Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/27/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1046 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
SHOWERS. &&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...THE SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
S-CNTRL QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THIS HOUR TOWARDS WRN NY. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE SHORES FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER W-CNTRL NY. THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN HAS
DRIED UP OVER THE FCST AREA...AND MUCH OF IT HAS ERODED DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z KALB SOUNDING BELOW THE
775 HPA LAYER. THE T/TD DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE...AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS ONLY RECEIVED MAINLY SPRINKLES. THE PCPN SHOULD
INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z BASED ON THE HRRR WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE NW ZONES /WRN DACKS/...WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE
BEING TAPPED.
HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
MORE MOISTURE STARVED...AS IT HEADS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 06Z-12Z. ONLY SLIGHT OR VERY
LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AN
INCH OR SO OVER THE WRN DACKS. IN THE ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FT
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ANY LIGHT
SNOW WILL DEPEND HOW FAST THE COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS IN BTWN 06Z-
12Z. OVERALL...THIS IS SHAPING UP AS A VERY LIGHT PCPN EVENT. LOWS
STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS TO M30S OVER
THE CAPITAL REGION...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND
NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE VALLEYS
WITH STILL A CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SO THERE
COULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE LOW STARTS TO
BACK TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AS THE FLOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD PASS BY NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE FAST UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEMS...AND TIMING OF RAIN AND DRY PERIODS...AS WELL AS CLOUD
COVER TRENDS...WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WITH EACH SET OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE NT-WED...BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES...A FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE SFC REFLECTION...AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 12Z/GEFS...GFS AND GEM INDICATE THAT A SFC
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION TUE NT-WED MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTES TO LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ECMWF APPEARS A BIT LESS EMPHATIC OVERALL WITH SFC
REFLECTION AND QPF...AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL INDICATE
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR WOULD BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND
INTERSTATE 90 NORTH...SHOULD PRECIP REACH THAT FAR NORTH. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP TO TAPER OFF BY WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT TUE NT/WED AM MINS TO
FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH WED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S IN
MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
WED NT-THU NT...WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INDICATED THE CHANCES POPS
FOR SHOWERS FOR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S WED NT...RISE INTO THE 50S ON THU...AND DROP TO 45-50 FOR
THU NT.
FRI-SAT...A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINDY
WEATHER...ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS FRI
NT/SAT AM MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD ADVECTION MAY BE A
BIT MODIFIED SINCE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH COULD SET UP FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST TO THE WEST. HIGHS
SATURDAY AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN
NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
OR ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE NEAR THE TAF SITES PRIOR TO
06Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED FROM KALB NORTH AND EAST. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL BTWN 05Z-10Z. AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE TAF SITES BTWN 10Z-13Z...THE CIGS WILL
RISE...AND THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS WILL VEER TO W/SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AT
LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...SHSN.
WED-WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
OVERALL RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER.
ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FROM A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL/NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
700 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
7 PM UPDATE...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
INTO SOUTHERN NH AND WESTERN MASS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS WE
HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER A LITTLE BUT WITH SAME TREND AS BEFORE.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TARGET. DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING WERE ROUGHLY 5F
LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE INTERIOR AND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. THE 12Z ECMWF AND 21Z RAP MODELS HANDLED
THIS BEST AND WERE BLENDED FOR DEWPOINT FORECAST THROUGH 06Z. NO
OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES ITS STEADY
EASTWARD APPROACH...WITH A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. OVER
OUR AREA STARTING OFF WITH 40 KNOT WINDS AT H925 FOR 21 TO
00Z...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. SO THROUGH 23Z...FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED...DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THESE GUSTS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COASTLINE
INCLUDING CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE WHERE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO AROUND 35 MPH MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 40 MPH
GUSTS.
OVERNIGHT...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS INTO THE
AREA...THESE FEATURES BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...HOWEVER IN
THE FAR INTERIOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME
LOCALES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW FLURRIES MAY FALL IN
A PORTION OF THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT HEADS TRACKS OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A RAPID PERIOD OF CLEARING EXPECTED FROM W TO E. MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SECOND SHORT WAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SOME CLOUDS.
OVERALL PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAY.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF GOOD MIXING BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
LOWER GUSTS THAN TODAY...GENERALLY 20-25 MPH BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
LATE IN DAY.
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING MAINLY INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAY ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY NIGHT... DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...COOLER IN SOME SHELTERED LOCALES...AND WARMER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SOME CLOUDS BEGIN TO ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
AT THE START OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER FLOW FEATURES A TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA...RIDGES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA/NEVADA. SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH...ONE ON MONDAY AND A SECOND ON WEDNESDAY. THE GULF RIDGE
THEN BUILDS NORTH OVER NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST USA EJECTS EAST MIDWEEK AND CROSSES
NEW ENGLAND AROUND FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF UPPER FLOWS ARE SIMILAR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE EJECTING UPPER LOW AND SO IT IS LATER
BRINGING THE WAVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. NO UPSTREAM FEATURES TO
KICK THE LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST USA AS SHOWN IN THE GFS...SO THE
SLOWER ECMWF EVOLUTION IS FAVORED. BUT THE MARGIN FOR FORECAST
CHANGE IS QUITE LARGE THIS MANY DAYS IN THE FUTURE.
THE DAILIES...
MONDAY... FIRST UPPER SHORTWAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. OUR AREA IS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SOME LIFT ALOFT...BUT LIMITED CONVERGENCE
AT LOWER LEVELS. MODEL RH FIELDS SHOW SOME MOISTURE A LITTLE ABOVE
AND BELOW 850 MB BUT GENERALY DRY ABOVE 700 MB. LIMITED
LIFT/LIMITED MOISTURE SUGGESTS CLOUDS BUT LOW PROBABILITY OF PCPN.
WE WILL ADD SOME SKY COVER TO THE MODEL VALUES ALONG THE FRONT
MONDAY MORNING/MIDDAY...BUT MAINTAIN POPS NEAR NIL. TEMPS ALOFT
SUPPORT MAX TEMPS OF 50-56F AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER IN THE
HILLS. WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH. MIXING SHOULD REACH 875-850 MB. WINDS ALOFT IN THIS MIXED
LAYER WILL BE 20-25 KNOTS...WE WILL INCLUDE SIMILAR VALUES FOR
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.
MONDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WE EXPECT WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM AWAY FROM THE COAST. DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE
20S...AND SO TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD TAKE A SIMILAR DIP.
TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MEAN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. THE MIXED LAYER WILL APPROACH 900 MB
WHERE MIXED TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT MAX SURFACE TEMPS OF 45-50F.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. WE HAVE BROUGHT A PERIOD OF
INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THE FRONT BUT NO PCPN. HIGH PRESSURE IS
OTHERWISE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE...LATE WEEK
SYSTEM HAS TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE LONG RANGE MODELS. WE FAVORED
THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF /12Z VERSION NOT AVAILABLE/. THIS MEANS WE
ELIMINATED ALL MODEL-GENERATED POPS FOR THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOW-END CHANCE VALUES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. OUR BEST POPS
FOCUS ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTH-SHORE/CAPE COD/ADJACENT ISLANDS WHERE GUSTS APPROACHING 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KTS ALONG THE NEAR-SHORES AND ADJACENT WATERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED...BUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MONDAY MAY GUST 20-25 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EARLY TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS EXCLUDING NARR BAY AND BOS HARBOR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SW LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS WATERS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING WITH 35KT GUSTS LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...STRONG SW WINDS AGAINST DEPARTING TIDE ON BUZZARDS
BAY AND VINEYARD SOUND EARLY TONIGHT WILL CREATE SOME HIGH WAVES.
OFFSHORE SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE SUN WITH BRISK W FLOW DEVELOPING. GUSTS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY /25KT/ BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN DAY.
SEAS OF 4 TO 8 FT LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...THESE SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15 KTS MONDAY WILL YIELD CONTINUANCE OF
WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION RESULTS IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ALLOW WAVE DISSIPATION. WILL SEE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB
NEAR TERM...WTB/NMB
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/NMB
MARINE...WTB/NMB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1246 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
354 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE MAINLY SOMEWHAT WARMER
THOUGH STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...AND BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LONGER TERM...TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES IN ADDITION TO
TEMPS ARE COMPLICATED BY LARGE MODEL SOLUTION SPREADS BY EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK AS COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...ALLOWING MODEST HEIGHT RISES TEMPORARILY
TODAY IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGLY
DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-DAY
BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVE. THIS
LOW WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WITH BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TRAILING COLD FRONT
TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN...
ALLOWING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HERE WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY ALOFT TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH WARM ADVECTION FLOW...THOUGH BETWEEN STRONGEST ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND EARLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING THE WARM-UP
IS LIMITED TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TODAY...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS ACROSS
THE NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES LOOK
TO REACH THE MID 50S. INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD A QUICK
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AFTER SUNSET...THEN HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE CITY AND LAKE MICHIGAN. COOL START KEEPS SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 50S.
NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DIGS ACROSS HUDSON AND
JAMES BAYS SUNDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND ITS COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH DETAILS
OF THE PATTERN BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LOCAL AREA
JUST DOWNWIND OF CONFLUENCE OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS AGREEMENT
IN A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MAIN DIFFERENCES WHICH EMERGE ARE WITH HOW QUICKLY
WESTERN UPPER LOW ADVANCES EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WHICH MAY RIDE ALONG THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. OVERALL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND KEEPS US DRY
INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ALL SPREAD SOME PRECIP
INTO THE CWA BY TUES AM. EITHER WAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES
WITH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WHICH APPEARS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TOWARD MID-WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS DISTANCE ARE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL-RAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S BY DAY AND
40S BY NIGHT USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. IF SLOWER ECMWF
DOES VERIFY...COULD BE 60+ DEGREES FOR HALLOWEEN.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* LLWS TONIGHT.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLIPPING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WILL PRESS AGAINST HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...INCREASING WINDS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS
TONIGHT MAY BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER OVER A
COOLING SURFACE...BUT THAT WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL SURFACE MIXING RAMPS UP
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING WILL
TURN WINDS NORTHWEST AND RELAX THE GUSTS SOMEWHAT. APART FROM THE
WIND ISSUES...FROPA SHOULD BE DRY AND TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
410 AM CDT
RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WHICH INCLUDES GALES
OVER THE OPEN AND NEARHSHORE WATERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE WINDS/GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. ALTHOUGH AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP THE CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TODAY/EVENING. A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WILL
THEN SETUP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KT
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE...AND SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KT
LIKELY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS/GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE WAS LOW WITH REGARDS TO DURATION
OF THESE HIGHER WINDS/GUSTS...WITH A TIME FRAME OF 3-4HRS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
DURATION OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD BE LONGER...WITH AN UPGRADE
TO THE CURRENT GALE WARNING POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH GALES STILL
LIKELY. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH GALES ENDING OVER THE SOUTH HALF ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GALES PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH HALF. EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM
FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...7 PM
FRIDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
Updated the forecast earlier this morning after the freezing
warning expired at 9 am. A widespread killing hard freeze occurred
over central and southeast IL early this morning with lows in the
20s. Lincoln set a record low of 20 degrees breaking a record low
of 24 degrees set in 1930. Springfield Capitol airport had a low
of 21 degrees which was just a degree shy of record low of 20
degrees set in 1887.
Sunny skies across central and southern IL this morning helped
frosty temperatures rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s at
1030 am. 1035 mb canadian high pressure over the mid MS valley
will weaken to 1030 mb as it drifts into the TN valley this
evening. This will give sw winds 5-15 mph and few gusts to around
20 mph this afternoon and give highs in the lower 50s, which is
still about 10 degrees below normal for late October. Upper level
trof lingering over the northeast states and still over IL could
cause few cumulus clouds to appear this afternoon especially from
I-74 NE per RUC and NAM curule parameters.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
VFR conditions are expected to continue across the central IL
terminal airports the next 24 hours through 18Z/1 pm Saturday.
LLWS will be the biggest concern overnight with 2k ft sw winds of
40-50 kts overnight into early Friday morning and strongest at
northern TAF sites of PIA and BMI. Southwest winds 8-14 kts with
gusts of 15-19 kts this afternoon to be sw 10-15 kts tonight and
switch wnw 12-17 kts and gusts 18-25 kts with passage of cold
front from 15-18Z Saturday. Few cumulus clouds of 5-7k ft to
appear this afternoon especially along I-74 taf sites. Scattered
mid/high clouds arrive tonight and could become broken overnight
along I-74. Have scattered clouds of 5-7k ft after 15Z Saturday.
1035 mb canadian high pressure over the mid MS valley to drift
east into the TN valley this evening and into the southeast states
by 18Z/1 pm Saturday. Meanwhile a cold front near the MT/ND and
Canadian border to push southeast through central IL between
15-18Z Saturday. This front to pass through dry with limited low
level moisture and upper level dynamics staying over the great
lakes region. Main feature will be the stronger winds with LLWS
likely overnight into early Saturday morning.
07
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 318 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
High pressure spreading into the Mississippi River Valley and
Midwest from the Plains this morning. Northwesterly flow will
slowly edge eastward today and modify somewhat into a more
westerly flow briefly as another wave digs into the broader trof,
bringing precip chances north of ILX for tonight and Saturday
while this far to the south, the forecast remains dry through the
weekend. Cooler temps modifying as midlevels warm in the wake of
the upper trof and southerly winds come back into the region this
evening and again Sunday night. Next weather pattern shift far
more problematic still in the forecast as significant wave digs
out a trof over the Pacific coast late in the weekend. The issues
for the forecast revolve around how the energy actual moves out of
the SW next week. GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement with one
another, nor are they showing a lot of run to run consistency with
timing, resulting in the delay of best chances until Monday
night/Tuesday.
SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow...
Quiet day, mostly sunny and high pressure building back into the
region. Winds picking up a southerly component later today, WAA
keeping the overnight lows above freezing, in the mid to upper
30s. Another wave moving east tomorrow setting up westerly flow at
the sfc tomorrow...and warming midlevels a couple degrees as well,
particularly in the southern half of the CWA. Tomorrow a few
degrees warmer as well, though still in the 50s.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
A deep trof develops over the desert SW and makes the
projections for next week more than a little problematic. GFS
shears out the energy quite a bit in the 00z run, and plenty of
precip for a very non organized upper system. May have a little
too much cyclogenesis in it still at the sfc, but is starting to
hint at a more elongated area of activity possibly around a
developing quasi-baroclinic zone in parallel flow from SW to NE. Less
aggressive 00z ECMWF looking a little more diffuse early, but also
like yesterdays 00z GFS with a deepening cyclone and a positive
tilt. Far from feeling strongly about either and keeping pops to
chance category from Tues through Day 7.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
354 AM CDT
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE MAINLY SOMEWHAT WARMER
THOUGH STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS...AND BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LONGER TERM...TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES IN ADDITION TO
TEMPS ARE COMPLICATED BY LARGE MODEL SOLUTION SPREADS BY EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK AS COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...ALLOWING MODEST HEIGHT RISES TEMPORARILY
TODAY IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGLY
DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA. SURFACE REFLECTION OF
SUBSIDENCE IN THE FORM OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID-DAY
BEFORE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK SOUTHWEST AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
IN ADVANCE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WITH CANADIAN SHORT WAVE. THIS
LOW WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...WITH BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TRAILING COLD FRONT
TRAILS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN...
ALLOWING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HERE WITH MAIN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN LAKES AND INTO LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY ALOFT TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH WARM ADVECTION FLOW...THOUGH BETWEEN STRONGEST ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND EARLY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING THE WARM-UP
IS LIMITED TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TODAY...WITH SIMILAR TEMPS ACROSS
THE NORTH SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES LOOK
TO REACH THE MID 50S. INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD A QUICK
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S AFTER SUNSET...THEN HOLDING FAIRLY
STEADY OVERNIGHT WITH BLUSTERY SOUTHWEST WINDS. WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT...COLDER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE CITY AND LAKE MICHIGAN. COOL START KEEPS SUNDAY BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY LOWER 50S.
NEXT DIGGING SHORT WAVE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DIGS ACROSS HUDSON AND
JAMES BAYS SUNDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES AND ITS COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH DETAILS
OF THE PATTERN BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LOCAL AREA
JUST DOWNWIND OF CONFLUENCE OF SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS AGREEMENT
IN A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE FRONT SAGGING
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MAIN DIFFERENCES WHICH EMERGE ARE WITH HOW QUICKLY
WESTERN UPPER LOW ADVANCES EAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...AND WITH SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WHICH MAY RIDE ALONG THE ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY. OVERALL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF WHICH MAINTAINS
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES AND KEEPS US DRY
INTO TUESDAY...THOUGH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ALL SPREAD SOME PRECIP
INTO THE CWA BY TUES AM. EITHER WAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES
WITH THE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH WHICH APPEARS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
MIDWEST TOWARD MID-WEEK. THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS DISTANCE ARE WARM
ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BE ALL-RAIN WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S BY DAY AND
40S BY NIGHT USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. IF SLOWER ECMWF
DOES VERIFY...COULD BE 60+ DEGREES FOR HALLOWEEN.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* INCREASING WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH GUSTS STARTING MID DAY.
* LLWS LIKELY TONIGHT.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
QUIET CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS...WITH THIS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING
SOME PERSISTENT SCT VFR CLOUDS ACROSS SW WISCONSIN AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MOVING EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AM NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF EXPANSION OF THESE CLOUDS...SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SCT MENTION IN THE TAFS. ONCE AGAIN...MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TO ONLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN INCREASE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A STRONGER WIND FIELD MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...ALSO EXPECT LLWS.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH ALL ELEMENTS.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA LATE...OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA...OTHERWISE VFR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
410 AM CDT
RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE WHICH INCLUDES GALES
OVER THE OPEN AND NEARHSHORE WATERS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM
FORCE WINDS/GUSTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST. ALTHOUGH AS THIS OCCURS...LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP THE CURRENT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TODAY/EVENING. A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD WILL
THEN SETUP ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST GALES TO 45 KT
LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE...AND SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KT
LIKELY OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE TONIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS/GUSTS TO 50 KT POSSIBLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE WAS LOW WITH REGARDS TO DURATION
OF THESE HIGHER WINDS/GUSTS...WITH A TIME FRAME OF 3-4HRS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
DURATION OF THESE STRONGER WINDS COULD BE LONGER...WITH AN UPGRADE
TO THE CURRENT GALE WARNING POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH GALES STILL
LIKELY. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WINDS
WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH GALES ENDING OVER THE SOUTH HALF ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GALES PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR
THE NORTH HALF. EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH NEW HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...7 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...7 PM
FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...7 PM
FRIDAY TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
Updated the forecast earlier this morning after the freezing
warning expired at 9 am. A widespread killing hard freeze occurred
over central and southeast IL early this morning with lows in the
20s. Lincoln set a record low of 20 degrees breaking a record low
of 24 degrees set in 1930. Springfield Capitol airport had a low
of 21 degrees which was just a degree shy of record low of 20
degrees set in 1887.
Sunny skies across central and southern IL this morning helped
frosty temperatures rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s at
1030 am. 1035 mb canadian high pressure over the mid MS valley
will weaken to 1030 mb as it drifts into the TN valley this
evening. This will give sw winds 5-15 mph and few gusts to around
20 mph this afternoon and give highs in the lower 50s, which is
still about 10 degrees below normal for late October. Upper level
trof lingering over the northeast states and still over IL could
cause few to scattered cumulus clouds to appear this afternoon
especially from I-74 NE per RUC and NAM curule parameters.
07
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 550 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this forecast
period (12z Saturday). High pressure that is producing the
cold weather this morning will shift off to our south allowing
winds to back more into a southwest direction this afternoon.
Other than some high based cumulus over the north this morning
we expect a sunny sky for this afternoon. Light and variable
winds this morning will turn into the west and then southwest
direction this afternoon, with our eastern TAF sites the last
to see winds switch into the southwest later this afternoon.
Speeds will range from 10 to 15 kts across the west this
afternoon and around 10 kts in the east.
Smith
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 318 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2013
High pressure spreading into the Mississippi River Valley and
Midwest from the Plains this morning. Northwesterly flow will
slowly edge eastward today and modify somewhat into a more
westerly flow briefly as another wave digs into the broader trof,
bringing precip chances north of ILX for tonight and Saturday
while this far to the south, the forecast remains dry through the
weekend. Cooler temps modifying as midlevels warm in the wake of
the upper trof and southerly winds come back into the region this
evening and again Sunday night. Next weather pattern shift far
more problematic still in the forecast as significant wave digs
out a trof over the Pacific coast late in the weekend. The issues
for the forecast revolve around how the energy actual moves out of
the SW next week. GFS and ECMWF are not in agreement with one
another, nor are they showing a lot of run to run consistency with
timing, resulting in the delay of best chances until Monday
night/Tuesday.
SHORT TERM...Today through tomorrow...
Quiet day, mostly sunny and high pressure building back into the
region. Winds picking up a southerly component later today, WAA
keeping the overnight lows above freezing, in the mid to upper
30s. Another wave moving east tomorrow setting up westerly flow at
the sfc tomorrow...and warming midlevels a couple degrees as well,
particularly in the southern half of the CWA. Tomorrow a few
degrees warmer as well, though still in the 50s.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
A deep trof develops over the desert SW and makes the
projections for next week more than a little problematic. GFS
shears out the energy quite a bit in the 00z run, and plenty of
precip for a very non organized upper system. May have a little
too much cyclogenesis in it still at the sfc, but is starting to
hint at a more elongated area of activity possibly around a
developing quasi-baroclinic zone in parallel flow from SW to NE. Less
aggressive 00z ECMWF looking a little more diffuse early, but also
like yesterdays 00z GFS with a deepening cyclone and a positive
tilt. Far from feeling strongly about either and keeping pops to
chance category from Tues through Day 7.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1218 PM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER WESTERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. 575DM CLOSED LOW CENTER IS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME MOVING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INT NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THIS UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST
LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA
INCREASING OVER OUR CWA. BEST FORCING/BEST MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH GOOD WAA IN PLACE I STILL
EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING WINDS WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS MOS GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. I TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ACCORDINGLY (UPPER
30S-LOW 40S) AND COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE/FORCING WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT (UPPER
50S/LOWS 60S). WE SHOULD HAVE A PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT AND INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATING WITH BUILDING
THERMAL LOW SUNDAY. MODERATING AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
SUMMARY...PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO PAST SHIFTS THIS FORECAST HAS MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IT DOES FINALLY LOOK LIKE THERE IS
COMPARATIVELY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT GREAT
FOR WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH RUN HAS
DEPICTED SUCH A VARIANCE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT NECESSITATES A LONG
PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AND CLOUD COVER IN MODEL BLENDS
USED...BUT MOST INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER WOULD BE OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME THAN CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOCALLY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH SOMETIME MONDAY...THOUGH SOME GEFS PERTURBATIONS DO
NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON WHICH IMPACTS CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TUES-WED-THURS...MANY SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM WITH THE
INCONSISTENCIES OVER PAST CYCLES. A FEW THINGS TO NOTE...THE EXTENT
AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR HAS BECOME LESS AND LESS WITH EACH CYCLE.
NOW THERE ARE STILL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DEPICT A STRONGER
COLD...ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS TYPICALLY USED /GFS GEM AND ECMWF/
ARE DEPICTING A WARMER OVERALL AIR MASS. THINKING A FEW DAYS AGO WAS
FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SUBSEQUENT WEAK
FRONTS...BUT NOW WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW DEEPENING AND
TAKING A TRACK SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THERE MIGHT NOT BE
AS MUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY WAY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE PROFILE REMAINS SHALLOW /SATURATED SFC TO ABOUT 700
MB/.
POPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATER WITH TIMING AS THE UPPER
LOW SPENDS A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME WEST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE
BEST POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PTYPE HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS THE LIQUID SIDE...AND 00Z CYCLE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIP...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A MOSTLY RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AGAIN...THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES IS RELATIVELY WIDE SO STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY PRECIP. THAT SAID...HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE ANYTHING CLOSE TO A MAJOR WINTER
STORM...AND BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA BELIEVE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE A NUISANCE TYPE WINTER WX EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH MCK AND
GLD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY TURNING
NORTH AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 09Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LOCKHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
520 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER WESTERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. 575DM CLOSED LOW CENTER IS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME MOVING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INT NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THIS UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST
LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA
INCREASING OVER OUR CWA. BEST FORCING/BEST MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH GOOD WAA IN PLACE I STILL
EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING WINDS WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS MOS GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. I TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ACCORDINGLY (UPPER
30S-LOW 40S) AND COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE/FORCING WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT (UPPER
50S/LOWS 60S). WE SHOULD HAVE A PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT AND INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATING WITH BUILDING
THERMAL LOW SUNDAY. MODERATING AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
SUMMARY...PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO PAST SHIFTS THIS FORECAST HAS MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IT DOES FINALLY LOOK LIKE THERE IS
COMPARATIVELY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT GREAT
FOR WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH RUN HAS
DEPICTED SUCH A VARIANCE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT NECESSITATES A LONG
PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AND CLOUD COVER IN MODEL BLENDS
USED...BUT MOST INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER WOULD BE OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME THAN CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOCALLY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH SOMETIME MONDAY...THOUGH SOME GEFS PERTURBATIONS DO
NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON WHICH IMPACTS CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TUES-WED-THURS...MANY SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM WITH THE
INCONSISTENCIES OVER PAST CYCLES. A FEW THINGS TO NOTE...THE EXTENT
AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR HAS BECOME LESS AND LESS WITH EACH CYCLE.
NOW THERE ARE STILL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DEPICT A STRONGER
COLD...ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS TYPICALLY USED /GFS GEM AND ECMWF/
ARE DEPICTING A WARMER OVERALL AIR MASS. THINKING A FEW DAYS AGO WAS
FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SUBSEQUENT WEAK
FRONTS...BUT NOW WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW DEEPENING AND
TAKING A TRACK SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THERE MIGHT NOT BE
AS MUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY WAY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE PROFILE REMAINS SHALLOW /SATURATED SFC TO ABOUT 700
MB/.
POPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATER WITH TIMING AS THE UPPER
LOW SPENDS A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME WEST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE
BEST POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PTYPE HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS THE LIQUID SIDE...AND 00Z CYCLE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIP...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A MOSTLY RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AGAIN...THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES IS RELATIVELY WIDE SO STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY PRECIP. THAT SAID...HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE ANYTHING CLOSE TO A MAJOR WINTER
STORM...AND BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA BELIEVE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE A NUISANCE TYPE WINTER WX EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. COULDNT RULE OUT SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE TEMPS COOLING TO NEAR SATURATION...HOWEVER WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALREADY INCREASING AND BL GENERALLY WELL MIXED WHERE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIGHTER I DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE WORTH MENTIONING IN
THE TAFS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TAF SITES AS
SURFACE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS MORNING. TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
DIMINISH. WINDS WILL SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 12KT AROUND 06Z AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW OVER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER WESTERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. 575DM CLOSED LOW CENTER IS OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME MOVING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INT NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. AT THE SURFACE A STALLED FRONT IS CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN TEXAS.
TODAY-TONIGHT...THIS UPPER LOW IN THE WEST WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST
LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA
INCREASING OVER OUR CWA. BEST FORCING/BEST MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO I AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLOUDS COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR IN HIGHS TODAY...BUT WITH GOOD WAA IN PLACE I STILL
EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 60S. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER
THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH NW WINDS INCREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING WINDS WE MAY NOT SEE TEMPS COOL AS MUCH AS MOS GUIDANCE
WOULD SUGGEST. I TRENDED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ACCORDINGLY (UPPER
30S-LOW 40S) AND COULD STILL BE TOO LOW.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MOISTURE/FORCING WILL SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS. AIR MASS
WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT (UPPER
50S/LOWS 60S). WE SHOULD HAVE A PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT AND INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATING WITH BUILDING
THERMAL LOW SUNDAY. MODERATING AIR MASS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
SUMMARY...PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPS AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO PAST SHIFTS THIS FORECAST HAS MUCH
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE IT DOES FINALLY LOOK LIKE THERE IS
COMPARATIVELY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE...BUT STILL NOT GREAT
FOR WHAT IS NORMALLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME PERIOD. EACH RUN HAS
DEPICTED SUCH A VARIANCE OF POSSIBILITIES THAT NECESSITATES A LONG
PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS AND CLOUD COVER IN MODEL BLENDS
USED...BUT MOST INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE ANY PRECIP CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER WOULD BE OVER A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME THAN CURRENTLY IN
THE FORECAST. THAT SAID...WE START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LOCALLY A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH SOMETIME MONDAY...THOUGH SOME GEFS PERTURBATIONS DO
NOT BRING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATER ON WHICH IMPACTS CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TUES-WED-THURS...MANY SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM WITH THE
INCONSISTENCIES OVER PAST CYCLES. A FEW THINGS TO NOTE...THE EXTENT
AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR HAS BECOME LESS AND LESS WITH EACH CYCLE.
NOW THERE ARE STILL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DEPICT A STRONGER
COLD...ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS TYPICALLY USED /GFS GEM AND ECMWF/
ARE DEPICTING A WARMER OVERALL AIRMASS. THINKING A FEW DAYS AGO WAS
FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH SUBSEQUENT WEAK
FRONTS...BUT NOW WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE PAC NW DEEPENING AND
TAKING A TRACK SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THERE MIGHT NOT BE
AS MUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE BY WAY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
BY MID-WEEK. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE...THE PROFILE REMAINS SHALLOW /SATURATED SFC TO ABOUT 700
MB/.
POPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LATER WITH TIMING AS THE UPPER
LOW SPENDS A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME WEST OF THE ROCKIES...WITH THE
BEST POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PTYPE HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS THE LIQUID SIDE...AND 00Z CYCLE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE MARGINAL
FOR WINTRY PRECIP...AND AM LEANING TOWARDS A MOSTLY RAIN/DRIZZLE.
AGAIN...THE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES IS RELATIVELY WIDE SO STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT WINTRY PRECIP. THAT SAID...HAVE SOMEWHAT BETTER
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL NOT BE ANYTHING CLOSE TO A MAJOR WINTER
STORM...AND BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA BELIEVE WORST CASE SCENARIO
WOULD BE A NUISANCE TYPE WINTER WX EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 738 PM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
AMENDED BOTH TAFS TO REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING A MORE
RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE BACK END OF THE STRATOCU DECK...ABOUT 1-2
HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BOTH TERMINALS ARE NOW MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. MAINLY CIRRUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM CURRENT LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND TO MORE OF A S-SW DIRECTION BY 06-09Z WITH SPEEDS
5-10 KTS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1023 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ARA TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1015PM UPDATE...
HAVE REVAMPED POP FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR ARE MOSTLY VIRGA FALLING OUT OF AN 8000-1000
FT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. LOTS OF DRY AIR BELOW THIS LAYER IS
PREVENTING ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING OUTSIDE
OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. AS A RESULT... POP FORECAST FOR NON-TERRAIN
AREAS HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. BEST CHANCE OF ANY
ACCUMULATING RAIN/SNOW TONIGHT WILL BE TOWARD MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH AND A HEFTIER BAND TRIES TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE
COAST. HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS FORECAST WELL.
6PM UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS MOVING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CLOUD COVER RELATIVELY LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW... UP TO AN
INCH ON THE SUMMITS.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
18Z NAM GUIDANCE IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT... AND MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT SHOULD WASHOUT IN THE
MOUNTAINS SOMEWHAT AS IT CROSSES THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS... AS INDICATED ON THE WATER
VAPOR COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS..
WITH ISOLATED GRAUPEL AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WNW FLOW WILL CAUSE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...DOWNSLOPING SUNSHINE WILL DEVELOP OVER
DOWNWIND SECTIONS.
MORE CLOUDS TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. OTHERWISE...USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAYS MAX AND OVERNIGHT MINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT IN THE LONG TERM ALLOWING FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH EVERY DAY OR TWO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE IT WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
ALTHOUGH TIMING ON THIS NOT CERTAIN. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD
WIND UP BEING NICE WARM DAYS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY. ECMWF IS
SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE GFS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...SOME VFR EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SNOW/RAIN
SHOWERS AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IFR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND GALE
WARNINGS FOR THIS PACKAGE. GALES...IF WE REACH THEM ON THE
OFFSHORE MIDCOAST WATERS...WILL BE BRIEF TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF AND
AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY THEN QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN AFTER WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SW.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
845 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A CROSSING FRONT WILL ALLOW COOLER WEATHER TO REMAIN FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
MODERATE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW
PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH 845PM UPDATE...HAVE UPPED POPS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PITTSBURGH WITH FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS HAVING HELD
TOGETHER AS THE FRONT CROSSED THE LAKE. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT...EXPECT THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT CONTINUE ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OVER LAND.
22Z HRRR AND 23Z RUC MODELS HAVE THE SHOWERS DIMINISHING BY
06Z...KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
AS OF 7PM...FIRST BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS CROSSED AT LEAST HALF
OF THE CWA...PRODUCING LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE OF RAIN. A SECOND
LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM BUFFALO ALONG LAKE ERIE TO DETROIT. THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LINE...ASSUMING IT HOLDS UP. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NEAR INTERSTATE 80 AND ALONG THE RIDGES WITH A
BRIEF SHOT OF WEST- NORTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW. ALL SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AN END BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM TODAY...REMAINING BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STRATOCU ON SUN EVE WILL ERODE QUICKLY AMID SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV TROF. GENLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THRU TUE...WHICH
WILL DO LITTLE TO ERADICATE BUILDING SFC HIPRES. A FRONTAL BNDRY
WILL STALL N OF FCST AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE DURG THIS TIME.
SHRTWV TROF ACRS CANADA TUE NGT WILL AID IN EWD EXIT OF SFC HIPRES
BY WED MRNG AS DP SRN PLNS H5 TROF AIDS DVLPMT OF LGT RETURN FLOW
AND WARM AIR ADVCTN.
MAXIMA MON AND TUE COULD REACH THE MID 50S MANY AREAS...WHILE
OVNGT MINIMA WILL CONT IN THE LOW-MID 30S. SHELTERED VLYS IN THE
MTNS COULD CONT TO DROP INTO THE 20S. WARM ADVCTN WILL INCR TUE
NGT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCRG MINIMA...GENLY MID-UPR 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED PDS TO REFLECT
GUIDANCE TRENDS. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER IN TIMING OF PASSAGE OF
STRONG SHRTWV TROF...WITH THE FORMER FOCUSING PCPN LATE THU NGT-
FRI WHILE THE FORMER CLRS MOST OF THE PCPN BY FRI MRNG. BEST CHC
FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE THU NGT-FRI MRNG. WITH 12Z MEXMOS SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS THU NGT...THERE IS A CLR SIGNAL FOR POPS WELL-
ABOVE CLIMO. SO POPS WERE INCRD TO HIGH LKLY VALUES THU NGT-FRI
MRNG. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS MADE AS TEMPS SUPPORT LIQUID PCPN. PREV
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN ON ALL MODELS FAVORS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
WEST THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME...HOWEVER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER DUE TO
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIKELY.
WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH BY THURSDAY AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA LIKELY TO BE PRE-COLD FRONTAL ON THURSDAY...A WELL
MIXED PROFILE VIA BUFKIT AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING UP ABOVE
+10C MEAN THAT THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD AGAIN RETURN INTO THE
60S...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY TO MAKE A GOOD RUN AT 70F IF A FEW
BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE WARM INTERLUDE
WILL BE FLEETING AS THE COLD FRONT RUSHES THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE GFS/DGEX AND FRIDAY ON THE ECMWF. STRONG QPF
IS EVIDENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 130 KT 250 HPA JET STREAK THAT LOOKS TO
RUN ACROSS THE AREA CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
UPON PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO QUICKLY DROP
850 HPA TEMPERATURES TOWARD -4 TO -5C ON THE CONSENSUS WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TRENDING TOWARD NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO SNOW BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND WITH
LAKE EFFECT POSSIBILITIES AGAIN LIKELY NEEDING TO BE EVALUATED.
THE ROLLER COASTER IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO START THE EXTENDED
NEAR NORMAL...TREND TOWARD ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...THEN BACK BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
FRIES
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD...HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DVLP OVRNGT AT PORTS IN LEE OF THE LAKES AND THOSE ADJACENT TO
THE RIDGES AS COLD ADVCTN ENSUES IN THE WAKE OF THE CROSSING
FRONT. LGT SHWR POTENTIAL WL CONT...BUT THE BTR CHC IS FOR PORTS
N OF PIT...HENCE THE TAF INCLUSION AT THOSE PORTS.
.OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH MID WEEK LOW
PRES.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW IN SRN QUEBEC. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWED THE FIRST PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTN AND HAS PROVIDED A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SW
QUEBEC. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS RELAXING...AND NOW THAT THE SFC PRES RISE
MAX HAS SLIPPED JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. OBS
OVER THE LAST HR OR TWO SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO DROP
ONGOING WIND ADVYS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
SHORTWAVES THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICKLY DIVING SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN AFTN. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL REACH UPPER MI TONIGHT...
RESULTING IN STEADILY BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL SHIFT ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -7/-8C. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WAA
WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE W AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W IS THE NOTABLY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W TONIGHT. WHAT PCPN
THERE IS MAY END UP MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
DEVELOPS DUE TO LAND BREEZE ENHANCED BACKING OF LARGER SCALE WINDS.
