Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/26/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1047 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1045 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE TN VALLEY IS
ATTEMPTING TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM SRN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BACKING
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE ALLOWED THE ISOLD SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS TO INCREASE NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE WRN-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY... AND A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS HAVING TROUBLE
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN DACKS. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR SHOWS
SOME PCPN GETTING INTO THE WRN DACKS BTWN 03Z-08Z. THIS BAND LIFTS
QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH THE BACKING FLOW TO THE W/SW.
THE BEST CHC OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MAINLY NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WE CONTINUED A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CHANCE/LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION.
TEMP TRENDS READJUSTED AGAIN BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD...BUT MODERATED A BIT
BY THE VARIABLY CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S
TO L30S. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY EASTWARD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARDS DAY BREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK WITH THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. STRATO AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
THANKS IN PART TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN CHANNELING
WILL BE FAVORED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT NEAR 50 IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...PROMOTING CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
AIDED BY MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO UPPER 20S IN
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIENT TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON THE ELEVATION. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND CATSKILLS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GUSTY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY AROUND 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTS IN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOW 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
LOW 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO WIN BACK CONTROL OF THE
REGION AT MID-WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY RESULTING FROM THIS WEAK
PATTERN WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY ON.
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HANGING AROUND OUR
FORECAST AREA TO ASSIST WITH THIS.
A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY
WILL HEAD UP TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT IT TOO WILL STRUGGLE TO
SURVIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE ONLY RELUCTANTLY GIVES WAY BY SLIDING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTTOM LINE...
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX DURING THE EVENING
AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. FRIDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE MID 60S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MILDER AS A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES. NIGHTTIME LOWS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE LAST OF THESE NIGHTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
STRATOCUMULUS DIMINISHING EARLY ON...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER LIKE WAVE.
W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AT 4 KTS
OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-12 KTS TOWARDS DAY BREAK...THEN STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AT KALB IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT EACH
NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL ALSO
INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL RIVER
AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER. ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IRL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...
...CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM...
CURRENT...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THIS MORNING. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WITH NORTH TO NNE FLOW IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD IN ITS
WAKE. UPPER FLOW IS HIGHLY DIVGT OVHD AS AREA IS FIRMLY IN RR QUAD
OF 120-140KT JETSTREAK AND IS COMBINING WITH LARGE SWATH OF RH
VALUES AOA 80 PCT AOA 600MB TO PRODUCE A HIGH CLOUD (CI/CS/AS)
CANOPY WHICH HAS THICKENED AND BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
PENINSULA SINCE 00Z. THIS IS TEMPERING THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE
FALL BY A SOLID 2-5F DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE CWA...AND
SUSPECT ACTUAL MINS WILL WIND UP BEING A CAT OR SO HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.
TODAY/TONIGHT...
MODIFIED COOL ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS N-NNW DRAINAGE
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO NNE-NE DURING THE DAY. UPPER LEVEL PROGS
SHOW UPPER DIVG WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN WHILE RH VALUES ABOVE H50
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE
DAY....POSSIBLY ERODING SOME LATE ACROSS THE NORTH. CERTAINLY...IR
SATELLITE SHOWS OVERCAST TO BROKEN CONDITIONS WELL UPSTREAM COVERING
THE EASTERN GOMEX. WITH THAT IN MIND...WENT AHEAD AND MAKE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PCT COVERAGE OF OPAQUE CLOUD COVER AND
TWEAKED WORDING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS FOR ALL AREAS
TODAY. TEMPS WILL PEAK OUT IN THE 70S...AND IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICK
ENOUGH TO BLOCK OUT SIGNIF SUN...DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO SHAVE A
COUPLE DEGS FROM THOSE NUMBERS.
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO ERODE AND THIN OUT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME MARINE "COOL AIR" SC BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON COASTAL
AREAS AS SFC-H85 WINDS BECOME ONSHORE. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE
EXTENT OF THEIR GENERATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVER THE STILL WARM
ATLC SHELF WATERS/GULF STREAM. MINS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S WITH
SOME M50S NEAR THE OCALA FOREST/LAKE GEORGE REGION.
FRI-SAT...
A POLAR AIRMASS BUILDING DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
REINFORCE AN H100-H70 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER BY
DAYBREAK FRI. THE RESULTING DOME OF HIGH PRES WILL BLANKET MOST OF
THE CONUS E OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL FL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A STABLE AND SUBSIDING
AIRMASS WITH MAX PWAT VALUES AOB 0.9" WILL PRECLUDE ANY MEANINGFUL
SKY COVER IN THE FCST...LET ALONE ANY PRECIP.
NRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE H100-H70 LYR...SLOWLY VEERING TO THE
NE BLO H85 AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. COOL AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THIS FLOW REGIME
WILL KEEP TEMPS BLO CLIMO AVG. AFTN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE M/U70S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE U70S/L80S INTERIOR. PREDAWN TEMPS WILL HAVE A
WIDER RANGE AS THE DVLPG NE SFC WINDS PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR
ONSHORE ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST...KEEPING READINGS IN THE
L/M60S. MCLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL ALLOW A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE M50S N OF I-4 AND INTO
THE U50S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SUN-WED...
HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL LIFT INTO THE MID ATLC AND
MERGE WITH A NEW CANADIAN RIDGE OVER THE ERN SEABOARD EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT...SHALLOW NE FLOW ON SUN WILL DEEPEN THRU TUE
BEFORE VEERING TO THE E ON WED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW OCEAN
MOISTURE TO PUSH BACK ACRS THE EAST CENTRAL PENINSULA...ALLOWING THE
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS TO MODIFY.
NEITHER GFS/ECMWF NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP WITH THIS DVLPG WX PATTERN...BOTH PREFER TO KEEP POPS LARGELY
AOB 15PCT. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW PATTERNS SUCH AS THIS
INVARIABLY MANAGE TO PUSH LCL MOISTURE POCKETS ONSHORE FROM TIME TO
TIME...RESULTING IN ISOLD COVERAGE. ANY SUCH PRECIP WOULD HAVE
MINIMAL IMPACT AS NE FLOW PATTERNS DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION IN
CENTRAL FL.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH ENOUGH OCEAN MOISTURE ONSHORE TO ALLOW
SFC DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE L/M60S OVER THE INTERIOR...M/U60S
ALONG THE COAST...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WARMING TREND
WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK TO NEAR CLIMO AVG IN THE L/M80S. MIN TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE L/M60S INTERIOR AND N OF THE CAPE...AND INTO THE
U60S/L70S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH AOA BKN-OVC150 ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...CHOPPY BOATING CONDITIONS IN STORE WITH NRLY FLOW
OF AROUND 15KT THIS MORNING SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIOD
WIND CHOP WILL PRODUCE SEAS OF 3-4FT NEAR SHORE...AND AROUND 5FT IN
THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE JUST A BIT FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PLANE TO KEEP CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE
GULF STREAM UP THIS MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP AND CHOPPY SEAS.
FRI-SAT...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. POSITION OF THE
RIDGE WILL GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...BCMG
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NE ON SAT. SEAS BUILDING FROM 2-4FT TO
3-5FT ON FRI...HOLDING STEADY THRU SAT. WHILE TOTAL SEA HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO THE NEED FOR ANY STATEMENTS...SIGNIFICANT
WIND CHOP IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE OPPOSING NERLY BREEZE AND SRLY GULF
STREAM COMPONENT. SEAS WILL BE TREACHEROUS.
SUN-MON...RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/NRN GOMEX WILL MAINTAIN A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE BREEZE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY FRESHEN
OVER THE S OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATE MON AFTN AS THE RIDGE INTERACTS
WITH AN ERLY WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SEAS 3-4FT EARLY SUN...
BUILDING TO 4-5FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG LATE BY LATE MON NIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES BOTTOMING IN THE M-U30S TODAY FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. STRONG ADVECTION OF
EVEN DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRI AFTN THAT WILL PUSH LOW SFC RH
VALUES BLO 35PCT FOR 4-6HRS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. RH
VALUES WILL RECOVER BACK ABV 40PCT OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC/TRANSPORT
WINDS VEER TO THE NE AND PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ACRS THE
STATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 57 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 76 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 76 62 78 63 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 77 64 80 62 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 76 58 80 55 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 77 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 78 59 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 77 64 80 63 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
AVIATION...CRISTALDI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
103 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC-LIKE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH
PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE REGION BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RELAXING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOULD SEE MODEST RADIATIONAL PROCESSES
TAKE HOLD AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD COMPLETELY DECOUPLE. LOWS
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF JENKINS-SCREVEN-
ALLENDALE COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES LOOK
ON TARGET FOR NOW.
MIDNIGHT UPDATE TWEAKED A FEW TEMPS AND DEW POINTS...ALL OTHER
GRIDDED ELEMENTS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER ZONAL FLOW WITH WNW WINDS OF
20-25 KT AROUND 850 MB. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ANOTHER DAY OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL OCCUR...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. COOL TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES.
AN ARCTIC-LIKE FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
WITH AN EXPANSIVE COLD...DRY 1028 MB HIGH OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE WEAKENS ON FRIDAY SO THERE
WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO OFFSET THE COLD
ADVECTION. THUS HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S IN
SOUTHERN SC AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GA.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR. COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET. WE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...WITH READINGS AS LOW AS 34
DEGREES FAR INLAND TO AROUND 40 IN THE BELT CLOSER TO THE COAST.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KT OVERNIGHT...A BIT LOWER
FARTHER INLAND AS THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS TIGHT. WITH OVERNIGHT
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 28-31...THERE STANDS A DECENT CHANCE THAT
SOME OF OUR RURAL INLAND ZONES MAY EXPERIENCE SCATTERED FROST SO WE
WILL INCLUDE THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES...SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL DUE TO THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE SO HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE GOOD.
OVERALL THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEING
THE PRIMARY FEATURE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL THEN EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW
AS A STRONGER 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
BY TUESDAY. WE MAY SEE A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS...BUT LAND AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGHER RESOLUTION RAP AND H3R MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER SECONDARY WIND SURGE WORKING DOWN THE COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH.
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT THROUGH ABOUT 3-4 AM.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT NEARSHORE WATERS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE
WATERS. WE EXTENDED ADVISORIES FOR 3 MORE HOURS UNTIL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THE LAST SURGE HAD BEGUN TO EBB.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT RELATIVELY
QUIET ON THURSDAY AS WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE REGION. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL RUSH ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS...AND GOOD MIXING PROFILES WILL DEVELOP. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WE CURRENTLY SHOW WINDS/SEAS
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ350-352-354-374.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
IN THE NEAR TERM...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG/STRATUS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL TO WITH A FEW
DECREES OF TD VALUES. NAM/RAP/HRRR STILL SHOW BL MOISTURE
APPROACHING SATURATION IN THE WEST...WITH SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ADVERTISED BY MET GUIDANCE AND NAM. NOT REALLY
CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE...SO I PLAN ON LEAVING ONGOING FORECAST IN
PLACE.
WITH STORM TRACKS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND
DRY AIR MASS (BELOW 700MB) IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10-15F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (VALUES IN THE 50S)...WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS (BOTH OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN...WE WILL
BEGINNING OT SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A
STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE TROUGH AND LIFTING OF A WARM FRONT OVER
OUR CWA. IN RESPONSE BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN DROP SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY NW WIND DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS
NOT A LARGE DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THIS FROPA SO WE WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR SEASONAL VALUES (60S).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
SUMMARY...DRY AND MILD TO START NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING COLDER
WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP BY MID-WEEK.
SUNDAY...FORECAST HAS BEEN LOOKING LIKE A LOCK FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME MINOR RIDGING
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY...A TRANSITIONAL DAY...PROBABLY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE MON-TUES-WED PERIOD FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THE 00Z SUITE IS NOT ANY BETTER THAN EARLIER CYCLES.
GEM/ECMWF DEPICT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS DELAYS THE ARRIVAL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS THE GFS DEPICTS A MILDER MONDAY WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD LIMITING
HIGH TEMPS. THE GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD...INCLUDING
DEPICTING SOLUTIONS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY AM
THINKING IT WILL TURN OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH WEAK WAA IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE WHATSOEVER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. GEFS/ECMWF ENS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND AS WPC
POINTS OUT BY TUES THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS ARE MORE THAN 1000 MILES
APART AND THE SPREAD ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD BELIEVE A MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BEST
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF COLD
MID-WEEK THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY PRECIP...BUT SINCE THE
EVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DID NOT SPEND
TOO MUCH TIME WITH WEATHER GRIDS AND SPECIFIC TIMING. SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SOME PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW...BUT OTHERS ARE COMPLETELY DRY. THAT SAID...DO HAVE A
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AS THE COLD WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...WITH THE COLDEST LOWS OVER THE WEEK IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
LOW STRATUS WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AT BOTH GLD AND MCK WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY RISING. GLD
HAS BEEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS BUT A
TREND TOWARD BROKEN OR OVERCAST IS EXPECTED BASED ON SATELLITE
AND UPSTREAM OBS. THE TAF GENERALLY REFLECTS OB TRENDS AND SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY OPTIMISTIC WITH REGARDS TO
DIMINISHING SKY COVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ADDITIONAL
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ADJUST TIMING OF MVFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
527 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
IN THE NEAR TERM...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG/STRATUS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL TO WITH A FEW
DECREES OF TD VALUES. NAM/RAP/HRRR STILL SHOW BL MOISTURE
APPROACHING SATURATION IN THE WEST...WITH SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ADVERTISED BY MET GUIDANCE AND NAM. NOT REALLY
CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE...SO I PLAN ON LEAVING ONGOING FORECAST IN
PLACE.
WITH STORM TRACKS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND
DRY AIR MASS (BELOW 700MB) IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10-15F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (VALUES IN THE 50S)...WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS (BOTH OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN...WE WILL
BEGINNING OT SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A
STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE TROUGH AND LIFTING OF A WARM FRONT OVER
OUR CWA. IN RESPONSE BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN DROP SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY NW WIND DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS
NOT A LARGE DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THIS FROPA SO WE WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR SEASONAL VALUES (60S).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
SUMMARY...DRY AND MILD TO START NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING COLDER
WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP BY MID-WEEK.
SUNDAY...FORECAST HAS BEEN LOOKING LIKE A LOCK FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME MINOR RIDGING
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY...A TRANSITIONAL DAY...PROBABLY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE MON-TUES-WED PERIOD FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THE 00Z SUITE IS NOT ANY BETTER THAN EARLIER CYCLES.
GEM/ECMWF DEPICT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS DELAYS THE ARRIVAL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS THE GFS DEPICTS A MILDER MONDAY WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD LIMITING
HIGH TEMPS. THE GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD...INCLUDING
DEPICTING SOLUTIONS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY AM
THINKING IT WILL TURN OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH WEAK WAA IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE WHATSOEVER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. GEFS/ECMWF ENS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND AS WPC
POINTS OUT BY TUES THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS ARE MORE THAN 1000 MILES
APART AND THE SPREAD ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD BELIEVE A MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BEST
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF COLD
MID-WEEK THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY PRECIP...BUT SINCE THE
EVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DID NOT SPEND
TOO MUCH TIME WITH WEATHER GRIDS AND SPECIFIC TIMING. SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SOME PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW...BUT OTHERS ARE COMPLETELY DRY. THAT SAID...DO HAVE A
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AS THE COLD WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...WITH THE COLDEST LOWS OVER THE WEEK IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
3-3.5KFT REPORTED EARLY THIS MORNING. COULDNT RULE OUT CIGS
DROPPING TO MVFR CIGS AT KMCK BEFORE 15KT...SO INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUP. ITS HARD TO SAY HOW WIDESPREAD VIS RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG
WILL BE AT KGLD...WITH GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH AT THIS POINT.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. VIS ALREADY DROPPING TO AROUND 5-6SM
AT KGLD...SO WILL INTRODUCE MVFR GROUP AND MONITOR. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN 12KT OR LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT BOTH SITES
TODAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTER 09Z AT
KGLD AS LEE TROUGH BUILDS IN EASTERN COLORADO.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS NW FLOW STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
IN THE NEAR TERM...DESPITE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR
EARLY THIS MORNING PATCHY FOG/STRATUS STILL SEEMS REASONABLE OVER
WESTERN LOCATIONS WITH TEMPS BEGINNING TO COOL TO WITH A FEW
DECREES OF TD VALUES. NAM/RAP/HRRR STILL SHOW BL MOISTURE
APPROACHING SATURATION IN THE WEST...WITH SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ADVERTISED BY MET GUIDANCE AND NAM. NOT REALLY
CONFIDENT IN COVERAGE...SO I PLAN ON LEAVING ONGOING FORECAST IN
PLACE.
WITH STORM TRACKS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR CWA...AND
DRY AIR MASS (BELOW 700MB) IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT I EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE
ABOUT 10-15F COOLER THAN YESTERDAY (VALUES IN THE 50S)...WITH
COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS (BOTH OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA OF CONCERN...WE WILL
BEGINNING OT SEE A SHIFT IN THE UPPER PATTERN ALLOWING FOR A
STRENGTHENING OF THE LEE TROUGH AND LIFTING OF A WARM FRONT OVER
OUR CWA. IN RESPONSE BREEZY/MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN DROP SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY NW WIND DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS
NOT A LARGE DROP IN TEMPS ALOFT BEHIND THIS FROPA SO WE WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR SEASONAL VALUES (60S).
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT THU OCT 24 2013
SUMMARY...DRY AND MILD TO START NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING COLDER
WITH A CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIP BY MID-WEEK.
SUNDAY...FORECAST HAS BEEN LOOKING LIKE A LOCK FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME MINOR RIDGING
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
MONDAY...A TRANSITIONAL DAY...PROBABLY. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE MON-TUES-WED PERIOD FOR THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND THE 00Z SUITE IS NOT ANY BETTER THAN EARLIER CYCLES.
GEM/ECMWF DEPICT THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS DELAYS THE ARRIVAL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.
BECAUSE OF THIS THE GFS DEPICTS A MILDER MONDAY WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND ARRIVAL OF THE COLD LIMITING
HIGH TEMPS. THE GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE SPREAD...INCLUDING
DEPICTING SOLUTIONS MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. ULTIMATELY AM
THINKING IT WILL TURN OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH WEAK WAA IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA AND INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE WHATSOEVER FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK. GEFS/ECMWF ENS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND AS WPC
POINTS OUT BY TUES THE SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS ARE MORE THAN 1000 MILES
APART AND THE SPREAD ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD BELIEVE A MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BEST
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF COLD
MID-WEEK THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH WINTRY PRECIP...BUT SINCE THE
EVEN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN DID NOT SPEND
TOO MUCH TIME WITH WEATHER GRIDS AND SPECIFIC TIMING. SOME SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE PROFILE TO SUPPORT SOME PERIODS OF
RAIN/SNOW...BUT OTHERS ARE COMPLETELY DRY. THAT SAID...DO HAVE A
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS AS THE COLD WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND LAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
ORDINARY...WITH THE COLDEST LOWS OVER THE WEEK IN THE 20S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT WED OCT 23 2013
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN THE MORNING. BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT BOTH TAF SITES WILL HAVE
LOW CEILINGS IN THE MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS...SUBSIDENCE...AND
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL BE PRESENT OVER BOTH SITES. NAM GUIDANCE
WENT VERY HEAVY WITH FOG OVER KGLD...BUT HAD NO FOG FOR
KMCK...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE DID NOT SEEM TO MENTION FOG.
CONSIDERING IF BOTH TAF SITES HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WENT
AHEAD AND PUT FOG IN FOR KMCK. ONLY REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 3SM
SINCE THE NAM GUIDANCE SEEMED TO BE A BIT TOO HEAVY ON REDUCING
VISIBILITY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD RETURN TO VFR MID-LATE
MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...ALW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
DID AN UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON. ALSO TWEAKED POPS AND HONED IN ON THE BEST CHANCES OF
PCPN OCCURRING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EAST KENTUCKY CONNECTED TO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW CONTINUES
TO SEND COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RISE
TODAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
VERY LIGHT PCPN FALLING...FROM THE CLOUDS BLANKETING EAST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES. FLURRIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING OVER
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
LATEST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING
A POCKET OF GOOD LIFT AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE PCPN...GENERATING
A MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK AND FEEL TO THE RETURNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE SFC AND
THEREFORE COULD BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH SNOW OR SLEET. JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH...SO ACCUMULATION WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE EVEN IN PLACES THAT MANAGE TO SEE A DECENT SHOWER.
ALSO...ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 3500
FEET...WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
FINE TUNE THE HIGH TEMPS AND FLATTEN THE DIURNAL CURVE. WILL ALSO
ADJUST THE POPS TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NEARLY UNIFORMLY COME IN
COLDER FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...SO WILL BE CONTINUING THE
FREEZE WARNING THERE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WE GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
EAST TONIGHT TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THEM TO A WARNING. LOOK FOR
UPDATES TO THE HWO...ZONES...AND NPW TO COME OUT SHORTLY...JUST AFTER
THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THICKER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN BROAD ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING.
ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES EVEN
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE EAST TOWARDS DUSK...HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING VIRGINIA
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE FAR EAST WITH THE
AID OF UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WENT WITH A FREEZE WATCH.
RISING HEIGHTS AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH THE COLD
AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST JUST
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE EASTERN KENTUCKY IS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY DRY AND WILL BE
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AND AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
AFTER MONDAY BECOMES VERY IFFY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS OFF THE
WEST COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO KICK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE AS THIS TYPE OF TRANSITION IS
USUALLY PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MODELS. WILL BE WAITING TO SEE A LITTLE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...JUST NUDGES THE TEMPS TOWARD THE CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND FOR NOW. WILL STAY WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET
WILL SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY BEING SEEN ELSEWHERE
IN THE FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING...WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THE LONGEST. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH DO EXPECT SOME STRATOCU DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A TIME AROUND SUNSET BEFORE THESE BREAK UP TOWARD MIDNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WILL
SWITCH MORE TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND SETTLE DOWN ONCE THE
SHOWERS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1105 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EAST KENTUCKY CONNECTED TO
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW CONTINUES
TO SEND COLD AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A DIURNAL RISE
TODAY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME
VERY LIGHT PCPN FALLING...FROM THE CLOUDS BLANKETING EAST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES. FLURRIES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 DO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF FALLING OVER
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE
LATEST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING
A POCKET OF GOOD LIFT AND THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE PCPN...GENERATING
A MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK AND FEEL TO THE RETURNS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES JUST OFF THE SFC AND
THEREFORE COULD BE MIXED AT TIMES WITH SNOW OR SLEET. JUST ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH...SO ACCUMULATION WILL NOT
BE AN ISSUE EVEN IN PLACES THAT MANAGE TO SEE A DECENT SHOWER.
ALSO...ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES...AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 3500
FEET...WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO
FINE TUNE THE HIGH TEMPS AND FLATTEN THE DIURNAL CURVE. WILL ALSO
ADJUST THE POPS TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR.
LOOKING AHEAD TO TONIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE NEARLY UNIFORMLY COME IN
COLDER FOR LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...SO WILL BE CONTINUING THE
FREEZE WARNING THERE. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT WE GET COLD ENOUGH IN THE
EAST TONIGHT TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THEM TO A WARNING. LOOK FOR
UPDATES TO THE HWO...ZONES...AND NPW TO COME OUT SHORTLY...JUST AFTER
THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
JIVE BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THICKER
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN BROAD ONGOING CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SINCE MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST...HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING.
ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW FLAKES EVEN
IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS IN THE EAST TOWARDS DUSK...HOWEVER NO
ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN BORDERING VIRGINIA
COULD SEE A DUSTING TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE FAR EAST WITH THE
AID OF UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT LOOKS TO TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT. AS SUCH...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST...WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS...WENT WITH A FREEZE WATCH.
RISING HEIGHTS AND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY TO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH THE COLD
AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST JUST
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE EASTERN KENTUCKY IS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRETTY DRY AND WILL BE
FALLING APART AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AND AT
THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST
AFTER MONDAY BECOMES VERY IFFY DUE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS OFF THE
WEST COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO KICK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE
UPPER LOW WHICH IS NOT A SURPRISE AS THIS TYPE OF TRANSITION IS
USUALLY PROBLEMATIC FOR THE MODELS. WILL BE WAITING TO SEE A LITTLE
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BEFORE CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...JUST NUDGES THE TEMPS TOWARD THE CONSENSUS MODEL
BLEND FOR NOW. WILL STAY WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN...WITH SNOW POSSIBLY BEING SEEN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER DUSK
IN THE FAR EAST...WHERE THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST.
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRATOCU WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5K FEET AGL...ALTHOUGH ANY MORE
INTENSE SHOWER COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER THE CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY DUSK. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-109-111-112-114>117.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KYZ107-
110-113-118>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
108 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE EAST FROM
QUEBEC THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM: LATEST OBSVD TEMPS WERE USED TO UPDATE FCST HRLY TEMPS TO
UNCHGD FCST LOWS AT 6 AM THU. OTHERWISE...WE DID SOME PRELIM WORK
TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N AND W FOR RN/SN SHWRS FOR THU AFTN
INTO ERLY EVE.
943 PM UPDATE: CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH
LOW PRES WELL SE OF CAPE COD ARE BRUSHING SRN MAINE THIS EVENING.
THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOSTLY REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT
MAY BRUSH THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL DOWNEAST FROM ABOUT 05-08Z WITH
A BIT OF -RA. THE LAST OF THE -RA WILL SHIFT WELL EAST OF THE AREA
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK. CLOUDS IN THE NORTH HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP
WITH THE SKY CLEAR TO P/CLDY MOST AREAS FROM ABOUT KMLT NORTH.
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE SKY/POP/WX/WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. ALSO LOADED THE PAST FEW HOURS OF
OBSERVED DATA AND INTERPOLATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
630 PM UPDATE: THE REGIONAL RADARS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKE LATE FALL
THIS EVENING WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COMING OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH A BAND OF RAIN CLIPPING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FROM
AN OFFSHORE STORM.
ORGNL DISC: THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE HOW
MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION CLIPS THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN IN THAT
THE HRRR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND THE SREF
6-HOUR POPS HAVE A 75 PCT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST 1/4 OF THE CWA. FOR THIS UPDATE WILL BEEF UP THE POPS TO
LIKELY OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND TO HIGH CHANCE ALONG THE COAST.
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UP
FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATE(S) THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE PAST FEW HOURS OF OBSERVED DATA WAS LOADED WITH
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE DOWNEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EAST, SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN COMBINATION WITH
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME VERY CHILLY AIR AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER.
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE IN THE TROUGH BEGINS TO FLOW INTO
THE REGION. SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY AFFECT NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS LATE IN
THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER TROF
CROSSING THE REGION FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES DRAWS A COLD/OCCLUDED
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. THE
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WOULD SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
FOR SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND MOSTLY RAIN
DOWNEAST. COULD HAVE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE EAST EARLY SUNDAY WITH
STEADIER PRECIPITATION ENDING. COULD THEN HAVE LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT THEN
CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY REGARDING WHETHER A POSSIBLE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THERE COULD BE A SHORT
WINDOW OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KBHB OVERNIGHT IF THE AREA OF RAIN
OFFSHORE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT ODDS FAVOR CONDITIONS REMAINING
VFR. THE WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN.
SHORT TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOSTLY
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
112 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WHICH MOVED OVER
ONTARIO EARLIER THIS WEEK...WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH
A SERIES OF WEAKER STORM SYSTEMS FORECAST TO SWEEP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...TO GENERATE A WINTRY RAIN SNOW MIX OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES AS EXPECTED...WITH PRECIP TYPE MAINLY RAIN
NOW NEAR THE COAST...AND STILL MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
INLAND...BUT WITH EVEN GAYLORD RECENTLY REPORTING JUST RAIN
OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER ECHOES. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MELTING
LAYERS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...AND NOT TERRIBLY
SURPRISING GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL OCTOBER AFTER ALL. NOT REALLY A
BIG DEAL SINCE ANY SNOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WON`T ACCUMULATE
ANYWAY...WITH GOING HIGHS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK...THOUGH MAY HAVE
TO LOWER A FEW DEGREES HIGHEST SPOTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
STEADY AS SHE GOES. FAIRLY CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT SETUP STILL IN
PLACE THIS MORNING AS WELL-DISCUSSED BY THE MID SHIFT
FORECASTER...FEATURING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND COLD AIR (H8
TEMP RIGHT AROUND -6C PER 12Z APX RAOB) FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE REGION. NOTABLE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE IS CURRENTLY
MEANDERING ASHORE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...AND HAS NO DOUBT HELPED TO
INDUCE A BIT OF AN ADDITIONAL FLARE-UP OF ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH SOME DOWNRIGHT HEAVY SNOWS NOTED IN A COUPLE
BANDS...ENHANCED BY A NICE CROSS-HAIR SIGNATURE THROUGH THE DGZ
(I.E. SOME BIG FLAKES AT TIMES). HAVE SEEN SOME DECENT TOTALS IN
THE 2-4" RANGE OVERNIGHT UP ACROSS THE HIGH SPOTS...INCLUDING
ROUGHLY 3" HERE AT THE OFFICE.
THE TREND OF SOME BEEFIER BANDS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL PROCESSES TAKE HOLD...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY DEEPER LAYER SHEAR (ONLY ABOUT 15-ISH KNOTS) TO
HELP HOLD BANDING TOGETHER THROUGH THE DAY. SUBTLE LOSS OF MID
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALSO AID IN A SLOW BREAKDOWN OF THE BETTER
LAKE EFFECT PATTERN...BUT HAVE NO DOUBTS THAT BOUTS OF PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE DAY.
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...WILL PROBABLY SEE MAINLY FROZEN PRECIP UP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THERE THE SURFACE- BASED MELTING LAYER
WILL ONLY BE 1KFT THICK AT BEST...WITH MAINLY RAIN NEAR THE
COAST...THOUGH WITH PROBABLY SOME RIMED SNOWFLAKES/GRAUPEL IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
JUST ABOUT DONE AT THE MOMENT (SAVE FOR ONE OR TWO PERSISTENT
BANDS - ONE IN PARTICULAR OVER OTSEGO COUNTY)...AND PROBABLY SAFE
TO LET THE LES ADVISORY EXPIRE ON TIME AT 11AM. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...JUST SOME COSMETIC CHANGES...WITH GOING HIGHS MAINLY
LOW/MID 40S LOOKING JUST FINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
ADDED MANISTEE...BENZIE...LEELANAU AND GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. RADAR RETURNS THERE HAVE BEEN JUST
AS IMPRESSIVE AS ANYWHERE. IT`S DIFFICULT...AS SHORELINE OBS HAVE
BEEN PREDOMINANTLY RAIN. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES JUST INLAND HAVE
QUICKLY DIPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...SNOW IS LIKELY THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE WITH
ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW IS HEAVY TOO...AND SOME TREES MAY HAVE
LIMBS SNAP DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
CURRENTLY...LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE INTENSIFYING AND
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THE ALREADY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER WATERS/DEEP INSTABILITY AND
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ARE GETTING ENHANCED WITH AN APPROACHING SFC
TROUGH/GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BEING THROWN INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE IS VERIFIED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING
SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH.
THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO TRIED TO BAND A BIT MORE AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. COMBINED
WITH THE INCREASED INTENSITIES...HAS RESULTED IN SKIES ACTUALLY
CLEARING A BIT BETWEEN THE BANDS ACROSS THE ADVISORY COUNTIES. THE
STRONGER CELLS WERE MOST LIKELY...AND ACCORDING TO AREA
OBSERVATIONS...BRINGING JUST SNOW...EVEN TO COMMUNITIES CLOSE TO
THE WARMER LAKE MICHIGAN/WHITEFISH BAY WATERS. THAT SAID...THERE
WERE STILL MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER...WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S. THIS HAS PRESENTED
A MORE DIFFICULT SCENARIO FOR DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO OCCUR. THE
TROUGH HAS PASSED THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN UPPER...AND A WEDGE OF
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH HAS CALMED THINGS
DOWN UP THERE. THE LOCATION FOR THE BETTER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WHERE ADVERTISED...IN THE COLDER AREAS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE CURRENT SNOWS WERE MOST INTENSE...AND
ALSO WHERE THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY EVEN MORE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TODAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THIS MORNING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTATIONS IN SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY...AND RIGHT DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE IS
SOME SLIGHT 1C WARMING SEEN AHEAD/WITH THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH MAY
SERVE TO LOWER SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS AND KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A TOUCH.
HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS MINOR AND DID NOT LET THAT ENTER INTO THE
SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WET SLUSHY SNOW FOR MOST
AREAS IN THE ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHERE IT HAS BEEN COLDEST...AND FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
WARMING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AFTER A
PERIOD OF DOWNTIME IN THE SUBSIDENCE REGIME/DRYING BEHIND THE
TROUGH...THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR MORE NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTER WEARS ON HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT. THIS GOES FOR NW LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL...DESPITE
DEEPEST MOISTURE LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...AND MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.
TONIGHT...MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION..AND WINDS
BECOMING LESS CYCLONIC IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER...ALTHOUGH STILL
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE NW. MOISTURE IS STILL RELATIVELY
DEEP WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS STILL AT 8KFT OR SO. IT`S GONNA KEEP
PRODUCING PERIODIC MAINLY CELLULAR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
SNOW BEING THE DEAL ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL FORCING OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...SNOWFALL ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT. MAYBE
A COUPLE OF INCHES...CENTERED IN/AROUND THE INTERSECTION OF
OTSEGO/ANTRIM/KALKASKA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH TOWARD
12Z/DAYBREAK/LATE LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS ADVERTISING SOME
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL -DIVQ AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
MAY NOT PLAY A HUGE PART IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE VERY LATE
ARRIVAL...BUT AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS DEFINITELY
POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
CHILLY...DAMP WEATHER SET TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
DEEP LAYER TROUGHING REMAINS PROMINENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
AIR LOOKS TO BE TEMPORARILY REINFORCED HEADING INTO THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS A RATHER INTENSE CLIPPER SYSTEM CUTS THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. LARGE SCALE PATTERN
STILL LOOKS TO UNDERGO SOME CHANGES HEADING INTO NEXT WORK WEEK (IN
NO SMALL PART TO THE EVENTUAL INGEST OF REMNANTS OF CURRENT FAR WEST
PACIFIC TYPHOON "FRANCISCO" INTO THE FLOW REGIME)...WITH RAPID EAST
PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFICATION. THIS SLIGHT WEST DISPLACEMENT OF CURRENT
WESTERN NOAM RIDGING WILL ALLOW STRONG ENERGY TO DIVE INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FORCING DOWNSTREAM SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPMENT AND
DISPLACEMENT OF NORTHERN STREAM BACK INTO CANADA. WHILE COLDEST AIR
WILL RETREAT NORTH AS THIS OCCURS...STILL LOOKING AT A CONTINUATION
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO CENTER ON ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES...BOTH SYNOPTIC AND LAKE-DRIVEN...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE
TRENDS.
AFTER A MULTI-PERIOD OF NEAR STEADY-STATE W TO NW LAKE EFFECT...
WINDS WILL QUICKLY BACK FRIDAY AHEAD OF EARLIER MENTIONED CLIPPER
SYSTEM. EARLY MORNING WNW LAKE EFFECT WILL STEADILY TRANSITION TO A
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE DAY. BACKING WIND
FIELDS...DEPARTURE OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SUPPORT...AND LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS ALL SUGGEST JUST LIGHT ACTIVITY. COLD THERMAL
PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS INTERIOR
REGIONS. EXCELLENT GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR CLIPPER SYSTEM TO PASS OFF
TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST
FORCED ASCENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH WHERE MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE MAXIMIZED. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE FOR INCOMING
FRONT TO ACT UPON. HOWEVER...OVER-WATER INSTABILITY REMAINS...AND
FORCED MOISTURE FLUX OF THE WATERS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWER...FIRST IN LEADING WAA REGIME...FOLLOWED BY FORCED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN MARGINAL FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE
ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS...WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. POST-FRONTAL CAA REGIME
BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH HEADING THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK AS
EARLIER MENTIONED PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOPS. STRONG MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXIS SUPPORTS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LAKES RIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE
ECMWF HAS HAD THIS IDEA...AND ALSO SUPPORTS A SLOWER EJECTION OF
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW. ABOVE LENDS CREDENCE FOR A SOUTHWARD
DISPLACED BAROCLINIC ZONE...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPORT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK (PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG MOISTURE STARVED COLD
FRONT). LATEST GFS MUCH QUICKER EJECTING THIS WESTERN ENERGY AND
ALSO HAS BAROCLINIC AXIS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...BRINGING RAINS INTO
OUR AREA AS QUICKLY AS TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST CONUS ENERGY OFTEN SLOWER
TO EJECT THAN ANTICIPATED...WHICH FAVORS THE SLOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. WILL TREND TOWARD THIS LESS AGGRESSIVE
SCENARIO...KEEPING JUST SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN MENTION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BELIEVING MAIN ACTION WILL STAY WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK (IF NOT A TOUCH LATER).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SETUP WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH
A BIT LESS OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED THAN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
SHOULD STILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS RAIN
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...AND MAINLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN
(PLN/TVC/MBL)...WITH CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE LOW END OF VFR
RANGE...THOUGH PERHAPS BRIEFLY DIPPING TO MVFR WITHIN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS SOME INLAND CLEARING TOWARD
APN AS THE FLOW GETS QUITE LIGHT AFTER 07Z. AN DECREASE IN RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH A FURTHER
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
PRETTY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR MANY OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TODAY...AND
FOR LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DO SUBSIDE FRIDAY...BUT
QUICKLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE BACKING OUT
OF THE SW IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST ALL OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-
347>349.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
933 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WESTERLY WINDS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ARE ALLOWING LAKE
EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. A LULL IN LAKE EFFECT WILL OCCUR
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND GETS GOING FRIDAY NIGHT.
ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE TUG HILL...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND A THIRD ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR THIS SEASON IN
UNDERWAY THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THE
SNOW IS HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEING REPORTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT IN
PLACE ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY EXTENDING INTO ONEIDA. A SECOND NARROWER
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT HAS RECENTLY FORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN
BAND STREAMING ACROSS THE OSWEGO/JEFFERSON COUNTY BORDER INTO
CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTY. THE POSITION OF THE LAKE BANDS ARE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS EXPECTED. WITH THE MAIN BAND
FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL...THIS MAY END UP KEEPING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SEVERAL INCHES BELOW WHAT WAS EXPECTED WITH A MORE
INTENSE BAND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TUG. RADAR DERIVED ECHO TOPS
SHOWING THE AVERAGE HEIGHT/EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS AROUND 14-15 KFT.
THE SHALLOWER THAN EXPECTED NATURE OF THE LAKE BANDS HAS NOT
PRODUCED ANY RECENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY BUT A FEW STROKES WERE
OBSERVED IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. RECENT MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING
THE HRRR AND RGEM FORECAST THE LAKE BAND TO LIFT NORTH FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
THE LAKES. BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE WILL KEEP CURRENT LAKE ADVISORY
AND WARNING IN EFFECT BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WARMING TEMPS WILL
MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR SNOW TO FALL AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT
DYNAMIC PROCESS WITHIN THE BAND MAY CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE EFFECT IS MORE DISORGANIZED WITH AN MORE UNFAVORABLE FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKE. TWO DISORGANIZED BANDS ARE FOUND SOUTH OF BUFFALO.
ONE ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE OTHER CLOSER TO THE NY/PA
BORDER. A FEW REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED WITH 2-3 SLUSHY INCHES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION DUE TO DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE BANDS. RADAR ECHO
TOPS HERE SHOWING CONVECTION EVEN MORE SHALLOW ONLY AVERAGING AROUND
10KFT.
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
EXPECT ALL BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE
AND DISORGANIZED GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE
CREATES SOME TURBULENT MIXING. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE LOWER LAKES WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE
LAKE EFFECT BANDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE A LARGER SHIFT SOUTH GOING
INTO THE EVENING AS FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH.
TONIGHT...THE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO AND INLAND TO CENTRAL NY...WITH PRECIP AFFECTING
METRO ROCHESTER AND SYRACUSE...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR WESTWARD AS
NIAGARA COUNTY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS WILL
ALLOW THE LAKE BAND TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIKEWISE A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH A LAKE HURON CONNECTION TAKING THE STRONGER
CORE OF THE BAND OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE ERIE PA
VICINITY. STILL EXPECT ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW ON THE HILLS OF
SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE
REGION WITH LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH LINGERING
LAKE CONVECTION AND IMPACTS OF DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
SATURDAY.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE SAME AS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND COLD AIR REMAINING IN
PLACE AND INVERSION HEIGHTS STILL IN THE 15K-20K FOOT RANGE. EARLY
FRIDAY...ON GOING NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY FROM ROCHESTER TO SYRACUSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE DAY WITH THE LOSS OF THE
DIURNAL COMPONENT. PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW INLAND
FROM BOTH LAKES DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH
DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE ACTIVITY IS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE BACKING LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
LOWERING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
FOR LAKE EFFECT...ALTHOUGH WITH WHAT ACTIVITY THAT DOES GET
GENERATED WILL BE WORKING NORTHWARD WITH THE BACKING FLOW.
SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS LOW
LEVEL JET IMPINGES UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS WILL
END THE LAKE EFFECT...BUT SPREAD AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF RAIN ALTHOUGH MAY START AS A MIX OR ALL SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL YIELD A WINDY DAY SATURDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A BRIEF LAKE EFFECT
EVENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
EXPECT MORE SPARSE SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES TOWARD OUR
REGION.
ON MONDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
PENNSYLVANIA AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE 12Z GFS/GGEM
SUGGEST RIDGING WILL BE AMPLE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY...WITH
THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A GLANCING BLOW BY THE SHORTWAVE. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT DUE TO A WESTERLY FLOW AND MEAN 850
MB TEMPS OF -3C...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
ELSEWHERE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL
STALL NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COMBINED WITH A NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. AFTER THIS...A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
SET UP A WSW FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF LIFT A WEAK SURFACE
LOW TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT DIFFER ON
TIMING WITH THE GFS NOTABLY FASTER. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
KJHW WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS...WITH SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY...AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT MAY LIFT TO MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN VFR. TONIGHT IFR WILL RETURN TO KJHW AS THE LAKE EFFECT
SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD KERI WITH THE APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE
FORECAST ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER NIAGARA AND UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVERS AS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REMAIN UNDER COLD
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT IS GENERATING GUSTY WINDS. WAVES WILL BUILD
THROUGH TODAY AS WINDS BACK TO THE WEST AND FETCH INCREASES ACROSS
THE LAKES WITH WAVES BUILDING AS HIGH AS 7 FEET ON LAKE ERIE AND 9
FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS FLOW
ONCE AGAIN BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FRIDAY BEFORE FRESHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITH A POTENTIAL FOR GALES SATURDAY AS A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS/WAVES ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ006.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
144 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR IS ON THE WAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
AND PUSHES OFF THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THE FIRST FROST OR FREEZE OF
THE SEASON COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A
SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1:45 AM THURSDAY...CLEAR AND COLD EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH
IS EXACTLY AS EXPECTED. LATEST OBS SHOW MID TO UPPER 40S MOST
PLACES...EVEN CLOSE TO THE COAST. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THIS
EVENING. THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THIS FALL SEASON IS SPREADING DOWN
TO THE EAST COAST BEACHES...AND WELL- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BUT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH REGION.
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING RAPIDLY AND SHOULD END UP BETWEEN
+3C AND +7C ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR
BUILDS IN THERE IS A REGION OF TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
DISCERNIBLE ON SURFACE MAPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND
EASTERN PIEDMONT REGION. THIS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS THEN OFFSHORE...BRINGING A BRIEF (2-3 HOUR) PERIOD
OF GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING BY QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. ALMOST
ALL MODELS SHOW THIS...AND THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS SHOW
ANTICIPATED TRENDS WITH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES QUITE WELL.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO FORECAST LOWS...STILL
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER
30S INLAND. EVEN THOUGH INLAND WINDS SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT (5
MPH OR LESS) LATE...THERE SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT HUMIDITY TO
PRODUCE FROST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...EARLY ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD A
CONFLUENT H5 PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION
WITH TROFFING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
VORTICITY IN THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY CHANNELED...NEVERTHELESS THIS
SETUP WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A DRY
COLUMN WILL PREVAIL...THE EXCEPTION IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO BACKING LOW-
LEVEL WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT/SURGE. BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...AND A DECOUPLED WIND FIELD BY
FRIDAY EVENING WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS WILL LIKELY DROP TO AT OR BELOW
FREEZING DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MID 30S EXPECTED MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS (UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 AT THE COAST). THESE ARE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS FALL...AND FROST IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WARMER COAST. OVERALL
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT THE MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH ARE UPPER 40S THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH/COLD AIR TONGUE
CROSSES THE REGION ON SATURDAY...850MB TEMPS GENERALLY ABOUT 2-3C TO
START THE DAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WARMS THE
LAYER TO 6-7C. AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG
ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE TEMPS
FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE AND ANOTHER VERY CHILLY DAY EXPECTED. THE
OVERALL HIGHER THETA AIR WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AS LOWS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 40...NOT AS CHILLY AS THE
PRIOR TWO BUT STILL A GOOD 10-15 BELOW CLIMO. A LIGHT SOUTH WIND
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND THERE SHOULD BE DEEPER MIXING ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS MUCH CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE SHY OF NORMAL. A DISSIPATING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH FAR TOO
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO CAUSE MUCH MORE THAN JUST A WIND
SHIFT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEARLY
ZONAL AND QUITE WEAK AS THE LARGE TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN CANADA
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND SOME INCREASING AMPLITUDE TAKES SHAPE OUT
WEST...KEEPING OUT WEATHER DRY AND SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A RADIATIONAL INVERSION. WINDS
MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM AS THERE WILL BE A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT THAT WILL KEEP WINDS AT 5-10KTS. THERE WILL ALSO
BE SOME RENEWED COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT MAY MIX THINGS A BIT.
THURSDAY...LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED SKIES. A SOUTHWEST
GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:45 AM THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BACK BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL ALLOW SCA TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 2 AM.
LATEST OBS SHOW 2 TO 4 FT SEAS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WITHIN 20 NM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE MID-SOUTH REGION...WHILE LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. A REGION OF STRONG WINDS
(25-35 KNOTS) 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL CURRENTLY EXISTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...AND SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE IN THE
NEXT HOUR. SINCE MARINE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE A GOOD 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN INLAND TEMPERATURES...I ANTICIPATE THESE STRONGER
WINDS TO BE MIXED DOWN TO THE OCEAN SURFACE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
SOON INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.
THE LATEST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS DEPICT THIS
SURGE OF NORTHWEST WINDS QUITE WELL...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS
UPDATE. I HAVE EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOUTHWARD TO
INCLUDE ALL OF MY SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE
ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO 2 A.M. AFTER 2 A.M. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WIND DIRECTIONS VEER MORE NORTHERLY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO WAVE HEIGHT FORECASTS WHICH
STILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT ALONG MOST OF THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF 5-FOOTERS AWAY FROM SHORE NEAR CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SURGE OF COOL AIR WILL WANE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DECREASE IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CREATE A FETCH LIMITATION IN THE LOCAL WAVE GROWTH THUS A RANGE OF
SEAS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A MUCH DECREASING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME LATE DAY
VARIABILITY IN THE OTHERWISE NORTHERLY FLOW. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SHIFTS WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LEADING TO
A BIT OF A BACKING. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A DISSIPATING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
MARINE...REK/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
UPDATE IS FOR SKY COVER TRENDS TODAY. AN AREA OF STRATUS CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS OVER EASTERN MONTANA ERODING. HAVE UPDATED
THE SKY CONDITIONS WITH THE LATEST 16 UTC RUC MODEL RUN AS IT HAS
THE BEST GRASP OF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
- THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OVERCAST - OVER MOST OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAD
ENTERED FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY BOTTINEAU AND
ROLETTE COUNTIES. THE MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE WAS ALSO A BAND OF CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS...OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN/SOUTHERN ALBERTA/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING LAYER MOISTURE
FIELDS...MAKING THE CLOUD COVER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS DO NOT ENVISION A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY - BUT MORE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN NATURE. HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS A RESULT - BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY - WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST...AND MID 40S IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT TO
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE
STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AIR
FRIDAY...TURNING COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN
REGARDS TO POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING.
FOR FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE WEST IN THE MORNING...THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR ADVISORY
WIND CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OF
NEAR 30 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
LOOK AT THIS WITH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL NOT REALLY MAKE A DENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS AS IS THE CASE MANY TIMES...ADIABATIC
MIXING WILL ALLOW THE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PEAKING BETWEEN 50F AND 60F
BEFORE THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WHICH IS AHEAD OF A STRONG ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER COLD
FRONT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL...FOLLOWED
BY A NORTH TO SOUTH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL SNOW
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DESPITE COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR ALL
SNOW...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT INITIALLY RESIDES ALONG THE LEE
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS STEADILY PROGRESSES IT EAST
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOWS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR INITIALLY...WITH SNOW IN THE WEST SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHUNTS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL JUST CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION VIA THE ECMWF PAST FEW RUNS IS A SHIFT FURTHER WEST.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 15F AND 25.
FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY AND CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
A WIDESPREAD LAYER OF STATUS WITH CEILINGS AT OR NEAR MVFR
CONDITIONS IS OVER ALL TAF SITES IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO SLOWLY ERODE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS SOME SIGNS OF EROSION OF THE CLOUD LAYER
IS ALREADY SHOWING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. WINDS WILL ALSO
TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
609 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS/MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE BEST MODEL THAT FITS
THE CURRENT LOCATION/SCENARIO IS THE HRRR CLOUD BASE HEIGHT/CEILING.
THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR AN EXPANSION OF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
INTO CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA....INCLUDING
THE SOUTHWEST AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN PARTICULAR THROUGH MID
MORNING. A GRADUAL THINNING AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE SKY GRIDS THROUGH 18Z. REST
OF FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY.
CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
NORTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SATELLITE LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
- THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OVERCAST - OVER MOST OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN...EAST OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE LOW CLOUDS HAD
ENTERED FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY BOTTINEAU AND
ROLETTE COUNTIES. THE MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN. THERE WAS ALSO A BAND OF CLOUDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS...OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN/SOUTHERN ALBERTA/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE BLACK HILLS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING LAYER MOISTURE
FIELDS...MAKING THE CLOUD COVER A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS DO NOT ENVISION A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY - BUT MORE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IN NATURE. HAVE LOWERED EXPECTED
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS A RESULT - BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY - WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST...AND MID 40S IN
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH AXIS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT TO
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY SEE
STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AIR
FRIDAY...TURNING COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH
COLDER AIR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN
REGARDS TO POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION...AMOUNTS...AND TIMING.
FOR FRIDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH THE WEST IN THE MORNING...THEN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR ADVISORY
WIND CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OF
NEAR 30 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WILL MAKE A MENTION OF
THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS
LOOK AT THIS WITH THE LATEST SOUNDINGS FOR A POSSIBLE WIND
ADVISORY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY. THE COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL NOT REALLY MAKE A DENT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS AS IS THE CASE MANY TIMES...ADIABATIC
MIXING WILL ALLOW THE WARMER AIR ALOFT TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PEAKING BETWEEN 50F AND 60F
BEFORE THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH MOST OF
SATURDAY WILL TRANSITION TO WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WHICH IS AHEAD OF A STRONG ALBERTA TYPE CLIPPER COLD
FRONT. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERALL...FOLLOWED
BY A NORTH TO SOUTH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. POST FRONTAL SNOW
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DESPITE COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR ALL
SNOW...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT INITIALLY RESIDES ALONG THE LEE
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE GFS STEADILY PROGRESSES IT EAST
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOWS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR INITIALLY...WITH SNOW IN THE WEST SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BUT SHUNTS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL JUST CROSSING
THE SOUTHERN BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND IN SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION VIA THE ECMWF PAST FEW RUNS IS A SHIFT FURTHER WEST.
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE ALLBLEND SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 15F AND 25.
FOR WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WITH DRY AND CONTINUED COLD
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
A LARGE AREA OF MVFR CLOUD SHIELD OVER MOST OF MANITOBA AND MOST OF
NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHEAST
AND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUDS WAS OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT KISN/KMOT TO HAVE MVFR CIGS UNTIL AROUND
16Z-18Z...THEN VFR CONDITIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
MOVE OVER KDIK/KBIS/KJMS AND THESE TAF SITES REMAIN MVFR UNTIL
AROUND 00Z. VFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS BECOMING SOUTH.
SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER KDIK AFT 06Z WITH CLOUDS FORMING ON THE
BOUNDARY OF THE WARM ADVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
954 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THIS MORNING WITH
THE REGION FIRMLY IN THE GRIP OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH. 12Z SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER
EXTENDING FROM SURFACE TO NEAR 700 MB OR 10,000 FEET FROM DTX TO
PIT. THIS LAYER IS RATHER MOIST AS WELL. THE DEEP WELL MIXED LAYER
IS ALLOWING THE DEEPER LAKE EFFECT CONVECTION FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
TO PROGRESS WELL INLAND AND HELP DEEPEN THE MIXED LAYER OVER LAKE
ERIE. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -25C ARE EVIDENT ON THE IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO GOOD DENDRITE SNOWFLAKE GROW SHOULD OCCUR THIS
MORNING WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. THE LAKE EFFECT IS NEARLY
ALL SNOW THIS MORNING EVEN AT THE ERIE LAKE SHORE DESPITE A WARM
LAKE OF 10-15C. THIS MILD LAKE TEMPERATURE WITH 500 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -32C HAS CREATED A SURFACE TO 500 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OVER
40C WHICH IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.
THE HRRR IS INDICATING A 4-6 INCH ACCUMULATION IN GAGA COUNTY
THROUGH 17Z WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
CURRENT PLACEMENT OF LES BANDS. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING. DIURNAL WARMING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
MAKE THE LES CONVECTION MORE CELLULAR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN. ALTHOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
EXAMINE THIS MORE CLOSELY. HAVE LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE SNOW
BELT A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT IN NE
OHIO/NW PA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THIS EVENING AWAY FROM THE
LAKESHORE. DRIER AIR WILL INTRUDE FROM THE WEST WITH THE FLOW
STARTING TO BACK AND SHIFTING THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SLUSH. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR A CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON DIRECTED TOWARDS NW PA. IF THIS
HAPPENS WE COULD SEE SOME HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS BUT WILL CARRY 1 TO
3 INCHES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT
THE LAKESHORE AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE POSSIBLE AS
YOU GET CLOSER TO CENTRAL OHIO.
THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING
MORE CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. KEPT
POPS PRETTY HIGH GIVEN THE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE BUT
WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAST MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AS RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. WE GET A
BRIEF SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 40S AGAIN
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MORE MINOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. MONDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE NEW MODELS ARE SLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS NEXT TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH
OF TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH RAIN MOVING IN LATE TUESDAY AND
CONTINUING WEDNESDAY. HAVE FINED TUNED THE PRECIP CHANCES A
LITTLE. BIGGEST CHANGE IS TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND TO BUMP THEM UP FOR WEDNESDAY. HAVE
ALSO BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES AS THERE SHOULD BE A
GOOD PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA
THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE BAND WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF
KCLE SO WILL TRY FOR A DRY FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO KYNG SHORTLY AND ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT KERI IN A BIT. TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY LATE MORNING TO CHANGE ALL OF THE PRECIP
BACK TO RAIN. CIGS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE VFR BUT SOME PATCHES
OF MVFR ARE LIKELY. SOME MVFR CLOUDS HAVE MADE IT TO KTOL FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SHOULD GO AWAY IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH SKIES LIKELY BECOMING SCT OR SKC IN THE WEST. WESTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NE OH/NW PA AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE EAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WILL LET THE
SMALL CRAFT GO IN THE WESTERN BASIN AS PLANNED. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT INCREASING SPEEDS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BUT NO GALE
HEADLINES NEEDED AS THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HAVE A HARD TIME
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY
BUT BY MONDAY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL HAPPEN IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
PLAINS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ011-012-014-022-023-089.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
OHZ013.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
135 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON NORTHWEST WINDS.
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OF
CANADIAN ORIGIN WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED TO ALL BUT A COUPLE VERY LIGHT
RETURNS IN THE FAR NORTH. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC STILL SHOWS
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY STREAMING OFF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN. LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT
THIS ACTIVITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO OHIO...BUT OPTED TO MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS /RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW/ ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT. OTHER MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER
AND ITS EFFECTS ON LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE FREEZE WARNING.
EARLIER THIS EVENING CLOUDS HAD SCATTERED OUT NICELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WHICH ALLOWED TEMPS TO QUICKLY DROP INTO THE MID 30S
IN THE CLEAR SLOTS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK STREAMING IN FROM INDIANA AND TEMPS HAVE JUMPED UP A
DEGREE OR TWO WHERE THESE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN. THE 00Z NAM AND
01Z RAP SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND
WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT BUT FEEL THAT CURRENT WEAK COLD
ADVECTION REGIME MAY STILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
OUR WEATHER. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY OFF THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO...A S/W
PASSING THRU THE MEAN TROF MAY LEAD TO SHOWERS ACRS THE SRN ZONES.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR 40S SOUTH.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST...AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS HIGH SHOULD ALLOW
SOME CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT. THIS
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S...WITH A HARD
FREEZE LIKELY ACRS ALL COUNTIES.
THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SE BECOMING CENTERED OVER TN ON FRIDAY...
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS. AFTER A
COLD START TO THE DAY...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
40S.
THE COLD HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL MEAN INCREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS BUT PROBABLY NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DRY
WEATHER ON MONDAY EVEN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
WEATHER WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL FORM TO THE WEST AND THEN PROPAGATE INTO THE ILN AREA. THIS
WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MEANDERS
OVER THE REGION.
THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. READINGS MAY
RISE CLOSE TO NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S BY TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
OCCURS NEAR THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES BY 07Z. SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT
TIME...MAINLY AT KLUK. OTHERWISE...VFR DECK AROUND 5 TO 8 KFT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER MIDDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES. KCMH/KLCK MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
KEEP VFR CIGS AND AVOID SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KCMH/KLCK. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE DURING THE EVENING. SKIES
MAY STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING AS A LARGE
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...KURZ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...LATTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
753 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH FAIR...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD SET UP FROM THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A
FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO JUST
THE NRN TIER COUNTIES ATTM.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND JUST A SPRINKLE OR TWO WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS...ALONG WITH THE MIDDLE
AND WEST BRANCH PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 81
IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
BUFKIT RUC AND NAM SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS VERTICAL MIXING STAYS TOPPED OUT BETWEEN 4-5 KFT
AGL.
TEMPS ARE AT THEIR FCST MAXES IN THE L40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY
PLATEAU...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND
SUSQ VALLEY. THE COOL SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LAURELS WHERE
THICKER CLOUDS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY AND KEPT TEMPS IN THE 30S.
SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHTENING
UP AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. THE
LAST VESTIGES OF THE GROWING SEASON WILL BE ENDED TONIGHT/EARLY SAT
ACROSS THE LOWER WITH WIDESPREAD 28-32F MINS EXPECTED. TEMPS ACROSS
THE NRN AND WESTERN MTNS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A VIGOROUS SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GLAKES AND SERN CANADA SAT/SAT NIGHT.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A TIGHT LLVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO ITS SOUTH /ACROSS OUR FCST AREA/.
DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TO CREATE INCREASING SW
WINDS...SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS ACROSS
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU /AND AROUND 25 KTS IN THE SE/.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODERATE BY 8-10F IN MANY LOCATIONS...THEY WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 3-5F BELOW NORMAL.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MSTLY SUNNY SKIES HANGING ON FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY IN THE
GREATER HARRISBURG...YORK... LANCASTER AREAS.
SOME LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT LK EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT FOR LATE SAT/SAT
NIGHT ACROSS THE NW MTNS. SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A LATE
NIGHT FLURRY WILL SLIDE SE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT SAT NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE COMMON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL WILL TAPER OFF
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND COOL...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL.
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO TURN A BIT UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK...AS
MOISTURE RETURNS ON THE BACK-SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND THE 12Z GFS/GEFS BRING A SHOT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
TUES NIGHT/WED...WHILE THE NEW 12Z ECMWF RUN KEEPS US MAINLY DRY
THRU MIDWEEK.
TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WET WEATHER BACK TO THE REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DISCREPANCY...PUT
LOW CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THE MID-LATE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
COOLER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIVERGENT FLOW CONTINUES AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST...EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF AND DISSIPATING ANY SHOWERS
OVER THE NW MTNS. EXPECT SKIES TO LIFT...THOUGH A PERSISTENT MID
DECK WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ALL SITES HAVE DECOUPLED AND WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION TOMORROW AS A MAINLY DRY FRONT PROPAGATES INTO THE
REGION LATE TOMORROW MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS TO RETURN BETWEEN
09-14Z TOMORROW MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OF 15 TO 25KTS WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 35KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
THE STRONG FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LLWS TO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z TO
16Z...MAINLY AT BFD THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE AT JST.
MAINLY VFR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE DAYTIME...WITH LATE
DAY MVFR CIGS IN THE NW MTNS...MAINLY AFTER 22Z. THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DECOUPLING
AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT/SUN...AREAS OF LOW CIGS/SHRASN POSS WRN MTNS. OTHERWISE
VFR.
MON-TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED...MAINLY VFR...BUT AREAS OF -SHRA WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ036-057-
059-063>066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...EVANEGO
AVIATION...CERU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE ONSET OF HIGH CEILINGS AT KCKV
AND KBNA. KCSV WILL BE SEEING THE CLOUD COVER IN FIRST COUPLE
HOURS OF TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL DECREASE OVER NEXT 6 HOURS BUT
SHOULD STAY ABOVE MVFR HEIGHTS. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013/
UPDATE...
SEVERAL ISSUES WITH FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER...FREEZE WARNING ON THE PLATEAU...AND
EVEN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED RAPIDLY THIS
EVENING WITH MUCH OF THE CWA EAST OF I-65 OUTSIDE OF THE URBAN
NASHVILLE METRO ALREADY IN THE MID 30S PER SURFACE OBS.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
NOW ENTERING THE CWA AND SPREADING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...AND
ONCE CLOUDS COVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BASED ON THIS
REASONING...WILL NOT EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE
MORE COUNTIES ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO DO SO...BUT DID BUMP UP
TIMING OF FREEZE WARNING START TO 06Z. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND
OTHER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SPREADING ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR. HRRR AND WRF MODELS INDICATE THIS
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT...BUT A STRAY
FLURRY IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU. CHANCE IS TOO REMOTE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A CHANCE TO LOOK AT TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS...LATEST MAV/MET MOS STILL INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. TIME HEIGHT
MOISTURE/OMEGA FIELDS SHOW THAT CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CIRRUS COULD BE A FACTOR ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO INHERITED FREEZE WATCH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE...
IR SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BKN DECK OF 10KFT
CEILINGS ON THE APPROACH FROM THE NW. BELIEVE THIS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FIRST 12 HOURS OF TAF PERIOD FOR KCKV AND KBNA. CEILINGS
SHOULD DROP BY MID MORNING AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AND
MOISTEN THE COLUMN. COULD BE NEAR MVFR CEILINGS BY AROUND 14Z BUT
KEPT OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST ABOVE FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED OCT 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NOW BUILDING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
FROM THE WEST, WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD COVERING THE NE HALF OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE A STRONG NW BREEZE MOST
OF THE DAY, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN
NOW, SO WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH. EXPECT MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE 850 MB TROUGH. DESPITE THIS, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, HENCE
THE EARLIER FREEZE WARNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL GRADUALLY WORK
ITS WAY EASTWARD AS THE MID STATE REMAINS UNDER A COLD AIR MASS.
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE WEEKEND,
FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH RETURN FLOW PICKING UP ON SATURDAY
AND BRINGING WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WILL LIKELY HIT THE LOWERS 70`S AHEAD OF THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM,
WHICH THE ECMWF BRINGS THROUGH ON THURSDAY AND THE GFS ON FRIDAY.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-
066-078>080.
&&
$$
TB12
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GREEN BAY WI
930 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION AND ADDED SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK. SYWW3 /G32KT/
AND FPTM4 /G39KT/ PROBABLY PROVIDE ABOUT THE BEST ESTIMATES OF
WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE SHORE
OF THE BAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE THE GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX.
TEMPS CONTG TO CREEP UPWARD THIS EVENING AT MOST SITES...AND COLD
AIR WL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO RETURN THAN WHAT PREV FCST
HAD GOING. WL ADJUST TEMPS GRIDS FOR TNGT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE WL BE OUT ASAP.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE GULF COAST WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS
DIVING SE ACROSS CENTRAL MANITOBA. LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL MAKE A RUN AT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS
THE STATE AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE RAMPING UP...WITH
SOME GUSTS NOW REACHING INTO THE 20 KT RANGE. WITH PLENTY OF DRY
AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ON REGIONAL SOUNDINGS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY
PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A STRENGTHENING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TO SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY MORNING. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP
LOOK TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT...BUT SOUNDINGS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOW A DEEP DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. FORCING IS
EXCELLENT AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT...SO CANNOT RULE OUT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA A LITTLE
LATER...BUT SHOULD LARGELY BE A DRY PASSAGE WITH SUCH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERHEAD BY THIS TIME. COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...DROPPING 850MB TEMPS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TO -5 TO -6C WHICH IS PLENTY COLD FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE A LITTLE TOO WESTERLY FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT DO START TO VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY LATE.
WILL KEEP ANY ACCUMS UNDER A HALF INCH.
THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND PEAK THIS EVENING.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS PORTRAY 925-900MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 50-55
KTS THIS EVENING...BUT NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES RATHER LOW FOR THESE WINDS TO REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE
LAND. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DOOR PENINSULA HOWEVER. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH OF AN OVER-WATER TRAJECTORY
ACROSS THE BAY TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY.
1000-900MB DELTA T/S ARE 10C WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR DECENT MIXING
TO OCCUR OVER THE BAY. SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR 45-50 MPH
GUSTS...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH...WILL HOIST
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DOOR FOR 00-09Z. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BAY
SHORE AND THE HIGHER BLUFFS HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06-09Z...BUT SOME GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO THE
EAST...AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO COLD ADVECT THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW...THERMAL TROUGHING...AND WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SHOULD SEE A PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
MID 30S WHICH WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL SHOW UNDER AN INCH IN
THE FORECAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE
NORTH WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BACKDOOR IT/S WAY ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
QUITE DRY. IT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS
AFTER THAT WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS BRINGS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTHEAST ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FRUITLESS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
POTENT BUT MOISTURE STARVED WX SYSTEM CROSSING THE RGN. LLWS WL
CONT PAST MIDNIGHT...THEN START TO ABATE AS WINDS TURN MORE WLY AND
CAA BEGINS. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME MVFR CIGS COULD PUSH INTO THE N
LATE TNGT AND FOR SAT MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI OCT 25 2013
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BY FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY. THE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND
03-06Z/SAT...AS 925-900 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN TO 50-55 KTS. STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE OCCURRING NE OF THE RGN AROUND THIS
TIME...AND DECENT OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...DESPITE
STG WAA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE BAY...DUE TO
FUNNELING OF SW WINDS...AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORELINE OF DOOR COUNTY. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL DECREASE TO 30-40 KTS
LATER IN THE NIGHT...AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES SHOULD KEEP GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS GOING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA.
SUSPECT THAT THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN BAY AND DEATHS DOOR
AREA.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ022.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........SKOWRONSKI
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......SKOWRONSKI
MARINE.........MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
259 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
.TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
BROKEN STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS AREA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
SOME SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES MAY SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING. MORE ORGANIZED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
ARE WITHIN COLD 500MB TEMPERATURE AREA OF AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO CELSIUS. THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES INTO EARLY
EVENING IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER...THOUGH MOST SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA.
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS AND LOWS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HRRR MODEL SHOWING CURRENT CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE
AREA MIXING OUT DURING THE EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW LOWS TO DROP QUITE A BIT...AS WINDS WEAKEN
LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP YESTERDAY RESULTED
IN CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT. TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...WENT WITH A COMPROMISE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND KEPT
SOME CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WERE KEPT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE COULD DROP LOWER IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
SOME STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON
FRIDAY...MORE SO IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...BECOMING GUSTY BY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A SHARP TROF/COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WE/D BE
NEAR WIND ADVISORY LEVELS IF IT WAS OCCURRING DURING THE DAYTIME.
BUT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION FRIDAY NIGHT TO
LIMIT MIXING OF THE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED AND
FOR THE MOST PART...THE TROF/FRONT SHOULD COME THROUGH DRY. THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
DECENT SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PUT IN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS CLOUDY...BREEZY AND COLD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT QUIET BUT STILL CHILLY...HIGHS STILL IN
THE 40S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH DELTA T/S
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN APPROACHING 15C COULD RESULT IN SOME LAKE
EFFECT SPRINKLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT INCREASES HEADING INTO THIS PERIOD. THE COLD
FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LAY OUT A STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BACK WEST THROUGH IOWA AND
NEBRASKA. CYCLOGENESIS KICKS IN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
OUR AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE DISAGREEING ON THE TIMING OF THE
INITIAL PRECIP ARRIVAL WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST OF THE THREE. THE
INITIAL RAIN COULD ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRENDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW
THAT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE DRY
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN...BUT
WE/LL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THEN A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ROLL THROUGH SOMETIME
DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ALL OF THIS WILL
BE RAIN...NO SNOW MIXING IN AS WELL AS NO THUNDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE FIRST ROUND ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 1/4
INCH OF RAIN. OVERALL...A RATHER UNSETTLE PERIOD OF WEATHER NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF
SITES. OUTSIDE SHOT AT MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAFS
DUE TO SPORADIC NATURE. SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING AS WELL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...THEN WILL BACK
WEST AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.
TRICKY CLOUD FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS MAY
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS LINGERED LAST NIGHT WITH A
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP. FOR NOW...KEPT SCATTERED WORDING FOR LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CEILINGS WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS NEAR AND OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN
WATERS...ARE ALSO EXPECTED. WILL NOT ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...AS HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
GALE WATCH CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH 35 KNOT WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
POSSIBLY MIXING DOWNWARD. COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IF 40 PLUS
KNOT WINDS FROM 1000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME...SO HIGH WAVES
SHOULD BE OVER THE OPEN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SHOULD LINGER LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS...WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DAVIS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHILE
SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LIKE
YESTERDAY...DIURNAL CU FILLED IN THE HOLES IN THE BROKEN CLOUD
DECK...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
TO IMPACT NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE VISIBILITIES SPORADICALLY
FALL TO A HALF MILE. NO REPORTS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS...AND
WEBCAMS ONLY SHOW WET ROADWAYS. EVEN FARTHER WEST...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES EAST AND THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IMPACTS AND CLOUD TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DEPART THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT...WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AT THE SAME
TIME. UNTIL THIS RIDGE AXIS ARRIVES...COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WHICH WILL KEEP SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIND TRAJECTORIES
ARE MORE WESTERLY THAN LAST NIGHT...SO ACCUMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
UNDER AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM TO ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION WHICH SHOULD KEEP SKIES ON THE BKN TO OVC SIDE
UNTIL LATE. SOME HOLES ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...MORE LIKELY OVER
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS. LOW TEMPS REMAIN
DIFFICULT...DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER. WHERE HOLES
FORM...TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE COLDER THAN THE SURROUNDING AREAS.
WILL RAISE MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.
THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE MORNING. AS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...ANY LINGERING
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE WAY OUT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS FROM THE
WEST. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING DESPITE
THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHEAST
MOVING SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN
A BIT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DECENT MIXING. HIGHS WILL BE
RANGING THROUGH THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED
AND HOLD TEMPERATURES UP FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN LATELY.
IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD NORMALLY MAKE FOR A NICE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE AIR IS VERY DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY
.3 TO .5 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT. SO ONLY SCATTERED OR ISOLATED
SHOWERS EXPECTED.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BUT THE AIR IS NOT AS
COLD BEHIND IT AS THE LAST COUPLE OF FRONTS. IN ADDITION 925 AND
850MB WINDS ARE ONLY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW IN THE NORTH WOODS
SNOWBELT REGION AS A RESULT. MAINLY DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE GFS BRINGS A SURFACE LOW FROM THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON TO CHICAGO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WOULD
BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE
THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER INVERTED TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THAT
WOULD BRING ONLY LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL
INTENSITY OF THE BANDS SHOULD WANE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OCCASIONAL
IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORE INTENSE BANDS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
SHOULD RISE TO VFR STATUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH HOPE FOR
THE BKN CONDITIONS TO CLEAR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING LLWS INTO
THE REGION BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2013
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUICKLY INCREASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GALES POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
131 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE TN VALLEY IS ATTEMPTING
TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
SRN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BACKING WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE ALLOWED THE ISOLD SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO
INCREASE NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS HAVING TROUBLE EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN DACKS. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SCATTERED PCPN INT THE WRN DACKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH THE BACKING FLOW TO THE
W/SW.
THE BEST CHC OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MAINLY NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE CONTINUED A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
TEMP TRENDS READJUSTED AGAIN BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD...BUT MODERATED A BIT
BY THE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S
TO M30S. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS DAY BREAK INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK WITH THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. STRATO AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
THANKS IN PART TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN CHANNELING
WILL BE FAVORED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT NEAR 50 IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...PROMOTING CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
AIDED BY MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO UPPER 20S IN
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIENT TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON THE ELEVATION. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND CATSKILLS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GUSTY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY AROUND 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTS IN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOW 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
LOW 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO WIN BACK CONTROL OF THE
REGION AT MID-WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY RESULTING FROM THIS WEAK
PATTERN WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY ON.
