Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/18/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

859 PM MDT THU OCT 17 2013

.UPDATE...MDLS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ENHANCED BANDS OF PCPN OVER
THE CWFA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BANDS ALREADY APPARENT ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER THIS EVENING. TIMING WISE...IT MAY BE A LITTLE
LATER FORMING OVER THE DENVER BUT IT COULD LAST UNTIL AROUND 15Z
AS WELL. THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC INDICATE A 3-HR QPF OF AROUND
ONE QUARTER INCH AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...SO THE MORE ENHANCED
BANDS OF SNOW AT THAT TIME...COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED THE GRASSY AREAS...WITH THE
WARM PAVEMENT MELTING ANY SNOWFALL. WILL ADJUST THE GRIDS WITH A
BIT MORE SNOWFALL AROUND 12Z...BUT THAT WILL BE IT FOR NOW.

.AVIATION...HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF PCPN AT KDEN BY AN HOUR A
COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH TRANSLATES INTO A LATER DEPARTURE TIME AS
WELL FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST RUC AND NAM12 SHOW BETTER QPF OVER
DENVER AROUND 12Z...SO SNOWFALL IN THE MORE ENHANCED BANDS COULD
PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE
10Z-13Z WINDOW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO IN THE GRASSY AREAS
AROUND THAT TIME...BUT PAVEMENT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS THERE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM MDT THU OCT 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
ROCKIES WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. LIFT
AND MOISTURE HAD BEEN INCREASING...WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME ECHOES
ACROSS LARIMER COUNTY EXTENDING NORTH INTO WYOMING. ALSO SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY GOOD OROGRAPHICS. MODELS
SIMILAR IN TAKING THE TROUGH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
WITH SOME SLIGHT DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...SHOULD SEE SNOW BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ZONES 33 AND 35. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BEGINS AT 03Z FOR THESE ZONES AND INCLUDES ZONE 34 AND THIS TIMING
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO
7 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS ZONES
33 AND 35. AMOUNTS MAY BE A BIT LESS ACROSS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
SUMMIT COUNTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY THERE. AS FOR ZONE
31...A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES COULD GET CLOSE
TO ADVISORY AMOUNTS. ACROSS PLAINS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. MAIN BATCH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO SPREAD SOUTH AFTER
03Z. FROM OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THERE SHOULD BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS FROM ROUGHLY DENVER
AND AKRON NORTHWARD...WITH ALL SNOW NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. BY
MIDNIGHT WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW ACROSS ALL
THE PLAINS. LATEST MODELS STILL INDICATING AN AREA OF HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM NORTHERN WELD COUNTY ACROSS MORGAN INTO
WASHINGTON COUNTIES. APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF CSI DUE TO JET IN
VICINITY. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND JET IN VICINITY...THIS
COULD BE CSI BANDED. WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
ZONES 38..42..44 AND 48 AND 49 BEGINNING AT 03Z AND GOING THROUGH
15Z AS AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE. LESSER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH AROUND AN INCH FOR THE DENVER
BOULDER AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THIS HEAVIER BAND
COULD SHIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD DENVER OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
THIS BAND NORTHEAST OF DENVER. ON FRIDAY...THE TROUGH AND LIFT
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
SNOW GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO OROGRAPHICS. TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S CROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT COOLER IN AREAS OF
DECENT SNOW COVER. MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
TO 30 MPH AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...WEATHER THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO BE HELD IN PLACE BY A
DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONTINENT. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...COLORADO WILL BE
UNDER DRY AND MILD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE
STATE EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH THE ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE-WISE...WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WE WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY WEAK
SURGES OF COOLER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE HELD ONTO TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO
SLIP DOWN TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S ON THE PLAINS EACH MORNING.

AVIATION...MOISTURE CURRENTLY INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AS
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CEILINGS OF AROUND
7000 FEET AGL BY 00Z...THEN GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS TO INITIALLY DEVELOP...MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER
03Z...THEN CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. AT THIS TIME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN
INCH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES
IF THE HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW MOVES TOWARDS DENVER. NORTHEAST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 15Z AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.
CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AT THAT TIME...BECOMING VFR AROUND
17Z.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. SNOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY MORNING...HIGHEST ACROSS
LARIMER COUNTY.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ038-042-044-
048-049.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ033>035.

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...COOPER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

340 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS CFWA. STILL SOME CLOUDS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT GENERATING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PREVAIL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY CHILLY DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING OROGRAPHICS. THOUGH MOST OF THE MID LEVEL QG
ASCENT STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT FURTHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING. AS FOR FOOTHILLS...APPEARS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE
HIGHER AREAS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. ACROSS PLAINS...COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING. CROSS
SECTIONS KEEP UPSLOPE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT
INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING. DID INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS ZONE 38 WHERE THE
GREATER LIFT WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER ALONG THE HIGHER AREAS OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
OVERALL CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEEM REASONABLE...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS AT MID-
LEVELS DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD AND A
STRONG NORTHERLY JET ALOFT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WHICH MAY
ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 33...34 AND 35 STARTING
A 9 PM TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOUR TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. AT LOW LEVELS...
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUING ON THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ALSO GIVE
THE MOISTENING AIRMASS JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. ON THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE EVENING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN. THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOSTLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXCEPT
ON THE PALMER DIVIDE.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE STATE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BY NOON...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ALL SHOW
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE
DE-AMPLIFIES AND EXTENDS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

.AVIATION...NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY AT AREA AIRPORTS. BOTH NAM
AND HRRR SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z THEN
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING SPEEDS TO REMAIN LESS THAT 10 KTS.
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY BEHIND A PASSING WEAK
COLD FRONT...THEN NORTHEAST BY AROUND 18Z. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
VFR TO PREVAIL.

.HYDROLOGY...MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY THE
EVENING. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR COZ033>035.

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

1030 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER BOTTOMS
STILL AROUND 30. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
OTHERWISE...WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK. MAIN LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...VERY LIMITED
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CFWA. LATEST RUC AND NAM SHOWING
A DRIER SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OVER THE AREA BY 18Z AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF COLORADO. WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH PARK DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WILL ALSO DECREASE THE CLOUDS A BIT...BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE.
REST OF FORECASTS SEEM ON TRACK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TODAY.

.AVIATION...CURRENT TAF TRENDS LOOK ON TRACK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. WINDS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING A BIT MORE NORTHWEST...
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 8 KTS. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST BY 20Z...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8 KTS. LATEST RAP AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTEND THE HRRR INDICATING WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
02Z. WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AND A BIT OF
MIXING...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST DIRECTION
THROUGH 02Z BEFORE SHIFING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM MDT WED OCT 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...SHARPLY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND LOW CENTER CONTINUE
THEIR SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS COLORADO AT THIS TIME. ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARED TO BE
CENTERED IMMEDIATELY NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. INCREASING CLOUD
ENHANCEMENT SHOWING UP ON IR SAT IMAGERY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AREA OF ENHANCEMENT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE PALMER DIVIDE. IN THE PAST HOUR NWS DEN AND PUB RADARS
DETECTED A MODEST INCREASE IN PRECIP ECHO COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. NOW SEE A FEW ECHOS POPPING OVER THE FOOTHILLS IN
DOUGLAS COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF LINCOLN COUNTY. THE STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS NAM...GFS...WRF AND EUROPEAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE UPPER LOW
WITH ITS LIFT AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BORDER. SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA MAY CATCH SOME OF THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY OF
LIGHT INTENSITY. SOUTH PARK AND FOOTHILL AREAS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF
DENVER MAY ALSO SEE AN UPTICK IN PRECIP FORMATION IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER ANY QPF/SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY.
HOWEVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWFA WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNDER MOSTLY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AT LEAST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND
THE 850-600 MB TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. OVERALL..THE FREEZE WARNING
OVERNIGHT VERIFIED. AT THE PRESENT TIME...TEMPERATURES ON THE
PLAINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ALL EXCEPT IN BOULDER COUNTY WHERE
THE LOW CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW/MID 30S. WITH
ANY CLEARING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WARNING SHOULD VERIFY
THERE...TOO.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN FROM WYOMING RESULTING IN GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RETURN OF SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON SHOULD RETURN
TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S ON THE PLAINS. CLEARING WON/T BE AS QUICK IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY SO ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER UP THERE TODAY. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD ALSO SEE THE LAST OF THE FEW REMAINING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TODAY EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEAST WHERE NWLY WINDS OF
10-20KTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PASS OVERHEAD. CLEAR SKIES...CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

LONG TERM...FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST COLORADO WILL BE
UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
ALOFT REMAINS OFF THE WEST COAST. WITHIN THE FLOW...AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE AREA. OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS THE MODELS HAVE BECOME VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
WAVE AND TIMING. HENCE...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE WILL CONTINUE
THE UPWARD TREND IN CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. INITIALLY THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY
BUT EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE DURING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING FOR MOST LOCALES TO
SEE SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AIRMASS
SATURATES. OVERALL QPF FROM MODELS IS RANGING FROM .10 TO UP TO
50" OF AN INCH SO CONCEIVABLE THAT THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THERE IS SOME MODEST QG FORCING ALOFT AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS
COLORADO. THE SNOW WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY MORNING
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE THAT BRUSHES NORTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BUT FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN A STRONGER JET
STREAK WILL APPROACH NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SOME MOISTURE. BEING THAT FAR OUT WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
NOW.

AVIATION...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE 3000-5000 FT AGL RANGE IN
THE DENVER AREA AS OF 09Z/WED. LOWER CEILINGS FOUND IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. LOW CLOUDS OVER AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF DENVER PRODUCING SNOW FLURRIES AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES AT DENVER AREA AIRPORTS
NOW THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS IN THE DENVER
AREA SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING NOT LONG AFTER SUNRISE (13Z-14Z)...WITH
VFR CEILINGS BY MID-MORNING...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY MIDDAY.
THE OUTLOOK IS FOR VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS UNDER 8 KTS UNDERNEATH A
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....ENTREKIN
AVIATION...D-L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

857 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WITH PWAT JUST OVER AN INCH AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP WITH THE BASE AT 6-8K FEET. HOWEVER, THERE HAVE
BEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT HAVE TEASING THE
BROWARD COUNTY COAST WITH AN EFFORT TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW
LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. THESE WILL BE VERY LOW TOPPED SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL AREA COVERAGE AND MOSTLY JUST OVER A TRACE
ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE, THE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES.

KOB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013/

..CONTINUED MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS MOVES SLOWLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA. THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS THAT AFFECT
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE FAR AND FEW. SO WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS TIME AND ONLY SHOW
A SLIGHT 10 PERCENT POPS OVER THE AREA.

PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN AREAS OF FOG OVER THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS...DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SO HAVE ADDED FOG
WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND...AS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND WHICH
IN TURN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP A EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
WEEKEND. SO THE SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 4 FEET TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...WHILE IN THE GULF WATERS
THE SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS. SO BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 72 87 73 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 75 87 76 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 87 74 88 75 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 87 70 88 72 / 10 - 10 -

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1253 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY REMAIN IN THE
OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY MORNING FOG IS POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013/

UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE WITH A WELL
PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION IS
SUPPRESSING ANY SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND MAINLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013/

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO SPREAD MOISTURE
WESTWARD AND INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ASSOCIATED SHRAS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOCAL HI RES MODELS DEPICT A FEW OF THESE SHRAS MOVING
CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST SITES DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH
AFTER 14Z. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK DRAINAGE AT
KAPF. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE EAST COAST
SITES TOMORROW AT AROUND 10 KTS WITH A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPING AT
KAPF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VERY PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH TWO MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A TROUGH HAS BEEN CUT
OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FORCING THE GULF RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST AND THE ATLANTIC TROUGH GETS
PINCHED OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. THE ATLANTIC TROUGH HAS
IN TURN, INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IN THE
VICINITY OF NASSAU AND ANDROS ISLAND. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TO THE WEST IN AN
OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE AREA SURROUNDING
SOUTH FLORIDA. I MENTION ALL OF THIS AS THE NAM HAS CAPTURED THIS
SURFACE FEATURE MORE SO THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER.
THE PROBLEM FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PERIOD OR TWO WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS HOW MUCH AFFECT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE ALREADY ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH A COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOVEMENT TO THEM AROUND THE LOWER
PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE NAM IS NOTED FOR SUFFERING FROM MESOSCALE
BIAS BUT SOMETIMES PICKS UP ON THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH ITS
FINER RESOLUTION BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT. FOR ALL OF
THESE REASONS, WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE BIAS WILL NOT GO AS
BULLISH AS THE MET GUIDANCE BUT WILL CERTAINLY GO ABOVE THE MAV
NUMBERS.

THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES HIGH MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWING PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES. THIS IS
NO DOUBT IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REDUCE THE POPS CLOSER TO
THE MAV GUIDANCE BUT AGAIN THE MAV MIGHT BE TOO LOW.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AND THE HIGHEST TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE PEAKING
BETWEEN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON WHICH IS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
THEREFORE BE AN INCREASE IN SOME NUISANCE TYPE URBAN STREET FLOODING
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS SUCH AS MIAMI
BEACH. THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL BE OCCURRING
IN THE EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE GULF RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTH GULF COASTAL STATES EARLY FRIDAY, WILL STALL AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING LOW. BUT STILL, THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
4 FEET OR LESS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING SPREADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 87 73 87 74 / 20 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 85 75 / 20 20 20 10
MIAMI 86 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 10
NAPLES 88 72 88 72 / 20 10 20 10

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

731 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED SOUTH OF ATLANTA WITH PATCHY
SHOWERS...LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT... NOW
MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL GA. NOT SUFFICIENT LIFT NOR INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTION OF THUNDER THE REST OF TONIGHT... SO HAVE UPDATED
ZONES TO REMOVE THUNDER WORDING. CLOUDS STRETCH WELL BACK INTO TN
AND NW AL... SO HAVE TWEAKED CLOUDS TO SHOW A SLOW SCATTERING OVER
NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... THEN HELD ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE... FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH SCATTERED SKIES AND COOLER LOWS IN THE 40S STILL EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO NORTH GA BY MORNING. /39

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013/
SHORT TERM MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING WEAKEN FRONT
WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS INITIALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS WELL AND NEAR
TERM FORECAST WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD RAP AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE IN
THE ATL AREA BY 4-5PM AND OVER THE GVL-AHN AREA BY THIS EVENING.
WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP MENTION OF THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS
INSTABILITY LIMITED AS WEAK WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PUSHING OUT OF
FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MORNING. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS CONTINUE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND EXPECT THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE DRYING WE CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME
COOL AREA STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS WELL. WILL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND
SETTLED ON SCATTERING CLOUDS OUT THIS EVENING BUT DID NOT CLEAR THEM
OUT ALTOGETHER. BASED UPON HOLDING SOME CLOUDS IN HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR SO OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.

ATWELL

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013/
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONSISTENT
INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WITH BE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM
SIMILAR WITH SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL GA
AND THE EUROPEAN IS MORE BROADLY SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY NIGHTS END. ALL IN ALL THIS SEEMS TO KEEP BEST
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. GFS/NAM KEEPS THE BEST
MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR SATURDAY WHILE
THE EUROPEAN SPREADS MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EITHER WAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N GA. THE MOISTURE COMING N
DUE MAINLY TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE.

THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA TO START SUNDAY
BUT WILL EXIT THAT AREA QUICKLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHICH BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE FAR
SE CWA WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SE CWA TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

BDL/01

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF ATL AT THIS TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL OBS SHOW MVFR CIGS STRETCHING BACK
INTO NORTH AL AND CENTRAL TN. WILL HOLD ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 03Z
FRI...THEN CLOUDS MIGHT SCATTER BY 05-06Z FRI... BUT CONFIDENCE IN
ONLY MEDIUM ON THIS. WORSE CASE... MID LEVEL CIGS COULD PERSIST THRU
08-09Z FRI. OTHERWISE...ONCE SCATTER... MAINLY A WIND FORECAST. A NW
WIND AROUND 5-8KTS WILL PERSIST THRU 19-20Z FRI...THEN WINDS BACK
MORE WEST AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. A NW
WIND WILL RETURN BY 00-02Z SAT AND PERSIST SAT NIGHT AT 4-6KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 74 55 72 / 40 5 20 20
ATLANTA 56 73 59 71 / 40 5 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 44 68 48 72 / 40 5 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 49 72 52 75 / 30 5 5 10
COLUMBUS 61 79 61 74 / 20 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 53 69 56 74 / 40 5 5 20
MACON 59 77 61 74 / 20 10 40 30
ROME 49 73 50 75 / 10 5 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 54 73 54 72 / 40 5 10 20
VIDALIA 65 82 65 77 / 10 30 50 30

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL/39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

351 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM UNTIL 10 PM EDT...

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
THE SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION.
HOWEVER...A THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FAR WESTERN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING...SPREADING STEADILY EAST TO THE COAST. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY IF NOT CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATE FROM LATE EVENING
ON. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE WARMER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. SREF VISIBILITY PLUMES AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-95 EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BECOME TOO
MUCH OF AN ISSUE GIVEN THE THICK MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE TEXT AND
GRIDDED FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES EARLY THURSDAY.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN STEADILY DESCEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS THE PROGRESS OF THE MAIN FRONT SLOWS UPSTREAM DUE
TO DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPARTING WELL TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR INLAND ZONES AFTER SUNSET AND OVER THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AS A RESULT OF WARM WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH MILD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY...AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AT THE SAME TIME THAT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONES AND WITHIN A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COULD SHIFT INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED
FRONT...YET LATEST THINKING IS THAT BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM
NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WHILE THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED EAST AND SE INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ITS CO-LOCATED SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE SE PART OF THE COUNTRY. BUT WHEN THIS OCCURS AND EXACTLY
WHERE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT COULD START TO CLIMB AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER INTO EARLY IN
THE WEEK...BUT COULD MODERATE AGAIN BY MID WEEK.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS AT KCHS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON
THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z BEFORE BREAKING AS THEY ERODE FROM THE WEST.
LIGHT/SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE AT EITHER TERMINAL...BUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS SEEM LOW AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK..MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT ALL
LEGS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLD FIRM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM
1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS AND BE COMPRISED
MAINLY OF EASTERLY SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 10-11 SECONDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
STALLS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE CAPPED AT 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...
INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...VALID 5-10 PM. TIDE IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR IS EXPECTED TO PEAK 7.2-7.5 FT MLLW AND 9.1-9.4 FT MLLW
AT FORT PULASKI.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COURTESY OF THE FULL MOON THAT OCCURS FRIDAY
EVENING WILL MOST PROBABLY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH MOST IF NOT ALL HIGH TIDES INTO THE WEEKEND.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.

ST/WMS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

142 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT

COOL AND PERIODICALLY DAMP WEATHER WILL DESCRIBE THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS AN AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM JAMES BAY BACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE FOUR CORNERS. A LARGE NORTH-SOUTH
RIDGE IS IN PLACE OFF THE WEST COAST WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
IS FOUND OVER CENTRAL CANADA WHERE ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS
TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LAST EVENING. A RIBBON OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

TODAY...MANY CONCERNS THIS PERIOD RANGING FROM CLOUDS AND STRATUS TO
DRIZZLE. THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTHWEST HAS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN IT OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS
CLOSED CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP/WEAKEN WITH THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A
VERY LARGE AREA OF STRATUS SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
WITH THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES...UPWARD MOTION WILL BE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE SEEN THIS ALREADY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTH WHERE SHOWER COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS BEEN WANING. WITH
THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS IN PLACE SURFACE WARMING WILL BE LIMITED
LEAVING LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MEAGER. WITH THIS IN MIND
EXPECT THAT THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
LEADING TO LOWER/MINIMAL POPS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOWEVER WITH A DECENT DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK
ASCENT. UPSTREAM OBS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE. AS ALLUDED TO...THE STRATUS WILL MAKE TEMPS
A CHALLENGE. STRATUS DOES LOOK TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO REALLY LIMIT WARMING.
UNLESS SOME BREAKS CAN DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY ALLOWING SOME MINIMAL
SUNSHINE...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ABOUT A 3-5 DEGREE DIURNAL
INCREASE IN TEMPS FROM MORNING LOW...QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S IN NORTHERN
AREAS TO THE MID EVEN UPPER 50S FAR SOUTH...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHERE ANOTHER CLOSED
CIRCULATION IS TAKING SHAPE. THIS LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST TWO-THIRDS...
STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. THE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE EVENING IF NOT THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID CLOUDS WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVERNIGHT. WITH SOME
QUESTION ABOUT HOW LONG THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG ON AND IF THERE
WILL BE A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER BEFORE THE HIGHER CLOUDS ARRIVE WILL
ONLY RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS FOR NOW...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ONLY A RELATIVELY SMALL FALL OVER DAYTIME HIGHS. THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO DECREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
TODAY DESPITE SIMILAR MID LEVEL TEMPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE TROUGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. PART OF
THIS WAVE LOOKS TO SPLIT OFF AND MOVE DUE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WHILE THE REST TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL OF THIS ENERGY WILL RESULT
IN A NEW LONGWAVE TROUGH RIGHT ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY. A WAVE WILL THEN ZIP NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. THE LONGWAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW EVEN COLDER MID LEVEL AIR TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA...WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LESS COHERENT BUT OVERALL MINIMAL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LOOK TO BE IN FULL SWING EAST OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES AND CONTINUED
COOL TEMPERATURES BUT THE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS RANGE.

MDB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* LOWER END MVFR STRATUS DECK.

* POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

* CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

MAIN ISSUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CIGS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STRATUS UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH...IN
THE WAKE OF AN EXITING UPPER LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
WHILE THERE ARE A FEW ISOLD AREAS OF IFR CIGS...THE GREATER
PORTION OF THE ST DECK IS AT THE LOWER END OF MVFR. WHILE THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME IFR CIGS TO SNEAK INTO THE TERMINALS...RFD WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY OF
CIGS...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING. SINCE THE SATURATED LAYER IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...THERE
WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE A
PREVAILING PCPN CONDITION OR SGFNT REDUCTION IN VIS DUE TO
PCPN...OR BR AS DEWPOINTS WILL TREND LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TOMORROW AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...BUT THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE
CLOSER TO CNTRL IL/NRN INDIANA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
TERMINALS...SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCSH MENTION FOR PCPN AT THIS
TIME.

KREIN

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES THAT CIGS WILL DROP TO IFR ARE
LOW...BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR TOMORROW
MORNING.

* MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT FROM
PCPN ON THE TERMINALS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC SHRA.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLT CHC SHRA.

BMD

.MARINE...
124 PM CDT

A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE THE LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN
MONDAY. GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WITH THE GUSTY WEST WINDS AND WAVES AROUND 4 FT AT
MICHIGAN CITY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR INDIANA SHORES EAST OF BURNS HARBOR INTO THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...GUSTING
TO 25 TO 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE. AN
UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTH PART OF THE LAKE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A
LOW END THREAT FOR A WATERSPOUT.

ALLSOPP

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1259 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

Will be updating the forecast for cooler highs today (mid 50s IL
river valley and lower 60s southeast IL) and increase cloud cover,
similar to what we did yesterday. Otherwise rest of forecast looks
on track today with breezy west winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of
20 to 25 mph.

1002 mb low pressure was over the eastern end of upper mi penisula
with its cold front slicing through western Ohio and central KY and
west TN while a secondary frontal trof was over central WI into
southeast IA. Strong 550 dm 500 mb low was ne of Lake Superior
with a large upper level trof extending sw into IA/NE and southern CO
and northern NM where a short wave was. Low clouds over much of
central and nw IL as far southeast as Mattoon and also mid level
cloud deck southeast of I-70. Models show upper level trof
pivoting se toward central IL and moving into the state on Thursday
as short wave ejects from southern CO/northern NM toward the region.
This should keep more clouds over central and nw parts of CWA
while some sunshine over southeast IL allows for milder highs in
the lower 60s. Temps currently in the lower 50s with Bloomington
and Galesburg still at 49F.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1257 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

MVFR ceilings of 1.5-3k feet (currently as far se as MTO) will
occur across the central IL terminal airports through tonight and
scatter out from west to east after 15Z/Thu. Cloud deck is 1-2k ft
thick and will have breaks in it at times like currently at BMI.
Have VCSH moving in from 08Z- 10Z from west to east and ending
from 15-18Z due to a short wave in the 4 corners ejecting
northeast to near St Louis by 12Z Thu and passing ne of central IL
by 18Z Thu. VFR visibilies are expected to prevail next 24 hours.
Breezy west winds of 10-15 kts with gusts 17-22 kts this afternoon
to become light sw this evening and veer more westerly and
increaing to 9-13 kts after 15Z Thu.

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 243 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

Latest surface map shows low pressure over the eastern part of the
Michigan Upper Peninsula. The cold front extends southwest, and
shows up as a narrow fine line through extreme southwest Indiana
per radar imagery from the Evansville radar. Narrow clear slot
just west of the Illinois River was about to be overtaken by a
large stratocumulus deck from the northwest, and excessive mid and
high clouds have been streaming northeast along the front across
most of the forecast area.

Main concern in the short term is with trying to time any cloud
breakup today, followed by rain chances late tonight and early
Thursday. Longer range issues focus on early weekend storm system
and the cool weather trend which will last much of the forecast
period.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

Latest RAP model guidance showing the mid/high clouds shifting
south toward the Ohio Valley later today, as the stratocumulus
pushes south of the I-72 corridor, although the NAM shows some
decent break up by late morning. Given the expansive nature of the
clouds, stretching all the way into northern Minnesota, will go
with the more pessimistic route and keep skies mostly cloudy
across the central and northern CWA today, with a bit of sunshine
over the south. Went a couple degrees below the MOS guidance for
highs, but this may need to be adjusted downward later if we are
unable to get any breaks to develop.

Shortwave currently near the 4 Corners region will zip eastward
later today. 00Z model guidance closes this off as it reaches the
Iowa/Illinois border toward sunrise Thursday, but ranges quite a
bit in terms of any precipitation over our area. NAM is nearly dry
with most of the precip near the remains of the earlier frontal
boundary south of the Ohio River, while the GFS has a narrow rain
axis just east of I-55. The ECMWF and Canadian models are much
more bullish with widespread showers. Currently leaning toward
more of the GFS solution but a bit more widespread with the
showers Thursday morning, fairly similar in coverage to the earlier
grids. However, am thinking that much of this will be out of the
area by early afternoon, although some slight chance PoP`s will be
in the afternoon forecast across the east.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A deepening upper trough over the central U.S. will be the main
player this weekend, as a wedge of colder air drops southward from
Canada. Some potential exists for light rain Friday night or early
Saturday as the trough axis starts to shift eastward, but will
maintain 20% PoP`s at this time. Some frost potential for Saturday
night as winds lighten and temperatures fall into the upper 30s
over the northern half of the CWA.

Going into early next week, periodic lobes of energy will drop
southward across the Midwest. The latest ECMWF remains quite
chilly similar to the past couple runs, with 850 mb temperatures
falling to around -5C by midweek, although the GFS is several
degrees warmer. For now, have not strayed too far from the
guidance, which keeps temperatures fairly similar throughout the
period.

Geelhart

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

1101 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT

MDB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* LOWER END MVFR STRATUS DECK.

* POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

MAIN STORY TODAY WILL BE BROAD STRATUS DECK THAT IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW PRESSURE IS LIFTING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO EASTERN IOWA. STRATUS
DECK EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO
VERY GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CLOUD COVER IS MAINLY MVFR...IFR CIGS ARE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA...PRIMARILY WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS. IFR CIGS MAY REACH RFD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CHICAGO AREA...IT WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK
PRESSURE RISES AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY FOR
IFR INTO THE CHICAGO TERMINALS. MOST GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLING
BUT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE DECENT OF A HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILE...KEEPING MOISTURE IN PLACE THOUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THEN DEPARTING EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING AS A
SHEARED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. BEST TIME
FRAME WOULD BE FROM 15Z TO 18Z...AND IT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
4-5SM...BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR CIGS TO DROP TO IFR.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN SGFNT DRIZZLE IMPACTING TERMINALS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC SHRA.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLT CHC SHRA.

BMD

.MARINE...
258 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO IOWA.
WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE WHERE 30
KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER THIS
AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR THE INDIANA
NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF BURNS HARBOR THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
ALLOWING WINDS TO INCREASE WITH 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
TAPER ACROSS THE ENTIRE LATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS INTO
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THEN PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LAKES REGION.

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1044 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

The surface low is progressing farther to the NE into the Great
Lakes, while the cold front departs through Indiana. Wrap around
moisture in Minnesota and Iowa has already reached PIA and SPI,
and those MVFR clouds at 2-2.5K feet will reach all the way to DEC
and CMI by 13z. A couple of hours of IFR clouds between 700-900 ft
are being reported back across Iowa. Mixing and daytime heating
should help to lift those ceilings above 1000 ft by the time that
area reaches PIA around 16z. So no IFR conditions were included in
the 12z TAF issuance. Ceilings may climb above 3k ft to VFR levels
later this afternoon, but chances are that they will return to
MVFR in the evening.

We cant rule out some light drizzle or sprinkles today as a
surface trough reaches IL later today. We will monitor those
trends but keep a dry forecast for now.

Winds will increase from the west this morning, with sustained
speeds of 12-14kt and gusts to 22kt at times. Winds should
diminish below 10kt by evening

Shimon
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 243 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Geelhart

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

911 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
306 AM CDT

MDB

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* MVFR STRATUS DECK.

* POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING.

KREIN

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR IFR.

* LOW CONFIDENCE IN DRIZZLE IMPACTING TERMINALS.

KREIN

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...SLT CHC SHRA.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...CHC SHRA.
TUESDAY...SLT CHC SHRA.

BMD

.MARINE...
258 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
701 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 243 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Geelhart

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

We cant rule out some light drizzle or sprinkles today as a
surface trough reaches IL later today. We will monitor those
trends but keep a dry forecast for now.

Winds will increase from the west this morning, with sustained
speeds of 12-14kt and gusts to 22kt at times. Winds should
diminish below 10kt by evening

Shimon
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

304 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
931 PM CDT

ONLY REAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO ADJUST HOURLY SKY
TRENDS TO BETTER MATCH SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS IN
SPREADING IN THE STRATUS DECK FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
BEEFED UP SKY COVER A BIT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE SOME
DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST CWA LATE TONIGHT POTENTIALLY
SPREADING EAST INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING WITHIN
THE STRATUS DECK. THINKING THAT GOING POPS FOR TOMORROW LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER LIKELY TO LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WITH LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS MAKING SHOWERS LOOK FAIRLY UNLIKELY. IF ANYTHING WOULD
APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A STRATUS/MORNING DRIZZLE TYPE SCENARIO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE OPTED TO LET GOING FORECAST POPS RIDE
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRIEF ONCOMING NIGHT SHIFT AND ALLOW THEM
TO GET A LOOK AT FULL SUITE OF 00Z DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS. STRATUS DECK LIKELY TO RESULT IN VERY LITTLE HEATING
WEDNESDAY AND GOING FORECAST HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD TREND AND EVEN THOSE HIGHS COULD END UP A TAD WARM WHERE SUN
DOESN`T BREAK OUT AT ALL.

IZZI

//PREV DISCUSSION...
307 PM CDT

THE FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED ON TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WITH CLOUD COVER BEING KEY. SMALL BUT FREQUENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EXIST IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE EXTENDED...AND
ALSO WERE A FOCUS TODAY.

