Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 11/02/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES INTO THE REST OF
THE MORNING HRS. EXPECT CONDITIONS AS LOW AS LIFR IN SOME
SPOTS...WITH SOME BREEZY SRLY WINDS. SOME TSRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THU EVENING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL IN AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS TROUGH APPROACHES
AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME
HEAVIER WITH TIME. LATEST HRRR MODELS AND INCOMING NAM AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND POINT TO A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT. FEEL
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD IN SPITE
OF ACTUAL AMOUNTS STILL NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SURGE ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE DAY TAKING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. A PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS WINDS SEEMS LIKELY BEFORE AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER
FROPA AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT THAT TIME.
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EAST LATER IN THE DAY.
OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE AND WILL LET IT
RIDE FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FCST WL CONT TO BE TNGT AND THU AS THE MUCH
DISCUSSED STORM SYS OVR THE ROCKIES HEADS EWD TNGT AND THU. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WL CONT TO ADVECT INTO THE MID SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BOTH FM THE GULF...AS WELL AS THE SUB TROPICAL JETSTREAM.
PROGGED PW/S VALUES CONT TO APCH AND/OR EXCEED 2 INCHES OVR MUCH OF
CNTRL AND SRN AR.
BULK OF THE RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN ACRS PARTS OF SRN AND NWRN AR.
RAIN COVERAGE WL CONT TO INCRS FM THE W AS THE NGT PROGRESSES...
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED TSRA. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE CONTS TO INDC
GENERALLY TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL THRU THU OVER A LARGE SWATH
OF CNTRL AND SRN AR...WITH ISOLD HIGHER AMTS ACRS SECTIONS OF SWRN
AR...ROUGHLY FM HOT TO TXK. FF WATCH ALREADY IN PLACE...BUT DID OPT
TO ADD THE REST OF THE SERN PART OF THE FA.
AS FAR AS SVR WX POTENTIAL GOES...AN ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORM CANNOT
BE DISCOUNTED OVR SWRN TNGT...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. PARAMETERS ON
THU STILL LOOK TO BE A LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SITUATION AS CLOUDS AND
ONGOING RAINFALL WL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE SOME SVR STORMS TO DVLP THU AFTN ACRS THE
ERN HALF OF AR IF THAT AREA MANAGES TO SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN AND
CLOUDS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO.
RAIN WL END FROM THE WEST THU AFTN AND THU EVENING AS A CDFNT SWEEPS
THRU...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDS TO FOLLOW. ANOTHER UPR TROF WL
SWING THRU THE REGION FRI NGT AND EARLY SAT...BRINGING WITH IT SOME
INCRS IN CLOUDS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM...BUT
WILL NOT LAST FOR LONG. THE NEXT LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE...AS MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TIMING...WITH
THE EUROPEAN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 66 73 48 71 / 100 100 10 10
CAMDEN AR 66 75 48 75 / 100 100 10 0
HARRISON AR 63 71 45 68 / 100 80 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 74 48 73 / 100 90 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 67 75 51 72 / 100 90 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 66 74 51 75 / 80 100 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 66 74 44 72 / 100 80 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 73 44 68 / 100 80 10 0
NEWPORT AR 65 73 51 70 / 100 100 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 67 74 51 74 / 90 100 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 74 45 70 / 100 80 10 0
SEARCY AR 66 74 47 70 / 100 100 10 10
STUTTGART AR 66 74 51 72 / 90 100 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-
FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1009 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1000 AM EDT...CLOUDS HAVE ENCOMPASSED THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
FOG/MIST CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WAS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS RAIN WILL REACH INTO
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY REGION AROUND NOON LOCAL TIME. THERE IS
SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP FIELD OVER SOUTHWEST NY STATE WHICH PER
THE HRRR COULD FILL IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO LITTLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. AS
FOR WIND HEADLINES...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME AS WE AWAIT FOR THE
12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS.
AS OF 645 AM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WHILE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CREPT NORTHWARD THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TODAY...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K SURFACE INCREASES.
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY NOON...WITH
LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF THE THE CAPITAL
REGION...WHERE A SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN LOW LEVEL
ASCENT.
TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT COOL EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT SHOULD WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT
APPEARS SHOWERS WILL STILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL AT LEAST BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM...THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
EXPLOSIVELY STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT BEFORE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONE...WHICH DEPICTS A 970-975 MB LOW BY FRIDAY.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THIS HAS PROMPTED UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HERKIMER...HAMILTON AND NORTHERN FULTON
COUNTIES. A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET CORE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON IN
WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH DEEP
MIXING COMMENCING. THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS HAS INCREASED ENOUGH SO THAT THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS IT APPEARS MIXING WILL BE LIMITED WITH
RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVELS DESPITE A 60-70 KT 850 MB JET MOVING
OVERHEAD LATE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO MENTION
CATEGORICAL POPS MOST OF THE NIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM. AT THE
SURFACE OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR...WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ESPECIALLY BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BY SUNRISE MOST AREAS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON FRIDAY IN MULTIPLE
PHASES. FIRST...AN OCCLUDED FRONT TRAILING FROM THE PARENT LOW IN
QUEBEC WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ONE OR MULTIPLE LOW-TOPPED
LINES OF SHOWERS TO MIX DOWN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE COVERAGE OF
ANY LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO NO
MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THE GREATER HAZARD WOULD BE
ANY STRONG WINDS THAT ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN. THE SECOND PHASE OF
POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS WILL BE IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES DUE TO DEEPER MIXING AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MAINLY EAST OF THE ARE BY THEN /EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST AREAS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WHERE THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT/...HOWEVER WIND GUSTS MAY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY OR BORDERLINE WARNING LEVELS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPIKE IN THE FEW HOURS FOLLOWING THE OCCLUDED
FRONT PASSAGE...AS DEEPER MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AIDED FURTHER IN THE HUDSON VALLEY BY A SOUTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL THINKING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S A GOOD
BET FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...WITH A
FEW MID 70S EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF AS WELL...WITH GOOD DRYING TAKING PLACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AFTER DARK FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IT WILL STILL BE
GUSTY...ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL HAVE ENDED. A
FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A DRY AND COOLER NIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN. TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH IT. HEIGHTS RISE AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WITH AN ANCHORING HIGH SETTING UP NEAR FLORIDA AS A
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SECONDARY BOUNDARY A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED
TO CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUESDAY.
SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE ON SUNDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT
THE SURFACE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE
IT WILL BE CHILLY AS BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...COLD AIR
ADVECTION...BRING IN A COLDER AIRMASS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO
UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S WITH TEENS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE LAST TIME WE HAD
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WAS BACK IN EARLY APRIL.
IT WILL BE CHILLY ON MONDAY WITH THE HIGH CRESTING OVER THE
REGION...THEN TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. SEASONABLE READING ARE ANTICIPATE TUESDAY
WITH A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE
LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE SYSTEM`S COLD
FRONT ON FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION...HOWEVER RADIATIONAL
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPED BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS CAME IN. IN
ADDITION...STRATUS HAS SPREAD NORTH UP THE HUDSON VALLEY. CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT SOME AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES BUT ONLY TO MVFR. IFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN
THE RAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE LOW LEVEL JETS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG
RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KPOU...KPSF AND KGFL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. WHILE AT KALB...SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH SOME MIXING SO LLWS NOT MENTIONED IN
TAF BUT NEEDS TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 65 AND 80
PERCENT TODAY...INCREASING TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 50 AND 65 PERCENT ON FRIDAY.
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL RIVER
AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
A STRONG SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND RECENT DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE
HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO PROBLEMS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK
RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS.
OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
038-082.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
1013 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Just made a few tweaks to the PoP grid this morning. Otherwise
current forecast remains on track. A surface cold front, currently
passing through Missouri, will continue to move southeastward
throughout the day. Ahead of the front there is an ample moisture
feed off the Gulf signified on our 12Z TAE sounding that shows
significant moisture to about 800mb. Despite the ample moisture
present, all instability and forcing dynamics are located further
west closer to the front and associated upper level low. Therefore
besides maybe a weak shower in our far western CWA, not expecting
rain today. This is confirmed with latest runs of the HRRR and our
local 4KM WRF. Otherwise for the remainder of today expect cloud
cover to increase from west to east, high temperatures in the low
to mid 80s, and winds out of the south around 15-20 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Upper ridge across the southeastern states will break down tonight
as a potent trough exits the central states. Surface ridge over
the mid-Atlantic states will retreat east as well, allowing for
increasing southerly flow across the forecast area. Narrow band of
deep layer moisture, ahead of the cold front, will push into SE
Alabama late tonight with a band of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. This band of showers and storms will push across
the remainder of the forecast area during the day on Friday before
exiting the southeastern zones early Saturday morning.
Temperatures on Friday will vary from northwest to southeast on
Friday in association with the front. Expect to see mid to upper
70s for the northwest and mid 80s over the southeast.
Models continue to show the bulk of the upper forcing and support
lifting well to the northeast of the area tonight and Friday as
the primary shortwave shears out. This will significantly limit
height falls across the region, keeping instability in check.
However, the presence of strong low- to mid-level flow (40kt deep
layer shear) may support an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm
or two, especially during the day on Friday. Overall, the severe
threat is rather small, with the SPC Day 2 outlook indicating 5
percent probs.
A cooler and drier airmass will push into the region on Saturday,
with highs in the mid to upper 70s anticipated.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Wednesday]...
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 40s Saturday and
Sunday nights with highs on Sunday mainly in the upper 60s, with
some lower 70s in the FL Big Bend. Temps will moderate early next
week as the low level flow becomes more easterly. These winds will
also increase moisture levels with low-end rain chances returning
for Tuesday and Wednesday. The next frontal system looks like it
will hold off until later next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Friday] Skies will be dominated by high clouds at
KTLH, KABY, and KVLD, while VFR low/mid clouds will be likely at
KDHN and KECP. Scattered showers will also be a possibility later
today at KDHN and KECP. Expect gusty south winds this afternoon at
all terminals, predominantly in the 20 to 25 knot range, with
isolated gusts up to 30 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong onshore flow ahead of an approaching cold front will keep
exercise caution conditions in place over the waters into tonight.
Winds may reach advisory levels on Friday as the front pushes
across the waters. Offshore flow will develop on Saturday in the
wake of the front and increase to advisory levels Saturday night.
Strong high pressure north of the waters will then headline
conditions in place through early next week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for
the foreseeable future, precluding any Red Flag conditions.
However, it should be mentioned that transport winds will be quite
high this afternoon, resulting in high dispersion indices.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A cold front will pass slowly through the region Friday through
Saturday morning. Average rainfall totals of just over an inch can
be expected across the northwestern portions of the forecast area
trending down to three quarters of an inch south and east of
Tallahassee. This will have little to no impact on area rivers and
streams as flows remain well below action stage at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 66 83 58 77 / 10 10 50 70 20
Panama City 81 72 79 61 75 / 30 20 70 60 10
Dothan 83 68 79 52 75 / 30 30 80 40 10
Albany 83 68 79 54 74 / 10 20 70 60 10
Valdosta 84 64 82 60 76 / 10 10 40 70 30
Cross City 85 64 83 66 77 / 10 10 30 60 50
Apalachicola 80 72 80 63 76 / 20 20 50 70 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Navarro/DVD
Short Term/Marine...Camp
Long Term...Wool
Aviation/Fire Wx...Harrigan
Hydrology...Lamers
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
320 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN QUESTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT. STRONG SURFACE LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST...DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE
LOW OCCLUDES. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT AFD TIME...WITH SOME PATCHY RETURNS SHOWING UP HERE AND
THERE ON RADAR. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ANYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND
FROM THESE WEAK ECHOES BUT THEIR EXISTENCE DOES LEND SOME CREDENCE
TO THE HRRR SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS ALL REALLY COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT AND IT LOOKS LIKE FOR THE MOST PART THE CWA WILL REMAIN
PRECIP-FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES NORTHWEST BUT
REALLY HAVE NOT STARTED INCREASING POPS UNTIL AFTER THAT POINT.
SHOULD ENCROACH UPON THE METRO AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...
AND TOWARDS CENTRAL GEORGIA /MACON AREA/ BY 12Z. SO TRICK-OR-
TREATING SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING.
ONTO SOME DETAILS...STARTING WITH QPF...NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT
OVERALL BASIN-AVERAGE VALUES WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AN INCH
THROUGH THE EVENT. NAM IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF VALUES
ESPECIALLY 12-18Z FRIDAY BUT IT SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED PRECIP ISSUES ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...BUT THAT
WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS.
OTHER CONCERN IS SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE...NAM IS
MORE UNSTABLE THAN OTHER GUIDANCE BUT THE GFS IS COMING IN WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MUCAPE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH OVER
700 J/KG...NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM THE NAM. EXPECT THAT ANY PRECIP
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS
SHOWERS...THOUGH DID BRING SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN STARTING AT 06Z
NORTHWEST...BUT GENERALLY ONLY WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY OR HIGHER.
SWATH OF INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE METRO AREA BY AROUND
12Z...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 18Z. SO OVERALL VERY...VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BUT WHEN CONTRASTED WITH THE VERY STRONG
SHEAR...WE CANNOT LET OUR GUARD DOWN. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BY 06Z
TONIGHT ARE OVER 40KT IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA...WITH 60-70KT 0-6KM
SHEAR. 0-1KM SHEAR DROPS OFF THROUGH TIME TO GENERALLY BELOW 35KT BY
12Z FRIDAY...AND LESS THAN 30KT BY 18Z FRIDAY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS QUITE STRONG AT OVER 60KT. SO WE HAVE A TREND OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY FROM 06-18Z FRIDAY AND DECREASING SHEAR. SOMEWHERE IN
THERE A PERFECT JUXTAPOSITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS A SEE
TEXT FOR DAY2 ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO
POINT TO FRIDAY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEING OF GREATER
CONCERN THAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHERB PARAMETER...WHICH WAS
CALIBRATED TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH SHEAR LOW
CAPE SEVERE WEATHER...IS MAXIMIZED LATE THIS EVENING IN NORTHWEST
GEORGIA WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM JUST BEFORE 18Z TOMORROW /RIGHT BEFORE
FROPA/ AROUND THE METRO AREA.
OF COURSE...ALL THAT SAID /OR WRITTEN/...OVERALL CONCERN FOR SEVERE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH. IT JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
USED A BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES BUT PULLED BACK ON BIAS ADJUSTMENT DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND IMPENDING AIRMASS CHANGE.
TDP
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE SE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISHING. UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BDL
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING TO PUSH THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING THE
LONG TERM DRY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE H5 TROUGH WILL EXIT
THE U.S. SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NEXT SYSTEM APPEAR
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF HOLDING ONTO
THE H5 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE HIGH AND
BRINGS A FAST MOVING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR TO START THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY S TO SSE WINDS. CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE ABOUT 06Z WHEN CIGS DROP TO MVFR AND SHRA MOVES IN.
CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND EXPECT IFR BY 09Z. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR
TOWARD SUNRISE BUT FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SCT004. BEST CHANCE TSRA
APPROX 15-18Z FRIDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 AT THAT POINT BUT
EXPECT RAPID CLEARING AFTER 18Z AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN SSE AND SSW BUT SHOULD BE SOLIDLY ON THE W
SIDE BY 06Z.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON ALL ELEMENTS.
TDP
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 64 70 48 69 / 100 100 10 0
ATLANTA 63 71 50 67 / 100 100 10 0
BLAIRSVILLE 58 71 43 61 / 100 80 10 20
CARTERSVILLE 65 73 44 67 / 100 70 5 0
COLUMBUS 69 73 51 72 / 90 100 10 0
GAINESVILLE 62 72 49 67 / 100 100 10 10
MACON 67 74 49 74 / 60 100 20 0
ROME 63 72 43 66 / 100 40 5 0
PEACHTREE CITY 66 72 45 69 / 100 100 10 0
VIDALIA 66 78 58 76 / 30 90 80 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...TDP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1008 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
236 PM...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BRIEF
CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
ANOTHER POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THEIR DURATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...COULD BE A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS LASTING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS WILL ONLY IMPACT FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA. CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW FALL IN TEMPS THIS
EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S/AROUND 40 BY MORNING.
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHERLY OVER THE LAKE. AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH...LAND
BREEZES WILL LIKELY ADD CONVERGENCE TO WHATEVER LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
IS STILL OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY FOCUSING A BAND OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. DURING
THIS TIME HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLY
FOR LAKE EFFECT. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE EXTENT TO
HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL STILL BE OCCURRING. MADE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS THEN TURN SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH AT LEAST SOME CLOUD COVER POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING NORTHEAST IL.
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THUS LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S/UPPER 20S LOOK ON TRACK...
AGAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKE AND CLOUD AFFECTED AREAS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. HIGH TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH MOVES OUT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD BE FOCUSED WEST OF THE CWA THOUGH WITH AN
EXPECTED WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTH...SOME
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS A
STRONG UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.25 TO 1.5 RANGE DURING THIS TIME
WITH DEWPOINTS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 50S. MODEL QPF AMOUNTS ARE
ALREADY 1 TO 2 INCHES. NOW THAT THE GROUND/SOIL IS SATURATED AND
RIVERS HAVE MORE WATER IN THEM...IF THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DOES
INDEED MATERIALIZE...COULD BE MORE FLOODING CONCERNS THAN OCCURRED
WITH THIS PREVIOUS EVENT. CMS
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN EXITING MDW NEXT HOUR.
* MVFR CIGS MAY RETURN SATURDAY MORNING.
MDB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FINALLY CLEARING THE CHICAGO METRO AND WILL
FOLLOW SUIT ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. CIGS
UNDER THE BAND HAVE FALLEN TO 1000-1500 FT WITH SOME VSBY
REDUCTION TO AROUND 5SM BUT CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AS THE RAIN
DEPARTS MDW/GYY.
MDB
FROM 00Z...
CEILING FORECAST REMAINS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING A BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP ENDING SHORTLY AT RFD.
RAIN WILL END OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AT THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP WITH SCATTERING OF THE
LOWEST CLOUDS LEAVING VARIABLE VFR CIGS ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
RAINFALL AND POINTS WEST. BASED ON SATELLITE AND UPSTREAM OBS HAVE
CARRIED A MIX OF VFR CIGS FOR THE TERMINALS BY MID EVENING WITH
THE MVFR DEPARTING TO THE EAST. MORE MVFR IS OFF TO THE NORTH
WHICH WILL WORK TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TURN NORTHERLY. ITS NOT CLEAR HOW QUICKLY
MVFR CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE OR DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING BUT IT COULD
BE JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LIFTING IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERING TOWARD EVENING IF NOT SOONER. OTHERWISE...WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY.
MDB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN EXITING MDW NEXT HOUR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR RETURNING SATURDAY MORNING...LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MDB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES...MVFR POSSIBLE BY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY...RAIN LIKELY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
MDB
&&
.MARINE...
151 PM CDT
WINDS HAVE EASED DOWN TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO VEER NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY.
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE MORE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE EAST AND THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
WEST LOOKS TO SET UP IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SOME STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 KT LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET DURING THIS
PERIOD. HOWEVER...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY.
IT APPEARS A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME AROUND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A SWITCH TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. TIMING ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 900 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
A couple of shortwaves in the 500mb flow will enhance surface
troughs across IL behind the departing surface low pressure
system. Clouds will dominate the skies across our area, with a few
breaks from time to time the rest of tonight and tomorrow. We may
even see enough lift from the upper vorticity to generate periodic
light rain showers or sprinkles tonight and Saturday. Most areas
should remain dry, but radar trends across N Missouri and S Iowa
may prompt extending the chances of sprinkles past 06z tonight. We
currently have a dry forecast for Saturday as well, and we will
leave it that way for the evening update and wait for additional
model guidance to arrive.
Chilly conditions are expected for tonight`s lows, despite the
cloud cover. Temps should drop into the upper 30s to around 40 in
most areas. Highs on Saturday will respond to the upper cold pool
and trough axis passing across IL, with temps topping our in the
lower 50s.
Winds will remain NW with some gusts tomorrow adding some Fall
chill to the air.
Updated forecast info will be available shortly. Minor changes
were made to hourly temps, dewpoints and weather grids.
Shimon
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
A shortwave currently over north central Illinois will trigger a
few sprinkles over the next couple of hours for the northern TAF
sites of PIA/BMI/CMI. The next wave of energy will be close on the
heals of the initial one, and it will provide at least thickening
cloud cover in the 5-6k ft layer, with some sprinkles possible
through 1-2 am.
We kept VFR in the forecast for all terminal sites over the next
24 hours, as forecast soundings from the RAP and 4km WRF-NMM are
in relative agreement on keeping cigs and vis in the VFR range.
Clouds will likely continue through the day tomorrow as Illinois
remains under the influence of the upper trough axis and trailing
shortwaves.
Winds will remain northwest during this taf period, with sustained
speeds up to 12-15kt by Saturday afternoon.
Shimon
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 PM CDT Fri Nov 1 2013
In the short range the main forecast issue will be lingering
clouds and a few sprinkles, followed by gradually warming
temperatures. In the longer range, the main concern will be the
likelihood of our next rain maker for Tuesday-Wednesday. The
medium range models are in remarkably good agreement, with only
minor timing issues. Thus, there is fairly high confidence in the
forecast for next week. This system could be similar to the one
that just impacted our region in that it could also have an
eastern Pacific tropical connection, translating into the
potential for another round of relatively heavy rain amounts.
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday
A series of shortwave troughs moving through the mean longwave
trough, along with cyclonic flow at the surface, will result in
periods of cloudiness in central and SE IL tonight and into
Saturday. A little extra lift with a shortwave in eastern IA could
produce some scattered sprinkles in parts of central IL this
evening as a result. The GFS model is wanting to create some light
rain in southeast IL Saturday as the shortwave energy in the
northern Plains moves toward south central IL. Cant rule out a few
sprinkles, but will leave out for now as it appears that the long
wave trough axis will swing east with this shortwave and the
surface flow will become anticyclonic. This would put better
chances for light rain well to the south and southeast of the area.
With the aforementioned trough axis moving to our east and high
pressure approaching, we should see a gradually clearing sky
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be chilly with continued low
level cold air advection. Should see the coldest temperatures
early Sunday morning with the surface ridge axis over us. Gradually
warming conditions are anticipated the rest of Sunday and Monday as
upper level ridging and a south flow at the surface develop.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday
As previously mentioned, the medium range models are in remarkable
agreement with their overall depiction of a progressive upper
level pattern. An upper trough currently in the NE Pacific is
expected to move toward the Rockies by Monday, putting the Midwest
in a southwest flow. In addition, a closed low currently about
850 miles SW of LAX and Tropical Depression 18E (eventually TS Sonia)
moving toward the tip of the Baa are expected to become absorbed
by the deepening upper trough early Monday. This will bring
tropical moisture into the mix, which could result in heavy
rainfall later Tuesday into Wednesday. Will keep an eye on these
features the next few days. For now, agree with the consistent
model solutions and WPC QPF of widespread 1-2 inch rain amounts.
There are only minor timing differences between the medium range
models with the beginning, and ending, of this rainfall event.
Will taper off the rain Wednesday night, with clearing conditions
and cooler temps for late in the week. The progressive pattern
though, should not result in any kind of deep cold air intrusion,
so readings shouldn`t be too much below seasonal normals.
Miller
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
313 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
310 PM CDT
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS FINAL DAY OF OCTOBER WERE FOCUSED
EARLY ON WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES...RAIN TIMING AND AMOUNTS...AND
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER LOOKS FAIRLY CALM
DURING THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOV BEFORE THE NEXT PRONOUNCED MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY DURING MIDWEEK.
SYNOPSIS...PROGRESSIVE AND VERY-WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE ACROSS
CENTRAL MO THIS MID-AFTERNOON WILL ROTATE EAST OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BRINGING A LARGE SCALE NEGATIVE TILT TO THE MIDWEST TROUGH
AS A WHOLE. DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM IS ENCROACHING IN ON THE AREA
WITH MODE OF RAIN ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE SHOWER-LIKE ACROSS
CENTRAL IL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. CONSOLIDATING
SURFACE LOWS OVER THE CWA ARE A RESULT OF THE DEEP UPWARD
ASCENT...AND 5-7MB/3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BE VERY NEAR A BOMB BY
DEFINITION THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DEEPENS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AND
TO 970-975MB JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AS OF 3
PM AND THIS WILL INCH EASTWARD THIS EVE...WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES
MAINLY AHEAD OF THIS WHERE OVERALL HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT/TRANSPORT REMAINS.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL JET AND DRY SLOT
ROTATE OVERHEAD...THE SHOWER MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAD BEEN A BAND OF
MORE ROBUST SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT IN CENTRAL IL WITH 30-40 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE BUT THAT HAS DISSIPATED SINCE 230 PM.
IN ADDITION...MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER
SOUTHERN IL...AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT...ALL WHICH MAY BEGIN TO
LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS
IMMEDIATELY ON THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN THE MOST PROBABLE TO
HAVE AT LEAST A LIMITED GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL. WITH SCATTERING OF
CLOUDS LOOKING HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA...THE POTENTIAL TO REALIZE LOW-LEVEL CAPE ALSO LOOKS
HIGHLY DIMINISHED. WHILE THE FRONT WILL END THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER BY 7 PM...THERE WILL LINGER A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO EARLY TO MID EVE WHERE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
AS THE PRESSURE RISES BEGIN TO BE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOWNWARD MOTION OF THE JET AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...THE
ISALLOBARIC COUPLET WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE PRONOUNCED. WHILE
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND UPSTREAM TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...EXPECT THAT HIGHER GUSTS WILL PRETTY MUCH DEVELOP
RIGHT OVER THE CWA...PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH AND EAST BY EARLY EVE.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
TEMPORARY GUST POTENTIAL AROUND 40 MPH BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM OR SO.
THE BEST CHANCES REMAIN SOUTH OF CHICAGO BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
OF THE WIND POTENTIAL REACHING THAT FAR NORTH.
FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THIS WEEKEND...WITH A COUPLE UPPER SHORT WAVES DIVING OVER
THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SO IN THE EVE. SATURATED LAYER
LOOKS SHALLOW AT FIRST BUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVE...NAMELY OVER FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN IL...IT LOOKS DEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS. SO MAINTAIN THE CHANCES WHICH
GENERALLY HAD A GOOD LOOKING ORIENTATION AND MAGNITUDE IN OUR
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S...WITH A FEW UPPER
40S NEAR THE STATE LINE.
THIS WEEKEND...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST. SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT WITH RIDGING
OVERHEAD...BUT ALL IN ALL ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL.
MTF
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR THE CWA LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THE MID RANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONING TO
BROAD TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NOAM AND A RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TO ALMOST SUMMER
TIME HEIGHTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...NEARING 590 DM. THIS WILL PUT OUR REGION INTO BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND WILL SLIDE EAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SPUR INITIALLY
WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND THEN TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING WAA AND STEADY SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MILDER
NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 4 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE PRIMARILY OVER NORTHWEST
HALF OF CWA MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FOCUSED NORTHWEST HALF ON TUESDAY...WITH THERMAL PROFILES POSSIBLY
SUPPORTIVE OF 60+ DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS THE BIGGEST PERIOD OF
CONCERN AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 TO POSSIBLY 50
KT...WITH TONGUE OF PWAT AROUND OR A BIT OVER 1.25 INCHES
TRANSPORTED OVER AREA...WHICH IS ALMOST 250% OF NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER.
EXPECTING TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM
TROUGH TO WEST LIKELY RIDING INTO AREA IN SOUTHWEST MID FLOW. STRONG
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS...AT LEAST INTO THE LOW 50S AND RISING
TEMPERATURES TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY A NICE SPRINGBOARD FOR
POSSIBLY SEEING SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS AGAIN IN SOUTHEAST HALF OF
CWA. PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLY 1 INCH PLUS RAIN EVENT.
DESPITE IT BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT...FELT THERE WAS ENOUGH AGREEMENT
AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE TO MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS IN
TUES NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PASSAGE IS...AS
LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF TRENDED FASTER. GFS ENSEMBLES KEEP SOME LOW
POPS FOR EASTERN CWA INTO THURSDAY BUT IF TREND OF OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO HAVE SURFACE HIGH OVER AREA ON THURS COME TO
FRUITION...WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO REMOVE MORNING POPS. 850 MB TEMPS
COOLING TO MID MINUS SINGLE DIGITS AND 925 MB AROUND 0C ON THURSDAY
SUPPORTS HIGHS A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN UPPER 40S.
CONFIDENCE IN SEEING RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM-HIGH.
RC
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* PERSISTENT RAIN WITH LOWER VIS DOWN TO 2 MILES IN THE HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
* PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY EARLY THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE MESSY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING.
ASIDE FROM A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS...CIGS CONTINUE TO
RESIDE BETWEEN 800 TO 1000 FEET ACROSS THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN COULD FALL TO 2 TO 3 MILES FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD IMPROVE AND RAIN WILL END BY MID TO
LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 TO 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE KRFD AREA
AROUND 20 UTC...AND AROUND 2230 TO 23 UTC AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT A RAPID WIND SHIFT OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AS WELL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 30 KT FOR A
SHORT ONE OR TWO HOUR PERIOD THIS EVENING AFTER 23 UTC. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE
SOME.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
209 PM CDT
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM THIS EVENING AS IT NEARS LAKE MICHIGAN. NO
CHANGES TO THE GOING HEADLINES OF GALES FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE AND
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.
AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING
AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN. AS THE LOW QUICKLY INTENSIFIES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL ALSO TIGHTEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN GALES
DEVELOPING WITH NEARLY 40-44KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN FROM THE WEST. TIMING CONTINUES TO BE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SLIDES NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN LAKE HURON INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
QUEBEC FRI AFTN/EVE. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE
FRI MORNING...WITH GALES ENDING BY MID-MORNING FRI.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WESTERLY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ARRIVES FRI EVE...THEN WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY. A BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS FOR SAT. THE GRADIENT DOESN/T COMPLETELY GO
AWAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING ARND 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT OVER
THE OPEN WATERS. THEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST AND STRETCHES
TO COVER LAKE MICHIGAN SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS. THE WEATHER REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER STRONG STORM
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IN GALES TONIGHT/FRI MORNING...HIGH.
BEACHLER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM
THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 10 AM
FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1251 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
1210 PM CDT
SOME CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST POPS/THUNDER CHANCES/QPF THROUGH
EARLY...WITH THE MOST MAJOR TO ADD INCREASED WIND GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE. THERE REMAINS SOME CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA...NAMELY BETWEEN
3 AND 7 PM. DID EXTEND COVERAGE OF CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH MID-EVE
WITH A TREND FOR A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF RAIN FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE CWA.
DYNAMIC UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH 200M UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
THIS MORNING IS ENTERING WESTERN MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS IS A
POTENT ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET. NUMEROUS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO BE
SEEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WHICH CONTINUE TO CAUSE BLOSSOMING OF RAIN
AREAS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH AT TIMES SOME HEAVIER AXES. THE DRY
SLOT IS RACING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SHOULD ARRIVE ATOP
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 3 PM. TWO SURFACE LOWS
ARE NOTED NEAR THE SAME MAGNITUDE RIGHT NOW WITH ONE IN WI AND
POSSIBLY A MORE PROBLEMATIC ONE ENTERING WEST CENTRAL IL IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY WAVE ENTERING MO. THE COLD FRONT
CONNECTS THE TWO AND IS INCHING EASTWARD. THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR
IS CATEGORIZED BY LOW MID 60S TEMPS OVER LOW 60S DEW POINTS.
SOUTHERLY GUSTS HAVE STARTED TO SHOW UP IN RESPONSE TO THE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL IL...WITH GUSTS INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
WHILE WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH THUNDER THUS FAR...COULD FORESEE AN
UPTICK ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE DRY
SLOT BEGINS TO MOVE IN AND LOW-LEVEL CAPE IS REALIZED AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS INDICATING DEEPER CLOUDS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THAT LOW...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONG MID-
LEVEL JET. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE FROM 12Z OVERALL CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA IS MOST FAVORED FOR SOME
OF THIS. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SCATTERING MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THIS
FAR NORTH...WHICH WOULD ENABLE AREAS TO GET FIRMLY INTO THE MID
60S AND INCREASE THAT LOW-LEVEL CAPE /AS WELL AS THE EFFECTIVENESS
OF THE MODEST TO HIGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/. STILL...A CHANCE FOR SOME
GUSTIER STORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXISTS...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY LOW-OPPED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SURFACE WIND FIELD AHEAD OF
THIS SECONDARY LOW AS SOME MINOR BACKING HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. WHILE NO GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS TO CONTINUE OR TO
BACK FURTHER...COULD FORESEE THAT HAPPENING IF THE LOW DEEPENS
MORE RAPIDLY AND MORE WARMING OCCURS IN ADVANCE. OVERALL THAT
COULD INCREASE THE SMALL CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT THAT THESE
DYNAMIC EARLY COOL SEASON-ESQUE SYSTEMS CAN BRING.
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS A DECENT
SETUP FOR A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS. A STRONG
ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT WILL BE DEVELOPING DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW
PROJECTION TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN...AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RAPIDLY
STEEPEN. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE NOSE OF THE DRY
SLOT...OR STING...A SYNOPTIC AREA THAT CAN INDUCE HIGHER WINDS TO
BE REALIZED AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. SO HAVE ADDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR 40 MPH GUSTS INTO THE EARLY EVE
FORECAST...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 WHERE
PARAMETERS ARE OVERLAPPING.
MTF
//PREV DISCUSSION...
402 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE FOCUSED ON ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH DEEPENING
AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL SMALLER MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVES EMERGING AHEAD OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAVE PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE
LAST EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SWATHS OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH WAS SOUTH OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY...AS CURRENT SHORT WAVE
AND THEN STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. THESE IN COMBINATION
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE...ARW/NMM/HRRR ETC...INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FOCUSED RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
AFTER PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING LULL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS AND STRONG/PERSISTENT FORCING...AM CONCERNED THAT AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES
ON SMALLER TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS. HOWEVER...SINCE RAINFALL WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER 24 HOURS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON A FLOOD WATCH. WILL HOWEVER ISSUE AN ESF/HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
ADDRESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANTICIPATED EFFECTS.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER THE PLAINS. COUPLED WITH 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND 850 MB...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
70-80 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING DUE TO MOIST FLOW/CLOUDS
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS AND PLENTY OF MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH A CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO
THREAT EXISTS AS WELL WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A SLGT RISK
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY THIS EVENING... THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A TIME AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.
COOLER WEATHER THEN RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY TO BRING A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STRONGER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER 60S TODAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20S WEST OF CHICAGO...WHERE
CLEARING SKIES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS AND
MILDER TEMPS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING UP THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
* PERSISTENT RAIN RETURNING FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LOWER VIS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN.
* ISOL/SCT THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
* PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
KJB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE MESSY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING.
ASIDE FROM A FEW BRIEF BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS...CIGS CONTINUE TO
RESIDE BETWEEN 800 TO 1000 FEET ACROSS THE AIRSPACE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN COULD FALL TO 2 TO 3 MILES FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD IMPROVE AND RAIN WILL END BY MID TO
LATE EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 7 TO 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE KRFD AREA
AROUND 20 UTC...AND AROUND 2230 TO 23 UTC AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES.
ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...EXPECT A RAPID WIND SHIFT OUT OF
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS AS WELL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EVEN EXCEED 30 KT FOR A
SHORT ONE OR TWO HOUR PERIOD THIS EVENING AFTER 23 UTC. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WIND GUSTS WILL ABATE
SOME.
KJB
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.
KJB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
702 AM CDT
STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AND THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHILE DEEPENING....WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE
LAKE. ALTHOUGH AS THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...IT WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE LAKE. EXPECT GALES TO 35 KT TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND THEN TO 40 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONGER INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...4 PM THURSDAY TO
10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1027 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Widespread showers continuing over all of the CWA this morning,
although a narrow dry slot in the St Louis area is trying to move
in. Latest surface observations show the cold front along the
Illinois/Iowa border extending southwest into southeast Kansas.
Latest HRRR shows the front near the I-57 corridor by 00Z, with a
narrow line of convection firing along it early this afternoon.
Southeast half of the forecast area remains in the slight risk for
severe weather this afternoon, but areas along/east of I-57 may
see the best shot of any damaging winds. Temperatures across the
northwest CWA will be falling later this afternoon behind the
front, but should still reach the mid to upper 60s in most areas
ahead of it.
Updated zones/grids have been sent. These mainly adjusted the
hourly temperature trends. Also did some tweaks to the rain trends
this evening behind the front.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1226 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Main concern with the TAF`s will be with the period through about
02Z. Cold front currently located from near KGBG-KJEF will be
pushing eastward through the afternoon. Besides the widespread
showers, a narrow band of convection has been increasing
immediately along the front from southeast of KUIN into the
western St. Louis metro. This will be most likely to affect areas
from KSPI-KCMI through mid to late afternoon. Ceilings have
largely been around 500 feet or so, but visible satellite imagery
showing some clouds across western Illinois briefly poking above
3000 feet. Think the more likely period for any substantial VFR
conditions to arrive will be by mid to late evening. Highest winds
through this afternoon will be near KCMI with gusts of 25 knots or
so, with gusts briefly subsiding over central Illinois with the
frontal passage. However, additional gusts of 15-20 knots likely
for a few hours following the front.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 237 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
Periods of rain will persist across central Illinois today, as a
moist southwesterly flow continues ahead of a slowly approaching
cold front. Boundary will reach the I-55 corridor by around
midday, then will push into western Indiana by early evening. Main
question of the day will be if any severe weather will develop
ahead of the front this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings
continue to show a saturated and rather stable warm sector:
however, latest run of the NAM suggests a weak surface wave riding
northeastward along the boundary may pull a slightly more unstable
airmass into east-central and southeast Illinois later today. This
added instability will combine with impressive 0-6km shear values
of 80 to 90kt to potentially produce a few strong to severe
storms. 4km WRF-NMM hints at a possible narrow squall line ahead of
the front between 2 PM and 8 PM, mainly along/east of I-57. As a
result, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked much of
east-central and southeast Illinois for a slight risk of severe.
