Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/29/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
703 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
UPDATED TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND WRF. DELAYED THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WITH A RAMP UP OF POPS BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THAT...JUST
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PEAKS. REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR THIS EVENING...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO KANSAS...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CAUTION IS ADVISED TOWARD MORNING FOR
PATCHY BLACK ICE. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR
DRIZZLE. DELAYED WARMING ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING. PUEBLO MAY BE IN THE 30S TO 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY UNTIL MIXING TAKES OVER BY MID AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
COOL FRONT HAS SLIPPED DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER WITH THE BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE STATE LINE. NE COLO WAS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
THESE CLOUDS WERE JUST MAKING IT INTO EXTREME N AND NE EL PASO COUNTY.
A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT LINES WERE NOTED OVER S EL PASO
AND N PUEBLO COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND
SHIFT LINES (NE WINDS VS SE WINDS).
ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER NEVADA AND WAS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WAS NOTED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM PER WATER VAP IMGY.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDER. SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW TSRA
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS
REASON KEPT VERY SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE BORDER FOR THIS EVENING. I AM
HIGHLY CONFIDENT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT DO NOT KNOW WHICH SIDE
OF THE BORDER IT WILL INITIATE ON. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH A
5% CHANCE OF SVR (HAIL).
2ND CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT. VERY CONFIDENT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH ON HOW FAR WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT BACK TOWARDS THE
MTNS. LATEST HRRR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MTNS. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS LOOKS REALISTIC
AND WILL LIKELY ADD MORE CLOUDS INTO THE NDFD.
OVER THE CONTDVD...MSTR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS...WITH INSIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS.
SOME FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY. SFC BOUNDARY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER WILL LIKELY PUSH
NORTH TOMORROW...BUT HOW FAR N IS THE QUESTION. ATTM...I HAVE THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KCOS DOWN TO KSPD BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. LIKEWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE S TIER
FOR THE FCST AREA...AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT ACROSS EL PASO SO
COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WARM WINDS THIS LOCATION BY MID DAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE KPUB AREA WILL NOT MIX OUT TOMORROW WHILE EL PASO COUNTY
DOES MIX OUT. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AT KCOS MAY BE WARMER THAN KPUB.
IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN CURRENT FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS.
SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 10KFT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY ANY WHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...AND 40 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
/HODANISH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS A UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS
THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.
RECENT LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DOUBLE-BARRELED CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY
LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEVADA
RESPECTIVELY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY WILL ROTATE INTO AN EASTERN
WYOMING/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO LOCATION BY 00Z THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 18Z THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING(I.E. PORTIONS OF PUBLIC ZONES 58/59/60 AND POSSIBLY 66/68
AND 82).
IN ADDITION...EVEN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 58/59/60 AND POSSIBLY 66/68 AND 82 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z/28TH ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. ZONE 60 MAY BE THE MOST PRONE TO RECEIVE WINTER STORM
WARNING TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT...ONCE AGAIN IF THE 12Z/28TH ECMWF
IS CORRECT. WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED
HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED AND AS WE NEAR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
GUSTY WINDS(AROUND 50 KNOTS AT TIMES)...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. FINALLY...WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF
THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
LATEST HRRR IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUDS MAKING IT BACK TO THE
MTNS. LOW CIGS MAY AFFECT KCOS AND KPUB BY 06Z...AND MAY LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS TO TAF BEFORE ROUTINE 00Z
ISSUANCE. KALS WILL BE VFR TONIGHT.
IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY AT ALL TAF SITES TOMORROW WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KPUB MAY NOT MIX OUT AND
WINDS MAY REMAIN LIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...THE SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
S-CNTRL QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE SHORES FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER W-CNTRL NY. THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN HAS
DRIED UP OVER THE FCST AREA...AND MUCH OF IT HAS ERODED DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z KALB SOUNDING BELOW THE
775 HPA LAYER. THE T/TD DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE...AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS ONLY RECEIVED MAINLY SPRINKLES. THE PCPN SHOULD
INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z BASED ON THE HRRR WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE NW ZONES /WRN DACKS/...WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE
BEING TAPPED.
HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
MORE MOISTURE STARVED...AS IT HEADS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 06Z-12Z. ONLY SLIGHT OR VERY
LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AN
INCH OR SO OVER THE WRN DACKS. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FT WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEPEND HOW FAST THE COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS IN BTWN 06Z-
12Z...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. OVERALL...THIS IS SHAPING
UP AS A VERY LIGHT PCPN EVENT. LOWS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS TO M30S OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE VALLEYS
WITH STILL A CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SO THERE
COULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE LOW STARTS TO
BACK TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AS THE FLOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD PASS BY NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE FAST UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEMS...AND TIMING OF RAIN AND DRY PERIODS...AS WELL AS CLOUD
COVER TRENDS...WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WITH EACH SET OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE NT-WED...BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES...A FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE SFC REFLECTION...AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 12Z/GEFS...GFS AND GEM INDICATE THAT A SFC
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION TUE NT-WED MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTES TO LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ECMWF APPEARS A BIT LESS EMPHATIC OVERALL WITH SFC
REFLECTION AND QPF...AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL INDICATE
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR WOULD BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND
INTERSTATE 90 NORTH...SHOULD PRECIP REACH THAT FAR NORTH. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP TO TAPER OFF BY WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT TUE NT/WED AM MINS TO
FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH WED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S IN
MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
WED NT-THU NT...WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INDICATED THE CHANCES POPS
FOR SHOWERS FOR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S WED NT...RISE INTO THE 50S ON THU...AND DROP TO 45-50 FOR
THU NT.
FRI-SAT...A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINDY
WEATHER...ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS FRI
NT/SAT AM MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD ADVECTION MAY BE A
BIT MODIFIED SINCE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH COULD SET UP FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST TO THE WEST. HIGHS
SATURDAY AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
OR ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE SPRINKLES IN THE AREA. ANY MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BE TOO BRIEF TO MENTION IN TAFS THROUGH 12Z-13Z SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE TAF SITES BTWN 10Z-13Z...THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DECREASING TO SKC THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS WILL VEER TO W/SW AFTER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE
WEST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...SHSN.
WED-WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
OVERALL RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER.
ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FROM A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL/NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
TODAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OFF THE COAST LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE EARLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY SHARP MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF IS MOVG EWD THROUGH PA AND IS
FCST TO BE OFF THE NJ COAST BY AROUND 12Z. THE RAP INDICATES
STRONG DOWNWARD VV AND DRYING BEHIND THE TROF WHICH IS HELPING TO
DECREASE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF PA ATTM. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD SO THAT BY SUNRISE THE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OVER
MOST OF ERN PA AS WELL AS NJ AND NRN DELMARVA. THE ASSOCD SFC
FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED IN THE SFC OBS BUT THERE IS
A DEFINITE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WEST. MID CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING...BUT WITH A
CLEARING TREND TEMPS MAY FALL YET A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY...THERE IS ONLY RATHER WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YDAY. WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE PBL ARE FCST AT 20-25
KT AND MIXING SHOULD BRING MOMENTUM DOWN RESULTING IN SOME
GUSTINESS AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW RH AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WITH GOOD
RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EXCEPT LOW 40S
IN AND AROUND PHILA METRO AREA AND NEAR THE SHORE. FOR AREAS WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE...SOME SCT FROST IS POSSIBLE
BUT A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LOSE IT INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AS
THE FEATURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
ON MONDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO COVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS
WELL AS THE ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY
IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON MONDAY. THE
SEGMENT THAT SHOULD AFFECT US WILL LIKELY HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST LATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME RAIN WITH THE FEATURE. FOR NOW, WE
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES
IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE MODELS, WE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD ON REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
WE WILL INDICATE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO TIME THE COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL FOR EARLY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR RESULTING IN
A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TOWARD NORMAL
AFTER EARLY SATURDAY`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF FCST PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING EWD AND WILL SOON BE OUT OF THE PICTURE. EARLIER SW WIND
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SHOULD CONT FROM THE W TO WNW
TODAY. SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME TODAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND BECOME 5
KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST WATERS HAS BEEN
LEFT AS IS FOR NOW...BEING SET TO EXPIRE AT 600 AM. EARLIER GUSTY
SW WINDS HAVE BEGUN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT. SEAS AT BUOY 4409 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT HWVR.
WILL MONITOR THE MARINE OBS...WHAT WE HAVE...AND PERHAPS EXTEND
THE SCA A COUPLE OF HOURS IF NEED BE. WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TODAY.
OTRW...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONT TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
DIFFUSE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD TO THE COAST BY EARLY
MONDAY MORN.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY IN AN INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
654 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
The 28.12Z 250 hPa RAOB map showed WSW-WNW of around 100 kt extending
from KTUS/KFGZ to KDEN. At 500 hPa, a large 542 dm cyclone was located
across western Nevada. Mid level cyclonic flow and a cold pool of -25C
were associated with the pressure perturbation. At 700 hPa, KDDC temp
was 5C, 1 degree warming compared yesterdays 12Z RAOB. More pronounced
warming was noted at 850 hPa, observed at 17C versus 11C. At the sfc,
a stationary front was noted across west-central Kansas. A weak dryline
was noted across south-central Kansas. Dewpoints in the 50sF were advecting
in from the south, east and south of said boundaries. Hurricane Raymond
was located at 15.3N 116.8W at 28.03Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
...Low end severe weather event possible this evening...
This evening:
Main concern for tonight is where convection will develop. Have the
most confidence in convective initiation across the west central zones
along a quasi-stationary boundary. The HRRR/NAM/4km NAM and WRF-NMM
core shows thunderstorms developing along this quasi-stationary boundary
towards the 00-01Z time frame. 0-6 km bulk shear of 60 km is more than
adequate for rotating storms. In addition, there is strong anvil layer
bulk shear for good storm top ventilation. A few negatives... first,
mean flow is essentially parallel to the boundary, which will favor
upscale convective growth. This should limit overall hail size through
means of high beneficial competition for hail embryos. Farther south,
some of the mesoscale models such as the 4 km NAM show convection developing
along a weak dryline across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and drifting
NE across the southeastern zones late tonight. In this region, MUCAPE
is higher (500-1500 J/kg range) and there is more orthogonality to
the sfc boundary, which could favor more isolated storms later this
evening. Still a few negatives here though... cloud cover has hung around
and dewpoints are marginal (well for October, actually good, but for
instability - marginal). Bottom line, a low end severe event with
a few hail and wind reports. Tornado chances are slim to none.
Tuesday:
Widespread low clouds are expected through the overnight. The thermodynamic
profile could support patchy drizzle late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Overnight minimums will be very mild for late October standards...
low 60sF southeast to around 50F northwest. Will have to watch out for
record maximum minimums being set. Otherwise, a front will bisect the
region. North of the front, have gone with cooler maximums as stratus
could stick around. South of the front, a 800-600 hPa dry slot could
result in morning clearing. An addition, pre-frontal warming/downslope
plume will result in the highest maximums south of the Arkansas river.
Have a gradient of maximums from 50sF northwest to 70sF southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
A surface boundary will be located across western Kansas Tuesday
night. Exact location of this boundary however is still somewhat
unclear, but all models were hinting at a slightly further north
solution that what was previously thought. Still given this trend am
leaning towards the NAMs further south solution given precipitation
chances tonight across northern Kansas which will enforce the cold
air north of this boundary. As a result of where this boundary will
be located Tuesday night and surface dewpoints near 60F ahead of
this front will raise overnight lows for south central and portions
of southwest Kansas. As for precipitation chances...warm air
advection/isentropic lift will develop early Tuesday night north of
the surface boundary with convection developing further south
appearing to hold off until a weak short wave trough moves out of
the Rockies and out into the central high plains towards midnight.
At this time it appears the better opportunity for precipitation
will be across south central and north central Kansas between
midnight and 18z Wednesday.
The GFS, ECMWF, and Ensembles were in decent agreement today with
the upper level trough crossing western Kansas early Thursday. As
this upper level trough passes, the surface front will move south
into north Texas as high pressure at the surface crosses the Rockies
and approaches the central high plains from the northwest. More
seasonal temperatures can be expected as this surface high builds
into western Kansas late week with afternoon highs mainly in the low
to mid 60s. Another upper level trough will move out of the Rockies
and across the central plains late week, however only mid to high
level moisture is forecast to accompany this next, weaker upper
level system.
A gradual warming trend can be expected over the weekend period as
an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies and out into the
plains. A northwest flow will back more to the west by early Sunday
and a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen along the
lee of the Rockies. Following the mean 850mb temperature trends from
00z to 00z the potential exists for highs climbing back into the
lower 70s by Sunday afternoon. A cold front will be moving south
into the northern plains late this weekend and another pacific upper
level trough is forecast to move across the pacific northwest.
Timing of this next cold front moving south into the central plains
on day 7 is unclear, and given the location of the upper trough by
12z Monday am currently leaning towards the slower ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
Details of the terminal forecasts this evening are dependent on how
widespread the convection develops through 3 and 6 UTC. The
mesoscale models develop discreet supercell storms across the area,
any of which would have the chance to impact the local terminals. A
broken line of elevated cells has already developed near liberal,
moving northeast toward Garden city. We`ve introduced TEMPO
convective period to each terminal and will likely requires a few
amendments thorough the evening. Following the convective threat this
evening, widespread LIFR stratus is likely to develop supported by
the HRRR ceiling forecast through the afternoon Tuesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 59 74 54 67 / 70 10 20 20
GCK 51 66 47 61 / 80 10 20 10
EHA 46 75 45 68 / 50 10 10 10
LBL 52 77 50 69 / 50 10 10 10
HYS 57 66 49 56 / 70 20 40 30
P28 63 77 61 74 / 70 20 40 40
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Sugden
SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
916 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST
TOWARDS THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 14Z PER LATEST HRRR RUN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWERS CURRENTLY PARKED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTH EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. IN THE NORTH HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
A DRY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND
NOON. FARTHER SOUTH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT AREAS DOWNWIND TO SEE CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MONDAY NGT AND
TUESDAY THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E WEDNESDAY NGT AS DRY FAIR WX PERSISTS. ON
THURSDAY AN INTENSE UPR LVL SYSTEM BRINGS LOW PRES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A SURGE OF VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR SPREADING TOWARD THE
NE ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX AND PRCP...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AND MAYBE CONT INTO SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE MODELS
WHICH SHOW VARIABILITY ON TIMING WHEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ALLOWING THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST..
USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5...THEN USED A SUPER BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THRU
8.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR MONDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY NGT. PRCP AND INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...NW FLOW BEHIND COLD
FRONT COULD GUST TO SCA LEVELS AND SEAS COULD STILL BE AROUND SCA
LEVELS MONDAY NGT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LARGE WX SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO. WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF WAVE HAS PRODUCED SOME PCPN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS ALSO BLOSSOMED ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI...DRY AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC
OBS INDICATE SOME PCPN OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
HEALTHY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB/3HR WITH FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH GRADIENT WIND WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NRLY WINDS
BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS
OVERWATER INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS (850MB TEMPS DROP FROM ROUGHLY
-4/-5C AT 00Z TO -9/-11C BY 06Z). WINDS WILL LIKELY GUSTS TO AROUND
40MPH AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN ALONG COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ACT ON OVERWATER INSTABILITY
(LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 13C). AFTER A PERIOD OF SHRASN IN VCNTY
OF COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO N TO NE FLOW LES AS
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17C OR BETTER. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE STRONG NEGATIVES WORKING AGAINST MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT LES.
FIRST...LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC AS SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND SECOND...
INVERSION CRASHES TO 4KFT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMP ZONE
REMAINING ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE N TO NE FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...INCLUDING
EVENING PCPN ALONG FRONT...WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPING OCCURS SUCH AS
THE HURON MTNS). LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT MOISTENING FROM LAKE NIPIGON MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF
MORE PERSISTENT LES INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND KIWD/PORCUPINE
MTNS.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
DURING MON. ALTHOUGH INVERSION BASE TEMP AROUND -10C PROVIDES A
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 17C OR SO...LES WILL STRUGGLE MON DUE TO
SHARP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A LOW INVERSION AT 3-4KFT. COMBINED WITH
EARLY SEASON NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF LES ENDING EARLY IN
THE AFTN. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME FLURRIES TO LINGER
ALONG THE TRAJECTORY DOWN WIND FROM LAKE NIPIGON. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL
BE ANTICYCLONIC...MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY
LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU THRU THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
AT 00Z TUE...A 1035MB SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA
AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(AT LEAST INLAND)...MON NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS INLAND
AND INTO THE 20S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED AS AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING LEEWARD OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT TO JUST S OF THE CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
CWA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER
THE SRN CWA. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...BUT ANY
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW GIVEN ONLY A SHALLOW
WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. HIGHS ON TUE LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.
THEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SETUP...THEY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
MORE SPECIFIC AND IMPORTANT DETAILS WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA...THIS LEADS TO A DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. MODEL VARIABILITY (BOTH
BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH INTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY) MAY SEEM
SMALL WITH RELATION TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW IT WILL MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN WIND/WAVE
FORECASTS AND WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS/TIMING. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FUTURE RUNS AS IS
COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MOST
(IF NOT ALL) PRECIP WILL BE RAIN GIVEN 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO UP
TO 10C AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...OR A BIT COLDER IF THE SYSTEM STAY S OF
THE CWA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE
RAIN...AND AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWA.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THAT PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW WITH TIME. 850MB
TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DECEASE FROM -2C AT 00Z SAT TO AROUND
-7C BY 00Z SUN. LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC TO
NEUTRAL IN DIRECTIONAL CHANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUN AS MODELS DIFFER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVERALL IN
EXTENDED FORECAST...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR
WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS IN DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH UPSLOPE/MOISTER NORTHERLY FLOW AIDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG PRES RISES
BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE MORE LIKELY
AT KSAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE SHARPEST. THE VIS AT
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHSN. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KIWD EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB/3HR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR RESULTING IN STRONG
OVERWATER INSTABILITY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35-40KT GALES
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS PRES RISE MAX QUICKLY SHIFTS
S OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL LATER MON THRU EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. LATE WED THRU FRI THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS OF AT LEAST 15-25KT...AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
AT 00Z TUE...A 1035MB SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA
AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(AT LEAST INLAND)...MON NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS INLAND
AND INTO THE 20S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED AS AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING LEEWARD OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT TO JUST S OF THE CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
CWA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER
THE SRN CWA. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...BUT ANY
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW GIVEN ONLY A SHALLOW
WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. HIGHS ON TUE LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.
THEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SETUP...THEY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
MORE SPECIFIC AND IMPORTANT DETAILS WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA...THIS LEADS TO A DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. MODEL VARIABILITY (BOTH
BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH INTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY) MAY SEEM
SMALL WITH RELATION TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW IT WILL MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN WIND/WAVE
FORECASTS AND WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS/TIMING. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FUTURE RUNS AS IS
COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MOST
(IF NOT ALL) PRECIP WILL BE RAIN GIVEN 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO UP
TO 10C AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...OR A BIT COLDER IF THE SYSTEM STAY S OF
THE CWA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE
RAIN...AND AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWA.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THAT PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW WITH TIME. 850MB
TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DECEASE FROM -2C AT 00Z SAT TO AROUND
-7C BY 00Z SUN. LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC TO
NEUTRAL IN DIRECTIONAL CHANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUN AS MODELS DIFFER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVERALL IN
EXTENDED FORECAST...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR
WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS IN DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH UPSLOPE/MOISTER NORTHERLY FLOW AIDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG PRES RISES
BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE MORE LIKELY
AT KSAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE SHARPEST. THE VIS AT
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHSN. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KIWD EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY WILL RELAX THIS
WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INITIAL
SALVO...IN AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE...OCCURS ON MONDAY
AS SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE EXPANDING INTO FAIRLY
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EASING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...LK EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT FOR NE FLOW AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TIED INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...EVEN AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP ARE NEAR -10C AT
12Z ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS HIGHER H9 MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT EVEN THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER MONDAY AFTN.
ONCE THE DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS BRING H3-H2 JET ENERGY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW...IMPACTING EVENTUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS
ARE QUICKER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH. NO REAL SURPRISE THERE. WPC PREFERS
THE SLOWER IDEA...WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS WHAT VERIFIES WHEN
CUTOFF TYPE LOWS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...ON TUESDAY
WILL DISMISS THE FARTHER EAST H5 TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL PLAINS
TROUGHING/WETTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS AND GO WITH ECMWF IDEA.
00Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM VERY WET 26/18Z SOLUTION...LOOKING MORE LIKE
ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN ECMWF IDEA HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER 1000-850/850-700MB
THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC...AS FORCING FM
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM AND DIVERGENCE FM UPPER JET STREAK
INTERACT WITH H85 FRONT/HIGHER H85-H7 RH BANKED UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
IF THE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ATTN BY MIDWEEK SQUARELY ON UPPER TROUGH OVER NATIONS MID SECTION
AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES MOVE EAST. RESULT HAS DIRECT BEARING ON HOW
SOON SFC TROUGHING MOVES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ECMWF SLOWEST WHILE THE GEM-NH IS IN BETWEEN. 12Z UKMET
LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY TAKES
ON THE LOOK OF QUICKER GFS. SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS OVER 200 PCT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY SLOT MAY BE AN ISSUE SOMETIME IN
THERE AS WELL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY RESULT
IN TSRA CHANCES TOO. LOCATION OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP AREAS/TSRA
UNCERTAIN AS IS TIMING. PRETTY CLEAR THAT UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP ONCE
FORECAST IS PAST TUESDAY...SO FOR MOST PART USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE DETAILS. TRIED TO INCREASE WINDS SOME THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BOTH STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND
FIELDS AND LOWER PRESSURES MAY RESULT IN ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY.
THANKFLLY PTYPE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR CUT. POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ONLY RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TOWARD
+10C AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A
WHILE TAKES A BREAK AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE OVER 1350M.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TO RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY UNCLEAR
ON THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING THAT WILL BE AROUND BY THAT
TIME THOUGH. CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS IN DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH UPSLOPE/MOISTER NORTHERLY FLOW AIDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG PRES RISES
BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE MORE LIKELY
AT KSAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE SHARPEST. THE VIS AT
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHSN. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KIWD EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY WILL RELAX THIS
WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INITIAL
SALVO...IN AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE...OCCURS ON MONDAY
AS SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE EXPANDING INTO FAIRLY
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EASING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...LK EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT FOR NE FLOW AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TIED INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...EVEN AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP ARE NEAR -10C AT
12Z ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS HIGHER H9 MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT EVEN THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER MONDAY AFTN.
ONCE THE DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS BRING H3-H2 JET ENERGY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW...IMPACTING EVENTUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS
ARE QUICKER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH. NO REAL SURPRISE THERE. WPC PREFERS
THE SLOWER IDEA...WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS WHAT VERIFIES WHEN
CUTOFF TYPE LOWS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...ON TUESDAY
WILL DISMISS THE FARTHER EAST H5 TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL PLAINS
TROUGHING/WETTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS AND GO WITH ECMWF IDEA.
00Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM VERY WET 26/18Z SOLUTION...LOOKING MORE LIKE
ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN ECMWF IDEA HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER 1000-850/850-700MB
THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC...AS FORCING FM
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM AND DIVERGENCE FM UPPER JET STREAK
INTERACT WITH H85 FRONT/HIGHER H85-H7 RH BANKED UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
IF THE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ATTN BY MIDWEEK SQUARELY ON UPPER TROUGH OVER NATIONS MID SECTION
AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES MOVE EAST. RESULT HAS DIRECT BEARING ON HOW
SOON SFC TROUGHING MOVES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ECMWF SLOWEST WHILE THE GEM-NH IS IN BETWEEN. 12Z UKMET
LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY TAKES
ON THE LOOK OF QUICKER GFS. SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS OVER 200 PCT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY SLOT MAY BE AN ISSUE SOMETIME IN
THERE AS WELL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY RESULT
IN TSRA CHANCES TOO. LOCATION OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP AREAS/TSRA
UNCERTAIN AS IS TIMING. PRETTY CLEAR THAT UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP ONCE
FORECAST IS PAST TUESDAY...SO FOR MOST PART USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE DETAILS. TRIED TO INCREASE WINDS SOME THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BOTH STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND
FIELDS AND LOWER PRESSURES MAY RESULT IN ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY.
THANKFLLY PTYPE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR CUT. POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ONLY RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TOWARD
+10C AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A
WHILE TAKES A BREAK AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE OVER 1350M.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TO RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY UNCLEAR
ON THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING THAT WILL BE AROUND BY THAT
TIME THOUGH. CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES MOST OF TODAY
WITH DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. ONCE THE FNT
PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG...MVFR CONDITIONS WL DVLP WITH
UPSLOPE AND MOISTER NNW FLOW. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND
QUICKLY SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FROPA...THESE WINDS WL
BE QUITE GUSTY. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LK EFFECT -SHSN ARE
MOST LIKELY AT SAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST.
THE VSBY AT SAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHSN. WINDS WL TEND TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH CLOSER APRCH OF HI CENTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY WILL RELAX THIS
WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INITIAL
SALVO...IN AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE...OCCURS ON MONDAY
AS SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE EXPANDING INTO FAIRLY
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EASING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...LK EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT FOR NE FLOW AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TIED INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...EVEN AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP ARE NEAR -10C AT
12Z ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS HIGHER H9 MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT EVEN THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER MONDAY AFTN.
ONCE THE DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS BRING H3-H2 JET ENERGY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW...IMPACTING EVENTUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS
ARE QUICKER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH. NO REAL SURPRISE THERE. WPC PREFERS
THE SLOWER IDEA...WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS WHAT VERIFIES WHEN
CUTOFF TYPE LOWS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...ON TUESDAY
WILL DISMISS THE FARTHER EAST H5 TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL PLAINS
TROUGHING/WETTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS AND GO WITH ECMWF IDEA.
00Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM VERY WET 26/18Z SOLUTION...LOOKING MORE LIKE
ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN ECMWF IDEA HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER 1000-850/850-700MB
THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC...AS FORCING FM
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM AND DIVERGENCE FM UPPER JET STREAK
INTERACT WITH H85 FRONT/HIGHER H85-H7 RH BANKED UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
IF THE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ATTN BY MIDWEEK SQUARELY ON UPPER TROUGH OVER NATIONS MID SECTION
AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES MOVE EAST. RESULT HAS DIRECT BEARING ON HOW
SOON SFC TROUGHING MOVES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ECMWF SLOWEST WHILE THE GEM-NH IS IN BETWEEN. 12Z UKMET
LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY TAKES
ON THE LOOK OF QUICKER GFS. SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS OVER 200 PCT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY SLOT MAY BE AN ISSUE SOMETIME IN
THERE AS WELL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY RESULT
IN TSRA CHANCES TOO. LOCATION OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP AREAS/TSRA
UNCERTAIN AS IS TIMING. PRETTY CLEAR THAT UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP ONCE
FORECAST IS PAST TUESDAY...SO FOR MOST PART USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE DETAILS. TRIED TO INCREASE WINDS SOME THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BOTH STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND
FIELDS AND LOWER PRESSURES MAY RESULT IN ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY.
THANKFLLY PTYPE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR CUT. POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ONLY RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TOWARD
+10C AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A
WHILE TAKES A BREAK AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE OVER 1350M.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TO RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY UNCLEAR
ON THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING THAT WILL BE AROUND BY THAT
TIME THOUGH. CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL BRING BACK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT
ALL SITES AS WINDS AGAIN GO BACK TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW IN SRN QUEBEC. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWED THE FIRST PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTN AND HAS PROVIDED A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SW
QUEBEC. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS RELAXING...AND NOW THAT THE SFC PRES RISE
MAX HAS SLIPPED JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. OBS
OVER THE LAST HR OR TWO SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO DROP
ONGOING WIND ADVYS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
SHORTWAVES THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICKLY DIVING SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN AFTN. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL REACH UPPER MI TONIGHT...
RESULTING IN STEADILY BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL SHIFT ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -7/-8C. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WAA
WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE W AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W IS THE NOTABLY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W TONIGHT. WHAT PCPN
THERE IS MAY END UP MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
DEVELOPS DUE TO LAND BREEZE ENHANCED BACKING OF LARGER SCALE WINDS.
TO THE E...INVERSION IS UP AROUND 7KFT. HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE MOSTLY ABOVE THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...BACKING WINDS AND -SHRA/SN/GRAUPEL MIX AT LEAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WILL ALL WORK TO KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. MAY SEE LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
ON SUN...SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROBABLY MOVING THRU THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI
MID TO LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS BACKING TO THE WSW WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY AFTN. OTHERWISE...IF THERE IS ANY MORNING SUNSHINE...IT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS. MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS OVERTOP ADEQUATE OVERWATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PCPN WILL
DEVELOP OR BE ENHANCED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD S FROM
THE KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING TO MUCH OF THE N HALF OF UPPER MI BY 00Z
MON. WITH WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS INCREASING TO GENERALLY ABOVE
1500FT...PTYPE WILL BECOME MOSTLY RAIN...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE ERN CWA AT 00Z MON AS A 1040MB SFC
HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN CANADA CONTINUES A QUICK TRANSIT TOWARD THE
CWA. AS THE COLDER AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN SUN NIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP...LEADING TO INCREASE N-NNE WINDS
POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL
DECREASE FROM AROUND -5C TO -11C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MON. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE N-NNE WINDS WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW TO CORRESPONDING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR LES...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE OVER
THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...HELPING TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS
OF THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS IN GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF
ALMOST COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON MON AS THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OF THE SFC HIGH DOMINATE.
THE SFC HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO 1033MB AS IT MOVES TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE...MOVING TO THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED WHILE LEAVING
A 1026MB RIDGE OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME QPF OVER OR S OF
THE SRN CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO OR S OF
THE CWA AND WE START WARM ADVECTING. IN FACT...BY 12Z WED...850MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR 0C. THESE TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON TUE AND IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON WED AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 7C.
ALL THIS WARM AIR IS BEING DRAW UP INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW LEEWARD
OF THE CO ROCKIES ON TUE. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL MODELS AGREE DECENTLY ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EITHER
FROM LATE THU/THU NIGHT (12Z/25 GFS SOLUTION) OR ON FRI (00Z/25
ECMWF SOLUTION)...BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH IT AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AGAIN...EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS AND ESPECIALLY WINDS...SO THOSE ARE
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONE ASPECT IS MORE CERTAIN...AND
SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TYPE OF EVENT. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 10C AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND DO NOT FALL BELOW 0C UNTIL THE SFC LOW IS IN QUEBEC. COULD
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRI NIGHT/SAT AS MODELS
BRING COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELED 850MB TEMPS DO NOT GET THAT COLD (AROUND
-6C AT THE COLDEST) SO WOULD NEED ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF ENERGY TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR.
THIS MAY HAPPEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT ON SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL BRING BACK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT
ALL SITES AS WINDS AGAIN GO BACK TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...LINGERING GALES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE...CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND INCREASED OVERWATER
INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35KT GALES SUN
EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS...
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN PREVAIL MON-WED AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1048 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ OVER ERN
NEB IS WHAT WE ARE WAITING ON FOR PRECIP IN THE MPX AREA TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED THE POPS SOME TO MORE REFLECT THE TIMING SEEN WITH THE
HRRR. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...WE ARE LEFT WITH NOT MUCH TO HANG OUR HATS ON FOR
PRECIP GENERATION...SO DID DECREASE POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HOLDING THE MAX AT 50 PERCENT AS THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR P-TYPE...LOOKING AT THE NAM/RAP/HRRR...TEMPS ARE
ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET FOR TONIGHT RIGHT NOW
ACROSS SRN/SW MN SO DID UP TEMPS SOME TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 33 AND 37 FROM ABOUT RWF...TO
THE TWIN CITIES AND DOWN TO RED WING ON SOUTH. ALSO PULLED BACK
SOME ON THE FZRA MENTION HAS BOTH THE HRRR/SREF KEEP THE FZRA
CONFINED TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ANY FZRA MENTION HAS BEEN PUSHED
BACK TO SW OF AN APPLETON TO MARSHALL LINE AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE... 30.70 INCHES... WAS CENTERED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG AT MID AFTERNOON. THE HIGH STRETCHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WAS PROVIDING THE FA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
OF AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GIVE WAY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE... CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING... DRIVES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL
WAA WAS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDERWAY. THE UPGLIDE/SATURATION AND
ADIABATIC OMEGA WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TODAY PAINT A PRETTY
BLEAK PICTURE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHILE THE WRF SOLUTIONS...
ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE 1KM REFLECTIVITY SHOW MORE OF A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS LATTER IDEA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORCING.
AT ANY RATE... THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL MN PER THE
ARW/NMM. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE BUFKIT NAM/GFS PROFILE
DATA. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY
DAYBREAK AND ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES BY MID MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE SATURATION AND
THERMAL PROFILE... THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT ICE/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON THE
ICE WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. SNOW
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WAS A HALF INCH OR LESS... WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN... WHERE LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURE WISE... TRENDED DOWN ON THE LOWS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH FEW CLOUDS AND QUITE DRY AIR IN
PLACE EARLY ON. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN WAA PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE E/NE OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL -RA/-DZ OR
-FZRA/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLDS AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST 0.5 KM REMAIN PROBLEMATIC WITH CHC/S OF -FZRA/-FZDZ
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...SNOW CHC/S WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO DRY CONDS IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. ANOTHER
ASPECT IS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHG FROM
TUESDAY AFTN/THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LITTLE MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYERS OCCURS. THUS WITH TEMPS HOLDING NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK ACROSS CENTRAL MN...ANY PRECIPITATION COULD FREEZE ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AND LESS TRAVELED
ROADS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS RAPIDLY MOVING
STORM SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA IN FAR SOUTHERN MN DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
GENERATE SOME -RA...PERHAPS SOME -SN THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE STORM WX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
LOOKING AT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
NAM...IS LOOKING LIKE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAYS PRECIP EVENT MAY TURN
OUT TO BE MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED TAFS
MUCH...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE SNOW MENTION FROM EAU. GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM NOT MUCH HAPPENING /HRRR/ TO A
GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH /18Z GFS/...HAVE CONTINUED TO
BE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH PRECIP IN TAFS. BASED ON ALL THE DRY
AIR IN THE MPX 00Z SOUNDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER END OF
THINGS RIGHT NOW. FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP WOULD SUGGEST MVFR CIGS IN
TAFS ARE WAY OVER DONE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF WRN MN...WITH THE RAP
SHOWING MOST MPX TAFS ENJOYING VFR CONDS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND WITH THAT...LOOKS LIKELY THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN MSP SEEING ANY PRECIP
TUE MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 12-16Z WHERE A
BRIEF RA OR SN SHOWER COULD BE SEEN...BUT LATEST RUNS OF THE
NAM/HRRR DO NOT LEAVE MUCH HOPE FOR THAT OCCURRING. IN
ADDITION...THE RAP WOULD SAY OTHER THAN THAT 12-16Z PRECIP
WINDOW...CIGS WILL BE VFR ON TUESDAY...SO THE PROGRESSION OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE SW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS CONDITIONS MAY
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH RA LIKELY IN AFTN. WINDS E 10KTS.
THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -RA ENDING IN MRNG. WINDS BCMG W 10-15KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS W 15G25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 824 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
BAND OF SHOWERS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ OVER ERN
NEB IS WHAT WE ARE WAITING ON FOR PRECIP IN THE MPX AREA TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED THE POPS SOME TO MORE REFLECT THE TIMING SEEN WITH THE
HRRR. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND BY THE
AFTERNOON...WE ARE LEFT WITH NOT MUCH TO HANG OUR HATS ON FOR
PRECIP GENERATION...SO DID DECREASE POPS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HOLDING THE MAX AT 50 PERCENT AS THIS
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. FOR P-TYPE...LOOKING AT THE NAM/RAP/HRRR...TEMPS ARE
ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET FOR TONIGHT RIGHT NOW
ACROSS SRN/SW MN SO DID UP TEMPS SOME TONIGHT...WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 33 AND 37 FROM ABOUT RWF...TO
THE TWIN CITIES AND DOWN TO RED WING ON SOUTH. ALSO PULLED BACK
SOME ON THE FZRA MENTION HAS BOTH THE HRRR/SREF KEEP THE FZRA
CONFINED TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE. ANY FZRA MENTION HAS BEEN PUSHED
BACK TO SW OF AN APPLETON TO MARSHALL LINE AS A RESULT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE... 30.70 INCHES... WAS CENTERED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG AT MID AFTERNOON. THE HIGH STRETCHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WAS PROVIDING THE FA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
OF AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GIVE WAY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE... CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING... DRIVES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL
WAA WAS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDERWAY. THE UPGLIDE/SATURATION AND
ADIABATIC OMEGA WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TODAY PAINT A PRETTY
BLEAK PICTURE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHILE THE WRF SOLUTIONS...
ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE 1KM REFLECTIVITY SHOW MORE OF A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS LATTER IDEA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORCING.
AT ANY RATE... THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL MN PER THE
ARW/NMM. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE BUFKIT NAM/GFS PROFILE
DATA. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY
DAYBREAK AND ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES BY MID MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE SATURATION AND
THERMAL PROFILE... THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT ICE/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON THE
ICE WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. SNOW
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WAS A HALF INCH OR LESS... WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN... WHERE LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURE WISE... TRENDED DOWN ON THE LOWS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH FEW CLOUDS AND QUITE DRY AIR IN
PLACE EARLY ON. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN WAA PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE E/NE OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL -RA/-DZ OR
-FZRA/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLDS AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST 0.5 KM REMAIN PROBLEMATIC WITH CHC/S OF -FZRA/-FZDZ
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...SNOW CHC/S WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO DRY CONDS IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. ANOTHER
ASPECT IS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHG FROM
TUESDAY AFTN/THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LITTLE MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYERS OCCURS. THUS WITH TEMPS HOLDING NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK ACROSS CENTRAL MN...ANY PRECIPITATION COULD FREEZE ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AND LESS TRAVELED
ROADS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS RAPIDLY MOVING
STORM SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA IN FAR SOUTHERN MN DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
GENERATE SOME -RA...PERHAPS SOME -SN THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE STORM WX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS ALSO THE SOURCE OF MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING THE GFS BEING RATHER GUNG-HO WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE RAP ALONG WITH THE HRRR...HOPWRF...AND OTHER
HIRES MODELS ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH BOTH THE GENERATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. AT THE MOMENT...WE ARE SEEING TWO BANDS OF
PRECIP ON REGIONAL RADAR...ONE FROM NRN IA BACK WNW TO SW NODAK.
THIS IS MAINLY VIRGA...THOUGH HAS THROWN OUT A SPIT OR TWO OF
RAIN...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
SECOND...MORE ROBUST BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB ON THE NOSE OF THE H85 LLJ...AND THIS IS WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATOR. THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE
ARWWRF SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS BAND...AND TIMING OF THIS
BAND BY THESE MODELS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH GOING TAFS...SO
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE TAF FOR PRECIP TIMING. ALL THAT
WAS DONE WAS TO SPEED UP START OF SNOW AT AXN. BY THE AFTERNOON...
FORCING TURNS INTO MORE OF JUST BROAD AND WEAK WAA AND MID LEVEL
FGEN...WHICH LIKELY MEANS RATHER DISORGANIZED BOUTS OF -RA MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...ENDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT MOST
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON. RAP ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM HAVE COME
IN A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPS ACROSS SRN MN TONIGHT...SO FZRA
POTENTIAL IS LOOKING QUITE LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PTYPE PROBS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...WHICH HAS EITHER SNOW OR RAIN...WITH FZRA PROB
AT ALL MPX TERMINALS AT 0%. AS FOR CIGS...THEY WILL DROP QUICKLY
TO MVFR WHEN PRECIP MOVES IN. BY THE AFTERNOON...SREF/NAM
INDICATING THAT CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE BACK TO VFR ACROSS ERN MN
AND WI...BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS TOWARD IFR TUESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS EARLY AS 10Z...BUT MAIN
PRECIP BAND...IF THERE ENDS UP BEING ONE...STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AFTER 12Z /THIS WOULD BE FROM THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER ERN NEB/. AT THIS POINT...HAVE BEEN SHYING AWAY FROM THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS AND SIDING WITH THE HIRES MODELS...WHICH DO NOT
SHOW A LOT OF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IMPACTING MSP...MORE OF JUST
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIP. BY THE TIME PRECIP GETS
HERE...SFC TEMPS WILL BE BACK ABOVE FREEZING...IF THEY EVER GET
THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE...SO STILL FEEL CONFIDENT IN KEEP PRECIP
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME IN PRETTY QUICK WITH
PRECIP...AND MAY ACTUALLY COME IN BELOW 017 FOR A TIME IN THE
MORNING. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN HEIGHTS BY THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON THE NAMS IDEA OF CIGS
INCREASING TO AROUND 5K FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE
TAF...ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT MEANS CIGS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH RA LIKELY IN AFTN. WINDS E 10KTS.
THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -RA ENDING IN MRNG. WINDS BCMG W 10-15KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS W 15G25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MPG
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
709 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE... 30.70 INCHES... WAS CENTERED NEAR LAKE
WINNIPEG AT MID AFTERNOON. THE HIGH STRETCHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WAS PROVIDING THE FA WITH A DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
OF AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. THE DRY WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL GIVE WAY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE... CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING... DRIVES THROUGH. LOW LEVEL
WAA WAS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY UNDERWAY. THE UPGLIDE/SATURATION AND
ADIABATIC OMEGA WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS TODAY PAINT A PRETTY
BLEAK PICTURE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WHILE THE WRF SOLUTIONS...
ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE 1KM REFLECTIVITY SHOW MORE OF A LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS LATTER IDEA SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN
THE STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORCING.
AT ANY RATE... THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST CENTRAL MN PER THE
ARW/NMM. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE BUFKIT NAM/GFS PROFILE
DATA. THE SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN BY
DAYBREAK AND ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES BY MID MORNING. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST
CENTRAL WI THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE SATURATION AND
THERMAL PROFILE... THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT ICE/SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN. A HUNDREDTH OR TWO ON THE
ICE WITH AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST. SNOW
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WAS A HALF INCH OR LESS... WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN... WHERE LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURE WISE... TRENDED DOWN ON THE LOWS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WITH FEW CLOUDS AND QUITE DRY AIR IN
PLACE EARLY ON. LITTLE CHANGE NOTED ON HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FROM
TUESDAY EVENING THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN WAA PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE E/NE OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL -RA/-DZ OR
-FZRA/-FZDZ MAY DEVELOP IN A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLDS AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERMAL PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST 0.5 KM REMAIN PROBLEMATIC WITH CHC/S OF -FZRA/-FZDZ
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...SNOW CHC/S WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO DRY CONDS IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. ANOTHER
ASPECT IS THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE CHG FROM
TUESDAY AFTN/THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LITTLE MIXING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYERS OCCURS. THUS WITH TEMPS HOLDING NEAR THE FREEZING
MARK ACROSS CENTRAL MN...ANY PRECIPITATION COULD FREEZE ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...AND LESS TRAVELED
ROADS. ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS RAPIDLY MOVING
STORM SYSTEM. THERMAL PROFILES PAST WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH
EMBEDDED TSRA IN FAR SOUTHERN MN DUE TO SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
GENERATE SOME -RA...PERHAPS SOME -SN THURSDAY AFTN/EVENING AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. A BRIEF
COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER WARM PERIOD IS
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MORE STORM WX.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
MAIN CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD IS ALSO THE SOURCE OF MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...THE TIMING OF ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING THE GFS BEING RATHER GUNG-HO WITH
PRECIP...WHILE THE RAP ALONG WITH THE HRRR...HOPWRF...AND OTHER
HIRES MODELS ARE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH BOTH THE GENERATION AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIP. AT THE MOMENT...WE ARE SEEING TWO BANDS OF
PRECIP ON REGIONAL RADAR...ONE FROM NRN IA BACK WNW TO SW NODAK.
THIS IS MAINLY VIRGA...THOUGH HAS THROWN OUT A SPIT OR TWO OF
RAIN...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
SECOND...MORE ROBUST BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS ERN NEB ON THE NOSE OF THE H85 LLJ...AND THIS IS WHAT
WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATOR. THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE
ARWWRF SEEMED TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS BAND...AND TIMING OF THIS
BAND BY THESE MODELS MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH GOING TAFS...SO
DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE TAF FOR PRECIP TIMING. ALL THAT
WAS DONE WAS TO SPEED UP START OF SNOW AT AXN. BY THE AFTERNOON...
FORCING TURNS INTO MORE OF JUST BROAD AND WEAK WAA AND MID LEVEL
FGEN...WHICH LIKELY MEANS RATHER DISORGANIZED BOUTS OF -RA MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS...ENDED PREVAILING PRECIP AT MOST
TERMINALS BY THE AFTERNOON. RAP ALONG WITH THE 18Z NAM HAVE COME
IN A BIT WARMER WITH TEMPS ACROSS SRN MN TONIGHT...SO FZRA
POTENTIAL IS LOOKING QUITE LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PTYPE PROBS
FROM THE 15Z SREF...WHICH HAS EITHER SNOW OR RAIN...WITH FZRA PROB
AT ALL MPX TERMINALS AT 0%. AS FOR CIGS...THEY WILL DROP QUICKLY
TO MVFR WHEN PRECIP MOVES IN. BY THE AFTERNOON...SREF/NAM
INDICATING THAT CIGS MAY BRIEFLY RISE BACK TO VFR ACROSS ERN MN
AND WI...BEFORE EVERYONE HEADS TOWARD IFR TUESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS EARLY AS 10Z...BUT MAIN
PRECIP BAND...IF THERE ENDS UP BEING ONE...STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AFTER 12Z /THIS WOULD BE FROM THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
OVER ERN NEB/. AT THIS POINT...HAVE BEEN SHYING AWAY FROM THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GFS AND SIDING WITH THE HIRES MODELS...WHICH DO NOT
SHOW A LOT OF SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IMPACTING MSP...MORE OF JUST
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIP. BY THE TIME PRECIP GETS
HERE...SFC TEMPS WILL BE BACK ABOVE FREEZING...IF THEY EVER GET
THERE IN THE FIRST PLACE...SO STILL FEEL CONFIDENT IN KEEP PRECIP
EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL COME IN PRETTY QUICK WITH
PRECIP...AND MAY ACTUALLY COME IN BELOW 017 FOR A TIME IN THE
MORNING. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN HEIGHTS BY THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON THE NAMS IDEA OF CIGS
INCREASING TO AROUND 5K FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THE END OF THE
TAF...ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TUESDAY NIGHT MEANS CIGS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH RA LIKELY IN AFTN. WINDS E 10KTS.
THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -RA ENDING IN MRNG. WINDS BCMG W 10-15KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS W 15G25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
CURRENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AT
300 PM THE FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS NEWEST WISCONSIN. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG CAA HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS. AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE BORDERLAND.
MAIN STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR MASS. THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH TRAJECTORIES WOULD FAVOR ANY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES AND SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF DRY AIR LATE TONIGHT...ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE MARGINAL. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
ISOLD ONE INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...ALONG THE GOGEBIC
RANGE...WHERE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE THE LONGEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER AND
TIMING OF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR
LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. HOWEVER...IF SKIES CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL QUITE LOW AS DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES FOR LES LOW. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
TWIN PORTS...THEN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY
THOUGH...WITH 850-700MB RH FIELDS MOSTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
WEAK WAA/FGEN WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH
SHOULD START AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...THEN AS TEMPS WARM
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND
WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS.
EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THAT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT DO SHOW SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...AND
HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. WE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER NAM/GFS
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF PRECIP INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM AIR MOVING IN THAT
WILL SWITCH IT TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER LOW MOVEMENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME COLDER AIR WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR
A MIX OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE. SOME HEAVIER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE
WHICH WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES TO WARM INTO THE
FORTIES ON WED-THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESS. MVFR CEILINGS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS NOT
DONE A PARTICULARLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS. THE RAP WAS
DOING THE BEST JOB AT THIS TIME...AND WE USED IT FOR TIMING. WE
MAY SEE BASES RISE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO LOW VFR HIGH MVFR. WE
DID TRANSITION TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE. THERE ARE MORE MVFR CEILINGS WELL NORTH INTO
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 37 21 36 / 20 10 10 20
INL 14 31 14 34 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 23 37 23 36 / 10 0 0 40
HYR 27 38 22 38 / 30 20 0 40
ASX 32 37 21 39 / 40 30 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
BASED ON CURRENT CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LATEST DLHWRF/HRRR/4KM WRF ALL SUGGEST VERY LIGHT ISOLD PRECIP
ACCOMPANIES THE LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY ADVANCING
INTO THE BORDERLAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A NICE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THERE IS A POTENT SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF WINNIPEG
MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. A WARM FRONT IS EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF SNOW IS AFFECTING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS MOVING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE
BORDERLAND...TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF PRECIPITATION NOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO IS GOING TO MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN AROUND TO NORTH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID
40S...EXPECT THAT WHILE WE STILL HAVE MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE GOING TO SET
UP BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND LINGER
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN EVEN AS PRECIPITATION
SHUTS OFF OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO DROP OFF AFTER CLOUD COVER MOVES SOUTH TO OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND HAVE MINS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT MECHANISM...AND ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY GET INTO
THE 30S THOUGH...AFTER SUCH A COLD START TO THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING AT GENERALLY LIGHT
QPF...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAJOR SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
POSITION OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL...ONE THING REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH. THAT IS THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. THE MAIN PUSH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY THU...LEAVING US WITH MID RANGE POPS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND PCPN. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE ARE BACK TO
AN UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW SCENARIO...WITH SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
30S AT TIMES IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESS. MVFR CEILINGS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS NOT
DONE A PARTICULARLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS. THE RAP WAS
DOING THE BEST JOB AT THIS TIME...AND WE USED IT FOR TIMING. WE
MAY SEE BASES RISE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO LOW VFR HIGH MVFR. WE
DID TRANSITION TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE. THERE ARE MORE MVFR CEILINGS WELL NORTH INTO
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 26 36 21 / 10 20 0 10
INL 40 13 32 13 / 20 10 0 0
BRD 49 24 37 23 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 50 26 39 22 / 10 20 10 0
ASX 49 31 37 21 / 10 50 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CDT MONDAY
FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
724 PM EDT MON OCT 28 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED IN THE DAYS AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWED
WITH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM MONDAY...THE WEAKENING S/W TROF
ALOFT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THIS EVENING...WITH VARIOUS MODELS IN AGREEMENT.
HAVE SCALED BACK POPS TO NO CHANCE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH
THE BEST FORCING TO OCCUR OVER ADJACENT ATL WATERS EARLY THIS
EVENING B4 SLIDING OFFSHORE. LATEST IR...THE 11-3.9 MICRON
IMAGERY...HAS ILLUSTRATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NC AND CENTRAL SC. THIS UPSTREAM CLEARING WILL CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS THE ILM CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT...A DOWNSLOPE TRAJECTORY...MOISTURE WILL LIKELY FURTHER
SCOUR OUT LEAVING A MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT.
AT THIS POINT...STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS
ADVERTISED BY THE NAM MOS...ALTHOUGH THE 18Z GFS MOS HAS INCREASED
ITS LOWS FROM ITS PREVIOUS 12Z ISSUANCE. HAVE INCREASED THE
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG COVERAGE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LESSER AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS BEING FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION..............................................
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CAUSED BY A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE...AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW HAS BEEN DAMPENING ALL DAY...A STILL
EASILY-RECOGNIZED CENTER IS MOVING ACROSS SC...AND WILL DRIFT EAST
NEARLY OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...BUT THIS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS IT
SHUTTING OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVE...BUT QPF WILL BE GENERALLY
ZERO...0.01-0.02 AT BEST. THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP BACK ACROSS
GEORGIA IS MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN THANKS TO STEEPENED LAPSE RATES
BENEATH THE -17C COLD POOL. AS THIS MOVES EAST AND ABOVE THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...IT HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING (THANKS ALSO IN
PART TO THE UPPER LOW FILLING)...AND THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIP AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD THIS EVE. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
AGREES WITH THIS...NEITHER THE HRRR OR WRF SUGGEST ANY PRECIP ACROSS
THE CWA TONIGHT...SO HAVE CUT BACK POP TO SILENT AFTER DARK.