SYNOPSIS...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
IS BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER
WELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THU. AT THE SURFACE...1005MB LOW NEAR
THE TWIN CITIES IS MOVING NORTHEAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...NOT FAR BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM DRY
SLOT...PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST IL. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE SUNSHINE FOR ONE TO TWO HOURS PRIOR
TO SUNDOWN. THE MAIN AXIS OF SHOWERS THAT PASSED TODAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPING
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS REVEALS A NARROW
AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT BUT THAT HAS SHOWN NO TREND FOR
INCREASE...AND DIAGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS ADAPTED FOR SURFACE T/TDS
INDICATE MAYBE 100-200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. CONTINUE SMALL POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE UNTIL IT PASSES.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A QUICK DROP IN
TEMPS AND EVEN A MORE RAPID FALL IN DEW POINTS. THE DRY SLOT AND
ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSION...ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER...SHOULD HELP TO SCOOT THE LOW CLOUDS EAST FOR
MUCH OF THE EVE. WRAPAROUND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP THEIR WAY
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WED
MORNING. NAM AND NCEP WRF RH AND CONDENSATE FIELDS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT WITH THIS AND IT LINES UP WELL WITH CAA IN THE 850-925MB
LAYER FOR STRATOCU. THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR THESE CLOUDS TO
PREVAIL MUCH OF WED IF NOT A GOOD PART OF WED EVE...AND HAVE
EXTENDED FURTHER IN FORECAST AND LONGER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE WOULD
OUTRIGHT INDICATE. MID-LEVEL VORT AND COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL LIKELY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN WI...AND
HAVE CONTINUED THE CHANCES ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED CONSIDERABLY BY THE CLOUDS
AND EXPECT LITTLE RANGE BETWEEN MORNING STARTING VALUES AND DAYTIME
MAXS. HAVE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S BUT LOWER 50S CERTAINLY COULD
MATERIALIZE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BECOMES A
PROGRESSIVE WAVE IN GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INTO CENTRAL IL BY THU
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE NAM AND EC WITH THIS
WHICH ARE BOTH SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS
PATH...WHICH FAVOR SHOWER CHANCES OVER MORE OF THE CWA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS WITH THIS VORT PASSAGE. TEMPS ON THU LOOK TO BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN WED...BUT CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERS WILL
KEEP READINGS IN THE 50S.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY ESTABLISHES
ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW...WHICH LOOK TO OVERALL LOWER THE
THICKNESSES AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT SLOWLY. THIS SHOULD REFLECT
ITSELF IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY HIGHS...BUT IT IS
BECOMING MORE MUDDY. DURING SAT AND SUN CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW
AS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE EC DO WANT TO SHOW A MORE ROBUST WARM
SECTOR WITH A LOW IN THE NW FLOW...AND THAT INFRINGES INTO THE CWA
ON SUN. THE 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO 8C IN THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THAT
TIME...WHILE THE GEM AND GFS IN THAT PERIOD BASICALLY KEEP READINGS
AT 0C OR BELOW. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF CLOUDS FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BE A LARGER PLAYER IN
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY MINS. SO OVERALL MANY PERIODS WITH CHANCE
POPS...BUT THOSE WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN TIME.

MTF

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...

* MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY
DROPPING NEAR OR TO IFR.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...

LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL
IOWA. A BROAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK SPANS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH...AND IS GRADUALLY SPREADING
EAST...REACHING THE ROCKFORD TERMINALS SHORTLY...AND THE CHICAGO
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. LEADING EDGE OF THE STRATUS IS VFR BUT THEN
DROPS TO MVFR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT
UNTIL AROUND 06Z THURSDAY WHEN FLOW BECOMES NEUTRAL...THAN
ANTICYCLONIC. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PASSING OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR...MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT THIS TIME.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECTION.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z THURSDAY-12Z TUESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.
* FRIDAY...DRY/VFR.
* SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
* SUNDAY...DRY/VFR.
* MONDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA.

.MARINE...
258 AM CDT

BMD

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.CHICAGO.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
244 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 243 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

Geelhart

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2013

VFR conditions prevail across the central Illinois terminals at the
moment, with westerly winds in the wake of the today`s cold front.
Wrap around cloud cover, with cigs ranging in height from VFR to
IFR, is spreading toward the area. The models are having trouble
with how quickly these clouds should arrive, and satellite
extrapolation is likely to be the best estimation at this point.
For now, have kept MVFR cigs restricted to KPIA and KBMI, with VFR
cigs elsewhere. Cigs should rise to VFR area-wide by the end of the
06Z TAF valid time.

Bak

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1217 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE EARLIER CONCERN IS BEING REALIZED...TEMPERATURES ARE BARELY
MOVING IF AT ALL. THUS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE BEING LOWERED AGAIN.

SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW DIURNAL COLD WX CLOUDS DEVELOPING ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNSET AND THEN DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...THE EFFECT WILL BE TO DELAY
ANY CLEARING FURTHER. TRENDS FROM THE RAP ARE NOW POINTING TO
KEEPING CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE WITH
CLEARING ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
NORTHEAST. THUS MIN TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN RAISED IN
ANTICIPATION OF CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. ..08..

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

SPOTTY DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM THE 700 AND
500MB TROFS AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT 700MB. RAP
TRENDS HAVE THE OVERALL LIFT DISSIPATING DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
THE TRENDS WITH THE RAP ARE CORRECT...AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH
OF HWY 30 WOULD BE FAVORED FOR DRIZZLE.

TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE RESPONDED A FEW DEGREES SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT MINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER LOWERING OF MAX TEMPERATURES BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...CLEARING LOOKS DOUBTFUL PRIOR
TO SUNSET. RECENT RAP TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER COMBINED
WITH THE WEAKENING OCTOBER SUN INDICATE A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RISE
IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. ..08..

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ TUESDAY EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW
EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN AND WESTERN IA. WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN WAS OCCURRING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHERN IA.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

CLOUDS TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
GREAT LAKES SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
TRAILING CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTEND INTO EASTERN NE AND
SOUTH DAKOTA SO IT/S DOUBTFUL THAT ANY CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING OVER THE AREA. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
CLEARING TONIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE WEST WILL SEE SOME CLEARING
LATE WHILE THE NAM HOLDS HIGH H8 RH OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...SUPPORTING LITTLE IF ANY CLEARING. IF THE LOW CLOUDS
WOULD CLEAR OVER PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ANY CLEARING SHOULD
BE BRIEF WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A
S/W LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE S/W WILL ALSO BRING A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CHANGING
MUCH TODAY AND TONIGHT. 50S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

PATTERN CHANGE TO A PREVAILING NW FLOW TO BRING ABOUT A CHANGE TO
BELOW TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL REMAIN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE TRANSITION...WEAK SYSTEMS WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT UNDER THE SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE EAST WILL BE
HANDLED WITH VERY LOW POPS THU MORNING. BY AFTERNOON...A
TRANSITORY MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT FOLLOWS SHOULD BRING
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL
TO THE NORTH...WILL NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PRECIPITATION. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CONFINE MINS TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE NEXT SYSTEM
BRUSHES PAST TO THE SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AND WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD
ADVECTION GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW ZERO CELSIUS ARE PROGGED
OVER THE AREA. WILL THUS NEED DEEP MIXING TO REACH HIGHS IN THE 50S
FRIDAY...THEN CLOUD COVER TO MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS GENERALLY DEPICTED PASSING
TO THE NORTH AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FAR NORTH. OTHERWISE...IMPROVING MODEL
CONSISTENCY...BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS...SHOW 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COOLING TO ZERO TO 4 BELOW BY SUNDAY SUPPORT WELL BELOW
NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE 50S MAY BE TOO
OPTIMISTIC...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS.
LIKEWISE...CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD POTENTIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING
OF PASSING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...LOWS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE 30S.

NEXT WEEK...A CYCLONIC NW FLOW WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES AND
REINFORCING SURFACE COLD FRONTS SETS UP OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL
FEATURE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
CHALLENGES WITH THE CRITICAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PASSING
SHORTWAVES MAKES THIS A LOW PREDICTABILITY PATTERN THIS FAR OUT. FOR
NOW...THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS IN THE MODEL BLENDS TO PLACE LOW
CHANCE POPS OVER MAINLY THE NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND
THEN MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER CHANCES FOR TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND
TUESDAY NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...THAT COULD LIMIT MIDWEEK HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 30S OVER AT LEAST THE NORTH AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 20S FOR
LOWS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 00Z/17 AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION.
AFT 00Z/17 MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CIGS. AFT 12Z/17 CLEARING WILL COMMENCE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. ..08..

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

1033 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE RESPONDED A FEW DEGREES SINCE THE
OVERNIGHT MINS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ANOTHER LOWERING OF MAX TEMPERATURES BY A FEW MORE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CHANGING
MUCH TODAY AND TONIGHT. 50S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL KEEP MVFR
CIGS OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TODAY. THERE IS A NARROW
BAND OF IFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN IOWA WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE WAS AS
FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THESE LOW CIGS COULD SAG SOUTH INTO THE
HWY 30 CORRIDOR YET THIS MORNING. THE IFR CIGS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH VSBYS IN THE 3 TO 5SM
RANGE. THE LOWER CIGS SHOULD LIFT ABOVE 1000 FT BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CEILING TRENDS LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE 06Z MODELS RUNS SUGGESTING SOME CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR NOW MAINTAINED CIGS AROUND 3000 FT
AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z AND WAIT TO SEE IF LATER RUNS
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FASTER CLEARING. IF THERE IS SOME CLEARING
OVERNIGHT THEN THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

845 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 842 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CHANGING
MUCH TODAY AND TONIGHT. 50S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...DLF
SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DLF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

1213 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2013

...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

At 00z Wednesday -22c 500mb low was located near the four corners
region. This was near the based of an upper level trough that
extended from the southwest United States to the western Great
Lakes. A 500mb ridge axis extended from south central Canada into
the Pacific Northwest. At the 700mb level temperatures this
morning across the central plains ranged from -10c at North Platte
to -1c at Dodge City to +3c at Amarillo. At the 850mb level a
pools of higher dewpoints were observed across southern Nebraska
and northern Kansas with temperatures ranging from +4c at Dodge
City to -1c at North Platte and Omaha. Satellite loop also
indicating some lower cloud cover was occurring in this area of
higher 850mb dewpoints earlier this morning with Goodland
reporting a cloud bases at 3600ft and Hays reporting clouds at
4100ft. At the surface an area of high pressure was located over
southeast Wyoming with light winds near the surface ridge axis
that extending southeast of the high into western Kansas.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 153 PM
CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

To start off with, I deliberated over low temperatures quite a bit
for tonight, and the resultant freeze and frost hazards. Model
guidance varies quite a bit, and this difference seems to be
centered around how fast some mid and high clouds will intrude.
Have settled upon using the HRRR and RUC models, which are a bit
cooler than then NAM, ECMWF, and GFS models. In the end, there
could be a small area that freezes tonight in our northwest zones,
namely Trego, Ellis, Scott, Lane and Ness counties, where a freeze
warning will be posted from 4 am to 9 am CDT. The 32F degree mark
may be tricky in Scott county, if the mid level clouds get there
before the diurnal cooling off occurs, they may hit 33F or 34F very
briefly around 09-10Z. To the south, surrounding the Freeze
Warning, mid 30s seem likely and a frost advisory is in place from 4
am to 9 am CDT, with widespread frost mentioned. Even one more tier
of counties southward will have patchy frost mentioned late, but
without an advisory. Down along most of the Oklahoma state
boundary, clouds will be entering there sooner, and thus lows in the
upper 30s will extend along most of that stretch.

An upper wave, open in nature, will cross from New Mexico into
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. The upper synoptic lift may be just
enough to kick off a few rain showers across our southern half of
the CWA, but only slight chances seem justified since no surface
boundary is present, and the lower layers will be cool. With
clouds, some scattered showers, and cold air advection, max temps
will struggle to get out of the 50s. Current forecast max temps
range from 57F in Syracuse, to 60F in Medicine Lodge. I did not
change the forecast highs, as they seemed reasonable. The other
weather parameter worth noting is winds will not be too strong, as
they have been of late. The high pressure will produce northwest
winds around 10 mph in the morning, which will shift to the west by
afternoon, still blow in the 10 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

Relatively dry and sunny conditions are expected Thursday due to
transient mid level shortwave ridging. Cold temperatures in the mid
to upper 30`s are most likely during the morning while abundant
insolation should allow warming into the 60`s by early afternoon.

a sharp mid to upper level baroclinic zone associated with a
strongly positively tilted trough and 300 mb level polar will jet
have create sensible weather impacts for Friday. As the upper trough
approaches and sharpens by Friday morning, the mid level baroclinic
zone will strengthen causing frontogenesis and associated lift
ageostrophic lifting. GFS is very similar to the ECMWF with respect
to most mass fields with this system, and shows a continuously
sloping intense frontogenetic profile from above 850 mb level near
medicine lodge to near 500 mb across NW Kansas. This cold system
aloft appears warm enough in the boundary layer to expect phase
change to all rain at the surface. GFS and GEM are the coldest of
the models, only allowing for temperatures to reach the upper 40`s
across western Kansas by the afternoon.

Precipitation chances have been increased to the likely category for
Friday morning with a rapid tapering in the afternoon as the upper
trough transitions to a subsident northwest flow across central
Kansas by Friday night. Saturday morning will have potential to be
cold again (even with frost) if winds and clearing conditions are
favorable, but yet uncertain considering it is still at a 96 hour
forecast timestep.

The remainder of the forecast period through early next week is for
and only slowly moderating surface temperatures toward normal for
mid October, as northwest flow aloft becomes established aloft and
high pressure dominates the central Rockies into the southern
plains.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

00Z Model runs continue to indicate increasing clouds across
western Kansas overnight. Latest bufr soundings suggest cloud
bases will between 3000ft and 4000ft AGL at HYS with 5000ft to
8000ft ft AGL at DDC and GCK. These VFR cigs are forecast to linger
across western Kansas through late day as an upper level trough
moves east across the central high plains. Northwest winds at
10kts or less will gradually back to the west by evening as an
area of high pressure at the surface moves across western Kansas.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 36 65 39 50 / 10 10 40 70
GCK 34 64 39 51 / 10 10 40 70
EHA 38 64 37 50 / 0 10 30 60
LBL 36 66 39 51 / 0 10 40 70
HYS 35 63 39 52 / 10 10 30 60
P28 38 67 42 54 / 10 0 40 70

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
this morning FOR KSZ046-061>065-074>079.

FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-
043>045.

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

247 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS. MAX T HAS LIKELY ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN THE EASTERN PAR OF
THE CWA AND LOCATIONS IN THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND NEAR THE TN BORDER
WILL PROBABLY ONLY CLIMB ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES AT THE MOST.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE A BIT IN THE EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CWA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS EASTERN KY WITH
TRACE OR GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL SO FAR OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH...IF THAT. THE SHORT TERM MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR POINT
TOWARD THE NEXT WAVE NOW OVER MIDDLE AND WESTERN TN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE SW PART OF THE ARE IN PARTICULAR.
WITH THE DENSE CLOUD COVER SO FAR...TEMPS WERE RUNNING BEHIND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THEIR CLIMB THIS MORNING. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HOURLY TEMPS AS WELL AS MAX T WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD. THE INCOMING MET MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS CHANGE
AS WELL.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SKIRT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CWA...COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY...BUT REMAINING VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. IN
FACT...MOST STATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ARE NOT
EVEN PICKING UP ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. AS SUCH...EXPECT SHOWERS TO
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT IN NATURE. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIP
INTENSIFYING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TIME HOURS...AS THE LINE
MAKES IT/S WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DON/T EXPECT MORE THAN A
QUARTER INCH OF ACCUMULATION BY 6Z TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT FOR WHICH THIS PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL PUSH
INTO EASTERN KY BY 18Z TODAY. AS IT PASSES...PLACES ACROSS CENTRAL
KY...AND POSSIBLY OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...CAN EXPECT SOME BRIEF
CLEARING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. HOWEVER...BY 0Z THIS EVENING...THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...PIVOTING SOUTHWARD
BUT MAKING NO EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THIS WILL KEEP A PULL OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION...AND ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO ALLOW LIKELY SHOWERS TO CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE CWA...MAINLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FRINGES OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT WILL THEN FINALLY CONTINUE TO THE SE STARTING
12Z THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO FINALLY TAKE IT/S PLACE
ACROSS STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE LAST OF THE PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SKIES CLEARING A COUPLE HOURS
BEHIND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEING FELT ACROSS THE FAR
EAST WHERE THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF THE LONGEST. WITH
THE COLD FRONT STALLING AND PIVOTING OVERNIGHT...CLEARING WILL NOT
BE AS FAST TO COME AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
FAR NW SECTION OF THE CWA...WHERE /AS MENTIONED ABOVE/ THE SOUTHWARD
PIVOTING WILL BRING IN A BRIEF TIME OF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE
MOVES BACK IN. LOWS HERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...IN THE UPPER 40S.
AS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW...RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS...DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM THE
STALLED FRONT WILL STICK AROUND LONGER AND THUS PREVENT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FROM MOVING IN. ONCE FRONT STARTS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR DESCENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT
WED OCT 16 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF A
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
LATER THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A QUICK GLANCE AT THE LATEST ECMWF
SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME GROWING CONSENSUS AS IT HAS BACKED
OFF ITS MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z VERSION OF THE TROUGH. THE DEPARTURE OF A
SMALL...BUT POTENT WAVE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED WILL LEAVE
BEHIND FAST...AND RATHER QUIET...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEP TROUGH PUSHES
EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND SWEEPS OVER THE AREA. THE BULK OF ITS
ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS
FALL IN ITS WAKE THROUGHOUT THE OHIO VALLEY. VARIOUS WEAKER WAVES
WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE REGION IN GENERAL FAST AND FLAT FLOW.
SOME AMPLIFICATION WILL TAKE PLACE LATER MONDAY AS MORE ENERGY POURS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE DEEPER MID CONTINENTAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE
RECENT TROUBLES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
RESERVE JUDGMENT ON INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS AND FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE EXTENDED.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RELATIVELY DRY...IF SOMEWHAT COOL...
EXTENDED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA UP TO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. A DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH THE QPF MAINLY
MISSING US TO THE NORTH AND ALSO SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
POPS IN FOR A SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROPA WITH THIS. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...THOUGH THE NEXT FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE CWA ON TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RESURGENCE OF THE BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN DECENT ENOUGH GIVEN THE COMPROMISE
PREFERRED ABOVE WITH LITTLE POP OR SKY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. AGAIN
WENT WITH SOME SMALL RIDGE AND VALLEY ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS AS WELL AS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

A COLD FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH IFR AND AT TIMES
LOWER CIGS RECENTLY REPORTED WEST OF AN SJS TO CPF TO IOB LINE. THIS
INCLUDES ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER
EASTERN KY OVERNIGHT AND PIVOT SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BETWEEN 2Z AND 9Z A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP
CHANCES IS EXPECTED WITH ANY IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS INTO THE VFR RANGE
SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT WAVE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND CIGS TO IFR OR EVEN TO AIRPORT MINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1129 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT
WED OCT 16 2013

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KY...WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KY THROUGH THE DAY. A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO INCH
IT/S WAY TOWARD EASTERN KY...WITH A FEW ISOLATED RETURNS POPPING UP
ACROSS THE JKL CWA BORDER. SO FAR THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
LIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND BEGIN
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES...INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY. AS OF
NOW...MAIN CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD COME IN THE FORM OF LOWERING
MVFR CIGS RATHER THAN VISIBILITY. FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER EASTERN
KY OVERNIGHT AND PIVOT SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1011 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND
THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER
SATURDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: WE MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLD CVR AND POPS.
WITH CLD CVR...WE INCREASED CLD CVR OVR DOWNEAST AREAS BASED ON
OBSCD CLGS WITH FOG OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA. WITH POPS...WE
INCREASED TMG OF SHWRS ABT AN HR OR TWO IN THE 06-12Z TMG. LATEST
18Z GFS AND 00Z HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY RAPID PROGRESSION...AT
ABT 50 TO 60 MPH...OF THE RNFL CURRENTLY OVR NRN NY STATE AND XTRM
SW QB...REACHING FAR SW PTNS OF THE FA BY 2-3 AM EDT AND ECLIPSING
FAR NE PTNS OF THE FA BY 12Z. LASTLY WE LOWERED OVRNGT LOWS A
DEG OR TWO...SPCLY NW PTNS OF THE FA WITH SOME CLRG RESULTING IN
IN WEAK RADITIONAL COOLING. THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE MID CLD CANOPY
SHOULD REACH WRN PTNS OF THE FA WITH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS OR SO...
STEADYING TEMPS ATTM. REST OF OVRNGT LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE FA STILL
LOOK REASONABLE ATTM.

630 PM UPDATE: POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR AN INITIALLY SLOWER ONSET FOR
THE LATE EVE INTO THE OVRNGT HRS...THEN MERGING TO THE CATEGORICAL
POPS SLATED FOR FRI FROM THE AFTN FCST UPDATE. THIS CHG WAS MADE
UTILIZING THE POPS FROM QPF TOOL. OTHERWISE...MINOR CHGS WERE MADE
TO SKY CVR THIS EVE AND TO FCST HRLY TEMPS BASED ON 6 PM SAT
IMAGERY AND SFC OBS.

ORGNL DISC: LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
TO SOUTHERN MAINE TONIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL THEN INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE.
THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH AN AREA OF RAIN
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS ENDING IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DOWNEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH...TO THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60 DOWNEAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING DRAMATICALLY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S. A TRANSIENT
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SATURDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION. THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR SATURDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER DUE TO
STRATOCUMULUS IN NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING
WITH A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE GENERAL TREND
WILL BE SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWER MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTH OF HOULTON DUE TO MODEST INSTABILITY UNDER H700. HIGHS WILL
BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN ONTARIO AND APPROACH LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AM EXPECTING CLOUDS TO INCREASE WELL
BEFORE DAWN AND WILL GO WITH LOW TO MID 40S. HAVE INCREASED THE
POPS TO LIKELY FOR SUNDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOT HIGH. TEND TO FAVOR A COMPROMISE TOWARDS THE 17/00Z
ECMWF WHICH MOVES THE TROUGH OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH MAY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MAINE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. INCREASED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE GOING INTO TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. THESE SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS QUEBEC. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSES NORTH WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL PROGRESS
SOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND DOWNEAST THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY TONIGHT...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO
IFR/LIFR LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

SHORT TERM: VFR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR TEMPO IFR LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR
FOR BGR AND BHB IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER
NORTH OF HUL. MVFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG AND RAIN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WAVE HTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 6 FEET IN THE OUTER
WATERS. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT SCA WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6
AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

1018 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
ON MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...CLOUD COVER WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
CLEAR SPOTS THAT ARE NOW CLOSING UP. STRATUS IS HOLDING TIGHT AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREA OF RAIN OFFSHORE WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST TODAY. ADDED HIGHER
POPS FOR ISLANDS AND OFFSHORE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARM FNT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
A DREARY START TO THE DAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NEARLY SATURATED
LOW LVLS WILL BRING STRATUS INTO COASTAL AREAS EARLY. WEAK WAA
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME DZ IN THESE AREAS THRU
SUNRISE.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY HELP LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THE LOW
LVLS CLOUDS...LEAVING MOSTLY HIGH AND MID LVL OVERCAST. ENOUGH
PEEKS OF SUN AND INSOLATION WILL HELP TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
WEAK LOW PRES SPINNING OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT NWD THRU THE
DAY...AND MAY BACK SOME SHRA TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. HAVE SOME LOW
POP FOR THE AFTERNOON THERE...WHILE GRADUALLY INCREASING POP FROM
THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE SHRA HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN THE
W...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF.

LOW PRES IS NOT REALLY DEEPENING...AS PARENT S/WV IS SHEARING OUT
AND LIFTING QUICKLY NEWD WITH TIME. AS SUCH...NOT SEEING MUCH
MECHANISM OUT THERE FOR WIDESPREAD RNFL. TRENDING POP DOWNWARDS
EXCEPT IN THE MTNS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND PROXIMITY TO
FORCING WILL SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA. WITH CLOUDS AND
PCPN AROUND THE AREA...LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

FNT QUICKLY CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THU...AS S/WV TROF AXIS PASSES
E. S/WV RIDGING FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE...SO DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING
ALOFT SHOULD CLEAR OUT SHRA AND HELP TO BREAK UP CLOUDS LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY...WITH SRN NH AND SWRN ME MAKING A RUN INTO THE 70S WITH
ENOUGH SUN. TRAILING S/WV LIFTING OUT OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY MAY
SPREAD CLOUDS BACK INTO SWRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY THU.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS WE END OUT
THE WORK WEEK.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS
TO THE REGION MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE PRECIPITATION
MAY LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING IN COASTAL
STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
MOVE IN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCT SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AFTER 00Z.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE PERSISTENT
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

UPDATE...HANES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

725 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE SHRA HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN THE
W...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS WE END OUT
THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING IN COASTAL
STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
MOVE IN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCT SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AFTER 00Z.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

LEGRO/JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

529 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE SHRA HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN THE
W...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS WE END OUT
THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING IN COASTAL
STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
MOVE IN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCT SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AFTER 00Z.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

LEGRO/JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

237 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WARM FNT LIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING A DREARY START TO THE
DAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LVLS WILL BRING
STRATUS INTO COASTAL AREAS EARLY. WEAK WAA ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME DZ IN THESE AREAS THRU SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE SHRA HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z IN THE
W...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND SPC
WRF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS WE END OUT
THE WORK WEEK.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

OVER THE WEEKEND...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING IN COASTAL
STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TODAY...BEFORE MVFR CIGS
MOVE IN FROM THE W AS COLD FNT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCT SHRA MAY
MOVE INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY AFTER 00Z.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE WATERS.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

1203 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TWIN CITIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TO
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. MUCH COOLER WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

TWEAKED POPS AND REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO ANY THUNDER THREAT GIVEN
250J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOW EXITING NE LOWER PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERALL CLOUDY...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
DRY SLOT CLIP THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A BRIEF
TIME...BEFORE WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND MOISTURE FILTER BACK INTO THE
PICTURE LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE LATE THIS EVENING AS OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES...BUT WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S LATE TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SWATH OF RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA ATTM...AND WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 03Z.
MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE CAN REDEVELOP SOME CONVECTION
WITH APPROACHING DRY SLOT AND COLD FRONT. THINGS NOT LOOKING GOOD
AT ALL REGARDING THAT SCENARIO...WITH NO SIGNS OF CONVECTION
UPSTREAM. WHILE LATEST RUC CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SKIRTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SHORT
TERM RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SAID DRY SLOT/STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WILL
MAINTAIN THUNDER MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO REMOVE
IT FROM THE FORECAST BY THE NEXT UPDATE IF THINGS DON`T GET GOING
SOON. OTHERWISE LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING PERIODS
OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 50S...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUBTLE
INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IN THE GRAND
SCHEME OF THINGS...QUITE TYPICAL FOR OCTOBER...WITH THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES BEING RAIN AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND LAKE EFFECT/WATERSPOUT ISSUES INTO WEDNESDAY. EARLY
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS PLACES A RATHER POTENT CLOSED LOW MEANDERING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...TAKING ON THE CLASSIC OCCLUDING CYCLONE
LOOK THE PAST 12 HOURS. A DISTINCT DRY SLOT IS JUST NOW PUNCHING
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES...WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE
(PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.1 INCHES) NOTED FLOWING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA RIGHT UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWS A NICE BATCH OF RAIN FINALLY WORKING EAST FROM WISCONSIN INTO
LAKE MICHIGAN AND BUMPING UP AGAINST THE NORTHWEST CWA...WITH A BIT
MORE NARROWED RAIN SHIELD EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND TO A
GREATER EXTENT THE WESTERN TENNESSEE/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THAT
NORTHERN RAIN SHIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT AXIS OF BOTH
LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND PRONOUNCED 850-500MB QG
UPWARD FORCING...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STUFF IS MORE TIED TO AN UPPER
JET STREAK/JET FORCING RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE BIG QUESTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS JUST WHAT TYPE OF
RAIN COVERAGE/AMOUNTS WE WILL END UP WITH. NO DOUBT THE CURRENT RAIN
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST JAUNT...SUGGESTING
GOING CATEGORICAL POPS ARE JUST FINE FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND
EASTERN UPPER. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS ACROSS NORTHEAST
LOWER AS THAT BAND MAY FIZZLE WITH TIME AS IT OUTRUNS THE BETTER
ASCENT WHILE A NOTABLE BREAK HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN LAKES. A BIT CONCERNED THIS BREAK MAY SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE DOWNWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER JET AND PROVIDE LESSER AMOUNTS
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...STILL BELIEVE JUST
ABOUT ALL FOLKS WILL END UP WITH SOME MEASURABLE RAINS AND
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS WANING GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY UPSTREAM ACTIVITY JUST YET. STILL LOOKING AT A QUITE STEEP PLUME
OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES (PUSHING 8C/KM) WORKING ACROSS IOWA/
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WHERE THERE IS SOME CLEARING ONGOING AND HINTS
OF CU DEVELOPMENT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE IF THINGS CAN GET
GOING IN ANOTHER FEW HOURS...BUT WILL OVERALL LOWER THE THUNDER
MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY (UP TO 500J/KG)
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE THERE ALONG THE DRY SLOT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE LACK OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...DRY
SLOT WILL END THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOWARD OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE LAKES TOWARD MORNING AS H8 TEMPS
COOL BACK TOWARD 3C.

OUR BETTER CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIP WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OPENS UP AND SLOWLY SLIDES OVERHEAD. NICE
SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY
SHOULD RESULT IN QUITE A FEW LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS...WITH
SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT ALSO POSSIBLE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL.
SHOULD SEE A WATERSPOUT THREAT FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE DEEPER VORTICITY AXIS PULLS OVERHEAD...WHILE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT/FORCING BOUNDARY CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN. LATEST
SZILAGYI NOMOGRAM PLOTS HIGHLIGHT THIS IDEA WELL AND PROBABLY WORTH
A MENTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

OVERVIEW: FOUR-WAVE LONG WAVE PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN
HEMISPHERE WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHINESS DEEPENING ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM
IN RESPONSE TO LONG-WAVE RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
DOWN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS AMPLIFIED RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST
PATTERN STILL ON TRACK TO GET "LOCKED IN" THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVEN TO TEN DAYS (AND BEYOND) LEADING TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED COOL
DOWN AND SLIDE INTO TRUE FALL FOR THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND A
SIZABLE PART OF EASTERN NOAM FOR THAT MATTER. IN FACT...A
SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN MAY BE IN THE WORKS AS A COUPLE POCKETS OF
FAIRLY COLD AIR GET DISLODGED FROM NRN CANADA AND SLIDE DOWN INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
(POSSIBLY LINKED TO ONGOING TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC). REGARDLESS...AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE A LITTLE
SNOW OR AT LEAST SOME SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS CWA DURING THE
COURSE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

IN THE SHORTER TERM...NO SNOW THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK
AS WE ARE JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH...YET. BUT WE DO HAVE A COUPLE SRN
STREAM WAVES TO WORRY ABOUT AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH. FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY (HANDLED IN THE SHORT TERM PART OF
THE FORECAST). NEXT PIECE OF SRN STREAM ENERGY/SHORT WAVE DIPPING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY AND FORECAST TO SWING UP THROUGH
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY. NOT A PARTICULARLY MOIST SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AND NO SUPPORTING TAP OF GULF MOISTURE. BUT IT IS A
DECENT WAVE LEADING TO A NICE SHOT OF QG-UPWARD FORCING MOVING
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
LOOKING TO OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. BUT NOT COMFORTABLE HAVING A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR THIS CWA ON THURSDAY AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME CHANCY POPS FOR THE S/SE HALF OF THE CWA PARTICULARLY DOWN
TOWARD SAGINAW BAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...BEHIND THURSDAYS SYSTEM...A BRIEF
LULL ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A WEDGE OF DRIER
AIR/SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND DOWNWARD QG FORCING. THAT
SAID...CERTAINLY ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TO WORRY ABOUT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWER PROSPECTS GIVEN H8 TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
0C. BUT IN TRYING TO FIND A LEAST ONE DRY FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL...THURSDAY NIGHT PROBABLY HAS THE BEST SHOT AND WILL
LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHINESS BEGINS TO DESCEND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BEGINNING WITH A SUBTLE COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. POSSIBILITIES FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT...ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUING LAKE INDUCED RAIN SHOWER POSSIBILITIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE START OF A RATHER UNSETTLED AND COOLER PERIOD
FOR THE GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (EXTENDED PERIODS)... AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHINESS/COLDER AIR CARVES OUT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CANADA AND DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER REINFORCING
PUSH OF YET COLDER AIR FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. BUT THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND THE GFS/EURO SOLUTIONS HAVE HAD
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES ON JUST HOW THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND HOW COLD
IT GETS. EURO HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO DRAG THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
AIR (COLD ENOUGH FOR THE MENTION OF SNOW) INTO THE GREAT LAKES UNTIL
NEXT WEEK...WHILE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH DRAGS -4C TO -6C H8 AIR INTO THE REGION
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY (USUALLY NEED AT LEAST -5C H8 TEMPS THIS TIME OF
YEAR TO SEE SNOW). THE OVERRIDING IDEA IN THE FORECAST WILL BE A
STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED (WET) WEATHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SNOW
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR INLAND AREAS EITHER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
(PER GFS COLDER IDEA) OR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF THE NEXT WEEK AS
SOME THE COLDEST AIR FINALLY GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION. HAVE NOT
ADDED THE MENTION OF SNOW TO THE FORECAST JUST YET HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY AND GIVEN THAT...AT LEAST RIGHT NOW...WHATEVER SNOW
WE MIGHT SEE LOOKS TRANSIENT AND FAIRLY LOW IMPACT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

MARGINAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR PLN AND APN...WITH MAINLY
MVFR CIGS FOR TVC AND MBL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE IN THE REGION WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. A SLUG OF LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MOVED UP THE
SPINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND MAY AFFECT MBL TONIGHT BY BRINGING
PERIODS OF CLEARING/VFR CIGS...BEFORE MVFR OVERCAST OVER WISCONSIN
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO RAMP UP FOR TVC/MBL LATE TONIGHT...AND FOR THE REMAINING TAF
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAKES...INITIALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN SWITCHING
SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AT VARIOUS INTERVALS...AND HAVE SIMPLY
CONTINUED THE GOING ADVISORY THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS...THOUGH ARGUABLY NOT ALL SPOTS WILL SEE CRITERIA ALL OF THE
TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPART INTO THURSDAY...LEAVING A PERIOD OF
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS...BEFORE SEVERAL MORE WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AREAS
TRACK NEARBY RIGHT ON INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS NO
BIG INDICATION THAN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF WIND OR WAVES WILL
OCCUR TROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-347>349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

UPDATE...NS
SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...NS
MARINE...LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GLASGOW MT

902 PM MDT THU OCT 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPDATE TO FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT RADAR AND SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS. CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SHOWERS IS
SCATTERED AROUND MUCH OF THE CWA AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM HRRR AND SREF HAS THIS PRECIPITATION
DECREASING AND MOSTLY GONE BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA. THIS AGREES WITH Q-VECTOR FORCING
DECLINING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AT THAT
TIME.

SO FAR PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN...EXCEPT FOR A
BIT OF GRAUPEL FROM THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE COLUMNS. THE FREEZING
LEVEL...HOWEVER... IS NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SOME SNOW MAY
BE SEEN LATER TONIGHT IN AREAS STILL RECEIVING PPT.

TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND THE REGION AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS EXTENSIVE
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

WINDS WILL PICK-UP A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 KTS AROUND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH
WYOMING. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY
TEMPER THE MIXING OF THESE WINDS A BIT. MARTIN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH THAT SIGNALED ITSELF WITH YESTERDAY/S RAINSHOWERS
CONTINUES TO DIG AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS PUT US
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW SMALL DISTURBANCES TO
OCCASIONALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

ONE IS MOVING THROUGH TODAY BRINGING LIGHT SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS
FROM THE NW. AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT...SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS
COULD SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN. WITH THE UPPER FEATURES DIGGING
THE TROUGH FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL HANG OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW AND/OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR EAST.

THE BIGGEST DISTURBANCE THEN APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN SASK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND ALLOW WARMER AIR TO
PUSH INTO NE MT. WITH 850 MB TEMPS REACHING 5 TO 10*C...SURFACE
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A GENERAL
PATTERN OF A LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A LONG WAVE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE LOCATED UNDER
A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE COOL
AIR UNDER THE TROUGH AND THE WARM AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
STRADDLE NORTH DAKOTA OR EASTERN MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE DOWN THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...NUDGING THE COOLER AIR TO THE WEST INTO NEMONT.
OVERRIDING MOISTURE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY AS
LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER THE RAIN COULD TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY
MONDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

BEYOND MONDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BECOME MILD
AS THE RIDGE MOVES THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH NORMAL VALUES...BUT DUE TO THE
NORTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL.
SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE AXIS OF A LARGE COLD ARCTIC TROUGH RUNS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO NUNAVUT. TO THE WEST
OF THIS...A LARGE RIDGE RUNS UP THE COAST OF THE CONUS THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST
MONTANA BEGINS WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO VERY LARGE AIR MASSES WITH
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST PROVIDING AN EXPRESS LANE FOR COLD AIR AND CREATING AN
WEST TO EAST WARM TO COLD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SATURDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE BOUNDARY/GRADIENT
WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH BEST CHANCES WILL BE TO THE EAST BUT SOME
OF THE SHOWERS ARE BOUND TO HIT THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY STILL SHOW HIGH CHANCE OF SOMETHING OVERRUNNING
THE BOUNDARY BUT TIMING IS VERY POOR AND QPF IS CURRENTLY LESS
THAN THE PRIOR TWO PERIODS.

MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...AT THIS POINT ENSEMBLES STILL HOLD TO
ROUGHLY A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT BEGIN TO EMBED POORLY TIMED
WAVES LARGER THAN THE TYPICAL SHORTWAVE WHICH ARE OUT OF PHASE
WITH EAST OTHER. 00Z EC ATTEMPTS TO BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THIS COULD EASILY MORPH AND CHANGE.
EXPECT ANYTHING FROM A TEMPORARY RISE IN TEMPS FROM A WEAK CHINOOK
EVENT AND RIDGE TO A COOL DOWN/ISOLATED SHOWER FROM ANY TROUGH.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SKEWED TOWARD CONS AND CLIMO PRODUCTS
WITH POPS BEING FAIRLY DRY UNTIL BETTER TIMING ON WAVES IS
AVAILABLE. GAH

.AVIATION...

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...THAT WILL BRING INCREASING MID-TO-LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY MORNING. INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10-15KT RANGE.
SCT/BLM

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

636 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER
THESE LOWER CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING...BUT HAVE FORECAST 05Z...AND WILL ADJUST AS NECESSARY IF
CLOUDS DON`T SHOW ANY SIGNS OF BREAKING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES WILL PREVAIL
OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT...FIRST IN SEVERAL WAVES WILL BE TRACKING FM DAKOTAS
INTO MINNESOTA SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE PROBABLY DECREASING AFT 06Z. 18Z RAP AND 12Z 4KM WRF AND
SOME HOP WRF MEMBERS SUGGESTED SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP COULD CLIP
NERN ZONES EARLY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING TOWARD KS BY MORNING COULD
SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD SRN AND ESPECIALLY SWRN ZONES
BY MORNING. THE VARIABLE CLOUDS...SOME WIND AND INITIALLY MODEST
DWPTS WL LEAD TO KEEPING MOST LOWS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO FRIDAY...KEPT IN SMALL POPS EXTREME SOUTH DUE TO
SRN WAVE...ALTHOUGH APPEARS BULK OF ANY PRECIP COULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH. ALSO SHARP MID LVL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO ERN NEBRASKA
TOWARD 00Z COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS H5 TEMPS IN
MINUS UPPER 20S C MOVE OVER AREA. SPREAD SMALL CHANCES A BIT
FARTHER S. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTED NAM IN DOWNSLOPE MOISTURE LACKING
FLOW BUT THIS COULD FACILITATE FUTURE CHANGES. DID TRIM TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THEM ON HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.

AFTER TROUGH PASSES FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMING SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY.
KEPT FORECAST DRY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME NEED IN LATER FORECASTS. TRENDED MOST MAX
TEMPERATURES UPWARD BOTH DAYS TO REFLECT FORECAST H85 TEMPS...BUT
DIDN/T MIX TO THAT DEPTH DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS.

CHERMOK

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR EAST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DROP
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COLD AIRMASS WILL
REACH...HOWEVER THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE COLD FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOME WEAK
RECOVERY BY THURSDAY MAY BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

KERN

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

1222 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

OUR MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED AND
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW RISING. THEREFORE...THE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE VERY CHILLY TONIGHT AND FROST MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
IN SOME AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...AS ONE DECK OF
MID CLOUDS CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...WHILE MAINLY THINNER/HIGHER CIRRUS CONTINUES INCREASING INTO
AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. IN BETWEEN...MOST PLACES
BETWEEN I-80 AND THE STATE LINE ARE ESSENTIALLY CLEAR AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH LIGHT BUT STEADY BREEZES HAVE LIKELY PRECLUDED
TRULY WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT IN MANY AREAS...PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ISSUED YESTERDAY
WERE JUSTIFIED ACROSS MOST AFFECTED AREAS...WITH A FEW LOWS SO FAR
THIS MORNING CONSISTING OF 31 AT LEXINGTON AIRPORT...32 AT
RAVENNA...HOLDREGE AIRPORT AND 4WNW PLAINVILLE KS...AND 33 AT
HASTINGS AIRPORT. WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE...ITS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY THAT FROST WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE
HAMILTON/YORK AND JEWELL/MITCHELL COUNTY AREAS...BUT GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ARE AT LEAST IN THE BALLPARK OF SUPPORTING FROST AT THIS
TIME WILL DEFER TO ONCOMING DAY SHIFT TO FORMALLY PUT THESE
HEADLINES TO REST. ONCE ALL MORNING TEMPERATURE REPORTS COME
IN...DECISIONS WILL ALSO BE MADE REGARDING WHICH ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES BESIDES VALLEY/GREELEY ARE DEEMED INELIGIBLE FOR FUTURE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...AS WE WILL LIKELY BE ADDING AT LEAST A
FEW.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

COMPARED TO THE PAST 48 HOURS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FOLLOWED BY
FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...THESE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE GOING TO
BE A BENIGN CHANGE OF PACE...WITH ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SUSTAINED BREEZES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED 12
MPH AT MOST. HOWEVER...DUE TO FROST/FREEZE SENSITIVITIES THIS TIME
OF YEAR...SKY COVER/CLOUD TRENDS HAVE TAKEN ON AN ENHANCED
FORECAST FOCUS...GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED EFFECT OF CLOUD COVER ON
TEMPERATURES. AS IT IS TURNING OUT...PARTS OF THE CWA ARE GOING TO
FREEZE AND/OR FROST FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY THIS MORNING...WHILE OTHER
PARTS OF THE AREA MAY ACTUALLY SEE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FROST/FREEZE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INSTEAD.

07Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOCAL AREA POSITIONED
BETWEEN A 1003 MILLIBAR LOW THAT HAS DEPARTED WELL EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...AND A 1025 MILLIBAR HIGH CENTERED MUCH CLOSER TO
HOME OVER THE NEB/KS/CO BORDER AREA. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING TO RELAX...WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS MOST OF THIS
CWA HAVE FINALLY EASED TO 10 MPH OR LESS...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SPEEDS STILL SHOWING UP NOW AND THEN MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEAST. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
REVEAL THAT THE CWA IS POSITIONED ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH A
BROAD...SEVERELY POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM THE 4-CORNERS
AREA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND UP INTO EASTERN CANADA. ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS...A 105+ KT JET STREAK IS
EVIDENT AT 300MB OVER THE KS/NEB BORDER.

THE FOLLOWING PARAGRAPH FOCUSES SOLELY ON EXISTING FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES THIS MORNING...THE REAL HEADACHE THIS MORNING LIES WITH
CLOUD COVER TRENDS PER IR AND 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE. ON A
POSITIVE NOTE FOR CURRENT FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES...THE EXPANSIVE
DECK OF LOW STRATUS THAT RULED MOST OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY
CONTINUES TO STEADILY ERODE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST...WHICH
MAKES IT NOW LOOK LIKE MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF CLEAR SKIES...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FROST FORMATION TO
COMMENCE. IN FACT...THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY ALREADY WELL-UNDERWAY
IN/NEAR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE SITES SUCH AS
LEXINGTON/MCCOOK HAVE ALREADY TUMBLED INTO THE LOW 30S THUS
VERIFYING THE EXISTING FREEZE WARNING. HOWEVER...ON THE FLIP
SIDE...PORTIONS OF THE ORIGINAL FROST ADVISORY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEMS TO BE FACING A GREATER OBSTACLE TO
VERIFY...AS FOLLOWING SHORTLY BEHIND THE VACATING LOW STRATUS IS A
SOUTHWARD-SINKING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CENTERED BETWEEN 8-10K
FEET...WHICH HAS ALREADY BRUSHED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST ROUGHLY THE
HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THESE MID CLOUDS SHOULD
HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTHERN HALF TO ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH THESE AREAS
LIKELY HEADED FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOWER DECK. THE NET RESULT...AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS AT
09Z/4AM...IS THAT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WERE CANCELLED FOR 5
COUNTIES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHILE AT LEAST FOR NOW WILL LET
THE REMAINING 23 COUNTIES STAND AS-IS PER ORIGINAL ISSUANCE...AND
TAKE ANOTHER LOOK FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IN A FEW HOURS.

TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST...RIGHT OFF THE BAT
DECIDED TO SLIP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES INTO FAR NORTHERN
AREAS UP AROUND ORD/GREELEY PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR UNDER THE INVADING MID-DECK...BUT
THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. BEYOND SUNRISE...ANTICIPATE
A COOLISH BUT SEASONABLY PLEASANT DAY UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.
ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA
GRADUALLY EJECTS EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WHILE ANY SPOTTY RAIN FROM THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY OUR KS ZONES COULD SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING EAST-NORTHEAST FROM
THIS SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...THE ALREADY-PRESENT MID DECK SLIPPING
INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NEB ZONES...BUT THEN ACCORDING TO 700
MILLIBAR RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS FROM THE RAP/NAM...SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE AWAY OR SCATTER OUT BY THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS.
SO...THE NET RESULT IS BEST PUT AS VARIABLE CLOUD COVER...AS
NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD GENERALLY START OUT RATHER CLOUDY BUT SEE
INCREASING SUN WITH TIME...WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS GENERALLY DO THE
OPPOSITE AND SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH TIME. THESE CLOUD COVER
TRENDS WILL BE TOUGH TO CAPTURE IN HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS...AND
PLENTY OF UPDATES ARE LIKELY. OTHERWISE...AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SINKS SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...BREEZES WILL
AVERAGE 10-12 MPH FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ALL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY TWEAKED SLIGHTLY PER A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE AND RAP TEMPS...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A
REMARKABLY UNIFORM RANGE ACROSS THE CWA WITH ALL AREAS TOPPING OUT
BETWEEN 56-59.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE MAIN STORY ALOFT IS THAT THE
CURRENT SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TROUGH AXIS WILL GRADUALLY BE
REPLACED BY A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS.
THIS IS BECAUSE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN TROUGHS...AS THE
DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN KS AT SUNSET DEPARTS EASTWARD
INTO MO...WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE AREA ONLY REACHES AN AXIS FROM NORTHWEST CO TO NORTH DAKOTA BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH AM EXPECTING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
WHOLE TO AVERAGE CLEARER THAN THIS ONGOING NIGHT HAS BEEN...THERE
IS AGAIN GOING TO BE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXCEPT THIS TIME SOLELY
OF THE MID-UPPER VARIETY. FOR ONE...MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY START THE EVENING WITH LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...WHILE LATER IN THE NIGHT...MAINLY NORTHERN
AREAS COULD SEE PASSING BATCHES OF CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPSTREAM WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8
MPH...BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO
NORTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTLE PASSING TROUGH AXIS. AS FOR
LOW TEMPS...ONCE AGAIN PASSING CLOUDS COULD POSE ISSUES...BUT FOR
NOW STUCK VERY CLOSE TO A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND...WHICH PUTS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA DOWN BETWEEN 33-36 DEGREES...WITH THE
TYPICALLY FAVORED DAWSON-TO-VALLEY COUNTY CORRIDOR MOST FAVORED TO
SLIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. OBVIOUSLY THESE LOWS ARE AGAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF FROST AND/OR FREEZE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ONGOING COMPLICATIONS/UNCERTAINTY THIS MORNING REGARDING LOW
TEMPS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROST
ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS FOR NOW...NOT ONLY TO AVOID HEADLINE
CONFUSION...BUT ALSO TO ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO IDENTIFY COUNTIES THAT
COULD NOW BE RULED INELIGIBLE FROM FUTURE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
BASED ON WHAT HAPPENS THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

STARTING OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...THERE SHOULD BE
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC U.S. AND CANADIAN COAST
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES SITUATED
OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST A BIT
BUT THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD STILL BE SITTING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH BY NEXT TUESDAY...PUTTING US IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SHOULD BE
JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE CWA WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. THE COOLER AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE TROUGH A WAYS AND
THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUITE NICE...JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THE NEXT IN THE PROGRESSION OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES NOTED ABOVE IS
THEN SLATED TO APPROACH THE PLAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SOLUTION IN TAKING ONE
WAVE NORTH AND EAST OF US AND DIGGING ANOTHER WAVE TO OUR WEST AND
THEN SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS. INTERESTING TO RUN A TIME HEIGHT SECTION
COMPARING THE GRAND ISLAND AREA TO THE PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS AREA IN
TERMS OF MID LEVEL FORCING. THE NAM IS ONLY PRODUCING 1-2 UBARS PER
SEC OF OMEGA OVER KGRI AT 12Z FRIDAY WHILE AT KPHG IT IS GENERATING
10-12 UBARS PER SEC. THE GFS HAS SIMILAR RESULTS FOR OUR SOUTHERN
CWA WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE GFS HAS A LITTLE LESS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE
COLUMN...WHILE THE NAM IS SATURATED ALL THE WAY FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE TO 300 MB. THE EC FORECAST SOUNDING IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS AS
IT IS NOT QUITE SATURATED UP TO 700MB. NEITHER THE GFS OR EC IS
SHOWING THE LOWER PORTION BECOMING SATURATED BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
FRIDAY BUT I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED OF THE SCENARIO WHERE SNOW
FALLING FROM ABOVE MOISTENS AND COOLS THE LOWER COLUMN UNTIL IT
REACHES SATURATION. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING IN THE CWA. WILL NOT INCLUDE SNOW IN THE GRIDS
FOR NOW AS I ONLY HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING FORECASTED TO
BE AROUND 37 OR 38 DEGREES IN THE KANSAS PART OF OUR CWA...BUT IT
WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND THESE
WILL NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

THE COOLER AIR WILL THEN MAKE IT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND BY
FRIDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY. BUT
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL ONLY LAST A DAY AS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. WILL
LEAVE REST OF FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO DISTURBANCES RIDING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
MAY GIVE US AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

SATELLITE SHOWS THAT THE BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE KGRI TERMINAL
AREA HAS BEEN THINNING OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ON
AND OFF DURING THE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...JCB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

907 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND THESE
WILL NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE UPCOMING PERIOD WILL BE
MARKED BY MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AVIATION WEATHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. DESPITE PASSING BATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CENTERED
NEAR/ABOVE 9000 FT...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT...AND ESSENTIALLY ZERO RISK OF PRECIPITATION. AS FOR
SURFACE WINDS...SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE AT/BELOW 11KT FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THE ADVERTISED DIRECTION OF
240 DEGREES AFTER 00Z REPRESENTING AN AVERAGE DIRECTION FOR THE
NIGHT.

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

647 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

BUMPED UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FOR FRIDAY AND THESE
WILL NEED TO BE RAISED EVEN MORE IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ062>064-
075>077-085>087.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ060-061-
072>074-082>084.

KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ007-019.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-017-
018.

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

550 AM CDT WED OCT 16 2013