Any storms that develop will push into Indiana after 8 PM:
however, scattered showers will persist further west through the
evening hours. Total rainfall today into this evening will
generally range from 1 to 1.50, but will be higher within stronger
storms.
Partly to mostly sunny skies and cooler conditions can be expected
on Friday in the wake of the departing cold front. High
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than today, ranging
from the middle 50s far north to the lower 60s south of I-70.
Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon/evening, as a
short-wave digs southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This
feature will carve a trough across the Great Lakes Friday night
into Saturday. Models continue to produce a few light showers
beneath this feature, mainly across northern Illinois into
north-central Indiana. As a result, will maintain a cool/dry
forecast across central Illinois through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure will provide continued cool/dry weather for Sunday
and Monday before the next system begins to approach from the west
by Tuesday. Significant model spread exists concerning speed of
system, mainly due to varying strengths of blocking upper ridge
progged to develop in the southeast U.S. ECMWF is indicating an
unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high building over the Carolinas
early next week, which slows the eastward progression of an upper
wave and associated cold front across the central CONUS. This
solution would bring an extended period of rain chances to central
Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both the GFS
and GEM are slightly weaker with the Carolinas high and thus bring
the Plains system eastward through the region a bit faster. Rain
chances with this solution would generally be confined to just
Tuesday and Wednesday. Whichever solution eventually pans out, it
appears another period of beneficial rainfall is likely early next
week. Have included PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday, hitting rain
chances hardest across the entire area on Wednesday. After a
chilly weekend, temps will return to near normal in the upper
50s/lower 60s next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1103 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
402 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING ARE FOCUSED ON ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH DEEPENING
AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WARM FRONT HAS DEVELOPED
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY MILD/MOIST AIR MASS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL SMALLER MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVES EMERGING AHEAD OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW HAVE PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE
LAST EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SWATHS OF 2+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHICH WAS SOUTH OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY...AS CURRENT SHORT WAVE
AND THEN STRONGER UPSTREAM WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. THESE IN COMBINATION
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING
GUIDANCE...ARW/NMM/HRRR ETC...INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FOCUSED RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDER
AFTER PERHAPS AN EARLY MORNING LULL. WITH THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR
MASS AND STRONG/PERSISTENT FORCING...AM CONCERNED THAT AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES
ON SMALLER TRIBUTARIES AND CREEKS. HOWEVER...SINCE RAINFALL WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER 24 HOURS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ON A FLOOD WATCH. WILL HOWEVER ISSUE AN ESF/HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO
ADDRESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANTICIPATED EFFECTS.
OTHER CONCERN IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
STRONGER SHORT WAVE NOW OVER THE PLAINS. COUPLED WITH 50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET STREAK AROUND 850 MB...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
70-80 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WHILE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING DUE TO MOIST FLOW/CLOUDS
THERE APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS AND PLENTY OF MOMENTUM JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THOUGH A CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO
THREAT EXISTS AS WELL WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND MOIST
LOW LEVELS. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR A SLGT RISK
OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY THIS EVENING... THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR A TIME AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. PRECIP SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN NORTHWEST INDIANA.
COOLER WEATHER THEN RETURNS LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY TO BRING A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY STRATOCU AND A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STRONGER WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER 60S TODAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FOR THE WEEKEND. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20S WEST OF CHICAGO...WHERE
CLEARING SKIES AND THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SOUTH WINDS AND
MILDER TEMPS AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 50S. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING UP THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* PERIODS OF IFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY.
* PERSISTENT RAIN RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER VIS IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN.
* ISOL/SCT THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
* PERIOD OF VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS BY EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
LOWER CEILINGS REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH TERMINALS REPORTING LOW END MVFR OR IFR AT THIS HOUR. ANY LOW
END MVFR IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR WILL BE REPLACED WITH IFR CEILINGS
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE REMOVED
THE LIFR CEILINGS IN THE TAF WITH ANY OF THESE CONDITIONS ONLY
BEING OBSERVED UNDER TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN IOWA. THIS TROUGH
AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND THINK THAT BY THE
TIME THIS MOVES OVERHEAD...SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INTO THE IFR
RANGE WILL HAVE OCCURRED. ITS NOT UNTIL FROPA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THAT ANY IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE LIKELY. AREA OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
EXITING NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED BEFORE
UPSTREAM RAIN MOVES BACK OVERHEAD BY MID DAY. CONTINUED RAIN IS
EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME THAT ISOL/SCT THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE LEFT OUT ANY
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE OBSERVED FORM MOST OF TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWEST
AND THEN WEST WITH FROPA...WITH WINDS ALSO BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH RAIN TODAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ/KB
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
FRIDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
702 AM CDT
STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH GALES LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE AND THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHILE DEEPENING....WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE
LAKE. ALTHOUGH AS THIS LOW CONTINUES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...IT WILL
FURTHER DEEPEN WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE LAKE. EXPECT GALES TO 35 KT TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND THEN TO 40 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONGER INTO SATURDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...9 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM
FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM
FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...4 PM THURSDAY TO
10 AM FRIDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1028 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1027 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Widespread showers continuing over all of the CWA this morning,
although a narrow dry slot in the St Louis area is trying to move
in. Latest surface observations show the cold front along the
Illinois/Iowa border extending southwest into southeast Kansas.
Latest HRRR shows the front near the I-57 corridor by 00Z, with a
narrow line of convection firing along it early this afternoon.
Southeast half of the forecast area remains in the slight risk for
severe weather this afternoon, but areas along/east of I-57 may
see the best shot of any damaging winds. Temperatures across the
northwest CWA will be falling later this afternoon behind the
front, but should still reach the mid to upper 60s in most areas
ahead of it.
Updated zones/grids have been sent. These mainly adjusted the
hourly temperature trends. Also did some tweaks to the rain trends
this evening behind the front.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Timing of cold front and TSRA across the forecast area along with
coverage of MVFR/IFR cigs the main forecast challenges this period.
Cold front was located over east central Iowa as of 11z...and will
slow push into our area by early this afternoon. Widespread MVFR
and local IFR cigs common across the area with a trend towards more
IFR cigs this morning as another wave of rain moves across the
forecast area. Cold front is expected to push across our western
areas between 18z-21z...and to the east of our TAF sites by around
00z. The better chances for any TSRA and brief reductions in cigs
and vsbys to LIFR will be right along the cold front. Once the
front clears our area this evening, look for winds, which will be
mainly out of a south direction at 12 to 17 kts this morning, to
veer more into a southwest to west direction with FROPA this
afternoon and evening. May see some gusts up to 25 kts today ahead
of the front, especially from DEC to CMI and then again just behind
the front late this afternoon into this evening as the colder air
works its way into our area.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 237 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
Periods of rain will persist across central Illinois today, as a
moist southwesterly flow continues ahead of a slowly approaching
cold front. Boundary will reach the I-55 corridor by around
midday, then will push into western Indiana by early evening. Main
question of the day will be if any severe weather will develop
ahead of the front this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings
continue to show a saturated and rather stable warm sector:
however, latest run of the NAM suggests a weak surface wave riding
northeastward along the boundary may pull a slightly more unstable
airmass into east-central and southeast Illinois later today. This
added instability will combine with impressive 0-6km shear values
of 80 to 90kt to potentially produce a few strong to severe
storms. 4km WRF-NMM hints at a possible narrow squall line ahead of
the front between 2 PM and 8 PM, mainly along/east of I-57. As a
result, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked much of
east-central and southeast Illinois for a slight risk of severe.
Any storms that develop will push into Indiana after 8 PM:
however, scattered showers will persist further west through the
evening hours. Total rainfall today into this evening will
generally range from 1 to 1.50, but will be higher within stronger
storms.
Partly to mostly sunny skies and cooler conditions can be expected
on Friday in the wake of the departing cold front. High
temperatures will be several degrees cooler than today, ranging
from the middle 50s far north to the lower 60s south of I-70.
Clouds will be on the increase Friday afternoon/evening, as a
short-wave digs southeastward out of the Northern Plains. This
feature will carve a trough across the Great Lakes Friday night
into Saturday. Models continue to produce a few light showers
beneath this feature, mainly across northern Illinois into
north-central Indiana. As a result, will maintain a cool/dry
forecast across central Illinois through Saturday.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure will provide continued cool/dry weather for Sunday
and Monday before the next system begins to approach from the west
by Tuesday. Significant model spread exists concerning speed of
system, mainly due to varying strengths of blocking upper ridge
progged to develop in the southeast U.S. ECMWF is indicating an
unseasonably strong 594dm 500mb high building over the Carolinas
early next week, which slows the eastward progression of an upper
wave and associated cold front across the central CONUS. This
solution would bring an extended period of rain chances to central
Illinois from Tuesday through Thursday. Meanwhile, both the GFS
and GEM are slightly weaker with the Carolinas high and thus bring
the Plains system eastward through the region a bit faster. Rain
chances with this solution would generally be confined to just
Tuesday and Wednesday. Whichever solution eventually pans out, it
appears another period of beneficial rainfall is likely early next
week. Have included PoPs for Tuesday and Wednesday, hitting rain
chances hardest across the entire area on Wednesday. After a
chilly weekend, temps will return to near normal in the upper
50s/lower 60s next week.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NERN IA NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE EAST EDGE OF THE CWA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
PROGRESS...HOWEVER UPPER LOW NOT LIFTING THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE
WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF THE RAIN WESTWARD AGAIN. HRRR HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON IT. ALTHOUGH THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
MODELS...IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT BAD GIVEN RADAR TRENDS.
EXPANSION HAS BEEN PUT INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE
IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH MODEST RISES IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME A SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER
THAN 20 MPH OR SO.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE...CLEARING
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY
ADVANCE ON THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE GENERALLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER DECENT MID LEVEL
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...
SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER WITH LESS THREAT OF PCPN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ON FRIDAY AS WELL WITH DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A GOOD DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND
HELPED ALONG WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS.
QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH AS LARGE WESTERN TROF DEVELOPS. GFS AND EURO
COMING CLOSER ON SOLUTIONS AND INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IOWA WILL
BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM GULF OF MEXICO WITH
DECENT RAINS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT FOR SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS WILL LIFT ACROSS SE IA. THIS
WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH 21Z. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING...CIGS WILL
LIFT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE SLIDES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN TO NORTHERN IA INCREASING CLOUDS AFT 01/06Z. SFC FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE AFT 01/12Z IN RESPONSE TO THAT
NEXT WAVE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 13
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
642 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NERN IA NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE EAST EDGE OF THE CWA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
PROGRESS...HOWEVER UPPER LOW NOT LIFTING THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE
WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF THE RAIN WESTWARD AGAIN. HRRR HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON IT. ALTHOUGH THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
MODELS...IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT BAD GIVEN RADAR TRENDS.
EXPANSION HAS BEEN PUT INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE
IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH MODEST RISES IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME A SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER
THAN 20 MPH OR SO.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE...CLEARING
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY
ADVANCE ON THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE GENERALLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER DECENT MID LEVEL
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...
SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER WITH LESS THREAT OF PCPN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ON FRIDAY AS WELL WITH DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A GOOD DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND
HELPED ALONG WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS.
QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH AS LARGE WESTERN TROF DEVELOPS. GFS AND EURO
COMING CLOSER ON SOLUTIONS AND INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IOWA WILL
BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM GULF OF MEXICO WITH
DECENT RAINS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT FOR SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE
GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE
WEST. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SWRN KS WILL RACE NORTHEAST AND
BRING AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. RAIN
WILL END WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 13
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS OCT 13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NERN IA NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE EAST EDGE OF THE CWA. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
PROGRESS...HOWEVER UPPER LOW NOT LIFTING THROUGH THE OK PANHANDLE
WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF THE RAIN WESTWARD AGAIN. HRRR HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON IT. ALTHOUGH THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE
MODELS...IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT BAD GIVEN RADAR TRENDS.
EXPANSION HAS BEEN PUT INTO THE GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL NOT RISE
IN THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH MODEST RISES IN THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME A SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR A WHILE TODAY...BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER
THAN 20 MPH OR SO.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
SYSTEM WILL DEPART TO THE EAST TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE...CLEARING
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL RAPIDLY
ADVANCE ON THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE GENERALLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER DECENT MID LEVEL
FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO ISOLD/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...
SOUNDINGS ARE DRIER WITH LESS THREAT OF PCPN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE
STRONG ON FRIDAY AS WELL WITH DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A GOOD DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND
HELPED ALONG WITH NEARLY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS.
QUITE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY ON
BACKSIDE OF HIGH AS LARGE WESTERN TROF DEVELOPS. GFS AND EURO
COMING CLOSER ON SOLUTIONS AND INDICATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINFALL CHANCES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IOWA WILL
BE ON WESTERN EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM GULF OF MEXICO WITH
DECENT RAINS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL ENOUGH BEHIND A SLOWLY MOVING COLD
FRONT FOR SOME TRANSITION TO SNOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
LOW MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SITES THROUGH 12Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IFR OR LOWER AT TIES WITH BR/FG. SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFTING
TO MVFR AND VFR AFTER 12Z AND WILL BE VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER NW MO AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LOCATED FROM ALGONA THROUGH
CRESTON. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS STILL IN
NORTHERN MO AND IS JUST STARTING TO INCH INTO FAR SOUTHERN/SW IA.
THE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO TRENDING DOWN WITH POPS/QPF...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE RAP ACTUALLY HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON
THINGS FOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS WERE TRENDING LOWER WITH
POPS...NAM/GFS STILL LOOKED A BIT OVERDONE AND HIT QPF MORE THAN
WHAT I THINK WILL OCCUR. CONSEQUENTLY THE AREA FOR PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH I THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL OCCUR SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
I END POPS THIS EVENING FROM W/NW TO ABOUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z.
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL SO THUNDER
CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 06Z BUT STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 12Z. PATCHY FOG STILL A CONCERN AS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. FOR NOW I AM NOT CONSIDERING DENSE
FOG THOUGH LOWER LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED AN INCH OF
RAIN TODAY COULD SEE AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. I WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE EXITING OF OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND ANY
LEFTOVER ISO THUNDER WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE
...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
HALF THROUGH MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LINGERING CLOUDS FOR THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR 50 HIGHS FAR NORTH
WHERE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SOONER. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/WEAK WAVE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK
COMPARED TO CLEARING. LIMITED WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS...SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PICK UP A
WAVE IN THE FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA NOW...WHICH
WILL RACE EAST AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...THIS FEATURE SHOULD
AMPLIFY AS IT HOOKS UP WITH THE H500 TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO
THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST. THE EURO/GEM ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE REINFORCING THE
COOL WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE AND ARE ALREADY WARMING UP THE COLUMN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND DELAY
ONSET OF WARM AIR UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH A H500
TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPECTED TO DIG
ONSHORE AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY...A NICE
FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
H850 TEMPS WILL QUICKLY TURN THE CORNER AND RISE TO 3C TO 6C BY LATE
DAY...COMBINED WITH MIXING TO 875MB MAXT SHOULD RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH AND AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION SETS UP WITH THE
GULF/PACIFIC BEING CHANNELED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE EXACT POSITION...BUT OVERALL
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...EVEN IF MODEST OVER THE AREA...WILL BE
WELCOMED TO ADD TO TODAYS RAIN EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL WAVES APPROACHING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO
MIDWEEK KEEPING RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...MODESTLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM SO
HIGHS SHOULD TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
LOW MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SITES THROUGH 12Z.
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE IFR OR LOWER AT TIES WITH BR/FG. SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFTING
TO MVFR AND VFR AFTER 12Z AND WILL BE VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
617 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE AIR MASS
UNSATURATED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS IS THE CHALLENGING PART OF
THE FORECAST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE A GOOD BET LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. GFS IS WARM THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST...GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. PROGGED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL...SO THE FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING POTENT. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE SNOW
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF RAIN/NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL...AND ALL RAIN FURTHER EAST. SNOW POTENTIAL NOW IS 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH DUE TO CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS. SO DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND A SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL FRONT RANGE REGIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
939 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Ran an update to take out the flash flood watch as threat for
widespread heavy rainfall continues to diminish. Light to moderate
rain is expected to continue this morning generally along and
southeast of the turnpike, however clusters of showers and storms
are progressive with breaks between. Cooler drier air also
continues to move in through the low levels and heavier rainfall
shifting slowly southward. Debated bringing highs down a few
degrees, but think late day sunshine will bring highs back into
the 50s for much of the area albeit late in the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Well finally the upper level trough is making progress east, and the
08z water vapor imagery shows the last and most impressive shortwave
lifting across the OK panhandle. Surface obs show the front has
moved into east central KS from Burlington to Eudora. Profiler data
suggests the 850MB front is a little further west near McPherson to
near Alma and into southwest IA.
Today will see an end to the wet and gloomy weather as the upper
level wave propagates east of the area. However this morning will be
wet across eastern KS. Most model guidance is showing decent mid
level frontogenesis along the 850 front with some moisture
lingering. Additionally there should be a decent shot of QG forcing
and PVA from the shortwave lifting out from the panhandles. So there
will be one last shot of widespread shower activity with some
embedded thunderstorms. Think that the rain will come to an end once
the 850 front and the associated frontogenesis pushes south and east
of the forecast area. This looks to occur by the early afternoon
with skies clearing out by the late afternoon hours. With recent
trends showing precip becoming more stratiform in nature, rainfall
rates may not be quite as high as yesterday, but with PWs still over
an inch across east central KS, there could still be around an inch
of additional rain accumulations. Therefore will maintain the flash
flood watch for areas along and southeast of the turnpike, although
the threat does not appear to be widespread. Areas further northwest
have not received as much rain and so will cancel the watch early
for these area.
Highs today will be tricky depending on when the clouds clear out.
Think north central KS will warm into the lower 60s while parts of
northeast and east central KS could stay in the middle 50s due to
cloud cover. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the 30s and have
not made any big changes from the previous forecast. Models show dry
air advecting in from the west with dewpoint falling into the lower
30s. Clear skies should help with some radiational cooling. Winds
are forecast to remain from the west at 5 to 10 MPH overnight. Think
this along with the dry air advection are expected to mitigate any
widespread fog formation tonight. If it looks like winds will
decouple, later shifts may need to readdress this.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Next shortwave trough to move through in northwest flow aloft on
Friday will pass primarily north and east of the county warning area
so will keep mostly sunny skies with highs from the upper 50s
northern counties to the lower 60s south. Strong mixing will result
in gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph but will gradually decrease
late in the afternoon. Although skies will be clear with decreasing
winds Friday night with saturated soils...will not insert fog into
forecast at this point as so mixing still evident with the high center
to the south and west of the CWA.
Will continue with a dry weekend forecast. Surface to start the day
Saturday will result in light winds and less mixing so will keep
cooler highs in the 50s before warming back into the low to middle
60s for Sunday as gusty south winds return ahead of deepening
leeside surface trough. Next chance for showers appears with the
developing llvl jet and resulting warm air advection Sunday night.
As the western trough advanced into the plains Monday night and
Tuesday and interacts with a surge of high level tropical moisture
plume off the Pacific...an increase in precip chances will occur
Monday night through Tuesday night before decreasing again by
Wednesday with the passage of the upper trough and cold front.
With the clouds and increasing shower/thunder chances early next
week...will keep highs in the upper 50s for Monday...then cool into
the upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday with the increase in rain and
the cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Uncertainty mainly deals with CIGS and VSBY bouncing around
categories within the stratiform rain. With the surface front
beginning to move southeast and some dryer air in the boundary
layer moving in behind the front, will trend a little more
optimistic with the CIGS and VSBY and keep them MVFR. Timing the
end of precip is not much different than the prev forecast. The
one concern is the RAP13 trending slower with the exit of the
overall system. Water vapor still suggests the upper wave will be
overhead by mid afternoon with the precip off to the east, so did
not slow the timing down as the RAP would have it.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
619 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Well finally the upper level trough is making progress east, and the
08z water vapor imagery shows the last and most impressive shortwave
lifting across the OK panhandle. Surface obs show the front has
moved into east central KS from Burlington to Eudora. Profiler data
suggests the 850MB front is a little further west near McPherson to
near Alma and into southwest IA.
Today will see an end to the wet and gloomy weather as the upper
level wave propagates east of the area. However this morning will be
wet across eastern KS. Most model guidance is showing decent mid
level frontogenesis along the 850 front with some moisture
lingering. Additionally there should be a decent shot of QG forcing
and PVA from the shortwave lifting out from the panhandles. So there
will be one last shot of widespread shower activity with some
embedded thunderstorms. Think that the rain will come to an end once
the 850 front and the associated frontogenesis pushes south and east
of the forecast area. This looks to occur by the early afternoon
with skies clearing out by the late afternoon hours. With recent
trends showing precip becoming more stratiform in nature, rainfall
rates may not be quite as high as yesterday, but with PWs still over
an inch across east central KS, there could still be around an inch
of additional rain accumulations. Therefore will maintain the flash
flood watch for areas along and southeast of the turnpike, although
the threat does not appear to be widespread. Areas further northwest
have not received as much rain and so will cancel the watch early
for these area.
Highs today will be tricky depending on when the clouds clear out.
Think north central KS will warm into the lower 60s while parts of
northeast and east central KS could stay in the middle 50s due to
cloud cover. Lows tonight are forecast to fall into the 30s and have
not made any big changes from the previous forecast. Models show dry
air advecting in from the west with dewpoint falling into the lower
30s. Clear skies should help with some radiational cooling. Winds
are forecast to remain from the west at 5 to 10 MPH overnight. Think
this along with the dry air advection are expected to mitigate any
widespread fog formation tonight. If it looks like winds will
decouple, later shifts may need to readdress this.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Next shortwave trough to move through in northwest flow aloft on
Friday will pass primarily north and east of the county warning area
so will keep mostly sunny skies with highs from the upper 50s
northern counties to the lower 60s south. Strong mixing will result
in gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph but will gradually decrease
late in the afternoon. Although skies will be clear with decreasing
winds Friday night with saturated soils...will not insert fog into
forecast at this point as so mixing still evident with the high center
to the south and west of the CWA.
Will continue with a dry weekend forecast. Surface to start the day
Saturday will result in light winds and less mixing so will keep
cooler highs in the 50s before warming back into the low to middle
60s for Sunday as gusty south winds return ahead of deepening
leeside surface trough. Next chance for showers appears with the
developing llvl jet and resulting warm air advection Sunday night.
As the western trough advanced into the plains Monday night and
Tuesday and interacts with a surge of high level tropical moisture
plume off the Pacific...an increase in precip chances will occur
Monday night through Tuesday night before decreasing again by
Wednesday with the passage of the upper trough and cold front.
With the clouds and increasing shower/thunder chances early next
week...will keep highs in the upper 50s for Monday...then cool into
the upper 40s and lower 50s Tuesday with the increase in rain and
the cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
Uncertainty mainly deals with CIGS and VSBY bouncing around
categories within the stratiform rain. With the surface front
beginning to move southeast and some dryer air in the boundary
layer moving in behind the front, will trend a little more
optimistic with the CIGS and VSBY and keep them MVFR. Timing the
end of precip is not much different than the prev forecast. The
one concern is the RAP13 trending slower with the exit of the
overall system. Water vapor still suggests the upper wave will be
overhead by mid afternoon with the precip off to the east, so did
not slow the timing down as the RAP would have it.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ026-039-
040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
Happy Halloween!
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...WITH CEILINGS FALLING INTO AND REMAINING GENERALLY
WITHIN MVFR UNTIL FROPA.
&&
MARCOTTE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED MOST GRIDDED ELEMENTS FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO. WHILE
MOST MODELS IN GENERAL DID FAIRLY POORLY WITH THE RAINFALL TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HAS DONE A DECENT JOB DEPICTING
CONVECTION THIS EVENING GRADUALLY DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD. WHLIE THE SPIGOT MAY NOT SHUT OFF
COMPLETELY...IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A MUCH NEEDED ONE FOR
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA WHERE ESTIMATES OF
4 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN. THIS IS
SQUARELY WITHIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...AND WITH ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...EXPECTED TO FALL
TOMORROW...HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. THE
HRRR SUGGESTS A BAND OF HEAVY PCPN WILL BE ONGOING OR JUST
ENTERING EAST TEXAS BY DAYBREAK...AND SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
A MODEST TO HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY AND LOW TO MODEST CAPE/INSTABILITY
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TOMORROW...AND SPC HAS
THE ENTIRE REGION OUTLINED IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST WITH RAIN
CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN GOING THROUGH THURSDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNTIL THE FROPA...A STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WITH MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
MARCOTTE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN TRAINING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. STORM TOTALS REPORTED HAVE RANGED FROM ONE TO FOUR
INCHES. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPS TODAY HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE LWR 80S OUTSIDE OF RAIN COOLED AREAS ON SOUTHEAST
WINDS.
AS A RESULT OF STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TIDES ALONG THE COAST ARE
RUNNING ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 14 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE
20 MPH AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND TOMORROW UNTIL THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.
ALL THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 72 80 57 78 55 / 70 100 100 10 0
KBPT 74 80 59 77 55 / 70 100 70 10 0
KAEX 70 79 56 78 49 / 100 100 70 10 0
KLFT 72 81 64 78 55 / 20 100 100 10 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...RAPIDES...VERNON.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: EAST CAMERON...IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION...WEST
CAMERON.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HARDIN...NORTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN NEWTON...
SOUTHERN JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON...TYLER.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: JEFFERSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1110 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND USHER IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SECONDARY SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
BRIEF SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS OVER THE EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 PM UPDATE: DECIDED TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND
ADVISORIES NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LLVL JET
MOVING RIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AS WINDS GUSTING
TO 45 TO 50 MPH PER SOME OBS W/KCAR GUSTING UP TO 45 MPH. SOME REPORTS
ARE COMING IN WITH POWER OUTAGES MAINLY ACROSS THE SAINT JOHN
VALLEY. THE RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW LLVL JET EXITING INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AFTER MIDNIGHT W/WINDS GRADUALLY COMING DOWN.
TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO RAISED AS THE COLDER AIR HAS HELD BACK
SOME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY...ALTHOUGH MUCH
COOLER THAN TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF INTERESTING WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SITES WILL
GO TO VFR THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MAINE ON SATURDAY AND THIS COULD KICK OFF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE MVFR
AND AFTER THE LOW PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO REPLACE THIS WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEFORE MORNING.
CONDITIONS QUIET DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ002-005-006-010.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
931 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE FRIDAY DRAWING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAKER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS MOVING IN MORE QUICKLY THAN
REFLECTED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST. THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR IS INDICATING THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED FAIRLY
WELL.
RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL INCREASE AS THE LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS
WILL REACH THE 50S DOWNEAST AND 40S OVER THE NORTH. TONIGHT WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL RAIN AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING. TEMPS WILL THEN RISE OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHERLY WIND
PULLS WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 70 KT AT 925
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL DOWNEAST REGION BY MORNING
WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 40 MPH TOWARD MORNING. SOME
FOG AND MIST WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS
THE WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE FRIDAY...WITH A
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT STARTING TO CROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. A HIGH
WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WHERE THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL BREAK THE INVERSION ALLOWING THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. A WEAKER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER SATURDAY...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OCEAN LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH A TROF EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...CROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST TUESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TODAY.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN IFR
TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME MIST AND FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND SHEAR
LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AT 925 PUSHES NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A GALE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED BEGINNING AT 2 AM FRIDAY FOR SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING OVER 35 KT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE 10 FT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTH WINDS LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG FRIDAY. SHOWERS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MEZ001>006-010.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
353 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL WILL BRING RAIN THIS EVENING AND HIGH
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS
WINDS GUST OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES. THE WEATHER WILL COME DOWN FRIDAY
MORNING BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. FAIR
AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
FORECAST ISSUES ARE FOR HIGH WIND LATE TONIGHT...AND THUNDER/RAIN
THIS EVENING.
WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AFTER MIDNIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS COULD
MIX DOWN. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 50 KNOTS OF WIND CLOSE TO OR
IN THE MIXING LAYER. THE 12Z EURO IS A BIT WEAKER AND FASTER WITH
THE SFC LOW. WENT WITH A HIGH WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME SPOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z.
BEFORE THEN...WILL BE WATCHING THE RADAR EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP
CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DRY SLOT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT STILL SEEING DRIZZLE AND SOLID CLOUD
COVER...SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A WEAK NCFR COULD STILL FORM AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RADAR ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN AND WIND THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD JUST BE A SOGGY AND MILD TIME FOR TRICK OT TREATING. THE
SYNOPTIC WIND THREAT ARRIVES LATER.
NO REAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SNOWFLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL BLO MINUS 6C AND
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
FAIR WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MAX TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL REACH
THE 50S BEFORE COOLING TO THE 40S BEHIND THAT SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN. POCKETS OF LIFR
ARE POSSIBLE. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
POTENTIAL IN THIS TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN ANY OF THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
KTS POSSIBLE... MAINLY AT KMKG. CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY MVFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHTER
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
NO CHANGES TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR GALE WARNING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND THE GALE WARNING WILL BE
REPLACED WITH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THAT TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
SOME RAIN TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES IN VAN BUREN COUNTY AND EXPECT
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN ENDS TONIGHT. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHARP RISES ON SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS WITH
RISES ON MANY OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BREAK...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...AREA WILL COME UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH...PUSHING OUR PWAT VALUES FROM 0.75IN (WHICH IS
STILL 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) TO OVER 1.0IN (OR 200-225 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT BEFORE
THAT OCCURS...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH NORTHEAST
FROM THAT LOW AND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS (AND PRODUCING THE AREAS OF
CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS)...ALONG
WITH THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST AND NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EAST TONIGHT.
AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAS BEEN MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING VERY BROAD AND
COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA...IT/S HARD TO PIN DOWN AREAS WHERE THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED AND WHEN THEY WILL OCCUR. FEEL THAT THE
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND THEN RAMP UP (ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA) TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN IOWA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SINCE THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DID ADD MENTION OF PATCHY/AREAS OF
DRIZZLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS BROAD WAA...BUT SEEM TO FOLLOW THAT
SIMILAR IDEA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOW THE COVERAGE TO BE LACKING. IF
THE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE TONIGHT (50-150
J/KG). IN ADDITION...850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES DO INCREASE TO
6.5C/KM...SO CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. IF CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER ON SHOWER
LOCATION AND INTENSITY...WOULD ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND WILL
PASS ALONG TO THE EVENING SHIFT ON A POSSIBLE ADDITION.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH...HAVE SHOWN A DRYING TREND TO THE
POPS OVER THE WEST THIRD LATE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST...THINK THE UPSLOPE DIRECTION TO THE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.
HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT SPREAD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND AND LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ALREADY IN PLACE...THINK THAT IS REASONABLE. AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TOWARDS
1/4-1/2MI IN THE CENTRAL CWA AND DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG.
FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT IT TO BE
A DREARY DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO COVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE AREAS/PATCHY FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN AREAS FAVORED BY LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE FOR THAT PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE AND PV ANOMALY WILL
EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFY THE LOW AS IT
PULLS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH A CONSENSUS NOW SHOWING IT
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 00Z. BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK GREATLY INFLUENCES THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA AND
HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH POPS INCREASING IN THAT AREA
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THE
CLOUDY/DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE LOWS POSITION BY 00-6Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SLIGHT...THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST QPF WILL SHIFT DEPENDING ON THE LOW
TRACK. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DIFFER
GREATLY FROM WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST NOW.
GENERALLY...THE 12Z GFS WRAPS THE SFC LOW UP SOONER THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z NAM RUN. THE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 00Z
TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY 06Z...DEEPENING FROM 989MB TO 982MB. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A 992MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AT 00Z...WITH A TROUGH EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. BY
6Z...THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 982MB OVER SAGINAW BAY. AT 00Z...THE 00Z
ECMWF POSITIONS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...A SORT OF
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM...BUT THEN ALIGNS ITSELF MORE
FAVORABLY WITH THE GFS BY 6Z...WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON. THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM BASICALLY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/NAM...SO THIS WAS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED TO CREATE THE
WINDS/POPS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE GFS TRACK SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR
NORTH...AND IT STARTS TRENDING SOUTHWARD IN THE 6Z TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAKES ME FEEL MORE CONFIDENT USING THE GEM SOLUTION.
EXPECT LL FGEN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE TO SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORE FROM 00Z-06Z.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE GREATEST ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS WERE LIMITED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AS THIS IS
WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS ABUNDANT...AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST.
THANKFULLY...850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 0-9C DURING THIS EVENT...SO NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED. OVERALL TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN EVENT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE FRIDAY MORNING-SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...850MB TEMPS BECOME COOLER...AROUND -3 TO -6 AT THE
WORST...AND MAINLY OUT WEST. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL...WITH
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
REMAIN THROUGH 06-12Z SUN...THOUGH THEY WILL TAPER OFF WITH TIME AS
THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND MOISTURE DWINDLES.
THE WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A
BREAK TO THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.
FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO ONTARIO. THE ECMWF PULLS
THIS SURFACE LOW FURTHEST NORTH OVER JAMES BAY...AND THE GFS KEEPS
IT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. EITHER WAY...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND 850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE ZERO
FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT...THOUGH
OVERNIGHT/MORNING COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR SOME AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT CMX/SAW INTO THU MORNING.
A DOWNSLOPE SRLY WIND AT IWD WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL EVEN WITH IFR
CIGS PREVAILING.
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...THE WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
WILL FAVOR DRIZZLE FOR KCMX/KIWD AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
CEILINGS LOW. AT KSAW...WITH SRLY WINDS BECOMING NORTH...UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT LOW CIGS AND FOG THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL SLIDE A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND WILL
LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 20KTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW FURTHER
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS GUSTS UP TO 30KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO 20-25KTS ELSEWHERE. IF THE
LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...COULD SEE SOME GALES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE LAKE.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT
WILL LEAVE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD STAY
BELOW 20KTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND LEAD TO
WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004-005-010>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1157 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
UPDATED GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCLUDE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE
FOG ADVY FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THU MORNING. OBS OF 1/2SM
OR LESS...WITH MANY 1/4SM OR LESS...HAVE BECOME COMMON IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL-SRN MN THIS EVE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
W-CENTRAL WI BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BLYR HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA.
HRRR/SREF/HOPWRF ALL INDICATE THE DEGRADED VSBY TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVY.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND TWEAK THE ADVY IF/AS NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
DREARY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIDE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND WIDESPREAD FOG HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MSLP HAS FALLEN 5-7 MB IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MN IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY SLOT SHOWING UP ON
SATELLITE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE BL WINDS AND HELPED MIX OUT SOME
OF THE DENSE FOG OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...THE FOG HAS ACTUALLY
THICKENED IN MANY LOCATIONS. THESE SAME AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT
ENE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z /NEAR CALM AT TIMES/. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOW FOG AND STRATUS IN PLACE. BETWEEN 09-12Z...THE FLOW
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW AND ADVECT COOLER/BUT DRIER 925-850
MB AIR INTO MN. THIS SHOULD DO THE TRICK OF BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. LOCAL WRF SIMULATIONS AND THE PAST COUPLE HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. WE REDUCED POPS/QPF TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTH-EAST TREND IN
THE 12-18Z GUIDANCE. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
/SUCH AS ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE/ SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND COULD STILL SEE 0.10-0.25" BETWEEN
03-09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS MIGHT BE
DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
TWIN CITIES METRO COULD STILL PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING STRATO
CU...BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY AND THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
NOTHING TOO SCARY WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE WAKE
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAIN ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA.
WOULD HAVE GONE TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI... BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... THE
GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH A MUCH LIGHTER AND
PATCHY PRECIPITATION PATTERN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE TWO DAYS FOR SUNSHINE BUT IT
BECOME QUITE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS THE FA... ESPECIALLY FROM WEST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN... WHERE SW WINDS NEAR 25 MPH
GUSTING TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE WIND IS THE RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD RUN ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AS ALONG AS THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN DOES NOT SLOW MUCH. PUSHED HIGHS
UP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE SW CWA BASED ON H85 MIX DOWN FROM
THE ECMWF.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
ROCKIES BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM FEATURES BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ALOFT. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO
PHASE THE TWO STREAMS OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS KEPT SEPARATION BETWEEN
THE STREAMS. THE ECMWF HAS BECOME QUITE EXTREME TODAY CUTTING
OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO BY MID WEEK. OVERALL... A
SLOWER OUTCOME WILL LIKELY RESULT OVER WHAT THE GFS INDICATES AND
PERHAPS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. HENCE... A RATHER WET PERIOD IS
LIKELY NEXT WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SNOW IS MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS KEEP THEIR DISTANCE LIKE THE ECMWF
INDICATES. MORE PHASING LIKE THE GFS WOULD PREFER COULD LEAD TO
TROUBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR-AND-WORSE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS BEING SHOWN IN FAR WRN MN
WITH VSBY IN THE 2SM-4SM RANGE...BUT THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL-ERN
MN INTO WRN WI STILL SHOW 2SM OR LESS VSBY...ALONG WITH OVC003 OR
LOWER CEILINGS. DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AND
LIKELY TO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT OCCURS.
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TMRW AFTN WHILE
VSBYS IMPROVE QUICKER. CONDS LOOK TO REACH VFR BY EARLY EVENING
THU AND SOME CEILINGS MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W
AT ARND 10 KT AFTER REMAINING LGT/VRBL OVERNIGHT.