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HANGING AROUND OUR
FORECAST AREA TO ASSIST WITH THIS.
A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY
WILL HEAD UP TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT IT TOO WILL STRUGGLE TO
SURVIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE ONLY RELUCTANTLY GIVES WAY BY SLIDING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTTOM LINE...
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX DURING THE EVENING
AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. FRIDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE MID 60S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MILDER AS A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES. NIGHTTIME LOWS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE LAST OF THESE NIGHTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BECOMING PEDOMINANT. THE CEILING AROUND KPSF SHOULD HOVER
AROUND 3000 FEET THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. THE MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER LIKE WAVE. SOME SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT VCSH IN ANY OF THE
TAFS. CEILINGS WILL BE INDICATED AS LOW VFR IN THE 5000 FOOT
RANGE...THOUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 KT OR LESS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN 5-12 KTS TOWARDS DAY
BREAK...THEN STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AT
KALB IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
6-12 KT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT EACH
NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL ALSO
INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL RIVER
AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER. ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE TN VALLEY IS ATTEMPTING
TO RIDGE IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. SOME LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
SRN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE BACKING WINDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE ALLOWED THE ISOLD SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS TO
INCREASE NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK
VALLEY... AND A LAKE EFFECT BAND IS HAVING TROUBLE EXTENDING
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE WRN DACKS. THE LATEST 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SCATTERED PCPN INT THE WRN DACKS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS BAND LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH THE BACKING FLOW TO THE
W/SW.
THE BEST CHC OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MAINLY NRN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. WE CONTINUED A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.
TEMP TRENDS READJUSTED AGAIN BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE PAST FEW
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD...BUT MODERATED A BIT
BY THE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U20S
TO M30S. THE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND WILL BE LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY SOUTHWARD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL NY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE TOWARDS DAY BREAK INTO EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BE DIVING QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL DYNAMICS LOOK WEAK WITH THIS MOISTURE-STARVED
SYSTEM...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. STRATO AND ALTOCUMULUS WILL ALSO QUICKLY
INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
THANKS IN PART TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH
ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHERE TERRAIN CHANNELING
WILL BE FAVORED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE DUE
TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT NEAR 50 IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND STRUGGLING TO REACH THE UPPER 30S IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...PROMOTING CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
AIDED BY MOIST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO UPPER 20S IN
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ORIENT TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON THE ELEVATION. THESE SHOWERS
WILL PRIMARILY BE TIED TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR DURING THE
DAY ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND CATSKILLS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE GUSTY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY AROUND 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTS IN WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...GENERALLY REACHING THE LOW 50S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
LOW 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND IN CLOUD
COVER AND WINDS. WITH THE DECREASING CLOUDS...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL AGAIN DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL WEAKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO WIN BACK CONTROL OF THE
REGION AT MID-WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY RESULTING FROM THIS WEAK
PATTERN WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY ON.
THE WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HANGING AROUND OUR
FORECAST AREA TO ASSIST WITH THIS.
A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION ON THURSDAY
WILL HEAD UP TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT IT TOO WILL STRUGGLE TO
SURVIVE AS HIGH PRESSURE ONLY RELUCTANTLY GIVES WAY BY SLIDING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTTOM LINE...
LOTS OF CLOUDS...AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR A MIX DURING THE EVENING
AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS. FRIDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN NORMAL WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN.
TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE HIGH
PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE MID 60S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY OF NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MILDER AS A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ENSUES. NIGHTTIME LOWS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE LAST OF THESE NIGHTS. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE ABOUT
10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
STRATOCUMULUS DIMINISHING EARLY ON...BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER LIKE WAVE.
W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT AT 4 KTS
OR LESS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5-12 KTS TOWARDS DAY BREAK...THEN STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY AT KALB IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY PM.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL VARY BETWEEN 40 AND 60 PERCENT DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND RECOVER TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT EACH
NIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES WILL ALSO
INHIBIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL RIVER
AND STREAM LEVELS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER. ONLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND FROM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IRL/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES. SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO SW NE/NW KS ON POSITIVE SIDE OF PV HEIGHT ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN. TIGHT GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO SW NE/NW
KS NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VAD WINDS INDICATE 30-35 KT LLJ
IN PLACE OVER KGLD MATCHING RAP BL AND H85 WINDS. RADAR INDICATES
LIGHT RETURNS (LIKELY VIRGA) TRANSITIONING SOUTH AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING SOUTH AND 30-35KT LLJ IN PLACE WE COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY
MIDDAY...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY SHOW A DECREASING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 15Z. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWING SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. RESULT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MILD SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO 70S ACROSS CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL EXPECTED AS
UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF PAC NW AND DEEPENS OVER THE SW CONUS...AND
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STALLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA...HOWEVER PICTURE REMAINS VERY
SIMILAR. CONSIDERING SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE ADVERTISED BY ALL
MODELS...THIS SHOULD BE A DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIP EVENT STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TEMP PROFILES BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF I WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID...WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE CWA LATE MON
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS HOVER AROUND 32F. WHILE A LIGHT GLAZE
COULDNT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED SURFACES FOR A FEW HOURS IN PARTS
OF YUMA COUNTY LATE MON NIGHT...THIS PROBABLY WONT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY CONSIDERING WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPS AND BRIEF/LIGHT NATURE
OF THE FREEZING PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TRACK
NORTHWARD. THIS HAS NECESSITATED AN ADJUSTMENT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO ALMOST ALL LIQUID PHASE. USING GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY REPRESENT A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND CHARACTER
OF THE TROUGH...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST SUPPORTIVE
OF A STRATUS...FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE SCENARIO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A MOIST EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED IN DEPTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND POPS REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINAL FOR AT
LEAST A MIX OF RAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NEW
ECMWF AND THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY FRIDAY AND
NOTEWORTHY HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA. IF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS CONSISTENCY...THIS MAY REQUIRE A CONSIDERABLE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR TAFS VALID 06Z SAT - 06Z SUN)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT FRI OCT 25 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT ONLY IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BECOMING NORTHWEST
AS A SURFACE TROUGH...ORIENTED NE-SW...PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BEHIND THE TROUGH
AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK OF THE HIGH.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...ALW/DLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CHALLENGE/CONCERN ITEMS. THE SHORT TERM
FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPERATURES WHILE MEDIUM/LONGER TERM EMPHASIS
SHIFTS TOWARD PRECIPITATION...WHEN TO INCLUDE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES AND WHETHER OR NOT SOMETHING OTHER THAN LIQUID
WILL FALL.
WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY WORKING THRU INTO EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL
PROVIDE BRISK NNW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE MIXING...I.E. NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND NW
WINDS...PLUS A THE START IN THE UPPER 30S OR WARMER...COULD ALLOW
A BIT OF A SUPER OFF SURFACE AT MAX HTG SO WOULD SUSPECT HIGHS
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH WARMER MET GUIDANCE BASED ON RAP AND OTHER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECAST. A LATE
EVENING LOW STILL PROBABLY IN STORE FOR REGION TONIGHT AS TEMPS
STEADY LATE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. THEN SW WINDS AND EVEN WARMER
H85 TEMPS ON SUNDAY...COMPARED TO FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH A
CATEGORY OR MORE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...AND BOOSTED TOWARD WARMER
MET READINGS. WEAK WIND SHIFT ENTERING NRN ZONES BY LATE AFTN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HIGHS BUT COOLER AIR PUSHING IN
BEHIND IT LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL. THIS LEADS US TO...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THAT THEN BEGIN INCREASING NEXT WEEK. MAIN
ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE BECAUSE COOLER
AIR BELOW H85 WILL SET UP A FAIRLY STEEP INVERSION ABOVE 925-900
MB. NERLY SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
THICKEN UP BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...WHICH THEY COULD ACROSS SRN AND
WRN ZONES. BUT WITH TEMPS OFF SURFACE YET FAIRLY MILD WAS
RELUCTANT TO GO TOO MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE BUT OVC SKIES BY MIDDAY
WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR EVEN MORE BELOW
EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR SERN ZONES WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOWEST.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTN SRN AND WRN ZONES AT LEAST...POSSIBLY
FARTHER NNE...BUT LIMITED CHCS TO THOSE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN OR EVEN AGREEABLE AS TO WHEN OR
IF A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN MON NIGHT-WED
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE+INTENSITIES...I.E. PRECIP BECOMING
PATCHY VRY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLY...MAY OCCUR TUE AFTN INTO TUE
NGT. THIS WOULD BE BEHIND INITIAL WARM CONVEYER BELT DRIVEN PRECIP
MON NGT AND BEFORE NEXT ROUND OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP
AND GENEROUS H85 DWPTS SPREAD NORTH BY WED MORNING. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BY 12Z TUE INDICATED A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX NORTH WHILE GFS WAS
SHAKINGLY STICKING TO GENERALLY ALL LIQUID NRN ZONES. QUICK LOOK
AT 00Z ECMWF SHOWED THAT MODEL CONTINUING TO WARM H85 TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES... ALSO GENERALLY
SUPPORTING KEEPING PRECIP ALL LIQUID ALL ZONES FOR NOW. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL SOME RISK OF A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FAR NWRN
ZONES FOR A PERIOD MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...IF SURFACE TEMPS COULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING...BUT REALLY NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SNOW FOR OUR
FA EXCEPT PER NAM POSSIBLY NEAR SD BORDER.
AS SYSTEM APPROACHES TUE-WED PERIODS...TEMPS ABOVE SURFACE
CONTINUE MODERATING ELIMINATING ANY MIXED PRECIP RISK THAT MAY
OCCUR FAR N AS SURFACE GRUDGINGLY INCREASE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING INTO SRN ZONES AT LEAST COULD ALLOW A FEW TSTMS BY WED
AM...AND THESE MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
TRENDS PERSIST. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. TRIED TO TIGHTEN THEM UP A LITTLE WED
BY RAISING A FEW LOWS TUE NGT...AND SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONTINUITY SUGGESTS.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN DECREASING THU NIGHT/FRI
BUT CAN/T REMOVE MOST AREAS ENTIRELY AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PERSISTS. ALTHOUGH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTED A DRY
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY BY MORNING. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DIURNALLY...WITH
GUSTS SLACKENING AND SPEEDS DECREASING AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS
WILL BACK FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNSET.
MAYES
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
901 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY COOL
AND CLOUDY SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND BREEZIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SEEM POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
...FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT...
.EVENING UPDATE...NORTH TO EVEN SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS ALLOWED CLOUDS TO BREAK UP ALONG THE NORTH OREGON COAST AND LOWER
COLUMBIA RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST
IN PART BEING DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND
NOSING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
IN GENERAL...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS PRUDENT OVERNIGHT...AND
LARGELY STUCK WITH THAT FORECAST IDEA. AREAS WITH MIST AND FOG
CURRENTLY...LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...A STRATUS DECK NEAR 1 TO 2KFT
WILL LIKELY PERSIST FURTHER NORTH OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. IN ADDITION...A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE WAS CUT
FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE COAST AND THE LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER WHERE
THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS NEARLY SATURATED FOR
NEARLY 2KFT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY...AND
LIGHT UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...DRIZZLE
WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY SOUTH OF SALEM.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR DRIZZLE WOULD SEEM TO BE AROUND EUGENE...FERN
RIDGE RESERVOIR AND THE HILLS NORTH OF CORVALLIS.
BECAUSE SKIES HAVE CLEARED NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER MOUTH AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN A COUPLE DEGREES...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
DROPPED A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. CONVERSELY...LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
NUDGED UP A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING DRASTICALLY FROM THEIR
CURRENT LEVELS.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE RUC IS FAIRLY ADAMANT THAT 975MB
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT VALUES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WOULD
SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE STRATUS AROUND 1-2KFT WOULD
DISSIPATE...SOMEWHAT SIMILARLY TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR OVER
COLUMBIA...COWLITZ AND CLARK COUNTIES IN THE LAST TWO HOURS. AT THIS
POINT...I THINK THE RUC IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE STRATUS DECK
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE PUGET SOUND AND MIXING POTENTIAL DOES NOT
SEEM TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. IN THE OFF CHANCE THE STRATUS DECK
1-2KFT LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVERNIGHT...I THINK THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAINED DECOUPLED ENOUGH THAT THE FOG AND MISTY CONDITIONS AT
SALEM...CORVALLIS AND EUGENE WILL LIKELY PERSIST...AND PERHAPS THESE
COULD EXPAND NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE...THE COOL DOWN AND BREEZY NORTH AND EAST WINDS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY LOOK ON TRACK. IT SEEMS MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAND A GOOD
CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING THEIR FIRST SOLID FREEZE OF THE SEASON MONDAY
NIGHT. /NEUMAN
.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STRENGTHENS...RESULTING IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...AND OFFSHORE GRADIENTS RELAX. THIS WILL BE
ADDRESSED IN MORE DETAIL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE...BUT EXPECT MORE VALLEY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS TUE NIGHT WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL SURFACE GRADIENTS. IT ALSO
APPEARS THE LONG STRETCH OF PLEASANT FALL WEATHER COMES TO AND END
AROUND HALLOWEEN. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL
THOUGH SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER AIR PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING IN A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON AT TIMES. A COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS A PAIR OF TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC NEAR JAPAN THAT
ARE ABOUT TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. MODELS TEND TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY DEALING WITH TYPHOONS...TYPICALLY RESULTING IN CHAOTIC
SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...THE FAVORED TREND IS FOR SYSTEMS TO BE WETTER
THAN MODELS INDICATE. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST POPS UP A SMALL
AMOUNT FOR LATER NEXT WEEK BUTEXPECT MORE ADJUSTMENTS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WEISHAAR
&&
.AVIATION...HAVE SEEN MIXED SIGNALS OUT OF THE LAST COUPLE SETS OF
MODEL RUNS WITH REGARDS TO FOG/STRATUS. THE GFS IS RUNNING
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER ACROSS THE LOW LEVELS WHILE THE NAM IS HOLDING
ON TO FAR MORE MOISTURE. SATELLITE IS SHOWING A NON-TRIVIAL AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR TRYING TO INTRUDE THE STRATUS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BUT
AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW DECK IS WELL ENTRENCHED INTO THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. WILL FOLLOW THE NAM DEPICTION HEADING INTO THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE WITH THE LIFR DECK OR VLIFR FOG IN PLACE FOR THE
INTERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 18 TO 20Z AS A FIRST GUESS THOUGH NEED TO
SAY CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE. TOPS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW...PERHAPS 1800 TO 2000 FT MSL.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...A FINGER OF DRY AIR IS PUSHING SOUTH JUST
WEST OF THE FIELD BUT DONE EXPECT IT TO LAST VERY LONG. EXPECT IFR
CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /JBONK
&&
.MARINE...00Z NAM HAS SPED UP THE ONSET OF SMALL CRAFT GUSTS A BIT
AND PUSHED THE WIND A BIT FURTHER NORTH. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS WITH THE EVENING PACKAGE BUT KEEP IT LIMITED TO
THE CENTRAL OUTER WATERS AND RUN IT THROUGH 11 AM SUNDAY FOR NOW.