WITH THE LACK OF SUNSHINE /DRYING/ TODAY...AND A MOISTENED
COLUMN...FOG IS A POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION
OF PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA AS BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT GOOD
SURFACE SATURATION AND LOW-LEVEL HYDROLAPSE RATES...AND FORECAST
LOWS APPROACH CROSSOVER TEMPS. THE INHIBITING FACTOR TO WIDESPREAD
FOG WILL BE CONTINUED MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL INHIBIT...AT
LEAST PARTIALLY...RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SAME CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP MINS FROM FALLING TOO LOW...AND HAVE LEANED PRIMARILY ON THE
WARMER LAV NUMBERS SINCE THE MET/MAV CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL. EXPECT
LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THE HEADLINE WEATHER STORY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF A LATE OCTOBER WARMING TREND WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 4-9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS
WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMER. DAYBREAK TUESDAY A SHORT-WAVE
WILL BE EXITING THE COAST...AND IN IT`S WAKE AMPLIFICATION OF
HEIGHTS ALOFT OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE BULGES INTO THE CAROLINAS
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF HEIGHT RISES WILL
BOLSTER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ALLOWING A SURFACE ANTI-CYCLONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BUILD SE INTO CAROLINAS BEFORE SLIPPING
OFFSHORE EARLY ON THURSDAY.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TOO WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SEASON BUT ONLY BY SEVERAL DEGREES SINCE OVERNIGHT RADIATION
COOLING WILL BE DECENT TO VERY GOOD...ALLOWING HEAT ESCAPE AND
SUBSEQUENT NIGHT-TIME COOLING AND A SOLID EARLY MORNING INVERSION
EACH DAY. BOUTS OF FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION INTO THE ZONES SINCE OCCASIONAL CLOUDS
COULD INHIBIT FORMATION. DRY MID-LEVEL AIR DUE TO THE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY MENTIONABLE POP VALUES THIS PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY HIGHS TO END UP JUST SHY OF 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE
EAST COAST. SIMILARLY A VERY MID THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECTED AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASED AND VEERED BY THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. FRIDAY STILL FINDS US IN A VERY WARM AIRMASS BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS A BIT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW IMPLIES THAT PRECIP SHOULD BE HARD-PRESSED TO OCCUR MUCH
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ITSELF. BEST RAIN CHANCES THUS COME WITH
ACTUAL FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT...INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST.
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT SATURDAY BY THE DEEPER LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTION
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE TOUGH AXIS TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERY LARGE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ENSUING COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO SIMPLY
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO THEIR SEASONABLE NORMS ON SUNDAY AND
ROUGHLY A CATEGORY LOWER BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLY CREATING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS OF
MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED AREAS OF -DZ HAS TAPERED OFF AS SEEN FROM LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY...AS VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUD DECK. POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY CREATE SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF MVFR.
AFTER DAYBREAK...LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BECOMING ESE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AOB 8 KTS...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY EVENING WITH SCT CLOUDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 PM MONDAY...WEAK SFC PG AND UNORGANIZED PRESSURE PATTERN
THIS EVENING WILL RESULT WITH A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION LESS THAN
10 KTS THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUE...STRONG
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FA WATERS. LOOK FOR A MORE DOMINANT WIND DIRECTION...
FROM THE NW-N TO OCCUR...WITH SPEEDS AT AROUND 10 KT. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE INPUT FROM ANY LOCALLY PRODUCED WIND
DRIVEN WAVES. THE 1 TO 1.5 FOOT ESE GROUND SWELL AT 8 TO 9 SECOND
PERIODS WILL DOMINATE THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION............................................
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DIFFUSE CENTER ALIGNED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST...AS IT
GETS PUSHED AWAY BY A MUCH STRONGER HIGH /1040MB CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CANADA/. THIS WILL HAPPEN SLOWLY TONIGHT...THUS THE
CURRENT WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ONLY GRADUALLY TIGHTENING TOWARDS DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...BEFORE
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPS...DRIVING WINDS UP TO AROUND 10
KTS BY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW- AMPLITUDE...1-2
FT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED 3 FTER IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE 20NM
BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY FLAGS EXPECTED ON
THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WATERS WILL BECOME A
BIT BUMPY AS NE WINDS INCREASE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...BECOMING SITUATED MORE OVERHEAD WITH EASING
WIND WEDNESDAY. 2-3 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED BUT UP TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND AROUND NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE FRYING PAN
SHOALS/BAR. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD OUR
COAST. NO TSTMS ON THE 0-20NM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH A
FEW TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER THE GULF STREAM EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS
WILL BE MADE UP OF 2 FT ESE WAVES EVERY 8-10 SECONDS MIXED WITH
1-2 FT E WAVES IN 5-6 SECOND INTERVALS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
ALMOST THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY AS LARGE
HIGH SITS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT PRESSES EAST
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. BUILDING SEAS WILL BE COMPRISED OF
AN 11 SEC SE SWELL AND A LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME BUILDING WIND WAVE
THAT COULD EVENTUALLY YIELD ADVISORY-LEVEL SEAS. AS THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
BE FURTHER TIGHTENING AND THE WIND FORECAST MAY RISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES. A WELL
PRONOUNCED VEER ASSOCIATED WITH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE
TURNS THE WINDS FROM COAST-PARALLEL TO ALMOST PERPENDICULAR
OFFSHORE. THIS OPENS UP A NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE GRADIENT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS AS THE NEAR SHORE SEAS DIMINISH QUICKLY FROM LANDMASS
SHADOWING. FURTHER FROM SHORE SEAS WILL EASE WITH LESS RAPIDITY
BUT EASE NONETHELESS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...DCH/JDW
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS STILL HINTING AT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW PA LATER THIS AM SO WILL LEAVE A PRECIP MENTION
IN.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE DAY WITH BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY
SCATTERED SKIES. TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START THIS MORNING
BUT STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A SHOT AT GETTING TO 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE TODAY
EAST OF KCLE SO A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NW PA AND WOULD
BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN. AS IT STANDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SMALL AREA
OF CHANCE POPS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL ENJOY A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS...
INCLUDING THE SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE AND PERHAPS NW PA. WILL GO WITH A SMALL PRECIP MENTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN NW PA BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WON`T GET AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE PLAINS LOW.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS WEDNESDAY
TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN TUESDAY EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERN
STREAM JET ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM
FOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS
IS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING MANY
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY THURSDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE AMPLE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ALSO RAISED LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS
THE DRY-SLOT WRAPS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK NEAR 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 13Z. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW VFR AT YNG/CAK WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE
BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10 KNOTS TODAY
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY 00Z. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA. NON-
VFR ON WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE WEST OF VERMILION HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE WAVES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND TO DROP OFF SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME ON THE ADVISORY
TO 10 AM. WE WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE INTO MONDAY MORNING SO EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF WILLOWICK.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS STILL HINTING AT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW PA LATER THIS AM SO WILL LEAVE A PRECIP MENTION
IN.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE DAY WITH BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY
SCATTERED SKIES. TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START THIS MORNING
BUT STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A SHOT AT GETTING TO 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE TODAY
EAST OF KCLE SO A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NW PA AND WOULD
BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN. AS IT STANDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SMALL AREA
OF CHANCE POPS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL ENJOY A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS...
INCLUDING THE SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE AND PERHAPS NW PA. WILL GO WITH A SMALL PRECIP MENTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN NW PA BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WON`T GET AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE PLAINS LOW.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS WEDNESDAY
TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN TUESDAY EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERN
STREAM JET ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM
FOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS
IS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING MANY
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY THURSDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE AMPLE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ALSO RAISED LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS
THE DRY-SLOT WRAPS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI. THE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST WITH SKIES
STARTING OFF AS MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AT
ERI/YNG WHERE VFR CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A
CLOUD DECK NEAR 6000 FEET IS ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH A BKN STRATOCU
DECK RETURNING TO MOST AREAS WITH DIURNAL HEATING ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA. NON-
VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE WEST OF VERMILION HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE WAVES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND TO DROP OFF SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME ON THE ADVISORY
TO 10 AM. WE WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE INTO MONDAY MORNING SO EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF WILLOWICK.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
952 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT PER
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.
HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL RUNS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05
PLATE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...STEADY STATE BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 3KFT-5KFT RANGE. A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
THE BNA AREA TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA WILL BE INCLUDED AFT 05Z
FOR CSV. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LESSEN AFT 12Z BUT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION UPDATE...
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOSEST SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BACK ACROSS AR AND INTO NRN MS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC FORCING IS INDICATED.
FOR THE FCST...LITTLE CHANGE IF ANY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WAS
THINKING ABOUT PERHAPS LOWERING MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
BUT...18Z SFC TEMP PROGS CLEARLY SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST HIGHS.
WILL THEREFORE MAKE NO CHANGES FOR NOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AND SPRINKLES NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER IT. HRRR IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION...EXPECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CIGS NR 5K FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE PATCHES OF
MVFR IN BR, WHERE CLOUDS BREAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE
NWS NASHVILLE TN
859 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION UPDATE...
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOSEST SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BACK ACROSS AR AND INTO NRN MS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC FORCING IS INDICATED.
FOR THE FCST...LITTLE CHANGE IF ANY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WAS
THINKING ABOUT PERHAPS LOWERING MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
BUT...18Z SFC TEMP PROGS CLEARLY SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST HIGHS.
WILL THEREFORE MAKE NO CHANGES FOR NOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AND SPRINKLES NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER IT. HRRR IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION...EXPECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CIGS NR 5K FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE PATCHES OF
MVFR IN BR, WHERE CLOUDS BREAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY...AT 9PM...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS DIGGING SSE-WARD TOWARDS
THE ARKLATEX BORDER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO AREA. THESE FEATURES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT
REGION. SOME SINKING MOTION LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING ANY SHOWERS FROM REACHING OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM NOW UNTIL 12Z. HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AROUND THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS IN WEST TENNESSEE AS DENSE CLOUD
COVER WILL PREVENT ANY RAPID COOLING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES...AS OF 9PM...ARE RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO THE WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.
AC3
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SAINT LOUIS
AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND INTO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
TEXARKANA...PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE CHALLENGE IN THIS
FORECAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE MID SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INCLUDING THE 3KM HRRR INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE.
NONETHELESS...THINK BEST CHANCES RAIN /ISOLATED-SCATTERED
COVERAGE/ WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE AROUND FL050 WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT... AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST AR. MOIST LOW LEVELS WERE EVIDENT ON
THE 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL AR...WITH AN LIFR CIG
REPORTED AT LIT. SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF MEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
628 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A MODERATE S TO SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN THE
EARLY ONSET OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
FOG FORMATION...WITH PATCHY VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1 MILE IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE DELAYED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z HIRES-ARW AND THE 21Z RUC13 IN
REGARDS TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE SLOWER RUC13 AND LATEST LAMP MOS GUIDANCE.
I-35 TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL FORM BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z...LOWERING
TO IFR BY 11Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z...VFR BY 17Z. SFC WINDS
OVERNIGHT SE AT 5 TO 8 KTS...SE 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KDRT TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS FORM AROUND 07Z LOWERING TO IFR BY 10Z.
CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 16Z...VFR BY 20Z. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT SE
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...AROUND 15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
HUMID AND CLOUDY NIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN
TOO TIGHT TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND RESULT IN
ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON.
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDY MUGGY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING MOSTLY NEAR 70.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE/TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DIG INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FROPA. MODELS ARE PROJECTING PW VALUES TO SURGE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY (NORMAL PWS FOR
LATE OCTOBER ARE GENERALLY 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES). GIVEN OUR POSITION
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE
IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ONE TO THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
(LOW 60S HILL COUNTRY) BY 9 PM. THE DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AND FLATTEN-OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA AND
RESULT IN CHILLY MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO A RAPID
WARMING TREND OF OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 84 70 82 71 / 10 10 30 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 84 70 80 71 / 10 10 30 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 71 82 70 / - 10 30 50 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 81 67 78 66 / 10 10 30 70 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 83 71 83 65 / - 20 30 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 68 81 68 / 10 10 30 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 73 85 70 / - 10 30 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 70 81 70 / - 10 30 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 87 73 83 74 / 10 10 20 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 86 73 83 71 / - 10 30 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 85 73 / - 10 30 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1115 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DID PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HEAD INTO A REGION WITH NO
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THEREFORE...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LOW AND
UPPER JET SHIFT FARTHER EAST. MADE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESUME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
17Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVING INTO THE HOUSTON AREA WL SKIRT THE VCT AREA BY 14Z. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WL BE POSSIBLE AT VCT.
ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS QUICKLY NEWD. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS WL ONCE BEGIN DEVELOPING AS A MOIST FLOW PERSISTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THIS TREND WL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...WL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST THROUGH 14Z. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 87 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
17Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVING INTO THE HOUSTON AREA WL SKIRT THE VCT AREA BY 14Z. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WL BE POSSIBLE AT VCT.
ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS QUICKLY NEWD. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS WL ONCE BEGIN DEVELOPING AS A MOIST FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THIS TREND WL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...WL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST THROUGH 14Z. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 88 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE
OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
441 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THIS TREND WL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...WL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST THROUGH 14Z. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 88 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE
OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
&&
.MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 88 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT CIGS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 3K FEET. THEN GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SCT TO BKN DECK BEGINNING TO THIN OUT THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INLAND CIGS AROUND 6000...WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10000 AT KBRO. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASE TO
NEAR CALM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURN TO
10 TO 12 KNOTS BEFORE NOON TOMORROW...WHILE SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN
CIGS AT 4000 TO 5000 REDEVELOP BY NOON AND SPREAD INLAND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL HELP PUSH THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING FROM
THE SOUTH INCREASING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW THE
SLOW INCREASE OF PWATS REACHING 1.32 INCHES THIS MORNING. AS THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR RAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND WITH THE E/SE FLOW...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAIN VERY
LOW WITH A SILENT 10 ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT REMAIN BRIEF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WARMER TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT
REACHING THE 70S ALONG THE RIVER AND THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN
RANCHLAND.
INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER THAN
TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT THE 1000-500 MB RH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 40 PERCENT LEVEL BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER VALLEY NEARLY REACHING
THE 90 DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL AND FORECAST
THINKING FOR THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE A REHASH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WITH STILL A WIDE SPREAD
BETWEEN TIMING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
MAIN ELEMENTS OF CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING SE-S WIND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WINDS TUES/WED. ALSO...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
EVENTUALLY VEERS A BIT WEST OF SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. AS MENTIONED LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS.
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTH TEXAS TO LIE ON THE WESTERN END OF WARM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
CAMP WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO SINK MORE SOUTH
THEN KICK EAST INITIALLY. THE CLOSE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THURSDAY LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH
OF TEXAS. THE FLOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL TO EVEN SOUTHWEST. THIS IS NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR FRONT PASSAGES. THE LATEST GFS MOS TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF ONLY SHOW A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FRONT WHICH IS NOT EVEN
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NOVEMBER. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND SOME
WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. GFS IS TRENDING A BIT STRONG
NEARING 30 MPH BETWEEN HWY 69E/69C BUT WILL TREND IN THE BREEZY
/15-25MPH/ RANGE AND HOLD OFF ON THE WINDY /20-30/UNTIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. 925-850MB WINDS JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL DECENT IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES SAME THINKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT ANOMALIES TO REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
POST TROUGH/FRONT AS MENTIONED ONLY A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IS
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. ONE ELEMENT OF NOTE IS THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. PWATS ARE ADVERTISED TO JUMP ABOVE THE 1.5 THRESHOLD
TUESDAY AND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE IN
FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT TOO MUCH WIND AND NOT THE BEST DIRECTION
FOR AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. QUESTION ARISES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHER END
CHANCE POPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOWER END WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. DUE TO THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SURF WATERS MOVES CLOSE TO THE DUNES. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
LOWERING INTO SUNDAY. SINCE TIDES HAVE BEEN 1FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED...WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WATERS TO PUSH UP
TO THE DUNE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING BUT
WILL FORCE FOR SOME BEACH ACCESS TO BE CLOSE. THERE IS A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK DUE TO THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
MONDAY BECOMING STRONG TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND POSSIBLY FOR AN EXTENDED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SCA/S WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAYTIME AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONGER SCA
CRITERIA WINDS COULD LINGER OVER THE LAGUNA WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1116 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING ITS WAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. CLL WILL BE
IMPACTED FIRST WILL FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CELL TIMED TO COME NEAR THE
AIRFIELD AROUND 06Z. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW WITH
MCS NOW DROPPING THROUGH NE TEXAS. TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE...GENERALLY MOVING UP THE TIMING BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT EACH
TAF SITE...WITH A 2 OR 3 HOUR DURATION OF THUNDER. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AN MCS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE SOUTH SLOWLY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT IN FRONT OF
THE MCS HAVE BEEN PUSHING EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH THE CWA. STILL COULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THESE CELLS LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR AND
TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES BY 6Z OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THE
REMNANTS OF THE MCS WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST. MADE TWEAKS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CLOUD COVER ALSO APPEARS THAT
IT WILL HANG AROUND TOMORROW. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS A TAD
FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
EAST WEST LINE OF STORMS NOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS IS PROGGED BY
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE LINE COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. AS FAR AS TIMING EXPECTING IT TO REACH CLL AND UTS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...CXO CLOSER TO 10Z...IAH AROUND 12Z...AND HOU
AND SGR 13-14Z. SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THIS
BAND. NOT SURE ABOUT THE IMPACTS FOR LBX AND GLS...AS LINE WILL BE
PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER VORT THAT IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
THIS LINE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER. AFTER LINE PASSES
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VARIABLE WINDS...THEN SW TO S WINDS
SHOULD BECOME REESTABLISHED. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEEING ISO/WIDELY SCT DEVELOPMENT OVER SC TX THIS AFTN WITH DEEP-
ENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING...ALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/
MOVEMENT OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. POPS SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE
W/NW BY SUN AFTN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL BRIEF AS ONSHORE
WINDS QUICKLY RECOVER. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL
MAKE FOR WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SE TX DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...THROUGH THURS. WHILE THE BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE CON-
FINED TO JUST AHEAD OF/WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THURS (AFTN OR NIGHT DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE)...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ISO/WIDELY SCT WAA TYPE SHRA FOR THE COASTAL/NEAR COAST-
AL LOCATIONS BY LATE TUES NIGHT/EARLY WEDS MORNING. FAVOURING THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT (AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST OF LATE). WILL BE KEEP-
ING A CLOSE EYE ON LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE WITH TRENDS
OF LESS LIFT/WEAKER CAA WITH/BEHIND THIS FROPA. 41
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK KEEPING SEAS AT LOW/MODERATE LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE
PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
IN OFFSHORE AREAS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT AND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH OFF THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 76 63 84 65 / 60 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 77 64 84 65 / 50 60 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 78 69 82 71 / 20 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
932 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
00Z DVN SOUNDING REFLECTING WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING AROUND 925 MB
THROUGH 850 MB OVER DRY...COOL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW 925 MB.
NARROW SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF WEAK RADAR RETURNS ON AREA
RADARS FROM NE IOWA TO SW MN IN REGION OF 850 MB
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH LATEST 00Z NAM WEAKENS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST RETURNS BETWEEN 30 DBZ AND 35 DBZ HAVE ONLY
PRODUCED TRACE AMOUNTS/SEE KALO 0054Z OB/ WHICH ARE PROBABLY
SPRINKLES WITH CEILING HEIGHTS OF 9K FT TO 11K FT. 00Z NAM AND HI-
RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS KEEP AREA DRY THROUGH 12Z TUE...THOUGH
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK TO DEVELOP A SMALL BAND OF LAKE-
EFFECT SHRA THAT WOULD AFFECT NRN OZAUKEE AND EASTERN SHEBOYGAN
COUNTIES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT STILL SUB-15 PCT... POPS OVER THE FAR NE AND
IN THE NW WHERE SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
WILL WATCH CIG HEIGHTS CAREFULLY UP TO ISSUANCE TIME...BUT LATEST
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MVFR DECK SETTLES OVER REGION WITH
925-850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER COOL EASTERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MID- MORNING TUESDAY. SOME SURFACE
WARMING AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST WILL AID IN LIFTING THE CIGS TO
VFR LEVELS AS LIFT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES NORTHEAST. WILL
AWAIT REST OF 00Z DATA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RELATIVELY
DRY SURFACE FLOW WILL HOLD OFF WIDESPREAD PCPN FROM MOVING INTO
TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING BELOW CRITERIA AT SHORELINE OB SITES SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN N-NE FETCH...WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE NORTHERN ZONE UNTIL 06Z UNTIL WAVES
SUBSIDE. SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE UNTIL WINDS VEER
TO THE EAST REDUCING THE FETCH SUFFICIENTLY FOR WAVES TO FALL
BELOW CRITERIA. NO CHANGE TO END TIME IN THE SOUTH WITH THIS NSH ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013/
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT.
850 MILLIBAR WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES INTO PORTIONS OF SC WI
BETWEEN 6-12Z SO MID/HIGH CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS....ALREADY SEEING THE SIGNS ACRS SW MN AND NW IA.
MEANWHILE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN WESTWARD
INTO NE IA/SE MN NOT IN A HURRY TO GO ANYWHERE. LOW LEVEL RH
PROGS/MOS AND SREF CIG PROBS MAINTAIN THIS CORRIDOR ACROSS SRN WI.
SO NOT A BIG DROP OFF IN TEMPS DUE TO THE INSULATING BLANKET FOR MOST
OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SOME ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS NOTED. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HAVE A
SAY BUT BEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND SOME MOISTURE SEEMS FOCUSED IN
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN CWA. EVEN THE USUALLY MORE ROBUST
GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF CWA WIDE...SO TRYING TO TRIM POPS BACK A
BIT. WHILE 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO PROGRESSIVELY MODERATE EXPECTING
AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING AS HIGH AS THEY
COULD GIVEN THOSE. NEVERTHELESS A MILDER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SEEMS REASONABLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF WISCONSIN UNTIL
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAIN H8
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE CWA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE RATHER PERSISTENT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...IT WILL BE BATTLING A DRY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...BUT SHOULD TURN TO MORE VIRGA
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO KICK OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...RAIN WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WE COULD EVEN HEAR SOME THUNDER...BUT NOTHING SEVERE.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
NO MAJOR CHANGES HERE. JUST UPPED POPS DUE TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND WITH EACH
OTHER. MAIN SURGE OF MOISTURE AND FORCING COMES IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EVERYONE SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SOME OF IT COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
REACHING THE EASTERN CWA BY EARLY EVENING. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN
SHOWING SOME SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT THAT
KEPT PRECIP GOING WELL INTO THURSDAY EVENING. IT DROPPED THAT
SCENARIO ON LAST NIGHTS RUN. BUT IT IS BACK ON THE 12Z RUN. THE
GEM IS CONTINUING TO SHOW IT AS WELL. THE GFS AND THE EXTRAPOLATED
NAM DON/T REALLY HAVE THIS. OF COURSE THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON THOSE LITTLE TRICK-OR-TREATERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IT/S A TIMING ISSUE AND WE/LL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT TO SEE
HOW THIS WORKS OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER THROUGH
THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. PROBABLY WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
THE MAIN LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...BUT WE
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES IN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WITH A SECONDARY TROF MOVING THROUGH. THEN DRY WEATHER MOVES IN
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP/LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND
MOS ALL SUPPORT KEEPING THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS MOSTLY MVFR THOUGH A FEW VFR POCKETS HERE
AND THERE. SQUEEZE PLAY IS ON BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKES HEADING INTO TUESDAY SO
FLOW WILL TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO MORE OF A SOUTHEAST FLOW...BUT THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FLOW AND KEEP PRECIP MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL WI.
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB ON HANDLING THE DEEPER DRY
AIR FEED INTO SRN WI.
MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM
TUESDAY FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM TUESDAY FROM NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO
WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS. THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN
TNT BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO POSE A DANGER TO SMALL CRAFT TNT
INTO TUE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DAVIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
944 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
VISIBILITIES IN FOG HAVE IMPROVED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AS OF 0330Z. THE FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL
AS A CLOUD BAND MOVING OVER THE AREA HAVE HELPED TO IMPROVE
THE VISIBILITIES. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND LIFTED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT EHS SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE. TOUGH CALL...
BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS TRYING TO TURN MORE SOUTH AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON BELIEVE VISIBILIITES SHOULD BE GREATER THAN EARLIER...BUT
STILL MAY DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
INTENSITY HAS LET UP SOME.ALSO IN SOME PLACES...LIKE KCYS...THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE
700 TO 600 MB LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND ENABLE MORE PLACES TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW.
ROADS ARE STILL SLICK IN MANY PLACES EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE DUE
TO THE RECENT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING
TIL 18Z. RECENT UPDATE AVAILABLE WHICH INCLUDES THE SMALLER AREA
FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
FOGGY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT 00Z...THE
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA WAS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
EVEN FREEZING RAIN...AT KBFF AND KTOR. MEANWHILE...OVER NORTHERN
SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES...THE PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME WAS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. FROM AREA PROFILES AND RECEIVED
00Z RAOBS...COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB DURING
THE DAY. THAT SLOW TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF TONIGHT...
EVEN THOUGH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL IS TRYING TO
SPREAD NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO MORE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPSLOPE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ALSO SPREAD OVER
THE WEST PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS SEVERAL BAROCLINIC BANDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THAT AREA FROM AHEAD OF THE STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...INCLUDING
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
ROTATING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME ENERGY BEING SPUN OFF THE LOW WHICH IS EJECTING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. LOOKS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE OUT THAT WAY AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
RECENTLY OVER NEVADA AND EARLIER IN UTAH FROM THAT ENERGY MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR DENVER...OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
UTAH...NORTH THROUGH IDAHO AND UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. VERY
ESTABLISHED NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...ALL THE
WAY TO RAWLINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM
SOUTH OF DENVER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS NORTHEAST FLOW AND DENSE
STRATUS...STILL ONLY 26 HERE AT CHEYENNE...28 AT DOUGLAS AND LOW
30S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. DO NOT
THINK THAT WILL CHANGE ANY AS THE RUC SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING. WELL ESTABLISHED FREEZING DRIZZLE PROFILES PERSIST
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY GOING AS SCHEDULED. COULD GET PRETTY NASTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF BLACK ICE ACROSS OUR CWA EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
STRATUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT THE
DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD EASE AS TEMPERATURE RISE.
STILL...A COOL DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
40S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRATUS.
FINALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
LOW. GFS PAINTING A .6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BACK TO CHEYENNE. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 0.4
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY EXTENDING UP INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...ONLY A LITTLE LIGHTER ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. USING NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS ALL SNOW WHILE
THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH WARMER SCENARIO. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
TRY TO NAIL DOWN A GOOD LOCATION FOR THE BANDING PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WOULD THINK WE WOULD NEED AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OUT FOR THE AREA ONCE THE AREA HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED...MAYBE EVEN A SHORT FUSED WARNING IF THE GFS QPF
FORECAST COMES TRUE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW DECENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC GAP WIND CASE WITH 700MB WINDS
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY WINDY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
TOO MUCH THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS
AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKYS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ADDITION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES...ONLY INCREASED POP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND FOG
WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
THROUGH TUESDAY AND RIME ICING WILL BE A CONCERN OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE CWA DURING THAT TIME. SNOW WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z
OVER ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES. THEREFORE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW EXITS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101-102-
106>108-117>119.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ116.
NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-
096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
633 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
FOGGY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER AND
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AT 00Z...THE
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THAT AREA WAS FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
EVEN FREEZING RAIN...AT KBFF AND KTOR. MEANWHILE...OVER NORTHERN
SIOUX AND DAWES COUNTIES...THE PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME WAS
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. FROM AREA PROFILES AND RECEIVED
00Z RAOBS...COOLING HAS TAKEN PLACE BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB DURING
THE DAY. THAT SLOW TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF TONIGHT...
EVEN THOUGH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THAT LEVEL IS TRYING TO
SPREAD NORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM. THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD MIX WITH AND PERHAPS CHANGE TO MORE LIGHT SNOW
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPSLOPE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL TURN TO MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER AND EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD ALSO SPREAD OVER
THE WEST PART OF THE CWA TONIGHT AS SEVERAL BAROCLINIC BANDS ARE
SPREADING INTO THAT AREA FROM AHEAD OF THE STORM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...INCLUDING
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE HEAVY SNOW EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CURRENTLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A CLOSED LOW
ROTATING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. IR IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME ENERGY BEING SPUN OFF THE LOW WHICH IS EJECTING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO ATTM. LOOKS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE OUT THAT WAY AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
RECENTLY OVER NEVADA AND EARLIER IN UTAH FROM THAT ENERGY MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR DENVER...OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
UTAH...NORTH THROUGH IDAHO AND UP INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. VERY
ESTABLISHED NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...ALL THE
WAY TO RAWLINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS FROM
SOUTH OF DENVER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS NORTHEAST FLOW AND DENSE
STRATUS...STILL ONLY 26 HERE AT CHEYENNE...28 AT DOUGLAS AND LOW
30S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT SO FAR...NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE. DO NOT
THINK THAT WILL CHANGE ANY AS THE RUC SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PERSISTING. WELL ESTABLISHED FREEZING DRIZZLE PROFILES PERSIST
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS WELL. SO WILL KEEP THE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ADVISORY GOING AS SCHEDULED. COULD GET PRETTY NASTY EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AFTER SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE QUITE A BIT OF BLACK ICE ACROSS OUR CWA EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. BE CAREFUL OUT THERE IF YOU ARE TRAVELING
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
BY MID TUESDAY MORNING...UPPER LOW FORECAST TO TRACK INTO WESTERN
WYOMING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
STRATUS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT THE
DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD EASE AS TEMPERATURE RISE.
STILL...A COOL DAY IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
40S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TO LOW 30S OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. DID SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STRATUS.
FINALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE EJECTING
LOW. GFS PAINTING A .6 INCH QPF BULLSEYE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BACK TO CHEYENNE. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOWING AROUND 0.4
INCHES OVER LARAMIE COUNTY EXTENDING UP INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...ONLY A LITTLE LIGHTER ON PRECIP AMOUNTS. USING NAM
TEMPERATURE PROFILES...THIS PRECIP COULD FALL AS ALL SNOW WHILE
THE GFS SHOWING A MUCH WARMER SCENARIO. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
TRY TO NAIL DOWN A GOOD LOCATION FOR THE BANDING PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WOULD THINK WE WOULD NEED AT LEAST A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY OUT FOR THE AREA ONCE THE AREA HAS BEEN
IDENTIFIED...MAYBE EVEN A SHORT FUSED WARNING IF THE GFS QPF
FORECAST COMES TRUE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SHOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW DECENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EMBEDDED IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LATER THIS WEEK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC GAP WIND CASE WITH 700MB WINDS
APPROACHING 50 KNOTS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. LOOKS LIKE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE WIND PRONE AREAS MAY RECEIVE GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE PRETTY WINDY ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH WESTERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH.
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE
TOO MUCH THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S TO LOW
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ALL MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BACKING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FLATTENS
AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE PAC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKYS BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH COLDER
AIR TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE ADDITION OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DUE TO TIMING
DIFFERENCES...ONLY INCREASED POP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WYOMING ON MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 633 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND FOG
WILL CONTINUE OVER AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SOME DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH TUESDAY
AND RIME ICING WILL BE A CONCERN OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA
DURING THAT TIME. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING...THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW. SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS THROUGH 06Z
OVER PARTS OF ALBANY AND CARBON COUNTIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE AREA AS WELL AS COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITIES. THEREFORE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW EXITS EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101-102-
106>108-117>119.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ101-106-107-
117>119.
NE...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TUESDAY FOR NEZ002-003-095-
096.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WEILAND
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
UPDATED TO FORECAST TO REFLECT THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND
HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND WRF. DELAYED THE
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WITH A RAMP UP OF POPS BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEFORE THAT...JUST
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE PEAKS. REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR THIS EVENING...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO KANSAS...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND
FORCING OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
LOW STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS VERY
SHALLOW WITH PATCHY FOG...AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE...AND CAUTION IS ADVISED TOWARD MORNING FOR
PATCHY BLACK ICE. ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO SHALLOW FOR
DRIZZLE. DELAYED WARMING ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FOR
TOMORROW MORNING. PUEBLO MAY BE IN THE 30S TO 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY UNTIL MIXING TAKES OVER BY MID AFTERNOON. MOZLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
COOL FRONT HAS SLIPPED DOWN TO THE CO/NM BORDER WITH THE BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE STATE LINE. NE COLO WAS SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
THESE CLOUDS WERE JUST MAKING IT INTO EXTREME N AND NE EL PASO COUNTY.
A COUPLE OF WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT LINES WERE NOTED OVER S EL PASO
AND N PUEBLO COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH WIND
SHIFT LINES (NE WINDS VS SE WINDS).
ELSEWHERE...A STRONG UPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER NEVADA AND WAS MOVING
SLOWLY EAST. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS WAS NOTED IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM PER WATER VAP IMGY.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
FIRST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDER. SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW TSRA
BREAKING OUT ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR THIS
REASON KEPT VERY SLIGHT POPS ALONG THE BORDER FOR THIS EVENING. I AM
HIGHLY CONFIDENT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR...BUT DO NOT KNOW WHICH SIDE
OF THE BORDER IT WILL INITIATE ON. SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH A
5% CHANCE OF SVR (HAIL).
2ND CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS/FOG TONIGHT. VERY CONFIDENT LOW CLOUDS WILL
BE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO
HIGH ON HOW FAR WEST THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT BACK TOWARDS THE
MTNS. LATEST HRRR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE MOVING THE CLOUDS
ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MTNS. CONCEPTUALLY...THIS LOOKS REALISTIC
AND WILL LIKELY ADD MORE CLOUDS INTO THE NDFD.
OVER THE CONTDVD...MSTR WILL SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THE SAN JUANS...WITH INSIGNIFICANT
ACCUMS.
SOME FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER EL PASO COUNTY.
TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
INTENSIFY. SFC BOUNDARY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER WILL LIKELY PUSH
NORTH TOMORROW...BUT HOW FAR N IS THE QUESTION. ATTM...I HAVE THE
BOUNDARY RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM KCOS DOWN TO KSPD BY MID AFTERNOON
TOMORROW. LIKEWISE...GUSTY SW WINDS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE S TIER
FOR THE FCST AREA...AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX OUT ACROSS EL PASO SO
COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WARM WINDS THIS LOCATION BY MID DAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE KPUB AREA WILL NOT MIX OUT TOMORROW WHILE EL PASO COUNTY
DOES MIX OUT. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW AT KCOS MAY BE WARMER THAN KPUB.
IF THIS VERIFIES...THEN CURRENT FCST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY
LATER SHIFTS.
SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP OVER THE MTNS ALONG THE
CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 10KFT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IT WILL LIKELY BE WINDY ANY WHERE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO
25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE...AND 40 TO 45 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TRRN.
/HODANISH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS A UPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE CWFA
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. A RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS
THEN PROJECTED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.
RECENT LONGER RANGE COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DOUBLE-BARRELED CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY
LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHERN NEVADA
RESPECTIVELY AT 06Z WEDNESDAY WILL ROTATE INTO AN EASTERN
WYOMING/SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO LOCATION BY 00Z THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY 18Z THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING(I.E. PORTIONS OF PUBLIC ZONES 58/59/60 AND POSSIBLY 66/68
AND 82).
IN ADDITION...EVEN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES AS WELL AS POSSIBLY THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARILY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF
PUBLIC ZONES 58/59/60 AND POSSIBLY 66/68 AND 82 FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z/28TH ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES. ZONE 60 MAY BE THE MOST PRONE TO RECEIVE WINTER STORM
WARNING TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT...ONCE AGAIN IF THE 12Z/28TH ECMWF
IS CORRECT. WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AND ISSUE NEEDED
HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED AND AS WE NEAR THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
GUSTY WINDS(AROUND 50 KNOTS AT TIMES)...PRIMARILY FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BE EXPERIENCED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT
BY THIS WEEKEND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. FINALLY...WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF
THE LONGER TERM ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON OCT 28 2013
KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SHIFT EAST
INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING AND COULD POSSIBLY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
KCOS...CURRENT OBS INDICATE LOWERING CIGS AND VIS. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW STRATUS
AND FOG PRODUCING IFR AND PERIODS OF LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DEGRADED THROUGH 15Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH 18Z TO VFR.
ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE RAMPART RANGE
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
KPUB...CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
CIGS FALLING TO NEAR 800 FEET. FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH 20Z TO VFR. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH RAIN POTENTIAL AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH SPLIT BUT MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES WEST-EAST
FROM KANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER NORTH...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER FORCING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/MISSOURI
AND DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH MAINLY
JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS MORE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM UPSTREAM...
AS NOTED IN LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH. SOME
POTENTIAL PROBABLY EXISTS FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO FROM OUR DEVELOPING
MID-DECK LATER TODAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED MEASURABLE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW WITH THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE NOT
PRODUCING QPF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AS THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ON
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHER THAN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE SUPPORT IS NOTED AND
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RENEWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL MODELS DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER
40-50 KT 850 MB JET IS INDICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IMPINGES ON
THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LIFTS NORTH...SUGGESTING RAPIDLY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...AND SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S...SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RISES IN CHECK DESPITE WARMING
ALOFT TODAY. WARMER TEMPS...IN THE 60S...WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY. RISING TEMPS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY-MONDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOL ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IN SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER INITIALLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER
AIR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVE THE
HIGH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS SETS UP ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SOUTH FLOW AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST ON
MONDAY. TEMPS COOL TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
MODERATING MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS NEXT HOUR FOR BOTH ORD/MDW.
* NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY MID/LATE MORNING.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LATEST OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LOW LEVEL STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO MOVE NORTH
OF THE TERMINALS. THIS TREND SHOULD OCCUR HERE IN THE NEAR TERM
BUT AS THIS OCCURS...THESE MVFR CEILINGS COULD STILL MOVE ACROSS
ORD/MDW. SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS FIRST HOUR TO
SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THESE LOW CEILINGS TO THE
NORTH...ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH ANY PRECIP APPROACHING LATER THIS EVENING
TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF ALL THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE A
STEADY TREND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...MAINTAINING THIS DIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILING TRENDS.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHC OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER LATE WED NGT. MVFR
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS.
THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY W/SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER. MVFR CIGS.
FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.
BEACHLER
&&
.MARINE...
226 PM CDT
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH PERIOD
OF GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TODAY...A COLD
FRONT HAS CLEARED THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT ESE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY...BUT THE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATELY TIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY TO
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT GENERALLY STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LAKE
CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. MIDWEEK...DEEP LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW WILL STILL
BE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THURSDAY LEADING TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW. IT
APPEARS THAT THE GALES MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY EVENING WITH
WINDS TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST AND REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Main challenges with this forecast package are rain chances today
through Thursday and the potential for severe weather Thursday
afternoon.
Current upper air pattern features the main branch of the polar
jet flowing well to the north across central and eastern Canada.
Further southwest, a deep closed low has become cut-off from the
flow and is now meandering eastward across the Great Basin. This
low will be the dominant weather-maker across central Illinois for
the next several days as it slowly makes its way eastward.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Weak frontal boundary that dropped into the area yesterday
afternoon has now become stationary just north of the Ohio River.
To the north of the front, a dry E/NE flow prevails across central
Illinois early this morning, with 07z/2am dewpoints mainly in the
30s. This dry airmass will inhibit the eastward spread of precip
currently developing ahead of a weak short-wave trough over the
Plains. The onset of precip has been gradually delayed with each
model run over the past couple of days, with the 00z Oct 29 suite
now keeping the KILX CWA dry until afternoon. HRRR suggests light
showers may arrive in the Winchester/Jacksonville area around
midday, then will spread eastward to the Indiana border toward
evening. Will therefore go with a dry forecast this morning, then
will focus highest POPs across the southern CWA in closer proximity
to the stalled front this afternoon. Further north toward the I-74
corridor, little or no precip is expected today. Once this initial
wave passes, short-wave ridging in its wake will keep rain
chances low tonight. Despite lack of upper forcing, moistening
airmass and presence of surface boundary support low chance POPs
through the night.
As Great Basin upper low begins to approach from the west, surface
front will get nudged northward on Wednesday. Thanks to southerly
winds south of the boundary, afternoon high temperatures will rise
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon,
particularly along/west of the Illinois River.
Main rain/convective event is still slated for Wednesday night
into Thursday as strong cold front approaches from the west.
Models are generally in good agreement with their mass fields, but
still have some minor differences in QPF. As boundary nears,
copious amounts of moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of
Mexico, with precipitable water values nearing 1.50 on Thursday.
Given ample moisture, strong upper dynamics, and presence of
approaching cold front, will carry likely to categorical POPs
across the board Wednesday night and Thursday. Total rainfall with
this system will generally range from 1 to 1.50, with isolated
higher amounts within stronger storms.
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon as the front swings through the region:
however, details remain uncertain at this point. NAM/GFS forecast
soundings indicate a low CAPE/high shear environment in the warm
sector ahead of the front, with the greatest instability focused
further southeast from the Ohio River Valley to the western Gulf
Coast. Latest DAY 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights this
area for potential severe, but can not rule out a few strong
storms with damaging wind gusts further north across east-central
and southeast Illinois, particularly given impressive 0-6km bulk
shear values of 70 to 75kt.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Cooler and drier weather will return by the end of the week, as
upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. GFS/ECMWF both suggest
clouds and a few showers will be possible across northeast
Illinois into north-central Indiana Friday into Saturday: however,
think these will remain northeast of central Illinois. High
pressure building into the Midwest will be the dominant weather
feature in the extended, resulting in cool highs in the 50s Friday
through Monday. Next chance for rain will likely hold off until
Tuesday when another system approaches from the west.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. High
cirrus will continue overnight and into the morning hours. Then
mid clouds will overspread the TAF sites during the late morning.
As the first wave approaches from the west and tries to make its
way over the mid level ridge, pcpn will diminish as it moves
toward the area. So, initial pcpn will go to saturate the lower
levels first, in the afternoon. So will begin to see some lower
clouds around 5kft in the afternoon with little bit lower mid
clouds. Then by evening, after 00Z, lower clouds will thicken up
and middle clouds will get lower too. At this point, unsure how
widespread pcpn will be. Thinking it could be very light or
scattered, so will have just VCSH for now. Winds will be
northeasterly overnight and then become southeasterly tomorrow
afternoon and continue into the evening hours. Wind speeds will
generally be below 10kts.
Auten
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
428 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED OVER ERN HUDSON BAY AND A
RDG IN THE PLAINS. SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AOB
0.25 INCH IS CENTERED OVER THE UPR LKS...BRINGING QUIET WX TO THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN THE RRQ OF A 100KT H3 JET MAX ARE
STREAMING INTO THE CWA...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND INTO THE
TEENS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC HI.
MORE SC DOES LINGER OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WITH LLVL NW FLOW E OF
THE HI CENTER...AND THESE CLDS HAVE RESTRICTED THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL
IN THIS AREA. LOOKING TO THE W...DESPITE SOME DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA AND BISMARK RAOBS...THERE IS AN AREA OF -SN
OVER SRN NDAKOTA AND NRN SDAKOTA. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
APPEAR TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295-300K SFCS AS WELL AS
A BAND OF H7-75 FGEN UNDER UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF THE H3 JET MAX. AN
UPSLOPE SFC E WIND ALSO APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THE LLVL MOISTENING
DESPITE THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED OUT OF THE E ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SFC HI PRES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS OVER UPR MI
RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CAUSING SOME -SN IN THE NRN
PLAINS.
TODAY...AS THE UPR JET CORE SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...EXPECT
THICKENING HI/MID CLDS UNDER ACCOMPANYING UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF
THIS FEATURE AS SFC HI PRES RDG HANGS BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. AS THE
FLOW BACKS TO THE SW...ANY LK CLDS OVER THE E SHOULD SHIFT BACK INTO
THE LK. MOST OF THE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SOME PCPN ARRIVING NEAR
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z AS BAND OF H7-75 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE NE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW ONLY PATCHY QPF. BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT WL BE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THAT IS AIDING THE LLVL MOISTENING UPSTREAM.
OTHER NEGATIVES INCLUDE QUICK DEPARTURE OF UPR JET CORE TO THE E AFT
18Z AND WEAKENING MID LVL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SO OPTED TO CUT BACK ON
POPS OVER THE N HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIER POPS FOR SOME -SN/-RA
NEAR THE WI BORDER...ESPECIALLY IN MNM COUNTY/SCENTRAL WITH A LGT
UPSLOPE SE WIND JUST TO THE S OF SFC RDG AXIS. THICKENING CLDS
SHOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY...SO TENDED TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SUPPORT FOR PCPN IN THE EVNG WL FADE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR RDG MOVING
NEWD FM THE PLAINS. ENDED THIS LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL BY THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON WED. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DRYING
ALF...MOST MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE MSTR WL LINGER IN THE LOWER
LVLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE PCPN IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL TODAY. SO MAINTAINED CLDY CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA...WITH
PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE NW. THE LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR NW WHERE SOME CLRG IS LIKELY. IF THE CLDS BREAK UP
ELSEWHERE...MIN TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL TROUGHING LIFTS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT EXIT EASTERN CONUS UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. AS THE LEADING TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES...SFC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPS INTO
1000MB SFC LOW OVER UPR GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN DEEPENS
TO 975-980MB LOW BTWN LK SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS IT
HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP TAKING OVER IN WAKE OF THE LOW LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY INDICATE MOISTURE BLO H7 WITH MINIMAL LIFT.
THINKING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE...BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OUT
AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS. COULD BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FORM SOME LGT RAIN LATER IN THE WEST OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTH...NOT A BIG DEAL AT ALL AS PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. TEMPS SHOULD THEN STAY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS SHOWED
24 HR AGO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE OF 250MB JET STREAK LIFTING
ACROSS UPR LAKES INTERACTS WITH H85 AND H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN TO SWEEP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CWA. EVEN WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH...PUT
A MENTION OF FOG IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS DWPNTS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE RIDING OVER COLDER
GROUND SFC WITH 2 INCH SOIL TEMPS WELL BLO 40 THE LAST WEEK OR SO.
IF THE RAIN EXITS QUICKER...THEN THE FOG WOULD LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DRY SLOT/MID-LEVEL DRYING TAPERS OFF RAIN ON THURSDAY
MORNING. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG FOG COULD PERSIST OVER
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND START TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AS SFC
LOW CENTER MOVES TO CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE DEEPENING.
DESPITE CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY RAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE 50S FROM SHEAR ADVECTION ALONE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SFC LOW. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN COULD DEVELOP LATE AFTN/THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SWEEPS IN OVER MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST CWA. KEPT POPS HIGHEST TO THE
EAST OF MQT AND ESC AS THAT IS WHERE LARGER SCALE FORCING INTERACTS
WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION. BASED ON GRADIENT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FCST H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...THINKING BETTER CHANCES OF
TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA LATER THURSDAY AFTN
INTO EVENING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/DEEP MOISTURE MAY DROP ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE COOLER AIRMASS LINGERS AS H85 TEMPS FALL
TO -4C TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY. NW-NNW CYCLONIC FLOW AT 1000-850MB
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY SUGGESTING THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIP. 1000-850MB/H85-H7 THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SFC
TEMPS POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR PTYPE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER EAST. DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE SORTED OUT LATER THIS WEEK...BUT DOES SEEM THAT THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NORTHWEST UPR
MICHIGAN.
TEMPS COOL FURTHER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE EASING AS SFC-H85 RIDGE NEARS FROM THE WEST.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
FOR NW FLOW AREAS TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION
DAY IN WEATHER. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EDGES EAST AS STRONGER JET
ENERGY MOVES TO FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WHICH THEN CLEARS WAY FOR
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO EXPAND TOWARD ROCKIES AND RIDGING TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING LOOKS BRIEF THOUGH AS THE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS LEADING
TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE A TREND TOWARD THICKENING HI/MID CLDS WELL N OF
A WARM FNT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS UNDER LINGERING SFC
RDG AXIS THRU AT LEAST MOST OF THE DAY. AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL BRING
SOME -SN TO MAINLY THE S HALF OF UPR MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG...AND
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT THE MORE SRN SAW/IWD LOCATIONS DURING
THIS TIME IF THE LLVL DRY AIR IS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. SE-E WINDS 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THEN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT NW 25-30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLDER AIR PLUNGES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION. WINDS DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
LIGHT PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE CHANCE
OF RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIP IS HIGH...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW
/LIQUID AMOUNTS UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AND SNOW ACCUMS ONE HALF
INCH OR LESS/. RAIN AND SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND THEN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP
AND SLEET OVER FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER DAYBREAK...WHERE BRIGHT BANDING HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON RADAR
OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT...WITH FAINT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN
/POSSIBLY WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OVER CENTRAL MN/.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
30S TO LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MAIN UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS INDICATED. LATEST
AVAILABLE SREF PROBABILITY OF THUNDER BRINGS SMALL CHANCE INTO FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND SPREADS IT A BIT
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE WEAK
MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG PROGGED OFF THE
GFS AND THE BEST LI`S AS LOW AS MINUS 4. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH AT
LEAST FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN
FROM 00Z.31 THROUGH 06Z.31 AS 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS AND IS
SHUNTED TO THE EAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...STRONG
HEIGHT FALL CENTER OF OVER 120 DECAMETERS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
AS 130 KT UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE AREA. 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS 12Z
WED THROUGH 12Z THU SHOULD RANGE AROUND ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.
SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST. SHOULD WANE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WEST AND BY EVENING INTO HE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POTENTIAL FROM ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FOR FRIDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS FOR FURTHER POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER LIGHT SHOWERY EVENT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT IF IT DOES OCCUR.
RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS THEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK THROUGH THE LOWER 50S. SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THE
PERIOD AS WELL. THIS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
LOOKING AT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR...ALONG WITH THE 00Z
NAM...IS LOOKING LIKE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAYS PRECIP EVENT MAY TURN
OUT TO BE MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING. DID NOT CHANGE INHERITED TAFS
MUCH...OTHER THAN TO REMOVE SNOW MENTION FROM EAU. GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE OF SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM NOT MUCH HAPPENING /HRRR/ TO A
GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH /18Z GFS/...HAVE CONTINUED TO
BE RATHER CONSERVATIVE WITH PRECIP IN TAFS. BASED ON ALL THE DRY
AIR IN THE MPX 00Z SOUNDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO THE GROUND...SO CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER END OF
THINGS RIGHT NOW. FOR CIGS...HRRR/RAP WOULD SUGGEST MVFR CIGS IN
TAFS ARE WAY OVER DONE FOR TODAY OUTSIDE OF WRN MN...WITH THE RAP
SHOWING MOST MPX TAFS ENJOYING VFR CONDS TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE ARRIVING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND WITH THAT...LOOKS LIKELY THAT ALL TERMINALS WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS AT SOME POINT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
KMSP...CONFIDENCE BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN MSP SEEING ANY PRECIP
TUE MORNING. STILL LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW FROM ABOUT 12-16Z WHERE A
BRIEF RA OR SN SHOWER COULD BE SEEN...BUT LATEST RUNS OF THE
NAM/HRRR DO NOT LEAVE MUCH HOPE FOR THAT OCCURRING. IN
ADDITION...THE RAP WOULD SAY OTHER THAN THAT 12-16Z PRECIP
WINDOW...CIGS WILL BE VFR ON TUESDAY...SO THE PROGRESSION OF MVFR
CIGS TO THE SW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS CONDITIONS MAY
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT AT LEAST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH RA LIKELY IN AFTN. WINDS E 10KTS.
THU...MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH -RA ENDING IN MRNG. WINDS BCMG W 10-15KTS.
FRI...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS W 15G25KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
344 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
THE DEEP H500 MB UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WRN WY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE STRENGTHENING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM 850 MB TO
700 MB AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG DRY SLOW WORKING
INTO THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 850-700MB DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL NOSES INTO WYOMING TONIGHT...STEEPENING
LAPSES MIGHT SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT
700 MB IN THESE AREAS COOL TO -2C TO -4C WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT
RAPID SNOW GROWTH AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AT 850MB...ALL MODELS ARE ABOVE FREEZING 1C TO 4C...FREEZING RAIN
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY THREAT.
NOTE THE BEST GUESS AT MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING PRODUCED
LOWS NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A FREEZING LINE RUNNING
FROM ROUGHLY BIG SPRINGS TO AINSWORTH. HIGHS TODAY RISE TO THE MID
30S ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THE RAP MODEL PRODUCED
HIGHS AROUND 33 IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR SHOWED 35F.
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT...IT WOULD APPEAR ABOUT 8 TO
10 HOURS OF SUBFREEZING WEATHER COULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SHERIDAN AND
CHERRY COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK AROUND NOON IN THIS AREA AND WE ARE FORECASTING WARMER LOWS
TONIGHT THAN ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...FOG COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT BUT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AS SUGGESTED IN THE 850-700MB MOISTURE FIELDS. DRIZZLE WOULD APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE PRECIPITATION MODE WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GFS
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
OTHER MODELS DO THE SAME BUT ARE FARTHER EAST FAVORING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEB WITH THIS RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKES THE GFS IS MAINTAINING A
STRONGLY BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM FOR EXAMPLE VEERS
THE 850 WINDS A BIT MORE TOWARD ERN NEB. THE 305K ISENTROPIC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN BOTH MODELS IS DIRECTED TOWARD EASTERN
AND CNTL NEB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. REALLY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SNOW...AS ALL MODELS KEEP TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ABOVE FREEZING. AT
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WARRANTS A THUNDER MENTION DURING THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS NORTHEAST...ENDING
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES BOOSTING
HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AND WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER
WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROZEN...FREEZING OR LIQUID IN A LARGE
PART OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
OTHERWISE...CEILINGS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE 500-1000 FEET AGL WITH
A FEW BELOW 500 FEET. ALSO...AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHICH INCLUDES
ANW...VTN...TIF AND MHN...FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
LIKELY. IN THE FAR NORTH...THAT IS VTN AND ANW...FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER BRIEFLY TO SNOW. AFTER 16Z
WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32F...IT IS ALL EXPECTED TO BE LIQUID.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
328 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES ANTICIPATED DIMINISHING SNOWFALL
THIS MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIP TYPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AT 3 AM CDT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE ROCKIES NEAR
NEVADA/IDAHO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...THE FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LIGHT SNOW FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM
EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA APPEARED TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...EXCEPT FOR AN ENHANCED AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WAS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE HRRR 3KM REFLECTIVITY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THAT MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
HRRR DIMINISHES THE SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NOTHING
AFTER DAYBREAK/12Z. THE MODEL INDICATES SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BY 6 AM MDT THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST TO WYOMING AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THUS THE MODELS WERE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION VERY CLOSE TO THE ND BORDER IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO THE 30S...BUT
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR
SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER WYOMING WITH CONTINUED
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT CONTINUES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT WARM ADVECTION LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS/EC AND GLOBAL
GEM ALL PRODUCING QPF OVER OUR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. BY THIS TIME ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE EVENING WE COULD AGAIN SEE A MIXED BAG
OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN A
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING US BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S. HAVE STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY SECTOR...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW COLD ADVECTION RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
HAZARDS TO AVIATION TONIGHT WILL BE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AT 1230 AM CDT...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE BORDERS OF MANITOBA/NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER COLORADO/WYOMING. THESE 2
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...CONTINUING TO IMPACT KDIK
WITH IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. MVFR VSBY AT KDIK SHOULD IMPROVE TO 5SM
BY 09Z AND THOUGH SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING EXPECT FOG WITH MVFR VSBY
UNTIL AROUND 18Z. MVFR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN KISN...DEVELOP
AT KBIS AROUND/AFTER 08Z AND AT KJMS AFT 09Z. OTHERWISE VFR AT
KMOT.
BECOMING VFR ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. LATER TUESDAY EVENING A LARGE
AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUDINESS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD BRINGING MVFR CIGS
TO SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFT 02Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE SHIELD UP
ACROSS THE REGION. THE 00Z NAM AND RAP INDICATE QPF ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FA...WHILE THE 00Z GFS KEEPS ALL MEASURABLE PRECIP SOUTH
OF THE FA. CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP THE GFS MAKES MORE
SENSE...BUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES STILL POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD NOW OVER
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADY THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS TONIGHT AND ALSO
PCPN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MAINLY TUE INTO WED. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SO WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A BLEND. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WERE THINNING PRETTY EXTENSIVELY. THEREFORE
WILL START THE EVENING WITH JUST A BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA
AND EXPECT IT TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT
WIND SPEEDS BECOMING PRETTY LIGHT OR LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST SO IF
ANY AREAS STAY CLEAR TEMPS COULD DROP OFF ONCE AGAIN. WILL KEEP
COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. AS FOR PCPN CHANCES THEY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT LEAST. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE
WETTEST NAM SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A BAND OF A QUARTER INCH MOVING
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS LOOK MUCH
MORE BELIEVABLE WITH THE DRY NORTHEAST SFC FLOW AND THEY HAVE
LITTLE IF ANYTHING FALLING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS WWD MAPS HAD
INDICATED A POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT LATEST DAY1
HAS SHIFTED IT FURTHER SOUTH AND THIS LOOKS GOOD.
PCPN CHANCES ON TUE ARE ALSO LOOKING PRETTY MEAGER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT THE NAM. OTHER MODELS SHOW ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES ACROSS THE VERY FAR SOUTH. SHOULD HAVE A LOT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH. ABOVE
MENTIONED TRENDS CONTINUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS WELL SO MOST OF THE FA
SHOULD STAY PCPN FREE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED INTO THU. PCPN CHANCES WILL FINALLY INCREASE AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE DEGREE
OF WRAPAROUND PCPN WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT EASTERN ND. SOME RUNS
HAVE BEEN DRY AND SOME WETTER BUT REGARDLESS THIS WOULD BE THE
AREA FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN RAIN BAND. CURRENT EVENT FORECAST
WOULD GIVE A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN OR SO FROM WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE
UP TOWARD BEMIDJI. VERY LITTLE TO NOTHING EXPECTED FROM
COOPERSTOWN TO GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU.
WILL MAINTAIN LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAINLY EAST OF A ROX-FSE-PKD LINE AS WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE LINGERS. TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN...IF ANY
PRECIP FALLS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY THEN MODELS
DIFFER WITH NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM FOR SUN-MON. GFS REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH SFC LOW AND PRECIP MORE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHILE 12Z GEM/ECMWF AREA TAD FARTHER NORTH WITH 12Z ECMWF THE
FARTHEST NORTH WITH SFC LOW TRACKING NORTH OF REGINA-WINNIPEG.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER FOR MIXED RA/SN.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH MOSTLY 40S FOR
HIGHS THU-SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CIRRUS WILL BE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLOSER THE NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...BUT STILL VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1134 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WILL PLAGUE NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL CREATE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES
ACROSS THIS AREA. CONDITIONS LOOKS TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT PER
THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DATA. THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER.
HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT IN MOST PLACES BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR AND NAM MODEL RUNS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ON THE WAY.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT BUT ANTICIPATE THE LOW
CLOUDS TO MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RUN HRRR PICKING UP
ON SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A 10
POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z. UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY...INTO FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TO
LOWER 90S OUT WEST. ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SE AND SSE.
PW VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES (2.1 INCHES IF THE GFS
VERIFIES) AS DISTURBANCE SCOOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. POPS RANGE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. YET ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THURSDAY/S FROPA.
&&
.MARINE/COASTAL...ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN BAYS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN SCA AT THIS TIME. REGARDING THE RIP CURRENT RISK...
SWELLS APPEAR TO BE FINALLY LOWERING A BIT...BUT THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED WARRANT CONTINUING THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT FOR NOW. IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE...THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY
CANCEL EARLY.
&&
.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH S TX ON THU...WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. WED NIGHT AHD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS PROG PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS S TX. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE IS PROGD TO COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRAS ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE SRN CWA WED
NIGHT...HOWEVER AM STILL EXPECTING ISOLD PRECIP DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ABV THE INVERSION. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE NRN CWA BTWN 15-18Z THU. THE VCT CROSSROADS HAS THE
HIGHEST POPS DUE TO LITTLE TO NO CAP...HIGHEST CAPE AND PROXIMITY TO
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NE CWA. STRONGEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE NE OF THE CWA (ACROSS EAST TX AND LA AND EXTENDING NE) WHERE THE
STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. THE NE
CWA COULD BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SVR. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...HVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE
CWA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY RESULTING IN
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. ISOLD
AMOUNTS COULD BE 2-2.5 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF THE FRONT
SLOWS OR STALLS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VCT TO CRP...THEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE MUCH HIGHER INTO THU EVENING DURING HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
TSRA CHCS ARE LOWER TO THE W DUE TO STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER OVERALL
DYNAMICS...BUT STILL SHOULD BE SCT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING
0.5-1 INCH. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE...SO WILL THE CONVECTION BUT THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THU EVENING...IF THE
FRONT DOES NOT SLOW DOWN. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL ELEVATED -SHRAS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX ON
FRI WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MVG INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLRG SKIES AND MILD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHCS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 75 87 76 86 / 10 20 30 30 50
VICTORIA 87 73 84 72 82 / 10 20 70 60 70
LAREDO 92 76 93 77 90 / 10 10 20 20 40
ALICE 89 73 89 74 87 / 10 20 30 30 40
ROCKPORT 86 76 84 76 85 / 10 20 40 40 70
COTULLA 90 74 88 72 85 / 10 10 30 40 40
KINGSVILLE 89 75 90 76 87 / 10 20 30 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 78 84 / 10 20 30 30 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
TB/78...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
AT 04Z MVFR CIGS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...HAVING
REACHED KSAT AND KSSF. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH KAUS BY 07Z AND KDRT
BY 08Z. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BETWEEN 10Z AND 11Z. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 17Z...VFR BY 19Z. THE PREVAILING
S TO SE FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO RETURN BY 30/04Z.
SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT SE AT 5 TO 8 KTS...10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL NOT MENTION CONVECTION IN THE TAFS ATTM FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
A MODERATE S TO SE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN THE
EARLY ONSET OF MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
FOG FORMATION...WITH PATCHY VSBYS REMAINING AOA 1 MILE IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE DELAYED LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 12Z HIRES-ARW AND THE 21Z RUC13 IN
REGARDS TO THE FORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A
BLEND OF THE SLOWER RUC13 AND LATEST LAMP MOS GUIDANCE.
I-35 TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS WILL FORM BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z...LOWERING
TO IFR BY 11Z. CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z...VFR BY 17Z. SFC WINDS
OVERNIGHT SE AT 5 TO 8 KTS...SE 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KDRT TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS FORM AROUND 07Z LOWERING TO IFR BY 10Z.
CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 16Z...VFR BY 20Z. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT SE
AT 5 TO 10 KTS...AROUND 15 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT MON OCT 28 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
HUMID AND CLOUDY NIGHT. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS APPEAR TO REMAIN
TOO TIGHT TO PROMOTE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...BUT COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE NEAR-SUNRISE HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA AND RESULT IN
ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON.
DEEPENING MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDY MUGGY AND MILD PATTERN WILL
PERSIST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING MOSTLY NEAR 70.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...IT WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE/TROUGH. A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DIG INTO TEXAS ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FROPA. MODELS ARE PROJECTING PW VALUES TO SURGE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY (NORMAL PWS FOR
LATE OCTOBER ARE GENERALLY 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES). GIVEN OUR POSITION
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE
IS A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ONE TO THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
(LOW 60S HILL COUNTRY) BY 9 PM. THE DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY AND FLATTEN-OUT
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA AND
RESULT IN CHILLY MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS ON SUNDAY LEADING TO A RAPID
WARMING TREND OF OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 70 84 70 82 71 / - 10 30 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 67 84 70 80 71 / - 10 30 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 85 71 82 70 / - 10 30 50 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 67 81 67 78 66 / - 10 30 70 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 70 83 71 83 65 / - 20 30 30 30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 67 82 68 81 68 / - 10 30 70 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 72 87 73 85 70 / - 10 30 50 50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 67 84 70 81 70 / - 10 30 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 87 73 83 74 / - 10 20 50 70
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 86 73 83 71 / - 10 30 50 60
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 88 73 85 73 / - 10 30 50 60
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
956 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Large rain shield advancing eastward across Missouri, but the
eastern edge is being chewed up by the dry air that is currently
in place over Illinois. Initial radar returns will go toward
moistening up the column from the top down, so it will probably be
toward early afternoon before any steadier rains arrive in our
forecast area, and then it will be most likely south of I-72. Have
left slight chance PoP`s in across the northeast third of the CWA
for now, although latest guidance from the NAM/RAP/HRRR models is
indicating that any rain today will likely remain to the south,
and would probably hold off until mid or late afternoon if it does
manage to get that far north.
Have sent some updated zones/grids to freshen up the temperature
and rain trends, although no significant changes were made.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
VFR conditions into the afternoon hours, then timing of the
MVFR/IFR cigs late this afternoon across the west and over the
remainder of the area tonight will be the main forecast challenge.
Band of showers over Missouri expected to weaken as it pushes east
into a drier air mass today. None the less, we do expect some
light shower activity to make it at least into the SPI and DEC in
the 15z-18z time frame. Forecast soundings continue to hold with
mainly VFR cigs despite the rain but feel with a persistent
moistening occurring at the mid and low levels of the atmosphere
over the next 12 to 18 hours...we should see deteriorating
conditions with respect to cigs and vsbys...and that would be
especially true for all areas tonight. Surface winds will be
southeast at 10 to 15 kts today and tonight.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Main challenges with this forecast package are rain chances today
through Thursday and the potential for severe weather Thursday
afternoon.
Current upper air pattern features the main branch of the polar
jet flowing well to the north across central and eastern Canada.
Further southwest, a deep closed low has become cut-off from the
flow and is now meandering eastward across the Great Basin. This
low will be the dominant weather-maker across central Illinois for
the next several days as it slowly makes its way eastward.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Weak frontal boundary that dropped into the area yesterday
afternoon has now become stationary just north of the Ohio River.
To the north of the front, a dry E/NE flow prevails across central
Illinois early this morning, with 07z/2am dewpoints mainly in the
30s. This dry airmass will inhibit the eastward spread of precip
currently developing ahead of a weak short-wave trough over the
Plains. The onset of precip has been gradually delayed with each
model run over the past couple of days, with the 00z Oct 29 suite
now keeping the KILX CWA dry until afternoon. HRRR suggests light
showers may arrive in the Winchester/Jacksonville area around
midday, then will spread eastward to the Indiana border toward
evening. Will therefore go with a dry forecast this morning, then
will focus highest POPs across the southern CWA in closer proximity
to the stalled front this afternoon. Further north toward the I-74
corridor, little or no precip is expected today. Once this initial
wave passes, short-wave ridging in its wake will keep rain
chances low tonight. Despite lack of upper forcing, moistening
airmass and presence of surface boundary support low chance POPs
through the night.
As Great Basin upper low begins to approach from the west, surface
front will get nudged northward on Wednesday. Thanks to southerly
winds south of the boundary, afternoon high temperatures will rise
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon,
particularly along/west of the Illinois River.
Main rain/convective event is still slated for Wednesday night
into Thursday as strong cold front approaches from the west.
Models are generally in good agreement with their mass fields, but
still have some minor differences in QPF. As boundary nears,
copious amounts of moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of
Mexico, with precipitable water values nearing 1.50 on Thursday.
Given ample moisture, strong upper dynamics, and presence of
approaching cold front, will carry likely to categorical POPs
across the board Wednesday night and Thursday. Total rainfall with
this system will generally range from 1 to 1.50, with isolated
higher amounts within stronger storms.
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon as the front swings through the region:
however, details remain uncertain at this point. NAM/GFS forecast
soundings indicate a low CAPE/high shear environment in the warm
sector ahead of the front, with the greatest instability focused
further southeast from the Ohio River Valley to the western Gulf
Coast. Latest DAY 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights this
area for potential severe, but can not rule out a few strong
storms with damaging wind gusts further north across east-central
and southeast Illinois, particularly given impressive 0-6km bulk
shear values of 70 to 75kt.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Cooler and drier weather will return by the end of the week, as
upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. GFS/ECMWF both suggest
clouds and a few showers will be possible across northeast
Illinois into north-central Indiana Friday into Saturday: however,
think these will remain northeast of central Illinois. High
pressure building into the Midwest will be the dominant weather
feature in the extended, resulting in cool highs in the 50s Friday
through Monday. Next chance for rain will likely hold off until
Tuesday when another system approaches from the west.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
653 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH RAIN POTENTIAL AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH SPLIT BUT MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES WEST-EAST
FROM KANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER NORTH...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER FORCING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/MISSOURI
AND DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH MAINLY
JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS MORE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM UPSTREAM...
AS NOTED IN LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH. SOME
POTENTIAL PROBABLY EXISTS FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO FROM OUR DEVELOPING
MID-DECK LATER TODAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED MEASURABLE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW WITH THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE NOT
PRODUCING QPF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AS THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ON
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHER THAN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE SUPPORT IS NOTED AND
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RENEWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL MODELS DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER
40-50 KT 850 MB JET IS INDICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IMPINGES ON
THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LIFTS NORTH...SUGGESTING RAPIDLY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...AND SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S...SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RISES IN CHECK DESPITE WARMING
ALOFT TODAY. WARMER TEMPS...IN THE 60S...WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY. RISING TEMPS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY-MONDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOL ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IN SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER INITIALLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER
AIR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVE THE
HIGH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS SETS UP ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SOUTH FLOW AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST ON
MONDAY. TEMPS COOL TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
MODERATING MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THRU 15Z TODAY FOR ORD ONLY.
* EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST W/ MID TEEN GUSTS BY MID/LATE
MORNING.
* MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* -SHRA MOVING NEAR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MVFR STRATUS PERSISTING PRIMARILY OVER ORD EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ORD BEING IN A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR PERSISTENT
DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE THESE CEILINGS LIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT ORD...BUT COULD COME CLOSE TO DPA AS THIS LIFTS NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING AT 1500FT...WITH THEM NOT
ANTICIPATED TO LOWER ANY FURTHER. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LOW
STRATUS...ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIP
SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
RFD...IT DOES APPEAR AS IF BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND LIKEWISE PRECIP AXIS. ALTHOUGH FURTHER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING OVER
THE TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS THIS MORNING AND
TODAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SPEED/DIRECTION.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH -SHRA/TRENDS TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA W/ CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...SHRA W/ CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
418 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH A SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS SITUATED. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT EAST
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WHILE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THESE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30KT. ONCE
AGAIN...ITS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME
WHEN GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME
FRAME AND IF INCREASING TRENDS OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
RUNS...POSSIBLE GALES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME WEST STILL HOLDING AT 30 KT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THAT DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
605 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Main challenges with this forecast package are rain chances today
through Thursday and the potential for severe weather Thursday
afternoon.
Current upper air pattern features the main branch of the polar
jet flowing well to the north across central and eastern Canada.
Further southwest, a deep closed low has become cut-off from the
flow and is now meandering eastward across the Great Basin. This
low will be the dominant weather-maker across central Illinois for
the next several days as it slowly makes its way eastward.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Weak frontal boundary that dropped into the area yesterday
afternoon has now become stationary just north of the Ohio River.
To the north of the front, a dry E/NE flow prevails across central
Illinois early this morning, with 07z/2am dewpoints mainly in the
30s. This dry airmass will inhibit the eastward spread of precip
currently developing ahead of a weak short-wave trough over the
Plains. The onset of precip has been gradually delayed with each
model run over the past couple of days, with the 00z Oct 29 suite
now keeping the KILX CWA dry until afternoon. HRRR suggests light
showers may arrive in the Winchester/Jacksonville area around
midday, then will spread eastward to the Indiana border toward
evening. Will therefore go with a dry forecast this morning, then
will focus highest POPs across the southern CWA in closer proximity
to the stalled front this afternoon. Further north toward the I-74
corridor, little or no precip is expected today. Once this initial
wave passes, short-wave ridging in its wake will keep rain
chances low tonight. Despite lack of upper forcing, moistening
airmass and presence of surface boundary support low chance POPs
through the night.
As Great Basin upper low begins to approach from the west, surface
front will get nudged northward on Wednesday. Thanks to southerly
winds south of the boundary, afternoon high temperatures will rise
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon,
particularly along/west of the Illinois River.
Main rain/convective event is still slated for Wednesday night
into Thursday as strong cold front approaches from the west.
Models are generally in good agreement with their mass fields, but
still have some minor differences in QPF. As boundary nears,
copious amounts of moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of
Mexico, with precipitable water values nearing 1.50 on Thursday.
Given ample moisture, strong upper dynamics, and presence of
approaching cold front, will carry likely to categorical POPs
across the board Wednesday night and Thursday. Total rainfall with
this system will generally range from 1 to 1.50, with isolated
higher amounts within stronger storms.
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon as the front swings through the region:
however, details remain uncertain at this point. NAM/GFS forecast
soundings indicate a low CAPE/high shear environment in the warm
sector ahead of the front, with the greatest instability focused
further southeast from the Ohio River Valley to the western Gulf
Coast. Latest DAY 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights this
area for potential severe, but can not rule out a few strong
storms with damaging wind gusts further north across east-central
and southeast Illinois, particularly given impressive 0-6km bulk
shear values of 70 to 75kt.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Cooler and drier weather will return by the end of the week, as
upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. GFS/ECMWF both suggest
clouds and a few showers will be possible across northeast
Illinois into north-central Indiana Friday into Saturday: however,
think these will remain northeast of central Illinois. High
pressure building into the Midwest will be the dominant weather
feature in the extended, resulting in cool highs in the 50s Friday
through Monday. Next chance for rain will likely hold off until
Tuesday when another system approaches from the west.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
VFR conditions into the afternoon hours, then timing of the
MVFR/IFR cigs late this afternoon across the west and over the
remainder of the area tonight will be the main forecast challenge.
Band of showers over Missouri expected to weaken as it pushes east
into a drier air mass today. None the less, we do expect some
light shower activity to make it at least into the SPI and DEC in
the 15z-18z time frame. Forecast soundings continue to hold with
mainly VFR cigs despite the rain but feel with a persistent
moistening occurring at the mid and low levels of the atmosphere
over the next 12 to 18 hours...we should see deteriorating
conditions with respect to cigs and vsbys...and that would be
especially true for all areas tonight. Surface winds will be
southeast at 10 to 15 kts today and tonight.
Smith
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
08Z water vapor imagery shows a closed low over the Great Basin. At
the surface, low pressure was centered over the TX panhandle where a
cold front was pushing south southeast. An inverted trough stretched
northeast from the area of low pressure across central KS, just west
of the forecast area. Southerly flow continues to feed a relatively
moist airmass into the MCS that has developed over eastern KS.
For today and tonight, the thinking is that once the MCS passes to
the east of the forecast area mid to late morning, that there should
be a general lull in widespread precip. Much of the forcing for the
MCS has been derived from the low level jet and isentropic assent
feeding moisture north. Models show the low level jet veering to the
southwest by mid morning which should focus the better forcing to
the east across MO. Will keep a POP through the day however as low
level isentropic surfaces maintain some weak lift within a saturated
stable layer shown by the model forecast soundings. Because of this
there could be some patchy drizzle throughout the day, although
there are signs this lift weakens through the afternoon. The GFS and
NA< also maintain some modest instability within the warm sector
mainly south of the area. The biggest question for today is how far
a weak low will propagate northeast along the inverted trough into
north central KS. This has implications mainly for sky cover and
temps. If it makes it into north central KS by this afternoon, the
warm front could lift north along the I-70 corridor and allow for
the low clouds to scatter out and temps to warm a little more. With
the warmer temps, the surface based instability could move a little
further north. Fortunately there does not appear to be a big
shortwave within the flow to spark deep moist convection, and the
forecast soundings keep a capping inversion over the warm sector.
Nevertheless did not feel confident enough to just go with drizzle
and maintained a mention of showers and thunderstorms through the
afternoon. At this point think areas along and north of I-70 will
remain overcast and cool with highs in the upper 50s along the NEB
state line to the mid 60s along I-70. Have temps warming to near 70
from EMP to Abilene where the warm front is more likely to move to.
Tonight timing of the next wave of precip is the main concern.
Models suggest a weak wave lifting out of the based of the closed
low to the west. This should cause the surface low pressure to
redevelop back to the southwest near the TX/OK panhandles and cause
the low level jet to back to the south again. The forecast shows
POPs increasing after midnight, but it appears the forcing comes
together mainly after 12Z. Lows should be mild for late October with
upper 50s and low 60s due to cloud cover and continued moisture
advection.
Wolters
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
Main upper trough will begin to lift out of the Rockies and into the
plains Wednesday and Wednesday night. Large scale ascent will be in
the increase through the day as the warm front remains situated
closer to the Nebraska border which is where the highest rainfall
amounts are expected. As the cold front begins to make an eastward
push across the CWA in the afternoon more showers and thunderstorms
are expected to form along and ahead of it...however the degree of
instability will remains uncertain with widespread cloud cover and
precip ahead of it during much of the day. Although feel the models
are overdoing the midday MLCAPE...still feel that 500-1000 J/kg are
not unreasonable with plenty of shear. Therefore...could see a brief
window in the late afternoon/early evening for strong to severe
convection along the front as high temps slowly edge up through the
upper 60s/near 70. As the front and axis of deeper moisture ahead of
it slowly shift eastward across the Wednesday night...so will the
higher pops...with likely chances limited to areas generally south
and east of the Kansas Turnpike after midnight.
As the cold front pushes southeast out of the county warning area
Thursday morning...precipitation chance will go with it as much
drier air in its wake as the main upper trough axis moves to the
east in the afternoon. Will carry a dry forecast for Thursday afternoon
as skies become mostly sunny all areas with highs in the lower 60s.
Will then maintain a dry forecast Friday and through the weekend as the
CWA remains in between the two troughs over the eastern and western
CONUS. Although highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s will be in the
rule Friday and Saturday...a return to southerly winds be Sunday and
warm advection ahead of the advancing western trough should allow
for highs to rebound back into the low to middle 60s on Sunday. The
next chance for showers arrives Monday into Monday night with the
approach of the upper trough in the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
With precip exiting to the east sooner than expected, will keep a
dry forecast beginning at 12Z. There may still be some drizzle
through the day, but latest OBS do not show drizzle immediately
behind the precip shield. Main concern is how far north and east
the warm front will lift this afternoon. The last several runs of
the RAP13 have been going back and forth in bringing the boundary
near the terminals. This will have a large impact on whether
IFR/LIFR conditions persist or if CIGS lift to MVFR. For now
stayed with persistence and maintained a IFR forecast since the
NAM and now the RAP keep the warm front just south. Precip could
move back into the terminals prior to 12Z Wed, but chances look
better after 12Z so have not included a mention at this time.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED OVER ERN HUDSON BAY AND A
RDG IN THE PLAINS. SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AOB
0.25 INCH IS CENTERED OVER THE UPR LKS...BRINGING QUIET WX TO THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN THE RRQ OF A 100KT H3 JET MAX ARE
STREAMING INTO THE CWA...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND INTO THE
TEENS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC HI.
MORE SC DOES LINGER OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WITH LLVL NW FLOW E OF
THE HI CENTER...AND THESE CLDS HAVE RESTRICTED THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL
IN THIS AREA. LOOKING TO THE W...DESPITE SOME DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA AND BISMARK RAOBS...THERE IS AN AREA OF -SN
OVER SRN NDAKOTA AND NRN SDAKOTA. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
APPEAR TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295-300K SFCS AS WELL AS
A BAND OF H7-75 FGEN UNDER UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF THE H3 JET MAX. AN
UPSLOPE SFC E WIND ALSO APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THE LLVL MOISTENING
DESPITE THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED OUT OF THE E ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SFC HI PRES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS OVER UPR MI
RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CAUSING SOME -SN IN THE NRN
PLAINS.
TODAY...AS THE UPR JET CORE SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...EXPECT
THICKENING HI/MID CLDS UNDER ACCOMPANYING UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF
THIS FEATURE AS SFC HI PRES RDG HANGS BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. AS THE
FLOW BACKS TO THE SW...ANY LK CLDS OVER THE E SHOULD SHIFT BACK INTO
THE LK. MOST OF THE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SOME PCPN ARRIVING NEAR
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z AS BAND OF H7-75 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE NE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW ONLY PATCHY QPF. BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT WL BE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THAT IS AIDING THE LLVL MOISTENING UPSTREAM.
OTHER NEGATIVES INCLUDE QUICK DEPARTURE OF UPR JET CORE TO THE E AFT
18Z AND WEAKENING MID LVL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SO OPTED TO CUT BACK ON
POPS OVER THE N HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIER POPS FOR SOME -SN/-RA
NEAR THE WI BORDER...ESPECIALLY IN MNM COUNTY/SCENTRAL WITH A LGT
UPSLOPE SE WIND JUST TO THE S OF SFC RDG AXIS. THICKENING CLDS
SHOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY...SO TENDED TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SUPPORT FOR PCPN IN THE EVNG WL FADE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR RDG MOVING
NEWD FM THE PLAINS. ENDED THIS LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL BY THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON WED. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DRYING
ALF...MOST MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE MSTR WL LINGER IN THE LOWER
LVLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE PCPN IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL TODAY. SO MAINTAINED CLDY CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA...WITH
PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE NW. THE LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR NW WHERE SOME CLRG IS LIKELY. IF THE CLDS BREAK UP
ELSEWHERE...MIN TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL TROUGHING LIFTS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT EXIT EASTERN CONUS UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. AS THE LEADING TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES...SFC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPS INTO
1000MB SFC LOW OVER UPR GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN DEEPENS
TO 975-980MB LOW BTWN LK SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS IT
HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP TAKING OVER IN WAKE OF THE LOW LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY INDICATE MOISTURE BLO H7 WITH MINIMAL LIFT.
THINKING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE...BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OUT
AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS. COULD BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FORM SOME LGT RAIN LATER IN THE WEST OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTH...NOT A BIG DEAL AT ALL AS PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. TEMPS SHOULD THEN STAY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS SHOWED
24 HR AGO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE OF 250MB JET STREAK LIFTING
ACROSS UPR LAKES INTERACTS WITH H85 AND H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN TO SWEEP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CWA. EVEN WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH...PUT
A MENTION OF FOG IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS DWPNTS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE RIDING OVER COLDER
GROUND SFC WITH 2 INCH SOIL TEMPS WELL BLO 40 THE LAST WEEK OR SO.
IF THE RAIN EXITS QUICKER...THEN THE FOG WOULD LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DRY SLOT/MID-LEVEL DRYING TAPERS OFF RAIN ON THURSDAY
MORNING. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG FOG COULD PERSIST OVER
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND START TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AS SFC
LOW CENTER MOVES TO CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE DEEPENING.
DESPITE CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY RAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE 50S FROM SHEAR ADVECTION ALONE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SFC LOW. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN COULD DEVELOP LATE AFTN/THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SWEEPS IN OVER MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST CWA. KEPT POPS HIGHEST TO THE
EAST OF MQT AND ESC AS THAT IS WHERE LARGER SCALE FORCING INTERACTS
WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION. BASED ON GRADIENT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FCST H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...THINKING BETTER CHANCES OF
TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA LATER THURSDAY AFTN
INTO EVENING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/DEEP MOISTURE MAY DROP ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE COOLER AIRMASS LINGERS AS H85 TEMPS FALL
TO -4C TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY. NW-NNW CYCLONIC FLOW AT 1000-850MB
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY SUGGESTING THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIP. 1000-850MB/H85-H7 THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SFC
TEMPS POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR PTYPE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER EAST. DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE SORTED OUT LATER THIS WEEK...BUT DOES SEEM THAT THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NORTHWEST UPR
MICHIGAN.
TEMPS COOL FURTHER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE EASING AS SFC-H85 RIDGE NEARS FROM THE WEST.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
FOR NW FLOW AREAS TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION
DAY IN WEATHER. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EDGES EAST AS STRONGER JET
ENERGY MOVES TO FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WHICH THEN CLEARS WAY FOR
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO EXPAND TOWARD ROCKIES AND RIDGING TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING LOOKS BRIEF THOUGH AS THE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS LEADING
TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
ALTHOUGH THERE WL BE A TREND TOWARD THICKENING HI/MID CLDS WELL N OF
A WARM FNT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS UNDER LINGERING SFC
RDG AXIS THRU AT LEAST MOST OF TODAY. AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL BRING
SOME -SN TO MAINLY THE S HALF OF UPR MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG...AND
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT THE MORE SRN SAW/IWD LOCATIONS DURING
THIS TIME IF THE LLVL DRY AIR IS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY. CMX IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE PCPN REMAINING TO THE S.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. SE-E WINDS 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THEN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT NW 25-30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLDER AIR PLUNGES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION. WINDS DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
959 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 959 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
Rainfall continues across the region this morning. There has been
a decrease in lightning reports over the past hour or so,
indicative of an instability starved airmass. Latest RUC forecast
indicates MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg over much of the area for
the rest of today, thus it appears that our main issues for the
rest of this morning into this afternoon will be a few cloud to
ground lightning strikes and perhaps a storm capable of small hail
(though the risk for hail is decreasing at this time).
Rainfall has been heavy in spots and the radar estimations look to
be in the ballpark based on observed rainfall reports this
morning. Legacy precip estimations appear to most representative
at this time.
From a forecast perspective, concern is increasing for additional
rounds of heavy rainfall and an increasing risk for flooding given
observed rainfall from this morning and an increasingly moist
airmass (both Pacific and Gulf connections).
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
Water vapor was showing large upper level closed system centered
around Nevada with large Pacific moisture plume streaming from
south of the low into the southern/central Plains into the mid
Mississippi valley region. Convection developed during the mid to
late evening in the Plains as pieces over shortwave energy have
ejected out of the upper low along with a jet streak. In addition,
a 30 to 45 kt low level jet has set up from the southern into
central Plains. This convection has advanced into western Missouri
early into the overnight hours, however most of the lightning
strikes remain west of our CWA as instability is still lacking
over the area. Joplin has picked up around .13 of an inch in the
past hour.
Our main focus in the short term (today and tonight) will be with
convection and precipitation amounts. Several waves of
precipitation will be possible through Thursday as the upper low
slowly progresses eastward towards the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
For today...first batch of convection (currently occurring over
the western CWA) is expected to track east across the CWA. Will
probably see scattered lightning strikes with this activity, but
overall instability will remain low and not expecting much in the
way of strong or severe storms with this first wave. Decent
precipitation totals will be possible with some locations
receiving between a half inch to inch. Isolated higher amounts
will be possible, with the higher totals expected over the
northwest half of the CWA.
There will probably be a lull in activity from late in the day
through much of the evening before convection redevelops over the
northwestern CWA during the late evening and overnight hours. If
we could get enough instability, there may be some elevated
hailers with this activity, but overall severe chances look to be
on the low side with the better instability remaining to the west.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
The upper level system will begin to move into the Plains on
Wednesday with strong southerly winds continuing out ahead of this
system across the CWA. Best instability will remain south of the
area late Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of the approaching
cold front, but convection ahead of the front during this time
frame into Thursday will offer our best chance of stronger to
possibly severe storms. No problem with the shear profiles with
this dynamic system, but the instability still looks to be on the
weaker side for any widespread severe risk. The bulk of the
precipitation should move through by 18z Thu with the pre-frontal
trough as drier air begins to work in from the west behind this.
Total clearing should take place by Thursday evening.
Widespread storm total QPF values of 1 to 3 inches are being
forecast with this slower moving system as the Pacific moisture
stream will be ongoing for much of the event, and eventual
increase in Gulf moisture as well. For now will continue the trend
of limited risk of flooding for the northwest half of the CWA
which will have the higher expectant QPF.
Generally quiet weather is expected after the passage of this
system from Thursday night through the weekend. May start to see
precipitation chances increase by early next week as another
larger trough begins to push into the Plains.
&&
.AVIATION...
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor for low flight conditions this morning and again
late tonight.
A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms was progressing over
eastern Kansas and much of Missouri this morning. Low ceilings and
visibilities were observed at many locations, including Joplin,
Springfield, and Branson.
Additional IFR and MVFR conditions are expected this morning,
prior to improving by mid day, as the rain shifts east of the
region. Once the rain moves out of the Ozarks, expect mostly dry
weather through the afternoon, as southerly breezes persist at
around 10 mph.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late
tonight and into Wednesday morning. If a thunderstorms track over
one of the airports, then low flight conditions can be expected.
The intermittent stormy weather will continue into Thursday. Safe
Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
THE DEEP H500 MB UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WRN WY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE STRENGTHENING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM 850 MB TO
700 MB AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG DRY SLOW WORKING
INTO THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 850-700MB DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL NOSES INTO WYOMING TONIGHT...STEEPENING
LAPSES MIGHT SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT
700 MB IN THESE AREAS COOL TO -2C TO -4C WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT
RAPID SNOW GROWTH AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AT 850MB...ALL MODELS ARE ABOVE FREEZING 1C TO 4C...FREEZING RAIN
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY THREAT.
NOTE THE BEST GUESS AT MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING PRODUCED
LOWS NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A FREEZING LINE RUNNING
FROM ROUGHLY BIG SPRINGS TO AINSWORTH. HIGHS TODAY RISE TO THE MID
30S ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THE RAP MODEL PRODUCED
HIGHS AROUND 33 IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR SHOWED 35F.
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT...IT WOULD APPEAR ABOUT 8 TO
10 HOURS OF SUBFREEZING WEATHER COULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SHERIDAN AND
CHERRY COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK AROUND NOON IN THIS AREA AND WE ARE FORECASTING WARMER LOWS
TONIGHT THAN ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...FOG COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT BUT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AS SUGGESTED IN THE 850-700MB MOISTURE FIELDS. DRIZZLE WOULD APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE PRECIPITATION MODE WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GFS
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
OTHER MODELS DO THE SAME BUT ARE FARTHER EAST FAVORING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEB WITH THIS RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKES THE GFS IS MAINTAINING A
STRONGLY BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM FOR EXAMPLE VEERS
THE 850 WINDS A BIT MORE TOWARD ERN NEB. THE 305K ISENTROPIC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN BOTH MODELS IS DIRECTED TOWARD EASTERN
AND CNTL NEB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. REALLY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SNOW...AS ALL MODELS KEEP TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ABOVE FREEZING. AT
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WARRANTS A THUNDER MENTION DURING THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS NORTHEAST...ENDING
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES BOOSTING
HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AND WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH UPSLOPE MOISTURE
HOLDING CEILINGS LOW. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SWRN U.S....WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO WYOMING. AS THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS SHOULD REDEVELOP. FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004-005-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1019 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL BE ERODED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC RAP HOLDS NEARLY THE ENTIRE STRATUS FIELD
THIS MORNING IN PLACE...WHILE THE 12 UTC NAM SUGGESTS SOME
CLEARING NORTH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...HOWEVER...LEANED CLOSER TO THE
RAP GIVEN WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA AT 6 AM CDT WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. LOWS HERE FELL INTO THE TEENS. SKIES WERE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL HAS NOW
DISSIPATED. HAVE UPDATED POPS THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SO
BROUGHT IN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING
THE MORNING AND KEPT THE CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD CLOUD OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES ANTICIPATED DIMINISHING SNOWFALL
THIS MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIP TYPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AT 3 AM CDT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE ROCKIES NEAR
NEVADA/IDAHO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...THE FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LIGHT SNOW FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM
EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA APPEARED TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...EXCEPT FOR AN ENHANCED AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WAS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE HRRR 3KM REFLECTIVITY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THAT MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
HRRR DIMINISHES THE SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NOTHING
AFTER DAYBREAK/12Z. THE MODEL INDICATES SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BY 6 AM MDT THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST TO WYOMING AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THUS THE MODELS WERE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION VERY CLOSE TO THE ND BORDER IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO THE 30S...BUT
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR
SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER WYOMING WITH CONTINUED
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT CONTINUES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT WARM ADVECTION LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS/EC AND GLOBAL
GEM ALL PRODUCING QPF OVER OUR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. BY THIS TIME ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE EVENING WE COULD AGAIN SEE A MIXED BAG
OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN A
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING US BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S. HAVE STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY SECTOR...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW COLD ADVECTION RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR MOST TAF SITES TODAY. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 12 UTC TAF PERIOD
FOR KDIK. OTHERWISE...VFR STRATUS WILL LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT AT
KJMS/KBIS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
641 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA AT 6 AM CDT WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. LOWS HERE FELL INTO THE TEENS. SKIES WERE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL HAS NOW
DISSIPATED. HAVE UPDATED POPS THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SO
BROUGHT IN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING
THE MORNING AND KEPT THE CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD CLOUD OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES ANTICIPATED DIMINISHING SNOWFALL
THIS MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIP TYPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AT 3 AM CDT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE ROCKIES NEAR
NEVADA/IDAHO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...THE FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LIGHT SNOW FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM
EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA APPEARED TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...EXCEPT FOR AN ENHANCED AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WAS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE HRRR 3KM REFLECTIVITY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THAT MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
HRRR DIMINISHES THE SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NOTHING
AFTER DAYBREAK/12Z. THE MODEL INDICATES SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BY 6 AM MDT THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST TO WYOMING AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THUS THE MODELS WERE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION VERY CLOSE TO THE ND BORDER IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO THE 30S...BUT
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR
SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER WYOMING WITH CONTINUED
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT CONTINUES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT WARM ADVECTION LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS/EC AND GLOBAL
GEM ALL PRODUCING QPF OVER OUR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. BY THIS TIME ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE EVENING WE COULD AGAIN SEE A MIXED BAG
OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN A
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING US BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S. HAVE STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY SECTOR...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW COLD ADVECTION RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
AT 630 AM CDT...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
BORDERS OF MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING. THESE 2 FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TODAY.
MVFR CIGS WERE WEST OF KISN IN NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THUS PUT A
TEMPO GROUP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AT KISN/KDIK. OTHERWISE VFR
AT KBIS/KJMS/KMOT.
LATER THIS TUESDAY EVENING A LARGE AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUDINESS SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWARD BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AFT 02Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
953 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RACE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
EAST COAST BY TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
LAKE HURON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING FOG NEAR MNN WILL
DISSIPATE SOON. DIFFUSE WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WV AND OHIO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD EVENING. HRRR TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT DTX AND ILN. HAVE
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHAT IS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TODAY WILL TREND TOWARD THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL THEN ALLOW A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL STILL REMAIN QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD SET
THE MOTION OF THE WARM FRONT TO HEAD NORTH TOWARD THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING WITH
IT AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.
NOW...THERE IS SOME HINT THAT A DRY SLOT MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE NON EXISTENT
BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE PRODUCING NIL
CAPE. HOWEVER...I DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAT WITH DAY
TIME HEATING...TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP UP ABOUT 4 TO 5 DEGREES. THIS
WILL HELP TO PRODUCE ENOUGH CAPE AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE FAIRLY HIGH HELICITY VALUES
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING
THUNDERSTORMS. SO...IF ANY THING DEVELOPS THURSDAY...IT WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY THREATS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BUT
WITH THE HIGH HELICITY POTENTIAL...THERE COULD BE A HIGHER THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ENDING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. COLD AIR MASS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONLY BE KNOCKED DOWN A PEG OR TWO. THE TRUE COLD FRONT DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY. A RETURN TO WINTER WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THAT WILL CAUSE A
THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE SNOW BELT AREA...BECAUSE THE MOISTURE AND OMEGA IS
BEST. ON SATURDAY NIGHT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW MIX...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA. ON SUNDAY THE
AIR MASS IS DRYING OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FORM
THE WEST...HOWEVER...A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY
OVER NW PA. FOR MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DRY
WEATHER. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS WILL BE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST
OR EAST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SATELLITE
PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE ERIE.
THE QUESTION IS WILL THOSE CLOUDS MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT SOME CEILINGS COULD FORM MAINLY ALONG THE
LAKESHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME FOG WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z/10 AM EDT.
AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ANY REMAINING LOW
CLOUDS WILL GO AWAY AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE LEFT. SOME MID
CLOUDS WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON-VFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AND MAINLY AROUND THE SNOWBELT FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES TODAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY
FRIDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME EAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TODAY...SO NO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THE NEXT THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY IN A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CONDITIONS
SHOULD MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THEN EARLY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WHEN THE COLD ADVECTION STARTS. CONDITIONS COULD BE
CLOSE TO GALES FOR SHORT TIME EARLY FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ON THE EDGE WHETHER WILL COULD HAVE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
WARM ADVECTION. OTHERWISE THE CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06 AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXIST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL MIX OUT BY 14Z OR
15Z. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND 00Z...BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT LRD THROUGH THE
EVENING. LLJ OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW...BUT MVFR STRATUS WILL AGAIN BE COMMON.
CEILINGS MAY FALL BELOW MVFR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE LOWER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK
INTO SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE SHORT TERM. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT BUT ANTICIPATE THE LOW
CLOUDS TO MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RUN HRRR PICKING UP
ON SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED A 10
POP WITH MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH 18Z. UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY...INTO FOUR
CORNERS REGION ON WEDNESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING BY THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TO
LOWER 90S OUT WEST. ON WEDNESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GET DRAWN
INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SE AND SSE.
PW VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 2 INCHES (2.1 INCHES IF THE GFS
VERIFIES) AS DISTURBANCE SCOOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE WEAKEST. POPS RANGE FROM
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TO LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT
OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. YET ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THURSDAY/S FROPA.
MARINE/COASTAL...ONSHORE FLOW BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS TODAY AS GRADIENT STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL CLIMB TO 7 TO 8 FEET OVER THE
WATERS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERN BAYS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE AN SCA AT THIS TIME. REGARDING THE RIP CURRENT RISK...
SWELLS APPEAR TO BE FINALLY LOWERING A BIT...BUT THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED WARRANT CONTINUING THE RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT FOR NOW. IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE...THEN LATER SHIFTS MAY
CANCEL EARLY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH S TX ON THU...WITH
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. WED NIGHT AHD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS PROG PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS S TX. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE IS PROGD TO COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO
PRODUCE SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRAS ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE TOO STRONG ACROSS THE SRN CWA WED
NIGHT...HOWEVER AM STILL EXPECTING ISOLD PRECIP DUE TO ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ABV THE INVERSION. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGD TO BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE NRN CWA BTWN 15-18Z THU. THE VCT CROSSROADS HAS THE
HIGHEST POPS DUE TO LITTLE TO NO CAP...HIGHEST CAPE AND PROXIMITY TO
THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW STRONGEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NE CWA. STRONGEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE NE OF THE CWA (ACROSS EAST TX AND LA AND EXTENDING NE) WHERE THE
STORMS PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 3. THE NE
CWA COULD BE ON THE TAIL END OF THE STRONGER STORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SVR. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...HVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NE
CWA...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS PROGD TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY RESULTING IN
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN 2 INCHES FOR THE EVENT. ISOLD
AMOUNTS COULD BE 2-2.5 INCHES. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF THE FRONT
SLOWS OR STALLS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN VCT TO CRP...THEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD BE MUCH HIGHER INTO THU EVENING DURING HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES.
TSRA CHCS ARE LOWER TO THE W DUE TO STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER OVERALL
DYNAMICS...BUT STILL SHOULD BE SCT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOTALING
0.5-1 INCH. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE...SO WILL THE CONVECTION BUT THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THU EVENING...IF THE
FRONT DOES NOT SLOW DOWN. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL ELEVATED -SHRAS BRIEFLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO S TX ON
FRI WITH REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE MVG INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLRG SKIES AND MILD MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHCS BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 75 87 76 86 / 10 20 30 30 50
VICTORIA 87 73 84 72 82 / 10 20 70 60 70
LAREDO 92 76 93 77 90 / 10 10 20 20 40
ALICE 89 73 89 74 87 / 10 20 30 30 40
ROCKPORT 86 76 84 76 85 / 10 20 40 40 70
COTULLA 90 74 88 72 85 / 10 10 30 40 40
KINGSVILLE 89 75 90 76 87 / 10 20 30 30 40
NAVY CORPUS 85 77 86 78 84 / 10 20 30 30 40
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
TB/78...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
925 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXTENDED FROM VIRGINIA TO A LOW IN KANSAS
MISSOURI...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT OR ERODE WITH MIXING AND
HEATING THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK SOUNDING SHOWED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO CUT BACK ON MORNING POPS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS
FOR THIS MORNING. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AIR MASS
WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS. SCATTERED RAIN NORTH OF BLUEFIELD
AND ROANOKE EARLY THIS MORNING WAS MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. DO
NOT THINK THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT JUST
BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT
TONIGHT AROUND THE 290K LEVEL. EXPECT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...AGAIN WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY WAS
TOO WARM IN THIS AREA. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE USED A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED ADJMET/ADJMAV NUMBERS.
850 MB START OUT FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH
TONIGHT. WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LIMITED DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGES. STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT WE
WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. MINOR DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE WEST WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS GENERALLY WITH LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...LEAVING THE MID
ATLANTIC SITUATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW THE WARMUP TO CONTINUE...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 7OS FURTHER
EAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STUCK CLOSER TO
THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO TIMING OF THE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALL OF WHICH FAVOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WHEN FACTORING IN A DELAYED ONSET TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BELIEVE THAT THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LIKELY ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS HOWEVER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CAPE/INSTABILITY AS
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST...BUT
VERY HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY AS A 50KT TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. BELIEVE THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY STRONG
SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT THAT THE STRONGER SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRAWING SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE
HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ALSO MEAN THAT ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL HAVE A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS THE SMOOTHER
TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...IF TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS DELAYED ANY...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING.
MILD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
TRULY COLDER AIR NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING OF SKIES EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THE FLOW WILL BE UPSLOPE AND EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...ACCOMPANYING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA.
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL CARRY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY TO
AROUND THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS 850 MB WINDS WEAKEN
AND VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COMBINATION OF WEAK UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA PRODUCED ENOUGH LIFT
FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIMITED MIXING WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF STRATUS AND
FOG THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB BEFORE THROUGH 15Z/11AM. LATEST
LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTED IT WOULD TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING FOR
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT THESE SITES.
KROA/KLYH AND KDAN WILL BE VFR TODAY. THE WEAK FRONT PASSED SOUTH
OF KLYH AT 09Z/5AM AS INDICATED BY THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS WAS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE MSAS ANALYSIS OF
LIFTED INDEX VALUES.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY AND
REACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. TAF SITES IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER 05Z/1AM WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH WITH THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. FOR NOT HAVE ADDED R- TO THE KBCB/KLWB AND
KBLF TAF OVERNIGHT.
MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL -SHRA IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONT THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSYBS AS
WELL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
315 PM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG JET ON ITS EAST SIDE STRETCHING FROM
SOUTHWEST AZ NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF CO. ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SEE A NICE SIGNAL OF A SHORTWAVE ALSO MOVING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AZ. A NICE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND ECHOES IS
DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FORCING FROM CENTRAL AZ INTO
SW CO AND THERE IS EVEN SOME LIGHTNING SHOWING UP NOW. THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPLITS WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION HEADING INTO WY AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION TOWARDS
LAS VEGAS OVERNIGHT. THEN THE ENTIRE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS COLORADO
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF SHORTER TERM MODELS
HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE DEVELOPING BAND OF
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING IT FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND THEN THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE FIRST SLUG OF
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LARIMER COUNTY
BEGINNING BY ABOUT 01 TO 02Z. THEN THE BAND EXPANDS SOUTHWARD INTO
BOULDER COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY TO A LESSER EXTENT JEFFERSON COUNTY.
AGAIN INITIALLY PRECIP WOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THEN
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW WESTERN PORTION OF THE PLAINS.
COULD BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME OF THE FOOTHILLS OF
WESTERN BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
HOIST ANY KIND OF ADVISORY. AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT IS NOT VERY GOOD SO AMOUNTS UP TO SEVERAL INCHES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY LIMITS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BAND OF
MORE RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN. BEST CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE WEST OF I-25 GENERALLY THOUGH
FARTHER EAST AS WE GET INTO LARIMER COUNTY. STILL A TRICKY CALL
WITHOUT ANY REAL UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF NOTE SO DO NOT WANT TO GET
TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH AMOUNTS BUT DYNAMICS ARE CERTAINLY STRONG
ENOUGH.
FOR TOMORROW AS NOTED TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS AREA LATER IN THE
DAY WHILE AT THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE
FLOW WHICH PUSHES MORE NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW DEVELOPING THERE DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOSER TO ANY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS OUT. OTHERWISE MAYBE
SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND BUT NOT MUCH EXPECTED ON THE
PLAINS HOWEVER SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WITH THE CENTER OF
THE TROUGH.