KMSP...IFR-OR-LOWER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY LIFR AND VLIFR...WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT DUE TO FOG. VSBY WILL COMMONLY BE 1/2SM OR LESS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH CEILINGS IN THE 100-200 FT RANGE. CONDS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY TMRW...BUT IFR-OR-WORSE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY LAST THRU LATE MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN. THIS INCLUDES
VSBY 3SM OR LESS AND CEILINGS WELL BELOW 1700 FT. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE TMRW AFTN AND CONTINUE IMPROVING TO VFR BY
TMRW EVE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SE 10-20 KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
048>053-057>063-066>070-076>078.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-
023>028.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1246 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS WITH NEW TORNADO WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
AND EAST MS THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. UPDATED RAINFALL AXIS TIMING
AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, NEW THOUGHTS ON POSSIBLE STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON IN DISCUSSION BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SEEN AN UPTICK IN STRONGER LEWP
REFLECTIVITY CORES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS ACROSS WEST
MS AND NORTHEAST LA. MID-ALTITUDE RADIAL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN ON THE
INCREASE WITH THESE LEWP FEATURES AND WITH 0-1 SRH 400-500 M2/S2 AND
PLUS SOME INCREASED SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG WITH SLIGHT BOUNDARY
BUOYANCY RECOVERY...THE TORNADO RISK AND STRAIGHTLINE WIND RISK WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR
THE WATCH AREA.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE BAND WHERE
STRONGER CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
LOUISIANA. THE RUC BRINGS THIS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BAND ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL MS THROUGH 6PM THAT WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF DEEPER
CORES TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. QUICK SPIN
UP VORTICIES HAVE BEEN SEEN SEEN ON FORT POLK RADAR OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND THIS POSSIBILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH 7PM TONIGHT.
THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WILL CLEAR WEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE JACKSON METRO/TRACE CORRIDOR
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING AND THEN EAST MISSISSIPPI BY
MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS WITH THIS LATEST TIMING.
NEW GRAPHICS WILL BE POSTED SHORTLY WITH UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS OUT.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE AERODROME AS RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE HEART OF THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY
AND A FEW OF THESE COULD CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS. AWAY FROM STORMS
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT GLH/GWO. POCKETS OF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS AT A
TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE POCKETS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVE
OVER THE STATION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR TO PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN
SOME FASHION UNTIL MORNING. THE LATTER WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 53 74 46 71 / 61 11 0 5
MERIDIAN 56 74 43 70 / 94 17 0 6
VICKSBURG 50 74 46 71 / 37 8 0 5
HATTIESBURG 63 78 48 73 / 100 31 0 9
NATCHEZ 52 73 49 71 / 39 9 0 5
GREENVILLE 49 73 47 69 / 25 7 0 4
GREENWOOD 49 73 47 68 / 37 8 0 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-
025>045-047>050-053>055-059>062.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034-035-040-041.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS FOR TORNADO WATCH WORDING INCLUSION AND MOVED
UP FLASH FLOOD WATCH START TIME TO NOW. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND SUPPORTING GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION THAT ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
LIFT FROM A LEAD SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH THE BEGINNING
INFLUENCE OF LIFT FROM THE MAIN TROUGH FORCING STILL BACK ACROSS
TEXAS/LOUISIANA HAS ALLOWED FOR A HEAVY RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DELTA WITH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE CHARLES. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS COME IN STRONGER AND
THUS THE HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTIVE BANDING TIMING IS FASTER FOR THIS
MORNING. THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF I-20 HAS NULLIFIED THE
SEVERE STORM RISK THERE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS OBS
THIS MORNING SHOW 20-25 KT GUSTS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIGHER WIND
GUSTS TO OCCUR LATE MRNG/AFTN TO 35 KT (40 MPH) WITH SUCH SATURATED
SOIL FOR SPORADIC TREES TO COME DOWN, HOWEVER. THE BETTER RISK FOR
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 CLOSER TO
A CAPE RESERVOIR POOL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
A SMALL PORTION OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MS IS UNDER A TORNADO
WATCH THROUGH 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW WITH
LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY PER MESOANALYSIS, THE AMOUNT OF 0-1 KM SRH
REMAINS HIGH />500 M2/S2/. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A NON-ZERO RISK
FOR TORNADOES BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS SMALL. NONE-THE-LESS, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELL THAT COULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE IN THIS SET-UP.
HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW WITH
THE AREAS REMAINING THE SAME. HI-RES AND HRRR OUTPUT THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH NARROW BANDS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CELLS TRAIN. HOWEVER,
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT WITH SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.8
TO 2" AND DUAL-POL RADAR INDICATING 2-4" INSTANTANEOUS HOURLY PRECIP
RATES...RAIN FALL IN NE LOUISIANA AND ACROSS SW TO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAVING NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY 4-5"
POSSIBLE IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FORCING AND
THE RESULTANT ASCENT OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS BACK TO OUR
WEST.
HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON PRECIP LOCATION CURRENTLY BUT THINK IT
IS TO FAST AS TIME PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY GIVEN AREA OF ASCENT SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY STILL REMAINING BACK ACROSS TEXAS.
FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE GOING TOWARDS 6Z ARW WRF WHICH IS SLOWER THAN
THE HRRR. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS LA/MS RIVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, BE NEAR JACKSON EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID AFTERNOON,
AND IN EAST MS TOWARDS HATTIESBURG BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN AXIS. THIS OVERALL TIMING IS A
TOUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN LIGHTENING UP
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE METRO BY 7PM FOR HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES. UPDATED
HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFLECT NEW TIMING AND HAZARD
AREAS.
/ALLEN/
&&
.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS THE AERODROME AS RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE HEART OF THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY
AND A FEW OF THESE COULD CONTAIN VERY GUSTY WINDS. AWAY FROM STORMS
ANTICIPATE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT GLH/GWO. POCKETS OF IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS AT A
TIME DURING THE DAY AS THE POCKETS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVE
OVER THE STATION.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR TO PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN
SOME FASHION UNTIL MORNING. THE LATTER WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF MS. /BB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 53 74 46 / 96 61 11 0
MERIDIAN 78 56 74 43 / 95 94 17 0
VICKSBURG 76 50 74 46 / 100 37 8 0
HATTIESBURG 78 63 78 48 / 57 100 31 0
NATCHEZ 76 52 73 49 / 100 39 9 0
GREENVILLE 73 49 73 47 / 100 11 7 0
GREENWOOD 72 49 73 47 / 98 37 8 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>045-
047>050-053>055-059>062.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034-035-040-041.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
937 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ALL PRODUCTS FOR TORNADO WATCH WORDING INCLUSION AND MOVED
UP FLASH FLOOD WATCH START TIME TO NOW. A NEW HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK AND SUPPORTING GRAPHICS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION THAT ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
.DISCUSSION...
LIFT FROM A LEAD SHORTWAVE IN COMBINATION WITH THE BEGINNING
INFLUENCE OF LIFT FROM THE MAIN TROUGH FORCING STILL BACK ACROSS
TEXAS/LOUISIANA HAS ALLOWED FOR A HEAVY RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE DELTA WITH A STRONGER CONVECTIVE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE CHARLES. THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE HAS COME IN STRONGER AND
THUS THE HEAVY RAIN AND CONVECTIVE BANDING TIMING IS FASTER FOR THIS
MORNING. THE STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF I-20 HAS NULLIFIED THE
SEVERE STORM RISK THERE. GRADIENT WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS OBS
THIS MORNING SHOW 20-25 KT GUSTS. ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR HIGHER WIND
GUSTS TO OCCUR LATE MRNG/AFTN TO 35 KT (40 MPH) WITH SUCH SATURATED
SOIL FOR SPORADIC TREES TO COME DOWN, HOWEVER. THE BETTER RISK FOR
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 CLOSER TO
A CAPE RESERVOIR POOL ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.
A SMALL PORTION OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MS IS UNDER A TORNADO
WATCH THROUGH 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE TORNADO RISK IS LOW WITH
LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY PER MESOANALYSIS, THE AMOUNT OF 0-1 KM SRH
REMAINS HIGH />500 M2/S2/. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS A NON-ZERO RISK
FOR TORNADOES BUT THE LIKELIHOOD IS SMALL. NONE-THE-LESS, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELL THAT COULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE IN THIS SET-UP.
HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO NOW WITH
THE AREAS REMAINING THE SAME. HI-RES AND HRRR OUTPUT THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES WITH NARROW BANDS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CELLS TRAIN. HOWEVER,
IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT WITH SUCH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.8
TO 2" AND DUAL-POL RADAR INDICATING 2-4" INSTANTANEOUS HOURLY PRECIP
RATES...RAIN FALL IN NE LOUISIANA AND ACROSS SW TO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF HAVING NARROW BANDS OF LOCALLY 4-5"
POSSIBLE IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FORCING AND
THE RESULTANT ASCENT OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS REMAINS BACK TO OUR
WEST.
HRRR HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON PRECIP LOCATION CURRENTLY BUT THINK IT IS
TO FAST AS TIME PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY GIVEN AREA OF ASCENT SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY STILL REMAINING BACK ACROSS TEXAS.
FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE GOING TOWARDS 6Z ARW WRF WHICH IS SLOWER THAN
THE HRRR. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL LINGER ACROSS LA/MS RIVER THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, BE NEAR JACKSON EARLY AFTERNOON TO MID AFTERNOON,
AND IN EAST MS TOWARDS HATTIESBURG BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS AS THE ACTUAL FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BEHIND THE MAIN RAIN AXIS. THIS OVERALL TIMING IS A
TOUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN LIGHTENING UP
POSSIBLY ACROSS THE METRO BY 7PM FOR HALLOWEEN ACTIVITIES. UPDATED
HWO/GRAPHICS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO REFLECT NEW TIMING AND HAZARD
AREAS.
/ALLEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 53 74 46 / 96 61 11 0
MERIDIAN 78 56 74 43 / 95 94 17 0
VICKSBURG 76 50 74 46 / 100 37 8 0
HATTIESBURG 78 63 78 48 / 57 100 31 0
NATCHEZ 76 52 73 49 / 100 39 9 0
GREENVILLE 73 49 73 47 / 100 11 7 0
GREENWOOD 72 49 73 47 / 98 37 8 0
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>045-
047>050-053>055-059>062.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034-035-040-041.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
ALLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
351 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Focus for tonight will be pops as the upper trof moves thru the
area.
Upper trof just starting to enter far nwrn MO with dry slot
spreading over much of the area. Vort max rounding the base of the
trof now will help eject the trof ewd along with the precip. Have
trended pops this eve twd the 4km local WRF and the HRRR which are
in fairly good agreement along with much of the other guidance as
well. These solns suggest a line of TSRA across far ern portions of
the CWA with some stratiform precip behind that, but exiting the
area quickly. The CWA shud be dry by 03z if not before.
With clouds clearing out of the area tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance. That said, do not anticipate temps dropping too
much tonight with mixing persisting thru the night and with no
substantial cooler or drier air advecting into the region.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Period begins with focus on temps thru the weekend.
With ample clouds expected across much of the area on Fri and with
the sfc ridge building into the area on Sat, have trended twd the
cooler guidance thru the weekend. Warm up shud begin on Sun as the
sfc ridge starts to retreat and as the thermal ridge starts moving
nwd into the area.
For the extd, focus turns to pops late Mon thru Wed. Mdls have
come into better agreement with trof timing and phasing. Have
lowered pops on Mon and on Thurs with better agreement among mdls.
Increased pops between these times where mdls were in better
agreement regarding precip. Some uncertainty still remains and
will continue to adjust as needed.
Tilly
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Complex weather scenario for this afternoon and early evening.
Line of showers has developed and has become attm the effective
boundary as winds veer sharply to the west concurrent with a drop
in temps and dewpoints. This line is approaching the St. Louis
metro area from the west/southwest as of 1700 UTC. However...area
of low pressure may develop to the southwest and help keep the
synoptic cold front back until around 2100 UTC. Thus...have a
TEMPO for brief gusty winds out of the west at the metro TAF sites
before prevailing winds become out of the SSW until actual fropa.
Kept VCTS mention at these sites too for this afternoon as there
may be just enough instability to produce some
thunder/lightning. IFR ceilings will also be possible at the metro
sites post-frontal and thus have a tempo in to account for this
possibility. At KCOU and KUIN...believe northwest winds will hold
through the valid TAF period with main concerns at these sites
being possible IFR ceilings and post- frontal shra. Both of these
sites should experience at least some IFR ceilings through late
this afternoon before scattering out. Skies should become mostly
clear overnight tonight with some diurnal cu with bases around
3000 feet likely tomorrow and west/northwest winds around 10-15
knots with some gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Complex weather scenario for this afternoon and early evening.
Line of showers has developed and has become attm the effective
boundary as winds veer sharply to the west concurrent with a drop
in temps and dewpoints. This line is approaching the St. Louis
metro area from the west/southwest as of 1700 UTC. However...area
of low pressure may develop to the southwest and help keep the
actual synoptic cold front back until around 2100 UTC.
Thus...have a TEMPO for brief gusty winds out of the west at the
metro TAF sites before prevailing winds become out of the SSW
until actual fropa. Kept VCTS mention at these sites too for this
afternoon as there may be just enough instability to produce some
thunder/lightning. IFR ceilings are possible after fropa so have a
tempo to account for this. Skies should become mostly clear
overnight tonight with some diurnal cu with bases around 3000 feet
likely tomorrow and west/northwest winds around 10-15 knots with
some gusts around 20 knots.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 44 61 42 55 / 60 0 5 0
Quincy 39 56 37 51 / 20 5 10 0
Columbia 41 60 37 53 / 10 0 0 0
Jefferson City 42 62 37 54 / 10 0 0 0
Salem 44 61 41 54 / 80 0 10 0
Farmington 43 63 37 54 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
222 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.SHORT TERM: (Through Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Focus for tonight will be pops as the upper trof moves thru the
area.
Upper trof just starting to enter far nwrn MO with dry slot
spreading over much of the area. Vort max rounding the base of the
trof now will help eject the trof ewd along with the precip. Have
trended pops this eve twd the 4km local WRF and the HRRR which are
in fairly good agreement along with much of the other guidance as
well. These solns suggest a line of TSRA across far ern portions of
the CWA with some stratiform precip behind that, but exiting the
area quickly. The CWA shud be dry by 03z if not before.
With clouds clearing out of the area tonight, have trended twd the
cooler guidance. That said, do not anticipate temps dropping too
much tonight with mixing persisting thru the night and with no
substantial cooler or drier air advecting into the region.
Tilly
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
A period of quiet weather will follow today`s activity. Expecting
seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dry
conditions Friday. The upper longwave pattern will amplify overhead
by Saturday morning with the Midwest being in northwest flow. This
will cause a cool high pressure system to build across the area
Saturday into Sunday. As a result, temperatures will fall below
normal with lows in the mid 30s to near 40 and highs in the low to
mid 50s Saturday rising to the mid 50s to near 60 on Sunday. The
next trof will amplify over the Rockies on Monday, and the flow
aloft will turn back to the southwest. Medium range models show a
trend for increasing clouds Monday as well as increasing chances for
precipitation. By Tuesday the axis of the low level jet will be
right over Missouri with a strong baroclinic zone stretching from
the southeast Plains in to eastern Kansas, northwest Missouri, and
Iowa. Models generate a wave of low pressure on the baroclinic zone
over Oklahoma Tuesday night and eject it northeast along the
baroclinic zone into Wednesday. Guidance has the cold front
associated with this system drifting into east central Missouri by
18Z Wednesday. Temperatures will be highly dependent upon clouds
and precip Monday through Wednesday, but it looks like temperatures
should be near or a few degrees below normal with an increasing
chance for rain, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
Carney
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
Complex weather scenario for this afternoon and early evening.
Line of showers has developed and has become attm the effective
boundary as winds veer sharply to the west concurrent with a drop
in temps and dewpoints. This line is approaching the St. Louis
metro area from the west/southwest as of 1700 UTC. However...area
of low pressure may develop to the southwest and help keep the
synoptic cold front back until around 2100 UTC. Thus...have a
TEMPO for brief gusty winds out of the west at the metro TAF sites
before prevailing winds become out of the SSW until actual fropa.
Kept VCTS mention at these sites too for this afternoon as there
may be just enough instability to produce some
thunder/lightning. IFR ceilings will also be possible at the metro
sites post-frontal and thus have a tempo in to account for this
possibility. At KCOU and KUIN...believe northwest winds will hold
through the valid TAF period with main concerns at these sites
being possible IFR ceilings and post- frontal shra. Both of these
sites should experience at least some IFR ceilings through late
this afternoon before scattering out. Skies should become mostly
clear overnight tonight with some diurnal cu with bases around
3000 feet likely tomorrow and west/northwest winds around 10-15
knots with some gusts around 20 knots.
Specifics for KSTL:
Complex weather scenario for this afternoon and early evening.
Line of showers has developed and has become attm the effective
boundary as winds veer sharply to the west concurrent with a drop
in temps and dewpoints. This line is approaching the St. Louis
metro area from the west/southwest as of 1700 UTC. However...area
of low pressure may develop to the southwest and help keep the
actual synoptic cold front back until around 2100 UTC.
Thus...have a TEMPO for brief gusty winds out of the west at the
metro TAF sites before prevailing winds become out of the SSW
until actual fropa. Kept VCTS mention at these sites too for this
afternoon as there may be just enough instability to produce some
thunder/lightning. IFR ceilings are possible after fropa so have a
tempo to account for this. Skies should become mostly clear
overnight tonight with some diurnal cu with bases around 3000 feet
likely tomorrow and west/northwest winds around 10-15 knots with
some gusts around 20 knots.
Gosselin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis 44 61 42 55 / 60 0 5 0
Quincy 39 56 37 51 / 20 5 10 0
Columbia 41 60 37 53 / 10 0 0 0
Jefferson City 42 62 37 54 / 10 0 0 0
Salem 44 61 41 54 / 80 0 10 0
Farmington 43 63 37 54 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2013
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
19Z surface analysis and visible satellite imagery depict a sharp
cold front extending from extreme NW MO to just west of Topeka to
just west of Wichita. This boundary has become nearly stationary
this afternoon, slowed by upstream pressure falls and increasing
southerly warm sector flow that has more than offset the anemic
post-frontal wind fields. The elevated mixed layer present in the
12Z KTOP sounding has been eliminating by a surge of mid-high level
subtropical moisture that overspread the area between 17-18Z per
water vapor imagery, and has resulted in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. This activity should continue to progress steadily
eastward over the next few hours, with the activity in the warm
sector diminishing and being maintained north of the warm front
across nrn MO.
Further west, satellite imagery has shown some thinning/partial clearing
along and ahead of the immediate frontal zone over eastern KS into
Kansas City. Enough insolation is expected to boost temperatures into
the lower 70s, coupled with dewpoints now in the mid 60s in the pre-
frontal moist axis. Although frontal convergence is presently weak
owing to light/calm winds on the cool side of the boundary, a short-
wave impulse over wrn KS is expected to lift across Kansas during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. Large scale ascent
associated with this feature should be sufficient for thunderstorms
to quickly develop along the frontal zone around 21-22Z. Increasing
destabilization in this region should yield SBCAPE upwards of 1500
J/kg co-located beneath an impressive mid-upper level wind field
(65-70 knots at 500mb and 120 knots at 250mb) that will shift toward
the KS/MO border by 00Z. The HRRR model, which has done extremely
well to this point, clearly shows the low level response to the upper
wave, with an increasing low level wind field this evening over ern
KS and far wrn MO, with low level SRH values increasing to between
200-300 m^2/s^s. Certainly the large scale environment would be
supportive of both supercells and smaller scale bowing segments
within a QLCS type of system. And although the warm front has become
rather diffuse from recent widespread convection, and convectively
induced boundary could also aid in the available boundary layer
vorticity. Bottom line is that we may see a period between roughly 22
and 02Z where the tornado potential becomes non-zero over the
southwest quadrant of the CWA.
In addition to the severe threat late this afternoon and early this
evening, moderate to heavy precipitation will likely train ahead of
the slow moving boundary through much of the overnight hours (and
into the day tomorrow). The deep subtropical moisture plume, with
direct connections to both the Gulf and the remnants of Hurricane
Raymond in the EPAC, have contributed to GPS measured precipitable
water column around 1.60" which is nearing the maximum values ever
recorded on this date. An intensifying low level jet this evening
and overnight will maximize rainfall efficiency by focusing moisture
transport and ascent along the frontal zone. Given that 1-2.5" of
rain has already fallen over the past 48 hours across portions of
the area, have gone ahead and issued a flash flood watch for areas
along and southeast of a St. Joseph to Trenton line, effective from
now through 18Z tomorrow.
Temperature wise, very warm and humid conditions will persist
through the warm sector overnight. Basically kept readings in the
mid 60s along and south of the MO river, with only a gradual drop
off through the 50s further north given the initial lack of cold
advection.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
Rain is expected to continue through the majority of the daytime
hours of Thursday as models have trended deeper and more developed
with upper energy rotating around the base of the larger trough.
Despite the surface front sinking into the southeastern third of
Missouri Thursday morning, the track of the upper wave would support
a large deformation rain band to form and spread across the CWA
through the day. Rain should finally taper off late Thursday
afternoon, leaving damp and cool conditions for Halloween evening.
Friday-Sunday: A secondary upper trough will pass through the region
on Friday ushering in slightly cooler air for Saturday. However,
mid-level ridging will quickly move eastward for the second half of
the weekend, and model guidance indicates a quick return of
southerly flow by Sunday morning. Strong warm advection should push
temperatures back into the lower 60s.
Sunday night - Wednesday: Stratus should stream northward Sunday
night, insulating the area from any extreme temperature drop. With
the next upper trough diving into the Four Corners region Monday
night, rain chances will begin to increase substantially by Tuesday
through Wednesday and have bumped up PoPs both days.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
A slow moving surface cold front is currently across northwestern
Missouri and is in the VC of STJ. This will help keep winds light and
variable through much of the night. A few light showers will continue
to move through MKC overnight with a few in the VC of MCI while STJ
will remain dry with fog reducing vsbys to 2SM. Cigs will be IFR at
MCI and STJ through the overnight hours while MKC will remain MVFR
through 09Z before dropping into IFR. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms which is associated with an upper level shortwave is
getting organized across northern Oklahoma. These showers will
continue to move northeastward overnight and move into the terminals
between 09Z-10Z. Light to moderate rain showers will continue through
16Z-17Z with IFR cigs persisting with light fog reducing vsbys to
4-5SM. After the main area of rain pushes off to the east of terminals,
there may continue to be a few light showers in the area however cigs
should improve to MVFR. As such have added a TEMPO group for
improving conditions by late morning/early afternoon. Cigs will
scatter out around 19Z-20Z before going clear tomorrow evening. After
generally light winds overnight, winds will become out of the north-
northwest tomorrow morning between 5-10kts. Winds tomorrow afternoon
will then back to the west-northwest before becoming westerly around
5kts around 00Z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday afternoon FOR KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday afternoon FOR MOZ007-008-
013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Bookbinder
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...73
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
830 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
EVENING UPDATE...
WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED FURTHER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED SOME ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FIRST IMPRESSIONS. WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES A SMALL
CHANCE FOR DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEYS EXISTS TO CREATE SHALLOW RADIATION FOG. HRRR AND NAM5DNG
POINT TOWARD THIS WITH THE NAM5 BEING FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ALONG
MOST OF THE VALLEYS. USED AREAS OF HRRR WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 7
MILES TO GRAB ON TO DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS. GAH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT NORTHEAST
MONTANA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY. OFF THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON COASTS THERE IS A SMALLER BUT
STRONG MEDIUM WAVE TROUGH/STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER THE RIDGE AXIS...BEGINNING OVER SEATTLE TODAY...WILL BE
PUSHED ALONG RATHER QUICKLY...PASSING EAST OF NEMONT SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS MONTANA...850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 2C TO 4C WITH RAMP UP TO AROUND 6C TO 8C LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THERMAL RIDGING WILL SEND SATURDAY HIGHS
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5F DEGREES.
BY SATURDAY EVENING THE ENERGETIC DIGGING TROUGH WILL OCCUPY MUCH
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALL OF WASHINGTON/OREGON WITH WIND AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION. THE COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAKES
IT INTO NEMONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES A COMPACT CYCLONE WITH THE CLOSED OFF SURFACE AND
UPPER LOWS POSITIONED ON THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE STORM
ENERGY NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT NEMONT WILL LIKELY
SEE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE STORM WILL BE TO INCREASE
WESTERLY WIND...FOR A POSSIBLE LAKE WIND HEADLINE...AND DROP
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 0C BY
00Z MONDAY. SO EXPECT SUNDAY HIGHS TO FALL TO AROUND 5F BELOW
NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE GOING LONG TERM FORECAST IN OVERALL EXCELLENT SHAPE DEPICTING
AN UPPER TROUGH BRINGING COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
MONDAY THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN COOL AND MAINLY DRY UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THURSDAY WILL BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE NOW EXITING UPPER TROUGH. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BUILDING UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS TIMING AND POSSIBLE IMPACTS. GOING FORECAST
WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE. GILCHRIST
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP... LONG RANGE BEGINS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BENDING BACK INTO SOUTHERN HIGHS
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. AND EQUALLY LARGE TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SPREADS NORTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA. NORTHEAST MONTANA LIES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THOUGH AT THE
SURFACE FROM THE GIT GO. TO THE WEST... YET ANOTHER EQUALLY LARGE
RIDGE AND TROUGH COUPLET SETS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND BEARING
SEAS RESPECTIVELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... TROUGH DIRECTLY TO THE WEST WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND TAP INTO COLD AIR OVER THE
CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS... DRAGGING IT DOWN INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND
BOTTOMING LOWS OUT IN THE TEENS. SOME MODERATING AFFECT WILL BE
IN PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS THE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA AND A WEAK RIDGE TO THE WEST TAKES HOLD.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SLIGHTLY ALLOWING SOME SUNLIGHT THROUGH HOWEVER
A POSSIBLE WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW COULD PASS
THROUGH HERE BEFORE A FULL RIDGE SETS UP THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND... THE BEARING SEA ORIGIN TROUGH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO THE
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT AND INITIAL SHOWERS.
MAIN RUNS OF DIFFERENT MODELS LOOK SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH THIS
PASSAGE WHICH LEAD TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL THIS FAR OUT.
NEVER THE LESS... THIS IS THE FIRST LINE UP OF THESE MODELS AND
CHANGE COULD EASILY OCCUR.
GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW GROUND
FOG AROUND SUNRISE.
SKY: MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT THEN SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
SATURDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS. KGGW WILL SEE SOMEWHAT STRONGER SE WINDS
AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE 02Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
..A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND AS WE FALL BACK TO STANDARD TIME...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON SUNDAY...
A 140KT JET OVER ALBERTA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN H5 TROF OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES AT 12Z. SHORTWAVE
TROF ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONGER WAVE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME SATURATION AROUND 750MB
AND THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING.
THE RH PROGS THROUGH TONIGHT DO BRING CONTINUED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
WITH THE H3 JET TRANSLATING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH AT A QUICK SPEED AS WELL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE
TREND IS FOR THE MOISTURE IS TO HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IS EXITING OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES. THE LATEST WSR-
88D SHOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS AND A POCKET OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 18Z AND BY 20Z THERE WAS A NICE
ARC OF SHOWERS OVER THE MIDLANDS. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BULK OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OR EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH HAVE SOME MINOR PRECIP
SWINGING THROUGH AND THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE RADAR BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO
THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT FOR NOW...WILL PLAN ON A MENTION
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND OUR NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS GOOD
LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 50S WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. H85 WINDS OF 45 TO 55KTS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30MPH SUSTAINED...THUS
HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RH IS STILL LACKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING...SO HAVE SO LOW POPS
MENTIONED.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...THE MAIN
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY ARE
IN REGARDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS THE GFS WOULD
INITIALLY TAKE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LIFT THIS BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE
SWEEPING IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN
ODDS TO THE EC AND FOR MOST PART GEM THAT FOR THE MOST PART KEEPS
THE FRONT STATIONARY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IS SWEEPS SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH OF I80 ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
POSITIVE NATURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT THIS IS OUR FAVORED SOLUTION AS WELL. THIS RESULTED IN THE
LOWERING OF HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
2/3RD OF THE FA WHERE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TMPS BELOW GOING HIGHS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE
FAR MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH JUST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER /I.E.
BOONE...ANTELOPE...KNOX COUNTIES/ WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT AND OPEN NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE ENDING OF
PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS AND
BRING THE MIX OF RA/SN A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE COOLED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW GOING MOS GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH YET. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT OF KOFK AND WILL SOON MOVE OUT OF KOMA/KLNK AS
WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE AT KOFK. THE CLOUDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MT. THIS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ON FRI MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS LIKELY BY
LATE MORNING.
BOUSTEAD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAD CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 07Z WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WV LOOP SHOWING STRONG VORT MAX COMING OUT OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WHICH MODELS LIFT TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL PASSAGE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SO
HAVE PLACED LOW POPS THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG MENTION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO TURN ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
A MILD START ON SUNDAY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SETUP PROVIDES ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS TIME AROUND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. COULD SEE TEMPORARY
MVFR FOG CONDITIONS THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. COULD ALSO SEE
TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS AT KOMA THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME WEST THIS
MORNING...THEN NORTHWEST BY 15 TO 17Z. BY THEN...COULD ALSO SEE
GUSTS THAT RANGE FROM 18 TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
GUSTS DIMINISH BY 23-00Z.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAD CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 07Z WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WV LOOP SHOWING STRONG VORT MAX COMING OUT OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WHICH MODELS LIFT TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL PASSAGE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SO
HAVE PLACED LOW POPS THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG MENTION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO TURN ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
A MILD START ON SUNDAY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SETUP PROVIDES ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS TIME AROUND.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
255 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAD CLEARED ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT 07Z WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS. WV LOOP SHOWING STRONG VORT MAX COMING OUT OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WHICH MODELS LIFT TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME CLOUD COVER OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNTIL PASSAGE SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. HRRR SUGGEST SOME
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SO
HAVE PLACED LOW POPS THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG MENTION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
WINDY CONDITIONS MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...OTHERWISE GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY.
EXTENDED PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO TURN ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER
A MILD START ON SUNDAY. PATTERN SIMILAR TO THE RECENT SYSTEM AS
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN PARTS OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SETUP PROVIDES ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA WITH
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WHERE COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS TIME AROUND.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO GENERALLY CLEAR TO NEAR LINCOLN
THROUGH 06Z...A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME LOW CIGS
TO RETURN TO SITES. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RETURN OF CIGS/LOWER
VSBYS IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD OUT
OF KS. STRONGER NW WINDS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER MID-LATE THU MORNING...ALTHOUGH
COOL AIR ALOFT AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD POSSIBLY BRING A
PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS WHICH COULD BE AROUND FL020-030 AT KOFK AND
KOMA. HOWEVER...NO MVFR CIGS WERE MENTIONED DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH THIS FORECAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT/CHERMOK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1239 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
AS ALREADY EVIDENCED BY AUTOMATED OBS...AREA WEBCAMS AND A
PERSONAL OBSERVATION TRAVELING TO THE WFO AT 03Z...AT LEAST
PATCHY...SHALLOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...UNLESS
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS ENOUGH TO TURN THE TIDE. PER BOTH
THE HRRR AND NAM VISIBILITY PRODUCTS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A
SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD AREA OF DENSE FOG COULD EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE
MAINLY WITHIN THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN THE OVERALL-LIGHTEST. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON FOG
EVOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW HAVE INSERTED 1 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY WORDING INTO THE FORECAST/HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
IN ALL AREAS TO GET THE BALL ROLLING. IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE
SHAVED GENERALLY 2-3 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURES IN
MOST AREAS...GETTING MORE OF THE CWA DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 30S
EXCEPT FOR UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST. HAVE HARDLY LOOKED AT PRECIP
TRENDS SINCE WALKING IN THE DOOR...BUT WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
THE CWA CONTINUES TO SIT UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WITH THE MAIN LOW LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER AREA...AND TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE S/SW. THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT SOME STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...AND
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON...THERE HASNT BEEN A WHOLE LOT GOING ON TODAY.
AFTER STARTING THE DAY COMPLETELY SOCKED IN WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS
AND CEILINGS ARND 500FT...CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP A
BIT...WITH THE NW CURRENTLY SEEING SOME DECENT SUN...WITH CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE STARTING TO LIFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO
THE REGION...KEEPING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HAVE SHIFTED EAST...SO HAVE
REMOVED POPS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING AT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING...THERE ARE A COUPLE
OF CONCERNS. MAIN ONE IS WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...SLIDING ACROSS KS. DECIDED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING...WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL BEING THERE. NOT
ALL AGREE...AND KEEP ACTIVITY JUST TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN
IS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
AREA AND WINDS STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION
FOR NOW...WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN
FROM THE WEST...BUT EVENING CREW WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IT...AND SEE IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES WORK INTO NC KS IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY
AS THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH...WITH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON DRY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...AND A BREEZY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED...WITH SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. AS
FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN TEMPS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE REGION...WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES INLAND ON
THE WEST COAST. A SECONDARY WEAKER WAVE WILL TRANSCEND SOUTH
ACROSS THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST WILL GENERATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THEREFORE...EXPECTING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...COMBINED WITH DECREASING DEWPOINTS. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO 60S.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH IS ON TAP FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVES SOUTHWEST FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO IDAHO AND MONTANA. THE GFS SOLUTIONS
REMAINS A BIT MORE BROAD WITH THE WAVE AND NOT AS DEEP AS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH NEITHER BECOME CLOSED AT 500 MB. AT THE
SURFACE...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND A SECOND ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN...TIMING REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE TWO LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLDER 850 MB AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE REGION.
BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION AROUND THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...CURRENT THINKING...SHOULD PRECIPITATION BE REALIZED
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST A RAIN SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS SUCH...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
50S...POSSIBLY EVEN 40S FOR HIGHS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ROUTINE ISSUANCE 6 HOURS AGO...THINGS
HAVE DEFINITELY TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WORSE THANKS TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW FOG...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL ADVERTISE A PREVAILING IFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH 15Z...AND WILL ALSO RUN WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THE POSSIBILITY...IF NOT LIKELIHOOD...OF OFF AND ON LIFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING. OUTRIGHT DENSE FOG IN VLIFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT LOW YET UNLESS OBS
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT IT. FOG ISSUES SHOULD ABATE FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE
WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES PICK UP DURING THE DAY...AND HAVE A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS STARTING AT 15Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THESE BREEZES WILL CARRY AN AFTERNOON GUST POTENTIAL
UP TO AROUND 25KT...BEFORE STEADILY SUBSIDING BY EARLY EVENING TO
AROUND 10KT OR LESS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY, BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1120 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS PRIMARILY EAST/NORTH
OF THE BGM AREA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH AT A GOOD PACE
AND EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE NEARLY OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED.
830 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SPED UP POPS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ASSOCIATED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH BAND OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT THEN DROPPED POPS BACK INTO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ONCE IT PASSES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN CWA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
330 AM UPDATE... UL LOW SITTING UP OVR THE DAKOTAS AND EJECTING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CREEPING UP AHD OF LOW
WITH PW VALUES INCRSG TO 40 MM (1.5 INCHES) OVR THE MID-MS VLY.
THIS IS PROGGED TO WORK UP INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN.
04Z HAND ANALYSIS PLACES WMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW IN IOWA INTO NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO AND SLOWLY HEADING NORTH. DWPTS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ARE IN THE 50S AND WL WORK UP THIS WAY
THIS AFTN.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN ACRS LWR MICHIGAN DVLPNG IN VICINITY OF
SFC WMFNT ON NOSE OF LLJ. LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN ZONES
BY 11Z AND OVRSPRDS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN. MAY BE BROKEN ACRS
SRN SXNS THIS AFTN IN THE FORM OF SCTD SHOWERS BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ON SOUTH OF SFC WMFNT, THUS WL KEEP JUST SCTD SHOWER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER OF PA.
AFTN MAXES WL TOP OUT IN THE L/M 60S AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB UP TO ARND
10-12C TDA. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF WAA THAT WL COMMENCE ACRS THE
REGION AS WMFNT PASSES THRU. CLDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LKLY KEEPING TEMPS FM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
PHASING OF S/WVS EXPECTED TONIGHT RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
ACRS THE GREAT LKS. H8 LLJ GETS CRANKING BY MIDNIGHT ACRS THE AREA
TO +60KTS THEN ABV 70KTS BY 09Z. BASED ON TRACK OF APPROX 980MB SFC
LOW ACRS SRN ONTARIO BY ALL MODELS, WITH 00Z NAM BEING A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH, HV DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING. BASED ON
LOCAL SYNOPTIC WIND STUDY 6-HR RISE/FALL COUPLET LOOKS TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK FOR HIGH WIND EVENT AND CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT EXISTING
CNTYS IN WATCH WILL SEE HIGH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WL ALLOW
DAYSHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ACRS RMNG AREAS TDA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND PHASING OF VORT MAXES TONIGHT EXPECT
OCNL MODERATE SHOWERS LATE WITH QPF AMNTS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN
VICINITY OF WMFNT APPCHG 1 INCH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
ARND 0.50 INCHES.
THO INSTABILITY IS VRY POOR THRU 12Z FRIDAY HV ADDED IN AN ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION AS SHOWALTERS/LI VALUES DIP BLO 0C BTWN 09Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. CAPES VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY PUNY DRG THIS TIME WITH JUST
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES, HWVR DYNAMICS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AND
LOW-LVL LR ARE STEEP JUST ALONG AND AHD OF FRONT THUS THINK THAT
THUNDER AT LEAST DESERVES A MENTION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY OVR LK ERIE.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRI MRNG/AFTN WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING INTO THE 60S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA, THO EXTRM WRN ZONES
MAY TOP OUT ARND 60F. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PCPN WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN AREAS WEST OF I-81 AT 18Z AND LINGERING
ACRS ERN ZONES FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO AFT THIS TIME. CAA WL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE VRY END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OVRNGT MINS AND
AFTN MAXES STILL ABV NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROF/ASSOC SFC LOW WL MV INTO AREA FM THE NW BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WL BCM SRLY AHD OF THIS SFC SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SHIFT
ARND TO THE NW AS LOPRES PASSES ON SATURDAY. THIS WL SET THE STAGE
FOR LK EFFECT SHOWERS ON SAT AFTN AND EVENTUALLY A MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVR TO SNOW ON SUN MRNG. HV MADE NO CHGS TO THESE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO NEAR TERM CHALLENGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY AND VERY COLD AS A 1034MB SFC HIPRES
BLDS INTO SW QUEBEC AND BRINGS A NE FLOW INTO THE FCST AREA.
COLDEST NGT SO FAR SEEMS LIKELY WITH LOW IN THE UPR TEENS PSBL MON
MRNG. SFC HI SLOWLY SLIDES EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE UPR
RDG BLDS OVER THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BEGINS THE WAA PROCESS LTR MON
AND CONTG INTO WED. NEXT LOW DVLPG OVER THE LAKES IS HELD OFF BY
THE BLDG RDG AND DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PCPN
WILL BE ON THU AS THE COLD FNT SWEEPS THRU THE AREA. AS IS
TYPICAL...GFS IS A GOOD 12 HRS AHD OF THE EURO IN THE TIMING OF
THE FNTL PASSAGE SO WILL JUST STICK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW UNTIL
THE TIMING IS FIGURED OUT. I WOULD GUESS THAT THE GFS IS A BIT
CLOSER TO THE CORRECT TIME...BUT IN GNRL THE TRUTH LIES BETWEEN.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AHD OF A COLD
FNT. FEW SPOTS BROKE OUT THIS AFTN TO VFR BUT THE TREND LTR AND
OVRNGT WILL BE TO IFR IN NEAR STEADY RAIN AND LGT FOG AS THE
LOWERS LVLS STABILIZE. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE HILLTOP
STATIONS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE LOW DEEPENS AND ADVANCES
EWRD. IT WILL BE TOUGHER TO BRING THE HIGHER WINDS DOWN INTO THE
VLY AND LWR ELEVATION AIRPORTS WITH THE STABLE LYR. DRAMATIC COLD
FNT PASSAGE ARND 15Z WILL BRING A RAPID RETURN TO VFR BUT WITH
VERY GUSTY WLY WINDS AS WE MIX MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE
SFC.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NGT...VFR W/GUSTY WINDS
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR IN SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY CNTRL NY.
SUN...MVFR EARLY CNTRL NY IN -SHRA/-SHSN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON/TUE...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
1122 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY, BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1120 AM UPDATE...SHOWERS NOW CONFINED TO AREAS PRIMARILY EAST/NORTH
OF THE BGM AREA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH AT A GOOD PACE
AND EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TO BE NEARLY OVER BY EARLY
AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR ONEIDA COUNTY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED.
830 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SPED UP POPS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ASSOCIATED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH BAND OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT THEN DROPPED POPS BACK INTO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ONCE IT PASSES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN CWA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
330 AM UPDATE... UL LOW SITTING UP OVR THE DAKOTAS AND EJECTING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CREEPING UP AHD OF LOW
WITH PW VALUES INCRSG TO 40 MM (1.5 INCHES) OVR THE MID-MS VLY.
THIS IS PROGGED TO WORK UP INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN.
04Z HAND ANALYSIS PLACES WMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW IN IOWA INTO NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO AND SLOWLY HEADING NORTH. DWPTS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ARE IN THE 50S AND WL WORK UP THIS WAY
THIS AFTN.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN ACRS LWR MICHIGAN DVLPNG IN VICINITY OF
SFC WMFNT ON NOSE OF LLJ. LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN ZONES
BY 11Z AND OVRSPRDS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN. MAY BE BROKEN ACRS
SRN SXNS THIS AFTN IN THE FORM OF SCTD SHOWERS BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ON SOUTH OF SFC WMFNT, THUS WL KEEP JUST SCTD SHOWER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER OF PA.
AFTN MAXES WL TOP OUT IN THE L/M 60S AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB UP TO ARND
10-12C TDA. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF WAA THAT WL COMMENCE ACRS THE
REGION AS WMFNT PASSES THRU. CLDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LKLY KEEPING TEMPS FM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
PHASING OF S/WVS EXPECTED TONIGHT RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
ACRS THE GREAT LKS. H8 LLJ GETS CRANKING BY MIDNIGHT ACRS THE AREA
TO +60KTS THEN ABV 70KTS BY 09Z. BASED ON TRACK OF APPROX 980MB SFC
LOW ACRS SRN ONTARIO BY ALL MODELS, WITH 00Z NAM BEING A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH, HV DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING. BASED ON
LOCAL SYNOPTIC WIND STUDY 6-HR RISE/FALL COUPLET LOOKS TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK FOR HIGH WIND EVENT AND CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT EXISTING
CNTYS IN WATCH WILL SEE HIGH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WL ALLOW
DAYSHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ACRS RMNG AREAS TDA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND PHASING OF VORT MAXES TONIGHT EXPECT
OCNL MODERATE SHOWERS LATE WITH QPF AMNTS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN
VICINITY OF WMFNT APPCHG 1 INCH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
ARND 0.50 INCHES.
THO INSTABILITY IS VRY POOR THRU 12Z FRIDAY HV ADDED IN AN ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION AS SHOWALTERS/LI VALUES DIP BLO 0C BTWN 09Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. CAPES VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY PUNY DRG THIS TIME WITH JUST
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES, HWVR DYNAMICS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AND
LOW-LVL LR ARE STEEP JUST ALONG AND AHD OF FRONT THUS THINK THAT
THUNDER AT LEAST DESERVES A MENTION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY OVR LK ERIE.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRI MRNG/AFTN WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING INTO THE 60S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA, THO EXTRM WRN ZONES
MAY TOP OUT ARND 60F. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PCPN WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN AREAS WEST OF I-81 AT 18Z AND LINGERING
ACRS ERN ZONES FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO AFT THIS TIME. CAA WL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE VRY END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OVRNGT MINS AND
AFTN MAXES STILL ABV NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROF/ASSOC SFC LOW WL MV INTO AREA FM THE NW BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WL BCM SRLY AHD OF THIS SFC SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SHIFT
ARND TO THE NW AS LOPRES PASSES ON SATURDAY. THIS WL SET THE STAGE
FOR LK EFFECT SHOWERS ON SAT AFTN AND EVENTUALLY A MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVR TO SNOW ON SUN MRNG. HV MADE NO CHGS TO THESE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO NEAR TERM CHALLENGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES AND STILL BASED ON WPC GUIDANCE. PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THIS WEEKEND THEN UL HEIGHTS
BUILD AGAIN WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY TO WED. THURSDAY
MORE SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT AND TROF APPROACH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUIET PD IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN DUE TO DEPARTING UPR
LVL TROF WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING AND RAPIDLY
RISING HGTS EARLY NXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE
CNTRL U.S.. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA LATE
IN THE FCST PD. MAXES MODERATING FROM THE U40S ON MONDAY TO THE
MID 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE
BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO BGM AND MVFR TO AVP AND ITH. MORE
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IN WRN NY AND WRN PA WILL MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 13 AND 17Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE IFR
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH. BY 18Z SOUTH CENT NY AND AVP SHOULD BE
DRY AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT SOME BUT REMAIN MVFR.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR. AT SYR AND RME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OFF
AND ON ALL DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS EVENING SHOWERS
COME BACK IN EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI/FRI NGT...MVFR/IFR BECOMING VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY AS RAIN ENDS.
STRONG GUSTY SW TO W WINDS FRI MRNG...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR IN SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY CNTRL NY.
SUN...MVFR EARLY CNTRL NY IN -SHRA/-SHSN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
834 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY, BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM UPDATE...LOCAL RADARS SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SPED UP POPS THIS MORNING TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ASSOCIATED LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS WITH BAND OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT THEN DROPPED POPS BACK INTO SCATTERED
COVERAGE ONCE IT PASSES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NRN CWA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
330 AM UPDATE... UL LOW SITTING UP OVR THE DAKOTAS AND EJECTING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CREEPING UP AHD OF LOW
WITH PW VALUES INCRSG TO 40 MM (1.5 INCHES) OVR THE MID-MS VLY.
THIS IS PROGGED TO WORK UP INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN.
04Z HAND ANALYSIS PLACES WMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW IN IOWA INTO NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO AND SLOWLY HEADING NORTH. DWPTS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ARE IN THE 50S AND WL WORK UP THIS WAY
THIS AFTN.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN ACRS LWR MICHIGAN DVLPNG IN VICINITY OF
SFC WMFNT ON NOSE OF LLJ. LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN ZONES
BY 11Z AND OVRSPRDS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN. MAY BE BROKEN ACRS
SRN SXNS THIS AFTN IN THE FORM OF SCTD SHOWERS BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ON SOUTH OF SFC WMFNT, THUS WL KEEP JUST SCTD SHOWER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER OF PA.
AFTN MAXES WL TOP OUT IN THE L/M 60S AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB UP TO ARND
10-12C TDA. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF WAA THAT WL COMMENCE ACRS THE
REGION AS WMFNT PASSES THRU. CLDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LKLY KEEPING TEMPS FM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
PHASING OF S/WVS EXPECTED TONIGHT RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
ACRS THE GREAT LKS. H8 LLJ GETS CRANKING BY MIDNIGHT ACRS THE AREA
TO +60KTS THEN ABV 70KTS BY 09Z. BASED ON TRACK OF APPROX 980MB SFC
LOW ACRS SRN ONTARIO BY ALL MODELS, WITH 00Z NAM BEING A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH, HV DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING. BASED ON
LOCAL SYNOPTIC WIND STUDY 6-HR RISE/FALL COUPLET LOOKS TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK FOR HIGH WIND EVENT AND CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT EXISTING
CNTYS IN WATCH WILL SEE HIGH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WL ALLOW
DAYSHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ACRS RMNG AREAS TDA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND PHASING OF VORT MAXES TONIGHT EXPECT
OCNL MODERATE SHOWERS LATE WITH QPF AMNTS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN
VICINITY OF WMFNT APPCHG 1 INCH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
ARND 0.50 INCHES.
THO INSTABILITY IS VRY POOR THRU 12Z FRIDAY HV ADDED IN AN ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION AS SHOWALTERS/LI VALUES DIP BLO 0C BTWN 09Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. CAPES VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY PUNY DRG THIS TIME WITH JUST
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES, HWVR DYNAMICS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AND
LOW-LVL LR ARE STEEP JUST ALONG AND AHD OF FRONT THUS THINK THAT
THUNDER AT LEAST DESERVES A MENTION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY OVR LK ERIE.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRI MRNG/AFTN WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING INTO THE 60S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA, THO EXTRM WRN ZONES
MAY TOP OUT ARND 60F. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PCPN WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN AREAS WEST OF I-81 AT 18Z AND LINGERING
ACRS ERN ZONES FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO AFT THIS TIME. CAA WL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE VRY END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OVRNGT MINS AND
AFTN MAXES STILL ABV NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROF/ASSOC SFC LOW WL MV INTO AREA FM THE NW BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WL BCM SRLY AHD OF THIS SFC SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SHIFT
ARND TO THE NW AS LOPRES PASSES ON SATURDAY. THIS WL SET THE STAGE
FOR LK EFFECT SHOWERS ON SAT AFTN AND EVENTUALLY A MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVR TO SNOW ON SUN MRNG. HV MADE NO CHGS TO THESE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO NEAR TERM CHALLENGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES AND STILL BASED ON WPC GUIDANCE. PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THIS WEEKEND THEN UL HEIGHTS
BUILD AGAIN WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY TO WED. THURSDAY
MORE SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT AND TROF APPROACH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUIET PD IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN DUE TO DEPARTING UPR
LVL TROF WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING AND RAPIDLY
RISING HGTS EARLY NXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE
CNTRL U.S.. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA LATE
IN THE FCST PD. MAXES MODERATING FROM THE U40S ON MONDAY TO THE
MID 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE
BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO BGM AND MVFR TO AVP AND ITH. MORE
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IN WRN NY AND WRN PA WILL MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 13 AND 17Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE IFR
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH. BY 18Z SOUTH CENT NY AND AVP SHOULD BE
DRY AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT SOME BUT REMAIN MVFR.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR. AT SYR AND RME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OFF
AND ON ALL DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS EVENING SHOWERS
COME BACK IN EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI/FRI NGT...MVFR/IFR BECOMING VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY AS RAIN ENDS.
STRONG GUSTY SW TO W WINDS FRI MRNG...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR IN SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY CNTRL NY.
SUN...MVFR EARLY CNTRL NY IN -SHRA/-SHSN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
651 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY, BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
UL LOW SITTING UP OVR THE DAKOTAS AND EJECTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CREEPING UP AHD OF LOW WITH PW VALUES INCRSG
TO 40 MM (1.5 INCHES) OVR THE MID-MS VLY. THIS IS PROGGED TO WORK UP
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN.
04Z HAND ANALYSIS PLACES WMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW IN IOWA INTO NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO AND SLOWLY HEADING NORTH. DWPTS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ARE IN THE 50S AND WL WORK UP THIS WAY
THIS AFTN.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN ACRS LWR MICHIGAN DVLPNG IN VICINITY OF
SFC WMFNT ON NOSE OF LLJ. LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN ZONES
BY 11Z AND OVRSPRDS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN. MAY BE BROKEN ACRS
SRN SXNS THIS AFTN IN THE FORM OF SCTD SHOWERS BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ON SOUTH OF SFC WMFNT, THUS WL KEEP JUST SCTD SHOWER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER OF PA.
AFTN MAXES WL TOP OUT IN THE L/M 60S AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB UP TO ARND
10-12C TDA. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF WAA THAT WL COMMENCE ACRS THE
REGION AS WMFNT PASSES THRU. CLDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LKLY KEEPING TEMPS FM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
PHASING OF S/WVS EXPECTED TONIGHT RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
ACRS THE GREAT LKS. H8 LLJ GETS CRANKING BY MIDNIGHT ACRS THE AREA
TO +60KTS THEN ABV 70KTS BY 09Z. BASED ON TRACK OF APPROX 980MB SFC
LOW ACRS SRN ONTARIO BY ALL MODELS, WITH 00Z NAM BEING A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH, HV DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING. BASED ON
LOCAL SYNOPTIC WIND STUDY 6-HR RISE/FALL COUPLET LOOKS TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK FOR HIGH WIND EVENT AND CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT EXISTING
CNTYS IN WATCH WILL SEE HIGH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WL ALLOW
DAYSHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ACRS RMNG AREAS TDA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND PHASING OF VORT MAXES TONIGHT EXPECT
OCNL MODERATE SHOWERS LATE WITH QPF AMNTS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN
VICINITY OF WMFNT APPCHG 1 INCH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
ARND 0.50 INCHES.
THO INSTABILITY IS VRY POOR THRU 12Z FRIDAY HV ADDED IN AN ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION AS SHOWALTERS/LI VALUES DIP BLO 0C BTWN 09Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. CAPES VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY PUNY DRG THIS TIME WITH JUST
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES, HWVR DYNAMICS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AND
LOW-LVL LR ARE STEEP JUST ALONG AND AHD OF FRONT THUS THINK THAT
THUNDER AT LEAST DESERVES A MENTION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY OVR LK ERIE.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRI MRNG/AFTN WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING INTO THE 60S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA, THO EXTRM WRN ZONES
MAY TOP OUT ARND 60F. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PCPN WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN AREAS WEST OF I-81 AT 18Z AND LINGERING
ACRS ERN ZONES FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO AFT THIS TIME. CAA WL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE VRY END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OVRNGT MINS AND
AFTN MAXES STILL ABV NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROF/ASSOC SFC LOW WL MV INTO AREA FM THE NW BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WL BCM SRLY AHD OF THIS SFC SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SHIFT
ARND TO THE NW AS LOPRES PASSES ON SATURDAY. THIS WL SET THE STAGE
FOR LK EFFECT SHOWERS ON SAT AFTN AND EVENTUALLY A MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVR TO SNOW ON SUN MRNG. HV MADE NO CHGS TO THESE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO NEAR TERM CHALLENGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES AND STILL BASED ON WPC GUIDANCE. PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THIS WEEKEND THEN UL HEIGHTS
BUILD AGAIN WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY TO WED. THURSDAY
MORE SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT AND TROF APPROACH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUIET PD IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN DUE TO DEPARTING UPR
LVL TROF WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING AND RAPIDLY
RISING HGTS EARLY NXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE
CNTRL U.S.. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA LATE
IN THE FCST PD. MAXES MODERATING FROM THE U40S ON MONDAY TO THE
MID 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
7 AM UPDATE...
SATURATED LOW LEVELS DUE TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT HAVE
BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO BGM AND MVFR TO AVP AND ITH. MORE
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS IN WRN NY AND WRN PA WILL MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 13 AND 17Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE IFR
ESPECIALLY AT BGM AND ITH. BY 18Z SOUTH CENT NY AND AVP SHOULD BE
DRY AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. CIGS SHOULD LIFT SOME BUT REMAIN MVFR.
VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR. AT SYR AND RME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OFF
AND ON ALL DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS EVENING SHOWERS
COME BACK IN EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI/FRI NGT...MVFR/IFR BECOMING VFR MIDDAY FRIDAY AS RAIN ENDS.
STRONG GUSTY SW TO W WINDS FRI MRNG...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR IN SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY CNTRL NY.
SUN...MVFR EARLY CNTRL NY IN -SHRA/-SHSN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
339 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS TODAY PRIMARILY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY, BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM UPDATE...
UL LOW SITTING UP OVR THE DAKOTAS AND EJECTING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS CREEPING UP AHD OF LOW WITH PW VALUES INCRSG
TO 40 MM (1.5 INCHES) OVR THE MID-MS VLY. THIS IS PROGGED TO WORK UP
INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN.
04Z HAND ANALYSIS PLACES WMFNT EXTENDING FM SFC LOW IN IOWA INTO NRN
INDIANA AND OHIO AND SLOWLY HEADING NORTH. DWPTS SOUTH OF THE BNDRY
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ARE IN THE 50S AND WL WORK UP THIS WAY
THIS AFTN.
AREA OF MODERATE TO HVY RAIN ACRS LWR MICHIGAN DVLPNG IN VICINITY OF
SFC WMFNT ON NOSE OF LLJ. LATEST HRRR RUN BRINGS PCPN INTO WRN ZONES
BY 11Z AND OVRSPRDS MOST OF THE REGION BY AFTN. MAY BE BROKEN ACRS
SRN SXNS THIS AFTN IN THE FORM OF SCTD SHOWERS BASED ON WHAT IS
CURRENTLY GOING ON SOUTH OF SFC WMFNT, THUS WL KEEP JUST SCTD SHOWER
MENTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NRN TIER OF PA.
AFTN MAXES WL TOP OUT IN THE L/M 60S AS 925MB TEMPS CLIMB UP TO ARND
10-12C TDA. THIS IS ALL COURTESY OF WAA THAT WL COMMENCE ACRS THE
REGION AS WMFNT PASSES THRU. CLDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY LKLY KEEPING TEMPS FM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
PHASING OF S/WVS EXPECTED TONIGHT RESULTING IN DEEPENING SFC LOW
ACRS THE GREAT LKS. H8 LLJ GETS CRANKING BY MIDNIGHT ACRS THE AREA
TO +60KTS THEN ABV 70KTS BY 09Z. BASED ON TRACK OF APPROX 980MB SFC
LOW ACRS SRN ONTARIO BY ALL MODELS, WITH 00Z NAM BEING A TOUCH
FURTHER NORTH, HV DECIDED TO UPGRADE TO HIGH WIND WARNING. BASED ON
LOCAL SYNOPTIC WIND STUDY 6-HR RISE/FALL COUPLET LOOKS TO BE IN THE
BALLPARK FOR HIGH WIND EVENT AND CONFIDENCE IS THERE THAT EXISTING
CNTYS IN WATCH WILL SEE HIGH WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WL ALLOW
DAYSHIFT TO EVALUATE THE NEED FOR WIND ADVISORY ACRS RMNG AREAS TDA.
GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ AND PHASING OF VORT MAXES TONIGHT EXPECT
OCNL MODERATE SHOWERS LATE WITH QPF AMNTS ACRS THE FAR NORTH IN
VICINITY OF WMFNT APPCHG 1 INCH THRU 12Z FRIDAY. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
ARND 0.50 INCHES.
THO INSTABILITY IS VRY POOR THRU 12Z FRIDAY HV ADDED IN AN ISOLD
THUNDER MENTION AS SHOWALTERS/LI VALUES DIP BLO 0C BTWN 09Z AND 15Z
FRIDAY. CAPES VALUES LOOK TO BE PRETTY PUNY DRG THIS TIME WITH JUST
A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES, HWVR DYNAMICS ARE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AND
LOW-LVL LR ARE STEEP JUST ALONG AND AHD OF FRONT THUS THINK THAT
THUNDER AT LEAST DESERVES A MENTION, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
LIGHTNING STRIKES CURRENTLY OVR LK ERIE.
FROPA LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRI MRNG/AFTN WITH HIGH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING INTO THE 60S ACRS MOST OF THE AREA, THO EXTRM WRN ZONES
MAY TOP OUT ARND 60F. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO
PCPN WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN AREAS WEST OF I-81 AT 18Z AND LINGERING
ACRS ERN ZONES FOR ANOTHER HR OR TWO AFT THIS TIME. CAA WL BE
DELAYED UNTIL THE VRY END OF THE SHORT TERM WITH OVRNGT MINS AND
AFTN MAXES STILL ABV NORMAL FOR SATURDAY.
ANOTHER TROF/ASSOC SFC LOW WL MV INTO AREA FM THE NW BY 12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WL BCM SRLY AHD OF THIS SFC SYSTEM AND QUICKLY SHIFT
ARND TO THE NW AS LOPRES PASSES ON SATURDAY. THIS WL SET THE STAGE
FOR LK EFFECT SHOWERS ON SAT AFTN AND EVENTUALLY A MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVR TO SNOW ON SUN MRNG. HV MADE NO CHGS TO THESE GRIDS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO NEAR TERM CHALLENGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES AND STILL BASED ON WPC GUIDANCE. PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF EXITING THIS WEEKEND THEN UL HEIGHTS
BUILD AGAIN WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY TO WED. THURSDAY
MORE SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT AND TROF APPROACH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUIET PD IS IN STORE FOR THE FCST AREA AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF
THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM. LAKE ENHANCED -SHSN DUE TO DEPARTING UPR
LVL TROF WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY...WITH SFC RIDGING AND RAPIDLY
RISING HGTS EARLY NXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DEEP TROF DIGS INTO THE
CNTRL U.S.. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FCST AREA LATE
IN THE FCST PD. MAXES MODERATING FROM THE U40S ON MONDAY TO THE
MID 50S BY WED.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR AND MAYBE IFR THIS
MORNING AS A DEEP STRONG SW BRINGS MOISTURE AND SHOWERS AT LOW
LEVELS. A LOW LEVEL MARINE LAYER HAS GOTTEN TO AVP WITH 1K FT CIGS
AND 2 TO 3 MILES VSBY. THIS WILL CONTINUE AND COULD DROP CIGS TO
IFR. THIS MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE ELM AND BGM BUT NOW LESS
THAN 50 MILES AWAY. MVFR CIGS IN WRN PA WILL COME INTO THE AREA BY
13Z WITH SHOWERS BY 16Z. SHOWERS COULD HAVE MVFR VSBYS. BY 18Z
SOUTH CENT NY AND AVP SHOULD BE DRY AND IN THE WARM SECTOR. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT SOME BUT REMAIN MVFR. VSBYS WILL RETURN TO VFR. AT SYR
AND RME SHOWERS WILL LINGER OFF AND ON ALL DAY WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS. THIS EVENING SHOWERS COME BACK IN EVERYWHERE.
LIGHT E TO S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SSW FLOW IN LOWEST
FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL COULD ALSO CAUSE MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS
TOWARDS 09Z-14Z TIME PERIOD IF ADEQUATE MIXING OF WINDS DOWN TO
SURFACE DOES NOT OCCUR. MOST LIKELY LLWS AT KRME WHERE LOCALIZED
ESE VALLEY WIND WILL OPPOSE THE STRONGER 30-35 KT SSW WIND IN
LOWEST 2 KFT AGL...BUT LEFT OUT LLWS FOR OTHER TERMINALS WHERE IT
WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY /THOUGH POSSIBLE...ESP KELM/.
OUTLOOK...
THU OVERNGT....MVFR/IFR IN SHRA. STRONG GUSTY SSW
WINDS...ESPECIALLY KSYR-KRME.
FRI/FRI NGT...VFR. STRONG GUSTY SW TO W WINDS FRI MRNG...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.
SAT/SAT NGT...MVFR IN SHRA/SHSN PRIMARILY CNTRL NY.
SUN...MVFR EARLY CNTRL NY IN -SHRA/-SHSN...IMPRVG TO VFR.
MON...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-036-037.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MAYBE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED IN THE EXTREME TRIAD AS THEY STRUGGLE
TO GET TO 70 DEGREES WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST. NEW DEVELOPMENT
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION OF THIS FEATURE FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL BE
HARDER AS THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP SHOWS A SWATH OF DRIER
1000-500MB AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH MOVING UP THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY OR AT THE VERY LEAST KEEP
SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. CURRENT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A FEW KNOTS IN THE
PROCESS. EXPECT AT LEAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS THE
DAY GOES ON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SPORADIC DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN BUFKIT
HAVE A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 750 MB TONIGHT WHICH IS WHERE
MOISTURE FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD COME FROM...ABOVE THAT
A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 700 MB SHOULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP BY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TRIAD
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z...15Z AT RDU AND 18Z AT KFAY AND KRWI. INSTABILITY
WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
VERY STRONG THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A STRONGER
SHOWER COULD HELP TO BRING STRONGER 40-50 KNOT 850 MB WINDS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD SURFACE WINDS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BACK AROUND FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS
CLEARLY INDICATED ON MODEL HODOGRAPHS WHICH SHOW SWEEPING CLOCKWISE
HODOGRAPHS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE
SOME ROTATION PRESENT...ESPECIALLY FOR I-95 AND POINTS EAST. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT LATER IN THE EVENING
GIVES FURTHER CREDIBILITY TO THIS THEORY BUT CURRENT SIMULATIONS
SHOW THE FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH OUR CWA BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. AT
THE CURRENT TIME SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SEE TEXT FOR OUR AREA FOR
FRIDAY SIGHTING AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A NON-ZERO
TORNADO THREAT BUT ADDING THE CAVEAT THAT VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND LAPSE RATES MAKE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FAIRLY MUNDANE AND
NOT WORTHY OF A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS POINT.
AS FAR AS QPF VALUES ARE CONCERNED THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM
AVERAGES OUT AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH STRONGER PULSES
POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE TOTALS AT SOME LOCATIONS UP TOWARDS A HALF
OF AN INCH. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALL DAY ON
SATURDAY...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S IN
THE EAST WHERE GREATER INSOLATION WILL OCCUR. BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST...CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGHS
DOWN CLOSER TO 70. ON FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WIND
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 6Z IN
THE TRIAD...CLOSER TO 9Z AT KRDU AND NEAR 12Z IN THE EAST. THIS
TIMING WILL ALSO HELP TO CLEAR THINGS OUT IN THE WEST BEFORE SUNRISE
AND THEREFORE LEAVING ANOTHER STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IN THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE THE TRIAD WILL BE NEAR 50 DEGREES...MIDDLE 60S
ARE STILL LIKELY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA... ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF
NC BY DAWN SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXTEND INTO MID MORNING IN
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING...
THEN EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A DRYING COLUMN. A
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT... ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS... WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC NW TO SE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL DPVA... A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ENOUGH SATURATION
ACCOMPANYING THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER DURING
THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE. THE
MOIST LAYER EXTENDS UP INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE... SO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND AUGMENTED LIFT BY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING... WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO AS WELL... BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ADDING THUNDER AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF COVERAGE.
THE FAIRLY DEEP AND DRYING SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT QPF DESPITE
DECENT COVERAGE... AND MANY PLACES MAY SEE JUST A TRACE... BUT THIS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ALSO MEAN ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THERMAL
STRUCTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS OF 66-73. LOWS 40-45
WITH CLEARING SKIES... AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT
BY CONTINUED MIXING OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND... AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER
EASTERN NOAM BEFORE MODIFYING AND MOVING OFF THE COAST. THE
FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT AFFECTS NC SATURDAY WILL SHIFT
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY SUNDAY... THEN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE
STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS THROUGH
MID WEEK. BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY... THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME COAST WHILE NOSING
SSW INTO NC IN A WEDGE-LIKE FASHION... CAPPED BY A CLOSED MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS (ECMWF HAS A STRONGER RIDGE
CLOSER TO OUR COAST WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND A BIT MORE SE). THIS
FAVORS A PATTERN OF MOIST/STABLE LOW LEVELS (WITH INCREASED MOIST
ATLANTIC INFLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE) CAPPED WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE 800 MB. WE
SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE... PARTICULARLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY... WARMING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE AIR MASS WEAKENS AND SLOWLY WARMS. THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE THURSDAY WITH
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING... BUT ACCORDING TO THE FAVORED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION... THE ATTENDING BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE WRN PIEDMONT. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: RATHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL
SITES WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH LIKELY AND INCREASING A BIT INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TREND FOR THIS WILL BE LESS
FURTHER TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHOWING UP AFTER 6Z OR SO IN THE WEST WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR CEILINGS TO
JUMP BETWEEN LIFR/MVFR. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY WAX AND WANE IN INTENSITY.
FOR FRIDAY EXPECT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT TO ENTER
THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z. RAIN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL MARCH WESTWARD APPROACHING KRDU BY 15Z AND KFAY BY 18Z. KRWI
SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND WILL STAY DOWN AT KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU.
KFAY AND KRWI MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM:
FOR SATURDAY A SECONDARY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS FOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS. BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD ALSO PLAY HAVOC ON
CEILINGS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
231 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM THURSDAY...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FOR THE MOST PART ON TRACK TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MAYBE A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED IN THE EXTREME TRIAD AS THEY STRUGGLE
TO GET TO 70 DEGREES WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT RAIN MOVING SOUTHWEST. NEW DEVELOPMENT
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE OVER UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. ADVECTION OF THIS FEATURE FURTHER TO THE EAST WILL BE
HARDER AS THE LATEST RUN OF THE RAP SHOWS A SWATH OF DRIER
1000-500MB AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH MOVING UP THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AND POINTS EASTWARD.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THINGS DRY OR AT THE VERY LEAST KEEP
SHOWERS TO A MINIMUM. CURRENT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 10
KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN A FEW KNOTS IN THE
PROCESS. EXPECT AT LEAST UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO INCREASE AS THE
DAY GOES ON FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
MISSISSIPPI PUSHES FURTHER EAST.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SPORADIC DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWN IN BUFKIT
HAVE A SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND 750 MB TONIGHT WHICH IS WHERE
MOISTURE FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD COME FROM...ABOVE THAT
A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 700 MB SHOULD KEEP THINGS CAPPED
OVERNIGHT. WITH LIMITED TO NO INSTABILITY...SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY. LOWS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE BEST DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS WILL PASS WELL N/NW OF CENTRAL
NC ON FRI AS THE POTENT SHORTWAVE TRACKS NE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO EASTERN CANADA...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RELATIVELY STRONG
SFC-925 MB CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC-925 MB TROUGH AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY...AND THE
SOUTHERLY LLJ ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE AMPLE
TIME TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH
PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AROUND ~1.75" AND SFC DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 65-67F...EXCELLENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME UPPER
FORCING MAY BE PRESENT FRI/FRI EVENING IN THE FORM OF SMALL
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES IN SW FLOW ALOFT OR IN ASSOC/W THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
LATE FRI NIGHT...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN
FORCING FOR ASCENT FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND THAT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS (ALL SHOWING MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER
CENTRAL NC)...WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECASTS WITH REGARD
TO PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING/AMOUNTS...WITH PRECIP CHANCES EVENTUALLY
DECREASING FROM WEST-EAST FRI NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE DICTATED BY PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BETTER
INSOLATION AND/OR THINNER CLOUD COVER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST
WHERE THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL LINGER LONGER BEFORE ERODING.
WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70F IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 70S /NEAR 80F/ IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUD
COVER ON FRI. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN FROM WEST-EAST DURING THE DAY...AND MLCAPE MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 100-250 J/KG IN THE WEST...THOUGH PERHAPS REACHING 250-500
J/KG IN THE EAST. GIVEN THAT THE BEST DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS WILL PASS
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH FORCING PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE LOWER-LEVELS
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AT BEST IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LET ALONE SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND ATTENDANT INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...ESPECIALLY IF THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS CAN
LINGER LONG ENOUGH IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT AND TRACKING NE FROM ROUGHLY CLT-RDU-ORF FRI AFT/EVE INTO
FRI NIGHT...A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. -VINCENT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA... ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF
NC BY DAWN SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXTEND INTO MID MORNING IN
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95 BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING...
THEN EXPECT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WNW DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A DRYING COLUMN. A
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT... ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS... WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC NW TO SE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL DPVA... A SHOT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE... AND
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ENOUGH SATURATION
ACCOMPANYING THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-600 MB LAYER DURING
THIS TIME TO SUPPORT ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE. THE
MOIST LAYER EXTENDS UP INTO THE -12C TO -16C RANGE... SO GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND AUGMENTED LIFT BY MID-UPPER LEVEL
FORCING... WE COULD SEE A STORM OR TWO AS WELL... BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ADDING THUNDER AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE EXPECTED SPARSITY OF COVERAGE.
THE FAIRLY DEEP AND DRYING SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD LIMIT QPF DESPITE
DECENT COVERAGE... AND MANY PLACES MAY SEE JUST A TRACE... BUT THIS
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR COULD ALSO MEAN ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THESE SHOWERS. THERMAL
STRUCTURE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT HIGHS OF 66-73. LOWS 40-45
WITH CLEARING SKIES... AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT
BY CONTINUED MIXING OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH A
WARMING TREND... AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER
EASTERN NOAM BEFORE MODIFYING AND MOVING OFF THE COAST. THE
FULL-LATITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT AFFECTS NC SATURDAY WILL SHIFT
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY SUNDAY... THEN AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE
STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS THROUGH
MID WEEK. BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH FAIR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY TUESDAY... THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIME COAST WHILE NOSING
SSW INTO NC IN A WEDGE-LIKE FASHION... CAPPED BY A CLOSED MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS (ECMWF HAS A STRONGER RIDGE
CLOSER TO OUR COAST WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND A BIT MORE SE). THIS
FAVORS A PATTERN OF MOIST/STABLE LOW LEVELS (WITH INCREASED MOIST
ATLANTIC INFLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE) CAPPED WITH DRY/STABLE AIR ABOVE 800 MB. WE
SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY... WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME DRIZZLE... PARTICULARLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WRN PIEDMONT HEADING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY... WARMING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY AS THE WEDGE AIR MASS WEAKENS AND SLOWLY WARMS. THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL START TO LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE THURSDAY WITH
ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING... BUT ACCORDING TO THE FAVORED
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION... THE ATTENDING BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD
HOLD WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL INCLUDE JUST A
SMALL CHANCE OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAINLY IN THE WRN PIEDMONT. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: RATHER COMPLICATED TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT ALL
SITES WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH LIKELY AND INCREASING A BIT INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART...TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
BUT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS AT
THIS TIME. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE TREND FOR THIS WILL BE LESS
FURTHER TO THE EAST. OVERNIGHT...SOME LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHOWING UP AFTER 6Z OR SO IN THE WEST WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY
THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON FOR CEILINGS TO
JUMP BETWEEN LIFR/MVFR. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT MAY WAX AND WANE IN INTENSITY.
FOR FRIDAY EXPECT THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT TO ENTER
THE TRIAD AROUND 12Z. RAIN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION
WILL MARCH WESTWARD APPROACHING KRDU BY 15Z AND KFAY BY 18Z. KRWI
SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GO DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRE
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION AND WILL STAY DOWN AT KINT...KGSO...AND KRDU.
KFAY AND KRWI MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM:
FOR SATURDAY A SECONDARY WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA AND MAY PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS FOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS. BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW AND A POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SITUATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD ALSO PLAY HAVOC ON
CEILINGS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...ELLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
HAVE LIMITED PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THE MID TO LATE MORNING TO AREAS
EAST OF THE VALLEY...WHERE SOME VISIBILITIES ARE STILL AROUND 1
SM. THE EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND
ROSEAU TO GRAFTON TO CARRINGTON. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS DECK THROUGH THE DAY...AND ITS EFFECTS ON HIGH
TEMPS. OTHERWISE...MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE. SEEING SOME ECHOES UPSTREAM FROM
THE CANADIAN RADARS. THE HRRR BRINGS SOME WEAKENING ECHOES INTO
THE DVL BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
NOW...WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
WHEN TO END DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
CLEARING LINE HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THINK WITH LIGHT
WEST WINDS STARTING UP WE WILL SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...SOME SPOTS ARE STILL DOWN AROUND 1/2 MILE...AND WE
ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR FOG. WILL HOLD
ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THE 12Z UPDATE.
THE WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS. LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THAT AREA INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FURTHER WEST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN INTO ND
AND BRINGING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN...AND WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING SOME MIXING...THINK
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EVEN WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS ALL START BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS...STARTING THEM IN THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT...REDUCING CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS ADVECTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DID NOT DROP LOWS MUCH...ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BOTH SHOWING A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EJECTING SHORT-WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WITH THE
ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH THE THREAT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY MID-WEEK. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LINGERING LIFR CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN WILL SLOWLY ERODE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORENOON...WITH
IFR /MVFR/ CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO NCNTRL AND NTRL MN THROUGH
TEH REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS EASTERN ND
INTO THE RRV WILL SEE AN INCREASING HIDG CLOUD DECK THROUGH MIDDAY
AND INTO TEH AFTERNOON... WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MAKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
313 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
WHEN TO END DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
CLEARING LINE HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD. VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THINK WITH LIGHT
WEST WINDS STARTING UP WE WILL SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE. ON THE
OTHER HAND...SOME SPOTS ARE STILL DOWN AROUND 1/2 MILE...AND WE
ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR FOG. WILL HOLD
ONTO THE ADVISORY FOR NOW AND TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THE 12Z UPDATE.
THE WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EASTWARD TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ALL ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE EASTERN COUNTIES SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS. LOWERED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THAT AREA INTO THE LOWER 40S...WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FURTHER WEST WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME
SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN INTO ND
AND BRINGING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH IT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN...AND WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING SOME MIXING...THINK
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S EVEN WITH SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS ALL START BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP
INTO THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS...STARTING THEM IN THE
NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT...REDUCING CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS ADVECTING IN SOME SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR DID NOT DROP LOWS MUCH...ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S. SATURDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
40S. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AND MIXING WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW 30S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...00 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT BOTH SHOWING A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH STALLING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EJECTING SHORT-WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WITH THE
ECMWF MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS. EITHER WAY...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN WITH THE THREAT FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
BY MID-WEEK. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR HEIGHT AND
TIMING PURPOSES AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ015>017-
022>024-027-028-030>032-040.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/ROGERS
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH 925MB-850MB WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...NOT SEEING MUCH SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE UNTIL CLOSER TO NOON ON THURSDAY. THE
RAP/HRRR HAVE INDICATED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING
ALONG WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS). FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THIS AREA UNTIL 10AM THURSDAY. WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF
DENSE FOG ALREADY...AND DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
CHALLENGES FOR THE FORECAST INCLUDE TEMPS AND ENDING TIME OF THE
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST.
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/TEMP
ADVECTION IN THE SE THIRD OF THE FA. TOWARD 06Z 850MB WINDS
INCREASE AND BECOME S TO SWERLY. ALSO SFC WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
WEST ALTHOUGH REMAIN LIGHT. DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH SATURATED AIRMASS AND THE FOG OCCURRENCE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGHER DEW POINT AIR...DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY DELAY
THE TIMING OF EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRATUS DECK
THURSDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY 500MB UPPER WAVE AND WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN FA WITH NW SFC WINDS AND SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR...ALTHOUGH MIXING STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE IN THE
LEAST...SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT. WILL GO WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
CLOUDS AND INCREASED MIXING WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW
30S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION ALONG THE 500MB NW
FLOW FRIDAY. THERMAL COLUMN REMAINS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL
LIQUID PTYPE WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP ALONG
FROPA OR UNDER COLD POOL ALOFT. BEHIND FROPA WINDS WILL BE STRONG
AS 30KTS OR SO IS AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM 850MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CYCLONIC FLOW MAY KEEP CLOUDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH SLIDE EAST WITH RETURN
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...SFC LOW WILL GO JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER GIVING SOME CHANCE FOR MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP
ALONG THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND FOR
A POSSIBLE RA/SN MIX OF LIGHT PRECIP SUN NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTH.
NOT MUCH WRAP AROUND PRECIP WITH THIS EVENT AS SFC-UPPER LOW REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH NORTH. 12Z EURO CAME IN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH HOWEVER SO
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WHICH WOULD MEAN
HIGHER POPS IN THE NORTH. OTHERWISE A 500 MB SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. MODELS DIFFER
ON TRACK AND TIMING BUT OVERALL SHOW SYSTEM COMING OUT AS A
POSITIVE TILT AND FAIRLY WEAK LOW MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP MON- TUE WITH THIS...WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM
INDICATING BRUNT MAY BE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH. 12Z GFS HOWEVER IS
A BIT STRONGER AND COLDER AND WOULD SIGNAL MORE WINTRY PRECIP THAN
THE ALL BLEND TOOL USED FOR THE FORECAST WOULD INDICATE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WED WITH A SEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ONLY SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. USED THE RAP GUIDANCE FOR HEIGHT AND
TIMING PURPOSES AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ015>017-
022>024-027-028-030>032-040.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
123 PM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SHOWERS.
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO NEAR-TERM POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
LGT RAIN SHWRS IN FCST AREA. WITH CLD CVR BCMG MORE SOLID...TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO INCR MUCH ABV LWR 70S. AS PREVLY THOUGHT...MAIN
MDT-HVY RAIN WILL BE WITH BAND OF SHWRS ALONG CDFNT. PRIOR TO THE
ARRIVAL OF THE BNDRY...OCNL SHWRS XPCD. POPS WERE INCRD DURG THIS
PD AND OCNL WORDING WAS INCLUDED THRU 0600 UTC...AFTER WHICH
WDSPRD WORDING WAS USED TO REFLECT MORE CONSISTENT CVRG OF PCPN.
SHWRS WILL VACATE FRI MRNG...WITH FOCUS FOR POPS MAINLY IN ERN
ZONES AND ALONG TYPICAL UPSLP-FOCUSED AREAS.
WIND ADZY RMNS IN EFFECT TNGT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. VERY
STRONG H9/H8 FLOW STILL XPCD TO PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVNGT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT...MOIST AMS WILL RMN IN PLACE AS LAPSE
RATES ABV THE SFC STEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. THUS...WDSPRD CLD CVR
LKLY IN THE FORM OF STRATOCU SHOULD CONT ON FRI.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREV FCST THINKING REGARDING MUCH ADVERTISED SYS
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
SOME -SHRA TO MOVE THRU BY EARLY AFTN AS RUC AND ESPECIALLY HRRR
SHOWS SOME MID LVL FORCING IN WAA MOVING ACROSS. DIDNT GET TOO
CARRIED AWAY WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW AMID DRY LLVLS
BUT ALLOWED FOR CHC POPS W OF THE MTNS WITH SOME LKLY FOR SE OH. MAY
END UP INCREASING POPS MORE W LOWLANDS/NE KY AND ESPECIALLY SE OH
FOR THIS AFTN SHOULD THESE TRENDS IN MDLS CONT.
THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE WITH PREFRONTAL BAND THIS EVE AND
THEN FRONTAL ACTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TRICK OR TREATERS WILL GET
WET IN SE OH AND NE KY...PERHAPS EVEN W LOWLANDS. NOT SURE HOW
STRONG PREFRONTAL BAND IS ONCE INTO AREA THIS EVE GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SE OH STANDS BEST SHOT OF SEEING LOW TOPPED QLCS
BEFORE PROBABLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES E. ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
ENTER SE OH ARND 06Z...CROSSING OH RVR BY 09Z...AND EXITING MTNS
ARND 12Z. EXPECT A DECENT FRONTAL BAND WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE. DESPITE
LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY...LEFT SOME LOW THUNDER CHC IN...GIVING A
NOD TO STRONG LLJ AND UPR TROF TRYING TO GO NEG TILT.
THIS ALL LEADS TO THE WIND CONCERN. SPC CONT TO KEEP SVR SLIGHT RISK
W OF AREA. STILL...THERE IS CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE FRONTAL SHRA
TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THAT 70 KT LLJ TO SFC. AFTER SOME COORDINATION
WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FELT PRUDENT TO HANDLE THIS
WITH A WIND ADV FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAINOUS CO INCLUDING SW VA GIVEN
THESE ARE SYNOPTIC WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
AS NOT AS CONFIDENT ON SEEING CRITERIA GUSTS EVEN WITH ANY STOUT
FRONTAL SHRA. STILL EXPECT SOME 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS THOUGH. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRONG GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...UNLESS THIS SYS
SPEEDS UP. HARD TO GET STRONG GUSTS ON WAA WITHOUT SOME HELP FROM
CONVECTIVE SHRA...ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE AN OVC SKY
OF MID AND HI CLDS.
FOR TEMPS...ELECTED TO GO CLOSER TO COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TDY WITH
ALL THE CLDS AND MAYBE SOME SHRA IN AFTN W ZONES. STILL HAVE UPR 60S
TO LWR 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WAA.
TONIGHTS NUMBERS LOOKED GOOD FROM PREV FCST AND ONLY NEEDED SOME
TWEAKING TO ACCOUNT FOR FALLING TEMPS LATE IN SE OH/NE KY POST
FRONTAL AND IMPROVING SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW MUCH. WILL STAY NEAR CURRENT FORECAST FOR
NOW...AS THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WARM
SYSTEM MOVING IN AT THE END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGE AND IN CHARGE
IN BETWEEN.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN W TO NW FLOW BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ LONG WAVE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST THING SUN
MORNING...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
AS THE CLOUD TOPS LOWER AND WE LOSE CRYSTAL GROWTH...PRECIPITATION
MAY END BEFORE A SWITCH OVER AT LOCATIONS LIKE EKN AND BKW.
AFTER THE COLD START...THE WEATHER WARMS UP EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE
L/W TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS QUICKLY E...AND A L/W RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE SFC
HIGH PASSES N OF THE AREA EARLY MON BUT SFC RIDGING DOWN THE E SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS PERSISTS INTO WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LONG ATLANTIC FETCH S OF THE LARGE HIGH WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE CLOUDS
TO THE EASTERN SLOPES BY TUE. MEANWHILE...LONG FETCH UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CARRY MID AND HIGH CLOUD INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING TUE AS WELL.
HAVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS STARTING WED...AT FIRST ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND IN THE W WITH THE TYPICAL S FLOW SHADOW ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THAT THEN GRADUALLY FILLS IN WED NT. WITH WPC
BEING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...KEPT THE
FRONT W OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...12Z THU...THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT ABOUT HALF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
THE 12Z ECMWF ADDED A NEW TWIST...WITH A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES KEEPING THE FRONT FROM REACHING ALL BUT
PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH ITS
240 HR RUN.
USED MOSTLY AN ECE/WPC BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE MEX ALSO
BLENDED IN FOR LOWS EARLY ON. LEANED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE MILD STRONG S FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
FORECAST OF WINDS KEEPING CIGS / VIS MVFR/VFR FOR MOST OF THE
EVENT. BRIEF DROPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFT 13Z FRI WITH WINDS SUBSIDING
AND CIGS BECOMING VFR.
WHERE TAFS CAN GO WRONG:
- CIGS AND VIS COULD BE LOWER WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED.
- WINDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FORECAST
- CLEARING WILL OCCUR 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IS POSSIBLE AT EKN AND BKW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KRAMAR /PBZ/
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...98 / FORMER RLX NUMBER 29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
646 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SHOWERS.
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHRA MOVING THRU THE AREA...FALLING OUT OF A MID
DECK. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THIS WILL BE THE RULE TODAY
ACROSS W LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY NE KY/SE OH. ELECTED TO SPEED UP
BRINGING IN THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THIS AFTN.
STILL EXPECT THE SHRA TO VERY LIGHT IN NATURE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREV FCST THINKING REGARDING MUCH ADVERTISED SYS
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
SOME -SHRA TO MOVE THRU BY EARLY AFTN AS RUC AND ESPECIALLY HRRR
SHOWS SOME MID LVL FORCING IN WAA MOVING ACROSS. DIDNT GET TOO
CARRIED AWAY WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW AMID DRY LLVLS
BUT ALLOWED FOR CHC POPS W OF THE MTNS WITH SOME LKLY FOR SE OH. MAY
END UP INCREASING POPS MORE W LOWLANDS/NE KY AND ESPECIALLY SE OH
FOR THIS AFTN SHOULD THESE TRENDS IN MDLS CONT.
THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE WITH PREFRONTAL BAND THIS EVE AND
THEN FRONTAL ACTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TRICK OR TREATERS WILL GET
WET IN SE OH AND NE KY...PERHAPS EVEN W LOWLANDS. NOT SURE HOW
STRONG PREFRONTAL BAND IS ONCE INTO AREA THIS EVE GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SE OH STANDS BEST SHOT OF SEEING LOW TOPPED QLCS
BEFORE PROBABLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES E. ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
ENTER SE OH ARND 06Z...CROSSING OH RVR BY 09Z...AND EXITING MTNS
ARND 12Z. EXPECT A DECENT FRONTAL BAND WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE. DESPITE
LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY...LEFT SOME LOW THUNDER CHC IN...GIVING A
NOD TO STRONG LLJ AND UPR TROF TRYING TO GO NEG TILT.
THIS ALL LEADS TO THE WIND CONCERN. SPC CONT TO KEEP SVR SLIGHT RISK
W OF AREA. STILL...THERE IS CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE FRONTAL SHRA
TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THAT 70 KT LLJ TO SFC. AFTER SOME COORDINATION
WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FELT PRUDENT TO HANDLE THIS
WITH A WIND ADV FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAINOUS CO INCLUDING SW VA GIVEN
THESE ARE SYNOPTIC WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
AS NOT AS CONFIDENT ON SEEING CRITERIA GUSTS EVEN WITH ANY STOUT
FRONTAL SHRA. STILL EXPECT SOME 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS THOUGH. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRONG GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...UNLESS THIS SYS
SPEEDS UP. HARD TO GET STRONG GUSTS ON WAA WITHOUT SOME HELP FROM
CONVECTIVE SHRA...ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE AN OVC SKY
OF MID AND HI CLDS.
FOR TEMPS...ELECTED TO GO CLOSER TO COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TDY WITH
ALL THE CLDS AND MAYBE SOME SHRA IN AFTN W ZONES. STILL HAVE UPR 60S
TO LWR 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WAA.
TONIGHTS NUMBERS LOOKED GOOD FROM PREV FCST AND ONLY NEEDED SOME
TWEAKING TO ACCOUNT FOR FALLING TEMPS LATE IN SE OH/NE KY POST
FRONTAL AND IMPROVING SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING AWAY
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS AN OUTLIER HERE...AS IT DEVELOPS A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND SKIRTS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE MUCH FURTHER
EAST. WILL DISCOUNT THE HANDLING OF THIS WAVE BY THE NAM.
MOS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE STILL LOOKING WAY TOO WARM BASED ON 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT CONSIDERABLY.
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW
MUCH. WILL STAY NEAR CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW...AS THIS APPEARS TO
BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WARM
SYSTEM MOVING IN AT THE END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGE AND IN CHARGE
IN BETWEEN.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN W TO NW FLOW BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ LONG WAVE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST THING SUN
MORNING...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
AS THE CLOUD TOPS LOWER AND WE LOSE CRYSTAL GROWTH...PRECIPITATION
MAY END BEFORE A SWITCH OVER AT LOCATIONS LIKE EKN AND BKW.
AFTER THE COLD START...THE WEATHER WARMS UP EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE
L/W TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS QUICKLY E...AND A L/W RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE SFC
HIGH PASSES N OF THE AREA EARLY MON BUT SFC RIDGING DOWN THE E SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS PERSISTS INTO WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LONG ATLANTIC FETCH S OF THE LARGE HIGH WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE CLOUDS
TO THE EASTERN SLOPES BY TUE. MEANWHILE...LONG FETCH UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CARRY MID AND HIGH CLOUD INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING TUE AS WELL.
HAVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS STARTING WED...AT FIRST ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND IN THE W WITH THE TYPICAL S FLOW SHADOW ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THAT THEN GRADUALLY FILLS IN WED NT. WITH WPC
BEING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...KEPT THE
FRONT W OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...12Z THU...THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT ABOUT HALF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
THE 12Z ECMWF ADDED A NEW TWIST...WITH A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES KEEPING THE FRONT FROM REACHING ALL BUT
PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH ITS
240 HR RUN.
USED MOSTLY AN ECE/WPC BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE MEX ALSO
BLENDED IN FOR LOWS EARLY ON. LEANED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE MILD STRONG S FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH A BKN TO OVC DECK OF
MID/HI CLDS AND SOME VERY LIGHT SHRA FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG AND W
OF OH RVR. CIGS LWR LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVE AS PREFRONTAL
SHRA WORK IN FROM W. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD SE OH AFTER 21Z AND
TAKING UNTIL PERHAPS 06Z ELSEWHERE...GIVEN STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. SFC FRONT TO MAKE INROADS INTO SE OH BY 06Z...CROSSING OH
RVR BY 09Z...AND EXITING MTNS ARND 12Z. SOME IFR CIGS/VSBY
POSSIBLE WITH PREFRONTAL BAND AND ACTUAL FRONTAL BAND. S TO SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING TDY WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW HRS OF
LLWS CONCERNS FOR LOWLAND TAF SITES. HELD OFF IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE
AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 09Z AMENDMENT. WITH EXPECTED OVC SKY
TDY AND WAA NATURE TO FLOW...THINK WIND GUSTS WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK ACROSS THE TERMINALS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS DESPITE
APPROACHING LLJ. DID INCREASE THE GUSTS TONIGHT TO NEAR 30 KTS.
MTN SITES COULD GUST HIGHER BY 06Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO
CARRIED AWAY AT THIS DISTANCE AS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE STOUT
CONVECTIVE SHRA TO BRING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE OH RVR
SITES LOSING POST FRONTAL STRATUS BY 12Z WITH A DRYING COLUMN.
ALSO LET GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER FROPA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: WINDS MAY NOT BE AS GUSTY TDY. TIMING OF SHRA
MAY VARY HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
322 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SHOWERS.
COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A REINFORCING FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREV FCST THINKING REGARDING MUCH ADVERTISED SYS
TO AFFECT THE AREA THIS HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
SOME -SHRA TO MOVE THRU BY EARLY AFTN AS RUC AND ESPECIALLY HRRR
SHOWS SOME MID LVL FORCING IN WAA MOVING ACROSS. DIDNT GET TOO
CARRIED AWAY WITH THIS GIVEN STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW AMID DRY LLVLS
BUT ALLOWED FOR CHC POPS W OF THE MTNS WITH SOME LKLY FOR SE OH. MAY
END UP INCREASING POPS MORE W LOWLANDS/NE KY AND ESPECIALLY SE OH
FOR THIS AFTN SHOULD THESE TRENDS IN MDLS CONT.
THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE WITH PREFRONTAL BAND THIS EVE AND
THEN FRONTAL ACTION. IT IS LOOKING LIKE TRICK OR TREATERS WILL GET
WET IN SE OH AND NE KY...PERHAPS EVEN W LOWLANDS. NOT SURE HOW
STRONG PREFRONTAL BAND IS ONCE INTO AREA THIS EVE GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SE OH STANDS BEST SHOT OF SEEING LOW TOPPED QLCS
BEFORE PROBABLY WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES E. ACTUAL COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
ENTER SE OH ARND 06Z...CROSSING OH RVR BY 09Z...AND EXITING MTNS
ARND 12Z. EXPECT A DECENT FRONTAL BAND WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE. DESPITE
LACK OF ANY INSTABILITY...LEFT SOME LOW THUNDER CHC IN...GIVING A
NOD TO STRONG LLJ AND UPR TROF TRYING TO GO NEG TILT.
THIS ALL LEADS TO THE WIND CONCERN. SPC CONT TO KEEP SVR SLIGHT RISK
W OF AREA. STILL...THERE IS CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE TYPE FRONTAL SHRA
TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THAT 70 KT LLJ TO SFC. AFTER SOME COORDINATION
WITH SOME OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES FELT PRUDENT TO HANDLE THIS
WITH A WIND ADV FOR ALL OF THE MOUNTAINOUS CO INCLUDING SW VA GIVEN
THESE ARE SYNOPTIC WINDS. HELD OFF ON ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
AS NOT AS CONFIDENT ON SEEING CRITERIA GUSTS EVEN WITH ANY STOUT
FRONTAL SHRA. STILL EXPECT SOME 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS THOUGH. NOT
EXPECTING THE STRONG GUSTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...UNLESS THIS SYS
SPEEDS UP. HARD TO GET STRONG GUSTS ON WAA WITHOUT SOME HELP FROM
CONVECTIVE SHRA...ESPECIALLY WITH WHAT WILL PROBABLY BE AN OVC SKY
OF MID AND HI CLDS.
FOR TEMPS...ELECTED TO GO CLOSER TO COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TDY WITH
ALL THE CLDS AND MAYBE SOME SHRA IN AFTN W ZONES. STILL HAVE UPR 60S
TO LWR 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WAA.
TONIGHTS NUMBERS LOOKED GOOD FROM PREV FCST AND ONLY NEEDED SOME
TWEAKING TO ACCOUNT FOR FALLING TEMPS LATE IN SE OH/NE KY POST
FRONTAL AND IMPROVING SKY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONT MOVING AWAY
QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS AN OUTLIER HERE...AS IT DEVELOPS A
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT AND SKIRTS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THE
ECMWF...GFS...AND CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING THE WAVE MUCH FURTHER
EAST. WILL DISCOUNT THE HANDLING OF THIS WAVE BY THE NAM.
MOS HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE STILL LOOKING WAY TOO WARM BASED ON 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND BEING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT CONSIDERABLY.
A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND HOW
MUCH. WILL STAY NEAR CURRENT FORECAST FOR NOW...AS THIS APPEARS TO
BE A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WARM
SYSTEM MOVING IN AT THE END...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGE AND IN CHARGE
IN BETWEEN.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN W TO NW FLOW BENEATH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/ LONG WAVE TROUGH RIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT INTO FIRST THING SUN
MORNING...BUT WITH A SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS EARLY ON OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING AS THE PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN.
AS THE CLOUD TOPS LOWER AND WE LOSE CRYSTAL GROWTH...PRECIPITATION
MAY END BEFORE A SWITCH OVER AT LOCATIONS LIKE EKN AND BKW.
AFTER THE COLD START...THE WEATHER WARMS UP EARLY NEXT WEAK AS THE
L/W TROUGH POSITION SHIFTS QUICKLY E...AND A L/W RIDGE AXIS BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE E COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LARGE SFC
HIGH PASSES N OF THE AREA EARLY MON BUT SFC RIDGING DOWN THE E SIDE
OF THE APPALACHIANS PERSISTS INTO WED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
LONG ATLANTIC FETCH S OF THE LARGE HIGH WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE CLOUDS
TO THE EASTERN SLOPES BY TUE. MEANWHILE...LONG FETCH UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CARRY MID AND HIGH CLOUD INTO THE
AREA BEGINNING TUE AS WELL.
HAVE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS STARTING WED...AT FIRST ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND IN THE W WITH THE TYPICAL S FLOW SHADOW ACROSS
THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA THAT THEN GRADUALLY FILLS IN WED NT. WITH WPC
BEING SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...KEPT THE
FRONT W OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...12Z THU...THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT ABOUT HALF THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
THE 12Z ECMWF ADDED A NEW TWIST...WITH A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SERN STATES KEEPING THE FRONT FROM REACHING ALL BUT
PERHAPS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH ITS
240 HR RUN.
USED MOSTLY AN ECE/WPC BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE MEX ALSO
BLENDED IN FOR LOWS EARLY ON. LEANED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD IN THE MILD STRONG S FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT TO THE W.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTN WITH A BKN TO OVC DECK OF
MID/HI CLDS. CIGS LWR LATE THIS AFTN AND INTO THIS EVE AS PREFRONTAL
SHRA WORK IN FROM W. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD SE OH AFTER 21Z AND
TAKING UNTIL PERHAPS 06Z ELSEWHERE...GIVEN STRONG LLVL DOWNSLOPING
FLOW. SFC FRONT TO MAKE INROADS INTO SE OH BY 06Z...CROSSING OH RVR
BY 09Z...AND EXITING MTNS ARND 12Z. SOME IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE WITH
PREFRONTAL BAND AND ACTUAL FRONTAL BAND. S TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
INCREASING TDY WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW HRS OF LLWS CONCERNS FOR
LOWLAND TAF SITES. HELD OFF IN THE 06Z ISSUANCE AND WILL REEVALUATE
FOR THE 09Z AMENDMENT. WITH EXPECTED OVC SKY TDY AND WAA NATURE TO
FLOW...THINK WIND GUSTS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS DESPITE APPROACHING LLJ. DID
INCREASE THE GUSTS TONIGHT TO NEAR 30 KTS. MTN SITES COULD GUST
HIGHER BY 06Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED AWAY AT THIS
DISTANCE AS IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE STOUT CONVECTIVE SHRA TO BRING
DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS. HAVE OH RVR SITES LOSING POST FRONTAL
STRATUS BY 12Z WITH A DRYING COLUMN. ALSO LET GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER
FROPA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: WINDS MAY NOT BE AS GUSTY TDY. TIMING OF SHRA
MAY VARY HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 10/31/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
WVZ033>038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
VAZ003-004.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
.AVIATION...
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENT LOCATED IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. GUSTS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. MOST OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 10-11Z.
MEANWHILE...IFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER
THE STORMS AND RAIN MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...BUT WILL GET A MUCH
STRONGER PUSH AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
AVIATION...
STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP OR STRENGTHEN. BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEVELOP SHOULD ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
BETTER LIFT ARRIVES. MEANWHILE...IFR CEILINGS TO NEAR MFVR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAOMA WITH MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH VFR CEILINGS. RECENT HRRR RUN IS FASTER WITH PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AS THIS IS PREFERRED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN OK...WITH AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE
REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT IN KS...BUT HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY WITH
LITTLE MLCAPE IN PLAY. HIGHER INSTABILITY IS PRESENT NEAR THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS SW OK AND W N TX. EXPECT SOME
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THERE AS ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(SIGNS OF LIFT NOW EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN N TX) WITHIN SW FLOW
MOVES OVERHEAD COMBINING WITH SOME ENHANCED SURFACE CONFLUENCE.
SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY KEEP AT OR JUST BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS. LATER TONIGHT RAPID HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIKELY RESULTING
IN MORE DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY OVER EXTREME SE OK. THE FRONT
AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS BOTH APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED SO WILL
LINGER AT LEAST SCHC POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA...AND
SOME CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DPVA AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THIS REGION.
THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS WILL FINALLY PASS OVER THE I35 CORRIDOR JUST
BEFORE LUNCHTIME AND RAPID CLEARING WILL FOLLOW. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING...BUT DECOUPLE
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. LOWS WILL DROP MAINLY BACK INTO THE 40S
FRIDAY. THE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
MORNING TRAVERSING THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SWINGING ANOTHER MID
TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. A
COLDER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH A ~1025 HIGH IN
PLACE OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY SAT MORNING. THIS WILL DROP
TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S WITH SOME FREEZING
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER NW OK. THESE COLDER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF AHEAD OF A DIGGING MID TO UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN INTO THE
EXTENDED AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE
REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 63 67 45 71 / 60 20 0 0
HOBART OK 59 69 45 70 / 30 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 63 72 46 75 / 60 10 0 0
GAGE OK 47 66 38 67 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 54 65 41 67 / 80 40 0 0
DURANT OK 64 75 50 76 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
REST OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS
BEING PULLED N AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT MORNING...WITH VALUES IN EXCESS
OF ONE INCH SEEN IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE. WITH
THE STRONG DYNAMICS...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO SEE A DECENT RAINFALL ALONG
AND HEAD OF THE FRONT. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE CASCADES
GOES...MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING RAPIDLY FALLING
SNOW LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT SAT...DOWN TO NEAR 3K FT BY THE END OF
THE DAY. A MODERATE NW FLOW ENSUES AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUN
PROVIDING OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
SNOW FOR THE CASCADES SAT THROUGH SUN. SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
APPEAR THE PERIOD LIKELIEST FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL AS THE COLD CORE
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS AND H8 FLOW IS AT ITS STRONGEST...THEN JUST A SLOW
DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH SUN AS THE FLOW WEAKENS. WILL KEEP
SHOWER LIKELIHOOD IN THE LOWLANDS HIGH THROUGH SAT AS COLD CORE ALOFT
MOVES ACROSS ENHANCING INSTABILITY...THEN SLOWLY LOWER POPS IN THE
VALLEYS SUN.
NO SOONER DOES ONE SYSTEM LEAVE THAN ANOTHER APPROACHES MON. POPS
WILL WANE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
E...BUT WILL AGAIN RAISE CHANCES FOR RAIN MON AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES OFFSHORE. A DEEP LAYER OF MOIST ISENTROPIC
LIFT...FROM 285 THROUGH 300K ISENTROPES...PUSHES IN FROM THE W LATE
IN THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TIMING REMAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING RAIN LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS IT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAC NW. THIS IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED PER THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...
BUT THE ECMWF MAINTAINS MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT...AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...THAT WEDNESDAY MAY BE
DRY MOST OF THE DAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
ARRIVE LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BEGIN TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF DEEPENS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
MOVES IT ONSHORE NEAR THE WA/OR BORDER...WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION
DEPICTS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT REMAINS OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES FURTHER
SOUTH BEFORE MOVING INTO THE N CA COAST. THEREFORE KEPT LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THURS/FRI UNTIL BETTER CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...GRADUAL INCREASE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY...AS
RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP. BRISK S WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON THE
COAST AS WELL. RAIN AND MVFR WILL SPREAD ACROSS REST OF REGION
AFTER 09Z. FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE AROUND 12Z...THEN TO CASCADES
BY 17Z. MAY HAVE A FEW TSTORMS ALONG THE COAST AS FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE.
BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS S WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR THROUGH 10Z...THEN INCREASING MVFR
CONDITIONS AS RAIN INCREASES. FRONT MOVES ACROSS KPDX OPS AREA
AROUND 14Z. MVFR WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO AFTERNOON. AFTER
14Z GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
CURRENT TAF EXPECTED FOR 06Z UPDATE. ROCKEY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AS VERY STRONG FRONT APPROACHES. FRONT IS
CURRENTLY 230 MILES OFFSHORE...AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN 4
AND 5 AM SAT. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SOLID SOUTHERLY GALES LATE
TONIGHT LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SAT. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS AT 45 TO 50 KT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 AM.
THIS ESPECIALLY POSSIBLE AS SEEMS TO BE TSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT WELL OFFSHORE.
CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY IN THE WIND...BUILDING
UP TO 15 TO 20 FT BY DAYBREAK SAT. BRISK W TO NW WINDS ON SAT WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. LATER SAT
NIGHT... SEAS WILL BEING SUBSIDING...BACK UNDER 20 FT BY LATE
EVENING...WITH SEAS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ON SUN.
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM SAT FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SAT AND SUN FOR THE CASCADES OF
LANE COUNTY AND THE NORTH OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM SAT FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 11 AM SAT FOR N OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM SAT FOR S WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 5 PM SAT FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SAT TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT ON NORTH COASTAL
WATERS...OR FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CASCADE HEAD.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM SAT FOR CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL
WATERS...OR FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
922 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT BROUGHT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
TODAY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY
WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW. RELATIVELY MORE QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF EVEN COLDER
STORM SYSTEMS POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...AN AAREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS BRINGING AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOST OF THE RAINFALL WAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION...CONCENTRATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN THE MODELS
MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TODAY
ALONG THE 290K ISENTROPE. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS SEEN
APPROACHING THE N COAST THIS MORNING...HAVING PASSED BUOY 46029
AROUND 13Z. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO MAINLY OROGRAPHIC
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AS MOIST LAYER BECOMES SHALLOWER AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES TO AN END.
REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT..BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE OVER THE NE PAC COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SOME SHALLOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG FORMATION EARLY FRI MORNING FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON FRI. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL PACK SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PUNCH...BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST...A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN...AND ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY
TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO PHASE OVER THE NE PAC
ON FRI AND WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT AS A
FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES FRI
EVENING...THEN PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE FRONTAL WINDS. BUT
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE COAST ON SAT MORNING. THE TREND
HAS BEEN TOWARD WEAKENING THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS A BIT. MUCH STILL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THINK THAT THERE IS
POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST AS WELL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT...WITH RAIN
FALLING FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS OVERNIGHT FRI INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL COOL RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES ALOFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SAT. BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO BE DOWN TO THE HIGHER
CASCADE PASSES...THEN DROP DOWN TO THE 2500 TO 3000 FT LEVEL BY SAT
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BEFORE SNOW
LEVELS DROP...BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KT 850MB FLOW WILL ACT
ON A DEEP CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE AMPLE SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER LIKE DRIVING
CONDITIONS OVER WILLAMETTE AND SANTIAM PASSES AND AROUND GOVERNMENT
CAMP ALONG HIGHWAY 26 SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PYLE
.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE ONSHORE NEAR-SURFACE FLOW. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE
CASCADES SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 3000 FT SUNDAY AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST MODELS EXHIBIT SOME VARIATIONS
WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT IS CLEAR THAT WE ARE SHIFTING
TO A MORE SEASONAL TYPE OF PATTERN. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...AND MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EACH RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING HAS RESULTED IN SOME MVFR CIGS INLAND WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VIS TO MVFR. TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BUT MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MOST
INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND LOCAL IFR INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR BUT COULD BE OCCASIONAL
MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH 23Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SOME DURING THE EVENING AS TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 12Z. SCHNEIDER
&&
.MARINE...WEAK FRONT SLOW TO PASS INLAND WITH WINDS STILL IN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE NEAR SHORE IN THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS. HRRR MODEL STILL INDICATING WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 18Z. FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE INLAND BY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SAT. MODELS STILL CAN NOT AGREE ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP LOW IN THE GULF WITH STRONG NW
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE LOW. THIS RESULTS IN MUCH HIGHER SEAS
THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF MODEL WOULD INDICATE. THE OLD ECMWF HAS MORE
OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH THE LOW MOVING INLAND FASTER AND LESS OF A
FETCH TO BUILD HE SEAS. FOR NOW WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS. SCHNEIDER
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD
OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
836 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE INCREASING AND SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS OVER COOS COUNTY THIS MORNING, THEN NOTHING IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON AND KEPT THEM MAINLY CONFINED TO COOS COUNTY, NORTHERN
DOUGLAS AND FROM AROUND CRATER LAKE NORTH. ELSEWHERE DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT FOCUS OF CONCERN
WILL BE SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT. A
PRELIMINARY LOOK AT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. -PETRUCELLI
&&
.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 31/12Z TAF CYCLE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR EAST OF
THE CASCADES. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES,
BUT LOCAL MVFR CIGS CAN OCCUR ALONG THE COAST AND INTO THE UMPQUA
BASIN WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURATION. CIGS WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA
VALLEY ALONG WITH SOME VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE VFR, THOUGH FOG PATCHES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
SUNRISE IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND BASINS. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013/
DISCUSSION...THE TRAILING END OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...THE JET
AXIS IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...OVER VANCOUVER BC AND THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE LIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ASSERT ITSELF POST THE BACK DOOR SLIDER...WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH DEEPENING AT THE COAST AND OFFSHORE FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
COAST TO THE CASCADES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIGRATES EAST WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT...MUCH STRONGER
FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
MOVES IN THROUGH THE REGION ON THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100
KT JET. IN SPITE OF THE GOOD JET DYNAMICS THE PRECEDENT MOISTURE
FLOW IS WEAK AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR PRECIP
PRODUCER. THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG...AND
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING SEAS UP QUICKLY AND USHER
A COLD AIR MASS BEHIND IT. 850 MB TEMPS OF -2C MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TO THE CASCADE PASSES AND HIGHER
PASSES IN I-5 ON THE TAIL END OF THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN QUICKLY BEHIND IT ON THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A DESCENDING FRONT
SUNDAY. THE COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AS THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS A QUICK ROUND OF HEAVIER
SNOW TO THE HIGHER PASSES.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
318 AM PDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION FRIDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM
SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. RELATIVELY MORE QUIET WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF EVEN COLDER
STORM SYSTEMS POSSIBLY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
A LOOK AT DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS RADAR ECHOES
SPREADING ONTO THE S WA COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO A WEAK WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE FCST MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS FAIRLY WELL...AND
INDICATE THAT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL SPREAD FURTHER DOWN THE
COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN PUSH INLAND AFTER 12Z.
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANT BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND RESULTANT CONVERGENCE PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIFT. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THE BEST
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS WEAK OROGRAPHICS PROVIDE A BIT OF ADDITIONAL
FORCING.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE CASCADES OVERNIGHT..BUT THE TREND
WILL BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER FOR FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
IN PLACE OVER THE NE PAC COMBINED WITH THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SOME SHALLOW STRATUS OR PATCHY FOG FORMATION EARLY FRI MORNING FOR
THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ON FRI. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUNSHINE AS WELL...PARTICULARLY FOR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL PACK SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PUNCH...BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST...A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN...AND ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM...AND THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PROVIDED BY
TWO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO PHASE OVER THE NE PAC
ON FRI AND WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW OVERNIGHT FRI INTO SAT AS A
FAIRLY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
EXPECT RAIN TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES FRI
EVENING...THEN PUSH RAPIDLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE FCST MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRE FRONTAL WINDS. BUT
POST FRONTAL NW WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE COAST ON SAT MORNING. THE TREND
HAS BEEN TOWARD WEAKENING THESE POST FRONTAL WINDS A BIT. MUCH STILL
DEPENDS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT THINK THAT THERE IS
POTENTIAL TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE COAST AS WELL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH AT THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT...WITH RAIN
FALLING FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST CASCADE PEAKS OVERNIGHT FRI INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. HOWEVER THE AIRMASS WILL COOL RAPIDLY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL COLD POOL MOVES ALOFT BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z SAT. BY LATE MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO BE DOWN TO THE HIGHER
CASCADE PASSES...THEN DROP DOWN TO THE 2500 TO 3000 FT LEVEL BY SAT
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BEFORE SNOW
LEVELS DROP...BUT WEST TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KT 850MB FLOW WILL ACT
ON A DEEP CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE AMPLE SHOWERS
OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WINTER LIKE DRIVING
CONDITIONS OVER WILLAMETTE AND SANTIAM PASSES AND AROUND GOVERNMENT
CAMP ALONG HIGHWAY 26 SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PYLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE ONSHORE NEAR-SURFACE
FLOW. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE CASCADES SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME
WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 3000
FT SUNDAY AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST
MODELS EXHIBIT SOME VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER DETAILS OF
TIMING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT
IS CLEAR THAT WE ARE SHIFTING TO A MORE SEASONAL TYPE OF PATTERN.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD EACH RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS GREATER WITH BASES HIGHER THAN
5000 FEET RESULTING IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THOUGH REMAINING VFR. EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO LOWER
CIGS TO 5000 FT OR LOWER OVERNIGHT....WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST. MVFR BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK OR LATER THU MORNING WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WILL BE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
OCCURS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT LOWER
CIGS...BUT LIGHT FLOW WILL BRING IFR POTENTIAL THU NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AROUND 12Z FOR A THREAT OF MVFR.
THE WARM-FRONTAL NATURE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM COULD ALSO LEAD TO
IFR OR LOW-END MVFR THU MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK FRONT NEAR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS IN THE NORTH ZONES
AND
OVER THE OUTER WATERS FOR THE SOUTH ZONES. WIND ARE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 KT AT BUOY 46029 AND NOW THE COASTAL WINDS SITES ARE
PICKING GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS HAVE EASED OVER
THE OUTER WATERS IN THE NORTH SO HAVE DROPPED ADVISORY FOR THAT
AREA. THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORTS THAT IDEA AS WELL AS MAINTAINING
STRONGER WINDS NEAR SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL INNER WATERS TO
25 KT FOR THIS MORNING.
A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SAT. MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS LOW. RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IS ALSO LOW...BUT BETTER THAN 2 DAYS AGO. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND NAM TAKES THE LOW FURTHEST SOUTH TOWARD THE SOUTH WA COAST
WHILE THE GFS AND GEM FURTHEST NORTH TO THE NORTH WA COAT AND
SOUTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND RESPECTIVELY. PLAN ON WEIGHTING THE
FORECAST CLOSEST TO THE GFS WHICH LOOKS LIKE A GOOD AVERAGE TRACK.
EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS EARLY SAT MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE POST-FRONTAL W-NW WIND COULD
BE JUST AS STRONG...IF NOT A BIT STRONGER...THAN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WIND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM-FORCE GUSTS OVER THE
FAR N WATERS. THE WIND SETTLES DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT EVENING.
SEAS LIKELY TO SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FT SUN AFTERNOON.
SEAS REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT MAKE A
SUBSTANTIAL JUMP SAT MORNING. EXPECT SEAS AROUND 15 FT SAT
MORNING ...WIND-WAVE DOMINATED. COULD SEE HIGHER SEAS SHOULD THE
GALE- FORCE NWLY WIND END UP STRONGER AND OF LONGER DURATION OVER
THE FETCH AREA. W-NW SWELL APPROACHING 20 FT IMPACTS THE FAR N
WATERS SAT AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR/MH
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THIS
MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
856 PM PDT WED OCT 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TO THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO THE REGION FRIDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF EVEN COLDER STORM SYSTEMS POSSIBLY IMPACT
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.EVENING UPDATE...A LOOP OF DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD ECHOES
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS IS RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 295K SURFACE. WHILE THE INITIAL RETURNS
ARE VIRGA...A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNDERWAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAIN REPORTED IN THE COAST RANGE...AND TRACES ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW UP FURTHER INLAND AT KSPB AND KMMV. AS A
RESULT...SPRINKLES WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z.
AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AND EXPANDED IN AREAL
COVERAGE FOR THE 06Z-12Z PERIOD.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STILL WEST OF BUOY 89 WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT PUSHES INLAND AND FALLS
APART. SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME
MORNING FOG.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS INTERESTING...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
WAVER ON THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
NAM REMAINS THE WEAKEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST
GFS BRINGS A 999MB LOW PRESSURE INTO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. THE 12Z
EC REMAINS A HYBRID OF THE TWO. INTERESTINGLY...MODELS GENERALLY DO
NOT SEEM VERY AMBITIOUS TO INCREASE PREFRONTAL WINDS. THE GFS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING A SWATH OF STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS FOR THE
FAR NORTH OREGON COAST AND WASHINGTON COAST...BUT ON A COUPLE OF
EVENTS IN THE PAST YEAR OR SO...THE MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THESE
POSTFRONTAL WINDS. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH
THAT 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS WILL SURFACE ALONG THE COAST EVEN IF THE GFS
SOLUTION WERE TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY...I WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE SPS CURRENTLY OUT
FOR THE COAST...AND WILL LET THE MID SHIFT TAKE IN THE 00Z EC.
THE OTHER NOTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO NEAR 3000 TO 3500 FT WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FT SATURDAY. NONETHELESS...WEST
TO NORTHWEST 30 TO 40 KT 850MB FLOW WILL ACT ON A DEEP CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE AMPLE SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR WINTER LIKE DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER WILLAMETTE AND SANTIAM
PASSES AND AROUND GOVERNMENT CAMP ALONG HIGHWAY 26 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE ONSHORE NEAR-SURFACE
FLOW. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE CASCADES SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME
WINDY CONDITIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW 3000
FT SUNDAY AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER CHANCES EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORECAST
MODELS EXHIBIT SOME VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE FINER DETAILS OF
TIMING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...IT
IS CLEAR THAT WE ARE SHIFTING TO A MORE SEASONAL TYPE OF PATTERN.
HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...AND MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD EACH RUN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CULLEN
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS GREATER WITH BASES HIGHER THAN
5000 FEET RESULTING IN A FEW SPRINKLES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
THOUGH REMAINING VFR. EXPECT ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE FRONT TO LOWER
CIGS TO 5000 FT OR LOWER OVERNIGHT....WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT THE COAST. MVFR BECOMES INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE FOR THE
INLAND TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK OR LATER THU MORNING WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR WILL BE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
ARRIVING...IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
OCCURS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SCOUR OUT LOWER
CIGS...BUT LIGHT FLOW WILL BRING IFR POTENTIAL THU NIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z THU.
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP AROUND 12Z FOR A THREAT OF MVFR.
THE WARM-FRONTAL NATURE OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM COULD ALSO LEAD TO
IFR OR LOW-END MVFR THU MORNING. KMD
&&
.MARINE...WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 KT TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE FRONT HANGS UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THESE WINDS WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER...AT LEAST
FOR THE WATERS CLOSER TO SHORE...SO EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE
CENTRAL OREGON COASTAL INNER WATERS TO 25 KT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. /KMD
REST OF THE MARINE DISCUSSION UNCHANGED...A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY WITH THE TRACK AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE LOW. THE
18Z NAM IS MUCH WEAKER AND A BIT MORE S WITH IT COMPARED TO THE
12Z RUN. THE 18Z VERSION SHOWS A 1012 MB CENTER NEAR CAPE FALCON
09Z SAT. THE 12Z RUN WAS NEAR 1000 MB AND FURTHER N. 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THE CENTRAL PRES...1002 MB OR
SO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE
ECMWF TRACK IS BETWEEN THE 18Z NAM AND THE 12Z GFS. IN ANY
EVENT...LOOK FOR GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS EARLY SAT
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE POST-FRONTAL W-NW
WIND COULD BE JUST AS STRONG...IF NOT A BIT STRONGER...THAN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WIND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM-FORCE
GUSTS OVER THE FAR N WATERS. THE WIND SETTLES DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY
SAT EVENING.
SEAS REMAIN WELL BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT MAKE A
SUBSTANTIAL JUMP SAT MORNING. EXPECT 15-20 FT SEAS SAT
MORNING...WIND-WAVE DOMINATED. COULD SEE HIGHER SEAS SHOULD THE GALE-
FORCE NWLY WIND END UP STRONGER AND OF LONGER DURATION OVER THE
FETCH AREA. W-NW SWELL AROUND 20 FT IMPACTS THE FAR N WATERS SAT
AFTERNOON. WEISHAAR
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
OUT 10 NM-WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR
FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
716 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE CURRENTLY BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND WRF. SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AREAWIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACCORDINGLY. REST OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TWEAKS MADE BASED ON CURRENT
OBS.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK IN ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
EVENING. 2 SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN
DURING THE TAF PD WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...LIGHT SHWR CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WX
PATTERN MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.
PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD START OFF THE EVENING...BUT BY MID EVENING...
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
ALOFT...TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR GENERALLY MOCLDY SKIES
WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE...AS THERE MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO EXPECT AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOWER 60S...AROUND
60 PLATEAU. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID STATE THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S AND HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AS THIS
COLDER AIRMASS WORKS ACROSS THE MID STATE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE MON...TUE...WED...WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMUP TREND
WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS AS THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WILL BRING US TO THE COOLER TEMPS OVER THIS WEEKEND LIFTS INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND PUTS US INTO A SELY SFC FLOW AND SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE MID STATE AREA WED INTO THU. LATEST GFS/EURO NOT SO FAR APART
AS WITH THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING A HUNDRED MILE
OR TWO FASTER. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING BUT UP POPS ON WED NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AND MADE A WX TRANSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU W TO
E AS SFC FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID STATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1027 AM EDT THU OCT 31 2013
.DISCUSSION...MINOR UPDATE TO TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
WILL CONTINUE EARLY TODAY. UPPER FEATURE AIDED THE LIFT WILL EXIT
TO THE NE. LOWEST LAYERS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH CURRENT AND
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECKS IN THE MID LEVELS. HRRR AND RUC MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH EARLY PRECIPITATION BUT NOR CONCERNED ABOUT MUCH IN
WAY OF MEASURABLE PCPN. SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. THIS COUPLED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD CANOPY LOWERED AFTN
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. LATE DAY WARM AIR SURGE COULD EXCEED
THESE VALUES. INCREASED WINDS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
PCPN COVERAGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 61 72 45 65 / 50 100 20 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 59 73 45 61 / 50 100 20 10 20
OAK RIDGE, TN 72 59 73 44 61 / 50 100 20 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 57 71 43 57 / 30 100 30 10 30
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EDT /3 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM
EDT /6 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BLEDSOE...
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...JOHNSON...MARION...MORGAN...SCOTT
TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...UNICOI.
VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.
&&
$$
SON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINED UP OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF
NORTH TEXAS...WHERE THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE
CONVECTION EAST OF NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THIS AXIS OF CONVECTION IS RIGHT AT
THE MCLENNAN COUNTY LINE...SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
KACT IN CASE THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DECIDE TO
LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FIELD.
WE STILL EXPECT INCREASING RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE METROPLEX TAF LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST APPROACHES ALONG WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. SINCE IT
APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...WILL
LIKELY GO WITH A VCTS DURING THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME AT ALL
LOCATIONS. THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING
NEVER QUITE MADE IT NORTH OF THE METROPLEX...WHICH KEPT THE IFR
CIGS IN PLACE. CLOUD BASES MAY LIFT A LITTLE AS WINDS SLOWLY VEER
BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT UNTIL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE VEERING TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 20 KTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME CROSS WIND ISSUES AT DFW DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT IS
REACHED 18-19Z. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
30
&&
.UPDATE...
AT THE SURFACE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY DEVELOPED TODAY
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO MEXIA TO
GRANBURY TO WICHITA FALLS. TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S...ABOUT 5 TO 7
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. EVEN
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT REALLY CAUGHT ONTO THE PRESENCE
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH IS AFFECTING THE FORECAST SURFACE
INSTABILITY FIELDS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. IN
ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED FORECAST LOW TEMPS 5 DEGREES OR SO TO NEAR
CURRENT TEMPS IN THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR RISE
SLOWLY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
CONCERNING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE
RADAR IS CLEARLY SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OR
BOUNDARY THAT HAS SET UP THIS EVENING RIGHT ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR SOUTH OF TEMPLE. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM COTULLA TO
AUSTIN TO MARLIN TO ATHENS. EVENING FWD SOUNDING INDICATED
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR NEAR 850MB AND MORE VEERED WESTERLY FLOW.
AT DEL RIO...DRY AIR AND EVEN NORTHWEST WINDS WERE PRESENT AT
850MB...SO THERE IS GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY IS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN IN TACT THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS THAT PORTEND TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE AVAILABLE TONIGHT WITH HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS RESULTING IN HIGH MOISTURE
FLUX...WEAK INSTABILITY...AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS. AM VERY
CONCERNED SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES MAY RECEIVE
OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT...WHICH RAISES CONCERN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAT IS A THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
WITH THE BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP IN THIS LOCATION...AND THE
PRESENCE OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES
HAVE CANCELED THE WATCH OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES...INCLUDING
ROCKWALL AND KAUFMAN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS TONIGHT...BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS LESSENING. THE FORT
WORTH SOUNDING DID INDICATE A LAYER OF MOIST/CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE PARCELS JUST ABOVE THE COOLER SURFACE LAYER. WHEN THE
NEXT PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT IS NOW LOCATED IN NEW MEXICO
ROTATES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THIS SHOULD BE CONVERTED
INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
NORTH OF THE TRAINING BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY WAIT UNTIL
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
TRIGGER BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP POPS HIGH
OVER THE AREA...BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED
BY QUICK DURATION AND THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
TR.92
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/
THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP
SOME RAINFALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
NARROWING DOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT COULD
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNDERESTIMATING THE SEVERE THREAT.
CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE TEMPERATURES IN HENDERSON AND ANDERSON COUNTIES
ARE IN THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPERATURE ACROSS BELL AND MILAM
COUNTIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
WILL EFFECTIVELY ACT AS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONGLY BACKED WINDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY RUN SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE
AROUND 2000J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS IS QUITE STRONG AND
THERE IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL CAPE. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...LCLS ARE LOW AND THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR A LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.
ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS GIVEN AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50KTS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP BUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THREAT WOULD EXIST. THERE IS A LAYER OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER NORTH TEXAS WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS LOCALLY SUPPORTING
A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BEEN A THORN IN OUR SIDE IN TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM DFW AND DAL SHOW THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT
700MB TO 550MB. MORE IMPORTANTLY...LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THIS DRY AIR IS SINKING...IMPLYING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.
LATEST FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...OR MORE
SPECIFIC...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM NEAR
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO SHERMAN. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
TIGHT THETA-E BOUNDARY ALONG THESE AREAS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER DARK...MAINLY FROM 9PM TO 2AM. THE
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT
BECAUSE MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH A 50KT LLJ PUMPING RICH MOISTURE INTO THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THE AREAS WHERE WE THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. OF COURSE...IF THIS
IS OFF ANY BIT...CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD FALL FARTHER
WEST. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MUCH
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL WEST...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
AT THIS TIME AND DOESNT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE DRY AIR AS WELL.
THAT BEING SAID...CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION WILL
REMAIN THE SAME...BUT IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WEST...WE WILL EXPAND IT THIS EVENING. WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR LATE
OCTOBER...AND SURFACE TO 700MB THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF ONLY ABOUT 5
DEG K...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD
AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY AND TRICK OR TREATING WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE NICE. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DUNN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 66 79 53 77 50 / 80 20 5 0 0
WACO, TX 68 79 47 77 47 / 90 20 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 63 78 50 74 46 / 100 20 5 0 0
DENTON, TX 65 75 50 74 43 / 80 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 64 76 50 76 46 / 100 20 5 0 0
DALLAS, TX 66 79 54 78 52 / 90 20 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 64 78 50 76 47 / 100 20 5 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 64 80 52 75 50 / 100 30 5 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 69 79 48 78 49 / 100 30 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 75 44 76 45 / 60 10 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ122-123-135-
146>148-158-160>162-174-175.
&&
$$
30/92
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
3 PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVING EAST. SHOWERS WERE OCCURING
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN WISCONSIN
STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ADVANCE EAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AS THE WESTERN
WAVE MOVES INTO IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PASSES
ACROSS THESE AREAS SO THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REGION. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
QUIET CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
CONTROL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA
AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STAYS MIXED WE COULD SEE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING 40 MPH.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB. 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
ANOTHER MASS OF CLOUDS HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A FEW -SHRA ARE ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT MESO MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS KEEP THOSE MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. COULD
SEE A DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS /4-5SM/ OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY BR WOULD
MIX-OUT BY MID MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE POST THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP CLEAR THE SKIES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SAT...WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/DECOUPLE WITH SUNDOWN...AND STAY LIGHT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP ABOVE
THE NEAR SFC INVERSION AFTER 06Z SUN...BUT IF THAT OCCURS...NOT SURE
IT WOULD IMPACT THE FOG POTENTIAL TOO MUCH. ITS A SCENARIO THAT
BEARS WATCHING.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...BECOMING GUSTY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS - ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
605 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
3 PM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA/SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVING EAST. SHOWERS WERE OCCURING
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE FORECAST AREA WAS LOCATED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE SEEN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WESTERN WISCONSIN
STAYING CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BREAK IN CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ADVANCE EAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY FILL BACK IN AS THE WESTERN
WAVE MOVES INTO IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER PASSES
ACROSS THESE AREAS SO THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. THE WAVE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REGION. PLAN ON
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN AND UPPER RIDGING PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
QUIET CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN
CONTROL. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
60 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN IOWA
AND SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STAYS MIXED WE COULD SEE GUSTS AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING 40 MPH.
HAVE INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXING TO AROUND 925 MB. 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH
SUPPORT TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE REGION ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON HIGHS FALLING BACK INTO THE
40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST...TAKING THE LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF -DZ/-SHRA. SUNSHINE HAS RETURNED BRIEFLY WEST OF THE
CLOUD LINE...BUT ANOTHER MASS OF CLOUDS WAS QUICKLY PUSHING IN FROM
THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. A FEW
-SHRA WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE...BUT DON/T EXPECT THEM TO MOVE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. CLOUD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. COULD SEE A
DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS /4-5SM/ LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY BR WOULD MIX-OUT
BY MID MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE POST THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP CLEAR THE SKIES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SAT...WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...BECOMING GUSTY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS - ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING EAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR
INTO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MOVING EAST. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 50S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER THE AREA AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
A CLOUDY AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE DECIDED TO
COOL HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF OT THE EAST AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WHERE SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A RIDGE DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND STALLS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH
THE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FORM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S...THEN COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS - GENERALLY
HOVERING NEAR 1 KFT - AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.
NOT MUCH VSBY RESTRICTIONS INDICATED VIA LATEST SFC OBS...AND DON/T
ANTICIPATED MUCH DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY FAIRLY STIRRED
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING FRIDAY...AND COULD GET A
BUMP INTO VFR BY 18Z. WILL PLAY THIS MORE PESSIMISTIC...WAITING
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FALL/WINTER CAN BE NOTORIOUS FOR
HANGING ONTO LOW CIGS LONGER THAN THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.
BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND A SFC TROUGH COULD SPARK A FEW -SHRA
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG I-94
NORTH/EAST...BUT CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A -SHRA PASSING
ACROSS KRST/KLSE. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST...BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH. DON/T THINK THERE WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT
ON CIGS/VSBY IF IT OCCURRED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
317 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SOUTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING EAST. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 39 CORRIDOR
INTO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS MOVING EAST. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER NOTED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
TO THE MID 50S OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EAST OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER THE AREA AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON
A CLOUDY AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN LATE DECIDED TO
COOL HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF OT THE EAST AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS WHERE SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
MPH. A RIDGE DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION FROM MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVES LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL GO WITH
LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FORM THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THEN COOL INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
IFR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. ON THE RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED FEET. THIS INCLUDES KRST BETWEEN 01.06Z AND
01.16Z.
AS FAR AS VISIBILITIES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS
STIRRED UP ENOUGH THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1235 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
DURING THE PAST HOUR...VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
WITH VISIBILITIES RUNNING AROUND A QUARTER MILE...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH TO VERNON COUNTY. ALSO DECIDED TO EXTEND
IT UNTIL NOON. WITH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWING THAT THE
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 31.15Z AND 31.18Z...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND THIS ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
213 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PRECIPITATION AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALSO WATCHING FOG TRENDS
WITH DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KRST AND KDEH...MOVING EAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL IA.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURN ALONG AND BEHIND...
INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DENSE FOG OVER NORTHERN WI...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THICK FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES EAST.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WEAK FLOW
AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL HANG ONTO THE LOW CHANCES
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH. IN FACT...THEY SHOULD FALL FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF AN UPWARD
TICK DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE THE MERCURY DIP INTO
THE 30S. IT COULD GET A BIT COOLER IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP MORE...
SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
213 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO MN/IA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...
BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE LIFT AND SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO
AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH. WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL BE DROPPING INTO
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF WI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN...IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. `
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN...PROVIDING FOR A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND A COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY. BUT THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WHICH FORMS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION...AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY.
BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NO
REAL CONNECTION TO THE ARCTIC AIR SEEN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME
IFR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY
MORNING. ON THE RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED FEET. THIS INCLUDES KRST BETWEEN 01.06Z AND
01.16Z.
AS FAR AS VISIBILITIES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS
STIRRED UP ENOUGH THAT THERE SHOULD BE NO RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...THIS AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
DURING THE PAST HOUR...VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY IMPROVING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
WITH VISIBILITIES RUNNING AROUND A QUARTER MILE...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH TO VERNON COUNTY. ALSO DECIDED TO EXTEND
IT UNTIL NOON. WITH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWING THAT THE
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 31.15Z AND 31.18Z...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND THIS ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
213 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PRECIPITATION AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALSO WATCHING FOG TRENDS
WITH DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KRST AND KDEH...MOVING EAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL IA.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURN ALONG AND BEHIND...
INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DENSE FOG OVER NORTHERN WI...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THICK FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES EAST.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WEAK FLOW
AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL HANG ONTO THE LOW CHANCES
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH. IN FACT...THEY SHOULD FALL FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF AN UPWARD
TICK DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE THE MERCURY DIP INTO
THE 30S. IT COULD GET A BIT COOLER IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP MORE...
SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
213 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO MN/IA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...
BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE LIFT AND SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO
AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH. WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL BE DROPPING INTO
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF WI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN...IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. `
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN...PROVIDING FOR A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND A COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY. BUT THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WHICH FORMS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION...AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY.
BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NO
REAL CONNECTION TO THE ARCTIC AIR SEEN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LIFR VIS/CIGS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AT
THE TAF SITES WITH THE MAIN INITIAL QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST
BEING WHEN THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE. CALM WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER THE REGION HAS LED TO THIS FOG FORMATION. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS GONE THROUGH RST AND WILL GO THROUGH
LSE BY MID MORNING. WHILE CEILINGS STAY IFR OR WORSE AFTER THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE VISIBILITY AT LEAST IMPROVES ABOVE
1/4SM. THE IFR LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALREADY. PLAYED IT PESSIMISTIC AS THE SURFACE
LOW WILL NOT TRACK TO FAST TO THE EAST AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL AT LEAST REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH COMES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND HELPS TO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...BUT THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS JUST
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
901 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
.UPDATE...THIS MORNING
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
WITH VISIBILITIES RUNNING AROUND A QUARTER MILE...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY SOUTH TO VERNON COUNTY. ALSO DECIDED TO EXTEND
IT UNTIL NOON. WITH THE SREF AND HRRR SHOWING THAT THE
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 31.15Z AND 31.18Z...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE HAVING TO EXTEND THIS ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
213 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE PRECIPITATION AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE AREA. ALSO WATCHING FOG TRENDS
WITH DENSE FOG ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE LOW CENTER SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KRST AND KDEH...MOVING EAST.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL IA.
RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE LOW...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURN ALONG AND BEHIND...
INDICATIVE OF DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DENSE FOG OVER NORTHERN WI...WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT. THICK FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES EAST.
IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME...BUT THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LOW
SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. WEAK FLOW
AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SO WILL HANG ONTO THE LOW CHANCES
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH. IN FACT...THEY SHOULD FALL FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF AN UPWARD
TICK DURING THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD SEE THE MERCURY DIP INTO
THE 30S. IT COULD GET A BIT COOLER IF THE CLOUDS BREAK UP MORE...
SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
213 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
A FAST-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO MN/IA BY FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...
BUT THERE WILL BE AMPLE LIFT AND SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH
THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ANTICIPATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT RAIN TO
AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH. WEAK CHANNELED VORTICITY WILL BE DROPPING INTO
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME WEAK SUPPORT TO GENERATE A
FEW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF WI DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AGAIN...IF
THIS DOES HAPPEN...DO NOT EXPECT IT TO AMOUNT TO VERY MUCH. `
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN...PROVIDING FOR A COOL NIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND A COOL BUT PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY. BUT THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN RESULTS IN ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY...WHICH FORMS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MANITOBA. THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION...AS IT TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO INTO JAMES BAY.
BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH NO
REAL CONNECTION TO THE ARCTIC AIR SEEN IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013
LIFR VIS/CIGS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND AT
THE TAF SITES WITH THE MAIN INITIAL QUESTION FOR THE FORECAST
BEING WHEN THESE CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE. CALM WINDS AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER THE REGION HAS LED TO THIS FOG FORMATION. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS GONE THROUGH RST AND WILL GO THROUGH
LSE BY MID MORNING. WHILE CEILINGS STAY IFR OR WORSE AFTER THE
FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE VISIBILITY AT LEAST IMPROVES ABOVE
1/4SM. THE IFR LOOKS LIKE IT COULD HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALREADY. PLAYED IT PESSIMISTIC AS THE SURFACE
LOW WILL NOT TRACK TO FAST TO THE EAST AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST. CONDITIONS WILL AT LEAST REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A SECONDARY TROUGH COMES THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND HELPS TO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AROUND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN THAT OCCURS WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...BUT THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT STAYS JUST
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BOYNE
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
...RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
...MARINE AND ATLANTIC COASTAL IMPACTS SUN-WED, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THEN...
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND IT, DRIVING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FL, BUT TEMPS REALLY JUST LOWER TO
CLIMO AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM BY
SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY OF THIS FORECAST -
NE-E WINDS WILL PICK UP SUN-WED, DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
THE TYPICAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES ON THE BAYSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND, DUE TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DURING THIS PERIOD
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND. THE WORSE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR MON-TUE. THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN OUR PRODUCTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS AGAIN INCREASING BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE WILL DROP ONLY BRIEFLY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SPIKE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER.
THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRIEF, AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
A RETURN TO 70F DEWPOINTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT OR HIGHER
SUN-WED, POSSIBLY EVEN TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND 8 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 2ND:
WEST PALM BEACH...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 92F-1919
FORT LAUDERDALE...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 90F-1919
MIAMI.............FORECAST: 89F, RECORD: 89F-1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 71 81 70 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 71 82 74 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 85 65 84 64 / 20 10 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
303 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
THREAT OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
QUITE HIGH...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THROWN
SOME DOUBT BACK INTO THE EQUATION. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT
THIS LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN IS AN ANOMALY/OUTLIER. THIS PACKAGE
WILL LEAN ON A MIX OF THE CANADIAN...GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN.
A LARGE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COLD AIR
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE AND BECOMING OVERCAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AND REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF GFS GUIDANCE HAS COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY...BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AT THIS TIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
COOLED AS WELL SO THE GFS WOULD BE IN FAVOR SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW LATER ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS THE COOLEST
SOLUTION YET THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN
TO RUN VARIATION WITH THIS MODEL. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS SO HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL
HAS COME IN MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...UP TO 10
DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS IS COMING FROM SOME
PROJECTED WARMING FROM THE WEST AS THE STORM CLEARS OUT EARLIER.
THIS DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN BUT SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION...WILL NEGLECT IT UNLESS THIS SOLUTION BECOMES
PERSISTENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...THE EUROPEAN MODEL NOW
SHOWS A WEAKER...FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS..CANADIAN AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN
WHICH SHOW A STRONGER...SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. MODELS REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THESE LOCATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW WITH SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION ZONE. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST AS
DEPICTED FROM OMEGA FIELDS/CROSS SECTIONS SO THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THIS...THINKING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...A LATER
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FORECAST SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH
LESS SOUTHEAST OF A NORTON TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
ANY SNOW COVER LEFT ON THE GROUND. FROM THURSDAY ON...EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH WARMING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SO HAVE MADE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY 15Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FRONT RANGE AREAS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
318 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
...LONG TERM UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
A weak surface high pressure system, oriented from basically north
to south across western Kansas, will be replaced by a more
dominant lee side trough across eastern Colorado by mid day
today. Drier air has been seeping into the far west counties,
such as Hamilton, Stanton, Kearny, and Grant counties this morning.
Temperatures at 2 am CDT were already near 32F or lower, so the
hard freeze warning still seems on track, and will continue it
through 8 am this morning. Little or no clouds are expected today,
except a few high, passing cirrus clouds. There is a broad upper
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, which will move over the
plains by late today. There is not too much upper moisture
evident in the northwest flow, but a few cirrus clouds are usually
seen during the afternoon hours during this pattern. Since the
surface flow will be slow to turn to the southwest, today will
warm up slowly. I may trim max temps back a tad today in our east,
thinking the southwest warming will be delayed. The HRRR and RUC
have max temps slightly cooler than we currently have in our grids,
so one or two degrees should not matter too much. Northwest winds
this morning in associated with the surface high pressure ridge
will be around 10 mph, but once the lee side trough gets
established and southwest flow takes over, wind speeds should be
in the 12 to 15 mph range.
For tonight, I did not change any weather parameters. Mostly clear
skies should continue with upper high pressure migrating east over
Kansas. Nearer the surface, the lee side trough over eastern
Colorado will move southeastward into Oklahoma as a wind shift.
So surface winds will stay up most of the night, and be rather
breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight. The resultant lows
will be elevated from this morning, ending up in the upper 30s to
around 40F degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
The weather pattern will undergo significant changes in the Sunday
through Wednesday timeframe. Warm dry and windy conditions are
anticipated Sunday. A rapidly approaching upper longwave trough
creating strong southwest flow aloft will induce enhanced pressure
falls across eastern Colorado. This evolution combined with strong
surface high pressure over the Gulf states should create a 10-13 mb
pressure gradient across western and central Kansas, a strong 50
knot 850 mb level jet streak and reasonably steep low level lapse
rates over the region for a very windy morning and afternoon. A wind
advisory has been hoisted from around 9 am Sunday through early
Sunday evening.
This same approaching trough will generate a strong
potential vorticity anomaly into the southern Rockies by Monday,
allowing an dynamic precipitation system to develop across western
Kansas in the Monday through Tuesday timeframe. At this point the
GFS appears to significantly lag the ECMWF in timing, as is also
more aggressive developing a stronger frontogenesis field in the
deeper cold air aloft. Until the forecast timeframe draws closer and
models begin to hopefully converge in solution, the best forecast
remains for strong PVA/isentropic lift and warm air advection forced
showers or thunderstorms on Monday with a better chance for strong
cold advection with rain/snow and windy conditions in the Tuesday and
Tuesday night timeframe. It appears at this time that the heavier
precipitation would most likely be across northwest Kansas into
Nebraska.
A relatively flat upper ridge redevelops for the rest of the week
with lee troughing across the front range, suggesting warming back
towards normal seasonal high temperatures with likely southerly
and breezy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR conditions will prevail through 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the area will maintain light northwest winds this
morning. Winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon, once a
surface trough forms in eastern Colorado. A gentle northwest flow
will continue aloft, as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 39 68 45 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 65 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 66 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 66 38 70 44 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 60 40 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
P28 62 38 67 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM CST Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
211 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
A weak surface high pressure system, oriented from basically north
to south across western Kansas, will be replaced by a more
dominant lee side trough across eastern Colorado by mid day
today. Drier air has been seeping into the far west counties,
such as Hamilton, Stanton, Kearny, and Grant counties this morning.
Temperatures at 2 am CDT were already near 32F or lower, so the
hard freeze warning still seems on track, and will continue it
through 8 am this morning. Little or no clouds are expected today,
except a few high, passing cirrus clouds. There is a broad upper
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, which will move over the
plains by late today. There is not too much upper moisture
evident in the northwest flow, but a few cirrus clouds are usually
seen during the afternoon hours during this pattern. Since the
surface flow will be slow to turn to the southwest, today will
warm up slowly. I may trim max temps back a tad today in our east,
thinking the southwest warming will be delayed. The HRRR and RUC
have max temps slightly cooler than we currently have in our grids,
so one or two degrees should not matter too much. Northwest winds
this morning in associated with the surface high pressure ridge
will be around 10 mph, but once the lee side trough gets
established and southwest flow takes over, wind speeds should be
in the 12 to 15 mph range.
For tonight, I did not change any weather parameters. Mostly clear
skies should continue with upper high pressure migrating east over
Kansas. Nearer the surface, the lee side trough over eastern
Colorado will move southeastward into Oklahoma as a wind shift.
So surface winds will stay up most of the night, and be rather
breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight. The resultant lows
will be elevated from this morning, ending up in the upper 30s to
around 40F degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
Saturday night/Sunday:
Winds are expected to stay up in the 10-20 MPH range Saturday night
as a result of a tightening pressure gradient. Overnight minimums for
Sunday morning will be on the more "mild" side as these winds continue.
Expecting lows generally around 40.
On Sunday, upper level wind flow will increase as a trof out west moves
east and amplifies. At the sfc, a lee trof will continue to deepen.
A tight pressure gradient is expected across southwest Kansas. 40-50
kt boundary layer winds do spell out the concern for a wind advisory.
Have increased winds just under criteria, however, it is too early for
a wind advisory. In addition, a 13C-18C 850 mb warm plume will
advect eastward across the region with a downslope SSW wind
component. Have increased maximums across western Kansas into the
low 70sF west and near 70F across south central Kansas as the
overall mesoscale pattern suggests a warm day. Relative humidities
look marginal for fire wx concerns.
Monday and beyond:
On Monday, a front will bisect the region ushered in by the aforementioned
synoptic trof. A warm layer aloft and neutral height tendencies will
limit precipitation chances for most of Monday, until early Tuesday
as the main low level cyclone as resultant increasing isentropic lift
along a strengthening baroclinic zone starts to influence the outlook
area.
For Tuesday, the main trof axis will move across the region. The front
should completely clear the area during this period. Isolated non-severe
thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector. Negative 850 mb temperatures
suggest the possibility for a wintry mix. There is uncertainty due
to the juxtaposition between maximum cold air advection and model
precip, therefore, significant snow accumulations are not expected.
The rest of the forecast will see moderating temperatures and a precipitation
free forecast as upper level ridging develops across the plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR conditions will prevail through 24 hours. Surface high
pressure over the area will maintain light northwest winds this
morning. Winds will shift to the southwest this afternoon, once a
surface trough forms in eastern Colorado. A gentle northwest flow
will continue aloft, as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 39 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 65 39 71 42 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 67 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 67 38 72 44 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 62 40 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
P28 64 38 68 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. EXPECT WINDS TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW LARGE SCALE H5 TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CONUS EXTENDING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE PROGRESSING
THROUGH THE ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS WITHIN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES.
REGARDING WIND ADVISORY...SO FAR WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WITHIN
3-5KT OF GUST CRITERIA...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE HAD SUSTAINED
WINDS WITHIN CRITERIA. WITH PEAK MIXING UNDERWAY I WOULD EXPECT
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO TREND UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TIME AROUND SUNSET.
A SHALLOW CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER CWA
AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NEBRASKA. WHILE THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR IN THE WEST...THIS IS LIKELY
VIRGA CONSIDERING THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BELOW 700MB. WHILE I
COULDNT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO BEFORE SUNSET...I DECIDED TO
LEAVE MENTION OUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RADAR RETURNS GENERALLY
DIMINISHING. AS THE SUN SETS I EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AIDED BY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN WITH H5 RIDGE IN THE
WEST. WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...COUPLED WITH TD
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...WITH COLD SPOTS IN THE WEST POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS.
AS H5 RIDGE BUILDS WEST AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...THOUGH THEY WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STABLE/DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WAA
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS RECOVER INTO THE
60S BY MIDDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS THAT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WITH
GOOD MIXING...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND 18 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP THE AIR MASS
UNSATURATED...THOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UPSLOPE. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THIS IS THE CHALLENGING PART OF
THE FORECAST AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE A GOOD BET LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT WITH THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES. GFS IS WARM THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...EVEN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS TEMPERATURE PROFILES KEEP
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN...WITH A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 00Z
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST...GFS KEEPS PRECIPITATION TYPE AS ALL
RAIN. THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATING
SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. PROGGED 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL...SO THE FEATURE
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BEING POTENT. FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE SNOW
OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...A MIX OF RAIN/NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL...AND ALL RAIN FURTHER EAST. SNOW POTENTIAL NOW IS 2-4
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH DUE TO CONFLICTING MODEL SIGNALS. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS. SO DRY WEATHER
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1052 PM MDT FRI NOV 1 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST BY 15Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FRONT RANGE AREAS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.Short term.../Today through Monday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Early morning water vapor loops show a strong impulse moving
southeast into west central Illinois. Although moisture is very
limited...radar and sfc obs indicate a small area of showers north
of kstl. Most of the model guidance /including the 00z
nam...gfs...and sref/ develops some light precip across sw Indiana
and northwest Kentucky this morning. Some recent HRRR guidance has
also shown precip in this area. Therefore...will add isolated
showers for sw Indiana and parts of west Kentucky today as diurnal
heating enhances the activity. Lapse rates will be steep from the
surface to 700 mb by late this morning. High temps across the region
will be very close to mos guidance...mostly in the upper 50s.
Skies will clear rather quickly this evening as the low levels
stabilize and a strong ridge /surface and aloft/ builds east across
Missouri. Low temps will likely be cooler than most computer
guidance due to the very dry air mass and weakening low level winds.
Expect quite a bit of frost and even some freezing temps in the
normally colder low spots. Since the growing season has
ended...there will be no headlines.
