WILL SPREAD FM THE WRN TAF
SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO KSAW TOWARD EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WSW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVNING AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
531 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH TOO MANY
UNKNOWNS...WILL KEEP FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE
BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z
WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM AT IWD...THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW
SNOW. WENT WITH A MORE BROAD 1-4IN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE DGZ IS WAY UP
BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB...WITH SNOW RATIOS MAXING OUT NEAR 10:1. WHILE
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER
MI...WARMER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED EAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EITHER WAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK
WET...WITH A CWA AVERAGE INCH OF WATER. THIS IS EVEN A BIT LOWER
THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE W THIRD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL EXIT E
OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS NEARING -9C/ SLIDING
OVER THE W. ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY E.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI TURING WINDS TO A MORE W DIRECTION. WILL NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DRY WX SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR MOST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING WITH ALL SITES
SEEING INCREASING WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL MENTION LLWS AT KCMX
BUT OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS AT SFC FOR BOTH KIWD AND KSAW SHOULD
PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ONCE MIXING
COMMENCES ON MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE SITES TO QUICKLY BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN TAF SITES BY MON AFTERNOON AS CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
FOR A TIME. SHRA ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT KSAW SO WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
THERE TOWARD MON EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KSAW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LAYER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP FROM
GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM...THE
GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW SNOW.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING WITH ALL SITES
SEEING INCREASING WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL MENTION LLWS AT KCMX
BUT OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS AT SFC FOR BOTH KIWD AND KSAW SHOULD
PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ONCE MIXING
COMMENCES ON MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE SITES TO QUICKLY BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN TAF SITES BY MON AFTERNOON AS CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
FOR A TIME. SHRA ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT KSAW SO WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
THERE TOWARD MON EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KSAW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LAYER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THAT STRETCHES FROM A 1010 MB SFC LOW OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT SHEBOYGAN IN WISCONSIN. SPLAYED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA IS 1025 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WE HAVE SEEN SOME VERY DRY AIR BUILD IN AT THE SFC WITH
THE HIGH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY IMAGE AT 21Z SHOWS THE
IMPACT OF THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH A NICE DONUT HOLE AROUND THE
MPX RADAR. HOWEVER...REFLECTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RDA IS LOWER
THAN IT IS EAST AND NORTHEAST...SO YOU CAN GET THE SENSE OF HOW THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY MOISTENING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITES.
REGIONAL RADAR RIGHT NOW SHOWS TWO ENHANCED AREAS OF REFLECTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST MODELS SHOW THIS CURRENT TREND OF TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF QPF CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. ONE AREA
CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A BLOB OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT 21Z ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ITS
ASSOCIATED THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE. THE SECOND IS A BAND OF RADAR
RETURNS THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NORTH PLATTE IN CENTRAL
NEB...NORTHEAST THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND CONTINUES ON COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY NORTHEAST TO REDWOOD FALLS/BUFFALO/CAMBRIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY OVER TO THE SPOONER WI AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ENHANCED FGEN ALONG WITH SOME CSI CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THESE TWO PIECES OF FORCING IN SEVERAL OF THE
HI-RES MODELS. FOR INSTANCE...THE 05.18 HRRR SHOWS QPF OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES ACROSS SE MN WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE...A LULL IN TOTAL
QPF FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH HASTINGS WHERE ONLY A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF IS INDICATED...WITH THE CSI BAND SHOWING UP FROM REDWOOD FALLS
THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AND UP TOWARD RICE LAKE WHERE RUN TOTAL QPF IS
UP MORE IN THE 0.5 INCH RANGE THANKS TO THE ENHANCED FGEN/CSI
FORCING. FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...IT IS WHERE THIS FGEN
BAND SETS UP THAT WILL RESULT IN THE 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT
ARE EXPECTED.
COUPLE OF THINGS THAT MAKE THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST DIFFICULT ARE
NARROW NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FGEN BAND /NOT MUCH MORE THAN 50 MILES
WIDE/ ALONG WITH HOW QUICKLY DO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COOL TO
ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING MANY PLACES IN
THE TWIN CITIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S...IT IS THOSE DEW POINTS AND
THE ATTENDANT WET BULB TEMPERATURES THAT YOU REALLY NEED TO PAY
ATTENTION TO. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...SFC WEB BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH MEANS AS THE PRECIP EVAPORATES WE WILL
QUICKLY SEE TEMPS FALL OFF TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...WITH A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WEST OF A BLUE EARTH/WASECA/LADYSMITH
LINE SHORTLY AFTER RAIN BEGINS. EAST OF THIS LINE...DEWPS ARE STILL
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS RAPID CHANGEOVER WAS
LITCHFIELD...WHICH FIRST REPORTED RAIN AT 230 PM AND WAS ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW 20 MINUTES LATER.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS FOR WHERE THE 3-5 INCH BAND SETS UP
WAS NOT ALL THAT LARGE...RANGING ON THE 05.12 RUNS FROM BEING
CENTERED ALONG THE HENNEPIN/DAKOTA COUNTY LINE WITH THE NAM AND MORE
ALONG THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE WITH THE GFS/GEM.
HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/ECMWF BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. THE
ONE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WARNING
TYPE SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES/ IS SW MN...WHERE THE SNOW IS
ALREADY FLYING AND THE RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE FGEN BAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LONGEST.
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...THOUGH WOULD SAY THAT
MOST OF MN COULD BE ENDED AROUND 9Z...WITH WI ENDING AT 12Z...ABOUT
3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
FOR AS MUCH FUN AS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON. DID FAVOR THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW TOWARD A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...WHICH RESULTED IN THE COOLEST TEMPS /WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S/ ALONG WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDES
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS LESS SO AND
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPER
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR NOW. STILL
PROVIDES JUST A CHANCE OF MIXED TYPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EVENT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING ON OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT
WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CWA. THE ECWMF IS FASTER WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT DRAWING IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON THIS COLD
AIR INTRUSION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. STILL TIME TO DECIPHER MODEL TRENDS
WITH THIS OVERALL DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM KRWF-MGG-KJMR LINES UP WELL
WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS THIS EVENING. THE BAND IS
DRIFTING EAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. KSTC IS ON THE NORTH EDGE WITH MVFR
CIGS AND LESS THAN MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING WITH KAXN
REMAINING DRY. KRWF WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE SOME WITH THE VSBY THIS
EVENING AS THE SNOW BAND IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE HEADING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...CEILINGS UNDER 500 FEET ARE LIKELY THROUGH
THE EVENING. THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERTAKE KRNH
AND KMSP BY 02Z AND PERSIST TO BETWEEN 05Z AND 06Z. CEILINGS WILL
DROP QUICKLY TO 500 FEET WITH VSBYS 1/2SM TO 3/4SM. ALTHOUGH RAIN
IS FALLING AT KEAU ATTM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH ON WHEN THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL TAKE PLACE. BASED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AT
04Z FROM THE LATEST NAM WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THE QUICK ONSET
AND CHANGEOVER THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A MUCH BETTER DAY
AVIATION-WISE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
KMSP...BAND OF MODERATE SNOW ARRIVING BY 02Z AND LASTING TO 05Z.
1/2SM TO 3/4SM VSBYS WITH CIGS QUICKLY DROPPING TO 500 FEET. SNOW
DIMINISHES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR BY 08Z AND
VFR BY DAYBREAK. A FINE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE MPX CWA SHORTLY...TAKING THE WAA
RAINFALL THAT DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH. UPPER WAVE THAT IS
DRIVING ALL OF THIS WAS MOVING INTO WC MN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BE HEADING FOR NE MN THIS EVENING...SO BATCH OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT
RAIN WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA AFTER MOVING OUT OF
WRN MN.
SKIES ALREADY CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE LIGHT...WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL OFF INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL GIVE US A GOOD COOL BASE TO START
FROM FOR THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING
LATER ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TRAVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING STRONG
ADIABATIC OMEGA BEING GENERATED INTO SOUTHERN MN AFTER
21Z...LIFTING TO THE METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z.WED. EXPECT RAIN TO
DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO EAST
CENTRAL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS A
RAIN/SNOW COMBO BUT WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFTER
00Z...AS STRONG LIFT ZONE FROM NEAR REDWOOD FALLS...TO THE TWIN
CITIES MOVES IN. APPEARS TO BE A GOOD 4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
VALUES AFFECTING THE REGION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS DURING THE EVENT.
STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH DECENT VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER SHOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE METRO. EXPECTING ABOUT A
70 MILE WIDE BAND OF 3-6 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE RESOLVED THE WATCH WITH A SNOW ADVISORY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST...ENDING BY 12Z WED IN MN AND
LINGERING UNTIL 15Z WED FOR WISCONSIN.
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TRAILS THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN COOL AND DRY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO SPREAD EAST IN MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE IT EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT COOLER AND DEVELOPS SNOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW AFFECTING AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA. A LARGE HIGH FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A COOL AND DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO AT 18Z. WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF LGT-MOD RA
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MN. PRECIP BACK ACROSS WRN MN
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH IS HEADING FOR NE MN
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB IN HANDLING PRECIP
SO FAR TODAY...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY IN TAFS. USED THE HRRR/RAP TO
TIME CIG IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN TURNING RATHER QUICKLY OVER TO THE WNW...SO VEERED WINDS A
BIT MORE THAN WHAT GFSLAMP HAS. THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRB...WITH NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP HEADING
FOR THE MPX AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO
THE RWF AREA VERY CLOSE TO 18Z...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A
PRECIP START TIME OF 21Z FOR MSP. HAVE A MIX FOR MSP RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS TAF PERIOD COULD VERY EASILY CLOSE OUT WITH HEAVY
SNOW FALLING...LOTS OF TIME TO REFINE THAT TIMING THOUGH.
KMSP...CIGS FOR A TIME MAY BE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN TAF FOR THE
FIRST HOUR...BUT CONDS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
20Z. MAJORITY OF PERIOD WILL HAVE FEW ISSUES UNTIL THE VERY
END...AS PRECIP RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE FIELD FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW...HAVE A RASN MIX...BUT THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SN BEING THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE...SO MAY HAVE MOD SNOW ALREADY BY 00Z TUE
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NGT...IFR AND LOWER WITH SN/+SN THRU 8Z. 3-5 IN POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -RA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL ROTATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FEED
OF 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED FROM SOUTHEAST MN
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z AS A DECENT POCKET OF 700MB OMEGA PASSES. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS....ENDING BY 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS
WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
SOUTHERN MN AND AREAS OF WC WI WILL GET SNOWFALL TUESDAY
AFTN...THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEMS ARE WHETHER
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS TO THE SE
OF MN...LIMITING SNOWFALL AMTS ONCE THE CHG OVER DEVELOPS...OR
WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE TOO WARM WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS ARE
LOCATED...AND AGAIN DECREASING THE SNOWFALL AMTS.
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 1 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CRITICAL ALONG
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE 92/85H WINDS WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER
AIR FROM NORTHERN MN TUE/TUE EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE HOLDING
ONTO A SCENARIO OF BOTH THE HIGHER RH VALUES AND TEMPS BETWEEN
92-85H ARND -2 TO -4C ALONG A KRWF TO KMSP TO KRCX LINE DURING THE
CRITICAL TIME FRAME OF ENHANCED OMEGA/S. ONLY PROBLEM WITH
SNOWFALL AMTS WOULD BE THE TIME FRAME WHERE BOTH THE MAX OMEGA IN
THE CRITICAL -12 TO -18C DENDRITIC ZONE IS BETWEEN 18Z TUE TO 03Z
WED. USUALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN DURING THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT DURING THE AFTN TIME PERIOD /TEMPS NEAR THE SFC
ABV FREEZING/ LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE
KEEPING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS LOWER THAN EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE
EVENT ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY WAY TO SUPPLEMENT
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS WOULD BE TO LOWER TEMPS TO BLW FREEZING IN
THE AFTN...START THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY...KEEPING
TEMPS LOWER THAN FORECASTED...OR HAVE AN ADDITION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. THE ONLY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
FOR THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN THE FORM OF
UPRIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR CSI
/SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/. EC DOES NOT HAVE ANY TYPE OF
CSI OR ANY CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THIS SYSTEM...AND THE LATEST GFS
HAS LITTLE AND MAINLY TO THE SE OF OUR CWA. THEREFORE...THIS
SCENARIO CAN BE TAKEN OUT FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THE BEST
SCENARIO WOULD BE AN AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM KRWF TO KMSP TO
KRCX WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES NEAR KRWF WHERE SOME ENHANCED HIGHER
QPF AMTS ARE LOCATED TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY
INFLUENCE HIGHER QPF AMTS...AND ADD TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL WOULD BE
THE INTERACTION OF HIGHER PWATS FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COULD TRANSPORT
HIGHER PWATS INTO THE SYSTEM TUESDAY. TOO MANY DETAILS TO SORT
OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
BY WED AFTN...THE MAIN 50H TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST...CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL LEAVING TO SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SHRTWV/S AND PRECIPITATION CHC/S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT QUICKLY CHG OVER TO RAIN FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MUCH WARMER
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE WSW AND A PACIFIC TYPE AIR MASS TAKES
OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO AT 18Z. WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF LGT-MOD RA
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MN. PRECIP BACK ACROSS WRN MN
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH IS HEADING FOR NE MN
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB IN HANDLING PRECIP
SO FAR TODAY...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY IN TAFS. USED THE HRRR/RAP TO
TIME CIG IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN TURNING RATHER QUICKLY OVER TO THE WNW...SO VEERED WINDS A
BIT MORE THAN WHAT GFSLAMP HAS. THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRB...WITH NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP HEADING
FOR THE MPX AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO
THE RWF AREA VERY CLOSE TO 18Z...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A
PRECIP START TIME OF 21Z FOR MSP. HAVE A MIX FOR MSP RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS TAF PERIOD COULD VERY EASILY CLOSE OUT WITH HEAVY
SNOW FALLING...LOTS OF TIME TO REFINE THAT TIMING THOUGH.
KMSP...CIGS FOR A TIME MAY BE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN TAF FOR THE
FIRST HOUR...BUT CONDS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
20Z. MAJORITY OF PERIOD WILL HAVE FEW ISSUES UNTIL THE VERY
END...AS PRECIP RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE FIELD FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW...HAVE A RASN MIX...BUT THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SN BEING THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE...SO MAY HAVE MOD SNOW ALREADY BY 00Z TUE
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NGT...IFR AND LOWER WITH SN/+SN THRU 8Z. 3-5 IN POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -RA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ045-051>053-058>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-
091-092.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
953 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 940 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Tonight`s rain event is unfolding about as expected. Have made
tweaks to bring categorical pops further north and east more
quickly, but the general forecast is about the same. Should see
the rain overspread the rest of the area through the 06-08Z as
moderate to strong isentropic lift continues on the nose of the
low level jet. Am monitoring the line of thunderstorms now in
southeast Kansas to possibly bring thunder to the southern 1/2 of
the CWFA. RAP forecasts up to 100 J/kg MUCAPE moving in ahead of
the front so I can`t rule it out. However, lightning strikes are
relatively few and far between right now and am thinking that
ongoing rain will be enough to dampen any instability. Will leave
mention of thunder out for now and continue to monitor.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Main shield of rain from this morning has lifted north as
forecast, with only small batches of light rain and sprinkles
streaming northeast within the warm sector. Low pressure currently
located in north central Kansas will continue to advance northeast
along the stalled front into Iowa and Wisconsin tonight. Trailing
cold front will sweep east across Missouri and Illinois late
tonight and Wednesday with a period of rain and falling
temperatures expected.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Pattern flattens out in the wake of this system with a dry and
seasonal forecast remaining in tact despite a frontal passage on
Saturday. Precipitation chances may eventually increase next week
if better moisture can return ahead of a front poised to move
across the Midwest on Monday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Deep low level moisture advecting N in advance of the storm system
and cold front will mean widespread MVFR/IFR cigs overnight, along
with MVFR/occasional IFR vsbys in occasional rain. Leadings edge
of the lower cigs is currently near an KUNO-KHAE line, and expect
a further deterioration of cigs in this area as we head into the
evening with IFR dominating for much of the night. However, low
level condensation pressure deficits indicate that the IFR
development in STL area may hold off until after midnight. Several
waves of rain are anticipated, and have used a combo of latest
radar trends and HRRR output for timing of precip. Thunder isn`t
out of the question, but at this time it looks like it would be
very isolated so have left out of TAF forecasts attm. Lowest
conditions...IFR with cigs aob 400 ft and vsbys aob 2sm...should
occur with fropa on Wednesday morning. However, there should be a
fairly rapid improvement several hours after fropa as rain winds
down and as drier air surges east, with MVFR cigs returning about
3 hours after the passage of front.
Specifics for KSTL: Deteriorating conditions are forecast over the
TAF area this evening, and while MVFR cigs and a bit of light rain
is expected to dominate it now appears that a drop to IFR cigs and
persistent rainfall will hold off until after 05z. However, IFR
cigs and MVFR/occasional IFR vsbys in rain are expected to
dominate during the predawn hours and into Wednesday morning, with
the lowest conditions tied to fropa around 15z. Expect a
rapid improvement several hours after fropa, with rain ending and MVFR
cigs returning by around 18z.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
614 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Main shield of rain from this morning has lifted north as
forecast, with only small batches of light rain and sprinkles
streaming northeast within the warm sector. Low pressure currently
located in north central Kansas will continue to advance northeast
along the stalled front into Iowa and Wisconsin tonight. Trailing
cold front will sweep east across Missouri and Illinois late
tonight and Wednesday with a period of rain and falling
temperatures expected.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Pattern flattens out in the wake of this system with a dry and
seasonal forecast remaining in tact despite a frontal passage on
Saturday. Precipitation chances may eventually increase next week
if better moisture can return ahead of a front poised to move
across the Midwest on Monday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 610 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Deep low level moisture advecting N in advance of the storm system
and cold front will mean widespread MVFR/IFR cigs overnight, along
with MVFR/occasional IFR vsbys in occasional rain. Leadings edge
of the lower cigs is currently near an KUNO-KHAE line, and expect
a further deterioration of cigs in this area as we head into the
evening with IFR dominating for much of the night. However, low
level condensation pressure deficits indicate that the IFR
development in STL area may hold off until after midnight. Several
waves of rain are anticipated, and have used a combo of latest
radar trends and HRRR output for timing of precip. Thunder isn`t
out of the question, but at this time it looks like it would be
very isolated so have left out of TAF forecasts attm. Lowest
conditions...IFR with cigs aob 400 ft and vsbys aob 2sm...should
occur with fropa on Wednesday morning. However, there should be a
fairly rapid improvement several hours after fropa as rain winds
down and as drier air surges east, with MVFR cigs returning about
3 hours after the passage of front.
Specifics for KSTL: Deteriorating conditions are forecast over the
TAF area this evening, and while MVFR cigs and a bit of light rain
is expected to dominate it now appears that a drop to IFR cigs and
persistent rainfall will hold off until after 05z. However, IFR
cigs and MVFR/occasional IFR vsbys in rain are expected to
dominate during the predawn hours and into Wednesday morning, with
the lowest conditions tied to fropa around 15z. Expect a
rapid improvement several hours after fropa, with rain ending and MVFR
cigs returning by around 18z.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
900 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
WITH SNOW PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW THERE LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS DEFORMATION ZONE
ROTATES IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS
AREA TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST. ALSO...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
DERGAN
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY 08Z...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS BELOW FL010 WILL REMAIN. VSBYS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 2 AND 5SM...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MAIN
RAIN/SNOW AREAS. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
KOMA AND KLNK AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR AT THOSE SITES AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. IFR
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOMETIME AFTER 20Z.
DERGAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST PER
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOME LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE PUSHED PAST 1 INCH...AS IT PRODUCED DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH TAPPED DECENT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS/WAS DESPITE ANEMIC UPPER HGT FALLS...20-40M AT
H5. SHORT TERM QPF FROM 4KM WRF/RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO LIFT
PRECIP ENE WITH IT EXITING SWRN ZONES NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF DWINDLING PRECIP
PROBABLY LINGERING OVER NERN NEBR ALL NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
TRACE FLURRIES YET IN THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT STLT/RADAR
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE
ALONE FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON SERN
EDGE OF ADVISORY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH APPROACHING NIGHTFALL...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE EASILY TO COME BY BUT MOST
ADDITIONAL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...OR LESS...AFT 00Z. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY MAKE IT TO OMAHA/LINCOLN BUT IT APPEARS COLDER
AIR SUPPORTING THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE CITIES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM IS MAINLY TEMPERATURE
DRIVEN AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. DID BUMP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON WED WHERE GROUND
WILL BE ABSENT ANY SNOW AS WIND DIRECTION...NW SHIFTING TO WSW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. BUT IF CLOUDS FAIL TO CLEAR...WHICH
WAS NOT EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE A DWINDLING IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NORTH...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN PREV FORECAST
AND LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CHANGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY E...AS RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET UP TOO LATE TO
KEEP MANY TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 20S THAT GUIDANCE
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAVE LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH GREAT VARIATION SEEN BTWN THE ECM/GFS/CMC. THUS MAKING TEMP
FCST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
AS OF NOW...LATEST ECM PROGS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM
ZONAL TO DEVELOPING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS...ONE OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUS FAVORING A COLD
PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER BASICALLY
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE THE CMC DIGS AN UPPER
TROF THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. COMPARISON
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS BTWN THE 05/00Z ECMMOS AND 05/12Z MEX CLEARLY
SHOWING THE DISTINCTION. HIGHS PROGGED NEXT TUES AT KOMA...ECM MOS
36/MEX 49. GIVEN THAT THE ECM HAS PROVEN TO OUT PERFORM ON A REGULAR
BASIS...FEEL COMPELLED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION.
AS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES...WILL AGAIN OPT TO GO WITH THE
DRIER ECM.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
813 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS OF 02Z...RADAR RETURNS FROM KUEX INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP DATA SUGGEST THE 700MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR CWA AT THIS HOUR...AND QUICKLY DEPARTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. RADAR DATA FROM KLNX DOES INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE RESULT OF SUBTLE
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 06Z. THAT
BEING SAID...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WHICH WAS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST...WAS
CANCELLED.
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE OTHERWISE...WITH ONLY
A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...SKY...WIND...AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW
IN OUR W/NW BY MID/LATE MORNING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF AN INCH WHILE OTHER REPORTS OF OVER ONE INCH
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH AND MADE THE SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE GOTHENBURG AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO
ARCADIA/ORD/GREELEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAP HAS BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING/SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WELL AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NEB. THE MID LEVEL H7 CIRCULATION TENDS TO INTERMITTENTLY CLOSE
AS IT LIFTS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND/PSEUDO
DEFORMATION REMAINING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THIS BEING
SAID...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD.
AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH...THE LINGERING RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GENOA TO HASTINGS TO
FRANKLIN FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NW/W CWA...WHERE CURRENTLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SNOW
BAND SETS UP THIS EVENING. THE LAST SNOW REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE
ORD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAD A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF JUST OVER
ONE INCH. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE
PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ENDED PCPN BY 06Z...BUT OUR FAR
NORTH MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION
NEXT TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE VERY FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRIDAY AND WITH WINDS ALOFT OF OVER 40 KTS
EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH
SOUTH WINDS THE GFS BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS EAST WINDS AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE WENT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS TIME AND HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 13Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 800FT AGL...PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF 2330Z AND THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA...MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION...AND WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CEILING AT GRI SHOULD INCREASE IN HEIGHT AND
ACTUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CEILING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...TO AROUND 2SM...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...BUT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND ACTUALLY BECOME FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SHOULD
INFILTRATE THE AREA...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
745 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS/FORECAST TO DECREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A
BIT QUICKER THAT PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON RADAR AND SHORT RANGE
MODEL TRENDS. DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY WORK BACK
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS INTENSITY WANES WITH TIME.
DERGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY 08Z...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS BELOW FL010 WILL REMAIN. VSBYS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 2 AND 5SM...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MAIN
RAIN/SNOW AREAS. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
KOMA AND KLNK AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR AT THOSE SITES AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. IFR
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOMETIME AFTER 20Z.
DERGAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST PER
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOME LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE PUSHED PAST 1 INCH...AS IT PRODUCED DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH TAPPED DECENT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS/WAS DESPITE ANEMIC UPPER HGT FALLS...20-40M AT
H5. SHORT TERM QPF FROM 4KM WRF/RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO LIFT
PRECIP ENE WITH IT EXITING SWRN ZONES NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF DWINDLING PRECIP
PROBABLY LINGERING OVER NERN NEBR ALL NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
TRACE FLURRIES YET IN THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT STLT/RADAR
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE
ALONE FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON SERN
EDGE OF ADVISORY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH APPROACHING NIGHTFALL...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE EASILY TO COME BY BUT MOST
ADDITIONAL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...OR LESS...AFT 00Z. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY MAKE IT TO OMAHA/LINCOLN BUT IT APPEARS COLDER
AIR SUPPORTING THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE CITIES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM IS MAINLY TEMPERATURE
DRIVEN AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. DID BUMP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON WED WHERE GROUND
WILL BE ABSENT ANY SNOW AS WIND DIRECTION...NW SHIFTING TO WSW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. BUT IF CLOUDS FAIL TO CLEAR...WHICH
WAS NOT EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE A DWINDLING IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NORTH...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN PREV FORECAST
AND LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CHANGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT
.ESPECIALLY E...AS RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET UP TOO LATE TO
KEEP MANY TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 20S THAT GUIDANCE
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAVE LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH GREAT VARIATION SEEN BTWN THE ECM/GFS/CMC. THUS MAKING TEMP
FCST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
AS OF NOW...LATEST ECM PROGS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM
ZONAL TO DEVELOPING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS...ONE OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUS FAVORING A COLD
PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER BASICALLY
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE THE CMC DIGS AN UPPER
TROF THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. COMPARISON
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS BTWN THE 05/00Z ECMMOS AND 05/12Z MEX CLEARLY
SHOWING THE DISTINCTION. HIGHS PROGGED NEXT TUES AT KOMA...ECM MOS
36/MEX 49. GIVEN THAT THE ECM HAS PROVEN TO OUT PERFORM ON A REGULAR
BASIS...FEEL COMPELLED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION.
AS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES...WILL AGAIN OPT TO GO WITH THE
DRIER ECM.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030-031.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
551 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW
IN OUR W/NW BY MID/LATE MORNING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF AN INCH WHILE OTHER REPORTS OF OVER ONE INCH
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH AND MADE THE SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE GOTHENBURG AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO
ARCADIA/ORD/GREELEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAP HAS BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING/SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WELL AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NEB. THE MID LEVEL H7 CIRCULATION TENDS TO INTERMITTENTLY CLOSE
AS IT LIFTS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND/PSEUDO
DEFORMATION REMAINING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THIS BEING
SAID...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD.
AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH...THE LINGERING RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GENOA TO HASTINGS TO
FRANKLIN FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NW/W CWA...WHERE CURRENTLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SNOW
BAND SETS UP THIS EVENING. THE LAST SNOW REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE
ORD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAD A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF JUST OVER
ONE INCH. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE
PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ENDED PCPN BY 06Z...BUT OUR FAR
NORTH MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION
NEXT TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE VERY FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRIDAY AND WITH WINDS ALOFT OF OVER 40 KTS
EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH
SOUTH WINDS THE GFS BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS EAST WINDS AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE WENT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS TIME AND HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY 13Z WEDNESDAY.
LOW CLOUDS...WITH A CEILING NEAR 800FT AGL...PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF 2330Z AND THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AS THE STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY
IMPACTING THE AREA...MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION...AND WITH INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING POST-SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CEILING AT GRI SHOULD INCREASE IN HEIGHT AND
ACTUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW
CEILING...VISIBILITY RESTRICTION...TO AROUND 2SM...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN FOG AND/OR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...BUT DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND ACTUALLY BECOME FAIRLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND SHOULD
INFILTRATE THE AREA...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039-
040-046-060.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
BY 08Z...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS BELOW FL010 WILL REMAIN. VSBYS WILL BE
VARIABLE BETWEEN 2 AND 5SM...WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MAIN
RAIN/SNOW AREAS. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
KOMA AND KLNK AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
COULD OCCUR AT THOSE SITES AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN. IFR
CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOMETIME AFTER 20Z.
DERGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST PER
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOME LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE PUSHED PAST 1 INCH...AS IT PRODUCED DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH TAPPED DECENT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS/WAS DESPITE ANEMIC UPPER HGT FALLS...20-40M AT
H5. SHORT TERM QPF FROM 4KM WRF/RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO LIFT
PRECIP ENE WITH IT EXITING SWRN ZONES NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF DWINDLING PRECIP
PROBABLY LINGERING OVER NERN NEBR ALL NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
TRACE FLURRIES YET IN THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT STLT/RADAR
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE
ALONE FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON SERN
EDGE OF ADVISORY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH APPROACHING NIGHTFALL...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE EASILY TO COME BY BUT MOST
ADDITIONAL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...OR LESS...AFT 00Z. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY MAKE IT TO OMAHA/LINCOLN BUT IT APPEARS COLDER
AIR SUPPORTING THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE CITIES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM IS MAINLY TEMPERATURE
DRIVEN AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. DID BUMP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON WED WHERE GROUND
WILL BE ABSENT ANY SNOW AS WIND DIRECTION...NW SHIFTING TO WSW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. BUT IF CLOUDS FAIL TO CLEAR...WHICH
WAS NOT EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE A DWINDLING IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NORTH...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN PREV FORECAST
AND LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CHANGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT
..ESPECIALLY E...AS RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET UP TOO LATE TO
KEEP MANY TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 20S THAT GUIDANCE
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAVE LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH GREAT VARIATION SEEN BTWN THE ECM/GFS/CMC. THUS MAKING TEMP
FCST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
AS OF NOW...LATEST ECM PROGS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM
ZONAL TO DEVELOPING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS...ONE OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUS FAVORING A COLD
PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER BASICALLY
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE THE CMC DIGS AN UPPER
TROF THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. COMPARISON
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS BTWN THE 05/00Z ECMMOS AND 05/12Z MEX CLEARLY
SHOWING THE DISTINCTION. HIGHS PROGGED NEXT TUES AT KOMA...ECM MOS
36/MEX 49. GIVEN THAT THE ECM HAS PROVEN TO OUT PERFORM ON A REGULAR
BASIS...FEEL COMPELLED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION.
AS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES...WILL AGAIN OPT TO GO WITH THE
DRIER ECM.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030-031.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
506 PM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR FRONT IS QUICKLY SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS ARE LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SNOW...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE NM WILL THROUGH APPROX 03Z. ELSEWHERE...A FEW NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 01-02Z. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE...OTHERWISE...
CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEHIND
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MST TUE NOV 5 2013...
IMPRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER ROUGHLY
THE PAST 18 HOURS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM HOWEVER THESE WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS A POTENT DRY SLOT SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE AREA. A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND TEMPS ARE PLUMMETING ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LATEST HRRR AND RUC
GUIDANCE WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OR A SMALL
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES BETWEEN RED RIVER
AND RATON PASS...AND FROM NEAR DES MOINES/CAPULIN EAST TO CLAYTON FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE FOCUSED CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER COLORADO AND EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY AIR INVADES THE STATE. 20Z OBS ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND AROUND
SW COLORADO ALREADY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS. CLEAR SKIES ON
TAP WILL LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 10F WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUN MAKING IT FEEL
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE EVEN STRONGER
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS WITHIN THE ABQ METRO ON THE ORDER OF 20+
DEGREES BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
A FAST MOVING DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS COLORADO AND
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD TO
MODIFYING TEMPS WITH READINGS NOW 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. NEUTRAL TO
VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
BY WARM ADVECTION AS THE FLOWS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK VERY NICE AS TEMPS MODIFYING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
A FEW TO 11 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
FARTHER EAST...READINGS SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 11 DEGREES DUE TO THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE BETTER VENTILATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
A WEAK LEE TROUGH. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW TO 9 DEGREES...EXCEPT FROM
ALBUQUERQUE TO GALLUP...FARMINGTON AND CHAMA WHERE A BROAD AREA OF
POOR VENTILATION SHOULD PERSIST AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
CAUSING WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 20-35 KTS WHILE
A SHARP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT VENTILATION AREAWIDE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE BREEZIEST IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 9 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. POOR VENTILATION MAY ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN A BIT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN AFTER SATURDAYS BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THE PLAINS.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1119 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST...AND HAVE ALMOST EXITED THE CWA. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
WELL PORTRAYED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR KPIR/KATY
AS A SYSTEM MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO MAKE IT INTO KPIR
TERMINAL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND GUSTY...BUT WILL SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1016 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST...AND HAVE ALMOST EXITED THE CWA. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
WELL PORTRAYED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AMOUNTS OR REDUCE CIGS OR VSBYS BELOW VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AMOUNTS OR REDUCE CIGS OR VSBYS BELOW VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WORK UP OVER THE
REGION AND WITH IT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS ALREADY A
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UP INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IF A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP OVER-TOP OF THE
KPIR OR KATY TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. FOR NOW...CONTINUING
WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN AT KPIR AND KATY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
331 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STATE OF THE FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PANHANDLES REMAIN LOCKED
IN DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FRONT. THIS WILL BE A
BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 3 HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHILE LEAVING PERCENTAGES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS CLOSER THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN. INCREASED POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THE RECENT TREND OF HIGHER POPS FURTHER
WEST AS SHOWN IN THE HRRR RUC.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS POPS AND STRUCTURE
BUT SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE TREND THIS SEASON OF
NOCTURNAL COLD FRONTS MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS MUCH
SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER THE INITIAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE TIME FRAME FOR A THE NEXT WIDESPREAD KILLING
FREEZE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT OR 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
TRANSITIONING CIGS DOWN TO INTO MVFR/IFR BY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING WITH OFF/ON
MOSTLY -RA/-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY RIPPLE THROUGH
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TS SONIA YESTERDAY WILL ADD TO
SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR THE OFF/ON -RA/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO WARM WITH MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. FEEL THE
CHANCES FOR TS/VCTS WILL BE NEAR NIL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
VFR CIGS WITH SPOTTY IFR WILL START THE FORECAST...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO SATURATE AND COOL. THE CONTINUOUS RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN IFR CIGS AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH
PERIODIC BREAKS INTO LOW MVFR MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME. VFR
VSBYS WILL FALL INTO MVFR AS THE -RA/-SHRA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. THE BEST WAA AND LIFT SHIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL LIFT CIGS BACK UP INTO LOW MVFR CATEGORY...
THOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IFR MAY MAINTAIN IF THE BOUNDARY
CANNOT WARM AFTER SUNRISE OR IF THE RAIN LINGERS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO THE
EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST 7-9 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR VCTS/TS/TSRA TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OVER THE
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO THE AREA. FROPA ARRIVES INTO
THE DFW METRO BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS. FROPA AT WACO EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND/OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AREA SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND WILL LEAVE THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE FORECAST WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE. OVERNIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT
ANTICIPATED. THE BEGINNING OF THAT LIFT IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND
IS LEADING TO SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS
ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER. LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS SHOULD END
QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT FOR NORTH
TEXAS WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THROUGH
THE EVENT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THAT SAW
FLOODING FROM THE LAST RAIN EVENT MAY RESPOND QUICKLY AND COULD GO
BACK INTO FLOOD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON THE WEEKEND
AND ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S DUE TO THE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN
RURAL AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 58 72 63 67 / 60 70 70 80 60
WACO, TX 66 62 74 64 67 / 60 60 50 80 60
PARIS, TX 63 54 68 62 66 / 60 70 70 80 70
DENTON, TX 66 58 72 62 65 / 60 70 70 80 40
MCKINNEY, TX 64 58 71 62 66 / 60 70 70 80 60
DALLAS, TX 65 59 72 63 66 / 60 70 70 80 60
TERRELL, TX 64 58 73 64 68 / 60 70 60 80 70
CORSICANA, TX 65 59 73 64 68 / 60 60 50 80 70
TEMPLE, TX 64 60 74 64 67 / 60 60 40 70 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 57 72 57 64 / 60 70 70 70 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
542 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
320 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
ATTENTION SQUARELY ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH COOLER AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...COULD SEE A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW...
