Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 10/17/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
940 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.SHORT TERM...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT LOWER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT...MAINLY
ON THE PLAINS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER
IN THE MORNING AS THE APPROACHING CLOUD BAND SHOULD BE SPREADING
ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING. NO CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING FOR
THURSDAY...WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE MORNING BUT THE LIFT COMES
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. CEILINGS COULD BE LOWERING IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE OF NEEDING INSTRUMENT APPROACHES TO
KDEN AFTER 21Z. MORE LIKELY THAT IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL
SOMETIME IN THE EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS CFWA. STILL SOME CLOUDS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT GENERATING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING SHORTLY AS
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWEST. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO PREVAIL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY CHILLY DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING OROGRAPHICS. THOUGH MOST OF THE MID LEVEL QG
ASCENT STAYS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT TO
INCREASE POPS A BIT FURTHER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
EVENING. AS FOR FOOTHILLS...APPEARS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN...WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE
HIGHER AREAS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. ACROSS PLAINS...COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION DURING THE EVENING. CROSS
SECTIONS KEEP UPSLOPE FAIRLY SHALLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT
INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ENOUGH TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS GOING. DID INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS ZONE 38 WHERE THE
GREATER LIFT WILL BE. THERE COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER ALONG THE HIGHER AREAS OF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE.
OVERALL CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS SEEM REASONABLE...IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SHORT WAVE RIDING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES OVER THE STATE. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS AT MID-
LEVELS DUE TO STRONG CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE WIND FIELD AND A
STRONG NORTHERLY JET ALOFT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD PICK UP A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL WHICH MAY
ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONES 33...34 AND 35 STARTING
A 9 PM TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. FOUR TO 8 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS. AT LOW LEVELS...
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE CONTINUING ON THE PLAINS WHICH WILL ALSO GIVE
THE MOISTENING AIRMASS JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIFT. ON THE
PLAINS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE EVENING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN. THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT MOSTLY LESS THAN 2 INCHES EXCEPT
ON THE PALMER DIVIDE.
ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE STATE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY. MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OUT OF THE STATE BY NOON...EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. BEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ALL SHOW
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS COLORADO AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE
DE-AMPLIFIES AND EXTENDS TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE STATE WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION...NORTHEAST WINDS CURRENTLY AT AREA AIRPORTS. BOTH NAM
AND HRRR SHOW WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z THEN
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING SPEEDS TO REMAIN LESS THAT 10 KTS.
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AFTER 15Z THURSDAY BEHIND A PASSING WEAK
COLD FRONT...THEN NORTHEAST BY AROUND 18Z. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING
THE DAY...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10000 FEET. A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
VFR TO PREVAIL.
HYDROLOGY...MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY THE
EVENING. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO NOON MDT FRIDAY
FOR COZ033>035.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...D-L
LONG TERM....DANKERS
AVIATION/UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
820 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 815 AM EDT...HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED DATABASE TO ACCOUNT FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE...WHICH IS OCCURRING FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL
REGION EXTENDING INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENE MTNS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA
THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 06Z GUIDANCE AND HOURLY RUC GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOWLY TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPECTATION REMAINS THE BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLOW RETREAT OF THE CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH IS EXPECTED.
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BKN-OVC CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT
3500 TO 7000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESP FOR KGFL/KALB. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM THIS MORNING AND JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SCT SOME
SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND PASSING CIRRUS. AS A RESULT...SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...KL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
732 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 06Z GUIDANCE AND HOURLY RUC
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOWLY TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPECTATION REMAINS THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLOW RETREAT OF THE CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. BKN-OVC CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR AT
3500 TO 7000 FT...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ESP FOR KGFL/KALB. WINDS WILL BE
NEARLY CALM THIS MORNING AND JUST LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. BY LATE IN THE DAY...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT
AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST SCT SOME
SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND PASSING CIRRUS. AS A RESULT...SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NUMEROUS SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...KL/FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...STRATUS DECK HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWFA THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 06Z GUIDANCE AND HOURLY RUC
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK WILL BE SLOWLY TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...EXPECTATION REMAINS THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND A SLOW RETREAT OF THE CLOUDS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IS EXPECTED. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KGFL/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TO DEVELOP
THERE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /3 KTS OR LESS/ OR CALM AT ALL
SITES.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL...BKN
CIGS OF 3500 TO 6000 FT WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
SOME STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE CLEARING...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
322 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TREND TO LIFT THESE CLOUDS FURTHER NORTH THROUGH TODAY.
HOWEVER...A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE REGION
DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...A NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CWFA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
VT...CAPITAL REGION OF NY AND THROUGH THE CATSKILLS. AMPLE STRATUS
WAS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL BINOVC/S ARE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE METARS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE
DAY WILL BE THE PROGRESS /IF ANY/ OF THIS STRATUS DECK. PER THE
LATEST RUC13 AND 00Z NCEP MODEL SUITE... THE H925-H850 LAYER RH
FIELDS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY. THERE ARE SOME TRENDS SEEN IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE FOR
TAKING THIS CLOUD LAYER FURTHER NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MEAN FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MAGNITUDES. SO WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO SHOW THE SLOW MIGRATORY NATURE OF THESE CLOUDS AND
FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR FOR A PTSUNNY FORECAST EVOLVING FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...WE WILL FAVOR A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ASSUMING WE DO
GET THOSE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH AROUND 70F AND MAINLY 60S
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH SOME INFLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM THAT IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DUE TO THE POSITIVE TILTED
NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED. SO FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE RATHER CLOSE IN THE GUIDANCE AND
WE WILL PLACE VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
THE INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO AROUND
40KTS...HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND POSITION OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER JET...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PWAT ANOMALIES REMAIN 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE GFS-ENSEMBLES SO RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. PER THE
UPPER JET STRUCTURE....THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL APPEARS
TO BE ACROSS THE DACKS WHERE WE WILL PLACE THE HIGHER POPS.
EXTENSIVE COLLABORATION THIS MORNING REGARDING THUNDER POTENTIAL
AS SHOWALTER VALUES ARE PROGED TO BE AROUND 0C /THIS IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS TIME STEPS/. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY WHEN THESE
LOWER SHOWALTER VALUES ARRIVE...WE WILL WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF
THUNDER AT THIS TIME.
FROPA IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE THERMAL PROFILES. WE
WILL LOWER POPS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD W-SW FLOW
ALOFT...AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST DOWNSTREAM OF
THE REGION ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING IN THE FAST SW FLOW
ALOFT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. MIN
TEMPS THURS NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE DACKS TO THE MID 60S IN HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. MINS FRI NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE VALLEY AREAS. MAX
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE SHUNTED NORTH OF THE REGION. WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE...THERE WON/T BE MANY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE WILL GO WITH
LOW CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT/SUN FOR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...WITH SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. WHILE TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN SATURDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT WILL TEAM UP WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO
TO PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF
THE ADIRONDACKS MAY SEE A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT NIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 30S.
MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA /SOME 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SRN GREEN MTNS/.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KGFL/KPSF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN FREE OF LOW
CLOUDS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR TO DEVELOP
THERE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT /3 KTS OR LESS/ OR CALM AT ALL
SITES.
THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES. FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL...BKN
CIGS OF 3500 TO 6000 FT WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. FURTHER SOUTH...KPOU SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES.
SOME STRATUS MAY START TO MOVE TOWARDS KPOU FOR TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER SITES WILL BE CLEARING...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE NIGHT...ESP FOR KGFL/KPSF. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED
SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER UNTIL A STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF RAINFALL EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR
LATER IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 45 AND 60 PERCENT WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THOSE VALUES RETURN TO AT OR
ABOVE 80 PERCENT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 12 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. RIVER AND
STREAM LEVELS REMAINS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND MIDWEEK...WHEN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
WEATHER.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
VERY PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA WITH TWO MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES THIS PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A TROUGH HAS BEEN CUT
OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FORCING THE GULF RIDGE TO EXPAND EAST AND THE ATLANTIC TROUGH GETS
PINCHED OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. THE ATLANTIC TROUGH HAS
IN TURN, INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IN THE
VICINITY OF NASSAU AND ANDROS ISLAND. THIS IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TO THE WEST IN AN
OTHERWISE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE AREA SURROUNDING
SOUTH FLORIDA. I MENTION ALL OF THIS AS THE NAM HAS CAPTURED THIS
SURFACE FEATURE MORE SO THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER.
THE PROBLEM FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PERIOD OR TWO WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE IS HOW MUCH AFFECT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE ALREADY ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH A COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOVEMENT TO THEM AROUND THE LOWER
PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THE NAM IS NOTED FOR SUFFERING FROM MESOSCALE
BIAS BUT SOMETIMES PICKS UP ON THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES WITH ITS
FINER RESOLUTION BETTER THAN THE GFS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT. FOR ALL OF
THESE REASONS, WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE THE SOUTHEAST
COASTAL REGION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, DUE TO ITS MESOSCALE BIAS WILL NOT GO AS
BULLISH AS THE MET GUIDANCE BUT WILL CERTAINLY GO ABOVE THE MAV
NUMBERS.
THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM CONTINUES HIGH MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWING PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.6-1.9 INCHES. THIS IS
NO DOUBT IS OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REDUCE THE POPS CLOSER TO
THE MAV GUIDANCE BUT AGAIN THE MAV MIGHT BE TOO LOW.
ON A SIDE NOTE, THIS IS THE TIME OF THE YEAR OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AND THE HIGHEST TIDES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BE PEAKING
BETWEEN THIS EVENING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH THE FULL MOON WHICH IS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
THEREFORE BE AN INCREASE IN SOME NUISANCE TYPE URBAN STREET FLOODING
AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS POSSIBLY INTO THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS SUCH AS MIAMI
BEACH. THE HIGH TIDES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WILL BE OCCURRING
IN THE EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
THE GULF RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A PRESENCE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR THIS REASON, A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTH GULF COASTAL STATES EARLY FRIDAY, WILL STALL AND
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BUT WITH
MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINING LOW. BUT STILL, THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS CONTINUING.
LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY HOURS WEDNESDAY COULD SLIGHTLY
INCREASE THE SHRA COVERAGE JUST OFF THE EAST COAST BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS SPREADING ASHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC COULD LEAD
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING PERIOD
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME...PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BETWEEN APF AND THE LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL WIND AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS
4 FEET OR LESS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING SPREADING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 87 73 87 / 20 20 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 20 20
MIAMI 74 86 75 87 / 30 30 20 20
NAPLES 71 88 72 88 / - 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
1014 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRUSH INLAND AND NORTHERN FRINGES OF OUR ZONES BUT
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A LATE NIGHT RISK FOR FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
SREF VISIBILITY PLUMES AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
FOG COULD DEVELOP WHERE CROSS-OVER TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 60S
AND THIS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF INLAND SE GEORGIA. THE LATEST RAP
LAYERED CLOUD COVER PROGS SHOW AN EXPANSION OF LATE NIGHT STRATUS
WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. WE HAVE UPGRADED TO AREAS OF FOG
IN SOME AREAS TO TREND...NO MENTION OF DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY STRATOCU. WE
LOWERED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES OTHER THAN INITIALIZATION TWEAKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN STEADILY DESCEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS THE PROGRESS OF THE MAIN FRONT SLOWS UPSTREAM DUE
TO DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPARTING WELL TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR INLAND ZONES AFTER SUNSET AND OVER THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AS A RESULT OF WARM WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH MILD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AT THE SAME TIME THAT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONES AND WITHIN A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COULD SHIFT INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED
FRONT...YET LATEST THINKING IS THAT BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM
NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WHILE THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED EAST AND SE INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ITS CO-LOCATED SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE SE PART OF THE COUNTRY. BUT WHEN THIS OCCURS AND EXACTLY
WHERE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT COULD START TO CLIMB AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER INTO EARLY IN
THE WEEK...BUT COULD MODERATE AGAIN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOR FOG POTENTIAL
A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE VARIABILITY
IN FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE. WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AT LEAST A
SHORT WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS AT KSAV TOWARD DAWN GIVEN THAT CHANCES
MAY BE INCREASING GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT INTRODUCED A WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS AND A
SCATTERED STRATUS DECK AROUND DAWN. KCHS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
BUT SREF/RAP GUIDANCE AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINAL IS LOWER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK..MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT ALL
LEGS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLD FIRM. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
STALLS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE CAPPED AT 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...
INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...VALID 5-10 AM ON THURSDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COURTESY OF THE FULL MOON THAT OCCURS FRIDAY
EVENING WILL MOST PROBABLY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH MOST IF NOT ALL HIGH TIDES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
751 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...THEN STALL ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT SUNSET INDICATED ONLY PATCHES OF STRATOCU
AND CIRRUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE A BIT
SLOWER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY THIS EVENING.
SREF VISIBILITY PLUMES AND RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD AFFECT AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-95 EARLY THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BECOME TOO
MUCH OF AN ISSUE BUT BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN SE GEORGIA MAY RESULT IN THE FOG
EXTENT BECOMING SOMEWHAT GREATER TOWARD DAWN IF CLOUDS DO NOT
DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PATCHY FOG IN THE TEXT AND
GRIDDED FORECASTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AXIS OF RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN STEADILY DESCEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...AS THE PROGRESS OF THE MAIN FRONT SLOWS UPSTREAM DUE
TO DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPARTING WELL TO THE NORTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THEN SUPPORTS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR INLAND ZONES AFTER SUNSET AND OVER THE
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS AS A RESULT OF WARM WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH MILD LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY...AS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT...AT THE SAME TIME THAT WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
AREA AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL STILL REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONES AND WITHIN A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION SUGGESTS WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COULD SHIFT INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE MARINE ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STALLED
FRONT...YET LATEST THINKING IS THAT BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER...PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND FALLING MAINLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STREAM
NORTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WHILE THE
FRONT BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THICK CLOUD COVER AND THE GRADUAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FORCED EAST AND SE INTO THE
ATLANTIC FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ITS CO-LOCATED SURFACE WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE SE PART OF THE COUNTRY. BUT WHEN THIS OCCURS AND EXACTLY
WHERE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT COULD START TO CLIMB AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER INTO EARLY IN
THE WEEK...BUT COULD MODERATE AGAIN BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOR FOG POTENTIAL
A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY...DUE TO THE VARIABILITY
IN FORECAST CLOUD COVERAGE. WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AT LEAST A
SHORT WINDOW FOR MVFR VSBYS AT KSAV TOWARD DAWN GIVEN THAT CHANCES
MAY BE INCREASING GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME BUT INTRODUCED A WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS AND A
SCATTERED STRATUS DECK AROUND DAWN. KCHS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VSBYS
BUT SREF/RAP GUIDANCE AT OUR NORTHERN TERMINAL IS LOWER.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK..MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GO VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT ALL
LEGS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HOLD FIRM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM
1-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...2-3 FT OFFSHORE WATERS AND BE COMPRISED
MAINLY OF EASTERLY SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 10-11 SECONDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIMINISH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
STALLS NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SLIDING
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND EVENTUALLY
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE CAPPED AT 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES...
INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY...VALID 5-10 PM. TIDE IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR IS EXPECTED TO PEAK 7.2 FT MLLW AND 9.2 FT MLLW AT
FORT PULASKI.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES COURTESY OF THE FULL MOON THAT OCCURS FRIDAY
EVENING WILL MOST PROBABLY GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING WITH MOST IF NOT ALL HIGH TIDES INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
341 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MEANDERING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...ABOUT 30-35 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR
THE TONIGHT PERIOD IS CLOUD COVER. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A NUMBER
OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING...NONE OF
WHICH SEEM TO BE HANDING CLOUD TRENDS WELL THIS AFTERNOON. RAP
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT...KEEPING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE BENEATH THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT HAS
TAKEN PLACE TODAY...THE RAP MAY VERY WELL BE ONTO SOMETHING. PLAN
TO GO WITH A SOMEWHAT MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD APPROACH SHOWING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MOST OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE. NUDGED LOWS CLOSER TO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BEFORE
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH MOST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE NORTH...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER
ZONAL...SO HEIGHTS WILL NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 OR
IN THE LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 12Z MODELS
HAVE SHOWN WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES...SO BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. WILL BE IN THE UPPER LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE ZONAL FLOW AND LACK OF DYNAMICS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE RETURN FLOW.
SOUNDING SHOW MOSTLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THEN...THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO VERY LITTLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME
MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING WITH TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ONCE CLOUDS LIFT BY 20-22Z. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE. IT WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE SEAS DROP BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG...SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN FORCE
THERE THROUGH 9 PM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL JUST INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...GENERALLY MAINTAINING THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS
SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 PM UNTIL 9 PM FOR
ALL COASTAL ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY. LATEST EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED MOST PLACES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TIDES TO
PEAK 7.3 TO 7.5 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 9.1 TO 9.4 FT
MLLW AT FORT PULASKI. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT LEVELS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER...BUT WILL FINALIZE THESE NUMBERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE ELEVATED INITIALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT EVEN AS THOSE WINDS BECOME LESS OF A
FACTOR LATER IN THE WEEK THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES OF THE UPCOMING
FULL MOON BECOME AN ISSUE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST/BDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN STALL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THIN ALOFT AND CLOUDS ARE BREAKING
ACCORDINGLY. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SKIES MAY CLOUD BACK UP
A BIT AS CUMULUS DEVELOPS...BUT A GENERAL DECREASING TREND WILL
OCCUR. CLOUD COVER HAS HAMPERED THERMAL RISES...SO NUDGES HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND LAV
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA BUT
MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT UPON THE CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD BE
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. FOR NOW WE WENT MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND WITH LOWER/MID 60S AT THE COAST. LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE CLOUD COVER IS LOWEST.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE/THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S FOR
HIGHS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
COAST.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THEN...THE FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY...A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT
79-84.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN MAY BE COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH THEN BEGINS TO LIFT OUT LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
GOING IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME
MONDAY...WITH THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING WITH TIME. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ONCE CLOUDS LIFT BY 20-22Z. COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VFR FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRETTY POOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW-
LEVEL JETTING SUBSIDE. CANCELLED FLAGS FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE ZONES AND EXTENDED FOR THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS
GIVEN 41008 IS STILL GUSTING OVER 25 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 7 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED. THE FRONT THEN APPEARS TO STALL JUST INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY...GENERALLY MAINTAINING THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW. WINDS
SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 PM UNTIL 9 PM FOR
ALL COASTAL ZONES...INCLUDING TIDAL BERKELEY. LATEST EXTRATROPICAL
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOLID ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE
OBSERVED MOST PLACES WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING. EXPECT TIDES TO
PEAK 7.3 TO 7.5 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND 9.1 TO 9.4 FT
MLLW AT FORT PULASKI. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT LEVELS COULD BE A BIT
HIGHER...BUT WILL FINALIZE THESE NUMBERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON
FORECAST PACKAGE.
TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. TIDE LEVELS ARE ELEVATED INITIALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS...BUT EVEN AS THOSE WINDS BECOME LESS OF A
FACTOR LATER IN THE WEEK THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES OF THE UPCOMING
FULL MOON BECOME AN ISSUE.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
SCZ048>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1238 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
755 PM CDT
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS THE MAJORITY OF
IT IS STILL ON TRACK. A FEW SITES SUCH AS WAUKEGAN COOLED A BIT
MORE THAN FORECAST...HOWEVER THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AS CLOUD COVER SPREADS OVER THE REGION. SPEAKING OF CLOUD
COVER...IR IMAGERY INDICATES PRIMARILY CLEAR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
OVER THE CWA AS THE CLOUDS OVER IOWA ARE ERODING SLIGHTLY AS THEY
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SLOWED THE INCREASE OF CLOUD
COVER A BIT BUT STILL EXPECTING THE THICKER CLOUD COVER TO MOVE IN
LATE THIS EVENING. LASTLY...ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER FIT TIMING OF
ADVANCING SHOWERS OVER IOWA AND RECENT HRRR TRENDS. USED THE HRRR
BECAUSE IT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIP THE PAST FEW HOURS.
JEE
//PREV DISCUSSION...
302 PM CDT
FORECAST CONCERNS ON THIS COLUMBUS DAY ARE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES ALONG WITH TIMING ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES AS
A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN ENSUES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
IS CONTRACTING NORTHEAST. THIS HIGH WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A CRISP
MORNING WITH NUMEROUS VOLUNTEER OBSERVERS IN OUTLYING AREAS
REPORTING FROST. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE ALMOST ENTIRELY
DIMINISHED AS CONVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED AND THE DRY OVERALL
ATMOSPHERE HAS WON OUT. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR
IS BECOMING NEUTRALLY TILTED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...AND IS THE WEATHER MAKER FOR TUESDAY.
TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST THIS EVE AND LIKELY HOLD
STEADY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND REORIENTS AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA. BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE
IN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP AT A DECENT RATE AND THEN HOLD
STEADY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW DEEPENS AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. ALSO IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS DEEPENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS INTO
THE REGION. FAIRLY GOOD SETUP FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS
FROM IA INTO MO DEVELOPING EASTWARD...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
REACHING THE WESTERN CWA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING OF THE WARM MOIST CONVEYOR BELT...AND
ASSOCIATED LIFT...MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING. THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS. THE CHANNELED VORTICITY ALONG THIS AXIS SEEMS TO WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...SO SHOWER COVERAGE MAY TRY
TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS IT MOVES EAST...AND CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT TREND...BUT STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO WARRANT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREV DISCUSSION...DYNAMICS ALONG WITH FORECAST SLIGHT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION TODAY TO OUR WEST AND INCHED UP THUNDER WORDING
A BIT OVER OUR AREA FOR THAT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
AHEAD OF THIS...CONVERGENCE AND NARROW INSTABILITY TONGUE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVAIL BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY...SO INSTABILITY RETURN
LOOKS MARGINAL. WITH THAT...DCAPE LOOKS MARGINAL AS WELL...SO
WHILE THE WIND FIELDS ARE QUITE APPRECIABLE...ANY GUSTIER STORMS
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
SOLUTIONS MAKE SENSE WITH THE SYSTEM DRY SLOT EVOLVING IN QUICKLY
TUE EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOULD LEAD TO A DRY TUE NIGHT IN MOST PLACES. COLD
AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE AND
COME IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURE TREND APPROPRIATELY FOR THIS.
WEDNESDAY...THE HEART OF THE UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY/DEEPER CLOUD
DEPTHS LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH ON WED SO ONLY CONTINUE A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE LOOKING TO BE
JUST NORTH IN WI. COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATUS/STRATOCU SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THAT AND
A COOLING COLUMN...MID TO UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST FOR HIGHS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...A SUBSTANTIAL LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL VERY
MUCH ON TRACK TO CARVE ITSELF OUT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAKES IT
CHALLENGING FOR TEMPERATURES...NAMELY MIN TEMPS...AS CLOUD COVER
WILL PLAY A ROLE. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MAX TEMPS LOOK
TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEADING INTO AND DURING NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR LOWS AT FREEZING IF THE SKY CLEARS AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING PREVAILS...WHICH IT LIKELY WILL AT SOME
POINT AS THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH EVOLVES EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
MTF
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS
MID MORNING TUESDAY.
* CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.
* SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
TONIGHT DEEP LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE FARTHER EAST OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING
CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE REGION. RAIN MAY
STRUGGLE INITIALLY AS IT RUNS INTO DRY AIR...BUT PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION WILL HELP SATURATE THE LAYER WITH CIGS GRADUALLY DROPPING
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
WIDESPREAD RANGE OF CIGS FROM IFR TO VFR...AND LIKEWISE GUIDANCE IS
NOT PICKING UP ON A STRONG SIGNAL ON HOW LOW CIGS WILL GO. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF MVFR CIGS WITH SCTD CLOUDS DOWN TO AROUND
010.
WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TOMORROW...AND GRADUALLY VEERING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW
MOVES ENE ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN...AND STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE NEAR
THE SURFACE EARLY TOMORROW WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. BUT A 55 KT
LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER IOWA BEGINS TO VEER OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AROUND DAYBREAK....WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT DOES SO...BUT
STILL SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR LLWS AT RFD. BY MID AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN MIXING DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA OVERSPREADING TERMINALS AROUND
15Z.
* LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIG HEIGHTS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEEDS...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECTION.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE SHRA.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA. MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
RATZER
&&
.MARINE...
228 PM...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING. THE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY. EXPECT SPEEDS IN THE 15-25KT OR 20-25KT RANGE OVER
MUCH OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF
WINDS TURN EAST OR EVEN NORTHEAST ON THE FAR NORTH END OF THE LAKE
AND SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF/THIRD OF
THE LAKE ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. AS THE LOW DEPARTS
ON WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKE...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO. NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30KTS LOOK
REASONABLE AND THERE COULD BE A SHORT PERIOD OF AT LEAST GUSTS TO
LOW END GALES THOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN/T TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT AND
HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY GALES WITH THIS FORECAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION FRIDAY WITH COLDER
AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
15-25KTS AT TIMES. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WINTHROP TO WILMETTE HARBORS UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WINDS OVER INDIANA WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
TO PASS. BETWEEN COLD FRONTS...THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN
INDIANA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
STRATO CU DECK HAS PUSHED AS FAR EAST AS A KOKOMO TO COVINGTON LINE.
BUT HAS MOVED LITTLE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW
TENTH OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO ALL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS PER SREF AND RAP MODELS WHICH
INDICATES POSSIBLE PRECIP THOSE AREAS TOWARDS 12Z.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS
AS TEMPERATURES THERE ARE APPROACHING CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS.
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK FOR TEST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
MOST PRESSING PROBLEM RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.
GREAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV AND MET POPS TOMORROW...WITH MAV
WETTER. I PREFER MAV. IF YOU LOOK AT PRESSURE ADVENTURE ON POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACES...BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE GOOD FORCING THURSDAY. IN
THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS SUCH FORCING USUALLY AT LEAST CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
MODELS CONCUR ABOUT DRY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
BASICALLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND WARM GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS AGAIN DIVERGE. MET LIKELY AND MAV LOW END
CHANCE. MEX SAYS CHANCE WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A TOUGH
CALL BUT WILL USE MAV BECAUSE GFS USUALLY HANDLES SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR TEMPS THURSDAY GOING WITH COOLER MAV GIVEN I LIKE ITS RELATIVELY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. AFTER THURSDAY MOS TEMPS CLOSE. WILL USE
CONSENSUS TO GET WHATEVER SKILL THAT TECHNIQUE HAS. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOT HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE. RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES IN SKY COVER COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING A FEW PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE SO DID NOT
STRAY FAR. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MUCH OUT OF THE 50S MOST
DAYS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S...AND PERHAPS COOLER ON
ANY CLEARER NIGHTS. FROST DOES NOT LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
KIND TAF LOOKS GOOD WITH MVFR CLOUDS REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT NORTHERN SITES...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.
AREA OF MAINLY MVFR STRATOCU IS HAVING A HARD TIME COMING EAST...BUT
IT STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT KLAF FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS ARE THAT THE DECK WILL STAY JUST NORTH/WEST
OF KIND SO LEFT IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING.
MID CLOUD WILL THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER SYSTEM WITH
LOWER VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY 12Z. THESE WILL LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...SO PUT VCSH AT KLAF FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JK/SMF
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WINDS OVER INDIANA WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
TO PASS. BETWEEN COLD FRONTS...THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN
INDIANA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
STRATO CU DECK HAS PUSHED AS FAR EAST AS A KOKOMO TO COVINGTON LINE.
BUT HAS MOVED LITTLE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW
TENTH OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO ALL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS PER SREF AND RAP MODELS WHICH
INDICATES POSSIBLE PRECIP THOSE AREAS TOWARDS 12Z.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS
AS TEMPERATURES THERE ARE APPROACHING CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS.
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK FOR TEST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
MOST PRESSING PROBLEM RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.
GREAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV AND MET POPS TOMORROW...WITH MAV
WETTER. I PREFER MAV. IF YOU LOOK AT PRESSURE ADVENTURE ON POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACES...BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE GOOD FORCING THURSDAY. IN
THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS SUCH FORCING USUALLY AT LEAST CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
MODELS CONCUR ABOUT DRY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
BASICALLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND WARM GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS AGAIN DIVERGE. MET LIKELY AND MAV LOW END
CHANCE. MEX SAYS CHANCE WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A TOUGH
CALL BUT WILL USE MAV BECAUSE GFS USUALLY HANDLES SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR TEMPS THURSDAY GOING WITH COOLER MAV GIVEN I LIKE ITS RELATIVELY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. AFTER THURSDAY MOS TEMPS CLOSE. WILL USE
CONSENSUS TO GET WHATEVER SKILL THAT TECHNIQUE HAS. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOT HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE. RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES IN SKY COVER COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING A FEW PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE SO DID NOT
STRAY FAR. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MUCH OUT OF THE 50S MOST
DAYS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S...AND PERHAPS COOLER ON
ANY CLEARER NIGHTS. FROST DOES NOT LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 170000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT NORTHERN SITES...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED.
AREA OF MAINLY MVFR STRATOCU IS HAVING A HARD TIME COMING EAST...BUT
IT STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT KLAF FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CURRENT TRENDS ARE THAT THE DECK WILL STAY JUST NORTH/WEST
OF KIND SO LEFT IT OUT OF THERE FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING.
MID CLOUD WILL THEN INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER SYSTEM WITH
LOWER VFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING BY 12Z. THESE WILL LIFT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS...SO PUT VCSH AT KLAF FOR NOW.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JK/SMF
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
136 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVENING FOR THAT MATTER. CURRENT OBS DO NOT INDICATE ANY LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DECREASING
INSTABILITY SO BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL REMAIN PICKING OUT TIMING OF
VARIOUS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ANY OF THE THESE HAVE TO THE POTENTIAL
TO GENERATE A FEW COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS MODELS HAVE ISSUES WITH TIMING OF THESE POTENTIAL
WEATHER MAKERS. USUALLY...ENSEMBLES ARE THE WAY TO GO WITH FAST FLOW
ALOFT...AND CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO DO ANYMORE THAN TINKERING WITH THE
REGIONAL ALLBLEND. THUS...WILL INCLUDE SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AND AGAIN LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN PROLONGED EARLY NOVEMBER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONES PER REGIONAL ALLBLEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR
AFTER 20Z IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 06Z AND IND AND BMG AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM 180-210 DEGREES TO 250 TO 270 DEGREES AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN VFR CU DECK BUILDING BACK IN
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN/LEE
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVENING FOR THAT MATTER. CURRENT OBS DO NOT INDICATE ANY LIGHTNING
ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE DECREASING
INSTABILITY SO BELIEVE THE TREND WILL CONTINUE.
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR
AFTER 20Z IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 06Z AND IND AND BMG AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM 180-210 DEGREES TO 250 TO 270 DEGREES AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN VFR CU DECK BUILDING BACK IN
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN/LEE
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/18Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR OR MORE LIKELY IFR
AFTER 20Z IN SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH LAF AFTER 06Z AND IND AND BMG AFTER 08Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM 180-210 DEGREES TO 250 TO 270 DEGREES AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME HIGH
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN VFR CU DECK BUILDING BACK IN
AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AS A UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/15Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
DELAYED VCSH UNTIL 16Z BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR IN
VICINITY OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC. SHOULD BE A WHILE BEFORE ANY OF THE LIGHT ECHOES IN
THE AREA MAKES THE GROUND...AND EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HEAVY HOWEVER...AND MAY NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY FORM.
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF RESTRICTED
CEILINGS BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND CEILINGS LIFT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT TODAY...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST POST FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/MK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...BEFORE COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...AND SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 954 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CANOPY HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS OF MID MORNING. LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY
CROSSING THE WABASH RIVER INTO THE STATE SHORTLY BEFORE 14Z. TEMPS
WERE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 50S AS OF MID MORNING.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INTRODUCE ONSET OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A FEW HOURS QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. APPEARS A SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO
THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE MAIN LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE EXTENSIVE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING. CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
THIS AREA OF LIFT WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND BUMPS INTO
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. BUMPED UP POPS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT...WITH
HIGHER POPS EXPANDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AFTER 18Z
WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S
STILL LOOK REASONABLE.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
GFS AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND.
NUMEROUS FEATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE STATE AS A CHANGE IN AIR
MASS TAKES PLACE. GOOD DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IN TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND POPS HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. WILL TREND
LOWS TOWARD EXPECTED WET BULB TEMPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
PRECIP.
ON WEDNESDAY LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AMID THE PASSING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWLY EXITING CENTRAL INDIANA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AMID WEAK FORCING. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS POPS AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AND TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FORECAST COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY...AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO WORK
IN ON WEST WINDS. AS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND HIGHS COOLER THAN MAVMOS...CLOSER TO THE
3 HOURLY VALUES.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GFS AND NAM DEPICT YET ANOTHER
LARGE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REMAIN RATHER DRY AS MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREAS HAS
BEEN SWEPT EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS...DYNAMICS APPEAR STRONG AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATE...FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SHALLOW CONVECTION. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CLOUDINESS
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCLUDE SOME CHC POPS FOR
THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASS.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS AND SUBSIDENCE REMAINS PREVALENT IN THE
VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT A DRY FORECAST WITH LOWS
NEAR MEXMOS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND THUS A CONTINUATION THE COOLEST AIR OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH OUT OF THE 50S
SOME DAYS AND LOWS DROPPING WELL INTO THE 40S AND PERHAPS EVEN UPPER
30S MOST NIGHTS.
ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA...BUT HAVE
TRIMMED BACK INITIALIZED POPS TO FOCUS ON THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
THIS TO OCCUR...WHICH AS OF NOW LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AND AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS FAR OUT THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SEVERAL
TIMES AS THESE FEATURES ARE SUBTLE AND TYPICALLY POORLY HANDLED BY
MODELS.
IN GENERAL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND AN ABRUPT INTRODUCTION TO
MUCH MORE AUTUMN LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 15/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CEILINGS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF DROP TO IFR IN
VICINITY OF COLD FRONT THIS EVENING INTO EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING AND SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC. SHOULD BE A WHILE BEFORE ANY OF THE LIGHT ECHOES IN
THE AREA MAKES THE GROUND...AND EXPECT THAT THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL
BE THE BEST TIME FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE
ESPECIALLY HEAVY HOWEVER...AND MAY NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON
CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
EMBEDDED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS LOW PROBABILITY ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN ANY FORM.
NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF RESTRICTED
CEILINGS BEFORE DRY SLOT MOVES IN AND CEILINGS LIFT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KT TODAY...SWITCHING TO THE
WEST POST FRONT TONIGHT.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
318 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2013
...UPDATED THE LONG TERM ...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
To start off with, I deliberated over low temperatures quite a bit
for tonight, and the resultant freeze and frost hazards. Model
guidance varies quite a bit, and this difference seems to be
centered around how fast some mid and high clouds will intrude.
Have settled upon using the HRRR and RUC models, which are a bit
cooler than then NAM, ECMWF, and GFS models. In the end, there
could be a small area that freezes tonight in our northwest zones,
namely Trego, Ellis, Scott, Lane and Ness counties, where a freeze
warning will be posted from 4 am to 9 am CDT. The 32F degree mark
may be tricky in Scott county, if the mid level clouds get there
before the diurnal cooling off occurs, they may hit 33F or 34F very
briefly around 09-10Z. To the south, surrounding the Freeze
Warning, mid 30s seem likely and a frost advisory is in place from 4
am to 9 am CDT, with widespread frost mentioned. Even one more tier
of counties southward will have patchy frost mentioned late, but
without an advisory. Down along most of the Oklahoma state
boundary, clouds will be entering there sooner, and thus lows in the
upper 30s will extend along most of that stretch.
An upper wave, open in nature, will cross from New Mexico into
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. The upper synoptic lift may be just
enough to kick off a few rain showers across our southern half of
the CWA, but only slight chances seem justified since no surface
boundary is present, and the lower layers will be cool. With
clouds, some scattered showers, and cold air advection, max temps
will struggle to get out of the 50s. Current forecast max temps
range from 57F in Syracuse, to 60F in Medicine Lodge. I did not
change the forecast highs, as they seemed reasonable. The other
weather parameter worth noting is winds will not be too strong, as
they have been of late. The high pressure will produce northwest
winds around 10 mph in the morning, which will shift to the west by
afternoon, still blow in the 10 to 15 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
Relatively dry and sunny conditions are expected Thursday due to
transient mid level shortwave ridging. Cold temperatures in the mid
to upper 30`s are most likely during the morning while abundant
insolation should allow warming into the 60`s by early afternoon.
a sharp mid to upper level baroclinic zone associated with a
strongly positively tilted trough and 300 mb level polar will jet
have create sensible weather impacts for Friday. As the upper trough
approaches and sharpens by Friday morning, the mid level baroclinic
zone will strengthen causing frontogenesis and associated lift
ageostrophic lifting. GFS is very similar to the ECMWF with respect to most
mass fields with this system, and shows a continuously sloping
intense frontogenetic profile from above 850 mb level near medicine
lodge to near 500 mb across NW Kansas. This cold system aloft
appears warm enough in the boundary layer to expect phase change to
all rain at the surface. GFS and GEM are the coldest of the models,
only allowing for temperatures to reach the upper 40`s across
western Kansas by the afternoon.
Precipitation chances have been increased to the likely category for
Friday morning with a rapid tapering in the afternoon as the upper
trough transitions to a subsident northwest flow across central
Kansas by Friday night. Saturday morning will have potential to be
cold again (even with frost) if winds and clearing conditions are
favorable, but yet uncertain considering it is still at a 96 hour
forecast timestep.
The remainder of the forecast period through early next week is for
and only slowly moderating surface temperatures toward normal for
mid October, as northwest flow aloft becomes established aloft and
high pressure dominates the central Rockies into the southern
plains.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
High pressure over Wyoming will build southeastward and be over
western Kansas by midnight. Northwest winds will be breezy at
20g29kt this afternoon, then become at less than 10kt after 00z. a
few high clouds will start streaming in from the southwest later
tonight, as an open wave moves in. Clouds should be cirrus to
begin with, but will likely form cigs at or below ovc100 at KDDC
and KGCK toward 09z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 58 38 65 / 0 20 10 10
GCK 34 58 35 64 / 0 20 10 10
EHA 36 57 37 64 / 10 30 0 10
LBL 36 58 37 66 / 10 30 0 10
HYS 32 59 37 63 / 0 10 10 10
P28 38 60 40 67 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ046-061>064.
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
156 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2013
...Updated for the short term forecast...
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
To start off with, I deliberated over low temperatures quite a bit
for tonight, and the resultant freeze and frost hazards. Model
guidance varies quite a bit, and this difference seems to be
centered around how fast some mid and high clouds will intrude.
Have settled upon using the HRRR and RUC models, which are a bit
cooler than then NAM, ECMWF, and GFS models. In the end, there
could be a small area that freezes tonight in our northwest zones,
namely Trego, Ellis, Scott, Lane and Ness counties, where a freeze
warning will be posted from 4 am to 9 am CDT. The 32F degree mark
may be tricky in Scott county, if the mid level clouds get there
before the diurnal cooling off occurs, they may hit 33F or 34F very
briefly around 09-10Z. To the south, surrounding the Freeze
Warning, mid 30s seem likely and a frost advisory is in place from 4
am to 9 am CDT, with widespread frost mentioned. Even one more tier
of counties southward will have patchy frost mentioned late, but
without an advisory. Down along most of the Oklahoma state
boundary, clouds will be entering there sooner, and thus lows in the
upper 30s will extend along most of that stretch.
An upper wave, open in nature, will cross from New Mexico into
southeast Kansas on Wednesday. The upper synoptic lift may be just
enough to kick off a few rain showers across our southern half of
the CWA, but only slight chances seem justified since no surface
boundary is present, and the lower layers will be cool. With
clouds, some scattered showers, and cold air advection, max temps
will struggle to get out of the 50s. Current forecast max temps
range from 57F in Syracuse, to 60F in Medicine Lodge. I did not
change the forecast highs, as they seemed reasonable. The other
weather parameter worth noting is winds will not be too strong, as
they have been of late. The high pressure will produce northwest
winds around 10 mph in the morning, which will shift to the west by
afternoon, still blow in the 10 to 15 mph range.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
Wednesday:
A minor impulse moving at the base of a positively tilted synoptic
trof on Wednesday might be able to initiate a few showers across the
southwest counties during the day. Should not be a heavy precip event
as forecast skew-t/log-p`s show moisture is rooted mainly in lower to
mid levels of the atmosphere. Otherwise, temperatures will be on the
cool side and in the 50sF for highs and 30sF for lows heading into Thursday.
Thursday:
On Thursday, a large open trof encompasses 2/3rds of the CONUS. Low
level temps do increase a few degrees, but we will still be dealing
with a cool airmass. Expect highs in the 60sF with minimums for Friday
a few degrees warmer. No precipitation is expected.
Friday and beyond:
Another upper level wave moves across the region Friday. There is better
upper level dynamics associated with this wave and southwest Kansas
should be on the right entrance region of a 250 hPa jet. This wave will
usher in the passage of a cold front with 850-700 hPa frontogenesis
increasing over the region during the day. Will stick with the weighted
blend solution with chance precipitation probabilities across the area.
Highs will be cooler and back down in the 50sF as precip and cloud cover
lingers. If the ECMWF is right, highs Friday are too warm. Will
tread lightly for now. Beyond Friday, a cool but dry airmass continues.
Temperatures will moderate through the rest of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
High pressure over Wyoming will build southeastward and be over
western Kansas by midnight. Northwest winds will be breezy at
20g29kt this afternoon, then become at less than 10kt after 00z. a
few high clouds will start streaming in from the southwest later
tonight, as an open wave moves in. Clouds should be cirrus to
begin with, but will likely form cigs at or below ovc100 at KDDC
and KGCK toward 09z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 34 58 38 65 / 0 20 10 10
GCK 34 58 35 64 / 0 20 10 10
EHA 36 57 37 64 / 10 30 0 10
LBL 36 58 37 66 / 10 30 0 10
HYS 32 59 37 63 / 0 10 10 10
P28 38 60 40 67 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/
Wednesday FOR KSZ046-061>064.
FREEZE WARNING from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ030-031-
043>045.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burke
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burke
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1209 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
...UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THIS EVENING-TONIGHT: MOST OF THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN THE DRY SLOT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD AND LINE OF
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WEST OF KHYS. WITH WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. BUT EXPECT
RENEWED CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CONVECTION OVER NW KS MOVES SLOWLY E-SE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES.
LATEST RAP OUTPUT SHOWS SFC BASED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE
LACKING...ONLY AROUND 1800 J/KG FOR AREAS JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
MAIN DRY LINE/COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT.
BUT BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO MAKE UP FOR THIS...WITH IMPRESSIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-70KTS. SO COULD SEE A LOW TOPPED LINE CONVECTION
MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY MAKE UP FOR LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES
FOR AT LEAST A SMALL SEVERE EVENT IN CENTRAL KS WITH STRONG STORMS MORE
LIKELY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT (GIVEN BY
SPC) THIS FAR SOUTH...AS NOT A CLASSIC COLD CORE SETUP...GIVEN
VERTICAL STRETCHING WILL BE LIMITED...UNLESS CLOUDS CAN THIN ENOUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
KS. SO THINK A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR ANY KIND
OF TORNADO/FUNNEL...PROBABLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NRN KS.
MORE OF A LOW TOPPED LINE WITH QUARTER HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
EXPECT THIS LINE OF CONVECTION TO MAKE PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LATEST HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE HANDLE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT...WITH
A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA.
ALSO THINK THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. SO MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE WEST
OF I-135 GIVEN THE TIMING.
TUE-THU: EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY ON TUE...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TUE-THU WILL BE THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE PLAINS. THIS COULD POSSIBLY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS FOR WED MORNING...AS THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WILL SEE ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED INTO WED EVE. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
REGION....SO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS IT COMES ACROSS.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HINT AT SOME VERY LOW POPS AS IT MOVES
ACROSS...BUT GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MORE OF A SPRINKLE
CHANCE FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN KS GIVEN THE DRY LOW LAYERS.
KETCHAM
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH ACROSS KS FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRI. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF TRIES TO BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS KS BY
FRI...AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT TIMING OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL STAY CONFINED TO EXTREME SRN KS OR OK. COULD
SEE SOME 850-700H MOISTURE RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN
KS. SO FOR CONSENSUS SAKE...WILL KEEP A LOW POP FOR THIS CHANCE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR WEEKEND AS SERIES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WARMER TEMPS SHUNTED FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH.
KETCHAM
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS HAS DIMINISHED. THE ONLY
REMAINING SITE IS KCNU WHICH MAY HAVE SOME RA...BUT THE THUNDER
HAS BEEN LACKING IF EXISTENT AS THE LINE MOVES EAST. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 9Z. OTHERWISE THE ONLY ISSUE
WITH THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL BE THE WIND SPEEDS. THERE HAS BEEN
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND THE IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY FOR KICT
AND KCNU...HOWEVER DECIDED TO TREND WITH GUSTS AT MOST SITES GIVEN
WHAT IS OCCURRING FURTHER UPSTREAM. AS THE SUN COMES OUT...THE
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE EVEN MORE WITH THE LACKING CLOUD COVER AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO OCCUR AFTER THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AS CIGS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN LIFTED AT MOST SITES.
JUANITA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 47 62 39 61 / 90 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 45 60 38 61 / 90 10 10 10
NEWTON 46 60 37 59 / 90 10 10 10
ELDORADO 48 62 39 60 / 80 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 49 64 41 61 / 80 10 10 10
RUSSELL 40 58 34 58 / 90 0 0 10
GREAT BEND 40 59 33 59 / 80 0 0 10
SALINA 44 60 36 61 / 90 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 45 60 36 60 / 90 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 52 64 43 60 / 80 20 10 20
CHANUTE 51 63 42 60 / 80 10 10 10
IOLA 50 63 42 59 / 80 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 52 64 42 60 / 80 20 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
357 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSHING THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1025 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ALONG/JUST
OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. MEANWHILE...1012 MB SFC LOW REMAINS CENTERED
OFF THE NC COAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR AND OBS REFLECT THAT
THE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACRS SE VA/NE NC HAVE PUSHED INLAND
AND ARE NOW AFFECTING MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STILL PREVAIL. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALTHOUGH RADAR
RETURNS ARE QUITE WEAK AND THE CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MEASURABLE IS
RATHER LOW SO WILL ONLY CARRY A 20% POP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ALONG/EAST
OF I-95. WENT A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT AS BULK OF
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW STRATUS MAKING IT INTO ALL AREAS (EVEN
THE PIEDMONT). THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL GENLY KEEP FOG FORMATION AT
A MINIMUM BUT STILL WILL LIKELY SEE VSBYS DROP TO 2-4SM OVERNIGHT.
LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COAST TO THE MID
50S ACRS THE FAR WEST (MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE MINS IN THE UPPER
50S/AROUND 60F).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT BY DAYBREAK WED WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER
WED/THU AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES EARLY ON WED...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SINCE BOTH THE GFS/NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...DID NOT KEEP IT CLOUDY ALL DAY...GENLY DROPPING SKY COVER
TO BKN CONDITIONS BY AFTN. WENT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 2-5
DEGREES DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW AND POTENTIAL CLOUDS (AND WITH THE
WINDS STAYING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST). THIS YIELDS HIGH MAINLY IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S. A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT KEPT
POPS CAPPED AT 14% AS VIRTUALLY NO FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WED NIGHT/THU MAY OFFSET
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO HAVE SKIES AVG PARTLY CLOUDY
RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY E OF I-95. STILL STAYED
COOLER THAN MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR HIGHS THU WHICH ARE GENLY IN THE
80-85 DEGREE RANGE (THINK 75-80 IS MORE LIKELY). BEST CHC FOR
PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR THU NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE FAR NW/N ZONES
WHERE GFS/NAM SHOW THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND MANY AREAS MAY RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO QPF AS
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT/DYNAMICS STAY WELL TO OUR N/W. AS FOR POPS WENT
WITH 30-40% CHANCES MOST AREAS...WITH A NARROW ZONE OF 60% POPS
OVER THE FAR N/NW. SKIES CLEAR OUT FROM N TO S FRI MORNING...BUT
THINK THE GFS IS TOO FAST AT SHOWING THIS GIVEN CONTINUED WSW/SW
FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH THAT BUILDS TO THE NORTH MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO EVEN CLEAR OUT FAR SE ZONES FRI BUT WILL GO W/ PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWN THERE FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S FRI.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST GFS/NAM/ECMWF BUILD A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY KEEPING MOST IF NOT ALL MOISTURE
SOUTH OF FA. THIS HIGH RETREATS OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY ALLOWING
THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE TO DRIFT BACK NORTH A BIT. SO HAVE DROPPED
POPS MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...EXCEPT ALONG AND SOUTH OF VA RT 58
WHERE I KEPT SLGHT CHC POPS. CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
40S EXCEPT 50-55 ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGHS SATURDAY M60S-L70S.
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
COASTAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
VACAPES SUNDAY. TSCTNS AND MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SERN ZONES AND A BUFFER ZONE ON SLGHT CHC POPS
FURTHER NW SATURDAY NIGHT. PCPN THEN SHIFTS TO THE SERN ZONES SUNDAY
BEFORE ENDING AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER OFFSHORE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
IN THE M40S-M50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY
BUT COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS 65-70. COOLEST
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER SKIES CLEAR. LOWS U30S NWRN COUNTYS TO L-M50S SERN
COASTAL AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S TO L50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ROTATING IN FROM
THE OCEAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH RIC BEING THE LAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST MANY
OF THE CIGS ARE IFR. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO PUSH THE
CLOUDS UP TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM ALL SHOW CIGS LOWERING
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BRING IFR CIGS BACK TO ALL AIRPORTS
EXCEPT RIC WHICH WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD AT TIMES LOWER TO
IFR ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GIVING LOWER VSBY TONIGHT HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SREF ALL INDICATE KEEPING VSBY MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FINALLY DURING WEDNESDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO FROM
THE LAND. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR INLAND AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
COULD FINALLY HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BTWN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE
STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
EXTENDED INTO CNTRL VA...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT TO FINALLY RELAX OVER
THE UPPER AND CNTRL BAY (NE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25 KT). WAVES
IN THE UPPER BAY HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED AOB 2 FT. SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE IN THE LOWER BAY WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT AND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT (HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). SEAS
REMAIN 5-9 FT...HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE LOWER BAY ZONE (NEW POINT
COMFORT TO LITTLE CREEK) AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND TO EXPIRE AT 4PM
EDT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NE COAST TONIGHT-WED MORNING AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS JUST OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE AOB 15 KT OVER THE WATERS.
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS (THRU EARLY WED
MORNING) AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (THRU 7PM THIS EVENING) FOR
SEAS/WAVES. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TOMORROW...WITH
N-NE WINDS VEERING TO THE S-SW LATE WED-WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURS...BEFORE CROSSING THE WATERS LATE
THURS NIGHT-FRI MORNING. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT...BUT STRONGEST WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE
WATER. DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS PRE-FRONTAL THURS
NIGHT...BUT MAY REACH SCA CONDS POST FRONTAL EARLY FRI MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE WATERS FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE...ALLOWING TIDAL ANOMALIES TO
DIMINISH AOB 1 FT. REPLACED ALL ADVISORIES WITH STATEMENTS FOR THIS
EVENINGS/TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLES AS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SEWELLS POINT WILL REACH MINOR THRESHOLDS (JUST OVER 4.6 FT
MLLW)...BUT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD. DROPPED HEADLINES
FOR THE UPPER JAMES AS ANOMALIES HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND HALF A
FOOT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE
MD ERN SHORE AS ANOMALIES ARE AROUND ONE HALF FOOT. HIGH TIDAL
ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AIDED BY
CONTINUED NE FLOW AND A FULL MOON BUT LATEST DATA SUGGESTS WATER
LEVELS WILL FALL SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. SEE CFWAKQ FOR
MORE SITE- SPECIFIC TIDAL INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JAB
MARINE...SAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
158 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR UPDATE JUST SENT TO BRING CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER INLAND THIS
AFTN...SKIES AVG PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY ACRS THE FAR NW...CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 18Z FROM ABOUT AVC TO RIC TO XSA ON SOUTH AND
EAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO THE LWR 70S WEST.
PREV DISC...
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
QUEBEC...PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST TO NOVIA SCOTIA AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...1012 MB SFC LOW REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE
NC/SC COAST. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR AND OBS REFLECT CONTINUED
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER FAR SE VA/NE NC AS WELL AS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVAIL FARTHER INLAND WHERE EARLIER LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG IS NOW
DISSIPATING. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED PER LATEST CONDITIONS...STILL
LOOKING LIKE A DAMP/BREEZY/MAINLY CLOUDY DAY ACRS THE FAR SE SO
HAVE TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES...GENLY AT OR JUST
ABOVE 70 F. HIGHS WILL AVG IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FARTHER INLAND
WHERE SKIES AVG OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM...WITH SFC
WINDS BECMG SSW IN THE AFTN/EVENG. EXPECT GENERALLY A PARTLY SUNNY
SKY OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WED AFTN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACRS
MOST OF THE AREA. A SFC FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA LATE
WED NGT THRU THU NGT. A WAVE OF LO PRES WILL TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT THRU THE MID ATLC REGION THU EVENG/NGT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A CHC FOR SHOWERS THU AFTN THRU THU NGT. LOWS WED NGT IN THE MID
50S TO LWR 60S. HI TEMPS ON THU RANGING THRU THE 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WSW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THUR. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SFC RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TO PUSH FARTHER TO THE NE. LATEST ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THURS...SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE APP MOUNTAINS WITH THE CENTER OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BEST DYNAMICS MOVING THROUGH SE CANADA.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO ARISE EARLY FRI AS GFS
SWEEPS THE FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA. TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO TRENDS LATELY
IN WHICH FRONTS STRUGGLE TO BE ABLE TO PUSH THEIR WAY COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST. WITH THE FRONT STALLING AROUND
THE AREA EXPECT WARMER TEMPS BUT CLOUDIER FORECAST FOR FRI.