THERE WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THAT EXCEED 21 KTS
BUT THE AREA IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE ADVISORY. THE INNER
WATERS SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE SHELTERED FROM THE WINDS GIVEN AN
EVER SO SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE DIRECTION. SEAS NOT SEEING MUCH OF A
RESPONSE THROUGH WILL BE LARGELY WIND DRIVEN FOR THE CENTRAL
WATERS. 5...PERHAPS 6 FT TOTAL SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE INLAND PAC NW TIGHTENS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT IN GAPS OF COASTAL TERRAIN. SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD UP TO 7 FT
SUN INTO MON...EASING TO 5 FT BY TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER TOWARDS END OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH APPROACHING LOWS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...WILL
HAVE W SWELL BUILDING...REACHING NEAR 10 FT BY THU/FRI.
JBONK/ROCKEY/BURGESS
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM PDT
SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.PORTLAND.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
511 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES. SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO SW NE/NW KS ON POSITIVE SIDE OF PV HEIGHT ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN. TIGHT GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO SW NE/NW
KS NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VAD WINDS INDICATE 30-35 KT LLJ
IN PLACE OVER KGLD MATCHING RAP BL AND H85 WINDS. RADAR INDICATES
LIGHT RETURNS (LIKELY VIRGA) TRANSITIONING SOUTH AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING SOUTH AND 30-35KT LLJ IN PLACE WE COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY
MIDDAY...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY SHOW A DECREASING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 15Z. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWING SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. RESULT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MILD SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO 70S ACROSS CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL EXPECTED AS
UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF PAC NW AND DEEPENS OVER THE SW CONUS...AND
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STALLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA...HOWEVER PICTURE REMAINS VERY
SIMILAR. CONSIDERING SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE ADVERTISED BY ALL
MODELS...THIS SHOULD BE A DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIP EVENT STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TEMP PROFILES BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF I WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID...WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE CWA LATE MON
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS HOVER AROUND 32F. WHILE A LIGHT GLAZE
COULDNT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED SURFACES FOR A FEW HOURS IN PARTS
OF YUMA COUNTY LATE MON NIGHT...THIS PROBABLY WONT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY CONSIDERING WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPS AND BRIEF/LIGHT NATURE
OF THE FREEZING PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TRACK
NORTHWARD. THIS HAS NECESSITATED AN ADJUSTMENT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO ALMOST ALL LIQUID PHASE. USING GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY REPRESENT A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND CHARACTER
OF THE TROUGH...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST SUPPORTIVE
OF A STRATUS...FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE SCENARIO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A MOIST EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED IN DEPTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND POPS REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINAL FOR AT
LEAST A MIX OF RAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NEW
ECMWF AND THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY FRIDAY AND
NOTEWORTHY HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA. IF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS CONSISTENCY...THIS MAY REQUIRE A CONSIDERABLE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE WEATHER
AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN
WINDS LATE IN THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING THE WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...BRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
911 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK AND
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING AS
PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT OFF ONTARIO LIFTS NORTHWARD IN BACKING LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY WARM THIS MORNING AND BY THE TIME
LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ENTERS NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2KFT WILL LIKELY PICK UP SOME WET SNOW. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WORK IT`S WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ANY LIGHT PRECIPITION BEING
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. LATEST 12Z
GYX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT SOME DRY AIR IS PLACE...SO NOT OFF OF
THE ECHOES ON RADAR IMAGERY WILL BE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
REGION.
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD AND DEW POINT FORECASTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE
GRIDDED DATABASE.
PREV DISC...
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME WITH THE FROPA OVERNIGHT BUT
AGAIN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AS MOST MODELS ONLY
SHOWING TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.
WILL SEE CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S SOUTH EARLY BEFORE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHSN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
LATE N/MT ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ON
MONDAY WITH -SHRASN PSBL N/MT AREAS AND MAYBE INTO THE FOOTHILLS
WHILE ELSEWHERE REMAINS DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL BRING A
LITTLE MILDER AIR IN...ONLY TO SEE COLDER AIR FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
COLD NW FLOW AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR BUT COLD WX
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WX GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRCP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
SFC HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST ALLOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
EASTWARD TO THE E COAST. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHC FOR RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN VERY STRONG S SW FLOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WELL WITH
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR PUSHING UP THE E COAST AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME SHRA LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5...THEN USED A SUPER BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THRU
8.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT
MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL WITH SHRASN OVER THE N/MT AREAS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NGT DUE TO CFP ON MONDAY AND NW UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING FOR MID AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2AM TONIGHT. SCA`S ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NW FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS AND SEAS INTO MINIMAL SCA
LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS AND SEAS MAY AGAIN
REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
648 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NORTH
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS 14Z-16Z THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AFTER 23Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CHALLENGE/CONCERN ITEMS. THE SHORT TERM
FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPERATURES WHILE MEDIUM/LONGER TERM EMPHASIS
SHIFTS TOWARD PRECIPITATION...WHEN TO INCLUDE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES AND WHETHER OR NOT SOMETHING OTHER THAN LIQUID
WILL FALL.
WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY WORKING THRU INTO EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL
PROVIDE BRISK NNW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE MIXING...I.E. NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND NW
WINDS...PLUS A THE START IN THE UPPER 30S OR WARMER...COULD ALLOW
A BIT OF A SUPER OFF SURFACE AT MAX HTG SO WOULD SUSPECT HIGHS
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH WARMER MET GUIDANCE BASED ON RAP AND OTHER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECAST. A LATE
EVENING LOW STILL PROBABLY IN STORE FOR REGION TONIGHT AS TEMPS
STEADY LATE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. THEN SW WINDS AND EVEN WARMER
H85 TEMPS ON SUNDAY...COMPARED TO FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH A
CATEGORY OR MORE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...AND BOOSTED TOWARD WARMER
MET READINGS. WEAK WIND SHIFT ENTERING NRN ZONES BY LATE AFTN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HIGHS BUT COOLER AIR PUSHING IN
BEHIND IT LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL. THIS LEADS US TO...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THAT THEN BEGIN INCREASING NEXT WEEK. MAIN
ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE BECAUSE COOLER
AIR BELOW H85 WILL SET UP A FAIRLY STEEP INVERSION ABOVE 925-900
MB. NERLY SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
THICKEN UP BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...WHICH THEY COULD ACROSS SRN AND
WRN ZONES. BUT WITH TEMPS OFF SURFACE YET FAIRLY MILD WAS
RELUCTANT TO GO TOO MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE BUT OVC SKIES BY MIDDAY
WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR EVEN MORE BELOW
EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR SERN ZONES WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOWEST.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTN SRN AND WRN ZONES AT LEAST...POSSIBLY
FARTHER NNE...BUT LIMITED CHCS TO THOSE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN OR EVEN AGREEABLE AS TO WHEN OR
IF A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN MON NIGHT-WED
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE+INTENSITIES...I.E. PRECIP BECOMING
PATCHY VRY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLY...MAY OCCUR TUE AFTN INTO TUE
NGT. THIS WOULD BE BEHIND INITIAL WARM CONVEYER BELT DRIVEN PRECIP
MON NGT AND BEFORE NEXT ROUND OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP
AND GENEROUS H85 DWPTS SPREAD NORTH BY WED MORNING. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BY 12Z TUE INDICATED A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX NORTH WHILE GFS WAS
SHAKINGLY STICKING TO GENERALLY ALL LIQUID NRN ZONES. QUICK LOOK
AT 00Z ECMWF SHOWED THAT MODEL CONTINUING TO WARM H85 TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES... ALSO GENERALLY
SUPPORTING KEEPING PRECIP ALL LIQUID ALL ZONES FOR NOW. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL SOME RISK OF A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FAR NWRN
ZONES FOR A PERIOD MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...IF SURFACE TEMPS COULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING...BUT REALLY NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SNOW FOR OUR
FA EXCEPT PER NAM POSSIBLY NEAR SD BORDER.
AS SYSTEM APPROACHES TUE-WED PERIODS...TEMPS ABOVE SURFACE
CONTINUE MODERATING ELIMINATING ANY MIXED PRECIP RISK THAT MAY
OCCUR FAR N AS SURFACE GRUDGINGLY INCREASE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING INTO SRN ZONES AT LEAST COULD ALLOW A FEW TSTMS BY WED
AM...AND THESE MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
TRENDS PERSIST. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. TRIED TO TIGHTEN THEM UP A LITTLE WED
BY RAISING A FEW LOWS TUE NGT...AND SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONTINUITY SUGGESTS.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN DECREASING THU NIGHT/FRI
BUT CAN/T REMOVE MOST AREAS ENTIRELY AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PERSISTS. ALTHOUGH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTED A DRY
SATURDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1126 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES. SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO
BUILD SOUTH INTO SW NE/NW KS ON POSITIVE SIDE OF PV HEIGHT ANOMALY
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN. TIGHT GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO SW NE/NW
KS NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. VAD WINDS INDICATE 30-35 KT LLJ
IN PLACE OVER KGLD MATCHING RAP BL AND H85 WINDS. RADAR INDICATES
LIGHT RETURNS (LIKELY VIRGA) TRANSITIONING SOUTH AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
WITH SUBSIDENCE BUILDING SOUTH AND 30-35KT LLJ IN PLACE WE COULD SEE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
GRADIENT SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY
MIDDAY...SO WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY SHOW A DECREASING TREND THROUGH
THE DAY FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 15Z. FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SWING SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THERMAL TROUGH BEGINNING TO
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST. RESULT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPS
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.
FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MILD SUNDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN
PLACE...WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO 70S ACROSS CWA.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL EXPECTED AS
UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF PAC NW AND DEEPENS OVER THE SW CONUS...AND
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STALLING SOUTH OF OUR CWA.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BEHIND THIS FRONT
ALONG WITH TIMING OF STRONGEST CAA...HOWEVER PICTURE REMAINS VERY
SIMILAR. CONSIDERING SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE ADVERTISED BY ALL
MODELS...THIS SHOULD BE A DRIZZLE/LIGHT PRECIP EVENT STARTING
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON TEMP PROFILES BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF I WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO REMAIN LIQUID...WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE CWA LATE MON
NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPS HOVER AROUND 32F. WHILE A LIGHT GLAZE
COULDNT BE RULED OUT ON ELEVATED SURFACES FOR A FEW HOURS IN PARTS
OF YUMA COUNTY LATE MON NIGHT...THIS PROBABLY WONT NECESSITATE AN
ADVISORY CONSIDERING WARM GROUND/ROAD TEMPS AND BRIEF/LIGHT NATURE
OF THE FREEZING PRECIP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE TRACK
NORTHWARD. THIS HAS NECESSITATED AN ADJUSTMENT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
TO ALMOST ALL LIQUID PHASE. USING GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH
SHOULD GENERALLY REPRESENT A CONSENSUS OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DESPITE SOME RELATIVELY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND CHARACTER
OF THE TROUGH...SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE MOST SUPPORTIVE
OF A STRATUS...FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE SCENARIO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
OCCUR IN A MOIST EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED IN DEPTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND POPS REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT MAY BECOME MARGINAL FOR AT
LEAST A MIX OF RAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE NEW
ECMWF AND THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD TREND. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
QUICKLY BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY FRIDAY AND
NOTEWORTHY HEIGHT RISES OVER OUR AREA. IF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SHOWS CONSISTENCY...THIS MAY REQUIRE A CONSIDERABLE UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT SAT OCT 26 2013
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS FOR
KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT WIND
SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AROUND 3Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BRB
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
127 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND WILL CROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW ANY LIGHT PRECIPITION BEING
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. LATEST 12Z
GYX SOUNDING INDICATES THAT SOME DRY AIR IS PLACE...SO NOT ALL OFTHE
ECHOES ON RADAR IMAGERY WILL BE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MIXING WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS REGION.
MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CLOUD AND DEW POINT FORECASTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE
GRIDDED DATABASE.
PREV DISC...
WEAK OVER-RUNNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL OVER-SPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK AND CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES THIS
MORNING AS PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT OFF ONTARIO LIFTS NORTHWARD IN
BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY WARM THIS MORNING AND BY THE TIME
LIGHT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ENTERS NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ALTHOUGH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2KFT WILL LIKELY PICK UP SOME WET SNOW. EXPECT
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO WORK IT`S WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL COME WITH THE FROPA OVERNIGHT BUT
AGAIN EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AS MOST MODELS ONLY
SHOWING TOTALS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.
WILL SEE CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW KICKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FLURRY OR SPRINKLE.
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S SOUTH EARLY BEFORE COLDER AIR STARTS FILTERING INTO THE
REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NW FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHSN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
LATE N/MT ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU ON
MONDAY WITH -SHRASN PSBL N/MT AREAS AND MAYBE INTO THE FOOTHILLS
WHILE ELSEWHERE REMAINS DRY. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT WILL BRING A
LITTLE MILDER AIR IN...ONLY TO SEE COLDER AIR FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
COLD NW FLOW AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLD/SCT -SHSN ACROSS THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR BUT COLD WX
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY WX GIVES WAY TO INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRCP WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NGT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
SFC HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST ALLOWING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF AND
STRONG SFC LOW OVER THE NATION`S MID SECTION TO SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE
EASTWARD TO THE E COAST. SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY.
BEST CHC FOR RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WHEN VERY STRONG S SW FLOW LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS WELL WITH
SURGE OF WARM MOIST AIR PUSHING UP THE E COAST AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. A COLD FRONT MOVES THRU FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME SHRA LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.
USED A BLEND OF MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5...THEN USED A SUPER BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS AND MOS GUIDANCE
BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 THRU
8.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT
MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL WITH SHRASN OVER THE N/MT AREAS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NGT DUE TO CFP ON MONDAY AND NW UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING FOR MID AND EASTERN OUTER WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 2AM TONIGHT. SCA`S ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NW FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT MAY SEE WIND GUSTS AND SEAS INTO MINIMAL SCA
LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS AND SEAS MAY AGAIN
REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. OTHERWISE EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
431 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW IN SRN QUEBEC. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT FOLLOWED THE FIRST PASSED ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
EARLY THIS AFTN AND HAS PROVIDED A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE IS NOW LOCATED IN SW
QUEBEC. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BTWN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRES
RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS IS RELAXING...AND NOW THAT THE SFC PRES RISE
MAX HAS SLIPPED JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. OBS
OVER THE LAST HR OR TWO SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO DROP
ONGOING WIND ADVYS WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE.
SHORTWAVES THAT PASSED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER QUICKLY DIVING SE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SUN AFTN. WITH QUICK MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVES...SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL REACH UPPER MI TONIGHT...
RESULTING IN STEADILY BACKING WINDS WHICH WILL SHIFT ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT PCPN UNDER 850MB TEMPS OF -7/-8C. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...WAA
WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE W AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ONE
NEGATIVE FOR LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W IS THE NOTABLY WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOWN ON FCST SOUNDINGS. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT PCPN OVER THE W TONIGHT. WHAT PCPN
THERE IS MAY END UP MOSTLY CONCENTRATED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
DEVELOPS DUE TO LAND BREEZE ENHANCED BACKING OF LARGER SCALE WINDS.
TO THE E...INVERSION IS UP AROUND 7KFT. HOWEVER...A SOMEWHAT WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE MOSTLY ABOVE THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER...BACKING WINDS AND -SHRA/SN/GRAUPEL MIX AT LEAST
EARLIER IN THE EVENING WILL ALL WORK TO KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MINIMAL. MAY SEE LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR.
ON SUN...SHORTWAVE WILL BE DROPPING SE TOWARD THE AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROBABLY MOVING THRU THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI
MID TO LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS BACKING TO THE WSW WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LK EFFECT -SHRASN OVER THE E NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR BY AFTN. OTHERWISE...IF THERE IS ANY MORNING SUNSHINE...IT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THICKENING CLOUDS. MODEST DEEP LAYER FORCING PER
QVECTORS OVERTOP ADEQUATE OVERWATER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PCPN WILL
DEVELOP OR BE ENHANCED IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING PCPN CHANCES TO SPREAD S FROM
THE KEWEENAW IN THE MORNING TO MUCH OF THE N HALF OF UPPER MI BY 00Z
MON. WITH WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS INCREASING TO GENERALLY ABOVE
1500FT...PTYPE WILL BECOME MOSTLY RAIN...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE ERN CWA AT 00Z MON AS A 1040MB SFC
HIGH CENTERED OVER WRN CANADA CONTINUES A QUICK TRANSIT TOWARD THE
CWA. AS THE COLDER AIR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN SUN NIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP...LEADING TO INCREASE N-NNE WINDS
POSSIBLY LEADING TO GALES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. 850MB TEMPS WILL
DECREASE FROM AROUND -5C TO -11C BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z MON. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE N-NNE WINDS WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE
SNOW TO CORRESPONDING AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BE SHARPLY ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR LES...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL BE OVER
THE CWA SUN NIGHT AND MON...HELPING TO OFFSET THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS
OF THE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKE. COULD SEE 2-3 INCHES
OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND WRN ALGER
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE PORCUPINE
MOUNTAINS IN GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. THE LES WILL TAPER OFF
ALMOST COMPLETELY BY MID AFTERNOON MON AS THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
OF THE SFC HIGH DOMINATE.
THE SFC HIGH WILL WEAKEN TO 1033MB AS IT MOVES TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE CWA BY 12Z TUE...MOVING TO THE NE CONUS BY 00Z WED WHILE LEAVING
A 1026MB RIDGE OVER THE CWA. MODELS DO SHOW SOME QPF OVER OR S OF
THE SRN CWA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO OR S OF
THE CWA AND WE START WARM ADVECTING. IN FACT...BY 12Z WED...850MB
TEMPS INCREASE TO NEAR 0C. THESE TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ON TUE AND IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 ON WED AS
850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 7C.
ALL THIS WARM AIR IS BEING DRAW UP INTO THE CWA AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND A DEVELOPING SFC LOW LEEWARD
OF THE CO ROCKIES ON TUE. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH/TIMING/TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION...BUT
OVERALL MODELS AGREE DECENTLY ON THE GENERAL PATTERN. THE UPPER LOW
OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EITHER
FROM LATE THU/THU NIGHT (12Z/25 GFS SOLUTION) OR ON FRI (00Z/25
ECMWF SOLUTION)...BRINGING A DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH IT AS THE TROUGH
BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AGAIN...EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP AMOUNTS AND ESPECIALLY WINDS...SO THOSE ARE
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ONE ASPECT IS MORE CERTAIN...AND
SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND TYPE OF EVENT. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD BE ALL RAIN AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO UP TO 10C AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND DO NOT FALL BELOW 0C UNTIL THE SFC LOW IS IN QUEBEC. COULD
SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON FRI NIGHT/SAT AS MODELS
BRING COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE CWA ALONG WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...MODELED 850MB TEMPS DO NOT GET THAT COLD (AROUND
-6C AT THE COLDEST) SO WOULD NEED ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF ENERGY TO
SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OCCUR.
THIS MAY HAPPEN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT ON SMALLER
SCALE DETAILS THAT WOULD BE REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/PCPN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...EXPECT CONDITIONS
VARYING BTWN MVFR/VFR AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE AFTN HRS. THE
LOWEST CIGS THIS AFTN ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KSAW DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING LOW PRES SYSTEM AND DUE TO LONGER OVERWATER
TRAJECTORIES. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT PCPN.
AS WINDS BACK...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT KIWD/KSAW
AS OVERWATER TRAJECTORY IS LOST. OPTED TO LINGER A HIGH MVFR CIG AT
KCMX THRU THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
WHETHER OR NOT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL SHIFT N OF THAT TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT SAT OCT 26 2013
WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE QUICKLY MOVING E INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...LINGERING GALES OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY DROP SE...CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR SUN AFTN/EVENING. WITH STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGING SE TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND FRONT...HEALTHY PRES RISES WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT. COMBINED WITH AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR AND INCREASED OVERWATER
INSTABILITY...THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY 35KT GALES SUN
EVENING OVER MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE GALES WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS...
MOSTLY UNDER 20KT...SHOULD THEN PREVAIL MON-WED AS THE HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ248>251-265>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244-245.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1217 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. GUSTY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
KERN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST CHALLENGE/CONCERN ITEMS. THE SHORT TERM
FOCUS REMAINS ON TEMPERATURES WHILE MEDIUM/LONGER TERM EMPHASIS
SHIFTS TOWARD PRECIPITATION...WHEN TO INCLUDE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES AND WHETHER OR NOT SOMETHING OTHER THAN LIQUID
WILL FALL.
WIND SHIFT CURRENTLY WORKING THRU INTO EAST CENTRAL ZONES WILL
PROVIDE BRISK NNW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE MIXING...I.E. NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE AND NW
WINDS...PLUS A THE START IN THE UPPER 30S OR WARMER...COULD ALLOW
A BIT OF A SUPER OFF SURFACE AT MAX HTG SO WOULD SUSPECT HIGHS
SHOULD AT LEAST REACH WARMER MET GUIDANCE BASED ON RAP AND OTHER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREV FORECAST. A LATE
EVENING LOW STILL PROBABLY IN STORE FOR REGION TONIGHT AS TEMPS
STEADY LATE AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. THEN SW WINDS AND EVEN WARMER
H85 TEMPS ON SUNDAY...COMPARED TO FRIDAY...WITH DRY AND SUNNY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH A
CATEGORY OR MORE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...AND BOOSTED TOWARD WARMER
MET READINGS. WEAK WIND SHIFT ENTERING NRN ZONES BY LATE AFTN
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON HIGHS BUT COOLER AIR PUSHING IN
BEHIND IT LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL. THIS LEADS US TO...
FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES THAT THEN BEGIN INCREASING NEXT WEEK. MAIN
ISSUE MONDAY WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS INCREASE BECAUSE COOLER
AIR BELOW H85 WILL SET UP A FAIRLY STEEP INVERSION ABOVE 925-900
MB. NERLY SFC WINDS WILL LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
THICKEN UP BY MIDDAY OR SOONER...WHICH THEY COULD ACROSS SRN AND
WRN ZONES. BUT WITH TEMPS OFF SURFACE YET FAIRLY MILD WAS
RELUCTANT TO GO TOO MUCH BELOW GUIDANCE BUT OVC SKIES BY MIDDAY
WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO MAX TEMPS A CATEGORY OR EVEN MORE BELOW
EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR SERN ZONES WHERE COLD AIR WILL BE SHALLOWEST.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY AFTN SRN AND WRN ZONES AT LEAST...POSSIBLY
FARTHER NNE...BUT LIMITED CHCS TO THOSE ZONES AT THIS TIME.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN OR EVEN AGREEABLE AS TO WHEN OR
IF A POSSIBLE LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN MON NIGHT-WED
TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE+INTENSITIES...I.E. PRECIP BECOMING
PATCHY VRY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLY...MAY OCCUR TUE AFTN INTO TUE
NGT. THIS WOULD BE BEHIND INITIAL WARM CONVEYER BELT DRIVEN PRECIP
MON NGT AND BEFORE NEXT ROUND OCCURS AS LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP
AND GENEROUS H85 DWPTS SPREAD NORTH BY WED MORNING. PRECIP TYPE
SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
BY 12Z TUE INDICATED A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX NORTH WHILE GFS WAS
SHAKINGLY STICKING TO GENERALLY ALL LIQUID NRN ZONES. QUICK LOOK
AT 00Z ECMWF SHOWED THAT MODEL CONTINUING TO WARM H85 TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES... ALSO GENERALLY
SUPPORTING KEEPING PRECIP ALL LIQUID ALL ZONES FOR NOW. BOTTOM
LINE...STILL SOME RISK OF A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FAR NWRN
ZONES FOR A PERIOD MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE...IF SURFACE TEMPS COULD
STAY BELOW FREEZING...BUT REALLY NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SNOW FOR OUR
FA EXCEPT PER NAM POSSIBLY NEAR SD BORDER.
AS SYSTEM APPROACHES TUE-WED PERIODS...TEMPS ABOVE SURFACE
CONTINUE MODERATING ELIMINATING ANY MIXED PRECIP RISK THAT MAY
OCCUR FAR N AS SURFACE GRUDGINGLY INCREASE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADING INTO SRN ZONES AT LEAST COULD ALLOW A FEW TSTMS BY WED
AM...AND THESE MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
TRENDS PERSIST. CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL GENERALLY LEAD TO SMALL
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. TRIED TO TIGHTEN THEM UP A LITTLE WED
BY RAISING A FEW LOWS TUE NGT...AND SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF CONTINUITY SUGGESTS.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN DECREASING THU NIGHT/FRI
BUT CAN/T REMOVE MOST AREAS ENTIRELY AS TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY PERSISTS. ALTHOUGH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORTED A DRY
SATURDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON SOUTHWEST BACK THROUGH SAINT LOUIS
AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR AND INTO A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM FRONT NEAR
TEXARKANA...PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE CHALLENGE IN THIS
FORECAST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE MID SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INCLUDING THE 3KM HRRR INDICATE THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHERE
BETTER MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE.
NONETHELESS...THINK BEST CHANCES RAIN /ISOLATED-SCATTERED
COVERAGE/ WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL THE FRONT PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEING CONFINED MOSTLY TO EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE QUICKER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS
THE ECMWF UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT AND RAIN CHANCES MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (26/18Z-27/18Z)
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT CAUSING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW 8-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 65 52 74 / 20 10 10 10
MKL 42 63 45 71 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 44 63 47 70 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 45 67 48 74 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT SAT OCT 26 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
WILL HELP PUSH THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE MOISTURE COMING FROM
THE SOUTH INCREASING CLOSE TO THE SURFACE. KBRO 12Z SOUNDING SHOW THE
SLOW INCREASE OF PWATS REACHING 1.32 INCHES THIS MORNING. AS THE
ABUNDANT DRY AIR RAP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND WITH THE E/SE FLOW...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAIN VERY
LOW WITH A SILENT 10 ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT REMAIN BRIEF WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES
TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WARMER TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT
REACHING THE 70S ALONG THE RIVER AND THE UPPER 60S OVER THE NORTHERN
RANCHLAND.
INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER THAN
TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST AND PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOWER LEVEL WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE BUT THE 1000-500 MB RH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE 40 PERCENT LEVEL BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM MODELS. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER VALLEY NEARLY REACHING
THE 90 DEGREES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE MID 60S.
.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL AND FORECAST
THINKING FOR THIS LONG TERM PACKAGE. THIS WILL BE A REHASH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGES WITH STILL A WIDE SPREAD
BETWEEN TIMING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
MAIN ELEMENTS OF CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE INCREASING SE-S WIND MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK WINDS TUES/WED. ALSO...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
EVENTUALLY VEERS A BIT WEST OF SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. AS MENTIONED LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS.
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTH TEXAS TO LIE ON THE WESTERN END OF WARM
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN
CAMP WITH A SLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO SINK MORE SOUTH
THEN KICK EAST INITIALLY. THE CLOSE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP
INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THURSDAY LIFT NORTHEAST WELL NORTH
OF TEXAS. THE FLOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ZONAL TO EVEN SOUTHWEST. THIS IS NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE FOR FRONT PASSAGES. THE LATEST GFS MOS TEMPERATURES
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE 00Z ECMWF ONLY SHOW A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY FRONT WHICH IS NOT EVEN
APPROACHING SEASONAL NORMALS FOR NOVEMBER. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO STRENGTHEN MONDAY MAINLY DUE TO GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND SOME
WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER THE SIERRA MADRE. GFS IS TRENDING A BIT STRONG
NEARING 30 MPH BETWEEN HWY 69E/69C BUT WILL TREND IN THE BREEZY
/15-25MPH/ RANGE AND HOLD OFF ON THE WINDY /20-30/UNTIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. 925-850MB WINDS JUST
SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL DECENT IN THE 35-45 KNOT RANGE DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES SAME THINKING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS AHEAD OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. EXPECT ANOMALIES TO REACH 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
POST TROUGH/FRONT AS MENTIONED ONLY A 3 TO 5 DEGREE DROP IS
INDICATED AT THIS TIME. ONE ELEMENT OF NOTE IS THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEK. PWATS ARE ADVERTISED TO JUMP ABOVE THE 1.5 THRESHOLD
TUESDAY AND 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE IN
FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT TOO MUCH WIND AND NOT THE BEST DIRECTION
FOR AN ACTIVE SEA BREEZE. QUESTION ARISES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH. GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHER END
CHANCE POPS BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOWER END WITH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. DUE TO THE LONG EASTERLY
FETCH ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT AS THE SURF WATERS MOVES CLOSE TO THE DUNES. THE SEAS
WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY WITH BREEZE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
LOWERING INTO SUNDAY. SINCE TIDES HAVE BEEN 1FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED...WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WATERS TO PUSH UP
TO THE DUNE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL NOT CAUSE FLOODING BUT
WILL FORCE FOR SOME BEACH ACCESS TO BE CLOSE. THERE IS A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK DUE TO THE EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SOUTHEAST FLOW TO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
MONDAY BECOMING STRONG TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AND POSSIBLY FOR AN EXTENDED
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SCA/S WILL BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE DURING THE DAYTIME AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT.
AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT STRONGER SCA
CRITERIA WINDS COULD LINGER OVER THE LAGUNA WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 83 75 85 / 10 10 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 72 88 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
HARLINGEN 70 88 73 88 / 10 10 10 10
MCALLEN 71 90 71 90 / 10 10 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 69 89 70 90 / 10 10 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 76 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CDT SUNDAY
FOR TXZ251-256-257.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
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