.LONG TERM...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QG
LIFT...COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUM ON WEST-NORTHWEST
FACING MTN SLOPES. ON THE PLAINS...ANOTHER AREA OF QG FORCING
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WEDNESDAY EVENING ALSO WARRANTS
MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SNOW IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST.
OVERNIGHT...UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY. MODELS SHOW WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN SPEED
OVER AND ALONG THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT RANGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. CROSS MOUNTAIN WIND COMPONENT AT MTN TOP PEAKS
IN THE 30-45KT THURSDAY MORNING DURING THE PD OF STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION. DOWNSLOPE SLOPE DRIES OUT PLAINS AIRMASS BUT SAME
NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HOWEVER...ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH DEPTH OF MOISTURE
DECREASING. BY THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SWINGING DOWN FROM WESTERN WYOMING AND POSSIBLY REGENERATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. MAY ALSO SEE SOME BANDED LIGHT PRECIP
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE PLAINS...AND MOST LIKELY ENDING
BEFORE MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH MARCHES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY MTN REGION CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM AND PROVIDING PLENTY
OF CLEAR SKIES. FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE WINDY IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. COULD SEE WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING
55 MPH IN THE FOOTHILLS AND 45 MPH ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SPEEDS WOULD NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH WIND WATCH. SHOULD
SEE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY DECOUPLING FOR THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN A RAPID DROP OFF IN SFC WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
EVENING.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A
PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM/UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY DIVING IN OVER WYOMING
AND NORTHWEST COLORADO ON MONDAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE PACKING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF COLD AIR. SHOULD THIS SYSTEM PROGRESS AS MODELS
INDICATE COULD SEE 24-36 HOURS OF WINTRY WEATHER IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY...AND POSSIBLY ON THE PLAINS. HENCE THE CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES HAVE GOTTEN CLOSE TO DIA BUT NOW CLOUD
LINE IS SHIFTING SOUTH AGAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A MODEST DENVER CYCLONE. SO CONTINUE LOW CLOUDS BUT FOG SHOULD
STAY AWAY TONIGHT WHILE EVENTUALLY BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES ONTO
THE PLAINS CHANGING TO SNOW LATE...MOST LIKELY FOR ANY SNOW AT
BJC.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE FOOTHILLS
ESPECIALLY OF BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTIES OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT AND QUITE A BIT LESS IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1100 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.UPDATE...UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN NEVADA
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT AND A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET ON ITS EAST SIDE STRETCHING FROM NW COLORADO BACK TO FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE JET IS SUPPORTING ONE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION NOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL COLORADO THAT IS HEADING MORE
TO THE NORTH OF BOU FORECAST AREA. THE JET CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN IS OVER EASTERN COLORADO TONIGHT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD. SO
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY INCREASING LATER IN THE DAY AND THEN
OVERNIGHT AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORABLE.
ON THE PLAINS TRICKY FORECAST FOR CLOUDINESS WITH ERROSION OF
CLOUDS NOW ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AM
UPDATING THE GRIDS RIGHT NOW FOR THIS. SOME ERROSION FROM THE WEST
TOO BUT EXPECT A GRADUALLY INCREASING BUT STILL WEAKISH DENVER
CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE LOWER CLOUDS
SOCKED IN OVER MOST OF THE LOWER PLAINS. VISIBILITIES THOUGH ARE
IMPROVING AND WILL DROP THE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
MAY TWEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR A LITTLE COOLER NORTH AND
SLIGHTLY MILDER FAR SOUTH ON THE PLAINS.
STILL ASSESSING SITUATION FOR TONIGHT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
NAM CONSISTENT IN POINTING TO BEST CHANCE OF A BAND OF PRECIP WITH
SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOME RAIN TO SNOW PLAINS MORE FROM
BOULDER COUNTY NORTHWARDS. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT
BUT COULD BE A FEW INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS PER THE
LATTEST RAP AND HRRR RUNS.
&&
.AVIATION...AMENDED TAFS FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND GRADUAL
LIFTING OF CEILINGS TODAY. AT THIS TIME ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF DIA TONIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
BOULDER AND LARIMER COUNTY OVERNIGHT WITH THE BAND NOTED ABOVE AND
SOME SNOW IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS BUT FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013/
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JUST ISSUED A SHORT FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF COLORADO/S NORTHEAST PLAINS. VISIBILITIES HAS
CONTINUED TO VARY FROM 1/4 TO 1 MILE AT SEVERAL LOCALES IN
MORGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDQWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...AS WELL AS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ADAMS...ARAPAHOE AND WELD COUNTIES. AND WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 0C...GOOD BET THERE/S SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND FREEZING FOG OUT THERE. SO ROAD SURFCES MAY BE ICY IN AREAS.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013/
SHORT TERM...ELONGATED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT...PUSHING AREAS OF LIFT OVER COLORADO. DURING THE
DAY TODAY THERE WILL BE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK LIFTING
OUT OF THE TROUGH. THIS IS MOVING OVER RATHER DRY MID LEVEL
AIR...BUT IS HELPING WITH THE SHOWERS ON THE WESTERN COLORADO
BORDER AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THE BAROCLINIC BAND WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD BE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BE MOVING INTO/DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOME OF THIS SHOULD SURVIVE ONTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A LITTLE
COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS...ENOUGH TO CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ON THE PLAINS WE HAVE OTHER ISSUES AS THE SATURATED COOL AIR IS
NOT AS SHALLOW AS IT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE. IT GOT UP BETWEEN 9 AND
10 THOUSAND FEET ON THE EAST SLOPE OF THE FRONT RANGE. DESPITE THE
STRONG SW WINDS ABOVE IT THERE IS NOT MUCH SIGN OF
DISPLACEMENT...JUST A FEW HINTS OF WEST WINDS RIGHT AT THE TOP
AROUND THE 9000 FOOT LEVEL. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE COOL AIR
REMAIN NORTHEAST...INSTEAD OF BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS EXPECTED...AND
THE MOISTURE HAS PUSHED FAR TO THE SOUTH...ALMOST TO OKLAHOMA. SO
WHILE THERE IS DRY AIR AND WIND ABOVE THE CLOUDS...THERE IS NOT
MUCH GOING ON AT LOW LEVELS TO CHANGE THE SITUATION. IN FACT...THE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BRINGING IN WARMER BUT STILL
SATURATED AIR WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE DAY. THERE MAY YET
BE SOME SCOURING FROM ABOVE BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS IS
LOOKING PRETTY UNLIKELY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
76...AND QUESTIONABLE EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH THE ELEVATION OF
THE PALMER DIVIDE MAY HELP. I DROPPED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES
IN MOST AREAS AND ADDED MORE DRIZZLE WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT. FOR TONIGHT ON THE PLAINS...IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN WITH ANY SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING...AND PROBABLY STAY THAT WAY BUT WITH THE COOLING ALOFT
AND POSSIBLY NOT BEING MUCH ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE TO BEGIN
WITH THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CHANCE OF SNOW. WILL MENTION A
MIX FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...ON WEDNESDAY AT 12Z...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING DOWN INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS
OVER THE EASTERN COLORADO BORDER AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE THE REST OF THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UPWARD Q-G VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED OVER
THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...DOWNWARD MOTION IS
PROGGED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS
BENIGN. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK UPSLOPE ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEY BECOME DOWNSLOPING AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR
MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT....BUT MORE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME. THINGS DRY OUT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE QPF FIELDS DO SHOW SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MOST AREAS HAVE SOME...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS STILL LIMITED AMOUNTS PROGGED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP 30-60% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS ALL
FOUR PERIODS...AND 0-30%S OVER THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PLAINS WILL SEE RAIN FROM THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR TEMPERATURES...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY`S HIGHS LOOK CLOSE TO WHAT TODAY`S WILL BE. FOR THE
LATER DAYS...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GET INTO
COLORADO WITH ZONAL FLOW FOR THE CWA SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN UTAH/WESTERN COLORADO. THERE WILL STILL
BE LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THEN IT WILL DRY EVERYWHERE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN SOME MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN CWA
MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LAST LONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
STILL LIKELY...AND MVFR MAY LAST UNTIL THE TROUGH PASSES TONIGHT.
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE VERY LIGHT...PRECIP TYPE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT IN THE DENVER AREA. IF THERE IS SNOW THE
THREAT OF ACCUMULATION ON RUNWAYS IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SZOKE
LONG TERM....RJK
AVIATION...SZOKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH RAIN POTENTIAL AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH SPLIT BUT MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES WEST-EAST
FROM KANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER NORTH...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER FORCING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/MISSOURI
AND DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH MAINLY
JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS MORE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM UPSTREAM...
AS NOTED IN LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH. SOME
POTENTIAL PROBABLY EXISTS FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO FROM OUR DEVELOPING
MID-DECK LATER TODAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED MEASURABLE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW WITH THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE NOT
PRODUCING QPF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AS THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ON
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHER THAN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE SUPPORT IS NOTED AND
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RENEWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL MODELS DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER
40-50 KT 850 MB JET IS INDICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IMPINGES ON
THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LIFTS NORTH...SUGGESTING RAPIDLY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...AND SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S...SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RISES IN CHECK DESPITE WARMING
ALOFT TODAY. WARMER TEMPS...IN THE 60S...WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY. RISING TEMPS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY-MONDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOL ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IN SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER INITIALLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER
AIR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVE THE
HIGH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS SETS UP ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SOUTH FLOW AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST ON
MONDAY. TEMPS COOL TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
MODERATING MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* WINDS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION BETWEEN ENE TO SSE.
* LOWERING CIG TREND...WITH MVFR LIKELY SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
EXPECT FAIRLY STEADY STATE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR UNDULATIONS IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES HELPING TO HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD DOWN TO MVFR SOMETIME WEDNESDAY MORNING...THOUGH TIMING IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN...AS SOME MODELS HOLD OFF MVFR UNTIL LATE IN THE
MORNING. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT ALBEIT WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING...
MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS ABSENT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PERSISTENT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH MID EVENING. THAT
SAID...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST RIDING UP THE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LEAD TO THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WITHIN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE AREA...AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE VCSH IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS ARE PRETTY UNLIKELY...AND A
VCSH MIGHT EVEN BE A STRETCH. IF CIGS BUILD DOWN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN DRIZZLE MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL CIG TRENDS...LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING CATEGORY CHANGE.
* LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IMPACTING TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA W/ CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...SHRA W/ CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
418 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH A SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS SITUATED. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT EAST
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WHILE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THESE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30KT. ONCE
AGAIN...ITS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME
WHEN GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME
FRAME AND IF INCREASING TRENDS OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
RUNS...POSSIBLE GALES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME WEST STILL HOLDING AT 30 KT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THAT DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Large rain shield advancing eastward across Missouri, but the
eastern edge is being chewed up by the dry air that is currently
in place over Illinois. Initial radar returns will go toward
moistening up the column from the top down, so it will probably be
toward early afternoon before any steadier rains arrive in our
forecast area, and then it will be most likely south of I-72. Have
left slight chance PoP`s in across the northeast third of the CWA
for now, although latest guidance from the NAM/RAP/HRRR models is
indicating that any rain today will likely remain to the south,
and would probably hold off until mid or late afternoon if it does
manage to get that far north.
Have sent some updated zones/grids to freshen up the temperature
and rain trends, although no significant changes were made.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Incoming rain shield has been eroding on the leading edge due to
the dry air currently in place, so will continue to limit any rain
mention to VCSH at KPIA/KSPI and keep eastern TAFs dry for now.
Main concern will be tonight, as ceilings lower below 3000 feet
this evening from south to north, then are likely to drop to IFR
range after 06Z, with the highest chances of this occurring at
KSPI and KPIA. Drier air aloft will limit overnight precip chances
to mainly some drizzle or very light showers. Ceilings should
begin to come up Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts northward
through central Illinois. Will maintain MVFR ceilings through the
morning, although areas from KSPI-KCMI may see them lift above
3000 feet by late morning.
Geelhart
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Main challenges with this forecast package are rain chances today
through Thursday and the potential for severe weather Thursday
afternoon.
Current upper air pattern features the main branch of the polar
jet flowing well to the north across central and eastern Canada.
Further southwest, a deep closed low has become cut-off from the
flow and is now meandering eastward across the Great Basin. This
low will be the dominant weather-maker across central Illinois for
the next several days as it slowly makes its way eastward.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Weak frontal boundary that dropped into the area yesterday
afternoon has now become stationary just north of the Ohio River.
To the north of the front, a dry E/NE flow prevails across central
Illinois early this morning, with 07z/2am dewpoints mainly in the
30s. This dry airmass will inhibit the eastward spread of precip
currently developing ahead of a weak short-wave trough over the
Plains. The onset of precip has been gradually delayed with each
model run over the past couple of days, with the 00z Oct 29 suite
now keeping the KILX CWA dry until afternoon. HRRR suggests light
showers may arrive in the Winchester/Jacksonville area around
midday, then will spread eastward to the Indiana border toward
evening. Will therefore go with a dry forecast this morning, then
will focus highest POPs across the southern CWA in closer proximity
to the stalled front this afternoon. Further north toward the I-74
corridor, little or no precip is expected today. Once this initial
wave passes, short-wave ridging in its wake will keep rain
chances low tonight. Despite lack of upper forcing, moistening
airmass and presence of surface boundary support low chance POPs
through the night.
As Great Basin upper low begins to approach from the west, surface
front will get nudged northward on Wednesday. Thanks to southerly
winds south of the boundary, afternoon high temperatures will rise
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon,
particularly along/west of the Illinois River.
Main rain/convective event is still slated for Wednesday night
into Thursday as strong cold front approaches from the west.
Models are generally in good agreement with their mass fields, but
still have some minor differences in QPF. As boundary nears,
copious amounts of moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of
Mexico, with precipitable water values nearing 1.50 on Thursday.
Given ample moisture, strong upper dynamics, and presence of
approaching cold front, will carry likely to categorical POPs
across the board Wednesday night and Thursday. Total rainfall with
this system will generally range from 1 to 1.50, with isolated
higher amounts within stronger storms.
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon as the front swings through the region:
however, details remain uncertain at this point. NAM/GFS forecast
soundings indicate a low CAPE/high shear environment in the warm
sector ahead of the front, with the greatest instability focused
further southeast from the Ohio River Valley to the western Gulf
Coast. Latest DAY 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights this
area for potential severe, but can not rule out a few strong
storms with damaging wind gusts further north across east-central
and southeast Illinois, particularly given impressive 0-6km bulk
shear values of 70 to 75kt.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Cooler and drier weather will return by the end of the week, as
upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. GFS/ECMWF both suggest
clouds and a few showers will be possible across northeast
Illinois into north-central Indiana Friday into Saturday: however,
think these will remain northeast of central Illinois. High
pressure building into the Midwest will be the dominant weather
feature in the extended, resulting in cool highs in the 50s Friday
through Monday. Next chance for rain will likely hold off until
Tuesday when another system approaches from the west.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1104 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
337 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE WITH RAIN POTENTIAL AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN THIS MORNING IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH SPLIT BUT MAINLY ZONAL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WHICH STRETCHES WEST-EAST
FROM KANSAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. FARTHER NORTH...AN ELONGATED AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.
THE PLAINS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER FORCING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/MISSOURI
AND DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...WITH MAINLY
JUST MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS MORE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM UPSTREAM...
AS NOTED IN LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON OH. SOME
POTENTIAL PROBABLY EXISTS FOR A SPRINKLE OR TWO FROM OUR DEVELOPING
MID-DECK LATER TODAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT ORGANIZED MEASURABLE
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN PRETTY LOW WITH THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE NOT
PRODUCING QPF. IT DOES APPEAR THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AS THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ON
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS. OTHER THAN MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT ON THE NOSE OF A 20-25 KT LOW LEVEL
JET TONIGHT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE SUPPORT IS NOTED AND
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY RISE A BIT WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT.
GUIDANCE DOES BRING SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE TRENDS.
THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH RENEWED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SEVERAL MODELS DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING THE CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER
40-50 KT 850 MB JET IS INDICATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH IMPINGES ON
THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LIFTS NORTH...SUGGESTING RAPIDLY
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION...PWATS
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...AND SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
50S...SUPPORT FAIRLY HIGH POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND EAST-SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RISES IN CHECK DESPITE WARMING
ALOFT TODAY. WARMER TEMPS...IN THE 60S...WILL SPREAD NORTH WITH THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY. RISING TEMPS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...FRIDAY-MONDAY...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COOL ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW IN SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER INITIALLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER
AIR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS MOVE THE
HIGH QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THIS SETS UP ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SOUTH FLOW AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY WEST ON
MONDAY. TEMPS COOL TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
MODERATING MONDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* -SHRA MOVING NEAR THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
MVFR STRATUS PERSISTING PRIMARILY OVER ORD EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH ORD BEING IN A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR PERSISTENT
DEVELOPMENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
BEFORE THESE CEILINGS LIFT NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. SHOULD ONLY
AFFECT ORD...BUT COULD COME CLOSE TO DPA AS THIS LIFTS NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING AT 1500FT...WITH THEM NOT
ANTICIPATED TO LOWER ANY FURTHER. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LOW
STRATUS...ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM TO
THE WEST. SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT PRECIP
SHIELD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR
RFD...IT DOES APPEAR AS IF BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
OF THE TERMINALS AND LIKEWISE PRECIP AXIS. ALTHOUGH FURTHER
SATURATION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING OVER
THE TERMINALS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH CEILINGS/TRENDS TODAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION...LOW CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS.
* LOW MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH -SHRA/TRENDS TONIGHT.
RODRIGUEZ/BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHRA W/ CHANCE OF TSRA.
THURSDAY...SHRA W/ CHANCE OF TSRA.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
418 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH A SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35
KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE LAKE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE CENTER OF LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAINS SITUATED. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT EAST
WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT WHILE TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT. DESPITE THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY RELAXED GRADIENT OVER THE LAKE WILL HELP
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THESE
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 30KT. ONCE
AGAIN...ITS DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIME FRAME
WHEN GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TIME
FRAME AND IF INCREASING TRENDS OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FORECAST
RUNS...POSSIBLE GALES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME WEST STILL HOLDING AT 30 KT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THAT DAY.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP HARBOR TO GARY IN UNTIL 3 PM
TUESDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
956 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 955 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Large rain shield advancing eastward across Missouri, but the
eastern edge is being chewed up by the dry air that is currently
in place over Illinois. Initial radar returns will go toward
moistening up the column from the top down, so it will probably be
toward early afternoon before any steadier rains arrive in our
forecast area, and then it will be most likely south of I-72. Have
left slight chance PoP`s in across the northeast third of the CWA
for now, although latest guidance from the NAM/RAP/HRRR models is
indicating that any rain today will likely remain to the south,
and would probably hold off until mid or late afternoon if it does
manage to get that far north.
Have sent some updated zones/grids to freshen up the temperature
and rain trends, although no significant changes were made.
Geelhart
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
VFR conditions into the afternoon hours, then timing of the
MVFR/IFR cigs late this afternoon across the west and over the
remainder of the area tonight will be the main forecast challenge.
Band of showers over Missouri expected to weaken as it pushes east
into a drier air mass today. None the less, we do expect some
light shower activity to make it at least into the SPI and DEC in
the 15z-18z time frame. Forecast soundings continue to hold with
mainly VFR cigs despite the rain but feel with a persistent
moistening occurring at the mid and low levels of the atmosphere
over the next 12 to 18 hours...we should see deteriorating
conditions with respect to cigs and vsbys...and that would be
especially true for all areas tonight. Surface winds will be
southeast at 10 to 15 kts today and tonight.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2013
Main challenges with this forecast package are rain chances today
through Thursday and the potential for severe weather Thursday
afternoon.
Current upper air pattern features the main branch of the polar
jet flowing well to the north across central and eastern Canada.
Further southwest, a deep closed low has become cut-off from the
flow and is now meandering eastward across the Great Basin. This
low will be the dominant weather-maker across central Illinois for
the next several days as it slowly makes its way eastward.
SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday
Weak frontal boundary that dropped into the area yesterday
afternoon has now become stationary just north of the Ohio River.
To the north of the front, a dry E/NE flow prevails across central
Illinois early this morning, with 07z/2am dewpoints mainly in the
30s. This dry airmass will inhibit the eastward spread of precip
currently developing ahead of a weak short-wave trough over the
Plains. The onset of precip has been gradually delayed with each
model run over the past couple of days, with the 00z Oct 29 suite
now keeping the KILX CWA dry until afternoon. HRRR suggests light
showers may arrive in the Winchester/Jacksonville area around
midday, then will spread eastward to the Indiana border toward
evening. Will therefore go with a dry forecast this morning, then
will focus highest POPs across the southern CWA in closer proximity
to the stalled front this afternoon. Further north toward the I-74
corridor, little or no precip is expected today. Once this initial
wave passes, short-wave ridging in its wake will keep rain
chances low tonight. Despite lack of upper forcing, moistening
airmass and presence of surface boundary support low chance POPs
through the night.
As Great Basin upper low begins to approach from the west, surface
front will get nudged northward on Wednesday. Thanks to southerly
winds south of the boundary, afternoon high temperatures will rise
into the upper 60s and lower 70s. In addition, showers and
thunderstorms will become more widespread during the afternoon,
particularly along/west of the Illinois River.
Main rain/convective event is still slated for Wednesday night
into Thursday as strong cold front approaches from the west.
Models are generally in good agreement with their mass fields, but
still have some minor differences in QPF. As boundary nears,
copious amounts of moisture will advect northward from the Gulf of
Mexico, with precipitable water values nearing 1.50 on Thursday.
Given ample moisture, strong upper dynamics, and presence of
approaching cold front, will carry likely to categorical POPs
across the board Wednesday night and Thursday. Total rainfall with
this system will generally range from 1 to 1.50, with isolated
higher amounts within stronger storms.
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible
Thursday afternoon as the front swings through the region:
however, details remain uncertain at this point. NAM/GFS forecast
soundings indicate a low CAPE/high shear environment in the warm
sector ahead of the front, with the greatest instability focused
further southeast from the Ohio River Valley to the western Gulf
Coast. Latest DAY 3 convective outlook from SPC highlights this
area for potential severe, but can not rule out a few strong
storms with damaging wind gusts further north across east-central
and southeast Illinois, particularly given impressive 0-6km bulk
shear values of 70 to 75kt.
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday
Cooler and drier weather will return by the end of the week, as
upper trough digs across the Great Lakes. GFS/ECMWF both suggest
clouds and a few showers will be possible across northeast
Illinois into north-central Indiana Friday into Saturday: however,
think these will remain northeast of central Illinois. High
pressure building into the Midwest will be the dominant weather
feature in the extended, resulting in cool highs in the 50s Friday
through Monday. Next chance for rain will likely hold off until
Tuesday when another system approaches from the west.
Barnes
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH LATE THURSDAY
AND LIFT NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHALLENGE WILL BE THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 3RD OF THE
CAW AND TEMPERATURES.
19Z VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY AND METARS SHOWED THE THICKEST CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE N AND W. FURTHER S AND E, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE LATEST 19Z LAPS/RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED LLVL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW 850 MBS W/DRY AIR ALOFT. CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY
THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHOWN BY THE RAP BY 03Z LEADING TO CLEARING
AND WINDS DECOUPLING. A S/WV SHOWING IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS FCST
TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MAINE LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE IS FROM
700-500MBS AND THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL AID IN CAPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BY
06Z WHILE TEMPERATURES FURTHER N AND W WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DROPPING OFF BELOW 6 MPH.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE FCST TO BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE N AND W WHILE LOW TO MID 20S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST REGION. THE COAST WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN W/EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S.
IN REGARDS TO THE S/WV MENTIONED ABV, THE LATEST RAP AND NAM
INDICATED SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING W/SOME LIGHT PRECIP EDGING
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 12Z GFS AND GEM SHOWS THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. THE 12Z UA DID SHOW A 30-35KT JETLET AT 700MBS
ASSOCIATED W/THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE ADDED 20-30% FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY
LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE TO LOW ON THIS AND
DECIDED TO KEEP THE WX ELEMENT AS SHOWERS W/THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ARRIVING NEAR OR AFTER 12Z W/TEMPERATURES WARMING. DUE TO
DEWPOINTS BEING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME BRIEF FLAKES OR EVEN SLEET OCCURS AT THE ONSET
OF ANY PRECIP. THE EVENING CREW CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER TONIGHT.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE FCST TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE N AND W AND MID TO
UPPER 40S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES THEN INTO QUEBEC
PROVINCE FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WILL USE A BLEND
OF THE NAM12..GFS40..SREF AND ECMWF FOR POPS AND QPF. FOR
TEMPERATURE WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW BLEND. FOR WINDS HAVE USED
THE MOSG25.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY
THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY THEN CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. HAVE USED
THE SUPPER BLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS. WILL ADJUST WIND GUSTS
USING 150 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FOR FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KCAR/KFVE AND KPQI THIS EVENING AND THEN VFR. FROM KHUL TO
KBHB, IT LOOKS LIKE VFR RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES AS CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE SHORT TERM`S LEAD USING A BLEND
OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS WHICH SHOW AN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE S/WV
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO BE NO HIGHER THAN
3 FT USING THE SWAN GUIDANCE TO INITIALIZE.
SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12
...GFS40 AND ECMWF OUT TO 1200Z FRIDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE
SUPPER BLEND WINDS. WILL LOWER SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THURSDAY NIGHT
BY 10 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. FOR WIND
GUST SPEED HAVE USED 110 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WIND. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT COMBINED SEAS ...MOSTLY COMPOSED OF LOCAL WIND WAVE TO
SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FROM
GULF OF MAINE AND EXTENDS TO SOUTH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WAVE SYSTEM
TO BUILD TO 15 FEET/9-10 SECONDS BY MID DAY FRIDAY. LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY WAVE GROUP WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
118 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A NW FLOW ALF OVER
THE UPR GREAT LKS BTWN UPR TROF CENTERED OVER ERN HUDSON BAY AND A
RDG IN THE PLAINS. SPRAWLING SFC HI PRES/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT AOB
0.25 INCH IS CENTERED OVER THE UPR LKS...BRINGING QUIET WX TO THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH SOME HI CLDS IN THE RRQ OF A 100KT H3 JET MAX ARE
STREAMING INTO THE CWA...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY AND INTO THE
TEENS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER THE SFC HI.
MORE SC DOES LINGER OVER THE E NEAR LK SUP WITH LLVL NW FLOW E OF
THE HI CENTER...AND THESE CLDS HAVE RESTRICTED THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL
IN THIS AREA. LOOKING TO THE W...DESPITE SOME DRY LLVL AIR SHOWN ON
THE 00Z ABERDEEN SDAKOTA AND BISMARK RAOBS...THERE IS AN AREA OF -SN
OVER SRN NDAKOTA AND NRN SDAKOTA. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS
APPEAR TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295-300K SFCS AS WELL AS
A BAND OF H7-75 FGEN UNDER UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF THE H3 JET MAX. AN
UPSLOPE SFC E WIND ALSO APPEARS TO BE AIDING IN THE LLVL MOISTENING
DESPITE THE LLVL DRY AIR FEED OUT OF THE E ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE
SFC HI PRES RDG.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PCPN CHCS OVER UPR MI
RELATED TO THE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE CAUSING SOME -SN IN THE NRN
PLAINS.
TODAY...AS THE UPR JET CORE SHIFTS TO THE E TODAY...EXPECT
THICKENING HI/MID CLDS UNDER ACCOMPANYING UPR DVGC IN THE RRQ OF
THIS FEATURE AS SFC HI PRES RDG HANGS BACK INTO THE UPR LKS. AS THE
FLOW BACKS TO THE SW...ANY LK CLDS OVER THE E SHOULD SHIFT BACK INTO
THE LK. MOST OF THE LARGER SCALE MODELS SHOW SOME PCPN ARRIVING NEAR
THE WI BORDER AFT 18Z AS BAND OF H7-75 FGEN SHIFTS TO THE NE.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HIER RES MODELS SHOW ONLY PATCHY QPF. BIGGEST
IMPEDIMENT WL BE LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR AND ABSENCE OF ANY SGNFT
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT THAT IS AIDING THE LLVL MOISTENING UPSTREAM.
OTHER NEGATIVES INCLUDE QUICK DEPARTURE OF UPR JET CORE TO THE E AFT
18Z AND WEAKENING MID LVL ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SO OPTED TO CUT BACK ON
POPS OVER THE N HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIER POPS FOR SOME -SN/-RA
NEAR THE WI BORDER...ESPECIALLY IN MNM COUNTY/SCENTRAL WITH A LGT
UPSLOPE SE WIND JUST TO THE S OF SFC RDG AXIS. THICKENING CLDS
SHOULD RESTRICT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY...SO TENDED TOWARD THE
LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
TONIGHT...SUPPORT FOR PCPN IN THE EVNG WL FADE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC/UPR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF THE UPR RDG MOVING
NEWD FM THE PLAINS. ENDED THIS LINGERING PCPN OVER MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL BY THE EARLY MRNG HRS ON WED. DESPITE THE VIGOROUS DRYING
ALF...MOST MODEL FCST SDNGS INDICATE MSTR WL LINGER IN THE LOWER
LVLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL WHERE PCPN IS MOST LIKELY TO
FALL TODAY. SO MAINTAINED CLDY CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA...WITH
PARTIAL CLRG OVER THE NW. THE LOWEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR NW WHERE SOME CLRG IS LIKELY. IF THE CLDS BREAK UP
ELSEWHERE...MIN TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN WITH LGT WINDS
UNDER LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MID-UPR LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL TROUGHING LIFTS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES TOWARD EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH DOES NOT EXIT EASTERN CONUS UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEKEND. AS THE LEADING TROUGH LIFTS TOWARD GREAT LAKES...SFC
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY DEVELOPS INTO
1000MB SFC LOW OVER UPR GREAT LAKES BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN DEEPENS
TO 975-980MB LOW BTWN LK SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS IT
HAS LOOKED FOR A WHILE...MAIN PERIOD OF PRECIP...IN THE FORM OF
RAIN...OCCURS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERY PRECIP TAKING OVER IN WAKE OF THE LOW LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SOUNDINGS FOR WEDNESDAY INDICATE MOISTURE BLO H7 WITH MINIMAL LIFT.
THINKING THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE...BUT DO EXPECT CLOUDS
TO THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OUT
AHEAD OF SFC LOW IN THE PLAINS. COULD BE JUST ENOUGH WEAK LIFT AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FORM SOME LGT RAIN LATER IN THE WEST OVER THE
WEST AND SOUTH...NOT A BIG DEAL AT ALL AS PRIMARY AREA OF RAIN WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE CLOUDS...MAX TEMPS
ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW-MID 40S. TEMPS SHOULD THEN STAY STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A BIT SLOWER THAN MODELS SHOWED
24 HR AGO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON NOSE OF 250MB JET STREAK LIFTING
ACROSS UPR LAKES INTERACTS WITH H85 AND H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF SFC-H85 LOWS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN TO SWEEP
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS CWA. EVEN WITH RAIN MOVING THROUGH...PUT
A MENTION OF FOG IN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
AS DWPNTS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL BE RIDING OVER COLDER
GROUND SFC WITH 2 INCH SOIL TEMPS WELL BLO 40 THE LAST WEEK OR SO.
IF THE RAIN EXITS QUICKER...THEN THE FOG WOULD LIKELY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DRY SLOT/MID-LEVEL DRYING TAPERS OFF RAIN ON THURSDAY
MORNING. AS LONG AS WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG FOG COULD PERSIST OVER
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
DAY. WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND START TO INCREASE IN THE AFTN AS SFC
LOW CENTER MOVES TO CNTRL OR EASTERN LK SUPERIOR WHILE DEEPENING.
DESPITE CLOUDS/FOG AND SPOTTY RAIN...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE 50S FROM SHEAR ADVECTION ALONE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SFC LOW. ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN COULD DEVELOP LATE AFTN/THURSDAY
EVENING AS PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SWEEPS IN OVER MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST CWA. KEPT POPS HIGHEST TO THE
EAST OF MQT AND ESC AS THAT IS WHERE LARGER SCALE FORCING INTERACTS
WITH BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION. BASED ON GRADIENT OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND FCST H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...THINKING BETTER CHANCES OF
TSRA WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA LATER THURSDAY AFTN
INTO EVENING.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/DEEP MOISTURE MAY DROP ACROSS GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHILE COOLER AIRMASS LINGERS AS H85 TEMPS FALL
TO -4C TO -6C BY 12Z SATURDAY. NW-NNW CYCLONIC FLOW AT 1000-850MB
PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY SUGGESTING THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED PRECIP. 1000-850MB/H85-H7 THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SFC
TEMPS POINT TO MAINLY SNOW FOR PTYPE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING OVER THE WEST WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FARTHER EAST. DETAILS WILL
NEED TO BE SORTED OUT LATER THIS WEEK...BUT DOES SEEM THAT THE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST AND NORTHWEST UPR
MICHIGAN.
TEMPS COOL FURTHER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE EASING AS SFC-H85 RIDGE NEARS FROM THE WEST.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
FOR NW FLOW AREAS TO THE EAST OF MARQUETTE. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITION
DAY IN WEATHER. EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EDGES EAST AS STRONGER JET
ENERGY MOVES TO FRONT SIDE OF TROUGH WHICH THEN CLEARS WAY FOR
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH TO EXPAND TOWARD ROCKIES AND RIDGING TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. RIDGING LOOKS BRIEF THOUGH AS THE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS LEADING
TO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS UNDER LINGERING SFC RDG AXIS
THRU MID AFTERNOON. AN UPR DISTURBANCE WL BRING SOME -SN TO
MAINLY THE S HALF OF UPR MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVNG...AND CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AT THE MORE SRN SAW/IWD LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME
WHEN THE LLVL DRY AIR IS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY BY THE PCPN. CMX IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE PCPN REMAINING TO THE S.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIFT TOWARD THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY THEN DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON
FRIDAY. SE-E WINDS 20-25 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...THEN AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT NW 25-30 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS
COLDER AIR PLUNGES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION. WINDS DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
THE DEEP H500 MB UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO WRN WY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE STRENGTHENING THE WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM 850 MB TO
700 MB AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH BUT REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THUS THE THREAT OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE
DECREASING SOMEWHAT. THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG DRY SLOW WORKING
INTO THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 850-700MB DURING THE DAY TODAY. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL NOSES INTO WYOMING TONIGHT...STEEPENING
LAPSES MIGHT SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF ACCUMULATING ICE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT
700 MB IN THESE AREAS COOL TO -2C TO -4C WHICH WOULD NOT SUPPORT
RAPID SNOW GROWTH AND GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
AT 850MB...ALL MODELS ARE ABOVE FREEZING 1C TO 4C...FREEZING RAIN
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY THREAT.
NOTE THE BEST GUESS AT MIN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING PRODUCED
LOWS NEAR 30 ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH A FREEZING LINE RUNNING
FROM ROUGHLY BIG SPRINGS TO AINSWORTH. HIGHS TODAY RISE TO THE MID
30S ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTIES. THE RAP MODEL PRODUCED
HIGHS AROUND 33 IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HRRR SHOWED 35F.
WITH LOWS FALLING TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT...IT WOULD APPEAR ABOUT 8 TO
10 HOURS OF SUBFREEZING WEATHER COULD DEVELOP WHICH WOULD
NECESSITATE ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SHERIDAN AND
CHERRY COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK AROUND NOON IN THIS AREA AND WE ARE FORECASTING WARMER LOWS
TONIGHT THAN ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...FOG COULD
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT BUT MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AS SUGGESTED IN THE 850-700MB MOISTURE FIELDS. DRIZZLE WOULD APPEAR
TO BE THE OPERATIVE PRECIPITATION MODE WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE
PROFILES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 BUT SOME SOLNS LIKE THE GFS
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
OTHER MODELS DO THE SAME BUT ARE FARTHER EAST FAVORING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEB WITH THIS RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKES THE GFS IS MAINTAINING A
STRONGLY BACK LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM FOR EXAMPLE VEERS
THE 850 WINDS A BIT MORE TOWARD ERN NEB. THE 305K ISENTROPIC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS IN BOTH MODELS IS DIRECTED TOWARD EASTERN
AND CNTL NEB.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM. REALLY LITTLE CHANCE OF
SNOW...AS ALL MODELS KEEP TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ABOVE FREEZING. AT
THE SURFACE HOWEVER...SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEBRASKA.
FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE DAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING. FARTHER
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY WARRANTS A THUNDER MENTION DURING THE MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON...DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SPREADS NORTHEAST...ENDING
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES BOOSTING
HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAILS REMAIN SKETCHY WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...AND WILL ONLY
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT
24 HOURS. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
CIGS REMAINS BELOW OVC010. BETTER LIFT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...OTHERWISE AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS NW NEB
DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
PRECIP/LIGHT ICING. IMPACT AT THE KVTN TERMINAL IS
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER EXPECT KLBF TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR LIQUID
PRECIP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
124 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS...ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO THESE
LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE CEILINGS ARE BELOW 1000
FEET. THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE COLUMN WITH SATURATION
WARMER THAN -10 C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL
CONTINUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
THREAT EXPANDING TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ND
HIGHWAY 200 THROUGH THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1017 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS WILL BE ERODED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE 14 UTC RAP HOLDS NEARLY THE ENTIRE STRATUS FIELD
THIS MORNING IN PLACE...WHILE THE 12 UTC NAM SUGGESTS SOME
CLEARING NORTH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTH.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...HOWEVER...LEANED CLOSER TO THE
RAP GIVEN WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA AT 6 AM CDT WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. LOWS HERE FELL INTO THE TEENS. SKIES WERE
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SNOW THAT FELL ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL HAS NOW
DISSIPATED. HAVE UPDATED POPS THIS MORNING...STARTING OUT DRY
ACROSS THE CWA. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY SO
BROUGHT IN SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING
THE MORNING AND KEPT THE CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH...SO
THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE NORTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD CLOUD OVER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES ANTICIPATED DIMINISHING SNOWFALL
THIS MORNING...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIP TYPE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AT 3 AM CDT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINED OVER THE ROCKIES NEAR
NEVADA/IDAHO WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROCKIES...THE FRONT RANGE...AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF
MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
COLORADO/WYOMING. THIS WAS RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF. LIGHT SNOW FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FROM
EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA APPEARED TO BE DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...EXCEPT FOR AN ENHANCED AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT WAS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
THE HRRR 3KM REFLECTIVITY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT RADAR RETURNS
AND WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND IN THAT MODEL FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE
HRRR DIMINISHES THE SNOWFALL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO NOTHING
AFTER DAYBREAK/12Z. THE MODEL INDICATES SOME CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FEEL CONFIDENT THAT BY 6 AM MDT THE
ADVISORY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE MODELS DEPICT THE UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST TO WYOMING AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA. THUS THE MODELS WERE
KEEPING PRECIPITATION VERY CLOSE TO THE ND BORDER IN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE MENTIONS OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO THE 30S...BUT
WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR
SOUTH.
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER WYOMING WITH CONTINUED
ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT CONTINUES WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT
FREEZING RAIN. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TYPE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND
UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BUT WARM ADVECTION LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS/EC AND GLOBAL
GEM ALL PRODUCING QPF OVER OUR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CWA.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AND MAX
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES CELSIUS...THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. BY THIS TIME ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE EVENING WE COULD AGAIN SEE A MIXED BAG
OF LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN HIGHLIGHTS FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN A
STRONG NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW COULD BRING A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING OFF THE PACIFIC LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME 50S IN THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING US BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S. HAVE STUCK WITH PERSISTENCE AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA MAY BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY SECTOR...ESPECIALLY ON
SUNDAY...WITH MAYBE A FEW COLD ADVECTION RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ON
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE AT
KDIK THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. KBIS AND KJMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO IFR IN STRATUS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL IN THE
06-09 UTC TIME FRAME TONIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
331 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.DISCUSSION...
STORM SYSTEM OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR TONIGHT... WILL FIRST WATCH
FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
SOME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED PER MESOANALYSIS DESPITE THE
CLOUDINESS. RAP... HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT AND/OR LIFT NORTH INTO KANSAS.
WITH THIS PRIMARY FOCUS LIFTING INTO KANSAS... THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ALTHOUGH SOME
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS ARE LIKELY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. DID
CONSIDER A SMALL FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHEAST... BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FALL JUST EAST OF THE CWA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 72 61 71 / 40 70 50 20
HOBART OK 65 75 58 70 / 40 50 40 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 77 64 73 / 50 70 40 10
GAGE OK 60 75 48 68 / 40 30 30 0
PONCA CITY OK 66 73 59 67 / 60 80 60 30
DURANT OK 66 72 67 77 / 40 90 80 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
158 PM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...TIMING OF MVFR CIGS AND THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER
CONCERN THROUGH THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
MVFR CIGS REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS ALL AREA TAF SITES AT THE START
OF THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS AND UPSTREAM
TRENDS INDICATE CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 2 KFT BY 3 PM CDT...LIFTING
TO VFR LEVELS BY 6 PM CDT. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 45 KTS WILL PROVIDE SOME
GRADUAL MOIST LIFT OVERNIGHT OVER THE REGION. ONCE IN PLACE...MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOIST AIR MASS HOLDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME THESE RAIN CHANCES
WERE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...SO JUST HAVE CHANGE GROUPS
IN THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF FOR CIG HEIGHTS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING...AND HAVE A VCSH IN AT
ALL AREA TAFS STARTING AT 15Z AS A RESULT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO AFFECT AREA TAF SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WAS
BEYOND THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES BUT DFW. WILL
LIKELY NEED TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE TAFS WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE OCT 29 2013/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN BOTH LOW LEVEL AND MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 1.5
TO OVER 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS
AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE. HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT WILL LIKELY AVERAGE FROM AROUND 1
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOST COUNTIES TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD
LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE THREATS.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDDAY. SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL END
WEST OF A PARIS... CORSICANA...TEMPLE LINE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AND
END ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL TRANSIT TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
THIS WILL PUT US IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL
THEN DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 80 69 77 69 80 / 20 40 80 90 30
WACO, TX 81 67 77 68 81 / 10 40 80 90 40
PARIS, TX 79 66 75 67 77 / 20 40 80 90 50
DENTON, TX 79 65 73 67 77 / 20 50 80 80 30
MCKINNEY, TX 79 68 75 68 78 / 20 40 80 90 30
DALLAS, TX 80 71 77 71 81 / 20 40 80 90 30
TERRELL, TX 81 69 76 69 79 / 10 40 80 90 50
CORSICANA, TX 81 68 77 70 79 / 10 30 70 90 50
TEMPLE, TX 81 68 77 69 80 / 10 40 70 90 50
MINERAL WELLS, TX 79 66 77 65 76 / 20 60 80 70 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
139 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT EXTENDED FROM VIRGINIA TO A LOW IN KANSAS
MISSOURI...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE COVERED THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST. BY FRIDAY THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT TUESDAY...
DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES FOR THE LESS CLOUD COVER.
AS OF 915 AM EDT TUESDAY...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT OR ERODE WITH MIXING AND
HEATING THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING 12Z/8AM RNK SOUNDING SHOWED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. HRRR AND RNK WRFARW INDICATED LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO CUT BACK ON MORNING POPS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I77 THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER WITH LATEST OBS TRENDS
FOR THIS MORNING. MORE CHANGES LATER TODAY...
AS OF 345 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AIR MASS
WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS. SCATTERED RAIN NORTH OF BLUEFIELD
AND ROANOKE EARLY THIS MORNING WAS MOVING EAST AND DISSIPATING. DO
NOT THINK THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL COMPLETELY GO AWAY BUT JUST
BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY.
BY THIS EVENING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE REACHING THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT
TONIGHT AROUND THE 290K LEVEL. EXPECT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
TO INCREASE AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER TODAY...AGAIN WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY WAS
TOO WARM IN THIS AREA. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE USED A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED ADJMET/ADJMAV NUMBERS.
850 MB START OUT FROM THE WEST TODAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTH
TONIGHT. WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LIMITED DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIDGES. STAYED CLOSER TO WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT WE
WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. MINOR DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FROM THE WEST WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS GENERALLY WITH LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...LEAVING THE MID
ATLANTIC SITUATED IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW.
RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WILL ALLOW THE WARMUP TO CONTINUE...AS AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW 7OS FURTHER
EAST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...DRAGGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. STUCK CLOSER TO
THE NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS RELATIVE TO TIMING OF THE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY...ALL OF WHICH FAVOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WHEN FACTORING IN A DELAYED ONSET TO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BELIEVE THAT THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LIKELY ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS HOWEVER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE EARLY
HOURS OF FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOW CAPE/INSTABILITY AS
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST...BUT
VERY HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY AS A 50KT TO 60KT LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. BELIEVE THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT MAINLY STRONG
SHOWERS WITH ONLY MINIMAL LIGHTNING...BUT THAT THE STRONGER SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRAWING SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO
THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN GUSTY AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE
HIGH SHEAR AND HELICITY ALSO MEAN THAT ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL HAVE A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AS THE SMOOTHER
TERRAIN WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...IF TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS DELAYED ANY...DAYTIME
HEATING MAY ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PIEDMONTS.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING.
MILD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
TRULY COLDER AIR NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE
SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...
ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DOWNSLOPE
CLEARING OF SKIES EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...THE FLOW WILL BE UPSLOPE AND EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF MAINLY
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...ACCOMPANYING COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA.
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES WILL CARRY DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY TO
AROUND THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING COVERAGE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS 850 MB WINDS WEAKEN
AND VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 137 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND REACHES THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. TAF SITES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AFTER 05Z/1AM WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING EXPECTED MVFR CEILING WITH POCKETS OF IFR IN LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND LIGHT RAIN.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH TAF VALID PERIOD.
MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL -SHRA IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONT THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSYBS AS
WELL.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOOK FOR INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE SURFACE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE PREFERRED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH IFR-MVFR
CEILINGS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
352 PM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SINCE TEMPERATURES TODAY
DID NOT WARM UP AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE STILL PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES JUMPED INTO THE 40S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...BUT
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
MODELS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT
SOUNDINGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SHOW PRESENT CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS COMING THE CLOSEST TO INITIAL CONDITIONS.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
THIS EVENING EAST OF A DOUGLAS TO CHEYENNE LINE AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WITH NEARLY ISOTHERMAL TEMPERATURES UP TO 700MB...OR WARMING
SLIGHTLY. ONCE THE AXIS OF THIS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX TO
DEVELOP...TRENDING TOWARDS SLEET AND SNOW MIX BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE TEMPERATURES LOWER BELOW 0C ALOFT. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER RIDGES...INCLUDING LARAMIE AND
CHEYENNE...LITTLE ICE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WITH MORE OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THE I80 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER 3 INCHES SINCE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
IN FACT...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. FURTHER
NORTH...EXPECT SOME ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX...NORTHEAST OF A
WHEATLAND TO ALLIANCE LINE. EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE
TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING UP TO AN INCH.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT INTO THE WEST. THE
NEXT FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH BEGINNING MIDNIGHT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG I80 BETWEEN LARAMIE
AND CHEYENNE INCLUDING THE I80 SUMMIT...AND THE ARLINGTON EXCHANGE
WEST OF LARAMIE. GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE
LOCATIONS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST EVERYWHERE BY NOON THURSDAY AS LLVL MIXING
OCCURS...WHERE WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 50 MPH OUTSIDE OF THE
WATCH AREA. MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. POP WILL BE BELOW 5 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...BUT
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
HIGH WINDS LOOK TO BE CONTINUING THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AS
GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS 50+ KTS OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL
BE EASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...DOWN TO
AROUND 35KTS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES. 700MB
TEMPERATURES -4 TO -6C SHOULD EQUATE TO 40 HIGHS OUT WEST. WITH A
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT THOUGH...AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
ABOVE FREEZING...UP TO +4 TO +6C SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING AT
VERY NICE TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...60S EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...50S WEST.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPORARY THOUGH AS OUR NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 700MB
TEMPERATURE FALL TO -8 TO -10C MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING
INITIALLY OUT WEST OVER CARBON COUNTY...BUT SPREADING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWFA BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD 700MB
TEMPERATURES...THIS SHOULD ALL FALL AS SNOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS TODAY. RELYING HEAVILY ON LATEST HRRR FORECAST THAT
BREAKS OUT CHEYENNE AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF TIME. FOR CHADRON AND ALLIANCE...THINK THESE AIRPORTS
WILL STAY DOWN ALL DAY. ALL AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL GO DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS SOME
ENERGY EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING. SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
WITH WINTRY WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...AND
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE LATE THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING WINDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ102-107-108.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-116-117.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ002-003-019-095-096.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...CLAYCOMB
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1109 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TODAY.
FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUING LATE THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS AND FOG IS TAKING ITS
TIME LIFTING...SO LOWERED HOURLY TEMPERATURES BY 3-5 DEGREES
THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WITH SEVERAL REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA OBSERVING
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER INCH FROM LARAMIE COUNTY
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. EXPECT FOG TO GRADUALLY LIFT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MELT MOST OF
THE ICE INTO THIS EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TONIGHT AS A
POTENT SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
CALIFORNIA...EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND MAYBE
WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. DID
INCREASE POP TONIGHT EAST OF A LINE FROM LARAMIE TO CHADRON. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
SNOW LEVEL WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AROUND 6000 TO 7000 FEET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
PREDAWN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE PACIFIC UPPER
LOW CENTER HAD MOVED EAST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA WITH BROAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS. THE REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING...
ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...A SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS WAS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE CWA. WARM MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS CREATING WIDESPREAD FOG...LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...BUT
ARE CAUSING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO BLACK ICE. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAINED STEADY IN THE 20S. VISIBILITIES IN FOG
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 1 TO 5 MILES...BUT WERE AS LOW AS A QUARTER
MILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM.
THE 00Z SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING
THE NEVADA UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO WYOMING TONIGHT AND
THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH WILL ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SNOW WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...THEN CHANGE TO RAIN OR RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WYOMING TONIGHT...COLDER
AIR ALOFT WILL CHANGE THE MIXED PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A HALF INCH FOR THE PLAINS TO MUCH
AS 3 INCHES FOR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES. THE SNOW WILL
LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW
IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AND
SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHEAST WYOMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S MOUNTAINS...
TO THE 30S TO MID 40S VALLEYS AND PLAINS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 20 MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S PLAINS. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE PLAINS WITH 40S
TO AROUND 50. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MINIMA.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GAP WIND EVENT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY AS
NW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH...PROMOTING AN INCREASE
IN WESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 600 AND 700
MB...IN ESSENCE TRAPPING THE INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE. IN THE HIGH COUNTRY...700 MB WINDS JUST BELOW THE
INVERSION LOOK TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT DUE TO THE ACCELERATION
OF TRAPPED FLOW BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINS AND INVERSION. LOOKING AT
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 60 MPH IN THESE GAP AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE INVERSION
WEAKENS. GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE PLAINS TO THE
IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...AND WILL ALSO SEE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE DUE TO THE GENERAL INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. THURSDAYS
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A RESULT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DOWNSLOPE WARMING...WITH 50S TO 60S LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND 40S OUT WEST. WOULD EXPECT SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS AS
WELL IN THIS PATTERN AND A FEW LIGHT OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.
A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT IN NW FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING LOOKS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO ANTICIPATE MAINLY OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS TO BE ENHANCED BY
THE WAVE WITH A FEW SNEAKING OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...WITH A
FEW INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MILD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND WILL
BACK UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LEE SIDE PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE SO WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND SNOW FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AIRPORTS TODAY. RELYING HEAVILY ON LATEST HRRR FORECAST THAT
BREAKS OUT CHEYENNE AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A BRIEF TIME. FOR CHADRON AND ALLIANCE...THINK THESE AIRPORTS
WILL STAY DOWN ALL DAY. ALL AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WILL GO DOWN ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS SOME
ENERGY EAST. CONFIDENCE HIGH ON THIS HAPPENING. SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT TUE OCT 29 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN...DRIZZLE AND SNOW TO
THE DISTRICTS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS THE
LOW EXITS TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUSTAINED
WESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. DRIER AND
MILDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER THIS WEEK AND LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A CHANGE TO COLDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...JAMSKI
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...CLAYCOMB
FIRE WEATHER...JAMSKI