A surface ridge will move overhead on Sunday...bringing clear skies
and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s as the 850 mb
thermal trough makes its closest approach.
Southerly return flow will begin to develop Sunday night and
strengthen on Monday. High clouds will stream northeast on
Monday...but there should still be considerable sunshine. Temps will
moderate to about seasonal norms.
.Long Term.../Monday night through Friday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
At the beginning of the long term period, synoptically speaking the
region will be under southwest flow aloft combined with retreating
surface high pressure to our east.
Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast Monday
night as an H5 trough pushes a surface low and associated cold front
toward our region. Latest guidance suggests the leading edge of
precipitation only making it into our far western counties by 12Z
Tuesday.
With flow aloft remaining out of the southwest, it will be nearly
parallel to the frontal boundary, so it`s eastward progress will be
rather slow. The best chances for precipitation will be Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the front slides slowly across the area.
Precipitation chances will linger over the eastern third of our CWA
on Thursday before the system pulls off to the east. Instability
remains rather weak through the period so thunderstorm activity
should be somewhat limited. We are not looking for severe weather at
this time, but due to the slow movement of this system, models are
indicating precipitation banding. With models also showing surface
dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range with PWAT values >1.50
inches, our biggest threat with this system may very well be locally
heavy rainfall.
In the wake of this system, surface high pressure and rising heights
aloft should keep the region dry through the remainder of the
period. Temperatures at or slightly above normal will continue
through the first half of the long term period, then drop back to at
or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Compact mid/upper level system will dive southeast through the
area early Saturday and then cooler surface high pressure will
surge eastward across the area Saturday.
Patches of mid-level clouds will stream over the area through the
night, then stratocu will develop over most of the area by mid-
morning. These clouds may linger through the entire afternoon and
possibly into the evening. There may be just enough shallow
instability to allow for some light showers in the east from late
morning through the afternoon. These would likely result in only
some sprinkles and should have little impact on aviation. Ceilings
should be VFR, but a brief period or two of MVFR ceilings cannot
be completely ruled out, especially at KEVV and KOWB. Northwest
winds will gust into the teens throughout the area for much of the
day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JAP
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CLOUDS AT KOMA
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 08Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTH BY 23-01Z.
DEWALD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
.A NICE AUTUMN WEEKEND AS WE FALL BACK TO STANDARD TIME...ALTHOUGH
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON SUNDAY...
A 140KT JET OVER ALBERTA WAS DIVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN H5 TROF OVER
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AND THE GREAT LAKES AT 12Z. SHORTWAVE
TROF ENERGY WAS NOTED OVER NEBRASKA AND A STRONGER WAVE OVER NORTH
DAKOTA. THE 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED SOME SATURATION AROUND 750MB
AND THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND THIS MORNING.
THE RH PROGS THROUGH TONIGHT DO BRING CONTINUED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD AND ALSO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
WITH THE H3 JET TRANSLATING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST...THE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH AT A QUICK SPEED AS WELL. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE
TREND IS FOR THE MOISTURE IS TO HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IS EXITING OUR WESTERN IOWA COUNTIES. THE LATEST WSR-
88D SHOWED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS AND A POCKET OF
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 18Z AND BY 20Z THERE WAS A NICE
ARC OF SHOWERS OVER THE MIDLANDS. THE SHORT-TERM MODELS KEEP THE
BULK OF THE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OR EAST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THE HRRR AND THE RAP BOTH HAVE SOME MINOR PRECIP
SWINGING THROUGH AND THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING
ON. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE RADAR BEFORE FORECAST ISSUANCE DUE TO
THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT FOR NOW...WILL PLAN ON A MENTION
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND OUR NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THERE IS GOOD
LIFT AND UPPER SUPPORT SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE STILL
APPEARS TOO DRY FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE 50S WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S SUNDAY. H85 WINDS OF 45 TO 55KTS
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY. FOR NOW
HAVE SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30MPH SUSTAINED...THUS
HITTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.
RH IS STILL LACKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE SURFACE FRONT
SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING...SO HAVE SO LOW POPS
MENTIONED.
LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...THE MAIN
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CURRENTLY ARE
IN REGARDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AS THE GFS WOULD
INITIALLY TAKE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF I80 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LIFT THIS BACK TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT BEFORE
SWEEPING IT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN
ODDS TO THE EC AND FOR MOST PART GEM THAT FOR THE MOST PART KEEPS
THE FRONT STATIONARY ON TUESDAY BEFORE IS SWEEPS SOUTH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT ONCE IT MOVES SOUTH OF I80 ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND GIVEN THE
POSITIVE NATURE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT THIS IS OUR FAVORED SOLUTION AS WELL. THIS RESULTED IN THE
LOWERING OF HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
2/3RD OF THE FA WHERE CLOUDS...PRECIP AND LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TMPS BELOW GOING HIGHS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE
FAR MAJORITY OF THE CWA WITH JUST RAIN DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER /I.E.
BOONE...ANTELOPE...KNOX COUNTIES/ WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE A MIX OF
RAIN OR SNOW. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT AND OPEN NATURE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WE EXPECT A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE ENDING OF
PRECIP ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONT WITH THE LIKELY POPS AND
BRING THE MIX OF RA/SN A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK DRY BUT WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE COOLED HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A GOOD 5 TO 7
DEGREES BELOW GOING MOS GUIDANCE AND MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH YET. A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS THE EXPECTED TO END THE WORK WEEK BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1122 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
.AVIATION 06Z DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. 2
SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK.
HOWEVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN DURING THE TAF
PD WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCSH
FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID STATE CURRENTLY BUT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH THIS
FEATURE. WILL EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT TO ALL
ZONES IN LINE WITH THE HRRR AND WRF. SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AREAWIDE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACCORDINGLY. REST OF
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH TWEAKS MADE BASED ON CURRENT
OBS.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK IN ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
EVENING. 2 SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN
DURING THE TAF PD WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO. FOR NOW...WILL
ONLY INCLUDE VCSH FOR THE CSV AREA. OTW...CIGS AND VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
FORECAST QUANDARIES...LIGHT SHWR CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WX
PATTERN MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...TEMPS.
PTCLDY SKIES SHOULD START OFF THE EVENING...BUT BY MID EVENING...
INCREASING CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE
ALOFT...TO PROVIDE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR GENERALLY MOCLDY SKIES
WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
MID STATE...AS THERE MAYBE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF RAINFALL. WILL GO WITH LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO EXPECT AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SAT WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES...IN THE LOWER 60S...AROUND
60 PLATEAU. RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BUILD INTO THE MID STATE THRU
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S AND HIGHS ON SUN ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AS THIS
COLDER AIRMASS WORKS ACROSS THE MID STATE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE MON...TUE...WED...WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMUP TREND
WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS AS THE SFC RIDGE
THAT WILL BRING US TO THE COOLER TEMPS OVER THIS WEEKEND LIFTS INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND PUTS US INTO A SELY SFC FLOW AND SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN THE MID STATE AREA WED INTO THU. LATEST GFS/EURO NOT SO FAR APART
AS WITH THIS MORNING`S PACKAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING A HUNDRED MILE
OR TWO FASTER. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AT THIS POINT CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING BUT UP POPS ON WED NIGHT INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY AND MADE A WX TRANSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ON THU W TO
E AS SFC FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU MID STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS...WITH
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MID STATE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN HIGHS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO...RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO
SHORTWAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TROUGH ARE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE 850MB/925MB FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW IS DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...NOTED
BY RAP 925MB TEMPS OF 0-2C NOW COMPARED TO 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS
WHICH REPORTED 4-5C. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRATUS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRIEFLY
CLEARING OUT LAST EVENING. TO THE NORTH SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
A SURFACE TROUGH...EVEN COOLER AIR AND MORE STRATUS DOES ACCOMPANY
IT. OFF TO OUR WEST...CLEARING IS TRYING TO MARCH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOVING THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AND DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GIVEN ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE CLEARING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK INTO AND
PROBABLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WISCONSIN LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN STRATUS THE LONGEST...AIDED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TOO
DROPPING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK...BUT THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
HAVING MORE SUN TODAY WILL HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS ADVECTED IN THIS MORNING. STILL...WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY
PROGGED BETWEEN 1-3C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. AT 00Z...MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...
BY 12Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. THUS...COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
WENT NEAR/BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. 02.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
DIG AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY 00Z TUESDAY...CAUSING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE 3 PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...
1. THE FIRST IS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO WHICH GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL SATURATION. THE 02.00Z NAM DEPICTS A DRY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY WHEREAS THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
ALL DEPICT SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARDS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DURING LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ISSUES...THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS AND RAISED
CHANCES.
2. THE SECOND IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT TO NEAR
I-35 IN MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS OF A WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION FORMING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. HERE TOO LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD
COME INTO PLAY...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
EXISTS TO INCREASE CHANCES TOWARDS 50.
3. THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOST SIGNIFICANT COMES OUT OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUE...LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WED. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS COMPLETELY EXITED BY NOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE...NOW TOWARDS 80 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING THAT REQUIRES WATCHING IS IF DYNAMIC COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD PLAY A ROLE AND TRANSITION SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN
OUR NORTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCERNS...WINDS ARE ALSO
OF CONCERN...PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE 925MB WINDS
PICKING UP TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO 35-50 KT FOR 03Z TO 12Z
MONDAY. THE NAM IS BY THE FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
WINDS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 30
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WE
WILL BE HEADING BACK TO RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS DRY AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013
ANOTHER MASS OF CLOUDS HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS FEATURE
WILL DIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A FEW -SHRA ARE ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT MESO MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS KEEP THOSE MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. COULD
SEE A DIP INTO MVFR VSBYS /4-5SM/ OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY BR WOULD
MIX-OUT BY MID MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE POST THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP CLEAR THE SKIES LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SAT...WITH SKC/SCT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY. SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG AT KLSE.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT/DECOUPLE WITH SUNDOWN...AND STAY LIGHT THROUGH
THE NIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS PICK UP ABOVE
THE NEAR SFC INVERSION AFTER 06Z SUN...BUT IF THAT OCCURS...NOT SURE
IT WOULD IMPACT THE FOG POTENTIAL TOO MUCH. ITS A SCENARIO THAT
BEARS WATCHING.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...BECOMING GUSTY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR
CONCERNS - ESPECIALLY AT KLSE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
920 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.UPDATE...
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS TIME CONTINUES TO
MOVE SOUTH AND ON TARGET TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING
AS FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE LATEST SUITE OF HI
RES MODELS. 12Z SNDG AND FORECAST SNDG PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT
EVEN MENTION OF TSTM AT THIS TIME SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST.
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS EARLY MORNING`S DISCUSSION, MAIN STORY FOR TODAY
CONTINUES TO BE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR RECORD HI TEMPS ALONG EAST
COAST.
BEYOND THAT, MAIN STORY FOR COMING DAYS AND EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN BARRIER ISLANDS AROUND
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (MID MORNINGS/EVENINGS) AND BEACH EROSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR ANY OF THE SITES
BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM. EXPECTING FROPA TO OCCUR AROUND 23Z AT
KMIA AND KTMB AND 22Z AT ALL OTHER SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
.RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
.MARINE AND ATLANTIC COASTAL IMPACTS SUN-WED, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THEN...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND IT, DRIVING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FL, BUT TEMPS REALLY JUST LOWER TO
CLIMO AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM BY
SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY OF THIS FORECAST -
NE-E WINDS WILL PICK UP SUN-WED, DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
THE TYPICAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES ON THE BAYSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND, DUE TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DURING THIS PERIOD
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND. THE WORSE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR MON-TUE. THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN OUR PRODUCTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS AGAIN INCREASING BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE WILL DROP ONLY BRIEFLY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SPIKE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER.
THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRIEF, AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
A RETURN TO 70F DEWPOINTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90.
MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT OR HIGHER
SUN-WED, POSSIBLY EVEN TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND 8 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 2ND:
WEST PALM BEACH...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 92F-1919
FORT LAUDERDALE...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 90F-1919
MIAMI.............FORECAST: 89F, RECORD: 89F-1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 71 81 70 / 20 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 71 82 74 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 85 65 84 64 / 30 10 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR ANY OF THE SITES
BUT DID NOT MENTION ATTM. EXPECTING FROPA TO OCCUR AROUND 23Z AT
KMIA AND KTMB AND 22Z AT ALL OTHER SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
..RECORD HEAT POSSIBLE EAST COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TODAY...
..MARINE AND ATLANTIC COASTAL IMPACTS SUN-WED, DUE TO STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THEN...
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH
A NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE WITH
THIS BAND REMAINING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY, WITH IT WEAKENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. SREF POPS ARE LOW
TODAY TOO...ESPECIALLY SE COAST. HRRR SHOWS NO SHOWERS ANYWHERE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A DRY DAY TODAY,
BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE NAPLES AREA TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THUNDER THREAT LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION SO
REMOVED THIS FROM THE FORECAST. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL
BE THE HEAT...POSSIBLY RECORD HEAT AS THICKNESS RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON A SW WIND FLOW WILL ACCELERATE TEMPS POSSIBLY TO RECORD
LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND IT, DRIVING A COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIRMASS INTO SOUTH FL, BUT TEMPS REALLY JUST LOWER TO
CLIMO AS WINDS QUICKLY TURN NE OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM BY
SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO THE BIGGER WEATHER STORY OF THIS FORECAST -
NE-E WINDS WILL PICK UP SUN-WED, DUE TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE
STRONG ONSHORE WIND WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF INCREASING SURF,
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, BEACH EROSION, AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN
THE TYPICAL SUSCEPTIBLE LOCALES ON THE BAYSIDE OF THE BARRIER
ISLAND, DUE TO ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES DURING THIS PERIOD
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND. THE WORSE CONDITIONS LOOK
TO OCCUR MON-TUE. THESE IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED
IN OUR PRODUCTS.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF NEXT WORK
WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONT COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH NE-E WINDS AGAIN INCREASING BEHIND IT.
MOISTURE WILL DROP ONLY BRIEFLY ON MONDAY, BUT THEN LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE ATLANTIC EACH DAY WITH POSSIBLY A SLIGHT SPIKE IN ACTIVITY
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER.
THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BRIEF, AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW
A RETURN TO 70F DEWPOINTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 80S TO EVEN NEAR 90.
MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH WED...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASING SEAS TO 7 FT OR HIGHER
SUN-WED, POSSIBLY EVEN TO 10 FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY TUESDAY.
WAVE PERIODS ARE SHOWN TO BE AROUND 8 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR TODAY, NOVEMBER 2ND:
WEST PALM BEACH...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 92F-1919
FORT LAUDERDALE...FORECAST: 90F, RECORD: 90F-1919
MIAMI.............FORECAST: 89F, RECORD: 89F-1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 71 81 70 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 71 82 74 / 10 20 20 10
MIAMI 89 71 82 72 / 10 20 20 10
NAPLES 85 65 84 64 / 20 10 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance
&&
.Short term.../Today through Monday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Early morning water vapor loops show a strong impulse moving
southeast into west central Illinois. Although moisture is very
limited...radar and sfc obs indicate a small area of showers north
of kstl. Most of the model guidance /including the 00z
nam...gfs...and sref/ develops some light precip across sw Indiana
and northwest Kentucky this morning. Some recent HRRR guidance has
also shown precip in this area. Therefore...will add isolated
showers for sw Indiana and parts of west Kentucky today as diurnal
heating enhances the activity. Lapse rates will be steep from the
surface to 700 mb by late this morning. High temps across the region
will be very close to mos guidance...mostly in the upper 50s.
Skies will clear rather quickly this evening as the low levels
stabilize and a strong ridge /surface and aloft/ builds east across
Missouri. Low temps will likely be cooler than most computer
guidance due to the very dry air mass and weakening low level winds.
Expect quite a bit of frost and even some freezing temps in the
normally colder low spots. Since the growing season has
ended...there will be no headlines.
A surface ridge will move overhead on Sunday...bringing clear skies
and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s as the 850 mb
thermal trough makes its closest approach.
Southerly return flow will begin to develop Sunday night and
strengthen on Monday. High clouds will stream northeast on
Monday...but there should still be considerable sunshine. Temps will
moderate to about seasonal norms.
.Long Term.../Monday night through Friday/
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
At the beginning of the long term period, synoptically speaking the
region will be under southwest flow aloft combined with retreating
surface high pressure to our east.
Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast Monday
night as an H5 trough pushes a surface low and associated cold front
toward our region. Latest guidance suggests the leading edge of
precipitation only making it into our far western counties by 12Z
Tuesday.
With flow aloft remaining out of the southwest, it will be nearly
parallel to the frontal boundary, so it`s eastward progress will be
rather slow. The best chances for precipitation will be Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the front slides slowly across the area.
Precipitation chances will linger over the eastern third of our CWA
on Thursday before the system pulls off to the east. Instability
remains rather weak through the period so thunderstorm activity
should be somewhat limited. We are not looking for severe weather at
this time, but due to the slow movement of this system, models are
indicating precipitation banding. With models also showing surface
dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range with PWAT values >1.50
inches, our biggest threat with this system may very well be locally
heavy rainfall.
In the wake of this system, surface high pressure and rising heights
aloft should keep the region dry through the remainder of the
period. Temperatures at or slightly above normal will continue
through the first half of the long term period, then drop back to at
or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
A strong upper level disturbance has spread some light showers into
southern Illinois early this morning. These showers will move across
the kevv/kowb taf sites during the morning. Any vsby restrictions
will be brief and not mentioned in tafs. As daytime heating
commences...expect widespread cu or stratocu clouds. Cigs should be
mainly vfr...though intervals of mvfr cigs are likely in the
kevv/kowb areas this afternoon. Winds will increase and become
rather gusty from the northwest today.
Skies will clear out this evening as the disturbance moves away and
the lower atmosphere stabilizes. Winds will diminish below 5 knots.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JAP
AVIATION...MY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1007 AM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND BECOMING A BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE EXITING COLD FRONT AND THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION - A DAY APART. THIS IN-BETWEEN DAY WILL BE CROSS BETWEEN
YESTERDAY AND TOMORROW IN TERMS OF CLOUDS/PRECIP/SKY COVER. NOT AS
WARM AS FRIDAY BUT TEMPS IN THE 60S WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVG. A
BRISK WLY WIND LATER THIS AFTN WILL START THE PROCESS OF DRYING
OUT THE AIR...SETTING US UP FOR MORE OF A FALL-LIKE DAY ON SUNDAY.
PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTN...A FRACTION OF WHAT BANKS UP AGAINST THE WRN SIDES OF THE
APLCNS. HI-RES NEAR TERM GUIDANCE LIKE THE HRRR AND SOME WRF RUNS
PAINT THE SERN CWA - NAMELY LOWER SRN MD AND THE SRN DC SUBURBS W/
SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE BEFORE THE ENTIRE
UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST.
FROM PREV DISC...UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND CONTINUE
TNGT. THERMAL PROFILES COOL...ALLOWING FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO MIX
WITH AND THEN TURN TO SNOW AT HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WRN
ALLEGHENY FRONT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...UPR TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH THAT NIGHT.
MORNING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR WITH CRYSTAL SUNNY SKIES AS THE 1035MB SFC
BUILDS IN. CHILLY NORTH WIND GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE 40S. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY LOW 50S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR AND COLD. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 MPH WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPR 20S INLAND...LOW TO MID 30S URBAN AND NEAR
SHORE. WIND CHILLS EAS
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY
WITH A WEDGE RIDGE STRETCHING SW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT A
RETURN FLOW ON WEDNESDAY BEGINS A WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS.
IN WHAT IS THE CURRENT STORM TRACK...ANOTHER LOW CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY PER THE 00Z ECMWF AND GFS.
FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM...WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS ONE FOR POTENTIAL
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TDA AND TNGT. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTN...GUSTING 15-20 KT.
VFR RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS THROUGH MONDAY
AND PERSISTS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CONTINUED VFR OUTSIDE OF POTENTIAL
MORNING FOG. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA IN EFFECT STARTING LATE THIS AFTN FOR THE UPPER TIDAL POTOMAC
AND NRN CHSPK BAY. SCA IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS TNGT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SCA EXPANDS FOR ALL
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUST
POTENTIAL OF 25 TO 30 KT. SCA WILL NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. RETURN SLY FLOW BEGINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ530>532-539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ535-538.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ536-538-542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-541-543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ535.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ536.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...JRK/BAJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
328 AM PDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST WILL MOVE
ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY. COOL...BLUSTERY AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL RAPIDLY WITH THE
FRONT...REACHING THE CASCADE PASSES BY AFTERNOON AND ACCUMULATING
SEVERAL INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING MORE
SEASONABLY WET NOVEMBER WEATHER TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST...DEEPENING BELOW 1000
MB WITHIN THE PAST HOUR AS INDICATED BY BUOY 46206 OFF VANCOUVER
ISLAND. THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO BE NEAR CAPE
FLATTERY...WHICH IS WHERE THE 06Z NAM PLACES THE LOW AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE. OVERALL IT APPEARS THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z WRF-GFS HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA ON THE POSITION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW...WILL BE LEANING
HEAVILY ON THAT GUIDANCE FOR OUR FORECAST THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE
00Z ECMWF APPEARS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAST WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW...THE OVERALL PICTURE PAINTED BY THE MODEL DOES NOT COMPARE
WELL WITH WHAT HAS BEEN UNFOLDING OFFSHORE THE PAST FEW HOURS. PLUS
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH LESS CONSISTENT ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS VERSUS THE GFS. SUSPECT THE LOW WILL BE IN THE
992-996 MB RANGE AS IT MOVES ONSHORE NEAR CAPE FLATTERY AROUND 6 AM
THIS MORNING.
ALL THIS SAID...EVEN THE MOST BULLISH MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THE LOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OR FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING HIGH WINDS TO THE
CENTRAL OREGON COAST. THEREFORE WE WILL BE CANCELING THE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. IT WILL STILL
BE WINDY...W-NW GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TODAY...BUT THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH. WAS TEMPTED TO CANCEL THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS WELL...BUT
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE BENT-BACK OCCLUSION COULD NIP ASTORIA
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE. AREAS TILLAMOOK
SOUTHWARD HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF SEEING SUCH WINDS. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE AN IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT FOR THE WASHINGTON COAST...WITH
THE GREATEST FOCUS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA. 09Z RAP MODEL AND 06Z
NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW 50-60 KT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH STRONG
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THIS SHOULD EASILY SURFACE. THUS THE
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE S WA COAST LOOKS TO BE IN THE BEST SHAPE.
ONE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THIS WIND WARNING IS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE W-NW...WHICH COULD CAUSE MORE DAMAGE
THAN THE MORE TYPICAL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUR COASTAL HIGH
WIND EVENTS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE FAIRLY
RARE ALONG OUR COAST...SO VEGETATION MAY HAVE A HARDER TIME STANDING
UP AGAINST SUCH WIND.
INLAND AREAS WILL BE BREEZY TODAY AS WELL...WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH
LIKELY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. THE CASCADES WILL BE WINDY BY AFTERNOON
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND SNOW LEVELS DRAMATICALLY LOWER TO BELOW
THE PASSES.
THIS BRINGS US TO THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT ASPECT OF THIS STORM. STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SET UP A HEAVY SNOW EVENT
FOR THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD FALL TO 3000-4000 FEET BY
MIDDAY...WITH STEADY OROGRAPHIC FLOW LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE 8-16 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR AND ABOVE PASS LEVEL...A SOLID SNOW ADVISORY FOR
24-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS. OFTEN TIMES IN THESE STRONG OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE
FLOW SITUATIONS MODELS WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE QPF...BUT OUR CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO TAKE THIS INTO CONSIDERATION SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS
MADE TO OUR QPF/SNOW FORECAST.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS A STRONG
COLD POOL MOVES OVERHEAD BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. 06Z NAM SHOWS 500 MB
TEMPS AROUND -30 DEG C OVER THE PORTLAND METRO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD TRIGGER A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD COME WITH SMALL HAIL
AS FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ALTOGETHER. HOWEVER ISENTROPIC
LIFT STARTS BACK UP MONDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN FOR THE DISTRICT. ONSHORE FLOW AND A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD KEEP DECENT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES IN THE PICTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WEAGLE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR
A DRY DAY THIS WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
THERE STILL REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
WHAT COULD BE ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST
THURSDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN BRINGS IN A LOW VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
MOVING ONSHORE TODAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY TO OUR NORTH AND THE 06Z GFS SPLITS THE SYSTEM AND TAKES MOST
OF THE ENERGY TO OUR SOUTH. MOST MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING
IN NEXT WEEKEND. SO...KEPT POPS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CLIMO OR A BIT ABOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS LIKELY POPS
FOR THE MOST PART. WEAGLE
&&
.AVIATION...STEADY RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. AS A RESULT...FLIGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE DETERIORATED IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND
DECREASED VSBYS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THE PROMINENT CAT...BUT BRIEF
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT NEARS. THE
QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ONSHORE BY 12Z...THEN INTO THE
CASCADES AFTER 16Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR THE NORTH COAST AND VALLEY SITES. RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO A SHOWER PATTERN LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH
MIXING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING...BUT
PERIODS OF MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTY
S WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS A FRONT BRINGS STEADY RAIN. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. EXPECT
TRANSITION TO VFR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE
UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. PYLE
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO INCREASE THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT THEM TO COME UP RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ONSHORE AFTER 12Z...WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST SO NUDGED WINDS DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL OR WATERS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
UP NORTH OFF THE WA COAST...WHERE A FEW GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 50 KT
RANGE STILL LOOK POSSIBLE. GUSTY NW POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL KEEP
GALES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO
DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW.
EXPECT CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS TO BUILD QUICKLY THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT. REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. SEAS MAY REACH NEAR 20 FT THIS AFTERNOON. BRISK W TO NW
WINDS ON SAT WILL MAINTAIN CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...SEAS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING...FALLING
BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS BY SUN NIGHT. PYLE
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH
OREGON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 AM PST
SUNDAY.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
648 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO...RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO
SHORTWAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TROUGH ARE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE 850MB/925MB FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW IS DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...NOTED
BY RAP 925MB TEMPS OF 0-2C NOW COMPARED TO 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS
WHICH REPORTED 4-5C. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRATUS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRIEFLY
CLEARING OUT LAST EVENING. TO THE NORTH SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
A SURFACE TROUGH...EVEN COOLER AIR AND MORE STRATUS DOES ACCOMPANY
IT. OFF TO OUR WEST...CLEARING IS TRYING TO MARCH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOVING THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AND DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GIVEN ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE CLEARING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK INTO AND
PROBABLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WISCONSIN LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN STRATUS THE LONGEST...AIDED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TOO
DROPPING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK...BUT THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
HAVING MORE SUN TODAY WILL HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS ADVECTED IN THIS MORNING. STILL...WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY
PROGGED BETWEEN 1-3C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. AT 00Z...MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...
BY 12Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. THUS...COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
WENT NEAR/BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. 02.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
DIG AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY 00Z TUESDAY...CAUSING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE 3 PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...
1. THE FIRST IS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO WHICH GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL SATURATION. THE 02.00Z NAM DEPICTS A DRY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY WHEREAS THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
ALL DEPICT SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARDS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DURING LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ISSUES...THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS AND RAISED
CHANCES.
2. THE SECOND IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT TO NEAR
I-35 IN MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS OF A WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION FORMING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. HERE TOO LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD
COME INTO PLAY...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
EXISTS TO INCREASE CHANCES TOWARDS 50.
3. THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOST SIGNIFICANT COMES OUT OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUE...LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WED. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS COMPLETELY EXITED BY NOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE...NOW TOWARDS 80 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING THAT REQUIRES WATCHING IS IF DYNAMIC COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD PLAY A ROLE AND TRANSITION SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN
OUR NORTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCERNS...WINDS ARE ALSO
OF CONCERN...PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE 925MB WINDS
PICKING UP TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO 35-50 KT FOR 03Z TO 12Z
MONDAY. THE NAM IS BY THE FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
WINDS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 30
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WE
WILL BE HEADING BACK TO RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS DRY AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT FRI NOV 2 2013
CLOUDS/CIGS IN THE 2500-4500 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING
WILL RAISE ANY MVFR CLOUDS/CIGS TO VFR THRU THE MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON THE PATTERN WILL START TO PROGRESS RATHER
QUICKLY WITH THE SFC-700MB FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE WESTERLY...
AND ADVECTING THE CLOUD DECKS EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS AROUND 15Z
AT KRST AND 20Z AT KLSE. SOME SCT STRATO-CU LOOK TO PERSIST THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH SKC EXPECTED AFTER 23Z-00Z.
ONE QUESTION IS VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN
MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE/BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING
BUT THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS VERY TRANSIENT AND WELL EAST OF THE FCST
AREA BY 12Z SUN. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS. LEFT BR/FG
MENTION OUT OF KLSE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE/LESS THAN
IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR VALLEY FOG TO FORM.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THRU SUNDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 13-23KTS G25-30KTS MUCH OF SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON. THERE
WILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS WITH WINDS AT 925MB IN
THE 45-55KT RANGE MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
650 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED SHOWERS IN LANCASTER
AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN
THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPDATED POP AND WX GRIDS TO GIVE A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CAE NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE AFTER 02Z...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS MAY GUST BRIEFLY
TO AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL ABOUT 01Z-02Z. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY AT SPEEDS 5 TO 8 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED
SHOWERS IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPDATED POP AND WX
GRIDS TO GIVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CAE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE
AFTER 02Z...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS MAY GUST BRIEFLY
TO AROUND 15 KTS UNTIL ABOUT 01Z-02Z. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
SETTLES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH LATER THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. NE WINDS AFTER
SUNRISE SUNDAY AT SPEEDS 5 TO 8 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON THURSDAY. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME CIG AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
545 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED
SHOWERS IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. UPDATED POP AND WX
GRIDS TO GIVE A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM CAE NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE
AFTER 02Z...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS GUSTING
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN A FEW AREAS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ALONG THE EAST COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HELP CAUSE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME NORTH PART
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED
SHOWERS IN LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES AND RADAR SHOWED
DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM IN THE MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRYING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. WE FORECASTED JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL DOMINATE. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTH PART. THE
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT POSSIBLE FROST BUT ALSO EXPECT SOME WIND SO
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD NOT HAVE FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE SHIFTING
FARTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BECOME DEEP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS INDICATE POPS
OF 30 TO 60 PERCENT. THE MODELS SHOW DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS GUSTING
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN A FEW AREAS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL CENTER ON
POTENTIAL WINTER STORM DURING THE START OF THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THE
SYSTEMS ARRIVAL ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAIN IMPACT ACROSS CWA WILL BE
TIMING OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO H5
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DEFINITE
DIFFERENCES APPARENT WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF PRESSURE
RISES/WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS WOULD
SEE A 35-40KT GUST BRIEFLY AS FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WOULD HAPPEN ON A BIG ENOUGH SCALE TO WARRANT A WIND HIGHLIGHT
IS LOW. DESPITE BRIEF WINDOW OF STRONG FRONTAL SCALE ASCENT AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED IN THETA E LAPSE RATES...APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY THAT ANY LAYERS WOULD SATURATE AND ALLOW FOR ANY RELEASE OF
INSTABILITY SO EXPECT A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. DIV
Q/FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ALL LINE UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF BETTER FORCING SO REALLY CANNOT
RULE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT DURING THE
PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENT IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE...TYPE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN ESPECIALLY AS SOME OF THE COLDER MODELS (GEM/ECMWF) HAVE
SHIFTED TO WARMER SOLUTIONS. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING
SNOW POINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE QUITE A BIT...BUT
THERE REMAINS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF REPUBLICAN RIVER. AT THIS TIME...THINK POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
PRECIPITATION BAND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 6 INCHES IN
THIS AREA DESPITE CHANGE OVER CONCERNS. STILL CANT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW SCENARIO BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.
IN THE EXTENDED (TUES NIGHT-SATURDAY)...DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS AND THEIR REMAINS A FAIR
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
WHILE I THINK PROBABILITIES ARE CERTAINLY SMALLER DURING TUES NIGHT
THAN ON TUES...THINK LINGERING PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME. SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PATTERN THURSDAY ONWARD. GFS TAKES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ALMOST
CUTTING THIS FEATURE OFF FOR A TIME WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES NOT REALLY FAVORING EITHER MODEL AT THIS
TIME AND PLAN ON KEEPING FORECAST AT CONSENSUS VALUES UNTIL PATTERN
EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE ISSUE TO
FOCUS ON FOR TAFS IS THE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON MIXING TAKES PLACE. KGLD AND KMCK COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AT KGLD AND WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE...WITH THE DECOUPLING OF
THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
CONSIDERING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE RAP...NAM...AND GFS...SUGGESTED
IT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FROM
03-06Z FOR KGLD AND 03-08Z FOR KMCK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
156 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR
CWA ON EASTERN FLANK OF LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING BREEZING CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT WEST OVERNIGHT WITH
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW AND WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWS
GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS
MAY BE ABLE TO COOL TO NEAR FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER
WHERE WINDS STAY UP WE MAY ONLY SEE LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS THE LEE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER OUR CWA...WITH
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. A
DEEP DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO BEYOND MID-HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BEHIND TROUGH AXIS AND FRONT IN THE NORTH. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS AND STRONG WAA COULD SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WHERE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON H85 WINDS IN THE 40KT RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WE
WILL NEED GOOD MIXING TO BRING THESE BETTER WINDS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE IN QUESTION WITH MODEL TEMP PROFILES
GENERALLY LIMITING MIXING TO ABOUT 850MB IN THE EAST...AND CLOUD
COVER COULD ALSO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE CLOUDS...I THINK WE SHOULD STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
DECENT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DEEPER DRY
ADIABATIC LAYER ADVERTISED IN THE WEST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW LOWER TD
VALUES TO MIX TO THE SURFACE...AND THIS COINCIDES WHERE RH VALUES
BETWEEN 15-20 PERCENT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS I WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
GOVE/GRAHAM COUNTIES. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY REGARDING
WINDS IN THE WEST...HOWEVER CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS US WITHIN RFW
CRITERIA...ASSUMING DEEPER MIXING MATERIALIZES. I DECIDED TO ISSUE
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH DURING THIS FORECAST CYCLE...TO GIVE US
SOME FLEXIBILITY UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
THREAT OF A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LASTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
QUITE HIGH...HOWEVER THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THROWN
SOME DOUBT BACK INTO THE EQUATION. AT THIS TIME...THINKING IS THAT
THIS LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN IS AN ANOMALY/OUTLIER. THIS PACKAGE
WILL LEAN ON A MIX OF THE CANADIAN...GFS AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
EUROPEAN.
A LARGE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EJECTING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. COLD AIR
SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. WITH CLOUDS ON THE
INCREASE AND BECOMING OVERCAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION...THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY AND REMAIN NEAR FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF GFS GUIDANCE HAS COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY...BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM YESTERDAYS RUN AT THIS TIME. 850 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO
COOLED AS WELL SO THE GFS WOULD BE IN FAVOR OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH RAIN...MIXING WITH SNOW LATER ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. THE CANADIAN MODEL REMAINS THE COOLEST
SOLUTION YET THE MOST STABLE SOLUTION AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN
TO RUN VARIATION WITH THIS MODEL. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE SOLUTIONS SO HAVE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL
HAS COME IN MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...UP TO 10
DEGREES WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. THINK THIS IS COMING FROM SOME
PROJECTED WARMING FROM THE WEST AS THE STORM CLEARS OUT EARLIER.
THIS DOES RAISE SOME CONCERN BUT SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST RUN THAT
SHOWS THIS SOLUTION...WILL NEGLECT IT UNLESS THIS SOLUTION BECOMES
PERSISTENT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.
WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH...THE EUROPEAN MODEL NOW
SHOWS A WEAKER...FASTER MOVING SYSTEM. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO
CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS..CANADIAN AND PREVIOUS RUN OF THE EUROPEAN
WHICH SHOW A STRONGER...SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM. MODELS REMAIN NEARLY
IDENTICAL WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THESE LOCATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW WITH SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE ICE
CRYSTAL FORMATION ZONE. THERE IS ALSO SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST AS
DEPICTED FROM OMEGA FIELDS/CROSS SECTIONS SO THERE MAY BE SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION. BASED ON THIS...THINKING A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY HEAVY...WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE
PROFILE FROM MOST MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...A LATER
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS FORECAST SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH
LESS SOUTHEAST OF A NORTON TO TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE. THIS SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND IT IS POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CLEARS OUT TUESDAY NIGHT...
PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
ANY SNOW COVER LEFT ON THE GROUND. FROM THURSDAY ON...EXPECT A
WARMING TREND AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN WITH WARMING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED UP WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END
OF NEXT WEEK SO HAVE MADE THOSE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SAT NOV 2 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONE ISSUE TO
FOCUS ON FOR TAFS IS THE WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES THE TAF SITES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS OVER
THE AREA...AND AFTERNOON MIXING TAKES PLACE. KGLD AND KMCK COULD SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE AT KGLD AND WILL
INCREASE AT KMCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WINDS DECOUPLE...WITH THE DECOUPLING OF
THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
CONSIDERING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...THE RAP...NAM...AND GFS...SUGGESTED
IT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS...FROM
03-06Z FOR KGLD AND 03-08Z FOR KMCK. AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ027-028-041-042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR COZ254.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1224 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
A weak surface high pressure system, oriented from basically north
to south across western Kansas, will be replaced by a more
dominant lee side trough across eastern Colorado by mid day
today. Drier air has been seeping into the far west counties,
such as Hamilton, Stanton, Kearny, and Grant counties this morning.
Temperatures at 2 am CDT were already near 32F or lower, so the
hard freeze warning still seems on track, and will continue it
through 8 am this morning. Little or no clouds are expected today,
except a few high, passing cirrus clouds. There is a broad upper
ridge of high pressure over the Rockies, which will move over the
plains by late today. There is not too much upper moisture
evident in the northwest flow, but a few cirrus clouds are usually
seen during the afternoon hours during this pattern. Since the
surface flow will be slow to turn to the southwest, today will
warm up slowly. I may trim max temps back a tad today in our east,
thinking the southwest warming will be delayed. The HRRR and RUC
have max temps slightly cooler than we currently have in our grids,
so one or two degrees should not matter too much. Northwest winds
this morning in associated with the surface high pressure ridge
will be around 10 mph, but once the lee side trough gets
established and southwest flow takes over, wind speeds should be
in the 12 to 15 mph range.
For tonight, I did not change any weather parameters. Mostly clear
skies should continue with upper high pressure migrating east over
Kansas. Nearer the surface, the lee side trough over eastern
Colorado will move southeastward into Oklahoma as a wind shift.
So surface winds will stay up most of the night, and be rather
breezy as the pressure gradient stays tight. The resultant lows
will be elevated from this morning, ending up in the upper 30s to
around 40F degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
The weather pattern will undergo significant changes in the Sunday
through Wednesday time frame. Warm dry and windy conditions are
anticipated Sunday. A rapidly approaching upper longwave trough
creating strong southwest flow aloft will induce enhanced pressure
falls across eastern Colorado. This evolution combined with strong
surface high pressure over the Gulf states should create a 10-13 mb
pressure gradient across western and central Kansas, a strong 50
knot 850 mb level jet streak and reasonably steep low level lapse
rates over the region for a very windy morning and afternoon. A wind
advisory has been hoisted from around 9 am Sunday through early
Sunday evening.
This same approaching trough will generate a strong
potential vorticity anomaly into the southern Rockies by Monday,
allowing an dynamic precipitation system to develop across western
Kansas in the Monday through Tuesday time frame. At this point the
GFS appears to significantly lag the ECMWF in timing, as is also
more aggressive developing a stronger frontogenesis field in the
deeper cold air aloft. Until the forecast time frame draws closer and
models begin to hopefully converge in solution, the best forecast
remains for strong PVA/isentropic lift and warm air advection forced
showers or thunderstorms on Monday with a better chance for strong
cold advection with rain/snow and windy conditions in the Tuesday and
Tuesday night time frame. It appears at this time that the heavier
precipitation would most likely be across northwest Kansas into
Nebraska.
A relatively flat upper ridge redevelops for the rest of the week
with lee troughing across the front range, suggesting warming back
towards normal seasonal high temperatures with likely southerly
and breezy conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
Surface high pressure will move southeast into Oklahoma this
afternoon as a trough of low pressure develops in the lee of the
Rockies over eastern Colorado and Wyoming. This will bring
increasing southerly winds to western and central Kansas later
this afternoon and tonight. The pressure gradient increases
significantly on Sunday. Southerly winds will increase to around
30 knots with gusts to 40-45 knots by late morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 62 39 68 45 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 64 39 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 65 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 65 38 70 44 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 60 40 69 45 / 0 0 10 10
P28 62 38 67 47 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 8 AM to 8 PM CST Sunday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1206 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.SHORT TERM.../Today through Monday/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Early morning water vapor loops show a strong impulse moving
southeast into west central Illinois. Although moisture is very
limited...radar and sfc obs indicate a small area of showers north
of kstl. Most of the model guidance /including the 00z
nam...gfs...and sref/ develops some light precip across sw Indiana
and northwest Kentucky this morning. Some recent HRRR guidance has
also shown precip in this area. Therefore...will add isolated
showers for sw Indiana and parts of west Kentucky today as diurnal
heating enhances the activity. Lapse rates will be steep from the
surface to 700 mb by late this morning. High temps across the region
will be very close to mos guidance...mostly in the upper 50s.
Skies will clear rather quickly this evening as the low levels
stabilize and a strong ridge /surface and aloft/ builds east across
Missouri. Low temps will likely be cooler than most computer
guidance due to the very dry air mass and weakening low level winds.
Expect quite a bit of frost and even some freezing temps in the
normally colder low spots. Since the growing season has
ended...there will be no headlines.
A surface ridge will move overhead on Sunday...bringing clear skies
and light winds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s as the 850 mb
thermal trough makes its closest approach.
Southerly return flow will begin to develop Sunday night and
strengthen on Monday. High clouds will stream northeast on
Monday...but there should still be considerable sunshine. Temps will
moderate to about seasonal norms.
.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Friday/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
At the beginning of the long term period, synoptically speaking the
region will be under southwest flow aloft combined with retreating
surface high pressure to our east.
Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast Monday
night as an H5 trough pushes a surface low and associated cold front
toward our region. Latest guidance suggests the leading edge of
precipitation only making it into our far western counties by 12Z
Tuesday.
With flow aloft remaining out of the southwest, it will be nearly
parallel to the frontal boundary, so it`s eastward progress will be
rather slow. The best chances for precipitation will be Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the front slides slowly across the area.
Precipitation chances will linger over the eastern third of our CWA
on Thursday before the system pulls off to the east. Instability
remains rather weak through the period so thunderstorm activity
should be somewhat limited. We are not looking for severe weather at
this time, but due to the slow movement of this system, models are
indicating precipitation banding. With models also showing surface
dewpoints in the 55 to 60 degree range with PWAT values >1.50
inches, our biggest threat with this system may very well be locally
heavy rainfall.
In the wake of this system, surface high pressure and rising heights
aloft should keep the region dry through the remainder of the
period. Temperatures at or slightly above normal will continue
through the first half of the long term period, then drop back to at
or slightly below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Gusty NW winds will prevail through the afternoon, with generally
sct-bkn clouds just above MVFR threshold. By 06Z, skies should
become clear with light NNW winds slowly becoming NNE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
440 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THIS TROUGH
SHIFTED EAST OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...WHILE AN ELONGATED
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TO SE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD
TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM THE LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WISCONSIN
AND UP TO LAKE WINNIPEG. TO THE NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTH INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS LED TO OCCASIONAL LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR/OBS HAVE BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR
AND NORTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN (WITH DEEP LAKE INDUCED EQL TO
9-10KFT AND SFC-900MB LAPSE RATES TO 9C/KM)...ALONG WITH WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THE HELP OF THE ELONGATED SHORTWAVE. FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND
WEAKENING 850MB WINDS REDUCING FLOW OFF THE LAKE.
THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO PROVIDE A GLANCING BLOW TONIGHT AS IT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BEFORE STRENGTHENING
OVER LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR ALOFT WILL TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE CWA AS WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BUT...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING
FACTORS TO THE FORECAST. FIRST...THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS
(AROUND 850MB BASED OFF OBS AND RAP ANALYSIS) SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DROP
SOUTH DUE TO THE 850MB WINDS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS CREATES SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN IT/S EXACT COVERAGE AND SOUTHWARD EXTEND AND AM
WONDERING IF IT WILL GET MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN IT/S CURRENT
HOUGHTON TO NEWBERRY LINE. SECOND...WITH THE WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MESO-LOW
DEVELOPING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISRUPTED THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FEED INTO THAT AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE LAKE. SINCE COVERAGE SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE POPS FROM CHANCE TO ISOLATED AS THE WINDS OVER THE
WEST BECOME OFFSHORE. WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW BACKING WITH THE
APPROACHING RIDGE...EXPECT THIS MESO-LOW AND IT/S ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION TO BE PUSHED NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND LARGELY OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR (NORTHEAST OF THE KEWEENAW) BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS HAVE FARED WELL TODAY AND WILL USE THAT FOR PRECIP
TYPE TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND RAIN
ALONG THE KEWEENAW SHORELINE. FAIRLY UNCERTAIN IN THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS...BUT IF A STRONGER ONE DOES DEVELOP THERE COULD BE A
QUICK DUSTING IN THE KEWEENAW.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
AND THEN SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT LOW FORECAST.
ANY LOCATION WHERE THE CLOUDS STICK AROUND WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SINCE THERE IS A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CLOUDS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WONDERING HOW MUCH
OF IT WILL STICK TOGETHER THIS EVENING OR WILL DISSIPATE. MOST
CONFIDENT IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE KEWEENAW INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME
BREAKS OR CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES THE LAKE CLOUDS OFFSHORE. WHERE THERE IS CLEARING...COULD
SEE TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING THROUGH THE 20S...SO EVENING SHIFT MAY
NEED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS CLOUD CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE APPARENT
AFTER SUNSET.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST LATE TONIGHT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY DAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY. BUT WITH
LINGERING COOLER AIR AND MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WOULDN/T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM THE GARDEN
PENINSULA THROUGH SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A MESO-LOW DEVELOPING OVER
NW LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT
AND LOCATION.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW EXITING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD
STAY IN CHECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (BELOW 20KTS) BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET REALLY PICKS UP SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE CLOUDS
GONE...JUST SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FILTERED SUNSHINE AND SOME PERIODS
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 40S OVER MOST OF
THE CWA. COULD EVEN SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE
DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS OVER THE FAR WEST (ONTONAGON).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
THE CONUS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LONGWAVE TROF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST STATES WILL STEADILY SHIFT E
AS A NEW LONGWAVE TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN CONUS AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO TROFS WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS SUN TO THE E COAST MON/TUE. WITH
THE WRN TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEK...WEATHER WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED MON THROUGH WED WITH PERIODS OF
PCPN...CONTINUING OUR RECENT WET PATTERN. THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DRY DAYS LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROF REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. TEMPS WILL BE
VARIABLE THRU THE PERIOD...SWINGING TO ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE
TROF THEN TO BLO NORMAL AFTER ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER...TEMPS WON`T
DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE UNDER STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT BTWN BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES MOVING TO THE
LOWER LAKES REGION AND A LOW PRES TROF MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE ACROSS UPPER
MI/LAKE SUPERIOR. OVER THE WRN FCST AREA...THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
STRONG PER 295K SFC...AND THE MID LEVELS MOISTEN. QUESTION IS
WHETHER THE LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PCPN TO REACH
THE GROUND. THE GEM AND UKMET ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SOME PCPN
OCCURRING. SINCE THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN ADDITION TO ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA...INCLINED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR -SHRA OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR WRN UPPER MI LATE SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
INCREASING S WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT NOCTURNAL
TEMP FALL SUN NIGHT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE UPPER LAKES. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH TAIL OF A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO NRN ONTARIO SHOULD RESULT IN SHRA
CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE FCST AREA MON. DESPITE
CLOUD COVER AND SOME -SHRA...IT WILL BE A WARMER DAY UNDER SOUTHERLY
WINDS. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50...THOUGH
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER.
AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES LIFTING NNE TO HUDSON BAY...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO AT LEAST WRN UPPER MI AND
PERHAPS AS FAR E AS CNTRL UPPER MI MON NIGHT. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN
FOR A FARTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT INTO UPPER MI. WITH NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AND MAIN TROF STILL OUT
OVER THE ROCKIES...THERE SHOULD BE A DRYING TREND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MON NIGHT THRU TUE MORNING AND PROBABLY THRU TUE AFTN AS
FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY FALLS APART. WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO SCHC
WITH TIME ALONG FRONT MON NIGHT AND EVEN REMOVE ALL PCPN MENTION FOR
LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE TROF PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT/WED AND THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NE INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE SPINNING UP A SFC WAVE THAT TRACKS NE ALONG FRONT ACROSS
UPPER MI. MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE IS TIMING. THE 00Z ECWMF WAS 12HRS
FASTER THAN THE 00Z UKMET/GFS/GEM...BUT TODAYS 12Z RUN HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW INLINE WITH THE GFS. TODAYS 12Z GEM TRENDED 12HRS
SLOWER. OVERALL...THE GFS TIMING REPRESENTS A GOOD AVG OF TODAYS AND
RECENT DAYS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GENERAL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE
LAST DAY OR SO ARE FOR THE LOW TO BE WEAKER WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY
FARTHER E. THIS RESULTS IN A COOLER TEMP PROFILE OVER THE W AND MAY
LEAD TO PTYPE ISSUES OVER FAR WRN UPPER MI AS THE SFC WAVE LIFTS NE
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN UPPER MI. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THAT THE GULF WILL BE
OPENED UP...MODEL FCST OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DECENT DEEP
LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. POPS WERE
NUDGED UP TO CATEGORICAL TUE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT...GIVEN
RELATIVELY STABLE TIMING FOR TUE NIGHT BEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
PCPN IN RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE SLIGHT EASTWARD
TREND IN SFC LOW TRACK AND SINCE 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR SNOW...INCLUDED THE POSSIBIILTY OF
A SNOW/RAIN MIX OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE FAR W TUE NIGHT. PCPN
WILL WIND DOWN WED AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. HOWEVER...SOME LAKE
ENHANCED/TERRAIN ENHANCED PCPN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE W AND
NCNTRL WED/WED NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -5 TO -8C. PTYPE WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SHRA TO SHRASN THEN TO SHSN DURING THAT
TIME.
SOME LIGHT LES MAY LINGER INTO THU BEFORE HIGH PRES/DRIER AIR BRING
DRY WEATHER FOR THU NIGHT/FRI. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR SAT AS THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN TRENDING CONSIDERABLY FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THE 12Z RUN BRINGS SNOW/RAIN INTO UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A SFC LOW TRACKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS
HAS A HIGH PRES RIDGE. HOPEFULLY...THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
TREND TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
RELATIVELY COOL AIR FLOWING SOUTHWEST OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 3 TAF SITES. THINK THE BIGGEST
CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE STRONGER SHOWERS NEAR AND AFFECTING
KSAW AND OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AT
KIWD. THEN...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE AND
EXPECT A MESO-LOW TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AT KCMX DURING
THE EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND TRANSITION ALL
THREE SITES TO VFR. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS AND LEAD TO LIGHT AND VEERING WINDS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER ON SUNDAY...A LOW DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
TOWARDS LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY. THEN...
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
20-30KT SUN NIGHT/MON. HOWEVER...OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE TO GALES LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. GIVEN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE...A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE E HALF OF THE LAKE.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON NIGHT/TUE AS WEAKENING LOW
PRES TROF MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS
DRAMATICALLY. WINDS WILL FALL UNDER 20KT FOR A TIME LATE TUE. A LOW
PRES WAVE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TROF AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WED. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...A
PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE LOW LATE WED INTO THU. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SO
GALES APPEAR UNLIKELY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ264>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF/ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1240 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Sky conditions across the area have certainly been chaotic this
morning. However, as we head into the afternoon cloud trends
should become a bit more uniform as heating begins to break up the
rather solid cloud deck that currently extends from the eastern
Ozarks into south central Illinois, while it also will tend to
cause quite a bit of dirunal cloud development in the relatively
clear area currently over northeast Missouri and parts of central
Illinois. I have also continued a mention of a few sprinkles, as
HRRR and to a lessern extent the RUC are continuing a subtle hint
of precip as weak shortwave pushes into the are during max
heating.
Updated forecast reflecting these trends will be out shortly.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Northwest flow shortwaves will move sewd through our forecast area
today. One shortwave was over sern IA and nern MO, and another on
its heels over wrn MN and ern portions of South Dakota and
Nebraska. These shortwaves will not only bring cloud cover to our
area, but a few sprinkles as well. Small, light showers or at least
sprinkles were moving through portions fo west central Illinois
early this mrng ahead of the first shortwave. These shortwaves will
also bring a reinforcing shot of colder air to the region today.
The models bring the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm sewd through our
forecast area today. The relatively weak caa coupled with cloud
cover will lead to cooler high temperatures today compared to
yesterday. Todays high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
(Tonight - Sunday)
NW upper level flow will persist thru this period, maintaining
another 24 hours of cool and dry weather. It will be clear skies
for much of this period as well, with cirrus clouds increasing
Sunday afternoon. Preferred the warmer end of MOS temps for Sunday
maxes.
(Sunday Night - Early Thursday)
Back to SW upper level flow and a mostly open Gulf of Mexico for the
lion`s share of next week, which promises another stretch of wet
weather for our region. This period is expected to end with passage
of the main upper level TROF and surface cold front.
Rich and deep moisture will surge northward on Monday, setting the
stage for an outbreak of rain/showers from Monday night thru
Wednesday night, as a series of disturbance rolls thru, culminating
in the main TROF at the very end. There are some timing issues as
can be expected between the models, with the GFS a bit speedier than
the ECMWF, and this bias was reflected in the last system as well,
with the slower ECMWF winning out more. Similar to last week`s
system, it does not look favorable for widespread thunder but rather
isolated/imbedded within a larger area of precipitation. The
exception, of course, is if any organized strong-severe convection
can get going, but that does not look like a good possibility at
this time. What does look like a good possibility is widespread
beneficial rainfall totals of an inch or more during this period
with several waves of RA/SHRA in a very moist column for November.
Convection will merely be icing on the cake.
S flow at the lo levels will attempt to push temps back above normal
for daytime maxes, but the thick cloud cover and rain expected will
limit this pretty severely now that we are in November.
(Late Thursday - Friday)
In the wake of the TROF pushing E of our region, a brief NW flow
regime is expected to take hold once again with slightly below
average temps and dry weather.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
The stratus that developed across the southern half of the CWA
shortly after daybreak has now advected south of all TAF sites.
For the early afternoon hours considerable diurnally driven cloud
cover will be the rule at all TAF locations, with bases 3-5kft.
Subtle shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft will dive into
the area and this could even generate a few showers, but expect
these to be very spotty and odds are very low that they would have
impacts on any aviation weather near terminal points. Fairly
strong pressure gradient and deep mixing should allow northwest
winds to gust to around 20kts at most areas.
These clouds should rapidly dissipate amd winds will quickly
diminish in the 22-02z time frame as surface ridge builds into the
mid-Mississippi valley heading into the evening. Clear skies and
light winds are antiicipated during the overnight hours, although
some steam fog with MVFR/IFR vsbys is possible at climatologically
favored KSUS and KCPS.
Specifics for KSTL: Fairly typical early Fall weather conditions
expected this afternoon and into the early evening. Early on
expecting bkn clouds with bases between 3-5kft and northwest
winds gusting to around 20kts, but winds will diminish and clouds
will quickly dissipate heading into the early evening as heating
wanes and as surface ridge builds into the region. Clear skies and
light winds should then dominate tonight and into Sunday morning.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1144 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Sky conditions across the area have certainly been chaotic this
morning. However, as we head into the afternoon cloud trends
should become a bit more uniform as heating begins to break up the
rather solid cloud deck that currently extends from the eastern
Ozarks into south central Illinois, while it also will tend to
cause quite a bit of dirunal cloud development in the relatively
clear area currently over northeast Missouri and parts of central
Illinois. I have also continued a mention of a few sprinkles, as
HRRR and to a lessern extent the RUC are continuing a subtle hint
of precip as weak shortwave pushes into the are during max
heating.
Updated forecast reflecting these trends will be out shortly.
Truett
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Northwest flow shortwaves will move sewd through our forecast area
today. One shortwave was over sern IA and nern MO, and another on
its heels over wrn MN and ern portions of South Dakota and
Nebraska. These shortwaves will not only bring cloud cover to our
area, but a few sprinkles as well. Small, light showers or at least
sprinkles were moving through portions fo west central Illinois
early this mrng ahead of the first shortwave. These shortwaves will
also bring a reinforcing shot of colder air to the region today.
The models bring the zero degree C 850 mb isotherm sewd through our
forecast area today. The relatively weak caa coupled with cloud
cover will lead to cooler high temperatures today compared to
yesterday. Todays high temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for early November.
GKS
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
(Tonight - Sunday)
NW upper level flow will persist thru this period, maintaining
another 24 hours of cool and dry weather. It will be clear skies
for much of this period as well, with cirrus clouds increasing
Sunday afternoon. Preferred the warmer end of MOS temps for Sunday
maxes.
(Sunday Night - Early Thursday)
Back to SW upper level flow and a mostly open Gulf of Mexico for the
lion`s share of next week, which promises another stretch of wet
weather for our region. This period is expected to end with passage
of the main upper level TROF and surface cold front.
Rich and deep moisture will surge northward on Monday, setting the
stage for an outbreak of rain/showers from Monday night thru
Wednesday night, as a series of disturbance rolls thru, culminating
in the main TROF at the very end. There are some timing issues as
can be expected between the models, with the GFS a bit speedier than
the ECMWF, and this bias was reflected in the last system as well,
with the slower ECMWF winning out more. Similar to last week`s
system, it does not look favorable for widespread thunder but rather
isolated/imbedded within a larger area of precipitation. The
exception, of course, is if any organized strong-severe convection
can get going, but that does not look like a good possibility at
this time. What does look like a good possibility is widespread
beneficial rainfall totals of an inch or more during this period
with several waves of RA/SHRA in a very moist column for November.
Convection will merely be icing on the cake.
S flow at the lo levels will attempt to push temps back above normal
for daytime maxes, but the thick cloud cover and rain expected will
limit this pretty severely now that we are in November.
(Late Thursday - Friday)
In the wake of the TROF pushing E of our region, a brief NW flow
regime is expected to take hold once again with slightly below
average temps and dry weather.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2013
Upper level disturbances dropping sewd through the area today
will bring low-mid level cloudiness along with isolated light
showers or sprinkles. The majority of the cloud cover should be
VFR with the models indicating most of the moisture around
4000-6000 ft in height. This cloud cover should shift se of the
taf sites by this evng as subsidence increases over the region
with the sfc ridge across the Plains building ewd into our area.
Wly sfc winds in the St Louis metro area should become nwly as
they already have in UIN and COU. The surface wind will also
become gusty by late mrng. The wind will become light this evng
as the sfc ridge axis moves ewd through our area.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR, low-mid level cloud cover will advect sewd
through STL today with a brief sprinkle possible. The clouds
should move out of STL by early evng. The sfc wind will strengthen
and become gusty later this mrng. The sfc wind will become light
this evng, then sely by late Sunday mrng as the sfc ridge shifts
east of the area.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 PM EDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME
REINFORCED BY COLDER CANADIAN AIR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SLOWLY BECOME WARMER AND MOISTER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...AS EXPECTED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NC MTNS THIS AFTN. THEY WILL QUICKLY PUSH OUT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NC/SC LINE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS WILL BE RAISED A LITTLE IN THIS AREA PER THE
OUTPUT FROM THE HRRR AND SPC 4KM WRF.
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE FINALLY MOVED
OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE NOW SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT
SHORT WAVE OVER MIDDLE TN. RAISED DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...THOUGH
THEY SHOULD START TO MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY NOON. AT LEAST I HOPE
SO. IF WE MAINTAIN A POOL OF HIGHER BNDRY LAYER DEWPOINTS AS THE
BETTER FORCING SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST...A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW TSTMS WOULD RESULT.
AS OF 700 AM EDT...LOW CLOUD IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE BEST COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG OVER THE PIEDMONT NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR. LIGHT W TO NW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW CONTINUES
TO AID SLOW DRYING...BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER IN ERN
SECTIONS UNTIL 8 TO 9 AM. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DIG EWD THROUGH THE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THE
WAVE...BUT ROBUST LAPSE RATES OF 6+ DEG C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
WILL WARRANT LOW END HIGH MTN CHC POPS TODAY AS WELL AS AN ISOLD
SHOWER MENTION E OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE NRN HALF. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE VERY HIGHEST PEAKS AS THE TROUGH
PASSES...BUT WILL FEATURE MAINLY TEMPS SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN VERSUS
SNOW. IN ADDITION...THE MIXED LAYER WILL BECOME RATHER DEEP THIS
AFTN...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH E OF THE MTNS.
WHILE THE MTNS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR
MAXES...DOWNSLOPING WILL WARM FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE CLIMO.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE E TONIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL CHANNELED
VORTICITY MAY ARRIVE IN THE NW FLOW OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...NW FLOW
MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN MTNS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR SNOW LEVELS
TO FALL APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND QPF REMAINS VERY
LIMITED ON ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ADVERTISED IN THE HIGH MTNS. EXPECT MAINLY 30S MTNS TO LOWER
40S PIEDMONT FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT SATURDAY...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE REGION
SUN NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A 590 DM H5
HIGH WILL BUILD OFF THE SE COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SUN NIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
MONDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH N WINDS VEERING
TO THE NE BY MON AND CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THRU THE PERIOD UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE. A
PERSISTENT CAA NE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
MONDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES WARMING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH
CROSSES THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE OH AND TN RIVER
VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...AND THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. AS THE DEPARTING
TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES...A ZONAL FLOW SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR
SATURDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED TOWARD THE BLUE
RIDGE AS WINDS GRADUALLY VEER FORM NE TO E. MEANWHILE...MOIST
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SET UP OVER THE SURFACE
RIDGE. POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH FACING BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT...WHERE UPGLIDE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW EXHIBIT THE BEST OVERLAP.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FORM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT BECOME RATHER LIGHT...LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW....WHILE
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT.
DRYING WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE LAST PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER IN THE NC MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE TN BORDER IN MOIST NW UPSLOPE FLOW UNTIL DAYBREAK FRIDAY. COLD
ADVECTION COLD ADVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION END ON FRIDAY MORNING. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH A
LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE DUE TO CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION
FRIDAY WILL BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING PRODUCING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. VEERING WINDS WIL END DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ON SATURDAY...WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NC MTNS EARLY THIS AFTN.
MANY MESOSCALE MODELS BRING THE SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE AIRFIELD
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 20-22 UTC. I/VE ADDED VCSH AND GONE WITH A BKN CIG
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FORTUNATELY THE CLOUD BASES WILL BE HIGH.
HOWEVER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING UNDER THE HIGH-BASED SHRA MAY MIX DOWN
SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST
AT 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS THE REST OF THE AFTN...TURNING OUT
OF THE NW THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE MTNS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. I ADDED VCSH TO THE NC SITES...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
A LITTLE LONGER OVER THE UPSTATE. CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO GO
WITH A TEMPO YET...THOUGH I/M CLOSE AT KAVL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE WSW OVER THE UPSTATE...AND FROM THE NW UP THE FRENCH
BROAD VALLEY. A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE HIGH-BASED
SHRA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A BRIEF TSTM. NOT EXPECTING ANY CIG OR
VSBY PROBLEMS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...STRONG DRYING WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER TO THE N. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% LOW 57%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...MCAVOY
YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
332 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE
JUST TO OUR WEST OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THE 500MB TROUGH CAUSING THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF WI
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE
OUT THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS
THROUGH...CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF MADISON. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE COLD AIR TROUGH ALOFT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF GRAUPEL OR ICE PELLETS GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL
AND DECENT INSTABILITY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
HANG ON AFTER 7 PM...BUT COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET SO LEFT THE EVENING WEATHER DRY.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING IS A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN. 925MB TEMPS OF 0C TO 2C TONIGHT AND AT LEAST A
COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS AROUND
30...COOLEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING IN THE FAVORABLE
LOW SPOTS AS WELL.
SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL FINALLY MOVE ACROSS WI ON SUNDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HINT AT CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER SOUTHEAST WI WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS LONGER. WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT REALLY KICK IN UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...SO TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
DESPITE THE SUNSHINE.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
BREEZY SLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL SUN NT AND MON DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
A LARGE AREA OF POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ON
MON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS POSSIBLY
LEADING TO ISOLD SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE NRN AND WRN CWA.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE CANADIAN LOW WILL STALL OVER SRN
WI MON NT AND TUE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING NWD FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO WRN WI BY LATE TUE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD
N-S UPPER TROUGH THAT IS CROSSING THE ROCKIES. LOW POPS TO
CONTINUE MON NT INTO TUE AM DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION
AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS. RAIN CHANCES TO THEN INCREASE TUE
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE MILD GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE N-S TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT AND
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS WI LATE TUE NT AND WED AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PWS OVER ONE INCH AND GOOD LIFT WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATE WED AFTERNOON
AND WED NT WITH NWLY WINDS AND COLD...DRY AIR ADVECTION INCREASING.
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POLAR JET STREAM SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE
TROUGHS/RIDGES. A WEAK SLY SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN WI EXCEPT IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY END BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. VFR CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD
MORNING...EXPECT MVFR FOG IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS.
VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE TOWARD THE LAKESHORE.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY
EVENING AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A GALE WATCH AT
THIS TIME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR SUN EVE THROUGH TUE
MORNING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY AS OF 07Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS
SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW...AN
UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO...RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
U.S....AND TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. TWO
SHORTWAVES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TROUGH ARE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI
AND IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. THE 850MB/925MB FLOW HAS TURNED NORTHERLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SHORTWAVE. THIS FLOW IS DRIVING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION...NOTED
BY RAP 925MB TEMPS OF 0-2C NOW COMPARED TO 00Z MPX AND GRB RAOBS
WHICH REPORTED 4-5C. ACCOMPANYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS STRATUS
WHICH ONCE AGAIN ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER BRIEFLY
CLEARING OUT LAST EVENING. TO THE NORTH SO FAR THERE HAS NOT BEEN
ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD. HOWEVER...
A SURFACE TROUGH...EVEN COOLER AIR AND MORE STRATUS DOES ACCOMPANY
IT. OFF TO OUR WEST...CLEARING IS TRYING TO MARCH EASTWARD OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOVING THE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AND DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
REGION. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN. THIS IS A PRETTY DRAMATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
GIVEN ITS CURRENT LOCATION OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH THE RAPID
PROGRESSION EASTWARD OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES...FEEL
CONFIDENT THAT THE CLEARING OFF TO OUR WEST WILL WORK INTO AND
PROBABLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WISCONSIN LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN STRATUS THE LONGEST...AIDED BY THAT SHORTWAVE TOO
DROPPING OUT OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD
STAY MOSTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK...BUT THERE IS A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWER
SNEAKING INTO EASTERN TAYLOR AND ADAMS COUNTIES.
HAVING MORE SUN TODAY WILL HELP TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COOLER AIR
THAT HAS ADVECTED IN THIS MORNING. STILL...WITH 925MB TEMPS ONLY
PROGGED BETWEEN 1-3C BY 00Z SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE COMPLETELY DEPENDENT ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. AT 00Z...MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD...FAVORABLE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...
BY 12Z...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. THUS...COLDEST READINGS ARE LIKELY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
WENT NEAR/BELOW GUIDANCE THERE. GIVEN THE COOL READINGS MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHALLOW FOG FORMATION ALONG/EAST OF THE MS
RIVER...BUT WITH THE RAPID PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
HELD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MUCH OF THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. 02.00Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
DIG AND ENVELOPE MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BY 00Z TUESDAY...CAUSING
RIDGING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THERE ARE GOING TO BE 3 PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THIS
TROUGH TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...
1. THE FIRST IS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF BAJA MEXICO WHICH GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW... CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SHORTWAVE CAN PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
DEPENDS ON LOW LEVEL SATURATION. THE 02.00Z NAM DEPICTS A DRY
FORECAST PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY WHEREAS THE 02.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF
ALL DEPICT SOME RAIN FALLING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. THE NAM GENERALLY HAS A BIAS TOWARDS NOT
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION DURING LOW LEVEL SATURATION
ISSUES...THUS HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTIONS AND RAISED
CHANCES.
2. THE SECOND IS A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA ON MONDAY...BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH IT TO NEAR
I-35 IN MN BY 00Z TUESDAY. A BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS OF A WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF PRECIPITATION FORMING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT...ENOUGH TO SPREAD SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST
THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE AREA. HERE TOO LOW LEVEL SATURATION COULD
COME INTO PLAY...BUT FEEL ENOUGH MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY
EXISTS TO INCREASE CHANCES TOWARDS 50.
3. THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY AND MOST SIGNIFICANT COMES OUT OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUE...LIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WED. INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD LINGER RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN THEN LOOKS TO
DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS COMPLETELY EXITED BY NOON...AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND COOLER/DRIER AIR ADVECT IN. HAVE RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE...NOW TOWARDS 80 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOMETHING THAT REQUIRES WATCHING IS IF DYNAMIC COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT
COULD PLAY A ROLE AND TRANSITION SOME OF THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN
OUR NORTHWEST.
OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONCERNS...WINDS ARE ALSO
OF CONCERN...PARTICULARLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. ECMWF/NAM/GFS ALL HAVE 925MB WINDS
PICKING UP TO 35-45 KT BY 00Z MONDAY AND TO 35-50 KT FOR 03Z TO 12Z
MONDAY. THE NAM IS BY THE FAR THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS WITH
WINDS. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND CAN MIX DOWN DURING THE
NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 30
KT GUSTS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONGEST
OVER SOUTHEAST MN.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH FORMS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S.. THUS...AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WE
WILL BE HEADING BACK TO RIDGING AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
APPEARS DRY AND MAINLY BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH WARM ADVECTION TO GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ENTERING PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL KEEP UPPER
PATTERN EVOLVING FAIRLY QUICKLY NEXT 24 HOURS. AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM
LONG LASTING TROUGH FINALLY LOSENS GRIP ONLY HAVE TO MONITOR LOW
CLOUDS /MVFR/ ACROSS WISCONSIN HEADING INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW
CONVECTIVE CUMULUS WEST OF THE RIVER. EXPECTING CLEARING AND VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT.
HAD SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TOWARDS MORNING WITH
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH AND DECOUPLING. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE A
SMALL WINDOW WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY STARTING TO
TIGHTEN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASING. WHILE
COULD DEVELOP SHALLOW INVERSION AND SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG...MIXED
LAYER ABOVE THAT AND STRONGER WINDS SHOULD KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH
TO LIMIT ANY IMPACT AT AIRPORTS.
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHERN U.S. SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE IN RESPONSE. COULD SEE PEAK WINDS ABOVE 30 KTS
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
THREAT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS WINDS ALOFT REALLY INCREASE
GOING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM....AJ
AVIATION.....SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1154 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE LINGERING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS SLOW TO MOVE
EAST. CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARE JUST TO OUR WEST OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING. IT IS TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE OUT THAN WHAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. UNTIL THE TROUGH GETS THROUGH...CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND...ESPECIALLY EAST OF
MADISON. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
THE COLD AIR TROUGH ALOFT. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO
MORE SHOWER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MVFR CIGS ARE LIFTING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST OF MADISON THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN.
EXPECT SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CUMULUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST WI DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SAT NOV 2 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TO CROSS NE WI INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING
WITH CHANNELED VORTICITY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. STILL A CHANCE
FOR LGT SHRA WITH FORCING ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF CHANNELED
VORTICITY...WHICH BISECTS STATE AT 00Z SUNDAY...AND IS OVER EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z SUNDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS TO OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP LIGHT QPF OVER NE HALF OF CWA
THIS MORNING AND THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING PRODUCING SOME OMEGA.
MOIST LAYER ONLY UP TO AROUND 700 MB...BUT WITH MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION SO ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
COLD ADVECTION DROPS 850 MB TEMPS FROM CURRENT 0C TO -2C TO -3C TO
-4C BY 00Z SUNDAY...AND 925MB TEMPS COOLING FROM +2C TO +4C TO +1C
TO +3C WITHIN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WITH CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE
HARD TO CRACK THE MID 40S IN THE EAST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 925 MB
TEMPS AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING
UPPER 40S IN THE WEST.
A SLIGHT UPWARD MODIFICATION OF 850 MB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH
BEGINNINGS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS 850 MB RIDGE AXIS SHIFT OVER
STATE...BUT LITTLE CHANGE AT 925MB. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THINNING
CLOUD COVER AS RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
REGION...WILL SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH
MID 30S RIGHT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN LAKES. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW
SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING. RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
ALLOWS FOR A SUBTLE REBOUND IN 925 TEMPS...WITH SOME WESTERN AREAS
SEEING THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WESTERN UPPER TROUGH MOVES A BIT FURTHER EAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST. STRONG SOUTHWEST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW SETS IN. TIGHT
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTED HIGH AND PLAINS LOW PRESSURE...SO SSE
WINDS ON THE INCREASE. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 50S AS 925 TEMPS RISE
FURTHER THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS. ECMWF A BIT QUICKER ON
QPF INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA. WILL RETAIN THE ALLBLEND POPS WHICH
HAS SLIGHT POPS IN THE EXTREME WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THIS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WET PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. 45-55 KNOT 850
MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET TAKES AIM ON THE CWA. STRONG JET DYNAMICS
WILL BRING SURFACE/850 LOW NORTHEAST INTO WI WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
PRIME PERIOD. ALLBLEND SHOWING LIKELY POPS BUT GIVEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS WILL NUDGE INTO CATEGORICAL.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
TRAILING SURFACE/850 THERMAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...WILL KEEP FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE EAST. FROPA
WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALLOW LOW LEVEL THERMAL POOL TO
SETTLE IN. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOWING THINGS DRYING OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE GEM IS A SMIDGE SLOWER LINGERING PRECIP
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SO PER COLLAB WITH LOT AND GRB WILL
HANG ONTO AN EVENING POP FOR NOW TO BLENDING PURPOSES.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS. MID LEVEL TROUGH
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH ONLY ELONGATED SHEAR VORT ON WESTERN SIDE
OF TROUGH. MODELS DRY WITH LOW LEVEL COLD POOL SHIFTING EAST.
OVERALL CHILLY DAY WITH 925 TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS POTENTIALLY
LOWER THAN CURRENT ALLBLEND GUIDANCE. PERHAPS LOW 40S AT BEST.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING
UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH IN THE PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN 925 TEMPS BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
CELSIUS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SKY COVER TRICKY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AS MVFR DECK
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH REGION AT THE MOMENT...WITH GUIDANCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CIGS LIFTING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLOW CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. CIGS APPROACHING
KMSN ARE MAINLY VFR AND WILL TRY TO KEEP THEM THERE. EASTERN SITES
WILL BE AT MVFR UNTIL 18Z THEN RISE TO VFR...WITH VCSH WITH ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS.
MARINE...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COME UP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LATE THIRD PERIOD/FOURTH
PERIOD TIMING WILL HOLD OFF HEADLINE FOR NOW BUT PUT LIKELY WORDING
IN NSH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY...WITH CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR