Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/04/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
802 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...RATHER STG DISTURBANCE OVER NWRN CO IS MOVING
EASTWARD. QG ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SCT SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DVLP OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT
RANGE. SOUNDINGS SHOW WET BULB ZEROS DOWN TO 5500 FEET SO COULD
SEE SOME SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FM DENVER NORTH TO THE WY BORDER THRU
MIDNIGHT AND THEN EXIT FAR NERN CO BEFORE 12Z.
.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE BECOME NNE WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH
RANGE. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 04Z AND
08Z WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO 6000 FT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULALTION. WINDS BY MIDNIGHT SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 10
MPH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION SEEN
WITH THESE. OLD FORECAST FAVORED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THIS
LOOKS RIGHT BUT I DID RAISE THE POPS AS THE COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER THAT MAKES IT ONTO THE
PLAINS...ADDED SOME LOW POPS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A QUICK POP OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVER WYOMING WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MORE NORTHERN DIRECTION ON OUR
PLAINS...LEAVING THE DENVER AREA IN A MESS. SUSPECT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONE WILL GET WIPED OUT BY A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS THAT
SWING AROUND TO EAST AGAIN PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT IT COULD JUST BE
STRENGTHENED AS NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND CHEYENNE STILL WRAP AROUND
AND BECOME E OR NE INTO DENVER. IN ANY EVENT THE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...I BLENDED IN THE LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS A BIT STRONGER. GUIDANCE WAS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH LOOKS CORRECT GIVEN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S UPSTREAM.
FOR MONDAY THE IMPORTANT WORD IS DRY. THE INCOMING AIR IS PRETTY
DRY...AND LIFT IS INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ONLY SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL
ALSO BE RECYCLING DRY AIR TO BEGIN WITH. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AGAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INCREASING WITH TIME...BUT ALL
THIS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SLOW TO DEVELOP. I KEPT SOME LOW POPS
UP AROUND FORT COLLINS IN CASE THE JET IS SAGGING SOUTH QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO GET THEM IN A BAND...BUT DROPPED THE REST OF THE POPS ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM...COMPONENTS WILL COME TOGETHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
UPWARD QG LIFT WILL INCREASING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST TUESDAY. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE DECREASED QPF AMOUNTS
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL. HAVE REFLECTED THESE TRENDS IN
THE GRIDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BARELY LOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY MORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE INTO THE EVENING TO LOWER TO THE PLAINS...SO
EXPECT A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...EXPECT UP
TO 2 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE METRO AREAS WITH UP TO 4 OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE FOUND. A SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH IS STILL BEING PROGGED BY THE MODELS...WHICH NEVER
BODES WELL FOR THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS. THE WILD CARD HOWEVER
IS WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BANDING WHICH COULD
PUT DOWN MUCH MORE AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ENERGY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY TO
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THIS EVENING AND MAY DISRUPT THE CURRENT WIND
PATTERN...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST REINFORCE THE EXISTING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DENVER CYCLONE CAUSING LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD LOWER ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RPK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.UPDATE...
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AND ON TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE LATEST SUITE OF HI
RES MODELS. 12Z SNDG AND FORECAST SNDG PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT
EVEN MENTION OF TSTM AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS EARLY MORNING`S DISCUSSION, MAIN STORY FOR TODAY
CONTINUES TO BE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR RECORD HI TEMPS ALONG EAST
COAST.
BEYOND THAT, MAIN STORY FOR COMING DAYS AND EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN BARRIER ISLANDS AROUND
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (MID MORNINGS/EVENINGS) AND BEACH EROSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR ANY OF THE SITES
BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM. EXPECTING FROPA TO OCCUR AROUND 23Z AT
KMIA AND KTMB AND 22Z AT ALL OTHER SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
.RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
.MARINE AND ATLANTIC COASTAL IMPACTS SUN-WED, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THEN...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND IT, DRIVING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FL, BUT TEMPS REALLY JUST LOWER TO
CLIMO AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM BY
SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY OF THIS FORECAST -
NE-E WINDS WILL PICK UP SUN-WED, DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
THE TYPICAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES ON THE BAYSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND, DUE TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DURING THIS PERIOD
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND. THE WORSE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR MON-TUE. THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN OUR PRODUCTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS AGAIN INCREASING BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE WILL DROP ONLY BRIEFLY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SPIKE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER.
THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRIEF, AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
A RETURN TO 70F DEWPOINTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90.
MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT OR HIGHER
SUN-WED, POSSIBLY EVEN TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND 8 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 2ND:
WEST PALM BEACH...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 92F-1919
FORT LAUDERDALE...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 90F-1919
MIAMI.............FORECAST: 89F, RECORD: 89F-1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 71 81 70 / 20 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 71 82 74 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 85 65 84 64 / 30 10 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR ANY OF THE SITES
BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM. EXPECTING FROPA TO OCCUR AROUND 23Z AT
KMIA AND KTMB AND 22Z AT ALL OTHER SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
..RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
..MARINE AND ATLANTIC COASTAL IMPACTS SUN-WED, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THEN...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND IT, DRIVING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FL, BUT TEMPS REALLY JUST LOWER TO
CLIMO AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM BY
SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY OF THIS FORECAST -
NE-E WINDS WILL PICK UP SUN-WED, DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
THE TYPICAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES ON THE BAYSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND, DUE TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DURING THIS PERIOD
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND. THE WORSE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR MON-TUE. THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN OUR PRODUCTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS AGAIN INCREASING BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE WILL DROP ONLY BRIEFLY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SPIKE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER.
THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRIEF, AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
A RETURN TO 70F DEWPOINTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90.
MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT OR HIGHER
SUN-WED, POSSIBLY EVEN TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND 8 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 2ND:
WEST PALM BEACH...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 92F-1919
FORT LAUDERDALE...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 90F-1919
MIAMI.............FORECAST: 89F, RECORD: 89F-1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 71 81 70 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 71 82 74 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 85 65 84 64 / 20 10 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
...RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
...MARINE AND ATLANTIC COASTAL IMPACTS SUN-WED, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THEN...
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND IT, DRIVING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FL, BUT TEMPS REALLY JUST LOWER TO
CLIMO AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM BY
SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY OF THIS FORECAST -
NE-E WINDS WILL PICK UP SUN-WED, DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
THE TYPICAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES ON THE BAYSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND, DUE TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DURING THIS PERIOD
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND. THE WORSE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR MON-TUE. THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN OUR PRODUCTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS AGAIN INCREASING BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE WILL DROP ONLY BRIEFLY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SPIKE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER.
THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRIEF, AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
A RETURN TO 70F DEWPOINTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT OR HIGHER
SUN-WED, POSSIBLY EVEN TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND 8 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 2ND:
WEST PALM BEACH...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 92F-1919
FORT LAUDERDALE...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 90F-1919
MIAMI.............FORECAST: 89F, RECORD: 89F-1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 71 81 70 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 71 82 74 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 85 65 84 64 / 20 10 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
650 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED SHOWERS IN LANCASTER
AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN
THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPDATED POP AND WX GRIDS TO GIVE A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CAE NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE AFTER 02Z...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS MAY GUST BRIEFLY
TO AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL ABOUT 01Z-02Z. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY AT SPEEDS 5 TO 8 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED
SHOWERS IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPDATED POP AND WX
GRIDS TO GIVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CAE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE
AFTER 02Z...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS MAY GUST BRIEFLY
TO AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL ABOUT 01Z-02Z. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY AT SPEEDS 5 TO 8 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED
SHOWERS IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPDATED POP AND WX
GRIDS TO GIVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CAE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE
AFTER 02Z...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS GUSTING
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN A FEW AREAS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED
SHOWERS IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. WE FORECASTED JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS GUSTING
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN A FEW AREAS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
520 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS
SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER
VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND
H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE
LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR
SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO
DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS
FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS
ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW...PROVIDING VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
429 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS
SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER
VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND
H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE
LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR
SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO
DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS
FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS
ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 423 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA
THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR BOTH
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW...PROVIDING VFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
508 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show a stream of
embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the main wave
positioned across the western conus. The southwesterly flow has
allowed ample mid level moisture from the western coast to trail
northeast across the central plains, resulting in a mid level deck
of scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. This cloud
cover however has not hindered the strong southerly winds
continuing to gust to around 45 mph near the Concordia and Abilene
areas, lessening between 30 and 40 mph gusts near the Manhattan
and Topeka areas. Will continue with the current wind advisory
through 6 PM when winds weaken below criteria.
The surface trough responsible for the tight pressure gradient
should shift slightly eastward into western Kansas this evening as
a progressive upper shortwave trough lifts northeast through the
northern plains. This should keep the gusty winds in place
overnight, weakening slightly between 15 and 20 mph sustained with
gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with cloud cover in the area, lows in
the upper 40s will be common. In terms of precipitation, very weak
echos develop per the 4 km ARW and 3 km HRRR for late this evening
into the overnight hours. The NAM also hints at weak isentropic
lift on the 310 and 315K surfaces as an area of weak mid level
vorticity is noted across eastern areas of Kansas. The limiting
factors are the lack of strong mid level forcing and dry air at
the low levels with cloud bases near 10 KFT. Kept slight chances
for any developing shower just in case it is able to overcome the
drier air and reach the surface.
Another warm Monday afternoon is in store as the weak cold front
tracks southeast, weakening winds to around 10 mph along and
behind the boundary. Surface high pressure builds in bringing weak
cold advection into the area. Have trended highs toward 60 degrees
for north central areas, warming to the lower and middle 60s for
east central Kansas as southerly winds around 15 mph are
maintained through mid afternoon when the boundary arrives.
Conditions remain dry through the afternoon as a strong shortwave
trough deepens out west, bringing increasing rain chances by
Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning the pattern sets up
for a rainy early/mid week. By 12z Tuesday, the inverted surface
trof has set up along the central and northern portions of the cwa
while tropical moisture is swept northward over the central
plains. Rain showers expected to lift into the southern counties
in the evening and spread into Nebraska by sunrise. Not much
instability to work with throughout this entire system
progression, and will only carry isolated thunder as a result.
Of interest is PW values which come in at 1 to near 1.5 inches by
12z Tuesday which is about 180% of normal for this time of year.
Without a specific boundary or focusing mechanism in the cwa on
Tuesday would anticipate the moisture and ascent to bring a broad
area of moderate rain throughout the day, before the cold front
associated with the upper trof sweeps through in the overnight
hours. May see some pockets of heavier rain as the front moves
through, but have gone with generally 1-1.5 inches across the area
from evening Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
EC has come in not quite as cold at 850mb as the trof passes and
also not as far south. Cold temps already lagged behind the
moisture and will therefore keep mention of any snow mixed in with
the rain out of the forecast. Will have to see how the cold pool
moves across the northern counties on Wednesday morning into
afternoon as it could be cold/unstable enough to generate a few
flakes. Also will expect falling temperatures on Wednesday
afternoon as colder air comes in. Highs in the 50s on a rainy
Tuesday afternoon will become a dry breezy 40s for Wednesday.
Fortunately temperatures warm up slowly through the end of the
week as zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and the lee
trof/southerly surface winds return on Friday. GFS and EC differ
with the strength of the shortwave that slides across the northern
plains later Friday into Saturday, but with northern track have
kept the warmer drier trend at this time with highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 507 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Main focus is on the winds as gusty southerly winds will persist
into the evening and overnight hours. As a cold front approaches the
region on Monday and slowly tracks southeastward through the area
during the afternoon, the pressure gradient will loosen up with wind speeds
beginning to decrease during the morning hours. Winds will be
veering from the south to the west and northwest during the late morning
and afternoon hours as the front tracks through the area.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-
034>036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE
TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD
SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT
IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV
Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE
PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE
SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.
IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT
THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST
CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS
TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN
EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE ISSUE TO
FOCUS ON FOR TAFS IS THE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON MIXING TAKES PLACE. KGLD AND KMCK COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AT KGLD AND WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE...WITH THE DECOUPLING OF
THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
CONSIDERING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE RAP...NAM...AND GFS...SUGGESTED
IT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FROM
03-06Z FOR KGLD AND 03-08Z FOR KMCK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
156 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
THREAT OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
QUITE HIGH...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THROWN
SOME DOUBT BACK INTO THE EQUATION. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT
THIS LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN IS AN ANOMALY/OUTLIER. THIS PACKAGE
WILL LEAN ON A MIX OF THE CANADIAN...GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN.
A LARGE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COLD AIR
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE AND BECOMING OVERCAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AND REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF GFS GUIDANCE HAS COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY...BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AT THIS TIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
COOLED AS WELL SO THE GFS WOULD BE IN FAVOR OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW LATER ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS THE COOLEST
SOLUTION YET THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN
TO RUN VARIATION WITH THIS MODEL. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS SO HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL
HAS COME IN MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...UP TO 10
DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS IS COMING FROM SOME
PROJECTED WARMING FROM THE WEST AS THE STORM CLEARS OUT EARLIER.
THIS DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN BUT SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION...WILL NEGLECT IT UNLESS THIS SOLUTION BECOMES
PERSISTENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...THE EUROPEAN MODEL NOW
SHOWS A WEAKER...FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS..CANADIAN AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN
WHICH SHOW A STRONGER...SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. MODELS REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THESE LOCATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW WITH SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION ZONE. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST AS
DEPICTED FROM OMEGA FIELDS/CROSS SECTIONS SO THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THIS...THINKING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...A LATER
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FORECAST SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH
LESS SOUTHEAST OF A NORTON TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
ANY SNOW COVER LEFT ON THE GROUND. FROM THURSDAY ON...EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH WARMING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SO HAVE MADE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE ISSUE TO
FOCUS ON FOR TAFS IS THE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON MIXING TAKES PLACE. KGLD AND KMCK COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AT KGLD AND WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE...WITH THE DECOUPLING OF
THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
CONSIDERING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE RAP...NAM...AND GFS...SUGGESTED
IT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FROM
03-06Z FOR KGLD AND 03-08Z FOR KMCK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1224 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
A weak surface high pressure system, oriented from basically north
to south across western Kansas, will be replaced by a more
dominant lee side trough across eastern Colorado by mid day
today. Drier air has been seeping into the far west counties,
such as Hamilton, Stanton, Kearny, and Grant counties this morning.
Temperatures at 2 am CDT were already near 32F or lower, so the
hard freeze warning still seems on track, and will continue it
through 8 am this morning. Little or no clouds are expected today,
except a few high, passing cirrus clouds. There is a broad upper
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, which will move over the
plains by late today. There is not too much upper moisture
evident in the northwest flow, but a few cirrus clouds are usually
seen during the afternoon hours during this pattern. Since the
surface flow will be slow to turn to the southwest, today will
warm up slowly. I may trim max temps back a tad today in our east,
thinking the southwest warming will be delayed. The HRRR and RUC
have max temps slightly cooler than we currently have in our grids,
so one or two degrees should not matter too much. Northwest winds
this morning in associated with the surface high pressure ridge
will be around 10 mph, but once the lee side trough gets
established and southwest flow takes over, wind speeds should be
in the 12 to 15 mph range.
For tonight, I did not change any weather parameters. Mostly clear
skies should continue with upper high pressure migrating east over
Kansas. Nearer the surface, the lee side trough over eastern
Colorado will move southeastward into Oklahoma as a wind shift.
So surface winds will stay up most of the night, and be rather
breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight. The resultant lows
will be elevated from this morning, ending up in the upper 30s to
around 40F degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
The weather pattern will undergo significant changes in the Sunday
through Wednesday time frame. Warm dry and windy conditions are
anticipated Sunday. A rapidly approaching upper longwave trough
creating strong southwest flow aloft will induce enhanced pressure
falls across eastern Colorado. This evolution combined with strong
surface high pressure over the Gulf states should create a 10-13 mb
pressure gradient across western and central Kansas, a strong 50
knot 850 mb level jet streak and reasonably steep low level lapse
rates over the region for a very windy morning and afternoon. A wind
advisory has been hoisted from around 9 am Sunday through early
Sunday evening.
This same approaching trough will generate a strong
potential vorticity anomaly into the southern Rockies by Monday,
allowing an dynamic precipitation system to develop across western
Kansas in the Monday through Tuesday time frame. At this point the
GFS appears to significantly lag the ECMWF in timing, as is also
more aggressive developing a stronger frontogenesis field in the
deeper cold air aloft. Until the forecast time frame draws closer and
models begin to hopefully converge in solution, the best forecast
remains for strong PVA/isentropic lift and warm air advection forced
showers or thunderstorms on Monday with a better chance for strong
cold advection with rain/snow and windy conditions in the Tuesday and
Tuesday night time frame. It appears at this time that the heavier
precipitation would most likely be across northwest Kansas into
Nebraska.
A relatively flat upper ridge redevelops for the rest of the week
with lee troughing across the front range, suggesting warming back
towards normal seasonal high temperatures with likely southerly
and breezy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
Surface high pressure will move southeast into Oklahoma this
afternoon as a trough of low pressure develops in the lee of the
Rockies over eastern Colorado and Wyoming. This will bring
increasing southerly winds to western and central Kansas later
this afternoon and tonight. The pressure gradient increases
significantly on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase to around
30 knots with gusts to 40-45 knots by late morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 39 68 45 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 64 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 38 70 44 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 60 40 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
P28 62 38 67 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM CST Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
303 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
THREAT OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
QUITE HIGH...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THROWN
SOME DOUBT BACK INTO THE EQUATION. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT
THIS LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN IS AN ANOMALY/OUTLIER. THIS PACKAGE
WILL LEAN ON A MIX OF THE CANADIAN...GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN.
A LARGE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COLD AIR
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE AND BECOMING OVERCAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AND REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF GFS GUIDANCE HAS COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY...BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AT THIS TIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
COOLED AS WELL SO THE GFS WOULD BE IN FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW LATER ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS THE COOLEST
SOLUTION YET THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN
TO RUN VARIATION WITH THIS MODEL. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS SO HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL
HAS COME IN MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...UP TO 10
DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS IS COMING FROM SOME
PROJECTED WARMING FROM THE WEST AS THE STORM CLEARS OUT EARLIER.
THIS DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN BUT SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION...WILL NEGLECT IT UNLESS THIS SOLUTION BECOMES
PERSISTENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...THE EUROPEAN MODEL NOW
SHOWS A WEAKER...FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS..CANADIAN AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN
WHICH SHOW A STRONGER...SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. MODELS REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THESE LOCATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW WITH SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION ZONE. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST AS
DEPICTED FROM OMEGA FIELDS/CROSS SECTIONS SO THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THIS...THINKING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...A LATER
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FORECAST SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH
LESS SOUTHEAST OF A NORTON TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
ANY SNOW COVER LEFT ON THE GROUND. FROM THURSDAY ON...EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH WARMING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SO HAVE MADE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY 15Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FRONT RANGE AREAS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
...LONG TERM UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
A weak surface high pressure system, oriented from basically north
to south across western Kansas, will be replaced by a more
dominant lee side trough across eastern Colorado by mid day
today. Drier air has been seeping into the far west counties,
such as Hamilton, Stanton, Kearny, and Grant counties this morning.
Temperatures at 2 am CDT were already near 32F or lower, so the
hard freeze warning still seems on track, and will continue it
through 8 am this morning. Little or no clouds are expected today,
except a few high, passing cirrus clouds. There is a broad upper
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, which will move over the
plains by late today. There is not too much upper moisture
evident in the northwest flow, but a few cirrus clouds are usually
seen during the afternoon hours during this pattern. Since the
surface flow will be slow to turn to the southwest, today will
warm up slowly. I may trim max temps back a tad today in our east,
thinking the southwest warming will be delayed. The HRRR and RUC
have max temps slightly cooler than we currently have in our grids,
so one or two degrees should not matter too much. Northwest winds
this morning in associated with the surface high pressure ridge
will be around 10 mph, but once the lee side trough gets
established and southwest flow takes over, wind speeds should be
in the 12 to 15 mph range.
For tonight, I did not change any weather parameters. Mostly clear
skies should continue with upper high pressure migrating east over
Kansas. Nearer the surface, the lee side trough over eastern
Colorado will move southeastward into Oklahoma as a wind shift.
So surface winds will stay up most of the night, and be rather
breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight. The resultant lows
will be elevated from this morning, ending up in the upper 30s to
around 40F degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
The weather pattern will undergo significant changes in the Sunday
through Wednesday timeframe. Warm dry and windy conditions are
anticipated Sunday. A rapidly approaching upper longwave trough
creating strong southwest flow aloft will induce enhanced pressure
falls across eastern Colorado. This evolution combined with strong
surface high pressure over the Gulf states should create a 10-13 mb
pressure gradient across western and central Kansas, a strong 50
knot 850 mb level jet streak and reasonably steep low level lapse
rates over the region for a very windy morning and afternoon. A wind
advisory has been hoisted from around 9 am Sunday through early
Sunday evening.
This same approaching trough will generate a strong
potential vorticity anomaly into the southern Rockies by Monday,
allowing an dynamic precipitation system to develop across western
Kansas in the Monday through Tuesday timeframe. At this point the
GFS appears to significantly lag the ECMWF in timing, as is also
more aggressive developing a stronger frontogenesis field in the
deeper cold air aloft. Until the forecast timeframe draws closer and
models begin to hopefully converge in solution, the best forecast
remains for strong PVA/isentropic lift and warm air advection forced
showers or thunderstorms on Monday with a better chance for strong
cold advection with rain/snow and windy conditions in the Tuesday and
Tuesday night timeframe. It appears at this time that the heavier
precipitation would most likely be across northwest Kansas into
Nebraska.
A relatively flat upper ridge redevelops for the rest of the week
with lee troughing across the front range, suggesting warming back
towards normal seasonal high temperatures with likely southerly
and breezy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR conditions will prevail through 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the area will maintain light northwest winds this
morning. Winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon, once a
surface trough forms in eastern Colorado. A gentle northwest flow
will continue aloft, as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 39 68 45 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 65 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 66 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 66 38 70 44 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 60 40 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
P28 62 38 67 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM CST Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
A weak surface high pressure system, oriented from basically north
to south across western Kansas, will be replaced by a more
dominant lee side trough across eastern Colorado by mid day
today. Drier air has been seeping into the far west counties,
such as Hamilton, Stanton, Kearny, and Grant counties this morning.
Temperatures at 2 am CDT were already near 32F or lower, so the
hard freeze warning still seems on track, and will continue it
through 8 am this morning. Little or no clouds are expected today,
except a few high, passing cirrus clouds. There is a broad upper
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, which will move over the
plains by late today. There is not too much upper moisture
evident in the northwest flow, but a few cirrus clouds are usually
seen during the afternoon hours during this pattern. Since the
surface flow will be slow to turn to the southwest, today will
warm up slowly. I may trim max temps back a tad today in our east,
thinking the southwest warming will be delayed. The HRRR and RUC
have max temps slightly cooler than we currently have in our grids,
so one or two degrees should not matter too much. Northwest winds
this morning in associated with the surface high pressure ridge
will be around 10 mph, but once the lee side trough gets
established and southwest flow takes over, wind speeds should be
in the 12 to 15 mph range.
For tonight, I did not change any weather parameters. Mostly clear
skies should continue with upper high pressure migrating east over
Kansas. Nearer the surface, the lee side trough over eastern
Colorado will move southeastward into Oklahoma as a wind shift.
So surface winds will stay up most of the night, and be rather
breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight. The resultant lows
will be elevated from this morning, ending up in the upper 30s to
around 40F degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
Saturday night/Sunday:
Winds are expected to stay up in the 10-20 MPH range Saturday night
as a result of a tightening pressure gradient. Overnight minimums for
Sunday morning will be on the more "mild" side as these winds continue.
Expecting lows generally around 40.
On Sunday, upper level wind flow will increase as a trof out west moves
east and amplifies. At the sfc, a lee trof will continue to deepen.
A tight pressure gradient is expected across southwest Kansas. 40-50
kt boundary layer winds do spell out the concern for a wind advisory.
Have increased winds just under criteria, however, it is too early for
a wind advisory. In addition, a 13C-18C 850 mb warm plume will
advect eastward across the region with a downslope SSW wind
component. Have increased maximums across western Kansas into the
low 70sF west and near 70F across south central Kansas as the
overall mesoscale pattern suggests a warm day. Relative humidities
look marginal for fire wx concerns.
Monday and beyond:
On Monday, a front will bisect the region ushered in by the aforementioned
synoptic trof. A warm layer aloft and neutral height tendencies will
limit precipitation chances for most of Monday, until early Tuesday
as the main low level cyclone as resultant increasing isentropic lift
along a strengthening baroclinic zone starts to influence the outlook
area.
For Tuesday, the main trof axis will move across the region. The front
should completely clear the area during this period. Isolated non-severe
thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector. Negative 850 mb temperatures
suggest the possibility for a wintry mix. There is uncertainty due
to the juxtaposition between maximum cold air advection and model
precip, therefore, significant snow accumulations are not expected.
The rest of the forecast will see moderating temperatures and a precipitation
free forecast as upper level ridging develops across the plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR conditions will prevail through 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the area will maintain light northwest winds this
morning. Winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon, once a
surface trough forms in eastern Colorado. A gentle northwest flow
will continue aloft, as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 39 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 65 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 67 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 67 38 72 44 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 62 40 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
P28 64 38 68 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE AIR MASS
UNSATURATED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS IS THE CHALLENGING PART OF
THE FORECAST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE A GOOD BET LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. GFS IS WARM THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST...GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. PROGGED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL...SO THE FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING POTENT. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE SNOW
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF RAIN/NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL...AND ALL RAIN FURTHER EAST. SNOW POTENTIAL NOW IS 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH DUE TO CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS. SO DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY 15Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FRONT RANGE AREAS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1206 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Early morning water vapor loops show a strong impulse moving
southeast into west central Illinois. Although moisture is very
limited...radar and sfc obs indicate a small area of showers north
of kstl. Most of the model guidance /including the 00z
nam...gfs...and sref/ develops some light precip across sw Indiana
and northwest Kentucky this morning. Some recent HRRR guidance has
also shown precip in this area. Therefore...will add isolated
showers for sw Indiana and parts of west Kentucky today as diurnal
heating enhances the activity. Lapse rates will be steep from the
surface to 700 mb by late this morning. High temps across the region
will be very close to mos guidance...mostly in the upper 50s.
Skies will clear rather quickly this evening as the low levels
stabilize and a strong ridge /surface and aloft/ builds east across
Missouri. Low temps will likely be cooler than most computer
guidance due to the very dry air mass and weakening low level winds.
Expect quite a bit of frost and even some freezing temps in the
normally colder low spots. Since the growing season has
ended...there will be no headlines.
A surface ridge will move overhead on Sunday...bringing clear skies
and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s as the 850 mb
thermal trough makes its closest approach.
Southerly return flow will begin to develop Sunday night and
strengthen on Monday. High clouds will stream northeast on
Monday...but there should still be considerable sunshine. Temps will
moderate to about seasonal norms.
.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Friday/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
At the beginning of the long term period, synoptically speaking the
region will be under southwest flow aloft combined with retreating
surface high pressure to our east.
Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast Monday
night as an H5 trough pushes a surface low and associated cold front
toward our region. Latest guidance suggests the leading edge of
precipitation only making it into our far western counties by 12Z
Tuesday.
With flow aloft remaining out of the southwest, it will be nearly
parallel to the frontal boundary, so it`s eastward progress will be
rather slow. The best chances for precipitation will be Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the front slides slowly across the area.
Precipitation chances will linger over the eastern third of our CWA
on Thursday before the system pulls off to the east. Instability
remains rather weak through the period so thunderstorm activity
should be somewhat limited. We are not looking for severe weather at
this time, but due to the slow movement of this system, models are
indicating precipitation banding. With models also showing surface
dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range with PWAT values >1.50
inches, our biggest threat with this system may very well be locally
heavy rainfall.
In the wake of this system, surface high pressure and rising heights
aloft should keep the region dry through the remainder of the
period. Temperatures at or slightly above normal will continue
through the first half of the long term period, then drop back to at
or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Gusty NW winds will prevail through the afternoon, with generally
sct-bkn clouds just above MVFR threshold. By 06Z, skies should
become clear with light NNW winds slowly becoming NNE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.Short term.../Today through Monday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Early morning water vapor loops show a strong impulse moving
southeast into west central Illinois. Although moisture is very
limited...radar and sfc obs indicate a small area of showers north
of kstl. Most of the model guidance /including the 00z
nam...gfs...and sref/ develops some light precip across sw Indiana
and northwest Kentucky this morning. Some recent HRRR guidance has
also shown precip in this area. Therefore...will add isolated
showers for sw Indiana and parts of west Kentucky today as diurnal
heating enhances the activity. Lapse rates will be steep from the
surface to 700 mb by late this morning. High temps across the region
will be very close to mos guidance...mostly in the upper 50s.
Skies will clear rather quickly this evening as the low levels
stabilize and a strong ridge /surface and aloft/ builds east across
Missouri. Low temps will likely be cooler than most computer
guidance due to the very dry air mass and weakening low level winds.
Expect quite a bit of frost and even some freezing temps in the
normally colder low spots. Since the growing season has
ended...there will be no headlines.
A surface ridge will move overhead on Sunday...bringing clear skies
and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s as the 850 mb
thermal trough makes its closest approach.
Southerly return flow will begin to develop Sunday night and
strengthen on Monday. High clouds will stream northeast on
Monday...but there should still be considerable sunshine. Temps will
moderate to about seasonal norms.
.Long Term.../Monday night through Friday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
At the beginning of the long term period, synoptically speaking the
region will be under southwest flow aloft combined with retreating
surface high pressure to our east.
Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast Monday
night as an H5 trough pushes a surface low and associated cold front
toward our region. Latest guidance suggests the leading edge of
precipitation only making it into our far western counties by 12Z
Tuesday.
With flow aloft remaining out of the southwest, it will be nearly
parallel to the frontal boundary, so it`s eastward progress will be
rather slow. The best chances for precipitation will be Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the front slides slowly across the area.
Precipitation chances will linger over the eastern third of our CWA
on Thursday before the system pulls off to the east. Instability
remains rather weak through the period so thunderstorm activity
should be somewhat limited. We are not looking for severe weather at
this time, but due to the slow movement of this system, models are
indicating precipitation banding. With models also showing surface
dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range with PWAT values >1.50
inches, our biggest threat with this system may very well be locally
heavy rainfall.
In the wake of this system, surface high pressure and rising heights
aloft should keep the region dry through the remainder of the
period. Temperatures at or slightly above normal will continue
through the first half of the long term period, then drop back to at
or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
A strong upper level disturbance has spread some light showers into
southern Illinois early this morning. These showers will move across
the kevv/kowb taf sites during the morning. Any vsby restrictions
will be brief and not mentioned in tafs. As daytime heating
commences...expect widespread cu or stratocu clouds. Cigs should be
mainly vfr...though intervals of mvfr cigs are likely in the
kevv/kowb areas this afternoon. Winds will increase and become
rather gusty from the northwest today.
Skies will clear out this evening as the disturbance moves away and
the lower atmosphere stabilizes. Winds will diminish below 5 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JAP
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.Short term.../Today through Monday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Early morning water vapor loops show a strong impulse moving
southeast into west central Illinois. Although moisture is very
limited...radar and sfc obs indicate a small area of showers north
of kstl. Most of the model guidance /including the 00z
nam...gfs...and sref/ develops some light precip across sw Indiana
and northwest Kentucky this morning. Some recent HRRR guidance has
also shown precip in this area. Therefore...will add isolated
showers for sw Indiana and parts of west Kentucky today as diurnal
heating enhances the activity. Lapse rates will be steep from the
surface to 700 mb by late this morning. High temps across the region
will be very close to mos guidance...mostly in the upper 50s.
Skies will clear rather quickly this evening as the low levels
stabilize and a strong ridge /surface and aloft/ builds east across
Missouri. Low temps will likely be cooler than most computer
guidance due to the very dry air mass and weakening low level winds.
Expect quite a bit of frost and even some freezing temps in the
normally colder low spots. Since the growing season has
ended...there will be no headlines.
A surface ridge will move overhead on Sunday...bringing clear skies
and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s as the 850 mb
thermal trough makes its closest approach.
Southerly return flow will begin to develop Sunday night and
strengthen on Monday. High clouds will stream northeast on
Monday...but there should still be considerable sunshine. Temps will
moderate to about seasonal norms.
.Long Term.../Monday night through Friday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
At the beginning of the long term period, synoptically speaking the
region will be under southwest flow aloft combined with retreating
surface high pressure to our east.
Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast Monday
night as an H5 trough pushes a surface low and associated cold front
toward our region. Latest guidance suggests the leading edge of
precipitation only making it into our far western counties by 12Z
Tuesday.
With flow aloft remaining out of the southwest, it will be nearly
parallel to the frontal boundary, so it`s eastward progress will be
rather slow. The best chances for precipitation will be Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the front slides slowly across the area.
Precipitation chances will linger over the eastern third of our CWA
on Thursday before the system pulls off to the east. Instability
remains rather weak through the period so thunderstorm activity
should be somewhat limited. We are not looking for severe weather at
this time, but due to the slow movement of this system, models are
indicating precipitation banding. With models also showing surface
dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range with PWAT values >1.50
inches, our biggest threat with this system may very well be locally
heavy rainfall.
In the wake of this system, surface high pressure and rising heights
aloft should keep the region dry through the remainder of the
period. Temperatures at or slightly above normal will continue
through the first half of the long term period, then drop back to at
or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Compact mid/upper level system will dive southeast through the
area early Saturday and then cooler surface high pressure will
surge eastward across the area Saturday.
Patches of mid-level clouds will stream over the area through the
night, then stratocu will develop over most of the area by mid-
morning. These clouds may linger through the entire afternoon and
possibly into the evening. There may be just enough shallow
instability to allow for some light showers in the east from late
morning through the afternoon. These would likely result in only
some sprinkles and should have little impact on aviation. Ceilings
should be VFR, but a brief period or two of MVFR ceilings cannot
be completely ruled out, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Northwest
winds will gust into the teens throughout the area for much of the
day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JAP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND BECOMING A BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE EXITING COLD FRONT AND THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION - A DAY APART. THIS IN-BETWEEN DAY WILL BE CROSS BETWEEN
YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW IN TERMS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP/SKY COVER. NOT AS
WARM AS FRIDAY BUT TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVG. A
BRISK WLY WIND LATER THIS AFTN WILL START THE PROCESS OF DRYING
OUT THE AIR...SETTING US UP FOR MORE OF A FALL-LIKE DAY ON SUNDAY.
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...A FRACTION OF WHAT BANKS UP AGAINST THE WRN SIDES OF THE
APLCNS. HI-RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND SOME WRF RUNS
PAINT THE SERN CWA - NAMELY LOWER SRN MD AND THE SRN DC SUBURBS W/
SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BEFORE THE ENTIRE
UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST.
FROM PREV DISC...UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
TNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COOL...ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX
WITH AND THEN TURN TO SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WRN
ALLEGHENY FRONT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...UPR TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THAT NIGHT.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH CRYSTAL SUNNY SKIES AS THE 1035MB SFC
BUILDS IN. CHILLY NORTH WIND GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 40S. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COLD. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S INLAND...LOW TO MID 30S URBAN AND NEAR
SHORE. WIND CHILLS EAS
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY
WITH A WEDGE RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT A
RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
IN WHAT IS THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...ANOTHER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.
FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TDA AND TNGT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTN...GUSTING 15-20 KT.
VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY
AND PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CONTINUED VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS AFTN FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
AND NRN CHSPK BAY. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS TNGT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCA EXPANDS FOR ALL
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUST
POTENTIAL OF 25 TO 30 KT. SCA WILL NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ535.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ536.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...JRK/BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH
SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN
AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO
9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING
OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING
FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS
(AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP
SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM
WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT
HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE
WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP
TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN
ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A
QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST.
ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH
OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST
CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME
BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD
SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY
NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
AFTER SUNSET.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH
LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN
PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER
NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD
STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS
GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E
AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH
THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF
PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE
VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN
OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL
TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT
OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS
UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS
FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS
SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND
RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY
LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE
OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE
NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF
A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN
WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND
NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT
TIME.
SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
RELATIVELY COOL AIR FLOWING SOUTHWEST OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 3 TAF SITES. THINK THE BIGGEST
CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE STRONGER SHOWERS NEAR AND AFFECTING
KSAW AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KIWD. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND
EXPECT A MESO-LOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AT KCMX DURING
THE EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND TRANSITION ALL
THREE SITES TO VFR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW
PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS
DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW
PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A
PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO
GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Sky conditions across the area have certainly been chaotic this
morning. However, as we head into the afternoon cloud trends
should become a bit more uniform as heating begins to break up the
rather solid cloud deck that currently extends from the eastern
Ozarks into south central Illinois, while it also will tend to
cause quite a bit of dirunal cloud development in the relatively
clear area currently over northeast Missouri and parts of central
Illinois. I have also continued a mention of a few sprinkles, as
HRRR and to a lessern extent the RUC are continuing a subtle hint
of precip as weak shortwave pushes into the are during max
heating.
Updated forecast reflecting these trends will be out shortly.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Northwest flow shortwaves will move sewd through our forecast area
today. One shortwave was over sern IA and nern MO, and another on
its heels over wrn MN and ern portions of South Dakota and
Nebraska. These shortwaves will not only bring cloud cover to our
area, but a few sprinkles as well. Small, light showers or at least
sprinkles were moving through portions fo west central Illinois
early this mrng ahead of the first shortwave. These shortwaves will
also bring a reinforcing shot of colder air to the region today.
The models bring the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm sewd through our
forecast area today. The relatively weak caa coupled with cloud
cover will lead to cooler high temperatures today compared to
yesterday. Todays high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
(Tonight - Sunday)
NW upper level flow will persist thru this period, maintaining
another 24 hours of cool and dry weather. It will be clear skies
for much of this period as well, with cirrus clouds increasing
Sunday afternoon. Preferred the warmer end of MOS temps for Sunday
maxes.
(Sunday Night - Early Thursday)
Back to SW upper level flow and a mostly open Gulf of Mexico for the
lion`s share of next week, which promises another stretch of wet
weather for our region. This period is expected to end with passage
of the main upper level TROF and surface cold front.
Rich and deep moisture will surge northward on Monday, setting the
stage for an outbreak of rain/showers from Monday night thru
Wednesday night, as a series of disturbance rolls thru, culminating
in the main TROF at the very end. There are some timing issues as
can be expected between the models, with the GFS a bit speedier than
the ECMWF, and this bias was reflected in the last system as well,
with the slower ECMWF winning out more. Similar to last week`s
system, it does not look favorable for widespread thunder but rather
isolated/imbedded within a larger area of precipitation. The
exception, of course, is if any organized strong-severe convection
can get going, but that does not look like a good possibility at
this time. What does look like a good possibility is widespread
beneficial rainfall totals of an inch or more during this period
with several waves of RA/SHRA in a very moist column for November.
Convection will merely be icing on the cake.
S flow at the lo levels will attempt to push temps back above normal
for daytime maxes, but the thick cloud cover and rain expected will
limit this pretty severely now that we are in November.
(Late Thursday - Friday)
In the wake of the TROF pushing E of our region, a brief NW flow
regime is expected to take hold once again with slightly below
average temps and dry weather.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
The stratus that developed across the southern half of the CWA
shortly after daybreak has now advected south of all TAF sites.
For the early afternoon hours considerable diurnally driven cloud
cover will be the rule at all TAF locations, with bases 3-5kft.
Subtle shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft will dive into
the area and this could even generate a few showers, but expect
these to be very spotty and odds are very low that they would have
impacts on any aviation weather near terminal points. Fairly
strong pressure gradient and deep mixing should allow northwest
winds to gust to around 20kts at most areas.
These clouds should rapidly dissipate amd winds will quickly
diminish in the 22-02z time frame as surface ridge builds into the
mid-Mississippi valley heading into the evening. Clear skies and
light winds are antiicipated during the overnight hours, although
some steam fog with MVFR/IFR vsbys is possible at climatologically
favored KSUS and KCPS.
Specifics for KSTL: Fairly typical early Fall weather conditions
expected this afternoon and into the early evening. Early on
expecting bkn clouds with bases between 3-5kft and northwest
winds gusting to around 20kts, but winds will diminish and clouds
will quickly dissipate heading into the early evening as heating
wanes and as surface ridge builds into the region. Clear skies and
light winds should then dominate tonight and into Sunday morning.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1144 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Sky conditions across the area have certainly been chaotic this
morning. However, as we head into the afternoon cloud trends
should become a bit more uniform as heating begins to break up the
rather solid cloud deck that currently extends from the eastern
Ozarks into south central Illinois, while it also will tend to
cause quite a bit of dirunal cloud development in the relatively
clear area currently over northeast Missouri and parts of central
Illinois. I have also continued a mention of a few sprinkles, as
HRRR and to a lessern extent the RUC are continuing a subtle hint
of precip as weak shortwave pushes into the are during max
heating.
Updated forecast reflecting these trends will be out shortly.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Northwest flow shortwaves will move sewd through our forecast area
today. One shortwave was over sern IA and nern MO, and another on
its heels over wrn MN and ern portions of South Dakota and
Nebraska. These shortwaves will not only bring cloud cover to our
area, but a few sprinkles as well. Small, light showers or at least
sprinkles were moving through portions fo west central Illinois
early this mrng ahead of the first shortwave. These shortwaves will
also bring a reinforcing shot of colder air to the region today.
The models bring the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm sewd through our
forecast area today. The relatively weak caa coupled with cloud
cover will lead to cooler high temperatures today compared to
yesterday. Todays high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
(Tonight - Sunday)
NW upper level flow will persist thru this period, maintaining
another 24 hours of cool and dry weather. It will be clear skies
for much of this period as well, with cirrus clouds increasing
Sunday afternoon. Preferred the warmer end of MOS temps for Sunday
maxes.
(Sunday Night - Early Thursday)
Back to SW upper level flow and a mostly open Gulf of Mexico for the
lion`s share of next week, which promises another stretch of wet
weather for our region. This period is expected to end with passage
of the main upper level TROF and surface cold front.
Rich and deep moisture will surge northward on Monday, setting the
stage for an outbreak of rain/showers from Monday night thru
Wednesday night, as a series of disturbance rolls thru, culminating
in the main TROF at the very end. There are some timing issues as
can be expected between the models, with the GFS a bit speedier than
the ECMWF, and this bias was reflected in the last system as well,
with the slower ECMWF winning out more. Similar to last week`s
system, it does not look favorable for widespread thunder but rather
isolated/imbedded within a larger area of precipitation. The
exception, of course, is if any organized strong-severe convection
can get going, but that does not look like a good possibility at
this time. What does look like a good possibility is widespread
beneficial rainfall totals of an inch or more during this period
with several waves of RA/SHRA in a very moist column for November.
Convection will merely be icing on the cake.
S flow at the lo levels will attempt to push temps back above normal
for daytime maxes, but the thick cloud cover and rain expected will
limit this pretty severely now that we are in November.
(Late Thursday - Friday)
In the wake of the TROF pushing E of our region, a brief NW flow
regime is expected to take hold once again with slightly below
average temps and dry weather.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Upper level disturbances dropping sewd through the area today
will bring low-mid level cloudiness along with isolated light
showers or sprinkles. The majority of the cloud cover should be
VFR with the models indicating most of the moisture around
4000-6000 ft in height. This cloud cover should shift se of the
taf sites by this evng as subsidence increases over the region
with the sfc ridge across the Plains building ewd into our area.
Wly sfc winds in the St Louis metro area should become nwly as
they already have in UIN and COU. The surface wind will also
become gusty by late mrng. The wind will become light this evng
as the sfc ridge axis moves ewd through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR, low-mid level cloud cover will advect sewd
through STL today with a brief sprinkle possible. The clouds
should move out of STL by early evng. The sfc wind will strengthen
and become gusty later this mrng. The sfc wind will become light
this evng, then sely by late Sunday mrng as the sfc ridge shifts
east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CLOUDS AT KOMA
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 08Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH BY 23-01Z.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
.A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND AS WE FALL BACK TO STANDARD TIME...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON SUNDAY...
A 140KT JET OVER ALBERTA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN H5 TROF OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES AT 12Z. SHORTWAVE
TROF ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONGER WAVE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME SATURATION AROUND 750MB
AND THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING.
THE RH PROGS THROUGH TONIGHT DO BRING CONTINUED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
WITH THE H3 JET TRANSLATING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH AT A QUICK SPEED AS WELL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE
TREND IS FOR THE MOISTURE IS TO HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IS EXITING OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES. THE LATEST WSR-
88D SHOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS AND A POCKET OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 18Z AND BY 20Z THERE WAS A NICE
ARC OF SHOWERS OVER THE MIDLANDS. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BULK OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OR EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH HAVE SOME MINOR PRECIP
SWINGING THROUGH AND THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE RADAR BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO
THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT FOR NOW...WILL PLAN ON A MENTION
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND OUR NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS GOOD
LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 50S WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. H85 WINDS OF 45 TO 55KTS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30MPH SUSTAINED...THUS
HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RH IS STILL LACKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING...SO HAVE SO LOW POPS
MENTIONED.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...THE MAIN
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY ARE
IN REGARDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS THE GFS WOULD
INITIALLY TAKE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LIFT THIS BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE
SWEEPING IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN
ODDS TO THE EC AND FOR MOST PART GEM THAT FOR THE MOST PART KEEPS
THE FRONT STATIONARY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IS SWEEPS SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH OF I80 ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
POSITIVE NATURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT THIS IS OUR FAVORED SOLUTION AS WELL. THIS RESULTED IN THE
LOWERING OF HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
2/3RD OF THE FA WHERE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TMPS BELOW GOING HIGHS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE
FAR MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH JUST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER /I.E.
BOONE...ANTELOPE...KNOX COUNTIES/ WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT AND OPEN NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE ENDING OF
PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS AND
BRING THE MIX OF RA/SN A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE COOLED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW GOING MOS GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH YET. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
546 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND WILL CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF SPRINKLES PERHAPS
IN THE FAR NW...WITH THE RAP INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP WITH MAINLY MID CLOUDS...BUT MONITOR
FOR NEXT UPDATE. SFC TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD GO FAIRLY CALM NEAR TROUGH BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ON MONDAY. MINIMAL TWEAKS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO PCPN CHANCES MON. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND THUS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS
NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM. AS OF MID AFTERNOON WINDS WERE STILL
HOWLING PRETTY GOOD. MOST OF THE WIND ADVISORY AREA IS STILL WELL
WITHIN CRITERIA. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 00Z MON. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING TONIGHT SO DESPITE THE DECREASING
WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE FA LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY SWITCHING THE WINDS TO
THE WEST AND BRINGING IN SOME COOLER TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN BREAKING OUT MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WEST WINDS WILL GET PRETTY GUSTY BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE VALLEY. SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT BUT THIS TIME WINDS LOOK TO STAY UP KEEPING
IT FROM GETTING TOO COLD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MODELS CONTINUE THEIR TRENDS FROM PRIOR RUNS FOR THE TUE PCPN
EVENT. AMERICAN MODELS KEEP THE ENTIRE FA DRY WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF
KEEP SOME LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AFTER COORDINATING
WITH OFFICES TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP IT DRY. WED LOOKS PRETTY
NICE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A BIT MORE SUN.
FOR WED NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. FOLLOWING
PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY BRIEF PERIOD OF NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS FOLLOWED BY MID LEVEL RIDGING FOR DRY PERIOD. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVES IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR GOOD CHANCES
FOR PCPN. INITIALLY COULD BE A MIX WITH ALL SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AT OR BLO AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH HERE COULD BE
SOME MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR BJI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
328 AM PDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE
ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. COOL...BLUSTERY AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH THE
FRONT...REACHING THE CASCADE PASSES BY AFTERNOON AND ACCUMULATING
SEVERAL INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLY WET NOVEMBER WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...DEEPENING BELOW 1000
MB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AS INDICATED BY BUOY 46206 OFF VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR CAPE
FLATTERY...WHICH IS WHERE THE 06Z NAM PLACES THE LOW AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z WRF-GFS HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA ON THE POSITION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW...WILL BE LEANING
HEAVILY ON THAT GUIDANCE FOR OUR FORECAST THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE
00Z ECMWF APPEARS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAST WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW...THE OVERALL PICTURE PAINTED BY THE MODEL DOES NOT COMPARE
WELL WITH WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING OFFSHORE THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLUS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH LESS CONSISTENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS VERSUS THE GFS. SUSPECT THE LOW WILL BE IN THE
992-996 MB RANGE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FLATTERY AROUND 6 AM
THIS MORNING.
ALL THIS SAID...EVEN THE MOST BULLISH MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THE LOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. IT WILL STILL
BE WINDY...W-NW GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH. WAS TEMPTED TO CANCEL THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS WELL...BUT
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION COULD NIP ASTORIA
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. AREAS TILLAMOOK
SOUTHWARD HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF SEEING SUCH WINDS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE AN IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST...WITH
THE GREATEST FOCUS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. 09Z RAP MODEL AND 06Z
NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW 50-60 KT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS SHOULD EASILY SURFACE. THUS THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE S WA COAST LOOKS TO BE IN THE BEST SHAPE.
ONE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THIS WIND WARNING IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE W-NW...WHICH COULD CAUSE MORE DAMAGE
THAN THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENTS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE FAIRLY
RARE ALONG OUR COAST...SO VEGETATION MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME STANDING
UP AGAINST SUCH WIND.
INLAND AREAS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS WELL...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH
LIKELY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE CASCADES WILL BE WINDY BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND SNOW LEVELS DRAMATICALLY LOWER TO BELOW
THE PASSES.
THIS BRINGS US TO THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS STORM. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SET UP A HEAVY SNOW EVENT
FOR THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET BY
MIDDAY...WITH STEADY OROGRAPHIC FLOW LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE 8-16 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR AND ABOVE PASS LEVEL...A SOLID SNOW ADVISORY FOR
24-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. OFTEN TIMES IN THESE STRONG OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW SITUATIONS MODELS WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE QPF...BUT OUR CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO OUR QPF/SNOW FORECAST.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A STRONG
COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. 06Z NAM SHOWS 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C OVER THE PORTLAND METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD TRIGGER A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD COME WITH SMALL HAIL
AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ALTOGETHER. HOWEVER ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS BACK UP MONDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN FOR THE DISTRICT. ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD KEEP DECENT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES IN THE PICTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
A DRY DAY THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
THERE STILL REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHAT COULD BE ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST
THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN BRINGS IN A LOW VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
MOVING ONSHORE TODAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND THE 06Z GFS SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND TAKES MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING
IN NEXT WEEKEND. SO...KEPT POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO OR A BIT ABOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS LIKELY POPS
FOR THE MOST PART. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...STEADY RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE DETERIORATED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND
DECREASED VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THE PROMINENT CAT...BUT BRIEF
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT NEARS. THE
QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE BY 12Z...THEN INTO THE
CASCADES AFTER 16Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY SITES. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO A SHOWER PATTERN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...BUT
PERIODS OF MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTY
S WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS A FRONT BRINGS STEADY RAIN. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. EXPECT
TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO COME UP RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ONSHORE AFTER 12Z...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST SO NUDGED WINDS DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OR WATERS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
UP NORTH OFF THE WA COAST...WHERE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 KT
RANGE STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL KEEP
GALES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO
DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
EXPECT CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO BUILD QUICKLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. SEAS MAY REACH NEAR 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK W TO NW
WINDS ON SAT WILL MAINTAIN CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...SEAS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING...FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS BY SUN NIGHT. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH
OREGON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME
REINFORCED BY COLDER CANADIAN AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER AND MOISTER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NC MTNS THIS AFTN. THEY WILL QUICKLY PUSH OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NC/SC LINE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS WILL BE RAISED A LITTLE IN THIS AREA PER THE
OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND SPC 4KM WRF.
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE FINALLY MOVED
OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE NOW SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
SHORT WAVE OVER MIDDLE TN. RAISED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THOUGH
THEY SHOULD START TO MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY NOON. AT LEAST I HOPE
SO. IF WE MAINTAIN A POOL OF HIGHER BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS THE
BETTER FORCING SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST...A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW TSTMS WOULD RESULT.
AS OF 700 AM EDT...LOW CLOUD IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE BEST COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE PIEDMONT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. LIGHT W TO NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES
TO AID SLOW DRYING...BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER IN ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 8 TO 9 AM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DIG EWD THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THE
WAVE...BUT ROBUST LAPSE RATES OF 6+ DEG C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
WILL WARRANT LOW END HIGH MTN CHC POPS TODAY AS WELL AS AN ISOLD
SHOWER MENTION E OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS AS THE TROUGH
PASSES...BUT WILL FEATURE MAINLY TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN VERSUS
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE MIXED LAYER WILL BECOME RATHER DEEP THIS
AFTN...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH E OF THE MTNS.
WHILE THE MTNS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR
MAXES...DOWNSLOPING WILL WARM FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E TONIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL CHANNELED
VORTICITY MAY ARRIVE IN THE NW FLOW OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...NW FLOW
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN MTNS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR SNOW LEVELS
TO FALL APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND QPF REMAINS VERY
LIMITED ON ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ADVERTISED IN THE HIGH MTNS. EXPECT MAINLY 30S MTNS TO LOWER
40S PIEDMONT FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE REGION
SUN NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A 590 DM H5
HIGH WILL BUILD OFF THE SE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH N WINDS VEERING
TO THE NE BY MON AND CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. A
PERSISTENT CAA NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES WARMING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE OH AND TN RIVER
VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...AND THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THE DEPARTING
TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES...A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FORM NE TO E. MEANWHILE...MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP OVER THE SURFACE
RIDGE. POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...WHERE UPGLIDE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXHIBIT THE BEST OVERLAP.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT BECOME RATHER LIGHT...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW....WHILE
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT.
DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LAST PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE TN BORDER IN MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL DAYBREAK FRIDAY. COLD
ADVECTION COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION END ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION
FRIDAY WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING PRODUCING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. VEERING WINDS WIL END DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ON SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NC MTNS EARLY THIS AFTN.
MANY MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THE SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20-22 UTC. I/VE ADDED VCSH AND GONE WITH A BKN CIG
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FORTUNATELY THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH.
HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER THE HIGH-BASED SHRA MAY MIX DOWN
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST
AT 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THE REST OF THE AFTN...TURNING OUT
OF THE NW THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE MTNS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. I ADDED VCSH TO THE NC SITES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
A LITTLE LONGER OVER THE UPSTATE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH A TEMPO YET...THOUGH I/M CLOSE AT KAVL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WSW OVER THE UPSTATE...AND FROM THE NW UP THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE HIGH-BASED
SHRA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF TSTM. NOT EXPECTING ANY CIG OR
VSBY PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...STRONG DRYING WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER TO THE N. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1122 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. 2
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK.
HOWEVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN DURING THE TAF
PD WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH
FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE CURRENTLY BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND WRF. SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AREAWIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACCORDINGLY. REST OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TWEAKS MADE BASED ON CURRENT
OBS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK IN ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
EVENING. 2 SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN
DURING THE TAF PD WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...LIGHT SHWR CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WX
PATTERN MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.
PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD START OFF THE EVENING...BUT BY MID EVENING...
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
ALOFT...TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR GENERALLY MOCLDY SKIES
WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE...AS THERE MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO EXPECT AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOWER 60S...AROUND
60 PLATEAU. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID STATE THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S AND HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AS THIS
COLDER AIRMASS WORKS ACROSS THE MID STATE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE MON...TUE...WED...WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMUP TREND
WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS AS THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WILL BRING US TO THE COOLER TEMPS OVER THIS WEEKEND LIFTS INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND PUTS US INTO A SELY SFC FLOW AND SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE MID STATE AREA WED INTO THU. LATEST GFS/EURO NOT SO FAR APART
AS WITH THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING A HUNDRED MILE
OR TWO FASTER. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING BUT UP POPS ON WED NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AND MADE A WX TRANSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU W TO
E AS SFC FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID STATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THE 500MB TROUGH CAUSING THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF WI
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE
OUT THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS
THROUGH...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF MADISON. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE COLD AIR TROUGH ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL
AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
HANG ON AFTER 7 PM...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET SO LEFT THE EVENING WEATHER DRY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN. 925MB TEMPS OF 0C TO 2C TONIGHT AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS AROUND
30...COOLEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING IN THE FAVORABLE
LOW SPOTS AS WELL.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS WI ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS LONGER. WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT AND MON DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON
MON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS POSSIBLY
LEADING TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL STALL OVER SRN
WI MON NT AND TUE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NWD FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO WRN WI BY LATE TUE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING THE ROCKIES. LOW POPS TO
CONTINUE MON NT INTO TUE AM DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES TO THEN INCREASE TUE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MILD GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N-S TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AND
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WI LATE TUE NT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PWS OVER ONE INCH AND GOOD LIFT WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NT WITH NWLY WINDS AND COLD...DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASING.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE
TROUGHS/RIDGES. A WEAK SLY SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN WI EXCEPT IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD
MORNING...EXPECT MVFR FOG IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS.
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
EVENING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SUN EVE THROUGH TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO...RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO
SHORTWAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TROUGH ARE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE 850MB/925MB FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW IS DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...NOTED
BY RAP 925MB TEMPS OF 0-2C NOW COMPARED TO 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS
WHICH REPORTED 4-5C. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRATUS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRIEFLY
CLEARING OUT LAST EVENING. TO THE NORTH SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
A SURFACE TROUGH...EVEN COOLER AIR AND MORE STRATUS DOES ACCOMPANY
IT. OFF TO OUR WEST...CLEARING IS TRYING TO MARCH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOVING THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AND DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GIVEN ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE CLEARING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK INTO AND
PROBABLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WISCONSIN LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN STRATUS THE LONGEST...AIDED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TOO
DROPPING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK...BUT THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
HAVING MORE SUN TODAY WILL HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS ADVECTED IN THIS MORNING. STILL...WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY
PROGGED BETWEEN 1-3C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. AT 00Z...MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...
BY 12Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. THUS...COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
WENT NEAR/BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. 02.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
DIG AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY 00Z TUESDAY...CAUSING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE 3 PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...
1. THE FIRST IS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO WHICH GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL SATURATION. THE 02.00Z NAM DEPICTS A DRY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY WHEREAS THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
ALL DEPICT SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARDS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DURING LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ISSUES...THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS AND RAISED
CHANCES.
2. THE SECOND IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT TO NEAR
I-35 IN MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS OF A WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION FORMING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. HERE TOO LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD
COME INTO PLAY...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
EXISTS TO INCREASE CHANCES TOWARDS 50.
3. THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOST SIGNIFICANT COMES OUT OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUE...LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WED. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS COMPLETELY EXITED BY NOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE...NOW TOWARDS 80 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING THAT REQUIRES WATCHING IS IF DYNAMIC COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD PLAY A ROLE AND TRANSITION SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN
OUR NORTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCERNS...WINDS ARE ALSO
OF CONCERN...PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE 925MB WINDS
PICKING UP TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO 35-50 KT FOR 03Z TO 12Z
MONDAY. THE NAM IS BY THE FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
WINDS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 30
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WE
WILL BE HEADING BACK TO RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS DRY AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ENTERING PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP UPPER
PATTERN EVOLVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEXT 24 HOURS. AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
LONG LASTING TROUGH FINALLY LOSENS GRIP ONLY HAVE TO MONITOR LOW
CLOUDS /MVFR/ ACROSS WISCONSIN HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS WEST OF THE RIVER. EXPECTING CLEARING AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT.
HAD SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TOWARDS MORNING WITH
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH AND DECOUPLING. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE A
SMALL WINDOW WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO
TIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING. WHILE
COULD DEVELOP SHALLOW INVERSION AND SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MIXED
LAYER ABOVE THAT AND STRONGER WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY IMPACT AT AIRPORTS.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN U.S. SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE. COULD SEE PEAK WINDS ABOVE 30 KTS
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THREAT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS ALOFT REALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1154 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST. CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS THROUGH...CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MADISON. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
THE COLD AIR TROUGH ALOFT. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST OF MADISON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CUMULUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TO CROSS NE WI INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STILL A CHANCE
FOR LGT SHRA WITH FORCING ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WHICH BISECTS STATE AT 00Z SUNDAY...AND IS OVER EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS TO OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP LIGHT QPF OVER NE HALF OF CWA
THIS MORNING AND THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PRODUCING SOME OMEGA.
MOIST LAYER ONLY UP TO AROUND 700 MB...BUT WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SO ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
COLD ADVECTION DROPS 850 MB TEMPS FROM CURRENT 0C TO -2C TO -3C TO
-4C BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND 925MB TEMPS COOLING FROM +2C TO +4C TO +1C
TO +3C WITHIN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WITH CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE
HARD TO CRACK THE MID 40S IN THE EAST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 925 MB
TEMPS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
UPPER 40S IN THE WEST.
A SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF 850 MB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH
BEGINNINGS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS 850 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFT OVER
STATE...BUT LITTLE CHANGE AT 925MB. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THINNING
CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
REGION...WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH
MID 30S RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN LAKES. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW
SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
ALLOWS FOR A SUBTLE REBOUND IN 925 TEMPS...WITH SOME WESTERN AREAS
SEEING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST. STRONG SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW SETS IN. TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTED HIGH AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE...SO SSE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 50S AS 925 TEMPS RISE
FURTHER THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON
QPF INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL RETAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS WHICH
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN THE EXTREME WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WET PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. 45-55 KNOT 850
MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET TAKES AIM ON THE CWA. STRONG JET DYNAMICS
WILL BRING SURFACE/850 LOW NORTHEAST INTO WI WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIME PERIOD. ALLBLEND SHOWING LIKELY POPS BUT GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS WILL NUDGE INTO CATEGORICAL.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TRAILING SURFACE/850 THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE EAST. FROPA
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL THERMAL POOL TO
SETTLE IN. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING THINGS DRYING OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE GEM IS A SMIDGE SLOWER LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO PER COLLAB WITH LOT AND GRB WILL
HANG ONTO AN EVENING POP FOR NOW TO BLENDING PURPOSES.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH ONLY ELONGATED SHEAR VORT ON WESTERN SIDE
OF TROUGH. MODELS DRY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
OVERALL CHILLY DAY WITH 925 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS POTENTIALLY
LOWER THAN CURRENT ALLBLEND GUIDANCE. PERHAPS LOW 40S AT BEST.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH IN THE PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN 925 TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
CELSIUS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SKY COVER TRICKY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AS MVFR DECK
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION AT THE MOMENT...WITH GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CIGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CIGS APPROACHING
KMSN ARE MAINLY VFR AND WILL TRY TO KEEP THEM THERE. EASTERN SITES
WILL BE AT MVFR UNTIL 18Z THEN RISE TO VFR...WITH VCSH WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COME UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LATE THIRD PERIOD/FOURTH
PERIOD TIMING WILL HOLD OFF HEADLINE FOR NOW BUT PUT LIKELY WORDING
IN NSH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
648 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO...RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO
SHORTWAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TROUGH ARE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE 850MB/925MB FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW IS DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...NOTED
BY RAP 925MB TEMPS OF 0-2C NOW COMPARED TO 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS
WHICH REPORTED 4-5C. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRATUS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRIEFLY
CLEARING OUT LAST EVENING. TO THE NORTH SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
A SURFACE TROUGH...EVEN COOLER AIR AND MORE STRATUS DOES ACCOMPANY
IT. OFF TO OUR WEST...CLEARING IS TRYING TO MARCH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOVING THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AND DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GIVEN ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE CLEARING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK INTO AND
PROBABLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WISCONSIN LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN STRATUS THE LONGEST...AIDED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TOO
DROPPING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK...BUT THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
HAVING MORE SUN TODAY WILL HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS ADVECTED IN THIS MORNING. STILL...WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY
PROGGED BETWEEN 1-3C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. AT 00Z...MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...
BY 12Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. THUS...COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
WENT NEAR/BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. 02.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
DIG AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY 00Z TUESDAY...CAUSING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE 3 PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...
1. THE FIRST IS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO WHICH GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL SATURATION. THE 02.00Z NAM DEPICTS A DRY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY WHEREAS THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
ALL DEPICT SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARDS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DURING LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ISSUES...THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS AND RAISED
CHANCES.
2. THE SECOND IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT TO NEAR
I-35 IN MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS OF A WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION FORMING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. HERE TOO LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD
COME INTO PLAY...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
EXISTS TO INCREASE CHANCES TOWARDS 50.
3. THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOST SIGNIFICANT COMES OUT OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUE...LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WED. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS COMPLETELY EXITED BY NOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE...NOW TOWARDS 80 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING THAT REQUIRES WATCHING IS IF DYNAMIC COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD PLAY A ROLE AND TRANSITION SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN
OUR NORTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCERNS...WINDS ARE ALSO
OF CONCERN...PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE 925MB WINDS
PICKING UP TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO 35-50 KT FOR 03Z TO 12Z
MONDAY. THE NAM IS BY THE FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
WINDS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 30
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WE
WILL BE HEADING BACK TO RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS DRY AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2013
CLOUDS/CIGS IN THE 2500-4500 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
WILL RAISE ANY MVFR CLOUDS/CIGS TO VFR THRU THE MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON THE PATTERN WILL START TO PROGRESS RATHER
QUICKLY WITH THE SFC-700MB FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...
AND ADVECTING THE CLOUD DECKS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS AROUND 15Z
AT KRST AND 20Z AT KLSE. SOME SCT STRATO-CU LOOK TO PERSIST THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH SKC EXPECTED AFTER 23Z-00Z.
ONE QUESTION IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE/BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING
BUT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS VERY TRANSIENT AND WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA BY 12Z SUN. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. LEFT BR/FG
MENTION OUT OF KLSE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE/LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THRU SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 13-23KTS G25-30KTS MUCH OF SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. THERE
WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS WITH WINDS AT 925MB IN
THE 45-55KT RANGE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO...RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO
SHORTWAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TROUGH ARE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE 850MB/925MB FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW IS DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...NOTED
BY RAP 925MB TEMPS OF 0-2C NOW COMPARED TO 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS
WHICH REPORTED 4-5C. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRATUS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRIEFLY
CLEARING OUT LAST EVENING. TO THE NORTH SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
A SURFACE TROUGH...EVEN COOLER AIR AND MORE STRATUS DOES ACCOMPANY
IT. OFF TO OUR WEST...CLEARING IS TRYING TO MARCH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOVING THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AND DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GIVEN ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE CLEARING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK INTO AND
PROBABLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WISCONSIN LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN STRATUS THE LONGEST...AIDED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TOO
DROPPING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK...BUT THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
HAVING MORE SUN TODAY WILL HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS ADVECTED IN THIS MORNING. STILL...WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY
PROGGED BETWEEN 1-3C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. AT 00Z...MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...
BY 12Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. THUS...COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
WENT NEAR/BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. 02.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
DIG AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY 00Z TUESDAY...CAUSING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE 3 PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...
1. THE FIRST IS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO WHICH GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL SATURATION. THE 02.00Z NAM DEPICTS A DRY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY WHEREAS THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
ALL DEPICT SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARDS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DURING LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ISSUES...THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS AND RAISED
CHANCES.
2. THE SECOND IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT TO NEAR
I-35 IN MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS OF A WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION FORMING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. HERE TOO LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD
COME INTO PLAY...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
EXISTS TO INCREASE CHANCES TOWARDS 50.
3. THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOST SIGNIFICANT COMES OUT OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUE...LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WED. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS COMPLETELY EXITED BY NOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE...NOW TOWARDS 80 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING THAT REQUIRES WATCHING IS IF DYNAMIC COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD PLAY A ROLE AND TRANSITION SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN
OUR NORTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCERNS...WINDS ARE ALSO
OF CONCERN...PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE 925MB WINDS
PICKING UP TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO 35-50 KT FOR 03Z TO 12Z
MONDAY. THE NAM IS BY THE FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
WINDS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 30
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WE
WILL BE HEADING BACK TO RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS DRY AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
ANOTHER MASS OF CLOUDS HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A FEW -SHRA ARE ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT MESO MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS KEEP THOSE MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. COULD
SEE A DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS /4-5SM/ OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY BR WOULD
MIX-OUT BY MID MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE POST THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP CLEAR THE SKIES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SAT...WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/DECOUPLE WITH SUNDOWN...AND STAY LIGHT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP ABOVE
THE NEAR SFC INVERSION AFTER 06Z SUN...BUT IF THAT OCCURS...NOT SURE
IT WOULD IMPACT THE FOG POTENTIAL TOO MUCH. ITS A SCENARIO THAT
BEARS WATCHING.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...BECOMING GUSTY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS - ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
245 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH COOLER AIR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND COLD MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR WITH SOME RESIDUAL MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPTS STILL
UP IN THE 30S AND 40S EVEN AS SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES
FALL FROM THE .65 RANGE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT .45 TO .5 AS OF
2 AM. THIS SLOW DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
STARTS TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES BY 16Z...AND BY 21Z SHOWS A RATHER
BRISK FLOW AND LONG FETCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION AS DEEP AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY
12Z. NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF SHOW A NICE STRONG LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE
ENHANCING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF OUR
AREA...WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. STRONG UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE PVA LOBE MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COUPLET PHASE THROUGH SE AZ BETWEEN 02Z-12Z
WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE KEEPING MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY WELL INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE A COLDER AND MORE EFFICIENT SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING AS LOW AS 7500 TO 8500 FEET AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET. VALLEY STORM TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF .05
TO .35 WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPOTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
TRAILING AND WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO OUR PART OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
3500-4000 FEET AND FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS (PORTIONS OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM COUNTIES) WITH LIMITED BRIEF HARD
FREEZE POTENTIAL IN COLDEST SPOTS.
RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD FOR A RAPID WARMING RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WITH CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN REGION THROUGH MUCH
HIGHER LATITUDES WE SHOULD CAP THAT TREND OFF BY THE WEEKEND. BACK
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 05/09Z. FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH 04/17Z
WITH SFC WINDS BELOW 8 KTS. CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 04/18Z WITH
SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT AGL AND SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PSBL AFT 04/23Z AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. SWLY SFC WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT 04/18Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 05/03Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL KICK UP A 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING. THE BREEZE WILL
DIE OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE REGION.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
MEYER/MEADOWS/CERNIGLIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
356 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...LONG TERM UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
The main focus continues to be on the day 2 and 3 synoptic trough
that will create impacts for Kansas. The models including the GFS,
ECMWF and WRF 40 KM all generally agree on the timing of strong
warm air and including dew points, theta-e advection from surface
to above the 850 mb level early Tuesday morning. The model data
show broad isentropic lift across areas west of Dodge City to the
Colorado line, around 12 UTC with MUCAPES on the order of 500-900
Joules/kg. The area of instability and lift will shift eastward
during the day as the trough axis and deeper cold air move into
eastern Colorado. As a result, the precipitation probabilities
were increased to around 80 percent with the isentropic lift/warm
air advection timeframe. Precipitation type will likely be rain,
rain showers or a rain snow mix as well after the initial frontal
boundary moves through southwest Kansas. The best chances for any
snow will be across west central Kansas, say from Hays to Dighton
and Syracuse, where thermal profiles are most supportive before
frontogenetic response lifting become essentially zero. Widespread
temperatures falling into the mid 20`s are likely Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning west of a Hays to Cimarron to Hugoton
line.
The remainder of the forecast period will bring a day or so of
upper ridging around Thursday before another westerly fast moving
intense upper shortwave crashes into the Central or Northern Plains
Friday. Cool and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will change to
sunny and warmer in the 50`s and maybe 60`s by Friday before the
next wave contributes to slightly cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
For the most part, VFR and breezy conditions should be expected.
Winds will south at 20g28kt prior to a cold front plowing through. a
cold front will move southeastward through the terminal areas
tonight, shifting winds to the north around 10 to 12z. Toward 12z
on Tuesday, some light rain and cigs in the bkn to ovc 040 range
will develop as cold air and moisture advects in.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 90 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 80 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 90 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 90 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 60 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
241 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
THURSDAY PRECEDES ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH. THE GFS
IS NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN IT WAS FOR THE 00Z
RUN YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS DEPICTING ZONAL FLOW. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL STAY WELL TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE CANADIAN SUGGESTS SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THINK THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
JUSTIFY PLACING PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES...ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK RIDGING BECOMES THE
PREDOMINANT WEATHER PATTERN. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY
WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD BE QUITE CONSISTENT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE HIGH
PLAINS ON FRIDAY MAY FORCE A COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT SO HAVE
ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY FOR MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. OTHER THAN THAT...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CIGS AROUND 2500FT
FROM 08Z-15Z OR SO. THIS IS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM 00Z GUIDANCE
SO FOR NOW KEPT CIGS VFR BUT HINTED AT MVFR POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SFC HIGH MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM NORTHWEST
TO EAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO CIRRUS LEVEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CIGS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT
REMAIN VFR AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
237 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...Updated for the short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
A large upper level open wave trough is anticipated to move into the
western CONUS Monday then into the Rockies and High Plains Tuesday.
This system will then eject northeastward into the
remainder of the Plains and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. As this
system approaches, mid levels of the atmosphere will become
saturated allowing for cloudy skies to envelop western Kansas by
Monday night. Isolated thunderstorms will become possible after
midnight, mainly across central Kansas as well as northern Kansas
where the best lift will be observed. An area of low pressure at the
surface will intensify across northeastern New Mexico Monday night
then shift eastward across the Texas and Oklahoma Tuesday. An
associated frontal boundary will be positioned across western Kansas
during the afternoon and this is where rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible. The low and frontal boundary shift
eastward Tuesday night with the chance of wrap around showers
continuing across western Kansas. Temperatures will fall rapidly
behind this front and some places could see snow or a mix of rain
and snow after midnight. Strong northerly winds will also be felt
behind this front making it feel cooler than it actually is. The
system then moves out of the area by sunrise Wednesday with
decreasing cloudiness from west to east. As for temperatures, lows
Tuesday morning are forecasted to range from the upper 30s across
west central Kansas to lower 50s across south central Kansas where
increased dewpoints will be found. In fact, temperatures could start
rising after midnight across south central Kansas due to the
increased moisture. A wide range of temperatures are expected
Tuesday afternoon due to the position of the aforementioned front
with highs ranging from the mid 40s across west central Kansas to
around 60 degrees across portions of the KS/OK border and south
central Kansas. Lows behind this front Wednesday morning are
anticipated to range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas
to upper 30s across south Central Kansas. Highs Wednesday afternoon
should reach to around 50 degrees.
Tranquil weather is then expected Wednesday night through Saturday
with partly cloudy skies and dry conditions. This is due to a weak
upper level ridge positioned south of the CWA. Models are suggesting
an upper level shortwave to move through the Northern Plains Friday
into Saturday but the atmosphere above the Central High plains
should be dry enough that only a slight increase in clouds and a
wind shift could be observed. Highs Thursday through Saturday will
generally range from the mid 50s to mid 60s with lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
For the most part, VFR and breezy conditions should be expected.
Winds will south at 20g28kt prior to a cold front plowing through. a
cold front will move southeastward through the terminal areas
tonight, shifting winds to the north around 10 to 12z. Toward 12z
on Tuesday, some light rain and cigs in the bkn to ovc 040 range
will develop as cold air and moisture advects in.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 90 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 80 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 90 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 90 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 60 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1126 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2013
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show a stream of
embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the main wave
positioned across the western conus. The southwesterly flow has
allowed ample mid level moisture from the western coast to trail
northeast across the central plains, resulting in a mid level deck
of scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. This cloud
cover however has not hindered the strong southerly winds
continuing to gust to around 45 mph near the Concordia and Abilene
areas, lessening between 30 and 40 mph gusts near the Manhattan
and Topeka areas. Will continue with the current wind advisory
through 6 PM when winds weaken below criteria.
The surface trough responsible for the tight pressure gradient
should shift slightly eastward into western Kansas this evening as
a progressive upper shortwave trough lifts northeast through the
northern plains. This should keep the gusty winds in place
overnight, weakening slightly between 15 and 20 mph sustained with
gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with cloud cover in the area, lows in
the upper 40s will be common. In terms of precipitation, very weak
echos develop per the 4 km ARW and 3 km HRRR for late this evening
into the overnight hours. The NAM also hints at weak isentropic
lift on the 310 and 315K surfaces as an area of weak mid level
vorticity is noted across eastern areas of Kansas. The limiting
factors are the lack of strong mid level forcing and dry air at
the low levels with cloud bases near 10 KFT. Kept slight chances
for any developing shower just in case it is able to overcome the
drier air and reach the surface.
Another warm Monday afternoon is in store as the weak cold front
tracks southeast, weakening winds to around 10 mph along and
behind the boundary. Surface high pressure builds in bringing weak
cold advection into the area. Have trended highs toward 60 degrees
for north central areas, warming to the lower and middle 60s for
east central Kansas as southerly winds around 15 mph are
maintained through mid afternoon when the boundary arrives.
Conditions remain dry through the afternoon as a strong shortwave
trough deepens out west, bringing increasing rain chances by
Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning the pattern sets up
for a rainy early/mid week. By 12z Tuesday, the inverted surface
trof has set up along the central and northern portions of the cwa
while tropical moisture is swept northward over the central
plains. Rain showers expected to lift into the southern counties
in the evening and spread into Nebraska by sunrise. Not much
instability to work with throughout this entire system
progression, and will only carry isolated thunder as a result.
Of interest is PW values which come in at 1 to near 1.5 inches by
12z Tuesday which is about 180% of normal for this time of year.
Without a specific boundary or focusing mechanism in the cwa on
Tuesday would anticipate the moisture and ascent to bring a broad
area of moderate rain throughout the day, before the cold front
associated with the upper trof sweeps through in the overnight
hours. May see some pockets of heavier rain as the front moves
through, but have gone with generally 1-1.5 inches across the area
from evening Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
EC has come in not quite as cold at 850mb as the trof passes and
also not as far south. Cold temps already lagged behind the
moisture and will therefore keep mention of any snow mixed in with
the rain out of the forecast. Will have to see how the cold pool
moves across the northern counties on Wednesday morning into
afternoon as it could be cold/unstable enough to generate a few
flakes. Also will expect falling temperatures on Wednesday
afternoon as colder air comes in. Highs in the 50s on a rainy
Tuesday afternoon will become a dry breezy 40s for Wednesday.
Fortunately temperatures warm up slowly through the end of the
week as zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and the lee
trof/southerly surface winds return on Friday. GFS and EC differ
with the strength of the shortwave that slides across the northern
plains later Friday into Saturday, but with northern track have
kept the warmer drier trend at this time with highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Winds will continue to be the main concern through 15Z Monday as
south winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25kt will prevail ahead of
an approaching low pressure and cold front. The front is expected
to move through MHK by 17Z and TOP and FOE around 19Z. Winds will
shift to the west then north through 23Z and decrease to less than
10 kts. Sprinkles or light showers may move near TOP and FOE
through 10Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUB CLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS
SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER
VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND
H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE
LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR
SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO
DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS
FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS
ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TERMINALS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SCT TO POSSIBLY BKN CIGS AROUND 2500FT
FROM 08Z-15Z OR SO. THIS IS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM 00Z GUIDANCE
SO FOR NOW KEPT CIGS VFR BUT HINTED AT MVFR POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE FOR EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SFC HIGH MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SLOWLY VEERING FROM NORTHWEST
TO EAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS. CLOUDINESS LIMITED TO CIRRUS LEVEL.
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD CIGS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BUT
REMAIN VFR AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP FROM
GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM...THE
GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW SNOW.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI. WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING WITH ALL SITES
SEEING INCREASING WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL MENTION LLWS AT KCMX
BUT OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS AT SFC FOR BOTH KIWD AND KSAW SHOULD
PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ONCE MIXING
COMMENCES ON MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE SITES TO QUICKLY BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN TAF SITES BY MON AFTERNOON AS CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
FOR A TIME. SHRA ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT KSAW SO WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
THERE TOWARD MON EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KSAW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LAYER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WORK UP OVER THE
REGION AND WITH IT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THERE IS ALREADY A
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE UP INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY IF A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP OVER-TOP OF THE
KPIR OR KATY TERMINALS BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z. FOR NOW...CONTINUING
WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN AT KPIR AND KATY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
552 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
The main focus continues to be on the day 2 and 3 synoptic trough
that will create impacts for Kansas. The models including the GFS,
ECMWF and WRF 40 KM all generally agree on the timing of strong
warm air and including dew points, theta-e advection from surface
to above the 850 mb level early Tuesday morning. The model data
show broad isentropic lift across areas west of Dodge City to the
Colorado line, around 12 UTC with MUCAPES on the order of 500-900
Joules/kg. The area of instability and lift will shift eastward
during the day as the trough axis and deeper cold air move into
eastern Colorado. As a result, the precipitation probabilities
were increased to around 80 percent with the isentropic lift/warm
air advection timeframe. Precipitation type will likely be rain,
rain showers or a rain snow mix as well after the initial frontal
boundary moves through southwest Kansas. The best chances for any
snow will be across west central Kansas, say from Hays to Dighton
and Syracuse, where thermal profiles are most supportive before
frontogenetic response lifting become essentially zero. Widespread
temperatures falling into the mid 20`s are likely Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning west of a Hays to Cimarron to Hugoton
line.
The remainder of the forecast period will bring a day or so of
upper ridging around Thursday before another westerly fast moving
intense upper shortwave crashes into the Central or Northern Plains
Friday. Cool and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will change to
sunny and warmer in the 50`s and maybe 60`s by Friday before the
next wave contributes to slightly cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH AT 15G20KT BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING, A MID LEVEL DECK AROUND BKN080 WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST, AND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS EAST, AND UPSLOPE AFFECT
WILL DEVELOP. THERE IS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL
ADVECT INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, AND RAIN WILL FORM TOWARD 08
TO 10Z. IFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT RAIN, AND WILL
LIKELY DETERIORATE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 90 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 80 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 90 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 90 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 60 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 70 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
737 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH TOO MANY
UNKNOWNS...WILL KEEP FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE
BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z
WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM AT IWD...THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW
SNOW. WENT WITH A MORE BROAD 1-4IN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE DGZ IS WAY UP
BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB...WITH SNOW RATIOS MAXING OUT NEAR 10:1. WHILE
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER
MI...WARMER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED EAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EITHER WAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK
WET...WITH A CWA AVERAGE INCH OF WATER. THIS IS EVEN A BIT LOWER
THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE W THIRD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL EXIT E
OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS NEARING -9C/ SLIDING
OVER THE W. ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY E.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI TURING WINDS TO A MORE W DIRECTION. WILL NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DRY WX SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR MOST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MOIST UPSLOPE SSE FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AT BOTH KSAW AND
KCMX INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS AT KIWD WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING AS -SHRA MOVE IN FM THE SW. SHRA WILL SPREAD FM THE WRN TAF
SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO KSAW TOWARD EVENING. AS WINDS SHIFT
TO THE WSW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN
25 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVNING AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
531 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH TOO MANY
UNKNOWNS...WILL KEEP FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE
BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z
WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM AT IWD...THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW
SNOW. WENT WITH A MORE BROAD 1-4IN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE DGZ IS WAY UP
BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB...WITH SNOW RATIOS MAXING OUT NEAR 10:1. WHILE
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER
MI...WARMER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED EAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EITHER WAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK
WET...WITH A CWA AVERAGE INCH OF WATER. THIS IS EVEN A BIT LOWER
THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE W THIRD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL EXIT E
OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS NEARING -9C/ SLIDING
OVER THE W. ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY E.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI TURING WINDS TO A MORE W DIRECTION. WILL NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DRY WX SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR MOST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MON MORNING WITH ALL SITES
SEEING INCREASING WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF A LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL MENTION LLWS AT KCMX
BUT OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS AT SFC FOR BOTH KIWD AND KSAW SHOULD
PRECLUDE MENTION OF LLWS THERE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HRS. ONCE MIXING
COMMENCES ON MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE SITES TO QUICKLY BECOME
GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30KT RANGE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN TAF SITES BY MON AFTERNOON AS CIGS LOWER TO MVFR
FOR A TIME. SHRA ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AT KSAW SO WILL JUST MENTION VCSH
THERE TOWARD MON EVENING. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME
MVFR CLOUDS AFFECTING KSAW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED LAYER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-264-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ249>251.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07/VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AMOUNTS OR REDUCE CIGS OR VSBYS BELOW VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND COLD MORNINGS
WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TODAY WAS STILL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MORE SO TONIGHT. AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BUT REMAIN BELOW ANY
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
BLOWING DUST...BUT LOCALIZED REDUCED VISIBILITY IN DUST PRONE AREAS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY IN PINAL COUNTY. THAT SAID...THE
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS THROUGH 04/21Z WITH SFC WINDS BELOW 8 KTS.
CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER 04/21Z WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 6-10K FT AGL AND
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA PSBL AFT 05/00Z AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN. SWLY
SFC WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFT
04/19Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 05/03Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL KICK UP A 15-20 MPH SOUTHWEST BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
PUSHES TOWARD SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MORE SO TONIGHT.
THE BREEZE WILL DIE OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR WITH SOME RESIDUAL MAINLY BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE HANGING ON ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPTS STILL
UP IN THE 30S AND 40S EVEN AS SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES
FALL FROM THE .65 RANGE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON TO ABOUT .45 TO .5 AS OF
2 AM. THIS SLOW DRYING TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
STARTS TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR DEVELOPS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE STREAMLINES YET THIS MORNING...AND BY 21Z SHOWS A
RATHER BRISK FLOW AND LONG FETCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION AS DEEP AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
NAMDNG5 AND ECMWF SHOW A NICE STRONG LOWER LATITUDE IMPULSE
ENHANCING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF OUR
AREA...WITH THIS FEATURE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS EVENING. STRONG UPSLOPE AHEAD OF THE PVA LOBE MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS GOING LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT BEST
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COUPLET PHASE THROUGH SE AZ BETWEEN 02Z-12Z
WITH A SECONDARY IMPULSE KEEPING MORE LIMITED ACTIVITY WELL INTO
TUESDAY.
THIS SHOULD BE A COLDER AND MORE EFFICIENT SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING AS LOW AS 7500 TO 8500 FEET AND 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET. VALLEY STORM TOTAL QPF ON THE ORDER OF .05
TO .35 WITH ISOLATED HIGHER SPOTS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
TRAILING AND WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO OUR PART OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
3500-4000 FEET AND FAVORED COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS (PORTIONS OF
COCHISE...SANTA CRUZ AND GRAHAM COUNTIES) WITH LIMITED BRIEF HARD
FREEZE POTENTIAL IN COLDEST SPOTS.
RIDGE PHASES OVERHEAD FOR A RAPID WARMING RESPONSE LATE IN THE WEEK
BUT WITH CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY IN WESTERN REGION THROUGH MUCH
HIGHER LATITUDES WE SHOULD CAP THAT TREND OFF BY THE WEEKEND. BACK
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY FRIDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
310 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE LOW STRATUS THAT RAN ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN COLORADO I-25 CORRIDOR HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED AS WINDS
HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
THE 18Z NAM12 AND LATEST RAP/HRRR RUNS BEGIN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z TONIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS BEGIN AT 00Z AND LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL
BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG VORT MAX/BEST LIFT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BAND
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SAN JUANS NORTHEAST THROUGH
PUEBLO COUNTY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE BAND
SETTING UP IN NORTHWEST EL PASO AND EASTERN TELLER COUNTIES.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE.
CURRENT SCATTERED POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THESE AREAS FOR NOW IF 00Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE...POPS WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO...MOVING THROUGH COS AND PUB BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
THIS WILL LOWER 700MB TEMPERATURES FROM +1C TO +3C DOWN TO -7C TO -9C
BY TUESDAY EVENING (00Z WED). ANY SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE AREA
AFTER THAT TIME WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
MORNING COMMUTE OVER MONUMENT HILL IF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
NAM12 AND 12Z EC NOW CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. -PJC
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
...LINGERING SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
EVENING WITH RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS...
THE 12 AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 HAVE GRADUALLY COME MORE IN LINE
WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO GENERATING SOME SNOW ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE ALL COMES TO AN END
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE WETS...WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY...SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT AREAS TUESDAY EVENING IN ADDITION TO WHATEVER
FALLS BEFORE THAT. ALSO...THE SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS OF LAS ANIMAS AND
BACA COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE ALL IS DONE...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO JUST A DUSTING OR LESS. LOOKS DRY FOR
ALL OTHER AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OVER. THEN...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS DRY...MILD AND BREEZY TO
WINDY AT TIMES. FRIDAY LOOKS ESPECIALLY WINDY AS IT APPEARS A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
BRINGING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE AREA...AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND/OR HIGH FIRE DANGER AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS
THE DAY APPROACHES. THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ALL
LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES AS WELL...BUT FRIDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. LW
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 237 PM MST MON NOV 4 2013
KALS...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE AIRFIELD
UNTIL 02Z TONIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE IN
TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
AT KALS IS BETWEEN 02-06Z TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY SHOWERS THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
AFTER 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.
KCOS...BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 04Z
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS TO THE NORTH AROUND 13Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AIR FIELD UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE TERMINAL AFTER 06Z WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AIR FIELD BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. -PJC
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058-060-
066-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ073-075-
080-082.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PJC
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...PJC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION AT THE COAST
THROUGH WED MORNING...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WX PATTERN AS THE
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN
INVERTED TROF NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CREATE A TIGHT PGRAD ACRS
THE FL PENINSULA. LATEST RUC13 ANALYSIS INDICATING SOLID 25KT WINDS
THRU 5KFT WELL INTO THE ATLC AND UP THE ERN SEABOARD TO THE NC OUTER
BANKS. WINDS APPROACHING 30KTS IN AREAS N OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND S OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.
WILL RETOOL THE FCST TO UPGRADE AND EMPHASIZE OVERALL WIND/HIGH SURF
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. THE TIGHT PGRAD WILL MAINTAIN
STEADY WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT...KEEPING THE AIRMASS WELL
MIXED. SFC FRICTION WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE INTERIOR
AFT SUNSET...COASTAL ZONES WILL SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE AFT SUNRISE TUE AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES INTO THE W ATLC...FORCING WINDS TO VEER TO THE E
AND SHUNTING ANY WIND/WAVE ENERGY DIRECTLY ONSHORE.
MORNING BEACH REPORTS INDICATED LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DUNE EROSION
ALONG THE BEACHES N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUT SOME MINOR EROSION S OF
THE INLET. DATA BUOY009 WAS APPROACHING THE 10FT MARK AS OF MID AFTN
WITH NEARSHORE BUOYS APPROACHING 8FT. SEAS LIKELY NEAR 12FT IN THE
GULF STREAM. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION THAT OCCURRED AFTER
THE SUSTAINED NRLY WIND EVENTS LAST MONTH...THE FACT THE GULF STREAM
PASSES MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST S OF SEBASTIAN INLET...AND WITH THE
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR OCCURRING THRU MIDWEEK...HAVE
OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN
COUNTY EFFECTIVE THRU THE TUE MRNG HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
MINIMAL NOCTURNAL WIND DIFFERENTIAL FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
FULL WIND ADVISORY AFT SUNRISE TUE. NOCTURNAL MINIMUMS OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AFT
SUNSET...BUT WILL BE BACK IN EFFECT AFT SUNRISE TUE.
DENSE MARINE STRATOCU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACRS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THRU TUE...BUT THE SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE
H90-H70 LYR WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT. WILL
SEE ISOLD -SHRAS DVLP IN LCL CONVERGENCE BANDS...BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AND ANY IMPACT MINIMAL. QPF VALUES AOB 0.10"
COMBINATION OF OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND WELL MIXED AIR WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WELL ABV AVG...5-10F INTERIOR (M/U60S)...AND 10-15F
ALONG THE COAST (L/M70S). THESE SAME WX FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
LIMIT SFC HEATING TUE AFTN...MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S/L80S WILL BE NO
MORE THAN 10F OFF THEIR MORNING MINS ALONG THE COAST...10-15F
INTERIOR.
WED...SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE WINDY ONSHORE
DIMINISHING TO THE BREEZY CATEGORY. LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOWING THAT THE STRONG MID LEVEL CAP STILL LIMITING ANY
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THUS LOW TOPPED SHOWERS COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC
FOR ANOTHER DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THU-SUN... GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT
RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT
SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A
RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...4-6 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL CWA
AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE COAST DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI-SUN.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 05/00Z...ALL SITES FRQT E/NE SFC WND G23-29KTS...PREVAILING
CIGS BTWN FL060-070...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD -SHRAS. BTWN
05/00Z-05/15Z...CSTL SITES OCNL E/NE SFC WND G22-25KTS...ALL SITES
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL050-060 WITH BRIEF MVFR IN ISOLD -SHRAS. AFT
05/15Z...E/NE SFC WND G23-28KTS...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ISOLD
SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS AS INTERACTION BTWN
THE EAST COAST HIGH PRES RIDGE AND THE INVERTED TROF JUST E OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL A GENERATE STRONG E/NE BREEZE WITH NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS. AFTN WINDS SUSTAINED 22-27KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT
BUOY008/009...SETTLEMENT POINT AND LAKE WORTH...AND THE NEW SMYRNA
BEACH ARPT. SEAS 8-10FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 12FT OFFSHORE WITH
DOMINANT PDS BTWN 7-9SEC.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING 0KT WINDS IMPINGING ON THE E FL COAST N
OF THE CAPE AND S OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AFT COORD WITH WFO MFL...HAVE
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE SCA TO A GALE WARNING BTWN 05/03Z-05/21Z AS
FQNT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED.
WED...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARRIBEAN RELAXES. SEAS SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AS 10 FOOT SEAS OFFSHORE
DROP DOWN TO 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS WED NIGHT.
THU-SAT...WINDS VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO VARIABLE AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD WED NIGHT/EARLY THU TO THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH OVERNIGHT THU. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS START OVERNIGHT THU
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...IF NOT INTO SUN...AS THE WINDS BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FRI AND HIGHER SAT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. SEAS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 8 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY FRI NIGHT AND 5
FEET NEARSHORE TO 9 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SAT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUE...THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL WILL ADVECT SUFFICIENT
OCEAN MOISTURE ONSHORE TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH A FEW FAR INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE VALUES
DROP BRIEFLY TO 40 PERCENT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED 20FT WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES WHICH WILL
POSE A CONCERN FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A DECREASE IN WINDS WED AND
ESPECIALLY THU WILL REDUCE FIRE CONCERNS SLIGHTLY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 71 79 68 84 / 20 20 20 10
MCO 69 81 67 86 / 20 20 10 10
MLB 72 80 74 84 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 72 80 73 84 / 20 20 20 10
LEE 66 81 64 85 / 20 20 10 10
SFB 69 81 67 85 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 68 81 66 85 / 20 20 10 10
FPR 72 80 73 85 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST. LUCIE.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
ST. LUCIE.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INDIAN RIVER-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN BREVARD-ST.
LUCIE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR INLAND
VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN LAKE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60
NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1159 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
344 AM CST
OVERALL TRENDS OF MODELS OVER LAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAS BEEN FOR
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS SLOWING DOWN AND THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
MODELS...WHICH WERE THE MORE PREVALENT...MAINTAINING THEIR
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. ETA 04.00Z RUN STILL FASTEST IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH A COUPLE OF GFS-
ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS AGREE WITH THOUGH CERTAINLY NOT THE
MAJORITY OR THE MEAN. WITH TIME EVEN THE QUICKER ETA SLOWS BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO AGREE WITH THE
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.
00Z GFS-ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SUITE OF MODELS AND
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS ALSO A GOOD FIT WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHILE
RETAINING FINER DETAILS SEEN IN SOME OTHER MODELS THAT THE MEAN
SMOOTHS OUT. THUS...FOR OVERALL TRENDS AM USING 00Z OPERATIONAL
GFS.
ALSO USING VARIOUS MODEL 850-700HPA QC FRONTOGENESIS PROGS WHICH
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT RIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SUSPECTED TOO QUICK
ETA...AND MODEL QPF FIELDS DISREGARDING THOSE FROM THE 00Z ETA
KEEPS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY
HUNDREDTH OR TWO AMOUNTS UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA AND THEN INCREASING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST 2/3RDS TO 3/4THS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER AND MID MO VALLEY MID.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS OF THE PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS TO BE IMPEDED THROUGH
MID-WEEK BY A STRONG UPPER ANTICYCLONE PROGGED TO PARK ITSELF
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FL...OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST...AND OVER THE BAHAMAS BEFORE
SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY
EVENING.
GFS-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF VARIOUS QPF 6HR ACCUMULATION
AMOUNTS FIT THE NOTION OF ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SPREADING GRADUALLY EASTWARD WITH TIME DURING LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND IS SUPPORTED BY 03Z SREF OUTPUT
OF PROBABILITY OF QPF AMOUNTS. MODEL RUN ACCUM PRECIP PROGS
SHOWING GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS FALLING MAINLY FROM LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY THOUGH NCEP WPC 1-3
DAY QPF TOTALS NOT AS GENEROUS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING A
HEAVIER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND FROM EASTERN NE ACROSS IA TO
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WI WHERE THE MAIN
BAROCLINIC BAND SETS UP FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER HEAVIER BAND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FORM
SOUTHERN MO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL TO WEST CENTRAL IN WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC BAND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER FROM LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS MAY PLAY OUT BASED
ON THE FACT THE SREF AND GFS-ENSEMBLE QPF FORECASTS AND
PROBABILITY OF QPF AMOUNTS DONT SHOW THE HEAVIER RAIN BAND
JUMPING OVER THE LOCAL AREA...RATHER SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
UNTIL THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE OVER AND EAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVELS ARE SHOWN
TO BY DRYING BY THEN BUT LOWER LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS COOLING
TEMPERATURES MAINTAIN MINIMAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS.
LOWER AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS HAS ALREADY BE UNDERWAY
SINCE EARLIER TONIGHT. FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LOWER
LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROGS STILL SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE DATE.
WITH AT LEAST MODEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND ADDITIONAL WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
HELD UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE PERIOD OF MILDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM
THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD TOWN JUST A BIT FROM REACHING
THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES TUESDAY DUE THE EXPECTED PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA. WHILE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD FOR EARLY NOVEMBER THANKS TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S GULF
SOURCE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE RESULTING IN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA DURING LATE MORNING-MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AN EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN AN EARLIER ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY
LIMITING NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED
IN THE NDFD DATA BASE SO WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS ON WEDNESDAY TO
SHOW THIS ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION SPREADING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING WEDNESDAY.
AFTER THIS UPPER TOUGH MOVES OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...NEW
ENGLAND AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
MORNING THE FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA BECOMING ZONAL. THIS WILL
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT PENETRATION OF COLD AIR INTO THE LOCAL
AREA AND BY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SPREADING FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE IT CROSSES THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND CONTINUES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SPRAWLED FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ACROSS
EASTERN TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE TN AND OH VALLEYS ALONG
WITH THE ZONAL MID AND UPPER FLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL BE BLOCKED SO THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY
HAVE WHAT EVER PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MANAGES TO BRING EAST OUT
AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE CASCADES AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO WORK
WITH. MODELS DEPICT MODERATELY STRONG DYNAMICS AND LIFT BUT A
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE PRODUCTION OF
PRECIPITATION...AND KEEP ANY OF IT NORTH OF NORTHERN IL FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER FRIDAY AND
INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
TRAVELING EAST ALONG/NEAR THE 49TH PARALLEL THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW WILL DRAW MILDER AIR BACK ACROSS THE REGION AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMALS.
TRS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* STRONG S WINDS ARND 15KT GUSTING TO 20-30KT THROUGH LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.
* SSW WINDS 10G15KT THROUGH LATE EVENING.
* CHANCE OF -RA AT ORD TOMORROW AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
LOW PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA. THE THROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND EXPECTING VFR BKN TO OVC
SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL REMAIN WEST AND
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BTWN 25 AND 30KT THIS AFTN AND
THEN DIMINISH TO 10G15 KT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD ALSO TURN SSW WITH GUSTS
COMPLETELY DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE SW U.S. LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN MOVES NE TOWARD THE REGION. CIGS WILL LOWER TO
LOW VFR TONIGHT AND THEN LOW VFR TO MVFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR
IS MOST LIKELY AT RFD IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE S OR
SSE...ESPECIALLY AT ORD...WTH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT RFD LATE
TOMORROW...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP AT ORD
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP AT ORD
TOMORROW.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR IN
RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATE SOUTH WINDS SHIFTING WEST. IFR LIKELY IN
RAIN.
THURSDAY...MODERATE NW WINDS. BECOMING VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
SUNDAY...VFR.
ALLSOPP
&&
.MARINE...
209 AM CST
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST
US WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
MANITOBA TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
WILL GENERATE STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY. WILL CONTINUE
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTH 2/3 OF THE LAKE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING INTO THE SOUTH 1/3 OF THE LAKE
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS A FEW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND INTO HUDSON BAY TUESDAY...ALLOWING WINDS OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE OF 29.8 INCHES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO LAKE MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON WHETHER THIS
NEXT LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTH OR NORTH PART OF THE LAKE...AS
WELL AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SOUTH WINDS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND STRONG
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. A QUIETER PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
ALLSOPP
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ878 UNTIL 3 PM MONDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-
LMZ876 UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 AM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1146 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 950 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
Morning surface analysis shows cold front extending from western
Minnesota to the Texas panhandle. Stream of mainly mid/high-level
moisture well ahead of the front has produced a swath of
cloudiness from the western Gulf Coast into the Great Lakes.
Generally high clouds blanket central Illinois: however, clouds
have lowered to between 5000 and 9000ft further west across Iowa
into Missouri, where a few light showers have been occurring from
time to time. HRRR suggests these showers will continue to push
eastward and dissipate across west-central Illinois this
afternoon. 12z KILX upper air sounding was quite dry below 500mb,
so do not believe measurable precip will occur anywhere across the
area today. However based on radar trends and upstream obs, have
added scattered sprinkles across the Illinois River Valley. Main
story today will be the breezy and warm conditions. Southerly
winds gusting to between 25 and 30 mph will boost afternoon high
temperatures into the lower 60s. Zone update has already been
issued.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1146 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
VFR conditions are expected through the entire 18z TAF period.
Mid/high clouds will be prevalent across central Illinois over the
next 24 hours, with lower clouds generally remaining just west of
the area until Tuesday evening. A lead short-wave ahead of a
slowly approaching cold front may potentially bring MVFR ceilings
and a few light showers Tuesday morning: however, confidence for
those conditions is not high enough to include in the forecast at
this time. Have lowered ceilings to around 3500ft and introduced
VCSH as this wave passes between 13z and 18z. Winds will be
strong/gusty from the south this afternoon, with gusts
occasionally reaching 25kt. Gusts will subside tonight, but
sustained southerly winds of 10 to 15kt are expected to continue
overnight into Tuesday morning.
Barnes
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 330 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night
00Z models continue slower trend of bringing in qpf into central
and southeast IL Tue, especially the NAM model which keeps our CWA
dry until late Tuesday evening & Tue overnight. Did not go that
dry yet but did trend lower with pops on Tuesday. Best chances of
rain appears to be from overnight Tue night through Wed evening
with around 1 inch of rain expected, and perhaps a bit higher over
southeast IL.
Early morning surface map shows strong 1038 mb high pressure over
western Quebec and Lake Ontario while 1000 mb low pressure was
wst of Lake Winnipeg with its cold front extending southward
through eastern Dakotas, eastern Nebraska and central Kansas.
Shield of high/cirrus clouds 20-25k ft blankets IL and se winds
5-15 mph keeping milder/nearly steady temps in the low to mid 40s.
Aloft an upper level ridge was east of the MS river from MI and
the Ohio River valley into AL/GA, while 532 dm 500 mb low was over
southern Saskatchewan with large upper level trof over the
Rockies. IL was getting into a sw upper level flow early today.
Models show high clouds thinning somewhat during the day so some
sunshine to filter through the cirrus clouds with partly to mostly
cloudy skies expected today. Breezy south winds gusting 20-30 mph
by afternoon to give milder highs of 59-63F. Dry conditions to
prevail tonight with clouds thickening and lowering especially
west of I-57. Lows of 44-48 degrees tonight.
A warm front sets up nw of IL Tuesday with 20-30% chance of light
rain showers west of I-57 Tuesday morning and increasing to 30-50%
Tuesday afternoon, with just slight chance of light rain showers
in eastern IL Tue afternoon while staying dry over the Wabash
River valley in southeast IL. Highs mostly in the lower 60s again
on Tuesday.
A vigorous short wave to dig into the Central Plains Tues night
and eject ne into the western Great Lakes Wed. Deepening surface
low pressure ejecting ne from central plains to drag a cold front
east through IL Wednesday and exiting southeast IL during Wed
evening. This to bring our best chance of rain showers especially
over IL River valley Tuesday night and shifting eastward into
eastern IL on Wednesday. Rain chances then diminish from west to
east during Wed night. Kept just slight chance of thunderstorms
east of I-57 Wed but SPC currently does not carry thunderstorm
chances through Day 3 outlooks over IL. Highs Wed range from mid
50s nw of IL River to lower 60s in southeast IL.
LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday night
Dry weather expected to prevail across IL Thursday through Sunday
along with cooler temperatures with frosty lows near or just below
freezing Thursday night. A fairly strong upper level short wave
tracks into the western great lakes region late this week but
still appears to keep its light rain shower chances north of
central IL Friday night and Saturday. Temps that modify a bit late
this week to cool back down on Sunday behind this weather system.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
323 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THIS
WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH
EVENTUAL DRIZZLE FOR MOST AREAS BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT. COULD
ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...AS
THE INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH A CHILLY RADIATED-
OUT AIRMASS. ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AS STRONG 850-600MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...THINKING WIDESPREAD ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY...WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY EXCEEDING THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ANTICIPATING
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
CENTRAL KS LATE TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE NAM`S DEPICTION OF A
LINGERING MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH HOLDS TRUE. EITHER WAY...NOT ANTICIPATING ACCUMULATIONS.
SUNNY YET COOLER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MIXING
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR 50 DEGREES.
ADK
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (SUNDAY)...STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY...AS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE EXITING EASTERN KS AS OF 1730Z. THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A KMHK-KICT-KAWK AND WAS STILL ADVANCING
EAST. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. THE RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE CAPTURED
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT MUCH BETTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
FROM THE 12Z CYCLE THIS MORNING. USED THIS AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST
MEANS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z WITH CIGS MOSTLY AROUND 7
HUNDRED FEET. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 4 MILES WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING
THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25
KNOTS.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 53 58 37 50 / 70 80 80 10
HUTCHINSON 48 58 35 50 / 70 80 70 10
NEWTON 50 57 36 49 / 70 80 80 10
ELDORADO 53 57 38 49 / 70 80 90 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 56 59 40 51 / 70 90 90 20
RUSSELL 42 58 31 49 / 60 90 60 0
GREAT BEND 43 59 32 50 / 70 90 60 0
SALINA 46 59 34 50 / 70 90 70 0
MCPHERSON 47 58 35 49 / 70 80 70 10
COFFEYVILLE 55 60 45 52 / 70 90 100 30
CHANUTE 54 59 42 51 / 70 90 100 30
IOLA 54 59 41 51 / 70 90 100 30
PARSONS-KPPF 55 60 44 52 / 70 90 100 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1157 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2013
...Updated Synopsis and Aviation sections...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
A longwave trough encompassed much of western/central North America
with large scale ridging across eastern North America and across the
far northeast Pacific (west and south of British Columbia). There
was a significant polar jet streak rounding the western ridge and
diving southeast across the west coast of Washington-Oregon-Northern
California. There were a couple of shortwave perturbations that
were lifting northeast through the northern Great Plains into the
eastern Canadian Prairies. Tied to these features, there was a
fairly significant 700mb cold front moving south through Nebraska
into northwestern Kansas. This baroclinic zone was quasi-stationary
as it extended southwest through southern Colorado west to southern
Nevada. Temperatures were cold over a large area at 700mb with -12
to -15C common across the northern High Plains into the northern
Rockies. There were two cold fronts that could be identified at
850mb. The first one pushed through southwestern Kansas early this
morning where 850mb temperatures were falling into the lower single
digits. The second northern front was pushing through South Dakota
early this morning with 850mb temperatures behind this front as cold
as -9C at Glasgow, MT. Low level moisture was on the increase with
850mb dewpoint temperatures around +10C across the lower Rio Grande
Valley (Del Rio, TX with a south wind).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Today will see a cold front sweep through rather quickly and early
from the northwest to the southeast. For much of the day, mostly
sunny skies will prevail and winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph
and gusty. This will allow temperatures to start to warm up early,
but level off and stabilize in the mid 50s in the northwest, such as
from Johnson City to Wakeeney. Temperatures in the Pratt, Barber,
and Comanche county areas will top out in the mid 60s, prior to the
front passing through. Then as the lower level flow shifts more
easterly tonight, and a mid level trough advances east from
Colorado, rain should start toward 06z, but I did lower Pops a
little until after 09z. The HRRR and RUC13 models hold off any rain
until after 09z, while the NAM and GFS begin rain before 09z. It
appears the south and southwestern zones of Grant, Stevens,
Morton and Stanton counties may be dry-slotted early in the precip
event, with the mid and upper wave coming in. The highest
precipitation chances will be in the eastern half of our forecast
area, and mainly after 09z. Precipitation chances for rain will
increase to likely by 12z, and the southeast zones southeast of a
line from Stafford to Edwards to Clark counties will have showers
with isolated thunderstorms mentioned. The front will have
advected north as a warm front by late Monday night, and there
could be enough lift for some scattered convection.
As far as temperatures tonight, winds and precip may hold
temperatures up, ranging from the upper 30s in the Scott City and
Syracuse areas, to the lower 50s in the Ashland to Saint John areas.
Rainfall amounts are always challenging, with light precip
starting prior to 06z, and more substantial rain between 06Z and
12Z.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
The main focus continues to be on the day 2 and 3 synoptic trough
that will create impacts for Kansas. The models including the GFS,
ECMWF and WRF 40 KM all generally agree on the timing of strong
warm air and including dew points, theta-e advection from surface
to above the 850 mb level early Tuesday morning. The model data
show broad isentropic lift across areas west of Dodge City to the
Colorado line, around 12 UTC with MUCAPES on the order of 500-900
Joules/kg. The area of instability and lift will shift eastward
during the day as the trough axis and deeper cold air move into
eastern Colorado. As a result, the precipitation probabilities
were increased to around 80 percent with the isentropic lift/warm
air advection timeframe. Precipitation type will likely be rain,
rain showers or a rain snow mix as well after the initial frontal
boundary moves through southwest Kansas. The best chances for any
snow will be across west central Kansas, say from Hays to Dighton
and Syracuse, where thermal profiles are most supportive before
frontogenetic response lifting become essentially zero. Widespread
temperatures falling into the mid 20`s are likely Tuesday night
and early Wednesday morning west of a Hays to Cimarron to Hugoton
line.
The remainder of the forecast period will bring a day or so of
upper ridging around Thursday before another westerly fast moving
intense upper shortwave crashes into the Central or Northern Plains
Friday. Cool and cloudy conditions on Wednesday will change to
sunny and warmer in the 50`s and maybe 60`s by Friday before the
next wave contributes to slightly cooler conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
Aviation weather conditions will deteriorate overnight tonight as
low level moisture pushes north-northwest into the southwest Kansas
region. This will result in development of MVFR stratus after 07Z or
so late tonight...with IFR stratus expected a few hours after that.
Eventually, close to daybreak Tuesday, the ceiling will likely fall
to LIFR category with rain overspreading the region. Light rain is
expected to be off and on during much of the morning Tuesday as an
approaching upper level disturbance increased the atmospheric lift
across the western Kansas region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 46 62 30 / 0 60 90 70
GCK 58 43 57 25 / 0 30 80 60
EHA 57 40 61 28 / 10 20 90 70
LBL 60 46 62 30 / 10 40 90 80
HYS 60 42 56 28 / 0 70 90 50
P28 66 52 63 36 / 10 60 80 90
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1137 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NUMBER OF FEATURES WITHIN THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. ONE WEAK IMPULSE IS LIFTING
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS TRACKING EAST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. LAST BUT
NOT LEAST...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGHING/COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND DOWN INTO WEST-CENTRAL KS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
TODAY THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. ONE MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW BETTER MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES IN THE 300-305K LAYER. WHILE THERE WILL BE A SHOT AT A
FEW STORMS...INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE. ALSO
WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY DRIZZLE TUE AS THE BULK
OF OF THE SATURATION REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS.
BY TUE MORNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE
ROCKIES WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY SLOT MAY MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR TUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVELS STILL
EXTREMELY SATURATED...STILL THINK WE`LL SEE SOME SHOWERS OR EVEN
SOME DRIZZLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE AND
WILL QUICKLY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING
ONLY FAR SE KS WILL STILL BE SEEING SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS. NOT
OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL KS DUE TO LACK OF
CLOUD ICE ONCE THE LOW LEVEL FINALLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THESE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL BE A RETURN TO
SEASONAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON TRACKING A FAST MOVING IMPULSE OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NW AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRI. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MILD TEMPS IN PLACE THROUGH
THESE EXTENDED PERIODS ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LAWSON
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE EXITING EASTERN KS AS OF 1730Z. THE COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A KMHK-KICT-KAWK AND WAS STILL ADVANCING
EAST. THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. THE RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE CAPTURED
THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT MUCH BETTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS
FROM THE 12Z CYCLE THIS MORNING. USED THIS AS THE PRIMARY FORECAST MEANS.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 06Z WITH CIGS MOSTLY AROUND 7 HUNDRED
FEET. VSBYS WILL DROP TO 4 MILES WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE DURING THIS
TIME. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE SAME THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.
COOK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 62 53 60 37 / 10 60 90 70
HUTCHINSON 62 50 59 35 / 10 60 80 70
NEWTON 61 51 59 35 / 10 60 90 70
ELDORADO 62 52 60 38 / 10 60 90 80
WINFIELD-KWLD 64 53 60 38 / 10 60 90 70
RUSSELL 61 44 54 29 / 10 70 90 30
GREAT BEND 60 45 56 31 / 10 70 80 50
SALINA 63 47 58 34 / 10 70 90 60
MCPHERSON 61 49 58 34 / 10 60 80 70
COFFEYVILLE 66 51 60 48 / 10 50 90 90
CHANUTE 64 53 59 45 / 10 50 90 90
IOLA 65 53 59 44 / 10 50 90 80
PARSONS-KPPF 65 52 59 47 / 10 50 90 90
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
344 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...QUIET DAY OVERALL BUT THERE WAS AN INTERESTING LITTLE
FEATURE OVER THE CWA TODAY. IF YOU NOTICED IT ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH SHORES OR HAPPENED TO SEE IT ON SATELLITE THERE WAS THE
IMMEDIATE/SHARP CLEARING LINE IN THE CLOUDS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE
AROUND 4500-5K FT HIGH AND THE CLEARING LINE MOVED FROM WEST TO
EAST. OVERALL IT WAS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT WAS CAUSING THIS BUT
LOOKING AT THE RUC13 THE 295K LEVEL THERE WAS A NOTICEABLE RISE IN
THETA SFC EAST OF 55. MOISTURE WAS TRAPPED UNDER IT AND THUS LOW
CLOUDS STAYED IN THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. WEST OF 55 THE
THETA SFC WERE FALLING AND FALLING QUICKLY SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE AND
MIXING AND THUS CLEARING SKIES.
OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET BUT CANT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHRA OR SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
WED AND ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
AIRMASS IS STILL RECOVERING WITH 12Z PWS STILL NEAR 0.50" AND
MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE IN PLACE UNTIL WED
AFTN. AN ALREADY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL AMPLIFY A TAD
MORE OVERNIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE THE ERN GULF
AND FL/EXTREME SERN CONUS WHILE THE H5 JET CORE STILL UP STREAM OF
THE L/W TROUGH APPROACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL CAUSE THE
TROUGH TO DIG ABOUT ANOTHER 12 HRS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS TONIGHT AND THEN AS THE TROUGH STOPS DIGGING TOMORROW
THE SFC LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO DEEPEN AND LIFT ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ARKLATEX TUE NIGHT AND INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WED BUT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH OUR
REGION UNTIL WED NIGHT NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE TROUGH AND SFC LOW
BOTH QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE NE.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY IN PLACE LATE WED ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING AND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS RAIN
CHANCE WILL INCREASE BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY
HOLD OFF TILL THE EVNG AND OVERNIGHT HRS. AS FOR STRONG/SVR CHANCES
THERE WILL BE NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. IN ADDITION THE BEST
FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND EVEN MID LVL WINDS WILL
NOT BE THAT IMPRESSIVE (MAYBE 40-45KTS AT BEST). RAIN WILL COME TO
AN END AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED/THU
MORNING. ONCE THIS OCCURS DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO
THE REGION.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THU THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET AND COOL
ONCE AGAIN AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
DRY OUT WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY FRI. ZONAL FLOW WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SFC. BOTH LL TEMPS AND
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND RECOVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN DRY. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EAST COAST AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS IS LEADING TO
A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AND NOW THE SOUNDS AS WELL. THE ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES TEMPORARILY. FOR THE
TIDAL LAKES...EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED OR POSSIBLY UPGRADED TO ADVISORIES
FOR TUESDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT
EASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. 95/CAB
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A
THINK LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 4KFT HAS BEEN TRACKING EAST ALL DAY AN
NOW IS BEGINNING TO THIN. EXPECT THIS DECK TO NOT BE MUCH OF AN
IMPACT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL NOT FALL OFF QUITE
SO MUCH OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY ON
TUESDAY. /MEFFER/
&&
.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 75 56 78 / 10 10 10 40
BTR 59 77 61 82 / 10 10 10 40
ASD 56 75 60 79 / 20 10 10 30
MSY 62 76 65 80 / 20 20 10 30
GPT 57 74 62 77 / 10 10 10 20
PQL 53 75 58 78 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO
THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM...AND
MISSISSIPPI SOUND.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG/MARINE: CAB
AVIATION: MEFFER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
STRONG ~1038 SFC HIGH (+2 STD DEV) WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SWD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...USHERING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
HAVE ONLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 40S NW TO MID 50S SE (-1 TO -1.5
STD DEV). ALOFT...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN CONUS
AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. PLUME
OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR STREAMING FROM NEAR
THE SRN TIP OF THE BAJA (REMNANTS OF SONIA) INTO THE OH VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...NE FLOW (BREEZY NEAR THE
COAST...DIMINISHING TONIGHT) WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
/STRATO-CU OFF THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO THE SE...SPREADING WWD THRU
TONIGHT. NO ACTIVITY VISIBLE ON RADAR...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP OVER THE SE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER
TO SPREAD WWD THAN ANTICIPATED...SO OPTED TO LOWERS TEMPS A DEG OR
TWO INLAND TONIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW-MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE WRN CONUS. SPEED MAX WILL EMERGE ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY...EJECTING THE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EWD INTO
THE PLAINS LATE TUES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE ERN CONUS TUES AS STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE (+1 STD DEV
H5 HEIGHTS) ANCHORS OFF THE SE COAST. AT THE SFC...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT OFF THE NE COAST TUES-WEDS
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WILL REMAIN WEDGED INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THRU WED.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR SE WED AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE/MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH WILL COMBINE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE COASTAL TROUGH TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. RAIN MAY
END UP BEING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR NOW. MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE
SRN STREAM INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND
PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUES-WEDS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. NE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WELL.
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE LATE WEDS AS THE SFC/H85 HIGH
MOVES OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WITH HANDLING
THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. TROUGH WILL
EJECT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NE THURS...PUSHING THE BEST
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIP NOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA (MAINLY E OF INTERSTATE 95) IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THURS AS THE PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT LIKELY DISSIPATES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DISTURBANCES IN THE SW FLOW AND THETA-E
ADVECTION (MODEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY) MAKE THIS SCENE RIO SEEM
REASONABLE. HAVE OPTED TO TRIM BACK POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT THURS
AND RAISE POPS ALONG THE COAST. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
(STILL REMAINING CHANCE POPS). FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
THURS.
WHILE CAA WILL WANE TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (MID 50S N TO MID 60S S) DUE TO LITTLE
CHANCE IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WARMER WED AND THURS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS NEURALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. MILD WED
NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TO MORE ZONAL FROM THE MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WHICH HAS BEEN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS IS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
BY ALL THE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. WILL LOOK
FOR NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE ANOTHER TROF
GO BY TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS FRONT WILL BE A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH SOME CLEAR
NIGHTS AND CALM WINDS AS THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA WILL HAVE
NIGHTTIME LOWS AGAIN IN THE 30S AT TIMES.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS INLAND AREAS AROUND RIC AND
AREA OF MVFR (BKN020-BKN025) HAS PUSHED IN ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STRONG NLY FLOW. AS THE MARINE LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION EXPECT THE MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FROM PHF TO ORF AND ECG INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE JUST
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK NEAR THE COAST BUT THESE IFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO JUST EITHER SIDE OF DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE (REACHING RIC BEFORE 12Z
TUE) DUE TO LOW LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PUSH INTO SBY AND PERSIST TROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. NEXT
CHC FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS WILL BE THU/THU NGT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT CDFNTL PASSAGE.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT INTO THE EVENING OVER THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AS THE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUSTS TO 20 KTS. LOOKING AT THE HIGH
RES MODELS SUCH AS THE THE HRRR LOCAL WRF AND HIRES ARW ALL SHOWS
WINDS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL THEREFORE BRING WINDS
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND WITH LARGE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE LONG OCEAN
FETCH GENERATING WAVES OF 5 TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THIS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. PROBABLY SEAS WILL DROP UNDER 5 FEET
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER THEN
THE NAM BUT LEANING TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE NAM
FOR NOW. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
OVER THE WATER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND
SAS DIMINISHING.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...ALB/JAO
MARINE...JAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
416 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH
THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE
MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS
TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY
LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER
UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE
CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN
IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT
RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK
OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE
SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY
AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A COUPLED JET (RIGHT REAR
OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES). A LITTLE LOWER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LIKELY LEADING
TO A SHARP CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OVER THE EAST AND SNOW OVER THE
WEST. TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
FURTHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LIMITED COLD AIR TO PULL SOUTH
AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL COMBINE
WITH THE WARMER WATER TEMPS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE REGIONS. THUS...THINKING THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE
HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IS
COMPLICATED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOOKING AT
MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO HAVE A MIX
OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS A
SITUATION OF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH NEAR SURFACE WARM OR
ISOTHERMAL LAYER...HAVE FOLLOWED 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0
VALUES TO DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE AWAY
FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR WARMING WILL LIKELY RUN FROM SKANDIA TO IRON
MOUNTAIN.
AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...EXPECT 0.40-1.0 INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH A
FGEN BAND FROM ROUGHLY WATERSMEET TO BARAGA COUNTY. IN THAT
SAME REALM...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS ARE SHIFTING THE QPF
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED FORCING
LOCATIONS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIFT TO BE JUST BELOW THE DGZ WHICH
SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED QPF
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN SNOW AREAS WOULD EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES AND THAT SITS RIGHT IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE
THERE IS STILL SOME TIME (DUE TO THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING DURING
THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS
ARE IN THE -7 TO -9C RANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO DELTA-T VALUES
ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE
7-8KFT RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FORECASTS FOR
THE SNOW BELTS.
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH
EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...SHOWED
DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THEM LINGERING LONGEST
IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATION OVER THE EAST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY.
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED OFF SNOW ALOFT FALLING
THROUGH A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...LEANED ON 1000-850MB
THICKNESS VALUES FOR P-TYPE WHICH INDICATES A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. A
LOT OF VARIABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH HOW COLD THE AIR
WILL BE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH MORE THAN
LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEAD
TO DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A TROUGH INTO MN HAS SUPPORTED MVFR CIGS AT CMX/SAW.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD HAS KEPT CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE.
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT VSBY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH
GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. VEERING WINDS TO WSW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE UPPER MI WILL HELP PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT
WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END
TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-249>251-
264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
341 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM...ONE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...A SECOND OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...A THIRD OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES...A FOURTH
DIGGING INTO THE CA COASTLINE AND A FIFTH DIVING THROUGH THE PAC NW.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ASSOC STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING RADAR RETURNS
FROM ERN IA NORTH INTO WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/WRN UPPER MI. MUCH OF THE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY HOWEVER IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY PCPN
AT SFC THUS FAR AS NOTED ON OBS UPSTREAM. THE SHORTWAVES OVER SCNTRL
CANADA AND THE ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THEY LIFT NE TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE WRN CONUS
SHORTWAVES WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL AND PUSH A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROF AND ASSOC SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDWEEK.
TODAY...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND COLUMN MOISTENING THROUGH
THE MORNING HRS WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW PCPN TO BE REALIZED AT THE
SFC. THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ALONG A CORRIDOR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE WRN THIRD OF UPPER
MI. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHRA OVER THESE
COUNTIES AND THEN TAPER POPS BACK TO LOW CHC OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES
TO SLIGHT CHC OVER FAR EAST FARTHEST AWAY FROM BEST FORCING.
TIGHTENING SRLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50F UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TONIGHT...AS THE WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LIFTS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT...IT WILL PROPEL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE WEST HALF OF UPPER MI THIS EVENING AND THEN
THROUGH THE REST OF UPPER MI LATE TONIGHT. WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STILL OVER
THE ROCKIES IN THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROF...EXPECT A DRYING
TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE AS FORCING
ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA
BY 06Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLEST OVER
THE WRN INTERIOR (UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F) WHERE LONGEST PD OF
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
WILL START OFF TUESDAY MORNING UNDER QUICK SW FLOW ALOFT...WITH A
RIDGE STUCK ACROSS THE FAR SE STATES AND THE MAIN 500MB LOW ACROSS
MANITOBA AND FAR N ONTARIO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM S CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MT AND AZ TO MEXICO. THE NEARLY
STACKED 500MB TO SFC LOW OVER N ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL HAVE A
COLD FRONT PUSHED ACROSS E UPPER MI...TETHERED TO THE NEXT SFC LOW
SET UP ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
EXPECT DRY WX INITIALLY...THANKS TO MUCH OF THE ENERGY STUCK TO OUR
N...CLOSER TO THE LARGE WRAPPED UP LOW. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE SW LOW GETS PUSHED ALONG BY THE PROGRESSIVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. AS THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THE SFC LOW WILL BE KICKED NNE ALONG THE
LINGERING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW SHOULD PUSH UP TO S WI BY
12Z WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING A SWATH OF OF MOISTURE TO QUICKLY SLIDE N
ACROSS IL AND ON 40-50KT SW 850MB WINDS. COMPARING THE 04/00Z
MODELS...THE CANADIAN STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW OVER LAKE MI AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH TOO MANY
UNKNOWNS...WILL KEEP FROM GETTING TOO SPECIFIC AT THIS TIME. WHILE
BUFKIT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 4-6IN OF SNOW FROM 00-15Z
WEDNESDAY OFF THE NAM AT IWD...THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 1-2IN OF NEW
SNOW. WENT WITH A MORE BROAD 1-4IN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE DGZ IS WAY UP
BETWEEN 500 AND 600MB...WITH SNOW RATIOS MAXING OUT NEAR 10:1. WHILE
SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX TYPE OVER THE W THIRD OF UPPER
MI...WARMER AIR WILL BE TRAPPED EAST UNTIL THE LOW EXITS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EITHER WAY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING LOOK
WET...WITH A CWA AVERAGE INCH OF WATER. THIS IS EVEN A BIT LOWER
THAN OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE FOCUS
SHIFTS A BIT CLOSER TO LAKE MI.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER THE W THIRD AT 00Z THURSDAY WILL EXIT E
OVERNIGHT...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR /850MB TEMPS NEARING -9C/ SLIDING
OVER THE W. ALL SNOW LOOKS REASONABLE FOR OUR LAND AREAS AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER WITH SFC TEMPS STILL IN THE MID 30S...EXPECT
LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY E.
IT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE EXITING SFC LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS
UPPER MI TURING WINDS TO A MORE W DIRECTION. WILL NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH POPS/WX/WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON...AS THERE
ARE SEVERAL DISCREPANCIES THAT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
DRY WX SHOULD AGAIN BE THE RULE FOR MOST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE REGION INITIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW AHEAD
OF A TROUGH INTO MN HAS SUPPORTED MVFR CIGS AT CMX/SAW.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT IWD HAS KEPT CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE.
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT VSBY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH
GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. VEERING WINDS TO WSW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE UPPER MI WILL HELP PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 458 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH MOVING EAST THROUGH
QUEBEC AND A LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HAS LED
TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY
GALES TO 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE
WHERE GALE WARNING ARE POSTED. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING
(TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS BELOW 25KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245-249>251-
264-265.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
306 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
COLD FRONT WILL BE CLEARING THE MPX CWA SHORTLY...TAKING THE WAA
RAINFALL THAT DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT WITH. UPPER WAVE THAT IS
DRIVING ALL OF THIS WAS MOVING INTO WC MN THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BE HEADING FOR NE MN THIS EVENING...SO BATCH OF POST FRONTAL LIGHT
RAIN WILL LARGELY STAY NORTH OF THE MPX AREA AFTER MOVING OUT OF
WRN MN.
SKIES ALREADY CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE LIGHT...WHICH WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
FALL OFF INTO THE 20S. THIS WILL GIVE US A GOOD COOL BASE TO START
FROM FOR THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING
LATER ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
THE NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TRAVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWING STRONG
ADIABATIC OMEGA BEING GENERATED INTO SOUTHERN MN AFTER
21Z...LIFTING TO THE METRO AREA THROUGH 00Z.WED. EXPECT RAIN TO
DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO EAST
CENTRAL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS A
RAIN/SNOW COMBO BUT WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHORTLY AFTER
00Z...AS STRONG LIFT ZONE FROM NEAR REDWOOD FALLS...TO THE TWIN
CITIES MOVES IN. APPEARS TO BE A GOOD 4 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
VALUES AFFECTING THE REGION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS DURING THE EVENT.
STRONG LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH DECENT VERTICAL MOTION
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER SHOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING THE METRO. EXPECTING ABOUT A
70 MILE WIDE BAND OF 3-6 INCHES OF WET SNOW FROM SOUTHWEST MN INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE RESOLVED THE WATCH WITH A SNOW ADVISORY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST...ENDING BY 12Z WED IN MN AND
LINGERING UNTIL 15Z WED FOR WISCONSIN.
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TRAILS THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
SPREAD SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN COOL AND DRY.
THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER DECENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO SPREAD EAST IN MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE IT EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT COOLER AND DEVELOPS SNOW OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW AFFECTING AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA. A LARGE HIGH FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A COOL AND DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO AT 18Z. WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF LGT-MOD RA
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MN. PRECIP BACK ACROSS WRN MN
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH IS HEADING FOR NE MN
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB IN HANDLING PRECIP
SO FAR TODAY...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY IN TAFS. USED THE HRRR/RAP TO
TIME CIG IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN TURNING RATHER QUICKLY OVER TO THE WNW...SO VEERED WINDS A
BIT MORE THAN WHAT GFSLAMP HAS. THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRB...WITH NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP HEADING
FOR THE MPX AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO
THE RWF AREA VERY CLOSE TO 18Z...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A
PRECIP START TIME OF 21Z FOR MSP. HAVE A MIX FOR MSP RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS TAF PERIOD COULD VERY EASILY CLOSE OUT WITH HEAVY
SNOW FALLING...LOTS OF TIME TO REFINE THAT TIMING THOUGH.
KMSP...CIGS FOR A TIME MAY BE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN TAF FOR THE
FIRST HOUR...BUT CONDS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
20Z. MAJORITY OF PERIOD WILL HAVE FEW ISSUES UNTIL THE VERY
END...AS PRECIP RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE FIELD FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW...HAVE A RASN MIX...BUT THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SN BEING THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE...SO MAY HAVE MOD SNOW ALREADY BY 00Z TUE
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NGT...IFR AND LOWER WITH SN/+SN THRU 8Z. 3-5 IN POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -RA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MNZ051>053-059>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091-092.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1219 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WILL ROTATE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST FEED
OF 850-700MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED FROM SOUTHEAST MN
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI...WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z AS A DECENT POCKET OF 700MB OMEGA PASSES. PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR
LESS....ENDING BY 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S AS
WINDS DECREASE AND CLOUDS SCATTER OUT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
SOUTHERN MN AND AREAS OF WC WI WILL GET SNOWFALL TUESDAY
AFTN...THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN PROBLEMS ARE WHETHER
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS TO THE SE
OF MN...LIMITING SNOWFALL AMTS ONCE THE CHG OVER DEVELOPS...OR
WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE TOO WARM WHERE THE HEAVIER QPF AMTS ARE
LOCATED...AND AGAIN DECREASING THE SNOWFALL AMTS.
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 1 KM OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CRITICAL ALONG
WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE 92/85H WINDS WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER
AIR FROM NORTHERN MN TUE/TUE EVENING. CURRENT MODELS ARE HOLDING
ONTO A SCENARIO OF BOTH THE HIGHER RH VALUES AND TEMPS BETWEEN
92-85H ARND -2 TO -4C ALONG A KRWF TO KMSP TO KRCX LINE DURING THE
CRITICAL TIME FRAME OF ENHANCED OMEGA/S. ONLY PROBLEM WITH
SNOWFALL AMTS WOULD BE THE TIME FRAME WHERE BOTH THE MAX OMEGA IN
THE CRITICAL -12 TO -18C DENDRITIC ZONE IS BETWEEN 18Z TUE TO 03Z
WED. USUALLY IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN DURING THE
ONSET OF THE EVENT DURING THE AFTN TIME PERIOD /TEMPS NEAR THE SFC
ABV FREEZING/ LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL WILL ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE
KEEPING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS LOWER THAN EXPECTED BY THE TIME THE
EVENT ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ONLY WAY TO SUPPLEMENT
HIGHER SNOWFALL AMTS WOULD BE TO LOWER TEMPS TO BLW FREEZING IN
THE AFTN...START THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY...KEEPING
TEMPS LOWER THAN FORECASTED...OR HAVE AN ADDITION FOR THE
PRODUCTION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. THE ONLY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
FOR THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IN THE FORM OF
UPRIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE SLOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR CSI
/SLANTWISE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/. EC DOES NOT HAVE ANY TYPE OF
CSI OR ANY CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THIS SYSTEM...AND THE LATEST GFS
HAS LITTLE AND MAINLY TO THE SE OF OUR CWA. THEREFORE...THIS
SCENARIO CAN BE TAKEN OUT FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES. THE BEST
SCENARIO WOULD BE AN AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES FROM KRWF TO KMSP TO
KRCX WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES NEAR KRWF WHERE SOME ENHANCED HIGHER
QPF AMTS ARE LOCATED TUESDAY AFTN. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT MAY
INFLUENCE HIGHER QPF AMTS...AND ADD TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL WOULD BE
THE INTERACTION OF HIGHER PWATS FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS COULD TRANSPORT
HIGHER PWATS INTO THE SYSTEM TUESDAY. TOO MANY DETAILS TO SORT
OUT...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM WATCH.
BY WED AFTN...THE MAIN 50H TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THRU THE UPPER
MIDWEST...CUTTING OFF PRECIPITATION AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT SLIGHTLY AND BECOME MORE ZONAL LEAVING TO SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SHRTWV/S AND PRECIPITATION CHC/S. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT QUICKLY CHG OVER TO RAIN FOR
MOST OF SOUTHERN MN FRIDAY AFTN. NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MUCH WARMER
AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE WSW AND A PACIFIC TYPE AIR MASS TAKES
OVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WRN TWIN CITIES METRO AT 18Z. WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT HAS RESULTED IN A SHIELD OF LGT-MOD RA
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MN. PRECIP BACK ACROSS WRN MN
IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER WAVE...WHICH IS HEADING FOR NE MN
THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR HAS DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB IN HANDLING PRECIP
SO FAR TODAY...SO FOLLOWED IT CLOSELY IN TAFS. USED THE HRRR/RAP TO
TIME CIG IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE
BEEN TURNING RATHER QUICKLY OVER TO THE WNW...SO VEERED WINDS A
BIT MORE THAN WHAT GFSLAMP HAS. THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRB...WITH NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP HEADING
FOR THE MPX AREA AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF. PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO
THE RWF AREA VERY CLOSE TO 18Z...WITH BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW A
PRECIP START TIME OF 21Z FOR MSP. HAVE A MIX FOR MSP RIGHT
NOW...BUT THIS TAF PERIOD COULD VERY EASILY CLOSE OUT WITH HEAVY
SNOW FALLING...LOTS OF TIME TO REFINE THAT TIMING THOUGH.
KMSP...CIGS FOR A TIME MAY BE LOWER THAN INDICATED IN TAF FOR THE
FIRST HOUR...BUT CONDS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
20Z. MAJORITY OF PERIOD WILL HAVE FEW ISSUES UNTIL THE VERY
END...AS PRECIP RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE FIELD FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
NOW...HAVE A RASN MIX...BUT THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SN BEING THE
PREDOMINATE P-TYPE...SO MAY HAVE MOD SNOW ALREADY BY 00Z TUE
EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NGT...IFR AND LOWER WITH SN/+SN THRU 8Z. 3-5 IN POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...MVFR WITH CHC -RA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ045-051>053-058>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-
091-092.
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR WIZ014>016-023>025-027.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1119 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST...AND HAVE ALMOST EXITED THE CWA. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
WELL PORTRAYED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY FOR KPIR/KATY
AS A SYSTEM MOVES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW TO MAKE IT INTO KPIR
TERMINAL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST/NORTHWEST TODAY AND GUSTY...BUT WILL SUBSIDE AND SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1016 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS THIS MORNING AS THE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY
PUSHING EAST...AND HAVE ALMOST EXITED THE CWA. ALSO BUMPED UP SKY
COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES. TEMPERATURES AND WINDS ARE
WELL PORTRAYED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION NOTED. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...ALONG WITH A H85 BAROCLINIC ZONE IS PRODUCING A
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NE...EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL SD. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RUC BRINGS THIS BAND OF PCPN
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE
CWA BY 20Z. BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD
FALL AS LIGHT RAIN....WITH THE EXCEPTION TO THE MORNING HOURS.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PAST
FEW MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND THE NAM HAVE SHOWN LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS SHOW THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FALLING TO THE MID TEENS. THIS
SEEMS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
UPSTREAM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AOA 20C OVER MOST
OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TRY AND
ERODE THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED LIFT IN THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION...BELIEVE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ONLY AFFECT
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212...WITH THE I-90 CORRIDOR LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK RIDGING SETTING UP THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT BY A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS OVER
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WITH IT...JUST NOT
IS EXACTLY WHERE. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WILL SCHC/CHC POPS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND LOOKS TO KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
CWA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
AMOUNTS OR REDUCE CIGS OR VSBYS BELOW VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
331 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STATE OF THE FORECAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THIS EVENING.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PANHANDLES REMAIN LOCKED
IN DRY SUBSIDENCE AIR BEHIND THE EARLY MORNING FRONT. THIS WILL BE A
BIT OF A LIMITING FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 3 HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHILE LEAVING PERCENTAGES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETS CLOSER THIS DRY SLOT SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE RETURN. INCREASED POPS IN THE NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO REFLECT THE RECENT TREND OF HIGHER POPS FURTHER
WEST AS SHOWN IN THE HRRR RUC.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HAVE RETAINED PREVIOUS POPS AND STRUCTURE
BUT SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. THIS
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS A REFLECTION OF THE TREND THIS SEASON OF
NOCTURNAL COLD FRONTS MOVING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS MUCH
SOONER THAN MODELS SUGGEST. THERE REMAINS A BRIEF WINDOW TUESDAY
NIGHT WHERE THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES MAY SEE SOME WINTRY MIX BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND WILL SEE A
SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER THE INITIAL DIP IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY MORNING REMAINS THE TIME FRAME FOR A THE NEXT WIDESPREAD KILLING
FREEZE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT OR 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
09/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1202 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
TRANSITIONING CIGS DOWN TO INTO MVFR/IFR BY THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY TO BE A VERY CHALLENGING WITH OFF/ON
MOSTLY -RA/-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY RIPPLE THROUGH
THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TS SONIA YESTERDAY WILL ADD TO
SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR THE OFF/ON -RA/-SHRA OVERNIGHT. MID LEVELS
WILL REMAIN TOO WARM WITH MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. FEEL THE
CHANCES FOR TS/VCTS WILL BE NEAR NIL THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
VFR CIGS WITH SPOTTY IFR WILL START THE FORECAST...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO SATURATE AND COOL. THE CONTINUOUS RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN IFR CIGS AT ALL AIRPORTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH
PERIODIC BREAKS INTO LOW MVFR MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME. VFR
VSBYS WILL FALL INTO MVFR AS THE -RA/-SHRA BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT. THE BEST WAA AND LIFT SHIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE REGION
AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL LIFT CIGS BACK UP INTO LOW MVFR CATEGORY...
THOUGH IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IFR MAY MAINTAIN IF THE BOUNDARY
CANNOT WARM AFTER SUNRISE OR IF THE RAIN LINGERS LONGER THAN
EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-14 KTS THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO THE
EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST 7-9 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
CHANCES FOR VCTS/TS/TSRA TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OVER THE
PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO THE AREA. FROPA ARRIVES INTO
THE DFW METRO BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST 15-20 KTS. FROPA AT WACO EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND/OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
05/
&&
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS AREA SLOWLY
MOVING NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND WILL LEAVE THE LIKELY
POPS IN THE FORECAST WHERE THEY CURRENTLY ARE. OVERNIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HEAVIER WITH DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT
ANTICIPATED. THE BEGINNING OF THAT LIFT IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND
IS LEADING TO SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON.
HAMPSHIRE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON NOV 4 2013/
A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS
ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER. LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL COME
TOGETHER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS
AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS SHOULD END
QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE INCREASES.
OVERALL...THIS SHOULD BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT FOR NORTH
TEXAS WITH AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES
OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION INTENSITY THROUGH
THE EVENT SHOULD NOT RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RIVERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THAT SAW
FLOODING FROM THE LAST RAIN EVENT MAY RESPOND QUICKLY AND COULD GO
BACK INTO FLOOD.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
COUNTRY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON THE WEEKEND
AND ALLOW A SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S DUE TO THE
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
WILL RESULT IN VERY COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND SOME FROST POSSIBLE IN
RURAL AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND DUE TO ABUNDANT SUN AND THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 58 72 63 67 / 60 70 70 80 60
WACO, TX 66 62 74 64 67 / 60 60 50 80 60
PARIS, TX 63 54 68 62 66 / 60 70 70 80 70
DENTON, TX 66 58 72 62 65 / 60 70 70 80 40
MCKINNEY, TX 64 58 71 62 66 / 60 70 70 80 60
DALLAS, TX 65 59 72 63 66 / 60 70 70 80 60
TERRELL, TX 64 58 73 64 68 / 60 70 60 80 70
CORSICANA, TX 65 59 73 64 68 / 60 60 50 80 70
TEMPLE, TX 64 60 74 64 67 / 60 60 40 70 60
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 57 72 57 64 / 60 70 70 70 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/85