Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/30/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 852 PM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
BEGINNING TO KICK MORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THIS AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AS LOBE OF Q-G ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE PASSES BY. PRECIPITATION WAS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF EXPANSION WITH SHOWERS BLOOMING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS DOWN INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THESE WILL
SPREAD NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD PROVIDE
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SHOWERS IN THE 10 PM - 2 AM TIME FRAME.
TEMPERATURES AND LOCAL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
A COMBINATION OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BEFORE
GRADUALLY CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. MOUNTAIN AREAS
WILL LIKELY BE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA PER EXISTING FORECAST
WITH A WIDESPREAD 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL TONIGHT...AND 1-4 INCHES IN
FOOTHILLS HEAVIER TOWARD THE BOULDER/LARIMER COUNTY FOOTHILLS.
CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAINLY NEAR LARIMER COUNTY WHILE BOULDER/DENVER COULD SEE AN INCH
OF SLUSHY SNOW...ON THE TOP END...IF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EXISTING FORECAST SEEN WITH
RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING 04Z-06Z. MAIN THREAT OF ANY SNOW WILL BE
FROM 05Z-08Z/09Z. ANTICIPATE A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH ON
GRASSY SURFACES BUT NO ACCUMULATION ON PAVEMENT. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
1 INCH OF SNOW DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL
BE A TOUGH CALL WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND OTHER VFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO MIXING OF PASSING SHOWERS. MOST OF THE LOWER
STUFF SHOULD BE GONE BY 12Z AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG JET ON ITS EAST SIDE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST AZ NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF CO. ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SEE A NICE SIGNAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AZ. A NICE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND ECHOES IS
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING FROM CENTRAL AZ INTO
SW CO AND THERE IS EVEN SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NOW. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION HEADING INTO WY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION TOWARDS
LAS VEGAS OVERNIGHT. THEN THE ENTIRE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COLORADO
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF SHORTER TERM MODELS
HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE DEVELOPING BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING IT FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THEN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE FIRST SLUG OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
BEGINNING BY ABOUT 01 TO 02Z. THEN THE BAND EXPANDS SOUTHWARD INTO
BOULDER COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY TO A LESSER EXTENT JEFFERSON COUNTY.
AGAIN INITIALLY PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THEN
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW WESTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS.
COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS OF
WESTERN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
HOIST ANY KIND OF ADVISORY. AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT IS NOT VERY GOOD SO AMOUNTS UP TO SEVERAL INCHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY LIMITS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BAND OF
MORE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN. BEST CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE WEST OF I-25 GENERALLY THOUGH
FARTHER EAST AS WE GET INTO LARIMER COUNTY. STILL A TRICKY CALL
WITHOUT ANY REAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF NOTE SO DO NOT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH AMOUNTS BUT DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY STRONG
ENOUGH.

FOR TOMORROW AS NOTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA LATER IN THE
DAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE
FLOW WHICH PUSHES MORE NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW DEVELOPING THERE DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOSER TO ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. OTHERWISE MAYBE
SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS HOWEVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WITH THE CENTER OF
THE TROUGH.

LONG TERM...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG
LIFT...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM ON WEST-NORTHWEST
FACING MTN SLOPES. ON THE PLAINS...ANOTHER AREA OF QG FORCING
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO WARRANTS
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

OVERNIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. MODELS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED
OVER AND ALONG THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS MOUNTAIN WIND COMPONENT AT MTN TOP PEAKS
IN THE 30-45KT THURSDAY MORNING DURING THE PD OF STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DOWNSLOPE SLOPE DRIES OUT PLAINS AIRMASS BUT SAME
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASING. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SWINGING DOWN FROM WESTERN WYOMING AND POSSIBLY REGENERATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME BANDED LIGHT PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE PLAINS...AND MOST LIKELY ENDING
BEFORE MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MARCHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MTN REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND PROVIDING PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
55 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND 45 MPH ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SPEEDS WOULD NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH. SHOULD
SEE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY DECOUPLING FOR THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP OFF IN SFC WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
EVENING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY DIVING IN OVER WYOMING
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ON MONDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE PACKING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS AS MODELS
INDICATE COULD SEE 24-36 HOURS OF WINTRY WEATHER IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS. HENCE THE CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES HAVE GOTTEN CLOSE TO DIA BUT NOW CLOUD
LINE IS SHIFTING SOUTH AGAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A MODEST DENVER CYCLONE. SO CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS BUT FOG SHOULD
STAY AWAY TONIGHT WHILE EVENTUALLY BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES ONTO
THE PLAINS CHANGING TO SNOW LATE...MOST LIKELY FOR ANY SNOW AT
BJC.

HYDROLOGY...MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE FOOTHILLS
ESPECIALLY OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT AND QUITE A BIT LESS IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 340 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

COOL FRONT HAS SLIPPED DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER WITH THE BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE STATE LINE. NE COLO WAS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
THESE CLOUDS WERE JUST MAKING IT INTO EXTREME N AND NE EL PASO COUNTY.
A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT LINES WERE NOTED OVER S EL PASO
AND N PUEBLO COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND
SHIFT LINES (NE WINDS VS SE WINDS).

ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER NEVADA AND WAS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WAS NOTED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM PER WATER VAP IMGY.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDER. SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW TSRA
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS
REASON KEPT VERY SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE BORDER FOR THIS EVENING. I AM
HIGHLY CONFIDENT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT DO NOT KNOW WHICH SIDE
OF THE BORDER IT WILL INITIATE ON. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH A
5% CHANCE OF SVR (HAIL).

2ND CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT. VERY CONFIDENT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH ON HOW FAR WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT BACK TOWARDS THE
MTNS. LATEST HRRR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MTNS. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS LOOKS REALISTIC
AND WILL LIKELY ADD MORE CLOUDS INTO THE NDFD.

OVER THE CONTDVD...MSTR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS...WITH INSIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS.

SOME FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EL PASO COUNTY.

TUESDAY...

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY. SFC BOUNDARY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER WILL LIKELY PUSH
NORTH TOMORROW...BUT HOW FAR N IS THE QUESTION. ATTM...I HAVE THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KCOS DOWN TO KSPD BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. LIKEWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE S TIER
FOR THE FCST AREA...AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT ACROSS EL PASO SO
COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WARM WINDS THIS LOCATION BY MID DAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE KPUB AREA WILL NOT MIX OUT TOMORROW WHILE EL PASO COUNTY
DOES MIX OUT. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AT KCOS MAY BE WARMER THAN KPUB.
IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN CURRENT FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS.

SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 10KFT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY ANY WHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...AND 40 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
/HODANISH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS A UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS
THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.

RECENT LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DOUBLE-BARRELED CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY
LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEVADA
RESPECTIVELY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY WILL ROTATE INTO AN EASTERN
WYOMING/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO LOCATION BY 00Z THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 18Z THURSDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING(I.E. PORTIONS OF PUBLIC ZONES 58/59/60 AND POSSIBLY 66/68
AND 82).

IN ADDITION...EVEN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 58/59/60 AND POSSIBLY 66/68 AND 82 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z/28TH ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. ZONE 60 MAY BE THE MOST PRONE TO RECEIVE WINTER STORM
WARNING TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT...ONCE AGAIN IF THE 12Z/28TH ECMWF
IS CORRECT. WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED
HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED AND AS WE NEAR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

GUSTY WINDS(AROUND 50 KNOTS AT TIMES)...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. FINALLY...WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF
THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

LATEST HRRR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS MAKING IT BACK TO THE
MTNS. LOW CIGS MAY AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z...AND MAY LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS TO TAF BEFORE ROUTINE 00Z
ISSUANCE. KALS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT.

IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AT ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KPUB MAY NOT MIX OUT AND
WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 136 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CA/WESTERN NV EARLY MON MORNING...PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FOR THE 4
CORNERS REGION. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS HAS KEPT TEMPS
SOMEWHAT MILD THIS AM FOR THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 3 AM...30S WERE
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 40S TO AROUND 50 F FOR
THE E PLAINS.

TODAY...OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST ACROSS NV AND THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A SLOWER...MORE NORTHERN TRACK...AND
BENEFICIAL SNOWFALL/PCPN FOR THE CWA LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MINIMAL.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DROP DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND BACK INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH OF THE PALMER DVD EARLY THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MIDDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL
BUTT HEADS WITH INCREASING SW FLOW COMING OFF THE SOUTHERN FRONT
RANGE...SO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE WHEN
IT COMES TO REALIZED MAX TEMPS TODAY. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLDER AIR WILL BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...WHILE THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE NM BORDER MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG THE CONTDVD
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WELL AS SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTN AND INTO THE EVE...SO INTRODUCED
THAT IN THE POP GRIDS.

TONIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW PROGRESSION...WITH
PERSISTENT SW FLOW DRIVING MOISTURE INTO THE SW MTS. PCPN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING FOR THE CONTDVD. AS FOR THE
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE THE LINGERING CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. ALSO...AS THE SW SFC WINDS DECOUPLE
THE EASTERLY PUSH OF THE LLVL COLD AIR WILL WIN OUT AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE E MTS. THIS MAY MAKE FOR A COLD NIGHT ALL ALONG THE I25
CORRIDOR WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

TUE MORNING THE UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVR FAR NERN
NV...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM SHOWS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PCPN OVR THE CONTDVD...WHILE THE GFS HAS INCREASING
POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS.  AT THE SFC OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS...STRATUS IS EXPECTED THRU ABOUT MIDMORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND FROM PUEBLO EASTWARD. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LIGHT
DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR IN AREAS COVERED BY THE STRATUS.  TUE AFTERNOON
THE NAM SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPR LOW FROM SERN ID TO EAST CENTRAL
NV...WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE UPR LOW CENTER INTO FAR WRN WY.  IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE ONLY AREA THAT WL SEE PCPN IN THE AFTERNOON HRS
IS THE CONTDVD...ALTHOUGH WL LEAVE SOME ISOLD POPS OVR THE ERN MTS.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOWER HYR PCPN AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONTDVD THAN
THE NAM.  HIGH TEMPS TUE OVR THE SERN PLAINS WL BE A BIT CHALLENGING
AS THEY ARE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY WL LIE.  IT DOES
LOOK LIKE LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND THE SERN FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLY BACA
COUNTY WL HAVE BREEZY S TO SW WINDS AND WARMER TEMPS THAN THE REST
OF THE SERN PLAINS.  THE MTS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL ALSO HAVE SOME
WINDY CONDITIONS.  AT THIS TIME...HUMIDITIES LOOK TOO HIGH TO WORRY
ABOUT FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW WARM IT
GETS ON TUE...CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA OVR THE
SRN I-25 CORRIDOR IN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE NIGHT THE UPR LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD.  WL CONTINUE BEST PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE
CONTDVD...WITH LITTLE ELSEWHERE.  ONCE AGAIN A LOW STRATUS DECK IS
EXPECTED MAINLY FROM THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES AND
NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING.

WED THE MODELS MOVE THE UPR LOW CENTER INTO SD...AND THEN KEEP IT
MOVING EASTWARD THRU WED NIGHT.  THIS WL DRAG THE UPR TROF ACRS THE
FORECAST AREA.  MUCH OF THE AREA STILL LOOKS MAINLY DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE CONTDVD ON WED.  IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
PALMER DVD AND PIKES PEAK AND TELLER COUNTY AREA COULD SEE SOME PCPN
WED.

THU THE UPR TROF WL BE EAST OF THE AREA...WITH W TO NW FLOW ALOFT
OVR THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVR THE
CENTRAL CO MTS...CONTINUING INTO THU NIGHT.  ON FRI AND UPR RIDGE
BUILDS OVR THE GREAT BASIN AND THEN MOVES OVR CO FOR SAT...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL.  SUN A NEW UPR
TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND PUSH THE
UPR RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE WEATHER WL STILL BE DRY
WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

LATEST HRRR IS BECOMING MORE AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
FOR KCOS AND KPUB FOR LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WILL LET
ANOTHER RUN COME IN...BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME LOW CIGS INTO
KCOS AND KPUB IN TAF AMMENDMENTS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 1229 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST REGION TODAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FA. MAINLY MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS BUT SOME CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD LIFT ARE HELPING TO GENERATE
A FEW SHOWERS. DECIDED TO LOWER POPS A BIT FROM THE 60-80 PERCENT
IN THE SOUTH AND EAST AND WILL GO MAINLY 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
THE ENTIRE FA. ALSO...WITH THE LOWER POPS DECIDED TO INCREASE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE
NORTHEAST PART TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST PART INCLUDING
THE CSRA.

TONIGHT...
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE GONE TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT ALLOWING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AS TROUGH OUT WEST DEEPENS.
NICE INDIAN SUMMER LIKE WEATHER FOR AUTUMN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS EJECTED EASTWARD THURSDAY AND PUSHES UPPER
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85 JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO BY FRIDAY. WARMER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT
MOVES IN.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FEATURES COOLER...NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST BY SUNDAY WHILE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD PROVIDING BENIGN RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH A
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN BELOW
A HALF INCH.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S TO AROUND 70
ON SATURDAY THEN FALL INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLE SOME UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 10K FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING.  A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AGS/DNL HAVE ALREADY REPORTED LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR HI RES MODEL INDICATING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING MAINLY SW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 825 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS WELL DEFINED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POPS TODAY. MODELS DIFFERED GREATLY ON POPS WITH LOW VALUES AS
LOW AS 10 PERCENT AND HIGH VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT. DECIDED
ION 20-30 PERCENT NORTH AND 80-90 PERCENT SOUTH. RUC MODEL SHOWS
UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING REGION UNTIL AROUND 21Z WHEN IT MOVES
TO THE EAST. THE SPRINKLES AND PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY CONTINUE
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY. BASED ON THE H85 WESTERLY FLOW WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE WE BELIEVE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. THE COOLER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR BETTER BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING. THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY DISPLAYING
RIDGING WITH DRY WEATHER. THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY AND WILL EJECT A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE EAST AS THE
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS SHIFT THE FRONT TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 10K FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING.  A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AGS/DNL HAVE ALREADY REPORTED LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR HI RES MODEL INDICATING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING MAINLY SW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 631 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS WELL DEFINED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WAS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS OVER PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW
POPS TODAY. ALL OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS SUPPORT POPS OF 20 PERCENT
OR LESS. THESE POPS AGREE WITH THE SREF GUIDANCE EXCEPT IT HAS
POPS NEAR 50 PERCENT OVER PART OF THE AREA. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW MIXED RESULTS WITH THE SPC WRF DISPLAYING LITTLE
COVERAGE AND HRRR SHOWING CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE AROUND 500 PM.
BASED ON THE H85 WESTERLY FLOW WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WE BELIEVE
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE AREA WILL NOT
HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN. FORECASTED POPS OF GENERALLY 20 TO 50
PERCENT. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE SPRINKLES
AT TIMES. THE COOLER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR BETTER BECAUSE
OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUING. THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE DRY PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY DISPLAYING
RIDGING WITH DRY WEATHER. THE MODELS SHOW THE STRONG UPPER LOW
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY AND WILL EJECT A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH TO THE EAST AS THE
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
THURSDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING A STRONG H85
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS SHIFT THE FRONT TO THE EAST AND OFFSHORE
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE AL/GA BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. CIGS MAY DIP BELOW 10K FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING.  A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AGS/DNL HAVE ALREADY REPORTED LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HRRR HI RES MODEL INDICATING SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS MORNING
BECOMING MAINLY SW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 1011 AM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE PICS SHOWING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
WESTERN NV WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW
ALONG THE NV/UT BORDER AT 15Z. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOW ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH TOWARD THE ID/NV
BORDER. STEADIER PRECIPITATION NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN HARNEY...MALHEUR AND OWYHEE COUNTY
TODAY WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 4K FEET MSL. BURNS WILL
LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THIS
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION FROM SE
TO NW DURING THE DAY BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE WINDS IN LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT DON/T MIX OUT WILL
BE DRIVEN BY SURFACE GRADIENT AND REMAIN OUT OF THE W/NW...WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TAP INTO THE E/NE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION. LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND HRRR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
TREASURE VALLEY WHICH KEEP A NW WIND THROUGH THE DAY. THE NAM
SEEMS TOO QUICK TO MIX THE LOWER VALLEY OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION AND LOW- LEVEL STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED.
THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS WITH DIRECTIONAL
SHIFTS LIKELY TIED TO PRECIPITATION. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL NEED TO WATCH BAKER COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MVFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 03Z
TUES...KBOI IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
AFTER. MOUNTAINS OBSCURED. SNOW LEVELS NEAR SURFACE AT KBNO AND
AROUND 8000 FEET MSL AT KBOI. LIGHT TO MOD SFC WINDS WITH VARIED
DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION FORECAST...GENERALLY
E/SE SFC  WINDS SE OF KMUO AND W/NW SFC WINDS WEST OF KBOI. GUSTY
TO 40KT AROUND KBKE. WINDS ALOFT SE 15-25KT WITH AREAS OF 45KT
BECOMING VARIABLE 5-15KT AFTER 12Z TUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY...THEN HEAD E-NE AND REACH WESTERN WYOMING
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
TREASURE VALLEY AND SOUTH TO THE NEVADA BORDER THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE W-NW AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO SE OREGON
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO FAR...PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...
LESS THAN A TENTH /0.10/ OF AN INCH. AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA...THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AROUND THE LOW
CENTER...WHICH INCLUDE THE OWYHEES AND SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS IN SW
IDAHO...AND SOUTHERN MALHEUR/SOUTHERN HARNEY COUNTIES IN SE OREGON.
THESE AREAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE ID/NV BORDER. ON TUESDAY...THE LOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN MOST AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS SW IDAHO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF BOISE. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO A QUARTER
/0.25/ OF AN INCH IN THE TREASURE/WESTERN MAGIC VALLEYS...UP TO A
HALF INCH IN THE MTNS TO THE NORTH...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN HARNEY/MALHEUR COUNTIES...THE OWYHEES... AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL
TO THE MOUNTAINS...EXCEPT IN HARNEY COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE UP TO
AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET. A SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY
EAST WINDS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF IT AND GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING TO IT/S WEST. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
TODAY WITH MORE COOLING EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. EXPECT FEWER CLOUDS
AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. IMPROVED MODEL AGREEMENT LENDS TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT NOTABLE PACIFIC SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....MT







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

Observing the band of stratus and dense advection fog lifting
northward across southern Kansas as warm and moist air encounters
the cooler airmass across east central areas. Latest few runs from
the HRRR as well as RAP soundings suggest weak southerly flow to
continue pulling the stratus deck northward along with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile. Therefore have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for portions of east central Kansas. As we near
sunrise, question as to if areas along the interstate 70 corridor
will see any mixing begin before stratus moves in. If we are able
to increase low level winds, dense fog will not be of concern.
Will continue to monitor trends for possible expansion northward
later this morning.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

Currently monitoring the next strong upper shortwave trough as it
rotates east southeast across northern California and northern
Nevada early this morning. Embedded perturbations within the main
system were noted ejecting eastward across the Intermountain west
while an area of subsidence over northeast Kansas was keeping skies
mostly clear.  Surface observations note the low pressure center
across southeast Colorado as an inverted trough stretched across
Kansas and Missouri. Southerly winds over much of Kansas into
Oklahoma were pulling dewpoint temperatures in the lower and
middle 50s northward. Fog developing over Oklahoma should try to
make its way into southern Kansas later this morning. Low levels
have managed to stay mixed with temperature dewpoint spreads too large
to warrant widespread fog developing. Best chances for patchy fog
may be possible briefly near sunrise generally south of the Kansas
Turnpike.

The inverted trough deepens Monday afternoon as dewpoints increase
into the 50s across central and east central Kansas behind a warm
front positioned from west central Kansas to northwest Missouri.
Light winds veer to the south and increase through the low levels,
providing warm air advecting temps into the upper 60s and low 70s.
Short term guidance and analysis suggest a strong capping inversion
in place along with lack of strong forcing in the mid levels which
should keep much of the forecast dry for most of the afternoon. By
late afternoon into early evening, focus then turns west of the area
as mid level moisture and instability increases. Latest guidance
from the 4 km WRF and NAM suggest scattered convection may develop
after 5 PM across north central areas in vicinity of the warm front.
Surface based CAPE values are meager around 300 J/KG, however strong
veering of the winds throughout the column with effective shear up
to 6 km in the 50 kt range suggest if a surface based storm were
able to develop, supercell structures would be possible with large
hail and localized damaging winds being the primary concern.
Boundary layer should quickly stabilize towards sunset as widespread
showers and thunderstorms become more rooted in the mid levels. A
strong and veering low level jet overnight Monday along with a mid
level vort max in place should provide ample support for showers and
thunderstorms to spread eastward across the entire area through the
overnight hours. Mixed layer cape shifts east up to 1000 J/kg with
effective shear over 50 kts suggest isolated severe hail may
continue to be a threat for the area. Rainfall amounts around an
inch are possible especially across east central and northeast
areas. Within the warm sector, overcast skies, and scattered
convection low temperatures are expected to be much warmer in the
lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

With the closed upper low now over the west coast and sampled
better, the models seem to be converging on the timing of the
system. And interestingly it seems as though the trend has been
towards the slightly faster solution of the GFS. Continued the
trend of the prev forecast with POPs diminishing Tuesday
afternoon. While there may be some precip ongoing early Tuesday,
large scale forcing for continued precip doesn`t appear to be
there. So with the weakening low level jet think a lull in precip
is possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The next
shortwave is progged to lift out from the base of the upper low on
Wednesday with the low itself moving across the state Wednesday
night. There should be more than enough moisture and with little
inhibition to convection so think showers and thunderstorms are
likely to be widespread once again. There continues to be a chance
that some of the storms Wednesday could become severe as deep
layer shear remains favorable for supercell storms. The main
uncertainty is whether there will be enough insolation to
destabilize the boundary layer and whether there will be a whole
bunch of storm interactions such that updrafts have a hard time
organizing into supercells. Nevertheless it bares watching. With
the strong low level moisture advection anticipated, temps should
be very mild for late October with highs around 70 and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. The main adjustment to the forecast was to
account for the faster progression of the front on Thursday, which
most guidance brings through eastern KS by the mid morning hours.
With this in mind the forecast reflects diminishing POPs through
the morning with cooler minimum temps Thursday morning.

Friday through Sunday continues to look dry as the cold front
pushes all of the moisture east. Models show a wave within the
northwest flow for Friday, but there isn`t much moisture for it to
work with. The dry northwest flow is expected to persist through
Saturday before the next upper level shortwave trough moves
inland over the west coast causing pressure falls along the lee of
the Rockies and a southerly wind to return to the forecast area.
Temps Friday and Saturday still look to be seasonable before a
modest warm up occurs with increasing warm air advection from the
south on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

For the 18z TAFs, a scattered to broken stratus deck was lifting
northward toward the I-70 corridor this morning. As a result, cig
conditions may periodically drop down to IFR this afternoon. However
this deck should lift by mid to late afternoon with scattered MVFR
cigs possible. By this evening, the potential for rain and scattered
thunderstorms increases with more widespread precipitation expected
during the overnight hours through Tuesday morning. Cigs/vis should
initially drop down to MVFR but model guidance and several model
soundings show conditions quickly dropping IFR and possibly near
LIFR early Tuesday morning and persisting through the end of the
period. There is still some uncertainty though with the exact timing
of this change in categories. Through the period winds will
generally be out of the southeast at around 10kts or less, however
cannot rule out some occasional stronger winds with the
thunderstorms.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Hennecke







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 707 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 559 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

Observing the band of stratus and dense advection fog lifting
northward across southern Kansas as warm and moist air encounters
the cooler airmass across east central areas. Latest few runs from
the HRRR as well as RAP soundings suggest weak southerly flow to
continue pulling the stratus deck northward along with
visibilities at or below 1/4 mile. Therefore have issued a Dense
Fog Advisory for portions of east central Kansas. As we near
sunrise, question as to if areas along the interstate 70 corridor
will see any mixing begin before stratus moves in. If we are able
to increase low level winds, dense fog will not be of concern.
Will continue to monitor trends for possible expansion northward
later this morning.

&&

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

Currently monitoring the next strong upper shortwave trough as it
rotates east southeast across northern California and northern
Nevada early this morning. Embedded perturbations within the main
system were noted ejecting eastward across the Intermountain west
while an area of subsidence over northeast Kansas was keeping skies
mostly clear.  Surface observations note the low pressure center
across southeast Colorado as an inverted trough stretched across
Kansas and Missouri. Southerly winds over much of Kansas into
Oklahoma were pulling dewpoint temperatures in the lower and
middle 50s northward. Fog developing over Oklahoma should try to
make its way into southern Kansas later this morning. Low levels
have managed to stay mixed with temperature dewpoint spreads too large
to warrant widespread fog developing. Best chances for patchy fog
may be possible briefly near sunrise generally south of the Kansas
Turnpike.

The inverted trough deepens Monday afternoon as dewpoints increase
into the 50s across central and east central Kansas behind a warm
front positioned from west central Kansas to northwest Missouri.
Light winds veer to the south and increase through the low levels,
providing warm air advecting temps into the upper 60s and low 70s.
Short term guidance and analysis suggest a strong capping inversion
in place along with lack of strong forcing in the mid levels which
should keep much of the forecast dry for most of the afternoon. By
late afternoon into early evening, focus then turns west of the area
as mid level moisture and instability increases. Latest guidance
from the 4 km WRF and NAM suggest scattered convection may develop
after 5 PM across north central areas in vicinity of the warm front.
Surface based CAPE values are meager around 300 J/KG, however strong
veering of the winds throughout the column with effective shear up
to 6 km in the 50 kt range suggest if a surface based storm were
able to develop, supercell structures would be possible with large
hail and localized damaging winds being the primary concern.
Boundary layer should quickly stabilize towards sunset as widespread
showers and thunderstorms become more rooted in the mid levels. A
strong and veering low level jet overnight Monday along with a mid
level vort max in place should provide ample support for showers and
thunderstorms to spread eastward across the entire area through the
overnight hours. Mixed layer cape shifts east up to 1000 J/kg with
effective shear over 50 kts suggest isolated severe hail may
continue to be a threat for the area. Rainfall amounts around an
inch are possible especially across east central and northeast
areas. Within the warm sector, overcast skies, and scattered
convection low temperatures are expected to be much warmer in the
lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

With the closed upper low now over the west coast and sampled
better, the models seem to be converging on the timing of the
system. And interestingly it seems as though the trend has been
towards the slightly faster solution of the GFS. Continued the
trend of the prev forecast with POPs diminishing Tuesday
afternoon. While there may be some precip ongoing early Tuesday,
large scale forcing for continued precip doesn`t appear to be
there. So with the weakening low level jet think a lull in precip
is possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The next
shortwave is progged to lift out from the base of the upper low on
Wednesday with the low itself moving across the state Wednesday
night. There should be more than enough moisture and with little
inhibition to convection so think showers and thunderstorms are
likely to be widespread once again. There continues to be a chance
that some of the storms Wednesday could become severe as deep
layer shear remains favorable for supercell storms. The main
uncertainty is whether there will be enough insolation to
destabilize the boundary layer and whether there will be a whole
bunch of storm interactions such that updrafts have a hard time
organizing into supercells. Nevertheless it bares watching. With
the strong low level moisture advection anticipated, temps should
be very mild for late October with highs around 70 and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. The main adjustment to the forecast was to
account for the faster progression of the front on Thursday, which
most guidance brings through eastern KS by the mid morning hours.
With this in mind the forecast reflects diminishing POPs through
the morning with cooler minimum temps Thursday morning.

Friday through Sunday continues to look dry as the cold front
pushes all of the moisture east. Models show a wave within the
northwest flow for Friday, but there isn`t much moisture for it to
work with. The dry northwest flow is expected to persist through
Saturday before the next upper level shortwave trough moves
inland over the west coast causing pressure falls along the lee of
the Rockies and a southerly wind to return to the forecast area.
Temps Friday and Saturday still look to be seasonable before a
modest warm up occurs with increasing warm air advection from the
south on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013

Satellite continues to show band of LIFR stratus lifting northward
towards the terminals. The stratus is timed to reach KTOP/KFOE aft
14z and KMHK aft 15z. Low level winds will gradually mix out the
low stratus to VFR this afternoon as southeast winds increase at or
above 10 kts sustained. Scattered TSRA is expected to move into
the sites aft 03Z at KMHK and 04Z at KTOP/KFOE. Left VFR at this
time however lower cigs and visibilities are possible depending
on intensity of thunderstorm.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bowen
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Bowen







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1157 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY
AND LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WITH CLEAR CALM
CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE AIR TO QUICKLY COOL THIS EVENING. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STRAY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT.

MAJOR CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE
CAW AND TEMPERATURES.

19Z VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND METARS SHOWED THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE N AND W. FURTHER S AND E, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE LATEST 19Z LAPS/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 850 MBS W/DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP BY 03Z LEADING TO CLEARING
AND WINDS DECOUPLING. A S/WV SHOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS FCST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE IS FROM
700-500MBS AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL AID IN CAPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY
06Z WHILE TEMPERATURES FURTHER N AND W WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 MPH.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FCST TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE N AND W WHILE LOW TO MID 20S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION. THE COAST WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN W/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.

IN REGARDS TO THE S/WV MENTIONED ABV, THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
INDICATED SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING W/SOME LIGHT PRECIP EDGING
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM SHOWS THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. THE 12Z UA DID SHOW A 30-35KT JETLET AT 700MBS
ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ADDED 20-30% FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE TO LOW ON THIS AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WX ELEMENT AS SHOWERS W/THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ARRIVING NEAR OR AFTER 12Z W/TEMPERATURES WARMING. DUE TO
DEWPOINTS BEING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME BRIEF FLAKES OR EVEN SLEET OCCURS AT THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIP. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TONIGHT.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE FCST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N AND W AND MID TO
UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN INTO QUEBEC
PROVINCE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE NAM12..GFS40..SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR
TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW BLEND. FOR WINDS HAVE USED
THE MOSG25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THEN CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED
THE SUPPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST WIND GUSTS
USING 150 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KCAR/KFVE AND KPQI THIS EVENING AND THEN VFR. FROM KHUL TO
KBHB, IT LOOKS LIKE VFR RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM`S LEAD USING A BLEND
OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOW AN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE S/WV
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
3 FT USING THE SWAN GUIDANCE TO INITIALIZE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12
     GFS40 AND ECMWF OUT TO 1200Z FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
SUPPER BLEND WINDS. WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT
BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. FOR WIND
GUST SPEED HAVE USED 110 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT COMBINED SEAS ...MOSTLY COMPOSED OF LOCAL WIND WAVE TO
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FROM
GULF OF MAINE AND EXTENDS TO SOUTH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM
TO BUILD TO 15 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1012 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY
AND LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 2210L: THIN HIGH CLDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FA AS
EXPECTED. CURRENT FCST ON TRACK W/ NO CHANGES ATTM...

UPDATE 1815L: SC DECK ACROSS THE N HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ATTM AS
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ COLD AND DRY AIR CONTS TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT HYR CLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATER TNGT INTO WED W/ THICKEST CLDS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
OUR FA. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY STILL BE ENUF
TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR WET FLAKES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WED AM. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND HRLY TEMPS TO
BRING MORE IN LINE W/ CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDS...

MAJOR CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE
CAW AND TEMPERATURES.

19Z VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND METARS SHOWED THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE N AND W. FURTHER S AND E, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE LATEST 19Z LAPS/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 850 MBS W/DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP BY 03Z LEADING TO CLEARING
AND WINDS DECOUPLING. A S/WV SHOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS FCST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE IS FROM
700-500MBS AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL AID IN CAPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY
06Z WHILE TEMPERATURES FURTHER N AND W WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 MPH.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FCST TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE N AND W WHILE LOW TO MID 20S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION. THE COAST WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN W/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.

IN REGARDS TO THE S/WV MENTIONED ABV, THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
INDICATED SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING W/SOME LIGHT PRECIP EDGING
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM SHOWS THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. THE 12Z UA DID SHOW A 30-35KT JETLET AT 700MBS
ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ADDED 20-30% FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE TO LOW ON THIS AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WX ELEMENT AS SHOWERS W/THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ARRIVING NEAR OR AFTER 12Z W/TEMPERATURES WARMING. DUE TO
DEWPOINTS BEING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME BRIEF FLAKES OR EVEN SLEET OCCURS AT THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIP. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TONIGHT.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE FCST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N AND W AND MID TO
UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN INTO QUEBEC
PROVINCE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE NAM12..GFS40..SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR
TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW BLEND. FOR WINDS HAVE USED
THE MOSG25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THEN CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED
THE SUPPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST WIND GUSTS
USING 150 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KCAR/KFVE AND KPQI THIS EVENING AND THEN VFR. FROM KHUL TO
KBHB, IT LOOKS LIKE VFR RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM`S LEAD USING A BLEND
OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOW AN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE S/WV
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
3 FT USING THE SWAN GUIDANCE TO INITIALIZE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12
     GFS40 AND ECMWF OUT TO 1200Z FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
SUPPER BLEND WINDS. WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT
BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. FOR WIND
GUST SPEED HAVE USED 110 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT COMBINED SEAS ...MOSTLY COMPOSED OF LOCAL WIND WAVE TO
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FROM
GULF OF MAINE AND EXTENDS TO SOUTH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM
TO BUILD TO 15 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 723 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY
AND LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 1815L: SC DECK ACROSS THE N HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ATTM AS
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES W/ COLD AND DRY AIR CONTS TO BUILD OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT HYR CLDS TO THE W OF THE AREA TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION LATER TNGT INTO WED W/ THICKEST CLDS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
OUR FA. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY STILL BE ENUF
TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR WET FLAKES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WED AM. FOR NOW...ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND HRLY TEMPS TO
BRING MORE IN LINE W/ CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDS...

MAJOR CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE
CAW AND TEMPERATURES.

19Z VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND METARS SHOWED THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE N AND W. FURTHER S AND E, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE LATEST 19Z LAPS/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 850 MBS W/DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP BY 03Z LEADING TO CLEARING
AND WINDS DECOUPLING. A S/WV SHOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS FCST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE IS FROM
700-500MBS AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL AID IN CAPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY
06Z WHILE TEMPERATURES FURTHER N AND W WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 MPH.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FCST TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE N AND W WHILE LOW TO MID 20S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION. THE COAST WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN W/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.

IN REGARDS TO THE S/WV MENTIONED ABV, THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
INDICATED SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING W/SOME LIGHT PRECIP EDGING
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM SHOWS THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. THE 12Z UA DID SHOW A 30-35KT JETLET AT 700MBS
ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ADDED 20-30% FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE TO LOW ON THIS AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WX ELEMENT AS SHOWERS W/THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ARRIVING NEAR OR AFTER 12Z W/TEMPERATURES WARMING. DUE TO
DEWPOINTS BEING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME BRIEF FLAKES OR EVEN SLEET OCCURS AT THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIP. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TONIGHT.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE FCST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N AND W AND MID TO
UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN INTO QUEBEC
PROVINCE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE NAM12..GFS40..SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR
TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW BLEND. FOR WINDS HAVE USED
THE MOSG25.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THEN CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED
THE SUPPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST WIND GUSTS
USING 150 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KCAR/KFVE AND KPQI THIS EVENING AND THEN VFR. FROM KHUL TO
KBHB, IT LOOKS LIKE VFR RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM`S LEAD USING A BLEND
OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOW AN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE S/WV
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
3 FT USING THE SWAN GUIDANCE TO INITIALIZE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12
     GFS40 AND ECMWF OUT TO 1200Z FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
SUPPER BLEND WINDS. WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT
BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. FOR WIND
GUST SPEED HAVE USED 110 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT COMBINED SEAS ...MOSTLY COMPOSED OF LOCAL WIND WAVE TO
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FROM
GULF OF MAINE AND EXTENDS TO SOUTH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM
TO BUILD TO 15 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/MIGNONE





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 140 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 140KT H3 JET MAX SLIDING ESEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THE NW
FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
ATTENDANT COLD FNT PUSHED THRU UPR MI LAST EVNG ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
-SHRASN MAINLY OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND WAS FOLLOWED BY SOME
GUSTY N WINDS THAT PEAKED AS HI AS 41 KT AT THE STANNARD ROCK
LIGHTHOUSE IN SCENTRAL LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE PCPN HAS
DIMINISHED FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR...SOME LES AIDED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO -11C IS OCCURRING NEAR LK
SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE LLVL NNE FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES
IN SASKATCHEWAN THE DEPARTING COLD FNT IS PRESENTING A SHARPER
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT EVEN HERE THE LES IS RATHER LIGHT...WITH
CONSIDERABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE DROPPING THE INVRN
BASE TOWARD 4K FT AND SHARPENING ACYC LLVL FLOW WEAKENING THE NEAR
SFC CNVGC. THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY
MOIST EITHER...WITH SFC DEWPT AT CKC IN THE MN ARROWHEAD DOWN TO 12F
AT 05Z AND HAS RESULTED IN CLRG JUST UPWIND OF THE LK. 00Z INL/YPL
RAOBS ALSO SHOW THIS DRYNESS. BUT MORE SC LINGERS FARTHER TO THE N
INTO ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA/NW MN. THERE IS PARTIAL CLRG OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO W THRU LK WINNIPEG CLOSER TO THE SFC HI CENTER AND WHERE THE
00Z RAOB FM THE PAS MANITOBA SHOWS INVRN BASE BLO H9...BUT EVEN HERE
BKN SC ARE PRESENT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LES AND LO CLD TRENDS.

TODAY...UNDER CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES NOW CENTERED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT OVER NW MN BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG TO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
FLATTER PRES GRADIENT. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHSN IN LLVL N-NE FLOW WL IMPACT THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL
AND THE FAR W FM ONTONAGON TO IWD...WHERE MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON
IS INDICATED TO HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT. GOING POPS APPEAR TO HAVE
THESE TRENDS IN HAND. BUT THE SHARP LLVL ACYC FLOW/LO INVRN BASE
BTWN 3-4K FT/PRESENCE OF DGZ ABV THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LK MOISTENED
LYR WL LIKELY HOLD DOWN SN ACCUMS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO
DESPITE FVRBL LK WATER-INVRN BASE DELTA T ARND 17C. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CLRG IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LK RIGHT NOW...SUSPECT THE
BKN-OVC SC A BIT FARTHER TO THE N-NW AND SUBSTANTIAL OVERWATER
INSTABILITY ARE SIGNS THE LO CLDS WL BE QUITE RESILIENT. SO TENDED
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

TNGT...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ALMOST RIGHT OVER UPR
MI BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THIS TREND WOULD SUG THE SC WL DSPT AND LO
TEMPS WL PLUNGE UNDER PWAT FALLING BLO 0.25 INCH/LGT WINDS...
CONCERNED THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LO CLD OBSVD THIS MRNG UPSTREAM
TO THE HI CENTER THAT COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH LO TEMPS FCST. SOME HI
CLDS MAY ALSO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LLVL FLOW BACKING MORE
NW WITHIN LLVL THERMAL TROF...SUSPECT THE SC WL BE MOST TENACIOUS E
OF MQT. MAINTAINED FLAVOR OF PREVIOUS FCST SHOWING THE LOWEST TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AND SCENTRAL INTO THE TEENS...BUT TENDED TO
RAISE THE FCST MINS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY ON CLRG
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS. UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY
SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHILE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES BUT ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF POSITION
OF PLAINS UPPER LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIT MORE DIFFERENCE BY
THURSDAY...BUT EVEN HERE THERE IS DECENT MODEL CLUSTERING OF
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SFC LOW 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
MORE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAINLY
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EXITS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE MOSTLY RESULTS IN A RAIN EVENT FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH SNOW
RE-ENTERING THE PICTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033MB WILL BE CENTERED VERY NEAR
UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE AN INITIAL WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS AT THE SFC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...HINT IS THERE FOR A WHILE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN INSTIGATOR FOR THE
PRECIP IS SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO IN NW FLOW ON
WESTERN EDGE OF RETREATING TROUGHING. MOST OF LARGER SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT FM SHORTWAVE /H7-H5 AND H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ STAYS
NORTH OF CWA. HOWEVER...INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEAMS UP WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT FM JET STREAK SLIDING EAST TOWARD
QUEBEC TO GENERATE SOME MID-LEVEL LIFT. LEFTOVER ISSUE IS WHETHER
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR OWING TO THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ERODED ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SFC. /THIS IS OF COURSE ASSUMING
THAT LOW CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING/. SINCE THE DRYING WILL NOT BE RE-INFORCED BY DRY
ADVECTION...THINK MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT EVENTUALLY ALLOWS LGT
PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO SFC. SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE MAINLY SNOW FOR PTYPE. ONLY SCNTRL WITH LGT SE WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN MAY SEE RAIN BE MAIN PTYPE.

WHERE SNOW OCCURS AS PTYPE...THERE IS A LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MINOR
ACCUMS AS...DESPITE IT HAPPENING IN THE AFTN/EVENING...BANDED SNOW
COULD FALL AT AN OKAY CLIP WITH STRONGER FORCING IN MID-LEVELS. NAM
WHICH IS GRANTED THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND DURATION OF
HEAVIER QPF SHOWS SNOW ACCUMS OVER 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST CWA 18Z
TUE THROUGH 06Z WED. WILL NOT GO THIS BULLISH YET AS THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT WILL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGHER CHANCE RANGE. ECMWF/GEM-NH
AND UKMET ALSO GENERATING QPF OVR UPR MICHIGAN BUT NOT NEAR AS HEAVY
AS NAM. TIMING AND EXTENT OF SNOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AWARE OF AS IT
COULD IMPACT EVENING TRAVEL OVER SOUTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN AND MAYBE
INTO CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT LGT PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY LATER EVENING AS
MAIN JET STREAK MOVES FARTHER EAST AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY WEAK WINDS AS SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERS. COULD SEE SOME FOG WITH
THIS SETUP IF MOISTURE THINS OUT MORE THAN SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS. AT
THE LEAST SOME STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF WARM
FRONT...WHICH BASED ON SFC WINDS/DWPNT GRADIENT...COULD BE AS FAR
NORTH AS CNTRL WISCONSIN BY 00Z THURSDAY. SE WINDS MAY HOLD IN
STRATUS MOST OF THE DAY OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
THANKS TO LESS MIXING DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ELSEWHERE...WOULD EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING PLAINS SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MAIN QUESTION FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WHETHER PRECIP MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THE DAY. GFS WOULD
SUGGEST SO...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET KEEP QPF SOUTH OF CWA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN GFS HAS SHOWN A TREND TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER HOLDING...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING AND THAT PROBABLY WORKS FOR NOW...AT LEAST UNTIL MORE
SIGNAL SHOWS UP THAT WARM FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER NORTH.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE FM THAT PERSISTING LOW CLOUD
DECK AND UPSLOPE FLOW. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER THIS JUST FINE FOR NOW.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF INTO LOWER 40S WITH PERSISTING
CLOUDS.

RAIN IS STILL ON FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PLAINS UPPER TROUGH HEADS
EAST AND PROPELS DEEPENING SFC LOW TOWARD UPR LAKES...VCNTY OF
NORTHERN WI OR UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH MSLP SOMEWHERE NEAR
990MB. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE OF 140+ KT JET STREAK
ROARING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PWATS OVER 1 INCH OR
OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO SPREAD A SWATH OF
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL CWA. STILL SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
THE GFS/GEM-NH QUICKER IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS
SLOWER BY ABOUT 6 HRS. KEPT A BROADBRUSHED 80 PCT CHANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO TIMING CAN BE MADE LATER ON. DRY
SLOT LIKELY BECOMES A FACTOR INTO DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...YET
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF ENHANCED RAIN FROM DEFORMATION
INDICATED BY H7-H5/H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST POPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AND H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE 50S. BASED ON LOCATION OF DRY SLOT AND H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...TSRA PROBABLY END UP FIRING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
CWA...SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BE A FACTOR
SOMETIME ALONG THE WAY AS WELL GIVEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WIND FIELDS FORECAST IN THE VCNTY OF
THE LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR ADVY GUSTS WOULD BE ALONG LK MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR ONCE
LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A COUPLE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE MEAN TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVES AND/OR RE-INFORCING COLD
FRONTS SLIDE THROUGH. COLDER AIR CHARGES BACK IN ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES FM ECMWF/GFS SHOULD START TO
SEE SNOW MIXING IN ON FRIDAY OVER AT LEAST WEST HALF INTERIOR.
AIRMASS CHILL INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS SIMILAR TO RECENT STRETCH OF
COOLER TEMPS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -6C BUT NOT QUITE TO -12C.
SINCE THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND AS
WELL...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE FAVORED AT
TIMES FOR THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

HIGH-END MVFR TO LOW-END VFR CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING ACROSS UPPER
MI UNDER A WEAK INVERSION AROUND 4KFT. BOTH IWD AND SAW ARE ON THE
EDGE OF BKN TO OVC CLOUDS AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
A BREAK IN OVC CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR IN CMX...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-END VFR CLOUDS COULD
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF CLOUD-COVER EVOLUTION
AT ALL SITES IS LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVOLUTED CLOUD PATTERN AND
GENERALLY STAGNANT AIR MASS. HOWEVER...HIGH-END MVFR CIGS WOULD BE
THE LOWEST EXPECTED AT ANY SITE. AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR
CMX AND IWD TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

WITH HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT N WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THE DAY
AND TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HI CENTER MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THESE LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS STAY IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THEN EXPECT INCREASING SE-E
WINDS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. YET...ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GALES TO OCCUR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KLUBER
MARINE...KC/JLA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 724 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 140KT H3 JET MAX SLIDING ESEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THE NW
FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
ATTENDANT COLD FNT PUSHED THRU UPR MI LAST EVNG ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
-SHRASN MAINLY OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND WAS FOLLOWED BY SOME
GUSTY N WINDS THAT PEAKED AS HI AS 41 KT AT THE STANNARD ROCK
LIGHTHOUSE IN SCENTRAL LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE PCPN HAS
DIMINISHED FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR...SOME LES AIDED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO -11C IS OCCURRING NEAR LK
SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE LLVL NNE FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES
IN SASKATCHEWAN THE DEPARTING COLD FNT IS PRESENTING A SHARPER
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT EVEN HERE THE LES IS RATHER LIGHT...WITH
CONSIDERABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE DROPPING THE INVRN
BASE TOWARD 4K FT AND SHARPENING ACYC LLVL FLOW WEAKENING THE NEAR
SFC CNVGC. THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY
MOIST EITHER...WITH SFC DEWPT AT CKC IN THE MN ARROWHEAD DOWN TO 12F
AT 05Z AND HAS RESULTED IN CLRG JUST UPWIND OF THE LK. 00Z INL/YPL
RAOBS ALSO SHOW THIS DRYNESS. BUT MORE SC LINGERS FARTHER TO THE N
INTO ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA/NW MN. THERE IS PARTIAL CLRG OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO W THRU LK WINNIPEG CLOSER TO THE SFC HI CENTER AND WHERE THE
00Z RAOB FM THE PAS MANITOBA SHOWS INVRN BASE BLO H9...BUT EVEN HERE
BKN SC ARE PRESENT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LES AND LO CLD TRENDS.

TODAY...UNDER CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES NOW CENTERED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT OVER NW MN BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG TO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
FLATTER PRES GRADIENT. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHSN IN LLVL N-NE FLOW WL IMPACT THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL
AND THE FAR W FM ONTONAGON TO IWD...WHERE MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON
IS INDICATED TO HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT. GOING POPS APPEAR TO HAVE
THESE TRENDS IN HAND. BUT THE SHARP LLVL ACYC FLOW/LO INVRN BASE
BTWN 3-4K FT/PRESENCE OF DGZ ABV THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LK MOISTENED
LYR WL LIKELY HOLD DOWN SN ACCUMS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO
DESPITE FVRBL LK WATER-INVRN BASE DELTA T ARND 17C. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CLRG IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LK RIGHT NOW...SUSPECT THE
BKN-OVC SC A BIT FARTHER TO THE N-NW AND SUBSTANTIAL OVERWATER
INSTABILITY ARE SIGNS THE LO CLDS WL BE QUITE RESILIENT. SO TENDED
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

TNGT...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ALMOST RIGHT OVER UPR
MI BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THIS TREND WOULD SUG THE SC WL DSPT AND LO
TEMPS WL PLUNGE UNDER PWAT FALLING BLO 0.25 INCH/LGT WINDS...
CONCERNED THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LO CLD OBSVD THIS MRNG UPSTREAM
TO THE HI CENTER THAT COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH LO TEMPS FCST. SOME HI
CLDS MAY ALSO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LLVL FLOW BACKING MORE
NW WITHIN LLVL THERMAL TROF...SUSPECT THE SC WL BE MOST TENACIOUS E
OF MQT. MAINTAINED FLAVOR OF PREVIOUS FCST SHOWING THE LOWEST TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AND SCENTRAL INTO THE TEENS...BUT TENDED TO
RAISE THE FCST MINS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY ON CLRG
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS. UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY
SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHILE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES BUT ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF POSITION
OF PLAINS UPPER LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIT MORE DIFFERENCE BY
THURSDAY...BUT EVEN HERE THERE IS DECENT MODEL CLUSTERING OF
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SFC LOW 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
MORE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAINLY
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EXITS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE MOSTLY RESULTS IN A RAIN EVENT FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH SNOW
RE-ENTERING THE PICTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033MB WILL BE CENTERED VERY NEAR
UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE AN INITIAL WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS AT THE SFC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...HINT IS THERE FOR A WHILE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN INSTIGATOR FOR THE
PRECIP IS SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO IN NW FLOW ON
WESTERN EDGE OF RETREATING TROUGHING. MOST OF LARGER SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT FM SHORTWAVE /H7-H5 AND H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ STAYS
NORTH OF CWA. HOWEVER...INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEAMS UP WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT FM JET STREAK SLIDING EAST TOWARD
QUEBEC TO GENERATE SOME MID-LEVEL LIFT. LEFTOVER ISSUE IS WHETHER
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR OWING TO THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ERODED ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SFC. /THIS IS OF COURSE ASSUMING
THAT LOW CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING/. SINCE THE DRYING WILL NOT BE RE-INFORCED BY DRY
ADVECTION...THINK MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT EVENTUALLY ALLOWS LGT
PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO SFC. SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE MAINLY SNOW FOR PTYPE. ONLY SCNTRL WITH LGT SE WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN MAY SEE RAIN BE MAIN PTYPE.

WHERE SNOW OCCURS AS PTYPE...THERE IS A LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MINOR
ACCUMS AS...DESPITE IT HAPPENING IN THE AFTN/EVENING...BANDED SNOW
COULD FALL AT AN OKAY CLIP WITH STRONGER FORCING IN MID-LEVELS. NAM
WHICH IS GRANTED THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND DURATION OF
HEAVIER QPF SHOWS SNOW ACCUMS OVER 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST CWA 18Z
TUE THROUGH 06Z WED. WILL NOT GO THIS BULLISH YET AS THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT WILL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGHER CHANCE RANGE. ECMWF/GEM-NH
AND UKMET ALSO GENERATING QPF OVR UPR MICHIGAN BUT NOT NEAR AS HEAVY
AS NAM. TIMING AND EXTENT OF SNOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AWARE OF AS IT
COULD IMPACT EVENING TRAVEL OVER SOUTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN AND MAYBE
INTO CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT LGT PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY LATER EVENING AS
MAIN JET STREAK MOVES FARTHER EAST AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY WEAK WINDS AS SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERS. COULD SEE SOME FOG WITH
THIS SETUP IF MOISTURE THINS OUT MORE THAN SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS. AT
THE LEAST SOME STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF WARM
FRONT...WHICH BASED ON SFC WINDS/DWPNT GRADIENT...COULD BE AS FAR
NORTH AS CNTRL WISCONSIN BY 00Z THURSDAY. SE WINDS MAY HOLD IN
STRATUS MOST OF THE DAY OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
THANKS TO LESS MIXING DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ELSEWHERE...WOULD EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING PLAINS SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MAIN QUESTION FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WHETHER PRECIP MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THE DAY. GFS WOULD
SUGGEST SO...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET KEEP QPF SOUTH OF CWA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN GFS HAS SHOWN A TREND TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER HOLDING...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING AND THAT PROBABLY WORKS FOR NOW...AT LEAST UNTIL MORE
SIGNAL SHOWS UP THAT WARM FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER NORTH.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE FM THAT PERSISTING LOW CLOUD
DECK AND UPSLOPE FLOW. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER THIS JUST FINE FOR NOW.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF INTO LOWER 40S WITH PERSISTING
CLOUDS.

RAIN IS STILL ON FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PLAINS UPPER TROUGH HEADS
EAST AND PROPELS DEEPENING SFC LOW TOWARD UPR LAKES...VCNTY OF
NORTHERN WI OR UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH MSLP SOMEWHERE NEAR
990MB. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE OF 140+ KT JET STREAK
ROARING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PWATS OVER 1 INCH OR
OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO SPREAD A SWATH OF
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL CWA. STILL SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
THE GFS/GEM-NH QUICKER IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS
SLOWER BY ABOUT 6 HRS. KEPT A BROADBRUSHED 80 PCT CHANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO TIMING CAN BE MADE LATER ON. DRY
SLOT LIKELY BECOMES A FACTOR INTO DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...YET
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF ENHANCED RAIN FROM DEFORMATION
INDICATED BY H7-H5/H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST POPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AND H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE 50S. BASED ON LOCATION OF DRY SLOT AND H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...TSRA PROBABLY END UP FIRING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
CWA...SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BE A FACTOR
SOMETIME ALONG THE WAY AS WELL GIVEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WIND FIELDS FORECAST IN THE VCNTY OF
THE LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR ADVY GUSTS WOULD BE ALONG LK MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR ONCE
LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A COUPLE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE MEAN TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVES AND/OR RE-INFORCING COLD
FRONTS SLIDE THROUGH. COLDER AIR CHARGES BACK IN ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES FM ECMWF/GFS SHOULD START TO
SEE SNOW MIXING IN ON FRIDAY OVER AT LEAST WEST HALF INTERIOR.
AIRMASS CHILL INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS SIMILAR TO RECENT STRETCH OF
COOLER TEMPS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -6C BUT NOT QUITE TO -12C.
SINCE THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND AS
WELL...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE FAVORED AT
TIMES FOR THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

AS CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT MOISTER AIR TO THE N FLOWS OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE SUP WATERS...VFR CIGS AT CMX AND ESPECIALLY SAW
WITH MORE FVRBL UPSLOPE NNE WIND FLOW AHEAD OF APRCHG SFC HI PRES
SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR. SINCE THIS WIND DOWNSLOPES AT IWD...
CONDITIONS THERE MAY REMAIN VFR. AS THE HI MOVES OVHD TNGT...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS ANY LINGERING LO CLDS BREAK UP.
OTRW...GUSTY WINDS EARLY AT SAW WL GIVE WAY TO LGT WINDS AS THE HI
GETS CLOSER AND THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

WITH HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT N WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THE DAY
AND TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HI CENTER MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THESE LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS STAY IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THEN EXPECT INCREASING SE-E
WINDS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. YET...ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GALES TO OCCUR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 443 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV
ACCOMPANIED BY 140KT H3 JET MAX SLIDING ESEWD THRU ONTARIO IN THE NW
FLOW ALF BTWN MEAN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RDG OVER THE ROCKIES.
ATTENDANT COLD FNT PUSHED THRU UPR MI LAST EVNG ACCOMPANIED BY SOME
-SHRASN MAINLY OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES AND WAS FOLLOWED BY SOME
GUSTY N WINDS THAT PEAKED AS HI AS 41 KT AT THE STANNARD ROCK
LIGHTHOUSE IN SCENTRAL LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE LARGE SCALE PCPN HAS
DIMINISHED FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE DEEPER MSTR...SOME LES AIDED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -10 TO -11C IS OCCURRING NEAR LK
SUP...MAINLY OVER THE NCENTRAL WHERE LLVL NNE FLOW BTWN SFC HI PRES
IN SASKATCHEWAN THE DEPARTING COLD FNT IS PRESENTING A SHARPER
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. BUT EVEN HERE THE LES IS RATHER LIGHT...WITH
CONSIDERABLE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE DROPPING THE INVRN
BASE TOWARD 4K FT AND SHARPENING ACYC LLVL FLOW WEAKENING THE NEAR
SFC CNVGC. THE NEAR SFC LYR IN THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY
MOIST EITHER...WITH SFC DEWPT AT CKC IN THE MN ARROWHEAD DOWN TO 12F
AT 05Z AND HAS RESULTED IN CLRG JUST UPWIND OF THE LK. 00Z INL/YPL
RAOBS ALSO SHOW THIS DRYNESS. BUT MORE SC LINGERS FARTHER TO THE N
INTO ONTARIO/SRN MANITOBA/NW MN. THERE IS PARTIAL CLRG OVER FAR NW
ONTARIO W THRU LK WINNIPEG CLOSER TO THE SFC HI CENTER AND WHERE THE
00Z RAOB FM THE PAS MANITOBA SHOWS INVRN BASE BLO H9...BUT EVEN HERE
BKN SC ARE PRESENT.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE LES AND LO CLD TRENDS.

TODAY...UNDER CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALF...SFC HI PRES NOW CENTERED OVER
SASKATCHEWAN IS PROGGED TO DRIFT OVER NW MN BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG TO DIMINISH STEADILY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
FLATTER PRES GRADIENT. HIER RES MODELS INDICATE THE MOST PERSISTENT
SHSN IN LLVL N-NE FLOW WL IMPACT THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL
AND THE FAR W FM ONTONAGON TO IWD...WHERE MOISTENING OFF LK NIPIGON
IS INDICATED TO HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT. GOING POPS APPEAR TO HAVE
THESE TRENDS IN HAND. BUT THE SHARP LLVL ACYC FLOW/LO INVRN BASE
BTWN 3-4K FT/PRESENCE OF DGZ ABV THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LK MOISTENED
LYR WL LIKELY HOLD DOWN SN ACCUMS TO NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO
DESPITE FVRBL LK WATER-INVRN BASE DELTA T ARND 17C. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME CLRG IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF THE LK RIGHT NOW...SUSPECT THE
BKN-OVC SC A BIT FARTHER TO THE N-NW AND SUBSTANTIAL OVERWATER
INSTABILITY ARE SIGNS THE LO CLDS WL BE QUITE RESILIENT. SO TENDED
TOWARD THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.

TNGT...SFC HI PRES CENTER IS PROGGED TO DRIFT ALMOST RIGHT OVER UPR
MI BY 12Z TUE. WHILE THIS TREND WOULD SUG THE SC WL DSPT AND LO
TEMPS WL PLUNGE UNDER PWAT FALLING BLO 0.25 INCH/LGT WINDS...
CONCERNED THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LO CLD OBSVD THIS MRNG UPSTREAM
TO THE HI CENTER THAT COULD WREAK HAVOC WITH LO TEMPS FCST. SOME HI
CLDS MAY ALSO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WITH THE LLVL FLOW BACKING MORE
NW WITHIN LLVL THERMAL TROF...SUSPECT THE SC WL BE MOST TENACIOUS E
OF MQT. MAINTAINED FLAVOR OF PREVIOUS FCST SHOWING THE LOWEST TEMPS
OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF AND SCENTRAL INTO THE TEENS...BUT TENDED TO
RAISE THE FCST MINS A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY ON CLRG
TRENDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

BRIEF PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW
DEVELOPS. UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY
SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WHILE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE
WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 00Z MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES BUT ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER IN TERMS OF POSITION
OF PLAINS UPPER LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BIT MORE DIFFERENCE BY
THURSDAY...BUT EVEN HERE THERE IS DECENT MODEL CLUSTERING OF
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF SFC LOW 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
MORE DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAINLY
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY THE LOW EXITS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE MOSTLY RESULTS IN A RAIN EVENT FOR MID-LATE WEEK WITH SNOW
RE-ENTERING THE PICTURE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR FILTERS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

LARGE SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OF 1033MB WILL BE CENTERED VERY NEAR
UPR MICHIGAN TO START THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHILE AN INITIAL WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS AT THE SFC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...HINT IS THERE FOR A WHILE THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. MAIN INSTIGATOR FOR THE
PRECIP IS SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO IN NW FLOW ON
WESTERN EDGE OF RETREATING TROUGHING. MOST OF LARGER SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT FM SHORTWAVE /H7-H5 AND H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/ STAYS
NORTH OF CWA. HOWEVER...INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TEAMS UP WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT FM JET STREAK SLIDING EAST TOWARD
QUEBEC TO GENERATE SOME MID-LEVEL LIFT. LEFTOVER ISSUE IS WHETHER
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR OWING TO THE SFC HIGH WILL BE ERODED ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE SFC. /THIS IS OF COURSE ASSUMING
THAT LOW CLOUDS AROUND TONIGHT DO IN FACT CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY MORNING/. SINCE THE DRYING WILL NOT BE RE-INFORCED BY DRY
ADVECTION...THINK MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT EVENTUALLY ALLOWS LGT
PRECIP TO MAKE IT TO SFC. SOUNDINGS FM THE NAM AND THICKNESSES
INDICATE MAINLY SNOW FOR PTYPE. ONLY SCNTRL WITH LGT SE WINDS OFF LK
MICHIGAN MAY SEE RAIN BE MAIN PTYPE.

WHERE SNOW OCCURS AS PTYPE...THERE IS A LEAST SOME CHANCE OF MINOR
ACCUMS AS...DESPITE IT HAPPENING IN THE AFTN/EVENING...BANDED SNOW
COULD FALL AT AN OKAY CLIP WITH STRONGER FORCING IN MID-LEVELS. NAM
WHICH IS GRANTED THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND DURATION OF
HEAVIER QPF SHOWS SNOW ACCUMS OVER 2 INCHES OVER SOUTHWEST CWA 18Z
TUE THROUGH 06Z WED. WILL NOT GO THIS BULLISH YET AS THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER...BUT WILL BUMP POPS UP TO HIGHER CHANCE RANGE. ECMWF/GEM-NH
AND UKMET ALSO GENERATING QPF OVR UPR MICHIGAN BUT NOT NEAR AS HEAVY
AS NAM. TIMING AND EXTENT OF SNOW SOMETHING TO KEEP AWARE OF AS IT
COULD IMPACT EVENING TRAVEL OVER SOUTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN AND MAYBE
INTO CNTRL AND EASTERN CWA.

DECENT AGREEMENT THAT LGT PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY LATER EVENING AS
MAIN JET STREAK MOVES FARTHER EAST AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
VERY WEAK WINDS AS SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERS. COULD SEE SOME FOG WITH
THIS SETUP IF MOISTURE THINS OUT MORE THAN SHOWN ON SOUNDINGS. AT
THE LEAST SOME STRATUS SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE NORTH OF WARM
FRONT...WHICH BASED ON SFC WINDS/DWPNT GRADIENT...COULD BE AS FAR
NORTH AS CNTRL WISCONSIN BY 00Z THURSDAY. SE WINDS MAY HOLD IN
STRATUS MOST OF THE DAY OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN
THANKS TO LESS MIXING DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ELSEWHERE...WOULD EXPECT INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS OUT AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING PLAINS SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT. MAIN QUESTION FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WHETHER PRECIP MOVES BACK IN THROUGH THE DAY. GFS WOULD
SUGGEST SO...WHILE THE ECMWF/GEM-NH AND UKMET KEEP QPF SOUTH OF CWA
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN GFS HAS SHOWN A TREND TOWARD DRIER
WEATHER HOLDING...AT LEAST OVER THE NORTHERN CWA. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING AND THAT PROBABLY WORKS FOR NOW...AT LEAST UNTIL MORE
SIGNAL SHOWS UP THAT WARM FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE FARTHER NORTH.
SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE FM THAT PERSISTING LOW CLOUD
DECK AND UPSLOPE FLOW. SLIGHT CHANCES COVER THIS JUST FINE FOR NOW.
LOWERED MAX TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF INTO LOWER 40S WITH PERSISTING
CLOUDS.

RAIN IS STILL ON FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS PLAINS UPPER TROUGH HEADS
EAST AND PROPELS DEEPENING SFC LOW TOWARD UPR LAKES...VCNTY OF
NORTHERN WI OR UPR MICHIGAN BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH MSLP SOMEWHERE NEAR
990MB. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE OF 140+ KT JET STREAK
ROARING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PWATS OVER 1 INCH OR
OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING TO SPREAD A SWATH OF
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS ALL CWA. STILL SOME SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES AS
THE GFS/GEM-NH QUICKER IN BRINGING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. ECMWF IS
SLOWER BY ABOUT 6 HRS. KEPT A BROADBRUSHED 80 PCT CHANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO TIMING CAN BE MADE LATER ON. DRY
SLOT LIKELY BECOMES A FACTOR INTO DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY...YET
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF ENHANCED RAIN FROM DEFORMATION
INDICATED BY H7-H5/H5-H3 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HIGHEST POPS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE EAST CLOSER TO LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS AND H85-H7
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY WITH MAX
TEMPS INTO THE 50S. BASED ON LOCATION OF DRY SLOT AND H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES...TSRA PROBABLY END UP FIRING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
CWA...SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS PROBABLY WILL BE A FACTOR
SOMETIME ALONG THE WAY AS WELL GIVEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONG WIND FIELDS FORECAST IN THE VCNTY OF
THE LOW. BEST CHANCE FOR ADVY GUSTS WOULD BE ALONG LK MICHIGAN LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN ALONG LK SUPERIOR ONCE
LOW MOVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LINGERS FROM FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A COUPLE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE MEAN TROUGHING AS SHORTWAVES AND/OR RE-INFORCING COLD
FRONTS SLIDE THROUGH. COLDER AIR CHARGES BACK IN ON FRIDAY. BASED ON
1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESSES FM ECMWF/GFS SHOULD START TO
SEE SNOW MIXING IN ON FRIDAY OVER AT LEAST WEST HALF INTERIOR.
AIRMASS CHILL INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS SIMILAR TO RECENT STRETCH OF
COOLER TEMPS WITH H85 TEMPS DOWN BLO -6C BUT NOT QUITE TO -12C.
SINCE THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE AROUND AS
WELL...PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LAKE ENHANCED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE FAVORED AT
TIMES FOR THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

RAPID PRESSURE RISE BEHIND SURFACE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING.
MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE SKIES SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY TO 2-3 MILES AT IWD AND SAW
BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN SHSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

WITH HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT N WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO DIMINISH STEADILY THRU THE DAY
AND TO BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HI CENTER MOVES OVER THE AREA.
THESE LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS STAY IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS THEN EXPECT INCREASING SE-E
WINDS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOW FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS LK
SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW...WINDS MAY
DIMINISH FOR A TIME ON THURSDAY. YET...ONCE THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST
OF LK SUPERIOR...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN ALONG WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GALES TO OCCUR. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
TO 30 KTS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. &&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...KC/JLA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 130 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO. WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF WAVE HAS PRODUCED SOME PCPN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS ALSO BLOSSOMED ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI...DRY AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC
OBS INDICATE SOME PCPN OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.

AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
HEALTHY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB/3HR WITH FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH GRADIENT WIND WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NRLY WINDS
BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS
OVERWATER INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS (850MB TEMPS DROP FROM ROUGHLY
-4/-5C AT 00Z TO -9/-11C BY 06Z). WINDS WILL LIKELY GUSTS TO AROUND
40MPH AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN ALONG COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ACT ON OVERWATER INSTABILITY
(LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 13C). AFTER A PERIOD OF SHRASN IN VCNTY
OF COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO N TO NE FLOW LES AS
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17C OR BETTER. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE STRONG NEGATIVES WORKING AGAINST MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT LES.
FIRST...LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC AS SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND SECOND...
INVERSION CRASHES TO 4KFT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMP ZONE
REMAINING ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE N TO NE FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...INCLUDING
EVENING PCPN ALONG FRONT...WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPING OCCURS SUCH AS
THE HURON MTNS). LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT MOISTENING FROM LAKE NIPIGON MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF
MORE PERSISTENT LES INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND KIWD/PORCUPINE
MTNS.

STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
DURING MON. ALTHOUGH INVERSION BASE TEMP AROUND -10C PROVIDES A
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 17C OR SO...LES WILL STRUGGLE MON DUE TO
SHARP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A LOW INVERSION AT 3-4KFT. COMBINED WITH
EARLY SEASON NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF LES ENDING EARLY IN
THE AFTN. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME FLURRIES TO LINGER
ALONG THE TRAJECTORY DOWN WIND FROM LAKE NIPIGON. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL
BE ANTICYCLONIC...MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY
LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU THRU THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

AT 00Z TUE...A 1035MB SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA
AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(AT LEAST INLAND)...MON NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS INLAND
AND INTO THE 20S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED AS AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING LEEWARD OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT TO JUST S OF THE CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
CWA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER
THE SRN CWA. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...BUT ANY
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW GIVEN ONLY A SHALLOW
WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. HIGHS ON TUE LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SETUP...THEY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
MORE SPECIFIC AND IMPORTANT DETAILS WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA...THIS LEADS TO A DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. MODEL VARIABILITY (BOTH
BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH INTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY) MAY SEEM
SMALL WITH RELATION TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW IT WILL MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN WIND/WAVE
FORECASTS AND WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS/TIMING. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FUTURE RUNS AS IS
COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MOST
(IF NOT ALL) PRECIP WILL BE RAIN GIVEN 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO UP
TO 10C AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...OR A BIT COLDER IF THE SYSTEM STAY S OF
THE CWA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE
RAIN...AND AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWA.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THAT PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW WITH TIME. 850MB
TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DECEASE FROM -2C AT 00Z SAT TO AROUND
-7C BY 00Z SUN. LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC TO
NEUTRAL IN DIRECTIONAL CHANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUN AS MODELS DIFFER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVERALL IN
EXTENDED FORECAST...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR
WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

RAPID PRESSURE RISE BEHIND SURFACE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT ALL THREE TAF LOCATIONS LATE THIS EVENING. AS SURFACE
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT/WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS MORNING.
MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS INTO
THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE SKIES SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVERNIGHT BUT VSBYS COULD LOWER BRIEFLY TO 2-3 MILES AT IWD AND SAW
BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN SHSN.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013

COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB/3HR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR RESULTING IN STRONG
OVERWATER INSTABILITY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35-40KT GALES
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS PRES RISE MAX QUICKLY SHIFTS
S OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL LATER MON THRU EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. LATE WED THRU FRI THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS OF AT LEAST 15-25KT...AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ248>251-
     265>267.

  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ162-240>245-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...MZ
MARINE...ROLFSON





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 700 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

DEPARTING LONG-WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE E THRU THIS
EVE...GIVING WAY TO SHARP NRN STREAM TROUGH AXIS WITH A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW WITHIN IT. THIS TROF FEATURE WILL PICK UP A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER CO/KS AND LIFT IT NE SUCH THAT IT IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACRS NE/IA THRU WED ON ITS WAY TWD MN/WI. A SECONDARY LOW
PRES CENTER OVER ERN KS WILL MOVE INTO WRN IA...DEVOLVING INTO A
SFC TROF...BUT THIS FEATURE IS MAINLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING
PRECIP OVER THE MPX CWFA THIS AFTN. ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS INCRD ON
SEVERAL LEVELS BETWEEN 290K- 305K WHILE PWATS HAVE STEADILY INCRD
OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL-NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...INCLUDING PRECIP FALLING AS -SN
IN NRN TIERS OF THE CWFA. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN 12Z MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PROFILES NEARLY ENTIRELY SUB- FREEZING EXCEPT
JUST ABOVE THE SFC. PRECIP GENERATION HAS INCRD THIS AFTN AS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS GATHERS STRENGTH...WITH ENHANCED
LIFT SPREADING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND AHEAD OF THE
DIGGING TROF. THOUGH PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO INCRS THRU THE REST
OF THIS AFTN...THE SFC TROF WILL DROP TO THE S WHILE THE MAIN LOW
PRES SYS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS TO THE NE...MAKING FOR A
BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF WED MRNG. ELY
WINDS WILL MAINLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT
AS THE LARGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...ENHANCED LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE STEADY RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR
POPS...HAVE DROPPED POPS INTO THE SLGT-LOW CHC RANGES TNGT THEN
RAMPED UP TO LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL BY LATE TMRW AFTN. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTN TO
TNGT TO TMRW. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE WAA FROM THE SW TMRW IN
ADVANCE OF THE LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
TO LWR 40S OVER MUCH OF THE CWFA THRU TMRW MRNG...THEN HIGHS ON
WED INCRS TO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

A WET START TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH A BREAK THIS
WEEKEND...THEN POSSIBLY ANOTHER STORM NEXT WEEK.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WET START WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL THAT A BROAD AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW ACROSS
KANSAS...AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE INITIAL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THIS AFTN WILL BE NON-EXISTENT
FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1" BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV
NORMAL WHICH INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
ISOLD TSRA. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTN INTO WISCONSIN...DECREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE IN CENTRAL MN MAY ALLOW FOR -SHRA
ACROSS EC MN/WC WI THRU THE EARLY EVENING HRS. IN ADDITION...AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST...NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND PROVIDE A
COOLER PERIOD FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
MOVE OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY.

THE MEAN PATTERN WILL CHG ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEK INTO A MORE SW
FLOW...LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE EC/GFS
HAVE LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES BY NEXT WEEK...SFC FEATURES AND THERMAL FIELDS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. THE BEST FORECAST IS TO LEAN TOWARD A WETTER WEEK...BUT
RE-FRAME ON ANY ONE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL A BETTER PICTURE
DEVELOPS ON THE THERMAL PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

A RATHER MESSY PERIOD LIES AHEAD. SFC LOW OVER NE KS AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW BACK OVER UTAH HELPING TO PUSH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER UP INTO THE MPX AREA...BUT SFC WINDS
EMANATING FROM DRY SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO
WREAK HAVOC ON THE MAINTENANCE OF LOW CIGS ACROSS THE AREA. IN
FACT...THE RAP WOULD INDICATE THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF GOING VFR FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING. FOLLOWED THE HRRR
AND TO A LESSER AMOUNT THE RAP FOR BRING MVFR AND LOWER CIGS BACK
IN. RAP SOUNDINGS EVERYWHERE SHOW DZ POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
8Z. MOST HI-RES MODELS SHOW LITTLE SPITS OF REFLECTIVITY AT THE 1
KM LEVEL ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF THOSE MODELS CREATING
DZ...SO CONTINUED WITH ITS MENTION IN THE TAFS. THAT KS SFC LOW IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY BE IN THE VICINITY OF MSP BY 6Z THU AND AS
IT MOVES NORTH...THE MN CWA WILL BE GETTING INTO A SIMILAR
LOCATION TO WHAT ERN NEB IS IN RIGHT NOW...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENTS IN CIGS TOMORROW ONCE THEY TANK
TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AT WI TERMINAL...WHOSE ERN
LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW MAY ALLOW CIGS TO BACK ABOVE IFR
LEVELS BY WED AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...MOST MODELS AGREE THAT THAT DOES NOT REALLY START TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO 00Z...HENCE RAIN DOES NOT SHOW UP
UNTIL LATE AT A FEW OF THE TAFS.

KMSP...MVFR CIGS STARTING TO EXPAND ACROSS SRN MN...SO MAY SO THEM
AT MSP PRIOR TO 4Z. OTHERWISE...RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH KEEPING THE REALLY LOW CONDITIONS OUT OF MSP UNTIL 8Z OR
LATER. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE WHOLE DAY ON
WED...HARD TO SEE HOW CIGS AT MSP WILL IMPROVE MUCH...SO HAVE KEPT
THEM IFR THROUGHOUT. ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT BEST WITH DZ BEING
OBSERVED AT MSP TONIGHT...BUT WILL AT THE VERY LEAST SEE BR
DEVELOP IF WE DO NOT GET THE DZ. FOR THE RAIN...IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
QUICKLY...BUT NOT UNTIL ALMOST 3Z THU...TILL THEN...NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES/DZ AND LOTS OF CLOUDS. WITH SFC LOW ENDING UP NEAR
THE FIELD BY THE END OF THE TAF...WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS...WITH DIRECTION REMAINING OUT OF THE E TO SE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -RA ENDING IN MRNG. WINDS BCMG W 10-15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1213 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

One more day of quiet weather across the Bi-State Region as a weak
upper level ridge moves across the Mississippi Valley.  Should see
plenty of sunshine today due to the dry air which remains locked in
place over the region; though higher clouds will be increasing later
in the day as the subtropical jet draws Pacific moisture up ahead of
the the strong cutoff low over California and Nevada.  Surface
cyclogenesis will ramp up over eastern Colorado today which will
increase southerly flow across the southern Plains and Deep South.
This will help to develop a warm front between a strong Canadian
high diving into the Upper Midwest and warm moist Gulf of Mexico air
trying to build up from the south.  The NAM suggests that the front
may make it much of the way through Missouri and perhaps parts of
southwest Illinois, while the GFS and RAP aren`t as aggressive.
Either way, not sure there will be much difference in sensible
weather other than higher levels of surface humidity.  Surface
temperatures are nearly identical for today on all short range
guidance, so have followed guidance numbers closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM:
(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

(Tonight through Thursday Night)

Little change required as going forecast has a good handle on the
situation.  Still appears that this will be an active period
beginning late tonight with the likelihood of a widespread soaking
rain with potential for a few strong thunderstorms.

Followed the ECMWF which has been the most consistent with the
overall evolution of the weather pattern the next few days. Most of
tonight will remain dry until strong moisture convergence moves into
central Missouri after 09Z on the nose of a 45kt low level jet.
This low level forcing will move in concert with a shortwave trough
across the CWA tomorrow morning.  Will have likely or categorical
pops going over central Missouri starting late tonight and then
spread them eastward across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois
tomorrow morning.

Then showers and thunderstorms will become more scattered on Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as the shortwave passes to the east.
The ECMWF depicts an upper ridge moving east across the Midwest
through 12Z Wednesday. Thereafter, strong mid level ascent will
set up between midday Wednesday until the trough currently over
the western CONUS passes through our area on Thursday.  Strong
moisture transport and convergence will be occurring beneath this mid
level ascent ahead of the approaching attendant surface cold
front. Likely or categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms
are still warranted ahead of the front Wednesday into Thursday.
There will continue to be the potential for strong thunderstorms
during this period given the very strong low level and deep layer
shear. Risk remains conditional on the amount of instability that
will be available which will be dependent on how much precipitation
is occurring ahead of the front. Will go ahead a mention the
potential for a few strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Will keep a lingering chance of showers on Thursday night behind the
cold front.   MOS temperatures are in good agreement and generally
followed.

(Friday Through Sunday)

There is good agreement that late week into next weekend will be
dry behind Thursday`s cold front. Both the GFS/ECMWF brings a
second upper trough with an attendant cold front through the
Midwest on Friday, though forcing and moisture looks to be too
limited to warrant any mention of rain chances at this point. This
trough will then move east and upper heights will rise as a ridge
builds in from the west.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

A cold front has sagged swd into nrn MO and cntrl IL late this
mrng. A weak e-sely sfc wind can be expected this aftn and tgt,
increasing from a sely direction Tuesday mrng. High level
cloudiness will be increasing this aftn and tgt. The cloud ceiling
will lower late tgt and Tuesday mrng as a warm front approaches
from the sw, and a swly low level jet over the cntrl and srn Plains
brings increasing low level warm air advection and moisture into
our area. Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread ewd into COU
by early Tuesday mrng and into the rest of the taf sites by late
mrng or early aftn. Will lower the cigs and vsbys into the mvfr
catagory in COU Tuesday mrng with showers.

Specifics for KSTL: A weak e-sely sfc wind can be expected this
aftn and tgt, increasing to 8-9 kts Tuesday aftn from a sely
direction. High level clouds will stream into STL later this aftn
and tgt with the cloud ceiling lowering into the mvfr catagory
Tuesday aftn as showers and a few storms move into STL.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 655 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

One more day of quiet weather across the Bi-State Region as a weak
upper level ridge moves across the Mississippi Valley.  Should see
plenty of sunshine today due to the dry air which remains locked in
place over the region; though higher clouds will be increasing later
in the day as the subtropical jet draws Pacific moisture up ahead of
the the strong cutoff low over California and Nevada.  Surface
cyclogenesis will ramp up over eastern Colorado today which will
increase southerly flow across the southern Plains and Deep South.
This will help to develop a warm front between a strong Canadian
high diving into the Upper Midwest and warm moist Gulf of Mexico air
trying to build up from the south.  The NAM suggests that the front
may make it much of the way through Missouri and perhaps parts of
southwest Illinois, while the GFS and RAP aren`t as aggressive.
Either way, not sure there will be much difference in sensible
weather other than higher levels of surface humidity.  Surface
temperatures are nearly identical for today on all short range
guidance, so have followed guidance numbers closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM:
(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

(Tonight through Thursday Night)

Little change required as going forecast has a good handle on the
situation.  Still appears that this will be an active period
beginning late tonight with the likelihood of a widespread soaking
rain with potential for a few strong thunderstorms.

Followed the ECMWF which has been the most consistent with the
overall evolution of the weather pattern the next few days. Most of
tonight will remain dry until strong moisture convergence moves into
central Missouri after 09Z on the nose of a 45kt low level jet.
This low level forcing will move in concert with a shortwave trough
across the CWA tomorrow morning.  Will have likely or categorical
pops going over central Missouri starting late tonight and then
spread them eastward across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois
tomorrow morning.

Then showers and thunderstorms will become more scattered on Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as the shortwave passes to the east.
The ECMWF depicts an upper ridge moving east across the Midwest
through 12Z Wednesday. Thereafter, strong mid level ascent will
set up between midday Wednesday until the trough currently over
the western CONUS passes through our area on Thursday.  Strong
moisture transport and convergence will be occurring beneath this mid
level ascent ahead of the approaching attendant surface cold
front. Likely or categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms
are still warranted ahead of the front Wednesday into Thursday.
There will continue to be the potential for strong thunderstorms
during this period given the very strong low level and deep layer
shear. Risk remains conditional on the amount of instability that
will be available which will be dependent on how much precipitation
is occurring ahead of the front. Will go ahead a mention the
potential for a few strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Will keep a lingering chance of showers on Thursday night behind the
cold front.   MOS temperatures are in good agreement and generally
followed.

(Friday Through Sunday)

There is good agreement that late week into next weekend will be
dry behind Thursday`s cold front. Both the GFS/ECMWF brings a
second upper trough with an attendant cold front through the
Midwest on Friday, though forcing and moisture looks to be too
limited to warrant any mention of rain chances at this point. This
trough will then move east and upper heights will rise as a ridge
builds in from the west.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

Primary concern this morning is the area of IFR CIGS/VSBYS moving
north toward central and southeast Missouri out of Arkansas.
Current satellite trends have the clouds/fog moving into parts of
Cole and Moniteau counties between 1345-1400Z, and somewhat
earlier for parts of Reynolds county. This will be 45 minutes to
more than an hour after sunrise...so current thinking is that the
stratus will slow down and stop before it makes significant
penetration into our area. While this is the most likely scenario,
it is certainly possible that the stratus will keep on trucking
northeast and blanket much of the area along and south of the
I-70 corridor, but I think the probability of this is low.

The remainder of the period through 12Z Tuesday should be VFR with
light east-southeast flow. Some light rain is possible in central
and northwest Missouri after 09Z Tuesday, but the more significant
precipitation looks to hold off until later in the morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect VFR flight conditions and light east-southeast flow at
least through 12Z Tuesday. The stratus/fog over southwest Missouri
should stop moving northeast shortly after sunrise. There is an
outside chance that it could keep moving up into east central
Missouri, but I think this is a very low probability. Attention
turns to Tuesday when a period of wet weather is expected to
begin. There may be some light rain between 12Z and 15Z Tuesday
morning, however it appears that the more significant rain and
lowering CIGS/VSBYS will hold off until 18Z or later.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 309 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

One more day of quiet weather across the Bi-State Region as a weak
upper level ridge moves across the Mississippi Valley.  Should see
plenty of sunshine today due to the dry air which remains locked in
place over the region; though higher clouds will be increasing later
in the day as the subtropical jet draws Pacific moisture up ahead of
the the strong cutoff low over California and Nevada.  Surface
cyclogenesis will ramp up over eastern Colorado today which will
increase southerly flow across the southern Plains and Deep South.
This will help to develop a warm front between a strong Canadian
high diving into the Upper Midwest and warm moist Gulf of Mexico air
trying to build up from the south.  The NAM suggests that the front
may make it much of the way through Missouri and perhaps parts of
southwest Illinois, while the GFS and RAP aren`t as aggressive.
Either way, not sure there will be much difference in sensible
weather other than higher levels of surface humidity.  Surface
temperatures are nearly identical for today on all short range
guidance, so have followed guidance numbers closely.

Carney

.LONG TERM:
(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013

(Tonight through Thursday Night)

Little change required as going forecast has a good handle on the
situation.  Still appears that this will be an active period
beginning late tonight with the likelihood of a widespread soaking
rain with potential for a few strong thunderstorms.

Followed the ECMWF which has been the most consistent with the
overall evolution of the weather pattern the next few days. Most of
tonight will remain dry until strong moisture convergence moves into
central Missouri after 09Z on the nose of a 45kt low level jet.
This low level forcing will move in concert with a shortwave trough
across the CWA tomorrow morning.  Will have likely or categorical
pops going over central Missouri starting late tonight and then
spread them eastward across eastern Missouri into southwest Illinois
tomorrow morning.

Then showers and thunderstorms will become more scattered on Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday Night as the shortwave passes to the east.
The ECMWF depicts an upper ridge moving east across the Midwest
through 12Z Wednesday. Thereafter, strong mid level ascent will
set up between midday Wednesday until the trough currently over
the western CONUS passes through our area on Thursday.  Strong
moisture transport and convergence will be occurring beneath this mid
level ascent ahead of the approaching attendant surface cold
front. Likely or categorical pops for showers and thunderstorms
are still warranted ahead of the front Wednesday into Thursday.
There will continue to be the potential for strong thunderstorms
during this period given the very strong low level and deep layer
shear. Risk remains conditional on the amount of instability that
will be available which will be dependent on how much precipitation
is occurring ahead of the front. Will go ahead a mention the
potential for a few strong thunderstorms in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook.

Will keep a lingering chance of showers on Thursday night behind the
cold front.   MOS temperatures are in good agreement and generally
followed.

(Friday Through Sunday)

There is good agreement that late week into next weekend will be
dry behind Thursday`s cold front. Both the GFS/ECMWF brings a
second upper trough with an attendant cold front through the
Midwest on Friday, though forcing and moisture looks to be too
limited to warrant any mention of rain chances at this point. This
trough will then move east and upper heights will rise as a ridge
builds in from the west.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2013

Winds will become sely on Mon but remain light aob 7 kts. Sky
expected to remain clear, with ci spreading over the area during
the day Mon. VFR conditions expected at all terminals except
perhaps steam fg at KSUS overnight.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 236 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE DAYS AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED
WITH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CAUSED BY A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE...AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DAMPENING ALL DAY...A STILL
EASILY-RECOGNIZED CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS SC...AND WILL DRIFT EAST
NEARLY OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT THIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS IT
SHUTTING OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVE...BUT QPF WILL BE GENERALLY
ZERO...0.01-0.02 AT BEST. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP BACK ACROSS
GEORGIA IS MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN THANKS TO STEEPENED LAPSE RATES
BENEATH THE -17C COLD POOL. AS THIS MOVES EAST AND ABOVE THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...IT HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING (THANKS ALSO IN
PART TO THE UPPER LOW FILLING)...AND THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS...NEITHER THE HRRR OR WRF SUGGEST ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT...SO HAVE CUT BACK POP TO SILENT AFTER DARK.

WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE /DRYING/ TODAY...AND A MOISTENED
COLUMN...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT GOOD
SURFACE SATURATION AND LOW-LEVEL HYDROLAPSE RATES...AND FORECAST
LOWS APPROACH CROSSOVER TEMPS. THE INHIBITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT...AT
LEAST PARTIALLY...RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SAME CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP MINS FROM FALLING TOO LOW...AND HAVE LEANED PRIMARILY ON THE
WARMER LAV NUMBERS SINCE THE MET/MAV CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL. EXPECT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE HEADLINE WEATHER STORY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE OCTOBER WARMING TREND WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER. DAYBREAK TUESDAY A SHORT-WAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE COAST...AND IN IT`S WAKE AMPLIFICATION OF
HEIGHTS ALOFT OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BULGES INTO THE CAROLINAS
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF HEIGHT RISES WILL
BOLSTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING A SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD SE INTO CAROLINAS BEFORE SLIPPING
OFFSHORE EARLY ON THURSDAY.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON BUT ONLY BY SEVERAL DEGREES SINCE OVERNIGHT RADIATION
COOLING WILL BE DECENT TO VERY GOOD...ALLOWING HEAT ESCAPE AND
SUBSEQUENT NIGHT-TIME COOLING AND A SOLID EARLY MORNING INVERSION
EACH DAY. BOUTS OF FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION INTO THE ZONES SINCE OCCASIONAL CLOUDS
COULD INHIBIT FORMATION. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DUE TO THE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY MENTIONABLE POP VALUES THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY HIGHS TO END UP JUST SHY OF 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMILARLY A VERY MID THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASED AND VEERED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. FRIDAY STILL FINDS US IN A VERY WARM AIRMASS BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW IMPLIES THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO OCCUR MUCH
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. BEST RAIN CHANCES THUS COME WITH
ACTUAL FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SATURDAY BY THE DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE TOUGH AXIS TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY LARGE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO SIMPLY
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS ON SUNDAY AND
ROUGHLY A CATEGORY LOWER BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL POSE NO AVIATION PROBLEMS...WITH JUST MID
CLOUD CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...WITH VARIABLE WIND INLAND.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR WEAK
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LIGHT FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...BEST
CHANCE INLAND. TUESDAY...MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DIFFUSE CENTER ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST...AS IT
GETS PUSHED AWAY BY A MUCH STRONGER HIGH /1040MB CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/. THIS WILL HAPPEN SLOWLY TONIGHT...THUS THE
CURRENT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ONLY GRADUALLY TIGHTENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW- AMPLITUDE...1-2
FT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED 3 FTER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20NM
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY FLAGS EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WATERS WILL BECOME A
BIT BUMPY AS NE WINDS INCREASE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BECOMING SITUATED MORE OVERHEAD WITH EASING
WIND WEDNESDAY. 2-3 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED BUT UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND AROUND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS/BAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD OUR
COAST. NO TSTMS ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
FEW TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL BE MADE UP OF 2 FT ESE WAVES EVERY 8-10 SECONDS MIXED WITH
1-2 FT E WAVES IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY AS LARGE
HIGH SITS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT PRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. BUILDING SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF
AN 11 SEC SE SWELL AND A LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME BUILDING WIND WAVE
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY YIELD ADVISORY-LEVEL SEAS. AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
BE FURTHER TIGHTENING AND THE WIND FORECAST MAY RISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. A WELL
PRONOUNCED VEER ASSOCIATED WITH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE
TURNS THE WINDS FROM COAST-PARALLEL TO ALMOST PERPENDICULAR
OFFSHORE. THIS OPENS UP A NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE GRADIENT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS AS THE NEAR SHORE SEAS DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM LANDMASS
SHADOWING. FURTHER FROM SHORE SEAS WILL EASE WITH LESS RAPIDITY
BUT EASE NONETHELESS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/JDW






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

 111 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE DAYS AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000 PM FOLLOWS...

CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING BUT HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A GULF-STATES IMPULSE ARE POISED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE COULD VERY WELL BECOME BROKEN WITH CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY DECELERATE THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVES AFTER 6Z/2AM.
CURRENT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS LOOK ON TARGET AND APPEAR TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL BETWEEN
6Z-11Z/2AM- 7AM...WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA EXPECTED
AT DAYBREAK MONDAY.

LIGHT SOUTH SURFACE FLOW TO LGT/VRBL WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
RELATIVELY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE. COLUMN MOISTURE
REMAINS LOW WITH 00Z MONDAY CHS/MHX UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DEPICTING
BETWEEN 0.66-0.84 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE LIGHT SOUTH
WIND FLOW MAY ELEVATE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES MOSTLY ALONG AND
NEAR THE COASTAL ZONES OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD GENERATE POCKETS OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT
AND DENSITY OF THE FOG AND NO PLANS TO INCLUDE IN ZONES AT THIS
TIME. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE COME MORE INTO ALIGNMENT FOR MONDAY
REGARDING THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION. NAM MOS HAS SHRUNK ITS POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO WHILE GFS MOS HAS TWEAKED ITS POPS
HIGHER. THIS CONSENSUS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND THE DEEP WESTERLY OR DOWNSLOPE FLOW. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST ONE...ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING MON. THE
GFS HAS THIS FEATURE COMING THROUGH IN TWO PARTS...ONE EARLY IN THE
DAY AND THEN ANOTHER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE. COLUMNAR MOISTURE
DOES INCREASE TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ON MON. HOWEVER...SATURATION
OR NEAR SATURATION IS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...SOME INLAND LOCATIONS DO BRIEFLY SATURATE DOWN TO 4-5 KFT.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS SOME
INLAND AREAS WHILE MENTIONING SPRINKLES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MEASURE WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST AND FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...A TRACE
IS THE MOST WE SHOULD EXPECT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM GETTING AS WARM AS THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT GIVEN THE RISING
THICKNESS VALUES. HOWEVER...THE DAILY WARMUP WILL STILL CONTINUE...
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S. A LEFT OVER SPRINKLE NEAR
THE COAST IS POSSIBLE MON EVE...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY MON NIGHT.
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST DURING THE EVE...ALLOWING FOR DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT. LOWS
SHOULD ONLY DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT MON.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT...A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD JUST TO OUR W...
ESTABLISHING A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK
PERTURBATION IN THIS FLOW MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AT THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE DIURNAL TIMING WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
CONVECTION WHICH DOES DEVELOP UPSTREAM TO PERSIST AS IT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA...WILL INCREASE POPS TO JUST BELOW THRESHOLD FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LATER FORECASTS MAY
OPT TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR SPRINKLES...ESPECIALLY
IF THE LIFT PORTRAYED BY SOME OF THE MODELS PERSISTS. A LITTLE LESS
IN THE WAY OF THICK CLOUDS ON TUE AS COMPARED TO MON SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO EXCEED WHAT IS CONSIDERED NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAYS OF
OCT...AND THAT HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE SINCE THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL UP IN THE 70S...COOLEST AT THE COAST
DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES. THICK CLOUD COVER SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AND THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
BELOW 50 DEGREES...EVEN INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF HIGH PRESSURE ON
WEDNESDAY WILL PUT THE CENTER OF THE AIRMASS OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR SOME INFLUX OF WARMER AND HIGHER
DEWPOINT AIR. AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE MODELS HINTING
AT PERHAPS SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE EXACT TIMING OF WHICH IS NOT
VERY SOLID AMONGST VARIOUS MODELS. LOW LEVEL JETTING SEEMS TO BE THE
MAIN FORCING AND WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POPS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
ACCORD TO GFS AND EC...THE GEM IS QUITE A BIT FASTER BUT AN OUTLIER.
MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING QPF WITH A GENERAL 2
TO 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH AREA-WIDE. MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE
ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR THE POST-FRONTAL LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING CIRRUS. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY AREAS OF
GROUND FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KCRE.. CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER TO 9-12KFT
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. ASIDE FROM
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES INLAND NO SIGNIFICANT WX IS EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.
LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS LIKE THE HRRR AND RUC SUGGEST PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
WIND SPEEDS REMAINING 5 KNOTS OR LESS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1000
PM FOLLOWS...

A FRIENDLY MARINE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE AREA SLIDES EAST. SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 1.5-2 FEET THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY AND MOSTLY IN ESE WAVES EVERY 8 SECONDS WITH A VERY
LIGHT CHOP TO A SEMI-GLASSY SEA SURFACE CHARACTER INTO SUNRISE
MONDAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL
INITIALLY BRING NE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS...BUT THE WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE E AND LIKELY SE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS THE SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION DEVELOPS MON AFTERNOON. A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH SE OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES
TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS SHOULD RETURN TO NE
OVERNIGHT MON AND CONTINUE FROM THE NE OR E FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO THE
SE TUE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ESTABLISHES
ITSELF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLACK THIS PERIOD...KEEPING
WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. SEAS WILL BE 1 TO 2 FT...WITH PERHAPS SOME
3 FT SEAS DEVELOPING LATE TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST
NORTHERN WATERS AS A 9 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL SEAS ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH LIGHT...WINDS WILL
BE TURNING CLOCKWISE IN DIRECTION MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. WE THEN RATHER QUICKLY GET INTO A MODERATE RETURN
FLOW REGIME ON THURSDAY. THIS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT COULD PUSH SEAS UP TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REALM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL/TRA






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT STALL WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...AND MOVES NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER AIR AND SHOWERS. STRONG COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS
REPRESENTATIVE. POPULATED TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH LATEST SFC OBS
AND EXTRAPOLATED USING THE HRRR FOR DEWPOINTS THROUGH 09Z. KEPT
HIGH LIKELY POPS WITH UPCOMING PERIODS OF RAIN FROM THE NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...PWATS AROUND 1 INCH NOT CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE UPPER
RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT LIFTS UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE. THIS
WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WARM
FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS. INSTABILITY WANES
FOR THUNDER AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES....AND HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT
OF FORECAST. WITH THE HIGH CLOUD COVER ALREADY INCREASING FROM THE
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT...WILL KEEP MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FOR NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FROM
GETTING THE VERY DENSE FOG THAT WE HAD THIS MORNING. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD MILD TONIGHT AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY
REACHING INTO THE 60S DESPITE THE CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE SOME
BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON TO HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SYNOPTICALLY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER CWA TO START THE SHORT
TERM. HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. QUITE A
BIT OF MODEL VARIABILITY...ESPECIALLY RELATING TO TIMING OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST BRINGING MOISTURE
AND PRECIP BACK INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ECMWF IS
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD...WHILE NAM REALLY HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. ON THE NAM SIDE...THE SREF IS JUST A BIT FASTER AND MATCHES
THE ECMWF WELL...AND WILL TREND TOWARDS IT. SO HAVE A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST THURSDAY...WITH CHANCE POPS ENTERING THE WEST BY EARLY
EVENING. AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY PRETTY LIMITED PER GFS/NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TO WILL LEAVE MENTIONABLE THUNDER OUT. WITH THAT SAID...RATHER
STRONG 850 AND 925 FLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...NAM INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO 45KTS AT 925 AND PUSHING
70KTS AT 850. SO EVEN DESPITE LACK OF INSTABILITY...EVEN WEAKLY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS AND ANTICIPATE VERY
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AND EVEN OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY...WILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
PRETTY GOOD WAA HOLDING TEMPS UP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
CWA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER AROUND
09Z...BISECTING WV BY 12Z...AND EAST OF CWA BY 15Z. GFS IS FASTER
THAN THIS...BUT ANTICIPATE IT WILL SLOW DOWN SOME IN FUTURE MODEL
RUNS. TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MET IS QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN MAV
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH THE STRONG WAA TRENDED TOWARDS THE
WARMER NUMBERS. NO REAL COLD PUNCH BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL
GENERALLY 60S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL PATTERN SETS UP IN THE LONG TERM...BEHIND THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY.  SAT AND SAT EVE THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AXIS
LOCATED OVER THE AREA AROUND 00Z SUN. WITH SOME DECENT LLVL MOISTURE
AND SOME INCREASED WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH ARRIVAL...WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ZONES SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPEARS
DRY. UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH FLOW TURNING SW MON AND TUE. AS SUCH...THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH A NICE WARMUP FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PBL WINDS HAVE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO 15 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THIS FLOW COULD PREVENT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO VENTILATION. ANOTHER FOG SUPPRESSOR WILL BE THE
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE
AREA OF PCPN. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AT BKW. REMOVED IFR CONDITIONS
AT EKN PER GENTLE FLOW AND DIRECTION NOT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
FORMATION AT EKN.

IFR UNDER RIVER AND VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER...ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT PBL DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS...OUTSIDE AREAS OF RAIN.

INCREASING SHOWERS AFTER 06Z WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS THRU 14Z ACROSS THE AREA.

THEREAFTER...MVFR POST RAIN CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING
MAINLY CRW...BKW...AND HTS. WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS UP LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE...WILL GIVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AFTER 14Z...SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
EXITING...BUT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND AND A STILL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOW FAST THICKER CLOUDS MOVE IN...AND WIND.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 10/30/13
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 150 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER
AIR. STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA PER
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND HI RES MODEL TRENDS. WENT WITH CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALTHOUGH QPF
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN THE A TENTH OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTH.

630 AM UPDATE...

HAD TO NUDGE THE N EDGE OF CLD SHIELD UP THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR...PERHAPS EVEN N OF THERE PER LATEST RUC.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL LOOKING FOR SHRA ACROSS SW VA
AND SE WV TDY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT MUCH OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MID WEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS GFS
WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z...
THRU 00Z...UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS S OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SHRA EXPECTED FOR SW VA AND SRN WV THRU 00Z. EXCEPT FOR IFR FAR
SOUTH...GENERALLY KEPT MVFR GOING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH WHERE
SHOWERS OCCUR...INCLUDING BKW. ELSEWHERE...VFR. DECREASING VFR
CLOUDS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...WITH SCT CLOUDS NORTH OF A 3I2 TO
W22 LINE.

AFTER 00Z...UPPER LVL SYS EXITS THIS EVENING...TAKING SHOWERS WITH
IT BY 03Z. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA
AND S WV TONIGHT WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR/IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE...WHERE
SKIES CLEAR...ALONG AND NORTH OF A HTS-CRW-EKN LINE...BECOMING IFR
IN FOG BY 08Z.

13Z-15Z...BECOMING VFR ALL LOCATIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: FOG FORMATION HIGHLY DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N
WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/50/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1127 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013...CORRECTED FOR AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER
AIR. STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA PER
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND HI RES MODEL TRENDS. WENT WITH CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALTHOUGH QPF
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN THE A TENTH OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTH.

630 AM UPDATE...

HAD TO NUDGE THE N EDGE OF CLD SHIELD UP THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR...PERHAPS EVEN N OF THERE PER LATEST RUC.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL LOOKING FOR SHRA ACROSS SW VA
AND SE WV TDY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT MUCH OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MID WEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS GFS
WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z...
UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS S OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA EXPECTED
FOR SW VA AND SRN WV THRU 00Z. EXCEPT FOR IFR FAR SOUTH...GENERALLY
KEPT MVFR GOING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH WHERE SHOWERS
OCCUR...INCLUDING BKW. ELSEWHERE...VFR. DECREASING VFR CLOUDS THE
FARTHER NORTH YOU GO...WITH SCT CLOUDS NORTH OF A 3I2 TO W22 LINE.

UPPER LVL SYS EXITS THIS EVENING...TAKING SHOWERS WITH IT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TONIGHT
WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR/IFR CIGS. OTHERWISE JUST SOME PASSING
CIRRUS SE OH/N WV WHERE SOME LATE LIFR/IFR RVR FG MAY BE REALIZED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: OVC DECK MAY MAKE IT INTO KHTS/KCRW FOR
TDY...BUT STILL WOULD REMAIN VFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N
WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/50/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV/30












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1127 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER
AIR. STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA PER
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND HI RES MODEL TRENDS. WENT WITH CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALTHOUGH QPF
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN THE A TENTH OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTH.

630 AM UPDATE...

HAD TO NUDGE THE N EDGE OF CLD SHIELD UP THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR...PERHAPS EVEN N OF THERE PER LATEST RUC.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL LOOKING FOR SHRA ACROSS SW VA
AND SE WV TDY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT MUCH OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MID WEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS GFS
WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z...
UPR LVL SYS WILL PASS S OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHRA EXPECTED
FOR SW VA AND SRN WV THRU 00Z. KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING TYHIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR...INCLUDING BKW.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. DECREASING VFR CLOUDS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO...WITH SCT CLOUDS NORTH OF A 3I2 TO W22 LINE.

UPPER LVL SYS EXITS THIS EVENING...TAKING SHOWERS WITH IT. HOWEVER
ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TONIGHT
WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR CIGS FOR KBKW. OTHERWISE JUST SOME PASSING
CIRRUS SE OH/N WV WHERE SOME LATE LIFR/IFR RVR FG MAY BE REALIZED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: OVC DECK MAY MAKE IT INTO KHTS/KCRW FOR
TDY...BUT STILL WOULD REMAIN VFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N
WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/50/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV/30









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 1026 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER
AIR. STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA PER
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND HI RES MODEL TRENDS. WENT WITH CAT POPS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...ALTHOUGH QPF
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN THE A TENTH OF AN INCH. SUNSHINE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTH.

630 AM UPDATE...

HAD TO NUDGE THE N EDGE OF CLD SHIELD UP THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR...PERHAPS EVEN N OF THERE PER LATEST RUC.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL LOOKING FOR SHRA ACROSS SW VA
AND SE WV TDY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT MUCH OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MID WEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS GFS
WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW TO SCT 4 TO 5 THSD FT CLDS INTO MORNING HRS ALONG AND N OF I64
CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE S...HAVE OVC CONDITIONS SPREADING N THRU SW
VA INTO S WV THIS MORNING. THINK MUCH OF THESE REMAIN LOW END
VFR...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS FOR S MTNS INCLUDING KBKW. HAVE SOME
PREDAWN VLIFR RVR VALLEY FG FOR KPKB LIFTING BY 14Z.

UPR LVL SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASE IN CLDS WILL PASS S OF AREA
TDY. HOWEVER SCT SHRA EXPECTED FOR SW VA AND SE WV. KEPT MVFR
CIGS GOING TDY FOR KBKW BUT PCPN FREE. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OVC
REACHES KHTS TO KCRW TDY BUT DID INSERT BKN LOW END VFR CLDS IN
FOR TDY. JUST HAVE SOME CIRRUS SE OH/N WV FOR TDY.

UPR LVL SYS PASSES E OF AREA THIS AFTN...TAKING SHRA THREAT WITH
IT. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA AND S
WV TONIGHT WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR CIGS FOR KBKW. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS SE OH/N WV WHERE SOME LATE LIFR/IFR RVR FG MAY
BE REALIZED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: OVC DECK MAY MAKE IT INTO KHTS/KCRW FOR
TDY...BUT STILL WOULD REMAIN VFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N
WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/50/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 641 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER AIR. STRONG
COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...

HAD TO NUDGE THE N EDGE OF CLD SHIELD UP THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE
HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR...PERHAPS EVEN N OF THERE PER LATEST RUC.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL LOOKING FOR SHRA ACROSS SW VA
AND SE WV TDY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT MUCH OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MID WEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS GFS
WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW TO SCT 4 TO 5 THSD FT CLDS INTO MORNING HRS ALONG AND N OF I64
CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE S...HAVE OVC CONDITIONS SPREADING N THRU SW
VA INTO S WV THIS MORNING. THINK MUCH OF THESE REMAIN LOW END
VFR...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS FOR S MTNS INCLUDING KBKW. HAVE SOME
PREDAWN VLIFR RVR VALLEY FG FOR KPKB LIFTING BY 14Z.

UPR LVL SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASE IN CLDS WILL PASS S OF AREA
TDY. HOWEVER SCT SHRA EXPECTED FOR SW VA AND SE WV. KEPT MVFR
CIGS GOING TDY FOR KBKW BUT PCPN FREE. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OVC
REACHES KHTS TO KCRW TDY BUT DID INSERT BKN LOW END VFR CLDS IN
FOR TDY. JUST HAVE SOME CIRRUS SE OH/N WV FOR TDY.

UPR LVL SYS PASSES E OF AREA THIS AFTN...TAKING SHRA THREAT WITH
IT. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA AND S
WV TONIGHT WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR CIGS FOR KBKW. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS SE OH/N WV WHERE SOME LATE LIFR/IFR RVR FG MAY
BE REALIZED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: OVC DECK MAY MAKE IT INTO KHTS/KCRW FOR
TDY...BUT STILL WOULD REMAIN VFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N
WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 256 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MILDER AIR. STRONG
COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH A FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT THAN OTHER
MODELS...BUT MUCH OF THIS ENERGY CAN BE TRACED BACK TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK IN THE MID WEST. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS GFS
WOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL RAISE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW TO SCT 4 TO 5 THSD FT CLDS INTO MORNING HRS ALONG AND N OF I64
CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE S...HAVE OVC CONDITIONS SPREADING N THRU SW
VA INTO S WV PREDAWN. THINK MUCH OF THESE REMAIN LOW END
VFR...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS FOR S MTNS INCLUDING KBKW. HAVE SOME
PREDAWN MVFR RVR VALLEY FG FOR KPKB AND KEKN.

UPR LVL SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASE IN CLDS WILL PASS S OF AREA
TDY. HOWEVER SCT SHRA EXPECTED FOR SW VA AND SE WV. HAVE VCSH IN
KBKW TAF WITH CHC NOT THAT GREAT ATTM. KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING
THOUGH. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OVC REACHES KHTS TO KCRW TDY BUT DID
INSERT BKN LOW END VFR CLDS IN FOR TDY. JUST HAVE SOME CIRRUS SE
OH/N WV FOR TDY.

UPR LVL SYS PASSES E OF AREA THIS AFTN...TAKING SHRA THREAT WITH
IT. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA AND S
WV TONIGHT WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR CIGS FOR KBKW. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS SE OH/N WV WHERE SOME LATE LIFR/IFR RVR FG MAY
BE REALIZED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: OVC DECK MAY MAKE IT INTO KHTS/KCRW FOR
TDY...BUT STILL WOULD REMAIN VFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 10/28/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N
WV. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30











AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 239 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
OW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
BRINGS MILDER AIR AND SHOWERS BY MID WEEK. COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN FCST THINKING FROM DAY SHIFT. DID ELECT TO BUMP
UP POPS ACROSS SW VA INTO LKLY MID TO LATE MORNING PER LATEST MDL
RUNS. TIGHT POP GRADIENT WITH CHC GETTING INTO COAL FIELDS TO SE
WV...WITH NOTHING N OF THERE. ALSO LOOKING AT A TIGHT GRADIENT TO
SKY GRIDS AS WELL. WENT WITH SOLID OVC ACROSS SW VA AND S WV TDY.
HARD TO SAY IF OVC REACHES AS FAR N AT HTS TO CRW CORRIDOR. DID
ALLOW FOR BKN COVERAGE THOUGH WITH CIRRUS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV.
UPR LVL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR WX TDY SHIFT E OF CWA THIS
AFTN AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY RAMP DOWN POPS THIS AFTN ACROSS S ZONES.
ABUNDANCE OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THIS AFTN
AND A GOOD CHUNK OF THE NIGHT ACROSS S WV/SW VA...THUS KEPT
PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE LOCALES WITH SOME CIRRUS
ELSEWHERE.

INGESTED LATEST HRRR AS A BASE FOR TEMPS TDY AND
TONIGHT...TWEAKING S ZONES FOR COOLER WX PER CLDS/SHRA THREAT.
TRIED TO GO TOWARD WARMER MET ACROSS SE OH AND N WV WHERE AT LEAST
FILTERED SUN WILL BE REALIZED. SAME GENERAL THINKING HOLDS TONIGHT
AS WELL...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS SW VA AND S WV...WITH COOLER
READINGS FOR SE OH AND N WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE CWA. MONDAY NIGHT
FEATURES WEAK WAVE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST...WITH  A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...AND MAIN EFFECT WILL BE ON KEEPING OVERNIGHT
LOWS ACROSS THE SOUTH SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORTH WITH THE
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE.
MODELS VARY ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVEMENT...AND
INDIVIDUAL WAVES. NAM INDICATES A SURFACE LOW TREKKING EAST ACROSS
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY PROVIDE A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR POPS UP NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHILE 00Z
ECMWF BRINGS A WAVE STRAIGHT ACROSS THE CWA SAME TIME PERIOD. GFS
MAINLY DRY...WITH BULK OF POPS TO THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...BROAD BRUSHED POPS ACROSS CWA
DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO ANY PRECIPITATION...WARMER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGH TO THE WEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S DURING THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING WITH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH A LEANING TOWARDS THE EC/CMC PER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL QUICKLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST WITH A POTENT SYSTEM PUSHING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SFC COLD
FRONT MARCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF NWP CONSENSUS...LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE WARM WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT. PRECIP EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS ON SUNDAY YET WITH SOME
LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ROUGHLY
THE SAME LOCATIONS AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WITH EACH PASSING DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...DROPPING FROM
THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK BY
SUNDAY FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FEW TO SCT 4 TO 5 THSD FT CLDS INTO MORNING HRS ALONG AND N OF I64
CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE S...HAVE OVC CONDITIONS SPREADING N THRU SW
VA INTO S WV PREDAWN. THINK MUCH OF THESE REMAIN LOW END
VFR...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS FOR S MTNS INCLUDING KBKW. HAVE SOME
PREDAWN MVFR RVR VALLEY FG FOR KPKB AND KEKN.

UPR LVL SYS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASE IN CLDS WILL PASS S OF AREA
TDY. HOWEVER SCT SHRA EXPECTED FOR SW VA AND SE WV. HAVE VCSH IN
KBKW TAF WITH CHC NOT THAT GREAT ATTM. KEPT MVFR CIGS GOING
THOUGH. TOUGH TO SAY WHETHER OVC REACHES KHTS TO KCRW TDY BUT DID
INSERT BKN LOW END VFR CLDS IN FOR TDY. JUST HAVE SOME CIRRUS SE
OH/N WV FOR TDY.

UPR LVL SYS PASSES E OF AREA THIS AFTN...TAKING SHRA THREAT WITH
IT. HOWEVER ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SW VA AND S
WV TONIGHT WHICH MAY HOLD IN MVFR CIGS FOR KBKW. OTHERWISE JUST
SOME PASSING CIRRUS SE OH/N WV WHERE SOME LATE LIFR/IFR RVR FG MAY
BE REALIZED.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS: OVC DECK MAY MAKE IT INTO KHTS/KCRW FOR
TDY...BUT STILL WOULD REMAIN VFR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 10/28/13
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE IN RVR VALLEY FG POSSIBLE TUES MORNING ACROSS SE OH/N WV.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 651 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS
OCCURS...CEILINGS MAY BECOME NEAR IFR WITH SOME FOG/DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL.

ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST
MVFR AFTER 6Z OR SO. A FEW MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ. STORMS WOULD
THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDED TSRA
TO MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 6Z THROUGH 15Z
OR SO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT... WILL FIRST WATCH
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SOME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED PER MESOANALYSIS DESPITE THE
CLOUDINESS. RAP... HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND/OR LIFT NORTH INTO KANSAS.
WITH THIS PRIMARY FOCUS LIFTING INTO KANSAS... THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH SOME
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. DID
CONSIDER A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST... BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FALL JUST EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  72  61  71 /  40  70  50  20
HOBART OK         65  75  58  70 /  40  50  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  77  64  73 /  50  70  40  10
GAGE OK           60  75  48  68 /  40  30  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     66  73  59  67 /  60  80  60  30
DURANT OK         66  72  67  77 /  40  90  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 1052 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013

.UPDATE...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE,
KLAMATH, AND MODOC COUNTIES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET FOR
EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY JUST
A LITTLE EAST OF MOUNT SHASTA AT THE CURRENT TIME, NEAR MEDICINE
LAKE. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW AS IT PIVOTS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IS EXPECTED TO REACH LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES WITH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. PAST SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SITUATIONS
HAVE LED TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE TRANSITION SEASON IN THE
AREA THAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE NEW 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 SUPPORT AN
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION BAND IN THIS AREA. THE 02Z 3KM HRRR MODEL
INDICATED EVEN MORE PRECIPITATION THAN THESE MODELS, BUT HAS SINCE
BACKED OFF WITH ITS 03Z RUN CLOSER TO A NAM12/GFS40 CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THAT IT IS EARLY SEASON, HAS BEEN MILD LATELY, AND TOMORROW
WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK FOR MANY, DECIDED AN
ADVISORY IS WARRANTED DUE TO POTENTIAL IMPACT. WITH THIS TYPE OF
SCENARIO A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN JUST AN HOUR OR
TWO. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SUCH AS LAKEVIEW AND ALTURAS WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SNOW, BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. BTL

&&

.AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 28/00Z TAF CYCLE.

SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF STRATUS AND FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN ON
SUNDAY. THINK AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VIS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH THE UMPQUA, BUT KMFR ALSO RECEIVED RAIN,
SO IT IS POSSIBLE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY AS WELL. LITTLE TO NO RAIN
FELL ON THE EAST SIDE OR CALIFORNIA, SO CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT
ARE LESS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PROBLEMS AFFECTING AVIATION. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE CASCADES
WHICH CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES. CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT RESULTING IN OBSCURATIONS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES AND WARNERS. -WRIGHT

&&

MARINE...WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND,
MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LESSEN THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, THE FIRST MAJOR STORM IN
SEVERAL WEEKS IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INSIDE 130W NEXT WEEKEND, AND
SUCH A SCENARIO MAY PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE OREGON
WATERS IN ADDITION TO VERY HIGH SEAS. MUCH CAN CHANGE IN A WEEK`S
TIME, BUT MARINERS WITH INTERESTS OVER THE OREGON WATERS NEXT
WEEKEND SHOULD PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION AS FORECASTS ARE UPDATED THIS
WEEK. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013/

UPDATE...
AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO THE MARINE FORECAST TO LOWER WINDS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST, BUT TO INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS.

DISCUSSION...

A FRESH SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY`S LOW HAS CAUSED WAVE HEIGHTS
TO BE AS MUCH AS 3 FEET HIGH THAN MODEL EXPECTATIONS THIS EVENING.
AN UPDATE TO THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FORECAST HAS, THEREFORE,
BEEN SENT TO ADDRESS THIS.

TODAY`S COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE A BIT
ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE FORECAST AND THERE WERE EVEN A HANDFUL
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AS COLDER AIR INFILTRATED THE EAST SIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. ROAD CAMERAS THIS EVENING INDICATED A TRACE TO POSSIBLY
2 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 5000 FEET, GREATEST AT WILLAMETTE
PASS.

CURRENT RADAR AND ROAD CAMERAS INDICATE SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE AREA, CENTERED ON THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRAP-AROUND SNOWFALL ON THE EAST
SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE HRRR-3KM MODEL AND THE
GFS40 INDICATE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
AND MODOC COUNTIES INTO THE MEDICINE LAKE TO MOUNT SHASTA
HIGHLANDS. BTL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013/

SHORT TERM...A FRONT IS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS DOWN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SPREAD OVER MOST THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO BRINGING VERY BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST SIDE
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO  MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 5000 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN DOWN TO 4000 FEET
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY EXPECT
THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE FROM THE CASCADES EAST. HOWEVER AS
MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW, AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WHERE THIS IS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW, SUCH AS IN THE
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND NEAR MOUNT SHASTA, WEED AND TENNANT. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 4000 FEET TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE CASCADES AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
ON THE EAST SIDE. EASTERN MOUNTAINS, SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
AND HART MOUNTAIN, MAY SEE UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PASSES IN THE SOUTHERN OREGON
CASCADES MAY SEE AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
TONIGHT. ALSO SISKIYOU SUMMIT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT.

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY, WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF THE CASCADES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES. THEN AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

A COLD AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING COOL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. ALSO
EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EAST
OF THE CASCADES TEMPERATURES MAY LOWER INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS,
INCLUDING THE ROGUE, APPLEGATE AND ILLINOIS VALLEYS WHERE LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. IN THE UMPQUA VALLEY AS WELL AS IN THE COQUILLE AND
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COOS COAST, TEMPERATURES MAY LOWER INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

BEHIND THIS LOW, AN OFFSHORE RIDGE NUDGES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND A VERY WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVING OVER THE
RIDGE MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, MAINLY COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD VALLEY TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S
EAST OF THE CASCADES AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEST OF THE
CASCADES.


LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

THERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE MOST RECENT RUNS.
HAVE BASED THE FORECAST ON A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...BUT WITH A BIAS TOWARDS THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT IN PRODUCING WHAT WILL BE A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

THURSDAY MORNING...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST NORTH OF A CUT OFF LOW LOCATED JUST OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC...AND THE TWO WILL
BEGIN TO COME INTO PHASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS PRODUCE A
DEEPENING LOW AT THIS TIME...THE CENTER OF WHICH THEN MOVES ONSHORE
MIDDAY SATURDAY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN OREGON COAST. ALL IN
ALL...THE EVENT WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING WEEKEND FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DETAILS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS
RANGE...BUT THE AREAS ALONG THE COAST...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
RIDGE LINES...AS WELL AS THE EAST SIDE...SHOULD EXPECT VERY GUSTY
WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST RANGES AND THE CASCADES. SNOW
LEVELS COULD DROP TO BELOW 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY AS WELL. MORE DETAILS
WILL BECOME APPARENT AS THE EVENT APPROACHES THE SHORT TERM.

THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL
NOT BE FAR BEHIND. THE GFS AND EC DIFFER IN TIMING BY ABOUT 12
HOURS...BUT BOTH DO MOVE THE SYSTEM ONSHORE SOMETIME TUESDAY. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ALONG
THE WESTS SIDE AND THE CASCADES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TERM.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
RECENTLY...RETURNING TO MUCH MORE SEASONAL VALUES AND HOVERING THERE
FOR THE DURATION OF THE TERM. /BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT MONDAY ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR ORZ030-031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PDT MONDAY ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY
  FOR PZZ350-356.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
  PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
  FOR PZZ370.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ376.
- HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

BTL/TRW/CC/BPN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 943 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MOST HAVE CURRENTLY
MOVED NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE RESTRICTED THUNDER MENTION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
PWS HAVE RISEN TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
AN AREA NEAR 2 INCHES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS NOTED
ON EVENING SATELLITE DERIVED PW AND SOUNDING DATA. SHOWERS ARE
SEEN BY RADAR OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE HIGHER PW TROPICAL
AIRMASS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT
AND BE NEARING THE I-3 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE BOOSTED
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ARE MOVING
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL BE CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK
BASED ON 18Z MODELS CONSISTENCY WITH 12Z MODELS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS
OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
THIS EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE HI-RES ARW...TTU 3KM WRF AND
3KM HRRR ALL INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THUS THE KDRT TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
RISK OF BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WARM
S TO SE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THESE SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PREVAILING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DRAMATICALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED WITH
THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE KDRT TAF SITE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. IFR CONDITIONS
BY 10Z WITH -DZ/BR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR BY 20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM-BREEZY LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON...AS DEEP SLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BROUGHT WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF. THE BRISK SLY
WINDS WERE A RESULT OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING
TOWARDS/INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...WHICH WAS IN TURN LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS(STORMS FAR
WEST) AS MINOR DISTURBANCES TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
IN THE STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE(PW`S
NEAR 2 INCHES) AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD INTO THE NWRN CWA
LATE WED NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE MOMENT...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY HIGH...MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED
HPC QPF VALUES WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING
WFO`S. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SIMILAR WITH 1-2 INCH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF 281 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I10. LOCALLY
HEAVIER ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL
HANDLE WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RACES EASTWARD AND A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SPLIT UP POPS FOR MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO SHOW DECREASING POPS FROM THE WEST...CLEARING
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEST-NWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY PLEASANT
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MILD- COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AND A MOIST SWLY FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  80  72  83  53 /  30  80  80  50  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  81  72  82  47 /  30  80  80  50  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  81  70  83  49 /  30  80  80  50  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  78  67  80  49 /  30  80  80  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  82  67  84  53 /  30  40  30  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  78  70  81  47 /  30  80  80  40  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  84  72  86  50 /  20  60  70  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  70  83  49 /  30  80  80  50  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  73  83  54 /  30  80  80  60  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  84  73  85  52 /  20  70  70  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  85  73  86  53 /  20  70  70  50  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE HI-RES ARW...TTU 3KM WRF AND
3KM HRRR ALL INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THUS THE KDRT TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
RISK OF BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WARM
S TO SE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THESE SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PREVAILING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DRAMATICALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED WITH
THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE KDRT TAF SITE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. IFR CONDITIONS
BY 10Z WITH -DZ/BR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR BY 20Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM-BREEZY LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON...AS DEEP SLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BROUGHT WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF. THE BRISK SLY
WINDS WERE A RESULT OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING
TOWARDS/INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...WHICH WAS IN TURN LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS(STORMS FAR
WEST) AS MINOR DISTURBANCES TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
IN THE STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE(PW`S
NEAR 2 INCHES) AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD INTO THE NWRN CWA
LATE WED NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE MOMENT...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY HIGH...MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED
HPC QPF VALUES WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING
WFO`S. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SIMILAR WITH 1-2 INCH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF 281 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I10. LOCALLY
HEAVIER ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL
HANDLE WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RACES EASTWARD AND A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SPLIT UP POPS FOR MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO SHOW DECREASING POPS FROM THE WEST...CLEARING
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEST-NWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY PLEASANT
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MILD- COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AND A MOIST SWLY FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  80  72  83  53 /  20  80  80  50  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  81  72  82  47 /  20  80  80  50  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  81  70  83  49 /  20  80  80  50  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  78  67  80  49 /  30  80  80  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  82  67  84  53 /  30  40  30  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  78  70  81  47 /  20  80  80  40  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  84  72  86  50 /  20  60  70  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  70  83  49 /  20  80  80  50  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  73  83  54 /  20  80  80  60  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  84  73  85  52 /  20  70  70  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  85  73  86  53 /  20  70  70  50  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 153 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

INCREASED POPS AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES WITH OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS.

AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS MORNING KFCX 88D SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SCOPE. THE 12Z/8AM RNK SOUNDING INDICATED SHALLOW MOISTURE UP TO
775 MB WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWAT AT 0.55 INCHES.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SHAPED POP AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TREND.
LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE RNK WRF ARW FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/9AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. WILL START TUESDAY OFF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND...
HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL CARRY COOLER AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WHERE IT DOES OCCUR.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT WILL BE SLOWER
TO LIFT NEAR OUR AREA...AND WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN WAVES AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81. THE WARM
FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
BRINGING A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT BELIEVE THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...
AND THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...MODELS AGREE THAT THE 50+ KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ACROSS OUR
AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE WE MAY NOT OBSERVE MUCH LIGHTNING IN THE
CONVECTION...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PULL SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THE HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ALSO MEANS WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LEANED
ISC GRIDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE QUICKER
GFS SOLUTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGION IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING ANY
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. COOLING TREND EXPECTED IN THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDE ACROSS EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT MONDAY...

MVFR SCT TO BKN CLOUDS WITH POCKETS OF IFR AND LIFR IN RAIN AND
DRIZZLE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE WEST. WHILE
IN THE EAST...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL TRY AND CLEAR
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG
ESPECIALLY AT KLWB OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/KK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 1002 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT MONDAY...

THIS MORNING KFCX 88D SHOWED LIGHT RETURNS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SCOPE. THE 12Z/8AM RNK SOUNDING INDICATED SHALLOW MOISTURE UP TO
775 MB WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND PWAT AT 0.55 INCHES.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH LATEST OBS AND MODEL
TRENDS. SHAPED POP AND WEATHER WITH LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TREND.
LEANED POPS TOWARDS THE RNK WRF ARW FOR LATE THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/9AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. WILL START TUESDAY OFF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND...
HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL CARRY COOLER AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WHERE IT DOES OCCUR.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT WILL BE SLOWER
TO LIFT NEAR OUR AREA...AND WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN WAVES AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81. THE WARM
FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
BRINGING A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT BELIEVE THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...
AND THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...MODELS AGREE THAT THE 50+ KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ACROSS OUR
AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE WE MAY NOT OBSERVE MUCH LIGHTNING IN THE
CONVECTION...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PULL SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THE HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ALSO MEANS WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LEANED
ISC GRIDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE QUICKER
GFS SOLUTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGION IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING ANY
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. COOLING TREND EXPECTED IN THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDE ACROSS EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

NORTHEAST EDGE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO
VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. CEILINGS HAD DROPPED TO MVFR IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT KBCB/KROA AND KDAN BUT
THESE SITES MAY POSSIBLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 18Z/2PM.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. FARTHER NORTH KLWB AND KLYH WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE FOG AT KLWB
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...SO FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR FOG. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWERS TODAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 746 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/9AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. WILL START TUESDAY OFF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND...
HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL CARRY COOLER AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WHERE IT DOES OCCUR.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT WILL BE SLOWER
TO LIFT NEAR OUR AREA...AND WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN WAVES AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81. THE WARM
FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
BRINGING A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT BELIEVE THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...
AND THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...MODELS AGREE THAT THE 50+ KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ACROSS OUR
AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE WE MAY NOT OBSERVE MUCH LIGHTNING IN THE
CONVECTION...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PULL SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THE HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ALSO MEANS WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LEANED
ISC GRIDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE QUICKER
GFS SOLUTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGION IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING ANY
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. COOLING TREND EXPECTED IN THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDE ACROSS EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

NORTHEAST EDGE OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO
VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS. CEILINGS HAD DROPPED TO MVFR IN
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT KBCB/KROA AND KDAN BUT
THESE SITES MAY POSSIBLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 18Z/2PM.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. FARTHER NORTH KLWB AND KLYH WILL REMAIN
VFR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE FOG AT KLWB
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW FAST IT CLEARS...SO FOR NOW ONLY
INCLUDED MVFR FOG. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SHOWERS TODAY.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL
BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 518 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/9AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORKWEEK. WILL START TUESDAY OFF WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND...
HUGGING THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL CARRY COOLER AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST
SOUTH OF OUR AREA...BUT BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WHERE IT DOES OCCUR.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...BUT WILL BE SLOWER
TO LIFT NEAR OUR AREA...AND WILL THEREFORE PROVIDE THE FOCUS OF MORE
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BELIEVE THESE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN WAVES AS
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE WEST...
WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOUND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81. THE WARM
FRONT WILL FINALLY LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...
BRINGING A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT BELIEVE THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT...
AND THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST
DAY...SO FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR EARLY
FRIDAY. WHILE CAPE IS MINIMAL...MODELS AGREE THAT THE 50+ KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES ACROSS OUR
AREA...MEANING THAT WHILE WE MAY NOT OBSERVE MUCH LIGHTNING IN THE
CONVECTION...THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PULL SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. THE HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ALSO MEANS WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SPIN UP TORNADO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LEANED
ISC GRIDS TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH COLD FRONT OVER THE QUICKER
GFS SOLUTION. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE UPSLOPE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGION IN THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING ANY
UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST. COOLING TREND EXPECTED IN THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDE ACROSS EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

NORTHEAST EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. CEILINGS HAD DROPPED TO MVFR IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE KEPT
CEILINGS VFR AT KBLF/KBCB/KROA AND KDAN BUT THESE SITES MAY
POSSIBLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 18Z/2PM. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. FARTHER NORTH KLWB AND KLYH WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE FOG AT KLWB
OVERNIGHT...BUT HELD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KDAN AS THE LOW
PASSES THE AREA...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. THE
AIR MASS IS SLOWLY SATURATING AS THE LOW APPROACHES BUT THE MODELS
HOLD BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
AND TO THE SOUTH.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 453 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/9AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
AS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER GIVES WAY TO
WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHILE A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY PUSHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS TENNESSEE TOWARD OUR AREA...AND MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WENT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COOLER
FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALL JUST SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...WHILE MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAKES A PUSH FOR THE GREAT
LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL LIFTING THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY EVENING... WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION...WHICH
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE REMAINS A
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO ECMWF CONSIDERING SUCH A BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN OUT WEST. GFS/ECMWF MODEL BIAS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS TOO
FAST WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT REACHES
THE MASON DIXON LINE AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SHORTWAVES OR CLIPPERS DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

NORTHEAST EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. CEILINGS HAD DROPPED TO MVFR IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE KEPT
CEILINGS VFR AT KBLF/KBCB/KROA AND KDAN BUT THESE SITES MAY
POSSIBLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 18Z/2PM. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. FARTHER NORTH KLWB AND KLYH WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE FOG AT KLWB
OVERNIGHT...BUT HELD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KDAN AS THE LOW
PASSES THE AREA...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. THE
AIR MASS IS SLOWLY SATURATING AS THE LOW APPROACHES BUT THE MODELS
HOLD BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
AND TO THE SOUTH.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 451 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/9AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
AS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER GIVES WAY TO
WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHILE A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY PUSHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS TENNESSEE TOWARD OUR AREA...AND MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WENT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COOLER
FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALL JUST SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...WHILE MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAKES A PUSH FOR THE GREAT
LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL LIFTING THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY EVENING... WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION...WHICH
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE REMAINS A
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO ECMWF CONSIDERING SUCH A BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN OUT WEST. GFS/ECMWF MODEL BIAS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS TOO
FAST WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT REACHES
THE MASON DIXON LINE AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SHORTWAVES OR CLIPPERS DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

NORTHEAST EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. CEILINGS HAD DROPPED TO MVFR IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE KEPT
CEILINGS VFR AT KBLF/KBCB/KROA AND KDAN BUT THESE SITES MAY
POSSIBLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 18Z/2PM. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. FARTHER NORTH KLWB AND KLYH WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE FOG AT KLWB
OVERNIGHT...BUT HELD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KDAN AS THE LOW
PASSES THE AREA...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. THE
AIR MASS IS SLOWLY SATURATING AS THE LOW APPROACHES BUT THE MODELS
HOLD BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
AND TO THE SOUTH.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 449 AM EDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO A LOW IN
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING...WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 515 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WAS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND WAS THE LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

AS SURFACE DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S AND THE AIR MASS
SATURATES...THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION GOES UP BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME RAIN FOR TODAY BUT HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME.
LOCAL WRF AND RAP GUIDANCE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER 13Z/7AM.

CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE RAIN. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOWED LEADING EDGE ALREADY UP TO A BLUEFIELD TO DANVILLE
LINE. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THIS SOUTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. USED A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED
MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK
AS RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER GIVES WAY TO
WEAK RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHILE A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY PUSHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW AROUND A BROAD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAKE FOR WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS TENNESSEE TOWARD OUR AREA...AND MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH SPRINKLES FURTHER EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERS FROM THE NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN A EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WENT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COOLER
FLOW OFF OF THE ATLANTIC. WILL ALSO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALL JUST SOUTH
OF OUR AREA...WHILE A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS BEGINS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT...WHILE MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY TO PASS ACROSS OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SOUTHERLY DURING THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST MAKES A PUSH FOR THE GREAT
LAKES.

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL LIFTING THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES BY EVENING... WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP
THE FRONT ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW...WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION...WHICH
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE REMAINS A
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. LEANING TOWARDS A SLOWER
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSER TO ECMWF CONSIDERING SUCH A BLOCKY
FLOW PATTERN OUT WEST. GFS/ECMWF MODEL BIAS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS TOO
FAST WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WARM FRONT REACHES
THE MASON DIXON LINE AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. KEPT POPS BELOW LIKELY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SHORTWAVES OR CLIPPERS DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT MONDAY...

NORTHEAST EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WAS ADVANCING EAST INTO VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS. CEILINGS HAD DROPPED TO MVFR IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

MODELS TRACK THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS. GUIDANCE KEPT
CEILINGS VFR AT KBLF/KBCB/KROA AND KDAN BUT THESE SITES MAY
POSSIBLY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE 18Z/2PM. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE. FARTHER NORTH KLWB AND KLYH WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE FOG AT KLWB
OVERNIGHT...BUT HELD OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KDAN AS THE LOW
PASSES THE AREA...BUT NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IS EXPECTED. THE
AIR MASS IS SLOWLY SATURATING AS THE LOW APPROACHES BUT THE MODELS
HOLD BEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
AND TO THE SOUTH.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT SOMETIME ON THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS AND GUSTY WIND.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY PLACE
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/RAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 320 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...INCLUDING
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
ROTATING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME ENERGY BEING SPUN OFF THE LOW WHICH IS EJECTING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. LOOKS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE OUT THAT WAY AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
RECENTLY OVER NEVADA AND EARLIER IN UTAH FROM THAT ENERGY MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR DENVER...OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
UTAH...NORTH THROUGH IDAHO AND UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. VERY
ESTABLISHED NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...ALL THE
WAY TO RAWLINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM
SOUTH OF DENVER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS NORTHEAST FLOW AND DENSE
STRATUS...STILL ONLY 26 HERE AT CHEYENNE...28 AT DOUGLAS AND LOW
30S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.

WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. DO NOT
THINK THAT WILL CHANGE ANY AS THE RUC SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING. WELL ESTABLISHED FREEZING DRIZZLE PROFILES PERSIST
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY GOING AS SCHEDULED. COULD GET PRETTY NASTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF BLACK ICE ACROSS OUR CWA EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

BY MID TUESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
STRATUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT THE
DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD EASE AS TEMPERATURE RISE.
STILL...A COOL DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
40S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRATUS.

FINALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
LOW. GFS PAINTING A .6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BACK TO CHEYENNE. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 0.4
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY EXTENDING UP INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...ONLY A LITTLE LIGHTER ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. USING NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS ALL SNOW WHILE
THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH WARMER SCENARIO. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
TRY TO NAIL DOWN A GOOD LOCATION FOR THE BANDING PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WOULD THINK WE WOULD NEED AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OUT FOR THE AREA ONCE THE AREA HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED...MAYBE EVEN A SHORT FUSED WARNING IF THE GFS QPF
FORECAST COMES TRUE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW DECENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC GAP WIND CASE WITH 700MB WINDS
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY WINDY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
TOO MUCH THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS
AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKYS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ADDITION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES...ONLY INCREASED POP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

A PROLONGED IFR/LIFR EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...MAINLY EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE INCLUDING KCYS AND ALL OF
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM AIR WILL OVERRUN MUCH COLDER
UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE INTO TONIGHT PRODUCING FREEZING
FOG...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT
TIMES. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS AND VIS...ICING WILL BE A
CONCERN AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS WITHIN THE LOW CIGS. FURTHER WEST
NEAR KRWL AND KLAR...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS LIKELY NEAR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE AROUND 21Z...BUT DENSE FOG AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AROUND SUNSET ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY WITH AIRCRAFT ICING
REMAINING A BIG CONCERN TONIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES. THEREFORE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW EXITS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101-102-
     106>108-117>119.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101-106-107-
     117>119.

NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR
NEZ002-003-095-     096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB













AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 413 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SOME LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR
RAIN/SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE WILL SHIFT
AREA OF MENTIONING CHANCE POPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...OVER THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
STILL...QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW MAINLY OVER 1000 FT ELEVATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR A TIME BEFORE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS LATE IN THE
DAY. WITH SOME EXPECTED LATE DAY SUN...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD END
UP AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT SOME RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT
NIGHTS.

HALLOWEEN LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT WET DAY ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ON THE 295K SURFACE. QPF LOOKS TO BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...BUT THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN AREAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MENTION LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS BY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE MORE INTERMITTENT FROM AROUND SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS COUNTY EASTWARD TO LITCHFIELD CT. IT WILL AT LEAST BE
MILD...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S EVEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
INCREASES.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING A
970-975 MB SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA
FRIDAY MORNING.

AS IS TYPICALLY SEEN WITH SUCH A STRONG STORM...THE WIND FIELD ALOFT
IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE INTENSE WITH A 60+ KT 850 MB SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
JET MOVING OVER OUR REGION. BASED ON CLIMO...THE PARENT STORM LOOKS
TO TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PROLONGED STRONG
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR
SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING STRONG WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENT
INITIALLY DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR MIXING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY...HOWEVER SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG
WINDS. ALSO...THE REST OF THE AREA INCLUDING VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
HAVE A TIME WINDOW FOR STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SHOWING GOOD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AND EVEN
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WATCHES FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE STRONG
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...RAINFALL ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE CLOSE TO TWO
INCHES MAY FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED...SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SPIKE EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ONCE DEEPER MIXING OCCURS BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MOHAWK AND
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE WARMTH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDY CONDITIONS THOUGH.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THERE COULD BE A
FEW LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN...TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH IT. AT
THE SURFACE...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OFF THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHILE A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS. HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
CRESTING OVER THE REGION MONDAY...THEN SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUESDAY.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH RIDGING IN CONTROL AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TOWARD SEASONABLE LEVELS SATURDAY. HOWEVER ON
SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP RESULTING
IN BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL USHER IN EVEN
COLDER AIR. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH
LOWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DROPPING INTO THE 20S WITH TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. THE LAST TIME
WE HAD WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WAS BACK IN EARLY APRIL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON TUESDAY
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/THURSDAY. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS RATHER
LIMITED AND ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. OVERALL CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION OF SHOWERS
IN TAFS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL END BY LATE MORNING AS THE
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CLOUDS COVER WILL DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS IN.

CALM WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST AT KALB AND
KPOU...WESTERLY AT KPSF AND SOUTHERLY AT KGFL BY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. DEFINITE RA.
FRI: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. DEFINITE SHRA.
FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
MORNING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
WIND TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 50 TO 60
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH ON THURSDAY...WITH MINIMUM VALUES ONLY AROUND
65 TO 75 PERCENT.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH
LESS THAN 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. OVERALL RIVER
AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT...IS EXPECTED FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING.

A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED. AS OF NOW...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND RECENT DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE HYDRO
PROBLEMS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR TWO INCHES. THIS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

08Z water vapor imagery shows the closed low slowly moving east
towards the central Rockies. At the surface, an inverted trough has
bisected the forecast areas east to west with warm moist air across
east central KS and cooler air moving into north central KS. Fog
this morning has been a bigger problem along and north of the warm
front across central MO, but there has been some narrow band of
dense fog reported near the cold front in north central KS.

Today and Tonight continue to look wet as occasional pieces of
energy eject out of the base of the closed upper low through the day
today while the main upper level trough propagates east late tonight
bringing the strongest forcing so far across eastern KS. There
remains plenty of moisture along and east of the surface trough so
occasional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. Given the
amount of moisture, rainfall is likely to be moderate or even heavy
at times and think an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is likely
across east central and parts or northeast KS. Considered the need
for a flood watch. But with flash flood guidance for one hour around
1.7 inches or better and the lack of any response to yesterday`s
rainfall by the rivers, confidence in widespread flooding is not
high enough for a watch at this point. If heavy rainfall occurs
today and sets the stage for later tonight as the stronger forcing
lifts out, then a watch may be needed. The potential for severe
weather appears to be conditional on whether the low clouds break up
and allow for stronger destabilization of the boundary layer. While
we can`t rule out severe weather due to the strong deep layer shear,
cloud cover and the expected elevated nature of the storms could
minimize the severe weather potential. Any stronger storms may be
able to produce some hail or strong winds. Temps today could be
tricky because of the surface trough/front and where it ends up.
With the model consensus keeping the boundary somewhere in north
central KS, have lowered highs into the middle and upper 50s, but
expect a strong gradient in temps with highs around 70 or in the
lower 70s across eastern KS. However do not anticipate a strong
diurnal change due to overcast skies and occasional precip. The cold
front should begin to push southeast late tonight as the upper
trough moves across the state. Because of this trended lows across
north central KS down to around 40, and think east central KS could
still be in the upper 50s ahead of boundary.

Wolters

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Models are in agreement that the arrival and passage of the
main...over northwest Oklahoma at 12z Thu...will be later than
previous runs with an east/northeast track as it ejects out into the
lower Mo valley through the day. This should result not only in a
slower end to precip chances across most of the cwa on Thursday than
earlier models runs...but also higher chances further north and west
through midday and afternoon. Will end precip chances by 1 pm
generally west of an Emporia to Hiawatha line and continue low pops
to the east through most of the afternoon. With veering winds and
drier air working eastward across the cwa below 5 kft through the
day...will only carry isolated thunder potential in the morning.
Still expect dry conditions across the entire cwa by late afternoon
with skies becoming mostly sunny west to east through the day. This
should help temps recover into the upper 50s northeast to lower 60s
south by mid afternoon.

Will continue to maintain a dry fcst Thursday night on through the
weekend as the cwa remains in weak ridging in between the eastern
and western CONUS troughs over the eastern and western CONUS. Highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s still look on track for the weekend.
With clouds and shower chances increasing early next week with the
approach of the next upper trough...highs in the middle and upper
50s should be the rule.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

The frontal boundary has moves through TOP and FOE shifting the
winds to the west and dropping the surface dewpoint. Because of
this CIGS have improved to MVFR and VSBY is P6SM. With the RAP and
HRRR showing a northwest wind persisting until about 12Z, have
amended the forecast to reflect the better VSBY. CIGS may try to
come back down, but think they will stay above 500 FT.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 131 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

Tonight through Wednesday ....

As of 20z, water vapor imagery showed the mid-level low still
stalled out and spinning over the Great Basin region, resulting in a
deep mid-level trough stretching southward west of the Rockies with
a weak, broad ridge extending across much of the central and eastern
U.S.  With this mid-level pattern, a southwesterly flow has
persisted across the region resulting in substantial moisture
advection into the Southern and Central Plains. This deep moisture
has led to the region remaining blanketed under overcast skies all
through today with a few isolated light rain showers and periods of
drizzle. Surface low pressure has moved into central Kansas with the
stationary front stretching across central and east central Kansas.
Locations south of this boundary with southeasterly winds have been
able to have high temperatures creep into the middle 60s while
locations north of the boundary with winds generally out of the east
have remained fairly unchanged through the day in the upper 50s/low
60s.

Model soundings continue to show the mid levels of the atmosphere
drying out during the evening hours with saturation in the
low-levels still present. As a result, could continue to see periods
of drizzle developing through the evening hours. Overnight the low
and mid-level jet begins to ramp up over the region and
significantly increases by Wednesday morning with southwesterly
500MB winds reaching upwards of 55-65kts. This increasing jet will
bring additional moisture into the region, resaturating the moisture
profiles and supporting the development of additional precipitation
for Wednesday. With this increasing moisture and light winds in the
vicinity of the stationary boundary across northeast Kansas, will
likely see some areas of fog develop through the overnight hours
into Wednesday morning. As for low temperatures, these overcast
skies will limit the amount of cooling that can occur with
temperatures remaining fairly unchanged in the middle 50s to lower
60s.

For Wednesday, the focus is on the potential for any strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop as the mid-level trough finally
begins to progress eastward across the Rockies through the day.
Models show very substantial 0-6km bulk shear in place over the
region, increasing to upwards of 55-65kts by the afternoon.
Soundings show that most of the shear is unidirectional out of the
southwest, but there could be some slight veering of winds close to
the surface as winds may be more out of the south. The potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon may be
highly dependent upon whether or not we can get any breaks in the
extensive cloud cover to enhance the daytime heating and instability
over the region. If temperatures are able to warm up into the low
70s we could see MU CAPE values reaching into the 1000-1500 J/kg
range. This instability combined with the sufficient wind shear
could support the development of some stronger storms possibly
organizing into more of a squall line, with the primary threats being
large hail and strong winds. An additional concern with this
activity will be the potential for some heavy rainfall. Several
locations received an inch or more of rain Monday night/early
Tuesday morning. Models have the next round of showers and
thunderstorms entering into the forecast area early Wednesday
morning with periods of scattered activity likely persisting through
the day. With the deep moisture in place, models have PWAT values
upwards of 1 to 1.5 inches by the afternoon hours. As a result, will
need to keep an eye out for any localized flooding that may occur
with the additional precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

Wednesday Night through Thursday...An upper level trough across the
central and southern high plains will move east across Kansas
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A squall line will most
likely be in progress along the front cold front. The primary hazard
during the early evening hours will be damaging winds as the 700MB
winds increase to 50 KTS ahead of the approaching H5 trough. Once
storms become elevated during the mid and late evening hours the
damaging winds threat should decrease. Some of the stronger updrafts
within the line may produce quarter size hail. The line of storms
will move Southeast of the CWA after midnight. Post frontal showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours
of Thursday until the upper level trough shifts east of the CWA.
Isentropic down-glide on the back side of the departing H5 trough
will cause skies to clear from west to east across the CWA during
the afternoon hours of Thursday. Highs on Thursday will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday Night through Sunday...Northwest flow aloft late this week
will transition to southwesterly flow aloft as another upper level
trough deepens across the western CONUS early next week. Expect dry
conditions with Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows
will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...Southerly low-level flow will advect
deeper moisture northward across the plains. Isentropic lift along
with minor H5 troughs ejecting out into plains may provide a chance
for showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. The best chance
for showers and thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday as the main
trough moves east into the southern and central plains and a
stronger cold front moves southeast across western KS. Highs will
continue in the upper 50s to lower 60s, due to cloud cover and
periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 131 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

The frontal boundary has moves through TOP and FOE shifting the
winds to the west and dropping the surface dewpoint. Because of
this CIGS have improved to MVFR and VSBY is P6SM. With the RAP and
HRRR showing a northwest wind persisting until about 12Z, have
amended the forecast to reflect the better VSBY. CIGS may try to
come back down, but think they will stay above 500 FT.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1239 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WITH 1230AM UPDATE...SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...AS WELL AS DOWNGRADING CHANCE POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE RIDGES. 00Z RUN OF
THE HRRR SHOWED THERE MAY NOT BE ANY POPS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...AND WILL FURTHER EVALUATE REST OF 00Z MODEL SUITE TO
DETERMINE IF ALL POPS CAN BE REMOVED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A SHRTWV IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN UPR...AND MID LVL
CLDINESS ACRS MUCH OF THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION TNGT. DRY AIR IN
THE LLVL WL PRECLUDE MUCH OF A PCPN CHC...ALTHOUGH SLGT CHC NMBRS
WERE MAINTAINED FOR SOME AREAS S OF I 70 EARLY ON WED WHEN COOLING
WL HELP IMPROVE THE RH PROFILE TO THE N OF A WARM FRONT POISED OVR
ACRS CNTL APPALCHIA AND THE MID ATLANTIC.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEA IS TO BE MAINTAINED ON WEDNESDAY VIA A WEAK
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES BLDG IN THE WAKE OF THAT DISTURBANCE. WARM NR
TERM TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING A BLEND OF MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. LIKELY POPS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WITH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THE WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS
THURSDAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BECOME QUITE MILD BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
CAT POPS FOR SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO MENTION
OF THUNDER HAS BEEN LEFT OUT.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AHEAD OF AND WITH THE
COLD FRONT FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH OVER 30 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
INVERSION ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS TO KEEP STRONGER WINDS JUST
ALOFT FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MILD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO NEW ENGLAND TWO SEPARATE
SHORTWAVES WITH REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEKEND. AS THE COLD AIR COMES IN WITH A SHORTWAVE SATURDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AND A BIT OF FLOW OFF THE LAKES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND COOL CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVES EAST INTO TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPD THRU WED AS MID AND HIGH LVL CLDS MOVE ACRS THE
RGN. SOME STRATOCU IS EXPD FOR ZZV AND MGW WED AS A WRMFNT BEGINS
TO PUSH N INTO THE TN/OH VLY RGN...ALTHOUGH CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL INCRS LT WED NGT AND THU AS A WRMFNT
LIFTS N. A STG CDFNT WL FOLLOW THU NGT INTO FRI MRNG WITH RSTRNS
AND LLVL WIND SHEAR LIKELY. RSTRNS WL REMAIN PSBL THRU SAT AS AN
UPR LVL TROF CROSSES THE GT LKS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 447 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RDG IN THE PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF CUTOFF LO OVER THE WRN CONUS. AREA OF -SN/-RA OVER UPR
MI RELATED TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K SFCS /ABOUT H85-7/
ON WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING THRU THE NE CONUS IS TENDING TO
DIMINISH W-E EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR CNVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS FM THE
PLAINS. MORE PCPN...MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA...IS LINGERING OVER NW WI
CLOSER TO MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB AND S OF A
PRONOUNCED DRY LYR BTWN H8-85 DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THERE IS
ANOTHER AREA OF LO PRES IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN TROF.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LINGERING POPS THIS MRNG
ASSOCIATED WITH 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THEN SURGE OF MORE
PCPN LATER TNGT TIED TO LO PRES NOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE SCENTRAL
PLAINS.

TODAY...PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K
SFCS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB WL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLD -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG MAINLY OVER THE SRN TIER.
BUT UNDER THE INCRSG LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC RELATED TO
DNVA AHEAD OF THE RDG...THIS PCPN SHOULD FADE THIS MRNG. AS THE LLVL
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE DVLPG LO TO THE SW...THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR WITH PWAT APRCHG 1 INCH TOWARD 00Z WL SUPPORT
A RETURN OF CHC POPS AGAIN OVER THE W. ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER DYNAMIC
FORCING WITH JUST WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC UNDER UPR CNVGC SHOULD
LIMIT THE COVERAGE/PCPN AMNTS. DESPITE CLDY SKIES...THE STEADY LLVL
WAD WL BRING A WARMER DAY TO THE CWA...WITH HI TEMPS LATER REACHING
WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE 50S OVER THE SRN TIER. SO ANY
PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA.

TNGT...AS UPR JET CORE STREAKS NEWD OUT OF ROCKIES TROF MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS...MODELS INDICATE AREA OF UPR DVGC IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET WL STREAK NEWD THRU THE UPR LKS LATE TNGT. IN
CONCERT WITH PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT LIFTS PWAT OVER AN
INCH /OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL/...GOING FCST SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS
ARRIVING FM THE SW LOOKS ON TRACK. BEST CHC FOR THE HEAVIER RA WL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E...WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST HIER. THERE SHOULD
BE LTL IF ANY TEMP DROP TNGT...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTER AIR...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CONUS TO END THE WEEK. TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCED OVER THESE AREAS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG JET ENERGY IN NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND...150+
KT JET LIFTS ACROSS THE CANADAIAN MARITIMES USHERING THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER ROUND OF TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS MIDDLE CONUS BY END OF THE LONG TERM.

MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH GETS GOING TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...
DEEPENS TO A SUB 985MB LOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT EXITS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD QUEBEC. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON NOSE OF 130+ KT JET CORE ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS...PREFER
DEEPER AND A FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW FOR DAYTIME ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR
TO ECMWF AND LOCAL REGIONAL-WRF. GEM-NH LOOKS SIMILAR AS WELL...AT
LEAST UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. EXPECT SWATH OF RAIN TO SWEEP MAINLY OUT
OF NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN SHOWERS UNTIL
AT LEAST MID-LATE AFTN. FORECAST GETS RATHER TRICKY BY THIS POINT.
UNCERTAINTY COMES IN AS PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SECONDARY JET STREAK. LIKELY WILL SEE INTIAL
SFC LOW FADE AWAY AS BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT REGROUPS VCNTY OF LK
MICHIGAN. LIKE THE UKMET /GEM-NH IDEA WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING TO
LESS THAN 990MB VCNTY OF CNTRL LK MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. ECMWF IS ON
THIS TRACK NOW AS WELL...SHIFTING AWAY FM A WEAKER LOW VCNTY OF
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NAM SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTHWEST AND TOO DEEP...PERHAPS SUFFERING FM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. MSLP CENTER MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE WIND FCST
WHICH WILL BE A MESS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY WHEN EXACT
TRACK OF SFC LOW IS APPARENT. PRIMARY IMPACT ON WEATHER IS THE NON
NAM IDEA OPENS DOOR FOR FARTHER WEST JET STREAK/DIVERGENCE AND ALSO
SFC-H85 TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS LATER THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING ROUGHLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA. STILL COULD BE SOME TSRA AS
WELL AS EASTERN CWA IS ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND ON
NOSE OF H5-H3 DRY SLOT POKING IN FM SOUTH WHICH WOULD STEEPEN THE
LAPSE RATES.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAILY TEMPS SINCE THE 12TH OF OCTOBER. TEMPS THAT START TO SLOWLY
RISE TONIGHT CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY FROM JUST
ADVECTION ALONE AS SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY AND MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HIGHER DWPNTS AND SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS POINT TO FOG
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY LATE DAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG...THOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS ARRIVE TO GET RID OF IT COMPLETELY.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FM UPR LAKES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MSLP DOWN BLO 980MB AT THIS POINT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS NW WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. IF LOW TRENDS
ANY FARTHER WEST...WOULD LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE SUCH A DEEP LOW...COLD AIR ARRIVAL FOR FRIDAY
MORNING LAGGING MORE THAN PREVIOUS MODELS HAVE INDICATED. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES STAYING ABOVE 1300M AND H85 TEMPS STAYING WARMER THAN
-4C INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WEST WITH RAIN OVR THE
CNTRL AND EAST. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ALSO SUPPORT IDEA OF MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW FOR MOST OF CWA. A BIT MORE COOLING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H85
TEMPS -4C TO -6C. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE
COMES THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. IF IT WAS COLDER WOULD BE MORE
CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY LOOKING AT
DELTA T/S 12-14C WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SFC
TEMPS STILL MARGINALLY COLD TOO WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S AT THE TIME THE STRONGEST LARGER SCALE LIFT IS OCCURRING.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE AT
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING IS NOT AS
SUPPORTATIVE BY THAT TIME. GENERALLY...SEEMS THAT THE MARGINALLY COLD
AIRMASS IS GOING TO PUT CRIMP IN EXTENT OF SNOW FROM THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

TROUGHING/COOLER AIR STICKS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR FIRST FM THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN EVENTUALLY FM THE NORTH ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S OVER 15C/ WILL KEEP LK EFFECT GOING. ANY LK
EFFECT WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMING MORE
ANTICYLONIC LEADS TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS...LESS
CONVERGENCE...AND MARGINAL MOISTURE BLO INVERSION. ANY LINGERING LK
EFFECT WILL FINALLY CUT OUT OF PICTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGER
SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

ON TO THE FAR REACHES OF THE LONG TERM. INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THERE THAT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SLOWER
YET...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH REGION UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS MUCH WETTER SCENARIO AS IT HAS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME CONSISTENCY FM EACH
OF THESE MODELS...SO A CONSENSUS WILL HOLD FOR NOW. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX OF BOTH FOR PYTPE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
FCST PERIOD UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WED EVENING...WHICH COULD LOWER CIGS DOWN TO IFR...
ESPECIALLY AT SAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE MSLP PATTERN REMAINS AS
FORECAST...ONLY WOULD BE A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SEEING GALES DURING
THIS TIME. IF THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST...EVEN JUST SLIGHLY...THE
CHANCE OF GALES WILL INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS STAY UP TO
25 KTS INTO SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BREAK IN STRONGER WINDS ONLY BRIEF THOUGH WITH
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS BY MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 251 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Several forecast challenges exist over the next 30 hours, primarily
ongoing dense fog, precipitation amounts and timing, and the
potential for severe weather.

As of this morning, a surface warm front was slowly moving
northward, currently situated just north of I-70. To the north of
this boundary, areas of dense fog continue to persist with
visibilities a half mile or less and very low ceilings. To the south,
conditions steadily improve with southward extent with a seasonably
warm and humid airmass advecting into the area. The pattern and
short-term model guidance supports areas of dense fog along and north
of the boundary through 14Z. Will continue to carry dense fog
advisory and remove counties from south to north as conditions
improve largely tied to the warm frontal position.

Attention turns to large upper trough beginning to emerge into the
Plains states. At the surface, a cold front currently located from
Omaha to Wichita will remain nearly stationary throughout the day in
response to pressure falls to the west. The forecast area will find
itself within the warm sector, with dewpoints steadily increasing
into the lower to middle 60s. As the nose of a 100kt upper jet
approaches the region, widespread convection is expected to develop
along the boundary and warm sector as strong large scale ascent
occurs. Convective-resolving models support synoptic scenario with
convection initially developing over eastern Kansas by mid morning
and spreading northeastward/additional development over the forecast
area. Extensive cloud cover should preclude strong boundary layer
destabilization. However, model guidance has been progressively
higher with regards to elevated instability in advance of said
mid-morning convection. Current RAP MUCAPE analysis has 500-1000
J/kg over much of the CWA. Expect similar or slightly higher MUCAPE
values to proceed initial convection. With 1-6km bulk shear values of
50kts expected, ample support for organized storms will exist. The
biggest question is whether sufficient instability will remain
available for initial activity. The highest probability for robust
convection will be across the west/southwest quarter of the CWA,
generally KC Metro and south/west, where an initial round of strong
to severe weather may be possible between 8am to 1pm. The primary
threat would be hail to quarter-size and possibility any wind gust
that can reach the surface through the near-surface stable layer.

As the upper trough begins to move further into the Plains this
afternoon and evening, the surface cold front will begin to shift
eastward into far northwestern Missouri during the late afternoon
hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected as this
occurs with large scale ascent still in place and surface forcing
increases. While wind shear will be supportive of organized
convection, degree of instability is much more in question. At this
time, do not expect much severe weather unless better atmospheric
recovery can take place following earlier anticipated convection.
The highest probability for a few stronger storms should be tied to
near the boundary over the far western CWA, with a decreasing
probability with eastward extent. Regardless, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much of the area from the evening
into Thursday morning. Will continue post-frontal precipitation
chances into Thursday afternoon as the base of the trough passes
through the forecast area, prior to upper downglide. With modest
lapse rates, could still see some embedded thunder in this activity
as well.

As for additional precipitation totals now through Thursday
afternoon, another 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. As
mentioned above, a very moist airmass remains in place for this time
of year. Precipitable water values between 1.25-1.5 inches is
roughly two standard deviations above PW climatology, suggesting
robust convection will be efficient rainfall producers. With the
relatively quick storm speed and flash flood rainfall guidance, the
overall threat from flash flooding should be low outside of urban
centers. Will monitor river levels and subsequent response as the
event progresses.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to ridging across the
central CONUS this weekend, allowing for near to slightly above
normal temperatures by Sunday and dry, quiet conditions across the
region through early next week. The primary focus in the long range
forecast period will be a deepening trough over the western U.S.
early next week, which could move into the region by Tuesday.
Precipitation with this system should again spread over a fairly
long period of time with a surface boundary stretching up into the
region on Monday, warm-sector precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and frontal precipitation possibly stretching into
early Wednesday. Currently, the most likely timeframe for rainfall
will be on Tuesday night, but changes in timing are likely as the
system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

A warm front will remain stalled across northern Missouri through
the morning hours, likely keeping the LIFR low ceilings and
visibilities in place at STJ through mid-morning. Expectations are
that showers will begin to replace the drizzle and fog through the
later half of the morning hours with widespread thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours. Conditions might improve above the IFR category
currently forecast for the afternoon hours with the thunderstorms,
but given abundant moisture and lift ahead of the cold front that
will push through late Wednesday night, confidence is not high enough
to improve conditions.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-
     102>104.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>024-028>031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Cutter







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 409 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

ALOFT: THE FLOW REMAINS SW BETWEEN THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND A RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CO MOVING NE. THE
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME MOBILE TODAY-TONIGHT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE E PACIFIC. THE REMNANTS WILL MOVE THRU HERE AS
A POSITIVE TILT TROF THU. IN THE MEANTIME...THE TAIL OF THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING.

SURFACE: A WEAK BUT WELL-DEFINED 1013 MB LOW WAS OVER THE SE
CORNER OF NEB AND MOVING AWAY. THE STALLED FRONT HAS PIVOTED
CYCLONICALLY AS THIS LOW MOVED BY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT IS
NOW DOWN TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A NEW LEE-SIDE LOW WAS NEAR
PUEBLO. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE PUEBLO AREA...BUT
LIKELY SHED MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS UP THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...BUT THEN SINK SE TONIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE LOWS DEEPENS OVER IA AND HEADS FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

EARLY THIS MORNING: THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND
STRENGTHENED TO 35 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROF.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z DODGE CITY SOUNDING WAS VERY WARM AND DRY /+18
AT 850 MB WITH A 37C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION/. THE N PLATTE SOUNDING
HAD A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AT 700 MB. THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
NOTHING DEVELOPED UNTIL 08Z OVER NE KS. WE ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO SEE INCREASING RETURNS OVER SW NEBRASKA...BUT THEY APPEAR
STRONGLY FORCED IN AN AREA OF STABILITY.

THE 07Z HI-RES RAP SUGGESTS THIS AREA COULD EXPAND A LITTLE AND
THAT COULD BE IT AS IT RACES NE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 13Z. ALL
THAT WOULD BE LEFT IS A FEW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL KS AND POSSIBLY SOME
REDEVELOPMENT FROM HEBRON-BELOIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LEAVES
MOST OF THE DAY CLOUDY AND QUITE WITH PATCHY FOG.

TODAY: CLOUDY AND CHILLY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE JUST A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SHWR OR TWO...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH TEMPS WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD CURRENT TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS TO NUDGE TEMPS UP JUST A LITTLE
FROM CURRENT VALUES.

MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A TOUGH PROPOSITION WHEN THERE ARE NO CLEAR
SKIES ANYWHERE AROUND...BUT BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB
TROF/FRONT...DECREASING CLOUDS SEEMS REASONABLE TONIGHT.

THUNDER: BASED ON SREF MUCAPE OF 500-900 J/KG...A MENTION OF SMALL
HAIL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. PART OF MITCHELL COUNTY KS IS
OUTLOOKED FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF 1" HAIL.

TONIGHT: WENT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BUT THE UPPER TROF WILL
STILL BE TO THE W. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR COMPLETELY.
AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WHISKED AWAY BY NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM. FOR NOW AM
EXPECTING NOT MUCH MORE THAN GROUND FOG WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR
VISIBILITIES /3-5 MI/. LOW TEMPS WERE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED GFS
MOS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
12Z THURSDAY...AND THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING EAST AND SUBSIDENCE SETTLING IN...CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...GUIDANCE FROM THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGEST MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO
THE AREA AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
THE EC SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE COULD BECOME COOL ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...AND
SUCH AS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WILL B E OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

REST OF TONIGHT: IFR CIGS AND CURRENTLY VFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED TO
DECAY TOWARD DAWN. AN ISOLATED SHWR OR TSTM IS POSSIBLE LATE. N
WINDS WITH DECREASE AND BECOME VARIABLE.

WED: HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS CONTINUING...BUT VSBY
IS AN UNKNOWN. SOME LATE DAY IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD ORGANIZE FROM THE NNW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

WED EVENING: UNCERTAIN. BUT LIGHT PRES GRADIENT AND REMAINING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE THREATEN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOR/STRATUS.

CIG CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
VSBY CONFIDENCE: VERY LOW
WIND CONFIDENCE: HIGH
WX CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 332 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

A 700MB WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB THIS MORNING TRIGGERING
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE
STRONG...NEAR 50 KT FROM 850MB TO 700MB ON THE KGLD RADAR AND
AROUND 40 KT ON THE KFTG RADAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING 850MB TO 700MB AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL. SFC
OBS ACROSS WRN NEB SUGGEST JUST SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES COULD
GET FREEZING RAIN WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH UNDERGO WEAK SCOURING.

THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING...FROM KIML NORTHEAST THROUGH KVTN AND THE
NAM TSTM PROBABILITY SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. NOTE THE KGLD VWP IS FILLING UP WITH RETURNS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS CAPTURE THIS BUT
SHOW QUITE A SPREAD IN RAIN COVERAGE. SINCE THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT IS FILLING UP ACROSS WRN THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
FARTHER EAST...ECHOS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. THE SREF IS VERY GENEROUS
WITH THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE THE RAP IS QUITE DRY SHOWING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF QPF. A FULL MULTIMODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS AND QPF
BUT STILL PRODUCES 1/10 OR AN INCH OR LESS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA. EITHER WAY THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FEATURE IS THE HEAVILY ADVERTISED "CLEARING" FORECAST BY
ALL MODELS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC
FORCING TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FROM THE FRONT RANGE EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE WPC KEEPS A
STATIONARY FRONT PINNED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND LIFTS THAT FRONT EAST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY MORNING ONCE THE
SFC LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE FCST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL. FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS NO
CHOICE BUT TO BLEND A MULTIMODEL SOLN FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ONE
CAVEAT. THE NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FOG
BANK SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FOG
SHOULD SPREAD TO NEAR NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 BUT NO FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THE PROPENSITY FOR THE NAM TO USE FORECAST SNOWFALL TO GENERATE
SPURIOUS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE FCST HIGHS TODAY ARE COOLER THAN THE GUIDANCE WHILE
TONIGHTS LOWS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER TO ACCOMMODATE COLD AIR DAMMING
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO FINALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. BY 00Z
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD THE REGION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO MONTANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL BE PLACED OVER THE WEST
COAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WEAKENING...WHILE ONLY MOVING MINIMALLY.

THURSDAY HAS A DECENT SET-UP FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE ALSO
CONCURRENTLY EXPECTING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
SFC TO 500MB LAYER. PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T REAL TIGHT SO SHOULD BE MORE
OF A SITUATION WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN RATHER THAN STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED
LAYER WHICH TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ARES. MAX WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER ARE 30-35KT SO EXPECT GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 35 MPH.
ALTHOUGH GOOD SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...WILL STILL HAVE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN
THE 0C TO 5C RANGE.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THAN ON THURSDAY...AND
WHILE THERE ISN/T AS STRONG OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW 500MB
REMAINS STRONG AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE A BIT STRONGER AS
850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 30KTS TO 40KTS. SO AGAIN EXPECTING A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...AGAIN LOOKING FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE LACKING...FELT KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WAS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST FAR
ENOUGH TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN FLOW. CURRENT TIMING FROM
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP THE GOOD WARM AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUNDAY
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...PLENTIFUL MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
FOR THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER RELYING A BIT HEAVIER
ON THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS BEING SAID...THERE
ISN/T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL
ALSO HAVE MADE IT TO ON-LAND...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS SPLIT...WHICH
WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES.

ALSO...WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...IF PRECIPITATION IS INDEED ONGOING MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S IN PLACES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM...BELIEVE
ANYTHING WILL START AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN TO SNOW...BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS 500-1000 FEET WILL CONTINUE
IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY. AFTER 16Z...CLOUD BASES WILL BEGIN LIFTING TO ABOVE 1000
FEET AGL...SCATTERING OUT RAPIDLY TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING
ONLY MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS. AREAS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE ARE
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF AN ANW-LBF-OGA LINE. THE LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS LIKELY FOR THE AIRPORTS OF VTN...ANW...TIF AND MHN.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ONL AND BBW...THOUGH THE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.

SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS INDICATE SOME RAINSHOWERS COMING OUT OF
COLORADO AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY TO GIVE AT LEAST A GLANCING SHOT OF RAIN FOR LBF.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...SPRINGER









AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORMAN OK

 1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPED RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS.
CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TEXAS IS MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MENTION TSRA AT MOST SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
TERMINALS FOR LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SOME DRIZZLE
AND SHOWERS MAY FORM NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WHEN HEIGHT FALLS
ARRIVE WITH TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGES SOUTHWARD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS
OCCURS...CEILINGS MAY BECOME NEAR IFR WITH SOME FOG/DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL.

ELSEWHERE...CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR BUT SHOULD BECOME AT LEAST
MVFR AFTER 6Z OR SO. A FEW MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION NEAR
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LLJ. STORMS WOULD
THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDED TSRA
TO MOST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES MAINLY AFTER 6Z THROUGH 15Z
OR SO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT... WILL FIRST WATCH
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SOME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED PER MESOANALYSIS DESPITE THE
CLOUDINESS. RAP... HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND/OR LIFT NORTH INTO KANSAS.
WITH THIS PRIMARY FOCUS LIFTING INTO KANSAS... THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH SOME
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. DID
CONSIDER A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST... BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FALL JUST EAST OF THE CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  72  61  71 /  30  70  50  20
HOBART OK         67  75  58  70 /  30  50  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  67  77  64  73 /  50  70  40  10
GAGE OK           55  75  48  68 /  30  30  30   0
PONCA CITY OK     67  73  59  67 /  60  80  60  30
DURANT OK         68  72  67  77 /  30  90  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 421 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The deep cyclone over the Great Basin has begun to move east over
the past 12 hours and will continue to do so through tonight. Strong
southwesterly flow downstream of the base of the trough continues to
advect abundant mid/upper-level moisture into the Southern Plains
per the latest water vapor loop. An upper-level jet exceeding 100
kts was analyzed in the 00z RAOB data from southern NM into eastern
CO and the latest RAP analysis suggests that its speed has increased
to near 130 kts. We have already seen scattered showers (and a few
thunderstorms) this evening but low-level forcing remains meager as
of now. However, this H25 jet streak will propagate to the east
during the day. This should place West TX within a favored area for
mesoscale ascent; the right entrance region.

I think precipitation coverage will be limited this morning but
should begin to increase as mesoscale lift is augmented by synoptic
scale ascent associated with the upper trough. When and where
precipitation develops today remains uncertain given the lack of
focused low-level convergence but the greatest rain chances are
expected to be over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country (as
usual!). Instability and effective shear values will likely be
sufficient for organized convection. However, with precip becoming
more widespread, I think the ability to realize the full scope of
the instability will be limited. We may see a few elevated "hailers"
today but I think the general trend will be showers and garden
variety thunderstorms. However, I will mention the potential for
severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphicasts.

A Pacific cold front will traverse the CWA tonight, bringing much
drier air from the west and effectively ending rain chances from
west to east after midnight. This front will provide the strongest
surface forcing but it will be brief and transient. Some of this
activity may linger into Thursday morning but the bulk will be to
our east by then. I lowered precipitation amounts a bit given the
lack of focus, but precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches
suggest that there remains some potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Eastern areas may see around 1 inch on average but most of
the area will likely see less than 1/2 inch.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...

/Thursday through Sunday/
Looks like a quiet period across West Central Texas. The upper level
trough will be east of the area, taking the convection with it. The
upper level pattern will bring a low amplitude ridge over the
Southern Plains by this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in
behind a secondary cool front. Also, northwest winds will pick up
behind the current cool front on Thursday with some gusts near 25 mph.
However, the airmass behind the front is Pacific so temperatures
will only be slightly cooler for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be
in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be mainly in the 40s. It will be
slightly cooler for Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
Pattern begins to shift back to upper level cyclonic flow across the
Southern Plains early next week, with a broad trough located across
the western U.S. This system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to our area. The ECMWF model is more amplified with
the trough than the GFS model. Will go with more progressive GFS
solution for now. Also, there may be a tropical connection from the
Eastern Pacific. Low level moisture will struggle to return early on
due to surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. However,
modified moisture will return by Monday and Tuesday on southerly
flow with dewpoints in the 50s to possibly lower 60s. Will go with
slight chance to chance POPS for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain mild with highs in the 70s. The rain will end by late
Tuesday night and a dry forecast is in store for Wednesday.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  75  49  75 /  50  50   5   0   0
San Angelo  78  59  78  42  79 /  50  50   5   0   0
Junction  80  64  81  38  80 /  70  70  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

 1131 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AT 04Z MVFR CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF -DZ/-SHRA. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
BY 20Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS...10 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS EARLIER THIS EVENING AND MOST HAVE CURRENTLY
MOVED NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY. HAVE RESTRICTED THUNDER MENTION
FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING TO HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
PWS HAVE RISEN TO 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
AN AREA NEAR 2 INCHES MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AS NOTED
ON EVENING SATELLITE DERIVED PW AND SOUNDING DATA. SHOWERS ARE
SEEN BY RADAR OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE HIGHER PW TROPICAL
AIRMASS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT
AND BE NEARING THE I-3 CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE BOOSTED
POPS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION AN UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX ARE MOVING
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL BE CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO BOOSTED POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST IS ON TRACK
BASED ON 18Z MODELS CONSISTENCY WITH 12Z MODELS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TOTALS
OF 4 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
THIS EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. THE HI-RES ARW...TTU 3KM WRF AND
3KM HRRR ALL INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. THUS THE KDRT TERMINAL WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST
RISK OF BEING IMPACTED BY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE WARM
S TO SE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THESE SHOWERS MAY PASS OVER THE I-35
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT IMPACT THE PREVAILING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES DRAMATICALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BE REFLECTED WITH
THE INCLUSION OF TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES AND A PROB30
GROUP FOR THE KDRT TAF SITE. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THIS EVENING LOWERING TO MVFR BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. IFR CONDITIONS
BY 10Z WITH -DZ/BR POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR BY 20Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM-BREEZY LATE OCTOBER AFTERNOON...AS DEEP SLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS BROUGHT WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF. THE BRISK SLY
WINDS WERE A RESULT OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING
TOWARDS/INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...WHICH WAS IN TURN LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. THEREFORE
ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS(STORMS FAR
WEST) AS MINOR DISTURBANCES TRACK NEWD ACROSS TX. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DISTURBANCES
IN THE STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE(PW`S
NEAR 2 INCHES) AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD INTO THE NWRN CWA
LATE WED NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE MOMENT...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE VERY HIGH...MODELS
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS. HAVE GENERALLY ACCEPTED
HPC QPF VALUES WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO BLEND IN WITH SURROUNDING
WFO`S. THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SIMILAR WITH 1-2 INCH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF 281 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I10. LOCALLY
HEAVIER ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING/BACK-BUILDING STORMS NEAR THE COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL
HANDLE WITH MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH RACES EASTWARD AND A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SPLIT UP POPS FOR MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO SHOW DECREASING POPS FROM THE WEST...CLEARING
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER WEST-NWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. DRY PLEASANT
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MILD- COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DURING THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AND A MOIST SWLY FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  80  72  83  53 /  30  80  80  50  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  81  72  82  47 /  30  80  80  50  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  81  70  83  49 /  30  80  80  50  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  78  67  80  49 /  30  80  80  30  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  82  67  84  53 /  30  40  30  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  78  70  81  47 /  30  80  80  40  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  84  72  86  50 /  20  60  70  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  80  70  83  49 /  30  80  80  50  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  73  83  54 /  30  80  80  60  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  84  73  85  52 /  20  70  70  50  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  85  73  86  53 /  20  70  70  50  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04






Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1015 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Have let the dense fog advisory expire at 10 am. Still seeing some
areas of dense fog lingering, mainly across the eastern CWA, but
this will continue to lift over the next 30 to 60 minutes.

Focus in the near term is shifting to elevated convection moving
across northeast Missouri and about to cross into far western
Illinois. Main cluster of storms southwest of Quincy should bypass
our CWA, but showers/storms continue to develop further west
across Iowa and Missouri. These should become more surface based
with time. In addition, RAP and NAM models continue to show some
development across southern Illinois as the warm front lifts
northward toward our area. Latest visible satellite imagery
showing some decent thinning of the clouds in that area to help
make the air more unstable there.

Have done some timing adjustments of the rain chances for our area
today, but general trend is OK for now. Temperatures remain on
target to reach the lower 70s over the southern half of the CWA
later today, once the front arrives.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Main forecast challenge will be timing of improving vsbys acrs the
area this morning...and then coverage of rain and tsra this afternoon
and tonight. Widespread VLIFR conditions across the area early this
morning as a very moist air mass is being advected northward into
our area in advance of a warm front currently over southern Illinois.
This boundary will lift north this morning which should bring about
a gradual improvement in cigs and vsbys aftr 15z. We will then turn
our attention to a band of showers and thunderstorms which should
be pushing into our area in the 19z-22z time frame...with any
cig or vsby improvement seen late this morning into this afternoon
deteriorating once again after the rain starts. Once darkness sets
in early this evening...we look for LIFR and some VLIFR cigs to
prevail in rain and fog thru the remainder of the forecast period.
Right now it appears the fog will not be as thick as this morning.
Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning, and then
veer into a south direction this afternoon as the warm front lifts
north of our area with speeds in the 12 to 17 knot range.

Smith

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 222 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Main forecast challenges continue to be rain chances over the next
couple of days, as well as, severe weather threat Thursday afternoon.

07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure near Kansas City, with
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward across central
Missouri into far southern Illinois. A few showers are occurring
immediately along/north of the boundary, with an extensive area of
fog/drizzle extending much further north toward the I-80 corridor.
Aloft...deep upper low continues to spin over the Great Basin,
while ridging prevails downstream over the Plains into the Midwest.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

As western CONUS upper trough slowly tracks eastward, rising upper
heights ahead of the system will help give the stationary frontal
boundary a push northward today. High-res models are in good
agreement that the boundary will reach the northern KILX CWA by
around midday, then will lift into northern Illinois/southern
Wisconsin later this afternoon. Fog/drizzle will be ongoing
along/north of the front through the morning hours, but will
gradually dissipate and shift northward as the morning progresses.
Winds will initially be from the E/SE, but will veer to the south
during the afternoon, helping bring much warmer air into the
region. High temperatures will range from the middle 60s far north
around Lacon and Galesburg, to the lower 70s along/south of I-70.
In addition to the warmer conditions, showers and a few
thunderstorms will become more numerous ahead of the approaching
upper trough and associated cold front late in the day. As a
result, will carry likely to categorical POPs along/west of I-55
for mid to late afternoon, tapering down to just chance POPs
further east along the Indiana border.

As upper wave/cold front get closer, increasing southerly flow
will bring copious amounts of moisture northward into the area
tonight into Thursday. 00z Oct 30 KILX upper air sounding already
showed precipitable water values of just over 1 inch and upstream
soundings at KSGF and forecast projections indicate values rising
to around 1.5 inches tonight/Thursday. Given rich moisture and
strong upper dynamics, will carry categorical POPs across the
board through Thursday.

Cold front will push into Illinois on Thursday, gradually exiting
into Indiana by evening. GFS shows a clean FROPA late Thursday
afternoon, while the NAM is hinting at a weak surface wave along
the boundary potentially slowing its eastward progression a bit.
If the NAM is correct, surface low will track from northeast
Oklahoma midday Thursday into southwest Indiana by evening. This
could allow a slightly more unstable airmass just off to the
southwest of Illinois to briefly spill into the SE KILX CWA during
the late afternoon and evening. If this occurs, this somewhat
enhanced instability in conjunction with impressive 0-6km wind
shear of 70 to 80kt could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms
along the advancing front. As a result, the latest Day 2 outlook
from SPC has placed areas along/south of I-70 in a slight risk for
severe. Given low CAPE/high shear environment, biggest threat
would likely be damaging wind gusts. Further north across the
remainder of the CWA, widespread clouds/precip will keep
instability parameters even weaker, so threat for strong storms is
lower. Since front may be delayed by surface wave, will hold onto
chance POPs through Thursday evening, before drying things out
after midnight.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes behind the departing
front Friday into Saturday. Models continue to suggest clouds and
showers beneath this system will impact northern Illinois into
north-central Indiana, but will remain just N/NE of the KILX CWA.
Main story will be the cooler weather, with highs on Saturday only
making it into the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will build
into the region by early next week, resulting in cool/dry weather
for both Sunday and Monday. Models are still in disagreement with
regards to the next approaching system, with the GFS trying to
spread precip back into Illinois as early as Monday night. Given
sprawling surface high and dry airmass in place, think the slower
ECMWF is the way to go in the extended. As a result, will maintain
dry forecast Monday night followed by low chance POPs on Tuesday.
Best rain chances will likely hold off until Tuesday night into
Wednesday as cold front slowly pushes into the region.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 730 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 727 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

I HAVE EXTENDED THE FOG ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE CWA...AND NOW
HAVE IT GOING THROUGH 16Z. VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO LOWER OVER THE
CENTRAL CWA...AND BY SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS...THIS IS DUE TO
CEILINGS LOWERING TO THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH NORMAL ADVECTION
FOG. THIS SHOULD BE RATHER LONG LASTING ONCE IT FORMS...AND MAY
LINGER UNTIL IT IS DISSIPATED BY RAIN TODAY. CONVECTION OVER
EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD ARRIVE INTO THE
CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN THE WEST. THIS IS BEST HANDLED BY
THE HRRR MODEL...WHILE THE 06Z GFS AND 06Z NAM DO NOT HANDLE THIS
ACTIVITY WELL AT ALL SO FAR THIS MORNING.
ERVIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY A AT 520 AM...FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DUE TO VISIBILITIES CRASHING TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN ADVANCE OF
THE WARM FRONT. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH 10 AM...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BORDERS SHOULD FOG CONTINUE TO
FORM...WHICH IS HAS IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. FOR THE MOMENT...AM
COVERING THIS POTENTIAL WITH AN SPS STATEMENT ON FOG...BUT WHEN
AND IF VISIBILITIES DROP RAPIDLY...WE WILL EXPAND SINCE
SYNOPTICALLY...IT IS SUPPORTED FOR FOG FORMATION THROUGH
ADVECTION.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE CWA AND THE
REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...NOTED BY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS...AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. AN ABSENCE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE
REGION THIS PAST EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN AREAS
OF DRIZZLE OVER A WIDE AREA...AND THIS PROCESS CONTINUES. IN
ADDITION...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING BACK INTO THE
REGION...IT APPEARS ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE GROWING IN NUMBER ONCE
AGAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA...THESE ARE FORMING ON THE
NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND SHOULD BE WITH THUS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BROAD UPPER LOW TO THE WEST REMAINED CENTERED IN SOUTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH 00Z THIS PAST EVENING...AND IT REMAINS QUITE STRONG...BUT IS
NO LONGER CLOSED OFF FROM THE FLOW. IT WILL BE MOVING EAST AND
LIFTING OUT INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...RESULTING IN MOISTURE LADEN
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY...DRIZZLY...FOGGY...AND EVENTUALLY RAINY DAY.
WHILE FORCING FOR LOW LEVEL PROCESSES OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THE EVENTUAL DEEP SATURATION SHOULD LEAD
TO AN EVOLUTION TOWARDS WIDESPREAD RAIN FALL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT AT
THE MOMENT THEY APPEAR A BIT UNDERDONE ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN KS AND CENTRAL IOWA...WHICH IS THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PLUME THAT IS LIT UP ON THE UKMET...GEM...AND ECMWF TODAY.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE EITHER TOO FAR SOUTH OR NORTH IT SEEMS...AND MAY
NOT BE USABLE IN THE SHORT TERM.  I WILL RAMP UP POPS FROM CHANCE
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER BY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...I WILL CONTINUE THE FOG AND DRIZZLE
WHICH WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST BY AFTERNOON...AS RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MORE DOMINANT BY THEN. THE MORNING POPS ARE THERE TO COVER
BOTH THE SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT...AND THE FACT THAT DRIZZLE
INTENSITIES MAY PICK UP TO MEASURABLE LEVELS...I.E. MODERATE/HEAVY
AT TIMES.  FOG COULD BE DENSE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WELL...BUT WILL
NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY UNTIL WE SEE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
DEVELOP...SINCE THE CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ACT TO BREAK UP THE
DENSITY PROCESSES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA.

TONIGHT...ONGOING FORCING AND RAIN SHOULD BE CENTERED THROUGH THE
CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MODELS SHIFT THE
MOIST CONVEYOR.  AS WITH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...A POOL OF
MUCAPE IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL MAINTAIN EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE
GRIDS.

QPF...THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION WITH WHETHER HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE.  THE ANSWER CLEARLY IS YES. HOWEVER...THE MESOSCALE DETAILS
OF CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THE MORE BULLISH
MODELS...AND OUR FORECAST WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME SORTING THIS OUT
EXPLICITLY. AT THIS POINT...THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...IT APPEARS AMOUNTS
AROUND 0.75 NORTHWEST WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE QUAD
CITIES...TO 1.7 INCHES IN THE SOUTH. SOME VARIATION OF A QUARTER
INCH OR MORE IS VERY LIKELY FROM THESE NUMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL...
IT IS NEARLY CERTAIN THAT THIS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OUR CWA HAS SEEN SINCE EARLY/MID SUMMER.  SHOULD THIS EVENT
UNFOLD AS SEEN BY OUR FORECAST...AND NEARLY EVERY MODEL FORECAST...A
DENT WILL BE MADE INTO THE ONGOING SEVERE DROUGHT.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THURSDAY...STILL SOME VARIANCES IN THE LATEST RUN MODELS IN HANDLING
SFC WAVE/OR WAVES DEVELOPMENT ALONG PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS UPPER
LONG WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MS RVR VALLEY FROM THE WEST BY
LATE THU. BUT THE GENERAL IDEA BY A GENERAL BLEND/SREF TYPE OUTPUT
HAS THE BOUNDARY PUSHING EAST OF THE MS RVR FROM THE WEST BY LATE
THU MORNING AND THEN SLOWED BY SECONDARY WAVE GENESIS ON THE FRONT
ACRS CENTRAL MO WITH IT PROPAGATING ACRS CENTRAL IL BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. THUS IT APPEARS AFTER PRE-FRONTAL RAIN SWATH WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER PUSHES EAST THU MORNING...SECONDARY DEF ZONE TYPE
PRECIP ZONE TO MOVE ACRS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MEAN AXIS MORE
LIKELY MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR SLIGHTLY MORE OF THE
DVN CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT THIS ACCEPTED PLACEMENT...COLUMN SATURATION AND FORCING
SUGGEST ANOTHER 0.40 TO 0.80 OF RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM STERLING IL...TO JUST WEST OF MONMOUTH IL...AND TO KEOKUK IA BY
00Z FRI. PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY DROP OFF SHARPLY FROM THERE AS WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WITH DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THE SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER...MILD TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FRO MOST OF THE
CWA..ALTHOUGH THE FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST MAY BE HELD IN THE 50S BY
INCREASING POST-FRONTAL PROCESSES. THE MAIN CYCLONE DEEPENS ACRS
NORTHERN LOWER MI THU EVENING AND SOME LLVL WESTERLY ACCELERATION
OF INCOMING DRIER AIR AND FRONTAL PUSH TO THE EAST SHOULD BRING
ABOUT AN END TO THE PRECIP EAST OF THE MS RVR BY 10 PM CDT. BUT THIS
STILL SUBJECT TO SOME FINE TUNING DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST OR EAST
THE DEF ZONE REALLY DEVELOPS EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOWS BY FRI MORNING
IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND IN THE LOWER 40S IN THE
EASTERN FCST AREA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FRI AND SAT STILL APPEAR AS POST-SYSTEM COLD
AIR ADVECTION DAYS AND WRAP AROUND STRATOCU...KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
50S OR EVEN HELD DOWN IN THE 40S IN SOME LOCATIONS. EMBEDDED
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW VORTS TO POSSIBLY WRING OUT SOME DRIZZLE OR
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW
LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT DIGGING UPSTREAM TROF TO BRING ABOUT
SOME SFC TEMP MODERATION WITH VALUES RECOVERING BACK INTO AT LEAST
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80...LOWER 50S TO THE
NORTH.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING
SIGNS OF MOISTURE RETURN AND LIGHT PRECIP BREAKING OUT IN
INCREASING WARM MOIST CONVEYOR TO LEE OF NEXT L/W TROF COMPLEX...BUT
HAVE DELAYED THE PROCESS TO LATE MONDAY NIGH OR MORE LIKELY TUE.
COULD SEE SOME MORE DELAY PRECIP ARRIVAL TIMING IN UPCOMING
MODEL RUNS...BUT ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT MAY
BE IN LINE FOR THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

A CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD VERY POOR FLYING
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM BRING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF VERY LOW IFR AND IFR WEATHER TO THE REGION.
DENSE FOG...FOG...DRIZZLE...AND SHOWERS WILL DROP VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 2 AND 1/4 MILE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 200
FT AND 800 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS WILL CHANGE TO SOUTH
BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE AND CONTINUOUS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY IN ALL SITES. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR..BUT IS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND OCCURRENCE.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 1021 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN
MOVE EAST THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSING THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START...THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STARING TO SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICKER
HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE.
THIS CLEARING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KCAR
SOUNDING SHOULD A DEEP DRY LAYER FROM 600 MB TO 850 MB SO
THINKING IS ONCE WE LOSE THE HIGH/MID CLOUDS WE SHOULD A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING DURING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN AREAS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK GOOD. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE USING THE LATEST HRRR TO TWEAK CURRENT SKY
COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TARGET.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL THEN BRING A
MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S
AGAIN OVER THE NORTH AND NEAR FREEZING DOWNEAST. SOME WARM
ADVECTION HIGH CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO STRAY INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DRAW A WARM FRONT NORTH
TOWARD THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT STARTING TO CROSS THE REGION LATER
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...THEN TAPER TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT FRIDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DOWNEAST WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS WILL THEN END IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...WHILE SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A WEAK LOW WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER SATURDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WEAK LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH HOW
QUICKLY THE LOW MOVES EAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. EXPECT A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CROSSES
THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW NORTHERN SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY GO TO MVFR TODAY
IN PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...INCREASING TO MVFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO A CONCERN. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY...WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/DUDA
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/DUDA/NORCROSS







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 727 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RDG IN THE PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF CUTOFF LO OVER THE WRN CONUS. AREA OF -SN/-RA OVER UPR
MI RELATED TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K SFCS /ABOUT H85-7/
ON WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING THRU THE NE CONUS IS TENDING TO
DIMINISH W-E EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR CNVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS FM THE
PLAINS. MORE PCPN...MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA...IS LINGERING OVER NW WI
CLOSER TO MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB AND S OF A
PRONOUNCED DRY LYR BTWN H8-85 DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THERE IS
ANOTHER AREA OF LO PRES IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN TROF.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LINGERING POPS THIS MRNG
ASSOCIATED WITH 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THEN SURGE OF MORE
PCPN LATER TNGT TIED TO LO PRES NOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE SCENTRAL
PLAINS.

TODAY...PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K
SFCS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB WL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLD -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG MAINLY OVER THE SRN TIER.
BUT UNDER THE INCRSG LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC RELATED TO
DNVA AHEAD OF THE RDG...THIS PCPN SHOULD FADE THIS MRNG. AS THE LLVL
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE DVLPG LO TO THE SW...THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR WITH PWAT APRCHG 1 INCH TOWARD 00Z WL SUPPORT
A RETURN OF CHC POPS AGAIN OVER THE W. ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER DYNAMIC
FORCING WITH JUST WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC UNDER UPR CNVGC SHOULD
LIMIT THE COVERAGE/PCPN AMNTS. DESPITE CLDY SKIES...THE STEADY LLVL
WAD WL BRING A WARMER DAY TO THE CWA...WITH HI TEMPS LATER REACHING
WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE 50S OVER THE SRN TIER. SO ANY
PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA.

TNGT...AS UPR JET CORE STREAKS NEWD OUT OF ROCKIES TROF MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS...MODELS INDICATE AREA OF UPR DVGC IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET WL STREAK NEWD THRU THE UPR LKS LATE TNGT. IN
CONCERT WITH PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT LIFTS PWAT OVER AN
INCH /OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL/...GOING FCST SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS
ARRIVING FM THE SW LOOKS ON TRACK. BEST CHC FOR THE HEAVIER RA WL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E...WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST HIER. THERE SHOULD
BE LTL IF ANY TEMP DROP TNGT...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTER AIR...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CONUS TO END THE WEEK. TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCED OVER THESE AREAS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG JET ENERGY IN NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND...150+
KT JET LIFTS ACROSS THE CANADAIAN MARITIMES USHERING THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER ROUND OF TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS MIDDLE CONUS BY END OF THE LONG TERM.

MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH GETS GOING TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...
DEEPENS TO A SUB 985MB LOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT EXITS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD QUEBEC. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON NOSE OF 130+ KT JET CORE ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS...PREFER
DEEPER AND A FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW FOR DAYTIME ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR
TO ECMWF AND LOCAL REGIONAL-WRF. GEM-NH LOOKS SIMILAR AS WELL...AT
LEAST UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. EXPECT SWATH OF RAIN TO SWEEP MAINLY OUT
OF NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN SHOWERS UNTIL
AT LEAST MID-LATE AFTN. FORECAST GETS RATHER TRICKY BY THIS POINT.
UNCERTAINTY COMES IN AS PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SECONDARY JET STREAK. LIKELY WILL SEE INTIAL
SFC LOW FADE AWAY AS BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT REGROUPS VCNTY OF LK
MICHIGAN. LIKE THE UKMET /GEM-NH IDEA WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING TO
LESS THAN 990MB VCNTY OF CNTRL LK MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. ECMWF IS ON
THIS TRACK NOW AS WELL...SHIFTING AWAY FM A WEAKER LOW VCNTY OF
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NAM SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTHWEST AND TOO DEEP...PERHAPS SUFFERING FM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. MSLP CENTER MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE WIND FCST
WHICH WILL BE A MESS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY WHEN EXACT
TRACK OF SFC LOW IS APPARENT. PRIMARY IMPACT ON WEATHER IS THE NON
NAM IDEA OPENS DOOR FOR FARTHER WEST JET STREAK/DIVERGENCE AND ALSO
SFC-H85 TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS LATER THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING ROUGHLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA. STILL COULD BE SOME TSRA AS
WELL AS EASTERN CWA IS ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND ON
NOSE OF H5-H3 DRY SLOT POKING IN FM SOUTH WHICH WOULD STEEPEN THE
LAPSE RATES.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAILY TEMPS SINCE THE 12TH OF OCTOBER. TEMPS THAT START TO SLOWLY
RISE TONIGHT CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY FROM JUST
ADVECTION ALONE AS SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY AND MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HIGHER DWPNTS AND SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS POINT TO FOG
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY LATE DAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG...THOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS ARRIVE TO GET RID OF IT COMPLETELY.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FM UPR LAKES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MSLP DOWN BLO 980MB AT THIS POINT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS NW WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. IF LOW TRENDS
ANY FARTHER WEST...WOULD LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE SUCH A DEEP LOW...COLD AIR ARRIVAL FOR FRIDAY
MORNING LAGGING MORE THAN PREVIOUS MODELS HAVE INDICATED. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES STAYING ABOVE 1300M AND H85 TEMPS STAYING WARMER THAN
-4C INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WEST WITH RAIN OVR THE
CNTRL AND EAST. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ALSO SUPPORT IDEA OF MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW FOR MOST OF CWA. A BIT MORE COOLING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H85
TEMPS -4C TO -6C. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE
COMES THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. IF IT WAS COLDER WOULD BE MORE
CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY LOOKING AT
DELTA T/S 12-14C WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SFC
TEMPS STILL MARGINALLY COLD TOO WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S AT THE TIME THE STRONGEST LARGER SCALE LIFT IS OCCURRING.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE AT
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING IS NOT AS
SUPPORTATIVE BY THAT TIME. GENERALLY...SEEMS THAT THE MARGINALLY COLD
AIRMASS IS GOING TO PUT CRIMP IN EXTENT OF SNOW FROM THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

TROUGHING/COOLER AIR STICKS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR FIRST FM THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN EVENTUALLY FM THE NORTH ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S OVER 15C/ WILL KEEP LK EFFECT GOING. ANY LK
EFFECT WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMING MORE
ANTICYLONIC LEADS TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS...LESS
CONVERGENCE...AND MARGINAL MOISTURE BLO INVERSION. ANY LINGERING LK
EFFECT WILL FINALLY CUT OUT OF PICTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGER
SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

ON TO THE FAR REACHES OF THE LONG TERM. INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THERE THAT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SLOWER
YET...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH REGION UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS MUCH WETTER SCENARIO AS IT HAS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME CONSISTENCY FM EACH
OF THESE MODELS...SO A CONSENSUS WILL HOLD FOR NOW. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX OF BOTH FOR PYTPE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

CHALLENING AVIATION FCST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH OBSVD CONDITIONS
VARYING FM IFR TO VFR. BUT WITH PREVAILING S WIND...EXPECT MOISTER
AIR TO THE S...WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON...TO OVERSPREAD UPR
MI AND DROP CIGS AT THE TAF SITES TO MVFR. CONDITIONS WL DETERIORATE
FURTHER TO IFR TNGT WITH A SURGE OF EVEN MOISTER AIR AND SOME -SHRA.
BEST CHC FOR LIFR CONDITIONS WL BE AT SAW...WHICH WL BE CLOSER TO
THE SURGE OF MOISTER AIR AND EXPERIENCE AN UPSLOPE S WIND.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE MSLP PATTERN REMAINS AS
FORECAST...ONLY WOULD BE A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SEEING GALES DURING
THIS TIME. IF THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST...EVEN JUST SLIGHLY...THE
CHANCE OF GALES WILL INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS STAY UP TO
25 KTS INTO SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BREAK IN STRONGER WINDS ONLY BRIEF THOUGH WITH
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS BY MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 551 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWLY WORKING EAST...ALLOWING MORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO DRAW IN MORE MOISTURE AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES
DURING THE DAY TODAY. STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS
UPPER LOW APPROACHES TODAY.  MEAGER ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED AGAIN
...WITH MAIN FOCUS TRANSITIONING MORE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND INDEED
BY 00Z.31 MORE LIFT IS CONCENTRATED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LAYERED
FRONTOGENESIS INTO CENTRAL MN ALONG SURFACE TROUGH. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO SOUTHERN MN INTO THE EVENING AS
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST.  THE GFS IS STILL INDICATING MIXED LAYER
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE.  THE UPPER
TROUGH/LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSES MORE INTO FAR EASTERN AREAS
AFTER 06Z.31  WILL MENTION CATEGORICAL POPS AS THIS MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AREAS INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN AREA AS SURFACE LOW
LIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

QPF APPEARS TO BE ON THE DOWNWARD TRENDS AS WELL...AS BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ADVECTED MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA...IN AREA OF POSSIBLE HEAVIER CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE A GENERAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH TYPE EVENT...WITH
PERHAPS A THREE QUARTER AMOUNT INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
EASTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE TWO VORT MAXES MERGE OVER THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY AND CAUSE THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MAKES ITS TRANSITION THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BOMB OUT...MOST EXTREME EXAMPLE BEING A 20 MB DEEPENING ON
THE GFS IN ONLY 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH IMPRESSIVE AS THIS IS...IT
WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. IN FACT...MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE IN THURSDAY WITH ONLY THE LOWER 6-7 KFT
REMAINING SOMEWHAT MOIST ACROSS THE EAST. THUS...RAIN CHANCES ARE
NOT LOOKING GOOD AND A FURTHER DOWNWARD TREND OF POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT FORECAST.

THAT TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW DIGGING IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
PRETTY POTENT VORT...DEEPER MOISTURE...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DESPITE THICKNESSES AROUND 534 DM...
THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S KEEPING P-TYPE ALL RAIN. WET BULB TEMPS
ALSO APPEAR UNFAVORABLE/TOO WARM FOR SLEET.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...SUNDAY...
AND MONDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ASIDE FROM MONDAY WHERE A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A
DIGGING WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES.

THE EVOLUTION OF THAT TROUGH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGS
THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK FOR THE LONG TERM. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH EACH RUN. GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
DIGGING TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GEM AND ECMWF AND THUS TOO
PROGRESSIVE...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THAT MODEL. THE LATTER
SET OF MODELS KEEP THE TROUGH POSITIVE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
SURFACE LOW TRACK...BUT THAT CAN EASILY CHANGE WITH A MORE ROBUST
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST ON DAYS 6/7 AS SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN
IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH
LOWEST CEILINGS HERE AND TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO THE INVERTED
TROUGH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TRAILING SOUTH TO SURFACE LOW.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY...WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS...POSSIBLE LIFR EARLY. THE LATEST HRRR LIFTS ANOTHER
BAND OF -RA OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BREAK
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER EAST. INVERTED TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. WILL
SEE LOWER CONDITIONS TO THE EAST...AND MAY LIFT A BIT OUT WEST AS
THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND WINDS ESTABLISH MORE OF A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION. WILL STILL MAINTAIN IFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...CONTINUE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. MAY
SEE A BRIEF BUMP INTO LOWER END MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
MORE STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN AFFECTS THE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING...BUT
BELIEVE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA,
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MORE STEADY PCPN WILL BE IN THE 00Z-06Z
PERIOD. THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH IFR CONDITIONS
HOLDING UNTIL AT LEAST MIDMORNING THURSDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE THEN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -RA ENDING IN MRNG. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1055 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Several forecast challenges exist over the next 30 hours, primarily
ongoing dense fog, precipitation amounts and timing, and the
potential for severe weather.

As of this morning, a surface warm front was slowly moving
northward, currently situated just north of I-70. To the north of
this boundary, areas of dense fog continue to persist with
visibilities a half mile or less and very low ceilings. To the south,
conditions steadily improve with southward extent with a seasonably
warm and humid airmass advecting into the area. The pattern and
short-term model guidance supports areas of dense fog along and north
of the boundary through 14Z. Will continue to carry dense fog
advisory and remove counties from south to north as conditions
improve largely tied to the warm frontal position.

Attention turns to large upper trough beginning to emerge into the
Plains states. At the surface, a cold front currently located from
Omaha to Wichita will remain nearly stationary throughout the day in
response to pressure falls to the west. The forecast area will find
itself within the warm sector, with dewpoints steadily increasing
into the lower to middle 60s. As the nose of a 100kt upper jet
approaches the region, widespread convection is expected to develop
along the boundary and warm sector as strong large scale ascent
occurs. Convective-resolving models support synoptic scenario with
convection initially developing over eastern Kansas by mid morning
and spreading northeastward/additional development over the forecast
area. Extensive cloud cover should preclude strong boundary layer
destabilization. However, model guidance has been progressively
higher with regards to elevated instability in advance of said
mid-morning convection. Current RAP MUCAPE analysis has 500-1000
J/kg over much of the CWA. Expect similar or slightly higher MUCAPE
values to proceed initial convection. With 1-6km bulk shear values of
50kts expected, ample support for organized storms will exist. The
biggest question is whether sufficient instability will remain
available for initial activity. The highest probability for robust
convection will be across the west/southwest quarter of the CWA,
generally KC Metro and south/west, where an initial round of strong
to severe weather may be possible between 8am to 1pm. The primary
threat would be hail to quarter-size and possibility any wind gust
that can reach the surface through the near-surface stable layer.

As the upper trough begins to move further into the Plains this
afternoon and evening, the surface cold front will begin to shift
eastward into far northwestern Missouri during the late afternoon
hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected as this
occurs with large scale ascent still in place and surface forcing
increases. While wind shear will be supportive of organized
convection, degree of instability is much more in question. At this
time, do not expect much severe weather unless better atmospheric
recovery can take place following earlier anticipated convection.
The highest probability for a few stronger storms should be tied to
near the boundary over the far western CWA, with a decreasing
probability with eastward extent. Regardless, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much of the area from the evening
into Thursday morning. Will continue post-frontal precipitation
chances into Thursday afternoon as the base of the trough passes
through the forecast area, prior to upper downglide. With modest
lapse rates, could still see some embedded thunder in this activity
as well.

As for additional precipitation totals now through Thursday
afternoon, another 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. As
mentioned above, a very moist airmass remains in place for this time
of year. Precipitable water values between 1.25-1.5 inches is
roughly two standard deviations above PW climatology, suggesting
robust convection will be efficient rainfall producers. With the
relatively quick storm speed and flash flood rainfall guidance, the
overall threat from flash flooding should be low outside of urban
centers. Will monitor river levels and subsequent response as the
event progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to ridging across the
central CONUS this weekend, allowing for near to slightly above
normal temperatures by Sunday and dry, quiet conditions across the
region through early next week. The primary focus in the long range
forecast period will be a deepening trough over the western U.S.
early next week, which could move into the region by Tuesday.
Precipitation with this system should again spread over a fairly
long period of time with a surface boundary stretching up into the
region on Monday, warm-sector precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and frontal precipitation possibly stretching into
early Wednesday. Currently, the most likely timeframe for rainfall
will be on Tuesday night, but changes in timing are likely as the
system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Storms are currently bypassing the KC area to the north
and south, and currently do not expect areas in between to fill in
until at least early this afternoon, possibly later. Therefore sent
an amendment keeping thunder out of the MCI terminals until 18Z at
the earliest. Best chances for widespread thunder around KC look to
be a few hours either side of 00Z. Meanwhile strong storm heading for
STJ may be capable of strong winds.

Previous Discussion...
Issued at 627 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

IFR stratus and light fog will continue across much of the region
this morning, except in far northern and northeast portions of the
region where dense fog and LIFR ceilings may continue for another
2-3 hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will
become widespread this afternoon through tonight, impacting much of
the region especially after 18z. Ceilings are likely to remain IFR
or very low-end MVFR through the remainder of the forecast period,
even as precipitation begins to clear out from northwest to southeast
Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Several forecast challenges exist over the next 30 hours, primarily
ongoing dense fog, precipitation amounts and timing, and the
potential for severe weather.

As of this morning, a surface warm front was slowly moving
northward, currently situated just north of I-70. To the north of
this boundary, areas of dense fog continue to persist with
visibilities a half mile or less and very low ceilings. To the south,
conditions steadily improve with southward extent with a seasonably
warm and humid airmass advecting into the area. The pattern and
short-term model guidance supports areas of dense fog along and north
of the boundary through 14Z. Will continue to carry dense fog
advisory and remove counties from south to north as conditions
improve largely tied to the warm frontal position.

Attention turns to large upper trough beginning to emerge into the
Plains states. At the surface, a cold front currently located from
Omaha to Wichita will remain nearly stationary throughout the day in
response to pressure falls to the west. The forecast area will find
itself within the warm sector, with dewpoints steadily increasing
into the lower to middle 60s. As the nose of a 100kt upper jet
approaches the region, widespread convection is expected to develop
along the boundary and warm sector as strong large scale ascent
occurs. Convective-resolving models support synoptic scenario with
convection initially developing over eastern Kansas by mid morning
and spreading northeastward/additional development over the forecast
area. Extensive cloud cover should preclude strong boundary layer
destabilization. However, model guidance has been progressively
higher with regards to elevated instability in advance of said
mid-morning convection. Current RAP MUCAPE analysis has 500-1000
J/kg over much of the CWA. Expect similar or slightly higher MUCAPE
values to proceed initial convection. With 1-6km bulk shear values of
50kts expected, ample support for organized storms will exist. The
biggest question is whether sufficient instability will remain
available for initial activity. The highest probability for robust
convection will be across the west/southwest quarter of the CWA,
generally KC Metro and south/west, where an initial round of strong
to severe weather may be possible between 8am to 1pm. The primary
threat would be hail to quarter-size and possibility any wind gust
that can reach the surface through the near-surface stable layer.

As the upper trough begins to move further into the Plains this
afternoon and evening, the surface cold front will begin to shift
eastward into far northwestern Missouri during the late afternoon
hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected as this
occurs with large scale ascent still in place and surface forcing
increases. While wind shear will be supportive of organized
convection, degree of instability is much more in question. At this
time, do not expect much severe weather unless better atmospheric
recovery can take place following earlier anticipated convection.
The highest probability for a few stronger storms should be tied to
near the boundary over the far western CWA, with a decreasing
probability with eastward extent. Regardless, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much of the area from the evening
into Thursday morning. Will continue post-frontal precipitation
chances into Thursday afternoon as the base of the trough passes
through the forecast area, prior to upper downglide. With modest
lapse rates, could still see some embedded thunder in this activity
as well.

As for additional precipitation totals now through Thursday
afternoon, another 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. As
mentioned above, a very moist airmass remains in place for this time
of year. Precipitable water values between 1.25-1.5 inches is
roughly two standard deviations above PW climatology, suggesting
robust convection will be efficient rainfall producers. With the
relatively quick storm speed and flash flood rainfall guidance, the
overall threat from flash flooding should be low outside of urban
centers. Will monitor river levels and subsequent response as the
event progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to ridging across the
central CONUS this weekend, allowing for near to slightly above
normal temperatures by Sunday and dry, quiet conditions across the
region through early next week. The primary focus in the long range
forecast period will be a deepening trough over the western U.S.
early next week, which could move into the region by Tuesday.
Precipitation with this system should again spread over a fairly
long period of time with a surface boundary stretching up into the
region on Monday, warm-sector precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and frontal precipitation possibly stretching into
early Wednesday. Currently, the most likely timeframe for rainfall
will be on Tuesday night, but changes in timing are likely as the
system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

IFR stratus and light fog will continue across much of the region
this morning, except in far northern and northeast portions of the
region where dense fog and LIFR ceilings may continue for another
2-3 hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will
become widespread this afternoon through tonight, impacting much of
the region especially after 18z. Ceilings are likely to remain IFR
or very low-end MVFR through the remainder of the forecast period,
even as precipitation begins to clear out from northwest to southeast
Thursday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ025-102-
     103.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 955 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION /SAVE KVTN WHERE
THE CURRENT TEMP IS 0C/ HAVE RISEN ABOVE 0C AND PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY HAVING DIFFICULTLY OVERCOMING DRY LAYERS IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

A 700MB WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB THIS MORNING TRIGGERING
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE
STRONG...NEAR 50 KT FROM 850MB TO 700MB ON THE KGLD RADAR AND
AROUND 40 KT ON THE KFTG RADAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING 850MB TO 700MB AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL. SFC
OBS ACROSS WRN NEB SUGGEST JUST SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES COULD
GET FREEZING RAIN WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH UNDERGO WEAK SCOURING.

THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING...FROM KIML NORTHEAST THROUGH KVTN AND THE
NAM TSTM PROBABILITY SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. NOTE THE KGLD VWP IS FILLING UP WITH RETURNS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS CAPTURE THIS BUT
SHOW QUITE A SPREAD IN RAIN COVERAGE. SINCE THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT IS FILLING UP ACROSS WRN THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
FARTHER EAST...ECHOS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. THE SREF IS VERY GENEROUS
WITH THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE THE RAP IS QUITE DRY SHOWING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF QPF. A FULL MULTIMODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS AND QPF
BUT STILL PRODUCES 1/10 OR AN INCH OR LESS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA. EITHER WAY THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FEATURE IS THE HEAVILY ADVERTISED "CLEARING" FORECAST BY
ALL MODELS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC
FORCING TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FROM THE FRONT RANGE EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE WPC KEEPS A
STATIONARY FRONT PINNED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND LIFTS THAT FRONT EAST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY MORNING ONCE THE
SFC LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE FCST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL. FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS NO
CHOICE BUT TO BLEND A MULTIMODEL SOLN FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ONE
CAVEAT. THE NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FOG
BANK SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FOG
SHOULD SPREAD TO NEAR NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 BUT NO FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THE PROPENSITY FOR THE NAM TO USE FORECAST SNOWFALL TO GENERATE
SPURIOUS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE FCST HIGHS TODAY ARE COOLER THAN THE GUIDANCE WHILE
TONIGHTS LOWS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER TO ACCOMMODATE COLD AIR DAMMING
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO FINALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. BY 00Z
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD THE REGION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO MONTANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL BE PLACED OVER THE WEST
COAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WEAKENING...WHILE ONLY MOVING MINIMALLY.

THURSDAY HAS A DECENT SET-UP FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE ALSO
CONCURRENTLY EXPECTING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
SFC TO 500MB LAYER. PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T REAL TIGHT SO SHOULD BE MORE
OF A SITUATION WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN RATHER THAN STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED
LAYER WHICH TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ARES. MAX WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER ARE 30-35KT SO EXPECT GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 35 MPH.
ALTHOUGH GOOD SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...WILL STILL HAVE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN
THE 0C TO 5C RANGE.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THAN ON THURSDAY...AND
WHILE THERE ISN/T AS STRONG OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW 500MB
REMAINS STRONG AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE A BIT STRONGER AS
850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 30KTS TO 40KTS. SO AGAIN EXPECTING A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...AGAIN LOOKING FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE LACKING...FELT KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WAS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST FAR
ENOUGH TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN FLOW. CURRENT TIMING FROM
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP THE GOOD WARM AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUNDAY
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...PLENTIFUL MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
FOR THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER RELYING A BIT HEAVIER
ON THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS BEING SAID...THERE
ISN/T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL
ALSO HAVE MADE IT TO ON-LAND...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS SPLIT...WHICH
WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES.

ALSO...WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...IF PRECIPITATION IS INDEED ONGOING MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S IN PLACES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM...BELIEVE
ANYTHING WILL START AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN TO SNOW...BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE SCOURING
OUT THE IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BE TOO FAST. THE
FORECAST KEEPS IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR IS EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS FOG AND IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 AFTER 06Z. THE CONCERN ELSEWHERE IS FOG OR
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS.

NOTE THAT A CLEARING LINE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN COLO THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE CLOSELY TRACKED USING TIMING TOOLS TO
FORECAST THE IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KLBF AND KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC












AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 625 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

A 700MB WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB THIS MORNING TRIGGERING
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE
STRONG...NEAR 50 KT FROM 850MB TO 700MB ON THE KGLD RADAR AND
AROUND 40 KT ON THE KFTG RADAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING 850MB TO 700MB AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL. SFC
OBS ACROSS WRN NEB SUGGEST JUST SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES COULD
GET FREEZING RAIN WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH UNDERGO WEAK SCOURING.

THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING...FROM KIML NORTHEAST THROUGH KVTN AND THE
NAM TSTM PROBABILITY SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. NOTE THE KGLD VWP IS FILLING UP WITH RETURNS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS CAPTURE THIS BUT
SHOW QUITE A SPREAD IN RAIN COVERAGE. SINCE THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT IS FILLING UP ACROSS WRN THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
FARTHER EAST...ECHOS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. THE SREF IS VERY GENEROUS
WITH THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE THE RAP IS QUITE DRY SHOWING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF QPF. A FULL MULTIMODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS AND QPF
BUT STILL PRODUCES 1/10 OR AN INCH OR LESS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA. EITHER WAY THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FEATURE IS THE HEAVILY ADVERTISED "CLEARING" FORECAST BY
ALL MODELS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC
FORCING TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FROM THE FRONT RANGE EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE WPC KEEPS A
STATIONARY FRONT PINNED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND LIFTS THAT FRONT EAST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY MORNING ONCE THE
SFC LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE FCST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL. FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS NO
CHOICE BUT TO BLEND A MULTIMODEL SOLN FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ONE
CAVEAT. THE NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FOG
BANK SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FOG
SHOULD SPREAD TO NEAR NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 BUT NO FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THE PROPENSITY FOR THE NAM TO USE FORECAST SNOWFALL TO GENERATE
SPURIOUS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE FCST HIGHS TODAY ARE COOLER THAN THE GUIDANCE WHILE
TONIGHTS LOWS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER TO ACCOMMODATE COLD AIR DAMMING
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO FINALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. BY 00Z
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD THE REGION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO MONTANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL BE PLACED OVER THE WEST
COAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WEAKENING...WHILE ONLY MOVING MINIMALLY.

THURSDAY HAS A DECENT SET-UP FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE ALSO
CONCURRENTLY EXPECTING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
SFC TO 500MB LAYER. PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T REAL TIGHT SO SHOULD BE MORE
OF A SITUATION WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN RATHER THAN STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED
LAYER WHICH TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ARES. MAX WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER ARE 30-35KT SO EXPECT GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 35 MPH.
ALTHOUGH GOOD SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...WILL STILL HAVE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN
THE 0C TO 5C RANGE.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THAN ON THURSDAY...AND
WHILE THERE ISN/T AS STRONG OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW 500MB
REMAINS STRONG AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE A BIT STRONGER AS
850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 30KTS TO 40KTS. SO AGAIN EXPECTING A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...AGAIN LOOKING FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE LACKING...FELT KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WAS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST FAR
ENOUGH TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN FLOW. CURRENT TIMING FROM
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP THE GOOD WARM AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUNDAY
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...PLENTIFUL MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
FOR THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER RELYING A BIT HEAVIER
ON THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS BEING SAID...THERE
ISN/T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL
ALSO HAVE MADE IT TO ON-LAND...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS SPLIT...WHICH
WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES.

ALSO...WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...IF PRECIPITATION IS INDEED ONGOING MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S IN PLACES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM...BELIEVE
ANYTHING WILL START AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN TO SNOW...BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE MODELS ARE SCOURING
OUT THE IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING WHICH COULD BE TOO FAST. THE
FORECAST KEEPS IFR/MVFR THROUGH 18Z WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WEST
TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR IS EXPECTED ALONG HIGHWAY 83
THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

TONIGHT...THE NAM SUGGESTS FOG AND IFR/LIFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 AFTER 06Z. THE CONCERN ELSEWHERE IS FOG OR
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS.

NOTE THAT A CLEARING LINE IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN COLO THIS
MORNING AND THIS WILL BE CLOSELY TRACKED USING TIMING TOOLS TO
FORECAST THE IMPROVEMENT OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT KLBF AND KVTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...CDC







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 622 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
See the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
This is certainly not an easy TAF package. Uncertainty exists
regarding both ceiling heights and convective development.
Basically, we are looking at widespread MVFR ceilings this morning
with possible TEMPO IFR conditions. Elevated radar echoes continue
to increase as upper-level ascent improves over the area and we`ll
see showers and a few thunderstorms develop later this morning into
the afternoon hours. The greatest thunderstorm chances will occur
south and east of KSJT late this afternoon and this evening. Thus,
no mention of thunder was included at KSJT or KABI. However, I did
include vicinity remarks at the remaining terminals after peak
heating.

Winds will be from the south today at 14-18 kts for the most part
but may gust over 25 kts at times. I expect wind speeds to relax
around 00z before veering to the west late tonight as a Pacific cold
front moves across West Central Texas. This will bring drier air
into the area, ending precipitation from west to east after
midnight. I have low confidence in the potential for low ceilings
developing again tonight. Widespread convection over the southeast
terminals may lift cloud bases into VFR category or they could lower
significantly if precip is light. I opted to go with a prevailing
ceiling around 2000 ft at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA tonight with
prevailing VFR conditions at KSJT and KABI.

Johnson

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The deep cyclone over the Great Basin has begun to move east over
the past 12 hours and will continue to do so through tonight. Strong
southwesterly flow downstream of the base of the trough continues to
advect abundant mid/upper-level moisture into the Southern Plains
per the latest water vapor loop. An upper-level jet exceeding 100
kts was analyzed in the 00z RAOB data from southern NM into eastern
CO and the latest RAP analysis suggests that its speed has increased
to near 130 kts. We have already seen scattered showers (and a few
thunderstorms) this evening but low-level forcing remains meager as
of now. However, this H25 jet streak will propagate to the east
during the day. This should place West TX within a favored area for
mesoscale ascent; the right entrance region.

I think precipitation coverage will be limited this morning but
should begin to increase as mesoscale lift is augmented by synoptic
scale ascent associated with the upper trough. When and where
precipitation develops today remains uncertain given the lack of
focused low-level convergence but the greatest rain chances are
expected to be over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country (as
usual!). Instability and effective shear values will likely be
sufficient for organized convection. However, with precip becoming
more widespread, I think the ability to realize the full scope of
the instability will be limited. We may see a few elevated "hailers"
today but I think the general trend will be showers and garden
variety thunderstorms. However, I will mention the potential for
severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphicasts.

A Pacific cold front will traverse the CWA tonight, bringing much
drier air from the west and effectively ending rain chances from
west to east after midnight. This front will provide the strongest
surface forcing but it will be brief and transient. Some of this
activity may linger into Thursday morning but the bulk will be to
our east by then. I lowered precipitation amounts a bit given the
lack of focus, but precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches
suggest that there remains some potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Eastern areas may see around 1 inch on average but most of
the area will likely see less than 1/2 inch.

Johnson

LONG TERM...

/Thursday through Sunday/
Looks like a quiet period across West Central Texas. The upper level
trough will be east of the area, taking the convection with it. The
upper level pattern will bring a low amplitude ridge over the
Southern Plains by this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in
behind a secondary cool front. Also, northwest winds will pick up
behind the current cool front on Thursday with some gusts near 25
mph. However, the airmass behind the front is Pacific so
temperatures will only be slightly cooler for Thursday and Friday.
Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be mainly in the
40s. It will be slightly cooler for Saturday and Sunday with highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
Pattern begins to shift back to upper level cyclonic flow across the
Southern Plains early next week, with a broad trough located across
the western U.S. This system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to our area. The ECMWF model is more amplified with
the trough than the GFS model. Will go with more progressive GFS
solution for now. Also, there may be a tropical connection from the
Eastern Pacific. Low level moisture will struggle to return early on
due to surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. However,
modified moisture will return by Monday and Tuesday on southerly
flow with dewpoints in the 50s to possibly lower 60s. Will go with
slight chance to chance POPS for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain mild with highs in the 70s. The rain will end by late
Tuesday night and a dry forecast is in store for Wednesday.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  75  49  75 /  50  50   5   0   0
San Angelo  78  59  78  42  79 /  50  50   5   0   0
Junction  80  64  81  38  80 /  70  70  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 956 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN VIRGINIA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER ONTARIO WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING EASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE 12Z/8AM RNK SOUNDING
SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP 550 MB WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND PWATS THAT HAVE CLIMBED TO 1.05 INCHES. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST. DECIDED TO RAISE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. DESPITE WARM FRONT...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH
850MB...CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TWO SHORT WAVE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND FROM
SOUTHERN OHIO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO A WARMER AIR MASS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WERE
STARTING OUT MILD SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD FOR TONIGHT
     LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH IN LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WELL-ADVERTISED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THURSDAY WILL BE VERY MILD
AGAIN WITH TEMPS HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD COVER BUT STILL
REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL UPPER 60S WEST TO MID-70S EAST. FRONTAL
TIMING ON LATEST MODELS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH FRONT REACHING WESTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST RANGING GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES. THIS DESPITE VERY HIGH MOISTURE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH BOTH
NAM/GFS PWATS OF 1.45 INCHES AT KRNK WHICH IS >99 PERCENTILE (+3
SD) FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE FAIRLY RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BEST
FORCING LIMITING THE DURATION OF RAINFALL. STILL IF THE BOUNDARY
IS HELD UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER..APPROACHING 1 INCH.

MAIN CONTINUING CONCERN IS STILL DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SHEAR AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS SPC SHOWS SLIGHT
RISK JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY 12Z/FRI. POSSIBLE
SVR GUSTS COULD DEVELOP IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION THAT FORMS AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW SSW WINDS AT H85
RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 MPH ON GFS/NAM ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-09Z FRI.
CAPE IS OBVIOUSLY VERY LIMITED OR NEGLIGIBLE DURING THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES TOWARD MID TO LATE DAY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY IS HELD UP AT ALL TO ALLOW FOR LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF CWA BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH COOLER BUT NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AIR DROPPING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS ONLY FALL OFF TO AROUND 5C
BY EARLY SATURDAY. START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SEASONABLE WITH HIGH SATURDAY FROM UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TO A TREND
TOWARD LOWER TEMPERATURES... AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD A DOWNSLOPE
SUBSIDENCE FLOW THAT WILL GREATLY LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN
THIS REGION AND ADD AN ELEMENT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THAT WILL
ONLY SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...AND LIMITED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE COAST. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ONSHORE THE SC/GA COASTS WHICH WILL THEN HEAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS TREND WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING THAT MOISTURE TO
BE REALIZED IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHORT WAVE MOVING OVER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AT 11Z
CEILINGS WERE FINALLY LOWERING TO MVFR. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP BELOW 3000FT.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. SREF AND LOCAL WRF...AS WELL AS
OTHER MODELS... BRING SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
WITH TIMING. THE LONGER IT TAKES THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA THE LONGER CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE RAIN THIS MORNING...FOG FORMATION IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
THE AIR MASS CERTAINLY STAYS MOIST ENOUGH AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT
FOG.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI...WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
+SHRA BR/FG. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THU AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THU SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. EXPECT
GUSTY SW WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AS WELL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

 318 PM MDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN COLORADO AT THIS
TIME WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER AREA. MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASING ACROSS MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RADAR ALSO INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL LARIMER COUNTY...LOOKS TO BE CSI INDUCED AS UPPER
JET NOW NOSING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO
DURING THE EVENING WITH FLOW BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BEST LIFT TO OCCUR THIS EVENING WHEN FLOW IS WEST SOUTHWEST. BEST
OROGRAPHICS OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT MID LEVEL ASCENT WEAKENS WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. STILL A FAIRLY GOOD SHOT OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. FOOTHILL AREAS COULD ALSO SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS
EVENING AS THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST...
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. ACROSS PLAINS...MID LEVEL ASCENT TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. MODELS STILL
SHOWING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE. PRIMARILY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. LATEST RAP INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
AROUND 2 INCHES IN AN AREA FROM EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY ACROSS
NORTHER ELBERT COUNTY. OVERNIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ON
THURSDAY...FAIRLY STRONG AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA. GOOD OROGRAPHICS AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES. WINDS TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ...WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS PLAINS...
COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE...MIXING AND INCREASING NORTHWEST
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL CREATE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER. SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 40 MPH
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A WEAK
ANTICYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE DENVER AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE DENVER AREA. TEMPERATURE AND
THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S. LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT WARM WHILE THE NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS A BIT
COOL.

.LONG TERM...DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF EXITING
UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ON THE MTN RIDGES AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
ACCORDING TO NAM...WRF AND GFS CROSS SECTION WIND PROFILES...
STRONGEST WINDS ON THE MTN RIDGE AND UP UP ALONG THE WYOMING/
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE MORNING...AND ON THE PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY.
PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH HIGHER TERRAIN AND 30-40 MPH ON THE
PLAINS. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND WESTERN
VALLEYS WILL ESCAPE MUCH OF THIS WIND. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP
SOON AFTER PASSAGE OF QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MODELS
SHOW SWINGING OVER THE WESTERN WYOMING. WEAK POSITIVE QG FORCING AND
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN MTNS THURSDAY NIGHT. NEW SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO STAY
ON THE LOW SIDE DUE THE RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS 1-2 DEG C WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE WITH
DOWNING FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE. TEMPERATURE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS
MUCH AS 3-4DEG C WARMER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADIENT ALOFT SLACKENS AND SO
DO WIND SPEEDS WITH AN BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROPAGATING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. WARMEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVER
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. SFC TEMPERATURES RESPOND
WITH A 1-2DEG C WARM UP FRIDAY-SUNDAY. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...LONG WAVE PATTERN SHIFTS EASTWARD
ALLOWING THE NEXT UPPER WAVE TO SWING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS OPEN WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT BASIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. FROM THERE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN MOVING THIS SYSTEM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT BIT OF A SLOWLY PACE THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED BY
EARLIER MODEL RUNS. ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH THE TROUGH IS DIGGING A BIT
MORE AS IT PASSES OVER COLORADO DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MODELS SHOW A
COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO
NERN COLORADO BY EARLY ON MONDAY. ASSUMING ALL THIS HAPPENS...SHOULD
SEE A STEADY FALL IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND A STEADY INCREASE IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. PRECIP SHOULD TURN
TO ALL SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. ON THE
PLAINS...BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...SHOWERY PRECIP WOULD
BEGIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND AS UPSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS/
DEEPENS WITH THE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD...PRECIP WOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY BECOME ALL SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
REALLY TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR CERTAIN IF ALL THIS WILL OCCUR. FOR NOW
WILL GENERALLY GO WITH 30-40 PCT POPS ON THE PLAINS AND MTN
VALLEYS...AND 40 60 PCT POPS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE TWO DAY
PERIOD. BEYOND TUESDAY...FORECAST LESS CERTAIN. ALL DEPENDS ON HOW
FAST TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT. FOR NOW WILL TREND POPS DOWNWARD
AND BEGIN TO RAISE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...FINALLY VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING AT
AREA AIRPORTS WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000 FEET TO DEVELOP WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
OF AROUND 2500-3000 FEET. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR AT APA.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH COULD
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER 01Z. AT THIS TIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
END BY 06Z AND WINDS DECREASE AND DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS. VFR
CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL WITH UNLIMITED CEILINGS. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 8
KTS...THEN INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 20Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A WEAK ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z WHICH
COULD CREATE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...D-L




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
547 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA
THROUGH 16Z.

WHILE A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE BECOME CONCERNED ABOUT VISIBILITY
TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL WHERE HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTH INTO COOLER NOCTURNAL AIR MASS. SUSPECT VISIBILITY
WILL DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. HAVE KEPT IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AND
CHICAGO CENTER OUT OF ADVISORY...AS WELL AS MOST OF NORTHWEST
INDIANA AT THIS POINT DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALONG LAKE/CITY AND
LOWER DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWEST IN. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE LOW ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...THOUGH IT APPEARS FOG OF SOME
SUBSTANCE WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING HOURS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
354 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDY SKIES OF ANY NOTE.
SHOWERS WHICH HAD OCCURRED LAST EVENING HAD MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRAVERSED
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR OMAHA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ATOP THE FRONTAL
ZONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
KANSAS/NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE AREA. SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THEN...AS
LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND 145 KT UPPER
JET STREAK LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT. MILD
AND MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AN AXIS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTH WITH THE
WARM SECTOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...COMBINING WITH STRONG DYNAMICS TO
PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS. TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE COOLING.
TEMPS WILL NOT DIP TOO MUCH TONIGHT HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR
ALOFT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 TEMPS
THURSDAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL LIKELY TEMPER READINGS SOMEWHAT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IL THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING...MAINTAINING HIGH
PROBABILITY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE DAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GUIDANCE RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.80 INCHES TO IN EXCESS OF
2.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

BREEZY AND COOLER...BUT NOT COLD...WEATHER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE REGION TOWARD EVENING...WITH 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS
AND A POCKET OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS SQUEEZE OUT
A LITTLE PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...COOLING
TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR TO COME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
INTO THE 20S IN THE OUTLYING TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WITH
LONGER RANGE MODEL RUNS DEPICTING ANOTHER DEEP LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* IFR TO LIFR CIGS RETURNING BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
  THROUGH THE PERIOD.

* SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THIS EVENING AND BECOMING
  WIDESPREAD...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT
  AND THURSDAY.

* SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

THE WEATHER WILL BE MESSY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A POTENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

CIGS HAVE REBOUNDED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
FRINGE OF THE LOWER IFR CLOUDS. THIS AREA INCLUDES KORD...KMDW AND
KGYY AND EXTENDS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA.
HOWEVER...FARTHER WEST...THE VERY LOW CLOUDS AND VIS CONTINUES...AND
LIKELY WILL THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND
OR JUST UNDER 10 KT.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MIDNIGHT AS THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS
EVENING...ROUGHLY AFTER 23 UTC. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO
LIKELY TANK INTO THE IFR TO LIFR CATEGORY AGAIN BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE CONTINUED INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN TAF SITES THAT SEE IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL A SMALL THREAT OF A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...BUT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS LAPSE RATES APPEAR TO
BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDER. IN SPITE OF THIS...I HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAF AS A VCTS...SINCE THE PROB 30
GROUP NEEDED TO BE DROPPED WITHIN THE FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE NEW
TAF.

PERIODS OF RAIN...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LOOKS TO SET UP LATER
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF LOWER VIS AND IFR TO LIFR CIGS ACROSS
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA VERY LATE IN THE
DAY...LIKELY AFTER 22 UTC THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH MORE
WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME VERY GUSTY FOR A PERIOD THURSDAY
EVENING.

KJB


//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT AND
  MUCH OF THURSDAY.

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/TRENDS.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
439 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH IS RAISING ISSUES
WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
FOR TODAY...THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW APPROACHING AND WARM FRONT SURGING
NORTHWARD TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 30 KT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS STILL
HOVERING AROUND 30 KT. A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35 KT ARE STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE...THINK ANY PREVAILING GALES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUST LIKELY. WINDS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WELL INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF TO 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS BEFORE WEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN. ITS DURING THIS TIME WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARDS TO THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
CONFIDENCE AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LOW. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE
MAINTAINED 30 KT WINDS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR
GALES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
     UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Have let the dense fog advisory expire at 10 am. Still seeing some
areas of dense fog lingering, mainly across the eastern CWA, but
this will continue to lift over the next 30 to 60 minutes.

Focus in the near term is shifting to elevated convection moving
across northeast Missouri and about to cross into far western
Illinois. Main cluster of storms southwest of Quincy should bypass
our CWA, but showers/storms continue to develop further west
across Iowa and Missouri. These should become more surface based
with time. In addition, RAP and NAM models continue to show some
development across southern Illinois as the warm front lifts
northward toward our area. Latest visible satellite imagery
showing some decent thinning of the clouds in that area to help
make the air more unstable there.

Have done some timing adjustments of the rain chances for our area
today, but general trend is OK for now. Temperatures remain on
target to reach the lower 70s over the southern half of the CWA
later today, once the front arrives.

Geelhart


&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Widespread IFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with
ceilings typically around 500 feet or below. May see ceilings rise
temporarily this afternoon as a warm front moves up from the
south. Most of the earlier fog has lifted to around 3SM, but still
will see some limited low visibility of 1/4 to 1/2SM around
KPIA/KBMI for another couple hours.

Convection will remain a significant concern as well. Storms near
KUIN have been weakening recently as they move east, but more
widespread showers/storms in Iowa and Missouri will move in during
mid to late afternoon. Showers and periodic thunderstorms are then
likely the remainder of the forecast period, although thunder
potential will be more limited between 06-12Z. Late in the period,
a cold front will be moving in from the west, swinging winds to
the northwest. Areas near KCMI should stay southerly until 18Z,
with wind gusts of around 25 knots developing by late morning.

Geelhart

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 222 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Main forecast challenges continue to be rain chances over the next
couple of days, as well as, severe weather threat Thursday afternoon.

07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure near Kansas City, with
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward across central
Missouri into far southern Illinois. A few showers are occurring
immediately along/north of the boundary, with an extensive area of
fog/drizzle extending much further north toward the I-80 corridor.
Aloft...deep upper low continues to spin over the Great Basin,
while ridging prevails downstream over the Plains into the Midwest.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

As western CONUS upper trough slowly tracks eastward, rising upper
heights ahead of the system will help give the stationary frontal
boundary a push northward today. High-res models are in good
agreement that the boundary will reach the northern KILX CWA by
around midday, then will lift into northern Illinois/southern
Wisconsin later this afternoon. Fog/drizzle will be ongoing
along/north of the front through the morning hours, but will
gradually dissipate and shift northward as the morning progresses.
Winds will initially be from the E/SE, but will veer to the south
during the afternoon, helping bring much warmer air into the
region. High temperatures will range from the middle 60s far north
around Lacon and Galesburg, to the lower 70s along/south of I-70.
In addition to the warmer conditions, showers and a few
thunderstorms will become more numerous ahead of the approaching
upper trough and associated cold front late in the day. As a
result, will carry likely to categorical POPs along/west of I-55
for mid to late afternoon, tapering down to just chance POPs
further east along the Indiana border.

As upper wave/cold front get closer, increasing southerly flow
will bring copious amounts of moisture northward into the area
tonight into Thursday. 00z Oct 30 KILX upper air sounding already
showed precipitable water values of just over 1 inch and upstream
soundings at KSGF and forecast projections indicate values rising
to around 1.5 inches tonight/Thursday. Given rich moisture and
strong upper dynamics, will carry categorical POPs across the
board through Thursday.

Cold front will push into Illinois on Thursday, gradually exiting
into Indiana by evening. GFS shows a clean FROPA late Thursday
afternoon, while the NAM is hinting at a weak surface wave along
the boundary potentially slowing its eastward progression a bit.
If the NAM is correct, surface low will track from northeast
Oklahoma midday Thursday into southwest Indiana by evening. This
could allow a slightly more unstable airmass just off to the
southwest of Illinois to briefly spill into the SE KILX CWA during
the late afternoon and evening. If this occurs, this somewhat
enhanced instability in conjunction with impressive 0-6km wind
shear of 70 to 80kt could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms
along the advancing front. As a result, the latest Day 2 outlook
from SPC has placed areas along/south of I-70 in a slight risk for
severe. Given low CAPE/high shear environment, biggest threat
would likely be damaging wind gusts. Further north across the
remainder of the CWA, widespread clouds/precip will keep
instability parameters even weaker, so threat for strong storms is
lower. Since front may be delayed by surface wave, will hold onto
chance POPs through Thursday evening, before drying things out
after midnight.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes behind the departing
front Friday into Saturday. Models continue to suggest clouds and
showers beneath this system will impact northern Illinois into
north-central Indiana, but will remain just N/NE of the KILX CWA.
Main story will be the cooler weather, with highs on Saturday only
making it into the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will build
into the region by early next week, resulting in cool/dry weather
for both Sunday and Monday. Models are still in disagreement with
regards to the next approaching system, with the GFS trying to
spread precip back into Illinois as early as Monday night. Given
sprawling surface high and dry airmass in place, think the slower
ECMWF is the way to go in the extended. As a result, will maintain
dry forecast Monday night followed by low chance POPs on Tuesday.
Best rain chances will likely hold off until Tuesday night into
Wednesday as cold front slowly pushes into the region.

Barnes


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1106 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
547 AM CDT

UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST 2/3 OF THE CWA
THROUGH 16Z.

WHILE A FEW SPOTS HAVE DEVELOPED LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS NORTHERN
IL EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVE BECOME CONCERNED ABOUT VISIBILITY
TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL WHERE HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NORTH INTO COOLER NOCTURNAL AIR MASS. SUSPECT VISIBILITY
WILL DETERIORATE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPING. HAVE KEPT IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AND
CHICAGO CENTER OUT OF ADVISORY...AS WELL AS MOST OF NORTHWEST
INDIANA AT THIS POINT DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALONG LAKE/CITY AND
LOWER DEW POINTS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWEST IN. CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE LOW ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE...THOUGH IT APPEARS FOG OF SOME
SUBSTANCE WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING HOURS.

RATZER

//PREV DISCUSSION...
354 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG AND CLOUDY SKIES OF ANY NOTE.
SHOWERS WHICH HAD OCCURRED LAST EVENING HAD MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT TRAVERSED
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY NEAR OMAHA...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RELATIVELY WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ATOP THE FRONTAL
ZONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
KANSAS/NEBRASKA APPROACHES THE AREA. SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASING BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THEN...AS
LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND 145 KT UPPER
JET STREAK LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT. MILD
AND MOIST AIR WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND AN AXIS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES WILL SURGE NORTH WITH THE
WARM SECTOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY...COMBINING WITH STRONG DYNAMICS TO
PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL TOTALS. TEMPS
WILL RISE INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS TODAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROVIDE SOME LAKE COOLING.
TEMPS WILL NOT DIP TOO MUCH TONIGHT HOWEVER WITH THE WARM FRONT
MOVING NORTH...AND IN FACT WILL LIKELY RISE OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR
ALOFT COULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 TEMPS
THURSDAY UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND RAIN
WILL LIKELY TEMPER READINGS SOMEWHAT WITH MID 60S EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN IL THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING...MAINTAINING HIGH
PROBABILITY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE DAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM GUIDANCE RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.80 INCHES TO IN EXCESS OF
2.00 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

BREEZY AND COOLER...BUT NOT COLD...WEATHER WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE REGION TOWARD EVENING...WITH 80 METER HEIGHT FALLS
AND A POCKET OF COLDER AIR ALOFT. MOST GUIDANCE MEMBERS SQUEEZE OUT
A LITTLE PRECIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...COOLING
TO THE UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SATURDAY IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS APPEAR TO COME LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS
INTO THE 20S IN THE OUTLYING TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...WITH
LONGER RANGE MODEL RUNS DEPICTING ANOTHER DEEP LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE...BUT WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
RAIN MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* MVFR VIS CONTINUING.

* IFR CIGS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ONLY A SHORT
  PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

* LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

* SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
  EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
  THIS TIME AS WELL.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED OVER ALL OF THE TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH FOG AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS WELL...AND WITH
RFD OBSERVING DENSE FOG. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS LOW STRATUS HAS
MARKED THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH EITHER IFR OR LOW END
MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. WITH A WARM FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH OUT AHEAD
OF IT...SEE NO REASON WHY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOO MUCH. WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MID DAY BUT WITH A
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AREAS TO STAY LOCKED IN THESE IFR
CEILINGS. CONFIDENCE WAS LOW WITH REGARDS TO KEEPING IFR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO ONCE AGAIN HAVE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
LOW END MVFR WHILE FOG IMPROVES AS WELL TODAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. AFTER
POSSIBLE SCT LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE PREVAILING PRECIP
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT INCLUDED LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT
DUE TO THIS POSSIBLE PRECIP AND ESPECIALLY WITH A CHANCE FOR
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LIFR CEILINGS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 9-10 KT...BUT SHOULD STAY UNDER 10 KT TODAY. THEN
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT WHILE TURNING TO THE SOUTH WITH
WARM FROPA...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT. ITS POSSIBLE THAT WITH FROPA
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT HELP CEILINGS/VIS IMPROVE.
ALTHOUGH WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND EXPECTED PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...HAVE CONTINUED THE PESSIMISTIC
TRENDS AND KEPT IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RODRIGUEZ

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SHOWERS/TRENDS.

RODRIGUEZ/KB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.MARINE...
439 AM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH IS RAISING ISSUES
WITH REGARDS TO STRENGTH OF WINDS THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
FOR TODAY...THE GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE REMAINS RATHER WEAK WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW APPROACHING AND WARM FRONT SURGING
NORTHWARD TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHILE
INCREASING TO 30 KT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY...WITH SPEEDS STILL
HOVERING AROUND 30 KT. A PERIOD OF GALES TO 35 KT ARE STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR SURGING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE...THINK ANY PREVAILING GALES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUST LIKELY. WINDS
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS WELL INTO THE 20-25
KT RANGE...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF TO 30 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE AS THIS
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A
BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS BEFORE WEST WINDS TO 30 KT ARE LIKELY ONCE
AGAIN. ITS DURING THIS TIME WHEN MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARDS TO THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
CONFIDENCE AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS LOW. ONCE AGAIN...HAVE
MAINTAINED 30 KT WINDS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR
GALES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN.

RODRIGUEZ

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-
     ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039
     UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY.

IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...INZ019 UNTIL 11 AM WEDNESDAY.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1015 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1015 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Have let the dense fog advisory expire at 10 am. Still seeing some
areas of dense fog lingering, mainly across the eastern CWA, but
this will continue to lift over the next 30 to 60 minutes.

Focus in the near term is shifting to elevated convection moving
across northeast Missouri and about to cross into far western
Illinois. Main cluster of storms southwest of Quincy should bypass
our CWA, but showers/storms continue to develop further west
across Iowa and Missouri. These should become more surface based
with time. In addition, RAP and NAM models continue to show some
development across southern Illinois as the warm front lifts
northward toward our area. Latest visible satellite imagery
showing some decent thinning of the clouds in that area to help
make the air more unstable there.

Have done some timing adjustments of the rain chances for our area
today, but general trend is OK for now. Temperatures remain on
target to reach the lower 70s over the southern half of the CWA
later today, once the front arrives.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 630 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Main forecast challenge will be timing of improving vsbys acrs the
area this morning...and then coverage of rain and tsra this afternoon
and tonight. Widespread VLIFR conditions across the area early this
morning as a very moist air mass is being advected northward into
our area in advance of a warm front currently over southern Illinois.
This boundary will lift north this morning which should bring about
a gradual improvement in cigs and vsbys aftr 15z. We will then turn
our attention to a band of showers and thunderstorms which should
be pushing into our area in the 19z-22z time frame...with any
cig or vsby improvement seen late this morning into this afternoon
deteriorating once again after the rain starts. Once darkness sets
in early this evening...we look for LIFR and some VLIFR cigs to
prevail in rain and fog thru the remainder of the forecast period.
Right now it appears the fog will not be as thick as this morning.
Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts this morning, and then
veer into a south direction this afternoon as the warm front lifts
north of our area with speeds in the 12 to 17 knot range.

Smith

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 222 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

Main forecast challenges continue to be rain chances over the next
couple of days, as well as, severe weather threat Thursday afternoon.

07z/2am surface analysis shows low pressure near Kansas City, with
stationary frontal boundary extending eastward across central
Missouri into far southern Illinois. A few showers are occurring
immediately along/north of the boundary, with an extensive area of
fog/drizzle extending much further north toward the I-80 corridor.
Aloft...deep upper low continues to spin over the Great Basin,
while ridging prevails downstream over the Plains into the Midwest.

SHORT TERM...Today through Friday

As western CONUS upper trough slowly tracks eastward, rising upper
heights ahead of the system will help give the stationary frontal
boundary a push northward today. High-res models are in good
agreement that the boundary will reach the northern KILX CWA by
around midday, then will lift into northern Illinois/southern
Wisconsin later this afternoon. Fog/drizzle will be ongoing
along/north of the front through the morning hours, but will
gradually dissipate and shift northward as the morning progresses.
Winds will initially be from the E/SE, but will veer to the south
during the afternoon, helping bring much warmer air into the
region. High temperatures will range from the middle 60s far north
around Lacon and Galesburg, to the lower 70s along/south of I-70.
In addition to the warmer conditions, showers and a few
thunderstorms will become more numerous ahead of the approaching
upper trough and associated cold front late in the day. As a
result, will carry likely to categorical POPs along/west of I-55
for mid to late afternoon, tapering down to just chance POPs
further east along the Indiana border.

As upper wave/cold front get closer, increasing southerly flow
will bring copious amounts of moisture northward into the area
tonight into Thursday. 00z Oct 30 KILX upper air sounding already
showed precipitable water values of just over 1 inch and upstream
soundings at KSGF and forecast projections indicate values rising
to around 1.5 inches tonight/Thursday. Given rich moisture and
strong upper dynamics, will carry categorical POPs across the
board through Thursday.

Cold front will push into Illinois on Thursday, gradually exiting
into Indiana by evening. GFS shows a clean FROPA late Thursday
afternoon, while the NAM is hinting at a weak surface wave along
the boundary potentially slowing its eastward progression a bit.
If the NAM is correct, surface low will track from northeast
Oklahoma midday Thursday into southwest Indiana by evening. This
could allow a slightly more unstable airmass just off to the
southwest of Illinois to briefly spill into the SE KILX CWA during
the late afternoon and evening. If this occurs, this somewhat
enhanced instability in conjunction with impressive 0-6km wind
shear of 70 to 80kt could lead to strong to severe thunderstorms
along the advancing front. As a result, the latest Day 2 outlook
from SPC has placed areas along/south of I-70 in a slight risk for
severe. Given low CAPE/high shear environment, biggest threat
would likely be damaging wind gusts. Further north across the
remainder of the CWA, widespread clouds/precip will keep
instability parameters even weaker, so threat for strong storms is
lower. Since front may be delayed by surface wave, will hold onto
chance POPs through Thursday evening, before drying things out
after midnight.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday

Upper trough will dig into the Great Lakes behind the departing
front Friday into Saturday. Models continue to suggest clouds and
showers beneath this system will impact northern Illinois into
north-central Indiana, but will remain just N/NE of the KILX CWA.
Main story will be the cooler weather, with highs on Saturday only
making it into the lower to middle 50s. High pressure will build
into the region by early next week, resulting in cool/dry weather
for both Sunday and Monday. Models are still in disagreement with
regards to the next approaching system, with the GFS trying to
spread precip back into Illinois as early as Monday night. Given
sprawling surface high and dry airmass in place, think the slower
ECMWF is the way to go in the extended. As a result, will maintain
dry forecast Monday night followed by low chance POPs on Tuesday.
Best rain chances will likely hold off until Tuesday night into
Wednesday as cold front slowly pushes into the region.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 332 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER NW MO AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LOCATED FROM ALGONA THROUGH
CRESTON.  THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS STILL IN
NORTHERN MO AND IS JUST STARTING TO INCH INTO FAR SOUTHERN/SW IA.
THE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO TRENDING DOWN WITH POPS/QPF...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.  THE RAP ACTUALLY HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON
THINGS FOR TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS WERE TRENDING LOWER WITH
POPS...NAM/GFS STILL LOOKED A BIT OVERDONE AND HIT QPF MORE THAN
WHAT I THINK WILL OCCUR.  CONSEQUENTLY THE AREA FOR PRECIP THIS
EVENING WILL BE ALONG OUR FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS...NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH I THINK THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL OCCUR SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

I END POPS THIS EVENING FROM W/NW TO ABOUT THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z.
INSTABILITY AND FORCING SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT AS WELL SO THUNDER
CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 06Z BUT STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY 12Z.  PATCHY FOG STILL A CONCERN AS SOUNDING SHOW SATURATED
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.  FOR NOW I AM NOT CONSIDERING DENSE
FOG THOUGH LOWER LYING AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED AN INCH OF
RAIN TODAY COULD SEE AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. I WILL
BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT ON THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG LATER
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE EXITING OF OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND ANY
LEFTOVER ISO THUNDER WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z. OTHERWISE
...EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
HALF THROUGH MIDDAY FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE OFFSET BY SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LINGERING CLOUDS FOR THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR 50 HIGHS FAR NORTH
WHERE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE SOONER. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/WEAK WAVE
WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK
COMPARED TO CLEARING.  LIMITED WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS...SO HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THE DAY. THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PICK UP A
WAVE IN THE FLOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA NOW...WHICH
WILL RACE EAST AND THEN DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THOUGH GENERALLY MOISTURE STARVED...THIS FEATURE SHOULD
AMPLIFY AS IT HOOKS UP WITH THE H500 TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO
THE SYSTEM MOVING EAST. THE EURO/GEM ALSO SUGGEST A BRIEF SHOT OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FEATURE REINFORCING THE
COOL WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE AND ARE ALREADY WARMING UP THE COLUMN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD MED RANGE SOLUTIONS AND DELAY
ONSET OF WARM AIR UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH A H500
TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA EXPECTED TO DIG
ONSHORE AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY...A NICE
FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY.
H850 TEMPS WILL QUICKLY TURN THE CORNER AND RISE TO 3C TO 6C BY LATE
DAY...COMBINED WITH MIXING TO 875MB MAXT SHOULD RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SOUTH AND AND LOWER 50S SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A DEEP SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION SETS UP WITH THE
GULF/PACIFIC BEING CHANNELED NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE EXACT POSITION...BUT OVERALL
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...EVEN IF MODEST OVER THE AREA...WILL BE
WELCOMED TO ADD TO TODAYS RAIN EVENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL WAVES APPROACHING THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO
MIDWEEK KEEPING RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW...MODESTLY COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM SO
HIGHS SHOULD TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

AS THE RAINFALL IS MOVING THROUGH THE TAF LOCATIONS IT IS LIFTING
VISIBILITIES AND LIFTING THE DENSE FOG.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE AND AS SUCH IMPROVING VSBYS.  HOWEVER...AS A SFC LOW LIFTS
OUT OF SE NEB AND PULLS A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA I
EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS AFT 20Z AND CIGS TO LOWER ONCE
AGAIN TO IFR CONDITIONS.  BEST CHANCE OF STORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER ALL
LOCATIONS.  CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE UNTIL AFT 31/14Z
WHEN THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 424 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THIS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...AREA WILL COME UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH...PUSHING OUR PWAT VALUES FROM 0.75IN (WHICH IS
STILL 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) TO OVER 1.0IN (OR 200-225 PERCENT OF
NORMAL) OVER THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO LEAD TO BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE WEATHER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT BEFORE
THAT OCCURS...AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL STRETCH NORTHEAST
FROM THAT LOW AND ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THAT SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS (AND PRODUCING THE AREAS OF
CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS)...ALONG
WITH THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST AND NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EAST TONIGHT.

AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAS BEEN MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING VERY BROAD AND
COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA...IT/S HARD TO PIN DOWN AREAS WHERE THE
SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED AND WHEN THEY WILL OCCUR. FEEL THAT THE
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND THEN RAMP UP (ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
CWA) TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN IOWA MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SINCE THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DID ADD MENTION OF PATCHY/AREAS OF
DRIZZLE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THIS BROAD WAA...BUT SEEM TO FOLLOW THAT
SIMILAR IDEA...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOW THE COVERAGE TO BE LACKING. IF
THE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MUCAPE TONIGHT (50-150
J/KG). IN ADDITION...850-700/500MB LAPSE RATES DO INCREASE TO
6.5C/KM...SO CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. IF CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHER ON SHOWER
LOCATION AND INTENSITY...WOULD ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER AND WILL
PASS ALONG TO THE EVENING SHIFT ON A POSSIBLE ADDITION.

ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH...HAVE SHOWN A DRYING TREND TO THE
POPS OVER THE WEST THIRD LATE TONIGHT. WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST...THINK THE UPSLOPE DIRECTION TO THE
WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE.

HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FOG FOR TONIGHT...BUT SPREAD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDED TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND AND LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG ALREADY IN PLACE...THINK THAT IS REASONABLE. AFTER THE
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH...COULD SEE VISIBILITIES FALL TOWARDS
1/4-1/2MI IN THE CENTRAL CWA AND DID ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG.

FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVES AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...SHOULD SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND IN THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT IT TO BE
A DREARY DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO COVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE AREAS/PATCHY FOG OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND IN AREAS FAVORED BY LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE FOR THAT PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN CWA.

HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE SHORTWAVE AND PV ANOMALY WILL
EJECT OUT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFY THE LOW AS IT
PULLS NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
VARIABLE ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH A CONSENSUS NOW SHOWING IT
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AT 00Z. BUT THEY HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON IT RAPIDLY DEEPENING THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TRACK GREATLY INFLUENCES THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CWA AND
HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH POPS INCREASING IN THAT AREA
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...THE
CLOUDY/DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO UPPER
MICHIGAN THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN DISAGREEMENT AS TO
THE LOWS POSITION BY 00-6Z FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE
SLIGHT...THE LOCATION OF HIGHEST QPF WILL SHIFT DEPENDING ON THE LOW
TRACK. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL DIFFER
GREATLY FROM WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST NOW.

GENERALLY...THE 12Z GFS WRAPS THE SFC LOW UP SOONER THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF/12Z NAM RUN. THE LOW TRACKS FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT 00Z
TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY 06Z...DEEPENING FROM 989MB TO 982MB. THE
NAM ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A 992MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
AT 00Z...WITH A TROUGH EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE. BY
6Z...THIS LOW DEEPENS TO 982MB OVER SAGINAW BAY. AT 00Z...THE 00Z
ECMWF POSITIONS A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN...A SORT OF
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM...BUT THEN ALIGNS ITSELF MORE
FAVORABLY WITH THE GFS BY 6Z...WITH THE LOW OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON. THE 12Z REGIONAL GEM BASICALLY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/NAM...SO THIS WAS THE PRIMARY MODEL USED TO CREATE THE
WINDS/POPS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE GFS TRACK SEEMS TO BE TOO FAR
NORTH...AND IT STARTS TRENDING SOUTHWARD IN THE 6Z TIME
FRAME...WHICH MAKES ME FEEL MORE CONFIDENT USING THE GEM SOLUTION.
EXPECT LL FGEN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE TO SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/NEAR THE LAKE MI SHORE FROM 00Z-06Z.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BE GREATEST ALONG THIS AXIS. HIGHER
QPF AMOUNTS WERE LIMITED TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...AS THIS IS
WHERE THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED. MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS ABUNDANT...AS PWATS RISE TO AROUND 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST.

THANKFULLY...850MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 0-9C DURING THIS EVENT...SO NO
SNOW IS EXPECTED. OVERALL TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES ACROSS THE CWA
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN EVENT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE FRIDAY MORNING-SATURDAY TIME
FRAME...850MB TEMPS BECOME COOLER...AROUND -3 TO -6 AT THE
WORST...AND MAINLY OUT WEST. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
INLAND FROM THE LAKES DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL...WITH
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
REMAIN THROUGH 06-12Z SUN...THOUGH THEY WILL TAPER OFF WITH TIME AS
THE FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND MOISTURE DWINDLES.
THE WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A
BREAK TO THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER.

FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO ONTARIO. THE ECMWF PULLS
THIS SURFACE LOW FURTHEST NORTH OVER JAMES BAY...AND THE GFS KEEPS
IT OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. EITHER WAY...UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND 850MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE ZERO
FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN CHANCES AS A RESULT...THOUGH
OVERNIGHT/MORNING COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR SOME AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
3-6HRS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT...AS THERE ARE
POCKETS OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE KEWEENAW THAT WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
RISING OF THE CEILINGS TO VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE WARM
MOIST AIR HAS BEEN INFLUENCING KIWD/KSAW THROUGH THE MORNING AND
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KSAW OCCASIONALLY
GOING TO LIFR CEILINGS WITH THE FAVORABLE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS (DUE TO INCREASED
MIXING) BUT THE OVERALL IDEA SHOULD REMAIN.

THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE LIFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL
DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THE WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL FAVOR DRIZZLE
FOR KCMX/KIWD AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW. AT
KSAW...THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND EXPECT FOG TO BE THE MAIN VISIBILITY REDUCER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LOW
WILL SLIDE A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND WILL
LEAD TO WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 20KTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST
TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW FURTHER
INTENSIFIES AND MOVES ACROSS LAKE HURON ON THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS GUSTS UP TO 30KTS OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND TO 20-25KTS ELSEWHERE. IF THE
LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...COULD SEE SOME GALES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE LAKE.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT
WILL LEAVE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD STAY
BELOW 20KTS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY AND LEAD TO
WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A
LOW MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 142 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GRT LKS BTWN TROF OVER ERN CANADA AND A RDG IN THE PLAINS
DOWNSTREAM OF CUTOFF LO OVER THE WRN CONUS. AREA OF -SN/-RA OVER UPR
MI RELATED TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K SFCS /ABOUT H85-7/
ON WRN FLANK OF HI PRES RETREATING THRU THE NE CONUS IS TENDING TO
DIMINISH W-E EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR CNVGC/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC ASSOCIATED WITH SLOWLY APRCHG UPR RDG AXIS FM THE
PLAINS. MORE PCPN...MAINLY ISOLD -SHRA...IS LINGERING OVER NW WI
CLOSER TO MOISTER AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB AND S OF A
PRONOUNCED DRY LYR BTWN H8-85 DEPICTED ON THE 00Z INL RAOB. THERE IS
ANOTHER AREA OF LO PRES IN THE SCENTRAL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WRN TROF.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE LINGERING POPS THIS MRNG
ASSOCIATED WITH 290-295K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THEN SURGE OF MORE
PCPN LATER TNGT TIED TO LO PRES NOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE SCENTRAL
PLAINS.

TODAY...PERSISTENT BUT WEAKENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 290-295K
SFCS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST AIR SHOWN ON THE 00Z MPX RAOB WL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLD -SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG MAINLY OVER THE SRN TIER.
BUT UNDER THE INCRSG LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC RELATED TO
DNVA AHEAD OF THE RDG...THIS PCPN SHOULD FADE THIS MRNG. AS THE LLVL
SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF THE DVLPG LO TO THE SW...THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTER AIR WITH PWAT APRCHG 1 INCH TOWARD 00Z WL SUPPORT
A RETURN OF CHC POPS AGAIN OVER THE W. ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER DYNAMIC
FORCING WITH JUST WEAK DEEP LYR QVECTOR CVNGC UNDER UPR CNVGC SHOULD
LIMIT THE COVERAGE/PCPN AMNTS. DESPITE CLDY SKIES...THE STEADY LLVL
WAD WL BRING A WARMER DAY TO THE CWA...WITH HI TEMPS LATER REACHING
WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN INTO THE 50S OVER THE SRN TIER. SO ANY
PCPN WL BE IN THE FORM OF RA.

TNGT...AS UPR JET CORE STREAKS NEWD OUT OF ROCKIES TROF MOVING OUT
INTO THE PLAINS...MODELS INDICATE AREA OF UPR DVGC IN THE EXIT
REGION OF THIS JET WL STREAK NEWD THRU THE UPR LKS LATE TNGT. IN
CONCERT WITH PERSISTENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION THAT LIFTS PWAT OVER AN
INCH /OVER 200 PCT OF NORMAL/...GOING FCST SHOWING CATEGORICAL POPS
ARRIVING FM THE SW LOOKS ON TRACK. BEST CHC FOR THE HEAVIER RA WL BE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E...WHERE THE PWAT IS FCST HIER. THERE SHOULD
BE LTL IF ANY TEMP DROP TNGT...IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE SLOWLY. TENDED
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MOISTER AIR...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL WITH AN UPSLOPE SSE WIND.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HEADS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN CONUS TO END THE WEEK. TROUGH IS RE-ENFORCED OVER THESE AREAS
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STRONG JET ENERGY IN NORTHERN BRANCH DIGS FROM
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND...150+
KT JET LIFTS ACROSS THE CANADAIAN MARITIMES USHERING THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER ROUND OF TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS MIDDLE CONUS BY END OF THE LONG TERM.

MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH GETS GOING TODAY OVER THE PLAINS...
DEEPENS TO A SUB 985MB LOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT EXITS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARD QUEBEC. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT ON NOSE OF 130+ KT JET CORE ARRIVING FROM THE PLAINS...PREFER
DEEPER AND A FARTHER NORTH SFC LOW FOR DAYTIME ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR
TO ECMWF AND LOCAL REGIONAL-WRF. GEM-NH LOOKS SIMILAR AS WELL...AT
LEAST UNTIL MIDDAY THURSDAY. EXPECT SWATH OF RAIN TO SWEEP MAINLY OUT
OF NORTHERN CWA ON THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN SHOWERS UNTIL
AT LEAST MID-LATE AFTN. FORECAST GETS RATHER TRICKY BY THIS POINT.
UNCERTAINTY COMES IN AS PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIFTS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH SECONDARY JET STREAK. LIKELY WILL SEE INTIAL
SFC LOW FADE AWAY AS BETTER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT REGROUPS VCNTY OF LK
MICHIGAN. LIKE THE UKMET /GEM-NH IDEA WITH A SFC LOW DEEPENING TO
LESS THAN 990MB VCNTY OF CNTRL LK MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY. ECMWF IS ON
THIS TRACK NOW AS WELL...SHIFTING AWAY FM A WEAKER LOW VCNTY OF
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NAM SEEMS TOO FAR SOUTH BUT ON THE FLIP SIDE THE
GFS IS PROBABLY TOO FAR NORTHWEST AND TOO DEEP...PERHAPS SUFFERING FM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. MSLP CENTER MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE WIND FCST
WHICH WILL BE A MESS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY WHEN EXACT
TRACK OF SFC LOW IS APPARENT. PRIMARY IMPACT ON WEATHER IS THE NON
NAM IDEA OPENS DOOR FOR FARTHER WEST JET STREAK/DIVERGENCE AND ALSO
SFC-H85 TEMP/MOISTURE ADVECTION. HIGHEST POPS LATER THURSDAY AFTN AND
EVENING ROUGHLY FOR THE EAST HALF OF CWA. STILL COULD BE SOME TSRA AS
WELL AS EASTERN CWA IS ON EDGE OF STEEPER H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND ON
NOSE OF H5-H3 DRY SLOT POKING IN FM SOUTH WHICH WOULD STEEPEN THE
LAPSE RATES.

AS A SIDE NOTE...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FIRST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
DAILY TEMPS SINCE THE 12TH OF OCTOBER. TEMPS THAT START TO SLOWLY
RISE TONIGHT CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 50S ON THURSDAY FROM JUST
ADVECTION ALONE AS SKIES WILL STAY CLOUDY AND MIXING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HIGHER DWPNTS AND SATURATED LOW-LEVELS WITH LIGHT WINDS POINT TO FOG
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN. WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY LATE DAY SHOULD BEGIN TO
SCOUR OUT THE FOG...THOUGH IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY EVENING
ONCE STRONGER NW WINDS ARRIVE TO GET RID OF IT COMPLETELY.

DEEPENING SFC LOW PULLS AWAY FM UPR LAKES LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MSLP DOWN BLO 980MB AT THIS POINT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS NW WINDS ALONG LK SUPERIOR GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. IF LOW TRENDS
ANY FARTHER WEST...WOULD LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF ADVY LEVEL WINDS NEAR
LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE SUCH A DEEP LOW...COLD AIR ARRIVAL FOR FRIDAY
MORNING LAGGING MORE THAN PREVIOUS MODELS HAVE INDICATED. 1000-850MB
THICKNESSES STAYING ABOVE 1300M AND H85 TEMPS STAYING WARMER THAN
-4C INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE WEST WITH RAIN OVR THE
CNTRL AND EAST. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED SFC TEMPS IN THE
UPR 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ALSO SUPPORT IDEA OF MORE RAIN THAN
SNOW FOR MOST OF CWA. A BIT MORE COOLING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH H85
TEMPS -4C TO -6C. THIS IS ALSO THE TIME WHEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE
COMES THROUGH IN WNW FLOW ALOFT. IF IT WAS COLDER WOULD BE MORE
CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WEST DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. AS IT STANDS NOW...ONLY LOOKING AT
DELTA T/S 12-14C WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW. SFC
TEMPS STILL MARGINALLY COLD TOO WITH READINGS EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S AT THE TIME THE STRONGEST LARGER SCALE LIFT IS OCCURRING.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LATE AT
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT LARGER SCALE FORCING IS NOT AS
SUPPORTATIVE BY THAT TIME. GENERALLY...SEEMS THAT THE MARGINALLY COLD
AIRMASS IS GOING TO PUT CRIMP IN EXTENT OF SNOW FROM THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

TROUGHING/COOLER AIR STICKS AROUND UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE. ONSHORE FLOW NEAR LK SUPERIOR FIRST FM THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN EVENTUALLY FM THE NORTH ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY /DELTA T/S OVER 15C/ WILL KEEP LK EFFECT GOING. ANY LK
EFFECT WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THOUGH AS FLOW BECOMING MORE
ANTICYLONIC LEADS TO LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS...LESS
CONVERGENCE...AND MARGINAL MOISTURE BLO INVERSION. ANY LINGERING LK
EFFECT WILL FINALLY CUT OUT OF PICTURE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGER
SCALE WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS.

ON TO THE FAR REACHES OF THE LONG TERM. INDICATIONS ARE STILL
THERE THAT FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS SHOWING
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SLOWER
YET...NOT BRINGING FRONT THROUGH REGION UNTIL TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS MUCH WETTER SCENARIO AS IT HAS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT. SOME CONSISTENCY FM EACH
OF THESE MODELS...SO A CONSENSUS WILL HOLD FOR NOW. CRITICAL
THICKNESSES INDICATE RAIN OR SNOW OR A MIX OF BOTH FOR PYTPE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

WARM MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD
TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
3-6HRS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE MOST DIFFICULT...AS THERE ARE
POCKETS OF DRIER AIR NEAR THE KEWEENAW THAT WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
RISING OF THE CEILINGS TO VFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE WARM
MOIST AIR HAS BEEN INFLUENCING KIWD/KSAW THROUGH THE MORNING AND
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AT BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH KSAW OCCASIONALLY
GOING TO LIFR CEILINGS WITH THE FAVORABLE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
LEAD TO BRIEF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONDITIONS (DUE TO INCREASED
MIXING) BUT THE OVERALL IDEA SHOULD REMAIN.

THE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE LIFR CEILINGS AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL
DEPART FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING...THE WINDS TURNING TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST WILL FAVOR DRIZZLE
FOR KCMX/KIWD AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW. AT
KSAW...THE WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND EXPECT FOG TO BE THE MAIN VISIBILITY REDUCER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO THU AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY. STRONGEST
WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
OVER THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR. IF THE MSLP PATTERN REMAINS AS
FORECAST...ONLY WOULD BE A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SEEING GALES DURING
THIS TIME. IF THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST...EVEN JUST SLIGHLY...THE
CHANCE OF GALES WILL INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. NW WINDS STAY UP TO
25 KTS INTO SATURDAY THEN DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ARRIVAL OF
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BREAK IN STRONGER WINDS ONLY BRIEF THOUGH WITH
SE WINDS UP TO 30 KTS BY MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...JLA








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 400 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

DREARY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING UNTIL A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIDE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND WIDESPREAD FOG HAVE
PERSISTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MSLP HAS FALLEN 5-7 MB IN FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MN IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY SLOT SHOWING UP ON
SATELLITE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE BL WINDS AND HELPED MIX OUT SOME
OF THE DENSE FOG OBSERVED EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...THE FOG HAS ACTUALLY
THICKENED IN MANY LOCATIONS. THESE SAME AREAS WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT
ENE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z /NEAR CALM AT TIMES/. THIS WILL
KEEP THE LOW FOG AND STRATUS IN PLACE. BETWEEN 09-12Z...THE FLOW
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE W-NW AND ADVECT COOLER/BUT DRIER 925-850
MB AIR INTO MN. THIS SHOULD DO THE TRICK OF BRINGING AN END TO THE
PRECIP. LOCAL WRF SIMULATIONS AND THE PAST COUPLE HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. WE REDUCED POPS/QPF TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SOUTH-EAST TREND IN
THE 12-18Z GUIDANCE. FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
/SUCH AS ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE/ SHOULD BE RIGHT ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AND COULD STILL SEE 0.10-0.25" BETWEEN
03-09Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS MIGHT BE
DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
TWIN CITIES METRO COULD STILL PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW WILL BE COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LINGERING STRATO
CU...BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALMOST DUE WESTERLY AND THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
NONETHELESS...MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

NOTHING TOO SCARY WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN THE WAKE
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM REMAIN ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FA.
WOULD HAVE GONE TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST
CENTRAL WI... BASED ON THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER... THE
GEM AND ECMWF ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH A MUCH LIGHTER AND
PATCHY PRECIPITATION PATTERN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE TWO DAYS FOR SUNSHINE BUT IT BECOME
QUITE BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS THE FA... ESPECIALLY FROM WEST CENTRAL
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN... WHERE SW WINDS NEAR 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH
ARE LIKELY. THE WIND IS THE RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A PRETTY
GOOD RUN ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN
AS ALONG AS THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN DOES
NOT SLOW MUCH. PUSHED HIGHS UP INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE SW CWA BASED
ON H85 MIX DOWN FROM THE ECMWF.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER LARGE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE
ROCKIES BY MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM FEATURES BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY ALOFT. GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS ON HOW THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH OUR
AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO
PHASE THE TWO STREAMS OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ECMWF HAS KEPT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE
STREAMS. THE ECMWF HAS BECOME QUITE EXTREME TODAY CUTTING OFF AN
UPPER LOW NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO BY MID WEEK. OVERALL... A SLOWER
OUTCOME WILL LIKELY RESULT OVER WHAT THE GFS INDICATES AND PERHAPS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. HENCE... A RATHER WET PERIOD IS LIKELY NEXT
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SNOW IS MINIMAL AS LONG AS THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS KEEP THEIR DISTANCE LIKE THE ECMWF INDICATES.
MORE PHASING LIKE THE GFS WOULD PREFER COULD LEAD TO TROUBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST TAFS SITES
HAVE BEEN STEADY WITH 1-3 SM VIS AND 200-500 FT CEILINGS. WHILE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE AVIATION
IMPACTS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING ONCE THE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY
AND THE RAIN/DRIZZLE/FOG MOVES OUT.

KMSP...

WE HAVE KEPT THE AIRPORT ABOVE 1/2SM FOR THE SURFACE VIS AND
200FT FOR THE CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...BUT IT ALSO APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT MSP WILL SEE CONDITIONS BELOW 200 FT OR 1/2SM OR
LESS. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU NIGHT...MVFR...THEN VFR WITH CLEARING. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH CHC -SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KT.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 231 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

19Z surface analysis and visible satellite imagery depict a sharp
cold front extending from extreme NW MO to just west of Topeka to
just west of Wichita. This boundary has become nearly stationary
this afternoon, slowed by upstream pressure falls and increasing
southerly warm sector flow that has more than offset the anemic
post-frontal wind fields. The elevated mixed layer present in the
12Z KTOP sounding has been eliminating by a surge of mid-high level
subtropical moisture that overspread the area between 17-18Z per
water vapor imagery, and has resulted in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. This activity should continue to progress steadily
eastward over the next few hours, with the activity in the warm
sector diminishing and being maintained north of the warm front
across nrn MO.

Further west, satellite imagery has shown some thinning/partial clearing
along and ahead of the immediate frontal zone over eastern KS into
Kansas City. Enough insolation is expected to boost temperatures into
the lower 70s, coupled with dewpoints now in the mid 60s in the pre-
frontal moist axis. Although frontal convergence is presently weak
owing to light/calm winds on the cool side of the boundary, a short-
wave impulse over wrn KS is expected to lift across Kansas during
the late afternoon and early evening hours. Large scale ascent
associated with this feature should be sufficient for thunderstorms
to quickly develop along the frontal zone around 21-22Z. Increasing
destabilization in this region should yield SBCAPE upwards of 1500
J/kg co-located beneath an impressive mid-upper level wind field
(65-70 knots at 500mb and 120 knots at 250mb) that will shift toward
the KS/MO border by 00Z. The HRRR model, which has done extremely
well to this point, clearly shows the low level response to the upper
wave, with an increasing low level wind field this evening over ern
KS and far wrn MO, with low level SRH values increasing to between
200-300 m^2/s^s. Certainly the large scale environment would be
supportive of both supercells and smaller scale bowing segments
within a QLCS type of system. And although the warm front has become
rather diffuse from recent widespread convection, and convectively
induced boundary could also aid in the available boundary layer
vorticity. Bottom line is that we may see a period between roughly 22
and 02Z where the tornado potential becomes non-zero over the
southwest quadrant of the CWA.

In addition to the severe threat late this afternoon and early this
evening, moderate to heavy precipitation will likely train ahead of
the slow moving boundary through much of the overnight hours (and
into the day tomorrow). The deep subtropical moisture plume, with
direct connections to both the Gulf and the remnants of Hurricane
Raymond in the EPAC, have contributed to GPS measured precipitable
water column around 1.60" which is nearing the maximum values ever
recorded on this date. An intensifying low level jet this evening
and overnight will maximize rainfall efficiency by focusing moisture
transport and ascent along the frontal zone. Given that 1-2.5" of
rain has already fallen over the past 48 hours across portions of
the area, have gone ahead and issued a flash flood watch for areas
along and southeast of a St. Joseph to Trenton line, effective from
now through 18Z tomorrow.

Temperature wise, very warm and humid conditions will persist
through the warm sector overnight. Basically kept readings in the
mid 60s along and south of the MO river, with only a gradual drop
off through the 50s further north given the initial lack of cold
advection.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Rain is expected to continue through the majority of the daytime
hours of Thursday as models have trended deeper and more developed
with upper energy rotating around the base of the larger trough.
Despite the surface front sinking into the southeastern third of
Missouri Thursday morning, the track of the upper wave would support
a large deformation rain band to form and spread across the CWA
through the day. Rain should finally taper off late Thursday
afternoon, leaving damp and cool conditions for Halloween evening.

Friday-Sunday: A secondary upper trough will pass through the region
on Friday ushering in slightly cooler air for Saturday.  However,
mid-level ridging will quickly move eastward for the second half of
the weekend, and model guidance indicates a quick return of
southerly flow by Sunday morning.  Strong warm advection should push
temperatures back into the lower 60s.

Sunday night - Wednesday:  Stratus should stream northward Sunday
night, insulating the area from any extreme temperature drop.  With
the next upper trough diving into the Four Corners region Monday
night, rain chances will begin to increase substantially by Tuesday
through Wednesday and have bumped up PoPs both days.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Convection is becoming more widespread this afternoon across the
area. There may be a brief lull in activity after this first wave
moves through, but expect additional storms to quickly expand in
coverage after 21Z as a front pushes into northeast KS and northwest
MO. Right now frontal passage is timed into Kansas City around 06Z.

As far as flight conditions, there will be some occasional
improvement into MVFR this afternoon before the front and associated
thunderstorms move in this evening. After that prolonged IFR
conditions are expected into tomorrow morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday afternoon FOR KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday afternoon FOR MOZ007-008-
     013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bookbinder
LONG TERM...Dux
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1242 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Several forecast challenges exist over the next 30 hours, primarily
ongoing dense fog, precipitation amounts and timing, and the
potential for severe weather.

As of this morning, a surface warm front was slowly moving
northward, currently situated just north of I-70. To the north of
this boundary, areas of dense fog continue to persist with
visibilities a half mile or less and very low ceilings. To the south,
conditions steadily improve with southward extent with a seasonably
warm and humid air mass advecting into the area. The pattern and
short-term model guidance supports areas of dense fog along and north
of the boundary through 14Z. Will continue to carry dense fog
advisory and remove counties from south to north as conditions
improve largely tied to the warm frontal position.

Attention turns to large upper trough beginning to emerge into the
Plains states. At the surface, a cold front currently located from
Omaha to Wichita will remain nearly stationary throughout the day in
response to pressure falls to the west. The forecast area will find
itself within the warm sector, with dew points steadily increasing
into the lower to middle 60s. As the nose of a 100kt upper jet
approaches the region, widespread convection is expected to develop
along the boundary and warm sector as strong large scale ascent
occurs. Convective-resolving models support synoptic scenario with
convection initially developing over eastern Kansas by mid morning
and spreading northeastward/additional development over the forecast
area. Extensive cloud cover should preclude strong boundary layer
destabilization. However, model guidance has been progressively
higher with regards to elevated instability in advance of said
mid-morning convection. Current RAP MU CAPE analysis has 500-1000
J/kg over much of the CWA. Expect similar or slightly higher MU CAPE
values to proceed initial convection. With 1-6km bulk shear values of
50kts expected, ample support for organized storms will exist. The
biggest question is whether sufficient instability will remain
available for initial activity. The highest probability for robust
convection will be across the west/southwest quarter of the CWA,
generally KC Metro and south/west, where an initial round of strong
to severe weather may be possible between 8am to 1pm. The primary
threat would be hail to quarter-size and possibility any wind gust
that can reach the surface through the near-surface stable layer.

As the upper trough begins to move further into the Plains this
afternoon and evening, the surface cold front will begin to shift
eastward into far northwestern Missouri during the late afternoon
hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected as this
occurs with large scale ascent still in place and surface forcing
increases. While wind shear will be supportive of organized
convection, degree of instability is much more in question. At this
time, do not expect much severe weather unless better atmospheric
recovery can take place following earlier anticipated convection.
The highest probability for a few stronger storms should be tied to
near the boundary over the far western CWA, with a decreasing
probability with eastward extent. Regardless, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much of the area from the evening
into Thursday morning. Will continue post-frontal precipitation
chances into Thursday afternoon as the base of the trough passes
through the forecast area, prior to upper downglide. With modest
lapse rates, could still see some embedded thunder in this activity
as well.

As for additional precipitation totals now through Thursday
afternoon, another 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. As
mentioned above, a very moist air mass remains in place for this time
of year. Precipitable water values between 1.25-1.5 inches is
roughly two standard deviations above PW climatology, suggesting
robust convection will be efficient rainfall producers. With the
relatively quick storm speed and flash flood rainfall guidance, the
overall threat from flash flooding should be low outside of urban
centers. Will monitor river levels and subsequent response as the
event progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to ridging across the
central CONUS this weekend, allowing for near to slightly above
normal temperatures by Sunday and dry, quiet conditions across the
region through early next week. The primary focus in the long range
forecast period will be a deepening trough over the western U.S.
early next week, which could move into the region by Tuesday.
Precipitation with this system should again spread over a fairly
long period of time with a surface boundary stretching up into the
region on Monday, warm-sector precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and frontal precipitation possibly stretching into
early Wednesday. Currently, the most likely time frame for rainfall
will be on Tuesday night, but changes in timing are likely as the
system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Convection is becoming more widespread this afternoon across the
area. There may be a brief lull in activity after this first wave
moves through, but expect additional storms to quickly expand in
coverage after 21Z as a front pushes into northeast KS and northwest
MO. Right now frontal passage is timed into Kansas City around 06Z.

As far as flight conditions, there will be some occasional
improvement into MVFR this afternoon before the front and associated
thunderstorms move in this evening. After that prolonged IFR
conditions are expected into tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO

 1138 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1120 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Radar trends over the past few hours have indicated increasing
coverage of thunderstorm activity across eastern Kansas and Western
Missouri. This is occurring along the leading edge of a 30 to 40 knot
low level jet, which is currently nosing into northern Missouri.
Objective analysis from 12z RAOBS indicates a very moist low level
air mass, characterized by 12 to 15 C dew points at 850 mb. This
moist air mass, along with decent surface heating should act keep the
low to mid levels of the atmosphere unstable. At the surface a fairly
potent warm front was objectively analyzed running wet to east just
north of Interstate 70. This warm should continue to gradually slide
north through the day, perhaps reaching Highway 36. The most
impressive storm on radar just departed the KSTJ area, and is
continuing to the east around 40 mph. This storm is located north of
the warm front, and is likely caused by the aforementioned low level
jet lifting the moist parcels above the LFC. With the storm currently
located north of the warm front, the tornado threat is low, and the
wind threat is marginal. However, should the storm continue east, or
perhaps slightly south of east it could become surface based. 0-1 SRH
is currently around 150 J/kg in the vicinity of the warm front, so if
the storm does interact with the warm frontal boundary, or somehow
slide south of the boundary, the tornado and wind threat could
increase.

Given the general orientation of the warm front from
northwest to southeast the eastward progression of the storm should
keep it north of the boundary. With the storm being firmly on the
cool air side of the boundary the main threat is hail, ranging from
quarter to golf ball sized. With the storm existing in a marginally
unstable atmosphere, characterized by 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MU CAPE
updraft strength will be fairly marginal. However, with 40 to 50
knots of deep layer and effective shear the updraft portion of the
storm could be enhanced by the better deep layer shear. The most
recent reports from the warned storm in NW Missouri have been
quarters, but given radar trends with mid level Vr ranging from 30 to
40 knots a few golf ball sized hail reports cannot be ruled out.

Showery activity is expected to increase in coverage this afternoon
as the deeper moisture continues to stream in within the strong low
level jet. The severe weather threat will remain marginal throughout
the day, but widespread moderate to heavy rain this afternoon and
this evening should occur, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
through the evening to overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Several forecast challenges exist over the next 30 hours, primarily
ongoing dense fog, precipitation amounts and timing, and the
potential for severe weather.

As of this morning, a surface warm front was slowly moving
northward, currently situated just north of I-70. To the north of
this boundary, areas of dense fog continue to persist with
visibilities a half mile or less and very low ceilings. To the south,
conditions steadily improve with southward extent with a seasonably
warm and humid air mass advecting into the area. The pattern and
short-term model guidance supports areas of dense fog along and north
of the boundary through 14Z. Will continue to carry dense fog
advisory and remove counties from south to north as conditions
improve largely tied to the warm frontal position.

Attention turns to large upper trough beginning to emerge into the
Plains states. At the surface, a cold front currently located from
Omaha to Wichita will remain nearly stationary throughout the day in
response to pressure falls to the west. The forecast area will find
itself within the warm sector, with dew points steadily increasing
into the lower to middle 60s. As the nose of a 100kt upper jet
approaches the region, widespread convection is expected to develop
along the boundary and warm sector as strong large scale ascent
occurs. Convective-resolving models support synoptic scenario with
convection initially developing over eastern Kansas by mid morning
and spreading northeastward/additional development over the forecast
area. Extensive cloud cover should preclude strong boundary layer
destabilization. However, model guidance has been progressively
higher with regards to elevated instability in advance of said
mid-morning convection. Current RAP MU CAPE analysis has 500-1000
J/kg over much of the CWA. Expect similar or slightly higher MU CAPE
values to proceed initial convection. With 1-6km bulk shear values of
50kts expected, ample support for organized storms will exist. The
biggest question is whether sufficient instability will remain
available for initial activity. The highest probability for robust
convection will be across the west/southwest quarter of the CWA,
generally KC Metro and south/west, where an initial round of strong
to severe weather may be possible between 8am to 1pm. The primary
threat would be hail to quarter-size and possibility any wind gust
that can reach the surface through the near-surface stable layer.

As the upper trough begins to move further into the Plains this
afternoon and evening, the surface cold front will begin to shift
eastward into far northwestern Missouri during the late afternoon
hours. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected as this
occurs with large scale ascent still in place and surface forcing
increases. While wind shear will be supportive of organized
convection, degree of instability is much more in question. At this
time, do not expect much severe weather unless better atmospheric
recovery can take place following earlier anticipated convection.
The highest probability for a few stronger storms should be tied to
near the boundary over the far western CWA, with a decreasing
probability with eastward extent. Regardless, widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected over much of the area from the evening
into Thursday morning. Will continue post-frontal precipitation
chances into Thursday afternoon as the base of the trough passes
through the forecast area, prior to upper downglide. With modest
lapse rates, could still see some embedded thunder in this activity
as well.

As for additional precipitation totals now through Thursday
afternoon, another 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible. As
mentioned above, a very moist air mass remains in place for this time
of year. Precipitable water values between 1.25-1.5 inches is
roughly two standard deviations above PW climatology, suggesting
robust convection will be efficient rainfall producers. With the
relatively quick storm speed and flash flood rainfall guidance, the
overall threat from flash flooding should be low outside of urban
centers. Will monitor river levels and subsequent response as the
event progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to ridging across the
central CONUS this weekend, allowing for near to slightly above
normal temperatures by Sunday and dry, quiet conditions across the
region through early next week. The primary focus in the long range
forecast period will be a deepening trough over the western U.S.
early next week, which could move into the region by Tuesday.
Precipitation with this system should again spread over a fairly
long period of time with a surface boundary stretching up into the
region on Monday, warm-sector precipitation on Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and frontal precipitation possibly stretching into
early Wednesday. Currently, the most likely time frame for rainfall
will be on Tuesday night, but changes in timing are likely as the
system draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)

UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

Storms are currently bypassing the KC area to the north
and south, and currently do not expect areas in between to fill in
until at least early this afternoon, possibly later. Therefore sent
an amendment keeping thunder out of the MCI terminals until 18Z at
the earliest. Best chances for widespread thunder around KC look to
be a few hours either side of 00Z. Meanwhile strong storm heading for
STJ may be capable of strong winds.

Previous Discussion...
Issued at 627 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

IFR stratus and light fog will continue across much of the region
this morning, except in far northern and northeast portions of the
region where dense fog and LIFR ceilings may continue for another
2-3 hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will
become widespread this afternoon through tonight, impacting much of
the region especially after 18z. Ceilings are likely to remain IFR
or very low-end MVFR through the remainder of the forecast period,
even as precipitation begins to clear out from northwest to southeast
Thursday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Leighton
SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Hawblitzel







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

 1247 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION /SAVE KVTN WHERE
THE CURRENT TEMP IS 0C/ HAVE RISEN ABOVE 0C AND PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY HAVING DIFFICULTLY OVERCOMING DRY LAYERS IN THE LOWER
AND MID LEVELS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO OTHER
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

A 700MB WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND WRN NEB THIS MORNING TRIGGERING
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS QUITE
STRONG...NEAR 50 KT FROM 850MB TO 700MB ON THE KGLD RADAR AND
AROUND 40 KT ON THE KFTG RADAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING 850MB TO 700MB AS INDICATED BY THE RAP MODEL. SFC
OBS ACROSS WRN NEB SUGGEST JUST SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES COULD
GET FREEZING RAIN WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH UNDERGO WEAK SCOURING.

THIS ELEVATED WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
FARTHER EAST THIS MORNING...FROM KIML NORTHEAST THROUGH KVTN AND THE
NAM TSTM PROBABILITY SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. NOTE THE KGLD VWP IS FILLING UP WITH RETURNS
SUGGESTING MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE. THE MODELS CAPTURE THIS BUT
SHOW QUITE A SPREAD IN RAIN COVERAGE. SINCE THE RADAR REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT IS FILLING UP ACROSS WRN THIS MORNING CONFIDENCE IS GOOD
THAT SOME RAIN WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.
FARTHER EAST...ECHOS HAVE YET TO DEVELOP. THE SREF IS VERY GENEROUS
WITH THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE THE RAP IS QUITE DRY SHOWING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF QPF. A FULL MULTIMODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS AND QPF
BUT STILL PRODUCES 1/10 OR AN INCH OR LESS RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE
FCST AREA. EITHER WAY THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE FCST
AREA THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT FEATURE IS THE HEAVILY ADVERTISED "CLEARING" FORECAST BY
ALL MODELS ACROSS WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SFC
FORCING TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND TRAPPED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FROM THE FRONT RANGE EAST THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE WPC KEEPS A
STATIONARY FRONT PINNED AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND LIFTS THAT FRONT EAST OF THE FCST AREA THURSDAY MORNING ONCE THE
SFC LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THE FCST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEEPS SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RAP MODEL. FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS NO
CHOICE BUT TO BLEND A MULTIMODEL SOLN FOR CLEARING SKIES WITH ONE
CAVEAT. THE NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FOG
BANK SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FOG
SHOULD SPREAD TO NEAR NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 2 BUT NO FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN
THE PROPENSITY FOR THE NAM TO USE FORECAST SNOWFALL TO GENERATE
SPURIOUS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THE CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
IS LOW. FOR NOW WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. THE FCST HIGHS TODAY ARE COOLER THAN THE GUIDANCE WHILE
TONIGHTS LOWS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER TO ACCOMMODATE COLD AIR DAMMING
AND TRAPPED MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST TO FINALLY BE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. BY 00Z
FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD THE REGION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOOKING TO MOVE OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO MONTANA THURSDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE WILL BE PLACED OVER THE WEST
COAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WEAKENING...WHILE ONLY MOVING MINIMALLY.

THURSDAY HAS A DECENT SET-UP FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS NEBRASKA...WHILE ALSO
CONCURRENTLY EXPECTING GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE
SFC TO 500MB LAYER. PRESSURE GRADIENT ISN/T REAL TIGHT SO SHOULD BE MORE
OF A SITUATION WITH WINDS MIXING DOWN RATHER THAN STRONG GRADIENT
WINDS. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE MIXED
LAYER WHICH TOPS OUT AROUND 800MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ARES. MAX WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER ARE 30-35KT SO EXPECT GUSTS FROM TIME TO TIME UP TO 35 MPH.
ALTHOUGH GOOD SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...WILL STILL HAVE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE COLDER AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN
THE 0C TO 5C RANGE.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THAN ON THURSDAY...AND
WHILE THERE ISN/T AS STRONG OF A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA...SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BELOW 500MB
REMAINS STRONG AND WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE A BIT STRONGER AS
850MB WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE 30KTS TO 40KTS. SO AGAIN EXPECTING A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...AGAIN LOOKING FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING SOME PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH LIFT AND MOISTURE LACKING...FELT KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY WAS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME.

RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST FAR
ENOUGH TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MAIN FLOW. CURRENT TIMING FROM
MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL KEEP THE GOOD WARM AIR FROM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUNDAY
TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK...PLENTIFUL MODEL DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY. THE
GFS IS MUCH FASTER PUSHING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS...WHILE THE
ECMWF AND GEM ARE QUITE A BIT SLOWER. USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH
FOR THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS...HOWEVER RELYING A BIT HEAVIER
ON THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS BEING SAID...THERE
ISN/T A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WILL
ALSO HAVE MADE IT TO ON-LAND...THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS SPLIT...WHICH
WILL KEEP A MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES.

ALSO...WITH EITHER MODEL SOLUTION TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ON BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...IF PRECIPITATION IS INDEED ONGOING MAY ONLY SEE
HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S IN PLACES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THE COLDER AIR BEING INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM...BELIEVE
ANYTHING WILL START AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...THEN TO SNOW...BUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

WARMING AND DRYING CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR IMPROVING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLEARING LINE IS JUST
WEST OF KOGA AND KIML AT THIS HOUR /18Z/...WITH NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATING AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AT KVTN AND KLBF AOA 20Z.
OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT MAY GIVE WAY TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT KVTN EARLY THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AS THE FORECAST MODELS MAY BE OVER SATURATING THE LOWER
LEVELS...THUS WILL LOWER CEILINGS AT KVTN TO IFR...BUT NOT ANY
LOWER AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL BECOME GUSTY...WITH 20KTS OR GREATER POSSIBLE BY 18Z
THURSDAY FOR ALL WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FLIGHT
TERMINALS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...BROOKS
AVIATION...JACOBS








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 1232 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

ALOFT: THE FLOW REMAINS SW BETWEEN THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W AND A RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF OVER CO MOVING NE. THE
LOW WILL OPEN UP AND BECOME MOBILE TODAY-TONIGHT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE E PACIFIC. THE REMNANTS WILL MOVE THRU HERE AS
A POSITIVE TILT TROF THU. IN THE MEANTIME...THE TAIL OF THE
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE THRU THIS MORNING.

SURFACE: A WEAK BUT WELL-DEFINED 1013 MB LOW WAS OVER THE SE
CORNER OF NEB AND MOVING AWAY. THE STALLED FRONT HAS PIVOTED
CYCLONICALLY AS THIS LOW MOVED BY AND IN ITS WAKE THE FRONT IS
NOW DOWN TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. A NEW LEE-SIDE LOW WAS NEAR
PUEBLO. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE PUEBLO AREA...BUT
LIKELY SHED MULTIPLE WEAK LOWS UP THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY...BUT THEN SINK SE TONIGHT AS ONE OF
THESE LOWS DEEPENS OVER IA AND HEADS FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

EARLY THIS MORNING: THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND
STRENGTHENED TO 35 KTS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROF.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z DODGE CITY SOUNDING WAS VERY WARM AND DRY /+18
AT 850 MB WITH A 37C DEWPOINT DEPRESSION/. THE N PLATTE SOUNDING
HAD A PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE AT 700 MB. THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SHWRS/TSTMS OVERNIGHT.
NOTHING DEVELOPED UNTIL 08Z OVER NE KS. WE ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO SEE INCREASING RETURNS OVER SW NEBRASKA...BUT THEY APPEAR
STRONGLY FORCED IN AN AREA OF STABILITY.

THE 07Z HI-RES RAP SUGGESTS THIS AREA COULD EXPAND A LITTLE AND
THAT COULD BE IT AS IT RACES NE OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 13Z. ALL
THAT WOULD BE LEFT IS A FEW SHWRS FOR N-CNTRL KS AND POSSIBLY SOME
REDEVELOPMENT FROM HEBRON-BELOIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LEAVES
MOST OF THE DAY CLOUDY AND QUITE WITH PATCHY FOG.

TODAY: CLOUDY AND CHILLY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FCST TO INCREASE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE JUST A CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF SHWR OR TWO...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH TEMPS WERE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD CURRENT TEMPS BLENDED
WITH THE 18Z AND 00Z NAM 2M TEMPS TO NUDGE TEMPS UP JUST A LITTLE
FROM CURRENT VALUES.

MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN DECREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A TOUGH PROPOSITION WHEN THERE ARE NO CLEAR
SKIES ANYWHERE AROUND...BUT BASED ON THE PASSAGE OF THE 850 MB
TROF/FRONT...DECREASING CLOUDS SEEMS REASONABLE TONIGHT.

THUNDER: BASED ON SREF MUCAPE OF 500-900 J/KG...A MENTION OF SMALL
HAIL HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO. PART OF MITCHELL COUNTY KS IS
OUTLOOKED FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF 1" HAIL.

TONIGHT: WENT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BUT THE UPPER TROF WILL
STILL BE TO THE W. SO AM NOT EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR COMPLETELY.
AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. IT APPEARS
MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WHISKED AWAY BY NW
WINDS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM. FOR NOW AM
EXPECTING NOT MUCH MORE THAN GROUND FOG WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR
VISIBILITIES /3-5 MI/. LOW TEMPS WERE BASED ON BIAS CORRECTED GFS
MOS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...AND SREF-MEAN ALL
SUGGEST A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT
12Z THURSDAY...AND THIS TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING EAST AND SUBSIDENCE SETTLING IN...CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AN
OVERALL LACK IN KINEMATIC FORCING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...GUIDANCE FROM THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SUGGEST MID LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING POPS TO
THE AREA AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR THE MOST PART.
THE EC SUGGESTS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE COULD BECOME COOL ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...AND
SUCH AS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WILL B E OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY...WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE CEILING HEIGHTS
IMPROVEMENT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIFR/IFR
CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA...WITH STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS MOVING IN BY MID/LATE MORNING TOMORROW ONCE THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADO







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

 309 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS VARIOUS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND THE SECOND IS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY AFFECT ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS AFTER MERGING SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CONVECTION.

SHOWERS AND STORMS IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BECOME ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT DATA INDICATE THAT THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL IN THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAY SLIDE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS SHIFT IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE HRRR CONTINUING TO NAIL SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
NEVERTHELESS...AS THIS AREA OF STORMS BEGINS TO SET UP...IT IS
LIKELY TO STEAL SOME MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM
CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH.

FURTHER NORTHWEST...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRONG TO...AT
TIMES...SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE AREA...BUT
STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF TULSA.

BAND OF PERSISTENT RAIN THAT DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY JUST SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR PRODUCED A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF OKFUSKEE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NORTHERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH
AMOUNTS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM THE FRONTAL PRECIP
OVERNIGHT...THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WARRANT EXPANDING THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD.

STORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS ESPECIALLY
FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS APPEARING LIKELY AT THIS POINT. CURRENTLY...IT
LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOWER THAN
BEHIND THE CURRENT ONE. ONE ITEM OF NOTE...THE CURRENT RUN OF THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST...AS IT IS A HUGE
CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND ALSO FROM THE GFS...ALL OF WHICH
POINT TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM AS OPPOSED TO A CLOSED LOW
SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  69  47  70 /  90  60   0   0
FSM   67  74  47  72 / 100  80   0   0
MLC   68  72  47  74 /  80  50   0   0
BVO   62  66  42  69 /  90  50   0   0
FYV   65  70  42  68 / 100  80   0   0
BYV   65  71  45  67 / 100  80   0   0
MKO   66  72  45  71 /  90  60   0   0
MIO   64  68  44  67 /  90  70   0   0
F10   66  70  47  72 /  80  50   0   0
HHW   69  76  47  75 /  90  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....22






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

 1155 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
REGION WITH A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT PUNCHING UP TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTH. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT THERE ARE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE DURING THE TIME WHEN CLOUDS/MOISTURE/LIFT ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE CWA PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE DRY
SLOT. ONCE THE DRY SLOT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE CWA
TODAY...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASICALLY SHUT OFF AND
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG PRETTY MUCH REMAIN THE ONLY
VIABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TYPES FOR THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE
BACK-PEDDLED EVEN FURTHER FROM WHAT THE MID-SHIFT DID TO CONTINUE
THIS TREND OF DECREASING CHANCES FOR SEEING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE 00Z ABRWRF4KM SOLUTION AND
THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR MODEL LEND SUPPORT TO THIS
DECREASING TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES.

THERE ARE SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CWA THAT HAVE BEGUN SLOWLY WARMING
TO ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...A FEW SPOTS SEEM RESISTANT TO A
WARMING TREND...FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT DAY. THAT BEING SAID...THERE
IS STILL AN EXPECTATION THAT NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION
SHOULD BE SWITCHING OVER TO A RATHER WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN...ESPECIALLY AS MIXING LAYER WINDS SLOWLY BEGIN
TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL REFRAIN FROM
ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION PHENOMENA
UNLESS WE BEGIN RECEIVING REPORTS OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

UNTIL THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE CWA CAN EXPECT CONTINUED
CLOUDY/FOGGY/DRIZZLY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN OCCASIONAL PASSING
SHOWER OF LIGHT RAIN. BETWEEN NOW AND 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...ANY
AREAS WHERE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
MENTIONED/OCCURRING SHOULD BE EITHER SWITCHED OVER TO JUST A RAIN
OR DRIZZLE MENTION OR SHOULD BE COMPLETELY DONE...WITH A DRYING
TREND DEVELOPING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY LOCKED UNDER AN EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD
SHIELD...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WITH
VERY LITTLE ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL RADAR...HAVE REDUCED POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL MENTION DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HI-RES MODELS...ALONG WITH THE 0Z ECMWF SHOWS
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PCPN TODAY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER RIVER. HAVE TRIED TO BACK OFF ON POPS SOME...WHILE
MAINTAINING CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE EASTERN CWA
STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST LOCATION FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
TODAY. P-TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW PCPN ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY 6Z. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST AFTER 6Z TONIGHT. THIS DRIER WILL ALSO HELP
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DECENT LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED POPS TO A HIGH CHANCE.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AN ALL LIQUID EVENT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

OVERALL THE LONG TERM SHOULD FEATURE A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...EARLY NEXT WEEK A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
TROF WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR AT LEAST A CHC OF PCPN AT THAT TIME. THAT SAID MANY
MODEL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PROGS SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR PCPN WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CWA WHERE SFC/ALOFT FEATURES
WILL TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE. MODEL POP BLEND SETTLED OUT TO CHC
CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY AND THAT IS ACCEPTABLE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD AVERAGE OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE SFC
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE MORNING SUCH THAT THE
THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING PCPN SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL. CIGS AND VSBYS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT MVFR MAY
PREDOMINATE BY MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 401 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT 18 HOURS WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL PICK UP
SOME RAINFALL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE
NARROWING DOWN THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT COULD
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR UNDERESTIMATING THE SEVERE THREAT.

CONCERNING THE SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS IS
IMPORTANT BECAUSE TEMPERATURES IN HENDERSON AND ANDERSON COUNTIES
ARE IN THE MID 60S WHILE TEMPERATURE ACROSS BELL AND MILAM
COUNTIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. THIS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
WILL EFFECTIVELY ACT AS A WARM FRONT WITH STRONGLY BACKED WINDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LOCALLY RUN SEVERE PARAMETERS INDICATE
AROUND 2000J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH LITTLE INHIBITION. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...LOW LEVEL TURNING OF THE WINDS IS QUITE STRONG AND
THERE IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL CAPE. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS...LCLS ARE LOW AND THIS AREA WOULD NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR A LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.

ELSEWHERE...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS GIVEN AMPLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 50KTS. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY STEEP BUT A MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL THREAT WOULD EXIST. THERE IS A LAYER OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR
OVER NORTH TEXAS WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS LOCALLY SUPPORTING
A LOW END DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS APPEARS TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL DRY
AIR MENTIONED ABOVE HAS BEEN A THORN IN OUR SIDE IN TRYING TO
DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AT LEAST WEAK SUBSIDENCE INCREASING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM DFW AND DAL SHOW THIS LAYER OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT
700MB TO 550MB. MORE IMPORTANTLY...LATEST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THIS DRY AIR IS SINKING...IMPLYING DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS.
LATEST FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME DRIER AIR
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...OR MORE
SPECIFIC...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM NEAR
GOLDTHWAITE TO HILLSBORO TO SHERMAN. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A
TIGHT THETA-E BOUNDARY ALONG THESE AREAS. AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW
EJECTS EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER DARK...MAINLY FROM 9PM TO 2AM. THE
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT
BECAUSE MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH A 50KT LLJ PUMPING RICH MOISTURE INTO THIS
SYSTEM...EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH HIGHLIGHTS THE AREAS WHERE WE THINK THE
BEST CHANCE FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. OF COURSE...IF THIS
IS OFF ANY BIT...CONSIDERABLY HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD FALL FARTHER
WEST. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MUCH
HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FALL WEST...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER
AT THIS TIME AND DOESNT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE DRY AIR AS WELL.

THAT BEING SAID...CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIGURATION WILL
REMAIN THE SAME...BUT IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR WEST...WE WILL EXPAND IT THIS EVENING. WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR LATE
OCTOBER...AND SURFACE TO 700MB THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF ONLY ABOUT 5
DEG K...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD
AVERAGE 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE DAY AND TRICK OR TREATING WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE NICE. THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN  WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  79  53  77  50 /  80  20   5   0   0
WACO, TX              70  79  47  77  47 / 100  20   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             68  78  50  74  46 / 100  20   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            67  75  50  74  43 /  80  10   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          69  76  50  76  46 / 100  20   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            72  79  54  78  52 /  90  20   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           71  78  50  76  47 / 100  20   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         70  80  52  75  50 / 100  30   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            71  79  48  78  49 / 100  30   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  75  44  76  45 /  60  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR TXZ095-105>107-
120>123-135-146>148-158-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1253 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Please see aviation below for my discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
Well, as I expected this time yesterday, flight weather conditions
across West Central Texas remain challenging. I believe VFR
conditions will return this afternoon. However, return to VFR
conditions will be slow and spotty for the next hour or so. The best
locations for Thunderstorms will be across our eastern counties this
afternoon and evening, where instability will be better.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

UPDATE...

The latest WSR-88D data indicate showers are continuing to develop
across West Central Texas. However, I`m not seeing the thunderstorms
we were expecting. I believe the atmosphere over West Central Texas
is still too stable to initiate any deep convection. Plus, the low
clouds are continuing, and that`s not helping increase the low-level
instability. Anyway, I just completed an update of my Weather, POP,
QPF, and Sky grids; I lowered POPs to no higher than 40 for the
remainder of today, and I decided on weather grids of chance for
rain showers and slight chance for thunderstorms, also for the
remainder of today across all of West Central Texas. In addition 100
percent sky cover looked best for the remainder of today.

Huber

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
See the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
This is certainly not an easy TAF package. Uncertainty exists
regarding both ceiling heights and convective development.
Basically, we are looking at widespread MVFR ceilings this morning
with possible TEMPO IFR conditions. Elevated radar echoes continue
to increase as upper-level ascent improves over the area and we`ll
see showers and a few thunderstorms develop later this morning into
the afternoon hours. The greatest thunderstorm chances will occur
south and east of KSJT late this afternoon and this evening. Thus,
no mention of thunder was included at KSJT or KABI. However, I did
include vicinity remarks at the remaining terminals after peak
heating.

Winds will be from the south today at 14-18 kts for the most part
but may gust over 25 kts at times. I expect wind speeds to relax
around 00z before veering to the west late tonight as a Pacific cold
front moves across West Central Texas. This will bring drier air
into the area, ending precipitation from west to east after
midnight. I have low confidence in the potential for low ceilings
developing again tonight. Widespread convection over the southeast
terminals may lift cloud bases into VFR category or they could lower
significantly if precip is light. I opted to go with a prevailing
ceiling around 2000 ft at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA tonight with
prevailing VFR conditions at KSJT and KABI.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The deep cyclone over the Great Basin has begun to move east over
the past 12 hours and will continue to do so through tonight. Strong
southwesterly flow downstream of the base of the trough continues to
advect abundant mid/upper-level moisture into the Southern Plains
per the latest water vapor loop. An upper-level jet exceeding 100
kts was analyzed in the 00z RAOB data from southern NM into eastern
CO and the latest RAP analysis suggests that its speed has increased
to near 130 kts. We have already seen scattered showers (and a few
thunderstorms) this evening but low-level forcing remains meager as
of now. However, this H25 jet streak will propagate to the east
during the day. This should place West TX within a favored area for
mesoscale ascent; the right entrance region.

I think precipitation coverage will be limited this morning but
should begin to increase as mesoscale lift is augmented by synoptic
scale ascent associated with the upper trough. When and where
precipitation develops today remains uncertain given the lack of
focused low-level convergence but the greatest rain chances are
expected to be over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country (as
usual!). Instability and effective shear values will likely be
sufficient for organized convection. However, with precip becoming
more widespread, I think the ability to realize the full scope of
the instability will be limited. We may see a few elevated "hailers"
today but I think the general trend will be showers and garden
variety thunderstorms. However, I will mention the potential for
severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphicasts.

A Pacific cold front will traverse the CWA tonight, bringing much
drier air from the west and effectively ending rain chances from
west to east after midnight. This front will provide the strongest
surface forcing but it will be brief and transient. Some of this
activity may linger into Thursday morning but the bulk will be to
our east by then. I lowered precipitation amounts a bit given the
lack of focus, but precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches
suggest that there remains some potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Eastern areas may see around 1 inch on average but most of
the area will likely see less than 1/2 inch.

Johnson

LONG TERM...

/Thursday through Sunday/
Looks like a quiet period across West Central Texas. The upper level
trough will be east of the area, taking the convection with it. The
upper level pattern will bring a low amplitude ridge over the
Southern Plains by this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in
behind a secondary cool front. Also, northwest winds will pick up
behind the current cool front on Thursday with some gusts near 25
mph. However, the airmass behind the front is Pacific so
temperatures will only be slightly cooler for Thursday and Friday.
Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be mainly in the
40s. It will be slightly cooler for Saturday and Sunday with highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
Pattern begins to shift back to upper level cyclonic flow across the
Southern Plains early next week, with a broad trough located across
the western U.S. This system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to our area. The ECMWF model is more amplified with
the trough than the GFS model. Will go with more progressive GFS
solution for now. Also, there may be a tropical connection from the
Eastern Pacific. Low level moisture will struggle to return early on
due to surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. However,
modified moisture will return by Monday and Tuesday on southerly
flow with dewpoints in the 50s to possibly lower 60s. Will go with
slight chance to chance POPS for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain mild with highs in the 70s. The rain will end by late
Tuesday night and a dry forecast is in store for Wednesday.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  75  49  75 /  50  50   5   0   0
San Angelo  78  59  78  42  79 /  50  50   5   0   0
Junction  80  64  81  38  80 /  70  70  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/21/Johnson/Huber





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...

The latest WSR-88D data indicate showers are continuing to develop
across West Central Texas. However, I`m not seeing the thunderstorms
we were expecting. I believe the atmosphere over West Central Texas
is still too stable to initiate any deep convection. Plus, the low
clouds are continuing, and that`s not helping increase the low-level
instability. Anyway, I just completed an update of my Weather, POP,
QPF, and Sky grids; I lowered POPs to no higher than 40 for the
remainder of today, and I decided on weather grids of chance for
rain showers and slight chance for thunderstorms, also for the
remainder of today across all of West Central Texas. In addition 100
percent sky cover looked best for the remainder of today.

Huber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

DISCUSSION...
See the 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
This is certainly not an easy TAF package. Uncertainty exists
regarding both ceiling heights and convective development.
Basically, we are looking at widespread MVFR ceilings this morning
with possible TEMPO IFR conditions. Elevated radar echoes continue
to increase as upper-level ascent improves over the area and we`ll
see showers and a few thunderstorms develop later this morning into
the afternoon hours. The greatest thunderstorm chances will occur
south and east of KSJT late this afternoon and this evening. Thus,
no mention of thunder was included at KSJT or KABI. However, I did
include vicinity remarks at the remaining terminals after peak
heating.

Winds will be from the south today at 14-18 kts for the most part
but may gust over 25 kts at times. I expect wind speeds to relax
around 00z before veering to the west late tonight as a Pacific cold
front moves across West Central Texas. This will bring drier air
into the area, ending precipitation from west to east after
midnight. I have low confidence in the potential for low ceilings
developing again tonight. Widespread convection over the southeast
terminals may lift cloud bases into VFR category or they could lower
significantly if precip is light. I opted to go with a prevailing
ceiling around 2000 ft at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA tonight with
prevailing VFR conditions at KSJT and KABI.

Johnson

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013/

SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The deep cyclone over the Great Basin has begun to move east over
the past 12 hours and will continue to do so through tonight. Strong
southwesterly flow downstream of the base of the trough continues to
advect abundant mid/upper-level moisture into the Southern Plains
per the latest water vapor loop. An upper-level jet exceeding 100
kts was analyzed in the 00z RAOB data from southern NM into eastern
CO and the latest RAP analysis suggests that its speed has increased
to near 130 kts. We have already seen scattered showers (and a few
thunderstorms) this evening but low-level forcing remains meager as
of now. However, this H25 jet streak will propagate to the east
during the day. This should place West TX within a favored area for
mesoscale ascent; the right entrance region.

I think precipitation coverage will be limited this morning but
should begin to increase as mesoscale lift is augmented by synoptic
scale ascent associated with the upper trough. When and where
precipitation develops today remains uncertain given the lack of
focused low-level convergence but the greatest rain chances are
expected to be over the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country (as
usual!). Instability and effective shear values will likely be
sufficient for organized convection. However, with precip becoming
more widespread, I think the ability to realize the full scope of
the instability will be limited. We may see a few elevated "hailers"
today but I think the general trend will be showers and garden
variety thunderstorms. However, I will mention the potential for
severe weather in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and graphicasts.

A Pacific cold front will traverse the CWA tonight, bringing much
drier air from the west and effectively ending rain chances from
west to east after midnight. This front will provide the strongest
surface forcing but it will be brief and transient. Some of this
activity may linger into Thursday morning but the bulk will be to
our east by then. I lowered precipitation amounts a bit given the
lack of focus, but precipitable water values of 1.4 to 1.7 inches
suggest that there remains some potential for locally heavy
rainfall. Eastern areas may see around 1 inch on average but most of
the area will likely see less than 1/2 inch.

Johnson

LONG TERM...

/Thursday through Sunday/
Looks like a quiet period across West Central Texas. The upper level
trough will be east of the area, taking the convection with it. The
upper level pattern will bring a low amplitude ridge over the
Southern Plains by this weekend. Surface high pressure will build in
behind a secondary cool front. Also, northwest winds will pick up
behind the current cool front on Thursday with some gusts near 25
mph. However, the airmass behind the front is Pacific so
temperatures will only be slightly cooler for Thursday and Friday.
Highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Lows will be mainly in the
40s. It will be slightly cooler for Saturday and Sunday with highs
in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.

/Sunday Night through Tuesday/
Pattern begins to shift back to upper level cyclonic flow across the
Southern Plains early next week, with a broad trough located across
the western U.S. This system will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to our area. The ECMWF model is more amplified with
the trough than the GFS model. Will go with more progressive GFS
solution for now. Also, there may be a tropical connection from the
Eastern Pacific. Low level moisture will struggle to return early on
due to surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. However,
modified moisture will return by Monday and Tuesday on southerly
flow with dewpoints in the 50s to possibly lower 60s. Will go with
slight chance to chance POPS for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures
will remain mild with highs in the 70s. The rain will end by late
Tuesday night and a dry forecast is in store for Wednesday.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  60  75  49  75 /  50  50   5   0   0
San Angelo  78  59  78  42  79 /  50  50   5   0   0
Junction  80  64  81  38  80 /  70  70  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/21/Johnson/Huber





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

 149 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER ONTARIO WITH A STRONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENDING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. AREAS OF SHOWERS TO OUR WEST IN KENTUCKY
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CUT BACK POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR SOME SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 955 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE COMBINATION OF WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AND
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING EASTWARD AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
RESULTING IN AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING. THE 12Z/8AM RNK SOUNDING
SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP 550 MB WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND PWATS THAT HAVE CLIMBED TO 1.05 INCHES. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION INTO THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST. DECIDED TO RAISE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR OBS AND MODEL TRENDS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES LATER...


AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. DESPITE WARM FRONT...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND THROUGH
850MB...CROSSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
THIS EVENING...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY DECENT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS UNTIL THIS EVENING.

TWO SHORT WAVE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND FROM
SOUTHERN OHIO ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE INCREASED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA.

FORECAST AREA MOVES INTO A WARMER AIR MASS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WERE
STARTING OUT MILD SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL END UP SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY. KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD FOR TONIGHT
     LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS FOR TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH IN LOCATIONS THAT GET RAIN FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THURSDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING A WELL-ADVERTISED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THURSDAY WILL BE VERY MILD
AGAIN WITH TEMPS HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY BY CLOUD COVER BUT STILL
REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL UPPER 60S WEST TO MID-70S EAST. FRONTAL
TIMING ON LATEST MODELS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH FRONT REACHING WESTERN MOUNTAINS DURING EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.

A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS FORECAST RANGING GENERALLY FROM 0.25 TO 0.75
INCHES. THIS DESPITE VERY HIGH MOISTURE FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH BOTH
NAM/GFS PWATS OF 1.45 INCHES AT KRNK WHICH IS >99 PERCENTILE (+3
SD) FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE FAIRLY RAPID EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE BEST
FORCING LIMITING THE DURATION OF RAINFALL. STILL IF THE BOUNDARY
IS HELD UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE
HIGHER..APPROACHING 1 INCH.

MAIN CONTINUING CONCERN IS STILL DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS AND SHEAR AHEAD AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS SPC SHOWS SLIGHT
RISK JUST TO OUR WEST OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS BY 12Z/FRI. POSSIBLE
SVR GUSTS COULD DEVELOP IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION THAT FORMS AS BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW SSW WINDS AT H85
RANGING FROM 50 TO 65 MPH ON GFS/NAM ROUGHLY BETWEEN 03Z-09Z FRI.
CAPE IS OBVIOUSLY VERY LIMITED OR NEGLIGIBLE DURING THIS TIME BUT
CHANCES FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT COUNTIES TOWARD MID TO LATE DAY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY IF THE BOUNDARY IS HELD UP AT ALL TO ALLOW FOR LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER SHOULD BE EAST OF CWA BY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH COOLER BUT NOT PARTICULARLY COLD AIR DROPPING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS ONLY FALL OFF TO AROUND 5C
BY EARLY SATURDAY. START OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SEASONABLE WITH HIGH SATURDAY FROM UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 60S
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEND THEMSELVES TO A TREND
TOWARD LOWER TEMPERATURES... AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL YIELD A DOWNSLOPE
SUBSIDENCE FLOW THAT WILL GREATLY LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN
THIS REGION AND ADD AN ELEMENT OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING THAT WILL
ONLY SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING AN END TO THE UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS...AND LIMITED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE COAST. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ONSHORE THE SC/GA COASTS WHICH WILL THEN HEAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS TREND WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY WE ARE ONLY FORECASTING THAT MOISTURE TO
BE REALIZED IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIT OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF RAIN AND LOWER CLOUDS ARE ENDING
AND LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO VFR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST TONIGHT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE RAIN THIS MORNING...AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. LWB HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR LIFR/IFR FOG.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG WEATHER
SYSTEM/COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST THU
NIGHT/EARLY FRI...WITH IFR-LIFR CIGS AND MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
+SHRA BR/FG. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRONT THU AFTERNOON...BUT MUCH OF THU SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. EXPECT
GUSTY SW WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AS WELL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH IFR-MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/KK
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 325 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO RAIN
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA
WITH A WARM FRONT AS SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE NOTED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE EVENING. WHEN THEY FINALLY DO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IT IS LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE AND MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.2 INCHES TONIGHT...WHICH IS 230 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. WITH THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ANY ISOLATED
STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE UP TO 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE
LOW WILL PUSH EAST OVER LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SO WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON INTO HALLOWEEN
EVENING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE
2-4.5 KFT RANGE. WEAK OMEGA IN THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED
TO START OUT RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES
THEN FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND BY EARLY EVEN
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE 900-850 MB LAYER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE
TROUGH THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  THE TROUGH THEN
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE
SATURDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT WE SHOULD SEE
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND PUSHES EAST. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
ONTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS
UP OVER THE AREA FROM THE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE FOG HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. THE 30.12Z RAP INDICATES THERE WILL
BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE IFR CATEGORY. THE 30.12Z NAM
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND PUSH THE INVERTED TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW INTO
THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING
RAIN INTO BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS SOME ELEVATED
CAPE IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS NOT VERY HIGH SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SWING THE WINDS AROUND
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF THE AIRPORTS SO EXPECT THE
RAIN TO COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO KEEP THE CEILINGS LOW AND
IN THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
STARTS TO MOVE IN SO INCREASED THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AS THIS HAPPENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04







AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1211 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING WITH THE DENSE
FOG. VISIBILITIES REMAIN AROUND A QUARTER OF A MILE ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE AREA HAS SLOWLY EXPANDED NORTH SOME AS THE FOG IS
GETTING ADVECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE 30.12Z RAP
AND NAM DO NOT SHOW ANY REAL CHANGES OCCURRING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THROUGH AT THE LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER POSSIBLY GETS LIFTED
NORTH INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MISS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH IF
IT CONTINUES ON ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT. WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND IT SLIGHTLY
TO COVER WHERE THE FOG IS CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO BE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 814 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES ARE
SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR OUR NORTHEAST IOWA
COUNTIES...AND RICHLAND AND GRANT COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN. EXPECTING
THIS DENSE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MID TO POSSIBLY LATE MORNING
HOURS. ONCE THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
326 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS PRECIPITATION CHANCE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER KS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH REACHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MN. BROAD
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LEADING
TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS IA AND INTO
MN/WI. INDEED RADAR LOOPS AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. IT MAY NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH...WITH TRACE TO
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR MOST PLACES.

MAIN WAVE AND SURFACE LOW/TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHWEST WI. MODELS
DO SHOW SOME MINIMAL CAPE NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
EVENING...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THERE.

SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
326 AM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...BUT APPEARING LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT TO GENERATE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN MN
INTO NORTHERN WI. THAT SYSTEM SHOULD DEPART BY SATURDAY...AS UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER TO
PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS ONE WILL KEEP THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS. MODELS SOLUTIONS REALLY DIVERGE AT
ABOUT THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING A DEEPER LONG WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS EJECT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SLOWING THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND FEEDING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDER FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT ADD THE THUNDER...BUT DID GO WITH THE WETTER
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE FOG HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. THE 30.12Z RAP INDICATES THERE WILL
BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT THE FOG TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO KEEP THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE IFR CATEGORY. THE 30.12Z NAM
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND PUSH THE INVERTED TROUGH AND A SURFACE LOW INTO
THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS...THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRINGING
RAIN INTO BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER AS SOME ELEVATED
CAPE IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS NOT VERY HIGH SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE INVERTED TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SWING THE WINDS AROUND
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL BECOME FOCUSED EAST OF THE AIRPORTS SO EXPECT THE
RAIN TO COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO KEEP THE CEILINGS LOW AND
IN THE IFR CATEGORY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
STARTS TO MOVE IN SO INCREASED THE VISIBILITY TO MVFR AS THIS HAPPENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ053>055-
     061.

MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ094>096.

IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...04
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...04