Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/03/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
754 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVEL OCCURS IN
THE EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING...BUT THEN THE RATE OF POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL DECREASE LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE
AREA WILL BECOME CLOSER TO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC LIFT. HRRR MODEL HAS
TRENDED DRIER SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE LOWERED WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR THE MOST NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING
ACROSS. WIND WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY.
SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KT POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NYC METRO URBAN HEAT
ISLAND...ALSO COASTAL SECTIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND.
LOWS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR PINE BARRENS OF LONG
ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE SOME INITIAL COOLING
WITH LESS CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREES
BELOW FORECAST SO FAR. OVERALL THOUGH...LOWS WILL STILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S WELL INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MORNING CLOUDS WILL UNFORTUNATELY PREVENT VIEWING OF THE EARLY
MORNING PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE...AND SKIES SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY
CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. GUSTY N WINDS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND A SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR...WITH URBAN/COASTAL SECTIONS BARELY
REACHING 50S...AND INLAND SECTIONS REMAINING IN THE MID AND
UPPER 40S.
THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ON A CONTINUED GUSTY N
FLOW...WITH 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND NO
HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S IN MOST OF NYC AND NASSAU COUNTY. A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR URBAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET ENDED. FROST UNLIKELY TO OCCUR WHERE
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE A GRADUALLY
LIFTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE WITH
A WARMING TREND OVERALL TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH
OFFSHORE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD AIR MASS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER FOR LATER
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING
OUT TOWARDS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AN OSCILLATING TREND TO
ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHETHER OR NOT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS
WILL DETERMINE THE LONGEVITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
LINGERING PRECIP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES GOING INTO FRIDAY.
A SCENARIO WITH LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENABLE FASTER
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PARTS OF THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PASS
THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP.
VFR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...NO IMPACT TO
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW...RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC FOR A TIME...AROUND 10KT
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
TO 10KT TO 15KT. A FEW HIGH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR.
.MON THROUGH WED...PATCHY MORNING FOG TUE AND WED...OTHERWISE VFR.
.THU...LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW THEN N AFTER FROPA...AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
WILL NOT INCLUDE A SCA HEADLINE YET FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING
LONG ISLAND...AS GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS MAY ONLY OCCUR
BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTS JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA MAY OCCUR
IN NY HARBOR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY HAVE TO RAISE SCA THERE.
LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE OCEAN FOR MON
MORNING. THEREAFTER DUE TO A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...
WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. SCA CONDITIONS COULD THEN RETURN FOR THU WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO 30-35 PERCENT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WED. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE THU NIGHT. GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF PRECIP SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED. QPF GENERALLY 0.75
INCH OR LESS WITH CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR CSTL FLOODING BENCHMARKS DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LONG
ISLAND SOUND.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ009>011.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071-074-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
FINE LINE OF LOW TOP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME FRAGMENTED
ACROSS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LINE IS MORE ROBUST ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MUCAPE /ALBEIT
MINIMAL/ IS OVER CT AND POINTS SOUTH. THUS EXPECTING STRONGEST
WIND AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE. AS
RESULT THREAT FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY
INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IF LINE REMAINS IN TACT.
SURPRISINGLY PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR NOT HANDLING/CAPTURING THIS
LINE VERY WELL. ITS SURPRISINGLY GIVEN HRRR USUALLY PERFORMS WELL
IN STRONGLY FORCED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENTS.
THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS MARKED BY A COLD FRONT AND A PRES
RISE/FALL COUPLET. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS NOT MUCH
COOLER...STILL MILD BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH DEW
PTS FALLING FROM THE 60S INTO THE 50S. THIS DRIER AIR AND A WIND
SHIFT TO WSW WILL HELP STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA
INTO SOUTHWEST NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
------------------------------------------------------------------
DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE
INCLUDING HRRR. EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES
WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING
BACK TO THE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL
ENTRENCHED WITH TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET.
ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES
DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT
STALLS.
WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE
12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S
PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND
ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND
ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS
BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST
TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS
TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN
TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
* COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.
* POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH
TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW.
EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH
THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC
ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH
TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT
TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...
MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL.
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE
MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO
TODAY.
SUNDAY...
THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE
THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA
BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN
HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY
OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL
TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN
IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING
LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
1030 AM UPDATE...
LINE OF LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AS
MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL
BE STRONGER ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IF LINE
REMAINS IN TACT. SSW WINDS GUSTS TO 45 KT INTO THROUGH THIS
MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO WSW THIS AFTERNOON WITH G40KT ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MA INTO NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 18-21Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45
KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.
TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT
ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT
MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING
SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE
ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FLOODING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
907 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
9 AM UPDATE...
FINE LINE OF LOW TOP CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND
WESTERN NJ WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT APPROACHES AND
ENTERS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE...AS BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.
NEVERTHELESS WIND THREAT REMAINS HIGH AS OUR KBOX RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILE DETECTING 60 KT OF WIND AT 2 KFT HERE IN TAUNTON MA. CORE
OF 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA
THROUGH 15Z/11AM...THEN BEGINNING TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WIND
THREAT REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL HELP TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. ALSO
HIGHER TERRAIN REMAIN AT RISK GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT.
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEPARTURE OF
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS YIELDING GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THUS
EXPECT A WINDY DAY FROM START TO FINISH WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING
AROUND SUNSET.
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WILL BE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS AS 9 AM
READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR 70 /70 AT MARSHFIELD/! WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE IN THE U70S /BOS AND PVD/ L70S
FOR ORH AND L80S FOR BDL. NOT SURPRISING REGARDING THIS NEAR
RECORD WARMTH GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET BEING +3 STD FROM
CLIMO. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
------------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD
ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT
RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR. EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE
ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH
THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR
AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET.
ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES
DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT
STALLS.
WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE
12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S
PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND
ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND
ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS
BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST
TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS
TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN
TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
* COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.
* POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH
TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW.
EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH
THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC
ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH
TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT
TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...
MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL.
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE
MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO
TODAY.
SUNDAY...
THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE
THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA
BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN
HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY
OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL
TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN
IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING
LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
9 AM UPDATE...
LINE OF LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NJ WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL
BE STRONGER ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS. SSW WINDS GUSTS TO 45 KT INTO THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN
SHIFT TO WSW THIS AFTERNOON WITH G45KT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA INTO
NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
TODAY...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 18-21Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45
KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.
TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT
ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT
MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING
SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE
ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FLOODING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
730 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE
PRECIP CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE FINE LINE OUT ACROSS NY/PA.
HAVE NOT SEEN A LOT OF DAMAGE REPORTS FROM THIS FINE
LINE...HOWEVER WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...COULD SEE SOME MIXING OF THE LLJ DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS
LLJ IS ALREADY NEARING 55-65 KTS PER LATEST VWP DATA. WITH THAT
BEING SAID...STRONG GUSTS OF 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALLOWING
FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.
CURRENTLY GUSTS ARE BETWEEN 20-35 KTS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE CHANGES TO
ONGOING HAZARDS IS NOT NEEDED. PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO WANE
BETWEEN 18-21Z ALLOWING FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON TO BE SOMEWHAT
PLEASANT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR.
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE
EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH
TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET.
ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES
DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT
STALLS.
WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE
12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S
PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND
ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND
ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS
BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST
TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS
TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN
TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
* COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.
* POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH
TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW.
EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH
THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC
ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH
TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT
TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...
MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL.
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE
MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO
TODAY.
SUNDAY...
THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE
THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA
BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN
HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY
OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL
TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN
IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING
LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 18-21Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO
40-45 KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.
TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT
ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT
MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING
SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE
ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FLOODING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
417 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR
THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING
WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR.
EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE
EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH
TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET.
ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES
DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS
COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT
STALLS.
WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE
12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS
TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S
PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST-
FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND
ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING
TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND
ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN
MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS
BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST
TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS
TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN
TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
* COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK.
* POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH
TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW.
EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH
THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC
ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE
MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS
SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH
TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT
TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...
MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL.
HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE
MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO
TODAY.
SUNDAY...
THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE
THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA
BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN
HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY
OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL
TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY....
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY
NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN
IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING
LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS
AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
THROUGH 12Z...CIGS BEGINNING TO LOWER TO MVFR AND EXPECT AREAS OF
IFR TO DEVELOP. FOG WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN WITH PATCHY MVFR
VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO FAR NW ZONES. WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DEVELOPING.
FRI...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...EXITING 16-20Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO MVFR VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45 KT
RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS.
TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT
ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER
SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT
MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING
SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE
ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT ANY FLOODING.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026.
NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250-
251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
946 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DRY COLD FRONT AT MID EVENING WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND IT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE PRES TENDENCIES
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA SHOW READINGS
ALREADY RISING AT GREATER THAN 1 MB PER HOUR SINCE 00Z AND HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR THE STORY...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL AROUND AT 930 PM OVER SE GEORGIA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH... BUT THESE CLOUDS UNLIKELY TO
PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN UNDERWAY...LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT SEVERAL
INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED MANY AREAS FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CONSOLIDATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WITH ONE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MERGE INTO A SPRAWLING
AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL COVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS COINCIDES WITH A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN DURING SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY...BEFORE THIS RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD ATOP
THE AREA MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH IS A
TUTT LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THAT MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
TRAIL TO THE EAST AND SE OF THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY-WINDY ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSED...EVENTUALLY THERE IS AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG NE AND
EAST FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL MCINTOSH AND
COASTAL LIBERTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO ALL OF COASTAL SE GA
AND MAYBE INTO THE SHORELINE AREAS OF SOUTHERN SC ON TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
WINDS RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AS A STRONG PINCH-FEST DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS THEY CLIMB
UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INLAND WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH.
THE COOL ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MAX TEMPS TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S MOST PLACES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A GREATER
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE DAYS IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST...SO FINE-TUNING MAY BE IN
ORDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WILL EXIST BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
FROM INLAND TO THE COAST...WITH AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE SPREAD FROM
PLACES ALONG THE COLDER NW TIER TO THE MILDER BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...YET STILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS THE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT FEATURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD LOSE STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING ITS
PROGRESSION. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BEFORE
A COOLING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY DURING MID MORNING INTO THE 10-15 KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-END CHANCE OF PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FROPA GIVEN THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE LIKELY...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS PORTRAYED BY MODELS SUCH AS LOCAL WRF DATA AND
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG OF SURGE RELATED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
SUNDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1029 MB HIGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS CONSOLIDATING
CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EARLY DAY COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN NORTH AND NE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT WE/LL
NEED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAG FOR AMZ374...BUT GIVEN
THAT THE FREQUENCY OF ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IS LIMITED WE HAVE
REFRAINED AT THIS STAGE FROM DOING SO. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 5 FT OR
LESS...ALTHOUGH A FEW 6-FOOTERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME EAST
PORTION OUTER GA WATERS LATE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A NASTY MARINE EVENT WILL UNFOLD FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE TIME...WITH SOLID SMALL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR...WITH EVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT THAT GALES
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A HUMONGOUS AND INTENSIFYING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXPAND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOWER
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A LARGE
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WITH TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS WILL PREVAIL.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ARE GREATER
THANH 30 OR 35 KT...WITH EVEN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OF 40 OR EVEN 45 KT
TO OCCUR. SOUNDING PROFILES REVEAL A SOLID 25-30 KT WITHIN THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH EVEN A FEW LAYERS OVER 30 KT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE FEEL HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT SCA/S WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC
AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ON MONDAY...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
GALES COULD BE HOISTED AT A LATER TIME. SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD
WITH THE FAVORABLE AND LONG DURATION AND LONG-TRAVELED NE TO EAST
FETCH...AND WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 10 OR 11 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE OR STRONG ONSHORE IS IN THE OFFING
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SOLID 3-4 MILLIBAR SPREAD WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON SUNDAY
AND THE UPCOMING PERIGEE ON WEDNESDAY. SO IT WON/T TAKE TOO MUCH OF
A POSITIVE DEPARTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...THERE IS EVEN THE RISK OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND GIVEN
THE LONG DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS THERE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE AREAS
OF BEACH EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD AS
HIGH AS 6-9 FEET AND WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW ONSHORE BREAKERS IN THE
SURF ZONE COULD ATTAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER WATCH ON POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS
NAVIGATING IN AND OUT OF HARBORS AND PORTS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...33
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
511 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO STORM CELLS ARE CURRENTLY
BEING DETECTED BY LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR MODEL INDICATING
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THINK ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY. LATER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE CLOSE WITH
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN -RA AND BR AT ALL SITES. IN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RA
AND BR.
THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z...WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN TO VFR. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN LOW AND MID LEVELS...CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT
THE WILDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALL NIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
509 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EVENING. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING....
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. NO STORM CELLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED BY LOCAL AND
REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR MODEL INDICATING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MID-EVENING...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING. THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED
DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS
CONSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE CLOSE WITH
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS SUPPORT
CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN -RA AND BR AT ALL SITES. IN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RA
AND BR.
THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z...WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN TO VFR. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN LOW AND MID LEVELS...CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR
SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT
THE WILDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALL NIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED AT MIDDAY.
THE HRRR INDICATES COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 300 PM
AND 500 PM POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS. CLOUDINESS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE KCAE VAD
WIND PROFILE INDICATED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AND 50 KNOTS
AT 3000 FEET. SOME OF THIS WIND COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT 800 PM WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF
THE AREA BY 1000 PM. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE RAINFALL MOVES IN...MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -RA AND BR AT ALL SITES. IN
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RA AND BR.
THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL AND
MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 22Z...WITH
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN TO VFR. WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN LOW AND MID LEVELS...CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT
THE WILDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALL NIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1203 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED AT MIDDAY.
THE HRRR INDICATES COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 300 PM
AND 500 PM POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS. CLOUDINESS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE KCAE VAD
WIND PROFILE INDICATED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AND 50 KNOTS
AT 3000 FEET. SOME OF THIS WIND COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT 800 PM WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF
THE AREA BY 1000 PM. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE
OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF
STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1038 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED LATE THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR INDICATES COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 300 PM AND
500 PM POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE
PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS. CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD
POSSIBLY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE KCAE VAD WIND
PROFILE INDICATED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AND 50 KNOTS AT
3000 FEET. SOME OF THIS WIND COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT 800 PM WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF
THE AREA BY 1000 PM. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE
OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF
STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
956 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS MORNING
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 5 PM.
A 120-KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JETLET WILL PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH 2+
INCHES OF PWAT AND A 50-KNOT H85 JET PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO
AROUND -2 MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
OCCUR DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF
MEAN INDICATE RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH AND THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE BASED ON THE STRONG H85 JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUS
THE HRRR DISPLAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING LATER TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRIER AND COOL AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE
OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF
STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
852 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS MORNING
OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING
ESPECIALLY TOWARD 5 PM.
A 120-KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JETLET WILL PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH 2+
INCHES OF PWAT AND A 50-KNOT H85 JET PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO
AROUND -2 MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR
ALTHOUGH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
OCCUR DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF
MEAN INDICATE RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH AND THIS APPEARS
POSSIBLE BASED ON THE STRONG H85 JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUS
THE HRRR DISPLAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING LATER TODAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRIER AND COOL AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE
FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE
REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL
BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE
LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN.
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO
BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING
EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE
DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE
OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF
STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. STRONG SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDES. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT AFD TIME...WITH SOME PATCHY RETURNS SHOWING UP HERE AND
THERE ON RADAR. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND
FROM THESE WEAK ECHOES BUT THEIR EXISTENCE DOES LEND SOME CREDENCE
TO THE HRRR SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS ALL REALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE FOR THE MOST PART THE CWA WILL REMAIN
PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES NORTHWEST BUT
REALLY HAVE NOT STARTED INCREASING POPS UNTIL AFTER THAT POINT.
SHOULD ENCROACH UPON THE METRO AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND TOWARDS CENTRAL GEORGIA /MACON AREA/ BY 12Z. SO TRICK-OR-
TREATING SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING.
ONTO SOME DETAILS...STARTING WITH QPF...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
OVERALL BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AN INCH
THROUGH THE EVENT. NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF VALUES
ESPECIALLY 12-18Z FRIDAY BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED PRECIP ISSUES ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS.
OTHER CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...NAM IS
MORE UNSTABLE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BUT THE GFS IS COMING IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MUCAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH OVER
700 J/KG...NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM. EXPECT THAT ANY PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS
SHOWERS...THOUGH DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN STARTING AT 06Z
NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY ONLY WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY OR HIGHER.
SWATH OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE METRO AREA BY AROUND
12Z...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 18Z. SO OVERALL VERY...VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT WHEN CONTRASTED WITH THE VERY STRONG
SHEAR...WE CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BY 06Z
TONIGHT ARE OVER 40KT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH 60-70KT 0-6KM
SHEAR. 0-1KM SHEAR DROPS OFF THROUGH TIME TO GENERALLY BELOW 35KT BY
12Z FRIDAY...AND LESS THAN 30KT BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT OVER 60KT. SO WE HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY FROM 06-18Z FRIDAY AND DECREASING SHEAR. SOMEWHERE IN
THERE A PERFECT JUXTAPOSITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS A SEE
TEXT FOR DAY2 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
POINT TO FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEING OF GREATER
CONCERN THAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHERB PARAMETER...WHICH WAS
CALIBRATED TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW
CAPE SEVERE WEATHER...IS MAXIMIZED LATE THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM JUST BEFORE 18Z TOMORROW /RIGHT BEFORE
FROPA/ AROUND THE METRO AREA.
OF COURSE...ALL THAT SAID /OR WRITTEN/...OVERALL CONCERN FOR SEVERE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. IT JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES BUT PULLED BACK ON BIAS ADJUSTMENT DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND IMPENDING AIRMASS CHANGE.
TDP
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING THE
LONG TERM DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE H5 TROUGH WILL EXIT
THE U.S. SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEAR
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO
THE H5 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE HIGH AND
BRINGS A FAST MOVING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION ARE THE CEILINGS AND WIND. RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA HAS CAUSED CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE.
EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS NEAR
12Z. SOME GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. EXPECT GUSTS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. WITH FROPA
NW WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
ARG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 70 48 69 42 / 90 10 0 0
ATLANTA 71 50 67 43 / 80 10 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 71 43 61 38 / 60 20 20 0
CARTERSVILLE 73 44 67 40 / 60 5 0 0
COLUMBUS 73 51 72 44 / 90 10 0 0
GAINESVILLE 72 49 67 42 / 80 10 10 0
MACON 74 49 74 41 / 90 20 0 0
ROME 72 43 66 40 / 50 5 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 69 38 / 90 10 0 0
VIDALIA 78 58 76 48 / 90 80 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ARG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS
EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE
REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK!
AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN
STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A
STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24
TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY
NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE
PUN).
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING
TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN
STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART
OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA
BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY
DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE
SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL
WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM 18E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING
ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS ARND 1800-2000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
* WEST WINDS ARND 10-14KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THRU 21-22Z...THEN
SPEEDS ARND 10-13KT THRU THIS EVENING.
* A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY MAINLY
BETWEEN 23-02Z.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY ANY
IMPROVEMENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM. WINDS REMAIN
WESTERLY...HOWEVER A WEAK ELEVATED WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTN AND BRING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE NOTED AT VARIOUS POINTS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER
EXPECT WITH THE WAVE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AND WINDS
TURNING NW THAT THE GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
ARND 10-13KT. IN ADDITION TO THE OVERHEAD WAVE THAT IS SLIDING
OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. TIMING FOR ANY PRECIP DOES LOOK TO BE FAVORED BETWEEN 23Z
AND 02Z...SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE CURRENT TAF.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SLUGGISH WITH LIFTING CIGS BEYOND 2KFT
AGL OVERNIGHT...AND IN MANY INSTANCES WILL HOLD DOWN ARND
1700-1800FT AGL. GIVEN THE TREND HAS BEEN TO HOLD ONTO LOW
CIGS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CIGS DOWN GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS
UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
MORE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS LATE
SAT MORNING...AND EXPECT BETTER MIXING TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A SCT
CLOUD DECK ARND 3000-4000FT AGL BY 17-18Z SAT.
BEACHLER
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTS DISSIPATING BY 23Z.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS HOLDING AT MVFR CONDS THRU DAYBREAK SAT.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRECIP AFT 22Z THRU 02Z.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VF
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...VFR
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR. RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
344 AM CDT
GALES ON LAKE MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON. W PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LABRADOR BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER DURING LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL BE FRESHENING OUT THE SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE
HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E
INTO THE PLAINS.
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9AM CDT THIS
A.M. THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ON THE N PORTION OF LAKE MI SHOULD BE
BELOW GALES WITH ONLY SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATER MORNING
UNTIL WINDS DROP OFF. WITH W WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT
WAVES DID NOT BUILD GREATLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IL SHORE
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1020 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
Southern edge of stratocumulus roughly along a Macomb to Paris
line late this morning. This has not made a lot of southward
progress over the last few hours, but morning model guidance
continues to show a southern nudge through the afternoon as a
weak trough drops southward through Wisconsin. Updated zones/grids
were sent to make some adjustments for the cloud trends for
today. Temperatures and winds were largely on track and only
required minor tweaks.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
Persistent area of stratocumulus from KPIA-KBMI-KCMI to persist
for several more hours and slowly sink southward. Still seeing a
fair amount of MVFR ceilings further north as a weak trough drops
southward, which will likely affect these sites at times. Around
KSPI/KDEC, diurnal clouds have been increasing and mostly should
be VFR. Will see much of the lower clouds pull out shortly after
00Z, but another area of stratocumulus associated with an upper
disturbance over the Dakotas may move in again later on.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover
in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today.
07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over
much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the
clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this
morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and
south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling
aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal
cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the
northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across
the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly
sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on
water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward
later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may
trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across
the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have
included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late
this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave,
forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip
through tonight.
Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high
pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in
the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to
middle 30s by Sunday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of
building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of
approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had
featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over
the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially
slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the
Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across
central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both
the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus
brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit
faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better
agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a
more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to
focus highest PoPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame
when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have
opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model
guidance pushes front east of the region.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1117 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS
EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE
REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK!
AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN
STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A
STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24
TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY
NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE
PUN).
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING
TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN
STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART
OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA
BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY
DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE
SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL
WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM 18E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING
ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* CEILING HEIGHTS ARND 2KFT AGL THRU LATE AFTN.
* WIND GUSTS TO 20KT THRU THIS AFTN.
* PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
BEACHLER
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z...
CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE POISED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN
AIRFIELDS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVING EARLY THIS
AFTN...THAT CIGS MAY COME UP A BIT ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. SO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AFTN CIGS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UPDATED 12Z...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THOUGH A STRONG JET DROPPING SE FROM B.C. AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW ARE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES THE FIRST OF WHICH IS
TURNING MORE TO THE E OVER IA AND NORTHERN MO AS IT NEARS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MIDDAY.
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY PRECIP OF NOTE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM AROUND 6K FT AGL UP.
MODELS BRING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
NEARING SATURATION 22Z-00Z. MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP
AMOUNTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT WETTING SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY WENT FROM PROB30 TO VCSH FOR 12Z
SET OF TAFS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH TIME THOUGH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SO A MODERATE FLOW SHOULD
PERSIST TODAY. WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY W
THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BACKING AS EACH SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE VEERING AS EACH PASSES BY.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN WSW AND WNW.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL SHOWS A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUD BASES SO HAVE LEFT PREVAILING VFR IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHEN EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER BACK INTO MVFR RANGE.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
BEACHLER
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VF
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...VFR
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR. RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
344 AM CDT
GALES ON LAKE MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON. W PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LABRADOR BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER DURING LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL BE FRESHENING OUT THE SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE
HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E
INTO THE PLAINS.
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9AM CDT THIS
A.M. THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ON THE N PORTION OF LAKE MI SHOULD BE
BELOW GALES WITH ONLY SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATER MORNING
UNTIL WINDS DROP OFF. WITH W WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT
WAVES DID NOT BUILD GREATLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IL SHORE
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1020 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1020 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
Southern edge of stratocumulus roughly along a Macomb to Paris
line late this morning. This has not made a lot of southward
progress over the last few hours, but morning model guidance
continues to show a southern nudge through the afternoon as a
weak trough drops southward through Wisconsin. Updated zones/grids
were sent to make some adjustments for the cloud trends for
today. Temperatures and winds were largely on track and only
required minor tweaks.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
West to northwest flow will persist across the central Illinois
terminals today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A period of
gusty winds is expected for much of the daytime hours today due to
a moderately strong pressure gradient lingering in the area, as
will as enhanced diurnal mixing.
Wrap around moisture will produce cigs across much of the area
today, with period of MVFR or even IFR likely this morning though
most of the terminals. Cigs will rise with time today, with VFR
cigs expected to develop area wide by tonight.
Bak
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover
in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today.
07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over
much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the
clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this
morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and
south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling
aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal
cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the
northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across
the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly
sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on
water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward
later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may
trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across
the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have
included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late
this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave,
forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip
through tonight.
Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high
pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in
the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to
middle 30s by Sunday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of
building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of
approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had
featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over
the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially
slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the
Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across
central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both
the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus
brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit
faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better
agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a
more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to
focus highest PoPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame
when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have
opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model
guidance pushes front east of the region.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
712 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS
EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE
REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK!
AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN
STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A
STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24
TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY
NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE
PUN).
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING
TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN
STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART
OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA
BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY
DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE
SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL
WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM 18E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING
ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* CEILING HEIGHTS.
* WIND GUSTS.
* PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
TRS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THOUGH A STRONG JET DROPPING SE FROM B.C. AND
SOUTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN
THIS NW FLOW ARE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES THE FIRST OF WHICH IS
TURNING MORE TO THE E OVER IA AND NORTHERN MO AS IT NEARS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MIDDAY.
THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY PRECIP OF NOTE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS THERE IS STILL A
SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM AROUND 6K FT AGL UP.
MODELS BRING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS
NEARING SATURATION 22Z-00Z. MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP
AMOUNTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT WETTING SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY WENT FROM PROB30 TO VCSH FOR 12Z
SET OF TAFS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH TIME THOUGH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SO A MODERATE FLOW SHOULD
PERSIST TODAY. WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY W
THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BACKING AS EACH SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE VEERING AS EACH PASSES BY.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN WSW AND WNW.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL SHOWS A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE
CLOUD BASES SO HAVE LEFT PREVAILING VFR IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHEN EXPECT CEILINGS TO
LOWER BACK INTO MVFR RANGE.
TRS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
TRS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VF
SUNDAY...VFR
MONDAY...VFR
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR. RAIN LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
344 AM CDT
GALES ON LAKE MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC BY THIS
AFTERNOON. W PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LABRADOR BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER DURING LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY
SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL BE FRESHENING OUT THE SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE
HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E
INTO THE PLAINS.
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9AM CDT THIS
A.M. THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ON THE N PORTION OF LAKE MI SHOULD BE
BELOW GALES WITH ONLY SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATER MORNING
UNTIL WINDS DROP OFF. WITH W WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT
WAVES DID NOT BUILD GREATLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IL SHORE
TRS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover
in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today.
07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over
much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the
clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this
morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and
south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling
aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal
cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the
northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across
the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly
sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on
water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward
later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may
trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across
the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have
included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late
this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave,
forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip
through tonight.
Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high
pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in
the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to
middle 30s by Sunday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of
building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of
approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had
featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over
the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially
slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the
Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across
central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both
the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus
brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit
faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better
agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a
more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to
focus highest POPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame
when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have
opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model
guidance pushes front east of the region.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
West to northwest flow will persist across the central Illinois
terminals today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A period of
gusty winds is expected for much of the daytime hours today due to
a moderately strong pressure gradient lingering in the area, as
will as enhanced diurnal mixing.
Wrap around moisture will produce cigs across much of the area
today, with period of MVFR or even IFR likely this morning though
most of the terminals. Cigs will rise with time today, with VFR
cigs expected to develop areawide by tonight.
Bak
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
312 AM CDT
PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS
EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE
REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK!
AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN
STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A
STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24
TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP
RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY
NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE
PUN).
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING
TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.
CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN
STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART
OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA
BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD
RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY
DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A
COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT.
NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE
SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR
GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL
WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM 97E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING
ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT.
IZZI
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
* GUSTY NNWLY WINDS BACKING TO WLY. GUSTS SUBSIDING FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KREIN
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS AND THE BULK OF
THE ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
SCT SHRA FOR A FEW MORE HRS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A
PREVAILING CONDITION. WITH THE WARM..HUMID AIR PUSHING TO THE EAST
WITH THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THE IFR CIGS HAVE ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF THE WARM...HUMID
AIRMASS...BUT PERSISTENT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MVFR
CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME DIURNAL WARMING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
WILL WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 20-25KT FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD
THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE
DROPPING AROUND THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR...BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRA AS WELL AS RENEWED GUSTINESS FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
KREIN
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS.
* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS.
* MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
KREIN
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. CHANCE MVFR CIGS/VIS.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE
MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY. VFR LIKELY LATE.
KREIN
&&
.MARINE...
209 PM CDT
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THIS EVENING AS IT NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN. NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES OF GALES FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE AND
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AS THE LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL ALSO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALES
DEVELOPING WITH NEARLY 40-44KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC FRI AFTN/EVE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE
FRI MORNING...WITH GALES ENDING BY MID-MORNING FRI.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WESTERLY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVES FRI EVE...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY. A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SAT. THE GRADIENT DOESN/T COMPLETELY GO
AWAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING ARND 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. THEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND STRETCHES
TO COVER LAKE MICHIGAN SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS. THE WEATHER REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN GALES TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover
in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today.
07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over
much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the
clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this
morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and
south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling
aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal
cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the
northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across
the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly
sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on
water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward
later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may
trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across
the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have
included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late
this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave,
forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip
through tonight.
Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high
pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in
the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to
middle 30s by Sunday morning.
LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday
Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of
building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of
approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had
featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over
the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially
slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the
Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across
central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both
the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus
brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit
faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better
agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a
more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to
focus highest POPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame
when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have
opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model
guidance pushes front east of the region.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
MVFR clouds look to be holding tough in the post frontal airmass.
Even some IFR cigs down to 700-900 ft will be possible in the
first few hours of the tafs. Wrap around moisture will have an
opportunity to rotate into IL on brisk west winds, before the
surface and upper lows make progress to the NE. Forecast soundings
are looking more pessimistic on clouds even on Friday as strato-
cumulus develop in the 3500ft layer. We should remain VFR, but a
bit cloudier than previous forecasts. No precip is expected, but
Friday evening will see showers in N IL drop toward I-74 by
midnight, or the later hours of this taf period.
Winds will remain brisk from the WSW, with gusts to 22-24kt at
times...mainly in response to the deepening surface low across the
Great Lakes and building high pressure in the Plains. Winds should
veer to the NW on Friday.
Vis reductions may dip 5sm br due to saturated boundary levels,
but steady winds should preclude vis dropping much lower than that
the rest of tonight.
Shimon
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE
TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD
SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT
IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV
Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE
PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE
SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.
IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT
THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST
CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS
TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN
EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY LIGHT SURFACE WIND SHIFTS DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE AIR MASS
UNSATURATED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS IS THE CHALLENGING PART OF
THE FORECAST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE A GOOD BET LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. GFS IS WARM THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST...GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. PROGGED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL...SO THE FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING POTENT. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE SNOW
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF RAIN/NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL...AND ALL RAIN FURTHER EAST. SNOW POTENTIAL NOW IS 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH DUE TO CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS. SO DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I COULDNT RULE OUT VIRGA OR ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AT KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT IN
PLACE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 40KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 8KT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
124 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PARTICULAR WEATHER SYSTEM IS GROWING AS ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE SAME UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE WARM GFS AND THE
MUCH COLDER EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS.
AS STATED ABOVE...MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH AND TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD.
MONDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR THIS
SYSTEM ARE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL
FOR TIMING WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO LAG BY 6 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS
BECAUSE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BOTH THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT A STRONG PV ANOMALY WITH TROPOPAUSE
HEIGHTS DROPPING TO 400-500 MB. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...OR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A PRONOUNCED COOLING OVER THE
REGION WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS AS THE COOLEST
SOLUTIONS. IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THE WARM GFS WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD
COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION SO FOR THIS
PACKAGE...HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS. THIS IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OF A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THIS...IT SEEMS
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
EXITING THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS BAND COULD BE SNOW BASED ON
MODEL INDICATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM. THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION...A LINE FROM OBERLIN KANSAS TO
CHEYENNE WELLS KANSAS...IS ADVERTISED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED ADVERTISING RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST
OF THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE CONCERNS. IT IS POSSIBLE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BAND
OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A COOLER SOLUTION WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN
PRODUCED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE
IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I COULDNT RULE OUT VIRGA OR ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AT KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT IN
PLACE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 40KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 8KT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
318 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED
LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO
THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE
AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE
THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED
THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING
EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE
WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS...
THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER
FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE
ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP
UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND
HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED
SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID
40S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AS OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE 0Z RUNS. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WITH THE GFS MOVING ITS COLD FRONT OUT
OF THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THE ECMWF MOVING ITS FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY. AFTER
INGESTING THE BLENDED MODEL DATA...MADE THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS
TO THE NEW FORECAST GRIDS...ADJUSTED THE MUCH SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION
ABOUT 30 PERCENT TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PERIOD IS SET TO START OFF
DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD...AS THE ECMWF PRODUCES A STRONG LONGER LASTING
RIDGE THAT IS SLOWER TO BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST RELATIVE TO THE GFS.
THE MODIFIED BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS SEEMED REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO. ADJUSTED THE
QPF...SKY COVER AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFIED
POP FORECAST. WENT WITH GENERAL 40 TO 5O POPS DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND KEPT THOSE NUMBERS LOWER THAN THE SEEMINGLY TOO HIGH
POPS IN BOTH SETS OF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL JUST BEHIND A DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...A
GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 60
DEGREES...WITH A PEAK IN THE WARMTH TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE BOARD. ANOTHER SMALL COOL DOWN
IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEAK...AS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME VCSH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH...A
BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN
HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SHOULD END TOWARD 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE
FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED
LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO
THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE
AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE
THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED
THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING
EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE
WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS...
THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER
FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE
ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP
UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND
HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED
SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID
40S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY SHARP AND
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELL TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THE TQ INDEX...WAS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THUNDER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH
THESE SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS START TO DIFFER
SOME ON SPEED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL
MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD END BETWEEN 08 TO 10Z FROM WEST
TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND IMPROVING VIS...LIGHTER WINDS AND MVFR CIGS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOWER
CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE FROM THE WEST. VFR
CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED
LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO
THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE
AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE
THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED
THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING
EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF
THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE
WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS...
THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION
IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY
LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE
THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS
PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST
GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER
FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE
ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP
UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND
HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED
SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF
THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID
40S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY SHARP AND
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELL TO
GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THE TQ INDEX...WAS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO
SUPPORT THUNDER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH
THESE SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRY PERIOD
UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INT THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS START TO DIFFER
SOME ON SPEED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL
MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME VCSH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH...A
BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN
HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SHOULD END TOWARD 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE
FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION
PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH
SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN
AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO
9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING
OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING
FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS
(AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP
SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM
WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT
HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE
WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP
TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN
ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A
QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST.
ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH
OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST
CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME
BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD
SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY
NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
AFTER SUNSET.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH
LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN
PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER
NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD
STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS
GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E
AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH
THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF
PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE
VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN
OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL
TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT
OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS
UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS
FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS
SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND
RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY
LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE
OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE
NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF
A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN
WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND
NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT
TIME.
SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND EXPECT A MESO-LOW
TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AT KCMX DURING THE EVENING. AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND TRANSITION ALL THREE SITES TO VFR.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW
PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS
DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW
PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A
PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO
GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1206 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL BRING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HIGH
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
WINDS GUST OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE WEATHER WILL COME DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. FAIR
AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
FORECAST ISSUES ARE FOR HIGH WIND LATE TONIGHT...AND THUNDER/RAIN
THIS EVENING.
WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS COULD
MIX DOWN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 50 KNOTS OF WIND CLOSE TO OR
IN THE MIXING LAYER. THE 12Z EURO IS A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER WITH
THE SFC LOW. WENT WITH A HIGH WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME SPOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z.
BEFORE THEN...WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DRY SLOT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT STILL SEEING DRIZZLE AND SOLID CLOUD
COVER...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK NCFR COULD STILL FORM AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN AND WIND THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD JUST BE A SOGGY AND MILD TIME FOR TRICK OT TREATING. THE
SYNOPTIC WIND THREAT ARRIVES LATER.
NO REAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL BLO MINUS 6C AND
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REACH
THE 50S BEFORE COOLING TO THE 40S BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SOME IFR
WILL CONTINUE IN SPOTS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. AFTER ABOUT 09Z...THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE SWEPT TO THE
NORTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-28 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FIRING UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
KMKG AND KGRR WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO FRIDAY MORE INTO THE 10-22 KNOT
RANGE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR GALE WARNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THE GALE WARNING WILL BE
REPLACED WITH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES IN VAN BUREN COUNTY AND EXPECT
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS TONIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHARP RISES ON SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH
RISES ON MANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE MIDWEST OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS WILL KEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN WC WI THRU NOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE...A SHRTWV MOVING SE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL LIFT ACROSS WC/SW/SC MN
DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY WILL HOLD IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND KEPT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THIS
REGION. CHC POPS REMAIN REASONABLE IN THE FAR SW 1/3 OF THE CWA DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LIFT. ELSEWHERE...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS NOT LIKELY BUT AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY LATE
TONIGHT...ENDING ANY CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WON/T
CONTRIBUTE TO TOO MUCH WARMING SATURDAY...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AND STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY. IT WON/T BE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MN. MIXING SHOULD EXTEND UP TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BE +4 OR +5C BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY
LOWER 60S IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY. AFTER SOME STABILIZING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS FOLLOWING SUNSET...WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KT
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2-3KFT. THUS...30-40 MPH GUSTS COULD EXTEND
INTO THE EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TOO COOL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUCH A
WIND REGIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW OR MID 40S.
THE PLAINS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. OVERALL
NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS FIRST ROUND SO KEPT POPS LOW. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS WHAT WILL BRING
THE BIGGEST LONG TERM HEADACHE...SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ONE
ANOTHER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT KEY QUESTIONS
REMAIN. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO OR THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO. PW VALUES BETWEEN 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PUSH INTO MISSOURI AND IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 50-60 KT
UPGLIDE WINDS ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...THINK MDT-HVY
PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY ON THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED
BUT WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MAY KEEP MUCH OF IT RAIN.
RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
I CANNOT REALLY ARGUE AGAINST THIS. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA...STRONGER CAA WILL BEGIN AND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TURN
TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW MUCH PRECIP
REMAINS AFTER THIS TRANSITION IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND THE
LARGEST DRIVER OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW CURRENTLY LIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST MN
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
RESIDUAL MOISTURE BLW 2K ACROSS WC WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE OUT OF
THIS REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR
AT KEAU BY 14-16Z...THEN VFR AFT 18Z. KRNH REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...BUT
CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 12-1230Z.
UPSTREAM MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS N/NE MN SHOULD MOVE NE OF MPX TAF
SITES IN WI TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE NEXT SHRTWV
DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHERN ND WILL EXPAND AN AREA OF LOW END VFR OR
HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KAXN/KRWF BY 18Z. STILL BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE BLW 3K WILL HOLD IN EASTERN SD. LATEST RAP DOES SUPPORT
THIS AREA OF LOWER CIGS EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN AFT
18Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
ISOLD SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND NOTHING TOO HEAVY TO LOWER
VSBYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WNW/NW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S THIS AFTN.
KMSP...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE SOME CONCERNS
WITH LOWER CIGS ACROSS N/NE MN MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT
AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...THE BULK OF THIS
MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE NE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR
VFR CIGS TODAY. THE SHRTWV ACROSS ND SHOULD NOT AFFECT KMSP TAF
SITE AS IT MOVES SW OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE WNW EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE NW/NNW THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20 KT.