AND MAYBE EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS...
WITH A WARM FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WI. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OK/KS.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN REACHING FROM
IA AND NORTHERN IL UP INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHERN WI. FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SD... THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MORE
LAMINAR LOOK...SUGGESTING SNOW. INDEED...LOOKING AT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OUT THAT WAY...SNOW WAS INDEED FLYING.
LATEST MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE OVER NW MO
AROUND 00Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN WI ALREADY BY 12Z.
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200% OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS A SLAM
DUNK OBVIOUSLY...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM HEADING
OVER SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MAINLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THIS IS NOT TRUE
IS THE FAR NORTHWEST EDGE...FROM ALBERT LEA/KASSON MN...UP THROUGH
WABASHA...TO NEAR ABBOTSFORD/MEDFORD WI. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. STILL APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES WILL LIE JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOME SPOTS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY AREAS AND
OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES. THE MAIN UPWARD MOTION AND FORCING SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ALLOWS THE FRONT
TO MOVE BACK SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO
INVADE. BUT LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS COLD AIR ARRIVES
JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD AND SUPPLY OF ICE FOR SEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS MOVES AWAY. IF THE ICE CAN LINGER LONGER...WE MAY SEE A
BIT MORE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT EVEN IF WE DO...IT
LIKELY WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. AND IF THE ICE INDEED DOES
DEPART...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
COULD SOME OF THIS MANIFEST AS FREEZING DRIZZLE? CERTAINLY IT
COULD...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN
WEST OF ROCHESTER. FURTHER EAST...THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND
BECOME LIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO DRIZZLE AS WELL.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EJECTS QUICKLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO
THAT BY MID-DAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED. SKIES WILL THEN
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES BY SUNSET. DESPITE THE CLEARING AND RESULTING SUNSHINE...
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR WILL OFFSET THE WARMING EFFECTS OF THE
SUN...SO NOT MUCH WARMING IS ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
320 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH COULD BRING MORE CLOUDINESS OVER WI THURSDAY...WITH THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ZIPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CONUS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND TODAY NO DIFFERENT. AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...OUR
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH NO FORCING ALONG IT...DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A
CANADIAN TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 05.12Z ECMWF
HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS. DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL
BE MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR LOOKS TO INVADE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY SENDING
TEMPERATURES ON A DOWNWARD TREND. WAS CONSERVATIVE ON THIS COOLING
TREND AT THIS POINT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
LARGE AREA OF RAIN COVERING BOTH TAF SITES THIS EVENING WITH A
VARIETY OF REPORTABLE CONDITIONS. THE VISIBILITY IN THE RAIN
GENERALLY RANGES FROM 2 TO 4 MILES WHILE CEILINGS VARY FROM LESS
THAN FIVE HUNDRED FEET UP TO VFR. LOOKING AT CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...PRIMARILY IFR AND EITHER STARTED BOTH TAFS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS OR MOVED THEM TO IFR WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS
THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS MOVES
PAST THE AREA AND SWINGS THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE FORCING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO BECOME LIGHTER WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE VISIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY CHANGE IN THE
CEILING TO OCCUR AS THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN SATURATED.
ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
KEEP SOME DRIZZLE GOING. THE CONCERN AT KRST BECOMES WHETHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AS LIQUID OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOT A LOT OF COLD
AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA INTO
CANADA AND CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN TIME FOR
A SWITCH TO FZDZ IS NOT HIGH. BUT WITH BOTH THE 05.21Z RAP AND
05.18Z NAM SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY...THOUGHT IT WAS BEST TO AT
LEAST SHOW THIS FOR A SHORT PERIOD. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES NORTHERN MAINE FROM QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE TEMPERATURES AS THEY
HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WARMING IN THE UPPER
LEVELS ESPECIALLY IN THE 800-700MB LAYER AS SEEN ON THE 00Z UA.
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL BACK SOME ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING
AREAS BY 12Z AS SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SEEN ON THE IR SATL IMAGERY.
CONCERN IS THERE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP WHICH COULD BE IN THE FORM
OF SLEET OR -FZRA AS SEEN ON THE GFS SOUNDINGS W/A MOIST LAYER
FROM 850-700MBS. ATTM, THE RUC WAS DOING THE BEST OUT OF THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING A GRADUAL WARMUP BY 7-8AM WHICH
WOULD ALLEVIATE ANY FREEZING PRECIP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE, THEN
DECREASING CLOUDS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, AND FINALLY
INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE
OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE. EXPECT MOST OF THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TDY`S 12Z MODELS WERE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET...
DURATION AND EXIT OF SHWRS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APCHS THE
FA LATE WED NGT AND CROSSES BETWEEN MIDDAY AND LATE AFTN THU.
TYPICAL...THE OPNL 12Z GFS IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HRS FASTER THAN OTHER
MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF...SO WE BLENDED THESE TMG DIFFERENCES
RESULTING IN ERLY EVE EXIT POPS FOR OUR FA...WITH MEASURABLE
PRECIP WRAPPING UP SIG BEFORE SFC TEMPS FALL TO AND BLO FZG
LATE THU NGT AFT REACHING HI TEMPS OF 50S THU DYTM. TOTAL
EVENT QPF FOR THIS EVENT BY MODEL CONSENSUS IS BETWEEN 2 AND
4 TENTHS OF AN INCH...ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL POPS WITHE
CORE OF THIS EVENT...CAPPED TO 90 PERCENT TO REFLECT ANY REMAINING
TMG UNCERTAINTY ATTM.
AFT A BRIEF BREAK IN CLD CVR LATE THU NGT AND ERLY FRI MORN...AN
UPPER LVL TROF FROM QB WILL BRING CLDNS PARTICULARLY FOR NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA...ALG WITH SCT AFTN/EVE SN SHWRS. BETWEEN THE LLVL
COLD ADVCN WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WNW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND CLD CVR...HI TEMPS FRI WILL BE AT LEAST 15 DEG COLDER THAN
THU.
.LONG TERM /LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW CLRG IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT MORN WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS. NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ANYWHERE OVR THE FA FRI NGT...WITH HI TEMPS SAT RECOVERING
PERHAPS A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN FRI DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
GREATER SUNSHINE.
AFT FAIR CONDITIONS SAT EVE...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SAT
NGT AND ERLY SUN MORN AHEAD OF A FAST ZONAL CLIPPER S/WV FROM S
CNTRL CAN. EITHER SN SHWRS OR A PD OF LGT SN WILL THEN COMMENCE
MID TO LATE SUN MORN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO RN OVR CNTRL AND
SPCLY DOWNEAST AREAS SUN AFTN AS WEAK LLVL WARM ADVCN BRINGS A
SHALLOW LLVL BL OF MARINE AIR NWRD FROM THE GULF OF ME. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NOT MUCH MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
TOTAL LIQUID EQUIV WITH THIS SYSTEM ATTM...SO EVEN IF THIS EVENT
WERE ALL SN FOR NRN LOCATIONS...NOT MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNFL
WOULD RESULT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SLICK ROADWAYS LATE SUN MORN
IF THIS EVENT TMG HOLDS. AFT ANY REMAINING PRECIP ENDS ERLY SUN
EVE...MDT LLVL COLD ADVCN WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE SUN NGT THRU TUE...PERHAPS COLDER THAN WHAT WE
INDICATE THAN THIS UPDATE...WHICH WE WILL REFINE BASED ON FUTURE
MODEL CONSISTENCY ON THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE SOME 4000 FOOT CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL
DOWNEAST, BUT EXPECT THESE TO RISE TONIGHT. ALSO, SITES FROM KPQI
NORTH MAY SEE SOME CEILINGS IN THE 4000 TO 6000 FOOT RANGE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER FROM LOW VFR WED EVE
TO IFR BY THU MORN AS A PRE-COLD FRONTAL BAND OF SHWRS ENTERS THE
REGION FROM QB. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IFR THRU THU...IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND TO MVFR NRN TAF SITES THU NGT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MVFR BKN-OVC SC WILL CONT ACROSS NRN TAF
SITES FRI WHILE DOWNEAST SITES REMAIN VFR...THEN ALL SITES WILL BE
VFR FRI NGT THRU SAT NGT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR/IFR WILL BE WITH SN
SHWRS AND DOWNEAST RN/SN SHWRS ON SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 4 FEET AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONT THU WITH LONG FETCH
SRLY COMPONENT SFC WINDS AND THEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER THU
NGT INTO FRI NGT WITH BRISK NW WINDS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN
SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA LATER SAT...AND CONT SO THRU MON. WENT WITH
A BLEND OF 12Z WW3...SWAN GFS...SWAN NAM AND SOME OF THE PREV FCST
FOR WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THAT STRETCHES FROM A 1010 MB SFC LOW OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT SHEBOYGAN IN WISCONSIN. SPLAYED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA IS 1025 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WE HAVE SEEN SOME VERY DRY AIR BUILD IN AT THE SFC WITH
THE HIGH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY IMAGE AT 21Z SHOWS THE
IMPACT OF THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH A NICE DONUT HOLE AROUND THE
MPX RADAR. HOWEVER...REFLECTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RDA IS LOWER
THAN IT IS EAST AND NORTHEAST...SO YOU CAN GET THE SENSE OF HOW THE
ATMOSPHERE IS QUICKLY MOISTENING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITES.
REGIONAL RADAR RIGHT NOW SHOWS TWO ENHANCED AREAS OF REFLECTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST MODELS SHOW THIS CURRENT TREND OF TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF QPF CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. ONE AREA
CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A BLOB OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT 21Z ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ITS
ASSOCIATED THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE. THE SECOND IS A BAND OF RADAR
RETURNS THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NORTH PLATTE IN CENTRAL
NEB...NORTHEAST THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND CONTINUES ON COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY NORTHEAST TO REDWOOD FALLS/BUFFALO/CAMBRIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY OVER TO THE SPOONER WI AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ENHANCED FGEN ALONG WITH SOME CSI CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THESE TWO PIECES OF FORCING IN SEVERAL OF THE
HI-RES MODELS. FOR INSTANCE...THE 05.18 HRRR SHOWS QPF OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES ACROSS SE MN WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE...A LULL IN TOTAL
QPF FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH HASTINGS WHERE ONLY A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF IS INDICATED...WITH THE CSI BAND SHOWING UP FROM REDWOOD FALLS
THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AND UP TOWARD RICE LAKE WHERE RUN TOTAL QPF IS
UP MORE IN THE 0.5 INCH RANGE THANKS TO THE ENHANCED FGEN/CSI
FORCING. FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...IT IS WHERE THIS FGEN
BAND SETS UP THAT WILL RESULT IN THE 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT
ARE EXPECTED.
COUPLE OF THINGS THAT MAKE THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST DIFFICULT ARE
NARROW NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FGEN BAND /NOT MUCH MORE THAN 50 MILES
WIDE/ ALONG WITH HOW QUICKLY DO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COOL TO
ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING MANY PLACES IN
THE TWIN CITIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S...IT IS THOSE DEW POINTS AND
THE ATTENDANT WET BULB TEMPERATURES THAT YOU REALLY NEED TO PAY
ATTENTION TO. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...SFC WEB BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH MEANS AS THE PRECIP EVAPORATES WE WILL
QUICKLY SEE TEMPS FALL OFF TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...WITH A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WEST OF A BLUE EARTH/WASECA/LADYSMITH
LINE SHORTLY AFTER RAIN BEGINS. EAST OF THIS LINE...DEWPS ARE STILL
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS RAPID CHANGEOVER WAS
LITCHFIELD...WHICH FIRST REPORTED RAIN AT 230 PM AND WAS ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW 20 MINUTES LATER.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS FOR WHERE THE 3-5 INCH BAND SETS UP
WAS NOT ALL THAT LARGE...RANGING ON THE 05.12 RUNS FROM BEING
CENTERED ALONG THE HENNEPIN/DAKOTA COUNTY LINE WITH THE NAM AND MORE
ALONG THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE WITH THE GFS/GEM.
HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/ECMWF BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. THE
ONE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WARNING
TYPE SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES/ IS SW MN...WHERE THE SNOW IS
ALREADY FLYING AND THE RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE FGEN BAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LONGEST.
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...THOUGH WOULD SAY THAT
MOST OF MN COULD BE ENDED AROUND 9Z...WITH WI ENDING AT 12Z...ABOUT
3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
FOR AS MUCH FUN AS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON. DID FAVOR THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW TOWARD A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...WHICH RESULTED IN THE COOLEST TEMPS /WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S/ ALONG WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDES
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS LESS SO AND
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPER
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR NOW. STILL
PROVIDES JUST A CHANCE OF MIXED TYPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EVENT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING ON OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT
WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CWA. THE ECWMF IS FASTER WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT DRAWING IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON THIS COLD
AIR INTRUSION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. STILL TIME TO DECIPHER MODEL TRENDS
WITH THIS OVERALL DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AT KRWF AND KSTC BY 09Z AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW MOVES
EAST ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING NW. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL REACH INTO
THE TWIN CITIES IN THE 10Z-12Z TIME FRAME. CIGS BLO 010 WITH VSBYS
1-3SM -SN WILL BE COMMON OVERNIGTH FOR KRNH AND KEAU WITH
IMPROVEMENT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THEREAFTER VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS BACKING TO
THE WSW BY EVENING.
KMSP...MOST INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
ATTM WITH LIGHTER BANDS TO THE WEST. VSBYS PROBABLY WILL NOT DROP
BELOW 1 1/2SM THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO END AROUND 10Z. CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FEET
BECOMING MVFR AFTER 10Z AND VFR BY 12Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1145 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 940 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Tonight`s rain event is unfolding about as expected. Have made
tweaks to bring categorical pops further north and east more
quickly, but the general forecast is about the same. Should see
the rain overspread the rest of the area through the 06-08Z as
moderate to strong isentropic lift continues on the nose of the
low level jet. Am monitoring the line of thunderstorms now in
southeast Kansas to possibly bring thunder to the southern 1/2 of
the CWFA. RAP forecasts up to 100 J/kg MUCAPE moving in ahead of
the front so I can`t rule it out. However, lightning strikes are
relatively few and far between right now and am thinking that
ongoing rain will be enough to dampen any instability. Will leave
mention of thunder out for now and continue to monitor.
Carney
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Main shield of rain from this morning has lifted north as
forecast, with only small batches of light rain and sprinkles
streaming northeast within the warm sector. Low pressure currently
located in north central Kansas will continue to advance northeast
along the stalled front into Iowa and Wisconsin tonight. Trailing
cold front will sweep east across Missouri and Illinois late
tonight and Wednesday with a period of rain and falling
temperatures expected.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Pattern flattens out in the wake of this system with a dry and
seasonal forecast remaining in tact despite a frontal passage on
Saturday. Precipitation chances may eventually increase next week
if better moisture can return ahead of a front poised to move
across the Midwest on Monday.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
MVFR/IFR cigs draped across the w 2/3 of Missouri this evening
have made very little ewd progression...with the leading edge of
these lower conditions remaining q-stationary near a KUNO-KUIN
line. Still expecting a general deterioration of conditions across
the CWA overnight as several more waves of showers push across the
region, but it may take several more hours before prevailing MVFR
conditions settle into STL metro area. Have attempted to tie
prevailing IFR cigs/vsbys to the time frame closer to fropa at
most locations. In addition, weakening convection has managed to
creep into west central MO, and believe some of this could reach
KCOU over the next few hours. Given the recent decease in
lightning strikes not certain how much of a thunder threat there
will be elsewhere, so Will let oncoming shift monitor trends to
determine if thunder should be added at other TAF locations in
later updates.
00z guidance continues to support thinking that there should be a
rapid improvement in conditions beginning several hours after
fropa, as increasing northwest winds end precip and begin
advecting in drier air that should erode low cloudiness.
Specifics for KSTL: Several rounds of light rain should cause
prevailing cigs and vsbys to dip into MVFR category during the
predawn hours and persist into early Wednesday morning, with a brief
drop to IFR cigs/vsbys occurring around the 15z fropa. A rapid
improvement should then begin several hours after fropa, with low
end MVFR cigs by midday, with these ceiling then lifting during
the afternoon and scattering out by early Wednesday evening.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1136 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS OF 02Z...RADAR RETURNS FROM KUEX INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAP DATA SUGGEST THE 700MB MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OUR CWA AT THIS HOUR...AND QUICKLY DEPARTING TO
THE NORTHEAST. RADAR DATA FROM KLNX DOES INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THE RESULT OF SUBTLE
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH 06Z. THAT
BEING SAID...VERY LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY AND AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...WHICH WAS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWEST...WAS
CANCELLED.
UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. THE GOING FORECAST WAS IN GREAT SHAPE OTHERWISE...WITH ONLY
A FEW ADDITIONAL TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...SKY...WIND...AND DEW POINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW
IN OUR W/NW BY MID/LATE MORNING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF AN INCH WHILE OTHER REPORTS OF OVER ONE INCH
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH AND MADE THE SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE GOTHENBURG AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO
ARCADIA/ORD/GREELEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAP HAS BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING/SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WELL AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NEB. THE MID LEVEL H7 CIRCULATION TENDS TO INTERMITTENTLY CLOSE
AS IT LIFTS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND/PSEUDO
DEFORMATION REMAINING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THIS BEING
SAID...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD.
AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH...THE LINGERING RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GENOA TO HASTINGS TO
FRANKLIN FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NW/W CWA...WHERE CURRENTLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SNOW
BAND SETS UP THIS EVENING. THE LAST SNOW REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE
ORD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAD A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF JUST OVER
ONE INCH. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE
PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ENDED PCPN BY 06Z...BUT OUR FAR
NORTH MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION
NEXT TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE VERY FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRIDAY AND WITH WINDS ALOFT OF OVER 40 KTS
EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH
SOUTH WINDS THE GFS BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS EAST WINDS AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE WENT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS TIME AND HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY AREA OBS SHOWING MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING IN PLACE...AND EXPECT THAT CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD DRIFT EAST WITH
TIME. ONCE THEY DO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THOSE WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BRYANT
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.
IFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE MORNING WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT ABOVE FL010 BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. A BAND OF
DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH 10-12Z...DROPPING VSBYS
TO 3 MILES AT TIMES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES AFTER 20Z.
DERGAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
UPDATE...
WITH SNOW PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW THERE LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS DEFORMATION ZONE
ROTATES IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS
AREA TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES EAST. ALSO...ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
DERGAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST PER
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOME LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE PUSHED PAST 1 INCH...AS IT PRODUCED DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH TAPPED DECENT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS/WAS DESPITE ANEMIC UPPER HGT FALLS...20-40M AT
H5. SHORT TERM QPF FROM 4KM WRF/RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO LIFT
PRECIP ENE WITH IT EXITING SWRN ZONES NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF DWINDLING PRECIP
PROBABLY LINGERING OVER NERN NEBR ALL NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
TRACE FLURRIES YET IN THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT STLT/RADAR
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE
ALONE FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON SERN
EDGE OF ADVISORY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH APPROACHING NIGHTFALL...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE EASILY TO COME BY BUT MOST
ADDITIONAL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...OR LESS...AFT 00Z. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY MAKE IT TO OMAHA/LINCOLN BUT IT APPEARS COLDER
AIR SUPPORTING THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE CITIES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM IS MAINLY TEMPERATURE
DRIVEN AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. DID BUMP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON WED WHERE GROUND
WILL BE ABSENT ANY SNOW AS WIND DIRECTION...NW SHIFTING TO WSW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. BUT IF CLOUDS FAIL TO CLEAR...WHICH
WAS NOT EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE A DWINDLING IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NORTH...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN PREV FORECAST
AND LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CHANGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY E...AS RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET UP TOO LATE TO
KEEP MANY TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 20S THAT GUIDANCE
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAVE LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH GREAT VARIATION SEEN BTWN THE ECM/GFS/CMC. THUS MAKING TEMP
FCST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
AS OF NOW...LATEST ECM PROGS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM
ZONAL TO DEVELOPING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS...ONE OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUS FAVORING A COLD
PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER BASICALLY
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE THE CMC DIGS AN UPPER
TROF THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. COMPARISON
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS BTWN THE 05/00Z ECMMOS AND 05/12Z MEX CLEARLY
SHOWING THE DISTINCTION. HIGHS PROGGED NEXT TUES AT KOMA...ECM MOS
36/MEX 49. GIVEN THAT THE ECM HAS PROVEN TO OUT PERFORM ON A REGULAR
BASIS...FEEL COMPELLED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION.
AS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES...WILL AGAIN OPT TO GO WITH THE
DRIER ECM.
DEE
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 PM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND SHOULD BE REACHING ROSWELL SHORTLY...WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...QUIET NIGHT IN STORE WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS BTW 25-30KTS IN
NW FLOW POSSIBLE AROUND KCQC WEDNESDAY AFTN.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MST TUE NOV 5 2013...
IMPRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER ROUGHLY
THE PAST 18 HOURS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM HOWEVER THESE WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS A POTENT DRY SLOT SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE AREA. A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND TEMPS ARE PLUMMETING ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LATEST HRRR AND RUC
GUIDANCE WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OR A SMALL
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES BETWEEN RED RIVER
AND RATON PASS...AND FROM NEAR DES MOINES/CAPULIN EAST TO CLAYTON FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE FOCUSED CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER COLORADO AND EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY AIR INVADES THE STATE. 20Z OBS ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND AROUND
SW COLORADO ALREADY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS. CLEAR SKIES ON
TAP WILL LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 10F WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUN MAKING IT FEEL
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE EVEN STRONGER
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS WITHIN THE ABQ METRO ON THE ORDER OF 20+
DEGREES BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
A FAST MOVING DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS COLORADO AND
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD TO
MODIFYING TEMPS WITH READINGS NOW 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. NEUTRAL TO
VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
BY WARM ADVECTION AS THE FLOWS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK VERY NICE AS TEMPS MODIFYING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
A FEW TO 11 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
FARTHER EAST...READINGS SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 11 DEGREES DUE TO THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE BETTER VENTILATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
A WEAK LEE TROUGH. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW TO 9 DEGREES...EXCEPT FROM
ALBUQUERQUE TO GALLUP...FARMINGTON AND CHAMA WHERE A BROAD AREA OF
POOR VENTILATION SHOULD PERSIST AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
CAUSING WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 20-35 KTS WHILE
A SHARP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT VENTILATION AREAWIDE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE BREEZIEST IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 9 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. POOR VENTILATION MAY ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN A BIT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN AFTER SATURDAYS BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THE PLAINS.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1104 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT UNTIL FROPA. SHRA
ACTIVITY STARTING TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SO WILL CHANGE THE
-DZ TO -RA...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE. THUNDER STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY
LOW PROBABILITY AND TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE NO MENTION OF TSRA.
WILL ADJUST FROPA TIMING UP TO 11Z IN METROPLEX AND 13Z IN WACO
BASED ON LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS. 84
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013/
A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CWA THROUGH
00Z AND WILL THEN TRANSITION THE LIKELY POPS EVEN FARTHER
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. THIS RAIN SHIELD IS IN RESPONSE TO
CONTINUED WEAK WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITHOUT
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. AT 2 PM...THE FRONT WAS JUST ABOUT
TO ENTER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
FRONT ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE 3 AM. IT WILL
THEN PUSH THROUGH THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM...THEN REACH
WACO/TEMPLE/KILLEEN AROUND 9 AM AND THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
CWA BY NOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES. EXPECT A WEAK
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER TONIGHT IN OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA.
THE TTU WRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING VERY LITTLE RAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT WORRISOME.
EVEN THOUGH IT DOES SHOW LESS ACTIVITY...RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL
HIGH...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WOULD SUFFER IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES.
LOW AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
HOLDING STEADY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. ALL PRECIP SHOULD BE
ENDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE QUITE COLDER WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
WITH LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER TEXAS BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO TRANSLATE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND.
ANOTHER WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME RAIN AND WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS IN THE
FORECAST.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 57 62 42 67 45 / 100 50 0 0 5
WACO, TX 63 66 40 68 42 / 90 60 5 5 5
PARIS, TX 60 62 36 64 40 / 100 70 10 0 5
DENTON, TX 55 61 37 65 39 / 100 40 0 0 5
MCKINNEY, TX 58 61 37 64 41 / 100 50 0 0 5
DALLAS, TX 58 63 43 66 46 / 100 50 5 0 5
TERRELL, TX 62 64 41 64 42 / 100 60 5 0 5
CORSICANA, TX 63 68 42 66 44 / 90 60 5 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 64 68 40 66 43 / 80 60 10 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 51 62 37 66 39 / 80 40 0 0 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
334 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
333 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...EXITING RAIN/DZ/SOME -SN
THIS MORNING...CLOUD TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES.
06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR OELWEIN
IA...LIFTING QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT FROM NEAR KGRB TO
KALO. STRONGEST OF THE SFC-700MB FORCING/LIFT WAS TRANSLATING
QUICKLY NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW...WITH PRECIP ALREADY TAPERING OFF/
ENDING ACROSS THE WEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. DEFORMATION BAND OF
MAINLY -SN WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WAS DECREASING AS WELL.
TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT QUITE IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH MID 50S INTO SOUTHWEST WI AHEAD OF IT TO UPPER
30S/LOW 40S ONLY 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY. DECREASING
CLOUDS/CLEARING ALREADY SPREADING INTO WESTERN MN.
MODEL RUNS OF 06.00Z INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND OFFER A TIGHT
CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS TIGHT CONSENSUS
AGAIN FAVORS THE FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE PLAINS TROUGH
QUICKLY SWINGS THRU THE REGION TODAY. TREND APPEARS A BIT WEAKER
WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO DROP DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE
BROADER TROUGH AND INTO MN TONIGHT. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT
06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE REASONABLE WITH THE NORTHEAST IA SFC LOW.
MODELS QUITE GOOD WITH THE SHARP TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE FRONT
THRU WI/IA. MODELS ALL TRENDING WELL WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. PER WV IMAGERY ALL APPEARED GOOD WITH
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING RATHER QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE TIGHTENING CONSENSUS
AND NO GLARING ERRORS...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WITH
SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINING GOOD.
FASTER TREND OF MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE/LIFT EAST OF THE AREA MORE QUICKLY THRU THIS MORNING...
WITH THE FCST AREA NOW LOOKING TO BE PRECIP-FREE BY 18Z. HAVE
TRENDED FCST GRIDS FOR THE FASTER PRECIP EXIT. WITH DECREASING
DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS...CARRIED ANY
PRECIP THIS MORNING AS DRIZZLE. BIGGER QUESTION TODAY IS HOW
QUICKLY WILL SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE FCST AREA. STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL/CONSENSUS FOR DEEP/STRONG DRYING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST
AREA IN DEEP SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE 850-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW THIS TO NEAR A KMDZ-KLSE-
STRAWBERRY POINT IA LINE BY 18Z. GIVEN OBS/SATELLITE TRENDS OVER
WESTERN MN...THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE AND TRENDED GRIDS FOR
MORE RAPID CLEARING TODAY. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL OFFSET THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WITH NEARLY
STEADY TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TO 925-900MB TODAY...FOR SOME
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO MN TONIGHT BRINGS WITH IT SOME MOISTURE
BETWEEN 850-700MB. SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WEAKENS THRU
THE NIGHT AND ANY SFC-700MB FORCING/LIFT IS QUITE WEAK. LITTLE MORE
THAN SCT-BKN 5K-8K FT CLOUDS EXPECTED. WITH WEAKER WINDS AS THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THE RECENT
RAINS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR BR/FG OVER THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/
LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
333 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
RAIN CHANCES LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT...TEMPERATURES.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN/IMPROVE FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT
ON THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THIS PERIOD. HGTS RISE THU
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO PASS EARLY FRI AND THE FLOW TO BECOME
NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BY LATE FRI. EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY TRACKS FROM OR/WA COAST AT 18Z THU TO EAST OF THE
AREA BY 12Z SAT. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW THIS PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS
AS GOOD AS IT WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE FRI NIGHT IS A BIT SURPRISING.
FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD FOR THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES/MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THU
INTO FRI MORNING. FOR DRY/QUIET/COOL WEATHER. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT. IF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE AND
CAN STAY DECOUPLED THRU THE NIGHT...NOT A GUARANTEE WITH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS MOVING QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN BY 12Z FRI...SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WOULD
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. LEFT LATE THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING
FOG MENTION OUT OF FCST GRIDS FOR NOW. SFC LOW QUICKLY MOVES INTO
WESTERN MN BY 00Z SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER MUCH OF
MN/IA/WI THRU FRI...FOR SOME BRISK SOUTH WINDS AND WARMING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. MORE MOISTURE/LIFT...MAINLY ABOVE 700MB...AHEAD
OF/WITH THIS LOW/SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRI/FRI
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SENDS 925-850MB TEMPS ABOVE 0C ACROSS
THE AREA FOR FRI AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH BULK OF ANY PRECIP CHANCE
THESE PERIODS AS -RA...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SOME -SN ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA TOWARD 12Z SAT. QUESTION IS WILL ANY
PRECIP PRODUCED ABOVE 700MB BE ABLE TO FALL THRU THE DRIER SFC-700MB
LAYER AND REACH THE GROUND. LEFT PRECIP CHANCES FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE
20-40 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE
FCST AREA CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
USED A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FOR THE HIGHS/LOWS THIS PERIOD.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 06.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS SAT/SAT NIGHT AS TROUGHING SLIDES EAST OF THE
REGION SAT AND BROAD RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
SAT NIGHT. MODELS THEN DIVERGE WITH TIMING/STRENGTH DETAILS OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PASS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATER SUN INTO MON
AND YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE
REGION TUE. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVES QUITE A BIT TO BE DESIRED
BY MON/TUE. FCST CONFIDENCE ON THE GOOD SIDE SAT...THEN ON THE LOW
SIDE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH IMPROVING CONSENSUS SAT FOR THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO BE SLIDING
EAST OF THE AREA...ANY LINGERING -RA/-SN CHANCE LOOKS CONFINED TO
THE MORNING. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
LATER SAT THRU SUN...UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO PASS ACROSS ONT CENTERED ON SUN NIGHT DRIVES A COLD FRONT
INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN NIGHT/MON. PLENTY OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THRU THE AREA AND HOW MUCH
MOISTURE MAY ACCOMPANY IT. MAY YET NEED A SPRINKLE/FLURRY MENTION
MAINLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 SUN NIGHT INTO MON BUT AGAIN
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW BY MON. SOME CONSENSUS THAT THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP TOWARD THE REGION TUE WOULD BE STRONGER
WITH MORE OF A LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT RESPONSE
AND PERHAPS MORE MOISTURE. A SMALL -RA/-SN CHANCE BY TUE PER A
MODEL/ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE REASONABLE FOR NOW. BETTER CONFIDENCE IN
THE MON/TUE PERIOD FOR TEMPS TO BE BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS FOR THE SAT THRU TUE HIGHS/LOWS LOOKS WELL TRENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SURFACE LOW HAS PROGRESSED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND WAS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN CONTINUES
OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THIS ALREADY COMING THROUGH
KRST. EXPECT TO SEE THE RAIN BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...EXPECT TO SEE THE FORCING REALLY DROP OFF
BUT STILL HAVE SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND
EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE. THE 06.00Z NAM AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR KRST. HOWEVER...
THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO COLD WITH SURFACE TEMPS
THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE COLDER AIR HAS BEEN SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND CONCERNED THAT IT MAY NOT ARRIVE
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. BASED ON THESE TWO CONCERNS...CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KRST BUT
AT THIS POINT...FEEL THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN IFR UNTIL ABOUT
12Z WHEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR STARTS TO MOVE ALLOWING THESE TO
COME UP TO MVFR AND THEN EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1138 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)
320 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
ATTENTION SQUARELY ON THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT...AND WITH COOLER AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...COULD SEE A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW...
AND MAYBE EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE.
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS...
WITH A WARM FRONT REACHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WI. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OK/KS.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN REACHING FROM
IA AND NORTHERN IL UP INTO SOUTHEAST MN AND SOUTHERN WI. FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SD... THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A MORE
LAMINAR LOOK...SUGGESTING SNOW. INDEED...LOOKING AT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OUT THAT WAY...SNOW WAS INDEED FLYING.
LATEST MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES RATHER QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE OVER NW MO
AROUND 00Z...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE IN EASTERN WI ALREADY BY 12Z.
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 200% OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS A SLAM
DUNK OBVIOUSLY...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM HEADING
OVER SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS MAINLY IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM. THE ONLY AREA WHERE THIS IS NOT TRUE
IS THE FAR NORTHWEST EDGE...FROM ALBERT LEA/KASSON MN...UP THROUGH
WABASHA...TO NEAR ABBOTSFORD/MEDFORD WI. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
FILTER IN LATER THIS EVENING TO ALLOW FOR A MIX WITH OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. STILL APPEARS THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5 INCHES WILL LIE JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT SOME SPOTS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE COULD SEE SOME
BRIEF ACCUMULATIONS UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO ON GRASSY AREAS AND
OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES. THE MAIN UPWARD MOTION AND FORCING SHIFT
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS ALLOWS THE FRONT
TO MOVE BACK SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT...ALLOWING THE COLD AIR TO
INVADE. BUT LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS COLD AIR ARRIVES
JUST AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD AND SUPPLY OF ICE FOR SEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS MOVES AWAY. IF THE ICE CAN LINGER LONGER...WE MAY SEE A
BIT MORE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BUT EVEN IF WE DO...IT
LIKELY WILL NOT ADD UP TO MUCH. AND IF THE ICE INDEED DOES
DEPART...SOUNDINGS SUPPORT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
COULD SOME OF THIS MANIFEST AS FREEZING DRIZZLE? CERTAINLY IT
COULD...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN
WEST OF ROCHESTER. FURTHER EAST...THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND
BECOME LIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO DRIZZLE AS WELL.
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EJECTS QUICKLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO
THAT BY MID-DAY THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED. SKIES WILL THEN
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES BY SUNSET. DESPITE THE CLEARING AND RESULTING SUNSHINE...
THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR WILL OFFSET THE WARMING EFFECTS OF THE
SUN...SO NOT MUCH WARMING IS ANTICIPATED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
320 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY DROPPING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH COULD BRING MORE CLOUDINESS OVER WI THURSDAY...WITH THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE. BUT THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION YET.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ZIPPING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CONUS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND TODAY NO DIFFERENT. AS THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW CENTER PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...OUR
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH THE WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LEADING WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH NO FORCING ALONG IT...DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.
MODELS REALLY DIVERGE WITH RESPECT TO ENERGY ROTATING AROUND A
CANADIAN TROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST 05.12Z ECMWF
HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE GFS. DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL
BE MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT...BUT A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR LOOKS TO INVADE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY SENDING
TEMPERATURES ON A DOWNWARD TREND. WAS CONSERVATIVE ON THIS COOLING
TREND AT THIS POINT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SURFACE LOW HAS PROGRESSED RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND WAS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN CONTINUES
OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD
STARTING TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THIS ALREADY COMING THROUGH
KRST. EXPECT TO SEE THE RAIN BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS THE FORCING CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...EXPECT TO SEE THE FORCING REALLY DROP OFF
BUT STILL HAVE SOME OMEGA THROUGH THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS AND
EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE. THE 06.00Z NAM AND RAP CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR KRST.