SECONDARY WAVE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
MID WEST WILL HELP TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY. THIS
ENERGY WILL ALSO HELP PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST COOLING TEMPS AND
CLEARING CLOUDS FOR SAT. BRIEF AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THE AREA FOR SAT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUN. AS EACH WAVE PASSES EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY TURN TO THE
N/NW. BUT WITH FLOW ALOFT REMAINING FROM THE SW...SURFACE WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE S AND INHIBIT LONG DURATIONS OF COOLING FLOW. TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE TO AVG BY DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY 70-75 WITH SOME SLIGHT
COOLING BY SAT/SUN. A BIT ABOVE AVG AT NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM AROUND
50 TO NEAR 60 SE COAST...COOLING SLIGHTLY BY SUN NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS ROTATING IN FROM
THE OCEAN. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL COVER ALL THE TAF SITES BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH RIC BEING THE LAST AREA. CLOSER TO THE COAST MANY
OF THE CIGS ARE IFR. BELIEVE ENOUGH MIXING WILL OCCUR TO PUSH THE
CLOUDS UP TO MVFR LEVELS AT ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM ALL SHOW CIGS LOWERING
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BRING IFR CIGS BACK TO ALL AIRPORTS
EXCEPT RIC WHICH WILL MAINLY BE MVFR BUT COULD AT TIMES LOWER TO
IFR ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GIVING LOWER VSBY TONIGHT HOWEVER LOOKING
AT THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND SREF ALL INDICATE KEEPING VSBY MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. FINALLY DURING WEDNESDAY THE COASTAL LOW WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO FROM
THE LAND. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH SHOULD RAISE CIGS TO VFR INLAND AND MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
COULD FINALLY HAVE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
W/ NE WINDS 15-25 KT. HV EVEN SEEN SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WHERE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTEST.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
TODAY, AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES FARTHER OFF THE SE
COAST. SLACKENING PRES GRADIENT WL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH WL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY NE IN
DIRECTION, AT ~10-15 KT THIS AFTN.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST EARLY ON THIS MORNING IN THE
LOWER BAY AND COASTAL ZONES (WAVES 3-4 FT AND WINDS ~20 KT IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE BAY AND SEAS 5-7 FT NRN ZONES TO 7-9 FT SRN ZONES). HOWEVER,
THINK THAT SCA SHOULD BE LOWERED IN THE CHES BAY WEST OF THE BAY
BRIDGE TUNNEL LATER TODAY. WL ALSO TAKE DOWN THE HIGH SURF DAVY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS WITH THE 7AM PACKAGE.
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SLIDE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA LEVELS BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING OFFSHORE (W-SW) ON THU WITH WINDS AOB 15KT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BY WED NGT, CROSSING THE
WATERS THU AFTN/NGT. RATHER MODEST NORTHERLY SURGE SHOULD RESULT IN
CONDITIONS REMAINING SUB-SCA WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS THEN
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE E-SE FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 FOOT
TIDAL ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ERN VA RIVERS.
ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND A FOOT OR LESS ALONG THE COASTAL
ERN SHORE. WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTING SOME OF THE EXISTING COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES DOWN TO STATEMENTS LATER THIS MORNING PER LATEST
OBS FALLING CLOSE TO 0.5 FT BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS W/
THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE
OUTER BANKS OF CURRITUCK COUNTY (DUCK) AS MINOR THRESHOLDS ARE
LIKELY. HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...AIDED BY CONTINUED NE FLOW AND A FULL MOON BUT LATEST
DATA SUGGESTS WATER LEVELS WILL FALL A BIT SHORT OF MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. SEE CFWAKQ FOR MORE SITE- SPECIFIC TIDAL INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ632-
633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MAM/JAB
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
129 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/HYDROLOGY
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE EVENING HOURS WILL BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AS LOW PRESSURE
DRIVES FROM MINNESOTA AND OVER MICHIGANS UPPER PENINSULA. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...INCLUDING LOCALLY
HIGH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN. MUCH COOLER AIR THEN PUSHES INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY OF LAKE INDUCED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I DID UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS USING
A COMBINATION OF OUR NEW TOOL...CONSSHORT...THE HRRR 13-14Z...THE
RAP 13Z AND LOOKING AT THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS. MY CURRENT THINKING
IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS WEST OF US WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO MID
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WEAKENS. HOWEVER... ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE BAND GETS TO MID-LAKE MICHIGAN IT SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY. THERE IS MARGINALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SO I TIMES THE THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN BAND THROUGH THE CWA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHILE IT IS TRUE THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NEAR 60KT... THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS RATHER SHALLOW
AND THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW (ONLY 250-300 J/KG). THE RESULT IS THE
EFFECT SHEAR IS BELOW 30 KNOTS. STILL WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS BELOW
5000 FT AGL AND THE AIR WILL BE DRY BELOW 6000 FT AGL UNTIL THE
RAIN ACTUALLY STARTS SO THAT WOULD ALLOW THE 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
TO MIX DOWN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SO WHILE I DO
NOT SEE SEVERE STORMS THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG GUSTS OF WIND AS
THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
AS TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND IN THE EARLY TO MID
FALL I EXPECT THE HEAVIES RAINFALL TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF US-131
DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCING THE STORMS. IT MAY WELL BE THAT LOCATIONS
NEAR AND NORTH OF HOLLAND COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I AM THINKING AS MUCH AS
1/2 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR FROM THE CONVECTION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN FACT SHOWN ON THE HRRR FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
ALL OF THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH MID
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
TODAY.
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS APPROACHING LOWER MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST A FEW THINGS ARE GOING TO COME TOGETHER
LATER TODAY TO RESULT IN A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG/SVR STORMS.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE CWA AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LI/S NEAR -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. THOSE VALUES
ARE NOT REAL HIGH...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH SHEAR VALUES IN THE
45-55KT RANGE AND FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE A FEW STORMS. WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...
HOWEVER THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO THAT WILL
HELP IN DRAWING MOISTURE NWD. THE STORM THREAT WILL END THIS
EVENING.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
FOLLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THEME OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ONE OF COLDER AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
SPINNING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. MOISTURE DWINDLES SOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF +3C TO -3C THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. LAKE WATER TEMPS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF +17C...SO +4C AND COLDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
LAKE PRECIP. A DEEP TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
WELL BY THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME AROUND...TRENDING
TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE A SHOWERY PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LEADING TO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS. HIGHEST
POPS OBVIOUSLY TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL DRIVE WELL
INLAND. HAVE LOW 50S FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW...BUT CAN
SEE NEEDING TO TREND THIS DOWN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MAINLY MVFR AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING AS A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DETERIORATING BACK TO MAINLY
MVFR WEDNESDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I ADDED WATER SPOUTS TO OUR NEAR SHORE FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
8 AM THURSDAY. THAT IS BASED ON 850 TO LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
15C AND 18C WEDNESDAY AND A CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 8000 FT...
ALL OF WHICH FALL WITHIN OUR WATER SPOUT NOMOGRAM. SO DO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF YOUR BY THE LAKE SHORE WEDNESDAY AND SPOT ONE OF
THEM. I CONTINUED THE SCA....LITTLE QUESTION ABOUT THAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE AROUND ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND ONE HALF AN INCH
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EXISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...JAM
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
138 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER ERN S DAKOTA. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SUPPORTING A WIDE
BAND OF SHRA SPREADING N THRU WRN WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD
WRN UPPER MI. AT 09Z...LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPEARED BE VERY NEAR
KIWD.
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES
EAST...CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...DEEP
LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS DIMINISHES MAKREDLY TODAY AS DOES
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS...APPROACHING AREA OF
SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND PROBABLY COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) WILL BE UTILIZED OVER THE W
WITH A TREND DOWN TOWARD LIKELY OVER THE E. THIS AFTN...PCPN WILL
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE W AS MAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
SHIFTS E. A RIBBON OF MUCAPE (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 200-300J/KG PER
NAM) SHIFTS ACROSS MAINLY SRN/ERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WITH MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...SHRA
MAY MOSTLY END FOR A TIME ACROSS THAT AREA.
DIMINISHING DEFORMATION ZONE -SHRA WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT SHRA. DEVELOPING UPSLOPE AS WINDS BACK FROM EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHRA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON...WITH MUCH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AT 12Z WED...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH A CLOSED 850MB AND SFC TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE ERN CWA
/DEPENDING ON MODEL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MUST OF UPPER MI DUE TO A TROWAL ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIP EXITING THE ERN CWA AROUND OF JUST AFTER 18Z WED. MODELS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
LAST TOO LONG AS A SFC AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA
BY 18Z WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z THU.
WED NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER THE
RIDGING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THU LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS SURGING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CHANCE
CATEGORY UNTIL LATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AND WILL EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
EFFECT THE CWA...BUT DETAILS WITH THESE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH SYSTEMS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. AS LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C BY 00Z SAT AND MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THEY WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMP THROUGH SAT...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
IF/WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CWA. MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE A FEW DEGREES COLDER BY
SAT...BUT THAT WAS BECAUSE THEY HAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER ENERGY
MOVING IN FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE
COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS RUNS ARE INSTEAD SLOWER
WITH THE COLD AIR...BRINGING -5C TO -7C 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD SUN
INTO MON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS
OF 9C TO 13C. PTYPE IS ALSO COMPLEX AND DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER TEMPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT WHEN NEAR SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MORE AS RAIN...OR
AT LEAST MELT ANY SNOW AS IT FALLS. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A LOT OF
SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN
STORE FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED INTO EACH OF THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE
AREA. CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED INTERMITTENTLY TO IFR AT EACH OF THE
TAFS SITES WITH A STEADY IFR TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. -SHRA IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR EACH TAF SITE AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY
DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED -SHRA AT EACH SITE. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE
FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW PRES OVER SE SD WILL MOVE E...CROSSING SRN AND ERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT AND REACHING QUEBEC WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT E
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OCNL
GALE FORCE WINDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-25KT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WINDS BACK NORTHERLY...
20-30KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E WED/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E
AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI. AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
110 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AFTER A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION THURSDAY...SHOWERY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO EARLIER THINKING...WITH RAIN STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THAT LINES UP WITH THE LATEST RUC/HRRR/
RADAR ANALYSES. STILL WAITING TO SEE IF WE CAN FIRE ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO WANE WITH THAT IDEA AS
INSTABILITY PER LATEST RUC ANALYSIS LOOKS EVEN MORE LIMITED...
COURTESY OF STUBBORN CAPPING ARRIVING UP AROUND 650MB QUICKLY
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALSO...REALLY STARTING TO WONDER IF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL EFFECTIVELY GET SPLIT BY THE BEST QPF AS THE MAIN
RAIN BAND TRACKS TOWARD THE STRAITS AND RENEWED DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE OVER THE LOWER LAKES/IL/IN WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
INFLOW SETS UP BY AFTERNOON. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
RAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A FAIRLY QUIET FIRST HALF OF THE DAY NOW WELL UNDERWAY...BUT ONE
DOESN`T HAVE TO LOOK TOO FAR UPSTREAM TO SEE OUT NEXT ROUND OF
WEATHER KNOCKING ON THE DOOR. IMPRESSIVE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IS
SPILLING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AT THIS LATE MORNING HOUR...WITH
A NOTABLE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING NORTHWARD INTO THIS
FEATURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEST AXIS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND SAID MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
DRIVE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES...AND
WISCONSIN IN PARTICULAR...WHILE AN ELONGATED AXIS OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC AND DEFORMATION FORCING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINS (AND EVEN SOME SNOW) BACK OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
OUR BIGGEST ISSUE FOR TODAY IS JUST WHEN RAIN MAY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE AS THE AMBIENT AIRMASS ACROSS MICHIGAN IS QUITE DRY.
NEED PROOF? SEE 12Z APX RAOB WITH A HUGE DRY WEDGE BETWEEN 875 AND
550MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
TRENDS...THINK SLIGHTLY SLOWER IS BETTER...AND IN LINE WITH THE
OVERNIGHT CREW`S FORECAST...HAVE CONTINUED TO DELAY POPS THROUGH
ROUGHLY 18Z WESTERN AREAS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT TAKE CONTROL FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A
PRONOUNCED AXIS OF 850-500MB Q-VECTOR FORCING DRAPING ITSELF
ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AXIS (PWAT VALUES SLIDING TOWARD 1+ INCHES)...WE SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE REALIZING A BAND OF RAIN CROSSING THE AREA...BUT
MAINLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDER THREAT WILL ALSO BE
THERE WITH QUITE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WORKING
OVERHEAD (SEE 12Z OAX RAOB FOR A PREVIEW)...THOUGH OVERALL
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIMITED GIVEN NOT TERRIBLY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY MOST SPOTS...THOUGH
WITH A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. EARLIER BATCH OF LOWER STRATUS CONTINUES TO
SLIDE UP THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE AND ALSO INTO EASTERN
UPPER...AND THAT SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO
SEEING SOME LOWER STRATUS INLAND HIGHER TERRAIN...WHICH IS ALSO
TAKING QUITE SOME TIME TO MIX OUT. SO THE GIST OF THINGS WILL BE
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WITH GOING HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE
50S LOOKING ON TARGET FOR THE MOMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
INDEED LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NE LOWER IN A RELATIVELY
MORE MOIST SE FLOW COMING IN OFF LAKE HURON. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO INCREASE...RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKY ALL AREAS. SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE LIKELY FOR A LITTLE WHILE
THIS MORNING...BEFORE TOTALLY CLOUDY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED AS FAR AS THE
MIDDLE 20S IN THE COLDEST OF LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS NE LOWER...IN
SLACKEST GRADIENT. READINGS DOWNWIND OF THE WARMER LAKES WERE
STILL IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S. QUITE THE LARGE RANGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CURRENTLY...DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
IA/NE BORDER AND EASTERN KANSAS. STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS/WAA IS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS MN/WESTERN WI AND BACK
ACROSS IN WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WIDESPREAD RAINS WERE OCCURRING HERE...WHILE A BAND OF RAIN IS
ASSOCIATED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CLAPS
OF THUNDER. WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE...WAA ALOFT IS
BRINGING IN SOME INCREASED CIRRUS. WE ARE STILL WITHIN THE DRIEST
CORE OF H8-H7 AIR...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO TUMBLE RATHER
EFFICIENTLY AWAY FROM WINDS OFF THE LAKES (MAINLY EASTERN
CHIP/MACK AND THE NE LOWER COAST). TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
LOWER 30S IN THE LOW LYING AREAS...WITH AS "MILD" AS THE LOWER 40S
IN AND AROUND THE WARMER LAKES. ALSO...NO SIGN OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS/STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT IN SE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON RIGHT
NOW...BUT THAT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
FCST CONCERNS...PRECIP CHANCES AND THUNDER...ALONG WITH HIGHS
TODAY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO WISCONSIN BY
EVENING...THEN INTO EASTERN UPPER/WHITEFISH BAY LATE TONIGHT WHILE
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. INITIAL BAND OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION RAIN
WILL WORK TO MOISTEN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...CAN SEE SOME LIGHTER
RAINS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF
STRONGEST WAA ATTACHED TO ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT. THIS STARTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN CWA...AND THIS EVENING EAST. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS AROUND WHILE WE ARE STILL TRYING TO SATURATE
THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE DRY H8-H7 AIR
CLINGING ON WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS TO STRIP OUT ALOFT...IN ADVANCE
OF A DRY SLOT/STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT (H5-H7)/COLD FRONT. FROM A
QPF STANDPOINT...AM NOT THRILLED WITH THIS SYSTEM`S OUTPUT.
LOWERED MODEL QPF TO 0.10"-0.15". COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRIKES ON
LEADING EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM. THE DRY SLOT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PERIODIC DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKE A
DECENT BET ON FCST BFR SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE EVEN
EASTERN UPPER WILL GET DRY-SLOTTED...BUT MOISTURE SHOULD BE A BIT
DEEPER UP THERE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN-ISH/DRIZZLY WEATHER. NOT THAT
THERE IS TOO MUCH DIFFERENCE REALLY. THE MAIN SYSTEM DEFORMATION
AND TROWAL SIGNATURE/SFC TROUGH WILL BE CLOSEST ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...AND THERE ARE A FEW INDICATORS THAT THIS COULD ROLL OVER
INTO EASTERN UPPER BY DAYBREAK FOR SOME MORE EFFICIENT FORCING FOR
RAIN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFICULT...AS LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION IS OFFSET BY INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS. IN THICKER
CLOUD/LESS WAA ACROSS THE NW CWA...WILL HAVE MID/UPPER 50S AND
THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE SE CWA NEARER THE SAG BAY WITH
LOWER HALF OF THE 60S. LOWS TONIGHT IN LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THICKER LOW LEVEL CLOUD WILL OFFSET THE
COOLING...AND CAN SEE LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS. A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTION IS NOW EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...PRONOUNCED RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO A FEW DAYS OF SHOWERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. THE MAIN LONG
TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DUE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS WELL AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST POPS/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND MICHIGAN DUE TO A BIT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT (AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO ABOUT +2C BY 00Z THU YIELDING
LAKE/850 MB DELTA TS IN THE MIDDLE TEENS). HIGHS IN THE DAMP AND
COOL MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY DRY OUT THE REGION
(MEAN 1000-500 MB RH ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT) YIELDING PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORCING
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SHOWN TO PERIODICALLY DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE FLOW BRINGING REINFORCING SHOTS OF CHILLY AIR.
UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING AND TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES IS NOT
HANDLED THE BEST...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE GIVING VERY LITTLE INSIGHT
AS FAR AS CRUCIAL DETAILS LIKE WIND FIELDS...THOUGH A GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE YOUNG SEASON WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW
ROUNDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THERE STILL COULD END UP BEING A
FEW WET SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS 850
MB TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN -2 AND -4 C...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST
THEN ONLY THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES AS MORE PIECES OF
ENERGY DROP DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH CONTINUED COOL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
VFR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A QUICK DECREASE TOWARD IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BAND OF RAIN SLIDES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
SITES. COULD SEE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT THAT
CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA...WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SWITCHING QUICKLY
SOUTHWESTERLY BUT REMAINING GUSTY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
BACK TO MVFR WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THOSE LASTING RIGHT
ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
UPDATE: HAVE DECIDED TO FIRE OFF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST OF
THE WATERS FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES FOR
MANY AREAS WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHUNK OF WIND
JUST OFF THE DECK AND IT WON`T TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET SOME HIGHER
GUSTS DOWN TO THE WATER. THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS LOOKS TO BE
INTO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT QUICKLY WORKS
THROUGH THE WATERS AND WIND DIRECTIONS SWITCH TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST.
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS...AS THEY VEER FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTH
AND THEN SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF RAIN WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER WILL ROLL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
PASSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
ABRUPTLY TO OUT OF THE NW. WINDS NOW LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...DESPITE GROWING INSTABILITY.
WINDS WILL BACK SW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE A STRONGER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ345-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ346>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LAWRENCE
SYNOPSIS...AJS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...SMD/LAWRENCE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1136 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WE/RE HEADING INTO A WET PERIOD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES BY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION AND HIGHS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I DID UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS USING
A COMBINATION OF OUR NEW TOOL...CONSSHORT...THE HRRR 13-14Z...THE
RAP 13Z AND LOOKING AT THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOPS. MY CURRENT THINKING
IS THE AREA OF SHOWERS WEST OF US WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO MID
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET ALSO WEAKENS. HOWEVER... ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE BAND GETS TO MID-LAKE MICHIGAN IT SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY. THERE IS MARGINALLY ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
SO I TIMES THE THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN BAND THROUGH THE CWA FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO MID EVENING.
AS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...WHILE IT IS TRUE THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NEAR 60KT... THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH IS RATHER SHALLOW
AND THE CAPE IS VERY NARROW (ONLY 250-300 J/KG). THE RESULT IS THE
EFFECT SHEAR IS BELOW 30 KNOTS. STILL WE HAVE 35 TO 40 KNOTS BELOW
5000 FT AGL AND THE AIR WILL BE DRY BELOW 6000 FT AGL UNTIL THE
RAIN ACTUALLY STARTS SO THAT WOULD ALLOW THE 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS
TO MIX DOWN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SO WHILE I DO
NOT SEE SEVERE STORMS THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG GUSTS OF WIND AS
THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
AS TYPICAL OF THIS SORT OF FRONTAL RAIN BAND IN THE EARLY TO MID
FALL I EXPECT THE HEAVIES RAINFALL TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF US-131
DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCING THE STORMS. IT MAY WELL BE THAT LOCATIONS
NEAR AND NORTH OF HOLLAND COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE CONVECTIVE LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I AM THINKING AS MUCH AS
1/2 INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR FROM THE CONVECTION MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN FACT SHOWN ON THE HRRR FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW.
ALL OF THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END ONCE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH MID
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH PCPN CHANCES ALONG WITH TSRA POTENTIAL
TODAY.
A DYNAMIC SYSTEM IS APPROACHING LOWER MICHIGAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A
LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST A FEW THINGS ARE GOING TO COME TOGETHER
LATER TODAY TO RESULT IN A FEW POTENTIALLY STRONG/SVR STORMS.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE WEST OF THE CWA AND A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LI/S NEAR -2C AND SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. THOSE VALUES
ARE NOT REAL HIGH...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH SHEAR VALUES IN THE
45-55KT RANGE AND FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE A FEW STORMS. WIND WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...
HOWEVER THE LLJ IS PROGD TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30KTS SO THAT WILL
HELP IN DRAWING MOISTURE NWD. THE STORM THREAT WILL END THIS
EVENING.
COOLER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
FOLLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE/LL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THEME OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS ONE OF COLDER AIR AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WAVE CAN CURRENTLY BE SEEN
SPINNING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. MOISTURE DWINDLES SOME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS.
SPEAKING OF INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE...850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF +3C TO -3C THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. LAKE WATER TEMPS ARE ON
THE ORDER OF +17C...SO +4C AND COLDER WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
LAKE PRECIP. A DEEP TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
WELL BY THE GFS...AND THE ECMWF HAS FINALLY COME AROUND...TRENDING
TOWARD THE DEEPER GFS SOLUTION. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE A SHOWERY PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE LEADING TO A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS. HIGHEST
POPS OBVIOUSLY TOWARDS THE LAKE...BUT THE SHOWERS WILL DRIVE WELL
INLAND. HAVE LOW 50S FOR HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW...BUT CAN
SEE NEEDING TO TREND THIS DOWN...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 751 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...21Z OR SO...MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 00Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
IFR VSBYS TOO. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND 04Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WITH CEILINGS LIFTING BACK TO VFR AFTER 06Z.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
I ADDED WATER SPOUTS TO OUR NEAR SHORE FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
8 AM THURSDAY. THAT IS BASED ON 850 TO LAKE TEMP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
15C AND 18C WEDNESDAY AND A CONVECTIVE DEPTH OF AROUND 8000 FT...
ALL OF WHICH FALL WITHIN OUR WATER SPOUT NOMOGRAM. SO DO NOT BE
SURPRIZED IF YOUR BY THE LAKE SHORE WEDNESDAY AND SPOT ONE OF
THEM. I CONTINUED THE SCA....LITTLE QUESTION ABOUT THAT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW OF THE STORMS TODAY MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LMZ844>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...93
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER ERN S DAKOTA. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SUPPORTING A WIDE
BAND OF SHRA SPREADING N THRU WRN WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD
WRN UPPER MI. AT 09Z...LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPEARED BE VERY NEAR
KIWD.
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES
EAST...CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...DEEP
LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS DIMINISHES MAKREDLY TODAY AS DOES
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS...APPROACHING AREA OF
SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND PROBABLY COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) WILL BE UTILIZED OVER THE W
WITH A TREND DOWN TOWARD LIKELY OVER THE E. THIS AFTN...PCPN WILL
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE W AS MAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
SHIFTS E. A RIBBON OF MUCAPE (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 200-300J/KG PER
NAM) SHIFTS ACROSS MAINLY SRN/ERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WITH MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...SHRA
MAY MOSTLY END FOR A TIME ACROSS THAT AREA.
DIMINISHING DEFORMATION ZONE -SHRA WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT SHRA. DEVELOPING UPSLOPE AS WINDS BACK FROM EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHRA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON...WITH MUCH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AT 12Z WED...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH A CLOSED 850MB AND SFC TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE ERN CWA
/DEPENDING ON MODEL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MUST OF UPPER MI DUE TO A TROWAL ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIP EXITING THE ERN CWA AROUND OF JUST AFTER 18Z WED. MODELS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
LAST TOO LONG AS A SFC AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA
BY 18Z WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z THU.
WED NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER THE
RIDGING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THU LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS SURGING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CHANCE
CATEGORY UNTIL LATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AND WILL EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
EFFECT THE CWA...BUT DETAILS WITH THESE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH SYSTEMS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. AS LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C BY 00Z SAT AND MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THEY WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMP THROUGH SAT...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
IF/WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CWA. MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE A FEW DEGREES COLDER BY
SAT...BUT THAT WAS BECAUSE THEY HAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER ENERGY
MOVING IN FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE
COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS RUNS ARE INSTEAD SLOWER
WITH THE COLD AIR...BRINGING -5C TO -7C 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD SUN
INTO MON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS
OF 9C TO 13C. PTYPE IS ALSO COMPLEX AND DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER TEMPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT WHEN NEAR SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MORE AS RAIN...OR
AT LEAST MELT ANY SNOW AS IT FALLS. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A LOT OF
SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN
STORE FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHRA ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW WILL FALL TO MVFR...THEN
IFR TODAY. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER FURTHER TO LIFR...
ESPECIALLY AT KIWD/KSAW AS WINDS BACK TO A MORE DIRECT NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE DIRECTION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW PRES OVER SE SD WILL MOVE E...CROSSING SRN AND ERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT AND REACHING QUEBEC WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT E
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OCNL
GALE FORCE WINDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-25KT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WINDS BACK NORTHERLY...
20-30KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E WED/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E
AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI. AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
526 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL
LOW OVER ERN S DAKOTA. STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS AND
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE SUPPORTING A WIDE
BAND OF SHRA SPREADING N THRU WRN WI/FAR WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TOWARD
WRN UPPER MI. AT 09Z...LEADING EDGE OF PCPN APPEARED BE VERY NEAR
KIWD.
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY NOW AS MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MID LEVEL LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES
EAST...CROSSING THE UPPER LAKES WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...DEEP
LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS DIMINISHES MAKREDLY TODAY AS DOES
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THUS...APPROACHING AREA OF
SHRA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND PROBABLY COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD
OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST POPS (CATEGORICAL) WILL BE UTILIZED OVER THE W
WITH A TREND DOWN TOWARD LIKELY OVER THE E. THIS AFTN...PCPN WILL
BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT OVER THE W AS MAIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
SHIFTS E. A RIBBON OF MUCAPE (PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 200-300J/KG PER
NAM) SHIFTS ACROSS MAINLY SRN/ERN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
SO...THERE MAY BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. OTHERWISE...WITH MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO SCNTRL/ERN UPPER MI THIS EVENING...SHRA
MAY MOSTLY END FOR A TIME ACROSS THAT AREA.
DIMINISHING DEFORMATION ZONE -SHRA WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF UPPER MI MOST LIKELY TO SEE
MORE PERSISTENT SHRA. DEVELOPING UPSLOPE AS WINDS BACK FROM EASTERLY
TO NORTHERLY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT TO THE
SHRA AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LONG TERM
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON...WITH MUCH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER
EXPECTED.
AT 12Z WED...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH A CLOSED 850MB AND SFC TROUGH OVER OR NEAR THE ERN CWA
/DEPENDING ON MODEL...BUT THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA/.
PRECIP SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER MUST OF UPPER MI DUE TO A TROWAL ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE 850MB LOW. SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC
PRECIP EXITING THE ERN CWA AROUND OF JUST AFTER 18Z WED. MODELS ARE
ALSO HINTING AT SOME LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP AS 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C BY 18Z OVER CENTRAL AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THAT THE LAKE ENHANCED/UPSLOPE PRECIP WILL
LAST TOO LONG AS A SFC AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE WRN CWA
BY 18Z WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AROUND 00Z THU.
WED NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY IN MANY SPOTS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT UNDER THE
RIDGING...BUT CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S INLAND TO THE 30S ELSEWHERE.
THU LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AN UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS SURGING INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW CHANCE
CATEGORY UNTIL LATE.
EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINANT FEATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS...AND WILL EVEN MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FLOWING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL
EFFECT THE CWA...BUT DETAILS WITH THESE SHORTER WAVE LENGTH SYSTEMS
ARE FAR MORE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. AS LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...850MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C BY 00Z SAT AND MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE
THEY WILL STAY AROUND THAT TEMP THROUGH SAT...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON
IF/WHEN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CAN DRAG REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR
INTO THE CWA. MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WERE A FEW DEGREES COLDER BY
SAT...BUT THAT WAS BECAUSE THEY HAD THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER ENERGY
MOVING IN FASTER. STILL THINK THAT THE QUICKER ENTRANCE OF THE
COLDER AIR IS POSSIBLE...BUT PREDICTABILITY OF THAT ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CURRENT MODELS RUNS ARE INSTEAD SLOWER
WITH THE COLD AIR...BRINGING -5C TO -7C 850MB TEMPS OVERHEAD SUN
INTO MON. THIS WOULD LEAD TO PURE LAKE EFFECT GIVEN LAKE SFC TEMPS
OF 9C TO 13C. PTYPE IS ALSO COMPLEX AND DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER TEMPS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SNOW WILL MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHT WHEN NEAR SFC TEMPS ARE COOLER. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP PRECIP MORE AS RAIN...OR
AT LEAST MELT ANY SNOW AS IT FALLS. STILL UNCERTAIN WITH A LOT OF
SPECIFIC DETAILS...BUT COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER IS DEFINITELY IN
STORE FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR IN THE
MORNING AND IFR BY AFTERNOON AS RAIN MOVES IN AND INCREASES IN
INTENSITY. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LOWER
CIGS/VSBY WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY AT SAW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 522 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW PRES OVER SE SD WILL MOVE E...CROSSING SRN AND ERN UPPER MI
TONIGHT AND REACHING QUEBEC WED NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW...EXPECT E
TO NE WINDS OF 20-30KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. COASTAL CONVERGENCE/FUNNELING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN OCNL
GALE FORCE WINDS WHERE COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS MOST PRONOUNCED. OVER
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
15-25KT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA AND WINDS BACK NORTHERLY...
20-30KT WINDS WILL SHIFT E ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT/WED MORNING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH W TO E WED/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER E
AND A WEAK SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE AOB 20KT THU/FRI. AS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY DISTURBANCES DROP ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1138 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
.UPDATE:
Issued at 839 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
No significant changes needed to going forecast. Band of rain
continues to slowly move east across Missouri at mid evening.
Rainfall amounts have been light as it has struggled with a constant
feed of low level dry air advection from the east. Latest runs of
the HRRR suggests that this band will slowly diminish through
midnight, while the line of storms extending from the Minnesota
into central Kansas will eventually move into the CWA after
midnight. The latest RAP and previous models confirm this idea and
depict the strong low level moisture convergence moving into the
CWA ahead of the mid level trough, so will keep likely/categorical
chances of showers/isolated thunderstorms going late tonight and
Tuesday morning. Only minor tweaking needed to rest of the forecast.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
WAA precipitation is expected to spread across the area tonight from
west to east. Another round of precipitation is expected tomorrow
with the cold frontal passage. Although the air mass is initially
fairly dry this afternoon with dew points in the 40s generally north
of a line from KCOU to KSTL, recent MSAS analyses of surface
equivalent potential temperature show that the E-W portion of the
stalled cold front has been making steady northward progress as a
warm front over the last few hours, bringing higher dew points into
MO/IL. In addition to the ongoing top-down saturation processes at
work, this low level moisture advection should help saturate the
column ahead of the advancing precipitation shield associated with
the NW-SE portion of the warm front. LLJ moisture convergence along
this boundary is forecast to persist through the night as it
progresses eastward. Meager model forecasts of MUCAPE between 00-12z
suggest that most of the precipitation will fall as rain showers
with perhaps a few isolated embedded thunderstorms. Overnight lows
are expected to be much warmer than last night due to ample cloud
cover and steady southeast to south winds.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
Going forecast trends still look quite good for Tuesday and into
Tuesday evening, with 12z runs continuing to support the faster
ewd movement of the system across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Showers and thunderstorms that work into the region overnight
should be winding down on Tuesday morning over northwest sections
of the CWA as cold front pushes through this area and jet and
associated dry slot surges around the base of the upper low. From
southeast Missouri into southern Illinois showers and scattered
thunderstorms should still be going strong through mid-morning as
isentropic ascent of very moisture-laden airmass and moisture
advection remains focused over this area. While PoPs will
certainly linger over this part of the CWA into the afternoon,
threat/coverage should be less than that of the morning as it
appears lift will not be as strong during this time. It may be
that once the morning precip winds down any additional precip will
be tied to activity along the actual cold front (as suggested by
the 4km WRF), but will leave this additional "fine-tuning" until
specific trends are more clear.
Last vestiges of showers and isolated thunderstorms should exit far
southeast sections of the CWA Tuesday evening with the passage of
the cold front, leaving dry conditions across the region for the
remainder of the night and into Wednesday. However, cold air SC
spiralling around low should drop out of Iowa and spin its way
across at least the northern half of our CWA late Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. This cloudiness should then thin out during the
day as upper system drifts into southern Canada. These clouds, as
well as a light west/northwest surface wind, may keep temps from
falling too much Tuesday night and have gone with lows in the mid to
upper 40s over most of the area. Clouds should also inhibit warmup
during the day on Wednesday in some areas, and it may be that far
northern section of the CWA will struggle to reach 60.
NWP solutions are coming into better agreement with upper level
system for Wednesday night, with all solutions now showing strong
mid- level forcing from eastern Ozarks into the southern half of IL.
Have tweeked going PoPs a bit to include most areas along and
south of a MYJ- PPQ line for late Wednesday night, and have
continued these into Thursday for parts of the FA. I have left
PoPs over our far northern counties (including UIN) in the slight
chance range for now as best forcing appears to occur well south,
however some model qpfs are painting very light QPF as far N as
se IA, so will have to keep an eye on this area.
Medium range solutions continue to paint a broad UA trof over much
of the CONUS for the end of this week and into the weekend, with
several shortwaves dropping through the base of the trof during this
time frame. It`s certainly possible that one of these may bring us
a bit of light precip, but timing/locations of these systems are
varying so much from run to run and model to model don`t have enough
confidence to pin down any given time period. So, main focus in
the Thursday-Monday time frame will be a continuation of below
normal temps, and PoPs remaining below chance category for now.
Truett
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2013
Expect light ra/sprinkles to continue at COU/UIN until heavier
precip arrives late tonight. Have timed in two bands of precip
into terminals into sunrise Tues morning. Sprinkles may also begin
at SUS/CPS, but with little on radar attm, will go with vcsh for
now. The two bands mentioned are expected to morph into one line
as it moves E. Winds will become wly behind the fnt with clouds
lingering into the afternoon. Winds shud diminish with clouds
clearing by sunset or shortly after. Stratus deck may move
into/develop and affect UIN and COU, but shud be beyond the
current TAF period.
Specifics for KSTL: Very light ra or sprinkles will be possible
thru the night. Two bands of shra over far wrn MO/ern KS are
expected to merge and reach terminal soon after sunrise. Behind
this precip, MVFR cigs are expected to linger into/thru the
afternoon with gusty wly winds. Winds shud diminish with clouds
clearing around or shortly after sunset.
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
909 PM MDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST UPDATE TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND TYPE FOR
TONIGHT. SREF ENSEMBLE HAS LIGHT RAIN BUT ALMOST NO SNOW TONIGHT. THIS
AGREES WITH CURRENT TREND THAT HAS TEMPERATURES FALLING SLOWING IN
AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LEFT SOME SLIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN A FEW AREAS WHERE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWEST.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS BACK EDGE OF PPT PAST GLASGOW WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS AREA IS FORECAST
BY HRRR AND MOST LONGER RANGE MODELS TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA
BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS TROUGH/FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY. MARTIN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE FIRST AND LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST SYSTEM
IN THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER FLOW IS TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GREATEST OVER
CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THE BETTER OROGRAPHIC ASSISTANCE. NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL ALLOW COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM
BUT TOO LATE TO MAKE ANY IMPACTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE BEST
CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR OVER THE SE ZONES WHERE 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
ABOUT -2*C AND THE SLOWER MODELS HOLD ONTO PRECIP INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER FLOW VEERS INTO THURSDAY WHERE THE FLOW WILL BE NNW. LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND A BRIEF LATE-DAY SPRINKLE.
ON FRIDAY...MID-LEVEL NW WINDS INCREASE A BIT...POSSIBLY CLOSE TO
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM CANADA. TFJ
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OCCUPYING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT AND A
LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE WEST. THIS HAS PLACED THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY NW TO SE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE NUDGED INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY PUTTING NEMONT
MORE ON THE WARM AND DRY SIDE. HOWEVER CONTINUOUS NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING ABOVE NORMAL.
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE DOWN THE BOUNDARY ON
SUNDAY TO BRING OVERCAST...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY
OVER AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM WHITEWATER TO CIRCLE TO TERRY. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS NEMONT WILL PRODUCE
BRISK NORTHWEST WIND OF 15-25KT.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...BOTH THE 12Z EC AND THE GFS WERE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVERRUNNING NEMONT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID STRATUS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THEREFORE
SPREAD LOW POPS INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS LOOK DRIER BY MID WEEK.
SCT
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SET UP...THE AXIS OF A LARGE COLD ARCTIC TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH MANITOBA AND INTO NUNAVUT. TO THE
WEST OF THIS...A LARGE RIDGE RUNS NORTH FROM OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORIES. NORTHEAST MONTANA BEGINS WEDGED BETWEEN THESE TWO
VERY LARGE AIR-MASSES WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN NORTH
TO NORTHWEST PROVIDING AN EXPRESS LANE FOR COLD AIR AND CREATING
AN WEST TO EAST WARM TO COLD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SUNDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR EAST. WITH THE
BOUNDARY/GRADIENT WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH THESE SHOWERS MAY END UP
IN THE DAKOTAS AND MISS US ENTIRELY. SO CHANCES ARE NOT VERY HIGH.
MONDAY ONWARD...AT THIS POINT ENSEMBLES STILL HOLD TO ROUGHLY A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUT BEGIN TO EMBED POORLY TIMED WAVES LARGER
THAN THE TYPICAL SHORTWAVE WHICH ARE OUT OF PHASE WITH EAST OTHER.
THIS COULD MEAN A TEMPORARY RISE FROM ANY WEAK CHINOOK EVENT AND
RIDGE OR COOL DOWN/ISOLATED SHOWER FROM ANY TROUGH. FOR NOW...
HAVE SKEWED TOWARD CONS AND CLIMO PRODUCTS WITH POPS BEING FAIRLY
DRY. GAH
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS.
AREA WINDS: OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND SLOWLY CALMING TO LESS THAN
10 KTS OVERNIGHT... THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION: AS OF 8PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF CLEARING ARRIVING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ABOUT TO PASS THE KGGW TERMINAL. THIS
CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING WITH ALL TERMINALS CLEAR OF RAIN BY 12Z. A SMALL CHANCE
FOR TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGDV BEFORE TOTAL
CLEARING TONIGHT... BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AND CHANCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE DIRECTLY IN THE TAFS.
CEILINGS: MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO ONLY BE HOVERING IN THE AREAS OF
STRONGEST PRECIPITATION AND SHOULD LIFT FAST WITH THE CLEARING
PRECIPITATION.
GAH
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS HASTINGS NE
116 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS
MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS EASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THE ASSUMPTION OF CLEARING
SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS...FELT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT AND THUS HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AH...THE JOYS OF SKY COVER FORECASTING AS FAST-MOVING...ALTERNATING
LOBES OF CLOUDS/CLEARING ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND A DEPARTING
LOW. JUST SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED 2 HOURS
AGO...WHAT HAD BEEN A NEARLY SOLID DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA HAS MOVED OUT/SCATTERED OUT...MEANING
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOW LOOKING TO AT LEAST START THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SIDE...EXCEPT FOR A BIT
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE BRUSHING UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN EDGES.
SHORT TERM LOW CLOUD PROGS SUCH AS FROM THE HRRR ARE STILL
SUGGESTING THAT STRATUS WILL FILL BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MAJORITY
OF NEB ZONES FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH YET THIS MORNING...WITH KS ZONES
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVEN THAT ONLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN-MOST FRINGES...THE MAIN CONCERNS TURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLE
IF NOT LIKELY FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
NOW...AND WILL DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
LOW TEMPS/CLOUD TRENDS TO HOPEFULLY RAISE CONFIDENCE IN A
POTENTIAL HEADLINE. THIS ALSO ALLOWS THE WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE FOR THE TIME BEING...AS THE WIND CONCERNS COME FIRST.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BRISK MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...A SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AVERAGING 15-25
MPH EXCEPT FOR SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THESE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEPARTING 1004 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...AND A 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MT. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT
THE VIGOROUS...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN SD...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
CARVED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS...BOUNDED ON
THE SOUTH BY A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NM TO IA. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS
ROUGHLY BISECTED BY A RATHER SOLID BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CENTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AGL...WITH AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-
GENEVA LINE UNDER THESE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHILE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THESE TWO DISTINCT CLOUD REGIMES...STRONGER WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES REASONABLY UNIFORM...WITH MOST AREAS
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 38-44 DEGREES.
TURNING TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST...NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE EVOLUTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD FIELD WILL LIKELY PROVE CHALLENGING FOR
SHORT TERM SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BUT STARTING WITH THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL GRADUALLY REACH THE
MN/WI BORDER BY SUNSET...AS TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT IS
NOW...BUT EASING UP VERY SLOWLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER NOTCH ONCE
DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 850MB...WHERE THERE WILL RESIDE 25-45 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMUM THAT ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NET RESULT...BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE...IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35+ MPH ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STAND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF BREACHING 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND
APPROACHING 45 MPH GUSTS ON A SEMI-REGULAR BASIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE 7 COUNTIES RUNNING FROM 10AM-
5PM...WHICH MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH A PRE-EXISTING ADVISORY
ISSUED BY WFO LBF. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF TODAYS
FORECAST...SKY COVER TRENDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WHILE SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT AS
CURRENTLY SEEN...THE CONSENSUS OF SHORTER TERM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY/CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT
EVENTUALLY LOW STRATUS WILL PIVOT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AND
PROVIDE A RATHER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TO MOST ALL NEB
ZONES...WHILE LEAVING KS ZONES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IN
ADDITION...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATION
EVIDENT AROUND 700MB IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...DID INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ORD-GENOA LINE.
ALTHOUGH TODAY WAS NEVER FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM...OBVIOUSLY THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS COULD EASILY SHAVE A FEW MORE
DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S NORTH...NEAR 50
CENTRAL AND MID-UPPER 50S IN KS ZONES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SKY COVER AND THE RESULTANT EFFECTS ON LOW TEMPS/FROST FORMATION
LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED FOR BEING ONLY 12-24 HOURS AWAY. IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFT EASTWARD...BUT AS IT DOES SO A TRAILING...HIGHLY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE HEART
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PHASED SOMEWHAT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD STILL HOLD UP AT LEAST
5-10 MPH EVEN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND CLOSER TO
15 MPH EARLIER IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. LEANING TOWARD
THE 06Z NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THE NIGHT COULD
VERY WELL START OUT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
ZONES...A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY REGARDING ANY LOWER STRATUS...ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARGUES THAT AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ALSO BE LURKING AROUND.
ALTHOUGH AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAIN...ALSO LINGERED THE
SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SKIES AT LEAST AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY...AND
THUS MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS LOWS...WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND
30-32 IN THE FAR WEST...UP TO 35-36 IN THE EAST. EVEN IF THESE
LOWS ARE REALIZED...BREEZES COULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FROST FORMATION...EXCEPT IN TYPICAL LOWER
ELEVATION/SHELTERED AREAS. IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE UPCOMING
FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...A FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
SUCH AS DAWSON/FURNAS MAY BE CANDIDATES FOR A FREEZE WARNING...AND
AGAIN WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFTS TO GET THE BALL ROLLING ON THESE
POSSIBLE HEADLINES. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER...THAT DUE TO EARLIER
FREEZES ON OCT. 7TH AND/OR OCT. 13TH...VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES IN OUR FAR NORTH WILL NO LONGER BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS CYCLE INCLUDE FROST CHANCES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
CHECKING THE BIG PICTURE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEST SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
FROM B.C. CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...WE SHOULD
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SET UP SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE ONE CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION. THE SET UP LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR FROST AT LEAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...UNLESS WE HAVE A THICK OVERCAST LAYER OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. ALREADY
HAVE PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS.
BY FRIDAY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EC HAVE SHOWN A DECENT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. STILL WAITING FOR THE MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE EC AS IT HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT...BUT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALSO SHOW THIS PATTERN. REGARDING THE SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY...THE OLD EC WAS THE MOST ROBUST IN PRODUCING
QPF...ALL THE WAY FROM CENTRAL NEB DOWN INTO TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS
KEPT MOST OF IT SOUTH OF NEB...AND THE GEM IS EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THAT. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT POPS ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...12Z EC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE CWA. WILL CHECK LATEST RUN
OF EC IF IT COMES IN BEFORE IT IS TIME TO SEND OUT THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
ON AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. STILL WE HAVE MADE IT PAST THE AVERAGE FIRST FROST
DATE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY AT LEAST A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...BUT WILL DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK AS WE LOSE
DIURNAL MIXING AND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
ALTHOUGH LONGER TERM DROUGHT ISSUES STILL REMAIN...THE LAST 3
WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
RECENT 1-2 CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS PER THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. AS FOR THE RAINFALL EVENT FROM MONDAY THE 14TH...A FEW
QUICK NOTES REGARDING OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES...
GRAND ISLAND...SET A NEW OCT. 14 DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD WITH
1.36 INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE RERGRI PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.
HASTINGS...ALTHOUGH THE 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 14TH WAS NOT A
DAILY RECORD...IT DID BOOST THE MONTH-TO-DATE TOTAL TO 4.65
INCHES. THIS NOW PLACES OCT. 2013 AS THE 3RD-WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD DATING BACK 118 YEARS TO 1985. INTERESTINGLY...3 OF THE
TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN WITH PAST 7
YEARS...WITH THE TOP-5 AS FOLLOWS:
1) 6.16 INCHES IN 2008
2) 5.82 INCHES IN 1897
3) 4.65 INCHES IN 2013 (SO FAR)
4) 4.56 INCHES IN 1968
5) 4.32 INCHES IN 2007
PLEASE NOTE THAT HASTINGS PRECIPITATION RECORDS ARE BASED ON NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS (HASTINGS 4N) BETWEEN THE YEARS OF
1895 AND MARCH 1998...WITH RECORDS SINCE APRIL 1998 FROM THE
AUTOMATED SENSOR AT HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ041-048-
049-062>064-075>077-085>087.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NEZ046-047-
060-061-072>074-082>084.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060-061-072.
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ007-019.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005-006-
017-018.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
645 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AH...THE JOYS OF SKY COVER FORECASTING AS FAST-MOVING...ALTERNATING
LOBES OF CLOUDS/CLEARING ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND A DEPARTING
LOW. JUST SINCE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WAS ISSUED 2 HOURS
AGO...WHAT HAD BEEN A NEARLY SOLID DECK OF STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA HAS MOVED OUT/SCATTERED OUT...MEANING
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IS NOW LOOKING TO AT LEAST START THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SIDE...EXCEPT FOR A BIT
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE BRUSHING UP AGAINST THE NORTHERN EDGES.
SHORT TERM LOW CLOUD PROGS SUCH AS FROM THE HRRR ARE STILL
SUGGESTING THAT STRATUS WILL FILL BACK INTO AT LEAST THE MAJORITY
OF NEB ZONES FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH YET THIS MORNING...WITH KS ZONES
STILL EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF REMAINING MOSTLY SUNNY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WITHIN THE CWA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EVEN THAT ONLY CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN-MOST FRINGES...THE MAIN CONCERNS TURN TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLE
IF NOT LIKELY FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. WILL STATE OFF THE
TOP...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
NOW...AND WILL DEFER TO NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
LOW TEMPS/CLOUD TRENDS TO HOPEFULLY RAISE CONFIDENCE IN A
POTENTIAL HEADLINE. THIS ALSO ALLOWS THE WIND ADVISORY TO TAKE
CENTER STAGE FOR THE TIME BEING...AS THE WIND CONCERNS COME FIRST.
08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BRISK MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA...A SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AVERAGING 15-25
MPH EXCEPT FOR SOMEWHAT LIGHTER SPEEDS IN THE FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
THESE WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN BY AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A DEPARTING 1004 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERED NEAR SIOUX
FALLS...AND A 1033MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MT. IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA HIGHLIGHT
THE VIGOROUS...NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
OVER EASTERN SD...WHILE A LARGE-SCALE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE
CARVED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS...BOUNDED ON
THE SOUTH BY A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NM TO IA. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE BEHIND DEPARTING LOWS SUCH AS
THIS...11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CWA IS
ROUGHLY BISECTED BY A RATHER SOLID BATCH OF LOW STRATUS CENTERED
AROUND 2500 FT AGL...WITH AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A KEARNEY-
GENEVA LINE UNDER THESE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WHILE ALMOST
COMPLETELY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. DESPITE THESE TWO DISTINCT CLOUD REGIMES...STRONGER WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES REASONABLY UNIFORM...WITH MOST AREAS
ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 38-44 DEGREES.
TURNING TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST...NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE EVOLUTION
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD FIELD WILL LIKELY PROVE CHALLENGING FOR
SHORT TERM SKY COVER/TEMPERATURE TRENDS. BUT STARTING WITH THE BIG
PICTURE ALOFT...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF
THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS WILL GRADUALLY REACH THE
MN/WI BORDER BY SUNSET...AS TRAILING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IT IS
NOW...BUT EASING UP VERY SLOWLY BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE THIS
MORNING...MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE ANOTHER NOTCH ONCE
DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES...WITH NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
MIXING UP TO AT LEAST 850MB...WHERE THERE WILL RESIDE 25-45 KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND MAXIMUM THAT ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISHES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NET RESULT...BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE...IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL FEATURE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35+ MPH ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL NORTHERN/WESTERN COUNTIES...PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 STAND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF BREACHING 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND
APPROACHING 45 MPH GUSTS ON A SEMI-REGULAR BASIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE 7 COUNTIES RUNNING FROM 10AM-
5PM...WHICH MATCHES UP PRETTY WELL WITH A PRE-EXISTING ADVISORY
ISSUED BY WFO LBF. TURNING TO OTHER ELEMENTS OF TODAYS
FORECAST...SKY COVER TRENDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE. WHILE SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY SHARP SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT AS
CURRENTLY SEEN...THE CONSENSUS OF SHORTER TERM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY/CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST THAT
EVENTUALLY LOW STRATUS WILL PIVOT INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD AND
PROVIDE A RATHER CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY TO MOST ALL NEB
ZONES...WHILE LEAVING KS ZONES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. IN
ADDITION...THE FAR SOUTHERN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/SATURATION
EVIDENT AROUND 700MB IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH THINK ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN RISK WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...DID INSERT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ORD-GENOA LINE.
ALTHOUGH TODAY WAS NEVER FORECAST TO BE VERY WARM...OBVIOUSLY THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS COULD EASILY SHAVE A FEW MORE
DEGREES OFF FORECAST HIGHS. AT LEAST FOR NOW...NUDGED DOWN HIGHS
VERY SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND POTENTIALLY NOT
ENOUGH...BUT AIMING FOR A RANGE FROM UPPER 40S NORTH...NEAR 50
CENTRAL AND MID-UPPER 50S IN KS ZONES.
FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SKY COVER AND THE RESULTANT EFFECTS ON LOW TEMPS/FROST FORMATION
LEAVES SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED FOR BEING ONLY 12-24 HOURS AWAY. IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS IT DRIFT EASTWARD...BUT AS IT DOES SO A TRAILING...HIGHLY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE HEART
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PHASED SOMEWHAT WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD STILL HOLD UP AT LEAST
5-10 MPH EVEN THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS...AND CLOSER TO
15 MPH EARLIER IN THE EVENING ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST. LEANING TOWARD
THE 06Z NAM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS...ALTHOUGH THE NIGHT COULD
VERY WELL START OUT CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ESPECIALLY OVER NEB
ZONES...A GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON...ESPECIALLY REGARDING ANY LOWER STRATUS...ALTHOUGH THE
PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ARGUES THAT AT LEAST PATCHY
COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ALSO BE LURKING AROUND.
ALTHOUGH AGAIN NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE RAIN...ALSO LINGERED THE
SPRINKLE POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SKIES AT LEAST AVERAGE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY
CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY...AND
THUS MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS LOWS...WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND
30-32 IN THE FAR WEST...UP TO 35-36 IN THE EAST. EVEN IF THESE
LOWS ARE REALIZED...BREEZES COULD STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
SIGNIFICANT FROST FORMATION...EXCEPT IN TYPICAL LOWER
ELEVATION/SHELTERED AREAS. IN ADDITION TO A POSSIBLE UPCOMING
FROST ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...A FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
SUCH AS DAWSON/FURNAS MAY BE CANDIDATES FOR A FREEZE WARNING...AND
AGAIN WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFTS TO GET THE BALL ROLLING ON THESE
POSSIBLE HEADLINES. PLEASE NOTE HOWEVER...THAT DUE TO EARLIER
FREEZES ON OCT. 7TH AND/OR OCT. 13TH...VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES IN OUR FAR NORTH WILL NO LONGER BE INCLUDED IN ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS CYCLE INCLUDE FROST CHANCES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY.
CHECKING THE BIG PICTURE AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL MODELS IN
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEST SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...WITH RIDGING OVER THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES...AND THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING
FROM B.C. CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. AT THE SURFACE...WE SHOULD
HAVE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SET UP SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WEATHERWISE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE ONE CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROST
FORMATION. THE SET UP LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR FROST AT LEAST FOR THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...UNLESS WE HAVE A THICK OVERCAST LAYER OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. ALREADY
HAVE PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS AND SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE THIS.
BY FRIDAY...SEVERAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN PLACING A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE EC HAVE SHOWN A DECENT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH
ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. STILL WAITING FOR THE MOST RECENT
RUN OF THE EC AS IT HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT...BUT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALSO SHOW THIS PATTERN. REGARDING THE SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY...THE OLD EC WAS THE MOST ROBUST IN PRODUCING
QPF...ALL THE WAY FROM CENTRAL NEB DOWN INTO TEXAS...WHILE THE GFS
KEPT MOST OF IT SOUTH OF NEB...AND THE GEM IS EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH THAN THAT. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT POPS ARE STILL JUSTIFIED
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WILL PUT HIGHEST POPS IN OUR SOUTH AND
TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES...12Z EC HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON
THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR SURGING INTO THE CWA. WILL CHECK LATEST RUN
OF EC IF IT COMES IN BEFORE IT IS TIME TO SEND OUT THE GRIDS.
OTHERWISE SEVERAL MODELS AGREE THAT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
ON AVERAGE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. STILL WE HAVE MADE IT PAST THE AVERAGE FIRST FROST
DATE FOR MOST OF THE CWA BY AT LEAST A WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE MAIN AVIATION ISSUES INVOLVE STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAINLY DURING
THE FIRST 12 HOURS...AND CHALLENGING CEILING TRENDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST 15 HOURS...INVOLVING NOT ONLY CLOUD COVERAGE BUT
ALSO WHETHER HEIGHTS WILL BE LOW-END VFR OR HIGHER-MVFR LEVELS.
STARTING OUT THIS MORNING...KGRI IS LOCATED IN A HIGHLY VARIABLE
CLOUD COVERAGE REGIME...ALTERNATING BETWEEN CLEAR/SCATTERED AND A
BROKEN CEILING WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED FEET EITHER SIDE OF THE
VFR/MVFR BREAK-POINT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ON THE SHAKY
SIDE...THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR HIGH-END MVFR CEILING TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF THIS MORNING...AND HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE
DAY AND LIKELY AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND
POSSIBLY LONGER. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN THEME FROM
PREVIOUS ISSUANCE OF A RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR CLEARING BY 03Z
TONIGHT...BUT SOME MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS
LONGER THAN THIS. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...THEY WILL MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT DIRECTION NEAR 300-320 DEGREES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED
VALUES AROUND 24KT AND GUST POTENTIAL TO AT LEAST 34KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY THIS EVENING...AND SETTLING
DOWN TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
ALTHOUGH LONGER TERM DROUGHT ISSUES STILL REMAIN...THE LAST 3
WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
RECENT 1-2 CATEGORY IMPROVEMENTS PER THE WEEKLY U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. AS FOR THE RAINFALL EVENT FROM MONDAY THE 14TH...A FEW
QUICK NOTES REGARDING OUR TWO PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES...
GRAND ISLAND...SET A NEW OCT. 14 DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD WITH
1.36 INCHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE RERGRI PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.
HASTINGS...ALTHOUGH THE 0.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE 14TH WAS NOT A
DAILY RECORD...IT DID BOOST THE MONTH-TO-DATE TOTAL TO 4.65
INCHES. THIS NOW PLACES OCT. 2013 AS THE 3RD-WETTEST OCTOBER ON
RECORD DATING BACK 118 YEARS TO 1985. INTERESTINGLY...3 OF THE
TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN WITH PAST 7
YEARS...WITH THE TOP-5 AS FOLLOWS:
1) 6.16 INCHES IN 2008
2) 5.82 INCHES IN 1897
3) 4.65 INCHES IN 2013 (SO FAR)
4) 4.56 INCHES IN 1968
5) 4.32 INCHES IN 2007
PLEASE NOTE THAT HASTINGS PRECIPITATION RECORDS ARE BASED ON NWS
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER REPORTS (HASTINGS 4N) BETWEEN THE YEARS OF
1895 AND MARCH 1998...WITH RECORDS SINCE APRIL 1998 FROM THE
AUTOMATED SENSOR AT HASTINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1036 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY LOSE ITS INFLUENCE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN STALL IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A RISK FOR SHOWERS LATE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT WILL GET SHOVED TO OUR SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...THE PAST WEEK HAS BEEN ONE OF THE CLOUDIEST
PERIODS OF FALL WEATHER I HAVE SEEN IN MY 10+ YEARS OF LIVING IN
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. COUPLED UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PATTERN...BUT THERE ARE SIGNS OF CHANGE COMING TOMORROW. THROUGH
TODAY...COMPACT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N/72.5W IS
SURROUNDED BY A LARGE REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH IS PRODUCING
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS REGION IS
PROVIDING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 12Z MHX SOUNDING SHOWED MOISTURE EXTENDING UP TO 2800 FT WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING ALOFT WITHIN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. AMONG ALL
THE RECENT MODELS ONLY THE 06Z NAM AND 12Z RUC SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED CLOUD/MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION...AND
THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR MY MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE COAST...BUT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE WE MAY GO ONE
MORE DAY WITH NO SUNSHINE. (SIGH...) WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SKIES
ARE CURRENTLY SUNNY...BUT EVEN HERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BEND A
BIT MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ADVECTING SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
I HAVE MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE WILMINGTON AREA WITH 72-74 DEGREES NOW EXPECTED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES HERE. ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND UP INTO
WHITEVILLE AND ELIZABETHTOWN WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S. AND FARTHER INLAND FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST ENOUGH SUNSHINE SHOULD EXIST TO PUSH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING UP FROM THE
GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST MAKING ITS WAY OFF SHORE
BY THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST FINALLY FADES
AWAY. THIS WILL FINALLY BREAK US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY
FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WED INTO THURS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
PROVIDE SOME WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AND THEREFORE SHOULD SEE SOME AC/CIRRUS STREAMING IN ON
WED AND THURS. THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ON WED.
THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS A MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY
LATE THURS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT BY WED
NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PCP WILL NOT BE A FACTOR UNTIL THURS AND A
STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW MAY AID IN KEEPING
QPF LOWER BUT SHOULD SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THURS. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE
FROM DOWN NEAR 1.25 INCHES ON WED UP TO 1.75 INCHES BY LATE THURS.
A WARMER RETURN FLOW ON THURS WILL PUSH TEMPS UP AROUND 80 OR SO
ON THURS AND CLOUDS AND PCP WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THURS WITH READINGS AROUND 60 OR SO.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BE JUST ALONG THE COAST FRI MORNING. THE MID
TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
BAHAMAS WILL HOLD UP THE PROGRESSION OF TROUGH FROM THE NORTH AND
WILL MAINTAIN MORE OF A W-SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THEREFORE IT WILL NOT GET A GOOD
PUSH OFF SHORE. REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR COAST.
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME DRIER AIR TO PUSH INTO INLAND NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA AREAS...BUT LOCAL AREA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT
COMPLETELY ON FRI IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT BY SATURDAY
COMBINING WITH MORE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. SHALLOW
COOL AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA BUT TOUGH TO SAY HOW
FAR SOUTHEAST IT WILL PENETRATE AS WINDS COME BACK AROUND TO THE
SW BY SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GRADIENT OF COOLER TO WARMER TEMPS
RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO
THE 70S ON FRI BUT BACK UP TO THE 80S ON SATURDAY AS FRONT BUCKLES
UP.
BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
PUSH COLD FRONT THROUGH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS OR BELOW WITH READINGS CLOSER TO 70 MOST PLACES
BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW CEILINGS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...RIGHT AT THE MVFR/IFR CUTOFF POINT. LOOKS LIKE THE
INLAND TERMINALS WILL STAY SCATTERED TODAY...OTHER THAN
INTERMITTENTLY BROKEN FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE STRATUS
ALONG THE COAST LIFTS TO A STRATA CU CEILING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. TONIGHT...A STRATA CU
CEILING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...BASED ON THE TIME HEIGHT. CEILINGS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR...CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT. OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N/72.5W HAS ALMOST A
MINI-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOK TO IT DESPITE ONLY INTERMITTENT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTER. REGARDLESS...A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. FORTUNATELY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS INLAND
LATER TODAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA SHOULD
RELAX...WITH GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS MEASURED AT AREA BUOYS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS INDICATED...WITH UP TO A TWO-FOOT FORECAST-TO-OBS
DIFFERENCE NOTED AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY (41013) AND
NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH (41110) BUOYS. I JUST RE-RAN THE LOCAL
SWAN WAVE MODEL WITH UPDATED WINDS TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW SEAS
SHOULD RESPOND INTO TONIGHT...AND IT SEEMS TO MODEL THE OBSERVED
DOWNWARD TREND IN SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS QUITE WELL. I
HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MYRTLE BEACH COASTAL
WATERS EARLY...AND ROLLED BACK THE ENDING TIME FOR THE NC WATERS TO
18Z...MATCHING THE EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE GEORGETOWN-AREA WATERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW
ENGLAND WEAKENS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST FINALLY FADES
AWAY. THIS WILL BREAK US OUT OF THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW
ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WED
INTO THURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK WITH A LIGHT W TO
SW FLOW BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES. SEAS WILL DECREASE THROUGH WED AS
FLOW BACKS FROM THE NORTH TO THE W-SW. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 3 FT
BY LATE WED INTO THURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY
BUT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE WINDS
SHOULD VEER AROUND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND FRONT BUT
REMAINING LIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BUCKLE WITH WINDS COMING BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF
NORTHERLY WINDS REACHES THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE
IN THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD KEEPING SEAS AT BAY IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 3 AM TUESDAY...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER FROM 6 AM UNTIL 9 AM. THE TIDE GAUGE ALONG THE
CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON WAS MEASURING A TIDAL
DEPARTURE OF ABOUT A FOOT. THE EVE HIGH TIDE DID EXCEED FLOOD STAGE
AND WE AGAIN EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH
THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REACH 5.7 FT MLLW
AROUND SUNRISE. WE WILL ALSO BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CAPE FEAR RIVER TONIGHT. WATER LEVELS
AT THE BEACHES WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
ALTHOUGH ACTION STAGES WILL LIKELY BE EXCEEDED...THE GAUGES AT THE
BEACHES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.
HIGH TIDE AT THE BEACHES IS AROUND 5 AM AND 5 PM.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
858 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A BAROCLINIC
LEAF/CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUING IN EASTERN MONTANA...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING MAY BE UNDERWAY AS PREVIOUS
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO WARM. LOCAL/REGIONAL
RADAR IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN AND BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW SLICING THROUGH HETTINGER TO SAINT ANTHONY AND JUST NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH A
DIVERGENCE FIELD ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA VIA THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H3 80KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE WARM LAYER DEPTH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GREATER THAN
1000FT OFF THE SURFACE...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT
LATER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP AS THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THE ABOVE IDEAS
HANDLED WELL...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY/SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WORKING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND JUST GRAZING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEACH TO DICKINSON...TO
MCCLUSKY AND INTO HARVEY. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
WITH TIME. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ABOVE AREAL OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS
UPDATE...HAVE SLOWED UP THE PRECIPITATION AREA BY AN HOUR OR TWO
AND CHANGED THE WORDING FROM UNCERTAINTY TO AREAL COVERAGE. SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT FROM MONTANA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/OMEGA FIELD MOVES ACROSS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SCENARIO HANDLED WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MOST FORECAST
ELEMENTS. DID USE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER RAW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...FROZEN PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SYSTEM EXITS
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE DRYING THINGS OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DIRECTLY BEHIND THE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
BAND. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. AT
THIS TIME KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTHWEST...CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALOFT. QUITE A
BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON FRIDAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LINKED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE H800.
EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 25 TO 35 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. A H250 NORTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 100 KNOTS IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHER END OF THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGES.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S...AND LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NORTH WEST
WINDS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG - BUT STILL 15 TO
25 MPH. AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S. ANOTHER SHOT OF A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF KDIK/KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 03Z
THURSDAY. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING NEAR KISN WEDNESDAY EVENING...WILL MOVE INTO
KDIK/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR
CIGS TO RETURN AS THE SHOWERS END LATER TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
758 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT. PUT 40 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 60 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
AT EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER TONIGHT. RADARS ALREADY SHOWED SCATTERED
AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF AR MOVING EASTWARD. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM MIDDLE TN INTO CENTRAL MS.
AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MIDSOUTH...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MS CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT...SO LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE ZONE FORECASTS / GRIDS LOOKS FINE WITH JUST SMALL
TWEAKS FOR TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
KCBM INTO LOUISIANA. THE RAIN SHIELD IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
AND NOW COVERS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55.
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH THOUGH THE SUN IS
TEMPORARILY PEAKING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPS
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH READINGS
HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST. MEANWHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS A PIECE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX PUSHES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE LESS BULLISH. WILL ALSO KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT ABOVE TEMP GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS.
THURSDAY...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
WITH PLEASANT CONDS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT A SUNNY START TO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSOURI/KY BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE PULLED IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. EXPECT SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND COOL WNW FLOW ALOFT.
A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING FRONT PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT THEY ARE MOISTURE STARVED SO REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THEN TURNING
COOLER BY MIDWEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A VERY COOL
AIRMASS PUSHING IN BY THU OR FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UNSETTLED POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE SITES WITH CONDITIONS STARTING OFF VFR AT JBR
..MEM AND MKL...WITH IFR AT TUP. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH BELIEVE
MEM AND MKL WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT. ISOLD
SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SECOND
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OZARKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AT MEM AND MKL...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TUP.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH AT 3-8 KTS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 55 69 49 73 / 40 10 10 10
MKL 53 67 40 70 / 40 20 10 10
JBR 51 68 43 72 / 40 10 10 10
TUP 57 70 47 72 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
717 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE AT A LULL EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOW EAST OF NASHVILLE BUT STILL WEST OF THE PLATEAU.
HOWEVER, THE NAM DOES SHOW SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASED POSITIVE OMEGA MOVING INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWS LIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY
MOVING BACK IN AFTER 06Z, SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR
NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.
STILL DEALING WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM AT ISSUANCE. LIGHT
RAINS HAVE MOVED OUT OF BNA AND ARE APPROACHING CSV. THIS MEANS
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT BNA BUT CSV SHOULD FALL INTO IFR FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT BOUT OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT...BUT ANOTHER
BOUT IS EXPECTED AROUND DAYBREAK. THESE WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...BUT
WILL DECREASE FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH MID-MORNING...ESPECIALLY
FOR CKV AND BNA. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN PRETTY QUICKLY BEHIND THE
SECOND BOUT OF RAIN AND CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY THURSDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVERYONE IN VFR BY 00Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT BACK AROUND TO
THE SW WITH THE SECOND BATCH OF RAIN.
UNGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE OBS AND LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATE
COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED FROM WAYNESBORO TO NORTH OF
GALLATIN...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S OUT AHEAD. FRONT WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY
12Z. HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN TO ALL ZONES
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS EVENING
MAY BE DRY AFTER CURRENT PRECIP DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WITH NEXT
ROUND ARRIVING NEAR/AFTER 06Z. THIS SECOND ROUND SHOULD ALSO
DEPART RAPIDLY EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING AS STRONG DRY AIR
INTRUSION ALOFT PUNCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS
ON THE PLATEAU FOR TONIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE...DECREASING
QUICKLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
SECOND ROUND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW ONE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT REMAIN
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP AND CLEARING LINE
CURRENTLY GETTING CLOSE TO NORTHWEST BORDER...BUT LOW TO MID 50S
SEEM MOST REASONABLE WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS.
AFTER TOMORROW...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A LARGE AND DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EAST...STRONG RIDGE IN THE WEST...AND ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY SUGGEST
FREQUENT COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND THAT IS WHAT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. NEXT
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF ON TUESDAY.
BOTH FRONTS LOOK TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WILL
NOT SHOW ANY POPS. TEMPS WERE KEPT GENERALLY IN THE BALLPARK OF
THE 12Z MEX MOS...ALTHOUGH TEMPS COULD BE QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY SHOWN IN FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
KCBM INTO LOUISIANA. THE RAIN SHIELD IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AND
NOW COVERS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55. CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH THOUGH THE SUN IS
TEMPORARILY PEAKING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPS
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH READINGS
HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST. MEANWHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS A PIECE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX PUSHES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE LESS BULLISH. WILL ALSO KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT ABOVE TEMP GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS.
THURSDAY...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
WITH PLEASANT CONDS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT A SUNNY START TO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSOURI/KY BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE PULLED IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. EXPECT SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND COOL WNW FLOW ALOFT.
A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING FRONT PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT THEY ARE MOISTURE STARVED SO REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THEN TURNING
COOLER BY MIDWEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A VERY COOL
AIRMASS PUSHING IN BY THU OR FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UNSETTLED POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE SITES WITH CONDITIONS STARTING OFF VFR AT JBR
...MEM AND MKL...WITH IFR AT TUP. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...THOUGH BELIEVE
MEM AND MKL WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT. ISOLD
SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A SECOND
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE OZARKS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE STARTING
AFTER SUNRISE AT MEM AND MKL...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR TUP.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH AT 3-8 KTS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 55 69 49 73 / 30 10 10 10
MKL 53 67 40 70 / 30 20 10 10
JBR 51 68 43 72 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 57 70 47 72 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1259 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
MIDDAY TAF UPDATES REFLECT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS THE RUC MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SLOWER
TRENDS IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME MIXING. IN KEEPING WITH THE CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WILL EXPECT MOSTLY SHRA/+SHRA TO OCCUR IN THE FIRST
3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE LATTER PERIODS OF THE MODEL RUN OR
AFTER 05Z...WITH N-S ORIENTED SQUALLS MOVING EAST ALONG THE 925-850
MB FRONTAL SLOPE AND IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET. CIG AND VSBY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IFR AND
OCCASIONALLY DIPPING TO LIFR OR LIFTING TO MVFR. RAINFALL RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS FRONTAL
DEPTH DEEPENS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIFTING OF CIGS EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WELL WARRANTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEW 12Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE NEW FOCUS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE 850 MILLIBAR FRONT DRAPED OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW FOCUSING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
A BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE 850 FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS. THE MAIN THREAT AREAS CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL TWEAK THE ONGOING
WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES THIS MORNING...WHILE KDRT SEES -RA
THROUGH 18Z. AFT 18Z...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
WITH HIGH CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z. LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT FROM 160-180
DEGREES TO 36-03 DEGREES AS THE FRONT PASSES. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
-SHRA BR WILL CONTINUE FROM 06Z TO 12Z WED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BEGIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THOSE
INGREDIENTS ARE TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES BY
THIS EVENING. THE PWATS WILL BE NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH IS A SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE HIGH PWATS
ARE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM T.S. OCTAVE. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. DUE TO RECENT
RAINS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF. WPC HAS
PLACED THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY IN THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK. WE FEEL THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER THE FROPA WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE
CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 83 58 60 55 73 / 80 80 70 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 82 57 59 54 73 / 70 80 70 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 85 59 61 55 73 / 60 70 70 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 53 55 52 71 / 90 90 70 20 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 60 64 57 74 / 60 80 50 20 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 55 57 54 72 / 80 80 70 20 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 84 61 62 56 74 / 60 70 70 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 59 60 55 73 / 70 70 70 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 87 60 63 56 73 / 50 60 60 20 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 85 60 62 55 73 / 60 70 70 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 62 64 57 73 / 50 60 60 30 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...
BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...
EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...
WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
857 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...STRETCHING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT SURPRISING...THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO
CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HRRR BRINGS THE CLEARING LINE TO
ABOUT GREEN...COLUMBIA...NORTHWEST DANE AND NORTHERN IOWA COUNTY
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR A BIT AFTER. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE AS FAR
AS IT GETS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY HARD WHERE IT
CLEARS...BUT HOLD UP UNDER THE BLANKET OF CLOUDS. SO WILL BE
TWEAKING TEMPS FOR THE ADJUSTED SKY COVER.
THE REASON THE CLOUDS SHOULD HALT IS DUE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING UP OUT OF KANSAS...AND THIS IS OUR SECOND CONCERN. THE
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
SHORT WAVE SHOWING RAPID ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF IT WITH TOPS
COOLING. THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY
FALLING ACROSS ERN KANSAS DUE TO THIS WAVE. THE 18Z NAM IS
COMPLETELY DRY...WHILE THE GFS/EC HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF. ALL OF THE
MODELS NOW SHOW QPF CLIPPING ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM ABOUT 11Z TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THU. IT/S A
FAST MOVING FEATURE AND THE PRECIP SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. I BUMPED POPS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY
NOTCH THEM UP A BIT MORE...AFTER I GET A PRELIM LOOK AT SOME NEW
00Z GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
IT APPEARS THE MVFR CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR...PROBABLY STICKING
AROUND THROUGH ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY AT KMSN AND 17Z AT KMKE/KENW/KUES.
CLEARING IS TRYING TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL BE
SLOWED OR STOPPED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING
RAIN TO THE 3 SOUTHEAST WI TAF SITES FROM ABOUT 12Z-18Z THU...THEN
CLEARING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ON
THU.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH
THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WILL SEPARATE THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH WILL SWING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER WISCONSIN...IOWA AND
NORTHERN IL WILL HANG ON OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.
IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN MKX FORECAST AREA...TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S...SO PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THERE. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUDS CLEARING IN TIME TO HAVE A FROST
ADVISORY.
MOISTURE LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LEADING VORT MAX WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SHOWERS...SO HIGHEST POP IN THE MKX AREA ARE 35
PERCENT FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER IN SOUTHEAST
WI...AND SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET UP
TO AROUND 60 IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM MN THROUGH WI THU NT AND FRI
WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING FROM NRN WI INTO ERN ONTARIO
CANADA. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS WILL ENTER
THE FAR WRN CWA BY 12Z FRI AND MOVE TO LAKE MI BY LATE MORNING.
FCST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT LITTLE
TO NO LIFT AND DRY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THUS ONLY HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NRN CWA.
A DEEPER POLAR TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
AND NRN GREAT LAKES FOR FRI NT AND SAT. A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE
NRN GREAT LAKES WILL RESULT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
SRN WI ON SAT. SOME FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SKINNY CAPE EXTENDING INTO THE MID LEVELS FOR SAT. INCREASED
POPS TO 50 PERCENT BUT MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER.
EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD VIA A COUPLE COLD FRONTS
AND A POLAR TROUGH ALOFT...THEN SHOWERY ON SAT.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL...PLEASANT CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
SUN. AFTERWARD...A STRONG...DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM CANADA INTO WI. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER NRN WI AND
THROUGHOUT THE NRN GREAT LAKES INTO TUE AM. WHERE THE WARM
ADVECTION PCPN SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR NORTH THE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR. PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE MAINLY
SUN NT AND MON WITH COLD FROPA BY MON AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST.
MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTERWARD BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN NW FLOW.
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL RANGE FROM 528-540 DM
AND DID MENTION SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LOW POPS FOR MON NT AND
TUE NT.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER WISCONSIN...IOWA AND NORTHERN IL
WILL HANG ON OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
PLAN ON THE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN WI. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING TOWARD CENTRAL WI LATE
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND LAKE MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS TO SOUTHEAST WI MAINLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THESE SHOWERS. THEN EXPECT CLOUDS TO RISE TO VFR AND
THIN/DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
615 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE... 1. CLOUD
TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT ON FOG/FROST FORMATION...AND 2. RAIN
CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA...THROUGH
WI/IA/NEB AND CO. STRATUS IS HOLDING STUBBORNLY ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
SUFFERING AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS...CURRENTLY SITTING
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
CLEARING/THINNING OF THE STRATUS DECK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR FOR AREAS/WIDESPREAD FROST.
ELSEWHERE...LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER
30S...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HOWEVER...
HEADLINE-ABLE FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT PV-ADVECTION IN THE 700-300MB
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FOR A BOUT OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT THURSDAY BRING 925MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 8-11C RANGE. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND PERIODIC SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DRY DAY AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR SATURDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING ANOTHER DEEP/COLD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY GIVEN STEEP 925-700MB
LAPSE RATES. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. PLAN ON LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 29-33 DEGREE RANGE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN HANDLING
OF SYSTEMS RIPPLING ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY YIELDS A 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH PRECIPITATION
TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING / MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING / AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE -1 TO
-2C RANGE...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECT TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
CLEARING OF MVFR STRATUS DECK MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FCST AREA...MOVING THRU KRST AT 23Z. DISTANCE-SPEED TOOL
HAS THE CLEARING TO KLSE JUST AFTER 0130Z AND TRENDED THIS IN THE
LATEST TAF.
ONCE THE STRATUS CLEARS...ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
MS/WI RIVER VALLEYS. GRAY/OVC DAY WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLEARING
DURING THE EVENING SETS THE STAGE FOR FOG POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SFC
TROUGH/FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ND WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE SFC
RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS PROGGED TO BE SOUTHWEST/
WEST IN THE 4-7KT RANGE TONIGHT...LIMITING FOG POTENTIAL. DID
CONTINUE/ADD SOME 2-4SM BR TO KLSE TAF CENTERED ON 12Z THU. CANNOT
RULE OUT IFR/LIFR VSBY/CIGS IN DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME.
ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING BF/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THU INTO THU EVENING.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW AN OCCLUDED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LEADING
BAND OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAIN IS NOW EXITING NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
TO THE EAST...WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS MOSTLY INACTIVE. THE OVERCAST
CLOUD DECK EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
HOWEVER...THOUGH SOME BREAKS WERE DEVELOPING RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER EASTERN IOWA. THIS AREA OF BROKEN CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RUN AT
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE ELONGATED LOW
OVERCAST DECK...THE TROWAL AIRSTREAM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST...PRECIP CHANCES/TIMING ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
AT THE SAME TIME. WITH THE DRY SLOT OVERHEAD AND PRONOUNCED CAPPING
AT 700MB...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. BUT
ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-C WISCONSIN.
BY MID TO LATE EVENING THOUGH...DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH ALONG WITH SHARP SURFACE
TROUGHING...SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS RETURNING TO CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF LOW
OVERCAST WITH LOWS REMAINING IN THE 40S.
WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE
MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT...SO SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE. THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH DEPARTS. DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL THEN SLOWLY ADVECT
INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL STILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THOUGH...SO DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND BY A FEW HOURS.
WESTERN SECTIONS SHOULD SEE SOME SUN BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD IN TIMING OF PCPN CHANCES. OVERALL PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH STRONG RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF CONUS. COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME...THOUGH TRYING TO TIME ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH TROF BETWEEN MODELS IS DIFFICULT AS CHANGES FROM RUN TO
RUN. HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW AT TIMES LATE IN THE
PERIOD...THOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN LLVL THERMAL
FIELDS. MOISTURE FOR PCPN ALSO DIMINISHES WITH TIME AS FLOW
COMING OUT OF CANADA. STAYED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH EXTENDED.
IN NEAR TERM...RIDGING OVERNIGHT WED TO LEAD TO DRY PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES TO LEAD TO FROST POTENTIAL. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS FOR THIS PERIOD...AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WILL HAVE ENOUGH CLEARING BETWEEN EXITING/ENTERING SYSTEMS. FROST
PUT IN GRIDS ONLY FOR EAST CENTRAL WHERE HEADLINES STILL BEING
ISSUED.
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME
WITH WINDS REMAINING TOO WESTERLY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRIMARY RAIN
BAND EXITS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PLENTY OF IFR CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN...WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT OF CIGS...UP TO MVFR. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW WILL LEAD TO SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NO REPRIEVE FROM THE IFR/LIFR CIGS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
UNTIL THE MORNING WITH THE LOW PASSING THROUGH AND WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. LOW CIGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AFTER THE
SHOWERS END AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY ARRIVES.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......TE
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DRIFTING NORTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL TODAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 2 KFT TO ALMOST 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS DRY SLOT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON
THESE AREAS WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LINKING UP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS OVER THE
AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN ON LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER HUDSONS BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND SETS UP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR STARTS TO
INVADE THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 0 TO -2C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH
THEN DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY
THEN DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -4C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -8C OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND -2C ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
1005MB LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE/RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWING AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF MVFR/IFR CLOUD AND SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. PLAN ON MVFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO DETERIORATE INTO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PASSES OVERHEAD AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS IT PULLS
EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1158 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.UPDATE...
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST WI THIS MORNING PER
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. BACK EDGE OF RAIN MARCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...REACHING
MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA AT 19Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND IN SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE BY A NARROW
CLOUD ENHANCEMENT AND ALSO INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST/WEST. THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THIS
FRONT AS IT REACHES SOUTHEAST WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUS KEPT
SMALL CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED RIGHT AFTER THE RAIN STOPS
UNTIL THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES THROUGH...OR UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THEN MVFR CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
OR JUST LIFT TO VFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BUT ONLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
WI. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BROKEN/OVERCAST IN SOUTHEAST WI THROUGH THE
DAY. UNCERTAIN IF CIGS NEAR THE SHORELINE WILL DROP TO IFR OR IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING TO KEEP THEM MVFR ALONG THE
FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING...BUT THEN
EXPECTING MVFR CIGS/VSBY ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AS THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW MOVES
OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR IMPROVING CIG/VSBY WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
BAND OF 850 MB WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AHEAD OF NEARLY-STACKED SYSTEM
OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BE CROSSING SRN WI WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL BE TIMING PCPN ACROSS WITH LAYER
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LAYER FRONTOGENESIS...THOUGH FORCING WEAKENS AS
LIFTS NORTHEAST...TRACKING ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WITH COUPLED UPR JET OVER WRN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING THAT LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST... THOUGH LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK IN SRN
BRANCH LINGERS OVER THE EAST THROUGH 00Z WED. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT REFLECTING THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST AS WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE PUSHES EAST AND MID-LEVEL DRY PUNCH MOVES
ACROSS REGION. SOME QUESTION FOR THUNDER WITH NONE OF THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CAPE. ANY CHANCE WILL PROBABLY
BE IN THE EAST WHERE SOME ELEVATED CAPE APPEARS DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND THE NOON HOUR...THEN
STEADY OUT BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOIST AFTER OCCLUSION MOVES THROUGH SO LEFT CHANCE
POPS IN...THOUGH MAY END UP BEING MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT SHOWERS.
WRAP AROUND PCPN WITH 500 MB TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
CWA TONIGHT...MAKING SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AS POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. NOT A TON OF LIFT AS THE TROUGH AND SFC BOUNDARY MOVE
THROUGH...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY ONLY SATURATING TO 8 TO 10
KFT. STILL...SEEMS LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT THERE FOR SOME
SHOWERS...SO KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING. BETWEEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
A COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ONLY GETTING INTO THE LOW
50S.
SHOULD SEE LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS
IN PLACE...WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOR SOME FROST AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. BIG QUESTION THOUGH IS THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...WITH MODELS RANGING FROM A MOSTLY CLEAR NAM TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ECMWF. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWEST...SO PUT LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SHOWING A WEAKER CLOSED UPPER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND A BIT FARTHER
NORTH...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHER MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY THOUGH...SO ONLY WENT WITH SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY BASED ON THE FACT THE THE ECMWF IS
CLOUDY AND COOLER WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SIMILAR TO POPS AND
SKY COVER...LEANED TOWARD THE WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH
SOLUTIONS...RESULTING IN HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...SO HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. NONE
OF THE WAVES LOOK LIKE THEY WOULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH THE CONSENSUS
OF CURRENT MODELS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FRIDAY...THEN
STRUGGLING TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
WILL SEE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS DROP TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS AS THEY CROSS
REGION...WITH THE MVFR CIGS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. SOME QUESTION WHETHER CIGS WILL FALL LOWER THAN MVFR...AS
HINTED AT ON MET MOS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SOME
SUB-1K FT CIGS ON CURRENT OBS IN WESTERN IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
WILL MONITOR PROGRESS OF THE LOWER CIGS AND ADD IF NEEDED...BUT
CURRENT PLAN IS TO LEAVE CIGS AT LOW MVFR LEVELS. WILL SEE SOME
GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT...WITH
THE NAM GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME WESTERLY GUSTS IN TIGHTER GRADIENT
BEHIND FRONT INTO THIS EVENING IN THE EAST.
MARINE...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SUPPORT CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY END TIME AS
WAVES WILL BE SUBSIDING WITH SHIFT TO WEST WINDS BEHIND OCCLUDED
FRONT/COLD FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR NRN ZONES FOR
POSSIBLE EXTENSION AS THEY WILL BE IN TIGHTER GRADIENT AND WAVE
HEIGHTS TOWARD OPEN WATER MAY STAY UP A BIT MORE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
600 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DRIFTING NORTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL TODAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 2 KFT TO ALMOST 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS DRY SLOT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON
THESE AREAS WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LINKING UP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS OVER THE
AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN ON LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER HUDSONS BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND SETS UP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR STARTS TO
INVADE THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 0 TO -2C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH
THEN DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY
THEN DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -4C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -8C OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND -2C ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
A SFC LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS JOURNEY EASTWARD TODAY...MOVING OVER NORTHEAST WI BY
03Z. BAND OF THERMODYNAMICALLY/FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PCPN HAS
ALREADY CLEARED KRST...AND WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF KLSE BY 12Z. OBS
AND FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS A
FEW HOURS POST THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN BAND...WITH MOSTLY 1-2 KFT
CIGS. SOME MINOR ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE LAYER COULD RESULT
IN SPOTTY -DZ/-SHRA...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THOSE CHANCES TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW/S COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON KRST
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03-06Z. THE SYSTEM/S
DEFORMATION REGION WILL SLIP ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND SOME -SHRA AND VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
KRST. COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOCUS
THEN TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DRIFTING NORTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WAVE. MEANWHILE...A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING AND THEN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR MAY SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAINFALL TODAY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THESE AREAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 2 KFT TO ALMOST 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THIS DRY SLOT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON
THESE AREAS WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA.
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVES IN. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING LIGHT RAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LINKING UP
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS OVER THE
AREA AND GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. PLAN ON LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE TONIGHT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013
THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. PLAN ON DECREASING CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOW
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER HUDSONS BAY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AND SETS UP A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. COOLER AIR STARTS TO
INVADE THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 0 TO -2C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONGER TROUGH
THEN DIVES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO ON FRIDAY
THEN DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MIXED IN AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AROUND -4C
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COOL EVEN FURTHER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -8C OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND -2C ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 30S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HAVE INCLUDED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94 DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS WITH THE RAIN AND
WHEN CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR. RAIN IS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS IT SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS START OUT AS VFR...BUT THEN CEILINGS START DROPPING
INTO THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE IN THE MAIN RAIN CHANNEL THAT
CURRENTLY IS JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
ACTUALLY COME AS THE RAIN ENDS AND CEILINGS DROP TO IFR IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. SHORT TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS AREA WILL ACTUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MISS
THE REGION...BUT THE CURRENT IFR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL
PORTRAYED BY THE GUIDANCE IN WESTERN IOWA. FURTHER WEST...A COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER AND THIS FEATURE
MARKS AN IMPROVEMENT UP TO MVFR CEILINGS. SO...IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL GO FROM VFR TO MVFR AS THE RAIN COMES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THEN THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AFTER THE
RAIN ENDS AND BEFORE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEN CEILINGS
WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO MVFR AND LIKELY STAY THERE UNTIL A TROUGH
DROPS BACK DOWN INTO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND BRINGS SOME
RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH IT. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOKS FAIRLY
LOW...PARTICULARLY AT LSE...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVERNIGHT ON INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE EXPECTED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...HALBACH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
426 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
...SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS TO NOW RESIDE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THIS IS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WEST GEORGIA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR AS HAS BEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH LARGELY NON DIVERGENT FLOW NOTED AT UPPER LEVELS ON
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VERY LIGHT QPF FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ARRIVE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH...MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING QUICKLY AND PROVIDE AT
BEST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RESULT WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL
ADVERTISED FROM ROME THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLANTA METRO WITH
RAPIDLY DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH AS FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE...SPC THUNDER PROBS FROM
THE SREF INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED AND NOT ALLOW
STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN MOST CASES ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD STILL SHOW GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW FOR
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS ADIABATIC OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT STRONG UPPER SUPPORT
AND AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS.
DEESE
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WITH BE SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM SIMILAR WITH SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL GA AND THE EUROPEAN IS MORE BROADLY
SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY NIGHTS END. ALL IN ALL
THIS SEEMS TO KEEP BEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA.
GFS/NAM KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN SPREADS MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EITHER WAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N GA. THE MOISTURE
COMING N DUE MAINLY TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE.
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA TO START SUNDAY
BUT WILL EXIT THAT AREA QUICKLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHICH BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE FAR
SE CWA WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SE CWA TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER EXTREME NORTH
GEORGIA WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT NOTED SOUTHWARD. CIGS HAVE BEEN
A DIFFERENT STORY...HAVING LITTLE TROUBLE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS WITH JUST VFR CIGS THUS FAR. EXPECT TREND
TO BE A LOWERING OF THESE CIGS INTO DAYBREAK WITH MVFR BY 14Z AT
ATL AND SURROUNDING TERMINALS. SECONDARY SHOT OF -RA IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND THEN MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
BY 18Z AND LASTING 3 TO 4 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED REDUCTIONS TO VSBY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG TIMING AND -SHRA.
POTENTIAL. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 54 74 54 / 50 40 5 20
ATLANTA 72 55 73 58 / 70 30 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 67 43 69 47 / 80 30 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 70 49 71 51 / 80 20 5 10
COLUMBUS 79 61 78 60 / 30 30 20 40
GAINESVILLE 70 52 72 55 / 80 40 5 10
MACON 82 57 76 60 / 40 40 20 50
ROME 70 48 71 49 / 80 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 74 52 74 53 / 60 30 5 10
VIDALIA 85 64 80 64 / 5 10 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1237 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
UPPER ATMOSPHERE WINDS OVER INDIANA WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THAT MEANS AT THE SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
TO PASS. BETWEEN COLD FRONTS...THERE SHOULD BE BRIEF PERIODS WHEN
INDIANA IS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
STRATO CU DECK HAS PUSHED AS FAR EAST AS A KOKOMO TO COVINGTON LINE.
BUT HAS MOVED LITTLE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW
TENTH OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REST OF THE REGION NEXT FEW HOURS.
AFTER THAT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO ALL
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WILL BE TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS PER SREF AND RAP MODELS WHICH
INDICATES POSSIBLE PRECIP THOSE AREAS TOWARDS 12Z.
CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS
AS TEMPERATURES THERE ARE APPROACHING CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS.
CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK FOR TEST OF THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
MOST PRESSING PROBLEM RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW.
GREAT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAV AND MET POPS TOMORROW...WITH MAV
WETTER. I PREFER MAV. IF YOU LOOK AT PRESSURE ADVENTURE ON POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACES...BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE GOOD FORCING THURSDAY. IN
THESE NORTHWEST FLOW SITUATIONS SUCH FORCING USUALLY AT LEAST CHANCE
FOR RAIN.
MODELS CONCUR ABOUT DRY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
BASICALLY CYCLONIC FLOW AND WARM GREAT LAKES WE SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS AGAIN DIVERGE. MET LIKELY AND MAV LOW END
CHANCE. MEX SAYS CHANCE WILL LAST INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS A TOUGH
CALL BUT WILL USE MAV BECAUSE GFS USUALLY HANDLES SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR TEMPS THURSDAY GOING WITH COOLER MAV GIVEN I LIKE ITS RELATIVELY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES. AFTER THURSDAY MOS TEMPS CLOSE. WILL USE
CONSENSUS TO GET WHATEVER SKILL THAT TECHNIQUE HAS. CONFIDENCE IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST NOT HIGH WITH THIS PACKAGE. RELATIVELY SMALL
CHANGES IN SKY COVER COULD HAVE A BIG EFFECT
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2013
EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW AND POTENTIALLY CAUSING A FEW PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE SO DID NOT
STRAY FAR. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MUCH OUT OF THE 50S MOST
DAYS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S...AND PERHAPS COOLER ON
ANY CLEARER NIGHTS. FROST DOES NOT LOOK POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS APPROXIMATELY 12Z-18Z...OTHERWISE VFR
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
MID CLOUD WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AT THE SITES
AS UPPER WAVE MOVES TOWARD AREA. MODELS ARE MORE BULLISH WITH RAIN
AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE AREA...BUT RAIN WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME INITIALLY
DRY ATMOSPHERE.
WILL INCLUDE VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS RAIN DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT...TAFS CAN BE UPDATED IF NEEDED ONCE TRENDS BECOME
APPARENT. LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY RAIN THAT MOVES IN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM EXITS.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....JK/SMF
AVIATION...50
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND
FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
430 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2013
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
A potential vorticity maximum entering British Columbia early this
morning will move rapidly south-southeastward and approach the
western high plains late tonight. This system will bring mid level
moisture with it. Ahead of this system, a lead shortwave trough
progressing through eastern Montana this morning, was helping to
push a cold front into South Dakota as of 3 am. Behind the front
rain and snow were falling from northwestern South Dakota into
southwest North Dakota and southeastern Montana where temperatures
were between 33 and 36F. Mid level frontogenesis and warm
advection will develop toward Friday morning ahead of the
aforementioned potential vorticity maximum, with the tropospheric
column quickly saturating. Lapse rates will become moist-neutral
above the mid level frontal inversion around 700mb, which favors a
greater amount of lift for a given amount of forcing. Precipitation
in the form of rain will develop between 09 and 12z. Temperatures
may fall initially and then hold steady or slowly rise as cloud
cover increases. Then as evaporational cooling occurs due to
falling precipitation, temperatures will fall once again between
12 and 14Z Friday. The rain may change to snow for some places
after 12z Friday as the freezing level falls below 2000 ft AGL;
but this is covered in the long term section below. The low
temperature grid for Friday extends until 14z and then is when
lows may occur from Garden City north and west to Scott City and
Dighton.
In the nearer term, temperatures should have no trouble reaching
into the 60s today given strong insolation ahead of the cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
Much of the time and effort in the Long Term forecast went into the
Friday forecast...as there is a myriad of challenges...including
precipitation type! A northwest flow jet streak (which can be seen
on water vapor imagery and RAP analysis moving south out of Alberta)
will be the impetus for for out next precipitation event. As the
disturbance approaches Colorado by early Friday morning,
frontogenesis around 700mb will be on the increase from eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas. A fairly intense temperature
gradient will exist at this level (-10C at around North Platte, NE
to +2C at Amarillo, TX, per GEM and ECMWF models), so convergence
and deformation in the flow field will certainly result in fairly
decent lift to promote cloud and precipitation...including banded
precipitation. Moderate precipitation (in mainly the form of rain)
will develop and expand southeast during the morning hours with the
peak of the event affecting much of the southwest Kansas region by
midday with the 700mb frontogenesis and saturated RH centered from
Hugoton to Dodge to LaCrosse at 18z Friday. The GEM and ECMWF are in
very good agreement in their respective 42-hour forecast, so will be
following this "blend" for the official forecast.
Confidence is high that measureable precipitation will occur, so we
continued the uptrend in POPs well into the "Likely" range at 70
percent. A further increase into the "Categorical" range (80+) will
likely be needed if the trends continue in the upcoming morning
model solutions. The ECMWF and Canadian GEM models both show a
rather cold solution as well. Given the strong agreement between
the two models, see no reason why not to trust the progs. They both
show midday surface temperatures at the height of the precipitation
event in the 37 to 40F range with 850mb temperatures 0C to perhaps
-1C. Ideally, I would like to see a larger area of -1 to -2C at
850mb for higher confidence in snow given the time of year. There
will need to be some substantial cooling via vigorous ascent...in
combination with evaporative cooling...in order to get snowflakes
reaching the ground. That being said, it would certainly appear that
this is possible in the strongest band of precipitation...where
temperatures could briefly dip down to the mid 30s and some wet
snowflakes mix in with the rain. Will go ahead and add in a small
area of Rain OR Snow in the grids where hourly temperature is less
than or equal to 38F. Most areas, however, should see just a cold
rain.
The timing of the end of the precipitation event will be critical as
far as temperature recovery and MaxT is concerned late Friday. Areas
farther northwest (say, northwest of a Syracuse to Hays line), will
be seeing the precipitation ending earlier, and thus a better chance
at warming back up through the mid 40s. Areas southeast of a Liberal
to Dodge to Stafford line, however, may not see afternoon
temperatures above the lower 40s. As far as precipitation amounts
are concerned, we are looking at a potential widespread two to three
tenths of an inch, on average, across the southwest Kansas region.
The storm system will rapidly clear the area by Friday night with
westerly downslope low level winds in its wake. Lows in the lower to
mid 30s are expected as skies clear. Dewpoints will likely fall into
the mid to upper 20s across the western half of the region with the
downslope. Wind speeds will probably stay up just enough to prevent
a widespread freeze, however this will need to be watched closely
considering the temperature will not need to fall much from the
Friday max.
Saturday and beyond:
The larger scale general circulation regime will not change much at
all this weekend going into next week...with troughing across the
Upper Midwest region toward Hudson Bay and higher heights along the
West Coast. This will keep the Western Plains in a northwest flow
regime with downslope influence across western Kansas. The cold
surges should remain northeast of the southwest Kansas region,
however another weak front Late Sunday/early Monday will provide a
slight cool-down (back into the lower-mid 60s after a fairly decent
Sunday with highs around 70). After this front, the latest ECMWF
shows a potential break-down of the Hudson Bay longwave trough with
the mid level flow becoming more westerly (and weaker). This may be
temporary, though, with the longwave trough potentially reloading
from south-central Canada into the north-central CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
A weak cold front will pass across western Kansas Thursday,
shifting winds to the northwest at 10-14 kts. Mid level cloud
AOA100 will spread into western Kansas toward the end of the TAF
period ahead of an upper level disturbance. VFR conditions will
prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 40 44 34 / 0 30 70 10
GCK 64 38 46 33 / 0 50 70 0
EHA 65 38 45 33 / 0 30 50 0
LBL 67 41 45 34 / 0 30 70 0
HYS 64 39 46 35 / 0 60 70 0
P28 69 42 45 36 / 0 10 60 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-045-
046-064-065-078>080-088-089.
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Finch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW TWO
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR
FORECAST CONCERNS IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT... DRIVING A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION AND KICKING OF SOME RAINFALL AS IT DOES
SO. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED NEAR
THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER... WHICH WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST AND
MAINLY WORK TO JUST INCREASE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS IT HELPS ENHANCE MID-UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION OVER THAT AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH SIMILAR TIMING OF FROPA AND
PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COALESCENCE OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... PRIMARILY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT GIVEN FRONT-RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND DPVA WORKING TOGETHER IN
THAT AREA. THALER-QG DIAGNOSTICS DO A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING THE
OVERALL AREA OF FORCING PER ITS 700MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES... AND THE
Q-G INDUCED PCPN IS FOCUSED BEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER... ENTIRE AREA HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PCPN AS THE FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A SEPARATE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PRECEDE THAT MAIN
BAND OF PCPN. THE HIGH RES MODELS... HOPWRF... HRRR... HIRESW NMM
AND ARW... AND SPCNMM... ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPARENT ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE ITSELF RISING AS COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION... ESSENTIALLY OFFSETTING THE WEAK NEGATIVE
PRESSURE ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RES MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTIVITY WHICH THEY EVENTUALLY GET DOWN CLOSER TO THE GROUND
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL.. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS
EASTERN AREA OF PCPN TO PRODUCE MUCH... AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GAP BETWEEN IT AND THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... PLAYED THINGS SIMPLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
TIME BEING SINCE THINGS HAVE OBVIOUSLY NOT YET DEVELOPED... AND JUST
ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW POPS TO SNEAK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA A BIT EARLIER TODAY... WITH THE HIGHER POPS STILL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE... STUCK
CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
GENERALLY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE IS A TREND OF
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE WESTERN U.S. BUT GENERALLY THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE ROCKIES
SENSIBLE WX. THIS PATTERN IS COLD FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
GENERALLY LOW CHC/S OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING OF SHRTWV/S AND DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL MASS FIELDS...ESPECIALLY MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
ONE OF THE MAIN TRENDS IS THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH MEANS A BETTER CHC OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY PAST SUNDAY AS 85H TEMPS FALL BLW -4C.
THE GROUND IS WAY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT IF
ANY OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND...OR NEXT WEEK HAVE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO GENERATE HEAVIER SNOW BURST...I COULD SEE A LIGHT
DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES. THIS IS TYPICALLY NOT THE NORM FOR
MID/LATE OCTOBER...ESPECIALLY DUE TO SIMILAR SYSTEMS IN THE PAST
WHICH WERE MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL.
ANOMALY EXTREMES OR STANDARD DEVIATIONS REMAIN BLW AVERAGE...BUT
NOT TOO FAR OFF WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER. ONLY THE
DEEP SOUTH/SE U.S. HAS ANY TYPE OF MUCH BLW TEMPS DUE TO THE DEPTH
OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCRS OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW MRNG...FORMING
UPPER-LEVEL DECKS THAT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AND INCRS IN COVERAGE.
WI SITES WILL HAVE THE LONGEST DURATION OF CLR SKIES AND LGT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. KEAU HAS ALREADY REPORTED FOG AND IT IS NOT
UNREASONABLE FOR THE SAME TO HAPPEN AT KRNH SO HAVE INDICATED
DEGRADED CONDITIONS AT BOTH THOSE SITES. AM NOT EXPECTING FOG AS
THE MN SITES WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
WINDS. AS DECKS LOWER TMRW AFTN INTO TMRW EVE...MN TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS BEFORE 00Z TMRW EVE ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY -RA BEFORE 21Z. AM NOT LOOKING FOR PRECIP THAT WILL
DEGRADE VSBY BELOW 6SM...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KAXN WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PRODUCING THE HEAVIEST
RAIN. THE WINDOW FOR PRECIP IS NOT MUCH...POSSIBLY 4 TO 6 HOURS AT
MOST. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AFTER 02-04Z TMRW EVE...WITH CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR TMRW NIGHT.
KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TNGT THRU MOST OF TMRW. CLOUDS WILL
INCRS IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TMRW AND DECKS WILL STEADILY
LOWER. AM EXPECTING CEILINGS TO REMAIN WITHIN VFR RANGE THRU TMRW
AFTN...THEN WILL LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DROP INTO UPPER-MVFR RANGE
TMRW EVE AS -RA DEVELOPS. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILING TO DROP TO LESS
THAN 2 KFT. AHEAD OF THE COLD FROPA...LGT SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
TIMING OF THE FROPA WILL BE LATE MRNG TO EARLY AFTN...THEN WINDS
WILL SWING TO NW AND INCRS TO ARND 10 KT. COULD BE SOME GUSTINESS
TMRW AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDOW FOR MVFR
CONDS LOOKS TO BE APPROXIMATELY 21Z-04Z...POSSIBLY AN HOUR EITHER
WAY...THEN CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TMRW NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH CHC -RA OR -SN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS W 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS AND -RA. WINDS WNW 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR AND -RA/-SN TURNING TO -SN SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1259 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE INHERITED FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND BLENDED TO THE 05-06 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. AS OF
06 UTC...A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED FROM MINOT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH DICKINSON AND BAKER. PRECIPITATION WAS ALL IN
THE FORM OF RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA WITH SNOW BEING REPORTED AT BAKER. GIVEN A SURFACE
BASED WARM LAYER...WILL FOLLOW STANDARD THRESHOLDS OF 37 F FOR ALL
RAIN...34 F FOR ALL SNOW AND A MIX IN BETWEEN FOR PRECIPITATION
TYPE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF A BAROCLINIC
LEAF/CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUING IN EASTERN MONTANA...ALTHOUGH
INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING MAY BE UNDERWAY AS PREVIOUS
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO WARM. LOCAL/REGIONAL
RADAR IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN AND BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA. SURFACE COLD FRONT
NOW SLICING THROUGH HETTINGER TO SAINT ANTHONY AND JUST NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH A
DIVERGENCE FIELD ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA VIA THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN H3 80KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE WARM LAYER DEPTH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GREATER THAN
1000FT OFF THE SURFACE...SO EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT
LATER TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE HRRR AND
RAP AS THE PRIMARY MODELS FOR FORECASTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THE ABOVE IDEAS
HANDLED WELL...WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY/SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WORKING
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. LOCAL
AND REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND JUST GRAZING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR BEACH TO DICKINSON...TO
MCCLUSKY AND INTO HARVEY. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
WITH TIME. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ABOVE AREAL OF PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS
UPDATE...HAVE SLOWED UP THE PRECIPITATION AREA BY AN HOUR OR TWO
AND CHANGED THE WORDING FROM UNCERTAINTY TO AREAL COVERAGE. SHOWERS
WILL SHIFT FROM MONTANA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH/OMEGA FIELD MOVES ACROSS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS SCENARIO HANDLED WELL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH POST
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. SHORT TERM MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AND WILL UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MOST FORECAST
ELEMENTS. DID USE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER RAW GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...FROZEN PRECIPITATION WAS LIMITED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SYSTEM EXITS
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE DRYING THINGS OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DIRECTLY BEHIND THE POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
BAND. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WE COULD SEE A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. AT
THIS TIME KEPT ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST
AND FAR SOUTHWEST...CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ALOFT. QUITE A
BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL CANADA AND HUDSON BAY...THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING ON FRIDAY
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LINKED FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOVE H800.
EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...TO 25 TO 35 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. A H250 NORTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL JET OF AROUND 100 KNOTS IS PROGGED OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY SEE
THE HIGHER END OF THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGES.
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOOKING AT LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOWER 30S...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S...AND LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY NORTH WEST
WINDS...BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG - BUT STILL 15 TO
25 MPH. AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 40S. ANOTHER SHOT OF A CHANCE
OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...AND LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
AS OF 06 UTC...A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM KMOT THROUGH
KDIK AND KBHK. MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
BAND...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1149 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT. PUT 40 PERCENT
POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 60 PERCENT POPS ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH MS. RAIN HAD MOVED OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
AT EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL RAIN LATER TONIGHT. RADARS ALREADY SHOWED SCATTERED
AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF AR MOVING EASTWARD. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM MIDDLE TN INTO CENTRAL MS.
AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO MIDSOUTH...SOME ENHANCEMENT OF
RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
MS CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT...SO LEFT LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA.
REMAINDER OF THE ZONE FORECASTS / GRIDS LOOKS FINE WITH JUST SMALL
TWEAKS FOR TONIGHT.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013/
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
KCBM INTO LOUISIANA. THE RAIN SHIELD IS PROGRESSING TO THE EAST
AND NOW COVERS AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-55.
CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH THOUGH THE SUN IS
TEMPORARILY PEAKING OUT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. TEMPS
ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL AS MUCH COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH READINGS
HOVERING AROUND 60 WITH A LIGHT NNW WIND.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST. MEANWHILE A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT AS A PIECE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NOW MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX PUSHES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT THE POST FRONTAL RAIN
SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND OVERNIGHT AND PUSH ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST HRRR DEPICT THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE LESS BULLISH. WILL ALSO KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY. THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT ABOVE TEMP GUIDANCE DUE TO CLOUDS.
THURSDAY...KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS IN
THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL...IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
WITH PLEASANT CONDS. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT A SUNNY START TO FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE MISSOURI/KY BORDER. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A DRIER
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF REMAINING WELL TO THE SOUTH. WILL LEAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE PULLED IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD. EXPECT SOME CLEARING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND COOL WNW FLOW ALOFT.
A COUPLE OF WEAK REINFORCING FRONT PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT THEY ARE MOISTURE STARVED SO REMOVED
MENTION OF POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE THEN TURNING
COOLER BY MIDWEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A VERY COOL
AIRMASS PUSHING IN BY THU OR FRI OF NEXT WEEK.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE
OZARKS THIS MORNING...WITH CIGS MAINLY VFR AT MEM...JBR...AND
MKL. THOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG I-40.
FURTHER SOUTH AT TUP IFR CIGS ARE HOLDING STRONG JUST BEHIND A
STALLED FRONT IN WESTERN ALABAMA. BELIEVE THESE LOW CIGS WON`T
BEGIN IMPROVING UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT.
REMOVED LIGHT RAIN AT MEM AND MKL AND REPLACED WITH VCSH AS
COVERAGE APPEARS MORE ISOLATED. EXPECTING VFR AT ALL SITES FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKIES CLEARING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 6-8KTS AFTER
SUNRISE...AND FINALLY DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY LATE.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 55 69 49 73 / 40 10 10 10
MKL 53 67 40 70 / 40 20 10 10
JBR 51 68 43 72 / 40 10 10 10
TUP 57 70 47 72 / 50 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN ELONGATED TROUGH
WAS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING EAST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FEATURE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH IT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PAN
HANDLE AND WAS MOVING EAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG A BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS BAND BRINGING THE
RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PLACE IN MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THESE AREAS. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WITH IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL
TO AROUND -8 C BY MONDAY EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.0 TO -1.5 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FROM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF OFFERS THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS BRINGING A
POTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER BRINGING THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MVFR STRATUS DECK CLEARED THE TAF SITES EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
WINDS HAVE SINCE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS/LOWER LAYING LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FELL TO THE DEW
POINTS ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEARED...WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY BR ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI.
LOWER LEVEL VAD WINDS FROM AREA WSR-88DS APPEAR TO BE CONTAMINATED
BY MIGRATING BIRDS...WITH 925-850MB WINDS TURNING NORTH IN THE
25-30KT RANGE. THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY 00Z RA-OBS OR RECENT MDCRS
PLANE REPORTS. REAL WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOK TO BE MORE
WEST AT 10-15KTS. A BIT HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FORMATION...
BUT THE GRAY/COOL DAY FOLLOWED BY EVENING CLEARING WITH LOW TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS FAVORS RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING FOR BR/FG IN AT LEAST THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/
THU MORNING AND HAVE ADDED IFR CIG/VSBY IN BR TO KLSE 10-14Z.
ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING BF/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THU INTO THU EVENING. NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO SPREAD
SOME 4K-5K FT CIGS INTO THE TAF SITES THU EVENING...WITH A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE AROUND KRST AFTER 03Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE... 1. CLOUD
TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND IMPACT ON FOG/FROST FORMATION...AND 2. RAIN
CHANCES FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COUPLED WITH RAP 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN ONTARIO CANADA...THROUGH
WI/IA/NEB AND CO. STRATUS IS HOLDING STUBBORNLY ACROSS THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF THE GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO
SUFFERING AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH AND CLOUDS...CURRENTLY SITTING
IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD
CLEARING/THINNING OF THE STRATUS DECK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
WILL SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIVE INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR FOR AREAS/WIDESPREAD FROST.
ELSEWHERE...LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-UPPER
30S...SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FROST. HOWEVER...
HEADLINE-ABLE FROST IS NOT EXPECTED.
WILL THEN BE WATCHING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT PV-ADVECTION IN THE 700-300MB
LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FOR A BOUT OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE COLD FRONT THURSDAY BRING 925MB
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 8-11C RANGE. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM IS UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND PERIODIC SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A DRY DAY AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL/SURFACE RIDGE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50-55 DEGREE RANGE.
FOR SATURDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN PUSHING ANOTHER DEEP/COLD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY GIVEN STEEP 925-700MB
LAPSE RATES. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT AS ANOTHER WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. PLAN ON LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE 29-33 DEGREE RANGE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO NEAR THE 50 DEGREE MARK.
MODELS THEN DIVERGE A BIT FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN HANDLING
OF SYSTEMS RIPPLING ACROSS THE AREA IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODEL CONSENSUS GENERALLY YIELDS A 25-35 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH PRECIPITATION
TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING / MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING / AND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW
MIX.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME 925MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE -1 TO
-2C RANGE...DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECT TO BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 30S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED OCT 16 2013
MVFR STRATUS DECK CLEARED THE TAF SITES EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
WINDS HAVE SINCE BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS/LOWER LAYING LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FELL TO THE DEW
POINTS ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEARED...WITH PATCHY MVFR VSBY BR ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN INTO WESTERN WI.
LOWER LEVEL VAD WINDS FROM AREA WSR-88DS APPEAR TO BE CONTAMINATED
BY MIGRATING BIRDS...WITH 925-850MB WINDS TURNING NORTH IN THE
25-30KT RANGE. THIS NOT SUPPORTED BY 00Z RA-OBS OR RECENT MDCRS
PLANE REPORTS. REAL WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOK TO BE MORE
WEST AT 10-15KTS. A BIT HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FORMATION...
BUT THE GRAY/COOL DAY FOLLOWED BY EVENING CLEARING WITH LOW TEMP/DEW
POINT SPREADS FAVORS RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION. CONFIDENCE
INCREASING FOR BR/FG IN AT LEAST THE MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/
THU MORNING AND HAVE ADDED IFR CIG/VSBY IN BR TO KLSE 10-14Z.
ONCE ANY EARLY MORNING BF/FG WOULD LIFT/BURN OFF...GOOD VFR EXPECTED
THRU THU INTO THU EVENING. NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH LOOKS TO SPREAD
SOME 4K-5K FT CIGS INTO THE TAF SITES THU EVENING...WITH A FEW -SHRA
POSSIBLE AROUND KRST AFTER 03Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
656 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2013
...Updated Aviation section for 12Z TAFs...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
A potential vorticity maximum entering British Columbia early this
morning will move rapidly south-southeastward and approach the
western high plains late tonight. This system will bring mid level
moisture with it. Ahead of this system, a lead shortwave trough
progressing through eastern Montana this morning, was helping to
push a cold front into South Dakota as of 3 am. Behind the front
rain and snow were falling from northwestern South Dakota into
southwest North Dakota and southeastern Montana where temperatures
were between 33 and 36F. Mid level frontogenesis and warm
advection will develop toward Friday morning ahead of the
aforementioned potential vorticity maximum, with the tropospheric
column quickly saturating. Lapse rates will become moist-neutral
above the mid level frontal inversion around 700mb, which favors a
greater amount of lift for a given amount of forcing. Precipitation
in the form of rain will develop between 09 and 12z. Temperatures
may fall initially and then hold steady or slowly rise as cloud
cover increases. Then as evaporational cooling occurs due to
falling precipitation, temperatures will fall once again between
12 and 14Z Friday. The rain may change to snow for some places
after 12z Friday as the freezing level falls below 2000 ft AGL;
but this is covered in the long term section below. The low
temperature grid for Friday extends until 14z and then is when
lows may occur from Garden City north and west to Scott City and
Dighton.
In the nearer term, temperatures should have no trouble reaching
into the 60s today given strong insolation ahead of the cold front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
Much of the time and effort in the Long Term forecast went into the
Friday forecast...as there is a myriad of challenges...including
precipitation type! A northwest flow jet streak (which can be seen
on water vapor imagery and RAP analysis moving south out of Alberta)
will be the impetus for for out next precipitation event. As the
disturbance approaches Colorado by early Friday morning,
frontogenesis around 700mb will be on the increase from eastern
Colorado into northwestern Kansas. A fairly intense temperature
gradient will exist at this level (-10C at around North Platte, NE
to +2C at Amarillo, TX, per GEM and ECMWF models), so convergence
and deformation in the flow field will certainly result in fairly
decent lift to promote cloud and precipitation...including banded
precipitation. Moderate precipitation (in mainly the form of rain)
will develop and expand southeast during the morning hours with the
peak of the event affecting much of the southwest Kansas region by
midday with the 700mb frontogenesis and saturated RH centered from
Hugoton to Dodge to LaCrosse at 18z Friday. The GEM and ECMWF are in
very good agreement in their respective 42-hour forecast, so will be
following this "blend" for the official forecast.
Confidence is high that measureable precipitation will occur, so we
continued the uptrend in POPs well into the "Likely" range at 70
percent. A further increase into the "Categorical" range (80+) will
likely be needed if the trends continue in the upcoming morning
model solutions. The ECMWF and Canadian GEM models both show a
rather cold solution as well. Given the strong agreement between
the two models, see no reason why not to trust the progs. They both
show midday surface temperatures at the height of the precipitation
event in the 37 to 40F range with 850mb temperatures 0C to perhaps
-1C. Ideally, I would like to see a larger area of -1 to -2C at
850mb for higher confidence in snow given the time of year. There
will need to be some substantial cooling via vigorous ascent...in
combination with evaporative cooling...in order to get snowflakes
reaching the ground. That being said, it would certainly appear that
this is possible in the strongest band of precipitation...where
temperatures could briefly dip down to the mid 30s and some wet
snowflakes mix in with the rain. Will go ahead and add in a small
area of Rain OR Snow in the grids where hourly temperature is less
than or equal to 38F. Most areas, however, should see just a cold
rain.
The timing of the end of the precipitation event will be critical as
far as temperature recovery and MaxT is concerned late Friday. Areas
farther northwest (say, northwest of a Syracuse to Hays line), will
be seeing the precipitation ending earlier, and thus a better chance
at warming back up through the mid 40s. Areas southeast of a Liberal
to Dodge to Stafford line, however, may not see afternoon
temperatures above the lower 40s. As far as precipitation amounts
are concerned, we are looking at a potential widespread two to three
tenths of an inch, on average, across the southwest Kansas region.
The storm system will rapidly clear the area by Friday night with
westerly downslope low level winds in its wake. Lows in the lower to
mid 30s are expected as skies clear. Dewpoints will likely fall into
the mid to upper 20s across the western half of the region with the
downslope. Wind speeds will probably stay up just enough to prevent
a widespread freeze, however this will need to be watched closely
considering the temperature will not need to fall much from the
Friday max.
Saturday and beyond:
The larger scale general circulation regime will not change much at
all this weekend going into next week...with troughing across the
Upper Midwest region toward Hudson Bay and higher heights along the
West Coast. This will keep the Western Plains in a northwest flow
regime with downslope influence across western Kansas. The cold
surges should remain northeast of the southwest Kansas region,
however another weak front Late Sunday/early Monday will provide a
slight cool-down (back into the lower-mid 60s after a fairly decent
Sunday with highs around 70). After this front, the latest ECMWF
shows a potential break-down of the Hudson Bay longwave trough with
the mid level flow becoming more westerly (and weaker). This may be
temporary, though, with the longwave trough potentially reloading
from south-central Canada into the north-central CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
Light winds this morning will increase to around 12 to 14 knots
out of the north-northwest as a weak cold front pushes south early
this afternoon. A storm system approaching tonight will result in
the development of rain late tonight...with rain beginning to
overspread GCK, DDC, and HYS terminals as early as 09 or 10Z
Friday. Rain and low ceilings in the IFR/LIFR category will
prevail much of the day Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 40 44 34 / 0 30 70 10
GCK 64 38 46 33 / 0 50 70 0
EHA 65 38 45 33 / 0 30 50 0
LBL 67 41 45 34 / 0 30 70 0
HYS 64 39 46 35 / 0 60 70 0
P28 69 42 45 36 / 0 10 60 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR KSZ030-031-045-
046-064-065-078>080-088-089.
FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning FOR KSZ043-
044-061>063-074>077-084>087.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
537 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW TWO
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR
FORECAST CONCERNS IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT... DRIVING A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION AND KICKING OF SOME RAINFALL AS IT DOES
SO. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED NEAR
THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER... WHICH WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST AND
MAINLY WORK TO JUST INCREASE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS IT HELPS ENHANCE MID-UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION OVER THAT AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH SIMILAR TIMING OF FROPA AND
PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COALESCENCE OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... PRIMARILY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT GIVEN FRONT-RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND DPVA WORKING TOGETHER IN
THAT AREA. THALER-QG DIAGNOSTICS DO A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING THE
OVERALL AREA OF FORCING PER ITS 700MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES... AND THE
Q-G INDUCED PCPN IS FOCUSED BEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER... ENTIRE AREA HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PCPN AS THE FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A SEPARATE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PRECEDE THAT MAIN
BAND OF PCPN. THE HIGH RES MODELS... HOPWRF... HRRR... HIRESW NMM
AND ARW... AND SPCNMM... ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPARENT ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE ITSELF RISING AS COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION... ESSENTIALLY OFFSETTING THE WEAK NEGATIVE
PRESSURE ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RES MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTIVITY WHICH THEY EVENTUALLY GET DOWN CLOSER TO THE GROUND
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL.. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS
EASTERN AREA OF PCPN TO PRODUCE MUCH... AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GAP BETWEEN IT AND THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... PLAYED THINGS SIMPLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
TIME BEING SINCE THINGS HAVE OBVIOUSLY NOT YET DEVELOPED... AND JUST
ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW POPS TO SNEAK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA A BIT EARLIER TODAY... WITH THE HIGHER POPS STILL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE... STUCK
CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
GENERALLY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE IS A TREND OF
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE WESTERN U.S. BUT GENERALLY THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE ROCKIES
SENSIBLE WX. THIS PATTERN IS COLD FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
GENERALLY LOW CHC/S OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING OF SHRTWV/S AND DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL MASS FIELDS...ESPECIALLY MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
ONE OF THE MAIN TRENDS IS THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH MEANS A BETTER CHC OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY PAST SUNDAY AS 85H TEMPS FALL BLW -4C.
THE GROUND IS WAY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT IF
ANY OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND...OR NEXT WEEK HAVE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO GENERATE HEAVIER SNOW BURST...I COULD SEE A LIGHT
DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES. THIS IS TYPICALLY NOT THE NORM FOR
MID/LATE OCTOBER...ESPECIALLY DUE TO SIMILAR SYSTEMS IN THE PAST
WHICH WERE MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL.
ANOMALY EXTREMES OR STANDARD DEVIATIONS REMAIN BLW AVERAGE...BUT
NOT TOO FAR OFF WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER. ONLY THE
DEEP SOUTH/SE U.S. HAS ANY TYPE OF MUCH BLW TEMPS DUE TO THE DEPTH
OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. SOME IFR CONDITIONS... PARTICULARLY WITH
RESPECT TO CEILINGS... LOOK POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOUGH TO HIT THEM TOO HARD AT THIS POINT SINCE THEY
WILL BE DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. VISIBILITIES COULD
ALSO GET INTO THE IFR RANGE WITH ANY HEAVY PCPN THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. OVERALL.. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO SEE A 3 TO 5 HOUR
WINDOW OF MAINLY LIGHT PCPN... WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA LIKELY SEEING A BETTER CHANCE AT HEAVIER ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
KMSP...TAF REFLECTS EXPECTATIONS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL TREND. HOWEVER... TIMING OF CEILING/VISIBILITY CHANGES
COULD DIFFER BY +/- 3 HOURS OR SO FROM WHAT IS FORECAST GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PCPN.
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY COULD ALSO BE LOWER THAN INDICATED...
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY AS THINGS EVOLVE UPSTREAM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF -RA. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF -RA.
NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT DECREASING TO 5 KT
OR LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE WITH A
CHANCE OF -RA/-SN. EAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE
OF -RA/-SN. NORTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
645 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN ELONGATED TROUGH
WAS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING EAST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FEATURE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH IT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PAN
HANDLE AND WAS MOVING EAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG A BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS BAND BRINGING THE
RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PLACE IN MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THESE AREAS. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WITH IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL
TO AROUND -8 C BY MONDAY EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.0 TO -1.5 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FROM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF OFFERS THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS BRINGING A
POTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER BRINGING THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
FG HAS DEVELOPING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND HAS SLOSHED ACROSS KLSE
EARLY THIS MORNING ON FAVORABLE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST HOUR AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE FILTERED IN FROM
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT SURPRISE IF KLSE FLUCTUATED
BELOW 1SM FOR ANOTHER HOUR.
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...THICKENING AND LOWERING THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THEN NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME
-SHRA ARE EXPECTED MOSTLY POST FRONT AND NORTH...BUT THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE PCPN COULD SLIP ACROSS KRST/KLSE. SEE A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH...PER RH FIELDS/BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS/AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE
FORECAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION.....RIECK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY AFFECT
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB, BUT
BOTH MODELS WERE PRETTY CLOSE AND SO IS THEIR SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT.
A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE IS PREDICTED TO PASS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA WITH THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA GETTING INTO
THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET AND CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LLJ. ITS ALSO
THE BEST LOCALE FOR THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE. ELSEWHERE, A
WEAKER SHORT WAVE GENERATING LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA. THIS MUDDIES THE POP GRADIENT WITH WHAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE. THERE ALSO
MAY BE A POP OR QPF MINIMUM RIGHT ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR.
WE HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST AND ADDED A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER. THUNDER SHOULD BE ONGOING AS OF 3 PM OVER THE APPALACHIANS
AND IT WAS NOT. WE THUS DREW A LINE WHERE THERE WAS COMPLETE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND DID NOT GO WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE THUNDER
SOLUTIONS. THE MODELS ARE INCREASING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION AS
THE 500MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO COOL (850MB REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME). THIS IS DONE MOST EFFICIENTLY FAR NW AND IS LOCATION WHERE
SOME HRRR RUNS TODAY HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. GIVEN THE ARRIVAL TIME AND THE EXPECTED
FORMATION OF A PCPN INDUCED INVERSION BASED ON FCST SIMULATED
RADARS, SUSPECT THE WINDS WILL STRUGGLE SOMEWHAT TO MIX DOWNWARD.
BUT, ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS (NOW LOOKS FASTER BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z),
THE WRF-NMMB IS FORECASTING A PERIOD OF MIXING AS THE SOUNDING
DOES BECOME MORE ADIABATIC. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE GUSTY MENTION
(ALSO IN TAFS) FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS POST COLD FRONTAL.
GIVEN THE LATTER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG TO FORM AND ALSO THE
MIXING SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING. STAT GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A MORE FALL LIKE DAY ON FRIDAY, MORE SO DUE TO THE LOWER DEW POINTS
THAN A PRECIPITOUS DROP IN TEMPERATURES. A BREEZY MORNING IS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
THE KATABATIC FLOW AND DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD GET US CLOSE TO
ADIABATIC O 850MB MAKING STAT GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS LOOK QUITE
REASONABLE. FCST SOUNDINGS DO BRING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
CLOSE NORTHWEST AND COUPLED WITH BETTER CONDITIONS FOR CUMULUS IN
NY/PA, EXPECT SOME TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA AND THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
FREQUENT...BUT QUICKER MOVING WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. AFTER A COOL MORNING SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES LATER
SATURDAY WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE
THICKENING ACROSS THE AREA.
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS
NOT VERY ORGANIZED AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE 30 POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD AMT TO LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUN AND MON
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND A BIT
CLOSER TO NORMAL MON. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUN AND MON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT TUE...BUT THIS IS
JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH IS SLATED TO ARRIVE EITHER
TUE NIGHT OR WED. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WPC POPS/WX FOR THIS
SYSTEM WITH SLGT CHC POPS FOR TUE NIGHT AND DRY FOR WED. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS FORECASTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS CENTERED ON THIS EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THE LOW CIGS ARE JUST ABOUT GONE.
VFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE
5 TO 10 KTS. SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED IN EASTERN COUNTIES OF NJ
AND SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
FOR THIS EVENING, THIS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS FOR ALL THE TERMINALS. THE HIGHEST AND MOST CONFIDENT MVFR
CIG AND VSBY IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT KRDG AND KABE. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR PA AIRPORTS, NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE
ATTM.
ONCE THE CDFNT MOVES THROUGH, VFR CIGS OR VFR NO CIGS EXPECTED
WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF GUSTY WEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE CFP. PEAK
GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
THEN ON FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO
CIGS ARE FORECAST. SOME GUSTINESS SHOULD RETURN WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KT AND PEAK GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE LOW-20S ON FRIDAY. LESS WIND ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
MONDAY - TUESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SCA ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF
OUR MARINE AREA EXCEPT UPPER DELAWARE BAY. WE BUMPED UP THE STARTING
TIME SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS PER SLIGHTLY FASTER UPTICK IN WINDS. STRONG
WINDS SHOULD START CLOSE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CDFNT AND THEN
PERSIST IN TWO WAVES INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE MOST OF
THE SEAS WILL BE WIND GENERATED, THEY SHOULD ALSO DROP OFF BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS SOON AS WINDS DIMINISH.
OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE CAA
FLOW BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE WIND AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OUTLOOK PD.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING WEAKEN FRONT
WASHING OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LATEST RAP HAS INITIALIZED AREA OF SHOWERS WELL AND NEAR
TERM FORECAST WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD RAP AS SHOWERS DISSIPATE IN
THE ATL AREA BY 4-5PM AND OVER THE GVL-AHN AREA BY THIS EVENING.
WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP MENTION OF THUNDER FROM FORECAST AS
INSTABILITY LIMITED AS WEAK WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PUSHING OUT OF
FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. MODELS BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY MORNING. LATEST
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS CONTINUE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND EXPECT THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE DRYING WE CAN ALSO EXPECT SOME
COOL AREA STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS WELL. WILL COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND
SETTLED ON SCATTERING CLOUDS OUT THIS EVENING BUT DID NOT CLEAR THEM
OUT ALTOGETHER. BASED UPON HOLDING SOME CLOUDS IN HAVE GONE WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE OR SO OVERNIGHT WITH HIGHS
TOMORROW SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
ATWELL
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONSISTENT
INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WITH BE SE OF THE FORECAST AREA TO START
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM
SIMILAR WITH SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL GA
AND THE EUROPEAN IS MORE BROADLY SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY NIGHTS END. ALL IN ALL THIS SEEMS TO KEEP BEST
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA. GFS/NAM KEEPS THE BEST
MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA FOR SATURDAY WHILE
THE EUROPEAN SPREADS MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. EITHER WAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL GA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N GA. THE MOISTURE COMING N
DUE MAINLY TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE.
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA TO START SUNDAY
BUT WILL EXIT THAT AREA QUICKLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHICH BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE FAR
SE CWA WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SE CWA TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BDL/01
01
&&
AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PATCHY IFR WITH HEAVIER SHRA...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TAF SITES. SHRA WILL CONTINUE
IN ATL AREA SITES UNTIL 20Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND BY 00Z IN AHN.
MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT WILL SLOWLY SCT OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS
HINTING AT POSSIBLE COOL AIR STRATUS...BUT BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SCT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE W-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
ATWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 55 74 55 72 / 40 5 20 20
ATLANTA 56 73 59 71 / 40 5 10 20
BLAIRSVILLE 44 68 48 72 / 40 5 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 49 72 52 75 / 30 5 5 10
COLUMBUS 61 79 61 74 / 20 10 30 30
GAINESVILLE 53 69 56 74 / 40 5 5 20
MACON 59 77 61 74 / 20 10 40 30
ROME 49 73 50 75 / 10 5 5 10
PEACHTREE CITY 54 73 54 72 / 40 5 10 20
VIDALIA 65 82 65 77 / 10 30 50 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
200 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013/
UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO POPS/WEATHER BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES BASED UPON LATEST SATELLITE
LOOPS...WITH LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
GA. UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013/
SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS TO NOW RESIDE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THIS IS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WEST GEORGIA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR AS HAS BEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH LARGELY NON DIVERGENT FLOW NOTED AT UPPER LEVELS ON
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VERY LIGHT QPF FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ARRIVE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH...MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING QUICKLY AND PROVIDE AT
BEST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RESULT WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL
ADVERTISED FROM ROME THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLANTA METRO WITH
RAPIDLY DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH AS FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE...SPC THUNDER PROBS FROM
THE SREF INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED AND NOT ALLOW
STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN MOST CASES ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD STILL SHOW GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW FOR
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS ADIABATIC OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT STRONG UPPER SUPPORT
AND AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS.
DEESE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WITH BE SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM SIMILAR WITH SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL GA AND THE EUROPEAN IS MORE BROADLY
SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY NIGHTS END. ALL IN ALL
THIS SEEMS TO KEEP BEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA.
GFS/NAM KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN SPREADS MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EITHER WAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N GA. THE MOISTURE
COMING N DUE MAINLY TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE.
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA TO START SUNDAY
BUT WILL EXIT THAT AREA QUICKLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHICH BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE FAR
SE CWA WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SE CWA TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH PATCHY IFR WITH HEAVIER SHRA...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TAF SITES. SHRA WILL CONTINUE
IN ATL AREA SITES UNTIL 20Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF AND BY 00Z IN AHN.
MVFR CIGS BEHIND FRONT WILL SLOWLY SCT OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS
HINTING AT POSSIBLE COOL AIR STRATUS...BUT BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN SCT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE W-NW BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10KTS.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.
ATWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 54 74 54 / 50 40 5 20
ATLANTA 72 55 73 58 / 70 30 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 67 43 69 47 / 80 30 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 70 49 71 51 / 90 20 5 10
COLUMBUS 77 61 78 60 / 30 30 10 40
GAINESVILLE 70 52 72 55 / 80 40 5 10
MACON 80 57 76 60 / 30 40 10 50
ROME 70 48 71 49 / 70 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 74 52 74 53 / 60 30 5 10
VIDALIA 84 64 80 64 / 5 10 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1201 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO POPS/WEATHER BASED UPON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES BASED UPON LATEST SATELLITE
LOOPS...WITH LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL
GA. UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013/
.SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS TO NOW RESIDE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THIS IS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WEST GEORGIA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR AS HAS BEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH LARGELY NON DIVERGENT FLOW NOTED AT UPPER LEVELS ON
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VERY LIGHT QPF FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ARRIVE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH...MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING QUICKLY AND PROVIDE AT
BEST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RESULT WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL
ADVERTISED FROM ROME THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLANTA METRO WITH
RAPIDLY DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH AS FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE...SPC THUNDER PROBS FROM
THE SREF INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED AND NOT ALLOW
STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN MOST CASES ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD STILL SHOW GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW FOR
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS ADIABATIC OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT STRONG UPPER SUPPORT
AND AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS.
DEESE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WITH BE SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM SIMILAR WITH SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL GA AND THE EUROPEAN IS MORE BROADLY
SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY NIGHTS END. ALL IN ALL
THIS SEEMS TO KEEP BEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA.
GFS/NAM KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN SPREADS MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EITHER WAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N GA. THE MOISTURE
COMING N DUE MAINLY TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE.
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA TO START SUNDAY
BUT WILL EXIT THAT AREA QUICKLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHICH BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE FAR
SE CWA WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SE CWA TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BDL
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA BUT HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. CIGS HAVE BEEN
A DIFFERENT STORY...HAVING LITTLE TROUBLE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOST TERMINALS WITH JUST VFR CIGS THUS FAR. EXPECT TREND TO BE A
LOWERING OF THESE CIGS WITH MVFR BY 16Z. SECONDARY SHOT OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND THEN MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES BY 18Z AND LASTING 3 TO 4 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED REDUCTIONS TO VSBY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG TIMING AND -SHRA.
POTENTIAL. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 54 74 54 / 50 40 5 20
ATLANTA 72 55 73 58 / 70 30 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 67 43 69 47 / 80 30 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 70 49 71 51 / 80 20 5 10
COLUMBUS 77 61 78 60 / 30 30 10 40
GAINESVILLE 70 52 72 55 / 80 40 5 10
MACON 80 57 76 60 / 30 40 10 50
ROME 70 48 71 49 / 80 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 74 52 74 53 / 60 30 5 10
VIDALIA 84 64 80 64 / 5 10 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ATWELL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013/
..SHOWERS TODAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD IN THE LAST 24 HOURS TO NOW RESIDE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THIS IS QUICKLY BEING REPLACED BY A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WEST GEORGIA FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THIS
TROUGH HAS BEEN LIMITED THUS FAR AS HAS BEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH LARGELY NON DIVERGENT FLOW NOTED AT UPPER LEVELS ON
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT
RETURNS ON REGIONAL RADAR AND VERY LIGHT QPF FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO ARRIVE FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH...MODELS IN
AGREEMENT THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BE WEAKENING QUICKLY AND PROVIDE AT
BEST A GLANCING BLOW TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RESULT WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT FOR TODAY WITH CATEGORICAL
ADVERTISED FROM ROME THROUGH THE NORTHERN ATLANTA METRO WITH
RAPIDLY DECREASING POPS TO THE SOUTH AS FRONT APPROACHES THIS
EVENING.
AS FAR AS THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE...SPC THUNDER PROBS FROM
THE SREF INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE I85 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TRANSITIONING SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED AND NOT ALLOW
STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN IN MOST CASES ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD STILL SHOW GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL.
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER SOUTH GEORGIA FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW FOR
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AS ADIABATIC OMEGA FIELDS SUPPORT STRONG UPPER SUPPORT
AND AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS.
DEESE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT INDICATING THE COLD FRONT WITH BE SE OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GFS/NAM/EUROPEAN
SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GFS/NAM SIMILAR WITH SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE
BACK OVER MAINLY CENTRAL GA AND THE EUROPEAN IS MORE BROADLY
SPREADING MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY NIGHTS END. ALL IN ALL
THIS SEEMS TO KEEP BEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GA.
GFS/NAM KEEPS THE BEST MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA
FOR SATURDAY WHILE THE EUROPEAN SPREADS MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. EITHER WAY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF N GA. THE MOISTURE
COMING N DUE MAINLY TO THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE.
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED ALL BUT THE FAR SE CWA TO START SUNDAY
BUT WILL EXIT THAT AREA QUICKLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WHICH BEGINS TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE FAR
SE CWA WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAR SE CWA TO START THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BDL
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA BUT HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. CIGS HAVE BEEN
A DIFFERENT STORY...HAVING LITTLE TROUBLE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
MOST TERMINALS WITH JUST VFR CIGS THUS FAR. EXPECT TREND TO BE A
LOWERING OF THESE CIGS WITH MVFR BY 16Z. SECONDARY SHOT OF -RA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ALABAMA AND THEN MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES BY 18Z AND LASTING 3 TO 4 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED REDUCTIONS TO VSBY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIG TIMING AND -SHRA.
POTENTIAL. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.
DEESE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 74 54 74 54 / 50 40 5 20
ATLANTA 72 55 73 58 / 70 30 5 10
BLAIRSVILLE 67 43 69 47 / 80 30 5 5
CARTERSVILLE 70 49 71 51 / 80 20 5 10
COLUMBUS 79 61 78 60 / 30 30 20 40
GAINESVILLE 70 52 72 55 / 80 40 5 10
MACON 82 57 76 60 / 40 40 20 50
ROME 70 48 71 49 / 80 10 5 5
PEACHTREE CITY 74 52 74 53 / 60 30 5 10
VIDALIA 85 64 80 64 / 5 10 30 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DEESE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
306 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY BEFORE PASSING
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FRIDAY BEFORE A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF HRS OF ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUN
HELPED TEMPS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO REACH THE M-U70S. A FEW
LOCALES MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 80 BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF CLOUDS AND
LIGHT PRECIP ARRIVE. DEPENDING ON WHICH PORTION OF THE CWA...THERE
WILL BE SPOTS THAT GET LARGELY MISSED W/ THE INCOMING PRECIP -
OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. THE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
APPROACHING IN RANDOM WAVES AND BATCHES THAT CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
ALONG THE FRINGES. THE MORE SOLID WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL AFFECT THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS/NRN SHEN VLY AND ALSO ACROSS
LOWER SRN MD. IN BETWEEN...ONLY PERIODS OF LIGHT AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THE IN
BETWEEN AREAS...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE METRO AREAS - TO STAY MAINLY
DRY ONCE THIS CURRENT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES THRU.
A "KICKER" SHORTWAVE - A COMPACT MID-LEVEL FEATURE THAT IS CAUGHT
IN THE FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING WARM/COLD FRONTS - OF WHICH THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THRU LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED BATCHES OF MOD-HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
BUT VERY LOCALIZED AND ONLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AT BEST -
AND LIMITED TO THE NRN-MOST MD COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
A QUICK END TO THE PRECIP JUST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND
DRY/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN FROM BEHIND AND SPREADS E THRU THE
PREDAWN HRS. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO DROP 10-15 DEG BELOW THE PREV
NIGHT`S LOW TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES NE IT WILL SWEEP THE COLD FRONT
QUICKLY THRU THE REGION. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS FOR A TIME. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION
UNTIL MIDDAY...W/ A STIFF WLY BREEZE KEEPING TEMPS COOL - ONLY
REACHING THE M-U60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
FOR FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
USHERING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT SINCE THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAK AND IT WILL CONTAIN LITTLE MOISTURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BRINGING MORE DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS
INDICATES STRONGER LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW SINCE IT IS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE BECAUSE IF THE SURFACE LOW DOES
INTENSIFY QUICK ENOUGH...THEN RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVE BUT QUICKLY EXITING
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU AND SWITCHES WINDS TO
A GUSTY NWLY FLOW BY DAWN ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST. MORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM HIGH
PRESSURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALONG WITH LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 10-15KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN
SWITCH TO GUSTY NW AT 15-20KT FOR A FEW HRS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OF
THE WNW FOR THE REMAINDER OF FRI BUT ONLY PERIODICALLY GUSTING
TOWARD 20KT THRU THE MRNG AND SUBSIDING INTO THE AFTN FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD
OF THE HIGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS HAS BUILT UP THE ANOMALIES CLOSER TO 1.5FT. THAT
COMBINED WITH THE NEAR FULL MOON AND ITS HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
IS CAUSING MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FOR THE UPCOMING H.T. CYCLE
LATE THIS AFTN/EVE - OVER MOST DC/ALEX SITES AND THE MD CHES BAY.
A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING GUSTY NWLY WINDS THAT WILL
START TO CUT DOWN ON THESE POSITIVE ANOMALIES FOR FRI MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ007-
011.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ530>532-538>540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ533>537-541>543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GMS
PREV DISCUSSION...CAS/BJL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW TWO
FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FEATURE FOR OUR
FORECAST CONCERNS IS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THEN EAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT... DRIVING A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION AND KICKING OF SOME RAINFALL AS IT DOES
SO. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CENTERED NEAR
THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER... WHICH WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST AND
MAINLY WORK TO JUST INCREASE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS IT HELPS ENHANCE MID-UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION OVER THAT AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... WITH SIMILAR TIMING OF FROPA AND
PCPN ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COALESCENCE OF FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
SATURATION LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING... PRIMARILY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT GIVEN FRONT-RELATIVE UPGLIDE AND DPVA WORKING TOGETHER IN
THAT AREA. THALER-QG DIAGNOSTICS DO A NICE JOB OF DEPICTING THE
OVERALL AREA OF FORCING PER ITS 700MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES... AND THE
Q-G INDUCED PCPN IS FOCUSED BEST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER... ENTIRE AREA HAS A DECENT SHOT OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME
PCPN AS THE FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE MAIN AREA OF PCPN WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
WAVE... IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A SEPARATE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PRECEDE THAT MAIN
BAND OF PCPN. THE HIGH RES MODELS... HOPWRF... HRRR... HIRESW NMM
AND ARW... AND SPCNMM... ALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN TO DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A
QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE APPARENT ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE ITSELF RISING AS COLDER AIR
PUSHES INTO THE REGION... ESSENTIALLY OFFSETTING THE WEAK NEGATIVE
PRESSURE ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THAT TIME. 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA... ROUGHLY IN THE SAME AREA WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RES MODELS ARE GENERATING SOME MID-UPPER LEVEL
REFLECTIVITY WHICH THEY EVENTUALLY GET DOWN CLOSER TO THE GROUND
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL.. WOULD NOT EXPECT THIS
EASTERN AREA OF PCPN TO PRODUCE MUCH... AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GAP BETWEEN IT AND THE MAIN BAND OF PCPN ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... PLAYED THINGS SIMPLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
TIME BEING SINCE THINGS HAVE OBVIOUSLY NOT YET DEVELOPED... AND JUST
ALLOWED FOR SOME LOW POPS TO SNEAK INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA A BIT EARLIER TODAY... WITH THE HIGHER POPS STILL HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE... STUCK
CLOSE TO THE GOING FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
GENERALLY THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL BE CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT
WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE IS A TREND OF
THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR OF
THE WESTERN U.S. BUT GENERALLY THIS WILL ONLY AFFECT THE ROCKIES
SENSIBLE WX. THIS PATTERN IS COLD FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT
GENERALLY LOW CHC/S OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO TIMING OF SHRTWV/S AND DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODEL MASS FIELDS...ESPECIALLY MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
ONE OF THE MAIN TRENDS IS THE THERMAL PROFILE WILL FALL OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH MEANS A BETTER CHC OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW...ESPECIALLY PAST SUNDAY AS 85H TEMPS FALL BLW -4C.
THE GROUND IS WAY TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT IF
ANY OF THE SYSTEMS OVER THE WEEKEND...OR NEXT WEEK HAVE ENOUGH
ENERGY TO GENERATE HEAVIER SNOW BURST...I COULD SEE A LIGHT
DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES. THIS IS TYPICALLY NOT THE NORM FOR
MID/LATE OCTOBER...ESPECIALLY DUE TO SIMILAR SYSTEMS IN THE PAST
WHICH WERE MUCH COLDER...BUT STILL DID NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL.
ANOMALY EXTREMES OR STANDARD DEVIATIONS REMAIN BLW AVERAGE...BUT
NOT TOO FAR OFF WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER. ONLY THE
DEEP SOUTH/SE U.S. HAS ANY TYPE OF MUCH BLW TEMPS DUE TO THE DEPTH
OF THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
COLD FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH AXN AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESE
THROUGH THE AFTN/EVE HRS. MAIN BAND OF -RA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS. WHEN THE HEAVIER RA (CURRENTLY IN E SD)
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY AXN/STC/RWF...EXPECTED CIGS TO DROP
DOWN TO IFR LEVELS WHILE VSBYS STAY GENERALLY ABOVE 4SM. -RA WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TAF SITES AROUND 00Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS DIPPING
DOWN INTO MVFR LEVELS LATER IN THE NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
GO LOWER OUT EAST...WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE
FURTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS OR GOING TOO LOW IN
THERMS OF CIGS. VFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD AS WEAK (AND BRIEF) SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN.
KMSP...-RA TO BEGIN AROUND 22Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THEN HEAVIER SHOWERS COMING IN AFT 01Z. CAPPED CONDITIONS
AT MVFR FOR NOW...BUT CONDS COULD DIP INTO THE IFR RANGE FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT BASED ON DEVELOPING CONDS IN FAR W MN. CLEARING
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE RAIN ENDS WITH VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN SLACKEN A BIT ON FRI WHILE MAINTAINING A WESTERLY
COMPONENT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE
OF -RA. WEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF -RA.
NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KT DECREASING TO 5 KT
OR LESS.
SUNDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE WITH A
CHANCE OF -RA/-SN. EAST WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE
OF -RA/-SN. NORTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NORTHWEST.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JCA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
322 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES WILL PREVAIL
OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME WARMING EXPECTED.
FOR TONIGHT...FIRST IN SEVERAL WAVES WILL BE TRACKING FM DAKOTAS
INTO MINNESOTA SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT
BEFORE PROBABLY DECREASING AFT 06Z. 18Z RAP AND 12Z 4KM WRF AND
SOME HOP WRF MEMBERS SUGGESTED SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP COULD CLIP
NERN ZONES EARLY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING TOWARD KS BY MORNING COULD
SPREAD SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD SRN AND ESPECIALLY SWRN ZONES
BY MORNING. THE VARIABLE CLOUDS...SOME WIND AND INITIALLY MODEST
DWPTS WL LEAD TO KEEPING MOST LOWS A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO FRIDAY...KEPT IN SMALL POPS EXTREME SOUTH DUE TO
SRN WAVE...ALTHOUGH APPEARS BULK OF ANY PRECIP COULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH. ALSO SHARP MID LVL TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO ERN NEBRASKA
TOWARD 00Z COULD ALLOW SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS H5 TEMPS IN
MINUS UPPER 20S C MOVE OVER AREA. SPREAD SMALL CHANCES A BIT
FARTHER S. SOMEWHAT DISCOUNTED NAM IN DOWNSLOPE MOISTURE LACKING
FLOW BUT THIS COULD FACILITATE FUTURE CHANGES. DID TRIM TEMPS BACK
A FEW DEGREES DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THEM ON HIGH SIDE
OF GUIDANCE.
AFTER TROUGH PASSES FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARMING SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY.
KEPT FORECAST DRY IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT SOME NEED IN LATER FORECASTS. TRENDED MOST MAX
TEMPERATURES UPWARD BOTH DAYS TO REFLECT FORECAST H85 TEMPS...BUT
DIDN/T MIX TO THAT DEPTH DUE TO POSSIBLE CLOUDS.
CHERMOK
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR EAST WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DROP
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE COLD AIRMASS WILL
REACH...HOWEVER THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE COLD FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. SOME WEAK
RECOVERY BY THURSDAY MAY BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
KERN
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK.
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO AREA AT 18Z WITH KOFK BEHIND THE
FRONT ALREADY. MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO KOMA
AND KLNK THROUGH 23Z WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. MODELS DO NOT HANDLE SKY CONDITIONS VERY
WELL SO MAY HAVE TO EXTEND MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVENING.
FOBERT
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
352 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD SEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE RESULTING IN MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VISIBLE SATELLITE
REVEALS A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUDINESS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/LOWER
APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSES REVEAL A RATHER POTENT
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SFC CYCLONE EVIDENT IN LATE AFTERNOON
SFC ANALYSIS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. LOOK FOR A
MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AS
BOTH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND
QPF WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. THERE`S PLENTY OF SOURCES OF
LARGE-SCALE LIFT AVAILABLE...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE
DIFFLUENT/FAVORABLE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT 300 MB
UPPER- LEVEL JET BETWEEN 03-10Z...AS WELL AS IN THE MIDST OF
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM APPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-KT LOW-LEVEL JET
RESULTS IN MODEL PW VALUES AREAWIDE BETWEEN 0.75"-1.25" OVERNIGHT
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. ALL
THAT BEING SAID...POPS DO INCREASE STEADILY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z WITH
CATEGORICAL RAIN IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 03-09Z WITH A TAPER DOWN
IN POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. QPF REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECASTS...RANGING FROM AROUND A THIRD TO
A HALF-INCH WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIALLY A BLEND TOWARD SOME OF THE WARMER
MOS GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S UNDER MOSTLY
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AND SKY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN GETS ADVECTED OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND SO HAVE OPTED FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND +3C HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LOWS ON FRIDAY TO DROP TO THE MID 30S IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE MID 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS.
A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS BY
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
COUPLE OF POORLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POPS. POPS INCREASE
TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE COOLING TO THE POINT WHERE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST
SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A QUARTER-
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND ANY ACCUMULATION ON SOME OF
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A
LIGHT COATING. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOW 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE
ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. LOCATION OF THIS TROF WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES GO...THEREFORE LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR IMPULSES. AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET FOR SNOW
SHOWERS TO MIX IN. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED WITH ANY
PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE...THOUGH AFTER A FEW IMPULSES BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW...HIGHER PEAKS COULD BE LEFT WITH A WHITE COATING. MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE
MENTIONED ON TUESDAY WITH BEST CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION AND
BEST MODEL AGREEMENT AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE
NORMAL THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE PERIOD. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROF
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z FRIDAY WITH SCT-BKN
035-080. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SSW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BY 00Z FRI AS RAIN/LOW CLDS BUILD
INTO AREA. LGT RAIN BEGINS AROUND 00Z-02Z AND REMAINS THRU 12Z
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS N AND EAST OF AREA. VSBY IN RAIN/FG MAINLY
3-6SM W/ MPV/SLK SHIFTING LWR AT TIMES BY 06Z FRI TO LESS THAN
2SM. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN010-030. WINDS SSW 5-10KTS...
TRANSITIONING TO LGT/VAR FROM THE SW TO NE AS RAIN BEGINS. RAIN
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08-11Z.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...THOUGH SOME BR MAY REMAIN THROUGH
12Z. WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH MAINLY BROKEN
CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES...AS LOW AS IFR...IN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
340 PM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEPARTS EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD SEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE IN MANY
AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE RESULTING IN MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...CHANGEABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS VISIBLE SATELLITE
REVEALS A BROAD SHIELD OF CLOUDINESS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/LOWER
APPALACHIANS. WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANALYSES REVEAL A RATHER POTENT
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK SFC CYCLONE EVIDENT IN LATE AFTERNOON
SFC ANALYSIS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. LOOK FOR A
MARKED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AREAWIDE EARLY THIS EVENING AS BOTH
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE PUSH
NORTHEASTWARD.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND QPF
WITH THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. THERE`S PLENTY OF SOURCES OF
LARGE-SCALE LIFT AVAILABLE...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE
DIFFLUENT/FAVORABLE POLEWARD EXIT REGION OF A 100 KT 300 MB
UPPER-LEVEL JET BETWEEN 03-10Z...AS WELL AS IN THE MIDST OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM APPROACHING NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY 35-KT LOW-LEVEL JET RESULTS IN
MODEL PW VALUES AREAWIDE BETWEEN 0.75"-1.25" OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...POPS DO INCREASE STEADILY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z WITH CATEGORICAL
RAIN IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 03-09Z WITH A TAPER DOWN IN POPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. QPF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
PRIOR FORECASTS...RANGING FROM AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF-INCH WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VERMONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIALLY A BLEND TOWARD SOME OF THE WARMER MOS
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S UNDER MOSTLY
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT THURSDAY...STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WINDING DOWN AND SKY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN GETS ADVECTED OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...AND SO HAVE OPTED FOR MORE CLOUD COVER AS
WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND +3C HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN
THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS ON
FRIDAY TO DROP TO THE MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST
KINGDOM TO THE MID 40S IN THE WARMER VALLEYS.
A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL CONUS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE OF POORLY DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND POPS. POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE
COOLING TO THE POINT WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY A QUARTER-INCH OR LESS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND
ANY ACCUMULATION ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A LIGHT COATING. HIGHS SATURDAY GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOW
40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY
NIGHT ON INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY REMAINS THE SAME AS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MDL RUNS. BROAD
UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND SHIFT EAST SLOWLY THRU WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS
TIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL WORK AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
AND SWING THRU THE CWA. THERE CONTINUE TO BE MDL DIFFERENCES AS
TO TIMING OF EACH SHORTWAVE THRU THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED WHEN THE TROUGH STARTS ITS SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. BULK OF PRECIP INITIALLY WITH EACH SYSTEM
WILL START OVER N NY BFR SHIFTING EAST THRU THE CWA AND EXITING.
HAVE ADJUSTED HIR POPS FOR THESE AREAS FOR FIRST PORTION OF THE
EXTENDED...TAPERING DOWN TO CHANCE/SL CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AS MDL UNCERTAINTY INCREASE ON TRACK OF SYSTEM AS
WELL AS TIMING ARRIVAL. CAA WILL WORK INTO AREA ON BACKSIDE OF
EACH EXITING SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR HIR ELEV(ABV 2000FT) TO SEE
CHANGE TO LIGHT -SW FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNGT PERIOD. OVERALL...HIR
SPOTS COULD SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW WHEN ALL SAID AND DONE.
EXPECTING -RW DURING THE DAY. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TAPERING
TO 40S BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNGT LOWS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F IN CVLY.
COLDEST TEMPS IN DACKS AND NE VT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THRU 00Z FRIDAY WITH SCT-BKN
035-080. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SSW WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BY 00Z FRI AS RAIN/LOW CLDS BUILD
INTO AREA. LGT RAIN BEGINS AROUND 00Z-02Z AND REMAINS THRU 12Z
FRIDAY AS SYSTEM LIFTS N AND EAST OF AREA. VSBY IN RAIN/FG MAINLY
3-6SM W/ MPV/SLK SHIFTING LWR AT TIMES BY 06Z FRI TO LESS THAN
2SM. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN010-030. WINDS SSW 5-10KTS...
TRANSITIONING TO LGT/VAR FROM THE SW TO NE AS RAIN BEGINS. RAIN
WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM 08-11Z.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR...THOUGH SOME BR MAY REMAIN THROUGH
12Z. WINDS OUT OF THE WSW AGAIN TOMORROW WITH MAINLY BROKEN
CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VARIETY OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES...AS LOW AS IFR...IN PERIODS OF RAIN WITH NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS
ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/NEILES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
935 AM EDT THU OCT 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG A HUNTSVILLE AL
TO JUST WEST OF CROSSVILLE TN TO NEAR LONDON KY LINE AT 13Z. SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE SCATTERED OUT THIS MORNING...BUT NEW
DEVELOPMENT WAS NOTED WEST OF THE FRONT.
LATEST RUC MODEL SHOWS INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PASSES ACROSS TODAY. SOME WEAK POSITIVE
OMEGA WITH THE FRONT AS WELL...AND THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS.
12Z OHX AND RNK SOUNDINGS WERE SATURATED FROM SURFACE THROUGH AROUND
600 MBS...WITH VERY LITTLE SURFACE BASED CAPE INDICATED. SURFACE
BASED POSITIVE CAPE PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 500 J/KG BY 18Z TO 21Z
TODAY...AIDED BY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN AXIS OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY THROUGH 18/00Z. THUS...I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE MENTIONED IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS.
PLAN TO DO A LATE MORNING UPDATE AND FRESHEN ALL PRODUCTS...ALTHO
HOURLY CONDITIONS MATCHING CLOSE TO GRIDS...AND MAX TEMP FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 47 70 48 70 / 90 10 0 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 68 45 67 45 69 / 80 10 0 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 44 67 45 69 / 80 10 0 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 42 65 42 67 / 80 20 0 10 20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AN ELONGATED TROUGH
WAS STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING EAST. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
FEATURE THAT IMPACTS THE REGION BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR WITH IT.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN
ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE NEBRASKA PAN
HANDLE AND WAS MOVING EAST.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLIDE
EAST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG A BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY
CLOSE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS BAND BRINGING THE
RAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PLACE IN MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...SO HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THESE AREAS. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THEN DIGS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR WITH IT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL
TO AROUND -8 C BY MONDAY EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.0 TO -1.5 BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW TO THE AREA FROM
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF OFFERS THE FASTEST SOLUTIONS BRINGING A
POTENT TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS SLOWER BRINGING THIS FEATURE THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013
CURRENTLY WATCHING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH EASTERN MN
INTO WESTERN IA. LOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...FINALLY EXITING EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERIORATE
INTO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHRA ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF KRST AFT
03Z AND KLSE BY 05Z. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER FRIDAY
MORNING...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR AT KRST
15Z. IN ADDITION...PLAN ON WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTINESS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT KRST INTO THE 15 TO 25KT RANGE.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM....WETENKAMP
AVIATION...DAS