TO THE E...INVERSION IS UP AROUND 7KFT. HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE MOSTLY ABOVE THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...BACKING WINDS AND -SHRA/SN/GRAUPEL MIX AT LEAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WILL ALL WORK TO KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. MAY SEE LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
ON SUN...SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROBABLY MOVING THRU THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI
MID TO LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS BACKING TO THE WSW WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY AFTN. OTHERWISE...IF THERE IS ANY MORNING SUNSHINE...IT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS. MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS OVERTOP ADEQUATE OVERWATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PCPN WILL
DEVELOP OR BE ENHANCED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD S FROM
THE KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING TO MUCH OF THE N HALF OF UPPER MI BY 00Z
MON. WITH WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS INCREASING TO GENERALLY ABOVE
1500FT...PTYPE WILL BECOME MOSTLY RAIN...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE ERN CWA AT 00Z MON AS A 1040MB SFC
HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN CANADA CONTINUES A QUICK TRANSIT TOWARD THE
CWA. AS THE COLDER AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN SUN NIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP...LEADING TO INCREASE N-NNE WINDS
POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL
DECREASE FROM AROUND -5C TO -11C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MON. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE N-NNE WINDS WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW TO CORRESPONDING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR LES...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE OVER
THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...HELPING TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS
OF THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS IN GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF
ALMOST COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON MON AS THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OF THE SFC HIGH DOMINATE.
THE SFC HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO 1033MB AS IT MOVES TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE...MOVING TO THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED WHILE LEAVING
A 1026MB RIDGE OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME QPF OVER OR S OF
THE SRN CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO OR S OF
THE CWA AND WE START WARM ADVECTING. IN FACT...BY 12Z WED...850MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR 0C. THESE TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON TUE AND IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON WED AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 7C.
ALL THIS WARM AIR IS BEING DRAW UP INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW LEEWARD
OF THE CO ROCKIES ON TUE. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL MODELS AGREE DECENTLY ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EITHER
FROM LATE THU/THU NIGHT (12Z/25 GFS SOLUTION) OR ON FRI (00Z/25
ECMWF SOLUTION)...BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH IT AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AGAIN...EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS AND ESPECIALLY WINDS...SO THOSE ARE
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONE ASPECT IS MORE CERTAIN...AND
SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TYPE OF EVENT. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 10C AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND DO NOT FALL BELOW 0C UNTIL THE SFC LOW IS IN QUEBEC. COULD
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRI NIGHT/SAT AS MODELS
BRING COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELED 850MB TEMPS DO NOT GET THAT COLD (AROUND
-6C AT THE COLDEST) SO WOULD NEED ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF ENERGY TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR.
THIS MAY HAPPEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT ON SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
LAKE EFFECT PCPN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS WINDS BACK TO THE SW. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT PCPN. AS WINDS BACK...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AT KIWD/KSAW AS OVERWATER TRAJECTORY IS LOST. OPTED TO
LINGER A HIGH MVFR CIG AT KCMX THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD DUE
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
N OF THAT TERMINAL. AT IWD AND SAW...CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR TONIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BRING
BACK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AS WINDS AGAIN GO
BACK TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...LINGERING GALES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE...CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND INCREASED OVERWATER
INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35KT GALES SUN
EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS...
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN PREVAIL MON-WED AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH AN AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS ALL OF
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. LATER THIS EVENING FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. H850 TEMPS OF 5 TO 8C WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE VALUES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH CONSIDERING THE DEEP
MECHANICAL MIXING AND DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP...BUT LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE CONTINUES TO LOOK WET.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
THE WEEK AHEAD IS BECOMING A LITTLE CLEARER AS THE ECMWF/GFS AND GEM
HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SEVERAL PRECIPITATION
EVENTS. THE MAIN DRIVER IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON NEAR GRAHAM ISLAND. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD DROP SOUTH TO NEAR SFO BY MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY ENE TO NORTHERN MN BY THURSDAY EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING COULD REACH INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN FROM
ND TO NORTHERN MI THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING... A
WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING WAA
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE 295K THETA SURFACE
FROM ALL THREE SOLUTIONS SHOWS A PERIOD OF PRETTY STRONG ADIABATIC
OMEGA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WI TUESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY. THE SATURATION HAS A HARD TIME
REACHING MUCH FARTHER THAN CENTRAL MN DUE TO THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH AND CAN BE SEEN WELL WITH THE GFS THALER QG INSTANTANEOUS
PRECIP RATE. THE MIXING RATIOS REACH 4 G/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN
BUT ONLY FOR ABOUT A SIX HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS COUPLED WITH A BAND
OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE CORRESPONDING FN VECTORS
PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AS WELL. USED THE PROBABILITY OF WEATHER
TYPE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM GRIDS TODAY TO ADD HOURLY
RESOLUTION ALONG WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THIS IS MOST CRITICAL TUESDAY
MORNING WHEN THE THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE A LOW LEVEL WARMING TREND SETS IN THAT PERSISTS INTO
THURSDAY. HENCE.. THIS RESULTED IN A PERIOD OF SNOW TUESDAY
MORNING FROM ABOUT MONTEVIDEO THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND EAU
CLAIRE ON SOUTHWARD. SNOW CHANCES DECREASE TO THE NORTH OF THIS
LINE. SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR 1.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST ALONG I-90 WITH
AMOUNTS TAPERING BACK TO NEAR A HALF INCH IN THE TWIN CITIES. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FA IS BACK TO JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST COMES OUR WAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PASS ACROSS MN AND WI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
THE BEST AND ELEVATED CAPE IS CENTERED MORE IN IA. THEREFORE...
KEPT THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM A HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FOR FRIDAY. A
RATHER LARGE TROUGH ALOFT IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND... WITH A COOL
PATTERN RESULTING HERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
ONLY CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING TAFS WAS TO SLOW THE DEPARTURE OF
THE STRATOCU TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH CURRENT RAP DEPICTION FOR ITS
RETREAT EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH. COLD
FRONT STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS QUICKLY
BACKING TO THE SSW BY 12Z...THEN QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE NAM/GFS AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFSLAMP RUNNING A COUPLE OF
HOURS FASTER WITH THE FROPA THAN THE NAM. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
LACKING WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE ONLY WEAK SIGNAL FOR SOME POST
FRONTAL STRATOCU COMING MAINLY AFTER 00Z MON.
KMSP...
MAIN ISSUE WITH TAF IS THAT OF WIND DIRECTIONS...AS WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE BETWEEN 240 AND 180 DEGS BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. GFSLAMP
TAKES WINDS BACK NORTH OF 240 BY 17Z...WHILE THE NAM WAITS UNTIL
19Z. 00Z TAF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED WITH
REST OF TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS E AT 10G15KTS.
TUE...MVFR AND -RA...IFR CIGS/VISBY AND -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS E 10KTS.
WED...MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS WITH CHC RA. WINDS E 5 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KOFK...KLNK
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AOA 12 KT WITH GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN THE SHORTER TERM AND THEN
DEALS MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURES. PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES NEXT
WEEK WITH FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN POSSIBLE PRECIP PHASE CHANGES WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A FAST-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MANITOBA WHILE VIS/FOG IMAGERY
INDICATED A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS IN H85-H7 LAYER ADVANCING INTO
WRN FA MARKING APPROX LOCATION OF SFC WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MO VALLEY MOVES SEWD AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCD WITH NRN
WAVE ADVANCES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER CLOUDS NEAR WARM
FRONT WERE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY AS
THEY SHOULD MIX OUT/ADVANCE THRU AREA. BASICALLY NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO PRIOR FORECAST WHICH WERE SUPPORTED BY RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MAV/MET MOS BLEND. GUSTY SSW WINDS LIKELY BY MIDDAY
WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY BRISK NW WINDS ON SATURDAY AS NRN WAVE
DROPPING SE BRINGS A WEAK COOL FRONT THRU AREA. AGAIN LITTLE NEW
DATA WAS OFFERED TO MAKE MANY OR EVEN ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
QUICK MOVING SURFACE FEATURES AND FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ON SUNDAY
BRING A SHIFT BACK TO SSW WINDS AND EVEN WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES.
DRYNESS OF AIR + LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASED WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BASED ON
COOLING OBSERVED EARLY TONIGHT TRIMMED BACK LOWS SAT NGT TOWARD
GUIDANCE AND THEN BOOSTED THEM A FEW DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THEN THEY WERE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NEW MET
NUMBERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT PROBABLY BEST CENTERED ON THE MON
NIGHT/TUE PERIOD WHERE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS WERE
CARRIED. THICKNESS/H85 TEMPERATURE PROFILES OF 00Z GFS WOULD
SUPPORT ALL LIQUID AND THUS KEPT IT THAT WAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF H85 TEMPS DID DIP BELOW ZERO NRN ZONES AND
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATED POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW BUT ITS
1000-500 MB THICKNESS WAS MARGINAL. IF THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
WOULD CONTINUE...PRECIP TYPE MAY NEED CHANGING.
00Z ECMWF STILL POINTS TO A PROBABLE PRECIP LULL IN LATE TUE-WED
PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING OCCURS AS MAIN ENERGY WITH TROUGH
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE COMES OUT LATER IN THE WEEK AS A CLOSED
SYSTEM. THIS VARIES FROM MORE OPEN GFS WITH NO SOLID DRY PERIOD.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES MOST AREAS TUE
NGT AND ALL AREAS WED WAS MAINTAINED WITH CHCS THEN INCREASING
AGAIN LATE WED/THU. ALTHOUGH SOME COOLING WAS INDICATED BY
GFS...ECMWF BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO WED THUS THE REFRAIN
FOR NOW OF MENTIONING ANY SNOW IN TUE NGT/WED PERIOD. EITHER
MEASURABLE PRECIP PROBABLY WOULDN/T BE OCCURRING OR IF IT WAS IT
WOULD BE LIQUID PER THE THEN WARMER ECMWF. NO CHANGES FROM
MODEL/PREV FORECAST TEMP BLEND DUE TO THE MANY UNCERTAINTIES.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
711 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BROKEN
LAYER AROUND 5000 FT CURENTLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH 18Z WITH CLEAR TO
SCATTERED CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN THE SHORTER TERM AND THEN
DEALS MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURES. PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES NEXT
WEEK WITH FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN POSSIBLE PRECIP PHASE CHANGES WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A FAST-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MANITOBA WHILE VIS/FOG IMAGERY
INDICATED A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS IN H85-H7 LAYER ADVANCING INTO
WRN FA MARKING APPROX LOCATION OF SFC WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MO VALLEY MOVES SEWD AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCD WITH NRN
WAVE ADVANCES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER CLOUDS NEAR WARM
FRONT WERE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY AS
THEY SHOULD MIX OUT/ADVANCE THRU AREA. BASICALLY NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO PRIOR FORECAST WHICH WERE SUPPORTED BY RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MAV/MET MOS BLEND. GUSTY SSW WINDS LIKELY BY MIDDAY
WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY BRISK NW WINDS ON SATURDAY AS NRN WAVE
DROPPING SE BRINGS A WEAK COOL FRONT THRU AREA. AGAIN LITTLE NEW
DATA WAS OFFERED TO MAKE MANY OR EVEN ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
QUICK MOVING SURFACE FEATURES AND FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ON SUNDAY
BRING A SHIFT BACK TO SSW WINDS AND EVEN WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES.
DRYNESS OF AIR + LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASED WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BASED ON
COOLING OBSERVED EARLY TONIGHT TRIMMED BACK LOWS SAT NGT TOWARD
GUIDANCE AND THEN BOOSTED THEM A FEW DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THEN THEY WERE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NEW MET
NUMBERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT PROBABLY BEST CENTERED ON THE MON
NIGHT/TUE PERIOD WHERE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS WERE
CARRIED. THICKNESS/H85 TEMPERATURE PROFILES OF 00Z GFS WOULD
SUPPORT ALL LIQUID AND THUS KEPT IT THAT WAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF H85 TEMPS DID DIP BELOW ZERO NRN ZONES AND
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATED POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW BUT ITS
1000-500 MB THICKNESS WAS MARGINAL. IF THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
WOULD CONTINUE...PRECIP TYPE MAY NEED CHANGING.
00Z ECMWF STILL POINTS TO A PROBABLE PRECIP LULL IN LATE TUE-WED
PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING OCCURS AS MAIN ENERGY WITH TROUGH
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE COMES OUT LATER IN THE WEEK AS A CLOSED
SYSTEM. THIS VARIES FROM MORE OPEN GFS WITH NO SOLID DRY PERIOD.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES MOST AREAS TUE
NGT AND ALL AREAS WED WAS MAINTAINED WITH CHCS THEN INCREASING
AGAIN LATE WED/THU. ALTHOUGH SOME COOLING WAS INDICATED BY
GFS...ECMWF BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO WED THUS THE REFRAIN
FOR NOW OF MENTIONING ANY SNOW IN TUE NGT/WED PERIOD. EITHER
MEASURABLE PRECIP PROBABLY WOULDN/T BE OCCURRING OR IF IT WAS IT
WOULD BE LIQUID PER THE THEN WARMER ECMWF. NO CHANGES FROM
MODEL/PREV FORECAST TEMP BLEND DUE TO THE MANY UNCERTAINTIES.
CHERMOK
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
301 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN THE SHORTER TERM AND THEN
DEALS MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURES. PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES NEXT
WEEK WITH FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARD TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN POSSIBLE PRECIP PHASE CHANGES WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWED A FAST-MOVING UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MANITOBA WHILE VIS/FOG IMAGERY
INDICATED A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS IN H85-H7 LAYER ADVANCING INTO
WRN FA MARKING APPROX LOCATION OF SFC WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MO VALLEY MOVES SEWD AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCD WITH NRN
WAVE ADVANCES TOWARD GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER CLOUDS NEAR WARM
FRONT WERE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY AS
THEY SHOULD MIX OUT/ADVANCE THRU AREA. BASICALLY NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO PRIOR FORECAST WHICH WERE SUPPORTED BY RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MAV/MET MOS BLEND. GUSTY SSW WINDS LIKELY BY MIDDAY
WHICH WILL BE REPLACED BY BRISK NW WINDS ON SATURDAY AS NRN WAVE
DROPPING SE BRINGS A WEAK COOL FRONT THRU AREA. AGAIN LITTLE NEW
DATA WAS OFFERED TO MAKE MANY OR EVEN ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
QUICK MOVING SURFACE FEATURES AND FLATTENING UPPER FLOW ON SUNDAY
BRING A SHIFT BACK TO SSW WINDS AND EVEN WARMER H85 TEMPERATURES.
DRYNESS OF AIR + LIGHT WINDS SAT NIGHT FOLLOWED BY INCREASED WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL SWING. BASED ON
COOLING OBSERVED EARLY TONIGHT TRIMMED BACK LOWS SAT NGT TOWARD
GUIDANCE AND THEN BOOSTED THEM A FEW DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THEN THEY WERE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NEW MET
NUMBERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY BRING SEVERAL
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
AS EARLY AS MONDAY BUT PROBABLY BEST CENTERED ON THE MON
NIGHT/TUE PERIOD WHERE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS WERE
CARRIED. THICKNESS/H85 TEMPERATURE PROFILES OF 00Z GFS WOULD
SUPPORT ALL LIQUID AND THUS KEPT IT THAT WAY FOR NOW.
HOWEVER...00Z ECMWF H85 TEMPS DID DIP BELOW ZERO NRN ZONES AND
FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATED POSSIBLE CHANGE TO SNOW BUT ITS
1000-500 MB THICKNESS WAS MARGINAL. IF THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
WOULD CONTINUE...PRECIP TYPE MAY NEED CHANGING.
00Z ECMWF STILL POINTS TO A PROBABLE PRECIP LULL IN LATE TUE-WED
PERIOD AS SOME UPPER RIDGING OCCURS AS MAIN ENERGY WITH TROUGH
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE COMES OUT LATER IN THE WEEK AS A CLOSED
SYSTEM. THIS VARIES FROM MORE OPEN GFS WITH NO SOLID DRY PERIOD.
THUS PRECIP CHANCES TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCES MOST AREAS TUE
NGT AND ALL AREAS WED WAS MAINTAINED WITH CHCS THEN INCREASING
AGAIN LATE WED/THU. ALTHOUGH SOME COOLING WAS INDICATED BY
GFS...ECMWF BEGINS STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO WED THUS THE REFRAIN
FOR NOW OF MENTIONING ANY SNOW IN TUE NGT/WED PERIOD. EITHER
MEASURABLE PRECIP PROBABLY WOULDN/T BE OCCURRING OR IF IT WAS IT
WOULD BE LIQUID PER THE THEN WARMER ECMWF. NO CHANGES FROM
MODEL/PREV FORECAST TEMP BLEND DUE TO THE MANY UNCERTAINTIES.
CHERMOK
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...KOFK.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES IN THE 3000-6000 FOOT
AGL LAYER SHOULD TRY TO MOVE/SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. MODELS
OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT OVER OUR AREA...BUT MAY SEE SOME TEMPORARY BROKEN CEILINGS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BUILDS SOUTHEAST. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO
OVER 20 KNOTS FRIDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
MILLER
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A DRY COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A FROST OR FREEZE IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:30 AM FRIDAY...WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING SOME COMBINATION OF
FREEZE WATCH/FROST ADVISORY WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. STILL WORKING UP THE AREAL EXTENT
FOR THESE PRODUCTS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE. PARCELS ORIGINATING NEAR 950 MB OVER COLUMBIA ARE
BEING LIFTED TO 850 MB BY THE TIME THEY REACH INTERSTATE 95. THIS
REGION OF UPWARD ASCENT SHOULD PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. THE
CLOUDS ARE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED AND I
HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER FORECASTS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE
LUMBERTON AREA OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AS WELL...AND ALTHOUGH I HAVE MADE NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO FORECAST LOWS I AM SHOWING A NEARLY STEADY HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TREND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS
EVENING PRODUCING WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE 850 MB ZERO
LINE RUNS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE NORTHERN OZARKS...THEN
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH
TONIGHT...PUSHING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST CONCERNS HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS NEAR THE FRONT AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.
23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT JUST EAST OF DANVILLE VA TO
BURLINGTON NC...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CHARLOTTE...
GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG...AND INTO NORTH GEORGIA. THIS POSITION
APPEARS TO BE DEPICTED QUITE WELL IN THE 18Z GFS...THE 21Z HRRR...
AND THE 22Z RUC MODELS. IT IS NOT WELL-DEPICTED IN THE 18Z NAM WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED WITH THE FRONT TOO FAR WEST AND IT IS
THEREFORE THE SLOWEST OF ANY MODEL TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT.
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2500 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE VERY LIGHT
CURRENTLY AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE CALM SURFACE WINDS AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN FACT BY 11 PM WE
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES WITHIN 4-5 DEGREES OF OUR FORECAST LOWS!
INCREASING CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA) AND AN
INCREASINGLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER TEMPERATURE FALLS. I HAVE MADE
NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 40-44 RANGE.
CLOUD COVER THICKNESS OVER LBT AND ILM ACCORDING TO 18Z GFS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3500 FEET BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SPRINKLES...BUT THE RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASE AND
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD SHOULD EVAPORATE ANY
PRECIPITATION...LEAVING US WITH A DRY FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST
AROUND THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA IN ITS WAKE AND RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROST
OR FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUCH
THAT THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE A FREEZE SHOULD SOMETHING OCCUR. FOR
NOW...HAVE NOT RAISED A FREEZE WATCH AS CURRENT THINKING IS WINDS
INVOF 5 KT MAY PREVENT LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH THAT MINS
WILL REMAIN AOA FREEZING. SHOULD WINDS DROP OUT...MINS WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY AND LOW
TO MID 60S SATURDAY. MINS FRIDAY WILL FALL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM OFFERS A CONTINUATION OF THE
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OF THE PRIOR FORECAST PERIODS BUT NOT THE
WINTER-LIKE CHILL. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD WARM TO THE MID AND UPPER
60S WITH ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. THE PREVIOUSLY-DEPICTED BACKDOOR FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT IS
NOW LARGELY ABSENT IN GUIDANCE AND SO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES OF MODERATION COME MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
HIGHS MAY STILL WELL FALL 1-3 DEGREES SHY OF CLIMO. THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD SEES VERY BROAD BUT LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHINESS ACROSS
THE NATIONS MIDSECTION TRYING BUT FAILING TO PHASE SPLIT FLOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A CHILLY EAST-WEST ELONGATED HIGH TO BLEED EASTWARD
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. A WEAKER CENTER AHEAD OF THIS
AIRMASS WILL START TO WEDGE UP AGAINST THE EAST FACES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WAA OVER THE TOP OF THIS
SURFACE RIDGE BUT MIXING WILL BE RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND ANY WARMING
WILL BE VERY TEMPERED. TEMP DEVIATIONS FROM CLIMO WILL BE SMALL
THROUGHOUT AND EVENTUALLY END UP POSITIVE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL SOON BECOME...IF NOT
ALREADY...NORTHERLY AOB 5 KTS AS A DRY COLD DRY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSIS AND FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS...5-7KFT...WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN FROM LATEST 11U-3.9U SATELLITE
IMAGERY. INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH NORTH WINDS 10-15
KTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS SUBSIDE AND WINDS
BECOME NEARLY CALM AS CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:30 AM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS:
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 150-200 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST SHOULD
MAKE STEADY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS AND REACH THE NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES AROUND 4 AM...PUSHING INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. LIGHT MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS BEHIND
THE FRONT AS COLDER AIR BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET WILL
PROBABLY NOT HAVE TIME TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL BE AROUND 15 KTS TO START THE PERIOD...PERSISTING WITH THIS
SPEED/DIRECTION COMBINATION INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT...HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES EAST AND NORTHEAST...LEAVING WEAKENING WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE WATERS AS THEY VEER TO THE NE BRIEFLY AROUND 10
KTS...BEFORE BACKING ONCE AGAIN TO THE NW AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MOSTLY WIND-WAVE DOMINATED...AND BE
1-3 FT THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME 4 FT SEAS NEAR THE 20 NM BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY PROMOTING A W TO NW FLOW OF FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND OFFSHORE DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS
MINIMAL. THIS HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY...AND WHILE NOT A BONAFIDE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ANY MORE THE
WINDS SHOULD STILL VEER TO N OR NE WHILE SPEED INCREASES ABOUT 5KT.
AS THIS NE FLOW CONTINUES SEAS WILL BUILD ABOUT A FOOT MAINLY AWAY
FROM SHORE DUE TO THE COAST-PARALLEL WIND DIRECTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA/DRH
AVIATION...SGL
MARINE...REK/TRA/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
607 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH FAIR...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO JUST
THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ATTM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE
AND WEST BRANCH PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 81
IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
BUFKIT RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING STAYS TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 4-5 KFT
AGL.
TEMPS ARE AT THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
SUSQ VALLEY. THE COOL SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LAURELS WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING
UP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LAST VESTIGES OF THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ENDED TONIGHT/EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD 28-32F MINS EXPECTED. TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GLAKES AND SERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH /ACROSS OUR FCST AREA/.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TO CREATE INCREASING SW
WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /AND AROUND 25 KTS IN THE SE/.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY 8-10F IN MANY LOCATIONS...THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 3-5F BELOW NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES HANGING ON FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY IN THE
GREATER HARRISBURG...YORK... LANCASTER AREAS.
SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A LATE
NIGHT FLURRY WILL SLIDE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SAT NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL WILL TAPER OFF
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL.
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TURN A BIT UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK...AS
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACK-SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS/GEFS BRING A SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
TUES NIGHT/WED...WHILE THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS US MAINLY DRY
THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WET WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DISCREPANCY...PUT
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THE MID-LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA CONTINUES TO CLEAR AS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE NW MTNS. ALL TAF SITES REMAIN VFR. ALL SITES OUTSIDE OF BFD
ARE DECOUPLING...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. BFD WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUST THROUGH 00Z. ONCE SUNSETS AND THE WINDS SLOWLY
BACK...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL END. HOWEVER LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
RETURN BETWEEN 09-12Z TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT
TOMORROW.
SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TOMORROW...MAINLY VFR /FOLLOWED BY LATE DAY MVFR CIGS IN THE NW MTNS/ WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SW WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL
OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 KTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KBFD AND KJST...TO AROUND
25 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...AREAS OF LOW CIGS/SHRASN POSS WRN MTNS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ036-057-
059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH FAIR...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO JUST
THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ATTM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE
AND WEST BRANCH PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 81
IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
BUFKIT RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING STAYS TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 4-5 KFT
AGL.
TEMPS ARE AT THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
SUSQ VALLEY. THE COOL SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LAURELS WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING
UP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LAST VESTIGES OF THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ENDED TONIGHT/EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD 28-32F MINS EXPECTED. TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GLAKES AND SERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH /ACROSS OUR FCST AREA/.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TO CREATE INCREASING SW
WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /AND AROUND 25 KTS IN THE SE/.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY 8-10F IN MANY LOCATIONS...THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 3-5F BELOW NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES HANGING ON FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY IN THE
GREATER HARRISBURG...YORK... LANCASTER AREAS.
SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A LATE
NIGHT FLURRY WILL SLIDE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SAT NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL WILL TAPER OFF
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL.
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TURN A BIT UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK...AS
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACK-SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS/GEFS BRING A SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
TUES NIGHT/WED...WHILE THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS US MAINLY DRY
THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WET WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DISCREPANCY...PUT
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THE MID-LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING...LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS NRN PA
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS THROUGH 22Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY VFR /FOLLOWED BY LATE DAY MVFR CIGS IN THE NW MTNS/ WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SW WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL
OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 KTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KBFR AND KJST...TO AROUND
25 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...AREAS OF LOW CIGS/SHRASN POSS WRN MTNS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ036-057-
059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH FAIR...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO JUST
THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ATTM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE
AND WEST BRANCH PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 81
IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
BUFKIT RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING STAYS TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 4-5 KFT
AGL.
TEMPS ARE AT THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
SUSQ VALLEY. THE COOL SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LAURELS WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING
UP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LAST VESTIGES OF THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ENDED TONIGHT/EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD 28-32F MINS EXPECTED. TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GLAKES AND SERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH /ACROSS OUR FCST AREA/.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TO CREATE INCREASING SW
WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /AND AROUND 25 KTS IN THE SE/.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY 8-10F IN MANY LOCATIONS...THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 3-5F BELOW NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES HANGING ON FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY IN THE
GREATER HARRISBURG...YORK... LANCASTER AREAS.
SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A LATE
NIGHT FLURRY WILL SLIDE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SAT NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL SWEEP EAST
OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE
ACROSS THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD YIELD
A PARTLY SUNNY/DRY DAY EAST OF THE MTNS. THE 850 AND 925 HPA
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...SUPPORTING MAX TEMPS FROM
THE M40S W MTNS...TO M50S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND RAPIDLY MONDAY. ONLY
NORTHERN PA SHOULD BE BELOW 0C BY MONDAY EVENING. OUR 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BACK TO NORMAL
TUESDAY AND SHOULD STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IMPLIES THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND THE AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LOW.
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER AFTER THE COLD LEAVES US AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
IN OUR CURRENT PREDICTION SYSTEMS. ALL THE INTERESTING WEATHER HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING...LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS NRN PA
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN AND WESTERN
MTNS THROUGH 22Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AREA-WIDE OVERNIGHT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MAINLY VFR /FOLLOWED BY LATE DAY MVFR CIGS IN THE NW MTNS/ WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SW WINDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS WILL
OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 13Z...WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 KTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT KBFR AND KJST...TO AROUND
25 KTS ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY INVOF KMDT AND KLNS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...AREAS OF LOW CIGS/SHRASN POSS WRN MTNS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ036-057-
059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1238 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SET UP FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END FOR
FOR MOST OF THE NW MTNS...EXCEPT FOR SOME COMMUNITIES NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF ROUTE 6 WHERE THEY WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS.
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS IN THE U30S.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE AND WEST BRANCH
PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 81 IN
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
BUFKIT RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES TO 4-5 KFT AGL.
TEMPS WILL RISE ANOTHER 2-4F OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND FCST HIGH
FROM THE L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L50S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. THE ONLY LOCATION
THAT WILL LIKELY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS /AND PREVIOUS FCST MAXES/
WILL BE THE LAURELS WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S.
WILL BE ADJUSTING OUR HOURLY...AND HIGH TEMP GRIDS DOWN BY SEVERAL
DEG IN THAT AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...CONDS APPEAR
MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR FINALLY SEEING A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT...AS SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA
TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHTER WIND. DEPENDING ON
WHAT THE MIN TEMPS ARE THIS AM...WILL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
FREEZE WARNING OVR THE SE ZONES FOR TONIGHT. OVR THE NW MTNS...WHERE
A FEW LE FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...A BACKING FLOW TO
THE SW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LAKE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE BORDER.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH OFF THE E COAST AND APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY SW WIND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS
BTWN 30-35KTS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE CWA...AND 20-25KTS OVR THE
LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE BEFORE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE
AFTN AND EVENING. MDL THERMAL PROFILES LOOK JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE SATURDAY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING ASSOC WITH PARENT
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY JUST CLIP NW PA...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING SW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE STILL FEEL A
BIT CHILLY FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD YIELD A PARTLY SUNNY/DRY DAY EAST OF THE MTNS. THE
850 AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...SUPPORTING
MAX TEMPS FROM THE M40S W MTNS...TO M50S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND RAPIDLY MONDAY. ONLY
NORTHERN PA SHOULD BE BELOW 0C BY MONDAY EVENING. OUR 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BACK TO NORMAL
TUESDAY AND SHOULD STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IMPLIES THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND THE AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LOW.
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER AFTER THE COLD LEAVES US AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
IN OUR CURRENT PREDICTION SYSTEMS. ALL THE INTERESTING WEATHER HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIGHTENING UP AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS ACROSS NW PA LATE THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF KBFD AND KJST...BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE AREAS
OF MVFR STRATO CU WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT THE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 18-20 AS THE
COOLEST AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SPEEDS OF 10-13 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT/SUN...AREAS OF LOW CIGS/SHRASN POSS WRN MTNS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004-005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY SET UP FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
INTO PENNSYLVANIA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DWINDLING IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND JUST SOME BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND WET SNOW
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND LAURELS.
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 81 WILL SEE
SOME SCT-BKN SHALLOW STRATO CU DEVELOPING FOR THE AFTERNOON PRIOR
TO THE POOL OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEARLY 7C PER KM/
DRIFTING EAST AND OFF THE NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
BUFKIT RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS IN THE LOW-MID 20 KT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES TO 4-5 KFT AGL.
ENS MEAN 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS TODAY FROM THE L40S OVR THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONDS APPEAR MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR FINALLY SEEING A FREEZE
ACROSS SOUTHERN PA TONIGHT...AS SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA
TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND A LIGHTER WIND. DEPENDING ON
WHAT THE MIN TEMPS ARE THIS AM...WILL PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING OVR THE SE ZONES FOR TONIGHT. OVR THE NW
MTNS...WHERE A FEW LE FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...A
BACKING FLOW TO THE SW SHOULD PUSH ANY REMAINING LAKE ACTIVITY
NORTH OF THE BORDER.
A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH OFF THE E COAST AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY SW WIND ON SATURDAY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS BTWN 30-35KTS ACROSS THE NW AND 20-25KTS
OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
MDL TIMING OF FRONT SUGGESTS MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL SEE A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE BEFORE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE
AFTN AND EVENING. MDL THERMAL PROFILES LOOK JUST COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES LATE SATURDAY. BEST LG SCALE FORCING ASSOC WITH PARENT
SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY JUST CLIP NW PA...SO DON/T EXPECT MUCH
PRECIP AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE.
SUNSHINE AND MODERATING SW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
MILDER SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE STILL FEEL A
BIT CHILLY FOR LATE OCTOBER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A FEW -SHRA COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NW MTNS. HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD YIELD A PARTLY SUNNY/DRY DAY EAST OF THE MTNS. THE
850 AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY...SUPPORTING
MAX TEMPS FROM THE M40S W MTNS...TO M50S LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
850 HPA TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND RAPIDLY MONDAY. ONLY
NORTHERN PA SHOULD BE BELOW 0C BY MONDAY EVENING. OUR 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE BACK TO NORMAL
TUESDAY AND SHOULD STAY NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SO NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
A MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IMPLIES THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN WESTERN AREAS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT VERY HIGH AND THE AMOUNTS ARE
VERY LOW.
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER AFTER THE COLD LEAVES US AND NO MAJOR SYSTEMS
IN OUR CURRENT PREDICTION SYSTEMS. ALL THE INTERESTING WEATHER HAS
SHIFTED WELL TO OUR WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIGHTENING UP AND DECREASING IN COVERAGE
ACROSS ACROSS NW PA LATE THIS MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF KBFD AND KJST...BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE AREAS
OF MVFR STRATO CU WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY
REGION...BUT THE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 18-20 AS THE
COOLEST AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO SPEEDS OF 10-13 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SUNSET.
SFC HIGH PASSES JUST SOUTH OF PA TONIGHT...BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
SAT NIGHT/SUN...AREAS OF LOW CIGS/SHRASN POSS WRN MTNS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR PAZ004-005.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...GRUMM/FITZGERALD
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1026 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THIS COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL LINGER
ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...ALL MENTION OF NW FLOW PRECIP THIS MORNING WAS
REMOVED FROM FCST AND CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP IN THE NRN NC MTNS SO
ANY LINGERING FLURRIES ARE LIKELY SOON TO END. TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED
WELL INTO THE PIEDMONT PER WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS...WITH
DIMINISHING RADAR RETURNS IN THE FOOTHILLS OF NE TN AND SW VA.
ADJUSTED TEMPS PER LATEST TRENDS BUT HIGHS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY MIDLEVEL
STRATOCU OVER THE CHARLOTTE AREA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT PERSIST
THRU THE DAY.
AS OF 245 AM...AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWFA AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING MID-UPR FORCING TO THE EAST. SFC HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST UNDER THE CONFLUENT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...SETTLING IN ATOP THE WRN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...LLVL CAA WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST MIDDAY. BUT LLVL NW FLOW MOISTURE SHUD DRY OUT BY AROUND 12Z.
SO A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP FOR NW FLOW SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO TAPER OFF BY THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WAY BELOW
NORMAL TODAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MTNS AND GENERALLY MID TO
UPR 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT UNDER SUNNY/MSUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT...NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET.
MET/MAV CONSENSUS WITH A BLEND OF A LITTLE COOP MOS RESULTS IN
FREEZING MIN TEMPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE THERMAL BELT FROM
STEPHENS CO GA TO NEAR DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE. SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH
UPGRADING THE ENTIRE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS MORNING
PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS OUT TO THE NE. A WEAK WAVE WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
INSTEAD...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND
SINK FARTHER S ACROSS THE SE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OF SORTS
SHOULD LAY OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT BUT FORCING IS ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT AND WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS NOT THAT CONDUCIVE TO
UPSLOPE PRECIP ON THE TN BORDER. WILL REMOVE ANY SMALL AREAS OF
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT LEAVES TEMPS
AS THE MAIN PROBLEM. WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT...MIN TEMP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT TWO
CATEGORIES WARMER THAN TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE FROST
REALM...SO THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING. HEIGHTS REBOUND SUNDAY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS...HIGH
TEMPS MIGHT CLIMB ABOUT TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED DISPARITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET ENOUGH WITH
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS AN OLD
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL...WHICH
AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
ONGOING FCST CHANCE POP FOR WEDNESDAY WAS UNCHANGED AS IT REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY AND HAS ITS BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE N. THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...THURSDAY ON THE GFS AND FRIDAY ON THE ECMWF.
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT /15Z UPDATE/...SCT MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN HERE
AND THERE TODAY AS MOISTURE FILTERS ACRS THE MTNS...BUT SKIES SHUD
BE GENERALLY CLEAR. PERHAPS FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP WITH BASES
AROUND 5000 FT TOWARD MIDDAY PER NAM BUFKIT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NLY
TO NNELY GENERALLY 5-10 KTS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUST LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTN POSSIBLE. SKC AND LGT NELY WIND OVERNIGHT.
AT KAVL /15Z UPDATE/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKY COVER WILL
REMAIN THE DENSEST ACRS THE MTNS EARLY TODAY AS NW UPSLOPE FLOW
HELPS TO ENHANCE LIFT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THRU MIDDAY. A NLY CHANNELED VLY WIND WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTS IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE PROBABLY EARLY TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. A
PIREP WAS RECEIVED AROUND 13Z INDICATING LLWS DURING LANDING AT
KAVL. THIS APPEARED TO BE DUE TO SPEED SHEAR AS DIRECTIONS ALOFT ARE
SOLIDLY NW TO NNW. EVEN HI RES MODELS DO NOT INDICATE LLWS LATER
TODAY AND WINDS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL FOR SPEED SHEAR. THUS WILL
OMIT FROM TAF.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLEAR BUT WITH A FEW VFR CLOUDS ACRS THE NC
PIEDMONT WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL SITES...INCREASING
DURING THE DAYTIME TO AROUND THE 6-8KTS RANGE. SKC AND LIGHT WIND AT
ALL SITES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE MTNS WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-14Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION...
AFTERNOON FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE EACH DAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS...HOWEVER...SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ037-071-082-509-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
735 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SETTLE OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT. THIS COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL LINGER
ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK
DOWN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
730 AM UPDATE...ALL MENTION OF NW FLOW PRECIP THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
REMOVED FROM FCST. TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED THE MTNS PER WV IMAGERY
AND RAP ANALYSIS...AND NO RETURNS ARE VISIBLE ON RADAR IN OUR MTNS.
CLOUDS THERE DO INDICATE SOME MOISTURE STILL PRESENT AND A FEW
FLURRIES CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT SEEMS
UNLIKELY. REST OF FCST ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
AS OF 245 AM...AN UPR LVL TROF AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWFA AROUND 12Z
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING MID-UPR FORCING TO THE EAST. SFC HIGH PRES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST UNDER THE CONFLUENT NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...SETTLING IN ATOP THE WRN CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH APPROACHES...LLVL CAA WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST MIDDAY. BUT LLVL NW FLOW MOISTURE SHUD DRY OUT BY AROUND 12Z.
SO A SLGT CHC TO LOW-END CHC POP FOR NW FLOW SHWR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO TAPER OFF BY THAT TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WAY BELOW
NORMAL TODAY...IN THE 30S AND 40S IN THE MTNS AND GENERALLY MID TO
UPR 50S ACRS THE PIEDMONT UNDER SUNNY/MSUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT...NEARLY OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET.
MET/MAV CONSENSUS WITH A BLEND OF A LITTLE COOP MOS RESULTS IN
FREEZING MIN TEMPS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE THERMAL BELT FROM
STEPHENS CO GA TO NEAR DOWNTOWN GREENVILLE. SO FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH
UPGRADING THE ENTIRE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS MORNING
PACKAGE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN. THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME NEARLY ZONAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PULLS OUT TO THE NE. A WEAK WAVE WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
INSTEAD...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND
SINK FARTHER S ACROSS THE SE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OF SORTS
SHOULD LAY OUT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT BUT FORCING IS ALMOST
NON-EXISTENT AND WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB IS NOT THAT CONDUCIVE TO
UPSLOPE PRECIP ON THE TN BORDER. WILL REMOVE ANY SMALL AREAS OF
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THAT LEAVES TEMPS
AS THE MAIN PROBLEM. WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT...MIN TEMP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ABOUT TWO
CATEGORIES WARMER THAN TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE FROST
REALM...SO THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING. HEIGHTS REBOUND SUNDAY WITH THE
ZONAL FLOW...AND WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MTNS...HIGH
TEMPS MIGHT CLIMB ABOUT TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT FRIDAY...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED DISPARITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF WEATHER SYSTEMS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT QUIET ENOUGH WITH
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS AN OLD
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY. THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE ZONAL...WHICH
AFFECTS THE PLACEMENT OF AN E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
ONGOING FCST CHANCE POP FOR WEDNESDAY WAS UNCHANGED AS IT REMAINS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY AND HAS ITS BOUNDARY
WELL TO THE N. THE NEXT ISSUE IS THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT...THURSDAY ON THE GFS AND FRIDAY ON THE ECMWF.
BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISAGREE...NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AROUND 7000-8000 FT CONTINUE TO HOLD
ON...BUT ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING ON SAT IMAGERY. FROM
THERE...SKIES SHUD BE GENERALLY CLEAR...WITH PERHAPS FEW-SCT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES AROUND 5000 FT TOWARD MIDDAY PER NAM BUFKIT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NLY TO NNELY GENERALLY 5-10 KTS...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUST LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN POSSIBLE. SKC AND
LGT NELY WIND OVERNIGHT.
AT KAVL...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHO...CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
MVFR CIG WITH NW FLOW MOISTURE WORKING UP THE VLY EARLY THIS AM.
OTHERWISE...SKY COVER WILL REMAIN THE DENSEST ACRS THE MTNS EARLY
TODAY AS NW UPSLOPE FLOW HELPS TO ENHANCE LIFT. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY MID MORNING THUS ALLOWING FOR
SKIES TO SCATTER. A NLY CHANNELED VLY WIND WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTS
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE PROBABLY THRU MID MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY CLEAR BUT WITH A FEW VFR CLOUDS ACRS THE NC
PIEDMONT...AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF LAKE INDUCED FOG THRU 13Z OR SO
AFFECTING KHKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY AT ALL
SITES...INCREASING DURING THE DAYTIME TO AROUND THE 6-8KTS RANGE.
SKC AND LIGHT WIND AT ALL SITES EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE MTNS WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT IN MANY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. IN ADDITION...
AFTERNOON FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE EACH DAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS...HOWEVER...SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
GAZ017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ037-071-082-509-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
SCZ001>014-019.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...ARK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK/WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
958 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY...AT 9PM...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS DIGGING SSE-WARD TOWARDS
THE ARKLATEX BORDER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO AREA. THESE FEATURES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT
REGION. SOME SINKING MOTION LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING ANY SHOWERS FROM REACHING OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM NOW UNTIL 12Z. HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AROUND THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS IN WEST TENNESSEE AS DENSE CLOUD
COVER WILL PREVENT ANY RAPID COOLING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES...AS OF 9PM...ARE RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO THE WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.
AC3
&&
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SAINT LOUIS
AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND INTO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
TEXARKANA...PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE CHALLENGE IN THIS
FORECAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE MID SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INCLUDING THE 3KM HRRR INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE.
NONETHELESS...THINK BEST CHANCES RAIN /ISOLATED-SCATTERED
COVERAGE/ WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF DFW WAS MOVING E/SE AT 2330Z...AND
SHOULD PASS MAINLY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTH MS TOWARD 06Z...BUT
LIKELY WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES TOWARD 18Z...ALONG A WEAK WARM
FRONT.
MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z NEAR AND SOUTH OF
MEM. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 65 52 74 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 43 63 45 71 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 44 63 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 45 67 48 74 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SAINT LOUIS
AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND INTO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
TEXARKANA...PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE CHALLENGE IN THIS
FORECAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE MID SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INCLUDING THE 3KM HRRR INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE.
NONETHELESS...THINK BEST CHANCES RAIN /ISOLATED-SCATTERED
COVERAGE/ WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS
AREA OF SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF DFW WAS MOVING E/SE AT 2330Z...AND
SHOULD PASS MAINLY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTH MS TOWARD 06Z...BUT
LIKELY WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES TOWARD 18Z...ALONG A WEAK WARM
FRONT.
MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z NEAR AND SOUTH OF
MEM. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
924 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AN MCS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE SOUTH SLOWLY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT IN FRONT OF
THE MCS HAVE BEEN PUSHING EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH THE CWA. STILL COULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THESE CELLS LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR AND
TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES BY 6Z OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THE
REMNANTS OF THE MCS WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST. MADE TWEAKS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CLOUD COVER ALSO APPEARS THAT
IT WILL HANG AROUND TOMORROW. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS A TAD
FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
EAST WEST LINE OF STORMS NOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS IS PROGGED BY
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE LINE COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. AS FAR AS TIMING EXPECTING IT TO REACH CLL AND UTS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...CXO CLOSER TO 10Z...IAH AROUND 12Z...AND HOU
AND SGR 13-14Z. SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THIS
BAND. NOT SURE ABOUT THE IMPACTS FOR LBX AND GLS...AS LINE WILL BE
PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER VORT THAT IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
THIS LINE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER. AFTER LINE PASSES
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VARIABLE WINDS...THEN SW TO S WINDS
SHOULD BECOME REESTABLISHED. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEEING ISO/WIDELY SCT DEVELOPMENT OVER SC TX THIS AFTN WITH DEEP-
ENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING...ALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/
MOVEMENT OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. POPS SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE
W/NW BY SUN AFTN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL BRIEF AS ONSHORE
WINDS QUICKLY RECOVER. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL
MAKE FOR WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SE TX DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...THROUGH THURS. WHILE THE BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE CON-
FINED TO JUST AHEAD OF/WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THURS (AFTN OR NIGHT DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE)...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ISO/WIDELY SCT WAA TYPE SHRA FOR THE COASTAL/NEAR COAST-
AL LOCATIONS BY LATE TUES NIGHT/EARLY WEDS MORNING. FAVOURING THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT (AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST OF LATE). WILL BE KEEP-
ING A CLOSE EYE ON LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE WITH TRENDS
OF LESS LIFT/WEAKER CAA WITH/BEHIND THIS FROPA. 41
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK KEEPING SEAS AT LOW/MODERATE LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE
PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
IN OFFSHORE AREAS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT AND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH OFF THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 76 63 84 65 / 60 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 77 64 84 65 / 50 60 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 78 69 82 71 / 20 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
624 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN DECK BEGINNING TO THIN OUT THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INLAND CIGS AROUND 6000...WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10000 AT KBRO. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASE TO
NEAR CALM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURN TO
10 TO 12 KNOTS BEFORE NOON TOMORROW...WHILE SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN
CIGS AT 4000 TO 5000 REDEVELOP BY NOON AND SPREAD INLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL HELP PUSH THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING FROM
THE SOUTH INCREASING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW THE
SLOW INCREASE OF PWATS REACHING 1.32 INCHES THIS MORNING. AS THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR RAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND WITH THE E/SE FLOW...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAIN VERY
LOW WITH A SILENT 10 ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT REMAIN BRIEF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WARMER TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT
REACHING THE 70S ALONG THE RIVER AND THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN
RANCHLAND.
INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER THAN
TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT THE 1000-500 MB RH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 40 PERCENT LEVEL BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER VALLEY NEARLY REACHING
THE 90 DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL AND FORECAST
THINKING FOR THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE A REHASH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WITH STILL A WIDE SPREAD
BETWEEN TIMING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
MAIN ELEMENTS OF CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING SE-S WIND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WINDS TUES/WED. ALSO...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
EVENTUALLY VEERS A BIT WEST OF SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. AS MENTIONED LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS.
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTH TEXAS TO LIE ON THE WESTERN END OF WARM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
CAMP WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO SINK MORE SOUTH
THEN KICK EAST INITIALLY. THE CLOSE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THURSDAY LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH
OF TEXAS. THE FLOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL TO EVEN SOUTHWEST. THIS IS NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR FRONT PASSAGES. THE LATEST GFS MOS TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF ONLY SHOW A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FRONT WHICH IS NOT EVEN
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NOVEMBER. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND SOME
WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. GFS IS TRENDING A BIT STRONG
NEARING 30 MPH BETWEEN HWY 69E/69C BUT WILL TREND IN THE BREEZY
/15-25MPH/ RANGE AND HOLD OFF ON THE WINDY /20-30/UNTIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. 925-850MB WINDS JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL DECENT IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES SAME THINKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT ANOMALIES TO REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
POST TROUGH/FRONT AS MENTIONED ONLY A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IS
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. ONE ELEMENT OF NOTE IS THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. PWATS ARE ADVERTISED TO JUMP ABOVE THE 1.5 THRESHOLD
TUESDAY AND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE IN
FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT TOO MUCH WIND AND NOT THE BEST DIRECTION
FOR AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. QUESTION ARISES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHER END
CHANCE POPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOWER END WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. DUE TO THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SURF WATERS MOVES CLOSE TO THE DUNES. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
LOWERING INTO SUNDAY. SINCE TIDES HAVE BEEN 1FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED...WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WATERS TO PUSH UP
TO THE DUNE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING BUT
WILL FORCE FOR SOME BEACH ACCESS TO BE CLOSE. THERE IS A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK DUE TO THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
MONDAY BECOMING STRONG TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND POSSIBLY FOR AN EXTENDED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SCA/S WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAYTIME AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONGER SCA
CRITERIA WINDS COULD LINGER OVER THE LAGUNA WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
64/51
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
625 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS OCCURRING THIS MORN IN ANGLETON
WHEREAS FOG IS LIMITING KLBX`S SFC VISBIES TO UNDER A MILE.
PERIODIC LIFR WILL NOT LAST MUCH PAST 14Z AS EASTERLY WINDS AND
WARMING EVAPORATE ANY LINGERING FOG. BRISK EASTERLY AFTERNOON
WINDS...THICKER HIGH OVERCAST LATTER TODAY. A TIGHTER NE-TO-SW
EARLY SATURDAY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID IN KEEPING THE FOG
THREAT LOW PER MORE EFFICIENT MID-LAYER SW-S WIND MIX DOWN. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA AREA WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN AND BRING THE AREA ITS BEST
RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL THINK HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. WEATHER
STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RISING HUMIDITIES AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST. MODELS HAVE YET TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...AND THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. AS OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE NO STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE THE MONTH COMES TO AN END. 42
MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN-EXPANDING
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-CENTERED HIGH PUSHING A BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. AS THESE PUMPED UP EAST WINDS TRAVEL
WESTWARD...MID TO LATE MORNING EASTERN WATER SMALL CRAFT CAUTION
FLAGS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON TO ENCOMPASS ALL
GULF & BAY WATERS. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ELEVATED SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS EARLY WORK WEEK SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
WINDS & SEAS RESPONDING TO AT LEAST CAUTION LEVELS (MAYBE ADVISORY?)
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 31
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT IS NOT REAL EASY TO FIND THIS EVENING...BUT APPEARS
THERE IS A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NE AREAS. BOTH THE NAM
AND RAP SHOW THAT THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INLAND...BUT WILL INCREASE
NEAR THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND
CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 54 79 62 76 / 0 10 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 54 80 63 79 / 0 10 10 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 65 78 68 78 / 0 10 10 20 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARIZONA AREA WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS LOW AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE NOW A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN AND BRING THE AREA ITS BEST
RAIN CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. STILL THINK HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AVERAGE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH. WEATHER
STORY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RISING HUMIDITIES AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NEXT DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST. MODELS HAVE YET TO COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...AND THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. AS OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE NO STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
BEFORE THE MONTH COMES TO AN END. 42
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A SOUTHERN-EXPANDING
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY-CENTERED HIGH PUSHING A BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS COASTLINE. AS THESE PUMPED UP EAST WINDS TRAVEL
WESTWARD...MID TO LATE MORNING EASTERN WATER SMALL CRAFT CAUTION
FLAGS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON TO ENCOMPASS ALL
GULF & BAY WATERS. MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WITH ELEVATED SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS EARLY WORK WEEK SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THE ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
WINDS & SEAS RESPONDING TO AT LEAST CAUTION LEVELS (MAYBE ADVISORY?)
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 31
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT IS NOT REAL EASY TO FIND THIS EVENING...BUT APPEARS
THERE IS A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NE AREAS. BOTH THE NAM
AND RAP SHOW THAT THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INLAND...BUT WILL INCREASE
NEAR THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND
CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 54 79 62 76 / 0 10 20 40 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 54 80 63 79 / 0 10 10 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 65 78 68 78 / 0 10 10 20 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1
PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
BAY.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
NM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1132 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 6Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY NEAR CROCKETT... BUT NOT EASY TO
FIND AS WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS ARE OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES
THIS MORNING AT THE RURAL SITES. NAM SPECIFIC HUMIDITY PROFILES
SUPPORT THIS BUT THINK NAM IS OVERDONE GIVEN AMDAR SOUNDING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 23
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT IS NOT REAL EASY TO FIND THIS EVENING...BUT APPEARS
THERE IS A BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NE AREAS. BOTH THE NAM
AND RAP SHOW THAT THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INLAND...BUT WILL INCREASE
NEAR THE COAST TOWARD MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND
CURRENT FCST MIN TEMPS APPEAR ON TRACK.
33
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 82 53 76 54 80 / 0 0 10 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 84 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 63 76 65 79 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
552 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE GULF COAST WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
DIVING SE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE RAMPING UP...WITH
SOME GUSTS NOW REACHING INTO THE 20 KT RANGE. WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOW A DEEP DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. FORCING IS
EXCELLENT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA A LITTLE
LATER...BUT SHOULD LARGELY BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH SUCH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TO -5 TO -6C WHICH IS PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT DO START TO VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY LATE.
WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMS UNDER A HALF INCH.
THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PEAK THIS EVENING.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PORTRAY 925-900MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 50-55
KTS THIS EVENING...BUT NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RATHER LOW FOR THESE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
LAND. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DOOR PENINSULA HOWEVER. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH OF AN OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE BAY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.
1000-900MB DELTA T/S ARE 10C WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MIXING
TO OCCUR OVER THE BAY. SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH
GUSTS...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...WILL HOIST
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR FOR 00-09Z. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BAY
SHORE AND THE HIGHER BLUFFS HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06-09Z...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SHOULD SEE A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 30S WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL SHOW UNDER AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE
NORTH WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BACKDOOR IT/S WAY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
QUITE DRY. IT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
AFTER THAT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS BRINGS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FRUITLESS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
POTENT BUT MOISTURE STARVED WX SYSTEM WL RACE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. INCRG WINDS...PRIMARILY ABV THE SFC...WL
GENERATE SIG LLWS THIS EVENING. THAT WL ABATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
TURN NW AND CAA BEGINS...PROMOTING MORE MIXING AND LESS SHEAR.
SOME MVFR CIGS WL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE N LATE TNGT AND FOR SAT
MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND
03-06Z/SAT...AS 925-900 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50-55 KTS. STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING NE OF THE RGN AROUND THIS
TIME...AND DECENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...DESPITE
STG WAA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE BAY...DUE TO
FUNNELING OF SW WINDS...AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORELINE OF DOOR COUNTY. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KTS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES SHOULD KEEP GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
SUSPECT THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN BAY AND DEATHS DOOR
AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........MPC
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE GULF COAST WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
DIVING SE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE RAMPING UP...WITH
SOME GUSTS NOW REACHING INTO THE 20 KT RANGE. WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOW A DEEP DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. FORCING IS
EXCELLENT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA A LITTLE
LATER...BUT SHOULD LARGELY BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH SUCH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TO -5 TO -6C WHICH IS PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT DO START TO VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY LATE.
WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMS UNDER A HALF INCH.
THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PEAK THIS EVENING.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PORTRAY 925-900MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 50-55
KTS THIS EVENING...BUT NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RATHER LOW FOR THESE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
LAND. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DOOR PENINSULA HOWEVER. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH OF AN OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE BAY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.
1000-900MB DELTA T/S ARE 10C WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MIXING
TO OCCUR OVER THE BAY. SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH
GUSTS...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...WILL HOIST
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR FOR 00-09Z. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BAY
SHORE AND THE HIGHER BLUFFS HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06-09Z...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SHOULD SEE A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 30S WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL SHOW UNDER AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE
NORTH WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BACKDOOR IT/S WAY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
QUITE DRY. IT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
AFTER THAT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS BRINGS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FRUITLESS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...STRONG
SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS EARLY THIS EVENING AS BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ARE DEPICTING 50-55 KTS AT 925MB. THIS WILL
DEFINITELY LEAD TO LLWS ACROSS THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA. WINDS WILL PARTIALLY
SUBSIDE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT LLWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z SAT MORNING.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING OVER FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER
PENINSULA. AFTER A LITTLE BREAK IN THE ACTION...COLDER AIR
FILTERING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND
03-06Z/SAT...AS 925-900 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50-55 KTS. STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING NE OF THE RGN AROUND THIS
TIME...AND DECENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...DESPITE
STG WAA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE BAY...DUE TO
FUNNELING OF SW WINDS...AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORELINE OF DOOR COUNTY. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KTS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES SHOULD KEEP GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
SUSPECT THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN BAY AND DEATHS DOOR
AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
WIZ022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...THE SFC CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
S-CNTRL QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND WRN NY AT THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE SHORES FOR AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER W-CNTRL NY. THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN HAS
DRIED UP OVER THE FCST AREA...AND MUCH OF IT HAS ERODED DUE TO THE
DRY LOW LEVELS THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE 00Z KALB SOUNDING BELOW THE
775 HPA LAYER. THE T/TD DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE...AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS ONLY RECEIVED MAINLY SPRINKLES. THE PCPN SHOULD
INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z-06Z BASED ON THE HRRR WITH THE FRONT
APPROACHING THE NW ZONES /WRN DACKS/...WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE
BEING TAPPED.
HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE CONTINUED OVER THE WRN DACKS...AND
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES
MORE MOISTURE STARVED...AS IT HEADS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 06Z-12Z. ONLY SLIGHT OR VERY
LOW CHC POPS WERE CONTINUED FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE LOWERED TO AN
INCH OR SO OVER THE WRN DACKS. FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 1000 FT WEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL DEPEND HOW FAST THE COLD ADVECTION SWEEPS IN BTWN 06Z-
12Z...WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED. OVERALL...THIS IS SHAPING
UP AS A VERY LIGHT PCPN EVENT. LOWS STILL LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE
U20S OVER THE SRN DACKS TO M30S OVER THE CAPITAL REGION...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND NW CT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY...LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN THE VALLEYS
WITH STILL A CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES.
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SO THERE
COULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS THE LOW STARTS TO
BACK TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ONTARIO. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AS THE FLOW
SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSITORY WITH SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S.
THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD PASS BY NORTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE AS WELL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO
LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE FAST UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEMS...AND TIMING OF RAIN AND DRY PERIODS...AS WELL AS CLOUD
COVER TRENDS...WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WITH EACH SET OF GUIDANCE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TUE NT-WED...BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES...A FAST MOVING
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER IMPULSE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE SFC REFLECTION...AND DEGREE OF MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
ACROSS OUR REGION. THE 12Z/GEFS...GFS AND GEM INDICATE THAT A SFC
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION TUE NT-WED MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTES TO LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE REGION. THE ECMWF APPEARS A BIT LESS EMPHATIC OVERALL WITH SFC
REFLECTION AND QPF...AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL INDICATE
SLIGHT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURS AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH
OF THE REGION. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH COLD AIR WOULD BE IN
PLACE TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND
INTERSTATE 90 NORTH...SHOULD PRECIP REACH THAT FAR NORTH. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP TO TAPER OFF BY WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT TUE NT/WED AM MINS TO
FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S...WITH WED MAX TEMPS REACHING THE 40S IN
MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
WED NT-THU NT...WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE INDICATED THE CHANCES POPS
FOR SHOWERS FOR THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
MID 30S WED NT...RISE INTO THE 50S ON THU...AND DROP TO 45-50 FOR
THU NT.
FRI-SAT...A DYNAMIC SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINDY
WEATHER...ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S IN
VALLEYS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT MINS FRI
NT/SAT AM MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE COLD ADVECTION MAY BE A
BIT MODIFIED SINCE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH COULD SET UP FAR ENOUGH
WEST TO KEEP THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR JUST TO THE WEST. HIGHS
SATURDAY AROUND 60 TO MID 60S...MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SPOTTY
OR ISOLD SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH ABOUT
10Z. VCSH GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE SPRINKLES IN THE AREA. ANY MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD BE TOO BRIEF TO MENTION IN TAFS THROUGH 12Z-13Z SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE...BUT BEST CHANCES FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS WOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE TAF SITES BTWN 10Z-13Z...THE
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOME SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND DECREASING TO SKC THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS WILL VEER TO W/SW AFTER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE
WEST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...SHSN.
WED-WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH
THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...IT WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE
SHOWERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
OVERALL RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER.
ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK FROM A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...KL/NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR
TODAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON
MONDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OFF THE COAST LATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE EARLY ON SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FAIRLY SHARP MID-LVL SHRTWV TROF IS MOVG EWD THROUGH PA AND IS
FCST TO BE OFF THE NJ COAST BY AROUND 12Z. THE RAP INDICATES
STRONG DOWNWARD VV AND DRYING BEHIND THE TROF WHICH IS HELPING TO
DECREASE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF PA ATTM. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD SO THAT BY SUNRISE THE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE CLEARED OVER
MOST OF ERN PA AS WELL AS NJ AND NRN DELMARVA. THE ASSOCD SFC
FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED IN THE SFC OBS BUT THERE IS
A DEFINITE WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WEST. MID CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPS FROM FALLING...BUT WITH A
CLEARING TREND TEMPS MAY FALL YET A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY...THERE IS ONLY RATHER WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YDAY. WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE PBL ARE FCST AT 20-25
KT AND MIXING SHOULD BRING MOMENTUM DOWN RESULTING IN SOME
GUSTINESS AT TIMES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
RATHER FLAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW RH AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN A CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. WITH GOOD
RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE IN THE 30S EXCEPT LOW 40S
IN AND AROUND PHILA METRO AREA AND NEAR THE SHORE. FOR AREAS WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE...SOME SCT FROST IS POSSIBLE
BUT A FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LOSE IT INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK AS
THE FEATURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
ON MONDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO COVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS
WELL AS THE ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY
IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION LATE ON MONDAY. THE
SEGMENT THAT SHOULD AFFECT US WILL LIKELY HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST LATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE DEPARTING CYCLONIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME RAIN WITH THE FEATURE. FOR NOW, WE
WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. IF THE TREND CONTINUES
IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF THE MODELS, WE WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD ON REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ITS AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING DRY WEATHER DURING THAT PERIOD.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
WE WILL INDICATE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO TIME THE COLD FRONT`S ARRIVAL FOR EARLY ON
SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRY AIR RESULTING IN
A DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TOWARD NORMAL
AFTER EARLY SATURDAY`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF FCST PERIOD AND WELL BEYOND.
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCD WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ARE RAPIDLY
CLEARING EWD AND WILL SOON BE OUT OF THE PICTURE. EARLIER SW WIND
HAVE MOSTLY SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SHOULD CONT FROM THE W TO WNW
TODAY. SOME 15 TO 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME TODAY WITH
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AND BECOME 5
KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST WATERS HAS BEEN
LEFT AS IS FOR NOW...BEING SET TO EXPIRE AT 600 AM. EARLIER GUSTY
SW WINDS HAVE BEGUN SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT. SEAS AT BUOY 4409 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT HWVR.
WILL MONITOR THE MARINE OBS...WHAT WE HAVE...AND PERHAPS EXTEND
THE SCA A COUPLE OF HOURS IF NEED BE. WIND AND WAVE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TODAY.
OTRW...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD CONT TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
DIFFUSE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTS EWD TO THE COAST BY EARLY
MONDAY MORN.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY IN AN INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET AT THAT TIME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
423 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY WILL RELAX THIS
WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INITIAL
SALVO...IN AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE...OCCURS ON MONDAY
AS SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE EXPANDING INTO FAIRLY
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EASING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...LK EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT FOR NE FLOW AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TIED INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...EVEN AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP ARE NEAR -10C AT
12Z ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS HIGHER H9 MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT EVEN THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER MONDAY AFTN.
ONCE THE DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS BRING H3-H2 JET ENERGY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW...IMPACTING EVENTUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS
ARE QUICKER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH. NO REAL SURPRISE THERE. WPC PREFERS
THE SLOWER IDEA...WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS WHAT VERIFIES WHEN
CUTOFF TYPE LOWS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...ON TUESDAY
WILL DISMISS THE FARTHER EAST H5 TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL PLAINS
TROUGHING/WETTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS AND GO WITH ECMWF IDEA.
00Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM VERY WET 26/18Z SOLUTION...LOOKING MORE LIKE
ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN ECMWF IDEA HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER 1000-850/850-700MB
THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC...AS FORCING FM
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM AND DIVERGENCE FM UPPER JET STREAK
INTERACT WITH H85 FRONT/HIGHER H85-H7 RH BANKED UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
IF THE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ATTN BY MIDWEEK SQUARELY ON UPPER TROUGH OVER NATIONS MID SECTION
AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES MOVE EAST. RESULT HAS DIRECT BEARING ON HOW
SOON SFC TROUGHING MOVES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ECMWF SLOWEST WHILE THE GEM-NH IS IN BETWEEN. 12Z UKMET
LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY TAKES
ON THE LOOK OF QUICKER GFS. SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS OVER 200 PCT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY SLOT MAY BE AN ISSUE SOMETIME IN
THERE AS WELL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY RESULT
IN TSRA CHANCES TOO. LOCATION OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP AREAS/TSRA
UNCERTAIN AS IS TIMING. PRETTY CLEAR THAT UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP ONCE
FORECAST IS PAST TUESDAY...SO FOR MOST PART USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE DETAILS. TRIED TO INCREASE WINDS SOME THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BOTH STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND
FIELDS AND LOWER PRESSURES MAY RESULT IN ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY.
THANKFLLY PTYPE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR CUT. POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ONLY RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TOWARD
+10C AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A
WHILE TAKES A BREAK AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE OVER 1350M.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TO RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY UNCLEAR
ON THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING THAT WILL BE AROUND BY THAT
TIME THOUGH. CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL BRING BACK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT
ALL SITES AS WINDS AGAIN GO BACK TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW IN SRN QUEBEC. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWED THE FIRST PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTN AND HAS PROVIDED A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SW
QUEBEC. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS RELAXING...AND NOW THAT THE SFC PRES RISE
MAX HAS SLIPPED JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. OBS
OVER THE LAST HR OR TWO SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO DROP
ONGOING WIND ADVYS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
SHORTWAVES THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICKLY DIVING SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN AFTN. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL REACH UPPER MI TONIGHT...
RESULTING IN STEADILY BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL SHIFT ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -7/-8C. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WAA
WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE W AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W IS THE NOTABLY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W TONIGHT. WHAT PCPN
THERE IS MAY END UP MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
DEVELOPS DUE TO LAND BREEZE ENHANCED BACKING OF LARGER SCALE WINDS.
TO THE E...INVERSION IS UP AROUND 7KFT. HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE MOSTLY ABOVE THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...BACKING WINDS AND -SHRA/SN/GRAUPEL MIX AT LEAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WILL ALL WORK TO KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. MAY SEE LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
ON SUN...SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROBABLY MOVING THRU THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI
MID TO LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS BACKING TO THE WSW WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY AFTN. OTHERWISE...IF THERE IS ANY MORNING SUNSHINE...IT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS. MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS OVERTOP ADEQUATE OVERWATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PCPN WILL
DEVELOP OR BE ENHANCED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD S FROM
THE KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING TO MUCH OF THE N HALF OF UPPER MI BY 00Z
MON. WITH WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS INCREASING TO GENERALLY ABOVE
1500FT...PTYPE WILL BECOME MOSTLY RAIN...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE ERN CWA AT 00Z MON AS A 1040MB SFC
HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN CANADA CONTINUES A QUICK TRANSIT TOWARD THE
CWA. AS THE COLDER AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN SUN NIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP...LEADING TO INCREASE N-NNE WINDS
POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL
DECREASE FROM AROUND -5C TO -11C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MON. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE N-NNE WINDS WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW TO CORRESPONDING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR LES...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE OVER
THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...HELPING TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS
OF THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS IN GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF
ALMOST COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON MON AS THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OF THE SFC HIGH DOMINATE.
THE SFC HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO 1033MB AS IT MOVES TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE...MOVING TO THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED WHILE LEAVING
A 1026MB RIDGE OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME QPF OVER OR S OF
THE SRN CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO OR S OF
THE CWA AND WE START WARM ADVECTING. IN FACT...BY 12Z WED...850MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR 0C. THESE TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON TUE AND IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON WED AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 7C.
ALL THIS WARM AIR IS BEING DRAW UP INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW LEEWARD
OF THE CO ROCKIES ON TUE. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL MODELS AGREE DECENTLY ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EITHER
FROM LATE THU/THU NIGHT (12Z/25 GFS SOLUTION) OR ON FRI (00Z/25
ECMWF SOLUTION)...BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH IT AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AGAIN...EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS AND ESPECIALLY WINDS...SO THOSE ARE
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONE ASPECT IS MORE CERTAIN...AND
SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TYPE OF EVENT. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 10C AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND DO NOT FALL BELOW 0C UNTIL THE SFC LOW IS IN QUEBEC. COULD
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRI NIGHT/SAT AS MODELS
BRING COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELED 850MB TEMPS DO NOT GET THAT COLD (AROUND
-6C AT THE COLDEST) SO WOULD NEED ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF ENERGY TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR.
THIS MAY HAPPEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT ON SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT.
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL BRING BACK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS AT
ALL SITES AS WINDS AGAIN GO BACK TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...LINGERING GALES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE...CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND INCREASED OVERWATER
INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35KT GALES SUN
EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS...
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN PREVAIL MON-WED AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1140 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
CURRENTLY...AT 9PM...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS DIGGING SSE-WARD TOWARDS
THE ARKLATEX BORDER ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOCATED
OVER THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO AREA. THESE FEATURES ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT
REGION. SOME SINKING MOTION LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS
SYSTEM IS EFFECTIVELY INHIBITING ANY SHOWERS FROM REACHING OUR
AREA. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS FROM NOW UNTIL 12Z. HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AROUND THE TENNESSEE
RIVER AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS IN WEST TENNESSEE AS DENSE CLOUD
COVER WILL PREVENT ANY RAPID COOLING THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES...AS OF 9PM...ARE RUNNING 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY DUE TO THE WAA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
UPDATED ZONES WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY. NO FURTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.
AC3
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SAINT LOUIS
AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND INTO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
TEXARKANA...PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE CHALLENGE IN THIS
FORECAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE MID SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INCLUDING THE 3KM HRRR INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE.
NONETHELESS...THINK BEST CHANCES RAIN /ISOLATED-SCATTERED
COVERAGE/ WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE AROUND FL050 WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT... AHEAD OF A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL
DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST AR. MOIST LOW LEVELS WERE EVIDENT ON
THE 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL AR...WITH AN LIFR CIG
REPORTED AT LIT. SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF MEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
441 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THIS TREND WL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...WL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST THROUGH 14Z. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 88 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE
OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
&&
.MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 88 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB/80...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1255 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL EXPERIENCE FEW-SCT CIGS
OVERNIGHT AROUND 3K FEET. THEN GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 10K FEET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SCT TO BKN DECK BEGINNING TO THIN OUT THIS EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. INLAND CIGS AROUND 6000...WITH
HIGHER CIGS AROUND 10000 AT KBRO. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASE TO
NEAR CALM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURN TO
10 TO 12 KNOTS BEFORE NOON TOMORROW...WHILE SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN
CIGS AT 4000 TO 5000 REDEVELOP BY NOON AND SPREAD INLAND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL HELP PUSH THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING FROM
THE SOUTH INCREASING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW THE
SLOW INCREASE OF PWATS REACHING 1.32 INCHES THIS MORNING. AS THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR RAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND WITH THE E/SE FLOW...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAIN VERY
LOW WITH A SILENT 10 ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT REMAIN BRIEF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WARMER TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT
REACHING THE 70S ALONG THE RIVER AND THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN
RANCHLAND.
INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER THAN
TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT THE 1000-500 MB RH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 40 PERCENT LEVEL BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER VALLEY NEARLY REACHING
THE 90 DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MID 60S.
LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL AND FORECAST
THINKING FOR THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE A REHASH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WITH STILL A WIDE SPREAD
BETWEEN TIMING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
MAIN ELEMENTS OF CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING SE-S WIND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WINDS TUES/WED. ALSO...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
EVENTUALLY VEERS A BIT WEST OF SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. AS MENTIONED LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS.
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTH TEXAS TO LIE ON THE WESTERN END OF WARM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
CAMP WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO SINK MORE SOUTH
THEN KICK EAST INITIALLY. THE CLOSE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THURSDAY LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH
OF TEXAS. THE FLOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL TO EVEN SOUTHWEST. THIS IS NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR FRONT PASSAGES. THE LATEST GFS MOS TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF ONLY SHOW A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FRONT WHICH IS NOT EVEN
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NOVEMBER. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND SOME
WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. GFS IS TRENDING A BIT STRONG
NEARING 30 MPH BETWEEN HWY 69E/69C BUT WILL TREND IN THE BREEZY
/15-25MPH/ RANGE AND HOLD OFF ON THE WINDY /20-30/UNTIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. 925-850MB WINDS JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL DECENT IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES SAME THINKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT ANOMALIES TO REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
POST TROUGH/FRONT AS MENTIONED ONLY A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IS
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. ONE ELEMENT OF NOTE IS THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. PWATS ARE ADVERTISED TO JUMP ABOVE THE 1.5 THRESHOLD
TUESDAY AND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE IN
FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT TOO MUCH WIND AND NOT THE BEST DIRECTION
FOR AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. QUESTION ARISES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHER END
CHANCE POPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOWER END WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.
MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. DUE TO THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SURF WATERS MOVES CLOSE TO THE DUNES. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
LOWERING INTO SUNDAY. SINCE TIDES HAVE BEEN 1FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED...WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WATERS TO PUSH UP
TO THE DUNE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING BUT
WILL FORCE FOR SOME BEACH ACCESS TO BE CLOSE. THERE IS A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK DUE TO THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
MONDAY BECOMING STRONG TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND POSSIBLY FOR AN EXTENDED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SCA/S WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAYTIME AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONGER SCA
CRITERIA WINDS COULD LINGER OVER THE LAGUNA WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1116 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WORKING ITS WAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. CLL WILL BE
IMPACTED FIRST WILL FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CELL TIMED TO COME NEAR THE
AIRFIELD AROUND 06Z. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FOLLOW WITH
MCS NOW DROPPING THROUGH NE TEXAS. TIMING ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
MADE...GENERALLY MOVING UP THE TIMING BY AN HOUR OR TWO AT EACH
TAF SITE...WITH A 2 OR 3 HOUR DURATION OF THUNDER. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AN MCS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE SOUTH SLOWLY. DISCRETE CELLS OUT IN FRONT OF
THE MCS HAVE BEEN PUSHING EASTWARDS TONIGHT AND WEAKENING AS THEY
APPROACH THE CWA. STILL COULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THESE CELLS LATER
TONIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR AND
TEXAS TECH WRF HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE MCS MAKING IT INTO OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES BY 6Z OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK THE
REMNANTS OF THE MCS WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST. MADE TWEAKS TO
THE POP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. CLOUD COVER ALSO APPEARS THAT
IT WILL HANG AROUND TOMORROW. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURE GRIDS A TAD
FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. 23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
EAST WEST LINE OF STORMS NOW OVER NORTHERN TEXAS IS PROGGED BY
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS TO SAG SOUTH TONIGHT...CROSSING THE TAF
SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. CLUSTER
OF STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THAT LINE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH THE LINE COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. AS FAR AS TIMING EXPECTING IT TO REACH CLL AND UTS
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z...CXO CLOSER TO 10Z...IAH AROUND 12Z...AND HOU
AND SGR 13-14Z. SHOULD SEE A 3 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN WITH THIS
BAND. NOT SURE ABOUT THE IMPACTS FOR LBX AND GLS...AS LINE WILL BE
PRETTY FAR REMOVED FROM THE UPPER VORT THAT IS HELPING TO TRIGGER
THIS LINE...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS UNDER
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LINE HOLDS TOGETHER. AFTER LINE PASSES
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VARIABLE WINDS...THEN SW TO S WINDS
SHOULD BECOME REESTABLISHED. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND THE TIME OF PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. 46
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEEING ISO/WIDELY SCT DEVELOPMENT OVER SC TX THIS AFTN WITH DEEP-
ENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DAYTIME HEATING...ALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT
WAVE PROGGED FOR TONIGHT. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING/
MOVEMENT OF THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY. POPS SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE
W/NW BY SUN AFTN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS WILL BRIEF AS ONSHORE
WINDS QUICKLY RECOVER. THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL
MAKE FOR WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR SE TX DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK...THROUGH THURS. WHILE THE BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE CON-
FINED TO JUST AHEAD OF/WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
THURS (AFTN OR NIGHT DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE)...STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT ISO/WIDELY SCT WAA TYPE SHRA FOR THE COASTAL/NEAR COAST-
AL LOCATIONS BY LATE TUES NIGHT/EARLY WEDS MORNING. FAVOURING THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF IN THE EXTENDED FOR THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT
COLD FRONT (AS IT HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST OF LATE). WILL BE KEEP-
ING A CLOSE EYE ON LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THEY CONTINUE WITH TRENDS
OF LESS LIFT/WEAKER CAA WITH/BEHIND THIS FROPA. 41
MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH MODERATE
SEAS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THE COMING WEEK KEEPING SEAS AT LOW/MODERATE LEVELS. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE
PLAINS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT
IN OFFSHORE AREAS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 7-8FT AND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME. A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH OFF THE
COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
39
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 64 76 63 84 65 / 60 40 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 65 77 64 84 65 / 50 60 20 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 70 78 69 82 71 / 20 50 20 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
916 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST PER LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS WHERE
PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED EAST
TOWARDS THE PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL END AROUND 14Z PER LATEST HRRR RUN. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY.
PREV DISC...
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY BRINGING AN END TO
SHOWERS CURRENTLY PARKED OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND THEN VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTH EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
UPSLOPE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. IN THE NORTH HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
A DRY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S IN THE NORTH AND
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH.
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND
NOON. FARTHER SOUTH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. A FEW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT AREAS DOWNWIND TO SEE CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR MOVES IN
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MONDAY NGT AND
TUESDAY THEN SETTLES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NGT AND WEDNESDAY. THE
HIGH SHIFTS TO THE E WEDNESDAY NGT AS DRY FAIR WX PERSISTS. ON
THURSDAY AN INTENSE UPR LVL SYSTEM BRINGS LOW PRES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WITH A SURGE OF VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR SPREADING TOWARD THE
NE ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SFC AND SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WX AND PRCP...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
THURSDAY AND MAYBE CONT INTO SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE MODELS
WHICH SHOW VARIABILITY ON TIMING WHEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
ALLOWING THE STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST..
USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5...THEN USED A SUPER BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THRU
8.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...VFR MONDAY NGT THRU
WEDNESDAY NGT. PRCP AND INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA`S IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WINDS AND SEAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...NW FLOW BEHIND COLD
FRONT COULD GUST TO SCA LEVELS AND SEAS COULD STILL BE AROUND SCA
LEVELS MONDAY NGT. WINDS AND SEAS THEN BELOW SCA LEVELS UNTIL SW
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LARGE WX SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE W ON
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY WILL RELAX THIS
WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INITIAL
SALVO...IN AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE...OCCURS ON MONDAY
AS SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE EXPANDING INTO FAIRLY
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EASING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...LK EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT FOR NE FLOW AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TIED INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...EVEN AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP ARE NEAR -10C AT
12Z ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS HIGHER H9 MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT EVEN THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER MONDAY AFTN.
ONCE THE DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS BRING H3-H2 JET ENERGY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW...IMPACTING EVENTUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS
ARE QUICKER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH. NO REAL SURPRISE THERE. WPC PREFERS
THE SLOWER IDEA...WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS WHAT VERIFIES WHEN
CUTOFF TYPE LOWS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...ON TUESDAY
WILL DISMISS THE FARTHER EAST H5 TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL PLAINS
TROUGHING/WETTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS AND GO WITH ECMWF IDEA.
00Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM VERY WET 26/18Z SOLUTION...LOOKING MORE LIKE
ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN ECMWF IDEA HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER 1000-850/850-700MB
THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC...AS FORCING FM
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM AND DIVERGENCE FM UPPER JET STREAK
INTERACT WITH H85 FRONT/HIGHER H85-H7 RH BANKED UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
IF THE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ATTN BY MIDWEEK SQUARELY ON UPPER TROUGH OVER NATIONS MID SECTION
AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES MOVE EAST. RESULT HAS DIRECT BEARING ON HOW
SOON SFC TROUGHING MOVES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ECMWF SLOWEST WHILE THE GEM-NH IS IN BETWEEN. 12Z UKMET
LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY TAKES
ON THE LOOK OF QUICKER GFS. SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS OVER 200 PCT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY SLOT MAY BE AN ISSUE SOMETIME IN
THERE AS WELL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY RESULT
IN TSRA CHANCES TOO. LOCATION OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP AREAS/TSRA
UNCERTAIN AS IS TIMING. PRETTY CLEAR THAT UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP ONCE
FORECAST IS PAST TUESDAY...SO FOR MOST PART USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE DETAILS. TRIED TO INCREASE WINDS SOME THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BOTH STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND
FIELDS AND LOWER PRESSURES MAY RESULT IN ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY.
THANKFLLY PTYPE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR CUT. POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ONLY RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TOWARD
+10C AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A
WHILE TAKES A BREAK AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE OVER 1350M.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TO RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY UNCLEAR
ON THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING THAT WILL BE AROUND BY THAT
TIME THOUGH. CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES MOST OF TODAY
WITH DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT. ONCE THE FNT
PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVNG...MVFR CONDITIONS WL DVLP WITH
UPSLOPE AND MOISTER NNW FLOW. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND
QUICKLY SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FROPA...THESE WINDS WL
BE QUITE GUSTY. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LK EFFECT -SHSN ARE
MOST LIKELY AT SAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST.
THE VSBY AT SAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SHSN. WINDS WL TEND TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
THE PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH CLOSER APRCH OF HI CENTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
749 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS STILL HINTING AT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW PA LATER THIS AM SO WILL LEAVE A PRECIP MENTION
IN.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE DAY WITH BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY
SCATTERED SKIES. TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START THIS MORNING
BUT STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A SHOT AT GETTING TO 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE TODAY
EAST OF KCLE SO A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NW PA AND WOULD
BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN. AS IT STANDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SMALL AREA
OF CHANCE POPS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL ENJOY A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS...
INCLUDING THE SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE AND PERHAPS NW PA. WILL GO WITH A SMALL PRECIP MENTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN NW PA BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WON`T GET AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE PLAINS LOW.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS WEDNESDAY
TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN TUESDAY EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERN
STREAM JET ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM
FOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS
IS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING MANY
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY THURSDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE AMPLE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ALSO RAISED LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS
THE DRY-SLOT WRAPS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BKN-OVC CLOUD DECK NEAR 6000 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
TAF SITES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 13Z. VISIBILITIES MAY BRIEFLY
DROP BELOW VFR AT YNG/CAK WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE
BUT WILL NOT LAST LONG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 7-10 KNOTS TODAY
THEN DECREASE AGAIN BY 00Z. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA. NON-
VFR ON WEDNESDAY THEN AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE WEST OF VERMILION HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE WAVES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND TO DROP OFF SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME ON THE ADVISORY
TO 10 AM. WE WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE INTO MONDAY MORNING SO EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF WILLOWICK.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
626 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE SKY FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. LATEST HRRR MODEL IS STILL HINTING AT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER NW PA LATER THIS AM SO WILL LEAVE A PRECIP MENTION
IN.
ORIGINAL...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY. LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE DAY WITH BROKEN TO OCCASIONALLY
SCATTERED SKIES. TEMPS WILL GET OFF TO A COOL START THIS MORNING
BUT STILL THINK MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A SHOT AT GETTING TO 50
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OFF THE LAKE TODAY
EAST OF KCLE SO A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NW PA AND WOULD
BE SURPRISED TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS EVEN IF IT
DOES RAIN. AS IT STANDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A SMALL AREA
OF CHANCE POPS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA WILL ENJOY A FEW PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE SYSTEM
OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS...
INCLUDING THE SREF CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
LAKE ERIE AND PERHAPS NW PA. WILL GO WITH A SMALL PRECIP MENTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN NW PA BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. ANOTHER HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WON`T GET AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD MAKE THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE PLAINS LOW.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS WEDNESDAY
TO BE A TAD WARMER THAN TUESDAY EVEN WITH MORE CLOUDS. HAVE USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE MOST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START THE PERIOD OVER THE PLAINS AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERN
STREAM JET ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC WILL PROVIDE THE MECHANISM
FOR STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES. THE 00Z GFS
IS FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING MANY
OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BY THURSDAY. WILL ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS AS WE RESIDE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE AMPLE CLOUD COVER ON
THURSDAY...STRONG WARM ADVECTION WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ALSO RAISED LOWS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PARTIAL CLEARING AS
THE DRY-SLOT WRAPS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI. THE FLOW OFF THE
LAKE WILL MAINTAIN WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED TO THE EAST WITH SKIES
STARTING OFF AS MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AT
ERI/YNG WHERE VFR CLOUDS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. A
CLOUD DECK NEAR 6000 FEET IS ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH A BKN STRATOCU
DECK RETURNING TO MOST AREAS WITH DIURNAL HEATING ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA. NON-
VFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE WEST OF VERMILION HAVE DROPPED BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE WAVES OFFSHORE OF
CLEVELAND TO DROP OFF SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE END TIME ON THE ADVISORY
TO 10 AM. WE WILL MAINTAIN A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE INTO MONDAY MORNING SO EXTENDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF WILLOWICK.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ145-
146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED LAST SENTENCE
NWS NASHVILLE TN
859 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION UPDATE...
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOSEST SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BACK ACROSS AR AND INTO NRN MS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC FORCING IS INDICATED.
FOR THE FCST...LITTLE CHANGE IF ANY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WAS
THINKING ABOUT PERHAPS LOWERING MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
BUT...18Z SFC TEMP PROGS CLEARLY SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST HIGHS.
WILL THEREFORE MAKE NO CHANGES FOR NOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AND SPRINKLES NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER IT. HRRR IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION...EXPECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CIGS NR 5K FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE PATCHES OF
MVFR IN BR, WHERE CLOUDS BREAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
17Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVING INTO THE HOUSTON AREA WL SKIRT THE VCT AREA BY 14Z. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WL BE POSSIBLE AT VCT.
ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS QUICKLY NEWD. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS WL ONCE BEGIN DEVELOPING AS A MOIST FLOW PERSISTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THIS TREND WL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...WL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST THROUGH 14Z. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 20 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 88 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BEE...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE
OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
MB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE SWINGING SE
THRU NRN ONTARIO. WAA PATTERN AHEAD OF WAVE HAS PRODUCED SOME PCPN
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. ALTHOUGH RADAR RETURNS ALSO BLOSSOMED ACROSS
MUCH OF UPPER MI...DRY AIR AT THE LOW-LEVELS HAS KEPT MOST OF THE
PCPN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AT THE SFC...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
JUST NOW ENTERING NW LAKE SUPERIOR. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC
OBS INDICATE SOME PCPN OCCURRING IN THE VCNTY OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING.
HEALTHY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB/3HR WITH FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND WITH GRADIENT WIND WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NRLY WINDS
BEHIND FRONT...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AS
OVERWATER INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS (850MB TEMPS DROP FROM ROUGHLY
-4/-5C AT 00Z TO -9/-11C BY 06Z). WINDS WILL LIKELY GUSTS TO AROUND
40MPH AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A PERIOD OF LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN ALONG COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP
LAYER FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE ACT ON OVERWATER INSTABILITY
(LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 13C). AFTER A PERIOD OF SHRASN IN VCNTY
OF COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO N TO NE FLOW LES AS
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T INCREASES TO 17C OR BETTER. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE STRONG NEGATIVES WORKING AGAINST MUCH MORE THAN LIGHT LES.
FIRST...LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC AS SFC HIGH
PRES RIDGE QUICKLY NOSES SE INTO THE UPPER LAKES...AND SECOND...
INVERSION CRASHES TO 4KFT WITH DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH TEMP ZONE
REMAINING ABOVE THE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER. LIKELY POPS STILL LOOK ON
TRACK FOR THE N TO NE FLOW FAVORED LOCATIONS...BUT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL (PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO...INCLUDING
EVENING PCPN ALONG FRONT...WHERE STRONGEST UPSLOPING OCCURS SUCH AS
THE HURON MTNS). LATE IN THE NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING...THERE ARE
SOME HINTS THAT MOISTENING FROM LAKE NIPIGON MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF
MORE PERSISTENT LES INTO FAR WRN UPPER MI AROUND KIWD/PORCUPINE
MTNS.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
DURING MON. ALTHOUGH INVERSION BASE TEMP AROUND -10C PROVIDES A
LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 17C OR SO...LES WILL STRUGGLE MON DUE TO
SHARP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A LOW INVERSION AT 3-4KFT. COMBINED WITH
EARLY SEASON NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISRUPTING LAKE
EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL STICK WITH THE IDEA OF LES ENDING EARLY IN
THE AFTN. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR SOME FLURRIES TO LINGER
ALONG THE TRAJECTORY DOWN WIND FROM LAKE NIPIGON. ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL
BE ANTICYCLONIC...MOISTURE PICKED UP OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROBABLY
LEAD TO QUITE A BIT OF STRATOCU THRU THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
AT 00Z TUE...A 1035MB SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA
AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(AT LEAST INLAND)...MON NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS INLAND
AND INTO THE 20S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED AS AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING LEEWARD OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT TO JUST S OF THE CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
CWA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER
THE SRN CWA. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...BUT ANY
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW GIVEN ONLY A SHALLOW
WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. HIGHS ON TUE LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.
THEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SETUP...THEY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
MORE SPECIFIC AND IMPORTANT DETAILS WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA...THIS LEADS TO A DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. MODEL VARIABILITY (BOTH
BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH INTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY) MAY SEEM
SMALL WITH RELATION TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW IT WILL MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN WIND/WAVE
FORECASTS AND WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS/TIMING. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FUTURE RUNS AS IS
COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MOST
(IF NOT ALL) PRECIP WILL BE RAIN GIVEN 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO UP
TO 10C AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...OR A BIT COLDER IF THE SYSTEM STAY S OF
THE CWA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE
RAIN...AND AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWA.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THAT PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW WITH TIME. 850MB
TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DECEASE FROM -2C AT 00Z SAT TO AROUND
-7C BY 00Z SUN. LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC TO
NEUTRAL IN DIRECTIONAL CHANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUN AS MODELS DIFFER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVERALL IN
EXTENDED FORECAST...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR
WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS IN DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH UPSLOPE/MOISTER NORTHERLY FLOW AIDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG PRES RISES
BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE MORE LIKELY
AT KSAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE SHARPEST. THE VIS AT
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHSN. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KIWD EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD LAKE
SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB/3HR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR RESULTING IN STRONG
OVERWATER INSTABILITY...EXPECT A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35-40KT GALES
THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS PRES RISE MAX QUICKLY SHIFTS
S OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS...MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL LATER MON THRU EARLY WED AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA. LATE WED THRU FRI THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
WINDS OF AT LEAST 15-25KT...AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
333 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
AT 00Z TUE...A 1035MB SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA
AND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHILE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY TUE
MORNING. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -8C AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
(AT LEAST INLAND)...MON NIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS INLAND
AND INTO THE 20S CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE TO
THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED AS AN UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING LEEWARD OF THE CO
ROCKIES. THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT TO JUST S OF THE CWA BY TUE AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
CWA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS MAY BRING SOME PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF
THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER
THE SRN CWA. STILL UNCERTAIN ON IF/WHERE PRECIP WILL FALL...BUT ANY
PRECIP OVER THE CWA SHOULD FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW GIVEN ONLY A SHALLOW
WARM LAYER NEAR THE SFC. HIGHS ON TUE LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S TO
AROUND 40.
THEN THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE WRN CONUS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON GENERAL SETUP...THEY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
MORE SPECIFIC AND IMPORTANT DETAILS WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE
OVERALL IDEA IS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES TOWARD THE CWA...THIS LEADS TO A DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. MODEL VARIABILITY (BOTH
BETWEEN MODELS AND WITH INTER MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY) MAY SEEM
SMALL WITH RELATION TO THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM...BUT WITH
A FAIRLY COMPACT LOW IT WILL MAKE HUGE DIFFERENCES IN WIND/WAVE
FORECASTS AND WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS/TIMING. CONFIDENCE IN THESE
ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST ARE VERY LOW FOR THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
SINCE MODELS WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FUTURE RUNS AS IS
COMMON WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM. WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MOST
(IF NOT ALL) PRECIP WILL BE RAIN GIVEN 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO UP
TO 10C AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...OR A BIT COLDER IF THE SYSTEM STAY S OF
THE CWA BUT STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE
RAIN...AND AIR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CWA.
FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF THAT PRECIP BEING ALL SNOW WITH TIME. 850MB
TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DECEASE FROM -2C AT 00Z SAT TO AROUND
-7C BY 00Z SUN. LOW LEVEL NW WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC TO
NEUTRAL IN DIRECTIONAL CHANGE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. CONDITIONS ARE
MORE UNCERTAIN FOR SUN AS MODELS DIFFER MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY BE
LATER IN THE DAY...BUT LES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVERALL IN
EXTENDED FORECAST...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR
WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS IN DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH UPSLOPE/MOISTER NORTHERLY FLOW AIDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG PRES RISES
BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE MORE LIKELY
AT KSAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE SHARPEST. THE VIS AT
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHSN. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KIWD EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
140 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR TROF CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN THE ROCKIES. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRTWV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HI WINDS ON SAT...A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SFC/UPR RDG UNDER 12HR H3 HGT RISES UP TO 200M OBSVD BTWN 12Z-24Z AT
INL IS MOVING INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 00Z INL RAOB ALSO SHOWS RATHER
DRY NEAR SFC LYR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN JUST ABV H85. SO EVEN THOUGH
H85 THERMAL TROF WITH TEMPS DOWN ARND -7C IS MOVING THRU THE UPR
LKS...LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN IN LLVL NW FLOW HAVE BECOME ISOLD
AND RESTRICTED TO AREAS E OF MQT. NEXT SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALF ARND HUDSON BAY TROF IS NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG. A SHARP
120KT/80KT H3/H5 JET MAX IS SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE...WITH 12HR H3
HGT FALLS UP TO 110M REPORTED AT THE PAS MANITOBA. ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FNT IS DROPPING SWD THRU MANITOBA...BUT DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS
SHOWN ON THE 00Z BISMARCK RAOB AND EVEN THE LLVLS ON THE PAS SDNG
ARE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FNT DESPITE
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID/HI CLD COVER. THERE IS MORE SN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE BNDRY IN MANITOBA.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE TIMING/IMPACT OF SHRTWV
NOW NEAR LK WINNIPEG...ESPECIALLY ON POPS AND WINDS.
TODAY...ANY LINGERING LES E OF MQT WL DIMINISH THIS MRNG AS THE SFC
RDG AXIS PRESSES TO THE E AND LLVL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE
APRCHG SHRTWV/COLD FNT FM THE NW. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS TO THE W AND SW AS WELL AS LACK OF PCPN AHEAD OF
THE FNT/SHRTWV ATTM...PREFER THE DRIER LOOK OF THE 00Z NAM IN
REGARDS TO PCPN UNTIL THE COLD FNT REACHES THE WRN CWA LATER THIS
AFTN. THE NAM HINTS MOST OF THE -SHRA AHEAD OF THE FNT WL REMAIN OUT
OVER LK SUP CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV THRU ONTARIO. OTRW...
SKIES WL BE MOCLDY...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER THE
SCENTRAL. DESPITE THE CLD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
PER UPSTREAM OBS MAX TEMPS ON SAT.
TNGT...AS THE SHRTWV MOVES ESEWD ACRS ONTARIO AND INTO WRN QUEBEC BY
12Z MON...ATTENDANT SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
CWA THIS EVNG AND TO THE SE BY 03Z IN ADVANCE OF STRONG H925 N WINDS
UP TO 35 KTS. WITH UPSLOPE N FLOW...EXPECT SOME -SHRASN TO IMPACT
MAINLY THE NRN TIER ZNS AS MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS DEEP LYR QVECTOR
DVGC/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FROPA. N WIND GUSTS
COULD REACH 40 MPH NEAR THE EXPOSED LK SUP SHORE...ENHANCED BY
MIXING IN THE VIGOROUS CAD REGIME AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF THE
ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AHEAD OF TRAILING AXIS OF PRES RISES WITH
THE GRADIENT FLOW. THE WINDOW OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED AND OCCUR MAINLY BEFORE 06Z...AFTER WHICH THE GRADIENT IS
FCST TO WEAKEN FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF AXIS OF PRES RISES. THIS SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C BY 06Z OVER LK
SUP...WL ALSO BRING THE PROSPECT OF LES IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LK
IN LLVL N VEERING NE FLOW. BUT FCST SDNGS SHOW INVRN BASE CRASHING
TOWARD 3-4K FT AFT 06Z. THIS IN CONCERT WITH DENDRITIC SN GROWTH ZN
REMAINING ABV THE SHALLOW MOIST LYR AND INCRSG ACYC LOOK TO LLVL
FLOW WL LIMIT LES ACCUMS. BUT DID MAINTAIN GOING LIKELY POPS THRU
12Z MON OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NCENTRAL...WHERE THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT WL BE SHARPEST. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS/DRYING...EXPECT SOME CLRG OVER THE SCENTRAL FOLLOWING A DRY
FROPA WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES RECENTLY WILL RELAX THIS
WEEK AS SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INITIAL
SALVO...IN AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PATTERN CHANGE...OCCURS ON MONDAY
AS SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHILE EXPANDING INTO FAIRLY
LARGE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH. CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE EASING
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FM WESTERN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN...LK EFFECT THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT FOR NE FLOW AREAS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TIED INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE...EVEN AS TEMPS AT INVERSION TOP ARE NEAR -10C AT
12Z ON MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATOCU MAY LINGER FOR
UPSLOPE AREAS AS HIGHER H9 MOISTURE PERSISTS...BUT EVEN THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD FADE AWAY LATER MONDAY AFTN.
ONCE THE DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS ON MONDAY IT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO TUESDAY THOUGH THIS IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR.
PRIMARY ISSUE IS HOW QUICKLY THE MODELS BRING H3-H2 JET ENERGY
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW...IMPACTING EVENTUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. RECENT RUNS OF GFS
ARE QUICKER THAN ECMWF/GEM-NH. NO REAL SURPRISE THERE. WPC PREFERS
THE SLOWER IDEA...WHICH MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IS WHAT VERIFIES WHEN
CUTOFF TYPE LOWS EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. ACCORDINGLY...ON TUESDAY
WILL DISMISS THE FARTHER EAST H5 TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL PLAINS
TROUGHING/WETTER SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS AND GO WITH ECMWF IDEA.
00Z GFS TRENDED AWAY FM VERY WET 26/18Z SOLUTION...LOOKING MORE LIKE
ECMWF. HOWEVER...EVEN ECMWF IDEA HOLDS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED PRECIP...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW PER 1000-850/850-700MB
THICKNESSES AND EXPECTED SHALLOW WARM LAYER NEAR SFC...AS FORCING FM
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM AND DIVERGENCE FM UPPER JET STREAK
INTERACT WITH H85 FRONT/HIGHER H85-H7 RH BANKED UP JUST SOUTH OF CWA.
IF THE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT.
ATTN BY MIDWEEK SQUARELY ON UPPER TROUGH OVER NATIONS MID SECTION
AND HOW QUICKLY IT DOES MOVE EAST. RESULT HAS DIRECT BEARING ON HOW
SOON SFC TROUGHING MOVES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ECMWF SLOWEST WHILE THE GEM-NH IS IN BETWEEN. 12Z UKMET
LOOKS SIMILAR TO ECMWF/GEM-NH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY BUT BY THURSDAY TAKES
ON THE LOOK OF QUICKER GFS. SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AS PWATS INCREASE OVER 1 INCH WHICH IS OVER 200 PCT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY SLOT MAY BE AN ISSUE SOMETIME IN
THERE AS WELL. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM MAY RESULT
IN TSRA CHANCES TOO. LOCATION OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP AREAS/TSRA
UNCERTAIN AS IS TIMING. PRETTY CLEAR THAT UNCERTAINTY RAMPS UP ONCE
FORECAST IS PAST TUESDAY...SO FOR MOST PART USED MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
THE DETAILS. TRIED TO INCREASE WINDS SOME THOUGH AS THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BOTH STRONGER WINDS AHEAD OF IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND
FIELDS AND LOWER PRESSURES MAY RESULT IN ADVY LEVEL GUSTS IN PARTS OF
THE CWA LATER WEDNESDAY THOUGH THURSDAY.
THANKFLLY PTYPE WITH THE SYSTEM IS CLEAR CUT. POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES ONLY RAIN
LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AS H85 TEMPS SURGE TOWARD
+10C AND THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR A
WHILE TAKES A BREAK AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES RISE OVER 1350M.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP TO RETURN NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
IN WAKE OF THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. VERY UNCLEAR
ON THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING THAT WILL BE AROUND BY THAT
TIME THOUGH. CAN SORT OUT THOSE DETAILS LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW FOR THE
NEXT FEW HRS IN DRY SW FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH UPSLOPE/MOISTER NORTHERLY FLOW AIDED BY LAKE
SUPERIOR. WITH RAPID COOLING/DESTABILIZATION AND STRONG PRES RISES
BEHIND FRONT...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY INTO THE 25-35KT RANGE FOR
A TIME. THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT -SHSN ARE MORE LIKELY
AT KSAW...WHERE UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL BE SHARPEST. THE VIS AT
KSAW IS LIKELY TO FALL TO IFR AT TIMES UNDER SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHSN. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVIER SHSN AND
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING KIWD EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS MOVING CLOSER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN OCT 27 2013
EXPECT W-SW WINDS UP TO 20-25KTS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE N-NE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WITH CHILLY AIRMASS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS WILL CAUSE GALES UP TO 35-40 KTS. THE GALES WILL DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT WITH THE CLOSER APPROACH OF A TRAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WEAKER PRES GRADIENT. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAKER GRADIENT
ALLOWS FOR LIGHTER WINDS...MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KTS LATER MON INTO
WED. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE...LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
LIFT FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ265-266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ248>251.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
/1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ241>245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC/JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
CURRENT VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW A WELL DEFINED COLD
FRONT THAT HAS BEEN QUICKLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AT
300 PM THE FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM THUNDER BAY ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS NEWEST WISCONSIN. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG CAA HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CLOUDS. AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE BORDERLAND.
MAIN STORY OVERNIGHT WILL BE NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
COLD AIR MASS. THE NORTHEAST TO NORTH TRAJECTORIES WOULD FAVOR ANY
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO MARGINAL
DELTA-T VALUES AND SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF DRY AIR LATE TONIGHT...ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE MARGINAL. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
ISOLD ONE INCH AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN OF ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES...ALONG THE GOGEBIC
RANGE...WHERE CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE THE LONGEST.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER AND
TIMING OF CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT LOWS NEAR
LATEST GUIDANCE VALUES. HOWEVER...IF SKIES CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL QUITE LOW AS DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS ARE OBSERVED UPSTREAM.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES FOR LES LOW. THERE WILL BE AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...INITIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
TWIN PORTS...THEN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY
THOUGH...WITH 850-700MB RH FIELDS MOSTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT...SO WE
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
WEAK WAA/FGEN WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY...MAINLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WHICH
SHOULD START AS MAINLY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES...THEN AS TEMPS WARM
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT...AND
WE ONLY HAVE LOW POPS.
EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THAT WILL
IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...BUT DO SHOW SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...AND
HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GEM. WE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER NAM/GFS
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF PRECIP INITIALLY OVER NORTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM AIR MOVING IN THAT
WILL SWITCH IT TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY. THE GEM/ECMWF ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SLOWER LOW MOVEMENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN SOME COLDER AIR WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR
A MIX OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE. SOME HEAVIER
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE
WHICH WILL SEE NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER THIRTIES TO WARM INTO THE
FORTIES ON WED-THU-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESS. MVFR CEILINGS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS NOT
DONE A PARTICULARLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS. THE RAP WAS
DOING THE BEST JOB AT THIS TIME...AND WE USED IT FOR TIMING. WE
MAY SEE BASES RISE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO LOW VFR HIGH MVFR. WE
DID TRANSITION TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE. THERE ARE MORE MVFR CEILINGS WELL NORTH INTO
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 28 37 21 36 / 20 10 10 20
INL 14 31 14 34 / 10 0 0 0
BRD 23 37 23 36 / 10 0 0 40
HYR 27 38 22 38 / 30 20 0 40
ASX 32 37 21 39 / 40 30 10 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
BASED ON CURRENT CANADIAN RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM HAVE BROUGHT IN MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FLURRIES TO
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LATEST DLHWRF/HRRR/4KM WRF ALL SUGGEST VERY LIGHT ISOLD PRECIP
ACCOMPANIES THE LOW CLOUDS SEEN ON VIS SAT IMAGERY ADVANCING
INTO THE BORDERLAND.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A NICE CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THERE IS A POTENT SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF WINNIPEG
MANITOBA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. A WARM FRONT IS EXTENDING DOWN INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF SNOW IS AFFECTING SOUTHWEST ONTARIO THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS MOVING IN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BE
RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 40 ALONG THE
BORDERLAND...TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF PRECIPITATION NOW OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO IS GOING TO MAINLY STAY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE IT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN AROUND TO NORTH BY THIS
EVENING. WITH LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID
40S...EXPECT THAT WHILE WE STILL HAVE MOISTURE AROUND THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE GOING TO SET
UP BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND LINGER
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN EVEN AS PRECIPITATION
SHUTS OFF OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT TO DROP OFF AFTER CLOUD COVER MOVES SOUTH TO OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND HAVE MINS IN THE TEENS NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 20S
SOUTH. COLD...DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY WILL
EVENTUALLY SHUT OFF THE LAKE EFFECT MECHANISM...AND ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY GET INTO
THE 30S THOUGH...AFTER SUCH A COLD START TO THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND NW FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO GENERAL UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING...WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE LOOKING AT GENERALLY LIGHT
QPF...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY HAD A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
MAJOR SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
POSITION OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL
TO MODEL...ONE THING REMAINS THE SAME THOUGH. THAT IS THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. THE MAIN PUSH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION BY THU...LEAVING US WITH MID RANGE POPS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND PCPN. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WE ARE BACK TO
AN UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW SCENARIO...WITH SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME
30S AT TIMES IN THE NORTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND...WITH WINDS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED
OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTH...THEN
NORTHEAST AS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PROGRESS. MVFR CEILINGS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS NOT
DONE A PARTICULARLY GOOD JOB DEPICTING THESE CEILINGS. THE RAP WAS
DOING THE BEST JOB AT THIS TIME...AND WE USED IT FOR TIMING. WE
MAY SEE BASES RISE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO LOW VFR HIGH MVFR. WE
DID TRANSITION TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
AVERAGE. THERE ARE MORE MVFR CEILINGS WELL NORTH INTO
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 45 26 36 21 / 10 20 0 10
INL 40 13 32 13 / 20 10 0 0
BRD 49 24 37 23 / 0 10 0 0
HYR 50 26 39 22 / 10 20 10 0
ASX 49 31 37 21 / 10 50 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CDT MONDAY
FOR LSZ121-146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY FOR LSZ140>145.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GRANING
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1210 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.AVIATION 18Z DISCUSSION...STEADY STATE BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 3KFT-5KFT RANGE. A WEAK
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUS...WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
THE BNA AREA TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST...MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA WILL BE INCLUDED AFT 05Z
FOR CSV. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LESSEN AFT 12Z BUT CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION UPDATE...
CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF THE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. CLOSEST SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BACK ACROSS AR AND INTO NRN MS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST EAST OF THE
ARKLATEX. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
MORNING BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SFC FORCING IS INDICATED.
FOR THE FCST...LITTLE CHANGE IF ANY IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME. WAS
THINKING ABOUT PERHAPS LOWERING MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
BUT...18Z SFC TEMP PROGS CLEARLY SUPPORT THE CURRENT FCST HIGHS.
WILL THEREFORE MAKE NO CHANGES FOR NOW. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTH AND SPRINKLES NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO COVER IT. HRRR IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECASTS.
AVIATION...EXPECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CIGS NR 5K FT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POSSIBLE PATCHES OF
MVFR IN BR, WHERE CLOUDS BREAK DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1115 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DID PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HEAD INTO A REGION WITH NO
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THEREFORE...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MID/UPPER LOW AND
UPPER JET SHIFT FARTHER EAST. MADE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RESUME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WL IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
17Z ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVING INTO THE HOUSTON AREA WL SKIRT THE VCT AREA BY 14Z. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WL BE POSSIBLE AT VCT.
ELSEWHERE...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS THE RESPONSIBLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS QUICKLY NEWD. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CONDITIONS WL ONCE BEGIN DEVELOPING AS A MOIST FLOW PERSISTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
DISCUSSION...VISIBILITIES HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP ACROSS CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES...THIS TREND WL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...WL
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AND EXTREME NORTHEAST THROUGH 14Z. NO OTHER
CHANGES NECESSARY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER IN ASSCTN WITH A POTENT MIDLVL S/WV WAS CURRENTLY MOVING
SEWD THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS CLUSTER WL BEGIN WEAKENING BEFORE REACHING THE
NRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER IT WL LKLY NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE NRN CWA AND WL THUS GO WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE 12-18Z PD. ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WL
PREVAIL IN THE AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING S/WV...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS. LIMITED MOISTURE AND A MOSTLY
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR TNT AND MON. TEMPS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGS ABV NORMAL ON HIGHS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ON MON AND AROUND 7-10 DEGS ABV NORMAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE GULF MON NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SW FLOW ALOFT
OVER S TX WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK. AM EXPECTING ABV NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE WHICH WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR A SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DVLP AND MOVE INLAND.
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE AND AM
EXPECTING ISOLD SHRAS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL
BE TOO WARM FOR ANY DEEP CONVECTION/TSRA`S ON TUE. MOISTURE IS
PROGD TO DEEPEN THROUGH WED WITH PWAT`S NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA. AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION. KEPT THE MENTION
OF TSRAS FOR WED DUE TO THE INSTABILITY BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM THEREFORE DID NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN 30 POP.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PROG INCREASING POPS INTO THU BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT AND/OR COASTAL TROF. BOTH SHOW A
BDRY MVG INTO THE NW CWA ON THU BUT THE ECMWF IS FASTER AT BRINGING
THROUGH THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT AND DOES NOT BRING
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH UNTIL FRI NIGHT. DUE TO A WSW FLOW
ALOFT ON THU...AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING
THROUGH S TX INITIALLY. AM EXPECTING A COASTAL TROF TO DVLP LEADING
TO A NELY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA ON THU WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT STALLING
JUST N OR ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE CWA. THE FRONTAL BDRY LOSES ITS
DEFINITION THROUGH FRI WHILE THE COASTAL TROF LIFTS NE...THUS
LEADING TO A MODIFIED AIRMASS ACROSS S TX ON FRI THAT IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER. THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF IS PROGD TO
TRACK E ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH WILL HELP PUSH REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE INTO S TX BY FRI OR FRI NIGHT WITH EVEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR FILTERING INTO S TX THROUGH SAT. WITH THIS SCENARIO...POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST ON THU THEN DECREASING ON FRI FROM N TO S. DID NOT WANT
TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT ON THU/THU NIGHT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL SOLNS IS BETTER.
MARINE...A CONTINUED RELAXING OF THE GRADIENT IN THE SRN/CENTRAL
GULF WL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THE INCOMING SWELLS. THIS WL IN TURN
LOWER THE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO MODERATE TODAY. RESIDUAL SWELLS
AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE THREAT
FOR RIP CURRENTS ON MONDAY AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT CAUTION CONDITIONS
FOR THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY WL BE DUE TO SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 87 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 20
VICTORIA 85 66 86 69 86 / 30 10 10 10 20
LAREDO 91 72 92 74 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
ALICE 88 69 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
ROCKPORT 85 73 86 74 85 / 20 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 87 69 89 71 88 / 10 10 10 10 20
KINGSVILLE 87 70 88 72 89 / 10 10 10 10 20
NAVY CORPUS 84 74 85 77 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
CB/85...SHORT TERM