HOWEVER...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISENTLY TOO COLD WITH SURFACE
TEMPS THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE COLDER AIR HAS BEEN
SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND CONCERNED THAT IT MAY NOT
ARRIVE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. BASED ON THESE TWO
CONCERNS...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AT KRST BUT AT THIS POINT...FEEL THE PROBABILITY
OF THIS OCCURRING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN IFR UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WHEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR STARTS TO MOVE ALLOWING THESE TO COME UP TO MVFR AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
940 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
318 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS WRAPPING UP AND ESCORTING
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA.
WAVES OF RAIN ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING FIRST IN
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MID MORNING...INTO CHGO METRO AROUND MIDDAY AND
NW INDY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER NC IL AND
PROBABLY SOME EMBEDDED AREAS PICKING UP OVER AN INCH WHERE THE
HEAVIEST ELEMENTS LINE UP. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
POTENTIAL PONDING OF WATER TYPE ISSUES IN THE URBANIZED POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING`S RUSH HOUR...BUT OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
ENDING OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
SHOULD SEND TEMPS TUMBLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WITH THE FROPA AND
HAVE SHARPENED THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH WITH PROBABLY A GOOD 10F DROP WITHIN AN HOUR OF FROPA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST A RAPID CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONT AND WHILE ITS NOT TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR TO NOT HAVE POST
FRONTAL STRATUS...HARD TO DISPUTE SUCH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT SO
HAVE SHARPENED UP THE CLEARING LINE AND SPED IT UP AS WELL.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ASSUMING WE CLEAR OUT AS ADVERTISED IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME
SPOTTY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
LOW SPOTS.
PRETTY LAME WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DO BRING A
STRONG CLIPPER THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
THAT THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD MISS OUR CWA AND WITH SYSTEM HAVING
TO RELY ON SQUEEZING OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS ALREADY
PRESENT...THINKING OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIM. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH
NEAR STEADY TEMPS...OR POSSIBLY AN EVENING LOW WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. THE MILD START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT MILDER
DAY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPS DOWN A BIT SUNDAY.
HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK MEANS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
LEAVES ME GUN SHY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE BLENDED MODEL
CONCOCTION THAT WE USE TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST. IF ECMWF IS RIGHT
WE WOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMP-WISE MONDAY WHILE GFS HAS US SOLIDLY
BELOW AVERAGE...SO STAY TUNED!
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT BETWEEN 17 AND
1730 UTC.
* TIMING LIFTING OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
TRS/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AT 11Z A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS FROM EASTERN MANITOBA SSW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THEN SW BACK TO OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WITHIN THE FAST SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WERE MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES LIFTING TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...ONE OF
WHICH HAD GENERATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING NE OUT THE AREA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OVERHEAD
TO THE NE OF THE AREA.
THIS LEAVES A SATURATED COLUMN OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID AND LATE
MORNING SO EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE ON THE LOW SIDE WHILE -RA/-SHRA
HANG AROUND AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET MAXIMA MOVE OVER THE THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF CFP AT AROUND 18Z STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION OF RAP OUTPUT MAINTAINING THE SHARPER WIND SHIFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE W AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE GRADUAL
VEERING DEPICTED BY THE COARSER MODELS. WHILE TREND UPSTREAM
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAD BEEN S WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE N WITH THE FROPA BUT THIS HAS BECOME MORE
OF SSW TO NNW WSHFT EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE TODAY FELL THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SW TO NW WSHFT BY THE TIME THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE HAD BEEN A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE RISE CENTER FROM N CENTRAL AND SW IA TO EASTERN
KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THIS PRESSURE RISE CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO
SW MO BY PREDAWN. WHILE DO EXPECT THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO
BE MODERATELY GUSTY FEEL THAT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE.
WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR SKIES WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND DIURNALLY DUE TO THE DECOUPLING...AS WELL AS DUE
TO A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS
DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ALSO AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
PROGGED TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS AND MID
MO VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING WITH WIND SHIFT AT 1700 TO 1730
UTC.
* MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WINDS.
TRS/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR...MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
411 AM CST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL BE
GUSTING TO 35 KT ON CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LAKE MI
UNTIL MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM WI INTO
ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THEY WILL
WILL INCREASE AGAIN POST FRONTAL THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
DESPITE THE LOW MOVING NE TO THE CENTRAL QUEBEC BY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST DURING FRIDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS ANTHER LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EAST TO WESTERN ONTARIO. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
810 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
318 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS WRAPPING UP AND ESCORTING
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA.
WAVES OF RAIN ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING FIRST IN
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MID MORNING...INTO CHGO METRO AROUND MIDDAY AND
NW INDY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER NC IL AND
PROBABLY SOME EMBEDDED AREAS PICKING UP OVER AN INCH WHERE THE
HEAVIEST ELEMENTS LINE UP. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
POTENTIAL PONDING OF WATER TYPE ISSUES IN THE URBANIZED POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING`S RUSH HOUR...BUT OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
ENDING OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
SHOULD SEND TEMPS TUMBLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WITH THE FROPA AND
HAVE SHARPENED THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH WITH PROBABLY A GOOD 10F DROP WITHIN AN HOUR OF FROPA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST A RAPID CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONT AND WHILE ITS NOT TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR TO NOT HAVE POST
FRONTAL STRATUS...HARD TO DISPUTE SUCH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT SO
HAVE SHARPENED UP THE CLEARING LINE AND SPED IT UP AS WELL.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ASSUMING WE CLEAR OUT AS ADVERTISED IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME
SPOTTY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
LOW SPOTS.
PRETTY LAME WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DO BRING A
STRONG CLIPPER THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
THAT THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD MISS OUR CWA AND WITH SYSTEM HAVING
TO RELY ON SQUEEZING OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS ALREADY
PRESENT...THINKING OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIM. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH
NEAR STEADY TEMPS...OR POSSIBLY AN EVENING LOW WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. THE MILD START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT MILDER
DAY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPS DOWN A BIT SUNDAY.
HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK MEANS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
LEAVES ME GUN SHY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE BLENDED MODEL
CONCOCTION THAT WE USE TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST. IF ECMWF IS RIGHT
WE WOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMP-WISE MONDAY WHILE GFS HAS US SOLIDLY
BELOW AVERAGE...SO STAY TUNED!
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT AROUND MIDDAY.
* WIND SPEED AND GUSTS PRE AND POST FRONTAL.
* TIMING LIFTING OF IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.
TRS/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AT 11Z A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS FROM EASTERN MANITOBA SSW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THEN SW BACK TO OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WITHIN THE FAST SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WERE MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES LIFTING TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...ONE OF
WHICH HAD GENERATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING NE OUT THE AREA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OVERHEAD
TO THE NE OF THE AREA.
THIS LEAVES A SATURATED COLUMN OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID AND LATE
MORNING SO EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE ON THE LOW SIDE WHILE -RA/-SHRA
HANG AROUND AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET MAXIMA MOVE OVER THE THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF CFP AT AROUND 18Z STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION OF RAP OUTPUT MAINTAINING THE SHARPER WIND SHIFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE W AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE GRADUAL
VEERING DEPICTED BY THE COARSER MODELS. WHILE TREND UPSTREAM
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAD BEEN S WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE N WITH THE FROPA BUT THIS HAS BECOME MORE
OF SSW TO NNW WSHFT EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE TODAY FELL THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SW TO NW WSHFT BY THE TIME THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE HAD BEEN A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE RISE CENTER FROM N CENTRAL AND SW IA TO EASTERN
KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THIS PRESSURE RISE CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO
SW MO BY PREDAWN. WHILE DO EXPECT THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO
BE MODERATELY GUSTY FEEL THAT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE.
WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR SKIES WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND DIURNALLY DUE TO THE DECOUPLING...AS WELL AS DUE
TO A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS
DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ALSO AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
PROGGED TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS AND MID
MO VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH ON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING WITH WIND SHIFT AT 18Z +/- 1HR.
* MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CIG IMPROVEMENTS THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH WITH WINDS.
TRS/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR...MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
411 AM CST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL BE
GUSTING TO 35 KT ON CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LAKE MI
UNTIL MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM WI INTO
ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THEY WILL
WILL INCREASE AGAIN POST FRONTAL THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
DESPITE THE LOW MOVING NE TO THE CENTRAL QUEBEC BY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST DURING FRIDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS ANTHER LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EAST TO WESTERN ONTARIO. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ868-LMZ870 UNTIL 9
AM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-
LMZ878 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
655 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.DISCUSSION...
318 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS WRAPPING UP AND ESCORTING
THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA.
WAVES OF RAIN ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO THE
AREA...WITH SOME EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...ESPECIALLY
UPSTREAM. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING FIRST IN
WESTERN CWA TOWARD MID MORNING...INTO CHGO METRO AROUND MIDDAY AND
NW INDY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO
AN INCH OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON WITH LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER NC IL AND
PROBABLY SOME EMBEDDED AREAS PICKING UP OVER AN INCH WHERE THE
HEAVIEST ELEMENTS LINE UP. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME
POTENTIAL PONDING OF WATER TYPE ISSUES IN THE URBANIZED POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THIS MORNING`S RUSH HOUR...BUT OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL.
ENDING OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
SHOULD SEND TEMPS TUMBLING QUICKLY INTO THE 40S WITH THE FROPA AND
HAVE SHARPENED THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS...THOUGH LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH WITH PROBABLY A GOOD 10F DROP WITHIN AN HOUR OF FROPA.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST A RAPID CLEARING AFTER THE
FRONT AND WHILE ITS NOT TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR TO NOT HAVE POST
FRONTAL STRATUS...HARD TO DISPUTE SUCH STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT SO
HAVE SHARPENED UP THE CLEARING LINE AND SPED IT UP AS WELL.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND ASSUMING WE CLEAR OUT AS ADVERTISED IT
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME
SPOTTY VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED
LOW SPOTS.
PRETTY LAME WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS DO BRING A
STRONG CLIPPER THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
THAT THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD MISS OUR CWA AND WITH SYSTEM HAVING
TO RELY ON SQUEEZING OUT WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS ALREADY
PRESENT...THINKING OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE VERY SLIM. INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH
NEAR STEADY TEMPS...OR POSSIBLY AN EVENING LOW WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS. THE MILD START TO THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SOMEWHAT MILDER
DAY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT COLD FRONT COOLS TEMPS DOWN A BIT SUNDAY.
HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK MEANS LOW CONFIDENCE AND
LEAVES ME GUN SHY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE BLENDED MODEL
CONCOCTION THAT WE USE TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST. IF ECMWF IS RIGHT
WE WOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMP-WISE MONDAY WHILE GFS HAS US SOLIDLY
BELOW AVERAGE...SO STAY TUNED!
IZZI
&&
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LLWS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
* ENDING OF MODERATE TO OCNLY HEAVY RA WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO.
* TIMING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
* WIND SPEED AND GUSTS PRE AND POST FRONTAL.
* LIFTING OF IFR CIGS TO MVFR FOLLOWING CFP AND EVENTUALLY TO VFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
AT 11Z A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WAS FROM EASTERN MANITOBA SSW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THEN SW BACK TO OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
WITHIN THE FAST SW FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WERE MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES LIFTING TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...ONE OF
WHICH HAD GENERATED SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING NE OUT THE AREA WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OVERHEAD
TO THE NE OF THE AREA.
THIS LEAVES A SATURATED COLUMN OVER THE AREA FOR THE MID AND LATE
MORNING SO EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE ON THE LOW SIDE WHILE -RA/-SHRA
HANG AROUND AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET MAXIMA MOVE OVER THE THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF CFP AT AROUND 18Z STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION OF RAP OUTPUT MAINTAINING THE SHARPER WIND SHIFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO THE W AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE GRADUAL
VEERING DEPICTED BY THE COARSER MODELS. WHILE TREND UPSTREAM
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HAD BEEN S WINDS QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE N WITH THE FROPA BUT THIS HAS BECOME MORE
OF SSW TO NNW WSHFT EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE TODAY FELL THAT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO SW TO NW WSHFT BY THE TIME THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THERE HAD BEEN A FAIRLY
STRONG PRESSURE RISE CENTER FROM N CENTRAL AND SW IA TO EASTERN
KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THIS PRESSURE RISE CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO
SW MO BY PREDAWN. WHILE DO EXPECT THE NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO
BE MODERATELY GUSTY FEEL THAT THEY SHOULD GENERALLY STAY IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE.
WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR SKIES WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...AND DIURNALLY DUE TO THE DECOUPLING...AS WELL AS DUE
TO A LARGE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS
DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ALSO AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
PROGGED TO BE DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS AND MID
MO VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH ON FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT AT 18Z +/- 1HR.
* MEDIUM ON TIMING OF IFR LIFTING BACK TO MVFR WITH FROPA.
* HIGH ON WIND DIRECTIONS PRE AND POST FRONTAL...MODERATE IN
SUSTAINED AND GUST SPEEDS EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.
* HIGH ON CLEARING SKY DURING LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR...NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR...MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR...NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
411 AM CST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING BUT STILL BE
GUSTING TO 35 KT ON CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LAKE MI
UNTIL MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM WI INTO
ONTARIO BY MIDDAY. AS IT DOES IT WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN SHIFTING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL
BE A SHORT LULL IN THE WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. THEY WILL
WILL INCREASE AGAIN POST FRONTAL THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION
DESPITE THE LOW MOVING NE TO THE CENTRAL QUEBEC BY EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST DURING FRIDAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AS ANTHER LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES
FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA EAST TO WESTERN ONTARIO. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE A POSSIBILITY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 PM
WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
945 AM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH IS
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA COAST. A LONG
EASTERLY FETCH AT THE SURFACE CROSSES OVER A THOUSAND MILES OF
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATER BEFORE COMING ONSHORE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 7500 FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING AREAS OF EXTENSIVE ALTOCUMULUS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
300K THETA SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
CAPE FEAR REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY AND AN INCREASING SHOWER
POTENTIAL NOTED. FARTHER INLAND THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT A 50/50 MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS QUITE MILD FOR THIS
DATE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S DESPITE THE CLOUDS...A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT I HAVE MADE SOME UPWARD CHANGES TO POPS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE THE LATEST HRRR AND 06Z GFS SHOW A
CONCENTRATED "STREAMER" OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS IS ACTUALLY
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SCENARIO IN WEAKLY FORCED VEERING WIND
SITUATIONS...AND ASSUMING 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL
I PLAN TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WILMINGTON AREA OVER 50 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND CURRENTLY POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT REGION AS IT APPEARS THE LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND BEFORE THE 850-700 MB FLOW ATTAINS A BIT OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT...SHUTTING DOWN ANY ATLANTIC INFLOW. 12Z MODELS
SHOULD HELP REFINE THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING BELOW CLIMO TEMPS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. FRONT ITSELF MAY PASS DRY WITH THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
CAROLINAS THE 5H TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND THE
ORIENTATION OF THE 5H RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE TAP. ADDITIONALLY THE DYNAMICS ARE
DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND BAGGINESS IN THE GRADIENT OFF
THE COAST POINTS TO DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH...FURTHER LIMITING THE FRONTS ABILITY TO PRODUCE PRECIP.
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POP INLAND FOR FIRST HALF OF THU IS
REASONABLE BUT WILL BUMP UP POP TO CHC ALONG THE COAST FOR FIRST
PART OF THU.
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP UNDER 0.25 INCH BY
FRI MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES COLD
ADVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO. SOME AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
AROUND 60 FRI WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FRI NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF TIGHT GRADIENT AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
COULD MAKE FRI A BREEZY DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS START TO WEAKEN
FRI NIGHT BUT IT MAY BE A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS FAR AS
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS CONCERNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH COLDEST AIR REMAINING TRAPPED WELL TO
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SAT WILL BE REINFORCED BY SECOND
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT EARLY SUN. FRONT PASSES
DRY WITH NEXT TO NO COLD AIR...THE ONLY THING SIGNIFYING ITS PASSAGE
WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST. DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CLOUD COVER MAY START TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST SPREADS
EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
CAROLINAS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SAT WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY RUN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING IN...HOWEVER SOME MID CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SPRINKLE HERE AND
THERE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST DUE TO A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING A BIT
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN
AND OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A CONTINUED CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE
OVERNIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH SHARPENS A BIT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR
6-7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY AT THE OUTER MARGIN OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND 5-10 MILES FROM SHORE ACROSS THE NC
WATERS. THE CULPRIT IS A 1500+ MILE EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS MOST OF
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRODUCED BY 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA. AS THIS HIGH WEAKENS AND THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE FETCH
SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE WERE GENERALLY MINOR...LIMITED TO
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND RUC/HRRR
PROGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS. STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL AFTER
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATER THU. PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 20 TO
25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KT. GIVEN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY
AND LIMITED FETCH CONFIDENCE IN SEAS WITHIN 20 NM REACHING 6 FT FOR
ALL ZONES IS LOW...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SCA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT AND VEER TO NORTHEAST AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT EARLY THU WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE DECREASE
IN SPEED AND VEERING OF WINDS LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL KNOCK
SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD...BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS AND THEN DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE OF A WIND
SHIFT THAN A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS IN. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND
10 KT ON SAT TO 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN. SEAS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 2 FT
TO 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
420 AM PST Wed Nov 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet storm system is expected for tonight into Thursday. This
storm system will be milder with rain in the valleys and snow for
the mountains. Gusty winds will be likely. Cool, showery, and
unstable conditions will be coming for the weekend and into next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight..Anti-cyclonic curved ridge axis and associated
jet stream will remain parked over the Inland Northwest this
morning...with a weak shortwave trough embedded on the left front
quadrant of the jet over NE Washington. This shortwave is expected
to weaken significantly this morning as it dips slowly to the
southeast while the upper level jet begins to buckle northward
into BC. However as long as the shortwave persists it will still
be able to tap into a very moist surface-700 mb layer and should be
able to wring light precipitation out of the atmosphere. Radar loops
this morning have consistently shown showers over the Idaho
Panhandle ahead of this feature...and the models have not handled it
all that well. Fortunately the RUC model seems to buck that trend.
If we follow its solution...the low level southwest winds ahead of
the trough which are leading to good isentropic and orographic
ascent will gradually turn to the northwest and allow drier air to
spill into the area. This will result in a decreasing shower threat
through the morning...but up to an inch of snow is certainly
possible before all is said and done. Most of the snow will occur
over eastern sections of Kootenai, Benewah, Latah counties as well
as most of Shoshone County but above valley elevations as surface
temps are generally above freezing. Farther west...there is a
widespread stratus deck that will likely remain in place through
much of the day and could continue to produce some light drizzle
early as weak ascent will persist through a much shallower moist
layer. Otherwise...the weather looks rather benign for much of the
day.
For late this afternoon and tonight...the break in the weather will
come to an end as the ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area
and a warm front moves into the area from the southwest. This
front will bring a significant influx of moisture and a rapid
increase in the chances for precipitation overnight. Warmer air
will also filter into the area....and snow levels will steadily
rise from around 3-4k feet late this afternoon (lower across the
northeast Cascades) to nearly 6-7.5k by early Thursday morning.
That means the precipitation will largely fall as rain over all
valley locations...however lower snow levels will persist over the
northeast Cascades due to cold air damming and the warm air won`t
quite make it to the Canadian border by morning. The heaviest
amounts of precipitation will likely fall near the Cascade Crest
due to persistent south-southeast 850 mb flow. Values there could
range from .25-.60"...much of which will fall as snow at elevations
at or above 3500 feet. This will likely impact the passes in that
area...including the North Cascades Highway...Loup Loup and Stevens
Passes with heavy snow possible. That threat will continue through
Thursday and consequently we have issued a winter weather advisory
for snow. Just how fast the cold air can mix out will be the big
question and will largely determine how much snow accumulates. Looks
like the cold air will remain most stubborn north of Lake Chelan and
impact portions of the North Cascade Highway. Elsewhere look for
widespread rain to impact most areas overnight with amounts ranging
from .05 to .15 inches. fx
Thursday through Sunday night...Very moist low pressure system will
bring increasing precipitation to the Inland Northwest on
Thursday. A subtropical moisture tap will be drawn into the area
which combined with isentropic lift leads to a high confidence
forecast of all areas getting precip. The flow at 850mb will back
to the south Thursday morning with warmer air spreading into the
region with snow levels rising to 6000-7000 feet from Wenatchee to
Spokane to Kellogg and points south resulting in rain even in most
mountains south of this line. As usual colder air will be tough
to scrub near the Canadian border with GFS and NAM showing wet
bulb zero heights near 3000 feet in the morning...but should
eventually rise to 5000 feet in the afternoon as warmer air
continues to push northward with 850mb winds out of the south at
30-40 knots. The cold front moves into the region in the afternoon
for continued wet conditions...with the front exiting the Idaho
Panhandle early Thursday evening. Precipitation totals from the
models show 1-1.5 inches for the Cascade crest, around an inch for
the Idaho Panhandle, and 0.5-1.00 inches for Eastern
Washington...with up to a half inch for the Wenatchee area and
Columbia Basin. These values make sense given the subtropical
moisture tap.
Following the cold front moist zonal flow will favor showers in
the orographic favored areas of the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. Snow levels behind the front fall to 3000-4000 feet
supporting the potential for light snow accumulations for the
Cascade passes and Lookout Pass Thursday night. Breezy winds are
also expected behind the front on the palouse and in the Blue
Mountains where the strongest pressure gradient and instability
will be. In fact the NAM shows a marginal thunder threat in these
areas with the front passage late Thursday afternoon and evening.
For now will leave thunder out due to low confidence of this
occurring at this time. Another fast moving wave tracks through
in the zonal flow Friday which will likely enhance the shower
activity in the favored west flow upslope areas with a chance of
showers backfilling into Eastern Washington. Downslope should
dominate in the lee of the Cascades with Wenatchee, Omak, and
Moses Lake likely remaining dry on Friday. Friday night into
Saturday generally dry weather is favored as the next low pressure
system drops south along 140W building a weak ridge over the
Inland Northwest.
Saturday night through Sunday night models show increased moisture
moving in with the GFS lifting a warm front into the area while the
ECMWF shows a stalled frontal boundary over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho. While there are differences in the details the trend
will be for increasing precipitation chances. Snow levels look to
remain above valley floors except for elevations above 2000-2500
feet along the East Slopes of the Cascades and near the Canadian
Border where wet snow is possible in the higher valleys. JW
Monday and Tuesday: Monday is expected to be pretty quiet with
a ridge pattern dominating the region. The models are indicating
a Low approaching the Pacific Coast as the ridging breaks down.
The timing of the system is expected to be on Monday evening and
bring a warm front through the region. Rain showers are expected for
the Lower Columbia Basin. The higher elevations will get snow and
the valleys will be impacted by a rain/snow mix. The temperatures
are expected to be in line with the prior days. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Yet another low confidence forecast is at hand as stratus
and IFR/MVFR cigs will impact every forecast site at least through
18z. Most of the ceiling heights this morning were right around 1k
feet...and are expected rapidly vacillate on either side of that
critical IFR/MVFR threshold. Generally speaking through...we should
see a slow lifting of the ceiling heights through 18z. None of the
sites will experience any weather aside from COE...where some light
snow showers will remain possible through 16z or so. By
afternoon...we expect much of the lower stratus to break up...and
most sites will briefly improve into the VFR category. We went with
timing this improvement around 18z...based on conditional
climatology and BUFKIT data...however would not be terribly
surprised if things persist a little past that time. Between 00z-06z
tonight...the stratus will certainly breakup with the approach of a
strong warm front. This will gradually spread rain from SW to NE
overnight...and ceilings will once again likely lower to MVFR
heights. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 36 45 37 45 31 / 10 60 100 60 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 41 35 43 36 44 31 / 20 60 100 80 60 30
Pullman 44 39 47 38 45 33 / 10 40 100 70 40 20
Lewiston 48 41 51 42 52 35 / 10 40 90 60 30 20
Colville 44 34 41 36 46 31 / 10 80 100 50 40 20
Sandpoint 41 33 41 35 43 31 / 10 60 100 80 80 40
Kellogg 41 34 42 35 39 31 / 30 70 100 100 80 40
Moses Lake 45 38 48 35 53 30 / 10 50 80 20 10 10
Wenatchee 43 35 45 36 51 33 / 10 50 70 10 10 10
Omak 43 35 42 33 47 29 / 0 70 100 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPOKANE WA
303 AM PST Wed Nov 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A wet storm system is expected for tonight into Thursday. This
storm system will be milder with rain in the valleys and snow for
the mountains. Gusty winds will be likely. Cool, showery, and
unstable conditions will be coming for the weekend and into next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight..Anti-cyclonic curved ridge axis and associated
jet stream will remain parked over the Inland Northwest this
morning...with a weak shortwave trough embedded on the left front
quadrant of the jet over NE Washington. This shortwave is expected
to weaken significantly this morning as it dips slowly to the
southeast while the upper level jet begins to buckle northward
into BC. However as long as the shortwave persists it will still
be able to tap into a very moist surface-700 mb layer and should
be able to wring precipitation out of the atmosphere. Radar loops
this morning have consistently shown showers over the Idaho
Panhandle ahead of this feature...and the models have not handled
it all that well. Fortunately the RUC model seems to buck that
trend. If we follow its solution...the low level southwest winds
ahead of the trough which are leading to good isentropic and
orographic ascent will gradually turn to the northwest and allow
drier air to spill into the area. This will result in a decreasing
shower threat through the morning...but up to an inch of snow is
certainly possible before all is said and done. Most of the snow
will occur over eastern sections of Kootenai, Benewah, Latah
counties as well as most of Shoshone County but above valley
elevations as surface temps are generally above freezing. Farther
west...there is a widespread stratus deck that will likely remain
in place through much of the day and could continue to produce
some light drizzle early as weak ascent will persist through a
much shallower moist layer. Otherwise...the weather looks rather
benign for much of the day.
For late this afternoon and tonight...the break in the weather will
come to an end as the ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area
and a warm front moves into the area from the southwest. This
front will bring a significant influx of moisture and a rapid
increase in the chances for precipitation overnight. Warmer air
will also filter into the area....and snow levels will steadily
rise from around 3-4k feet late this afternoon (lower across the
northeast Cascades) to nearly 6-7.5k by early Thursday morning.
That means the precipitation will largely fall as rain over all
valley locations...however lower snow levels will persist over the
northeast Cascades due to cold air damming and the warm air won`t
quite make it to the Canadian border by morning. The heaviest
amounts of precipitation will likely fall near the Cascade Crest
due to persistent south-southeast 850 mb flow. Values there could
range from .25-.60" much of which will fall as snow at elevations
at or above 3500 feet. This will likely impact the passes in that
area...including Rainy...Loup Loup and Stevens with heavy snow
possible. That threat will continue through Thursday and
consequently we have issued a winter weather advisory for snow.
Just how fast the cold air can mix out will be the big question
and will largely determine how much snow accumulates. Looks like
the cold air will remain most stubborn along the North Cascade
Highway. Elsewhere look for widespread precipitation to impact
most areas overnight. fx
Thursday through Sunday night...Very moist low pressure system will
bring increasing precipitation to the Inland Northwest on
Thursday. A subtropical moisture tap will be drawn into the area
which combined with isentropic lift leads to a high confidence
forecast of all areas getting precip. The flow at 850mb will back
to the south Thursday morning with warmer air spreading into the
region with snow levels rising to 6000-7000 feet from Wenatchee to
Spokane to Kellogg and points south resulting in rain even in most
mountains south of this line. As usual colder air will be tough
to scrub near the Canadian border with GFS and NAM showing wet
bulb zero heights near 3000 feet in the morning...but should
eventually rise to 5000 feet in the afternoon as warmer air
continues to push northward with 850mb winds out of the south at
30-40 knots. The cold front moves into the region in the afternoon
for continued wet conditions...with the front exiting the Idaho
Panhandle early Thursday evening. Precipitation totals from the
models show 1-1.5 inches for the Cascade crest, around an inch for
the Idaho Panhandle, and 0.5-1.00 inches for Eastern
Washington...with up to a half inch for the Wenatchee area and
Columbia Basin. These values make sense given the subtropical
moisture tap.
Following the cold front moist zonal flow will favor showers in
the orographic favored areas of the Cascade crest and Idaho
Panhandle. Snow levels behind the front fall to 3000-4000 feet
supporting the potential for light snow accumulations for the
Cascade passes and Lookout Pass Thursday night. Breezy winds are
also expected behind the front on the palouse and in the Blue
Mountains where the strongest pressure gradient and instability
will be. In fact the NAM shows a marginal thunder threat in these
areas with the front passage late Thursday afteroon and evening.
For now will leave thunder out due to low confidence of this
occurring at this time. Another fast moving wave tracks through
in the zonal flow Friday which will likely enhance the shower
activity in the favored west flow upslope areas with a chance of
showers backfilling into Eastern Washington. Downslope should
dominate in the lee of the Cascades with Wenatchee, Omak, and
Moses Lake likely remaining dry on Friday. Friday night into
Saturday generally dry weather is favored as the next low pressure
system drops south along 140W building a weak ridge over the
Inland Northwest.
Saturday night through Sunday night models show increased moisture
moving in with the GFS lifting a warm front into the area while the
ECMWF shows a stalled frontal boundary over Eastern Washington and
North Idaho. While there are differences in the details the trend
will be for increasing precipitation chances. Snow levels look to
remain above valley floors except for elevations above 2000-2500
feet along the East Slopes of the Cascades and near the Canadian
Border where wet snow is possible in the higher valleys. JW
Monday and Tuesday: Monday is expected to be pretty quiet with
a ridge pattern dominating the region. The models are indicating
a Low approaching the Pacific Coast as the ridging breaks down.
The timing of the system is expected to be on Monday evening and
bring a warm front through the region. Rain showers are expected for
the Lower Columbia Basin. The higher elevations will get snow and
the valleys will be impacted by a rain/snow mix. The temperatures
are expected to be in line with the prior days. /JDC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Primarily IFR/LIFR conditions expected to linger in the
stable environment behind the exiting system, impacting the KGEG
to KCOE and KPUW area. Some -sn/-fzdz/-dz will affect extreme NE
WA and the northern panhandle overnight and possibly in the vcnty
of these sites as well, but the threat will diminish overnight.
Conditions may be slow to improve through the day Wednesday,
potentially not improving beyond IFR/MVFR conditions until after
noon. KMWH/KEAT is expected to remain IFR/MVFR through the night,
with possible fog development though 20Z. KLWS is expected to
degrade toward MVFR through the night, with some improvement in
the morning. Confidence is lower for conditions in vcnty of
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS. The next wet weather system will push into the
KEAT area just before 06Z Thursday. /EK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 42 36 45 37 45 31 / 10 60 100 60 40 20
Coeur d`Alene 41 35 43 36 44 31 / 20 60 100 80 60 30
Pullman 44 39 47 38 45 33 / 10 40 100 70 40 20
Lewiston 48 41 51 42 52 35 / 10 40 90 60 30 20
Colville 44 34 41 36 46 31 / 10 80 100 50 40 20
Sandpoint 41 33 41 35 43 31 / 10 60 100 80 80 40
Kellogg 41 34 42 35 39 31 / 30 70 100 100 80 40
Moses Lake 45 38 48 35 53 30 / 10 50 80 20 10 10
Wenatchee 43 35 45 36 51 33 / 10 50 70 10 10 10
Omak 43 35 42 33 47 29 / 0 70 100 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Thursday for East Slopes Northern Cascades.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
318 PM MST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST WED NOV 6 2013
CURRENTLY...
BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40KTS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO PRODUCED SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AT KLXV AROUND 19Z/20Z. ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE ARE LOW
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP RUNS KEEP WINDS AT 10-15KTS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AROUND THE LEADVILLE AREA AND THE PIKE`S PEAK REGION. I HAVE
INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS TO MATCH EC/MET/MAV
GUIDANCE. VALLEY AND LOCATIONS ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE A CLEAR/COLD
NIGHT.
THURSDAY...
AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
700MB TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO 2-4C PER THE 18Z NAM12. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE COME MORE ZONAL/WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL LOCATIONS MIXING FAIRLY WELL...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. -PC
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST WED NOV 6 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON FRI...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS COLORADO AND PRODUCING GUSTY CONDITIONS FOR THE
MTS AND AT TIMES FOR THE E PLAINS. THE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPS WARM NICELY...WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S FOR THE PLAINS...50S AND 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. AS
THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT WILL PUSH
COLD AIR DOWN ACROSS WY AND INTO CO. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE PALMER DVD AND MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE FRI EVE...WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPS THEN EXPECTED FOR SAT. AT THIS TIME...NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH MAX TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH WILL BE RIGHT AT SEASONAL NORMS.
WEDNESDAY...GFS AND EC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
BREAK DOWN STARTING LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
MT AND WY ON WED AND BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN TO THE CWA ON
WED. BEING SO FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING...BUT
DECIDED TO DROP MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 F AND INTRODUCED SOME ISOLATED
POPS. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST WED NOV 6 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES..KALS...KCOS...AND KPUB. WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHOULD CALM
DOWN BY 02Z TONIGHT AND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY. -PC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1001 AM MST WED NOV 6 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER
THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WYOMING. SATELLITE AND
WEB CAMS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD MOISTURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. RADAR AND CAMS INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
DIVIDE...MAINLY WEST FACING SLOPES...AND OVER THE GORE AND PARK
RANGES OF WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY. SHOWERS BEING GENERATED BY THE
COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHICS AND ASCENT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE
MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO ASCENT WEAKENS AND BECOMES SUBSIDENT AS
JET MAX MOVES OUT OF WYOMING. THUS SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN THE
SHOWERS. LATEST RAP GENERATES SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND QPF ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF DESCENT EXPECTED. WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT GUSTY IN
AND NEAR FOOTHILLS AS GRADIENT BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND TROUGH ACROSS PLAINS INCREASES A BIT. 1500 METER
GRADIENT FROM GJT TO DEN HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING...CURRENTLY
AT 7.57 MB. BY AFTERNOON...COMBINATION OF MIXING AND INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DID UPDATE
FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE DIVIDE. ALSO ADDED SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION. ALSO ADDED A BIT MORE WIND IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF FORECAST LOOK OKAY FOR NOW.
.AVIATION...WINDS BEGINNING TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AS SHOWING BY
RECENT GUSTY WINDS AT KBJC. DID UPDATE FOR SOME GUSTS
THERE...THOUGH WINDS HAVE RECENTLY DECREASED. BY 19Z WINDS TO
BECOME MORE NORTHWEST AS MIXING CONTINUES. CURRENT GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE FOR KDEN AND KAPA...WITH GUSTS TO
30 KTS AT KBJC. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF CURRENT TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM MST WED NOV 6 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DRY THE AIR ON
THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS
MORNING...LIKELY DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVES. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS.
THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP INCREASE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL END THIS EVENING AS DRIER
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND ALLOW
FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLINGS. LOWS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING
AGAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHERE THE WIND IS NOT BLOWING.
LONG TERM...SWIFT NEARLY ZONAL JET FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK MEANS TRANQUIL MID-AUTUMN
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SEE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
FRIDAY-TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. ONLY DISRUPTION IN THE TRANQUIL
PICTURE OCCURS FRIDAY WHEN THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CAUSES THE NOSE OF A 100+ KNOT JET TO DIP SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING FRIDAY MORNING. NAM DERIVED CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A
STEADY INCREASE IN THE CROSS MOUNTAIN WIND COMPONENT THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A 73KT SPEED MAXIMA ABOVE THE CREST OF THE FRONT RANGE
(ABOUT 650 MBS) AS OF 15Z/FRIDAY. MODEL SHOWS SOME OF THIS
MOUNTAIN TOP MOMENTUM MIGRATING DOWN THE LEESIDE OF THE FRONT
RANGE FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH 30-40KTS DOWN TO AROUND THE
8500 FT LEVEL. BELOW THAT...WIND SPEEDS NO WHERE AS STRONG
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. NOT READY TO ISSUE ANY HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND JET STREAM A BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH EACH RUN CYCLE. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG/GUSTY WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN
THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY FOR THE FRONT
RANGE AND ITS FOOTHILLS. WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY WITH
ADIABATIC WARMING AND SUNDAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOK NEARLY AS
WARM AS SUNDAY WITH FURTHER BUILDING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
COLORADO. BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS HINTING AT A CHANGE TO
COOLER/WETTER WEATHER WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WILL TREND TOWARD THAT DIRECTION STARTING LATE ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES ACROSS THE DENVER AREA. NORMAL
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS AT KDEN AND KAPA WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AROUND 17Z. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AT KBJC...WEST WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...D-L
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
257 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
The 20Z water vapor imagery shows a upper level trough progressing
east through the plains into the upper Midwest and MS river valley.
Weak ridging was noted over the inter-mountain west with another
shortwave trough approaching the pacific northwest coast. At the
surface, a cool and much dryer ridge of high pressure has settled
into the central plains.
For tonight and Thursday, dry and cool weather is expected to
persist as the surface ridge keeps dry air over the forecast area.
Additionally there is no obvious wave within the northwest flow
aloft to suggest any forcing for precip. The low level saturation
that has allowed the STRATOCU deck to linger over eastern KS through
the afternoon is expected to eventually mix out and/or move east.
Latest visible satellite seems to support the RAP and HRRR PROGS of
the low level saturation dissipating. So think tonight will
eventually become mostly clear. Am a little concerned about the
formation of fog overnight since the boundary layer moisture has not
mixed out and cross over temps are 3 to 5 degrees above the forecast
min temps. The one thing against a good radiational fog is that the
models keep the center of the surface ridge over western KS and the
winds never go calm with lower dewpoint temps advecting in from the
west through the night. Think this may be enough to limit any fog
development to the favored low spots near bodies of water where the
winds are most likely to be light and variable. Thursday should be
sunny with a dry northwest flow aloft and the surface ridge still
over eastern KS. Because of this there does not look to be a lot of
low level warm air advection tomorrow so highs may struggle to warm
into the mid 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
Winds and cloud cover should steadily increase late Thursday night
into Friday on the south end of a rather potent wave moving east
through the Dakotas. Clouds will be of the high variety with still
dry low to mid levels, limiting any precipitation chances. Specifics
on how fast and thick the clouds are Tuesday night will play a large
role in how cool temps will fall as southwest winds ramp up just off
the surface through the night. Expect winds and clouds to hold off
the longest in the south and east for the coolest temps there. A
quite windy Friday remains to be expected, though the strongest
winds may be a bit farther east, with near advisory levels possible
for much of the area. Overnight and early day warm air advection
should push temps well into the 60s. Elevated fire danger is still
anticipated in the warm, dry, and windy boundary layer. The modified
Pacific cold front with the Dakotas wave sinks in late Friday night
into Saturday and should bring little cooling and much lighter
winds.
Zonal flow aloft becomes more northwesterly by Monday as an upper
trof off the west coast deepens. Modest moisture return in
isentropic lift may still be enough for a few showers Monday night
into Tuesday. The main periods of question are for Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are in rather strong agreement
with a shortwave diving south into the Northern Plains and western
Great Lakes Tuesday and on southeast through the mid Mississippi
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. The source region of the airmass
is northern Alaska and Yukon, but does linger for 12-24 hours in
southern Canada before coming into the CONUS, and snowpack in this
area does not appear to be now or look likely to increase much
before its arrival. Still, the operational runs drop 850mb temps
well below 0 C with its passage and suggest one of the coldest days
of the cold season so far. The ensembles show a rather large spread
in temps and height fields however, and this is not unexpected with
this smaller scale wave coming through a somewhat complex pattern.
Will suggest a cooling trend and some chance for liquid
precipitation at this point but confidence is low.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
RAP and HRRR solutions show the low level saturation hanging on
through much of the afternoon. With satellite imagery showing a
decent STRATOCU deck extending upstream into NEB, will hang onto
MVFR CIGS until the late afternoon. Am a little concerned for
some shallow ground fog developing late tonight. The main hiccup
in fog formation is the models indicating a weak surface trough
moving through northeast KS overnight implying some mixing could
occur. But if skies clear out and the boundary layer decouples it
may not matter that a trough propagates through the area.
Therefore think the chances for ground fog within the KS river
valley are high enough to include a mention in the TOP and MHK
terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1135 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2013
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
Quiet weather is expected through tomorrow morning as the mid level
trough axis progresses through the region. Cooler air is working
into the CWA behind the front with temps in mid 30s already in north
central Kansas. Low temperatures this morning will range from the
low to upper 30s after all of the precipitation has exited the
region. Drier mid level air will began to filter in today from the
northwest although lower levels will be slower to dry out. Forecast
soundings show that cold air advection will prevent drying and low
level RH remains high in the form of a stratus deck. Therefore the
only issue today will be how fast the clouds can clear or scatter
out of the area. As of now it appears clearing will begin in north
central Kansas during mid morning. The clearing should reach far
northeast Kansas in the early afternoon hours. Northwest winds will
also decrease from west to east through out the day although the
eastern half of the CWA will remain gusty until around sunset. High
temperatures stay in the upper 40s in the northeast CWA while
southwest portions reach the low 50s. Later tonight high pressure
builds into the central plains leaving skies clear and winds light.
Low temperatures tomorrow morning drop into the upper 20s to low
30s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
Thursday through Sunday night, the mid and upper level flow will
become zonal. An upper level trough will move east across the
northern plains on Friday. The stronger ascent ahead of this wave
will remain well northeast of the CWA along with any precip chances.
Highs Thursday will warm into the mid to upper 50s.
The increasing westerly mid level flow across the central Rockies
will cause a lees surface trough to deepen Friday. The resulting
pressure gradient across central KS will cause southerly winds to
increase to 20 to 30 MPH with some gusts to 40 MPH Friday
afternoon. The southerly winds may reach near wind advisory
criteria across the western CWA Friday afternoon. Given drier
vegetation and gusty southerly winds, there will be a very high
fire danger. The southerly winds will help high temperatures to
warm into the lower to mid 60s.
As the upper level trough moves east across the Great Lakes States
Friday night, a cold front will move southward across the CWA Saturday
morning. The airmass behind the front will only be slightly
cooler. Highs Saturday will reach around 60, with mid to upper 50s
on Sunday.
Monday through Tuesday, the weak cold front will stall out across
central OK and begin to move north as a warm front. Deeper moisture
advection and isentropic lift will cause clouds and a slight chance
for showers Monday night into Tuesday. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 50s on Monday, with lower to mid 50s on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
RAP and HRRR solutions show the low level saturation hanging on
through much of the afternoon. With satellite imagery showing a
decent STRATOCU deck extending upstream into NEB, will hang onto
MVFR CIGS until the late afternoon. Am a little concerned for
some shallow ground fog developing late tonight. The main hiccup
in fog formation is the models indicating a weak surface trough
moving through northeast KS overnight implying some mixing could
occur. But if skies clear out and the boundary layer decouples it
may not matter that a trough propagates through the area.
Therefore think the chances for ground fog within the KS river
valley are high enough to include a mention in the TOP and MHK
terminals.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
401 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN PLAINS. PCPN
ASSOCIATED WITH 800-600 MB FGEN AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF
THE SHRTWV THROUGH CNTRL UPPER MI WAS QUICKLY EXITING THE CWA INTO
FAR ERN UPPER MI. 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -7C(LAKE TEMPS NEAR 8C)
ONLY PROVIDED MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR ANY LAKE EFFECT PCPN WITH
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHRTWV. RADAR INDICATED
ONLY ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES INTO WEST UPPER MI AND S CNTRL LAKE
SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...CAA DROPPING 850/700 MB TEMPS TO -9C/-15C AND
GRADUALLY CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR INCREASE IN LES FOR
WNW FLOW SNOWBELTS. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST NORTH OF
M-28 AND OVER THE EAST FROM MUNISING AND SHINGLETON EASTWARD.
THURSDAY...300-310 LOW LEVEL FLOW LES WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF AS A WEAK 850-700 MB TROUGH BRUSHES
THE ERN LAKE WITH CLIMBING INVERSION HEIGHTS(AN INCREASE IN 850-700
MB MOISTURE AND 700 MB TEMPS TO NEAR -18C). EVEN WITH NMRS
SHSN...EXPECT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEST...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SHORTER FETCH LENGTH AND LESS
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
FOR THU NIGHT WILL INITIALLY SEE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NW WINDS ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA...BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SFC RIDGE MOVES TO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI. 850MB TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY STAY AROUND -8C TO -9C...SO LES IN NORTHWEST WIND
SNOWBELTS IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN UPPER MI WHERE THE
LONGER FETCH AND LONGER LASTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY MINOR...BUT
SHOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NERN CWA WHERE A COUPLE OF INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL BE E OF THE CWA BY 00Z SAT...CONFINING ANY
REMAINING ISOLATED LES TO NEAR WHITEFISH POINT BY FRI EVENING. SOME
PRECIP MAY BE MOVING INTO THE FAR WRN CWA BY 00Z SAT AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT THE 12/06 GFS AND 00Z/06 ECMWF SHOW MOVING FROM ERN
SD AT 00Z SAT TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 12Z SAT THEN TO ONTARIO E OF
LAKE HURON BY 18Z SAT. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER. AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS WHERE THE SFC LOW WILL ORGANIZE...WITH A
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. STILL SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVES /MAINLY THE
WEAKER ONE/ SO CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTER THAT LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED...SINCE MAIN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IS WITH PTYPE AND EXACT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. PTYPES LOOK TO
BE MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE WRN CWA /WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN/ TO MOSTLY
RAIN OVER THE ERN CWA DUE TO WARMER AIR COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.
EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE WARM...THE WARM LAYER
WILL ALSO BE DRY SO WET BULB TEMPS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL BE DONE BY 00Z SUN. THINK
THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN CWA...BUT STILL
FAIRLY UNCERTAIN ON THAT NUMBER.
AFTER THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT...LOW LEVEL AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR LES WILL MOVE IN THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT /MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT SO ENDING TIME IS VERY
UNCERTAIN/. THINK IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK SHOT OF THE BEST
CONDITIONS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SO
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINOR.
SUN THROUGH NEXT WED IS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH DETAILS OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS THE ARRIVAL
OF MUCH COLDER TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS THE COLDER THAN THE GFS IN
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS OF -15C TO -20C OVER THE CWA FROM MON NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WED. THE GFS IS COLD AS WELL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE
ECMWF...SHOWING 850MB TEMPS OF -10C TO -15C FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WED. OF COURSE...LES WOULD OCCUR IN THIS SCENARIO DEPENDING ON
WIND DIRECTION...WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
WOULD ALSO LIKELY OCCUR AT SOME POINT...BUT THIS IS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE RIGHT
NOW...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE FOR LES MON NIGHT
INTO TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
MVFR CIGSS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
20Z-23Z...HOLDING OUT LONGEST AT CMX...AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN LAKE HURON WILL QUICKLY EXIT INTO
QUEBEC THIS EVENING...LEAVING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE NATION WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PUSHING A RIDGE OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. LOOK FOR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY TO CROSS ONTARIO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A
TROUGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE LOW DEEPENS OVER
HUDSON BAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED NW WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
GALES OF 35 TO 40KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MOST INTERESTING THING WITH THE WEATHER TO MONITOR TODAY IS THE
SHRINKING OF THE SNOWPACK LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHTS SNOW ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. AS WE GET INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
US THIS SNOW...WE ARE SEEING OUR FLOW ALOFT TURN NW. WITH THE NW
FLOW COMES SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS DROPPING
SOME CLOUD COVER DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. OF MORE
CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SE SODAK. THESE CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY...BUT WITH THEM NOW MOVING OVER THE
SNOWPACK...THE DECREASED MIXING THERE WILL LIKELY MEAN WE DO NOT
COMPLETELY LOSE THEM BEFORE THE SUNSETS...SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE THEM
EXPAND IN ONE FASHION OR ANOTHER TONIGHT. THE HRRR MAY BE A LITTLE
AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT. HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE FOG POTENTIAL SOME TONIGHT
AS MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT REMAINING TONIGHT TO KEEP WINDS
UP AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL BUT CENTRAL MN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS
MORE OF A STRATUS THAN A FOG CONCERN. ONLY LEFT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE SW CWA...MORE OR LESS WHERE THE DEEPER SNOWPACK EXISTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THERE ARE TWO CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE SECOND WILL BE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY A SNOW EVENT.
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GFS 500MB HEIGHTS AND WINDS
SHOWED A TROUGH OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST ON THURSDAY. H850
THETA_E ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AND
TOGETHER WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
PRECIP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STRUGGLE TO SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT BASED ON THE FORCING
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MEASURABLE PRECIP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-94.
THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING CHANCES FOR
SNOW FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY HAVE CHANCE
POPS...BUT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSISTENCY...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES OFF LATE THURSDAY. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES EXPECT THE POPS TO INCREASE ALONG WITH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
TWO ISSUES THIS TAF PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND 5K-7K FT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW MN AND REMNANT IFR CIGS OVER SE SODAK.
FLOW BETWEEN 5K AND 7K FT WILL BRING THOSE CLOUDS SE INTO THE MPX
AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO SRN MN BY TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FAVOR THE IDEA OF THE
RAP...WHICH HAS THE BKN TO OVC 5K-7K FT CLOUDS WORKING ABOUT AS
FAR SW AS THE MN RIVER AND STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR
STRATUS TO FORM...WITH RWF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
THESE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SNOW COVER IN PLACE. SHOULD BE
MAINLY A STRATUS ISSUE TONIGHT...AS GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN 5 KT WNW WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP DENSE
FOG FROM FORMING ANYWHERE IN THE MPX AREA.
KMSP...BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR TAF REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS
CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE FIELD THAT WILL BE HEADING THIS
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN QUESTION WITH THEM IS HOW LONG DO
THEY HANG AROUND. NAM INDICATES THAT ONCE THEY MOVE IN...THEY ARE
WITH US THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF. IF THAT HAPPENS...THEN
STRATUS/FOG WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT. WITH THAT CLOUD
UNCERTAINTY...REMOVED THE MVFR VIS WE HAD GOING THU MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS BCMG S 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
243 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE QUIET/DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. STRATUS HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTN...HOLDING TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S...WHILE TO THE WEST IN INSOLATION...TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 40S. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THURSDAY.
A SUBTLE SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING AS ENERGY
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION...BEHIND THE TROUGH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND SETTLES ON
TO THE PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. OF NOTE IS THAT THE SREF IS INDICATING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE RAP OR OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS ATTM. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN FCST WITH WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT...VERY
LITTLE SNOWPACK ACROSS OUR CWA AND COLD/SUB FREEZING TEMPS FORECAST
FOR LOWS TONIGHT. THIS BEING SAID...IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPS WITH DAYTIME READINGS EDGING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SFC RIDGE IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
IN TERMS OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BASIC ELEMENTS SUCH AS
TEMPERATURES/POPS...THIS 6-DAY PERIOD IS CURRENTLY A SPLIT
DECISION...FEATURING RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE ESPECIALLY REGARDING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MON-WED
TIME FRAME. AT ANY RATE...THE ONLY PERIODS CURRENTLY FEATURING
ONLY SLIGHT...STILL-HIGHLY UNCERTAIN CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE TUESDAY
IN THE EAST/SOUTH AND THEN WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.
GETTING INTO GREATER DETAIL AND STARTING WITH THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...UPPER FORCING REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE LOCALLY AS THE AREA
LIES IN BETWEEN A NORTHEAST CONUS LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. AT THE SURFACE...THE EFFECT OF THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
BE HIGH PLAINS PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH WILL INDUCE A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH MOST AREAS
10+ MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PASSING CLOUDS AND BREEZES SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO SHARPLY...AND KEPT LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
A BLEND OF 12Z MET/MAV GUIDANCE BUT DID NUDGE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST PLACES BETWEEN 32-35 AND SOME
UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY/GREELEY/WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY AREA.
ALTHOUGH AM NOT EXPECTING MAJOR ISSUES WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT THANKS
TO INCREASING BREEZES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR NORTHERN
AREAS WHERE SNOW MELT WILL BE ONGOING BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SKY COVER PERCENTAGES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH...AS AGAIN EXPECT PLENTY OF
PASSING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE MT/WY AREA ON
SUNRISE FRIDAY...ALL THE WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE DAYTIME HOURS CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER BREEZY
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 30
MPH...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 5-10 MPH LIGHTER
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE TROUGH. FORTUNATELY FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...EVEN IN THE WINDIER SOUTHEAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP IN THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE...OR
5-10 PERCENT ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. TEMP-WISE...DESPITE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECT A NICE UPWARD BUMP FROM THURSDAY HIGHS. HAVE AIMED MOST
OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S RANGE...WITH MID 60S MOST
FAVORED IN KS ZONES AND THE DAWSON-FURNAS CORRIDOR IN THE WEST.
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES THIS IS ABOUT A 5-DEGREE UPWARD BUMP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ON FRI NIGHT...A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT NUDGES
INTO THE THE CWA...SIGNALED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A SHIFT TO FAIRLY
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES. AGAIN...SUPPOSE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO
CONTRIBUTION FROM MELTED SNOW...BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE VISIBILITY
PRODUCT FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/SREF ARE OVER-DOING THINGS...AND
WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST FOG-FREE FOR NOW. CHANGED FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS LITTLE WITH MOST PLACES MID-30S.
SATURDAY DAYTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH
GENERALLY SUNNIER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS AS THE PRIMARY UPPER JET CORE AND ASSOCIATED
TRACK OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
U.S./CANADA BORDER. ON SATURDAY...BREEZES WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND
10 MPH FROM THE NORTH...AND THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY AGAIN FOR
SUNDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS...WITH SATURDAY HIGHS RANGING
FROM LOW 50S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH...AND SUNDAY MID-UPPER 50S
AREA-WIDE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS
STEADILY DECREASES ALTHOUGH THAT BEING SAID...NO MAJOR
PRECIPITATION EVENTS APPEAR IN STORE. MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS DRY. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...FLOW
TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. TEMPS ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK. ALTHOUGH THE DEFAULT
MULTI-MODEL BLEND HAS PROVIDED WIDESPREAD 50S FOR HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
PROVIDES A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH...WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COLDER MAINLY IN THE 40S. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS OF SOME LOW
STRATUS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NUISANCE LIGHT DRIZZLE...SO
THIS BEARS WATCHING. GETTING INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOCAL AREA ALONG A TRACK FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS TO EASTERN KS/MO. HOWEVER...THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS CURRENTLY SLATED TO PASS
JUST EAST AND/OR SOUTH OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALLY
LIGHT...NUISANCE PRECIP POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE COULD
OCCUR ALMOST ANYWHERE DURING THIS TIME...STUCK WITH THE
INITIALIZED BLENDED FORECAST FOR NOW...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT RAIN ONLY
IN FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...AND THEN NO MENTION OF
PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMP-WISE TUESDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING HIGHS...AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MID 40S TO MID
50S...WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF CAME IN 5-10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
THIS. FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME...HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
RAIN/SNOW IN ALL AREAS...BUT THIS WAS LARGELY BASED OFF THE 00Z
ECMWF...AND ITS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LATEST RUN HAS COME IN DRY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES THE MAJORITY OF
FORCING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH IT. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL TAKE A COLDER TURN...ITS JUST A MATTER
OF HOW MUCH SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AIMS FOR A MID 30S-LOW 40S
RANGE IN MOST SPOTS...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF IS COLDER WITH MID 30S
MOST ALL PLACES. PLENTY TO SORT OUT HERE IN THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
BORDERLINE IFR TO MVFR CLOUDS WILL DEPART THE TERMINAL IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CLOUDS THEREAFTER WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO REMAIN FROM A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE COAST WILL PRODUCE SOME RAIN OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
THURSDAY CLEARING OUT ALL OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND BRINGING
COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAINTAINING DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A WONDERFUL EARLY NOVEMBER DAY IN THE
CAROLINAS WILL CHANGE TONIGHT AS A HORIZONTALLY-CONVERGENT AND
VERTICALLY-ASCENDING FLOW DEVELOPS NEAR A COASTAL TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS TROUGH...EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GULF STREAM...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT AND MAY
ACTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
MILD ATLANTIC AIR STREAMING UP AND OVER THE WARM FRONT-LIKE BOUNDARY
WILL BE LIFTED ALONG THE 300-305K ISENTROPIC SURFACES...LIKELY
YIELDING AROUND ONE-THIRD INCH OF SHOWERY RAIN FROM MYRTLE BEACH...
SOUTHPORT AND WILMINGTON THROUGH WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN. ONE
OR TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM GEORGETOWN AND
MARION THROUGH DILLON AND LUMBERTON. FARTHER INLAND FOR AREAS WEST
OF FLORENCE...THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED MAY HAVE TROUBLE REACHING
YOU AS VEERING WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB COULD CREATE A WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER BEFORE THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IS ABLE TO PUSH THAT FAR INLAND. I HAVE LOWER RAIN CHANCES
HERE ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
IN TERMS OF MODEL PREFERENCE...THE 12Z GFS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS DO
THE LATEST SEVERAL RUC AND HRRR RUNS. THE 12Z NAM REALLY EMPHASES
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COASTAL TROUGH JUST OFF
THE FLORIDA COAST. WHILE SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THERE A WEAK LOW
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF JAX...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE TOO BULLISH
CLOSING THIS FEATURE OFF ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE NAM
IS ALSO THE FARTHEST WEST WITH ITS QPF MAX COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE.
CLOUDS SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH
FORECAST LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER
50S INLAND. KEEP IN MIND OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR LOWS HAVE
FALLEN TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S THIS LATE IN THE YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGH RIGHT ALONG THE CAPE
FEAR COAST THURS MORNING WILL OPEN UP AND DISSIPATE AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURS. THE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL PUMP A GOOD DEAL OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THURS. THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL RUN
NORTH FROM THE BRUNSWICK AND CAPE FEAR COAST UP THROUGH NORTH
CAROLINA. THE NAM SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH AND PUSHES IT INLAND
FURTHER SO MAY KEEP POPS SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND FOR NOW. THIS AXIS
OF GREATEST PCP THURS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST AND OFF SHORE BY
THURS AFTN AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOSES SOME OF ITS MOISTURE AS IT MOVES OVER THE
APPALACHIANS THURS MORNING BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT THURS AFTN. AS MENTIONED...LOOKS
LIKE GREATEST PCP WILL COME EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST...BUT EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF
FRONT THROUGH LATE THURS AFTN.
DEEP COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THURS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. 850 TEMPS BEGIN TO
PLUMMET THURS AFTN DROPPING FROM AROUND 13C DOWN TO 3C TO 4C BY
FRI MORNING. PCP WATER VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL DROP OUT TO A QUARTER OF INCH ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO
THE 40S FRI NIGHT IN CAA BEHIND FRONT. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE COOLER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY
BUT THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
THROUGH FRI EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI WILL MAKE IT TO AROUND 60
IN CONTINUED CAA UNDER BRIGHT FALL SUNSHINE. BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH FRI EVENING AS WINDS DROP
OFF AND CLEAR SKIES EXIST. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S MOST
PLACES FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF FLAT 5H FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING ACROSS THE EAST.
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT ALLOW REINFORCING AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ADVECT WEST
TO EAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER
THAN A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FEATURES TO DISCUSS DURING NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY CLEAR (ALTHOUGH SOME
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT)...AND
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SATURDAY WHEN
HIGHS WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...BUT SUN-WED WILL FEATURE
HIGHS APPROACHING 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD /WED NIGHT/ AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
MUCH COOLER AIR...BUT ATTM LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ALSO BE DRY. THUS...NO
PRECIP FOR THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR INCREASING ALTOCUMULUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. BY LATE THIS EVENING...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTRODUCING IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY
INCREASING COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE NAM
MODEL MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS COULD REMAIN
IN THE 8-10 KNOT RANGE. THURSDAY...POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LATE AS A
SURFACE LOW RIDES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY...DUE TO THE LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC (JUST SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND) HAS MAINTAINED A HEALTHY
NORTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE
HIGH IS BREAKING DOWN WHICH HAS CUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC ALMOST IN HALF OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A COASTAL TROUGH
CURRENTLY LINED UP NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM FROM THE
OUTER BANKS TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SHOULD APPROACH THE COAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A ZONE OF ENHANCED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST BEHIND OF (EAST OF) TROUGH SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN 4-6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR AREA WATERS TONIGHT...
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD VEER
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10-15 KNOTS EXCEPT
5 KNOTS STRONGER FOR AREAS THAT ACTUALLY GET INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
INLAND...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY UP TO 15 KTS TO START THE DAY ON
THURS. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL KEEP SEAS AROUND 3 TO 6 FT
INITIALLY BUT DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS WINDS VEER AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURS AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THURS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO WEST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO
NORTH BEHIND FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS THURS NIGHT. PLENTY
OF COOL AND DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE A WELL MIXED MARINE ENVIRONMENT
AND EXPECT STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING IN DEEPER CAA. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN SEAS UP TO 4 TO 7 FT IN OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS ALONE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SCA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT SEAS WILL SHOOT
UP ALSO.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AND VEER TO
NORTHEAST AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINAS. THE DECREASE IN SPEED AND VEERING OF WINDS LATER FRI
AND FRI NIGHT WILL KNOCK SEAS BACK DOWN TO 2 TO 4 FT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF HIGH PRESSURES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE EXTENDED...AND WINDS BEGIN THE PERIOD
FROM THE NE AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE BACKING SLOWLY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW. AS THIS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY...IT DRIVES A DRY COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AND
TURNING BACK TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE NE WINDS PERSIST
MONDAY...WHILE ONLY SLOWLY EASING. SEAS WILL BE WIND-DRIVEN DURING
THE PERIOD...BUT THANKS TO THE LOW SPEEDS...AMPLITUDES WILL BE 1-3
FT EACH DAY...WITH A BRIEF INCREASE TO 2-4 FT LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY WITH THE FROPA.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...TRA/DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1230 PM EST WED NOV 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WARM INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...TWEAKED INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
UP A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MID 70S...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES NEEDED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SITS JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...WHILE AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE
NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA COAST. A LONG EASTERLY FETCH AT THE SURFACE
CROSSES OVER A THOUSAND MILES OF WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WATER BEFORE
COMING ONSHORE INTO THE CAROLINAS. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST
7500 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING AREAS OF EXTENSIVE
ALTOCUMULUS...SOME OF WHICH ARE PRODUCING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY
AND AN INCREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL NOTED. FARTHER INLAND THERE
SHOULD BE ABOUT A 50/50 MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY. WITH THE
OVERALL AIRMASS QUITE MILD FOR THIS DATE HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 70S DESPITE THE CLOUDS...A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR TONIGHT I HAVE MADE SOME UPWARD CHANGES TO POPS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE CAPE FEAR REGION WHERE THE LATEST HRRR AND 06Z GFS SHOW A
CONCENTRATED "STREAMER" OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF STREAM SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR. THIS IS ACTUALLY
A FAIRLY TYPICAL SCENARIO IN WEAKLY FORCED VEERING WIND
SITUATIONS...AND ASSUMING 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL
I PLAN TO INCREASE POPS IN THE WILMINGTON AREA OVER 50 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT. FARTHER INLAND CURRENTLY POPS FOR TONIGHT ARE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT REGION AS IT APPEARS THE LIMITED DEPTH OF MOISTURE MAY NOT
MAKE IT TOO FAR INLAND BEFORE THE 850-700 MB FLOW ATTAINS A BIT OF
WESTERLY COMPONENT...SHUTTING DOWN ANY ATLANTIC INFLOW. 12Z MODELS
SHOULD HELP REFINE THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL BRING BELOW CLIMO TEMPS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. FRONT ITSELF MAY PASS DRY WITH THE BEST PRECIP
CHANCES BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
COAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES THE
CAROLINAS THE 5H TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND THE
ORIENTATION OF THE 5H RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A
SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE TAP. ADDITIONALLY THE DYNAMICS ARE
DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND BAGGINESS IN THE GRADIENT OFF
THE COAST POINTS TO DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW ON THE TAIL END OF THE
TROUGH...FURTHER LIMITING THE FRONTS ABILITY TO PRODUCE PRECIP.
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POP INLAND FOR FIRST HALF OF THU IS
REASONABLE BUT WILL BUMP UP POP TO CHC ALONG THE COAST FOR FIRST
PART OF THU.
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT THU
NIGHT INTO FRI. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP UNDER 0.25 INCH BY
FRI MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 0.30 INCH THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES COLD
ADVECTION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO. SOME AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
AROUND 60 FRI WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 FRI NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF TIGHT GRADIENT AND MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
COULD MAKE FRI A BREEZY DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS START TO WEAKEN
FRI NIGHT BUT IT MAY BE A CASE OF TOO LITTLE TOO LATE AS FAR AS
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS CONCERNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...FLAT MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH COLDEST AIR REMAINING TRAPPED WELL TO
THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SAT WILL BE REINFORCED BY SECOND
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT EARLY SUN. FRONT PASSES
DRY WITH NEXT TO NO COLD AIR...THE ONLY THING SIGNIFYING ITS PASSAGE
WILL BE WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWEST. DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CLOUD COVER MAY START TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST SPREADS
EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
CAROLINAS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SAT WHEN TEMPERATURES MAY RUN A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LOOK FOR INCREASING ALTOCUMULUS CEILINGS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL IS ADVERTISING
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH. BY LATE THIS EVENING...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTRODUCING IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES CAUSED BY
INCREASING COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE NAM
MODEL MAY BE A BIT EARLY...BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS COULD REMAIN
IN THE 8-10 KNOT RANGE. THURSDAY...POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS LATE AS A
SURFACE LOW RIDES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY...DUE TO THE LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD
FRONT. VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE FOR THE SC WATERS AS THE WINDS/SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 930 AM FOLLOWS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR 6-7 FOOT SEAS MAINLY AT THE
OUTER MARGIN OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND BEYOND 5-10
MILES FROM SHORE ACROSS THE NC WATERS. THE CULPRIT IS A 1500+ MILE
EASTERLY FETCH ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRODUCED BY 1035
MB HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND CANADA. AS THIS HIGH WEAKENS
AND THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THE FETCH SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CHANGES WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE WERE GENERALLY MINOR...LIMITED TO
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND RUC/HRRR
PROGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY BECOME WESTERLY AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS. STRENGTH OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL AFTER
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATER THU. PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE 20 TO
25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KT. GIVEN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY
AND LIMITED FETCH CONFIDENCE IN SEAS WITHIN 20 NM REACHING 6 FT FOR
ALL ZONES IS LOW...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO BE ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SCA THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING. WIND SPEEDS DECREASE LATE FRI
AND FRI NIGHT AND VEER TO NORTHEAST AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT EARLY THU WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI. THE DECREASE
IN SPEED AND VEERING OF WINDS LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT WILL KNOCK
SEAS BACK TO 3 TO 5 FT FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD...BROKEN BY PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DECREASING SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS AND THEN DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH SAT NIGHT.
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT LATE SAT NIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE MORE OF A WIND
SHIFT THAN A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS GRADIENT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DEFINED
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BUILDS IN. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND
10 KT ON SAT TO 10 TO 15 KT FOR SUN. SEAS WILL VARY FROM AROUND 2 FT
TO 2 TO 3 FT.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...43/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BECOME MORE CUMULIFORM AND IS MOVING MORE
RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS RAP GUIDANCE. AS A
RESULT...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS WITH CLEARING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE
MADE A SMALL DENT IN TEMPERATURES...SO DECREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO IN PLACES. REST OF THE FORECAST OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
DRIFT ACROSS ND WITHIN A MORE DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THERE IS AN AREA
OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND INTO NORTHWEST MN THAT
IS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. RAP 850 TO 700 HPA RH
HANDLES THIS WELL AND SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. FOR
THIS...INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT MORE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS IMPACTS TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR NOW MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CIGS IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE MAX TEMP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED WITH FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH ONLY MID-UPPER CLOUDS
RESULTING FROM THESE UPPER WAVES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST...AND
WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPORTANCE ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE CLOUDS...ALSO THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURE TO DROP TO NEAR THE COLDER GUIDANCE (MUCH LIKE WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE EJECTING FROM THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW WITH REGARDS TO DETAILS ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE THIS WAVE. THE MAIN SIGNAL THAT THE MODELS ARE GIVING IS THAT
THERE MAY BE TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE
TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY CAUSING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS
IN THE TIME FRAME TO BRING DOWN A WEAK WAVE WITH CHC POPS UNDER NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD 1040MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ON MON/TUES WILL ESCORT DOWN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOW COLD DEPENDS ON TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WHERE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHEAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD
POOL IN MANITOBA/QUEBEC AND DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND REMAINS COOL BUT NOT AS COLD FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE AND THIN REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR SC DECK OVER NE CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS SOUTHWARD AND HAVE LEFT OUT
OF THE BJI TAF BUT MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED. REMAINDER OF THE AREA
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1007 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AS MAIN
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
DRIFT ACROSS ND WITHIN A MORE DISORGANIZED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT THERE IS AN AREA
OF MID CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ND AND INTO NORTHWEST MN THAT
IS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. RAP 850 TO 700 HPA RH
HANDLES THIS WELL AND SUGGESTS CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TOGETHER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. FOR
THIS...INCREASED SKY COVER A BIT MORE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS IMPACTS TEMPERATURES...BUT FOR NOW MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE BEST PERFORMING BIAS CORRECTED NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TODAY AS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL
CIGS IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT
THE MAX TEMP FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED WITH FAST MOVING WEAK UPPER WAVES.
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH ONLY MID-UPPER CLOUDS
RESULTING FROM THESE UPPER WAVES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY TO FORECAST...AND
WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPORTANCE ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY BE CLOUDS...ALSO THINK
THAT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF CLEAR SKIES. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE
TEMPERATURE TO DROP TO NEAR THE COLDER GUIDANCE (MUCH LIKE WHAT IS
CURRENTLY OCCURRING).
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE EJECTING FROM THE PAC NW. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL LOW WITH REGARDS TO DETAILS ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE THIS WAVE. THE MAIN SIGNAL THAT THE MODELS ARE GIVING IS THAT
THERE MAY BE TWO UPPER WAVES...ONE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...AND
ANOTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THESE
TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY CAUSING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHER END CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN OR SNOW POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS
IN THE TIME FRAME TO BRING DOWN A WEAK WAVE WITH CHC POPS UNDER NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD 1040MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE
ON MON/TUES WILL ESCORT DOWN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HOW COLD DEPENDS ON TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WHERE
GFS IS FARTHER NORTHEAST KEEPING THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE COLD
POOL IN MANITOBA/QUEBEC AND DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND REMAINS COOL BUT NOT AS COLD FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST WED NOV 6 2013
MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON KBJI AS THERE ARE MVFR CIGS MOVING TOWARD THIS AREA FROM THE
NORTH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL JUST MISS THIS
SITE...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROGERS
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/JK
AVIATION...TG