Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/03/13


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
754 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... HIGHEST POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVEL OCCURS IN THE EARLY PART OF THIS EVENING...BUT THEN THE RATE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL DECREASE LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE AREA WILL BECOME CLOSER TO THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET...WHICH IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SYNOPTIC LIFT. HRRR MODEL HAS TRENDED DRIER SHOWING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE LOWERED WITH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR THE MOST NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING ACROSS. WIND WILL PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY. SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KT POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NYC METRO URBAN HEAT ISLAND...ALSO COASTAL SECTIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND. LOWS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE SOME INITIAL COOLING WITH LESS CLOUDS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES BEING A DEGREES BELOW FORECAST SO FAR. OVERALL THOUGH...LOWS WILL STILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S WELL INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MORNING CLOUDS WILL UNFORTUNATELY PREVENT VIEWING OF THE EARLY MORNING PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE...AND SKIES SHOULD ONLY GRADUALLY CLEAR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. GUSTY N WINDS BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR...WITH URBAN/COASTAL SECTIONS BARELY REACHING 50S...AND INLAND SECTIONS REMAINING IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS SHOULD TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ON A CONTINUED GUSTY N FLOW...WITH 20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S IN MOST OF NYC AND NASSAU COUNTY. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR URBAN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET ENDED. FROST UNLIKELY TO OCCUR WHERE TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DUE TO WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE A GRADUALLY LIFTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND OVERALL TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING OUT TOWARDS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AN OSCILLATING TREND TO ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHETHER OR NOT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE LONGEVITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS LINGERING PRECIP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES GOING INTO FRIDAY. A SCENARIO WITH LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENABLE FASTER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT A STRONG AND GUSTY NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP. VFR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS...NO IMPACT TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES...WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW...RIGHT AROUND 310 MAGNETIC FOR A TIME...AROUND 10KT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10KT TO 15KT. A FEW HIGH GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WIND DEVELOPS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND AND GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH THU... .SUN NIGHT...VFR. .MON THROUGH WED...PATCHY MORNING FOG TUE AND WED...OTHERWISE VFR. .THU...LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW THEN N AFTER FROPA...AND GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS COULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT INCLUDE A SCA HEADLINE YET FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND...AS GUSTS OVER THE EASTERN SOUND/BAYS MAY ONLY OCCUR BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTS JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA MAY OCCUR IN NY HARBOR FOR MOST OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO RAISE SCA THERE. LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS PRIMARILY THE OCEAN FOR MON MORNING. THEREAFTER DUE TO A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT... WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS FORECAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. SCA CONDITIONS COULD THEN RETURN FOR THU WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FETCH WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD IS EXPECTED SUNDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO 30-35 PERCENT. && .HYDROLOGY... MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WED. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT... INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE THU NIGHT. GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF PRECIP SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED. QPF GENERALLY 0.75 INCH OR LESS WITH CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR CSTL FLOODING BENCHMARKS DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LONG ISLAND SOUND. && .EQUIPMENT... DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM. DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CTZ009>011. NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NYZ071-074-078>081. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1040 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030 AM UPDATE... FINE LINE OF LOW TOP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BECOME FRAGMENTED ACROSS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. MEANWHILE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS MORE ROBUST ACROSS CT/LONG ISLAND AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES BEST MUCAPE /ALBEIT MINIMAL/ IS OVER CT AND POINTS SOUTH. THUS EXPECTING STRONGEST WIND AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE. AS RESULT THREAT FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IF LINE REMAINS IN TACT. SURPRISINGLY PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR NOT HANDLING/CAPTURING THIS LINE VERY WELL. ITS SURPRISINGLY GIVEN HRRR USUALLY PERFORMS WELL IN STRONGLY FORCED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENTS. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS MARKED BY A COLD FRONT AND A PRES RISE/FALL COUPLET. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS NOT MUCH COOLER...STILL MILD BEHIND THE FRONT BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER WITH DEW PTS FALLING FROM THE 60S INTO THE 50S. THIS DRIER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT TO WSW WILL HELP STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT GUSTS UP TO 40 KT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------ DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR. EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT STALLS. WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE 12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST- FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS * COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY * MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK. * POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW. EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. DETAILS... SATURDAY... MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO TODAY. SUNDAY... THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND BEYOND... MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 1030 AM UPDATE... LINE OF LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AS MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS CT AND POSSIBLY RI AND SOUTHEAST MA IF LINE REMAINS IN TACT. SSW WINDS GUSTS TO 45 KT INTO THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO WSW THIS AFTERNOON WITH G40KT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA INTO NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------- TODAY...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 18-21Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45 KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FLOODING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026. NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...KJC/NOCERA/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
907 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 9 AM UPDATE... FINE LINE OF LOW TOP CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NY STATE AND WESTERN NJ WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME FRAGMENTED AS IT APPROACHES AND ENTERS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE...AS BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. NEVERTHELESS WIND THREAT REMAINS HIGH AS OUR KBOX RADAR VAD WIND PROFILE DETECTING 60 KT OF WIND AT 2 KFT HERE IN TAUNTON MA. CORE OF 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MA THROUGH 15Z/11AM...THEN BEGINNING TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER WIND THREAT REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL HELP TRANSPORT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. ALSO HIGHER TERRAIN REMAIN AT RISK GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEPARTURE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN POST FRONTAL AIRMASS YIELDING GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH. THUS EXPECT A WINDY DAY FROM START TO FINISH WITH WINDS FINALLY EASING AROUND SUNSET. ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST WILL BE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS AS 9 AM READINGS ARE ALREADY NEAR 70 /70 AT MARSHFIELD/! WILL KEEP AN EYE ON RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY WHICH ARE IN THE U70S /BOS AND PVD/ L70S FOR ORH AND L80S FOR BDL. NOT SURPRISING REGARDING THIS NEAR RECORD WARMTH GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET BEING +3 STD FROM CLIMO. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR. EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT STALLS. WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE 12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST- FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS * COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY * MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK. * POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW. EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. DETAILS... SATURDAY... MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO TODAY. SUNDAY... THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND BEYOND... MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. 9 AM UPDATE... LINE OF LOW TOP SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NJ WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS NEW ENGLAND. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NYC/LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. SSW WINDS GUSTS TO 45 KT INTO THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO WSW THIS AFTERNOON WITH G45KT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MA INTO NH. EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW. ------------------------------------------------------------------- TODAY...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 18-21Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45 KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FLOODING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026. NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...NOCERA SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
726 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 730 AM UPDATE... OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS MORNING. BULK OF THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO SIT ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER IS THE FINE LINE OUT ACROSS NY/PA. HAVE NOT SEEN A LOT OF DAMAGE REPORTS FROM THIS FINE LINE...HOWEVER WITH TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COULD SEE SOME MIXING OF THE LLJ DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS LLJ IS ALREADY NEARING 55-65 KTS PER LATEST VWP DATA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...STRONG GUSTS OF 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALLOWING FOR DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. CURRENTLY GUSTS ARE BETWEEN 20-35 KTS AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE CHANGES TO ONGOING HAZARDS IS NOT NEEDED. PRECIP AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO WANE BETWEEN 18-21Z ALLOWING FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON TO BE SOMEWHAT PLEASANT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR. EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT STALLS. WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE 12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST- FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS * COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY * MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK. * POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW. EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. DETAILS... SATURDAY... MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO TODAY. SUNDAY... THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND BEYOND... MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 18-21Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45 KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FLOODING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026. NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
417 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND STALL NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. UNSEASONABLY MILD AND WINDY TODAY WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AFFECT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... DRY SLOT AND PRECIP LULL LIFTING NWD ACROSS SNE EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS WELL FORECAST BY SHORT RANGE MODEL SUITE INCLUDING HRRR. EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT WILL BE ACROSS FAR NW ZONES WHERE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH THESE SHOWERS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN WELL ENTRENCHED WITH TEMPS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. ANOMALOUS LOW PRES -4SD LIFTS NE FROM GT LAKES TODAY WITH +3SD LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS SNE TODAY. PWAT ANOMALY ALSO +3SD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ASSOCD WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. ALSO CONCERNED WITH A POSSIBLE FINE LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING PER HRRR SOLUTION. MODELS ARE GENERATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES 200-400 J/KG SO THIS SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. LOW RISK OF ISOLD THUNDER AND IF FINE LINE DOES DEVELOP THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE RISK OF STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH QPF LESS THAN 0.5" FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UP TO 1" ACROSS FAR W ZONES. LOCALIZED MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING W ZONES LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY...AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. BUT SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS AS FRONT STALLS. WIND THREAT...CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SNE 12-18Z. SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY SHALLOW PREFRONTAL MIXING BUT POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40+ KTS THIS MORNING. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FINE LINE WOULD ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF RI AND INTERIOR E MA WHERE MILDEST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S PROMOTE DEEPER MIXING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PULSE OF STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS TO 40+ KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEEPENS. STRONGEST POST- FRONTAL WINDS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LESS WIND ALONG THE COAST. WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT AS A WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP S OF NEW ENG. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING TONIGHT ACROSS SE COASTAL NEW ENG...ESPECIALLY THE OUTER CAPE AND ISLANDS WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE INTERIOR. AMERICAN MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNATIONAL MODELS BRING A DECENT SLUG OF RAIN TO THE OUTER CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT. WITH FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST...WE TRENDED FORECAST TOWARD WETTER SOLUTION AND HAVE LIKELY POPS TO ACK WITH CHC POPS TO THE CAPE AND S COASTAL MA. LOW PROB THAT SHOWERS COULD BACK IN TO THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT BUT WE KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY...CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS * COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY * MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER BY MID NEXT WEEK. * POSSIBLE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY/FRIDAY CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE... MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS YET LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT PRECIP TIMING. LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION BY TOMORROW. EXPECT THIS EXPANSIVE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE WITH THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WITH THE EC ON THE FASTER END AND THE GFS ON THE SLOW SIDE. TRENDED IN THE MIDDLE FOR NOW. FINALLY THE LAST IMPULSE WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPS BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS CONCUR WITH A WESTERN TROUGH TO STRONGLY AMPLIFY RESULTING IN RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. HOWEVER THIS WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. EXACT TIMING FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN. DETAILS... SATURDAY... MID-ATLANTIC LOW WILL DEVELOP AND HEAD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...TRENDED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD COMPARED TO THE GFS AND EC. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN TERMS OF WHERE THE RAIN WILL AND WILL NOT FALL. HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL SIDE OF MASSACHUSETTS. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE UP TO THE MARITIMES BY THE SATURDAY NIGHT SO CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL WANE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. REGARDLESS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND LESS WINDY. DEFINITELY AN IMPROVEMENT COMPARED TO TODAY. SUNDAY... THE UNSEASONABLE WARM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY AS THE THIRD AND LAST IMPULSE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG CAA BEHIND IT DROPPING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO SEASONABLE. IN FACT 850 MB TEMPS DROP BETWEEN -6 TO -9C RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS TO BE BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH COASTAL LOW WAY OUT IN THE MARITIMES AND CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...DUE NORTH WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN EFFECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST LINE AND ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTIONED FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ALOFT ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...BELIEVE LIQUID PRECIP WILL HOLD OUT AS SURFACE AND BL TEMPS WILL STILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ESP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST THE REGION HAS SEEN IN AWHILE WITH HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE...LOW TO MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. IN FACT MID 60S RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY AND BEYOND... MODELS BEGIN TO DRIVE THE WESTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. APPEARS THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...A LOT CAN CHANGE SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. THROUGH 12Z...CIGS BEGINNING TO LOWER TO MVFR AND EXPECT AREAS OF IFR TO DEVELOP. FOG WILL NOT BE A BIG CONCERN WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN ANY SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO FAR NW ZONES. WIND GUSTS TO 25-35 KT DEVELOPING. FRI...IFR-MVFR WITH A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...EXITING 16-20Z FROM WEST TO EAST WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR VFR. STRONG S/SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-45 KT RI AND EASTERN MA IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. TONIGHT...LINGERING MVFR/IFR IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AT ACK...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS CAPE COD. OTHERWISE VFR WITH DIMINISHING WIND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER IN EXACT TIMING. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO START WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. SUNDAY...VFR. NNW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...SW GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35-40 KT. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS EXIT OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WIND AND SEAS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SE WATERS...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON NW EXTENT OF SHOWERS. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR SEAS OVER 5 FEET AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT NORTH GALES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS ON SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES MAY BE LIMITED IN INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE WATERS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST ARE MINIMAL. NOT MUCH OF A SURGE GIVEN SURFACE LOW AND PRESSURE FALLS ARE TRACKING SO FAR NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND. WILL HAVE MODEST TO LARGE WAVE ACTION ON THE SOUTH COAST BUT TIDES WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FLOODING. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ002>024-026. NH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ011-012-015. RI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ001>008. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230>237-250- 251-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN SHORT TERM...KJC/DUNTEN LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
946 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A DRY COLD FRONT AT MID EVENING WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND IT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT. SURFACE PRES TENDENCIES UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA SHOW READINGS ALREADY RISING AT GREATER THAN 1 MB PER HOUR SINCE 00Z AND HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR THE STORY...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL AROUND AT 930 PM OVER SE GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH... BUT THESE CLOUDS UNLIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN UNDERWAY...LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD BUT SEVERAL INITIALIZATION ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED MANY AREAS FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CONSOLIDATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WITH ONE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MERGE INTO A SPRAWLING AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS COINCIDES WITH A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN DURING SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY...BEFORE THIS RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD ATOP THE AREA MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH IS A TUTT LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THAT MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRAIL TO THE EAST AND SE OF THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY-WINDY ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSED...EVENTUALLY THERE IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG NE AND EAST FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL MCINTOSH AND COASTAL LIBERTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO ALL OF COASTAL SE GA AND MAYBE INTO THE SHORELINE AREAS OF SOUTHERN SC ON TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG PINCH-FEST DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS THEY CLIMB UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INLAND WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE COOL ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S MOST PLACES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE DAYS IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST...SO FINE-TUNING MAY BE IN ORDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WILL EXIST BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM INLAND TO THE COAST...WITH AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE SPREAD FROM PLACES ALONG THE COLDER NW TIER TO THE MILDER BARRIER ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...YET STILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT FEATURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD LOSE STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING ITS PROGRESSION. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BEFORE A COOLING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY DURING MID MORNING INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-END CHANCE OF PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... OVERNIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FROPA GIVEN THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET. GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE LIKELY...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM GIVEN LATEST TRENDS PORTRAYED BY MODELS SUCH AS LOCAL WRF DATA AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG OF SURGE RELATED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SUNDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1029 MB HIGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS CONSOLIDATING CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EARLY DAY COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH AND NE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT WE/LL NEED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAG FOR AMZ374...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FREQUENCY OF ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IS LIMITED WE HAVE REFRAINED AT THIS STAGE FROM DOING SO. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 5 FT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH A FEW 6-FOOTERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME EAST PORTION OUTER GA WATERS LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A NASTY MARINE EVENT WILL UNFOLD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE TIME...WITH SOLID SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR...WITH EVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT THAT GALES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A HUMONGOUS AND INTENSIFYING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOWER PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A LARGE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WITH TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS WILL PREVAIL. GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ARE GREATER THANH 30 OR 35 KT...WITH EVEN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OF 40 OR EVEN 45 KT TO OCCUR. SOUNDING PROFILES REVEAL A SOLID 25-30 KT WITHIN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH EVEN A FEW LAYERS OVER 30 KT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE FEEL HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT SCA/S WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ON MONDAY...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GALES COULD BE HOISTED AT A LATER TIME. SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD WITH THE FAVORABLE AND LONG DURATION AND LONG-TRAVELED NE TO EAST FETCH...AND WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 10 OR 11 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE OR STRONG ONSHORE IS IN THE OFFING BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOLID 3-4 MILLIBAR SPREAD WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON SUNDAY AND THE UPCOMING PERIGEE ON WEDNESDAY. SO IT WON/T TAKE TOO MUCH OF A POSITIVE DEPARTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THERE IS EVEN THE RISK OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS THERE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE AREAS OF BEACH EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 6-9 FEET AND WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW ONSHORE BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE COULD ATTAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER WATCH ON POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS NAVIGATING IN AND OUT OF HARBORS AND PORTS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM...WMS AVIATION...33 MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
511 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO STORM CELLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED BY LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR MODEL INDICATING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. LATER THIS EVENING...SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE CLOSE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -RA AND BR AT ALL SITES. IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RA AND BR. THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL AND MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN TO VFR. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN LOW AND MID LEVELS...CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WILDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALL NIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
509 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.... SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NO STORM CELLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING DETECTED BY LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADAR. HRRR MODEL INDICATING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MID-EVENING...AND THEN TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE CLOSE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF AND EKD MOS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -RA AND BR AT ALL SITES. IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RA AND BR. THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL AND MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 23Z...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN TO VFR. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN LOW AND MID LEVELS...CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WILDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALL NIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED AT MIDDAY. THE HRRR INDICATES COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 300 PM AND 500 PM POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS. CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AND 50 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET. SOME OF THIS WIND COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT 800 PM WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 1000 PM. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE RAINFALL MOVES IN...MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -RA AND BR AT ALL SITES. IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RA AND BR. THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE MAIN BATCH OF RAINFALL AND MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY 22Z...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVING ONCE AGAIN TO VFR. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT IN LOW AND MID LEVELS...CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT BY 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT THE WILDS SHIFT TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. WIND SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ALL NIGHT TO INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1203 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED AT MIDDAY. THE HRRR INDICATES COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 300 PM AND 500 PM POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS. CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AND 50 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET. SOME OF THIS WIND COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT 800 PM WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 1000 PM. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1038 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWER COVERAGE WAS SCATTERED LATE THIS MORNING. THE HRRR INDICATES COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 300 PM AND 500 PM POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WE PLAN TO CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS. CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR BECAUSE OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE KCAE VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AND 50 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET. SOME OF THIS WIND COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS SHOULD HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE THIS EVENING. THE HRRR INDICATES WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT 800 PM WITH SHOWERS SHIFTING MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA BY 1000 PM. STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND BUT THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
956 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ESPECIALLY TOWARD 5 PM. A 120-KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JETLET WILL PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH 2+ INCHES OF PWAT AND A 50-KNOT H85 JET PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO AROUND -2 MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR ALTHOUGH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN INDICATE RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH AND THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE STRONG H85 JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUS THE HRRR DISPLAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH DRIER AND COOL AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
852 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SHOWS SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING ESPECIALLY TOWARD 5 PM. A 120-KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JETLET WILL PROVIDE UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE DIVERGENCE COMBINED WITH 2+ INCHES OF PWAT AND A 50-KNOT H85 JET PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CLOUDINESS AND RAIN SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE-BASED LI/S LOWERING TO AROUND -2 MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. SHEAR WILL BE HIGH. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR ALTHOUGH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO OCCUR DURING THE 16Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THE NAM...GFS...AND SREF MEAN INDICATE RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH AND THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE STRONG H85 JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUS THE HRRR DISPLAY OF SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASING LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH DRIER AND COOL AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 70S WEST TO AROUND 80 EAST. WE USED THE COOLER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY JUST BELOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY WILL COOL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL RIDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA...PROVIDING AN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE MAY BECOME DEEP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS CLOSER WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EKD MOS POPS WHICH WERE CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE REGIONAL SATELLITE SHOWING MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN BRINGING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE INDICATING THE ONSET OF THE LOWER MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIGS. REGIONAL 88D COMPOSITE SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS BACK NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS NW GA INTO ERN TN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAIN FEATURE. CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TS WILL NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND 14-16Z ACROSS THE WESTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA THEN MOVING EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MIDLANDS NEAR 18Z AND THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/PEE DEE AROUND 22-24Z. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PASSAGE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER THAT TIME...THINK RISK OF STORMS WILL GREATLY DIMINISH WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z. EXPECT SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME WEST/WEST NORTHWEST. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
151 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 858 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013/ PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT AFD TIME...WITH SOME PATCHY RETURNS SHOWING UP HERE AND THERE ON RADAR. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND FROM THESE WEAK ECHOES BUT THEIR EXISTENCE DOES LEND SOME CREDENCE TO THE HRRR SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE IS ALL REALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE FOR THE MOST PART THE CWA WILL REMAIN PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES NORTHWEST BUT REALLY HAVE NOT STARTED INCREASING POPS UNTIL AFTER THAT POINT. SHOULD ENCROACH UPON THE METRO AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT... AND TOWARDS CENTRAL GEORGIA /MACON AREA/ BY 12Z. SO TRICK-OR- TREATING SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING. ONTO SOME DETAILS...STARTING WITH QPF...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT OVERALL BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AN INCH THROUGH THE EVENT. NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF VALUES ESPECIALLY 12-18Z FRIDAY BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED PRECIP ISSUES ESPECIALLY WITH ANY OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS. OTHER CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...NAM IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BUT THE GFS IS COMING IN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MUCAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH OVER 700 J/KG...NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM. EXPECT THAT ANY PRECIP THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS SHOWERS...THOUGH DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN STARTING AT 06Z NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY ONLY WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY OR HIGHER. SWATH OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE METRO AREA BY AROUND 12Z...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 18Z. SO OVERALL VERY...VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT WHEN CONTRASTED WITH THE VERY STRONG SHEAR...WE CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BY 06Z TONIGHT ARE OVER 40KT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH 60-70KT 0-6KM SHEAR. 0-1KM SHEAR DROPS OFF THROUGH TIME TO GENERALLY BELOW 35KT BY 12Z FRIDAY...AND LESS THAN 30KT BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT OVER 60KT. SO WE HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM 06-18Z FRIDAY AND DECREASING SHEAR. SOMEWHERE IN THERE A PERFECT JUXTAPOSITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS A SEE TEXT FOR DAY2 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO POINT TO FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEING OF GREATER CONCERN THAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHERB PARAMETER...WHICH WAS CALIBRATED TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE SEVERE WEATHER...IS MAXIMIZED LATE THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM JUST BEFORE 18Z TOMORROW /RIGHT BEFORE FROPA/ AROUND THE METRO AREA. OF COURSE...ALL THAT SAID /OR WRITTEN/...OVERALL CONCERN FOR SEVERE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. IT JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES BUT PULLED BACK ON BIAS ADJUSTMENT DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND IMPENDING AIRMASS CHANGE. TDP LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING THE LONG TERM DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE H5 TROUGH WILL EXIT THE U.S. SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEAR BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO THE H5 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE HIGH AND BRINGS A FAST MOVING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. 17 && .AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION ARE THE CEILINGS AND WIND. RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS CAUSED CEILINGS TO DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS NEAR 12Z. SOME GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT GUSTS WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. WITH FROPA NW WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. //ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE... MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. ARG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 70 48 69 42 / 90 10 0 0 ATLANTA 71 50 67 43 / 80 10 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 71 43 61 38 / 60 20 20 0 CARTERSVILLE 73 44 67 40 / 60 5 0 0 COLUMBUS 73 51 72 44 / 90 10 0 0 GAINESVILLE 72 49 67 42 / 80 10 10 0 MACON 74 49 74 41 / 90 20 0 0 ROME 72 43 66 40 / 50 5 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 72 45 69 38 / 90 10 0 0 VIDALIA 78 58 76 48 / 90 80 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ARG LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...ARG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1248 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... 312 AM CDT PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK! AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24 TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE PUN). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 18E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z... * MVFR CIGS ARND 1800-2000FT AGL WILL PERSIST THRU THE OVERNIGHT. * WEST WINDS ARND 10-14KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT THRU 21-22Z...THEN SPEEDS ARND 10-13KT THRU THIS EVENING. * A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY MAINLY BETWEEN 23-02Z. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO KEEP CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOOKING AT CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY ANY IMPROVEMENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY IN THE NEAR TERM. WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY...HOWEVER A WEAK ELEVATED WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN AND BRING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE NOTED AT VARIOUS POINTS THIS AFTN...HOWEVER EXPECT WITH THE WAVE SLIDING OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AND WINDS TURNING NW THAT THE GUSTS WILL DISSIPATE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY ARND 10-13KT. IN ADDITION TO THE OVERHEAD WAVE THAT IS SLIDING OVERHEAD THIS AFTN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. TIMING FOR ANY PRECIP DOES LOOK TO BE FAVORED BETWEEN 23Z AND 02Z...SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE CURRENT TAF. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SLUGGISH WITH LIFTING CIGS BEYOND 2KFT AGL OVERNIGHT...AND IN MANY INSTANCES WILL HOLD DOWN ARND 1700-1800FT AGL. GIVEN THE TREND HAS BEEN TO HOLD ONTO LOW CIGS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CIGS DOWN GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MORE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS LATE SAT MORNING...AND EXPECT BETTER MIXING TO EVENTUALLY PRODUCE A SCT CLOUD DECK ARND 3000-4000FT AGL BY 17-18Z SAT. BEACHLER //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIR/SPEED/GUSTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS DISSIPATING BY 23Z. * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS HOLDING AT MVFR CONDS THRU DAYBREAK SAT. * MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRECIP AFT 22Z THRU 02Z. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VF SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY...VFR TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...MVFR. RAIN LIKELY. THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... 344 AM CDT GALES ON LAKE MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. W PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LABRADOR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER DURING LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FRESHENING OUT THE SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E INTO THE PLAINS. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9AM CDT THIS A.M. THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ON THE N PORTION OF LAKE MI SHOULD BE BELOW GALES WITH ONLY SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATER MORNING UNTIL WINDS DROP OFF. WITH W WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT WAVES DID NOT BUILD GREATLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IL SHORE TRS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1230 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1020 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 Southern edge of stratocumulus roughly along a Macomb to Paris line late this morning. This has not made a lot of southward progress over the last few hours, but morning model guidance continues to show a southern nudge through the afternoon as a weak trough drops southward through Wisconsin. Updated zones/grids were sent to make some adjustments for the cloud trends for today. Temperatures and winds were largely on track and only required minor tweaks. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 Persistent area of stratocumulus from KPIA-KBMI-KCMI to persist for several more hours and slowly sink southward. Still seeing a fair amount of MVFR ceilings further north as a weak trough drops southward, which will likely affect these sites at times. Around KSPI/KDEC, diurnal clouds have been increasing and mostly should be VFR. Will see much of the lower clouds pull out shortly after 00Z, but another area of stratocumulus associated with an upper disturbance over the Dakotas may move in again later on. Geelhart && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today. 07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave, forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip through tonight. Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to middle 30s by Sunday morning. LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to focus highest PoPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model guidance pushes front east of the region. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1117 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... 312 AM CDT PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK! AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24 TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE PUN). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 18E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * CEILING HEIGHTS ARND 2KFT AGL THRU LATE AFTN. * WIND GUSTS TO 20KT THRU THIS AFTN. * PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. BEACHLER //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 14Z... CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE POISED TO PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTN...THAT CIGS MAY COME UP A BIT ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. SO ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR AFTN CIGS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION UPDATED 12Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THOUGH A STRONG JET DROPPING SE FROM B.C. AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ARE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES THE FIRST OF WHICH IS TURNING MORE TO THE E OVER IA AND NORTHERN MO AS IT NEARS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MIDDAY. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY PRECIP OF NOTE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM AROUND 6K FT AGL UP. MODELS BRING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS NEARING SATURATION 22Z-00Z. MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT WETTING SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY WENT FROM PROB30 TO VCSH FOR 12Z SET OF TAFS. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH TIME THOUGH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SO A MODERATE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST TODAY. WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY W THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BACKING AS EACH SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE VEERING AS EACH PASSES BY. OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN WSW AND WNW. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL SHOWS A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASES SO HAVE LEFT PREVAILING VFR IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHEN EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER BACK INTO MVFR RANGE. TRS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. BEACHLER //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VF SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY...VFR TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...MVFR. RAIN LIKELY. THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... 344 AM CDT GALES ON LAKE MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. W PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LABRADOR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER DURING LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FRESHENING OUT THE SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E INTO THE PLAINS. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9AM CDT THIS A.M. THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ON THE N PORTION OF LAKE MI SHOULD BE BELOW GALES WITH ONLY SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATER MORNING UNTIL WINDS DROP OFF. WITH W WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT WAVES DID NOT BUILD GREATLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IL SHORE TRS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1020 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1020 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 Southern edge of stratocumulus roughly along a Macomb to Paris line late this morning. This has not made a lot of southward progress over the last few hours, but morning model guidance continues to show a southern nudge through the afternoon as a weak trough drops southward through Wisconsin. Updated zones/grids were sent to make some adjustments for the cloud trends for today. Temperatures and winds were largely on track and only required minor tweaks. Geelhart && .AVIATION... ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 West to northwest flow will persist across the central Illinois terminals today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A period of gusty winds is expected for much of the daytime hours today due to a moderately strong pressure gradient lingering in the area, as will as enhanced diurnal mixing. Wrap around moisture will produce cigs across much of the area today, with period of MVFR or even IFR likely this morning though most of the terminals. Cigs will rise with time today, with VFR cigs expected to develop area wide by tonight. Bak && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today. 07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave, forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip through tonight. Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to middle 30s by Sunday morning. LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to focus highest PoPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model guidance pushes front east of the region. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
712 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... 312 AM CDT PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK! AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24 TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE PUN). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 18E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z... * CEILING HEIGHTS. * WIND GUSTS. * PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TRS //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE NE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THOUGH A STRONG JET DROPPING SE FROM B.C. AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHARPEN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THIS NW FLOW ARE MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES THE FIRST OF WHICH IS TURNING MORE TO THE E OVER IA AND NORTHERN MO AS IT NEARS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ZIP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MIDDAY. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY PRECIP OF NOTE FROM THIS DISTURBANCE AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SOME MOISTENING OF MID LEVELS THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM AROUND 6K FT AGL UP. MODELS BRING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE INITIALLY DRY MID LEVELS NEARING SATURATION 22Z-00Z. MODELS ALSO GENERATE SOME PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. EXPECT WETTING SHOWERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BUT COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO HAVE ONLY WENT FROM PROB30 TO VCSH FOR 12Z SET OF TAFS. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH TIME THOUGH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SO A MODERATE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST TODAY. WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY W THOUGH SUSPECT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BACKING AS EACH SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A LITTLE VEERING AS EACH PASSES BY. OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN WSW AND WNW. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION HIGH RESOLUTION ARW MODEL SHOWS A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THE CLOUD BASES SO HAVE LEFT PREVAILING VFR IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON WHEN EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER BACK INTO MVFR RANGE. TRS //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE WINDS...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL OTHER ELEMENTS. TRS //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z... SATURDAY NIGHT...VF SUNDAY...VFR MONDAY...VFR TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY...MVFR. RAIN LIKELY. THURSDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... 344 AM CDT GALES ON LAKE MI WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO QUEBEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. W PRESSURE OF 28.9 INCHES OVER THE NORTH CHANNEL OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO LABRADOR BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER DURING LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE FRESHENING OUT THE SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE E AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES E INTO THE PLAINS. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 9AM CDT THIS A.M. THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ON THE N PORTION OF LAKE MI SHOULD BE BELOW GALES WITH ONLY SOME LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE IL AND IN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE LATER MORNING UNTIL WINDS DROP OFF. WITH W WINDS BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S COLD FRONT WAVES DID NOT BUILD GREATLY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IL SHORE TRS && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE GARY TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL NOON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 700 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today. 07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave, forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip through tonight. Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to middle 30s by Sunday morning. LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to focus highest POPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model guidance pushes front east of the region. Barnes && .AVIATION... ISSUED 659 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 West to northwest flow will persist across the central Illinois terminals today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A period of gusty winds is expected for much of the daytime hours today due to a moderately strong pressure gradient lingering in the area, as will as enhanced diurnal mixing. Wrap around moisture will produce cigs across much of the area today, with period of MVFR or even IFR likely this morning though most of the terminals. Cigs will rise with time today, with VFR cigs expected to develop areawide by tonight. Bak && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
312 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... 312 AM CDT PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS MORNING INCLUDE CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECT ON TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SHOWER CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS TO BE A POSSIBLE REPEAT OF THIS WEEK`S EVENTS NEXT WEEK! AFTER DEEPENING 15MB IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE POWERHOUSE AUTUMN STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION. RAIN HAS ENDED BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE USHERING IN A STARKLY DIFFERENT AIR MASS COMPARED WITH 24 HOURS AGO WITH 24 TEMP/TD CHANGES OF 20-25F. COMBINATION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW VERY LITTLE TEMP RECOVERY AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY NORTHERN CWA WHERE PROSPECTS FOR SUNSHINE ARE DIMMER (PARDON THE PUN). WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS BRING BOTH OF THESE WAVES EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING TODAY...MUCH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH THESE SECONDARY WAVES WHICH WILL STEEPEN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. FREEZING LEVELS DROP TO JUST OVER 3K FT AGL AND GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS IT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GRAUPEL REPORTS LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SHORTWAVE RIDGING RESULTS IN DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVERNIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY TO RESULT IN STRATUS HANGING AROUND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO PART OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS WAA BEGINS. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL TEMP SWING AND HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. ASSUMING STRATUS FINALLY CLEARS SAT NIGHT HAVE ALLOWED FOR A HEALTHY DROP IN TEMPS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL MARK A TRANSITION PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND IS REPLACED BY LONGWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST. INITIALLY WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALOFT SUNDAY BUT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES OVER SATURDAY. FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP...THOUGH INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD FILTER SUNSHINE AND TEMPER THE WARM UP A BIT. NEXT SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SUSPECT THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING...MUCH LIKE HAPPENED WITH THIS WEEK`S SYSTEM. STILL LOOK FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY...BUT THE BEST RAIN BET APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWATS ONCE AGAIN ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB TO WELL OVER AN INCH...OR OVER 200% OF NORMAL WITH SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTING THAT SOME OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 97E OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC POSSIBLY GETTING ENTANGLED INTO THIS SYSTEM...SO ONCE AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A HEALTHY RAIN EVENT. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z... * MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. * GUSTY NNWLY WINDS BACKING TO WLY. GUSTS SUBSIDING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KREIN //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z... THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE TERMINALS AND THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE SOME SCT SHRA FOR A FEW MORE HRS THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PREVAILING CONDITION. WITH THE WARM..HUMID AIR PUSHING TO THE EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THE IFR CIGS HAVE ENDED WITH THE LOSS OF THE WARM...HUMID AIRMASS...BUT PERSISTENT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME DIURNAL WARMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT SHOULD THEN LOWER BACK TO MVFR AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL WILL REMAIN GUSTY TO 20-25KT FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION...BUT SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING AROUND THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF REINFORCING COOLER AIR...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SHRA AS WELL AS RENEWED GUSTINESS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. KREIN //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z... * MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CIG TRENDS. * MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIND TRENDS. * MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS. KREIN //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 00Z... SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. SUNDAY...VFR. WX NIL. MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR. TUESDAY...RAIN LIKELY. CHANCE MVFR CIGS/VIS. WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY EARLY THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CHANCE MVFR CIGS/VIS EARLY. VFR LIKELY LATE. KREIN && .MARINE... 209 PM CDT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THIS EVENING AS IT NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES OF GALES FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS. AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AS THE LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL ALSO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALES DEVELOPING WITH NEARLY 40-44KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC FRI AFTN/EVE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE FRI MORNING...WITH GALES ENDING BY MID-MORNING FRI. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WESTERLY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES FRI EVE...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SAT. THE GRADIENT DOESN/T COMPLETELY GO AWAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING ARND 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. THEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND STRETCHES TO COVER LAKE MICHIGAN SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS. THE WEATHER REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN GALES TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...HIGH. BEACHLER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565- LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868- LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY. GALE WARNING...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 304 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 303 AM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013 SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday Northwesterly upper flow pattern will keep plenty of cloud cover in place across at least the northern half of the KILX CWA today. 07z/2am satellite imagery shows overcast conditions upstream over much of Iowa, with satellite timing tools generally keeping the clouds along/north of the I-74 corridor as they work eastward this morning. Further south, mostly clear skies will be noted along and south of a Springfield to Paris line initially: however, cooling aloft will create fairly steep lapse rates and additional diurnal cloud development. CU rule remains most negative across the northern CWA, but still suggests SCT-BKN cloud cover even across the south. End result will be mostly cloudy skies north and partly sunny conditions far south. Short-wave trough currently evident on water vapor imagery over eastern Montana will drop southeastward later today into tonight. Weak lift ahead of this feature may trigger a few sprinkles late this afternoon, particularly across the northern CWA. Based on latest HRRR and 4km WRF-NMM, have included scattered sprinkles for locations north of Peoria late this afternoon. Despite weak lift ahead of the approaching wave, forecast soundings remain too dry to support measurable precip through tonight. Cool/dry weather will be the rule through the weekend, as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will only be in the 50s both Saturday and Sunday, while lows dip into the lower to middle 30s by Sunday morning. LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday Challenges in the extended continue to focus on strength of building upper ridge over the southeast CONUS and timing of approaching short-wave next week. Previous runs of the ECMWF had featured an unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high developing over the Carolinas by Monday/Tuesday. This strong ridge essentially slowed the eastward progress of an upper short-wave over the Plains, resulting in an extended period of rain chances across central Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both the GFS and GEM were slightly weaker with the high and thus brought the Plains wave and associated cold front eastward a bit faster. 00z Nov 1 run of the ECMWF has now come into much better agreement with the GFS/GEM, leading to increased confidence in a more progressive pattern next week. As such, will continue to focus highest POPs during the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame when strongest lift and deepest moisture will be present. Have opted to go with a dry forecast for Thursday, as all model guidance pushes front east of the region. Barnes && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 MVFR clouds look to be holding tough in the post frontal airmass. Even some IFR cigs down to 700-900 ft will be possible in the first few hours of the tafs. Wrap around moisture will have an opportunity to rotate into IL on brisk west winds, before the surface and upper lows make progress to the NE. Forecast soundings are looking more pessimistic on clouds even on Friday as strato- cumulus develop in the 3500ft layer. We should remain VFR, but a bit cloudier than previous forecasts. No precip is expected, but Friday evening will see showers in N IL drop toward I-74 by midnight, or the later hours of this taf period. Winds will remain brisk from the WSW, with gusts to 22-24kt at times...mainly in response to the deepening surface low across the Great Lakes and building high pressure in the Plains. Winds should veer to the NW on Friday. Vis reductions may dip 5sm br due to saturated boundary levels, but steady winds should preclude vis dropping much lower than that the rest of tonight. Shimon && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
538 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5 RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT. IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...WITH ONLY LIGHT SURFACE WIND SHIFTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029. CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN 3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET. A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH GOOD MIXING...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE AIR MASS UNSATURATED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS IS THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST. GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE A GOOD BET LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. GFS IS WARM THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST...GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL RAIN. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. PROGGED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL...SO THE FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING POTENT. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF RAIN/NOW OVER THE CENTRAL...AND ALL RAIN FURTHER EAST. SNOW POTENTIAL NOW IS 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS. SO DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I COULDNT RULE OUT VIRGA OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT IN PLACE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 8KT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MENTZER AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
124 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN 3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET. A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE 60S BY MIDDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PARTICULAR WEATHER SYSTEM IS GROWING AS ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE SAME UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE WARM GFS AND THE MUCH COLDER EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS. AS STATED ABOVE...MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH AND TIMING IS FAIRLY GOOD. MONDAY SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE AS THE BEST DYNAMICS FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL FOR TIMING WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO LAG BY 6 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS BECAUSE THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS DEPICT A STRONG PV ANOMALY WITH TROPOPAUSE HEIGHTS DROPPING TO 400-500 MB. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN THE 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...OR MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 850 MB TEMPS SHOW A PRONOUNCED COOLING OVER THE REGION WITH THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS AS THE COOLEST SOLUTIONS. IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THE WARM GFS WITH ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE REGION SO FOR THIS PACKAGE...HAVE WEIGHTED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS. THIS IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT COOLING OF A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THIS...IT SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AND SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXITING THE AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS BAND COULD BE SNOW BASED ON MODEL INDICATIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION...A LINE FROM OBERLIN KANSAS TO CHEYENNE WELLS KANSAS...IS ADVERTISED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. HAVE CONTINUED ADVERTISING RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY DUE TO THE TEMPERATURE CONCERNS. IT IS POSSIBLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE UNDERDONE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF PRECIP AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BUT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN A COOLER SOLUTION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN PRODUCED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. I COULDNT RULE OUT VIRGA OR ISOLATED SPRINKLES AT KGLD EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL GRADIENT IN PLACE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 8KT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029. CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092. NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
318 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS... THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AS OF THEIR RESPECTIVE 0Z RUNS. THE ECMWF WAS QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...WITH THE GFS MOVING ITS COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THE ECMWF MOVING ITS FRONT AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY. AFTER INGESTING THE BLENDED MODEL DATA...MADE THE FOLLOWING MODIFICATIONS TO THE NEW FORECAST GRIDS...ADJUSTED THE MUCH SLOWER ECWMF SOLUTION ABOUT 30 PERCENT TOWARDS THE FASTER GFS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PERIOD IS SET TO START OFF DRY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...AS THE ECMWF PRODUCES A STRONG LONGER LASTING RIDGE THAT IS SLOWER TO BREAKDOWN AND MOVE EAST RELATIVE TO THE GFS. THE MODIFIED BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS SEEMED REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO. ADJUSTED THE QPF...SKY COVER AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFIED POP FORECAST. WENT WITH GENERAL 40 TO 5O POPS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND KEPT THOSE NUMBERS LOWER THAN THE SEEMINGLY TOO HIGH POPS IN BOTH SETS OF EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL JUST BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ON SUNDAY. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 60 DEGREES...WITH A PEAK IN THE WARMTH TAKING PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE BOARD. ANOTHER SMALL COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO END THE WEAK...AS A COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME VCSH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH...A BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD END TOWARD 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS... THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY SHARP AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELL TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THE TQ INDEX...WAS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT THUNDER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH THESE SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRY PERIOD UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME ON SPEED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 AN ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD END BETWEEN 08 TO 10Z FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND IMPROVING VIS...LIGHTER WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
105 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 557 FOR THE ENTIRE CWA UNTIL 6 AM EDT. A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH NO DETECTED LIGHTNING...ALTHOUGH HAVING THE RADAR APPEARANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND GUST IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH RATHER RAPIDLY EAST TO THE WV BORDER BY 4 AM EDT. DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND WE EXPECT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA TO BE UNDER THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DOWNING TREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE ARE SOME KINKS WITHING THIS LINE AND GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR A STRAY WEAK SPIN UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE GRIDS WILL UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT OBS SHORTLY. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 DID ANOTHER UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. USED THIS LINE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST WINDS AND BEST THUNDER CHANCES. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS SLICING EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST...NOW APPROACHING WESTERN KENTUCKY. AHEAD OF THIS...THE WEAKER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE BREAKING UP...CLEARING THE WAY FOR MORE BANDED CLUSTERS AND EVEN SOME LINEAR THUNDERSTORMS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...HIGH SHEAR AND PASSING 850 MB JET AT 75+ KTS... THESE HAVE THE DISTINCT POTENTIAL OF BRINGING DOWN DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND A SMALL THREAT OF SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THESE STORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND WINDS PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY FROM 04 TO 08Z. HAVE SET UP THE LATEST GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND READJUSTED THE WIND/GUST GRIDS TO BETTER FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL LINE. FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED THEM TOWARD THE LATEST CONSSHORT EXPECTING THEM TO STAY UP UNTIL THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND RAIN APPROACHES LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE NPW TO REFLECT THESE LATEST THOUGHTS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW. GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 DEEPENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...HAS ALLOWED FOR SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS RANGING IN THE 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR RANGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PLOWING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINS...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AVAILABLE NOT FAR OFF THE SURFACE...STILL EXPECT WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BETTER BANDS OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FAIRLY SHARP AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS TROUGH WILL HELL TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER THE TQ INDEX...WAS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT THUNDER. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GRAUPEL WITH THESE SHOWERS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRY PERIOD UNTIL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE MODELS START TO DIFFER SOME ON SPEED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME VCSH TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AROUND MIDNIGHT...THOUGH...A BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO AND SLOWLY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THIS BAND WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST VIS IN HEAVIER RAIN WITH A VCTS AND CB INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD END TOWARD 08Z FROM WEST TO EAST LEAVING BEHIND LIGHTER WINDS AND MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOWER CLOUDS SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK UP AND WINDS SETTLE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE AVIATION PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...JJ AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO 9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS (AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW. THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST. ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT AFTER SUNSET. UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE... INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT TIME. SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND EXPECT A MESO-LOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AT KCMX DURING THE EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND TRANSITION ALL THREE SITES TO VFR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ264>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...07 MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1206 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL BRING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HIGH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS GUST OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE WEATHER WILL COME DOWN FRIDAY MORNING BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 FORECAST ISSUES ARE FOR HIGH WIND LATE TONIGHT...AND THUNDER/RAIN THIS EVENING. WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS COULD MIX DOWN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 50 KNOTS OF WIND CLOSE TO OR IN THE MIXING LAYER. THE 12Z EURO IS A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER WITH THE SFC LOW. WENT WITH A HIGH WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SPOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. BEFORE THEN...WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DRY SLOT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT STILL SEEING DRIZZLE AND SOLID CLOUD COVER...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK NCFR COULD STILL FORM AS HINTED AT BY A FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN AND WIND THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD JUST BE A SOGGY AND MILD TIME FOR TRICK OT TREATING. THE SYNOPTIC WIND THREAT ARRIVES LATER. NO REAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL BLO MINUS 6C AND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE 50S BEFORE COOLING TO THE 40S BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI NOV 01 2013 CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT SOME IFR WILL CONTINUE IN SPOTS THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS THE LAST BATCH OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH. AFTER ABOUT 09Z...THE RAIN SHOULD HAVE SWEPT TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING BEHIND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 12-28 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FIRING UP THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. KMKG AND KGRR WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO FRIDAY MORE INTO THE 10-22 KNOT RANGE. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR GALE WARNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THE GALE WARNING WILL BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THAT TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013 SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES IN VAN BUREN COUNTY AND EXPECT ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS TONIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHARP RISES ON SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH RISES ON MANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO SHORT TERM...OSTUNO LONG TERM...LAURENS AVIATION...DUKE HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE MIDWEST OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS WILL KEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN WC WI THRU NOON ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE. ELSEWHERE...A SHRTWV MOVING SE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL ENHANCE THE OVERALL LIFT ACROSS WC/SW/SC MN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY WILL HOLD IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND KEPT THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION. CHC POPS REMAIN REASONABLE IN THE FAR SW 1/3 OF THE CWA DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH LIFT. ELSEWHERE...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT LIKELY BUT AN OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT...ENDING ANY CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WON/T CONTRIBUTE TO TOO MUCH WARMING SATURDAY...BUT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY. IT WON/T BE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FULLY MIXED AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MN. MIXING SHOULD EXTEND UP TO 850 MB WHERE TEMPS SHOULD BE +4 OR +5C BRINGING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 60S IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY. AFTER SOME STABILIZING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS FOLLOWING SUNSET...WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 2-3KFT. THUS...30-40 MPH GUSTS COULD EXTEND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS APPEAR TOO COOL SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUCH A WIND REGIME. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW OR MID 40S. THE PLAINS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH INTO MANITOBA MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION. OVERALL NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS FIRST ROUND SO KEPT POPS LOW. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS WHAT WILL BRING THE BIGGEST LONG TERM HEADACHE...SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR TO BE MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT KEY QUESTIONS REMAIN. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO OR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TO WISCONSIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. PW VALUES BETWEEN 200-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL PUSH INTO MISSOURI AND IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 50-60 KT UPGLIDE WINDS ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...THINK MDT-HVY PRECIPITATION WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RACE NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON. AS THIS PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...SOME DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED BUT WET BULB TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MAY KEEP MUCH OF IT RAIN. RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND I CANNOT REALLY ARGUE AGAINST THIS. AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...STRONGER CAA WILL BEGIN AND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW TUESDAY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. HOW MUCH PRECIP REMAINS AFTER THIS TRANSITION IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND THE LARGEST DRIVER OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW CURRENTLY LIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MN. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. TEMPS LOOK SEASONAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 RESIDUAL MOISTURE BLW 2K ACROSS WC WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE OUT OF THIS REGION BY MID/LATE MORNING. CIGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR AT KEAU BY 14-16Z...THEN VFR AFT 18Z. KRNH REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 12-1230Z. UPSTREAM MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS N/NE MN SHOULD MOVE NE OF MPX TAF SITES IN WI TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE NEXT SHRTWV DIVING SE ACROSS NORTHERN ND WILL EXPAND AN AREA OF LOW END VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KAXN/KRWF BY 18Z. STILL BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BLW 3K WILL HOLD IN EASTERN SD. LATEST RAP DOES SUPPORT THIS AREA OF LOWER CIGS EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN AFT 18Z. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY ISOLD SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND NOTHING TOO HEAVY TO LOWER VSBYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WNW/NW TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S THIS AFTN. KMSP... VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH LOWER CIGS ACROSS N/NE MN MOVING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES NE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA...THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD HOLD OFF TO THE NE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR VFR CIGS TODAY. THE SHRTWV ACROSS ND SHOULD NOT AFFECT KMSP TAF SITE AS IT MOVES SW OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WNW EARLY THIS MORNING...BECOMING MORE NW/NNW THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT. SUN...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20 KT. MON...VFR. MVFR CIGS IN -SHRA. WINDS S 15-20G30 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...BORGHOFF AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 .UPDATE: Issued at 813 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 Grids and products have been updated to reflect the slightly quicker exit of precipitation. After the rain ends across southwest IL, no further precipitation is expected for the rest of the night across the LSX CWA. Kanofsky && .SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 Focus for tonight will be pops as the upper trof moves thru the area. Upper trof just starting to enter far nwrn MO with dry slot spreading over much of the area. Vort max rounding the base of the trof now will help eject the trof ewd along with the precip. Have trended pops this eve twd the 4km local WRF and the HRRR which are in fairly good agreement along with much of the other guidance as well. These solns suggest a line of TSRA across far ern portions of the CWA with some stratiform precip behind that, but exiting the area quickly. The CWA shud be dry by 03z if not before. With clouds clearing out of the area tonight, have trended twd the cooler guidance. That said, do not anticipate temps dropping too much tonight with mixing persisting thru the night and with no substantial cooler or drier air advecting into the region. Tilly .LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 Period begins with focus on temps thru the weekend. With ample clouds expected across much of the area on Fri and with the sfc ridge building into the area on Sat, have trended twd the cooler guidance thru the weekend. Warm up shud begin on Sun as the sfc ridge starts to retreat and as the thermal ridge starts moving nwd into the area. For the extd, focus turns to pops late Mon thru Wed. Mdls have come into better agreement with trof timing and phasing. Have lowered pops on Mon and on Thurs with better agreement among mdls. Increased pops between these times where mdls were in better agreement regarding precip. Some uncertainty still remains and will continue to adjust as needed. Tilly && .AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013 VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the forecast period with clear skies and patchy cu tonight, then scattered diurnal cu and gusty west northwest surface winds on Friday. Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions are expected to dominate through the forecast period with clear skies and patchy cu tonight, then scattered diurnal cu and gusty west northwest surface winds on Friday. Glass && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ...A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND AS WE FALL BACK TO STANDARD TIME...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON SUNDAY... A 140KT JET OVER ALBERTA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN H5 TROF OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES AT 12Z. SHORTWAVE TROF ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONGER WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME SATURATION AROUND 750MB AND THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING. THE RH PROGS THROUGH TONIGHT DO BRING CONTINUED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. WITH THE H3 JET TRANSLATING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AT A QUICK SPEED AS WELL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE TREND IS FOR THE MOISTURE IS TO HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IS EXITING OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES. THE LATEST WSR- 88D SHOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS AND A POCKET OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 18Z AND BY 20Z THERE WAS A NICE ARC OF SHOWERS OVER THE MIDLANDS. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OR EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH HAVE SOME MINOR PRECIP SWINGING THROUGH AND THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE RADAR BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT FOR NOW...WILL PLAN ON A MENTION FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND OUR NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS GOOD LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. H85 WINDS OF 45 TO 55KTS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30MPH SUSTAINED...THUS HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. RH IS STILL LACKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING...SO HAVE SO LOW POPS MENTIONED. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...THE MAIN FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY ARE IN REGARDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS THE GFS WOULD INITIALLY TAKE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFT THIS BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE SWEEPING IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN ODDS TO THE EC AND FOR MOST PART GEM THAT FOR THE MOST PART KEEPS THE FRONT STATIONARY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IS SWEEPS SOUTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH OF I80 ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE POSITIVE NATURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE SUPPORT THIS IS OUR FAVORED SOLUTION AS WELL. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN 2/3RD OF THE FA WHERE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP TMPS BELOW GOING HIGHS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE FAR MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH JUST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER /I.E. BOONE...ANTELOPE...KNOX COUNTIES/ WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT AND OPEN NATURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE ENDING OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS AND BRING THE MIX OF RA/SN A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE COOLED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW GOING MOS GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH YET. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH INTERMITTENT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CEILINGS AT 5-10KFT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GET JUST A LITTLE GUSTIER YET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGIN TO SLACKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS DECREASING BELOW 10KT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ ZAPOTOCNY/BOUSTEAD/MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
130 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL AWAITING SOME OF THE HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC FOR ANY POSSIBLE TWEAKS IN TIMING...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MINOR...IF ANY. 12Z RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX STILL SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT RADAR ECHOES UNTIL THIS EVENINGS STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. CONCUR WITH SWODY1 THAT A SLIGHT RISK-WORTHY AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC AND SOME TIME WILL TELL WHAT PARTS OF THE CWA WILL QUALIFY. INITIAL SUSPICION IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WIND AND TOR PROBS LATER ON WITH COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. ROUGHLY 40 OF THE 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION LIES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE READILY CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. QUICK TORNADO SPINUPS ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES OR STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS. PREVIOUS FOLLOWS... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ARE IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE MY POPS ARE 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. COMPARED TO MY THOUGHTS BASED ON THE 00Z MODELS...THE 06Z MODELS PLUS THE LATEST SREF SLOWS THE WHOLE SYSTEM DOWN BY A FEW HOURS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM 150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400 J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO RISK IN THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS... COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80-82 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE. AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40 MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 18Z...ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS ON THE TIMING TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS...PREDOMINATELY VFR. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...LIGHT CAPE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND MODERATE BULK SHEAR IN PLACE FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG LIFTING ALONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN OCCASIONALLY FROM 4K FEET...WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT ILM WHERE INSTABILITY AND/OR LIFT MAY BE GREATEST. ONLY A TWO OR THREE HOUR WINDOW FOR THIS SCENARIO THIS EVENING...STILL UNCERTAIN AS MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND HAS NOT YET FORMED TO OUR WEST. ADDING TO TIMING DIFFICULTY IS THE FACT THAT SQUALL LINE WILL BE DECELERATING AS IT HEADS EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY...MAINLY INLAND. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...7 FT SEAS ALREADY AT MAIN BUOYS 41013 AND 41036 IN ADDITION TO 41004 FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT CWF FCST OF 5 TO 7 FT STILL HOLDING JUST FINE AND THE TWEAKS MADE TO WAVE GRIDS WILL BE TO BRING A LITTLE MORE OF THE 6FT SEAS INTO THE 20NM ZONES. LLJ/925MB FLOW PROGGED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER WATER TONIGHT INTO THE 40KT REALM. WILL EXAMINE FCST SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD INCLUDE 40KT IN GUSTS...SEEMINGLY MAINLY HINGING UPON LAPSE RATES AND THE EXTENT OF VERTICAL MIXING. PREVIOUS FOLLOWS... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE LATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43/MBB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1030 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL AWAITING SOME OF THE HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC FOR ANY POSSIBLE TWEAKS IN TIMING...BUT THEY SHOULD BE MINOR...IF ANY. 12Z RAOBS FROM CHS AND MHX STILL SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO INHIBIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT RADAR ECHOES UNTIL THIS EVENINGS STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. CONCUR WITH SWODY1 THAT A SLIGHT RISK-WORTHY AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE IS POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE SOUTHEAST/MIDATLANTIC AND SOME TIME WILL TELL WHAT PARTS OF THE CWA WILL QUALIFY. INITIAL SUSPICION IS THAT MOST OF THE AREA MAY SEE HIGHER WIND AND TOR PROBS LATER ON WITH COASTAL AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE. ROUGHLY 40 OF THE 60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION LIES IN THE LOWEST 1KM. SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A SLOWLY EASTWARD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE READILY CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. QUICK TORNADO SPINUPS ALSO SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES OR STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS. PREVIOUS FOLLOWS... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ARE IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE MY POPS ARE 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. COMPARED TO MY THOUGHTS BASED ON THE 00Z MODELS...THE 06Z MODELS PLUS THE LATEST SREF SLOWS THE WHOLE SYSTEM DOWN BY A FEW HOURS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM 150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400 J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO RISK IN THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS... COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80-82 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE. AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40 MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CLOUDY CONDITIONS...PREDOMINATELY VFR. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING...LIGHT CAPE...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND MODERATE BULK SHEER WILL PRODUCE CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN OCCASIONALLY FROM 4K FEET...WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. ONLY A TWO OR THREE HOUR WINDOW FOR THIS SCENARIO THIS EVENING. AFTER INITIAL CONVECTION EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MORNING. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...7 FT SEAS ALREADY AT MAIN BUOYS 41013 AND 41036 IN ADDITION TO 41004 FARTHER SOUTH. CURRENT CWF FCST OF 5 TO 7 FT STILL HOLDING JUST FINE AND THE TWEAKS MADE TO WAVE GRIDS WILL BE TO BRING A LITTLE MORE OF THE 6FT SEAS INTO THE 20NM ZONES. LLJ/925MB FLOW PROGGED TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER WATER TONIGHT INTO THE 40KT REALM. WILL EXAMINE FCST SOUNDINGS TO SEE IF FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD INCLUDE 40KT IN GUSTS...SEEMINGLY MAINLY HINGING UPON LAPSE RATES AND THE EXTENT OF VERTICAL MIXING. PREVIOUS FOLLOWS... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE LATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...MBB/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MY FORECAST POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ARE IN THE 60-90 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE MY POPS ARE 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. COMPARED TO MY THOUGHTS BASED ON THE 00Z MODELS...THE 06Z MODELS PLUS THE LATEST SREF SLOWS THE WHOLE SYSTEM DOWN BY A FEW HOURS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM 150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400 J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND 2 PERCENT TORNADO RISK IN THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS... COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD REACH 80-82 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE. AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40 MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 700 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE LATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
433 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM 150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400 J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS... COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE SAT MORNING. DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO AREA BEHIND THE FRONT BUT DEEP NW FLOW WITH GREATEST CAA WILL COME LATER ON SAT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS WITH ITS PASSAGE BUT THINK MOST CLOUDS AND ANY CHC OF A SPRINKLE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHERE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE. AFTER A WARM START TO THE DAY ON SAT...TEMPS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. 850 TEMPS PLUMMET THROUGH SAT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING DOWN TO 2 TO 3C BY SUN. DEWPOINT TEMPS WILL DROP OUT AS WELL WITH READING IN THE LOWER 30S BY MON MORNING. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A GOOD 10 DEGREES SAT NIGHT FROM PREVIOUS MIN TEMPS AND THEN AN ADDITIONAL DROP SUN NIGHT IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS RIGHT AROUND 40 MOST PLACES. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER A COLD START MONDAY TEMPS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MID WEEK...A MOIST ON SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A WEDGE LIKE PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY THURS. EXPECT INCREASED CHC OF PCP ON THURS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY BUT WILL MODIFY SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK. BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WITH RISING H5 HEIGHTS WILL HELP TO BRING TEMPS BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUES AND WILL REACH BACK INTO THE 70S ON WED. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD SET UP BRIEFLY BY THURS AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL HELP BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE LATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER OFF SHORE. DEEPER LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY DOWN TO 15 KTS BUT WILL SPIKE UP AGAIN WITH DEEP COLD AND DRY ADVECTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS WINDS SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY DROPPING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SAT MORNING. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT...BUT WILL BUILD AGAIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE WATERS. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AND VEER SLOWLY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REACHING DOWN FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TUES MORNING. WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15 TO 25 KTS ON MONDAY AS HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE INTO WATERS FROM THE NORTH. GRADIENT WILL BECOME MORE PINCHED MON INTO TUES AS WEDGE LIKE PATTERN SETS UP...KEEPING A PERSISTENT N-NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SCA THRESHOLDS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
327 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE LOW IS NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2.0 INCHES BY THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TO PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE...2.0 INCHES IS THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER PRECIP WATER AT CHS...AND COULD BE A RECORD NOVEMBER PW VALUE AT MHX. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED T-STORMS SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. I HAVE INCREASED POPS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INTO THE 80-100 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AFTER DARK WHERE I HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO 80-90 PERCENT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD EXCEED 1 INCH...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE CONVECTIVE TRAINING OCCURS. RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE CONFIRMING MODEL FORECASTS OF A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING OVERHEAD CURRENTLY. WINDS AT 1000 FT AGL ARE AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH 40 KNOTS MEASURED AT 2000 FT. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS LATER THIS MORNING WITH RISING TEMPERATURES...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN WITH 30-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED BY 10-11 AM. HELICITY (0-1 KM) SHOULD RANGE FROM 150-200 WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT. THESE VALUES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD END UP BEING INSTABILITY: FORECAST CAPE VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 200-400 J/KG WITH PERHAPS SOME 700 J/KG NUMBERS SHOWING UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST IF DEWPOINTS CAN SURGE INTO THE UPPER 60S. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS A "SEE TEXT" 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS... COURTESY OF TROPICAL AIR ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO +15C ARE IN THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE FOR NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAP WITH THE FIRST TOUCH OF SUNLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH 80 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND AT LEAST A FEW MILES INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COLD ADVECTION NOT REACHING THE COAST UNTIL JUST A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TONIGHT`S LOW TEMPERATURES SINCE WEAKER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT IT APPEARS LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ON THE COAST TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FA. THE DRIER AIR THROUGH THE ATM COLUMN AND THE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROF. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING ITS PASSAGE BUT TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY TO PLACE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS BEING THE MODEL RELIED UPON...MAX/MIN TEMPS FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WILL BE UTILIZED. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OUT WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE DILEMMA FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM THE EAST THUS ALLOWING MODIFICATION FROM THE GULF STREAM. THE GFS IS AND HAS BEEN FOR THAT MATTER SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING WHAT I BELIEVE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE...VERY LIGHT QPF WHICH IN REALITY IS PROBABLY A STRATUS LAYER. THE GFS IS SHOWING EIGHT MICROBARS/SECOND OF OMEGA AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL WHICH IS VERY SUSPECT. I HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH A SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WARRANTING POPS FOR THE NEW FORECAST DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONSIST OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SHOULD SWEEP EAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. A COUPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS HAVE AFFECTED THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING... AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD OCCUR DURING THE DAY. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT BUT COULD POSE A SAFETY RISK FOR MARINERS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING... AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASE LATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 FEET AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY AND 4 FT AT THE BUOY SEVERAL MILES SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND. WITH CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-7 FEET 10-20 MILES OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND AS HIGH AS 7-8 FEET OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 15-25 KT ON SATURDAY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE NNW SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO WINDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO BECOME TRULY OFFSHORE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS OF 5 TO 6 SECONDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GREET MARINERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST THAN SOUTH ALLOWING A PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. THESE ELEMENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE 2-3 FEET MUTED BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...TRA/BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1238 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WINDY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A HIGH RISK FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...A WELL-DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM FAYETTEVILLE THROUGH WHITEVILLE...TO SUNSET BEACH AND OVER 100 MILES OFFSHORE HAS TAKEN ON A LIFE OF ITS OWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ACROSS WILMINGTON IN ABOUT ONE HOUR. OTHERWISE CLOUDY SKIES...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A RECENT WIND OBSERVATION FROM SPRINGMAID PIER AT MYRTLE BEACH SHOWED 30 MPH GUSTS DEVELOPING...THEREFORE I HAVE INCREASED FORECAST WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT NEAR THE BEACHES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... A SMALL AREA OF SPRINKLES/SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE EARLIER AND FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND AT LEAST SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED THIS EVE. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL JETTING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO REMAIN DECOUPLED AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS...WE DO EXPECT IT TO TURN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED SSW TO SW WINDS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 35 MPH...HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVE...A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER TONIGHT AS COMPARED TO THU NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO CREEP HIGHER OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD TEND TO BOTTOM OUT VERY LATE THIS EVE AND THEN BEGIN TO STABILIZE IF NOT RISE A DEG OR TWO TOWARD MORNING. THIS SHOULD PUT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY N ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NEAR-TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME OCEAN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL JETTING INCREASES AND SOME OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SKIRT COASTAL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN BOTH SFC AND ALOFT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE MAIN BUT DAMPENING UPPER S/W TROF...ITS CORRESPONDING SFC LOW...AND THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS...WILL PUSH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT BECOMES SOMEWHAT DETACHED FROM THE LOW IN CANADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL SLOW THE COLD FRONTS EASTWARD PROGRESSION COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AS FLOW ALOFT TEMPORARILY BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT. THE LONGWAVE TROF ALOFT IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS WEAK MID- LEVEL S/W TROFS OR VORTS/IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH IT. THIS SHARPENING FLOW WILL AID IN FINALLY PUSHING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK SAT. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS CFP...COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS...WILL BE RELIED UPON THIS SHORT TERM PACKAGE. ONE OF THESE VORTS COULD PRODUCE A SFC LOW ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY RACING OFF TO THE NE. DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER IMPULSE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP THOSE 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WINDS...AND BRING THEM TO THE SFC AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CONVECTION THAT WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE ILM CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE FROM BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OPEN TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL ONLY INDICATE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. VARIOUS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SWATH OF 2.00 INCH PWS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FA IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL...HAVE SUFFIXED THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE HWO WILL CONTAIN THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR FRIDAY AFTN AND EVENING. AFTER THE CFP SATURDAY MORNING...WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FA. THE DRIER AIR THRU THE ATM COLUMN AND THE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROF OR SECONDARY CFP. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING ITS PASSAGE BUT TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY TO PLACE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GFS BEING THE MODEL RELIED UPON...MAX/MIN TEMPS FROM THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE WILL BE UTILIZED. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE OVERALL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS OUT WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE DILEMMA FOR THE EXTENDED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ORIENTED MORE FROM THE EAST THUS ALLOWING MODIFICATION FROM THE GULF STREAM. THE GFS IS AND HAS BEEN FOR THAT MATTER SOMEWHAT BULLISH ON DEVELOPING QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING WHAT I BELIEVE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE...VERY LIGHT QPF WHICH IN REALITY IS PROBABLY A STRATUS LAYER. THE GFS IS SHOWING EIGHT MICROBARS/SECOND OF OMEGA AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL WHICH IS VERY SUSPECT. I HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR THESE DAYS WITH A SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WARRANTING POPS FOR THE NEW FORECAST DAY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONSIST OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...EXPECT MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME MVFR STRATUS IN THE 09-12Z RANGE AND THE LOWEST CIGS INLAND. IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR KFLO/KLBT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW...AND ANY CIGS BELOW 1KFT WOULD LIKELY BE VERY TEMPO IN NATURE. HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME LIGHT -SHRA ALONG THE COAST BEFORE 12Z...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PLENTY OF RAIN TO OUR CWA LATER TODAY. THE BEST PCPN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL BE AFTER 18Z...BEGINNING AT KFLO/KLBT FOLLOWED BY THE COASTAL SITES A FEW HOURS LATER. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY CHOSE NOT TO MENTION TSTMS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS DURING THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 100 AM FRIDAY...BASED ON LATEST OBS FROM SPRINGMAID PIER AT MYRTLE BEACH (GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS) I HAVE INCREASED FORECAST NEARSHORE WIND SPEEDS TO MATCH OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE TAKEN ON A LIFE OF ITS OWN...AND SHOULD APPROACH CAPE FEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR...LATER AFFECTING THE NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTY COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 2-4 AM. SEAS ARE BUILDING DUE TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED THERE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING INCREASES UP TO 35 TO 45 KT. THESE WINDS WILL MIX MOST EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE OUTERMOST WATERS AND BEYOND WHERE WATER TEMPS HAVE NOT COOLED BELOW 70 DEGREES. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL FORECASTING SUSTAINED SSW TO SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT OVERNIGHT AND THEN FURTHER ON FRI. THE WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT BY SUNRISE. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...TIGHTENED SFC PG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL YIELD A SW WIND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN FRIDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT WITH WINDS BACKING TO S OR SSW JUST PRIOR TO THE CFP. WINDS MAY BACK TO S-SSW JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS POSSIBLY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE THAT AIDS IN A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO ITS PASSAGE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS COMPARED TO THE OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE CFP. AFTER FROPA...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W TO NW AT 15-25 KT ON SATURDAY...THEN FURTHER VEER TO THE NNW SAT NIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHTENED SFC PG AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ILM WATERS FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE IN DIRECTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 5 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO LITTLE RIVER INLET WHERE SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE DUE TO WINDS TAKING A BIT LONGER TO BECOME TRULY OFFSHORE GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE CAROLINA COASTS. WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL DOMINATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM...WITH DOMINANT PERIODS OF 5 TO 6 SECONDS. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GREET MARINERS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST THAN SOUTH ALLOWING A PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING. SPEEDS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS AS WELL. THESE ELEMENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INITIALLY BE 2-3 FEET MUTED BY THE OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS...SEAS WILL RISE TO 3-5 FEET AND POSSIBLY SOME SIX FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS TUESDAY. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD/TRA SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...BJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
208 AM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 845 PM EDT THURSDAY... UPDATE MAINLY TO REDUCE POPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER LACK OF MUCH RAINFALL ATTM GIVEN THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL SEEN ON AREA RAOBS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE WEST HEADS QUICKLY OFF TO THE NE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SHOULD SEE INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGIN TO FILL IN SHOWERS AT LEAST OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF A POTENTIAL LOW TOPPED LINE LATE THAT IS CURRENTLY WELL OFF TO THE WEST ATTM. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD PUSH TO ANY STRONGER LOW TOPPED SHOWER BAND(S) WITH BOTH THE LOCAL RNK- WRF AND HRRR NOT CROSSING THE WESTERN SLOPES UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THEREFORE ALSO PULLED BACK HIGHER POPS WEST UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CUT BACK SOME OUT EAST WHERE COULD BE EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE THE RESIDUAL LINE MAKES IT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. OTRW WINDS AHEAD OF AND WITHIN ANY DEEPER SHOWERS THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WITH EVENING RAOBS ALREADY SHOWING 50+ KTS AROUND 85H. HAVE TOYED WITH UPGRADING THE BLF/TAZEWELL REGION TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF THE HIGHER SPEEDS WHEN THE FLOW IS TURNING MORE SW DECIDED TO HOLD OFF RAMPING UP THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. HOWEVER DOES APPEAR THAT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY THE BETTER JET WILL END UP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ALSO BOOSTED SPEEDS EAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY. TEMPS LOOK TO STAY ABOUT STEADY UNDER CLOUDS AND INCREASED MIXING SO KEPT THE FAR SE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH 55-62 ELSW. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING AT THE STRONG LOW LVL JET OF 45-65 KNOTS ACROSS MS/WRN TN/WRN KY TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE COMING THROUGH ALONG A LINE OF SHOWERS. THE FLOW SUGGESTS THAT SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS RIDGES ABOVE 3000 FEET WILL MEET WIND ADVISORY LEVELS SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING ADVISORY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ENHANCED GUSTS WITH ANY BOWING POTENTIAL FROM THE SHOWERS. MODEL HELICITIES INDICATE 300-400 M2/S2 ARRIVING THIS EVENING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IN THE 0-1KM RANGE. NOT THAT CONCERNED WITH SPINUPS AND TIMING SUGGEST LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY. AM MAKING A FORECAST BASED ON NAM/ECMWF BLEND. THESE MODELS SHOWING THE FRONT ENTERING THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWING UP AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM NRN GA INTO THE VA PIEDMONT THROUGH FRI AFTN. THIS SHOULD HOLD PRECIP IN LONGER OUT EAST AND MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SO LEFT THUNDER IN THE EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS. NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH THUNDER IN THE MTNS TONIGHT. SO LOOKING AT CATEGORICAL POPS WEST BY MIDNIGHT HEADING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BEFORE DAWN...THEN DRYING WORKING INTO THE MTNS AFTER 12Z- 15Z...BUT KEEPING HIGHER CHANCE TO CAT POPS ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPS WILL KEEP LOWS MILD TONIGHT WITH MID 50S WEST TO LOWER 60S EAST...AND TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS ALOFT BUT MAINLY A DEWPOINT FRONT....SO WITH SHOWERS AROUND ESPECIALLY EAST WENT CLOSE TO MET/LOCAL MOS IN THE EAST AND LOCAL MOS WEST...WHICH COMES OUT TO LOWER 70S EAST TO MID TO UPPER 60S WEST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING ALONG WITH ANY LEFT-OVER SHOWERS ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT WEAK ONE OR MORE WEAK WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY SERVE TO HOLD CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHC OF POPS A FEW HOURS LATER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT. COLD AIR PUSH UNIMPRESSIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS ROUGHLY 3-5C BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT COOLER AIR FILTERING IN DURING THE DAY FINALLY REACHING 0C IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE TO REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM MID-50S NW TO M/U 60S FAR SOUTHEAST. THE INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GENERATE UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE WEST. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT QPF AND A DUSTING OF SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. CAN`T RULE OUR A STRAY SHOWER MAKING IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY EVENING PER LATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...BUT THIS SHOULD GO AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...SKIES CLEARING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING THERE TOO. SUNDAY LOOKS COOL BUT DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVHD...TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S...AND FALLING SHY OF NORMALS. THIS WILL SET STAGE FOR FROSTY NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH TMINS IN THE 20S/30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 400 PM EDT THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD MONDAY...THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK OCCURRING MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THICKNESSES RISE PER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA BY MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NEXT APPRECIABLE THREAT FOR PRECIP IS EXPECTED THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 155 AM EDT FRIDAY... COLD FRONT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE REACHING THE PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. VWP SHOWED A LOW LEVEL JET SHOWED A 50-60 KNOT JET AT 3000FT AGL JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL REACH KBLF AND KLWB AROUND 09Z/5AM AND PUSH EAST TO KLYH AND KDAN BY 15Z/10AM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AS WELL AS GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE WIND FORECAST AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AMOUNT OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS MORE QUESTIONABLE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY DIMINISH MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS THEN REDEVELOP FARTHER EAST...POSSIBLE EAST OF KLYH AND KDAN. EXPECTING A RETURN TO VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING WIND MOVES INTO THE AREA. UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP LOW VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN AT KLWB AND KBLF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING SATURDAY...BUT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH SCATTERED UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD OVERHEAD BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020- 022>024-032>035. NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001>003-018- 019. WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...JH/WP SHORT TERM...PC/PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AMS/JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
905 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .UPDATE... SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING AND ELONGATED SHEARED VORTICITY AXIS IS WORKING TO ERODE THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE CLOUDS ARE LINED UP ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA...AROUND SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHERN OZAUKEE COUNTY. MEANWHILE THE MORE DOMINANT CLEARING IS OCCURRING FROM MADISON ON WEST. RADAR DOES SUGGEST THERE ARE STILL SOME SPRINKLES UNDER THE CLOUDS...BUT THIS IS DECREASING WITH TIME. THE CLEARING COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL FASTER THAN EXPECTED IN A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND SHEBOYGAN. I MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE FOG AS THE DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GETTING PRETTY SMALL AND WE DON/T SEE ANY MIXY WINDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSE TO 12Z SUN. IF WE DO SEE FOG...IT WON/T LAST MUCH PAST SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/WIND WILL BE INCREASING QUICKLY BY THEN. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... SUBSIDENCE FROM A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CIGS ARE VFR...BUT THERE ARE A FEW SPOTS WHERE CIGS ARE DROPPING TO JUST BELOW MVFR LEVELS. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS CONCERN THAT WHERE WE ARE SEEING THE CLEARING... TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE GETTING NARROW AND COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...WE COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD 12Z SUN...SO ANY FOG WON/T LAST MUCH PAST SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT SUNDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE A DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE JUST TO OUR WEST OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA. THE 500MB TROUGH CAUSING THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF WI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS THROUGH...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND...ESPECIALLY EAST OF MADISON. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD AIR TROUGH ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD HANG ON AFTER 7 PM...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET SO LEFT THE EVENING WEATHER DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. 925MB TEMPS OF 0C TO 2C TONIGHT AND AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS AROUND 30...COOLEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING IN THE FAVORABLE LOW SPOTS AS WELL. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS WI ON SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS LONGER. WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM DESPITE THE SUNSHINE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT AND MON DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON MON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS POSSIBLY LEADING TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL STALL OVER SRN WI MON NT AND TUE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO WRN WI BY LATE TUE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD N-S UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING THE ROCKIES. LOW POPS TO CONTINUE MON NT INTO TUE AM DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES TO THEN INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE MILD GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION. LONG TERM... TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N-S TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AND PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WI LATE TUE NT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PWS OVER ONE INCH AND GOOD LIFT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATE WED AFTERNOON AND WED NT WITH NWLY WINDS AND COLD...DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASING. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE TROUGHS/RIDGES. A WEAK SLY SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH TEMPS AROUND NORMAL. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN WI EXCEPT IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY END BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD MORNING...EXPECT MVFR FOG IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE. MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A GALE WATCH AT THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SUN EVE THROUGH TUE MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...DAVIS TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 3 PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVING EAST. SHOWERS WERE OCCURING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN WISCONSIN STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ADVANCE EAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AS THE WESTERN WAVE MOVES INTO IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PASSES ACROSS THESE AREAS SO THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR A FEW SHOWERS. THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REGION. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 QUIET CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN CONTROL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER STAYS MIXED WE COULD SEE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING 40 MPH. HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB. 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 AS THE MEAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND RELATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL IMPACTING AVIATION. FIRST AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED UPSTREAM. CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA A NICE BREAK ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LIKELY TO BRING CEILINGS BACK INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN VFR RANGE THOUGH SO OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS MORE CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG BUT TREND TOWARDS MIDDAY SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER STEP IN THE IMPROVEMENT DIRECTION AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE WEST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1233 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSED AN AREA FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STRATUS WAS EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ALSO MOVING THROUGH AND TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS PRODUCED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING COMING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS BRINGING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION...AT MPX...925MB AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT 4C BETWEEN 12Z YESTERDAY AND 00Z...WITH READINGS OF 2C AND -1C RESPECTIVELY. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 0.5 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL START TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. GETS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONE APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. WEAK TROUGHS AS WELL AS TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL THE DECK CLEARS. REGARDING CLEARING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 800MB WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. RAP/NAM 950-900MB RH PROGS SUGGEST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WOULD BE MORE OF THE ALTOSTRATUS VARIETY AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR PRECIP. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO 2-5C...CLOUDS...PRECIP AND WIND. COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH OCCURS DURING THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...THE WESTERN U.S. GOES FROM RIDGING TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE DRAMATICALLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN U.S....INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS EJECTION TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW THE WEATHER PANS OUT. FOR THE WEEKEND...ONE MORE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 2C. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS REALLY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. 925MB SPEEDS ARE PROGGED AT 25-40 KT BY 00Z MONDAY... STRONGEST OUT WEST. THESE WINDS HELP TO BRING THE 925MB TEMPS UP TO 3-5C...AND WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.5 INCH SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE TUESDAY PER THE 01.00Z GFS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS ALSO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE 01.00Z CANADIAN ALREADY DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL MODELS SHOW...THOUGH IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THEN ON MONDAY...THE 01.00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE ONLY MODEL TO OVERSPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF...SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE REQUIRED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE RAISED CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH FURTHER INCREASES LIKELY NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTED THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY TO DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH... AIDED TOO BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO OCCUR WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 AS THE MEAN TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND RELATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION STILL IMPACTING AVIATION. FIRST AREA OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS SHIFTING EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED UPSTREAM. CLEARING CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA A NICE BREAK ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS BUT NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS LIKELY TO BRING CEILINGS BACK INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE IN VFR RANGE THOUGH SO OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME MVFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPS MORE CEILINGS AND LIGHT FOG BUT TREND TOWARDS MIDDAY SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER STEP IN THE IMPROVEMENT DIRECTION AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE WEST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
646 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSED AN AREA FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STRATUS WAS EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ALSO MOVING THROUGH AND TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS PRODUCED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING COMING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS BRINGING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION...AT MPX...925MB AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT 4C BETWEEN 12Z YESTERDAY AND 00Z...WITH READINGS OF 2C AND -1C RESPECTIVELY. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 0.5 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL START TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. GETS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONE APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. WEAK TROUGHS AS WELL AS TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL THE DECK CLEARS. REGARDING CLEARING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 800MB WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. RAP/NAM 950-900MB RH PROGS SUGGEST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WOULD BE MORE OF THE ALTOSTRATUS VARIETY AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR PRECIP. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO 2-5C...CLOUDS...PRECIP AND WIND. COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH OCCURS DURING THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...THE WESTERN U.S. GOES FROM RIDGING TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE DRAMATICALLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN U.S....INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS EJECTION TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW THE WEATHER PANS OUT. FOR THE WEEKEND...ONE MORE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 2C. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS REALLY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. 925MB SPEEDS ARE PROGGED AT 25-40 KT BY 00Z MONDAY... STRONGEST OUT WEST. THESE WINDS HELP TO BRING THE 925MB TEMPS UP TO 3-5C...AND WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.5 INCH SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE TUESDAY PER THE 01.00Z GFS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS ALSO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE 01.00Z CANADIAN ALREADY DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL MODELS SHOW...THOUGH IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THEN ON MONDAY...THE 01.00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE ONLY MODEL TO OVERSPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF...SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE REQUIRED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE RAISED CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH FURTHER INCREASES LIKELY NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTED THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY TO DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH... AIDED TOO BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO OCCUR WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MVFR AND SOME IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO ROTATES OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCT -SHRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY... DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH CIGS RISING TO VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COMBINED WITH SOME DIURNAL WARMING...WIDELY SCT -SHRA ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO START DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AND FOR SATURDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSED AN AREA FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WAS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN PERSISTENT STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS STRATUS WAS EVIDENT IN 00Z MPX AND GRB SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB. OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ALSO MOVING THROUGH AND TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK HAS PRODUCED POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. THERE IS SOME CLEARING OF THE STRATUS DECK UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH DRIER AIR PRESENT ON THE 00Z BIS/ABR SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING COMING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WAS BRINGING MORE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION...AT MPX...925MB AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPED ABOUT 4C BETWEEN 12Z YESTERDAY AND 00Z...WITH READINGS OF 2C AND -1C RESPECTIVELY. THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 0.5 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MAINTAINING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TROUGHING WILL START TO PROGRESS EAST TONIGHT AS THE RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. GETS PUSHED FURTHER INLAND. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE ONE APPROACHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z SAT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE COULD IMPACT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST DYNAMICAL FORCING AND BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STAYS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ON THE CURRENT STRATUS DECK AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SHOWERS. WEAK TROUGHS AS WELL AS TURBULENCE IN THE STRATUS DECK LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST UNTIL THE DECK CLEARS. REGARDING CLEARING...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT BELOW 800MB WILL HELP TO ADVECT THE DRIER AIR OVER THE DAKOTAS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. RAP/NAM 950-900MB RH PROGS SUGGEST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CLEAR OUT DURING THE EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WOULD BE MORE OF THE ALTOSTRATUS VARIETY AND LESS OF A CONCERN FOR PRECIP. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY DUE TO 925MB TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING TO 2-5C...CLOUDS...PRECIP AND WIND. COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS 925MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS SUNDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MAJOR CHANGES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MUCH OF WHICH OCCURS DURING THE WEEKEND. BETWEEN 12Z SATURDAY AND 00Z MONDAY...THE WESTERN U.S. GOES FROM RIDGING TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH. THE NET RESULT IS FOR 500MB HEIGHTS TO RISE DRAMATICALLY DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN U.S....INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE WESTERN TROUGH TO GRADUALLY EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THIS EJECTION TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL ON HOW THE WEATHER PANS OUT. FOR THE WEEKEND...ONE MORE SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY AS 925MB TEMPS ARE HELD DOWN TO NO MORE THAN 2C. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WINDS REALLY START TO CRANK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. 925MB SPEEDS ARE PROGGED AT 25-40 KT BY 00Z MONDAY... STRONGEST OUT WEST. THESE WINDS HELP TO BRING THE 925MB TEMPS UP TO 3-5C...AND WITH SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO PROPEL HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE TO PREVENT A WIND ADVISORY SITUATION SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA. AS WE HEAD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE GRADUALLY EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.5 INCH SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE TUESDAY PER THE 01.00Z GFS. THE INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGS UP CONCERNS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS ALSO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THE 01.00Z CANADIAN ALREADY DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT... ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL MODELS SHOW...THOUGH IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO SO. THEN ON MONDAY...THE 01.00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE ONLY MODEL TO OVERSPREAD PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. GIVEN GOOD CONTINUITY IN THE ECMWF...SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE REQUIRED. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHES. HAVE RAISED CHANCES ABOUT 10 PERCENT WITH FURTHER INCREASES LIKELY NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS. VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTED THUS NO MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN DECLINE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THAT POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY TO DRY THINGS OUT ENTIRELY. TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF EJECTING WESTERN TROUGH... AIDED TOO BY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGHER MOISTURE. CONDITIONS COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS COLD AIR FLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENT SHORTWAVE. OVERALL MUCH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS LOOKS TO OCCUR WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013 LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS - GENERALLY HOVERING NEAR 1 KFT - AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. NOT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTIONS VIA LATEST SFC OBS...OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF -DZ/-SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST WI. DON/T EXPECT FOG TO THICKEN TONIGHT...UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...AS WINDS STAY FAIRLY STIRRED OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND COULD GET A BUMP INTO VFR BY 18Z. WILL PLAY THIS MORE PESSIMISTICALLY...WAITING UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FALL/WINTER CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR HANGING ONTO LOW CIGS LONGER THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A SFC TROUGH HAVE SPARKED -DZ/-SHRA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI. RAP13/HRRR/NAM12 FAVOR THE BETTER CHANCES ALONG I-94 NORTH/EAST...BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PCPN COULD REACH KRST/KLSE. WILL ADD -DZ FOR A FEW HOURS TO THE FORECAST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A CONSOLIDATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WITH ONE FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL MERGE INTO A SPRAWLING AND STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS COINCIDES WITH A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT STARTS TO MOVE IN DURING SUNDAY IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EARLY...BEFORE THIS RIDGE BULGES NORTHWARD ATOP THE AREA MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOOKING FURTHER SOUTH IS A TUTT LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SUNDAY THAT MOVES NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO TRAIL TO THE EAST AND SE OF THIS FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY-WINDY ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHILE THE LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUPPRESSED...EVENTUALLY THERE IS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL AND STRONG NE AND EAST FLOW. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL MCINTOSH AND COASTAL LIBERTY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...THEN TO ALL OF COASTAL SE GA AND MAYBE INTO THE SHORELINE AREAS OF SOUTHERN SC ON TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AND SPREADS NORTHWARD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BEFORE WINDS RAMP UP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG PINCH-FEST DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE LOWER PRESSURES IN THE CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY STEADY STATE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS THEY CLIMB UP TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. INLAND WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AVERAGING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THE COOL ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S MOST PLACES SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE A GREATER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS FORECAST FOR ALL THREE DAYS IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST...SO FINE-TUNING MAY BE IN ORDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. A LARGE TEMP GRADIENT WILL EXIST BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT FROM INLAND TO THE COAST...WITH AS MUCH AS A 15 DEGREE SPREAD FROM PLACES ALONG THE COLDER NW TIER TO THE MILDER BARRIER ISLANDS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK EAST/NORTHEAST THURSDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STEADILY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST REGION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS...YET STILL EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE REINTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT FEATURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE THEN INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY. PREFER TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS AT THIS POINT...AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT THE FRONT COULD LOSE STRENGTH AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING ITS PROGRESSION. WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...BEFORE A COOLING TREND OCCURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW-END CHANCE OF PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... OVERNIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FROPA GIVEN THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COLD ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL JET. GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE LIKELY...MAINLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM GIVEN LATEST TRENDS PORTRAYED BY MODELS SUCH AS LOCAL WRF DATA AND THE LATEST RAP MODEL PROG OF SURGE RELATED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS. SUNDAY...A 1025 MB HIGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1029 MB HIGH DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS CONSOLIDATING CONTINENTAL HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EARLY DAY COLD ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN NORTH AND NE WINDS UP NEAR 20 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT WE/LL NEED TO RAISE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAG FOR AMZ374...BUT GIVEN THAT THE FREQUENCY OF ANY GUSTS TO 25 KT IS LIMITED WE HAVE REFRAINED AT THIS STAGE FROM DOING SO. SEAS SHOULD HOLD AT 5 FT OR LESS...ALTHOUGH A FEW 6-FOOTERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE EXTREME EAST PORTION OUTER GA WATERS LATE. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A NASTY MARINE EVENT WILL UNFOLD FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE TIME...WITH SOLID SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR...WITH EVEN A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT THAT GALES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A HUMONGOUS AND INTENSIFYING RIDGE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME LOWER PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A LARGE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WITH TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS WILL PREVAIL. GEOSTROPHIC WINDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK ARE GREATER THANH 30 OR 35 KT...WITH EVEN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OF 40 OR EVEN 45 KT TO OCCUR. SOUNDING PROFILES REVEAL A SOLID 25-30 KT WITHIN THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH EVEN A FEW LAYERS OVER 30 KT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WE FEEL HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT SCA/S WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE ATLANTIC AND FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR ON MONDAY...WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT GALES COULD BE HOISTED AT A LATER TIME. SEAS WILL STEADILY BUILD WITH THE FAVORABLE AND LONG DURATION AND LONG-TRAVELED NE TO EAST FETCH...AND WILL PEAK AT 6-9 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 10 OR 11 FT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE OR STRONG ONSHORE IS IN THE OFFING BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SOLID 3-4 MILLIBAR SPREAD WILL EXIST ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON SUNDAY AND THE UPCOMING PERIGEE ON WEDNESDAY. SO IT WILL NOT TAKE TOO MUCH OF A POSITIVE DEPARTURE TO GENERATE AT LEAST SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDES MAINLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THERE IS EVEN THE RISK OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS THERE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE AREAS OF BEACH EROSION THAT WILL OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...SEAS ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 6-9 FEET AND WITH THE CONTINUED FLOW ONSHORE BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE COULD ATTAIN 5 FEET OR GREATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE WEATHER WATCH ON POSSIBLE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FOR MARINERS NAVIGATING IN AND OUT OF HARBORS AND PORTS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST/WMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY 6-12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. IF THE FIRST SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND MAYBE SOME NORTH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. DUE TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MODELS AND MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE ALLBLEND GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF KGLD TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD CO/KS BORDER BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR SO AT KGLD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS AT KMCK. BY 00Z SFC TROUGH RETREATS WEST ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO BECOME VRB06KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST/WEST AROUND 11KTS WHILE AT KMCK THEY REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029. CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1020 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S. SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5 RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT. IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1011 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013 FOR KGLD AND KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF KGLD TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD CO/KS BORDER BY MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR SO AT KGLD...SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH SOME GUSTS AT KMCK. BY 00Z SFC TROUGH RETREATS WEST ALLOWING WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS TO BECOME VRB06KTS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WINDS AT KGLD WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST/WEST AROUND 11KTS WHILE AT KMCK THEY REMAIN LIGHT/VARIABLE. ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED...MAINLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029. CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
148 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO 9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS (AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW. THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST. ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT AFTER SUNSET. UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON). .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE... INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER. AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT TIME. SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT SUN NOV 3 2013 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. LLWS WILL DEVELOP AT IWD AND CMX THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GET GUSTY AT SAW. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY PERSIST AT SAW UNTIL LATE MORNING. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013 WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN... TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LSZ264>267. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...07 MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET. THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW 500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013 EXPECT SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN ERN ND AND RRV AND SPREAD INTO THE BEMIDJI AREA BY 16Z. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WITH OTHER SITES 25-30KTS. DIRECTION FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY AFTN IN DVL BASIN AND TOWARD EVENING IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ053. MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029>031-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
328 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW. AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN CWA DRY ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KPIR AND KMBG...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KABR AND KATY WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN AT KABR AND KATY WITH A STRONG 40 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING...BUT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. ONCE HEATING/MIXING DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND SURFACE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND PICK UP A GUST CHARACTER...THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THREAT WILL ABATE. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS. MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...PARKIN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
344 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... ONGOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. WINDS SHOULD SWING BACK AROUND TO THE SE LATER TODAY BRINGING BACK A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. TX TECH WRF AND HRRR MODELS EVEN DEPICTING SOME POPCORN SHRA AROUND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA & OFFSHORE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS THERE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MON MORNING WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT ZONE NEAR THE COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHER PW`S AND IMPULSES APPROACHING IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT...ANTICIPATE SCT POPS AREAWIDE MON AFTN INTO MIDWEEK. STILL APPEARS BEST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ON WED AS PREFRONTAL TROF & COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END WED NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY DRY SEASONABLE DAYS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 47 && .MARINE... WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE E/NE LATER TODAY WE SHOULD SEE THE GRADUAL RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED SELY WINDS MON/TUES. LEVELS COULD APP- ROACH CAUTION LEVELS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDS. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY AND/OR CAUTION FLAGS WEDS NIGHT/THURS. 41 && .AVIATION... GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF ISSUES WITH LOWER (MVFR) CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY MON MORNING HOURS...ESP- ECIALLY FOR SITES CLOSER TO THE COAST (LBX). 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 54 70 63 76 / 10 10 40 40 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 72 55 74 66 78 / 10 20 40 20 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 70 64 76 71 79 / 10 20 40 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4 INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35 KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE 03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES... GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE... GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME OF THOSE WINDS. PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES... THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT... THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY... THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY... THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE... POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013 WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND AN APPROACHING LOW. GUST APPROACHING 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KRST SUN AFTERNOON. GUSTS...BUT NOT AS STRONG...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE SUSTAINED LIKELY HOVERS NEAR 20 KTS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS SUNDAY. WITH 925 MB WINDS PROGGED TO REACH 50 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT...LLWS WILL BE A FACTOR AT BOTH KRST AND KLSE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LLWS WOULD OCCUR FROM 03-18Z MONDAY. WILL ADD TO FORECAST. AS FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS...WHICH COULD IMPACT KLSE. GOING FOR IT IS THE DECOUPLED WINDS WITH GOOD DEPTH TO THE LIGHT WIND LAYER THROUGH THE EVENING. RAP/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS POINT TO INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE NEAR SFC INVERSION OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THAT TIME...NOT SURE THIS WOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT A FOG RISK. HOWEVER...SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE ARE PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH...THIN CLOUDS WOULD BE A DAMPER ON FOG POTENTIAL. SEE A THREAT...BUT CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO THE FORECAST...YET. THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WILL LEAVE BCFG FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1002 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST MAINLY ON TRACK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY T/TD AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS/SAT/MOD DATA AND TRENDS. INCREASED CLOUDS AND EXTENDED HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO ADDED IN SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING ACROSS SOME PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HRRR STILL INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON SO KEPT THIS MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM W TO E BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE LATER THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF CAA AND A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WITH A LARGE HIGH PRES SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE W. WHAT WILL BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE IS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -8C. INLAND...WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR MANY AREAS SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A NLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH INLAND LOCATIONS WILL DECOUPLE MORE THAN THE COAST. LOWS OF 20S AND LOWER 30S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION...AND NO HIGHER THAN THE MID 30S IN MOST OF NYC. IT WILL BECOME RATHER CHILLY FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVE AND TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN REACHING THE FREEZING MARK BY LATE EVE. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR URBAN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT YET ENDED. FROST IS UNLIKELY DUE TO WINDS AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS. SUNNY SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL BE THE RULE ON MON AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL BE A GRADUALLY LIFTING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. EARLY TO MIDWEEK AND CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ALLOWING FOR THE AIR MASS TO MODERATE WITH A WARMING TREND OVERALL TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OFFSHORE AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. THIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER FOR LATER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DRYING OUT TOWARDS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH AN OSCILLATING TREND TO ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHETHER OR NOT LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE LONGEVITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS LINGERING PRECIP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES GOING INTO FRIDAY. A SCENARIO WITH LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL ENABLE FASTER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE REGION FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GENERALLY VFR...ALTHOUGH PATCHY HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS 2-3 KFT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH BKN 4-6 KFT CLOUDS SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR TONIGHT. GUSTY N WINDS AT AROUND 15 KT WITH G20-25KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. STRONGEST GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KTS. GUSTS MAY BE LOST AT TIMES IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER LIMITING MIXING. GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MON THROUGH THU... .MON THROUGH WED...PATCHY MORNING FOG TUE AND WED...OTHERWISE VFR. .THU...LOW STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST. FOR ALL WATERS...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25 KTS THIS MORNING...BUT THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON TO 15 TO 20 KTS. AS SUCH...WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT AS WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE HIGH BUILDS. BY MONDAY...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTH...AND NORTH WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NE AS THEY LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...STILL EXPECT SEAS AROUND 5 FEET FOR THE EASTERN WATERS. WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY FOR THESE EASTERN WATERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH BY MID WEEK. SPEEDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALL WATERS THURSDAY OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS FOR OCEAN SEA FORECASTS...USED A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST WAVE WATCH III DATA. SEAS BASED ON LOCAL WIND DIRECTION/SPEED CLIMATOLOGY WAS USED FOR THE WATERS SURROUNDING LONG ISLAND. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUSTY N WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME THIS AFTN BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN THIS EVE. ADDITIONALLY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE 30 PERCENT THIS AFTN. SINCE GUSTY N WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS AFTN...WILL NOT BE ISSUING AN SPS FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK. && .HYDROLOGY... MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WED. FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT... INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE THU NIGHT. GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF PRECIP SO NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXPECTED. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR CSTL FLOODING BENCHMARKS DURING THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE AT LOCATIONS ON THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WATER LEVELS WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS...SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TO THE NE ON MON THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND WILL CONTINUE. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND WILL ALSO NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE MORNING TIDE CYCLE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DAILY HIGH TIDES. && .EQUIPMENT... DUE TO INTERFERENCE ISSUES WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD EMERGENCY BROADCAST CHANNEL...THE NEW YORK CITY NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS WORKING WITH SEVERAL U.S. GOVERNMENT AGENCIES TO ISOLATE AND RESOLVE THIS TECHNICAL PROBLEM. DURING THIS TIME...THE TRANSMITTER MAY BE RETURNED TO SERVICE INTERMITTENTLY FOR USE OF THE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO DURING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATIONS...FOR ROUTINE WEEKLY TESTS OF THE WARNING SYSTEM...AND TO DETERMINE IF THE INTERFERENCE ISSUE HAS BEEN RESOLVED. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ009>011. NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ071-078>081. FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ074-177-179. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106- 108. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ353-355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
843 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE...RELATIVE DRY SLOT BEHIND MAIN SHORTWAVE HAS PUSHED ACROSS EAST IDAHO AS ADVERTISED PER WV IMAGERY. SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL WORKING THROUGH OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IR IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORKING THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING IN WESTERN IDAHO PER RADAR IMAGERY/SFC OBS...WITH TRAJECTORY TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...BREAK IN CLOUDS WORKING THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME MIXING FOR WINDS TO REGENERATE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT QUICKLY DIMINISHING. RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS LIKELY TO REACH BOTTOM END OF ADVISORY SO WILL KEEP HEADLINE GOING AS PLANNED. CLOUD COVER WORKING SOUTHEAST WILL SHUT THIS OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON SO CURRENT 2PM EXPIRATION LIKELY STILL GOOD. OTHERWISE WITH COLD POOL ALOFT AND SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...EXPECT SHOWERS TO REGNERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR HAS WEAK CONVECTION FIRING SHORTLY AFTER NOON WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH TREASURE VALLEY AT THIS TIME. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX/SKY TO MEET THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE. DMH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS PROMISED...WE ARE SEEING THE COLD FRONT AND INITIAL BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHIFTING TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDORS THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. SOME AREAS ARE SEEING GUSTS ALREADY IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING...THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE SNOW MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN THIS BAND. IN ITS WAKE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL WE GET INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN WE WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WE GET SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND THE UPPER LEVEL PART OF THIS STORM MOVES CLOSER. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS AFTER 5AM WILL RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER AND/OR WHERE HEAVIER SHOWERS FORM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN END OF THE MAGIC VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THAT UNTIL 5PM AS THE WINDS MAY REMAIN A BIT HIGHER ESPECIALLY AROUND AMERICAN FALLS...POCATELLO AND BLACKFOOT. THE WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD ALSO CREATE SOME POCKETS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT NOT ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT FOR AN ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE LOW 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. EVERYONE ELSE WILL STAY IN THE 20S AND 30S IT APPEARS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE OVERALL. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR IMPACTS RELATED TO BLOWING SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. AGAIN...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS POSSIBLY LAYING DOWN AN INCH OR TWO OF NEW SNOW. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER...LOWER VALLEYS HIGHS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S. THAT MEANS TEENS AND 20S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 10S AND 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER VALLEYS...AND MUCH COLDER AGAIN FOR TUESDAY MORNING ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES. THE MODELS ARE NOT QUITE SURE ON HOW QUICKLY TO BRING THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO EASTERN IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY. THE 0Z NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRIER WITH MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS WAS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE SREF AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. FOR NOW...WE ARE GOING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A DRY SNAKE PLAIN. MOST AREAS WILL WARM UP AROUND 5 DEGREES OVER MONDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES. THINGS WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THOUGH. KEYES LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN AREAS FAVORED BY UPSLOPE IN NORTHWEST FLOW...THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED OVER REMAINING AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE AREA. IT DOES NOT TAKE LONG FOR MODEL DIFFERENCE TO DEVELOP. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARDS A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN. BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING...THERE ARE TWO DISTURBANCES...ONE CROSSING VANCOUVER ISLAND...THE OTHER A CUT OFF CIRCULATION ABOUT 35N 135W. THE FIRST ONE IS THE DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE SECOND IS PROBABLY NOT A FACTOR FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MOST CONSISTENCY FOR THIS FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS DEAMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND ALMOST LIMITS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE AREA. THE FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MODEL APPEARS TO WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT AND RAISE SNOW LEVELS...JUST NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...QUICK MOVING AND PROBABLY NOT A LOT OF SNOW WITH IT. MODEL CONSENSUS LEANS TOWARDS DEVELOPING A NEW TROUGH AND MOVING IT INLAND ABOUT NEXT SUNDAY. RS AVIATION...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH...AND KIDA UNTIL 21Z. BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST OF WYOMING AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN AND WINDS SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH SUNSET. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY BUT NOT DIRECTLY AT TAF SITES. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. RS && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017-021. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 943 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAIN PUSH OF WIND SHOULD BE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CROSS VALLEY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WHICH MAY PREVENT WINDS FROM GETTING AS STRONG AS THEY COULD. ADVISORY AREA LOOKS FINE FOR NOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WINDS AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS. OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOK FINE ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE CLOUD AMOUNTS A BIT THIS MORNING. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET. THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW 500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS WITH KFAR AND GETTING TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ027-030-039-053. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-013>015- 022-027-029>031-040. && $$ UPDATE...GODON SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL INTO CRITERIA FOR FAR...AND CKN ALTHOUGH FOR SOME REASON GFK IS BORDERLINE. WITH 925 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KTS AND AT LEAST SOME MIXING THINK THAT MORE OF THE VALLEY COULD REACH CRITERIA SO EXPANDED NORTHWARD. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET. THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW 500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 652 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CIGS ABOVE 10000 FT. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS WITH KFAR AND GETTING TO 25 KTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ027-030-039-053. MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-013>015-022-027-029>031-040. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
946 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS UPDATE. STILL CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE DAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE AREA FOR SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS. THIS MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BUT ALL SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOCALLY...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING. AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY MOST PLACES WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RIDGING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE MVFR CIGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR AS MORNING APPROACHED. EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING. LIKELY KEEP/DEVELOP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
611 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOCALLY..OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING. AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY MOST PLACES WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. && .AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RIDGING EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT MUCH OF THE MVFR CIGS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VFR AS MORNING APPROACHED. EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE/EARLY MORNING. LIKELY KEEP/DEVELOP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
602 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY EVENING/... MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SPOTS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW THIS MORNING AND COULD SEE AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION LOCALLY..OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. THE NORTH WIND FLOW WILL TRY AND PLACE THE BEST QPF OVER THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE COUNTIES ROUGHLY AROUND THE CLEVELAND AND AKRON METRO AREAS. LATEST RADAR NOT SHOWING MORNING FLARE-UP OF LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WAS HRRR AND RUC WERE INDICATING. WILL TRIM BACK POPS, QPF, ETC. FOR THIS MORNING. AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES DRIER TODAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT HAS MAXIMIZED AT MIDDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM AROUND 40 FAR NE TO NEAR 50 FAR SW. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT AND CHANGEABLE WIND SITUATION TONIGHT WHICH SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE REMAINING CONSISTENT IN BRINGS CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD BAND OF CIRRUS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BLOCKED FROM THE AREA THRU TUE SO WILL STAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. WINDS TURNING SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMP MODERATION WITH HIGHS BY TUE BACK TO 55 TO 60 MOST PLACES. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DOES FINALLY FEED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCE SHOULD PUSH FURTHER EAST WED BUT THE BETTER PUSH WILL BE WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THERE IS SOME MODEL DIFFERENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL BE TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP POPS UP TO LIKELY MOST PLACES WED NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MODELS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE AREA AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT MODEL RUN LOOKS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH CHANCE WEST. LIKELY WILL BE DRYING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR FILLING IN WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRYS OUT THE AREA COMPLETELY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S AFTER 40S FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD SEE A SHOWER AROUND AS MODELS BOTH SHOW A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA TO START WITH IFR CIGS AT KMFD LIKELY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW OF THE VERY MOIST AIR. FLOW FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR RIDGING THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT EXPECT SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAPID DRYING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING MVFR TO BREAK ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL COULD SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AT SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAINLY MVFR TO START WITH CIGS BREAKING AND LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING TO VFR. LIKELY KEEP BKN VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WILL CAUSE CUMULUS TO REDEVELOP. LATE AFTERNOON CIGS SHOULD SCATTER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE INTO LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY TURNING WINDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO NRN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE TO SERN ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECTING A TURN TO WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. GALES NOT ANTICIPATED HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...TK MARINE...TK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW. AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN CWA DRY ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND KATY. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS. MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...PARKIN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4 INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35 KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE 03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES... GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE... GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME OF THOSE WINDS. PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES... THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT... THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY... THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY... THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE... POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-25KTS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT INTO MON. GUST APPROACHING 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KRST SUN AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DECREASE BUT GUSTINESS CONTINUING TONIGHT. WITH 925 MB WINDS SOUTH AT 50 KTS TONIGHT...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT KRST AND KLSE TONIGHT AS A HEADS-UP TO BOTH INCOMING AND DEPARTING FLIGHTS. LOOKING OFF THE BLUFF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE APPEARS TO BE A LOWER STRATUS DECK MOVING UP THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ADDED A SCT005 CLOUD LAYER TO KLSE TAF THRU 15Z. GIVEN THE INCREASING GRADIENT WINDS... REMOVED THE BCFG MENTION FROM KLSE. AFTER THAT...CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD VFR TODAY/TONIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
325 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION SEEN WITH THESE. OLD FORECAST FAVORED THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THIS LOOKS RIGHT BUT I DID RAISE THE POPS AS THE COVERAGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER THAT MAKES IT ONTO THE PLAINS...ADDED SOME LOW POPS NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A QUICK POP OF WIND BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER WYOMING WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MORE NORTHERN DIRECTION ON OUR PLAINS...LEAVING THE DENVER AREA IN A MESS. SUSPECT THE CURRENT ANTICYCLONE WILL GET WIPED OUT BY A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS THAT SWING AROUND TO EAST AGAIN PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT IT COULD JUST BE STRENGTHENED AS NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND CHEYENNE STILL WRAP AROUND AND BECOME E OR NE INTO DENVER. IN ANY EVENT THE WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED...I BLENDED IN THE LATEST NAM AND RUC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A BIT STRONGER. GUIDANCE WAS COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH LOOKS CORRECT GIVEN TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S UPSTREAM. FOR MONDAY THE IMPORTANT WORD IS DRY. THE INCOMING AIR IS PRETTY DRY...AND LIFT IS INITIALLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ONLY SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTH. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL ALSO BE RECYCLING DRY AIR TO BEGIN WITH. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS INCREASING WITH TIME...BUT ALL THIS WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY SLOW TO DEVELOP. I KEPT SOME LOW POPS UP AROUND FORT COLLINS IN CASE THE JET IS SAGGING SOUTH QUICKLY ENOUGH TO GET THEM IN A BAND...BUT DROPPED THE REST OF THE POPS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM...COMPONENTS WILL COME TOGETHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS...THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND UPWARD QG LIFT WILL INCREASING OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING EAST TUESDAY. OVERALL...MODELS HAVE DECREASED QPF AMOUNTS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE ARRIVAL. HAVE REFLECTED THESE TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. STILL EXPECT GOOD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BARELY LOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS...ABOUT 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH A FEW POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY MORE. SNOW LEVELS WILL TAKE INTO THE EVENING TO LOWER TO THE PLAINS...SO EXPECT A RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...EXPECT UP TO 2 INCHES OR LESS OVER THE METRO AREAS WITH UP TO 4 OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE BETTER LIFT WILL BE FOUND. A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH IS STILL BEING PROGGED BY THE MODELS...WHICH NEVER BODES WELL FOR THE FRONT RANGE METRO AREAS. THE WILD CARD HOWEVER IS WITH THE JET OVERHEAD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BANDING WHICH COULD PUT DOWN MUCH MORE AMOUNTS IN A SMALL AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS AND IN THE 20S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ENERGY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY TO BRING WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. MORE RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED AGAIN FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING THIS EVENING AND MAY DISRUPT THE CURRENT WIND PATTERN...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL JUST REINFORCE THE EXISTING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK DENVER CYCLONE CAUSING LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD LOWER ENOUGH TO REQUIRE INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO KDEN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL EVENING. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 ACTIVE FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS NRN UTAH THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT INTO NE UTAH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRAGGING OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING. WITH CLEARING NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST UTAH CORNER...ANY PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW...BUT POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY RAIN IN THE VALLEYS) WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FRONT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED ABOUT 1-2 HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE. USED THE TRENDS OFFERED IN THE RAP MODEL TO POPULATE THE GRIDDED POP FIELDS. PRECEDING THE FRONT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING WITH DESERT VALLEYS REACHING THE 30-35 MPH RANGE. TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD. A SHOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM RANGELY EASTWARD WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM CRAIG TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SAGS SOUTH OF THE I70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING AND MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PCPN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE GRAND MESA TO CRESTED BUTTE. ESSENTIALLY A WIND SHIFT FOLLOWED FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS LINE. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS WRN WY...CENTRAL UT DOWN INTO NV. THE NAM12 HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE FRONT SO WILL FOLLOW ITS LEAD. 06Z GUIDANCE IS A BIT WETTER THAN THE 00Z RUN BUT THE MAIN GIST REMAINS THE SAME. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH MANY AREAS SEEING BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ENTERING OUR CWA BY NOON WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALSO BRUSHES OUR EXTREME SRN ZONES. KEPT POPS DOWN SOUTH WITH VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIP ASSOD WITH FROPA UP N THIS AFTN. BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL HAVE REACHED THE BOOKCLIFFS AS INDICATED BY THICKNESS VALUES WITH FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS ALLOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FLATTOPS AND PARK/GORE RANGES. CURRENT THINKING IS A FEW INCHES AT BEST THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ABSOLUTELY NO PRECIP OVER THE CWA SO DROPPED POPS IN FORECAST SUBSTANTIALLY THOUGH DID KEEP MINIMAL CHANCES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS STRAY SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...H7 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -1C DOWN SOUTH TO -11C UP NORTH WITH MOST...IF NOT ALL... VALLEY LOCATIONS SEEING FREEZING TEMPS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A RATHER MODEST 80 JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE REMNANTS OF THE STALLED FRONT AND AS IT DOES...SOME MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTH AS INDICATED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MANY AREAS INCLUDING VALLEY LOCATIONS. TOYED WITH ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCHES WITH THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE BUT WITH CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH...OPTED FOR ONE MORE MODEL RUN FOR DAY SHIFT BEFORE PULLING ANY TRIGGERS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 STRONG SHRTWV WILL BE DIGGING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES CLIMB TO OVER 3 G/KG AND TEMPS PLUNGE INTO THE -10 TO -15 C RANGE AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT AGGRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO SETUP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY ZONES. SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO VALLEY FLOORS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DOWN INTO THE GRAND VALLEY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES LEANING TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...DROPPING AS WE WORK SOUTH. VALLEYS WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS SETTING UP ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR FROM RIFLE EAST TO VAIL. HAVE RAMPED POPS UP AND ACCUMULATIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE FORECAST AREA DRIVES INTO DRY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING WILL BRING A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH LOWER CIGS AS THIS FRONT IMPACTS KCAG...KDHN AND KSBS. FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH A WIND SHIFT...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE WILL EXIST SOUTH OF LINE FROM KCNY-KGJT-KGUC. MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF SURFACE WINDS 26025G35KT. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...PF SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...JDC AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... ..WINDY CONDITIONS WITH DANGEROUS SURF AND MODERATE BEACH EROSION EARLY/MID WEEK ALONG THE COAST... ..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MID WEEK... TONIGHT-MONDAY...TWO UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS...ONE PUSHING ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES AND ONE MOVING THRU NEW ENGLAND...WILL INTERACT WITH INDEPENDENT UPR LVL ANTICYCLONES OVER MEXICO AND THE GREATER ANTILLES TO PUT A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE H30-H20 JET STREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. THE RESULT WILL BE A PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN THAT WILL PUSH THE STRONG HI PRES EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX TO HUDSON BAY INTO THE ERN SEABOARD. WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL VEER TO THE E/NE AND FRESHEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS EWD. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST LOW LVL AIR ACRS THE CWA THAT WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE DRY/STABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BLO H85. NEAR AVG MIN TEMPS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR (M/U50S)...ARND 5F ABV AVG ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS AND THE NE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE (L/M60S). THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS SUFFICIENTLY MIXED MON AFTN TO KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO OF CLIMO AVG (U70S/L80S). LATEST SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A MARINE STRATOCU FIELD OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A MARKED DECLINE IN SKY COVER OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. SIMILAR DEARTH IN CLOUD COVER NOTED BETWEEN THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND THE SE SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS OF MID AFTN. RUC ANALYSIS DOES NOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE THRU THE H100-H70 LYR OTHER THAN AN H100-H85 LYR BAND OF 70PCT MEAN RH OFF THE NE FL COAST. AIRMASS SIMPLY APPEARS TOO DRY/STABLE TO SUPPORT OVERNIGHT POPS OUTSIDE OF THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS...AND LESS THAN 20PCT AT THAT. AS THE NE BREEZE STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS MON AFTN...A DEEPER MARINE STATOCU FIELD WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND MAY ALLOW ISOLD SHRAS TO DVLP IN THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. A FEW MAY EVEN SURVIVE THEIR TREK INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...ANY SUCH SHRAS WOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT AS A STRONG MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CAP VERTICAL MOTION BLO 10KFT. QPF BLO 0.10" AREAWIDE. THE BRISK NERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE ROUGH TO DANGEROUS SURF BY DAYBREAK MON...AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE AT THEIR ANNUAL PEAK. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA JUST YET...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN BEFORE THEY GET BETTER. WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE THAT WILL RUN CONCURRENT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFT 10Z MONDAY MORNING. (SEE MARINE SECTION). MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. BREEZY ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS... AND WINDY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BREEZY INLAND TUESDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW 850 MB...COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ADVECT A SMALL COVERAGE OF MARINE SHOWERS WELL INLAND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LINGERING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. PRIMARLY CONCERNS WILL BE ALONG THE BEACHES WHERE DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 5-6 FEET...BUT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER SETS. MDL EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LONG FETCH OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OF THE YEAR...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEA WATER ADVANCING TO NEAR THE DUNE LINE IN SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...PRIMARILY 7-10 AM EST TUE-WED...WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THE TUE MORNING TIDE. MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WITH EARLY MONDAY FORECAST PACKAGE. COASTAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES. WED-SUN...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH LOW TOPPED ATLANTIC SHOWERS. GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT RUNS INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF. THIS WILL SEND ALL OF ITS ENERGY WELL NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NE US ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRUNG OUT SURFACE FRONT WILL DRAG INTO THE FL PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH VERY LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN A RESURGENCE OF NORTHEAST FLOW AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH SPRAWLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL PEAK WED/THU IN THE MID 80S...SOME 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY NOVEMBER NORMS. MINOR POST FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S NORTH/CENTRAL CWA AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN CWA DUE TO LONG FETCH OF ONSHORE FLOW. FARTHER INLAND...MINS WILL COOL TO MID/UPPER 60S BEHIND THE FRONT FRI-SUN. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY...BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN ROUGH...ALONG WITH AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK...AND CONTINUED BEACH EROSION THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW EARLY FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BUILD SEAS AND QUICKLY RETURN COASTAL HAZARD THREATS. && .AVIATION...THRU 04/01Z...N/NE SFC WND G22-27KTS ALL SITES. BTWN 04/01Z-04/15Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060 E OF KTIX-KOBE. AFT 04/15Z...E/NE SFC WND G23-28KTS WITH SLGT CHC OF MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES. && .MARINE...TONIGHT-MONDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. A STRONG HI PRES BUILDING E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL INTERACT WITH AN INVERTED TROF OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE SRN BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10FT IN THE GULFSTREAM OVERNIGHT...THEN TO 8-10FT NEARSHORE AND UP TO 12FT IN THE GULFSTREAM BY EARLY MON AFTN. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT SCA CONFIGURATION. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY/NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LESSEN. E/SE FLOW SLACKENS SUBSTANTIALLY TO 10 KT OR LESS BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND RESURGENCE OF 20 KNOT GRADIENT FLOW RE-DEVELOPS DOWN THE COAST BEHIND THE NEXT FRONT BETWEEN ABOUT DAYBREAK AND MID DAY FRIDAY...ALONG WITH REBUILDING SEAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 78 67 81 / 20 20 20 20 MCO 58 81 64 84 / 10 20 20 20 MLB 67 79 72 82 / 20 20 20 20 VRB 68 80 72 84 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 56 79 63 82 / 10 20 20 20 SFB 59 80 64 83 / 10 20 20 20 ORL 58 80 65 83 / 10 20 20 20 FPR 68 79 71 83 / 20 20 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-ORANGE- OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ORANGE-OSCEOLA- SEMINOLE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVATION...BRAGAW LONG TERM....SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
201 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BUT REMAINS DEEP ENOUGH TO IMPACT EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO TRAILING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING WINDS ELEVATED BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED IN REGION OF DIFFUSE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN UPPER SNAKE PLAIN. SNOW FALLING IN BETWEEN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS SO DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW MUCH COULD BE ACCUMULATING UNDER THE BAND. HRRR ONLY MODEL TO HAVE A REAL HANDLE ON THIS BAND...WHICH APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND THEN SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN HIGHLANDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. SECOND BATCH OF CONVECTION LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST...AND ADDITIONAL WEAK DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPARENT OVER REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN PUSHING CURRENT SHORTWAVE PAST THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BRING A BREAK IN THE CONVECTIVE SNOWS TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER EAST WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO PANHANDLE REGION TO REINFORCE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH GFS AND NAM HOLD ON TO WEAK CONVECTION MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROUGH RAPIDLY DEEPENS THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO WYOMING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH WEAK TRANSITORY RIDGE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES EASTERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEXT FAST MOVING FEATURE. DMH .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS SLIDE THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT IN THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN THAT TIME FRAME. MODELS SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS STRONGER IN THIS SOLUTION WITH PERHAPS A RETURN TO SOME MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. GRIDS HAD POPS IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DID NOT ALTER THEM MUCH AT ALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AS NOT COLD OUTBREAKS EXPECTED. GK && .AVIATION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD HAVE IN ALL TAF SITE REGIONS. HAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT SUN WHERE CEILING DROPPED TO MVFR NEAR THE SHOWERS. MORE ENERGY FROM UPPER TROF ROTATES THROUGH REGION MONDAY AND EXPECT MORE AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS BUT UNLESS SITE UNDER SHOWER WILL BE VFR. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET. GK && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017-021. && $$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT ADVISORY. IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH. TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO NORTHWARD PLACEMENT OF WARMER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN PTYPE FORECAST AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS. OVERALL...A FEW MODELS SEEM TO BE JUMPING BETWEEN COOLER SOLUTIONS ON 00Z CYCLES AND WARMER VALUES AT 12Z (ESPECIALLY GEM). DESPITE THE VARIANCES IN IN THE INDIVIDUAL RUNS BOTH THE SREF MEAN AND CONSENSUS DATABASE REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE VALUES. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA EXPECT STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT...WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES AROUND H7 CLIMBING TO AROUND 5 G/KG ON 295 K SURFACE BY 12Z TUESDAY. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO FEED INTO AREA OF PERSISTENT FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED AROUND H7. WITH EXPECTED FORCING AND MOISTURE LINING UP WITH AREA OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY (PER MUCAPE AND THETA E LAPSE RATES) EXPECT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS AND SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT BAND ACROSS NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS SYSTEM DEPARTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF PRECIPITATION WOULD TO OCCUR AS ALL SNOW...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT LATEST DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN RAIN OR A RA/SN MIX FOR SOME TIME ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY NOT CHANGE OVER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MODEL TRENDS ARE CERTAINLY NOT ENCOURAGING FOR HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS...HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO NEARBY JET STREAKS WOULD ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY PUSH OF COOLER TEMPS SO DO NOT WANT TO TOTALLY DOWNPLAY SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA JUST YET AND WILL KEEP AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THIS LOCATION. OTHERWISE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN THE EXTENDED (WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDING PERIOD WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING. WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATING A DRY PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY GREAT PRECIP POSSIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT SEE LITTLE REASON FOR DIVERGING FROM CONSENSUS FIELDS ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING GRIDS TO LINE UP BETTER WITH VARIOUS ERRORS AND BIASES OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF KMCK...AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25KT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THIS TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND SHIFTING TO THE N-NW. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. NW WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN THE 15-25KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...JRM AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
248 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show a stream of embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the main wave positioned across the western conus. The southwesterly flow has allowed ample mid level moisture from the western coast to trail northeast across the central plains, resulting in a mid level deck of scattered to broken cloud cover this afternoon. This cloud cover however has not hindered the strong southerly winds continuing to gust to around 45 mph near the Concordia and Abilene areas, lessening between 30 and 40 mph gusts near the Manhattan and Topeka areas. Will continue with the current wind advisory through 6 PM when winds weaken below criteria. The surface trough responsible for the tight pressure gradient should shift slightly eastward into western Kansas this evening as a progressive upper shortwave trough lifts northeast through the northern plains. This should keep the gusty winds in place overnight, weakening slightly between 15 and 20 mph sustained with gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with cloud cover in the area, lows in the upper 40s will be common. In terms of precipitation, very weak echos develop per the 4 km ARW and 3 km HRRR for late this evening into the overnight hours. The NAM also hints at weak isentropic lift on the 310 and 315K surfaces as an area of weak mid level vorticity is noted across eastern areas of Kansas. The limiting factors are the lack of strong mid level forcing and dry air at the low levels with cloud bases near 10 KFT. Kept slight chances for any developing shower just in case it is able to overcome the drier air and reach the surface. Another warm Monday afternoon is in store as the weak cold front tracks southeast, weakening winds to around 10 mph along and behind the boundary. Surface high pressure builds in bringing weak cold advection into the area. Have trended highs toward 60 degrees for north central areas, warming to the lower and middle 60s for east central Kansas as southerly winds around 15 mph are maintained through mid afternoon when the boundary arrives. Conditions remain dry through the afternoon as a strong shortwave trough deepens out west, bringing increasing rain chances by Monday evening. .LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 213 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 Overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning the pattern sets up for a rainy early/mid week. By 12z Tuesday, the inverted surface trof has set up along the central and northern portions of the cwa while tropical moisture is swept northward over the central plains. Rain showers expected to lift into the southern counties in the evening and spread into Nebraska by sunrise. Not much instability to work with throughout this entire system progression, and will only carry isolated thunder as a result. Of interest is PW values which come in at 1 to near 1.5 inches by 12z Tuesday which is about 180% of normal for this time of year. Without a specific boundary or focusing mechanism in the cwa on Tuesday would anticipate the moisture and ascent to bring a broad area of moderate rain throughout the day, before the cold front associated with the upper trof sweeps through in the overnight hours. May see some pockets of heavier rain as the front moves through, but have gone with generally 1-1.5 inches across the area from evening Tuesday through Wednesday morning. EC has come in not quite as cold at 850mb as the trof passes and also not as far south. Cold temps already lagged behind the moisture and will therefore keep mention of any snow mixed in with the rain out of the forecast. Will have to see how the cold pool moves across the northern counties on Wednesday morning into afternoon as it could be cold/unstable enough to generate a few flakes. Also will expect falling temperatures on Wednesday afternoon as colder air comes in. Highs in the 50s on a rainy Tuesday afternoon will become a dry breezy 40s for Wednesday. Fortunately temperatures warm up slowly through the end of the week as zonal flow aloft returns Thursday and the lee trof/southerly surface winds return on Friday. GFS and EC differ with the strength of the shortwave that slides across the northern plains later Friday into Saturday, but with northern track have kept the warmer drier trend at this time with highs in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1106 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 VFR conditions persist with the focus being winds at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK. Strong southerly winds sustained above 20 kts with gusts near or above 30 kts are expected through 01Z. Mid level cloud cover increases aft 01z, with any developing shower to impact areas northeast of KTOP/KFOE. South to southeast winds remain above 15 kts sustained overnight before beginning to veer towards the south at KTOP/KFOE and southwest at KMHK aft 12z as a front approaches. Wind speeds remain at or above 12 kts sustained through 18Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ008>011-020>023- 034>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bowen LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Bowen
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
109 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW RIDGE OVER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS HAVE EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM KDEN TO KGLD WITH TIGHT GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. IR/VIS SATELLITE SHOWS THIN LAYER OF STRADIVARIUS WITH LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. THIS AFTERNOON...MIXING HAS BEEN MUCH BETTER FURTHER NORTH WITH CLOUDS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS JUST RECENTLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST (APPARENT AS FINE LINE ON RECENT RADAR MOVING SOUTH). BREEZY WINDS HAVE EXTENDED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS I-70 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO THE LOW 70S AT BOTH KGLD AND KITR. WHILE RH VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO WITHIN RFW CRITERIA IN SHERMAN/KIT CARSON COUNTY...TD VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...SO 3HR REQUIREMENT FOR WIND/RH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET IN THESE COUNTIES. WIND ADVISORY IS ON TRACK WITH GUSTS IN 45-49 MPH RANGE REPORTED OUTSIDE OF GOVE KANSAS AND HILL CITY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ALOFT MAY BE OCCURRING OVER NORTON/EASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES...HOWEVER SURFACE OBS HAVE YET TO SUPPORT EXPANDING CURRENT ADVISORY. IN THE NEAR TERM I WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF WIND ADVISORY AND RFW...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TIME AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH. TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY GOOD LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER THE NW PART OF THE CWA. I CONSIDERED ADDING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND 06Z...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEP SUBCLOUD DRY LAYER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANYTHING MORE THAN VIRGA AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW BL WINDS AROUND 30-35KT AND H85 WINDS 45-50KTS. IT WILL BE HARD TO MIX THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING FROM THE NW TO THE SE FROM 06Z-12Z. I INCREASED WINDS TO INCLUDE WINDY WORDING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND BRIEF NATURE I DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING AN ADVISORY. MONDAY...WITH COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH WE SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 10F TO 20F DEGREES COOLER (UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S SE). SHORTWAVE RIDGE BETWEEN EXITING SHORTWAVE AND NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...SO WITH DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS OVERHEAD I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A REPRIEVE FROM BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 210 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SET UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO PLEASANT WEATHER. LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN AND WARMER 850 MB TEMPS ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING THIS SOLUTION WITH ONLY 6-12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. IF THE FIRST SOLUTION PANS OUT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND MAYBE SOME NORTH GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. EITHER WAY...THE FRONT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR OUR WEATHER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA. DUE TO AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CANADIAN AND EUROPEAN MODELS...HAVE SIDED WITH THESE MODELS AND MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE ALLBLEND GRIDS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN NOV 3 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY AVIATION CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY NW WINDS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NORTH OF KGLD AND WEST OF KMCK...AND WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-25KT HAVE MIXED TO THE SURFACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THIS TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AND SHIFTING TO THE N-NW. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT WINDS WILL GUST IN THE 30-35KT RANGE...POSSIBLY HIGHER. NW WINDS SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN THE 15-25KT RANGE THROUGH 18Z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ027-028-041-042. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ016-029. CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ254. NE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...RRH AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WIND SPEEDS ARE UP IN ADVISORY CRITERIA NOW AND ARE EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE COUNTIES NORTH SO IT WILL COVER THE ENTIRE RED RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS ROSE QUICKLY AS THE WIND INCREASED WITH MOST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER NOW INTO THE LOW 50S. THICKER CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SO THERE MAY BE MORE FILTERED SUN THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM. WV LOOP SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS. SFC LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SD AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP. GUIDANCE IS STILL IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AROUND GRANT COUNTY...BUT DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE HIGHER WINDS GET. THE MET HAS SOME FUNNELING UP THE VALLEY WITH GFK AND CKN GETTING TO CRITERIA...WHILE THE RAP HAS HIGHER WINDS MOSTLY OVER PKD AREA. THERE WILL BE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 925MB WINDS WILL BE UP AROUND 40 KTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST AS IT COULD BE. WILL HOLD ONTO THE WIND ADVISORY THAT WE HAVE NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE ANY EXPANSIONS AFTER 12Z. HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AS THE SFC TROUGH ADVANCES INTO CENTRAL ND. CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S IN SOME AREAS EVEN WITH THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE SFC TROUGH AND A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THINK THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL STILL SEE SOME MIXING AND STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40...WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL START COOLING DOWN TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND KEPT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CWA SEEING MOSTLY THE DRY SLOT FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT LIFTS INTO CANADA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF GOOD 700MB FRONTOGENESIS GETTING GOING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM DOES NOT BREAK OUT ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF DO BUT HAVE SOME VARIATIONS ON PLACEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS AT MOST FOR MONDAY MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT WRAP AROUND WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 338 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. THE NEXT...MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FEATURES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP INTO IA AND WI. THE GFS/NAM KEEP MOST ALL OF THE PRECIP EASTWARD...AND THE TREND SEEMS TO BE IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GEM STILL HAVE PRECIP SKIRTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS FOR SNOW OVER THAT AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH NW 500MB FLOW ALOFT WITH A WEAK WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...ALBEIT A DRY ONE...AND THEN A STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY WITH PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY AS THE EC TRACKS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED WAVE ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER INTO THE MSP AREA BY SAT MORN WITH A SFC LOW AT 1004MB. THE GFS PLACES THE UPPER OPEN WAVE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SFC LOW AT 1009MB NEAR DULUTH. EC WOULD GIVE MORE QPF TO THE AREA WHEREAS THE GFS WOULD KEEP PCPN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. OVERALL A DRY...EXCEPT FOR CHC OF PCPN FRIDAY...PATTERN WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. STRONG SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AT SUNSET SWITCHING TO THE SW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-027-029- 030-039-053. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007- 013>015-022-027>031-040. && $$ UPDATE...GODON SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JR/JK AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1134 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. A STRONG SOUTH BREEZE EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST...SO WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN BAROCLINIC LEAF. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW. AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN CWA DRY ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO 45 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL- GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE. && $$ UPDATE...WISE SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...WISE WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ABERDEEN SD
1030 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .UPDATE... A STRONG SOUTH BREEZE EXTENDS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST...AND WILL INCREASE WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS EAST...SO WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALSO ON THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN BAROCLINIC LEAF. WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY ON GOING OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH THE STRONGEST BEING FELT ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE AND PACIFIC WARM FRONT MOVES EAST THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL TRANSLATE EAST TO THE PRAIRIE COTEAU REGION BY 15Z. THE RUC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS OF 70 KNOTS AT THE HALF KM LEVEL OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THANKFULLY SURFACE WINDS OFF THE RUC ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER...OR AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR WHICH LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN CWA. WITH LIMITED LLM...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LOW. AN AREA LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING FOR A WHILE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH LEADS TO A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH AS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH PCPN ONLY REACHING THE HIGHWAY 212 CORRIDOR AT BEST. VERY DRY AIR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AOA 10C SHOULD KEEP MOST THE NORTHERN CWA DRY ON TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES ZONAL TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING TO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONGOING WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND WILL JUST SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...DRAGGING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES HINT AT SOME PRECIPITATION...BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN AND REMAINS DOMINANT ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL AFFECT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING KABR...WITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS AND EASTWARD...INCLUDING KATY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 60-70KTS 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL CREATE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KABR AND KATY. LOOK FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO SUBSIDE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL- GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS. MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE. && $$ UPDATE...CONNELLY SHORT TERM...SD LONG TERM...PARKIN AVIATION...PARKIN WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1111 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UPPER RIDGING MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE FORECAST AREA LIES JUST WEST OF THE INFLECTION POINT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...RESULTING IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN COMMENCING IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS IS EVIDENT BY SOUTHERLY 925MB WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...MN AND IA. 00Z RAOBS DEPICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 1C AT GRB AND 4C AT MPX...BUT FARTHER WEST WHERE WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING...ABR...BIS AND OAX WERE ALL AROUND 10C. MOISTURE RETURN WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS BEEN MINIMAL UP TO THIS POINT...DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. RAP/GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS VALUES OF 0.25-0.4 INCHES FROM TEXAS INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MN. THE DRY AIR SEEN NICELY ON 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM OAX AND MPX HAS KEPT ANY CLOUD COVER TO CIRRUS. LATEST IR LOOP SHOWED CIRRUS STREAMING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE MARCHING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PUSHED ALONG BY A POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TOO...WHICH MEANS SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE TO INCREASE TO KEEP THINGS IN BALANCE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WIND IS OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 925MB WINDS FROM THE 03.00Z ECMWF/NAM/GFS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 20-35 KT AT 18Z...30-45 KT AT 00Z...AND HOLD BETWEEN 35-50 KT FROM 06-12Z. THE STRONGEST WINDS PRETTY MUCH AT ALL TIMES ARE INDICATED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE TO MIX UP TO THE 925MB LEVEL WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING SETS UP SOME LOW INVERSION BELOW 925MB. THUS...THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE AN OPPORTUNITY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO GET CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. MINIMUM CRITERIA IS 30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OR 45 MPH GUSTS. AFTER COORDINATION WITH MPX AND DMX...DID NOT GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AFTER SUNSET AS THE INVERSION DEVELOPS...BUT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE NEXT QUESTION IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BETWEEN 06-12Z MONDAY TO TRACK FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO INDUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-310 K SURFACES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE CORRESPONDING PRESSURE LEVELS ON THESE SURFACES ARE AT OR ABOVE 700MB. SOUNDINGS DEPICT PLENTY OF DRY AIR PERSISTING BELOW 700MB...WHILE MOISTURE AT OR ABOVE 700MB IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT SEEMS LIKELY PRECIPITATION WILL FORM GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LIFT AND HIGH BASED MOISTURE...BUT CAN IT REACH THE SURFACE. INTERESTINGLY ARW MODEL CORE MEMBERS OF THE SREF REMAIN MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NMM COUNTERPARTS IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE. THE ECMWF ALSO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WHEREAS THE 03.00Z GFS/NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE TOWARDS THE WETTER IDEA...MAINTAINING SOME 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES... GIVEN THAT THERE SEEMS TO BE A DRY BIAS IN THESE SCENARIOS WHERE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS PRESENT. SOMETHING TO WATCH TOO IS IF THE SHOWERS CAN REACH THE SURFACE... GIVEN THE STRONG 925MB WIND CORE IN PLACE...CAN THEY BRING DOWN SOME OF THOSE WINDS. PLAN ON WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THAN SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THOUGH THE WIND WILL ADD A LITTLE CHILL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 205 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGHING WILL EJECT OUT IN THE FORM OF TWO PIECES... THE FIRST PIECE ALREADY MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO AT 00Z TUESDAY. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE BULK OF THE DPVA FORCING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT 300-310K ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS THE AREA SITS IN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. SIMILAR TO LATE TONIGHT... THE QUESTION IS IF PRECIPITATION FALLING OUT OF THESE HIGHER CLOUD DECKS CAN REACH THE SURFACE. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS ON DEEPER SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA...SO HAVE RAISED CHANCES HERE TOWARDS 60. THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...CHANCES DECLINE AS THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS INCREASES. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF BY 06Z TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AT THE SURFACE TO HELP RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND LIGHTER 925MB WINDS SHOULD KEEP WINDS/GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SECOND PIECE IS REALLY THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PROGGED OVER ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS LIFT THIS SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THE TROUGH IN GENERAL PUSHES EAST ON TUESDAY... THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING THE FRONTOGENESIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS 1 INCH BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP A FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT REMAIN THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN. HAVE RAISED CHANCES EVEN MORE GIVEN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY. THE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE AND MOISTURE GET PUSHED EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE AND GENERAL UPPER TROUGH APPROACH...WHICH WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUB 0C 850MB/925MB AIR COULD ENTER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...THE COLD AIR COULD BE COMING IN AT THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION IS TAILING OFF. ADDITIONALLY... THERE ARE SIGNS WE COULD BE LOSING ICE PRODUCTION IN THE CLOUD...FAVORING RAIN. THUS...SEEMS LIKE ANY SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOW. NEVERTHELESS... THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE FLOW TO AT LEAST TURN ZONAL IF NOT HAVE RIDGING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NOW...MODELS HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM DIGGING THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INSTEAD WANT TO KEEP IT PROGRESSIVE... POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. REGARDING IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST...MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK DRY AND COOL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY APPEARS DRY FOR NOW DUE TO A DRY AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT CHANCES NEED TO BE ADDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN NOV 3 2013 WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 24 KTS AT KRST WITH GUSTS TO 34 KTS POSSIBLE. AT KLSE...WINDS WILL BE IN THE 14 TO 16 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 22 KTS POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS AT 1800FT AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT PRODUCING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS COULD MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING CEASES. PLAN ON WINDS OVERNIGHT IN THE 14 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER GUSTS DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIAL AT KRST. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS...WITH BASES RANGING FROM 15-20KFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6 KFT MONDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION...WETENKAMP