MON...VFR. MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA. WINDS S 15-20G30 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 813 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Grids and products have been updated to reflect the slightly
quicker exit of precipitation. After the rain ends across
southwest IL, no further precipitation is expected for the rest of
the night across the LSX CWA.
Kanofsky
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Focus for tonight will be pops as the upper trof moves thru the
area.
Upper trof just starting to enter far nwrn MO with dry slot
spreading over much of the area. Vort max rounding the base of the
trof now will help eject the trof ewd along with the precip. Have
trended pops this eve twd the 4km local WRF and the HRRR which are
in fairly good agreement along with much of the other guidance as
well. These solns suggest a line of TSRA across far ern portions of
the CWA with some stratiform precip behind that, but exiting the
area quickly. The CWA shud be dry by 03z if not before.
With clouds clearing out of the area tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance. That said, do not anticipate temps dropping too
much tonight with mixing persisting thru the night and with no
substantial cooler or drier air advecting into the region.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Period begins with focus on temps thru the weekend.
With ample clouds expected across much of the area on Fri and with
the sfc ridge building into the area on Sat, have trended twd the
cooler guidance thru the weekend. Warm up shud begin on Sun as the
sfc ridge starts to retreat and as the thermal ridge starts moving
nwd into the area.
For the extd, focus turns to pops late Mon thru Wed. Mdls have
come into better agreement with trof timing and phasing. Have
lowered pops on Mon and on Thurs with better agreement among mdls.
Increased pops between these times where mdls were in better
agreement regarding precip. Some uncertainty still remains and
will continue to adjust as needed.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the forecast
period with clear skies and patchy cu tonight, then scattered
diurnal cu and gusty west northwest surface winds on Friday.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the forecast
period with clear skies and patchy cu tonight, then scattered
diurnal cu and gusty west northwest surface winds on Friday.
Glass
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
...A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND AS WE FALL BACK TO STANDARD TIME...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON SUNDAY...
A 140KT JET OVER ALBERTA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN H5 TROF OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES AT 12Z. SHORTWAVE
TROF ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONGER WAVE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME SATURATION AROUND 750MB
AND THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING.
THE RH PROGS THROUGH TONIGHT DO BRING CONTINUED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
WITH THE H3 JET TRANSLATING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH AT A QUICK SPEED AS WELL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE
TREND IS FOR THE MOISTURE IS TO HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IS EXITING OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES. THE LATEST WSR-
88D SHOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS AND A POCKET OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 18Z AND BY 20Z THERE WAS A NICE
ARC OF SHOWERS OVER THE MIDLANDS. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BULK OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OR EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH HAVE SOME MINOR PRECIP
SWINGING THROUGH AND THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE RADAR BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO
THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT FOR NOW...WILL PLAN ON A MENTION
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND OUR NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS GOOD
LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 50S WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. H85 WINDS OF 45 TO 55KTS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30MPH SUSTAINED...THUS
HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RH IS STILL LACKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING...SO HAVE SO LOW POPS
MENTIONED.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...THE MAIN
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY ARE
IN REGARDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS THE GFS WOULD
INITIALLY TAKE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LIFT THIS BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE
SWEEPING IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN
ODDS TO THE EC AND FOR MOST PART GEM THAT FOR THE MOST PART KEEPS
THE FRONT STATIONARY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IS SWEEPS SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH OF I80 ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
POSITIVE NATURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT THIS IS OUR FAVORED SOLUTION AS WELL. THIS RESULTED IN THE
LOWERING OF HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
2/3RD OF THE FA WHERE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TMPS BELOW GOING HIGHS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE
FAR MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH JUST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER /I.E.
BOONE...ANTELOPE...KNOX COUNTIES/ WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT AND OPEN NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE ENDING OF
PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS AND
BRING THE MIX OF RA/SN A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE COOLED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW GOING MOS GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH YET. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH
INTERMITTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5-10KFT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GET JUST A LITTLE GUSTIER YET THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLACKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH
SPEEDS DECREASING BELOW 10KT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD/MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
STILL AWAITING SOME OF THE HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC FOR ANY POSSIBLE
TWEAKS IN TIMING...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MINOR...IF ANY. 12Z RAOBS FROM
CHS AND MHX STILL SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN FAIRLY
INSIGNIFICANT RADAR ECHOES UNTIL THIS EVENINGS STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES. CONCUR WITH SWODY1 THAT A SLIGHT RISK-WORTHY AREA OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC AND
SOME TIME WILL TELL WHAT PARTS OF THE CWA WILL QUALIFY. INITIAL
SUSPICION IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WIND AND TOR
PROBS LATER ON WITH COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE. ROUGHLY 40 OF THE 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION LIES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE READILY
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS. QUICK TORNADO SPINUPS ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
BOUNDARIES OR STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS. PREVIOUS FOLLOWS...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT
THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER
PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 ARE IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE MY POPS ARE 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. COMPARED TO MY THOUGHTS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...THE 06Z MODELS PLUS THE LATEST SREF SLOWS THE
WHOLE SYSTEM DOWN BY A FEW HOURS.
RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A
HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT
AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH
GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM
150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END
UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400
J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO RISK IN
THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...
COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT
THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80-82 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT
REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE
SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER
ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BE.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS
PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C
BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE
LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES
SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN
NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40
MOST PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD
START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON
THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON
WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP
BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS
BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS ON THE TIMING TODAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...PREDOMINATELY VFR. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING...LIGHT CAPE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND MODERATE BULK
SHEAR IN PLACE FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG LIFTING ALONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN OCCASIONALLY FROM 4K
FEET...WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT ILM
WHERE INSTABILITY AND/OR LIFT MAY BE GREATEST. ONLY A TWO OR THREE
HOUR WINDOW FOR THIS SCENARIO THIS EVENING...STILL UNCERTAIN AS MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND HAS NOT YET FORMED TO OUR WEST. ADDING TO TIMING
DIFFICULTY IS THE FACT THAT SQUALL LINE WILL BE DECELERATING AS IT
HEADS EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION EXPECT
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING
SATURDAY...MAINLY INLAND.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...7 FT SEAS ALREADY AT MAIN BUOYS 41013 AND
41036 IN ADDITION TO 41004 FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT CWF FCST OF 5 TO 7
FT STILL HOLDING JUST FINE AND THE TWEAKS MADE TO WAVE GRIDS WILL BE
TO BRING A LITTLE MORE OF THE 6FT SEAS INTO THE 20NM ZONES.
LLJ/925MB FLOW PROGGED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER WATER
TONIGHT INTO THE 40KT REALM. WILL EXAMINE FCST SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF
FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD INCLUDE 40KT IN GUSTS...SEEMINGLY MAINLY
HINGING UPON LAPSE RATES AND THE EXTENT OF VERTICAL MIXING. PREVIOUS
FOLLOWS...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE
WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY
RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND DECREASE LATE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT
THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT
WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE
NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE
LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE
WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING
SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
STILL AWAITING SOME OF THE HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC FOR ANY POSSIBLE
TWEAKS IN TIMING...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MINOR...IF ANY. 12Z RAOBS FROM
CHS AND MHX STILL SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN FAIRLY
INSIGNIFICANT RADAR ECHOES UNTIL THIS EVENINGS STRONG FORCING
ARRIVES. CONCUR WITH SWODY1 THAT A SLIGHT RISK-WORTHY AREA OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC AND
SOME TIME WILL TELL WHAT PARTS OF THE CWA WILL QUALIFY. INITIAL
SUSPICION IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WIND AND TOR
PROBS LATER ON WITH COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE. ROUGHLY 40 OF THE 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION LIES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE READILY
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS. QUICK TORNADO SPINUPS ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
BOUNDARIES OR STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS. PREVIOUS FOLLOWS...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT
THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER
PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 ARE IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE MY POPS ARE 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. COMPARED TO MY THOUGHTS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...THE 06Z MODELS PLUS THE LATEST SREF SLOWS THE
WHOLE SYSTEM DOWN BY A FEW HOURS.
RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A
HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT
AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH
GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM
150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END
UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400
J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO RISK IN
THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...
COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT
THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80-82 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT
REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE
SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER
ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BE.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS
PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C
BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE
LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES
SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN
NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40
MOST PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD
START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON
THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON
WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP
BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS
BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS...PREDOMINATELY VFR. JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...LIGHT CAPE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND
MODERATE BULK SHEER WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN
OCCASIONALLY FROM 4K FEET...WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE. ONLY A TWO OR THREE HOUR WINDOW FOR THIS SCENARIO THIS
EVENING. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
MORNING. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...7 FT SEAS ALREADY AT MAIN BUOYS 41013 AND
41036 IN ADDITION TO 41004 FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT CWF FCST OF 5 TO 7
FT STILL HOLDING JUST FINE AND THE TWEAKS MADE TO WAVE GRIDS WILL BE
TO BRING A LITTLE MORE OF THE 6FT SEAS INTO THE 20NM ZONES.
LLJ/925MB FLOW PROGGED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER WATER
TONIGHT INTO THE 40KT REALM. WILL EXAMINE FCST SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF
FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD INCLUDE 40KT IN GUSTS...SEEMINGLY MAINLY
HINGING UPON LAPSE RATES AND THE EXTENT OF VERTICAL MIXING. PREVIOUS
FOLLOWS...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE
WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY
RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND DECREASE LATE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT
THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT
WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE
NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE
LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE
WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING
SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT
THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER
PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 ARE IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE MY POPS ARE 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. COMPARED TO MY THOUGHTS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...THE 06Z MODELS PLUS THE LATEST SREF SLOWS THE
WHOLE SYSTEM DOWN BY A FEW HOURS.
RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A
HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT
AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH
GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM
150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END
UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400
J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO RISK IN
THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...
COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT
THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80-82 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST
OF INTERSTATE 95 AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT
REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE
SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER
ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BE.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS
PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C
BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE
LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES
SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN
NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40
MOST PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD
START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON
THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON
WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP
BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS
BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS
IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY
CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL
SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT
FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE
WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY
RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND DECREASE LATE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT
THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT
WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE
NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE
LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE
WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING
SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
433 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT
THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER
PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-90 PERCENT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS.
RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A
HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT
AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH
GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM
150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END
UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400
J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...
COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT
THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES FOR AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES
SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE
SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER
ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A
SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BE.
AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S
AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS
PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C
BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE
LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES
SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN
NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40 MOST
PLACES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD
START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON
THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO
BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON
WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP
BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS
BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS
IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY
CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL
SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT
FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE
WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY
RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND DECREASE LATE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT
THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY
AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT
WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME
OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO
25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE
NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE
LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE
WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING
SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
327 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT
THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER
PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX.
THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 95 INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-90 PERCENT.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS.
RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A
HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT
AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH
GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM
150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END
UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400
J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE CAROLINAS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS...
COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR
NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT
THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES FOR AREAS
EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE
BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES
SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE LOOKING AT
SOME DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FA. THE DRIER AIR THROUGH THE ATM
COLUMN AND THE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF AXIS AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC TROF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
ITS PASSAGE BUT TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY TO PLACE IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY WILL FINALLY
CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS BEING THE MODEL RELIED
UPON...MAX/MIN TEMPS FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WILL BE UTILIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST
OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OUT WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE DILEMMA FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM THE EAST THUS
ALLOWING MODIFICATION FROM THE GULF STREAM. THE GFS IS AND HAS BEEN
FOR THAT MATTER SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING WHAT I
BELIEVE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE...VERY LIGHT QPF WHICH IN REALITY IS
PROBABLY A STRATUS LAYER. THE GFS IS SHOWING EIGHT MICROBARS/SECOND
OF OMEGA AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL WHICH IS VERY SUSPECT. I HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH A SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WARRANTING POPS
FOR THE NEW FORECAST DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONSIST OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS
IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY
CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL
SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT
FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE
WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...
AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY
RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND DECREASE LATE.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT
THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED
SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 15-25
KT ON SATURDAY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE NNW SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG AND COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FRI
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
OFF CAPE FEAR. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO WINDS TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO BECOME TRULY OFFSHORE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
CAROLINA COASTS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS OF 5 TO 6
SECONDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
15-20 KNOTS WILL GREET MARINERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST THAN SOUTH ALLOWING A PROLONGED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING. SPEEDS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. THESE ELEMENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE
2-3 FEET MUTED BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTS...SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...TRA/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1238 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH
A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...A WELL-DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
FAYETTEVILLE THROUGH WHITEVILLE...TO SUNSET BEACH AND OVER 100 MILES
OFFSHORE HAS TAKEN ON A LIFE OF ITS OWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WILMINGTON IN ABOUT
ONE HOUR. OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...AND
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. A RECENT WIND OBSERVATION FROM SPRINGMAID PIER AT MYRTLE
BEACH SHOWED 30 MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING...THEREFORE I HAVE INCREASED
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT NEAR THE
BEACHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES/SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE EARLIER
AND FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND AT LEAST SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED THIS
EVE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45
MPH OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO REMAIN DECOUPLED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...WE DO EXPECT IT TO TURN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED SSW TO SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 MPH...HIGHEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...A
TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THU NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO CREEP HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD TEND TO BOTTOM OUT VERY LATE THIS EVE
AND THEN BEGIN TO STABILIZE IF NOT RISE A DEG OR TWO TOWARD MORNING.
THIS SHOULD PUT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY N ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME OCEAN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS
LOW LEVEL JETTING INCREASES AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SKIRT
COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN BOTH SFC AND
ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN BUT DAMPENING UPPER S/W
TROF...ITS CORRESPONDING SFC LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED
DYNAMICS...WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT
BECOMES SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM THE LOW IN CANADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO AMPLIFY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK MID-
LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS/IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH IT. THIS
SHARPENING FLOW WILL AID IN FINALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE
COAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS CFP...COMPARED
TO OTHER MODELS...WILL BE RELIED UPON THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE.
ONE OF THESE VORTS COULD PRODUCE A SFC LOW ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN
THE NEIGHBORHOOD FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY RACING OFF TO THE
NE. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER IMPULSE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP THOSE 40-50
KT LOW LEVEL JET WINDS...AND BRING THEM TO THE SFC AS STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CONVECTION THAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...MAINLY ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OPEN TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL
ONLY INDICATE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SWATH OF 2.00 INCH PWS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...HAVE
SUFFIXED THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE...AS
WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE HWO WILL CONTAIN THE
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
AFTER THE CFP SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME DRYING TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE FA. THE DRIER AIR THRU THE ATM COLUMN AND THE
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
TROF OR SECONDARY CFP. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
ITS PASSAGE BUT TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY TO PLACE IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY WILL FINALLY
CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS BEING THE MODEL RELIED
UPON...MAX/MIN TEMPS FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WILL BE UTILIZED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST
OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OUT WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.
THE DILEMMA FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM THE EAST THUS
ALLOWING MODIFICATION FROM THE GULF STREAM. THE GFS IS AND HAS BEEN
FOR THAT MATTER SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING WHAT I
BELIEVE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE...VERY LIGHT QPF WHICH IN REALITY IS
PROBABLY A STRATUS LAYER. THE GFS IS SHOWING EIGHT MICROBARS/SECOND
OF OMEGA AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL WHICH IS VERY SUSPECT. I HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH A SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WARRANTING POPS
FOR THE NEW FORECAST DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONSIST OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS
IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY
CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL
SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT
FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION
TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS FROM SPRINGMAID PIER AT
MYRTLE BEACH (GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS) I HAVE INCREASED FORECAST
NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS TO MATCH OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE TAKEN ON A
LIFE OF ITS OWN...AND SHOULD APPROACH CAPE FEAR IN THE NEXT
HOUR...LATER AFFECTING THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS BETWEEN 2-4 AM. SEAS ARE BUILDING DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS
AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
LOW-LEVEL JETTING INCREASES UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX
MOST EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS AND
BEYOND WHERE WATER TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED BELOW 70 DEGREES.
HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL FORECASTING SUSTAINED SSW TO SW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT OVERNIGHT AND THEN FURTHER ON FRI. THE
WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A SW WIND 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SFC PRESSURE
PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT WITH WINDS BACKING TO S OR SSW
JUST PRIOR TO THE CFP. WINDS MAY BACK TO S-SSW JUST AHEAD OF THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS POSSIBLY
DUE TO A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE THAT AIDS IN A SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE CFP. AFTER FROPA...WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE W TO NW AT 15-25 KT ON SATURDAY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE NNW
SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE
AT 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AS WINDS BECOME
OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS FROM CAPE
FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO
SUBSIDE DUE TO WINDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO BECOME TRULY OFFSHORE
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES
WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS OF 5 TO 6 SECONDS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
15-20 KNOTS WILL GREET MARINERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST THAN SOUTH ALLOWING A PROLONGED
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING. SPEEDS DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. THESE ELEMENTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE
2-3 FEET MUTED BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW
PERSISTS...SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX
FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
208 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPDATE MAINLY TO REDUCE POPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER LACK OF MUCH
RAINFALL ATTM GIVEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL SEEN ON AREA RAOBS
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE WEST HEADS
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGIN TO FILL IN SHOWERS AT LEAST OVER THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENTIAL LOW TOPPED LINE LATE THAT
IS CURRENTLY WELL OFF TO THE WEST ATTM. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PUSH TO ANY STRONGER LOW TOPPED SHOWER
BAND(S) WITH BOTH THE LOCAL RNK- WRF AND HRRR NOT CROSSING THE
WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ALSO PULLED
BACK HIGHER POPS WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CUT BACK SOME OUT
EAST WHERE COULD BE EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE RESIDUAL LINE MAKES
IT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE.
OTRW WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITHIN ANY DEEPER SHOWERS THE MAIN
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH EVENING RAOBS ALREADY SHOWING 50+ KTS
AROUND 85H. HAVE TOYED WITH UPGRADING THE BLF/TAZEWELL REGION
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER
SPEEDS WHEN THE FLOW IS TURNING MORE SW DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
RAMPING UP THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. HOWEVER DOES APPEAR THAT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THE BETTER JET WILL END UP EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE ALSO BOOSTED SPEEDS EAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY.
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOUT STEADY UNDER CLOUDS AND INCREASED MIXING
SO KEPT THE FAR SE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH 55-62 ELSW.
PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT THE
STRONG LOW LVL JET OF 45-65 KNOTS ACROSS MS/WRN TN/WRN KY TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE COMING THROUGH ALONG A LINE OF SHOWERS. THE
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS RIDGES ABOVE 3000 FEET
WILL MEET WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING
ADVISORY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ENHANCED GUSTS WITH ANY BOWING
POTENTIAL FROM THE SHOWERS. MODEL HELICITIES INDICATE 300-400 M2/S2
ARRIVING THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IN THE 0-1KM RANGE. NOT THAT CONCERNED
WITH SPINUPS AND TIMING SUGGEST LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY.
AM MAKING A FORECAST BASED ON NAM/ECMWF BLEND. THESE MODELS SHOWING
THE FRONT ENTERING THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWING UP AS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM NRN GA INTO THE VA PIEDMONT THROUGH FRI
AFTN. THIS SHOULD HOLD PRECIP IN LONGER OUT EAST AND MODELS INDICATE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SO LEFT THUNDER IN THE EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS.
NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH THUNDER IN THE MTNS TONIGHT.
SO LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS WEST BY MIDNIGHT HEADING EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAWN...THEN DRYING WORKING INTO THE MTNS AFTER 12Z-
15Z...BUT KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE TO CAT POPS ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL
MID AFTERNOON.
FOR TEMPS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD TONIGHT WITH MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S
EAST...AND TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPS ALOFT BUT MAINLY A DEWPOINT FRONT....SO WITH SHOWERS AROUND
ESPECIALLY EAST WENT CLOSE TO MET/LOCAL MOS IN THE EAST AND LOCAL
MOS WEST...WHICH COMES OUT TO LOWER 70S EAST TO MID TO UPPER 60S
WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH
ANY LEFT-OVER SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK
ONE OR MORE WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY SERVE TO
HOLD CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC OF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT. COLD AIR PUSH UNIMPRESSIVE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH H85 TEMPS ROUGHLY 3-5C BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN DURING THE DAY FINALLY REACHING 0C IN THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REBOUND TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM
MID-50S NW TO M/U 60S FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINS
TO GENERATE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WEST. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
QPF AND A DUSTING OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
CAN`T RULE OUR A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
SATURDAY EVENING PER LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD
GO AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES CLEARING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING THERE TOO.
SUNDAY LOOKS COOL BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD...TEMPS IN
THE 40S/50S...AND FALLING SHY OF NORMALS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR
FROSTY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH TMINS IN THE
20S/30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD MONDAY...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING. AFTER
THAT...THICKNESSES RISE PER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY...
COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES EAST INTO THE
APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE
REACHING THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. VWP SHOWED A LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWED A 50-60 KNOT JET AT 3000FT AGL JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND
OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL REACH KBLF AND
KLWB AROUND 09Z/5AM AND PUSH EAST TO KLYH AND KDAN BY 15Z/10AM.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT.
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH
THE WIND FORECAST AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THEN REDEVELOP
FARTHER EAST...POSSIBLE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN.
EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AS DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING WIND MOVES INTO THE AREA.
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN AT KLWB AND
KBLF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH SCATTERED UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVERHEAD BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
022>024-032>035.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001>003-018-
019.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...PC/PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.UPDATE...
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING AND ELONGATED SHEARED
VORTICITY AXIS IS WORKING TO ERODE THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE CLOUDS ARE LINED UP ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
CLEARING HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...AROUND
SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTY. MEANWHILE THE MORE DOMINANT
CLEARING IS OCCURRING FROM MADISON ON WEST. RADAR DOES SUGGEST
THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT THIS IS
DECREASING WITH TIME.
THE CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL
FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND SHEBOYGAN.
I MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE FOG AS THE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GETTING
PRETTY SMALL AND WE DON/T SEE ANY MIXY WINDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSE TO
12Z SUN. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WON/T LAST MUCH PAST SUNRISE AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT/WIND WILL BE INCREASING QUICKLY BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ERODE THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MOST OF
THE CIGS ARE VFR...BUT THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS WHERE CIGS ARE
DROPPING TO JUST BELOW MVFR LEVELS. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS CONCERN THAT WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE CLEARING...
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GETTING NARROW AND COMBINED WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 12Z
SUN...SO ANY FOG WON/T LAST MUCH PAST SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS MARGINAL
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW INCREASES
ABOVE A DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THE 500MB TROUGH CAUSING THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF WI
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE
OUT THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS
THROUGH...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF MADISON. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE COLD AIR TROUGH ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL
AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
HANG ON AFTER 7 PM...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET SO LEFT THE EVENING WEATHER DRY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN. 925MB TEMPS OF 0C TO 2C TONIGHT AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS AROUND
30...COOLEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING IN THE FAVORABLE
LOW SPOTS AS WELL.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS WI ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS LONGER. WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT AND MON DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON
MON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS POSSIBLY
LEADING TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL STALL OVER SRN
WI MON NT AND TUE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NWD FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO WRN WI BY LATE TUE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING THE ROCKIES. LOW POPS TO
CONTINUE MON NT INTO TUE AM DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES TO THEN INCREASE TUE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MILD GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N-S TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AND
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WI LATE TUE NT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PWS OVER ONE INCH AND GOOD LIFT WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NT WITH NWLY WINDS AND COLD...DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASING.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE
TROUGHS/RIDGES. A WEAK SLY SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN WI EXCEPT IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD
MORNING...EXPECT MVFR FOG IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS.
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
EVENING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SUN EVE THROUGH TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
3 PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVING EAST. SHOWERS WERE OCCURING
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN WISCONSIN
STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ADVANCE EAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AS THE WESTERN
WAVE MOVES INTO IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PASSES
ACROSS THESE AREAS SO THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REGION. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
QUIET CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
CONTROL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA AND
SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS
MIXED WE COULD SEE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING 40 MPH. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB. 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S. THE TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
AS THE MEAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
RELATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL IMPACTING AVIATION.
FIRST AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCKED UPSTREAM. CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
IOWA A NICE BREAK ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LIKELY TO BRING CEILINGS BACK INTO THE
AREA BY EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN VFR RANGE THOUGH SO
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS MORE CEILINGS AND
LIGHT FOG BUT TREND TOWARDS MIDDAY SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER STEP
IN THE IMPROVEMENT DIRECTION AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE TROUGHING
ENCOMPASSED AN AREA FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT
STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STRATUS WAS EVIDENT IN
00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. OTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ALSO MOVING THROUGH AND
TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS PRODUCED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING COMING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS BRINGING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE.
REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION...AT MPX...925MB AND
850MB TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT 4C BETWEEN 12Z YESTERDAY AND 00Z...WITH
READINGS OF 2C AND -1C RESPECTIVELY. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 0.5
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL
START TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. GETS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOCUS FOR
THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONE APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS
TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE COULD
IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CURRENT
STRATUS DECK AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. WEAK TROUGHS AS WELL AS
TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THUS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
UNTIL THE DECK CLEARS. REGARDING CLEARING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20
KT BELOW 800MB WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. RAP/NAM 950-900MB RH PROGS SUGGEST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WOULD BE MORE OF THE
ALTOSTRATUS VARIETY AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR PRECIP.
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
2-5C...CLOUDS...PRECIP AND WIND. COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH OCCURS DURING THE WEEKEND.
BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...THE WESTERN U.S. GOES FROM
RIDGING TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS
TO RISE DRAMATICALLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN U.S....INCLUDING
THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN
TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THIS EJECTION TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW THE WEATHER
PANS OUT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...ONE MORE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 2C. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS REALLY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. 925MB SPEEDS ARE PROGGED AT 25-40 KT BY 00Z MONDAY...
STRONGEST OUT WEST. THESE WINDS HELP TO BRING THE 925MB TEMPS UP TO
3-5C...AND WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.
AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.5 INCH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE TUESDAY PER THE 01.00Z GFS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS
ALSO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE 01.00Z CANADIAN ALREADY DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL MODELS SHOW...THOUGH IT IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THEN ON MONDAY...THE 01.00Z ECMWF BECOMES
THE ONLY MODEL TO OVERSPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF...SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
REQUIRED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE RAISED CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH FURTHER
INCREASES LIKELY NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SUGGESTED THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY TO DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH...
AIDED TOO BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS
COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO OCCUR WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
AS THE MEAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
RELATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL IMPACTING AVIATION.
FIRST AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI
RIVER TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LOCKED UPSTREAM. CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND
IOWA A NICE BREAK ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LIKELY TO BRING CEILINGS BACK INTO THE
AREA BY EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN VFR RANGE THOUGH SO
OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS MORE CEILINGS AND
LIGHT FOG BUT TREND TOWARDS MIDDAY SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER STEP
IN THE IMPROVEMENT DIRECTION AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
646 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE TROUGHING
ENCOMPASSED AN AREA FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT
STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STRATUS WAS EVIDENT IN
00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. OTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ALSO MOVING THROUGH AND
TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS PRODUCED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING COMING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS BRINGING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE.
REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION...AT MPX...925MB AND
850MB TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT 4C BETWEEN 12Z YESTERDAY AND 00Z...WITH
READINGS OF 2C AND -1C RESPECTIVELY. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 0.5
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL
START TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. GETS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOCUS FOR
THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONE APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS
TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE COULD
IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CURRENT
STRATUS DECK AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. WEAK TROUGHS AS WELL AS
TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THUS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
UNTIL THE DECK CLEARS. REGARDING CLEARING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20
KT BELOW 800MB WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. RAP/NAM 950-900MB RH PROGS SUGGEST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WOULD BE MORE OF THE
ALTOSTRATUS VARIETY AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR PRECIP.
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
2-5C...CLOUDS...PRECIP AND WIND. COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH OCCURS DURING THE WEEKEND.
BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...THE WESTERN U.S. GOES FROM
RIDGING TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS
TO RISE DRAMATICALLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN U.S....INCLUDING
THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN
TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THIS EJECTION TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW THE WEATHER
PANS OUT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...ONE MORE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 2C. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS REALLY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. 925MB SPEEDS ARE PROGGED AT 25-40 KT BY 00Z MONDAY...
STRONGEST OUT WEST. THESE WINDS HELP TO BRING THE 925MB TEMPS UP TO
3-5C...AND WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.
AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.5 INCH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE TUESDAY PER THE 01.00Z GFS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS
ALSO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE 01.00Z CANADIAN ALREADY DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL MODELS SHOW...THOUGH IT IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THEN ON MONDAY...THE 01.00Z ECMWF BECOMES
THE ONLY MODEL TO OVERSPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF...SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
REQUIRED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE RAISED CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH FURTHER
INCREASES LIKELY NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SUGGESTED THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY TO DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH...
AIDED TOO BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS
COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO OCCUR WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO
ROTATES OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED
DURING EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...
DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH CIGS RISING
TO VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. COMBINED WITH SOME DIURNAL WARMING...WIDELY SCT -SHRA
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO START DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AND
FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE TROUGHING
ENCOMPASSED AN AREA FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE
ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT
STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STRATUS WAS EVIDENT IN
00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. OTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ALSO MOVING THROUGH AND
TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS PRODUCED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK UPSTREAM OVER
THE DAKOTAS WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING COMING INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS BRINGING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE.
REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION...AT MPX...925MB AND
850MB TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT 4C BETWEEN 12Z YESTERDAY AND 00Z...WITH
READINGS OF 2C AND -1C RESPECTIVELY. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 0.5
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL
START TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE U.S. GETS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOCUS FOR
THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONE APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS
TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE COULD
IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CURRENT
STRATUS DECK AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. WEAK TROUGHS AS WELL AS
TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THUS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
UNTIL THE DECK CLEARS. REGARDING CLEARING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20
KT BELOW 800MB WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. RAP/NAM 950-900MB RH PROGS SUGGEST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE
STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WOULD BE MORE OF THE
ALTOSTRATUS VARIETY AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR PRECIP.
EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO
2-5C...CLOUDS...PRECIP AND WIND. COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH OCCURS DURING THE WEEKEND.
BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...THE WESTERN U.S. GOES FROM
RIDGING TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS
TO RISE DRAMATICALLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN U.S....INCLUDING
THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN
TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND THIS EJECTION TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW THE WEATHER
PANS OUT.
FOR THE WEEKEND...ONE MORE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS
ARE HELD DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 2C. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF
TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS REALLY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. 925MB SPEEDS ARE PROGGED AT 25-40 KT BY 00Z MONDAY...
STRONGEST OUT WEST. THESE WINDS HELP TO BRING THE 925MB TEMPS UP TO
3-5C...AND WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA.
AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY EJECTING WESTERN
TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.5 INCH SUNDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE TUESDAY PER THE 01.00Z GFS. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS
ALSO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE 01.00Z CANADIAN ALREADY DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL MODELS SHOW...THOUGH IT IS
THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THEN ON MONDAY...THE 01.00Z ECMWF BECOMES
THE ONLY MODEL TO OVERSPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN GOOD
CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF...SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
REQUIRED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE RAISED CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH FURTHER
INCREASES LIKELY NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
SUGGESTED THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT POTENT
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY TO DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH...
AIDED TOO BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS
COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD
AIR FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MUCH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO OCCUR WHEN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS - GENERALLY
HOVERING NEAR 1 KFT - AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
NOT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTIONS VIA LATEST SFC OBS...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF
-DZ/-SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST WI. DON/T EXPECT FOG TO THICKEN
TONIGHT...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS STAY FAIRLY STIRRED OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND COULD GET A
BUMP INTO VFR BY 18Z. WILL PLAY THIS MORE PESSIMISTICALLY...WAITING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FALL/WINTER CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR
HANGING ONTO LOW CIGS LONGER THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A SFC TROUGH HAVE SPARKED -DZ/-SHRA
FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. RAP13/HRRR/NAM12 FAVOR THE BETTER
CHANCES ALONG I-94 NORTH/EAST...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
PCPN COULD REACH KRST/KLSE. WILL ADD -DZ FOR A FEW HOURS TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CONSOLIDATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WITH ONE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MERGE INTO A SPRAWLING
AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL COVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
THIS COINCIDES WITH A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN DURING SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY...BEFORE THIS RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD ATOP
THE AREA MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH IS A
TUTT LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THAT MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO
TRAIL TO THE EAST AND SE OF THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY-WINDY ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING
WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSED...EVENTUALLY THERE IS AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG NE AND
EAST FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL MCINTOSH AND
COASTAL LIBERTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO ALL OF COASTAL SE GA
AND MAYBE INTO THE SHORELINE AREAS OF SOUTHERN SC ON TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE
WINDS RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AS A STRONG PINCH-FEST DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS THEY CLIMB
UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INLAND WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH.
THE COOL ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MAX TEMPS TO
CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S MOST PLACES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A GREATER
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE DAYS IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES LOWER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST...SO FINE-TUNING MAY BE IN
ORDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WILL EXIST BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
FROM INLAND TO THE COAST...WITH AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE SPREAD FROM
PLACES ALONG THE COLDER NW TIER TO THE MILDER BARRIER ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL
TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...YET STILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS THE
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY...AS A WARM
FRONT FEATURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE
THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH
POPS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD LOSE STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING ITS
PROGRESSION. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BEFORE
A COOLING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-END CHANCE OF PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A
NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FROPA GIVEN THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE LIKELY...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. WE
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS PORTRAYED BY MODELS SUCH AS LOCAL WRF DATA AND
THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG OF SURGE RELATED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS.
SUNDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1029 MB HIGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS CONSOLIDATING
CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EARLY DAY COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN NORTH AND NE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP
NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT WE/LL
NEED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAG FOR AMZ374...BUT GIVEN
THAT THE FREQUENCY OF ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IS LIMITED WE HAVE
REFRAINED AT THIS STAGE FROM DOING SO. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 5 FT OR
LESS...ALTHOUGH A FEW 6-FOOTERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME EAST
PORTION OUTER GA WATERS LATE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A NASTY MARINE EVENT WILL UNFOLD FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE TIME...WITH SOLID SMALL ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO OCCUR...WITH EVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT THAT GALES
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. A HUMONGOUS AND INTENSIFYING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXPAND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOWER
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A LARGE
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WITH TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS WILL PREVAIL.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ARE GREATER
THANH 30 OR 35 KT...WITH EVEN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OF 40 OR EVEN 45 KT
TO OCCUR. SOUNDING PROFILES REVEAL A SOLID 25-30 KT WITHIN THE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH EVEN A FEW LAYERS OVER 30 KT MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE FEEL HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT SCA/S WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC
AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ON MONDAY...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
GALES COULD BE HOISTED AT A LATER TIME. SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD
WITH THE FAVORABLE AND LONG DURATION AND LONG-TRAVELED NE TO EAST
FETCH...AND WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 10 OR 11 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE OR STRONG ONSHORE IS IN THE OFFING
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SOLID 3-4 MILLIBAR SPREAD WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN
MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON SUNDAY
AND THE UPCOMING PERIGEE ON WEDNESDAY. SO IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO
MUCH OF A POSITIVE DEPARTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THERE IS EVEN THE RISK OF MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING AND GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS THERE WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE AREAS OF BEACH EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD AS
HIGH AS 6-9 FEET AND WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW ONSHORE BREAKERS IN THE
SURF ZONE COULD ATTAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER WATCH ON POSSIBLE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS
NAVIGATING IN AND OUT OF HARBORS AND PORTS.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER. LONGWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND WARMER
850 MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS SOLUTION WITH
ONLY 6-12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. IF THE FIRST SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND MAYBE SOME NORTH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF A
CHANGE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. DUE TO AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE
MODELS AND MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE ALLBLEND GRIDS FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST WEST OF KGLD TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD CO/KS BORDER BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR SO AT
KGLD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS AT KMCK. BY 00Z SFC
TROUGH RETREATS WEST ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO BECOME
VRB06KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST/WEST AROUND 11KTS WHILE AT KMCK THEY REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE
TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD
SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT
IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV
Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE
PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE
SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.
IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT
THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST
CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS
TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN
EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY
JUST WEST OF KGLD TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD CO/KS BORDER BY
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR SO AT
KGLD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS AT KMCK. BY 00Z SFC
TROUGH RETREATS WEST ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO BECOME
VRB06KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST/WEST AROUND 11KTS WHILE AT KMCK THEY REMAIN
LIGHT/VARIABLE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH
SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN
AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO
9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING
OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING
FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS
(AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP
SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM
WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT
HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE
WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP
TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN
ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A
QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST.
ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH
OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST
CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME
BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD
SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY
NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
AFTER SUNSET.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH
LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN
PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER
NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD
STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS
GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E
AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH
THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF
PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE
VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN
OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL
TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT
OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS
UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS
FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS
SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND
RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY
LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE
OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE
NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF
A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN
WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND
NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT
TIME.
SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT IWD AND
CMX THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AT SAW. SOME MVFR CLOUDS
MAY PERSIST AT SAW UNTIL LATE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW
PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS
DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW
PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A
PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO
GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...07
MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
EXPECT SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN ERN ND AND RRV AND SPREAD
INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA BY 16Z. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT
TIMES...ESP IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH OTHER SITES 25-30KTS.
DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY AFTN
IN DVL BASIN AND TOWARD EVENING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ029>031-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
328 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF KM
LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH AT
LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KPIR AND
KMBG...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KABR AND
KATY WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT KABR AND KATY WITH A STRONG
40 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...BUT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. ONCE HEATING/MIXING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND PICK UP A GUST
CHARACTER...THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL ABATE.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE.
WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SE LATER TODAY BRINGING BACK
A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. TX TECH WRF AND HRRR MODELS
EVEN DEPICTING SOME POPCORN SHRA AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA &
OFFSHORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME
LOW POPS THERE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT
ZONE NEAR THE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHER PW`S AND IMPULSES
APPROACHING IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...ANTICIPATE SCT POPS AREAWIDE
MON AFTN INTO MIDWEEK. STILL APPEARS BEST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WED AS PREFRONTAL TROF & COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END WED NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY SEASONABLE DAYS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. 47
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE E/NE LATER TODAY
WE SHOULD SEE THE GRADUAL RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SELY WINDS MON/TUES. LEVELS COULD APP-
ROACH CAUTION LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDS. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY AND/OR CAUTION FLAGS
WEDS NIGHT/THURS. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF ISSUES
WITH LOWER (MVFR) CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY MON MORNING HOURS...ESP-
ECIALLY FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST (LBX). 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 54 70 63 76 / 10 10 40 40 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 55 74 66 78 / 10 20 40 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 64 76 71 79 / 10 20 40 20 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING
MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS
OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS
POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4
INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO
CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB
WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35
KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z.
THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW
INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE
HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE
SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH
BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW
MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM
COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE
03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...
GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...
GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME
OF THOSE WINDS.
PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING
WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES...
THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...
THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD
DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER
SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES
DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE
SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN
EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH
SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING
IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE
RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING LOW. GUST APPROACHING 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED
AT KRST SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG...WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SUSTAINED LIKELY HOVERS NEAR 20 KTS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY. WITH 925 MB WINDS PROGGED
TO REACH 50 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT...LLWS WILL BE A FACTOR AT BOTH KRST
AND KLSE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LLWS WOULD OCCUR FROM 03-18Z
MONDAY. WILL ADD TO FORECAST.
AS FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...WHICH COULD IMPACT KLSE. GOING FOR IT IS THE DECOUPLED
WINDS WITH GOOD DEPTH TO THE LIGHT WIND LAYER THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAP/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NEAR
SFC INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THAT TIME...NOT SURE THIS
WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT A FOG RISK. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THESE ARE PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH...THIN
CLOUDS WOULD BE A DAMPER ON FOG POTENTIAL. SEE A THREAT...BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST...YET. THE
SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL LEAVE BCFG FOR NOW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1002 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY T/TD
AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/SAT/MOD DATA AND TRENDS.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND EXTENDED HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED IN SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HRRR STILL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON SO KEPT
THIS MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM W TO E BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH PRES SYSTEM BUILDING IN
FROM THE W. WHAT WILL BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IS A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND
LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-8C. INLAND...WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS SHOULD
TAKE PLACE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH INLAND LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE MORE THAN THE
COAST. LOWS OF 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...AND NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S IN MOST OF NYC.
IT WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE AND TEMPS
SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE FREEZING MARK BY LATE EVE. A FREEZE
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR URBAN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET ENDED. FROST IS UNLIKELY DUE TO WINDS
AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS.
SUNNY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ON MON AS THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE A GRADUALLY
LIFTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO
THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE
WITH A WARMING TREND OVERALL TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS MOVING
TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER DRY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN THEREAFTER FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING
OUT TOWARDS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AN OSCILLATING TREND TO
ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHETHER OR NOT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS WILL DETERMINE THE LONGEVITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
LINGERING PRECIP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES GOING INTO
FRIDAY. A SCENARIO WITH LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENABLE
FASTER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH PATCHY HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS 2-3 KFT ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH BKN 4-6
KFT CLOUDS SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR TONIGHT.
GUSTY N WINDS AT AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
STRONGEST GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KTS. GUSTS MAY BE LOST AT
TIMES IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITING MIXING.
GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU...
.MON THROUGH WED...PATCHY MORNING FOG TUE AND WED...OTHERWISE VFR.
.THU...LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST. FOR ALL
WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON TO
15 TO 20 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE HIGH
BUILDS.
BY MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTH...AND NORTH
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS THEY LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY...STILL EXPECT SEAS AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE EASTERN WATERS.
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR
THESE EASTERN WATERS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH BY MID WEEK.
SPEEDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALL
WATERS THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
AS FOR OCEAN SEA FORECASTS...USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH LATEST WAVE WATCH III DATA. SEAS BASED ON LOCAL WIND
DIRECTION/SPEED CLIMATOLOGY WAS USED FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG
ISLAND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY N
WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SOME THIS AFTN BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THIS EVE.
ADDITIONALLY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN JUST
ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTN. SINCE GUSTY N WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
THIS AFTN...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WED. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE THU NIGHT. GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF PRECIP SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR CSTL FLOODING BENCHMARKS DURING
THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AT LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING BENCHMARKS...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE NE ON MON THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WILL CONTINUE.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE MORNING TIDE CYCLE IS THE HIGHER OF THE
TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY
BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER
RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO
ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM.
DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE
INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO
DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE
WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE
INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ009>011.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ071-078>081.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ074-177-179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
843 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...RELATIVE DRY SLOT BEHIND MAIN SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED
ACROSS EAST IDAHO AS ADVERTISED PER WV IMAGERY. SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL WORKING THROUGH OREGON THIS
MORNING...AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING IN WESTERN IDAHO PER RADAR IMAGERY/SFC
OBS...WITH TRAJECTORY TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...BREAK IN CLOUDS WORKING
THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SOME MIXING FOR WINDS TO REGENERATE IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. RECENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES WINDS LIKELY TO REACH BOTTOM END OF ADVISORY SO WILL
KEEP HEADLINE GOING AS PLANNED. CLOUD COVER WORKING SOUTHEAST WILL
SHUT THIS OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON SO CURRENT 2PM EXPIRATION LIKELY
STILL GOOD. OTHERWISE WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO REGNERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION BY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS WEAK CONVECTION FIRING
SHORTLY AFTER NOON WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POP/WX/SKY TO MEET THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS PROMISED...WE ARE SEEING
THE COLD FRONT AND INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHIFTING TO AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS THIS MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. SOME AREAS ARE
SEEING GUSTS ALREADY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING...THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE SHIFTS INTO THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE SNOW MAY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN THIS BAND. IN ITS WAKE...CLEAR SKIES
WILL PREVAIL UNTIL WE GET INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WE GET SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND THE UPPER LEVEL PART OF THIS STORM
MOVES CLOSER. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS AFTER 5AM WILL RANGE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND/OR WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORM. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN END OF THE MAGIC VALLEY.
A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THAT UNTIL 5PM AS THE WINDS MAY
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY AROUND AMERICAN FALLS...POCATELLO
AND BLACKFOOT. THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO CREATE SOME
POCKETS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT NOT ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT FOR
AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. EVERYONE ELSE WILL STAY IN THE 20S
AND 30S IT APPEARS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGHER CHANCE OVERALL. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR IMPACTS RELATED TO
BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AGAIN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY LAYING DOWN AN INCH OR TWO OF
NEW SNOW. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER...LOWER VALLEYS HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S. THAT MEANS TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S AND 20S
WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS...AND MUCH COLDER AGAIN
FOR TUESDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES.
THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SURE ON HOW QUICKLY TO BRING THE NEXT
SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY.
THE 0Z NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRIER WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING SNOW TO
THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE OTHER
MODELS LIKE THE SREF AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
FOR NOW...WE ARE GOING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A
DRY SNAKE PLAIN. MOST AREAS WILL WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER
MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
THOUGH. KEYES
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
SOUTHEAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN
AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED OVER
REMAINING AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. IT DOES
NOT TAKE LONG FOR MODEL DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARDS A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING...THERE ARE TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE CROSSING
VANCOUVER ISLAND...THE OTHER A CUT OFF CIRCULATION ABOUT 35N 135W.
THE FIRST ONE IS THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE SECOND IS PROBABLY NOT A FACTOR FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST CONSISTENCY FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
IS DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND ALMOST LIMITS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE
IDAHO PANHANDLE AREA. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE
ECMWF...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MODEL APPEARS TO WARM TEMPERATURES A
BIT AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...QUICK MOVING AND PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF SNOW WITH IT.
MODEL CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS DEVELOPING A NEW TROUGH AND MOVING
IT INLAND ABOUT NEXT SUNDAY. RS
AVIATION...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
40S EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH...AND KIDA UNTIL 21Z. BY THEN THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF WYOMING AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN AND WINDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
THROUGH SUNSET. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT NOT DIRECTLY AT TAF SITES. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. RS
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017-021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MAIN PUSH OF WIND SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CROSS VALLEY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM GETTING AS STRONG AS THEY
COULD. ADVISORY AREA LOOKS FINE FOR NOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WINDS AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
LOOK FINE ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WINDS WITH KFAR AND GETTING TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ027-030-039-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-013>015-
022-027-029>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO CRITERIA
FOR FAR...AND CKN ALTHOUGH FOR SOME REASON GFK IS BORDERLINE. WITH
925 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING THINK THAT
MORE OF THE VALLEY COULD REACH CRITERIA SO EXPANDED NORTHWARD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE WINDS WITH KFAR AND GETTING TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ027-030-039-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001>003-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL CANT
RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT
TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS. THIS MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT ALL
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
LOCALLY...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND
AND AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP
OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING.
WILL TRIM BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING.
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM
THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO
60 MOST PLACES.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
MOST PLACES WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN
LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST
WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE
50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER
AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
AIR RIDGING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE MVFR
CIGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR AS MORNING APPROACHED. EXPECT
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING. LIKELY
KEEP/DEVELOP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL
CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
611 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
LOCALLY..OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND
AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING.
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM
THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO
60 MOST PLACES.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
MOST PLACES WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN
LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST
WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE
50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER
AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
AIR RIDGING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE MVFR
CIGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR AS MORNING APPROACHED. EXPECT
SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL
COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING. LIKELY
KEEP/DEVELOP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL
CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/...
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW
THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
LOCALLY..OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF
OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND
AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM
BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING.
AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND
CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD
BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM
THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING
SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO
60 MOST PLACES.
AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH
FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY
MOST PLACES WED NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN
LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST
WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF
LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE
50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER
AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TO START WITH IFR CIGS AT
KMFD LIKELY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OF THE VERY MOIST AIR. FLOW FROM
THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
UPPER AIR RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MVFR TO BREAK
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO START WITH CIGS BREAKING AND LIFTING THROUGH
THE MORNING TO VFR. LIKELY KEEP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
HEATING WILL CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN
ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES
NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF
KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO
40 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND
EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND
KATY. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING
MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS
OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS
POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4
INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO
CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB
WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35
KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z.
THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW
INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE
HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE
SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH
BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW
MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM
COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE
03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...
GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...
GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME
OF THOSE WINDS.
PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING
WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES...
THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...
THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD
DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER
SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES
DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE
SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN
EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH
SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING
IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE
RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
AREA AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO
MN. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25KTS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT INTO MON. GUST APPROACHING 35
KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KRST SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DECREASE BUT
GUSTINESS CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH 925 MB WINDS SOUTH AT 50 KTS
TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT KRST AND KLSE TONIGHT AS
A HEADS-UP TO BOTH INCOMING AND DEPARTING FLIGHTS.
LOOKING OFF THE BLUFF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOWER
STRATUS DECK MOVING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ADDED A SCT005 CLOUD
LAYER TO KLSE TAF THRU 15Z. GIVEN THE INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS...
REMOVED THE BCFG MENTION FROM KLSE. AFTER THAT...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
TO BE GOOD VFR TODAY/TONIGHT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION SEEN
WITH THESE. OLD FORECAST FAVORED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THIS
LOOKS RIGHT BUT I DID RAISE THE POPS AS THE COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER THAT MAKES IT ONTO THE
PLAINS...ADDED SOME LOW POPS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A QUICK POP OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY DIRECTION
OVER WYOMING WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MORE NORTHERN DIRECTION ON OUR
PLAINS...LEAVING THE DENVER AREA IN A MESS. SUSPECT THE CURRENT
ANTICYCLONE WILL GET WIPED OUT BY A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS THAT
SWING AROUND TO EAST AGAIN PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT IT COULD JUST BE
STRENGTHENED AS NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND CHEYENNE STILL WRAP AROUND
AND BECOME E OR NE INTO DENVER. IN ANY EVENT THE WINDS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...I BLENDED IN THE LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS A BIT STRONGER. GUIDANCE WAS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH LOOKS CORRECT GIVEN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND
30S UPSTREAM.
FOR MONDAY THE IMPORTANT WORD IS DRY. THE INCOMING AIR IS PRETTY
DRY...AND LIFT IS INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ONLY SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL
ALSO BE RECYCLING DRY AIR TO BEGIN WITH. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS AGAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INCREASING WITH TIME...BUT ALL
THIS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SLOW TO DEVELOP. I KEPT SOME LOW POPS
UP AROUND FORT COLLINS IN CASE THE JET IS SAGGING SOUTH QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO GET THEM IN A BAND...BUT DROPPED THE REST OF THE POPS ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...COMPONENTS WILL COME TOGETHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
UPWARD QG LIFT WILL INCREASING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST TUESDAY. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE DECREASED QPF AMOUNTS
AND SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL. HAVE REFLECTED THESE TRENDS IN
THE GRIDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BARELY LOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY MORE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE INTO THE EVENING TO LOWER TO THE PLAINS...SO
EXPECT A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...EXPECT UP
TO 2 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE METRO AREAS WITH UP TO 4 OVER THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE FOUND. A SURFACE
INVERTED TROUGH IS STILL BEING PROGGED BY THE MODELS...WHICH NEVER
BODES WELL FOR THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS. THE WILD CARD HOWEVER
IS WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BANDING WHICH COULD
PUT DOWN MUCH MORE AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ENERGY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY TO
BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MORE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING THIS EVENING AND MAY DISRUPT THE CURRENT WIND
PATTERN...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST REINFORCE THE EXISTING EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING
WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DENVER CYCLONE CAUSING LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD LOWER ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL EVENING.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
ACTIVE FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS NRN UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
INTO NE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRAGGING OVER NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST UTAH CORNER...ANY PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW...BUT
POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS) WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FRONT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AFTER THE
PASSAGE. USED THE TRENDS OFFERED IN THE RAP MODEL TO POPULATE THE
GRIDDED POP FIELDS. PRECEDING THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES WELL MIXED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING
WITH DESERT VALLEYS REACHING THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST
COLORADO AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. A SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FROM RANGELY EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM CRAIG
TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE
I70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING AND MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PCPN
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE GRAND MESA TO CRESTED BUTTE. ESSENTIALLY
A WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED
ACROSS WRN WY...CENTRAL UT DOWN INTO NV. THE NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THE FRONT SO WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. 06Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT
WETTER THAN THE 00Z RUN BUT THE MAIN GIST REMAINS THE SAME. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MANY AREAS SEEING BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ENTERING
OUR CWA BY NOON WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALSO BRUSHES OUR EXTREME
SRN ZONES. KEPT POPS DOWN SOUTH WITH VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THAT AREA WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIP
ASSOD WITH FROPA UP N THIS AFTN. BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL
HAVE REACHED THE BOOKCLIFFS AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS VALUES WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FLATTOPS
AND PARK/GORE RANGES. CURRENT THINKING IS A FEW INCHES AT BEST
THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ABSOLUTELY NO
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SO DROPPED POPS IN FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY
THOUGH DID KEEP MINIMAL CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS STRAY
SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...H7 TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM -1C DOWN SOUTH TO -11C UP NORTH WITH MOST...IF NOT ALL...
VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A RATHER MODEST 80 JET STREAK WILL MOVE
OVER THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED FRONT AND AS IT DOES...SOME
MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AS INDICATED BY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MANY
AREAS INCLUDING VALLEY LOCATIONS. TOYED WITH ISSUING WINTER STORM
WATCHES WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE BUT WITH CONFIDENCE JUST NOT
HIGH ENOUGH...OPTED FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN FOR DAY SHIFT BEFORE
PULLING ANY TRIGGERS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
STRONG SHRTWV WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CLIMB TO OVER 3 G/KG AND
TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE -10 TO -15 C RANGE AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AGGRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO
SETUP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EFFICIENT SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY
ZONES. SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO VALLEY FLOORS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWN INTO THE GRAND VALLEY BETWEEN 3 AM AND
9 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ACCUMULATIONS FOR
MOUNTAIN ZONES LEANING TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...DROPPING AS WE WORK SOUTH. VALLEYS
WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SETTING UP ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE EAST TO VAIL. HAVE RAMPED
POPS UP AND ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE FORECAST AREA DRIVES INTO DRY
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS EVENING WILL BRING A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH LOWER CIGS AS THIS FRONT IMPACTS
KCAG...KDHN AND KSBS. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A WIND SHIFT...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST SOUTH OF LINE FROM KCNY-KGJT-KGUC.
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF
SURFACE WINDS 26025G35KT.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
..WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION
EARLY/MID WEEK ALONG THE COAST...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...TWO UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS...ONE PUSHING ACRS
THE NRN ROCKIES AND ONE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND...WILL INTERACT
WITH INDEPENDENT UPR LVL ANTICYCLONES OVER MEXICO AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO PUT A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE H30-H20 JET STREAM ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN THAT WILL
PUSH THE STRONG HI PRES EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX TO HUDSON BAY
INTO THE ERN SEABOARD.
WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL VEER TO THE E/NE AND FRESHEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS EWD. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST LOW LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA THAT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE
DRY/STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLO H85. NEAR AVG MIN TEMPS ALONG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR (M/U50S)...ARND 5F ABV AVG ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS AND THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE (L/M60S).
THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED MON
AFTN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (U70S/L80S).
LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE GULF
STREAM WITH A MARKED DECLINE IN SKY COVER OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. SIMILAR DEARTH IN CLOUD COVER NOTED BETWEEN THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND THE SE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS OF MID AFTN. RUC ANALYSIS
DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THRU THE H100-H70 LYR OTHER THAN
AN H100-H85 LYR BAND OF 70PCT MEAN RH OFF THE NE FL COAST. AIRMASS
SIMPLY APPEARS TOO DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT OVERNIGHT POPS OUTSIDE OF
THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS...AND LESS THAN 20PCT AT THAT.
AS THE NE BREEZE STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS MON AFTN...A DEEPER MARINE
STATOCU FIELD WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND MAY ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO DVLP IN
THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. A FEW MAY EVEN SURVIVE THEIR TREK
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH SHRAS WOULD HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT AS A STRONG MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP
VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT. QPF BLO 0.10" AREAWIDE.
THE BRISK NERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH TO DANGEROUS SURF BY
DAYBREAK MON...AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AT THEIR ANNUAL
PEAK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA JUST YET...THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN BEFORE THEY GET BETTER. WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN CONCURRENT WITH THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFT 10Z MONDAY MORNING. (SEE MARINE SECTION).
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE. BREEZY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...
AND WINDY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BREEZY INLAND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB...COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ADVECT A SMALL COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS WELL
INLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LINGERING ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRIMARLY CONCERNS WILL BE ALONG THE BEACHES WHERE DANGEROUS
BREAKING SURF EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5-6 FEET...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER SETS. MDL EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS
ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA WATER
ADVANCING TO NEAR THE DUNE LINE IN SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE...PRIMARILY 7-10 AM EST TUE-WED...WITH THE GREATEST
CONCERN FOR THE TUE MORNING TIDE. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WITH EARLY MONDAY FORECAST PACKAGE. COASTAL INTERESTS
SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
WED-SUN...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALONG WITH LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN
CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS
ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO
THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...SOME 4-8 DEGREES
ABOVE EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL CWA
AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN CWA DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW.
FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
FRI-SUN.
SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN
ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED
BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW EARLY
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 04/01Z...N/NE SFC WND G22-27KTS ALL SITES. BTWN
04/01Z-04/15Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060 E OF KTIX-KOBE. AFT
04/15Z...E/NE SFC WND G23-28KTS WITH SLGT CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL
SITES.
&&
.MARINE...TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. A STRONG HI PRES
BUILDING E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED
TROF OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SRN BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A FRESH TO
STRONG NE BREEZE WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO
6-8FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10FT IN THE GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...THEN TO
8-10FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 12FT IN THE GULFSTREAM BY EARLY MON AFTN.
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA CONFIGURATION.
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY/NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
LESSEN. E/SE FLOW SLACKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TO 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND
RESURGENCE OF 20 KNOT GRADIENT FLOW RE-DEVELOPS DOWN THE COAST
BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT DAYBREAK AND MID DAY
FRIDAY...ALONG WITH REBUILDING SEAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 61 78 67 81 / 20 20 20 20
MCO 58 81 64 84 / 10 20 20 20
MLB 67 79 72 82 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 68 80 72 84 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 56 79 63 82 / 10 20 20 20
SFB 59 80 64 83 / 10 20 20 20
ORL 58 80 65 83 / 10 20 20 20
FPR 68 79 71 83 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE-
OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEMINOLE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
201 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX UPPER LOW
HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN BUT REMAINS DEEP ENOUGH TO IMPACT EASTERN IDAHO
THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO TRAILING INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN REGION OF DIFFUSE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. SNOW FALLING IN BETWEEN
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS SO DIFFICULT TO GET A
HANDLE ON HOW MUCH COULD BE ACCUMULATING UNDER THE BAND. HRRR ONLY
MODEL TO HAVE A REAL HANDLE ON THIS BAND...WHICH APPEARS TO WEAKEN
AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN HIGHLANDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE.
SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO CONTINUING
TO SHIFT EAST...AND ADDITIONAL WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPARENT OVER
REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
IN PUSHING CURRENT SHORTWAVE PAST THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
SHOULD BRING A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE SNOWS TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH
PULLS FURTHER EAST WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO PANHANDLE
REGION TO REINFORCE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH GFS AND NAM
HOLD ON TO WEAK CONVECTION MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION NORTHERN ZONES
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH RAPIDLY DEEPENS THEN
SHIFTS EAST INTO WYOMING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK
TRANSITORY RIDGE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHES EASTERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE NUDGED
POPS UPWARD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE
TO THIS NEXT FAST MOVING FEATURE. DMH
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS SLIDE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND HAVE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN THAT TIME FRAME. MODELS
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS STRONGER IN
THIS SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A RETURN TO SOME MOISTURE ON SUNDAY.
GRIDS HAD POPS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DID NOT ALTER THEM MUCH AT ALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED.
GK
&&
.AVIATION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD HAVE IN ALL TAF SITE REGIONS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT SUN WHERE
CEILING DROPPED TO MVFR NEAR THE SHOWERS. MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER
TROF ROTATES THROUGH REGION MONDAY AND EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON SNOW
SHOWERS BUT UNLESS SITE UNDER SHOWER WILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
GK
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017-021.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD
PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN
PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS
SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER
VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE
INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND
H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE
LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E
LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND
ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR
SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH
SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO
NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO
DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS
ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT
PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS
FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS
ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25KT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THIS
TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
SHIFTING TO THE N-NW. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. NW WINDS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN IN THE 15-25KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
248 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show a stream of
embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the main wave
positioned across the western conus. The southwesterly flow has
allowed ample mid level moisture from the western coast to trail
northeast across the central plains, resulting in a mid level deck
of scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. This cloud
cover however has not hindered the strong southerly winds
continuing to gust to around 45 mph near the Concordia and Abilene
areas, lessening between 30 and 40 mph gusts near the Manhattan
and Topeka areas. Will continue with the current wind advisory
through 6 PM when winds weaken below criteria.
The surface trough responsible for the tight pressure gradient
should shift slightly eastward into western Kansas this evening as
a progressive upper shortwave trough lifts northeast through the
northern plains. This should keep the gusty winds in place
overnight, weakening slightly between 15 and 20 mph sustained with
gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with cloud cover in the area, lows in
the upper 40s will be common. In terms of precipitation, very weak
echos develop per the 4 km ARW and 3 km HRRR for late this evening
into the overnight hours. The NAM also hints at weak isentropic
lift on the 310 and 315K surfaces as an area of weak mid level
vorticity is noted across eastern areas of Kansas. The limiting
factors are the lack of strong mid level forcing and dry air at
the low levels with cloud bases near 10 KFT. Kept slight chances
for any developing shower just in case it is able to overcome the
drier air and reach the surface.
Another warm Monday afternoon is in store as the weak cold front
tracks southeast, weakening winds to around 10 mph along and
behind the boundary. Surface high pressure builds in bringing weak
cold advection into the area. Have trended highs toward 60 degrees
for north central areas, warming to the lower and middle 60s for
east central Kansas as southerly winds around 15 mph are
maintained through mid afternoon when the boundary arrives.
Conditions remain dry through the afternoon as a strong shortwave
trough deepens out west, bringing increasing rain chances by
Monday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
Overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning the pattern sets up
for a rainy early/mid week. By 12z Tuesday, the inverted surface
trof has set up along the central and northern portions of the cwa
while tropical moisture is swept northward over the central
plains. Rain showers expected to lift into the southern counties
in the evening and spread into Nebraska by sunrise. Not much
instability to work with throughout this entire system
progression, and will only carry isolated thunder as a result.
Of interest is PW values which come in at 1 to near 1.5 inches by
12z Tuesday which is about 180% of normal for this time of year.
Without a specific boundary or focusing mechanism in the cwa on
Tuesday would anticipate the moisture and ascent to bring a broad
area of moderate rain throughout the day, before the cold front
associated with the upper trof sweeps through in the overnight
hours. May see some pockets of heavier rain as the front moves
through, but have gone with generally 1-1.5 inches across the area
from evening Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
EC has come in not quite as cold at 850mb as the trof passes and
also not as far south. Cold temps already lagged behind the
moisture and will therefore keep mention of any snow mixed in with
the rain out of the forecast. Will have to see how the cold pool
moves across the northern counties on Wednesday morning into
afternoon as it could be cold/unstable enough to generate a few
flakes. Also will expect falling temperatures on Wednesday
afternoon as colder air comes in. Highs in the 50s on a rainy
Tuesday afternoon will become a dry breezy 40s for Wednesday.
Fortunately temperatures warm up slowly through the end of the
week as zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and the lee
trof/southerly surface winds return on Friday. GFS and EC differ
with the strength of the shortwave that slides across the northern
plains later Friday into Saturday, but with northern track have
kept the warmer drier trend at this time with highs in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR conditions persist with the focus being winds at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK.
Strong southerly winds sustained above 20 kts with gusts near or
above 30 kts are expected through 01Z. Mid level cloud cover
increases aft 01z, with any developing shower to impact areas
northeast of KTOP/KFOE. South to southeast winds remain above 15 kts
sustained overnight before beginning to veer towards the south at
KTOP/KFOE and southwest at KMHK aft 12z as a front approaches.
Wind speeds remain at or above 12 kts sustained through 18Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008>011-020>023-
034>036.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
109 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS
THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA.
THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH
CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT
RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO
THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO
WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE
ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN
THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH
RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT
ADVISORY.
IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS
SOUTH.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I
CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH
SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD
TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM
THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY
WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I
DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY.
MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM
10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER. LONGWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND WARMER
850 MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE
EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS SOLUTION WITH
ONLY 6-12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A
MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. IF THE FIRST SOLUTION PANS
OUT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND MAYBE SOME NORTH GUSTY WINDS
AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF A
CHANGE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. DUE TO AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE
MODELS AND MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE ALLBLEND GRIDS FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD
WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NW WINDS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF
KMCK...AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25KT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THIS
TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND
SHIFTING TO THE N-NW. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL
GUST IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. NW WINDS SHOULD THEN
REMAIN IN THE 15-25KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WIND SPEEDS ARE UP IN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW AND ARE EXPANDING INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE WIND
ADVISORY A FEW MORE COUNTIES NORTH SO IT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE RED
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ROSE QUICKLY AS THE WIND INCREASED WITH MOST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER NOW INTO THE LOW 50S. THICKER
CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SO THERE
MAY BE MORE FILTERED SUN THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS
STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND
GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET.
THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING
TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA.
THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP
AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF
HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL
HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE
ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z.
HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT.
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR
EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST
ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT
DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING
OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS
FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW
500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A
MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP
AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE
UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR
DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD
KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A
DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT
SUNSET SWITCHING TO THE SW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-039-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-
013>015-022-027>031-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1134 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
A STRONG SOUTH BREEZE EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
EAST...SO WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE
ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN BAROCLINIC LEAF. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF
KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO
45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND
EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR.
LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.UPDATE...
A STRONG SOUTH BREEZE EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS
EAST...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS
EAST...SO WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE
ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN BAROCLINIC LEAF. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY
ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC
WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF
KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET
COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED
LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY
REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN
CWA DRY ON TUESDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
20S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO
40 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND
EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000
FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND
KATY. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING
MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S..
THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS
OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE
RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS
POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4
INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY
ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO
CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB
WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35
KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z.
THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL
WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW
INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND
DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE
HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE
SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR
PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS
RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS
LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH
BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW
MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM
COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF
ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE
03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE
TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES...
GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE...
GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME
OF THOSE WINDS.
PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING
WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES...
THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE
FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE
AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT...
THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD
DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER
SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES
DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE
SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY...
THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE
FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE
SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST
FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN
EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED
EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH
APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH
SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING
IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY...
THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE
CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS
GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE
RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH
THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE...
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013
WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 24 KTS AT KRST WITH
GUSTS TO 34 KTS POSSIBLE. AT KLSE...WINDS WILL BE IN THE 14 TO
16 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 1800FT AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT PRODUCING LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS COULD MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CEASES. PLAN ON WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE
14 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIAL AT KRST. THE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...WITH BASES RANGING FROM 15-20KFT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP