Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/05/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
853 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH UVV INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT OUT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE
ECHOES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD SEE THEM INCREASING
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EL PASO COUNTY INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
UPDATED TO TAPER BACK POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
WITH POPS RAMPING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRERNT
OBSERVATIONS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT RAN ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS WINDS
HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE 18Z NAM12 AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS BEGIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS BEGIN AT 00Z AND LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG VORT MAX/BEST LIFT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SAN JUANS NORTHEAST THROUGH
PUEBLO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE BAND
SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST EL PASO AND EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SCATTERED POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW IF 00Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING THROUGH COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THIS WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +1C TO +3C DOWN TO -7C TO -9C
BY TUESDAY EVENING (00Z WED). ANY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE AREA
AFTER THAT TIME WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER MONUMENT HILL IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 AND 12Z EC NOW CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS...
THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE GRADUALLY COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL COMES TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE WETS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT AREAS TUESDAY EVENING IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER
FALLS BEFORE THAT. ALSO...THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS OF LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ALL IS DONE...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST A DUSTING OR LESS. LOOKS DRY FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER. THEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY...MILD AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WINDY AS IT APPEARS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND/OR HIGH FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE DAY APPROACHES. THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT FRIDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
KALS...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELD
UNTIL 02Z TONIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE IN
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AT KALS IS BETWEEN 02-06Z TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AFTER 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.
KCOS...BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 13Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AIR FIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AIR FIELD BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
844 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...MAIN SNOW BANDS STILL OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
SOME SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW INTO JACKSON AND NORTHWEST
LARIMER COUNTIES. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOW AND LACK OF ANY PRECIP
OVER THE PLAINS. LATEST 00Z NAM STILL HAS BIT ZERO SNOWFALL OVER
THE FRONT RANGE DUE TO INVERTED SFC TROF AND DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE RAP DOES HAVE A FEW BANDS OF SNOW WHICH MOVES OVER URBAN
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 09-14Z. WILL LEAVE THE LIKELY POPS FOR NOW AS
STILL DECENT MODERATE ASCENT WITH THE TROF AS IT MOVES ACROSS
LATER TNT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
.AVIATION...DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE IN PLACE WITH NW WINDS AT BJC
AND S-SW WINDS AT DENVER. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH
LATE EVENING AND STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW STILL
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z BUT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY AN INCH OR LESS WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CLEARING WITH SHOWERS ENDING AFTER 18Z
WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN BEHIND THE TROF AXIS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...UPDATED FORECAST FOR A BIT SLOWER TIMING WITH
INCOMING SNOW. RADAR SHOWING SNOW BEGINNING OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER IN OUR CWA
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW IS
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND NOT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH
SNOW IN ZONE 34 FOR THIS EVENING. A BIT MORE DELAY OVER THE PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME BANDED SNOW
MAY BEGIN TO SPILL OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE LATER EVENING
HOURS.
AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE IN PLACE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DEN
AND APA AND WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHWEST AT BJC. SURFACE TROF
SHOULD SHIFT EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AT ALL TERMINALS. GENERALLY HAVE DELAYED SNOW
DEVELOPMENT. STILL NOT A GREAT SETUP FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH
N-NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW BUT THERE WILL BE ASCENT ALOFT WHICH MAY HELP.
OVERALL SNOWFALL AT TERMINALS AROUND AN INCH. IF BANDED SNOWFALL
SET UPS THEN AMOUNTS COULD BE AN ADDITIONAL INCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO. MOISTURE HAS
BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS COLORADO MOUNTAINS...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION OVER WEST SLOPLE OF COLORADO. MODELS SHOW TROUGH TO
BEGIN MOVING EAST TOWARD COLORADO BY THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS
ACROSS UTAH AND ARIZONA BY 06Z THEN ALONG THE COLORADO UTAH BORDER
BY 12Z. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING AND BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE
MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL QG ASCENT INCREASES AND COLDER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO FAVOR ZONES 31 AND
33...THOUGH INCREASING LIFT WILL HELP WITH SNOWFALL FOR ZONE 34.
IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE IN THE VICINITY WHICH COULD
PRODUCE CSI BANDED PRECIPITATION. CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS STILL LOOKING REASONABLE. THOUGH THE STEADIER
SNOWFALL MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT
TIMING OF 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LIFT. AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE
HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE SNOW BANDS DEVELOP. ALONG FOOTHILLS...DOES
NOT APPEAR MUCH SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW BANDS... THERE COULD BE A QUICK ONE OR TWO INCHES. SEEMS THAT
ZONE 35 MAY BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR THE BANDS...AND WILL UP
POPS THERE OVERNIGHT. ACROSS PLAINS...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
BECOMING A BIT MORE EASTERLY AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN TROUGH. MAIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOESN`T INCREASE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
AND WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY THERE. CLOSER TO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR...MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE SNOW
POTENTIAL...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BANDED CSI...WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST DURING
THE MORNING. THOUGH MOUNTAIN OROGRAPHICS WILL BE
IMPROVING...STABILITY WILL BE INCREASING WITH DECREASING LIFT.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL BE DURING
THE MORNING. COULD BE ANOTHER 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY NOON. WILL
CONTINUE THE MOUNTAIN ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. ACROSS THE PLAINS...
MODELS SHOW AN LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SNOW CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR AWAY
FROM THE LEE TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...SNOW CHANCES TO DECREASE AS
TROUGH AND LIFT MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 2
INCHES FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ADJACENT PLAINS
AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FAR NORTHEAST CORNER.
LONG TERM...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ENDING BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN BEHIND SHORT WAVE. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS WINDS DECREASE.
BY WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THOUGH AS
MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND AIRMASS IN QUITE STABLE. IN
FACT...THE INCREASING STABILITY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MOUNTAIN WAVE SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS A BIT
IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CROSS MOUNTAIN
FLOW IS NEAR 35 KTS SO AT THIS TIME EXPECT MAX WIND GUSTS TO
REMAIN UNDER ANY HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS GIVEN A MIX OF SUN AND
WAVE CLOUDS.
ON THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN FAST MOVING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW...BUT LIGHT AMOUNTS...TO THE
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN AND NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE.
AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FLAT RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AVERAGE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS DENVER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS. SOME STRATOCUMULUS STILL FLOATING AROUND WITH CEILINGS
AROUND 6500 FEET AGL. CEILINGS TO BEGIN LOWERING AGAIN AFTER 03Z
AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SURFACE FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AIRPORTS AFTER 06Z WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. SHOULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND AT
THAT TIME AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z
AS SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z
THOUGH CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000 FEET AGL POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL STILL EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF DENVER. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL REACHING THE AREA AIRPORTS.
AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4
INCHES IF A HEAVIER SNOW BAND AFFECTS THE AREA.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ048-050-
051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM....BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RJK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
605 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 600 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
UPDATED TO TAPER BACK POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
WITH POPS RAMPING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRERNT
OBSERVATIONS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT RAN ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS WINDS
HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE 18Z NAM12 AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS BEGIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS BEGIN AT 00Z AND LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG VORT MAX/BEST LIFT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SAN JUANS NORTHEAST THROUGH
PUEBLO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE BAND
SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST EL PASO AND EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SCATTERED POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW IF 00Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING THROUGH COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THIS WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +1C TO +3C DOWN TO -7C TO -9C
BY TUESDAY EVENING (00Z WED). ANY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE AREA
AFTER THAT TIME WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER MONUMENT HILL IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 AND 12Z EC NOW CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS...
THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE GRADUALLY COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL COMES TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE WETS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT AREAS TUESDAY EVENING IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER
FALLS BEFORE THAT. ALSO...THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS OF LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ALL IS DONE...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST A DUSTING OR LESS. LOOKS DRY FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER. THEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY...MILD AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WINDY AS IT APPEARS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND/OR HIGH FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE DAY APPROACHES. THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT FRIDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
KALS...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELD
UNTIL 02Z TONIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE IN
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AT KALS IS BETWEEN 02-06Z TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AFTER 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.
KCOS...BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 13Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AIR FIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AIR FIELD BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION SEEN
WITH THESE. OLD FORECAST FAVORED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THIS
LOOKS RIGHT BUT I DID RAISE THE POPS AS THE COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER THAT MAKES IT ONTO THE
PLAINS...ADDED SOME LOW POPS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A QUICK POP OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVER WYOMING WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MORE NORTHERN DIRECTION ON OUR
PLAINS...LEAVING THE DENVER AREA IN A MESS. SUSPECT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONE WILL GET WIPED OUT BY A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS THAT
SWING AROUND TO EAST AGAIN PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT IT COULD JUST BE
STRENGTHENED AS NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND CHEYENNE STILL WRAP AROUND
AND BECOME E OR NE INTO DENVER. IN ANY EVENT THE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...I BLENDED IN THE LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS A BIT STRONGER. GUIDANCE WAS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH LOOKS CORRECT GIVEN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S UPSTREAM.
FOR MONDAY THE IMPORTANT WORD IS DRY. THE INCOMING AIR IS PRETTY
DRY...AND LIFT IS INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ONLY SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL
ALSO BE RECYCLING DRY AIR TO BEGIN WITH. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AGAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INCREASING WITH TIME...BUT ALL
THIS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SLOW TO DEVELOP. I KEPT SOME LOW POPS
UP AROUND FORT COLLINS IN CASE THE JET IS SAGGING SOUTH QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO GET THEM IN A BAND...BUT DROPPED THE REST OF THE POPS ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...COMPONENTS WILL COME TOGETHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
UPWARD QG LIFT WILL INCREASING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST TUESDAY. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE DECREASED QPF AMOUNTS
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL. HAVE REFLECTED THESE TRENDS IN
THE GRIDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BARELY LOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY MORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE INTO THE EVENING TO LOWER TO THE PLAINS...SO
EXPECT A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...EXPECT UP
TO 2 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE METRO AREAS WITH UP TO 4 OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE FOUND. A SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH IS STILL BEING PROGGED BY THE MODELS...WHICH NEVER
BODES WELL FOR THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS. THE WILD CARD HOWEVER
IS WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BANDING WHICH COULD
PUT DOWN MUCH MORE AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ENERGY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY TO
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THIS EVENING AND MAY DISRUPT THE CURRENT WIND
PATTERN...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST REINFORCE THE EXISTING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DENVER CYCLONE CAUSING LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD LOWER ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
ACTIVE FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS NRN UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
INTO NE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRAGGING OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST UTAH CORNER...ANY PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW...BUT
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS) WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FRONT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AFTER THE
PASSAGE. USED THE TRENDS OFFERED IN THE RAP MODEL TO POPULATE THE
GRIDDED POP FIELDS. PRECEDING THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES WELL MIXED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
WITH DESERT VALLEYS REACHING THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. A SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FROM RANGELY EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM CRAIG
TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
I70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING AND MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PCPN
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE GRAND MESA TO CRESTED BUTTE. ESSENTIALLY
A WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED
ACROSS WRN WY...CENTRAL UT DOWN INTO NV. THE NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THE FRONT SO WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. 06Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT
WETTER THAN THE 00Z RUN BUT THE MAIN GIST REMAINS THE SAME. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MANY AREAS SEEING BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ENTERING
OUR CWA BY NOON WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALSO BRUSHES OUR EXTREME
SRN ZONES. KEPT POPS DOWN SOUTH WITH VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THAT AREA WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIP
ASSOD WITH FROPA UP N THIS AFTN. BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL
HAVE REACHED THE BOOKCLIFFS AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS VALUES WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FLATTOPS
AND PARK/GORE RANGES. CURRENT THINKING IS A FEW INCHES AT BEST
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ABSOLUTELY NO
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SO DROPPED POPS IN FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY
THOUGH DID KEEP MINIMAL CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS STRAY
SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...H7 TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM -1C DOWN SOUTH TO -11C UP NORTH WITH MOST...IF NOT ALL...
VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A RATHER MODEST 80 JET STREAK WILL MOVE
OVER THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED FRONT AND AS IT DOES...SOME
MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AS INDICATED BY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MANY
AREAS INCLUDING VALLEY LOCATIONS. TOYED WITH ISSUING WINTER STORM
WATCHES WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE BUT WITH CONFIDENCE JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...OPTED FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN FOR DAY SHIFT BEFORE
PULLING ANY TRIGGERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
STRONG SHRTWV WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CLIMB TO OVER 3 G/KG AND
TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE -10 TO -15 C RANGE AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AGGRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SETUP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY
ZONES. SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO VALLEY FLOORS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWN INTO THE GRAND VALLEY BETWEEN 3 AM AND
9 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MOUNTAIN ZONES LEANING TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...DROPPING AS WE WORK SOUTH. VALLEYS
WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SETTING UP ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE EAST TO VAIL. HAVE RAMPED
POPS UP AND ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE FORECAST AREA DRIVES INTO DRY
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS EVENING WILL BRING A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH LOWER CIGS AS THIS FRONT IMPACTS
KCAG...KDHN AND KSBS. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A WIND SHIFT...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST SOUTH OF LINE FROM KCNY-KGJT-KGUC.
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
SURFACE WINDS 26025G35KT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1002 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY T/TD
AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/SAT/MOD DATA AND TRENDS.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND EXTENDED HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED IN SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HRRR STILL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON SO KEPT
THIS MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM W TO E BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH PRES SYSTEM BUILDING IN
FROM THE W. WHAT WILL BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IS A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND
LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-8C. INLAND...WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS SHOULD
TAKE PLACE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH INLAND LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE MORE THAN THE
COAST. LOWS OF 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S IN MOST OF NYC.
IT WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE AND TEMPS
SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE FREEZING MARK BY LATE EVE. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR URBAN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET ENDED. FROST IS UNLIKELY DUE TO WINDS
AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS.
SUNNY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ON MON AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE A GRADUALLY
LIFTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE
WITH A WARMING TREND OVERALL TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS MOVING
TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER DRY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THEREAFTER FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING
OUT TOWARDS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AN OSCILLATING TREND TO
ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHETHER OR NOT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS WILL DETERMINE THE LONGEVITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
LINGERING PRECIP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES GOING INTO
FRIDAY. A SCENARIO WITH LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENABLE
FASTER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH PATCHY HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS 2-3 KFT ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH BKN 4-6
KFT CLOUDS SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR TONIGHT.
GUSTY N WINDS AT AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KTS. GUSTS MAY BE LOST AT
TIMES IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITING MIXING.
GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON THROUGH WED...PATCHY MORNING FOG TUE AND WED...OTHERWISE VFR.
.THU...LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST. FOR ALL
WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE HIGH
BUILDS.
BY MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTH...AND NORTH
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS THEY LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...STILL EXPECT SEAS AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE EASTERN WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR
THESE EASTERN WATERS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH BY MID WEEK.
SPEEDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALL
WATERS THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
AS FOR OCEAN SEA FORECASTS...USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LATEST WAVE WATCH III DATA. SEAS BASED ON LOCAL WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED CLIMATOLOGY WAS USED FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY N
WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SOME THIS AFTN BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THIS EVE.
ADDITIONALLY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN JUST
ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTN. SINCE GUSTY N WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
THIS AFTN...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WED. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE THU NIGHT. GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF PRECIP SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR CSTL FLOODING BENCHMARKS DURING
THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AT LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE NE ON MON THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WILL CONTINUE.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE MORNING TIDE CYCLE IS THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ009>011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ071-078>081.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ074-177-179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
813 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION AT THE COAST
THROUGH WED MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK...
HIGH TIDE OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR WILL LIKELY BRING EROSION TO AREA
BEACHES. WIND TENDENCY IS A MORE DIRECT ONSHORE TRAJECTORY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING AND SURFZONE ACTIVITY IS ALSO
HIGHER.
SO CHANGE IN FORECAST WITH EXPECTED SECONDARY WIND INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY REQUIRING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY WILL BRING
BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE COAST AND SOME DEGREE INLAND
OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY (PREVIOUS DISC)...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROF NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CREATE A
TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS INDICATING
SOLID 25KT WINDS THRU 5KFT WELL INTO THE ATLC AND UP THE ERN
SEABOARD TO THE NC OUTER BANKS. WINDS APPROACHING 30KTS IN AREAS N
OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND S OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
WILL RETOOL THE FCST TO UPGRADE AND EMPHASIZE OVERALL WIND/HIGH SURF
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE TIGHT PGRAD WILL MAINTAIN
STEADY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE AIRMASS WELL
MIXED. SFC FRICTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR
AFT SUNSET...COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE AFT SUNRISE TUE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC...FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE E
AND SHUNTING ANY WIND/WAVE ENERGY DIRECTLY ONSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 05/15Z...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD -SHRAS. CSTL SITES OCNL
E/NE SFC WND G22-25KTS...ALL SITES PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL050-060
WITH BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLD SHRA. AFT 05/15Z...E/NE SFC WND
G23-28KTS...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING COMMENCES AT 10 PM...
WINDY CONDITIONS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT BUOY AND COASTAL MEASURING
SITES WITH GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ONLY A SLOW
ABATEMENT IN WINDS LATE TUESDAY AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
ST. LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60
NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
JP/DKW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
..WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION
EARLY/MID WEEK ALONG THE COAST...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...TWO UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS...ONE PUSHING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES AND ONE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND...WILL INTERACT
WITH INDEPENDENT UPR LVL ANTICYCLONES OVER MEXICO AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO PUT A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE H30-H20 JET STREAM ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN THAT WILL
PUSH THE STRONG HI PRES EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX TO HUDSON BAY
INTO THE ERN SEABOARD.
WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL VEER TO THE E/NE AND FRESHEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EWD. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST LOW LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA THAT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE
DRY/STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLO H85. NEAR AVG MIN TEMPS ALONG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR (M/U50S)...ARND 5F ABV AVG ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS AND THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE (L/M60S).
THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED MON
AFTN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (U70S/L80S).
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE GULF
STREAM WITH A MARKED DECLINE IN SKY COVER OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. SIMILAR DEARTH IN CLOUD COVER NOTED BETWEEN THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND THE SE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS OF MID AFTN. RUC ANALYSIS
DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THRU THE H100-H70 LYR OTHER THAN
AN H100-H85 LYR BAND OF 70PCT MEAN RH OFF THE NE FL COAST. AIRMASS
SIMPLY APPEARS TOO DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT OVERNIGHT POPS OUTSIDE OF
THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS...AND LESS THAN 20PCT AT THAT.
AS THE NE BREEZE STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS MON AFTN...A DEEPER MARINE
STATOCU FIELD WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND MAY ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO DVLP IN
THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. A FEW MAY EVEN SURVIVE THEIR TREK
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH SHRAS WOULD HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT AS A STRONG MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP
VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT. QPF BLO 0.10" AREAWIDE.
THE BRISK NERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH TO DANGEROUS SURF BY
DAYBREAK MON...AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AT THEIR ANNUAL
PEAK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA JUST YET...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN BEFORE THEY GET BETTER. WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN CONCURRENT WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFT 10Z MONDAY MORNING. (SEE MARINE SECTION).
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. BREEZY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...
AND WINDY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BREEZY INLAND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB...COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ADVECT A SMALL COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS WELL
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LINGERING ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRIMARLY CONCERNS WILL BE ALONG THE BEACHES WHERE DANGEROUS
BREAKING SURF EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5-6 FEET...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER SETS. MDL EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA WATER
ADVANCING TO NEAR THE DUNE LINE IN SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE...PRIMARILY 7-10 AM EST TUE-WED...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCERN FOR THE TUE MORNING TIDE. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WITH EARLY MONDAY FORECAST PACKAGE. COASTAL INTERESTS
SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
WED-SUN...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS
ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO
THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...SOME 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL CWA
AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN CWA DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI-SUN.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW EARLY
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 04/01Z...N/NE SFC WND G22-27KTS ALL SITES. BTWN
04/01Z-04/15Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060 E OF KTIX-KOBE. AFT
04/15Z...E/NE SFC WND G23-28KTS WITH SLGT CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. A STRONG HI PRES
BUILDING E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED
TROF OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SRN BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A FRESH TO
STRONG NE BREEZE WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO
6-8FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10FT IN THE GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...THEN TO
8-10FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 12FT IN THE GULFSTREAM BY EARLY MON AFTN.
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA CONFIGURATION.
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY/NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
LESSEN. E/SE FLOW SLACKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TO 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
RESURGENCE OF 20 KNOT GRADIENT FLOW RE-DEVELOPS DOWN THE COAST
BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT DAYBREAK AND MID DAY
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH REBUILDING SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 61 78 67 81 / 20 20 20 20
MCO 58 81 64 84 / 10 20 20 20
MLB 67 79 72 82 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 68 80 72 84 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 56 79 63 82 / 10 20 20 20
SFB 59 80 64 83 / 10 20 20 20
ORL 58 80 65 83 / 10 20 20 20
FPR 68 79 71 83 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CONSOLIDATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WITH ONE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MERGE INTO A SPRAWLING
AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL COVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS COINCIDES WITH A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN DURING SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY...BEFORE THIS RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD ATOP
THE AREA MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH IS A
TUTT LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THAT MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
TRAIL TO THE EAST AND SE OF THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY-WINDY ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSED...EVENTUALLY THERE IS AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG NE AND
EAST FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL MCINTOSH AND
COASTAL LIBERTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO ALL OF COASTAL SE GA
AND MAYBE INTO THE SHORELINE AREAS OF SOUTHERN SC ON TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
WINDS RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AS A STRONG PINCH-FEST DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS THEY CLIMB
UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INLAND WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH.
THE COOL ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MAX TEMPS TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S MOST PLACES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A GREATER
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE DAYS IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST...SO FINE-TUNING MAY BE IN
ORDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WILL EXIST BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
FROM INLAND TO THE COAST...WITH AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE SPREAD FROM
PLACES ALONG THE COLDER NW TIER TO THE MILDER BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...YET STILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS THE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT FEATURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD LOSE STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING ITS
PROGRESSION. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BEFORE
A COOLING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-END CHANCE OF PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FROPA GIVEN THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE LIKELY...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS PORTRAYED BY MODELS SUCH AS LOCAL WRF DATA AND
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG OF SURGE RELATED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
SUNDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1029 MB HIGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS CONSOLIDATING
CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EARLY DAY COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN NORTH AND NE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT WE/LL
NEED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAG FOR AMZ374...BUT GIVEN
THAT THE FREQUENCY OF ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IS LIMITED WE HAVE
REFRAINED AT THIS STAGE FROM DOING SO. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 5 FT OR
LESS...ALTHOUGH A FEW 6-FOOTERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME EAST
PORTION OUTER GA WATERS LATE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A NASTY MARINE EVENT WILL UNFOLD FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE TIME...WITH SOLID SMALL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR...WITH EVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT THAT GALES
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A HUMONGOUS AND INTENSIFYING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXPAND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOWER
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A LARGE
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WITH TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS WILL PREVAIL.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ARE GREATER
THANH 30 OR 35 KT...WITH EVEN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OF 40 OR EVEN 45 KT
TO OCCUR. SOUNDING PROFILES REVEAL A SOLID 25-30 KT WITHIN THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH EVEN A FEW LAYERS OVER 30 KT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE FEEL HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT SCA/S WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC
AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ON MONDAY...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
GALES COULD BE HOISTED AT A LATER TIME. SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD
WITH THE FAVORABLE AND LONG DURATION AND LONG-TRAVELED NE TO EAST
FETCH...AND WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 10 OR 11 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE OR STRONG ONSHORE IS IN THE OFFING
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SOLID 3-4 MILLIBAR SPREAD WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON SUNDAY
AND THE UPCOMING PERIGEE ON WEDNESDAY. SO IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO
MUCH OF A POSITIVE DEPARTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THERE IS EVEN THE RISK OF MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AND GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS THERE WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE AREAS OF BEACH EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD AS
HIGH AS 6-9 FEET AND WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW ONSHORE BREAKERS IN THE
SURF ZONE COULD ATTAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER WATCH ON POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS
NAVIGATING IN AND OUT OF HARBORS AND PORTS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
201 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX UPPER LOW
HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BUT REMAINS DEEP ENOUGH TO IMPACT EASTERN IDAHO
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO TRAILING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN REGION OF DIFFUSE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. SNOW FALLING IN BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS SO DIFFICULT TO GET A
HANDLE ON HOW MUCH COULD BE ACCUMULATING UNDER THE BAND. HRRR ONLY
MODEL TO HAVE A REAL HANDLE ON THIS BAND...WHICH APPEARS TO WEAKEN
AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN HIGHLANDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.
SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO CONTINUING
TO SHIFT EAST...AND ADDITIONAL WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPARENT OVER
REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN PUSHING CURRENT SHORTWAVE PAST THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BRING A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE SNOWS TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS FURTHER EAST WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO PANHANDLE
REGION TO REINFORCE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH GFS AND NAM
HOLD ON TO WEAK CONVECTION MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION NORTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH RAPIDLY DEEPENS THEN
SHIFTS EAST INTO WYOMING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHES EASTERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS UPWARD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE
TO THIS NEXT FAST MOVING FEATURE. DMH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS SLIDE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND HAVE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN THAT TIME FRAME. MODELS
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS STRONGER IN
THIS SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A RETURN TO SOME MOISTURE ON SUNDAY.
GRIDS HAD POPS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DID NOT ALTER THEM MUCH AT ALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD HAVE IN ALL TAF SITE REGIONS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT SUN WHERE
CEILING DROPPED TO MVFR NEAR THE SHOWERS. MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER
TROF ROTATES THROUGH REGION MONDAY AND EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON SNOW
SHOWERS BUT UNLESS SITE UNDER SHOWER WILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017-021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
843 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...RELATIVE DRY SLOT BEHIND MAIN SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED
ACROSS EAST IDAHO AS ADVERTISED PER WV IMAGERY. SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL WORKING THROUGH OREGON THIS
MORNING...AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING IN WESTERN IDAHO PER RADAR IMAGERY/SFC
OBS...WITH TRAJECTORY TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...BREAK IN CLOUDS WORKING
THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MIXING FOR WINDS TO REGENERATE IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. RECENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS LIKELY TO REACH BOTTOM END OF ADVISORY SO WILL
KEEP HEADLINE GOING AS PLANNED. CLOUD COVER WORKING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUT THIS OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON SO CURRENT 2PM EXPIRATION LIKELY
STILL GOOD. OTHERWISE WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO REGNERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS WEAK CONVECTION FIRING
SHORTLY AFTER NOON WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP/WX/SKY TO MEET THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS PROMISED...WE ARE SEEING
THE COLD FRONT AND INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHIFTING TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. SOME AREAS ARE
SEEING GUSTS ALREADY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE SNOW MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN THIS BAND. IN ITS WAKE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL WE GET INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WE GET SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND THE UPPER LEVEL PART OF THIS STORM
MOVES CLOSER. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS AFTER 5AM WILL RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND/OR WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORM. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN END OF THE MAGIC VALLEY.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THAT UNTIL 5PM AS THE WINDS MAY
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY AROUND AMERICAN FALLS...POCATELLO
AND BLACKFOOT. THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO CREATE SOME
POCKETS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT NOT ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT FOR
AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. EVERYONE ELSE WILL STAY IN THE 20S
AND 30S IT APPEARS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGHER CHANCE OVERALL. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR IMPACTS RELATED TO
BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AGAIN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY LAYING DOWN AN INCH OR TWO OF
NEW SNOW. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER...LOWER VALLEYS HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S. THAT MEANS TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S AND 20S
WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS...AND MUCH COLDER AGAIN
FOR TUESDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES.
THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SURE ON HOW QUICKLY TO BRING THE NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY.
THE 0Z NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRIER WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING SNOW TO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE OTHER
MODELS LIKE THE SREF AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
FOR NOW...WE ARE GOING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A
DRY SNAKE PLAIN. MOST AREAS WILL WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER
MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
THOUGH. KEYES
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED OVER
REMAINING AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. IT DOES
NOT TAKE LONG FOR MODEL DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARDS A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE ARE TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE CROSSING
VANCOUVER ISLAND...THE OTHER A CUT OFF CIRCULATION ABOUT 35N 135W.
THE FIRST ONE IS THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE SECOND IS PROBABLY NOT A FACTOR FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST CONSISTENCY FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
IS DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND ALMOST LIMITS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE AREA. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MODEL APPEARS TO WARM TEMPERATURES A
BIT AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICK MOVING AND PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF SNOW WITH IT.
MODEL CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS DEVELOPING A NEW TROUGH AND MOVING
IT INLAND ABOUT NEXT SUNDAY. RS
AVIATION...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
40S EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH...AND KIDA UNTIL 21Z. BY THEN THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF WYOMING AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN AND WINDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH SUNSET. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT NOT DIRECTLY AT TAF SITES. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017-021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
905 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
217 PM CST
TONIGHT...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NOTED WITH BUILDING CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DO EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL...WITH SOME THIN SHIELDING. SFC WINDS HAVE REMAINED
SOUTHERLY...WITH GOOD MIXING THIS AFTN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY WARMED INTO THE MID 50S...AND MAY
TOUCH 60 DEG SOUTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE LATER THIS AFTN
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
UPSTREAM AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EXIST...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT
AS THE CHANNEL OF MOISTURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWFA THAT ANY
CLEARING/THINNING WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS LIKELY INHIBITING MUCH
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...AND COULD SEE TEMPS HOVER ARND 50 CLOSER TO
CHICAGO.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT TO DELAY PRECIP
FROM ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWFA UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
TUE...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES NEAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM THE ELONGATED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY FEED OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE INTO
THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE AND SATURATE THE MOIST CHANNEL THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT A MILD START TO THE DAY...THEN TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM
MUCH BEYOND THE MID 50S TUE AFTN. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...HOWEVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE
TEMPS NEAR 60 DEG. THE MOIST CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
THE CWFA...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MODERATE AT TIMES. HAVE BUMPED
MORE AREAS INTO CATEGORICAL POPS TUE AFTN/NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY
IN THE LOW 50S...PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPR 40S.
ALTHOUGH WITH CONTINUED FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR AND CLOUD COVER THAT
TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH.
WED WILL FEATURE THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MOIST CHANNEL CONTINUES TO FEED
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
FROPA MIDDAY WED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO STEADILY COOL
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OR POST FROPA INTO THE 40S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FEED IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S WED AFTN. SO HIGH TEMPS WED FOR THE NORTHWEST CWFA
WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MID-LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST WED NIGHT ARRIVING
OVERHEAD OF THE CWFA...WITH BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THE LLVLS AND
BRING P-CLOUDY SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO COOL WED NGT/THUR TO ARND -5 TO -8 DEG C...HOWEVER
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BEFORE IT WOULD BECOME MIXED WITH RA/SN.
FOR THUR TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EASTERN CWFA...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LLVLS. EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE CWFA...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY A PORTION OF NORTHWEST INDIANA THAT COULD
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES. TEMPS THUR WILL BE MORE SEASONAL IN
THE MID/UPR 40S.
QPF FOR THE MID-WEEK EVENT APPEARS TO BE ABUNDANT. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.7 TO 1.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWFA WITHIN A 30-36HR TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING...MEDIUM/HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL NOISE AMONGST MEMBERS WITH
THE PAST FEW CYCLES...WHICH POINT TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEMI-ZONAL SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAY CONTINUE INTO SAT. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH MAY SLIDE
INTO THE PAC-NW FRI AND ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW QUICK THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWFA SAT/SUN.
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR.
* HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN MID/LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH CIGS
LOWERING TO IFR SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MANITOBA WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THANKS TO SUNSET BUT A FEW SPORADIC GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A SOUTH DIRECTION CONTINUING. CIGS WILL BE LOWERING
THIS EVENING AS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUD COVER IN THE 3500-5500
FT RANGE WORKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE TERMINALS.
ATTENTION TURNS TO AN UPPER LAVE WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HAVE COVERED THE THREAT WITH VCSH FOR A PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AT THE ILLINOIS TERMINALS WITH A PROB30 AT GYY GIVEN
THAT THE FOCUS OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER WEST OF GYY. CIGS LOOK TO
LOWER SLIGHTLY AND MAY REACH HIGHER END MVFR LEVELS FOR A FEW
HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY SO SHOULD SEE
A BRIEF DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH A LOW CHANCE WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE.
A TROUGH WILL QUICKLY BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS
WELL AS LOWERING CIGS/VSBY. ARRIVAL TIME OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
MAY NEED TWEAKING BUT IT DOES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MID OR LATE
EVENING AT THIS POINT AT THE CHICAGO TERMINALS AT THIS
POINT...WITH AN EARLY EVENING START AT RFD. ONCE IT DOES ARRIVE
MVFR VSBY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH CIGS LOWERING IFR AT SOME
POINT TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SHRA IN THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CIGS
APPROACHING MVFR.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ARRIVING TUESDAY EVENING...MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR ARRIVING
TUESDAY NIGHT.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING WEST. RAIN/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MODERATE NW WINDS...BECOMING VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
236 PM CST
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GALES HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAKE TODAY
IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO HUDSON BAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW TO A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS
LOW ITSELF LIFTS OVER THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LEAVING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND LIGHTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
840 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Only minor changes made to the hourly forecast grids for sky cover
and temperatures. Otherwise, the current forecast is on target
overnight for mainly cloudy conditions and temperatures only
dropping another 6-8 degrees because of the sky cover.
Weak shortwave in NE Texas is expected to move NE overnight and
NNE Tuesday morning. NAM, RAP and SREF models all indicate that
the best isentropic lift and moisture will be in west central IL,
with eastern IL relatively dry. The 00Z ILX sounding had a lot of
dry air in upper levels (above 10,000 ft), and still a fair amount
of dry air below 5,000 ft. Thus, any rain should hold off until
after daybreak.
Miller
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 555 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
The main concern in the next 24 hours will be the potential for
MVFR ceilings at central IL TAF sites Tuesday morning-early
afternoon.
A weak shortwave trough and associated isentropic lift is expected
to move from NE Texas this evening to west central IL by tomorrow
afternoon, ahead of a long wave trough digging toward the southern
High Plains. Initially, forecast soundings start out quite dry in
the lower atmosphere, so this should keep ceilings at VFR levels
through tonight and into early morning.
As the lower levels moisten, a gradual development of MVFR
ceilings is anticipated Tuesday morning. Scattered light rain
showers should accompany the lowering ceilings, so will go with
VCSH at most locations. The exception will be in eastern IL - at
KCMI - where drier low level air will persist since the best
isentropic lift is anticipated in the western half of the state.
The best lift is expected to transition into northern IL by afternoon
as the weak shortwave trough lifts NNE. This should allow ceilings
to climb back into the VFR category across much of central IL.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Forecast concerns today are the main precipitation (pcpn)
producing cold front on Wednesday, and a minor front again on
Saturday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.
Morning upper air shows upper level jet diving south along west US
coast, with a west southwest jet from northern Mexico into MO/IL.
Surface data depicts frontal zone already into central plains,
will stream of moisture from the gulf ahead of the front into MS
River valley. 925mb and 850mb data depicts this flow well, with
good low level jet pushing moisture toward region. Wetern US jet
flow progged to move shortwave into the plains by Tuesday, then
getting the frontal boundary moving. Prog of the frontal movement
and approach of upper system from the west results in a delay of
pcpn entering central IL later in the day Tuesday. Best chances of
pcpn then on Tuesday night through Wednesday, tapering off
Wednesday night. Adjusted QPF slightly with combination of HPCQPF
12z and 18z, adjusting slightly down amounts a bit. Resultant
total storm QPF still in the 1 to 1.3 inch range in the eastern
1/3 of central IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
High pressure moves in late part of week and then a second cold
front moves through Saturday. Moisture limited with this system,
and so should come through mainly dry over CWA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS
SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER
VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND
H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE
LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR
SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO
DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS
FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS
ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25KT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THIS
TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
SHIFTING TO THE N-NW. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. NW WINDS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN IN THE 15-25KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
248 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show a stream of
embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the main wave
positioned across the western conus. The southwesterly flow has
allowed ample mid level moisture from the western coast to trail
northeast across the central plains, resulting in a mid level deck
of scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. This cloud
cover however has not hindered the strong southerly winds
continuing to gust to around 45 mph near the Concordia and Abilene
areas, lessening between 30 and 40 mph gusts near the Manhattan
and Topeka areas. Will continue with the current wind advisory
through 6 PM when winds weaken below criteria.
The surface trough responsible for the tight pressure gradient
should shift slightly eastward into western Kansas this evening as
a progressive upper shortwave trough lifts northeast through the
northern plains. This should keep the gusty winds in place
overnight, weakening slightly between 15 and 20 mph sustained with
gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with cloud cover in the area, lows in
the upper 40s will be common. In terms of precipitation, very weak
echos develop per the 4 km ARW and 3 km HRRR for late this evening
into the overnight hours. The NAM also hints at weak isentropic
lift on the 310 and 315K surfaces as an area of weak mid level
vorticity is noted across eastern areas of Kansas. The limiting
factors are the lack of strong mid level forcing and dry air at
the low levels with cloud bases near 10 KFT. Kept slight chances
for any developing shower just in case it is able to overcome the
drier air and reach the surface.
Another warm Monday afternoon is in store as the weak cold front
tracks southeast, weakening winds to around 10 mph along and
behind the boundary. Surface high pressure builds in bringing weak
cold advection into the area. Have trended highs toward 60 degrees
for north central areas, warming to the lower and middle 60s for
east central Kansas as southerly winds around 15 mph are
maintained through mid afternoon when the boundary arrives.
Conditions remain dry through the afternoon as a strong shortwave
trough deepens out west, bringing increasing rain chances by
Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning the pattern sets up
for a rainy early/mid week. By 12z Tuesday, the inverted surface
trof has set up along the central and northern portions of the cwa
while tropical moisture is swept northward over the central
plains. Rain showers expected to lift into the southern counties
in the evening and spread into Nebraska by sunrise. Not much
instability to work with throughout this entire system
progression, and will only carry isolated thunder as a result.
Of interest is PW values which come in at 1 to near 1.5 inches by
12z Tuesday which is about 180% of normal for this time of year.
Without a specific boundary or focusing mechanism in the cwa on
Tuesday would anticipate the moisture and ascent to bring a broad
area of moderate rain throughout the day, before the cold front
associated with the upper trof sweeps through in the overnight
hours. May see some pockets of heavier rain as the front moves
through, but have gone with generally 1-1.5 inches across the area
from evening Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
EC has come in not quite as cold at 850mb as the trof passes and
also not as far south. Cold temps already lagged behind the
moisture and will therefore keep mention of any snow mixed in with
the rain out of the forecast. Will have to see how the cold pool
moves across the northern counties on Wednesday morning into
afternoon as it could be cold/unstable enough to generate a few
flakes. Also will expect falling temperatures on Wednesday
afternoon as colder air comes in. Highs in the 50s on a rainy
Tuesday afternoon will become a dry breezy 40s for Wednesday.
Fortunately temperatures warm up slowly through the end of the
week as zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and the lee
trof/southerly surface winds return on Friday. GFS and EC differ
with the strength of the shortwave that slides across the northern
plains later Friday into Saturday, but with northern track have
kept the warmer drier trend at this time with highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR conditions persist with the focus being winds at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK.
Strong southerly winds sustained above 20 kts with gusts near or
above 30 kts are expected through 01Z. Mid level cloud cover
increases aft 01z, with any developing shower to impact areas
northeast of KTOP/KFOE. South to southeast winds remain above 15 kts
sustained overnight before beginning to veer towards the south at
KTOP/KFOE and southwest at KMHK aft 12z as a front approaches.
Wind speeds remain at or above 12 kts sustained through 18Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-
034>036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
109 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER. LONGWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND WARMER
850 MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS SOLUTION WITH
ONLY 6-12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. IF THE FIRST SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND MAYBE SOME NORTH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF A
CHANGE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. DUE TO AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE
MODELS AND MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE ALLBLEND GRIDS FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25KT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THIS
TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
SHIFTING TO THE N-NW. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. NW WINDS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN IN THE 15-25KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER. LONGWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND WARMER
850 MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS SOLUTION WITH
ONLY 6-12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. IF THE FIRST SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND MAYBE SOME NORTH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF A
CHANGE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. DUE TO AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE
MODELS AND MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE ALLBLEND GRIDS FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST WEST OF KGLD TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD CO/KS BORDER BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR SO AT
KGLD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS AT KMCK. BY 00Z SFC
TROUGH RETREATS WEST ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO BECOME
VRB06KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST/WEST AROUND 11KTS WHILE AT KMCK THEY REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE
TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD
SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT
IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV
Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE
PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE
SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.
IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT
THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST
CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS
TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN
EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST WEST OF KGLD TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD CO/KS BORDER BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR SO AT
KGLD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS AT KMCK. BY 00Z SFC
TROUGH RETREATS WEST ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO BECOME
VRB06KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST/WEST AROUND 11KTS WHILE AT KMCK THEY REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
820 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AND MID CLOUDS FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
TO DETERMINE HOW FAR INLAND THE 2-4K SC DECK GETS TONIGHT DUE TO THE
LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW. MOST COASTAL AREAS FROM THE VA ERN SHORE ON
SOUTH THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC ALREADY CLOUDY BUT THESE CLOUDS
ARE HAVING A TUFF TIME MOVING WEST THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD
CIRRUS CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WEST
OF THE BAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE U30S-L40S WITH NEARLY STEADY
READINGS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS SERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST THAT CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM BOTH DIRECTIONS. THUS EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME M CLOUDY TO CLOUDY ACROSS THE FA TONIGHT. LOWS FROM
L-M30S WEST OF I95...REMAINING STEADY IN THE M-U40S ALONG COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. SPEED MAX WILL EMERGE ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY...EJECTING THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EWD INTO
THE PLAINS LATE TUES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE ERN CONUS TUES AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) ANCHORS OFF THE SE COAST. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF THE NE COAST TUES-WEDS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THRU WED.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE WED AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE COASTAL TROUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. RAIN MAY
END UP BEING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
SRN STREAM INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUES-WEDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE WEDS AS THE SFC/H85 HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HANDLING
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. TROUGH WILL
EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NE THURS...PUSHING THE BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIP NOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA (MAINLY E OF INTERSTATE 95) IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THURS AS THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY DISSIPATES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW AND THETA-E
ADVECTION (MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY) MAKE THIS SCENARIO SEEM
REASONABLE. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS
AND RAISE POPS ALONG THE COAST. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
(STILL REMAINING CHANCE POPS). FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURS.
WHILE CAA WILL WANE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (MID 50S N TO MID 60S S) DUE TO LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WARMER WED AND THURS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NEURALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MILD WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TO MORE ZONAL FROM THE MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS IS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
BY ALL THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. WILL LOOK
FOR NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE ANOTHER TROF
GO BY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SOME
CLEAR NIGHTS AND CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HAVE NIGHTTIME LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT A 2-3K FT STRATUS DECK...CURRENTLY OFF
THE VA COAST...INLAND OVERNIGHT. MVFR DECK WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND WILL THEN MOVE WEST...REACHING RIC BY 09Z.
CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE TUE AFTN AS DAYTIME MIXING
OCCURS AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS WED MORNING AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THU/THU NGT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CDFNT PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO
20 KTS. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE THE HRRR LOCAL WRF AND HIRES
ARW ALL SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE BRING
WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH A LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LONG
OCEAN FETCH...WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. SEAS WILL DROP UNDER 5 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THEN THE NAM BUT
LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE NAM FOR NOW.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE WATER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND SAS
DIMINISHING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DAP/JAO
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
717 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG ~1038 SFC HIGH (+2 STD DEV) WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...USHERING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE (-1 TO -1.5
STD DEV). ALOFT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN CONUS
AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PLUME
OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR STREAMING FROM NEAR
THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA (REMNANTS OF SONIA) INTO THE OH VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...NE FLOW (BREEZY NEAR THE
COAST...DIMINISHING TONIGHT) WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/STRATO-CU OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE...SPREADING WWD THRU
TONIGHT. NO ACTIVITY VISIBLE ON RADAR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP OVER THE SE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO SPREAD WWD THAN ANTICIPATED...SO OPTED TO LOWERS TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO INLAND TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. SPEED MAX WILL EMERGE ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY...EJECTING THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EWD INTO
THE PLAINS LATE TUES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE ERN CONUS TUES AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) ANCHORS OFF THE SE COAST. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF THE NE COAST TUES-WEDS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THRU WED.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE WED AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE COASTAL TROUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. RAIN MAY
END UP BEING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
SRN STREAM INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUES-WEDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE WEDS AS THE SFC/H85 HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HANDLING
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. TROUGH WILL
EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NE THURS...PUSHING THE BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIP NOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA (MAINLY E OF INTERSTATE 95) IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THURS AS THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY DISSIPATES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW AND THETA-E
ADVECTION (MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY) MAKE THIS SCENARIO SEEM
REASONABLE. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS
AND RAISE POPS ALONG THE COAST. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
(STILL REMAINING CHANCE POPS). FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURS.
WHILE CAA WILL WANE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (MID 50S N TO MID 60S S) DUE TO LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WARMER WED AND THURS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NEURALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MILD WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TO MORE ZONAL FROM THE MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS IS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
BY ALL THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. WILL LOOK
FOR NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE ANOTHER TROF
GO BY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SOME
CLEAR NIGHTS AND CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HAVE NIGHTTIME LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NE WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT A 2-3K FT STRATUS DECK...CURRENTLY OFF
THE VA COAST...INLAND OVERNIGHT. MVFR DECK WILL IMPACT COASTAL SITES
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z AND WILL THEN MOVE WEST...REACHING RIC BY 09Z.
CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE TUE AFTN AS DAYTIME MIXING
OCCURS AND DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS WED MORNING AS NE FLOW
CONTINUES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THU/THU NGT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CDFNT PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO
20 KTS. HIGH RES MODELS SUCH AS THE THE HRRR LOCAL WRF AND HIRES
ARW ALL SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE BRING
WINDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AND WITH A LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LONG
OCEAN FETCH...WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. SEAS WILL DROP UNDER 5 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THEN THE NAM BUT
LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE NAM FOR NOW.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER
THE WATER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND SAS
DIMINISHING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DAP/JAO
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
622 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A COUPLED JET (RIGHT REAR
OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES). A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LIKELY LEADING
TO A SHARP CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OVER THE EAST AND SNOW OVER THE
WEST. TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
FURTHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LIMITED COLD AIR TO PULL SOUTH
AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARMER WATER TEMPS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE REGIONS. THUS...THINKING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IS
COMPLICATED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO HAVE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS A
SITUATION OF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH NEAR SURFACE WARM OR
ISOTHERMAL LAYER...HAVE FOLLOWED 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0
VALUES TO DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR WARMING WILL LIKELY RUN FROM SKANDIA TO IRON
MOUNTAIN.
AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...EXPECT 0.40-1.0 INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH A
FGEN BAND FROM ROUGHLY WATERSMEET TO BARAGA COUNTY. IN THAT
SAME REALM...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS ARE SHIFTING THE QPF
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED FORCING
LOCATIONS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIFT TO BE JUST BELOW THE DGZ WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED QPF
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN SNOW AREAS WOULD EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES AND THAT SITS RIGHT IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME TIME (DUE TO THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING DURING
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -7 TO -9C RANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO DELTA-T VALUES
ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE
7-8KFT RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FORECASTS FOR
THE SNOW BELTS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...SHOWED
DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THEM LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATION OVER THE EAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED OFF SNOW ALOFT FALLING
THROUGH A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...LEANED ON 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR P-TYPE WHICH INDICATES A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. A
LOT OF VARIABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH HOW COLD THE AIR
WILL BE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH MORE THAN
LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH SO
THAT VSBY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS.
VEERING WINDS TO WSW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER MI WILL HELP
PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH
WEST WINDS ALLOWING GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH
SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN
AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO
9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING
OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING
FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS
(AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP
SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM
WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT
HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE
WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP
TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN
ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A
QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST.
ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH
OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST
CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME
BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD
SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY
NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
AFTER SUNSET.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH
LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN
PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER
NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD
STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS
GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E
AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH
THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF
PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE
VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN
OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL
TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT
OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS
UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS
FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS
SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND
RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY
LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE
OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE
NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF
A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN
WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND
NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT
TIME.
SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT IWD AND
CMX THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AT SAW. SOME MVFR CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST AT SAW UNTIL LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW
PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS
DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW
PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A
PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO
GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1001 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BIG QUESTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL BE WHETHER ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP SOUTH OF
I80 WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
4-5000 FEET WERE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. BEST TIMING
WOULD BE AFTER 4 AM...THUS MADE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
DOUBT ANY PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY NOON ON TUESDAY...WITH LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE SLOWER ONSET...WHICH
WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NE/SD BORDER MAY BE ALL SNOW FROM THE ONSET...AND NE/KS/MO
BORDER REGION WILL BE ALL RAIN.
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ONE QUESTION WOULD BE WHETHER THE NORFOLK AND
WAYNE METRO AREAS WOULD NEED TO BE INCLUDED. RIGHT NOW...WE ONLY
HAVE ONE TO TWO INCHES FORECAST FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES. 00Z NAM
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER GFS/SREF STILL
INDICATING SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE NEXT FORECASTER
LOOK AT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE 3 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING BY 16-18Z. BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS COULD
EVENTUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY 18-20Z. COULD ALSO SEE THE RAIN BEGIN
TO MIX WITH SNOW AT KOFK BY 21-24Z...BUT SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT
KLNK-KOMA.
DEWALD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHERE
WILL THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE...AMOUNTS...AND IF HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED.
THE 12Z H5 PATTERN HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND A
SECOND TRAILING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DID DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH WINDS HAD MADE IT TO NEBRASKA CITY AND RED OAK BY
20Z. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TROF HAD SHIFTED WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND IOWA.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT H5 TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM MONTANA
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ORGANIZES OVER COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. 12Z NAM/GFS BEGIN
TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AN H7/H85 40KT SPEED MAX TRAVELS FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENT MID LEVEL TROF. BY
18Z THE NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPERATURES AND POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST OF NELIGH TO WAYNE...WITH
THE NELIGH TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE AREA BEING A TRANSITION ZONE DURING
THE DAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AND RAIN LIKELY FARTHER
SOUTH. SOME INSTABILITY DOES WORK INTO THE SOUTH AND WITH SUCH A
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THUNDER EVEN FARTHER
NORTH.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE A SOLID 3 TO 4 G/KG AND HAVE WATER
EQUIVALENTS BETWEEN .6 AND .8 ON AN INCH. THE GROUND IS STILL
WARM...HOWEVER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS MENTIONED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOME LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO A
DAVID CITY...MACY LINE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW AREA BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES IS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE A BAND OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ALIGNED FROM WAHOO THROUGH TEKAMAH TOWARD HARLAN IOWA.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN IOWA DURING THE
EVENING...AND DIMINISHING FURTHER AFTER 06Z. AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS...CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A RAIN SNOW
MIX AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WORKS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND SURFACE LOW BOTH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH...IN CASE IT STARTS TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH AND
BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE DRY COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS A COOL-DOWN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD THEN MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016-017-030.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
933 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AND
EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST. EARLIER MODEL
RUNS HAD SUGGESTED A MARINE LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER
06Z ACROSS NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVER EASTERN MAINE NOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO THIS HAPPENING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING ANY LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OCEAN MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS
WESTWARD OR INLAND NEAR NYC. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND BY THIS POINT IN THE NIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA BY 06Z. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC WHICH
CAPTURES THIS MOISTURE WELL AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH LOW CLOUDS CLOSER TO 12Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
HI CLDS ARE TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN
DESPITE THE STRONG SFC RDGG. BELIEVE THESE CLDS WILL CONT TO ERODE
AS THE RDG BLDS ALOFT ON TUE. OTR CNCRN OVRNGT IS THE RETURN FLOW
ARND THE BOTTOM OF THE HI AND THE MARINE MOISTURE WITH IT. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE THE DVLPMT OF SOME LOW CLDS OVER THE NEPA ZONES TNGT
WITH THE LL MOISTURE...BUT THE WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT AFT SUNRISE.
THE HI CLDS TO THE WEST AND THE LOW CLDS TO THE SOUTH WILL IMPACT
OVRNGT LOWS AND GRNL XPCT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD 10F HIER TNGT THAN
LAST. MOS GUID IN RSNBLE AGREEMENT IN THE LOWS WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS IN THE LWR 20S BY TUE MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI VERY SLOWLY EDGES EAST THRU WED BUT UPR HGTS CONT TO BLDS
AHD OF THE NEXT WV. AIR WILL CONT TO MODERATE WITH RDGS RCHG INTO
THE UPR 50S AND LWR 60S WED AFTN. MARINE ST TUE MRNG WILL NOT BE A
PRBLM WED AS THE FLOW BECOMES DEEP SWLY PUSHING THAT LL MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST.
FNT APCHS AND PASSES THU. SOME LGT RAIN MAY BRK OUT OVER THE WEST
WED NGT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHD OF THE FNT
ON THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND WLD HAVE THE FNT
PASS THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THU. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA NEARER THE UPR WV...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE
FNT MAY PASS DRY. WILL KEEP IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THU..,.BUT CERTAINLY EVERYONE
WILL SEE SOME RAIN ON THU.
CAA AND DRY AIR IS STRONG ON THU BHD THE FNT...BUT ANY LE SHD WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE SHRT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN ACTIVE
JETSTREAM REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THAT
SAID...EXPECT DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...850
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO NEAR -7C WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A DECENT
RESPONSE FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. QUICK LOOK
AT SEVERAL GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RA/SN MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TOWARDS EARLY FRI MORNING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES INTO THE
REGION...WITH FAIR/DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COMPACT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
EJECT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR
NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM NEARS...WITH MAIN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUN. AS FEATURE ROLES THROUGH...EXPECT RA SHWRS ON SUN BEFORE
PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO A MIX SUN NGT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT KAVP/KBGM, SOUTHEAST FLOW TOWARD
DAYBREAK MAY BRING A MARINE LAYER INTO THE TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT KBGM AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL SATURATION BUT IT DOES LOOK BETTER AT KAVP. FOR NOW WILL
COVER THIS CONDITION WITH TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 09Z-13Z FOR LOW MVFR
CIGS.
LIGHT E/SE WINDS OVERNIGHT GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING
S/SW 5-10 KTS BY MID MORNING TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT AND WED MORN...POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KBGM/KAVP...WITH
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE.
WED AFTN AND NGT...VFR.
THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS (LWR END MVFR/PSBL IFR) SEEM
LIKELY IN SHWRS.
THU NGT AND FRI...MVFR IN MIXED SHOWERS IN NY. AVP VFR.
SAT...RETURN TO VFR REGION-WIDE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
853 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
AREA OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM EARLIER
IS THINNING AND LIFTING A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND RAP13
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT HIGH RH ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING IT OUT TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN SKY CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL OF THESE TRENDS HANDLED
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RUC13 KEEPS THIS AREA
INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EVEN SAGS IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT DOES KEEP HIGH RH ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 925MB-H85
LAYER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF MOVEMENT SOUTH BUT AGREE THAT
THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MINOR UPDATE TO THE SKY GRIDS IN KEEPING THE ABOVE AREA IN LONGER
AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME TRENDS DEVELOP.
REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS DOING WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WAS
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LOW WAS CLEARING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL RATHER QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRYING DEWPOINTS FROM WESTERLY SUBSIDING FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE WEST TO AROUND
20 NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. ON TUESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NORTH DAKOTA ONLY SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY N THE 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED THE RESULTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MISS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM
AIR TO LOWER AND MID LEVELS...BUT SURFACE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT TIMING...BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME EITHER ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S...THEN BECOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS BOTH SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS
COOL QUICKLY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
KMOT CONTINUES TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF MVFR CIGS AS OF 00Z
TUESDAY. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
CAUTIOUSLY SHOW A SCATTERING OUT TREND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS KMOT IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE OVC CIGS. KISN WILL BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY AS WELL FOR ANY INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS NOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING.
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RUC13 KEEPS THIS AREA
INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EVEN SAGS IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT DOES KEEP HIGH RH ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 925MB-H85
LAYER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF MOVEMENT SOUTH BUT AGREE THAT
THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MINOR UPDATE TO THE SKY GRIDS IN KEEPING THE ABOVE AREA IN LONGER
AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME TRENDS DEVELOP.
REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS DOING WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WAS
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LOW WAS CLEARING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL RATHER QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRYING DEWPOINTS FROM WESTERLY SUBSIDING FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE WEST TO AROUND
20 NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. ON TUESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NORTH DAKOTA ONLY SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY N THE 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED THE RESULTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MISS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM
AIR TO LOWER AND MID LEVELS...BUT SURFACE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT TIMING...BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME EITHER ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S...THEN BECOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS BOTH SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS
COOL QUICKLY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
KMOT CONTINUES TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF MVFR CIGS AS OF 00Z
TUESDAY. WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
CAUTIOUSLY SHOW A SCATTERING OUT TREND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS KMOT IS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE OVC CIGS. KISN WILL BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY AS WELL FOR ANY INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS NOW
ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH THIS EVENING.
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS ARE VFR AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY NEXT 24HR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND SPEEDS ARE UP IN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW AND ARE EXPANDING INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY A FEW MORE COUNTIES NORTH SO IT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE RED
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ROSE QUICKLY AS THE WIND INCREASED WITH MOST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER NOW INTO THE LOW 50S. THICKER
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SO THERE
MAY BE MORE FILTERED SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT
SUNSET SWITCHING TO THE SW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-039-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-
013>015-022-027>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MAIN PUSH OF WIND SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CROSS VALLEY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM GETTING AS STRONG AS THEY
COULD. ADVISORY AREA LOOKS FINE FOR NOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WINDS AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
LOOK FINE ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WINDS WITH KFAR AND GETTING TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ027-030-039-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-013>015-
022-027-029>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO CRITERIA
FOR FAR...AND CKN ALTHOUGH FOR SOME REASON GFK IS BORDERLINE. WITH
925 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING THINK THAT
MORE OF THE VALLEY COULD REACH CRITERIA SO EXPANDED NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WINDS WITH KFAR AND GETTING TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ027-030-039-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001>003-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN ERN ND AND RRV AND SPREAD
INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA BY 16Z. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT
TIMES...ESP IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH OTHER SITES 25-30KTS.
DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY AFTN
IN DVL BASIN AND TOWARD EVENING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ029>031-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL CANT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS. THIS MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT ALL
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
LOCALLY...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND
AND AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP
OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING.
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM
THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO
60 MOST PLACES.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
MOST PLACES WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN
LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST
WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE
50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER
AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
AIR RIDGING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE MVFR
CIGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR AS MORNING APPROACHED. EXPECT
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING. LIKELY
KEEP/DEVELOP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL
CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
611 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
LOCALLY..OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND
AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING.
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM
THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO
60 MOST PLACES.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
MOST PLACES WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN
LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST
WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE
50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER
AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
AIR RIDGING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE MVFR
CIGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR AS MORNING APPROACHED. EXPECT
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING. LIKELY
KEEP/DEVELOP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL
CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
LOCALLY..OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND
AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING.
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM
THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO
60 MOST PLACES.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
MOST PLACES WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN
LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST
WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE
50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER
AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TO START WITH IFR CIGS AT
KMFD LIKELY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OF THE VERY MOIST AIR. FLOW FROM
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER AIR RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MVFR TO BREAK
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO START WITH CIGS BREAKING AND LIFTING THROUGH
THE MORNING TO VFR. LIKELY KEEP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
HEATING WILL CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1134 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
A STRONG SOUTH BREEZE EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
EAST...SO WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE
ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN BAROCLINIC LEAF. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF
KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO
45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND
EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR.
LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
A STRONG SOUTH BREEZE EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
EAST...SO WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE
ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN BAROCLINIC LEAF. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF
KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO
40 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND
EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND
KATY. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF
KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO
40 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND
EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND
KATY. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
328 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF KM
LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KPIR AND
KMBG...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KABR AND
KATY WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT KABR AND KATY WITH A STRONG
40 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...BUT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. ONCE HEATING/MIXING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND PICK UP A GUST
CHARACTER...THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL ABATE.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
936 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...INCREASING POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VORTICITY MAXIMA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT AS WARM
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
AT KAMA, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 05Z AND INTO IFR CATEGORY 09Z-17Z; CONDITIONS COULD BE AS LOW
AS VLIFR BRIEFLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND 20Z. THERE COULD BE VCSH OR EVEN
DZ 09Z-17Z.
AT KDHT, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 05Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 09Z-16Z; A BRIEF DETERIORATION TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
AFTER 16Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL 05Z-09Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 09Z-16Z. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AFTER 23Z, BUT WE DIDN`T BRING IT THROUGH SINCE
IT`S AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
AT KGUY, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 11Z-16Z; BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD STICK AROUND AFTER 16Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WE`LL RAISE THEM INTO VFR
AFTER 20Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL 07Z-11Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 11Z-
16Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 22Z, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AFTER 22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STATE OF THE FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PANHANDLES REMAIN LOCKED
IN DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FRONT. THIS WILL BE A
BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 3 HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHILE LEAVING PERCENTAGES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS CLOSER THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN. INCREASED POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THE RECENT TREND OF HIGHER POPS FURTHER
WEST AS SHOWN IN THE HRRR RUC.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS POPS AND STRUCTURE
BUT SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE TREND THIS SEASON OF
NOCTURNAL COLD FRONTS MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS MUCH
SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER THE INITIAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE TIME FRAME FOR A THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT OR 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
13/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
557 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
AT KAMA, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 05Z AND INTO IFR CATEGORY 09Z-17Z; CONDITIONS COULD BE AS LOW
AS VLIFR BRIEFLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND 20Z. THERE COULD BE VCSH OR EVEN
DZ 09Z-17Z.
AT KDHT, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 05Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 09Z-16Z; A BRIEF DETERIORATION TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
AFTER 16Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL 05Z-09Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 09Z-16Z. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AFTER 23Z, BUT WE DIDN`T BRING IT THROUGH SINCE
IT`S AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
AT KGUY, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 11Z-16Z; BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD STICK AROUND AFTER 16Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WE`LL RAISE THEM INTO VFR
AFTER 20Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL 07Z-11Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 11Z-
16Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 22Z, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AFTER 22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STATE OF THE FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PANHANDLES REMAIN LOCKED
IN DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FRONT. THIS WILL BE A
BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 3 HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHILE LEAVING PERCENTAGES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS CLOSER THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN. INCREASED POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THE RECENT TREND OF HIGHER POPS FURTHER
WEST AS SHOWN IN THE HRRR RUC.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS POPS AND STRUCTURE
BUT SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE TREND THIS SEASON OF
NOCTURNAL COLD FRONTS MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS MUCH
SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER THE INITIAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE TIME FRAME FOR A THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT OR 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JC/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.
WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SE LATER TODAY BRINGING BACK
A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. TX TECH WRF AND HRRR MODELS
EVEN DEPICTING SOME POPCORN SHRA AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA &
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME
LOW POPS THERE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT
ZONE NEAR THE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHER PW`S AND IMPULSES
APPROACHING IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...ANTICIPATE SCT POPS AREAWIDE
MON AFTN INTO MIDWEEK. STILL APPEARS BEST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WED AS PREFRONTAL TROF & COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END WED NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY SEASONABLE DAYS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. 47
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE E/NE LATER TODAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE GRADUAL RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SELY WINDS MON/TUES. LEVELS COULD APP-
ROACH CAUTION LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDS. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY AND/OR CAUTION FLAGS
WEDS NIGHT/THURS. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF ISSUES
WITH LOWER (MVFR) CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY MON MORNING HOURS...ESP-
ECIALLY FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST (LBX). 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 54 70 63 76 / 10 10 40 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 55 74 66 78 / 10 20 40 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 64 76 71 79 / 10 20 40 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
941 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
CLEARING POSSIBLE IN THE NW TOWARD MORNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE...AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST
PLACES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES UNDER
THE LOW CLOUD DECK...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...SEEING MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
POSSIBLE WEST TO EAST LATE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. KEPT THINGS
VFR IN THE EAST FOR NOW...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD DECK...BUT OTHERWISE LOOKS DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
RAIN WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. CIGS MAY BE VFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GO BACK
DOWN AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...LIKELY EVENTUALLY GETTING BELOW 1 KFT
BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...BASED ON LATEST OBSERVED AND FORECAST WINDS AND
WAVES...WILL BE CANCELLING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. DECIDED TO TRIM BACK THE ADVISORY END
TIME A COUPLE HOURS NORTH OF THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA CANADA AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH MN AND CENTRAL IOWA IS
PRODUCING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WI
THIS AFTERNOON.
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND SPRINKLES CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL WI
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PERSISTENT 850MB WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST CENTRAL WI BY 6 PM. ANOTHER AREA
OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WI WITH 850MB CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IS NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP AT THE MOMENT...BUT THERE
IS AN AREA OF STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT AREA AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING IN CASE ANY LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES DEVELOP OUT OF IT.
AS THE MANITOBA LOW OCCLUDES AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN WI LEADING TO A VERY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THEREFORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECTING JUST A
LARGE ENOUGH TEMP-DEWPOINT TEMP DIFFERENCE TO AVOID EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN TUE MORNING AS A
500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AND WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
REMAINING OVER IOWA AND MN WITH THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. THE LOWEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WI.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH SOUTHWEST 125 KNOT 250 MB JET
INCREASING TO 140 KNOTS WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN PERSISTENT
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 700M MB LAYERS ARE SATURATED
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DRIES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPWARD MOTION
PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST TIP. BY THE TIME THE 850 MB LAYER
COOLS...THE LIFT IS WEAK AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TOO
WARM FOR ANY SNOW. THE 850 LOW TRACKS FROM WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS...AND
ALSO TO THE SOUTH WHERE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. EVEN SO
AMOUNTS SHOULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS OVER
200 PCT OF NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY WITH NEUTRAL 700 MB UPWARD
MOTION.
THE 925/850/700 MB LAYER DRYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH 700 MB RH INCREASES AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS. WITH CLEARING...LOWS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOES ZONAL BEFORE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN SOUTH FLOW/WARM ADVECTION QUICKLY KICK IN AHEAD OF THE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORMING TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MOVING
QUICKLY EAST SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS
BORDER.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A ZONAL FLOW RETURNS AT 500 MB...WITH THE STRONGEST JET ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST CENTRAL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WI IS SPREADING
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE VFR BUT COULD
DROP TO MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE
ABOUT WHETHER THE STRATUS WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHEAST WI OR WHAT
CEILING HEIGHTS WILL BE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESUME TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE PLAINS. RAIN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI JUST AFTER
NOON TUESDAY AND INTO SOUTHEAST WI LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MARINE...
THE WIND GUSTS AT THE SHORELINE ARE NOT QUITE MEETING GALE FORCE
LEVELS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ALLOW THE GALE WARNING TO
CONTINUE NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET IN CASE
ANY OF THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE CAN MIX DOWN. THE GALE WILL
TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NIGHT AS WAVES WILL BE
SLOWER THAN THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE NIGHT ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY IN THE EVENING AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...BUT WAVES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
SOUTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING
MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS
OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS
POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4
INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO
CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB
WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35
KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z.
THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW
INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE
HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE
SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH
BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW
MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM
COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE
03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...
GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...
GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME
OF THOSE WINDS.
PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING
WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES...
THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...
THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD
DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER
SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES
DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE
SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN
EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH
SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING
IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE
RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 24 KTS AT KRST WITH
GUSTS TO 34 KTS POSSIBLE. AT KLSE...WINDS WILL BE IN THE 14 TO
16 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 1800FT AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT PRODUCING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS COULD MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CEASES. PLAN ON WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE
14 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIAL AT KRST. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...WITH BASES RANGING FROM 15-20KFT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING
MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS
OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS
POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4
INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO
CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB
WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35
KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z.
THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW
INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE
HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE
SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH
BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW
MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM
COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE
03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...
GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...
GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME
OF THOSE WINDS.
PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING
WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES...
THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...
THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD
DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER
SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES
DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE
SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN
EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH
SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING
IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE
RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
AREA AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MN. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25KTS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT INTO MON. GUST APPROACHING 35
KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KRST SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DECREASE BUT
GUSTINESS CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH 925 MB WINDS SOUTH AT 50 KTS
TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT KRST AND KLSE TONIGHT AS
A HEADS-UP TO BOTH INCOMING AND DEPARTING FLIGHTS.
LOOKING OFF THE BLUFF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOWER
STRATUS DECK MOVING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ADDED A SCT005 CLOUD
LAYER TO KLSE TAF THRU 15Z. GIVEN THE INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS...
REMOVED THE BCFG MENTION FROM KLSE. AFTER THAT...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
TO BE GOOD VFR TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING
MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS
OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS
POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4
INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO
CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB
WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35
KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z.
THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW
INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE
HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE
SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH
BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW
MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM
COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE
03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...
GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...
GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME
OF THOSE WINDS.
PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING
WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES...
THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...
THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD
DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER
SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES
DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE
SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN
EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH
SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING
IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE
RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING LOW. GUST APPROACHING 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
AT KRST SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SUSTAINED LIKELY HOVERS NEAR 20 KTS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY. WITH 925 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO REACH 50 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT...LLWS WILL BE A FACTOR AT BOTH KRST
AND KLSE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LLWS WOULD OCCUR FROM 03-18Z
MONDAY. WILL ADD TO FORECAST.
AS FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...WHICH COULD IMPACT KLSE. GOING FOR IT IS THE DECOUPLED
WINDS WITH GOOD DEPTH TO THE LIGHT WIND LAYER THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAP/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THAT TIME...NOT SURE THIS
WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT A FOG RISK. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE ARE PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH...THIN
CLOUDS WOULD BE A DAMPER ON FOG POTENTIAL. SEE A THREAT...BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST...YET. THE
SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL LEAVE BCFG FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1018 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH UVV INCREASING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT OUT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE
ECHOES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD SEE THEM INCREASING
AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PALMER DVD BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF EL PASO COUNTY INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
UPDATED TO TAPER BACK POPS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING
WITH POPS RAMPING BACK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT BASED ON CURRERNT
OBSERVATIONS AND HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT RAN ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS WINDS
HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE 18Z NAM12 AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS BEGIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS BEGIN AT 00Z AND LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG VORT MAX/BEST LIFT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SAN JUANS NORTHEAST THROUGH
PUEBLO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE BAND
SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST EL PASO AND EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SCATTERED POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW IF 00Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING THROUGH COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THIS WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +1C TO +3C DOWN TO -7C TO -9C
BY TUESDAY EVENING (00Z WED). ANY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE AREA
AFTER THAT TIME WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER MONUMENT HILL IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 AND 12Z EC NOW CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS...
THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE GRADUALLY COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL COMES TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE WETS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT AREAS TUESDAY EVENING IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER
FALLS BEFORE THAT. ALSO...THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS OF LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ALL IS DONE...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST A DUSTING OR LESS. LOOKS DRY FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER. THEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY...MILD AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WINDY AS IT APPEARS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND/OR HIGH FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE DAY APPROACHES. THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT FRIDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE STATE WITH
RADAR INDICATING SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS
TIME. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
ADJACENT PLAINS AND OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LEADING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT ALS..COS AND PUB FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON
RUNWAYS WITH WARM ROAD SURFACES...THOUGH MAY SEE UP TO 1/2 INCH OF
SNOW UNDER THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...MAINLY AT ALS AND COS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BETWEEN
12Z-15Z WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15-25KTS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AT
COS AND PUB. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALS
AFT 16Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night
00Z models continue to trend quicker with cold frontal passage Wed
and diminishing/ending showers from west to east during Wed afternoon
over the IL River valley and rest of central and eastern IL Wed
evening. Also have increased chances of light rain showers and
sprinkles today over central IL, with band over se IL shifting
northward during the day and mainly impacting the IL river valley
by late afternoon.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1041 mb high pressure over
Maine New Brunswick Canada and ridging across the Atlantic states
while a cold front extended from 1000 mb low pressure along the
northern Ontario/Manitoba province line through se parts of WI/IA
into nw MO and central KS to 1004 mb low pressure over west
central NM. Warm air advection and isentropic lift had developing
a band of light rain showers and sprinkles over southern MO and se
IL into west central IN during the night. NAM and RUC models shows
this light qpf shifting northward during the day and focused nw of
the IL river by late afternoon. So have increase chances of light
rains showers and sprinkles this morning and shifting into the IL
river valley during the afternoon while eastern IL is trending
drier. Highs today in the lower 60s, except some upper 50s over
the IL river valley where cloudy skies prevail today.
Better forcing into the IL river valley overnight and across rest
of central and eastern IL Wednesday as cold front pushes east
across IL during the day Wednesday. Lows tonight in the lower 50s.
Highs Wed range from mid 50s nw of IL river to the lower 60s over
se IL with breezy conditions expected and wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph possible Wed. Have 80-100% chance of showers across region Wed
morning and then diminish over the IL river valley behind cold
front Wed afternoon and diminish over eastern IL during Wed
evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch across region expected
Wed.
Dry and cooler conditions behind the cold front overnight Wed
night and Thursday and clouds quickly decrease with fair amount of
sunshine expected Thu and highs in the lower 50s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night
More of a zonal upper level flow sets up late this week into the
weekend with generally dry conditions expected. A short wave
moving east into the western great lakes Friday night to give
isolated light rain showers from Galesburg to Lacon north with
most of central IL staying dry. Temps cool a bit Saturday night
and Sunday behind this weather system. Dry conditions look to hold
through Monday night across central and southeast IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
A couple of periods of MVFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours - one during the morning in all of central and eastern IL
and one in central IL late Tuesday evening.
Tracking a weak shortwave moving toward the Ozarks with light rain
and a mix of VFR, MVFR and even IFR ceilings in spots. Still
expecting this to lift toward central IL shortly after daybreak
with showers and generally MVFR ceilings for a few hours during
the morning. Patchy IFR ceilings are being observed in the
ArkLaTex region, so will keep an eye on this to potentially
develop when the shortwave trough approaches. The NAM model is
indicating IFR ceilings for a short period Tuesday morning, but am
not anticipating widespread problems at this time.
In the wake of the shortwave, ceilings are expected to recover to
VFR conditions in the afternoon. All of the models are indicating
an increase in the pressure gradient during the afternoon hours,
so bumped up the winds and added gusts at all locations. The windy
conditions will continue through the evening as low pressure moves
along the slow moving boundary in extreme eastern IA.
Introduced predominant light rain, and MVFR ceilings/visibility,
late Tuesday evening - in the 03-05Z time frame - along and west
of the I-55 corridor. The GFS seems to be quick with its
advancement of the rain Tuesday evening, and the NAM might be a
bit slow, so went with a compromise of the two for timing the rain.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
128 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
217 PM CST
TONIGHT...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE ENTIRE
REGION...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NOTED WITH BUILDING CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DO EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN IL...WITH SOME THIN SHIELDING. SFC WINDS HAVE REMAINED
SOUTHERLY...WITH GOOD MIXING THIS AFTN PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN THE
20-25MPH RANGE. TEMPS HAVE SLOWLY WARMED INTO THE MID 50S...AND MAY
TOUCH 60 DEG SOUTH OF A LASALLE TO KANKAKEE LINE LATER THIS AFTN
PRIOR TO SUNSET.
UPSTREAM AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EXIST...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT
AS THE CHANNEL OF MOISTURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CWFA THAT ANY
CLEARING/THINNING WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS LIKELY INHIBITING MUCH
COOLING OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE MID 40S...AND COULD SEE TEMPS HOVER ARND 50 CLOSER TO
CHICAGO.
EXPECT ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SFC ENVIRONMENT TO DELAY PRECIP
FROM ARRIVING ACROSS THE CWFA UNTIL AFT DAYBREAK TUE.
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...HIGH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
500MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
TUE...AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES NEAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM THE ELONGATED RIDGE
STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY FEED OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE INTO
THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE AND SATURATE THE MOIST CHANNEL THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT A MILD START TO THE DAY...THEN TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM
MUCH BEYOND THE MID 50S TUE AFTN. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...HOWEVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA COULD SEE
TEMPS NEAR 60 DEG. THE MOIST CONVEYOR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
THE CWFA...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO BE MODERATE AT TIMES. HAVE BUMPED
MORE AREAS INTO CATEGORICAL POPS TUE AFTN/NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MILD AS WELL WITH TEMPS NEARLY STEADY
IN THE LOW 50S...PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE UPR 40S.
ALTHOUGH WITH CONTINUED FEED OF WARM/MOIST AIR AND CLOUD COVER THAT
TEMPS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH.
WED WILL FEATURE THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS PIVOTING FURTHER EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE MOIST CHANNEL CONTINUES TO FEED
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWFA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS
FROPA MIDDAY WED...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS TO STEADILY COOL
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OR POST FROPA INTO THE 40S. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FEED IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S WED AFTN. SO HIGH TEMPS WED FOR THE NORTHWEST CWFA
WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MID-LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST WED NIGHT ARRIVING
OVERHEAD OF THE CWFA...WITH BROAD ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW PUSHING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THE LLVLS AND
BRING P-CLOUDY SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB THERMAL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO COOL WED NGT/THUR TO ARND -5 TO -8 DEG C...HOWEVER
EXPECT PRECIP TO END BEFORE IT WOULD BECOME MIXED WITH RA/SN.
FOR THUR TROUGH AXIS SLIDES TO THE EASTERN CWFA...WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LLVLS. EXPECT DRY CONDS FOR THE CWFA...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLY A PORTION OF NORTHWEST INDIANA THAT COULD
SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT SPRINKLES. TEMPS THUR WILL BE MORE SEASONAL IN
THE MID/UPR 40S.
QPF FOR THE MID-WEEK EVENT APPEARS TO BE ABUNDANT. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.7 TO 1.1 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWFA WITHIN A 30-36HR TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING...MEDIUM/HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP...HIGH.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE MINIMAL NOISE AMONGST MEMBERS WITH
THE PAST FEW CYCLES...WHICH POINT TOWARDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEMI-ZONAL SETUP FOR THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE A DRY PERIOD FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...AND MAY CONTINUE INTO SAT. MEANWHILE A WEAK TROUGH MAY SLIDE
INTO THE PAC-NW FRI AND ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION SAT EVENING. AT
THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW QUICK THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWFA SAT/SUN.
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPR 40S TO LOW 50S FOR THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME.
CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM/HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
* TIMING OF ONSET OF STEADY RA TONIGHT
* INCREASING SSE-S WIND LATER AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
WHILE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE SCALE FEATURES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THEY OFFER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS IN THE
FINER SCALE WHICH IS CRITICAL TO FORMULATING POINT FORECASTS
WHICH TAFORS BASICALLY ARE. SOME MODELS WERE ALREADY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM SE KS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID
MS VALLEY BY 05.06Z SO DISCOUNTED THE CONTINUED SPREAD OF THESE
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS INTO THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TODAY.
TREND OF MODELS IS TO CONTINUE TO RE-MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS
TONIGHT BUT INDICATE MINIMAL LIFT IN THIS MOISTURE TO GENERATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT NOR THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...HAVE GONE WITH A PROB30 FOR -SHRA
FIRST PART OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN A TEMPO FOR -RA SECOND
HALF OF THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE RED RIVER TO OVER SE OK LATE THIS EVENING IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE NE AND APPROACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE ACROSS IT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS W
OF THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT E TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES E TO OVER MN AND THE MID
MO VALLEY BY 06.12Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT
AN EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING
OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH TIME.
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A
FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS THIS LOW CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY 06.06Z. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN
THE EVENING WITH GUSTS 20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY MID AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING WEST. RAIN/IFR LIKELY.
THURSDAY...MODERATE NW WINDS...BECOMING VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
236 PM CST
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GALES HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAKE TODAY
IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES
INTO HUDSON BAY...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW TO A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TEXAS
LOW ITSELF LIFTS OVER THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LEAVING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY AND LIGHTER SOUTHWEST
WINDS FOR FRIDAY.
LENNING
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1145 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 840 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Only minor changes made to the hourly forecast grids for sky cover
and temperatures. Otherwise, the current forecast is on target
overnight for mainly cloudy conditions and temperatures only
dropping another 6-8 degrees because of the sky cover.
Weak shortwave in NE Texas is expected to move NE overnight and
NNE Tuesday morning. NAM, RAP and SREF models all indicate that
the best isentropic lift and moisture will be in west central IL,
with eastern IL relatively dry. The 00Z ILX sounding had a lot of
dry air in upper levels (above 10,000 ft), and still a fair amount
of dry air below 5,000 ft. Thus, any rain should hold off until
after daybreak.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
A couple of periods of MVFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours - one during the morning in all of central and eastern IL
and one in central IL late Tuesday evening.
Tracking a weak shortwave moving toward the Ozarks with light rain
and a mix of VFR, MVFR and even IFR ceilings in spots. Still
expecting this to lift toward central IL shortly after daybreak
with showers and generally MVFR ceilings for a few hours during
the morning. Patchy IFR ceilings are being observed in the
ArkLaTex region, so will keep an eye on this to potentially
develop when the shortwave trough approaches. The NAM model is
indicating IFR ceilings for a short period Tuesday morning, but am
not anticipating widespread problems at this time.
In the wake of the shortwave, ceilings are expected to recover to
VFR conditions in the afternoon. All of the models are indicating
an increase in the pressure gradient during the afternoon hours,
so bumped up the winds and added gusts at all locations. The windy
conditions will continue through the evening as low pressure moves
along the slow moving boundary in extreme eastern IA.
Introduced predominant light rain, and MVFR ceilings/visibility,
late Tuesday evening - in the 03-05Z time frame - along and west
of the I-55 corridor. The GFS seems to be quick with its
advancement of the rain Tuesday evening, and the NAM might be a
bit slow, so went with a compromise of the two for timing the rain.
Miller
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 242 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Forecast concerns today are the main precipitation (pcpn)
producing cold front on Wednesday, and a minor front again on
Saturday.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.
Morning upper air shows upper level jet diving south along west US
coast, with a west southwest jet from northern Mexico into MO/IL.
Surface data depicts frontal zone already into central plains,
will stream of moisture from the gulf ahead of the front into MS
River valley. 925mb and 850mb data depicts this flow well, with
good low level jet pushing moisture toward region. Wetern US jet
flow progged to move shortwave into the plains by Tuesday, then
getting the frontal boundary moving. Prog of the frontal movement
and approach of upper system from the west results in a delay of
pcpn entering central IL later in the day Tuesday. Best chances of
pcpn then on Tuesday night through Wednesday, tapering off
Wednesday night. Adjusted QPF slightly with combination of HPCQPF
12z and 18z, adjusting slightly down amounts a bit. Resultant
total storm QPF still in the 1 to 1.3 inch range in the eastern
1/3 of central IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.
High pressure moves in late part of week and then a second cold
front moves through Saturday. Moisture limited with this system,
and so should come through mainly dry over CWA.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
333 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
...Updated for the Synopsis and Short Term Discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper air analysis, and nearly every model reviewed, showed an
upper level trough from eastern Montana to eastern Arizona late
Monday evening. There was an upper level jet at the 250mb level
at 00z, running from about the Baja California area northeastward
right through Kansas and on towards southern Minnesota. This jet
was around 120kts for much of that defined area. Wind speeds near
Kansas settle down to near the 40 to 50kt range at the 500mb
level. There was a 500mb cut off low over central Manitoba,
Canada, with a broad trough back toward southern California. The
low pressure system over Manitoba was even more developed at the
700mb level. The zero isotherm at 700mb was from central Iowa
southwest to northwestern Kansas, then it looped northwesterly
into Northern Colorado. The deep, low pressure system was stacked
nearly vertical down to the 850mb level. There was elevated 850mb
moisture from southwestern Oklahoma through central Kansas. The
lower level flow over the plains was basically southeast,
producing an upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Nearly every model that was looked at, from the HRRR and RUC13, to
the NAM and NamDNG5, to the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS models, showed the
large upper trough approaching western Kansas from the west today.
The models also showed a surface front over southwestern Kansas
moving north this morning this morning as a warm front to near I-70,
then turning back toward the south as a cold front this afternoon.
This frontal boundary will provide plenty of low level lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms today as well as isentropic assent
conditions, and the upper trough will supply plenty of upper level
lift across most of western Kansas. Therefore, high level Pops are
warranted, and nearly all of southwestern Kansas will get some
beneficial rain. Temperatures are a bit challenging. Since we will
be socked in with lower ceilings, I did lower max temperatures
today a couple of degrees, which is more in line with the MET and
MAV guidance products. Besides, our WFO neighbors to our northwest
and west were lower than we had for max temperatures today.
The precipitation should lighten up and become more of a light rain
event around sundown, and then quickly exit to the east. The upper
trough will be moving at a pretty good pace, and the clouds will
leave just as fast. Very cold air is set to enter western Kansas
tonight, and the I expect a hard freeze in a few counties which have
not had a Hard Freeze Warning as of yet. Some spots in my 7 county
Warning have experienced a hard freeze, but not perhaps the entire
county. To the east of the Hard Freeze Warning area, the later
departing precip and clouds will delay cooling as well. Therefore,
lows in LaCrosse and Dodge City areas will be near 30F, with only
mid 30s in the Comanche and Barber county areas. Another day,
perhaps not too far out, will take care of the Hard Freeze warnings
for Dodge and eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper trough axis will be shifted onto the eastern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. As a result low level (850 mb level ECMWF
fields show this) warm air advection and downslope winds will
return to western and central Kansas. Temperatures will be
rebounding from several degrees below zero especially from Hays to
Liberal and westward, so despite warm advection and adiabatic
warming, the heating will be limited. The most sensible models
forecast low to mid 50`s by afternoon with breezy winds and strong
insolation. Surface high pressure then builds southward into Texas
leaving Kansas in the northern edge of the anticyclone. By Thursday
lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains leading
to the development of southerly winds across the area and warm
advection in the boundary layer. A second shortwave will dive
through Nebraska late Friday night, bring a fast moving cold front
over the area again. By the weekend the polar jet lifts to the
northern tier of states in a zonal pattern before buckling by Monday or
Tuesday and forming an amplified ridge across the western 1/3 of
the country. This pattern adds confidence to the current forecast of
dry with a warming trend through the 60`s and increasingly mild
overnights (40`s or generally above freezing) early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
As moisture continues to move up from central Oklahoma, MVFR cigs
will develop early in this taf period. Toward morning, after about
10Z or 11Z, low ifr cigs are likely to develop along with fog with
vsbys in the 3-4sm range. Right around sunrise, lifr conditions
should develop, with areas of ovc001 and 1sm vsbys. There is a
short wave approaching from the west by mid morning Tuesday, and
light rain will move across the tafs. Cigs will improve to around
ovc020 an the visibility will increase into 6sm or better.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 30 52 29 / 80 50 10 0
GCK 58 25 52 27 / 80 40 0 0
EHA 65 28 53 31 / 60 30 0 0
LBL 62 30 53 27 / 70 40 0 0
HYS 56 28 51 28 / 90 50 0 0
P28 59 36 53 30 / 70 60 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ043-
044-063-076-077-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1231 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A COUPLED JET (RIGHT REAR
OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES). A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LIKELY LEADING
TO A SHARP CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OVER THE EAST AND SNOW OVER THE
WEST. TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
FURTHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LIMITED COLD AIR TO PULL SOUTH
AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARMER WATER TEMPS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE REGIONS. THUS...THINKING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IS
COMPLICATED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO HAVE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS A
SITUATION OF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH NEAR SURFACE WARM OR
ISOTHERMAL LAYER...HAVE FOLLOWED 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0
VALUES TO DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR WARMING WILL LIKELY RUN FROM SKANDIA TO IRON
MOUNTAIN.
AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...EXPECT 0.40-1.0 INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH A
FGEN BAND FROM ROUGHLY WATERSMEET TO BARAGA COUNTY. IN THAT
SAME REALM...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS ARE SHIFTING THE QPF
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED FORCING
LOCATIONS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIFT TO BE JUST BELOW THE DGZ WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED QPF
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN SNOW AREAS WOULD EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES AND THAT SITS RIGHT IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME TIME (DUE TO THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING DURING
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -7 TO -9C RANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO DELTA-T VALUES
ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE
7-8KFT RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FORECASTS FOR
THE SNOW BELTS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...SHOWED
DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THEM LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATION OVER THE EAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED OFF SNOW ALOFT FALLING
THROUGH A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...LEANED ON 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR P-TYPE WHICH INDICATES A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. A
LOT OF VARIABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH HOW COLD THE AIR
WILL BE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH MORE THAN
LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1128 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. VFR SEVERAL HOURS
AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH
RAIN DEVELOPING BY 14-18Z. BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
LOWER TO IFR BY 17-20Z. COULD ALSO SEE THE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT KOFK BY 19-21Z...BECOMING ALL SNOW THERE BY 23Z. COULD SEE
THE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW AT KOMA/KLNK BY 06/04-06.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS OVERALL
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BIG QUESTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WILL BE WHETHER ANY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP SOUTH OF
I80 WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND
4-5000 FEET WERE LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA. BEST TIMING
WOULD BE AFTER 4 AM...THUS MADE SOME MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.
DOUBT ANY PRECIP WOULD DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY NOON ON TUESDAY...WITH LATEST RUN
OF THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGESTING A LITTLE SLOWER ONSET...WHICH
WOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NE/SD BORDER MAY BE ALL SNOW FROM THE ONSET...AND NE/KS/MO
BORDER REGION WILL BE ALL RAIN.
ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON
LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. ONE QUESTION WOULD BE WHETHER THE NORFOLK AND
WAYNE METRO AREAS WOULD NEED TO BE INCLUDED. RIGHT NOW...WE ONLY
HAVE ONE TO TWO INCHES FORECAST FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES. 00Z NAM
WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER GFS/SREF STILL
INDICATING SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS. WILL LET THE NEXT FORECASTER
LOOK AT ALL MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THE 3 AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
DEWALD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHERE
WILL THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE...AMOUNTS...AND IF HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED.
THE 12Z H5 PATTERN HAD CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND A
SECOND TRAILING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. THIS
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DID DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NORTH WINDS HAD MADE IT TO NEBRASKA CITY AND RED OAK BY
20Z. THE BEST LIFT WITH THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE TROF HAD SHIFTED WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA...WISCONSIN AND IOWA.
THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT H5 TROF THAT EXTENDS FROM MONTANA
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. ORGANIZES OVER COLORADO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE
FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. 12Z NAM/GFS BEGIN
TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...AN H7/H85 40KT SPEED MAX TRAVELS FROM
WESTERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. OMEGA/FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH THE POTENT MID LEVEL TROF. BY
18Z THE NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. H85 TEMPERATURES AND POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SNOW IS MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST OF NELIGH TO WAYNE...WITH
THE NELIGH TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE AREA BEING A TRANSITION ZONE DURING
THE DAY WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AND RAIN LIKELY FARTHER
SOUTH. SOME INSTABILITY DOES WORK INTO THE SOUTH AND WITH SUCH A
DYNAMIC SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE THUNDER EVEN FARTHER
NORTH.
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE A SOLID 3 TO 4 G/KG AND HAVE WATER
EQUIVALENTS BETWEEN .6 AND .8 ON AN INCH. THE GROUND IS STILL
WARM...HOWEVER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
FURTHER. FOR NOW HAVE 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS MENTIONED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOME LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO A
DAVID CITY...MACY LINE THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW AREA BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES IS FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DOES SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS HAVE A BAND OF HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS ALIGNED FROM WAHOO THROUGH TEKAMAH TOWARD HARLAN IOWA.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN IOWA DURING THE
EVENING...AND DIMINISHING FURTHER AFTER 06Z. AS THE FORCING
WEAKENS...CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A RAIN SNOW
MIX AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WORKS IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUES THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
AND SURFACE LOW BOTH LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH...IN CASE IT STARTS TO SLIDE FURTHER SOUTH AND
BRING SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST IOWA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BEFORE THE DRY COLD FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS A COOL-DOWN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD THEN MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ011-012-016-017-030.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
327 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AND
EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST. EARLIER MODEL
RUNS HAD SUGGESTED A MARINE LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER
06Z ACROSS NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVER EASTERN MAINE NOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO THIS HAPPENING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING ANY LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OCEAN MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS
WESTWARD OR INLAND NEAR NYC. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND BY THIS POINT IN THE NIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA BY 06Z. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC WHICH
CAPTURES THIS MOISTURE WELL AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH LOW CLOUDS CLOSER TO 12Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
HI CLDS ARE TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN
DESPITE THE STRONG SFC RDGG. BELIEVE THESE CLDS WILL CONT TO ERODE
AS THE RDG BLDS ALOFT ON TUE. OTR CNCRN OVRNGT IS THE RETURN FLOW
ARND THE BOTTOM OF THE HI AND THE MARINE MOISTURE WITH IT. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE THE DVLPMT OF SOME LOW CLDS OVER THE NEPA ZONES TNGT
WITH THE LL MOISTURE...BUT THE WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT AFT SUNRISE.
THE HI CLDS TO THE WEST AND THE LOW CLDS TO THE SOUTH WILL IMPACT
OVRNGT LOWS AND GRNL XPCT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD 10F HIER TNGT THAN
LAST. MOS GUID IN RSNBLE AGREEMENT IN THE LOWS WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS IN THE LWR 20S BY TUE MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI VERY SLOWLY EDGES EAST THRU WED BUT UPR HGTS CONT TO BLDS
AHD OF THE NEXT WV. AIR WILL CONT TO MODERATE WITH RDGS RCHG INTO
THE UPR 50S AND LWR 60S WED AFTN. MARINE ST TUE MRNG WILL NOT BE A
PRBLM WED AS THE FLOW BECOMES DEEP SWLY PUSHING THAT LL MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST.
FNT APCHS AND PASSES THU. SOME LGT RAIN MAY BRK OUT OVER THE WEST
WED NGT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHD OF THE FNT
ON THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND WLD HAVE THE FNT
PASS THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THU. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA NEARER THE UPR WV...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE
FNT MAY PASS DRY. WILL KEEP IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THU..,.BUT CERTAINLY EVERYONE
WILL SEE SOME RAIN ON THU.
CAA AND DRY AIR IS STRONG ON THU BHD THE FNT...BUT ANY LE SHD WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE SHRT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
325 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST BASED ON LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE AND OPERATIONAL RUNS. PREV THINKING ON TRACK AS PER
BLO...
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN ACTIVE
JETSTREAM REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THAT
SAID...EXPECT DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...850
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO NEAR -7C WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A DECENT
RESPONSE FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. QUICK LOOK
AT SEVERAL GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RA/SN MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TOWARDS EARLY FRI MORNING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES INTO THE
REGION...WITH FAIR/DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COMPACT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
EJECT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR
NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM NEARS...WITH MAIN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUN. AS FEATURE ROLES THROUGH...EXPECT RA SHWRS ON SUN BEFORE
PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO A MIX SUN NGT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST
AND LOW LVL S TO SE FLOW. BKN CI DECK WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDA...BUT MVFR DECK PSBL 10-14Z AT AVP. THESE MVFR CIGS SHUD BREAK
UP BY LATE MRNG. EAST WINDS THIS MRNG AT SYR/RME...OTRW SRLY FLOW
10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT AND WED MORN...POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KBGM/KAVP...WITH
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE.
WED AFTN AND NGT...VFR.
THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS (LWR END MVFR/PSBL IFR) SEEM
LIKELY IN SHWRS.
THU NGT AND FRI...MVFR IN MIXED SHOWERS IN NY. AVP VFR.
SAT...RETURN TO VFR REGION-WIDE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1228 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BRINGING SUNNY DAYS AND MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHTS.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AND
EXPECT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS BACK TO OUR WEST. EARLIER MODEL
RUNS HAD SUGGESTED A MARINE LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AFTER
06Z ACROSS NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY. THE POSITION OF THE
HIGH OVER EASTERN MAINE NOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO THIS HAPPENING.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING ANY LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE OCEAN MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH LITTLE TO NO PROGRESS
WESTWARD OR INLAND NEAR NYC. I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME PROGRESS
INLAND BY THIS POINT IN THE NIGHT IF WE WERE TO SEE CLOUDS FOR OUR
AREA BY 06Z. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL FOLLOW THE LATEST RUC WHICH
CAPTURES THIS MOISTURE WELL AND ONLY BRUSHES OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA
WITH LOW CLOUDS CLOSER TO 12Z. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...
HI CLDS ARE TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS AFTN
DESPITE THE STRONG SFC RDGG. BELIEVE THESE CLDS WILL CONT TO ERODE
AS THE RDG BLDS ALOFT ON TUE. OTR CNCRN OVRNGT IS THE RETURN FLOW
ARND THE BOTTOM OF THE HI AND THE MARINE MOISTURE WITH IT. BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE THE DVLPMT OF SOME LOW CLDS OVER THE NEPA ZONES TNGT
WITH THE LL MOISTURE...BUT THE WILL RAPIDLY MIX OUT AFT SUNRISE.
THE HI CLDS TO THE WEST AND THE LOW CLDS TO THE SOUTH WILL IMPACT
OVRNGT LOWS AND GRNL XPCT TEMPS TO BE A GOOD 10F HIER TNGT THAN
LAST. MOS GUID IN RSNBLE AGREEMENT IN THE LOWS WITH THE COLDEST
SPOTS IN THE LWR 20S BY TUE MRNG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HI VERY SLOWLY EDGES EAST THRU WED BUT UPR HGTS CONT TO BLDS
AHD OF THE NEXT WV. AIR WILL CONT TO MODERATE WITH RDGS RCHG INTO
THE UPR 50S AND LWR 60S WED AFTN. MARINE ST TUE MRNG WILL NOT BE A
PRBLM WED AS THE FLOW BECOMES DEEP SWLY PUSHING THAT LL MOISTURE
WELL TO THE EAST.
FNT APCHS AND PASSES THU. SOME LGT RAIN MAY BRK OUT OVER THE WEST
WED NGT BUT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND JUST AHD OF THE FNT
ON THU. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND WLD HAVE THE FNT
PASS THRU MUCH OF THE AREA BY 18Z THU. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA NEARER THE UPR WV...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH THE
FNT MAY PASS DRY. WILL KEEP IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THU..,.BUT CERTAINLY EVERYONE
WILL SEE SOME RAIN ON THU.
CAA AND DRY AIR IS STRONG ON THU BHD THE FNT...BUT ANY LE SHD WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE SHRT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS AN ACTIVE
JETSTREAM REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. THAT
SAID...EXPECT DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS EARLY AS THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...850
TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO NEAR -7C WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A DECENT
RESPONSE FOR FAVORED LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. QUICK LOOK
AT SEVERAL GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DOES SHOW GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RA/SN MIX AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TOWARDS EARLY FRI MORNING FOR LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSES INTO THE
REGION...WITH FAIR/DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...ANOTHER COMPACT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
EJECT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE CONSOLIDATING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TRAVELING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. FOR
NOW...PRECIP LOOKS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM NEARS...WITH MAIN COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUN. AS FEATURE ROLES THROUGH...EXPECT RA SHWRS ON SUN BEFORE
PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO A MIX SUN NGT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA. THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS FCST PD WITH HI PRES OFF THE MID ATLC CST
AND LOW LVL S TO SE FLOW. BKN CI DECK WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TDA...BUT MVFR DECK PSBL 10-14Z AT AVP. THESE MVFR CIGS SHUD BREAK
UP BY LATE MRNG. EAST WINDS THIS MRNG AT SYR/RME...OTRW SRLY FLOW
10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT AND WED MORN...POTNL FOR MVFR CIGS AT KBGM/KAVP...WITH
MAINLY VFR ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL SE FLOW BRINGING IN ATLANTIC
MOISTURE.
WED AFTN AND NGT...VFR.
THU...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS (LWR END MVFR/PSBL IFR) SEEM
LIKELY IN SHWRS.
THU NGT AND FRI...MVFR IN MIXED SHOWERS IN NY. AVP VFR.
SAT...RETURN TO VFR REGION-WIDE.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...CMG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
106 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND FAR
SOUTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THIS AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA NOW THROUGH 18Z...PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH...AND CLEAR
IN BETWEEN. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS SOUTH...KEPT TEMPERATURES
STEADY TO SLIGHTLY RISING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES
RIVER BASIN NOW THROUGH 12Z. COLD WEST UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH.
OVERALL...EDITS WITH THIS EARLY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE WERE MINOR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
AREA OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 FROM EARLIER
IS THINNING AND LIFTING A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z NAM AND RAP13
MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT HIGH RH ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT IN THIS AREA
BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING IT OUT TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN SKY CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL OF THESE TRENDS HANDLED
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 536 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS
PRETTY MUCH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RUC13 KEEPS THIS AREA
INTACT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND EVEN SAGS IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE BUT DOES KEEP HIGH RH ACROSS
THIS AREA. WILL MONITOR THE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. WITH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 925MB-H85
LAYER...THERE SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF MOVEMENT SOUTH BUT AGREE THAT
THE AREA WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.
MINOR UPDATE TO THE SKY GRIDS IN KEEPING THE ABOVE AREA IN LONGER
AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME TRENDS DEVELOP.
REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS DOING WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WAS
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST. SUBSIDENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS
LOW WAS CLEARING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL RATHER QUICKLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRYING DEWPOINTS FROM WESTERLY SUBSIDING FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE WEST TO AROUND
20 NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER. ON TUESDAY...LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US WILL MOVE EAST BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NORTH DAKOTA ONLY SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH IS EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY N THE 30S NORTH TO AROUND 40
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIODS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AS IT TRACKS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED THE RESULTING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MISS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT WE WILL REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...AND HIGHS
WEDNESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S.
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM
AIR TO LOWER AND MID LEVELS...BUT SURFACE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
PROGGED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT TIMING...BUT THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BE IN
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY
MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME EITHER ALL RAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S...THEN BECOME SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS BOTH SURFACE AND MID-LEVELS
COOL QUICKLY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT WARM-UP
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
SCT LOW VFR TO BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE MAINLY PUSHES EAST OF KMOT.
INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER KBIS-KJMS.
OTHERWISE...ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT
24HRS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH/KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AMARILLO TX
1203 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND PRECIPITATION TIMING. HOWEVER, FLIGHT CATEGORY
TIMING IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AT KAMA, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY 09Z-17Z
WITH POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS 11Z-13Z. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT INTO
MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 17Z WITH VFR BRIEFLY RETURNING AFTER 19Z. WE SAY
BRIEFLY BECAUSE A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND
0130Z, AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS. -SHRA AND
POSSIBLY -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE 11Z-15Z. EVEN IF THIS DOESN`T
MATERIALIZE, DZ WILL BE LIKELY 01Z-17Z. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY
AFTER 0130Z.
AT KDHT, -TSRA/VCTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTERWARD,
VCSH/DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP 09Z- 16Z, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFR 12Z-14Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z, WITH BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING 19Z-2230Z. AFTER 2230Z, A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINAL, RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY, -SHRA COULD ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINAL
AGAIN 23Z-02Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
AT KGUY, FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE DETERIORATING INTO IFR CATEGORY
10Z-17Z, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS 11Z-14Z. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 17Z, BUT WE THINK
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE 07Z-10Z, AND VCSH/DZ WILL BE POSSIBLE
10Z-17Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 2130Z,
RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, -SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE 22Z-04Z. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE OF -SN 02Z-04Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION.
JACKSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...INCREASING POPS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VORTICITY MAXIMA IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT AS WARM
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.
COCKRELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.
AT KAMA, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR CATEGORY
AFTER 05Z AND INTO IFR CATEGORY 09Z-17Z; CONDITIONS COULD BE AS LOW
AS VLIFR BRIEFLY DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. MVFR WILL RETURN AFTER 17Z,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND 20Z. THERE COULD BE VCSH OR EVEN
DZ 09Z-17Z.
AT KDHT, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 05Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 09Z-16Z; A BRIEF DETERIORATION TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
CAN`T BE RULED OUT DURING THIS PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
AFTER 16Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 19Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL 05Z-09Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 09Z-16Z. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINAL AFTER 23Z, BUT WE DIDN`T BRING IT THROUGH SINCE
IT`S AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
AT KGUY, MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 07Z AND DROP INTO
IFR CATEGORY 11Z-16Z; BRIEF VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD STICK AROUND AFTER 16Z
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WE`LL RAISE THEM INTO VFR
AFTER 20Z. -RA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL 07Z-11Z WITH VCSH OR DZ 11Z-
16Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AFTER 22Z, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF -RA MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AFTER 22Z, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW.
JACKSON
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STATE OF THE FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PANHANDLES REMAIN LOCKED
IN DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FRONT. THIS WILL BE A
BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 3 HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHILE LEAVING PERCENTAGES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS CLOSER THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN. INCREASED POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THE RECENT TREND OF HIGHER POPS FURTHER
WEST AS SHOWN IN THE HRRR RUC.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS POPS AND STRUCTURE
BUT SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE TREND THIS SEASON OF
NOCTURNAL COLD FRONTS MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS MUCH
SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER THE INITIAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE TIME FRAME FOR A THE NEXT WIDESPREAD
KILLING FREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT OR 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
JC/JJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1004 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY...IFR CIGS PSBL.
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS ARND 25KT.
* ADDITIONAL RA WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. LIFR CIGS PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
ADJUSTED TAFS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR RUN.
THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MORE STEADY SHOWERS MOVE IN
LATE THIS AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THINKING LOWER CIGS WILL
MOVE IN WITH THE PRECIP. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE TIED TO PRECIP
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE A FEW DRY HOURS THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING A BIT TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR...BUT RAIN
RETURNS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR VSBY ARE
STILL EXPECTED. IFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED SW-NE FROM
NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO
TO CENTRAL IL TODAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS DO SHOW A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BACK UP
TO VFR. THE RAIN WITH THE MO DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR
THE MOST PART SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT EAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST TO
OVER MN AND THE MID MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE BECAME WEAK OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY LATE THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS....MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
EXACT HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
820 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* MVFR CIGS SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING.
* SCATTERED SHRA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY...IFR CIGS PSBL.
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS ARND 25KT.
* ADDITIONAL RA WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. LIFR CIGS PSBL.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
ADJUSTED TAFS TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR RUN.
THINKING MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS AFTN. MORE STEADY SHOWERS MOVE IN
LATE THIS AFTN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THINKING LOWER CIGS WILL
MOVE IN WITH THE PRECIP. LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE TIED TO PRECIP
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH RIGHT NOW. SHOULD SEE A FEW DRY HOURS THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS LIFTING A BIT TO MVFR OR LOW END VFR...BUT RAIN
RETURNS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MVFR VSBY ARE
STILL EXPECTED. IFR OR LOWER CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...12Z...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED SW-NE FROM
NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO
TO CENTRAL IL TODAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS DO SHOW A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BACK UP
TO VFR. THE RAIN WITH THE MO DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR
THE MOST PART SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT EAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST TO
OVER MN AND THE MID MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE BECAME WEAK OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY LATE THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS....MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
EXACT HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
608 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING NORTH THIS MORNING
* POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON
* TIMING OF ONSET OF STEADY RA TONIGHT
* INCREASING SSE-S WIND LATER AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
EARLY THIS MORNING A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS EXTENDED SW-NE FROM
NORTHERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY INCREASING THIS MORNING AND A CONTINUATION OF THE RAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO
TO CENTRAL IL TODAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING. LOW
LEVEL RH PROGS DO SHOW A TEMPORARY DRYING OF THE LOWER LEVELS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO HAVE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS BACK UP
TO VFR. THE RAIN WITH THE MO DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FOR
THE MOST PART SOUTH OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS TODAY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINALS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN SLIDE IT EAST AND OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WI AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN IL OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST TO
OVER MN AND THE MID MO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND ACCOMPANYING LOWERING OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
TIME.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THE BECAME WEAK OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ACROSS KS ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TO NE IA-SW WI BY LATE THIS
EVENING. IN RESPONSE SSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
20-25KT EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO VEER SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING TO A MORE TRUE S WIND.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF RAIN CHANCES.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY MID AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night
00Z models continue to trend quicker with cold frontal passage Wed
and diminishing/ending showers from west to east during Wed afternoon
over the IL River valley and rest of central and eastern IL Wed
evening. Also have increased chances of light rain showers and
sprinkles today over central IL, with band over se IL shifting
northward during the day and mainly impacting the IL river valley
by late afternoon.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1041 mb high pressure over
Maine New Brunswick Canada and ridging across the Atlantic states
while a cold front extended from 1000 mb low pressure along the
northern Ontario/Manitoba province line through se parts of WI/IA
into nw MO and central KS to 1004 mb low pressure over west
central NM. Warm air advection and isentropic lift had developing
a band of light rain showers and sprinkles over southern MO and se
IL into west central IN during the night. NAM and RUC models shows
this light qpf shifting northward during the day and focused nw of
the IL river by late afternoon. So have increase chances of light
rains showers and sprinkles this morning and shifting into the IL
river valley during the afternoon while eastern IL is trending
drier. Highs today in the lower 60s, except some upper 50s over
the IL river valley where cloudy skies prevail today.
Better forcing into the IL river valley overnight and across rest
of central and eastern IL Wednesday as cold front pushes east
across IL during the day Wednesday. Lows tonight in the lower 50s.
Highs Wed range from mid 50s nw of IL river to the lower 60s over
se IL with breezy conditions expected and wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph possible Wed. Have 80-100% chance of showers across region Wed
morning and then diminish over the IL river valley behind cold
front Wed afternoon and diminish over eastern IL during Wed
evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch across region expected
Wed.
Dry and cooler conditions behind the cold front overnight Wed
night and Thursday and clouds quickly decrease with fair amount of
sunshine expected Thu and highs in the lower 50s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night
More of a zonal upper level flow sets up late this week into the
weekend with generally dry conditions expected. A short wave
moving east into the western great lakes Friday night to give
isolated light rain showers from Galesburg to Lacon north with
most of central IL staying dry. Temps cool a bit Saturday night
and Sunday behind this weather system. Dry conditions look to hold
through Monday night across central and southeast IL.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
A storm system is expected to impact the central Illinois
terminals through the 12Z TAF valid time. A lead wave of light
rain will lift north across the area mainly this morning,
accompanied by a period of MVFR cigs. Most of the terminals should
return to VFR conditions behind the initial rainfall, although KPIA
may stay lower due to its closer proximity to the approaching system.
The rainfall will gradually become more widespread tonight as the
system draws closer. This will have MVFR or possibly IFR
conditions becoming widespread as well.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
537 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper air analysis, and nearly every model reviewed, showed an
upper level trough from eastern Montana to eastern Arizona late
Monday evening. There was an upper level jet at the 250mb level
at 00z, running from about the Baja California area northeastward
right through Kansas and on towards southern Minnesota. This jet
was around 120kts for much of that defined area. Wind speeds near
Kansas settle down to near the 40 to 50kt range at the 500mb
level. There was a 500mb cut off low over central Manitoba,
Canada, with a broad trough back toward southern California. The
low pressure system over Manitoba was even more developed at the
700mb level. The zero isotherm at 700mb was from central Iowa
southwest to northwestern Kansas, then it looped northwesterly
into Northern Colorado. The deep, low pressure system was stacked
nearly vertical down to the 850mb level. There was elevated 850mb
moisture from southwestern Oklahoma through central Kansas. The
lower level flow over the plains was basically southeast,
producing an upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Nearly every model that was looked at, from the HRRR and RUC13, to
the NAM and NamDNG5, to the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS models, showed the
large upper trough approaching western Kansas from the west today.
The models also showed a surface front over southwestern Kansas
moving north this morning this morning as a warm front to near I-70,
then turning back toward the south as a cold front this afternoon.
This frontal boundary will provide plenty of low level lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms today as well as isentropic assent
conditions, and the upper trough will supply plenty of upper level
lift across most of western Kansas. Therefore, high level Pops are
warranted, and nearly all of southwestern Kansas will get some
beneficial rain. Temperatures are a bit challenging. Since we will
be socked in with lower ceilings, I did lower max temperatures
today a couple of degrees, which is more in line with the MET and
MAV guidance products. Besides, our WFO neighbors to our northwest
and west were lower than we had for max temperatures today.
The precipitation should lighten up and become more of a light rain
event around sundown, and then quickly exit to the east. The upper
trough will be moving at a pretty good pace, and the clouds will
leave just as fast. Very cold air is set to enter western Kansas
tonight, and the I expect a hard freeze in a few counties which have
not had a Hard Freeze Warning as of yet. Some spots in my 7 county
Warning have experienced a hard freeze, but not perhaps the entire
county. To the east of the Hard Freeze Warning area, the later
departing precip and clouds will delay cooling as well. Therefore,
lows in LaCrosse and Dodge City areas will be near 30F, with only
mid 30s in the Comanche and Barber county areas. Another day,
perhaps not too far out, will take care of the Hard Freeze warnings
for Dodge and eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper trough axis will be shifted onto the eastern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. As a result low level (850 mb level ECMWF
fields show this) warm air advection and downslope winds will
return to western and central Kansas. Temperatures will be
rebounding from several degrees below zero especially from Hays to
Liberal and westward, so despite warm advection and adiabatic
warming, the heating will be limited. The most sensible models
forecast low to mid 50`s by afternoon with breezy winds and strong
insolation. Surface high pressure then builds southward into Texas
leaving Kansas in the northern edge of the anticyclone. By Thursday
lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains leading
to the development of southerly winds across the area and warm
advection in the boundary layer. A second shortwave will dive
through Nebraska late Friday night, bring a fast moving cold front
over the area again. By the weekend the polar jet lifts to the
northern tier of states in a zonal pattern before buckling by Monday or
Tuesday and forming an amplified ridge across the western 1/3 of
the country. This pattern adds confidence to the current forecast of
dry with a warming trend through the 60`s and increasingly mild
overnights (40`s or generally above freezing) early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Numerous thunderstorms with ceilings between 400-1000 ft will
continue between KDDC and KHYS this morning. A cold front will move
into the Terminals in the afternoon, bringing a northwest shift in
the wind directions and another round of thunderstorms ahead of the
boundary, especially near HYS and DDC again. With light easterly
upslope flow and a moist boundary layer from recent rains fog
development is possible.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 30 52 29 / 80 50 10 0
GCK 58 25 52 27 / 80 40 0 0
EHA 65 28 53 31 / 60 30 0 0
LBL 62 30 53 27 / 70 40 0 0
HYS 56 28 51 28 / 90 50 0 0
P28 59 36 53 30 / 70 60 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ043-
044-063-076-077-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
717 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NW ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOC 999 MB SFC LOW IS HELPING
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO
NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE 140+ KT 250-300 MB JET MOVING OVER ONTARIO AND
800-700 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN UPPER MI
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN
UPPER MI ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT
FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS TROF AND NOSING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES). STRONG 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND 800-700 MB FGEN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS THERMAL GRADIENT AND RAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO
DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANGE FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL FALLS
TO NEGAUNEE. EAST OF THIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY
THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GREATLY LIMITING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 0.50-0.90 INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE WRN CWA AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
8-9/1 THROUGH MUCH OF EVENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF
CRYSTAL FALLS AND NEGAUNEE AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARQUETTE-IRON COUNTIES
WESTWARD EXCLUDING NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR AND IFR RESPECTIVELY AT KCMX AND KSAW IN RAIN AND DEVELOPING NE
FLOW. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD LOWER TO IFR AT KIWD AS COLDER AIR CHANGES
PCPN OVER TO MAINLY SNOW THERE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO TODAY...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THIS MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NW ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOC 999 MB SFC LOW IS HELPING
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO
NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE 140+ KT 250-300 MB JET MOVING OVER ONTARIO AND
800-700 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN UPPER MI
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN
UPPER MI ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT
FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS TROF AND NOSING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES). STRONG 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND 800-700 MB FGEN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS THERMAL GRADIENT AND RAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO
DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANGE FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL FALLS
TO NEGAUNEE. EAST OF THIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY
THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GREATLY LIMITING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 0.50-0.90 INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE WRN CWA AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
8-9/1 THROUGH MUCH OF EVENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF
CRYSTAL FALLS AND NEGAUNEE AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARQUETTE-IRON COUNTIES
WESTWARD EXCLUDING NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO TODAY...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THIS MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
506 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 505 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
PRELIMINARY LONG TERM DISCUSSION. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL
BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
SLOWEST. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE
BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI WILL QUICKLY EXIT E
WEDNESDAY. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER
TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF 6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT
18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT 00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE
NE THROUGH THE DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK
TO THE FAR E TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR
FINALLY WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY
COOLING TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE BEST/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING
DENDRITIC CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH
HEAVY BURSTS OF SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES DURING THE DAY. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM THE WRN TAF SITES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO AND AT KSAW BY 08Z AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THESE LOWER CIGS CLEAR WOULD EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE AND IDEAL
WIND DIRECTION FOR STRONGER GUSTS. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES TUE NIGHT
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN RETURNING TO ALL SITES. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT KIWD BY LATE TUE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/JV
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
618 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED...BETTER REPRESENTED THE CURRENT LACK OF CLOUD COVER OVER
THE LAKE THEN BLENDED THAT THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
GRIDS. ON BALANCE STILL EXPECT CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKE THIS
MORNING BUT THIN -A BIT- ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...RADAR DOES SHOW LIGHT RAIN MOVING NNE INTO WEST CENTRAL
OHIO. HRRR SHOWED THIS AND MODELS DO SHOW A TONGUE OF MOISTURE
HOWEVER WAS THINKING MODELS MIGHT BE OVERSTATING A BIT BUT LOOKS
LIKE A SLIGHT CHANCE IS WARRANTED FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WEST. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. WILL START OUT TODAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODELS SHOW SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
SS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THERE. HIGHS BASICALLY 55 TO 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TODAY
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN GFS AND NAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE DEEP
MOISTURE BEING JUST WEST OF THE AREA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOSE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW CHANCE POP NORTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS WEST HALF OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON DROPPING TO CHANCE POPS EAST. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS ALL
AREAS. BY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS SHOWING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE GFS TAKING THE DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z WHILE THE
NAM A A BIT SLOWER. WILL SIDE WITH THE SLOWER NAM AND CONTINUE
WITH MORNING POPS EAST. BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY 850MB
TEMPS DROP TO -4 TO -6C OVER THE LAKE. WITH THE SIGNIFICANT COLD
ADVECTION EXPECT THE LAKE TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN WITH A GOOD SHOT
OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE BOTH RAIN AND
SNOW MENTIONED WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WHICH
SHOULD SHUT OFF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP SO WILL GO DRY. HIGHS 55 TO 60
TODAY AND IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THURSDAY HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
HOLDING HIGHS IN THE 40S MOST PLACES GIVEN THE CONTINUING COLD
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. FRIDAY WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS THE
HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S FOR HIGHS
HOWEVER MOST PLACES WITH HIGHS NEAR 50 WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
SATURDAY NIGHT....BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.
CRITICAL THICKNESSES SHOULD REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
PRECIP ALL RAIN. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE 850 MB TEMPS
DIPPING TO MINUS 4C ON SUNDAY COULD WELL SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
NON- VFR MAY LINGER NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAKE ERIE TODAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE FRONT AS WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR15 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. MODELS CONTINUE TO
MOVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STRONGER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THEN YDY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY BY
SUNDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
810 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH ENDED ACROSS SE WYOMING AND CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. WILL CLEAR OUT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SE WY BUT LEAVE A BIT LONGER OVER THE
PANHANDLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED/REMOVED POPS AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER
OVER SE WYOMING WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS
CURRENT PUSHING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SWEETWATER AND
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS PUSHED EASTWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED
AROUND RAWLINS. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL IT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG WITH LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW HAS RECENTLY STARTED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK...ALTHOUGH TWEAKED THE TIMING OF
THE ADVISORY IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING
WESTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING 110 KT JET MAX
ALOFT...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAY NEED
HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF I80 AND I25 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GFS MOS SHOWS
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH
PLAINS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS 10 KNOTS TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS BUT
FAILED TO COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH STABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A VIGOROUS JET...KEPT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB WINDS SPIKE UP TO 50KTS AT 06Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 18Z. WILL LIKELY BE IN WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THAT
TIME...AT THE VERY LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
SEE A SMALL LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THEY DO PICK UP AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS FINALLY START TO COME DOWN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS
UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MAYBE SOME 60S BY
MONDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SLOW IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS DOWN THROUGH 18Z. ONCE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN...WE
SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
425 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE LARAMIE VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO LARAMIE COUNTY. AS EXPECTED...LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE RESULTING IN DRIER AIR
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THESE AREAS THIS MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY
RANGE...AND GOSHEN/NIOBRARA COUNTIES TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS
CURRENT PUSHING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SWEETWATER AND
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS PUSHED EASTWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED
AROUND RAWLINS. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL IT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG WITH LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW HAS RECENTLY STARTED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK...ALTHOUGH TWEAKED THE TIMING OF
THE ADVISORY IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING
WESTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING 110 KT JET MAX
ALOFT...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAY NEED
HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF I80 AND I25 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GFS MOS SHOWS
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH
PLAINS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS 10 KNOTS TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS BUT
FAILED TO COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH STABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A VIGOROUS JET...KEPT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB WINDS SPIKE UP TO 50KTS AT 06Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 18Z. WILL LIKELY BE IN WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THAT
TIME...AT THE VERY LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
SEE A SMALL LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THEY DO PICK UP AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS FINALLY START TO COME DOWN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS
UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MAYBE SOME 60S BY
MONDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SLOW IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS DOWN THROUGH 18Z. ONCE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN...WE
SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ102-
108-112-114.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ002-
003-019>021-054-055-095-096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...BREEZY TO WINDY WITH HAZARDOUS SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION
THROUGH WED MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...
THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS PUSHING INTO THE W ATLC AS OF MID AFTN...GFS
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CENTER HAS LOST BTWN 3-4MB OF SFC PRES SINCE
MIDDAY. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS H1000 AND H925 WINDS BTWN
20-25KTS...CONFIRMED BY THE KMLB/KTBW/KJAX VAD WIND PROFILERS. MOST
SFC/OCEAN OBS REFLECTING THE DECREASE AS WELL AS SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED A TOUCH SINCE PEAKING EARLIER THIS MRNG.
WHILE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED...THEY STILL HAVE TO SPIN DOWN
FROM A HIGH LVL. AS SUCH...BREEZY/WINDY CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU
SUNSET BEFORE DROPPING BACK. SOME GUSTS ABV 20MPH MAY PERSIST ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE ABLE TO DROP THE WIND
AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES ON SCHEDULE (SEE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
SECTION).
LATEST BEACH OBS INDICATE NO DUNE BREACHES OCCURRED WITH THE LATEST
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...WHILE STILL HIGH...ARE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND AS WELL. TIDE HAS EBBED AND WILL REBUILD THROUGH 9PM
THIS EVNG. BUOY OBS STILL SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF WAVE ENERGY OVER
THE LCL ATLC...AND WITH STEADY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING...WILL KEEP
THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY/COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONFIG IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE
DROPPED LATER THIS EVNG SHOULD NO ADDITIONAL DUNE EROSION OCCUR.
REGARDLESS...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO WED MRNG FOR
ALL COUNTIES.
THE DEEP AND STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAP A FAIRLY MOIST
LOW LVL AIRMASS OVER THE SW ATLC...H100-H85 MEAN RH VALUES LARGELY
AOB 75PCT. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVERHEAD WILL PREVENT ANY
DEEP CONVECTION FROM DVLPG...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLD/SCT LOW-TOPPED ATLC SHRAS TO PUSH ACRS THE
EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA THRU THE PD. IMPACT WILL BE LIMITED TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN...QPF AOB 0.10".
WITH THE AIRMASS BLO H85 NOW MORE OR LESS FULLY MODIFIED AND STEADY
WINDS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE ABV AVG WITH MINS IN THE M/U60S
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND L/M70S ALONG THE COAST...WED AFTN
MAXES IN THE L/M80S.
WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY
OVERNIGHT WED AND THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY
FROM FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BACKING WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WED AND REMAIN OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THU. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND THE BREAKING OF THE MID LEVEL CAP POP REMAIN
LOW...AROUND 20 PERCENT...DUE TO THE SLOW MOISTURE RECOVERY.
HIGHS LOW AND MID 80S. LOWS MID 60S INTERIOR AND NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL TO THE UPPER 60S AND AROUND 70S AT THE COAST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE AND WESTERN MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES.
FRI-SUN (MODIFIED)... GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER
THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
FRI WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL
CWA BUT MAINTAIN MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE
FLOW. FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT FRI-SUN.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 06/18Z...ERLY SFC WND G22-27KTS ALL SITES BCMG E/NE G18-23KTS
CSTL SITES S OF KTIX AFT 06/00Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060
WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD/SCT SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...WIND EVENT HAS PEAKED AS OBS FROM THE DATA
BUOYS/C-MAN STATIONS OVER THE PAST SVRL HRS SHOW A CLEAR DOWNWARD
TREND...SUSTAINED WINDS NOW AOB 20KTS WITH GUSTS AOB 25KTS...SEAS
STILL RATHER TREACHEROUS AT 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 9-12FT OFFSHORE WITH
DOMINANT PDS 9-10SEC. SFC PGRAD BTWN KJAX-KMFL DOWN TO ARND 7MB IS
IN LINE WITH THESE OBS.
WITH CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND AND BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN...DIMINISHING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE. WILL ALLOW THE GALE
WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 21Z...REPLACED WITH AN SCA VALID THRU 06/16Z.
EXTENSION OF THE SCA MAY BE NECESSARY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WIND FIELD DIMINISHES. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE OPENING UP WITH FCST
DOMINANT ARND 10SEC AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK. MAY BE ABLE TO GET AWAY
WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT...NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT SCA
CONFIGURATION.
THU-SAT... WINDS VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO VARIABLE AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WED NIGHT/EARLY THU TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OVERNIGHT THU. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT THU
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRI AND HIGHER SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD
TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY FRI NIGHT AND 5 FEET NEARSHORE TO 9
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SAT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 70 82 67 83 / 20 30 20 20
MCO 67 85 67 85 / 20 20 20 20
MLB 73 83 71 85 / 20 30 20 30
VRB 73 83 71 85 / 30 30 20 40
LEE 66 84 66 85 / 20 20 20 20
SFB 67 84 67 85 / 20 20 20 20
ORL 67 84 68 85 / 20 20 20 20
FPR 73 82 71 85 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INDIAN
RIVER-MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
ST. LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1228 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CST
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS DEALING WITH STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS FROM OKLAHOMA EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHEARED OUT VORT WITH A
50-60KT 500MB JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS POWERFUL
UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH UPPER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET WORK TO
KILL THE RAIN AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD TODAY. WITH PRECIP
LIKELY IN A DIMINISHING STATE THINK QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW BUT
COULD BE A DECENT COVERAGE OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND PLAN TO MAKE LAST MINUTE ADJUSTMENTS
TO POP GRIDS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PLAINS TODAY
SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POISED TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AS SYSTEM
DEEPENS LOOK FOR SHARPENING UP OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WITH
STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION RESULTING IN A BLOSSOMING OF
PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE 130KT+
250MB JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUR CWA LOOKS TO GET INTO THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG ASCENT ALSO AIDED BY 50KT+ 850MB JET
THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN DEEP/STRONG ASCENT. SFC
OBS ALREADY SHOWING PLUME OF 50F+ SFC TDS NOSING NORTH INTO WESTERN
MO LENDING SUPPORT TO THE MODEL FORECASTS OF SUCH MOISTURE MAKING IT
INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE 200-250% OF NORMAL.
THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ASCENT
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY RATHER HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ENTIRE
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...LESSENING THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH NOT TOO TERRIBLY LONG DURATION
OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN SO...STILL THINK HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A
HALF TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY OVER
2 INCHES...SO THINKING THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE SOME MINOR
NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STEADY TODAY WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5F DIURNAL TEMP RISE EXPECTED. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS (4MB+/3HR)
DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTH WIND. THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS
AND OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S TONIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME BARRELING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN
END TO THE RAIN ALONG WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LIKELY
FALLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER WILL COME SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHT WARM UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
KNOCKS TEMPS BACK DOWN AGAIN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE FORCING AND
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO KEPT POPS VERY LOW.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* SCATTERED DZ/-SHRA THIS AFTN WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS LIKELY.
* A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
* GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS ARND 25KT.
* MORE WIDESPREAD RA WITH MVFR VSBY AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. LIFR CIGS PSBL.
* WINDS BECOMING W TO NW BEHIND COLD FRONT WED AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER W TEXAS/E NEW MEXICO WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING THROUGH E IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI. SCATTERED SHRA/DZ ARE
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A GYY TO PERU LINE AND SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH.
VSBYS WILL DROP TO ARND 3SM AS THE DZ MOVES OVERHEAD WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO ARND 900 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF..ONLY
LASTING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE DZ/-SHRA WILL PUSH NE LEADING
TO A FEW DRY HOURS LATE THIS AFTN IN THIS EVENING FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. RFD IS CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...THEREFORE THE WINDOW OF
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE NARROW. MVFR TO VFR CIGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS DRY PERIOD.
THE LOW PUSHES NORTH THROUGH EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECTING IFR-LIFR CIGS
AND STEADY RAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TOMORROW.
THE MORE MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERHEAD WITH S WINDS GUSTING
TO ARND 25 KT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TURNING W TO NW AND GUSTING 15-20 KT.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TRENDS...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS....MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND EXACT HEIGHTS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVIER PRECIP.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR BECOMING VFR IN THE EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS DURING THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODERATE SW WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
320 AM CST
WINDS HAD CONTINUES TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVED NORTHEASTWARD IN WESTERN ONTARIO. THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TODAY AND THEN ON TO WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY...BECOMING A
STRONG BREEZE LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME NEAR GALE GUSTS. AS THIS LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
IT DEEPENS SOMEWHAT AND PULLS A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THERE WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST BREEZES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THURSDAY MORNING THIS LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC WITH
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
EAST AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1041 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Warm front almost stationary just to the northwest of the CWA this
morning and plenty of llvl moisture in the area. Scattered showers
moving into some slightly drier air and echos are diminishing
somewhat as they push northeast. That being said, ceilings and vis
both dropping as the boundary layer increases in RH this morning.
With the wave still just to the se...expect this trend to continue
through much of the afternoon. Have expanded current pops and pops
through the afternoon. With prolonged rainfall, expect
temperatures will have a hard time with the diurnal swing and have
adjusted those temps, particularly south of I-70. Updates out momentarily.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1145 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
Prolonged IFR and LIFR conditions at PIA BMI and SPI this morning
as llvl moisture increases from southerly flow and scattered rain
showers. VFR conditions just to the south and will provide a brief
break for the early afternoon hours. Timing is a bit problematic
as the areas with the best clearing did not drop quite as far this
morning. Break in the conditions expected through the early
evening before the approaching front spreads more showers this
evening and through the overnight. Gusts continuing through the
overnight and tomorrow morning with winds just off the sfc to
35kts at 1500ft. Momentum transfer with rain showers expected to
translate some of that wind to the surface resulting in a blustery
overnight and early morning for Wed. Dropping categories to MVFR
late tonight until morning...then a drop to IFR mainly for cigs at
this point. Will be difficult to drop vis much below MVFR with the
stronger winds.
HJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night
00Z models continue to trend quicker with cold frontal passage Wed
and diminishing/ending showers from west to east during Wed afternoon
over the IL River valley and rest of central and eastern IL Wed
evening. Also have increased chances of light rain showers and
sprinkles today over central IL, with band over se IL shifting
northward during the day and mainly impacting the IL river valley
by late afternoon.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1041 mb high pressure over
Maine New Brunswick Canada and ridging across the Atlantic states
while a cold front extended from 1000 mb low pressure along the
northern Ontario/Manitoba province line through se parts of WI/IA
into nw MO and central KS to 1004 mb low pressure over west
central NM. Warm air advection and isentropic lift had developing
a band of light rain showers and sprinkles over southern MO and se
IL into west central IN during the night. NAM and RUC models shows
this light qpf shifting northward during the day and focused nw of
the IL river by late afternoon. So have increase chances of light
rains showers and sprinkles this morning and shifting into the IL
river valley during the afternoon while eastern IL is trending
drier. Highs today in the lower 60s, except some upper 50s over
the IL river valley where cloudy skies prevail today.
Better forcing into the IL river valley overnight and across rest
of central and eastern IL Wednesday as cold front pushes east
across IL during the day Wednesday. Lows tonight in the lower 50s.
Highs Wed range from mid 50s nw of IL river to the lower 60s over
se IL with breezy conditions expected and wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph possible Wed. Have 80-100% chance of showers across region Wed
morning and then diminish over the IL river valley behind cold
front Wed afternoon and diminish over eastern IL during Wed
evening. Rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1 inch across region expected
Wed.
Dry and cooler conditions behind the cold front overnight Wed
night and Thursday and clouds quickly decrease with fair amount of
sunshine expected Thu and highs in the lower 50s.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night
More of a zonal upper level flow sets up late this week into the
weekend with generally dry conditions expected. A short wave
moving east into the western great lakes Friday night to give
isolated light rain showers from Galesburg to Lacon north with
most of central IL staying dry. Temps cool a bit Saturday night
and Sunday behind this weather system. Dry conditions look to hold
through Monday night across central and southeast IL.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1218 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2013
...Updated Aviation section...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper air analysis, and nearly every model reviewed, showed an
upper level trough from eastern Montana to eastern Arizona late
Monday evening. There was an upper level jet at the 250mb level
at 00z, running from about the Baja California area northeastward
right through Kansas and on towards southern Minnesota. This jet
was around 120kts for much of that defined area. Wind speeds near
Kansas settle down to near the 40 to 50kt range at the 500mb
level. There was a 500mb cut off low over central Manitoba,
Canada, with a broad trough back toward southern California. The
low pressure system over Manitoba was even more developed at the
700mb level. The zero isotherm at 700mb was from central Iowa
southwest to northwestern Kansas, then it looped northwesterly
into Northern Colorado. The deep, low pressure system was stacked
nearly vertical down to the 850mb level. There was elevated 850mb
moisture from southwestern Oklahoma through central Kansas. The
lower level flow over the plains was basically southeast,
producing an upslope flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Nearly every model that was looked at, from the HRRR and RUC13, to
the NAM and NamDNG5, to the ECMWF, GEM, and GFS models, showed the
large upper trough approaching western Kansas from the west today.
The models also showed a surface front over southwestern Kansas
moving north this morning this morning as a warm front to near I-70,
then turning back toward the south as a cold front this afternoon.
This frontal boundary will provide plenty of low level lift for
showers and a few thunderstorms today as well as isentropic assent
conditions, and the upper trough will supply plenty of upper level
lift across most of western Kansas. Therefore, high level Pops are
warranted, and nearly all of southwestern Kansas will get some
beneficial rain. Temperatures are a bit challenging. Since we will
be socked in with lower ceilings, I did lower max temperatures
today a couple of degrees, which is more in line with the MET and
MAV guidance products. Besides, our WFO neighbors to our northwest
and west were lower than we had for max temperatures today.
The precipitation should lighten up and become more of a light rain
event around sundown, and then quickly exit to the east. The upper
trough will be moving at a pretty good pace, and the clouds will
leave just as fast. Very cold air is set to enter western Kansas
tonight, and the I expect a hard freeze in a few counties which have
not had a Hard Freeze Warning as of yet. Some spots in my 7 county
Warning have experienced a hard freeze, but not perhaps the entire
county. To the east of the Hard Freeze Warning area, the later
departing precip and clouds will delay cooling as well. Therefore,
lows in LaCrosse and Dodge City areas will be near 30F, with only
mid 30s in the Comanche and Barber county areas. Another day,
perhaps not too far out, will take care of the Hard Freeze warnings
for Dodge and eastward.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
The upper trough axis will be shifted onto the eastern Plains by
Wednesday afternoon. As a result low level (850 mb level ECMWF
fields show this) warm air advection and downslope winds will
return to western and central Kansas. Temperatures will be
rebounding from several degrees below zero especially from Hays to
Liberal and westward, so despite warm advection and adiabatic
warming, the heating will be limited. The most sensible models
forecast low to mid 50`s by afternoon with breezy winds and strong
insolation. Surface high pressure then builds southward into Texas
leaving Kansas in the northern edge of the anticyclone. By Thursday
lee troughing will develop across the northern High Plains leading
to the development of southerly winds across the area and warm
advection in the boundary layer. A second shortwave will dive
through Nebraska late Friday night, bring a fast moving cold front
over the area again. By the weekend the polar jet lifts to the
northern tier of states in a zonal pattern before buckling by Monday or
Tuesday and forming an amplified ridge across the western 1/3 of
the country. This pattern adds confidence to the current forecast of
dry with a warming trend through the 60`s and increasingly mild
overnights (40`s or generally above freezing) early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
Rain showers and stratus will continue at DDC, GCK, and HYS
through the early evening hours. This will result in LIFR/IFR
flight category. By early evening, the low stratus will begin to
scatter out with ceiling expected to rise through the MVFR
category. A cold front will push through during the 20-21Z time
frame with an abrupt shift in winds to the north-northwest at 18
to 22 knots sustained. A few gusts around 30 knots will likely
occur for the first couple of hours after the frontal passage late
in the afternoon. VFR flight category is expected by late in the
evening as total cloud cover starts to scatter out with subsidence
starting to take over as the entire storm system begins to move
away from western Kansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 30 52 29 61 / 70 10 0 0
GCK 25 52 27 60 / 40 0 0 0
EHA 28 53 31 62 / 30 0 0 0
LBL 30 53 27 63 / 50 0 0 0
HYS 28 51 28 59 / 70 0 0 0
P28 36 53 30 62 / 80 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday FOR KSZ043-
044-063-076-077-084-085.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burke
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1206 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
NW ONTARIO TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ITS ASSOC 999 MB SFC LOW IS HELPING
DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI THIS MORNING. DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SCOURED OUT LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST HALF OF UPPER
MI EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW CLOUDS STILL REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA AS NOTED ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
TODAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON AS 295-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO
NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE OF THE 140+ KT 250-300 MB JET MOVING OVER ONTARIO AND
800-700 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES
NEAR THE WI BORDER BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW
WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S
WEST TO LOWER 50S EAST.
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN UPPER MI
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPS AND
RIDES ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO ERN
UPPER MI ATTM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND INTENSIFY AS THE AREA IS UNDER A
COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT
FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE WESTERN CONUS TROF AND NOSING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES). STRONG 290-300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOC WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
THE BEST FORCING AND 800-700 MB FGEN LOOKS TO BE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN MOSTLY
SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS THERMAL GRADIENT AND RAIN TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO
DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANGE FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CRYSTAL FALLS
TO NEGAUNEE. EAST OF THIS LINE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY MAINLY
THE FORM OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GREATLY LIMITING ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL. WARMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW WILL ALSO
LIMIT ACCUMS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.
WITH MODEL AVERAGED QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE 0.50-0.90 INCH OF
LIQUID OVER THE WRN CWA AND SNOW/WATER RATIOS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
8-9/1 THROUGH MUCH OF EVENT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER THE AREAS WEST OF
CRYSTAL FALLS AND NEGAUNEE AND AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. AS A RESULT
HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARQUETTE-IRON COUNTIES
WESTWARD EXCLUDING NRN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES FOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THE SFC LOW WILL BE SET UP ACROSS E WI. THE
CANADIAN SOLUTION STILL LOOKS TO BE THE SLOWEST AND WILL NOT BE
RELIED UPON AS HEAVILY. IT REMAINS A DIFFICULT FCST PRECIP
AMOUNT/TYPE WISE. THE BEST DYNAMICS INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
WILL QUICKLY EXIT E WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME EARLY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CENTRAL UPPER
MI THANKS TO NNE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. AS NOTED THE CANADIAN
IS VERY PERSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF
6HRS...WITH THE LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MI AT 18Z FAR E UPPER MI AT
00Z THURSDAY. THE 500MB TROUGH SET UP OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR AT 18Z
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC LOW TO THE NE THROUGH THE
DAY...DEEPENING AS IT GOES. THE SFC LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE FAR E
TIP OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD ENOUGH AIR FINALLY
WRAPPING IN ON NW WINDS FOR ALL SNOW /EXCEPT STILL A MIX E NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES/ BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE...MUCH LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP MOISTURE...AND WHAT THERE IS ONLY COOLING
TO AROUND -8C ALOFT...THE PRISTINE/QUICKEST ACCUMULATING DENDRITIC
CRYSTALS JUST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FORM IN MASS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE TRICKY...AND MAINLY RESERVED TO LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY BURSTS OF
SNOW. OTHERWISE THE AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S SHOULD
KEEP MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS RESTRICTED TO GRASSY
SURFACES DURING THE DAY.
NW FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT AS A SERIES OF WEAKER WAVES PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...RESTRICTING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
/RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E/ TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND E OF
MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE THEM
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FCST THANKS TO THE COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -9C.
EXPECT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF BREAK TO THE
LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS E. WAA ON S WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO
RISE NEAR -1C...WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 40-45F ACROSS THE AREA. THE FCST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON MOVING THE SFC LOW TO THE W HALF OF
THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY...WITH A GOOD SWATH OF MAINLY
RAIN. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE GFS.
GIVEN THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACROSS N MANITOBA IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COOLEST TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR N...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE LOW
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FROM THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND WRAPS BOTH SYSTEMS INTO
1...QUICKLY INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW AS IT EXITS NE AND BRINGING IN
-10 TO -12C 850MB AIR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD WOULD RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS AND MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND WATCH HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
A BRIEF SURFACE RIDGE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL ALLOW SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE IWD AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SAW AND CMX SEEING RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN SNOW MIX. SNOW MAY
BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES NEAR IWD TO ALLOW VISIBILITY TO FALL INTO
THE IFR CATEGORY...HOWEVER THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE
MVFR ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ALLOWING CEILINGS TO
DROP WELL INTO THE IFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW OBS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO
LIFR AT THE IWD AND CMX TAF SITE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR
BELOW AT EACH TAF SITE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EST TUE NOV 5 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES NORTH THROUGH NW ONTARIO TODAY...A TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING ANY REMAINING GALE FORCE
GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON THIS MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
339 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON THAT STRETCHES FROM A 1010 MB SFC LOW OVER THE
OK PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO ABOUT SHEBOYGAN IN WISCONSIN. SPLAYED WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE MPX CWA IS 1025 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. WE HAVE SEEN SOME VERY DRY AIR BUILD IN AT THE SFC WITH
THE HIGH...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL MN DOWN INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A 0.5 DEG REFLECTIVITY IMAGE AT 21Z SHOWS THE
IMPACT OF THIS DRY LOW LEVEL AIR...WITH A NICE DONUT HOLE AROUND THE
MPX RADAR. HOWEVER...REFLECTIVITY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RDA IS LOWER
THAN IT IS EAST AND NORTHEAST...SO YOU CAN GET THE SENSE OF HOW THE
ATMO IS QUICKLY MOISTENING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITES.
REGIONAL RADAR RIGHT NOW SHOWS TWO ENHANCED AREAS OF REFLECTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST MODELS SHOW THIS CURRENT TREND OF TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF QPF CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT. ONE AREA
CAN BE BEST DESCRIBED AS A BLOB OF PRECIPITATION THAT CAN BE FOUND
AT 21Z ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. THIS IS ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND ITS
ASSOCIATED THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE. THE SECOND IS A BAND OF RADAR
RETURNS THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR NORTH PLATTE IN CENTRAL
NEB...NORTHEAST THROUGH SIOUX FALLS AND CONTINUES ON COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY NORTHEAST TO REDWOOD FALLS/BUFFALO/CAMBRIDGE AND
EVENTUALLY OVER TO THE SPOONER WI AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ENHANCED FGEN ALONG WITH SOME CSI CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. YOU CAN
SEE THE IMPACTS OF THESE TWO PIECES OF FORCING IN SEVERAL OF THE
HI-RES MODELS. FOR INSTANCE...THE 05.18 HRRR SHOWS QPF OF 0.75-1.00
INCHES ACROSS SE MN WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE...A LULL IN TOTAL
QPF FROM MANKATO UP THROUGH HASTINGS WHERE ONLY A QUARTER INCH OF
QPF IS INDICATED...WITH THE CSI BAND SHOWING UP FROM REDWOOD FALLS
THROUGH MINNEAPOLIS AND UP TOWARD RICE LAKE WHERE RUN TOTAL QPF IS
UP MORE IN THE 0.5 INCH RANGE THANKS TO THE ENHANCED FGEN/CSI
FORCING. FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...IT IS WHERE THIS FGEN
BAND SETS UP THAT WILL RESULT IN THE 3-5 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS THAT
ARE EXPECTED.
COUPLE OF THINGS THAT MAKE THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST DIFFICULT ARE
NARROW NATURE OF THE EXPECTED FGEN BAND /NOT MUCH MORE THAN 50 MILES
WIDE/ ALONG WITH HOW QUICKLY DO THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMO COOL TO
ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING MANY PLACES IN
THE TWIN CITIES WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S...IT IS THOSE DEWPOINTS AND
THE ATTENDANT WET BULB TEMPERATURES THAT YOU REALLY NEED TO PAY
ATTENTION TO. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR...SFC WEB BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S...WHICH MEANS AS THE PRECIP EVAPORATES WE WILL
QUICKLY SEE TEMPS FALL OFF TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...WITH A RAPID
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WEST OF A BLUE EARTH/WASECA/LADYSMITH
LINE SHORTLY AFTER RAIN BEGINS. EAST OF THIS LINE...DEWPS ARE STILL
MAINLY IN THE MID 30S. A GOOD EXAMPLE OF THIS RAPID CHANGEOVER WAS
LITCHFIELD...WHICH FIRST REPORTED RAIN AT 230 PM AND WAS ALREADY
REPORTING SNOW 20 MINUTES LATER.
THE SPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS FOR WHERE THE 3-5 INCH BAND SETS UP
WAS NOT ALL THAT LARGE...RANGING ON THE 05.12 RUNS FROM BEING
CENTERED ALONG THE HENNEPIN/DAKOTA COUNTY LINE WITH THE NAM AND MORE
ALONG THE HENNEPIN/WRIGHT COUNTY LINE WITH THE GFS/GEM.
HRRR/HOPWRF/MPXWRF/ECMWF BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
TWO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS. THE
ONE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE WARNING
TYPE SNOW /GREATER THAN 6 INCHES/ IS SW MN...WHERE THE SNOW IS
ALREADY FLYING AND THE RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE FGEN BAND LOOKS TO BE
THE LONGEST.
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IS...THOUGH WOULD SAY THAT
MOST OF MN COULD BE ENDED AROUND 9Z...WITH WI ENDING AT 12Z...ABOUT
3 HOURS AHEAD OF WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.
FOR AS MUCH FUN AS WE ARE GOING TO HAVE WITH THE PRECIP
TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THE AFTERNOON. DID FAVOR THE
FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW TOWARD A BLEND OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...WHICH RESULTED IN THE COOLEST TEMPS /WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S/ ALONG WHERE THE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
FOLLOWING WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM RIDES
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...WITH SOME
SUNSHINE AND NEAR NOMRAL TEMPERATURES.
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME DEVELOPS AND ANOTHER FAST MOVING TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS LESS SO AND
FARTHER NORTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE DEEPER
NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO WILL FOLLOW THIS FOR NOW. STILL
PROVIDES JUST A CHANCE OF MIXED TYPE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
EVENT...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH FOR SUNDAY...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGING ON OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THE NEXT
WESTERN TROUGH INTO THE CWA. THE ECWMF IS FASTER WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT DRAWING IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HOLDS OFF ON THIS COLD
AIR INTRUSION UNTIL WEDNESDAY. STILL TIME TO DECIPHER MODEL TRNEDS
WITH THIS OVERALL DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT ALL BUT AXN TO SOME DEGREE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
TAFS...WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM/HOPWRF. THE
GFS/RAP/HRRR/GEM HAVE SHIFTED NW SOME WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
BAND...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW NW OF MSP/RNH. FOR
CLOUDS...LOOKING AT WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN DOWN IN ERN
NEB/WRN IA...GFSLAMP CIG FORECAST IS WAY TO OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
CIG FORECAST...INSTEAD STUCK CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXISTING TAFS
HAD...WHICH MATCH UP BETTER WITH WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TO
THE SW. ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE IN THE CIG DEPARTMENT WAS TO DELAY
THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO A RAP TIMING. FOR PRECIP END...IF
ANYTHING THESE TAFS MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THE SNOW/MVFR CIGS A
LITTLE BE TOO LONG...AS DRYING WILL BE COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST...WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF WI BY 18Z WED.
KMSP...STUCK WITH CONTINUITY WITH THESE TAFS...BUT IF THE
GFS/HRRR/RAP END UP BEING CORRECT...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL COME
CLOSER TO 3Z...WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WINDOW ONLY BEING A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONG. CURRENT TAF STICKS CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM 1Z TO 4Z...BUT
IF THE GFS IDEA COMES TO FRUITION...THE SNOW TOTAL WILL BE MORE
LIKE 1 INCH...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR
CONFINED MORE TO THE 3-5Z WINDOW. BASED ON CIGS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN
IA...CURRENT TAF CIG FORECAST LOOKS MORE REALISTIC THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING WITH THE GFSLAMP. WE MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS COME IN WITH
THE END OF THE SNOW...WHICH MAY HAPPEN A BIT SOONER THAN WHAT THE
18Z TAF HAS...BUT DOES LOOK GOOD TO SEE SKC SKIES BY WED
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ051>053-
059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1145 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
EYES ARE ON THE HIGHLY ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM ON TRACK TO AFFECT
THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS SAID TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MN BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY...WHEN AN AREA OF IMPRESSIVE 700MB 2D FRONTOGENESIS IS
ALSO PROGGED TO BE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWESTERN MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI...PER ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE...NAMELY TIMING THE
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION. DO THINK PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF IN
THE FORM OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN AT ONSET. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE TO
BE KNOCKING ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE TWIN CITIES...WITH THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE METRO AREA AND EXTREME WEST CENTRAL WI
NOT FULLY OCCURRING UNTIL BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY. THE FAR
EASTERN CWA /I.E. EAU CLAIRE/ WILL LIKELY NOT SEE A FULL TRANSITION
TO SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AND OMEGA
IN THE KEY DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY
AMOUNTS /3-5 INCHES/ FROM SOUTHWEST MN NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI.
EXPECT THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 7 PM CST THIS EVE AND 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PV
BOOT SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPLIES THE NECESSARY FORCING FOR
SNOWFALL GENERATION.
IN THE MEANTIME...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM HAVE LED TO DENSE FOG OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL MN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WI. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH WIDESPREAD
VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE QUARTER MILE /NEARING ZERO FEET/ EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MID MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
AFTER TUESDAY NIGHTS STORM...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION EVERY FEW DAYS. ZONAL FLOW ALSO HAS A TENDENCY TO HAVE
MILDER TEMPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPS FROM WARM TO COLD. ALTHOUGH CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THE AREAS NEAR THE TWIN CITIES...TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL FROM
HIGHS IN THE 40S...TO NEAR 40 BY MID NOVEMBER...PLUS OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S BY THIS TIME FRAME. THIS MILDER FLOW WILL
LIKELY PLAY HAVOC ON PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL
LIKELY OSCILLATE ACROSS MN FOR EVERY WX SYSTEM THAT MOVES THRU.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG WITH QUICK BURST OF LIGHT QPF AMTS.
LOOKING AT THE NAO AND PNA /NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION & PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN FOR MID NOVEMBER INDICATES A MORE NEGATIVE
TREND FOR THE PNA...AND ONLY A SLIGHT POSITIVE FOR THE NAO. THESE
TWO PATTERN TOGETHER FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST HAVE A TENDENCY TO
PRODUCE MILDER TEMPS...BUT WETTER CONDS. THIS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE CURRENT CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE WARMER AND WETTER
CONDS TO OCCUR ACROSS MN/WI BY MID NOVEMBER.
IN ADDITION TO THE NAO/PNA PATTERN CHANGES...THE MJO /MADDEN
JULIAN OSCILLATION AND ITS CORRELATION TO THE CHANGES IN THE
TROPICS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD PHASE 1. THIS BASICALLY MEANS...AND
HIGHLY BASED ON THE CHANGES IN THE MJO...THAT OUR REGION HAS A
SLIGHTLY COOLER/WETTER TREND BY THE END OF NOVEMBER. FOR MORE IN
DEPTH INFORMATION ON THE MJO PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING LINK.
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRECIP/CWLINK/MJO/MJO.SHTML. ALL
LETTERS ARE LOWER CASE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CW AND MJO AFTER
CWLINK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT ALL BUT AXN TO SOME DEGREE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING
TAFS...WHICH MATCH UP WELL WITH THE 12Z NAM/HOPWRF. THE
GFS/RAP/HRRR/GEM HAVE SHIFTED NW SOME WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW
BAND...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNOW NW OF MSP/RNH. FOR
CLOUDS...LOOKING AT WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING SEEN DOWN IN ERN
NEB/WRN IA...GFSLAMP CIG FORECAST IS WAY TO OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS
CIG FORECAST...INSTEAD STUCK CLOSE TO WHAT THE EXISTING TAFS
HAD...WHICH MATCH UP BETTER WITH WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TO
THE SW. ONLY REAL CHANGE MADE IN THE CIG DEPARTMENT WAS TO DELAY
THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO A RAP TIMING. FOR PRECIP END...IF
ANYTHING THESE TAFS MAY BE HOLDING ON TO THE SNOW/MVFR CIGS A
LITTLE BE TOO LONG...AS DRYING WILL BE COMING IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST...WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF WI BY 18Z WED.
KMSP...STUCK WITH CONTINUITY WITH THESE TAFS...BUT IF THE
GFS/HRRR/RAP END UP BEING CORRECT...THE SWITCH TO SNOW WILL COME
CLOSER TO 3Z...WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WINDOW ONLY BEING A COUPLE OF
HOURS LONG. CURRENT TAF STICKS CLOSE TO THE IDEA OF 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR FROM 1Z TO 4Z...BUT
IF THE GFS IDEA COMES TO FRUITION...THE SNOW TOTAL WILL BE MORE
LIKE 1 INCH...WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3/4 OF AN INCH PER HOUR
CONFINED MORE TO THE 3-5Z WINDOW. BASED ON CIGS ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN
IA...CURRENT TAF CIG FORECAST LOOKS MORE REALISTIC THAN WHAT WE
ARE SEEING WITH THE GFSLAMP. WE MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS COME IN WITH
THE END OF THE SNOW...WHICH MAY HAPPEN A BIT SOONER THAN WHAT THE
18Z TAF HAS...BUT DOES LOOK GOOD TO SEE SKC SKIES BY WED
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
FRI...CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-
091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
305 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TODAY IS GENERALLY UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING...AND A CHANGE TO SNOW
IN OUR W/NW BY MID/LATE MORNING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS PICKED UP AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF AN INCH WHILE OTHER REPORTS OF OVER ONE INCH
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. THE RAIN HAS MIXED WITH AND MADE THE SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE GOTHENBURG AREA NORTHEASTWARD TO
ARCADIA/ORD/GREELEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RAP HAS BEEN HANDLING THE ONGOING/SHORT TERM TIME FRAME WELL AND
HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THIS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH MAIN RAIN AREA SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN KS
AND NEB. THE MID LEVEL H7 CIRCULATION TENDS TO INTERMITTENTLY CLOSE
AS IT LIFTS TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND/PSEUDO
DEFORMATION REMAINING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. THIS BEING
SAID...A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN IS STILL EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD.
AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH...THE LINGERING RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM GENOA TO HASTINGS TO
FRANKLIN FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR NW/W CWA...WHERE CURRENTLY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF A SNOW
BAND SETS UP THIS EVENING. THE LAST SNOW REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE
ORD AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAD A SNOW ACCUMULATION OF JUST OVER
ONE INCH. OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY AREA...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
THE SNOW WILL RAPIDLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING BEHIND THE
PASSING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ENDED PCPN BY 06Z...BUT OUR FAR
NORTH MAY SEE A FEW FLURRIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH PERIOD AND IF THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIPITATION
NEXT TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL START THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE VERY FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS WITH COOL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHEN
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON FRIDAY AND WITH WINDS ALOFT OF OVER 40 KTS
EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRING A LITTLE BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO WHAT IS
EXPECTED. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. WITH
SOUTH WINDS THE GFS BRINGS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND
WITH WARM ADVECTION THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN ON TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS EAST WINDS AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE WENT A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE GFS AT THIS TIME AND HAVE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RAIN
WILL MIX WITH SNOW IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE IN THE
IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY BEFORE IMPROVING TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039-
040-046-060.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY EAST PER
AFTERNOON STLT IMAGERY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOME LIQUID
AMOUNTS HAVE PUSHED PAST 1 INCH...AS IT PRODUCED DECENT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WHICH TAPPED DECENT LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS IS/WAS DESPITE ANEMIC UPPER HGT FALLS...20-40M AT
H5. SHORT TERM QPF FROM 4KM WRF/RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO LIFT
PRECIP ENE WITH IT EXITING SWRN ZONES NOT TOO LONG AFTER THE
00Z-03Z TIME PERIOD WITH A DEFORMATION BAND OF DWINDLING PRECIP
PROBABLY LINGERING OVER NERN NEBR ALL NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
TRACE FLURRIES YET IN THE MORNING. BASED ON CURRENT STLT/RADAR
TRENDS THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL LEAVE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE
ALONE FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR ON SERN
EDGE OF ADVISORY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN FORECAST DUE TO WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPS AT
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. WITH APPROACHING NIGHTFALL...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE EASILY TO COME BY BUT MOST
ADDITIONAL SHOULD BE AN INCH OR TWO...OR LESS...AFT 00Z. THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY MAKE IT TO OMAHA/LINCOLN BUT IT APPEARS COLDER
AIR SUPPORTING THE CHANGEOVER WILL BE ARRIVING ABOUT THE SAME TIME
THE PRECIP ENDS AT THOSE CITIES.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE SHORTER TERM IS MAINLY TEMPERATURE
DRIVEN AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS WED THROUGH
FRIDAY. DID BUMP THEM UP A FEW DEGREES SOUTH ON WED WHERE GROUND
WILL BE ABSENT ANY SNOW AS WIND DIRECTION...NW SHIFTING TO WSW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. BUT IF CLOUDS FAIL TO CLEAR...WHICH
WAS NOT EXPECTED...HIGHS WOULD BE A BIT COOLER. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER WILL HAVE A DWINDLING IMPACT ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY NORTH...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN PREV FORECAST
AND LOOKED GOOD BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MAIN CHANGE
BEYOND WEDNESDAY WAS TO LOWER LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT
...ESPECIALLY E...AS RETURN FLOW WILL PROBABLY SET UP TOO LATE TO
KEEP MANY TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 20S THAT GUIDANCE
FORECAST.
CHERMOK
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAVE LITTLE TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXTENDED PDS
WITH GREAT VARIATION SEEN BTWN THE ECM/GFS/CMC. THUS MAKING TEMP
FCST AS WELL AS POTENTIAL PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES EXTREMELY
PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.
AS OF NOW...LATEST ECM PROGS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM
ZONAL TO DEVELOPING TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROFS...ONE OVER THE
PAC NW AND THE OTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES THUS FAVORING A COLD
PATTERN ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS. THE GFS ON THE OTHER BASICALLY
MAINTAINS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW. MEANWHILE THE CMC DIGS AN UPPER
TROF THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH SW FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. COMPARISON
OF MAX/MIN TEMPS BTWN THE 05/00Z ECMMOS AND 05/12Z MEX CLEARLY
SHOWING THE DISTINCTION. HIGHS PROGGED NEXT TUES AT KOMA...ECM MOS
36/MEX 49. GIVEN THAT THE ECM HAS PROVEN TO OUT PERFORM ON A REGULAR
BASIS...FEEL COMPELLED TO TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTION.
AS FOR POSSIBLE PCPN MON NIGHT/TUES...WILL AGAIN OPT TO GO WITH THE
DRIER ECM.
DEE
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THEREAFTER.
SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 18Z WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
ALONG A COLD FRONT LAYING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA BY 01Z. PRECIP EXPECTED TO END TOWARD 06Z AS THE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ011-
012-016>018-030-031.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 PM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IMPRESSIVE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION OVER ROUGHLY
THE PAST 18 HOURS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM HOWEVER THESE WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS A POTENT DRY SLOT SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE AREA. A BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED INTO THE NORTHEAST
AND TEMPS ARE PLUMMETING ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS. LATEST HRRR AND RUC
GUIDANCE WITH SUPPORT FROM SREF INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OR A SMALL
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES BETWEEN RED RIVER
AND RATON PASS...AND FROM NEAR DES MOINES/CAPULIN EAST TO CLAYTON FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. HAVE FOCUSED CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA.
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO VERY COLD TEMPS TONIGHT AS A STRONG
1035MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS OVER COLORADO AND EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY AIR INVADES THE STATE. 20Z OBS ACROSS THE NW CORNER AND AROUND
SW COLORADO ALREADY HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TEENS. CLEAR SKIES ON
TAP WILL LEAD TO IMPRESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. HIGH WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN NEAR 5 TO 10F WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE SUN MAKING IT FEEL
A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE EVEN STRONGER
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THE RANGE OF MIN TEMPS WITHIN THE ABQ METRO ON THE ORDER OF 20+
DEGREES BETWEEN THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS.
A FAST MOVING DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS COLORADO AND
INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD TO
MODIFYING TEMPS WITH READINGS NOW 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL. NEUTRAL TO
VERY WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED
BY WARM ADVECTION AS THE FLOWS SHIFTS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK VERY NICE AS TEMPS MODIFYING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. IN
ADDITION...A GUSTY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
A FEW TO 11 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
FARTHER EAST...READINGS SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 11 DEGREES DUE TO THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS ALSO EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE BETTER VENTILATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO
A WEAK LEE TROUGH. VENTILATION SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW TO 9 DEGREES...EXCEPT FROM
ALBUQUERQUE TO GALLUP...FARMINGTON AND CHAMA WHERE A BROAD AREA OF
POOR VENTILATION SHOULD PERSIST AS THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES ALOFT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
CAUSING WESTERLY MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS TO STRENGTHEN TO 20-35 KTS WHILE
A SHARP LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME GUSTY WITH DECENT VENTILATION AREAWIDE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BE BREEZIEST IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 9 DEGREES ACROSS THE
EAST ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS. POOR VENTILATION MAY ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WINDS WEAKEN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.
POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN A BIT OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE PACIFIC NW COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN AFTER SATURDAYS BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THE PLAINS.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPIRING WINTER WX ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPDATED MAX/MIN
TEMPS FOR FIRST 2 PERIODS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OTHERWISE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. A FEW MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
WILL REDEVELOP AS SEEN ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS TODAY BEFORE THE
DEEPEST DRY AIR SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN/SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NE PLAINS AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. A FEW BRIEF STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BNDRY. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 19 50 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 11 47 14 57 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 16 49 18 56 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 52 14 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 11 50 13 57 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 13 52 14 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 19 53 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 20 66 20 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 14 45 12 52 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 47 28 54 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 23 47 27 53 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 16 49 14 55 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 10 37 12 45 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 43 12 52 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 16 47 14 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 19 50 21 57 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 53 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 45 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 53 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 54 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 57 21 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 59 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 57 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 57 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 59 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 50 26 57 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 52 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 51 13 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 23 48 24 57 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 53 25 58 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 58 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 54 28 61 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 18 52 26 57 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 55 23 58 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 56 22 61 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 20 52 26 58 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 53 32 60 / 30 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 51 30 58 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 30 58 30 65 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 28 59 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 30 59 30 66 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 55 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 57 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 62 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 30 59 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 31 53 28 59 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1025 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OF THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NOW. REPORTS OF ROADS IN
THAT AREA INDICATE MAINLY WET TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS. WILL GO AHEAD
AND CANCEL REMAINDER OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN CONDITIONS
AND ENDING OF SNOW. MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST GIVEN TRENDS
OTHERWISE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE ENHANCED COOL CLOUD TOPS
CURRENT PUSHING OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHER WEST...LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH SWEETWATER AND
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS HOUR. MOST OF THE SNOW HAS PUSHED EASTWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH CLEARING SKIES OBSERVED
AROUND RAWLINS. CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE LARAMIE VALLEY
AND LARAMIE RANGE FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY CANCEL IT AROUND
SUNRISE ALONG WITH LARAMIE COUNTY. SNOW HAS RECENTLY STARTED OVER
THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTER SOME RAIN/SNOW
MIX. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK...ALTHOUGH TWEAKED THE TIMING OF
THE ADVISORY IN MANY AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
AREA WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND MAINLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A STRONG 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH MOVING
WESTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO. WITH SURFACE PRESSURE RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING 110 KT JET MAX
ALOFT...THIS IS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. MAY NEED
HIGH WIND HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF I80 AND I25 LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. GFS MOS SHOWS
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING OVER THE VALLEYS AND HIGH
PLAINS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS...BUT BELIEVE THIS IS 10 KNOTS TOO
HIGH CONSIDERING THE LAST HIGH WIND EVENT HAD SIMILAR NUMBERS BUT
FAILED TO COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA OUTSIDE OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS.
WITH STABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND A VIGOROUS JET...KEPT A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S DURING THE DAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM. FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. 700MB WINDS SPIKE UP TO 50KTS AT 06Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 18Z. WILL LIKELY BE IN WIND WARNING CONDITIONS AT THAT
TIME...AT THE VERY LEAST FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS.
SEE A SMALL LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THEY DO PICK UP AGAIN BRIEFLY SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 12Z AND THEN
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING AT THE SAME TIME.
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS FINALLY START TO COME DOWN AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTH DAKOTA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS
UP AGAINST THE LARAMIE RANGE AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE DAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 50S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND MAYBE SOME 60S BY
MONDAY. WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...MID TO UPPER 40S SHOULD BE THE
NORM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
SNOW ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. HRRR SLOW IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...KEEPING MOST
LOCATIONS DOWN THROUGH 18Z. ONCE WESTERLY WINDS KICK IN...WE
SHOULD SEE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERWARDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 AM MST TUE NOV 5 2013
A QUICK MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT